Vote 2020: Recent Episodes
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Newstalk ZB and NZHerald.co.nz bring you comprehensive coverage of Vote 2020 - the policies, the issues, the debates, the personalities, and the results of New Zealand's general election.
A constitutional law expert suggests changing rules on enrolling to vote could benefit the current Government.
A report by the Auditor-General's found pressures on systems led to mistakes in the vote count, such as a rushed final check of the official results.
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has proposed stopping people enrolling to vote on election day to slim down numbers of special votes.
Otago University's Andrew Geddis says people showing up that way tend to vote left.
"The special votes every election deliver more seats to the left parties than the right. So if you end election day enrolments, you'll help the right - which is why Paul Goldsmith is so keen to do it."
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Big numbers of special votes and enrolments took a toll on vote counters in last year's election.
A report on the count by the Auditor-General has found the final check of the official result was done in a few hours, on the day it was announced.
The rushed assessment failed to identify multiple errors.
It normally takes two days.
Chief Electoral Officer Karl Le Quesne says they're working at ways to better support staff in future.
"We need to look at how we can use technology to identify potential errors - there might be some more staff needed. But we need check more robustly that the checks have been carried out as well."
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It’s been a big week in politics, as a host of Labour's policies have been tipped on the scrap heap as the new coalition Government starts passing laws at pace.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis joins the Weekend Collective to share who her politician of the year is, as well as what we can expect from the mini-budget.
Plus, Jason Walls joins the show to discuss the key moments from the year that's been in politics.
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This week on the Sunday Panel, Coast day host and Victoria University Senior Law Lecturer and columnist Morgan Godfery joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
We started the year with Jacinda Ardern resigning and ended it with a completely different Government - how are we feeling about 2023 as a year? And how are we feeling heading into 2024? Are we in a good place as a country?
Who's our politician of the year? The Herald's Claire Trevett named Winston Peters- do we agree? Did he steal the limelight from Luxon?
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On our first Sunday back at the beginning of this year, the Labour Government confirmed who our new Prime Minister would be.
So much has happened since then.
When Chris Hipkins took on the role, it felt like he went straight into election mode, aware he had only 9 months to convince us he had the vision, leadership and relatability for the job, and that he understood what New Zealanders needed and wanted.
Other political parties soon followed, and while the election campaign was officially only 5 weeks long the year felt like one long audition for the role of Prime Minister and Government.
And now, in our last show, the country ends the year in a completely different place – a place of revelations and repeals which are setting a sombre tone for 2024.
The reveals this week were gobsmackingly bad for the opposition. First there was the Auditor General’s report that stated two of Labour’s spending programmes – the $12b New Zealand Upgrade Programme (NZUP) and the $3b Shovel-Ready Programme (SRP) that were announced in 2020 to keep the economy going during the pandemic – were poorly run, with little transparency and value for money.
Then Nicola Willis pulled the plug on much needed new Interislander Ferries project in response to a massive budget blow out, whose blame she lay at the feet of the previous Finance Minister.
A day later, it was confirmed the economy has been in a per capita recession for much of the past year. And the good news doesn’t stop there.
This week will bring more revelations as the Government opens their books for the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update. I’m not sure the opposition will want to turn up for this.
And if you want to know how all this news will affect us in 2024, you only have to look at the list of what is being repealed and cut to stop spending money – and take note of Nicola Willis’ mini mini-budget on Wednesday. It will give us a taste of what to expect in the Government’s May 2024 budget.
If I was going to describe 2023, I’d say it was the year when the wheels fell off in slow motion. 2024 is lining up to be the year when the brakes go on. It’s going to take a bit to slow and stop our fiscal freefall and it’s not going to be much fun. It seldom is when the party ends.
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About now most of us are on the countdown. The countdown to Santa Claus’ brief visit and the end of the year. The countdown to some time off, a chance to stop and reset. Or perhaps it’s the countdown to returning home to spend quality time with family. It may just be the countdown to the end of Christmas music for another year.
You get the picture.
But while many of us are ready to slow things down, I enjoyed seeing politicians ramping up in Parliament this week and doing what they do; introducing themselves, dropping insults and throwing dirt and getting on with the policy promises laid out during the election campaign.
And gee, it was an action-packed week.
There were justifications and an embarrassing mistake over the dumping of anti-smoking legislation. Te Pati Māori mobilised Māori to take to the streets for National Māori Action Day protesting the coalitions polices.
There were leaks about the Government’s plan for Fair Pay Agreements and Regulatory Impact Analyses - which indicated some legislation may not get the usual level of regulatory scrutiny.
Then there was the drama and theatrics of swearing in MPs, with one new MP’s maiden speech earning a standing ovation from all corners of the house. The star of the week, National MP James Meager, joins us shortly.
We also had impassioned speeches about the Israel Palestine conflict, barbs traded about the financial state of the books left by the previous Government, and real concerns about the blow out in costs for infrastructure projects.
All this in one short week.
The Government is moving fast. There’s a lot happening and while we’re all very keen to clock out the reality of what Kiwis voted for is just kicking in, so it’s important we pay attention to Parliament over the next two weeks.
It felt like a long election campaign and it was great when it ended. I almost appreciated the long lull between election day and the announcement of the coalition Government agreement. But it has been a long time since the 53rd Parliament was dissolved on 8th September - it’s good to be back.
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The Labour Party leader says National's throwing away years of work for ideological reasons.
Chris Hipkins has unveiled his shadow cabinet, and vows they're ready to hold the Government to account.
Prime Minister Chris Luxon's revealed his 100-day plan, which includes reinstating the Resource Management Act- which Labour repealed.
Hipkins says it won't take the country forward.
"They were banging on for years about how flawed the RMA was and how it needed to be overhauled. And now they're wanting to go back to the RMA, so it's not like they're going to drive something forward- they just seem to want to throw everything into reverse."
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Despite some setbacks, Luxon has unveiled his Government's 100-day plan.
The plan features 49 action points, including repealing the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax, the Clean Car Discount scheme, and Fair Pay Agreement legislation- and setting new targets for the health system.
Political commentator Grant Duncan says the Government's next phase will need to do more to fix the issues they planned to address.
"They need to get serious about their actual plans, particularly with rebuilding the economy. Just repealing stuff isn't rebuilding the economy."
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Winston Peters has doubled down on conspiratorial comments about the media, and gone further.
Yesterday, he called a $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund a Government 'bribe'.
Today, ahead of the Government's first Cabinet meeting, Peters asked media to tell the public what criteria had to be signed up to- to get the money.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Luxon will likely be annoyed with Winston's remarks.
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The Government's plan to slash the public sector is having an adverse impact on Wellington's property market.
According to ANZ's latest property report, Wellington's housing market is lagging behind the rest of the country as people brace for job losses.
ANZ economist Andre Castaing says housing markets all over the nation are expected to go sideways within the next year.
"The housing market in Wellington- we would characterise that as having the potential to be a touch slower. However across the country, there's a range of things impacting house prices."
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Congratulations to the new coalition Government, which was sworn in today by Governor General Dame Cindy Kiro.
And as our new Prime Minister says- they're ready to get stuck in.
But things are already getting better. Some say it's just because of the vibe. But don't discount plain good luck and timing.
The so-called hermit kingdom is over. As we heard a week ago, nearly a quarter of a million people chose to emigrate to New Zealand in the past year.
Today we learn tourism is up- and spending in the year to September hit $30 billion dollars.
That's up $6.6 billion on the previous year - and pretty much back to pre-Covid levels.
This while the international spend is still recovering.
As Nicola Willis finally gets her warrant to fool with the economy, the economy appears to be turning a corner.
In today's paper is a report that economists believe the Reserve Bank will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. It also reports that markets are predicting a rate cut as early as May and as many as 3 cuts through 2024. Which is great news for first-home buyers.
With all this good news, there's still one thing that bugs me about this Government and that's the disconnect that you feel when a tax cut has to be funded by a tax rise.
You'll remember that was the problem I had during the election where the tax cut for the squeezed middle was funded by a wealth tax on rich foreigners buying houses. For a Government averse to taxes, it seemed off brand.
The new version came up after the Government's surprise axing of the smokefree programme, and I say surprise because no one can find mention of it in any pre-election manifesto but axed it has been on New Zealand First and ACT's insistence.
Yesterday on Newshub Nation, Nicola Willis said extra revenue from more widespread cigarette sales would help fund tax cuts in lieu of the now-scrapped foreign buyers tax.
This was a loose thing to say prompting accusations that long-term public health had been sacrificed for a short-term cash-grab.
Which is a bad way to start a term.
It's not rocket science. If you cut a tax you cut expenditure. You don't tax a fall guy to make it work. That's inequitable.
Jack Tame asked Nicola Willis if she accepted more people would die because of cancelling the #Smokefree policy.
Willis says- "I have not seen advice or analysis of that so I am not prepared to answer that question".
FFS, this is what we can expect in the next three years.
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This week on Politics Central, Nicola Willis joins the show to explain why she has the political chops to be our new Finance Minister- and how her English Literature degree plays into that.
Later, ACT Leader and incoming Minister for Regulation David Seymour explains what his new roles entail- and why so many public sector jobs need to be slashed.
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The incoming Minister for Regulation is promising to make real change.
ACT Leader David Seymour picked up the role during coalition negotiations alongside Associate Health and Education ministerial roles.
Seymour says there's a 'disease of over-regulation' plaguing New Zealand.
"We'll change the way Government regulates, delete a lot of bad regulation and start getting people spending more time producing and less time complying."
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Tonight on The Huddle, Neale Jones from Government relations firm Capital and Infrastructure NZ CEO Nick Leggett joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
After 40 days, we're finally on the verge of reaching a coalition deal. ACT, National and NZ First have agreed on policies, ministerial positions, processes and the new Deputy PM. Will it all be worth the wait?
Our chief censor's given an unrestricted rating to a controversial sex education book for teens that was pulled in Australia. Parents have expressed their alarm with this decision- does this seem to0 extreme?
Wellington Council has put up a Christmas tree of road cones. Some people are terribly upset about this- isn't it just funny?
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New Zealanders can soon expect to see a clear picture of what the new Government will do.
Prime Minister-elect Chris Luxon has confirmed coalition negotiations between National, ACT and New Zealand First have wrapped up.
Luxon says the agreements are before the respective parties for sign off- and he'll reveal his Cabinet and their policies tomorrow.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says all eyes will be on tomorrow's signing ceremony, where we'll find out the identity of the new Deputy Prime Minister.
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All three parties in the incoming Government have agreed on a coalition deal- which will be signed tomorrow.
A joint statement from Chris Luxon, David Seymour and Winston Peters has announced negotiations to form a government that will deliver for all New Zealanders have concluded.
ACT party leader David Seymour says the new Government will be ready to tackle the 'substantial' challenges impacting New Zealanders.
"I think ACT has got a very strong policy agenda as part of what will be our shared Government policy- together with New Zealand First and National, I think we'll be able to start tackling those problems."
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I think David Seymour has reason to be pretty salty if he isn't given the Deputy Prime Minister’s job.
This is not really about whether the job is really a job or whether it's just ceremonial.
The fact is- it is a title. And that title implies seniority, it means whoever gets the Deputy Prime Minister role is the second most senior person in the Government.
And it would be pretty bizarre if National gave that to Winston Peters over David Seymour, given how many times National told us before the election they really didn’t want to have to work with Winston.
Chris Luxon said it, Chris Bishop said it, Nicola Willis said it- and they weren't subtle.
Nicola Willis said: “I don’t want to go into Government with NZ First"
Now we understand they didn’t have a choice about going into Government in the end, but that is very different to making Winston the second most senior person in Government when he doesn't even have the second biggest party in the Government.
It would be pretty insulting to David Seymour, especially given how close Seymour and Luxon worked together in the lead up to the election.
The best argument for Winston to get the job is experience, but I'm not super convinced by that argument.
There is a long list of people who’ve gone straight into the Deputy Prime Minister's job without having done a single day in Cabinet before.
Don McKinnon under Jim Bolger, Geoffrey Palmer under David Lange- you can go back through history and find more.
Probably the thing that counts most against David for the job is that he’s plugged so hard for it when he’s previously made is sound like he's not interested in the baubles of office.
But then again, that’s something he and Winston now have in common isn’t it?
Probably the easiest solution to this problem is to not pick between the two of them, but split the job instead.
Whether with a time share- one does 18 months then hands it over to the other to do 18 months, or we just have two Deputy Prime Ministers.
But it still doesn't solve that awkward problem, does it?
The guy who the Nats really did want to work with is now sharing the job of equal seniority with the guy they really didn't want to work with.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Jordan Williams from the Taxpayers' Union and Ali Jones from Red PR joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Nicola Willis has confirmed she won't be the Deputy Prime Minister, and Luxon said she was never in the running. Is this true? Who are our picks for the role?
The incoming Government will have to find a quarter of a billion dollar to give ECE educators pay parity- because their predecessors didn't budget for it properly. What other harmful surprises are waiting in the wings?
SailGP has made the decision to not stage the event in Auckland in March 2024. Is this a loss for the region?
Are we excited for Black Friday this year?
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Chris Luxon says he didn't lobby for his party deputy, Nicola Willis, to be Deputy Prime Minister.
The role remains one of the last sticking points of Coalition negotiations, with policies and other ministerial positions largely agreed.
Willis today said she wasn't in the race and Winston Peters or David Seymour are likely to get the job.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says it's looking likely that Winston's the new favourite to take up the role as Deputy Prime Minister.
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Tonight on the Huddle, former National staffer Ben Thomas and Jack Tame from ZB's Saturday Mornings and Q&A joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Waka Kotahi is under fire for spending thousands on pies for construction workers working on the Mt Messenger bypass project in Taranaki. Is this worth the outrage?
The post-election talks have turned to delegating ministerial roles, and Nicola Willis, David Seymour and Winston Peters are all vying for the role of Deputy Prime Minister. Who would we pick? Does Luxon have to pick one candidate?
National MP Cameron Brewer has copped backlash for his joke about the return of 'pale, stale males'. Is this a rookie error- or grave mistake?
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A former Deputy Prime Minister disagrees the role's largely ceremonial.
Prime Minister-elect Chris Luxon has confirmed policies have been settled in Coalition talks - and negotiations have turned to ministerial roles.
ACT's David Seymour made a public pitch for Deputy, but Luxon has downplayed the role's importance.
Sir Don McKinnon was the deputy to Jim Bolger in his National Government, under the single-party system.
He says under MMP it can be someone from a different party, but the duties are real.
"You're there to do things that your leader, your Prime Minister, doesn't want to do, meet the people he doesn't want to meet, go to the places he doesn't get time to go to."
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Again, it's looking pretty positive on the formation of Government today.
Here's the update for the day- The policy work is now actually done, all three parties have now reached agreement on the policy agenda for the next three years.
This seems like a minor step forward from yesterday, because yesterday ACT and NZ First had reached agreement with National.
Today, ACT and NZ First have signed off on each others’ agreements. So minor- but significant.
Because that is the hardest and most complex part of the negotiations. The next bit is basically doling out the fancy jobs, and Deputy PM is fast becoming the one we’re all going to watch.
Because this is also obviously a battle of the egos.
David Seymour is making a big play publicly of wanting it, he said to the waiting media today that he deserves the job because the job should go to the second biggest party - and the second biggest party is ACT.
It's kind of weird that he's putting up such a big fight publicly, given that he’s previously indicated he’s not so worried about portfolios and more interested in policy wins, but here we are.
But David, as he said, thinks he deserves it because his party is the biggest of the minor parties.
Winston Peters will likely think he deserves it because of seniority and because he’s done the job twice already.
Nicola Willis reportedly wants it too, and you can make an argument for her getting it given National is miles bigger than both the little parties and she will be Finance Minister - Deputy PM will signal her seniority in Government.
What none of them will say out loud but all of them will surely be thinking is that the Deputy is the one who gets to be acting PM when the actual PM is out of the country, which is why they all want it.
I don’t envy Luxon having to pick between them- but maybe he doesn’t have to. He could break with convention and have not one but two deputies.
One job for David, one for Winston and none for Nicola because she will probably have a more manageable ego than the other two.
It's not an unprecedented idea, Fiji has three.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and current affairs commentator Josie Pagani joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
National's Chris Luxon says his coalition partners have made a breakthrough in post-election negotiations, but Winston Peters isn't on the same page. Who is trying to strongarm who in these discussions?
Labour leader Chris Hipkins called for a ceasefire in Gaza yesterday- what do we think of this? How does this reflect on National?
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Chris Luxon says he and his soon-to-be coalition partners have achieved a milestone in Government-forming negotiations.
The incoming Prime Minister says the policy element of talks with ACT and New Zealand First concluded last night.
Luxon says the last remaining step is formalising Cabinet positions - but the end is in sight.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says NZ First and ACT still need to approve the final arrangements with National- and Winston Peters won't budge.
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National is celebrating a breakthrough in negotiations, claiming they've agreed to policy deals with NZ First and ACT.
Despite what he called significant progress, Luxon wouldn’t say whether it was likely a Government could be formed by the end of the week.
Finance Minister-elect Nicola Willis says all three parties still need to sign off on a final deal before the new Government is formed.
"We're pleased that we've reached that significant milestone, because our focus has been on getting policy aligned this year. That's ultimately what the Government's going to be judged on."
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National says Labour leader Chris Hipkins' call for a ceasefire in Gaza was a surprise.
Hipkins yesterday said he believes Israel's Defence Force's response has been disproportionate and indiscriminate.
National's Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, Gerry Brownlee, says calling for a ceasefire has no point if both sides aren't willing to cooperate.
Brownlee says National backs negotiating efforts from parties closer to the conflict- and that Qatari negotiators are doing a good job.
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ACT's David Seymour says he's no longer gambling on when coalition negotiations will wrap up.
Prime Minister-elect Chris Luxon today announced the three parties have reached an agreement on policy.
But the leaders of ACT and New Zealand First say they're not all the way there just yet.
Seymour says he's closed his account at the TAB - given last week he wrongly predicted a deal was just days away.
"So I'm not betting on this anymore, but I think we're a day or two away if I had to put a bet on it."
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So, still no Government.
It's not a biggie. Remember, they only started talking after the specials were counted so it's only been a fortnight. But then again, why did they only start talking after the specials were counted? But still not a biggie.
Meanwhile, all those getting stuck into Winston are not using their knowledge of history or politics.
He doesn't have to be in Government. He can say no easily and then bring the Government down whenever he wants. Yes, he's the tail and National's the dog but the dog needs Winston's tail far more than Winston needs the dog.
And when it comes to the difficulties of the negotiation, many seem to forget that Winston is an old-fashioned anti-globalist who hates immigration and the stress it puts on our infrastructure.
They seem not to remember that it was Winston's idea to slap a foreign buyers ban in our property market. And he was part of the team that did in 2017.
But letting foreign buyers back in is at the centre of National's tax plan.
So they're asking New Zealand First to do an absolute U-turn in terms of policy and principles. That's a big ask. It was always going to be. It was evident weeks before the election. And Luxon has already hinted that the foreign buyers ban may stay. That's a big U-turn too.
If there's something to criticise National for, it's dropping their 2 ticks blue campaign and letting Winston in. They have much in common but the differences are big stones in the path of coalition.
Meanwhile, while the cat's away Wayne Brown comes out to play. National's policy of dropping the Auckland fuel tax is leading the mayor to ways to raise money to build the roads. All of a sudden congestion tax is on the fast track.
It's proof that there is no such thing as a free tax cut. National wants to drop the tax to give Aucklanders more money in the back pocket, but as Wayne Brown points out that comes at the expense of roads. So what do you want more? Roads or tax cuts. Tax cuts or congestion taxes.
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I have never negotiated a merger. And I have never negotiated an acquisition.
But I still think I could teach our incoming Prime Minister a thing or two.
Because here we are into another week of coalition talks between National, ACT and NZ First and, after all the to-ing and fro-ing from the Cordis Hotel in Auckland, we still don’t have a new Government.
But the bit about it all that seems so obvious to me - but not to the great negotiator, it seems - is why didn’t he sort out this sticky stuff right at the start instead of leaving it until now?
The sticky stuff or the sticky things I’m referring to are NZ First’s opposition to National’s plan to tax rich foreigners buying houses here to help pay for its tax plan. And National’s weariness of ACT’s plan for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi principles.
As you probably know, ACT and NZ First have found some common ground on the Treaty referendum idea, which is obviously proving to be a bit of a fly-in-the-ointment for National.
So why on earth didn’t National sort this out right at the start? Then Luxon would have known whether there was a realistic chance of forming this strong stable Government we keep hearing about.
Of course it was easy for Luxon to stride past the cameras in the early stages and bang on about making great progress. Of course he could say that when his plan was to leave the tricky stuff to the end.
They probably were making great progress if they were doing all the easy stuff first. Not so great now, though. By the end-of-the-day yesterday, he wasn’t talking about progress. He was talking about the meeting with Winston Peters being “helpful”.
You‘ll have your own interpretation of what that means. My interpretation, is that Luxon was saying the meeting was “helpful” because he got a better understanding of why Winston was digging his heels in.
That’s pure speculation on my part.
But even I - who isn’t the great negotiator and who doesn't claim to be the great negotiator - can see a mile away that this is turning into a cock-up. If it isn’t already.
What was Luxon’s plan, do you think? To get Winston Peters and David Seymour so far down the track with all the simple stuff that they’d cave-in on the tricky stuff, because he thought they’d already be seeing themselves in Government?
You know what it’s like. You apply for a job. You get an interview. Then maybe a second interview. And this is over a few weeks. And, by then, you’re drafting your resignation letter in your head, practising your farewell speech, working out the best route to take to get to the new job in the mornings, and then they offer you the job but the pay is less than you wanted. But you’re so invested in the new job that you just say yes.
Is that how Christopher Luxon saw it all playing out, do you think?
Either way, his minimal political experience versus David Seymour and Winston Peters’ political experience is proving to be his achilles heel.
Remember all the big talk on election night? “I’m going to use the next three weeks until the special votes are fully counted to actually progress the relationships and the arrangements with each individual party.”
That’s now starting to look like a lot of hot air, doesn’t it? And if hot air - at best, political naivety.
I was reading Matthew Hooton’s column in the NZ Herald at the weekend and he was saying that Luxon is a talker, not a listener. And he reckons there’s growing frustration with with his “I-know-best” approach.
Which makes these talks look more like a hostile takeover than a merger.
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National's Nicola Willis and Labour's Ginny Andersen join Nick Mills for Politics Monday.
Together they discuss the ongoing coalition negotiations between National, ACT and NZ First, fresh bullying allegations made against Ginny, the state of the Government's books, and pharmacists calling for prescriptions to remain free.
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Government forming talks will continue this week, as Chris Luxon's been unable to reach a consensus on a number of key issues this weekend.
The incoming Prime Minister met with Winston Peters this afternoon, and has spoken with David Seymour over the phone.
Despite insisting good progress is being made, Luxon says there are three final issues proving to be the sticking points.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says National's proposed foreign buyers tax will likely be a sticking point that NZ First won't budge on.
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This week on Politics Central, Jason Walls recapped the ongoing coalition negotiations and shared his predictions for who will be assigned those top ministerial positions.
Later, Dr Paul Buchanan joins the Weekend Collective to share his insight into the importance of APEC and what we can expect from Biden's meeting with Xi.
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This week on the Sunday Panel, ZB host Roman Travers and commentator Irene Gardiner joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the week- and more!
Coalition negotiations- are we overreacting to how long this is taking? Was this process ever going to be straightforward or easy? Does it have any reflection on the kind of Government Luxon will lead?
The World Health Organisation has declared loneliness a global public health concern. Do we do a good job when it comes to social connection? Have we gotten worse?
Eyebrows have been raised over the prices of some of Jerry Seinfeld's better tour seats- would you pay $849 to see Jerry Seinfeld?
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National leader Chris Luxon says coalition negotiations are in the last stages, as talks are expected to resume today.
Luxon met with New Zealand First's Winston Peters in Auckland yesterday, and had a phone call with ACT's David Seymour.
NZ Herald Deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan says Luxon's private sector experience may not have set him up well for coalition talks.
He says politics is obviously different to business.
"He has to talk to New Zealand First and Winston Peters, there's no-one else in the tent. And Winston Peters has the nuclear button- he could just walk away and trigger another election."
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Tonight on The Huddle, Nick Mills from ZB's Wellington Mornings and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
The three main parties have stayed quiet about the details of their coalition negations, but some National MPs have said they're close to forming a Government. What do we think of this? Are we over the waiting period?
Auckland Council is making progress on proposed congestion charges, with Wayne Brown being particularly eager to get these charges going. Is this a money-raising exercise?
MFAT staff have reduced their use of Te Reo in official documents released to the incoming Government- is this a bad look?
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Post-election coalition talks are still under way, with leaders from all three parties meeting at Auckland's Cordis Hotel.
National's Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon have claimed that negotiations are heading into the final stages.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says leaders from all three parties seem to agree talks are progressing well- but it's too soon to know for sure?
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Winston Peters is expected to emerge from a meeting with National soon, as Government-forming talks continue.
NZ Herald political reporter Adam Pearse is outside the Cordis Hotel in Auckland, and says Peters has been with National's leader Chris Luxon for more than two hours.
He says the meetings are getting longer, which could mean they are getting into the detail.
"The latest we've heard is that there are still policy differences that they have yet to iron out. And I would imagine if you were spending over two hours discussing in a hotel room, ministerial positions are not the only things you're talking about."
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Every week a member of the Newstalk ZB Parliament team joins Nick Mills for the Beehive Buzz.
This week Senior Political Reporter Sophie Trigger discusses the how coalition talks are going between Luxon, Seymour and Peters, a recent poll, and final recount results.
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All sides of the soon-to-be Government want talks completed as soon as possible.
David Seymour, Winston Peters and Chris Luxon sat down together this morning for the first time, in Auckland.
This meeting will be the first of several collaborative meetings in the city centre this week.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says nothing significant has been divulged- but all three parties are keen to get a Government formed quickly.
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A political commentator says leaks from post-election talks are rife this year.
The leaders of National, ACT and New Zealand First have now all sat around a table together, a first in their negotiations.
Prime Minister elect Chris Luxon has wanted talks to stay private.
But Ben Thomas says that hasn't been the case.
He says it may reflect the parties playing off against each other.
"There's the question of how Winston Peters is going to kind of conduct himself as part of this trio, and maybe part of that is distancing himself from the other two."
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Tonight on The Huddle, current affairs commentator Josie Pagani and Tim Wilson from Maxim Institute joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
In coalition updates: Luxon's trip to APEC is officially off, Winston has been AWOL from Parliament- but the parties are set to meet later this week. Who knows what's going on? What can we expect in the coming days?
NZ First's Shane Jones told Radio Waatea his party supports a 'reset' on the Treaty of Waitangi. Will Luxon approve? Is this too divisive?
Former Prime Minister David Cameron is back in Parliament following Suella Braverman's departure? Is this a good move for the current UK Government?
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One expert has issued words of caution for anyone expecting the incoming Government will be easier on businesses.
BusinessDesk's Pattrick Smellie says it shouldn't be a given that the National-ACT-NZ First coalition will take all the pressure of the business sector- and cited their history of policies and statements.
Smellie explained that the banks, supermarkets, fuel companies will likely experience discomfort as the incoming Government addresses the cost of living crisis.
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New Zealand First's caucus met today in Wellington- but the Party's leader was noticeably absent.
None of the newly elected MPs explained where Winston Peters was, but they said work was progressing in his absence.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says senior NZ First MP Shane Jones claimed progress was under way, and Peters would turn up- eventually.
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David Seymour says a referendum on Treaty principles is still on the negotiating table.
ACT signalled the policy would be a priority in post-election talks.
Prime Minister-elect Chris Luxon has said a referendum would be divisive, but New Zealand First's Shane Jones today told Radio Waatea he understands Seymour's concerns.
Seymour says it's an idea whose time has come.
"I think the more people understand what we're proposing to do, the more people hear about that- I think more people see it as a positive."
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and former Labour chief of staff Mike Munro joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Chris Luxon has warned coalition negotiations will be extended for another week- and claimed it seems unlikely he'll make it to APEC. Is this a bad look for the National Party, or does this process need more time?
MBIE is planning to cut jobs and budgets in the coming months- is this a good idea?
ANZ brought in a net profit of over $2.2 billion in the year ending September. Is this a bad look in a cost of living crisis?
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Sticking points in National's tax plan seem be causing friction in Government negotiations.
New Zealand First's Shane Jones told media today his party's working out some 'jagged edges'.
NewstalkZB understands they involve how National will pay for tax cuts.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says two issues are lifting the foreign buyers ban and dipping into the Climate Emergency Response Fund.
He says New Zealand First aren't happy for that money to be used on tax cuts- and would rather it go into making regions more resilient to climate change.
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National's Nicola Willis is defending Luxon as he extends post-election coalition talks.
Luxon has begun another week of discussions with coalition partners ACT and NZ First, and it's looking less likely he'll attend APEC on Wednesday.
The Finance Minister-elect says she's not going to go into detail about who's talking to who, but coalition discussions are progressing.
"We're making sure we're getting through the issues that matter so we can sign agreements, go to the Governor-General and form a Government."
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A former Minister says the continuing Government negotiations are starting to look bad for Chris Luxon.
Another week of talks has begun, and the Prime Minister-elect says he's unlikely to be able to leave for the APEC Summit on Wednesday, with nothing wrapped up.
Peter Dunne says Luxon gave the impression his business background would help him strike a deal quickly.
"He's got the second-longest set of negotiations since NZ First was first involved in negations. And he's somehow seems to believe he could do it all differently- and better. He's fallen into the same trap others have."
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It's starting to get a bit awkward with how long these coalition negotiations are taking, especially now that Chris Luxon’s warned us we might not get a deal until the end of this week.
These talks are about to become the second longest set of coalition talks in the history of MMP.
Former Green Party MP Gareth Hughes went back through all of the elections and counted how long it took from each election date to the end of the coalition talks.
1996 was of course the longest- and most famous for it because Winston went fishing.
2002 under Helen Clark took 12 days, 2005 took 30 days, 2008 under John Key took 8 days, 2011 took 9 days, 2014 took 15 days, and then 2017 with Jacinda and Winston took 26 days.
As of today, these talks are at 30 days. They are tied for the second longest spot with 2005. From tomorrow, they become the second longest only to the infamous 1996 fishing trip talks.
That’s embarrassing for Chris Luxon.
Because he’s the guy who’s talked up his negotiating skills, given he’s done a lot of mergers and acquisitions. And he’s the guy who set the deadline of wrapping this up in time for him to go to APEC.
If he wants to still go to APEC, he needs this wrapped up by Wednesday. Even he now doesn’t think that’s going to happen.
It's awkward for him to be failing in the very first task he’s set for himself as PM.
The start of a Government is a really important period. It sets up voters’ expectations for the first term, that's why Governments often write up 100 day plans.
Because they want to create a sense of urgency and give the impression they’re changing things fast. Literally the opposite of that is happening right now. There is no sense of urgency, nothing's changing fast, there's no momentum.
Awkwardly, it also feels a bit like Luxon might have underestimated a couple of politicians. Namely, Winston and David Seymour, who seem to be running rings around him.
Unfortunately for Chris Luxon, every day that these talks drag on chip away at the perception that voters have of him as being a great mergers and acquisitions guy.
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Labour's Ginny Andersen and National's Nicola Willis join Nick Mills for Politics Monday.
Together they discuss how coalition negotiations are tracking, New Zealand now being the second highest vaping nation, allegations that Ginny yelled at a teenage volunteer on election night, the Electoral Commission facing counting errors, and Chris Hipkins changing his tune on tax.
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Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says this week will be important to finishing coalition negotiations.
He says there's been constant work over the weekend, and progress is being made.
Luxon says while there's agreement on the big goals, there's difference on how they should be achieved.
He says the Treaty referendum is one policy that's being discussed and worked through.
Luxon told Mike Hosking the coalition talks have been a very thorough process.
He says they've gone through each party's manifesto top to bottom to work out similarities and points of difference.
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Certain policies could be sticking points in holding up negotiations between National, Act and New Zealand First.
National will need both parties to make a government after they lost two seats following special votes.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says it's hard to figure out how much progress was made over the weekend.
He told Kate Hawkesby while there seems to be agreement on infrastructure issues, race relations policy could be causing tension.
“Christopher Luxon – he hasn’t ruled out, say for example, the Treaty referendum, but it sounds like he very, very, very much doesn’t want that to be a thing because of how divisive he envisions that being.”
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FIRST WITH YESTERDAY'S NEWS (highlights from the weekend on Newstalk ZB) It's Quite Good Like This, Really/Hard to Be a Bowler These Days/Come On, Get Happy/Cartoon Rabbit Holes
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It's been 28 days from the 2023 election and one week since the final results were counted- and coalition talks are carrying on.
Chris Luxon and National will need NZ First and ACT to help form a new Government, after the special votes were weighed up.
Electoral law expert Graeme Edgeler says other Governments have taken extra time to get established, and that this isn't an isolated case.
"It really is the few extra days the recount had added to the timing. Once the recount's done, we'll have MPs and then anyone who's an MP can be a minister."
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Chris Luxon remains unsure about whether he'll make it to APEC, as coalition talks continue.
The conference begins in San Francisco next week.
A week on from the final election results, National is working with ACT and New Zealand First to form a Government.
NZ Herald political reporter Adam Pearse says Luxon's coalition partners will need to form an agreement, making it unlikely that Luxon will get to depart for APEC.
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It’s ridiculous how long it takes to count all the votes in a general election, only to get it 'mostly right' and how long it takes for several groups of adults to get into a room and haggle out an arrangement as to how to govern, but I’m rather enjoying the country being rudderless at the moment.
Have you noticed how much less noise there is? There is something quite refreshing about not having a formal Government, just a caretaker government cleaning out desks, while the public servants keep paying the bills.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting we throw away democracy and go all Lord of the Flies on it, but after the fiery fun of an election campaign that felt like it lasted all year, there is something calming about being in this holding pattern. I'm not wishing this time away, the norm will return soon enough.
It’s a relief not having to listen to the carefully crafted yet meaningless messages and narratives on high rotate.
It’s peaceful without the announcements about announcements, the announcement of reviews and then their recommendations we’re never really sure are adopted, and hearing about endless ministerial muck ups.
In this moment between caretaker and newly formed Government is when you’re reminded just how much politics is about noise, and how little it can be about governing.
While we wait for a new Government to be formed, there is a lot of speculation about this new coalition. Only those behind closed doors know what’s going on. I really don’t care if Winston Peters has ignored David Seymour’s calls or texts - I’m not so good at correspondence myself.
And we know to expect some theatre, oblique comments, and veiled threats. This is not our first MMP coalition talks.
We know it will be sorted when it’s sorted.
What I have noticed about the last 4 weeks since the election, and the announcement of the special votes is actually how little it affects day to day life. The sun still comes up, work must be done, family looked after- life goes on. Yes, for some the detail is hugely important, and I hope those in real need get the relief they need, but for many of us, it’s has been just the confirmation of change that has buoyed us along.
As often happens after all the promises, berating and finger pointing that an election campaign involves - we should all be enjoying this brief directionless period whereby we remembering that at the end of the day we’re responsible for ourselves. The Government can only do so much. Basically it’s time to get up, and get on with it until another election campaign begins.
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Labour leader and outgoing Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was re-elected as leader. Was he really only the valid option?
Where do coalition negotiations currently sit?
Should Electoral Commissioner Karl Le Quesne lose his job over the election mistakes?
ZB's Political Editor Jason Walls wraps the week that was.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Nick Mills from ZB's Wellington Mornings and BRG director Georgina Stylianou joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Winston Peters held an impromptu press conference about the ongoing coalition discussions, and claimed 'speed is of the essence'. Is Winston getting impatient?
Labour's Helen White is under pressure to defend her campaign, after emails leaked showing her volunteers blamed Hipkins, and the Greens for her election result? What do we think of this?
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Fifteen voting places have been found to have data entry errors causing changes for electorate candidate results.
The Electoral Commission has just released amended official results after doing a full check of party, electorate and special votes.
Errors include one electorate where some special votes were entered incorrectly, and 620 votes in the East Coast that were included in the preliminary count but not the official count.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says this mistake adds to a worsening look for the Electoral Commission.
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The head of the under-pressure Electoral Commission has apologised once again, for yet another voting day error.
Earlier this week, the Herald revealed 3 voting places where the data entry was incorrect.
But after an investigation, the Commission revealed that number was actually 15.
Chief Electoral Officer Karl Le Quesne says this was a regrettable error.
"It appears the quality assurance checks didn't pick it up- they should have. When we went through yesterday and applied all those checks again, that's when we found things didn't reconcile."
Overall results have not been affected, nor the electorates where recounts are underway.
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I was driving home from work late yesterday afternoon listening to Heather du Plessis-Allan, and I started feeling slightly aggravated.
No, more than slightly aggravated, I felt a little bit angry.
I thought to myself, New Zealand has voted overwhelmingly for change.
We thought we were voting for a government led by a businessman, that would make decisions, like a businessman.
Yes, Christopher Luxon is a politician, but his history is running businesses.
Big businesses too, that I am sure some of us would have liked.
He's no doubt comfortable making decisions that would have huge ramifications, come at huge cost, and need to be made very quickly.
And I was thinking about John who called the show, and asked me why we were not talking about the new government.
John was right.
Why are we just sitting back and waiting?
And don't tell me it's only been a few days since last Friday when the final results came out.
Tomorrow it will be a month, and we are all sitting back saying nothing, waiting.
Remember the term is only 36 months, and we've already lost one.
Still we wait.
We voted for change and yet we've got the same.
I don't always get it right, but I really felt Christopher Luxon would have this one sorted, even though he was going up against one of the wisest and experienced heads in New Zealand politics, Winston Peters.
A smart businessman would have used those three weeks to have plan A, plan B and plan C sorted.
And I feel those who voted for change and voted for a positive future.
You've been let down.
Okay, we might find out today that the coalition has been sorted, but I doubt it.
I've had enough.
I don't want to wait anymore.
I don't want to sit in the background, waiting for the three leaders to come to some kind of compromise.
I want to be treated like I matter.
I want Christopher Luxon on a daily basis to let us, the people in New Zealand know, exactly what's happening in the conversations.
We need to know exactly what's happening with the coalition talks, and now.
I'm sick of it.
I'm sick of these silly games where everybody is playing hide and seek with cameras following their every move.
At the very least, put the stop watch on and give us a end date.
Stop treating us like we don’t matter.
We want to know, and we want to get on with making New Zealand great again.
The majority voted for that.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Jack Tame from ZB's Saturday Mornings and Q&A and Phil O'Reilly from Iron Duke partners joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
The Electoral Commission is under pressure to recheck the voting results after the Herald uncovered wrong vote counts at three polling booths. Is this going to lead to a crisis in confidence in future election results?
New Zealand's Jewish community is reporting escalating threats and abuse against them. Do politicians have a responsibility to watch their rhetoric in fear of inflaming the situation?
Former Prime Minister Jim Bolger is the latest to oppose ACT's proposed referendum on the Treaty. Does there need to be a debate about the Treaty- or is the threat of civil unrest too strong?
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Economists are wracking their brains over how negotiations are set to shape the incoming Government's economic polices.
ANZ's latest economic outlook examined the fiscal outlook for the incoming National-led Government, and noted that the addition of ACT and NZ First could lead to more significant changes.
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen says National will face potential roadblocks in introducing tax cuts and a foreign buyers tax, as those have divided all three parties.
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Lobbying efforts are already underway to prevent the incoming Government from implementing a new tax on commercial and industrial building owners.
National campaigned on removing the ability of commercial and industrial building owners to deduct depreciation as an expense when paying tax.
This extra tax would bring in an extra $2 billion over four years and help cover National's proposed tax cuts.
NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny says this is one of the easiest methods National can use to generate extra tax revenue, as less voters are affected by it.
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New Zealand First and ACT have made their first contact in coalition negotiations since the election wrapped up.
ACT’s chief of staff Andrew Ketels and NZ First’s Darroch Ball met in Wellington today to establish 'lines of communication'.
As of yet, Winston Peters has not responded to David Seymour's invitation for a conversation.
NZ Herald deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan says there's still tension between Seymour and Peters, meaning other party members will have to clear the way.
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A 19-year-old Waitaki candidate has spoken out about the abuse he faced on the campaign trail.
Ethan Reille says he went through a 'daunting' experience in his first campaign- he was subject to verbal and digital abuse and threats, and was spat at a rural A&P event.
He says young candidates shouldn't have to experience that kind of abuse in politics.
"We've seen it progressively get worse as more young people enter the political space. At the same time, as a Pakeha male, I don't share the brunt of what our female, Indigenous and Pasifika candidates face."
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An electoral law expert says a vote counting error could have been easily avoided.
The Electoral Commission is conducting a full check, after results from three polling booths were recorded incorrectly.
The data entry slip-up saw the Leighton Baker Party and the New Conservatives score votes meant for National.
Barrister Graeme Edgeler says it should have triggered alerts when National got no votes at one booth.
"You should have two independent people both inputting the data, and then the computer checks if they're the same. I would have assumed they did that, and the fact that this wasn't caught suggested they don't."
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Tonight on The Huddle, Ali Jones from Red PR and Kiwiblog contributor and Curia pollster David Farrar joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Chris Hipkins will remain leader of the Labour party after securing a vote of confidence from his caucus. Hipkins intends to run again in 2026- and capital gains and wealth taxes are back on the table again. Could these polices help Labour in the future? Is Chris Hipkins the future of the Labour party?
NZ Rugby has released a study into concussion among community rugby players, showing the impact on 94 percent of players is lower than on people jumping on trampolines. Does this make you keen to have your kids play rugby?
The Melbourne Cup has updated their dress code to allow men to wear shorts- what do we think of this?
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Time is running out for National's proposed pre-Christmas mini-budget.
Prime Minister-elect Chris Luxon and his new Finance Minister Nicola Willis promised to create a scaled-down budget by the end of 2023 back in September.
ANZ's latest economic outlook has cast doubt on whether the incoming Government can deliver on this promise.
BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie explains the roadblocks National will need to take into account while crafting a mini-budget in this timeframe.
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A former Labour Minister says the Party's Caucus has made the right move in re-selecting Chris Hipkins as its leader this morning.
Hipkins says he plans to stay on as leader until the next election.
Former Cabinet Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says Hipkins is the right choice, for now.
"Labour needs to spend the time taking stock of the election results- and how they got there."
Lees-Galloway says Hipkins has 18 months to prove he's the right man, or someone else will need to step up.
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Chris Hipkins has survived as Labour leader, after securing the confidence of his Caucus in a vote this morning.
Carmel Sepuloni was unanimously voted in as Labour Deputy - taking the place of Kelvin Davis, who stepped down.
Hipkins also confirmed he plans to run for Prime Minister in 2026, and all previously canned policies are back on the table including capital gains and wealth taxes.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Labour would be better off re-evaluating several key policies, but they should consider leaving wealth taxes alone.
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THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) What We Were Really Thinking/Israel Isn't Going Anywhere/Air New Zealand Has Issues/A Bet's a bet
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Labour's caucus is meeting in Upper Hutt today to decide whether 'boy from the Hutt' Chris Hipkins will keep his hand on the tiller.
It's the team's first caucus meeting since the election saw Labour thrust out of office.
Political Commentator Josie Pagani told Mike Hosking that Hipkins has to set his image as a fighter in opposition.
She says he should move the party back to basics, with a focus on cost of living and how to make the economy tick for working people.
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Tonight on The Huddle, former National press secretary Ben Thomas and former Labour chief of staff Mike Munro joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Concerned Christchurch residents have been tracking a woman with a history of poisoning neighbourhood cats and making them sick- do authorities need to intervene?
Once the final vote was known, Winston Peters called for a three-way meeting between himself, Chris Luxon and David Seymour. Is this sensible? Is it a good idea for Luxon to get the two of them negotiating together?
The Labour caucus is set to meet tomorrow to vote on leadership- is Chris Hipkins the obvious choice? Will his caucus want him to carry on as leader?
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The next phase of establishing a new Government is set to begin, as all the final ballots have been counted.
National is in talks with ACT and New Zealand First, after special votes revealed all three are needed to form a Government.
NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan says all three parties will need to have negotiations in person so Luxon can work around Seymour and Winston's complicated history with each other.
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Chris Luxon has shot down ACT's wish for a Treaty referendum, but there's suggestions there could be a consolation prize.
The Prime Minister-elect says it would be divisive and unhelpful.
He's in negotiations with ACT and New Zealand First, who need to combine to govern.
Former National Treaty Negotiations Minister Chris Finlayson says there is a case for looking at the Treaty of Waitangi Act.
"The tribunal's coming up to 50 years old- so what's the role of the tribunal in the future once it's dealt with historical grievances?"
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Labour MPs are not expected to oppose Chris Hipkins staying as party leader when they meet tomorrow.
It'll be the first catch up since Friday's full election result revealed who will stay and go.
They'll discuss the campaign and the political road map for the next three years- and they'll also vote on Labour's leadership.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Hipkins is expected to win handsomely.
"I've been hitting the phone and speaking to MPs- and the sense that I'm getting is that Chris Hipkins is going to be safe."
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Once again, thanks to MMP, we're back in a state of suspension and waiting for the conclusion of coalition talks. Which for all the parties' claims- are barely progressing.
And I think it's important for our collective sanity that we concentrate on what we know, rather than all the ifs, buts, maybes and reckons which we might imagine to be the case.
What is it that we actually know? We know that National and ACT and NZ First are willing to form a coalition, and that's pretty much it so far.
The big thing we need to do now is to get the three to meet. Now what we know about that was revealed in Winston Peters' only interview thus far, with Sean Plunket- which was held on Friday.
And he said two things- he said that all three parties should meet together at the same time. Not National-ACT, then National-NZ First, then ACT-NZ First. All three, at the same time, in the same room.
We can also presume that based on his telephone tag with David Seymour this weekend, he would like all of that to happen face to face. No-one on the phones, no-one on the conference call- all three walk into the room at the same time.
His other thing that he said in the interview was that the nuts and bolts of the coalition deal should be negotiated by chiefs of staff, and not by the leaders.
Now, those two ideas came out first thing on Friday. I mentioned this to Chris Bishop. And I actually think they're good ideas.
I think the leaders should be seen entering the same room, just to show that they're seriously considering a strong, stable, united Government. At the moment, I don't even know if they're in the same city.
And this is all so important that a phone call really isn't enough to nail it.
The other thing I feel is that NZ First is afraid of being thought of as an afterthought. Tacked on to the end of a National-ACT agreement. They feel they're just as important as the other two players.
Numerically smaller, but without them- there will be no Government.
Winston Peters believes he's an equal to the other two leaders. In fact, comparing his experience to the other two, he'll probably consider himself their superior. And his standing needs to acknowledge that, because we all know he has an ego.
Leaving the chiefs of staff to thrash it out is a good idea too, it means the leaders don't get sucked into all these arguments about minor details and hate each other. Then at the end of the day, they all gather for a symbolic signing- it's all how international treaties are negotiated.
All the chiefs of staff do it, and then the Presidents and Prime Ministers gather together to shake and wave.
So far on those two ideas mentioned- first thing on Friday, there's been no movement from National. I asked Chris Bishop about party talks on Friday, he says it's too soon to discuss.
All the other debates about what jobs the various MPs get in the coalition are still way down the track, which is why I didn't believe Andrew Williams' earlier claims on Mike Hosking.
Now, the really important thing in this whole process is not to underestimate Winston Peters. It's not his first rodeo, he's a lawyer. And he may not have started his own business, but he started his own party.
He hired all the staff, he chose all the candidates, he did all the branding, he made all the ads and got finance for the whole thing- that's a big job, and he's been the master of the rat king needed to be a political leader since he entered Parliament 45 years ago.
Don't underestimate Winston Peters.
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If you get a text message today from David Seymour - just reply. Just in case it is him.
Which is what Winston Peters should have done. Instead of thinking that the text message he got after the election from “David Seymour” wasn’t from Seymour himself, but was from someone pretending to be David Seymour.
But I suppose that’s what happens when you’ve been Foreign Minister before. You get all “5 Eyes” on it and you don’t trust anyone or anything.
So, with the final election results in, Christopher Luxon now has the job of cobbling together a government with ACT and NZ First. And he’s putting on a brave face but did it really have to be this way?
I don’t think it did. And I’ll tell you why.
National has 48 seats. The Green Party 15 seats. Add them together. What do you get? You get enough to form a government. That’s what you get.
Now think about how, before the election, Christopher Luxon used to bang on about how little time he spends in Wellington.
Remember that? Every opportunity, he’d say that if he didn’t need to be in Parliament he’d be out of Wellington, on the road, meeting people up and down the country.
Well, he might be regretting that. Because I think he would be a much happier man today if he’d actually spent a lot more time in Wellington over the last three years.
If he had, he could’ve come up with a much more exciting, forward-thinking, innovative government than the one he’s been lumbered with now that the special votes have all been counted and we have a final result.
His strategy over the past three years shouldn’t have been getting in the faces of as many people outside Wellington. His strategy should’ve been to get in the faces of key people in Wellington as much as possible. Selling them the idea of creating a truly transformational government.
Yes, he’s Prime Minister and National is going to be in government again. And, if he pulls off the “strong and stable” bit, then he will have done well, given the personalities he now has to work with. But, overall, his strategy has failed.
It’s failed because he hasn’t convinced enough people that two coalition partners are better than three and the best we can hope for during the next three years is a steady ship with no mutinies.
But if Luxon had done things differently, imagine how things could have looked today.
Imagine if Luxon had spent the last three years working the Green Party around to the idea of a National/Greens government?
Look at the number of seats now the final result is in. National has 48 seats. The Greens have 15. Put those together - 63 seats. A majority in the House.
Now I said before the election that I thought, for the first time since we’ve had MMP, people were going to be voting to have their values represented in Parliament - as much as voting for a government.
And I think we’ve seen that. Especially when you consider how the minor parties really are the winners.
But of those minor parties, and based on the results, it’s the Greens who have come out best. A record 15 seats. Compared to ACT’s 11 and NZ First’s 8 seats.
Now you might think that Christopher Luxon would have just as much of a handful keeping James Shaw and Marama Davidson in check, as he will with David Seymour and Winston Peters. And you may very well be right.
But imagine the possibilities.
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Labour's Ginny Andersen and National's Nicola Willis join Nick Mills for Politics Monday following special votes being counted.
Together they discuss whether David Seymour and Winston Peters can work constructively, if recounts can make a difference, the Mongrel Mob seeking legal advice regarding the National Party’s gang policy, and Golden Mile contracts remaining unsigned.
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Here is the good news so far post the final vote.
By the way, I expect a recount for a couple of seats. If you win or lose by less than 100, I think it's only fair to test it.
But how much pressure does that place on the Electoral Commission to have done their job properly.
It's one thing to take three long weeks to count, but in a recount if the numbers aren't exactly the same, and my suspicion is they won't be, then just what was it you were doing all that time?
Anyway, we will wait and see. But back to the good news.
So far Chris Luxon has delivered what he promised; relationship building outside public glare.
The positive signs are all parties have played by the rules.
The further good news to that is that Winston Peters, I am hoping, and this could be my naivety, wants at last to cement his place in political history by becoming a proper centrist success story that can survive more than one election cycle without him spitting the dummy, falling out with everyone and getting sent off into the wilderness.
MMP has become stuck in a centre left/centre right rut, with Act and the Greens established, successful brands, but limited to one major party each.
True MMP is about centrists who can move both ways and with united, ancient history, New Zealand First has a genuine chance at cementing a place.
The weakness is the fact they are supported by the angry, not necessarily the thinkers. But if Peters can grab a couple of good portfolios, look professional, deliver a few specific polices that don’t look like pork barrel, provincial growth slush funds, then he has a chance.
Luxon's great skill is he comes from business and business is about deals and co-operation. It's about common good and common goals. You don’t have to love each other or be mates.
New Zealand is a mess. There is a job to be done and it's not that hard to coalesce around that idea.
David Seymour is a professional. So all this noise about him hating Peters is for the media to obsess about, not the adults to let get in their way.
If everyone got on famously, we wouldn’t have separate parties, and that is the trick to MMP. It's not a love in, it’s a deal. A deal with a common purpose.
The first true MMP deal, 2017-2020, was OK, but was created for the wrong reasons and Covid blew it up.
This might just be our first real crack at adult, professional politics.
Fingers crossed.
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THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Monday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) It's a Recurring Nightmare/Last Chance for Concerts
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FIRST WITH YESTERDAY'S NEWS (highlights from the weekend on Newstalk ZB) Just a Couple of Details to Cover Off/How About Those Kiwis?/Thinking Too Hard About Food/Two Decades of Strangeness
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A former Attorney General has faith the parties set to form the incoming Government will get over their differences.
The final election result shows National will need ACT and New Zealand First, if it wants to govern.
ACT leader David Seymour and New Zealand First's Winston Peters butted heads repeatedly during the campaign.
But Former National MP Chris Finlayson says they have plenty of overlap in policy.
He says there will be smart-aleck quips from time to time, but that's the way it is - and the system requires people to work together.
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ACT's David Seymour says the final election results haven't changed his relationship with Winston Peters- but it's their job to make it work now voters have decided.
National and Act now need New Zealand First to form a Government after National lost two seats in the special vote counts.
Seymour says he'd reached out to New Zealand First before that, but they haven't heard back.
"I think now they're clearly made part of a future governing arrangement by Friday's numbers, it's incumbent on them to show up and talk- and I'm sure they will."
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On Friday, the final election results were announced and NZ First brought in 8 seats and the ACT Party got 11.
How will these coalition agreements go? To give us his insight, Former Attorney General Chris Finlayson joins the Weekend Collective.
Later, David Seymour tells us what his bottom lines are- and why he hasn't changed his option of Winston Peters.
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This week on the Sunday Panel, BusinessDesk Investments Editor and host of Cooking the Books, Frances Cook and partner at Freebairn and Hehir Lawyers, Liam Hehir joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the week- and more!
The final votes are in and Luxon will need Winston Peters to form a coalition Government with ACT after all- who wo we think will cause Luxon the most grief? Will National have to make more compromises than predicted?
Beloved Australian children’s music group The Wiggles have voiced disappointment with the City of Bunbury in Western Australia using their music to deter homeless people from a waterfront bandstand. The city council has since doubled down and claimed this could deter anti-social behaviour. Is 'Hot Potato' really the best deterrent?
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NZ First managed to earn themselves an important slot in Parliament after National and ACT lost their majority.
National dropped two seats from 50 on election night to 48, while ACT remained on 11 after the special votes were counted- meaning another 3 seats will be needed to form a Government.
NZ Herald political editor Claire Trevett says the three parties will likely clash on several key areas as coalition talks get underway.
"The tricky area could be around race relations, in which they all basically oppose co-governance- but ACT wants that referendum on the treaty, National thinks it would be very divisive and New Zealand First has gone against co-Governance."
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The economy was a significant talking point this election- and remains one of the biggest issues the incoming Government is expected to sort out.
The special votes have been counted, meaning National and ACT will need NZ First to form a Government after National lost two seats.
Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen says the three parties have a shared goal to bring down public spending, but there are other areas they disagree on.
"Something like the likes of the age of superannuation is an area where there's a lot more division on. Both National and ACT want to raise the age of eligibility, NZ First wants to keep it where it is."
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The special votes are in and officially point to a National-ACT-NZ First coalition.
They all ran on a similar election promise of turning the country around, including how they pledged to save the economy.
But what could this all mean for businesses?
Business commentator Rod Oram joined Andrew Dickens.
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National's campaign chair has clarified his earlier warnings of a second election.
The final vote count reveals National's dropped two seats to 48, which means it no longer has a majority with ACT's 11 and will need New Zealand First.
During the campaign Chris Bishop cautioned voters could be sent back to the polls if the three parties couldn't come to an arrangement.
Today he told Andrew Dickens that was only one scenario.
“As things have turned out, there have been really productive and constructive conversations between New Zealand First and National, and also between National and ACT, and so that is not a possibility.”
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Labour's Rachel Boyack says she's delighted with the final count result for her Nelson seat, but acknowledges it’s a small margin.
On the official count, she leapfrogged National's Blair Cameron, to win the seat by 29 votes.
Boyack told Andrew Dickens she's received notification from her National opponent he'll seek a recount for the Nelson seat.
“My expectation is that’ll happen reasonably quickly, and I’m still very hopeful I will retain the seat.”
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Labour will be a “formidable opposition” as they work to “win back the confidence of more New Zealanders” over the next term, leader Chris Hipkins says.
The party will have 34 of the expected 123 seats in Parliament over the next three years.
Hipkins said he felt Labour had picked up some momentum over the campaign, as evidenced by on-the-day versus advance voting results. But the special votes appeared to reflect the advance voting.
“Labour has been sent a message and we have heard it. We will be working hard to rebuild support over the next three years and continue to stand up for working people, children and the environment,” Hipkins said.
“While Labour governed during an incredibly challenging time for New Zealand, progress was being made. We can’t let that go to waste.”
Hipkins said the party’s economic management was seeing the economy turn a corner with inflation and food prices coming down, low unemployment and growing wages. The former Government also made inroads in climate change and child poverty, he said.
He said the party would hold the expected coalition partners National, Act and New Zealand First to account and “stand up for working people, our children and the environment”.
“The incoming Government made big promises during the campaign and made it very clear to New Zealanders that they will deliver on all of them. This includes tax cuts of $250 per fortnight for many families, significant reductions in crime, greater numbers of frontline health workers and a free trade deal with India.
”We will be holding them to account for these promises but will also remain vigilant against any policies that hurt working families, our economy and the environment.”
Hipkins said the final results meant Labour had lost senior and new MPs who worked hard for New Zealand and New Zealanders, although he believed it was likely there would be a recount in some seats.
”I want to personally thank those MPs and their families, who have given so much to the country and to the Labour Party. Thank you for working hard to make a difference for your communities and for New Zealand,” he said.
He said he had a brief conversation with Peeni Henare, who lost by four votes, and he fully supported him if he wanted to call for a recount given the slim margin.
Hipkins said there was some “clear vote-splitting” in the Māori electorates, with voters opting to give Labour their party vote and Te Pāti Māori their electorate vote.
On safe Labour seats being flipped or held by slim margins, Hipkins said he felt Labour had to reflect in particular on its loss of support in Auckland.
He said the party’s research showed they lost a lot of support at the end of the Auckland Covid lockdown and had not regained it.
Hipkins assured New Zealanders they still had “great talent and experience” in their team, including a number of former ministers, and they planned to work hard.
”It has been an absolute privilege to serve as prime minister, and I’d like to offer my warmest thanks to everyone who supported me, and our Government over the past six years,” Hipkins said.
On his future as leader of the party, he said he still had a “bit of fight left in me” and was “absolutely committed to the Labour Party”.
He said he had not yet had the chance to seek feedback from colleagues if they would continue to support him but he would continue to “do right” by the Labour Party.
Hipkins said Labour would remain the caretaker Government for as long as it took for National, Act and NZ First to hammer out a coalition agreement.
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David Seymour says he's confident he will be able to work alongside Winston Peters.
The final special votes count has confirmed National and ACT will need NZ First to form a government.
He says he has reached out to the New Zealand First leader but hasn't heard back yet.
Seymour told Andrew Dickens they will need to put aside their differences.
“This is a relationship that’s gonna work basically because the voters are keen and green in any election – they have asked us to work together and that we will do.”
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Last Monday when I was hosting afternoon talkback I got a pithy little text that said "We've got rid of the clownshow and here comes the 3-ring circus."
It's pretty funny because it's pretty true and it's happened.
The counting of the special votes has confirmed that Luxon and Seymour need Winston and as we all know Seymour and Peters are not BEST friends. Critics warn of a conservative coalition of chaos. That won't be so but only if it's a coalition of compromise.
It could be worse. Labour, the Greens, New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori together have 63 seats. In a parliament of 123, that means they could have theoretically stolen the election. So thank Chris Hipkins for ruling Winston Peters out before the election.
Now the horse-trading begins and the fight for influence between ACT and New Zealand First and the question exists as to who National will owe more to. The larger party, ACT, or the smaller party, New Zealand First, that gives them the final vital votes to form the government.
It's the age-old question of coalitions — the saga of the tail and the dog.
Meanwhile, the special votes have no good news for Labour. The final upshot is that just 26.9 per cent of New Zealand voted for the party. A sad result after over 50 per cent supported the party a short 3 years ago.
The ultimate sign of the disaffection is Mt Albert where Helen White has held on but with an even smaller majority than on election night. In 2020 the majority was 20 thousand votes. Now it's just 20. A brutal swing which shows the verdict on the party, the policies and the candidate. There is no way that Helen can continue to say she's done well.
And despite all the concessions Labour made to their Māori caucus and the policies that gave many New Zealanders conniptions, Māori have turned around and given their seats to Te Pāti Māori. The ultimate snub was to Labour's deputy leader Kelvin Davis, who has lost his seat. And if he's true to his word then he'll have to resign. Which can I say might be a blessing for Labour as it tries to rebuild.
So here we are with a parliament of 122 seats about to become 123 under the bizarre vagaries of MMP. Certainly, if we had First past the Post this would have been a more clearcut process of government formation. But we don't.
We have what we have and it's now over to our political leaders to show the maturity to stitch together a stable government to lead us through a period of time that becomes more complicated as time goes by.
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National will need New Zealand First's Winston Peters alongside Act's 11 seats to form a government after the special votes come in.
National has lost two seats, taking its 50 seats down to 48.
Labour's Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford avoided being another victim of the so-called "bluenami", holding onto his seat by just 131 votes.
Labour's Rachel Boyack also clawed back Nelson by 29 votes, while its Mt Albert candidate Helen White managed to hold on to her seat by just 20 votes.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says some of the seats were even closer to the wire.
He told James Daniels and Tyler Adams Te Pati Maori's Takutai Tarsh Kemp won the Tamaki Makaurau seat by a razor-thin margin.
“And she won it by a majority of just four votes. Not 40, not 400, just four votes. I mean it’s incredibly thin.”
The Maori Party took two seats from Labour - Tamaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau.
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Political Commentator Josie Pagani and Wellington columnist Dave Armstrong join Nick Mills for Friday Faceoff.
Together they discuss their predictions ahead of the special votes being counted, whether Oranga Tamariki is failing, Lewis Clareburt leaving Wellington for good, Mayor Tory Whanau moving forward with Golden Mile contracts, and her meeting with Reading Cinemas.
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Am I weird to be excited?
As of this afternoon we will have a Government. Sort of.
We will know the final vote. Yet again, there will be the questions around the timeframe, and how refreshing it was to hear Chris Luxon on the show this week promising to upend how it all works.
In part, that is why I am sort of excited. At last we get to get things underway. The workload to sort this country is gargantuan and three weeks is wasted time.
The first real test will be the formation of the Government.
How long will that take after this afternoon? The clue there is what they have been doing for three weeks, how much progress has been made and how set to go they are.
Presumably there are working scenarios, depending on today's numbers, as to how the final look shakes down. But a good sign would be that the basis of it is already in place.
By the way, Winston Peters will be involved whether he is technically needed or not, and that is no bad thing from a strategic point of view.
The other good indicator we have had this week around us being excited was the business confidence survey. It was a massive lift and for no specific reason other than the election. That is the power of expectation for you.
A lot of this country is placing a lot of faith and hope on a Government that has the "wherewithal" to take the mess they have inherited and do something positive about it.
That, in the end, is the great challenge, isn't it? In a way, it's make or break.
Gone are the days of National and Labour being interchangeable. Labour of 2020-2023 were dangerous ideologues who ran rampant, and the damage is there for all to see.
26% of the vote is their return for the arrogance of it.
The new Government will get a honeymoon. But before they know it we will expect returns and we will expect to see things that were promised. From gangs, to the Maorification obsession, to the big policy stuff like fair pay agreements and 90 day trials.
Then there's the tax cuts, the trimming of waste and the cutting of spending.
The upside of having much to do is you can hoe in. The downside is the risk that it takes too long to materially change and the electorate grows impatient, and that's before you get to the trickiness of having three parties working together in a way that looks cohesive.
MMP ain’t flash at that.
But for now, at last it is on.
New Government, new day.
New hope.
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THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Friday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) Can You Contain Yourself?/Mark the Week/Boo to Progress/Young People These Days
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Former cabinet minister Steven Joyce told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking that he expects National to lose two seats.
“The advanced vote was as high as 41-42% for National, but on the day, it was 36-37%,” he said.
“Let’s say the special largely reflects what happened on the day, they may lose a couple of seats.“
“However, if the specials include a lot of advanced voting, then it could be better for National.”
Joyce said he expects the international votes to break for the party as there was a lot of anger about New Zealanders being shut out of the country.
When asked if he thinks a government could be in place by next week, Joyce said that will largely depend on Winston.
“Seymour will be enthusiastic to get started, but Winston won’t mind a few days either way,” he said.
Joyce said Peters will want to be seen as constructive.
“At this stage, he doesn’t have too many cards to play.”
“His other alternative is to sit on the cross benches and vote against the government on a regular basis, which will be tool in which the public will get more and more frustrated with him.”
He said people shouldn’t bet the house on having a government formed next week.
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The future shape of our next government all comes out today.
While the preliminary votes for the election were all counted up, the results of the around 570 thousand left over special votes will be released at two this afternoon.
It will likely decide whether National and ACT will need New Zealand First to get into power.
Political Editor Jason Walls told Tim Dower that the majority of special votes do tend to favour the left.
He says people like John Key and Chris Bishop both expect to see National lose at least one seat today.
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Tonight on The Huddle- Sam Johnson, Projects Director at Still and Capital director Neale Jones joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
MPI has ordered 'brain drink' creators Ārepa to publish a notice saying some of its claimed health and performance benefits are unsubstantiated. Is this marketing misleading- or should consumers have known better?
A search is underway at Erin Patterson's house in Victoria months after she cooked a deadly mushroom meal for her family. Patterson has been arrested- what happens next? Is there any way she can get a fair trial?
The public service costs have continued to increase- up 4.5 percent on last year. The average annual salary for a public servant is $92,000- Will this probably reinforce the incoming Government's view that a trim is needed?
Tomorrow's final election results are in- how do we think this will play out?
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The incoming National-led Government will soon have to make headway on their plans for the economy.
The sector has already reported increased confidence, with data from Auckland's Business Chamber showing confidence levels are up 11 percentage points from before the election.
NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann says the incoming Government will want to begin by clearing up the short-term economic issues.
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The nervous wait is almost over for a number of MPs on the cusp of losing their spot in Parliament.
The much-anticipated final results - including special votes - will be released tomorrow at 2pm.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says a lot's riding on the last 570,000 votes to be counted.
"On current numbers, National and ACT can form a slim majority. But it's likely the centre-right bloc will lose at least one or two seats- that means they'll need NZ First to form a Government."
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This time tomorrow, we will know exactly what we voted for on the 14th of October.
The release of the final voting figures will indicate exactly how many seats each party has, and how they can then be part of a coalition, and what the proportion is- and whether they can govern the country or not.
To be honest, I had to ask my co-workers what date the election was on, because it felt so long ago. And the reason for that is because it's been over three weeks since October 14th.
The length between the election and the counting of the votes has upset many people, including Christopher Luxon. Yesterday, he spoke to Mike Hosking, today he was talking about it in his stand-up.
Yesterday, he said he needs to review the electoral law to find out why it takes so long- and perhaps make some changes.
That electorate law, by the way? It's had a lot of changes that have been proposed, he's going to also have to look at the independent electoral review, which suggests all sorts of other changes- like a four year term and a lowering of the electoral threshold. There's a bit of work there.
Those two ideas sound good to me- but you know what? I actually don't have a problem with how long it has taken to confirm this election result.
I know roughly who's going to be leading the Government, I know what their policies are, I know what they're going to have to do to make them happen, I know what they want to do within the first 100 days.
Do I need to know what the exact number is today, or yesterday, or a week ago- or on Friday afternoon? Not really.
I know other places are quicker, and I know we're a small country. But as we learnt from the last election in America, this is not a thing that can be done wrong or have the implication that it might be done wrong.
In New Zealand, we don't do elections wrong.
And I actually think we've also enjoyed the three-week break from all the sniping and belly-aching and name-calling that oppositional politics delivers.
But here's the thing, in this vacuum we have had, all sorts of rumours spring up. And I think I've seen this all over social media.
Some hard-lefties are positive that the half-million special votes are going to the left bloc, which will change the shape of the election. Some people's loyalties strike them blind.
I've seen some people reckon that New Zealand First's vote will go up, meaning that Winston will be Luxon's right-hand man- not David Seymour.
They reckon that Luxon would enjoy the easier ride with Winston, because - be sure of it - Seymour's going to be tough on Luxon's inherent centrism, which he can't hide no matter how much he protests.
Whatever, we don't know. We will know, for certain, without debate- at 2pm tomorrow.
Tomorrow is going to be great, we're going to start forming a Government after all.
And given that Christopher Luxon, over the last two days, has been so impatient about the result of this election- I think it's obvious he must be willing to wheel and deal at pace.
And then we can start working and moving forward, rather than standing still.
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So tomorrow we finally —after such a ridiculously long wait— get the final vote count.
Specials will be done, duplicates checked, ballots finalized, we will know where we’re at, and more importantly, what form the new government might take.
The fact we’ve had three weeks in limbo is completely ludicrous and at least the incoming PM has acknowledged that and claims he’ll do something about changing it. Which as far as I understand involves changing the law and the way the electoral commission operates, and I hope they do that.
The electoral commission did not cover itself in glory: botching some people’s booth experiences by not having enough forms, closing early or opening late, not getting easy vote packs out in good enough time for early voting, and generally operating like it’s 1953. Even Luxon said that three weeks is too long, that they should be working 24/7 to count votes. He also reckons they should do a daily release of votes counted and take over local government elections so they’re up to speed a year before general elections. The main thing is he wants the vote counting sped up, so let’s hope he makes that happen.
As for the new government and how that looks... he seems confident they’re on track for a swift and seamless transition with good faith and goodwill from all parties. Actually, someone —who will remain nameless— in this newsroom had a bet that a new coalition government would be announced and formed all set to go Friday arvo. That overly ambitious idea was smacked down by Luxon himself who said that there’ll be no government announced Friday arvo.
Good news – they’re closer to an actual government than they were a week ago. Bad news – not so close that it’ll be wrapped up by tomorrow afternoon. Luxon said they still have issues they’re working through and things to be agreed on, but they’ve been working diligently in good faith for a strong stable government, and he says progress is being made.
So how long?
Luxon says no timeframe exactly – but there are good intentions not to draw it out. Maybe next week? Who knows. Even Winston though, claims it’ll be quick. Can we trust anything Winston says?
Having said that, you have to hand it to them all, not a peep out of them. No one’s broken ranks, no one’s leaked, no one’s spilled the beans. Luxon has to be congratulated for consolidating everyone together in a way that seems clean and tight. Winston hasn’t been playing it out in public, Seymour has kept his cool, it all seems, so far, tickety boo.
If they can keep it that way, they’ll manage to prove all the naysayers wrong. Every person who said it would implode and that it'd be a cluster and they’d all be at war with each other... so far, so good. None of that.
The true test is if Luxon can keep it that way – if he can, he’ll be seen as a genius. I mean who’d want to wrangle Winston and David Seymour on a daily basis? Not me. Best case scenario, they don’t need Winston, and NZ First can just stay out of the fray altogether. Worst case, he’s in and he goes nuts wreaking havoc and making it all about himself and the whole thing implodes. That would be disastrous not just for Luxon, but also for our country.
So fingers crossed tomorrow goes their way and it’s a clean two party Nats/ACT deal and they can get on with some governing. If not, get out the popcorn.
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Labour Minister Ginny Anderson and National's finance spokesperson Nicola Willis join Nick Mills ahead of special votes being counted.
Throughout the hour the pair exchange jibes over coalition negotiations, National's fiscal plan, new specialist wait time figures, and the Let's Get Wellington Moving transport project.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Ali Jones from Red PR and Jordan Williams from the Taxpayers' Union joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Former Act MP and Minister Heather Roy wants a ban on public reporting of polls during the voting period because it influences undecided voters. Is this true? Can polls really sway the choices of voters?
New research has revealed the number of Kiwi vegans has dropped in recent months, with only three percent identifying as vegan compared to last year's five percent? Why are people making the switch? Have increased food prices driven these numbers down?
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A former ACT MP suggests political polls should be banned once voting opens up during an election campaign.
Heather Roy argues that polls have the potential to influence undecided voters during an election period- which doesn't mesh with the strict rules against advertising on election day.
She says New Zealand would have fairer and more democratic elections if polls were banned once voting began.
"With this election particularly, we just had poll after poll in the two weeks while people were voting- politicians aren't quite sure if they're talking to people who have already voted or are about to vote. I think there just needs to be a rationalisation and some consistency around the rules."
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Tonight on The Huddle, current affairs commentator Josie Pagani and Kiwiblog founder and Curia pollster David Farrar joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
The Rugby World Cup has finally come to an end- with South Africa narrowly beating out New Zealand to take home the title. What did we think of the result? Was this a fair victory? Have TMOs gone too far?
Online grocery startup Supie has gone into voluntary administration after two years of operation. Are we sad to see this development? Does the supermarket duopoly need competition- or regulation?
Winston Peters has spoken out and given his first post-election interview. He won't give much away, but expressed interest in getting negotiations wrapped up quickly. What's his goal here?
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National's deputy leader won't put a timeframe on how quickly a new Government will form after the final results are in.
The party holds the slimmest of majorities if it partners with ACT - but there's still some half-a-million-special ballots to be counted.
The official election figures are due out on Friday, and could see the pair needing New Zealand First.
Nicola Willis says she knows New Zealanders want them to get on with it.
"There's a big job ahead of us to turn the economy around and get things back on track, so we'll be trying to do that in a responsible way- as efficiently as possible."
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Winston Peters has accused the media of having warped priorities.
Speaking to The Platform this morning, he took aim at the coverage New Zealand First received on the campaign trail.
He says it seemed sausage rolls were more important than public meetings, and standing on the side of the road waving banners was a substitute for policies.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Winston Peters is concerned about establishing a Government as soon as possible.
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Is Winston Peters senile or cynical?
Political commentator Matthew Hooton explains why Peters is unfit to be in government. Plus, Dr Paul G. Buchanan joins us to give his insight on Israel-Hamas war and why there might be no end in sight.
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This is my first ZB shift since the election brought in our new Government-to-be.
And I must say it’s been the most fantastic fortnight, until we lost the Rugby World Cup final due to first half sloppiness and a trigger-happy TMO.
But we had our chances. We can’t complain. You have to play to the rules.
But really, it’s been 2 weeks of calm and confidence and a feeling of recovery and renewal after the election
Business Confidence went from a number in the 20s to a number in the 50s overnight.
Inflation came in in the 5s, despite most expectations being half a percent higher.
Credit agencies said we’re in ok shape and didn’t make our borrowing more expensive.
New Zealand came in 4th in a global tax competitiveness survey.
The real estate section in the paper suddenly doubled in size. Real estate agents starting calling telling me to invest now, because the property market is about to explode.
I even felt that crime has stopped. Just like that. Until I checked and saw there has been a ram raid. In Waihi Beach at 3.40am. 4 perps captured by police. Suddenly the cops are tough on crime.
And suddenly I realised what had changed- nothing.
What was different was no chorus of wet and whingy commentators and politicians telling anyone who was listening that this country was wrecked.
You know the mantra:
“The second to last economy in the world. Heading towards Venezuela. A crime rate to rival the most lawless areas of the world. The last bastion of communist dictatorship in the western world. Our children’s children’s children will be paying for this Government’s 6 years in charge”
It is such a relief not to hear the doomsayers yelling with their megaphones into a dark and depressing echo chamber, every day. Trying to convince us that only they know the answers and New Zealanders wouldn’t know success if it slapped us in the face and said congratulations.
I’ve always said that the country was not doing nearly as well as Labour thought it was, but it’s also not nearly as bad as National would like to have you believe.
We’ve been talked out of our mojo.
It reminds you to always be wary of politicians and their slogans. They don’t seek a legacy. Just your vote so they’ve got a job for 3 years.
So enjoy the respite from criticism of this country, because it won’t last. As soon as the specials are counted we’ll back to the race to the bottom.
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One prospective Cabinet minister appears to have learned from his predecessor's mistakes.
Senior National MP Chris Bishop has sold his shares in Kiwi Income Property and plans to sell off his further shares in Paysauce Ltd, Telstra and Parrotdog.
Former National MP Steven Joyce disagrees that ministers should have to sell their shares once they get into office.
"You keep lifting the bar higher and higher in terms of what people can't do while they're a politician- which makes it less attractive for people. In principle- the Cabinet manual makes it clear people can do things in their private capacity."
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Peter Dunne is someone I really respect because he’s emerged from a life inside politics to remain an engaged and informed observer on the outside.
He makes a lot of sense, which is why I love having him on this show. He recently gave an interview where he talked about the fact we shouldn’t have to wait this long for election results.
I agree.
I’m sure most of us do. I mean we voted for a system like MMP which is not that clear cut so that parts on us, but surely the mechanism for counting special votes can be sped up. As it stands, special votes have to be sent back to their electorates. That’s your first hold up. Secondly they’re counted manually. They’re also taking all this time to scrutinize the roll, check for any duplication of votes, recount votes... and bear in mind there are around 567 thousand special votes apparently this year.
But Peter Dunne says we need to speed it up.
He said, “the votes need to be transmitted back to the electorates, they should be counted much more quickly and then those results declared within days.” So days, not weeks, and I agree.
Could they do it? An overhaul of how the electoral commission operates would be needed, and I actually think that’s not a bad thing. I mean on the face of it, the electoral commission seems an antiquated cumbersome old system. Too much paperwork, easy vote cards and voting packs having to be sent out to every letterbox, which were in many cases too slow to get out anyway, and as it turns out you don’t even really need them. A wacky rule around when a candidate dies in terms of adding a seat to create a potential overhang and having to go through a costly by election. Crazy.
But all of this dilly dallying and waiting three weeks means we wait almost a month after voting to get a government formed. All that time of limbo and nothing happening. All that time of a new government ready to get going and sink their teeth in and make some changes but can’t until it knows what shape it’s taking, and crucially, who’s in it.
It actually puts us all back if you think about it. If you factor in that three quarters of the country wanted a change of direction, then that’s three quarters of us stuck going nowhere. Which means the country is going nowhere.
I guess the alternatives would have to be soundly tested though – I mean automatic vote counting machines like in the US could be considered dodgy by some, so however the system changed it would have to get buy in. But surely not sending votes back to their electorates would be one easy fix to speed things up. That seems OTT.
Because it’s not just getting on with it to appease our curiosity as to what formation the next government will take – ie, with or without Winston, but also what decisions need to be made, what changes are coming. Whether the new government has time to enact much before Christmas. Can they get a new mini budget up? Can they get going on their first 100 days list? Can they push through the reforms they want to push through?
Starting a new government about 8 weeks out from Christmas doesn’t leave much time to kick into gear, and as far as I can gather, we’re all pretty keen for change to kick into gear, sooner rather than later.
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Politicians from opposing sides want special votes to be counted more quickly.
Special votes and the final election result will be released in nine days, giving the final makeup of Parliament.
National and ACT can govern alone on current numbers, but those may change once November 3rd comes around.
Labour's Megan Woods told Mike Hosking that she doesn't see how allowing people to enrol on the day adds a week to counting specials.
National's Mark Mitchell agrees.
He said the Justice Committee will conduct an electoral review.
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Christopher Luxon has agreed coalition documents should be made public.
Special vote results get released on Friday week, showing the final make-up of MPs after the election.
Luxon wants vote-counting to be faster than that.
ACT's David Seymour says he has no problem making the coalition agreement public.
Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told Mike Hosking that he's wanting to work with both parties and progress conversations.
He says they're very supportive of making it available, so people can understand the commitments they have made.
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Christopher Luxon's staying tight lipped about coalition discussions.
Meanwhile, ACT's David Seymour says he's happy to make the coalition agreement public once it's been struck.
Arrangements in 2017 weren't made public by Jacinda Ardern, with the Chief Ombudsman ruling details couldn't be requested under the Official Information Act as it came within her capacity as Labour leader.
Former National Health Minister Jonathan Coleman told Kate Hawkesby that historically, it's always happened behind closed doors.
He says negotiations are always kept private, and even in retrospect no one really knows what went on and why things were negotiated.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and Tim Wilson from Maxim Institute joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Sir Wayne Smith predicts new rule changes will be implemented in rugby, with permissible tackle height being lowered to belly-button level. Are the rugby rules too complicated? Are tackles below the belly button the way of the future?
David Seymour wants to make the coalition agreement public, Luxon says he'd be open to it. Do we think Winston would too? Is transparency the way to go when it comes to the coalition?
A piece from Thomas Coughlan indicated David Parker could become the next Labour leader- what do we think of this? What does Labour need?
Residents of Auckland's Ōrākei and Eastern Bay are protesting against McDonald's opening another restaurant in their neighbourhood. Should communities have a say against junk food?
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The Prime Minister-elect's leaving the door open to revealing details of a coalition deal.
Arrangements in 2017 weren't publicly released, because the Chief Ombudsman ruled details couldn't be requested under the OIA- because it came within Jacinda Ardern's capacity as Labour leader.
ACT's David Seymour is in coalition talks with National and says he'd be happy for his promises to be made public.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Seymour is quite transparent as a politician- and he'd want to see which of ACT's proposals made it through.
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David Seymour says he sees no reason why a potential coalition deal shouldn't be made public.
Arrangements in 2017 weren't publicly released, when the Chief Ombudsman ruled details couldn't be requested under the Official Information Act - because it came within Jacinda Ardern's capacity as Labour leader.
But ACT Party leader Seymour says he'd be happy for this year's finalised arrangement to be in the open.
"We're really happy with the way it's going, I mean, we've been chatting through the different challenges that we think the Government will face."
Prime Minister-Elect Chris Luxon isn't ruling out it out.
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Phone calls and negotiations behind the scenes, as National and ACT look set to form the next Government.
With the special votes yet to confirm the make-up of the Beehive, both parties are likely to need New Zealand First in a three-way majority arrangement.
Former National MP Steven Joyce, was part of talks in 2017, when Winston Peters eventually sided with Labour and Jacinda Ardern.
He says it's a different situation now, as Peters had to choose between two parties, while this time Labour's already conceded.
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This week on Politics Central, Steven Joyce weighs in on the key challenges impacting Luxon and National in forming a Government, particularly in negations with their coalition partners.
Later, Professor Robert Patman provides an update on the Israel-Gaza war and how the US can navigate its involvement.
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This week on the Sunday Panel, Capital Director Ben Thomas and journalist, editor and author Jo McCarroll joined in on a discussion about the following topics- and more!
The All Blacks have made it to the World Cup final- did we back them early on? If they win, where does that leave Ian Foster- should he expect a knighthood?
The gangs have come out against National's proposed crackdown- will these polices work in practice? Will the gangs turn to getting more face tattoos if patches are banned?
Where does Labour go from here? How long should they hang on to Chris Hipkins? Andrew Little has stepped down this week- who else will follow?
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National's Chris Luxon has kept coalition talks under lock and key following last week's election result.
The Nats and ACT have a slim majority, but it's likely NZ First will be needed in a three-way majority arrangement once special votes are counted.
NZ Herald deputy political editor Thomas Coughlan says these three parties will want to get a clear arrangement in writing before the special votes are confirmed.
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PR Specialist and former Labour Chief of Staff Neale Jones and former Wellington Mayor Dame Kerry Prendergast join Nick Mills on the Friday Faceoff.
This week they discuss the 2023 Election results, whether Chris Hipkins should stay on as leader, plans for a charity hospital in Wellington being derailed, and tensions at the Wellington City Council reaching boiling point.
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Today John MacDonald spoke to Labour's new Christchurch East MP, Reuben Davidson, and National's Matt Doocey on Politics Friday.
They discussed the election result and coalition agreements. Plus. what is wrong with our justice system when we see so many offenders getting granted home detention and early parole?
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Chris Luxon has confirmed his National-led government isn't keen on Auckland's Light Rail project.
The incoming Prime Minister labelled the project a 'white elephant' and said the billions spent could be better put towards other transport priorities.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Luxon has been consistent about scrapping Light Rail from the beginning of the campaign.
"If he had turned around and said- we're going to go ahead with this, he would have had a mutiny on his hands led by Simeon Brown."
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and Infrastructure NZ Chief Executive Nick Leggett joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
A hospital in Gaza is the latest to have been hit by bombs, with about 500 feared dead. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has turned from bad to catastrophic - has Israel gone too far now, is the situation in Gaza too dire?
Winston Peters has touched down in Wellington, and has refused to answer questions from the media. Should Christopher Luxon do the same, rather than defend each day why he's not talking about the negotiations?
An investigation into the Ranfurly Shield accident has found that it really was dropped, but NZ Rugby couldn't confirm what the white substance was. Do we believe any of this?
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NZ First leader Winston Peters has touched down in Wellington, ahead of negotiation talks with National and ACT.
There were cheers from onlookers outside the airport as he arrived- but Peters stayed quiet, despite being peppered with questions by journalists.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says it's unlikely Winston Peters will directly address media as coalition discussions get started- and journalists will have to get creative in sourcing explanations.
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The election result looks to have lit a fire under the property market.
Real estate agents in Wellington say business has picked up since the 'blue wave' crashed through.
National and ACT have both promised to phase in interest deductibility for landlords and make it easier for banks to lend money.
City Sales sales manager Scott Dunn says people saw a change of Government coming.
He says Auckland's market picked up about three weeks ago.
"Our change happened about two or three weeks ago, we've had to double our auction offerings from the demand. From here until the end of the year, it's very, very busy."
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With the election over (apart from half a million votes still to be counted), we look at how the country can encourage a more positive approach to economic recovery.
“Commerce beats politics, every time.”
This quote comes from our guest, Earl Rattray, prominent businessman and lifetime participant in the dairy industry.
We look at a different perspective on the Middle East, from Barry Brownstein “Why Civilisation is at Stake”.
And we visit The Mailroom with Mrs Producer.
File your comments and complaints at Leighton@newstalkzb.co.nz
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Labour's Ginny Andersen and National's Mark Mitchell joined Mike Hosking to take a look at the election result and how the next few weeks will play out.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Kiwiblog contributor and Curia pollster David Farrar and current affairs commentator Josie Pagani joined in on a discussion about the issues of the day- and more!
Andrew Little announced his decision to bow out of politics- will any other big Labour names join him?
Chris Hipkins says he's going to hang on and keep leading Labour for the time being- how long will he last? Who else could take over? Does Labour understand what went wrong on Saturday?
Chris Luxon has faced a barrage of questions about his coalition negotiations- are we being impatient?
Christchurch's mayor has warned his council is 'up a creek' financially and may have to face massive rate rises- or make hard choices. Do councils need to find new ways to raise more money some other way? What role does Government have?
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New Zealand's farming community are feeling hopeful about the new changes in Government.
While the nation's 54th Parliament won't be finalised until November, several prospective MPs from National and ACT have backgrounds in the primary sector.
Grant McCallum, Suze Redmayne, Miles Anderson, Mike Butterick, Andrew Hoggard and Cameron Luxton are among the new faces bringing their rural backgrounds and insight into the Beehive.
The Country's Rowena Duncum says Kiwi farmers will be feeling a weight lift off their shoulders as more rural voices step in.
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Christopher Luxon has been batting off questions about National's ongoing coalition discussions.
The incoming Prime Minister has confirmed he'll remain tight-lipped as National negotiates with ACT and NZ First as the special votes are still tallied.
BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie says Luxon's trying to establish a style of leadership where his team gets things done- as opposed to discussing plans.
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Chris Hipkins says he's still the leader of the Labour Party.
He delivered the impassioned message after a marathon caucus meeting with new and current MPs.
He's confirmed there was no leadership challenge, but the team will hold a vote within three months of the election.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Labour doesn't know the makeup of their future caucus yet- and there's still time for the Party and Hipkins to reassess their options.
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Mount Albert's Greens candidate says the narrow margin in the seat shows elections are no longer two-horse races.
Labour's Helen White has won on early numbers by just over 100 votes.
It's traditionally a Labour stronghold, previously held by Jacinda Ardern, David Shearer, Helen Clark - and Michael Savage.
White's blaming her slim-win on the Greens splitting the vote.
Ricardo Menendez-March says his Party's proud of its record result.
"No one, not the Greens, not National or Labour, can take any electorate for granted."
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Former Labour Leader Andrew Little says he's thinking of the Party and its future as he quits politics.
He says it's important those who'll form the next Labour Government get the chance to be nurtured and developed.
Little says he doesn't believe people should hang on too long.
"I feel very privileged to have been in the roles that I've been in and to have done what I've done, but I'm also at an age where I could do some other things outside of Parliament- and I'm very keen to explore that."
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Chris Hipkins is staying on as the leader of the Labour Party- for now.
Which I think is the right thing for Labour, and I'll explain why. But first, I'll get you across what has happened.
They made the call today in a nearly two-hour caucus meeting. It was supposed to wrap up at 2pm this afternoon, but it ran all the way until quarter past 3.
Clearly there was more to discuss than they thought. It could be that they were debating what to do with the leadership, could be that some people were cross in there- or it could just be something as simple as taking longer to farewell their departing colleagues, who knows.
But when he emerged, the faces were drawn. People were not happy, they were looking really sad. And he emerged without a full-throated endorsement of his caucus.
Basically, they haven't decided that they actually like him, they've just deferred making a decision to another day. They did not hold a vote today, there wasn't a challenge today, they've decided to leave it until after the special votes are counted and they know their full caucus.
It doesn't sound like the Labour caucus are all stoked with Chippy. There are multiple reports already that say there are Labour MPs who blame him for the result on Saturday night, because he made the calls on things like ruling out a wealth tax, they think that lost them the election.
And he definitely didn't bring all of his energy at the start. One insider has reportedly described him as 'f***ing useless'.
Having said all that- they made the right call to leave him in the job.
Because they don't need the next Prime Minister in that job right now, they need someone who can do opposition well.
They need someone who can have a crack at the Nats and ACT in Question Time, who can run a good attack line through the media, who knows how opposition works, who knows how to run a team.
Chris Hipkins can do all of these things. There are others in there, like Grant Robertson, who can do them as well, if not better- but they are on their way out.
They're clearly going to leave, and they need some senior experience. Chris Hipkins brings that.
The Labour Party rules require that they do make a decision in three months from now. Even then, it might be too early to toss Chris Hipkins out because leadership battles are ugly.
And I reckon they might just need time to steady the ship and recover from the trauma of what happened on Saturday night to actually think straight and make a call.
Chippy's clearly not their next Prime Minister- but for now, he's the right leader.
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As the Labour party, still technically the Government of course, gather in Wellington to do that time-honoured thing of all losers, which is some soul searching, the trick is not to say you are doing it, but to actually do it.
The trouble, as we have discovered these past three years, is they don’t actually do anything except talk.
To search one's soul, one has to accept what has happened to you and take a level of blame. You have to see it's actually on you, it is your fault, and if you don’t want to repeat the exercise it needs to be different going forward.
I'm not sure they have the slightest idea how to do that.
Do you think, as Jacinda Ardern sits in Boston having wrecked the country and then scarpered for her own financial benefit, any of the carnage of Saturday night sits heavily with her?
Or do you think she could blabber out a couple of one-liners about there being no play book and we thought we are right and we tried our best?
As they gather in their offices this week and box up their three years worth of stuff, how many of them know in their heart of hearts they cocked it up in spectacular fashion?
Or how many of them still hold the broader contempt, so often on display, that we are basically not that bright, but fortunately they are, so if only we could be as good as them things would be different?
That is the fraud of soul searching. Very few people actually want to change and far less are actually capable of it.
The end of the Helen Clark era is no different to this one - they were arrogant and we got sick of it.
The last Labour Government that worked was David Lange's and even that only lasted one term before it blew up in their faces.
The reason it worked is because that was the Labour of old, the Mike Moore Labour, the Labour that reflected a hard-working country of working class New Zealanders, who aspired to graft and do well for themselves and all we wanted was opportunity.
The Clark/Ardern Labour Governments were about entitlement and race and laziness and crazed ideology. That view is shared by, comparatively, very few New Zealanders because it isn't who we are.
Labour will be back. Both major parties have won and lost and come back for more. But I don’t see this lot having the slightest intention of changing.
Worse for them, I don’t see enough talent left, once Grant Robertson and David Parker and whoever else quits, to even look like they know how to change.
It's two terms minimum in the wilderness.
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Chris Hipkins is set to make his first public appearance since Labour's election loss.
The party will farewell a huge number of outgoing MPs at their first caucus meeting this morning.
Political Editor, Jason Walls, told Mike Hosking that the media hasn't heard from the Labour leader over the past few days.
He says Hipkins has basically gone to ground after the election loss, but he will front media before caucus meets this morning.
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‘Jacinda was prepared to sell her grandmother”.. read the headline yesterday.
A statement made by Ron Mark when interviewed about how coalition negotiations have gone in the past with NZ First. Unfortunately, he went on to say in the article that not only was she ready to sell her grandmother, but she did.
Ouch.
What an indictment on an already unpopular leader. But it should serve as a warning to Luxon and co as they head into the rocky, murky waters, that is the negotiation of coalition deals. Hopefully they don’t feel they need to sell the grandparents.
Two other things to bear in mind: one, Winston’s’ a wily old dog, and two, Luxon is new to this politics game. I hope he’s flanked by enough political savvy to keep him from trying to flog the family jewels, but then again, he may not even need Winston. All the talk of the specials leaning left I don’t buy this time round. Remember, a lot of those specials are overseas voters – the very ones who got locked out, pinged in MIQ, missed funerals for loved ones, or scarpered overseas post the lockdowns, in disgust with where our country was going. The brain drainers... how do you reckon they’re voting?
Yes, the specials tend to lean left – as they have in the past, but this time round is different. This time who's to say they won’t go the way the rest of the votes have gone, a punishment for Labour? The Greens of course always pick up all the student votes, and they may pick up those disgruntled Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for National – but we wait, we watch, we hope for the best.
And when I say the best, I genuinely believe a two-party government beats a three-party one, purely because there are less moving parts. I said this before the election and I still believe it. And no, it’s not because I hate Winston, as some texters have accused me, I just don’t believe he adds value. He has pet projects he obsesses with: racing, provincial growth fund, superannuitants, but outside of that he seems to not really care. He's a lot of noise and grandstanding, not a lot of action. Although super gold card holders will disagree, they probably think he's the messiah. I’m just not sure NZ First voters this time will get what they wanted or hoped for, out of their vote for him – especially if he’s not even in government.
So a tricky time of negotiations ahead and I’m not sure how over it we all are in terms of being happy not to hear about any politics for 3 weeks while they sort it out, or desperate to be across every aspect as they go. I mean when Luxon says we’re not negotiating it through the media, that’s fair enough and I believe that’s his wish. But what if ACT or NZ First – if they’re involved, think differently? You’d like to think that with so much rhetoric around the grownups being back in charge, that they would actually all act like grownups, but we’ll see.
The temptation to use the media will loom large for anyone feeling disgruntled, but it will be a particular irony if that’s Winston given he’s so adept at shunning them and talking them down all the time. But you just know that if anyone's going to loop them in, leak, and play a negotiating game including them, it will be him. Oh the irony.
So a long three weeks ahead? Or we just don’t care? Let me know what you think.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Phil O'Reilly from Iron Duke Partners, Auckland Councillor Richard Hills and The Spinoff's Toby Manhire joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
National and ACT scored a slim majority in last weekend's election with 61 seats- and they may need NZ First's help after the extra special votes are tallied. Does Winston need to be included no matter how the numbers fall in the end?
Australia's Voice referendum failed, with all but one state voting no to changing the constitution to create an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. Could this have been planned better?
Is Chris Hipkins going to stick around as Labour's leader- or is he going to leave? What can we put Labour's collapse down to? And who is Toni?
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The election has finally wrapped up- and New Zealand is in for a change of leadership.
Chris Luxon is our new Prime Minister-elect and National and ACT are currently on 61 seats, with the final official result being declared on November 3.
NZME's Fran O'Sullivan says the nation's business community appreciates the change of leadership.
"People I've spoken with really expect to see clarity, they expect to see focus, momentum and importantly- execution. And that's where the previous Government stuffed up."
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Chris Luxon secured his role as Prime Minister- and now begins weeks of negotiation, compromise and coalition talks.
National and ACT have a slim right-wing majority of 61 seats, meaning they may need bolstering from NZ First if special votes move the dial.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Chris Luxon has warned media not to expect regular updates on how talks are progressing.
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Incoming and outgoing MPs have arrived in Wellington as National's Chris Luxon and ACT's David Seymour form the next Government.
Labour MPs have already begun handing over the reins and consulting National on future decisions- but no new policies will be implemented before November 3.
Jacinda Ardern's former Chief of Staff Mike Munro says the incoming MPs will be settling into their new roles- and no substantial decisions can be made yet.
"The situation in the Middle East- New Zealand's going to make decisions about evacuating people and it's really that sort of stuff rather than anything substantive related to the economy or anything."
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Signs of camaraderie as we transition from one Government to the next.
National's Finance spokesperson Nicola Willis says outgoing Finance Minister Grant Robertson has reached out to her.
She says Robertson told her he was happy to discuss any aspect of the finance role.
Willis says she appreciates that- and it's her intention to make some information requests of the Government over the next couple of weeks.
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A former New Zealand First MP says the Party will be driven by its manifesto, and protecting past coalition gains.
Incoming Prime Minister Chris Luxon is holding talks with potential partners, waiting for the final count on November 3.
It could mean National and ACT need NZ First to rule.
Now-Carterton Mayor, Ron Mark, says law and order and co-governance top the Party's list.
"These things fit perfectly with National-ACT's manifesto- but there's going to be stuff that they won't agree with that's on National and ACT's radar, which is tax cuts."
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I feel like we need to deal with the elephant in the room- Winston’s going to be part of this Government, isn’t he?
Nobody’s saying it out loud, but I think we can all see that it’s absolutely going to happen.
Take the cue from the fact that he was offered the Speaker’s job.
And as far as I can see, they’re going to need him because at the moment - assuming that they win the Port Waikato by-election – ACT and National look like they will have 62 seats out of 122 seats in Parliament.
That is not enough. Because if even one MP goes rogue, that means they only have 61 seats out of 122. What’s half of 122? 61- and that becomes a hung Parliament.
Effectively, they have actually only got one seat spare. And the thing is, MPs go rogue.
Gaurav Sharma, case in point. Or they misbehave like Kiri Allan or they quit like Jacinda Ardern. And if that happens too early in a term, you’re off to a by-election and then suddenly that one majority is under threat.
I would say that they almost certainly need Winston Peters and his caucus of 8, just to give them a bit of insurance and a bit of breathing room in case funny things happen.
It is possible that when the specials come in – that they could, in fact favour the Nats and ACT. It’s unlikely, but it could increase their majority and maybe drop that overhang down so they need less of a majority.
Even then, it’s tight and it’s unlikely. Chris Bishop himself has said that they’re actually expecting to lose at least one seat, which makes it more likely that they’ll need Winston.
Now the question is- will including Winston as insurance make the future Government more stable, or less stable than just going it alone?
I would say in answer to that question, counter-intuitively, including Winston actually makes everything more stable than just National and ACT. Because once Winston’s in there- he generally plays nicely once he’s inside the tent.
But a Government just one seat away from losing a majority is a Government that’s always at threat of somebody doing something funny.
Basically what it means is that every single MP in National and ACT gets to become a deal breaker on anything they care about.
All they have to do is threaten to walk away and the whole Government’s in trouble. They have too much leverage, too much threat in internal negotiations.
From what I can see, short of something majorly unexpected happening in favour of National and ACT- they’re going to need Winston.
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So the political party that didn’t know what it stood for anymore and offered no real future lost the election to the party that offered tax cuts that are affordable only by increasing taxes on the wealthy and then claim that we’re back on track.
I’d argue that New Zealand is confused.
How else can you explain a nation that just 3 years ago so gratefully gave a red tide to Labour and now switches to a blue tsunami after a thousand days?
I think the theme of the election is more that it was time for a change than getting back on track.
It’s been an horrific four years of pandemics, cyclones, floods, fires. On top of that some ineptitude as Labour gave us slogans rather than policies. Exactly what they criticise National for.
It was decades worth of angst in just six years so we changed the one thing we could.
So National get their turn.
But the wholesale switcheroos we’ve seen in the past two elections are not a good thing for the country.
When Labour took an outright majority in 2020 we lost some of our best National MPs. The retirement of senior MPs like Joyce and English took the wise rudders.
Now the same thing has happened to Labour.
The upshot is a parliament full of newbies on both sides with no real depth of experience and knowledge in governance.
And governance is not like regular business. If you don’t believe me read Stephen Joyce’s book about his experiences as a newly minted Transport Minister.
Yes Minister is a documentary not a comedy.
Such dramatic flip flops smacks of a lack of core belief and that a lot of us will vote for whoever offers us the most moolah in the back pocket.
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Rongotai's new MP has fronted up to media following the weekend's election result.
The Greens Julie Anne Genter won the Labour stronghold seat.
She explained to Nick Mills why she thinks she won.
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Greg O'Connor believes he's won the Ohariu electorate through his strong ground game.
Amongst a blue wave, the incumbent Labour MP beat National's Deputy Leader Nicola Willis in the seat over the weekend.
O'Connor thinks his omnipresence and determination got him over the line.
He says he's made a real effort to know the people of his electorate well during his six years in office.
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The weekend. Discuss.
No there's more than that isn’t there? What a weekend. I owe my texter Muz from Hawkes Bay a bottle of Pinot of his choice. He said that it would be a walkover, that it would be absolutely obvious that National would do well and that they would have partners to support them.
I thought the election would be a bit closer, a bit tighter. But ultimately, although it wasn't a complete rejection of the left, it was an absolute decimation of Labour. Not as bad as 2014, but jolly close, and with ramifications for years to come.
Those on the left who couldn't bring themselves to vote right went to the Greens. Some to TOP (TOP got the same amount of party vote as Te Pati Maori) but of course, they didn't get the electoral seat of Ilam, which they were hoping for. And Te Pati Maori did a fantastic job taking the Maori seats from Labour. The Greens did very well too, holding on to Auckland Central and winning Wellington Central, so it wasn't a complete rejection of the left.
What it was was a rejection of Labour. Labour wasn't Labour enough for those on the left. And they were utterly hopeless for those in the middle. National did better than expected. ACT and NZ First were about what everyone was predicting in the final week of the election. I flicked around the media a bit before settling on Newstalk ZB’s coverage for the night. And I found it really entertaining. Thank you, team. I don't think I'm biased, (probably biased) but I thought it was jolly good.
Chris Hipkins's speech was odd and sort of sums up why Labour lost, in my opinion. He talked about the many, many amazing things that Labour had done and how impressive they'd been in the face of so many odds. Oh, how magnificent they were, proving yet again that by spending so much time in Wellington he is completely out of touch with what people have been feeling for at least two years.
The best moment of the speech came with the mic drop of hey, I'd like to thank my new partner Toni. Everyone said “Toni? With an I? With a Y? Who's Toni? Where's Toni?” It was that bit that got my attention.
He doesn't seem to understand how Labour lost so badly. So, my recommendation, if he's remotely interested, for him to come to a come to Jesus moment and understand what happened, would be to sit himself quietly in a corner, away from sycophants and people who just think he's the bee's knees, open up the New Zealand Herald and read Simon Wilson's column. Because Simon Wilson, who is a left-leaning columnist, has had a road to Damascus moment in his column where he talks about Labour's ability to win the war. They were fit to win the war, but not for peace. A bit like Churchill's World War II Government.
Simon Wilson writes, it isn't Labour's fault that the fallout from the pandemic has been difficult to understand. People isolated from loved ones and hardship and grief, children traumatised, businesses collapsed and still collapsing. Anger and intolerance on the rise, the health system almost broken - the social trauma has been far deeper and more widespread than expected and it will roll on for a long time to come, he writes.
Yes, we know! Is this not what we've been talking about for the past couple of years? If Simon or Chris Hipkins or whoever had turned off Nat Rad, or Concert Radio for 10 minutes and tuned into ZB, they would have known this long before Saturday night. Simon Wilson goes on: Co-governance was always going to be opposed by racists, but Labour allowed a lot of other good-hearted people to feel estranged by it too. Yes, the messaging was so poor, their delivery of it was so poor, that as Simon Wilson says, people who would normally be quite moderate and quite tolerant were like, “What the Dickens?” And Simon's, like, wow, who knew?
We did. We knew. Simon Wilson goes on: build a light rail, okay, but make sure the existing bus networks are highly functional on existing roads. Reform education, of course, but get kids back into classrooms and do not wreck the universities or the technical institutes. And yes, reform the health system, but the priority has to be the front line.
Yes, Simon. We know. We've been saying this all along. Where were you? Where were you in the lead up to the election saying this? This is why people turned against Labour, because they could see all of this ineptitude. Not because they're racist, or anti trans, or venal money grubbing capitalists who want to squeeze more out of the oppressed working men or women.
Basically, it's because Labour were completely and utterly hopeless at delivering all the myriad promises they made to New Zealanders. And when it came down to it, they simply could not deliver what New Zealanders needed and wanted.
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What I enjoyed most about Saturday night was the message.
What National and Act have argued for, and got support for, is to take this country back to what it was - aspirational, successful, outward looking and positive.
For years we were the rockstar economy. When tragedy and upset struck as it did with the earthquake and the Global Financial Crisis, we didn’t buckle and we didn’t sink. We backed ourselves to work through and walk out the other side better off for the experience.
What we have had for the past six years, and certainly three years, is a small-minded, inward-looking, miserable little country that lost its way.
Top down leadership counts and when that leadership lacks any real grunt and fills that gap with slogans and one-liners, everyone under it suffers.
The lack of leadership these past few years has been as depressing as it has been astonishing, and the sadness was you didn’t have to look back that far to see it didn't have to be that way. Because until recently, it wasn’t.
There is nothing wrong with political divergence of thought or ideology. But extremism, which is in part what we have been delivered these past handful of years, never sits well in a country like ours.
Mix that with arrogance, and an arrogance driven by incompetence, and you had a recipe for the sort of disaster we have had to endure.
The National/Act message is not just about tax cuts and welfare settings and public service numbers. It's about vision.
It's about being better, it's about incentive, it's about opportunity, it's about backing yourself and improving and it's about being relentless, positive and aspirational.
These are powerful and useful qualities and, when applied well, can lead you anywhere you want to go. It applies to every single one of us individually, it applies to groups and companies and teams and it applies to countries.
We have not been what we can be, or anywhere close. That, fingers crossed, is about to change.
The adults are back, they seem to have thought about what they want to do and how they want to do it.
The task is massive given the state of the place. But the attitude, at least to this point, is right. We are good when we want to be.
We are winners if we are determined.
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Wellington Central's new MP Tamatha Paul has revealed why she wouldn't talk to Mike Hosking during his election night coverage.
The Green candidate won the seat convincingly over the weekend, however refused to be interviewed by Newstalk ZB's Breakfast Host when asked.
She explained to Nick Mills why that decision was made.
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Well what a weekend.
From the nail biter of a fantastic AB’s game, which, for the record, I was never in any doubt of. For those of you who were still listening to our election night coverage at midnight Saturday night you would have heard me say I picked the AB’s to win – so you know, never in any doubt from me, just saying. Just so happy for Fozzie to be honest. I feel like he deserved that.
Likewise I thought the Nats deserved to win Saturday night like they did. You can’t take away from Luxon what he was up against... from a shambolic leaking party at the start, to some in house scandals, to an unsympathetic media, to constant grilling about how unliked and unpopular he was, to a gruelling and nasty campaign against him from Labour and their Union mates at the CTU.
He had it all thrown at him, and he just kept going. Slow and steady wins the race. On reflection, personally, if we made one mistake it was getting sucked in by the polls, we started to believe them. I did anyway. I think questions need to be asked now about how pollsters are conducting these in this post-landline age. They seemed ropey at the beginning, but then as they stacked up and up and up – and we sure weren’t short of polls— they seemed to all be telling a similar story.
Turns out, they were wrong. Worst culprits were obviously Newshub, where an excited Jenna Lynch breathlessly announced just a couple of days out from election day that ‘the Nats had crashed’.
It really got to the point of crazy at the end there. Maybe we all just went nuts because it was such a long campaign, we were all delirious by then. But I don’t think we as voters were well served by the so called non-biased press gallery reporting, and by sideshows like whether Chris Luxon believed in dinosaurs.
I think what the wipe out for Labour very clearly points to is a rejection of Jacinda – particularly in Auckland where National did so well. I mean Chloe won the electorate seat of Auckland Central, but Auckland had a massive blue wave. And I actually put Chloe’s win down to name recognition and just being a face of Auckland for so long. Mahesh came dangerously close there and I think he'll be a force to be reckoned with next time – he just needs more time and more name recognition.
But Hipkins got a hospital pass from Jacinda of the very worst kind, I felt bad for him in the end. Voters rejected lockdowns and her sneering treatment of them and the fact her very own Mt Albert electorate is so close to flipping blue for the first time in history, speaks volumes about how toxic the Jacinda brand had become. International coverage leapt on it, one headline calling it a ‘devastating verdict on Jacinda Ardern as New Zealand votes out Labour party in 'bloodbath'.
CNN said: "New Zealand shifts right as voters punish ruling party". And I do think it was the party getting punished —and Jacinda— more so than Chris Hipkins himself.
So look it’s all on for Luxon now. After an exhausting campaign it now seems the nitty gritty of the hard work really starts for him: how he cobbles together his government, who gets what, does he need Winston after specials are counted or not, and how the heck does he make it all work.
All I can say at this point is thank god the All Blacks won, thank goodness the election campaign is over, now all we need is for the sun to keep shining.
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Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he wants to "get cracking on" building relationships and starting conversations with respective political parties in forming a government.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning, he acknowledged there is a large chunk of special votes still needing to be counted.
Asked about his thinking on NZ First and party leader Winston Peters, he said: "I would prefer as I've always said, in a coalition National and ACT - I think that would be the strongest and simplest way to do it."
But he said there are other things to consider, namely special votes and an overhang.
"What I want to do is progress the relationship, progress arrangements. And we might move at different rates and different paces, with respective parties, but actually want to get on with that."
Pushed on Peters and whether or not he would be part of the new government, Luxon was firm: "Again, I'm not going to go into that. I'm really not."
"As I've said, my preference is to work with National and ACT - if we can do it alone, we will. But as I said, I'd pick up the phone and we would work with Mr Peters and New Zealand First."
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ACT Party leader David Seymour said what is clear is there is going to be a process driven by the special votes that may well deliver them a majority to work together with the National Party.
"But there's also a possibility that there's going to be a third person in this marriage —as Diana once said— and we're going to have to work through how we create a three-way deal," he said, acknowledging the potential inclusion of NZ First.
Seymour said the public had voted for change, but he also acknowledged the importance of the special votes and democracy.
“About 567,000 people's votes haven't been counted yet and their vote counts too - so we wait. That's the rules."
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The National Party says it's keeping the special votes in mind as it starts working out how it will form government.
Deputy Leader Nicola Willis says they won't be doing any negotiating via the media because they want to respect the privacy of prospective coalition partners.
She told Kate Hawkesby that work is going on.
Willis says they're progressing relationships with parties they want arrangements with.
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A polling expert has given New Zealand's general election polls a pass mark.
Curia Principal David Farrar told Mike Hosking that the polling industry gave a pretty good idea of what to expect.
He says with half a million votes to come, National's probably going to end up somewhere between 37 and 38%, which is where polls expected them to land.
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This week the Sunday Panel has had a bit of a rebrand.
This week's Election Panel features Political Commentator Brigette Morton and Former Labour Minister Kris Fafooi discussing the ins and outs of this election:
What caused the blue wave that swept the country? Will the special votes change anything?
How will Labour fare as the opposition? Will Luxon's business background give him an edge when negotiating with Winston Peters?
The votes - how do they break down, the electorates, and how did the parties fare?
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A blue wave swept the country last night, National taking 39% of the votes.
Former Finance Minister and National member, Steven Joyce, told Newstalk ZB's Election Special that ahead of time he was concerned that it might become another auction between the two parties.
However that doesn't seem likely, he said, even if it became a mathematically viable option.
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Te Pāti Māori's had a good election, with Rawiri Waititi holding Waiariki and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer taking Te Tai Hauāuru.
21-year-old Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke has unseated senior Labour Minister Nanaia Mahuta in Hauraki-Waikato, and Takuta Ferris has taken Te Tai Tonga.
Two other Labour Cabinet Ministers have only slim leads: Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau and Peeni Henare in Tāmaki Makaurau.
Labour Māori Caucus leader, Willie Jackson, told Newstalk ZB's Election Special that it's a hard day for the Labour team, particularly for Mahuta.
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ACT is playing electorate monopoly in Auckland, with Brooke van Velden taking a historic win in Tamaki and David Seymour comfortably regaining Epsom.
Van Velden told Newstalk ZB’s Election Special that Tamaki locals haven’t had a real choice since Robert Muldoon won the seat in 1960.
She said that she’s committed to listening and continuing to listen to the locals, fulfilling their desire to have a strong advocate bringing their concerns to Wellington.
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Act will have 11 seats in the new Parliament, with Brooke van Velden taking the previously safe National seat of Tamaki.
Leader David Seymour told Newstalk ZB's Election Special that the challenge is now to use their increased influence in a National-led government.
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Labour campaign chair Megan Woods says they're still letting the dust settle on a devastating election result.
She told Newstalk ZB’s Election Special that it's too soon to say where things went so wrong for her party.
But she says that at the end of the day, they just didn't get enough votes.
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They may not have swooped to victory but it's been a massive night for the Greens.
They'll spend the next three years in Opposition but they're celebrating as though they've won the election, picking up much of the Labour vote.
Greens Co-Leader James Shaw told Francesca Rudkin and Jason Walls that it's been a banger of a result.
He says they've got 14 MPs —the most ever— with seven new people are coming into Parliament, and have won three electorates.
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New Zealand First's Shane Jones says the election's brought a sense of relief.
He's calling leader Winston Peters a phoenix, leading a team of eight back into Parliament on current numbers.
But things could change after the special vote count is released on November 3.
NZ First's Shane Jones told Francesca Rudkin on Newstalk ZB's Election special that it's still a big unknown.
He says these matters have to be discussed by the new Caucus and leader.
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New Zealand First's Shane Jones says the election's brought a sense of relief.
He's calling leader Winston Peters a phoenix, leading a team of eight back into Parliament on current numbers.
But things could change after the special vote count is released on November 3.
NZ First's Shane Jones told Francesca Rudkin on Newstalk ZB's Election special that it's still a big unknown.
He says these matters have to be discussed by the new Caucus and leader.
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The votes are in.
National is set to take up Government, but time is still to tell whether or not Christopher Luxon will need to pick up the phone and call in NZ First.
The party's campaign spokesperson Chris Bishop joined Francesca Rudkin on Newstalk ZB's Election Special to find out what comes next for National.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson of Sherson Willis PR and former Labour staffer Mike Munro talked about:
What did we think of last night’s final debate? Did Chris Hipkins go too far?
How will tomorrow night play out? How big a role will New Zealand First and Winston Peters play tomorrow night? Will he break his word? Will he work with ACT? What will happen after the dust settles?
And should Mark Telea have been dropped for the quarterfinal clash with Ireland on Sunday morning?
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Labour claims it's enjoying a last-minute surge, in leaked internal polling.
It puts Labour on 30 percent, National on 35, the Greens on 13, Act on 8, and Te Pati Maori on 4.
It would have the left bloc overtaking the right - 47 percent to 43 percent.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls is urging scepticism.
He told Heather du Plessis-Allan with New Zealand First on 6 percent, this still makes Winston Peters kingmaker.
“I would take this with more than a pinch of salt. I mean, we don’t talk about parties’ internal polls like they’re the gospel, but this is just a way the Labour Party will shore up their support and get to the polls.”
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Let’s kick-off with a bit of financial advice. If you have shares in a sausage roll factory or an ice cream shop, sell them now.
Because, after today, sales are going to plummet without the politicians screaming around the country filling their gobs and scooping the cold stuff into cones.
Come midnight tonight, we are done for another three years. Although the real action is still to come with voting still happening until 7 o’clock tomorrow night and then the results.
I love election night. But what I think is going to be very different this time around is how people are going to react if the result isn’t what they want.
I’m picking that the mood of this campaign is going to linger.
That’s because I agree with business leader Sir Ian Taylor who is saying today that this has been the worst campaign he’s ever seen because of how divided everyone is. Not just the politicians and the parties, but us voters as well.
I have never known people to be either totally forthright in saying how bad they think the parties, the policies and the individual politicians are; or terrified of getting involved in arguments about politics.
Especially socially. I’ve even heard stories about social occasions being delayed until after the election because people just don’t want to risk getting groups together and it turning into a row about politics.
But that’s not going to end tomorrow night, or whenever we know which parties are going to be in government.
That’s because I reckon that this is the most divided we have been as a country since the 1981 Springbok rugby tour. The division among people then as to whether the tour should’ve been happening or not was probably the most divided we have been as a country.
But the way things have been during this election campaign - and even before that - would have to be a close second to the division during the Springbok Tour, don’t you think?
I’m definitely with Sir Ian Taylor when he says that this has been the worst campaign ever because of the anger and division.
Which is obvious in some of the policies that have been touted by the various parties. Policies designed to try and calm the farm because we’re all so angry.
GST off fruit and veggies. A crazy policy. But, hey, it could mean we’re less angry when we go to the supermarket.
Ending co-governance. Yep, apparently we’ll be less angry if they stop that blimmin’ “iwi takeover”.
Less road cones. Yep - that’ll make us less angry.
And, as Sir Ian is saying today, with all these politicians coming up with ideas that they think will make us less angry - or policies that just put oil on the squeaky wheel - none of the parties have come up with a long-term vision for our country.
The sort of vision you might expect politicians to come-up with. But that isn’t happening, because of the divisiveness and anger.
Which was apparent in last night’s Leaders’ Debate on TVNZ, wasn’t it? Man alive, Chris Hipkins especially was just letting rip. Especially when Christopher Luxon was going-on about Hipkins having no control over his Cabinet, and the Labour leader came back with that line of the night, saying: "None of my MPs beat people up with a bed leg."
Which was a reference, of course, to National MP Sam Uffindell. And depending who you talk to, it was either a very low blow or a brilliant piece of debating.
I think it was both. It definitely made me sit up and pay attention! Put it that way.
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In the final edition of Politics Friday before election day, John was joined by Labour’s Megan Woods and National’s Gerry Brownlee live in studio.
They discussed the campaign, whether it’s been the most negative they’ve seen, and the policies they’re the proudest of leading into the election.
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Former MP and Minister Peter Dunne and former MP and Attorney General Chris Finlayson joins Nick Mills for an election special of Friday Faceoff.
Together they break down the last leaders debate, the latest polls, the reality of working with Winston Peters, and who they back to win electorates within the Wellington Region.
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Well we made it... we made it, didn’t we?
Are you as fatigued as I am?
I'm not sure I can put my finger on it, but this has been one of the more forgettable campaigns.
Maybe it was the fact we ultimately all know the Government will lose and another one will be elected.
No, we don’t know in what shape. But we know Labour is done and, because they are done, this campaign has just been a long drawn out goodbye with confirmation on Saturday night.
There is always finger pointing and negativity but this time seems to have been turbocharged.
There has been a lot of mis-information, the debates seem to have heralded nothing, there were no zingers, no head-turners and no revelations.
It just seems to have been a slog.
That might have something to do with the state of us as a country and, given the state of us, that's why the Government will lose.
But we entered the race rundown and punch drunk and ready for a new start.
It probably has something to do with the talent. I think there is a real story there in Hipkins and Luxon and their anaemic numbers. Neither have set the world alight, so charisma, or lack of it, played its part.
I have learned some stuff we need to urgently address about the system we operate in. The dead person revelation is an astonishing mistake and may well play an even greater part in the new Government than we ever could have imagined.
Our knowledge of MMP is something I am deeply worried about. The number of communications I have received with questions that genuinely show a minimal understanding of the system is little short of a crisis.
I have learned about the Germans way of doing it. They get the result one minute after the polls close and negotiations and discussion of coalitions on the night. There's no dumb rules around no campaigning on the day and postal votes have to be in by election day so a result comes faster.
These are easy fixes and would improve the system severalfold.
The fact Winston Peters can pop his head up after all these years, say nothing other than "hey, angry people, vote for me" says something about us.
All in all, it's been unsatisfying.
The Saturday night game of "what do you think will happen" will be a bit of fun. And if the All Blacks win on Sunday next week will feel a lot better.
But here's the campaign takeaway - it was like one of those movies where the best bits were in the promo.
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Can you imagine what it’s like on the National Party bus today after those three poll results that came out in the last 24 hours?
All three of them - the 1News Kantar poll, the Newshub poll, and the Guardian poll - have Winston Peters being the coalition kingmaker.
They’ve got NZ First somewhere between 6 percent and 8.2 percent. Anything over 5 percent, and Winston, Shane and the rest of the crew are back in Parliament.
In one poll, 9 percent are undecided. In another, as many as 12 percent don’t know yet who they’re going to vote for.
But I think it’s fairly safe to assume that, come Saturday night, Christopher Luxon will be reaching for the phone and “making the call”.
He is saying, of course, that he doesn't regret coming out and announcing that he will go into coalition with NZ First if it means getting rid of the current government.
But there seems to be no shortage of people saying that, as soon as he did that, he opened the door for Winston Peters because people then realised that a vote for NZ First might actually be worth it.
And that’s what I think too. I think Winston Peters and NZ First would be going nowhere fast if that hadn’t happened.
But then, in my defence, I didn’t know at the time that Christopher Luxon was going to put the welcome mat out.
Luxon himself probably didn’t know that, either. Which is why I would love to be on the National Party bus today.
Because, can’t you imagine it: Chris Bishop - he’ll be sitting down the back absolutely stewing. Because I reckon, even though he’s campaign manager, he wouldn’t have been up for the big video announcement from Luxon welcoming Winston into the tent.
Christopher Luxon, though, he’ll be up at the front of the bus, probably chatting with the driver about potholes and road cones.
Because, that’s the thing I’ve noticed from my dealings with Christopher Luxon, is when you meet him, he clicks into your world.
So he’ll be up front chatting to the driver. Chris Bishop will be parked in the back row. And old Gerry - Gerry Brownlee - he’ll be going up and down the aisle trying to keep the peace.
Because he's seen it all before, hasn’t he? There’s not much that gets him panicking. Not even the prospect of sitting around the Cabinet table with Winston Peters.
And maybe Gerry’s right. Maybe there is no reason to panic.
Maybe, it would be a good thing having Winston Peters in cahoots with National and ACT.
How many times have you heard Winston Peters say this campaign that he’s the one to bring experience into Cabinet. And I tell you what, you can’t argue with him on that front.
He’s been Deputy Prime Minister. Treasurer. Foreign Minister. He’s been around. For yonks.
Unlike some of the main players in National and ACT. By my count, only six of National’s Top 20 have been in Cabinet before. And, as we know, Christopher Luxon and David Seymour have never been in Cabinet.
So maybe Winston Peters is exactly what Christopher Luxon’s government would need to succeed.
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At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
The campaign: 6/10
Because it’s a chance to vote and that should never be taken for granted. But man, it's been hard work in places.
Labour: 4/10
It was negative, it wasn’t fought on their record for very good reasons, Hipkins held his own but was pretty much shot from day one.
National: 6/10
A lot of noise, a lot of money and plenty of ideas and policy. Luxon proved by debate number one he was a genuine contender. They've been helped by the polls and the negative view of the Government but strategically blew it on Peters and the second election thought bubble. Tomorrow night will reveal how bad those errors are, or aren't.
The Greens: 7/10
Didn't get the spotlight because they are not a major party and most of the media still report campaigns with a First Past the Post mentality. But they made no dramatic errors, split the work well between leaders and benefited from a soft Labour vote.
ACT: 7/10
Probably the best of the campaigns if you count the whole year. Seymour has been disciplined and relentless, had good one-liners, endless press releases, all the policy ideas you could ever want and was quite entertaining with it. He's marked down if it turns out he peaked a bit soon.
The Maori Party: 3/10
Only because they have been invisible. I assume they are busy in the electorates, although if polling is accurate, they could be the disappointment story of the night and end up going nowhere.
New Zealand First: 8/10
They have partially stolen the show. If they end up in Government they completely stole the show. But, they have policy they can't price, promises they won't keep and a patter from 1995 that about 5% of people keep buying. As far as an effort goes, the return on input is potentially astonishing.
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Sir John Key believes the blue team could come out on top this election.
Key put out a video last week endorsing the party he used to lead, and warning of people waking up after the election in 'limbo land.'
The former Prime Minister's been looking back on the campaign and told Mike Hosking that he hasn't seen a poll where Labour-Green bloc has been above 40%.
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It's the final day of the election campaign.
The leaders of both major parties hashed it out in the final televised leaders debate last night.
We'll begin getting results from 7pm tomorrow.
Outgoing Labour MP Stuart Nash told Mike Hosking that the campaign's been reasonably uninspiring.
He says what surprises him is that National should've knocked this out of the park, but for some reason they haven't.
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Well this is the last time I talk to you before Saturday... although we’ll all be here Saturday night. Mike, me, Heather, and Barry, if you want to tune into ZB’s election coverage or watch it live streamed on the ZB or Herald websites, we’ll be here. Depending on how it goes if you look closely on the livestream you may see me tearing my hair out.
Honestly, I’ll be glad to see the back of it. It’s been too long, too divisive, too feisty, too nasty. I think that’s all been a turn off for voters and it may go towards explaining the current apathy. If the polls don’t pick up Saturday, then I think that says something about how this whole campaign —from every side— has been run. The sniping, accusations and insults has been gross. The misinformation that’s been allowed to run unchecked, fuelled by media, has been a disappointment.
Christopher Luxon said on this station yesterday when Kerre asked him what’s true and what isn’t given all these attack ads that he was grateful to be given the opportunity to clarify that, given no journalist had asked him that yet. Can you believe that? All the disinformation out there and not one journalist stopping to ask if it’s even true. Luxon says he’s confused as to why the media waste time asking random inane questions like, ’do you believe in dinosaurs?’ which then becomes a feature on the 6 o’clock news over and above policy that will impact the daily lives of New Zealanders.
Labour has a high-powered machine of negative publicity blitzing National these last couple of days, making claims that simply are not true. Attacks is all they have, but the sad thing is how many people may fall for it without checking for themselves or reading the policy. How many believe the attacks and think National will cut their winter energy payments? (Not true) Or sack teachers (not true), add interest to student loans (not true), drop University fees free (not true), the list is endless. Luxon says they’ve tried to counter all this misinformation, but if the media won’t cover it, how do they get cut through?
But the key thing we as voters need to start doing I think, alongside understanding MMP better, is think more big picture.
We’re so in the weeds now and into the micro, that we’re not pulling back and looking at the bigger picture. A change of government is one thing, but it’s not enough – that government needs to be able to act decisively to elicit wholesale change to turn around the direction of this country. If it can’t do that, if it's encumbered by in fighting, hobbled by the handbrake that is Winston and his petty demands, or him siphoning off money for side shows like the provincial growth fund, then they achieve nothing. They’re ineffective, and we don’t get the change we need.
And then come 2026, they’re potentially out. The country lurches left again – probably with a new iteration of a fresh version of a Jacinda, and with a greater push to move further left, back to all the things Hipkins shelved like a wealth tax and a capital gains tax.
We don’t want to waste 3 years on a circus act. We need proper government that can be bold decisive and effective, and if there are too many pieces in that puzzle, then it won’t be real impactful change.
Anyway we’ll know, hopefully tomorrow night just how messy or otherwise it’s looking. And if you haven't voted already just remember, your most important vote is your party vote.
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Chris Hipkins and Chris Luxon went head-to-head last night in their final debate before polling day tomorrow.
Political Editor, Jason Walls, told Kate Hawkesby that he agrees with commentators who described the tone as 'cranky'.
He says it was clear Hipkins' tactic was to try get under Luxon's skin which worked for the most part.
Walls says he found Hipkins to be quite aggressive during the debate.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Curia pollster and Kiwiblog editor David Farrar and Neale Jones from Capital PR joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
What did we think of last night's political polls? Do we think the election result will be different from what they show? Will NZ First still be the kingmaker party?
Are we surprised more New Zealanders are calling for a referendum on the Treaty, according to recent data?
A start-up, Tracksuit, is requiring their employees to be transparent about their salaries. Would you work somewhere where your salary is visible to co-workers?
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Hipkins has claimed a National-led Government will set key Maori initiatives back extensively.
The Prime Minister has hit out at the opposition, declaring National's Chris Luxon will reverse all 'By Maori for Maori' progress Labour has made.
Hipkins also compared Luxon's approach to Don Brash's 'divisive' 2005 campaign.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Hipkins' allegations don't match National's stance on race relations and labelled the move 'short-sighted'.
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TOP leader Raf Manji says Labour and National have 'pulled back' from the Christchurch seat of Ilam, paving the way for him to get into Parliament.
Labour's Ilam candidate Sarah Pallett has dismissed Manji's claims as 'rubbish', and claims Labour is still in it to win it.
"We've been campaigning so hard, and it's a tiny bit insulting to my volunteers, who've really put in the hard yards and continue to do so- they've been out all day today. I'm just bemused."
National's Hamish Campbell says this is a 'desperate' claim from Raf Manji, as National has been working to bring in votes.
"If you drive through Illam, you'll see that it's absolutely covered in blue signs. We're working right up til we can no longer campaign, which is midnight on Friday. We're going strong."
Raf Manji is still defending his earlier statements, saying he's not seeing a lot of action on the ground from both major parties.
"We're out every day, and we've been out every day for the last month. Yes, we see billboards, but we're not seeing a lot on the ground. I'm sure there's staff doorknocking, but we're out and about."
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls tells us how Chris Hipkins is trying to bring back memories of the 2005 election campaign.
He also tells us how Christopher Luxon is feeling after last night’s polls.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Reporter Sophie Trigger spells out what Labour and the Greens have told a major union meeting today.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including National calling out campaign misinformation and David Seymour’s call over Winston Peters.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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National Leader Christopher Luxon joined Kerre Woodham live in studio to take calls and answer questions from listeners.
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A tale of two polls - but there's just one answer.
Newshub-Reid Research and 1News-Verian have released their last opinion surveys before election night on Saturday.
Both suggest the only viable coalition is National, paired with New Zealand First and ACT - but the margins are narrowing.
Political Commentator Brigette Morton told Kate Hawkesby that the election is shaping up to be about getting the vote out.
Advanced numbers are currently sitting behind what was predicted, and there’s been much discussion about the soft and undecided votes.
The problem with the polls, Morton said, is that for them to actually matter the parties have to get out and get every single vote they can.
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ACT's leader is pitching his party as the way to create a government that can put New Zealand on the right track.
Herald poll of polls shows National and Act have only a 28.5% chance of getting into Government without New Zealand First.
David Seymour told Mike Hosking why people should vote for him.
He said that those who want real change and stability should party vote ACT.
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National's leader has weighed in on the latest poll numbers.
The Herald's final Poll of Polls shows National and Act have only a 28.5% chance of getting into government without New Zealand First.
Chris Luxon told Mike Hosking that they're now getting down to the business end of the election.
He says public polls are showing it's going to be close but there's a very strong mood for change.
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The most recent polls continue to point towards a change in government.
Surveys by Newshub-Reid Research and 1News-Verian both pick a National-New Zealand First-ACT coalition as the likely winners on Saturday.
Former MP and political commentator Peter Dunne told Mike Hosking that there's no clear path to power for the centre left, and National's path increasingly relies on Winston Peters' party.
He says there'd have to be a big surge in Labour votes to alter that, and the way the polls have been tracking all year it won't move more than one percent, which won't be enough.
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Two Ws are potentially going to ruin our weekend: Winston and Wayne.
Winston could kill all the fun Saturday night by holding the whole country to ransom and not forming a government. Wayne Barnes could ruin Sunday morning with his calls against the AB’s... we are potentially in for a rocky weekend of woe and misery leaving us all with a collective hangover Monday. The country could sink into a deep depression. More so than it already is. Yikes.
I’m still aghast at how many people don’t understand MMP. I know someone who went to vote yesterday, the person next to them said to the volunteer at the polling station – ‘so wait a minute have we got two votes?’ The volunteer said, ‘yes one is party vote one is electorate vote.’ He replied, “what’s electorate vote?”
I know of another person who wants to change the government, hates the way the country’s going, wants change, but in the booth decided they were fed up with all the politicians and so did a “protest vote” and voted Green. Now Green doesn’t change the government. Protest votes don’t work, there’s no such thing. It’s just a vote. Your party vote is the most important one. Where you put it matters. It changes the government or it doesn’t. We still as a country do not seem to understand this. After all these years of MMP, we still don’t know what we’re doing which worries me no end.
I’m also worried about the polls, the lack of enthusiasm and engagement, and the difficulties I’m hearing about with overseas voting —links not working, papers not uploading or downloading— because when it’s too hard people give up.
If I had a magic wand, I would change the voting system. MMP doesn’t work, I regret voting for it. In my defence, I had no idea what I was voting for. It seems now 25 years on, many of us still don’t get it.
That’s a shame. Because if you think about it, why don’t we educate ourselves on this stuff? We can cite exactly the machinations of how the World Cup works, who's in what draw playing what side and where they’ll end up after pool games, who gets who in the quarters and what that means for the semis and whose refereeing, we can tell you everything about that and educate ourselves happily on that. But on one of the single most important things we will ever do, every 3 years, we can’t be bothered working out how it works.
Is it that we don’t fully understand how important government is? Is it a slow boil lobster in a pot situation? We don’t wake up to how bad it is until it’s too late and then we get all mad and hate what’s happened but when we get our chance to have our say, we don’t understand it, so we just tick any box. Or worse, don’t vote at all.
The people who don’t vote and see that as a protest, again, it’s not, it’s just a wasted vote and a missed opportunity to participate in democracy. If you don’t vote, you can’t complain about what New Zealand chooses for you. But is politics so boring that we just switch off, and then when it comes to voting we can’t really be bothered finding out how it works? So we just moan a lot but don’t make any effort to fix anything.
I know well educated people who still don’t know how it works and haven’t bothered trying to find out. Last night’s polls —if we believe the polls— tells us Winston is likely kingmaker. And then if Wayne Barnes buggers it up for us at the quarter final, don’t be surprised if I sound depressed Monday.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Jordan Williams from the Taxpayers' Union and Jack Tame from ZB's Saturday Mornings and Q&A joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Recent polls indicate National's popularity may have peaked and the gap between left and right blocs is narrowing. Both the new Newshub-Reid Research and One News Verian polls show National and ACT will need the boost from NZ First to govern- could National lose the unlosable election?
Dame Jacinda Ardern took to Facebook to encourage voters to turn up and cast their votes for Labour- calling Hipkins a friend and a good dad. Do we think this will encourage a wider turnout?
Politicians are weighing in on the Israel discussion - Marama Davidson said if we're going to deem Hamas a terrorist organisation, the same test should be applied to the Israeli Defence Force. Is she out of line with public opinion on this one?
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Taxes - and tax cuts - have turned into a political football this election.
Changing income tax rates is high on the agendas of most political parties, with National and ACT promising adjustments and the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and TOP calling for progress.
What would this mean for voters? NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny breaks down these proposed policies.
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The election is on a knife-edge, with the gap between the left and right blocs narrowing in tonight's latest political polls.
Both the Newshub-Reid Research One News Verian polls show National and ACT need New Zealand First to govern.
National has fallen more than four points according to Newshub - down to 34.5 percent - while Labour gains in both surveys, but remains in the 20s.
National's finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis says it's closer than she'd like.
"I think that that is because there are still people who are taking change for granted."
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Dame Jacinda Ardern endorsed Labour in a Facebook livestream this morning.
The former Prime Minister claimed a vote for Labour was the best way to guarantee further action on issues like climate change and child poverty.
ZB political editor Jason Walls isn't convinced this move will sway all international voters over to Labour's side- as many haven't forgotten the party's Covid and MIQ debacle.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls tells us how Winston Peters and David Seymour might finally get getting along.
He also previews not one, but two political polls tonight.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Reporter Sophie Trigger is on National’s big blue campaign bus and reports on how Chris Luxon is feeling with only a few days until October 14.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the Dame Jacinda Ardern’s campaign appearance and doubts National’s trade policy is realistic.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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If you listen to Labour's ads, and you can't really avoid them right now as we lead up to final days of the election. If you listen to Labour's ads, you'll be able to go in and make an appointment to get all that dental work you can't afford right now done, once the dentists open up at 7am next Monday. If Labour become the next Government.
Wrong.
Taxpayer-funded dental work is going to only going to be for the under 30s. It only kicks in at the next election in 2026, three years away, and it only covers the very basics. Those wisdom teeth and implants you'll still have to pay for.
If you listen to National’s ads, which you can't avoid and that lead up to the election, households all over the country will be showered with money when their tax bracket adjustment kicks in.
Well, no.
Most households won't get the $250 that's been the razzle dazzle figure of the campaign ads. Sure, there was an ‘up to’ $250 in there and ‘an average household’ in there, but people only really hear what they want to hear, don't they?
If you listen to Labour and you're on the Super, they'll tell you that Super will end should the Nat’s become the Government. Clear message - They win, you lose.
Wrong.
What National have said is that they'll gradually increase the age of eligibility to 67, with adjustments not beginning until 2044, 20 years after the legislation is passed. This change wouldn't affect anyone born before 1979. So if you're getting the pension now, whichever government gets in, you'll be getting it till you turn up your toes.
Oh, but if those Nat’s get in, say Labour, they're going to cut the winter energy payment, leaving frail old ladies shivering in the cold. These weren't ads, but this was expressed on Labour MP's Facebook pages. They're going to cut the winter energy payment. You're going to freeze to death.
Wrong again.
And in fact, National’s been roundly criticised for not doing away with the winter energy payment. The Taxpayers Union says it needs further targeting to go to those who actually need it, and this is exactly the kind of wasteful spending that National should be campaigning against. Instead, they're choosing to do what they think is popular. National will continue to fund the winter energy payment for all retirees, regardless of whether they need it or not.
So misinformation. National would have you believe that if Labour cobbles together a government, it'll be with the Greens, Te Pati Maori, and the gangs. And it won't, of course. I mean, Labour's given money to gang affiliated community programs, as indeed have National in the past. But you know, it’s an example of hyperbole - driving home the point that the Nat’s are going to get tough on gangs, Labours soft on gangs and they'll be part of the Government. Of course they won't be an official part of the Government. And yet there are people that believe it.
The misinformation and negative campaigning is part of modern life, I suppose, and part of the final days of election campaigning. But it is a bit dispiriting. You roll your eyes, and you think surely people know that that is not strictly true. You only have to go to any of the parties' websites and see their policies for yourself, it's really not difficult to find.
But people don't do it. They'd rather take the snackable bites that come through the media as advertising and believe them to be true. Even though mistrust in the media is huge, according to polls, doesn't matter, people will believe what they want to hear. If they perhaps are biased against Labour or biased against National, they will hear what they want to hear. They will stop all deductive reasoning and critical thinking.
If you still haven't voted yet, just have a long hard think about why are you going to vote? How you want the country to look? What direction you want it to go? And don’t listen to the ads. Because that's all they are, they’re ads that are, at the very best, gussying up information to try and appeal to you. To try to frighten you into voting.
It's a bit of a shame, really, it it'd be better to go for the positives. This is what will happen. This is what we can do and to represent it truthfully. But I guess that is too much to hope for in 2023, Anyway, only three days to go.
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There is an ad on the radio at the moment featuring a brilliant impersonation of Labour’s Finance spokesperson and current Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
The Taxpayers Union is behind it. They’ve also got a website that goes with it and even have vehicles painted up, as if they are a legitimate business.
They're calling it "Robbo’s Removal Company” and the gist of the whole thing is that Grant Robertson and Labour have made things so bad that they are literally making it very easy for people to move. To get out of New Zealand.
So, imagine this is a website you’d expect any moving company to have. And this one’s got cartoon pictures of Robbo and Chippy, with the big statement: “Since 2017, we have helped more than 218,000 New Zealand citizens move to other countries in pursuit of lower taxes, greater reward for hard-work and a more affordable cost of living. We make moving the quick, easy and obvious choice for skilled and successful people across the country.”
And just like a genuine website for a genuine business, it includes customer testimonials.
They say things like this from Isabella, a fictional doctor: “Robbo’s Removals made moving to Australia the obvious choice. Of course, I was initially sad about leaving behind my fellow co-workers at the hospital but they have now decided to move here too!”
Then we’ve got the attack ads coming from the other end of the political spectrum. The Council of Trade Unions, especially. These are the ones you will have seen everywhere with the image of Christopher Luxon looking like some sort of dictator.
And the message that the National Party leader is out of touch and there’s too much to risk voting him to be our next Prime Minister.
And it’s not just the ads. The CTU sent out that crazy email to all its members the other weekend saying that National wants to cut superannuation, get rid of the winter energy payment and get rid of 10-days sick leave for workers.
All wrong. In fact, if you wanted to, you could say these claims weren’t just wrong - they were actually lies. And I think they were lies. There’s no other way to put it.
And then, after the fact, the CTU came out and said it was all just a mistake.
So that’s some of the stuff the so-called “third parties” have been up to. And by third parties, I mean the likes of the CTU and the Taxpayers’ Union.
But the politicians and the parties themselves have really ramped up the attacks too.
And it’s not just the leaders. Individual MPs have been getting all negative about their opponents on social media.
So we’ve had Labour saying that National’s tax plan is a “scam”. That it should’ve been upfront from the start and said that only 3,000 households would qualify under its plan for the full “up to $250 a fortnight” in tax relief.
And yesterday, National’s Christopher Luxon was describing Chris Hipkins as the “Prime Mis-informer”. That was in relation to Labour’s plan for state-funded dental care for the under-30s.
National is saying that Labour should’ve been more open and honest and made it clear that what it was talking about was basic dental-care only. That’s why Luxon was calling Hipkins the “Prime Mis-informer”.
But is all this dissing of each other by the politicians and all the expensive ads and billboards and posters being put out there by the parties themselves and other outfits like the CTU and the taxpayers, is this actually going to make any difference?
Are they having any influence over which way you decide to vote?
At best, I’m finding some of them entertaining. But that's about it.
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The 2023 election campaign is entering its final days.
With just three days left Labour and National have both descended into negative campaigning as they scrap for every last vote.
NZ Herald’s Deputy Political Editor, Thomas Coughlan, told Kerre Woodham that at the end of the campaign, they’ll tally the time they spent talking about each other versus the time they spent discussing their own policies.
He thinks that relative to previous elections, they’ve been spending so much time obsessed with each other.
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Now in the final week of the election campaign, Labour leader Chris Hipkins joined John MacDonald live in studio to discuss the issues that matter the most to Canterbury.
They discussed the state of the region’s afterhours care, whether there’s any fat in the public sector spending, and what will have to go in order to fund their GST policy.
Plus, does he think Jacinda Ardern’s support will help Labour?
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I'm not sure that MMP needed another reason to be hailed as a deeply flawed mechanism we voted for, not once, but twice.
I still argue we did it because we were too lazy to have a decent look at alternative systems way back when we were deciding we hated First Past the Post.
One of the more interesting factoids of the campaign was when James Shaw told us last week he had seen research that shows we are actually getting less knowledgeable about MMP as people are born into a system that they never really bother to study properly.
This Government, despite MMP, having been a First Past the Post operation has hardly been a shining light and one of their great failures was to not take the astonishing First Past the Post-style majority and convince more of us to come along with them.
By not doing that, the resentment that has built is the same resentment that built under Muldoon-type Governments, whereby we were merely sheep who were lucky enough to be allowed to vote once every three years.
Of all the weird rules of MMP the overhang is probably the least trouble and, in part, explainable.
But the coattailing isn't and if we were to make a change that would be it. An electorate, although important, is not so important it should drag extra seats along with it well below the 5% threshold.
The threshold also is fine. Any less and you are dealing with weirdos and the number of weirdo parties lined up this year shows you the level of crazy we could be open to.
But to take the cake is the "death of a candidate" rule and its subsequent by-election. The rule, with its extra MP and therefore a larger parliament thus disrupting the proportionality, is so stupid it defies logic and quite obviously should be changed.
Why a list MP gets installed until the by-election and then stays makes no sense.
And the fact it could decide a Government is even more bat-shit crazy.
The trouble with MMP, apart from its potentially bizarre outcomes, is it is too complicated. The sheer amount of communication I have received from people this year clearly confused about the value of their electorate vote as opposed to their party vote, is frightening.
And 99.9% of us would not have even known about the dead person rule. And there is nothing wrong with a dead person rule if the dead person rule isn't complete and utter insanity, which it is.
Which makes it not only confusing but stupid as well.
Yet an entire country could be run as the outworking of that one new entirely invented seat we don't actually need.
Go figure.
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MPs Megan Woods and Mark Mitchell joined the Mike Hosking Breakfast to wrap the week's political news and look ahead to the final days of the campaign period.
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Tonight on The Huddle, broadcaster Paddy Gower and current affairs commentator Josie Pagani joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
The Israel Institute of NZ and Jewish Council are calling on the Government here to deem Hamas a terrorist organisation, and follow other Western countries in their condemnation. Should our Government do more in support of Israel?
Chris Hipkins has hinted former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern could have some campaign involvement before Saturday's election. Could this extra boost sway some voters over to Labour's camp?
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National's Chris Luxon has promised to double the value of exports in 10 years, if elected.
The party also vowed to pursue Free Trade Agreements, pump up our trade missions, and prioritise increasing trade with India.
BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie isn't too confident about National's proposal.
"The fact is, New Zealand's export performance unfortunately hasn't changed very much in the last 30 to 40 years- we're still sending about 20 percent of our stuff offshore."
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Chris Hipkins has locked in Saturday, November 25 as the date for the Port Waikato by-election.
It's been triggered by the death of ACT candidate Neil Christensen - and is required by the Electoral Act.
However, locals can still help choose the next Government before October 14.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says there will be 121 MPs in Parliament by the end of the by-election, bucking the trend from previous electoral cycles.
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Chris Luxon is promising to double the value of New Zealand's exports in 10 years, if elected.
National's also vowing to pursue Free Trade Agreements, pump up our trade missions and prioritise increasing trade with India.
National trade and export spokesperson Todd McClay says the UAE is interested in doing an exclusive trade deal with New Zealand.
"For the first time in a long time, they want the high-quality protein, the food that we produce."
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls talks through what he thinks may be the worst media stand up he’s attended in his career.
He also previews The Press debate tonight.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Reporter Sophie Trigger tells us about Christopher Luxon’s day of campaigning in Nelson – and the party’s latest policy announcement.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the latest on the Port Waikato by-election and Raf Manji’s hopes to win the Ilam seat.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Still more election news. It just gets weirder every day really.
The death of a respected and much loved community member in Port Waikato means a quirk of our election process will be triggered. The ACT party's Neil Christensen has died just a week before the election. And that means the electorate vote in Port Waikato will not count on Election Day, however, the party vote will still count.
Now a by-election will be held after the election. That will mean there are 121 MPs in parliament after the by-election, instead of the usual 120. It's an overhang. Why? Well Otago University law professor Andrew Geddis attempted to explain it to Mike on the Mike Hosking Breakfast this morning.
MH: How is it that you get an extra seat, 121 in the Parliament, and then once you hold the by-election, you still have 121? I don't get that part.”
AG: First of all, the reason for the rule is to throw back to our old first-past-the-post days when we only elected people out of electorates. And so if you had a candidate, especially one of the leading candidates, say a National or Labour candidate die, then that could really affect the overall election result. You know, given that people were only elected out of electorates. We just kept the rule.
But under MMP, on election night, 120 seats get distributed by the Electoral Commission. So if someone died, you could just fill that seat with an extra list seat. But because we have this by-election, what's going to happen is we'll fill 120 seats. There'll be an extra list seat added to bring it up to 120. Then at the end of November, we'll have another seat added when the by-election happens, and the new MP comes out of Port Waikato.”
MH: Why don't, when we get the new MP, the list for MP drops out, thus keeping 120?
AG: But that's not what the rules say the rules say.
MH: No, I know that. But why don't we have a proper rule that makes sense?
AG: That would be one way to do it. Or the other way to do it would be to say that unfortunately, things like this happen, people pass away, and so on and so on. And what you can just do is continue the election, elect someone out of Port Waikato because whoever wins that electorate really won't change the overall makeup of Parliament – it will just change whether people get list seats or electorate seats.
MH: But what, if in going to 121 seats if that's the one seat difference in forming a Government?
AG: That is entirely possible. This really could change the overall result of the election for the next three years. It could give the right block the one extra seat they need to govern.
So there we go.
It makes perfect sense as Mike was saying, so you add an extra list seat until the by-election, the electorate MP is elected, you drop off that list person. Doesn't it? I mean change the rules because this is a bit silly, really, isn't it? The extra seat will almost certainly be National’s because Port Waikato is a safe National seat held by MP Andrew Bayly. Andrew Bayly is high enough on the list, he’s 71, to get in as a List MP on election night. Christensen was ranked 35 on ACT’s list, meaning he was unlikely to become an MP without winning the seat of Port Waikato.
The Electoral Commission confirmed that if Bailey subsequently won the by-election, his list spot will go to the next National candidate on the list and that would give National one more seat than it would have won in the election. If that makes any kind of sense to you?
I mean, it's been explained clearly by a law professor. But dumb rules are still dumb rules and sound dumb, even when you say them, even when you are a distinguished law professor and saying them, they still sound dumb.
There's also another spanner in the works, depending on what happens with Te Pati Maori. If Te Pati Maori get more electorate MP's than its party vote qualifies it for, it could result in 122 or a 223 MPs in Parliament. And that would mean 62 seats were needed to get a majority.
In the Herald’s Poll of Poll’s (they look at all the different polls and sort of divvy them up and average them out) Te Pati Maori is on just 2.8% in terms of party vote but would get 4 MPs because of the electorate seats.
So even after Saturday there will still be some shuffling of the cards. There will be some shuffling of the pack before we see what the actual make-up of our Parliament looks like.
It's a fascinating thing. I mean, why can't we change the rules? If you say, yep, we've looked at this and I'm an eminent law professor, and I think it's dumb. And another one says, well, I'm an eminent social scientist looking at voting and how people vote in the country. I understand all about MMP and yep, this is really dumb. Why don't we change it? Seems really silly.
Why is there a reluctance to tidy things up? So even after Saturday, there'll be questions that still need answering.
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I think what stood out for me yesterday when Chris Hipkins was in the studio with Mike for a couple of hours, was how relaxed Hipkins was.
As the two hours slipped by, he seemed to get more relaxed, leaning back in his chair more and more, taking it easy. I wondered if the Coke Zero hadn’t kicked in, or maybe he was just tired, or maybe he’s just given up.
I mean don’t get me wrong, I thought he came across well, I think relaxed is good. But I was interested to hear what he backs about his government, and what he was less proud of. MIQ, the debt still owed to them over that and their handling of how to manage that, he thinks they could’ve done that better or differently.
As an Aucklander who felt like they got locked down for way too long I can tell you from where I sit, I’d have liked to think he would have felt they could have handled that better. He didn’t mention any regrets around slow procurement of PPE or RAT tests or locking Kiwis out of their own country for so long, or having the borders shut seemingly forever, but he did think they could've managed the costs owed for MIQ better. He still doesn’t know how much money is owed from that, interestingly. But he does back his government’s approach to crime, co-governance, and management of the economy.
He puts a lot of the criticism of his government’s performance down to international headwinds or global pressures, doesn’t take much responsibility for what their part in it all has been. But when asked if he backed his Foreign Minister, Nanaia Mahuta, he said he did. Now her appointment was odd from the get-go.
She was a Jacinda appointment that left people scratching their heads, she had no background in foreign affairs whatsoever, she didn’t like travel, she hadn’t held senior roles at cabinet level before... it didn’t make a lot of sense. She also yesterday put her foot in it when she didn’t condemn the attacks on Israel. While other international leaders condemned them, she described it as ‘an outbreak of violence between Israel and Gaza...’ and called for ‘an immediate end to all violence.’
Now alongside being so embarrassing that the PM and leader of the opposition had to jump in immediately and correct that statement, it also got picked up by overseas media. Sky News Australia reported that she failed to condemn the attack. Nicola Willis, who we had on the show yesterday, said Mahuta’s statement was so weak, that Christopher Luxon had to speak up and condemn the attacks on Israel, followed by the PM.
So does the PM feel Mahuta is out of her depth as Foreign Minister or does he support her? Well he told Mike yesterday he supports her and thinks she’s doing a great job, although he said he thought her words ‘could have been stronger’. But here’s the weird thing, she didn’t even run that statement past him, they didn’t even talk before it went out. Hence he had to put out another one straight after it. But he backs her on the international stage, said he has absolute confidence in her. Which I think helps explain why his party is so often accused of not reading the room.
If you think that’s an acceptable offering from your foreign minister, and you don't even want to pick up a phone to each other beforehand, then you’re probably not aware of how low the bar has sunk.
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National's Finance spokesperson is defending her party's fiscal plan in the wake of criticism from her opponents.
Labour is calling out the Nats' proposed public service cuts.
The party suggests National would have to cut $3 billion a year to the public services, alleging that even if all communications staff and advertising was cut from some ministries, it still wouldn't add up.
National's Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking that savings will not undermine front line services, saying it's about backroom bureaucracy and reigning in wasteful spending.
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National's claims voters could be forced into a second election has been met with backlash from commentators.
The party's expressed concern over not striking a coalition deal with NZ First and warned Kiwis may be required to vote again.
NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan has labelled this threat 'gauche' and says National has no reason to scare people into voting.
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Labour's Grant Robertson has labelled National's threat of a second election a 'panic move'.
National leader Chris Luxon has warned of the possibility of an election do-over if NZ First is needed to form a Government.
Robertson says this threat is a 'ridiculous situation' that National leaned into out of fear.
"It's a completely ridiculous situation, it looks very panicky, very unstable. But that's their problem and that's what voters will judge them on."
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The death of ACT's Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen will trigger a by-election.
The Electoral Commission says party votes in the electorate will count for Saturday's election- but those for a Member of Parliament won't.
Chief Electoral Officer Karl Le Quesne says this has a flow-on effect.
He says once the by-election is run and we know who the successful candidate is- that will result in 121 MPs.
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New Zealand First's leader won't say how long it could take for them to strike a coalition deal if they hold the balance of power following the election.
National has sparked fears there could be a long negotiation period if they can't form a Government with ACT alone.
Winston Peters says they have a responsibility to deliver a strong, stable Government.
"The reality is, if it takes time to get it right - say, it takes 12 days - well, that'll be fine."
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Every Monday until the election, The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis.
This week the The Spinoff’s Editor-at-Large Toby Manhire steps in for Barry Soper.
Our expert panel discusses National’s warning that if it can’t get a suitable deal with New Zealand First and Winston Peters – it may lead to a second election.
They also chat about Act’s sizeable drop in the polls – and what’s leading driving their numbers down.
The experts dissect the electorates to watch - and chat both Sir John Key and Helen Clark getting involved in the campaign.
Plus, each will reveal their favourite policy of the campaign – and give their election night prediction.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls talks trouble in paradise on the right of New Zealand politics.
He talks Act playing the confidence-only deal card and also National’s warning there could be a second election.
Newstalk ZB’s Joey Dwyer paints the picture of Chris Hipkins’ day of campaigning around Auckland Central and gives us an insight into the Labour leader’s rugby skills.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including criticism of New Zealand’s response to the Hamas attack on Israel and Chris Hipkins feeling bullish in the lead up to October 14th.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Well, here we are. Finally in the last week of an election campaign between the most incompetent cohort of politicians seen in a long time and wouldn't you know it, an international geo-political crisis just to accentuate that statement.
Obviously, Nanaia Mahuta sympathises with Palestinians. She feels they've been colonised the same way Maori were. That doesn't make her an anti-Semite.
BUT- you must condemn a surprise raid on civilians that killed thousands.
She didn't, while the rest of the world did. So it was left to Chris Hipkins to do the right thing.
Isn't that just like Labour. The few competent people trying to tidy up after the incompetent after yet another cock up.
So why do I think this is the most incompetent cohort of politicians? They all blow in the breeze and will say anything to get the job.
It started when Hipkins got the big job and started the bonfire of the policies, leaving me to ask whether he stood for anything at all.
Since then, he's announced more and more spending despite advice to tai hoa and pay down debt
It continued when National announced that to afford tax cuts for landlords and the middle class, they had to impose a wealth tax on rich foreigners. What a mixed up ideology.
Christopher Luxon announced he could work with Winston Peters just two weeks ago, but now he's taking out full page ads telling voters not to vote for Winston. This is a mess entirely of the leaders' own making.
Meanwhile, Winston tells the world in a debate that he doesn't support GST-free fruit and veg even though it's there on his party's website. 15 minutes later it isn't.
As Ben Thomas said: "Imagine being in Winston's team and having to concoct and then delete whole policies in real time as he is thundering on live tv."
And now we've got National suggesting we may need a second election and Hipkins agreeing he'd rather have a second election than break his promise about not working with NZ First. So why not cancel the first election and go straight to the second? That's me being facetious.
What a mess. How can I vote for any of them?
But saying that all politicians are useless - don't vote is the sort of empty thing that Russell Brand would say.
So my final word before this election is just vote for the party that matches how your gut feels.
This is a vibe election. So just do it and we'll fix it all up on Monday.
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This time next week, this time next Monday, we'll have all had our say and the Government who will lead the country for the next three years will have been elected, or will it?
National and Labour have raised the possibility of another election if they fail to get the votes they need to form a government, if their partner parties fail to get sufficient votes to form a government.
Yet more proof, as if anyone needed, that MMP is not the best form of proportional representation.
Still, it's the one we've got and we're stuck with it for now - and I think far from it being a landslide to the right-wing parties, it looks like it's going to be a tight race.
I don't know if our bet was a bottle of pinot noir or a case, Muz? Muz is a texter from Hawkes Bay who predicted National would absolutely romp home. But I think if it's as close as some polls are predicting, then the bets off with honours even.
I'm very happy, to send you either the bottle or the case depending on what we decided if National is a shoe in, but I just don't think it's going to be as emphatic as the last election was.
I was in the Albany Mall on Sunday and there were queues of people waiting to cast their vote. I don't think voter apathy is a problem this election.
The leaders of the respective parties may not have the razzle dazzle stardust factor, but I think that's a jolly good thing. I don't even think it's an election of which direction we want the country to go.
More an election of how we feel the past six years have been. There's no doubt some people will have had a great six years. Others have not, and they look at Labour's record and wonder how on Earth they can even muster 27% of the public vote as the polls have it.
Some tribal voters have gone Green, they cannot bear to go to the other side. Some have gone pink/yellow, because they cannot bear to go to the other side, but they're finding their traditional party of choice has been found wanting.
But at least people are voting and that's a win for democracy. I don't like talk of a second election.
I mean, it's not the end of the world if we have a second election. But basically, it's telling voters we don't accept your vote.
Not good enough voter, back to the ballot box you go and try again. And there are some parties, or at least one, some parties and political leaders I would never, ever in a million years vote for, but other people are perfectly entitled to.
That's democracy and if that's the party they want to represent them, then they will tick that box.
Anyway, hopefully it's a clear-cut result whichever way it goes. This time next week, we'll know what the country has decided. We also know whether the All Blacks are in or out of the Rugby World Cup as well on a sidebar.
But it's the election I'm looking forward to because I just do not take for granted the right to be able to peacefully vote in a new Government, keep in an existing Government.
Vote out an existing Government. To be able to do that peacefully, to be able to have the right to cast your vote is not something we should ever take lightly.
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Former TVNZ Political Editor Mark Sainsbury and former Labour Chief of Staff Mike Munro join Nick Mills for Politics Monday on election week.
Together they discuss the likelihood of a second election, what drives Winston Peters to be back in Parliament, whether National's tax plan was deceiving, and how the two major party leaders compare to each other.
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One of the many things that are hopefully on the new government’s radar come October 15 is the state of our cities.
I mean yes our communities and our suburbs are in dire straits too getting ravaged by crime and unruly gangs in many places, but our CBDs are a mess - they’re unsavoury places.
They don’t feel safe anymore. I get people messaging me every day about the CBD, particularly Auckland, and what a mess it is, or how embarrassed they are of it. Which is a shame because parts of it are really cool.
There are cute little precincts and awesome little shopping areas which have been hijacked by dickheads and losers.
Two messages I got just this week, from two completely different people, travelling in Australia at the moment.
The first one said, “In Sydney, not a road cone in sight, streets are clean, everyone looks lovely, don’t feel unsafe at all, city is buzzing, Michael Hill don’t have security guards.. didn’t realise how bad NZ was til we left.”
Another one said, “Hi Kate I’m in Sydney. What I have learnt being here only two days is they know how to do things right, and clearly NZ doesn’t. The city also has a vibe and you can feel it. Auckland city feels like a morgue.”
Now these messages make me sad, as a born and bred Aucklander, who was once a proud participant in city life, it’s heartbreaking to see what it’s come to. It’s a crying shame the very same streets I frequented as a teenager at night, I now warn my own children not to go anywhere near.
But the vibe thing that second texter sent me really resonated.
The vibe is actually so important, it’s not ethereal, I think it’s true to say you can feel the vibe of a city. I felt it myself recently in Sydney. Clear as a bell, it felt awake and buzzy and energized.
And yes, markedly different to Auckland city.
I’ve thought about this a lot, because the easy answer is just leave, which actually isn’t all that easy. It’s easy to say, but pretty hard to do.
Not everybody can just pack up and leave and haul kids out of school or move away from family and friends and commitments.
You build a life in your community and in your area. I mean I admire the people that can and do, do it, successfully, but it’s not easy.
Having said that, I have an increasing number of friends who are selling up their big Auckland houses and moving out, not necessarily overseas, but just out of Auckland given it’s become so hard to live in these days.
If it’s not crime it’s sink holes, or traffic, or lack of decent public transport, or supermarket thefts or the odd car jacking.
I mean people do wonder how bad it’s going to get, how much more we have to put up with.
But I continue – perhaps naively – to have faith that we can turn it around. Looking at what Sydney does would be a good place to start.
The same way Auckland airport should look at Singapore’s Changi as a role model of how to do things properly, we should be looking to Sydney.
There’s much we could learn from how they do it. I think a big part of it is making people feel safe, is to clean up the CBDs, and I know with the number of cruise ships expected in this summer - bringing with them hundreds of thousands of new tourists, that we just have to do better and be smarter than we currently are.
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So do we have panic, or a cunning plan?
In a sign the campaign has gone way too long, the Labour Party are spending their precious energy banging on about National's tax policy.
They are suggesting they are now falling apart and are doing this, mainly because they don't want to talk about their record.
The prize for hyperbole over the weekend goes to Chris Hipkins, who saw a "resurgence" this week and a "big poll surprise".
If you check the numbers Labour are at least 10 points behind National and there are, allegedly, 10 percent undecided. So that would require every single undecided voter to break Labour's way.
Guess what? That ain't happening.
As regards National, in suggesting a new election all it does is remind us that we never had to be here and that they should have ruled New Zealand First out before Labour did and, as a result, it would have been a non-issue.
There is a right-wing party that will do well today in the regional elections in Germany. But no one will work with them so they are not in play. The Germans get it, we clearly don't.
The interesting thing about a new election is we have never had one and who would be punished if we did?
Normally when you call a snap poll the way Robert Muldoon did all those years ago, you need a very good reason because people don't like to vote twice, or earlier than is necessary. All over the world early polls generally punish those who call them.
So would National get punished or New Zealand First?
My guess is National would have to explain the negotiations, what was asked for, what was rejected and why, and then say we found the requests from Winston Peters so egregious we would be more decisive in the second vote.
Here is one out of left field for you - what about National and New Zealand First doing a deal, with Act so repulsed they sit on the cross benches?
Anyway, back to reality. None of it is going to happen, which is the sad, mad thing about this whole last week.
We are so far into the weeds of bitching, moaning, backstabbing and inventing weird conspiracies that Saturday can't come fast enough.
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Labour is angling for another go in Government.
The polls haven’t been kind to them as New Zealanders increasingly agree that it’s time for another party to give it a shot.
Chris Hipkins joined Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking for a rigorous interview to see if Labour is worth another term.
Hosking grilled the Labour leader on their key policies, getting right down to the gritty details and seeing if they stack up.
Will Labour be able to fix the problems of their previous terms?
Should voters trust Labour to be “in it” for them?
Mike Hosking found out.
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National's Deputy Leader Nicola Willis is defending the party warning of a second election.
The party has ramped up efforts to keep New Zealand First out of the mix - warning there's a growing possibility National wouldn't be able to get a deal done.
Willis told Kate Hawkesby there's always a risk they won't get enough support.
She says a lot of people already believe there's going to be a change - but they have to vote.
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Claims National is trying to scare people away from voting for New Zealand First.
The party has released messaging warning that there's a real possibility of a second election if they can't get a coalition deal across the line with Winston Peters party.
ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says they're bluffing and that it would be incredibly unlikely.
He believes a move like that could frustrate the electorate.
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The Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and leaves hundreds dead in fighting.
Professor of politics and director of international studies at the University of Otago, Robert Patman, joined the Weekend Collective to give his insight.
Plus, with just a week away from the general election Jason Walls joins us to wrap up how the campaigns have gone.
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This week on The Sunday Panel, commentator Irene Gardiner and Freebairn and Hehir partner Liam Hehir joined in on a discussion about the following:
Could National have handled the issue of Winston Peters better? Does their reluctance to fully embrace NZ First undermine any coalition Government that is formed? What will this mean for the election?
Retail crime is surging and Kiwi businesses are embracing new facial recognition technology to address the issue- are we okay with this becoming standard practice?
Rugby World Cup- can New Zealand make it through to the quarter finals?
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We're six days away from election night- and the competition is amping up.
Next week marks the last week of the election campaign, and Luxon and Hipkins will be rallying as many votes as they can from prospective voters.
NZ Herald political editor Claire Trevett and Newstalk ZB political editor Jason Walls recap an 'odd' election campaign loaded with vandalism, lies, accusations and arguments over coalition and fiscal plans.
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As you will know by now, I love a general election; but there was a moment this week when I realized I was done.
Over it.
Counting the days until it was done and dusted.
The moment was when I saw a tweet from the current Minister of Health, which had Christopher Luxon dressed up as a chicken and a comment he should turn up to the Press’s leaders debate.
The last time I heard a person accuse someone else of being a chicken was also a heated dispute – among eight year olds. Maybe the tweet was supposed to be humorous - but there was no wit. It felt like what it was, a tired attempt to put pressure on a party with momentum by a party which is struggling.
It’s not like we’re lacking health related issues for the Minister to address.
The calls for Luxon to turn up to a debate his debating partner, a Covid isolating Chris Hipkins, couldn't attend was a waste of a couple of precious electioneering days. It's not like they were never going to meet again - we have the pleasure of another TVNZ Leaders debate this Thursday.
This nonsense summed up a campaign season filled with aggro, a touch of violence, distractions, dirt throwing, lies, misinformation, a lack of clarity around fiscal and tax policies, and vagueness around coalition possibilities.
And I’m done.
It’s not like the media, moderators and public haven’t tried to get straight answers out of politicians, but still some policy details remain elusive.
Possibly it’s because, as economists will tell you, no one knows what the next three years will throw at us so what we’re being promised is largely hypothetical. It’s frustrating for many who want change but remain unsure how it’s going to be achieved.
As we count down the final days of this campaign, Hipkins is fighting for his life and looks to finally be rallying the party faithful. Luxon has run a steady, conservative race that looks mostly like an attempt not to lose. The minor parties continue to pick up voters who don’t like what’s on offer from the main two parties, with Winston Peters looking likely to make the final call. All that craziness - and this is where we end up.
Everyone knows never to rule out Winston Peters. So did National get its coalition strategy right?
Thankfully we only have one more week to go before we find out. Maybe.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Reporter Sophie Trigger tells us how Chris Hipkins is feeling on his first day out of Covid isolation.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Editor Jason Walls talks Christopher Luxon’s walkabout in Taranaki.
He also explains National’s issues in the polls.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the latest poll numbers and National’s plan for offshore wind.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Wellington City Councillor Nicola Young and Political Commentator Brigitte Morten join Nick Mills for Friday Faceoff.
Together they discuss the race for Wellington Central, Winston Peters potentially making a comeback, the Town Hall's budget blowout, the council considering investing in the Reading Cinemas complex, and Mayor Tory Whanau hitting out at National and ACT.
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At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
NZ Rugby: 3/10
When it comes to the Ranfurly Shield, it's these sorts of examples that damage the reputation of the game, the administration, and running of the game and remind us that for all the greatness of the All Blacks and the Rugby World Cup there is a lot of very provincial, old-world dopey thinking running the machinery.
All Blacks: 7/10
Although we were always going to win, the way we did against Italy made the watch worthwhile.
The Republicans: 3/10
Between McCarthy, Matt Gaetz and Donald Trump, what a collection of dysfunctional doofuses.
Birkenstock: 7/10
The genius of taking a really rude product and yet making it worth billions in an IPO.
Weetbix: 3/10
We have supply issues - oh whoops, no we don’t. Not very Christian, is it?
The campaign: 6/10
I can't help but think it’s a week too long, considering all the policy is out. The bitching over break-ins and race and costings is getting petty. If it was over tomorrow I wouldn’t be sad.
Voting: 8/10
It's open, it's on. I voted early for the first time ever and it still feels good doing it. It’s a tangible boost to your day.
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Players in the country's space sector are optimistic over recent election commitments.
National and Labour are both promising to grow the aerospace industry, including trialling and testing new technologies.
National will also appoint New Zealand's first Minister for Space, if elected.
Rocket Lab Founder Peter Beck told Mike Hosking that the space industry isn't some future aspiration, it's current and it's booming.
Beck says having a minister and a centre of focus to signal space is something we should invest in and is a good thing.
He says the industry represents $1.7 billion annually.
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A tax expert says that National's proposed tax changes demonstrate the challenges of conveying complicated policies to the electorate.
The party is defending its policy after it was revealed just 3000 households will reap $250 in tax relief a fortnight.
They say the promised rebate to the average family always came with the caveat that it was "up to" $250.
Geof Nightingale told Mike Hosking what he thinks the situation conveys.
He says it shows policies interact in complex ways which is hard to promote simply for voters.
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As we reflect on the —let’s be frank— end of this government’s tenure, I can’t help thinking about all the stuff they dropped the ball on, that I wonder if they regret.
Mental health, the $1.9 billion none of us know where it is. Light rail. Child poverty. Kiwibuild, a tangible disaster. Not taking the country with them when they had a majority, an unheard of opportunity to take us with them, and they blew it.
The MIQ shenanigans, the shutting of the borders for so long, the crime levels, the co-governance, three waters, they had so much promise, and they just dropped the ball on it all. Too many consultants, too many reviews, too many ministers with scandals and issues that saw them off one by one, just too much chaos.
But I wonder if we only feel acutely about the stuff that affects us directly. I was in the car yesterday and heard a caller ring Kerre when she had Hipkins on. He had a question for the PM, who was sitting in his hotel room, doing the interview over Zoom. But this guy sounded really mad, he sounded emotional and he sounded angry, and you just got the sense he was speaking from the heart. And his question was about vaping.
Now I don’t know for sure if he was the Dad of some young vapers, but he sounded like he might be. He sounded personally affected by it. He started by saying to the PM – “I really don’t think you or your party have any idea what goes on in the real world.” So, a bold start to the question. He told the PM he thought he was “detached from reality”. He went on to say that one of the things that “disgusted and perplexed him the most about the Labour party was the lack of will to follow Australia’s lead around hardening up on vaping.” He said it was “akin to child abuse” in his view. He said the “fluffy regulations” they’d put in place were “a detachment from reality.”
You’ve got to ask yourself at this point if Hipkins is thinking twice about doing Zoom interviews from isolation. I mean personally if I was him and tanking in the polls like they are, and stuck in a hotel room isolating with Covid, I’d just hunker down and watch the Beckham doco on Netflix and be done with it. So you’ve got to hand it to him that he’s even still bothering turning up virtually for this stuff.
But this caller said he reckoned they’d ‘passed the buck here —passed the responsibility onto others— palming it off to retailers,’ he said. Hipkins replied with Labour’s policy on it – limit the number of vape stores nationwide to 600, and keep them away from schools etc. But he then defended not going any harder than that because he said he didn’t want people going back to smoking tobacco.
I think Hipkins missed the point, in that this caller was talking about youth access to vapes, the epidemic now so prevalent among that cohort who’re taking up vaping. So maybe they were talking at cross purposes, the PM was more interested in adults who’re giving up smoking and switching to vaping. Which perhaps made this caller’s point. A slight detachment from reality here in terms of who vaping is really harming.
And it made me think about how much of this stuff the government’s misread. And whether in their quiet moments they regret not doing more with the mandate they had from this country in 2020.
If being in politics is all about legacy, I just wonder what this past term government’s really is.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Ali Jones from Red PR and former National staffer Ben Thomas joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Sir John Key got involved in a last ditch effort to turn out voters for National, following growing fears of a three-way coalition with ACT and NZ First. Is this a sign of desperate times for National?
Grant Robertson has labelled National's tax policy a 'scam', and claimed less than one percent of all households will get the $250 relief per fortnight. Is this fair criticism? What else could National be hiding?
Is it fair to blame the Electoral Commission for all the missing vote packs if NZ Post is so slow these days? Is this a sign that we need a better system?
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Auckland's mayor has fired back at National for its claims the council has $300 million of unspent fuel tax money just sitting in its accounts.
The party is campaigning on scrapping the region's fuel tax within its first 100 days in Government, if elected.
Finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis says the revenue it has already made will continue to be available for transport projects.
But mayor Wayne Brown says that money is already committed.
"Just cause it's not in our bank- it's like if you build a house that's going to cost you $1 million, you make sure you've got $1 million before you start. As it gets built, you slowly pay for it."
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Former Prime Minister Sir John Key says he offered to endorse National in a video, urging Kiwis to vote blue and avoid uncertainty.
It was released on the Party's social media channels today.
He says it aimed to address complacency in the electorate.
"There's quite a bit of complacency in the electorate. A lot of people are saying National's going to win- look at the TAB odds, for instance- the problem with all that is, that would be great if there was predictability."
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Labour has accused National of misleading voters with their proposed tax plan.
An analysis from Council of Trade Unions (CTU) shows just 3000 households would receive the $250 per fortnight relief National promised.
National's Nicola Willis defended these figures saying the claim came with the 'up to' caveat- but admitted the 3000 figure was correct.
ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says prospective voters have a responsibility to check what they can get- but National only advertised their most favourable figures.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Reporter Sophie Trigger breaks down the latest stoush between Grant Robertson and Nicola Willis over National’s tax plan.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Editor Jason Walls tells us Christopher Luxon’s big plans for the aerospace industry.
He also looks ahead to tonight’s Minor Leaders Debate on TVNZ.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including National bringing in the big guns to drive votes and the latest from Chris Hipkins in isolation.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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I reckon the National Party is feeling more than a little bit nervous. In fact, I think it’s starting to look desperate. Almost as desperate as Labour is looking.
Because, if I go on what people left, right and centre are telling me, Labour is toast and we’re going to see a change in government. And, as far as I’m concerned, Labour deserves everything coming at it because of the way it has started promising us things that it could so easily have done any time over the past six years.
But it’s only talking about them now because it wants to be re-elected.
And National’s desperation is all of its own making too. Just like Labour.
Because, even though people are saying they definitely want change, the poll numbers aren’t quite as definitive as some voters seem to be.
The latest one came out last night —this is the 1News Verian Poll— and it had National on 36%, Labour on 26%, the Greens on 13%, ACT on 10%, and NZ First on 6%.
Plus a bunch of the other parties all bubbling away around the 2% mark.
So last night’s numbers show that National and ACT still don’t have enough support to avoid making the phone call to Winston Peters and getting NZ First involved in what I think, we all agree, would be something of a three-headed monster.
That’s what a coalition government involving Winston Peters would be.
And so today, National has rolled-out Sir John Key in a social media campaign, basically saying that anyone thinking about voting for NZ First should forget about it and vote National instead.
He isn’t as explicit as that. But it’s very clear that the call Luxon made the other week when he announced that, if he had to, he’d get on the blower to Winston Peters and talk to him about being part of a coalition government, that that has backfired on National.
Because Luxon is now realising that there is a very real prospect that, if he wants to be Prime Minister, he’s going to have Winston Peters in the mix.
So what he’s done, is he’s got former National leader Sir John Key to make a wee video using the emotion that marketers use alot of the time - fear. When they’re selling cleaning products, they try and get us all scaredy-cat about all the invisible bugs around the house, don’t they?
And that’s what Sir John is doing. He’s getting us all scaredy-cat about a National, ACT, NZ First coalition.
Now the reason this looks so desperate, is because Sir John isn’t just promoting National or writing-off the parties on the left. He’s actually trying to put the fear of God into us over a party that National has already said it will work with to form a government. If it has to.
Because Sir John is, very clearly in his video, painting a picture of the day after the election and Luxon being in a position of having to start coalition negotiations with Winston Peters.
Which we know is an absolute last resort for National. But it’s looking more and more like it’s going to be a reality. And so National is panicking. It’s getting desperate. Because the decision to rule NZ First in is backfiring on Christopher Luxon. As most of us knew it would. Right from the start.
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Not even Covid can keep Chris Hipkins down.
He joined Kerre Woodham over Zoom to take calls and answer questions.
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The Green Party's James Shaw joined Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking on the Minor Leaders Breakfast for an intense thirty-minute interview, to see if they have what it takes to make a difference in New Zealand.
Their party may be minor, but their policies aren’t.
Mike Hosking asked the questions New Zealander’s need answered to see if the policies and the politicians can hold up under pressure.
Will the minor parties be able to make a difference when it comes to crime, education, the economy, or the climate?
Is the time really now for the Green Party?
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ACT’s David Seymour joined Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking on the Minor Leaders Breakfast for an intense thirty-minute interview, to see if they have what it takes to make a difference in New Zealand.
Their party may be minor, but their policies aren’t.
Mike Hosking asked the questions New Zealander’s need answered to see if the policies and the politicians can hold up under pressure.
Will the minor parties be able to make a difference when it comes to crime, education, the economy, or the climate?
Does ACT have the ability to create “real change”?
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The Electoral Commission is being defended this morning.
About 1.4 million voters haven't received their EasyVote packs three days into the 13-day voting period.
Electoral law expert Graeme Edgeler says the thing that delays them is that the cards have party lists and the names of local candidates.
He told Mike Hosking that this delay is the norm, and it would be almost impossible to get them out on time.
Edgeler says it's difficult for them because that information was only available mid-last month.
He adds mail is not as fast as it used to be.
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I’m rallying the troops at the moment to early vote.
By troops I mean family members, but also anyone who’ll listen. So far I think just my husband, my sister and I have early voted. Others are waiting til the last minute. I’m not sure what might happen last minute that could change your mind, short of a scandal of some kind I guess. But you either like the direction the country is going and want to keep it this way, or you don’t.
At the heart of it we’re essentially voting for change or more of the same. My concern is the short memories of Kiwis as I said the other day, and how many will try to justify pepper potting their vote around like some kind of MMP pick and mix. That’ll only end in tears, probably mine if Winston has anything to do with it.
I do worry about people’s understanding of how government works that they want to appoint a troublemaker to the mix and think that’ll elicit change for this country, It won’t. it’ll just elicit chaos. And surely we’ve had enough of that. But, democracy is democracy, and we deserve what we vote for.
But I am getting a small understanding of why people aren’t enthused and maybe don’t want to vote. They’re fed up. Sick of the negativity and angst and politicians bashing between themselves. Sick of the media attempting endless gotcha moments, sick of the aggressiveness, just sick of all of it.
My sister was saying she went out to vote yesterday and there were five lovely people working at the polling station so delighted to see her because she was the only one there. Not another soul in sight, she’s in Christchurch. She felt like the only person early voting in her area. She said they couldn’t thank her enough for coming in. But she’s sick to the back teeth of all of it and has tuned out.
She says this campaign feels like the comments section on Facebook, and reminds her why she’s not on Facebook. She said it’s just dissolved into a name calling, back stabbing, petty little hate fest, full of bitterness and negativity and it’s a total turn off. She can’t wait for it to be over, she said they’re all acting like children. The politicians that is, and the media. She said they’re all as bad as each other and she’s sick of them.
And that sort of helps explain the disconnect by those who’re not engaged and not enthused. I mean I genuinely hope early voting numbers pick up, and people do exercise their right to vote, but I can see how the acrimony is a turn off. I think most campaigns descend into this kind of stupidity and pettiness but we’re so far into the weeds now and I just don’t think people care about the minutiae, I don’t think they care who did or didn’t turn up for a debate, or who said what about who, they just don’t care.
They want to know how they’re going to pay their mortgage and how much petrol’s going to cost, and whether their local Dairy will continue to get ram raided and if their streets will ever feel safe again and whether they’ll ever get seen at A&E, or their kids will get a good education.
They want the fundamentals to be right and the direction and vision for the country to be heading in the right way. But with this endless bickering and noise, all it does is drive people to the fringes – to the old punishment vote, or the ‘I’ll show them!’ vote, and those are all wasted votes. They’re not votes that’ll elicit fundamental change.
So, 9 days out, it’s safe to say I still feel none the wiser as to how this could go.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Curia pollster David Farrar and Jack Tame from ZB's Saturday Mornings and Q&A joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Deputy National leader Nicola Willis has criticised former National minister Paula Bennett for posting a public photo with ACT's Brooke van Velden. Is this an endorsement, or are we overthinking this?
Nanaia Mahuta is facing a threat from Maori Party candidate Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke - do you reckon it's possible Mahuta gets kicked out by a 20-year old?
Richard Prebble made a case for Jacinda Ardern getting involved in Labour's campaign to give it an extra boost- is this a good idea?
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Little surprise the Official Cash Rate remains unchanged- for the time being.
The Reserve Bank has today held the OCR at 5.5 percent, claiming interest rates are constraining economic activity as required.
Milford Asset Management's Katlyn Parker says there's a lot of uncertainty around this point in the election campaign, and the RBNZ will be waiting for a change.
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Goldman Sachs analysts have warned National's proposed tax cuts could risk worsening existing economic pressures.
Andrew Boak and William Nixon believe National's plan could exacerbate inflation, and therefore cause interest rates to remain higher for longer.
NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny agrees, claiming National's proposed foreign buyers tax and increased immigration fees won't offset the stimulatory impact of the cuts.
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Grant Robertson's reflected on his Government's record on student poverty, after a confrontation at a Wellington university today.
After Robertson cast his vote at Victoria University, a student initiated a testy exchange, asking about Labour's rejection of a universal student allowance.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Grant Robertson's defence was fair, as Labour removed first-year fees during their term.
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The latest One News/ Verian poll shows NZ First still holds the balance of power.
Labour is stagnant at 26 percent, National's leading with 36 percent- but ACT has dropped two points to 10 percent, meaning they'll need NZ First to reach the threshold.
National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis isn't confident Winston Peters will stand by a possible National/ACT coalition.
"It's been 27 years since he's gone with us, so we've said- look, that's a last resort phone call we're prepared to make, but our message is really clear. If you want a change in Government, cast your vote for National."
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Reporter Sophie Trigger paints the picture of Christopher Luxon’s visit to the West Coast.
Political Editor Jason Walls discusses what happened to Grant Robertson at Victoria University – and tells us what’s got Chris Hipkins riled up from isolation.
And Newstalk ZB’s Joey Dwyer talks us through candidate debates in Epsom and Tamaki.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including Labour MPs still supporting a wealth tax and calls rural support is moving from National to Act.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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We thought we'd have a look at the different health policies from the various parties and get your thoughts on what would benefit you, your community, those you love the most.
National announced yesterday that after birth hospital stays for mothers would be extended to three days, an extra 24 hours. That children and young people under 18 with type one diabetes would be provided free continuous glucose monitors, and that they would increase the number of training places for psychologists and psychiatric registrars.
ACT announced yesterday a medicine strategy that would require Medsafe to approve, within one week, any drug or medical device that has been approved by two foreign regulatory bodies that have the same, or more robust systems, compared with New Zealand.
National’s already announced it will allocate $280 million in ring fenced funding to Pharmac over 4 years to pay for 13 cancer treatments; for lung, bowel, kidney, melanoma, head and neck cancer that are funded in Australia but not New Zealand.
Labour has already promised a billion dollars for Pharmac to do with as it wishes and free dental care for under 30s.
And what's the Greens health policy? Well, thank you for asking.
Top priority for them is to reconfigure our health system towards recognising and acting on oppressive and intersecting biases. For example, racism, sexism, ableism, fat phobia, ageism, queerphobia, and transphobia, and the knowledge and skills required to work with affected communities such as deaf and disabled people, its top priority for them.
So which of the parties policies resonates most for you? I have to say the number of Give a Little pages I’ve contributed to recently for some gorgeous young Kiwis, young parents, some in their late 30s, early 40s, terribly ill with bowel cancer and who are having to raise money for non-funded treatments to give them a fighting chance of seeing their kids get one year older.
I've also heard how life changing the continuous glucose monitors are for families. If you don't know anything about type 1 diabetes, a) lucky you and b) you probably have no idea. I didn't. Just how traumatic and life changing it is for families.
I thought it was something you just got medicine for, and you lived life pretty much as normal. But for parents of young children who have type 1 diabetes, they have to get up throughout the night to ensure that their children's blood sugar level doesn't fall to a dangerous level. I had no idea how impactful it was on families and how dangerous and life-threatening type 1 diabetes can be, especially in younger children who can't manage it themselves. They're very expensive too for a lot of families, they have to fund raise or rely on the kindness of strangers to get a continuous glucose monitors, so I imagine that will be life changing for some people.
Three days in hospital after having a baby. I'm not so sure they'll be able to deliver on that National, and whether many people will want to. I've said before, it used to be a fantasy of mine that I'd have a minor accident that would require about a week in hospital with crisp white hospital sheets and lovely, caring, attentive nurses mopping my fevered brow, and a vase full of daffodils and open windows and fresh air and beautiful food arriving.
Well, you know, that is just that, a fantasy now. That's not what happens in hospitals now. I don't know how many hospitals would have beds for mums and babies to be able to stay for three days. For those of you under 40, back in the day when I had my daughter, in antediluvian times, I got a week. A room of my own, a week.
There was absolutely nothing wrong with either of us, it was a perfectly straightforward birth and you got a week to loll about and receive guests and learn how to cope with this new baby. It was brilliant, but there was time, and there were beds, and there was staff, and I just don't think that's the case these days.
They've been bribing women to leave hospital early for years because of bed and staff shortages. Remember, 15 odd years ago, they were offering women a month's supply of disposable nappies if they’d buggar off and take their baby with them. Some women turned around within a matter of hours.
So I'm not sure they'd be able to deliver on three days, and I'm not entirely sure families would want to be there for three days.
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Everybody Eats Restaurant Manager Jack Rainey and Lowe & Co Managing Director Craig Lowe join Nick Mills on the Business Panel.
Together they discuss the Wellington Town Hall's skyrocketing restoration costs, the upcoming election, crime in the CBD, housing supply in the capital, and plans to remove cars from the Golden Mile.
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Should I have been surprised?
The debate around the Press debate has entered day two. If it carries on today that’s day three and that's two days too many.
Sure, it's news that a Prime Minister gets ill and can't attend a pre-arranged event. But that’s about it.
There is a certain irony that, having spent the past week deciding broadly that debates are a bit of a waste of time, certain players should be wasting energy and going out of their way to scrap over yet another one.
In a sad kind of way it displays just how lost the Labour Party are. Even if you accept Chris Hipkins won the second debate, nothing has changed. The needle didn’t move.
Chris Luxon didn’t fall apart, he just wasn’t as interested in yelling over people as Hipkins was. As one reviewer put the Newshub debate, it was more game show than game changer.
To an extent, it's all Labour have left. Voting is underway, they are a mile behind, there isn't a poll that shows their three-way combo of craziness can get the numbers required, so what have they got to lose?
Well, quite a bit actually. One school of thought, surely, is that each debate they run the risk of losing.
Debate one they lost and they interjected their way to victory in debate two. Although, it's important to point out that it was the so-called media experts that called it for Hipkins. An online poll in the NZ Herald using real people had it for Luxon. Either way there is risk.
Labour might want to try and sure-up their vote and hope it doesn’t sink further.
Here is the simple truth if you are Luxon - why bother? His final week is full. I have seen the agenda and he is all over the country.
He is in the lead, he has the momentum and his final week and his schedule is carefully controlled. Why shake it up because the Prime Minister got sick?
Control the narrative, say the stuff you want to say and wait for the numbers to roll in Saturday night. Besides, there is already the previously scheduled debate on TV1 next Thursday.
The nonsense about Christchurch and the South island and a large audience smacks of desperation. It was on, one bloke couldn’t do it, it's now off. That's life.
You probably would have gained more brownie points by calling it off straight away and saving those of us who are left, and can be bothered to watch, a couple of hours of yet more regurgitated material, mixed with inaudible bickering.
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National and Labour are continuing to argue over who's going to rely on who to form a government after next week's election.
National's Mark Mitchell told Mike Hosking that Labour will need to make concessions to form a government with the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori.
But Labour's Megan Woods says that National and Act will have to submit to the wishes of Winston Peters and New Zealand First.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Neale Jones from Capital and Infrastructure NZ CEO Nick Leggett joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Chris Luxon says he'll be active in Christchurch next Tuesday, but there's no room in his itinerary for a rescheduled Press debate. The event due to happen tonight was called off after Chris Hipkins got Covid. Is this cowardice on Luxon's part- or a clever strategy from National?
Sanitarium says it will reinstate supplies of Weet-Bix to The Warehouse after last week's controversy. Did they make this choice because of the mass backlash?
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Until Monday, no-one knew the name of the reclusive Pennsylvanian millionaire regularly visiting Hawke's Bay.
Sean Colgan found himself in the spotlight after it was revealed he'd been lending his private plane to ACT's David Seymour.
BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie's been digging into his background- and earlier investments during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Chris Luxon says he'll be in Christchurch next Tuesday - but still has no time for the Press debate.
Hipkins is unable to make the Press leaders debate, which was due to be held tonight, as he's tested positive for Covid-19.
Luxon has been accused of chickening out of the debate by Labour.
ZB political editor Jason Walls accuses Labour of being 'churlish', allowing Luxon to take the high road.
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A political commentator says he doubts an incorrect email sent by the Council of Trade Unions was a genuine mistake.
The CTU's email sent on Sunday night incorrectly claimed National would remove policies like 10 days sick leave and the Winter Energy Payment.
It has now clarified it meant to say they are things National has opposed in the past.
Commentator Peter Dunne says the CTU economist previously gave advice to Grant Robertson.
He says they'd know what was supported by whom.
"And I think the fact that they can get so much of it so wrong suggests that he's either not done his job, or more likely, it was a deliberate attempt to deceive."
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Is Chris Luxon chickening out of the press debate tonight? Of course he is chickening out.
Sure, his campaign diary will be full and it’ll be a pain in the butt to rearrange things to fit in an afternoon and evening in Christchurch, because it is a several hours long operation to get ready for a debate and then do the debate.
But if he really wanted to do it, he would. He just doesn’t.
Fair enough- he's leading in the polls, and there’s no reason to do that debate because Luxon's not great in long debates and interviews. I mean he holds his own, but he gets tripped up on detail.
The TV3 Paddy Gower debate- he got himself tied up in knots over whether kids who take MDMA at festivals are criminals or not.
The 2 hour long interview with Mike Hosking yesterday- he said it was up to the Police Minister to fire the Police Commissioner. But actually it’s not, it's up to the Prime Minister… which would be him.
Those don’t matter too much because they’re not big missteps- yet.
So doing the debate would just help Chippy. And remember, it was that TV3 debate where Chippy came out firing that actually breathed life into his campaign again.
Chippy wants it badly, because he needs the audience. Luxon doesn’t.
So yeah, Luxon’s chickening out. But he’s also making what is - for him - a smart strategic decision.
And the best of all is that we don’t have to sit through another debate in this boring campaign.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Reporter Sophie Trigger discusses the National Party’s latest health pledges – and how they’ll sit with voter.
She also paints the picture of Christopher Luxon’s visit to a retirement home and his walkabout at Riccarton Mall.
Plus, she gives us the latest on Chris Hipkins’ health.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including Rawiri Waititi’s comments about democracy and doubts whether tonight’s cancelled debate is a major loss for voters.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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I think it's a little bit rich when you've got Chris Hipkins cancelling a debate because of Covid and people send him "best wishes" and "get well soon"s, instead of accepting the good wishes graciously and using the time to recover at home, out go attack ads saying Chris Luxon is a chicken for refusing to reschedule the debate.
They offered to put up Kelvin Davis against Christopher Luxon, but that's hardly like for like is it? National said no, if it's going to be a battle of the deputies, sure, we'll put up Nicola Willis. Labour said no, that's not good enough, we need to reschedule.
These are the last few days of the election campaign. If Labour's diary is yawning and open and has plenty of spaces that says more about them, I think than it does about National. It's really, really hard to find time to reschedule. You know, we're doing that with Christopher Luxon's team. They want to come back on. They suggested Thursday, but he's already been on for two hours with Mike, we think that might be a little bit of overkill. So they're trying to find a space in their diary with the best will in the world. To call him a chicken for refusing to debate Kelvin Davis!
It's incredible to me to think that Chris Hipkins’ team did think he did such an amazing job in the last debate, like he was so brilliant, absolutely on fire, that Christopher Luxon is running scared. I don't know what debate they watched, but that's not what I saw. I saw Chris Hipkins looking better and improved, but certainly not enough to strike fear into his opponent. It just looks a bit like dirty pool. You pulled out, your problem. Don't make it Christopher Luxon’s and his teams.
Onto the announcement yesterday from Labour saying that they were going to look at bank rolling companies who want to enter the New Zealand grocery market, in a bid to break up the supermarket duopoly. They've been gunning for the supermarkets for some time –remember the Commission of Inquiry into supermarkets? Labour's commerce and Consumer affairs spokesman Duncan Webb said if re-elected, Labour's support for new companies could include finance, making sure land was available, regulatory changes, incubating innovation and accelerating competition.
Webb said the behaviour by Sanitarium, who of course refused to supply The Warehouse with Weet-Bix, citing ‘supply issues’, highlighted why the existing players couldn't be trusted to sort out the market. The inquiry into competition in the grocery business showed the two big companies that control the grocery industry are making excess profits of around $1 million a day.
I don't know what excess profits are. What's the excess? How much are you allowed to make before it becomes excess? So I've never really understood what they mean by excess profits, but nonetheless, following the inquiry, Labour established a grocery code of conduct, appointed a Commissioner, banned restrictive land agreements that locked new entrants out of locations for new supermarkets (which I think that was a good move), made unit pricing mandatory and required major grocery retailers to open wholesale offerings. But that's apparently not enough, hence the government saying, hey, if we get in anybody who wants to start up a grocery store contact us.
Why? Why would you do that? Well, the founder of online grocery retailer Supie, Sarah Balle, spoke to the Mike Hosking Breakfast, and she supports the idea of Government funding.
“Government funding has delivered us a national airline, being Air New Zealand, it has delivered us rural broadband to areas across New Zealand so that we don't have Internet poverty. We have Government funded electricity companies, so there's absolutely a case to be made to ensure that we don't have food poverty in New Zealand. The Government is investing in a supermarket that generates returns that we can pull back into supporting food producers and really improving the health of our population.”
Umm, but are they? I mean, basically all they say it would be is a loan. It's not like they're going to take any of the profits that may or may not be made by the retailer and put them back into the food supplies. All they’ve said is they'll supply a loan.
ACT says it's a form of woolly corporate welfarism. National says taxpayer money should not be used to prop up or support a new entrant into the market. There's no guarantee it'll be a success. And I do wonder at the wisdom of bankrolling wannabe grocers when the big multinational companies around the world have had a look at New Zealand and said Yeah, Nah.
Grant Robertson sees the multinationals have had a look. He cited German discount supermarket ALDI as one of the players in the Australian market that people can take a look at. A spokesman for ALDI confirmed it has no current plans to expand into New Zealand. It'd be great if it did. They set up shop in Australia in 2001 and helped drive down prices. Although it took more than a decade for it to become the country's third biggest player. It costs a lot to establish a nationwide supermarket. It costs a lot to hang in there for 10 years to become profitable.
So is that what we want to do with taxpayer money? Have a punt on another supermarket? Supie is looking to expand. It's an online grocery startup, but it says it's signed up about 55,000 customers, has about 130 staff and is now planning physical stores and has already mapped out of first location. They want to be a disruptor, much like 2degrees. Supie wants a slice of the estimated $22 billion supermarket industry, which is controlled by store-owner co-operative Foodstuffs and Australian retail giant Woolworths through its Countdown chain.
Should the government be bankrolling people who want to have the Super yachts, who want to have the lovely luxury lifestyle that they see, you know, the supermarket owners in their district having? They look at the trappings of success and think, I want a bit of that. They don't realise that these people have been working 18/19/20-hour days on the shop floor for years and years and years before the pay off.
And how would it work? Do the profits go back to the Government to go back to the food producer, as Sarah was saying? I don't think so.
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The feathers are flying with Labour accusing Christopher Luxon of being too chicken to front up to a leaders debate here in Christchurch.
And I mean, literally, too chicken. Because it’s going nuts on social media saying Luxon’s running scared with a photo of him in a chicken suit.
And I reckon National will be quietly loving it. Because how desperate does Labour look? How desperate? Very desperate.
So a bit of background. Chris Hipkins has got COVID, he’s isolating in a hotel and so can’t make it tonight - which is when the debate was going to be held in the Christchurch Town Hall in front of a couple of thousand people and beamed out online, as well.
It seems that Labour has been bending over backwards to try and re-schedule. But National isn’t quite so forthcoming with alternative dates.
Which is a bit of an understatement, actually. What National is saying is that Christopher Luxon is booked-up every night between now and the election and ‘no can do’.
It has suggested that perhaps the deputy leaders of Labour and National could have a debate instead. But we know why it’s suggesting that, don’t we? National’s Nicola Willis would wipe the floor with Labour’s Kelvin Davis. So, of course, Labour would never go for that.
So Labour is saying National is taking advantage of Hipkins being crook and it is running scared.
I read something where Megan Woods was saying something along the lines of Christopher Luxon being spooked by Chris Hipkins’ strong performance in the second televised leaders debate last week, and so he’s taking any chance he can get to avoid the Christchurch debate.
The National Party says that's nonsense. Which I agree with, by the way. Because Luxon hasn’t pulled out at all. Hipkins has pulled out because he’s stuck in a hotel room with COVID. So no-one’s to blame.
Hipkins has pulled-out - for perfectly good reasons. He’s got the COVID. And Luxon can’t re-schedule because he’s got other stuff on.
Although, I thought that National’s campaign boss Chris Bishop was a bit over-the-top yesterday when he said “guess what, people in the South Island have TV” - saying we’re not missing out at all, because we can still watch next week's debate on the telly.
If there’s any legitimate question to ask National about this, is how committed it really is to the South Island. And I’ll be asking Christopher Luxon that, when he’s here between 10 and 10:30.
Because, even though ‘yes, we do have TVs here in the South Island’ - as Chris Bishop said yesterday. Even though we can watch the debate next week from a TV studio in Auckland, there is nothing like locals having the chance to see the leaders of the two main parties in the flesh.
And having the chance to raise local issues with the two guys who want to be leading the next government after the election in just under two weeks.
But, as they say, it is what it is. And not much can be done about it. In fact, nothing can be done about it. Hipkins can’t make it tonight and Luxon is busy every other night.
And Labour just needs to get over it. It needs to drop the stupid ads on social media. Can you believe that this close to the election, it’s put thought, time and energy into making ads with Christopher Luxon dressed-up in a chicken suit?
Not to mention the fact that it is just so child-ish. And this is where a very clear distinction is starting to emerge between the two main parties. And it’s why - whether you like him or not - Christopher Luxon is looking more and more like a Prime Minister.
And, because of Labour’s stupid antics - especially this stuff with Luxon dressed as a chicken - because of this stuff, Chris Hipkins is looking less-and-less like a Prime Minister.
Thanks to some turkeys behind the scenes at Labour thinking it looks really clever.
Well it doesn’t. It’s the complete opposite. It looks desperate. And has egg all over its face.
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Chris Luxon told Canterbury Mornings the photoshopped pictures of him wearing a chicken suit circulating social media, after pulling out of The Press Leader's debate, was "a load of rubbish".
"Let's be clear, [Chris Hipkins] is isolating in his hotel with Covid, we're ten days from an election and we have a debate next week anyway with TVNZ," the National leader said.
"We have a busy schedule... you know what the last ten days of an election campaigning are like."
Although he's across the country pushing his party's agenda - Luxon doesn't plan to bring his National Party campaign bus to the South Island.
"It would take too long to bring across the ferry."
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The most shameful promise this election came from Labour, who promised in 2017 to increase the breast screening age, and then for six years didn’t do anything.
And now they are promising it again, as though you are supposed to believe them and things will be different.
The most ridiculous promise came yesterday, suggesting Labour are now wanting to run a Four Square.
It would be a Government-run supermarket, or at least they want to help you get into one. They want to be an investor in the supermarket business.
When the market study, as done by the Commerce Commission, was first mooted by David Clark, who in his own way has done as much damage to the economy as anyone, he didn’t rule out the Government getting involved in the supermarket business.
At the time we laughed and ridiculed it because it was so absurd but we didn’t, or at least I didn't, actually think it would lead anywhere.
To be frank, it still won't lead anywhere because the election for Labour is over. But the fact that things have got this mad and this unhinged shows you just how tragic it has all become.
David Clark by the way, in the current Commerce Commission market study into banks, has been mentioned as well. Not only did he cycle his way through the Covid lockdown, not only did he want to run a supermarket, but his CCCFA reform might well be the biggest reason first-home buyers in particular have not been able to get access to money.
His initial reforms were so haphazard that the banks screamed at him to not go as far as he did. When he ignored them, he got dragged back to the table to have another crack, a crack he suggested had sorted matters. Fast forward to the study and the banks are busy telling us it's been a complete disaster, and some banks are skirting the rules simply to be able to get people into homes.
Armed with that intel, why wouldn’t a genius like that and his mates want to dabble in retail?
Given Labour's record on delivery, what fool would even consider going into business with them selling apples? Or any other grocery item?
Government-run supermarkets is the stuff of communism and third world backwaters.
And as close as we may have gotten to that status, surely most of us are bright enough to work out they have completely and utterly lost the plot.
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Labour's committing to further shake-ups within the supermarket sector in a bid to break up the grocery duopoly.
While details are in the early stages, help with finances, gaining land space, and making regulator changes are on the cards.
Labour Leader, Chris Hipkins, told Mike Hosking a new competitor won't enter the market without Government support.
He doesn't believe it would be in the form of a grant, but rather a loan or financing for establishment.
Hipkins says all options are on the table and bringing in an overseas chain like Aldi would be massive for the country.
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Political candidates are facing increased violence.
National says a volunteer's faced death threats, another was attacked by a dog, and one candidate has moved house after threats from a gang.
In the past week, Labour's Angela Roberts says she was slapped at a debate, and Te Pati Maori's Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke says her home was invaded.
Parliamentary Service Chief Executive Rafael Gonzalez-Montero told Mike Hosking that they've seen a rise in attacks and intimidation this election campaign.
He says what's concerning is volunteers and support staff are also experiencing it.
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I went out in search of some democracy yesterday, trying to early vote.
I looked up on the Vote NZ website where in my area had early voting places open and what time. I headed out on a walk confident I’d found the place but as I rocked up there, the lights were out; the first bad sign. Then I saw an actual sign on the ground, blown over in the wind, it said ‘no early voting here until October 9th’.
So back to the website I went, determined to find a place. Turns out it couldn’t have been easier, the local Westfield mall had a huge polling station open, lots of bright orange signage and as it turns out, lots of people looking to early vote. I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised, they say about two thirds of us early vote usually, and they’re expecting more this time round. I think they were saying they're expecting about 80% of Kiwis to early vote this time.
We stood in line behind a man in a suit who was talking to another man who’d not even registered to vote but wanted to. So he was in the special vote line, registering and enrolling on the spot so he could cast a vote. The man in the suit said to us he’d been waiting so long for this day and he was so excited to finally get to vote. He wasn’t even in his electorate, but you don’t need to be in your electorate, or even enrolled, or have your voting card on you, just turn up, they sort it. It’s too easy.
So don't think you've got to wait for your vote card... you don't. After I did my ticking, it was my husband’s turn. He wasn’t going to vote early, he’s all about tradition and doing it on the day and he had fond memories of walking to the local church with the kids when they were old enough to vote, and us all voting together in a nice big family outing. But these days barely any of our voting age kids live in NZ, or even Auckland, so I reminded him his trip down memory lane while sweet, was not going to be recreated this time.
As he went into the booth to cast his vote, a lady in the booth next to him popped her head up over the top and said to him, “Two ticks Chippy?” So shout out to her for being hilarious and making the experience even more fun.
And I mean it when I say fun. I actually love voting. I love exercising our right to democracy, I love that we can, I never take it for granted. Every time I’m in the polling station I think of all the places where they can’t do this or can’t do it with any freedom or integrity anyway. I mean it might not always go your way, and you might not like the system, but at least you have the right to do it. Nothing's stopping you from doing it.
I can’t understand people who say they don’t vote. It’s a right we fought for and are so lucky to have. It’s one of the few times you get to have a tangible real say in what you want for our country. We get to participate in democracy, we get to have our voice heard. It’s a privilege. I think it’s churlish to snub that privilege and just say you can’t be bothered, or you hate all politicians or there’s no point. There is a point. You get to do something many countries shed blood over, go to war over, but not here.
The fact we get a voice, and get to have it heard, is something to be celebrated, and it’s something I will never take for granted.
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Last week's Mood of the Boardroom survey ranked National's Chris Luxon over his Labour counterpart.
The survey compiled responses from more than 100 chief executives and leaders- with Luxon scoring 3.24 out of 5 compared to Hipkins' 2.95.
NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan says voters are still sceptical of National's tax package, with experts criticising the party's priorities.
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Labour may need to change gear for the next week of election campaigning.
Party leader and incumbent Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has Covid and will isolate for five days, or until he tests negative.
Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson says these circumstances aren't ideal, but Labour has a big team of candidates and volunteers raising support on the campaign trail.
"There's not a lot we can do about it now, it is what it is. Chris is going to be doing some virtual campaigning, some phone calling, he's going to be continuing to do what he can over the next few days."
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National has disclosed allegations of violence and intimidation threatening to disrupt their election campaign.
Allegations claim a gang threat has forced a candidate to move house, a volunteer's faced death threats, and another's been the victim of a dog attack.
Labour's Angela Roberts has reported being slapped at a debate, and Te Pati Maori's Hana Maipi-Clarke says she's had a politically-motivated home invasion.
National Campaign Chair Chris Bishop says the gangs are campaigning for a third Labour term and aim to keep National out of Government.
"The behaviour our candidates have experienced on the campaign trail has been disgraceful. There's been death threats, there's been people having to move house, one of our candidates has had a Head Hunters member threaten them when they're out at dinner."
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Every Monday until the election, The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis.
This week, the The Spinoff’s Editor-at-Large Toby Manhire steps in for Barry Soper.
Our expert panel discusses the call that this election campaign is being marred by violence and attacks across the political spectrum.
They also chat about Chris Hipkins’ Covid diagnosis and the implications that will have on the final fortnight of campaigning.
The experts dissect that interview with Winston Peters – and if that means National should re-think its stance to work with NZ First.
Heather asks the panel whether the rise in early voting will continue – and what that might mean for the result on October 14th.
Plus, they take a deep dive into the latest policy announcements – including the Greens’ universal student allowance and Labour’s supermarket pledge.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Reporter Sophie Trigger gives us the implications of Chris Hipkins’ Covid diagnosis.
And she talks us through Labour’s latest attack line against National.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Editor Jason Walls tells us all about the classic campaign set piece, the politician voting.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the Greens going hard to win more electorates and Chris Luxon getting frustrated over questions about his faith.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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I want to start the show with tributes to 3 people.
The first is Brooke Graham. My neighbour and friend from the Coromandel who died recently at the age of just 42 from brain cancer. A fast death inside 9 weeks but slow enough for her to make plans for her 10 year old daughter and her husband. Hers was a death of great grace and I am immensely sad. So to Carrick and MacKenzie, here's to your amazing wife and mother.
Then there's Simon Barnett and his support of his wife, Jodi over the past 6 years in her fight against brain cancer as well. This was featured in the Weekend Herald on Saturday. Of course all of us here have on the afternoon show have known what Simon and his family have been going through. His strength, courage and love while still working this demanding job is amazing. It's good that you now know.
And finally I want to acknowledge Richie Poulton, the director of the Dunedin study who passed away yesterday at the age of 61, again of cancer.
Richie and I were at Auckland Grammar together. In the same cohort were people like Martin Crowe and Grant Fox and business people Ian Narev and Simon Herbert. But Richie is the best of all of us. At school he was smart and sporty. I knew him as a nice bloke and a very good cricketer. I had no idea of the greatness within him. He was featured last night on the Sunday programme. It was a heart-breaking watch.
Now, if you don't know, the Dunedin Study is a research programme that has followed the progress of 1,000 children born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972-73, from birth to midlife.
Over 1300 papers have been published about how your environment and upbringing influences your situation. It's world famous, as is Richie.
Last night, John Campbell asked him what the greatest finding was. Richie said poverty. He said you can't undo what happens in childhood.
In 2016 the Dunedin Study published a paper called "Childhood disadvantage strongly predicts costly adult life-course outcomes".
It found that nearly 80 percent of adult economic burden can be attributed to just 20 percent of the study members.
The researchers determined that this “high cost” group accounted for 81 percent of criminal convictions, 66 percent of welfare benefits, 78 per cent of prescription fills and 40 percent of excess obese kilograms.
Professor Poulton says that they also found that members of this group can be identified with high accuracy when as young as 3. Target these guys and you solve a lot of problems.
But as he said last night no-one has talked about poverty in this election campaign.
Labour made it their core goal over the past 6 years, and yet all they've done is throw money at all beneficiaries. And National doesn't utter the p word at all. It was- cut benefits and belief it can stem criminality with longer sentences.
Yet back in 2017, Bill English quoted the 2016 study and talked about social investment. If we can identify the truly vulnerable, why don't we help them, and just them. National has abandoned all that work it did 6 years ago and I have no idea why.
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One of the country's most famous electorate seats is up for grabs this election.
For 15 years, Grant Robertson has held Wellington Central, but he's heading to Labour's list.
In his place is current list MP Ibrahim Omer.
The Greens are putting up city councillor Tamatha Paul, while National has lawyer Scott Sheeran.
Newstalk ZB reporter Nick James asked Wellington Central voters about the big issues this election.
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Who has the ability and the answers to take New Zealand forward?
Christopher Luxon joined Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking for an extensive look into the policies and plans behind the National Party leader.
Two hours of the toughest questions, covering the topics New Zealanders really care about.
The economy, their tax plan, education, healthcare, what do they actually plan to do?
Crime is rising and people are feeling increasingly unsafe. National has plans to correct it, but will it work?
And the kingmaker himself, Winston Peters. What does Luxon really think about him?
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I know I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again, I’m so over this election. Please let it be over already.
Now that Winston’s crept back into the fray, we've got the old gameplaying of not just the politicians - but the voters now too who seem to believe they can rig MMP in their favour.
They want to design their own bespoke government. After all these years, we still don’t seem to get it. Essentially NZ voters are their own worst enemies.
Nearly two thirds of New Zealand voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction – but the smorgasbord of wasted votes plays to those who indulge themselves in delusions of grandeur that MMP provides them an ability to vote tactically.
They truly believe they can change the direction New Zealand is going with a sprinkling of some self serving bias - but it sadly doesn’t work like that.
Believing you can ‘send a message’, or ‘take out some insurance’ or ‘punish’ a party, is deluded.
To vote ‘tactically’ against a party you traditionally support or to counter the perceived threat of another minor party, means you’re at the same time ignoring a raft of potentially crazy economic and social policies, to tick a box which you mistakenly believe will ‘hold the new government to account.’
John Key once famously said if you want steak, order steak. And yet still, when we say we want steak, there are some who order mince instead, and with a side of veges, ‘just to keep the chef on his toes.’
It makes no sense.
Countless polls have shown the two core issues at stake in New Zealand right now are the cost of living and rampant crime. That’s before you get to our broken health or failing education systems.
Yet a large chunk of New Zealand voters, who are desperate to see a change in direction of this country, somehow think they can afford to split their vote and yet still expect to see a change in direction.
They are not doing the maths, they are not reading the room.
Based on latest polling, a coalition of Labour, Greens and Te Pati Maori gets 45 percent of the seats in Parliament, even though 66 percent of voters think the country is going in the wrong direction.
Head scratch.
A coalition of National and Act, which would arguably change the direction of this country which two thirds of voters think is heading in the wrong direction, on latest polling has only 50.8 percent of the seats.
This makes no sense.
Don’t even get me started on Winston.
Any government involving NZ First will go in no direction, it will stall as Winston looks to negotiate, grandstand and play games – hauling on the handbrake of progress in any and all directions.
Yet in latest polling, with a backdrop of two thirds of New Zealanders thinking the country is heading in the wrong direction, NZ First is on the precipice of holding progress to ransom as kingmaker.
This will inevitably put New Zealand into a sleeper hold – right at a point in history where it needs to be taking some deep breaths and big bold steps.
Be careful not who you vote for, but WHAT you vote for.
Rhis is before we get to the woeful tail of tiny parties like TOPP, Vision NZ, Liz Gunn, Hannah Tamaki and co, the waste of time territory. We either want change or we don’t.
The stakes for New Zealand have never been higher, we are at a cross-road – and we cannot afford to stall now in the middle of the intersection.
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Labour's new education policy is being described as a Band-Aid for a deeper problem.
The party is promising two million hours of free literacy and maths tutoring for intermediate and high school students and a training fund to help teachers.
Education Hub founder Dr Nina Hood told Mike Hosking one-on-one or small group tutoring is one of the most effective interventions.
But she says unless the underlying issues of why so many young people aren't achieving literacy and maths are addressed, there won't be a long term change.
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The property market is experiencing some pre-Election jitters.
It seems Kiwis are holding off on making big decisions until after D-Day - with the national average asking price staying flat the whole of September - this is according to realestate.co.nz's last report before the Election.
Vanessa Taylor, head of sales at realestate.co.nz, joined Kate Hawkesby on Early Edition to discuss the report's findings.
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National's Deputy leader says its economic plan is solid despite widespread doubts.
The party released its fiscal plan on Friday, Finance Minister Grant Robertson describing it was being built on sand.
A recent Newshub Reid Research poll found 53 percent of respondents don't think National can pay for its tax cuts.
The tax plan was also criticised by economists from across the political spectrum.
Despite the doubters Nicola Willis told Kate Hawkesby the plan has been carefully put together.
She says there are buffers in place in case parts of the plan go over or under expected cost.
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A change of date could be on the cards for Chris Hipkins' next head-to-head with National's Chris Luxon.
The pair were due to take part in a leaders' debate hosted by The Press on Tuesday, but Hipkins has Covid and is isolating.
The paper's owner, Stuff, is now working through contingency plans, including alternative dates for the face-off.
Labour's Grant Robertson says if someone was needed to step into the breach, they would, but there are conversations being had about deferring it.
"For the sake of everybody, this is a debate between the two people who want to be Prime Minister and I'm sure they can work around that and find a way of making sure that Chris Hipkins and Chris Luxon face off again"
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Winston Peters has a fiery interview with Jack Tame, National announces their 100-day plan, the Green Party are convinced their wealth tax will work and Chris Hipkins gets Covid days before the election- Peter Dunne joins the Weekend Collective to give his take on the week in politics.
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Winston Peters has a fiery interview with Jack Tame, National announces their 100 day plan, and The Green Party are convinced their wealth tax will work- Peter Dunne joins the Weekend Collective to recap this weekend in politics.
Later, Grant Robertson provides an update into Chris Hipkins' health, and what that means for upcoming debates.
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This week on the Sunday Panel, BusinessDesk Investments editor and host of Cooking the Books Frances Cook and Victoria University senior lecturer Morgan Godfrey joined in on a discussion about the following-
No matter which side of the aisle wins, it's very likely that both major parties will need to form three-way coalitions. Is this good or bad news for voters? What do we think of Winston Peters joining up with National and ACT?
Have we decided who we're voting for- or are we waiting it out? Do we think voters seem more apathetic about this election?
Some businesses are spending thousands to ensure workers can get fully paid vacations- what do we think of this?
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Labour's Chris Hipkins brought some unexpected political fire into Wednesday's second leaders' debate, to the surprise of experts and viewers.
Hipkins seemed confident in his performance on the night, giving himself a rating of nine, while Luxon rated himself a seven.
ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says Hipkins' debate performance was surprising, following a 'lackluster' and 'lifeless' start to Labour's campaign.
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National's Chris Luxon finally confirmed that he's open to collaborating with New Zealand First, if necessary.
Recent polls show a three-way coalition between parties will be needed, regardless of who wins the election- meaning National and ACT will need the extra support from Winston Peters.
National's former Deputy Leader, Paula Bennett, says it would have looked arrogant to prospective voters if National ruled out NZ First altogether.
"Potentially over 5 percent of the country say they want him, they know that that's the threshold, to then point-blankly rule it out- you'd have to think."
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Driving around the country this week – mainly Auckland to the Central Plateau and back, you’d be forgiven for thinking there’s only one main political party in New Zealand and a couple of minor parties. Once I left the heavily placarded suburbs of Auckland, there was a smattering of Greens, Act and Te Pati Maori signs on the side of the road, but very few for Labour.
This may be down to budget - Labour has only declared donations of $1.1 million. Even the Greens have managed $1.4 million. No one is close to National who have raised $8.2million.
It may also have something to do with apathy. There’s nothing more damaging. Be it from candidates, volunteers or, worst of all, voters.
Anecdotal evidence hints that some of our hearts aren’t quite in this election.
It’s unlikely we will reach the same heights at the previous election in 2020 which had a near record turnout of just under 82 percent of eligible voters cast their vote. But why isn’t the turnout high at all times? Why don’t we value our say?
Both main political parties have admitted there’s a mood for change – so why aren’t people more motivated to vote for that change? If the incumbent government is under threat, why can’t they convince their loyal voters it’s more important than ever to have their say.
I’m amazed at the number of people who tell me they still aren’t sure who they will vote for – or if they will even vote. Clearly people don’t like what’s on offer. There’s not a huge difference between some of the two main party’s policies or fiscal intentions. Some potential voters aren’t convinced what is being offered is enough to drive substantial change or solve the country’s pressing issues.
But it’s rare to find the perfect candidate or party. Generally we vote for the ‘best on offer’, but if we’re underwhelmed by what’s on offer its worth putting the effort in to give your vote to the ‘least-worse’. Someone’s got to govern - maybe your ‘lease-worst’ is worth giving a chance.
Whatever you land on, it’s easy to vote– overseas voting is underway, and advanced voting starts Monday. I like the tradition of voting day - but appreciate why some people are telling me they’re going to vote as soon as possible and then ignore the last few weeks of campaigning.
Whenever, however, whoever, it's always worth casting a vote.
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No surprise at all, this year's Mood of the Boardroom survey has shown that businesses are extremely disappointed in the Labour government.
But it also shows nervousness over whether National will be decisive enough to turn the economy.
In the CEO’s ranking, Christopher Luxon beat Chris Hipkins, but with an average of 3.5 points out of 5, Luxon looks far from a candidate that has the business team excited.
Dentons chair Hayden Wilson joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.
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Nicola Willis says saving taxpayers' money isn't her party's primary motivation for a plan to index benefits to inflation.
She recommitted to the pledge in National's fiscal policy today, which promises less Government spending and less debt.
Willis told Heather du Plessis-Allan the benefit moves are a point of principal for National.
“That what we owe all New Zealanders is a social safety net – that’s what benefits are there for.”
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National has released its fiscal plan ahead of the election.
But the operating allowance is the biggest difference between it and Labour’s – with Labour having $3.5 billion to National’s $3.2 billion.
National has also allowed a $9.9 billion buffer for anything extraordinary like a natural disaster.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has also said they will do a mini-budget ahead of Christmas if elected.
But National’s potential coalition partner NZ First could throw a potential spanner in the works.
Meanwhile, Labour candidate Angela Roberts has taken to social media to say she was slapped by a member of the public.
The event happened at a campaign debate at her local Rotary Club at Inglewood in Taranaki.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls gives us his verdict on National’s fiscal plan and whether it adds up.
And he asks why Christopher Luxon chose Auckland’s St Heliers for his latest walkabout.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Reporter Sophie Trigger paints the picture of Chris Hipkins’ walkabout in Lower Hutt.
And the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the reaction to the NZ Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom and Act’s response to accusations of race-baiting.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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National outplays Labour according to this year's rankings from business leaders.
More than 100 CEOs and business leaders have ranked MPs in the Herald's Mood of the Boardroom survey.
Luxon comes out on top with 3.24 out of five, compared to Chris Hipkins' 2.95.
Jarden Managing Director and Co-Head of Investment Banking, Silvan Scheone, told Kerre Woodham that businesses are very concerned with the future, because they will really need to plan for it.
She said that people would make totally different decisions based on who was in power.
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Today on Newstalk ZB Canterbury Mornings, John MacDonald was joined by Duncan Webb and Gerry Brownlee in studio for Politics Friday.
They discussed the need for a police chopper in Christchurch after word was released that National may seek to bring one to the city.
National's fiscal plan is out later today, will it hold all the information voters need?
And which coalition will truly be the most chaotic, if any at all?
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Based on the premise that you learn from your mistakes and the general idea that you want to improve, the conclusion I have reached this week as another seven days in the campaign ends is we need to have a good long think about the debates.
I am not alone. Several pieces I have now read say essentially the same thing.
Debate one was widely panned as being boring, unproductive, and certainly lacking any illumination. Debate two was criticised for being a yell fest, where one candidate was determined to out-shout the other. And for his efforts he got awarded the prize from the so-called experts as the winner.
Then you had the other debates; the minor leader's debate was another yell fest in a pub. In the youth debate there was more yelling.
Then, for my sins, to give some perspective I watched yesterday's second debate in the states with the Republicans. I watched the first debate with the Republicans as well.
What you conclude from the American scenario is they don’t do a lot better than we do. The mistake in the first one was there were too many people on stage and too many moderators, they had two of them.
Yesterday there were seven candidates and three moderators.
The advantage the Americans might have is talent and budget. In a country of 300+ million, surely the best broadcasters are better than ours? The truth is, not really.
The three yesterday had one talent and two second-raters. They got around the yelling of candidates by holding it in a massive space, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, where if you turned the mic off you couldn’t hear them. But it did nothing for the debate itself.
It was an unfulfilling, disjointed two hours I won't get back. And that seems, to me, to be the trouble with these things.
If you follow politics you have heard it all before. If you don’t, you'd be forgiven for not voting because what you're watching is bollocks.
So, here and in the great democracy of America debates seem dead.
The format doesn’t seem to work anymore. As one writer said yesterday about Newshub's effort, it was more game show than game changer.
They don’t add to the overall sum of things. We make much of them in the buildup and feel deflated with the experience.
So let's learn from it. Come 2026, let's come up with something a lot different and a lot better than what this cluster has turned out to be.
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At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
Infrastructure: 3/10
From the sink holes in Auckland to the bugs and illness in Queenstown, how third world does this country seem right now?
Auckland Airport: 3/10
Not only are the punters over it but the airlines have joined the queue as well. How much bad press does it take before someone there actually pulls finger?
The second Leader's debate: 6/10
Because it was a world away from the first one. But honestly, as far as education and insight is concerned, we are hardly setting the world on fire are we?
The NZ First call: 2/10
At the risk of saying "I told you so" Christopher, I told you so. In not ruling NZ First out and being clear from day one, how has the week gone for you?
National and Jobseeker: 8/10
Policy of the week. Not because it's revolutionary, because it isn't, but because it will restore an element of decorum to the moral, fiscal and social shambles we endure at the moment.
Overstayers and amnesties: 2/10
Policy fail of the week. The simple truth is indisputable; you can't come to this country and lie about it and then get let off. As someone called Trump once said: "if you don't have borders, you don’t have a country".
Dan Andrews: 6/10
Because although he is a dictatorial ogre, he did get re-elected twice, and in a democracy, the voter is never wrong.
Eddie Jones: 3/10
And we thought Ian Foster was an issue.
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National and the Greens will release their fiscal plans today, following the release of Labour's fiscal plan on Wednesday.
National Finance Spokesperson Nicola Willis said their plan will show how National plans to fund its election commitments, including lowering taxes and debt.
She told Mike Hosking that she's confident National can pay for what it's promising on the campaign trail.
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Polls are great. I love ‘em and I love the occasional surprise we get from them.
They're really useful in providing those snapshots of public opinion at any given moment.
And you'll be aware the political parties use them extensively, not just to see how they're tracking but for all sorts of nefarious stuff like testing out our reactions to policy ideas.
On top of that there's also a lot of research into the way leading figures are perceived, all part of the process of moulding and shaping them for maximum ballot-box efficiency.
But the thing about polls that we rarely take much notice of, and should, is the sampling process.
It's vital, if you want accurate answers to your questions, to be scrupulous about the sampling process.
Let me explain.
Say you're doing a political poll; you want to be sure your respondents match the demographics of the population as a whole.
So, you end up having to interview so many men, so many women, and a set number of people in each age group to match the voting population.
For example, the 1News poll uses roughly half and half randomly selected people on mobiles and volunteers from a panel; these are people who've done interviews in the past and have agreed to take a phone call from time to time.
Like most of the others, a sample of about a thousand people are called up over a two or three-day period.
Thing is, no matter how careful you are errors start to creep in. For a poll using a thousand people, even carried out very cautiously, your results are only good to within plus or minus three points.
So reporting numbers within that margin —in this example say, how many people are going to vote NZ Loyal— well it's pretty much pointless.
What's the point of all this?
The point is that I suspect polls influence the way people vote, possibly even whether people bother to vote.
And I'm going to suggest that this is such an important election that you can't leave it to the polls to make up your mind. Yet at the same time, we're all voting tactically. We kinda want that extra bit of information.
For what it's worth, and again I'm not trying to influence your vote, I've made up my mind on the issues—on the principles, and the issues.
I'll vote on Monday and try to forget about it until 14th.
Let's just hope we're collectively a little less grumpy once this is all over.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Tim Wilson from Maxim Institute and Ali Jones from Red PR joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Luxon and Hipkins went head to head in their second leaders debate last night - who do you think won? Do you think debates convince any voters or are they for entertainment only?
Winston Peters is gaining momentum in the polls- will National need to rely on the extra boost from NZ First?
Protesters flooded Parliament grounds today to protest a bunch of Brian Tamaki affiliated issues. Police were geared up for a big event and closed loads of roads around the place and workers were told to stay home. The protest was a peaceful event - so did the police overreact?
E-scooters are here to stay after Waka Kotahi gave them the green light for 5 more years- is this a good idea?
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Winston Peters could be the one benefiting most from Labour and National's coalition squabbles.
In last night's Leaders Debate, Labour's Chris Hipkins dug into National's Chris Luxon over his plans to work with New Zealand First, if needed.
Newstalk ZB Editor Jason Walls says the more Peters is discussed, the more his vote share will increase.
He says this could leak votes from National and Act, who need to step up.
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Campaigners for one of the nation's deadliest cancers feel like their cause is being ignored this election.
At last night's debate, Luxon and Hipkins both promised to lower the age for free bowel cancer screenings going forward.
Prostate Cancer Foundation President Danny Bedingfield says the Government has show it cares about people's lives- but their cause needs more support.
"What we're looking for is actually a trial of a prostate cancer screening program. We've had to do a lot of this background work ourselves, we've gone to the NZIER and asked them- what would it cost?"
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The Property Investors Federation welcomes ACT's proposed housing policy changes- but tenant advocacy groups are sceptical.
The plan includes reinstating mortgage interest deductibility, abolishing the bright-line test and allowing no fault evictions.
Federation President Sue Harrison says these changes will make it easier for landlords and tenants alike.
"No one wants to evict good tenants, no one wants to get rid of their best people in their homes- but we need tools in our toolbox if we're to take on risky tenants."
Renters United President Geordie Rogers says there are rules in place that allow landlords to remove unruly renters.
"The return of no-cause evictions is really just a matter of hiding the reasons, because people are scared to say them out loud- or they don't fit a list."
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I don’t quite know how we’re back here, but we are- Winston's back in Government, isn’t he?
I think all the signs now point to the fact that National can’t do it without him.
The Herald’s Poll of Polls says National and ACT have a 40 percent chance of forming Government alone. With Winston, it’s a 99.7 percent chance.
The big donors are backing him, he’s pulling in more money right now than in any other election beforehand- and it’s coming from the big end of town.
He wasn’t in the debate last night, but Paddy Gower dedicated an entire section to talking about him. And out of the parties on the right, NZ First is the only one going up in the polls.
National looks like it might actually have peaked already. The party hit its highest point a couple of weeks ago and it’s been falling slightly in the polls since then.
ACT is kind of hard to judge, but it’s either stable or falling slightly- it’s certainly not climbing.
NZ First? That one is going up.
I think those donations are significant, by the way. The rank group, which is connected to Graham Hart, the richest man in New Zealand, gave Winston Peters $100,000.
And they did that more than two weeks before donating to ACT and National.
Winston’s getting money from the same rich-listers donating to ACT and National. These guys know how to sniff the breeze, that’s why they’re wealthy- because they read things before they happen.
And they’re backing Winnie.
I'm baffled.
This is the guy who earned the wrath of centre-right voters only 6 years ago for choosing Jacinda when Bill English had earned more vote.
And yet, here we are- there are centre-right voters who are backing him, who are trusting him to not make them angry again.
Watch what’s about to happen. We're gonna talk a lot about Winston between now and election night, because he’s relevant again.
NZ First was 6 percent in the One News/Verian poll last night, so book them in for a possible 7 or 8 on election night. Because the more we talk about them, the more they climb.
And if these trends continue, you ain’t getting a change of Government without Uncle Winston in there.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls gives us an update on Chris Hipkins’ energy levels after last night’s debate.
And he talks through the Labour Leader’s trip to Northland.
Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen lets us know if Christopher Luxon still has a spring in his step after the second debate.
Plus, he chats about a hilarious interaction aboard the National campaign bus.
Of course, the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including Act’s newest landlord policy and Chris Hipkins’ promise to Maori voters.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Last night's leaders' debate was vastly more entertaining than the first one.
Was it a debate? Well, Sister Philippa, my old debating coach at Sacred Heart Girls College, wouldn't have seen it as a debate per say. I think it was more of a bit of infotainment.
Chris Hipkins, the leader of Labour, showed up and heaven knows we love a politician who shows up. He no longer looked like a dead man walking like in the first debate. He looked like he didn't care, was over it, was going through the motions. Last night he looked more like someone who's woken up to the fact he needs to fight for his political skin.
Christopher Luxon got caught a few times on not specifically answering questions and resorting to slogans but seemed composed despite the increased intensity of the set to. And I think the quickness will come with more time in the House and the ability to be able to answer on your feet.
Paddy Gower got in a couple of zingers. When Christopher Luxon said he didn't know Winston Peters, Paddy Gower was quite right in saying it's Winston Peters, who doesn't know Winston Peters?!
So ultimately it was more energetic, more peppy. But did it change anything for you? Give you any information you didn't know before? Give you an insight into the leaders of the parties that you didn't have before last night?
Apparently, these sorts of debates help to get non-voters engaged and into the voting booths, but God help us if our election is decided by people who watch 90 minutes of television infotainment and base their votes on that.
Interesting though, that in both debates policies seem to be made-up on the fly by both leaders. We're banning fizzy drinks in secondary schools in the first debate -that seemed to come out of nowhere. I mean well. Fizzy drinks are banned in primary schools, but Chris Hipkins was like right, we're going to ban them in secondary schools as well.
Both leaders said they would lower the age for bowel cancer screening in this last night's debate, which you know, both worthwhile. Don't get me wrong, both worthwhile. But I do find it a wee bit alarming that politicians can just whip a policy out of their kerchief pocket without Select Committee, consultation and the like, as infotainment.
Fine. I can't imagine the sort of people that I talk to on a daily basis on this show, I can't imagine people thinking, uh, you know what, because of that zingy one liner or because they looked more energetic, I'm going to change my vote from National to Labour or Labour to National. I just can't see that happening.
It may have confirmed people's decisions to look at the minor parties. They might have looked at both leaders and thought ‘I need more than this.’
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If you want proof that people will see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear, I’ve got it for you.
And it’s to do with last night’s leaders’ debate on TV3. Which, by the way, blew last week’s debate on TV1 out of the water, didn't it?
Not just because Chris Hipkins appeared to be awake this time. But also because it had a much better structure and didn’t waste time on pointless questions about what book the two leaders are reading at the moment.
Yes, there was quite a bit of Chris Hipkins and Christpher Luxon talking over eachother. Especially at the start. But Paddy Gower didn’t let them get away with not answering questions.
Although there were a couple of times when he realised he wasn’t going to get an answer. But that spoke volumes and so he let it be. In fact, someone texted me afterwards saying they thought Paddy was the winner on the night.
But, right from the start, Chris Hipkins showed that he had obviously listened to Helen Clark who, apparently, called him up after last week’s debate and said he’d been as weak as tea and needed to harden up.
I made that bit up about her saying he was as weak as tea last week. But it is being reported today that Helen Clark was so unimpressed last week that she got on the blower and gave Hipkins a bit of a talking to.
And he listened. And he was much stronger last night. Much stronger.
And, as always happens, people are asked who they thought won the thing. Which I’ll get to.
But first, I’ve got to say that aside from beating TV1 with the debate itself, TV3 also beat TV1 hands-down when it came to the panel they put together to provide analysis afterwards.
You’ll remember last week how we had Tau Henare and David Cunliffe going into overdrive with the sporting analogies, which was just cringe-material, wasn’t it?
Last night, TV3 had Josie Pagani, Julian Wilcox and Janet Wilson. And there were zero sporting analogies. Which was brilliant in itself.
And, as I say, the inevitable question was asked: who did they think won? And they all pretty much said Hipkins was the winner. I agreed with them, though, when they said that Hipkins performed more like an Opposition leader and Luxon performed more like a Prime Minister.
But, overall, they thought Hipkins was the winner.
And then you read all the analysis by all the other political commentators. And they’re saying the same thing. Luxon wasn’t necessarily bad, but Hipkins upped his game big time from last week and they’re all saying he was definitely the winner on the night.
Which brings me to what I was saying earlier about people —especially voters— seeing what they want to see and hearing what they want to hear. And the evidence today that that is definitely what happens.
There’s an online poll running on the NZ Herald website, asking people who they think won last night’s debate.
And the results, so far, are the complete opposite of what all the commentators are saying.
When I last checked, 62% of people were saying that they thought Christopher Luxon won the debate, and 32% were saying Chris Hipkins was the winner.
Which I think says a lot about how effective these debates are when it comes to informing voters. I know they’re promoted as being the big chance to find out which leader sings from your songsheet, but I don’t think they are at all.
Wherever you are on the political spectrum, how could anyone think that —based just on what we saw last night— how could anyone think that Chris Hipkins wasn’t the winner on the night?
Yes, I’m just as tired of Labour as the next person. I’m just as cynical as you are of all the about-turns Labour has done in the last few weeks, desperately trying to stay in government.
And, like most people, I think Labour’s GST off fruit and veggie policy is just lame. It’s sudden interest in having more cops - I think that’s rich coming from a party that’s been in government for the past six years.
In fact, I’ll go as far as saying that I don’t think Labour even deserves another shot.
But, even then, I can still see Chris Hipkins’ performance last night for what it was and acknowledge that, yes, he was definitely the winner on the night.
But it seems —going by this poll on the Herald website— that the majority of voters can’t do that. And that the majority of voters watch things like these televised debates and see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear.
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I think most people would agree with the winner, wouldn't they?
Andrew Webster deserved the Dally M Coach of the Year.
But back here we seemed to call it for Chris Hipkins.
I'll come back to that, but a couple of broadcasting notes for TVNZ, given Newshub's effort last night was in a completely different league.
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Get an audience that reacts because it brings life to a broadcast
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Get a moderator with a personality and some energy. At times Paddy Gower is a mile over the top and says a lot of random stuff. But he is engaged, he is having fun, and he wants to get the most out of every moment.
It is, and has been, in many respects the difference between TV3 and TV1 for years.
So, to the winner and I have a couple of questions;
Was Hipkins declared the winner by the so-called experts merely because he was more lively than debate one? And was a winner declared because people seem to want to have a result?
It's sort of like going to the doctor. It doesn't matter how innocuous your issue is, unless you get a script for pills or potions you feel ripped off. So who spends that long watching two men argue if we can't decide who won it?
The point being is Hipkins, if you want to give him the prize, simply argued a lot, at times, for the sake of it.
In arguing a lot, do you help your cause or are you simply looking to deflect away from your case and try and put the spotlight on the other bloke?
I am not saying he didn't win. But, to be honest, I am not sure I learned a lot.
They will both sort feral cats. Hipkins had a road cone in his student flat. Neither had taken MDMA.
The one prime ministerial moment I will give to Hipkins is when he refused to hand out knighthoods, saying it's not something a Prime Minister does in public. It's the difference between a person with the job and the responsibilities versus everyone else who can say what they want.
And that, I guess, is the trouble with debates. It's hard to find the balance between the stuff that needs debating, like the economy, and the stuff that doesn't like 'gotcha' questions and knighthoods.
The other point is this - are these things material? If you give the win to Hipkins does it move the needle? Will we see the gap close in the next poll? Given it's 10 points, do you save your hide and party with a debate?
I don't think so. And given there are two more debates, what the hell do they cover?
We know their favourite beaches, books and drug habits. Is there an original question left to ask?
Will you be back for more?
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Christopher Luxon is denying he conceded defeat at last night's leaders' debate.
National's leader told Mike Hosking that he was disappointed with Hipkins aggressive approach.
Following the debate, Hipkins gave himself a rating of nine, while Luxon rated himself a seven.
Pundits judged Hipkins a near-unanimous winner.
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Chris Hipkins appears to be utilising New Zealand First's growing strength in the polls.
The Labour leader went up against National's Christopher Luxon last night in what commentators agree was far more fiery second leaders' debate.
Political Editor Jason Walls told Mike Hosking that Hipkins is now on the attack with a new approach, hinting a vote for National is a vote for Winston Peters.
However, Jason Walls says if he had to pick a debate winner it would be Winston Peters, who wasn't even in the room.
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The chances of Chris Hipkins retaining his role as Prime Minister appears to be fading by the day.
The latest One News-Verian result puts National on 36% while Labour sits at 26%.
Earlier this week, the Herald's Poll of Polls showed Labour has a 0.2% chance of staying in government, the worst result for any main governing party since the Great Depression.
Former National Party advisor and political commentator Brigitte Morton told Tim Dower that the chances Hipkins will continue as Prime Minister are getting down to zero.
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Trying to pick a winner from a TV debate is a tricky thing to do.
First thing I have to bear in mind is that I'm not impartial when I look at these things. I've already decided who I want to win, so that's bound to be an influence.
I started going through it round by round, first one to Luxon, even in the second, Hipkins in round three.
Four to Luxon, five to Hipkins... overall, I'd have to say Hipkins was the winner on the night.
Which you might expect, given he's the career politician.
Did Luxon score at all? Well yes actually, he did okay for a comparative beginner.
Multi-millionaire he may be, but to my mind Luxon actually came across as the more real of the two. More in touch with what the public is saying and thinking.
Hipkins, and again my perception is obviously slanted by my political position, Hipkins was aggressive from the get-go and even looked a bit desperate.
Once he'd hit his straps and got a few zingers in he started to look cocky, arrogant, and a bit sneery.
His face formed into that 'I know better', pursed-lip, mouth like a cat's bum expression.
Luxon, and again, this is tainted by my politics, I thought he actually radiated more warmth and humanity.
The way our politics functions now puts a lot more pressure on the party leaders to have all the answers. We didn't elect Labour last time, or the time before, we elected, well, you know who we elected.
Point I'm making is that these debates are vote-winning opportunities.
Hipkins won the debate and he's probably shored up some Labour supporters who might have been wavering.
But Luxon went that little further. There were moments when he showed he's aspirational for the country, not just himself and the party.
For the first time since he became leader I felt I could actually see him as Prime Minister.
And that's something other people have said about meeting Luxon in the flesh; he's serious about the task and he's come a long way.
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The Labour Party has laid out their newly proposed fiscal policy ahead of the election.
Labour has pledged to look for more savings across the books, and keep net debt under 30 percent of GDP.
Milford Asset Management's Frances Sweetman says Labour's 'careful and balanced' fiscal plan comes with a few caveats.
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It's looking increasingly likely Chris Luxon will have to pick up the phone to Winston Peters next month.
Tonight's One News/ Verian Poll shows New Zealand First is on 6 percent - up a point - and remaining in a kingmaker position.
Labour and National have both dropped 1 point - to 26 and and 36 percent- and Act's steady on 12.
The Greens are on 13, and Te Pati Maori is at 2 percent.
National Deputy Leader Nicola Willis says it shows the election will come down to the wire.
"People listening need to know- if you want a change of Government, you are going to have to vote for it, and that's a party vote for National. Because any other vote could put a change of Government at risk."
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Newshub's Paddy Gower says National and Labour's leaders are gutless for refusing to debate their colleagues in the minor parties.
He will moderate the show-down between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins in Auckland tonight, after last week's TVNZ debate.
Gower says it's important for the pair to face-off, but it seems a bit historic that the other leaders won't be there.
"We know that whoever forms a Government, particularly this time around, is going to need 1 or 2 of those other parties- and they're going to be quite big. It's not just about these two main guys."
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Labour's David Parker has responded to National's criticism of the Party's fiscal plan.
The plan promises to look for more savings across the Government's books and to keep net debt under 30 percent of GDP.
But National questions Labour's credibility- saying it's blown all operating allowances set since 2017.
Associate Finance spokesperson Parker says it's because of Covid and the cyclone and flooding.
"That's no more true of us than it was of John Key when he had to meet the consequences of the global financial crisis, and then the Canterbury earthquakes. We're a very responsible Government, fiscally."
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A prediction tonight's leaders debate may be more exciting than the last one.
Chris vs Chris will appear on Newshub at 7 tonight, moderated by Patrick Gower.
ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says some were disappointed by the debate on TVNZ- but he says this one could be a different story.
"I've talked to both leaders- Chris Hipkins says he's essentially going on 'attack mode', so expect fireworks from him."
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls breaks down Labour’s fiscal plan – and talks what impact it may have on the party’s election chances.
Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen talks National’s new campaign bus.
Plus, the pair chat how both leaders are feeling in the leadup to tonight’s debate.
And Newstalk ZB’s Jacob Jones gives us the highlights of a fiery Northcote electorate debate last night.
Of course, the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including Grant Robertson’s warning over next year’s budget and Winston Peters hitting out at how other parties are campaigning.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Labour's police spokesperson has accused her National counterpart of touring the country "scaring old ladies".
Ginny Andersen told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking Breakfast that Mark Mitchell is holding public meetings to drum up fear about crime.
“These meetings where you go around the country scaring old ladies. Mark's being going around the country scaring old ladies, that's exactly what his whole campaign has been."
Mitchell fired back, accusing Andersen of downplaying the concerns expressed in those meetings.
"Actually attend one of those meetings, and you'll find it's not just old ladies, and old ladies care about their safety as well. You might find that it's a big cross-section of the community."
Mitchell gave the example of a meeting he attended in central Auckland attended by Queen Street residents."
They're seeing open drug dealing happening, they're seeing anti-social and violent behaviour, they have to deal with a homicide just about weekly, assaults."
“They don't feel safe on Queen Street at seven o'clock at night.”
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Labour's accusing National of beating up the vulnerable with its new welfare scheme.
The opposition is promising to introduce traffic light style sanctions to those on the dole who aren't meeting Jobseeker requirements.
A red light breach could mean reductions, mandatory work experience, and someone's money being managed by WINZ.
Labour's Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni told Tim Dower that it's in line with previous National parties, she's still surprised by the timing.
She says given the challenges the country is facing, she was disgusted by the timing of the announcement.
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Tonight on The Huddle, former Labour Chief of Staff Mike Munro and Business Mentors NZ CEO Sarah Trotman joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
National seeks to introduce sanctions if beneficiaries don't meet their obligations to prepare for or find work. What do we make of this policy?
Despite Labour assuring everyone that a wealth tax is off the table, Wellington Central candidate Ibrahim Omer said in a leaked video that the party hadn't given it up. Should Hipkins' word be trusted-or do you think the Greens and Te Pati Maori could convince Labour?
Stats NZ is looking into using AI to interview new job applicants. Could this shake up the industry- or lead to worse problems?
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National's Chris Luxon was set to make an impression at Auckland’s NorthWest mall.
Between declining a hairdresser's offer to moisturise his head, pulling off a man’s beanie without asking and getting a blue stain on his suit at Little Lab- it was a memorable day on the campaign trail.
ZB chief political reporter Aaron Dahmen says it was a mix of entertaining and weird- making for perfect campaign fodder.
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National denies their new welfare policy will put more children into poverty.
The party wants a traffic light-style scheme, which sanctions beneficiaries who don't meet their Jobseeker obligations.
A third breach could see benefit reductions, mandatory work experience, and someone's money managed by WINZ.
Labour argues the policy would increase child poverty, but National's Louise Upston says it'll be better for beneficiaries' kids.
"We want to see more families, more households in work, because we know that children in a household where a parent is working will, in the long term, be far better off."
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There's growing speculation that Labour could eventually introduce a wealth tax.
In a leaked video, Labour's Wellington Central candidate Ibrahim Omer tells a meeting that the party hasn't given up on the policy.
Hipkins has pushed back against these claims and plans to discuss Omer's comments with him.
ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says Hipkins has made it clear that he's not introducing a wealth tax- but other Labour candidates are feeling the pressure ahead of the election.
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In today’s Election Fix, Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen takes us through Christopher Luxon’s visit to the strawberry fields.
And we get a breakdown of his eventful visit to Auckland’s NorthWest mall.
Political Editor Jason Walls questions why Chris Hipkins is continuing his attacks against National, Act and New Zealand First. Plus he asks whether the Labour leader is getting desperate.
Plus, the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the Green Party’s Best Start policy and reaction to National’s welfare pledge.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date
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A little bit of politics, because we didn't really get a chance to talk about Christopher Luxon and David Seymour saying yes, okay, if we have to, we will work with New Zealand First.
Commentators have got themselves into quite the lather over that. A sign of weakness, they were saying, being bullied by the media and all that sort of carry-on. And it's not often I agree with the leader of New Zealand First, but like him, I think that the only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day.
Polls have become less reliable than they used to be, with people being mistrustful of giving any information to anybody. It's harder to reach people these days. Those who only have mobile phones, those who live in apartment buildings.
Certainly, the polls are showing that Labour support is tanking, but the Greens are picking up a lot of those dissatisfied voters. Enough to cobble together a coalition of Labour, Greens, and Te Pati Māori? Who knows? Not according to statisticians and Poll of Polls simulations.
But ultimately voters will have the final say, and I think that's what Christopher Luxon understands. He has overtaken the other Chris as preferred prime. But last night's poll also showed support for the main parties and ACT dropping slightly. It also had TOP doubling its support, so make that what you want.
And as I say, commentators got themselves into a complete lather yesterday over National and ACT saying they would work with New Zealand First if they absolutely had to. But surely that's just pragmatism. If people insist on voting for New Zealand First (I shan't go on, but you know my thoughts about that), then parties have to work with what's voted in. Ruling out New Zealand First would have shown arrogance in the extreme by National.
Christopher Luxon comes from a business background, not a political one, and I think that's a very good thing. I think by saying he would work with New Zealand First if they absolutely had to is being respectful of democracy, the MMP process and the voters. (Although whether anyone who votes New Zealand First deserves respect is another matter entirely. But I shan’t go on).
You know my thoughts. What are your thoughts on this? We didn't get to discuss it yesterday and I'd love to hear from you whether you think that is showing respect for the parliamentary process, respect for MMP and respect for the voters. I can't see it as being a sign of weakness, which is what I heard a lot of yesterday.
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My favourite quote of the week, and admittedly it is only Tuesday, is from the Governance Services Manager at the Auckland city council.
Submissions have just closed on the council's plan to establish Māori wards. The manager says "most submitters seemed to not want Māori seats".
No kidding.
Now, there are two sorts of democracy; one is what we are in at the moment, the election, where we get to have a vote and that vote counts. The other is the bit where they say they want to hear from people on any given idea, or decision, and they will listen.
The difference in this one is it’s a con. They won't be listening at all. They say you can have a say, so you think you have had a say and that what you say is irrelevant, but if they don’t say you can have a say they worry that a lot of people will say we didn’t have a say.
When it comes to the Māori seats on the council, or indeed any council, what you say will make no difference and, as such, you have wasted your time.
But it does go to show why the likes of ACT are onto it with their co-governance stance. That stance is more popular than any council, or indeed most media, would have you believe. The unfairness of it is not the fact Māori, or indeed any race, should have a say or a voice, because they can and they should.
And they can, through the well-established mechanism they call democracy.
But in that is the danger. In hijacking that mechanism they take democracy away from most of us, but pretend they haven't by deciding to do something they know is not representative of what the people think, but also by lying to us and telling us we can have a say, which technically we can, but under the subterfuge that it actually is representative and means something when it doesn’t.
The old rule when councils decided they wanted Māori seats or wards was if the voter got a petition going and raised enough signatures. They had to hold a vote.
The Government changed that rule because each time we had a vote the councils lost. That is democracy and they didn’t like democracy so they made it so you can't have a petition.
Instead, they do what they want anyway and treat you like a sucker and ask for submissions and pretend your view counts.
Back to the real democracy i.e the election. If this is a big deal to you and you want something done about it there are parties that will change it
And unlike a submission your vote actually counts.
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Latest polling shows National will need New Zealand First on board to form a government.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour's fallen slightly to 26.5% and National's dropped to 39.1%.
The Greens' boosted to 14.2%.
With ACT's 8.8% the right-bloc would have 60 MPs, just below the 61 needed to form a government.
New Zealand First's 5.2% would be required.
Political commentator Dr Grant Duncan told Tim Dower that Luxon 'had to' end the speculation, because in all likelihood, he may be having to make that call after the election.
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Labour Leader Chris Hipkins told Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking that polls are polls, and they need to spend the next few weeks getting their poll numbers up.
“Every day in an election campaign matters, and we intend to fight until the last day.”
When questioned on why election odds for Labour, Greens, and Te Pati Maori sit at 0.2% if the election was held today according to a Herald poll, Hipkins said National and ACT’s numbers are coming down.
“Luxon should have done what Key did and ruled Winston Peters out.”
Hipkins said he will absolutely not work with Winston Peters.
“We worked with him in the first three years, and it was very challenging, and he is not an easy person to work with.”
“I don’t think National, NZ First, and ACT would agree on much, and it would be bad news for a country as a whole.”
“I will not, as Prime Minister, have Winston Peters in any government I am part of.”
When questioned on falling behind Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister numbers, Hipkins said he is who is and people will make their own judgements.
Hipkins said the party’s new immigration plans for overstayers amnesty affects those still living in New Zealand from the 1960s and 70s.
“Their children who were born in New Zealand can’t access things like tertiary education because their parents were never regular in the first place, and I think that needs to change.”
“This would be the last of the amnesties and that’s why we have set the barrier at 10 years.”
When questioned why amnesty should be given to those who have deliberately overstayed, he said people fall irregular in their immigration status for multiple reasons.
“People who are here contribute to New Zealand, their kids are here should be able to stay.”
Hipkins said the “Minister for Just Transitions” would help New Zealanders with the problems climate change will pose.
“We’re going to have a lot of jobs that will become redundant from climate change and therefore we have to transition them to new jobs, we are going to have people who will have to relocate, so we will have to help them relocate.”
“The money will come from the green investment fund.”
“We believe we will have the money to fund it through the fund.”
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The Greens are the quiet movers in the latest poll.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll puts them up 1.9 points to 14.2%, a result which would deliver them 18 MPs.
Labour was down slightly to 26.5%, National dropped a bit more to 39.1%, and ACT fell to 8.8%.
New Zealand First would just make it to Parliament on the numbers at 5.2%.
Green Party Co-Leader James Shaw told Mike Hosking that he's campaigning to be returned to Government.
He says a lot of people write off the election before voters have their say, but he wants to see where the cards fall and play the hand they're dealt the best he can.
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Now we've had a day to mull it over... has Christopher Luxon played a smart card or a dopey one?
Up until yesterday we were under the impression Luxon wants nothing less than to have to deal with New Zealand First.
But this feels like an admission of defeat, as though Luxon has realised NZ First may well hit the threshold, and if they do that's going to drag down the number of seats National can have.
He says he'll do whatever it takes to form a coalition and I guess a lot of people will have wanted to hear that, and his reinforcing line about ACT being his preferred coalition partner without New Zealand First.
But by putting it on the agenda on a Monday morning less than three weeks before polling day has Luxon gifted a swag of attention, if not votes, to his least preferred coalition partner?
With the prospect of seats around the Cabinet table and of course an important job for Winston Peters, that vote looks a lot less like a wasted vote than it might have done.
So some right-leaning voters, mentioning no names here, are going to feel cheated and sold down the river.
Interesting to see what Sir John Key says about it all. He's been there, done that, and he's pretty much endorsed the Luxon move.
That's despite the fact that Key himself did rule out New Zealand First.
Key says it's a wise strategy based on simple maths, and there's a very high expectation from New Zealanders that the largest party after an election will do everything it can to put together a government and save us having another election.
I guess when you look at it like that, yes, we do expect the biggest party to lead the way towards a coalition.
But we expected that six years ago when National won 56 seats and Labour had 46, and what did we get? And why did we get that?
Work it out for yourself. What really happens if NZ First hits the threshold? They haven't gone with National in 27 years, is that about to change?
Not my place to tell you how to vote. I'll just say this: we're not at a political crossroads in New Zealand, we're at a T-junction
Start down either of the roads ahead of us and it's a hard road back if we get it wrong.
So, which way are we going?
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Both Labour and National took a dive in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
The National Party has lost nearly 2 points of support, taking it to just over 39 percent - and with ACT on 8.8, it needs New Zealand First to govern.
NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan explains what this could mean for the election.
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Labour's Associate Finance Minister is looking on the bright side of the latest poll.
The party has fallen a further 0.3 points to 26.5 and National's dropped 1.8 points to 39.1 percent.
NZ First is up 1.9 points to 5.2 percent, reaching the necessary threshold to enter Parliament.
David Parker says it appears the left has stabilised - while National and ACT have peaked early.
"I think it's the good economic news- not just unemployment being low, but those growth figures that came out recently were higher than people expected."
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Winston Peters says he doesn't feel snubbed by being the National leader's last resort.
Chris Luxon today confirmed he would work with New Zealand First post-election if absolutely necessary- but reiterates his preference is a National-Act Government.
Peters says Luxon's been under media pressure to make a call and has taken the time to make the right decision.
He says he'd be happy to take Luxon's call post-election.
"I'm a courteous person, as you know. Of course I'll talk to people when they want to talk to me for the right reasons- and for the country's interests."
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Every Monday until the election The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis.
This week, the Executive Director of the Taxpayer’s Union Jordan Williams steps in for Barry Soper.
Our expert panel discusses Christopher Luxon confirming he’ll form a Government with Winston Peters if he has to. Does it give New Zealand First more credibility? Could National lose support because of this?
They also dissect Chris Hipkins getting into attack mode but ask, is it simply too late to make a difference in the polls?
Heather asks the panel what they made of the debates last week and whether they’ll change any minds.
Plus, they take a deep dive into the latest policy announcements – including National’s speed limits promise and Labour’s climate manifesto.
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In today’s Election Fix, Chief Political Reporter breaks down the worst kept secret of the campaign. The fact that Christopher Luxon will work with Winston Peters and New Zealand First post-election, if he has to.
Plus, Aaron talks through the public’s reaction during Luxon’s time in Waikato.
Political Editor Jason Walls tells us what Chris Hipkins’ reaction to the news has been – and also paints the picture of the Labour leader of the hustings in New Plymouth.
Plus, the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including all the reaction to the Winston Peters news and Labour releasing its first ever climate manifesto.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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So the clocks went forward one hour yesterday morning.
And then, today, National leader Christopher Luxon winds them back again. In fact, he’s wound the clocks back to 2017. Which is the last time we had Winston Peters deciding the outcome of an election.
And today, it looks like there’s potential for that to happen all over again this time around. Because Luxon says that, if he has to after the election, he will be getting on the blower to Winston Peters and talking turkey about including NZ First in a coalition government.
After weeks and weeks of dancing on the head of a pin over this, Luxon has said pretty much the complete opposite of what Labour’s Chris Hipkins said a few weeks back.
Hipkins said he’s not in the least bit interested in forming a government with Winston Peters.
But Luxon has gone completely in the other direction. He is shaking off the welcome mat, he’s got it out in the backyard, whacking it with a broomstick, getting it all nice and clean and says he will be rolling it out for Winston Peters if he has to. If that’s what he needs to do to form a government and get rid of the current Labour government.
And if he does that, it could even mean Winston Peters being Deputy Prime Minister again. Because he did not rule that out when asked on Newstalk ZB this morning.
ACT leader David Seymour was being somewhat diplomatic on the radio this morning.
But I think Christopher Luxon has made a big mistake. Not because I necessarily think he’s going to need NZ First to form a government. He might, who knows.
I think he’s made a mistake because it makes him look desperate. I hear what he’s saying about doing whatever it takes to get a change of government. But David Seymour and Winston Peters?
Can I take you back to 2017 and something one of Luxon’s National Party predecessors said.
This is Jim Bolger, who knows full well what it’s like to be in a coalition. Especially a coalition with New Zealand First. Here’s what he said about forming coalitions.
"You have to be able to put past differences in the past, leave them in the past and look at what you can do. Because what you're talking about is forming a government for the future, not to re-litigate the past.”
That was Jim Bolger six years ago. Jim Bolger who not only formed a coalition government with Winston Peters, but also kicked Winston Peters out of Cabinet in 1992. The Jim Bolger who, four years later, welcomed him back like the prodigal son.
I don't think that sort of kissing and making-up would ever happen between David Seymour and Winston Peters. And I think Christopher Luxon is dreaming if he thinks otherwise.
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Winston Peters joined Canterbury Mornings this morning following National's announcement that they will consider working with NZ First should they need to form a government.
John asked Winston if he received a phone call from Chris Luxon, and how he felt about working with National. They also covered co-governance, the campaign for NZ First, and why Winston still feels so passionately about running again.
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This morning's call by National that they will deal with New Zealand First, if they have to, is exactly the sort of thing they should have been able to avoid if they took the advice of people like me weeks ago.
The poll last week showing 82 percent of us wanted to know one way or the other shows how shockingly National misread the mood.
By spending all that time and energy the way Chris Luxon did sticking his fingers in his ears, telling us he wasn't even thinking of it, he didn't want to talk about it, he wasn't above the threshold, he wasn't in parliament, it wasn't an issue, has all led to this.
It's turned into a victory for Winston Peters and a break for Labour.
The line that National had about the Greens and the Maori Party and the coalition of chaos is now null and void, as you look at the prospect of National and Act and Peters, with the latter two openly hating each other.
I still maintain they should have ruled Peters out day one, which would have made him irrelevant. But even if they had said they could work with him, at least you would know where they stood.
It was made worse by Hipkins when he ruled New Zealand First out, one of the few clever things he has managed to achieve in the campaign so far.
The irony was he got full headlines for ruling out a party who had already ruled them out. He wasn't going to work with a party that had already said they weren't working with him but most people forgot that and he got the upper ground he was after.
Cue Luxon, bumbling and stumbling his way through question after question, refusing to deal with an elephant in the room that was getting more and more embarrassing.
So, this morning you get the back down where Luxon is forced to admit he will have to deal with him if necessary.
My guess is it won't come to that. My guess remains that National and Act on the night will in fact have plenty to do it by themselves.
But as you will also see today, the other prediction I made last week is already coming to pass; National will start to run the line about complacency. "Don't think it's over, don't take a National win for granted, you've got to vote".
What National want at this stage of the campaign is ongoing momentum, they want to be controlling the narrative. By failing to deal with Peters early, they have strategically failed.
It isn't the end of the world, but they never needed to be here if they had had a proper plan from day one.
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You know you're getting down to the rats and mice when you've got a major political party promising to change speed limits, if only we'll vote for them.
Now I'm not saying National's wrong about a lot of those 30k zones especially, some of them are probably really daft but others might make sense.
I guess the point is we're down to fairly trivial stuff now and the election campaign is limping into a petty bidding war.
Where is the meaningful debate about political ideas? Where is the serious discussion about where we see ourselves in five, ten years from now?
Where is the vision of a better New Zealand for our children, our grandchildren?
I guess we only have ourselves to blame, because when it comes to ticking the box on the day, what's going to motivate most of us?
I'll go out on a limb and say it's money.
Most of us are going to vote for the party which will either improve our lot in life, or at least not make it any worse.
Some of us may be contemplating what we're leaving for the kids, some may even think a little more broadly than that: what's going to make for a better New Zealand overall?
I don't know that changing speed limits, or even how many new state houses are coming will figure that high in the calculation.
And I guess the political parties know how fickle we are, and how easily swayed.
So in case you missed it, this is actually a really important election.
But it's not about speed limits or public housing or special visas for overstayers or how much we spend getting gang tatts off prisoners' faces.
It's about two distinctly different directions we could take the country in.
Do we go further down the disastrous track we've been on this past six years: dismantling law and order, widening dependency on the state, dishing out favours based on race?
Or do we hope it's not too late to fix some of the problems and try to turn this ship around?
This election should not – and hopefully will not – come down to who lets us drive fastest.
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The trucking industry is calling National's road speed promises a return to common sense.
If elected, National intends to lift the speed limit on a number of roads that were dropped to 80, and many local roads to 50.
National Road Carriers General Manager James Smith told Mike Hosking it's about getting New Zealanders’ productivity up.
“We need to get the people where they want to go when they want to go, and we need to return the focus onto getting the roads fit for purpose.”
Smith says the attitude to driver risk is too high.
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Chris Luxon says National would work with New Zealand First if it had to, and he thinks Labour would do the same.
He's confirmed his position this morning after weeks of questions.
Labour and New Zealand First have both ruled each other out, but Luxon believes both could still choose each other.
Luxon says David Seymour and Winston Peters would find a way to work with each other.
But the ACT leader told Mike Hosking he doesn't think he'll be able to sit around the same Cabinet table as Peters.
“If he’s making those demands, it’s because he is using the leverage that he might otherwise go with Labour. If that’s the case, then I think people have everything they need to know that they can’t trust the guy.”
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National leader Chris Luxon says working with New Zealand First isn't their first preference, but they will if they have to.
After weeks of questions, Luxon's confirmed this morning he would work with them.
He's also suggested Chris Hipkins would do the same, despite Labour and NZ First both ruling each other out.
Luxon told Mike Hosking the election isn't done and dusted – it'll be extremely close.
He says his strong preference is for a National Act coalition.
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The Automobile Association is expressing its support for some of National's speed reduction promises.
National's announced it'll return many state highways to 100 km/h from 80, and many local roads to 50.
AA Policy Manager Dylan Thomsen told Tim Dower they like the idea of increasing expressway speeds, having more variable speed limits near schools, and fewer unmanned roadwork sites.
“That’s an area that’s a common frustration for a lot of people, so if we can improve that and have less of that, that’d be great.”
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National's deputy has confirmed the party would work with New Zealand First - if it came to it.
It's understood leader Chris Luxon will confirm in a social media video today that he's willing to work with Winston Peters if necessary.
It comes after weeks of questions.
Nicola Willis told Tim Dower their preference is to form a two-party coalition government of National and ACT.
“Realistically, if New Zealand First is to return to Parliament and we need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour out, to keep the coalition of chaos of Te Pati Maori and the Greens out.”
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Same policy, slightly different flavour under National, Labour, ACT, and the Greens.
All 4 parties have unveiled new tweaks to existing immigration laws, and Labour is looking to boost struggling sectors with changes to the Green List and Recovery Visa extensions.
17 new roles will be added to the list and the RSE worker cap will increase by 500.
Labour's Immigration Spokesperson Andrew Little says several industries are struggling and will need the extra labour boost soon.
"The construction sector is starting to struggle, the engineering trade can't recruit locally and will have to recruit offshore- so we put those on the list."
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Immigration Minister Andrew Little revealed yesterday that the Government will make immediate changes and tweaks to the Green List, seasonal employment, and compliance visits.
Seeing the RSE cap will increase by 500 spots for the coming summer, he joins the Weekend Collective to discuss the reason for the quick changes.
Plus, Simeon Brown talks about how National wants to increase the speed limit to 100km.
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The National Party wants to change the balance when it comes road safety.
If elected, National would return many state highways to 100 kilometres per hour from 80 and many local roads to 50.
The Kapiti Expressway and Transmission Gully would be bumped up to 110 - as would the Puhoi to Warkworth motorway if it's safe to do that.
Public Service Spokesperson Simeon Brown says speed limits around schools will remain low.
"It makes sense to have a slower speed limit when children are present. We want to see those as variable speed limits- so 30 or 40 kilometres during pick-up or drop-off times."
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This week on the Sunday Panel, The Front Page podcast's Damien Venuto and Coast's Lorna Riley joined in on a discussion about the following:
Co-governance- a column by Heather du Plessis-Allan discussed the newly-released poll showing that 48 per cent of respondents want a referendum on Māori co-governance. Only 17 per cent said no. ACT is the only party backing a referendum on co-governance and every other party either outright rejects it or says it isn’t important. But are we just putting our heads in the sand? Is it a conversation we will need to have at some point? Does it need to be divisive- could it be constructive?
What did we think of the pre-election debates? The reaction to the first set of debates has been lukewarm- do they need shaking up? Do we need to take away the folder of notes and try and get more genuine answers out of politicians rather than their heavily rehearsed answers? How do we make debates more entertaining and informative?
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The first televised leaders debate of the election season has been dubbed one of the more forgettable.
National's Chris Luxon and Labour's Chris Hipkins went head to head at the TVNZ-hosted forum and jousted over tax, crime, housing and climate change.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says the lukewarm reaction to the first debate is a symptom of audiences not paying attention to earlier campaign events.
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As political parties lay out their promises ahead of the election, breast cancer advocates are encouraging candidates to make tacking breast cancer a priority.
Breast cancer is the leading cause of death for women under 65.
Kat Sprowell, a survivor of Triple Negative Breast Cancer, is calling on politicians to do better.
"I think it is lacking, and I feel really unclear exactly where they stand. It's a growing issue and something that we need real clarity on."
Breast Cancer Foundation NZ chief executive Ah-leen Rayner says breast cancer can be treatable if identified early- and there's more that can be done for Kiwi women.
"It's not just about drug access, there are other aspects in terms of it. The high-risk screening pathway is one of them, timely treatment is another and obviously drug access is one of the key things."
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Aside from the Wahs, who have dominated public discourse for the last few weeks, there are two other matters of some significance going on at the moment - the General Election and the Rugby World Cup.
It dawned on me on Friday morning - after the Newshub Nation’s Powerbrokers Debate, and while we wait patiently for the All Blacks to take to the field again - that these events have quite a bit in common.
They are both at times exciting, but for the most part boring, and occasionally headache inducing.
Put simply, both are in need of a shakeup of both style and formats.
Last weekend I was amped for the debates, but reminded this week that debates aren’t really debates. They’re a time restrained forum in which leaders, supported by a folder filled with back up notes, repeat well-rehearsed policy messages, while they may attempt a few zingers. It’s all about a strong defence and not messing it up.
We don’t learn anything new. Nor do we get much of a feel for the person behind the politics. To be fair, there has been the odd lively moment, especially in the Minor Leaders Debate but the overwhelming repetition of the same old narratives generally makes for pretty dull stuff. Talking over people doesn’t work in day-to-day life. It’s not suddenly going to work on television. The format needs a shake-up – if you’re going to make the debates look like a game show – maybe throw some game in.
The Rugby World Cup is similar. Rugby is a brilliant sport to watch, except at the professional level where defence and time wasting dominate. I don’t care how they do it, but the game and tournament desperately needs to speed up. Fewer rules? Fewer set pieces? Fewer advantages?
Hang on – it’s starting to sound like something else.
And regarding the tournament, cooler temperatures? Fewer teams? Bigger squads? More jeopardy in pool play? Let’s speed this up.
Crazily, the Election and RWC collide on the weekend of the 14th and 15th October when the All Blacks play their quarter final – a live or die game. The same can be said for the fate of our politicians as the election results come in.
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The leaders' debate fails to catch fire, but the minor parties give us an entertaining showcase, Victoria University axes 229 jobs and 6 courses, with 11 more that could meet the same fate and hundreds of The Warehouse Group sites will be powered by solar farms.
Simon Wilson and Shane Te Pou join the Weekend Collective to wrap up the week.
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Another allegation of bullying in the Labour Party.
MP Shanan Halbert has been accused of bullying by several former staff dating back more than a year, labelling him “manipulative”, “scheming” and “a narcissist”.
Minor party leaders have had their say in the latest election debate.
Act’s David Seymour, the Green’s Marama Davidson, NZ First’s Winston Peters and Te Pati Maori’s Debbie Ngawera-Packer all squared off in last night’s debate on Newshub Nation.
And all parties have committed to keep school lunches going.
It’s only funded out to the end of the year, but Labour and National have expressed interest in keeping it going.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls joined Tim Dower.
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Labour says efforts to crack down on ram raids are working.
The party's police spokesperson is hitting back at claims by National Leader Chris Luxon that there are two ram raids a day.
Ginny Andersen told Tim Dower data released by Police shows a 70 percent reduction in ram raids from their peak of 116 a month in August last year.
“While the numbers are a bit noisy, they have been in decline generally since that point where they peaked. So they reached 35, which is the lowest we’ve had over a two-year period.”
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The powerbrokers’ debate last night – you learn anything from it?
Your impression of anyone improve, or did you feel the shine coming off someone by the way they conducted themselves?
I thought it was bloody awful myself, but I stuck with it because I kinda had to.
Let's forget the weird pub beer garden look of the whole thing, I just want to think about the substance of the, er, “debate” and the performance of the players.
From right to left on your screen:
Winston Peters - seemed to treat the whole thing as a bit of a joke...wasn't taking it at all seriously. Didn't do himself any good. Almost like it was a rehearsal. Nothing useful to say.
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer - Awful, just awful, so, pretty much as expected. Behaved like a silly third-former – the patronising way she referred to Mr Peters as Matua obviously intended as a put-down, but water off a duck's back to Peters.
Marama Davidson - not a lot better than Packer banged on and on about a wealth tax that's not going to happen being the answer to, well, just about everything really. Message seemed to be: let's take money off people who've done something with their lives, give it to people who'll never do anything with their lives, and all our problems will magically be fixed.
Davidson at least was cogent and fairly coherent and I was wondering how much she appreciated all the buddy-buddy high fives and fist pumps, did I even hear 'you go girl' at one point? Silly Debbie. Sit down Debbie.
David Seymour – Disappointing. Should have been the star of the show, but he went on far too long, tried to set out policy details when this just wasn't a serious forum. My suggestion: either say 'no' if you're asked to appear with the same crummy crowd next time, or turn up with a bag of random insults and just hurl those around.
Overall, I wanna say it's an hour of my life I'll never get back, and that's true, it's gone for good. What it confirmed for me though was that out of those four, there's only one I want anywhere near the Treasury benches in three weeks' time.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls tells us who the surprise appearances came from during Christopher Luxon’s walkabout on Auckland’s waterfront today.
Plus, did National announce any policy today?
Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen continued his road trip with Chris Hipkins – this time through Manawatu and the Wairarapa.
Plus, the Election 2023 headlines you need to know – including the latest on the school lunches policy and Act’s plan for the Retirement Commission.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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David Seymour and ACT are nothing if not pragmatists.
After taking in the impact of the PREFU, the pre-election fiscal and economic update provided by the Government, Seymour has made some changes to ACT’s alternative budget, principally softening tax cuts to account for economic conditions.
Previously, ACT had proposed a two tier tax system with a top rate of 28%. Now it's going to get there, but it'll get there slowly and via a three tier tax system with a top rate of 33%. So few figures here for you. But ACT is advocating for all those earning under 60K to be taxed at 17.5%. Between 60 and 70K at 30, between 70 and 180K 33%, earnings above that at 39%. From the fiscal years 25/26, the 30% tax bracket would be expanded to include those earning between 70 and 180K - quite a big jump. The following year the top tax rate of 180K plus would be lowered from 39% to 33%.
Basically, what he's done is looked at the Government's books, crunched the numbers and realised we can't afford the tax cuts he proposed as quickly as he would like and has made changes. He has also delayed increased spending to defence and will speed up the rate at which the age for super will rise to 67. The age hike was to increase by two months every year from 2024, so even then that would have still been 12 years before the age of super went up to 67. The age hike was to be increased by two months every year from 2024. The latest document has increased the rate of change to three months every year. So it's eight years, not 12, if you take my maths for anything. So there's still plenty of time for people to plan and prepare for the change.
You know, if you're sitting here at 60, thinking the miserable buggars, you should still be fine. Anybody younger will be okay. They'll have time to plan. Seymour defends the refinement of the alternative budget as reflecting the challenging economic environment. He said PREFU showed Labour has no plans to pay off debt. Every year forecast, the country borrows more and more until we lose first world status, and that just is unacceptable to them. He says we can't offer the same tax cuts we previously proposed because Grant Robertson has left the cupboard bare. Which does rather make me wonder whether National can still afford their proposed tax cuts.
So do you see it as common sense from ACT? Seymour is a leader of a minor party, but he's certainly carrying himself like a man with expectations post October 14. And I didn't see all of the minor parties debate last night because #Winston Peters. I don't even know why he was there. I thought it was supposed to be the existing minor party leaders. I mean cause why not TOP? I mean, they must have a formula by which they do it, any party that's polling 5% is welcome, but none the less, I would have had more stringent rules!
David Seymour sort of looked like he didn't really want to be there, that he felt that he was slightly better than the other three party leaders. He should have been with the grown-ups, not with the children. And interesting that every single one of the leaders of the minor parties that were shown are Māori. Do we need co-governance to enforce giving Māori a seat at the table? It shows if they want one, they can jolly well go out and get one if they so wish.
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National’s tax fantasy is dead.
Now, if you’re one of the people who seem to go completely ape whenever I mention the National Party and who accuse me every time of being anti-National, calm the farm for a minute. Because what I said is a quote. I’m not saying it. It’s a quote.
It’s a quote from the headline on political commentator Matthew Hooton’s weekly column, which is published every Friday morning.
Matthew Hooton who was the PR man for Todd Muller when he was National leader for five minutes. Matthew Hooton who said this time last year that the current Labour government is the most inept government New Zealand has ever had.
So he’s not saying what he’s saying today in the NZ Herald because he’s anti-National.
The reason he’s saying National’s tax plan is dead, is because the ACT Party has looked at the Government’s books - which were opened for all the world to see last week in the Pre-Election Fiscal Update (PREFU - and has had a re-think on taxation.
And, as part of that re-think, it’s decided that now is not the time for significant tax cuts. And I agree.
ACT is saying now that it reckons the country could afford tax cuts of several hundred dollars a year. Compare that to National, which is still trotting-out the old “trust, us, everything will be fine” line. And is still telling us that a National-led government would reduce income tax by as much as several hundred dollars a month.
ACT says several hundred dollars a year. National says several hundred dollars a month.
And Matthew Hooton, in his article today, is saying that ACT’s revised approach on tax is the final nail for National’s policy because there’s no chance it could get 61 votes in Parliament.
And he is spot on. ACT wouldn’t support National’s tax plan. Neither would New Zealand First. Winston Peters has made it very clear that he doesn’t support National’s policy.
He said at a public meeting on Monday that he would even consider trying to get rid of National’s tax cuts as part of any coalition discussions.
So you can see why Christopher Luxon, pretty much every time he speaks, tells people to give both of their votes to National. Because without an outright majority in Parliament, the tax cuts are history.
But we know that National doesn’t have a hope-in-hell of getting a majority like Labour has at the moment. I think we’ve learned from the last three years that an outright majority is a disaster.
So without its coalition partners supporting its tax plan, then Matthew Hooton is spot-on when he says National’s tax policy is history.
As he says in his article, when National found itself being criticised left, right and centre for its policy, it could have done something simple like tweak the timing of it and voters would have accepted that, because of the current financial situation.
But National didn’t do that. In fact, it dug its heels in. Telling us all that it had the modelling; it had the numbers; and it would be pressing-on with the cuts if it ended up in government. Rock solid.
Or as Matthew Hooton describes it: “National then decided to double-down on its lie, smearing the professional reputation of the country’s most reputable economists, financial analysts and tax experts.”
So I think in light of National’s obvious coalition partner, ACT, coming out and saying now is not the time to be promising big tax cuts, and revising its own tax policy, National needs to do the same.
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Willow-Jean Prime, who I think it is fair to suggest will lose her Northland seat this time around, has nevertheless been out on the hustings campaigning and she has struck trouble.
She has been in local and national politics for 20 years and has never seen racism like it, she says. She calls it unhinged.
Here, in part I suspect, is the problem. A couple of events at local pubs have led her to make the comments.
For the record, verbal abuse is never acceptable, and one can imagine the sort of thing that gets tossed around at a rowdy, old pub meeting of the candidates. It's also important to point out we weren't there, so interpretations as to what is unhinged or not will vary.
However, it doesn’t surprise me. One of the things that happens at election time is we feel, for once that we have power and we have a voice. It’s a tangible out-working of democracy. We have two votes and we want to use them.
So when you end up in a room with a politician it's a chance for the voiceless to be heard. That's where the frustration comes in.
A lot of people feel ignored. A lot of people want to know that their local MP knows what the mood of the community or electorate is.
What this Government has done, whether they acknowledge it or not, is divide this country with their co-governance stance. Special services and programmes, and ministries, and departments, and polices, and treatment, based on race. And a lot of people think race based policy, is racist.
The media tried to get up David Seymour's nose this week on his co-governance stance. He said he was merely reflecting what is being said.
He is right. It is being said, and it is being said loudly, in places like pubs and public meetings with candidates.
Co-governance and its outworkings have caused anger and division. Huge swathes of New Zealand feel that Māori have got deals because they are Māori, that they are treated differently because they are Māori.
And those people believe in a free and open democracy that race does not, and should not, play a part in delivery of anything, whether it is health or voting or schooling or welfare.
As aggrieved as Willow-Jean might be, what she is seeing is democracy in action and the outworkings of separatism. She can call it unhinged if she likes.
But a lot would argue it's merely trying to redress the imbalance.
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So on Tuesday evening I was quite excited about the first Leaders Debate.
It was a funny old evening. I thought Jessica Mutch McKay did a good job moving things along but the two Chris’s energy wanned, and so did mine. It wasn’t a dynamic debate.
There wasn’t actually a lot of debate.
So, after a solid, but slightly disappointing Leaders Debate, I then turned my attention to the Newshub Nation Powerbrokers' Debate featuring Minor party leaders, which took place last night on Three. Surely this was going to be more entertaining? It did after all feature David Seymour, who put in a sharp and humorous performance at the ASB Great Debate last week in Queenstown. And it was set in a pub.
Joining him was New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, and Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson.
Rebecca Wright was the moderator and she did a commendable job keeping this lot under control, although it was a challenge and there was plenty of spirited bickering.
They covered off race issues, tax reform, law and order, and coalition plans. If you are a politics’ nerd, you probably didn’t learn anything new from the candidates, with each repeating their party’s already known policies.
For others though, this debate likely provided more exposure to the minor parties and some clarity on their values and a few of their policies.
Performance wise Marama and Debbie managed to get their messages across crisply and put on a good double act. Marama in particular was ‘on’ and didn’t take any nonsense.
David Seymour and Winston Peters in contrast tended to ramble and didn’t always deliver a clear message.
But there was plenty of fun as well. Especially when Rebecca Wright asked each party for their bottom lines in possible coalition negotiations. While Greens and Te Pati Maori spoke simply —wealth tax and poverty— Winston Peters and David Seymour put on a show over whether they could work together that gave you a glimpse of what Luxon may have to deal with...
Firemen and adults with trousers on is what to expect folks! Rebecca Wright probably summed that up well when she said, I’m beginning to pity Christopher Luxon.
So what do you think? Can they work together? Of course they will if they have to right - but it might be like herding cats.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Jordan Williams from the Taxpayers' Union and Ali Jones from Red PR joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Labour MP Greg O'Connor has done the unthinkable and conceded that Labour is likely going to lose the election. Is this a rookie move or is there strategy behind this?
80 percent of Kiwis are wondering if Chris Luxon will work with Winston Peters - should Luxon continue to not say anything until the election?
The president of the Coromandel chapter of the Rebels gang has apologised for the bad behaviour of his members over the weekend. Is this a refreshing approach from them?
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ACT leader David Seymour isn't sure National's proposed taxes will help New Zealanders.
The party's released their alternative budget today, promising modest income tax cuts of $16 billion over four years.
It's also proposing three tax rates rather than five.
Seymour says whoever leads the next Government will have to have an honest conversation about what the numbers require.
"I'm not confident that adding more taxes is the real solution- the real solution is to get spending under control. Which we do, as I say, by $25 billion."
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The Labour Party insists its Ohariu candidate isn't telling voters to only give him their electorate vote.
The Post reports Greg O'Connor told voters at a meeting that with polling going the way it is, National Deputy Leader Nicola Willis is likely to be the next Finance Minister.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says Greg O'Connor was 'too honest' about his intentions by encouraging voters to only give him their electorate vote.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Report Jason Walls talks through Act’s alternative budget – and also tells us if there’s any “fizz” for tonight’s Minor Leaders Debate.
Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen discusses Chris Hipkins’ visit to Hawke’s Bay.
And he tells us the special gift the Labour leader received.
Plus, the Election 2023 headlines you need to know.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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ACT is promising a huge shake-up to the education system.
Its new education policy would crack down on ECE providers that don't teach children the basics.
The B4 School Check would be extended to include education progress.
Under ACT, the checks will make sure kids can read their name, know the alphabet, hold a pencil, pick up a book, and communicate thoughts and ideas.
Dame Lesley Max, Co-Founder of the Great Potentials Foundation, told Kerre Woodham that an idea seems to have developed that the raising of children is done externally to the home.
She said that relying on external agencies to raise and guide our children is how we have wound up in the place that we’re in.
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I am very reassured by the ratings of the first Leaders' Debate.
It was a bit over one million, which is about the same as the last election and down a bit on the 2017 debate between Bill English and Jacinda Ardern.
I am reassured because engagement is critical and you could argue never more critical than currently, given the state of the country.
Just because the result is a forgone conclusion doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be involved.
If you want to talk numbers, look at the Ipsos issues poll.
It’s a disaster for Labour. They have collapsed in virtually every issue that is important to us, I'll give the numbers later, but essentially, who do you trust more on any given issue? The answer is now National.
Also never forget the direction poll: is the country going in the right direction? The 63 % that say no is the real key to the election. Governments that deliver that number don’t get three more years.
But along with the podcast numbers I gave you the other day, where this shows podcast has generated over a million downloads for the first time.
But not just for us, but for any podcast in this country, that shows we are into this thing, despite the fact it's not really a contest.
In a couple of weeks the debate will shift, it’ll be about turn out.
Labour will have trouble with apathy. People can't be bothered turning out for losers.
But National will worry about people assuming it's over and therefore not voting.
Although I would argue those days are gone given early voting basically gives you no excuse not to participate.
A million people reminds us that elections are important, and politics, for all you want to say about it, still galvanises us.
You don’t get a million people for anything anymore, apart from the All Blacks in World Cup, possibly the warriors in the final, and elections.
As segregated and busy as we may be, who runs the country and how they run it still matters to the vast majority of us, and that is a good thing.
They talk about teaching civics in schools, the best civics lesson you'll ever get is watching this campaign: studying what they say, what they promise, and what their record is.
And once you have done that, exercising your democratic duty.
It still thrills me that voting here is voluntary yet we still get such a good turn out
A million plus people.
Whether its viewership or downloads, numbers don’t lie.
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“At the end of the day it comes down to the economy,” Luxon said on what the big difference is between Labour and National after the two leaders agreed on several topics during the recent leader's debate.
Luxon told Mike Hosking that the party is working incredibly hard to pull the undecided 12% vote onto their side.
When asked why Luxon wasn’t being “upfront” on what his coalition plans would be if he won, Luxon said the nature of MMP meant he had to keep his options open.
“David and I have a good personal relationship, we do catch up and talk regularly,” Luxon said of the ACT Party leader.
Luxon would not confirm whether he would work with Winston Peters after being repeatedly grilled by Hosking.
“All I can say Mike is it depends on what happens on the night.
“I will work with whatever the New Zealand people give me, my preference is a National-ACT coalition,” Luxon.
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An education researcher says some of ACT's education policies would be a radical change while others are no brainers.
The party wants to implement standardised testing, with University Entrance replacing NCEA Level Three.
The B4 School Check would be extended to include education progress, and Early Childhood Education providers that don't contribute to child development risk losing funding or licensing.
New Zealand Initiative Research Fellow Michael Johnston told Mike Hosking that one thing he likes is that schools can develop their own curricula, as long as they adhere with core requirements.
He says that's a good way ahead to avoid an ongoing political battle over curriculum.
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National's Nicola Willis is satisfied with her party pulling ahead of the competition in another poll.
The latest One News-Verian poll puts the National Party on 37 percent - down 2 points - and Labour on 27, down one.
NZ First has crossed the 5 percent threshold again- meaning the party could join National and ACT in Parliament.
Nicola Willis says this poll shows voters are in the mood for change, which she believes a vote for National could fix.
"A vote for any other party risks 3 more years of Labour, beholden to Te Pāti Māori and the Greens. That would be a coalition of chaos."
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National's support has slipped, but a poll shows it's still miles ahead of the competition.
The latest One News-Verian poll puts the National Party on 37 percent - down 2 points - and Labour on 27, down one.
The Greens and ACT are both up two points - neck-in-neck on 12 percent - and NZ First is steady on 5.
Only the centre-right bloc could form a Government- but Hipkins and Luxon are tied as preferred Prime Minister with 23 percent.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says this is proof NZ First will have to be part of a National/ACT coalition, because 61 seats is a very narrow majority.
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The alarm is being sounded about a future drop off in Pharmac funding.
A boost for the drug buying agency announced in Budget 2022- ends in 2024.
Medicines NZ Chief Executive Graeme Jarvis wants the major parties to commit to continuing the money.
He says if the gap isn't filled, Treasury is warning there will be years where it won't be possible to keep funding the same medicines.
"So in other words, there's going to have to be either a reduction in the number of medicines funded- or patients won't get access to them if we do not fund this $181 million dollar hole."
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Help and support for exploited migrants will be delivered in a new Government scheme.
The Government has confirmed a package of basic financial support, for accommodation and essential living costs.
It plans to stop 90-day trial periods for employers using the Accredited Employer Work Visa.
Immigration Minister Andrew Little says they're tightening the scheme meant to fill gaps by letting businesses employ offshore.
"The vast majority of employers are doing exactly that, they're doing a good job. There is a small number, a very small minority who seem to have found an opportunity to scam others."
Little says investigations into employers are underway.
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Another snapshot of how political parties are faring in the polls is out at 6pm - in another One News -Verian poll.
Its figures last week had National leaps and bounds ahead of Labour, which have been on stubbornly low 20s for weeks.
Newstalk ZB chief political reporter Aaron Dahmen says even a one percent bump would help Labour.
National has been criticised for not releasing costings for its multi-billion-dollar tax cut package- and Dahmen says that could play into today's rankings.
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Chris Hipkins revealed an unexpected policy announcement in last night's debate.
During last night's event, Hipkins said the wanted to ban sugary drinks in secondary schools- claiming they already were in primary schools.
Today, he claimed he'd misremembered banning sugary drinks from primary schools, but had consulted on this issue as Education Minister.
Health Coalition Aotearoa co-chair Boyd Swinburne said Chris Hipkins had the opportunity to introduce tougher measures against sugary drinks in schools.
"It was a kind of policy that didn't have much impact. But it was put on the table by the Ministry of Education and went out for consultation about what schools should be doing in this respect."
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In today’s Election Fix, Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen has been with Chris Hipkins on the East Coast – where he’s announced more funding for cyclone recovery.
He also gives us an insight into the Labour leader’s gaming skills.
Political reporter Sophie Trigger talks through Christopher Luxon’s visit to a goat farm and his continued reaction to last night’s debate.
Plus, the key Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Last night’s leaders’ debate on TV was a brilliant advertisement for the minor parties.
In fact, I reckon Labour and National could make some money out of it because, as far as I’m concerned, I thought it provided 90 minutes of reasons not to go with the traditional red and blue parties.
So what I reckon Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon should be doing today, is writing out some invoices and sending them to all the minor parties, because that kind of primetime TV advertising doesn’t come cheap.
The common consensus among the commentators seems to be that Christopher Luxon’s performance was stronger than Labour leader Chris Hipkins’. It happens all the time - people chiming in with their thoughts on who “won”.
But I actually think neither of them won. It was the minor parties who won.
And as for the analysis after the debate. Man alive, if you stuck around for that, what about all the ridiculous sporting analogies?
We had former National and New Zealand First MP Tau Henare, former Labour leader David Cunliffe and TVNZ’s deputy political editor Maiki Sherman. And all the two guys could bang on about was the All Blacks and the Warriors and the World Cup.
At one point, poor-old Maiki obviously felt she had no option but to go down the sporting analogy route. She said as much.
Because it seemed every time Tau Henare and David Cunliffe opened their mouths, they’d go on about it being “a bit like the Warriors”, or “Christopher Luxon was like France and Chris Hipkins was like the All Blacks…and, like the All Blacks, Hipkins needs to come back and show he’s got more in the tank.”
I don’t know about you. But when I sat there watching that, I thought to myself ‘if this is high quality political analysis, then God help us’.
So the sporting analogies have to go from the next debate. So too do some of the meaningless questions. I don’t care what book Christopher Luxon is reading at the moment. I don’t care how many times they’ve been into churches this year.
What I did want to know last night, though, is why Chris Hipkins - just hours before the debate - made that haphazard announcement that Labour was ditching its goal of reducing the prison population by 30 percent.
It happened yesterday afternoon and had some people speculating that it was a pre-emptive move ahead of the debate. A pre-emptive move that Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis didn’t seem to even know about until after Chris Hipkins had announced it.
That’s the stuff I wanted to hear about. But we didn’t, of course, because these debates are carefully stage-managed and the topics up for discussion would have been settled-on weeks ago.
Which meant all it did, was reinforce the view some people have that our two main political parties are increasingly becoming one and the same.
Christopher Luxon said it himself - several times. It was something along the lines of “we both want the same things, but we’ve got different ideas on how to achieve them.”
The question there then is that, when it comes to voting, do we vote for outcomes or do we vote for methods of achieving those outcomes?
Hands down, we vote for outcomes. So if you’ve got the leaders of the two big political parties saying they want the same outcomes - then bring-in the minor parties. Because last night’s debate showed us that the minor parties really are the only alternatives to what we have now.
Political commentator Matthew Hooton wrote a piece in the NZ Herald recently saying that voter confidence in what he calls Labour and National’s “increasingly lazy, cynical and arrogant” duopoly in New Zealand politics has collapsed.
He says never before have Labour and National been rejected by so many voters at the same time.
And I reckon, based on what we saw in last night’s TV debate, support for the purple vote is about to get even lower. And I’m in no doubt that, when it comes to picking a winner from last night, it was the minor parties. It wasn’t Luxon and it wasn’t Hipkins.
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I know people are complaining that last night's debate between the leaders of Labour and National was boring. But seriously, give me a ‘let's get on with business, steady as she goes’ Prime Minister any day.
I am sick and tired of 'rockstar razzle-dazzle' prime ministers who give up when the going gets tough, be they ‘ponytail pulling, catwalk modeling’ Prime ministers or ‘unicorn riding, fairy dust sprinkling, jazz hand waving’ Prime Ministers. Give me somebody solid, sensible, reliable, who understands policy, who understands how to get things done, and I will be happy.
It wasn't so much a debate. I don't think either leader was given enough space to debate the serious issues. It seemed odd that a question about what's your favourite beach was given the same weighting as Te Reo in schools, and some of the questions did seem absolutely bizarre. Speculation over whether China would invade Taiwan? Anybody with a passing interest in politics knows how prickly China is. Any suggestion of an answer from either man would have had diplomatic repercussions.
I was gobsmacked when that question was posed. The only reason I could see for asking it was to test how much of a political rookie Christopher Luxon was. If he’d answered that in any kind of speculative fashion, all hell would have broken loose, but he had the great good sense to concur with the Prime Minister that it was absolutely ridiculous to speculate over a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Christopher Luxon coped far better than he had predicted he would. Beforehand, there was a lot of tussling for the position of underdog between Chris and Christopher, and I thought he was actually quite telegenic. He looked better on the telly than he does in the newspaper, certainly better than in the CTU’s unflattering portrait they used in their ads.
Chris Hipkins I thought look tired. I suppose he would be given he's running the country and campaigning, but it's television, you can't afford to look knackered. And while Chris Hipkins got in a few jabs with how the tax cuts will be funded. ‘Are you really going to be selling off that many houses to overseas buyers?’ ‘And are you depending on New Zealanders to gamble more to fund your tax cuts?’ I thought there were a couple of good jabs in there. ‘The boot camp's not working. You know, they didn't work the first time around.’ Christopher Luxon was able to respond to them. He managed to repeat the line of Labour’s Coalition of Chaos with Labour, Te Pati Maori, the Green Party, and the gangs often enough for it to hit home.
There was a lot of agreement between them and I think that's something that everybody has picked up on, particularly in this election. There isn't that much difference between National and Labour, and to be honest, I found that reasonably reassuring.
They're not mad ideologues, they're not frothing at the mouth to completely disestablish a New Zealand that we know, it's just how we get there. Everybody wants people to have the opportunity to own their own home if that's what they wish. Nobody wants to see the gangs in charge. Nobody wants to see kids going into crime following the family trade. Everybody wants to see New Zealand prosper.
It's just how you deliver that, where there is the difference between the parties. And I thought Christopher Luxon had the upper hand because it is very hard for Chris Hipkins to defend his government's record, their record on just about everything is abysmal and indefensible. Campaigning during a time of rampant inflation, a cost-of-living crisis, and a crime wave, has got to be tough going.
Most commentators agreed Christopher Luxon was the winner on the night. Even the Spin-off commentators, and you know, they traditionally take a younger, lefter view on political matters. And I tend to agree. He came across as energetic, upbeat, and not nearly as threatening as the CTU ads have tried to paint him. Chris Hipkins came across as tired and there's still a long way to go until polling day.
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Today on Newstalk ZB Canterbury Mornings John MacDonald was joined by ACT Leader, David Seymour.
John asked him if he felt that voters would now look to the smaller parties after last night's Leaders' Debate. They also talked about why his party is against co-governance, and how his policies on law and order will bring crime under control in New Zealand.
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So, the debate.
Firstly, I fear I may be wasting your time if you didn't see it. If you didn't, you didn't miss much.
If you did see it you will have been, I assume, bored witless.
If you were a Chris Hipkins fan going in I don't think he did anything to put you off.
Chris Luxon did well because it was his to lose. In fact, given the build up about him being new and so on, he did very well.
He looked in command of what he was saying but then, hype aside, you don't get to be the leader of a large political party by not being able to front and explain yourself. So in that sense I wasn't surprised.
They agreed on a lot of stuff, which plays into the idea that National are Labour-light and may give room to the minor players who want a bit more upheaval.
There were a series of hopelessly condescending quick-fire questions about their favourite beach and the last book they read and whether they had ever had a speeding ticket. Those questions are for breakfast TV, not a prime time debate.
The questions from the viewers were a waste of time and smacked of tired lazy production. There is not a question out there a moderator can't ask, we don't need to see Ken of Kaitaia.
Both men were respectful, and that might be to Hipkins' disadvantage. He never looks like he is desperate and he should, because he is.
He is losing this campaign, and badly, and he needed to show us he cared. He never looks over-exercised about anything. Nothing is brilliant, nothing is a shambles. It's just good ol' Chippy, talking about vaping or gangs or tax or his favourite beach.
If you have followed this campaign you would have learned nothing. If you had followed none of it you might have picked up a few generalities but, to be fair, if you hadn't followed the campaign you are not the sort of person to watch a debate because you clearly aren't that interested.
Ultimately, that's why the debate failed its audience. People who watch debates know what's going on. We needed life, we needed spark, we needed passion. Yet, we got a couple of blokes holding their own and a moderator sadly working too hard on telling us it was fun.
My theory is this campaign is over and has been for sometime, that the result is a forgone conclusion, and the debate sort of reflected that. We went through the motions, no one fell on their face and we all know what's going to happen in a couple of weeks.
Was there a winner? Yes.
It was those who didn't watch because you had a more productive time.
And Chris Luxon, who showed he is more than up to the task.
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MPs Megan Woods and Mark Mitchell joined the Mike Hosking Breakfast to wrap the week's political news.
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Last night saw the first leaders’ debate between Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Chris Luxon.
Most seem to agree that it was a lacklustre affair, with Luxon perhaps winning by a hair.
Political Commentator Brigitte Morten told Mike Hosking that in the past, audiences would see politicians under pressure when it came to live debates.
She said that since every press conference is now streamed live on social media, the pressure is off, and the debates just become a competition of talking points.
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Labour says it's taking a long-term approach to reducing youth crime.
In Auckland, a 16-year-old boy has been charged over Monday's fatal bus station attack, the victim's family revealing he was a 24-year-old alleged 501 deportee from Australia.
And in Christchurch, an 18-year-old learner driver is facing charges over Sunday's fatal Rangiora crash, with new figures revealing Canterbury has been facing a sharp rise in serious boy racer incidents.
Labour's Carmel Sepuloni told Kate Hawkesby that she understands community concerns about youth crime, but there is no easy short-term fix.
She says the Government has to continue to do what works to reduce crime over the long term.
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How over all the violence are we right now?
I can’t tell you how over it I am. I’m sure you are too. It’s actually getting ridiculous and what I’m worried about now is that not even a change of government is going to stop it.
A stabbing murder at an Albany bus stop in Auckland Monday, another knife incident 30 minutes later in Auckland’s Waterview, the next day, Tuesday, a person taken into custody after a knife found Kepa Road, in Auckland’s Orakei. That same day a shooting at a Rotorua intersection.
And it’s not just Auckland and Rotorua, the night before in Christchurch ten youths went on a crime spree, breaking into shops to steal stuff, also stealing cars. The week prior there were three aggravated robberies across Auckland’s Point Chevalier and Mt Albert... a gang member was rounded up for those.
These are just the ones that make the news. And don’t get me started on all the people out on ankle bracelets on home detention who’re committing crimes and absconding from Police. The level of crime, particularly youth crime, is a major issue... we know it, we’ve had years of it building to this point. It’s one of the things politicians argue about at length in terms of how to solve. Is it absent disinterested parents? Is it gang households? Is it gang recruiters? Is it school absenteeism and boredom from disengaged youths who’ve dropped out of school? Is it addiction issues... alcohol, drugs, vapes? Is it poverty? Is it cost of living? Is it Tik Tok? Is it Kelvin Davis’ genius plan to empty the prisons? A plan they’re now resiling from, surprise surprise.
How much can we pin on that particular disastrous policy? Probably quite a lot to be honest. Consider the irony, when the new Labour government back in 2017, promised to reduce the prison population by 30% over 15 years. Commentators at the time said, “the last thing any Government wants is to look soft on crime.” Fast forward to 2023 and what do we have here? An election about to be lost by the government based on exactly that. They've looked too soft on crime. Endless soft on crime decisions, which have seen us end up where we are.
So given all that, what are the solutions? The criminals and the gangs already running amok. The horse has bolted. So how to turn this around? It's complex, complex, complex, they keep telling us. And to be fair, I think it is. So are the solutions community based? Do offenders need to face tougher penalties? Should we lock more young people up? Should we invest more in their education? Should we work with parents more? Are schools doing enough? Are the Police well enough resourced to deal with it?
Last night at the leaders debate Chris Hipkins said he wants to 'turn young people's lives around'. That's a bit rich when you've had 6 years to do that, and you didn't. Luxon said they'll tackle the gangs and back the Police. Hipkins then said they'll go after gangs too. But all the tough talk doesn't mean much if the reality doesn't match.
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Some are picking Chris Luxon as narrowly taking the crown in last night's leaders’ debate.
The National Party Leader went head to head with Labour Party Leader Chris Hipkins in the first of three debates ahead of the election.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor, Jason Walls, told Kate Hawkesby who he thought came out on top.
He says Luxon was more passionate and had a better plan on law and order, whereas he believes Hipkins couldn't defend the Government's record on that issue.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Neale Jones from PR firm Capital and Paddy Gower from Paddy Gower Has Issues joined in on a discussion about the following topics- and more!
Labour appears to have quietly scrapped their prison reduction target- is this a big deal? They had achieved a 30 percent drop in the last two terms but it's since climbed again to 20 percent. Does it seem to you also that Hipkins accidentally announced this?
More young people are behind violent crimes- in the last couple days, we've seen an 18-year-old in court following a deadly car accident and a 16-year-old accused of murder at Albany. What's going on? Is this nation growing more violent?
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A leading economist believes New Zealand's economy is at the "bottom edge" when compared to other developed countries.
This follows the Government laying out their Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update and revealing a surplus has been pushed out an extra year amid a lower tax take.
HSBC's Paul Bloxham says inflation isn't coming down fast enough, when compared to other countries.
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Last week, political parties polling above five percent squared off at Hamilton's Mystery Creek Events Centre.
Labour's Damien O’Connor, National's Todd McClay and others faced off in the Rural Issues debate, hosted by ZB's Heather du Plessis-Allan.
The Country's Jamie Mackay recapped the highs and lows of the debate.
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Labour and National are facing scrutiny as they promote their respective tax policies ahead of the election.
Both parties will also have the additional challenge of getting New Zealand back to budget surplus by 2027.
BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie explains why both parties should release a pre-Christmas budget ahead of the election.
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Chris Hipkins has just confirmed Labour is dropping its plan to get people out of jails.
When they first took over six years ago, Labour set a target of reducing the prison population by 30 percent in 15 years.
That target is now gone. Hipkins was asked about it today, and says there is no target for the next term.
This is massive, because Labour was celebrated for this. On November 29, 2018, there was a huge write up in the Guardian about how great Kelvin Davis was.
“The man on a mission to get New Zealand’s Māori out of prison”- said the headline
Labour's never backed down from this target, never admitted this was a mistake. As crime rose, as our concern over crime rose, as people with ankle bracelets on committed crimes- Labour stood by this.
And now they’ve backed down today. This is an admission that it was a bad idea, because of course it is.
How many crimes do we now have to point to where offenders have ankle bracelets on? They’ve already got in some sort of trouble, but they’re out in the community instead of in jail.
The young guy who shot up the construction site in Auckland earlier this year? He was at home with an ankle bracelet on, when he should’ve been in jail. His probation officer assessed that his risk of causing harm to other people because of the violent nature of his offending was high.
The guy arrested in connection with the shooting in the park across the road from a family home in Point England, Auckland? He had an ankle bracelet on.
The guy with Waikato tattooed across his face who police are currently chasing, who they say is too dangerous for any of us to go anywhere near- he is accused of murdering someone with a knife and he was out with an ankle bracelet on.
Labour can’t say that they’re dropping the target because job done- because it’s not.
At last count, prison population is only down 18 percent, that’s just over half of where they were aiming.
The only reason they’ve dropped this is because it’s a failure. It's made our country less safe, voters hate it, and they’re about to lose an election for doing things like this to New Zealand.
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The countdown is on to this election's first Leaders' Debate.
Labour's Chris Hipkins and National's Chris Luxon go head-to-head on TVNZ from 7pm.
Former National Prime Minister, Sir John Key, says Luxon's the under-dog - and may have the tougher job.
"There are actually a lot of people who want to vote for him and want to vote for National- so they will just be making sure he's the real deal. So there's a lot to play for Chris Luxon."
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A u-turn from Labour.
The Party says it'll dump its 2018 target of reducing the prison population by 30 percent within 15 years.
It says the crisis has been averted and a target's no longer needed.
National Party Corrections spokesperson Mark Mitchell says it's an extraordinary change.
He says it's been Labour's core justice policy for the past 6 years.
"At the same time, they had no plans to keep the public safe. And we've seen just a tsunami of violent crime and disorder in our country over the last 6 years."
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Prison population targets will be no more if Labour gets back in Government, because it says they've served their purpose.
In 2018, the Labour Government promised to reduce the prison population by 30 percent within 15 years.
Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says the target was set because prisons were bursting at the seams when Labour took office, describing scenes of triple bunks and mattresses in hallways.
ZB Political Editor Jason Walls says this policy change came as a shock to several key members of the Labour Government.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls and Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen take a look at tonight’s Leaders debate – and what we should expect.
Plus, they discuss another day of Chris Hipkins attacking National’s tax policy and whether it’s having any impact.
And we get the details of the Greens latest campaign policy.
Plus, the key Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date
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A former MP has some advice for both candidates in tonight’s leaders’ debate.
Labour's Chris Hipkins will face off against National’s Chris Luxon on TVNZ.
Peter Dunne mastered the crowd reactor tool the Worm during TV debates in the 2000s, and says Hipkins should control his words to avoid seeming snide.
But, he told Kate Hawkesby, there are traps for Luxon too.
He says Luxon needs to avoid management language and really connect with people.
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It's debate night tonight.
As the campaign takes its next step in intensity, the unknown this year is the Luxon factor. We have never seen him head to head, unless you watch Parliament and no one does.
He has down played his credentials against a bloke who has spent his entire career in politics.
A lot of energy goes into these things. Having hosted a couple over the years, they get nervous and they spend a good chunk of the day preparing.
They arrive early and get given a specific room, on a separate floor, so they can hunker down with their aides and run prep some more.
Their aides spend too much time asking questions about who goes where and why and when and how. There is a lot of flapping around in terms of TV crew, especially given these days not a lot of big production TV is done live anymore, so extra resources are wrangled and that creates an atmosphere all of its own.
So, quite a bit to play for.
The media are invited and they settle into a separate area, or as we did at least once in 2020, they sit in the studio as part of an audience.
They get to quiz the participants after the event, it gets dissected and the theory is it leads the news the next day.
There will also be a poll tonight to set the scene.
That poll will almost certainly be bad news for the Government, which will all most certainly lead to the first question of something like, "why are you doing so badly in the polls?"
Quite a bit comes down to the moderator. Tonight's is non-combative. I am not sure she will look to hold anyone to account per se, or inject herself into proceedings.
But as a punter, what I want is less dribble and more fact.
Someone like Hipkins has a hundred lines down pat, he can babble incessantly and say nothing. It doesn’t serve him well but it fills time.
And that is the Luxon key to victory. He has a Government on the ropes and he has a litany of examples where things have gone wrong, if not disastrously. He has material for Africa.
Hipkins has costings on a tax policy and he milks that at his risk, given the fatigue factor of the past week.
There is normally no winner, which leads to the two separate camps.
One camp will think tonight is critical while camp two thinks its important, but hardly the be-all and end-all.
I am in camp two. It's possible the poll, if it's really bad, will outshine the debate.
Hipkins, given his position, needs to win.
Luxon, given his position, needs to look credible.
So no pressure then.
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Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says he knows there is a lot riding on his performance in tonight's first leaders' debate as Labour needs to make up ground in the polls.
The PM told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking his party can be trusted to deliver on its election promises, will tackle crime, and that the economy will bounce back.
When asked by Hosking if the leaders' debate was his to lose, Hipkins replied he "wouldn't go that far".
"They are often more difficult for incumbent Prime Ministers than leaders of the opposition," he said.
"But I'm looking forward to the debate because we actually don't get much time in these election campaigns to talk about issues."
"And the leaders' debates are one of the times when you actually get to explore issues in a bit more depth."
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David Seymour said yesterday that the media can’t be trusted to fairly carry ACT’s message.
Based on the texts we got yesterday from people who attended the ACT launch rally, there may be some truth in that. In general, I don’t think we’re being well served by election coverage at the moment... but from all sides. The annoying disruptors, the shadow boxing politicians, the agenda driven clickbait media who proclaim not to have any agenda at all. Give it up, we can see your agenda, it’s plain as day. When you start insinuating someone is racist because someone else disrupted their campaign launch when that same person is a serial disruptor at multiple political party events, then you’ve lost the plot.
I think it’s just disingenuous all round. There is so much sideline noise this election campaign that it’s very difficult to actually hear any policy or detail over the hubbub of accusations and claims and counter claims. The hysteria around the coverage is drowning out any facts. I don’t know if it’s because the media are desperately trying to keep people engaged in the campaign and keep it interesting, therefore beating things up? Or are they worried about engagement dropping off now that the polls show a clear mood for change? Or are they doggedly trying to change people’s views in the hope a left-leaning government is restored? Either way, this ain’t it.
Which brings me to tonight. Tonight is the first televised leaders' debate, on TV One. All eyes will be on Christopher Luxon... the newbie, the rookie, they’ll be watching his every move and breath. That’s a lot of pressure on his shoulders, maybe he should’ve asked Shaun Johnson for some tips on how to carry a lot of pressure. I spoke to Nicola Willis on the show yesterday and asked her if he’s up for it and if we’re going to see him fire up a bit. She reckons he’s passionate and set to go.. the proof will be in the pudding.
Because an area ACT is getting cut through is on is their messaging that the Nat’s are just Labour Lite. We’re hearing that a lot from people at the moment. That Luxon needs more mongrel, he’s not hungry enough, not strong enough, he’s too corporate and soft.
So, it’s a fine line isn’t it for him tonight. He’s got to balance those who want to see a bit of a harder edge and a real difference between National and Labour, with those soft middle swing voters who may be scared off by too much mongrel. He’ll be walking that line in a difficult setting, live TV, maybe a studio audience, every commentator in the country watching him, up against a seasoned debater and scrapper who we know will be throwing everything at it.
I’m not sure what to expect, I suspect Luxon’s been doing his homework and prepping for this as much as he can, but all the prep in the world can’t prepare you for what can go down on live TV or what a moderator may choose to pick up on. By contrast, Hipkins doesn’t go into this with underdog status, but the expectations from within his party for him to perform are immense... he is currently dead man walking. Tonight either flicks Hipkins to life in stupendous fashion and silences his internal party critics, or it’s the death knell for him.
High stakes for both. How many of us will actually be watching though?
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It will be Chris v Chris in the first leaders' debate tonight.
Labour's Chris Hipkins and National's Chris Luxon will face off on TVNZ.
The Labour leader says he hasn't spent a lot of time preparing, while Luxon says the country needs a great leader not a great debater.
But Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls told Mike Hosking that it will be important for those voters who haven't yet decided who they like.
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It's been rumoured in business circles that Luxon is scoping top Kiwi figures as part of his potential administration.
Fraser Whineray and Andrew Grant have reportedly been courted by National's leader ahead of the election.
NZME business commentator Fran O'Sullivan says the pair have declined so far, but Luxon has expressed interest in partnering with Whineray and Grant.
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Labour's finance spokesperson remains coy about the Government turning down a proposal to stop funding gangs.
Cabinet rejected a proposal in July by then-Justice Minister Kiri Allan banning anyone gang-affiliated from receiving public funding.
Grant Robertson says he doesn't recall getting involved with that discussion.
"Governments in the past have given a range of funding to agencies who work with those with drug addictions and so on- from time to time, those people have had links with gangs."
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Every Monday until the election, The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis.
This week, NZME Editor-at-Large Shayne Currie steps in for Barry Soper.
The panel discuss ACT’s campaign launch over the weekend and whether its focus on co-governance is a vote winner or loser.
They also chat about the hecklers and whether conspiracy theorists will continue to be a theme for the rest of the campaign.
Heather poses the question whether this is the most boring campaign since 2014 and whether the first Leaders debate will be worth a watch.
Plus, they take a closer look at Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown’s election manifesto and the Wellington Central race.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls talks us through Chris Hipkins visit to Tauranga today – and whether he’s mixing and mingling with the voters.
Political Reporter Sophie Trigger analyses Winston Peters’ latest public meeting in Paraparaumu.
Plus, she spoke to some of his supporters and got some interesting answers.
And Newstalk ZB’s Joey Dwyer discusses the latest fallout from Act’s campaign launch.
Plus, all your latest Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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What a funny old week it's been listening to the media and the Government howling for National's costings on their foreign house buyers tax and National's refusal to release them.
Personally I don't give a flying fig on the costings.
It seems perfectly obvious that National will not raise the money it says it will because that would take a record level of overseas sales.
And National doesn't care. The overseas buyers tax is a sideshow. They are committed to tax cuts. That's their thing. That's non negotiable. They will happen.
So if they can't subsidise the cuts with the new tax what could they do? Either borrow more or cut Government spending. Cutting services will make their coalition partner happier, so what do you think will happen?
The overseas buyers tax seems like a strange one for a so called right wing neo-liberal globalist party to propose. One that says it's committed to fighting inflation.
In essence it's a wealth tax. "You can afford a $2 million dollar house. Great we'll have another $300,000 bucks in tax thanks, you rich prick." I guess it's OK to tax the wealthy if they're foreign. That $300,000 is another incentive for foreign buyers to find places without the tax because they don't like tax either, so that's another blow to National's optimistic projections.
The opening of the market is another strange call in a time of inflation. It will mean more buyers and therefore higher prices which all contribute to inflation.
If the market picks up steam because of the foreign buyers, then the wealthy with property will have more capital to borrow against to spend on their next overseas trip or car or new kitchen. Again spurring on inflation.
Houses will get more expensive freezing out first home buyers. That's headline news and more inflation.
Meanwhile, National is squirting $2 billion into consumers back pockets, will also spur inflation.
In fact, when you look at National's suite of policies, they're all stimulatory, which is not the thing you do in a high inflation environment with historically high house prices. Margaret Thatcher would be having kittens. It's no wonder some true neo-liberals call National Labour-lite.
At the end of the day, I don't know why National is so wedded to the tax cuts other than they're an easy sell to house owners.
Why couldn't they just cut the wasteful spending and delay the tax bracket changes until we're better placed to wear them?
Cut all the wasteful spending and then spend the savings on stuff we really need. Like doctors, hospitals, water pipes, roads and public transport.
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Ōhāriu voters will soon get the chance to decide who represents them in the next Parliament.
Newstalk ZB's Wellington Mornings held a panel with candidates for the electorate seat.
Labour Greg O'Connor, National's Nicola Willis and TOP's Jessica Hammond shared what they thought were the main issues in the area.
They also debated how cost of living pressures can be alleviated, the Johnsonville Mall redevelopment and
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Politicians are in full-on campaign mode, trying to make it over the line in the Ohariu electorate.
The seat was held for years by Peter Dunne, the Labour MP turned United Future leader.
Labour's Greg O'Connor took the seat in 2017 after Dunne's resignation -- and has held it since.
Reporter Azaria Howell hit the streets of Johnsonville to find out if voters are going to back him a third time, and hear about the issues that people find important.
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David Seymour claims his welfare policy will help people help themselves.
Under Act's proposal, drug addicts could lose their benefit if they refuse treatment or don't make efforts to find a job.
It would also apply to people with mental health issues like stress who don't seek help.
Seymour told Kerre Woodham we need to ask tough questions about our system.
“Should Government policy assume that people are forever victims or should it be based on the idea that people can make a difference in their own lives?”
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Labour's made a suite of announcements targeting women.
The party's released its first women's manifesto promising improved endometriosis care and extended breast cancer screening.
It'd also introduce gender pay gap reporting and establish an innovation and entrepreneurship scholarship programme for low to middle-income women.
Employment lawyer Jennifer Mills told Kate Hawkesby New Zealand rates well on gender equality, but there is pay inequality.
“I’m not sure that frankly an entrepreneurial mentorship programme will go far in addressing the problem, but at least it’s a good start.”
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National is taking aim at the Government in what it claims is not putting victims at the heart of the criminal justice system.
Cabinet rejected a proposal in July by then Justice Minister Kiri Allan banning anyone gang-affiliated from receiving public funding.
National's Simeon Brown told Mike Hosking the country has a soft-on-crime Government that doesn't see crime for what it is.
He says much of it is being pushed into the community by gangs and they need to put an end to it.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says many of the funded programmes in question are making a difference.
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As policies fly about here and there in these last 4 weeks heading into the election, Labour's deputy prime minister and National's deputy leader will join once a week to gain insight into all things party-related.
National’s Nicola Willis joined Kate Hawkesby to discuss any fiscal plans, Act vowing to end co-governance and Labour supposedly turning down proposals to stop gang funding.
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Labour says raising the age limit for breast cancer screening is incredibly important.
The party's launched its "women's manifesto" – which includes improving endometriosis care.
It's also promising to extend the free breast cancer screening age to 74 a – National Party members bill promising that was drawn from the ballot box earlier this year.
Labour first promised the change in 2017.
Women's Issues spokesperson Jan Tinetti told Mike Hosking it should be celebrated, not challenged over when it should've happened.
“We know that we’ve got cross party support in this. We know that this has been a strong campaign from all sides of the House.”
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Labour's Cabinet turned down a proposal to stop funding gangs.
The National Party's revealed the then-Justice Minister Kiri Allan lodged the proposal to end contracts with gangs in July.
Cabinet didn't agree, which National says is another example of Labour being soft on crime.
National's spokesperson for Public Service, Simeon Brown, says it's a waste of taxpayer money.
"And what we see the Mongrel Mob doing is peddle meth and misery- they're not out there to try and help people become better and get off drugs. It's completely opposed to what they do."
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The ACT Party's campaign took an unexpected turn this afternoon, but leader David Seymour says it's good that his party is being noticed.
Four protesters managed to get past security and heckle Mr Seymour as he gave his speech.
He had to raise his voice several times to drown them out, saying the protesting was a sign his party is successful.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says other parties have had similar problems with hecklers.
"It just goes to show that the people that are disrupting these events have no interest in actually debating ideas- they just want the spotlight on them."
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Labour has released the first ever 'Women’s Manifesto', National still won't release the numbers on their tax policy, and this week brings the first of the leaders debates.
To give his astute insight, Jason Walls joins the Weekend Collective.
Later, National's Simeon Brown reveals that Chris Hipkins’ Cabinet considered whether to stop Government contracts involving funding for gangs in July and deliberately chose to keep doing so.
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This week on the Sunday Panel, editor and journalist Jo McCarroll and Freebairn and Hehir lawyers partner Liam Hehir joined in on a discussion about the following issues- and more!
Luxon’s still refusing to say whether he will or won’t work with Winston Peters – does he need to be upfront? Why doesn’t he say what he plans to do? Could NZ First drag National down?
What should we expect from Tuesday's televised debate? Can we expect hard-hitting questions about National's controversial tax plan?
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The divide between the right and the left continues to grow, as Labour keeps declining in the polls.
This week's major political polls have seen the current Government dip below 30 percent as National and ACT surge ahead as favourites for the election.
ZB political editor Jason Walls says it's unlikely the polls will change in Labour's favour this close to the election.
"I wouldn't imagine things to change too drastically, and I think that's going to be quite a problem for Chris Hipkins. He says they need to start campaigning better and they need to really turn things around- from what I've seen, his campaign has fallen flat."
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On Wednesday morning, after the PREFU release on the Tuesday afternoon, Finance Minister Grant Robertson joined Mike Hosking to talk about the books, the country’s future and his own performance.
As I listened to the conversation, I wondered, has Labour missed a trick here?
Now I know Grant Robertson did not want the job of Prime Minister. He could read the tea leaves and was perhaps also feeling the effects of almost 6 challenging years in power.
But if you listen to the Hosking interview - or the ASB Great Leaders debate, or various podcasts throughout the week - what becomes stark is how in situations when most politicians deflect or ignore a question, Robertson is very good at offering an answer and sounding genuine.
Aside from an uncharacteristic outburst on Heather du Plessis-Allan’s show recently, Robertson gets through his media appearances calmly. He appears to be himself, he speaks naturally and reasonably on topic, has a sense of humour and, if it’s an area he’s not familiar with he lets you know without trying to bluff or avoid the issue.
I can’t help wondering whether Robertson being in the hot seat rather than Hipkins would have Labourites feeling more confident about the election.
Obviously, being able to handle media interviews doesn’t necessarily make you a great Prime Minister, but it is a large part of the job – being able to deliver a message with confidence and trustworthiness.
But Robertson isn’t in charge, and who knows whether the polls would be different if he was. But there’s no doubt - as the Labour party poll drops into the twenties and Luxon and Hipkins are level-ish in the preferred Prime Minister stakes - that some will be wondering ‘what if?’
So that leaves Chippy who, to be fair, is working hard to prove he’s not only In It For Us, but has it covered. The first big test comes on Tuesday in the first televised Leaders Debate. Just under 1.2 million people watched last election, and we knew the characters involved pretty well.
This time we have the veteran and the underdog, as Luxon has cleverly pitched himself. The pressure is on both to perform. One is being judged on his history and the other on his potential, but they’re trying to prove the same thing – their credibility.
I can’t wait – bring it on!
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Labour's reaching out to workers this weekend on the campaign trail.
Leader Chris Hipkins pledged to increase the minimum wage annually, improve the pay of educators and healthcare workers, and put an end to lower-paid training and youth wages.
Labour's workplace relations and safety spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says the party intends to lift wages and allow people to keep up with the cost of living.
"It's important that we don't allow inflation to go beyond wages, we need people to keep up with the cost of living. It's good for workers, and it's good for the economy."
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With tax changes and policy changes promised by differing parties – where should the election feature in your financial plan?
Plenty of people have spent the past year holding off on financial decisions, on the expectation that a change in Government would have a material impact on their wealth creation plans – but is that a sound strategy, or a risky one?
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls fills us in on Chris Hipkins more traditional day on the campaign trail.
Plus, he analyses the Labour Leader’s continued attacks against National.
Political reporter Sophie Trigger discusses National’s plan for the tech sector and talks Nicola Willis’ bold promise this morning.
Plus, all your latest Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date
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National’s tax plan debacle is looking more and more like an episode of Grand Designs.
A wide-eyed optimistic couple with a big dream. They reckon they’ve done the numbers and can definitely make it work. But, as time goes on, some people start raising their eyebrows and asking a few questions and the shiny happy people start getting all defensive on it.
But then, as we all know, most times we find out that people were right to be raising their eyebrows and the numbers never stack up.
Another situation you could compare National’s tax plan debacle to is when, again, a wide-eyed optimistic couple with a big dream, fall in love with a half-renovated villa and convince themselves that even though the people selling it have run out of puff, they can turn things around and get the renovation back on track.
And again, like the Grand Designs situation, when they start telling other people about their big vision and every Tom, Dick and Harry starts chiming in with their opinion, the wide-eyed couple start to feel under attack because people start telling them what they don’t want to hear. Or people start asking tricky questions.
People want to know how much they reckon it’s going to cost to finish the renovation. They get people pulling holes in their estimates or telling them that, instead of taking on a half-finished villa, they should be doing something less risky and looking for a sensible brick and tile with aluminium joinery.
And, again, like on Grand Designs, the wide-eyed couple get sick and tired of people poo-pooing their ideas and they get all defensive and they just don’t want to talk about it anymore. Even when they know, in their heart of hearts, that a big part of what they want to do is all wing-on-a-prayer, hoping for the best, it’ll all come out in the wash.
Because where there’s a will, there’s a way! Right?
Well, that approach might be fine for renovating a house. It’s a completely different story, though, when it comes to renovating an economy.
And so, yesterday, we had three economists from across the political divide coming out with their analysis of National’s tax plan. And they reckon National could be over-cooking the numbers to the tune of nearly $500 million per year.
They are former economist Sam Warburton, former Reserve Bank head of financial markets Michael Reddell and Corelogic head of research Nick Goodall.
And what they’ve done, is they’ve spent hours over the past couple of weeks doing some modelling work on National’s plan to tax foreigners buying property here. Which is one way National plans to fund its tax changes.
These three economists have looked at three different scenarios and reckon this part of National’s plan would be more likely to bring in between $212 million and $286 million per year. A lot less than the $700 million National is saying that it’s going to raise.
So these experts are saying the gap between National’s numbers and their numbers is between $450 million and $520 million a year. Or around $2 billion over the next four years.
But National's Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis aren't budging and say they've released all the detail we need to see and we just need to trust them to deliver.
Now I’ve doubted National’s numbers on the foreign house buyer thing right from the start. And the numbers that came out yesterday back me up on that.
I also think National is overcooking the numbers when it comes to the money it thinks it’s going to save on public sector spending.
That’s because when Christopher Luxon was here the other week, he couldn’t tell me when current contracts end for all the consultants and contractors he wants to get rid of. If he doesn’t know that, then he has no idea when he can achieve those savings.
And then we had Nicola Willis making the big claim this week that she reckons the public service cuts can be made by Christmas. Which means it won’t be the consultants that get the chop first. It’ll be public service staff who go.
The thing is, though - and I didn’t always think this would be the case - but I think they’re going to get away with this smoke and mirrors behaviour because there seem to be enough people out there who seem to think a change of government is more important than facts.
And it’s not even people thinking about their own wallets. It’s people so obsessed about getting rid of Labour. And the tragedy of all that, is that they even seem to be willing to turn a blind eye to National’s smoke and mirrors, if it means getting rid of this current government on October 14.
I’m just as tired of the current Labour government as the next person. But where we differ, is that I’m not going to fall for the wing-and-a-prayer promises from National, if it’s not going to front up with the facts.
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Broadcaster Mark Sainsbury and former Wellington Mayor Justin Lester join Nick Mills on Friday Faceoff.
This week they discuss the current polls ahead of the 2023 election, National refusing to release its tax plan numbers, city councillor Diane Calvert drawing attention to the council's books, and how Cuba Street can be improved.
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Week two of the campaign has come and gone - so who are the winners?
Well, if you go on polling alone, it's the new Government of National and Act.
But if you believe that this campaign counts, if you believe that these events and stunts and announcements count for a lot, then there is still much to play for.
For the record, I will repeat, I think the whole thing is a foregone conclusion.
This, more than most elections, has already been decided on the Government's record. It's not about policy from the opposition, because most people already broadly know that the opposition is offering a change from the status quo.
It's what happened when we tossed David Lange's Labour out.
What happened when we tossed Robert Muldoon? What happened when we tossed Helen Clark out?
For a variety of reasons, in Muldoon and Clark's case, we were over the agenda. In Lange's case, we were over the party imploding and the chaos.
That’s why they say Government's lose elections and oppositions don’t win them.
If you're interested in policy there have been some good ones. Act's law and order policy is full of common sense and scratches an itch felt by many a New Zealander fed up with crime.
You can't argue with more doctors, except the fact Labour took six years to do it, which in and of itself is an example of why they are losing.
National's literacy policy last Friday makes sense and many a parent will welcome a crack at tangible improvement in the classroom.
But the downside of campaigns is the down in the weeds obsession you tend to get when the media put a lot of resource into a single event. When you're looking to eke every last dollar out of having journalists wander aimlessly around the country, you tend to end up with the nonsense we got on National's tax policy.
Some economists thought there was a hole. My take - so what? There are other economists who don't think there is a hole.
The Treasury PREFU said we aren't going into recession and the media swallowed that hook, line and sinker. Yet Bryce Wilkinson of the NZ Initiative wrote yesterday and said those numbers are bogus. Where was the media's obsession around that?
Duelling economists is the sort of side show a campaign brings.
But in summation, you can see poor, old Hipkins looking more and more deflated and Luxon looking more and more bullish. Seymour overplayed his hand a bit on the confidence thing, James Shaw called an Act MP a "clown show", Winston Peters refuted the polls, again, and I think one of the Maori leaders went surfing.
Next week we have the debates. I don’t put the weight some do on them. They're important, yes. But they aren't a deal breaker.
As I say, my gut says this thing is over, the script was written over the past 24 months.
We are, to a degree, going through the motions.
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Willis said National is offering tax reductions to working Kiwis, and Labour is "obsessed" with finding holes in their tax policy.
"We've gone above and beyond," Willis said of the party's budget.
Willis told Mike Hosking that she would not release the costings of the budget because the next step would be "releasing Excel sheets."
"We've chosen more conservative numbers."
"I'm confident people will see we've been thorough here and we've been careful."
"Ultimately what New Zealander's need right now is more money in their bank accounts."
Willis said Labour "spray the money hose around" while National had a "proven track record."
"We will be spending less than Labour," Willis said.
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The horticulture industry is welcoming a new policy on water storage with open arms.
National's promising that farmers will not need a resource consent to build a water storage pond in most cases unless wetlands or Significant Natural Areas are affected.
It's a plan they say cuts red tape around food production.
Horticulture New Zealand Policy Manager Michelle Sands says it's a positive policy.
She told Mike Hosking that most growers are conscious of managing their environmental effects, but there are rules being developed that create costs for them without achieving any benefits.
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Labour's promising a justice system shake-up, with the party saying it'll streamline the process for people to take legal action.
The party claims it'll be a more cost-effective way for groups of people to take legal action together by establishing a class actions regime.
Labour's Justice spokesperson Ginny Andersen told Mike Hosking that this has worked overseas.
She says for example, it's good for small investors who get "done over" by a big company.
It also wants to investigate the threshold for jury trials and increase the uptake of audio-visual technology in courts, to try to speed up hearings.
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It’s funny as we get to the sharp end of the election campaign, what exercises people and what doesn’t.
The media are exercised by the Nats tax cut plan. They’re exercised by it largely I assume because the Labour party are exercised about it. And the Labour party are exercised about it because they hate it because it’s popular. It’s seen poll surges for National, and they’ll do anything to try to stem that tide.
Problem is, as the feedback I’ve received this week would attest, and as the polls would suggest too, it is popular. And people seemingly do not care how it’s costed, or what a handful of economists say about it, or how much Grant Robertson bangs on about it being flawed.
The reality is, this government can’t really talk smack about costings to anyone given the state they’re leaving the economy in. They can’t really talk costings when they’re the government who oversaw wasteful spending like we’ve never seen, money poured into mad ideology that went nowhere like bike bridges and light rail, and a general mismanagement of our economy including bloating the public service and taking away targets for anything.
So in a nutshell – bit rich from a government who didn’t even hold themselves accountable on anything, to now throw stones at the opposition. It’s not credible, the criticism is falling on deaf ears. Unless you’re the media of course, who love it and will run with anything this deep in the weeds if the Labour party tells them to.
My point is – it’s of no interest to the average voter. People are looking at the mood, the state of their bank accounts, the state of their mortgages, the state of the country in general, and they’re saying, no thanks. Time for change.
Now, whether they think that change is ACT or the Nats or Winston or any of the other minor parties, that’s an MMP roller-coaster we’ll probably be on for the next few weeks. But the upshot is, it ain’t Labour. So no amount of haranguing Luxon and co over tax cut costings is going to move the needle in my opinion. Too much is going in the wrong direction to turn the truck around now.
I guess attacking all the Nats policies is all they’ve got though – because Labour releasing policy now just looks kind of desperate. Suddenly they’re waking up to a whole bunch of stuff they had six whole years to fix. Suddenly they’re realising we need more doctors, we need better qualified teachers, we need better healthcare, we need more Police, they’re suddenly coming up with policy promises around all these things. It’s just too little too late.
All that time spent naval gazing about how low speed limits should be and how many judder bars to put in, all that time spent wondering how to go easier on criminals, facilitate gang convoys, where to put up more Maori signs, all that time on stuff that in the end got us nowhere and just infuriated everyone. It didn’t advance us economically, or productively, or in terms of our enthusiasm and motivation, it just saw our best and brightest wave ta-ta.
So as frustrating as it must be for Labour and for the media, who are so determined to run the ‘we want costings!’ rhetoric —which by the way they pick and choose when they ask for it, think of all the stuff they’ve not asked for costings on— but as determined as they are about hammering this one, the reality, as the polls suggest, is that voters just don’t care.
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Tonight on The Huddle, former Labour Chief of Staff and current director at Mike Munro communications, Mike Munro, and ZB's Nick Mills joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Multiple economists have teamed up to scrutinise aspects of National's tax plan and it's been made clear the numbers don't add up. Will voters care? Will National have to find ways to cut more spending?
Restore Passenger Rail protestors spray-painted Wellington's Gazley Motor Group building on Cambridge Terrace earlier today. The trio behind the vandalism have since been arrested. Is this getting out of hand?
An Australian property developer has copped backlash after calling for more unemployment to remind workers of their value. Is this a fair statement? Should employees be more grateful to have jobs?
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Ministers from several major parties are expected to go head to head at tonight's Rural Issues Debate at Mystery Creek.
Damien O’Connor (Labour), Eugenie Sage (Green Party), Todd McClay (National), Andrew Hoggard (Act), and Mark Patterson (New Zealand First) will discuss the issues impacting the region's rural community.
The Country's Jamie Mackay explains what can be expected.
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Three economists have teamed up to scrutinise part of National's tax plan.
The party's proposed ending the ban on foreign buyers - for homes worth more than $2 million- and taxing them 15 percent.
It expects foreigners will buy 1700 houses valued on average at around $2.9 million.
But economist Michael Reddell says it'll be more like 700 in that price range.
"That $2 million threshold really does matter, because average house prices - even in Auckland - are well below $2 million. And there just aren't that many really expensive houses in New Zealand."
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Winston Peters won't close the door on sitting with ACT leader David Seymour around the Cabinet table.
Depending where the chips fall at next month's election - both parties could be in the Beehive as part of a National-led government.
But Peters and Seymour don't see eye to eye, with the latter categorically ruling out working with New Zealand First.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says Winston Peters is insistent on both parties putting their differences aside to solve the economic and social issues in this country.
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The country's three biggest education unions have joined forces to put education funding on the political agenda this election campaign.
A new BERL report has found public spending per student in 2019 was nearly 25 percent lower than the OECD average.
Tertiary Education Union National President Julie Douglas says more investment would allow better decisions about the sort of system we want.
"I think that we would make sure that the programs are secure and staff are secure, so we can be delivering to a wide range of passions of students."
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This week on Behind the List, Newstalk ZB's Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper dives into one of politics' most tense relationships.
He speaks to both Winston Peters and David Seymour - and finds out why they won't work together.
Plus, the pair send a message to each other through the podcast.
The seasoned political analyst then casts his eye over this week's political polls which have been bad news for Labour.
Plus he discusses Act's threat to enter a confidence-only deal with National.
And, of course, he talks the political implications of the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (Prefu).
Behind the List with Barry Soper is a weekly interview-based podcast that will get you behind the newsmakers of Election 2023.
Soper will use his years covering politics to give you the cutting-edge analysis only a commentator with his expertise can.
This podcast is your guide to cut through the headlines, giving you fresh insight into the week that was on the campaign.
Behind the List with Barry Soper, every Thursday afternoon on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB.
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls talks the latest pushback to National’s tax plan from three independent economists.
And Christchurch reporter Pierre Nixon reviews both Chris Hipkins’ and Christopher Luxon’s visits to the South Island.
Plus, all your latest Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on I-Heart Radio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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ACT leader David Seymour wasn’t eating pies on TV last night like the other party leaders. But he was spitting tacks about dangerous criminals not being locked-up in prison.
He was out promoting his party’s law and order policy and, if I was to sum up the message he was trying to get across, it would be this: “More people should be in prison”.
Now I don’t necessarily agree that there should be more people behind bars. But we sure as hell need to get things in order and make sure the people who should be locked up are locked up.
So the policy ACT is pushing has a few elements to it. As well as spending $1 billion on 500 more prison beds, Seymour’s crew want to make sure that the justice system focuses more on the victims of crime, and less on the criminals themselves.
And they’ll get no argument from me on that front. A brilliant part of ACT’s policy is this idea of the Crown stepping-in if crims are slow or fail to make reparation payments to their victims.
Because, let’s face it, whenever you see a report in the media saying a judge has ordered someone to pay reparation, you do wonder to yourself how likely it is that that’s actually going to happen.
I do. And, obviously if ACT has come up with this idea as part of its law and order policy, then I must be on the money and there must be a truckload of victims not getting the reparation they deserve when they should be getting it or if at all.
So, yes, this would mean the taxpayer jumping-in and coming to the rescue when crims fail to do what they’re ordered to do by the courts. But why should the victims of crime suffer any more than they have already? It’s a great idea.
As for the ‘more people behind bars’ thing that ACT is pushing. I think we could be a bit smarter on this.
What I would do, is make prison automatic for anyone who behaves violently towards people or property.
Because if someone was to ask you whether you feel safe or not, I bet it would come down to your sense of physical safety.
Scammers, for example. They can be devastating for people who fall for their text messages or emails or automated phone calls saying “hey, it’s your bank here” or “hey, it’s your power company here”.
But what they do doesn’t threaten our physical safety.
Just like any fraudster, really. They are a threat to our financial security but not our physical security.
So, instead of just going holus-bolus and spending $1 billion on 500 more prison beds, wouldn’t it be better to have some very clear non-negotiables when it comes to who actually belongs behind bars?
And, for me, that would be anyone who is violent towards people and property. So your ram-raiders, people involved in family harm crimes, any form of sexual crime, bank robbers, service station robbers, carjackers, home invaders…all of them. I’m in no doubt that anyone involved in those sorts of crimes don’t belong in society.
Which may very well mean we still need more prison beds, as ACT is pushing for. But maybe we wouldn’t.
Because, what if we decided that anyone who commits a crime that doesn’t threaten our physical safety were the ones who got to wear the ankle bracelet and serve their time on the couch at home?
Who would they be? Well, I suppose if we were to give them a label, it would be white-collar criminals.
The people who come up with elaborate scams to rip-off their employers. Or the ones who rip off government departments for things like COVID support of welfare payments.
It seems nuts, doesn’t it, that if we’re running out of room at our prisons, these people are taking up space and other, more dangerous people, are out on home detention.
One example - the guy who did the shootings on the building site in Auckland recently. He was on home detention after violently assaulting his partner. Under my approach, he wouldn’t have been on Home D, he would’ve been in prison. Because what he did was act violently towards a person.
So that’s where I’d start. Making sure that the criminals who are a threat to our personal safety, are taken out of circulation. And only having home detention an option for the crims who aren’t a threat to our physical safety.
Maybe then, we might not need 500 more prison beds.
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Like so many of these things, a day or so after the big event is when you really get a measure of what is true and what is BS, or spin.
The PREFU was bad news.
The upside of the bad news was the Government argued and, sadly, the too many of the media, who either don’t have time to digest the real numbers, don’t care to digest the real numbers, or don’t know how to digest the real numbers, swallowed the line that there was "light at the end of the tunnel".
The light at the end of the tunnel came from a journalist in the gallery who are now famous for asking patsy questions. "Is there light at the end of the tunnel?" What do you think Grant Robertson was supposed to say to that?
A couple of the banks have put some perspective on where we are really at. These are real numbers and they involve debt.
Debt, as I keep trying to argue, is the thing that will sink us.
Debt is easy to get into, it's easy to get even deeper into, and then once you’ve been sucked into that it's a nightmare to get out of.
What we know from PREFU is the annual surplus, that's the yearly balance of whether you spent more than you earned, has been pushed out yet again. We can't even balance the books and annually haven't for years.
Then you get to what we already owe and what that costs to service. The updated figure was close to $10billion a year and that’s only the interest.
Now, the banks have put a number on what we will need to borrow going forward, what we need to go to the market for to cover the obligations the Government has made.
$1billion is what we will be borrowing. $940million to be exact.
Per week.
Let that sink in. Virtually one billion dollars a week of borrowings. Not earnings, not profit. More debt.
And you wonder why the bill to service that goes to almost $10billion a year. As the banks say, that is a lot for the market to absorb.
Here's a question; what if the market can't, or won't, absorb it?
The answer is we go to people who will give us the money. But what happens then is we pay a premium and the $10billion servicing bill climbs higher.
It can't be any more black and white than this. Look at what we spend on defence, or police. That's pocket change compared to what we borrow and that is why things are as bad as they are.
Numbers don't lie.
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Now the National Party announced some weeks ago that should it become Government, a new medical school will be established at Waikato University. They've also said they'd add another 50 placements in Otago and Auckland from 2025.
Now Labour, in the midst of an unprecedented senior specialist strike, has woken up to the fact that we're short of doctors. Who knew? And has announced an extra 95 doctors will be accepted for training at Otago and Auckland in 2025 should they become Government.
Cool, say the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists, any boost to student numbers is great, but it would be 10 to 15 years before any of them qualified as consultants. They say they need 1700 specialist doctors and dentists right now.
So why over the past six years was this government faffing around with bike bridges to the North Shore, lowering speed limits around the city, renaming Government departments, trying to get RNZ and TVNZ merged —all the frilly stuff— without addressing a very real concern, a very real need, something that impacts on all of us to augment our health services? Why have they waited till their second election campaign, (really third), to say hey, you know what? We don't have enough doctors.
At any time during our lockdown when the borders were closed, when the Government was banging on about the need to train up our own professionals and tradies, about the fact that New Zealanders needed to do the jobs, we couldn't afford to rely on importing the people we needed to do essential jobs, at any time they could have ticked the box and said train more doctors.
And they didn't. And they haven't, until yesterday.
Chris Hipkins said an extra 335 more doctors per year by 2027 would cost $1 billion over 10 years. The Labour Government has thrown away $29.2 billion on light rail in Auckland. How many doctors would $29.2 billion give us? Doctors, dentists and nurses? It incenses me.
Along comes a pre-election whiz bang press release announcing an extra 95 doctors will be accepted for training from 2025. Speaking at Otago University yesterday, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said New Zealand really needs to ramp up its efforts if we're going to train the workforce we need here in New Zealand.
Well, yes, yes, it does! And with a stroke of a pen you could have done that. And we needed to do that five years ago, not right now. We needed to do that when you closed the borders, not right now when you're desperate to win an election. We could have had the first tranche of new doctors coming out now if you'd decided the healthcare sector was worth investing in.
So a new med school and increased placements under National or keep just the two training universities and up the placements. What would be best for the country as far as you're concerned? The acting Dean of Otago, Tim Wilkinson, says there is no shortage of people who would make excellent doctors, they just haven't had enough places for all of them. So now there are will you reapply? What do you do if you don't make it into Med school? It's a very niche area of study. You're obviously a high performance machine. What do you do next? Many wannabe doctors go to Australia and they are very, very hard to get back. It would be great to keep more of our own people here.
How the hell has Labour just woken up to the fact that we need to train more doctors. Would they not have looked at that when the borders were closed? No, just when their polls are plummeting. Unbelievable. The money that has been spent on nonsense when it could have been spent on New Zealanders working within the New Zealand health system. Staggering. Every day, every day, I'm freshly staggered.
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The divide between the right and left continues to grow heading into the election.
The latest 1 News Verian poll shows Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins are neck-and-neck in the preferred prime minister rankings: both on 23%.
But the right bloc is on 49%, well ahead of the left bloc on 41%.
Put to him that they had "less than no money" to run a country, Luxon said: "Yep. We're going to have a really tough and difficult country. But National governments always have to come in and clean up a mess left behind by Labour. We'll have to do the same, I think, here again."
He told Mike Hosking that the country can’t afford another term of a Labour-led government.
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A medical school leader says they've been waiting to be allowed to train more doctors.
If elected, Labour's promised to train an additional 335 doctors every year from 2027, with numbers increasing from next year.
National previously announced a new medical school at Waikato University, which would provide 220 extra places by 2030.
Otago University Acting Dean of Medicine, Tim Wilkinson, told Mike Hosking that they're not able to train more than the Government allows.
He says there's plenty of people who want to be doctors, most would be good doctors, but they haven't been able to train more until now.
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A retired judge believes the public shouldn't be driving policy when it comes to law and order.
Party leader David Seymour wants to boost prison capacity by 500 beds and toughen sentencing for offending against vulnerable workers.
Act also wants new youth justice beds under Corrections and ankle bracelets on youth offenders.
Rosemary Riddell told Mike Hosking that what we need is prisons with serious rehabilitation.
She understands dairy owners want to see tough punishments but if policy is driven by public outcry, we'll get it all wrong.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Jordan Williams from the Taxpayers' Union and Jack Tame from ZB's Saturday Mornings and Q&A weighed in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Yesterday's PREFU was eye-opening, and it raised the questions: Should National revise their plan for tax cuts? Can we actually afford them?
US News' Best Countries list has concluded New Zealand has amazing scenery and friendly people- but the nation isn't sexy. What do we think of this?
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Did I have a debate on my hands when I got home last night about the country’s debt levels.
The husband gave me a huge telling off for saying yesterday that the Government had taken on too much debt.
So I feel like I need to clear this up:
I don’t mind the level of debt New Zealand has. We've heard this a thousand times, but it’s worth saying again- we have very little debt in contrast to other countries in the OECD.
Actually, debt is good. If you borrow money to invest in things which make your country richer, like building roads for productivity or new schools for education, it’s a good thing.
Case in point- how else did you buy your house if not with a mortgage, AKA, debt?
And same with infrastructure- if you need to take on debt to build roads and schools in New Zealand, that’s fine, it’s actually a smart way to spread the cost over generations.
My problem is what we did with that debt. What have we got to show for it? Absolutely nothing.
In 2019, we had the tiniest, tiniest amount of debt. $5 billion in debt, that’s nothing.
By the time all of Grant’s promises have rinsed out our books in 2027, we will have $102 billion in debt. And what we have got to show for it?
Grant keeps saying- oh, we needed to support businesses and people through the pandemic.
Absolutely, he’s right. I will never begrudge smart spending that helped Kiwis out when they needed it.
But by far and away, the biggest cost was the wage subsidy. That cost us $19 billion. But what about the rest of it? That leaves $78 billion spent on - what? Nurses’ pay can’t account for all of it.
The truth is - and we know it - the pandemic gave Labour permission to spend. Some of the spending was fine, but then they didn't stop spending. And they blew a lot of our money on rubbish.
$1 billion for the Greens Jobs for Nature scheme.
$3 billion for NZ First.
$50 million on consultants for the bike bridge that never got built.
$33 million to buy the Bacon building in Kingsland for Auckland Light Rail, even though it’s going to get cancelled.
I could go on, but you get the picture. Debt, not bad. This debt, what a waste.
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Another slide for Labour in tonight's One News-Verian poll, with the National Party up two points to 39 percent, and Labour down one to 28.
The Greens and ACT are both down, on 10 percent.
Winston Peters' New Zealand First is back in the game, up one to poll 5 percent.
The Battle of the Chrises is neck and neck with both on 23 percent as preferred Prime Minister- Hipkins is up 2 percent, and Luxon up 3.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says Labour's fighting a losing battle as National retains their strong lead.
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Labour says the pandemic showed a need for more local healthcare worker training.
The party's announced it'll train another 335 doctors every year from 2027- and increase medical school places from next year.
Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says they've already increased the workforce by 2,000 people.
"So I think the National Party's attack line - that this should've happened earlier - is negated by the fact that we already grew our workforce. We're now choosing a different way."
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ACT thinks more people should be in jail.
The party's law and order policy would invest $1 billion into 500 more prison beds, and toughen sentences for offending against vulnerable workers.
Leader David Seymour says the Government has tried letting criminals out of prison.
He says a Ministry of Justice survey shows the result.
"Victimisations are up by about 30 percent in 5 years, but the human price of that is that people feel it's not safe to run a dairy- and for some people, it's been absolutely tragic."
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Labour's pledging to lift medical school places by 95 a year from 2025, in New Zealand's largest boost ever.
Chris Hipkins says if re-elected, they'll lift training 62 percent over the coming decade.
Labour's extra places amount to 874 doctors trained each year by 2027- beating out National's promised 759 by 2030.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says this scheme is the latest strategy Labour's borrowed from National, following on from their roading outline and pledge cards.
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Questions over divisions within New Zealand.
An Essential Research poll shows 77 percent of Kiwis believe the country is either a little more - or much more - divided, depending on their political stance.
Labour and Green voters think there's less division, and National and ACT supporters say we are more so.
Those aged 55-plus are the most concerned.
Victoria University's Max Rashbrooke says he's unsure he agrees.
He says the poll doesn't clarify what people mean by division.
"But particularly with older people- they may just be expressing concern about the pace of change, about social change, about things they find destabilising."
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Reporter Sophie Trigger tells us the reaction to Christopher Luxon’s walkabout around Auckland and breaks down Act’s suite of law-and-order policies.
And Chief Political Correspondent Aaron Dahmen tells us about Chris Hipkins’ visit to Dunedin and how he dipped his toe into the student lifestyle.
Plus, all your Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on I-Heart Radio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Polls are coming in thick and fast as we head towards October 14th.
The latest is the New Zealand Herald's Poll of Polls, which combines results from a range of pollsters, specifically Curia, Kantar Public, Talbot Mills, and Reid Research.
According to the Poll of Polls, National and ACT’s chances continue to soar.
They have a 95.1% chance of forming a government if the election were held this weekend, and an 87% chance of forming a government for the actual election date.
Research Association's Polling spokesperson Murray Campbell told Kerre Woodham that the accuracy of polls, when measured against the election results, is still in pretty good stead.
He said that discrepancies in the last election can be attributed to polling companies not factoring in early voting.
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So was this PREFU better than expected as a number of headlines suggested?
Answer: possibly. Possibly not.
What numbers were they looking at?
It's important to point out this is not retrospective. This is not stuff that has happened, therefore cannot be argued with.
This is a projection and the projection comes from Treasury. There are some numbers from their projections to ponder, such as we are not returning to surplus until 2026/27. That is now years after they first suggested they would.
That's strike one.
Strike two is tax revenue is dropping in terms of what they thought it would be.
Strike three is expenses are rising from what they originally thought.
Strike four is debt per GDP is worse.
Strike five is net Government bond issue, which is debt, to 2027 is worse.
Strike six is inflation is higher for longer.
So where is all this good news? Well, they see a little bit more growth.
Unemployment, although going up, isn't going to go up as much as they thought.
And that is about it.
In totality I am not seeing a net score card that is demonstrably better than they thought. When you look at the numbers, at the debt, the spend and the current account deficit, none of it is good at all.
The tired, old line the Government uses about us being not as badly off as others is technically true.
But given there are almost 200 countries in the world, it's not hard to line yourself up against a bunch of economic numpties. It is not aspirational in any way, shape or form to find a collection of failures and pump your tyres up by standing next to them.
The simple reality is there is no hiding from the real danger this economy is in. It is one of the few, among our trading partners with Germany being the other, that has reached recession.
We have spent more, we have borrowed more and we are still nowhere near close to even looking like achieving an annualised surplus.
Our saving grace might, might, be migration and that might lead to a boost in housing and alleviate the labour shortage.
But I think what has happened here is we are so punch drunk, so beaten down by the misery of the economic mess that anything, no matter how meagre, is grasped as some sort of shiny nugget in a desert of economic sand.
When you see where we were, i.e the rock star economy a handful of years ago, and where we are now there is little, if anything, to be proud of.
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MPs Megan Woods and Mark Mitchell joined the Mike Hosking Breakfast to wrap the week's political news.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and current affairs commentator Josie Pagani joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
This year's deficit is expected to be $10 billion, next year's expected to go up to $11.4 billion - Treasury reckons we've come out of recession but the next Government will have a tough battle on its hands to pay down debt and return to a surplus. Is this a nail in the coffin for Labour or is there an inkling of good news in there that's enough to calm some nerves?
Is it game over for Labour? Last night's Newshub-Reid Research poll had Labour down to 26.8 percent support, while National is up to 40.9 percent. Will the gap only get bigger?
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National's Chris Luxon has been quick to slam Labour's 'economic mismanagement' after the PREFU revealed Government debt has blown out further.
Treasury's latest update is forecasting no recession, but shows the Government will be in deficit longer than expected and take on billions more debt.
Luxon says Kiwis are worried about losing their homes and taking on second jobs as the Government continues to spend.
"What's obvious is that Hipkins and Robertson have no idea how to run the economy, they're running it into the ground. And that's just saddling up a bad set of circumstances for future generations of Kiwis, and that's not on."
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The Finance Minister is standing by the Government's record, after Treasury today laid the books bare.
The Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update suggest our recession's likely over, but shows the Government deficit will continue longer than predicted in the Budget.
Debt's now expected to peak at 22.8 percent of GDP by 2025.
Grant Robertson says our Government borrowing wasn't for nothing.
"Lots of New Zealanders alive today who wouldn't have been during Covid, businesses that have been able to survive- yes, we had to borrow significant amounts of money to get through Covid. Most political parties supported us doing that."
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National's promising to spend our money on the right things, if elected next month.
Treasury's today revealed the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update.
It suggests our recession's likely over - but shows the Government will be in deficit for longer, and take on billions more in debt.
Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says the Opposition's now crunching its numbers.
"What National's now got to do is sit down and look at the meaning of these figures that have been presented today. And they'll come up with their fiscal strategy within the next few weeks, so it'll be interesting to see what they make out of it."
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In today’s Election Fix, Political Editor Jason Walls combs through the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update – and gives us the Prime Minister’s reaction.
And Chief Political Correspondent Aaron Dahmen has National’s reaction to the PREFU – and also gives us an insight into all the snacks Christopher Luxon is getting on the campaign trail!
Plus, all your Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on I-Heart Radio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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Well, good news last night for National.
Labour must be left wondering how many more election bribes they'll have to offer before voters begin to nibble. The latest Newshub Reid Research Poll that came out last night has seen National shoot up 4.3 points to 40.9%, and Labour suffered a 5.5% fall from the last Newshub poll, they're on just 26.8%.
But before gleeful right and centre right voters pull the cork on the St Emilion premier cru that you have cellared for the day those bloody socialists are booted out of office, just remember it is only a poll. And as Jim Bolger once famously said, buggar the polls.
As we've seen around the world, the pollsters were way off when it came to predicting the results of Brexit, the Trump Clinton presidential campaign, and the 2019 Australian election. And as an article in The Conversation shows, in this country in 2020, the polls immediately prior to the election overestimated the National vote and underestimated Labour’s.
They took the average of the results of all six polls published during the month before Election Day in 2020. National came out on 30.9%, Labour on 47.2%. But predictions based on the opinion polls were wrong. Labour's election result was 50%, National was not 30.9% they were only 25.6%. So the polls in the final fortnight were overestimating National by an average of 5.8 percentage points and underestimating Labour by 3.7. Lots of numbers, but basically, beware the polls.
Apparently we, as in Kiwis, used to be relatively forthright when it came to answering questions delivered by pollsters. We'd happily pin our colours to the mast and let complete strangers know our political preference. Not anymore.
Social media has fragmented opinion and challenged what truth is like nothing else, according to Murray Campbell, the New Zealand Research Associations Polling Spokesman. People are also careful about protecting their privacy. They're less willing to share their political viewpoints when contacted by total.
Add to that the difficulties of reaching people when landlines have all but disappeared. And door knocking isn't really an option because of the growing number of people living in apartment buildings or when homes are heavily protected by security.
So do the polls count for anything?
Well, they must do, and they must re-energize the party faithful if you're National or dampen and quash the spirits of those who are working for Labour. Certainly, in my electorate in Northcote, the party faithful for National have been out in full force. All blue jacketed, waving their signs, waving gleefully at the Onewa turnoff onto the motorway, happy as clams. Haven't seen a single person in a red shirt.
So it certainly gives a fillip to exhausted campaigners when you see a boost in the polls. But does it mean that Christopher Luxon will be thinking well, that's that then. Time to ease back, jobs done? He will not. The show is not over until the votes are counted. Election Day is the only poll that matters.
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It was a beautiful sunny morning. But, even though it looked warm, it was still pretty chilly.
And when Chris Hipkins looked out the window at his Christchurch hotel this morning he would’ve thought the same. That it looked like a beautiful spring day. But, as soon as he walked outside, he would’ve realised that it wasn’t and there was still a chill in the air.
Except for him, it wouldn't have been just the fresh air sending a shiver up the spine. He’s also had the fright of his political life with that disastrous poll result that came out last night.
He’s putting on the happy face. But no one can deny - based on last night’s Newshub poll - that Labour is in freefall.
That the bread and butter is looking more like toast and butter.
Labour is down to 26.8%. National is up at 40.9%. And on the preferred Prime Minister front, Hipkins is now level-pegging with Christopher Luxon.
In the last few weeks, it was that preferred Prime Minister ranking that had given Hipkins a bit of an edge over Luxon. A bit of an edge. Not anymore, though.
The question in my mind about this latest poll result, is how much it reflects genuine anger with Labour’s leadership over the past few years versus people just being sick of the sight of Labour.
I’m not angry with them. But I’m certainly bored of them. Which is probably how it was always going to be considering how much they were in our face day-in, day-out during COVID.
And Labour itself looks bored too. Chris Hipkins and his ministers look tired, worn-out and over it. They look like a third-term government. Not a second-term government. And they don’t just look tired and over it. They come across as arrogant, as well.
Arrogance. That’s why Chris Hipkins has been let down time-and-time again this year by his ministers. Arrogance. That’s why, when he was on Newstalk ZB this morning, he didn’t know anything about his Northcote MP Shanan Halbert being in hot water over his election fliers.
When he was asked, Hipkins said he knew nothing about it. And when I heard him say that, I thought that’s what arrogance sounds like. That’s what someone who is being failed by his team time-and-time again sounds like.
That’s what someone who is over it sounds like.
And then there’s Labour’s election policies. At best, they’re half-hearted, cobbled-together. Or they’re completely cynical.
GST off fruit and veggies. We know, don’t we, that not even Labour’s finance guy thinks it’s a good idea. In fact, we know that Grant Robertson thinks it’s a complete dog of an idea.
And we’ve already worked out that, if this happened, it would only be a few months before we’d have no idea whether we were paying less because of no GST. So that’s a half-baked, half-hearted policy if ever there was one.
Then there’s the cynical policy that came out last week, promising 300 new frontline cops if they get back into government.
Three months ago, Labour thought 1530 more frontline cops and 270 more back office cops was all we needed. Just weeks out from the election, though, it thinks we need to top that up with another 300. So cynical.
So cynical. So arrogant. And so tired. And that’s why it’s now polling like a government heading for oblivion.
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Chris Hipkins joined John MacDonald live in studio to discuss poll results, crime, and economic management. Plus, Labour’s strengths, weaknesses, and what Hipkins have left in the tank.
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Labour has plunged 5.5% in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, taking the party to just under 27% support.
National has shot up to 40.9%, while ACT's on 10%, the Greens 12.3% and New Zealand First is tip-toeing up to the threshold at 4.6%.
Former Senior Ministerial Advisor for the National Party Brigitte Morton told Kate Hawkesby that it’s a significant swing and is likely to stabilize back.
She said that this is probably the most significant downfalls in popularity that the Labour Government has seen.
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Chris Hipkins is accepting responsibility for the party's falling poll numbers.
There's now a 14-point gap in support between the incumbent party and National according to the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
Labour is down to 26.8% while the Nats hit 40.9%, and both party leaders are on 22.5% for preferred Prime Minister.
The Labour leader told Mike Hosking that the polls are not where they need them to be, and they have a job to do to turn them around over the next five weeks.
He says they have to campaign on their policies, claiming a lot of people are yet to register what they're putting forward.
Hipkins says they'll also be campaigning on the risk of a change of government.
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The economic slowdown is likely to be having a major impact on the Government's books.
Treasury is releasing its Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update at 1pm, the final fiscal update before Advanced Voting begins in two weeks.
It's expected to show revenue is lower and debt is higher than forecast in May's Budget.
Economist Michael Reddell told Mike Hosking that New Zealand now has a very high fiscal deficit.
He says while our debt is below the OECD average, it's much higher than it's been in the past.
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The psychological impacts are becoming clear for our two main parties 32 days out from the election.
The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has Labour down 5.5% to 26.8%, while National has jumped 4.3% to 40.9%.
ACT has fallen two points to 10%, but can comfortably govern with National.
Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls told Mike Hosking that it’s hard for Labour to get supporters out there knocking on doors when they're low.
He says meanwhile for National, they've hit heights not seen for some time, which will rally and energise their base.
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I’m wondering at this point who’s more obsessed with the election, the media, the politicians, or the voters.
The bulk of the feedback I’m getting at the moment is: we’re over it, open early voting, let’s get on with it, we just want change and a new direction. So as the politicians ramp up the campaigns and the polling starts spewing out percentages, and we begin crunching numbers and policy's getting released... who’s listening and watching? Over the weekend several policies got released - how many can you name or do you care about?
The people caring deeply right about now will be the Labour party’s strategists. Last night’s Newshub Reid research poll had Labour tumbling further, it’s tanked to a result not seen since Andrew Little was leader, and you know what happened then.
Newshub called it ‘a crisis poll’. 26.8% Labour’s dropped to a ‘catastrophic’, as the reporter called it, 5.5% fall. The gap’s widening with the Nats up to a whopping 40.9%, which is up another 4.3%. The Greens were on 12.3%, Act was down to 10.1%, so they’re down 2%. But NZ First’s still not quite making the 5% threshold, they were on 4.6%. So based on that poll, the Nats and Act would have 66 seats and comfortably govern.
Newshub’s reporter said this is Labour in a death spiral. On top of that, Hipkins is no longer the most preferred PM. Luxon has jumped up 6.6% to be level pegging with him as most preferred. It’ll surely only be a matter of time before Luxon overtakes him. So the energy Luxon's exuding is paying off. He says he’s “bouncing out of bed at 4.30 every morning” and he’s ‘wanting to get on with the job of the new National led government.’
Does he have it in the bag though? There’s no question both Luxon and the Nats have momentum. But four weeks is a long time in politics. A lot can happen between now and then. And don't forget the debates coming up. How prepared they all are for this is beyond me - I’d argue Hipkins is not a prepper, doesn’t appear to read much or get into the finer details, but he’s a scrapper and a fighter and will no doubt give it his all because he’s got nothing to lose. He'll throw everything at it. If he throws too much negativity and shade though, it could backfire.
Luxon on the other hand is the big unknown in that setting. He’s corporate, polite and moderate. Whether he can be deft on his feet remains to be seen. It’s not something you can prep too much in advance for either - what people want to see is whether he can come to life in a spontaneous fashion or at least sound a bit human. I hope he can just talk. Sound normal, not too rehearsed or staged, but also, arc up if need be. Passion is good, someone as upset and angry about what’s happened to this country as we are.
Can he do all those things? I don’t know. There're some who say it could be a vote loser for him if his debate performance is bad, but that brings me back to my original question: how engaged are we? How much do we care about all these things? Do people really change their mind on how they’ll vote, based on some bad TV? But then again, stranger things have happened.
Momentum is everything right now and all Luxon has to do is keep it up.
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Support for National has rocketed up to just over 40 percent, with a 4.3 point jump in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
Labour has taken a devastating tumble, down 5.5 percent to 26.8 percent.
ACT has fallen two points to 10 - but can comfortably govern with National.
The Greens are up to 12.3 percent, Te Pāti Māori is on three, while New Zealand First flirts with the threshold at 4.6 percent.
National finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis says they aren't counting chickens yet- but it's positive.
"It's pretty clear New Zealanders want a change of Government, they can see the country's going in the wrong direction and more and more of them are getting ready to vote for change."
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ACT's Leader denies he's threatening the National Party by suggesting a confidence-only deal, post-election.
David Seymour previously said his party would consider it - if National doesn't co-operate in negotiations.
That would force the larger party to seek the minor party's support for Government spending.
Seymour says ACT's position isn't new or dramatic.
"It's just saying- look, we actually want a tight working relationship, I've said that for a long time. But we reserve the right to stand up for the values and our voters to get better policy for them- and all New Zealand."
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Every Monday until the election The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis.
The Act Party has thrown a potential cat amongst the pigeons by threatening it may only enter a confidence deal with National.
The panel discuss whether Chris Luxon is losing credibility.
Labour’s polling continues to plummet – is there anything the party can do to turn its fortunes around?
And the panel discuss the potential partners for both National and Labour post polling days.
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In today’s Election Fix, Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen breaks down National Leader Christopher Luxon’s visit to Ohariu.
Newstalk ZB’s Political Editor Jason Walls takes a look ahead to tomorrow’s Pre Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU).
Plus, all your Election 2023 headlines.
Election Fix is your daily wrap of the Election 2023 campaign, talking to our reporters in the field plus the day’s big headlines.
Presented by Newstalk ZB’s Raylene Ramsay, Election Fix is your go-to update for everything you need to know as we count down to polling day.
Follow the podcast on I-Heart Radio, or wherever you get your podcasts and stay up to date.
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What a wild and woolly weekend on the hustings.
Christopher Luxon turns up on Q&A to talk about National's policies.
First up, he promises to close Rotorua's emergency housing motels and kick any troublesome Kainga Ora social housing tenants out.
Obviously, this is great news for law abiding Rotorua residents and New Zealanders suffering from the neighbours from hell.
But he forgot that people ask follow up questions. Like, so where do you put these people? To which he has no answer.
This is not good. Don't take my word for it. Avowed right winger Ashley Church was on Early Edition said this went too far. The State is the landlord of last resort, blah blah blah blah.
The social housing and the motels were a bad answer to a bad problem. Get rid of them and all you have is a badder problem getting worse. And if you think feral's behaviours are bad in a state house you wait until they live in a car. Luxon offered nothing.
Then he said their housing policies would provide downward pressure on rents. Of course, we all know he's a landlord so Tame asked the obvious question, "So will you reduce rents for your tenants in this new environment?". What followed was a stammering exercise. Claire Trevett describes it as a rookie MP in an interview with no answers.
Here's the thing, he's auditioning for the top job in the nation. If he can't stand up to Jack Tame, what's going to happen when Xi Jinping starts asking some hard house tax questions? What's going to happen in the leader's debates?
The reason this is a concern is because Labour really does seem like the Walking Dead. Fresh from their spectacular second term implosion and the loss of cabinet Minister after Cabinet Minister. After 6 years of failed promise after failed promise. With Hipkins seeming to be low on energy and new ideas and only bursting into life slagging the opposition. With all the other Labour MPs existing in radio silence either because they've been muted or they've got nothing to say. After all that, National should be romping home.
It should be like shooting fish in a barrel. Instead, Christopher Luxon just shoots himself in the foot. Time and time again.
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For an outfit that doesn’t like red tape, the National Party seems to be having some sort of brain explosion.
Because it doesn't just want EV owners to pay road user charges - which I don’t think anyone would disagree with - it also wants to go the whole hog and get rid of fuel taxes completely and make everyone pay road user charges.
So, at the moment, if you drive a petrol vehicle, you pay your bit for building and maintaining roads through a fuel excise tax. Which is simple as, because - being a tax - you pay it every time you go and fill the tank.
But National wants to turn all that on its head. It wants to get rid of the fuel taxes and make everybody do what people with diesel vehicles do right now. Which is, pay road user charges ahead of time - based on kilometres.
And then, when they’ve travelled all the kilometres they’ve paid for, they have to go and pay for more kilometres.
Which is why diesel is, technically, cheaper at the pump. Because the fuel tax isn’t applied to diesel because not all diesel vehicles actually travel on the road.
For example, you might have a diesel-powered digger which never goes on the road. So it would be unfair to make the digger owner pay a tax to raise money for road building and maintenance when the digger is never actually used on a road.
The argument National’s making for everyone paying road user charges, is that it doesn’t think it’s fair that people with petrol vehicles pay varying amounts of tax for building and maintaining roads, regardless of how much they use them.
Which is an interesting argument, because you might assume that how much fuel you buy is dependent on how much driving you do.
But National reckons it would be fairer for everyone to pay based on distance - or how much they use our roads - instead of a flat tax rate per litre of fuel.
National acknowledges that a fuel tax is the simplest way of collecting revenue, but reckons it could have the new system up-and-running in its first term of government. It's also making noises about more tolls on roads and congestion charges.
Which I think is pretty ambitious, given that Waka Kotahi is already saying that it’s going to be a struggle coping with increased road user charges for EVs.
Documents released under the Official Information Act show that Waka Kotahi expects to be dealing with an increase in what it calls “non-compliance and debt” when EV owners have to start paying road user charges.
The documents say: “There will not be enough resource to cope with the increase in education, engagement and enforcement needed.”
So, if they reckon they’re going to struggle with the EVs, how on earth would they cope with every Tom, Dick and Harry being expected to pay road user charges?
Because the great thing about fuel taxes, is that even the crims pay them.
And what about those renegade boy racers who rack up thousands of dollars of speeding fines? Do you really think they’re going to go all legit and make sure they’re up-to-date with the road user charges? They can’t avoid the fuel tax. But do you really think they’re going to worry about road user charges?
And what about all those muppets who are quite happy to drive around in cars with no warrants of fitness? If they can’t be bothered about getting a warrant and are quite happy to run the risk of getting a fine for that, are they really going to bother with road user charges? Of course not.
Which is why I think National is dreaming on this one.
Yes, I get the theory that it might very well be fairer to charge people based on how much they actually use the roads. But, as far as I’m concerned, this is an area where theory is trumped by reality. And why we would want to do away with the very simple and straightforward system we have now?
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We've also got an election coming up in five weeks, haven't we? So it was another weekend and another presentation of party policies coming thick and fast, wasn't it?
Health targets from National, the scrapping of building consents from ACT, our ocean policy from the Greens, disagreements between National and ACT and Labour when it comes to the impending shake-up of our scientific research sector, and the proposal to introduce road user charges on all cars from National.
Let's start with the road user charges. National will make electric vehicles subject to road user charges after March and funding for roads will eventually be obtained through pay per kilometre charges.
At present, light EVs are exempt from road user charges until the 31st of March 2024, although there are murmurings from this Government that they may extend that exemption again. No hard and fast rules.
Under National, there would be no extension to the exemption, and EVs would have to pay similarly to diesel vehicles, which have to purchase road user charges based on the number of kilometres they travel.
As things stand, this would see owners begin to be charged $76 per 1000 kilometres, to add to the $2 billion in road user charges raised from other motorists, mostly truckers and diesel car owners.
The suggestion to that all vehicles will eventually roll out to road user charges and will get rid of the fuel excise tax.
However, recent stories in the media say officials have been investigating what to do next as they struggled to modernise the regulatory system and how they deal with problems like compliance. A May 2023 Waka Kotahi document said ‘I see trouble’.
What are we going to do when people just say I'm not going to pay? They said there'll be an increase of non-compliance and debt for customers entering the road user charge system.
Current resources they say are set up to manage the existing RUC system. There will not be enough resources to cope with the increase in education, engagement and enforcement needed. Basically, it's enforcement.
Surely every idiot knows that when they say right you have to buy kilometres to drive your car, that's what you have to do. It's not rocket science.
They're not asking you to explain how an electric engine works. They're simply saying if you want to drive on the road, you have to buy kilometres. So it's the enforcement really that will be the issue.
Another document said a work program to look at the entire RUC system had been set up to bring together strategy and improvements.
Key strategic choices about road user charges are inherently linked to long-term revenue challenges including non-compliance and debt management. Basically what they're saying is that they're worried that the road user charges won't bring in as much dosh as the fuel tax does. Change would have to involve the Ministry of Transport, Treasury and police, it said.
So those are their concerns. We move to road user charges, people won't buy them. They'll stick two fingers up. They'll say okay, you find me?
You find me and charge me. The Nat’s say moving away from fuel excise and road user charges is a fairer way to charge for road use.
As New Zealand has more and more electric vehicles and hybrids on the road, there's less of a contribution being made through the form of excise, despite those cars using the very same roads. So, what is fair and what is not?
I know we get a lot of people who are grumpy, that EVs are not paying their way. They're heavy. Wear and tear on the roads is caused just as much by electric vehicles as it is by your normal combustion engine.
More and more of them are on the roads, which means less fuel tax going into the coffers to help pay for the roads.
Are the Nat’s right? Should we all be moving to road user charges? Is that the fairest way to ensure that those who use, pay?
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The only thing National did wrong on Friday was release its literacy policy.
Friday is not a good day for news cut-through.
To a degree, they were at a disadvantage, as was every other party considering Labour released some heating ideas for houses.
If you release it Friday many will miss it. But if you don't release anything you can be accused of a missed opportunity.
But the literacy policy is more fertile ground for National given the record of the Government. Labour rolled out poor, old Jan Tinetti who was gobsmacked and heartbroken and various other emotions over the change.
But she, like Ginny Andersen the day before when Labour laughably promised to crack down on gangs, is in no position to debate their portfolios, given they have been abject failures.
There is simply no hiding what has happened to our education system under this Government.
It has been Maorified, kids don’t turn up, results are shocking, standards have slipped and international testing shows the parlous state we are in.
Enter Erica Stanford, who is as good a prosecutor of her portfolio as any politician and is backed up by Chris Luxon, who talks of her being world-class.
Also on Friday, as a death knell of sorts for Labour was yet another poll. This one was the Taxpayers Union Curia poll showing Labour in nightmare country in the 20s. Winston Peters is also below 5 percent so there is a change of Government.
The other criticism was the growing commentary from the media on the lack of energy by Chris Hipkins. It is palpable - he looks tired and worn down and lacklustre.
He has nothing to say. A lot of his policies fall flat because they are juxtaposed against the reality of what has been delivered. Also, against him is what the media are claiming is the energizer bunny of Chris Luxon.
Luxon and Hipkins in the aforementioned poll in preferred Prime Minister numbers are even. That’s a growing story and next stop is Luxon overtaking him.
Let me tell you this for nothing - a lot of the media have been kind to Labour and even kinder to "Chippy from the Hutt".
That has turned. They see what we see.
They see a bloke from the private sector, a success story who at last is delivering with confidence and detail and aspiration. And they see a political lifer, out of puff with a record in tatters.
As much as we can say it, in mid-September, it is over.
If you want to make predictions, not only will we see a change of Government. It is increasingly likely that a landslide is on.
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An opinion New Zealand needs to lift its game in addressing its critical housing shortage.
Act wants builders to be able to use insurance companies as an alternative authority for consenting - cutting local council out of the process.
Leader David Seymour says he tried to help a man get a new type of Gib plasterboard approved by Auckland Council at the height of the Gib crisis.
He told Mike Hosking the council worker responsible for registering building material had gone away from work for three weeks.
“If you can’t get something like that done in any length of time in New Zealand, then there’s no way we’re gonna see innovation and get the more affordable housing that we want.”
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A view ACT's new housing policy sounds good in theory - but is a step too far in reality.
The party's unveiled its housing policy - which would see builders able to use insurance companies as an alternative authority for consenting - to speed up the process.
It aims to cut local councils out of the consenting process.
Property commentator Ashley Church told Kate Hawkesby he believes in getting rid of bureaucracy - but this policy is all over the place.
“I think there’s a risk with this that you’ll end up with shoddy housing – you'll end up with some equivalent of what happened with leaky homes back in the late 90s and we’ll be right back in that space again.”
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Questions around the National Party's plan for Road User Charges.
It's looking to extend road user charges to all vehicles if elected, including electric vehicles.
Motor Industry Association chief executive Aimee Wiley says it's not clear exactly how it will be rolled out.
She told Mike Hosking there are clear benefits to a fuel tax which aren't present with this new model.
“It’s a complicated problem because charging a fuel excise duty per litre is almost a foolproof system. It doesn’t need enforcement or monitoring.”
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National's Health spokesperson Shane Reti says he's hopeful of fixing the health portfolio.
The party's pledging to bring back targets if elected – focusing on shorter ED stays, faster cancer treatment and child immunisation rates.
It also wants shorter wait times for first specialist assessments and surgery.
Reti told Mike Hosking he's committed to getting the system to a point where it's out of the political spotlight.
He says health has been a bit like education was: one of those suicide portfolios – it's hard, and been made worse by Covid.
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An end may just be in sight for Rotorua's emergency housing.
If elected, the National Party are promising to scrap Rotorua's emergency hotels within 2 years.
They also want to reform Kainga Ora, giving the organisation more power to evict unruly tenants.
Rotorua mayor Tania Tapsell joined Mike Hosking.
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National's being accused of missing the point with its target for emergency departments.
The party's pledging to bring back health targets if elected, including 95 percent of ED patients to be admitted, discharged or transferred within six hours.
Northcare Accident and Medical's Peter Boot told Kate Hawkesby they should be thinking about primary care, which is falling over because doctors are either moving offshore or about to retire.
“And National’s policy of bolstering up secondary care is completely missing the point. It’s like mopping up the floor when the roof’s leaking.”
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National has announced it plans to bring back health targets, if the party gets into power come October.
Leader Chris Luxon confirmed the party would bring back targets - including for emergency departments, with 95 percent of patients to be admitted, discharged or transferred within six hours.
There are also new targets to quash wait times for specialist assessment and surgery, but no percentage figures have been committed to.
Health spokesperson Dr Shane Reti says targets will focus attention and funding to better serve the public- and clinicians agree.
"There's no simpler way to put it- when you set a target, you have a requirement to hold yourself accountable, you hold providers accountable, you hold the system accountable. At the end of the day, that's what politicians should be doing."
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The ACT Party think they have a solution to the problem to the New Zealand housing crisis, Resource Management and housing consenting. ACT's Todd Stephenson joins the Weekend Collective to tell us how they're going to do it.
Plus, The National Party have set out their 5 targets for improving the New Zealand health sector. Dr Shane Reti explains what these are, and how they're going to reform.
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This week on the Sunday Panel,NZ Herald senior writer Simon Wilson and Newstalk ZB Wellington Mornings host Nick Mills joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
The National Party says if elected, it will aim to end emergency housing motels within two years. It will do it through building more social housing and implementing tighter eligibility criteria so people have to use grants in areas they are already living. Is this a realistic goal? Can National pull this off?
The Rugby World Cup, the NRL finals and the 2023 election are all going on at the same time- which outcome ranks more important?
How confident are we feeling about the All Blacks and the Warriors, following a weekend full of losses?
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It's a big week in the world of politics, as Treasury is set to publish the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) on Tuesday.
All documents will be published on the Treasury's website shortly after 1.00pm on the day.
ZB Chief Political Reporter Aaron Dahmen says this information will provide an indication of how much cash the Government has on hand ahead of the election- which will likely be very little.
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National's Chris Bishop vows the use of emergency social housing motels in Rotorua will come to an end.
The party will do so through building more social housing and implementing tighter eligibility criteria so people have to use grants in areas they are already living.
Chris Bishop says emergency housing in Rotorua has become a 'massive' permanent institution, with the Government pumping millions into a short-term solution.
"The Government has basically washed their hands of it and said- it's all too difficult, we're not going to try and make a difference here. What we're going to do is say- if you've been in a motel for 12 weeks or longer, you have an absolute priority to get out of that motel and get into a social house."
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So the first week of campaigning is underway, and I’m already exhausted by the scale of scheduled events, appearances and the very bright pink ACT bus I encountered on Friday. And I’m mostly just watching it unfold from the comfort of my computer.
How good is it to see the politicians on the road, selling their wares and finally giving us their vision for New Zealand through their policy announcements? Until earlier this year the opposition's job was to tell us what they thought the Government was doing wrong- now they need to be more interesting and present their ideas. We finally get to judge whether they’re any better - even doable -and if we think they’ll improve New Zealand over the next three years.
Week one has given us plenty of policy to unpack and queries to raise.
We heard plenty of robust discussions on dental care, law and order, gangs, education and red tape cutting reviews- this is where the value of an election lies and where our focus needs to be.
Where it doesn’t need to be is on attack ads and the amount of misinformation banded about this week.
Attack ads, exaggerated statements and loose interpretations of the truth are not uncommon in politics. Everyone does it, always have, always will. Some would go as far as to say it’s part of the job description.
But what I think shocked many polite New Zealanders this week was the blatant nature of the CTU advertisement attacking Luxon in the NZ Herald. I didn’t think the photo was that bad, and ironically National will be delighted at the outrage directed at those who placed the ad. It also conveniently draws attention from National’s own attack ads, which you’ll find online.
On its' own, the ad may not have looked so bad for Labour - it would have been easy to blame the CTU for getting the tone wrong. But when the Prime Minister this week also had to correct comments he made about free public transport, and other Labour MPs such as Andrew Little, Willie Jackson, and Duncan Webb were called on false statements they made about National and ACT policies which don’t exists, you could feel the desperation building.
Elections are a battle. After the misinformation and polling experienced by Labour they need to acknowledge they lost the battle for the week, but just like the All Blacks- there’s still a war to be won. For both teams one of the keys to victory will be improving their discipline, which let them down this week.
Trust is hard to come by for politicians, and they should think twice before throwing it away. Desperation may be seeping it - but the only thing worse than feeling desperate is showing voters you’re desperate.
Let’s hope for a classier week of campaigning this week.
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National's released more of its education policy today.
If it wins the election, it will require primary schools to teach every single child how to reach using structured literacy.
It's basically a return to phonics, instead of the whole language approach used for the last 50 years.
Education spokesperson Erica Stanford joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.
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Parliament has officially wound up today.
New Zealand Herald Extraordinary Phillip O'Shea headed procedures earlier today, despite Parliament officially closing last week.
A new Taxpayers Union-Curia poll has spelled turmoil for the Labour Party.
It's put the party at 27 percent - no change from last month - but well behind National at 35 percent.
But Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says his election campaign is "only just ramping up".
Meanwhile, National leader Chris Luxon has been rounding up the business conference, pledging to bring back 90-day trials and concentrate on low productivity.
Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.
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If you are a parent or a grandparent worried about whether our schooling will teach your child to read properly – you need to listen to this.
Good education announcement from National today. I have been waiting for anyone to announce this for a couple of years now. So I'm pleased someone’s finally done it.
If the Nats win the election, they will require all primary schools to teach little ones to read using structured literacy – which is basically going back to phonics.
Now let me explain to you why this is potentially a game changer.
For the last 50 years, our schools have not been teaching phonics. They have been teaching what’s called whole language.
And basically what that does is assumes that kids will naturally learn to read just like they learn to talk.
If you leave books with pictures lying around for them and if the book has the word apple next to a picture of an apple – that will teach them to read.
It is rubbish. It does not.
It is such a fail that 36 percent of our 14-year-olds failed the NCEA pilot reading exam last year.
The reading ability of our 10-year-olds is the worst it’s ever been and is apparently the worst in the English-speaking world.
So what's been going on is that a lot of schools have been spending thousands of dollars of their own money to pay consultants to come in and help them teach in another way, which is called structured literacy. And as I say – basically goes back to phonics.
And they have been getting amazing results, the kids are learning to read again.
Here's an example:
Kaiapoi North School in Canterbury spent $20,000 and the principal said it was worth every cent.
After two years: the principal said 68 of their 72 kids learning it were at or above the curriculum standards and scoring not around 70 percent – but in the 90 percents.
The Education Ministry knows this.
There have been campaigns for years to get them to go back to phonics.
New South Wales has just gone back to phonics, and yet our Education Ministry has dragged their heels.
And now finally, the Nats have seen the light.
And they say if they win in October, teachers will all be teaching structured literacy to kids, and the way it’s phrased – they will not have the option of doing anything else.
There will be tests on Year 2s to make sure it’s working, and every new teacher will be taught it too.
And that is brilliant.
I tell you what this could be a game changer.
It could genuinely be the thing that lifts our reading rates again and turns our education system around, because if you can’t read... you can’t do any education.
Good, simple, practical announcement.
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Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls and Wellington City Councillor Nicola Young join Nick Mills on Friday Faceoff.
Together they critique the first week of the 2023 election campaigns, whether it's possible for National to get construction going on a second Mount Victoria tunnel, Foodstuffs taking the city council to court over the Thorndon Cycleway and plans to build a charity hospital on Adelaide Road.
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Labour's self aggrandising press release on police came through late in the show yesterday, so we didn't really get a chance to get our teeth into it.
The press release came from Chris Hipkins, well his office. A Labour Government will deliver a further increase of 300 additional frontline police officers, new ways to crack down on gangs, and strengthen legal protections against stalking and harassment, we will also continue to crack down on gangs.
Recently, we've seen communities disrupted and intimidated by dangerous gang convoys. “This is intolerable,” said the press release. Labour will introduce laws to punish this behaviour and develop new ways to target gang leaders and break their international links.
Seriously?
How can their speech writers deliver this stuff? How? Given the attitude that this administration has shown towards the gang since they first arrived, thanks to Winston Peters on the scene. How can Chris Hipkins, in all honesty, face New Zealanders and say, “Labour's been tough on gangs”?
This government's attitude towards gangs, towards working with gangs, towards giving gangs a seat at the table without them earning one, has resulted in the gang members and the gang leaders thinking they can have it both ways. That many of their members can grow fat off criminal activity and they get to be treated with respect, as respected members of the community.
Remember Paul? You might remember Paul from the show, hard working Paul, who rang me as he was heading off for a day's work on the farm in Opotiki. He rang because the topic was home detention and he said he himself had a bracelet, he was articulate, he was clearly hard working. Halfway through the conversation, he reveals he's a mobster for life and he had an extraordinary attitude about where gangs sit in the pantheon of New Zealanders.
So here you've got somebody who is who is articulate, hardworkin, mobster for life and truly believes that because prime ministers have roads closed for them, a long standing member of the mob in Opotiki should have the same respect accorded to him.
Where did that sense of entitlement come from? Do you and I expect roads to close, towns to shut down, and people to be inconvenienced because one of our family members died? It's happened all over the country. It’s not just Opotiki. The gangs do, They truly think that when one of their members, who they respect and they think is the man, when one of their members dies, everybody has to down tools. Everybody has to be inconvenienced. Everybody has to wait while they do what they need to do to show their respect.
Where has that attitude come from? It has come from Government contracts being awarded to gangs and gang sympathisers. From police, turning a blind eye to gang convoys. All the way through Covid we saw the gangsters hanging out of cars, gathering in far more numbers than rules allowed. I mean the rules were stupid, they were dumb, but the only way we were going to get through it is if we obeyed them.
To gangs, appointing PR personnel to argue their case on mainstream media. Good morning Louise Hutchinson. To orthodox members of the community turning up to Waikato Kingdom Mob hui, giving the event the sheen of respectability. While members of that same gang, senior members, the 2IC for God's sake, were still dealing drugs on an industrial level. Don Brash, Madama Davidson, respected academics all turning up saying, “oh yes, let's help give mob members a steer on alternative ways of being.”
I'm all for that, you know, giving people another chance. If people truly want to commit to being productive, hardworking members of the community and not make their living out of crime, afford them every possibility. But how can you stand there and say, oh, you know we're anti-drugs while your 2IC’s being sent away for 10 years for dealing meth and GHB.
Seriously, you've got management issue problems if your 2IC thinks it's okay to be dealing drugs on that level. Enough, enough, enough. If gangs want to keep what they're doing, raking in millions while peddling misery. Can we at least make it hard for them? I mean, at the moment we're closing roads to allow them to do what they do. Can we make it clear that most of us would rather work honestly than live the BS, chrome- flashy, “I've got my bitches at home working for me” kind of thing that these gangsters just seem to be so proud of. They do not deserve a seat at the table until they have earned it.
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Here’s what Chris Hipkins should have said when he made the big announcement yesterday that, if Labour gets to form the next government, it will deliver 300 extra police officers and they’ll have a look at legislation to crack-down on gang convoys.
What he should have said, is: “If you vote for us, we will finally give you what you assumed we were going to give you, until you realised at the last minute that we had let you assume the wrong thing without correcting you”.
Because, when you think back to June this year, that’s all yesterday’s announcement was.
Because back in June, that was when we discovered that the 1800 new police officers that the current police minister and the Labour police ministers before her had crowed-on about for yonks, was actually 1,530 frontline officers and 270 “authorised officers” as the police call them.
And you’ll remember how all the time that Labour was banging on about 1800 new cops, nothing was said about not all of them being frontline, on the beat.
So what they've done now, is take the 270 we thought we were getting - until three months ago - and rounded it up to a tidy 300.
It's a sudden change-of-heart that is next-level cringe. Because of the hypocrisy.
Here’s a quote from some of the things the Labour leader said yesterday: “We know that one of the things that we can do that really helps to tackle crime in our community is to make sure that we have more officers on the beat, and that those police have the tools that they need in order to be able to tackle crime.”
And he said that with a straight face.
He also managed to keep a straight face when he said that the 300 so-called extra cops would change the ratio of cop-per-person in New Zealand from one police officer for every 541 people to one police officer for every 470 people.
And the reason why I was so impressed that he kept a straight face, is because he said that the reduced ratio of cop-per-person would come about by adding the 300 they’re promising if re-elected to the 1800 more cops we have had under Labour.
Again, more fudging. Because we don’t have 1800 more on the beat at all. We have 1,530 frontline officers and 270 “authorised officers”. 270 back in the office.
Police Minister Ginny Anderson was the same yesterday. Equally as brilliant in the straight-face department.
That’s why they should have said yesterday that, if they get re-elected, Labour will deliver what it said it would deliver in the first place. But didn’t.
And that’s why I think this so-called new policy is nothing more than desperate politics.
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So week one of the campaign, well I call it week one because the two major parties had their launches.
Of course, they've been campaigning for months, unless you are Chris Hipkins who upon receiving a poll a week or so back claimed he hadn't campaigned at all, until Megan Woods on this show busted him.
He showed ironically that same trait this week when he started defending Willie Jackson, who blatantly made stuff up about Act and National and the minimum wage.
Even when he corrected it, he got it wrong.
Instead of being straight up and down about it, Hipkins started dancing on the head of a pin and used the word "technically". He shouldn't do that, it makes him look churlish and dishonest.
It was the same trick with the vaccines. No one made you get one, technically he was right. But if you were a nurse, or ran a business where a jab was required, you didn't have to get one the same way you didn't have to have a business or a job. So not really a choice then, is it?
The policy of the week was Act and their productivity work.
National gets a mention for a tunnel and some EV chargers, but mainly the dumping of the ute tax.
Labour get the "are you serious?" policy award for their five things to make the economy grow, as though anyone can argue with them and they should have already been in place for at least six years.
And in that is part of their problem. The cold, hard truth is they really can't campaign on their record, for obvious reasons.
The media get a 6/10. There is no shortage of coverage but, boy, you have to look for it. There are live streams of announcements, there is detail about the place; but there is also a predilection for the pointless. There's been coverage of protests and name calling and, from some, an obsession to see skullduggery where there isn't.
The lying, the straight up and down lying, by your Andrew Little's and Willie Jackson's and Shannon Halbert's does need to be called out. It needs to stop.
Chris Bishop gets Cry Baby of the Week for his faux upset over the union ads. Yes, they were low rent and, given about a quarter of union members voted for National in 2017, you might ask whether it's a good use of your subs.
But it is hardly the most egregious campaign crime ever committed.
Add to that a couple of polls, so we've had the numbers to chew over, and for the first week I've had a ball.
The desperation isn't on show yet and no one made a major gaffe.
But there's plenty of time for that yet.
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The National Party is promising to build a new “Great Walk” as part of its new tourism policy.
It's planed an $14m upgrade the 80km Waiau-Toa/Molesworth walking track in Canterbury, creating the 11th Great Walk.
Hurunui Mayor Marie Black told Tim Dower that having a track of this distinction in their district would be a significant boost for the local and regional economies.
She said that the district would embrace something of this nature, and it could bring in the big spenders.
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National says we should be the safest country in the world, but we're not.
If elected, Labour's announced a plan which would boost Police numbers by 300 over four years and tackle gangs.
It would allow Police to go after convoys and confiscate cars, motorbikes, and tractors.
National’s Justice Spokesperson Mark Mitchell told Mike Hosking that they have their own announcement to make soon.
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Labour's law and order policy would allow Police to confiscate cars, motorbikes, and even tractors.
Police Minister Ginny Andersen says it's designed for large scale convoys going through public roads, disrupting people's daily lives.
Criminal lawyer Steve Cullen told Tim Dower that it appears they'll come at them after the fact.
He says they will have to show there's a breach of the road laws by people in two or more vehicles.
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Really? New Zealand First... really?
I mean, I know it's a pretty desperate time... we're all a bit lost and confused and disappointed, frustrated and seriously peed off at the state of the country right now.
But to see a poll showing New Zealand First potentially over the five percent threshold? I guess it shows how desperate things are for a lot of people.
It's not my place to tell you how to vote, or how not to vote, but what I will say is: just think of the history.
Think of the dramas, the twists and turns, how you thought you had a clear commitment on something, only to see a complete 180 when it comes to the crunch.
Think how many times we've been held to ransom, double-crossed, gaslit, and bullshitted... you really wanna go there again?
I've heard Chris Luxon saying he's focused on National and getting the best result he can, and I think that's the right tack to take.
But I suspect he and other senior figures in the party will be disappointed that they're not yet winning over more of the centre-right or right leaning vote.
ACT has been doing well, and while you want your potential coalition partner to be strong and well run, it's not so much fun when they're eating your lunch.
The conclusion has to be that National has a way to go in getting its message across properly, hitting the right buttons and doing it convincingly.
If it was, what we saw in the Talbot Mills poll last night wouldn't be happening.
People whose natural tendency would be to vote for the Nats aren't convinced. They're not happy. This is a disaffected protest vote.
There's still a long way to go, five weeks of campaigning yet, and of course people don't necessarily always tell pollsters the truth.
To my mind, what we need from this election is a clear decision, one way or the other.
There's a lot at stake. It's not a game.
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Tonight on The Huddle, former Labour chief of staff and Maxim Institute director Tim Wilson joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has apologised today - after his party released social media ads with misleading information about National's plan to scrap the first-year fees-free policy for tertiary education. This is on top of Willie Jackson claiming a National/ACT Government would get rid of the minimum wage. Is this issue unique to Labour? What's going on with these lies?
Police Minister Ginny Andersen says Labour is committed to continuing investment in fighting crime. The party promised 300 more police officers over four years if re-elected, on top of the1800 more officers added during their previous term. How effective will this scheme be?
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More trouble for the carbon credit scheme that Labour wants to use to fund climate initiatives.
The Government has tried - and failed - a third time to auction off credits, giving businesses the right to emit carbon dioxide.
This means Treasury is now short over $900 million ahead of Tuesday's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update.
The Country's Jamie Mackay says the credits will be available to purchase again- but economists warn the units could be harder to sell a fourth time.
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Claims truth is the first casualty of the election season.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has had to apologise for the actions of several party members, with inaccurate information being shared about National and ACT's plans for the country.
Willie Jackson found himself in hot water over his claims about minimum wage, junior staffers have been exposed lying about the opposition's plans for student loan interest- among others.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says the first week of the 2023 election campaign has been dominated by untruths from Labour.
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National's transport spokesman has labelled Auckland Light Rail's commercial building purchase 'shocking'.
Auckland Light Rail has signed a $33 million contract to buy the Kiwi Bacon Building, located on New North Road.
That's despite National vowing to scrap the $14.6-billion-dollar project if elected next month.
Simeon Brown says the Government has had six years to deliver and hasn't presented a business case to purchase the building.
"The Government hasn't got a business case, they haven't got a route- yet they've decided to spend $33 million on a commercial property. This is absolutely unbelievable."
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The Police Minister says bolstering the police force will help New Zealand tackle a complex crime situation.
Labour has promised 300 more cops over four years if re-elected.
It's on top of about 1800 more staff coming on board since Labour won the 2017 election.
Police Minister Ginny Andersen says it will make a material difference.
"Those extra police officers mean that when people call the phone and ring up police, we get a response immediately."
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This week on Behind the List, Newstalk ZB's Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper digs into the first week of the Election 2023 campaign.
He speaks to both Labour and National's Campaign Chairs, Megan Woods and Chris Bishop.
Soper challenges Woods over Labour's misinformation this week and questions Bishop on National's claim this is the most negative campaign in modern history.
The seasoned political journalist casts major doubt over Labour's free dental care policy and gives his take on the reaction to National's tax policy.
Behind the List with Barry Soper is a weekly interview-based podcast that will get you behind the newsmakers of Election 2023.
Soper will use his years covering politics to give you the cutting-edge analysis only a commentator with his expertise can.
This podcast is your guide to cut through the headlines, giving you fresh insight into the week that was on the campaign.
Behind the List with Barry Soper, every Thursday afternoon powered by Newstalk ZB.
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Newstalk ZB Political Reporter Sophie Trigger joins Nick Mills on the Beehive Buzz.
This week she discusses how each major party is performing in the lead up to the 2023 election, the reaction to the CTU attack ads on Christohper Luxon, and an ongoing Trade Dispute between Canada and New Zealand which has now been resolved.
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Now this is more like it team!
Leaders of Labour, National, and the Green Party all pledged last night to build at least another 1000 state houses a year in Auckland, if they win the election, in whatever configuration. Prime Minister Chris Hipkins, National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis, the Greens Co-leader Marama Davidson were guests at the launch in Māngere of Te Ohu Whakawhanaunga Tāmaki Makaurau, an umbrella group for this social housing sector which combines 45 groups all within the social housing sector - community housing providers, churches, unions and community networks.
It wasn't all peace, love, and Kumbaya, though. I mean, there is an election campaign underway, after all.
So, during the speeches and the pledging Chris Hipkins pumped up Labour. Labour has already exceeded the 1000 commitment. We've built 12,000 social house units since 2017. Seven thousand of them have been in Tamaki Makaurau but there is more work to be done.
National’s Nicola Willis told the audience there were 261 people on the state house waiting list in Auckland when Labour took office in 2017, now there are 8175. So both parties made their points while making the pledge, but be that as it may, I think this is a really good first step.
Remember the other day when we were talking about the doctor's strike? And during a conversation I said, why don't the main parties agree to a minimum level of staffing in all hospitals, so that whoever's in Government says that this is the commitment we've made?
This is what we need to do. This is how many people we need to have on the floor at any given time and commit to it. Make it happen.
There should be some absolute fundamentals when it comes to infrastructure and a best practice curriculum within the education system, you know the basic stuff that keeps the country running. Then the politicians can play politics around the edges. If they're just left to tinker around the edges, that will minimise the damage that comes with ideologically driven politics. We need best practice, common sense politics.
So I think this is a good start, but boy, imagine being on the waiting list for a home.
This was where the election was, to a certain extent, won and lost for National in 2017. Ultimately, Winston Peters decided who won that election, and there must be a special place reserved in Hades for people like that. But housing was our big issue for National with people sleeping in their cars, families sleeping in their cars, with marae opening their doors and housing people through the cold winters.
And housing has been big news again because of Labour's empty hollow promises. Because Labour has also done some work, belatedly, on trying to get more state houses. But on the fact that there is so much need and again you can argue that's Labours poor policy. The unintended consequences of which they have been so often guilty, when it comes to the bright line test and the landlords.
Sure, it might make people get out of the private landlord market, but it has swollen the emergency housing list and the state housing list.
So 1000 a year in Auckland alone, sure. That's a very good start. It'll take more than eight years to even meet the need right now. Where are those houses going to come from and where are people living? If they can't afford to rent, they can't afford to pay their mortgage. Where do you live? How do you get your kids going to a school regularly when you've got no security about where you wake up?
In other political news, Nationals committed to building 10,000 new electric vehicle chargers because Chris Luxon says kiwis aren't switching to EVs because they have range anxiety. That would be a no.
I'm not switching to an EV because at the moment I have other things to spend $60,000 on. You know, even with the Government subsidy for EV's, that’s a lot of money to spend on a car. Also, because I'm going to need a hard car in the Hokianga. All well and good pootling along in my little electric vehicle but if I'm stuck in the floods in the Hokianga, I'm going to need something with a bit of tit to get me out. And my Nissan Leaf isn't going to be it, is it? No. So range anxiety is the least of my anxieties at the moment, Christopher Luxon. But thank you very much anyway.
Labour has announced a five point plan to grow the economy. I think my 6-year-old grandson could probably have come up with the same five points. He reads a bit. We have big discussions. He knows a bit about New Zealand. Export stuff. Yes, very good, excellent. Make our agriculture sector excellent - it is already, in spite of your Government, Chris Hipkins. Be a global leader in renewable energy. Well, that's a relatively new one. OK, I'll give you that one. Harness New Zealand's digital creativity and expertise. Have they met the team behind Weta? Have they heard of Sir Ian Taylor? These people have been developing New Zealand's digital creativity and being experts at it for years, all by themselves, without any Government handouts whatsoever. In fact, you've been an impediment to these people doing business.
Oh, and the last one. Get tourists to come here. Good one. Genius Chris! God. That's what we're doing or are trying to do, but you keep getting in the way. All of these things New Zealanders have been doing for more than 150 years. I'd even go so far as to say the digital stuff. You know, we've been innovating constantly because we've had brilliant scientists and we've had great minds. We've been doing this and all you have done for the past six years is get in the way. And impeded people from doing what they do best. Your five point power plan for the economy. Seriously, that is the best you can do? Cannibalize and ride on the coattails of what's already being done. Cool. Cool policy, Chris.
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My policy of the week, and this may or may not become a thing for the next couple of weeks depending on the quality of what we see, goes to Act and their productivity ideas.
That’s not to say a tunnel in Wellington isn't a solid idea, but it's not hard to announce a tunnel.
Productivity is one of the great handbrakes on allowing this country to be great. We have talked about it for years and failed at liftoff every single time.
Part of it is the make up of our economy. Productivity is hard to grasp in certain areas because simply doing more is not necessarily more productive. Being in tech is an area more open to productivity gain than say farming corn, for example.
But as Act quite rightly point out, we place an emphasis on the Treaty and we look at things through climate lenses, so why not productivity?
Imagine if every major call had to pass the same hurdle a road does. That is why you end up with the road and a cycleway and a bus lane. It's why this Government has carved out Lord knows how many examples of race based policy exclusively for Maori.
Act are specific around productivity - cut taxes, reduce barriers to investment, revisit all old and new regulations and cut red tape. It's the sort of thing you can't really argue with. But you can let it creep if you don’t give it priority.
Now, this is big picture stuff. But it does go back to what we were saying yesterday.
Is anyone interested in policy, in actual specifics? Or are we just on a vibe of "I like these guys and I don’t like those guys".
By the end of this campaign, will anyone be able to articulate a policy on productivity? Or will it have been reduced down to a few headline grabs?
I note yesterday the media coverage of one of the debates being held involved Willie Jackson and him calling people thick. So that’s the news coverage is it? No policy, just the one line grab.
Is that this campaign is it? Pop your head over a fence, disrupt a meeting, call someone a name and, bang, you're guaranteed a headline?
Act deserve credit for offering up actual ideas that are broad based and full of potential and also by being one of the few so far that talk about the future of this country beyond October 14.
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Labour's defending its plan to grow the economy, saying it's about capitalising on strengths rather than playing the same old tune.
The five point plan includes growing an export-led country, boosting renewable energy, enhancing tourism, and focusing on sustainable agriculture technology.
Labour Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson told Mike Hosking that New Zealand's always been an export nation, but this is about maximising the value of that.
He says they want to shift what we do into areas that are of more productive value, and therefore pay higher wage jobs.
Robertson claims there've been a number of advances in these areas in the past few years.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Jack Tame from ZB's Saturday Mornings and Q&A and Ben Thomas from Ben Thomas PR joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
Chris Hipkins has had to apologise for the actions of another MP, this time Willie Jackson. Jackson claimed ACT and National would get rid of the minimum wage. Is Labour's campaign out of control?
Labour has laid out a five-point plan to grow the economy- how strong does this look? In particular, how credible is this newfound focus on India?
Missing Marokopa man Tom Phillips is now wanted over an alleged bank robbery- what do we think of this?
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ANZ economists are warning that taxpayers may have to cover the extra interest accumulated on Government debt.
If the Treasury has to issue more bonds than the market wants, the price of the bonds will fall, and their yields will rise- which will cost taxpayers.
NZ Herald Wellington business editor Jenee Tibshraeny says the Government is bringing in less tax revenue that expected as the economy slows- and Treasury will have to factor that in.
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Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has laid out a five-point economic strategy for Labour's third term in Government- if the party's re-elected.
Hipkins promised he'll lead a delegation to India to foster relations and eventually establish a trade deal.
$100 million will also be spent on Venture Capital Fund for investment in agri-tech, to encourage innovation.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says this Government has ignored India as a trade partner- until the election came around.
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National's Nicola Willis is promising a 'competitive, cost-effective' scheme that will benefit Kiwi motorists.
Leader Chris Luxon is pledging to deliver 10,000 EV chargers over the next 4 years, at a cost of $257 million.
National also seeks to dump Labour's clean car discount scheme.
Nicola Willis says National will collaborate with the private sector to deliver a competitive bidding process that will reduce costs.
"It supports the investment, and it makes sure that we get the chargers in the right places around the country, so that all people are happy about driving EVs."
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Willie Jackson maintains he's not deliberately disseminating disinformation - but says everyone's having an election year biffo.
During a debate last night, Senior Labour Minister Jackson incorrectly maintained ACT and National planned to abolish the minimum wage.
Jackson later clarified he was being facetious.
He said he was in the heat of the moment, though he also agrees Kiwis should be aware of what politicians are saying.
Jackson explained that we're in a campaign - and everyone is having a bit of a scrap.
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An economic commentator says Labour's economic policy is big on aspiration, but lacks specifics and understanding.
Their five-point election plan to grow the economy includes the PM heading to India in the first 100 days to foster relations.
It would also invest $100 million in agri-tech and boosting tourism.
Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says it doesn't deal with the big issues we're facing.
"The word inflation appears once, never about bringing inflation down. The fiscal plan just says- we'll run a surplus sometime in the future."
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Federated Farmers says it's concerned about the Ministry for the Environment handing out money to encourage participation in reform of the Resource Management Act.
The advocacy group claims it's been offered $600,000 over three years to fund submissions and appearances at hearings.
Spokesperson Mark Hooper says it's a high price tag and the timing doesn't make sense.
"Why try and push this through in the six-week leadup to a general election, when we know that there's opposition parties that are talking about repealing some of these reforms?"
The Ministry has been approached for comment.
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Infrastructure NZ CEO Nick Leggett and Wellington Gold Awards Director John Dow join Nick Mills on the Business Panel.
Together they discuss up the upcoming election and what businesses want from the next Government, National wanting to start construction on a second Mount Victoria tunnel in their first term, and the Shelly Bay development being gone with the wind.
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National Party Leader Christopher Luxon is in Christchurch as part of the campaign and joined John MacDonald live in studio.
They discussed the social investment fund, how will that help the likes of the homeless on Colombo Street. Is National's Tax Policy as transparent as it should be? And what will he do about the health system should he be elected into Government?
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As much as things change, the more they stay the same
We have already witnessed one of the election's major lessons - Government's lose the vote, Opposition's don’t win them.
We vote on the vibe, on a mood and the specifics are wasted on the engaged and the wonks.
Labour and their mates have worked very hard since last week to try and undo National's tax policy, but they have failed. The evidence is in Thomas Coughlan's piece in the NZ Herald yesterday, a piece well worth reading because it's full of detail.
But here is the key line - "It is complicated stuff. Many people contacted for this story politely declined to give their view on the issue, citing niche complexity of international trade and tax agreements. The dispute is being fought in a hotly contested area that only a handful of people can claim to fully understand."
And with that, you move on. If the so-called experts can't agree, and the rest don’t even want to talk about it, I think we can safely conclude there is no resolution and you will decide not on the minutiae, but whether you like the idea of keeping more of your money.
Another policy that got little coverage was National's idea to set up a cyclone and flood recovery ombudsman, the idea being you address disaster a lot faster than we have seen this year.
The Prime Minister dismissed it as more bureaucracy, which I thought was kind of odd, given his own bureaucracy has left at least three regions and part of another very unhappy with how they have been dealt with.
In other words, Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, Northland and chunks of Auckland are only just sorting themselves out after delays in decisions over events in January. Do they feel good about the way they have been treated? Are they voting on specifics of policy or the sense that they were let down badly when they needed help and what was offered didn’t cut it?
That, essentially, is the story of this campaign, or at least it will be when it's played out.
A two term Government with a record that too many will have decided is not for them; whether it's crime and ram raids or health and ED's you can't get to or clinics that are closed because of lack of staff or they're on strike or the recession we have been in, and perhaps the second one we are about to battle through, - that’s what drives votes.
Policy is a distant second to the mood. Specifics are well down the list to the emotion of how you are feeling.
It's why we don’t read the fine print.
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MPs Megan Woods and Mark Mitchell joined the Mike Hosking Breakfast to wrap the week's political news.
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Tonight on The Huddle, Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR and Hauraki's Matt Heath joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day- and more!
The latest Roy Morgan poll has ACT shooting up to 18 percent and Labour down to 24 percent, giving a Nats/Act coalition the chance to govern. If true, this is a real downer to Labour, right?
National is promising another tunnel through Mount Victoria for Wellingtonian motorists- to begin construction by their first term in Government. Will this help get more votes?
Thousands of senior doctors and dentists went on strike today over deadlocked pay negotiations between their union and Te Whatu Ora. Does Te Whatu Ora need to concede to their requests- before more skilled doctors move to Australia?
Two walkers were rescued from the top of Mount Ngauruhoe on Saturday - wearing light clothes and unsuitable footwear. Are these types of rescues a good use of resources?
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A fiery start to the campaign season, as political leaders addressed prospective voters at a BusinessNZ-hosted conference.
Luxon assured business leaders he would treat them 'like adults' as he criticised Labour's ongoing relationship with the sector.
Hipkins, speaking after Luxon, defended the Government’s choppy economic record and claimed Labour's 'economic fundamentals were in good shape.'
ACT's David Seymour took shots at Julie-Anne Genter from the Greens, saying he wouldn't even trust her to handle Venezuela's economy.
BusinessDesk managing editor Pattrick Smellie recapped the mood of the event.
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ACT and National are on track to govern while Labour slumps to a new low, according to a new poll.
The latest Roy Morgan survey shows ACT has surged by 4 points to 18 percent, catching up to National's 31, down 2.5 percent.
Labour's taken a fall- their support dropped a further 2 percent to 24.
ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says the Roy Morgan poll is often dismissed in the lead-up to election night- but it's an accurate indicator.
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There's renewed debate over whether an Independent Costings Watchdog is needed to verify election promises.
Labour, National and the Greens have all shown support for the idea.
The Taxpayers' Union's Jordan Williams says an office separated from the Government of the time is needed to verify each party's election promises for the sake of democracy.
"So we don't end up like the situation where we used to have, where even with the big parties, there was just no questioning of costs."
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ACT says it isn't taking anything for granted, despite a staggering leap in a new political poll.
The Roy Morgan survey puts it up 4 points to 18 percent - their highest result since December 2021.
National is down 2.5 points to 31 percent, but can govern with ACT - while Labour has slumped to a historic low of 24 percent.
ACT leader David Seymour says Roy Morgan was the most accurate in the last election, but one of the least before that.
"But what we do know is that people do actually want some real change. They don't want to swap red for blue, Chris for Chris- and basically say business as usual, but show up in a blue tie."
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National's promising shovels in the ground in its first term for a second Mount Vic tunnel- if it gets the top job after the election.
Infrastructure spokesperson Chris Bishop says they'll get consents fast tracked.
He says it's good for buses, cars, walking, cycling, and it will decongest Wellington.
National says alongside upgrades to the Basin Reserve, it'll cost $2.2 billion dollars.
The proposal differs to Let's Get Wellington Moving, which would use one tunnel just for walking and cycling.
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Behind the List with Barry Soper is a weekly interview-based podcast that will get you behind the newsmakers of Election 2023.
Newstalk ZB’s Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper has been involved in political coverage since the 1970s, featuring as Newstalk ZB’s political editor for many years after joining the station and press gallery in 1980.
Soper will use his years covering politics to give you the cutting-edge analysis only a commentator with his expertise can.
Behind the List is your guide to cut through the headlines, giving you fresh insight into the week that was on the campaign.
You’ll get the winners and losers of the week, in-depth interviews with the political newsmakers and an overview of the campaign including Barry’s expert insight.
Starting Thursday 7 September, Behind the List delves beyond the headlines of Election 2023.
Follow Behind the List with Barry Soper on Newstalk ZB and on iHeartRadio.
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03 September 2023: Last week Hamish Williams and psychotherapist Kyle MacDonald asked listeners what they wanted to know from politicians about their parties' mental health policies. This week, six of these questions are answered by the six major political parties.
With thanks to NZ on Air.
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ACT's new energy policy is being praised as a helpful solution for New Zealand's future.
The party has reiterated its pledge to overturn the ban on oil and gas exploration, and revealed it will scrap the Lake Onslow pumped hydro project.
ACT is also campaigning on cutting red tape for offshore wind power projects - and bringing in a regulatory framework for carbon capture technology.
Energy Resources Aotearoa chief executive John Carnegie says ACT's policy announcement takes New Zealand a step closer to affordable energy.
"We only need to look over the ditch at Australia- their standard of living is proof of what can be achieved if countries utilise resources to create jobs and abundant, low-cost and resilient energy."
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The Council of Trade Unions are defending their ad attack on National's leader.
Their billboards and newspaper ads call Chris Luxon 'out of touch' and 'too much risk'.
National's campaign chair Chris Bishop is accusing Labour of being behind it, but the CTU president says they're not in cahoots with Labour.
President Richard Wagstaff says it's their job to call out someone who's 'going after working people'.
"He's the leader, the buck stops with him. He's put out a set of policies that will undermine working people- it's our job to call him out."
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The Finance Minister is defending the CTU's controversial attack ad, claiming it's a technique favoured by both sides.
Billboards and newspaper ads from the Council of Trade Unions describe Chris Luxon as 'out of touch' and 'too much risk'.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson says it's the CTU's right to highlight relevant issues in a democratic society.
"And they wouldn't be alone in doing that, the Taxpayers' Union have done numerous screengrabs of me, unflattering photos- and they're a surrogate of National and the ACT Party."
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Every Monday until the election The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis.
The attack ads are already being published, with the CTU going after Chris Luxon on the front page of the Herald and on billboards across the country. Could this be the most negative campaign in recent memory? Is going negative an effective strategy?
All eyes this weekend were on Labour and National’s campaign launches – who had the better launch? And was it better for Chris Luxon to use his family, or for Chris Hipkins to involve former Prime Minister Helen Clark?
Labour has pledged to extend free dental care to those 29 and under by 2026. Is that good policy? Is it better than the pledge to slash GST off fruit and veg?
The campaign is already getting distracted by protests – should we get used to this over the coming weeks?
And the panel discuss what they think the main themes for Election 2023 will be.
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So we're off and running with an election 40-odd days away and both parties promising the world.
Labour is out of the gate with their policy of free dental care for the under 30s.
A policy they, themselves, said was unachievable just a month ago. A policy that needs more dentists, but we only train 60 a year and it takes 6 years for them to be in the workforce. Everything is against this policy and Labour knows it, which is why they won't even try to do it until 2026, and only if they get back in.
It's almost as if Labour doesn't get what's driven the electorate off them over the past 3 years. Pie in the sky word salads that are barely possible if not impossible. They were given an incredible mandate just to repair what pandemic lockdowns did to us but instead, they started chasing unicorns.
My pet peeve is the Light Rail that might bother some shop owners, so they thought- let's just stick it underground at eye-watering cost. And you want us to take you seriously.
To win, National just needs to seem capable and the first reactions to their near $15 billion in tax cuts seemed favourable. But that is waning.
On Friday, Matthew Hooten rubbished it and called it cynical. On Saturday, tax experts said it breaks tax treaties overseas. On Sunday, even Heather du Plessis-Allan was saying the foreign house buyers sales tax figures were ludicrous, and they are.
Nearly $900 million of tax cuts are dependent on foreign buyers suddenly buying half of all the $2 million dollar plus houses available. It's starting to have that "made up a month ago and costed on the back of an envelope" feel.
Meanwhile, a question they've never answered is whether spraying nearly $15 billion into the money market will be inflationary. So tax cuts are inflationary because they increase the money supply the same way money printing and borrowing does. They need to be timed very carefully.
The only way they would not be inflationary is if you reduce Government spending by the amount you're giving back in tax cuts so that spending is net zero. But they're not doing that, which is why they've invented the foreign buyer tax and casino tax.
And the other problem is productivity. We're running at nearly full capacity. Look at our participation rates and particularly the food price index. There's no room for job growth to drive prices lower. Meanwhile, giving the people more money means you give the people the ability to afford higher tomato prices and inflation carries on and becomes embedded even if you do slash Government spending.
National is running on the promise of being prudent financial managers. A prudent manager would bring in the bracket changes when inflation has abated. But they're not.
To that end, National shows themselves to be just as hostage to ideology as Labour is. Just promise tax cuts. it always works.
A letter to the editor on Sunday called National and Labour Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dumber, and said give your vote to someone else. However, the other parties seem like Tweedle-Dumbest.
So as I've been saying all year. New Zealand deserves some smart leadership but no one is offering it.
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I seriously doubt that many of the promises being made by Labour and National will ever see the light of day.
The minor parties are promising things too. But it’s Labour and National I’m focused on because it’s going to be either one of those parties that leads the next Government.
The latest major party policy came out at the weekend with Labour’s promise to extend publicly-funded dental care to people under-30.
At the moment, there's no charge to go to dentist up to the age of 18. On Saturday, Chris Hipkins announced that, if Labour gets back in after next month’s election, that will be extended.
But it wouldn’t happen overnight. It would be two-to-three years away. And it would only be months out from the 2026 election when we’d have free dental for everyone under the age of 30.
But I’ll only believe it when I see it, for a couple of reasons.
First of all, where are all the extra dentists going to come from? I know Labour is saying that’s the reason why it wants to do all this on a drip-feed. Because the whole idea behind this policy is to get more people going to the dentist.
So, in theory, demand for dental services is going to increase. And I’m not convinced that we are going to have enough dentists and dental technicians and all that in two-to-three years.
The other reason I’ll only believe Labour’s dental policy when I see it, is the amount of water to go under the bridge between now and July 2026. Nearly three years away.
Who knows what re-prioritisation of spending might be needed by then?
Not to mention the fact that we are very good at forgetting things, aren’t we? Do you honestly believe that you’d be able to remember this particular policy three years from now? Come on - be honest. Of course, you wouldn’t. Just like so many of the other pre-election promises.
And what about one of Labour’s other big promises? GST off fruit and veges policy. Even if Labour gets re-elected and that one actually happens, I still won’t believe it because we are never going to know whether it’s making us better-off or not.
When we’re in the fruit and vege section at the supermarket, for example, it would be impossible to tell whether the price on the ticket is 15 percent less than what it would be if we were paying GST.
Prices fluctuate and the whole thing would be reliant on supermarkets and other fruit and vege retailers resisting the urge to charge more, for the sake of it.
So that’s a couple of examples of policies we’ve heard from Labour where either I don’t have confidence in them actually delivering, or delivering and it being impossible to know whether I’m getting any benefit out of it.
Then there’s National. Its most-recent promise was its tax plan which would us paying less tax by July next year.
But, since its announcement last week, more and more questions have been raised about some of the numbers behind the plan.
Especially this issue with $700 million that supposedly would come through the door and into the Government’s coffers from foreign house buyers, via a 15 percent tax for the privilege of buying a place here.
I was very sceptical of that part of the plan right from the start. Because it is 100 percent dependent on the choices of other people.
A Government has no control over whether a person has an interest in moving to New Zealand and buying a house. And, over the weekend, we heard more and more people questioning the assumptions that National has made on that front.
Either way, I reckon voters must be getting so punch-drunk with all the policies coming at us left, right and centre, that we are going to forget a lot of them. And whoever gets into Government will take full advantage of that.
Not to mention the fact that some policies will fall completely by the wayside because the governing party will realise that they way over-promised and they will (undoubtedly) under-deliver.
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So Labour and National kicked off their respective campaigns over the weekend to Labour's big wizz-bang attention-getter was the promise of free dental care for under 30s, but not until 2026.
National, having already announced 37 different policies, decided to stick to a pledge card detailing the party's eight main commitments, if and when elected. Both took potshots at one another over the weekend, Hipkins said that National's tax plan was sneaky.
He questioned the costings and he said National are people who want to win the election, whatever it takes and bugger the cost. Talk about pot calling the kettle black there.
Luxon fired back at Hipkins saying power doesn't concede easily and Labour's campaign was one of fear and disinformation.
Certainly, the CTU's gone all out with the attack ads. If you see the cover of this morning's Herald newspaper, it's pretty much a rich prick assault on the leader of the National Party with the ad they've taken out.
Still, that's democracy.
And if Citizens and Ratepayers decided to put something out about Hipkins' inability to be an effective Prime Minister, then I'm quite sure the Herald would take the money and wrap the ad around the newspaper.
You've got to survive in the media, you gotta take the ads. I did think Hipkins' whatever the cost comment was a bit rich, given that Labour's committed to free dental health care for under 30s, a policy Labour’s considered before, but did the numbers and said it was too expensive and unworkable.
And while the Labour Party luvvies got terribly excited about the announcement, it won't be rolled out until the next election. Health Minister Ayesha Verrall was on with Mike Hosking this morning and says the free dental rollout will take until the next election because of staffing.
So much to unpack from that. For a start, we've got the mental health system that's seen a million people. Has it? Has it really, Ayesha?
And this would be the same mental health system where mental health workers at Capital Coast and Hutt Valley say that they're at their wit's end, the system is in crisis, we're overwhelmed. It's an increasingly unsafe mental health public system. We have a desperate shortage of skilled and experienced clinicians.
That would be that mental health service would it Ayesha? That one. Because it doesn't sound like it's coping terribly well.
It sounds like the staff themselves are about to have mental breakdowns because of the pressure that they're under. The unworkable conditions that they're having to work under. So there's that.
And then we've got the dental service, the free dental care to under 30s that has been dismissed by Labour before as expensive and unworkable.
There was a story about a dentist in the Weekend Herald whose kids can't get into dentistry school despite their A+ pluses, and he's packed a stroppy, rich guy sad and said my children want to be dentists and I want to give my dentist clinic to them and they can’t get into Otago.
And so Ayesha Verrall was asked why there are only 60 places offered at the University of Otago, when you get more than 500 applying every year. And she said it's very expensive, it's specialised and high cost to deliver dentistry training. And then she said there is a relatively small labour market in New Zealand for graduates.
So she's basically saying we only need 60, so this vision of universal free healthcare for under 30s must have been a relatively recent vision. Because how in the name of all that is holy are 60 new dentists going to be able to deal with the expected influx of people wanting their fangs checked?
You've also got Labour and Chris Hipkins telling the Newsroom media website last month, so not even 30 days ago, he said the health system doesn't have the capacity to deliver free dental care for all, and there would likely be a significant investment required just in order to build capacity, to meet the need for additional dental care.
So last month we didn't have the capacity in the health system to deliver universal dental care. So less than 30 days later, all of a sudden, we finesse it by saying, okay, it's gonna be for the end of 30s and it’s not going to start until 2026.
Newsroom went back to him and said, how can you do this? And he said, well, every election you have a different set of priorities.
And he said it won't be too little too late, even though it takes 6 years to train a dentist and the first tranche, won't be funded till May of next year. I mean, they're basically saying whatever it takes to get votes and we shouldn't be surprised because it's an election campaign. But can they just be even a little bit clever about it?
Last month we didn't have the capacity for universal dental care. This month we do. Because the polls say it would be a good thing. I still think the most egregious turnaround and absolute disposal of any morals and principles was when Hipkins and Kelvin Davis announced they'd build two youth prisons when they realised how badly they'd lost the room when it came to law and order.
And this despite the fact it goes against everything they believe in. But they announced they'll build 2 youth prisons, no start date. But they just say it, because they realize they're losing the room on law and order.
Sacrificing everything they believe in. Just to try and get up in the polls. This universal dental plan for under 30s comes pretty close to that egregious turnaround. Labour reckons National wants to win the election quote, whatever it takes and bugger the cost.
Really, Chris Hipkins? National weren't the ones spraying around expensive, unrealistic and unachievable promises over the weekend.
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I suppose, officially, it's all underway.
Parliament has finished and the two major parties have kicked off their campaigns.
So far it is sooo depressing.
New Zealand First over the weekend promised, in a “made it up on the spot” sort of way, to compensate the vaccine injured and the vaccine mandated. How they would do that, I don’t know.
It will never come to pass because they need to get 5 percent, be on the right side of the ledger in terms of Government and then even if they were involved in some sort of arrangement, get that policy across the line, which of course would never happen.
So, once again, it's a depressing outworking of MMP, where minor players get to say anything with no real accountability.
Other minor players, like the clowns who protested at Labour's and National's launches, get to make dicks of themselves by yelling and screaming and generally looking uncouth and out of control.
But none of that is as bad or as depressing as watching a desperate Labour party reach into their grab bag of fantasy promises and tell us that free dentistry is coming, when no such thing can happen.
I think I am right in saying that I can't remember, in any election campaign, a promise of this sort being made that would not be delivered for so many years.
Here we are in 2023, about to vote, and the latter part of Labour's free dentistry doesn’t arrive until we are about to vote in the following election. A whole election later, a whole term of Government passes before what they promised gets delivered.
That’s before you get to the real problem - not only is it years away, it's promised by the KiwiBuild and light rail and cycle bridge specialists, the people who make announcements and that’s the last you ever hear of it.
We all get roads and highways and bridges are multi-year projects.
But dentistry? How far out from the present does an election promise have to be before it becomes little more than fantasy?
That’s how bad it has got. Desperation from a broke Government, mad ramblings from a geriatric, fringe player, yelling and screaming from conspiratorialists and revengeful sideliners.
This is all at a time when most of us, I hope I speak for the majority, are actually interested in sorting this place out, getting a bit of professionalism and aspiration back, getting the old New Zealand back and having a bit of a rockstar economy as a reward for hard work.
Remember any of that? Or are we all just down in the mud with the tragics and attention seekers looking to be the loudest bottom dweller?
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Labour's number two Kelvin Davis is getting strong backing for the job of Deputy Prime Minister, even from those in other political parties.
The Māori Party's Rawiri Waititi, who has very likely secured the party's comeback seat in Parliament, says he would expect "nothing less" than for Davis to be appointed Deputy Prime Minister.
Speaking of the wider Labour caucus, he says Māoridom will be expecting nothing less than for those MPs to get senior ministerial roles inside Cabinet.
"As te iwi Māori, they brought a huge contribution to the whole make-up of Labour and I commend them for that," he said.
"It is testament to the hard work they put in."
Davis wouldn't be drawn to an answer when asked about whether he's pushing for the deputy PM role.
"Those decisions are yet to be made," he told the Herald today.
"Ultimately, the Prime Minister will make the call. Her and I will have a discussion, but I'm not going to make a call or announcement right now."
Davis said the party was feeling "pretty upbeat" and proud after its landslide win.
Davis has his eyes on retaining the Corrections portfolio.
"I'd love to, if the Prime Minister allows it, to be the Minister of Corrections. We've got work to do still to improve outcomes in the justice sector for Māori. Māori education is still my big passion and the reason I entered politics."
Another win for Labour is the high number of Māori MPs - 15.
Davis says to have won so many Māori seats is "absolutely fantastic".
"It just shows that Māori have a voice in the Labour Party, with 15 Māori MPs representing the interests and needs of Māoridom," he says.
"It's wonderful to see the likes of Shanan Halbert win a general seat, as well as Jo Luxton, Kiritapu Allan, and Arena Williams. We're very proud of our efforts."
Davis says Labour's landslide win shows that people are "sick of the negative and nasty politics"."They like what the Labour party are offering; kindness, compassion, seeing those attributes as strength. I think the country is just looking for something different to what we've experienced over the previous decades."
Davis says he'd like to see the Government "up the number of partnerships" with Māori groups.
"With hapū, with iwi, to hear what their aspirations are, and to pull the lever as a Government and make those aspirations a reality."
He also has plans lined up to support kohanga reo, kura kaupapa and the wānanga.
Oranga Tamariki, housing and meth are also key issues.
"The cost of living, putting bread and butter on people's tables. We do have a recovery plan. We've already started rolling it out. People saw that we are a strong and stable Government and that we have a plan, and that's really a big part of the reason why we had such an emphatic victory on Saturday."
On his election night speech to introduce Jacinda Ardern - which turned out to be a rhyming speech attacking the National Party - Davis said he was "playing to the audience".
"As I've said, all the material was provided by the National Party. I was simply just holding a mirror up to everything that they had said, and their words and actions of the last six months."
Davis won the Te Tai Tokerau seat from Hone Harawira in 2014 and kept the seat this election in a battle against Māori Party candidate Mariameno Kapa-Kingi.
Former Labour Māori Affairs Minister Dover Samuels says he expected Kelvin Davis to become deputy Prime Minister, making the current Te Tai Tokerau MP the first Māori electorate representative to hold the role.
"I think this is an unprecedented mandate for Māori. I've never seen anything like it and I would expect Kelvin to be appointed the role."
Samuels, who was a Labour MP from 1996 to 2008 and held the Te Tai Tokerau seat for two terms, said with 15 Māori MPs he had never seen so much political representation in a single party for Māori.
He said the election had provided an "unprecedented opportunity to really deliver for Māori".
"Clearly Māoridom will be expecting a lot from them."
With W...
In this Spotlight on Wellington special, Georgina Campbell and Katrina Bennett dissect some of the more interesting results from the Wellington electorates, and discuss what they mean for the likes of Let's Get Wellington Moving, housing - and even the Johnsonville Mall.
Wellington has voted overwhelmingly in support of Labour - the whole lower North Island has turned red.
Stand-outs include Otaki where Labour newcomer Terisa in-go-be ousted National's Tim Costley - Wairarapa where Labour's Kieran McAnulty was victorious - and of course, Hutt South, one of the closest battles in the country, with Labour's Ginny Andersen wresting it from National's Chris Bishop.
Anderson and Bishop join them to discuss the results, alongside Ōhāriu’s MP Greg O’Connor.
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The pressure is on Jacinda Ardern to make use of her new mandate to affect real change.
Labour has secured 49.1 percent of the vote in last night's election - with National on 26.8 percent, Act on eight percent and the Greens on 7.6 percent.
Political commentator Shane te Pou told Kerre McIvor there will be huge expectations on Ardern, now that she isn't reliant on New Zealand First.
"If a party is given a mandate like this, it needs to use it, otherwise there is no point to it."
Political commentator Clare de Lore told Kerre McIvor Judith Collins will need to step down, and National will need to reshuffle from the top down.
She says Collins has been handed an almost inevitable defeat, and the party needs to start again.
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NZ First leader Winston Peters has thanked voters, volunteers and NZ First staff around New Zealand at the Duke of Marlborough in Russell.
"Ladies and Gentleman elections are bout democracy and what the people wish and we should never stop trusting the people," he said.
"We committed ourselves three year ago to be a constructive partner with government.
"To provide certainty and stability in a fast-changing world.
"To those who have been successful tonight - our congratulations," he said.
"For 27 years, there has been one party which has been prepared to challenge the establishment.
"As for the next challenge, we'll all have to wait and see," he said.
NZ First MP Shane Jones said the results of tonight would be the "fruits of democracy" however the night ended for the party.
But he added that it should be said he and NZ First has stuck to its promise to the regions of the country, pumping investment into areas long neglected.
"No one will ever say of the last three years that NZ First and Shane Jones, for the North and the provinces, did not deliver.
"Northland, sadly, had been neglected for a long period of time."
The country's "unapologetic Māori voice" is returning to Parliament with Rawiri Waititi wresting the Waiariki seat off Labour's Tāmati Coffey.
"The people have spoken and I am absolutely overwhelmed that they have put their trust in me to represent them for the next parliamentary term," Waititi said.
"I cannot thank them enough for having the belief in us as te iwi Māori to champion our own mana motuhake and to return our authentically and proud Māori voice to Parliament, ka nui te mihi aroha e te Waiariki."
Speaking at his election night party in Tāmaki Makaurau co-leader John Tamihere called the return of the party, eliminated at the 2017 election, an "incredible outcome".
"This is rewriting the political history of our country," Tamihere said, as the roughly 200 supporters gathered at Et Tu Bistro in Te Atatu erupted into chants of "Māori Party".
But it was a bittersweet moment for Tamihere, losing Tāmaki Makaurau to incumbent Peeni Henare of Labour.
"I want to mihi Peeni and his whānau, for the way he conducted his campaign," Tamihere said.
He thanked Māori Party supporters in the Waiariki electorate, and for voters listening to their calls to split the Māori vote, giving the Māori Party the electorate vote and their party vote to Labour, whose Māori MPs, including Coffey, would all get in on the list anyway.
There was also a chance of the party getting another MP with their party vote hovering around 1 per cent and potentially rising, meaning number one on the list Debbie Ngarewa-Packer could enter Parliament for the first time.
"I think there is a very strong possibility Debbie will get in too," Tamihere said.
Asked how he felt about the fact, sitting at seven on the list, he wouldn't be joining them, Tamihere said he wasn't disappointed, and it was his duty as a co-leader to stand behind them.
It wasn't over though for Tamihere, signalling another run in 2023.
"Next time around it will be all seven [seats]," he said, again to a huge reception.
The fate of the Māori Party sat on a knife's edge all election night.
The closest seats, as predicted, were in Tāmaki Makaurau, Waiariki and Te Tai Hauāuru, with Labour's leads over Māori Party in the mere hundreds in each for much of the night.
In Te Tai Hauāuru co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer lost to Labour's Adrian Rurawhe.
Labour won the four other Māori electorates.
The 2020 election saw the Māori Party launch a fighting campaign.
The 2017 election resulted in a tumultuous shift in Māori politics, with all seven Māori seats going to Labour candidates.
It eliminated the Māori Party after nine years in Government alongside National, ending the careers of stalwarts Marama Fox and Te Ururoa Flavell, defeated by the very party they were established in protest against, following the Foreshore and Seabed debacle.
But despite being outside the Beehive, the party remained active and vocal in its criticism of Government actions and outcomes for Māori.
Jacinda Ardern's Labour-led Government ushered in a record number of Māori MPs, making up about 23 per cent of representatives, despite making up only 16 per cent of the population.
Yet despite this, Māori remained at the bottom rung for most outcomes, including health, education, and housing, much of it fuelled by persistent inequality and racism, and leaving the door open for an independent Māori voice.
The party had a refresh, appointing new leaders in former Labour MP and Cabinet member Tamihere, and Ngarewa-Packer, a Ngāti Ruanui iwi leader.
The pair brought their own unique flair to their roles, with Manurewa Marae chairman and party member Rangi McLean once referring to Ngarewa-Packer as providing "balance" to Tamihere, whom he called a "taniwha", who is infamously not shy of political controversy and/or outright offence.
Its wider membership were also proactive over the past few years in raising issues at Oranga Tamariki and the disproportionate uplifting of Māori babies from their young mothers.
For his own part Waititi w...
Sir Cullen Michael says Labour's historic victory is a green light for much needed changes in climate action and transport infrastructure.
But it is not a mandate for a lurch to the left in terms of tax or welfare reform, and any attempt to do so quickly could risk "middle-ground voters jumping off a cliff", the former Finance Minister told the Herald.
Last night Labour secured a parliamentary majority with 64 seats, the party's best result under MMP and its strongest showing since 1946, when Labour won 51 per cent of the party vote.
National plunged to 26.8 per cent, its second-worst result ever, with 2002 being its only worse result.
He said Labour played a "very safe" campaign, including its tax policy that would only affect 2 per cent of income earners.
"I can understand their nervousness ... but without additional revenue, and given the Covid-19 flow-on, they are somewhat restricted.
"We're locked into programme for three years in terms of tax generally. Its more immediate problem is that any feasible tax programme is going to have a very minor bearing on the size of deficits in the next three years.
"I do have to admit that one or two points I was worried they were being too safe. But in the end, that paid off and allowed Jacinda to project that image of competence, combined with kindness, and an occasional spark of severity when dealing with Judith Collins."
He said Labour had a strong mandate on climate change action, transport infrastructure and tackling poverty, though on the latter he agreed with Ardern that lasting change came in increments rather than in leaps and bounds.
"Jacinda has a mandate for some quite significant change, but in areas like the welfare system and poverty, it is a matter of progressive change over a period of years."
Cullen said National voters had shifted to Labour over the Government's successful Covid response and, to a much lesser degree, to strengthen Labour's hand against Green influence.
"And there were definitely Labour people who were worried the Greens might not make the 5 per cent threshold and who switched their party vote to ensure that happened."
He noted National's issues with leadership changes and campaign bungles including caucus leaks and signs of disunity.
"People were disillusioned with National. It was a bit like 2002, when National got a lot less than in the polls as people gave up on them. Clearly a lot of National people voted Act this time."
NZ First leader Winston Peters also played the wrong hand in criticising "wokeness" and "pixie dust", he said.
"Winston spent two or three weeks attacking Labour, and attacking Jacinda in code-language.
"He should have been making more of what NZ First had done positively, sort of hugging Jacinda close to him in the same way James Shaw did. Shaw seemed to be getting as close to Jacinda under the umbrella as he could."
His advice to Peters?
"Retire. Imagine him coming back at 78 next time around. What as? The grumpy old vote is almost by definition declining, despite the fact the population is getting older, and his time has passed."
He said the Greens should be careful about getting into a coalition arrangement, nothing how poorly minor parties have fared in the past, including the fate of NZ First in 2008 and in 2020.
"Think very carefully before getting too closely locked in to the web of government. The history of minor parties who do that, if and when the Government starts to get a little unpopular, is not encouraging.
"The minor parties have a real struggle coping with the stresses and responsibility for decisions that aren't popular with everybody. We've had a variety of loose arrangements under MMP, and the looser the better.
"They can still have an influence, but that will be limited anyway because ultimately they don't have the votes to stop Labour from doing anything."
A former National Finance Minister believes many of those who voted for Labour - will have been holding their noses as they did so.
Steven Joyce told Kerre McIvor he believes a lot of people voted strategically.
"With the discussions around the wealth taxes the past few weeks, I knew some people who are normally National voters saying they will vote for Labour, just to keep the Greens out."
Joyce congratulated Labour on a historic win and said Ardern could be proud of her campaign.
On Winston Peters losing and leaving Parliament, Joyce says politics is a cruel business.
"I feel for everybody losing their seats," he said, adding it was always better to go on your own choosing.
LISTEN ABOVE
Chloe Swarbrick says it's phenomenal to have won Auckland Central.
Special votes haven't been counted but she's leading by 500 votes.
Swarbrick told Kerre McIvor she doesn't want to count her chickens before they hatch, but says it was a very good night.
"When you give every fibre of your being to something, we built up a massive campaign and did things everyone ruled out."
Swarbrick says everyone thought it was impossible but she made it across the line.
LISTEN ABOVE
Act expects to have power in Parliament - even on the opposition benches.
The party is set to go from one MP to ten, after winning Epsom and soaking up eight percent of the party vote.
Leader David Seymour says the defeat of the right overall is disappointing.
But he told Kerre McIvor Act have proven they can still influence government policy from the opposition.
"Labour said they were going to introduce hate speech laws, Act really led a campaign against that.
"We played an honourably role of protecting freedom of speech."
LISTEN ABOVE
National's Gerry Brownlee has revealed he's considering his position in the party, after last night's devastating election result.
It's ended up with just 26.8 percent of the party vote, meaning 19 MPs are out of a job.
Brownlee told Kerre McIvor he'll be taking a couple of days to think about his future with the party.
"I'll be speaking to colleagues before making a decision. The party will hold discussions, to assess what went wrong."
Brownlee believes National ran a very good on-the-ground campaign, but the Covid 19 pandemic created a "herding" instinct behind the incumbent government.
Brownlee took over as campaign chair in July and has been a National MP for almost 25 years.
He entered Parliament in 1996, winning the Christchurch seat of Ilam and has held it ever since.
But last night, he lost it by more than 2000 votes.
LISTEN ABOVE
Judith Collins has admitted National never expected to win the election.
She's spoken to Newstalk ZB's Kerre McIvor, in her first interview since last night's historic loss.
She says she has no plans to step down.
Collins says the loss is devastating, but it was almost inevitable.
She felt devastated for her MPs, and the fact the party vote wasn't high enough.
LISTEN ABOVE
Greens co-leader James Shaw remains hopeful of being part of the next Labour government.
He told Kerre McIvor while Labour doesn't have to include them, there's a good chance they will.
“I guess the question is, what sort of government do they want?
“Jacinda is a consensus builder, she wants to build a broader coalition as possible.”
At this stage, Labour has enough votes to govern alone.
But James Shaw says Labour would want to have as large a majority in the House as possible.
"That affects things like the select committee, we have got some really experienced ministers will specialist experience, who will also be wanting to think about 2023 as well."
LISTEN ABOVE
Labour's Grant Robertson is over the moon with last night's election result.
The finance spokesman told Kerre McIvor you never take anything for granted, and he's humbled by the support the party's had.
"I've spent a lot of time travelling around New Zealand the past few weeks. I really felt that on the ground, people were supporting us."
Robertson is confident the party would have won the election - even without the Covid-19 pandemic.
He says the Government's been re-elected on the back of a strong first term performance.
"We managed the economy well, we were rebuilding public services, along with making sure we were laying the platform for the big infrastructure boost we needed."
LISTEN ABOVE
Former Prime Minster Helen Clarke has described a spectacular victory for Jacinda Ardern and the Labour Party in the 2020 General Election.
With a little over 90 per cent of votes counted, Labour sit on 49 per cent with National far behind on 27. As it stands Labour can govern alone, not needing the Greens to return to Parliament.
It will keep Ms Ardern around as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Ms Clarke told Mike Hosking and Barry Soper the Covid-19 pandemic played a big part in the party's sizeable victory.
"I think it's a question of who do you think you're going to feel safest with in this very uncertain time, and I think Jacinda's been seen to put people's health and well-being right up there."
Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick is set to win the Auckland central seat in what has been a tight race with Labour's Helen White.
Swarbrick has had the edge since vote counting started for the 2020 election tonight, with White in second and National's Emma Mellow over 1,000 votes back.
Greens co-leader James Shaw told Mike Hosking and Barry Soper Swarbrick's victory is historical.
"No third party candidate has won an election seat without the endorsement of a major party leader, and it looks like Chloe has won Auckland central and that would defy history."
Mr Shaw addressed Green Party supporters, saying throughout the campaign, he’s been reminded why the party does what it does.
He says the party’s aim is to create a vision for every person in New Zealand - that they have what they need to have a meaningful life.
With a little over 80 per cent of votes counted, the Greens were sitting pretty on 7.6 per cent.
It is turning out to be a horror 2020 election for the National Party, who continue to trail Labour by a substantial amount.
National is slipping far behind in tonight's polling at 27 per cent, compared to around 50 per cent for Labour at the mid-way point of vote counting.
Finance Spokesperson Paul Goldsmith told Mike Hosking and Barry Soper they were hoping for better results.
"We haven't helped ourselves by making a few mistakes and with a bit of disunity at times, and the voters punished that very vigorously."
Meanwhile the Green Party continue to bathe in a strong election night.
The party are sitting around 7.8 per cent, only slightly behind Act.
Meanwhile Labour's Jo Luxon leads the race in the Rangitata electorate, ahead of National's Megan Hands.
Ms Luxon says they are "really excited" by the results.
"It's been an amazing campaign, I've had the most amazing team... I've worked damn hard over the last three years.
"It's a really good feel here tonight."
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National MP for Hutt South Chris Bishop has fallen behind Labour's Ginny Andersen, and admits his night is riddled with nerves.
"At one point in the last campaign I was down by 2,000 and I ended up wining it by 2,000... so bit of a nervous one last time I think it will be the same this time.
"Doable, but look it's going to be a nervous night and I'm pretty nervous."
Bishop says Judith Collins had taken on the party's leadership in "trying circumstances" but had run a good campaign.
He said tonight was not the time to start a debate on the future of the party.
"There will be plenty of time for discussion on that."
National remain on around 26 per cent with labour sitting comfortable in the early 50's, with just under 40 per cent of votes counted.
Sitting National Rodney MP Mark Mitchell looks set to retain his seat, but said he was hugely disappointed by what the polls were saying.
Mitchell told NZME there was no way he had "anticipated" what was coming through in the vote count. He said he felt for the party's "volunteers and supporters" who had given their all for the party.
"You can't argue there is not a swing, but people just do not want a swing."
He said losing up to 20 MPs was "devastating . . . it is going to be very tough"
He said National would focus on turning things around.
"I don't think you can blame Judith for this".
He said there had been "major disruption" in the party due to a series of leadership changes. Those issues were never gotten on top of.
Listen above as Matt King and Act's Nicole McKee also join Mike Hosking and Barry Soper
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There is little activity going on at the National Party headquarters at the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron.
National is currently sitting around 26 per cent, trailing Labour by some distance who are sitting roughly at 51 per cent, with just over 30 per cent of votes counted.
Newstalk ZB political reporter Aaron Dahmen describes the environment as mellow.
"We weren't expecting a party, but this is a subdued affair. There's nothing sweet about this in fact the sweetest thing about this is probably the macaroons with the National Party logos that are out in the cafeteria."
Meanwhile, a political commentator is calling National's election campaign a disaster.
Former Labour Chief of Staff Neale Jones is predicting the National Party's downfall.
He says the party had a budget that did not add up, and were caught planting supporters in the crowd on the campaign trail.
Neale Jones says Labour looked like they had the pandemic under control while National looked like a shambles - and nobody wants to hand a crisis over to a shambles.
Potential new Auckland Central MP, the Green Party's Chloe Swarbrick told Mike Hosking he was thrilled, but it was "early days still".
Swarbrick said the Green Party had "thrown everything" at a local campaign.
She said it was "exciting times we are in the race" with about 60 per cent of the vote still to be counted.
She put the current result "down to campaigning, and campaigning works". That included doorknocking right throughout the Auckland Central electorate.
"We are stoked. But again, still early days," Swarbrick said.
She said tonight's result could be "historic" for the Green Party.
When asked if she thought the Green Party would be invited to join a coalition with Labour even if Labour had a clear majority, she said that would be "an interesting one". She said it was "far too early" to elaborate further.
Listen above as Labour's Grant Robertson and Stuart Nash join Mike Hosking and Barry Soper as well
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Despite not even half of votes counted for the 2020 election, Labour are looking strong with the possibility of being able to govern alone.
As it stands the main party in the current coalition Government are ranging around 50 per cent, with National way down on roughly 26.
Senior Labour MP David Parker told Mike Hosking and Barry Soper he is thrilled with how election night was playing out to date.
He said he was keeping a close eye on some of the "electorate battles", including Nelson which could be won be turning Labour.
Meanwhile, New Zealand Herald reporter David Fisher is at New Zealand First's function in Russell, and says the sun may possibly go down on the party tonight.
"The celebration for New Zealand first was planned to happen on the deck of the Duke of Marlborough, [but] there haven't been too many cheers coming from that deck tonight."
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The early votes counted suggest the Labour Party could govern alone, and National are heading for a huge defeat this election.
As it stands Labour are hovering around 50 per cent, while the Opposition are sitting around 26.
The greens and Act are not far off, at roughly 8 and 7 per cent respectively.
National deputy leader and campaign manager Gerry Brownlee told Mike Hosking and Barry Soper it was a campaign hampered by Covid.
"You've got got take some responsibility I suppose but I think Judith ran an incredible campaign. Overwhelmingly it was the response to the Covid lockdown and the great position that New Zealand ended up in that was at play here."
Mr Brownlee adds they are not conceding this election just yet,
National president Peter Goodfellow agrees with his deputy leader, saying this has been a Covid campaign.
"It's very hard to get any cut through, and certainly our whole ground game has been really affected over the last couple of months."
Mr Goodfellow adds it is unlikely they win from here.
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Votes are beginning to flood in for the 2020 election, and early signs are showing the Labour Party could govern alone.
Should they need help, Labour are set to turn to the Greens who are sitting strong in third behind the two major parties.
One of those in National are struggling for numbers, and could be set for an early defeat.
Act sit fourth, not far off what the Greens have garnered so far. Leader David Seymour told Mike Hosking and Barry Soper they as a party are very happy with the numbers.
"It must be about 15 times more votes than last time... also very grateful to my neighbours in the Epsom electorate who have put their trust in me again."
Act's entry into Government would be via a coalition with National. Mr Seymour concedes they are clearly second best right now.
"Overall I think it's a pity because I don't think our current policy settings, even our approach to Covid and our fiscal track are sustainable, but it appears we're going to have to be holding them accountable from the opposition benches rather than changing those settings.
"That's democracy, we respect the outcome of course."
Meanwhile Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis isn't reading into the early numbers, which suggest his party can govern alone.
Mr Davis says there is still a way to go yet, but it's a sign of their good work.
"I think everybody's after a stable, strong Government and that's what Jacinda Ardern has provided, but we won't count our chickens before they hatch.
A less than auspicious showing at National's election headquarters in Auckland’s Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron at this early stage of the night.
Early voting results have National well behind, with nearly less than half of Labour's support.
Political reporter Aaron Dahmen is there, and he told Mike Hosking that the atmosphere is sombre so far.
"There's not many people here to witness these results. You can hear a pin drop."
LISTEN ABOVE
The leader of the National Party's making a last-ditch plea to undecided voters ... to tick twice for blue.
Judith Collins told Kerre McIvor they should vote for her Party - because it understands the economy.
She says the Reserve Bank is predicting the worst economic times in 160 years.
Watch the video above.
There are just five days to go until Election Day, and things are heating up on the campaign trail!
Tune in today for the final Front Bench - Heather du Plessis-Allan, Barry Soper, Trish Sherson and Chris Carter thrash out the big political issues in the lead up to Vote 2020. There is no holding back, no topic off limits, and no rules in this rapid-fire, highly opinionated election podcast.
In today's topics, National has gone hard on the possibility of a wealth tax under a Labour-Green Government. Labour continues to say it is not going to happen, but Greens co-leader James Shaw says let's wait until after the election. Who should voters believe? Does it come down to whether or not we believe the Greens will just roll over in order to be in Government?
It appears National's position is dire. They are struggling in the popularity column, with a drop in the last Colmar Brunton poll. Add to that the controversy surrounding the Ponsonby walkabout and the Denise Lee email that was leaked, to name a few. How much of it is leader Judith Collins' fault? Is this as bad as it gets for her chances on Saturday?
New Zealand has just signed the first deal with a pharmaceutical company for a Covid-19 vaccine. The deal will give us access to 1.5 million vaccines from Pfizer and BioNTech, but it is an apparent move away from simply relying on the UN backed Covax-facility. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said in the past she is opposed to vaccine nationalism, but are we not doing exactly the same now? Does anybody think we shouldn't make our own deals - even at the expense of poorer countries?
Focus on the key issues facing Hutt South and Remutaka this election: Hear from Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce Chief Executive Helen Down and REINZ regional director Mark Coffey on what needs to be done to boost the economy, and address rising house prices and growing congestion in the Hutt Valley.
The Greens don't have a bottom line for forming a coalition in parliament.
Co-leader James Shaw reveals instead the party has six top priorities it's taking into this election.
He told Kerre McIvor those include income support, transport, housing, the marine environment, clean energy and the future of farming.
Shaw says they're not going to get everything they've laid out - but they want to make progress across all six packages.
Watch the video above
Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern joined Mike Hosking this morning for Newstalk ZB’s final Leaders Breakfast event of the 2020 election campaign.
Ardern yesterday laid out her vision for 2030, but her party will need to be re-elected if she hopes to achieve those goals.
Covid-19 response, Ihumātao, coalition partners, the economy and trade were all on the agenda in a wide-ranging, two hour interview.
COALITION PARTNERS
The first section of the interview focused on Labour potential coalition partners and their main policies.
Ardern said the Green Party's wealth tax was not Labour policy and it would not be part of any post-election negotiations. She said the major party forming a government should set the direction on tax policy.
"We have ruled it out. And I've done it multiple times."
Ardern also said she had not had any negotiations with other parties about possible ministerial portfolios, saying it was presumptuous.
Asked about any possible new taxes, Ardern said her party's "primary" proposals were a new top tax rate and a digital services tax.
Hosking said the most popular question for Ardern from listeners was about Ihumātao.
Ardern said just one person had raised it on the campaign trail.
She blamed the impasse over Ihumātao on MMP, saying that NZ First leader Winston Peters had prevented any progress at the site.
There was no secret deal, she said: "We have to find a way through."
The historic site near the airport in South Auckland was occupied by protestors last year who opposed a proposed development. Construction has been put off until an agreement can be made between the Government, various groups within the iwi, and the construction company Fletchers.
Ardern said her bottom line for the situation was that it could not "unravel" the Treaty process.
"Any gifting of land would be problematic in that regard."
THE ECONOMY
Ardern was next asked how long the government could keep supporting the tourism industry if the borders were going to be closed for an extended period.
She said the Government was backing strategic industries with one-off payments - such as Whale Watch in Kaikoura.
Asked how she would describe New Zealand's economic position, she cited a Bloomberg article which described New Zealand as one of the most attractive places to do business.
"[We are] well placed relative to others and that matters," she said.
"We have an opportunity here - not just because we have an open economy - we have an opportunity around investment."
FARMING AND FAIR PAY
Ardern said talk of an urban-rural divide came up every election and she did not believe it existed.
The Opposition had tried to promote the idea that farmers hated her Government.
She said Labour's approach to farming was adding value to an already valuable sector.
Ardern confirmed that the Government would try to progress fair pay agreements if it was re-elected, having been unable to do so this term because of coalition wrangling.
She said having sector-wide agreements were important to "avoid a race to the bottom".
When a firm was contracting for security services, contracts often went to companies which had the lowest standards and conditions - and the Government wanted to change this.
The agreements would not affect every workplace and were sector-specific, she said. There would be no strike action as a result of the agreements.
PIKE RIVER
Ardern stood by the recovery mission at the Pike River coal mine, despite rising costs and no discovery of remains.
"We have always known that there might be a chance that we might not find human remains," she said.
She said the Government owned it to the family to attempt a recovery. It would remove a question that had hung over families and the country for a decade, she said.
GANGS
Ardern said the large rise in the number of gang members could be traced back to 2011, and was not a The main factor was Australia's deportation of criminal and gang members to New Zealand, she said.
As well as increasing police numbe...
Focus on the Remutaka electorate: Hear from Green Party candidate Chris Norton, ACT candidate Grae O'Sullivan and NZ First candidate Talani Meikle on how they plan to address rising house prices, improve water management and boost the economy in Upper Hutt and surrounding suburbs.
David Seymour is predicting the demise of his own party.
The ACT leader told Mike Hosking it's only a matter of time until New Zealand reverts back to a two-party political system.
"In five elections time, the Greens will be gone, Act will make it for the next few elections but probably not forever, and we will be back to two parties."
LISTEN ABOVE OR WATCH THE VIDEO BELOW
The co-leader of the Green Party is disappointed he couldn't bring in a capital gains tax.
Jacinda Ardern has ruled out ever bringing in the tax during her time as Labour leader.
But James Shaw told Mike Hosking a wealth tax could be another option.
"I was irritated a few weeks back when people were claiming it's been ruled out.
"We have to have the election first and then sit down and have a conversation."
Asked about farming industry, James Shaw many people understand where the Greens are coming from.
He says there are major innovators, and others who are doing things the way they were done 100 years ago.
Shaw adds there are then those caught in the middle, just making ends meet.
LISTEN ABOVE
Winston Peters has rated the coalition Government's Covid-19 response an eight out of ten.
The New Zealand First leader told Mike Hosking the Government claimed to go early and hard against the virus.
“We went early but didn't go hard enough, and we should've brought in the military and implemented wider mask use.”
Winston Peters says stopping the capital gains tax was his proudest achievement of this electoral term.
The New Zealand First leaders says it was a silly idea.
"If anyone thinks a capital gains tax would be of any value to the NZ economy, then they don’t understand simple economics."
LISTEN ABOVE
Jason Pine hosts a Spotlight on Wellington Transport pre-election special with panelists Nick Leggett of the Road Transport Forum, Dr Caroline Shaw of Otago University's Department of Public Health, John Milford of Wellington Chamber of Commerce, and micromobility expert Oliver Bruce.
LISTEN ABOVE
Winston Peters say the next Government needs his Party's wisdom.
The New Zealand First leader says there's a huge drive to rebuild the economy after Covid-19.
But Peters says it wasn't performing as it should even before the pandemic.
He told Kerre McIvor other parties aren't up to scratch, and a stabilising and common sense voice is needed in Cabinet.
Watch the video above.
Focus on the Remutaka electorate: Hear from incumbent, Labour's Chris Hipkins, and National candidate Mark Crofskey on how they plan to address rising house prices and upgrade transport in Upper Hutt and surrounding suburbs.
Focus on the Hutt South electorate: Hear from minor party candidates Richard McIntosh (Green Party), Roger Earp (New Conservative Party), Ben Wylie-van Eerd (TOP), Andy Parkins (ACT), Wilf Bearman-Reidel (Outdoors Party) and Paris Winiata (VisionNZ) on the anticipated close race in Lower Hutt, and what they see as the most important issues for voters.
Heather du Plessis-Allan, Barry Soper, Trish Sherson and Chris Carter thrash out the big political issues in the lead up to Vote 2020. There's no holding back, no topic off limits, and no rules in this rapid-fire, highly opinionated election podcast.
National leader Judith Collins has gone to great lengths to make sure people understand she is a woman of faith. Things ramped up yesterday when Collins went to vote at a church, and was filmed and photographed kneeling down. Do you buy it? Has she made a conscious effort to advertise her Christianity, and if so why?
Did Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern politicise the Covid-19 announcement? All eyes were on the infamous 1pm press briefing again today, to see whether or not Auckland would join the rest of the country at alert level 1. Ardern is copping criticism for using the opportunity to criticise other party's border policies, as well as National's housing plan.
Let's take a break from our election here and jump across to America. President Donald Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis has completely thrown the US election up in the air. It is unclear how bad his health is right now, but he earlier described the journey as 'interesting'. How will this impact the election? And does it make him look even more careless than initially thought?
And early voting has started, and it is popular already. In the first two days of voting, 165,000 votes were cast, and early voting is expected to make up as much as 60% of the final vote. Why do you think it has become so popular?
WATCH ABOVE
National leader Judith Collins is being grilled on why her party should lead New Zealand through a pandemic and the economic fallout during the first of Newstalk ZB's Leaders Breakfasts today.
Mike Hosking will put the questions to Collins over two hours, starting from 7am.
Collins has used her extended interview to announce new policy - in the first 100 days of Government to launch an inquiry into Auckland Council - in particular council controlled organisations, including Auckland Transport and WaterCare.
"I have a particular beef with Auckland Transport, I just think it's destroyed the central city," said Collins, who criticised cycle lanes in her electorate and what she claimed was the organisation's desire to "make everything cycling or walking".
She also denied politicising her faith, after being photographed praying in a church yesterday: "We just happened to be voting in a church....the minister said, would you like to pop in and have a prayer?...I didn't invite the media in."
The National leader talked up the economic potential of oil and gas, saying "we have potential to be, basically, the North Sea in the south...there is enough there, according to the geologists...that's how places like Norway became so rich."
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will front next Monday, as she lays out her alternative vision for the country.
Is Collins politicising her faith?
The first question put to Collins by Hosking was whether she was politicising Christianity, after being photographed praying at St Thomas Church in Auckland yesterday, before casting an early vote.
Collins said she wasn't, and had been a Christian all her life.
"We just happened to be voting in a church....the minister said, would you like to pop in and have a prayer?...I didn't invite the media in."
Collins said she prayed for general guidance, rather than specifics. She prays once a day.
"It just happened to be that I was in a church...I was hardly going to turn it down."
On the border, Collins said National would have strong protective measures in place, and the current government didn't appear confident in safeguards.
Would Auckland be at level 1? "Obviously...the whole thing is getting to the stage where it just seems to be wallowing in Covid...it is causing immense hardship, economically and also stress level-wise for people."
Collins indicated Auckland had been in level 2 for too long, and said Taiwan, for example, had managed much better without lockdowns.
On Labour's announcement of wanting to look into supermarket and building supply prices, via market reviews done by the Commerce Commission, Collins said Labour had been talking about a supermarket inquiry for a long time.
The National leader said Emma Mellow had a very good shot at winning in Auckland Central - "it is a three horse race...we have momentum".
A "toxic" problem at Canterbury DHB, RMA reform and not being a "closed shop" to international students
On Canterbury DHB's huge deficits, Collins said the population in Canterbury had been underestimated in the past, and the whole situation was a "mess".
"The DHB and the Ministry currently have an absolutely toxic work relationship."
Both National and Labour have pledged to repeal and replace the Resource Management Act (RMA). Collins said it needed to be replaced by two pieces of legislation, one on planning and development, and another on environmental standards.
"There is an opportunity to cut through a lot of the red tape...it might upset a few really busy-body type people."
Should the borders be more open to international students? Collins said they had to be, given the importance to the economy. National would work with the universities and accommodation providers, with quarantine processes checked by officials.
We couldn't be a "closed shop".
"$5.1b industry...it is the flow-on effect for all the out years where students don't come back here."
National announces it would review Auckland Council
Collins announced new policy - in the fi...
Focus on the Hutt South electorate: Hear from sitting MP, National's Chris Bishop, and Labour candidate Ginny Andersen on the anticipated close race in Lower Hutt, and what they see as the most important issues for voters.
LISTEN ABOVE
Focus on the key issues facing the Ohariu and Mana electorates this election: Hear from former Wellington Mayor and Johnsonville local Justin Lester, former Porirua Mayor and Road Transport Forum boss Nick Leggett, and current Porirua Mayor Anita Baker on what needs to be done to address growing congestion on our roads, the housing shortage and child poverty.
An expert panel is tonight debating whether New Zealanders should be able to request help to end their lives.
Hosted by Newstalk ZB's Heather du Plessis-Allan, the panel features:
Wellington GP Dr Mary English
Professor Rod MacLeod of Hospice NZ
Stuart Armstrong, a terminal cancer patient
Dr John Bonning, an emergency medicine specialist from Waikato Hospital.
It comes ahead of the End of Life Choice referendum on October 17, which will determine whether assisted dying is legalised in New Zealand.
The panel first explained their positions on the referendum.
Armstrong said he wanted to have the choice to die on his own terms "when and where it suits me".
Rather than dying a "gnarly" death, he wanted to avoid it for his own sake and his family's.
He wanted to go out with a party by a bonfire rather than curled up on a hospital bed, he said.
English recalled a story from a fellow doctor, who was told by a patient that she wanted to die.
She said the patient's mother later revealed her daughter was in an abusive relationship and was being coerced into dying.
There were many families in a similar position, she said.
Asked what she would say to someone who would like to die, English said that needed to be balanced against the rights of vulnerable people like the elderly and disabled.
When it was pointed out that they were not eligible for euthanasia under the law, English said there was "no bright line".
Bonning said he was "pro-choice" and was focused on easing suffering. He respected the choices of euthanasia opponents, but took issue with those who wanted to control the lives of others, he said.
He wanted to dispel myths about euthanasia, including the false claim that suicides increased in places where euthanasia was legalised.
He added that assisted dying had worked "wonderfully" in Victoria and other places.
"There are 45 requirements in this [New Zealand] legislation. It is going to be the most rigorous in the world."
Macleod said he had practised palliative care for more than 30 years and he was yet to meet someone who he thought was better off dead.
How will it work?
The next segment of the debate focused on how the legislation would work.
Macleod said a person could take the oral dose of medicine themselves, or have it administered by a doctor.
It was difficult to know how long the drugs would take to work, he said.
"There is an assumption that euthanasia is like flicking a switch. But occasionally it takes longer, and there are reports from Oregon that it takes longer.
"It's not as simple as giving something a jab and they die."
Bonning said that in Victoria, most people took the lethal dose themselves.
There were many beautiful anecdotes from the Australian state, with people dying the way they want to. He recalled stories of people having a glass of port before saying farewell to their family.
He said there was no evidence of a slippery slope or of patients being coerced.
Improving palliative care in New Zealand would not prevent all suffering, he said. Palliative care needed to work hand-in-hand with an end of life choice system.
There was heated debate over whether the law included enough safeguards.
English said the legislation would allow an 18 year-old to die.
Armstrong said that if they were terminally ill and in unbearable suffering, that was acceptable.
They could vote, enlist in the army, and should be able to decide about their own death, he said.
English disagreed, saying that was incredibly hard on their families.
Macleod said under the proposed New Zealand law, patients would not have to talk to their family about assisted death.
"There are no witnesses to this act."
Bonning said it was a "unicorn" argument because so few people of that age requested euthanasia.
"There is not going to be a truckload of 18 year-olds [getting euthanasia]," he said.
The End of Life Choice Act would allow a person with a terminal illness to request assisted dying.
To be eligible, they would need approval from two doct...
Act Party leader David Seymour says being Deputy Prime Minister isn't out of the question - but it's unlikely.
During last night's second leaders' debate, National's Judith Collins said he'd be excellent in the role if her party won the election.
Seymour told Kerre McIvor it's not on his mind.
"Act has always been more focused on policies and what we can leave behind to make this a better place, than any particular job".
He says John Key offered him the opportunity to be a minister in the past, which he turned down.
"I thought, look there's the limo, a pay rise, the title and everything else but at the end of the day, there are lots of people who've been ministers and they can't point to something they've done for New Zealand".
"I'm really proud we got End of Life Choice across the line by me turning down being a minister and I'm pretty prepared to make that sort of decision again".
Seymour's meteoric rise in the 1News/Colmar Brunton poll this week put Act up to 8 per cent, 1 per cent above the Greens. It means the party would secure 10 seats in Parliament.
From a one-man band to potentially bringing nine other MPs back to Parliament with him, it could mean the biggest caucus for Act since 2002, when it had nine MPs under leader Richard Prebble.
Seymour is live on NewstalkZB with Kerre McIvor for an hour from 10.07am.
Seymour himself was at 2 per cent as preferred Prime Minister, ahead of Winston Peters' 2 per cent in the TVNZ poll.
National leader Judith Collins said this morning she'd have no problem appointing Seymour as Deputy PM should a National-Act alliance hit the 51 per cent party-vote mark on election day.
Collins told Mike Hosking this morning she thought Seymour would make an "excellent" Deputy Prime Minister in her government which was met with a "jeepers" from Jacinda Ardern during last night's MediaWorks leaders debate.
"David Seymour is a principled person in my experience and he and I have worked together before. I'd rather have him any day than what Miss Ardern has had," Collins said.
Sunday's Newshub Reid Research poll put Act up three points to 6.3, which would give the party eight seats in Parliament.
The stars have aligned for the party that's battled through successive leaders and scandals, to now be polling as the third-largest party behind National.
In the past the focus on Act, come election time, has been whether or not it would get the nod from National in Epsom - the electorate seat that's been the party's lifeline for a number of election cycles.
Seymour now mounts the argument he's able to secure that seat under his own steam.
Not only that, but Act, as one of the smaller parties, has been polling over the 5 per cent threshold in recent months, meaning the Epsom seat is a "good to have" for Seymour, but not as crucial for the party's survival.
The combination of Seymour's consistent and persistent campaign on the End of Life Choice Act, his sole opposition to the first tranche of firearms reforms and the woes of political ally National, mean Act is sitting pretty for the first time in two decades.
- Additional reporting, Jo Moir RNZ
Focus on the Mana electorate: Hear from minor party candidates Jan Logie (Green Party), Helen Cartwright (Integrity Party) and Michael Walker (Progressive Party) on what they see as the most important issues facing the Mana electorate.
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Focus on the Mana electorate: Hear from Labour candidate Barbara Edmonds and National candidate Jo Hayes on what they see as the most important issues facing the Mana electorate.
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Focus on the Ohariu electorate: Hear from minor party candidates Jessica Hammond (TOP), Philip Lynch (New Conservative Party), John Ranta (Green Party) and Sean Fitzpatrick (ACT) on what they see as the most important issues facing Wellington's northern suburbs.
Join Heather du Plessis-Allan, Barry Soper, Trish Sherson and Chris Carter thrash out the big political issues in the lead up to Vote 2020. There's no holding back, no topic off limits, and no rules in this rapid-fire, highly opinionated election podcast.
This week, the panel discusses the polls and what they mean for Judith Collins and National, Winston Peter's Orewa speech, and Labour's pledge to keep Tiwai Smelter open - with a catch!
Focus on the key issues facing the Ohariu electorate. Hear from incumbent, Labour's Greg O'Connor, National candidate Brett Hudson and New Zealand First candidate Tracey Martin on what they see as the most important issues facing Wellington's northern suburbs.
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Focus on the key issues facing Rongotai and Wellington Central this election: Hear from Wellington Chamber of Commerce Chief Executive John Milford, Real Estate agent Steve Farrell, Renters United's Zoe Woodfield and voxpops from the streets of Wellington, on what needs to be done to address rising housing costs and growing congestion in the capital.
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Focus on the Wellington Central electorate: Hear from minor party candidates Brooke Van Velden (ACT), Abe Grey (TOP), Liam Richfield (New Conservative Party) and Jesse Richardson (Independent) on what they see as the most important issues facing Wellington city.
Focus on the Wellington Central electorate: Hear from sitting MP, Labour's Grant Robertson, National candidate Nicola Willis and Green Party co-leader and candidate James Shaw with their views on the key issues of housing, transport and water in Wellington city.
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Focus on the Rongotai electorate: Hear from minor party candidates Troy Mihaka (Integrity Party), Bruce Welsh (New Conservative Party), Teall Crossen (Greens), Nicole McKee (ACT) and Taylor Arneil (NZ First) on what they see as the most important issues facing the Rongotai region.
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National's momentum has slowed after its $4 billion blunder.
The Party's promise to claw back $19.1 billion by ending Super Fund contributions was wrong - because Treasury's Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update only showed $15 billion.National Finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith called it an "irritating mistake".
Bu NewstalkZB Political Editor Barry Soper told Heather du Plessis-Allan it's more than that.
"They model themselves as the party that can handle the economy and make big economic decisions and make them stick.
"What did they do with this one? They botched it."
Soper joined du Plessis-Allan, Trish Sherson and Chris Carter on The Front Bench, Newstalk ZB's weekly show thrasing out the big political issues in the lead up to Vote 2020. There's no holding back, no topic off limits, and no rules in this rapid-fire, highly opinionated election podcast.
This week, the panel is discussing National's admission of a $4 billion hole in their financial plans, the Prime Minister ignoring social distancing while taking selfies on the campaign trail, and what the latest poll in Auckland Central means for the Greens.
Hear from sitting MP Labour's Paul Eagle, National candidate David Patterson and TOP party leader and candidate Geoff Simmons with their views on the key issues of transport and housing in the Rongotai area.
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Newstalk ZB's Vote 2020: Spotlight on Wellington brings you everything you need to know before you cast your vote on October 17 - candidate profiles, electorate analysis, the big issues, the game-changers.
The arguments for and against legalising cannabis for personal use are at the centre of tonight's debate about next month's referendum.
Hosted by Newstalk ZB's Heather du Plessis-Allan, the debate features Drug Foundation executive director Ross Bell, Associate Professor of Law Khylee Quince - who is a member of the expert panel of the PM's chief science adviser's expert panel on cannabis, Police Association president Chris Cahill, and Say Nope to Dope spokesman Aaron Ironside.
Cahill said police will follow whatever the public decide, but he warned that without the right price or the right THC (the psychoactive ingredient) level, users would simply stick to the black market.
Ironside argued that youth use would increase under legalisation simply because "it will be everywhere", but Bell and Cahill both cited Canada, where youth use fell - official statistics which Ironside challenged.
Bell said the proposed legal regulation in New Zealand would protect young users because millions of dollars would be available for education and treatment, and it was easier to talk to young people about legally regulated products.
Cahill said 50 per cent of cannabis in Canada was being bought on the legal market within the first year of legalisation, but most people who were vulnerable users were more likely to stay with the black market.
He said it was "nearly impossible" to get thrown in jail for use/possession of cannabis.
But Quince said Ministry of Justice statistics showed 230 people in 2019/20 were convicted for cannabis use/possession alone, and five of them were jailed.
Cahill said he didn't believe people were jailed and it was more likely they did a short stint in jail in place of a large fine they couldn't pay.
He said police action for cannabis use/possession had dropped signicantly, but it should be up to Parliament to decriminalise drugs if it's what lawmakers wanted.
It shouldn't be done by police discretion, which is applied differently in different regions and to different people.
Ironside said he used cannabis everyday for three years and his mental health "crashed".
"I couldn't push away the anxiety and depression."
Cahill said most cops were against legalisation because of the harm they've seen, especially in rural, deprived communities.
Bell said cannabis was already here, and it was about how to reduce harm. "We aren't inventing cannabis."
And Quince, who is from Northland, said the isse was not about using, but why people used, and more health treatment was crucial to reducing harm.
Bell said legalisation would help people wanting to use it for medicinal purposes, but unable to access cheap, legal medicinal cannabis products.
Quince added that people often used it for low level anxiety or sleeping trouble, issues that people don't go to the doctor for.
But Ironside said that wasn't a reason to vote 'yes'. It was a reason to fix the current law around medicinal cannabis.
An expert panel led by chief science adviser to the PM Dr Juliet Gerrard has published detailed information about the issue - without taking any sides.
Gerrard has said that the key issue is about whether legalisation under the proposed controls would reduce cannabis-related harm more than the status quo.
Those harms are not only health ones - which mainly affect young users or heavy users - but also social ones, such as how a cannabis conviction can see someone excluded from society or unable to find work.
The panel said New Zealand's proposed regime was closer to Canada's than any other region overseas where personal use was legal.
Canada legalised two years ago, and since then there's been a moderate increase in occasional adult use, an increase in daily or almost daily use for those over 65, and no reported change in use among those aged 15-24 for occasional or frequent use.
The panel, whose work has been nationally and internationally peer-reviewed, added that legalisation overseas had not been in place long enough to show any long-term tren...
Catch live action of the second instalment of The Front Bench. Every Monday until the election, The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign.
Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB political editor Barry Soper, PR whizz and former Act Party press secretary Trish Sherson and former Labour Party minister Chris Carter have the insight word and analysis. There's no holding back, no topic off limits, and no rules in this rapid-fire, highly opinionated election podcast.
Listen live from 4pm as they discuss the major topics, such as the Government's decision to remain at the current alert levels of 2.5 in Auckland and 2 across the rest of New Zealand. How does this decision reinforce Ardern's conservatism? Does it help Labour by making her look careful?
Political campaigns have begun ahead of next month's General Election - who is winning the race so far? How does National come back? Is Labour on track to govern alone? And do voters want to minimise the size of the Labour win?
Wallabies coach Dave Rennie lashed out at New Zealand quarantine measures, which played a significant role in the Rugby Championship hosting rights going the way of our trans-Tasman rivals. Rennie says they may not make it over - how damaging could this be for Labour? Why didn't they drop everything to make sure New Zealand were the hosts?
And Labour is introducing a new threshold of 39 per cent on income over $180,000 - do you believe Grant when he says they will not be implementing any other taxes? Even if they're in coalition with the Greens?
The End of Life Choice Act will allow terminally ill patients to spend more time with their families, not less.
Matt Vickers has advocated for euthanasia since his former wife Lecretia Seales died in 2015.
After her brain cancer diagnosis, Seales battled the courts for the right to end her life.
Vickers joined Kerre McIvor for an hour of talkback on the referendum, and says that many take their own lives prematurely out of fear of suffering.
He says the act would remove that threat of suffering, allowing them to focus on quality of life and being with family.
"What this legislation does is it offers hope. It offers people a way to take back some control and have a choice, when all other choices have been taken away from them."
Vickers says people are concerned the criteria would become too broad over time, but he says they are robust and strictly defined.
"This is probably one of the safest and most constrained in the world when you look at other versions of the legislation that are out there."
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Labour is backing calls to make Matariki a public holiday.
It would work out a winter date starting in 2022, to celebrate our national identity, cultures and traditions - and boost tourism and hospitality.
Waitangi Day was the last public holiday introduced - nearly 50 years ago.
Matariki - which heralds the start of the Maori New Year - would take the number of public holidays in New Zealand to 12 - counting regional anniversaries as one.
Speaking on Newstalk ZB's The Front Bench, former ACT press secretary Trish Sherson's not a fan.
"This election, and totally the wrong time, the big promise is another public holiday. I think it's tone deaf."
But former Labour minister Chris Carter disagreed.
"The Government is looking for ways in which, not only can we celebrate that Maori heritage, but also stimulate business."
Meanwhile, Winston Peters is making headlines again. The New Zealand First leader butted heads live on air with TVNZ's Jack Tame yesterday - after being asked about leaking and fraud investigations.
Peters accused the broadcaster of ambushing him on topics he hadn't prepared for.
Speaking on Newstalk ZB's The Front Bench, political editor Barry Soper says it's classic Peters.
"For Winston, this is theatre. He thinks by attacking the messenger, as he always does with the media - the public applaud him."
Listen above to The Front Bench - Heather du Plessis-Allan, Barry Soper, Trish Sherson and Chris Carter thrash out the big political issues in the lead up to Vote 2020
Heather du Plessis-Allan, Barry Soper, Trish Sherson and Chris Carter thrash out the big political issues in the lead up to Vote 2020. There's no holding back, no topic off limits, and no rules in this rapid-fire, highly opinionated election podcast.
Listen live every Monday at 4pm on Newstalk ZB and subscribe to the podcast on iHeartRadio.
A doctor advocating against the End of Life Choice Actl is concerned it doesn't let doctors have a say.
Palliative care doctor and University of Otago clinical senior lecturer Amanda Landers says it feels like an incoming freight train.
She joined Kerre McIvor for an hour of talk back on the referendum, and says the Bill should have more reference to the medics who it affects.
"A lack of safeguards, no real consultation with medicine, no real consultation with nurses or pharmacists who are also named in the act."
Landers also thinks the bill would place an unfair burden on doctors. She says that doctors can refuse to administer the procedure, but they still have to link the patient up with someone who will.
"That's like leaving a loaded gun in the House. And after that point, there's nothing I can do. I can't say to the person, please give me a bit more time to make this better for you."
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Last week, Kerre McIvor Mornings hosted former PM Helen Clark to talk about why cannabis should be legalised.
Today, Kerre talks to Aaron Ironside from Say Nope to Dope to discuss the other side of the campaign.
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Helen Clark is throwing her weight behind cannabis legalisation because she says the drug's already widely available.
The Former Prime Minister told Kerre McIvor the referendum is a once in a generation opportunity to get this law right.
Clark says there is currently an illegal market where organised crime profit.
“It doesn't make sense to criminalise people who take this widely used drug. “
Helen Clark joined Kerre McIvor for an hour of talkback, taking listener's calls on their questions and concerns about the referendum'.
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