In this episode, Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads (Dr. VIX), and Scott Nations dive deep into a massive divergence brewing under the surface of the equity indexes. While S&P 500 volatility is sitting quietly at seasonal lows, Nasdaq 100 volatility tells a completely different story as tech and AI anticipation ramps up ahead of Microsoft's pivotal earnings report.
Key Topics Covered:
- The Volatility Review: Breaking down a massive two-week crush that dragged VIX cash down nearly 4 points, alongside drops in VOLY and the VVIX.
- The Nasdaq vs. S&P Divergence: Scott explains how VolDex measures show completely different volatility regimes for tech vs. broad market index options.
- The Tech "Canary": Why Russell has Microsoft's upcoming July 29th year-end earnings report circled as the ultimate reality check for the AI boom.
- VIX Futures & The Return of Volume: June options volume just put up a historic 1.6 billion contracts. Why are traders suddenly piling back into VIX futures?
- The "Dark Web" of Vol Trades: Analyzing a bizarre, deep-in-the-money August put spread and a massive November VIX call strip paired with a 1x6 put ratio spread.
- Crystal Ball: Predictions for where VIX and VOLI land by next week.