Macro Strategy Views: Recent Episodes
Macro Strategy Views
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Host Thomas Harr will discuss weekly market views, and deep dive into a selected theme together with his co-host of the week.
China has seen a sharp rebound after the successful opening of its economy in spring last year. Now its economy is slowing as the effect of the stimulus is fading. In this podcast we discuss the nature of the slowdown and what it could mean for the rest of the global economy and the financial markets. We also discuss the shift in geopolitical risk between China and the US with the Biden administration in office.
Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst and China expert Allan Von Mehren
In today’s podcast, we zoom in on the biggest tail-risk to the global economy in our view: If vaccines turn out not to be as effective as expected in the face of new virus mutations, then it is likely restrictions will have to remain in place for much longer than ‘just’ this spring. In our view, the implications of this scenario could easily be a fall in global equity markets of 15-20%, as the global economy could face another ‘lost year’, even if governments and central banks try to step in and support economies again.
Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior US, UK and COVID-19 analyst Mikael Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.
In today’s podcast, we zoom in on Europe. In 2020, Europe lived up to its old mantra of never wasting a crisis, undertaking far-reaching measures not only on the ECB side but also with regard to national and EU level fiscal policies in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Now one year later, we take stock of the current state of play in Europe: We assess the impact of the second COVID-19 wave, new leadership in Germany’s biggest party CDU, a government crisis in Italy and looming discussions of economic policies on the other side of the crisis. We conclude that both the European Commission and the ECB will go very carefully on a potential exit and see yields in Europe trading in a tight range in 2021, even as we believe US yields should rise further from their current levels.
Head of Global Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist on ECB and Fixed Income Research Piet Christiansen.
In today’s podcast, we discuss the implications of last week’s surprising Democratic Party victory in Georgia. Near term, we expect a bigger fiscal support package, a stronger US recovery in 2021 and the Fed’s current stance to be challenged, as well as a stronger US dollar later in the year, on the back of the Democratic Party victory. We also discuss why the attack on the US Congress and political uncertainty in general had little impact on financial markets.
Head of global macro research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior US analyst, Mikael Milhøj , and Senior FX Strategist, Lars Sparresø Merklin.
In today’s podcast, we discuss our 2021 outlook across macro, FX and equity markets. We expect the recovery to gain speed from Q2 and EUR/USD to head lower in 2021, while we believe higher US rates will not derail the equity rally. We also discuss why we believe Norges Bank will hike interest rates in 2021.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, Chief Strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
In today’s podcast, we discuss the current state of the Brexit negotiations, what will happen in the event of a deal or no deal and why negotiations may start again within the next year if there is no deal. We argue that there is a decent chance of a Brexit deal within the next week – hear why. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst and Brexit expert Mikael Olai Milhøj.
In today’s podcast, we outline our framework for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) credit risk in corporate bonds in light of the EU taxonomy. We discuss physical and transition risks in the pulp and paper, shipping and real estate sectors. We discuss the winner’s curse in shipping and how long-term physical risks in pulp and paper and real estate may turn into short-term risks. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of Credit Research in Sweden Louis Landeman, Senior Norwegian Credit Analyst Bendik Engebretsen and Senior Swedish Credit Analyst David Andrén
In today’s podcast, we discuss the prospects for new vaccines emerging and the risk of a US lockdown. We view the risk to the global economy as much more balanced now, with a possible upside twist, despite it being likely the US will need to impose tougher restrictions to contain its third wave. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren and Senior Analyst Mikael Olai Milhøj.
In today’s podcast we discuss what Biden’s win means for the USA’s relationship with China and what implications it has for economic policies. We discuss his transatlantic approach to China, the size of the COVID-19 package, and whether it will come before the end of the year. We also discuss the relief rally in equities and how much further it can go on from here.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by US economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, and equity strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.
In today’s podcast, we discuss the partial lockdowns in Europe and the US election. Europe is likely to contract in Q4 given the blow to certain service sectors but we believe that Europe’s downturn in Q4 will be much milder than that in Q2. If we have a divided US government, the COVID-19 stimulus package would be smaller. There is a significant risk that we will not know the next US president until a few days after the election, while it is very likely we will know the Senate election results on Wednesday morning CET. There is a risk of a contested result if the election is close but any election disputes have to be solved by 8 December. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by euro area economist Aila Mihr and US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj.
Today, we discuss why restrictions in Europe are likely to remain in place for many months but why the bar for broad lockdowns similar to those in the spring is high. We also discuss why fiscal and monetary policy are set to remain stimulative for a long time and how policymakers will have to factor inequality and crisis persistence into their reactions.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Economist Denmark Las Olsen.
Today, we discuss why we think the EU and UK are moving closer to each other in the negotiations, the difference between a deal and no-deal and the implications for financial markets. We also discuss the medium-term implications for the UK economy, whether the UK could become Europe’s Singapore and the implications of the US election.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst and UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj.
Today, we discuss the scenarios for the global economy and what they imply for equities. We argue that growth will slow and risks are skewed on the downside but a possible double-dip recession in 2021 could ease in the later part of the year due to new stimulus and support from China. The balance of risks is for equities to head higher.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of Macro and EM Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
Today, we discuss the US election and the implications for the economy and equities. We discuss the degree to which a united democratic government would lead to a demand boost and how this compares with a republican sweep. We discuss the implication of the election for the US’s approach to China and how we believe it will affect global equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomas.
Today, we discuss why we expect Norges Bank to lift the rate path this week, signalling a full rate hike by Q2 22. We argue why, from a risk-reward perspective, it makes sense to position for higher short-end and belly rates, while any NOK strength is likely to be short lived. We also discuss whether the Fed’s FAIT has implications for the Riksbank. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Chief Economist for Sweden Michael Grahn.
Today, we discuss what could drive much higher inflation rates over coming years. We discuss a fast recovery, the Fed’s change and its influence on the ECB, monetary financing of expansionary fiscal policies and a political shift to a progressive left in the US and Germany. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by US economist Mikael Olai Milhøj, Euroland economist Aila Mihr and ECB economist and FI strategist Piet Christiansen.
Today, we discuss whether the volatility experienced in particularly equity markets late last week is set to continue. Positioning and retail involvement suggest that more is in store but the macro-drivers - vaccine developments and Fed action – for the reflation theme to continue are still very much in place. We discuss the rotation dynamics in equities and the primary market’s influence on the secondary outlook in credit.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen and Credit Strategist Mark Naur.
The phasing out of COVID-19 support measures is set to affect people and companies in the Nordic countries. We discuss whether the end of support schemes will lead to higher unemployment rates and bankruptcies in the region.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and is joined by Chief Economist Las Olsen and Head of Scandi Strategy Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
The reflation theme has dominated financial markets in recent months, driving stocks higher, depressing credit risk premiums and weakening the USD. However, over the past week inflation expectations dipped, the USD stabilised and nominal yields drifted lower. We discuss whether the reflation theme is now dead, or whether this is just a pause before the next acceleration. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior FX Strategist Lars Merklin and Credit Analyst Mark Naur.
The reflation theme is broadening, with higher yields and steeper curves. However, is the recent financial performance as good as it gets and how do future risks compare with current market pricing and thereby expected return? We argue that equities are not expensive and discuss the link between interest rates and equities. The vaccine and the Fed are set to drive risk premiums and returns across assets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen
The market recovery is extraordinarily fast but this is also a very different crisis. The economic rebound is much faster than during previous crises, which is due to the nature of the crisis and the policy stimulus. We discuss whether it is time to change the crisis narrative and how we may think about the USD.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Strategist Jens Nærvig Pedersen.
This week, we discuss a systematic framework for analysing investments, which distinguishes secular trends from tactical asset views. In our view, the USD is a key driver of asset returns, which is often overlooked. We discuss whether we are at a secular turning point for the USD and what this implies for asset performance.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt and Senior Analyst Lars Sparresø Merklin.
This week marked a clear worsening in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Texas, Florida and Arizona. Meanwhile, over the past month the global recovery has been faster than most people thought likely one or two months ago. The Nordics are outperforming the world, led by Norway and Denmark. We discuss the risk of a US-led virus outbreak derailing the recovery and the risk for the Nordics Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren and Chief Economist Las Olsen.
The Fed learned the importance of explicit and aggressive forward guidance at an early stage in the GFC, tied either to specific dates or to economic outcomes. The current forward guidance is weak as it is neither explicit nor aggressive. Therefore, the Fed is eager to strengthen forward guidance. The guidance could target inflation above 2%, and involve asset purchases, the Fed funds rate and possibly yield curve control (YCC). It could cap 3Y UST yields at 0.25% with the purpose of reinforcing guidance on forward rates and asset purchases. We discuss the gains and pitfalls of such a policy.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Analyst Mikael Olai Milhøj and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen.
The market is likely to price a higher chance of a fast recovery due to non-farm payroll, German stimulus and the ECB. We believe that investors should focus on opportunities where 1) solid fundamentals support an extension of the current rally (for example we have just lowered our target on short EUR/NOK to 10.00 from 10.50, and 2) there are catch-up opportunities, such as eurozone banking stocks where risk premiums are still elevated. We discuss the ECB, equity markets and EUR/USD. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief ECB strategist Piet Christiansen, Senior equity strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen and Senior FX Strategist Lars Merklin.
For the past couple of months, developments in COVID-19 have driven economies and markets. However, we are starting to see geopolitical risks returning, with US-China relations reaching a new stage following Beijing’s announcement of a new national security law in Hong Kong. We discuss the next legs in the US-China technological and trade war.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren.
Since the dark period in March, when financial markets capitulated, volatility has eased tremendously and risky assets have rallied. The question is whether risk premiums are now too depressed, or whether the forceful actions taken by central banks in particular will extend the risk rally as recovery takes hold. We discuss equity and credit risk premiums in light of yield levels, cash flow uncertainty and Europe/US divergence.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Senior Equity Strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, and Credit Strategist, Mark Thybo Naur.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the webinar we had last week with Professor Richard Baldwin, in which we discussed globalisation and automation in light of the COVID-19 crisis. Mr Baldwin argued that globalisation will accelerate in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak and that over the long run inequality will fall. We discuss the implications for inflation and the future of work.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of FX Research Christin Tuxen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the political consequences of the crisis. The focus is shifting towards how the crisis will be more disruptive politically than most people expect. An escalation of geopolitical conflicts, such as US-China tensions, may be a trigger for a more prolonged crisis. We discuss the unstable equilibrium in the eurozone, where there are political risks that the ECB will suddenly hesitate and anti-EU sentiment on the back of the crisis.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss risk sharing and fiscal dominance in the eurozone, monetary financing and the next euro crisis. The lack of risk sharing in the EU and the explosion in government debt require monetary financing. The COVID-19 crisis is a real world experiment of MMT in the eurozone and elsewhere. We outline what we expect from EU institutions and the ECB.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Piet Christiansen and Senior Analyst Aila Mihr.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we analyse the latest coronavirus numbers, the implications for the global economy and easing market volatility. Over the weekend, there has been improvement in both the US and Europe in terms of the virus numbers. It looks to us as though European countries outside Italy are on track for a peak early this week and the US by the end of the week.
Meanwhile, we are seeing an improvement in market sentiment following very aggressive central bank easing. We expect equities to head gradually higher over the coming three to six months.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the recession being extraordinarily deep and much deeper than the worst months in the global financial crisis in 2008-09. However, there is still a chance that the recession will be short-lived. The key will be (1) how the virus numbers develop and (2) the political reaction function in terms of when politicians decide to end the lockdowns.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren and Chief Economist Las Olsen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the recession and the lack of appropriate policy responses. With the exception of the Fed, we believe policymakers in Europe and US have not reacted forcefully enough to support their economies. Near term, the expected increase in virus numbers would be a substantial hit to the global economy. We discuss the expected length of the slowdown and what we will be looking out for.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the price war in the oil market and the lack of an adequate policy response to the COVID-19 crisis. We believe that oil prices may fall to the January 2016 low if Saudi Arabia scales up production. The COVID-19 crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better, as the policy response remains inadequate.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the base case, best case and worst case for the global economy. We expect a sharp global slowdown near term but stabilisation and recovery later in the year. However, the risk of a global recession has increased sharply and near-term policy responses are key. Short term, risks are skewed on the downside for equities.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren, Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen and Senior Equity Strategist Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we argue that investors should treat foreign exchange as an asset class and we discuss a framework for analysing FX markets. This makes a lot of sense for, in particular, real money funds to manage currencies increasingly actively. Over the short to medium term, capital flows determine exchange rates.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Head of FX Research Christin Tuxen.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the outlook for the US dollar and equities.
In our view, the US dollar will stay strong until the US economy enters a recession. This has important cross-asset implications, particularly for the oil price, equities and interest rates.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by our Chief Equity Strategist, Mattias Sundling, and our cross asset strategist, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the outlook for respectively credit markets and Norway in light of recent events. We expect HY credit spreads to narrow further on a constructive macro backdrop and positive equity sentiment. We believe the market is too negative on Norway as the tight labour market and high wage growth will support higher short-end rates and a stronger currency.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Mark Naur, Credit Strategist, and Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, Norway strategist.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the implications of the coronavirus for the Chinese economy, global economy and markets. We expect a sharp fall in Chinese data in coming months followed by recovery. Asia will be hit hard with smaller implications for Europe and US. We expect equities will stabilise over the coming months before heading higher.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Allan Von Mehren, China economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, US economist, and Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, equity strategist.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the implications of the coronavirus for the Chinese economy, the risk of a US-Europe trade war and the market implications.
In our view, the Chinese economy is likely to take a hit and GDP could be reduced by up to one percentage point near term. Europe is picking up but a Chinese slowdown and the risk of a US-Europe trade war could weigh on sentiment.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Chief Analyst on China Allan von Mehren, our Euroland economist Aila Mihr and FX strategist Lars Merklin join him
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the implications of the US-China trade deal, the sustainability of the global recovery and the ECB’s likely response. Europe may lose out with China buying US goods, but the improvement in the global cycle will dominate. We discuss the details of the ECB’s forward guidance and the strategic review. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Analyst on China, Allan von Mehren, and our ECB strategist, Piet Christiansen , join him.
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the record-high syndicated debt issuance last week, the outlook for this week and the implications for euro markets. The positive equity sentiment should support credit spreads. Bund ASW is likely to widen again, while we are constructive on periphery spreads.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our chief strategist on EUR covered and financials Sverre Holbek and our Chief Fixed Income strategist Jens Peter Sørensen join him.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the details of the US-China trade deal and the implications for the global economy. In our view, there are several weaknesses in the Phase 1 trade deal, which could mitigate the uplift in confidence, manufacturing and investment. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our China and trade war expert Allan von Mehren joins him.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the economic and financial performance in 2019 and the outlook for 2020. Real money funds are having a strong year, mirroring the stellar returns of financial assets. We discuss why 2020 will be more challenging despite better growth. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast. He is joined by Head of FX Research, Christin Tuxen, Head of International Macro Research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, and ECB strategist Piet Christiansen.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we zoom in on China and discuss the US-China trade war, US-China decoupling and the Chinese growth outlook.
Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen talks to our China economist Allan von Mehren, who has just returned from a trip to China collecting fresh impressions on these topics.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast we discuss the FX winners and losers from cross-asset rotation. We discuss the importance of equity and fixed income flows for the broad USD and the implications for Scandi currencies.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Head of FX Research Christin Tuxen joins him
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the drivers of the cross-asset rotation with higher equity prices and higher yields. The first leg higher was driven by the reduction of tail risk related to trade war and Brexit in addition to stretched risk premiums. Whether the trend extends will depend on the economic cycle. We discuss the outlook for the cycle and asset implications.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen joins him
In this week’s edition of Macro Strategy Views, we ask whether the recent rise in yields is sustainable. Some of the reasons behind the uptick – notably markets having second thoughts regarding the ECB’s commitment to easing - lead our fixed-income strategists to stress the risk of another dip in, notably, bund rates. This said, the introduction of tiering last week went smoothly and it is now up to new ECB Chair Christine Lagarde to show the way ahead. Finally, we also look at what has - and will - drive Scandi FX ahead of year-end, with self-fulfilling prophecies arguably haunting, in particular, the NOK in recent years.
Head of FX Research Christin Tuxen chairs today’s podcast and Head of FI Research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen and Senior FX Analyst Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt join her.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the rotation in asset performance and the silent change in central banks’ reaction function. Since early September, equities and in particular European bank stocks have outperformed fixed income. This partly reflects geopolitics. However, the concerns about the reversal yield raised by some central banks have lifted short-term yields and banking stocks. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Equity Strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, joins him.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the Riksbank and the ECB meetings this week. We believe the Riksbank will postpone the planned rate hike in December due to low inflation and falling inflation expectations. With regards to the ECB meeting, the focus will be on the recent public disagreement in the Governing Council.
Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Economist in Sweden, Michael Grahn, and our ECB strategist, Piet Christiansen, join him
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the recent developments regarding Brexit and the US-China trade deal. We still believe that a Brexit extension and a snap election are the most likely outcome, while the US-China trade deal is not a game changer. Last week’s geopolitical rally in markets is likely to fade this week. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast. Our UK and US economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss this week’s trade talks between the US and China, what might be included in an interim deal and what are the challenges further out for reaching an all-inclusive deal. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our China Chief Economist Allan von Mehren joins him.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the weak stance of the Swedish labour market. How should one interpret the data and what are the implications for the Riksbank and markets? Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Economist in Sweden, Michael Grahn, joins him.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we reflect on the weak underlying global macroeconomic momentum and the possible impact from two key current geopolitical risk factors: the US-China trade war and tensions in the Middle East.
Head of International Macro and Emerging Market Research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, chairs today's podcast while our China Economist, Allan Von Mehren, joins him.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we reflect on the ECB’s policy meeting last week and discuss Norges Bank’s meeting this week. We discuss the ECB’s silent acknowledgement that monetary policy has run its course and why the easing would have limited impact. We preview the Norges Bank meeting on Thursday – why we think it will hike and its guidance further out. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our ECB strategist, Piet Christiansen, and our Chief Economist in Norway, Frank Jullum, join him.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the ECB’s policy meeting later this week, in terms of what it is likely to do, what it implies for markets and whether it will actually succeed in lifting growth and inflation. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our ECB strategist Piet Christiansen and our Euroland economist Aila Mihr join him.
In our podcast Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the weakening Swedish economy, the Riksbank meeting this week and the market implications. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Chief Economist in Sweden Michael Grahn joins him.
Domestic demand is weakening in Sweden, the labour market is showing clear signs of softness and inflation expectations are falling. We expect the Riksbank to roll its forward guidance this week ahead of the ECB and cut rates in February. We discuss the risk of QE and market implications.
In our Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss Friday’s escalation in the US-China trade war and the implications for markets, with a particular focus on equities. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our Chief Equity Strategist Mattias Sundling joins him
Donald Trump’s action on Friday marks a significant escalation of the trade war and raises the risk of an all-out economic war between the US and China. We expect equities to fall and volatility to rise. In our view, the escalation of the trade war should trigger a new leg lower in interest rates, while the JPY is set to outperform.
In our Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the arguments for why Germany should ease fiscal policy. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen joins him
We discuss the arguments for German fiscal stimulus: cyclically, a secular decline in interest rates, to lift the neutral rate, and support short- and long-term growth. In our view, it may be some time before policymakers act. We believe the market would like to see more concrete evidence of a shift in the German stance before it has a lasting impact.
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the depth of the global slowdown, recession risks and implications for yields. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, while our China economist Allan von Mehren and our head of FI Research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen join him.
We expect the global economic cycle to worsen in coming months but a recession is still not our base case. We expect the worsening global economy to put further downward pressure on US and core euro yields. A ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ pattern around the ECB meeting is the biggest risk for our call of modestly lower euro yields.
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss whether central bank actions will be successful in driving the global economy and financial markets, and the implications for Scandinavia. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast while our US analyst, Mikael Olai Milhøj, our ECB analyst, Piet Christiansen, and our Scandi strategist, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, join him.
The Fed is likely to deliver, which would support the domestic part of the US economy, weaken the US dollar and put modest downward pressure on US yields. We expect the ECB will also deliver, but it would have limited impact and the ECB may be challenged again. We believe the market and Norges Bank are too dovish on the prospects for further interest rate hikes, which would drive broad-based NOK strength.
In our podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the global outlook, Fed-ECB divergence and what it means for markets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast while Head of International Macro Research Jakob Ekholdt Christensen and Senior Analyst Lars Sparresø Merklin join him.
The global economy is set to weaken in the coming months, but we expect the Fed easing to mitigate the slowdown. We expect global equity markets to head lower near term, as risks are rising, while rewards are muted. The USD will weaken on Fed easing. USD curves will steepen, while ECB inaction will continue to depress Eurozone inflation expectations and nominal yields.
In our weekly Macro Strategy Views podcast, we discuss the imminent global slowdown, what it implies for the eurozone and the consequences for markets. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast. He is joined by Chief Analyst Allan Von Mehren, Chief Economist Las Olsen and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen.
The escalation of the trade war is a game changer for the global economy. We expect the Chinese cycle to turn lower with spillover to the eurozone and the US. We discuss other factors driving the slowdown, the policy responses and implications for markets.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we try to make sense of the recent escalation in the global trade war. Senior Analyst in FX Strategy Jens Nærvig Pedersen chairs the podcast and Chief China Analyst Allan von Mehren and Senior Analyst Lars Merklin join him.
The escalation in the global trade war is not due to tactics on the US side. It represents a real breakdown in talks. The decline in USD/JPY and rise in implied volatility made headlines in FX markets. The market had become too optimistic on the outlook for a trade deal and recovery in global economic growth. We further discuss the outlook for a trade deal and for markets. A deal is now more likely to come during the second half of the year in our view and it may be that markets have to force the US back to the negotiating table.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the prospects for European reforms in light of the European election. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and Senior Analyst Piet Christiansen and Senior Analyst Aila Mihr join him. The fiscal rules are too pro-cyclical, complicated and are not working properly. We are pessimistic that a European Deposit Insurance Scheme and a fiscal stabilisation function within the EU will happen. Hence, we believe the sovereign-bank doom loop will persist. This leaves the ESM and ECB as the sole crisis institutions. We discuss how they could react in the next crisis.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the risk of a global recession and put it in the context of the current cyclical outlook. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by Chief Analyst Allan von Mehren and Senior Analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen.
There is a good chance that global and eurozone growth will improve in coming quarters led by China, but it is likely to be a modest cyclical recovery. Over the coming years, there is a considerable risk of a global recession. In the podcast, we discuss the potential triggers and drivers in the US, Europe and China. The US, China and Germany all have the policy space to react to a major downturn.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the similarities and differences between the Scandinavian countries and the eurozone in terms of the outlook for interest rates.
Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast and he is joined by our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen, our DKK strategist Jens Nærvig Pedersen and our Scandi strategist Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt.
Demographics, higher inflation and better trend growth suggest that Norwegian rates will be above eurozone rates. The Riksbank will be constrained by the ECB, in contrast with Norges Bank. However, favourable demographics, higher trend growth and falling savings imply that Swedish rates should be slightly higher than eurozone rates. The sharp increase in Danish pension savings is set to continue depressing Danish interest rates.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the similarities and differences between the eurozone and Japan in terms of the outlook for interest rates. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our eurozone economist, Aila Mihr, joins him.
Both the eurozone and Japan acted too timidly in their crises in terms of monetary policy and banking sector clean up and some countries, e.g. Italy, look much worse than Japan. However, low inflation appears to have become less entrenched in the eurozone than in Japan. Moreover, structural drivers of low interest rates, such as demographics and low trend growth, are less severe in the eurozone than in Japan.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss Brexit, what it implies for the UK economy and markets and the consequences for Europe. Global Head of FI&C Research, Thomas Harr, chairs today’s podcast while our UK economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him.
We expect the UK parliament to vote in favour of a two to three month extension of Article 50 this week. The markets have run ahead of themselves in terms of pricing out Brexit risk and are prone to be disappointed in the coming week. Brexit is not a huge economic risk for the eurozone and the Nordic economies but politically it is a major challenge to the EU.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss the drivers of global inflation and the implications for Sweden. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Economist in Sweden, Michael Grahn, joins him. The Fed's substantial dovish policy shift has lifted marked-based inflation expectations in the US, which might help anchor global inflation expectations. China remains a deflationary force for global inflation, but there are signs that it could turn soon. We discuss the implications for Swedish inflation.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss China’s stimulus, the challenges of the eurozone and the implications for equity markets. Our Global Head of FI&C Research chairs today’s podcast while our Chief Equity Strategist, Mattias Sundling, joins him.
China is now leading the global industrial cycle, with the Eurozone and Scandinavia more closely linked to China than the US. We expect the Chinese economy to recover in coming months and discuss what this means for the eurozone and equity markets.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss year-to-date performance in financial markets and why this may change. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast while our Scandi Strategist, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, joins him.
We discuss why equity markets could turn more volatile in coming weeks given the risks of near-term negative news flows regarding the trade negotiations, combined with a still weak global cycle. The macro divergence between Norway and Sweden has further to run, but Sweden may recover when the eurozone stabilises. There is a glimmer of hope for the eurozone despite all the worries.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss why elevated political uncertainty is not translating into higher financial market volatility and what the future might look like. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast while our UK and US economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him.
During January, most market-based measures of financial market volatility collapsed, while estimates of political uncertainty were at record levels. Since 2011/12, market volatility has decoupled from estimates of global political uncertainty. We discuss why this is the case and whether market volatility is likely to recouple with political uncertainty.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we discuss Brexit, the trade war and policy responses if the global economy weakens further. Global Head of FI&C Research Thomas Harr chairs today’s podcast, with our UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj and China economist Allan von Mehren joining him.
The week is set to be very interesting with respect to both Brexit and the US-China trade war. We discuss what we can expect this week and from future negotiations. We remain optimistic that a no-deal Brexit will be averted and that the US and China will reach a trade deal. However, what could policymakers do if our call is wrong and the world economy enters a prolonged period of low growth?
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we discuss risks to the global economy and the financial system in 2019. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Economist in Denmark Las Olsen joins him. We expect the world economy to pick up speed from Q2 onwards but our call hinges on several assumptions. What if we are wrong? How bad could it be? We discuss risks with respect to trade wars, high-debt/low-growth worries in Italy and France and the Nordic housing markets.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus today on the European and Scandinavian fixed income markets. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Head of Fixed Income Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Fixed Income Analyst Jens Peter Sørensen joins him.
The main focus today is the Scandinavian fixed income markets. The new Swedish government will have little financial impact on the Swedish markets. Focus is still on Riksbank news and the benign inflation outlook, both of which point to value in the Swedish curve. Japanese investors have been active in Swedish mortgage bonds but the recent rate hike has made hedging of the currency risk more expensive for foreign investors. In Denmark, we see the value in the mortgage bond market and see no independent rate hike. Finally, in Norway, the growth story is intact and the market seems to underestimate the risk of a rate hike in 2019. Finally, we briefly discuss the short-term outlook for Bund yields and argue that yields will stay low for the next couple of weeks due to Brexit and US government shutdown uncertainty.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on the recent turmoil in financial markets, what it says about the economy and how the future looks. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Senior Equity Strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, joins him. The markets do not expect an imminent US recession but clearly a slowdown. We expect the manufacturing/export part of the US economy to slow further but the domestic economy to hold up well. Equities are key and we may need to see a stabilisation in growth expectations before equities head forcefully higher with spill-over to credit markets and government bond yields.
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on our outlook for 2019, with a particular focus on the US, Europe and Scandinavia. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Head of International Macro and Emerging Market Research, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, joins him.
Global growth is set to slow next year, led by the USD. However, core inflation in the eurozone is set to head sharply higher over coming years, as higher wage growth feeds into higher service price inflation. Italy is the biggest risk for Europe. Norway should outperform Sweden.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the US-China trade agreement and the way forward. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Analyst and China expert Allan Von Mehren joins him.
On Saturday night, US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping reached an agreement on future trade talks. We discuss in detail what the next steps are in the negotiation, why they are reaching an agreement now, and what this implies for China and the global economy.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on risk premiums across asset classes with a special focus on the credit market. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Senior Credit Strategist, Gabriel Bergin, joins him.
In recent months, risk premiums across asset classes have shot up while risk premiums in currency markets have fallen back. We discuss in detail the market dynamics in credit. Risk premiums across asset classes are likely to edge higher over the next couple of months but fall back when growth expectations stabilise and/or the Fed pauses.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Brexit. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our UK economist Mikael Olai Milhøj joins him.
In today’s podcast, we focus on the contents of the withdrawal agreement and the likelihood of a deal. The biggest risks to a deal are a no-confidence vote against Theresa May and the vote in the House of Commons. We discuss these risks as well as the implications for markets.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we look at the US midterm elections and what they will mean for the US and the global economy. Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, Head of International Macro and Emerging Market Research, chairs today’s podcast and our US economist, Mikael Milhøj, joins him. In the podcast, we go into depth on the US midterm elections and their implications for the US economy, the risk of impeachment of Trump, further pressure on the Fed and the direction of US trade and foreign policy. We also discuss the possible impact on USD, US yields and emerging markets, including China.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the poor returns of 2018 and why this may change. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Jens Peter Sørensen joins him.
In today’s podcast we discuss late-cycle trends and performance across asset classes. 2018 is proving to be the worst performing year since the global financial crisis in 2008, but this does not reflect late-cycle trends. We discuss the outlook across asset classes with a particular focus on FI trends.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes, targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the slowdown in growth, central banks and, in particular, equity markets. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Senior Equity Strategist, Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, joins him.
Growth worries are pushing equities lower. Moreover, central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue as they are committed to normalising monetary policy. However, earnings are strong and we do not expect a sharp slowdown in growth. Hence, equity markets are likely to remain choppy near term before the next move higher.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the current shocks and the future risks facing the global economy and financial system with a special focus on Italy. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our eurozone economist, Aila Mihr, joins him. We expect the EU will give a negative opinion and ask for a revision of the budget, possibly as early as this week. Eventually, the Italian government is likely to give in if the market pressure becomes too great, but the market pressure is not substantial enough yet. An Italian debt crisis is the biggest risk facing the eurozone and the EU in the coming years, as it could prove seriously contagious to other countries.
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on the stock market rout. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Equity Strategist Mattias Sundling joins him.
Italian debt worries and rising US interest rates have driven the sell-off. We expect the former to stay with us for a while, with the latter fading in importance. We believe equity markets will continue to be choppy over the next couple of weeks but we do not expect a sharp new downturn. The next recession in the US and Germany is too far away and we believe looming shocks, such as Italian debt worries and a trade war, are not devastating enough for this correction to be the beginning of a bear market.
In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on US interest rates, Italy and oil prices. We discuss how these shocks influence our views on the Nordics. Thomas Harr Global Head of FI&C Research chairs today’s podcast and our Head of FX Research Christin Kyrme Tuxen joins him.
In our view, the US fiscal stimulus’s positive impact on growth will be as significant in FY 2019 as it has been in 2018. If we do not get inflation in the US now, we believe we will never get it. The EU’s comments on Friday support our view that the EU will give a negative opinion on Italy if it does not revise its budget before 15 October. We see a significant risk that Italy will face a debt crisis over coming years but we believe the probability of Italexit remains very low. We are USD bulls because of US strength but expect limited contagion to the Nordics from Italian debt worries.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Italy and ECB forward guidance. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our eurozone economist, Piet P.H. Christiansen, joins him. There are several worrying issues with the Italian budget, but the devil is in the detail. We expect Italian debt to be volatile at least until 15 October, when we should get more clarity on the budget. The ECB saved Italy in 2014/2015 but they will not save them this time. We discuss whether the ECB’s forward guidance has in fact changed following recent speeches.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Brexit, including the implications for Nordic economies and markets. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our UK economist, Mikael Olai Milhøj, joins him.
We judge that there is a 75% chance of a ‘decent’ Brexit but 15% risk of a cliff-edge Brexit. A cliff-edge Brexit could have significant implications for the Danish agricultural sector. Overall, we see a no-deal Brexit as a modest risk for Nordic economies and markets, which is also how we expect central banks in the region to view it. Click on the link below to hear the podcast.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on inflation and central banks in Norway and Sweden. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Chief Economist in Norway, Frank Jullum, joins him.
We expect Norges Bank to hike rates by 25bp to 75bp on Thursday and we think the central bank will lift the rate path substantially. We expect the NOK and short-term interest rates to rise in Norway. Sweden is trickier, but the weak exchange rate should feed into higher imported inflation in coming months. We are short-term bullish on the SEK.
In our weekly podcast, Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on Italy. Thomas Harr, Global Head of FI&C Research, chairs today’s podcast and our Euroland economist Aila Mihr joins him.
There is currently a three-party power play going on in the Italian government. The 2019 budget deficit is likely to end up at 1.9-2.4% of GDP. It is very unlikely that the deficit will break the EU’s 3% rule. Italian debt is likely to perform well into the budget announcement 27 September. Medium term, there are reasons to be worried. Click on the link below to hear the podcast.