Robert Young - YFS Private Client Market & Economy Audio-Email: Recent Episodes
Robert Young
Friends,
Except for a few stragglers, Earning Season is over.
Since this is the acid test for the impact of President Trumps’ use of tariffs as the dice in his Global “Not It” game, let’s take a look, shall we?
Robert
Friends,
The “Trade Agreement” with the United Kingdom
Is this P.T. Barnum Press Conference Soundbite Showmanship or Reality?
Let’s look at facts…
Cynically Optimistic,
Robert
Friends,
I assume we all know better than to use postings on an unregulated social media platform as the gospel truth. I'm confident that the vacuous pronouncements delivered with gusto are taken as bombastic theater - I am proud of y’all for your skepticism when you hear the fanciful, fabricated, “Trumped-Up” statements regarding “soon to be” signed tariff and trade agreements. But most of all, tears of joy swell in my eyes brought on by the elation and delight I feel knowing that you we're all Gold Star recipients in your civics classes and chuckle when the President triggers havoc with Markets with inaccurate statements regarding his ability to terminate the head of a non-government agency.
Request his resignation? Yes
Terminate? Nope
Robert
Friends,
For your consideration, I present facts related to the Market's miraculous, surprise climb on 9 April.
Was this truly for the benefit of America(ans) or orchestrated for the benefit of a select few?
Immediately after his post regarding the tariff suspension, in his following post, Prersident Trump proclaims, "it's a great time to buy the DJ" (Dow Jones Index)
Was this a signal?
Regardless, I present my thoughts on the four players involved in the Market explosion and the person whom I believe is the "Wizard behind the curtain"
Hint - it ain't President Trump
i hope I'm wrong :(
Robert
Friends,
Yesterday's "surprise" announcement by President Trump jacked Markets up by 9%+
But, was it for the benefit of America(ans) or a calculated "pump & dump" scheme orchestrated to reward those who breathe in "rarefied air"?
That's a cocktail party philosophical question that means nothing to me...
i'm interested in facts - and, today's 4+% clawback of the Market's 9% "gain" (making a net gain of 5% on yesterdays' news) appears to support the facts and data presented in today's audio-email.
In a follow up (addendum) to this audio-email, I explore the empirical evidence supporting the case for an orchestrated "surprise"
Robert
Friends,
At 3:00 AM when I booted up the system and looked at the futures market, seeing that it was up 800 points was mildly amusing to me.
By the opening bell, the market was up 1400+ points (around 3.5%).
This elicited an audible guffaw.
Seeing the market close <320 points / – 84%> Joined by the S&P 500's return of -1.5% and the Nasdaq’s return of -2.15%, makes me smile.
Anyone making investment or market decisions/assessments based on financial news' sound bites…
As the saying goes, “It ain’t over till it's over”.
Based on the indicators I outline in this audio, we are close to deploying the cash in your account to make money from this bloodbath, but we're not quite there yet.
Robert
Friends,
After fielding several regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI - What is it?, How is it controlled? I swear my toaster is eyeballing me - should I be afraid?) I wondered if some may have questions but simply haven't reached out to ask. Maybe this very primitive, elementary overview of the systems and models identified as AI.
Robert
Friends,
It's easy to get caught up in the drama of today's Market reaction triggered by President Trump's outline of the trade and tariff policy scheduled to deploy over the next several days.
I hope this audio e-mail puts his program and objective in context as a lucid and realistic alternative to the Market’s over-reaction (In my opinion)
Regardless, I am excited for the chaos and opportunities exposed during this knowing full well that we have deep pockets of cash ready to deploy in order for you to benefit from the Market's tantrum. Robert
Friends,
Happy Liberation Day! 😊
If you are worried or surprised by the recent repricing of the stock market (Market drop) or believe that the tariffs enacted today (just another set invoked and revised since February) are triggers for the Market decline which has taken the value down approximately10% from the peak achieved in late 2024 – then I have failed you :(
Months ago, based on new data and facts, I 86’d my belief that recession was imminent and would
result in a Market revaluation - and began focusing on the support systems (aka Consumer spending & Corporate revenue) necessary to maintain the ballooning value of the stock market. Although it's been six weeks since I’ve reached out, I have continued to monitor the data and feel that it is time to share an update.
Tariffs and Recession are making headlines.
Done so, I believe, because they make an easy link to one individual or administration and simplifies for people the Principal of Causation - the basic relationship between,” cause and effect”. Today, beginning with the math proving the unhinged valuation of the stock market, followed by data published by the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and debt delinquencies (credit card, auto loans & home loans), with a sprinkling of inflation's true impact on basic pleasures (dining out) - while folding in the actions of corporations (giddily outlined in press releases during the recent earning season) who have decided to drain every drop of blood from there consumer base before the consumers’ inescapable financial death. I have distilled this down to you in the most prosaic terms, “this market will correct and adjust the valuation when consumers/people run out of money.” This lengthy audio provides updated data and facts reminding you of this – it's just math, repricing of the market was inevitable regardless Fortunately, we have stored a great deal of ammunition in your account and will engage when the time is right for you to benefit.
Robert
Friends,
We are riding the AI fandom wave, but unlike others who are buying ""Cause It's the Future, Man...", we have done our research and know exactly why we're in the game and are invested in the Sector/Industry reaping quantifiable profits.
Robert
Friends,
Yes, another client inspired audio-email.
Ever wonder why I don't suggest initiating an automatic dividend re-investment program?
Maybe you have, maybe you haven't...
Like many things, it looks good on paper...
Robert
Friends,
Recently, conversations with clients included the topic of missed opportunities & the halcyon days of fast sales and big profits made from over-priced homes triggered the question, "Is there something in the data we monitor that I could find which might fan the flame of hope for these clients?"
Several days (and a few sleepless nights), using data from the Federal Reserve Banks that track this kind of stuff, sprinkled with inflationary stardust, provided an interesting possibility which I shared with them.
This audio-email was inspired by the thought that others may have the same question and be interested in the implications shown by this factual historical data.
TO BE CLEAR - This is a Hypothesis based on Conjecture!
The real-estate market is not in my wheelhouse and I'm not Tiresias...
Robert
Friends,
On 19 Dec, during the post-FOMC news conference, Chairman Powell's casual mention of the committee's concern regarding increasing inflationary pressures (aka - rising inflation = rising cost of goods & services) triggered a Market liquidation.
We'll look at the Fed's own data to investigate.
Keep in mind, when the Consumer runs out of Cash, Markets will re-price as Corporate revenue drops.
Robert
Friends,
Good Morning.
Monday’s (2 Dec) audio-email started with a broad look at the Market & the Economy and closed with updates on our investments.
My thoughts on the Market & Economy included coverage of inflation data. Verbally pictorializing the historical path of inflation data since 2020 prompted responses from several clients for clarification and examples/validation. I love these requests - it provides an opportunity to spotlight supporting facts. As an addendum to Monday's presentation, today's audio presents data published by the Federal Reserve which provides detail and clarity to Monday's information portrait I painted.
Since sleep is a frivolous activity, I recorded this around 2am. As I was wrapping up (what was a very short, fact packed presentation), misfiring synapses spawned an additional chapter covering politics, the economy, the stock market, and thoughts on willful ignorance.
Hope you find this educational and entertaining.
Robert
Friends,
Not to sound like a fatalist but it's hard to buy the narrative that, "The Economy is Swell & The American Consumer is Flush with Cash and doing just fine!" - especially when Economic data portends an opposite landscape.
I'll share factual data released by both the Federal Government & American Industry - please decide for yourself if we're really in the land of Rainbows & Unicorns that the Financial Headlines & Federal Reserve claim.
I'll close with an update on GrowGeneration (Cannabis re-scheduling update) and cover the newest additions to our investment family.
Robert
Friends,
Regardless of the enthusiasm each new day's headlines bring, my cautious optimism is tempered by the reality of economic news which continues to flash cautionary signals. In fact, two of the most trusted metrics for determining The Market’s under valuation, neutral valuation, or overvaluation (the Schiller P/E & Buffet Indicator) both show a Market that cannot be supported by economic facts.
I review both in today's update.
Despite this, there are two undervalued sectors our calculations have identified.
These are identified in today's update and I'm initiating an opening position for both in all accounts.
Robert
Friends,
This update is "Company / Investment Adjacent". We're not going to cover any updates regarding the Company, rather, we're diving into a specific event which has the potential to stoke rapaciousness in this sector (more importantly - in our little investment).
We'll see...
Robert
Friends,
Let's explore what our little telecommunication investment is up to these days....
Robert
Friends,
The Stock Market IS NOT the Economy - let's look at the facts as the CPI report is released today.
Robert
Friends,
I no longer identify with “Recession”.
I identify as “Market Valuation Adjustment”.
Thank you,
Robert
Friends,
The fervor over any tech company with even a passing acquaintance with AI continues to drive this market. It is fueled with the untenable belief that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts as early as March.
I guess it’s true
A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still
Let’s hang on, and observe the madness :)
Robert
Thursday the 31st is an emergency shareholder meeting, where we will be voting on the potential sale of our shares of consolidated communication to a private equity firm who wants to take the company private
Friends,
This audio shares the in-house formula we have developed to gauge the current value of the S&P 500.
The Buffett Indicator looks at the value of the Total Stock Market but we laser in on the S&P 500.
According to the formula, let's see if it's over or undervalued?
Robert
Friends,
Today, we are going to have a class on The (Warren) Buffet Indicator. A very simple approach he uses to determine whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued. If its overvalued and we wander down the Dark Alley of Recession (as outlined in the previous audio) then we want to be aware of just how much the stock market could decline in value.
Of course, I could be wrong about a pending recession.
But I could be right.
We’ll see.
Robert
Friends,
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released in a bit.
Within the Federal Government, two agencies monitor inflationary trends and release their findings monthly.
We'll look at their similarities and differences.
In your heart, you'll hope that the monetary policies affecting ALL of us financially, are created for our benefit by Chairman Powell and his Team at the Federal Reserve using the one which provides the truest clarity.
Robert
Friends,
Today, we review the 2 May FOMC meeting minutes released by Team Powell to see if there is any support for our Recession Hypothesis. Underneath the photo, you’ll find a link to a CNBC story on the “Wealth Effect” and further down, data on increasing credit card debt & delinquencies.
Semper Fi,
Robert
Friends,
Let’s turn our “Spotlight” on our investment in all things Transportation with our S&P 500 Transportation Index.
Robert
Friends,
Let’s look at the education riches April rained down on us. We’ll peak inside the mind of Chairman Powell and his merry Band of Governors by reading his diary (March’s FOMC meeting minutes), contemplate things we’ve learned from Corporate CEO’s & Presidents during the current earning season and finish up with a quick class on Money Supply (Life when you have a pocketful of Cash) Robert
Friends,
At 2pm, the Head of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell, will announce the Committee's decision on a rate hike increase.
Fingers crossed that his words will trigger a positive Market rally.
We shall see...
Robert
Friends,
Today, I want to share a class on Bonds, Bank Failures, Bank Bailouts and how events over the last week could trigger a Market rally!
Robert
Friends,
Just updating you on the recession signals we're seeing plus a new ingredient that's been added to the mix during earning season - the Year Over Year decline in corporate revenues and the warnings given by analysts and corporate management that there will be a severe revenue challenge by the 4th Quarter.
More recession indicators continue to activate.
Fine with us As far as we're concerned, it can't happen soon enough.
You're Protected & We're Ready For War,
Robert
Friends,
On Wednesday, our "Knight in Shining Armor" Brendan Pederson (reporter from "Punchbowl News") showed up to the post-FOMC meeting and asked one indirect simple question to Chairman Powell which triggered algorithms to react exactly as I had hoped as expressed in the 1 FEB audio.
Not only did the Market's reaction significantly impact our investments and cause a re-organization of our positions, but it also brought in a surprise.
Because the triggers for Friday's Market decline were bizarre, over the weekend, I tore both the Employment Report and Service PMI Report apart to find something fishy going on and believe you'll find the "facts" presented in both reports very interesting.
Chairman Powell will speak today. If he says anything which can be interpreted as a potential "pause" in rate increases, we could see the Market climb 1% to 2%+ this week.
You can tell it wants to. It just needs an excuse!
Fingers Crossed,
Robert
Friends,
Today is built on Hope!
We expect Chairman Powell and his Team to raise interest rates by .25 basis points (1/4 of 1%)
What we are HOPING for is language in his speech after the announcement which has themes like, "our next move will be data-dependent" or "we're going to wait and see", etc.
This will excite the algorithms into a Buying Frenzy. If this occurs, and the Market rises to 4,150+, we will complete the liquidation of our holdings in the S&P 500 and Regions Financial, take the Cash and wait for the opportunities we see approaching.
Stay Tuned,
Robert
Friends, Last week, we reviewed the recession indicators we dial up & monitor if we get warning pings from one or two.
However, what does it matter if we can’t translate the data into actionable items?
Right??
Today, we’ll look at THE Opportunity which may present itself on Thursday (12th) and my plans for capitalizing on it, should it come to fruition.
From there, we’ll look 6 to 9 months into the future.
Hope is not an Investment Strategy… Until It Is 😊
Enjoy your day and I’ll connect on Thursday.
Robert
Friends
Today we’ll cover the relationship between Inflation and Employment and why the Federal Reserve is committed to increasing unemployment!
Hint: Today’s announcement that Unemployment has dropped from 3.7% to 3.5% will make February’s FOMC meeting an interesting one.
I’ll close out by covering more of the data we monitor. Robert
Bank Lending – the last item I cover: It’s NOT high interest rates on borrowed money that has deepest negative impact on an economy, it’s the reduction of borrowed money due to increases in bank lending standards
Friends,
OMG - pack a lunch and hydrate if you're planning on powering through this :20 exercise covering more of the data we monitor. If you want to see how it comes together and the how we hope to benefit on 12 January, feel free to run ahead and listen to the final :5
Fingers crossed that the "herd" will cause a rally that we will use for our benefit 😊
Robert
Friends,
Wall Street money managers are fixated on monthly inflationary indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the expectation that Chairman Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee will stop raising the Federal Fund rate and possibly begin lowering it if inflation indicators start dropping. They are already retreating from their highs - giving people the impression that a recession will be shallow or possibly avoided.
This is false sense of security and is dangerous "group-think".
I'll explain what Powell and his Team are dedicated to accomplishing and the inevitable recession they will trigger.
Robert
Friends,
Thought that I'd use the lull in the week between Christmas and New Year to share a class on US Treasuries and their use as indicators of recessions as well as recent research we've done which shows they may also indicate when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates, pause or possibly initiate rate reductions.
This could be a very exciting development for us all...
Enjoy the Day,
Robert
Friends,
After two weeks of watching the value of the Market melt away (along with our account value), today's rally was an early Christmas gift.
Will it last? Nah... it's just the Season.
We'll take advantage of the next few days with the knowledge that, after 3 January, about the time the VISA bills begin to arrive, the music will fade, lights will be turned on and the party will end.
Until then, as the orchestra plays, grab your cocktail and join me on the deck under this beautiful night. Look... a floating block of ice! Hold your drink against it as I chill our drinks with scrapings from this floating cube :)
Stop being silly...there's no reason to worry or be afraid. of course, we're safe, we're unsinkable!
We're on the Titanic
Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays,
Robert
Friends,
Yesterday, I did mention that Chairman Powell's choice of words could trigger a Market Rally or Sell Off. Well, I was correct about the cause/effect correlation :) He certainly used very specific & aggressive words! Words like..."restrictive policy", "extremely tight labor market" (hint - a nice way of framing high unemployment) and these gems..."The Federal Reserve is NOT CLOSE to ending its anti-inflation campaign of interest rate increases" and "We will STAY THE COURSE until the job is done!".
These words have triggered a Market reaction but not the one we wanted.
I'll keep you posted as we get through this together.
Robert
Friends,
We’re on standby until 2PM today. That’s when the FOMC meeting adjourns, and Chairman Powell hits the podium to update us on the FOMC’s progress in their War on Inflation. It’s not the expected 50 basis point increase (1/2 %) that we care about, it will be the committee’s plan for future interest rate increases.
If we hear combinations like: “wait & watch”, “ pause & observe”, “we’re near neutral” or even “we're now at parity” then buckle up because these will trigger a buying frenzy and a Market rally!
If a rally occurs and lifts our position in the S&P 500 over 4100 and/or our holdings in Regions Bank to our purchase price (only a couple of dollars away), then I’m hitting the “SELL” button and stashing the Cash under the mattress for the rainy days we see on the horizon.
I’ll send an update after the Market closes (4PM).
Enjoy your day,
Robert
Friends,
Today starts a week full of data that Chairman Powell and Team Federal Reserve will use to gauge the effectiveness of their interest rate increases on lowering inflation. Lower inflation numbers could bring us the Red Rider BB Gun / Pony we want for Christmas. Higher numbers could bring us a bag of coal.
Today, I'll review which data the Federal Open Market Committee will use in their 14 December meeting and cover our strategy for the end of the year.
Robert
Friends,
Ignited by several sources, including a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing inflation was at 7.7% (Hell – this came in better than the “best case” 7.9% I predicted in the 10 NOV audio), last Thursday saw the Market rise +3%.
While we will follow the advice of the Edgar Winter Group and take the “Free Ride” - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGB-8_cNgpk
We will also keep in mind the sage advice of The WHO and ‘Won’t Be Fooled Again” - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDfAdHBtK_Q
We’ll let the Market raise positions to our “SELL” targets, cash in our chips and wait for the Recession (and Market fall) that Chairman Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve Committee has stated that they are “committed to driving our economy into” to bring inflation down to their 2% target.
Buckle Up and Enjoy the Ride,
Robert
Friends,
Today's CPI report is the first of five reports the Federal Reserve will use to make their next Fed Fund Rate decision in December. If the CPI rate comes in lower than expected, it could trigger a rally pushing the Market (S&P 500) to 4,000+.
Regardless, our Economy will go into a Recession next year.
We are ready.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY to THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS
SEMPER FI!
Robert
Friends,
Today Chairman Powell will announce a Federal Fund Rate increase of .75 basis points (3/4 of 1%). This is a forgone conclusion. The focus of every Investor, Trader, Hedge Fund & Pension Manager, and every computer algorithm will be on the statements he makes after concerning future rate increases - both in frequency and level.
Buckle up...
Robert
Friends,
Now that AVEO has been sold to LG Chemical, let's walk through the final stages as the AVEO is terminated, LG Chemical buys our shares of AVEO, how and when we will receive payment and the potential tax consequences from selling our shares to LG Chemical.
Robert
Friends,
A hard Recession is on the horizon. I'll cover when, why it will occur, what to expect and how we'll get through it. I'm also covering the issues effecting the Markets daily.
Finally, we'll end with a little positivity about our little bio-tech investment - AVEO
(Hint - How does a CASH offer to BUY your shares sound?)
Robert
Friends,
Today's CPI report not only shows that the cost of goods and services have increased since last month, at 6.6%, costs are higher now than ever - exceeding the previous high of 6.5% in March - 5 months ago!
This is undeniable proof that inflation is increasing, and the Federal Reserve must aggressively raise rates to stop the advance.
Unfortunately, the necessary action will likely drive us into a recession sooner than the 9-month (end of 2nd Qtr 2023) timeline I've been planning on and referencing over the last several Market & Economic audio-emails.
Robert
Friends,
Most people aren’t aware why Shanghai continues to experience COVID outbreaks, apartment buildings are welded shut, entire city blocks are fenced – trapping residents, 1/3 to 2/3 of the Port of Shanghai is habitually closed, the significance of 16 October and the event which could potentially flood supply chains with goods and materials thereby triggering an End of Year Market rally.
After listening, you’ll know…
Stay Safe, Sane, and Dry
Robert
Friends,
This is going to be an interesting week as three forces collide: It's the End of the Month AND the End of the Quarter which means it's "Put Lipstick on the Pig" as Fund Managers scramble to “pretty up” their portfolios and squeeze some gain to show investors.
They are swimming against the whirlpool dragging stock prices down as the Market wakes up to the fact that Chairman Powell has been telling us the Truth - The Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates, destroy the Market and drive the Economy into a Recession - whatever it takes to kill Inflation.
Oh, and we haven't stepped into October yet - just wait for the surprise I have for you
Halloween is coming early this year!
Robert
Friends,
Yes, today at 2:30Pm EST, the Federal Reserve announces the next Fed Fund Rate hike – Blah, Blah Blah…
Don't pay attention to any of it. The focus that we and every other investment manager will be lasered on will be the possibility of a rate increases in October, November, and December.
Today I cover Market drivers and the temporary heights we expect the Market to climb to before heading South.
I share the Lagging & Leading Economic Indicators we’ve been watching which point to the Economic Recession sitting on the horizon.
Buckle up, we’re in for a bumpy ride.
Robert
Friends,
For years, Walgreens languished under the heavy debt and missed opportunity under the leadership of a visionless CEO. Last year, a new CEO with vision and determination took over the helm. The progress is slow but steady and our investment will bear this out over time.
Robert
Friends,
First - In my head, I had the correct coverage but my mouth went in a different direction. Verizon covers 200 million people - not 20 million. This investment is an example of the importance of a process in determining the viability of an investment.
Robert
Friends,
Usually, our "Spotlight" is on a position we are invested in. Today's "Spotlight" is a bit premature. On Friday, GOOGLE will issue a 20:1 split - dropping the stock price from it's current $2,200/$2,400 per share level to an accessible $100+ level. We will take advantage of the lower "Entrance Fee" and initiate a position.
Robert
Friends,
This week is a trifecta of Economic fun! We have the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Thursday is the start of the Corporate Beauty Pageant - Earning Season. The Inflation Reports will be the focus of the Federal Reserve, who meet at the end of the month, and money managers will be focused on Corporate Earnings.
The next four weeks could be bumpy, strap in.
Robert
Friends,
Today, we turn our "Spotlight" onto our Smith & Wesson investment.
By the end of the update, you'll see the Big Beautiful Opportunity that we have in our sights.
Robert
Friends,
What A Month! We don't believe this is over. As I've said previously, it will take one of these events to occur: 1. FACTUAL Data Supporting Peak Inflation/Hawkish Federal Reserve, 2. FULL China Reopening, or 3. RELATIVE Geopolitical calm. Then, The Market will find a bottom - until then, the potential for another sell-off exists.
However, this week marks the end of the Month and the end of the Quarter so we'll see Fund & Investment Managers re-positioning portfolios (Code for Window Dressing) and we're heading into a long Holiday weekend - which could rally the S&P 500 to 4,000 (+2%), 4,100 (+4%) - some even speculate that 4,180 (+6%) is viable.
Never one to look a "Gift Horse in the Mouth" ("Hey... are there Greeks in there?") I'll take any gains and just say, "Thank You".
Enjoy the Week and Celebrate America's Independence.
Semper Fi,
Robert
Friends,
In this "Spotlight", we use The Process to review our holdings in Marathon Petroleum and Exxon Mobil. These two positions have been extraordinary performers breaking through every previous "SELL" level achieving returns ranging from 50% to 250% / 300%.
Just unbelievable!
Frankly, until last week, I thought we would hold these for several more months but National & World Players have conspired against us and Oil is beginning to break - causing a sudden drop in our gains.
The writing is on the wall and I'll be exiting with our profits to fight another day.
Robert
Friends,
I focus the "Spotlight" on our position in APPLE by taking you through The Process so you can see it in action. We have invested in APPLE multiple times during our history and this may be the end of our current relationship with APPLE.
Let's see if it will be the close of the latest chapter in our Book of Investments.
I will discuss this with you individually.
Robert
Friends,
In the final email on The Process (#3), I cover the critical area of a Business's Free Cash Flow - the Life Blood of a Business. If the prospective investment makes it through this section of the gauntlet, the final steps are covered bringing us to:
Price Analysis - What the Target "BUY" Price will be.
I hope you find these explanations of The Process valuable.
Robert
Friends,
In this section (#2), I continue the review of the business's financial statements and the markers I'm looking for.
It's just math :)
Robert
Friends,
This is The Process email I've been promising. In times of extreme volatility, doubt & fear can creep out of the shadows - hopefully, knowing there is a process for mitigating risk will calm angst during uncertain periods. In these, I outline the process for identifying & vetting a prospective Company or Market Sector to invest our hard earned money in. To hopefully hold your interest, I've attempted to limit these to 6 minutes - there are 3. This is the 1st.
Robert
Friends,
The Federal Reserve has lost all credibility and is in reactionary mode based on their realization that they did not do their primary job they have - manage inflation.
Now, we are left to suffer an issue which could have been easily managed in May 2021
Today's rate increase announcement is critical
I will keep you posted
Robert
Friends,
Friday’s CPI report & the potential inflationary level of tomorrow’s PPI report has made some Traders and Investors lose faith in Jerome Powell & The Federal Reserve’s ability to manage and reduce inflation.
This loss of confidence manifests in sell-offs.
I believe it is short sighted and outline when this will stop, turn and rally.
Robert
Friends
Just a quick rambling overview of the trifecta of triggers which caused yesterday’s Market sell-off and the potential continuation into the weekend
Robert
Friends,
Often, Life is about Perspective - which is why the phrase, "Glass Half Full" exists. Is Data giving us Good News or Bad? Sometimes it depends on your perspective. Since 12% of the Economy's GDP (think of GDP as money flowing through the Economy) is generated in the Housing Sector from the purchase / sale of a New or Existing Home and all of the ancillary purchases (i.e. – spending) created by the purchase, this sector is the 2nd most important indicator when gauging the Health of the Economy and ultimately...The Market.
Let’s just say, we’re leaning toward the negative perspective in our view of the Glass these days… Robert
Friends,
Like the proverbial Canary In the Coal Mine, Retailers are our Canary when it comes to warning us about the Consumer. Since 75% of our Economy is driven by Consumer spending, we listen and what they are saying doesn't paint a positive picture of the Economy and ultimately...The Market.
Robert
Friends,
There is no economic data to support this rebound. It's driven by traders looking for bargains among the recent carnage.
So what?
Enjoy the selling reprieve while it lasts...
Robert
Friends,
On 10 May, I explained that The Market would continue its downward spiral. Today I’m going to address the 3%+ drop in The Market, what will need to happen to turn this around, just how much further The Market may fall & why you should believe in Santa.
(Hint - Because Christmas is coming early this year!)
Robert 🎄
Friends,
On Wednesday, April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be issued and I believe it will be slightly lower than last month. This slightly lower number will be taken as a sign that inflation has reached the summit and is now starting down the mountain. Lower numbers will also be promoted as support for Powel & Co's (Federal Reserve) narrative that inflation in transitory, now waning and only .50 basis point increases are required. This may be all the Market needs to rally and you may see a run up in the S&P 500 to 4150 - 4200 / even 4300!
I'm not buying it and believe the Market has another drop in store for us. We'll See.
Make it a Great Day.
Your Cynical Optimist,
Robert
Friends,
On Wednesday, after the FOMC Meeting, the Market headed North. On Thursday, It headed South and is currently approaching the Earth's Molten Core on its way to China.
In this audio, I'm answering 4 Questions: Why Have Stocks Dropped to the March Lows, What's Holding Up Best, What Makes This Stop, and How Bad Can It Get? Plus a Bonus Answer - How Are We Protecting Ourselves and/or Taking Advantage of this?
Cynically Optimistically Yours,
Robert
Friends,
On Wednesday, after 18 frustrating months, I set our position in JETS (the Airline Index) free. In this brief audio, I explain why but that we still have exposure to the airline sector in our broad Transport Index.
Robert
Friends,
This will only take a few minutes but, given the current environment, well worth the time to review the effects of interest rates on Technology Stock valuations and the direct influence Technology Stocks have on the Rise & Fall of the S&P 500.
Robert
Last week the Market took a trip South. Let’s look at the cause, the effect it had on our investments and what a 3% 10 year Treasury Yield could trigger.
Financial headlines today are making a big deal of the 5 year/10 year Treasury Yield inversion and the Bone Throwing ability it has for predicting a looming Recession
Seems like a good opportunity to have a class on Treasury Yield Curve Inversions as Recession Indicators
Friends,
I apologize.
After 8 takes trying to cram 20+ mins of information on the Federal Reserve, Rate Hikes, Inflation and (I swear to God, you can’t make this stuff up!!!) Biden's Tik Tok Top 20 Influencer Program (gotta love handing the responsibility of explaining geo-political economics to a 15yr old to the American Public - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613795/Joe-Biden-deploys-teenage-TikTok-stars-blame-soaring-gas-prices-inflation-Russia.html
into a 10 min audio-email, I have given up and am sending this out - it's a hair under :15 ☹
On Friday, I am sending a follow-up email with the 3 sector investments alluded to at the end.
Enjoy your Day
Stay Sane,
Robert
Friends,
Don’t be fooled… yesterday’s “Rip Your Face Off Rally” was not initiated by any change in recent headline narratives – Think Ukraine/Russia & Inflation
The rally was all about algorithm generated rotations from Energy to Technology. Taking profits and buying “value” stocks.
Today’s higher than expected CPI Inflation numbers brings uncertainty which is reflected in the Market’s dip today.
Now you know why we’re staying in Cash – I’ll let you know when there’s clarity and it’s time for Action.
Stay Sane,
Robert
In the best of times, the Market is a high stakes poker game and right now, there are only three people left at the table – Team You & I and our nemesis - Uncertainty.
At this moment, Uncertainty is sitting across from us, a face jacked full of Botox, stone faced and unreadable, eyes veiled by mirrored sunglasses - holding a Royal Flush while currently we’re holding a pair of 2s.
But, the cards are turning in our favor…
On Monday, Russia entered Eastern Ukraine territories to support separatist groups who want to leave Ukraine and become a Russian territory again.
At 3am this morning. Futures Markets were down -2%. They've bounced back since then but the day is early. We will see how this all plays out over the next few days. In the meantime, we are staying the course with the true threat to The Market being inflation data and the Federal Reserve's Interest rate response.
We are not fooled by this distraction. Our focus is on 16 March, after the Federal Reserve meeting where we will get clarity on what the future holds.
But, being vigilant, we will 'Never let a good crisis go to waste" and the Markets' reaction to the Russia/Ukraine issue might just give us an opportunity to add to our holdings.
We’ll see…
This is a fast update on breaking events. The Canadian trucking convoy which is blocked a major US/Canada highway has now dissipated opening the doors for goods to come back into United States.
More importantly, the federal reserve is in a unscheduled, emergency closed door meeting right now. There is speculation that they will announce a decision to hold off on interest rate increases in March due to Geo political uncertainty. If this is the case, we could see this market rally. I will keep you posted
Continuing our review of current investments, I am turning our spotlight on GrowGeneration, the “Home Depot of cannabis”. I’ll review the reasons for investing in the company, causes for the stock decline and my long-term view for staying in
Happy Valentine’s Day!
Last week's consumer price index report came out. This shows the price you and I pay for products has increased more than what is expected - inflation is greater than people thought. On Tuesday, the Producer Price Index report will be released. As I have stated in previous audios, it will be nasty. There’s no way it will show that manufactures are paying less for raw materials than they were a year ago. We are staying the course and we’ll see how the market reacts.
Robert
Today, I'm covering inflation reports being released over the next two weeks, the speculation which will flourish concerning the Federal Reserve's response in March and volatility (i.e. Opportunity) we could see in the S&P 500.
I’m continuing on with our series updating you on our investments by focusing on the individual stocks we hold beginning with a “Spotlight” on AVEO.
This one is a little longer than most because I start with a short class on understanding what a biotech company does and its role in the healthcare industry. This will provide the framework necessary to view AVEO with clarity.
Today I’m going to recap January’s volatility, the driving force behind the Market’s rebound on Friday & Monday, the inflationary surprise I believe is waiting Powell & Company in March and belief we’ll sell off before mid- March.
Today is one of those day's that will be a defining moment in Jerome Powell's legacy, As Chairman of the Federal Reserve, at 2pm today, what he says and how he says it will either bring stability to the Markets or trigger a sell-off. We'll see. After the last several days of Market declines, the S&P 500 fell more than 10% off of its highest level and I opened a position in our investment allocation. If the Markets continue spiraling downward, I will add to it as it reaches my next target price. I'll keep you posted. Stay Safe & Stay Sane.
The addition of the Transportation Sector completes my objective for having complete coverage in this area. With this index, we have a broad net over airlines, cargo ships, railroads and trucking lines - areas that directly impact inflationary pressures. As these areas loosen and return to normal, inflationary pressures will diminish.
Markets continue to slide due to rampant speculation and panic selling nurtured by a lack of clear direction from The Federal Reserve. Today, I outline our expectations for the end, what it will take, and the opportunities we are capitalizing on as others thrash around.
The Airline Index is a sub-set of the Transportation Index. It's a specialized/boutique investment that we occasionally invest in whenever the "Goldilocks Opportunity" presents itself - It's got to be "Just Right". I discuss why we invested, the challenges we've faced and our timeline for exiting and profit target
I review our investments in the Technology Sector, the causal effect that rising interest rates have on valuations and the resulting sector re-pricing (sell-off) as well as provide an outline of our profit and the time-line for reinvestment in the sector.
Inflation is Rampant, Wages are Dropping - The Market should be re-pricing (falling) but continues to climb.
What am I missing? Is there a "Puppet Master" in the Shadows
Later this week, I’ll begin sending out an audio every couple of days "spotlighting" one of our current holdings.
It seems like a good opportunity to start with an outline on the process for choosing an investment.
In this audio, I cover the type of investing we do, how we find our candidates and the criteria/process we use to analyze the company before deciding to discard it or add it to our holdings.
The market selloff which started last week and continues today, as I’ve pointed out for weeks (most recently in the 1 January audio email) was not unexpected
We have been preparing for it
Another day and Markets are up 2% to 3% - it’s Rainbows & Unicorns again 🌈🦄- Omicron is no longer a threat. Well, it was never a threat. The true Threat is Inflation, Powell & the FOMC meeting on the 15th.
This Friday (10th) Will be critical to our next move and the Market’s next move
I’ll keep you updated
Markets volatility has been blamed on the Omicron variant - the virus is not the threat, it’s Powell and the Federal Reserve that is causing this Market to feel like a roller coaster ride. We’re keeping an eye on two key dates…
Letting everyone know about recent positions we sold out of before the Market tumbled, Cash we have on hand and an update on Positions we are adding to our portfolio
Today The president of AVEO, Michael Bailey, The lead researcher and head of marketing/product development held the 3rd quarter earnings call. Earnings and revenue beat expectations and the AVEO Team discussed the biggest challenge they are facing with introducing the drug to oncology treatment providers
This is an update on our holding in the airline industry and three events which are causing our position to take off. We're rising through our current altitude of a 20% return and rising steadily to our final cruising altitude of a 40% return.
OPEC meets today. We’ve seen oil drop in price the last couple of days with investors worried that OPEC would bow to pressure from Japan, India and United States and raise production levels. Laughable!
OPEC won’t bend a knee and prices will resume their climb. We will be selling soon.
I’ll let you know when we’re out
We see solid Market strength in foundation areas and I am recommending that it’s time to make a change to your TSP allocation
We have clarity from Chairman Powell & the FOMC - It’s time to add to our strategy and benefit from the reopening of our economy
.Solid Company with revenue sources from refining, transportation, storage & distribution which has been providing a 9% dividend yield for months
Why Exxon Mobil? Hmmm - a solid 6% dividend yield, $1 to $1.5 BILLION in expected earnings from last quarter, a “Sell” price that’s 30% higher than today’s price, and a management team that is adapting this Beast to thrive in a Green Energy World 🌎
Just want to give everyone an expectation that I will be sending out a new Market and Economy audio email by tomorrow and how I will be providing the Quarterly Position Updates - hint… you won’t be listening to the audio version of Ivanhoe!
We are keeping an eye on the Market. We don’t believe that you should make any changes now, but, it feels like we’re close
It’s been awhile since I felt the need to send a Market & Economy update. Technically, the 3rd Quarter Earnings season started last week, but, as you’ll hear, I consider the 2nd week the true measure and start of Earnings Season.
I outline why this Market will continue to climb punctuated by an occasional rest or stumble but it will continue forward until it meets the only foe strong enough to kill it.
The killer is unmasked and their method of execution is identified.
This “class” on Options Trading is longer than most simply because of the complexity of the topic. Not only did I try to share data regarding the amount of options traded but there is an attempt to provide a working example. Hopefully what is usually demonstrated on a chalk board translates verbally/audibly so that you can “see” the word problem in your mind’s chalkboard. We’ll see…
This is the 2nd of 3 and covers two topics:
1.The impact that certain stocks have on an Index (S&P 500, DOW, NASDAQ, etc.) based on the number of shares a stock has in an Index relative to all others and the “weight” it carries – you can compare this to Congress. Don’t look at the S&P 500 as a bunch of companies, but see it as Congress. In Congress, there are 435 representatives, BUT, not every State has equal representation or voting power, right? The Tiny State of Vermont has one (1) Congressional Representative while across the Country, the Grand State of California has fifty-three (53) – whom do you think carries more “weight” when it comes to Voting and Legislative change? Now, turn NextEra Energy (yep, our old friend FP&L) into Vermont and GOOGLE into California and you begin to see how the outcome of the S&P 500 (Congress) can be effected by one company’s stock. The combined “weight” of the top six (6) represent over 25% of the S&P 500.
2.Computers & Algorithms. I’m in awe of the advancements we’ve made from the power of computers. Add in their operating instructions and you can move mountains (Wikipedia: an algorithm is a finite sequence of well-defined, computer-implementable instructions, typically to solve a class of specific problems or to perform a computation). But, sometimes, left unchecked, this combo can bite the hand that feeds. In September, a textbook example occurred which gives a perfect example.
We look at the affects of the cyber security attack on colonial pipeline, the NASDAQ sell off and tech sector sell off
This weeks’ views on the Market, The Economy & Difference between Active & Passive Fund Management
Introduction to our new weekly Markets, The Economy & Spotlight on your 401k Plan and Investments
This week’s look at the Markets, The Economy & a Deep Dive into our 3 Technology Sector Holdings
This week’s look at the Economy, quarter end Markets and a look at our investment in Apple
Update on The Market and Economy - Our Projection for End of Year Levels and Position Updates: Oil & Cybersecurity