The Dividend Cafe: Recent Episodes
The Bahnsen Group
The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn
Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed pays more attention to core CPI (ex food and energy), which was up .3% on the month and stands now at 4.3% y/y. All said, we got about what we had expected today: decreasing shelter costs offset a rise in energy prices to some degree, and Fed futures didn’t budge much. Yields were up a few basis points across most of the curve, and stocks held in.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PExy76
Mexico has the strongest currency in the world this year. Its stock market is on fire (near the best in the world this year), It has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States (did you know that?). Direct investment from foreign countries into Mexico is up +40% in 2023 alone. Do you see why I refer to “near-shoring” as much as “on-shoring“? The diminishment of supply chain dependency on China in the United States is happening. But it may prove to be much more of a Mexico story than a Rust Belt story.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4680dH4
The first thing I will say before delving into this September 11 edition of DC Today as I sit here in New York City is that I honor those who were killed that day, and I will never, ever forget the atrocity that it was. I have written about this day in a very special Dividend Cafe before (I encourage you to re-read it), but regardless, whether it has been 22 years or when it is one day, 52 years, I will never, ever forget.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47WCxH3
I arrived back in California late last evening with Hurricane Franklin having cancelled our previously mentioned trip out of the country. Joleen and I replaced it with a couple days away at our place in the Hamptons, not exactly unplugged, but not exactly fully working. Maybe the notion of a true work-free unplugged trip will happen some day, but I have to say, so far, a pretty comical list of sincere attempts to see it happen have been tried and failed. I am very grateful to Brian Szytel for the last three days of DC Todays and I am back in the California office today and happy to be back with you.
We are up to an 89% chance in the futures market of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in late September, and a 54% chance of no hike at the meeting after that in November. The five-year inflation breakeven priced in the TIPS market is 2.16%. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, cautioned against the Fed over-tightening and said current Fed policy was “appropriately restrictive.”
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sAjvX7
Futures looked like we were going to give a little back from the move higher the past three days until about 830AM EST when we got a slew of softer than expected economic data, and since bad news is the new good for markets, moved us back into positive territory on the day. Q2 GDP was revised a little lower, ADP Payroll came in weaker than expected, and the part that is actually good news (meaning not a number showing our economy quite as fast as we thought and less people are finding jobs), Core PCE came in lower than expected for Q2. After yesterdays softer job openings and then today, fed fund futures are slowly tilting back towards peak rates but we are still at 55% pause and 45% hike for Nov/Dec. A good amount of numbers below for you, and a better amount of walking through it all in the video podcast link.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3L3fHUy
The third up day in a row in markets today in a broad-based rally that closed at the high. The S&P 500 is still down 2% for the month, but with three trading days left in the last week of summer, we’ll see if we get a little more back before Labor Day weekend. Yields were lower across the entire curve today, with treasuries rallying following a much lower-than-expected July JOLTS new jobs report. Following yesterday’s underwhelming market response to stimulus, China is considering having its major banks decrease mortgage rates on about 38 trillion yuan ($5T) worth of existing loans which moved markets there up 2% on the day. Whether those efforts will prove effective will have to be seen, but I do think it’s putting a bid in global energy prices, which were up again today.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK
Brian Szytel takes on DC Today through Wednesday, so we leave you in his capable hands!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK
The right thing to do with Dividend Cafe the weekend USC football season is beginning is just replay last year’s edition over and over again, one of my favorite Dividend Cafes of all time … But alas, I have never rehashed old material for a Dividend Cafe since this weekly writing began in September of 2008 and I won’t start now. Fresh and new every week is the commitment, so fresh and new you shall receive (no matters how much Fight On it sometimes entails).
You may have heard that tbere are other things happening in the world besides USC’s imminent kickoff to their season. As I type Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, is preparing to speak at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In the last 15 months or so he has raised the federal funds target rate over 5%, something nearly 100% of economists would have predicted would break the back of the economy a year ago. Here we are a year later, and not only is the economy not broken, but markets are not all that distraught, either. They aren’t great. And economic growth is tepid. But nothing has broken. Yet.
But we are not exactly out of the woods, either. And in fact one could argue that the damage done from the Fed’s tightening has surfaced (or is about to surface) in less obvious ways. And that is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Maybe the Fed wants to create 7% unemployment (because, you know, more people unemployed brings down prices). Maybe a lot of economists predict that will happen (and were predicting it 18 months ago). But whether economic recession should happen (it shouldn’t) or will happen (TBD), there are certainly other looming problems that warrant discussion. And for that discussion, you will want to jump in to this week’s Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44urVw5
Nasdaq futures were up over 1% this morning with technology exuberance following NVidia’s big earnings beat last night (the stock itself was up 10% pre market). So why did the stock end up closing just flat? Valuations do matter. We talk about it often but excitement over AI or other shiny object parts of the market get priced in with lofty expectations almost always well ahead of any reasonable realities (aka buy the rumor sell the news).
Down day in markets overall in a wide trading range on they day. The Dow was up over 220 points and closed down -373 points. The Nasdaq was up over 1% this morning and closed down -1.87%, and yields were higher across the curve. The Fed economic policy forum started today in Jackson Hole WY, with comments out tomorrow. We had jobless claims come in better than expected, and headline durable goods orders miss, and our August doldrums in markets continued so a few things to walk through in todays video podcast link below.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44nfT7G
Markets caught a little relief today, and the biggest AI chipmaker seems to have hit it out of the park after hours (we’ll see what holds tomorrow). Bonds rallied substantially, and so as bond yields fell, equities rose …
There has been chatter about rising credit card delinquencies. Let’s be clear – rising from 2% to 2.6% is an increase, but this is an increase to the average of the last ten years, which is exactly 2.6% since 2011. And for the twenty years prior to that, the average delinquency rate for credit cards was 4.4%. There is nothing, yet, that is concerning or prophetic in the credit card delinquency data. Not yet.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45fwZGb
This was the fifth day out of six that the Dow was down.
China is defending its weakening Yuan currency by making it more expensive to bet against it (raising the funding costs makes it more expensive to short). They face a pickle of wanting looser monetary policy to support their weaker economy but wanting a stronger Yuan as their currency has depreciated in recent months.
The UPS workers finalized their $30 billion pay raise.
How distorted are things in the market right now? The Nasdaq was UP +1.6% yesterday, yet 67% of the stocks in the index were negative.
The 2/10 curve is now only 69 basis points inverted (it had been well over 100bps at the peak).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45fwZGb
This was the fifth day out of six that the Dow was down.
China is defending its weakening Yuan currency by making it more expensive to bet against it (raising the funding costs makes it more expensive to short). They face a pickle of wanting looser monetary policy to support their weaker economy but wanting a stronger Yuan as their currency has depreciated in recent months.
The UPS workers finalized their $30 billion pay raise.
How distorted are things in the market right now? The Nasdaq was UP +1.6% yesterday, yet 67% of the stocks in the index were negative.
The 2/10 curve is now only 69 basis points inverted (it had been well over 100bps at the peak).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44nVfEQ
A Monday DC Today, the way it is supposed to be today.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44fYpKv
I am not sure it has gotten nearly the press it deserves, but the one economic story that has managed to get the financial press to talk about something besides the Fed’s rate plans and “will we or won’t we” talk regarding U.S. recession has been the state of China’s economy. Don’t get me wrong – it has hardly been barn-burning stuff, and press coverage has been limited to more substantive financial media (as opposed to the news that everyone watches, reads, and clicks). But there is increasing conversation about the state of China’s economy and what that means to the rest of the world.
If the coverage was merely, “China’s economy is not good,” it would be a pretty boring story. One of the reasons the story has a little interest to people is that after two years of hearing nothing but the “inflation” word when discussing places like the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, the Chinese economic conversation is carrying with it the word “deflation” – and that seems to have people’s ears perked up (even those who have no idea what it really means).
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we are going to take a look at the state of affairs in China and offer a little forecast as to where they may be headed. More important than current conditions, as I see it, is what they plan to do about it all. I will propose in the Dividend Cafe that China’s response will be every bit as relevant to the United States (and the rest of the globe) as it will be to China.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, and let’s see if “Chinafication” is about to be a buzz word for the rest of the world.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3E5y8nq
10-year yields rose to 4.29% today on the way towards the October highs of last year at 4.34%, and the yield curve steepened with 2/10’s now at 65 bps. Today we saw jobless claims come in slightly better than expected and an upside surprise in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey data, both supporting higher growth expectations which is what moved rates on the long end for the day. Even though stocks and bonds sold off today, I am sticking with good economic news and still being good myself.
For all the back and forth on where rates will go, what the Fed will do, and will those things need to get restrictive enough to break something in the economy, so far, it has yet to materialize meaningfully. Keep in mind also that 10 YR rates floating around the mid 4’s, are hardly anything new. The 1960s, 1990s and 2000s all averaged as much, with plenty of positive real growth in GDP. The difference now is we have a vastly expanded global indebtedness paradigm, so the sustainability of how long growth can last along with higher rates comes more into question, and I suspect both will come in as time goes on.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EicX1X
Following yesterday’s dismal economic data out in China and the largest rate cut there in 3 years (mind you, we are only talking about 15 bps), there was some add-on stress revealed in the real estate and financial markets today. One of China’s larger wealth management and shadow banking firms, with over $138B in assets, missed some repayments on some of its investments and is under review.
It is too early to tell if more financial contagion will occur definitively, and of course, you have a government there that can act if needed, but having managed client capital through the GFC in the US myself, a declining real estate market followed by several cracks like this in the financial system are eerily familiar warning signs and worth following. I do suspect the likely path is continued easing in monetary policy and, eventually, some form of stimulus to revive the Chinese economy, but since I know David will have more insight in this Friday’s Dividend Cafe on the subject, I will leave it there for now.
Interestingly in Asia, however, is Japan’s economic resurgence. Japan’s GDP last quarter was up a shocking 6% q/q on exports (recall how weak the Yen has been), which was the best organic reading since 2015. Going around the horn to the US, we had Fed minutes released from July’s meeting, leaving further potential rate increases on the table and some better-than-expected housing and industrial production numbers out. So what do you get with such a divergent economic paradigm amongst the first, second, and third largest economies of the world?
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44d1yL0
One of the things I used to get most frustrated by in the 2000-2007 period of artificially low interest rates, or 2010-2016, or 2020-2022, is how people assumed a central bank reducing rates was a good thing, when the only reason the Fed was doing it was because they believed things were bad. In other words, yes, a rate cut or low rates may (in many cases but not all) boost asset prices, but if the rate cut is coming because of fears of economic weakness (or actual economic weakness) there is ample reason to believe the celebration should be delayed. Now, I believe the Fed has rates way too tight right now and I further believe it is for all the wrong reasons. Yet if the Fed were cutting, not because they realize they over-did it, but rather because we were seeing screaming, severe recessionary conditions, does anyone believe that would be a positive thing?
The People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut rates last night because things there are terrible. The Shanghai Composite Index was down -0.49% and the CSI 300 was down -0.31%. U.S. futures dropped -250 points and as I type the market is down -300 points (the final closing numbers are below). The reason risk assets responded negatively to what people intuitively (and naively) think is a good thing (i.e. unexpected rate cuts)? Because the rate cuts are due to things being, ummmm, bad. China’s situation now is case in point. This was the PBOC’s second rate cut this summer. Consumer spending, industrial production, and business investment were all less than expected. And everything happening there is teeing up this Friday’s Dividend Cafe on what I see as pending Chinafication – not the economic softening itself, but the response to the softening and what that creates.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post -
Economic Front
Producer Prices were up +0.8% year-over-year in July (yes, less than 1%). Prices for intermediate processed goods are down -7.8% versus a year ago.
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 71.2 on the month, down a whisker from last month’s 71.6 but up a good deal from the June print of 64.4
I did get a fair amount of inquiry about the news that total U.S. Credit card debt had exceeded $1 trillion last week. That the total number goes up and down year by year is actually the new news, since from 1958 to 1990 it only went up every single year without exception. But people do not realize – throughout the pandemic $150 billion was paid off the balances of U.S. credit card holders (I am sure some of this was use of stimulus money, and some was re-financing mortgage debt at historically low rates). Income and assets have grown more than credit card debt for those who hold the bulk of U.S. credit card debt. And most importantly, debt service payments as a percentage of household income sits below 10% right now. it had been over 13% prior to the financial crisis.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DPZwWA
Four weeks ago, I devoted a Dividend Cafe to the subject of a “dividend growth mentality.” It was intended to, amongst other things, reiterate much of the underlying value proposition for investors in buying companies that return capital to shareholders via dividends and who increase those dividend payments year-over-year. The people who read Dividend Cafe are mostly investors, and all clients of our firm are investors. My interest in dividend growth is investor-centric – that is, how dividend growth accrues to the benefit of our clients.
And yet, as became clear to me from a couple of letter-writers in the aftermath of that Dividend Cafe, there is a sense which it begs the question to ask why it is good for investors to receive dividends. Don’t we first need to understand why companies, themselves, pay dividends? Would the benefit to us as investors matter if there were no benefits to the companies? Or is this whole thinking sort of confused?
Well, one thing I can promise you – you won’t be confused on any of this after you jump into this week’s Dividend Cafe, where we will seek to unpack this whole subject of companies paying dividends – why they do it, should they do it, and what does it all mean (economically and even philosophically).
Let’s be honest, and this is about as fun as it gets. So join me in the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/454dv7h
A tad to my surprise CPI came in even lower than expected (+3.2% vs. consensus estimates of +3.3%). The core rate was +4.7% as anticipated. On the month, prices ex-food, ex-energy and ex-the B.S. shelter figure were down -0.1%. Within that +3.2% the shelter component was up +7.8%, as the model shows OER (owner’s equivalent rent) up +7.7% on the year and Rentals of primary residence up +8%. Uh huh.
Core goods prices are up +0.8% on the year. +0.8%. The annualized total CPI from the last three months even with the bad shelter data is +1.9%.
Shelter is overstating headline inflation by 30% and core inflation by 40% (and I actually think it is mor than that). Month-to-month data is moved by base effects of the year prior and energy prices. As for energy prices, it looks like much of the oil and gas surge was late July and not as captured in this month’s data as I would have expected.
Two years ago this exact week the S&P was at 4,450 or so. Fast forward to today, the S&P is at 4,450 or so. But the 10-year yield was 1.32% and is now 4.02%. Would anyone guess that a near tripling of the bond yield would leave the market flat? Now, the Nasdaq is down -8.3% over the last two years, but still, you get the idea. Sometimes facts make no sense unless you have the gift of hindsight. Be careful about applying an investment conclusion to your forward-looking premises. As I always say, it will be hard enough for your premises to come true. It will be even harder for the conclusions that come from your premises to prove accurate.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3YukmEv
I think the biggest news of the day was China’s -0.3% consumer price index for the month of July, and it’s -4.4% producer price index. This was the tenth month in a row of wholesale price deflation, but it was the first month in over two years of consumer price deflation. I am dedicating next week’s Dividend Cafe to the subject of Chinafication.
In keeping with the message of the last two Dividend Cafes, our “credit watch” has a couple interesting things to note. Earnings were covering interest expense on investment grade loans 9.2x over right before the Fed began hiking rates. They are now covering them 8.2x. This is called the Interest Coverage Ratio and a high one is good (more coverage of the interest expense by the earnings of the company). Now, that number will get all the way down to 6x in recessions (2020, 2008, 2002), so this move down is not dramatic, but it is a deterioration that is worth watching. With High Yield it has moved from about 5x to just over 4x. Across the levered loan world total leverage is up a tad (debt divided by earnings), and coverage of the interest expense by either earnings or free cash flow is down a bit. None of these metrics yet indicate anything broken, yet all of them are modestly worse off than they were 12-18 months ago.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OoSkpj
From what I had initially thought would be a relatively quiet day in markets given the economic calendar, we ended up with a good amount of news to chew through in choppy markets with stocks selling off, a bid in bonds and volatility continuing its week-long climb. China reported softer than expected trade activity in exports and imports, reflecting its continued anemic recovery post-pandemic and further softness in its attempt to shift more towards a consumption-based economy.
Following Fitch's downgrade on US debt last week, Moody's joined the downgrade party lowering the credit rating on ten small and mid-sized US banks today, issuing a negative outlook on over a dozen larger banks. Higher rates, an inverted yield curve, and concern in commercial real estate, not to mention the stress earlier in the year with SVB/FRB, all seem well-known at this point, so this felt a bit behind the curve. Stocks traded lower on the news down over 450 points by mid morning before regaining through the rest of the day closing down only modestly. All fully unpacked in the podcast video link below.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Yoorda
Greetings from New York City (again). Lots of fun stuff today in my favorite DC Today of the week – the Monday edition (I love Mondays for so many reasons).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rVTWPV
I hope that you found last week’s Dividend Cafe on Credit to be informative and interesting. It’s summertime, and some people are more focused on the beach and the sun than syndicated loans, but not me. The cool factor has never quite been something people associated with me, and if I have to enter the month of August with a double issue of Dividend Cafe on Credit markets, I am going to do it.
But it isn’t just for the least cool of us like me – as I mentioned last week, Credit is a sine qua non in our economy. It is not an end for economic activity, but it is a vital part of the means. Oil and gasoline are not the points of driving, but good luck driving without them (okay, fine, or without electricity – the point is the same). The point of last week’s Dividend Cafe was that Credit is both a signifier or messenger about economic reality and, at the same time, a catalyst or influencer on economic activity.
I wrote last week’s Dividend Cafe in sub-optimal conditions (I will leave it there) and knew as I was wrapping it up that there was more to say, so I committed to a second part. So consider today some “extra credit” (see what I did there) – and jump on into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QoFycQ
Saudi put a further stake in the ground on extending production cuts, and oil jumped over +2.5% as a result (nearing $82 WTI). Again, they cite the silliness of SPR not making any moves to refill (something I spoke about on CNBC last night).
Other than 2008 when the world was ending, 2022 and 2023 have seen the highest bond volatility since the 1980’s. This year has actually seen more days of > 10bp moves in two-year treasury yields than even last year did!
The higher yield levels in the long end of the curve are the story of the week in financial markets, for sure, though. The 10-year is not back to the 4.35% high it saw last year but it is comfortably over 4% again.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DGpZpC
Fitch (the least known of the three major credit rating agencies) downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+, citing growing fiscal deterioration and overall debt burden. Now, you might be thinking, “oh no this sounds really bad,” and certainly anyone who doesn’t think the debt burden in the U.S. is really bad has, shall we say, not let the medication wear off … But on the other hand, not referring to the debt itself – just referring to Fitch saying all this, you also might be thinking, “ummmm, did you guys just return to the office yesterday?” All headlines and Johnny-come-latelies aside, treasury yields laughed off this announcement today. We should note, S&P moved the rating to AA+ twelve years ago.
If one were looking to understand financial market responses to U.S. sovereign debt reality, they would be more focused on the ramifications for liquidity in the financial system (Fed actions with easing and tightening and levels of reserves in the banking system) than the ability to repay debt. The latter is simply not a concern. The former is a volatile, uncertain, and unstable tale that ebbs and flows and impacts all sorts of risk assets.
The ADP jobs number once again blew out, this time at 324k private sector jobs created in July (versus 190k expected). We shall see what BLS says on Friday.
More than 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 (small cap index) have NEGATIVE earnings. Small cap benefits from active management.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3q8RMfd
August is off and running! The Dow was up +3.4% in July, nearly half of its total gain in 2023 coming in the month. Both the Nasdaq and S&P were up over +3% as well.
Bonds sold off today as yields rallied, and with a weak manufacturing number today, the only reason I can see bond yields climbing today is some expectation (for right or for wrong) that the jobs data will be strong this week.
Copper moving higher is not a sign of pending economic weakness, theoretically.
Congrats to the U.S. women’s soccer team on their 0-0 tie with Portugal, which enabled them to advance in the World Cup. Yep.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rQeA3P
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QipwRU Everyone loves to talk about the stock market. When it is doing well, people assume everything is great (wrongly). When it is doing poorly, people assume everything is terrible (wrongly). Presidencies can rise or fall based on the Dow or the S&P 500. The stock market is at least familiar to most people, even if they don’t own stocks. It has cultural familiarity on top of investment democratization.The same is not always true of the bond market, which is interesting since the bond market is so much larger and more important than the stock market. Interest rates, liquidity, mortgages, the currency of a country, and the monies that fund wars, governments, tunnels, schools, and bridges are all a by-product of the bond market. However, the overall world of “borrowing” (debt to one party, credit to another) covers more than just bonds. The “credit” markets delve into the borrowings that exist to make possible homebuilding, homebuying, home re-financing, commercial real estate, small business loans, big business loans, and so much else. Securitizing the debt around car loans, credit card loans, and even aircraft and yacht loans is big business. Credit is not just a “boring” bond market – it is what makes the world turn into a highly robust and active economy. Capital is needed to fund capitalism, and that capital is, far more often than not, “credit” – not “equity” … Today in the Dividend Cafe, we look at the current state of credit markets and what they teach us about the current state of affairs. Few things are more clear throughout economic history than this: weakening credit markets reflect economic weakness, then create economic weakness. It is a vicious cycle as old as the wheel. And even the wheel probably had someone developing it on credit … Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4563eH1
As balanced as Jay Powell’s comments were yesterday in the presser following the latest and potentially last 25 bps rate hike of 2023, markets opened in rally mode taking comfort in his ‘data dependency’ rate path commitment over what could have been otherwise hawkish comments. We then got an entire slew of strong economic data around 830AM EST with durable goods orders, jobless claims, home sales, and most notably Q2 GDP coming in ahead of expectations that brought back the ole ‘good news is bad’ jitters into markets and we reversed course. Bonds sold off across the curve, but more longer than short and the yield curve steepened to -92 bps in 2/10’s. So, while stocks did put an end to a 13 day consecutive advance and the 10 YR is now flirting again with 4%, what we really saw was more support for the soft landing narrative and candidly, if this is what a recession looks like, I’ll take it. All discussed in more depth in the video podcast below, as well as a twofer in Ask David today as an added bonus. Enjoy and reach out with questions.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rRaJTS
The Dow was up for the 12th market day in a row, the longest streak since February of 2017 … (the ancient history of 6.5 years ago, back when I was much younger).
Hong Kong and China stocks rallied hard (+4%) as Chinese leadership pledged more “support” for their property sector. What could go wrong? Some “worry” China will “succeed” in fighting their disinflation this way, and that it will leave a global economy too hot and make things harder for central banks. Some people, though, are idiots.
WTI Crude oil broke through its 200-day moving average and is now a whisker from $80.
I will be paying more attention to the threat of labor union strikes in the coming days and weeks. One strike here and one strike there (particularly in something as niche as Hollywood writers) doesn’t grab me from a purely macroeconomic sense. But four new strikes and a couple big ones (like, you know, the UAW), and I do wonder what kind of impact it may have on select companies and sectors.
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3O7FRWJ
I am back in New York City after a few days working from my house in East Hampton and ready for a hot and humid week in the concrete jungle. Office needs and speaking engagements didn’t allow me too much time at our Hamptons home this summer but I do enjoy being here in the city even in my least favorite time of the year weather-wise (I will take the snow storm winters over the oppressive heat any day!). To see New York this crowded and normal after what I observed in the depths of COVID is a true blessing (I was here throughout summer of 2020 when it was a real ghost town). It will be a busy and lively week in our Manhattan office and I am excited.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NZaBt7
Bring up the issue of “off-shoring” American manufacturing and you will get a wide variety of responses, many of them highly emotional. Today’s vernacular talks about “onshoring” or “re-shoring” or “near-shoring” – various synonyms or adjacent concepts to the idea of reversing certain trends of globalization, primarily the ones dealing with American activities in manufacturing and the supply chain.
As is the case with almost every topic I could ever address these days, the subject is complex, requires nuance, and doesn’t come close to one of the two simplistic boxes we are supposed to fit all of our thinking and analysis into. My interest in this Dividend Cafe is less political and more economic. It is less about making a statement and more about doing some analysis. It is less about finding a campaign message and more about finding an investment thesis.
So to those ends, we work. Let’s talk about expectations for America’s supply chain management in the years ahead.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44yThlA
It’s hard for contrarians to like some of the sentiment out there, with “bulls” at their highest level since April of 2021 and bears at their lowest level since June of 2021. The greed/fear index is tilted way towards the “greed” side of things and while it feels good to some, we like it the other way.
Earnings season has started off well across the market, broadly speaking, but Tesla and Netflix were the first two mega-cap “name brand” companies to buck that trend this season, getting hit hard today (though still way, way up on the year).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4796XFZ
David Bahnsen is traveling today and I, Trevor Cummings, will be filling in to provide you with the daily happenings around markets on this beautiful summer day.
The market hit a 52-week high, the Dow is on its longest win streak (8 consecutive days) since September 2019, headlines were captivated by a slew of corporate earnings reports, we have new housing starts data, and of course the best part – Ask David. Please join us for all of this and much more.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DhRwgD
After crickets last night in futures, we opened up nicely on the day right out of the gate and continued to trade higher in both stocks and bonds throughout the entire session closing just off the highs. For all those waiting for the data or news indicating some recession shoe to drop we just aren’t seeing it and flows are quietly but steadily moving more towards risk assets with short positions covering. Its still early innings in earnings season with only about 9% of companies reporting so far, but with the majority of the largest banks out and beating expectations, a common theme: resiliency in the US consumer offsetting the negative affect of yield curve inversion on net interest margins. Also of note, high yield bond spreads are at the lowest level in over a year at 380 wide, a full 100bps lower than they were at the start of the last recession in comparison.
So there you have it, markets remain resilient, and are now up 27% from the October lows, and we continue to climb this wall of worry in another heavily doubted equity bull market. Check out the podcast video today for more color on my resiliency theme and more.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q15Bql
Economic Front
One of the economists I read every day who has been screaming non-stop for 18 months now that we are entering a recession sent a “reminder” email this morning that we are “still likely” to enter a recession. And maybe we are. First of all, broken clocks and all that stuff. But secondly, I think the question about if and when we enter a recession now misses the point. Short term, these people obviously don’t know. Additionally, no one knows what it would mean to markets if we did. No one. But longer term, we don’t need to know if there is a Q4 2023 or a Q1 2024 recession to know that we do face significant excessive indebtedness that matters for the next 10, 20, 30 years. I remain mystified by why these chicken littles can’t focus on a long term reality we do know versus a short term reality we do not.
Consumer confidence jumped to 72.6 from 64.4 last month in the latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey. This is the highest since September of 2021. Current conditions and expectations were both higher. Two quick caveats: (a) I have always found consumer confidence to be worthless; (2) Pre-COVID it was at 101, so putting the index in perspective, it is ahead of expectations, ahead of recent prints, and yet well below prior level.
China’s Q2 GDP growth missed expectations, coming in at +6.3% year-over-year but slowing to just 0.8% from Q1’s growth rate (which had been +2.2%(, which was a surprise. Retail sales are not huge, capex is muted (as their property sector stumbles), and youth unemployment is over 21%.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post -
I am writing this week’s Dividend Cafe from Reagan International Airport in Washington DC. I recorded the video and podcast from my hotel room last night. I am soon departing for Memphis, TN where I am speaking at a conference Friday and Saturday before returning to New York. I was in DC to speak to a very large group of college students at George Mason University on free market economics. I had taken the train in to DC yesterday from New York after my flight to DC on Wednesday got cancelled just minutes after speaking to a symposium in south Orange County on the ESG investing movement (you can guess what perspective I brought to the subject). I made it to that conference after having a flight from New York Monday sit on the tarmac for four hours waiting for fuel. So from New York to California back to New York to Washington DC to Memphis then back to New York again, all in six days. It’s been a week.
In the meantime, I scrapped plans for a Dividend Cafe on plans for the American supply chain and what those changes may mean for the American economy, and instead have elected to do a refresher on dividend growth. I plan to do a “dividend growth” focused Dividend Cafe once a quarter, and this seemed like a pretty good day to do it. Not to brag or anything, but I can write a Dividend Cafe about dividend growth quite intuitively (which I guess bragging about that would be like bragging about one’s speech and debate achievements in high school to the football team, which I will just anecdotally mention is not as cool a thing to do as it may sound).
Dividend growth is, after all, the very end to which we work.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ddn2fV
Earnings season is officially underway (companies like Delta and Pepsi released today, and a slew of big banks release tomorrow).
The annual inflation rate came in yesterday at the lowest level in more than two years.
The dollar is at its lowest level (against a global basket of different currencies since April of last year.
Senator Warren is officially now yelling for Chairman Powell and the Fed to stop hiking interest rates (I have been waiting for a populist backlash; I just didn’t know if it would be from the right or the left first; now we know).
China exports fell -12.4% last month (year-over-year), with 11 months in a row of declining exports to the U.S. Hmmmmm …
Jobless claims came in at 237,000, heading south from the averages north of 250k we had been seeing!
Producer Prices are up +0.1% year-over-year. +0.1%. Zero percent inflation in wholesale prices. Now, let’s be real honest about something here. This is mostly a story of what we call “trading base effects.” Last year at this time, the YOY PPI was +11%, so that number was so silly that a year later, being up +0% is less profound than it may seem. But of course, the same was true before (only on the other side of the math), where a high YOY number was a by-product of the prior year’s price collapse. And we are supposed to do calculations off of these distortions?
But there is genuine price deflation in the producer prices (year-over-year) of processed and unprocessed core goods. Commodity prices are down. Supply chains have normalized. Wholesale prices have moderated entirely and are very likely heading lower based on manufacturing data. TIP spreads are showing implied inflation expectations of 1.95% for the next two years. Over five years, 2.19%.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Although closing off the highs, stocks and bonds rallied today on cooler-than-expected CPI data, with the headline now at 3.0% year over year. With a 90% chance in fed funds futures still pointing to a 25bps rate increase in two weeks, it was as interesting to see the expectations for a rate cut pull forward from May of next year to March.
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43hXzMY
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46Mbde0
Markets today rallied even with all eyes on tomorrow’s CPI number. Three Fed governors have doubled down on the need for more rate hikes in the last 24 hours.
China is releasing a wide array of policy support measures to support its floundering property market and construction industry.
Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway has taken a 75% interest in one of the country’s major LNG export facilities (liquefied natural gas). For those keeping track, we only have seven operational facilities in the country that can currently export LNG.
There is a longer-than-normal answer in Ask David today because the question was a very thoughtful one. Check it out below!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NJ2dO3
I hope you all had a wonderful Fourth of July holiday. I love Independence Day, and I love celebrating America’s independence. I love the Declaration of Independence (and I should add, it has quite a bit of economic messaging in it). And of course, having the time to celebrate summer, family, friends, and all the traditions and customs that go with the Fourth of July is time well-spent.
I devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to your questions for us – the top inquiries, questions, and inquiries that have hit our inbox over the last week or so. The topics cover the whole gamut this week and I think you will find it fruitful and edifying.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, and let’s answer your questions!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NJs88A
One of my least favorite things I see analysts do on Wall Street is take various historical incidents and attempt to extract likely future market behavior from it. “7 out of the last 9 times a team from California won the World Series, the market was up over the next 120 days” (or something like that – I made that one up to make a point; actually, that example there would be significantly more logical than some of the nonsense I routinely see).
This morning I read a report that said “nine of the last nine times the real Fed Funds rate was rising, the S&P 500 was up.” Okay, fair enough. Not super helpful predictively, though, since one only knows what the period of time the real Fed Funds rate is rising in hindsight (from a start to an end), and periods within it can be quite negative (see: 2022). But then this report went on to say: “in the 12 months following a period of a rising fed funds rate the market was up double digits four of the nine times and down in the remaining five.”
Crystal clear. Now who won the World Series last year?
The ADP jobs number came out showing explosive June private sector job creation (+497k, double expectations). Leisure and Hospitality was nearly half of that, so it does seem a bit lumpy. Of course, we also know weekly initial jobless claims have been rising, so there is a bit of a mixed bag in the labor data with the skew still being to the positive side. We shall see what the BLS report generates for June tomorrow. Bond yields went up and stock futures went down after the ADP report.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post -https://bahnsen.co/3ricXf2
I am hopeful all had a wonderful Independence Day spent with family and friends in celebration of the 247th year of the greatest country to ever inhabit the Earth. The biggest news on the day was the Fed minutes that were released, indicating the rationale behind their decision to pause and hold rates steady last meeting while leaving the door open to raising again in the near future. While the decision was unanimous, the discussion revealed a debate by some on moving rates up 25 bps last week. The next FOMC meeting is out on 7/25 and 7/26, and while we do get some employment data this week, I think it will be less relevant than the consumer price data we will get a week from today that will ultimately drive their next decision on rates. It does appear the Fed is erring on the risk of recession over the risk of having to repeat the 1970s style stop and go on Fed policy. All said, it was a low-volume trading day following the holiday and the first full trading day in the second half of the year that was modestly negative in stock and bond prices throughout. All discussed and more in today's video podcast link below.
Brian Szytel
Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/07/05/ups-teamsters-negotiations-end-as-strike-looms/70382580007/
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JFT7AK
By the time you are reading this, the first half of 2023 will be complete. I can't put exact market figures here because I am writing this middle of the market day, Thursday the 29th, so the precise finality is a day and a half away. But the general themes that made the first half of 2023 what it was are quite clear, and I think you will find this "2023 halftime report" Dividend Cafe to be quite provocative. And what else do you hope you find in the Dividend Cafe if not "provocative" ...
So let's jump into the Dividend Cafe and see what 2023 has delivered thus far and what might be on the horizon for the second half!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3prCOAq
An upward revision in Q1 GDP fueled by stronger consumer spending and exports, jobless claims figures that came in better than expected, and a passing grade for all US banks in Fed stress test results were what fueled today’s market rally and run-up in short-term rates.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3XrRlJ6
At the ECB Forum in Sintra Portugal – Powell, Lagarde, and Baily all had hawkish comments on inflation and tighter central bank policy needed to contain it. However, all three felt that could be done without inevitably causing a recession.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3pr9HgK
So another day gone by and I don’t think the world knows much more than it has 24 hours ago about Putin and the weekend coup threat.
Natural gas prices have jumped from $2 to $2.80 BTU in just 15 days or so (+40%) and not surprisingly energy stocks with a natural gas focus have done much better than those exclusively focused on crude oil. One of the energy bear arguments seems to have really dissipated, and that was the idea that exposure to higher rates would be catastrophic for the highly levered energy sector (in 2020 it was often said that the debt cliffs these companies have would usher in a wave of bankruptcies). A new survey from the Dallas Fed of 150 oil and gas companies indicated that less than 20% see tighter credit conditions having a significant impact on their business.
New home sales were up +12.2% in May (volume) with supply down to 6.7 months (had been 7.6 months). My study is starting to indicate a worthlessness to national supply data when some markets are so substantially under-supplied and some suffering from big over-supply (making the aggregate number like the guy whose “average temperature” is found with one arm in the freezer and one in the oven). But what I would point out is that median sales prices have dropped -16.2% (for new homes) since their peak, right in the middle spot of that 10-20% drop I predicted (though this is just new homes, not existing, yet).
Seattle and San Francisco, by the way, have seen double-digit median price drops of existing homes. Hmmmmm
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NMJ3bk
Top News Stories
Friday night the absolutely fascinating news hit that a coup d’etat was underway in Russia, or at least an attempted one, with mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leading troops out of Ukraine and into a city south of Moscow with significant military headquarters for Russia. Putin, of course, called the act a treasonous betrayal and vowed revenge. As the day went on Saturday it was announced that a truce had been reached and Prigozhin had called off the march on Moscow, and would be allowed to peacefully enter Belarus. But then over the next 24 hours more and more news and analysis came that seemed to indicate that, ummmm, maybe that wasn’t going to prove an entirely safe exit plan for Prigozhin.
The entire question comes down to whether or not this indicates the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war, and it is too early to tell. If nothing else, it still indicates a vulnerability for Putin, especially if reports are true that other Russian generals and oligarchs were actually favorable (quietly or out loud) to what Prigozhin was doing. I wouldn’t read too much into kneejerk responses from anyone, but it all does seem reasonable enough to say that (a) Putin’s position seems weaker than at any time since he took power, and (b) An internal Russian move may be a more likely end to Putin and the aggression against Ukraine than anything else we have seen so far.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post -
I gave a speech this week at a large economic symposium where I am blessed to lecture every summer. My talk tackled many of the themes I write about all the time in the Dividend Cafe – the impact of excessive indebtedness on macroeconomic conditions, the comparison of pre-GFC Japan with post-GFC America, the diminishing return of fiscal and monetary policy to impact the business cycle, etc.
This week’s Dividend Cafe takes all these themes and lessons of so many Dividend Cafe bulletins and puts them together the way I presented them at my speech this week.
And most of all, I have tried to incorporate some suggestions of what could change it all – not what will change it all, but what could.
So jump on into the Dividend Cafe. From Grand Rapids, Michigan, to the Big Apple, Japanification is real. And the impact of debt on growth is the most misunderstood or ignored economic
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NqpaFA
The Bank of England surprised markets by hiking rates a half point this morning (a quarter point had been expected).
Chairman Powell did his very best in front of the House yesterday to basically swear they have more rate hikes left in them (all the while swearing they are data dependent, with the apparent contradiction between promising something six weeks in advance of the data coming in that you are promising to be led by never really being explained).
But then … Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, came out and said he believes the Fed should hold rates where they are now for the rest of the year …
So if you don’t know what the Fed will do next, join the club. The futures market is up to a 77% implied probability that the Fed will hike at the late July meeting. I remain skeptical but not adamant. And the Fed remains content with ambiguity and public mixed messaging, with “trial ballooning” apparently a new policy tool in the toolbox.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JpMzpy
Brian Szytel here with you today, kicking off the first day of Summer with just what I know you all used to look forward to as kids – discussion on the days market action, Fed comments, and inflation. Not to worry, I won’t let you hit your Summer vacations uniformed with all thoroughly discussed in today’s podcast and video.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JpIamG
Greetings from Grand Rapids, Michigan where I spoke at a large economics symposium today, and where I will be for the next couple of days before returning to NYC on Friday. As is my intention on most weeks with a Monday market holiday, this Tuesday DC Today is basically being done with the old school “Monday style.”
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4301I8h
We have had a lot to say about housing here in the Dividend Cafe over the years, most recently here with a broad update of projections for supply, demand, and pricing, and more philosophically, last year’s bulletin here that aimed to provide a bigger picture perspective on how to think about it all. I was and am proud of both issues of the Dividend Cafe and the message embedded therein. Housing is a big part of the U.S. economy, where we live is a big part of our lives, and what it costs us is a big part of our monthly pocketbook.
Yet today’s Dividend Cafe is a little different. Not only am I not offering a forecast today as to whether or not median home prices will drop -9% from here or go up +5% or some other irrelevant nonsense, I also am not speaking to some macroeconomic ramifications of housing the way many pundits do (this many construction jobs will be added or lost, or this increase or decrease will take place in spending at the Home Depots and Lowes of our economy, blah blah blah). I do happen to think most of those discussion items are silly, misguided, and misunderstood, but that is not why I am ignoring them today. Besides them being bad questions, and impossible to answer, I also have a different focus that is more important to our lives and well-being.
Today I want to dig into the single biggest reality of housing that no one seems interested in talking about – and that is the cultural implications of how we have re-framed our view of residential real estate over the years. Some may prefer a discussion to the latest projections around the rocket science that is “home flipping,” but I believe our angle today is the lowest hanging fruit of how we ought to think about this subject. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42KWXyW
Markets rallied some more today as bond yields dropped further even though the curve inverted more (as long-dated yields dropped more than short-dated). The odds for a hike at the next meeting (which is six weeks away, I should point out) moved to 67% for a 25-basis point hike and 33% for no move again. Odds are evenly split that by the end of the year we will either be at the current level or lower, versus a further hike.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/467JeWa
Brian Szytel here with you on today’s highly anticipated Fed Day. After 10 back-to-back rate increases from the Fed over the past year and a half where they raised short-term rates from 0% to just over 5% the Fed today paused (not necessarily ended) their rate tightening campaign with a ‘wait and see’ message on how their policy changes which operate with a lag will further affect the economy before their next meeting in July. The hawkish language in the statement and in the press conference afterward however left the door wide open for further rate increases should the data warrant. Main takeaways here:
The median forecast for terminal Fed funds in the Fed dot plots was raised to 5.6% by the end of this year, 4.6% by the end of 2024, and 3.2% by the end of 2025. Only two committee members saw the current rate as appropriate, with all remaining 16 members supporting further 25 bps rate increases before the end of the year, nine of which saw two more 25 bps hikes. GDP estimate was revised UP to 1% from .4%. The unemployment estimate was revised DOWN to 4.1% from 4.5%.
At the end of the day, 1. actions speak louder than words and I think they want to be done and 2. the economic outlook on growth and employment was upgraded not downgraded. Markets had been slightly positive most of the trading day (other than the DOW that was dragged down by just one price-weighted stock), then initially sold off over 400 points following the statement with yields rising, only then to normalize into the close. Wash, rinse, and repeat on almost every Fed day. I unpack all the nuance and what to make of it all in markets in greater detail in the video podcast link below.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N5Vy0n
So the month of May CPI report came out this morning, and xxxxxxx
Those who continue to be “frustrated” by the reasonable resilience of the economy in the face of the Fed’s desire to break it are up against a few different things.
(1) The utter weirdness of believing an economy must be broken to beat inflation. It is not true, and it has never been true.
(2) The extent to which many corporate borrowers (both high yield and investment grade) extended the maturities of their borrowings during the COVID zero-interest rate period. This means companies are not impacted by higher rates where they don’t have loans resetting at higher rates. Of course, this is not true for all but it has been true for many.
(3) How incredibly unnecessary it is to use high rates to defeat inflation when monetary policy was not the primary cause of the inflation to begin with. The issues that primarily caused the inflation of 2021/22 were rectified in the natural course of events (supply chain, labor shortage, reopening, etc.) and no the cause and effect mechanisms are all off in the way the Fed is approaching this.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N1hlWQ
- Futures opened flat last night and stayed flat throughout the night up until my early morning wake-up. They inched higher in the hours before the opening.
- The market opened up over +100 points and stayed up through most of the day, closing near a high
- The Dow closed up +190 points (+0.56%) with the S&P 500 up +0.94% and the Nasdaq +1.53%.
- There are now less than 3,000 companies active and trading in U.S. public markets, versus almost 10,000 that are backed by private equity, and nearly 40,000 backed by venture capital. There are 32 million small/mid/family businesses. Naturally, the 3,000 public companies are what the media focuses on as a bellwether of the U.S. economy.
- A great call we made in 2020 was a huge boom of M&A that would come out of the low-rate and post-COVID moment. Low rates were an economic argument; the post-COVID observation was sociological (many deals got done or accelerated behind newfound catalysts). That pushed up the values of investment banks, private equity shops, private lenders, and others in the advice chain of this financial ecosystem. Massive M&A peaked 18 months ago, re-pricings have taken place, and in the ebb and flow of the M&A world we would not be surprised to see a new era of financial activity take place on the other side of this.
- The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.73%, down one basis point on the day
- Top-performing sector for the day: Technology (+2.07%)
- Bottom-performing sector for the day: Energy (-0.97%)
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/42yYfgC
This was a big week in the Bahnsen household, but really for many families all over the country. Joleen and I celebrated the graduation from high school of our firstborn son, Mitchell. Many of you likely had kids, grandkids, and loved ones celebrate some graduation as well (college or high school). They are all special and memorable, and if you suffer from the same chronic nostalgia syndrome that I do, maybe these events bring back memories of your own graduation. I believe some of the emotion this week was not just in seeing our own firstborn celebrate this milestone but also in the gratitude I have for the high school he attended, a passion project of mine for the last ten years. A lot more has gone into this week than meets the eye, and I feel truly blessed.
Today so many young people enter adulthood with a sense of pessimism, gloom, and uncertainty. There is often widespread financial ignorance as to “how to be,” and there is almost always an underlying negativity about the economic trajectory of our communities, or country, or even the world. The positive of high school graduation can be met with the daunting challenges of adult life in the category of finance, vocation, and economics.
I want to devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to that young man or woman leaving high school or college, ready to start adult life. I imagine there will be some takeaways that seem relevant to all readers. But my special focus is on those entering adult life looking for some broad, practical takeaways about finance and economics. Our entry into adulthood is hard enough as it is – there is no reason to make it harder with a stunted worldview on such an important part of human life.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3WZi5jG
It has not been a great week for global bonds with extra rate hikes as of late in Canada and Australia as of late and a re-pricing of Fed expectations here in the U.S. has kept bond yields on the short end of the curve higher, and even flattened the curve a tad with longer-dated yields coming up.
We are still sitting at just a 74% chance of a pause in Fed action next week (in the futures market), meaning there is a 26% chance of another quarter-point hike. But there is a 64% chance of a rate hike in July …
In the meantime, jobless claims flew up to 261,000 this week from just 233,000 last week, a large and unexpected move that we will need until next week to see if it is just noise this week or the start of something more substantial.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Joqzf1
Big rally in Energy and Real Estate today even as other markets stalled and reversed.
The media world went into a trance this morning before the market opened on the news that CNN’s CEO, Chris Licht, had been fired. Though not much of a market story, it distracted everyone for the day and allowed it to be a mostly boring day in the world of financial media.
As expected, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum (billionaire Governor of North Dakota) have all entered the Presidential race this week, vying for the Republican nomination. Add them to the list that includes Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis as top candidates and then Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, and you have basically 7-10 total candidates, two of which poll high, three of which poll a little, and the rest of which poll basically not at all. It’s going to be a wild summer. And I am sure at some point, I will have to talk about it more in terms of policy and market implications, but we are nowhere near that point yet. For now, my forecasts are rather simple: I am dubious that Joe Biden will end up being the Democrat nominee; I am highly dubious that former President Trump can win a general election; and I believe there is a candidate or two who could beat President Trump for the Republican nomination, but am as unsure as anyone else as to whether or not that will happen. There are so many wildcards out there right now; predictions are a fool’s errand.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3X7RBwR
A flattish day in markets but a big rally in Financials …
The SEC is suing Coinbase, the major publicly traded exchange for cryptocurrency, for violating securities laws and defying regulatory requirements. This company is down -80% in value from its high, and now there exists an investigation or active charges with every major crypto exchange firm.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Post -
The debt ceiling bill has gotten through the House Rules Committee and it appears nearly certain that the House will have the votes tonight for passage. What happened here proved to be even less dramatic than I predicted, and I was predicting that the media posture here was recklessly and shamefully melodramatic. I promise you this, though – no one will learn anything, and everyone will take the bait again next time, too.
Media reports that some hardliners on the right were going to look to oust Speaker McCarthy over this bill were, well, totally untrue.
One of the big themes in the market right now is the relative weakness of defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities. And for a contrarian like me, it makes me like them even more. The momentum is in one very narrow space right now. That boat has a capsize risk in front of it as 2023 progresses. In the meantime, 4% of the large cap universe is at a relative high right now, while 25% is at a relative low. Weird wacky stuff.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
An interesting but not especially noteworthy day in markets today, and we have all the commentary you need right here
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +3 points (+0.01%) S&P: -0.16% Nasdaq: -0.59% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.71%); Energy +1.28% Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $78.64/barrel (+1.81%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
The Case Shiller Housing Index dropped for the third month in a row, now down -13% since August. ASK DAVID “How fair is it to compare the relationship between FTX and Alameda Research to the relationship between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve? Alameda was using client money to buy up FTX’s token (FTT) in order to bolster the price of the FTT. How much different is that from the Fed using taxpayer money to buy US treasuries?”
~ Marty
There are a few pretty substantive differences worth noting. First, the Fed doesn’t actually use taxpayer money to buy treasuries, though it is taxpayer money that is being paid back to the Fed (that is what a Treasury bond is). But the main difference is that the Treasuries on the Fed’s balance sheet are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, and no principal or interest payment has been missed in nearly 250 years. Alameda was backed by FTT, which is worth less than a beanie baby.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market Action
Futures opened last night down -50 points or so and were down -160 points into the evening. This morning they were pointing to a down -200 point open pre-market. It is safe to say embedded in market action today is come “catch up” after last week where Wednesday is always a “low participation” day, Thursday saw markets closed for the holiday, and Friday is a token open day where markets close three hours early. The market opened down -50 points and just steadily worsened throughout the day. The Dow closed down -497 points (-1.45%) with the S&P 500 down -1.54% and the Nasdaq down -1.58%.
The market’s challenges today were clearly related to concerns about the supply chain and some contagion effect around the disruptions in China (see Top News Stories below) The ten-year bond yield closed today at 3.67%, down two basis points on the day Top-performing sector for the day: Consumer Staples (-0.31%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Real Estate (-2.80%) There is a lot to be said on the crypto/FTX implosion of the last couple weeks, and I believe even more will be said in the weeks ahead. BlockFi, another large crypto exchange, has now filed for bankruptcy as well
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today we are one day closer to cutting into that turkey, enjoying some homemade gravy, and spending some quality time with those nearest and dearest to us. A great time of the year to be grateful, and I, Trevor Cummings, am personally grateful to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving, and I encourage you to take a moment to watch or listen to what’s happening in markets today (links below).
And off we go…
Full Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3V7jsLO
Topics discussed: Dow: +397 (+1.18%) S&P: +1.36% Nasdaq: +1.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (-6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.18%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (+0.46%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.20/barrel (+1.15%)
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I actually hate the title this week, because the word “stupid” really is pretty mean. I try not to be mean because I think it is wrong to be mean (I can elaborate if needed). However, in this case, when James Carville famously said, “it’s the economy, stupid,” in the context of what voters cared about in the 1992 election, he basically created a new adage for how we say that a particular thing is really the thing.
And that is the topic of this week’s Dividend Cafe – the thing in dividend growth investing, and clarifying some important terminology and concepts around the thing. And as you shall see today, the thing is growth of income.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Another volatile day with the Dow closing flat after being down nearly -400 points. More to say here:
MARKET ACTION Dow: -7 points (-0.02%) – had been down over -300 points at the low and -400 pre-market S&P: -0.31% Nasdaq: -0.35% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (+0.21%) and Energy (+0.12%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.94/barrel (-4.26%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 222,000 – not a big move from the week before or variance from expectations Single-family starts in new housing construction dropped to 855,000, down -6% on the month and -35% from post-COVID highs
ASK DAVID “What do you think the impact would be on the stock and bond market if the Fed formally changed their inflation target from 2% to 3%? I assume it would be risk on for equities?”
~ Mike S.
Yes, it would be. But they won’t. And they don’t need to – they basically already did in 2020 with their adjustment to the 2% standard (that is, they no longer target 2%, but rather an “average” of 2%, meaning they can let things run hot in perpetuity to “blend” to 2% depending on how the math before or after works. In other words, they gave themselves “flexibility.”
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It was a very choppy (up-down) day in markets, to say the least. The chart itself is testimony to how much the market could not make its mind up today. A few nuggets to chew on here …
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -39 points (-0.12%) S&P: -0.83% Nasdaq: -1.54% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.69% (-11 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (+0.87%) – only other sector up was Consumer Staples Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.15%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.32/barrel (-0.32%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
Core retail sales were up +6.5% year-over-year in October and up 0.7% on the month (double what was expected). Industrial Production declined -0.1% in October, with mining and utilities output leading the way lower
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION Dow: Up +56 points (+0.17%) S&P: +0.87% Nasdaq: 1.45% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (- 10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+1.78%) Bottom-performing sector: Materials (-0.11%) WTI Crude Oil: $86.86/barrel (+1.15%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
The Producer Price Index only rose +0.2% in October, half of the +0.4% monthly increase that had been anticipated. And much of that lower figure came from a decline of -0.1% in services, the first decline in wholesale services costs in two years
ASK DAVID** “Is purchasing gold and/or silver a good investment?”
~ Cindy W.
My view has been for quite some time that it is a non-productive investment. What I mean by then is that it does not generate any cash flow and does not have any internal earnings stream, so the value becomes a matter of speculation or supply/demand around use. But gold is not really owned much for industrial use, and even its cosmetic use is somewhat limited, so those who own gold or silver for investment purposes must defend the notion of gold being a sort of inflation hedge or currency proxy. And maybe it will be that someday, but that day is not the last 42 years, where gold is down by -50% relative to inflation – a stunning and shocking fact to all who hear it. I will also point out that the most common thing I have been told over the years is that gold gives us a hedge or substitute against crazy unstable monetary policy. Well, trillions of printed QE dollars since 2012 later, gold is lower than it was a decade ago. This should have been the golden age for gold; instead, it has many wondering what exactly the thesis is.
At the end of the day, gold can go up a lot, and it can go down a lot, but it rarely does what people seem to want it to do when they want it to do it.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today’s DC Today is monstrous and requires you to listen to the whole thing. Election aftermath. Fed expectations. Inflation changes. Huge rally days. So much updating.
TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Greetings from Nashville, Tennessee, where I will be necessarily giving you a shorter Dividend Cafe today, but one you may find quite interesting nonetheless.
I am sure some of you would prefer we just stay out here in Nashville. But alas, we live in crazy times.
And speaking of crazy, I want to talk today through a few charts, quickly, that cover the subject of energy investing and technology investing. The angle is a bit different than many choose to take.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +334 points (+1.02%) S&P: +0.56% Nasdaq: +0.49% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.13% (-8.4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Materials (+1.68%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-0.30%) – only negative sector WTI Crude Oil: $88.55/barrel (-3.53%)
Key Economic Point of the Day: The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from 92.1 to 91.3
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market Action
Futures opened down nearly -200 points last night but got back nearly to the flat line by bedtime as Japan and Hong Kong markets were rallying. Then this morning, futures pointed to a +170-point open pre-market. The market opened +80 points and went steadily higher throughout the day. The Dow closed up +424 points (+1.31%), with the S&P 500 up +0.96% and the Nasdaq up +0.85%.
It would be malpractice not to start with this chart. One thing I have said over and over is that I believe equity volatility does not stabilize until the ascendant dollar reverses. Friday’s drop in the DXY was the worst day for the dollar since 2015 and the second worst day since the financial crisis (h/t Jim Bianco). Now, the dollar was still UP on the week – we are hardly in a trend of dollar reversal. Volatility is still the story, not a weakening dollar. For now.
We are up to 85% of companies reported for the quarter now (Q3 results), and revenue growth looks to be +11% year-over-year with earnings growth of +4.3%. And the earnings outlook for 2023 has only come down from $252/share for the S&P 500 to $233, meaning either this will end up being a very, very mild recession, or else there is more room to go for downward revisions of 2023 profits. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.22%, up six basis points on the day Top-performing sector for the day: Communication Services (+1.83%) and Energy (+1.73%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Utilities (-1.94%) I am not sure that the ESG movement is proving to be much about ideology. It is apparently a lot more about performance, after all. As ESG-popular FAANG stocks have gotten hammered and ESG-hated energy stocks have thrived, new money into ESG products has evaporated.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market Action
Futures opened down nearly -200 points last night but got back nearly to the flat line by bedtime as Japan and Hong Kong markets were rallying. Then this morning, futures pointed to a +170-point open pre-market. The market opened +80 points and went steadily higher throughout the day. The Dow closed up +424 points (+1.31%), with the S&P 500 up +0.96% and the Nasdaq up +0.85%.
It would be malpractice not to start with this chart. One thing I have said over and over is that I believe equity volatility does not stabilize until the ascendant dollar reverses. Friday’s drop in the DXY was the worst day for the dollar since 2015 and the second worst day since the financial crisis (h/t Jim Bianco). Now, the dollar was still UP on the week – we are hardly in a trend of dollar reversal. Volatility is still the story, not a weakening dollar. For now.
We are up to 85% of companies reported for the quarter now (Q3 results), and revenue growth looks to be +11% year-over-year with earnings growth of +4.3%. And the earnings outlook for 2023 has only come down from $252/share for the S&P 500 to $233, meaning either this will end up being a very, very mild recession, or else there is more room to go for downward revisions of 2023 profits. The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.22%, up six basis points on the day Top-performing sector for the day: Communication Services (+1.83%) and Energy (+1.73%) Bottom-performing sector for the day: Utilities (-1.94%) I am not sure that the ESG movement is proving to be much about ideology. It is apparently a lot more about performance, after all. As ESG-popular FAANG stocks have gotten hammered and ESG-hated energy stocks have thrived, new money into ESG products has evaporated.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I appreciated the very kind words I received about last week’s lengthy Dividend Café, and hope the message coming out of that annual week of meetings was clear and useful for readers. I struggled with where to take Dividend Café this week as last week’s covered so many topics, the Fed’s announcement this week was no real surprise at all, and I desire to write less about the Fed in the Dividend Café. On that last part, it isn’t going to happen – and that’s not merely because of my not-so-secret obsession with monetary economics. I may believe (and I assure you, I do) that the Fed policy framework of this era has given a way higher role to the Fed in modern economics than is appropriate, but believing it shouldn’t be is different than believing it isn’t such. So yes, the Fed is going to be a heavy theme in Dividend Café for years to come (whether I like it or not).
But if there is one thing I am obsessed about more than monetary economics, it is dividend-growth investing. And I think you will find some observations about dividend equity investing to be very relevant to the paradigm in which we find ourselves.
So today is not quite Fed-free, but it is rich in dividends, the very rewards I want for investing clients. Let’s jump into the Dividend Café …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I appreciated the very kind words I received about last week’s lengthy Dividend Café, and hope the message coming out of that annual week of meetings was clear and useful for readers. I struggled with where to take Dividend Café this week as last week’s covered so many topics, the Fed’s announcement this week was no real surprise at all, and I desire to write less about the Fed in the Dividend Café. On that last part, it isn’t going to happen – and that’s not merely because of my not-so-secret obsession with monetary economics. I may believe (and I assure you, I do) that the Fed policy framework of this era has given a way higher role to the Fed in modern economics than is appropriate, but believing it shouldn’t be is different than believing it isn’t such. So yes, the Fed is going to be a heavy theme in Dividend Café for years to come (whether I like it or not).
But if there is one thing I am obsessed about more than monetary economics, it is dividend-growth investing. And I think you will find some observations about dividend equity investing to be very relevant to the paradigm in which we find ourselves.
So today is not quite Fed-free, but it is rich in dividends, the very rewards I want for investing clients. Let’s jump into the Dividend Café …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -146 points (-0.46%) S&P: -1.06% Nasdaq: -1.73% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83% WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most since March) ISM Services came in at 54.4 – still expansionary but a point lower than expected, and with New Orders dropping 4 points ASK DAVID “I enjoy listening to your podcasts – thank you for the insights!
I am sitting on cash – about 75% of my investable assets. What would be a good philosophy of when to get back into the market and how? I am a believer in dividend based investing.”
~ Adrian
One first has to start with the basic principles – not getting invested in a dividend equity portfolio with cash is a riskier than getting invested in one. The reason not to invest immediately is either (a) A belief about market timing that is not grounded in reality, or (b) A desire to not invest all at once at an inopportune time (that being revealed to you in hindsight, not in advance). I reject reason A and am sympathetic to reason B, as long as one does the needed self-assessment to see that reason B is psychological and emotional, not financial or rational. So then if the desire to mitigate timing risk is psychologically helpful, I advise deploying no less than 50% at once, and then the rest either over a period of time periodically (say, 1/10th of the remainder each month for ten months), or tactically (each “bad” down day in markets deploying more).
I have no statistical or empirical argument for one over the other as it pertains to how to deploy the second 50%, but feel strongly about getting 50% of uninvested cash at once.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -146 points (-0.46%) S&P: -1.06% Nasdaq: -1.73% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83% WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most since March) ISM Services came in at 54.4 – still expansionary but a point lower than expected, and with New Orders dropping 4 points ASK DAVID “I enjoy listening to your podcasts – thank you for the insights!
I am sitting on cash – about 75% of my investable assets. What would be a good philosophy of when to get back into the market and how? I am a believer in dividend based investing.”
~ Adrian
One first has to start with the basic principles – not getting invested in a dividend equity portfolio with cash is a riskier than getting invested in one. The reason not to invest immediately is either (a) A belief about market timing that is not grounded in reality, or (b) A desire to not invest all at once at an inopportune time (that being revealed to you in hindsight, not in advance). I reject reason A and am sympathetic to reason B, as long as one does the needed self-assessment to see that reason B is psychological and emotional, not financial or rational. So then if the desire to mitigate timing risk is psychologically helpful, I advise deploying no less than 50% at once, and then the rest either over a period of time periodically (say, 1/10th of the remainder each month for ten months), or tactically (each “bad” down day in markets deploying more).
I have no statistical or empirical argument for one over the other as it pertains to how to deploy the second 50%, but feel strongly about getting 50% of uninvested cash at once.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I would have to go back and look at the exact shape but I believe the market action today was quite identical to the last time the Fed announced a known rate hike, where the market bad been down, rallied huge to the upside on the news, sold off substantially, rallied all the way back, then sold off into the close with no new news. It’s all just so, so dumb. But I have more to say than that here …
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -505 points (-1.55%) S&P: -2.50% Nasdaq: -3.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.09% (+4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (-1.02%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-3.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.35/barrel (+1.11%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
ADP private sector number came in at +239k for October vs. 198k expected. BLS jobs report is Friday
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I would have to go back and look at the exact shape but I believe the market action today was quite identical to the last time the Fed announced a known rate hike, where the market bad been down, rallied huge to the upside on the news, sold off substantially, rallied all the way back, then sold off into the close with no new news. It’s all just so, so dumb. But I have more to say than that here …
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -505 points (-1.55%) S&P: -2.50% Nasdaq: -3.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.09% (+4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (-1.02%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-3.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.35/barrel (+1.11%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
ADP private sector number came in at +239k for October vs. 198k expected. BLS jobs report is Friday
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -80 points (-0.24%) S&P: -0.41% Nasdaq: -0.89% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.04% (-3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.99%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.81%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.57/barrel (+2.36%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
ISM Manufacturing fell to 50.2, just barely in expansion mode, and the weakest figure since May 2020. New Orders and Backlogs reflected contraction, and only 8 of 18 sectors saw growth on the month. But … Job Openings went HIGHER in September, coming in at 10.7 million (almost a million higher than the 9.8 million expected)
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures opened basically dead flat last night and stayed there into the evening. Bright and early this morning futures pointed to a down -100 point open pre-market and it worsened from there.
The market opened down -100 points or so and didn’t move much above or below that throughout the day. The Dow closed down -128 points (-0.39%) with the S&P 500 down -0.75% and the Nasdaq down -1.03%.
The Dow hit 28,661 at one point October 13, it closed as low as 29,203 on October 10, and yet today sits at 32,732, up +14% from mid-month lows. We are a bit over half way through earnings season (263/500 companies reporting) and sales growth is +10.3% year-over-year (a bit ahead of expectations and earnings growth is +4.2% (a bit behind expectations). Excluding the energy sector, though, earnings growth in the S&P 500 is negative year-over-year. Right now consensus expectations are for $235 of earnings from the S&P 500 in calendar year 2023. The number was $250 in the summer, so it has come down, but really not very much. Operating margins have declined from about 17% plus change to 16% plus change. For the third time this year we have a spike of breadth where the % of companies advancing over a 10-day period is in the 99th percentile (it also happened in January and July). In those other two occasions the momentum was not sustained. As good as things have been the last few weeks, only 40% of companies are above their 200-day moving average. And in some sectors the breadth of companies seeing price improvement is really, really low.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I have mentioned all week how excited I am for this week’s Dividend Cafe, and now here we are. I have explained why our annual week of money manager meetings is so important before, and have written weekly recaps before as well. But this is different. This week not only comes in the midst of a bear market (as the 2008 and 2011 trips did, as well) but was also the best-scheduled meeting we have ever had, meaning, the caliber and topical significance of many of the managers and economists we were in front of was top-shelf. Combine that with a dinner with one of the true legendary CEO’s in America, and it was an absolutely tremendous week.
It also comes at a very important time. I do not mean that because stocks are in a bear market, or interest rates are rising. I mean it because of the circumstances behind both of these things, years in the making, with years of profound investment ramifications ahead. I believe a lot of perspective was gained on this year’s trip that needs to be applied to a decade of thoughtful guidance, not merely covering a month or a quarter.
I hope you will find the information shared as interesting, actionable, useful, and provocative as I do. And, of course, reach out with any questions at any time. This is the stuff we live for, and I am confident this Dividend Cafe is one you will be glad you read.
So with that, let’s all jump in, to this “money manager week recap” edition of the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I returned from my meetings in Palm Beach at the end of the day yesterday and hit the ground running (both figuratively and literally) very early this morning. I love doing the DC Today. Special thanks to Brian and Trevor for filling in, and off we go with an action-packed recap of today …
Market Action
Dow: Up +194 points (+0.61%) – but off of a +550 point high S&P: -0.61% Nasdaq: -1.63% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.92% (-9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+1.14%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.12%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.58/barrel (+0.72%)
Key Economic Points of the Day:
Real GDP grew in Q3 at +2.6% annualized rate as net exports grew in light of energy exports being up and Chinese imports being down. Personal Consumption and Business Investment were up, but only a tad. New Orders for Durable Goods were up +0.4%, below the 0.6% expectation
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today was a mixed bag, where we continue to see varying results from the Dow and the Nasdaq. Some market pundits have dubbed this as value vs. growth or categorized these baskets of equities as a difference in “duration.”
Regardless of how you describe it, we saw some downward pressure resulting from less-than-favorable earnings reports on a handful of large tech companies, and some continued positive momentum from the sectors leading the market on the year (Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, etc.).
Market Action
Dow: +2.37 (0.01%) S&P: -0.74% Nasdaq: -2.04% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.01% (-9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.75%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.12/barrel (+3.26%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
The trade deficit widened in September by 5.7% (from $87.3 billion to $92.2 billion) There is a lot you could potentially dissect here, but the simplest explanation is that a strong dollar means buyers (exports) can buy less of our goods, and US purchasers (imports) can buy more goods, which expands the deficit – falling exports, rising imports. New home sales fell month over month (from 677,000 to 603,000), but we were still slightly above the average estimates of 593,000 For perspective here, new home sales peaked in August 2020 at 1.04 million Although the number of homes sold declined, the average sale price did rise from $436,800 to $470,600 (slightly below the record high of $479,800)
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We notched a third day of gains in markets today, up now 11% on the S&P from the intra-day lows a few weeks ago in a broad-based rally in both stocks and bonds, and I have plenty to go around the horn in my video and podcast links below. I have also sprinkled in a few takeaways from over 20 portfolio manager meetings last week in New York to add to your listening pleasure. Take a listen, and reach out to me, Brian Szytel, with questions.
Market Action
Dow: +337 points, +1.07% S&P: +1.63% Nasdaq: +2.25% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.10% (+ 13 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate +3.94% Bottom-performing sector: Energy -.05% WTI Crude Oil: $84.92 barrel +.40% Key Economic Points of the Day:
Consumer sentiment came in lower than expected at 102 versus expectations of 105. The Richmond Fed index came in weaker than expected today at -10. The US Dollar was lower on the day by about 1%, along with interest rates across the yield curve that both aided today’s equity rally. Terminal Fed Funds Rate shown ending north of CPI in all of the last rate tightening cycles is shown below. Today we are at 3.3% versus 8.2%, and while those rates will likely converge, we just aren’t there yet folks…
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I think we have a meaty one today, so here we go with this Monday edition of DC Today …
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Greetings from New York City, where I am two hedge fund meetings away today from being done with a week of extraordinary meetings, insights, and collaboration with our portfolio management partners. Some key takeaways are being summarized for next week, and a deliverable will be made available. More importantly, c It has been everything I hoped it would be this week, and more.
It is a shorter than normal Dividend Cafe this week because of the meeting load (and post-meeting download time). But I think what I do today you will find useful and valuable, as I use a Q&A format to answer a few key questions about the current investing state of affairs.
Let's jump into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Trevor Cummings here, and I am honored to be joining you for the third day in a row. As mentioned yesterday, David Bahnsen will be back tomorrow with his weekly commentary – Dividend Cafe. Additionally, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly writings at thoughtsonmoney.com. Now, off to the updates from this busy Thursday market day…
Dow: -91.01 (0.30%) S&P: -0.80% Nasdaq: -0.61% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.232% (+10.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (- 2.51%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.71/barrel (+0.19%) Key Economic Points of the Day: • Liz Truss has resigned as U.K. Prime Minister ◦ This was the shortest tenure in British history ◦ Note, her Finance Minister was dismissed from his post after just 38 days • Jobless claims came in at 214,000 on an expectation of 230,000 ◦ The impacts of Hurricane Ian on the data looked to be much lighter this week ◦ The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits sits at 1.39 million, near a 50-year low ◦ In simple terms, the labor market remains tight • As to be expected, U.S. existing-home sales were down ◦ The figures came in at 4.7 million, nearly on the dot with expectations ◦ This is eight consecutive months of decline and, when compared to September 2021, a slide of 23.8% ◦ Reminder, mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing, the general population is on edge regarding inflation and recession, and this combination of anxiety and affordability is slowing down activity • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index published today ◦ This regional look is meant to give a sneak peek at what the national ISM data might look like next month ◦ the numbers came in at -8.7 on an expectation of -5 (note, any number below 0 represents declining business conditions)
TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Welcome to DC Today where I, Trevor Cummings, will be your guest host again on this fine Wednesday. Please join me for the video or podcast (links below), as there is quite a bit to cover and discuss today. David Bahnsen will be back on Friday with his normally scheduled program – Dividend Cafe
Dow: -98.54 (-0.32%) S&P: -0.66% Nasdaq: -0.85% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.131% (+13.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.94%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.56%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.63/barrel (+3.39%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
Today we saw the published data for new housing starts and building permits
- Housing starts came in at 1.4mm on an expectation of 1.47mm
- Down 8.1% seasonally adjusted and down 7.7% year-over-year in September
- Looking at the attribution, we see new homes fell 4.7% and new apartment construction fell 13.1%
Building permits came in at 1.56mm on an expectation of 1.5mm
- Rising 1.4% in the month of September
- Permits for new homes fell 3.1%, with apartment construction rising 8.2%
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is Trevor Cummings joining you as your guest host on DC Today. You can find my weekly commentary at www.thoughtsonmoney.com. Also, please join me for the DC Today video and podcast – see below.
Market Action
Dow: +341.67 (1.13%) S&P: 1.16%% Nasdaq: 0.9% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.994% (+2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+2.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.22/barrel (-2.6%) Key Economic Point of the Day: • Industrial production in September rose 0.4% which was a surprise to the upside – estimates were 0.1%. Additionally, August was revised slightly to the upside, as well; a revision from -0.2% to -0.1%. • The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, making 10 consecutive months of decline. Note, the index was at 80 last October and this 10-month decline tops the record of consecutive declining months set in ’06/’08.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Greetings from the world’s greatest city where we kicked off money manager meeting week with significant discussions with the CIO, the taxable fixed income team, and the levered loan group at Voya, and this afternoon met with the real estate team, private equity group, and head real estate folks at Blackstone. It won’t be this many meetings every day this week (it better not be), but it was a great way to start off the week. My summary of the whole week will be prepared at the end of the week for public consumption.
- Futures opened last night up +100 points and stayed positive throughout the night even as Japanese markets struggled. By bedtime, we were about +150 in overnight futures and at the crack of dawn this morning (now on eastern time zone), futures were pointing to a +300-point open.
- The market opened up +500 points and got as high as +675 points, and stayed very level throughout the day.
- The Dow closed up +550 points (+1.86%) with the S&P 500 up +2.65% and the Nasdaq up a massive +3.43%.
- UK bonds rallied violently this morning as yields collapsed, no doubt the key correlative event to the U.S. stock market rally overnight. The 30-year and 20-year dropped by a stunning 40 basis points, and each point on the yield curve from three years up to ten years was down by almost the same. Anyone who bought British bonds last week made about two years’ worth of return in about 24 hours.
- The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.01%, up less than a basis point on the day
- I am not sure what to think about the measurement of bond returns in 1721 when churning butter was the most profound technological advancement of the decade, but I do know this: 2022 is going in the history books for global sovereign bond returns
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I hear often from investors who are focused on the “fun” parts of risk-asset investing that they “don’t care” about the bond market. Truth be told, it doesn’t do a lot to excite me, either. Most professional bond managers I know seem to be borderline Communists (just kidding), and the bond market itself lacks the human action that I believe is embedded in things like operating enterprises.
But the bond market cares about us whether or not we care about it, and that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. It is a message I like a lot, and I believe if you jump into today’s Dividend Cafe, you will come out more enlightened about economic growth, stock market pricing, interest rates, and the decisions we face as investors.
So let’s do just that.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I hear often from investors who are focused on the “fun” parts of risk-asset investing that they “don’t care” about the bond market. Truth be told, it doesn’t do a lot to excite me, either. Most professional bond managers I know seem to be borderline Communists (just kidding), and the bond market itself lacks the human action that I believe is embedded in things like operating enterprises.
But the bond market cares about us whether or not we care about it, and that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe. It is a message I like a lot, and I believe if you jump into today’s Dividend Cafe, you will come out more enlightened about economic growth, stock market pricing, interest rates, and the decisions we face as investors.
So let’s do just that.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Okay, so one of the largest intra-day market moves on record (from down -550 to up +950 – a 1,500 bottom-to-top move today). So there is market action AND inflation/economic action to unpack, and you have come to the right place:
MARKET ACTION
Dow: Up +828 points (+2.83%) – was down -550 points at the low S&P: +2.60% Nasdaq: 2.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.95% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+4.14%) – I am not going to take the time to look it up, but I will safely guess that this is the best day in years for Financials; in fact, I bet HALF of this would be the best day of 2022 for financials … NOTE: Energy was right behind it at +4.08% Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (+0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.25/barrel (+2.27%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
CPI (headline) increased +0.4% for the month where +0.3% had been expected. Headline inflation is up +8.2% on the year vs. a peak of +8.9% several months back. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was up +0.6% in September. Energy prices fell -2.1% but food prices increased +0.8%. It is all about food inflation in the aggregate data. Services is the source of increased inflation. Rents were up +0.8% on the month and primary residence impact is up +7.2% year-over-year. This is simply not true in the present tense but the lag effect is the driver here as we shall all see in a couple months’ time. The Fed has NO influence on this, but Health insurance prices were up a staggering 2.1% on the month and are up +28% on the year Airfare is up 43% on the year (base effect from limited travel a year ago) Goods prices were FLAT – slowest year-over-year increase since May 2021 (+6.6%) Used car prices down -1.1% on the month Clothing down -0.3%
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market zigged and zagged all day and was down -100 and up +200 before closing down a tad in the final minutes of trading. Lots to say about the Bank of England in today’s podcast …
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -28 points (-0.10%) S&P: -0.33% Nasdaq: 0.09% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.89% (- 4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.75%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-3.42%) – the collapse in this sector in the last month is absolutely unprecedented WTI Crude Oil: $87.09/barrel (-2.53%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
Core PPI (ex-food and energy) came in exactly in line at +0.3%. August’s PPI was revised downwards. September’s PPI headline read (w/ food and energy) was +0.4%. The year-over-year headline PPI is +8.5% vs. +8.7% last month. Processed goods prices fell for the third month in a row. Prices for transportation and storage fell -0.2%. Goods down, services up.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
An odd day (old school) as the Dow started down a bit, rallied way higher (up +400 points at one point), fell into negative territory, then closed up +36 as old-guard defensive sectors did very well (Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Health Care) and the cool stuff got hit. More to say on everything here.
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +36 points (+0.12%) S&P: -0.65% Nasdaq: -1.10% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.937% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.02%) and Consumer Staples (+0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.63%) and Technology (-1.52%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (-2.73%)
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I am not sure I have complained enough about the absurdity of having a day when the stock market is open and the bond market is not. Columbus Day is this odd anomaly where they honored the great explorer in financial markets in the most convoluted way possible – by taking away banking transactions and bond activity but by having stock exchanges open (for those who have not read my prior writings on such a thing, it is highly distortive to markets, as many financial actors function in both spaces at once, so lose use of the left hand while they continue to use their right hand). That said, today was such an absurd day.
I did write a Dividend Cafe Friday with more information about the bear market in which we find ourselves, and the historical lessons that may be useful as we proceed through this. The video is here with the same comments on podcast here.
I was on CNBC this morning giving my feedback to comments the media was running with from Jamie Dimon (the CEO of JP Morgan). My first comment was spot on. My second comment was spot on. And my third comment was about to hit the ball out of the park, when all of a sudden …. (you’ll have to see).
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I am not sure I have complained enough about the absurdity of having a day when the stock market is open and the bond market is not. Columbus Day is this odd anomaly where they honored the great explorer in financial markets in the most convoluted way possible – by taking away banking transactions and bond activity but by having stock exchanges open (for those who have not read my prior writings on such a thing, it is highly distortive to markets, as many financial actors function in both spaces at once, so lose use of the left hand while they continue to use their right hand). That said, today was such an absurd day.
I did write a Dividend Cafe Friday with more information about the bear market in which we find ourselves, and the historical lessons that may be useful as we proceed through this. The video is here with the same comments on podcast here.
I was on CNBC this morning giving my feedback to comments the media was running with from Jamie Dimon (the CEO of JP Morgan). My first comment was spot on. My second comment was spot on. And my third comment was about to hit the ball out of the park, when all of a sudden …. (you’ll have to see).
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I wouldn’t say that I like this, but I would say that I understand it. But last week’s Dividend Cafe was, in just a few days, the most widely read Dividend Cafe I have ever written. I hope that is because clients and readers flocked to the philosophical takeaways of a deeper reflection on bear markets like the one we are in now. But I know that the ratings of financial TV networks skyrocket higher in bad times and that it has a lot more to do with the reality of human nature than anything else. Fear gets clicks and views.
I don’t do fearmongering. My Dividend Cafe last week was actually the opposite of fearmongering. I sought to present the highly rational case for a real glory in the aftermath of bear markets for investors who behave well. Nevertheless, I can understand that the general interest in the topic is largely related to the fear and emotion that goes with the uncertainty of the moment.
This week I am keeping the topic alive, partially because the current bear market did not end in the last five days but also because there is more to be said about the history of all this and the future. And I believe you will find both illuminating in the uncertainty of the moment.
So let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
A little market move down today – nothing to write home about. But more information on big picture you will want to listen to right here …
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -347 points (-1.15%) S&P: -1.02% Nasdaq: -0.68% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.83% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.82%) – fourth day in a row Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-3.30%) – second day in a row; rare and nasty WTI Crude Oil: $88.90/barrel (+1.26%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
Initial jobless claims came in at 219k, higher than the 203k expected (though continuing claims came in a tad less than expected) Mortgage rates at 16-year high … (6.75%)
ASK DAVID “Given the tight labor market and recognizing the number of people that left the workforce over the past 2+ years, is it reasonable to expect a decrease in unemployment numbers any time soon? If it’s not reasonable to expect a decrease in unemployment numbers, do you think the Fed should use this criteria as a benchmark for monetary policy?”
~ Ed D.
Unfortunately, I do believe unemployment will go higher, and I do believe it will be relevant to Fed policy. Technically their dual mandate includes full employment, so if they pursue a monetary policy that increases joblessness I believe they will reverse course. I don’t think it is the benchmark they say it is, but I do think right now it gives them cover in non-effective monetary tightening (if anyone still believes the Fed Funds rate is causing inflation I have a bridge to sell them, assuming I can get the parts and labor).
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -42 points (-0.14%) S&P: -0.20% Nasdaq: -0.25% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+13 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.06%) – third day in a row top sector Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-2.25%) WTI Crude Oil: $87.97/barrel (+1.69%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) came in at 56.7, still well into expansion and above the expectation but less than month’s levels. Services are expanding while Goods are slowing.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The second violent rally day in a row took place today, with the market up nearly +6% to start off October, erasing all of the downturn of the last ten days of September (for now). More to say in our daily podcast, of course!
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +825 points (+2.80%) S&P: +3.06% Nasdaq: +3.34% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.63% (-2.2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+4.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+1.53%) WTI Crude Oil: $86.30/barrel (+3.17%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
A big rally day after a bloodbath week in markets. Lots to say on markets and more markets today.
The thing most on everyone’s mind right now is surely the raging bear market (in both stocks and bonds). I addressed it thoroughly in Friday’s Dividend Cafe and really encourage you to read it here. The weekly video is here, and the same comments from the video are in podcast form here. The underlying theme is that our pathos very understandably sees times like these as negatives, while our logos must be reminded of how wonderful times like these prove to be.
I was on Varney Friday, was on Kudlow’s radio show (WABC) Saturday, and on Charles Payne today talking markets.
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
A big rally day after a bloodbath week in markets. Lots to say on markets and more markets today.
The thing most on everyone’s mind right now is surely the raging bear market (in both stocks and bonds). I addressed it thoroughly in Friday’s Dividend Cafe and really encourage you to read it here. The weekly video is here, and the same comments from the video are in podcast form here. The underlying theme is that our pathos very understandably sees times like these as negatives, while our logos must be reminded of how wonderful times like these prove to be.
I was on Varney Friday, was on Kudlow’s radio show (WABC) Saturday, and on Charles Payne today talking markets.
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today’s Dividend Cafe is sort of the reason the Dividend Cafe started. I didn’t call it Dividend Cafe back then, I didn’t have a website for it, I didn’t post it on social media, it wasn’t re-published on a multitude of financial websites, there was no podcast, there was no video, and it didn’t have nearly 20,000 subscribers. In fact, there couldn’t be any “subscribers” because there was no organized list – just me sending an email from Microsoft Outlook manually to clients I thought would like to hear what I had to say. And the catalyst? A bear market.
The week I began doing this “weekly commentary” we were not in an “ordinary” bear market. In a ten day span Fannie and Freddie had been taken over by the government, Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, AIG had gone down, Merrill Lynch ran into the arms of Bank of America, and my own firm at the time, Morgan Stanley, was in its own existential (but soon to solved) crisis. Mortgage bonds were collapsing, housing prices were utterly collapsing, and yes, the stock market was in freefall.
Today I write to talk about bear markets. Not societal collapse. Not the mother of all credit implosions. Not a deep and unbearable recession (the “great” recession). But bear markets. The kind where stocks drop and investors do one of two things. We are going to talk about those two things, and I hope when you are done reading you will not merely feel better about this bear market, but even just a little bit excited (as counter-intuitive to human nature as that may be).
So let’s jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, as it does what it was always created to do – present the unvarnished truth in matters of macroeconomics and investor behavior, and do so towards the greater end of the very purpose for which we at The Bahnsen Group work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We reversed much, although not all, of yesterday’s broad-based rally in today’s market sell-off – what one day giveth another taketh away. I unpack it all in a deep capital markets dive for you in today’s video and podcast links below that you’ll not want to miss.
Dow: -458 points (-1.54%) S&P: -2.11% Nasdaq: -2.84% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.77% (down 6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (- .13%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-4.07%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.47/barrel (- .83%)
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
A rally day on Wall Street and a thorough explanation in today’s DC Today podcast!
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +549 points (+1.88%) S&P: +1.97% Nasdaq: +2.05% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.73% (-23 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+4.40%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (+0.92%) – worst sector still up by almost 1%, and this was heavily weighed down by Apple being negative WTI Crude Oil: $81.88/barrel (+4.31%) Key Economic Point of the Day: National Rent Report showing national residential rents down -0.2% month-over-month, first monthly median decline in over two years
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
A rally day on Wall Street and a thorough explanation in today’s DC Today podcast!
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +549 points (+1.88%) S&P: +1.97% Nasdaq: +2.05% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.73% (-23 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+4.40%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (+0.92%) – worst sector still up by almost 1%, and this was heavily weighed down by Apple being negative WTI Crude Oil: $81.88/barrel (+4.31%) Key Economic Point of the Day: National Rent Report showing national residential rents down -0.2% month-over-month, first monthly median decline in over two years
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Markets took a decent lead at the open but couldn’t hold it, and there is some more to say about the bond market in today’s daily podcast!
TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Markets took a decent lead at the open but couldn’t hold it, and there is some more to say about the bond market in today’s daily podcast!
TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is a long DC Today with a lot more market talk than you are used to, largely because the “legacy” version is only one day a week and I am purposely trying to pack a lot in. The last week has been brutal for markets and I have a lot to say today to quantify it, and a lot coming Friday in Dividend Cafe to qualify it.
I was the market guest on Maria’s Wall Street over the weekend, discussing all sorts of aspects of the market and investing environment.
Dividend Cafe on Friday dug deeper into foreign policy and geopolitical threats and their potential ramifications to markets. The video is here and same comments on podcast here.
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is a long DC Today with a lot more market talk than you are used to, largely because the “legacy” version is only one day a week and I am purposely trying to pack a lot in. The last week has been brutal for markets and I have a lot to say today to quantify it, and a lot coming Friday in Dividend Cafe to qualify it.
I was the market guest on Maria’s Wall Street over the weekend, discussing all sorts of aspects of the market and investing environment.
Dividend Cafe on Friday dug deeper into foreign policy and geopolitical threats and their potential ramifications to markets. The video is here and same comments on podcast here.
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The stock, bond, and housing markets are in pretty real distress right now as higher rates re-price risk assets, and general instability in monetary policy becomes the natural consequence of years of excess and irresponsibility.
And yet, everyone is already talking about it, making it a far less compelling candidate for this week’s Dividend Cafe. I have covered plenty on monetary policy this year and it will remain a primary macroeconomic focus in my shop for years to come. And as far as the general equity market distress playing out, I do think a general primer on bear markets next week will be useful (I have already begun writing it in my head).
But this week, I believe we are due for a topic that may be more dramatic than even stock market volatility, inflation, or Fed breakage. I think that through the lenses we normally think about various international affairs, particularly as it pertains to countries we consider enemies of the United States, we are missing some economic and market-sensitive ramifications that will be important to better understand.
So grab your globe but not your passport, and let’s devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to a few matters of international significance. I confess up front that it may not all cheer you up, but I can promise you this: It is not going to be the standard level of depth you are often exposed to.
Let’s dive deeper, and jump in, to the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market really doesn’t want to close strong these days, going from +100 to -100 in the last ten minutes of trading today.
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -107 points (-0.35%) S&P: -0.84% Nasdaq: -1.37% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.71% (+20 basis points!) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.16%); now down -27% on the year, just 1% away from the down -28% of Technology but not nearly as bad as -36% Communication Services WTI Crude Oil: $83.45/barrel (+0.60%) Key Economic Points of the Day:
The Bank of Japan left their policy rate unchanged (as expected) Initial jobless claims came in again at just 213,000, and last week, it was revised down to 208,000. The four-week average is now the lowest since early June.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I’d love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading.
Dow: -522 points (-1.70%) S&P: (-1.71%) Nasdaq: (-1.79%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.37%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.04/barrel (+0.12%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Existing home sales dropped -0.4% in August and are down -19.9% from a year ago
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
A volatile day to the downside in markets today as traders await comments from the Fed tomorrow and as bond yields bring down risk asset valuation.
Dow: -313 points (-1.01%) S&P: -1.13% Nasdaq: -0.95% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.56% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (-0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.57%) WTI Crude Oil: $84.16/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Housing starts came in at 1.575 million annualized for the month of August, a whopping 125k above expectations. Nearly all of the excess vs. expectations were in multi-family, with single-family coming in the second lowest since mid-2020.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It is not accidental that I write so much about the Energy sector. First and most applicable, we are big energy investors at The Bahnsen Group, carrying an allocation in our Core Dividend portfolio that is triple the weight that the S&P 500 has. What is happening in energy markets has profound relevance for the economy at large, for all people in their everyday lives, and across all national borders. Few things are more globally relevant than access to energy.
But if I am being totally honest, even apart from the large financial exposure we have to the energy space, I love this subject because energy fascinates me. It should fascinate anyone who spends just sixty seconds thinking about the fact that natural resources around for thousands of years with almost no known utility have created a more significant increase in the quality of life for more people than anything under the sun. “Transformed energy” sits at the heart of all economic activity, as my friend Louis Gave is fond of saying.
You cannot destroy energy, which is both a law of the universe most of us learned in elementary school and, these days, apparently a vital message for investors. In the physical universe, it merely means energy is constantly changing – usually for the purpose of doing work – but in the investing world, I believe it means something different but perhaps not entirely disconnected.
So let’s do a little autumn analysis of the energy sector, where we are, where we may be going, and see what may edify us in the discussion. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Special thanks to all who have reached out to say how much they like and appreciate the new format. Between the addition of a podcast, a video, a transcription of the podcast, and the continuation of a daily written synopsis, along with the legacy version on Monday and the real meat of Dividend Cafe on Friday, I think the vast majority of readers have been extremely positive in their feedback. Ironically, the one or two nasty emails we got (you should see the stuff my communications team receives sometimes) were not even from clients, soooooo …. I do recognize that sometimes people like routine and familiarity (I am one of them), but change is part of life, and these changes were done to add mediums that are most popular and sought after, and to harmonize the workload with the reality of someone who has worked 16-18 hours per day for 25 years. Beyond that, I’m pretty much done talking about it …
Okay – off we go!
MARKET ACTION
Dow: -173 points (-0.56%) S&P: (-1.13%) Nasdaq: (-1.43%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (+3.7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.55%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.30/barrel (-3.62%) Key Economic Point of the Day:
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The day after the market sell-off you had a small move higher in each equity index but I unpack it all and then some here …
MARKET ACTION
Dow: +30 points (+0.10%) S&P: +0.34% Nasdaq: +0.74% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.41% (- 1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-1.39%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (+1.57%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Even as the Consumer Price Index came in a bit higher than expected yesterday, the Producer Price Index dropped -0.1% in August (consensus was for no change)
ASK DAVID “When you refer to the futures market predicting a 88% chance of a 75bp rate hike or whatever the percentage and outcome may be, how is that determined?”
~ Don D.
The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) makes a market in fed funds rate futures. Real people using real money to buy real futures contracts on what the real rate may be at real future intervals. This futures market is the gold standard of measuring market expectations around the fed funds rate. ON DECK I will be on set co-hosting for an hour tomorrow with Stuart Varney (9am-10am ET) on Fox Business.
CHECK OUT I was on set with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business early this morning talking energy, inflation, markets, growth, and more. A worthwhile interview!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The Consumer Price Index (Headline CPI) came in +8.3% over where it was a year ago. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in at +6.3% versus a year ago. Food prices and the lagging effect of shelter cost put upward pressure on prices while energy prices and used cars put downward pressure on prices.
TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It’s pretty anti-climactic that I announce the new DC Today plans on Thursday and then we get to Monday and … it’s the same DC Today you are used to … But that is the idea – no difference in the written program for DC Today on Monday, but with the addition of this daily podcast (and video) …
TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I first want to thank everyone for the extremely positive feedback last week on the somewhat unique Dividend Cafe juxtaposing USC football and markets. It was fun to write and, at least for some of you, appears to have been fun to read.
But for those who prefer the serious stuff, we are back to normal this week, and I think it is time I cover a topic that comes up a lot anecdotally, but I don’t think has ever received headline treatment in the Dividend Cafe. And yet, it is one of the single most important topics in the field of economics and finance …
I refer to currencies, the U.S. dollar in particular, but really the overall global dynamics of currency and what it all means to investors. Currency ramifications impact all investors all the time, yet we rarely contemplate why or how. Today I want to play around a bit with some aspects of this critical topic in the present reality.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Why in the world would I waste the precious soundwaves of Dividend Cafe to recap day-by-day market action when this hallowed ground is supposed to be reserved for what actually matters in markets (and life)? Because we are entering football season, of course, and how this all connects is about to be readily apparent to you.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Long-time readers of Dividend Cafe know that the real intent of this weekly commentary is to delve into the macroeconomic – the big picture – the high-level stuff that impacts investor decisions and behavior. Today in honor of the obsession over Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (being delivered shortly after I hit “submit” on this commentary), I want to talk not an iota about the Fed, monetary policy, or really any aspect of macroeconomics.
Rather, I want to actually dive into a question that is hyper-practical – more micro than macro – and that is when to sell a stock. I was in the process of answering a question about this topic for the Ask David section of The DC Today when I realized it really warranted the full Dividend Cafe treatment.
So here we are – a Fed-free Dividend Cafe dedicated to the ever-practical issue of sell discipline. We’ll discuss Jackson Hole in Monday’s DC Today (only because I have to), but for today let’s talk about how dividend growth equity investors like ourselves think about the right time to sell a stock. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We have a fun Dividend Cafe for you this week, with by far the most important things on my mind in the summer of 2022 getting all of the attention. This is a short, easy read, and easily digestible for anyone looking to make heads or tails of the current market conditions. I will spare you further introduction and jump right into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I kind of like this week's Dividend Cafe. We are going to do a very quick look into how the Fed fuels Japanification, but more specifically, how low-interest rates hurt growth. It is one thing (and a more severe one at that) that monetary policymakers generally view artificially low rates as a really good thing to fuel economic growth, but at this stage in my life and career, there is little I can do about that. It is another thing altogether that so many investors think is a great thing. Today I want to do a quick lesson on why it is not just wrong but a dangerous fallacy, that is, wait for it, undermining economic growth.
Speaking of growth, many want to know when the Emerging Markets will deliver it. I think you will benefit from that lesson today as well. Unfortunately, the EM gain is likely to be Europe's pain, so get ready for a case of hot-cold.
And finally, I want to add to last week's talk about "gross domestic product" in how we think about economic growth. You may find it illuminating.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
One of the hardest things about being an economic commentator in this day and age is that economic commentary requires nuance, and this day and age requires narratives. There is to be a single narrative about X, and any variation around, above, beneath, or of the exact X narrative is heretical or at least unappreciated.
It is a tough way for society to function, but it is an especially tough way to do economic analysis.
I do not merely refer to the inevitable complexity involved in topics like these that are, well, complex. You are smart readers, and I do my very best (sometimes better than others) to make complex topics a bit more comprehensible in my writing and speaking. Readers and listeners can judge how effective I am there, but I do try. No, this is not about complexity, but nuance, which basically can be quite simple at times; it is just that it doesn't fit into the script of a narrative. It isn't binary. The nuances of proper economic analysis aren't always fit for a forced narrative.
Such is the moment we are in, and today I want to answer your questions about the state of the economy. If I do my job right, everyone will be mad at me when all is said and done (I should fail at landing in either of the primary narratives of the day). Such is the plight of an economic truth-teller in 2022 ...
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I really did mean to write this entire piece last week but simply ran out of time and space. I will give you a recap today of last week’s takeaways but then make sure this week’s wraps a bow around our updated point of view on inflation.
This is not merely a philosophical exercise. There is an abundance of empirical support provided for my position, and I think you will find a lot of the information about the present state of affairs surprising. You may draw a different conclusion on the matter than I do, but my conclusions on what this means for the decade ahead have profound implications for citizens and investors alike. Again, this can’t be armchair stuff for a real asset allocator; this is what we call fiduciary responsibility.
So grab a cup of coffee and get comfortable. This is one of those truly Dividend Cafe editions. Jump on in…
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It has been a year and a half since I first took up the inflation/deflation debate as a matter of contemporary debate (a part 1 and a part 2). As much as I wished then (and now) that the great economic fight we would have for the next thirty years was inflation, I believed then (and now) that the great economic fight we will have for the next thirty years is better referred to as deflation (a term that itself will require more precise explanation. Some more in-depth updates on the subject have also been produced with a deep desire to really explain and contextualize the state of affairs.
Nevertheless, the responsibility of clarity in messaging is with the writer, not the reader, and while there is only so much I can do to make sure those reading it understand it, I have a pretty strong desire to keep doing more.
Let me just leave the introduction there and dive into this topic. I suppose I do hope some clarification comes out of this, but truth be told, I am more passionate about just reiterating the great economic message of our time. My agenda is not academic, and it is not political. I am responsible for actual client capital, which is to say, the instrumentation by which actual human goals and needs are met. I take it very, very seriously. And this subject sits at the center of what I believe is a generational economic challenge.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I send this week’s Dividend Cafe at the end of a 24-hour trip to Las Vegas, where I spoke at a conference yesterday. 2,600 people have come to the 110-degree city of sin for the purpose of hearing various economic and political musings, and one such forum of musings was a panel with myself, Steve Forbes, George Gilder, and Mark Skousen discussing, of all things, my book! It was a surreal experience to be next to Gilder, whose Wealth and Poverty was a transformative book in my intellectual development as a pretty darn young guy (you would actually think less of me if you knew how young I was when I read it).
Anyways, by the time you read this, I will be on a plane back to New York City Friday afternoon, where I will be working all of next week before returning to Newport Beach next weekend.
We are living in a time where there have been more bad ideas than money to invest in (or at least bad prices at which to buy those ideas). Soon we will see more money than people acting on bad ideas. But right now, a little parsing out of what the laws of contrarian investing mean is in order, and I think you will find it fascinating.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The fundamental tension in the economy today, and less directly so, in markets themselves, is really simple: Is a recession coming that slows down price inflation? That question is simple to identify as the economic tension point of the moment, but it is not simple to answer.
One reason for this complexity is that some of the premises brought to the question are not to be taken for granted. And this is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe – what do we know about current economic conditions, potential economic developments, and eventual economic results? What do some think they know that could be wrong? And what is an investor to do through all of this?
I have some thoughts to share that can hopefully bring clarity to much of this, and some of those thoughts are merely clarifying, while others may be non-consensus views. Either way, convictions run deep at The Bahnsen Group, as does humility. That is another “tension” that we hold gladly.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Happy Independence Day weekend to you and yours. Or for those without much historical interest, Happy Fourth of July.
Today’s Dividend Cafe is not going to dive into the state of the market, though I can promise you that Tuesday’s DC Today will have plenty to say about the first half of 2022 and our expectations for the second half.
But for today, I want to look at this Independence Day holiday that we celebrate in our country, and analyze what the Fourth of July has to do with markets and economics. I make no bones out of the fact that I love my country, and much have that has to do with understanding what this country is – an idea, and an exceptional idea, at that. How the exceptional idea of America ties into markets, economics, and investing, is where we are going in today’s Dividend Cafe. Jump on in – there will be time enough for BBQ and sun this weekend.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I’ll be very honest with you – I prefer single-topic Dividend Café issues. I wrote a multi-topic weekly commentary for many years before moving to a “mostly” single-topic orientation, and I have never loved writing Dividend Café more. I feel that the weekly information quality and value is higher with a singular focus each week, and I think the “variety” style works better in our daily market bulletin that is Dividend Café’s cousin, The DC Today.
But today’s Dividend Cafe is a bit different. There are a few “big” issues that people are bringing up daily, and I want to do a little multi-question fireside chat with you.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe … I promise you’ll find something of interest, and maybe even intellectually transformative!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Volatility continues and certain market sectors are reeling, along with investors.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Once again we find ourselves in the midst of a tumultuous week in the markets, and yet with bigger fish to fry in the Dividend Cafe? What could be bigger than a 1,400 point drop in the market on the week, and a 3,000 point drop in the last two weeks (note: I am hitting “send” on this before the market opens on Friday, and pre-market action Friday does appear to be to the upside right now, but you know how that goes)?
Well, for one thing, I think most of the commentary I have to offer on the specific things taking place this week in markets was well-covered in each edition of The DC Today this week. If day-to-day market distress is distressing you, I hope you will turn to The DC Today as a resource. Reading it cannot make the market go up any more than my act of writing it can, but hopefully, it can provide clarity around where this volatility fits into expectations for investors who have real financial goals in their lives.
So the bigger fish to fry I refer to are not about the specific Fed meeting of this week, or this most recent interest rate hike, or even my broader theme about the carnage in “shiny object” investing … It has to do with discussions around a potential deeper level of concern in financial markets, and what they may look like. I hope after reading this week’s Dividend Cafe you will feel a bit smarter, a bit more informed, and a bit more at peace.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I purposely wrote this week’s Dividend Cafe before the CPI number posted this morning at 8:30 am ET. Lots of traders were getting in front of this late Thursday, and a market that had rallied up +2,000 points in the last two weeks was down -1,000 points in the last five days and is now down a lot as markets open Friday.
We are in a period of short-term traders trying to front-run the Fed, but more particularly, trying to front-run those who they think are trying to front-run the Fed. What I mean is not as complicated as it sounds: The basic belief is that if inflation data looks worse, for longer, the Fed becomes more Volcker-like in their hawkish tightening, and that hurts risk assets; therefore, if we see a whisker of “more inflationary than expected” some will start selling, and we should sell before they sell.
Well, good luck with all that.
Today I am going to look at what could make this market get worse, not in a “traders are going to do this” kind of way, but in a real systemic, significant, macro kind of way. It will turn into a two-parter, no doubt. But let’s look behind the headlines of the day, the CPI print of the moment, and the Fed actions of next week. Let’s dive into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I am doing three things in the Dividend Cafe today that I pretty much never do. For one thing, I am blatantly ripping someone off (you’ll see; it’s not as bad as it sounds). Secondly, I am getting pretty biographical (though I guess I do that every once in a while; last week being the most recent example). And then finally, I am really focusing on one pretty specific and even granular investment topic. Now that, I do every now and then – but not like this. You’ll see.
So jump on into the Dividend Cafe to see me rip off someone else’s work, talk about a very personal and biographical aspect of my life, and apply it all to a really specific investment lesson and principle – one that should not be missed.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I really do not know how today’s Dividend Cafe is going to be received. I obviously believe in every word of what I have typed or I wouldn’t have typed them, yet I have found two things to be the case in my efforts at thought leadership in matters of markets and economics:
(1) People sometimes do not like it when I veer off of a stock market focus, and
(2) People do not like hearing what they do not want to hear
The first one is more problematic when it comes to things like the bond market or public policy or monetary policy or alternative investing – the excitement of the stock market sometimes has to take a backseat to other matters that are absolutely integrally connected to it!
But the second one is what I am worried about today. In over 20 years of professionally stewarding client assets, I have never seen investors be as emotional about any “asset class” as they are about housing. And if all that meant was “people are nostalgic and protective about where they live” – that would be one thing. But that is not what I mean. Opinions about the residential real estate market are, shall we say, sometimes laced with emotion, sometimes perhaps delusion, and often with various presuppositions that are hard for me to make sense of at times.
Housing is back front and center in financial discussions, and all I want to do today in the Dividend Cafe is make sense of it, and give you some wisdom and insights that I believe will be useful in a holistic commentary of the day. So to that end, I work. We’ll still be friends if anything I say bothers you.
Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe for a special Housing edition …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I have done something really fun with today’s Dividend Cafe – at least fun for me. I have taken the most common questions I receive these days from clients, in emails, in meetings, in interviews, etc., and compiled a set of answers that walk through the big issues of today. I think you will find it valuable.
I doubt I cover everything on your mind here, so by all means fire away with new questions (questions@thebahnsengroup.com). You may just see it covered in The DC Today, and you will certainly hear from me personally.
In the meantime, let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I had fun writing today’s Dividend Cafe and I think you may very well have fun hearing (and reading) it. I also think some of you may be mad at me for it. I hope I am wrong. I believe there are a multitude of messages in the Dividend Cafe this week that are vital for investors in this current era, and the one that is to come. I also feel these messages are timely. Jump on in …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market volatility is on a roll, with the VIX now double the level it started the year at. This week saw the biggest up day we have had all year, followed the very next day by the biggest down day of the year.
A lot is happening, and we can and will unpack it in today’s Dividend Cafe, but we will not leave it there. The takeaway today will be what to do about it (or not do about it), and that is why you should enter the Dividend Cafe. Knowledge followed by action. To that end we work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Recession. The dreaded word, “recession.” For those who have lost their job in one, it can feel like a depression. For those who kept their own job in one but saw their portfolios drop, or saw neighbors or loved ones lose their jobs, or experienced a decline in income or business revenue, it may not have had the existential punch that it did for others, but it generates unpleasant memories of unpleasant times.
There is a lot of talk about a recession right now, some of it imbecilic, some of it overtly political, and some of it, quite substantive and important. But if the Dividend Cafe exists to bring simplicity and honesty to topics that are often spoken of with too much complexity and/or abundant dishonesty, the task at hand is readily apparent.
And so we will look at recession reality in current times, when, what, and why, and unpack the investment implications on all of it. I will always do my best at the simplicity part (I know I miss the mark there sometimes). I will be unrelenting in the honesty part. But as far as the pleasant part of it all, well, let’s just say my focus is on the honesty part.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Volatility, Rate Hikes, Inflation, and so much more on this Dividend Cafe Special Edition Podcast
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
If there is one thing that animates me it is the application of real-life economics to investing. I have always been obsessed with economics – both theory and application – but it is in more recent years that I have really found it a calling to synthesize the foundational truths of economics to financial markets.
And truth be told, that calling transcends the applications of economic theory to financial markets. I believe properly understood economics has profound implications for all aspects of human living. My extra-curricular endeavors in economics (the book I wrote last year, the class I teach at the high school I co-founded) are all extensions of this passion I have for a free and virtuous society. But yes, applying these things to financial markets is my real passion, and the inability and disinterest the financial advice community has for applying economic principles to markets is a constant source of irritation.
Today’s Dividend Cafe is about the labor market – the state of jobs in America. For 99% of the media and even economic analysts these days this is an econometric subject. In other words, it is a data point that provides an input to a spreadsheet, and from there carries some numerical relevance to another input (i.e. if wages are here or unemployment is here, then consumer spending is possibly going to be here, etc.). Worse, it is often just a mere political data point, perhaps an even more imbecilic understanding of work than even reducing it to an economic data point.
But economics is the study of human action around the allocation of scarce resources. Our understanding of what is happening and not happening in the world of work will be improved to see it through the lens of the human person. Political and econometric reductions will tell us almost nothing, and in fact, may tell us things that aren’t true at all.
Investors and actors in financial markets need a fuller understanding of current realities in American labor. To that end, we work … (see what I did there). So jump on into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this market-shortened week I thought a shorter Dividend Cafe may be appropriate, especially as we prepare for a long weekend and the Easter holiday. More on that below …
And not only do I think I controlled the length of this week’s Dividend Cafe (within reason), I also took advantage of the week to dive into a topic that is almost entirely avoided by the media and investing public. I can’t really explain why we mostly ignore private equity and private credit when we discuss financial markets. I understand public stock markets have a certain sensationalism to them, not to mention clear pricing visibility that facilitates a lot of noise. But the private markets are just as much the real economy as public markets, and if the heart of free enterprise is where there is human action, I assure you private markets are deep into the capture of human activity (for good or for bad).
But it is not enough to “talk” about private equity and private debt as if they are either “good” or “bad” investments. There is a complexity here that requires a bit of unpacking, and the unpacking of complexity is the business of the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
From the seat of a person who dispenses financial advice for a living, one could be forgiven for believing there must have been a time in the recent past that was quite idyllic. Why? The constant chorus of those concerned about “new instability” or “these difficult times” or “all this uncertainty” all implies one thing: That there must have been a time where stability and certainty ruled the roost.
Today we are going to do a little history lesson, and by the end we’ll draw a few conclusions. The point will not to be wrap current economic or political circumstances in a pretty bow – but rather, to contrast the present to the past with history and logic.
The conclusions will either concern you or encourage you. But the information will be informative.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I love the topic of this week’s Dividend Cafe. I believe one of the most powerful people in global finance gave me the chance to address a topic today that desperately needs to be addressed. And through this topic we have profound takeaways to inform our understanding of economics, and to apply such understanding to the emphases we put in our portfolios.
I will leave the introduction there, and hopefully with enough suspense to push you into the Dividend Cafe. This is important stuff.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We all know that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the biggest story of 2022 thus far, not just for markets but for the entire news cycle. Ten minutes do not go by on the news without hearing the word “Russia” or “Ukraine” – for good reason (there is a war going on, you know).
And there are other countries that do not exactly hide in the background, either. China is never far from our dialogue, both because of their role in the COVID pandemic that swept the globe in 2020 and because of their sheer size as an economic powerhouse. In fact, U.S.-China relations may be the most talked about geopolitical story of the last ten years (also for good reason).
But there is another country that is rarely discussed these days, and perhaps offers as many economic implications as Russia, Ukraine, and China. And when I say economic implications, I mean the full portfolio of categories – geopolitical, financial markets, and macroeconomic.
And that country is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I hope you will find this to be a special Dividend Cafe. No, this week’s Dividend Cafe doesn’t dare to bring the vast military sophistication of people who tweet all day long to you, but maybe we do one better.
We don’t talk about Russia/Ukraine at all.
Actually there is some true connectivity between much of what I discuss today and how it interacts with current events, but at the core of the present market story is the challenge of growth. Military conflicts, elevated uncertainty, spikes in commodity prices, and other undesirables do not help the growth story. But they are peripheral pieces to the story, not the story itself.
And today in the Dividend Cafe we are going to talk about growth, and all we are doing to make sure we never get enough of exactly what we need.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The fog of war continues in Ukraine with the entire world watching. The path to some immediate resolution has mostly closed, and expectations are for a complicated and extended process. Prayers are for minimal bloodshed and certainly for a limited scope to where the conflict goes. But few analysts are able to formulate a scenario where this ends well.
The dollar is rallying. The Euro is collapsing. Oil is skyrocketing. U.S. equity markets are experiencing significant gyrations up and down day by day. I believe those five sentences summarize the five most important themes in financial markets right now (the collapse of the ruble and the Russian equity markets does not make the list, because who cares).
I could certainly provide commentary today on the history of how markets have responded to various geopolitical distresses over the years, and maybe that will be needed in the weeks to come. But I believe longtime readers of Dividend Cafe know that I believe a properly constructed asset allocation is supposed to account for the inevitability of, well, distress. It could be geopolitical, or medical, or monetary, or economic, but distress is not new – only the specific reasons for the various particular distresses that come at different times. Today we are going to look at the reality of addressing distress in one’s portfolio through asset allocation – what it means in the current moment, how some elements of this have changed, and why it hasn’t stopped mattering.
I wouldn’t say this is a specifically Ukraine-focused Dividend Cafe, but I would say that it may feel like it if it is understood correctly. We hold principles for the purpose of applying them during times of distress. The Ukraine event is a time of distress. Today’s Dividend Cafe is about the principles that exist before, during, and after such.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I have pretty much written each Friday’s Dividend Cafe on the Friday morning of the day you receive it every single week for over a year now. If there is an exception to that over the last 12+ months I do not remember it. I used to write the Dividend Cafe in bits and pieces throughout the week and then “pull it all together” on Friday mornings, but a little over a year ago I changed my approach and I have been happy with the results.
Well, this week taking advantage of the Monday holiday and some extra peace and quiet in the very early morning hours of a day that the market was closed, I wrote what would maybe be half of a Dividend Cafe on the subject of capital, liquidity, and interest rates. I loved where it was going and felt it was a good base for a needed Dividend Cafe on a crucial subject at this point in time.
And yet, here I am on a Friday morning, with images of Russian rockets striking all over the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on my television set, and I am not even opening the draft of that work from Monday morning. Yes, I will be able to use it next week (or at some future date), but this is certainly one of those rare weeks where Dividend Cafe warrants a nod to current events.
Markets have experienced volatility in the build-up to events of this week and in the events themselves, though I would argue it has been much less volatile than I would have expected. The mere presence of market volatility is not the reason to devote a Dividend Cafe to this week’s subject. I don’t much care about market volatility other than the frustration I feel when we don’t get enough of it.
So welcome to a Dividend Cafe devoted to Russia/Ukraine, and may your investor knowledge and appreciation of global affairs grow as a result. To that end we work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
There was plenty of talk about Russia/Ukraine in DC Today this week as well in the unreliable news cycle, and there really isn’t any “new news” to report. I am not sure we will be talking about Russia/Ukraine in six months, but I am very sure we will be talking about inflation, the Fed, and interest rates in six months. I want to do my best to make those six months (and more) of conversations be as worthwhile as possible.
The Dividend Cafe is here to help that effort.
We are going to look at what some of the right questions are to ask today and let it go from there. I believe this discussion will give you some better information then you might find elsewhere, but it also puts me out on a limb with some actual forecasts. The very concept of forecasting bothers me, usually because those who do it are charlatans and grifters. But I have nothing to gain in these forecasts; rather I am trying to point us towards a context and understanding that will likely not prove exactly right in the details, but I think more helpful than thinking about 2021’s battles during 2023’s war.
Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Long-time readers know that I have strong opinions about the Fed, about monetary policy, about its relevance to economic conditions, and of course about its implications for investment decision-making.
Today we have enough misinformation out there about the Fed that it may be a chance to actually use that word appropriately. And this misinformation comes in a period of elevated interest. The stakes are high.
This week in the Dividend Cafe we are going to see if we can’t make more sense of what the risks are and are not around current Fed actions. And in so doing it will allow us (force us?) to touch on a handful of peripheral subjects that matter. It’s an easy read, digestible, and actionable.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We are living in interesting times for equity investors, and I have no reason to believe those times will get any less interesting any time soon.
But one thing I would love for clients of The Bahnsen Group, and to a lesser extent, all readers of the Dividend Cafe is for there to be an understanding of what equity investors are really after. We all know “buy low, sell high” – and I even wrote a book once on how I think investors ultimately best monetize their participation in the stock market.
But I think a little more understanding of what one is paying for when one buys a stock may be useful (which of course, also implies a definition for what they are selling when they sell one). And if I do this right, maybe, just maybe, we will gain a better understanding of how to navigate the next phase of markets. To that end, we work.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I understand it may seem odd to devote a Dividend Cafe to the particular subject of the Energy sector in a week of surreal market volatility and media obsession over the Fed. But in fairness, I write about the Fed almost every week, plus four days a week in The DC Today, and the entire subject of monetary theory underlies all that we do in capital allocation at The Bahnsen Group. Our nuanced views on the role the Fed currently has in financial markets are known, and to co-opt my planned Dividend Cafe subject yet again to cover the thrilling story of the Fed moving interest rates exactly how we knew they would, is not going to happen.
But the Fed was not the only story (non-story) this week. Markets are in a pattern of daily incoherence as traders, algorithms, novice investors, speculators, and other such inconveniences work through the challenges of a paradigm shift. What the futures say at night has nothing to do with what they will say in the morning which has nothing to do with what they will say at the open which is fully disconnected from intra-day activity which then leads to a totally unpredictable market close. Then, rinse and repeat.
So I’ve written about our low opinion of “shiny object” investing, and the avoidance of such has a lot to do with the way our January has (thus far!!??) gone. But the energy sector is up +18% this month as of press time in a YTD market that has a Nasdaq down -15% and S&P 500 down -10%. We need to look at that. Is Energy becoming a new “shiny object”? Is the sector a trade or a long-term opportunity? What aspects of energy investing appeal to us right now? Where do environmental, political, and macroeconomic concerns fit in? These subjects all deserve their own Dividend Cafe, and that day is today.
So jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I telegraphed last week a special Dividend Cafe on energy today, and I reiterated that plan several times in DC Today this last week. But as I began pulling it all together in my hotel room here in Washington D.C. at 4:00 this morning, it occurred to me that we appear to be living through a market doing much of what I have been talking about for a very long time, and that I have an obligation to make Dividend Cafe as current and relevant as possible. The treatment on the Energy sector I want to present must be written, but it can wait one more week. That topic is no less significant, but from a timeliness standpoint, the market events of the week (and really of all 2022 thus far) provide a golden opportunity to reinforce some more practical investment lessons right now.
As a general rule I do not like the idea of making Dividend Cafe a weekly response to headlines or market circumstances, and have mostly avoided doing so for quite some time now. But this week’s Dividend Cafe is not a mere “this week in markets” play. Rather, I want to use the obviously predominant story in financial markets to illuminate a few key elements of our thinking at The Bahnsen Group. In other words, the inspiration is some current market action, but the lesson is far, far more evergreen.
And I think it is going to really surprise you.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
2022 is just two weeks underway, other people are joining me in no longer saying Happy New Year, the NFL playoffs are finally starting (a week later than ever before), and the college football champion has been declared. Coming into the new year was the time to forecast what we expected for the year – but now, we are actually in it.
And speaking of those forecasts, I will keep the white paper in front of you here. But I think we are due for a little update on a few big macro issues, so update you we will. From the glorious spot of the 2022 TBG offsite where our entire team has spent the last day and a half meticulously working on improving our business (in some really significant ways, I will add), today’s Dividend Cafe covers a lot of bases.
I have written ad nauseum about the fact that much of what we discuss when we discuss macroeconomic outlook is really about the state of debt in our economy. Much of what we think and ponder about the Fed comes down to debt considerations. There is much to evaluate on the periphery, but debt levels sit at the middle of a lot of these peripheral concerns, and I will tell you that I am seeing more and more people make truly faulty assumptions that I believe are headed to a bad place.
This is a topic that will illuminate and inform your understanding of many things, and the only place I know to do it is in the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Tech Reckoning
- Sector Positioning for 2022 (Tech, Energy)
- Tax implications for 2022
- Inflation in 2022
- Dividend growth investing in 2022
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
CIO and Managing Partner - David L. Bahnsen Deputy Managing Partner - Brian Szytel Deputy CIO and COO - Deiya Pernas
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Markets followed up their monstrous week by dropping a bit to start this week, then rallying back to even mid-week, to sit somewhere between flat on the week and down ~100 points or so as I prepare to go to press.
The Nasdaq, though, didn’t fare so well on the week, dropping -600 points (-4%) as of press time and warranting a distinction in this week’s Dividend Cafe on how one may want to think about their assets in the Fed regime ahead.
This one week aside, and the never-ending obsession with the Federal Reserve well-baked into our societal financial fabric, there is a lot to say about a changing of the guard at the Fed, and this week’s Dividend Cafe is devoted to just that. Some things are, no doubt, changing, but other things, as you will soon see, are not changing at all. Understanding all this may be the best Christmas gift I can offer you this glorious holiday season.
Slide down the chimney into this week’s Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
As I type on Friday morning well before the market will open for the day, the Dow is up ~1,200 points on the week, basically right back to where it was the day before the Omicron news and market sell-off, and the futures are pointing upwards for today as well (of course, anything can happen on that front).
A week ago, I devoted the Dividend Cafe to discussing why I felt the Omicron story was a bad joke of a market mover, and we walked through a little COVID Market history. But I didn’t end on a sanguine note – I reminded you that there are vulnerabilities in the markets and that chief among them was the anti-fragilities created by excessive monetary interventions, and of course, basic valuation concerns where some euphoria may be overflowing.
Today we’ll leave Omicron in the rearview mirror where it belongs and where the media has conveniently left it just 10 days or so after dramatically different assertions. But we’ll dig deeper into a couple of things that warrant our understanding – an understanding that is not the same as concern or worry.
Come on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Volatility
- The Fed
- Energy
- Omicron Variant
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It has been a wild week in the markets, with the -900 point drop of last Friday (Thanksgiving weekend) followed by a +235 point gain Monday, a -650 point drop on Tuesday, a -460 point drop Wednesday (after being up +500 points earlier in the day), and then a +620 point increase Thursday. As I type Friday, we are down -120 points, having been up +160 points earlier, so currently (at press time) reflecting a -330 point drop on the week. Now that’s a lot of ups and downs for -330 points, don’t you think?
But market ups and downs are not a problem for real investors, so why do I mention this volatility at all? Don’t people invested in the stock market (and more specifically, in the earnings streams of the great companies that make up the market) know that markets do this, and in fact, normally experience much more volatility than we have seen this year?
I would hope so. I know our clients do (how could they not?). But the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe is not the mere reality of market volatility, especially when such volatility is a mere 3% or so off of market highs. I mean, really. No, the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe is those who may be unfazed by market valuations and euphoric concerns, but go hysterical over the omicron variant.
In other words, we want to look at that which does not play into our thinking, and that which does, and why we think the media and so much general investor consciousness have their fears and non-fears exactly backward.
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. It will be worth your time.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I know it is not the edition some of you look forward to most each year, devoid of such enticing topics as monetary policy and market valuations, but it is one I genuinely enjoy writing each year. Today’s Dividend Cafe captures some Thanksgiving reflections from yours truly, the author of each week’s Dividend Cafe but also the Founder and Managing Partner of this firm. I remain in a daily state of overwhelming gratitude for so, so much, that this Dividend Cafe Thanksgiving reflection is just a cake walk to write.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week I did something a little unique. I dedicate the Dividend Cafe to the topics du jour in the space of prices, labor, production, and the Fed – basically, all the stuff everyone is talking about (and should be talking about). But rather than it seeming like a single, monolithic essay on it all, I think I have it broken up into bite-sized pieces that will be easier to understand and take in.
We live in interesting times, and if this week’s Dividend Cafe helps you to understand these times better than you did before reading it, I will be a happy man. Let’s dive in and see if that happens.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market movers and shakers discussed in today's episode.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
There is a lot of anxiety in the economy right now even though the unemployment rate is incredibly low, and nearly every metric on the planet is looking good (besides elevated price indexes). We went month after month last year with people telling us (and many of them seemed to really, really enjoy saying so, mostly because they are awful human beings) that no one would ever shop again, fly again, or “demand” again. The consumption side of the economy was dead behind a brutal pandemic, they said. And we would all be wise to stop paying our office leases, buy some comfortable couch clothes, order food delivery, get an exercise bike delivered, and sit around the house binge-watching TV and just waiting for it all to end.
But now the tune has changed, a lot. Not that drama and intensity – that is the exact same. It’s just the culprit is now the opposite. Now things are too hot, too much activity, too much demand, and prices are too high. That we are supposed to take advice now from the people who zealously told us the opposite 12-18 months ago is odd to me.
But I digress. Pricing pressures exist in the economy and when folks are not talking about Congressional legislation or Fed policy, they are rightly focused on that. Today I want to explain why they are focused on the right thing (price inflation), but for the wrong reason, and more importantly, with the wrong solution. And yes, with an eye towards the right conclusion in your portfolio.
Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Most of the attention in the markets this week was on the Fed’s announcements Wednesday – (a) That interest rates aren’t being changed any time soon, and (b) the quantitative easing program launched 20 months ago will start to be slowly eased back later this month with a goal of no additional bond purchases in roughly nine months).
But very little attention is ever paid to why these policies exist, and what their impact is to the various things we investors care about.
In the Dividend Cafe today, we will look at the state of monetary policy, the fiscal policy that has necessitated it (yes, those two things are married right now), and what investment lessons we can extract.
Earnings season is preparing to wrap and it was a solid one. Congress is continuing to bat around legislative things that have not gone the way most people anticipated (or even close). There was huge election news this week that speak to the current political landscape. And yet through it all, the major investment story of the week may be the one least discussed.
Come on in to the Dividend Cafe.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's call focuses on the latest in financial markets and the reconciliation bill. DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I wrote last week about a small amount of rather large economic principles that are too often forgotten in contemporary thought, and in many cases were never learned in today’s financial advisory community. I promised a part II this week where we focused more on the application of these principles, and there is no way I would disappoint you after that powerful cliffhanger.
I will point out before we dive into the Dividend Cafe that I hosted a fireside chat with Bahnsen Group economic and policy advisor, Larry Kudlow, this week. You can find that whole video replay on our website if you are so inclined.
Today’s Dividend Cafe is short and sweet but does focus entirely on the promised mission – putting into practice for investors what the theories of economic wisdom look like. Off we go …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Dividend Cafe dives into some of the great economic principles one has to learn if they are to ever learn anything about economics and finds a comparison with the great investing principle of all time. I hope I will connect the dots well for you.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I loved writing the Dividend Cafe for many years with a “jump around” approach, basically covering a wide array of topics that would enter my orbit of interest each week. I made a decision late last year to start writing “single topic” and to write the entire thing in “one sitting” – basically Friday mornings – so as to make it a more coherent and cohesive read. I do like it better that way, and the feedback I have gotten suggests you do too.
Today is a little old school, which happens every once in a while when no singular topic is inspiring me. There are a number of things I want to look at today, from the Value/Growth discussion to the impact of debt on the economy to so much more. I did write it all in “one sitting” (yes, Friday morning – I am a serious creature of habit), but it covers a handful of different topics that entered my world this morning from a plethora of inspirations.
So off we go into the Dividend Cafe, a read that will be well worth your while.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The effort to meet face to face with leading money managers, hedge funds, macroeconomic analysts, and other such “life of the party” luminaries began in 2006. Of course, back then I was overseeing just $100 million of client assets and busily deciding if I was going to move my business at UBS to either Bear Stearns or to Morgan Stanley (yes, that was a real dilemma I once faced; I’d say the angels aided me in my decision). But I had very limited access, basically no clout, and asset management firms that were perplexed by an advisor’s desire to do such intense due diligence.
“Your firm has told you these managers are good. Isn’t that good enough?”
“Your firm likes our fund. Why do you need to meet the managers?”
My stubborn insistence on actually creating my own process, on doing much deeper dives than the average advisor does, paid off in big ways for me. But I quickly found out that the “payoff” was not merely in how I was able to better vet products and solutions used on behalf of my clients. These meetings became a source of transformative learning for me in my career as an investment professional.
This week’s Dividend Cafe is not about the trip down memory lane, unless by memory lane you mean the last five days. But Brian Szytel and Deiya Pernas have once again joined me for over a dozen face-to-face meetings with stellar investment professionals, and we do so in a time where great questions exist about the current market cycle. About geopolitics. About China. About the Fed. About risk asset valuations. About societal stability.
So jump on into this week’s Dividend Cafe, and get a glimpse into what we learned this week. The results may or may not shock you, but they will not bore you.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week’s Dividend Cafe does cover a lot of topics, but all through the prism of looking at the recent past as well as the pending future. I think you’ll find it an interesting historical journey and, even more so, a good analysis of so many investment and market realities.
The market enjoyed a little roller coaster this week, and I also dive into some lessons from that. I think a lot of stuff that gets covered in Dividend Cafe may mean nothing to some readers. It all means something to me, but different readers may find different topics with varying levels of application and interest. But the one universal – the one thing I constantly pray will come through in the pages of Dividend Cafe – is the primacy of behavior. My unpacking of matters monetary policy, valuations, economic growth, profit trajectories, market history, alternative investments, and all those things – none of them – not a single one – will ever trump the underlying thing I most care about for investors: Their own behavior.
Some bad things happened this week – for those who behaved badly. Nothing terrible happened this week – for those who behaved well. That is more or less a dual truism that I could repeat every single week.
In the meantime, let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
As I have teed up all week, I am devoting today’s Dividend Cafe to the takeaways from this week’s SALT Conference here in New York City.
The quick qualifier I will offer is that this is not going to be a boring recap of all the speakers, all the events, and all the things that you don’t care about. I did not attend the Chainsmokers concert on Tuesday night, and I did not attend the luncheon address from Paris Hilton on Wednesday, either. In the ten years I have attended the event in Las Vegas I don’t think I ever got a concert either, despite such names as Lenny Kravitz, Duran Duran, Train, One Republic, and The Killers performing. I did attend past luncheons with Dennis Miller, Magic Johnson, Coach K, and the now late Kobe Bryant. In fact, that lunch event with Kobe Bryant started a domino train that led to me doing a real estate transaction with Kobe – but I will save that story for another day.
But as much as they have always done to make this a pretty fun event with a powerful complement of entertainment to the symposium of content, whether in Las Vegas or now this year in New York City, there is nothing that they can do to make me a fun person. I absolutely love the speakers, and for the last two events, I have been honored to be a speaker myself.
But whether or not you care about this conference, I believe there are some takeaways from the event this year that are going to make this a meaty and substantive Dividend Cafe. So read on, and I promise I won’t let you down.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I am typing this week’s Dividend Cafe from 30,000 feet very late at night on Thursday night/Friday morning, after spending four and a half hours on the plane, on the runway, alongside 100+ other planes that were unable to take off as airspace was closed for Kamala Harris' visit to the LA area (campaigning with Gavin Newsom against the recall). My wife and I will land in Nashville in the middle of the night, and we will forget this experience soon (I hope). Anyone who travels a lot has had bad experiences. I travel 50x a year and have been through everything, but as a percentage of the times I fly, I have had it easy over the last 25 years. It’s never fun, but it happens.
But twenty years ago Joleen and I were also flying together, this time departing LAX for a Tahitian honeymoon. As I mentioned the other day Joleen and I celebrated twenty years of marriage this week. On September 10, 2001, we left LAX on a redeye with a planned landing in Tahiti in the early morning. One hour before we landed the most horrific act in American history took place. It is that event that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.
Sure, there are some personal reflections and musings. But there really is a market lesson in all of this, and I hope you will find this to be meaty enough for your normal Dividend Cafe longings. Truth be told, the rather basic message I have to share for investors on this 20th anniversary of 9/11 is more significant in practical terms than any commentary I have ever written about monetary policy or capital allocation.
I will forget the wait of today, but I will never forget 9/11. Let’s jump in.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I have been surprised by the level of interest in my treatment of the “China investment” subject in recent weeks. I kicked things off at the beginning of August with this piece, presenting the background around the tensions between U.S. investment in Chinese equity vs. Chinese fixed income. I followed up with this piece making the case that the Chinese perception of U.S. global economic intentions (primarily around our use of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency to facilitate large twin deficits) is at the heart of Chinese beliefs and agendas with their own currency.
None of this has been for the purpose of mere armchair theorizing or navel-gazing. While high level takeaways in the discussion of China’s place on the global economic stage can be interesting and even provocative, our agenda is investment-specific. We may or may not have an investment thesis to act upon around Chinese financial markets. And we certainly believe the entire discussion is highly relevant for all investors in terms of how the geopolitical and monetary components play themselves out.
This week I bring in some reinforcements. Louis Gave of Gavekal Research, one of the foremost economists in the world when it comes to China, Hong Kong, the Pacific Rim, and global fiscal dynamics joins me for a podcast/video discussion on this entire subject. His own views help shine a light on what the fundamental question is we must answer. I will leave you in suspense as to what that is.
Once again, all free people can conclude different things about these subjects. But choosing to ignore the entire topic is not an option. History is being made right before our eyes, and our portfolios are asking us to understand it. To that end we work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I was going to use this week’s Dividend Cafe to continue the discussion on China, one that I more exhaustively began three weeks ago, then expanded upon last week. And in fact, I have done a podcast interview with Louis Gave of Gavekal Research on this very topic, poking him and pushing him around his thesis that China’s strategic objectives in their bond market and currency are aligned with the objectives of U.S. investors. But I am going to hold this for next week, first of all, to give my communications team time to properly curate and edit that interview, but also because I believe there is a more timely message that is needed this week.
By the time you are reading this, I presume Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will have given his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I am very purposely writing this before such a speech has been delivered or pre-speech teasers on its content have been circulated. I am, therefore, obviously writing it before I know the market reaction to the speech (stock or bond market).
This is on purpose. I do not want the focus to be on what is or is not said at Jackson Hole today, or what the market does or does not do after such speech.
I want Dividend Cafe to be about the extraordinary problem that we even care about so much, to begin with about this speech. Far more than anything that is said today is the fact that there even is such a focus on it to begin with. And this hype, this prioritization, this captivation in financial markets, with one man giving one speech on one day, is symbolic of where I feel so much has gone wrong.
And what THAT is and what it specifically means to you is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I got a lot of feedback on the special “China edition” Dividend Cafe two weeks ago, but I promised a lot more to come on the subject, and that is what we have today. I don’t only want to walk through various perspectives on Chinese investment, but really want to make sense of what much of this means for hemispheric changes taking place in global monetary realities. There is a tremendous investment relevance to all of this, and that will be just as true for anyone who never buys a dollar of Chinese stocks, bonds, or currency. We ignore this topic to our own peril.
It has been a historical week in a lot of ways, and I have written about Afghanistan and its potential impact on American domestic policy throughout the week at The DC Today. We will know more next week about the sausage-making on capitol hill. Market volatility this week was largely Fed-driven and seasonal. I don’t believe the events in Afghanistan this week will be remembered by markets for minutes, but I believe they will be remembered globally for decades.
And globally, we have much to consider if we are to be smart investors. So to that end, we work …
Join me in the Dividend Cafe (where as a special bonus today, some pretty hardcore facts about dividend growth superiority will be presented).
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Join David L. Bahnsen, CIO and Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates with answers the important questions from investors.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
David, Brian, and Deiya take on the investment needs of the day for clients of The Bahnsen Group.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We are going to do something unique this week – a deep dive into the massive country that is China. From stocks to bonds to history to currency to geopolitics, this is a big topic, and we do it this week with the sole aim of determining where there may be investment opportunity for our clients, and where there may not be.
It is a topic that reveals deep passions and emotions out of many people. Our goal is to remove passion and emotion, and be fiduciary investment managers with a burden for optimizing solutions on behalf of our clients. This has serious implications when you look at Chinese stocks, or U.S. bonds.
I could make this introduction a full article if I wanted to, but let me resist the temptation to keep bloviating and ask you to dive right in. I believe it is a thought-provoking and useful summary of a few investment considerations in the fastest growing economic region in human history. And we want to get this right.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the latest market happenings
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I have been thinking a lot about the stock market lately, but not for the reasons most people think about it. The most common thing people wonder about the stock market is something like this: “Is the market about to go up, or down?” I think long-time readers of the Dividend Cafe know how I feel about that question (“long-time” could mean the last two weeks in this case).
I am always and forever agnostic about short-term moves in the broad stock market, not merely around anyone’s (including my own) ability to forecast such, but also around the relevance of it to one’s actual financial picture.
But I hear things said about the stock market sometimes that simply concern me. I am going to address a lot of those things this week and look at some basic historical facts of the market and the environment in which we find ourselves. My goal will be to look at what does not represent a “rough” or “troubling” market environment, and what does.
And in so doing, I hope we can find some takeaways about portfolio construction that speak to a present application that you will find useful.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I do something a little different in this week’s Dividend Cafe – I cover three topics, and pretty separate ones from one another at that. In my mind they are all connected – but lots of things are connected in my mind that may not make sense to others.
In this case, I see them as distinct topics yet connected in the sense that they all are part of our investment worldview at The Bahnsen Group. The challenges to dividend growth in index investing, the particulars around the Energy sector in 2021, and the inconvenient truths about bitcoin – these are three separate topics, but they are all topics we have thoroughly developed beliefs about, beliefs that are an off-shoot of our foundation.
And we dive into some COVID stuff that is alone worth the price of admission – chart-filled and everything!
So view it as one topic with over-arching connectivity, or a three separate topic week, but either way, this is a Dividend Cafe you will be glad you read.
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Hosted by David L. Bahnsen, Founder, Managing Partner, and CIO of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Communications.
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Like most of you, before the financial crisis, I had never heard the term or uttered the term “quantitative easing.” This somehow becomes completely standard fare in the lexicon of finance in the last 13 years, and it is now uttered by people who I am 1,000% positive do not know what it is dozens of times per day in the media. There is nothing wrong with not understanding the obscure vocabulary of monetary economics unless of course, you are sitting around using the obscure vocabulary of monetary economics. But words have meaning, and today we’ll look at some of these words.
But we will do more than define words today. After all, you deserve to get your money’s worth for what you pay for this Dividend Cafe subscription!
My goal today is to walk you through the history of quantitative easing, explain what policy goal it is serving, what policy goals it is not serving, and what it means to you as an investor. By the time you are done with this read, I believe you will be a QE expert. And I assure you, as a fellow QE expert, nothing makes you more popular at parties than knowing the deep dive of quantitative easing! It’s a good thing I’m married …
Okay, QE and why you should care, in this week’s Dividend Cafe!
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Today I am going to do something an investment manager who writes about investing all the time ought to do more – I am going to talk about the market.
Now maybe you think I do that all the time, and you’d be right. But truth be told, my investment writing is very purposely peppered with the stuff I think most matters to investors – behavioral practices, monetary policy, evergreen principles, foundational truths. The markets are to be found in and through all of it, but in Dividend Cafe, I rarely am just saying, “Hey, here’s the skinny on the stock market.” I do plenty of that day by day in the DC Today.
What I want to do in the Dividend Cafe today is just look at the overall stock market – why we feel the way we do about it, why most people offering a short-term point of view are totally full of it, and how we view the present environment. I believe you will find these insights counter-cultural, and that ought to pique your interest.
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I have always had a sort of unfair pet peeve with people talking about time moving either too fast or too slow. I think what I hate is the thoughtlessness of it – the sort of expected cliche when someone says, “wow, this year has flown by.” For one thing, it can’t possibly feel that way for everybody, yet it seems like everybody says it. Plus, it often times is just patently false – what people say they feel is the opposite of how I feel, and therefore I assume they must be wrong. I know, I know, but I already said it was unfair.
The first half of 2021 did not “zoom by” and it also has not “dragged on” – for me. There are moments I can look back on and say “that feels like it was years ago” and there are other moments (perhaps more of these) that I do feel came and went quickly. At the end of the day, the holidays and the turn of the year were about six months ago. That much I know is true.
As I do every year, I wrote a lengthy white paper between Christmas and the New Year to recap last year and to lay out our themes and perspectives for this year ahead. I prefer to wait for the next six months to do a deeper dive there, but I will check in this week on some of those perspectives.
But primarily what I want to do in this week’s Dividend Cafe is give you a look at what has transpired so far this calendar year, and why. Accurately knowing what happened in financial markets is useful – and not to be taken for granted (remember, “what you know that just ain’t so” can be dangerous stuff). But I really want to explain today why things have played out how they have, and from there offer up a viewpoint on the future.
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
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David and Scott discuss the market matters of the day
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The weird week in the markets doesn't change what I want to be doing with each Dividend Cafe. As of press time, the market is up ~1,000 points on the week, with pre-market futures on this Friday pointing to a +100 point open. The day-to-day and week-by-week movements in the market are not the subject of the Dividend Cafe, but they are what we do each Monday through Thursday at The DC Today.
This week it is tempting to dive more into the cluster of these infrastructure talks. On Thursday, there was a White House briefing that it was a done deal; on Friday, it appears to be falling apart; I can write about all this now, but I think by the time it hits your inbox, the deal may be back on, and by the time you are done reading it back off.
Yet, in these "current events," there is, indeed, a "timeless principle" that warrants immediate application. A week ago, markets were experiencing nearly irrelevant levels of volatility - and the media declared it the new apocalypse as they went about drooling on themselves in a sea of inaccuracies about what the Fed did, said, and meant. A week later, markets have been rallying, and the new question is what to do about "investing at the top" (it is "new" in that the last time I heard this concern, was almost three weeks ago).
So I want to dive this week into some fun history, some actionable application out of that history, and leave you with some crucial reminders about markets. These things will be useful whether the market is down a thousand or up a thousand next week.
Come on into the Dividend Cafe ...
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We had an interesting week in financial markets … The Fed did exactly what they were expected to by any reasonable person – nothing more, nothing less. They acknowledged the economy is improving, they said they were “talking about talking about” slowing down their quantitative easing. And they indicated two years from now as a time where the fed funds rate may be 50 basis points higher than it is now (may it be so).
And that was it. No actions, policies, or steps. No commitments, promises, or assurances. Just loose language around some policy measures that are (a) Brutally obvious, (b) Not remotely hawkish, and (c) Not nearly enough if the conditions people are saying they are worried about are actually present.
So how did people respond? After three months of people saying “inflation is here” and the “Fed must act” – what happened?
Commodities got hammered, and the yield curve flattened more than it has in ages.
You can’t make this stuff up.
But rather than re-hash what I think the Fed will do, or what they should do, or what is going on in the inflation ad nauseum discussions, I think this week’s Dividend Cafe needs to better unpack what the real, actual, accurate under-current is to all of this.
More or less, every single topic being discussed right now has as its true foundation the reality of debt. The accumulation of debt. Concerns about debt. Plans for more debt. Questions about servicing of debt. The promise of debt. The fear of debt. The cost of debt. For a four-letter word where 25% of its letters are actually silent, this is a pretty potent word in 2021 economics.
And it is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Let’s dive in.
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With the key market insights of the season, David L. Bahnsen takes questions from the public. Hosted by Scott Gamm of Strategy Associates.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We had a reasonably boring week in the markets (as of press time, which is after the market open on Friday, the Dow is modestly down on the week but no up or down day this week was particularly significant), but it was somewhat less boring in economic news.
What I want to do today is look at the variety of economic news circulating and apply a market perspective to it. My view is very simple as to the dangers around most conventional methods of receiving that news and most conventional methods of applying that news to investment practices: The news itself is prone to sensationalism, and the application of the news is prone to over-reactionism.
Put differently, the incentive structure behind how most people receive their news is flawed (and in this case, I am talking about economic news, but my statements here are true in all forms of news). And the incentive structure in how investment applications are delivered is substantially flawed, not to mention divorced from personal financial reality.
I unpack all of that this week, and do a look at the current news, and provide wise investment applications for you - within our framework - where the incentives are right, the temperature is moderate, the perspective is sober, and the culture is fiduciary.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
For now (even from my spot out of the country), I do keep my weekly streak alive with the Dividend Cafe. Going back to the week of Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008 I have missed just one weekly commentary, and this weekly podcast really is one of the things I love most about my job.
Today’s may be a little shorter than normal, and it is primarily Fed-oriented, but I am quite happy with some of the subject matter covered and hope you find it simple, readable, and useful.
If it turns out that this week’s Dividend Cafe speaks to you more than normal, perhaps I will have to open an office in the spot I have recorded it so that the magic can be repeated.
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There is no shortage of investment symposiums to attend in my business. Whether it be events put on by the big firms I have worked for over the years (UBS, Morgan Stanley), or symposiums sponsored by various money managers and asset management firms, or just independent groups putting on their own show, I am quite sure I have attended over a hundred such events in the last two decades or so, and probably spoken at a couple of dozen myself. While there is always something to be learned at every event, some are surely better than others. The quality of the events, the quality of the speakers, and the candor of the speakers in the message they deliver can vary a great deal.
I consider myself an incorrigible consumer of information and perspective and have been obsessed with growing my capacity for investment and economic thought since the turn of the century. These events can be a waste, or they can be utterly thought-provoking or somewhere in between. One develops an instinct over the years for which events and organizations and speakers will be worthwhile and which will not. And this brings me to the subject of this week’s Dividend Café …
I have already revealed where I am going with this the last couple of weeks, so there’s no need to hide the ball. The Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference took place (virtually) in mid-May, and it most certainly represents one of the truly spectacular conferences I have ever been a part of in terms of content, speaker quality, and diversity of thought. I chose to turn my major takeaways from the conference into a Dividend Café because I basically think Dividend Café exists for me to share what is most on my mind with our clients … And I assure you these takeaways from the conference are what is taking up most of my headspace these days.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I thought I would do something really fun with this week’s Dividend Cafe, but just as soon as I typed that I realized that, like beauty, fun is in the eye of the beholder. But what “fun” thing I was going to do was write a full recap of the recent Mauldin Strategic Investor Conference that took place from May 5 through May 14, and use that recap to capture some of the profoundly important takeaways that I want to share with readers of the Dividend Cafe.
However, for that to be “fun” for me I need to do it thoroughly, and this week was a hysterically insane week here in the California office between projects, portfolio work, client meetings, morning research, DC Today, and all the normal things. I also got inspired by another few things this morning, and so I am going to call an audible and use next week’s Dividend Cafe as my Mauldin SIC recap, and use this week’s for a whole different kind of fun.
Now, I kind of lied. I said that I was saving my Mauldin SIC recap for next week (and I am). But the truth is that some of the things I get into this week are itches that were somewhat scratched at the conference. So consider this a tease into next week, and I promise I will make it all worthwhile next week.
I disagree with a lot of what I heard at the conference. I agreed with a lot more. Anyone who agrees with everything that everyone says is a compass-less fool. But that conference did for me what I earnestly want the Dividend Cafe to do for you every single week – foster thought and consideration.
The conclusions that come out of that? Well, to that end we work.
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David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm discuss the market happenings of the day.
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Anyone who knows me personally knows that I loathe melodrama. And hopefully, anyone who has followed my writing for any period of time, especially my financial writing, knows that I hate click-bait, hype, exaggeration, dramatic hyperbole, shock and awe, and other such media-friendly tactics designed to scare, provoke, or just plain manipulate us.
I believe almost every day I am writing The DC Today is a boring day in the grand scheme of things. Markets may be up or down a lot on a given day, but as a goals-based investment advisor, with a few exceptions, those day-to-day movements in markets are almost entirely irrelevant. Some days have legitimate policy news, and every day has some aspect of economic information or perspective (Fed, housing, COVID, energy, etc.) that I genuinely love sharing. But it would take a lot for one of my daily investment pieces to warrant some kind of a, “not this is a day that changed history!”
This week saw the highest levels of market volatility we have seen all year. It was primarily in high tech and small-cap and more growthy/saucy parts of the market, but the Dow had a couple of big down days, Japan got whacked, and it was the kind of day where financial TV media ratings are up 40% or so from the norm.
And I am of the belief that this was a big, profound, and potentially impactful and historic week. At least, I think it will prove to be.
I just don’t think the bigness of this week had anything to do with market volatility. I don’t think it had anything to do with tech, with the Nasdaq, with Japan, with the CPI number, with bond yields, or anything else in that vein.
So what do I mean? Why am I being “dramatic”? And what does it mean for you as an investor?
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe … (and no, this is not melodrama or clickbait; I am just out of room in my intro letter) … =)
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
One of the questions I get asked the most is, “what scares you right now?” Clients ask it every now and then, or some version of it, but I also get asked in various TV interviews that ever-so-compelling question, “what keeps you up at night?” There is one particular problem with the question I want to address in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and I want to provide a really thorough answer to it.
What is the problem with the question, “what is keeping you up at night?”
The problem is that the real question the person asking means to ask is, “do you think the market could go down?”
It’s a dishonest question, but probably not intentionally so. It’s a couched way of basically asking something reasonably worthless and unhelpful. Why is it worthless and unhelpful? Because the market can always go down, and anyone asking the question knows it, or anyone invested in the market ought to know it.
But, but, but you say – aren’t there times where it is extra super-duper extra likely to go down? And wouldn’t that have you worried? The answer to those two questions is, “of course not, other than in hindsight,” and “not at all.”
But, but, but, I say – if one ever just asked the question, “are there macroeconomic conditions that bother you, that you really dislike, that even though they don’t foolishly lead you into market timing or false prophesy or clickbait dis-ingenuity, you really are troubled by?”
Well, that question I can answer, and I will …
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Latest market updates and news from David L. Bahnsen of The Bahnsen Group
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Tell me what you think about these two statements:
(1) Markets are dynamic, ever-changing forces. They are never predictable, their outcomes are never assured, the inputs are constantly adjusting with the ebbs and flows of different circumstances and facts that have to be monitored, studied, and adjusted as needed.
(2) There is nothing new under the sun.
I believe these two statements are both true, and I believe that the apparent contradiction between the two actually represents one of the great challenges and obligations for professional investment managers. And that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.
We live in interesting times. We live in unpredictable times. And we live in times that offer a milieu of circumstances which combine the novel with the redundant. And for all of the uncertainty about the future and the debate in the present, there does exist a past that can, at a bare minimum, help inform us in the present and in our preparations for the future.
The “new” must be informed by the “old.” And that is what we are going to discuss in the Dividend Cafe today.
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This week’s Dividend Cafe took a funny twist over the last 24 hours.
First, I ended up flying back to California from New York late Thursday night for a Friday matter that came up (I was supposed to fly to California on Sunday). This substantially altered my reading and writing plans for this commentary, along with work issues. On Thursday the market had a little reaction to the shocking – shocking – news that the Biden administration was looking to raise capital gain taxes on high-income brackets. I say “shocking” because it had been, well, you know, on their campaign website all of last year, and discussed and mentioned 37 times since his inauguration. And because nothing in the announcement came with Bernie Sanders replacing Joe Manchin in West Virginia or Elizabeth Warren replacing Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.
And by the way, as of press time Friday morning, the market is down a whopping ~150 points on the week – a rounding error – after a few up days and down days mostly offset each other this week.
Still, though, the cap gain tax issue does matter, so I wanted to address it this week along with a few other things that seem to be a source of worry right now for many investors.
But you can’t spell “investor” without “t” and I found that out the hard way when I arrived at JFK’s Admirals Club yesterday and the “t” button on my keyboard was not working. I had a DC Today to finish, and ambitious plans for 5+ hours of work on a cross-country flight. Well, I did all I could, but just so you know, a lot of words in the English language have “t” in them – a lot. And doing a “Ctrl-C” and “Ctrl-V” for all your T’s is enough to make someone want to ask for the bartender (I don’t drink, so had to settle for my typing productivity being, well, diminished).
But the use of an iPad Bluetooth keyboard, a munted attempt with the munted keyboard, my desktop at my California office, and a brand new Surface Pro laptop I had overnight shipped the second I discovered the trouble have all coalesced together to make this Dividend Cafe possible. And to think my dad wrote 500-page books on a typewriter!!!
Jump on into the Dividend Cafe!
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Replay of our National video call, April 19, 2021, covering the market performance, energy, and potential changes to the tax code.
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This week’s Dividend Cafe is going to dive into the “abnormalcy” of the economic contraction during COVID, the abnormalcy of the economic recovery we are currently in (and will be in for months to come), but then also the “normalcy” of pre-pandemic economic life, and what that means on the other side of this. I will humbly suggest that despite the changes in the economic landscape brought about by the fiscal and monetary monstrosities of the last year, “normalization” will mean “resuming our obsession with the question of _____”
That __ is what today’s Dividend Cafe will fill in.
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The title of this week's Dividend Cafe comes from one of my favorite quotes, ever.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." ~ Mark Twain
(I attribute to Mark Twain because everyone does, but ironically given the substance of the quote, even this appears to be untrue, with most scholars believing there is no reputable source for who quoted these exact words).
The underlying message here is never more relevant than in investing, it seems to me. Plenty of people don't know certain things, and that has some impact at given times. But I am quite convinced that far more damage is done, not at the things that are that people don't know, but the things that people believe to be true (and act upon), when in fact they are not.
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David and Scott recap Q1 2021, discuss economic outlook looking forward, and explore opportunities for investors in current markets.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The actual event that I am discussing may be totally foreign to you, despite the fact that it has dominated the financial news for five or six days. There is a good reason for this if, indeed, it is true for you. The event has proven to be a really weak “news” story in my mind (not for lack of trying), but even apart from the broader news hype, it has further proven to be a weak “financial news” story, and that really, really comes not for lack of trying. This news story begs for us to address the subject of “contagion risk.”
After listening to this episode, you will know much more.
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Who would have guessed that at the one-year mark of the worst market drop since the Great Financial Crisis, one of the hottest topics in financial markets is whether or not we are in a “bubble.” Am I the only one that sees a tiny bit of irony here? A year ago, the conversation was entirely focused on whether or not millions of American people were going to die, how long the entire American economy would be shut down for (hint: it lasted longer than 15 days to bend the curve), and whether 18,000 in the Dow would prove to be low enough.
Painful times, painful memories.
Today I want to look into the very idea of bubbles, evaluate as intelligently and objectively as I am able what is going on in markets right now and what is not going on, and see if we can’t offer a little clarity into a subject that I think gets quite polluted by poor punditry. Of course, if it weren’t for poor punditry, wealth advisors like us would have a lot less cleaning up to do.
Join us in the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Zoom Replay of National Call
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
If you want a better understanding of the present state of the equity land, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want a realistic assessment of the risk of correction, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want to know what to make of higher bond yields, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. And if you want more clarity on what the Fed is doing and not doing, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you.
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Both anniversaries are vitally important and warrant special attention. One of them may surprise you or at least represent something you have forgotten. Hopefully, that will all change after you hear this podcast.
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Everything is about the Fed, bond yields, and inflation right now. Sometimes I mean that as if I am describing what really does matter, and other times I am just describing what "all the rage" is about. "Everything is about" may mean what "everything is about," or it may mean what "everyone is talking about." In this case, we have the weirdest of circumstances where "everyone" is talking about the right thing, but doing so in the wrong way. Allow me to break through some of the ambiguity.
On a daily basis you will find media reports expressing shock and awe about a 10-year Treasury bond at 1.5%, and it's fair enough to note the speed with which yields have moved in recent days. But the coverage really has an implicit message in it that I believe needs to be shunned. And as is always the case it seems, getting to my destination requires a few detours along the way.
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Investing options are growing at a rapid pace with some what were once fringe investment areas are now making it mainstream to the tune of tens of billions or dollars. With what is happening, what does today's investor do or not do to make wise investment choices?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
So when I launched The DC Today, it freed me up to use Dividend Cafe to be more “singular topic” focused, and I really do believe that makes for a better commentary. I have mostly not used this weekly commentary for “ad hoc” market discussion or current events, and I think this approach has enabled me to go a little deeper into topics that I believe are essential in their relevance. I plan to continue this approach until I get inspired otherwise (or overwhelmed with hate mail, whichever comes first).
This week, though, I do a little bit of both. The “singular topic” is a really important one – and that is seeking a better understanding of what really drives asset prices over time. There is a need for improved knowledge here, not just amongst mom and pop investors but apparently amongst the professional class as well. But I have been in New York City away from my family all week, which means one thing about my evenings back at my apartment – instead of hanging out with my wife and kids, I am just sitting there, unrepentantly (and some would say pathetically) reading more and more research. And this leads to one thing – more fodder and inspiration for the Dividend Cafe. Ergo, I cover a few “odds and ends” this week as well.
Whether it is the discussion of market forces or the tidbits covering a healthy array of other topics, I truly hope you will enjoy today’s edition of the Dividend Cafe. Let’s dive in …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
David L. Bahnsen joined by Scott Gamm to discuss the market happenings of the day.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I think there is some “economic vocabulary” in today’s Dividend Cafe that might – might! – be a turn-off to some, but will be overcome easily if you bear with it. And more importantly, there is a practical takeaway through it all that I hope you will find very rewarding.
I can see myself taking a more “multi-topic” approach to Dividend Cafe in the weeks ahead as opposed to the last several that have purposely “drilled down” into a particular theme that warranted special focus. That said, I find that five or six different topics seem to have a lot of overlap these days. I can think I am talking about government spending one paragraph and economic growth another, and voila, the third paragraph is talking about how government spending impacts economic growth. Economic and market commentary these days is one giant Venn diagram.
Such is the case with so many things I cover today. I prefer writing where all the dots are connected by the end, and maybe you will think I pulled that off by the end. But what we have today is a lot of charts, a good amount of information, some perspective that I confidently believe will aid your understanding as an investor, and maybe, just maybe, some cohesion to it all that adds sensibility when said and done.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I do some fun things today in the Dividend Cafe. We dive deep into the dilemma facing income investors, those who want and need cash flow from their portfolio. It is a conversation that can (and does) go in a number of different directions. I hope you find it riveting.
And we talk a bit about bubbles, about history, about market fads and market risk …
And of course, we look at the present economy and make some bets on where things are going. I hope it will prove informative for you.
A lot of topics that somehow are all loosely connected to one another, in this week’s Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Your hosts David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm tackle the important finance and economic news of the day.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Last week, I wrote about investors’ reality (especially professional investors) being a by-product of the era in which they came to be. The intent was to set the table for how much of my investment worldview was formed. I live with a deep fear of excess valuations, and I live with a deep cynicism of the madness of crowds. Both of these things come from years and years of abundant research. But at the foundation of that research was the experience of living through something that provoked such impulses.
I won’t re-hash all of it this week. What I want to do this week is go beyond those two topics (i.e., valuations and crowd madness). We will look at these two things and seek to understand something about both concepts, but more importantly, we will seek to apply what it may mean to the present investing landscape and what it doesn’t mean.
This week’s Dividend Cafe wants to analyze a handful of present investing landscape realities, consider the lessons of history, assess where certain things are clearly different right now, and apply what it ought to prudently mean for real-life investors with real-life goals and real-life emotions, right now.
It is, indeed, our thesis that a rotation is in motion within investment markets. But I believe that means something very different than what many are saying it means. This week’s Dividend Cafe seeks to provide clarity around what is a truly important subject in 2021.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It is appropriate and perhaps entirely ironic that the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe comes in a week where we have seen some of the most bizarre, insane, and silly market activity, ever, and that this bizarre, insane, and silly activity is accompanied by totally incoherent commentary from various pundits, politicians, and “pros.”
Whoever said investing was all math and science is an idiot.
But the drama of this week’s market, and even the circumstances around the big headline story of the week (which has actually morphed into a multi-faceted story), really do serve as a reinforcement of the major principles, beliefs, and applications I want to highlight in this week’s commentary. I began writing this Dividend Cafe last weekend, and had conceptualized my thesis well before the drama hit the tape into the week. And I haven’t altered that thesis or even the way I unpack it at all. To the extent some of this week’s Dividend Cafe connects dots with other news stories, great. But my purpose in this week’s commentary is not to make sense of a four-day story, but a four-decade story.
And I really hope it will help you in your journey and understanding as an investor.
I have long believed that all professional investors are irreversibly shaped by the era in which they grew up as an investor. This is more true of the lessons learned in that era that proved to be negative lessons than positive ones. Put differently, the major events that damage us in our formative years teach lessons that don’t go away easily.
I want to do a little history this week, talk a little investment biography, and ultimately, offer some lessons about my outlook on the present investing era that ought to transcend anything you will find in a chat room, on social media, or in the madness of the moment.
It’s a low bar.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Strong discussion on the market happenings shaping the lives of investors with David Bahnsen, Managing Director and CIO of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this episode, the point I am making is more than just “politics is overrated in evaluating market conditions” (even though that is very true). I not only believe this subject of Inflation vs. Deflation is more important than anything else in understanding the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year state of financial markets, I also believe it is a welcome reprieve from what is just overdone, over-covered, over-saturated, and ready for a break.
Inflation vs. Deflation Part II – jump on in to the Dividend Cafe.
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The Crux of the Matter
If you believed that interest rates were going to be 0-2% would you invest capital differently than if you believed they would be 5-7%?
If you believed that inflation would run 1-3%, would you invest differently than if you believed it would run 4-6%?
Does one’s view on interest rates and forward-inflation impact their expectations for P/E ratios (market valuations)?
If credit is going to tighten (ease of access to capital and cost of capital), would that alter one’s allocation to corporate credit, private equity, public equity, and a host of other risk asset classes?
Would one’s view on the U.S. dollar potentially influence their allocation to domestic vs. foreign assets?
And regardless of how one’s views on interest rates, inflation, credit, and currency impacts the decisions, they make on investment decisions, will all of these things impact the expected return on all asset classes (whether or not it alters your weightings in such asset classes)?
And if these things impact expected returns in various asset classes, does that have practical significance to one’s financial planning, accumulation goals, withdrawal goals, and other such tangible dimensions of wealth management?
The answer to every question above is YES, and pretty much all emphatically so, which means that every person reading this has a real dog in the hunt when it comes to the great economic debate of our time:
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Where to begin, indeed. It may have been exactly the kind of week investors wanted to start off 2021, but it certainly wasn’t the kind of week anyone wanted to start off 2021 from the vantage point of our country, her peace, her well-being, and her example to the world. The concept of a city on a hill is not working well, and this patriot feels total exasperation and desperation.
But I do know the readers of Dividend Cafe do not come to this publication for perspective on national conscience or psyche, especially not my clients. I believe there is a lot in this week’s Dividend Cafe that you will want to read, that matters to investors, that can better inform your beliefs and understandings in financial markets. So I am going to do what I normally do, and welcome any questions and comments any of you may have – as always.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In-depth discussion of the Year Ahead, predictions made last year, and the impact of the Senate race.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Our very special annual white paper is here, wherein we exhaustively recap 2020 and the year that just was (yes, even beyond the obvious stuff), and provide our key themes and perspectives for the year ahead. Reach out with any questions, and feel free to share/forward as you wish! Contact us at www.thebahnsengroup.com for your copy.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Last Friday, December 11, marked year number 25 since December 11, 1995, when my father passed away. His name was Greg Bahnsen, he was 47 years old (the age I will be next year), and he was my hero and my best friend. I have to imagine many of you have experienced things (including losses) that do not feel like they were as long ago as they actually were. I know those cliches are tired, but it just simply does not feel like it has been 25 years since my dad died. Yet it has been, and I imagine when another 25 years go by, I will be saying and feeling the same thing.
Time becomes a weirder thing as we get older, I suppose (some of you will have more expertise in this than I do), and I am sure that time dynamics get even muddier when we are talking about a loss. Last weekend as I was isolated away working on a project, I spent abundant amounts of time reflecting on this and many other things. Regardless of what it feels like, 25 years has gone by since dad died, and my entire life being upended and forever changed. Over these last 25 years, not just in my own personal life, but across society, the news, the world, the culture, and yes, the economy and markets, there are a whole lot of things that have barely changed or haven’t changed at all. But, there also are certain things that reflect substantial change. Not just “evolutionary” change, but real paradigmatic change.
And the biggest of those changes is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
National Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• Over the last 42 days, the market is up very close to 4,000 points • Over the last 42 days, Joe Biden has won the Presidency • Over the last 42 days, reported COVID cases have grown • Over the last 42 days, weekly jobless claims have picked back up • And once again, over the last 42 days, the market is up very close to 4,000 points
Now, I could write you a Dividend Cafe today reiterating a couple of things I have already written 100+ times in 2020 (and they would be no less valid now than they were then) – that the Fed has implemented monetary policies that have indisputably served to boost the valuations of risk assets … that the COVID doom & gloom in the press has unimpressed markets as markets learned the more detailed nature of the virus’s risk and specific vulnerabilities about seven months ago … that markets are forward-looking and with a vaccine on the horizon see a better 2021 looming … that economic damage has been limited in this painful year to a rather vulnerable but less systemically impactful part of the economy … and so forth and so on.
And if I wrote that Dividend Cafe, I would hope it would be useful, fruitful, and informative in some of the market lessons it would contain. However, it would very likely miss the most important thing one could say about this market, and frankly, one of the most important lessons one can learn about the nature of capital, period.
So that is the ambition of Dividend Cafe today. To explain why the market has been behaving as it has been, not just in the context of the four or five things uttered a couple of paragraphs ago, but in light of a huge lesson for all. And to do this, I will share a story with you that I hope somehow, someway, delivers the message with clarity. Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Early December is a tough time of year for my writing inspiration. I have soooooo much I want to say about 2020, but we really aren’t done yet, and this year as much as any other, affirms the reality that a lot can happen in a few days, let alone a few weeks. I also have a lot I want to say about 2021, but my “forecast” and “positioning” perspectives for the year ahead are also better served later in the month or early next month. Patience is a virtue, and as much as I am excited to delve into a yearly review and yearly projection, we are a few weeks off still. But it isn’t like there is nothing else to write about. Markets ended November and kicked off December this week with a move higher (as of press time, which is pre-market Friday, the Dow is up +330 points on the week, and futures are pointing to a +125 move higher. Congressional leaders in both chambers and from both parties are in heavy discussions about a new stimulus/relief bill. The incoming administration is announcing more and more of their incoming policy team. World energy markets are re-calibrating around clearer (and more improved) supply/demand dynamics. And, of course, the reality of a highly contagious respiratory virus continues to work its way through society, with various policy and economic ramifications coming in its wake.
Every year the first couple of weeks of December have a few things in common – we are too far away from recapping the year we are in, we are too far away to start making the year ahead predictions, tax-loss harvesting needs to be executed, various holiday and seasonal events and tasks take center stage, and yes, regular market and news “stuff” takes place.
This week’s Dividend Cafe will jump around a bit but offer a bit of history, a bit of present market tension, and of course, a bit of looking into the future.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
David L. Bahnsen with Scott Gamm - Market Outlook National Video Call
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I have to say there's nothing more important than the basic conversation of optimism vs. pessimism. Not only is the topic of extreme importance to me personally, existentially, emotionally, and spiritually, but I was convinced then, as I am now, that there is lasting investment significance to the topic – one that matters to the financial results of real people with real goals and real objectives.
If you fast forward from the levels of uncertainty that existed in markets (and in the society) 6-8 months ago, some may conclude, “okay, well now I am an optimist, because we see a couple vaccines coming and a lower mortality rate than we feared then, but then we saw no such thing, and pessimism was in order.” And if pessimism vs. optimism is to be determined by circumstantial conditions at a moment in time, it is fair enough. If optimism is to be recovered as a hindsight tool for use after conditions have improved, I can understand that assessment (i.e. pessimism when one doesn’t know what is going on; optimism once they see things having gotten better).
But of course, that is not what it means to be an optimist or a pessimist – to form a viewpoint or personality impulse (dare I say, a character impulse) as a backward looking response to then-known conditions. In today’s Dividend Cafe, we are going to unpack this more, and seek to understand why this topic is not just relevant to investors, but perhaps at the very heart of what it will mean to be a successful investor. I am optimistic that you will find it rewarding.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Bahnsen Group, CIO and Founder David L. Bahnsen has a lively discussion of the markets and the economy with Scott Gamm from Strategy Associates.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I wrote this week’s Dividend Cafe on Thursday morning, something I haven’t done for a Friday publication in a long time. For virtually all of 2020 there was a huge focus on making the distributed commentary as “current” as possible before submitting. Markets were moving so quickly that if the focus of the commentary was on what was happening in the markets, any delay between submission and distribution was likely to result in some part of the message being “obsolete” by the time it got to you, the readers.
Indeed, as I type this beautiful Thursday morning, I have no idea what the markets will do on Thursday, let alone Friday. But I don’t particularly care, for reasons I will explain inside the Dividend Cafe.
I have been writing the weekly market commentary since the financial crisis, and a large portion of you know. I am grateful to all of you who have stuck with the reading of this for so long. It has really always been written “as I go” throughout the week, sometimes with a lot of weekend reading the week before driving some of the message, and almost always with bit by bit writing throughout the week leading to the eventual finished product. I may get inspired on a Monday morning about emerging markets and write something then, and find a development in rate policy on Tuesday and write more still, then. It has always been the culmination of many hours of reading and writing work throughout a week.
Well that brings me to this week’s Dividend Cafe, and the topic of the here and now. Some reflections are in order, and I hope my reflections will resonate with you to some degree, and even provide some investment application that speaks to your situation. So without further adieu …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
November 3 has come and gone, and while the results may not yet be fully etched in stone, we have a pretty good feel for where things are headed. I suspect there are two camps of you who read the Dividend Cafe, and I do not refer to partisan leanings. What I mean is that I imagine many are excited to not hear about the election any longer, and then there are many who want to wrap their arms around everything as fully as possible (as far as what it all means to the economy and markets, etc.). I want to do a bit of both, personally. I want to accommodate that latter group today, providing as much useful analysis of where we go from here as possible, and then I look forward to having a lot less to say about the political implications of, well, most things.
The fact of the matter is that the political dynamic (a) Always affects markets to some degree, not just in a week like this one; and (b) Always has much, much less of an impact than people believe it does. Policies matter. And there are impacts in both macro and micro parts of the economy and investment markets that stem from policy decisions. But many investors have been utterly confounded over the years (including this week) by markets seeming to respond differently than they expected in response to some political outcome.
Investors who find themselves surprised by a market reaction to a particular political outcome that is different than they expected it to be can be forgiven since truth be told, market reactions confounding people’s expectations is the normal state of affairs. Much of it has to do with the ability of markets to have already priced in a certain outcome before it happens, meaning what seems to be a market response to something is really the market now adjusting to something else – that the market was ahead of the news headline.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Post Election Perspective on Markets with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I thought it appropriate to devote this weekend’s Dividend Cafe to the election, now that this long-awaited event is almost here. I thought about calling it an “Election Eve” edition, but considering 82,042,050 people have voted as of press time pre-market on Friday, which is about 64% of the total number of people who voted in all of 2016, it hardly feels like “election day” is “election day” … Hopefully it will just be the day they count the votes.
One way or the other, we are well into voting (28.3 million people have voted early in-person; 53.6 million people have returned mail-in ballots; 36.7 million people have outstanding mail ballots; and then there are all those who vote on Tuesday). And we are getting closer to this year's election being over. It has been the strangest election season I can remember when all is said and done.
But today in the Dividend Cafe we’ll make it a little more personal, a little more specific, and with apologies to those looking for me to throw punches, a lot less tribal. Opinionated? Yes. Fiduciary? Above all else. Objective and fair? To that end I work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
There are a couple things going on right now at The Bahnsen Group that make this a very fun time of year, and a very fun edition of the Dividend Cafe. I wrote last week about the annual money manager due diligence trip I have done since 2006 and how important it is to our business (and to our clients). The meetings of the last couple weeks, this year, coincide with the launch of our “Operation Magnify,” the largest portfolio undertaking we have ever experienced at our firm.
So today’s Dividend Cafe takes the reasons Operation Magnify became necessary, juxtaposes it with this COVID moment (what it supposedly means, what it most definitely does not mean, and what some think it may mean), and then applies lessons learned from our recent meetings and collaborations. I am aware the world is mostly focused on the election event coming up a week from Tuesday, November 3. There very well could be ample uncertainty and market volatility that comes as a result of the election (or the non-result). It would be difficult for me to devote much more attention to that subject than I have.
But the topics I want to dive into today are leaps and bounds more relevant to investors, long-term, than whatever uncertainty volatility the election results create. And like many understandings of the connection between politics and our portfolios, I believe the topics I am addressing today are riddled with misunderstanding.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (wrongly attributed to Mark Twain). Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We look at the state of the markets with the election a couple weeks away, what we mean by “post-COVID” market realities, and spend time reviewing some of the major takeaways of our recent meetings with New York City portfolio managers.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Late in 2006 I was running a practice at UBS Wealth Management and using their equity management team out of Chicago for a lot of my equity management services. I would go to Chicago and meet with them at least a couple of times a year and found the process collaborative, informative, and intellectually engaging. But all of my other money manager relationships were in New York City, so when UBS asked me to go to speak to their new advisor class in November that year (in Weehawken, NJ, where their operational headquarters are that they inherited from the old Paine Webber), I decided to schedule a few meetings with other portfolio relationships. I was only overseeing $100 million at the time, 4% of the assets we manage now, yet it never occurred to me that I may have a hard time scheduling appointments.
As a pure aside, this trip double-dipped as a recruiting trip for another major Wall Street firm who was pushing me to join them in the opening of a new Newport Beach office for their firm. I met with their legendary CEO, a fellow named Ace Greenberg, and heavily considered their extremely flattering offer. The name of that firm … Bear Stearns. In March 2008, they would be dead and gone, sold to the loving arms of JP Morgan for $2 per share (from over $150). Suffice it to say, I didn’t join them after those enticing meetings. God was watching.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I did something today I have not done with Dividend Cafe, ever. I just wrote it. I just sat down and started typing, and wrote it, all the way through. I didn’t cover ten or fifteen or twenty topics like I usually do. And I didn’t write some parts on a Saturday and other parts on a Tuesday, adjusting for new market action on Wednesday, etc. I wrote in one sitting an entire treatise on what I believe is the great paradigm to understand in the years to come for investors. Don’t worry, I went back and added some sub-titles to “break it up” a bit, but it really is one topic all the way through.
I really hope it will inform you, guide you, challenge you, and to some degree, edify you. I also hope it will provoke you to reach out with any questions you may have. We invest for the world that is, not the one we want. And some years, the delta between those two seems wider than other years.
Jump on in, to the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I wrote the majority of this week’s Dividend Cafe before the news had broken that President Trump and First Lady Melania had tested positive for COVID. We wish them a speedy recovery, of course, but don’t have much to say about “market implications” of such, other than the obvious – more uncertainty, more volatility. I will hold off on political and market implications for a few days, for obvious reasons.
There are lessons from the COVID era that will stick with us forever. Most of them, mind you, if not all, were not new lessons - they were reminders - reaffirmations of timeless lessons and principles. I am not sure the way we were reminded of some of these lessons felt familiar. Markets do not often drop 36% in 31 days. But these general principles all held true, in spades.
In this week's very important Dividend Cafe, I am going to write about some of those lessons (not all of them), and transition that into an opportunity to MAGNIFY what we believe at The Bahnsen Group, what we are doing now, and how we are using the COVID moment to optimize client portfolios for the years to come, all by just MAGNIFYING what we have always believed.
This Operation Magnify that we have been developing for months is both a proactive and reactive process. We want to take new realities to their logical conclusions and apply them into an investor's portfolio, and we want to create an entirely consistent process and infrastructure by which we assess and administer this on behalf of our clients.
If you are not a client of ours, it really doesn't matter. The moment you are living in is a moment of paradigmatic change for investors. Viruses and the risk of viruses have always existed. "Tail risk" events that shock and awe markets have certainly always existed (and always will). But there are fundamental realities that have changed - many of which were well under way pre-COVID, I assure you - and the discussion in Dividend Cafe today is useful even for those not under our care.
The same is true of your approach to investing, and that is where we are going in today's Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It is a bittersweet moment for me to present my last ever missive of COVID and Markets. Okay, it is a lot more sweet than bitter. I truly believe the essence of the markets lesson from COVID has been learned, and that the ongoing story of economic recovery, policy response, and all the various implications of things will live in for some time to come. But included in that essence is the reality of living with COVID, protecting the most vulnerable, and engaging trade-offs around reasonable safety measures for public health vs. the existential and economic need to have a functioning society. There are a lot of resources out there producing a truly intelligent, sober, and informed perspective on COVID medically, which really do seek to neutralize the panic-porn sensationalism so many have fallen into. This can’t be one of those resources. I don’t have the expertise or bandwidth to fully dedicate myself to COVID/medical information. It has been integrated with my work for six months, and I am proud of what I have learned and what I have presented, but it was always, always, always intended to be a part of the broader economic and markets story.
I am a markets guy, with every ounce of breath in my body. And the COVID part of COVID & Markets is no longer on my front page, and shouldn’t be on yours either. So I have to be honest.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
with your host David L. Bahnsen, CIO and Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
There are a lot of places to go on the map right now. Markets were not just "up" throughout most of June/July/August, but they were "boring" in the way they did it. Limited volatility. Total transcendence to some of the silliness in how the media covered COVID. And a pretty consistent slow-burn to the upside. September has now invited normalcy back, and by normalcy, yes, I do mean frothy, over-valued tech positions getting re-priced (and that process could be in very early innings from where I sit), but also just plan going up and down - the standard bi-directional definition of volatility.
We have a number of things going on in markets right now that will be discussed in this week's Dividend Cafe, and I suspect the conclusions I draw will be really satisfying for some, and really unsatisfying for others. I am hearing more and more people talk about certain things that seem obvious to them. This is the most bullish thing you could hope for if you are a contrarian (or a half-way decent hedge fund manager).
In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at ... • What all may be wrong or not wrong with markets • Five facts to focus on through the weeks and months ahead • Cash levels are still very, very high - but what does that mean? • Whether or not 2009 has anything to teach us right now • All the things happening in the economy (must read) • Politics and Money, and now the Supreme Court? • And of course, the Chart of the Week And with that, let's dive into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market had been pointing to a modestly positive opening all night and into the very early morning futures action, but around 5:30am turned south, again led by technology. The market opened down 250 points, and then went up 500 points (so up 250 on the day), and then bounced around throughout the day. It closed up just +50 points or so with all indexes about the same on the day in percentage terms. The timing of the downturn this morning came right as the weekly jobless numbers came, but truth be told there was nothing unsurprising at all in the jobs data, so I doubt that was related. More or less, I think the markets are zigging and zagging because that is what they do – and notoriously so this time of year. I do not expect anything different for the next couple of months. Lots and lots of COVID info today, and plenty on housing etc. — off we go!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market dropped 500 points yesterday but today rallied back ~140 points. One big tech name today was a huge part of the S&P/Nasdaq rally …
The market drop yesterday (at one point down nearly a thousand points, but closed down ~500) allegedly started with a report that a number of global banks had “moved illicit funds” over a 20-year period from 1997-2017. No doubt, this was but one factor with talk of another lock-down in the UK being another, and concern about greater political (and societal) drama (in the aftermath of the Justice Ginsburg passing) being another.
Let’s go around the horn today with ample COVID information and perspective, and plenty on the public policy front, housing, and Fed as well …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• The big unknown of corporate profits in the here and now and future • Impact of perpetual quasi-COVID lockdowns • The ambiguity of the present economic condition • Operation Magnify • Why financial services are under-valued, but not for the reason many think • A sober assessment of the state of stock buybacks • Why corporate bond yields matter so much to stocks, and everything else • Night trading more important than day trading? • Politics and Money: A new poll you haven’t seen in the news • Chart of the Week:
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market dropped 130 points today (Dow). Futures were down 300 when I woke up this morning and the market opened down 300, then actually went up on the day, then fell over 300 again, then zigged and zagged into the close before closing down 130 (-0.47%). The Nasdaq was down 1.25%, and it remains off right around 10% from its high.
The weekly jobless claims came in at 860,000, as expected, but continuing claims dropped by almost a million, landing at 12.6 million (now half of that 25 million high we had early on).
There is a lot today – from Housing to the Fed to policy to oil – the way I like these missives to go – but starting off with all the COVID news that is fit to print …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
COVID Health Information • The seven-day average of 34.7k new daily cases is down 48.4% from the July 22 peak.
• The BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine project has said they believe it is “likely” their vaccine will be distributable before the end of the year. They obviously cannot predict what the FDA approval process will look like but there seems to be a lot of confidence in the direction of their vaccine trials. They recently expanded their trial pool from 30,000 to 44,000.
• Madrid’s hospitalizations through the so-called “second wave” of Spain are 1/7th (14%) that of what they were in the spring. I hate being so redundant with you but often the news itself is redundant. The cases are less severe, the people are healthier, the treatments are better, and so forth and so on
• New cases in Denmark have tripled, whereas in Sweden they have barely moved. As for what could possibly be causing this dynamic, I guess I would refer you to:all the media reports covering this prior issues of COVID & Markets.
• JP Morgan has determined that productivity does, indeed, fall for employees working from home. In other news, I have determined that the sun is hot.
• The University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine has a promising development you may want to read more about.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Download White Paper HERE - https://thebahnsengroup.com/dividend-cafe/special-election-issue-dividend-cafe-sept-11/#download
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
David reminisces about the 9/11 and the aftermath of the city and the people of New York City.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market dropped 400 points today despite opening up over 200 points. The 600-point intra-day reversal was led by the Nasdaq’s almost 400-point intra-day reversal, bringing the recent peak-to-trough drop now to ~9.6%, so not quite 10% correction territory on a closing basis.
There was not a particular catalyst to the sell-off. The weekly jobless claims number came an hour before the market opened and the tick down did not begin until ninety minutes after the market opened. The fact that the Democrats blocked the Republican stimulus bill from coming forward for discussion was obviously not a surprise. The selling pressure in big tech just hasn’t settled yet, and that is where we are. Weekly jobless claims stayed around 850,000 on the week, and continuing claims stayed around 13.4 million …
Okay – around the horn we go!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market dropped for the third day in a row, again led substantially by the sell-off in big tech (the Nasdaq is down 10% since last Wednesday’s late day high). The Dow is down ~1,600 points since mid-week last week, about half of the drop in the Nasdaq in percentage terms. Futures were pointing up ~200 points last night, but today the market opened down 400 points and chopped around throughout the day, taking two turns down in the final two hours of trading.
Expect a bit more markets and economic coverage in this week’s missives than normal because the Friday Dividend Cafe will be exclusively focused as the special election issue. We are entering a new phase of the COVID economic recovery that I believe will move slower than the first half has moved. A lot of the low-hanging fruit of job recovery and activity-resurgence has taken place, but normalized conditions are a ways off and will likely see a slowdown in pace of recovery from here.
COVID Health Information
• I am sure the Labor Day report of just 27,000 new cases yesterday was low around holiday reporting issues. The 7-day moving average is dropping ever so slowly. • The 7-day rolling average for daily mortalities is down 12% from the week prior and down 22% from a month ago. • The leaders of nine major pharma companies, all engaged in leading vaccine efforts, sent a public letter vowing to take no shortcuts en route to a COVID vaccine. • Incredible news (I will keep this updated as long as Dr. Bostom keeps maintaining the source report): 26,000 alleged COVID positive cases on college campuses now; zero hospitalizations
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will address all of this and more:
• Market week in review – is this the tech correction we have been anticipating??? • A vast and thrilling ride through the world of zero% interest rates, and what this new monetary regime means for the economy, the future, and oh yeah, all investors! • A tale of two economies • Something to really worry about • The danger of stock splits • The Pro and Con case for the bank sector • Economic Report Card for the Week (special attention to today’s jobs report) • Politics & Money – update on the election betting odds, scenarios for election night, and general volatility expectations • Chart of the Week – a little history of Nasdaq corrections …
A perfect way to launch your Labor Day weekend … Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
COVID Health Information
• Confirmed cases in the U.S. are running about flat this week to last week, which leads some to say, “oh good, cases are not further increasing,” and it leads others to say, “see, the rate of decline has flat-lined.” It would seem to me that neither posture is the most astute given all we have learned, particularly in the context of applying COVID to our economic and market and societal realities. But as long as the focus is wrongly put on cases versus the other metrics we have learned are more systemically significant, that debate will likely continue.
• If one were inclined to earnestly follow the case growth numbers, though, and I certainly provide them here (despite my insistence that they are of little use I still play along), it would be noteworthy that while case growth has flattened, testing is actually up 6%, with the positivity rate is down to the 5-handle we were waiting for. In other words, adjusted for testing, cases are continuing to decline.
• If there is one “prediction” I can offer here (and if there is anything NO ONE should be doing around COVID based on the last four or five months, it is making predictions), it is that we will see cases on college campuses in the coming weeks – cases that will create little or no hospitalizations – result in the next round of headlines and hand-wringing (and everyone can decide for themselves if such will be justified or not). P.S. – 546 positives art University of Kansas – zero hospitalizations; Ohio State University 882 positives, zero hospitalizations.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The extraordinary drop in new cases has slowed down, as expected. New cases seem to have flat-lined even as hospitalizations and mortalities continue declining, pointing to the increasingly less symptomatic and lethal nature of COVID cases currently being tested.
Color me confused by analysts and experts who are confused by the low mortality metrics coming out of European countries in their late summer increase of new cases. I would think everyone would have expected the low mortality rates Europe is seeing based on the experience of the U.S. this summer (better treatment, healthier infections, less severe virus, etc.).
The CFA Institute published a provocative article last week from Laurence Siegel (Director of Research at the CFA Institute Research Foundation) and Stephen Sexauer (CIO at the San Diego Employees Retirement Pension) looking at the dangers of COVID that are not specific to COVID (Bastiat’s law of the unseen versus the seen). This chart in particular grabbed me.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:
• Review the week that was in markets
• Really spend the time we need looking at what the Fed has done, will do, and will never, ever do
• Provide five key investment implications to the monetary regime we now live in
• Do a “Euro”pean history lesson for you, and look at what that means for investors now
• Provide an explanation of how business investment works, what the hold-up has been, and why it matters
• Politics and Money – a look at this week’s Republican convention
• Chart of the Week
Let’s jump in, to the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market rose 160 points today, perhaps from a mix of reasons (Fed talk, hurricane control, and COVID testing news – see below). The S&P was up just a tad, and the Nasdaq was actually down on the day.
I do feel like today’s missive is a meaty one, so I hope you will enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I confess, this “every other day” missive schedule has been much more manageable for yours truly! Okay, let’s go around the horn …
COVID Health Information • Confirmed new cases are now down over 37% from the July peak of a month ago, and are down over 12% on daily average basis from last week. The case decline is rapid, and while I am of the opinion it must be hospitalizations and case severity that drives public policy, not merely the existence of cases, the actual decline in cases adds ammo to the arguments for greater freedom of movement and activity (an economic plus).
• The only states not seeing rapid decline in hospitalizations are Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and West Virginia – more or less the overall national trend and data reality where there is a real COVID presence is in overwhelmingly declining COVID hospitalizations.
• And even apart from the dropping hospitalizations, and dropping cases, the hospitalizations-per-confirmed cases has dropped substantially from the spring levels, unambiguously supporting the notion that the recent infections affected a less vulnerable and more healthy group, and lending support to the idea many epidemiologists have proposed that the virus is losing potency.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market dropped 60 points today but the S&P and Nasdaq were both up. It was a pretty mixed day across sectors and market categories.
I am going to write more about it in Friday’s Dividend Cafe but the news today that Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer spoke with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday, and that all commitments of the phase one trade accord were reaffirmed, is substantial (at least for now in containing potential tail risk).
One of the advantages in this new schedule to my missives is that it gives me the chance to better broaden the scope (not ignoring the other categories besides COVID health data). Today we cover all the bases, and they are worth your read.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Up to date information regarding Covid and Markets with a focus on the impact of the pending elections and Federal Reserve guidance.
With David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week we look at …
• The week that was in the market (and get ready for the final week of August ahead) • Really, truly unpack why dividend growth investing is so important, and why the dividend itself is such a small part of that, and yet such a big part of it • The deflationary nature of debt, and how all that works … A special feature! • Valuations in the stock market, here, and in third world countries • China. Enough said. • The state of the economy (as we do every week) • Politics and Money (as we also do every week, even when it hurts) • … and so much more
With our thinking caps on, let’s jump in to the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was up ~50 points today with the S&P and Nasdaq up higher than the Dow on a percentage basis. Markets had been down last night in very late night futures ~200 points, allegedly on Fed comments regarding yield curve control (please). Then markets evened up, allegedly on reports that China trade talks were re-scheduled (please). Then markets dropped a bit after the weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected (maybe). And by the end of the trading day, markets had grinded out an up day, and big tech led the way.
The weekly jobless claims number came in at 1.1 million, far higher than the 960k we got down to last week and the 925k expected this week. Continuing claims, though, declined by another 636,000 though, bringing that number below 15 million.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was down about 65 points today, but the S&P and the Nasdaq were up, and in fact, the S&P closed at a new all-time high today.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• Market Recap of the week that just was • A little reality check on interest rates • A report card for earnings season for Q2 • Anyone remember China? • Commercial real estate lending • Restaurants looking for some help – and possibly going to get it • Is our monetary system working? • Economic report card for the week (jobs, retail sales, consumer credit, and more) • Politics and Money – a bit more of a look at Kamala Harris as the VP pick and what it means to markets and policy (and so, so, so much more) • Chart of the Week
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market dropped 80 points today though at one point was down ~200 points before rallying over half of the ddrop back in the final hour of trading. The weekly jobless claims came in below one million (963,000 to be precise), below the symbolic million mark for the first time since the COVID moment began, and well below the 1.1 million expectation. Continuing claims came in at 15.5 million, down 604,000 from last week. The numbers aren’t “good” – but they are “getting better” – and they are “getting better more than expected” …
COVID Health Information • It certainly is reasonable that there are differing opinions as to “where” the herd immunity threshold may be reached, and whether one believes it is a lower number or higher number, the “variable” that sits in the middle is T-cell immunity which is a somewhat unknown component in getting to the total number. Nobel laureate and Stanford Professor, Michael Levitt, has been an incredible resource throughout this whole affair, and has provided the most reliable forecasts thus far about “excess mortalities” and other key measures. He has placed the herd immunity threshold at 15-20% (though again, others place it much higher, with varying differences as to where the T-cell immunity level sits in the equation). The University of Oxford study has placed the number closer to 25%, again, because of exposures many have already had to other coronaviruses, as well as what immunity exists from natural (t-cell) resistance.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market futures were up another 250 points at 3:45am this morning and I immediately thought, “Oh, does Iran have a working vaccine now?” (If you are missing my joke, see yesterday’s missive on Russia). But in all seriousness, markets continue to be trading with very positive sentiment, and with no regard for a stimulus deal (more on that below). The markets ended up today nearly 300 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq each did even better. I simply do not believe the market cares (right now) about a stimulus deal, and the markets digestion (all summer) of the COVID reality has been remarkable.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market futures were screaming higher yet again when I woke up at 3:30am PT this morning, and if the headlines were to be believed (they often aren’t in financial media), it was because the market was reacting to Russia’s claim to have a working vaccine for COVID-19. The market opened 300 points or so, stayed up most of the day, but then sold off late in the day (dropping from +300 to -100).
The Nasdaq and Big Tech were actually down all day today, even when the Dow was up 300, and the Nasdaq ended off 1.7% today. Energy, Financials, and REIT’s were still positive on the day. The market was not rallying on Russia vaccine news, in case you were wondering, and today was an extremely mixed bag of conflicting signals and confusions. COVID Health Information
• So speaking of that Russian vaccine registration, here are the facts. First, we are talking about Putin and Russia. Let’s just leave that out there as the fact on which all other facts sit. Second, the registration is conditional; trials are actually still ongoing. Third, production has not yet begun. Fourth, no trial details or doctor/scientist reports have been released, let alone peer-reviewed. Fifth, would you take this vaccine?
• The total number of Americans hospitalized WITH COVID-19 (which is categorically different from being hospitalized BECAUSE OF COVID-19) has dropped to below 50,000 people nationwide.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from August 10, 2020.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will:
- Summarize this week’s action in the market, with a summary of the better-than-expected July jobs report
- Look at the intense pursuit for a COVID vaccine and what that means for markets
- Add a little detail and caveat to the current market rally, and big tech’s role within it!
- Discuss what it will taken to energize midstream energy
- Correct the record on Q2 GDP growth
- Think through the growing tensions with China
- Simulate the stimulus
- Look under the hood of the current state of the economy (pretty extensively), covering manufacturing, auto sales, hotel traffic, restaurant traffic, and all the things …
- Politics & Money – the polls are tightening, and we look at a long-held theory about predicting the Presidential winner …
- Chart of the Week – our cup runneth over with optimism for dividend growth, thanks to present conditions, and past lessons
- Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was pointing down over 100 points in the morning futures this morning, but reversed into positive territory when the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 1.18 million vs. the 1.42 million expected (the lowest weekly claims number since the March lockdowns began). After a grind throughout the day, and this time led by technology, the market closed up 185 points.
COVID Health Information • New cases were down 25% week over week and, once again, all the talk is around what data may be missing with various weather and tech challenges around the country. Testing itself is down 20% and I am now in both camps as to why that is – that the decreased testing is both a reflection of improved conditions (less symptoms means less test demand), and some glitches and delays around weather and capacity, etc.
• One analyst I adore postulated that less people are getting tested because they have seen media reports how long lines and delays to get tested (and get results). I am not sure what to make of that, but I can’t rule it out.
• With a h/t to the reader who turned me on to this, I am shocked that the Clark County, Nevada data (i.e. Las Vegas) is not getting any kind of national attention (okay, I am not actually shocked).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market rallied 375 points today, again closing at its highest point of the day as late trading added momentum to the market. Clearly expectations are high for a stimulus deal, there was a bit of curve widening helping banks today, and earnings season was substantially better than had been anticipated. I would love to credit the vastly improving COVID picture with some of the Dow move higher, but the COVID challenges this summer didn’t do much to harm the market, so I don’t think one can have it both ways.
(Note the time ledger on the Dow chart; I started today on the eastern time zone but closed the day on pacific)
The ADP jobs report did show 167,000 new jobs month over month, but one would think the number would be higher given the losses of the lockdown. The strong comeback number in June versus this more tepid comeback number in July seems to indicate a slowdown in re-hiring, not surprising given the policy measures taken in July.
As is often the case, I can’t explain why but today’s missive has been one of my favorite to prepare.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was up 164 points today, though the % move up in the S&P and the Nasdaq was less. There was a little move up to start the day, then a flat range for most of the day, followed by a dip, and then a rally into the close. My own feeling is that investors are a little hesitant to be unexposed into a close out of fear that a stimulus deal may get announced while markets are closed … (it isn’t impossible, but I doubt that it is imminent).
The “hurricane” set to come through NYC turned out to be a rain shower, and something tells me this won’t be the last time a doom & gloom prediction for New York City turns out to be wrong this year.
Speaking of NYC, they have LESS THAN a 1% positivity rate right now with high levels of testing, and that positivity rate has been less than 2% for almost two months! Their new cases are almost not registering at all (57 yesterday, same as some small towns in the midwest). Hospitalizations were just 15 yesterday – again, 15 is a fraction of what towns 1/100th the size are experiencing. And mortalities have been zero many days recently, and not more than ten in a day for several weeks.
So I am pleased to see all of this in NYC, and hopeful that it leads to steps towards economic revitalization, not the opposite. Now, with NYC’s health status out of the way, let’s jump everywhere else we normally go.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
COVID Health Information
• There is discussion of testing coming down in the last few days and it will be useful for validation of case reductions and so forth if the testing does not slow down – for the case declines to be accompanied to steady or growing testing, not reduced testing. The best way to measure that is in the positivity rate, of course.
• Much of the testing reduction, though, appears to be related to the hurricane near Florida. I elaborate on Florida data below in the F.A.C.T. section.
• The data point that is most disconnected from testing, the result lag problem, and even mortality reporting is Hospitalizations. Nothing drives policy decisions more than hospitalizations. If by the end of this week we continue to see hospitalizations and ICU’s declining, regardless of testing and cases, I believe we will see some of the more onerous restrictions start to be lifted as August kicks into full gear.
• The International Journal of Infectious Diseases has published a study evaluating data in Japan to evaluate the effectiveness of school closures in limiting transmission of coronavirus. The report is a tough but brilliant read, and ultimately concludes that school closure was not an effective policy act in constraining transmission.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will …
Give a quick summary of the market this week Do a deeper dive into all the rage in big tech Question if big tech is the only game in town to invest in innovation Look at health care spending in Q2 and why it may shock you Analyze the dollar’s decline Explore the power of the Fed, in very practical terms … Wonder out loud what is going on with the Main Street Lending program The highlight of the week – What to think about Equities Right Now Walk through the full Economic Report Card of the week Politics & Money – the Biden VP pick, investor fears, and the fate of a new stimulus deal Chart of the Week – why China tensions are not going anywhere, and most people like that! … and much, much more …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
COVID Health Information
• The seven-day average of new tests is now 820,000, a new high (by far). Nationwide, the increase in cases over the summer is practically in line with testing increases. It is the select states where positive cases outpaced increases in testing.
• Add Johnson & Johnson’s Ad26.Cov2-S to the list of vaccine candidates showing very positive results. Their trials thus far were limited to monkeys, though a clinical trial has now begun in Europe and the United States. The full study has been peer-reviewed, and is available upon request. The source of excitement here is that the strong antibody response is coming from a single dose … They are targeting phase 3 trials for September
• A source of mine had been sending me daily updates throughout the last few months on one of New Jersey’s premier hospitals and their COVID exposures, particularly when they were seeing hundreds of patients per day, suffered extraordinary losses, and were having to re-purpose facilities to meet demand. At some point it waned, then they shut down the COVID wing, then the COVID patient load of standard inpatients and ICU steadily declined. Well, today, I got an update. For the first time, this hospital does not have a single COVID patient. Praise the Lord.
• Not a lot of change in the general messages of the chart quadrant today. Cases are declining; hospitalizations are declining in the troubled places and flattening elsewhere; a few smaller states are seeing some mild growth in cases off of very low levels. The questions in front of us deal with society’s ability to “live” with this virus, and to continue mitigation against severity and mortality.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
COVID Health Information
In the “F.A.C.T.” section below, you will see what I believe is the most important data point this summer around the Arizona/New York case data …
Yesterday’s new cases vs. the Tuesday of last week declined 4.5%, making it the third day in a row of week-to-week decline, something that Pantheon pointed out to me this morning has not happened since late May. The 7-day moving average of new cases is down 4% since its peak.
The California and Texas hospitalization reporting is totally screwed up, and so national trends are distorted when two of the largest states can’t get their reporting straight. Where states had a hospitalization issue and are not struggling with reporting, the trend is very clear that hospitalizations are declining, ICU’s are declining (though not as much as hospital admissions), discharges are increasing, and stay time in hospitals has been cut in half from what it was in April.
I want to provide all data, good and bad, so I have been including each day the facts around case growth in some states like Oklahoma, Alaska, Rhode Island, etc. And while the empirical fact of case growth, not case decline, has been pointed out there, I think it adds to the honesty of the presentation to mention that the “case growth” there has come off of very, very low bases.
A fascinating look at Sweden’s situation with some quotes from the “Anthony Fauci of Sweden” (Anders Tegnell) throughout.
I read a fascinating study this morning from the Mayo Clinic concluding that there have been substantially lower COVID infection rates for those who have received vaccines in the last five years for non-COVID related diseases such as polio, Hepatitis, geriatric flu, and others … Happy to send to those interested (a heavy read).
Sometimes the thing to do when forecasts are off is not be critical, but be grateful. And also, to learn for the future …
DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
COVID Health Information
• Cases were down 8.3% from the same day last week, and these two consecutive days of week-over-week decline represent the first two days of such in about eight weeks.
• Testing is up, case growth is dropping, so positivity rate is dropping. All data points have more room to go, though.
• The vaccine candidate from Pfizer/BioNTech have begun stage three trials and are targeting a regulatory review by October. Moderna is also in a large, final-stage trial for their candidate.
• Dr. Francis Collins, the Director of the National Institutes of Health (Dr. Fauci’s boss), has provided some stunningly useful insights in understanding the greater resistance to COVID embedded in the society than we previously thought. T cell resistance based on past exposure to other coronaviruses (sometimes the cause of colds we have all had) is explaining a larger immunity and resistance than previously understood.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm from July 27, 2020.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today's Dividend Cafe reminds of the uncertainty that exists around the world today. Europe may seem to have rectified some parts of their uncertainty, but they invited new uncertainties in doing so. The U.S./China tensions are not solving themselves, and you may have read somewhere that COVID case growth hasn't solved itself yet either (highly contagious viruses are interesting, that way). It is a both unavoidable and unsettling reality of life right now - many conditions, globally and not just domestically, are uncertain.
In answer to this uncertainty, the Dividend Cafe provides a little refresher of some of the most basic investment principles we believe in, applied to the methodology The Bahnsen Group has built its business around - dividend growth.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Data this week has been quite a mixed bag with some of the encouraging data being more encouraging than I expected, and some of the negative data being more negative than expected. “Sustained outright declines in new cases are not that far off” [Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics], but right now we are just watching the new case curve peak, and disparate results in different states makes it all tough to analyze.
The chart and information I provide at the top of our FACT section below is, I think, the most important part of today’s missive. Fundamentally, these three realities have all held up incredibly true: (1) Case growth has been mostly amongst the young and healthier, and (2) Treatments have substantially improved since March/April.
I was fascinated to see that Sweden had 132 new cases countrywide yesterday, while Australia had 468. It is just an interesting contrast between a vigorous lock-down and shut-out of visitors (Australia), versus the encouragement of a herd immunity build-up. Sweden’s new cases and mortalities are now so low that all eyes are really on whether or not they get a sort of “second wave.”
The chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology in India stated yesterday that Dehli, India is fast approaching herd immunity, another massive world city showing huge positivity in seroprevalence tests and therefore a large part of the population already infected.
Major League Baseball season officially kicks off tonight, and while fans are not allowed for now even with masks and distancing (no comment), it is symbolically and substantively delightful that the Yankees will be teeing off on the Washington Nationals tonight. I expect big ratings. Really big.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was up 165 points today, mostly on a flat/choppy day that simply escalated in the last two hours of trading.
The general mood was that reports the Republicans are open to extending the federal unemployment benefit at a $400/month level through December drove the last day market move higher, but I am skeptical. It is certainly possible, but it strikes me as utterly incomprehensible that the market would not have known Republicans were going to do something like this.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market closed up +150 points today, though the Nasdaq sold off. Energy led the way today, while Health Care & Technology were the losers. As for health data: Case growth Monday was 4.2% lower than Monday of last week. The national percentage of positive tests was down to 7.9%, the lowest in nearly two weeks.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was flat today in the Dow, but both the Nasdaq and the S&P were up (the Nasdaq meaningfully so after last week’s travails).
Today’s missive really, truly does go all around the horn – lots and lots of up to date health info, and some useful info with the stimulus bill, housing, the Fed, and more.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week's Dividend Cafe we focus on the trade-off of volatility and expected returns
- A market summary of the week that just was
- Where the next stimulus bill may be heading
- Why QE is not acting like debt monetization (yet)
... and so much more
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market missed out on its first five consecutive days of price increase by dropping 135 points today …
Initial jobless claims came in at 1.3 million for the week, a tad higher than 1.25 million expected. Continuing claims dropped to 17.3 million, a bigger drop than expected and now down 30% from the 25 million high of March. Retail sales were up +7.5% in June vs. +5% expected.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market closed up 230 points today, zig-zagging around most of the day after opening up +350 points.
The driver was optimism around vaccine talk (and it is not just one source of optimism, as you will see in today’s Health Data). Earnings season is too young to be much of a driver but I selfishly like what I have seen so far. Let’s jump around the bend as always …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures were up close to a hundred points last night, vacillating between the flat line and +100, at 3:30am ET this morning they were flat, and by 4:00am they were +100. But really it was all worthless until bank earnings started coming in, and when the first mega-bank reported their results, futures had a mixed response (some names up, some names down) The market opened up a bit and throughout the day grinded higher. Bottom line, by 4pm ET, the market closed up 557 points, and the Nasdaq even ended up despite moments of big sell-off mid-day.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is the replay of the Market Outlook National Video Call with David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions. But what is most important to me in this week’s Dividend Cafe is that it addresses the issue I believe is most necessary for grown-ups to deal with in this day age:
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will: • Recap the week that just was in markets • Make the case for a market change in the near future – not one defined by all going down or all going up, but rather one defined by a shift in leadership, away from the popularity group and into the more fundamental group. • Set the table for a “two-act play” around how we evaluate the economy – the lockdown recession and recovery from such; followed by the “aftershock” phase that deals with structural ramifications from that first phase • The burden of where rates are now and where they have been • Ask what has happened to oil prices in 2020, and why! • Take a look at what the real issue I have with bonds is as I look out into the future • Note the threats hanging over FANG • Look at what to expect out of the earnings season that begins this week • Ask where are we with the U.S. dollar, and what becomes the more investible equity space when the dollar declines? The answer may surprise you. • Provide a little history on the quarters and years that follow strong quarters. It’s rare to get such universally compelling data. • Provide our weekly economic report card of the good, bad, and ugly out there, with a special look this week at manufacturing, services, air travel, and more. • Do Politics & Money • And in the Chart of the Week, let you decided if we are inflationary woods, or a deflationary jungle
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I’ll save you the play by play of what happened with futures last night and this morning, but it was pretty boring. And the markets moved higher a bit pre-market when the jobs numbers came out (see below). But what moved markets lower during trading today seems to be (and I say “seems” because it really doesn’t seem to be much of a market moving event to me, but it was perfectly time to the release of the news) the announcement that the Supreme Court is allowing the New York DA to get Trump’s tax returns. Anyways, the market went down over 500 points, but closed down 350, and actually the S&P was down less than half what the Dow was, and the Nasdaq was modestly up today. So it was not a normal day.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures were modestly positive all of last evening and into my morning wake-up. They turned negative a few hours before the market opened and bounced around pre-market. The market opened up a bit, then dropped a few hundred points, then bounced around throughout the day, and rallied into the close to end up +177 points on the day. Not a huge day one way or the other, but some intra-day volatility (as usual).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I woke up this morning to an overnight Nikkei that had dropped a tad, European markets down a tad, and U.S. futures down 100 points or so. Futures eased lower throughout the morning (which I might add, now total about six hours before the market opens, versus three hours on west coast – and I love it!) … The market opened down 200 and stayed in that range most of the day before petering out in the final hour of trading and closing near the low (in fairness, this would have been five days in a row of the market being up) …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China’s market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times.
Anyways, the Dow opened up big, and traded between +300 and +400 most of the day, and closed right near the high of the day, up +460 points.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week's Dividend Cafe we will look at:
The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what behavioral lessons some investors may want to pick up from this. We do an extensive dive into what lies ahead for 2020, and our views on economic recovery, stimulus, a vaccine, volatility, and so much more.
What the jobs report yesterday did to encourage us, and what is still lacking - and will be for quite some time
Why Fed liquidity provisions may or may not matter to the real economy (i.e. jobs), but certainly matter to investors
The under-appreciated tensions coming to the surface with China after Bejing's passage of this Hong Kong security measure.
What history says about an investor's timeline and corresponding expectation
How foreign investors apparently feel about American markets right now
And all the economic data for the week to form that perfectly mixed picture of ambiguity. Retail. Consumption. Jobs. Capex. Copper. Checking account balances. We have it all.
And in Politics & Money ... the betting odds are blowing out for Joe Biden; what does that mean for investors, and what might the next three months of the stock market tell us about what to expect in November
Finally, in the Chart of the Week, some calendar history to take us home
Let's jump in to the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market closed the shortened holiday week up over 800 points for the week, with the market up almost 100 points today. Futures were really flat last night, and at 4:30am Eastern this morning were up over 200 points. The jobs report came at 8:30am ET and futures added on another 200 points. Markets were up 400 points at one point and moved up and down throughout the day before selling off substantially in the final 30-45 minutes of trading (not a surprise at all going into the long holiday weekend).
Regarding that jobs report, the big bullish news was that 4.8 million jobs were added back in June, about 1.6 million more than the 3.2 million consensus expectation. I want to reiterate – the fact that the “experts” continue to get economic projected data so wrong is not so much that they are incompetent as that this is all very, very hard – and not based on solid historical precedents. That said, I would recommend the pundits moderate their predictions with greater humility, but again, this is uncharted territory.
2.1 million jobs in leisure and hospitality were brought back. This makes it all the more important that policymakers not capitulate to the panic mob and allow a safe and sensible re-opening to continue. More importantly, it does show a continued trend that job losses were initially classified as temporary, are indeed proving to be temporary. Now, permanent job losses were up 500,000, and that is a cause for concern. The percentage of the unemployment we have classified as “temporary” as gone from 78% to 59%, yet that is largely because a good portion of those temporarily unemployed people have been hired back.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is the audio replay of National Call Market Outlook from TBG CIO - David L. Bahnsen. With Host Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates.
Discussed is the impact of increased COVID cases in certain states on markets, and will attempt to evaluate the latest economic and investment developments, and what we are anticipating as we officially enter the second half of the year.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• Some clarification on COVID and the current media coverage
• How the result of “financialization” is to ignore capital investment, and how starving the economy of capital spending deprives it of future productivity
• The stress of the stress tests!
• The lost decade of gold is a powerful antidote to the strange argument that central bank abuses are bullish for gold. If the last decade wasn’t the golden era of central bank libertinism, I don’t know what was. And yet gold is just now trying to get back within striking distance of where it was ten years ago??
• A refresher on our friend, Illiquidity, and why behavioral finance drives the return premium in private market assets – a section that should get its own dedicated Dividend Cafe!
• How good/bad is the economic “recovery” going?
• And the secret sauce on how politics works in conjunction with markets … what we expect out of the next few months as various political scenarios play themselves out
• The Chart of the Week looks at the three stages of the COVID era …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures last night really hugged around the flat line non-stop from 3pm pacific until 9pm or so when I stopped checking. At 3am this morning they were still flat, and throughout the morning going into the market open they moved a tad lower. The Dow got down as much as 200 points, gyrated around most of the day up and down, and then rallied the final hour of trading to close up 300 points.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market futures were pretty much flat all of last evening, and I awoke at 3:15am to a down 250 level. By the open, futures were pointing to down ~700. It opened there, got as down as -850, and closed down 700 points on the day.
COVID case growth and coverage of it is a fine explanation for market volatility today, but again the performance in structured credit today – mortgages, loans, etc. – paints a different picture. Threats of tariffs with Europe probably did not help, and neither did ongoing polls showing Biden’s lead over Trump continuing to grow.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Well this was one of the crazier 24 hours in quite some time, more so for what happened last night than today. Futures opened up about 100 points last night, and slowly inched higher for the first couple hours into the evening. Around 6:30pm pacific/9:30pm eastern, my devices starting blowing up that futures had collapsed 400 points (so a net swing of over 500 points) after “White House advisor, Pete Navarro, announced that the phase one China trade deal was over.”
Well, it turns out, not for the first time, Navarro was speaking hyperbolically. Within 30 minutes futures came roaring back to even. President Trump took to the airwaves to say that the trade deal is “fully intact.” I decided to watch the replay of Navarro’s Fox interview, and it was rather obvious that it was a long-winded question and the answer was disconnected from that portion of the question. Regardless, by 3:30am this morning futures were up 300 points.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures were pointing down as much as ~300 points Sunday night (netted for fair value), though that number improved as the night went along. By 3:15am this morning they were pointing to a flat market open. The market traded down ~200 points early and closed up over 150 points, in a 400-point range today …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
• There is a solution of the problem of always having a reason to sell, and always having a reason to buy: It is – always having a plan …
• The nation’s debt is talked about as much any topic in the political/economic sphere, but rarely talked about with any real practical sense of what the eventual possible outcomes actually look like. Today we provide five crystalized options for what eventually comes of America’s national debt. This is crucially important for people who care about their kids and grandkids, and people who don’t.
• The “financialization” of the American economy is happening right before our eyes, and it is a major consequence of the monetary regime in which we live. It needs to be understood – the good, bad, and ugly.
• Why inflationary efforts are creating more deflation – an economic primer you will love, and your college professors never gave (or got themselves)
• Proof that dividend growth requires active management, and that passively trying to get it will ensure you lose it
• Small-cap investing is very promising coming out of recessions, and if you think dividend growth needs active management, you should see the data in small-cap!
• The economy is picking back up – but wow does it have a lot of work to do. Check out the updated data from air travel, restaurant reservations, retail shopping, and more. And then, check out what really, really matters – business investment. Some investors are focusing on mall traffic in Q2 of 2020. We are focusing on industrial production in Q1 of 2021.
• The Chart of the Week tells you why the market keeps embarrassing not just bears, but those who don’t understand how markets work
• And in Politics & Money, look at worst news imaginable for President Trump, and the best news imaginable … all at once.
It’s an action packed Dividend Cafe, so jump on in … There is no U.S. Open to watch, so you really have no excuse.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures overnight dipped 400 points by my bed time, were basically back to even at 3:15am, and then dipped a tad before the 5:30am release on jobless claims. That number came in at 1.5 million, and the market didn’t respond. We opened down and reached down -270 before reversing. It was a bouncy day but never was the range of movement very wide.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market futures pointed down 100 last night, up 200 at 3:00 in the morning, and eventually opened dead flat. The market was quite boring most of the day, and closed down 170 points, dropping in the final hour of trading (just minutes after I told the Wall Street Journal how nice it was to be up or down less than 50 points).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Market futures last night were up 400+ points and the Nikkei in Japan soared over 1,000 points (+5%) overnight. I woke up this morning to a +520 in the Dow futures, and an hour later a report popped that futures were up “amid reports that Trump is preparing a $1 trillion infrastructure proposal.” There is one little problem with the reports that the market futures were up on reports of this infrastructure proposal … they had been up for 13 hours before that “story” broke. And of course, it is no story at all, as we shall see in our public policy section below.
On the day markets closed up 527 points. The VIX dropped a bit over 2% – not a lot – but is down 23%+ from the high level of Thursday. Markets were up 800 points, and at one point were back to even, but again, closed up over 500. Intra-day volatility is alive and well.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Replay of National Call Market Outlook with TBG CIO and Founder, David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice Associates.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
1,800 points came off the Dow in one day, the fourth worst day of the year by the way, and while I spent significant time unpacking it, studying it, and understanding it, I did not spend any time "sweating" it. As you will see in the content of this week's Dividend Cafe, I believe there is very little evidence of health-related issues at this time to drive markets lower (i.e. so-called "second wave" rhetoric)
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market declined 1,800 points today behind a conflation of factors we will unpack below. Futures were pointing to down 200 at bed time last night, were down over 500 at 3:15am, and dropped more than 850 points from then until the market open. We opened down that much, and then throughout the day saw new intra-day lows hit, as the yield curve flattened and some of the recent high flyers sold off a great deal
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was all over the map today, with futures up last night at bed time, flat this morning, then up, then down, etc. This is today’s intra-day chart for the Dow – a snooze fest compared to March volatility, of course, but rather substantial up/down movements as far as normal market days go, closing near low levels of the day.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Is the market about to go through a period of “rotation?” Growth vs. Value, Large Cap vs. Small-Cap, Cyclicals vs. Defensives - does it even matter? Our investment committee is back together, sheltering in place at our own studio, bringing you our perspective on all these subjects and more.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market rallied another 460+ points today, and the S&P closed back where it started the year (so not quite back to its all-time high, but back to its New Years Eve level). The Dow has a little more work to do still. The entire thing is surreal.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I find it inconceivable that we will not have up and down volatility at some point in the near future. But I am not surprised by this market's resilience. The forward-looking capabilities of the market are powerful, even though they are more often subject to excess. On the downside and the upside - no perfect equilibrium can ever be found. This is why market timing is the errand of a fool.
I hope and pray our society will find a forward-looking optimism, as well. That what is wrong in our country can be fixed by that which is right in our country. Believe it or not, even apart from all I care about on these pages regarding the markets and investment capital, it is to those greater ends that I work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The weekly jobless claims came in at 1.87 million, and continuing claims totaled 21.5 million. We will get the official unemployment number for the month of May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow morning. The numbers today were about as bad as expected if not a bit worse, whereas yesterday’s number was exponentially better than expected. More on all of that in tomorrow’s Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market exploded 527 points higher today, now well past 26,000 on the Dow, and in the high range of our general short term target. REIT’s, financials, and energy names led the way today. And while the question of, “how can markets be going higher when ___” are completely understandable and reasonable, the answer(s) remain no different regardless of how you fill in that blank. First, markets need no reason to do what they do in either direction, ever. Second, they are forward-looking and have incredible knack for shaking off what they know will be out of the news in days if not hours. Third, the Fed. Fourth, the economic re-opening is going very well. And finally, fifth, the Fed.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Early on in the COVID affair my general feeling was that the most ignored yet needed data point was the recovery rate, as first three people I knew tested positive and quickly recovered, then eight, then twenty, then ~thirty, etc. The key timing issue was that a significant portion of the people I knew early on that tested positive were already recovered by the time they got their test results, as back then getting the test, and getting the results, had a nearly ten day lag from the time one initially had symptoms bad enough to warrant getting tested. Here we are nearly three months later and I am sure we have less of a percentage who already recovered by the time they get test results (because of improved testing), but I still strongly suspect “recoveries” are rampant (we intuitively know this, and empirically know it), yet the data has either no way to capture it, or a big lag in capturing it.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is the Replay of the National Video Call hosted by David L. Bahnsen- Markets are continuing to shock investors and a wide array of interpretations of health data and economic data are circulating. We will delve into all of this and more.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I am constantly challenging myself to get my applications of “first things” right in the investment world, but my principles themselves are not constantly changing. I say that with pride. The challenge that exists for the investment professional who has done the work of developing operative principles is to constantly evaluate their application of said principles, to alter, change, adjust, or modify as needed. And here is the other piece to that: To thoughtfully consider what it would mean to their client’s capital if they were wrong. Investing client funds as if one can not be wrong in investment application/execution/implementation is the height of arrogance. The humility to constantly check one’s work and one’s strategic thinking is a money-saving character trait. Sometimes it gets forced upon you in my business.
So this week’s Dividend Cafe focuses on many first principles in investing, and many beliefs we have about executing on our principles. But it also hopefully reflects the humility that is needed in risk management.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market pointed to a modest up opening this morning in the overnight futures, and it did just that. And the market stayed up ~100-200 points throughout the day, until the final hour of trading where it went from +150 to -150. The media has reported it as a combination of news that POTUS was signing an executive order trying to reign in social media companies as well as news that the White House would hold a press conference Friday to discuss some aspect of the China relationship. I believe it was entirely the latter and not at all the former (the social media flexing was known to be coming all day, and surely the market does not see it as having a lot of teeth). The uncertainty around the China announcement was surely worth a couple hundred points …
The weekly jobless claims came in at 2.1 million, down from the 2.5 million level of last week, and way down from the 6.9 million high level in late March, but still extremely high, and extremely sad. The number had been just 212,000 per week on average in January and February before the economic shutdown. Continuing claims, though, tallying the unemployment benefits of state programs, fell last week for the first time since the COVID moment began.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
First of all, please note our bi-weekly national video call this coming Monday, June 1, at 11:00am pacific time. I plan to address some things Monday I have not yet addressed through this COVID period, and invite your presence on the call.
The market exploded 550 points higher today and is now up over 1,100 points in the last two days and ~2,500 points in less than two weeks. Without any direct news or events to explain the increase, broad-based optimism about the economic re-opening is certainly the most logical explanation. I would definitely read today’s Market Technicals for more color here.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was up 530 points today behind extraordinary optimism in economic re-opening and directional good news on a vaccine development (more on both below – a lot on the health side). Futures had pointed to a ~300 point move higher throughout Memorial Day,and the Nikkei in Japan surged over 500 points last night (now back above 21,000). Futures in the U.S. were +500 when I woke up this morning, and the Dow was at one point +700 on the day. We closed just a pinch below the 25,000 level on the Dow
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
And in this week's Dividend Cafe we are going to dive into a bunch of these subjects - not because they are abnormal or extraordinary, but because they are normal. The normal reality of financial markets and of being engaged in the management of such continues its beat. And though I far prefer to do my analysis and work from my office with my team versus the sub-optimal conditions of quarantine, I embrace this normalcy, and welcome the challenge of both this moment, but all future challenges and opportunities as well.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was down a hundred points today, and basically stayed between flat and down one hundred all day. Oil remains around $34/barrel. Muni bonds continued about ten consecutive days of trading well. Corporates were off a tad. And syndicated loans seemed to be up a tad despite equity markets being off a tad.
Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 2.4 million, bringing the total number to 38 million since the COVID pandemic began (~8 million of those 38 million, though, are no longer on unemployment, presumably having found new jobs or re-secured their old job).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market rallied +370 points today, making back the points it was down yesterday, leaving the Dow through Wednesday with the nearly +1,000 point gain from Monday. Oil is approaching $34 after a +5% move today. It was a healthy day for risk assets across the board. And speaking of health, there is some truly good news to report on that front as well …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was down 100 points or so in pre-market at 3:15am today, and stayed close to flat or modestly down until the open. It bounced a round a bit, then found the flat line and stayed there most of the day, before then seeing a substantial sell-off in the last 45 minutes of trading (see chart below). A report circulated just before the market sell-off that yesterday’s positive report on early phase vaccine trials may have been incomplete in some of its data. If that was indeed the reason for the sell-off, then these markets are a lot more susceptible to pops and drops around [silly?] vaccine headlines than I would have thought.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
What I want to do, starting in this week’s Dividend Cafe, but really in the weeks and months to come, is to examine the truly significant macroeconomic forces that are relevant to investors, and to explore investment solutions that match the moment. I do not believe advisors and investors can consider solutions intelligently if they have not considered what they are trying to solve intelligently. So to that end, we work. Join us, in this week’s Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market closed up almost 400 points today after an intra-day session that was surely one of the weirdest I have seen in a couple weeks. Futures were down 100-200 all morning pre-market, and went down further after the initial jobless claims number came in at 2.98 million (the number had been expected to be closer to 2.7 million). The market went down as much as 450 points before rallying back and really zigging and zagging (with no apparent news) throughout the day, closing at the highs into a rally.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Futures were down last night, then up this morning, then went flat just as the market opened this morning. By the time the market open was catching steam downward pressure was on stocks, and that downward pressure accelerated a few hours after the open, and then stayed down but level the rest of the day. Stocks actually closed 180 points off their low of the day, but still down 500 points on the day.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In the height of market violence throughout March and April it was routine that the overnight futures would do one thing, the opening the next morning something totally different, and the action throughout the day something different still. Sometimes even then there was no clarity as to how things would end up as 400+ point moves down or up even in the final hour of trading were extremely common (either as reversals or pile-ons). Lately the futures I have seen before bed time, the futures I wake up to around 3:00am, and the market opening levels have all been pretty in line with one another. There have been late day trading reversals (as I highlighted most days last week), but the futures and the opening levels have been pretty consistent.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The S&P was flat today, the Nasdaq was up, and the Dow was down 100 points, so let’s call it a flat day overall. We will cover our normal categories and take a few detours as well as we launch another market week in the midst of this COVID pandemic …
As for health data, the 1.5% case growth over the weekend is what we have been waiting for – the smallest case growth in the U.S. since all of this began. And all analysis indicates we will see new cases and case growth % really decline from here. If the new cases had declined with a substantially lower weekend testing number that would be less noteworthy, but the testing stayed quite elevated all weekend. The positive ratio to total tests was just 7.8% yesterday, and our trend level for total tests is right around 300,000 per day now.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week’s Dividend Cafe will do all it generally sets out to do. We will look at the overall economy, and I even close with something I don’t often do: A summary of our short term, medium term, and long term outlooks. There is quite a deep dive into the jobs data, the economic picture, the state of the U.S. energy industry, some post-COVID economic realities, and much, much more. But there also is a sober assessment of something else – the human toll of non-productivity – the impact to joy and fulfillment when people are cut off from productive activity. It is the heart of our tragic moment.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Happy “Flash Crash” anniversary, to those who remember that fateful day (ten years ago today). I remember it like it was yesterday, ending a meeting with clients early (who were sitting in my office facing me at the time, as I faced the television over their shoulders that was informing me of the collapsing market). I began trading in client accounts heavily after the prematurely-ended meeting, and for the first time in my life saw ETF’s broken, bid-ask spreads broken, and wild mistakes in trading execution. It was simply crazy, and only in the weeks (and to some degree, years) ahead did we really understand what had happened, how, and why. Today we don’t have a Flash Crash, and have not exactly had one since May 6, 2010. But we do have incredible risk around liquid ETF’s made up of illiquid assets. I need to attention this issue more diligently in the post-COVID months ahead.
I am trying to “tighten up” the daily missive, and better organize/structure it each day around: • Health Data • Market Technicals • Public Policy • Oil & Energy • Housing • Fed News
I am hoping this predictable, consistent sequence will both reflect the general priorities readers have in some way, and make for a more succinct and digestible read. And of course, I do welcome your feedback and suggestions …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market was up 300+ points most of the day today, and just as the sell-off faded yesterday, the rally faded today, with the market closing up 133 points (though the S&P was up 34 bps more than the Dow).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
I learned a lot in the month of April as well, and I want to share it with you today. I am either excited to tell you or sorry to tell you that this week's Dividend Cafe is the longest one I have ever written, but also the most important one I have ever written. The length of it is just simply because of the sheer ambition of all I am trying to cover this week. There are some investment opportunities that have been created out of these last two months that warrant the attention I have given them this week. But there also are lessons learned and principles reinforced that I am excited to share.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
After the big move up the last two days, we closed the extraordinary month of April with a down-300 point day.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 3.8 million, bringing the aggregate new unemployment claims since the COVID crisis began to ~30 million.
Oil prices for the June contract were up ~$4 today (+25%), and are up ~$8 since Monday. April ends up being the biggest month up in the stock market since January 1987 (+11.1% for the Dow and +12.7% for the S&P).
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The Bahnsen Group Investment Committee is back together for the first time in weeks to discuss all matters of the market, Covid, and investing.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The futures were pointing down 80-100 points without a lot of activity last night, yet by the early morning were pointing to a +300 point move higher. The market opened up ~400, bounced around throughout the day, and closed today down a tad. But the big tech companies were down 2-4% all day. But on the other hand, some key REIT’s, materials companies, energy names, and industrials were all up today.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The futures opened yesterday down a pinch and reflected a down 80 or so opening for a couple hours. By the time I went to bed U.S. futures were pointing up 100, and more interestingly, the Nikkei was up over 400 points (see why below). I woke up to the futures pointing up 200 points at 3:30am, and the June delivery contract on WTI oil down 17% to just over $14/barrel. (The disconnect between short term oil futures and equities is a sight to behold).
The market opened up ~100 points, and throughout the day traded up about +250 (most of the day). Oil was down ~20% most of the day even as, once again, most energy stocks were higher. Financial stocks were the huge leadership names today. The Dow ended up closing +360 points, just off the highs of the day.
Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Last week’s national video call brought to you podcast listeners in audio form - COVID, two market phases, and what to do from here.
Watch the call and follow along with the slides here - https://youtu.be/pt-wO73Y8to
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It has been a fascinating week in the markets, with oil tanking, but the energy sector way up; with the markets up and down every day; with some bond sectors rallying, and others selling off. Some degree of non-correlation between asset classes seems to be sneaking back into play, and non-correlation is the hallmark of normalcy. Now, we have a long, long way to go ... but there were interesting green shoots this week in each
But the various developments in the markets this week are not the full heart of Dividend Cafe this week. The heart of this weekly commentary is how to think about portfolio balance right now, what diversification really means, and what government stimulus and Fed interventions do and do not mean for your portfolio.
So shut down your Zoom, turn off your Netflix, and do your third walk of the dog for the day later. And jump on in to the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The week of April 6 was the biggest “up” week in markets on a percentage basis since 1974. Last week (with up and down volatility) was another solid up week, whereas some tempering of the prior week’s rally had been expected. Coming into this week, I certainly figured some tempering of the prior two weeks rally would not be surprising, and we dropped 500-600 points Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday’s 450 point increase cut into that, and now today the Dow ended up a tad, but had been up 300 points before seeing that fade.
Futures were basically flat all night last night and stayed as such this morning from 3:15am until 5:30am when the weekly jobless claims number came. The number came in at 4.4 million, down from last week’s 5.5 million but in line with expectations, and futures went from down a bit to up 100. The market hit its high levels in the first couple hours of the day, and just slowly faded throughout the day. Energy and Alternative Asset Managers were the standouts today.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market rallied quite a bit today, coming off of the two ~600 point down days that started the week. Oil prices were up 22% (from their very low level, mind you) and they are at least now only showing the June contract vs. the delivery/storage fiasco in the May contract that was taking place Monday and Tuesday. Futures were pointing to a 250-point increase when I woke up this morning, and throughout the day markets traded roughly between +250 and +500. The +450 close was off of the high of the day that came ten minutes before the close.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We cover the market, the latest in health data, plenty on housing prices, the PPP Part Two stimulus program, and oil prices - plus more
Links mentioned in this episode: CovidAndMarkets.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The week went essentially much as I expected in the markets – the health data continues to point towards marked improvement, but not quite yet a full re-opening; markets did not continue the violent rally of last week, but had some modest volatility both up and down; and the economic data from March was awful, with all eyes and ears focused on where we go from here.
On the week, as of press time, the market is down a tiny bit on the week, but that comes with some decent sized up days and down days along the way (down 300, up 600, down 300, up 700). I am very excited about this week’s Dividend Cafe, and hope you will see why when you read it.
• Is life about to change forever and ever? • Is a “new normal” coming, and what does it mean? • Will the next 12 months be a bear market or a bull market (from here)? • What really happened in March at the points of maximum market distress? • Long-term ramifications of this COVID-19 experience • And so much more
So jump on in to the Dividend Cafe. I promise it will be a refreshing commentary on markets and the economy for investors who deserve better than the sensationalistic or self-serving garbage often posing as commentary.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The Dividend Cafe Podcast will now add a Daily Covid and Markets reporting with the latest on the many aspects of the capital markets affected by COVID-19.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market week is cut short by the Good Friday holiday this week, but investors liked what they received out of the four days markets were open. Monday represented one of the biggest up days in market history, and Wednesday and Thursday added to the rally, with the Dow now a stunning 5,500 points off its March 23 low level (which was itself an intra-day number).
No, we do not know what equities will do next week, but we do know that the Federal Reserve gave markets a lot of news this week, and that will be the primary focus of the Dividend Cafe. But if you want to understand what it all means for the economy at-large, for housing, for bond investors, and for those just sort of wondering when our country is going to re-open, we invite you to jump into this week's very special Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
As I am taping Friday morning a short while into the final market session of the week, the market is nearly flat on the week (modestly down at this point). That came with a big move up Monday, a modest move down Tuesday, a huge move down Wednesday, a decent move up Thursday, and so far, early on Friday, a “flattish” day (though off a bit – again, moving as I type).
Note the theme? A “flat” week in markets, but with huge volatility day by day by day.
Why did markets go up 500 points the day the worst jobless claims data in history came out? Why did markets not tank on the news of the worst unemployment data in ten years? Because markets do not go down on news they already knew was coming. Period. I am confused by media and financial professionals who do not seem to understand this, but I take seriously my obligation to help you, readers of Dividend Cafe, understand this.
Because markets are “discounting mechanisms,” pricing in today what they believe about tomorrow, “good news” cannot make markets rally unless it was not already expected, and “bad news” cannot make markets drop unless it, too, was not expected.
And if you know someone who has not known that in the midst of this national shutdown, that jobs data was not atrociously bad, I really don’t know what to say. The key, my friends, is where we go from here, and that itself is riddled with uncertainty. So let’s unpack as much uncertainty as we can, and jump into a fruitful and useful Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
As of broadcast time, the market has moved significantly higher on the week, bouncing in a meaningful way Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week (after further sell-off Monday). As I record Friday morning, the market shows down (but it is early). We all know that we don’t know what the rest of the day (or weekend) will bring.
This very special Dividend Cafe (long, but I think we all have extra reading time this weekend) attempts to combine a lot of investment application, macroeconomic commentary, and basic financial wisdom, into one trip to the Dividend Cafe. Jump on in.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The utter insanity of today's financial markets continued in Sunday evening futures action, Monday morning futures action, and throughout the day Monday. The largest Federal Reserve announcement yet came, and plenty needs to be said about the so-called "fiscal stimulus bazooka."
Today's special Dividend Cafe provides as much explanation of these crazy times as we can muster, and offers yet more practical guidance on surviving the bear market we are presently enduring.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
There is a Friday Dividend Cafe coming – I do not know when – where the basic tone will be celebratory, and the underlying emotion will be relief. Some lift in equities, some normalization in credit, and some feeling that the worst is all behind us – that Dividend Cafe is coming. Will it be next week or months down the line? I do not know. But I look forward to writing it, and I imagine many of you look forward to reading it.
This week is not that week, and I believe this week’s Dividend Cafe does as much to make sense of everything going on and where we are headed than anything I have written so far. I also do believe the national call we hosted on Tuesday remains current in explaining our outlook.
In the meantime, the country as a whole, not just investors, remain in a period of uncertainty and challenge. And out of this uncertainty and challenge, I believe will come much better days. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Join TBG Chief Investment Officer for a National Conference Call where he delves deep into the reasoning behind the massive moves in the markets over the last three weeks. Share it with your friends!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
If one looks at the rapidity with which this market has sold off, the levels to which it has sold off, and the stressors that currently exist in our financial system and society at large, there is surely a lot of anxiety and uncertainty that permeates. This special Dividend Cafe will get into a handful of things that just simply must be said, offers a podcast from our Investment Committee, and addresses a lot of what is going on in the world that may help explain this crazy mess. Please, if you have time, join us in the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It is so hard to stick to my normal Dividend Cafe format these days (not that anyone cares). I am trying to write two per week, and the markets are changing minutes after certain segments get written (or more challenging, the news itself alters or stories take on different shapes). On two days this week (Monday and Thursday) the violence of the market drops required additional email communications. Clients receive their special bulletin specific to portfolio holdings on Wednesday, as well. The state of affairs now makes the exact timing and precision of these communications difficult. We hope you understand.
I set it up that way because there are things in flux right now as I type that by the time I submit to my team may change, and by the time you read this may change again. I apologize for that. But that is the state of affairs in which we find ourselves. My feeling is that the market this week went through a Black Monday type day (October 1987). On that fateful day we dropped 22.6% in one day (and it did rebound 6% the next day). This week, going into Friday morning the market is down 18% in four days (and as I sit here in type from a Starbucks on 47th Street at 5:30am eastern, the market looks set to open up 5%). So while the violence was four days, not one, and 23% is a lot more than 18%, there is still the same feeling of shock and horror and the rapidity with which this all happened.
I am dedicating this week’s Dividend Cafe to what happened this week, what has to happen from here for markets to (a) normalize, (b) begin recovery, and (c) finish recovery. It is a long one, but hopefully easy to read and useful to your understanding and thinking about this crisis.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Please go to dividendcafe.com to read this important post*
I wrote an awful lot of stuff over the weekend for this special mid-week Dividend Cafe. I wrote about the bizarre reality that with three days last week that the market was down nearly 1,000 points (Friday's was intra-day, but it did come back at the end of the day), the market was actually up 450 points last week. I wrote about various peripheral economic and market realities that I thought useful in the fuller context of the current state of affairs. And then Monday happened, and I have spent the 3 am - 6 am hours of Tuesday morning re-writing the entire thing.
I hesitate to even mention that as I type, the market futures are pointing to a 650+ point jump in the market (it had been a lot more). First of all, that is just a small part of yesterday's collapse, and secondly, by the time I am done typing this paragraph, let alone by the time you are done reading it, the possibility of reversal or adjustment is extremely high. These are the times in which we find ourselves.
You should have received my bulletin last night on the 11th worst market day in history that was Monday (and the worst day since the financial crisis). I stand behind every word written yesterday afternoon and will be reiterating much of it in this Dividend Cafe. But I really want to dive deeper into the oil saga playing out with Saudi and Russia, and I really want to unpack more of the economic ramifications of the present hysteria. That is what this Dividend Cafe will be devoted to - a bit more meat on the bone, none of which is meant to take away from the fundamental behavioral lessons I am desperately trying to reaffirm in all communications right now.
So jump on into this special Dividend Cafe
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
It's FRIDAY, MARCH 6 - The markets were down over 800 points early but right at this moment are down 650 points. I have no doubt markets will move from here, and I have no idea which direction. Big moves, in either direction, are the daily expectation right now.
This week’s Dividend Cafe offers as much information, guidance, and reality as we are able to muster.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Our Investment Committee's weekly podcast today basically delves into all things market correction, market snap-back rally, coronavirus, and the political landscape shift of the weekend. An important listen in these volatile times. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market ended the month of February with a level of pain in the markets not seen since December of 2018 (fourteen months ago). As of press time Friday morning we have experienced sell-offs every day this week, creating the worst week for markets since the financial crisis. The details are unpacked in the Dividend Cafe … The level of sell-off in the market is discussed but so are a variety of circumstances around it that very much warrant additional analysis. I made the decision this Friday morning to ditch literally pages of commentary and analysis I wrote over the last few days and just write afresh straight from the heart on all that is going on. Please click through and read.
This is not a Dividend Cafe to miss.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The ongoing spread of coronavirus and uncertainty surrounding such pushed markets down a thousand points on the Dow (as of press time), and brought the ten-year bond yield to very near an all-time low. This 3%+ drop in stocks brings the equity market to where it was at the beginning of the year. Bond values continue to surge, offsetting much of the equity value drop for diversified investors.
In this special edition podcast our Investment Committee unpacks what is happening, why, what it means, what it doesn’t mean, and what we are doing (and not doing) about it. We also reiterate our theme of illiquidity-investments for 2020, and shout from the mountaintops the message that we are owners of business, not speculators in the stock market.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We have the whole week unpacked in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and ample commentary on the Fed, earnings, politics and more.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
We cover the market action of the week (at least up until press time) this week. And yes, there are plenty of thoughts and ideas around the present investment environment ... But I also think you will find this week's Dividend Cafe to feature some longer-term reflections on the economy, on long-term challenges that drive so much economic behavior.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Sometimes it is important to remember that “volatile” is not a synonym for “negative.” Volatility refers to “up and down” movement – directionless – choppy – uncertain.
In this week’s Dividend Cafe we do all we need to do to understand the current market volatility, to consider the right portfolio approach to all present state of affairs, and of course to break down one of the most significant political weeks in recent times.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The market has gotten a bit exciting, and this week's special edition Dividend Cafe podcast explores why. We look into what it means, what is causing it, what investors have gotten right, and where we go next.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This is the AUDIO VERSION of Year Ahead/Year Behind annual report read by David L. Bahnsen, Founder, Chief Investment Officer, Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group.
Topics discussed: This paper is a must read or listen for clients of The Bahnsen Group, as we unpack 2019 in review, evaluate what we were saying a year ago versus how things played out, and most importantly, do a deep dive on what we expect in 2020. A new decade is underway, and this piece provides actionable perspective on what investors ought to be thinking and doing in this pivotal time.
Click on the link below to download the written piece so you can access the charts and listen to every word of what has been an annual tradition of The Bahnsen Group.
Links mentioned in this episode: https://thebahnsengroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2020-year-ahead-published.pdf DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The market dropped 450 points today as fears and uncertainties around the Chinese coronavirus make their way through the markets. In this special edition podcast with our whole investment committee we make the case for “don’t just do something, stand there” as the right investor response to the present news. We appeal to history, market realities, health epidemic precedents, and basic trade economics to make the case for avoiding panic, and letting an unresolved problem get resolved. Please give it a listen, and please reach out with any questions you may have.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Markets re-opened Tuesday this week after the MLK holiday on Monday, and experienced some modest moves to the downside on the week as of Thursday's press time ... But in a shortened market week where the big political news (impeachment hearings) are completely ignored by markets, and where there is no notable macroeconomic news or Federal Reserve announcements to process, it gives us a great opportunity to catch up on other topics not given enough attention in the Dividend Cafe.
We'll talk shale this week, viral fears in China, why a high bond supply does the opposite to interest rates that most people expect, and we spend a lot of time in Politics & Money ...
So jump on into the Dividend Cafe. It's a good one.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: We are too early into earnings season to have much to say and the impeachment/political 'stuff' is enough to exhaust anyone. But 'global macroeconomics' - this is the stuff that gets us out of bed in the morning. And that's what we did this morning - we got out of bed and we talked global macro for you all. This is a not-to-be-missed Dividend Cafe podcast from our whole investment committee ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Managing Director, Partner Deiya Pernas and Director of Equity Research discuss the TBG client portfolio construction and infrastructure, equity and market hightlights of the week.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
As of press time Thursday it has been another strong week in markets, with the formal signing of the phase one-U.S/China trade deal, a strong start to earnings season, and the continued general feeling that this is a good market in a good economy. Of course, life is never that simple, and markets are really never that simple, so we have a lot more to say about everything.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: We have a full Dividend Cafe to bring you today. The news cycle did not slow down for the new year, and indeed, we have already opened the year with a slew of geopolitical events that add drama to capital markets.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: But first, I would direct you all to the annual white paper I do every year recapping the year behind us and offering our perspective on the year in front of us - Year Ahead/Year Behind. I believe you will find it to be an informative and useful tool in understanding the recent past and considering the immediate future. Share with any you would like.
Links mentioned in this episode: A Year Ahead/A Year Behind DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Consider this week’s Dividend Cafe an early Christmas present, not just because of Brexit and the phase one China trade deal and, of course, a 2019 in risk assets that has been one for the ages … but mostly because this is essentially a double issue Dividend Cafe with ample coverage on all the things you should be caring about right now as an investor. Because there will not be a Dividend Cafe next week we doubled up for you this week, so take a break from wrapping presents, grab a coffee (or egg nog), and jump on into the Dividend Cafe …
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: On Friday the regular Dividend Café for the week went out, and it included as much of an update as possible around the UK elections and the China trade war … But within hours of the submission there was more news, and then the next day even more, and then over the weekend even more still. I don’t want to wait until Friday to provide the latest and greatest … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The markets ripped higher and I will unpack more details when you click into this week's Dividend Cafe ... Since the market’s massive rally last Friday after mind-numbing good jobs numbers the market had barely budged this week. The Democrats in the House filed articles of impeachment against the President this week. The Fed stood still on interest rates. And the British voters headed to the polls to elect their Prime Minister. It wasn’t a boring week in the world, just in the market (until Thursday morning). So this week we’ll dive into the jobs data, the strength of the economy, the vulnerabilities in the economy, the pending tariff deadline, and all sorts of big things. It’s a whopper of info, so let’s get caffeinated in the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Welcome to the final month of 2019! I. Love. December. I love it no matter what the market does. I love it no matter what the news cycle is doing. It is just a wonderful time of year, and I have done my best to bring in this special month with a special Dividend Cafe - covering all the ups and downs in the market this week, really meaty stuff on the trade war, the most important thing I could ever say about "perma-bears," the timely reality under-pinning dividend growth, and a really crucial economic lesson. I think this is the best Dividend Cafe of the year (okay, maybe I say that too much), but jump on in and let's get in the December spirit ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Thanksgiving is the one week of the year, where we bypass market commentary and economic analysis in the Dividend Café. It serves as a logical week to take a break from the Fed, global GDP growth, the trade war, earnings, and market valuations. And affirmatively, we should be doing a Thanksgiving edition of Dividend Café every week, because that is how much gratitude we have at The Bahnsen Group.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In this week’s special Dividend Cafe podcast and video, The Bahnsen Group’s Investment Committee dives into the economic policy platform of surging Democratic nominee, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Some refreshers on dividend taxation are in order, and so much more. A pre-Thanksgiving special edition!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: As of press time mid-day on Thursday, the market was down about 250 points on the week, which is not noteworthy in that 250 points is nothing, especially divided by 28,000, and especially because it is three or four days of action. I only mention it because (a) Some of you are getting bored by the low volatility market of the last few weeks and this makes it sound like markets moved, and (b) Some of the chatter behind the couple points we moved are interesting.
But I am not going to pretend that there is much substance behind a 250 point move; markets can move 250 points on a sneeze! What I will do this week is provide some history, provide some economics, and provide some perspective – because frankly, I don’t think there are a lot of other places to get it right now! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: We have spent way too much time talking about the trade war, tariffs, the Fed, and Trump this year, and not nearly enough time talking about sustainable growth in the emerging markets. Our Investment Committee thoroughly unpacks what we believe to be one of the more intriguing parts of our investing worldview at The Bahnsen Group in this extensive and thought-provoking discussion.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Greetings from New York City where I actually spent a day in Connecticut this week with clients and another day in Boston with clients and investment banks. I am en route back to California as this is being delivered to you, where I will immediately experience a 50-degree bump in weather from departure city to arrival city.
Markets had no such weather volatility this week as things were reasonably tame yet again (at least as of press time). This has thus far been a very flat week in markets both from start to finish but also intra-day as well. I think the reason for that is examined in a clear and understandable way in this week's Dividend Cafe.
But I strive to do a lot more in the Dividend Cafe this week than just look at the week that was in markets ... We look at the full scope of the China trade status, going into 2020, we look at the cash on the sidelines of the American economy, and we look at where growth can be expected to be for years to come (this is my favorite section of the Dividend Cafe this week!). I even offer a periodic reminder on the realities of gold investing, and of course, offer the normal mix of politics and money. Click on in, check it out, and welcome to the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: I am quite happy to say that this week's market saw several new all-time highs reached (Dow and S&P 500) - more on that in the Dividend Cafe - but additionally happy to say that the reason for such was largely centered around pretty significant movement in the China trade talks ... So we unpack at great length this week all going on with the trade talks, and we also cover the math of "all-time highs." We also get to discuss manufacturing, the crazy IPO market, the reason people like the stock market right now (us too!), and so much more. This is a weekly Dividend Cafe I am proud of - click on in ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Our 14th annual New York due diligence trip featuring 20+ meetings with top portfolio managers, economic strategists, and alternatives partners was a whirlwind, and in this special podcast, we invite you into the key takeaways for us on this significant trip.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: And just like that, we find ourselves in the month of November, a stunningly quick completion of the first ten months of the year. This means that we are now officially in the holiday season, that the Presidential election is only one year away, and that end of the year portfolio re-positionings are on the top of everyone's mind (okay, not everyone's, but at least ours).
This week's market produced all-time highs in the S&P 500, and this week's Dividend Cafe looks at why that is, how painfully unintelligent it is to think that "an all-time high" is something to be afraid of, and why the Fed did what they did this week. There is plenty to chew on, so please do grab a coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Greetings from New York City where we are approaching the end of an intense week of meetings, discussions, debates, analysis, and soon, decisions. It has been invigorating and we still have a couple of days of meetings to go, so a more comprehensive download will linger for another week. But in the meantime, this week's Dividend Cafe will recap the week in markets, offer an update on the Fed, explore the latest on NAFTA 2.0, seek to scare you a bit, and seek to encourage you a bit. There is also yet another pretty comprehensive analysis of the political landscape and what it means to markets right now. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe, and let's explore the latest and greatest in the world of investing.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Greetings from the financial capital of the world that is New York City where I have officially begun my annual "due diligence" week, and where another week in the markets deserves comprehensive analysis. We focus our efforts this week on what was done and not done in the "pre-written, phase one" trade deal, but we also delve into Brexit, the yield curve, Elizabeth Warren proposals, and even the lottery this week. But one thing I ask this week - persevere through all the weekly commentary to get to the "economic lesson" of the week. It is the subject most near and dear to my heart this week, and hopefully will be well worth the listen. So jump on into the Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The market loved the word Friday that the trade war talks did not blow up, and that they, in fact, have created the possibility of a reasonably positive “phase one” deal. The issues around the trade war and their impact on the economy, the market, and the political atmosphere, are all so significant, they warranted a SPECIAL podcast discussion with our investment committee. So listen or view below as you wish, and reach out with any questions! This is a very comprehensive discussion of the whole matter, and you deserve to have the misinformation made right.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Some day-to-day volatility in the market unsurprisingly surfaced in markets this week as we were down 100, down 300, then up 200 the first three days of the week, all around various chitter-chatter as to where China-trade talks were or were expected to be or were rumored to go or whatever ... This is a frustrating Dividend Cafe to send because I have no choice in terms of the timeline but to submit it before we have gotten real reports on how the trade talks have gone Thursday, and yet you will be receiving this Friday and of course by now there may very well be some updated report as to how the status of such talks. Of course, by early next week, I will provide an interim Dividend Cafe to give an update on the state of affairs ...
The trade talks are the largest macro issue to watch right now, as once again the futures market has all but fully priced in another Fed quarter-point rate cut (at the October FOMC meeting at the end of the month). But markets are likely to respond to earnings results as the new season kicks off this coming week. Expectations are again reduced so how companies report revenue and profit results from the quarter that just was, and what sort of guidance they offer about expected results in the quarters ahead, are very likely to move the needle (in the overall market level, and of course in individual company results).
This week's Dividend Cafe is really focused on the economy, the Fed, politics, and earnings. We look at a preview of earnings season, the idea of a QE4 coming, a deeper dive on economic indicators, and of course, Politics and Money. Grab your coffee, and jump on into the Dividend Cafe ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
As hard as it may be to focus on anything other than political drama and the China trade war, we actually have an earnings season starting next week. Listen in or watch as our Investment Committee dives into all our expectations and thoughts of the earnings season that is about to begin, and what it means for investors.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: As of press time the market was down significantly on the week, down approximately 800 points on the Dow since Tuesday morning. Believe it or not, Tuesday/Wednesday were the first back-to-back days of down over 1% (each day) in the S&P 500 all year. We need to look at what the issues are in the market, what to expect as we get into the fourth quarter, and look at the variety of issues that actually matter right now in markets and the world economy. From manufacturing to impeachment and lots of politics, we have it all in this week's Dividend Cafe.
- This Week's Market Drop
- Manufacturing and Services Sector Data
- The Trade War's Effect on the Economy
- Markets and Impeachment
- Europe is a Debacle
- Politics and Markets
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: What does history tell us about political ramifications to one’s portfolio decision-making? What are the four categories we look at when evaluating political relevance to market action? And what ought investors do in these highly complicated times? This latest podcast/vidcast from our investment committee provides a quality perspective on how to think about the present environment, and will leave you with actionable takeaways on what should be done, and just as importantly, what should not be.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: With the trade war still front and center in the global economy, earning season three weeks away, and continued questions about the Fed’s plans floating around, why did all market conversations seem to slip into the background this week? Oh yes, the perpetual reality show that is Washington D.C. took over the news this week, and it has led to maybe the most political Dividend Café of recent memory. Now fear not, there is ample coverage of U.S. economic health, monetary policy, and the investment issues near and dear to your heart, but some extensive political-economic commentary is warranted this week. So jump on into the Dividend Café, and we’ll do our best to offend no one, or everyone.
- Mandatory Fed Discussion
- An economic reality check
- Summary of the economic outlook
- Are households vulnerable to equity prices?
- Small-cap warning
- Big word jargon to describe Fed failures
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Our investment committee creates this podcast for you to tackle a variety of issues pertinent to investors. The mass increase in the popularity of index funds is the latest topic, only we don’t do it with the dryness and academic focus many advisors may pour on this topic. Rather, we delve into the subject of index funds with a view towards what matters to investors, where risks may actually exist, and what we believe can be done about it. This is worth your time to listen to or view!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Some weeks are filled with little news but lots of market volatility, and then there are weeks like this one, where there actually was very little market volatility, but a lot of news. In this week's Dividend Cafe, we dive into what will be some of the biggest news events of the year, and question why there wasn't a bigger market impact from it all. Investors wanting to understand better what the Fed did this week, what they didn't do, why they did it, and what it means to them, will be well-served to jump into the Dividend Cafe!
We won't just leave you with a little Fed discussion and some thoughts on Oil and the Saudi attack ... The dollar, the trade war, negative yields, and even fracking get a little attention as well. This is a "do not miss" visit to the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
4/5ths of The Bahnsen Group's investment committee tackles this week's outlook on the Fed and interest rates, the dicey situation with Iran and the market's response, and most importantly; What makes a good stock?
Topics discussed: One can be forgiven for assuming the trade war ended in looking at the market. On August 14 (one month ago) the Dow was below 25,500. At press time this week, the Dow is at 27,200, so nearly a 2,000 point recovery in one month (and back to the market level we were at before the re-provocation of the trade war leaving July and entering August). How is this possible?
This "cycle" has played out several times over the last 18 months. Where markets go from here really depends on whether or not “any progress is made.” My goal is to unpack some of that this week in the Dividend Cafe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: This week's Dividend Cafe podcast with the entire TBG Investment Committee almost makes it without talking about the trade war, the Fed, or Presidential tweets (not quite). But what we do accomplish this week is a digestible, succinct, informative talk on how portfolios are often constructed, and how they ought to be. You will not be surprised to learn that sometimes those two things are not the same ...
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Despite the shortened market week, we got another display of market uncertainty and persistent volatility this week (though lately the upside volatility has outweighed the downside volatility). We use this week's Dividend Cafe to really jump around the horn and give you a succinct but well-packed punch in the state of markets, the outlook to come, the state of interest rates, the concerns in the economy, the challenges, the bright spots, and everything else. This will prove to be an easy read, so please, jump on in to this week's Dividend Cafe ...
- The Market, The Trade War, The Rate War, The Yield Curve
- What's the Fuss About Brexit
- Where Do Markets Go From Here?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The bulk of the first half of this week's Dividend Cafe is dedicated to that which is most relevant to the markets right here and right now - the latest, the greatest, and all that is fit to print. Trade war, interest rates, the yield curve - I promise you will get sick of all these terms by the time this little era comes to an end.
But the second half has a prolonged section that I believe you will find far more compelling and relevant to your investment strategy. These economic matters are pivotally important to developing the right framework for investing, and I am completely obsessed with studying it, communicating about it, and ultimately, properly positioning client capital in the midst of it. I expect it to be the great duty of the next twenty years of my adult life and calling. So if this sounds dramatic, click on through and see what the fuss is all about.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Subscribe to the Dividend Cafe Podcast
Today’s podcast features our entire Investment Committee in a battle royale (of mostly agreement), talking trade war, markets yields, negative rates, “this time it’s different,” stock sectors, and alternative investments.
Subscribe to the Dividend Café Podcast
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen unpacks everything from the market’s response to "the trade war" and the "the rate war" to where things stand in the ongoing efforts with China, to what the Fed is doing, to the way people are ventilating about the yield curve.
- Market Volatility
- The Trade War
- The Fed and Interest Rates
- Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Fears
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: For many years now we have been using our Dividend Café property to bring you frequent market commentary and portfolio perspective. Last year, we introduced the Fiscal Feminist identity, spear-headed by our very own Kimberlee Davis to address significant financial issues relevant in the lives of women. Today, we bring you a blended Dividend Café/Fiscal Feminist (the Dividend Feminist, or the Fiscal Café – you pick!) – wherein Kimberlee and I discuss together the whole landscape of financial advice, what approach to portfolio construction a new investor ought to take, and how issues pertinent to women and the Dividend Cafe are far more overlapped than many want to believe.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: We know the following things about the last 2-3 weeks in the market:
(A) The China/trade war has blown up (B) The Yield curve has inverted (C) Negative yields persist all over the globe (D) Recession talk is everywhere
So markets are obviously volatile, but it isn’t clear how these above things relate to one another, and people want to know what is going on. What I seek to do in this short, succinct podcast is get right to the point about what is going on – short term, and long term.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: Is volatility back? You tell me - here was the market action this week: Down 400 points Monday, Up 400 points Tuesday. Down 800 points Wednesday. And as I submit this for the week, Thursday (late morning) we are up a little over 100 points (but saw the pre-market futures up and down hundreds of points at a time). There is always one reason for "up & down" volatility (is there any other kind?), and it is uncertainty. In the Dividend Cafe this week we are going to look at the sources of the uncertainty and seek to enhance your understanding of the world affairs that are driving capital markets at present. This has been the most volatile week of the year in the market, with last week being the second most. In other words, since July 31 we really been sitting at non-stop market drama.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Volatility expectations in the weeks/months ahead
- Trade war
- Currency
- Brexit
- Hong Kong
- The Fed
- Asset allocation when the 10-year is 1.65% and equities face uncertainty and volatility
- Within equities, what looks good?
- Energy sector
- Is big tech/new tech dead?
- Low beta or high beta?
- Outlook for dividend growth
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on:
(1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and
(2) The currency implications for global markets
The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time.
- Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that.
- The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks.
In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Dividend Cafe to unpack some foundational things about the U.S. economy. What does the yield curve tell us about a recession? Why has the Fed become so accommodative to capital markets (there is an answer!)? What would make someone want our Fed to not be independent? What do pension funds tell us about the future of asset allocation? What can government spending tell us about the state of economic growth?
If all of these questions are addressed this week, and they are, plus a few MLP and Brexit comments to boot, can you see why I am so excited to have you join me in the Dividend Cafe?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Will the Fed Cut?
- Is a recession coming?
- A look at results of the tax reform bill
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade
- Dividend Cafe; How it All Began
- Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Markets in the first six months of 2019
- Fear of Market Highs
- Where we are in the trade war with China
- Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- What stocks and bonds are saying to markets
- The Fed and Credit Markets
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Fed put vs. Trump call - week #2
- What Mexico Tariffs?
- Business Loses Confidence
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Mr. Tariff Man moves south
- Are tariffs inflationary?
- The Fed's signal to markets.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Effects of trade war on business investment
- Impact is not limited to US and China
- Brexit, The Fed, and more
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Financial Advice vs Human Nature
- China Trade War
- Sovereign Debt
- Fed and Interest Rates
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- The Great Trade Update - Three Options left on the table
- The HIT to the GDP Growth - it's real and it could be big
- China's "Nuclear" Option - what are the chances that things go Boom
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Current state of trade negotians with China
- Market Reactions to renewed threats of trade war.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Earnings Watch - more come but things look good
- Capex Showing Signs of Life
- GDP - 'nuff said
- Reading between the Fed lines
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Sentiment vs. Fundamentals
- When you pray that past is not prologue
- Real Estate vs. Stocks in Recession
- Getting QE right so we can get the next five years right
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Things really are good, but they really are sensitive to conditions that could make them not good
- The term “insurance cut”
- A slowdown in small business job creation
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Earnings over next 4 Weeks
- Q1 Anecdote
- Brexit and other Beltway Bulls and Bears
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Q1 in the can
- Capex update
- The oil price conundrum
- China trade deal
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- And Germany is the Good One
- Growth story for the next decade
- The Fed's Special Counsel Investigation is called the Bond Market
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- “FOMO” – that fear of missing out
- Earnings watch
- Brexit Exit
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Obsessed with CAPEX
- Job Report Fears
- Tax Reform Bill is a Sizeable One
- Brexit Bonanza!
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Earnings Valuations Tell the Tale
- The Emerging Case for Emerging Markets
- European Stimulus or Something Else?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- My Diatribe on Inflation
- Chairman Powell Talks Inflation
- The Case For Financials
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- The Fed Minutes
- More Clarity on Tax Refunds
- Calm Before The Storm?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Earnings Watch 2019
- Capex Watch 2019
- Truth About Tax Reform
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Bottom-up and Top Down Investing
- Market sector allocation
- Politics and markets
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Who Is Leading Who?
- What would Mr. Contrarian do?
- Catching a good return by the tail
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Current state of the market
- Chinese economic growth & their credit markets
- US corporate debt and monetary normalization
- Housing Market
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Are Markets Turning Optimistic?
- What to Make of the Brexit Drama 3.Separating The Taxed from the Untaxed
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Safety isn't Always Safe
- No Fix from Fixed Income Only
- Corporate Debt One Rung Above Junk
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Fear of a Melt-Up??
- Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Risk
- Are Computers to Blame?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- What Happened in December?
- High Yield Is Highly Important
- Volatility, Meet Valuation
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- The secret sauce in the Fed's actions and words
- Cost of capital vs. return on capital
- Will the market "yield" to the curve
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Working only on the things you CAN control
- P/E Ratios and Stocks going Down
- A Diatribe of Dislocations
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- That Pesky Yield Curve
- The Good and Bad of Volatility
- Connecting the Dots on FedSpeak
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- A Two-Headed Friend (or Foe)
- Making Sense of the U.S. Energy Sector
- Bitcoin Boondoggle
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Credit Market Realities
- Brexit Bonanza
- Pipelines further de-correlate
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Jobs, jobs, jobs
- Diversification Means Always Being Upset, and Achieving Your Financial Goals
- Regulation Decline Spurring Growth?
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Trade War Turmoil
- Earnings, or Price-to-Earnings?
- Capex alert - or, How Is the Economy?
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Why Are The Markets in Turmoil?
- When does the high Debt-to-GDP ratio become a problem?
- Why are U.S. monetary conditions tightening?
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Are rising interest rates to blame for market volatility?
- Unpacking what really happened in last week's meltdown
- Housing market weakness
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- What Happened This Week?
- Shooting Straight on Bond Yields
- Key Takeaways From the Sell-Off
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, [someone], [someone else] and [another person] cover [topic].....
Topics discussed:
- Bitter Fight with Canada Barely Avoided
- Will China Play Out Like Canada?
- Bonds, Short Duration Bonds
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Capex, the key ingredient in higher productivity
- China's Currency Manipulation Mitigates Tariffs
- Tax Reform Results in Huge On-Shore Spending
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- The right asset allocation means you're not always following the market moves
- Japan's economy is a telling story
- Chinese Tariff Rumor still don't move the market
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David breaks down the week and remembers the events of a decade ago
Topics discussed:
- The Great Recession
- Trade War Leverage
- Tax Reform Isn't the Only Reason for the Economic Bump
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Market Epicurean Series On 2008 Financial Crisis
- Active vs Passive Investing
- Cause of the next Recession
- Which asset classes are up, which are down
- Repatriation of Corporate profits
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com Advice and Insights Podcast - Passive vs Active Investing Special Market Epicurean Series On The Financial Crisis Of 2008
This week, David covers the market moves
Topics discussed:
- Yield and Phillips Curve - how do they work?
- The Hardest Job In the World - Fed Chair Jerome Powell
- Is Capex Capping?
Links mentioned in this episode:
- http://thebahnsengroup.com
- http://dividendcafe
This podcast is powered by ZenCast.fm
Topics discussed:
- Central Bankers Descend on Jackson Hole
- The Fed is Getting Ready To Make Another Move
- Markets Hold Steady While the Political Drama Takes Flight
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com Advice and Insights Podcast TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week CIO David Bahnsen discusses headwinds to global economic growth, emerging markets, Turkey, dollar liquidity and more.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
CIO David Bahnsen discusses current markets from the basis for market optimism to the prospects for more capital expenditures, to the real debate behind inflation and deflation
Topics discussed:
- Causes for Cautious Optimism
- Midterm Election and Markets
- Much more
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Article on 20th Anniversary of Fracking @ MarketEpicurean.com
This week we get into the state of the economy Topics discussed:
- State of Economy
- 4.1% GDP Growth
- Successful Investor Behavior
TheBahnsenGroup.com
Topics discussed:
- Tax Reform Part Deux?
- The Inflation Chatter
- As profits go, so goes the market
- Contrarian Nugget of the Week
This week, [someone], [someone else] and [another person] cover [topic].....
Topics discussed:
- A Mid-Year Look at the Midstream Sector
- Why Trump May Not Back Down
- Not All Inflation is Created Equal
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David discusses this week in markets.....
Topics discussed:
- Trade war With China
- Bond Market
- Jobs
- and more
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David upacks this holiday week in markets.....
Topics discussed:
- Trade/ Tariffs
- Emerging Markets
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers the ongoing market reactions surrounding trade.....
Topics discussed:
- trade policy contributing to uncertainty
- dividend growth investing and separating market price fluctuations from market fundamentals
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers from trade stuff, to capex, to Japan, to so much more.....
Topics discussed:
- China's retaliation against US tariffs
- Small Business CAPEX on the rise!
- US moves up to #2 in world oil production
- much more
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers what was a busy "big news" week, yet markets barely moved (as of recording time) .....
Topics discussed:
- Singapore summit w/ North Korea
- Fed interest rate hike
- Much more
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week David highlights the push/pull between bullish economic news vs. bearish concerns around monetary policy ...
Topics discussed:
- Health of US Economy
- Fed and short term interest rates
- Options for investors
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers a week of compressed volatility in markets .....
Topics discussed:
- Political climate in Italy
- Implications for the EU, Sovereign debt and US markets
- Structural impedements to growth in Europe
- Further evidence the bull market has not ended
- The Fed and easing regulation
- Tariffs
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers a variety of things effecting markets .....
Topics discussed:
- Interest rates
- Yield curve (and how it could effect the 2020 Presidential Election)
- Oil prices
- Oil and Natural Gas Pipelines
- Dollar rally
- Trade deals and much more.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers some of his favorite topics .....
Topics discussed:
- Capex
- Alternatives
- Emerging Markets
- Oil
- Japan
- The Fed
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David tackles a variety of topics .....
Topics discussed:
- Interest rates
- Monetary policy
- Capex
- The bond market
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers .....
Topics discussed:
- Positive earnings reports
- Reasons behind the market reaction to this postive earnings season.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David covers .....
Topics discussed:
- Earnings
- Rising Long Term Interest Rates
- Political landscape and the market
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David and looks back at the week and looks forward to earnings season.....
Topics discussed:
- lessening of trade related volatility
- reasons to be bullish
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David Bahnsen covers important concepts regarding investor behavior in light of recent market volatility, and more.....
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen discusses the wild swings in markets this week.
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen covers the increased volatility in the markets, and what investors should expect going forward.
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, David L. Bahnsen covers the years in markets and reveals his views on whether or not investors should expect more surprises in 2018.
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com www.TheBahnsenGroup.com
This week, David L. Bahnsen discusses President Trump's appointment of Larry Kudlow as NEC Chairman, as well as recapping market trends and some talk on March Madness!
Links mentioned in this episode:
- www.DividendCafe.com
- www.MarketEpicurean.com
- www.AdviceandInsights.com
This week, David L. Bahnsen recaps the crazy week in markets caused by the Trump administration's tariff announcement.
Links mentioned in this episode:
- www.DividendCafe.com
- www.AdviceandInsights.com
This week, David L. Bahnsen reviews the volatility, highs, and lows of February in the markets.
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, David L. Bahnsen discusses the whole new role that bonds are playing in the market.
Topics discussed:
- It's the bond market, genius
- Is a capex boom being missed?
- Be careful about what is supposed to be obvious
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen discusses:
Topics discussed:
- The re-pricing of stocks in tug-a-war
- The tragedy of higher wages
- When things get this screwy, they also get this good?
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, David Bahnsen covers this week's market volatility and what investors should learn from it. Topics discussed:
- "Navigating" through volatility
- What could Washington D.C. do to really make this worse?
- Is this all going to spook the Fed?
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, David L. Bahnsen discusses
- Recent market volatility
- The most encouraging thing about the economy
- Hedging deflation and buying growth
Links mentioned in this episode:
www.DividendCafe.com
This week, Chief Investment Officer David Bahnsen covers
Topics discussed:
- The slippery mess of understanding oil
- A primer on equity market risk
- The potential game-changer at the Fed
Links mentioned in this episode: www.DividendCafe.com
This week, David Bahnsen recaps the week in markets and reviews the ket takeaways from our 2018 whitepaper.
Topics discussed:
- The excesses of markets and human behavior
- Sector outlooks for 2018
- Why asset allocation matters
- Links mentioned in this episode: https://www.hightoweradvisors.com/team/~/media/hightower/team/bahnsen/documents/tbg%202018%20whitepaper%20pdf_v1.ashx?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT0RrMlkyWm1aRFUxTVdOaSIsInQiOiJkbnhKcWUzbVFqaFpRXC82SW9nRitoZ2s4MzY4cHlWSmNqc2ppY3NKeHFtUlJJd284UitIbHNDU2N3eTg3NHBGcks5amdqU2FiVXZYbmdNekIySkZRakR6cVF1c2hvZmp2NjF0SSt0aTNpUXY0NTdoWXZabVRvODlXYjRXK2RqdUgifQ%3D%3D
This week, David covers all sorts of things that matter to you as an investor.....
Topics discussed:
- What Dow 25,000 really means
- How I feel about perma-bears
- Some timely coverage about value investing
- The Fed
Links mentioned in this episode:
- http://dividendcafe.com
This week, David looks at the year ahead.....
Topics discussed:
- A new podcast
- Increased volatility
- The bond market
- Commodity price inflation
Links mentioned in this episode:
- http://dividendcafe.com
Santa Delivers the Most Market-Friendly Tax Cut In Over 30 Years - Dec. 22, 2017 by The Bahnsen Group
The Fed Walked Into Alabama to Buy Some Bitcoin and Their Taxes Went Down - Dec. 15, 2017 by The Bahnsen Group
David Bahnsen - Investors told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006 by The Bahnsen Group
A Trip through the Fed, the White House, China, and Your Portfolio by The Bahnsen Group
The Best Offense Is A Good Defense And The Best Defense A Good Offense - August 25 2017 by The Bahnsen Group
The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA, MSRB and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors. All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice. This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.
Dividend Cafe - Fall is Here: Will it Mean a Fall is Near? Sept 9 2016 by The Bahnsen Group
Markets and College Football: A Time For Serious Focus – Sept. 2, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group
A Win Streak for the Ages and Company Profits Galore – July 22, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group
David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group, sounds off more with ten observations about BREXIT and the market's response to it
Forbes Article - One Man’s BREXIT is Another Man’s Prosperity – June 2, 2016 by The Bahnsen Group