Infinite Loops
Key Takeaways * “Uncertainty is the only certainty.” – John Paulos * People use terms like millions, billions, and trillions as if they are the same thing; when in reality, these are vastly different amounts! * “We live in a probabilistic world, and yet we remain deterministic thinkers.” – Jim O’Shaughnessy * The Law of Large Numbers is a fundamental principle in probability and statistics that states that as the size of a sample increases, the average of the sample becomes closer to the expected value * Apophenia: The phenomenon of seeing patterns where none exist as a form of cognitive bias or psychological tendency * Humans are excellent pattern-recognition machines; but sometimes, we wrongly attribute patterns to random data that can lead us astray * The human operating system is more driven by the emotional centers of the brain than the rational centers of the brain * There is a tension between objective likelihood (probability) and subjective belief or reasonableness (plausibility) * The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a scenario in game theory where two individuals acting in their self-interest end up with a worse outcome than if they had cooperated * Cognitive foibles such as confirmation bias, the anchoring effect, and negativity bias should be taught in mathematical courses * Dunning-Kruger Effect: The phenomenon where people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability, while those with high ability underestimate their competence * The concept of “nudging” involves subtly influencing people’s decisions by altering the presentation of choices without restricting options or significantly changing incentives * It is wise to develop a particular skepticism and wariness about the uncertainties of life
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Professor, Mathematician and Writer John A. Paulos joins the show to discuss math education, the power of puzzles, cognitive biases, and MUCH more!
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