“People have been cooped up and they want to spend. And this is so bullish for the economy, I believe, over the next year. I think people are still dramatically underappreciating how strong the economy is going to be.“ – Ben Rabidoux   

Connect with Ben Rabidoux: LinkedIn Twitter

Selected links and people mentioned in this episode:

North Cove Advisors Edge Realty Analytics Georgian College B20 Core Development Group Wilful Blindness by Sam Cooper Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel Edge Analytics newsletter

Connect with REIN Canada REIN Canada CEO@reincanada.com REIN Channel Facebook Instagram Twitter

SHOW NOTES [02:08] Patrick introduces his next TEDM guest and fellow research aficionado: Ben Rabidoux. [03:03] The Ben and Patrick Economic Road Show gets rolling! Ben apprises us of what he does in the world of business, and the product he provides for real estate professionals through Edge Realty Analytics. [08:40] Ben describes how he came to the intensive space of research and analysis with North Cove Advisors and Edge Realty Analytics. With a background in human physical geography, he made a stop at the teaching station with Georgian College which gave him access to great institutional academic data so he started posting thoughts on the economy. Requests for consulting work soon began and he quickly realized a research product was in demand. Ben also explains his previous concerns about the dynamics of the housing market and how his outlook changed after B20 and the failure of the foreign buyer’s tax to generate a significant impact. With a decline in single family inventory, he found it difficult to see a meaningful slow down with active listings at 30-year lows. [16:23] Reminder: national economic and housing headlines are not necessarily indicative of regional economic climates! In 2018, large Canadian centres were seeing a lack of supply and high demand in the condos markets as young people were flocking to the city. Inevitably as life evolved this would lead to increased single-family demand, and a dramatic lack of supply was showing up; 2020 simply exacerbated that reality. [18:34] Ben provides insights from his research into housing inventory over the past five years. The supply underwent a dramatic drop, and he talks about why this occurred. [23:06] Single family detached space continues to be underdeveloped and the demand, whether rental or home ownership, is high. It’s an interesting opportunity for investors whether they are in the cycle of selling inventory, or still playing the long game and holding for future gains. Mortgage paydown is always a reliable piece of an investor’s strategy. [28:30] Patrick and Ben bandy about the true viability of large corporate builders who endeavour to develop large-scale single-family rentals. They each hold a slightly different view of that concept aside from agreement on the governmental bureaucratic barriers. [33:33] This segues into another component of increased demand for and speculation on single-family housing which is population, immigration targets, and foreign capital flows. [36:00] A breather in sales is the result of several things including the summer season, and fatigue from the state of the world over the past 18 months. It’s all relative though as Ben explains, because the first quarter of 2021 hit such a statistical peak that although a slow down is happening, the market is still incredibly strong. Inventory supply on a national level (we know, national stats are misleading...) are at a record low. [40:18] Throwing a pandemic into the spokes of a typically predictable real estate cycle analysis, can turn that predictability on its head. Ben provides data he has researched and reported on as a starting point to explain the confusion of a Canadian housing market run-up during such an unusual recession. Part of it is a result of unprecedented actions by the Canadian government together with unprecedented ca...