The Global Citizen: Recent Episodes
Mel Gurtov
The Global Citizen podcast addresses foreign affairs from a human-interest standpoint, meaning that principles of social justice, environmental stewardship, protection and promotion of human rights, and peace frame the analysis. Greed, injustice, and violence are my targets; and diplomacy focused on engagement is the preferred strategy for transcending differences. As Einstein said, “those who have the privilege to know have the duty to act.”
Japan's government has decided to release into the ocean millions of tons of radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, scene of a meltdown in 2011. The government and the power company are reassuring neighboring countries and fishermen of the wastewater's safety, but there are reasons for concern, not least the precedent being set.
Electric vehicles are touted as one answer to the climate crisis, but as Barry Commoner warned years ago, there is no such thing as a free lunch. The mining, processing, and manufacture of EV components, dominated so far by China but being challenged by the US and several other countries, are causing severe harm to the environment and health of African and Latin American workers. Multinational corporations are in an intense competition over lithium, bauxite, and other minerals, but their chief concern is China, not mine workers. Perhaps it's time to reconsider the comparative benefit of holding on to one's gas-driven vehicle.
The July coup that ousted a democratically elected leader in Niger is the seventh in West Africa since 2020. This time it has aroused the anger of the African Union and the regional economic bloc ECOWAS; the latter issued an ultimatum to the Niger junta that was ignored. Meantime, the coup leaders have reportedly asked for help from the Wagner mercenary group stationed in Mali if an intervention occurs. At this date the situation is a standoff, but one thing is clear: Any form of outside intervention will be a disaster for a population that needs humanitarian and development assistance.
A plan was recently proposed by a number of foreign policy experts to bring about a cease-fire in Ukraine in the wake of a presumed "bloody stalemate." The experts meeting apparently took place with the knowledge of the US and Russian governments. Ukraine, however, was not represented. For that reason and a number of others, such as the recommendation for further upgrading military aid to Ukraine, this Track 2 effort to encourage negotiations is flawed.
A plan was recently proposed by a number of foreign policy experts to bring about a cease-fire in Ukraine in the wake of a presumed "bloody stalemate." The experts meeting apparently took place with the knowledge of the US and Russian governments. Ukraine, however, was not represented. For that reason and a number of others, such as the recommendation for further upgrading military aid to Ukraine, this Track 2 effort to encourage negotiations is flawed.
The judicial overhaul law that the far-right, ultrareligious cabinet members in the Netanyahu government has now pushed through the Knesset has ignited outrage among Israeli citizens and unusually sharp criticism in the Biden administration. Israel's democracy has turned illiberal, and in the process is shattering the notion of shared values between Israel and the US. Some normally strong supporters of Israel in the US are calling for a reevaluation of US aid. With the Israeli extremists prepared to go still further in pursuit of a Jewish state, a crisis in relations with the US seems certain.
Yellen's trip moved the needle on US-China dialogue only slightly forward. She apparently did not bring any new economic or financial proposals to the table, leaving the US with unmet grievances about treatment of its corporations and leaving China with unmet grievances about US and allied denial of advanced semiconductor technology. John Kerry is next up for meetings in Beijing on climate change. We'll see if he and his Chinese counterpart can come up with specific cooperative projects.
This inaugural episode offers reporting and commentary on international news of the previous week or so. Topics for this episode include Japan's new security thinking, anti-racism protests in France, Swedish membership in NATO, Janet Yellen's visit to Beijing, global forest loss, Hong Kong's shrinking democracy, and a few others.
The justice department's China Initiative, under both the Trump and Biden administrations, has had lasting negative effects on scientists of Chinese descent who work in US universities and laboratories. This episode provides the details of both psychological and career distress. Lost sight of is the exceptional value these Chinese scientists have for the US economy and technological leadership--a value stressed by the academic communities that provide their home base. Right-wing charges that Chinese scientists pose a national security risk are sadly mistaken; but if they continue, the trend among them to return to China will continue.
The indictment of Donald J. Trump is a matter of national security, not just American politics. To read the many charges against Trump is to be reminded that there are real secrets of state. Trump blithely ignored the guardrails, though for what ultimate purpose remains a matter of speculation. What Trump's concealment of the documents and obstruction of the federal investigation show is that he remains what he has been since 2016: a threat to national security.
For all the talk about shared values when India's Prime Minister Modi visited Washington, he and President Biden had one common aim: cement India's strategic partnership with the US. India wanted to gain access to US military technology, and the US was intent on extending containment of China in Asia. Democracy has nothing to do with the two countries' increasing closeness.
Is Vladimir Putin supremely confident, or is he worried about the war in Ukraine? Western intelligence seems of two minds about Putin's thinking, on one hand dismissing his bluster but also believing he will only stop when defeated. In essence, Putin may think that so long as Ukraine cannot win, Russia cannot lose; and Biden may believe that so long as Ukraine cannot lose, Russia cannot win. This wide gap promises a war without end.
Taiwan is the central issue obstructing normal US-China relations. Despite US professions of support for the "One China" principle, Beijing sees US violations of that principle. In this episode, the focus is on remarks by a senior Chinese America watcher, Prof. Jia Qingguo. Though a longtime supporter of US-China engagement, Jia reports on mounting Chinese concern about US policy on Taiwan and changing Chinese perspectives on nuclear weapons as well. Jia's comments bode ill for the immediate future.
Assumptions in the US and elsewhere about "no limits" to Chinese aid to Russia in the Ukraine war have long been unfounded. Chinese self-interest, not US threats or Russian desires, have guided China's war policies. But China's stance could change, most likely if the US continues to upgrade its political and military support of Taiwan.
In this episode I pause to take stock of the Ukraine war: what we know and don't know. Most importantly, we don't know what it will take to bring this war to a close, or at least to a cease-fire. We know about about the costs of the war for both sides, but not the tipping point at which interest in negotiations will emerge. Are we headed to a stalemate or an at least partial Ukraine success in its upcoming counteroffensive? In the end, war weariness may be the crucial factor in stopping the fighting.
US officials complain that they are having a hard time making contact with their Chinese counterparts. That is clearly the consequence of the falling out over the Chinese balloon incident. A recent speech by treasury secretary Janet Yellen affirmed US interest in a "constructive relationship," but the speech fell short in reassurances to China about economic decoupling. US ambassador to China Nicholas Burns made more positive statements about resuming dialogue, and was rewarded with a meeting in Beijing with China's foreign minister. But Burns will have a hard time persuading Congress members of the value of consistent, non-hostile communications with China.
The civil war within the military in Sudan is a betrayal of its people's hope for a peaceful democratic transition after 30 years of murderous rule by Omar al-Bashir. At this time, the best the two competing generals have accomplished is brief cease-fires. Prospects for a power-sharing arrangements look bleak, and for democratic rule even bleaker.
The US government is seeking either to ban or force the sale of the popular Chinese-owned TikTok app. But the case against TikTok neglects two matters: the US government's own spying on citizens under cover of law, and the questionable political motives that seem to dictate the specific effort to kill TikTok. A middle-ground solution is available--allowing TikTok to continue operating but ensuring that its database resides in the US--but the Biden administration has lost interest in it.
The visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Beijing couldn't have gone better from China's point of view, since he didn't raise a fuss about human rights, a peace plan for Ukraine, or Taiwan. Xi Jinping gave Macron nothing of political value. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied Macron, was far more principled, but her views probably counted for less than Macron's.
The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on global warming reinforces the scientific consensus that by 2030 humanity must either cut greenhouse gas emissions in half or face climate catastrophes that will worsen living conditions for everyone. “The climate time bomb is ticking,” says the UN secretary-general. In this 75th episode, I review the IPCC report, finding little reason for optimism even in cases of climate adaptation and mitigation.
Haviv Gur, Senior Analyst with the Times of Israel, comment on the current impasse over the Netanyahu coalition's judicial reform legislation. He points to possible points of compromise but also to the political obstacles to actually achieving one. Gur also assesses the Israeli military's situation as many reservists have stepped away from their duty in protest of the far right's proposals. Finally, Gur discusses President Biden's intervention in Israeli politics. (Unfortunately, an electrical outage at Gur's home cut short the conversation. My apologies to listeners.)
Prof. Chung-in Moon of Yonsei University in Seoul is a leading authority on Korea and East Asia security issues. In this 73d Podserve episode, he evaluates North Korea's latest round of missile tests, comments on South Korean interest in having its own nuclear weapons, and offers steps to negotiate and normalize relations with the North. Prof. Moon also notes Trump's missed opportunity in 2019 to strike a deal with Kim Jong Un.
Israel's democracy is imperiled by far-right legislation that would drastically curtail the independence of the court system, including the Supreme Court. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition would be given extraordinary power akin to that of an authoritarian regime. Mass protests have been accompanied by warnings from intelligence and military officials, reservists, and business leaders. But so far, Netanyahu has refused to back down, fearing loss of the extremists' support.
Political economy Professor Ho-fung Hung, author of City on the Edge: Hong Kong Under Chinese Rule, talks about the city's history of resistance since ancient times, the benchmarks of resistance in the 1970s and 1980s, and China's crackdown in 2020. He points to Beijing's broken promises to Hong Kong on universal suffrage and autonomy, just as it did to Tibet in the 1950s. Prof. Hung reflects on the reasons for his long-term optimism about Hong Kong's future, and on what self-determination for Hong Kong might mean.
In this interview on KBOO.fm, Portland, Oregon, I explore some of the key issues raised in my new book, Engaging China: Rebuilding Sino-American Relations (Rowman & Littlefield). These include the evolution of US-China tensions from the Obama administration to the present, how an engagement strategy might work, the impact of the China Initiative on US-China exchanges, and an overall critical evaluation of the Biden administration's China policy.
The Chinese high-altitude balloon incident has needlessly raised US hackles. It was not a security threat, and it could have been dealt with diplomatically, by being put on Secretary of State Blinken's agenda when he made his trip to Beijing. Postponement of that trip only feeds the anti-China frenzy in Washington.
Prof. Katz discusses Russia's relations with Iran, Syria, Israel and other countries; points out how Russia has effectively handled its Middle East ties in the midst of war in Ukraine; and underscores the balancing act of traditional US partners in the region as they maintain ties with Moscow while identifying with some of Washington's priorities.
Japan now has a new, more assertive national security strategy, adopted in response to perceived threats from China and North Korea. The strategy supports the Biden administration's security coalition building in Asia to counter China, but it will surely worsen Japan-China relations and further increase tensions in the region.
In the US, “national security” is all about identifying threats. Under President Biden, China is considered an all-encompassing strategic threat, far more serious than Russia. In this 66th episode of Podserve, I critically assesses the 2022 Biden-Harris national security strategy paper's threat analysis, pointing out that it fails to account for how deeply the US is involved in Ukraine's war with Russia. But the analysis does fit with a majority in Congress that prefers containing China.
COP27 has come and gone, with very little progress on reversing climate change. Promises were made of aid to developing countries, but the real victory belongs to the fossil fuel, food, and agriculture industries that lobbied to weaken government commitments to fight climate change. Optimists nevertheless believe that technological advances in renewable energy will save us, but there are reasons for doubt.
The first in-person Biden-Xi summit was reasonably successful in that each president pledged to avoid war and seek common ground on issues such as climate change. But mutual understanding of their differences on national security is still lacking, jeopardizing the goodwill that emerged from Bali. China sees the US as interfering in its internal affairs, Taiwan first and foremost, in order to weaken communist party rule, whereas the US sees China as a strategic threat, intending to undermine US global predominance.
US military ties to Saudi Arabia have compromised US policy on human rights, energy, and the war in Yemen. The Saudi leader has leveraged OPEC oil production to secure US arms and defense of the kingdom while avoiding the policy reevaluation promised by Biden. It is time to sever military ties.
Two issues now dominate discussion of the Ukraine war: How to deter Russia from using a nuclear weapon, and whether there is an off-ramp for Putin that would bring the war to an end. I find that most analysts, and apparently the US government, are more hopeful than confident about how to respond to either problem. There is no lack of ideas about responding to a "limited" nuclear use by Russia, but when it comes to an off-ramp, the alternatives seem to be either victory by one side or a cease-fire and negotiations that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to undertake.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has passed a bipartisan bill, the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, that will dramatically increase US military and political support of Taiwan. If approved by the full Senate, the TPA will actually make Taiwan less secure and further heighten US-China tensions. Beijing is likely to consider that the TPA moves US policy another step closer to supporting Taiwan's independence, its red line.
Ukraine's stunningly successful counteroffensive has led to unwarranted optimism that the end of the war may be in sight. But Vladimir Putin still has options even in the face of dissent at home and abroad. This episode discusses war-ending possibilities, the most likely of which is the exhaustion of one side and an eventual leadership change in Russia that leads to withdrawal from Ukraine territory.
This episode poses the question: How might Middle East affairs be different if US-Iran relations were normalized, starting with agreement to revitalize the 2015 nuclear deal? If the deal is renewed, opportunities may exist to confront difficult regional issues such as nuclear weapons acquisition, Yemen's civil war, and Israel-Iran hostility. Some analysts believe the ayatollah needs an American enemy, but he agreed to the deal in 2015--and the new deal is just as advantageous for the US as the previous one.
The October presidential election in Brazil may well determine the fate of the Amazon's forests, “the lungs of the earth.” Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president who protected the Amazon, faces off against the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, whose right-wing government favors corporate interests that have dramatically increased deforestation and fires. Lula is favored to win, but should Bolsonaro win or stage a coup, the Amazon will be at a tipping point.
India is often billed as the world's largest democracy, but the reality is quite different. The Modi government's Hindi nationalism is a threat to India's 200 million Muslims and violates India's constitution. Modi's social and economic programs have failed farmers, women, and children. "Electoral autocracy" or "illiberal democracy" are better descriptors of the Moda regime.
The European Union faces two challenges in its great game with Putin over Russia's natural gas and oil exports: maintaining unity as it reduces dependence on Russia, and moving more swiftly to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions.
This episode critically examines House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's decision to visit Taiwan at the height of US-China tensions. She said she wanted to help protect Taiwan's democracy from a Chinese threat, but her trip actually increased China's pressure on Taiwan and undermined US-China efforts to stabilize relations.
President Biden's first Middle East trip was anything but a resounding success. What he mainly accomplished was to bring traditional US policy back to where it had been before Trump, including putting strategic and economic interests ahead of human rights in relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Water is drying up everywhere; oceans and rivers are becoming more polluted and poisoned; watersheds are being drained; quality drinking water is getting harder to come by. This dimension of the global environmental crisis calls out for immediate remedy. In this episode, I outline the water crisis abroad and at home, and mention some local-level attempts to combat it.
China's surveillance state relies on a host of intrusive technologies to insure what it calls social stability. The security forces leave no one above suspicion. Similar data collection technologies are already in wide use here, and present a threat to American women in the post-Roe v. Wade era.
Prof. Marantz discusses Vladimir Putin's worldview and ambitions, the forces that may embolden and constrain him, prospects for war termination, and Putin's perceptions of current US/NATO actions.
European unity is being tested in the Ukraine war on three issues: energy, food, and a way forward to ending the war. Russia's cuts in energy exports to Europe, its blockade of Ukraine grain shipments, and its evident playing for time to achieve its expansive security ambitions all tend to exacerbate tensions within the alliance. I examine Europe's responses to these issues in this episode.
China's mass internment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang Province amounts to a crime on par with genocide. The UN's high commissioner for human rights, Michelle Bachelet, recently traveled to China to take stock. But the trip was a disaster for the UN and a propaganda coup for Beijing. It was a trip that should never have been made, and it cost Bachelet her job.
President Biden has referred to the US as an “arsenal of democracy,” symbolized by military aid to Ukraine. The US indeed is far and away the world leader in military spending and arms exports. It also leads, not coincidentally, in domestic arms sales and gun violence. Thus, the US is an arsenal, but not of democracy. This episode cites figures from the global arms business and its politics in the US to suggest just how out of control both are.
This episode examines President Biden's controversial comment that the US will “defend Taiwan.” Though Biden has departed from the traditional “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan, he is not out of step with longstanding US military support of Taiwan. More disturbing is the intensifying US-China competition all over Asia, which holds the danger of a violent confrontation.
The Omicron variant has caught up to North Korea, causing a potential human catastrophe in a country that not only lacks the resources to fight the pandemic, but is also making the wrong investments for security—in missiles and nuclear weapons. In this episode I suggest that the US and South Korea should persist in their offers of vaccine help to the North for both humanitarian and political reasons.
In this episode I point to the kinds of achievable steps countries could take to avoid global calamity. Pressure tactics on governments and fossil fuel companies seem to have limited effectiveness. One of the more hopeful signs is the rapid shift to solar and wind power, with resulting lower costs. But clearly, it's now or never if the goal is keeping global warming at 1.5℃ to 2.0.
China's initial success at dealing with the COVID pandemic has been replaced by a failing response to the Omicron variant. In this episode, Professor Gurtov examines the failure and its social and political consequences. Popular anger at the new round of lockdowns comes at a bad time for Xi Jinping.
This 43d episode of “The Global Citizen” considers how different outcomes in Ukraine will affect Europe's security order. Three conclusions seem clear: Regardless of the ending, the security situation will be dangerous, costly, and divided much as Europe was during the Cold War. Central and East Asia are likely to face similarly difficult times.
War crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide are all too common in our time. Russia's forces in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin personally, are being accused of all these crimes of war. Many obstacles stand in the way of prosecution and punishment, but international law does have value beyond naming and shaming.
I examine the push by the major oil companies for increased domestic production and a halt to Biden's clean energy plans. Big Oil is taking full advantage of the Ukraine war in profits and drilling. Biden is putting gas-war politics ahead of climate change security.
How will the war in Ukraine end? In this 40th Podserve episode, I explore what a Ukraine-Russia agreement might entail and the obstacles that stand in the way. But there is no certainty that the war will end in an agreement, since neither country may be willing to make the necessary concessions.
Facing a catastrophic war in Ukraine and Russian pressure to provide military and economic aid, China continues to sit on the fence, at least publicly. Doing so has a cost: the undermining of China's claim to be a “responsible great power.” In this episode, I explore China's leadership failure.
I list seven possible disaster scenarios in Ukraine that will face the US and NATO with exceptionally difficult decisions about how, or whether, to respond. Russia's use of a weapon of mass destruction, obliteration of Kyiv, and show trials for Ukraine's leaders are among the possibilities. For the West, there are no easy answers.
In the midst of Russian aggression there are three silver linings: Ukraine's courageous resistance, NATO's unity, and awareness of Putin's true face. But let's not back him into a corner.
Vladimir Putin has put Russia at war with Europe, the United States, and the rest of the democratic world. His reckless adventurism seems designed to reimpose a Soviet-era sphere of influence. In this this 36th Podserve episode, I argue that resisting Russia must be bold but undertaken with great care because of the danger inherent in a confrontation with a nuclear-weapon state.
The Ukraine crisis is at a critical juncture, with very little movement toward a diplomatic resolution. In this episode, I propose a shift from seeking a major NATO-Russia agreement on European security to using CBMs—confidence building measures—meaning small steps to ease tensions and prevent miscalculations. CBMs seem far more likely than a grand bargain to gain agreement from all sides.
With Vladimir Putin in Beijing right now, the Biden administration reportedly is worried that China's close ties with Russia will further impede prospects for a negotiated resolution of the crisis. But China's interests and Russia's don't always intersect. Theirs is a marriage of convenience, not an alliance.
When Joe Biden first announced a Summit for Democracy shortly after taking office,it was a bad idea. Now that the Senate has rejected the Democrats' voting rights bill, we can see that the Summit was an even worse idea. The Summit attracted quite a few undemocratic countries, but the US, ranked 83 by Freedom House, hardly qualifies as an exemplar of democracy. Trumpism's continuing influence must be Biden's target; when, or if, he hits it, a summit may be worth having.
China has systematically crushed popular protests in Hong Kong along with civil society, free elections, and the independent media. Beijing's promise of 50 years of autonomy for Hong Kong is gone, and in its place are China loyalists and governing bodies that lack legitimacy. Sanctions and shaming are about all the US and other concerned governments have to influence China's policies.
Prof. Dali Yang at the University of Chicago is a leading analyst of Chinese politics. He has written extensively on the handling of the COVID pandemic in China and the US. In this interview he comments on past US-China public health cooperation, the impact of the trade war and COVID on relations, and prospects for a resumption of collaboration.
Cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo is the object of intense US-China competition, with the global electric car market the prize for the winning countries. China is far ahead of the US, but its companies face problems that cooperation with the US might alleviate.
The current crisis over Ukraine reflects Vladimir Putin's fear of democracy as much as fear of NATO enlargement. Whether or not Russia's military buildup is the prelude to an attack on Ukraine, a new diplomatic initiative is essential. It will have to take not only Russia's but also Ukraine's security concerns into account.
In this interview on December 6, 2021, Prof. Braun at the University of Toronto assesses the state of Russia's society and economy, Putin's world view, and Russian interests in Ukraine. He distinguishes the Kremlin's apparent successes at presenting strength abroad from its actual weaknesses at home. Putin's large-scale deployments to Ukraine may be an effort to divert attention from those weaknesses. But however much Putin fears Ukraine as a potential democracy, he is not reckless, and an actual invasion of Ukraine seems unlikely at the moment. A diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis, however, seems equally unlikely.
Yemen's civil war has resulted in the world's worst humanitarian crisis, mainly caused by Saudi Arabia's intervention. US military support of the Saudis continues despite promises by President Biden to end it. In this episode I examine the human impact of Saudi Arabia's bombing and blockade in Yemen and argue that US military aid to Saudi Arabia should immediately end.
In the midst of all the wrangling between the US and China about human rights, trade, Taiwan, and a host of other issues, a central concern both countries share is how to manage the relationship. What is the most effective structure for ensuring that conflict over issues doesn't spill over into actual conflict? The Biden-Xi virtual summit did not provide an answer, but did help reduce tensions. A US strategy of engagement with China should be the next step, and Chinese commentaries suggest it would be welcome.
The defeat of the Netanyahu government has hardly changed Israeli policies on Palestine and the Palestinians. This episode particularly notes the expansion of Israeli settlements and the designation of six Palestinian human rights groups as terrorist organizations. Also discussed is the failure of the Arab states to come to the support of the Palestinians and a two-state solution. The Biden administration has been mildly critical of Israeli policy but has not used its leverage to push for change.
Keith Luse, Executive Director of the National Committee on North Korea, examines recent developments in North Korean society, its national defense priorities, and relations with the US. He dissects controversial issues such as use of sanctions, the North Korean threat to the US, and the role of domestic politics in both the North and the US in shaping the leadership's views in both countries.
As COP26 opens in Scotland, the latest US National Intelligence Estimate on climate change reveals numerous international security challenges that will undermine chances of reaching the 2015 Paris Agreement goals. At bottom, national self-interest is highly likely, as usual, to have priority over the global community interest.
In this episode I return to the topic of Pentagon economics and the military-industrial complex. Wartime or peacetime, US military spending spirals upward, to the benefit of the weapons makers and pro-defense Congress members. It's a gravy train, and beneficial to all the parties. President Eisenhower's famous comment that excessive military spending is "a theft" from social programs is especially pertinent today.
North Korea's latest round of short- and long-range missile tests come at the same time that South Korea is also testing missiles and North and South Korean leaders are exchanging messages about peace talks. What to make of these seemingly contradictory developments? I argue for putting emphasis on prospects for diplomacy between North and South, and between North Korea and the US. The Biden administration should return to the 2005 agreement on "action for action," which in particular means gradually reducing sanctions on the North in exchange for a moratorium on missile testing.
Donald Trump's ongoing efforts to subvert the Constitution and democratic institutions go beyond ordinary political opposition. He is clearly intent on reinventing America as an authoritarian system in which the former Republican Party pledges loyalty to him. Undermining the right to vote and the sanctity of elections is just the first step. He is supporting followers who believe civil war and other violent acts are perfectly legitimate ways to reinstall him in the White House. I call Trump for what he is: a traitor.
As part of President Biden's disengagement policy toward China, he is continuing a justice department "China Initiative" that aims to prosecute Chinese and US citizens allegedly involved in economic espionage. The main effect of this dragnet is to limit educational and scientific exchanges with China, which once had strong bipartisan support. Approximately 370,000 students and scholars from China are in the US, nearly a third engaged in STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) research. But now, as relations with China have deteriorated, Chinese graduate students and researchers, and Chinese American scientists, are being viewed with suspicion and even hostility. The China Initiative is doing real long-term harm to the US economy, its scientific research, and the US reputation for openness to international collaboration.
Richard Tanter, Senior Research Associate at the Nautilus Institute, and a leading Australian expert on nuclear weapons, discusses the TPNW, now signed by over 80 countries. He assesses the breakthrough character of the treaty and its legal, political, and ethical implications at a time when nuclear war is again a pressing international issue. Interviewed Sept. 1, 2021. A video of the interview is available at https://melgurtov.com.
Along the road of war in Afghanistan, the US missed an opportunity to negotiate with the Taliban in 2001 and negotiated Afghanistan away in 2020. This episode explores both events and what they tell us about the American experience in that country.
In this interview on August 26, 2021, I discuss the Afghanistan war and the return of Taliban rule with Benon Sevan, a longtime senior official with the UN and former personal representative of the secretary-general from 1988 to 1991. Mr. Sevan comments on the futility of nation building in Afghanistan, the American misadventure, and the prospects for international cooperation in working with the Taliban, among other issues.
In this episode I dispute the criticism that defeat in Afghanistan will constrain US military power. US bases overseas and other elements of power projection will not be affected, nor will US crediblity with allies suffer. As happened after the Vietnam War, doubts at home and abroad about US power will dissipate. Unfortunately, the most important lessons to be learned from Afghanistan, about the need for military restraint and the importance of introspection about American hubris, seem likely not to be learned.
The terrible denouement of the Afghan War was actually widely anticipated by military and civilian officials years earlier. The reasons, which boil down to American hubris and exceptionalism, are strikingly similar to those that led to defeat in Vietnam. As an author of the Pentagon Papers, I examine US policymaking with comparisons to what the Afghanistan Papers have uncovered. A fuller version of this podcast, with sources and charts, can be found on my blog site, https://melgurtov.com, Post #308.
Pegasus spyware, developed by an Israeli company, has penetrated the smart phones of thousands of activists, journalists, and political leaders. Some 50,000 names have so far been uncovered, including current government officials around the world. The Pegasus case shows that neither the producers nor the users of surveillance technology can be trusted to prevent criminal abuses.
Episode 12 examines influence peddling in Washington: the lobbying firms and the people who pay huge sums for access to policy makers. It's a pernicious business that undermines democratic policy making. I look at three areas of lobbying: social media, voting rights, and foreign policy. The written version of this podcast, with sources, can be found at Mel's blog at melgurtov.com.
This is an interview July 23 with Prof. James N. Green, the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Professor of Latin American History at Brown University. He's an expert on Brazil where, under the rightwing government of Jair Bolsonaro, over a half million people have died from the pandemic, democracy has been set back, and the Amazon rainforest and its indigenous people have suffered immensely.
Jim Green has written and co-edited 11 books on Brazil and Latin America in English and six in Portuguese. He is the National Co-coordinator of the U.S. Network for Democracy in Brazil, a decentralized, democratic, and non-partisan network of Brazilian and U.S. friends of Brazil living in the United States that mobilizes public opinion against the policies of the Bolsonaro government.
Foreign meddling in Haiti's latest political crisis is the last thing the Haitian people need. Nor is immediate elections for a new president a useful answer to a population with a multitude of human security problems. There are civil society groups with a grassroots agenda that should be consulted and relied upon to address Haitians' real needs while sidelining self-interested politicians.
This 9th podcast critically examines presidential authority to use force, an authority that has consistently been granted by Congress. Recent Authorizations to Use Military Force (AUMF) have provided blank checks for warfare, whereas the 1993 War Powers Bill has been systematically ignored or slighted. Thus both Congress and presidents are responsible for an abuse of power, and only a redefinition of US national security, with emphasis on diplomacy over use of force, can remedy the situation.
I examine the new global threat posed by "modernization" of nuclear weapons arsenals in the US, Russia, and China. What the major nuclear-weapon states should be doing is further reducing nuclear weapons and delivery systems, and signing the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Other commentaries on nuclear-weapon issues can be found at Mel's blog at melgurtov.com.
The Biden administration is on the verge of delivering on the promise to restore the nuclear deal with Iran. To clinch the deal, however, he will have to overcome resistance not only from Republicans but also from Israel and Saudi Arabia. Time is of the essence because of Iran's election of a hard-line president. Most important is that Biden follow through on removing sanctions on Iran and testing its continued compliance with the nuclear deal.
In this sixth Podserve episode of Global Citizen, Dr. Gurtov critiques the Pentagon's untouchable, always rising budget. Money desperately needed for the economy and society is going to redundant strategic weapons that have little relationship to threats to national security such as climate change and pandemics. Gurtov identifies 8 points every administration uses in its narrative justifying excessive military spending.
This episode draws attention to the very real threat to democracy posed by the far-right Republican leadership. Voting rights, so central to democratic governance, are in grave danger in much of the country. I argue for Pres. Biden doing whatever it takes to pass voting rights legislation. Failure to do so would not only undermine US foreign policy priorities; it could well mean democracy's demise in short order.
Taiwan has returned as a central issue in contention between the US and China. Biden is continuing the Trump policy of upgrading relations with Taiwan, while China is sometimes encroaching on Taiwan's air and naval space. The longstanding US policy of "strategic ambiguity" over Taiwan is dangerously eroding. Recalling a previous crisis in the Taiwan Strait in 1958 that nearly led to US use of nuclear weapons, this podcast urges increase US-China contact to avoid what happened then: a misreading by both sides of the other's intentions.
Pres. Biden's China policy tilts toward a hard line rather than an effort to distance itself from the previous administration's trade war and China-bashing. Emphasizing human rights issues is fine, but upgrading relations with Taiwan and elevating the economic and technological competiton with China to an ideological struggle are recipes for a new Cold War. US policy should test China on issues of mutual benefit such as climate change, public health, and reduction of military tension.
This episode follows up on the previous analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian war, adddressing the prospects for a transformation of the parties' relations. Unfortunately, with both sides claiming victory and Prime Minister Netanyahu firmly in control, those prospects are very dim. US influence is, if anything, less now than before the war, helping ensure that Israeli policies will not change.
As a cease-fire begins in Israel, the US must finally and resolutely determine upon a new course in relations with the right-wing Israeli government and with the Palestinians. There can be no peace without justice, and justice requires a US focus on self-defense for the Palestinian people, meaning economic development and separate statehood, as much as for Israelis. But Pres. Biden must first break the longstanding pattern of favoring israel and ignoring Palestinian demands.