Manifold: Recent Episodes
Steve Hsu
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Join him for wide-ranging conversations with leading writers, scientists, technologists, academics, entrepreneurs, investors, and more.
Aella is a sex worker, sex researcher, and data scientist.
Aella on X: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl
Interviews with ex-prostitutes on the pimp life (Las Vegas)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAlXdyjmWUo&t=4383s&ab_channel=PeterSantenello
An earlier Aella interview with Reason:
https://reason.com/podcast/2022/04/27/aella-libertarian-sex-worker-turned-data-scientist/
Steve and Aella discuss:
- (00:00) - Introduction
- (01:22) - Aella's background and upbringing
- (12:45) - Aella's experiences as a sex worker and escorting
- (29:52) - Pimp culture
- (38:01) - Seeking Arrangement
- (43:50) - Cheating
- (46:50) - OnlyFans, farming simps
- (51:49) - Incels and sex work
- (56:24) - Porn and Gen-Z
- (01:12:43) - Embryo screening
- (01:21:43) - How far off is IVG?
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Tim Dettmers develops computationally efficient methods for deep learning. He is a leader in quantization: coarse graining of large neural networks to increase speed and reduce hardware requirements.
Tim developed 4-and 8-bit quantizations enabling training and inference with large language models on affordable GPUs and CPUs - i.e., as commonly found in home gaming rigs.
Tim and Steve discuss: Tim's background and current research program, large language models, quantization and performance, democratization of AI technology, the open source Cambrian explosion in AI, and the future of AI.
Tim's site: https://timdettmers.com/
Tim on GitHub: https://github.com/TimDettmers
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Paul Huang is a journalist and research fellow with the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation. He is currently based in Taipei, Taiwan.
Sample articles:
Taiwan’s Military Has Flashy American Weapons but No Ammo (in Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/
Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell (Foreign Policy): https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/
Steve and Paul discuss:
0:00 Introduction
1:44 Paul’s background; the Green Party (DPP) and Blue Party (KMT) in Taiwan
4:40 How the Taiwanese people view themselves vs mainland Chinese
15:02 Taiwan taboos: politics and military preparedness
15:27 Effect of Ukraine conflict on Taiwanese opinion
29:56 Lack of realistic military planning
37:20 Is there a political solution to reunification with China? What influence does the U.S. have?
51:34 The likelihood of peaceful reunification of Taiwan and China
56:45 Honest views on Taiwanese and U.S. military readiness for a
conflict with China
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Steve Hsu, Richard Hanania, and Rob Henderson were scheduled for a June 2023 panel as part of the University of Austin (UATX) Forbidden Courses series. Steve missed the panel due to travel issues, but the three have gathered on this podcast to recreate the fun!
They discuss:
0:00 Introduction
1:20 The University of Austin and forbidden courses
17:37 Will woke campus culture change anytime soon?
29:57 Common people vs elites on affirmative action
35:42 Why it’s uncomfortable to disagree about affirmative action
41:22 Fraud and misrepresentation in higher ed
44:20 The adversity carveout in the Supreme Court affirmative action ruling
50:10 Standardized testing and elite university admissions
1:06:18 Divergent views among racial and ethnic groups on affirmative action; radicalized Asian American males
1:10:00 Differences between East and South Asians in the West
1:23:03 Class-based preferences and standardized tests
1:31:57 Rob Henderson’s next move
LINKS
Richard Hanania’s new book: The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-origins-of-woke-richard-hanania?variant=41004650528802
Richard Hanania’s newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/
The Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology: https://www.cspicenter.com/
Rob Henderson’s newsletter: https://www.robkhenderson.com/
Rob Henderson’s new book: Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Troubled/Rob-Henderson/9781982168537
UATX: https://www.uaustin.org/forbidden-courses
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.
Steve and Richard discuss the recent Supreme Court ruling in Students For Fair Admissions vs Harvard and UNC.
Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.
0:00 Introduction
1:09 Richard Sander’s initial reaction to the Supreme Court ruling
4:03 How data influenced the court’s decision
7:58 Overview of the court’s ruling
11:27 Carve outs in the court’s ruling
16:59 The litigation landscape
21:25 Workarounds to race-blind admissions and the UC system
32:22 Remedies: What will happen with Harvard and UNC now?
38:02 The landscape of college admissions
44:47 Effects of the Supreme Court ruling beyond higher education
LINKS
SCOTUS decision on Affirmative Action:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/supreme-court-decision-on-race-based-admissions/0a725aaabb459074/full.pdf
Richard Sander on SCOTUS Oral Arguments: Affirmative Action and Discrimination against Asian Americans at Harvard and UNC: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-on-scotus-oral-arguments-affirmative-action-and-discrimination-against-asian-americans-at-harvard-and-unc
Richard Sander: Affirmative Action, Mismatch Theory, and Academic Freedom: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/richard-sander-affirmative-action-mismatch-theory-academic-freedom-6
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
In this episode, Steve talks to three AI engineers from his startup SuperFocus.AI.
0:00 Introduction
1:06 The Google memo and open-source AI
14:41 Sparsification and the size of models: AI on your phone?
30:16 When will AI take over ordinary decision-making from humans?
34:50 Rapid advances in AI: a view from inside
41:28 AI Doomers and Alignment
Links to earlier episodes on AI and LLMs.
Artificial Intelligence & Large Language Models: Oxford Lecture — #35: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/artificial-intelligence-large-language-models-oxford-lecture-35
Bing vs. Bard, US-China STEM Competition, and Embryo Screening — #30: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/bing-vs-bard-us-china-stem-competition-and-embryo-screening-30
ChatGPT, LLMs, and AI — #29: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/chatgpt-llms-and-ai
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Abdel Abdellaoui is Assistant Professor of Genetics in the Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam.
Abdel Abdellaoui is a geneticist who has been involved in a wide range of studies on psychiatric genetics, behavioral genetics, and population genetics. He is particularly interested in how collective behaviors, such as migration and mate choice, influence the genetic makeup of populations and the relationship between genetic risk factors and environmental exposures.
Steve and Abdel discuss:
00:00 Abdel’s background: education, family history, research career
10:23 Abdel’s research focus: polygenic traits, geographical stratification
21:43 Correlations across geographical regions
33:21 Educational Attainment
38:51 Comparisons across data sets
44:48 Longevity
52:04 Reaction to NIH restricting access to data on educational attainment
Resources:
Abdel Abdellaoui’s Google Scholar citations: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hsyseKEAAAAJ&hl=en
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.
Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe the negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.
Rick and Steve discuss recent oral arguments at the Supreme Court in Students for Fair Admissions vs Harvard College and Students For Fair Admissions vs the University of North Carolina.
0:00 Rick’s experience at the Supreme Court
4:11 Rick’s impression of the oral arguments
16:24 Analyzing the court’s questions
29:09 The negative impact on Asian American students
34:41 Shifting sentiment on affirmative action
40:04 Three potential outcomes for Harvard and UNC cases
44:00 Possible reasons for conservatives to be optimistic
50:31 Final thoughts on experiencing oral arguments in person
52:12 Mismatch theory
56:31 The future of higher education
Resources
Background on the Harvard case:
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html
Transcripts:
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/20-1199_6537.pdf
https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2022/21-707_m64n.pdf
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Peter Byrne is an investigative reporter and science writer based in Northern California. His popular biography, The Many Worlds of Hugh Everett III - Multiple Universes, Mutual Assured Destruction, and the Meltdown of a Nuclear Family (Oxford University Press, 2010) was followed by publication of The Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, Collected Works 1957-1980, (Princeton University Press, 2012), co-edited with philosopher of science, Jeffrey A. Barrett, of UC Irvine.
Everett's formulation of quantum mechanics, which implies the existence of a quantum multiverse, is favored by a significant (and growing) fraction of working physicists.
Steve and Peter discuss:
0:00 How Peter Byrne came to write a biography of Hugh Everett
18:09 Everett’s personal life and groundbreaking thesis as a catalyst for the book
24:00 Everett and Decoherence
31:25 Reaction of other physicists to Everett’s many worlds theory
40:46 Steve’s take on Everett’s many worlds theory
43:41 Peter on the bifurcation of science and philosophy
49:21 Everett’s post-academic life
52:58 How Hugh Everett is remembered now
References:
- Many Worlds posts on Infoproc
- Conversations with Dieter Zeh
- Macroscopic Superpositions in Isolated Systems
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is a world-renowned economics professor, bestselling author, innovative educator, and global leader in sustainable development. Professor Sachs serves as the Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and is a University Professor, Columbia's highest academic rank.
Steve and Jeffrey discuss:
0:00 Jeffrey Sachs’ experience on the Lancet Commission for COVID-19
13:41 Potential for bioweapons research
19:06 Why a lab leak is plausible
32:38 Possible defenses for COVID coverup
43:56 Government secrecy and other areas of concern
48:08 Reflections on Nord Stream sabotage
Resources:
The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19
pandemic, Sachs et al., Sept. 14 2022: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01585-9/fulltext
Why the Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 Commission Thinks The US
Government Is Preventing a Real Investigation Into the Pandemic,
Current Affairs, Aug 3 2022: https://www.jeffsachs.org/interviewsandmedia/64rtmykxdl56ehbjwy37m5hfahwnm5
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Rob Henderson grew up in foster homes in California, joined the Air Force at 17, attended Yale on the G.I. Bill, and is currently a Gates Fellow at Cambridge University (UK). He is an acute observer of American society and has coined the term Luxury Beliefs to describe ideas and opinions that confer status on the rich at very little cost, while taking a toll on the lower class.
Steve and Rob discuss:
00:00 Early life and foster experience
20:21 Rob’s experience in the Air Force
31:26 Transitioning from the Air Force to Yale and then Cambridge
44:04 Dating and socializing as an older student
50:06 Reflections on the Yale Halloween email controversy
1:01:10 Personal incentives and careerists in higher education
1:09:45 Luxury beliefs and how they show up in elite institutions
1:31:08 Age and moral judgments
1:42:50 Rob on resisting legacy academia and his future
Links:
Rob's substack
https://robkhenderson.substack.com/
Luxury Beliefs are the Latest Status Symbol for Rich Americans
https://nypost.com/2019/08/17/luxury-beliefs-are-the-latest-status-symbol-for-rich-americans/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Professor Lyle Goldstein recently retired after 20 years of service on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College (NWC). During his career at NWC, he founded the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) and has been awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for this achievement. He has written or edited seven books on Chinese strategy and is at work on a book-length project that examines the nature of China-Russia relations in the 21st century. He has a longstanding interest in great power politics, military competition, and security in the pacific region.
Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at the Washington think-tank Defense Priorities, which advocates for realism and restraint in U.S.defense policy, and also a visiting professor at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. He earned a PhD at Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and an AB from Harvard. He is fluent in both Chinese and Russian.
Steve and Lyle discuss:
00:00 Early life and background
18:03 Goldstein’s dissertation on China’s nuclear strategy
37:35 Pushback on “Meeting China Halfway”
41:24 Could the U.S. have prevented war in Ukraine?
46:05 How territorial conflicts are influencing China’s relationship with Russia
1:00:16 Analyzing war games with U.S., China, and Taiwan
Links:
Watson Institute, Brown University
https://watson.brown.edu/china/people/lyle-goldstein
Meeting China Halfway (2015)
https://www.amazon.com/Meeting-China-Halfway-Emerging-US-China/dp/162616634X
Here's Why War With China Could Elevate to Nuclear Strikes
The National Interest, January 29 2022
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/heres-why-war-china-could-elevate-nuclear-strikes-200099
Goldstein's articles at The National Interest
https://nationalinterest.org/profile/lyle-j-goldstein
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
The guest for this episode is a recent graduate of Harvard College, now pursuing a STEM PhD at another elite university. We have withheld his identity so that he can speak candidly.
Steve and his guest discuss:
0:00 Anonymous student’s academic background and admission to Harvard
21:37 Intellectual curiosity at Harvard
29:36 Academic rigor at Harvard and the difference between classes in STEM and the humanities
46:47 Access to tenured professors at Harvard
50:08 The benefits of the Harvard connection and wider pool of opportunities
58:46 Competing with off-scale students
1:00:48 Ideological climate on campus, wokeism, and controversial public speakers
1:23:11 Dating at Harvard
1:26:52 Z-scores and other metrics to add to the admissions process
Harvard Admissions and Meritocracy:
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/11/defining-merit.html
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/09/what-is-best-for-harvard.html
Harvard Affirmative Action Lawsuit:
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/supreme-court-to-take-up-harvard-unc.html
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2019/09/former-yale-law-dean-on-harvard-anti.html
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/06/harvard-office-of-institutional_21.html
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Amy Chua is the John M. Duff Jr. Professor of Law at Yale Law School. She is the author of five books and is perhaps best known for her parenting memoir Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother. She has been named one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people, one of The Atlantic's Brave Thinkers, and one of Foreign Policy's Global Thinkers.
Steve and Amy discuss:
00:00 Amy Chua's heritage and background
8:23 Growing up as an outsider
12:49 Chua's first book: market dominant minorities
20:59 The inspiration for "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother"
27:31 How Amy Chua's daughters will raise their kids
32:24 Freedom of expression at Yale and other elite universities
39:50 Kavanaugh SCOTUS nomination and Chua's op-ed in WSJ
42:13 Chua's political leanings and hope for the country
46:53 Are there ideological tests at elite universities?
Web site:
https://www.amychua.com/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Lowery is a professor of finance at the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, Austin. In this conversation, he describes the ideological climate of his university and the consequent negative effects on undergraduate education and freedom of expression on campus.
Links:
Richard Lowery at UT Austin:
https://www.mccombs.utexas.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-directory/james-lowery/
National Review coverage:
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-brave-prof-fights-the-woke-faculty-at-university-of-texas/
Academic Freedom in Crisis:
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/academic-freedom-in-crisis-punishment.html
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Tim Palmer is Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics, and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute.
He is interested in the predictability and dynamics of weather and climate, including extreme events.
He was involved in the first five IPCC assessment reports and was co-chair of the international scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme project (CLIVAR) on climate variability and predictability.
After completing his DPhil at Oxford in theoretical physics, Tim worked at the UK Meteorological Office and later the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For a large part of his career, Tim has developed ensemble methods for predicting uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts.
In 2020 Tim was elected to the US National Academy of Sciences.
Steve, Corey Washington, and Tim first discuss his career path from physics to climate research and then explore the science of climate modeling and the main uncertainties in state-of-the-art models.
In this episode, we discuss:
00:00 Introduction
1:48 Tim Palmer's background and transition from general relativity to climate modeling
15:13 Climate modeling uncertainty
46:41 Navier-Stokes equations in climate modeling
53:37 Where climate change is an existential risk
1:01:26 Investment in climate research
Links:
Tim Palmer (Oxford University)
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/find-an-expert/professor-tim-palmer
The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change (2019)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.1906691116
ExtremeEarth
https://extremeearth.eu/
Physicist Steve Koonin on climate change
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/04/how-physicist-became-climate-truth.html
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Kishore Mahbubani is Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.
Kishore enjoyed two distinct careers: in diplomacy (1971 to 2004) and in academia (2004 to 2019). He is a prolific writer and speaker on geopolitics and East-West relations.
He was twice Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002.
Mr. Mahbubani joined academia in 2004, when he was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKY School), NUS. He was Dean from 2004 to 2017.
In this episode Steve and Kishore discuss:
0:00 Introduction
2:52 Upbringing in Singapore and Asia's rise
11:35 How western thinking influences China-U.S. relations
23:05 Is China a threat to U.S. hegemony in Asia?
25:52 The United States' long-term strategy for China
32:13 How trade with ASEAN influences U.S.-China relations
40:58 Can ASEAN countries play a diplomatic role between U.S. and China
43:05 Xi Jinping's leadership and the zero-sum view of China
Links:
Can Asians Think? - https://mahbubani.net/can-asians-think/
The Asian 21st Century - https://mahbubani.net/the-asian-21st-century/
Has China Won? - https://mahbubani.net/has-china-won/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Gregory Clark is Distinguished Professor of Economics at UC-Davis. He is an editor of the European Review of Economic History, chair of the steering committee of the All-UC Group in Economic History, and a Research Associate of the Center for Poverty Research at Davis. He was educated at Cambridge University and received a PhD from Harvard University.
His areas of research are long-term economic growth, the wealth of nations, economic history, and social mobility.
Steve and Greg discuss:
0:00 Introduction
2:31 Background in economics and genetics
10:25 The role of genetics in determining social outcomes
16:27 Measuring social status through marriage and occupation
36:15 Assortative mating and the industrial revolution
49:38 Criticisms of empirical data, engagement on genetics and economic history
1:12:12 Heckman and Landerso study of social mobility in US vs Denmark
1:24:32 Predicting cognitive traits
1:33:26 Assortative mating and increase in population variance
Links:
For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 shows Genetics Determines most Social Outcomes
http://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/ClarkGlasgow2021.pdf
Further discussion
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/03/genetic-correlation-of-social-outcomes.html
A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Farewell_to_Alms
The Son Also Rises
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Son_Also_Rises_(book)
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
This interview with John Mearsheimer was conducted in 2020 on the original Manifold podcast with Corey Washington and Steve Hsu. Parts of the conversation are prescient with respect to US-China relations and the situation in Ukraine.
John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. He has been described as the most influential realist of his generation.
Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.
Steve, Corey, and John discuss:
0:00 A quick message for listeners
1:21 Introduction
2:39 Realist foreign policy worldview
15:46 Proxy conflicts and the U.S.
21:31 U.S. history: a moral hegemon, or just a hegemon? Zinn and Chomsky
29:50 U.S.-China relationship, competing hegemonies?
36:44 Will Europe become more united?
41:23 China’s ambitions
46:12 Europe’s fragmentation and population trends
47:57 What drove U.S. interventions after the Cold War?
51:36 Coalitions and U.S.-China competition
Resources:
John Mearsheimer - https://www.mearsheimer.com/
The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities - https://www.amazon.com/Great-Delusion-Liberal-International-Realities-ebook/dp/B07H3XRPQS
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Theodore A. Postol is professor emeritus of Science, Technology, and International Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is widely known as an expert on nuclear weapons and missile technology.
Educated in physics and nuclear engineering at MIT, he was a researcher at Argonne National Lab, worked at the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, and was scientific advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations.
After leaving the Pentagon, Postol helped to build a program at Stanford University to train mid-career scientists to study weapons technology in relation to defense and arms control policy.
He has received numerous awards, including the Leo Szilard Prize from the American Physical Society for "incisive technical analysis of national security issues that [have] been vital for informing the public policy debate", the Norbert Wiener Award from Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility for "uncovering numerous and important false claims about missile defenses", and the Richard L. Garwin Award "that recognizes an individual who, through exceptional achievement in science and technology, has made an outstanding contribution toward the benefit of mankind."
Steve and Ted discuss:
0:00 Introduction
2:02 Early life in Brooklyn, education at MIT, work at the Pentagon
20:27 Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense plan
28:26 U.S. influence on Russia and China’s second-strike capabilities
54:41 Missile defense: vs nuclear weapons, scuds, anti-ship missiles (aircraft carriers), hypersonics
1:11:42 Nuclear escalation and the status of mutually assured destruction
1:32:24 Analysis of claims the Syrian government used chemical agents against their own people
1:44:45 Media skepticism
Resources:
Theodore Postol at MIT
https://sts-program.mit.edu/people/emeriti-faculty/theodore-postol/
A Flawed and Dangerous US Missile Defense Plan, G. Lewis and T. Postol, Arms Control Today
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010-05/flawed-dangerous-us-missile-defense-plan
Review Cites Flaws in US antimissile Program, NY Times May 17 2010
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/world/18missile.html
Improving US Ballistic Missile Defense Policy, G. Lewis and F. von Hippel, Arms Control Today, May 2018
https://sgs.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/lewis-vonhippel-2018.pdf
“Whose Sarin?” by Seymour Hersh (2013)
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v35/n24/seymour-m.-hersh/whose-sarin
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Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Raghu Parthasarathy is the Alec and Kay Keith Professor of Physics at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on biophysics, exploring systems in which the complex interactions between individual components, such as biomolecules or cells, can give rise to simple and robust physical patterns. Raghu is the author of a recent popular science book: So Simple a Beginning: How Four Physical Principles Shape Our Living World.
Steve and Raghu discuss:
1:34 - Early life, transition from Physics to Biophysics
20:15 - So Simple a Beginning: discussion of the Four Physical Principles in the title, which govern biological systems
26:06 - DNA prediction
37:46 - Machine learning / causality in science
46:23 - Scaling (the fourth physical principle)
54:12 - Who the book is for and what high schoolers are learning in their bio and physics classes
1:05:41 - Science funding, grants, running a research lab
1:09:12 - Scientific careers and radical sub-optimality of the existing system
Resources:
Book - https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691200408/so-simple-a-beginning
Raghuveer Parthasarathy's lab at the University of Oregon - https://pages.uoregon.edu/raghu/
Raghuveer Parthasarathy's blog the Eighteenth Elephant - https://eighteenthelephant.com/
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Carl Zha is the host of the Silk and Steel podcast, which focuses on China, history, culture, and politics. He is a former engineer now based in Bali, Indonesia.
Find Carl on Twitter @CarlZha.
Steve and Carl discuss:
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Carl’s background: Chongqing to Chicago, Caltech to Bali, Life as a digital nomad
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Xinjiang (35:20)
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Ukraine (1:03:51)
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China-Russia relationship (1:16:01)
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U.S.-China competition (1:49:26)
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Scott Aaronson is the David J. Bruton Centennial Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center. Previously, he taught for nine years in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. His research interests center around the capabilities and limits of quantum computers, and computational complexity theory more generally.
Scott also writes the blog Shtetl Optimized: https://scottaaronson.blog/
Steve and Scott discuss:
- Scott's childhood and education, first exposure to mathematics and computers.
- How he became interested in computational complexity, pursuing it rather than AI/ML.
- The development of quantum computation and quantum information theory from the 1980s to the present. Scott's work on quantum supremacy.
- AGI, AI Safety
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Sebastian Mallaby is a writer and journalist whose work covers financial markets, international relations, innovation, and technology. He is the author of "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future." Steve and Sebastian discuss venture capital, tech startups, business model and technology innovation, global adoption of the Silicon Valley model, and the future of innovation.
Biography:
https://www.cfr.org/expert/sebastian-mallaby
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sebastian_Mallaby
The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future
https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/052555999X
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Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Vlatko Vedral is Professor in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford and Centre for Quantum Technologies (CQT) at the National University of Singapore. He is known for his research on the theory of Entanglement and Quantum Information Theory.
Steve and Vlatko discuss:
- History of quantum information theory, entanglement, and quantum computing
- Recent lab experiments that create superposition states of macroscopic objects, including a living creature (tardigrade)
- Whether quantum mechanics implies the existence of many worlds: are you in a superposition state right now?
- Present status and future of quantum computing
Resources
Web page:
https://www.vlatkovedral.com/
Entanglement Between Superconducting Qubits and a Tardigrade
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.07978.pdf
Macroscopic Superposition States: entanglement of a macroscopic living organism (tardigrade) with a superconducting qubit
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/12/macroscopic-superposition-states.html
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Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or to Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Sander is Jesse Dukeminier Professor at UCLA Law School. AB Harvard, JD, PhD (Economics) Northwestern.
Sander has studied the structure and effects of law school admissions policies. He coined the term "Mismatch" to describe negative consequences resulting from large admissions preferences.
Topics discussed:
- Early life: educational background and experience with race and
politics in America.
- Mismatch Theory: basic observation and empirical evidence; Law
schools and Colleges; Duke and UC data; data access issues.
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CA Prop 209 and Prop 16.
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SCOTUS and Harvard / UNC admissions case
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Intellectual climate on campus, freedom of speech
Resources:
Faculty web page, includes links to publications:
https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/richard-h-sander
A Conversation on the Nature, Effects, and Future of Affirmative Action in Higher Education Admissions (with Peter Arcidiacono, Thomas Espenshade, and Stacy Hawkins), University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law 683 (2015) https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2625668
Fifteen Questions About Prop. 16 and Prop. 209, University of Chicago Law Review Online (2020)
https://lawreviewblog.uchicago.edu/2020/10/30/aa-sander/
Panel at Stanford Intellectual Diversity Conference, April 8, 2016, Stanford Law School
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RZbz-lHwVM
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Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Shai Carmi is Professor of Statistical and Medical Genetics at Hebrew University (Jerusalem).
- Carmi Lab: https://scarmilab.org/
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi
Topics and links:
- Shai's educational background. From statistical physics and network theory to genomics.
- Shai's paper on embryo selection: Schizophrenia risk. Modeling synthetic sibling genomes. Variance among sibs vs general population. RRR vs ARR, family history and elevated polygenic risk. (Link to paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.05.370478v3)
- Response to the ESHG opinion piece on embryo selection. https://twitter.com/ShaiCarmi/status/1487694576458481664
- Pleiotropy, Health Index scores.
- Genetic genealogy and DNA forensics. Solving cold cases, Othram, etc. (Link to paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aau4832)
- Healthcare in Israel. Application of PRS in adult patients.
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Jon Y produces Asianometry, which focuses on Asia technology, finance, and history: Podcast, YouTube channel, and Substack.
Steve and Jon discuss the global semiconductor industry with an emphasis on U.S.-China technology competition.
Topics discussed:
- Jon's background and his move to Taipei.
- Key components of the semiconductor ecosystem: fabs, lithography, chip design.
- US-China tech war
- TSMC, ASML, Huawei
- Taiwan politics: Green and Blue parties, independence
- PRC invasion / blockade of Taiwan?
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Richard Hanania is President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI). He is a former Research Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University. His interests include personality differences between conservatives and liberals, morality in international politics, machine learning algorithms for text analysis, and American foreign policy. In addition to his academic work, he has written in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. Hanania holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from UCLA and a JD from the University of Chicago.
He is the author of the recently published Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.
Resources
Richard Hanania on Twitter - https://twitter.com/RichardHanania
CSPI - https://cspicenter.org/
Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy
https://www.amazon.com/Public-Choice-Theory-Illusion-Strategy-ebook/dp/B09L9Y2W7S
The Great Awokening | Zach Goldberg & Richard Hanania
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UmdveWMURc&ab_channel=CSPI
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
Steve answers questions about recent progress in AI/ML prediction of complex traits from DNA and applications in embryo selection.
Highlights:
- Overview of recent advances in trait prediction
- Would cost savings from breast cancer early detection pay for genotyping of all women?
- How does IVF work? Economics of embryo selection
- Whole embryo genotyping increases IVF success rates (pregnancy per transfer) significantly
- Future predictions
Some relevant scientific papers:
- Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidy: New Methods and Higher Pregnancy Rates - https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2022/01/preimplantation-genetic-testing-for.html
- 2021 review article on complex trait prediction - https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.05870
- Accurate Genomic Prediction of Human Height - https://www.genetics.org/content/210/2/477
- Genomic Prediction of 16 Complex Disease Risks Including Heart Attack, Diabetes, Breast and Prostate Cancer - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-51258-x
- Genetic architecture of complex traits and disease risk predictors - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68881-8
- Sibling validation of polygenic risk scores and complex trait prediction - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-69927-7
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon.
Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.
ManifoldOne YouTube channel.
James Lee is a professor of psychology at the University of Minnesota. He is a leading researcher working in behavior genetics and statistical genetics. In this episode, he discusses recent progress in the genomic prediction of complex traits such as cognitive ability and educational attainment. Lee also discusses his recent Wall Street Journal editorial on embryo selection, Imagine a Future Without Sex.
Resources
- Imagine a Future Without Sex: Reproductive technology may lead us to realize too late that being human is better than playing God
- James Lee academic web page
- Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC)
- Nature Genetics: Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individuals
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon.
Hsu is a startup founder (SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on Twitter @hsu_steve.
You can find Steve's writing on his blog Information Processing.
ManifoldOne YouTube channel.
Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.
Resources
- Transcript
- Good Judgment Inc
- Good Judgment Open
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
- Noriel Roubini (Wikipedia)
Corey and Steve interview Leif Wenar, Professor of Philosophy at Stanford University and author of Blood Oil. They begin with memories of Leif and Corey’s mutual friend David Foster Wallace and end with a discussion of John Rawls and Robert Nozick (Wenar’s thesis advisor at Harvard, and a friend of Steve’s). Corey asks whether Leif shares his view that analytic philosophy had become too divorced from wider intellectual life. Leif explains his effort to re-engage philosophy in the big issues of our day as Hobbes, Rousseau, Locke, Mill and Marx were in theirs. He details how a trip to Nigeria gave him insight into the real problems facing real people in oil-rich countries. Leif explains how the legal concept of “efficiency” led to the resource curse and argues that we should refuse to buy oil from countries that are not minimally accountable to their people. Steve notes that some may find this approach too idealistic and not in the US interest. Leif suggests that what philosophers can contribute is the ability to see the big synthetic picture in a complex world.
Resources
- Transcript
- Leif Wenar (Bio)
- Blood Oil: Tyrants, Violence, and the Rules That Run the World
- John Rawls – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
- Peter Nozick – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Steve and Corey speak with Dr. Michael Kauffman, co-founder and CEO of Karyopharm Therapeutics, about cancer and biotech innovation. Michael explains how he and Dr. Sharon Schacham tested her idea regarding nuclear-transport using simulation software on a home laptop, and went on to beat 1000:1 odds to create a billion dollar company. They discuss the relationship between high proprietary drug costs and economic incentives for drug discovery. They also discuss the unique US biotech ecosystem, and why innovation is easier in small (vs. large) companies. Michael explains how Karyopharm is targeting its drug at COVID-induced inflammation to treat people with severe forms of the disease.
Resources
- Transcript
- Michael Kauffman (Bio)
- Karyopharm’s Publications and Presentations
- The Great American Drug Deal: A New Prescription for Innovative and Affordable Medicinesby Peter Kolchinsky
Corey and Steve talk to Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert and author of Loserthink. Steve reviews some of Scott’s predictions, including of Trump’s 2016 victory. Scott (who once semi-humorously described himself as “left of Bernie”) describes what he describes as Trump’s unique “skill stack”. Scott highlights Trump’s grasp of the role of psychology in economics, and maintains that honesty requires admitting that we do not know whether many of Trump’s policies are good or bad. Scott explains why he thinks it is mistaken to assume leaders are irrational.
Resources
- Transcript
- Scott Adams (Blog and Podcast)
- Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America
- Kihlstrom J. F. (1997). Hypnosis, memory and amnesia. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 352(1362), 1727–1732. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0155
- Hypnosis and Memory (Blog Post)
Steve and Corey talk to James Oakes, Distinguished Professor of History and Graduate School Humanities Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, about “The 1619 Project” developed by The New York Times Magazine. The project argues that slavery was the defining event of US history. Jim argues that slavery was actually the least exceptional feature of the US and that what makes the US exceptional is that it is where abolition first begins. Steve wonders about the views of Thomas Jefferson who wrote that “all men are created equal” but still held slaves. Jim maintains many founders were hypocrites, but Jefferson believed what he wrote.
Other topics: Northern power, Industrialization, Capitalism, Lincoln, Inequality, Cotton, Labor, Civil War, Racism/Antiracism, Black Ownership.
Resources
- Transcript
- James Oakes (Bio)
- Oakes and Colleagues Letter to the NYT and the Editor’s Response (NYT)
- The Fight Over the 1619 Project Is Not About the Facts (The Atlantic)
- The World Socialist Web Site interview with James Oakes
- Benjamin Lay, the first revolutionary abolitionist (Smithsonian Mag)
- Oakes, J. (2016). Capitalism and Slavery and the Civil War. International Labor and Working-Class History
- Wright, G. (2020), Slavery and Anglo‐American capitalism revisited . The Economic History Review
- John J. Clegg, “Capitalism and Slavery,” Critical Historical Studies 2
- Olmstead, Alan L. & Rhode, Paul W., 2018. “Cotton, slavery, and the new history of capitalism,” Explorations in Economic History
For those interested in exploring Jefferson’s and Lincoln’s views further Professor Oakes recommends the following books:
- John C. Miller, The Wolf by the Ears: Thomas Jefferson and Slavery
- Graham A. Peck, Making an Antislavery Nation: Lincoln, Douglas, and the Battle over Freedom
Steve and Corey talk with Robert Atkinson, President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation about his philosophy of National Developmentalism. They discuss the history of industrial policy and mercantilism in the US and China. Why did the US lose 1/3 of its manufacturing jobs in the 2000s? How much was due to automation and how much to Chinese competition? Atkinson discusses US R&D and recommends policies that will help the US compete with China.
Other topics: Forced technology transfer, IP theft, semiconductors and Micron technologies (DRAM), why the WTO cannot handle misbehavior by China.
Resources
- Transcript
- Robert Atkinson (Bio)
- Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)
- Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Mythology of Small Business(MIT Press, 2018)
- Innovation Economics: The Race for Global Advantage(Yale, 2012)
Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist Raman Sundrum. They discuss the last 30 years in fundamental physics, and look toward the next. Raman argues that Physics is a marketplace of ideas. While many theories did not stand the test of time, they represented avenues that needed to be explored. Corey expresses skepticism about the possibility of answering questions such as why the laws of physics have the form they do. Raman and Steve argue that attempts to answer such questions have led to great advances. Topics: models and experiments, Naturalness, the anthropic principle, dark matter and energy, and imagination.
Resources
- Transcript
- Raman Sundrum (Faculty Bio)
- Sabine Hossenfelder on the Crisis in Particle Physics and Against the Next Big Collider – #8
Steve and Corey talk with theoretical physicist turned hedge fund investor Vineer Bhansali. Bhansali describes his transition from physics to finance, his firm LongTail Alpha, and his recent outsize returns from the coronavirus financial crisis. Also discussed: derivatives pricing, random walks, helicopter money, and Modern Monetary Theory.
Resources
- Transcript
- LongTail Alpha
- LongTail Alpha’s OneTail Hedgehog Fund II had 929% Return (Bloomberg)
- A New Anomaly Matching Condition? (1993)
Steve talks with Skype founder and global tech investor Jaan Tallinn. Will the coronavirus pandemic lead to better planning for future global risks? Jaan gives his list of top existential risks and describes his efforts to call attention to AI risk. They discuss AGI, the Simulation Question, the Fermi Paradox and how these are all connected. Do we live in a simulation of a quantum multiverse?
Rationality
- Jaan X-Risk Links
- LessWrong
- Slate Star Codex
- Metaculus
Additional Resources
- Transcript
- Fermi Paradox — Where Are All The Aliens?
- Is Hilbert space discrete?
Steve and Corey talk to legendary NCAA and Olympic wrestler and coach Dan Gable. Gable describes the final match of his collegiate career, an NCAA championship upset which spoiled his undefeated high school and college record. The Coach explains how the loss led him to take a more scientific approach to training and was critical for his later success. They discuss the tragic murder of Gable’s sister, and the steps 15-year old Gable took try to save his parents’ marriage. Gable describes his eye for talent and philosophy of developing athletes. Steve gets Gable’s reaction to ultimate fighting and jiujitsu.
Resources
- Transcript
- Dan Gable vs Larry Owings – 1970 NCAA Title Match (video)
- The Champion (1970 documentary on Gable’s senior NCAA season)
Steve and Corey talk to Klaus Lackner, director of the Center for Negative Carbon Emissions (CNCE) at Arizona State University and the first person to suggest removing CO2 from air to address climate change. Steve asks whether Klaus’ research was motivated by a tail risk of catastrophic outcomes due to CO2 build up. Klaus explains that he sees atmospheric CO2 as a waste management problem. Calculations show that removing human-produced carbon is energetically and economically viable. Klaus describes his invention, a “mechanical tree”, that passively collects CO2 from the air, allowing it to be stored or converted to fuel.
Resources
- Transcript
- Klaus Lackner (Faculty Bio)
- Center for Negative Carbon Emissions at ASU
Steve and Corey talk to Kieren James-Lubin and Victor Wong of the blockchain technology startup, BlockApps. They begin with a discussion of the COVID-19 epidemic (~25m): lockdown, predictions of ICU overload, and helicopter money. Will personal contact tracking become the new normal? Transitioning to blockchain, a technology many view as viable even in times of widespread societal disruption, they give a basic explanation of the underlying cryptographic and consensus algorithms. Kieren and Victor explain how BlockApps was founded, its business model, and history as a startup. They conclude with a comparison of startup ecosystems in China, Silicon Valley, and NYC.
Resources
- Transcript
- Kieren James-Lubin
- Victor Wong
Corey and Steve talk to Claude Steele of Stanford about his article “Why Campuses are So Tense?”. The essay explores stereotype threats across racial lines. Colorblindness is a standard of fairness, but what are the costs of ignoring our differences? Claude describes his research on minority underperformance and why single sex colleges may contribute to women’s success. Corey describes why he believes his daughter’s experience is a counterexample to the findings of the experiments that led the Supreme Court to outlaw segregation. The three discuss parenting in a diverse world and how ethnic integration differs between Europe and the US.
Resources
- Transcript
- Claude Steele
- Why Campuses are So Tense?
- Whistling Vivaldi: And Other Clues to How Stereotypes Affect Us
- In Struggle: SNCC and the Black Awakening of the 1960s
Corey and Steve talk with MSU Neuroscientist A.J. Robison about why females may be more likely to suffer from depression than males. A.J. reviews past findings that low testosterone and having a smaller hippocampus may predict depression risk. He explains how a serendipitous observation opened up his current line of research and describes tools he uses to study neural circuits. Steve asks about the politics of studying sex differences and tells of a start up using CRISPR to attack heart disease. The three end with a discussion of the psychological effects of ketamine, testosterone and deep brain stimulation.
Topics
- 01:18 – Link between antidepressants, neurogenesis and reducing risk of depression
- 13:54 – Nature of Mouse models
- 23:19 – How you tell whether a mouse exhibits depressive symptoms
- 32:36 – Liz Williams’ serendipitous finding and the issue of biological sex
- 45:47 – A.J.’s research plans for circuit specific gene editing in the mouse brain and a start up’s plan to use it to tackle human cardiovascular disease
- 59:07 – Psychological and Neurological Effects of Ketamine. Testosterone and Deep Brain Stimulation
Resources
- Transcript
- Robison Lab at MSU
- @RobisonLabMSU
Papers
- Androgen-dependent excitability of mouse ventral hippocampal afferents to nucleus accumbens underlies sex-specific susceptibility to stress.
- Neurogenesis and The Effect of Antidepressants
- Integrating Interleukin-6 into depression diagnosis and treatment
- Sub-chronic variable stress induces sex-specific effects on glutamatergic synapses in the nucleus accumbens.
- Prefrontal cortical circuit for depression- and anxiety-related behaviors mediated by cholecystokinin: role of ΔFosB.
- Emerging role of viral vectors for circuit-specific gene interrogation and manipulation in rodent brain.
Kaja Perina is the Editor in Chief of Psychology Today. Kaja, Steve, and Corey discuss so-called Dark Triad personality traits: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, and Psychopathy. Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people? What is the difference between Sociopathy and Psychopathy? Are CEOs often “warm sociopaths”? Can too much empathy be a liability? Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy. Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today. Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses.
Topics
- 2:33 – Psychopathology and the Dark Triad
- 11:34 – Do these traits manifest more often in super successful people?
- 17:52 – Can too much empathy be a liability?
- 35:16 – Corey laments Sociopathy in academic Philosophy
- 50:32 – Kaja explains the operation of Psychology Today
- 1:01:06 – Steve reveals his Hypomania diagnoses
Resources
- Transcript
- Kaja Perina (Psychology Today)
Steve and Corey talk to Adam Dynes of Brigham Young University about whether voting has an effect on policy outcomes. Adam’s work finds that control of state legislatures or governorships does not have an observable effect on macroscopic variables such as crime rates, the economy, etc. Possible explanations: parties push essentially the same policies, politicians don’t keep promises, monied interest control everything. Are voting decisions just noisy mood affiliation? Perhaps time is better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure.
Topics
- 1:22 – What is retrospective voting?
- 5:43 – Research findings on retrospective voting
- 14:02 – Uniparty/Monied interests?
- 17:23 – Martin Gilens’ research
- 23:10 – Are people just voting based on noise or mood affiliation?
- 27:13 – Bryan Caplan – Myth of the Rational Voter
- 34:35 – Is time better spent obsessing about sports teams, which at least generates pleasure?
- 39:42 – After the fall of Athens, was democracy commonly referred to as irrational mob rule?
- 48:22 – Does this research translate to the national level?
- 52:19 – Super Nerdy Stuff: Statistical Analysis, Reproducibility & Null Results
- 56:40 – Reactions to the results
Resources
- Transcript
- Adam Dynes (Personal Website)
- Adam Dynes (Faculty Profile)
- Noisy Retrospection: The Effect of Party Control on Policy Outcomes
Yang Wang is Dean of Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Wang received his BS degree in mathematics from University of Science and Technology of China in 1983, and his PhD degree from Harvard University in 1990 under the supervision of Fields medalist David Mumford. He served as Chair of the Mathematics department at Michigan State University before joining HKUST.
Topics
- 2:50 – US-China Relations: Has China advanced through the development of human capital or the theft of intellectual property?
- 16:23 – Academic Culture in China
- 33:00 – Hong Kong Protests: Economic inequality, housing prices, and outside actors.
- 1:04:09 – Coronavirus COVID-19: Has the Coronavirus established a new mode of online education in Hong Kong? Yang makes a forecast about the epidemic’s trajectory.
Resources
- Transcript
- Yang Wang, Dean of Science at HKUST
- Yang Wang (Faculty Profile)
Steve and Corey talk to Elizabeth Kolbert, author of the Sixth Extinction, about the current state of the climate debate. All three are pessimistic about the possibility that emissions will be substantively reduced in the near term, and they discuss technologies for removing carbon from the atmosphere. They explore uncertainty in the models regarding temperatures rise and precipitation, and contemplate a billion people are on the move in response to climate change and population increase. They ask: what is more of a threat to humanity in the coming century, runaway AI or runaway climate change?
Resources
- Transcript
- Elizabeth Kolbert (The New Yorker)
- Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change
- The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History
- New York City Sea Wall
- Miami Mitigation
- Jobs and AI
- Carbon Capture
Corey and Steve talk to Meghan Daum about her new book “The Problem With Everything: My Journey Through The New Culture Wars”. Meghan describes how she became aware of the “Red Pill” through what she calls “free speech YouTube” videos. The three ask whether their feeling of alienation from Gen-Z wokeness is just a sign of getting old or reflects principles of free speech and open debate. Megan argues that Gen-Z’s focus on fairness leads to difficult compromises. They discuss social interactions in the pre-internet, early-internet, and woke-internet eras.
Resources
- Transcript
- Author Website
- Meghan Daum on Medium
- The Problem with Everything: My Journey Through the New Culture Wars
Steve and Corey talk with Steven Broglio, Director of the Michigan Concussion Center, about concussion risk, prevention and treatment. Broglio describes how the NCAA emerged from the deaths that almost led Theodore Roosevelt to outlaw college football. He also explains recent findings on CTE, why females may be at greater concussion risk, and why sleep is critical to avoiding long-term brain injury. They discuss how new rules probably make football safer and debate why New England is so down on kids playing football. Steve wonders whether skills are in decline now that some schools have eliminated “contact” in practices.
Resources
- Transcript
- Steven Broglio (Faculty Profile)
- Michigan Concussion Center
- NeuroTrauma Research Laboratory
- NCAA-DoD Grand Alliance: Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education (CARE)
Our guest, Barbara O’Brien, explains why we don’t know much about conviction error outside of murder cases, making error rates for the vast majority of crimes: misdemeanors, sexual assaults, armed robbery, etc. a “dark ocean”. She explains factors that contribute to wrongful convictions including mistaken cross-racial identification in sexual assault cases. Barbara also talks about the surprising frequency of “rain damage” to evidence rooms and why Texas leads the way in both executions and criminal justice reform. The two consider why having your death sentence commuted to life in prison means you are actually less likely to ever to be released.
Resources
- Transcript
- Barbara O’Brien (Faculty Profile)
- The National Registry Of Exonerations
This conversation occurred just after President Trump withdrew US forces from Northern Syria. Steve, Corey and Sebastian debate ISIS and the Kurds. Sebastian argues that men who went to war after 9/11 wanted to experience communal masculinity, as their fathers and grandfathers had in Vietnam and WWII, a tradition dating back millennia. When they came home, they faced the isolation of affluent contemporary American society, leading to high rates of addiction, depression, and suicide. War veterans in less developed countries may be psychologically better off, supported by a more traditional social fabric.
Resources
- Transcript
- Sebastian Junger
- Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging (Book)
- War (Book)
- Hell on Earth (Trailer)
- Restrepo (Trailer)
- Manifold: David Skrbina on Ted Kaczynski, Technological Slavery, and the Future of Our Species – #7
MSU Psychology Professor Zach Hambrick joins Corey and Steve to discuss general cognitive ability, the science of personnel selection, and research on the development of skills and expertise. Is IQ really the single best predictor of job performance? Corey questions whether g is the best predictor across all fields and whether its utility declines at a certain skill level. What does the experience of the US military tell us about talent selection? Is the 10,000 hour rule for skill development valid? What happened to the guy who tried to make himself into a professional golfer through 10,000 hours of golf practice?
Resources
- Transcript
- Science of Expertise
- Zach Hambrick (Faculty Profile)
- Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery
- Project 100,000 (1960s DoD Program)
- Test Validity Study Report (CLA)
- The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology
Steve and Corey talk to Andrew about his new introduction to his book “The War for the Soul of America.” While the left largely won the culture wars, the three wonder whether the pendulum has swung so far left that many liberals are alienated by today’s cultural norms.
Other topics: Was the left’s victory in the debate over the college curriculum pyrrhic? Is identity politics a necessary step in liberation or a problematic slide toward greater division or both? Are current students too sensitive, and easily triggered, to take the fight to the Billionaire class?
Resources
- Transcript
- Andrew Hartman (Faculty Profile)
- A War for the Soul of America: A History of the Culture Wars
- [BONUS] – Left and Right at MSU – #27.5
Originally from Portugal, Bruno Maçães earned a PhD in Political Science at Harvard under Harvey Mansfield, and served as Portugal’s Secretary of State for European Affairs from 2013-2015. He is regarded as a leading geopolitical thinker with deep insights concerning the future of Eurasia and relations between the West and China. He is the author of two widely acclaimed books published in 2018: The Dawn of Eurasia and Belt and Road.
Topics discussed include: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle Income Trap, A Chinese World Order, Techno-Optimism in East and West, China-Russia alliance and geopolitics, the future of Eurasia and the EU.
Resources
- Transcript
- Russia to China: Together we can rule the World (Politico.eu)
- Equilibrium Americanum (Berlin Policy Journal)
- The Dawn of Eurasia: On the Trail of the New World Order
- Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order
- History Has Begun: The Birth of a New America
Steve and Corey talk to Ted about his article for the August issue of Harper’s Magazine, “The Last Frontier”. Ted describes how Trump’s election led him to seek out his new project on people living off the grid in Colorado’s San Luis Valley (“Appalachia without the Trees”). The three discuss how immigration has changed since he wrote Coyotes in 1987. Ted explains how working as a prison guard in Sing Sing led to the uncomfortable realization that he was getting comfortable with unnecessary violence and offers advice to young people seeking to write interesting stories in the new media landscape.
Resources
- Transcript
- Ted Conover
- The Last Frontier: Homesteaders on the margins of America
- Coyotes: A Journey Through the Secret World of America’s Illegal Aliens
- Newjack: Guarding Sing Sing
- Rolling Nowhere: Riding the Rails with America’s Hoboes
Steve and Corey talk to Jason about a fundamental question of neuroscience: Do humans grow new neurons as adults? The dogma that humans do not, gave way to the dogma that they do, which is now being questioned. Adult neurogenesis has been associated with learning, better cognitive function and resistance to depression. Jason suggests that a simple error of treating young mice as models for adult humans led to excessive optimism regarding the potential for later neuronal growth. Recent findings suggest that adults grow few, if any, new neurons but that what little neurogenesis occurs can probably be enhanced by exercise.
Resources
- Transcript
- The Synder Lab
- Warren Sturgis McCulloch Interview (1969)
Steve and Corey talk to Tim Searchinger about the unintended consequences of biofuels policies. Searchinger argues that these policies do not consider the opportunity costs of using plants for fuel rather than food. Combined with crazy carbon accounting principles, existing rules make cutting down trees in the US, shipping them to Europe and burning them in power plants count as carbon neutral under the Kyoto protocol. The three also discuss how eating less beef in the developed world along with educating women, family planning, and reducing child mortality in the developing world can decrease stress on land use and emissions.
Resources
- Transcript
- Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050
- Timothy Searchinger
Jamie Metzl joins Corey and Steve to discuss his new book, Hacking Darwin. They discuss detailed predictions for the progress in genomic technology, particularly in human reproduction, over the coming decade: genetic screening of embryos will become commonplace, gene-editing may become practical and more widely accepted, stem cell technology may allow creation of unlimited numbers of eggs and embryos. Metzl is a Technology Futurist, Geopolitics Expert, and Sci-Fi Novelist. He was appointed to the World Health Organization expert advisory committee governance and oversight of human genome editing. Jamie previously served in the U.S. National Security Council, State Department, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a Human Rights Officer for the United Nations in Cambodia. He holds a Ph.D. in Southeast Asian history from Oxford University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School.
Resources
- Transcript
- Hacking Darwin: Genetic Engineering and the Future of Humanity
- Jamie Metzl’s Personal Website
Polymath and economist Tyler Cowen (Holbert L. Harris Professor at GMU) joins Steve and Corey for a wide-ranging discussion. Are books just for advertising? Have blogs peaked? Are podcasts the future or just a bubble? Is technological change slowing? Is there less political correctness in China than the US? Tyler’s new book, an apologia for big business, inspires a discussion of CEO pay and changing public attitudes toward socialism. They investigate connections between populism, stagnant wage growth, income inequality and immigration. Finally, they discuss the future global order and trajectories of the US, EU, China, and Russia.
Resources
- Transcript
- Personal Website
- Marginal Revolution [Blog]
- Conversations with Tyler [Podcast]
- Tyler Cowen | Bloomberg Opinion Columnist
- Big Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero
Steve and Corey talk to Betsy McKay, senior writer on U.S. and global public health at The Wall Street Journal, about her recent articles on heart disease. Betsy describes how background reporting led to her article linking the recent drop in life expectancy in the United States, often attributed to the opioid crisis or increases in middle age suicides due to economic despair, to the increasing prevalence of heart disease, driven by the rise in obesity. The three also discuss current public health recommendations on how to reduce heart disease risk and on the use of calcium scans to assess arterial plaque buildup. Steve describes boutique medical programs available to the super-rich that include full body scans to search for early signs of disease. Betsy elaborates on how she approached reporting on a new study linking egg consumption to higher cholesterol and increased risk of death, a result at odds with other recent findings and national recommendations that two eggs a day eggs is safe and healthy. Finally, they consider whether people are wasting money on buying fish oil supplements.
Resources
- Transcript
- Death Rates Rising for Young, Middle-Aged U.S. Adults
- How to Reduce Your Risk of Heart Disease
- New BP guidelines that set elevated BP as above 120mmHG/80 and Stage 1 hypertension is 120-130/80-90, Stage 2 140/90 or above.
- New ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guidelines Lower Definition of Hypertension
- Heart Attack at 49—America’s Biggest Killer Makes a Deadly Comeback
- Study Links Eggs to Higher Cholesterol and Risk of Heart Disease
- Fish Oil: Hunting for Evidence to Tip the Scales
- Don’t Use Bootleg or Street Vaping Products, C.D.C. Warns
Steve and Corey speak with Ted Chiang about his recent story collection “Exhalation” and his inaugural essay for the New York Times series, Op-Eds from the Future. Chiang has won Nebula and Hugo awards for his widely influential science fiction writing. His short story “Story of Your Life,” was the basis of the film Arrival (2016). Their discussion explores the scientific and philosophical ideas in Ted’s work, including whether free will is possible, and implications of AI, neuroscience, and time travel. Ted explains why his skepticism about whether the US is truly a meritocracy leads him to believe that the government-funded genetic modification he envisages in his Op-Ed would not solve the problem of inequality.
Resources
- Exhalation by Ted Chiang
- Stories of Your Life and Others by Ted Chiang
- Ted Chiang’s New York Times Op-Ed From the Future
- Transcript
Dr. Rebecca Campbell is a Professor of Psychology at Michigan State University, whose research focuses on violence against women and children with an emphasis on sexual assault. Steve and Corey discuss her recent National Institute of Justice-funded project to study Detroit’s untested rape kits. Dr. Campbell describes the problem of untested kits and her work with police departments around the country to reduce the backlog. She explains how the use of the national CODIS database has led to sharply higher estimates of the proportion of rapes committed by serial perpetrators and how many rapists appear to be criminal “generalists”, committing a wide range of offenses. She describes the dynamics of sexual assault investigations, the factors that lead police to put more effort into investigating certain cases over others, and how common ways of questioning women can lead them to disengage from the process. Other topics include the incentives at work in law enforcement, the slow pace at which new research in DNA testing and treatment of victims is incorporated into police training, and Dr. Campbell’s efforts to engage with law enforcement agencies to improve investigative practices.
RESOURCES
Papers
- The National Problem of Untested Sexual Assault Kits (SAKs): Scope, Causes, and Future Directions for Research, Policy, and Practice.
- Forgotten evidence: A mixed methods study of why sexual assault kits (SAKs) are not submitted for DNA forensic testing.
- Why Police “Couldn’t or Wouldn’t” Submit Sexual Assault Kits for Forensic DNA Testing: A Focal Concerns Theory Analysis of Untested Rape Kits
- Tested at Last: How DNA Evidence in Untested Rape Kits Can Identify Offenders and Serial Sexual Assaults.
- Comparing Standard and Selective Degradation DNA Extraction Methods: Results from a Field Experiment with Sexual Assault Kits
- Evaluation of a Victim-Centered, Trauma-Informed Victim Notification Protocol for Untested Sexual Assault Kits (SAKs)
- Do You Wish to Prosecute the Person Who Assaulted You?: Untested Sexual Assault Kits and Victim Notification of Rape Survivors Assaulted as Adolescents
- Will history repeat itself? Growth mixture modeling of suspected serial sexual offending using forensic DNA evidence
Other
- Why Don’t Police Catch Serial Rapists? – The Atlantic
- MSU Appoints Presidential Advisers on Sexual Misconduct Issues
- Transcript
Steve and Corey talk with Mark Moffett, Photographer and Research Fellow at the Smithsonian Institute, about his new book The Human Swarm: How our Societies Arise, Thrive and Fall. They discuss Mark’s view that being able walk into a cafe filled with others and not be attacked illustrates what makes human societies distinct and so successful. Mark explains why he is far more interested in questions about when war and other events occur than with traditional issues such as the genetic origins of human behavior. The three discuss Dehumanization and its Chimp equivalent, Dechimpanizeeization, and how they lead to the division of societies, friend turning against friend, and genocide. They discuss the conditions under which foreigners are embraced and whether the US might ever enter into a post-racial society where group differences don’t matter and immigrants are more easily accepted.
Resources
- Mark Moffett’s Bio
- Mark Moffett’s Photography
- The Human Swarm: How Our Societies Arise, Thrive, and Fall
- Transcript
John Schulman is a research scientist at OpenAI. He co-leads the Reinforcement Learning group and works on agent learning in virtual game worlds (e.g., Dota) as well as in robotics. John, Corey, and Steve talk about AI, AGI (Artifical General Intelligence), the Singularity (self-reinforcing advances in AI which lead to runaway behavior that is incomprehensible to humans), and the creation and goals of OpenAI. They discuss recent advances in language models (GPT-2) and whether these results raise doubts about the usefulness of linguistic research over the past 60 years. Does GPT-2 imply that neural networks trained using large amounts of human-generated text can encode “common sense” knowledge about the world? They also discuss what humans are better at than current AI systems, and near term examples of what is already feasible: for example, using AI drones to kill people.
Resources
- John Schulman
- OpenAI
- Better Language Models and Their Implications (GPT-2)
- Transcript
Daniel Max, staff writer at The New Yorker and author of Every Love Story is A Ghost Story, a biography of David Foster Wallace, speaks with Corey and Steve about his first book, The Family that Couldn’t Sleep. The discussion covers the emerging genre of literary non-fiction, Daniel’s process of writing The Family that Couldn’t Sleep, and how he approached and gained the trust of the family at the heart of the story. Corey probes Daniel about how he handled the complex scientific characters, Carl Gajdusek and Stanley Prusiner, who led research into prion disease for 40 years. Daniel recounts how Shirley Glasse (now Lindenbaum) discovered how prions were transmitted through ritual cannibalism in Papua New, a critical step in solving the mystery of what causes of the disease, but how credit was given to Gajdusek. The three discuss the painfully slow pace of research and the inspiring story of a young couple, Eric Minikel and Sonia Vallabh, who have changed careers to dedicate their lives to finding a cure.
Resources
- Max’s New Yorker Page
- Max’s initial 2001 article for the New York Times Magazine on the Italian Family with FFI
- Max’s 2013 New Yorker story on Minikel and Vallabh
- The Family that Couldn’t Sleep
- Every Love Story is A Ghost Story
- Transcript
Steve and Corey speak with Stuart Firestein (Professor of Neuroscience at Columbia University, specializing in the olfactory system) about his two books Ignorance: How It Drives Science and Failure: Why Science Is So Successful. Stuart explains why he thinks that it is a mistake to believe that scientists make discoveries by following the “scientific method” and what he sees as the real relationship between science and art. We discuss Stuart’s recent research showing that current models of olfactory processing are wrong, while Steve delves into the puzzling infinities in calculations that led to the development of quantum electrodynamics. Stuart also makes the case that the theory of intelligent design is more intelligent than most scientists give it credit for and that it would be wise to teach it in science classes.
Resources
- Stuart Firestein
- Failure: Why Science Is so Successful
- Ignorance: How it drives science
- Transcript
Corey and Steve continue their discussion with Joe Cesario and examine methodological biases in the design and conduct of experiments in social psychology and ideological bias in the interpretation of the findings. Joe argues that experiments in his field are designed to be simple but that in making experimental set ups simple researchers remove critical factors that actually matter for a police officer to make a decision in the real world. In consequence, he argues that the results cannot be taken to show anything about actual police behavior. Joe maintains that social psychology as a whole is biased toward the left politically and that this affects how courses are taught and research conducted. Steve points out the university faculty on the whole tend to be shifted left relative to the general population. Joe, Corey, and Steve discuss the current ideological situation on campus and how it can be alienating for students from conservative backgrounds.
Resources
- Joseph Cesario’s Lab
- A new look at racial disparities in police use of deadly force
- Transcript
James Cham is a partner at Bloomberg Beta, a venture capital firm focused on the future of work. James invests in companies applying machine intelligence to businesses and society. Prior to Bloomberg Beta, James was a Principal at Trinity Ventures and a VP at Bessemer Venture Partners. He was educated in computer science at Harvard and at the MIT Sloan School of Business.
Resources
- James Cham
- Bloomberg Beta
- Transcript
Corey and Steve talk with Joe Cesario about his recent work showing that, contrary to many activist claims and media reports, there is no widespread racial bias in police shootings. Joe discusses his analysis of national criminal justice data and his experimental studies with police officers in a specially designed realistic simulator. He maintains that evidence suggests that racial bias does exist in other uses force of force such as tasering but that the decision to shoot is fundamentally different and driven by facts about criminal context in which officers find themselves rather than race.
Resources
- Example of officer completing shooting simulator
- A new look at racial disparities in police use of deadly force
- Is There Evidence of Racial Disparity in Police Use of Deadly Force? Analyses of Officer-Involved Fatal Shootings in 2015–2016
- Overview of Current Research on Officer-Involved Shootings
- Joseph Cesario’s Lab
- Transcript
Ron Unz is the publisher of the Unz Review, a controversial, but widely read, alternative media site hosting opinion outside of the mainstream, including from both the far right and the far left. Unz studied theoretical physics at Harvard, Cambridge and Stanford. He founded the software company Wall Street Analytics, acquired by Moody’s in 2006, and was behind the 1998 ballot initiative that ended bilingual education in California.
Resources
- The Unz Review
- The Myth of American Meritocracy – How corrupt are Ivy League admissions?
- The Myth of American Meritocracy and Other Essays
- Transcript
Corey and Steve speak with Samuel Kerstein, Professor of Philosophy and expert in Medical Ethics at the University of Maryland. They discuss the ethics of genome engineering and preimplantation embryo selection, and the inequality and narrowing of human diversity that might result from widespread adoption of these technologies. Among the topics covered: Why genome engineering at this time is immoral. Should we always pick the healthiest embryo? In the future will parents have a moral obligation to engineer their children? Will there be an arms race between countries to engineer their populations? Is Star Trek’s Khan a more advanced person (Steve) or just another smart psychopath (Sam) or both?
Resources
- Samuel J. Kerstein
- How to Treat Persons by Samuel J. Kerstein
- CRISPR Babies – Episode #1
- Transcript
Hossenfelder is a Research Associate at the Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies. Her research areas include particle physics and quantum gravity. She discusses the current state of theoretical physics, and her recent book Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray.
Resources
- The Uncertain Future of Particle Physics (New York Times Article)
- Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray (Book)
- Transcript
David Skrbina is a philosopher at the University of Michigan. He and Ted Kaczynski published the book Technological Slavery, which elaborates on the Unabomber manifesto and contains about 100 pages of correspondence between the two which took place over almost a decade. Skrbina discusses his and Kaczynski’s views on deep problems of technological society, and whether violent opposition to it is justified.
Resources
- David Skrbina’s Featured Publications
- Photos of Ted Kacynski
- David Skrbina, Pen Pal of the Unabomber, on Ted Kaczynski’s Philosophy
- Tribe by Sebastian Junger
- Joe Rogan Experience #975 – Sebastian Junger
- Transcript
Hawks is the Vilas-Borghesi Distinguished Achievement Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. He is an anthropologist and studies the bones and genes of ancient humans. He’s worked on almost every part of our evolutionary story, from the very origin of our lineage among the apes, to the last 10,000 years of our history.
Resources
- John Hawks Weblog
- Ghosts and Hybrids: How ancient DNA and new fossils are changing human origins (Research Presentation)
- Transcript
Kaiser Kuo is a host and co-founder of Sinica, a current affairs podcast originally based in Beijing. Sinica guests include prominent journalists, academics, and policy makers who participate in uncensored discussions about Chinese political, economic, and cultural affairs.
Resources
- Sinica Podcast
- Personal Ties, Meritocracy, and China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign
- “MMG | Kaiser Kuo” by Meet the media Guru is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
- Transcript
Corey and Steve speak with Ted Shultz, research Entomologist at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. Ted is an expert in Leaf Cutter Ant evolution and systematics. Topics discussed include evolution, systematics, the genetic basis of behavior, E. O. Wilson and small revolutions in science.
Resources
- Ted Schultz
- Science Magazine Table of Contents – December 9, 1994
- As flies to wanton boys are we to the gods (Seymour Benzer)
- The City Under the Back Steps
- Transcript
Corey and Steve interview Noor Siddiqui, a student at Stanford studying AI, Machine Learning, and Genomics. She was previously a Thiel Fellow, and founded a medical collaboration technology startup after high school. The conversation covers topics like college admissions, Tiger parenting, Millennials, Stanford, Silicon Valley startup culture, innovation in the US healthcare industry, and Simplicity and Genius.
Resources
- Noor Siddiqui
- Thiel Fellows
- Transcript
Corey and Steve are joined by Bobby Kausthuri, a Neuroscientist at Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago. Bobby specializes in nanoscale mapping of brains using automated fine slicing followed by electron microscopy. Among the topics covered: Brain mapping, the nature of scientific progress (philosophy of science), Biology vs Physics, Is the brain too complex to be understood by our brains? AlphaGo, the Turing Test, and wiring diagrams, Are scientists underpaid? The future of Neuroscience.
▶️ WATCH: Bobby Kausthuri & Brain Mapping — Episode #2
Resources
- Bobby Kasthuri Bio
- The Physicist and the Neuroscientist: A Tale of Two Connectomes
- Computing Machinery and Intelligence by Alan M. Turing
- Transcript
Corey and Steve discuss news of gene edited babies in China, and the future of human genetic engineering.
▶️ Watch: CRISPR Babies — Episode #1
Resources
- Generation CRISPR?
- He did it: He Jiankui talk at HKU conference on gene editing
- Economist Radio podcast interview on Genomic Prediction
- Transcript