Economic Take: Recent Episodes
JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking
A weekly podcast dissecting the latest trends in the economy that businesses should know about, from trade dynamics to labor market fluctuations. All from JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking’s Head Economist, Jim Glassman.
In the final episode of this podcast, Jim takes a look back at 50 years of economic transformation—and offers optimism about what the future holds for the economy and markets.
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Jim sits down with Kerry Jessani, Head of Healthcare, Higher Education and Nonprofit Banking for Commercial Banking, to explore the ways the current economic outlook affects colleges and universities, and even how technology has transformed the student experience.
A sluggish recovery from economic crises worsens outcomes for the government, disrupts people’s lives and erodes wealth. After a century of dealing with economic cycles, American leaders implicitly now understand the costs and benefits of policy activism.
Though it’s generating buzz, the May CPI report reflects the same patterns we’ve seen for months: that our inflation issues are supply-side problems and not a result of too much demand.
In the big picture, there are no signs the economy is overheated. But the evidence plain to see in certain sectors, likely a result of consumer shifts away from services and toward goods during the pandemic. Added together, the odds of a Fed-triggered recession are pretty slim.
Among a shifting market landscape, the interplay between monetary and financial conditions can be likened to that of conductors and musicians—one sets the tone while the other responds.
Stock market valuations have been high by historic norms, but is the standard way of valuing the stock market still applicable?
Today’s Federal Reserve has a few tools at its disposal it didn’t have during the inflationary era of the 1970s: a game plan, time and flexibility.
Despite the talk of inflation, bond investors still seem to agree with the Fed’s initial instinct that many of the current price pressures will prove to be transitory. Also: Why globalism is still kicking.
The Fed worked hard to prop up the economy during the pandemic. There’s no reason to assume its leaders are now willing to risk pushing the economy into a recession when long-term inflation expectations are still below 2%.
Many of us remember the price shocks of the 1970s, but there are not many parallels with that era in terms of the forces that currently drive inflation.
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There’s a widespread notion that the current spike in prices signals an overheated economy. But under close inspection, those details don’t add up.
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The Fed’s activity now is a hallmark of its modern approach: Set investors’ expectations for steady, predictable long-term inflation — and avoid the temptation to hit the brakes.
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Employment has grown by 887,000 monthly on average since April 2020 as the economy got back on its feet. Now that we’re back to pre-pandemic employment conditions, the pace of hiring will grind down very quickly.
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Will the Fed’s game plan pull the rug from under the recovery? The roller-coaster ride over the past two years seems less influenced by the Fed and more by non-monetary factors.
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The Fed said last week it expects growth to settle down to a trend-like pace and that unemployment will stabilize. What explains all the concern out there where the Fed sees no issue?
Will the recent spike in gas prices and other commodities set back the post-pandemic economic recovery? There’s good reason to think we’ll be able to ride this one out.
The economic numbers we talk about are seasonally adjusted, smoothing out the natural ups and downs of a calendar year so we get a clearer picture. But since the pandemic, it’s getting tricker to tell what’s a standard seasonal swing or a COVID curveball.
The current geopolitical crisis will slow growth by a couple percentage points. But the drag caused by rising energy prices will be heaviest for regions of the globe that depend on imported fuel.
Concerns that rising labor costs could be inflationary are misplaced because wages move in concert with other factors—many of them decades in the making.
The Federal Reserve has clearly communicated its goals for months. So why hasn’t it changed course in the face of the latest inflation readings?
A peculiar thing happened in January’s jobs report. The labor force grew by 1.4 million, but after an annual population adjustment, the labor force actually contracted. Why does BLS change the measurements, and how does that affect the way we look at trends?
The upcoming rise in interest rates has the markets unsettled. But the Federal Reserve’s plans are colored by a bullish view of the economy’s growth, not a hawkish outlook wary of an economic downturn.
With the Fed already starting to pull back from pandemic supports, interest rates are expected to climb in 2022. While that may dampen mortgages, enough other changes over the past few years should leave housing in a healthy place.
When it comes to inflation, it takes two to tango—aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Comparing prices to the pre-pandemic world of 2019 tells a remarkably different story than a one-year lookback.
In our 2022 Business Leaders Outlook survey, we found that business leaders across the U.S. have a rosy view of the year ahead. While pandemic-driven challenges linger, they’re not really getting in the way of growth and profits.
It may not feel like it with the market trending down in the last month, but in 2021 we witnessed a remarkably fast economic recovery. And there’s good reason to be upbeat for 2022.
The economy is expected to grow steadily in 2022, but there are a few reasons that shouldn’t worsen current pricing pressures.
The Fed’s ultimate goal of stable inflation requires aggregate demand to align with aggregate supply. That hinges on the supply of labor, and unemployment is the best measure of that alignment.
Even though we know the culprit behind inflation, we’re still susceptible to superstition. We tend to link inflation headlines with monetary and fiscal policy actions. Jim debunks a few popular misconceptions about recent Fed activity.
The air travel industry never shut down during the pandemic, but it certainly felt the effects. Airline trends offer us fast insight into business travel and tourism patterns. As COVID-19 cases dip and passenger counts rise, it looks like smoother skies are ahead.
Though the Federal Reserve keeps an eye on asset prices, it won’t set targets. That’s because mandates on inflation and employment mean the Fed’s plate is plenty full. Plus, a look at historical norms and why they may not apply to modern asset valuations.
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Jim is joined by J.P. Morgan healthcare expert Lauren Ruane to discuss trends in the healthcare sector and what’s changed in the pandemic. Key themes include how technology and innovation are shaping the sector’s future. Lauren also covers patients as savvy consumers, remote care and behavioral health taking center stage, and why the sector’s labor shortage is likely to intensify.
Though they’re both climbing, price increases on materials are outpacing hikes on retail shelves. That’s partially because labor costs matter more when it comes to consumer prices.
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The Fed is focusing on the average rate of inflation over time, rather than responding to current volatility and price pressures. Why is this change a big deal? It can help lessen policy uncertainty, and it sets a more reasonable standard to judge the central bank’s intentions. The change may also bring an end to the decline in the nominal interest rate levels that has weakened central banks’ policy tools.
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Consumer sentiment is in a rut since this summer—and that can help us forecast future trends in the U.S. With some added historical perspective, consumers right now have it pretty good.
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What we’re anticipating from the Fed for the next few years isn’t monetary tightening, but a gradual easing of monetary accommodation. And a few good reasons to downplay a slim September jobs report.
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October’s jobs report and profit reports will tell us plenty about the momentum in the market. And a rise in mortgage rates from their pandemic lows could be a boost for landlords.
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As the economy rebounds, the Fed’s not budging — a clear sign of the Fed’s rethinking since a decade ago. Also, a look at why air travel numbers are a signal for the broader economy.
This year’s surge in housing prices doesn’t have much in common with the crisis from a decade ago. Behind it is a positive change in household buying power driven by lower mortgage rates and higher incomes.
Small businesses saw both the challenges and opportunities of economic upheaval the last year. Chase for Business joined the Economic Take podcast to unpack how the economy and labor shortages are impacting small businesses—and how entrepreneurs are adapting.
GDP is back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy is still short millions of jobs and businesses are struggling to fill job openings. The gap between national output and employment could lead to a few different scenarios, and each one looks different for growth and Fed policy in the years ahead.
The value of the U.S. stock market now is twice the size of the U.S. economy. What macroeconomic factors led to the market’s record highs, and what’s on the horizon?
Businesses finally took a long-needed leap toward automation. (It was a global pandemic that provided the shove.)
By focusing on the core and not the more volatile sectors like food and energy, the Fed gets a steadier look at the big economic picture. Still, economists are gravitating toward other gauges of inflation.
Even with the economy rebounding, nonfarm employment is still several million below of its pre-pandemic mark. Schools and restaurants account for a big share, but signs point in the right direction.
The second-quarter GDP report reveals the culprit behind inventory shortages: A rare divergence between final demand and production. Jim explains how the situation will probably ease.
Inflation readings and price pressures all point toward pandemic bottlenecks. That’s why the Fed’s “transitory” explanation is the right idea.
A JPMorgan Chase survey of mid-sized businesses suggests leaders are confident as companies bounce back from the pandemic. They also give insight into how they navigated the last year, and, perhaps more importantly, how they plan to take on the next challenges and opportunities.
We’re moving around again, and that’s giving a lift to industries slowed by the pandemic. Jim explains how the energy and aviation sectors offer a glimpse at what’s ahead.
The nation’s GDP has just about recovered to pre-pandemic levels. So why isn’t the job market catching up? Jim explains why the economy’s going to have to grow much faster to hit Fed targets.
May home sales fell for the fourth straight month as tight inventories and rising prices put a drag on the market. Time to worry? Jim offers four reasons why he thinks housing will be favorable in the coming months.
So it’s happened. On June 16, the Federal Reserve announced an earlier time line for when it might raise interest rates. With the markets still shifting in response, Jim takes a deeper look at what Fed policymakers said—and why watching the economy’s reopening in the coming weeks could tell us much more.
There’s plenty of continuing concern about inflation, but Jim notes that the Fed’s message about higher prices being “transitory” remains on point. He points out that supply chain bottlenecks forced by sudden, fast-returning demand in key industries are the more likely culprit in today’s rising prices, and could be temporary.
Last week, the Fed reported its members discussed whether it’s time to start talking about adjusting asset purchases the central bank has used to steer the pandemic economy—triggering brief market volatility. Jim thinks the Fed won’t keep policy easy forever, but likely won’t rush to unwind either. Here’s why.
Labor productivity is one of the toughest economic concepts to measure, yet a central storyline in every economic rebound. Jim looks at how demographic trends, technological advancements and policy changes could shape human productivity, hiring and economic growth during the pandemic recovery—and beyond.
Inflation news continues to drive headlines—rising prices for cars, lumber, gasoline and basic materials will do that. But central banks—including the Fed—have called these pricing pressures “transitory.” Jim explains why there’s much more to the current inflation picture than what’s on the sales receipt.
With more than 10 million jobs needing to be filled to meet the Fed’s full employment targets, why are people still talking about worker shortages? Jim examines this stubborn hiring problem—how it likely started, why it could persist despite current pandemic policies and what actions could potentially address it.
Last week’s perceived shortfall in April employment definitely had people talking. Jim sees more in the latest fundamentals that are likely moving the U.S. closer to the Federal Reserve’s “maximum employment” targets than most might think.
This Friday’s April jobs report could be the economic headline of the week. But Jim reminds us there’s always more happening behind the data. How emerging demographic and migration patterns are likely shaping the U.S. economy’s post-pandemic narrative.
The Fed meets this week amid continued signs of economic recovery—and a rising chorus of inflation concerns. Jim takes a closer look at historic policy actions during recent financial emergencies and explains why current pricing worries could be short-lived.
A pickup in capital investment can explain a lot about the future expansion business leaders are planning. First-quarter business loan growth looked drowsy at best, but Jim thinks that’s not the full story. He looks at four economic developments that restricted credit needs in 2020 that are likely lifting now—meaning new business lending momentum may already be underway.
After a disruptive pandemic year, the nation’s economic discussion seems headed back to more familiar territory on expansion, markets and income equality. However, Jim examines key developments over the past year that could actually produce a brighter picture on these issues than seen even before last year’s lockdowns.
The nation added 916,000 jobs in March amid continuing improvement in COVID-19 vaccinations and in key spending sectors like autos and travel. But Jim says this recovery road trip is likely far from over—and employment may have to pass some big mile markers to get home by year-end.
Whenever we return to the office, what will it look like—and where might it be? Jim examines recent economic, demographic and workplace cultural trends that could shape commercial real estate as employees consider where they want to work, live and retire post-pandemic.
With last week’s positive Federal Reserve forecast, longtime Fed watchers might have sensed something missing—decades-old jitters about rising prices, perhaps? With the recovering U.S. economy likely headed for its strongest growth in almost 40 years, Jim takes a closer look at the central bank’s new world and why it’s sticking to current rate policy even if inflation begins to stir.
With the economy increasingly on the mend, could the Federal Reserve be closer to adjusting policy? Jim zeroes in on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting for a closer look amid recent moves in the bond market and positive signals on jobs and economic growth.
Some people say stocks and bonds are from two different planets—why else have bond yields been so low this past year despite a bullish stock market? Jim explores a few potential answers, including the effects of central bank asset purchases and the relationship between interest rates and earnings expectations.
Day by day, wider COVID-19 vaccination has business owners visualizing a recovery with real staying power. But the amount of time it takes for the hardest-hit sectors to rebound—including hospitality, air travel and services—will vary. Jim checks the data and offers a picture of how the recovery may progress this year and next.
Consumer spending is now back to pre-pandemic levels, but it’s likely to take a lot more than home delivery to satisfy consumer appetites in the coming months. Jim takes a look at fresh economic signals that could make 2021 the year of the consumer.
While some manufacturers benefited from the COVID-19 e-commerce boom in 2020, makers of aerospace and oil and gas products are still navigating significant challenges. Jim examines developments that could put these critical U.S. manufacturing sectors back to full capacity soon.
With a third massive health and economic pandemic relief package moving through Congress, Jim examines concerns about overstimulating the economy and why a temperate outcome is more likely.
As the Biden administration accelerates its COVID-19 vaccination rollout and Congress negotiates a new round of economic stimulus, Jim sees a game plan that could return the U.S. to full employment by year-end.
In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim brings back JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and Chairman of the Southeast U.S. and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three discuss potential moves by the Biden administration for new economic stimulus, infrastructure spending, immigration policy and global trade, particularly with China.
In this special pre-inauguration edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Heather Higginbottom, President of JPMorgan Chase PolicyCenter. With widespread economic, health and social challenges facing the new Biden Administration, what policies could emerge to improve economic equity and financial resiliency for workers, families and small businesses?
Why are markets still flying so high despite surging pandemic cases and political unrest in Washington? Jim looks at a couple of possible causes, including recent developments in nationwide COVID-19 vaccination efforts and the possibility of more federal fiscal stimulus.
In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim unpacks major results from the 2021 Business Leaders Outlook with John Simmons, Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries at JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. In a business world changed virtually overnight by COVID-19, Jim and John discuss a big year-end swing in executive optimism and business performance, as well as factors that may shape 2021.
2020 closes on a hopeful note with the start of U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations—and not a moment too soon. With pandemic cases now surging, shutdowns could still happen. However, Jim looks at recent data in some of the hardest-hit industries and finds that our lockdown habits and continued consumer spending strength could still add economic warmth in the weeks ahead.
Despite rising COVID-19 cases and November’s employment gains falling slightly below expectations, Jim looks at continuing signs of economic momentum that could accelerate with FDA vaccine approvals as early as this week.
Even after the world receives an effective vaccine, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to impact the global economy for some time. Yet just last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another record high. Jim looks at how this year’s impressive business performance numbers and rising market valuations are already driving confidence for 2021.
It’s the holiday gift that everyone’s been waiting for—several potential COVID-19 vaccines that are nearly ready for distribution. Jim explains how an aggressive effort to vaccinate the public could build on the momentum created by business and consumer activity to help fuel the economic recovery.
Successful COVID-19 vaccine trials and improving job numbers are potential bright spots for the economic recovery—but what about the office market outlook? Jim explains how shifts in workforce demographics and population flows may impact not just when, but where employees return to work.
Jim looks beyond October’s solid job numbers to legislative and medical milestones that could return the U.S. to pre-COVID-19 unemployment levels by late 2021.
Jim looks past Election Day to Friday’s release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report. Significant recent drops in insured unemployment coupled with strong signs of pent-up consumer demand could beat the White House for the biggest economic story of the week.
In this special 2020 election edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and the firm’s chairman of the Southeast U.S and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three take a look at potential election outcomes in the White House and Congress and how spending, global trade, tax and fiscal policy could evolve under the next administration.
In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, on how the shutoff of federal pandemic unemployment assistance is affecting out-of-work consumers. It may be a worrisome spot in an otherwise brightening jobs picture.
The federal deficit was $3.1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year. This record amount has some economists revisiting the popular theory that deficits may cause inflation. But is there any evidence that COVID-19 fiscal support could overstimulate the economy?
U.S. GDP has regained nearly 86% of the ground it lost to COVID-19 disruptions at the beginning of the year. For the job market to match this pace of recovery, 7.5 million more people would need to be employed by now. What factors are contributing to the gap between national output and employment numbers? Hint: It’s not all due to the pandemic.
While the broader U.S. economy has nearly reached its cruising altitude since the start of the pandemic, the air travel industry is still struggling to take off. The mains reasons why may be more psychological than economic—can innovative measures and faster COVID-19 testing help reassure the public that it’s safe to fly again?
Our jobs picture keeps getting better, but last week, the Fed reported it’s keeping rates near zero through 2023. Is this part of the Fed’s new approach to managing inflation or something more nuanced?
The number of Americans currently unemployed is now half of what it was back in April, but still far above the 3.5% rate in February. Yet, wage growth is pretty strong and recent surveys show businesses have nearly 7 million unfilled jobs. How has the pandemic affected the U.S. worker shortage and how may immigration reform play a role in solving it?
Don’t look to a typical business cycle to explain the economic recovery from COVID-19. Instead, this week, we look at three trends involving the stock market, the job market and consumer activity and what they mean for national output.
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it would tolerate inflation “moderately” above its 2% target—why did the central bank do this now and what does it mean for financial markets? Also this week: signs of a consumer-driven Q3 GDP surge and a snapshot of the state of the job market.
After remaining dormant for more than a decade, the U.S. housing sector has roared back to life in the middle a pandemic and an economic crisis. This week we take a look at what may be contributing to this residential real estate tailwind, including: favorable aggregate income trends, low mortgage rates and demographic shifts.
Colleges and universities contribute up to 4% of U.S. GDP when you add up tuition costs, room and board, NCAA revenues and research dollars—virtual classrooms and cancelled sporting events will likely have a big impact on the higher education sector this fall. Also this week: a look at the strained finances of states and local communities due to COVID-19 disruptions.
What does the state of the job market in July tell us about the broader U.S. economy? Also this week: Why the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is starting to shrink and how the Fed is changing the way it manages inflation.
Last week’s historic GDP report—showing a 32.9% annualized drop—drove a lot of news headlines, which at the surface-level, didn’t tell us much about where the economy is headed. Let’s dig a little deeper into the report and unearth four additional nuggets of data that may provide some answers about the months ahead.
In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, about a new report on the impact unemployment insurance has had on consumer spending and the U.S. economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Efforts to contain the latest flare-up of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. will probably not result in the same economic upheaval of March and April. Meanwhile, retail sales, the CPI, manufacturing output and housing starts in June all provide a favorable impression of the state of the recovery.
In the last couple of weeks, several populous states, including Florida, Texas and California, have experienced flare-ups in COVID-19 cases. Despite this, the stock market continues to rise and is once again near February’s historic highs. Is the market losing touch with economic reality or are investors seeing real silver linings?
Encouraging economic data, with all the makings of a V-shaped recovery, doesn’t feel as good as it looks on paper. As quickly as things are improving, there’s still a long way to go, and case numbers are rising in many communities. But innovative thinking—like a renewed interest in “pooled testing” to expand testing capabilities and reopen schools in the fall—offers hope.
The government’s $4 trillion relief measures for COVID-19 won’t have much of an effect on GDP until consumers are able to travel and spend freely again. While there has been some encouraging economic news over the past couple of weeks, the additional $600 in weekly jobless benefits is set to expires on July 31. Since income is the key to the economy’s recovery, Washington may need to provide a few more lifelines before a vaccine arrives.
Reports last week showed a burst of retail sales activity in May that recouped almost two-thirds of the ground lost in March and April. This week, the Commerce Department delivers its consumer spending report, which should help paint a clearer picture of the recovery. Finally, publicly held debt surged to 103 percent of GDP in May—should we be worried?
The social distancing protocols that were implemented to disrupt the spread of COVID-19 were also a shock to aggregate supply. While aggregate demand is likely robust as some businesses reopen, the cost of services at those businesses may increase due to capacity limits. So although the economy may make good progress over the summer and fall, the road to a full recovery will still be rocky for many businesses and consumers.
The May jobs report was a big deal, not because it was particularly surprising, but because it provided a positive boost to the recovery narrative. As workers continue to move back onto their employer’s books and consumer spending likely increases over the summer, there are two other trends to watch that may help determine the strength of the recovery.
Unemployment rates in the upcoming May jobs report are expected to near 20 percent—the highest since the Great Depression. Before making any other dire comparisons to the US economy in the 1920s-30s, consider how unemployment numbers are calculated and how COVID-19 lockdowns have contributed to the current economic situation.
Though industries, such as retail and healthcare, may experience lasting changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the decades-long trend of globalization will likely continue.
Economists estimate that COVID-19 shutdowns have cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars per day. In response, the federal government has allocated trillions of dollars to protect jobs and businesses. Though there is little data on the effect of these efforts, an early sign of improvement may be that the number of people receiving unemployment benefits last week held steady.
Consumer demand collapsed around the middle of March due to COVID-19 shutdowns. By late March, however, the savings rate jumped to 13.1 percent—nearly $1 trillion annualized. Will this build-up in savings unlock pent-up spending and help accelerate the economic recovery?
The US Department of Labor is scheduled to release its highly anticipated April jobs report this Friday, but the results may not be all that surprising or helpful. We already know that 25 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the past month—the key to what lies ahead is the number of people who continue to receive unemployment insurance benefits versus how many return to their employers’ payroll.
The Small Business Administration received another $310 billion in funding last week for its Paycheck Protection Program. In order to have these loans forgiven, businesses must use the funds on payroll, so we should see employees returning to their jobs in the coming weeks.
The impact of the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program should soon be visible in the number of people leaving unemployment insurance (UI) to go back on the books of their employers. Also this week: What the new normal may look like as parts of the economy begin to reopen.
Many people are wondering what the US economy will look like after the COVID-19 pandemic is contained. The answer to this question depends largely on how long businesses remain shuttered and how many people retain their jobs or seek unemployment benefits through the CARES Act.
Many of the 10 million Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in March worked for businesses that will soon receive assistance from the Small Business Administration’s (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program. Whether more people now stay employed thanks to SBA loans or end up claiming unemployment insurance benefits may affect how quickly the US economy recovers after the pandemic.
With its passage of the CARES Act, Congress has thrown a lifeline to businesses and individuals who were disrupted and displaced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Still, some worry about the economic impacts of this historic stimulus package—how much should we be concerned by debt, inflation and other possible repercussions?
The Senate’s historic $2 trillion stimulus package includes key provisions aimed at keeping small businesses and individuals afloat. These measures, including an expanded unemployment insurance system, can offer considerable help at a time when business disruptions don’t appear to be slowing down.
The economic landscape is changing rapidly as more businesses and public spaces are locked-down to combat the spread of COVID-19. As governments and central banks step in to help provide relief, individuals are also getting creative with how they deal with disruption.
The federal government and the Federal Reserve are now working on multiple fronts to contain the spread of COVID-19 and soften its impact on the economy. The shock to US domestic demand from closures, cancellations and other preventative actions will likely be one of the main economic challenges. That said, there are three undercurrents helping to cushion the economy from this blow. Also this week: How the OPEC price war may provide a much-needed source of economic stimulus.
While it’s hard to look beyond the public health and economic impacts of COVID-19, it’s important to remember that the economy is more resilient than some may think. Consumers will probably benefit from falling oil prices and interest rates, and businesses are better prepared than ever to mitigate supply and demand disruptions.
While it’s too early to make predictions about the lasting economic effects of the coronavirus, it’s not surprising that it has impacted our interconnected global system. We’ll have to wait and see if this downswing in economic activity will be followed by an expected rebound.
The labor force participation rate has dropped 3 percent in the past decade, leading some economists to reason there are many people who have yet to return to the job market. But with low unemployment and the full recovery of participation for people in their prime working years (25-54 years old), the overall decrease is likely due to the outsized retirement of baby boomers. Pay more attention to the steady trends in jobless claims to help chart the future course of the economy.