Get Smart Politics Podcast: Recent Episodes
Eric Bohl
Congress is back in session and more dysfunctional than ever. What do the holdouts want from Kevin McCarthy? What is the path forward? Sam and Eric discuss.
They also discuss this week’s Smart Book, The Violence Project: How to Stop a Mass Shooting Epidemic by Jillian Peterson and James Densley. Pick up a copy at the link below.
Show Notes
- Smart Book: The Violence Project by Jillian Peterson and James Densley
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Sam and Eric discuss whether the Sinema flip makes any difference and how could it come to matter, then explain what’s going on with same-sex marriage, and close out by talking about something truly exciting: fusion.
They also introduce the next Smart Book, The Violence Project: How to Stop a Mass Shooting Epidemic by Jillian Peterson and James Densley.
Pick up a copy at the link below - we’ll discuss it in early January, so get to reading it during your Christmas break!
Show Notes
- Smart Book: The Violence Project by Jillian Peterson and James Densley
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
After a hiatus, Sam and Eric are back! When will the Trump phenomenon flame out, or has it already begun to do so? They dig into the current status of Trumpism and where it’s going from here.
Can people’s minds change about political issues? Sam and Eric discuss David McRaney’s book How Minds Change. How and when do people form their opinions? What can change a made-up mind? Pick up the Smart Book at the link below if you’re curious.
Show Notes
- Smart Book: How Minds Change by David McRaney.
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Subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.
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If you're pretty podcast-savvy, copy and paste this URL into your podcast app: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/838219.rss
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Thank you!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced his plans to Make America Great Again Again. Does anyone care? Is there any energy behind his campaign? What might be his exit strategy if the race doesn’t go his way? Sam and Eric discuss, plus some more on How Minds Change by David McRaney. Also, join Eric for a live event with Braver Angels this Sunday, November 20, at 7pm ET!
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Did Tuesday’s election really matter? Do campaigns matter at all? Before the election, people from all corners were saying this was “the most important election of our lifetime.” Does that feel true today? Sam and Eric discuss after an anticlimactic night.
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Show Notes
- Upcoming Smart Book: How Minds Change by David McRaney.
Subscribe to the Podcast
-
Subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.
-
If you're pretty podcast-savvy, copy and paste this URL into your podcast app: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/838219.rss
Upgrade
If you like what we’re doing here, please consider upgrading your membership to support us!
Thank you!
—Eric
Raw Transcript
Sam Gedert 00:00
Greetings Get Smart listeners, Sam Gedert here along with the author of Get Smart Politics, Eric Bohl. how you doin, Eric?
Eric Bohl 00:08
doing pretty well. How are you? Sam? It's been a couple of weeks
Sam Gedert 00:11
it has been I've been both sick and was in a play. So I I tell you being sick takes a lot of time
Eric Bohl 00:22
to you, but I was not in a place. So you got one up on me. Yeah,
Sam Gedert 00:25
thank you. Life is nothing but a contest. So I think I like the fact that it is a week from the election. And tonight's episode, we'll discuss almost nothing about the election.
Eric Bohl 00:46
People have gotten plenty of that. Well, exactly know what else there is to say right now. Right, right,
Sam Gedert 00:52
you know, and I'm just always like, Who are these undecided voters that haven't had up there? You know, like, what else do you need to know?
Eric Bohl 00:57
And I keep on like, every week, as I'm writing the weekly cheat sheet, I'm looking at all this stuff. And I'm like, What is new to say? It's at this point, but let's just see what comes in and then talk about it. Because yeah, there's a, there's a lot of things that are going to be wrong, and a lot of things that are going to be right, but right now, all I'd be doing is guessing. So just wait and see. Yeah,
Sam Gedert 01:20
yeah, it will be interesting. So the three things we got on tap for you tonight are for the deep dive from the weekly cheat sheet, we're going to be taking a look at the affirmative action case that the Supreme Court has just picked up, won't have a decision probably until spring at least. Unless it gets leaked again. Which actually, that'd be interesting to see if that happens. We've got sort of a good smart topic that we're kicking around as far as another reason, Eric and I are always looking at this with as far as it relates to extreme ideology and other things about how did we get here. And we have some additional thoughts on how we got here. And then we have a teaser for another book that we're going to be looking at called how mines change. And we'll dive into that a little bit just to give you an idea of what we're looking at. So starting with our deep dive, Eric, from your standpoint, obviously, this is significant. This be in the affirmative action decision. That's been our I'm sorry, the case is that they decided to pick up it's a new court, then then. Can you tell us a little bit about the case itself? Just so we have a little bit of an idea of rather than that's that affirmative action case? What are we actually talking about here?
Eric Bohl 02:44
Yeah, so there's actually two different cases that were kind of tied together. And the Court heard arguments on both of them on Monday, several hours of arguments, it really drugged out good part of the day on Monday, because they were really going back and forth about this one. There are two different cases, the first or one of them is against Harvard Law School. And then the other one is against the University of North Carolina. And there's some legal technicalities about the the why one, you know, one's a private institution, one's a public institution. But effectively, they're both under the same general law. One is, you know, more of a constitutional issue. And then one is under the statutes that protect people from racial discrimination. So this group of this group that advocates for students, or potential students, filed a suit against both of those institutions. And the majority of their argument centered around how both of those institutions discriminate against Asian American students, largely, by keeping them out, even if they scored super well on all their tests. And, you know, their applications were top notch, and they were top of their class in high school, they had a much lower chance of getting admission into Harvard Law School or into University of North Carolina, then people have some other races. And they the allegation is that this is a racial racial discrimination that goes against federal law and in the Constitution, and that you should not be able to use race as a factor in making admissions decisions when trying to decide who should be offered admission into a class. So that's the basic background of it. This has come up many, many times over the past 45 years. The the original case that kind of set this law was in the late 70s. And then there was a big big case that revisited it, which I mentioned in the cheat sheet on Monday. That was 19 years ago. I'm almost 20, by the time this opinion comes out, it'll be 20 years ago. And there, it's kind of come to the point where, under the law as it stands right now, there's only pretty narrow ways that a school can use race and their admission standards. But the court has hinted that there needs to be an end date to this. And the case that was 20 years ago, Sandra Day O'Connor and writing that opinion said, maybe 25 years from now, we won't need this anymore. And here we are 20 years later, and they're all right. Is it time? All right. And that was what a lot of the arguments centered around, I guess is like, when is this actually going to end?
Sam Gedert 05:43
Well, I'm not a lawyer. I'm certainly not
Eric Bohl 05:48
a recovering lawyer. Practice anymore. But I am technically.
Sam Gedert 05:52
Right. Right. The thing that I don't understand, or I think I understand sometimes, but then I don't, is, is is, and they got into some of this, as it related to COVID measures, and and whether or not certain jurors, the jury manner of jurisdiction. You know, here in Ohio, we were our solicitor was the lead, in the case against OSHA for essentially saying, you know, putting out these things, and we weren't saying they were bad. We were just saying OSHA didn't have the authority to do that. Does. And then what I'm curious about what you mentioned, with Sandra Day O'Connor is, is whether or not it's working something that the court is suppose to consider? Does that make sense? Like, I always thought it's just their job to say you're allowed to or you're not? Not? Hey, it's working. So you can see, does that make sense?
Eric Bohl 06:50
Yeah, that's a that's a good question. And so that's really not necessarily supposed to be part of the analysis. It's more, is it necessary? is more the the the issue the question here? So like, for the racial discrimination? I know people don't like to think of it this way. But affirmative action is a form of discriminating based on racial class, like based on based on what your race is. And it used to be called before that, before that name was arrived at. It used to be called like positive discrimination or compensatory discrimination. Those were two terms that were used for it before they came up with the term affirmative action. So it's like, yeah, that is what it is, it's just, we think it's really necessary to right the wrongs of the past. And to level the playing field, we have to put the thumb back on the scale of the other side. And we don't want to have to do that forever. Because at some point, you've got to move forward without discriminating either direction. That's kind of the goal of it. So when the court is looking at this, they're doing a balancing test of saying is, is the is the government displaying a compelling governmental interest? That makes it okay, that they are racially discriminating? Because it's necessary in order to fix this problem. Okay. And that's a very, very narrow, it's supposed to be at least a very, very narrow exception to the law, because under Title six, the actual law says, You can't do essentially, Thou shalt not discriminate based on race. Okay. Okay. The direction any direction.
Sam Gedert 08:34
Okay, so So the primarily, the Supreme Court's job is use word necessary, and I'm going to use it permissible, like first and foremost, they say, Hey, you're allowed to or not allowed to do that, based on what the rules the law says. But they are, then what you're saying, if I understand it correctly, is that they are then able to say, Well, you're not allowed to, but we're gonna let you to because there's a compelling case, for good being done. Is that
Eric Bohl 09:09
a fair assessment? Actually, I mean, in kind of a general broad, layman's terms, I think that's more or less accurate. Now. Me and you know, being a lawyer, of course, we're pedantic and we like to, you know, pick apart the all the exact words of it, but like the, it's the default rule in a racial, interracial racial discrimination law is the plain meaning of the law has to be followed, right. First less, yes, like and that is very clear. You cannot discriminate based on race is what it says. But then they apply what's called strict scrutiny to that and that is a judicially created standard. And it's like a lens that you look at a law through and you say, All right, you know, no law is 1/1000 person Absolutely. Like, right, you know, freedom of speech is very clear in the Constitution. But there are some places where they said, okay, but we get that there are some places where that doesn't actually really make sense, we got to be really careful about that. And that's where we'll apply a lens that we call strict scrutiny. And that means we will look at it and say, it is the default is going to be that this law can't stand up that that this doing what you're trying to do can't happen, unless you can show that there is a compelling governmental interest to remedy this wrong or to you no reason to do it this way. And that the solution that the government is proposing is as narrowly tailored as possible to do that specific thing. You know, and if it if it can't do, if it can't meet either those, then it the the law is struck down, you know, that the effort to use racial preferences would be struck down, if it was not, in order to achieve a compelling interest, or it was not narrowly tailored enough to do that, without collateral damage. Okay, so that's kind of the way that they will look at it is, it's gonna fall unless you can prove these things. And we're, you know, we're very skeptical, and we're going to look at it with a presumption, we're gonna strike it down, unless you can show otherwise. And right now, the only permissible reason that the court has allowed to use racial preferences for school admissions is to create a diverse student body. And that's why so much of the argument is about, is this. Is that still a compelling interest? You know, is diversity itself a compelling reason to racially discriminate? And if so, is this specific way that Harvard or UNC is applying that its its admission standards, the most narrow way you could possibly achieve that?
Sam Gedert 11:59
Okay, one final thing that we'll need to move on, that I'm trying to steal, just trying to get get my my eye? Are there? Is there any empirical evidence brought to bear that? Because we're saying this is good, now you're using the word diversity is good, are there? So two questions, I guess one is it relates to if diversity is the end. Two things, is there a defense of why diversity is good? And two, is there a definition of diversity that involves math?
Eric Bohl 12:41
Those are very interesting questions that the court really dove into deeply. Right. So there were a bunch of quotes pulled out of the argument on Monday from justice. Well, several justices, but especially Justice Thomas, who he's the only holdover from that decision 19 years ago, the entire rest of the court has turned over since then. But he also is the second black person to ever be on the court. And, but he's very conservative, and he is very, very skeptical of racial preferences. And he was he really was grilling the attorneys for Harvard and for UNC, and said, like, what is diversity? I haven't heard a definition of it that I understand. It doesn't make any sense to me. And he was really trying to pin them down on. So what exactly is it that you say, is so valuable about the diversity based on skin color? Can we can you actually show me that that makes a difference? And the outcomes of you know, how your classes, you know,
Sam Gedert 13:49
the strategy between people where they do five years and 10 years after graduation is
Eric Bohl 13:53
exactly. And they were very, they were really struggling with that? You know, that's really hard. It's, and there have been some academic studies have shown some benefits, some, you know, empirical benefits to having diverse classes and that kind of thing. But yeah, it's not as straightforward as many would like it to be. The data is not ultimately clear. Right, that just having that is, you know, that big difference. And I think one of the things that really struck stuck out to me about these arguments that I've always that's always really resonated with me is that privilege in, in, in settings like at Harvard, it has a whole lot more to do in many ways with your socioeconomic status, the color of your skin, and they were pointing this out a lot that I think it said, I think they said that there were 15 times as many people at Harvard that came from the top quintile, the top quintile of incomes then came from the bottom quintile, right not 50% More 1515 times more. Right, right. And you know, the differences in experience life experiences and whatnot that you get from someone from the bottom quintile to the top might be a lot bigger than two people both in the top quintile of income, who one was white and one was black. Yeah, that was a lot of the argument. And I think there may be a lot of validity to that. But you know, the thing is, after all this argument, the news media and many people are just treating this as a foregone conclusion that it's going to be struck down. Right. I don't think that that's necessarily that clear. Yeah, it very, it's more likely than not, that affirmative action will be curtailed significantly, but it's not a done deal at all, because there's a lot of disagreement within the court, too.
Sam Gedert 15:40
Yeah, it's gonna be interesting to watch. And I think that I'm glad you brought, it's going to get there's the case, and there's what's going to how it's going to get framed. And it and as fortunate as it is, it's going to get framed as a black white thing. And that's not necessarily what it is. And, and, and like you said, it's sort of like, I don't know, it's like arguing about creating diversity on Mars. Like, if you get to go to Mars, you're already like, part of something that is widely different than the experience vast majority of the population in this country, much less the world is having. So it's a little sort of,
Eric Bohl 16:27
I don't know. Yeah. And I think when a lot of people say, Look, if you let in, you know, 99% of your class, that all thinks the same way. But that some of them have different colors of skin, they're not really receiving a diversity of viewpoint at all. Yeah. And ideological diversity and actual, like socio economic diversity, really may be of more value to the outcomes of your students, if you're talking, the things they always bring up, or like, oh, the discussions in class are more robust, if people came from different backgrounds and whatnot, and I think that can be very true. exam can fall in the trap of saying, well, we looked at the Pantone shades of the colors of the people coming in, and therefore we are diverse. And if they all think the same, they're not going to get any diversity of discussion in their classes. Yeah, that's what allowed the court was talking was very skeptical about Yeah,
Sam Gedert 17:24
yeah. Well, it will be very interesting, interesting to watch. And to observe. It does lead into our next topic, you know, as everything is getting framed in the terms of ideology. And and I've been pretty pleased with with this court to not just be sure the Hobbs decision, you know, obviously, that was the watershed decision. But even that is not the tumbling of the dominoes that everybody thought it was going to be once it happened. But this has not just been a knee jerk, conservative court, for as conservative as it allegedly is. And the reason that I bring that up as it relates to our next topic of ideology. Why have we seen? So Eric, you you started in Congress, sort of at the beginning of the birth of extreme?
Eric Bohl 18:24
Yeah. Sure. It goes way back,
Sam Gedert 18:26
right. The birth of
Eric Bohl 18:28
this current cycle? Right. Yeah. The current flavor of extremes, I guess. Yeah.
Sam Gedert 18:32
Yeah. And that was the 2010. You know, he was at the biggest freshman class ever.
Eric Bohl 18:39
I don't know that ever, but certainly in the past 50 years or something. Yeah. I was 16. A story about this morning or this this evening? I think it was, like 87 Plus freshmen in that class. It was huge. Yeah. Yeah,
Sam Gedert 18:52
just just incredible. And since then, we've just seen this steady march, between less and less cooperation, less and less, discussion more and more getting into our own corners. And, and as Eric and I often do, we sort of scratch our chins and ask ourselves why. And one of the reasons why that we want to talk about tonight was, so if we haven't talked about before, I used to run a software company that built custom software for congressional offices to help them manage congressional offices, all the sort of logistical aspects of that. Excuse me, Eric is one of our customers. And one of the reasons that that I started the company was because I wanted congressional staff to be able to focus on the relationships more. I wanted them to be able to focus on the nuances more I wanted them to be able to sort of get the trains running and then be able to go, you know, read the New Republic and the Atlantic and all the things that we've been talking about And none of that happened. It was a noble effort. I thought so. But but but the reason, what we were talking about and observing, I'm really interested to get Eric's take on this, what I observed and saw was that, first off, unless you've worked in a congressional office, you really can't quite comprehend the amount of talking about diversity, the volume and the complexity of the amount of information that is just flying atcha you used to it's like a game show. You know, like, Okay, we've got the next up is the, you know, local union pipe fitters, 407. And they're mad about benefit, you know, and you'd be like, Okay, let's go. And then the next it was, you know, Ducks Unlimited. And then it was the, you know, handicapped, you know, it just and on and on and on, and on and on. And, and, and what I saw was that ideology, knee jerk ideology became a great simplifier. It allowed the folks I was observing to, intellectually, allegedly, intellectually, I guess I should say, comfortably seat themselves in a place of certainty. Where they would say, hey, you know, what, I really don't need to read that study, or that study, or that book or this book, or talk to that person or talk to this person. And I honestly am saying this with understanding and empathy. Because there's just so much, and everybody's mad at ya, everybody, everybody's mad at Yeah, you know, even if you're giving them what they want. They want more, you know,
Eric Bohl 21:53
it's true. You can't make anyone happy. That's, you gotta give up on that pretty fast.
Sam Gedert 21:59
Yeah, yeah. So, you know, if I were to be like, well, you know, what, screw it. I'm just going to be an idealogue. And convinced I'm right, because I said so. And, you know, Barry Goldwater agrees. So therefore, I know what I'm talking about, you know, how did you see ideology played as it relates to sort of the intellectual easy way out, if that makes sense when you're during
Eric Bohl 22:22
your time? Yeah. I think that's really an interesting point you bring up because I like the way that you talked about, like, kind of a shortcut is interesting, because, as you describe the way that it is, being a member of Congress or working for a member of Congress, you are expected to be an expert in everything, everything. Yep. And you're expected to be able to recall the details of whatever it is, right. Every time you bump into that guy from the pipe fitters Union on the sidewalk. Yeah, they expect, you know, they'll say, hey, well, I got it. Where are we on? Ah, you know, HR 1476. Right?
Sam Gedert 23:02
Which first I realize that there are 1475 Before that, actually had to know,
Eric Bohl 23:09
oh, number, they get up to like four or 5000. Right in Congress? And you're like, I don't know, like, right. And it's not because I don't care. It's because the brain has limited capacity to, to be an expert on anything. And you know, the reality is, most members of Congress are very well versed in a lot of different things. It really, but they, they may have 1015, things that they really, truly care about. And then another 85 things that they are expected to keep in their working memory, like, where are we on this, and I have to pretend like I really care about it, when I bump into that guy on the sidewalk, or when they come in for a meeting or whatever. And those things, they, I don't mean to say they don't care. It's just you know, everybody has a limited capacity for things they're really interested in. But you have to take some shortcuts, yes, like intellectual shortcuts to be like, alright, I don't know the ins and outs of every little thing about this. But if I apply my frame of reference my filter to these topics, where do I probably come down? You know, and that's kind of how you have to do a lot of things. So I think you're you are right, that having some set of beliefs, some structure that you're looking at the world through, helps you take, you know, I hate the word shortcut, because it makes it sound like you're, you know, skipping out on the real work. It's really more just presumptions, you know, I assume, I will come down on the side of this thing that I believe in more often than not, and so I'm going to default to that unless I'm convinced otherwise. So yeah, I think you are right that there is everybody has some some way of doing that.
Sam Gedert 24:57
Yeah, and I think what we saw what we've seen In the last 10 years, is just a continual, it's gone from a helpful framework to Hartzler smash like, it's, it's just become this sort of I don't mean anything about your former boss, I'm just saying that like that's like, it's just like, Oh, I'm a Republican, you're a union. Okay, I hate you. You know, going through
Eric Bohl 25:25
some analysis. Exactly. Anything shortcuts have been more short.
Sam Gedert 25:29
Yeah, yeah. And I think we're seeing the evidence. And you mentioned it's not so people don't do the work. And we're seeing evidence of them not doing the work. We haven't passed a budget of, you know, a full budget of substance and however long we're incapable of sticking to the single topic rule, which the fact that it's a rule, just, you know, is a joke in and of itself.
Eric Bohl 25:55
Yeah, and people just do not. I think that the, the incentives to be more loud and brash about things are making it so that you're like, well, what's the point of really digging into the weeds of this issue? That again, my big supporters don't really care about? Yeah, I personally am not super interested in? Why should I spend so much time learning all the ins and outs of that of that issue?
Sam Gedert 26:27
Yeah. I, when I remember, you know, when I was in freshman here at Ohio State freshman philosophy, 101, or whatever. And I remember, you know, hearing about the prisoner's dilemma, and, and thinking like, oh, that's, that's kind of interesting. And I it, it's tough, it astounds me or not, but everything's the prisoner's dilemma anymore. You know, which is that idea of if if everybody does something to benefit everybody, everybody will benefit. But if you only do something to benefit, You, only, you will benefit, but you will benefit. Everybody does that thing. You know, and that's what we see.
Eric Bohl 27:08
Short term interests versus long term interests is something we've talked about a lot. And it's essentially the same thing there. You know, well, over the next 30 years, would it be better if every time someone was presented with this choice, they chose option B? Yeah, that probably would be better. But in the next 30 minutes, it's a lot better for me to choose Option A. Right? Yeah, they're gonna choose Option A and lead them down the wrong long term road. Yeah, almost every single time.
Sam Gedert 27:38
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And why I think one of the, I can't remember who it was, I have to look it up and maybe put it in the show notes. But there was a thing, it was a sociologist, that my wife was telling me about that. It says that we always narrate our stories, where we are either the victim or the victim, or the hero was never the villain. And I think that that, that the road back the road forward, I'm not sure what involves that recognition of, hey, I'm kind of part of the problem. Doesn't need to be self loathing. It doesn't need to be, you know, sackcloth and ashes. And, you know, but it has have to, the frustrating part is is and I don't know if it'd be helpful if he did or didn't do. But it's an unwillingness to admit that they're even playing a game, that there's even any sort of like, oh, no, I'm just being totally rational and totally let you know, I'm just that, you know, as opposed to like, Hey, come on, buddy. What do you want for me? Like, this is a tough, you know, because it is, it's a tough job. It's a really tough job,
Eric Bohl 28:49
and having to pretend like you are an expert in everything, rather than being like, you know, what, I'm not real sure about this one. Can you give me some guidance? You know, either Yeah, you're never allowed to say that, rather than you're showing weakness, and you're admitting that you might not know everything, and that maybe someone else might have a point. And that seems to be completely verboten anymore. And also, you know, you were saying that, that people have this inability to admit their own weaknesses and mistakes. We saw this this weekend, when Nancy Pelosi husband was attacked, and everybody was, you know, going on Twitter and going on TV and having their statements and whatnot. And James Comer, James Comer, who is a Republican from Kentucky. I've met a couple times actually, he was nice guy. But he went on some show and he said, Yeah, we all need to tone it down a little bit. I even need to turn it down myself. It's not good for our country for all of us to always be ratcheted all the way up. And so predictably, and so disappointingly, everybody lost their reaction was ca He admitted is his fault, right? Why don't you applaud this guy for being? Yeah, look, I let me hold up my hand and say, Yeah, I need to fix it too. Right. But no, it was like, ah, let's jump on this guy pylon because he admitted it. Yeah, so frustrating. Yeah,
Sam Gedert 30:16
yeah. Yeah, it is. And where I think that, you know, the approach that I think we're trying to take care of Get Smart politics is that we've all got a role to play in this, we've all got more to learn, I think, to me, the real and this will get into our final point, the smart read that we're gonna be looking into. I'm really hopeful that the 21st century is sort of is is the psychological age, in the sense that we really, we don't really have a good understanding of how we work as as as human being bio electric machines. And there are so many things that that have to do with habit and learning. And you know, how we go about the world? That there there are a lot of things that are just they're not up for debate, like, bias is something that that exists, it is you know, there's nobody it one of my favorite lines from my favorite the, you know, there is every viewpoint is a view from a point, you know, that we when we're saying, well, everybody else has bias, but I'm, I'm doing all right. No, we're not doing all right. We're all looking at through a keyhole. You know, and to that end, there's fortunately a pretty steady stream of scholars, of which Eric and I are not diving into the research behind some of this and, and whether it's the brain science or decades of sociology experiments that we've been been, they've been looking at, and the next book that we're gonna be looking at, it's called how mines change by David MC Rainey.
Eric Bohl 32:10
Mcrainey, Granny Mcrainey.
Sam Gedert 32:13
I think Mcrainey just came out in June of this year. Eric had pre ordered it and forgotten he had pre ordered it. And it showed up on his doorstep one day, and he's like, got it. Somebody sent me a gift. Oh, nice.
Eric Bohl 32:26
Yeah, yeah, it happens. My wife wouldn't when that happened. She was like, welcome to bioworld. She gets like a whole shipment of those every week that she's like, we're actually
Sam Gedert 32:38
thinking of instituting a policy here that when something shows up, if you can't say what's in it before you open the box, you have to send it back.
Eric Bohl 32:50
That's a great. It's a great policy. As soon as I order something, I forgot what oh, yeah, exactly. 30 seconds later, I don't remember.
Sam Gedert 33:00
Right, we need a new lemon juice. So how am i It looks really good. So how mine is changed now that it finally showed up for us? The surprising science of belief, opinion and persuasion? Eric, you're a little bit into it. Can you give us a little bit of a teaser? So we know what we're going to be looking at over the next couple of weeks?
Eric Bohl 33:19
Yeah, the basic point is this guy that wrote the book is he for a long time thought mines do not change. You can't change someone's mind. That's just not a not a possibility. And you should stop trying to basically and he wrote writes this very popular blog, I can't remember the name of it at the moment. But he, he's been a fairly big figure that you probably have heard of a time or two if you've paid attention to this type of stuff very much. But anyway, he kind of encountered a situation in which somebody who was just hardcore dyed in the wool in a conspiracy theory was was able to change his own mind and realize, you know, what, that actually doesn't make any sense and admitted it to, you know, publicly to his followers and said, Hey, I was deep in this. I looked at the evidence, I met the people, it's just not true. And he was fascinated by that. And so he dove into how did that happen? And what's the science behind that? And are there lessons we can take from that about the future? How can we convince other people to take another look at their beliefs and potentially change their minds? And maybe a third of the way into it is really good very fascinating approach. I think I think you'll really enjoy reading it
Sam Gedert 34:36
Excellent. Well yeah, I'm excited. I think the thing that is always not challenging from a challenging to read or consume standpoint, but from a habit it be part of a larger solution standpoint, is that it's self selecting like this book about like, hey, figure out how to work your mind works. is self selecting people to read it that are only interested in doing that? She's like, you know, nobody's at the bar trying to stop drinking, like, you know, right, you know,
Eric Bohl 35:12
yeah. And in what's interesting about this is a lot of what he talks about at least the first quarter of the book, as I was looking at some people who have tried implementing some newer tactics, to help change other people's minds who were not interested in it, you know, they didn't already come and raise their hand and say, hey, please help me change my mind. And it is sort of in the context of politics, how can you go out there, and rather than just bombard people with another 100 million dollars of TV ads? Roll off? You know, no one even pays attention? Is there something you actually could do? That would make them be like, Oh, I hadn't thought of it that way. Yeah, maybe I will consider your side. And that's what he's seeing. There is actually some evidence that you can do that.
Sam Gedert 36:03
Actually, I'm, I'm very interested to see that because I do think, in other situations, or settings or discipline, so to speak to you know, those things are often what you just mentioned that that leading through vulnerability, and yes, I do that too. Or some form of understanding of what your side is dealing with, you know, some form of like, man, you know, I can't imagine what it's like to have to do what you do to, you know, and and recognize that. So yeah, I'm very excited to see what it is all about. Yeah.
Eric Bohl 36:43
Like, it is very interesting to talk about. Yeah, girls. Yeah. My wife. And I've already had several really interesting discussions about this. Even a couple of weeks, she was like, No, that's not possible. I don't want to hear it. I don't want to see. Stuff the guy was talking about she's like, that's not true. Famous perceptions and optical illusions and that type of stuff. She's like, No, don't even joke to me. It was really interesting. Okay,
Sam Gedert 37:09
excellent. Excellent. Excellent. Well, my friend, we got through an entire 3040 however many minutes it was without talking about the election that is going to happen the first Tuesday after the first Monday. Which by the way, if you didn't already know, that's the way they describe it. Explain which they were supposed to vote. So we won't get into it, but I'm going to leave you with a thought. Okay. Why is it that so many people are convinced that so much of the political system is corrupt? Yet everybody insists that we still go vote? You're like, Ah, it's terrible. Get out there and vote.
Eric Bohl 37:57
It's a that's a legitimate question.
Sam Gedert 37:58
Yeah. Excellent. Yeah. Yeah. Well, if I can do nothing, but leave you with good things to think about. I've done my job as your smart host. Perfect. Alright, we'll see you in a week. I don't know if we'll have the book done by then but we'll certainly be talking about it. So we will talk to you soon.
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INTRO
Show Notes
- Smart Book: Spiral Dynamics Integral by Don Beck.
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—Eric
Raw Transcript
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Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
After months of little news out of Ukraine, everything seems to have hit the fan in the past two weeks. How will we find a way out of the current situation and what’s the path forward look like? Sam and Eric also discuss a media company that’s trying to help Americans find less-biased news, plus some mental shortcuts to help evaluate news stories.
Show Notes
-
Ad Fontes Media
-
Hanlon’s Razor
-
Upcoming Smart Book: Spiral Dynamics - Mastering values, leadership and change, by Don Beck and Christopher Cowan.
Subscribe to the Podcast
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Subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or Spotify.
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If you're pretty podcast-savvy, copy and paste this URL into your podcast app: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/838219.rss
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If you like what we’re doing here, please consider upgrading your membership to support us!
Thank you!
—Eric
Raw Transcript
Sam Gedert 00:05
Well, greetings. Get smart audience it is your host, Sam Gedert, here with author of Get Smart politics, Eric Bohl, how're you doing today Eric?
Eric Bohl 00:13
Doing all right, good to see you, Sam.
Sam Gedert 00:15
Likewise, likewise. So give you a heads up on what we're going to be doing. Obviously, we're going to be doing the deep dive from the cheat sheet and today we're going to be talking about Ukraine. And how does this end is kind of what we're thinking, we've got a smart tactic update that we're going to be doing. Some of you remember from our reading challenge this, both Eric and I are glad it's over. Where we use the media bias chart that likely a lot of you have seen, but you might not be familiar with the company behind that. We're not affiliated with them in any way. But we are just kind of, we have similar paths or similar goals in mind. So we want to give you an update on what's going on with them. For the first time, we're going to be doing smart terms. Again, we're not your vocabulary teachers. But if we could possibly reinject what we think are some smart terms or terms that help us to engage more smartly, we want to do that. And then we've also identified a new book that we're going to be reading and reviewing for coming weeks. So that's a quick heads up for what we're going to be doing. With that, let's dive in to our deep dive, which is Ukraine, just to tee it up real quick. It's getting to the point where the last couple of weeks, so much has happened. And I'll turn it over to Eric for sort of the details on that. But as a very casual observer of war, as most Americans get to be. I really never gave much thought to how this would end other than Ukraine just getting annexed. And that would be the end of it. Eric, would you walk us through a little bit of what's been going on in the last few in the last week or so that that brought you to your your your outline on Monday?
Eric Bohl 02:04
Yeah, and that's the reason I chose to put it in here this week, as opposed to other times we really haven't talked about this. And a couple months, I think, pretty early on, I said a few things about the situation, Ukraine, but then we'd kind of let it go. Because it basically seemed to be developing into a stalemate, really, nothing had changed since the middle of the summer, up until a few weeks ago, when Ukraine really started mounting a organized counter offensive and actually pushing the Russians back on their heels some. And that led to, in the past, say 10 days, things really finally, as I said, in the Monday morning cheat sheet, they seem to have reached a tipping point or an inflection point. We're at this point now where No, something has to give. And no one seems to know what that is. And that's mainly caused by Vladimir Putin, making some pretty strong affirmative statements. After really sitting back for a while he came out and said that he is open to using any and all weapons in their arsenal, including nuclear weapons, and said this is not a bluff, which made a lot of people say, Well, that's exactly what's on his bluffing says, who knows. The fact that he said it's on a bluff doesn't mean it's off. But nobody's really excited about testing that right now. And so in that at either in that same speech, or within a day or two of that, he also announced that they were going to mobilize the citizenry. And that's a draft they're introducing a draft for young men in Russia. That's the first time since World War Two that Russia has instituted a draft, adding several 100,000 more troops into the conflict in Ukraine. And that made everybody just head for the exits. And we had all these videos and pictures of Russian men loading up on every plane out of town, out of the country and crossing every border crossing, just being swamped with people trying to get out of dodge before they got conscripted. And then we had a bunch more really quick succession things after that, where Russia announced it was going to have a referendum in three, I believe, of the newly conquered territories and Ukraine and say, Do you want to join part of Russia and they had soldiers go around door to door to collect the votes, no secret ballot whatsoever. And the votes were like Saddam Hussein level numbers, it was like 99 and a half percent said, Yeah, we want to join you, which is what you get when you collect votes at gunpoint. And so part of the reason for that was he I guess, lib. The Russian nuclear playbook says that they are allowed to use nuclear weapons in defense of the homeland of Russia. But since Ukraine since these territories were technically not part of Russia proper, they felt like oh, if we, you know, go through the go through the motions of annexing them into Russia, then if Ukraine fires a single bullet on that land, we now have the legal pretext the legal ability to use nuclear weapons and retaliation, and, you know, claim on paper, that that was somehow legal now. So anyway, a whole bunch of huge developments there. And then the Nord Stream pipeline mysteriously blew up a few days ago. And then the one right next to it, you know, the Nord Stream one Nord Stream two, it blew up to there were three different explosions deep under the sea. So sounds like pretty likely that Russia, sabotage those to try to make your play Europe in a more difficult situation with their energy going into the winter. So a whole bunch of things all happening at once and the threat of nuclear weapons, may the US Embassy embassy, and the threat of conscript conscription, may the US Embassy in Moscow tell all Americans to get out of Russia, if they're at all, at all able to, to do so. So, anyway, a whole lot of different things all of a sudden happened at once. After that stalemate had had been the situation for several months, all together, it just all happened. And so now we just feel like something's about to change.
Sam Gedert 06:22
Yeah, the thing that I find most interesting, and as I mentioned, you know, we're secure in our, our homeland here in America. And and other than generally, platitude, null statements of supporting independence and provide, you know, we're gonna provide weapons and things like that. There really aren't a lot of divergent political views on it. There really is not well, we nobody's saying boots on the ground. Nobody's saying we need to get more involved. Nobody's saying. And I'm really interested to see if that maintains the case. Moving forward, because it's, it's, as we get past the midterms, and the presidential cycle heats up. I'm just really interested to see if there's anything that that starts to give as far as a difference of opinion about how to handle this, because it
Eric Bohl 07:26
really isn't. It seems like the biggest difference, the biggest point of disagreement right now is there are there's a sizable number of people on the right, who are mad about the amount of money that we're sending to Ukraine, for their defense and kind of saying, I mean, not that Putin is a good guy necessarily. Neither American version, there are some bad guys over there, too. They're pretty corrupt as well. Right? And is this really where we need to be worried? Yeah, like, say America first. You know, we got more problems at home, we need to take care of nothing. But just consider, if for whatever reason, Vladimir Putin believes he is backed into a corner and he has no more choices. And he uses a tactical nuclear weapon, a small battlefield nuke even as an, you know, not even to kill people. But just as a demonstration, even. How does that change the analysis? And it really, you know, what, if that happens a week before the November election, not that this is all about how our elections are affected, but it could really throw everything into a blender, and we're at one of the probably top five most likely times in the past, you know, 80 years that a nuclear weapon may be used right now. Yeah, you know, Cuban Missile Crisis, this and a couple of other things.
Sam Gedert 08:46
So they still do the danger clock.
Eric Bohl 08:48
The do they do that doomsday clock? Yeah. Well, so this is kind of annoying to me, but they've kind of turned it into more of a climate change thing. It really was meaningful. Initially. Yeah. I'd like to see that be more about actual threat of nuclear annihilation. Yeah,
Sam Gedert 09:11
that's terrible. Yeah, cuz this is the first time in however long that probably actually was, was moving.
Eric Bohl 09:18
Like a couple of minutes, two minute lesson. I think I saw it move within the past two or three years, because, you know, a little closer to midnight because of climate change. And I was just like, look, even if you think that's a problem, that's not what that clocks supposed to be for.
Sam Gedert 09:31
Yeah, it was. Yeah, that's too bad. Yeah, it's if you would have told me in my lifetime, we would have been talking about a land war in, in in, in Eastern Europe. I just, I wouldn't have believed it. And I think that's
Eric Bohl 09:50
what's making it so hard is no one knows. Like, there's no this is so far away from what we ever expected. No one even knows how to evaluate it.
Sam Gedert 09:58
Yeah, yeah, like Condi Rice has gone on. I don't know. She She specializes in Russia. Right?
Eric Bohl 10:07
Again, yep. Putin does do something dumb and uses a nuclear weapon to We then decide to go in. And what do we do? Yeah. Yeah, I just think there's so few people, anybody who thinks there who acts like they have a clear answer to that exam to you. Yeah, we just are everything. Everyone in DC and everyone running for office is honestly mortified that that happens, because they don't have an answer to that name more than you do. Yeah, yeah.
Sam Gedert 10:38
Yeah. And there's pretty safe territory to be had in the platitude null space. Like, nobody's gonna, you know, you're not gonna get too upset by saying that I think is very important that we, you know, support blah, blah, blah. You know, so there is is is comfortable ground there where people don't feel like they need to venture too far. I just take it as a commons.
Eric Bohl 10:56
Yeah. And there's the shifting alliances is hard to there. There's now some talk about maybe doing a fast track to try to get Ukraine into NATO, because of the danger, but I think that's unlikely because it has to be a unanimous vote. Right? And is this really when you want to be right, admitting yourself to boots on the ground? Like,
Sam Gedert 11:20
it's like buying insurance after you've crashed the car? No, you don't get to do this burning down,
Eric Bohl 11:25
you get it? I just don't know. Like that. That is really anything that a lot of the countries are going to want to join are going to want to sign up for. Like, yeah, we'd like to be in a nuclear war. Yeah. Yeah. So I doubt that will happen. But, you know, the UN Security Council doesn't have a whole lot of sway here, because Russia has a veto there. Yep. They're one of the five original countries there that have a veto. And so they're not gonna do anything. Right. So there's just everybody's between a rock and a hard place now. And no one knows the way out. Yeah.
Sam Gedert 12:00
Yeah. Yeah. Well, with that in my my, my my trademark abrupt transition, we'll move on to the smart tactic update. So a few weeks ago, when we did our smart Reading Challenge, where we said, hey, it's such a great idea to read things from both sides. That way, you get a really balanced approach. And Eric, and I put our money where our mouth was, and did that for for a week and a week of mind numbing, I believe in left and right. Reading. Yes. Just Wow, it's so much worse than we ever thought. But where we got that analysis came from a site is called Add Fonts. Which is actually like when people just say, oh, let's do something in Latin, everybody's like, I don't know what how do you say that? And how do you proceed? So I but it means it's Latin for from the source. And it is, you're probably familiar with the media bias chart, you've probably seen it somewhere. And it's pretty handy. It's kind of a fun, you know, sort of topic of conversation or just fun to tool around. And that's really grown into far beyond on that. There was a woman who founded it, just because she was tired of all the same things we're tired of. And it's grown into a decent sized company where a couple of things are happening that we want to do make our listeners aware of. And we'll put the link in the show notes. But when they're doing a we funder round of funding, it's not a ton of money, things couple of $100,000 are trying to get in, they should be doing pretty well with that. So if that's anything you're interested in contributing to, you could you could do that. They're also hiring, which, which I gotta say, I was sort of giving some consideration to until I realized all the things I'm already doing, and some of which are getting paid for some have not. But they're hiring reviewers. Specifically, they're looking for bilingual Spanish speakers as well, but also just just regular English speakers to go through and read and review articles. And, and I wanted to just highlight a couple of their stated goals or part of their mission. Because in addition to the the media chart, which is now an interactive media platform, I'm not exactly sure but you can put in different different, you could Hey, compare these five or that's five or whatever. So that's expanded, but they also are starting to provide data to advertisers and other platforms that are looking for ways to indicate bias or to filter out bias, which I think is really a lot of opportunity. Eric, I'm curious to hear you know, It's one of those things. It's, it's right now it's neater than it is useful, if that makes sense, but I was interested to see both from the time on the readers challenge and just in general, how the site or the chart has been been helpful to you if it has.
Eric Bohl 15:18
Yeah, I think that it's interesting that they're maybe trying to make it a little more of a interactive thing, rather than a novelty, you know, something you might actually use on your daily life, to get a better understanding of what news you're consuming, and how it's viewed by different people who have actually read this stuff. And say, like, I want to read about the Ukrainian situation today, maybe I can go to ad fonts and, you know, use some of their tools to find some sources that would give me what I'm looking for that is in the right, you know, the Right Sector of their chart for what I'm interested in, it would be kind of interesting to see if they're able to do that, and give you more of an a stronger belief that you're getting quality information, and maybe that increases the likelihood that people go to better quality sources, rather than some of the trash that's out there. Yeah. You know, I hope that that can be successful. I don't know, it's an interesting idea, at least to try to do something there.
Sam Gedert 16:21
Yeah, I'm interested to see if they, I would like to see a standard, sort of a ubiquitous Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval Type ranking systems, sort of like a, you know, like we have in the movie theaters, or, you know, with something that says, hey, this is just this level of bias, you know, and it doesn't mean that it's wrong, it doesn't mean that it's inaccurate, it just means that it's got some bias.
Eric Bohl 16:51
And that's part of what I think the problem so far has been with, like fact checkers, and warning labels on say, Twitter and Facebook and whatever, is a lot of people don't trust the people that are putting those labels on. Yep, because they have a not not a unearned feeling that they are, they have their thumb on the scale for one side of the aisle or the other. And that's what I like about this is that they're really trying to go through some substantial procedural hoops to make sure that you can trust what they're saying is not actually weighted one way one way or the other, are really trying to give you the, the honest truth of where this lies on the on the chart.
Sam Gedert 17:37
Yeah, yeah. Yeah. We talked about it in the when we did the reading challenge, but they've got for the Arctic, and they're not reviewing every article everywhere, but but they're quite know the methodology of what they're selecting and how they're doing a lot. And that's what they're hiring right now, or reviewers. But they've got someone who has, and I suppose they'll need to be transparent about, hey, they've got somebody who's a self identified conservative, well, how do we know and you know, and we check their voting record, or, you know, but they've got somebody who's a self identified, right, left and center. And to me having three people read something and come to some kind of consensus about its bias is, that's, that's, that's as good as you're gonna get.
Eric Bohl 18:24
Yeah. And I've been reading, I was just listening to some stuff a couple days ago about how there's a lot of research about where diversity of viewpoint actually makes a difference. And that there have been studies on federal judge panels. So when when things get appealed in the federal court, federal appeals court system, the first place it goes typically as a three court three judge panel, and I guess they're these researchers looked at, do you get what do you get when you have three Democrat appointees, three Republican appointees, and a mix of the two and whatnot, you know, and you actually, they found that you get much more left leaning opinions. When you have a three left leaning judge panel, then if you have two Democrat appointees and one Republican appointee on the panel, just even though they can't do anything to stop it, because it's two to one. If they wanted to go that direction, interesting. They still end up finding a way to bring more moderation into the discussion, and vice versa, on the right side as well. Right. And I think that that can be the case with a lot of these fact checking organizations. If you come into it with your own bias, like and I think some fact checkers and some rating, places have gotten have done a lot of harm to the industry over the past few years where they've gotten into political advocacy. and put it put it in the guise of a unbiased charter. Right? You know, like, example, like the Southern Poverty Law Center has this map that they put out of like all the the the organizations of hate? Well, you know, back in the 60s it was, if you were on that list, you're probably pretty bad, pretty bad news. And it's turned into like people we don't like, you know, that's not really helpful to the conversation, because then it cheapens everything you're saying and makes it just yet another partisan voice? So having some structural balance to not do that? Yeah, I think it's awful.
Sam Gedert 20:38
Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So if you want to check out ways to get involved there, obviously, if you want to join their refund, we funder campaign. And also, if you want to work for him there and I believe they're both paid and volunteer positions that they're looking for, I'm not sure. And again, we're not affiliated with, if you can't tell by my lack of depth of knowledge about them, we're not affiliated with them.
Eric Bohl 21:03
20 bucks an hour. So
Sam Gedert 21:05
yeah, yeah. To read, you know, to do what you might be doing anyhow. So
Eric Bohl 21:09
if any of you get a job with them, let us know exactly what it's like.
Sam Gedert 21:13
Yeah, absolutely. All right, for our next item. Again, we haven't done this before. But we've talked about it, this idea of smart terms. And again, our goal here is not to educate, but to remind, there are many things that Led Zeppelin is like this for me, like I forget how much I like Led Zeppelin and everyone I don't know, I feel like everybody every 18 months, you know, tangerine or something will come on. And I'm like, Oh my gosh, I love Led Zeppelin.
Eric Bohl 21:39
This does really good. Listen to this.
Sam Gedert 21:42
Right, exactly. And, and and some of these terms, some of these concepts are things that I forget about, or if I'm reminded of or, you know, and whenever I interject them into my overall memory overall, but my specific when I'm interacting with folks, and we're having some kind of discussion or debate, these are these are tactics or terms that are that are helpful for that. And Eric, I hadn't had mentioned one before. And there's actually two parts. This is a two parter. So the term that we're gonna be talking about as handlings. Razor, Eric, because if we always the movie with octopus, razor, content, contacts, contact, yeah, yeah, it's really like this when the whole like, so apparently, there are multiple razors out there. So one of you could explain to us, you know, what a razor is. And other than that, then, then specifically what handlings razor he is, and how that might be useful in some of our discussions with with people as politics and public policy.
Eric Bohl 22:49
Yeah, and I think these type of things are, are really helpful for people like us who are interested in looking at the deeper side of politics and trying to figure out who's right and who's wrong. And something I think you have to have, everybody already sort of has their rules of thumb. But these, that's essentially what a razor is a philosophical razor Arese, or just like a razor blade. And a philosophical razor is essentially just a rule of thumb that helps you eliminate the majority of the options. Right off the bat by helping you slice off the parts that are unlikely explanations for something. That's basically the point of a razor. So really not that complicated. Outcomes razor razors with the less complicated solution is more likely to Yeah, what exactly? Okay, yeah. And so if you got something that would take, you know, 27 steps between here and there. And then you have another option that takes two steps between here and there, it's much more likely that the two step option is right, is true. So you can kind of toss out some of the more wild explanations for things that's much much, much less likely to be true. So handlings razor, this is one that a lot fewer people have heard of, because I guess it hasn't had a good movie made about it. So it's H A N L O N handlings razor. No one seems to really know for sure who Hamlin was. But that's okay. The rule of thumb is never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. And this is just something that I've always love to refer to in politics. And I think it's been becoming more and more important in the past few years, as conspiracy theories and, you know, deep explanations for why something might have happened because there's this cabal of people who had this secret plan to do A, B, and C because they're playing 12 dimensional chess, and they're 25 steps ahead of everybody else. And like, you know what, it's much more likely that they were just dumb, right, these fantasies They were trying their best but had no idea what they were doing, and made a mistake. And that's why this happened. And in politics, that is, I feel like nine times out of 10 Truly the explanation for why something was done, not because they had some 3d Chess nefarious plan, but because they really didn't think through all the alternatives, and they just kind of flew by the seat of their pants and came back to bite him.
Sam Gedert 25:28
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I see this, when people talk about the the sort of nefarious bureaucracy. Right, and that it's been put together for some specific purpose to to whether that's, you know, the suspension of liberty or you know, whatever it is that people are saying, the bureaucracy is doing. It ain't doing none of that. Like, it's just it's just limping along truck. Yeah. And I think the time Yeah, yeah, there's just, it's really complicated, because it has to be, like, you know, you just can't have an organization that is going to provide rules and directions for hundreds of millions of people without, you know, what, what somebody should write that down.
Eric Bohl 26:19
And I've seen that before that, like when they when social scientists survey all kinds of people to see who is more or less likely to believe in conspiracies, people who have worked for the government are the least likely to believe in governmental conspiracies, and really believe that's not because they're in on it. It's because they are not competent enough to do you. And it's also interesting, because people, the same people who will tell you, Oh, hey, there's this group of 25,000 people in the government who all kept a secret, and had this deep plan to make this such and such happen. are also the people who think the government's not competent to tie their shoes. Yeah, like, Well, which one isn't? Right, either. They're ultimately, the most competent people in the entire world, or they're not. It can't be both. Yeah.
Sam Gedert 27:13
Yeah. And this, I think, is really, really applicable as it relates to election fraud. The the the enormity of what would be required to do what's being alleged was done would require the the collusion and and rather savvy engagement, and and most importantly, silence of 10s of 1000s of people.
Eric Bohl 27:43
Yeah. You don't think one of those people would have taken $1,000 to spill the beans?
Sam Gedert 27:51
million I'm sure. Like, you know,
Eric Bohl 27:53
clearly would have been offered more than that. But right. Right. My point is, it would take so little for someone to say something. Exactly. We're going on it. Yeah, it just wouldn't be possible.
Sam Gedert 28:03
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. So why don't we do one one more on the tactics. And these are, these are two of my favorites. And this is. And this is a couplet, I suppose are bookended ones, empirical and anecdotal. And these are two terms that that I find incredibly helpful when when someone is it myself included, like asking myself like, Oh, is that empirical meaning? Is there evidence? Is there objective data that says that? Or is it anecdotal, meaning there's an anecdote or a story, or just someone saying that, or someone's multiple people saying that? And I think that this is really, really, I had some family visiting recently. And, and, and I don't like that, well, they said this, like, oh, who said what? You know, and, you know, in this kind of ties in with handguns razor, the they, the great day, and that's what just, well, that's just anecdotal evidence, there's not any data that says this true, or that's true.
Eric Bohl 29:14
What do people always say that the plural of anecdote is not data, you know, multiple anecdotes, make data. It's still if you've got a couple of one off stories, those are interesting, and they can be valuable for something they don't prove the overall point that this is now a big conspiracy or, you know, huge plot or an overall trend there to stories. Yeah, and again, that's fine. That doesn't mean they don't matter and, and I'm not also with handlooms razor I'm not saying conspiracies don't ever happen or exist, it's just much more likely than not, that's not what's going on. And these are just again, rules of thumb altogether, things ways to kind of evaluate when you're nuts. certain about something, here's a kind of a good way to pump the brakes a little bit and be like, Wait, well, okay, is that really anecdotes? If it's just a bunch of, you know, what you always see nowadays is in stories. I think this is a good way to look for for this. What's what you're talking about Sam, is it if you're reading a story and all the examples they give are someone on Twitter said, and then they put the tweet in there. You know, someone says everything on Twitter every five seconds. All right. That's not news. That's not rich data. That's just a random person saying something sprouting off. That doesn't make a trend. Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.
Sam Gedert 30:42
Exactly. So again, we're not trying to tell you that you don't know what empirical or anecdotal or you might not have known when handlings racer was. So that might be some education. But these are just reminders that you know, things that we can re interject or reintroduce into some of our conversations about public policy and political
Eric Bohl 31:03
discourse. For more things that are that have actual data associated with them. Look for if you come across something that is just a person's opinion, followed up by a bunch of example, tweets, have a little skepticism and be like, is that actually, you know, a data trend? Or is that just a handful of anecdotes that help this guy get his story out? By the end of the day? Yeah, yeah. And it can help you make a smarter evaluation before you share it on Facebook, with your followers or whatever.
Sam Gedert 31:34
Exactly, exactly. And in the category of making smarter evaluations, we've got a new book, that we haven't written a book, we're gonna read a book. But just to be clear,
Eric Bohl 31:45
I'm much easier. Eric wrote a book.
Sam Gedert 31:47
I've not written a lot of work. That's what I hear. So in this is an interesting one as it relates to so one of the things Eric and I have been trying to do is provide some narrative some context for how did we get here? And how can we evaluate where we are in a way that is that is helpful by helpful I mean, doesn't make me mind numbingly angry. Because that's a lot of times what I come away with, I either get angry, or I'm just like, gotcha, screw it, I'll just not listen to anything. And I'll just read, you know, Walden all day, and everything will be fine. Nothing against Walden by any threat. But but there's this, this this concept that I was introduced to a few years ago. And it was actually, I think, there's a sermon series at the church I was going through, which is pretty interesting, on a variety levels. But this concept, and some of you've heard of it, some of you haven't, I'm sure. It's called spiral dynamics. And there's a couple books on it, the one we're going to be looking at, it's just called spiral dynamics, mastering values, leadership and change. And without going into too much detail, because we haven't read the book yet. And we don't have too much detail. What this is, is a framework where we're able to look at all the different personality types, community types, tribes, if you will, in a way that that doesn't absolve behavior, or doesn't say, like, oh, everybody's fine, and they just need it. We just, I just need to understand the bad people or you know, it doesn't it's not doing that. But it is a framework where we can say, oh, okay, I can see how they got there, I can see why what they're doing is helpful in some settings. But I also see where we have to go next. And we can't stay there. And this concept has been everybody from, like the NFL, to some governments in Africa. It's a really, it's one of those things that has this very small sort of footprint of highly ardent supporters and people that utilize it. So we're going to be diving into that over the next couple of weeks. And I don't know, I it occurred to me as something that I thought would be helpful. As we're trying to figure it, there's so many things where I just I hear something like I was talking to this guy, guy, I've known for 20 years smart guy, you know, and he said that it's harder to be a Christian today than it was in the middle ages. And, and big if true. Yeah. And I'm just like, and I really wanted to be like, what part of being able like what, anyhow, my point being, how did he get there? How did he get there? You know it and again, not that I have to agree with him or somehow forgive or I don't know what, but but some sort of framework that in how is and I was having coffee with this is not a religious thing and several religious preferences, but I was having coffee with the Catholic priests here in town. And we're talking about the value of conservative organizations that wrestle with things for decades or in the cases of the Catholic Church centuries before they pivot, or before the
Eric Bohl 35:37
Small-c conservative?
Sam Gedert 35:38
yeah, yeah, exactly. And how that has value that that, you know, how long did it take before, you could go to Detroit and hear that Catholic mass and English, you know, hundreds of years. So my point being in that that's the type of perspective that spiral dynamics kind of helped me see how it's used to how other individuals perspectives, and communities and community perspectives are helpful to the whole and hurtful. But also, like I said, where do we go from here? So anyhow, um, if you want to read along, and actually, the book that I had originally told you about is different than the one we're gonna be doing. Eric, there's two of them. This one's just called spiral dynamics. The authors are Don Beck and Christopher Cowen. It came out, I think, oh, I want to say 2007.
Eric Bohl 36:35
Something like that. So I'll put a link in the show.
Sam Gedert 36:41
Yeah, that'd be great. So if anybody wants to read along, I think it's Eric, I'm really excited to talk with you about it. Because I think it's just right up your alley of sort of, like, interesting.
Eric Bohl 36:52
Yeah, no, I'm interested to read. I mean, I'm always interested in trying to figure out how to understand where other people are, and not because I want to convert to their point of view. But even even the cynical side of you is like, well, if you understand them better than you can defeat them on the field of intellectual more easily. Right, right. Right. You know, even if all you care about is winning this, it's still important. But if you are interested in you know, finding middle ground to then it's also important. So no matter which angle you come up from, I think it's valuable to have a better understanding of where how people got where they are.
Sam Gedert 37:27
Yeah, yeah, no, I agree. And it's not even finding middle ground. It's finding like, there's so many where I'm just like, I can't imagine what your brain is, like.
Eric Bohl 37:43
All getting worse about feeling that more strongly. Yeah. last few years. Yeah. sides of the spectrum. Yeah, I
Sam Gedert 37:50
just like I can't, like the thing that you just said, came out of an experience that I can't connect or, you know, I've got my own blind spots. And I get that, you know, so anyhow. Yeah, yeah, we're excited. So. So, tune in in the next, we'll see if we get through it in the next week, if we're able to talk about it next week, or the week after that, but so join us soon for spiral dynamics. With that, I just wanted to say it, we've been talking, I've been every night, after we do this, I always asked Erica, Hey, how are the numbers? How are the numbers? And they're growing? And I just wanted to take a moment and say, I want to see, I don't know, thanks almost seems kind of disingenuous because if you're listening more means you're getting more value. So I should say maybe you're welcome. Instead of
Eric Bohl 38:45
an interesting approach. We do we appreciate it.
Sam Gedert 38:50
We do. It's engaging. I guess it's encouraging to know that we're getting increased traction on things. So with that, we enjoy it. We appreciate having you and I think we're even tighter a little shorter on this one. We're under 40 minutes. So I'm gonna sign off real quick before we get to 40 minutes, and just say, Eric, thanks again. It's always a pleasure to chat with you and everyone out there. Let's see if we can't get a little smarter. Take care guys.
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Congress is poised to kick the can down the road one more time. Is this good or bad? Why does it matter if Congress passes appropriations bills? Sam and Eric dive into this topic, then review The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation, by Drew Westen. Finally, is there any actual hope that our political conversation improves? How long will it take?
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Was the Martha’s Vineyard migrant situation a cheap political stunt or a legitimate tactic to draw attention to a broken situation? A little bit of both? Sam and Eric dive in, then discuss their experience over the past week reading some… interesting “news” sources. Next week, Sam and Eric will discuss The Political Brain by Drew Westen - pick up a copy at the link below.
Our sources for the Smart Reading Challenge:
Associated Press (mostly fact reporting; middle/balanced on bias scale)
Los Angeles Times (more reliable/mix of fact and analysis; skews left)
Wall Street Journal (more reliable/mix of fact and analysis; skews right)
Palmer Report (less reliable/misleading info; hyper-partisan left)
Natural News (less reliable/misleading info; hyper-partisan right)
Links
Ad Fontes Interactive Media Bias Chart
Next week’s Smart Read: The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation, by Drew Westen
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Queen Elizabeth II was more than just a nice old lady - she was the embodiment of the British people, nation, and culture. Does America have anything similar that all of our citizens can revere?
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 was supposed to make government spending more predictable and reliable. In the 46 years since it went into full effect, it has objectively been a disaster. Just how bad is it? Sam and Eric discuss.
Everyone says it’s a good idea to “read news from all sides.” But how many of us do it? Starting today, Sam and Eric are taking a week to read the news from five sources - one from the middle, one from each political side of the news, and one from each political side of the more extreme “opinion” sites. Take the challenge yourself by reading these sites for the next week - we’ll discuss on Episode 5!
Associated Press (mostly fact reporting; middle/balanced on bias scale)
Los Angeles Times (more reliable/mix of fact and analysis; skews left)
Wall Street Journal (more reliable/mix of fact and analysis; skews right)
Palmer Report (less reliable/misleading info; hyper-partisan left)
Natural News (less reliable/misleading info; hyper-partisan right)
Links
Continuing Resolutions: Overview of Components and Practices
Appropriations Status Table: FY2021 and FY2022
Ad Fontes Interactive Media Bias Chart
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Sam and Eric talk through President Biden’s “Continued Battle for the Soul of the Nation” speech and the problems with writing off large swaths of fellow citizens as irredeemably lost. Then they dive into their second Smart Book, A Magnificent Catastrophe: The Tumultuous Election of 1800, America's First Presidential Campaign, by Edward J. Larson.
Get the book at the link above or find all the Smart Books we discuss at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/books.
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Thank you!
—Eric
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The hardest episode (aka the first) is out of the way, and Sam and Eric are in the groove! This week they discuss Biden’s student loan forgiveness program and its flaws, then talk about a Smart Book: The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion, by Jonathan Heidt. Get the book at the link above or find all the Smart Books we discuss at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/books. Come back next week for their discussion of the Election of 1800!
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Welcome to the first edition of our new podcast at Get Smart Politics! I’m collaborating with my longtime friend and brilliant thinker, Sam Gedert. Sam tells you a little about himself as we have a conversation about why I started Get Smart Politics, what we think is missing in today’s political media landscape, and some of the important news of the day. We also discuss
Let us know if you have any topics you’d like us to talk about on upcoming episodes!
Show Notes
Noam Chomsky vs. William F. Buckley
In Trump and Biden, a Choice of Teetotalers for President
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To subscribe to Get Smart Politics and get all of our content, visit https://getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
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Good Monday morning!
My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support!
This week’s poll:
Last week’s poll was Should Joe Biden run for President in 2024? I’m also including the results from two weeks ago, when I asked Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024?
Looks like you all are interested in some new blood on both sides!
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 8, 2022.
Today is 92 days until the November midterm elections (about 13 weeks).
We are 820 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).
Top Storylines
There is still such a thing as “too far” in politics
For the past few years, it has felt like there was no limit to how extreme politicians could get without paying a penalty at the ballot box. Candidates of both parties have said and done all manner of outrageous or over-the-line things, yet it seemed to only make them more popular with the base. Last week, in my home state of Missouri, this theory was put to a major test. Fortunately, the outrageous candidate lost.
Former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned after not even a year and a half in office, was a leading candidate for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. He created numerous scandals and outrages, including allegedly tying up his mistress in his basement, stripping her naked, spitting in her mouth, and photographing her for blackmail. In the ensuing divorce, his wife alleged he had physically and verbally abused her and their sons, even hitting their three-year-old son and knocking out a tooth. He turned his MAGA up to 11 for his Senatorial comeback bid, issuing an online ad in which he and a heavily-armed SWAT team executed a no-knock raid on a suburban house in order to hunt “RINOs,” or Republicans In Name Only. Despite all this, he led the field in most polls until only a month or so ago.
The “RINO Hunter” ad seemed to backfire on Greitens, turning off the same undecided voters he needed to achieve victory. Several large ad buys carpeted the airwaves in July to highlight his alleged abuse of his wife and children, which also had a clear effect on the polls. In the end, despite a half-endorsement from former President Donald Trump, he only earned 18.9% of the vote. Greitens finished almost 27 points behind the winner, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and only won three of the state’s 114 counties.
Why this matters: Politics is still brutal and divisive right now. Candidates continue to go to the extremes in search of attention and votes. But I think we have seen that there is an edge. Candidates can go too far. Between Greitens and Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who was sent packing after numerous outrages and poor choices, candidates who are too extreme actually can lose support and votes rather than rack up more and more support. There’s a tipping point out there - the problem is that it’s WAY out there.
Bottom line: There is reason to hope that our country does still have some sense of decency… you just have to dig pretty deep to find it right now.
Kansas abortion amendment changes electoral calculus
This week we saw the first hint of what could become another major factor in the left’s favor this November. Voters in Kansas resoundingly defeated an amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed the legislature to restrict or outlaw abortion. The pro-choice side won 59-41 in one of the reddest of red states after both sides spent millions of dollars educating voters about the issue. Turnout was more than double that of some recent primaries, with many voters unaffiliated with either party showing up to vote solely on the amendment.
Even pro-choice activists were surprised by the magnitude of both the electoral turnout and the win. As shown in the fascinating graphic by The Washington Post shown below, every single county voted to the left of the 2020 Presidential election. As the Post explains, “The (diagonal) line indicates an equivalent margin in the 2020 presidential contest and in the amendment vote.” This was no fluke or anomaly; voters knew what they were doing and were cold to the amendment.
Why this matters: Democrats hope that abortion rights are truly as popular as this vote made it seem. They plan to double down on the issue moving forward. Unfortunately for them, abortion will not actually be on very many ballots in November, with measures currently expected in Kentucky, Michigan, California and Vermont. None of these states have competitive Senate races this year that could help the Dems overcome the general headwinds they face.
The one thing you can count on is that Democrats will now do everything they can to convince voters everywhere that “abortion is on the ballot” when they vote for candidates. Get ready to hear that phrase a lot.
What remains to be seen is just how motivating such an effort is. Holding a separate, clear vote on an issue is a lot different than voting on candidates who hold all kinds of other opinions. No matter how strongly voters feel about abortion, they’ll also be taking into account the economy, inflation, taxes, and everything else they typically consider when deciding on a candidate.
Bottom line: It’s not easy to make an election a referendum about one issue if that issue is not literally on the ballot. The news out of Kansas gives the Dems hope, but it is likely not enough to transform a red wave into a blue one.
Reconciliation bill heads toward final passage
Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie, to pass the Democrats’ long-awaited budget reconciliation package. The House plans to come back into session to vote on it this Friday.
The bill has major provisions for climate, clean energy, taxes, health care, prescription drug prices and more. It allocates over $300 billion for climate change, extends Obamacare subsidies, increases conservation funding, and provides drought relief. The new costs are more than offset by new revenue, including a 15% minimum tax on large corporations, a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks, and increased funding for IRS enforcement.
Why this matters: The recent string of wins continues to roll for Biden. In just the past few weeks, he has notched wins on this bill, the CHIPS Act, a burn pit bill, a historic gun reform bill, the approval of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the killing of al-Qaida boss Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul. Combined with the recent pullback in energy prices and strong jobs reports, things are starting to look up for the party in power. These positive developments couldn’t have come at a better time for the Dems. If the news hadn’t turned around, they may have been headed for a clobbering like no modern party has seen.
Bottom line: The Democrats are still more likely than not to take losses in November, but they have finally taken steps to mitigate the damage.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Politics & Elections
Axelrod: Biden wins may reduce midterm headwinds facing Democrats to ‘Category 3’
Fetterman Plans His Return to Campaign Trail in Pennsylvania Senate Race
The Republican National Convention Will Be Held in Milwaukee in 2024
Foreign Policy
U.S. Drone Strike Kills al-Qaida Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul
The missiles that killed Qaeda boss Ayman al-Zawahiri were likely a secret variant that uses sharp blades, not explosives, to take out targets
From the one-China policy to the Taiwan Relations Act, here’s what to know
Policy & Legislation
Senate Passes Bill to Expand Benefits for Veterans Exposed to Burn Pits
Senate votes 95-1 to add Sweden, Finland to NATO
McConnell dismisses claim he was ‘played’ on reconciliation bill
Democrats add stock buyback tax, scrap carried interest to win Sinema over
Miscellaneous
Phones of top Pentagon officials were wiped of Jan. 6 messages
Lawyer Says He Intends to Give Alex Jones’s Texts to House Jan. 6 Panel
Third Person Dies after Being Struck by Lightning Outside White House
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
One change this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. The Republicans lost one member last week with the tragic death of Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-IN) in a car accident.
Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.3% Approve, 55.6% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%)
Change (in Net) from last week: No change
Recent trend: President Biden’s approval rate has not yet significantly improved, despite his recent victories. His approval level is now 4.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 19.6% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.4%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.6%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 7 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +0.1%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.8%
Recent trend: The GOP advantage that has held steady throughout 2022 is on the razor’s edge of evaporating. At this point, the parties are effectively tied. Due to the makeup of the Congressional map, Republicans have an inherent advantage of a few points, but the additional margin they held throughout the spring and first half of the summer is gone.
On the Calendar
President
Today, President Biden plans to travel to Kentucky to view damage from recent flooding, assuming he is sufficiently recovered from COVID.
House
Scheduled for recess this week and the next five weeks, but tentatively planning to briefly return this Friday to vote on the reconciliation package.
Senate
Scheduled for recess this week and the next three weeks, but subject to change if there are any hiccups in passing the reconciliation package.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 9 - four states with federal primaries:
Connecticut
Senate: Richard Blumenthal (D) is running for a third term. He has already been nominated by his party at its convention. Three Republicans are competing for the chance to face him in November, but their odds of prevailing are long. This seat will stay with the Dems in deep-blue Connecticut.
House: Connecticut has five House seats, unchanged from the 2010 Census. The incumbents, all Democrats, are all running for re-election and are all expected to win tomorrow. In November, keep an eye on the 2nd District covering the eastern half of the state, held by Rep. Joe Courtney (D), and the 5th District covering the northwestern portion, held by Rep. Jahana Hayes (D). Both districts are rated as D+2, making them potential battlegrounds in November should a red wave materialize.
Minnesota
Senate: No Senate race.
House: Minnesota retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) died in February, so the election in the 1st District will be a special election to serve out the remainder of his term. The district is nominally R+7, but it has been extremely close each of the past three elections. National attention will be on the 5th District, where controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) has drawn stiff competition and big opposition money in her race to keep her safe Democratic seat.
Vermont
Senate: Patrick Leahy (D) is retiring after eight terms. His likely successor is Rep. Peter Welch (D), who has served eight terms as Vermont’s only representative in the House. He is expected to win handily, both tomorrow and in November.
House: With Rep. Welch stepping down to run for Senate, the race to succeed him in Vermont’s single House seat is likely to be won by State Senate President pro tem Becca Balint (D). She is expected to cruise to victory in November.
Wisconsin
Senate: Ron Johnson (R) is running for a third term. He is expected to face a stiff challenge from Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D), after the other major Dem candidates dropped out and endorsed Barnes. Preliminary polling shows a very close race in November for this 50-50 state.
House: Wisconsin retains the same eight districts it had in the 2010 Census. Incumbents are seeking re-election in seven of the eight. Rep. Ron Kind (D) is retiring in the 3rd District, which leans R+4. This is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP, which has consolidated behind Derrick Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL and 2020 candidate for the seat.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
My mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support!
This week’s poll:
The results of last week’s poll: Should the federal government take dramatic action to counteract climate change? We had 148 votes cast. Thanks to everyone who participated!
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, August 1, 2022.
Today is 99 days until the November midterm elections (about 14 weeks).
We are 827 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).
Top Storylines
Biden finally scores some wins
Over the past two months, I’ve often apologized for feeling like I’m being overly critical of President Biden. Unfortunately for him, though, just about everything that could go wrong has been going wrong for quite some time. Last week was the first time in months that it felt like he was seeing a glimmer of hope.
As we’ll discuss in a second, the yearlong logjam finally broke and Congress passed a semiconductor and research bill to shore up domestic supplies and help the U.S. compete with China in this critical space. After weeks in the stratosphere, gas prices finally felt like they were coming back down to earth, although they’re still hovering near $4 nationwide.
The biggest news was Senator Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) shocking reversal on the climate, energy, tax increase, and prescription drug bill he had so publicly walked away from just weeks ago. The bill is being called the “most ambitious climate action undertaken by the U.S.” This legislation now looks poised to become law over the coming weeks.
Why this matters: Biden desperately needed these wins. However, he’s still a long way from being out of the woods. The economy is still not in great shape, and last week’s news that we have had two consecutive quarters of economic contraction (which led to a very public argument about whether or not we are technically in a recession - also more on this in a second) stepped on Biden’s good news week.
Bottom line: Having some wins going into November may mitigate the damage of the predicted red tsunami and help it only hit as a normal wave. It may not be perfect, but Biden and his team will gladly take it.
Congress passes semiconductor bill
On Thursday, the House passed the CHIPS Act with a broad, bipartisan vote of 243-187. It previously passed the Senate 64-33, and now awaits President Biden’s signature. The bill will provide over $280 billion in total funding, with $52.7 billion of the total directed toward domestic semiconductor production. About $200 billion is directed toward scientific research and the National Science Foundation. It also reauthorizes NASA and provides funding for Supreme Court security.
Republicans were fuming over the bill’s passage, not necessarily because of the substance, but because of what they felt was a deceitful move by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). As we discussed recently, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said over the July 4 weekend that Republicans would not help pass a semiconductor incentives bill if the Democrats were going to move forward with a reconciliation package. Reconciliation appeared dead as a doornail when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out a couple of weeks ago, which made Republicans comfortable moving the CHIPS Act forward. No sooner had it passed than Manchin and Schumer announced they had been secretly continuing negotiations on a reconciliation package and had reached an agreement.
Why this matters: Democrats are more than happy to pull one over on McConnell and give him what they feel is a taste of his own medicine. They also are happy to finally have Republicans be on the receiving end of a Manchin power move. I would say this double-cross would poison the well for legislation the rest of the year, but I think that ship already sailed long ago.
Bottom line: The Senate is now finished working across the aisle for 2022. Anything else major will have to wait until either a lame duck session or early 2023.
Are we in a recession?
The other big story from last week was the news that the U.S. experienced its second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction, which historically has been used as a shorthand definition of a recession. The White House, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of other surrogates took to the airwaves ahead of and immediately after the report to try and change the narrative, arguing that the technical definition of a “recession” includes many more factors than this rule of thumb. This became the predominant argument of the political class for at least three or four days last week.
Technically, the White House is correct: the National Bureau of Economic Research takes numerous other factors into account when deciding whether or not to label events “recessions.” However, this yet again looked to me like a messaging mistake for the Biden administration. Rather than making the discussion about the positive news of the week (see above), they turned the narrative into a grand example of the Streisand Effect: when attempts to minimize or distract attention from a piece of information have the unintended consequence of drawing further attention to the issue.
Why this matters: The multi-day argument over the definition of “recession” ultimately led far more people to talk about there being a recession than if the administration hadn’t made the definition such an issue. People are feeling the pinch of higher prices, and they don’t much care what word you use to label it. They just want to know that their elected leaders care about them and are working hard to fix the problem.
Bottom line: The Biden team continues to be tone-deaf in its efforts to address the economic needs and concerns of everyday Americans. They need to bring in some high-level leadership that can focus on how their words connect to ordinary people and stop focusing on eggheadery such as this.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Politics & Elections
How Can Democrats Persuade Voters They’re Not a Party of Rich Elites?
No, really — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president?
Revolving door creates questions and complications for Kamala Harris
Republicans Confront Unexpected Online Money Slowdown
Fox News snubbed Trump’s speech, in what’s becoming a pattern.
Policy & Legislation
White House says Biden will make decision on student loans
What is reconciliation, and what are Democrats going to get done with it?
Senate Democrats running out of time to move agenda
Bill restricting Big Cat ownership, made famous by ‘Tiger King’ and pushed by Carole Baskin, passes House
Permanent daylight saving time hits brick wall in House
Biden Is Facing Crisis After Crisis. But Are They Emergencies?
Democrats introduce bill to enact term limits for Supreme Court justices
Congress
Former congressman charged with insider trading
Pelosi’s husband sells off up to $5 million worth of chipmaker stock ahead of semiconductor bill vote
Angry callers are threatening Congress. These interns are on the front lines
New House security program to provide members $10K to safeguard their homes
Freedom Caucus demands rule changes for House and GOP conference
And a fun one:
Senator jokes about using Defense Production Act to save Choco Taco
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-211 advantage over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.7% Approve, 56.0% Disapprove (Net: -16.3%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 2.7%
Recent trend: President Biden bounced back this week, almost improving his net by 3 points. He’s still about 3 points lower than he was two months ago, though, and has a long way to go to get back to positive approval. His approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 18.4% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -54.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.3%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 8 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +0.9%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.6%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January, but it has shown some signs of narrowing in recent weeks.
On the Calendar
President
No travel announced.
House
Recess this week and the next six weeks.
Senate
In session this week, recess the next four weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, August 2 - five states with federal primaries:
Arizona
Senate: Big GOP race to see who goes up against Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in November. I covered this race a few weeks ago. It looks like this is coming down to the wire as a two-man race between Trump-backed venture capitalist and Peter Thiel acolyte Blake Masters and former solar energy exec Jim Lamon. Tons of cash has been spent in this race by both candidates as well as outside PACs. Masters initially separated himself from the crowd after Trump’s endorsement but has lost some ground after some stumbles and unearthing of past controversial statements. Lamon’s personal fortune has allowed him to continue pounding the airwaves to capitalize on Masters’ missteps. This one will come down to the wire.
House: Arizona has nine House seats, and incumbents are running for re-election in all but one, where Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is retiring in the 6th District. Her seat is a strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, as the new district leans R+3. Also watch the 2nd District, where Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran has been redistricted into an R+6 district. Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination to face him in November. Six-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert is also facing a strong primary challenge in the 1st District, after multiple ethical issues in recent years.
Kansas
Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Jerry Moran (R) is running for re-election and is expected to coast to victory against token opposition.
House: Kansas has four districts, but only two-term Rep. Sharice Davids faces a strong challenge this year in the R+1 2nd District, on the outskirts of Kansas City. Two Republicans are battling for the chance to face her in November.
Ballot Issue: The largest attention tomorrow will be on the ballot proposal to amend the State Constitutional regarding abortion. This will be the first major ballot test nationwide in the wake of the Dobbs decision and is being closely watched by many other states.
Michigan
Senate: No Senate race.
House: Michigan lost one seat in the 2020 Census and now has 13. The reshuffling of the map has created several interesting situations, with two incumbent Republicans facing one another for the new 4th District, two incumbent Democrats facing off in both the 11th and 12th Districts, and no incumbents running in the 10th or 13th Districts. Major national attention has also fallen on the GOP primary in the 3rd District, where incumbent Peter Meijer, one of only 10 Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump, is seeking re-election. National Democrats have spent significant money trying to promote Meijer’s opponent John Gibbs, a staunch Trump ally, drawing criticism from both the left and right for hypocrisy.
Missouri
Senate: Two-term incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring. The GOP primary race to succeed him is coming down to three main candidates. In alphabetical order, they are: Former Governor Eric Greitens, six-term Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler, and Attorney General Eric Schmitt*. Greitens has received a lot of national attention for his attempt to return to glory after resigning from his governorship in 2017 amid numerous scandals. After leading the pack for much of the race, he has begun to noticeably fade in the polls in recent weeks. Hartzler and Schmitt now appear to be duking it out for the victory. Depending on which poll you look at, they are either neck-and-neck, trading leads, or Schmitt has a slight-to-moderate advantage. All polls still have significant levels of undecideds, though, so this one could go either way.
House: The delegation has two open seats, to replace Rep. Hartzler and Rep. Billy Long (R), who also chose to run for Senate. Both races are hotly contested by a large number of viable candidates, and no one has emerged as a clear frontrunner in either. Whoever wins will coast to victory in November, as both districts are heavily Republican. The other interesting primary is in St. Louis, where “squad” member Cori Bush (D) faces sitting state senator Steve Roberts (D). While most seem to favor Bush in the race, don’t be surprised if Roberts gives her a run for her money in this heavily-Dem district. Incumbents are expected to cruise to victory in the other five districts.
Tennessee (Thursday, 8/4)
Senate: Five-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition.
House: With longtime Dem Rep. Jim Cooper retiring rather than run in his now-R+9 5th District, nine Republicans are facing off to compete for the seat. Incumbents are running in the other eight seats, five of whom are unopposed.
Washington
Senate: Five-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is running for re-election and does not face significant opposition.
House: Incumbents are running in all 10 of Washington’s House seats. GOP Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse both voted to impeach former President Trump and have drawn his ire. He has endorsed opponents for both, but it is not clear who will prevail in either battle.
*In full disclosure, I was employed for five years by Congresswoman Hartzler.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Our mission is to bring unbiased political information and analysis to Americans in a way that is interesting and engaging. Thank you for your support!
The results of last week’s poll: Should Donald Trump run for President in 2024? We had 191 votes cast, and all ballots were counted (I swear).
Thanks to everyone who participated! I really like this new feature… nice job, Substack. Let’s try it again:
I’ll share the results next week.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 25, 2022.
Today is 106 days until the November midterm elections (about 15 weeks).
We are 834 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 27 months).
Top Storylines
Worldwide heat wave fuels push for government action on climate
The main story for the past week was the abnormally high temperatures throughout the U.S. and Europe. While these are usually localized phenomena, what made this time different was just how widespread it was. The U.S. was broiling, with widespread areas hitting 100-plus several days in a row. London hit an all-time record high of 104.5 degrees, Belgium and Germany were scorching, and Greenland was seeing short-sleeve weather, melting over six billion tons a day of ice.
Back in Washington, the Biden administration used this backdrop as an opportunity to talk about his efforts to ratchet up a climate change response. President Joe Biden (D) has taken flak from his left wing for not doing more to act on climate policy. After Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) backed out of climate talks a week and a half ago, climate activists have increased their calls for executive action by the president.
Biden gave a speech in Massachusetts on Wednesday focused on climate policy. While he did not take formal steps to declare climate change a “national emergency,” he used the word “emergency” several times in his speech and called it a “clear and present danger” and vowed to act if Congress does not. The White House said he would not declare a “climate emergency” last week, but that discussions along those lines were ongoing.
Some conservative commentators have warned that declaring a state of emergency would allow Biden to legally suspend the Constitution and effectively become a dictator on anything he deemed climate-related. This is not true. An emergency declaration does allow expanded executive powers, but they are still limited and bound by the Constitution.
This helpful article from The Hill lays out the powers and limits of such a declaration. The main thrust is this:
The declaration would empower Biden to use the Defense Production Act, which could provide loans that could bolster clean energy deployment, and the International Economic Emergency Protection Act, which (Mark Nevitt, a professor at the Emory University’s School of Law) said could prohibit the imports of “harmful climate products” such as chemical compounds that warm the planet and illegally harvested timber from the Amazon.
Nevitt also said that Biden could deploy military construction powers to build renewable energy projects near military bases or other energy security projects.
A declaration would provide a few other opportunities for action, but none so drastic as suspending the Constitution.
Why this matters: No matter how creative Biden gets, his powers are nowhere near as broad as legislative power to make new law. This is especially true considering the Supreme Court’s recent decision in West Virginia vs. EPA, which said that under the “Major Questions Doctrine,” the executive branch does not have the power to read between the lines to enact major new policies that are supposed to be decided by Congress.
Bottom line: Declaring emergencies to get around Congress is not a good precedent or plan, no matter the administration. Given the constraints of executive authority, ultimately if major governmental action is going to happen, Congress is going to have to decide to act.
Odds of Electoral Count Act revamp getting stronger
Few Americans probably realize that the events of January 6, 2021, were driven by the ambiguities of a law passed in 1887, the Electoral Count Act, or ECA. This mess of a statute is 809 words arranged in one paragraph and 10 confusing sentences. The longest sentence is 275 words. This poor 19th-century drafting makes the ECA chock-full of ambiguities and contradictions. Read it for yourself - it’s unintelligible.
The lack of clarity in the statute is what provided the legal cover for President Trump’s efforts to reverse the results of the 2020 election during the January 6 vote-counting session in Congress. Since then, many legal experts and members of the House and Senate have expressed the need to reform the ECA and remove its ambiguities and contradictions.
Last week, a group of 16 Senators introduced the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022. The group includes nine Republicans - one short of what it would take to pass the Senate, assuming all Democrats stay on board. Among other things, the bill would clarify that the Vice President plays only a “ministerial” role in counting the votes and does not have unilateral authority to accept or reject votes. It also raises the bar to object to a state’s slate of electors from the current level of one member of each chamber to one-fifth of both chambers. After the bill was introduced, other Senators expressed openness to the idea, including some additional Republicans.
Why this matters: Reducing confusion and ambiguity is usually a good thing in the law, and this Is one of the most confusing and ambiguous statutes on the books. The fact that it covers one of the most important parts of our system of government makes it all that much more important to clarify well in advance of the next election.
Bottom line: I believe this will get done in the next few months. It may not make as many headlines as some flashier subjects, but it might be one of the most important pieces of legislation that Congress could pass for the future of our system of government.
Health issues plaguing politicians of all ages
President Biden’s COVID diagnosis made all kinds of headlines this week. Fortunately, it seems like his symptoms are mild and improving. He has even made a public appearance, which is pretty strong evidence that he’s truly doing okay.
We’ve talked a lot about how it seems like the Democrats can’t catch a break lately - this is even true in their own physical health. A few examples:
Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor, and Dem nominee for U.S. Senate, John Fetterman, 52, suffered a stroke just days before the Senate primary.
Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), 50, also suffered a serious stroke in January, endangering the Democratic majority in the Senate.
Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), 63, also suffered a minor stroke in May, putting him out of commission for some time.
Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), 82, the longest-serving Senator, fractured his hip and has had two surgeries to repair it in recent weeks. He was briefly hospitalized in January 2021 with muscle spasms. As the longest-serving member of the majority party, he serves as president pro tempore of the Senate, which puts him third in line to the Presidency.
It’s not only Democrats who have had their share of troubles. Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND), 61, had a yard work accident in June that resulted in potential finger amputation. I’m sure there are plenty of other examples of accident and illness.
Why this matters: Sometimes we forget that these are human beings who occasionally have ordinary health problems. Members of Congress are under immense physical and mental stress. At any moment, things can change at the drop of a hat.
Bottom line: Keep our elected officials in your thoughts and prayers. It’s best for our country if we resolve our political disagreements at the ballot box rather than the hospital.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Politics
Dems second-guessing their strategic decisions
Cracks form in Biden’s Senate Democratic base
The 1976 and 1980 primaries are not precedents Biden will want to emulate
The history of primary meddling — and how risky Dems’ attempts in 2022 are
So will Democrats try to boost Trump in the 2024 primaries, too?
Abortion
House Passes Bill to Codify Contraception Rights After Dobbs
A triumphant antiabortion movement begins to deal with its divisions
Where Abortion Is on the Ballot
Congress
House passes bill protecting marriage equality, with 47 GOP members voting ‘yes’
Ocasio-Cortez pushes back on claims she ‘faked’ being handcuffed during arrest
Biden: Military thinks potential Pelosi trip to Taiwan is ‘not a good idea’
Eight U.S. House Offices File for the Right to Unionize
Congress needs to take disaster planning seriously, Modernization panel says
January 6 Committee
Watchdog Informs Secret Service of Criminal Inquiry Into Missing Texts
Bannon guilty on two criminal contempt of Congress charges
And a fun one:
Triumph the Insult Comic Dog will not be prosecuted for trespassing in Capitol
Balance of Power
House of Represeives
changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-211 advantage over the GOP. Four seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 9-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote. If a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails. If Republicans pick up five or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 37.9% Approve, 56.9% Disapprove (Net: -19.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 1.8%
Recent trend: The president’s dropping approval ratings continued this week, with his net +/- going down about 5 points in the past two months. His approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 18.7% Approve, 72.4% Disapprove (Net: -53.7%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 1.0%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 10 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.5%
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.5%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
No travel planned.
House
In session this week, recess the next six weeks.
Senate
In session this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, July 28 - no primaries.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
On Thursday I asked a simple question: Should Donald Trump run again? I got some very thoughtful responses - thanks to everyone who read and commented!
Let’s make it even easier - please cast your anonymous vote here:
I’ll share the results next week.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 18, 2022.
Today is 113 days until the November midterm elections (about 16 weeks).
We are 841 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months).
Top Storylines
Biden’s Middle East trip draws lukewarm reception back home
On Saturday, Joe Biden returned from his first major trip to the Middle East as president, bringing home a mixed bag of headlines. After a stop in Israel that went mostly according to plan, he flew to Saudi Arabia, where his actions received much more criticism. The lingering image of the entire trip will be Biden fist-bumping Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman upon arrival in the kingdom.
While campaigning for President, Biden had promised to make bin Salman, commonly referred to by his initials MBS, a “pariah” (or outcast) on the world stage. This was in response to U.S. intelligence determining MBS had personally approved the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist who lived in the U.S. and wrote for The Washington Post. By most reports, Biden only reluctantly agreed to meet with MBS after months of pushing from his advisers, who believed it was necessary to push for expanded pumping of oil.
Before the trip, the White House did its best to avoid the inevitable bad optics of the Biden-MBS meeting, saying Biden would “try to minimize contact” with others while on the trip due to new COVID variants. The press and public saw straight through the effort, though - especially when Biden landed in Israel and promptly started shaking hands with old friends like former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
After their closed-door meeting, Biden claimed to have pushed MBS on the Khashoggi assassination, a point that was disputed by Saudis in the room. Biden has taken criticism from Americans over his handling of the situation, including the Washington Post’s publisher calling his actions “shameful.” Biden also did not leave the meeting with any firm promises for more oil, instead only getting vague assurances for future action.
Why this matters: Biden fist-bumping MBS was a mistake. It looked like a couple of intimate buddies exchanging a knowing nod rather than the cold business relationship a simple handshake could have projected. Beyond that, the real problem is the bigger picture: Biden’s stock is so low and his domestic situation so dire that he felt he had no option but to beg for help from a pariah state. If he were in a strong position, he never would have felt the need to make this trip and elevate MBS’s position on the world stage.
Bottom line: Right now Biden’s situation is so weak that he has nothing left but bad options. Even still, he isn’t helping himself with unforced errors like the optics of his ill-advised fist-bump and the lack of concrete results from the meeting.
Manchin deals blow to Dems’ final attempt at big legislation
Feel like you’ve heard this one before? On Thursday Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) that he would not support the biggest parts of the Democrats’ reconciliation package, all but killing efforts to pass major legislation before the midterms. Dems had hoped to include major climate, energy, and tax provisions in the bill, but Manchin said he would only support a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies and a provision to lower prescription drug prices. Manchin said he would not support any items that would add to inflation, telling Schumer he needed to wait to see next month’s numbers before he could support provisions that might add fuel to the inflationary fire.
President Biden responded by saying he would use “strong executive action” to enact climate provisions. He did not give details of exactly what this would include.
Why this matters: Democratic hopes of a big legislative win before November are now dead. They needed every single Democratic Senator on board to pass a reconciliation bill, and they simply do not have the votes now. Biden’s “executive action” statement is hollow - if he could have implemented major climate or tax policy without Congress, he already would have done so.
Bottom line: If Congressional Democrats are going to save their skin for the November midterms, they’ll have to look somewhere other than legislation. Nothing major is going to pass.
Inflation roars back into the headlines
Related to our last item, inflation is a problem that won’t go away. After improving a tiny bit last month and bringing out hopes that the worst was behind us, last week’s inflation report put the annual rate at 9.1 percent, setting another 40-year high. The number was worse than experts had predicted.
This chart I made from the Federal Reserve Economic Data engine (aka FRED) shows the Consumer Price Index over the past 5 years and puts in stark relief the difference between current trends and the status quo. So-called “core inflation" - excluding volatile energy and food prices - has been slightly decreasing since March.
Analysts now expect a strong response from the Federal Reserve at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps raising interest rates a full percent.
Why this matters: Just over 100 days out from the midterm elections, the economic picture continues to be grim. If the Fed increases interest rates a full point next week, millions of Americans with adjustable rate mortgages will be getting a bill for hundreds of dollars more per month right before an election. The only silver lining is that next month’s numbers should improve once the recent pullback in gas prices is factored in. Even still, gas is still stratospheric compared to a year ago. Summer electricity bills are significantly higher this year, as are food prices and darn near everything else.
Bottom line: Electorally, this report was a worst-case scenario for Congressional Democrats. Time is running out to turn around the narrative. Instead of even marginally improving, the news only seems to be getting worse.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Elections
Donald Trump looks to fall launch for 2024, potentially upending midterms
Biden says he wouldn’t be disappointed to run against Trump again
Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds
Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows
Congress
Senate Absences Snarl Democrats’ Plans for a Quick Return to Business
Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders
Take it from top Hill staffers: Congress doesn’t function as it should
Foreign Relations
China set to reveal ‘very bad’ economic picture after covid lockdowns
Fertilizer crisis delivers profits and pain as Ukraine fallout broadens
So what coups might John Bolton have been involved in, exactly?
January 6 Committee
Bipartisan bill would clarify that VP role with electors is only ceremonial
The significance of the new Steve Bannon tape
Jan. 6 and the Search for Direct Trump Links
And a fun one:
Snooki hits Oz over Pennsylvania residency in new video for Fetterman: ‘Jersey will not forget you’
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 38.5% Approve, 55.7% Disapprove (Net: -17.2%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Improved 0.8%
Recent trend: The president gained a little ground this week, but his approval level is now 3.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 19.0% Approve, 71.7% Disapprove (Net: -52.7%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Worsened 0.9%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has worsened by about 10 points.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.0%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.5%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden returned from his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia on Saturday. He has not announced any travel yet for this week.
House
In session the next two weeks.
Senate
In session the next three weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, July 21 - One primary.
Maryland
Senate: Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) is running for re-election and is not expected to face any significant challenge.
House: Maryland did not gain or lose any seats in the new Census, retaining eight representatives. However, its new map is more competitive than the old one. Previously there were seven solid Dem districts and one solid GOP, but two of the solid Dem districts are now rated as competitive but Dem-leaning and one is now a toss-up. A couple of interesting races to keep an eye on:
4th District - Incumbent Anthony Brown (D) is not running for re-election, as he chose to run for Attorney General. In this heavily-Democratic seat, nine Dems are running to replace Brown. The district surrounds the southeastern and most of the northeastern border with the District of Columbia.
6th District - The new 6th District comprises the entire western panhandle of the state and is rated as a tossup. Sophomore incumbent David Trone (D) faces three Democrat and six Republican challengers. Regardless of who emerges victorious Tuesday, this district will be one of the few strong GOP takeover opportunities on the east coast and will therefore be heavily watched.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Three quick things before we get started:
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I’m working on a deep dive of the Georgia U.S. Senate race (Herschel Walker vs. Raphael Warnock). These things take a while, so it’s hard to say exactly when it’ll be ready! But keep an eye on your inbox… this is a huge race, so you’ll want to stay on top of it.
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The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 11, 2022.
Today is 120 days until the November midterm elections (about 17 weeks).
We are 848 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
Congress battles over final legislative push before elections
With just weeks before the August recess, Congressional Democrats are scrambling to cobble together and pass two major pieces of legislation: a 2,000-plus-page bipartisan domestic semiconductor manufacturing incentive bill known as USICA and a trimmed-down version of last year’s partisan budget reconciliation package. They are hoping to include many provisions in the reconciliation bill, like clean energy incentives, tax increases on high earners, a plan to lower prescription drug prices, an extension of increased Obamacare benefits, and more.
After Dems had appeared to make some progress on the reconciliation bill, Republican Leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) took to Twitter to douse their hopes with ice water:
Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is continuing to look for ways to pressure McConnell into allowing both USICA and reconciliation to proceed.
In even-numbered years (years with Congressional elections), almost no major legislation ever passes after the spring. Occasionally something significant gets across the finish line during June and July. Absent a crisis, absolutely nothing important passes between August and November. Part of that is because lawmakers are on recess (see last week’s newsletter about that here - What does Congress DO on “recess”?), and part is because they don’t want to risk doing anything that might hurt their chances of re-election. Either way, serious legislation this late in the year is a huge uphill battle.
Why this matters: Congressional Democrats remain fearful of a coming red wave in November. After their string of bad political news the past few months, they are searching desperately for a win. If this effort falls through, they can stop looking at Capitol Hill as their search for a lifeboat continues.
Bottom line: Mitch McConnell is not going to be the one tossing a life preserver to the Democrats less than four months before a major election in which he stands a strong chance of earning a major victory. I’m extremely skeptical that anything politically advantageous for the Dems emerges from the Senate at this late hour.
Could trouble across the pond be a preview of things to come here?
After not quite three years in power, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last week that he will resign once a successor is determined. He had been on thin ice over several issues, most notably the charges of hypocrisy stemming from the flouting of his own government’s COVID policies by holding maskless parties at 10 Downing Street at the height of the pandemic. The final straw, though, was the revelation that he had backed the promotion of MP Chris Pincher to Deputy Chief Whip despite having personal knowledge of prior sexual harassment misconduct.
This fascinating image from Chartr shows just how dramatic and total the collapse of Johnson’s government truly was. Although the pace of resignations had already been running high for his entire tenure, the past week was disastrous.
Why this matters: Many observers believe the U.K. is a leading indicator of the political winds that eventually blow to the U.S., with issues like Brexit (which Johnson championed) viewed as precursors to America’s recent populist turn. The Brits have had their fill of Johnson’s unorthodox personality and brash approach. Is this a harbinger of things to come in America?
Bottom line: In recent months, some signs in the U.S. have also hinted that populism may be on the wane. Trump’s power over GOP primaries is not what it used to be, and the January 6 hearings have been a sobering moment for some. November is not far off, so we will soon see if the BoJo debacle was really predictive of coming waves on this side of the Atlantic.
2024 Presidential Election already heating up
Speaking of elections… Yes, it’s still 28 months away, but many politicos are already looking past the November midterms and eyeing the 2024 Presidential campaign. We’ve previously covered rumors that former President Donald Trump is considering announcing his candidacy soon. Over the 4th of July, the rumor mill kicked into overdrive when California Governor Gavin Newsom paid for TV ads across Florida needling Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, widely considered the other top GOP contender for the nomination.
Last year’s unsuccessful recall attempt against Newsom, which he defeated by a nearly 24% margin, appears to have actually strengthened him by drawing national attention and raising his profile within the party. He wants to position himself as an unapologetic progressive who isn’t afraid to pick fights with the leading names in the GOP.
Why this matters: Newsom and DeSantis are both in interesting yet similar positions. Each is seen as a younger up-and-comer in their parties, but both have to tread carefully to not step on their parties’ current standard-bearers. Crossing President Biden or former President Trump could potentially kill either Newsom or DeSantis’s ambitions before they ever get off the ground. But the degree to which both have begun openly showing their ambition for the Presidency indicates they are ready to test those waters.
Bottom line: It looks like both parties are on the verge of an all-out war between the old guard and the new. If Newsom and DeSantis both decide to charge forward and challenge the party hierarchy, we could be in for a (hopefully metaphorically) brutal battle.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Elections
Biden and the Increasingly Anxious Democrats
Biden Promised to Stay Above the Fray, but Democrats Want a Fighter
One of the Few Potential Bright Spots for Democrats in 2022: The Senate
Can Lisa Murkowski Fend Off Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska?
The Strident Writings of a Young Blake Masters Dog His Senate Run in Arizona
Nebraska quirk used new map to fill House vacancy last month
Energy
E.P.A. Describes How It Will Regulate Power Plants After Supreme Court Setback
Nuclear Power Gets New Push in U.S., Winning Converts
Germany struggles with 1.6 million tons of underwater WWII weapons and explosives in efforts to develop offshore energy production
Miscellaneous
Biden issues executive order responding to abortion ruling
Under Pressure, Biden Issues Executive Order on Abortion
And two fun ones for the Anglophiles out there:
UK embassy shares Fourth of July playlist in cheeky nod to former colonial relationship with US
Larry the Cat, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office of the United Kingdom, outlasts his third Prime Minister
Source: Chicago Tribune
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 38.4% Approve, 56.4% Disapprove (Net: -18.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.3%
Recent trend: President Biden’s net disapproval has basically doubled in the past two months, and is now nearing -20%. Biden’s approval level is now 3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 19.2% Approve, 71.0% Disapprove (Net: -51.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.8%
Recent trend: Over the past two months, Congress’s net approval gap has grown by about 10 points as citizens grow more displeased with the direction of the country.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.5%
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.5%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden will travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16.
House
In session the next three weeks.
Senate
In session the next four weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 14 - No primaries. There will be one primary next week in Maryland.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Happy 246th Birthday to our great nation! I hope you’re enjoying it with family and friends. To celebrate, comment below with the name of your favorite song about America! Mine is America by Simon & Garfunkel.
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A ton has happened in the past few days - I’ll try to break down some of the biggest stories for you on this great holiday.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, July 4, 2022.
Today is 127 days until the November midterm elections (about 18 weeks).
We are 855 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 28 months).
Top Storylines
Dobbs fallout continues to roil Washington
In the week since the Dobbs ruling was handed down, Democrats have struggled to unite around a common response. Last Saturday, President Biden’s spokesperson said he still does not agree with court-packing to respond to Dobbs. Mid-week, pro-abortion-rights activists were describing the party’s response as “painfully inadequate” and criticized Democratic politicians’ prioritization of fundraising over action. By Thursday, Biden proposed an “exception” to the filibuster to pass abortion protections… which was immediately brushed aside as a non-starter by Senators Sinema (D-AZ) and Manchin (D-WV).
On the other side of the aisle, cracks are beginning to show in the Republican coalition between those who wish to pursue a nationwide ban on abortion and those that truly want to allow each state to make its own laws on the issue. Additional splits are forming around proposals to provide assistance to mothers and families.
Why this matters: Anyone who thought Dobbs ended the abortion debate in this country is kidding themselves. Democrats are at a complete loss for how to respond - they are taking a “fingers crossed” approach and hoping the issue somehow rescues them from a midterm slaughter. However, they at least now have something to rally the troops around. Republicans, meanwhile, may have won the battle, but with this issue now off the table, the army may break apart in the aftermath. Abortion policy tied together a lot of different pieces of a coalition that now may struggle to find common cause.
Bottom line: Abortion policy is far, far from being in the rear-view mirror. Stay tuned and keep an eye on the messaging from different factions within each party - everyone is dipping toes in the water and trying to feel out a new direction for the future of the issue.
January 6 Committee finally breaks through with surprise witness
Until last week, the January 6 Committee had struggled to garner attention for its hearings, even with the effort at a prime-time premiere. But last Tuesday, the testimony of Cassidy Hutchinson, former principal assistant to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, finally broke through the noise. Her testimony described actions by President Trump that have been widely described by news reports as “bombshell” allegations, including that Trump yelled at aides and Secret Service to allow armed protestors in to his speech on January 6, then tried to grab his vehicle’s steering wheel and force the Secret Service to take him to the Capitol. Some of Hutchinson’s testimony has since called into question, but not before it made real news. The Committee also suggested upcoming testimony will show that Trump or his associates attempted to intimidate potential witnesses.
Why this matters: So long as the allegations of witnesses are more or less the same things that have been in the news for 18 months, this committee’s hearings were not going to get much attention. Trump supporters have not just been waiting for a clearer presentation of known facts before changing their minds about him. The only thing the committee could do to actually change the conversation is present some actual new information, and that’s what Hutchinson’s testimony did. Rumor has it (see below in What I’m Watching #6) that the shifting narrative has President Trump considering announcing a re-election bid to head off more worsening of the narrative.
Bottom line: Trump can’t afford to see his support shaved off by this committee. Announcing early would completely flip the narrative and make it all about his re-election bid - and that’s something Donald J. Trump likes to hear.
Ketanji Brown Jackson sworn in as newest Supreme Court Justice
The Supreme Court wrapped up its term on Thursday, marking the end of Justice Stephen Breyer’s 28-year tenure at the age of 83. The same day, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, a 51-year-old former Breyer clerk and judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, was sworn in to take his seat. Justice Jackson (yes, this is how the Court will refer to her) grew up in Miami, then went to Harvard undergrad and Harvard Law School. She performed improv comedy while an undergrad and was a staff writer for Time Magazine for two years. Early in her career, Justice Jackson served as a federal public defender. Check out her full resume and background, as given to the Senate Judiciary Committee, here.
Justice Jackson is widely recognized as a top legal mind and was confirmed 53-47 in April. She is the 116th Supreme Court Justice and sixth woman on the Court.
Why this matters: At only 51 years old, we will likely be talking about our high court’s newest jurist for another 30 to 40 years. It’s important to understand who she is and where she comes from. Ideologically, she is not expected to provide a major change from Justice Breyer, but as we have seen many times, justices have minds of their own and can shift over time.
Credit: Wikipedia
Justice Jackson becomes the first Black female Supreme Court Justice, fulfilling President Biden’s promise to nominate a Black woman to fill the opening.
Bottom line: It will take a year or two to get a feel for Justice Jackson’s judicial temperament and ideology. However, she will be tested soon, with the Court agreeing to take up major cases this fall on affirmative action, voting laws, freedom of expression/gay rights, and more.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Supreme Court
Supreme Court handcuffs Biden on major climate rule
“Major Questions Doctrine” explodes onto the scene at SCOTUS, with possibly broad repercussions
A 30,000-Foot View of the Abortion Ruling’s Political Fallout
A Transformative Term at the Most Conservative Supreme Court in Nearly a Century
Credit: New York Times
Elections
In Illinois, MAGA Congresswoman Rallies to Oust Her G.O.P. Colleague
GA Senate Race: Warnock Opens Up 10-Point Lead Over Walker
Harvard Poll: Over 70 Percent of Americans Don’t Want Biden to Run Again, Over 60 Percent Don’t Want Trump to Run Again
But… Biden Irked by Democrats Who Won’t Take ‘Yes’ for an Answer on 2024,
and Trump Eyes Early 2024 Announcement as Jan. 6 Scrutiny Intensifies
Congress
Leahy's surgery could complicate Democratic agenda
The 20-Somethings Who Help the 70-Somethings Run Washington
Immigration
U.S. charges driver and 3 others in deaths of 53 migrants found in tractor-trailer
And a fun one:
Harry Wilson calls Lee Zeldin and aide ‘scumbags’ in a text mistakenly sent… to Zeldin. Ouch.
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up six or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.2% Approve, 55.9% Disapprove (Net: -16.7%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Up 0.1%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop 3.8 points. There is a clear negative trend in his approval rating over the past several weeks. Biden’s approval level is now 3.5 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 20.2% Approve, 70.2% Disapprove (Net: -50.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 2.0%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable most of 2022, but the past month and a half has shown net approval getting steadily worse.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.0%
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.4%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden will travel to Cleveland on Wednesday to speak about his economic agenda.
Biden’s next major foreign travel will be next Wednesday through Saturday, July 13-16, when he will travel to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
House
Recess this week; in session the next three weeks
Senate
Recess this week; in session the next four weeks
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
No primaries this week or next week. The next primary date is Tuesday, July 19, with Maryland.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Editor’s note: tomorrow morning I’ll release my analysis of the Florida Senate race. Does your mom live in Florida? Your brother, friend, or cousin? Forward them this email and tell them to subscribe so they don’t miss it! -Eric
No one will be surprised that this week’s #1 story is the Supreme Court. Two enormous rulings at the end of the week expanded the interpretation of the 2nd Amendment and overturned Roe v. Wade. It’s hard to get bigger than that, so that’s where we’ll start. But first…
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 27, 2022.
Today is 134 days until the November midterm elections (about 19 weeks).
We are 862 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
SCOTUS overturns Roe
On Friday, the Supreme Court announced its opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. This is one of the most important decisions in the history of the Court and a massive earthquake decades in the making. Aftershocks will reverberate for many years into the future.
Why this matters: The immediate practical impact is not that abortion is illegal nationwide, but rather that each state now has the ability to decide for itself whether or not abortion is legal within its boundaries. The political impact this November is the focus of intense speculation, but it is far too early to tell if it will actually change any outcomes at the ballot box. Some believe it will motivate Democratic constituencies to flood the polls and reverse the building red wave; others believe it will demoralize Democratic voters into staying home and sitting the election out.
Bottom line: Mark this week down in your journal. Years from now we will still be talking about Dobbs and its impact. We will not know for months or years just what the final effects of the decision are, so for now, just pay attention to the moment and remember. You’ll be thinking back to these times for decades.
SCOTUS expands 2nd Amendment interpretation as Congress tightens gun laws
On Thursday, the Court issued an opinion that, in any other year, would have been the blockbuster of the term. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the Court held that Americans have an individual Constitutional right to bear arms, and that the right does not require government permission to exercise. Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for the majority, said, “We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officials some special need.“
On Friday, Congress passed the bipartisan compromise on gun legislation. President Biden signed the bill into law on Saturday, completing an incredible path from the drawing board to enacted law in the course of less than two weeks. The bill expands background checks for 18-to-21-year-old buyers, funds mental health and drug courts, encourages red flag laws through money to states, tightens gun trafficking and straw purchasing laws, and tightens what has been called the “boyfriend loophole.”
Why this matters: The Braun decision’s immediate impact is not enormous. Only six states had a licensing regime similar to that of New York. The long-term impact is that the Court, for the first time, decided that the 2nd Amendment protects an individual’s right to bear arms in public. The case’s holding will be the new basis for courts’ analysis of gun laws’ constitutionality moving forward. As for Congress’s action, the actual legal changes were fairly mild compared to what Democrats had sought. It is nonetheless being touted as the biggest gun legislation in nearly 30 years. Politically, I think this bill’s passage is likely to take any further gun control off the table for a decade or more.
Bottom line: Bruen is another major blow to Democrats, as it further solidifies the right’s perspective on the 2nd Amendment as the law of the land. And with Congress’s action Friday, gun laws are unlikely to get stricter for a long time. I doubt Democrats are going to be satisfied with that.
Biden proposes suspending fuel tax
On Wednesday, President Biden proposed a three-month suspension of federal gas and diesel taxes. As I mentioned that day, the 18.4-cent gasoline tax only accounts for 3.7% of the current price of gas. His proposal was met with lukewarm reception from both sides of the aisle, even from Speaker Pelosi.
Why this matters: Suspending the gas tax is widely viewed as a gimmick that would not help consumers very much and may cause more long-term problems than it solves. Senator Manchin said he would not vote for the proposal, making it dead on arrival in the Senate. Frankly, it looks like Biden’s team did not vet this proposal through his necessary Congressional allies at all before springing it on them.
Bottom line: If this is Biden’s best effort to help consumer pain at the pump, he’s pretty much out of ideas. It will not happen and will not even earn him much PR credit.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
All 213 pages of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion (ok, I didn’t actually read the whole thing, but it’s pretty monumental.)
‘It’s Become Real’: Abortion Decision Roils Midterms, Sending Fight to States
Here’s what is in the Senate’s gun bill — and what was left out.
Biden to call for three-month suspension of federal gas taxes
Gas prices aren't leading to less driving — yet
Source: Axios
Here’s where Trump’s endorsement record stands so far
Can Democrats “Break Away” From an Unpopular President?
Conservative faction’s earmark requests illustrate GOP divide
GOP senator suffers ‘serious’ hand injury, may require amputation
Can Congress be a little more like a tech company? Maybe.
Note: I highly recommend the apps the story mentions, Dome Watch and Dome Directory, both available on major app stores.
And a fun(?) one:
Meet the Peecyclers. Their Idea to Help Farmers is No. 1.
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
Republicans picked up another seat this week when Mayra Flores (R-TX) was sworn in to succeed Filemon Vela (D-TX). As of today, Democrats hold a 220-210 advantage over the GOP. Five seats are vacant. This gives the Dems a 10-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than four members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails).
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.3% Approve, 56.1% Disapprove (Net: -16.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 3.4%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop 3 points. There is now a distinct, discernable negative trend in his approval rating over the past several weeks. Biden’s approval level is now 3.3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.0% Approve, 69.0% Disapprove (Net: -48.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.2%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +3.4
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.1%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is attending the G7 summit in Germany and the NATO summit in Spain through Thursday.
House
Recess this week and next week.
Senate
Recess this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 28… there are a ton this week, but then we barely have anything until August. Bear with me.
Primaries:
Colorado
Senate: Senator Michael Bennet (D) is running for a third full term. He will face the winner of the Republican primary, which is between State Rep. Ron Hanks and businessman Joe O’Dea. The race is on most lists of competitive general election contests, and Bennet did not crack 50% of the vote in either of his prior elections. This is definitely one to watch this fall if the rumored “red tsunami” materializes.
House: Colorado added a seat in the Census, going up from 7 seats to 8. The new seat, the 8th, also happens to be almost a pure toss-up district, at R+1. The 7th district has been represented by Ed Perlmutter (D) for eight terms, but he is retiring. At just D+3, it will be a prime target for national Republicans as well.
Illinois
Senate: Senator Tammy Duckworth (D) is seeking a second term and should win handily.
House: Opposite of Colorado, Illinois lost a seat in the Census, going from 18 to 17. Despite this, the new map is one of the most heavily gerrymandered in the nation, putting Democrats in a position to potentially pick up a representative.
New York
Senate: Senator Charles Schumer (D) is seeking a fifth term and should win handily.
House: New York also lost a seat, going from 27 to 26. Several races look to be competitive in November, with four toss-up districts and seven leaning districts (4 D, 3 R). The biggest storyline here is the incumbent-on-incumbent primary in New York City between two longtime Reps, Jerrold Nadler (D)and Carolyn Maloney (D). Out of the House’s 435 members, Nadler is the 13th most senior and Maloney is 20th. Nadler chairs the Judiciary Committee and Maloney chairs Oversight and Government Reform. The House primaries are delayed until August 23 due to delayed redistricting, but keep an eye on this race. No matter who wins, it will be a major story.
Oklahoma
Senate:
A big GOP primary is on in the special election to fill out the remaining term of retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe (R), which I covered extensively in a recent deep dive. If no one wins 50%, it goes to a runoff in late August. Expect Rep. Markwayne Mullin to lead, but whether or not he’ll break 50% is still up in the air.
Sen. James Lankford (R) is also up for re-election to a full term, but should have no trouble in his primary.
House: Four of Oklahoma’s five House members are running for re-election and are likely to win easily. The only one who is not running is Mullin, as he chose to run for Senate. His second-district seat has 14 Republican candidates competing to succeed him. The district is ruby red, so whichever candidate prevails in the primary will be a shoo-in for the general election.
Utah
Senate: Senator Mike Lee (R) is seeking a third term and should win handily.
House: All four of Utah’s representatives are Republicans, and all four appear to be in good shape to return for another two years in the House.
Runoffs:
Mississippi
Senate: No Senate race.
House: Two Mississippi districts have interesting runoffs tomorrow. In the 3rd district, Navy veteran Michael Cassidy effectively tied incumbent Rep. Michael Guest, with Guest earning 268 more votes than Cassidy out of 50,000 cast. However, neither cracked 50%, so they will duke it out tomorrow for the Republican nomination in this solidly Republican seat. In the 4th district, scandal-plagued Rep. Steven Palazzo faces Sheriff Mike Ezell. Despite serving the district for six terms, Palazzo only garnered 31.5% of the primary vote, followed closely by Ezell’s 25.0%. Palazzo is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for accusations that he improperly used campaign funds to pay himself and his ex-wife nearly $200,000. He looks to be in serious trouble in his bid for a 7th term.
South Carolina
Senate: Senator Tim Scott (R) was unopposed in the primary. He awaits the results of a Democratic runoff between State Rep. Krystle Matthews and author Catherine Fleming Bruce. In the primary just two weeks ago, Bruce earned 34.7%, Matthews 33.2%, and Angela Geter 32.1%. This is about as close as a 3-way race can get, which also makes it nearly impossible to predict who will win tomorrow.
House: No runoffs.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Note: Yesterday I updated my Oklahoma Senate analysis with new polling data, FEC campaign finance data, and more. Go take a look and share it with your friends - there’s only one more week until election day!
Other Note: I hit the wrong button when recording today’s audio version, so I apologize for the poor sound quality. Lesson learned. Next week’s edition will be top-notch!
—Eric
It’s a busy time in Washington, with ongoing January 6 hearings, continued negotiations over gun law reforms, the pending release of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs opinion on abortion, and more. I’m going to do my best to stay on top of it all and make sure you’re the first to know what’s important and why it matters!
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. I start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 20, 2022.
Today is 141 days until the November midterm elections (about 20 weeks).
We are 869 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
Dobbs watch is on
The Supreme Court’s term typically ends the last week of June or first week of July. Many years this goes by without notice, but not 2022. We are still waiting for opinions to be handed down in 19 cases. The blockbuster of the term will be Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which is widely expected to overturn Roe v. Wade after a draft decision was leaked in May. There’s no way to know for sure if the opinion will come out this week or next, but it’s going to consume the week’s news when it does.
Why this matters: The Biden administration is struggling under a rash of bad news, much of it economic. The pending Dobbs decision could supercharge the social and cultural debate on the hottest of hot-button issues. Some left-wing activist groups have already been committing violence against pregnancy care centers and promising more if Dobbs overturns Roe - actions condemned by the White House last week. A man was arrested two weeks ago just steps from Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home and charged with attempted murder of the Justice.
Bottom line: The temperature is already approaching the boiling point in our society. There is a significant chance Dobbs could be the catalyst to set off major protests and civic unrest.
Recession talk picks up
Last week, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by 0.75%, the largest increase since 1994. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also suggested rates could rise another 0.50% or 0.75% next month. In the wake of this announcement, financial and political media began fiercely debating whether or not the Fed’s actions intended to rein in inflation will cause a recession.
Why this matters: The current inflation rate stands at an eye-popping 8.6% and has been rising steadily since bottoming out two years ago at 0.1% in May 2020. Inflation of consumer goods, gasoline, and grocery prices has been hitting Americans - aka voters - hard in the pocketbook throughout the first half of 2022. The stock market entered bear market territory last week, down 20% from its recent peak. If a true recession hits in the next few months, causing job losses and more economic harm, it will be politically catastrophic for the party in the White House, whether or not they caused the problems.
Bottom line: Democrats are already expecting a red wave in November. A recession in the next four months would turn that red wave into a red tsunami.
Gun deal hits speed bump
Last week I reported on the landmark framework agreement on gun reform, but cautioned that it was far from a done deal. Just days later, word came from Congressional negotiators that the bill’s language has hit a snag over how to define “boyfriend” (or “girlfriend”) when attempting to close the “boyfriend loophole.” Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) has threatened to toss out the entire provision.
Why this matters: As always with bipartisan agreements, the devil is in the details. Sometimes there is true disagreement in the detailed legislative language; sometimes negotiators feeling heat from their base for making a deal find a reason to blow it up. So far it still seems that negotiators have not gotten cold feet on the overall package, but this could be a bad sign.
Bottom line: Conservatives and Progressives have each been internally split on whether or not this compromise is a good deal. While the boyfriend issue is a legitimately difficult one to hammer out, it also buys both sides more time to take the temperature of their parties and decide if they really want to move forward or not.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Bill Clinton offers advice on talking to pro-gun rights activists: “Don’t talk down to them”
Biden likely to meet Saudi crown prince, reversing campaign vow
Jan. 6 Panel Puts Trump Fund-Raising Tactics Under Scrutiny
GOP Senate retirements could spell trouble for earmarks’ future
House looks to beef up security, braces for unions with Legislative Branch bill
10 lawmakers who followed their fathers’ path to Congress
Brooklyn venue cancels sold-out concert featuring attempted Reagan assassin
The End of the Millennial Lifestyle Subsidy
Get ready for the catastrophic Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) shortage
Joe Biden tips over (he’s okay)
And a fun one:
Triumph the Insult Comic Dog arrested for unlawful entry at U.S. Capitol
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
Republicans picked up one seat this week with the special election victory of Connie Conway (R-CA) in California’s 22nd District to serve out the remaining term of Devin Nunes (R-CA), who resigned in January. This week, Mayra Flores (R-TX) won the race to succeed Filemon Vela (D-TX), and once she is sworn in on Tuesday, the Republicans will pick up one more from the vacancy column. But as of today, Democrats hold a 220-209 advantage over the GOP. Six seats are vacant. This gives the Dems an 11-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails).
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 39.8% Approve, 54.2% Disapprove (Net: -14.4%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.0%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. Biden’s approval level is now 2.8 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.2% Approve, 69.0% Disapprove (Net: -47.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 1.0%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.5
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 1.0%
Recent trend: Republicans have held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is in Delaware until Tuesday. He leaves Saturday for a six-day European trip to attend the G7 summit in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain.
House
In Session Tuesday through Friday this week. Recess the next two weeks.
Senate
In Session this week. Recess the next two weeks.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 21
Alabama (Runoffs)
Senate: Katie Britt, former Chief of Staff to retiring Senator Richard Shelby, takes on Rep. Mo Brooks. Britt has maintained a healthy lead in recent polls, but Brooks’ resurgence since being left for dead by Trump in March leaves many uncertain of the outcome. If he can continue that momentum and complete his comeback, it would send a massive statement about Trump’s continuing grip on the GOP.
House: One runoff in the 5th District Republican Primary. This race to replace Mo Brooks pits Dale Strong (who received 44.7% in the primary) vs. Casey Wardynski (23.0%).
Arkansas (Runoffs: no Senate or House runoffs)
Georgia (Runoffs)
Senate: No runoff
House: Several House primaries have proceeded to runoffs. I will focus on the seats that are potentially in play in November.
The 2nd District GOP primary will have Jeremy Hunt (37.0%) face Chris West (30.1%). Hunt is endorsed by Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Josh Hawley (R-MO). The winner will face 30-year Democratic incumbent Rep. Sanford Bishop in a race rated anywhere from Tossup to Likely D. The new 2nd District rates D+4 and is the most competitive district in the state. It should be highly competitive in November.
The 6th District GOP primary will have Rich McCormick (43.1%) face Jake Evans (23.0%). The seat Is currently held by Rep. Lucy McBath (D), but she opted to run in the nearby 7th District, as the new 6th is heavily Republican at R+24. Evans is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, while McCormick is endorsed by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and several sitting U.S. Representatives.
The 10th District GOP primary will have Mike Collins (25.6%) face Vernon Jones (21.5%) in a race to replace Rep. Jody Hice (R), who unsuccessfully challenged the Georgia Secretary of State in the recent primary. Collins is endorsed by Governor Brian Kemp, while Jones is endorsed by former President Donald Trump. The district leans heavily Republican at R+31.
Virginia (Primaries)
Senate: No Senate election.
House: Virginia will have several competitive elections among its 11 seats.
The new 2nd District leans R+6, putting incumbent Elaine Luria (D) in deep trouble. Four Republicans are on the ballot fighting to face Luria, and it appears Jen Kiggans has gained the most support.
In the 7th District, leaning D+2, incumbent Abigail Spanberger (D) will face whichever opponent wins the six-way GOP primary. The district’s even partisan split and close proximity to DC will make it one of the most closely watched and hard-fought of the cycle.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Summer is definitely here, and things are figuratively heating up in DC, too. Last week the January 6 primetime hearings drew lots of attention, news came yesterday of a deal on gun legislation, and the Democrats began speaking openly of replacing President Biden on the 2024 ticket. We’ll get into those stories and more.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 13, 2022.
Today is 148 days until the November midterm elections (about 21 weeks).
We are 876 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Top Storylines
January 6 Committee continues its hearings
Last Thursday, nearly 19 million people watched the prime-time hearing held by the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack. The Committee’s presentation alleged a seven-part conspiracy by President Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential Election. This week brings three more days of hearings on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but they will not be held in prime time.
Why this matters: The 19 million viewership number for the Thursday night hearing was surprisingly high. With this week’s hearings being during the workday, expect much less attention for the subsequent episodes. Thursday’s hearing did not have any true bombshells and mainly re-stated many things that had been discussed at length previously.
Bottom line: Ultimately, everyone already has their minds made up about January 6. For Democrats, it is clear President Trump tried to overturn a free and fair election, and he and his supporters should be held fully accountable as such. For Republicans, it was either not nearly as bad as Democrats make it out to be, or it was a one-off event that got out of control due to some bad apples in the crowd. No hearing, prime-time or not, is going to change this dynamic.
Gun control compromise reached
On Sunday, a group comprised of 10 Democrat Senators and 10 Republican Senators announced they had reached a deal on a framework to reform certain gun laws. The agreement includes incentives for states to implement “red flag” laws, increased funding for school security, and increased funding for mental health services.
Why this matters: Democrats needed to find 10 GOP votes to overcome the filibuster, and it appears they have them. However, I will be watching the response of gun control activists closely. There's a chance they will be outraged by the tepid nature of this agreement and will demand more.
Bottom line: If activists raise enough of a ruckus, this agreement could fall apart in the Senate before it even reaches a vote. They also could create chaos in the House by pushing progressive members to demand a stronger bill, which could torpedo passage.
Cracks in Biden’s united front starting to show
President Biden has continually said he plans to run for re-election in 2024. However, his sliding approval numbers plus seemingly endless bad economic news have been privately worrying Democrats. Privately, that is, until the New York Times ran a story last week entitled “Should Biden Run in 2024? Democratic Whispers of ‘No’ Start to Rise.” The story quoted several high-profile Democrats on the record raising concerns about Biden’s fitness and ability to run, including top Obama strategist David Axelrod.
Why this matters: Now that these arguments have spilled out into the public - and in the New York Times, no less - the gloves will come off. Notably, the story says that few Democrats have an appetite to run Vice President Kamala Harris, and said they are openly exploring other options.
Bottom line: Without a looming re-election bid, any President quickly earns lame-duck status, making it nearly impossible to get anything new done. Unfortunately for Biden, it looks more and more like that day is quickly approaching.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Paladino Draws Backlash for Calling Hitler “the Kind of Leader We Need”
“Clusterf--k”: Inside The Washington Post’s Social Media Meltdown
Inflation Sped Up Again in May, Dashing Hopes for Relief
Gas prices present glaring problem for Biden
Biden nixes Trump design for Air Force One over cost, delay
Colorado to Examine Lauren Boebert’s Mileage Claims and Tax Liens
Hill staff just got raises. Now members say it's their turn.
Another Challenge for November: Getting Enough Paper for the Ballots
Chart: Skyrocketing Cost of Eggs, Milk, Meat, and Other Food Staples
And a fun one:
2022 Uber Lost & Found, including the “50 most unique items lost.” Some examples:
Metal leg
Tube for chugging drinks. Very expensive.
A dart that says “unleash the beast”
Some tater tots
6 pool drains and an Employee of the Month plaque
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 40.2% Approve, 53.6% Disapprove (Net: -13.4%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.5%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. Biden’s approval level is now 3 points below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.6% Approve, 68.4% Disapprove (Net: -46.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: No change.
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +3.5
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 1.4%
Recent trend: Republicans held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is returning today from a weekend in Delaware. He will speak to the AFL-CIO Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
House
In Session Monday through Thursday this week. Recess the next two weeks.
Senate
In Session this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 14
Maine
No Senate race.
House: Maine’s two House districts are quite different. In the 1st District, Chellie Pingree (D) is safe for re-election. The 2nd District, where Rep. Jared Golden (D) is running for re-election, is rated as a toss-up. His opponent will likely be former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R), who Golden defeated in 2018 to win the seat. It is expected to be hotly contested.
Nevada
Senate: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) running for re-election; pure toss-up. Adam Laxalt (R) is a heavy favorite in the GOP primary and is likely to face Cortez Masto in November.
House: Nevada’s four House members (3 Democrats and 1 Republican) are all running for re-election. With the 3 Dem seats rated D+2, D+3, and D+3, all three of these races will be heavily contested and are potential Republican pickups.
North Dakota
Senate: John Hoeven (R) is safe for re-election.
House: Kelly Armstrong (R) is safe for re-election.
South Carolina
Senate: Tim Scott (R) is safe for re-election.
House: Reps. Nancy Mace (R) and Tom Rice (R) have been targeted by former President Trump in the primary for perceived disloyalty. South Carolina is a runoff state, so if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, the top two will proceed to a runoff just two weeks later.
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
Welcome to all of our new readers - we’ve got a lot on tap this week! Keep an eye out for another deep dive into a pivotal U.S. Senate race mid-week. And later in the week, you’ll have a chance to participate in a Discussion Thread - email me if you have a topic to suggest! Just click reply on this email or type it in the comments at the bottom.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, June 6, 2022.
Today is 155 days until the November midterm elections (about 22 weeks).
We are 883 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Biden White House struggling to find direction
An NBC News report released Tuesday described a sense of panic setting in at the White House in recent weeks. Headlined, “Inside a Biden White House adrift,” the story spells out the frustrations of both President Biden and staffers. According to their sources, Biden is “bristling at how [staffers have] tried to stifle the plain-speaking persona that has long been one of his most potent assets,” like trying to immediately walk back his off-the-cuff statements in clear contradiction of his words. Aides feel Biden has been dealt an unfair hand of consecutive crises, saying he “just can’t catch a break.” Speculation is high that Biden may shake up his staff, including replacing Chief of Staff Ron Klain.
Why this matters: We are still about five months out from the election, but the left is already starting to point fingers about who should take the blame for an electoral loss. The month of May saw the “right track/wrong track” polls plummet from -32.6% to -47.8%, and “wrong track” now stands at a whopping 70.3%.
White House staffers complaining about their bad luck with world events will not garner much sympathy from voters. President Biden ran on a platform of essentially a “return to normal,” and whether or not it’s his fault, things are most definitely not normal.
Bottom line: As the saying goes, The Buck Stops Here. This means voters will hold the President accountable whether or not everything is his fault and whether or not it’s fair. Biden and the rest of his team had better stop making excuses and start acting like they’re responsible, because voters will hold them responsible either way.
House to vote on gun bills this week
On Wednesday and Thursday, the House of Representatives plans to vote on two bills intended to address gun violence: H.R. 2377, the Federal Extreme Risk Protection Order Act of 2021, and H.R. 7910, the Protecting Our Kids Act. After last week’s contentious Judiciary Committee hearings, expect the Floor debate to get heated and the votes to fall largely along party lines.
Why this matters: Democratic leadership has taken some heat from both parties for wrapping several gun-related priorities together into H.R. 7910. If the pieces were separated into individual bills and members were forced to vote on each individual proposal, some may have a greater chance of passing and gaining bipartisan support. Wrapping them together in an omnibus gun bill risks looking like a political tactic rather than a plan to actually pass legislation.
Bottom line: Democrats will face pressure to split up the bills into smaller component parts and force multiple votes. Politically, they would be wise to do so. When many things are tied together in a big package, it makes it much easier for opponents to find a justification to vote against the entire bill. If the goal is to put maximum pressure on Republicans, they should split up the bills.
Ukraine war starting to turn in Russia’s favor
The Russia-Ukraine war crossed the 100-day mark last week. Ukraine’s early victories, both militarily and in world public opinion, left the impression among many that Ukraine had emerged victorious. In reality, Russia regrouped and turned its focus to the eastern portion of the country, and its new strategy is showing signs of success. Moscow’s new focus is a brutal war of attrition, which over time it believes it will win. Russia now controls a wide swath of southeastern Ukraine, including the Black Sea coast and the Donbas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Russia now controls about 20% of the country. Many Ukrainian troops are reportedly demoralized amid brutal Russian tactics.
Why this matters: After the massive initial spike in interest, the conflict has faded from Americans’ consciousness. Google search results for “Ukraine” peaked on February 24 at a relative value (RV) of 100. As the chart below shows, today the RV is 2, meaning interest has dropped 98%.
Bottom line: In a drawn-out war of attrition, Ukraine risks losing the world’s attention and support. Their population and military capabilities are far less than those of Russia. President Zelensky has shown the ability to garner public attention and support in the past; he may have to dial up those efforts to secure a long-term victory.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Jan. 6 committee set to make its case public with prime-time hearings
Biden lays out three-part plan to fight inflation
Issue polling on guns doesn’t match how voters actually vote
It’s voters, not lobbyists, who shape the GOP gun agenda
Professors say mass shooters overwhelmingly fit a certain profile that can be ID’d in advance
U.S. warship arrives in Stockholm for military exercises, and as a warning
Fetterman’s heart issues add wild card to key Pennsylvania Senate race
Dept. of Health and Human Services announces office of environmental justice
Governors push back on SEC climate disclosure proposal
Age distribution of the U.S. population vs. U.S. Congress
Axios maps the distribution of voter intensity on major policy issues
And a fun one:
When celebrating your heroes for Memorial Day, try not to use Chinese fighter jets.
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
No changes this week. Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 40.8% Approve, 53.7% Disapprove (Net: -12.9%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.7%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 3 points. Biden’s approval level remains slightly below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.4% Approve, 68.2% Disapprove (Net: -46.8%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.8%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +2.1
Change from last week: GOP advantage up 0.2%
Recent trend: Republicans held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s from mid-January until mid-May. Since then, the gap has narrowed slightly and has leveled out around the +2 range.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden will be in Los Angeles Wednesday and Thursday, then will make a trip to Santa Fe, New Mexico, on Saturday.
House
In Session Tuesday through Thursday this week. In Session Monday through Thursday next week.
Senate
In Session this week and next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 7
California
Senate: Alex Padilla (D) safe for election to a full term. Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsome when Kamala Harris resigned to accept the Vice Presidency. Safe D seat with jungle primary. All candidates are on one primary ballot, regardless of party. The top two vote-getters in the primary will face off in the November general election.
This one has a weird quirk. Since Padilla was appointed to fill out an unexpired term, he serves in that role until Californians can vote at the next general election on who will hold the seat for the completion of the term. That means Californians must vote this November 8 on who will serve out the remainder of VP Harris’s unexpired term. But that term ends on January 3, 2023, so the special election will only determine who holds the seat for about a month and a half. The election for the full six-year term for the same seat is on the same ballot; whoever wins that election will be sworn in on January 3 and serve for six years. Confused yet?
All of this will almost certainly not matter, as Padilla is expected to win both the Special and Regular elections for the seat, but it makes for quite a trivia question.
House: As the most populous state, California has the most House seats, at 52. However, the 2020 census marks the first time in its 170-year history that the state has ever lost a Congressional seat, as its growth did not keep pace with the rest of the country in the 2010s. Given its unique jungle primary system, expect several unexpected storylines to emerge.
Iowa
Senate: Chuck Grassley (R) safe for re-election. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Grassley up 18 among likely general election voters against former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (D).
House: Only one of the state’s four Congressional seats has a primary battle. The 3rd District GOP primary winner will face Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in one of the best GOP takeover targets nationwide. The new 3rd in southwest Iowa is rated as R+2, and Axne only won 48.9% to 47.5% in 2020.
Montana
No Senate race
House: Montana gained a seat in the census, taking it from one at-large seat to two seats. This makes Montana the first state relegated to at-large status (in 1993) to regain a second Congressional seat. However, both seats are strongly Republican, with MT-1 rating at R+10 and MT-2 at R+30. With current Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) opting to run in the 2nd District, the open 1st District has five GOP contestants.
New Jersey
No Senate race
House: New Jersey retains its 12 seats from the prior census. In the 8th District, Rep. Albio Sires (D) is retiring, creating an open race for the heavily Democratic seat. All other incumbents are running for re-election. Of these, the 7th District is the most likely to be in play in the general election, as it leans R+3 but is currently held by Rep. Tom Malinowski (D).
New Mexico
No Senate race
House: New Mexico retains its three seats from the prior census. Overall, the state’s map is one of the more evenly-drawn maps, with NM-1 rated D+11, NM-2 as D+5, and NM-3 as D+4. Incumbent Yvette Herrell’s (R) 2nd District went from R+14 to D+4, providing a huge test. The other two representatives are both Democrats in Dem-leaning districts, but each has seen their expected margins shrink. Rep. Melanie Stansbury’s 1st District has gone from D+18 to D+11, and Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez’s 3rd District went from D+14 to D+5. All three incumbents are running for re-election. These races should all be interesting to watch.
South Dakota
Senate: John Thune (R) safe for re-election.
House: One at-large seat, leaning heavily Republican at R+32, expected to be easily held by incumbent Dusty Johnson (R).
In Closing…
I'd love your feedback on what would be more helpful to you; more of, less of, different, etc. Please leave a comment or reply to this email with your thoughts. Thank you for listening and reading!
—Eric
Get full access to Get Smart Politics at getsmartpolitics.substack.com/subscribe
I hope you are enjoying your Memorial Day weekend with family and loved ones. Take some time today to think about the people who have fought on our behalf to ensure we all have the right to live in a free society and speak our minds.
The Political Cheat Sheet comes out Monday mornings. We start with a high-level overview of the info in graphical form. If you don’t have time for anything else, just take a quick look every week. Save the image to your phone's photo library for quick reference until next Monday! If you want more detail, scroll past the image.
What's happening this week
This is your Political Cheat Sheet for the week starting Monday, May 30, 2022.
Today is Memorial Day, a day to recognize the sacrifices of all those who have served in the armed forces in defense of our country.
Today is 162 days until the November midterm elections (about 23 weeks).
We are 890 days from the 2024 Presidential election (about 29 months).
Top Storylines
Gun laws take center stage
In the wake of the mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, Congressional debate over gun laws has risen to a crescendo. Both the House and Senate are out of session until next week, so we are guaranteed at least one more week of positioning and negotiation before anything happens. House Dems have pledged a vote on a “red flag” law, while Senate Dems are looking for a “modest” deal on guns that could gain enough GOP support to overcome the filibuster. Some Republicans have expressed slightly more willingness to entertain these ideas than in the past, but there’s a long way to go before a deal is struck.
Why this matters: Mainstream Republican Senators are wary of anything that might mess up what looks to be a big red wave coming their way this November. If they feel like standing in the way of reform is likely to cause a backlash, expect several of them to look for a compromise to avoid it.
Bottom line: Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them in order to overcome a filibuster. This is only going to happen if the heat builds. If other news storylines crowd out the gun law reform debate, GOP Senators will feel less pressure to pass something this summer and no new gun-related laws will pass.
U.S. course change on Taiwan will have big future effects
Early last week during a press conference in Tokyo, a reporter asked President Biden if he “was willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan.” He responded, “yes.” This simple exchange has lit the foreign relations world afire. For decades, American Presidents have gone to extreme lengths to avoid giving such clear answers about the U.S.’s commitment to Taiwan. The effort has been so longstanding and deliberate that American policy toward Taiwan is referred to as “strategic ambiguity.”
White House officials immediately tried to walk back his statements, saying that U.S.-Taiwan policy has not changed. Biden himself did so at a press conference the next day, saying, “The policy has not changed at all.” However, explicitly committing to defend Taiwan militarily is a change in policy - and a major one, at that. Also, this is the third time in a year and a half that President Biden has said or implied he would intervene to defend Taiwan, and his pronouncements are getting stronger.
Why this matters: Taiwan and China have been mortal enemies for over 70 years. Amid the Chinese Civil War in the late 1940s, a Communist offensive drove the Chinese government to retreat to Taiwan. Since 1949, that government has considered itself the rightful Chinese government in exile, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ruled China as the de facto government, eventually gaining recognition by most of the world as the actual government of China. The CCP has long promised to snuff out this last remnant of their predecessors. If the U.S. intervenes in this civil war militarily, many fear it could mean the start of World War III.
Bottom line: President Biden can say all he wants that his words do not represent a change in policy, but Beijing, Taipei, and the rest of the world see it differently. If the President of the United States, the Commander in Chief of U.S. Armed Forces, says he will intervene in a conflict between China and Taiwan, it means something. Perhaps this is the right move, perhaps wrong, but it is enormously consequential either way.
Shifting GOP dynamics on display in Georgia, Alabama primaries
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s 73.5% to 21.9% romp over Trump-backed David Perdue in last week’s gubernatorial primary has shifted the center of gravity for Republicans. For months, this race was one of former President Trump’s top targets, as he wished to punish Kemp for his perceived disloyalty in the 2020 election. Despite this, Kemp more than tripled Perdue’s vote. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was also a top Trump target, but he similarly trounced Trump-backed challenger Congressman Jody Hice 52.1% to 33.7%.
One state to the west, in Alabama, Congressman Mo Brooks earned a spot in a runoff for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Richard Shelby. He did this despite being “un-endorsed” and left for dead by Trump a few weeks ago.
Several other mixed results around the country over the past few weeks have led less-Trumpy Republicans to feel more emboldened to express a differing view from the former President for the first time in several years.
Why this matters: If President Trump is becoming the leader of a faction of the Republican Party rather than the leader of the party as a whole, it could be the first realignment in the party since he first consolidated power in 2016. For the past six years, those with differing views have been instantly sidelined and shunned, effectively killing their careers on the spot.
Bottom line: Don’t count Trump out yet. He is still by far the most popular figure within the GOP, and if he announces a re-election bid it could cause the party to coalesce behind him once more. But these results do show he is not invincible, and that at some point the party will evolve beyond his leadership.
What I'm Watching
Here are some of the top stories I read in the past week:
Biden’s words on Taiwan leave allies in an awkward spot
The Economist explains America’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan
How Brian Kemp brilliantly politically kneecapped David Perdue in Georgia Governor primary
Review of the gun-related bills currently pending in Congress
McConnell taps Cornyn to negotiate with Dems on gun legislation
House Dems plan early June vote on “red flag” proposal
Polls show no bump for Dems after Dobbs leak
Former House Speaker Paul Ryan: Lawmakers now climb the ranks of Congress by “being an entertainer”
Moneyball in Politics: How every Senator and Governor ranks according to “Popularity Above Replacement”
Outstanding take on “How Institutions Crumble” that merits a pull quote:
One of the greatest challenges for a republic is whether citizens, including elites and politicians, are willing to put institutional preservation over their immediate policy and political goals.
That willingness is always being tested, because people can rationalize that the institutional costs will be paid in the future while the policy and political gains may be enjoyed now. And institutional fidelity becomes particularly difficult in times of political polarization when many on each side of the aisle believe that the policies and politics of the other side are not only wrong, but evil.
And a fun one:
As an avid tennis-playing family, we take great delight in stories about Pickleballers eating their own
Balance of Power
House of Representatives
We have a change! On Tuesday, Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) submitted his resignation to accept an appointment as Lieutenant Governor of New York. His resignation was effective 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.
With that change, Democrats hold a 220-208 advantage over the GOP. Seven seats are now vacant. This gives the Dems a 12-vote advantage, meaning the majority cannot lose more than five members on any vote (if a House vote ends in a tie, the bill fails). If Republicans pick up seven or more Democratic seats in November, the balance of power would flip in the chamber.
Senate
The Senate is tied, with 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tie-breaking vote.
Polling
President
Average: 40.6% Approve, 54.2% Disapprove (Net: -13.6%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 0.4%
Recent trend: The past month has seen President Biden’s net approval drop about 2 points. This week Biden dropped to his lowest-ever point in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, reaching just 36% support, and only 72% among his own party. Biden’s approval level remains slightly below where President Trump’s was at this point in his term.
Congress
Average: 21.8% Approve, 67.8% Disapprove (Net: -42.0%)
Change (in Net) from last week: Down 2.0%
Recent trend: These numbers have remained fairly stable since mid-January.
Generic Ballot
Average: GOP +1.9
Change from last week: GOP advantage down 0.2%
Recent trend: Last week the GOP advantage appeared to be slightly narrowing. After another week of polling, the Republican advantage narrowed another 0.2%. Still not enough to pronounce a trend, but we’ll keep watching. Republicans had held a fairly consistent advantage in the +3s to low +4s since mid-January.
On the Calendar
President
President Biden is in Wilmington, Delaware today, then will be in DC the rest of the week with no public events or travel announced yet.
House
District Work Week. Next week is also a District Work Week. In Session again beginning Tuesday, June 7.
Senate
State Work Week. In session next week.
Upcoming Primaries
Full list of primaries
Tomorrow: Tuesday, May 31
No Primaries
Next Tuesday, June 7
California
Senate: Alex Padilla (D) safe for election to a full term. Padilla was appointed to the seat in January 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsome when Kamala Harris resigned to accept the Vice Presidency. Safe D seat with jungle primary. All candidates are on one primary ballot, regardless of party. The top two vote-getters in the primary will face off in the November general election.
This one has a weird quirk. Since Padilla was appointed to fill out an unexpired term, he serves in that role until Californians can vote at the next general election on who will hold the seat for the completion of the term. That means Californians must vote this November 8 on who will serve out the remainder of VP Harris’s unexpired term. But that term ends on January 3, 2023, so the special election will only determine who holds the seat for about a month and a half. The election for the full six-year term for the same seat is on the same ballot; whoever wins that election will be sworn in on January 3 and serve for six years. Confused yet?
All of this will almost certainly not matter, as Padilla is expected to win both the Special and Regular elections for the seat, but it makes for quite a trivia question.
House: As the most populous state, California has the most House seats, at 52. However, the 2020 census marks the first time in its 170-year history that the state has ever lost a Congressional seat, as its growth did not keep pace with the rest of the country in the 2010s. Given its unique jungle primary system, expect several unexpected storylines to emerge.
Iowa
Senate: Chuck Grassley (R) safe for re-election. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Grassley up 18 among likely general election voters against former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer (D).
House: Only one of the state’s four Congressional seats has a primary battle. The 3rd District GOP primary winner will face Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in one of the best GOP takeover targets nationwide. The new 3rd in southwest Iowa is rated as R+2, and Axne only won 48.9% to 47.5% in 2020.
Montana
No Senate race
House: Montana gained a seat in the census, taking it from one at-large seat to two seats. This makes Montana the first state relegated to at-large status (in 1993) to regain a second Congressional seat. However, both seats are strongly Republican, with MT-1 rating at R+10 and MT-2 at R+30. With current Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) opting to run in the 2nd District, the open 1st District has five GOP contestants.
New Jersey
No Senate race
House: New Jersey retains its 12 seats from the prior census. In the 8th District, Rep. Albio Sires (D) is retiring, creating an open race for the heavily Democratic seat. All other incumbents are running for re-election. Of these, the 7th District is the most likely to be in play in the general election, as it leans R+3 but is currently held by Rep. Tom Malinowski (D).
New Mexico
No Senate race
House: New Mexico retains its three seats from the prior census. Overall, the state’s map is one of the more evenly-drawn maps, with NM-1 rated D+11, NM-2 as D+5, and NM-3 as D+4. Incumbent Yvette Herrell’s (R) 2nd District went from R+14 to D+4, providing a huge test. The other two representatives are both Democrats in Dem-leaning districts, but each has seen their expected margins shrink. Rep. Melanie Stansbury’s 1st District has gone from D+18 to D+11, and Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez’s 3rd District went from D+14 to D+5. All three incumbents are running for re-election. These races should all be interesting to watch.
South Dakota
Senate: John Thune (R) safe for re-election.
House: One at-large seat, leaning heavily Republican at R+32, expected to be easily held by incumbent Dusty Johnson (R).
In Closing…
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