Art of Boring - SoundSage

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Memory has been one of the strongest corners of the semiconductor industry, and strong returns invite hard questions. In the second part of this series, equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo examines the main risks to the memory thesis: rising competition from China's CXMT and YMTC, the technologies that could reduce AI's appetite for memory, and the wave of capacity investment that could eventually tip the industry back into oversupply. He weighs each risk against the constraints holding it back, from equipment export controls to limited EUV supply, and notes that memory companies already trade at three to five times forward earnings. The conversation closes on a working principle: treat the terminal value as a distribution, not a fixed number. Key Takeaways

China's CXMT is expanding DRAM capacity aggressively, but export controls on sub-18 nanometre equipment and EUV keep its effective supply share (about 10%) below its capacity share (about 15%).
YMTC is the more credible technological threat: NAND density comes from stacking layers, and its Xtacking hybrid bonding architecture is proprietary.
Efficiency gains may grow memory consumption rather than reduce it; cheaper tokens get spent on larger context windows (the Jevons paradox).
The deepest risk is architectural: if large language models are not the path to AGI, the next paradigm may not be memory hungry, so terminal value is a distribution, not a fixed number.
Announced capex is enormous but back-loaded into the 2030s, and EUV and equipment capacity are the bottleneck to bringing it online.
Memory companies trade at three to five times forward earnings; the market is not assuming supernormal profits forever, and the NAND supply outlook is better in the near term.

Companies Mentioned: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT (ChangXin Memory), YMTC (Yangtze Memory), Apple, NVIDIA, Google, ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, TSMC, Intel, Kioxia Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Shan Rui Yeo, CFA, Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at:

https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment

https://www.mawer.com

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One of the defining market stories of the past 12 months has not been AI chips that compute, but the chips that remember. Equity analyst Shan Rui Yeo explains how memory works, from DRAM and NAND to high bandwidth memory, and how an industry that destroyed wealth for four decades became disciplined after consolidating to three players in 2013. He then walks through what changed: AI inference has made memory the key bottleneck, memory content is climbing with each new generation of GPUs, and new supply takes three to four years to build. With prices up sharply and customers signing long-term agreements, Part 1 of this three-part conversation lands on a commodity industry whose business model is changing in real time. Key Takeaways * Memory is a commodity with a three-to-four-year supply lag, which is why the cycle has always been difficult. * Consolidation to three players in 2013 turned four decades of wealth destruction into at least 15% returns on capital through the cycles. * In AI inference, memory bandwidth sets the speed of token generation, making memory the key bottleneck. * NVIDIA's Rubin GPU carries 384 GB of DRAM, the equivalent of 32 iPhones per GPU, or 160 million iPhones across five million GPUs. * HBM consumes three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM (four times with HBM4) and is forecast to absorb 30% of DRAM wafers by 2027. * DRAM contract prices are up roughly 200% year to date and 400 to 500% year over year, and price increases are reaching phones, laptops, and consoles. * Customers are signing three-to-five-year agreements with prepayments, which could support a re-rating of memory companies.

Companies Mentioned: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, NVIDIA, Intel, Texas Instruments, Apple, Nintendo Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Shan Rui Yeo, CFA, Equity Analyst This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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Canada has spent a generation underinvesting in the infrastructure and resources that underpin its economy, and that may be starting to change. Canadian small cap equity analyst Dominic Drzazga examines the Build Canada theme: what it actually means beyond the headlines, and what has shifted since the federal election. He walks through the legislative groundwork, from the Building Canada Act to a fast-tracked pipeline of named projects, and explains why the clearest near-term opportunities potentially sit in the middle of the value chain rather than with the eventual asset owners. Above all, he frames Build Canada as a long-horizon shift, one where the discipline is separating the projects that break ground from those that stay on the press release. Key Takeaways

What the Build Canada theme really means, beyond physical infrastructure to Canada's untapped resources and human capital.
The legislative changes since the election: the Building Canada Act, faster approvals, and the new Major Projects Office.
The project pipeline taking shape, from LNG Canada's Kitimat expansion to Ontario Power Generation's small modular reactors.
Why the near-term beneficiaries are in the middle of the value chain, not the eventual asset owners.
How the portfolio is positioned: Bird Construction, Dexterra Group, and Black Diamond.
The key risks: projects that stall, and cost and schedule overruns, and how the team manages them.

Companies Mentioned: Bird Construction, Dexterra Group, Black Diamond Group, Aecon, Dow Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Dominic Drzazga, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at:

https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment

https://www.mawer.com

https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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Canadian equities gained in the second quarter of 2026 even as the economy tripped the technical definition of a recession and an oil shock sent crude toward $120 before it fell back. Institutional portfolio manager Kevin Minas and investment counsellor Stu Morrow review the quarter, from the gap between the Canadian market and the Canadian economy to the case for holding commodity exposure as geopolitical risk becomes a recurring feature rather than a one-off. They also discuss what a narrow, AI-led rally means for a diversified portfolio, record hyperscaler bond issuance in Canada, and how the Bank of Canada and the Fed held rates through a volatile stretch. The conversation closes on the quarter's asset allocation: trimming equities back toward a neutral mix. Key Takeaways

Canada met the technical definition of a recession, but the picture underneath was nuanced. GDP rebounded about 0.5% in April with most industries expanding, and per-capita output grew, closer to a stall-speed economy than a true contraction.
The market and the economy can tell different stories. Financials and energy dominate the TSX while real estate and healthcare drive more of the real economy, which helps explain a roughly 7% TSX return alongside soft growth.
Geopolitical risk increasingly looks like a recurring condition rather than a rare tail event. With oil spiking near $120 before falling back toward $70, the episode makes the case that commodity exposure can play a portfolio-construction role, chosen selectively where valuation and business quality support it, rather than serving as a call on prices.
The Fed stood pat under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the Bank of Canada held across its April and June meetings after cutting substantially. In Canadian bonds, the team added duration as yields rose on inflation fears and removed it as they fell.
On AI, the aim is not to guess whether the buildout keeps running, but to choose which risk to live with: too much concentration in the theme on one side, or falling behind by stepping away from it on the other. The team keeps the portfolio from leaning too far in either direction by weighing the companies spending on the buildout against the hyperscalers earning from it, since one company's capital spending is another's revenue. With memory stocks, the risk lies less in the multiple paid than in the cyclicality of the earnings.
Credit was constructive, with record hyperscaler issuance in Canada including a $14 billion Amazon deal that Mawer participated in. With spreads tight, positioning stayed higher-quality and shorter-dated, and the balanced strategy trimmed equities back toward a neutral asset mix.

Companies Mentioned: Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, Oracle Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA, Mawer Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at:

https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

#ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

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Investment teams increasingly build and rely on their own AI tools, but the payoff depends on how deliberately a team reinvests the time that AI frees up. Emerging markets portfolio manager Wen Quan Cheong walks through how his team puts believability-weighted decision making into daily practice, and where AI has genuinely enhanced the process. He closes with a tour of the emerging-market themes he is watching most closely, from reshoring and clean-room capacity to physical AI, low-earth-orbit satellites, and businesses winning simply by putting the customer first. Above all, he returns to the idea that AI's real value lies in what a team chooses to do with the time it saves.

Key Takeaways

The team practices believability-weighted decision making: deferring more to teammates with deeper expertise on a given name, while still doing enough independent work to spot blind spots.
One of AI's biggest productivity gain so far for the team has been in forensic analysis, running deeper, more consistent checks across longer time periods than a human could alone, freeing up time for higher-value work like idea generation and company research.
That saved time is meant to be reinvested, not banked: attending more conferences, joining more management calls, and turning insight generation itself into a discipline, described as "learning compression."
On reshoring, the team sees opportunity less in the household names and more in the infrastructure behind the shift: industrial park developers, port operators, and specialized clean-room engineering firms like Acter Group and CTP.
Beyond AI and reshoring, the team explores other areas such as physical AI and low-earth-orbit satellites, as well as EM businesses, such as NU Holdings, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank, that win by being more customer-obsessed than entrenched incumbents.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Wen Quan Cheong, CFA Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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AI portfolio construction in global equity markets (memory semiconductors, mega IPOs, and how to manage concentration risk) is the focus of this conversation with Mawer's global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz. Drawing on Homer's Odyssey, he explains the discipline the team applies when navigating themes that are moving quickly: from trimming SK Hynix systematically as the position grew, to sizing up what a wave of large IPOs means for cost of capital, to the central trade-off between underexposure and overconcentration in the AI complex. He also puts numbers around the portfolio's AI positioning and explains how hyperscaler holdings act as a natural offset. The episode closes on humility as a process requirement, reflected in the portfolio's expansion to nearly 90 names with smaller, more incremental position sizing. Key Takeaways

Memory semiconductors, including SK Hynix, illustrate the discipline required around fast-moving themes. The team has sold back nearly as much as it invested in SK Hynix while the position has grown to over 5% of the portfolio — a deliberate trimming driven by ongoing valuation modeling, not a change in the thesis. The risk is not the price-to-earnings multiple; it is the cyclicality of earnings, and the question of how long the current upcycle runs.
Odysseus' response to the Sirens when he ties himself to the mast and has his crew row with beeswax in their ears is a useful analogy for process. Decisions made in advance of the moment of seduction, grounded in a systematic valuation framework, are more reliable than decisions made in the heat of a rapid move.
Large IPOs entering markets signal a more capital-intensive economic period and raise real questions about where the capital comes from. Companies already in the S&P 500 benefit from a structural cost-of-capital advantage over those outside it, and the team watches for what needs to be sold as large new issuers absorb liquidity. A period of multiple compression, while uncomfortable for near-term statements, improves long-term reinvestment returns.
The Scylla-versus-Charybdis choice (the monster on one side, the whirlpool on the other) maps directly onto the AI portfolio construction problem. The team's AI hardware exposure sits at approximately 22.7% of the portfolio; a 50% drawdown in that sleeve would represent roughly an 11-12% hit to the overall portfolio. An offsetting 15.5% is held in hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) whose capital expenditure is the revenue of the hardware side, producing a natural hedge that brings net directional AI exposure to around 7-8%.
The team's response to the Cyclops story (Odysseus boasting after his victory, which brought years of suffering from Poseidon) is portfolio humility expressed through construction. The global equity portfolio now holds just under 90 names, with positions sized smaller and traded in smaller increments to reduce the cost of being wrong and to manage in a high-volatility environment.
Some holdings that look nothing like AI businesses have begun moving with AI sentiment. The team treats these correlation shifts as arbitrage opportunities: when something is priced as an AI stock but carries different underlying risk, there may be a better entry or exit available elsewhere in the complex.

0:00 - Introduction: Homer's Odyssey and the AI Trade 1:39 - The Sirens: Memory Stocks, SK Hynix, and Valuation Discipline 7:54 - Managing a Position That Has Grown Beyond Its Cost Base 10:30 - Mega IPOs, Cost of Capital, and Index Inclusion Advantage 15:49 - Scylla vs. Charybdis: Choosing Your Risk in AI 17:58 - AI Portfolio Construction: Numbers, Offsets, and Net Exposure 23:11 - Correlation Creep: When Non-AI Stocks Start Acting Like AI 24:42 - The Cyclops Story: Humility, Diversification, and Process 26:53 - Closing: Managing Money Across Generations 27:15 - Outro and Subscribe Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA, Global Equity Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at: https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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Canada's stock market has set repeated record highs in 2026, even as the domestic economy feels soft. Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford explains the gap between the two, and why a large weight in financials can represent more diversification rather than less. He walks through how the team rotated within the sector as the banks re-rated, and the discipline behind trimming a gold position that had run. As indexes themselves have grown more concentrated, the conversation lands on a simple idea: knowing what you own matters more than ever.

Key takeaways

• The Canadian market and the Canadian economy can tell very different stories. Commodities and financials drive a large share of corporate earnings even though relatively few people work in those sectors, which helps explain record markets alongside near-zero real growth.

• A large weight in financials is not a single bet. Beneath the label sit banks, life, property and casualty insurers, alternative asset managers, and exchanges, each with its own return drivers and correlations.

• Position weights reflect what has worked, but they are not fixed. As the banks re-rated from roughly 10 to 12 times earnings toward 15 to 16 times, the team recycled capital into property and casualty insurers and alternative asset managers offering more attractive returns.

• Gold earns its place through company economics, not a price forecast. Royalty businesses and selected miners were added for their free cash flow and differentiated correlation, then trimmed as the combined weight grew and the rate and inflation backdrop shifted.

• Trimming winners is as much a part of the discipline as finding them. Allowing any single position or exposure to grow unchecked introduces risk that has nothing to do with the original thesis.

• Indexes have become increasingly concentrated vehicles. Knowing what you own, and holding exposures by deliberate choice rather than by default, can be key to real diversification.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit us at:

https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment

https://www.mawer.com

https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

#ArtOfBoring #MawerInvestmentManagement #MawerInvestment #Podcasts

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In this episode, portfolio manager Steven Visscher covers how Mawer's balanced portfolios navigated 2025 and how they are positioned in 2026. With a war-driven energy shock on one side and an AI investment boom on the other, the market is pulling in two directions at once. Steven walks through what that means for asset mix, where the team is seeing signs of investor complacency, and why cracks in private credit could soon create a meaningful opportunity. Key Takeaways: * Two forces are competing for market direction in 2026: a war-driven energy shock from the conflict in Iran pushing inflation and rates higher, and a broadening AI investment boom driving strong earnings momentum across the global economy. * AI capital investment has expanded well beyond the hyperscalers to include memory, storage, cooling, data centres, and electrical grid infrastructure, with more than 80% of S&P 500 Q1 reporters beating earnings expectations. * Current positioning remains close to neutral at 60% equity, with a continued underweight to U.S. equities in favour of international and emerging markets. Valuations, interest rates, and investor psychology all support staying close to that neutral stance. * Cracks in private credit are emerging through rising defaults and client redemption gating. The team is building global credit exposure gradually and is prepared to deploy capital more aggressively when a dislocation occurs. * In an environment of competing forces and mixed signals, staying diversified, maintaining valuation discipline, and building portfolios that can withstand multiple scenarios remains the priority.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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In this episode, Jeff Mo, U.S. mid-cap portfolio manager, explores a fundamental shift in how economies may grow over the next decade. He makes the case that after 25 years of intangible, internet-driven expansion, growth may increasingly depend on building physical things again: data centers, electrical infrastructure, factories, defense systems, satellites. Jeff walks through the forces driving this transition, from AI's voracious appetite for capital to geopolitical tensions reshaping supply chains and defense spending. The conversation examines how these macro themes connect to bottom-up stock selection, where the U.S. mid-cap team is finding opportunities today, and why maintaining inherent contradictions in the portfolio remains essential even as thematic investing dominates market behavior. • Why producing one unit of GDP today requires about a third as much oil as in the 1970s, yet capital expenditure per unit of GDP growth may be rising as the economy shifts from intangible services back toward physical infrastructure and manufacturing.

• How AI data center buildouts, reshoring of manufacturing, rising defense budgets, and the expanding space economy are all driving higher demand for physical capital, commodities, and industrial capacity after a decade of underinvestment.

• How the hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) are moving from massive net cash positions to net debt as they fund AI infrastructure, tightening capital availability for the rest of the economy and potentially raising interest rates and dampening consumer spending.

• Where the U.S. mid-cap team is finding opportunities aligned with these themes, from companies like Northrop Grumman, SanDisk, and OSI Systems, while maintaining portfolio balance through inherent contradictions.

• Why humility matters most when contemplating big-picture themes: the goal isn't predicting the future but building a diversified portfolio of wealth-creating companies that can withstand multiple scenarios.

[00:00] Introduction: From Intangible to Physical Economy

[00:50] Opening Discussion with Jeff Moe

[01:42] Oil Efficiency vs. Rising CapEx Requirements

[03:39] Economic Growth: Labor, Capital, and Productivity

[04:11] Infrastructure Investment and Reshoring Trends

[06:52] Defense Spending and Capital Intensity

[07:08] The Space Economy: Satellites and Connectivity

[11:00] Memory Market Dynamics and Contract Changes

[12:22] Cyclicality in a Capital-Intensive Economy

[15:04] Consumption vs. Investment: Portfolio Implications

[17:44] Connecting Themes to Bottom-Up Research

[18:44] Idea Generation and Stock Selection Process

[21:32] Winners and Losers: The Bits to Atoms Trade

[22:00] Portfolio Construction: Inherent Contradictions

[25:21] Where the Theme Might Be Wrong

[26:09] Long-Term Wealth Creation and Economic Optimism

[28:18] Closing and Subscription Information

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Visit us at:

https://www.youtube.com/@MawerInvestment https://www.mawer.com https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

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In this episode, Peter Lampert, international equity portfolio manager, examines the Middle East conflict and its implications for global markets. He walks through the portfolio's diversification strategy, explains the team's nearly 40-year history with Shell, and explores how a changing market backdrop has challenged traditional definitions of quality and why forward-looking analysis may matter more than historical patterns.

How the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are affecting oil and LNG flows, and why equity markets have largely looked through the disruption so far.
The portfolio's diversification strategy, balancing energy importers like TSMC with energy producers like Shell to create resilience across different scenarios.
Why the team exited Shell in 2015 during the commodity boom, and what changed to make it attractive again when they reinitiated the position in 2022.
How the traditional quality factor has underperformed over the last five years as interest rates and commodity prices rose, rotating investor interest away from high-quality growth companies.
Why forward-looking analysis is critical—finding wealth-creating companies that don't fit the conventional quality mold, like European defense companies and Korean memory producers benefiting from AI demand.

0:00 Introduction & Episode Overview 0:27 Disclaimer 0:44 Middle East Conflict and Market Implications 1:13 Strait of Hormuz Blockade and Energy Disruption 2:10 Key Risks: Oil, LNG, and Infrastructure Damage 3:30 Portfolio Positioning and Energy Exposure 4:39 Case Study: How TSMC Manages Energy Risk 6:42 Portfolio Diversification Strategy 7:27 Balancing Energy Importers and Producers 8:37 Shell: A 40-Year Investment History 10:35 Quality Factor Underperformance 11:00 Redefining Quality in Changing Markets 14:41 Final Thoughts: Long-Term Perspective 15:19 Closing Remarks and Subscribe

Host Info:

Rob Campbell, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Peter Lampert, CFA

Portfolio Manager

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In this episode, Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities Strategy, examines a fixed income backdrop reshaped by geopolitical escalation, an energy shock, and sharply changing interest-rate expectations. He explains why higher benchmark yields and modestly wider spreads still leave many parts of credit looking expensive, where Mawer is finding more selective value through bottom-up research, and why the strategy remains tilted toward shorter-duration, higher-quality credit. The conversation also explores AI-related bond issuance from hyperscalers, signs of strain in leveraged finance and private credit, and what a more fragile lending environment could mean for investors. Highlights:

How geopolitical escalation and higher oil prices have pushed inflation concerns back to the forefront and reshaped rate expectations in major markets.
Why higher benchmark yields have not been enough to make much of longer-duration or lower-quality credit compelling today.
A look at two selective opportunities: CoreWeave, tied to AI infrastructure, and a fallen angel with potential catalysts and downside protection.
How AI is being used inside Mawer's research process to sort through a vast global credit universe and surface new ideas.
Why massive borrowing by hyperscalers to fund AI CapEx could pressure investment-grade spreads over the next 12 to 18 months.
Early signs of stress in leveraged loans and private credit, and why Brian sees growing evidence of "decay" in parts of the lending market.

Chapters: [0:00] Introduction [0:32] Disclaimer [0:49] Welcome and Guest Introduction [0:54] Macro Environment Shifts: Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Shocks [1:44] Impact on Global Credit Markets and Central Bank Expectations [4:32] Where to Find Value in Credit Markets Today [6:47] Portfolio Positioning: Defensive Stance Explained [7:18] Credit Opportunity #1: CoreWeave and the AI Revolution [8:35] Credit Opportunity #2: A Fallen Angel Opportunity [9:49] Using AI Technology in Credit Research [10:59] Hyperscaler Bond Issuance: The New Market Dynamic [13:47] Impact of Tech Giants Crowding the Investment Grade Market [14:56] Private Credit Risks and Bank Syndication Challenges [16:53] Signs of Decay in Private Credit Markets [20:42] Closing Thoughts: Positioning for Opportunity [21:16] Outro Host: Kevin Minas, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Brian Carney, CFA Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas and Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow examine the forces shaping markets in the first quarter of 2026. From the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its impact on oil, inflation, and growth to the broadening AI disruption across software and asset-light business models, they explore how investors can stay thoughtful in an increasingly complex environment. The conversation covers stagflation risks, bond market dynamics, the role of gold as a hedge, and the portfolio adjustments being made as quality businesses face new tests of durability in a changing world order.

Key Highlights:

• Middle East conflict and stagflation risks: The escalation in Iran has dominated Q1, with the Strait of Hormuz carrying a fifth of daily global oil and gas consumption. Beyond energy, the conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, semiconductor inputs, and global growth—raising the specter of stagflation as slowing growth meets rising inflation, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates.

• Equity market performance beneath the surface: While headline quarterly returns appeared calm, significant sector and regional divergence emerged. Energy outperformed (benefiting Canada and developed international markets), while U.S. mega-cap tech and software faced scrutiny over AI CapEx spending and disruption risks.

• Bond markets challenged in inflationary environment: Central banks stayed on the sidelines in Q1, balancing inflation concerns against growth risks. Yields rose across the curve, with bonds selling off alongside equities and challenging their traditional safe-haven role. Diversification within fixed income—including global credit with higher yield and lower duration—remains critical for navigating different market regimes.

• AI disruption broadening beyond software: The AI "loser" narrative expanded from software providers to consultants, insurance brokers, wealth managers, and other asset-light business models. Markets are pricing in disintermediation risk even where fundamentals haven't deteriorated, with stocks treated as "guilty until proven innocent" based on concerns about future cash flows.

• Discipline through uncertainty: Despite multiple potential outcomes from geopolitical and market disruptions, Mawer's investment process remains focused on competitive advantages, durable returns on capital, and disciplined management. The playbook has been updated through broad diversification and careful position sizing—emphasizing that a quality approach carries investors through periods of heightened complexity.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, global equity portfolio manager Paul Moroz examines how investors can navigate a market increasingly shaped by conflict, shifting narratives, and wider ranges of possible outcomes. He begins with the recent escalation in the Middle East and the market's relatively measured response, then considers the second-order effects that can matter just as much as the initial shock. The conversation also explores how recent AI-driven swings in software have revealed a market increasingly influenced by thematic flows and short-term sentiment, rather than the more measured process of weighing business fundamentals. Throughout, Paul returns to a central idea: good portfolio management is rarely about one big call, but about making many small, disciplined decisions within a diversified portfolio.

Highlights:

Why the market's reaction to the recent escalation in the Middle East has remained relatively measured so far
John Deere as a second-order effects case study: how rising oil and fertilizer costs can affect customer economics, margins, and capital allocation
Thematic trading and the gap between price and intrinsic value: the Centrini AI thought piece in February triggered a broad software sell-off, showing how quickly disruption narratives—not fundamentals—can dominate market pricing
Capital intensity isn't the enemy—poor returns are. Microsoft and Amazon are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, but a key question is whether bundling compute with distribution advantages will deliver attractive returns on that capital.
Why Paul believes the market's "voting machine" is increasingly overwhelming the "weighing machine." Markets vote on sentiment every day but building real businesses (and real wealth) takes years of focusing on fundamentals while tuning out the noise.

Host:

Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Paul Moroz, CFA Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, U.S. equity portfolio manager Grayson Witcher explores what it means to invest exclusively in American businesses at a time when the U.S. is becoming more short‑term, more transactional, and more central to global change. He contrasts a shifting U.S. "extraction" mindset with China's longer-term industrial strategy and considers how that dynamic is reshaping globalization into a more regional, security-conscious world. The conversation then turns to portfolio implications: why the team has been reducing exposure to mature, highly penetrated software names facing intensifying competition and AI disruption, how the market's treatment of AI has evolved from hype to a more "show me the returns" phase, and where they see resilient opportunities.

Highlights:

How a more short-term, "extraction"-oriented U.S. policy stance—via tariffs, reshoring, and industrial policy—is altering incentives for companies and trading partners.
The evolving nature of software moats in an AI world, including higher competitive intensity, mature end markets, and why some long-term winners' valuations may no longer be justified.
The market's transition from rewarding any AI narrative to demanding clearer evidence of economic returns on massive cloud and data-center capital spending.
A deliberate tilt toward businesses positioned for a more regionalized, security-focused world order, including nuclear, defense, and automation suppliers with multiple ways to win.
The importance of remaining bottom-up and valuation-driven while acknowledging regime change—using portfolio construction to manage uncertainty rather than making binary macro bets.

Host:

Andrew Johnson, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB

Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Wen Quan Cheong, co-manager of Mawer's emerging markets equity strategy, outlines four major themes shaping the opportunity set today. First, the "picks and shovels" of AI: upstream enablers such as advanced chip manufacturers, memory makers, and specialized chip-testing firms that are benefiting from structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chain. Second, companies that are actually converting AI investment into higher returns on capital. Third, the "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," where national security concerns, tariffs, and "China plus one" strategies are driving a reconfiguration of strategic manufacturing infrastructure across Asia and the U.S. And finally, a broader universe of less obvious EM stories that illustrate how opportunity is evolving across regions and sectors as these forces play out.

Highlights:

Why upstream AI enablers are seeing such powerful earnings leverage: how capacity cuts, equipment bottlenecks, and surging demand for DRAM, HBM, and NAND have flipped the memory market from oversupplied to structurally tight.
What it takes for companies to truly convert AI investment into sustainable returns on invested capital, and why early, well-run adopters may enjoy a multi year edge.
How shifting geopolitics, U.S. tariffs, and national security concerns are driving a "Great Supply Chain Reshuffle," from TSMC-linked clean room specialists like Actor Group supporting new fabs to Chinese manufacturers using their domestic scale and integration to expand overseas.
Why emerging markets are more than just China and tech, with examples ranging from Saudi insurance aggregation and Vietnamese pharmacies to ship maintenance businesses with recurring revenues.

Host:

Rob Campbell, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Wen Quan Cheong, CFA

Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Equity analyst Alex Romaines joins the podcast to unpack "accounting shenanigans" and why getting from reported numbers to the economic truth of a business is so critical for long-term investors. Drawing on forensic accounting frameworks, he explains how a deep grounding in accounting shapes the way he interrogates financial statements—moving beyond compliance with standards to questions of judgment, incentives, and sustainability. The conversation discusses the issue of stock-based compensation: why adding it back to "adjusted" earnings can be misleading, how dilution and buybacks can quietly transfer wealth from outside shareholders to insiders, and practical ways investors can incorporate these real costs into valuation. Alex then highlights other red flags on his radar today—from lengthening depreciation schedules on fast-changing tech hardware, to vendor financing that may inflate revenues, to the quiet return of special purpose vehicles. Highlights:

How a forensic accounting mindset helps investors move from reported numbers to the real economics of a business—and why that gap matters.
Stock-based compensation as a quiet wealth transfer mechanism, and practical ways long-term investors can account for its true cost.
The growing role of judgment in modern financial reporting, from "adjusted" earnings to the incentives shaping management's disclosures.
Other accounting signals Alex is watching now, including depreciation assumptions, vendor financing, and the renewed use of special purpose vehicles.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Alex Romaines, CFA Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In a world where geopolitical tension, economic inequality, and technological change are all accelerating, what does it mean to be a long‑term, bottom‑up investor? In this episode, portfolio manager Paul Moroz explores how today's regime differs from the post‑crisis "Pax Americana" era. Drawing on history—from Shakespeare to ancient debt jubilees—he connects recurring human patterns of fear, greed, and class conflicts to today's tensions. The discussion then turns to specifics around how investors must adapt in a more volatile world, and how AI is emerging both as a powerful market force and as a tool that is reshaping the day‑to‑day work of investors. Highlights include:

How recurring historical patterns—from Shakespeare's Coriolanus to ancient debt jubilees—shed light on today's tensions around inequality and financial repression
How portfolio construction may need to adapt: broader diversification, smaller positions, heavy emphasis on risk management
Why bottom‑up analysis still matters as much as ever, even when top‑down forces feel louder
How AI's ability to let fewer people do more work could widen existing wealth divides, reshape career paths in knowledge‑based fields, and force organizations to rethink how they hire, train, and promote talent
Why the edge in investing is shifting from gathering information to asking better questions and exercising sound human judgment

Host:

Rob Campbell, CFA

Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:

Paul Moroz,

CFA Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, we sit down with equity analyst Joshua Samuel to explore how artificial intelligence and large language models (LLMs) are fundamentally reshaping the nature of competitive advantages tied to data. Josh presents a comprehensive framework for evaluating data moats in the modern era, breaking down four critical categories that can separate lasting advantages from temporary ones. The conversation examines how companies across sectors—from FinTech to defense—are leveraging data to drive better decision making and outcomes. He also addresses the flip side: where traditional data advantages are being eroded by AI's ability to synthesize information, and why trust and execution remain crucial even amongst data advantages. Key Highlights:

AI systems now capture and analyze subconscious behavior patterns through clicks and scrolls, potentially knowing users better than they know themselves
Traditional data moats in legal, medical, and scientific databases face existential threats as LLMs trained on humanity's collective knowledge can synthesize equivalent insights
General-purpose AI can outperform specialized systems by piecing together disparate information, even without access to proprietary datasets
In high-stakes B2B environments, established relationships and trust remain powerful defenses against AI disruption, especially where career risk is involved
Examines Tencent as a rare example of a company that combines all four dimensions of a strong data moat—proprietary, continuously refreshed, high‑dimensional, and closed‑loop data—spanning social, payments, commerce, and mini‑program ecosystems.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager Guest: Joshua Samuel, CFA Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow and Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas examine the forces reshaping markets in the fourth quarter. From central banks navigating the shift toward policy normalization to equity leadership rotating beyond mega-cap AI stocks, they explore how a resilient but slowing economy is influencing investment decisions. The conversation covers evolving credit conditions, geopolitical developments including recent events in Venezuela, and the portfolio adjustments being made as valuations rise and late-cycle dynamics emerge. Key highlights:

Global growth is moderating, labour markets are softening, and inflation is easing, giving central banks room to shift from restrictive policy toward gradual normalization.
Steeper yield curves and very tight credit spreads leave bond investors with decent starting yields but limited compensation for taking extra credit or liquidity risk—arguing against "reaching for yield."
Equity leadership is broadening beyond a narrow group of U.S. megacap AI winners, with stronger participation from cyclicals, financials, and international markets—a healthier backdrop for diversified, active investors.
The AI boom is increasingly about infrastructure—semiconductors, memory, power, and data centres—raising questions about sustainability, profitability, and bubblelike dynamics in parts of the ecosystem.
Geopolitical shifts, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela and a move toward more transactional "spheres of influence," reinforce the case for disciplined, diversified, valuation driven positioning and only incremental asset mix adjustments.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Stu Morrow, CFA Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets.

Key Highlights:

• In 2025, Canadian equity returns were shaped less by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff shock and more by how markets digested that risk over time alongside a domestic pivot toward pro-growth policy—forces that helped support energy, commodities, and especially the banks.

• Within financials, Canadian banks—TD in particular—saw improving fundamentals as credit conditions held up, wealth and capital markets businesses performed well, and a more growth oriented regulatory stance supported competitiveness.

• In energy, the team tilted toward integrated producers like Suncor and trimmed more differential sensitive exposure such as Canadian Natural, balancing the long-term risk of higher Venezuelan heavy crude supply against the offsetting support of TMX export capacity.

• The team selectively added to gold producers, seeing attractive unit economics and reasonable valuations, and viewing gold as a useful diversifier in a world of geopolitical tension, dedollarization talk, and looser fiscal discipline.

• Stepping back, Mark frames Venezuela and trade policy within a broader shift toward transactional spheres of influence and "mercantilist" great power politics—arguing for diversified, incremental positioning changes rather than binary macro bets or anchoring portfolios to any single geopolitical outcome.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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U.S. mid-cap equities are often overlooked, but beneath the headlines of consumer weakness and market volatility, there's a more nuanced story. Portfolio manager Jeff Mo shares a bottom-up perspective on resilient—though bifurcated—consumer spending, margin surprises, and a capital expenditure boom that extends beyond AI. The discussion explores how company fundamentals, competitive advantages, and valuation opportunities are shaping portfolio decisions, with insights into sectors like defense and industrials. Jeff also addresses the impact of macro trends on stock selection, the evolving CapEx landscape, and why mid-cap valuations may offer compelling long-term potential.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

U.S. consumer spending remains resilient overall, though lower-income segments are showing more strain and deal-seeking behavior.
Companies with strong competitive advantages continue to demonstrate pricing power and healthy margins, despite inflation and shifting cost pressures.
The current CapEx boom is not limited to AI—reshoring, supply chain resilience, and manufacturing investments are driving activity across sectors.
Market volatility in the mid-cap space has led to outsized stock reactions, creating opportunities for long-term, bottom-up investors.
Defense and industrial companies, such as CACI International and ITT, are benefiting from innovation, management execution, and evolving end markets.
Mid-cap valuations are reasonable relative to large-caps, with select areas appearing overlooked and offering attractive long-term return potential.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

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On this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets. Key Highlights

Recent private market bankruptcies may signal broader, systemic credit market weakness rather than isolated events, with deteriorating lending standards and rising delinquencies warranting caution.
Growing sovereign debt and persistent inflation are challenging the traditional "safe haven" status of U.S. Treasuries, prompting a preference for shorter duration and higher-quality credit exposure.
The surge in AI-driven capital expenditures is fueling a wave of debt issuance by large tech companies, likely putting upward pressure on credit spreads and shifting market dynamics in favour of lenders over time.
Regulatory rollbacks in the U.S. are reducing transparency and increasing risk-taking, especially in unregulated and private markets, raising concerns about financial stability and corporate behaviour.
Credit risk premiums remain compressed, with investors often inadequately compensated for lower-quality credit risk; opportunities are limited, and selectivity is critical.
Defensive positioning—focusing on capital preservation, short duration, and high-quality issuers—remains key, with readiness to deploy capital quickly when market dislocations create attractive opportunities.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Brian Carney, CFA, Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

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In this episode, portfolio manager Peter Lampert discusses the evolving landscape of international equities, with a special focus on the portfolio's exposure to AI enablers—companies powering the semiconductor supply chain, from power supply units to memory makers. Lampert explains the importance of distinguishing between firms merely riding the AI investment wave and those whose competitive positions are fundamentally strengthening as a result. The conversation also explores attractive valuations outside the U.S., the growing role of Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization, and the need for careful risk management as AI adoption and global trends unfold. Lampert emphasizes a diversified, long-term approach—balancing AI-driven growth, sector-specific opportunities in Europe and Asia, and resilience against macro risks—to position the portfolio for sustainable value creation in a rapidly changing world.

Key highlights:

How international equities are benefiting from AI infrastructure growth, focusing on companies enabling the semiconductor supply chain (e.g., power supply units, memory makers).
The importance of distinguishing between firms temporarily boosted by AI demand and those with strengthening long-term competitive advantages.
Attractive valuations and growth opportunities for AI enablers outside the U.S., particularly in Europe, Taiwan, and Korea.
An examination of portfolio diversification, including exposure to Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization.
Risk management in balancing AI exposure with other portfolio drivers and the need for resilience as adoption and global trends evolve.
The ongoing debate around incumbent software companies' ability to adapt to AI, emphasizing a case-by-case, long-term approach.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Paul Moroz returns to share an update on our global equity strategy. We dig into what's changed since Paul resumed the lead portfolio manager role, how the team's collaboration has evolved, and why a more diversified and resilient portfolio is the result. Listen for Paul's take on why optionality and humility matter more than ever.

Key highlights:

Enhanced team collaboration through structural changes leading to better cross-team idea generation
Improved portfolio diversification with holdings expanding to over 70 securities: reduction of consumer staples and discretionary overweights, while adding strategic small positions that provide optionality for rapid capital allocation as markets shift
Fundamental momentum alignment improved by reducing problem positions and increasing strong earnings momentum names, resulting in better down capture characteristics during market declines
Strategic AI complex exposure built through diversified Asian infrastructure plays in memory, power, data centers, and chip fabrication, targeting high market share businesses with better risk-adjusted returns
Comprehensive IT sector review underway to identify opportunities in potentially mispriced software companies
Portfolio repositioning complete with approximately 19% turnover executed to create a more balanced, diversified portfolio aligned with the platform's investment philosophy: designed for resilience across market regimes

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, we sat down with our Director of Research, Vijay Viswanathan, and Institutional Portfolio Manager, Kevin Minas, to talk through their observations this past quarter. We talk macro, micro, and everything in between, touching on changing market dynamics, central bank policy, how the portfolios are doing in this environment, and, finally, how we're positioning ourselves as we move forward.

Key highlights:

Three major macro themes dominated the quarter—trade policy tensions (though somewhat cooling), continued fiscal stimulus despite near-capacity economies, and AI-driven infrastructure growth
Central banks are balancing growth concerns and inflation risks, with both the Fed and Bank of Canada beginning easing cycles in September
Equity markets showed a strong “risk-on” tone, hitting record highs, with AI and commodities (especially gold and copper) driving much of the growth and market attention.
Fixed income returns were strong, led by central bank easing and tighter credit spreads; portfolios favored short-duration bonds and gradually reduced risk as valuations rose.
Asset Mix shifts include trimming U.S. and Canadian large cap equities after strong absolute returns, increasing exposure to emerging markets and global credit, and shifting from cash to fixed income for better yield and resilience.
The team remains committed to core investment principles while adapting portfolios for changing market dynamics

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA - Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA - Institutional Portfolio Manager Vijay Viswanathan, CFA, MBA - Director of Research, Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead.

Key highlights:

Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports.
Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to resuming rate cuts as growth slows and inflation pressures moderate, though questions about central bank independence and timing of policy moves remain.
Canadian bond market performance has been driven by both falling interest rates—especially at the short end of the curve—and tightening credit spreads, with shorter maturities and lower-quality credits outperforming, while longer-dated bonds have lagged due to concerns about persistent inflation.
The current strategy emphasizes a steepening yield curve, overweight positions in shorter-dated, higher-quality corporate bonds, and caution on longer maturities, reflecting expectations for continued central bank easing and ongoing risks from inflation and credit fundamentals.
Despite recent headlines about rising bond-equity correlations and market risks, fixed income remains a valuable portfolio diversifier, offering higher yields than in recent years and providing a cushion against volatility and modest rate increases.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Christa Caughlin, CFA– Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Equity analyst Ian Turnbull shares insights from his latest trip to Japan, highlighting the unique aspects of Japanese society and corporate culture. From surplus and stakeholder capitalism to why you might get more than you pay for at a 7-Eleven convenience store, Ian reflects on the value of on-the-ground research, the trade-offs involved in capital allocation decisions, and pockets of real opportunity within Japan's evolving business landscape. Key Takeaways

On-the-ground research in Japan reveals unique cultural and corporate dynamics that are difficult to capture from afar; direct engagement with people and companies provides deeper context for investment decisions.
Japanese corporate culture emphasizes stakeholder capitalism, with surplus value often distributed to customers, employees, suppliers, and society—sometimes at the expense of shareholder returns; this results in high-quality service, strong employee loyalty, and long-term relationships.
Balance sheets in Japan tend to be conservative, offering downside protection but limiting upside potential; recent years have seen gradual shifts toward greater efficiency and shareholder focus, though progress is uneven and culturally nuanced.
Digitalization and technology adoption present significant opportunities, as Japan faces labor shortages and lags in some areas of tech implementation; companies enabling digital transformation may be well-positioned for growth.
Corporate transformation is occurring slowly, with some firms like Hitachi making deliberate, long-term changes to focus on higher-return areas and divest less profitable segments; this reflects a broader trend of incremental governance and capital allocation improvements.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Ian Turnbull, CFA– Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher explores the evolving intersection of government policy, innovation, and capital expenditure (CapEx) in U.S. markets. The discussion unpacks how public spending and strategic government stakes—especially in sectors like semiconductors and defense—are reshaping the investment landscape. Grayson reflects on the unique blend of complacency and optimism in today’s markets, the uncertain returns on massive AI-driven CapEx, and the importance of management quality and adaptability in navigating this new era.

Key highlights:

U.S. markets are experiencing a rare surge in capital spending, driven by AI, reshoring, defense, and infrastructure—marking a departure from decades of just-in-time, low-investment environments.
The U.S. government’s direct stakes in companies like Intel signal a move toward more strategic, state-influenced capitalism, reminiscent of crisis or wartime interventions but now focused on critical industries.
Despite significant investment, most companies have yet to realize meaningful returns from generative AI. The market’s optimism may be outpacing actual productivity gains, raising questions about long-term ROI.
The team seeks diversified exposure to transformative themes (e.g., AI, automation) without betting on single winners, emphasizing companies with adaptable management and clear execution plans.
Rising CapEx, persistent inflation drivers, and government intervention create both risks and opportunities. The focus remains on businesses resilient to macro shifts and capable of thriving across scenarios.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB – Portfolio Manager

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Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the global credit opportunities strategy, explores the current credit market environment characterized by tight spreads and low defaults despite global uncertainties. He discusses the concept of "convergence and complacency"—where large pools of capital chase lower-quality borrowers while markets overlook serious warning signs including political pressure on central banks and hidden leverage. The conversation covers key crisis indicators, the weakening of credit covenants over the past decade, and the risks associated with private credit. He outlines the portfolio’s defensive positioning with high-quality, short-duration securities and highlights Saturn Oil and Gas as an example of selective opportunities that still favor lenders. He concludes with insights on how AI is enhancing the investment process while emphasizing that technology cannot replace the importance of human relationships in credit analysis.

Key Takeaways:

• How the Global Credit team approaches today's tight spread environment by focusing on capital preservation rather than reaching for yield, positioning for future market dislocations when opportunities will emerge.

• The key early warning indicators to monitor for potential credit market stress, including hedge fund liquidations, counterparty credit reductions, and central bank intervention patterns.

• The reality behind private credit's popularity: —understanding whether the additional ~200 basis points over public high yield adequately compensates for illiquidity, reduced transparency, and higher fees.

• The critical importance of credit covenant analysis in the investment process, and how the shift toward borrower-friendly terms over the past decade has reduced lender protections.

• The rationale behind the Saturn Oil and Gas investment, highlighting how disciplined management, forced deleveraging through quarterly bond buybacks, and attractive spreads create value in a challenging market.

• How AI technology is being integrated to enhance the investment process through improved issuer triage and covenant comparison, while maintaining the essential human relationships that drive successful credit investing.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA - Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Brian Carney, CIM – Portfolio Manager

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In this episode equity analyst Dominic Drzazga discusses the current state of Canadian small caps, highlighting how geopolitical volatility creates both challenges and opportunities. The conversation covers recent portfolio additions including Sprott's precious metals trust and Kraken's underwater robotics technology, while reflecting on the bittersweet exit of long-time holding Andlauer. Dom also shares insights into how the research team is utilizing AI tools within their process.

Key Takeaways:

How the Canadian Small Cap team navigates market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, emphasizing capital preservation while remaining opportunistic.
The team’s disciplined inventory assessment process, highlighting how they maintain a robust pipeline of potential investments and actively monitor over 50 companies.
The rationale behind recent portfolio moves, including the addition of Sprott for stable precious metals exposure and Kraken Robotics for its leadership in underwater robotics and defense sector growth.
The process-driven approach to exits—e.g., the Andlauer takeout as an example of balancing near-term value realization with long-term potential.
An inside look at how AI and internal innovation—such as the “earnings monitor agent”—are streamlining research workflows and enhancing investment decision-making.

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Paul Moroz returns to The Art of Boring podcast after three years, discussing his reappointment as lead manager of Mawer's global equity strategy. Paul outlines the team’s strategic approach to portfolio repositioning and reflects on how the investment landscape has evolved over the past five years. He emphasizes increased diversification, better alignment with other Mawer strategies, and a more balanced approach to market exposure.

Key Takeaways:

Paul Moroz and David Ragan have returned to the global equity strategy with renewed energy and focus
The portfolio is increasing its number of holdings for improved diversification and resilience, creating more "chess pieces on the board" Adjustments include boosting technology exposure and reducing positions with weakening business fundamentals
The team is moving quickly but methodically, with most changes expected in the coming months and a return to typical turnover rates thereafter.
Highlighted changes in the last five years: technology’s rapid evolution, the rise of capital-light business models, and shifts in passive vs. active investing. But despite structural changes, human psychology remains a constant driver of market behavior. This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.
Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode Canadian bond portfolio manager, Crista Caughlin, and balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher discuss Q2’s market and economic activity. Topics covered include “Liberation Day's” tariff shocks, central bank policies, inflation, and other themes.

Key Takeaways:

The announcement and subsequent deferral of sweeping U.S. tariffs caused significant market volatility, with a sharp initial selloff followed by a rapid recovery. The uncertainty around trade policy had a pronounced impact on economic growth expectations and market sentiment.
The quarter featured slowing growth in both the U.S. and Canada, with notable weakness in consumer spending and business investment. Despite expectations, inflation remained contained, and employment data presented a mixed picture—stronger in the U.S., weaker in Canada.
Central banks responded differently to domestic economic conditions. The ECB cut rates twice due to weaker growth and contained inflation, while the Fed and Bank of Canada adopted a wait-and-see approach, maintaining a dovish bias but holding rates steady.
There was a notable reversal in equity performance trends, with international and emerging market equities outperforming U.S. equities. This—among other factors—raised questions about the potential end of U.S. exceptionalism, though we remain cautious against drawing premature conclusions.
Credit spreads tightened to multi-decade lows, reflecting either investor confidence or complacency. Interest rates remained range-bound despite volatility, and the structural shift to higher neutral rates appears to have already occurred in recent years.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guests: Crista Caughlin, CFA – Portfolio Manager Steven Visscher, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Justin Anderson, Mawer’s Chief Technology Officer, sits down to discuss the evolving “build-in vs. build-out” technology framework. Justin explains how Mawer approaches technology decisions—balancing vendor solutions with in-house customization—and shares practical examples from the firm, including proprietary solutions such as trade&MAWER and M42. The conversation explores how advances in AI and large language models are accelerating the shift toward more tailored, efficient solutions. He also offers insights for investors on what to look for in management teams as organizations adapt to rapid technological change.

Key Takeaways:

The “build-in vs. build-out” framework focuses on how companies customize technology for their unique needs, beyond simply buying or building from scratch.
Advances in AI and large language models are making it easier and more cost-effective to develop in-house solutions.
Mawer’s internal platforms, such as trade&MAWER and M42, demonstrate the benefits of a build-out approach.
Leadership and culture are critical—successful organizations encourage experimentation, embrace new technology, and balance innovation with risk management.
Investors should look for companies whose management teams understand technology, address technical debt, and foster a culture of curiosity and adaptability.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Justin Anderson, CFA, MSc, Chief Technology Officer

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer’s Canadian large cap strategy, discusses the ongoing volatility in oil, the unique role of gold, the outlook for Canadian banks, and the potential impact of recent political changes. Mark also shares how the Mawer team is leveraging AI to enhance their investment process and decision-making.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil Market: Global demand is rising, driven by economic growth and higher incomes, while supply is shaped by geopolitics, OPEC, and technology.

• Canadian Banks: Loan growth is slow and provisions are higher amid uncertainty, but banks remain well-capitalized and stable.

• Political Change: New pro-growth policies in Canada could boost productivity and create investment opportunities, especially in infrastructure and financials.

• Gold’s role: Gold remains a store of value; Mawer prefers low-cost producers and streaming/royalty models.

• AI Integration: AI is streamlining research, improving efficiency, and generating new investment ideas using proprietary data and tools.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Join Peter Lampert, Portfolio Manager of Mawer's Emerging Markets strategy, as he takes you on a journey from Polish meat counters to UAE boardrooms, revealing how a disciplined bottom-up approach uncovers extraordinary opportunities in overlooked markets.

Key Takeaways:

• Mawer’s bottom-up philosophy is consistent across markets, but emerging markets require a nuanced focus on the macro and geopolitical environment.

• Emerging markets are highly diverse and less efficient, often offering more opportunities for disciplined, active investors.

• On-the-ground research—such as recent trips to Poland—helps uncover overlooked businesses and understand local dynamics.

• Portfolio examples include Dino Polska and Asseco Poland, both selected for strong management and growth prospects.

• The asset class is much broader than China; significant opportunities exist in countries like Poland and the UAE.

• Emphasis on long-term growth, resilience, and finding companies that can thrive in uncertain environments.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Karan Phadke, Portfolio Manager for Mawer’s global small cap strategy, shares insights on how small caps are navigating trade policy volatility, the importance of proactive management, and Mawer’s unique approach to process improvement and AI integration in investment research.

Key points from this episode:

• Small caps’ local focus provides insulation from global trade volatility.

Importance of proactive management teams in uncertain environments.

• Mawer’s “ant model” drives continuous process improvement and collaboration.

• Systematic thesis tracking and biweekly case studies enhance investment discipline.

• AI and proprietary data are integrated into Mawer’s research process.

• Emphasis on not outsourcing critical thinking and decision-making.

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, global equity co-manager, Manar Hassan-Agha, examines how tariff policies have created uncertainty for businesses, particularly impacting capital deployment decisions and supply chains. Manar explains how a focus on asset-light, service-oriented businesses with recurring revenue provides resilience during volatile periods, with limited direct exposure to tariff-vulnerable exports. Through specific company examples like Admiral Group, UnitedHealth, and a beauty products business, he illustrates how the team evaluates short-term price movements versus long-term intrinsic value, emphasizing the importance of disciplined position sizing and maintaining a balanced, diversified portfolio across geographies and market caps during uncertain times.

Recent tariff policies have created uncertainty for businesses, affecting capital deployment decisions and generating both direct impacts and second-order effects on consumer spending
The Global Equity Portfolio has limited direct exposure to tariff-vulnerable exports, with a preference for asset-light, service-oriented businesses with recurring revenue
Short-term price movements often contain significant randomness, highlighting the importance of focusing on long-term business fundamentals rather than reacting to news flow
Market volatility can create investment opportunities, particularly in companies with temporarily impacted profitability but intact long-term earnings power
Maintaining portfolio balance and diversification across quality factors, valuations, geographies and market caps remains essential during uncertain times

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Manar Hassan-Agha, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, we discuss the defense industry's evolution with equity analyst Joshua Samuel. He highlights the historical underinvestment in European defense, the recent increase in defense spending, particularly Germany's program, and the strategic importance of land systems. The conversation highlights how the current geopolitical environment has transformed defense from an underperforming sector to an investment opportunity, though valuations for companies like Rheinmetall now reflect much of this potential. Key Takeaways:

Historical Underinvestment: European military spending dropped dramatically from 2.75% of GDP during the Cold War to approximately 1.3% over the last decade. This resulted in significant inventory reduction (77% fewer tanks, 57% fewer aircraft) and industry consolidation.
Germany's Leadership: Germany's substantial defense spending package has garnered attention, though not all European countries have the same fiscal capacity to increase military budgets at the same rate.
Supply Chain Constraints: Decades of underinvestment created production bottlenecks that can't be solved quickly. Companies like Rheinmetall, which maintained investment during lean periods, are well-positioned with superior production technology and cost structures.
Investment Perspective: European defense companies offer potentially higher growth opportunities than U.S. counterparts due to the lower baseline of European defense spending and greater headroom for increases. Companies with established platforms typically present lower investment risk than those developing new technologies.
Strategic Autonomy: With the U.S. potentially reducing its global security role, European nations are recognizing the need for self-sufficiency in defense capabilities to protect their interests and sovereignty.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Director, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Joshua Samuel, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, portfolio manager, Peter Lampert discusses international equities and the impact of tariffs on portfolio management. He provides insights into how his team has been preparing for potential tariffs since Trump's campaign, explaining that most of their international portfolio companies have limited export exposure to the U.S. and instead operate primarily in domestic markets across various regions. He highlights their strategic decision to exit positions that are heavily dependent on global trade, while maintaining confidence in businesses with resilient management teams capable of navigating economic uncertainty. He also shares personal strategies for maintaining a clear head during market volatility and points out some underappreciated silver linings amid tariff concerns.

Key points from this episode:

How the international equity team prepared for tariff risks during Trump's campaign, viewing market reactions in February as too benign given potential economic impacts.
Many companies in their international portfolio have minimal direct exposure to U.S. tariffs, with many operating domestic U.S. businesses or serving their local markets, like Compass (UK-based catering company with 60% US revenue).
The importance of emotional discipline, especially during market volatility, and having a team structure that promotes rational decision-making.
Potential silver linings that may have been overlooked by markets, including Europe's increased investment in defense and infrastructure, and China's opportunity to shift toward more domestic consumption.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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In this Quarterly episode, Crista Caughlin, lead portfolio manager for Canadian bonds, and Jeff Mo, lead portfolio manager for U.S. midcaps, discuss market performance through Q1 2025 and the significant volatility that followed in early Q2—particularly after "Liberation Day" when the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs, followed by retaliation from other countries, and then a partial pause. The discussion explores how these trade tensions have created uncertainty affecting business confidence, consumer spending, and investment decisions. Crista explains that the growth outlook has worsened due to this uncertainty, regardless of whether tariffs ultimately reach 10%, 25% or are delayed. Both emphasize the team’s investment approach during this volatility relies on maintaining a disciplined process, avoiding "hero trades," and carefully modeling potential impacts on individual companies. Key points from this episode:

The Trump administration initiated significant trade tensions in early Q2 2025 with "Liberation Day" and the imposition of sweeping tariffs, followed by retaliatory actions from other countries, causing major market volatility before some tariffs were paused on April 9th (except those on China, which remain at 125%).
Even before the full implementation of tariffs, business confidence and consumer spending were negatively impacted by uncertainty, with examples of furloughed workers, delayed investments, and cautious spending behaviors from both the private sector and government employees.
Central banks are in a difficult "wait and see" position regarding interest rates as they cannot fully overcome the effects of a trade war but will try to help economies adjust while monitoring whether tariff-induced inflation becomes structurally embedded.
The asset mix committee has maintained a neutral position in equities throughout the volatility, with a slight shift from U.S. equities toward international markets (particularly Europe) to benefit from potential structural tailwinds.
The investment team emphasizes maintaining adherence to a disciplined process during market turbulence.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests:

Crista Caughlin, CFA, Portfolio Manager

Jeff Mo, CFA, Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Mawer President and portfolio manager, Jim Hall, discusses the current market environment and the team's approach to risk management. The conversation covers what triggered the vast volatility and uncertainty seen in markets, potential scenarios to come, and what the team at Mawer is doing about it. He emphasizes the importance of staying calm, being prepared, and diversifying portfolios to manage risks.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Jim Hall, CFA, MBA, President, Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, U.S. mid cap equity portfolio manager, Jeff Mo, discusses the market's sharp sell-off following President Trump's announcement of widespread tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. He provides both short and long-term perspectives on potential economic impacts, including reduced business investment and consumer spending, while explaining that Mawer's investment approach during this volatility remains focused on preparation as opposed to prediction.

Key Takeaways:

"Liberation Day" Tariffs - Trump administration announced widespread tariffs (10-40%) on most trading partners, surprising markets with their scope and scale.
Market & Economic Response - S&P 500 dropped nearly 5% in one day with bond yields falling; concerns about negative impacts on global growth, business investment, and supply chains
Consumer Sentiment Impact - Potential weakening of consumer spending due to market losses ("wealth effect") and general uncertainty affecting household financial decisions
Investment Strategy in Volatility - Mawer's investment approach focuses on preparation over prediction, maintaining a portfolio of quality companies while making only marginal adjustments during market turbulence

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. --

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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In this episode, we discuss the early months of the new U.S. administration with Grayson Witcher, lead portfolio manager for the U.S. equity strategy at Mawer. Grayson touches on the impact of tariffs, including the practical and unpredictable aspects of tariffs and how they influence decision-making. Grayson also shares insights on the potential long-term effects of the AI boom and highlights recent portfolio adjustments in response to evolving market dynamics.

Key Takeaways:

The market initially surged post-election but has since reversed, with the S&P 500 dropping below election day levels. Policy shifts have hit sectors like pharma, defense, and life sciences. Volatility is rising, inflation concerns persist, and consumer caution is growing. [00:01:34]
The current investment approach focuses on avoiding industries most exposed to tariffs, such as autos, agriculture, and luxury exports. Short-term risks include inflation and declining consumer confidence, while long-term consequences are harder to predict. Tariffs may push foreign competitors to innovate and expand globally. [00:07:01]
When thinking about the impact of AI on the market, the U.S. equity team focuses on identifying at-risk industries and long-term beneficiaries. Instead of betting on specific AI technologies, they invest in broader themes. [00:15:45]
While the portfolio remains largely stable, they have made minor changes due to advances in AI and current market volatility, exiting companies due to the anticipated impact AI will have on them. [00:17:33]

As global tensions rise and deglobalization trends continue, demand for enhanced border security and cargo inspection is increasing. A recent portfolio addition is OSI Systems, a security screening company specializing in cargo, airport, and venue security. [00:21:25]

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, we discuss credit markets with Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Global Credit Opportunities strategy. Brian touches on the tightening of credit spreads, risks in the leveraged loan market, and the limited compensation for high-yield bonds relative to their risks. He also reviews concerns about U.S. government credit quality, private credit profitability, and corporate policy shifts. Looking back on Mawer's GCO strategy performance in 2024, Brian highlights future plans for growth, process refinement, and team expansion.

Key Takeaways:

Credit spreads are tightening across all markets, benefiting investors but reducing risk premiums. U.S.-centric policies support domestic companies, yet lenders may not share in the gains. Brian recommends investors avoid chasing yield in lower-quality or long-duration bonds.
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) drive the $1.2 trillion leveraged loan market, with issuance surging in 2024. This leverage-heavy, opaque market raises concerns about risk-taking. If dislocation occurs, leveraged loans could suffer alongside high-yield bonds, making it a key area for monitoring.
High-yield bonds offer 7% returns, but history shows adding even 25% to a portfolio can significantly increase downside risk. With only a 0.6% incremental yield benefit today, investors aren’t adequately compensated for the risk, making caution more prudent than yield chasing.
Concerns include the U.S. government's credit quality, private credit’s profitability favoring managers over investors, and ensuring portfolio companies maintain long-term stability despite short-term policy shifts. Monitoring these factors closely remains a priority.
Future plans for Mawer’s GCO strategy include expanding individual and institutional adoption, refining processes, leveraging technology, and selectively growing the team.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher, covers 2024 performance, asset allocation decisions, trade uncertainty, potential tariffs, and AI-driven productivity growth. Above all, he emphasizes long-term discipline, diversification, and avoiding emotional investment decisions in an unpredictable market environment. Key Takeaways:

The balanced portfolio saw strong absolute returns in 2024, with all asset classes performing well. Despite early economic concerns, inflation eased without a recession. Relative performance lagged benchmarks, causing some disappointment.
The portfolio maintained a neutral 60% equity target in 2024, trimming gains to manage risk. A key structural shift was introducing a 3% allocation to U.S. mid-caps, enhancing diversification and improving valuation metrics by targeting medium-sized companies with long-term growth potential.
Tariffs and policy shifts are monitored but not pre-positioned for in asset allocation due to their unpredictability. Instead, adjustments occur at the security level, reallocating capital to businesses more resilient to potential trade impacts while managing risk within the portfolio.
The impact of trade and tariffs on global growth, currency volatility, and policy responses, with heightened uncertainty in 2025.
A potential productivity boom is emerging, driven by political shifts favoring deregulation and the broader integration of AI beyond tech giants into operational efficiency.
In the face of uncertainty, staying diversified and committed to a long-term strategy is key. Avoid emotional decisions, resist short-term speculation, and trust in a disciplined approach that has proven effective over time despite market fluctuations. Keep perspective and stay the course.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Balanced

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, we discuss the escalation of U.S./Canada tariff tensions with Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer’s Canadian equity strategy. Mark provides historical context of how we got here; highlights the potential economic impact tariffs may have on the Canadian economy; provides specific portfolio holding examples of how businesses and industries may be affected; and mentions several potential benefits for Canada. Ultimately, he stresses that adhering to a disciplined, long-term investment approach is vital amid uncertainty. Key Takeaways:

In the U.S., manufacturing’s decline has driven trade and financial deficits, exacerbated by a strong dollar. Tariffs aim to correct these imbalances.
Being diversified and adjusting portfolio positioning from a bottom-up and scenario planning lens is key amidst uncertainty.
Tariffs could cause a potential Canadian recession, a weaker dollar, and lower interest rates. The team is monitoring U.S. dollar strength, risk havens, and possible global currency interventions while assessing the broader economic impact of tariffs on prices and growth
On the flip side, Canada could benefit from reduced internal trade barriers, increased infrastructure and energy projects, and greater political will to attract capital—potentially driving long-term economic growth, job creation, and higher tax revenues.
For now, the recommendation is to focus on “prepare don’t predict,” maintain discipline amid market swings, avoid rash decisions, monitor exposures, and seek long-term opportunities.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. --

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, we discuss 2024's economic landscape and what to expect in 2025, with Crista Caughlin, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer Canadian bond strategy. Crista highlights U.S. and Canadian growth trends, central bank rate adjustments, housing market dynamics, equity and fixed-income performance, and political uncertainties. She also discusses Mawer’s asset allocation strategy, balancing risks with opportunities amidst shifting fiscal policies, trade tensions, and global economic developments heading into 2025.

Key Takeaways:

The year 2024 saw resilient U.S. growth despite headwinds, while Canada faced weaker growth and higher unemployment. Q4 showed modest improvements in Canadian growth and employment, but inflation trends potentially shifted upward in both regions late in the year.
In 2024, the Bank of Canada aggressively eased rates, cutting 175 basis points, responding to weaker growth and target-level inflation. The Fed eased more gradually, cutting 100 basis points, as robust U.S. growth supported higher rates. Both central banks aimed to shift from restrictive to less restrictive policies.
Political changes in Canada and the U.S. have created uncertainty for fiscal policies and trade dynamics. Tariffs pose risks to Canadian growth and inflation. Central banks remain cautious, awaiting policy clarity while navigating trade and economic interdependencies.
The Canadian housing market faces reduced pressure due to Bank of Canada rate cuts and proactive bank measures like extended amortization. However, 2025's higher mortgage renewals at elevated rates pose ongoing risks to household spending and economic growth.
Equity markets posted strong 2024 returns, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, AI growth, and financial sector strength. Fixed-income returns were flat in Q4 but solid annually, with tightening spreads and rising Canadian 10-year rates prompting a defensive portfolio stance.
The asset mix committee maintained a neutral equity stance, underweight bonds, and overweight cash in 2024, balancing hard landing concerns with market momentum. Key 2025 themes include fiscal policy uncertainty, global deficits, higher neutral rates, and opportunistic portfolio adjustments to enhance diversification.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

--

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode we discuss the Canadian equity market with Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer’s Canadian equity strategy. Mark highlights the key drivers behind Canadian equities' strong 2024 performance, highlighting standout sectors like technology, financials, energy midstream, and gold. He also examines challenges in telecommunications and real estate, discusses risks from slower economic growth, inflation, and higher mortgage rates, and emphasizes strategic portfolio adjustments.

Key Takeaways:

Canadian equities excelled in 2024, driven by strong performance in technology, financials, energy midstream, and gold companies. Elevated valuations now prompt focus on sustainable growth and identifying new opportunities.
In 2024, banks benefited from moderated loan growth, margin expansion, cost controls, and strong wealth management and capital markets earnings.
Canadian insurance companies transitioned to stable earnings through improved product mixes, rational competition, and capital efficiency.
Industries facing challenges or weaknesses in Canada include telecommunications (regulatory pricing pressures, rising competition, and higher refinancing costs) and real estate (expensive debt refinancing, softer industrial demand, and slower rent growth).
Looking ahead to 2025, key risks for Canada include slower economic growth, inflation-driven policy shifts, a weakening Canadian dollar, and higher mortgage refinancing rates.
To maintain strong portfolio performance, the focus will be on recycling capital into undervalued opportunities, prioritizing bottom-up analysis, and consistently selecting companies with strong fundamentals, aligned management, and reasonable valuations.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: LinkedIn - / mawer-investment-management Instagram - / https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, we discuss Mawer’s EAFE large cap portfolio with Ian Turnbull, an equity analyst at Mawer. Ian explores the portfolio's diversification benefits, offering exposure to resilient, high-quality companies in 21 markets such as the Nordics, Switzerland, and Singapore. The team targets proven companies with strong moats and global leadership. Key holdings include Wolters Kluwer, BAE, and Chugai. AI's potential in healthcare R&D is highlighted, though regulatory hurdles persist. The team emphasizes balancing risks, leveraging themes like pharma innovation, defense, electrification, and AI, and addressing geopolitical uncertainties for a resilient, long-term portfolio.

Key Takeaways:

• The EAFE Large Cap portfolio provides diversification, mitigating risks like U.S. concentration and valuation fragility. It offers compelling opportunities in smaller, well-performing countries like the Nordics, Switzerland, and Singapore. The team’s bottom-up approach targets high-quality companies, emphasizing resilience and long-term potential across 21 diverse markets.

• Mawer defines large cap as the top two-thirds of the MSCI EAFE Index ($11B market cap), favoring proven, resilient companies with established moats, economies of scale, and global leadership, tested through cycles and challenges.

• Highlighting a few key holdings, Wolters Kluwer’s successful shift from print to digital boosted recurring revenue, customer stickiness, and margin expansion, with AI enhancing value creation and growth.

• Another top holding, BAE, benefits from stable government funding and high capital returns. With new management and growing defense spending, it offers strong growth potential, especially in Europe, amid rising geopolitical tensions.

• Chugai, a top holding in Japan, was once a distributor for Roche but has evolved into a key R&D engine, developing successful treatments like Hemlibra. Its GLP-1 partnership with Eli Lilly offers strong upside potential.

• AI in healthcare R&D promises faster drug discovery, optimizing early-stage processes and reducing costs, benefiting companies with strong R&D cultures while still facing regulatory limits in clinical stages. Valuation in pharma is complex, especially with competition in GLP-1s.

• The EAFE Large Cap team focuses on creating a resilient portfolio by balancing risks, seeking contradictions between holdings, and ensuring exposure to key themes like pharma innovation, defense, electrification, and AI, while monitoring geopolitical risks and tariffs.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA,

Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Ian Turnbull, CFA,

Mawer Equity Analyst

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, we discuss the U.S. mid-cap landscape with Jeff Mo, manager of the U.S. mid cap equity strategy at Mawer. Jeff touches on risk management, emphasizing disciplined adherence to investment philosophy and the benefits of balancing risk and return through natural contradictions, like pairing discretionary consumer-focused SharkNinja with countercyclical firms such as FTI Consulting. Additional topics include preemptive risk management, maintaining an all-weather portfolio, and leveraging a robust inventory process to adapt. Key Takeaways:

In a hot market, risk management means resisting the temptation to chase speculative trends or high-growth fads without competitive advantages. Instead, it requires disciplined adherence to an investment philosophy—prioritizing quality businesses with strong fundamentals and sustainable value.
Purposeful diversification includes inherent contradictions, ensuring steady wealth creation across interest rate cycles by balancing companies benefiting from both low- and high-rate environments.
Despite recent market volatility and election-related uncertainties, the focus remains on maintaining an all-weather strategy. The team continues to evaluate companies based on fundamentals and earnings, with no drastic portfolio adjustments needed during this time.
Inventory is crucial for risk management, providing a range of high-quality, pre-analyzed options. Mawer’s extensive, multi-stage inventory process ensures quick access to companies with competitive advantages, allowing for strategic, timely decisions based on evolving market conditions.
To illustrate natural contradiction, Jeff shares details on specific holdings. SharkNinja's competitive edge lies in its rapid product development, allowing market share growth despite its consumer discretionary risks. To balance, the portfolio includes companies like FTI Consulting and CACI, which thrive in different market conditions, providing stability through natural contradictions.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, we discuss key trends and positioning in credit markets with Brian Carney, lead portfolio manager of the Mawer global credit opportunities strategy. We touch on the year’s strong performance driven by tighter spreads, higher yields, and emerging risks such as low risk premiums and the U.S. election. Topics include corporate issuance, fallen angels, and public-private credit convergence. Emphasizing capital preservation, Brian highlights portfolio positioning in high-quality, short-duration securities, such as North American bank bonds, while avoiding high-yield exposure.

Key Takeaways:

Credit markets have performed well this year, driven by tighter spreads and higher benchmark yields, but risk premiums are historically low. Brian suggests investors prioritize capital preservation over chasing yield, avoiding high-yield bonds and long-dated credit. Post-U.S. election, vigilance is key amid potential policy-driven market shifts.
Trends in the past quarter include fallen angels, commercial real estate risks, and potential high-yield defaults.
An actively managed, absolute return credit strategy offers diversification, income, and potential capital appreciation while protecting against adverse credit and interest rate moves. It’s ideal for long-term investors seeking alternatives to passive strategies and opportunities in volatile or distorted markets.
Brian recommends investors view absolute return credit as a long-term allocation, not for market timing. Market dislocations are brief, and panic often prevents opportunistic moves.
Mawer’s portfolio is managed bottom-up, focusing on individual credit assessments to mitigate risk and seize opportunities. It prioritizes short-duration, high-quality holdings, avoids high yield, and ensures diversification with a maximum issuer cap of 10%, balancing downside risk and concentrated positions.
Optimism abounds for long-term credit opportunities and future discussions on continued progress.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA

Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Brian Carney, CIM Mawer Portfolio Manager, Fixed Income

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: LinkedIn - / mawer-investment-management Instagram - / https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, we discuss the global equity strategy with Christian Deckart, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Mawer. Christian stresses managing absolute risk over relative risk for better long-term outcomes and details Mawer’s approach to risk management, focusing on decision-making, portfolio risks, and external factors such as government debt and rising rates. He also discusses adapting to AI trends, preferring companies leveraging AI applications over infrastructure investments. He emphasizes maintaining focus on fundamentals amid evolving global and technological landscapes.

Key Takeaways:

Effective risk management begins with a sound decision-making culture, clear accountability, and thorough evaluation of securities, portfolios, and systemic exposures to avoid unintended biases.
Market and portfolio vulnerabilities include rising government debt, interest rate shocks, hidden real estate losses, over-specialized economies, and investor psychology driven by greed and fear. Disciplined risk management and avoiding overreliance or shortsighted behaviors in markets are important keys to success.
While AI and semiconductor stocks dominate attention, there are overlooked opportunities in the broader U.S. market, diverse, underappreciated companies that meet rigorous criteria at attractive valuations.
Christian highlights investments with potential to leverage AI applications for competitive advantage and long-term profitability beyond initial AI infrastructure trends.
While the global equity strategy's absolute performance in 2024 is strong, relative performance lags the benchmark due to its different composition, particularly the focus on stable, "boring" businesses versus high-growth sectors like AI infrastructure.
Christian attributes the global equity strategy's underperformance to its broader diversification compared to the benchmark, with a larger focus on stable, recurring businesses and less emphasis on high-growth sectors like AI, particularly in the U.S. market.

Host Name and title: Rob Campbell, CFA Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest names and titles: Christian Deckart, CFA, PhD Director, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: LinkedIn - / mawer-investment-management Instagram - / https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, we discuss market insights with two representatives from the trading desk: Rita Tien, who trades the Americas from Toronto, and Peter Dmytruk, who trades Asia from Singapore. Rita and Peter highlight the complexities of trading, emphasizing the importance of regional differences and the role of the trading desk in executing investment decisions. They discuss the impact of the Japanese carry trade, the shift to T+1 settlement cycles in the U.S. and Canada, and the influence of ETFs and retail investors on market volatility. They also touch on the role of multi-strategy hedge funds and the challenges of managing market risks. The conversation underscores the need for long-term investment strategies and the importance of understanding market structures and dynamics.

Key Takeaways:

The trading desk plays a critical role in executing investment decisions effectively, navigating market nuances and regional differences.
Market events like U.S. elections and Fed rate decisions significantly impact markets, requiring traders to discern meaningful signals from noise. While short-term volatility is challenging, the focus remains on executing trades aligned with long-term strategies.
The Japanese carry trade impacts markets, influencing businesses and structured products. Sudden market moves, like Japan's interest rate hike, highlight the importance of communication to assess potential impacts on investment theses.
In the U.S. and Canada, the shift to T+1 settlement reduces settlement risk and margin requirements by accelerating fund transfers but adds complexity for global trades due to mismatched settlement cycles.
Market volatility is influenced by zero-day options, high-frequency trading, retail investor activity, and leveraged ETFs. Retail-driven markets such as India, Korea, and Taiwan showcase momentum-driven dynamics, while recent SEC rules aim to protect retail investors and improve liquidity access for institutional players.
ETFs significantly influence market dynamics, concentrating liquidity and volume, especially during closing auctions, where up to 20% of daily trading occurs. This impacts trade timing, crowding in top-weighted stocks, and creates potential price distortions affecting subsequent trading days.
Multi-strategy hedge funds, or "pod shops," drive market overcrowding by leveraging similar strategies, such as M&A arbitrage or index rebalancing. This amplifies market risks, creates volatility during downturns, and provides opportunities for disciplined long-term investors amid rapid shifts.
Crowded, momentum-driven trades fueled by leverage and quantitative models can create challenges for disciplined investors, though opportunities arise in volatility. Balancing exposure to popular names with underappreciated companies can mitigate risks while benefiting from structural market inefficiencies.

Host Name and title: Rob Campbell, CFA Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest names and titles: Peter Dmytruk, CFA, P. Eng. Trader Rita Tien Equity Trader For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: LinkedIn - / mawer-investment-management Instagram - / https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, Mawer portfolio managers and analysts discuss what they fundamentally look for in a bank as an investment. Specifically, how they view banks and the industry trends, as well as local dynamics, and ultimately what makes each of these businesses both unique and attractive. David Ragan discusses Scandinavian banks, highlighting Handelsbanken's smart lending and DNB's stability. Josh Samuel analyzes DBS in Singapore, emphasizing its low cost of funds and high ROE. Grayson Witcher focuses on J.P. Morgan in the U.S., noting its strong management and unique financial assets, while Alex Romaines examines First Citizens Bank in the U.S., which capitalized on market turmoil. Mark Rutherford covers Canadian banks, noting their conservative strategies and high ROE. Siying Li discusses HDFC Bank in India, and Asim Hussain explores Mitsubishi UFJ in Japan, emphasizing their unique upward-sloping yield curve.

Key Takeaways:

The ideal bank investment is stable, lends to reliable clients, and operates in a rational, well-regulated market. Diversification in lending, funding, and economic exposure helps prevent insolvency and builds resilience, crucial in a highly leveraged industry.
The Scandinavian banking environment is stable and well-regulated, with rational competition and prudent lending. Banks like Sweden's Handelsbanken and Norway's DNB provide consistent returns, low loan losses, and steady growth, supported by smaller, consolidated markets and strong economic stability.
DBS in Singapore sustains strong net interest margins and 15–16% ROE. Strong management boosts investor returns through higher payouts, reducing risks from limited growth in foreign markets.
U.S. banks face intense competition with little brand differentiation, often competing on interest rates alone. While experienced in managing risk, they are vulnerable in recessions. Banks trade at lower valuations than other sectors due to weaker competitive advantage.
J.P. Morgan stands out in the U.S. market due to its strong management, high returns, low leverage, and strategic acquisitions during downturns. It diversifies through unique assets, investment banking, and asset management, enhancing resilience.
The U.S. banking industry is fragmented and competitive, with a history of crises. Fragility creates opportunities for well-managed banks trading below intrinsic value.
Canadian banks are highly consolidated and operate with a leveraged model, lending and raising equity. They now generate significant revenue from wealth management and insurance, reducing dependence on loan spreads. Strong regulatory relationships foster stability, with banks earning attractive returns while supporting economic growth.
HDFC Bank, India’s largest private bank, has strong management and benefits from a growing economy. With low non-performing loans and high ROE, it continues gaining market share from public sector banks, despite short-term challenges from its recent acquisition.
Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's largest bank, has a rich history and significant market share. With an upward-sloping yield curve and a focus on digitalization, it stands to benefit from rising interest rates, driving potential profit growth despite past challenges in the Japanese banking sector.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: David Ragan, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Joshua Samuel, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB Mawer Portfolio Manager, Alex Romaines, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Mark Rutherford, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Siying, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst, Asim Hussain, CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - / mawer-investment-management

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In this episode, Peter Lampert, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Strategy, discusses the recent Chinese stimulus and its effects on emerging markets. He highlights key long-term risks in China, including weak sentiment, regulatory challenges, and geopolitical tensions, while emphasizing the potential of companies like Tencent and Tencent Music. The conversation also covers Turkey's Bim, a discount retailer thriving amid economic uncertainty. Peter explains how the portfolio's success stems from stock selection, especially with stealth performers like Vietnam’s FPT and Taiwan’s IGS, and the importance of balancing macro risks with company-specific growth potential.

Key Takeaways:

•China's recent stimulus signals a shift from restrictive policies to boosting economic growth, leveraging the U.S. Fed's easing cycle to inject liquidity and stabilize the economy.

•The stimulus could mitigate three key challenges: weak consumer sentiment, regulatory uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. While long-term issues persist, the focus on growth reduces the likelihood of worst-case scenarios in the near term.

•Macro factors and bottom-up analysis are deeply intertwined in portfolio decisions. As risks shift, so do portfolio positions.

•Higher macro risks in China lead to applying higher discount rates and requiring better ROI. Growth projections for economically sensitive companies are adjusted lower due to structural challenges, leading to exits when valuations no longer meet the stricter risk criteria.

•Companies with independent growth drivers can perform well despite China's economic challenges, as they are less reliant on the broader economy and can thrive even in a weaker market environment.

•One example is Tencent, whose strong management, dominant WeChat position, and conservative monetization approach offer growth opportunities. Despite China's economic challenges, Tencent can pull monetization levers, making its valuation attractive amid broader pessimism.

•This year’s strong performance of the emerging markets portfolio has been driven by careful stock selection, focusing on lesser-known "stealth performers" like FPT, IGS, and Aegis Logistics, which consistently generate shareholder value.

•Peter highlighted one such performer: Bim, a Turkish discount retailer. Bim has thrived despite economic challenges. With Turkey's economic outlook improving, Bim is positioned for long-term success as it continues to offer value to consumers.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com

Follow us on social:

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https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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In this episode, Steven Visscher, lead manager of the balanced strategies, discusses the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on the balanced portfolio in recent years, Mawer’s disciplined and collaborative approach to portfolio construction, and the importance of having a long-term perspective. He spoke about recent changes and additions to the balanced portfolio and provided an update on the performance of the balanced portfolio thus far in 2024. Key Takeaways:

Over the last four years, interest rates and inflation have had the most significant impact on the capital markets and the performance of the balanced strategies.
Following a surge of inflation in 2022, central banks aggressively hiked rates, which led to the first meaningful loss in a balanced strategy since 2008.
After being called into question in 2022, 60/40 portfolios bounced back in 2023 and 2024 following positive fixed income returns, helping support the overall balanced strategy.
So far, the market recovery has been led by a narrow subset of businesses, most notably technology companies that are part of the euphoria around artificial intelligence (AI). These companies have experienced extraordinary returns and lifted benchmarks to new heights.
However, some of the Mawer balanced strategies weren't heavily exposed to those industries and have continued to trail their benchmarks on a relative basis.
Steven and his team think in a probabilistic way meaning that they are intellectually open to the fact that there are many scenarios that could unfold, and they want to have a certain amount of resilience regardless of the scenario.
The neutral stance of the balanced portfolio reflects the uncertainty of the current environment. The team’s base case scenario is that a recession may unfold over the next six to 12 months.
A small portion of capital from the U.S. equity strategy, which is more heavily biased toward larger U.S. businesses, has been shifted to a fairly new asset class, the U.S. mid-cap segment due to a valuation gap.
From a balanced perspective, the goal isn't to eliminate risk; it's to manage it.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Steven Visscher, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the third quarter of 2024.

Key points from this episode:

In the third quarter, most central banks either continued cutting rates – like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada – or started cutting rates – like the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Inflation risks have diminished and downside risks to growth and employment have increased, so central banks are responding with easier policy.
Crista believes the Bank of Canada will continue to make 25 basis point cuts at future meetings, but a 50-basis point cut is potentially on the table thanks to the Fed’s more aggressive cut.
Because central banks are easing policy and the market expects them to continue to do so, the yield curve has started to normalize.
All else equal, a faster, more aggressive central bank reduces the probability of a recession.
The third quarter was a Goldilocks scenario. Growth was weak enough to allow central banks to ease policy, which is really good for bonds and interest-rate-sensitive equity sectors, but it was not so weak that there were obvious signs of a recession.
Regardless of whether central bank easing corresponded to a recession or a soft landing, equities have historically gone higher and spreads tighter after the first central bank cut.
One of the main questions on Crista’s mind going into the fourth quarter: How long will growth and policy be tailwinds driving the markets?

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

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In this episode, Peter Lampert, lead portfolio manager of the International Equity Strategy, provides insights on the team’s investment process, the state of the portfolio, and the main drivers that are currently having an outsized impact on performance, namely, semiconductors, obesity medicines, and defense companies. He details his team’s rigorous approach to evaluating management teams from both a quantitative and qualitative standpoint, providing an in-depth example of Hitachi. The conversation concludes with a brief discussion of the current macro environment.

Key Takeaways:

As enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continues to grow, semiconductor companies have strong competitive advantages and dominant market share in their niche industries.
According to the team’s DCF model, the long-term growth rates of companies like TSCM have increased, so they have trimmed back some positions to manage risks.
With Novo Nordisk leading the way, the growing market for obesity drugs is expected to become the largest therapeutic drug class as more and more companies look to enter the space.
Amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong long-term investment case for select European defense companies, as European governments increase defense spending to protect Western values.
Regarding areas of opportunity, Peter highlighted the theme of improved corporate governance in Japan as companies in the country aim to meet global standards.
When evaluating a company’s management team from a qualitative perspective, there are four defining elements: Strategy, operational excellence, capital allocation, and trustworthiness.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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In this episode, Grayson Witcher, the lead manager of the U.S. Equity Strategy, discusses the key drivers currently impacting the U.S. economy, including inflation, interest rates, artificial intelligence, and the upcoming presidential election. He emphasizes the importance of diversification and avoiding sharp edges—particularly during an election year. Grayson outlines the importance of and reasoning for his team’s practice of monitoring company management changes in real-time and the value of investing in companies with strong leadership. Key Takeaways:

The three big themes driving the U.S. market over the past six months are interest rates and inflation, artificial intelligence, and the election.
While food, energy, and goods inflation has fallen, service inflation is proving to be a bit stickier, as it entails things like car insurance, rent, and medical services. Wage inflation has also remained relatively strong.
With artificial intelligence, there is no denying the initial hype and surrounding success of the excitement for companies like NVIDIA. However, the question remains as to whether the trend will continue or start to fizzle out, similar to other technology trends from the 90s and 2000s.
Regarding the upcoming U.S. election, both candidates’ agendas could impact the economy in inflationary ways, though the impacts would differ depending on the prevailing candidate.
For Grayson, his election strategy for the portfolio is to prepare, not predict. He avoids sharp edges, which are the industries and companies that are highly dependent on one outcome, and leans into diversification.
Within the U.S. portfolio, there are two main ways the team diversifies the single-country portfolio: diversification by geography and by industry or sub-industry.
For long-term investors, management and culture drive a significant amount of value because they reinvest the cash flows generated by these businesses, and they are responsible for managing risk.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Grayson Witcher, CFA, AB, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/the-u-s-equity-landscape-inflation-artificial-intelligence-and-elections-ep166

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com

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In this episode of the podcast, credit analyst Curtis Elkington provides a comprehensive overview of the $50 trillion global commercial real estate market. He covers the current headwinds facing various property sectors, such as pandemic-induced challenges in the office sector and touches on the surprising resilience of the retail segment. Elkington sheds light on the complexities of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market and details the credit analysis process his team uses to evaluate potential investments with examples.

Key points from this episode:

• Over the past four years, commercial real estate as an asset class has faced potentially the most significant of headwinds, most notably the pandemic and the rise in interest rates. • While the pandemic had a different impact on each property sector within commercial real estate, higher rates had a much more uniform impact across the various industries. • The overall size of the commercial real estate market, which includes multifamily, office, retail, and industrial properties, is massive. In 2023, Savills estimated the total global property value was $50 trillion, of which the U.S. is the largest component. • Vacancy and capitalization rates are the two primary metrics used to assess the health of the commercial real estate sectors. In office, both vacancy and capitalization rates have increased significantly since 2019. • According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the 25 largest commercial banks have ~$860 billion in commercial real estate loans, which is only 6% of their collective assets. All the other banks outside of the top 25 have $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans, but that accounts for 30% of their total assets. • Over the past six months, the risk-reward on the credit side for several real estate companies was unattractive in all scenarios. • Some market participants believe that upwards of $100 billion, or 15%, of U.S. CMBS is currently mis-rated. • The credit team does two main things in its intensive analysis credit review. They assign a Mawer credit rating that's tied to valuation, and they establish a margin of safety that's tied to downside production. • With commercial real estate, just like any potential investment, the team reviews each issue and issuer on a case-by-case basis following a thorough and rigorous process before committing investor capital.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Curtis Elkington, CFA, Mawer Credit Analyst

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/skyscrapers-and-storefronts-insights-on-the-commercial-real-estate-market-in-2024-ep165

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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In this episode, Crista Caughlin, lead Portfolio Manager of the Canadian Bond Strategy, and Brian Carney, lead Portfolio Manager of the Global Credit Opportunities Strategy, provide their thoughts on recent economic data releases, a shift in central bank language, and recent market volatility. They delve into new issuance activity in the U.S. and Canada, widening spreads in the investment-grade and high-yield markets, and current portfolio positioning. The conversation concludes with an update on the growth and expansion of Mawer’s fixed income team.

Key points from this episode:

Central banks have shifted their focus from solely targeting inflation to balancing inflation and growth risks, leading to the start of a global easing cycle.
Recession fears have increased due to weakening economic data, such as falling PMIs, rising unemployment, and weak growth, causing volatility in markets.
It remains to be seen if recent volatility is just a pocket or something more material. If growth remains robust, it's likely just a pocket that will right-size itself. If growth continues to weaken and signs of a U.S. recession continue to pick up, it could be a larger downturn.
The first half of the year has been smooth sailing for credit investors, but recent dislocations and changes resulted in significant widening in credit spreads.
New issuance activity has been robust in the U.S. and Canada, with the levels of investment grade and high-yield issuance year-to-date already exceeding last year’s volumes.
Commercial real estate has been a topical sector, but neither the Canadian bond strategy nor the global credit strategy have any direct exposure to real estate.
In terms of where yield curves are today, parts of the curves are still inverted, particularly recession indicators.
Both strategies hold Verizon Communications and Ford Credit Canada due to their favorable financial and operating metrics.

Host: Kevin Minas, Mawer Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Brian Carney, Mawer Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, Mawer Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/navigating-the-canadian-equity-landscape-dispersion-energy-transition-and-opportunities-ep163 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

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In this episode of the podcast, Mark Rutherford, Co-Manager of the Canadian Large-Cap Equity Strategy, discusses the current investment landscape in Canada, highlighting the wide dispersion in sector performance and the impact of central bank policies. He delves into the long-term theme of the global energy transition and its far-reaching effects on various market sectors in Canada. Insights into insurance and banking sector performance are provided, as well as examples of specific portfolio holdings within the Canadian Equity Strategy. Key points from this episode:

On the surface, healthy and attractive returns can be found across equity markets in Canada. However, there is quite a bit of dispersion under the surface.
Year to date, top-performing sectors include energy and materials – which have been the top performers for a few years now – while telecoms, real estate, and some utility stocks are lagging the market.
One longer-term theme that is top of mind, both for Canada and numerous countries around the world, is the ongoing energy transition.
Long-term opportunities that Canada is well positioned for include energy production, natural resources and renewables, critical minerals, and utilities.
AI has been a big driver of incremental change within the utilities sector. Companies like Fortis, Hydro One, and AltaGas are investing more every year and building up the rate base, which ultimately will grow their earnings over time.
One simple heuristic Mark’s team uses when evaluating portfolio construction and portfolio holdings is to ask where they see headwinds and where they see tailwinds.
Life insurance companies have benefited from higher interest rates and improved earnings mix, while banks are facing challenges due to slowing loan demand and higher provisions for loan losses.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/navigating-the-canadian-equity-landscape-dispersion-energy-transition-and-opportunities-ep163 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Portfolio Manager Manar Hassan-Agha discusses how the Global Equity Team navigates an exuberant market environment while staying true to Mawer’s disciplined investment approach. He delves into the potential impacts of emerging trends, namely artificial intelligence (AI), and provides examples of the team’s measured approach to evaluating the hype and sustainability of these trends. He emphasizes the value of temperament, alignment, and identifying mispriced high-quality companies. Key points from this episode:

When considering potential errors of omission, it's a delicate balance between learning and improving while also ensuring you're not learning the wrong things. It's a matrix of good-bad decisions and good-bad outcomes.
A deep dive on XP
A deep dive on Robert Half
We tend to overestimate the effects of new technology in the short term but underestimate them in the long run [Roy Amara], which could potentially apply to the current AI hype.
The asymmetry today, in our mind, around AI hype is that there's a lot of uncertainty around this, particularly with respect to what's embedded in the prices of stocks. The difficulty continues to be identifying losers versus winners in a longer-term perspective.
Chasing a theme is very difficult. You must be right on the theme and right on the securities in that theme while also not overpaying relative to the expectations already priced into the theme.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Manar Hassan-Agha, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/marbles-and-billiards-navigating-the-highs-and-lows-in-global-equity-ep162 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the second quarter of 2024.

Key points from this episode:

Because inflation is easing at a gradual pace, central banks with likely be cutting rates gradually.
We are at the end of a global tightening cycle and starting to see countries tweak their policies to better fit their domestic markets, but there is not and likely won’t be, a material divergence in the path forward among central banks.
The yield curve has been inverted for almost two years, which is longer than average. However, it's not the longest inversion on record. In the late 80s, the yield curve remained inverted for over two and a half years before a recession.
In continuation of the first quarter, equity markets did quite well again, with most reaching new highs during the quarter. The strength was primarily driven by a narrow segment of the market, notably technology.
From an asset mix perspective we continue to be neutral equities, overweight bonds, and underweight cash.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/quarterly-update-q2-2024 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Portfolio Manager Jeff Mo makes the case for investing in U.S. mid-cap equities, highlighting the country’s strong business environment, large domestic market, and GDP growth. He discusses current market trends, including artificial intelligence, and his team’s risk management evaluation, especially with a pivotal U.S. election looming on the horizon.

Key points from this episode:

The U.S. is an attractive market for investing due to its strong rule of law, business environment, and large domestic market.
Mid-caps are an investing sweet spot. While smaller companies struggle to gain competitive advantages, mid-caps have similar competitive advantages as large caps but with much more attractive growth profiles.
There is one dominant theme right now in the market, which is artificial intelligence and anything related to that, all the way down to companies that are building HVAC systems for data centers.
With risks like elections, the team goes through the portfolio company by company to evaluate potential changes as a result of an administration change.
In thinking through the risks as part of their ongoing risk management exercise, the portfolio appears resilient, prepared, and diversified for many different scenarios, including different election outcomes.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA, Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/navigating-the-u-s-mid-cap-landscape-resilience-amid-uncertainty-ep160

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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In this episode, Portfolio Manager Jeff Mo discusses common behavioral biases that can hinder clear sell decisions, and the tools, such as checklists and trigger points, that can help slow down emotional thinking. He provides examples of companies that he and his team properly exited based on changing fundamentals as well as those they may have held onto for a bit too long, proving the power of the endowment bias. Key points from this episode:

Mawer’s sell discipline mirrors the inverse of its buy criteria: wealth creation, management quality, and discount to intrinsic value.
The endowment bias makes it difficult to sell stocks you already own; try to always consider your holdings, and don't get married to them.
Valuation is not the most important plank of Mawer’s sell discipline framework. Wealth creation and excellent management teams come first.
While some believe the worst sell misses are the ones that have gone down considerably, Jeff believes the worst ones are actually the ones that go nowhere.
It is important to weigh the inductive evidence a little bit more than the deductive evidence, but this can be difficult to do when it's a company that has done well.
Warren Buffett once said that the preferred holding period is forever. However, not everything in life goes as you’d prefer, and that’s where sell discipline comes into play.
Checklists and trigger points are a great way to think systematically and to slow down the process, helping take the emotion out of sell decisions.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/from-buy-to-bye-sell-discipline-and-overcoming-behavioral-biases This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

Twitter - https://www.twitter.com/Mawer_Invest

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In this episode, we explore the growing electricity demands of data centers stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) with Chris Silvestre, Analyst on the U.S. Equity Team. He shares insights from a recent research trip visiting data centers in Northern Virginia—the data center capital of the world—and discusses challenges around meeting demands given constraints of land availability, energy generation and transmission, and the significantly increased power demands required to develop large language models.

Key points from this episode:

• Electricity demand in the U.S. has been relatively flat for a decade but is expected to increase 25% by 2050 due to electrification, ESG goals, and data center expansion to meet AI demand.

• For the same footprint and the same data center, you need 10 times more power for AI workloads than you did for the old-style data centers.

• Data centers cluster organically in hubs, such as Northern Virginia, to minimize data transfer costs, but this clustering strains power infrastructure.

• Meeting increased data center capacity demands faces land and energy constraints. While the U.S. has the ability to generate power, it may not have it in the right spots at the right time to support this new incremental demand.

• Businesses are proactively responding to increased demand by signing deals to secure data center capacity despite constraints, while governments are implementing policies and reforms to support AI development.

• With respect to AI or high-performance computing, there is a sense that this is a priority and will be a matter of national interest if not national security.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Chris Silvestre, CPA, CFA, Equity Analyst

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/watts-up-the-challenges-and-opportunities-of-powering-ai-ep158

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Portfolio Manager Karan Phadke discusses his views on the global markets and the performance of the global small-cap portfolio. He illustrates how businesses are adapting to and utilizing artificial intelligence (AI), highlighting the difference between the value-added reseller and IT consultant business models. Two portfolio holdings, CBIZ and Convatec, are discussed to demonstrate the team's focus on well-run, resilient companies that are trading at reasonable valuations. Key points from this episode:

The U.S. remains a strong outperformer, while Europe continues to see more sluggish growth.
Current portfolio strengths include resilient U.S. companies, particularly in the professional employer organization (PEO) space with companies that provide outsourced HR functions.
AI is impacting businesses in three main areas: hardware, software, and services. The team focuses on services, which is comprised of companies that help their clients acquire and integrate the hardware and software to use AI effectively.
Regarding generative AI, there's still a very heavy lift involved at the onset to get the data clean and ready to use.
When looking at the strategy from the top down, the team seeks out resilient businesses trading at reasonable valuations that are well-run with strong managers who are reinvesting capital intelligently.
CBIZ exemplifies the strategy's focus on well-run companies with recurring business models while Convatec represents a business with solid management and long-term growth potential.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Karan Phadke, CFA, Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/navigating-global-small-caps-in-an-ai-transformative-world-ep157

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.Follow us on social:

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In this episode, Portfolio Manager Colin Wong shares strategic insights on disruptive technologies and recent adjustments in the U.S. equity portfolio. Colin discusses how his team navigates market exuberance, consensus risks, and economic ebbs and flows with a focus on resilient returns. Through compelling examples, Colin provides actionable insights on benefitting from innovation without betting the farm on a single theme. Key points from this episode:

The three main sources of stock market return are earnings per share growth, multiple expansion, and dividends.
Similar to the Internet in the late 90s/early 2000s, artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform almost every industry and sector.
However, some companies are currently only using AI for various smaller tasks, such as answering simple customer queries, while others have fully embedded AI into their products.
The U.S. equity team invests in companies with profitable existing businesses that are also investing in the future, namely AI.
An influx of infrastructure spending in the U.S. not only provides upside to the businesses in the portfolio but also serves as a significant source of downside protection.
Intuit and Nike are examples of Mawer’s investment philosophy at work, one of which was recently exited and the other recently purchased.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Colin Wong, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/u-s-equity-capitalizing-on-innovation-and-protecting-against-pitfalls-ep156

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at www.mawer.com.

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Portfolio Manager Wen Cheong debunks the perceived challenges of investing in the emerging market space, highlighting his team’s concentrated approach and candour. He details how his focus on best-in-class management and passion for identifying attractive valuations has powered returns.

Key points from this episode:

• Small-cap companies are a pond with fewer rocks; opportunities can be found in steady, established businesses with competitive advantages.

• The slump in semiconductor demand in 2023 was primarily driven by a normalization in post-pandemic demand and macro challenges leading to an inventory de-stocking cycle.

• The EM team makes decisions for the portfolio entirely on a bottom-up basis with a slight macro overlay.

• Even in areas with geopolitical uncertainty, opportunities can be found in well-run, high-quality companies with attractive valuations.

• The emerging markets space remains full of diverse opportunities for those willing to do the deep dive.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Wen Cheong, CFA, Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/fishing-in-less-crowded-ponds-identifying-opportunities-in-emerging-markets-ep155

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Building on his conversation in Episode 153, Portfolio Manager Samir Taghiyev takes a deep dive into the mental models and frameworks that Mawer uses to evaluate company management teams, particularly within the small-cap space. Using both personal and financial examples, he illustrates the benefit of exploration and exploitation, striking a balance between focus and curiosity, and identifying opportunities on the S curve of the corporate lifecycle. Key points from this episode:

Company management can be evaluated by determining if they are growing revenues while controlling costs and risks. This can be combined with other frameworks to create a comprehensive picture.
The exploration vs. exploitation framework can be used to evaluate how well management balances focus with curiosity.
There are four phases in the S curve of the corporate lifecycle—startup, growth, maturity, and decline. Mawer focuses on companies in the middle two phases, with Trisura and TerraVest provided as examples.
Incrementalism is very important when it comes to exploration vs. exploitation because it strikes a key balance between spending to de-risk and learning.
Companies can either drive growth organically, often through the introduction of new products, or inorganically through acquisitions.
Using the “look back” and “trust but verify” processes, the small-cap team leverages their historical notes and third-party information to improve their verification of management claims.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Samir Taghiyev, CFA, Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/ This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

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Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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Portfolio Manager Samir Taghiyev discusses the current landscape of the Canadian small-cap space through the lens of the “Mr. Market” narrative and crowd-driven sentiments. Using Converge Technology Solutions as an example, Taghiyev sheds light on his team’s due diligence process and how they find opportunities by tuning out the noise. Key points from this episode:

The mood of the markets can change very quickly, highlighting the importance of due diligence
Investors should be aware of market narratives but not get caught up in them
Diligence on business, management, and valuation is key to finding opportunities created by delayed market reactions
Small caps may see more exaggerated dynamics due to retail investor involvement

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Samir Taghiyev, CFA, Portfolio Manager

For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/moody-mr-market-finding-opportunities-in-the-canadian-small-cap-space-amid-changing-market-psychology-ep153

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

--

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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As markets continue on a dynamic trend, fixed income portfolio manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the first quarter of 2024. In addition, the reemergence of a more typical correlation pattern between stocks and bonds, getting central banks off the sidelines, and the concern that markets may be being too complacent. Key points from this episode:

Global growth improving, inflation moderating, and earnings relatively strong
In Canada, growth has improved although consumption remains weak when compared to the U.S.
Moving with caution: strong data has begun to cause central banks to be cautious around timing of interest rate cuts—they want to be confident higher inflation is in the rear view mirror
Strong equity markets—a continuation of the 2023 technology-focused businesses doing particularly well, especially if they have a tie in to AI or semiconductors
Too much complacency? We may not have seen the full impact of higher interest rates, and you can see that in some areas we are seeing continued pressure (e.g., real estate, mortgage arrears, loan delinquencies)

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Crista Caughlin, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: https://www.mawer.com/the-art-of-boring/podcast/quarterly-update-q1-2024-ep152 This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: Twitter - / mawer_invest LinkedIn - / mawer-investment-management

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Portfolio Manager Manar Hassan-Agha discusses the importance of position sizing in investing and how factors like behavioural biases, market structures, and optimal betting strategies under the Kelly Criterion can impact returns at varying position weights. The conversation explores limitations in precisely calculating probabilities and edges for stock investments and how frameworks and checklists can be used dynamically to thoughtfully consider odds, edges, and optimal sizing for investment decisions. This discussion highlights the various personas or strategies that investors can adopt in dealing with both the winners and losers in their portfolios. Many of the concepts discussed in this episode are the research and works of others. Manar talks through how we think about applying their lessons dynamically and from a first-principles basis to the day-to-day management of portfolios at Mawer. Key points from this episode:

Lessen the emotional impact of a large loss on a single position with position sizing
Use the Kelly Criterion to determine the optimal size of a bet, taking unpredictability into account
Resist the instinct to embrace either nihilism or precision in investment decision-making
Tailor position-sizing approaches to your own investment style and risk tolerance

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Portfolio Manager Peter Lampert breaks down the decision to re-open the strategy to new institutional investors and the key inputs that determine the strategy’s capacity. In addition, “a tale of two acquisitions”: one head scratching, the other improving the investment thesis of the holding. Key Points From This Episode:

Breaking down the decision to re-open the strategy to new institutional investors
How the team determines the strategy’s capacity
A puzzling acquisition by KDDI and a potential value creating acquisition by Novo Nordisk
Evaluating the implications of rising interest rates on real estate investments
The balance needed to sift through the hype around AI while still being open to opportunities

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager For more details and full transcript visit: [episode link] This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: Twitter - https://www.twitter.com/mawer_invest LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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In this episode, host Rob Campbell and 11 colleagues on the research team engage in a comprehensive post-mortem analysis, sharing candid reflections on their decision-making processes over the past year. This episode underscores the significance of learning from both successes and mistakes, highlighting the value of vulnerability and introspection within the investment team at Mawer.

A Few Highlights: • Investing before comfort in competitive markets is necessary for returns • Less complexity in investment strategies often results in more alpha • Significant market changes can take longer to affect companies than expected • Large acquisitions are risky; patience in evaluation is key • Leaning harder on inductive evidence and numbers for decision-making • Understanding the importance of parent companies in investment decisions • Finding a balance in analysis depth to retain key insights without becoming lost in the details Host: Rob Campbell, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guests: Christian Deckart CFA, PhD, Mawer Deputy CIO, Portfolio Manager Mark Rutherford CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager Grayson Witcher CFA, AB, Mawer Portfolio Manager John Wilson CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager Samir Taghiyev CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager David Ragan CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager Siying Li CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst Jeff Mo CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager Curtis Elkington CFA, Mawer Credit Analyst Peter Lieu CFA, Mawer Portfolio Manager Asim Hussain CFA, Mawer Equity Analyst For more details and full transcript visit: [episode link] This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. -- Founded in 1974, Mawer is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore. Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: Twitter - https://www.twitter.com/Mawer_Invest LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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In this episode, newly appointed Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Mawer, Brian Carney, shares his insights on global credit strategies. With over 30 years of experience in the investment industry, Brian discusses his career journey, the evolution of credit markets, and his perspectives on current market dynamics. He highlights Mawer's approach to managing credit risks and opportunities, detailing the new Global Credit Opportunity Strategy at Mawer.

Key Points From This Episode:

Brian Carney's extensive background in finance and credit markets

The evolution and current state of global credit markets

Introduction of Mawer's Global Credit Opportunity Strategy

Approaches to managing risks and capitalizing on opportunities in credit

Insights on fixed income strategies and market dislocations

Mawer's unique position and strategies in the investment landscape

Links: Mawer Investment Management

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In this episode, Manar Hassan-Agha, co-manager of the Global Equity Strategy, joins host Rob Campbell to discuss applying the 'Moneyball' process in evaluating past investment decisions. They unpack the lessons learned from this approach, emphasizing long-term thinking in investment strategies. The conversation highlights critical insights from the Moneyball statistics, the importance of decision quality over short-term results, and the value of inactivity in investment management.

Key Points From This Episode:

'Moneyball' approach to evaluating investment decisions in global equity

Importance of long-term thinking in investment decisions

Understanding decision quality beyond immediate results

The role of inactivity and patience in successful investing

Insights from specific case studies, including Couche-tard and Wolters Kluwer

Reflections on past investment choices and their long-term impacts

Discussion on asset intensity in portfolio risk management

Links: Mawer Investment Management

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In this episode, Kevin Minas sits down with Crista Caughlin, Lead Portfolio Manager at Mawer, focusing on the key economic developments of Q4, including growth levels, inflation trends, and the resilience of financial markets. They speak on the nuances of the Canadian bond strategy and the impact of these economic factors on portfolio management.

Key Points From This Episode:

Volatility in Q4 with notable declines in interest rates and inflation

Marginal changes in growth, with a slight downturn in Q4

Economic resilience despite rapid interest rate increases in 2022-2023

Inflation trends: a reversal in Q4, with rates moving lower than in previous quarters

Equity markets showing solid returns, led by large-cap tech companies

Fixed income market volatility and changes in central bank policies

Anticipated re-emergence of traditional correlations between bonds and equities

Adjustments in asset allocation within Mawer's balanced portfolios

Links: Mawer Investment Management

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In this episode, Dave Ragan, co-manager for the EAFE large-cap strategy, speaks on the current state and future prospects of EAFE markets. He delves into Japan's market challenges and opportunities, examines the impact of global interest rates and economic conditions, and explores the decision-making processes in market volatility.

Key Points From This Episode:

Japan's historical challenges and current state in the EAFE portfolio
Chugai Pharmaceutical: A recent addition to the portfolio
Market dynamics in 2023: Interest rates and soft landing possibilities
Stock reactions to market volatility and decision-making process
Case studies: Nova Nordisk's success and Adyen's challenges
Risk management and diversification strategies in the EAFE portfolio

Links: Mawer Investment Management

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Portfolio Manager Peter Lampert dives into the world of emerging markets, sharing what’s changed for the portfolio since last year, insights on where we’re seeing new opportunities (e.g., Brazil), and the impact of geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe. He also explores why we’ve reduced our weight and exposure in China and what a slowdown in emerging markets might mean for investors.

Key Points from this Episode:

Main drivers behind the portfolio’s rebound in performance from 2022
New additions from Brazil: Petro Rio, GPS, XP
China’s increased risk profile and potential implications for emerging markets
Softening demand and slowing global growth

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Today on the podcast, Equity Analyst Michael Vogel discusses the importance of analyzing technological shifts beyond artificial intelligence and how these shifts can impact non-tech companies in the portfolio. Michael emphasizes the cultural approach to holding views lightly and shares examples of how the Research team navigates these changes.

Key Points From This Episode:

Tech changes, non-tech companies adapting, potential shifts
Image sensors improve, and Kodak sales rise steadily
Electric cars and gas stations coexist profitably
Positive impact of legal software and AI
Analyzing investment matrix, tech shifts, and shared research

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A recap of the quarter and our thoughts on the hard vs. soft landing debate.

Highlights:

Main drivers of the market pullback
Inflation’s persistent “stickiness” and potential implications of “higher for longer” interest rates
How are consumers faring?
Asset mix update
Looking ahead—what’s on our radar

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Main themes impacting the portfolio and the benefits of systematically tracking investment decisions.

Highlights:

Valuation considerations in a higher rate environment
How (and why) we’ve started systematically tracking and analyzing our investment decisions
Portfolio adjustments—adding AltaGas, exiting Enbridge and Agnico Eagle
Quick dive into Dollarama’s business model and some of the stock drivers

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A look at the strategy a year on and why we think valuation should be more top of mind for investors.

Highlights:

Influence of big tech stocks on the U.S. market and associated impacts to the small and mid cap space
The AI theme continues—Elastic, Concentrix, Moderna
Why is the U.S. market more expensive compared to its developed market peers?
Regional banks—what happened, the current state, and opportunities (e.g., First Citizens Bank)
Identifying potential economic themes through a bottom-up lens—Insperity, Dollar General, XPEL
Some of the recent main performance drivers for the strategy—Winmark, Copart, Verisk, FLEETCOR, Global Industrial, Donnelley Financial

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How we approach finding new ideas in the widest investment universe.

Highlights

Eagles and vultures mental model—why idea generation is better enabled by one shared investment philosophy and knowledge base
- E.g., Novo Nordisk and Publicis
What is the “Bathroom List” and its role in our investment process and ESG considerations—e.g., JDE Peet’s
Why nuance matters when incorporating scuttlebutt—e.g., Publicis
How we’re continuously refining and improving our processes
Current emerging markets exposure
A walk through our qualitative risk assessment checklist
Recommended reads from Manar

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Unpacking one of our key mental models around investing and managing risk.

Highlights:

What we mean by “non-predictive decision making”
Examining the question, “what’s your outlook and how you are positioned accordingly?” through a non-predictive decision-making lens
The important difference between vulnerabilities and triggers
Vulnerabilities we’re paying attention to

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Market drivers that stood out this quarter, where inflation is at, and an asset mix update.

Highlights:

How markets have been climbing a “wall of worry”
Recalling Cisco Systems and considering implications around the current concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500
Our thoughts on the continuing rate hikes and “soft landing” scenario
Holding cash: what’s changed?

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Top highlights from the team’s recent research trips and a few business models we’re excited about.

Highlights:

Insights from visiting Norway, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, India and some holdings—Equinor, AutoStore™, Ahold Delhaize, Adyen, Genmab, Kaspi, Weir, HDFC Bank
Why we’ve been reducing our weight in China and our current thinking around regional exposures
The unique competitive advantages of Compass Group and Chugai
Current and future implications of AI for the portfolio and different business models—NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, Samsung, RELX, Wolters Kluwer, Teleperformance

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A deep dive into key themes we’ve been focusing on, recent additions to the portfolio, and a few changes.

Highlights:

Quick recap: What has changed with the portfolio since 2022?
What we mean by “engaged owners” (and the difference they can make)
Why we are looking for companies with lower duration
How we try to find a variant perception from the market—and some examples
Recent additions to the portfolio: Dermapharm, Donnelley Financial, Hikma, Ipsos, SoftwareONE, and Technogym
Our new approach to the reverse roadshow process

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Why management teams matter, energy companies rarely meet our investment criteria, and JPMorgan and State Street differ from many regional banks.

Highlights

Potential implications of the recent advancements in generative AI
U.S. regional banking challenges and our exposure
Why we don’t currently own any energy sector companies in the portfolio
A look at two holdings—one “old” and one new—Verisk and BorgWarner
Our observations on broader earnings results

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Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.

Highlights:

Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing?
What is knowledge? How do you create it?
- The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning
- A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology
The resonance behind the learning, trying to “win by not losing”
How we aim to build knowledge by “closing the loop” on inductive learning:
- Journaling, timestamping, governance (and the Mawer Lab)
- Forecasting tournaments and “adjacent games”
- Also: Learning isn’t cost free
Drawing from the wisdom of crowds—what conditions help foster learning within an organization?
ChatGPT and AI: Potential implications for the learning process in investing

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The major themes of the quarter, where we are in the interest rate hike cycle, and our thoughts on the recent banking crisis.

Highlights:

The slow-moving impacts of central bank policy on inflation
Our banking exposure
Why it’s important for investors not to fear recessions
Asset mix update

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This episode, we discuss our seven-point management assessment framework (with examples), our risk management approach, and overall thoughts on energy.

Highlights:

Why it’s difficult to find energy companies with sustainable competitive advantages—and where we see some opportunities—e.g., Parex Resources and International Petroleum Corporation
Another way to look at geographic diversification? Revenue profiles in the portfolio (e.g., Jamieson Wellness Inc.)
Diving into our Management Assessment Framework (MAF) and how we use it to determine if a management team is effective—E.g., Uni-Select and Element Fleet
Visiting each floor of “The Mawer Risk Elevator”—and why the decision-making environment is the foundational level
How rising interest rates can impact wealth creation

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Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.

Highlights:

A review of the market and our strategy’s performance in 2022 and three key learnings
Why we exited Kakao, and some of the new additions to the portfolio: Salik, Vesta
Risks we’re monitoring—and managing: China-U.S. tensions over Taiwan and geographic exposure in the portfolio
The power of pricing power (see: TSMC) and types of ESG considerations that we look for in our investments (Petro Rio)
How a shared investment philosophy and process makes for better decision making—e.g., Lonza, Hikma

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The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.

Highlights:

How inflation can present major challenges to businesses
Why investors need to look more closely at maintenance capital expenditures and depreciation expenditures—e.g., Dollar General
A return to accounting basics and monitoring inventory balances—e.g., Johnson & Johnson

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Chief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research’s team annual post-mortem discussions.

Highlights:

The cyclical—and long-term—aspect to investment learnings
Why interest rake hikes were a big factor and topic of conversation
“Fishtailing” and the difficulties of trying to right-size information
How emotional intelligence makes for better decision making
“Simplify, clarify, focus” and offsetting the toll of complexity in processes

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Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin walks listeners through the tumultuous bond market experiences of 2022 and outlines three main economic scenarios the team is monitoring for 2023.

Highlights:

Are reports of the 60/40 portfolio’s death greatly exaggerated?
2022 recap: What happened in bond markets?
How can the yield curve un-invert?
Key takeaways from researching Canadian household debt levels
Adjustments to the portfolio: What changes have we made?

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Some of the main challenges facing the continent, what we gleaned from visiting over 45 companies, and ESG considerations that are front of mind for major European investment firms.

Highlights:

Our thoughts on the prevailing macro concerns—e.g., inflation energy crisis
“Collective corporate memory” and why the history of Europe is an important and unique context—particularly seen from a bottom-up perspective (e.g., Kuehne+Nagel, Lonza, Givaudan, SGS, Reckitt, Anglo American, Roche)
Differentiation and operational effectiveness—what makes our European holdings competitive (e.g., Anglo American, Kuehne+Nagel)
Germany’s longer-term energy outlook and potential implications for energy transition and infrastructure in Europe (e.g., Iberdrola, Shell, Equinor)
ESG conference takeaways—the importance (and difficulty) of parsing and aggregating unstructured data, particularly for social considerations, and how we incorporate this into our investment process

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A review of last quarter, the major themes and takeaways from 2022, and what’s on the horizon for the new year.

Highlights:

How we did—and what factors impacted relative performance
Why 2022 was difficult for Balanced investors
Discount rates have gone up…where are valuations at?
Inflation expectations, interest rates, labour markets, earnings, and economic growth—what’s being monitored in 2023
Asset mix update

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What investors can learn from the s-curves of technologies both old and new.

Highlights

How S-curves relate to TAM (total addressable market)—and what piqued our interest about them in the first place
Types of S-curves
Where different technologies fall into an S-curve: E.g., cars, refrigerators, landlines, TVs, Kindles, USB ports, and biologic drugs
Are S-curves getting steeper?

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What we think about the newly proposed tax on share buybacks in Canada, a balanced take on the energy theme, and where we’ve trimmed, exited, and added in the portfolio.

Highlights:

Which sectors may be most affected by the buyback tax
Holdings that showed strong fundamentals throughout this year’s volatility—e.g., Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, Loblaws, Dollarama, and more
Canadian real estate recap—e.g., Choice Properties and Granite REIT
How we approach assessing big C-suite changes (CN Rail, Suncor, Bank of Nova Scotia)
Major themes the team is thinking about for 2023

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How do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?)

Highlights

Why doing a qualitative assessment of each company is our first filter
How we try to determine valuations without missing the actual fundamentals (e.g., Trisura and Kinsale) and why valuation is only one input in the investment decision-making process
When DCF modelling can actually help us better understand the drivers of the business—e.g., Colliers—and also some of its pitfalls
Choosing the right discount rate—why it’s more art than science and how we try to ensure consistency across the platform

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A deep dive—right to the atomic level—of how semiconductors work and the potential implications for the industry when Moore’s Law comes to an end.

Highlights

The transistor—a brief history
What is a semiconductor? Why are they special? (Hint: atomic-level, laser precision manufacturing)
HSMC, ASML, Amazon, KLA, Samsung—what the end of Moore’s Law might mean for various businesses in the semiconductor value chain
Potential impacts to global productivity
Will Rob continue to be underwhelmed by iPhone upgrades?

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The deglobalization shift, long-term opportunities we’re seeing in utilities, and what’s interesting about gravel.

Highlights:

Impacts of currency swings and a strong U.S. dollar at the portfolio and company level
Why we’re shifting to more domestic companies: E.g., Texas Instruments, Martin Marietta, Paychex
The long-term runway potential for utilities—and renewables: E.g., Southern Company, AEP, Amphenol, and Linde

How we’re adding resiliency to prepare for any scenario: E.g., AmerisourceBergen, Hershey, Intuit, Verisk

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The “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.

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Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.

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Market swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.

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What makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.

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Why small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.

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The impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.

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The team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.

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Inflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.

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CIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.

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Lead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.

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Opportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.

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What DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.

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On building a “global investment franchise” and balancing the trade-offs between creativity, efficiency, and process to build a consistent environment for better investment decisions.

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Russia, the potential parallels to Taiwan and China, and macro to micro portfolio considerations in an inflationary environment.

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CIO Paul Moroz shares his take on what’s happening in the markets, some of the underlying factors behind recent performance, and a reminder that the wheels of capitalism will continue to turn.

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Portfolio Managers Grayson Witcher and Colin Wong share market observations, industries where fundamentals are shifting, and a few recent additions to the portfolio.

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Jim Hall (chair, head of our risk management process, and portfolio manager) shares his overall observations on prevailing macroeconomic risks—and the effects on our process and the EAFE large cap portfolio.

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How we achieve balance in the portfolio, manage hubris, and have accounted for inflation risk in our investment process.

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Chief Investment Officer, Paul Moroz, reflects on notable learnings from 2021 and how time and experience still clarify the most in investing—and life.

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Our systematic assessment framework to narrow the probabilities in analysing fast-growing technology companies in an effort to improve our odds of identifying those elusive “holy compounders.”

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The major themes of Q4 and a look ahead to 2022.

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Inflation cycles throughout history, Keynes vs. monetarists, and why the enemy is…still us.

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Global debt, China’s credit cycle, shifting monetary and fiscal policy objectives, and the three scenarios we are thinking about this year

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Impacts of higher inflation and interest rates and the benefits of an integrated research team.

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Inflation risk, slowing global growth, and the un-globalization trend—a review of Q3.

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Why we launched—our interest and history in U.S. mid cap stocks—potential benefits of the asset class, and a few holding examples.

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John Kay’s “simplicity, modularity, redundancy” risk framework elements and our ongoing risk management process improvements.

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Mispricing patterns we’re seeing in the market; where we’re finding an edge; improving our management team assessment techniques.

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A real time risk management discussion addressing the increasing regulatory pressures currently impacting a wide range of businesses in China.

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The tremendous IPO activity led by tech companies; our evaluation process for a company prior to it becoming public; and recent matrix meeting outcomes for the portfolio.

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Philip Fisher’s continuous relevance; determining fair value ranges for blitzscalers; and potentially overlooked opportunities in Russia and Kazakhstan.

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A review of the quarter: the high-level themes have continued.

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CIO Paul Moroz walks us through his “best practices” portfolio construction checklist.

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Opening the Pandora’s box of Bitcoin, societal trust, and why investors might not, but need to, fully understand the technology.

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“Making the macro micro” around demand trends, inflation concerns, valuations, and earnings. We discuss Comcast, Visa, Dollar General, Alphabet, and more.

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A close look at our research methods to understand trends, opportunities, and challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

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How thinking like a deer in the forest (situational awareness) and other risk management process tinkering has helped the team. In addition, thoughts on the potential CP Rail and Kansas City Southern deal and Telus International IPO.

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One year since lockdown: CIO Paul Moroz summarizes the major market themes of the past four quarters and how it has (and hasn’t) affected our process and way of looking at the world.

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How the EAFE LC team is improving the overall process and a deeper look at holdings DSV, Kuehne+Nagel, and Anglo American.

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Deputy CIO Christian Deckart discusses market performance in a “story of three quarters” and some new holdings we added to the portfolio—Admiral Group and Novo Nordisk.

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CIO Paul Moroz discusses some of the Research team’s 2020 learnings—highlights include the challenge of using the market as a feedback system and the “Ben Stiller Theory.”

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Lead portfolio manager, David Ragan, discusses how the portfolio did over the past year, why some companies were more resilient than others, and what makes skepticism a competitive advantage.

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A look back on the major investment themes of 2020, and a look ahead at some of the risks and opportunities on our radar.

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Our three hosts narrate Mawer's timely variation of "'Twas the week before Christmas"—an annual review of the year. Stay for the bloopers!

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Front-of-mind investment learnings from equity analysts Justin Anderson and Joshua Samuel on the dynamic, evolving gaming universe.

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Mawer U.S. Equity Portfolio Manager, Grayson Witcher, takes us through how the team approaches portfolio construction; assessing themes, offsets, and opportunities through holdings Nike, Carrier, UnitedHealth, Fastenal, and more.

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A deep dive into three new holdings: Stella-Jones, Ritchie Bros., and Granite REIT, and what we mean when we say “winning by not losing.”

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A review of the quarter: the ongoing impacts of COVID-19 on economic activity, continuing fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the run-up to the U.S. election.

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Crista Caughlin, lead portfolio manager of Mawer’s fixed income strategies, discusses potential impacts of increasing global debt in a low interest rate environment and the three economic scenarios top of mind for the bond team.

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CIO Paul Moroz discusses resilience, global monetary policy, and current themes such as TikTok and a potential “technological iron curtain.”

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Building resiliency while finding opportunities in emerging markets.

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A deep dive into the themes, fundamentals, and opportunity sets in the payments industry.

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The impacts, risks, and potential opportunities from the COVID-19 crisis fallout on the Canadian small cap universe, and why valuations are ultimately a “blunt tool.”

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A review of the quarter: a significant rebound in markets, the potential impacts of continuous monetary and fiscal stimulus, and deglobalization.

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Why the current market environment “feels like 2030 is happening in 2020,” our perspective on the recent market recovery, and more.

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The implications of cloud migration for enterprises, investors, and business models.

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Why the strategy was created, how it was launched, and some holding examples.

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Deputy CIO Christian Deckart discusses natural contradictions in the portfolio and how the team plays “intellectual best ball.”

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Exploring the why behind the FAANG’s outsized stock returns and the overall challenges of valuating tech companies.

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CIO Paul Moroz weighs in on recent movements in the market and how we may have “crossed the Rubicon” with respect to direct fiscal stimulus and are perhaps seeing the “collapse of the bond standard.”

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Lead portfolio manager, Grayson Witcher, discusses how the team is positioning the portfolio amidst the current uncertainty.

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A review of the quarter: how we’re positioning our portfolios and what investors should keep in mind during these volatile times.

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CIO, Paul Moroz, answers clients’ most frequently asked questions during these extraordinary times.

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What we’re doing to mitigate potential sharp edges in the portfolio, as well as position for medium and long-term risks and opportunities.

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Fractals, raining money, and making decisions under uncertainty. CIO Paul Moroz continues the discussion of the current economic environment.

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CIO Paul Moroz discusses our strategy and thoughts during this time of significant market volatility.

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Why our team locks themselves in a room for a week to speak with over 30 management teams: to drive focus and attention on the companies that are going to have the best chance of meeting our investment criteria.

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Lead portfolio manager, David Ragan, on how the team strategizes in the wake of a market shake-up (e.g., coronavirus). Also included: updates on HFDC, Seven & i, and Aon.

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CIO Paul Moroz discusses how we’ve approach building resilient global portfolios over the years, the new “Cold War” between China and the U.S. and its wider reaching impact, and how “the real money’s in the holding.”

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This episode, our CIO Paul Moroz considers the potential themes and catalysts that are driving negative interest rates, what that may mean for investors, and whether those signal a new, longer term paradigm shift.

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Featuring insights from the fourth quarter from Balanced and Global Balanced Fund co-manager and Asset Mix Chair, Greg Peterson.

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Director of Research and Canadian equity lead manager, Vijay Viswanathan, discusses risks and opportunities in Canada, the cannabis industry’s value chain, and potential transformations to the food retailer business model.

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This episode, we interview our Head of Information Security and Infrastructure, Dwight Pratt, and Equity Analyst, Karan Phadke, on the ramifications of technical debt to businesses and investors.

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Lead portfolio manager, Peter Lampert, discusses the current environment for emerging markets and what opportunities and challenges we’re seeing for the portfolio.

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Vice President of the Community Foundations of Canada, JP Bervoets, explains the UN’s sustainable development goals—and how individuals and corporations can get on board to make a difference.

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Featuring insights from the third quarter from Balanced and Global Balanced Fund co-manager and Asset Mix Chair, Greg Peterson.

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Equity analyst, John Wilson, shares how the team approaches separating signal from noise, why defensive business models make for a resilient portfolio, and the advantages of a “cookie-cutter” growth runway in a slowing market environment.

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U.S. equity co-manager, Colin Wong, discusses the big picture backdrop (interest rates, U.S.-China trade war) and then dives deep into the investment thesis behind Microsoft, A.O. Smith, and AptarGroup. Bonus: how the team’s “bathroom list” review inspired an initiation in Hershey.

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Calgary Foundation Board and Impact Investing Committee Chair, Bob Gibson, and Director, Investments, Lauren Frosst, discuss the Foundation’s definition of impact investing, why the foundation became involved, and how they got started.

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Lead portfolio manager, David Ragan, discusses some big picture risks (Brexit and U.S.-China trade wars) and then dives deep into the investment thesis behind LVMH and Bunzl.

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Investing legend Martin Ferguson, pioneer of the award-winning Mawer Canadian small-cap strategy shares the lessons he learned over his 33-year career.

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Equity trader, Jeff Wilson, delves into the in-house “B-E-E-P” framework the trading team has built: Best Execution, Education, and Process. “To achieve the most consistent amount of positive outcomes, you can't actually impact the outcome, but you can impact the process that develops outcomes.”

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Featuring insights from the second quarter from Balanced and Global Balanced Fund co-manager and Asset Mix Chair, Greg Peterson.

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Deputy CIO, Christian Deckart, discusses everything from big picture risks to company specifics on this global equity portfolio episode.

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CIO, Paul Moroz, answers clients’ questions about the current economic environment and how Mawer is positioning its portfolios.

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Equity analyst and previous biomedical researcher, Amit Shah, discusses the healthcare industry in the U.S.

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Lead manager Jeff Mo discusses the psychology that drove the Canadian economy over the past 6 months, the correlation between Canadian and emerging markets equities, and what a holding “meeting our expectations” means at Mawer.

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Featuring insights from the first quarter from Balanced and Global Balanced Fund co-manager and Asset Mix Chair, Greg Peterson.

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Director of Research and Canadian equity lead manager Vijay Viswanathan discusses the overall Canadian economy, cozy oligopolies, and the amount of foreign exposure in the portfolio.

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Equity analyst John Wilson discusses how decentralized organizations can maintain agility and operational excellence as a defense to the negative aspects of change.

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Lead portfolio manager, Peter Lampert, discusses the investment thesis behind two Emerging Markets banks, the risk of shadow banking in China, Shanghai International Airport and Samsung Electronics.

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On this episode, institutional portfolio manager, Rob Campbell, explores a few different types of business models in the travel industry and their respective risks and competitive advantages.

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Equity analyst, Justin Anderson, walks us through the definition of intrinsic value, how we model it, and some of the ways it might be influenced by technology now and in the future.

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Equity traders Merv Mendes and Peter Dmytruk discuss the evolution of the trading desk at Mawer, the difference between quantitative and qualitative data, and the value of relationship building.

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Featuring insights from the fourth quarter from Balanced and Global Balanced Fund co-manager and Asset Mix Chair, Greg Peterson.

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CIO, Paul Moroz, walks listeners through the reasons why going global is optimal in today’s environment. He discusses the paradigm shift from a closed world to globalization, how home bias is often a pure investing error, and how assessing stocks on a “brick by brick” basis may be better than pulling on a country “lever” in balanced portfolios.

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U.S. portfolio manager, Grayson Witcher, discusses the sustainability of U.S. earnings, some of the major position changes over the past two years, and overall team learnings.

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In light of our president Michael Mezei’s upcoming retirement, he sits down to reflect on the many lessons in leadership he’s gained over the course of his career.

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Institutional Portfolio Manager, Andrew Johnson, discusses key investment issues foundations and not-for-profits are facing in today's environment.

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Deputy CIO, Christian Deckart, discusses global small-cap portfolio holdings to demonstrate the small-cap life cycle, how M&As present a double-edged sword, and how the team continues to turn over new stones.

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Global small cap equity analyst, Karan Phadke, discusses his experience interviewing management teams. He reveals why assessing a management team’s strength is so important to our investment philosophy, the characteristics we look for, and explains the difference between an “architect” and an “administrator.”

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David Ragan, co-manager of Mawer’s international equity strategies, discusses the current economic environment, what changes have been made to the portfolio as a result, and highlights holdings in the exciting worlds of nanotechnology, door locks, and pharmacies.

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Featuring third quarter insights from Greg Peterson, portfolio manager of Mawer’s balanced and global balanced strategies. Greg provides perspective on emerging markets, the implications of rising interest rates, and USMCA (NAFTA 2.0).

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CIO and co-manager, Paul Moroz, discusses how to build the most resilient global portfolio possible and reveals Mawer’s four building blocks to risk management.

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Institutional portfolio manager, Rob Campbell, explains the concept of suitcase words: words into which people attribute—or pack—multiple meanings. He discusses how honing our language skills can contribute to better investing outcomes.

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Lead portfolio manager, Peter Lampert, discusses the current investing environment for emerging markets, the importance of resilience, and reviews portfolio holdings in beer, security systems, and bakery ingredient distribution.

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Co-manager of Mawer’s U.S. equity portfolio, Grayson Witcher, discusses the impact of rising corporate debt levels, the importance of relationship building with management teams, and how fighting bias is key to Mawer’s investment process.

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Director of Research and Canadian equity co-manager, Vijay Viswanathan, discusses potential trade war impacts to the portfolio, Canada’s opportunity set, and dives deeper into holdings in the energy, e-commerce and insurance industries.

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CIO Paul Moroz continues to travel the world doing fundamental research for the global equity and the global small cap strategies. This episode reveals specific observations from his recent research trip to South America and New York City.

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This episode features insights from the past quarter by Greg Peterson, Portfolio Manager of Mawer’s balanced and global balanced strategies. Greg provides perspective on global trade wars, rising corporate debt levels, and the influence of central banks on markets.

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John Wilson, analyst on Mawer’s global small cap strategy, discusses scuttlebutt’s valued place in Mawer’s investment process and its competitive advantage for long-term investors. Learn how just two phone calls can take you from Bogota to Oslo.

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David Ragan, portfolio manager of Mawer’s international equity strategies, discusses his—perhaps surprising—views on investing in Japan. While Dave holds some less than optimistic opinions, rest assured there are some positives: two of the portfolio’s Top 10 holdings are, in fact, Japanese. Find out why.

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Jeff Mo, portfolio manager of Mawer’s Canadian small cap strategies, discusses the significant importance of executive compensation to long-term investment performance.

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Deputy CIO, Christian Deckart, takes listeners on a journey through Mawer’s equity investment philosophy by walking through the investment thesis of four of the firm’s global small cap strategy’s top 10 holdings: Softcat PLC, Tsuruha Holdings, XP Power Ltd., VZ Holdings.

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Vijay Viswanathan, Mawer’s Director of Research, on the key characteristics of high performing investment teams. The discussion includes why cultivating culture can be a great competitive advantage, some performance building frameworks, and what it means to be a “steward of the jersey.”

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James Redpath (JR), Mawer fixed Income portfolio manager, answers why the Alberta government issued a benchmark euro-denominated bond—four to five times the average deal size in Canada—and what it may mean for the Canadian debt market.

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This episode features insights from the past quarter (1Q18) by Greg Peterson, Portfolio Manager of Mawer’s Balanced and Global Balanced strategies. Highlights include: the currency translation effect on Canadian equities, finding a margin of safety for investors, how the credit market is currently functioning and the main influencers that may cause market volatility going forward.

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Features the investment insights of Justin Anderson, Canadian equity analyst and leader of Mawer’s zone of experimentation known as The Lab. The Lab focuses on two main areas: 1) Applying new technologies to garner an investment edge; 2) Automating and streamlining the investment process.

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Features the investment insights of Peter Lampert, Mawer Emerging Markets and International Equity portfolio manager, from his research trip to China. A few highlights include: exploration of the progression of manufacturing and the internet sectors, self-driving cars, the leapfrog impact of mobile technology, and scale benefits of China’s economic engine!

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Features the investment insights of Mawer’s Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Paul Moroz, from his research trip to India. Paul is also co-manager of Mawer’s Global Equity and Global Small Cap strategies. In our discussion, Paul talks about the importance India’s change in administration has made to the investing landscape; explains India’s growing need for capital; shares the management meetings that left him deterred and excited; and, shines a light on why wearing shoes during company meetings might be a good idea!

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