Global Exchanges: Recent Episodes
BMO Capital Markets
BMO’s FX Strategists, Greg Anderson and Stephen Gallo, offer perspectives from strategy, sales and trading on the foreign exchange market, related financial markets, and the global economy.
To view show transcripts, please visit http://bmocm.com/GlobalExchanges.
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In this week's episode, we home in on the 1M horizon, which now brings us to the end of calendar year 2022. We share our thoughts on the latest developments in RMB, GBP, USD, and CAD.
In this week's episode, we discuss so-called “turn pressures” that are manifest in the movement of implied yields embedded in FX forward points of various different currencies. This discussion features a special guest: BMO FX forwards trader James Topham.
In this week's episode, we discuss the latest movements in the broad US dollar with particular focus on the euro, British pound, Chinese renminbi, and Japanese yen.
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments related to the yen, the renminbi, the euro, and the Canadian dollar.
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments related to the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Chinese Renminbi.
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments in the US dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, and some of the G10 commodity currencies. In particular, we analyze whether the FX market is 'breaking'.
In this week's episode, we discuss the key factors facing central banks with meetings this week along with potential outcomes in terms of policy and FX responses. We go through the situations facing the Fed, BOJ, BOE, and PBOC.
In this week's episode, we discuss potential terminal rates for this cycle for G10 central banks and how they may differ from long-run equilibrium rates and what they may mean for foreign exchange. We also explore how the euro might react to a sudden peace in the Ukraine War.
In this week's episode, we discuss recent policy signals from various central banks and associated movements in FX markets.
In this week's episode, we discuss recent developments in the FX market and a few key upcoming events.
In this week's episode, we discuss an analogy of the situation facing the Fed Chair Powell and other central bankers, along with FX market implications.
In this week's episode, we discuss some of the key issues for the FX market during the dog days of summer, including the persistence of above-average volatility, the softening of oil prices, and the modest relief rally in the euro.
In this week's episode, we discuss the reasons why the Mexican peso and Chinese renminbi have diverged so sharply in 2022. We give our thoughts on how long, and to what extent, this divergence can continue. We throw this out as one of our favorite summer trades--noting that it is a trade that should benefit in the event that oil continues to move higher.
In this week’s episode, we discuss recent signs of distress in financial markets related to the rising US dollar, rising oil prices, and uncertainty over central bank responses to these issues.
In this week's episode, we discuss the pullback in the US dollar over the past two weeks and go through the macro stories behind it before looking at a few key exchange rates.
In this episode, special guest Jennifer Lee from BMO’s economics team joins Greg Anderson to discuss the slowdown in the global economy and the surge in global inflation.
In this episode, we discuss the ongoing USD rally, ADXY weakness, and their potential feedback effects on the Fed.
In this episode, we discuss noteworthy FX moves over the past week and what they may mean going forward, with particular emphasis on the Chinese renminbi and Japanese yen.
In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in the yen and euro and offer a bit of loose speculation ahead of this week's G7 and G20 meetings along the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.
In this episode, we discuss recent developments in the valuations of the Japanese yen, Korean won, Canadian dollar, and euro.
In this episode, we discuss the shocking weakness exhibited by the yen over the past few days as manifest by the move in USDJPY above 125. We also discuss the influences that have led to the pop above 1.11 in EURUSD.
In this episode, we discuss the surprising evolution of exchange rates over the past week, with particular focus on the strange concoction of influences that has led the EURJPY exchange rate to rise by 3%.
In this episode, we discuss the biggest FX moves over the past few days, which are in USDJPY, USDRMB and correlated Asian currencies.
In this week's episode, we take a walk through the FX landscape as a result of the events in Ukraine. The point of our survey is to identify currency pairs that have either moved too much as a result of those events or that haven't moved enough given the shifts in related financial prices and underlying economic fundamentals.
In this week's episode, Stephen Gallo is joined by BMO's Colin Hamilton, for an in-depth discussion of China's role as a global macro counterweight to numerous phenomena which have persisted in the global economy — but externally to China. This 2-year long counterweight dynamic doesn't seem to be in its end stages yet, so this week's episode covers the implications for the foreign exchange markets and specific commodity prices.
For this week's episode, Greg Anderson is joined by special guest Frank White, an EM FX Trader. Greg and Frank preview elections later this year in two countries: Brazil and the Philippines.
In this week's episode, we discuss the surprising hawkish evolution we saw from the ECB last week and the potential impacts on the Euro and broader FX markets.
In this week's episode, we discuss the reasons that financial markets have quickly shifted to a high-volatility regime before taking a stab at why the FX market isn’t (yet) showing the same uptick in realized and implied volatility.
In this week's episode, we discuss the generalized rise in commodity prices thus far in 2022, and contrast it to the move in G10 commodity currencies. We go through potential reasons for why commodity currencies haven't rallied alongside commodity prices.
In this week's episode, we discuss the evolution of major exchange rates over the first few trading sessions of 2022 and the background issues underneath them.
In this week's episode, we are joined by James Topham to discuss the phenomenon frequently referred to as "turn pressures" in the FX forwards market.
In this week's episode, we discuss the recent sharp moves in EURUSD, USDYEN, and a few other exchange rates.
In this week’s episode, we discuss the rally above 1.27 and the evolution of the key fundamental drivers of this exchange rate.
In this week's episode, we discuss two noteworthy recent momentum reversals in the FX market.
In this week's episode, we discuss the recent moves in the euro and the Chinese renminbi that have combined to push the Euro-China cross down to 7.40.
In this week's episode, we talk about the 1% decline in broad US Dollar indices over the past week, the potential causes for this reversal in momentum, and what this might mean for the outlook for the remainder of 2021.
In this week's episode, we talk about the meteoric rise in natural gas prices in Europe, and what that should mean for the Euro.
In this week’s episode, we discuss the list of issues that seem to be driving FX this week and may continue to do so for the rest of 2021. We tackle 5 of the most important macro and political developments.
In this week's episode, we are joined by Art Woo to discuss the Evergrande situation and what it might mean for China's economy, Chinese financial markets, and global FX.
In this week’s episode we discuss the potential FX market implications of two big elections coming up in September: the German four-yearly federal election and the snap Canadian federal election.
In this week's episode, we look back at the moment fifty years ago this week when the Bretton Woods System began to crumble because the US suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. We discuss key lessons learned over the past fifty years of floating exchange rates with an eye forward to what those lessons might teach us about the future.
In this week's episode, we discuss the price action in foreign exchange over the last few weeks along with recent central bank signals. We also discuss a couple of the key monetary policy events upcoming later in August.
In this week’s episode, we discuss the price action in foreign exchange over the last month, along with associated fundamental developments.
In this week’s episode, we discuss today’s RBA policy announcement and what the market is pricing in for the RBNZ. We contrast those currencies to a few ADXY currencies.
On today's episode, we discuss the first half of 2021's most shocking financial price move and its implications for FX.
In this episode, we explore the FX seasonality known as the month-end effect, which is basically the spike in FX volume that occurs on the last business day of the month. We are joined by FX sales specialists Alice Bentley and Kate Stothers.
In this week's episode, Greg Anderson and Stephen Gallo talk about the long list of central bank policy meetings in June and what they may mean for FX markets over the summer.
In this episode, we discuss the break in USDCNH below 6.40, along with its causes and implications.
In this episode, we discuss the continued rally in global commodity prices, the associated sharp uptick in inflation numbers in some countries and the renewed downdrift in the US dollar.
In this episode, we discuss this week's move below 1.24 in USDCAD and some of its implications for Corporate Canada. We are joined by Brad Schruder, an FX Sales Specialist who works with Canadian corporations of various sizes across many industries.
In this episode, we discuss the surprising rally in the EURUSD exchange through 1.20 and associated moves in other pairs.
In this episode, we discuss the fading themes from Q1 and the lack of a clear dominant theme for Q2.
In this episode, we discuss the extraordinary decline we’ve seen in the Japanese yen in the first three months of 2021 and the flows behind it.
In this episode, we discuss two interesting developments in emerging economies around the world. The first is capital inflows and associated reserve accumulation. The second is how the rise in global oil prices has impacted the inflation and monetary policy outlooks.
In this episode we interview BMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton. Topics discussed include the causes of this year’s spike in base metals prices and the market implications of China’s new 5-year economic plan.
In this episode we discuss the recent move down to 1.50 in the EURCAD exchange rate and the fundamental drivers that we think are behind it. We also discuss this week’s ECB and BoC policy meetings. We give our outlook for the two central banks’ policy paths through the end of the year along with our outlook for EURCAD.
In this week’s episode, we discuss background issues and pertinent details regarding this week’s virtual meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers. We give our latest views on the US dollar, euro, Canadian dollar and Chinese renminbi.