Breakfast With Bill: Recent Episodes
Bill Graff
Planting pace, wheat double crop soybeans, Illinois Republican Convention, politics and a Farm Bill Update
Will the house Republicans get a farm bill out of committee and passed before the election? I also discuss how other current events may affect the potential farm bill.
NASS Acres, Bridge down, Trump and Mainstream agriculture and Biden’s new Chinese tariffs, Inflation Reduction Act the Dems have their farm program already, get in line or else, reminds me of the late 1970s in agriculture
Taxes, regulations, rules and court cases are having a self sorting effect on where people live, do business and where you even incorporate your business. Is Illinois becoming California quicker than California became California? Plus other examples.
I discuss the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and the record breaking results. I also discuss future primaries and other political events going on
I was asked this question today so I thought I would give you all an answer. What do I listen to? Well listen and find out
Suez Canal, low water with the Panama Canal and Mississippi River and recent rail closures has really changed the transportation landscape
Financial problems, transportation problems, state budget problems, I look at what is ahead of Agriculture in early 2024
Lots going on in the world. Agriculture is looking for a new Farm Bill. I mention what I don’t want to see happen and that a two year extension is not a bad thing. I mention a very good protest song and mainly all the politics going on around a new Farm Bill
Discuss where the corn crop is at where corn prices are and do we spend anymore money on this corn crop
all the signers of the Declaration of Independence committed treason a word that is thrown around a lot these days
and I give a personal update on the drought
We finish part 1 of presidential politics and give a couple book recommendations and videos to watch
Myself and a special guest discuss the upcoming primaries and general elections that will decide who is President in 2025
Russian Grain Deal, De-Globalization part 2, China possibility going to war????, Banks and bad paper, lots to digest and all interwoven. How do we manage all this risk?
Discussion on a new farm bill. Why I think we should just extend the current one for two years. What conservative republicans want and what democrats want.
BRICS and now BRIICSS plus And China being the diplomatic peace maker? Unipolar USA dominated worth to a multi-polar many countries dominated world. Is US agriculture prepared for this?
XI is heading to Russia and hoping to convince them and Ukraine to come to some kind of peace deal. This has big implications for American agriculture. I dive into what I see as possible outcomes.
Lots of economic and political situations going on right now. I have more questions than answers but do have the experience of going through the 1989s.
Oil being traded in a currency other than the dollar. The Ukraine War is getting dangerous for the world. Trump election jury in Georgia is just nuts. SBF donated more money to politicians than known before
Labor continues to be a problem for agriculture. I discuss some possible options. Land use livestock buildings and foreign ownership specifically.
Gone to several farm meetings this winter. My take on what was discussed and what I thought was important. I also touch on today’s news about Russia and oil.
So much going on the last full week of January 2023. Most of it will probably at some point affect agriculture. Some of it in a big way. I discuss this. Enjoy
Lots of opinions on not only what should be in a Farm Bill, but if, how, why, or an extension happens with the “new” farm bill. The Conservative 20 may have some influence since they were given the chance to make a run for a balanced budget
The Twenty, which are 20 conservatives, mainly from the Freedom Caucus who used their leverage to the fullest to hopefully what will be a fundamental change in how Washington D.C. operates. Campaign donations from crypto currency Sam Bankman Fried and others and high tech employees that have went primarily to democrats and how this probably affected the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections. And, how some or most of these donations may dry up in 2024. Then finally the political unrest in Brazil and what that means for the soybean market.
Between the stock market and crypto, over 12 $ Trillion has been destroyed. Gone, disappeared, etc. and this will have consequences for global finances and personal finances. I look at real estate and a few other markets. Small discussion on FTX. Look at how this relates to agriculture and while the rest of the world is losing money agriculture continues to appreciate in value.
Well agriculture and the country has survived another election. I give my take on what happened. Not really bad for either side in the ending result. Split government may make it hard to come to an agreement on what direction a new farm bill will go. More likely result is a two year extension of the current one.
lots of background on how I learned a few things in politics. Some of the things I look at with making predictions. I then make my predictions for the 2022 elections nationally.
Ukraine/Russian war causes lots of problems. We have caused some ourselves. Lots to think about. I quote Jordan Peterson a lot in this podcast. What does winning look like? How does the world extract itself from this conflict? Lots of people in the world at great risk of being hungry and cold this winter.
Carbon dioxide pipe line so companies can be more green and jam it into the ground under some of the best soil in the world
Interest rates are rising input costs are increasing overall farmers are going to pay 40% more interest next year
Prairie solis, Mollisols, black dirt, whatever you call it, these soils are the best in the world. Only 6.9% of the world’s ice free soils. But these soils feed the world and a big war is being fought on a decent chunk of them now.
The Internet and the Printing Press. Are some of today’s problems the result of a huge uptick in information just like when the printing press was invented and people were able to read things for themselves. Such as the Bible. Huge changes happened then and are the changes we see now similar? I talk also how this affects agriculture
Agricultural Policy is always in the “developmental” stage, but recent world events have triggered outside the box discussions on policy. And then, some things have not changed for 40 years
Abe Lincoln, Liz Cheney, establishment agriculture and how it all relates to each other. Not as long as I originally thought. I reference my previous podcast "Trump and Sanders save democracy". Establishment agriculture is going to have its work cut out for it relating to both the "New Right" and the "New Left".
I also reference republican politicians who are establishment that want to wrap themselves as "Abraham Lincoln". Lincoln was a radical. He knew what his election would result in.
Lots of things happening in the world right now. Lots of unrest and not happy people around the world and in the United States. I look at all that is going on. Future episodes I will look at what agriculture needs to do.
So many new laws coming out of California. Other states are copying some of these. But, all these laws will affect what agriculture's profitability will become.
Lots of Federal Goverment employees not happy with what former President Trump is proposing for new work rules. So the “Empire” struck back. Career employees up and down the chain went along with what happened. Comments on that
Agriculture and the world has lots of things happening right now. I talk about these things. In later podcasts we will discuss how to survive them
Digital currency and social credit scores Why I think it is coming and maybe faster than you think
CPI 9.1% Discussion on high inflation and high internet rates and what that means for your bottom line
Valuation of assets and profit potential is at the heart of the Twitter “battle” agriculture faces many of the same problems
Illinois Republican primary a farmer won a Congressional Seat and another Farmer is the Republican candidate for governor You can win
Illinois while not the only state with a political situation it is in, has conservative agriculture organizations in a very liberal state. So how does one operate in that environment?
How, when, whatever, whenever, etc. and that is just the grain markets not the actual solutions
Another announcement from USDA that at the beginning sounds like it really may add some acres but once you read the fine print it doesn’t change much of anything
Inflation has probably done more to keep 1st term presidents from having a second term than anything else
Made our first new crop corn sales. Feel real good about it. At a price it will average out really well
As headlines come and go so do market impacts Social issues and stock market may dominate the news cycle for awhile knocking commodities, food versus fuel, and food prices to the back
1.4 billion bushel corn carryover Biden’s new planting “incentives” cooking oil and biodiesel compared to ethanol
Lots of misinformation about food and corn ethanol People do not eat number 2 yellow corn
Lots to unpack in agriculture and especially the marketing side of things. Easier to pre sell 22 than 23 crop. More questions than answers
If the government does a nitrogen subsidy doesn’t the suppliers just raise the price that much? Do we price corn before we buy nitrogen? Lots to unpack
Will Putin and XI try to establish a world trading system based on state controlled capitalism This has huge implications for American agriculture
I have had the pleasure of administering this program A couple ideas on how to get some production off these acres without upsetting the whole apple cart
Discuss the cost of energy and decisions that got us to this point and what we should do going forward to lower energy costs
Events are over taking agriculture combine this with supply chain issues and real hard to figure out which way to go
DC leadership screwed up energy policy so green stuff would work economically now Russia is using their windfall oil money to finance war and mischief
White House had a meat summit I give my take and bitcoins and markets from 2020 until now
Who in agriculture knows Joe Rogan? If agriculture’s message gets canceled do we have the connections to get around it. Discussion on what could happen and how we react to it
My father just received his third life insurance payout and hd is still alive. Good story
Good friend is a very good farm land broker His outlook on land prices compared to commodity prices
Lots of issues out there and now throw desperate politics into the mix and markets are at risk of both up snd down moves
Virginia and New Jersey governor elections along with many others my take on what it all means
Lots of issues getting overlooked right now expenses are up but so is income so maybe it is a wash
Interest rates to government rules and regulations and true believers it is an interesting Monday
Secretary of transportation has been taking lots of time off and how were his time sheets filled out and has he earned enough time off to not be at work that much Me thinks somebody needs to do a time and attendance audit of the Mayor’s time sheets
CNN kinda has a problem accusing Joe Rogan of taking horse dewormer Agricultural media is so much better than main stream media
USDA is going to form a commission that is going to look at changing farm programs so they are more equitable
I was inducted into the Illinios State University College of Applied Science and Technology Hall of Fame
2022 will be the most expensive crop ever put into the ground Has the commodity markets figured that out yey?
Lots of new tillage tools at the farm progress show and how thoughts have changed on tillage over the years
Things will probably get fixed faster than they are estimating on the lower Mississippi grain export facilities
Uncertainty in economy right now both massive Inflation and massive Deflation possible and it probably doesn’t matter which one
Lots of things going on in the world lots of outside influences especially on agricultural markets
Experts making broad statements and how their personal opinions get in the way and how long will it take for USDA to get to its final numbers
Debt relief implemented early in Biden administration is in the courts and how long we do not know Where does it go from here
Judi and I completed three days of crop tour think we found the corn garden Spot of the midwest
Judi and I driving west on 36 north on 63 and then we will report tomorrow what we find coming back east on 136
Lots of liquidation in the cattle market down the road where is all the beef coming from
California wants to tell everyone else how to farm What is the unintended consequences of this
Oregon trying to get a ballot initiative to basically outlaw animal agriculture bunch of people who really know nothing about production ag keep telling us how to do it
New York Times said it was not hot in the 1950s. That is a lie. 1954 was extremely hot and Illinios set its all time temperature high at 118 degrees in 1954.
Cuba having troubles, does US ag push for more trade or let the Cuban American politics play out?
Lots of people liking communism right now a governor declares July “victims of Communism month” and where do you put your money backyard pools
Biden is going to do some executive orders in relation to agriculture specifically meat packers and fixing your own tractor
Lots of climate activists looking at drought and high temperatures and complaining about climate crisis,I give an opposing opinion
First corn tassels appearing, update on our rain totals, an elevator purchase and a big crop report coming
Low river levels from a drought and now an early freeze lots of crop production problems in South America
Glenn Beck really nails it in dissecting the cattle markets I give my two cents about his great discussion
Discuss issues of the day a General’s comments and a guy who said “We are going to kill yourself”
Stock markets have a plunge protection team where is the commodity plunge protection team
WOTUS is getting changed again and probably this time not the way farmers would want and fed policy has helped to drive down markets
Farming hard to change jobs when your job is a family farm if you want to stay in farming
USDA changing several meat packing rules, grain markets are down and general Monday discussion
Waters of the United States is still an issue also talk drought monitor and June report
Weather and markets changing by the minute and June USDA report out tomorrow should be a non event but this year is different
For years cheap food and cheap energy allowed the rest of the economy to flourish. Lots of policy changes raising the price of energy, so what about food prices
Turned out some people were correct and main stream media was wrong but they will never admit it
Former chief of staff of former Illinios democrat patty boss was indicted by the Feds lots to discuss
New Illinios state house and state senate maps are out. Completely drawn by the dems. Rural areas lost a number of seats. Are you surprised?
As the republican party changes agriculture needs to do a better job of outreach to the “new” republicans
Everything seems to be in a shortage and is costing more. Discuss what this means for agriculture
Biden id proposing getting rid of 1031 exchanges, I discuss how this affects agriculture
Cover today everything from Bill Gates to Taiwan and Covid. Value of US dollar and finally Chinese new crop corn purchases
New political maps are being drawn right now. Big implications for commercial production agriculture
Communist bloc falling in 1989 changed the world, we are now seeing changes, Russia, China, etc that show me the world has moved on from that time Another great re-set in the world is going on
Talk about what is happening post USDA May report, weather,barges, 1970s all over again
May WASDE report is generally not a big market mover. Well May 2021 is not a typical year
Gas lines in the headlines followed by “are bread lines next” higher interest rates and all the other fun stuff the 70s brought with them
Lots of financial news this morning Inflation issues being number one and shortages of all kinds of things
Happened before and will happen again. Food inflation increase in food stamps wheat prices and a grain export embargo
A few Brazilian farmers are not fulfilling grain contracts that were sold way under current market prices. Grain companies are going to great lengths to enforce these contracts Also, corn planting done and pants, we need to do laundry
Electrical short in “active” seat has tractor “throwing codes” trying get it fixed with a little frustration
Ted Cruz has written an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal Going to possibly change how and with who farm groups work with on issues important to us going forward
Markets had a reversal yesterday and main topic is what census data is going to be used to re draw congressional districts
Grain markets showing lots of strength up front I wonder if there is a squeeze going on could get interesting
2021 has been a crazy year to market grain Everything seems to be just backwards from normal
Agriculture grain markets are going higher. I comment on other markets, tax policy, and negative interest rates
Lots of trouble in this part of the world. What does Russia get/want for mobilization of its armed forces? How does this affect your grain farming?
Grain Markets for new crop made new highs last night just what I am doing on my own farm for marketing grain
Talk about New Zealand discontinuing ship transportation of livestock and the “new” type of activist billionaires agriculture is up against in the policy arena
Trouble between Russia and Ukraine could be another flash point higher in world grain markets. Maybe more than we are expecting.