The Ainslie News Podcast: Recent Episodes
Ainslie
Daily gold and silver economic news conveniently delivered in audio format.
Ainslie Bullion is one of Australia's leading gold & silver bullion dealers, since 1974. With our live pricing, historical price charts, and huge range of gold, silver and platinum. Ainslie produce and sell our own range of gold and silver bullion offering world class products at 'local' prices.
Will Bitcoin long term holders surrender and sell their coins? With many signals suggesting a widespread capitulation has taken place, attention turns to whether a Bitcoin bottom is forming.
CHARTS:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/will-long-term-btc-holders-surrender-/tabid/88/a/2801/default.aspx
Recent low gold prices have many scratching their heads amid rampant inflation and a war.
However there are some key fundamental indicators that suggest this bottoming may be short lived and has Goldman Sachs calling for $2500 USD gold soon.
ARTICLE & IMAGES MENTIONED:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/goldman-sachs-call-us-242500-gold-soon/tabid/88/a/2800/default.aspx
Billions of dollars worth of gold has been found perfectly preserved on the ocean floor. The legendary San Jose galleon shipwreck was first discovered in 2015, but new technology has uncovered up to 200 tonnes of gold, silver and emeralds.
ARTICLE & LINKS:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/billions-worth-of-gold-found-in-shipwreck/tabid/88/a/2799/default.aspx
https://opensea.io/collection/goldsilverpirates
www.goldsilverstandard.com
Commodity prices are collapsing this week and the Australian dollar plunged to a 2yr low. With more interest rate hikes likely, it's ramping up mortgage repayments and the cost of living. Are gold and silver the long term safe haven? - ainsliebullion.com.au
CHARTS AND IMAGES SHOWN:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/mortgages-and-commodities-under-pressure-ahead-of-recession/tabid/88/a/2798/default.aspx
In Australia, commentators are calling for the 2020s to be the new 1850s in "Gold Rush 2.0". And it’s lucky we have plenty of gold in the ground... as our reserves are only a 22hr flight away at the Bank of England!
CHARTS AND IMAGES SHOWN:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-rush-2-0-and-australia-e2-80-99s-reserves-/tabid/88/a/2797/default.aspx
LINKS MENTIONED:
https://www.rba.gov.au/qa/gold-holding.html
Only HODLers remain as the Bitcoin price has locked in one of the worst monthly performances in history, with renewed interest in safe storage options.
CHARTS & DIAGRAMS MENTIONED:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/only-hodlers-remain-e2-80-a6/tabid/88/a/2796/default.aspx
Dramatic images of almost a hundred thousand protestors have broken out in Belgium as inflation has now crossed 10% in June. These civil uprisings have been mirrored worldwide this month as supply chains reach breaking point and the purchasing power of government issued fiat currencies continue to weaken.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/major-protests-in-belgium-against-the-rising-cost-of-living/tabid/88/a/2795/default.aspx
We look at the FY22 year for Australia and some of the shocking data out of the broader global economy for the second half. We briefly discuss going forward too..
Read article here
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/fy22-in-review/tabid/88/a/2794/default.aspx
With China, India, Brazil and South Africa wondering if they will be next in line to suffer sanctions, the BRICS nations are forming a viable alternative to the US Dollar for international settlements. Speaking at the BRICS Business Forum on Wednesday, Putin stated
“The matter of creating the international reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of our countries is under review.” This is the most formalised movement towards a global environment that functions largely without the US Dollar. Saudi Arabia has been in talks for most of the year to sell Oil denominated in Chinese Yuan, and Nigeria is already making those trades.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/brics-nations-forming-usd-alternative/tabid/88/a/2793/default.aspx
Another shocker on Wall Street last night with heavy falls across the board. The only thing positive was the USD and some commodities, and gold was pretty much flat but up in AUD terms. So what happened this time?
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/earnings-flag-more-pain-to-come/tabid/88/a/2792/default.aspx
Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin are at all-time lows, signalling potential floor formation. Many are even trading at levels with single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels. So, it begs the question, is this the bottom?
In a Capitol Hill hearing Powell was asked yesterday: “Would you say that the war in Ukrain is the primary driver of inflation in America?” Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded: “No. Inflation was high before, certainly before the ware in Ukraine broke out.” The President speaking at the White House later revealed that Congress knew that sanctions would lead to higher gas prices.” Fuel costs bleed into every aspect of consumption leading to greater inflation and reduced purchasing power of currencies. The only question is when precious metals will pop in this highly inflationary environment.
With 7 days left for the first half of this year, the S&P500 is posting its second worst H1 in history behind a little crash you may have heard of called the Great Depression. US Treasuries go back to 1788 to see a worse H1. We look at where the traditional ‘60/40 portfolio’ sits and compare to gold…
Yesterday we heard the RBA chief assure us "I don't see a recession on the horizon”. As we have seen repeatedly since the GFC, central banks have deployed ‘words’ as much as rates and QE in an effort to control markets. Commonly called ‘jawboning’, is that what Mr Lowe is trying on us, is it true, and if not what does a recession mean?
There are some analysts that think the only thing you need to look at to know where the price of gold and silver are going is the weekly Commitment of Traders report that presents all the positions of the big players on COMEX futures. It just got “wildly bullish”…
The Bitcoin market has reeled from a massive deleveraging event this week, falling below the 2017 US$20k ATH. Both on-chain DeFi markets and off-chain entities deleveraged. Exchanges, lenders, and hedge funds were rendered insolvent, illiquid, or liquidated.
Another night of deep red on Wall Street last night and another night of gold and silver price strength in the face of it. Markets were rocked by the surprise rate hike of 50bps by the Swiss National Bank but more particularly the expected sell off of their mountain of US shares, particularly the ultra vulnerable FAANGs they’ve gone heavy on. The NASDAQ ended the session down 4.1%. But it wasn’t the Swiss alone. More broadly we are seeing a set up mirroring the huge gold rallies of the 70’s and 2000’s.
The US Fed has a new yarn to spin you. After months and months of trying to convince the market that inflation was just ‘transitory’ despite all the data, Fed Chair Powell was last night, with a straight face, telling us: “There is no sign of a broader slowdown in the economy that I can see.” Meeting market expectations they hiked rates by a still huge 75bps, the biggest hike since 1994. We discuss why shares rallied and what’s ahead…
Its Monday morning so lets keep the words to a minimum and check out some compelling charts for gold and silver and where they sit right now.
The reason our mantra is “Balance your wealth in an unbalanced world” is because in such unprecedented times it should be expected that experts can have such divergent theses on ‘what’s next’. On Monday we spoke to the thesis of Raoul Pal and others of recession, disinflation, Fed easing and risk-on. Today we talk to Crescat’s thesis of recession, sustained inflation, sustained rate hikes, and commodities boom.
There are conflicting views amongst experts around where this unprecedented economic setup ends. Much of the market is sitting on its hands unsure as to what to. Ray Dalio last week reminded us that ‘cash is trash’ so where does one invest now?
It's now official. After the NASDAQ long since crossed the rubicon, the world’s biggest equities index, the US S&P500 officially turned to bear market having cross the 20% loss line on Friday night. Having reached this juncture after just 2 of the 10 rate hikes predicted and BEFORE any quantitative tightening even starts… the question on everyone’s lips is how strong will the Fed hold its ‘we will not capitulate to save the financial markets’ stance?
More red on Wall Street last night on growing concerns about the US economy and its ability to handle higher rates. Whilst ending the session lower the S&P500 again miraculously bounced off the -20% bear market line in the sand without crossing it. However the night was more notable for the surge in both gold and bitcoin against that trend, and likewise bonds bid meaning lower yields in the face of rising rates. We discuss the set up for gold in particular right now.
Sri Lanka is now running out of petrol. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe warns that the nation has no US dollar reserves and they are now planning to sell their national airline. Shortages are far from confined to Sri Lanka with Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, warning MPs on Monday that the Central Bank has warned of ‘apocalyptic’ food price hikes and that the central bank was helpless in fighting food shortages driven by external shocks such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and supply chain issues caused by the zero covid policy in China.
The Bitcoin market experienced a week for the history books, with the $40B LUNA/UST project hyper-inflating and collapsing, 80k BTC sold by LFG, and the Tether $1 peg coming under pressure. Let’s review the last week…
Its hard to pick up a paper or read the news without headlines around plummeting auction clearance rates, stalled house sales, predictions of big house price falls, and then late last week we got the ABS stats showing new home and construction finance commitments literally halved from the ‘HomeBuilder’ stimulus February 2021 peak and likewise dwelling approvals down 36% year on year. Futures markets have rates rising over 120% on their current levels and we discuss where that sits historically and practically.
Never a dull night on global markets lately… Last night was again a sea of red. The only green was yet again the US dollar (at near 20 year highs) and big cap crypto (coming off massive falls). The S&P500 rallied a little late to avoid falling into an official bear market (20% off recent highs) by just 2bps and the NASDAQ long left the bear market station down 32% and now its biggest fall since the GFC.
Less words more charts today as we hit some very interesting junctures in precious metals markets.
Last night continued the biggest sharemarket whipsaw since peak COVD turmoil in mid 2020. After the biggest Fed day surge in 44 years on Wednesday night, last night saw the biggest drop since June 2020 with the NASDAQ down 6% at its worst and 5% at close. The S&P500 was down over 3.5% as well and to complete the reversal of ‘all things’ bonds tanked (yields shot up), the other safe haven of gold also fell back below US$1900, and the USD surged to wipe out yesterday’s gains but saw a much weaker AUD and gold hold steady in AUD terms. So what on earth is going on?
Philip Lowe, Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced yesterday that the cash rate target is now 0.35%, with real rates still very negative. This was the first rate rise since November 2010. The time has come to start withdrawing some of the ‘extraordinary monetary support’ that has been injected into the economy since early 2020. They are now forecasting inflation to peak at 6% in 2022 after annualised inflation in the last month came to 5.1%.
Bitcoin investors are hanging onto the edge of profitability, with short-term price action threatening to put them back into the red. Meanwhile, a constructive confluence of macro indicators is developing into a clearer picture of a potential bear market floor.
Last night’s shock news of the US falling into recessionary territory with a negative GDP print was a salient reminder of both the precariousness of the world’s biggest economy and the farce that is a sharemarket RALLYING on the news likely because they think it will force a reversal of the Fed’s tightening! Importantly gold rallied (despite an also stronger USD) as it called BS on the shares’ “bad news is good news” hope rally. As we reported yesterday Crescat Capital released their latest monthly research letter late last week and today we look further into it.
Crescat Capital released their latest monthly research letter late last week and as usual it provides clear and concise insight into macro markets at present backed up with ‘runs on the board’ through the outperformance of their funds.
Speaking on Bloomberg Asia, Founding Partner at Swiss Asia Capital Singapore dropped a number of bombshells in the live interview. In a case of the ‘tail wagging the dog’, outsized silver futures and options leverage outnumber the physical metal more than 100:1. Base metal inventories are quickly running out despite increasing global demand. Finally, of all the metals markets, gold at present spot prices is the bargain of the century, as $5-figure gold will be needed to stabilise global markets in a new currency realignment.
The Yen may be one of the first dominoes to fall as the Japanese fiat currency has nose-dived in terms of gold purchasing power, even since the August 2020 highs. Sri Lanka has defaulted on US$35.5bn of foreign debt as sharp commodity price rises lead to massive social unrest. In Europe, the Netherlands Chief CPI statistician blames high energy prices on ‘Putin’.
Over the last couple of days both the IMF and World Bank have heavily downgraded global economic growth forecasts whilst both acknowledging and, ironically proposing to fuel more inflation with more stimulation. Hello stagflation…
The Bitcoin market traded lower this week, coming off an opening high of $47,102, and slipping to a low of $42,183. This market weakness follows a relatively modest price break-out from the multi-month consolidation range that has been established since mid-January.
The AUS and AGS tokens have come a long way since their inception as an ERC-20 token. The natural evolution of the project was to create a series of gold and silver-backed NFTs. Much like how large bullion minters will produce limited runs of special coins, Gold and Silver Standard NFTs give the underlying precious metals artistic value even rarer than the metal itself – with enhanced visuals and a professional tone.
No doubt over the last few months we have all heard the acronym NFT. It became the buzzword of the crypto-space, with some believing it was just the flavour of the season in a hype-driven market. But, there's more to it… let's explore.
The Bitcoin market pulled back this week after a break-out from the multi-month consolidation range. Prices have thus far struggled to find sustained upside momentum, and there are indications of a modest volume of profit taken by market participants. Let’s dive into the BTC market’s onchain dynamics…
Late last week the FOMC minutes from the previous meeting were made public. In them we found that Fed chairs are targeting a maximum of $95bn in balance sheet reduction per month starting in May. The figure is made up of $60bn in treasuries and $35bn in mortgage-backed securities. The minutes also made it clear that inflation is recognised as a major problem, and rate hikes are likely to be 50 basis points at each meeting as opposed to the standard 25.
The World Gold Council just released their figures for both the month of March and also Q1 of 2022. Unsurprisingly given the global geopolitical events and inflation issues before us gold demand was the highest seen in years.
In 1973 Nixon and Kissenger saved the Dollar by instating the Petrodollar with the Saudis. In return for military support from the US, the Saudi royal family agreed to only sell oil in Dollars. In 1973 the Saudis were the largest energy producer and the US the biggest consumer. It made sense for the two to set the tone. However, in 2022, the picture is very different. Russian gas and oil holds sway and the Chinese are purchasing.
Yesterday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting marked a clear turning point for the Aussie central bank. The same bank that not long ago promised we wouldn’t see rising rates for ‘years’ has been doggedly playing its “patience” card of maintaining an all time low cash rate of 0.1% amid the inflationary onslaught and bubble like housing market. Yesterday “patience” was very clearly removed from the narrative. We discuss
As the 19 millionth bitcoin is mined, several large public buyers have sparked renewed interest in Bitcoin as pristine collateral. Shrimps and Whales are leading widespread coin accumulation, alongside the Luna Foundation Guard who added over 21k BTC to their balance in nine days. Let’s review how far BTC has come in its short history.
On Friday we shared the very solid year to date performance of gold this year (and every year since 2000) in a variety of currencies. What is particularly important to note is that the performance of gold this year has been achieved ostensibly with relatively limited ETF involvement as equities traders may have just pivoted from growth to value shares and not yet gold with gusto. We share more of the In Gold We Trust preview charts to illustrate.
On Monday and Wednesday we stepped through the setup for stagflation in the US, the now ‘baked in’ recession to happen soon and how various assets perform in that environment. We shared preview charts from the highly anticipated In Gold We Trust annual. To address any view things may have changed, overnight we saw more new evidence emerge with the Fed’s preferred inflation measure being released and confirmation spending is dropping. We also share gold’s performance in various currencies this century.
Russia is demanding payment in Rubles for Oil and Gas with a number of Finance Ministers from NATO countries pushing back. With rumours swirling of Russia taking payment in gold or bitcoin for oil and gas, the Russian Central Bank is buying gold from banks at a rate of 5,000 Rubles per gram (AU$2170/oz) from 28 March to 30 June. Putin has argued that trust in the US Dollar has taken a major blow, and that many countries are now starting to convert their paper assets into real reserves of raw materials, land, food and gold.
On Monday we talked to asset performance in a stagflationary environment. Since then we have seen nearly the entire spectrum of US Treasury bonds invert, an event with a 100% track record of ushering in a new recession. Today we look into why and what happens next.
The Bitcoin market has seen a stronger week, rallying off the lows of $40,710 US, and breaking out of the consolidation range to a new local high of $47,649. This is the first sustained rally after many months of sideways choppy price action.
Each year one of the most eagerly anticipated annuals is the In Gold We Trust report from Switzerland’s Incrementum. As has been the case for a few years now they are pre releasing a teaser chart pack of what’s to come without any written explanation. As we noted last week, the set up now with persistent inflation and slowing growth is that dreaded financial bogey-man, stagflation. We discuss how various assets perform in such an environment.
An Australian based specialist gold consultancy has revealed that Australia has indeed reclaimed the mantel of 2nd biggest gold producer in the world from Russia and is even flirting with taking the number one spot.
With all the talk of commodities like oil and nickel shooting up, precious metals, kings of the commodities, are heating up. Why bother holding the physical when you can just buy shares in a miner? Mining is a very resource intensive business, energy generation, transportation and construction are all major input costs, not to mention labor. While miners have unlimited potential costs, the metal itself has never gone bankrupt.
Bitcoin markets have seen another week of low volatility and price consolidation, trading up from $37,680 US and towards the range high of $42,312 over the weekend. As prices trade within this narrow range, the odds of higher volatility in the near-term build.
Today we share 3 very compelling charts for silver. This first shows something that has only happened 2 times previously back to 1970 and heralded 2200% and 730% gains thereafter.
Meme stock and Reddit market darling AMC has just taken a 22% strategic position in Hycroft Mining (NASDAQ: HYMC) in a US$27.9 million all cash trade. The pre-production silver miner has 600 million ounces of silver alongside 15 million ounces of gold in northern Nevada. With continued demand for the precious metal outstripping demand, AMC may be the one of the first listed companies outside of the mining sector racing to secure ounces in the ground.
As we previewed yesterday the US Fed last night raised rates by 0.25% to tackle rampant inflation. Big deal right? However markets reacted strongly because the same markets who have been pricing in 7 rates hikes this year were surprised when…. the Fed agreed!! Yep, the Fed is now openly forecasting a rate hike at every one of its remaining 6 monthly meetings this year. Buy the rumour sell the fact saw shares rip higher, the USD falling and the yield curve flattened like a pancake. Gold called BS on it all and rallied. The problem locally is the AUD rallied too and took all those gains…. For now…
Unless you live under a rock, you may have heard the US Fed meet tonight and will almost certainly raise US rates for the first time since December 2015. Since we left the gold standard, there is a 100% track record of every reversal of rate policy triggering a recession soon after. 100%. And yet last night growth shares surged, the NASDAQ up over 3%, and gold, silver and bonds all came off. Why?
Bitcoin accumulation trends have softened in the short term, despite extremely constructive long-term demand trends. The potential energy for a capitulation event is in place but is yet to manifest as it has in previous market cycles.
We often talk about the supply, demand, price equation in a market where hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of ‘paper assets’ try to buy the meagre (now) $8 trillion of gold or more importantly $1.5 trillion of investable gold. You can’t simply change the supply of gold. Period. That leaves price as the only parameter that can adjust to fit that all in. It has been some time since we shared Exters Pyramid but it is timely to do so again now.
The Bitcoin market is in a delicate equilibrium, with limited incoming demand, alongside a slowing sell-side. Let’s analyse exchange flows specifically to assess the characteristics of Bitcoin sales.
Friday night was another volatile one on global markets with the bearish news of the Russian attack on the power plant and the conflicting news of the US NFP employment figures showing a much stronger than expected surge in new jobs of 678K (v 423K expected) but also unexpectedly weak wage growth of just 0.5% amid the rampant inflation reinforcing Main Street America is going backwards. This sets the scene for Bloomberg’s Spot Commodity Index printing its biggest jump since the stagflation crisis of 1974.
Russia’s Central Bank has upped rates to 20% p.a to cajole depositors to keep their currency in bank coffers, but for many, that offer hasn’t proven quite enticing enough. The last two days have seen long lines for ATMs across the country. Major bank Sberbank has seen a 97% cash outflow from it’s UK listed equity and the Ruble has been butting up against a rate of 1:117 all week. We discuss fractional banking at both the individual and sovereign level…
Global markets have faced a very sobering week, as armed conflict breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. As a global macro asset, and with markets that never close, the price of Bitcoin was quite volatile in response. This week the market traded down to a low of $34,474, before rapidly recovering to a high of $44,200 this morning.
With “What does SWIFT do? And why does it matter to Russia?” trending on Twitter, it seems like WWIII is quickly turning into a conflict defined by digital payments. Opposing forces are seeking to freeze each other’s assets and cut off each other’s payment gateways with almost as much tenacity as those in armed conflict on the ground and in the air. Does Ukraine represent a tectonic shift in global payments and currencies?
An interview with Collective Shift.
Let's talk about today's hot topic, which is GOLD vs. BITCOIN: Which is better.
There has always been a never-ending debate about gold being an asset with good returns on investment for ages.
Over the past few years, Blockchain has gone on to prove to be one of the best investments as well.
Let's dig deep into this audio and analyze how gold and bitcoin investments have grown in the cryptocurrency market
The outlook for silver demand is promising for 2022, with global silver demand forecast to rise to a record high of 1.112 billion ounces (Boz) in 2022.
Crescat Capital’s latest research letter talks to a “Trifecta of Macro Imbalances” that presents what they call a “highly explosive mix” for the economy. We outline the implications for the broader economy and precious metals in particular.
Bitcoin bulls face several headwinds, ranging from dwindling demand on-chain, to over 4.7M BTC held at an unrealised loss.
While the world’s central banks have been buying government bonds with freshly printed currency hand over fist since the GFC, the Bank of Japan stands out as both the first to monetise debt in such a way, starting in 2001, but also facilitating Japan holding the title of world’s most indebted nation with a debt to GDP ratio of over 260%. On news they will buy unlimited bonds at 0.25%, the contrast between the BoJ and western central banks is telling, and we discuss.
Gold and silver had another very strong night last night as shares again fell heavily. Whilst in part this continues geopolitical anxiety over the Ukraine, the bigger driver appears to be the US economy and by extension the global economy as it is the same theme of central bank overreach or ‘policy error’ tightening into a weakening economy. We discuss the latest calls from big banks about gold’s prospects.
In the midst of continuing and peaceful Freedom Convoy protests in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has declared Martial Law, and can now seize citizens’ bank accounts leaving no recourse. The friction between Government powers and individual liberties continues to intensify. It also makes a perfect case for having some wealth outside of the traditional banking system, whether that be precious metals or cryptocurrencies. We discuss and provide independent storage options available.
Gold and silver took a bit of a hit last night on news that Putin had withdrawn some troops and the inference that the invasion is no longer on. Despite Biden ‘reassuring’ everyone that the reports were ‘not verified’ and that an attack is “still very much a possibility” the market elected to go with everything is awesome again. However we share more insights from Goldman Sachs and others on why gold is still the asset du jour….
Bitcoin investors have de-risked as global macro headwinds increase. In particular, traders eye the proposed Fed rate hikes in March, opting for protective insurance over speculative calls.
The drums of war are sounding louder than ever and on Friday night’s ‘confirmation’ that Russia is to invade Ukraine this week, both gold and silver surged nearly 2.3% whilst shares fell around the same. That this comes at exactly the time that the market is worried about an ‘extraordinary meeting’ to be called by the Fed to bring forward rate hikes adds to instability facing them right now. This set up has all the ingredients of the so called Minsky Moment. We explain.
Wow. The US CPI print came in last night and again exceeded expectations at a blisteringly hot 7.5%, the highest seen since March of 1982 (when rates were 11.5% not zero). This was the 9th beat of ‘transitory’ expectations in the last 11 months, but it was the market, a Fed member reaction and, most importantly, history that should have holders of financial assets worried.
Shadow Finance Minister Pierre Poilievre’s speech to the Canadian parliament has shown that often the simplest questions are the hardest to answer. Faced with a request to approve an additional CA$7bn in expenditure, Poilievre asked 10 of the highest level bureaucrats from the finance department, “Where does the money come from?” Are we seeing the beginnings of governments returning to sound money?
A number of financial news sites are running the story of the head of Goldman Sach’s commodities division, Jeff Currie, making the explosive comments in a Bloomberg interview earlier this week that “I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this……This is a molecule crisis. We share an article exploring where silver fits in this complex.
After three months in a persistent downtrend, the Bitcoin market has found some strength, with the market trading above and holding the psychological $40k US level. Have we experienced THE bottom? Let’s investigate.
Last week the US hit a milestone no one could have thought possible only a few years ago. The US government is now the proud owner of $30 trillion of debt. As at the end of January they owed $30,012,386,059,238… The US national debt has tripled in just a decade. We discuss where to from here.
Yesterday we wrote of the very high likelihood the US Fed will be tightening into an already peaking economy and the cyclical resonance effect being potentially very bad for markets. Its a must read if you missed it and is a precursor to today’s ‘part 2’ piece delving into Julian Brigden’s latest insights. Today we look at the role of inventories in these cycles. We’d venture that not one reader has not been affected by inventory effects since COVID but few would realise their causation in the economy.
Today we explore a bit deeper into the view held by many respected analysts that the US Fed, and certainly by extension our own RBA, will be tightening policy into an economy or business cycle coming off its peak… i.e. the very worst time to be doing so.
Bitcoin enters its 82nd day of the prevailing drawdown, as derivatives traders bet on further downside. Meanwhile, on-chain demand models suggest a more bullish undertone is in play.
The World Gold Council’s full year demand trends report is out and as usual we summarise for you. In short a strong Q4 lifted full demand up a solid 10%.
Yet another night of red on Wall Street and more big names calling for worse to come. Legendary billionaire co founder of the $65b hedge fund GMO has come out calling for a 50% crash in US shares and Goldman Sachs calling trouble ahead and recommending gold as a key investment right now.
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is investigating a gold-backed stablecoin, a “golden ruble” according to Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Industry and Trade, Vladimir Gutenev. He argues that gold is undervalued compared with the US Dollar, Euro and other fiat-backed currencies. With no national fiat currency holding any tether to gold since 1971, Russia may well be positioning themselves for a first mover advantage in a new global gold standard.
As Bitcoin prices are cut in half from the ATH, the market experiences a large onchain capitulation event, with $2.5B in net realised losses. So, are we heading into a bear market?
On Friday we wrote of the misconception that gold goes down when rates go up. Indeed the opposite is the case. Part of this is the reality of market behaviour after a recession. Friday night dished up another salient reminder of how these easy money markets are taking to just the threat of tighter policy with another sea of red across all markets except precious metals. Today we present the opposing case to the prominent high growth high inflation narrative.
Few investors realise that central banks are nearly always too late to raise rates and tighten financial conditions. For that reason, gold has a history of rising on increased rates not the seemingly intuitive reverse of that. Yesterday we saw spectacular jobs figures for Australia which, when combined with high inflation, effectively force the RBA’s hand to raise rates. However, those reading this as the signal to buy equities and property because ‘everything is awesome’ may be sorely disappointed. Such record low unemployment figures (albeit measured before the impacts of Omicron), normally come at the end of economic cycles not the start.
Equities markets have painted red all around the world these last couple of days and again it was the tech ‘growth’ shares that faired the worst. The NASDAQ is now down more than 10% putting it into a technical correction for the first time since the COVID plunge in March 2020. Growing fears around central banks removing support are spreading. So why have gold and in particular silver surged? Simplistically investors have been dismissing the seemingly nonsensical valuations of these hand full of tech growth shares (that also completely dominate indexes) on the basis that “fundamentals don’t matter”. The story goes that fundamentals don’t matter because all the new money being injected into the system had to be put somewhere right? So it makes sense then that when said free money is being withdrawn or more expensive to get, that people start to think about fundamentals again…
Speaking with Wall Street Silver earlier this week Rick Rule argued that it will take more than one year of 7% CPI expansion for main street to jump on the inflation fear train. The last forty years of declining real interest rates and highly accommodative monetary policy have meant that investors don’t fear inflation or the consequences of higher interest rates. Inflation hasn’t been here for long enough to really scare people, two full generations of institutional money managers haven’t experienced it.
The Bitcoin market returned to a more docile state following a fear-fuelled last week. Investors and traders appear to be digesting the macro possibilities within this new inflationary regime markets we have entered, alongside an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve. This change in tune has rattled the Bitcoin market in the short term and is at risk of taking control over its medium-term prospects.
On Friday we brought you part 1 of the latest World Gold Council Gold Outlook 2022 report. Today the second part talks to inflation, real interest rates, market volatility and gold drivers outside all of that.
The World Gold Council have just released their Gold Outlook 2022 report. It’s a relatively lengthy read so we are bringing it to you in 2 parts. Today we look at the very topical impact of rising rates in the US. We mentioned yesterday that the 3-4 rate hikes the Fed is now signalling has been so well signalled that the market has now priced it in. It was another sea of red on wall street last night so maybe it is still digesting it… That said the WGC point out a very interesting and bullish dynamic about such signalling v reality for gold. Sell the rumour, buy the fact is a thing.
US Treasuries and Government bonds the world over are offering nominal anemic yields that have investors looking further afield. 10-Year Bonds in Australia are returning 1.8%, approximately half of the 3.20% annualised inflation rate predicted by the RBA in 2022. With cash in the bank getting eaten away, the Big 4 banks offering 0.25 - 0.30% on fixed term deposits, and the hidden risk of bail-ins(without due return on said risk), more and more savers are moving funds out of the system.
There appears a large portion of economic forecasters predicting that 2022, whilst more volatile than normal, could see continued strong gains in US shares despite the still sky-high valuations. Already this year we have seen some large losses on US shares and then a strong rally like last night. Last night everything went up except the USD and all on the back of Fed chair Powells virtue signaling of ‘we’ve got this’. Today we talk about why passive ETF’s and lack of breadth could see them most certainly ‘not got it’…
With onchain indicators hitting significantly oversold conditions, Bitcoin futures markets see all-time-high leverage, with increased chances of volatility, and a short squeeze bias.
As alluded to in our annual wrap up last year, the technical cup and handle formation for gold is clear, with a number of prominent market commentators pointing to it.
A bit of a longer one today but it is a critical read if you want to understand the ‘big picture’. This is the macro of macro.. We summarise Ray Dalio’s latest piece on the changing world order and how that impacts investment. A fascinating look at the current setup in the long term historical context as we try to make sense of these times.
Whilst there is growing consensus around strong inflation and the subsequent need for the Fed and other central banks to tighten monetary policy, respected analyst Raoul Pal has maintained his view throughout that the inflation will be somewhat transitory and a global slowdown, and indeed an “economic inflection point” is close.
Bitcoin endured a second consecutive week of price ranging, following the sharp drawdown in early December. After opening at $50,093 US, the price saw a high of $50,186 and a low of $45,671, a compressed range that spanned only $4,515, with BTC closing out the week down -6.1% presenting a great opportunity for investors to top up their crypto portfolio.
We’ve mentioned the ‘perverse distortions’ currently fundamental to the current market set up. Such distortions are seeing some financial assets and property at ridiculous highs and all on the back of record debt levels at near zero rates. With interest rates looking set to rise amid said debt it is prudent to remind ourselves in a few telling charts where we are at and where gold and silver sit amongst it.
Friday night saw the latest NFP employment figures out of the US and whilst it was a big miss in the number of newly employed at just 210,000 the unemployment rate dropped as participation remains stubbornly low. This has experts wondering if the participation rate has been structurally changed by COVD. We discuss the impacts on the AUD.
As we wrote on Wednesday, even Fed Chair Jerome ‘Transitory’ Powell is conceding this inflation set up is anything but transitory. The problem is they are still citing ‘supply chain issues’ as the key driver but the evidence on the demand side is just as compelling. Australia is already seeing the unintended consequences of the ‘policy error’…
We discuss the big moves in markets yesterday and overnight as Powell drops ‘transitory’, Moderna warn around vaccines and Omicron and then Julian Brigden’s massive call on the USD. Certainly a must read today.
The market continues to drawdown this week, despite Short- and Long-Term investors holding more profitable supply than the recent correction in September. Bitcoin traded lower this week, alongside weakness across many traditional assets, largely due to renewed concerns over new virus variants. Bitcoin's price opened at a high of $59,339 US and reached the lowest price for the month of $53,569. This continues the price correction that has been in play for most of November.
The following Tweet on Saturday whilst with a Bitcoin ending is just as applicable and bullish for gold and silver. Its about money and it is a fantastic journey through history that everyone should read. We don’t know or implicitly endorse the author, but to be fair he largely drew from an interview with Roaul Pal who we do rate.
Gold has had a wild old ride over the last month, surging to highs not seen in a year before falling back to August levels over the last week. Today we look at why and where to from here?
Gold is going parabolic in Turkey just as the citizens of Venezuela turn to flakes of gold to pay for goods and services. Yesterday, the Turkish Lira fell to a historic low in USD terms, as annual inflation now nears 20%. They aren’t the only two inflation hot-spots, with threats of “super-inflation” brewing across the globe.
Sovereign states are again piling into gold. The world’s central banks net bought 393 tonne of gold in the first 3 quarters of this year, more than all of the full year’s 255 tonne bought in 2020. China is back with vengeance, Russia too and Poland’s central bank president laid out very clearly why they will buy another 100 tonne next year. We put Australia into context and discuss.
The Bitcoin price tumbled this week from a high of $66,281 to a low of $55,705, rattling a previously quiet and bullish run-in price action. While price stays pinned below new highs and sentiment remains scattered, Bitcoin's stakeholders are actively adjusting to new market information. This has shown up as a recent shifting of coin distribution amongst holders.
The CFTC, US commodities watchdog, has announced a $200 million payday for a whistleblower who provided significant contributions to ‘enforcement actions that have resulted in monetary sanctions totalling more than $3 billion. Given that the largest (known) CFTC fine was JP Morgans for $920 million for manipulating precious metals markets, market commentators are speculating that the two may be connected.
Bitcoin just got better! Block 709,632 was officially the first Bitcoin block mined with the new Taproot upgrade. This marks the first upgrade since 2017 which saw both the “soft fork” Segregated Witness as well as a “hard fork” which led to the creation of Bitcoin Cash. Let’s take a dive in and see what this upgrade has in store for Bitcoin and it’s hodlers.
It is becoming increasingly hard for ‘believests’ to ignore what is so clearly coming in The Lucky Country and that directly correlates with Ainslie being increasingly busy with people buying up bullion and crypto to protect themselves. Today we talk to the RBA’s failed YCC experiment and the problem it leaves behind with no real solution.
Last week's “surprise” inflation numbers rippled through the mainstream financial media. While precious metals investors have seen this coming since QE1, the last few weeks have seen growing murmurs coming from traditional media that are now gathering consensus. Tasked with controlling inflation, the Federal Reserve has been hailed as the savior of financial markets since the GFC, but we may be seeing the first signs of the hens coming home to roost on their policies.
So what’s the best thing you could do to ease multi-decade-high inflationary pressures and record high ($29 trillion + $159 trillion unfunded) debt burdens if you were the US Government? Approve a $1 trillion deficit funded infrastructure plan of course! This week saw exactly that happen and on Monday Joe Biden will sign the largest federal investment in infrastructure bill in over a decade. Moreover, in securing the deal he got Democrat support too for ANOTHER $1.75 trillion for the Build Back Better bill (social safety net and climate package) and a commitment to railroad it past the Republicans in the senate.
2.75 thousand billion dollarspaid for, not through tax receipts, but by issuing more debt with the disarming name of US Treasury bonds… We discuss and share an excellent insight on it all from one of our favourite economists. Take the time to read it all over the weekend.
Bitcoin has had a remarkably strong week, consolidating between $59,743 US and $64,242, holding onto almost all of Octobers gains. As the Bitcoin price coils into what appears to be a very tight bull flag, the onchain market continues to show strength in supply dynamics, whilst onchain activity remains well below bull market highs.
The Gamestop and AMC mania of early 2021 lit a fire underneath young investors, capturing the imaginations of a new generation. Starting off as an offshoot of its namesake, r/wallstreetsilver now plays host to 165,000 “apes”, with hundreds “in the jungle” at any one time. The movement also has a Youtube channel with interviews with many of the industry heavy hitters, and an extremely active community of silver bugs.
Gold and silver had strong rallies last night, reclaiming what was lost after the Fed taper announcement and more. Whilst the financial markets rejoice at the Fed maintaining zero interest rates for longer and only very slowly reducing QE, the realization that this will do nothing to quell surging inflation is returning to the investment narrative. Today we discuss how the RBA fit in here and what may be ahead for Aussie property.
Buy the rumour sell the fact became sell the rumour buy the fact last night as the Fed confirmed it will commence tapering this month and shares….. went up!? In a classic human behavioural response given the almost certain announcement, the market clearly hasn’t put the following 2 charts side by side…
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released it’s monthly statement on Monetary Policy Decisions. They are continuing to purchase bonds issued by the Australian Government at a rate of A$4 billion per week. The cash rate remains at 0.10%, a rate it has remained at now since November of 2020. They have halted their yield curve control program and quietly dropped the written assurance rates won’t rise until 2024 in the only concession to rising inflation. The RBA has also quietly tripled their holdings in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
The World Gold Council’s quarterly demand trends report is out for Q3 and as usual we summarise for you.
Mergers and acquisitions are picking up in both the precious metals and base metals miners as majors scramble to guarantee ongoing supply. The combination of reduced exploration due to persistently low metals prices as well as additional demand attributable to the ‘costs of going green’ are leading to a trend of consolidation in the sector.
Like it or loath it, the fact is that the US economy and its puppeteer, the US Federal Reserve, call the global economic shots. Custodians of the world’s reserve currency, issuer of the world’s largest debt pile, and of course the world’s largest economy. In this context when one of the most respected economists, Mohamed A. El-Erian, warns that the Fed is risking a “historic policy error whose negative implications could last for years and extend well beyond the U.S.”, well, you listen.
Bitcoin has rallied to new all-time highs this week, following the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Ticker $BITO). The market pushed above Aprils previous ATH ($64,717 US) to reach a new peak of $66,928 US. The market has since corrected, putting in a weekly low of $59,722.
The world’s biggest consumers of gold, China and India are both showing early signs of a big rebound in demand. This coincides with early signs that Australia may take over the world’s biggest producer crown as Chinese gold production falls further. We discuss.
The race to decarbonise is leading governments to look at alternative energy sources such as hydrogen. From Boris Johnson’s 10-point plan for a “green industrial revolution”, to significant subsidies to Chinese fuel cell producers, hydrogen is set to continue to emerge as a major economic sector. Platinum is an irreplaceable component in both the energy production side as well as the fuel cell storage.
Whilst we will most certainly look back in abject wonder at this current economic setup, whether we do so with glee or regret largely depends on how you position yourself now. Today we discuss a record divergence and present Julian Brigden’s call to buy platinum and silver now.
It has been an exciting week for Bitcoin investors as the SEC approves the first Bitcoin futures backed ETF product. The market continued to rally on the news from a low of $54,370 US to a high of $62,503. At the weekly peak, prices were within $2,214 of the current all-time-high at $64,717.
Silver investors are often unaware of where it comes from and where it goes. Today we share a great info graphic from Visual Capitalist on where it comes from but first for some context before you read those numbers we look at what happened in the paper markets over the last week.
China, it seems, can’t grab a break. Amid the turmoil of the much talked about property crisis, the Chinese engine room, manufacturing, is showing signs of stress that may force Beijing’s hand on the monetary stimulus lever at the very worst time. We outline why and why this is a global issue, not just a Chinese one.
The Bitcoin market has continued to show strength this week, with prices trading within a tight consolidation range, with a low at $53,657, and a high of $56,250. Following an impressive rally from the September lows, the market has managed to hold onto the gains whilst on-chain activity has commenced a welcome climb higher.
Whilst all focus on construction in the press appears to concentrate on COVID workplace restrictions, an even bigger threat is quietly building, and that is the supply and cost of materials. With so much riding on construction in this country the lack of discourse on materials threatens a rude shock.
Yesterday we queried when silver may get caught up in the global supply chain squeeze affecting so many commodities right now. Today we put the demand and supply equation firmly into perspective particularly against the paper futures market positions arguably holding that price back.
Clear and concerning signals out of China and the US are coinciding with a contemporary reminder of the impacts of abuse of a Fiat currency when Venezuela again just cut six zeros from the bolivar currency in response to hyperinflation. We share some excellent insight into the state of play in the global monetary system.
Manufacturers and producers fighting increasing cost pressures are increasingly resorting to ‘shrinkflation’, offering a marginally smaller version of the same product, at the same price. If changes are incremental, then consumers are unlikely to notice the difference. While unscrupulous sellers have sought to short change their hapless unsuspecting customers since the dawn of commerce, there is more and more evidence of the purchasing power of many currencies eroding.
Bitcoin's off-chain velocity is at an all-time high. Fiat currency with high velocity is normally a bad sign, but does that rule apply to crypto?
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren have now resigned from their posts after being exposed by the Wall Street Journal for insider trading last week. Kaplan was found to have made major trades in companies such as Tesla, Amazon, Facebook and Johnson & Johnson. Rosengren invested in real estate trusts that dealt with the very mortgage backed bonds that have been bought up by the Fed aggressively in 2020.
The Bitcoin market experienced volatile downside price action this week, opening at $47,328 on Monday and sliding to a low of $39,876. The sell-off comes alongside continued pressure on the industry from regulators, a sell-off in equities markets, challenging conditions in Chinese debt markets, and yet another Bitcoin ban in China.
While trending down from ATH of 125 from last year, the Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) remains at an historically elevated level of 78 at current price levels. This means that you can trade in a single ounce of the yellow metal, and get more than two kilos of silver back. In dollar terms though, Silver is probably the only thing you can buy today for less than it was in 1980.
Capitol Hill Democrats are taking aim at U.S based mining projects with an 8% royalty fee on existing mines and 4% on new mines. The royalties are on precious metals as well as base metals such as copper and lithium. This added drag on mining would act as a headwind to already struggling metal supplies.
Last night saw the latest US Fed meeting and (finally) ‘confirmation’ of what they have been jawboning for a while and that is tapering of QE to ‘likely’ start next month. Maybe because of all the lead up references the market did not, at this point, chuck a so called ‘taper tantrum’ as has occurred on previous attempts. We discuss.
The Bitcoin market traded slightly higher this week, opening at a low of $43,789 US, and trading up to an intra-day high of $48,730. Prices are forming a consolidation trading range after the volatile sell-off that started last week, clearing $4B in excess leverage in one hour.
It's Friday and whilst not the 13th, it ends the week that marked the 13th anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapsing and cementing the contagion of what would become the GFC, one of the worst financial crashes in history. So over leveraged was the system that it’s all it took for the whole house of cards to come down. Coincidentally this week also saw China’s largest property developer, $300 billion Evergrande, technically default as well as the Institute of International Finance (IIF) releasing its latest global debt figures headlining another record high. We discuss the implications.
Whales moving the markets are more common in crypto, but since 10 August, a new major player has appeared on the long side of the gold futures contracts market. Raw data shows a large non-commercial trader has amassed as many as 40,000 COMEX gold contracts, the equivalent of 4 million ounces of gold - a cool $AU9.85bn.
Last night saw more losses on Wall St as the CPI inflation print again came in strong, albeit slightly lower than expectations. ‘Transitory’ took another hit. This fuelled a strong gold rally and shares fell, now putting them in the red for the month so far. The prospect of higher rates and tapering amid the debate over the US’s next massive $3.5 trillion deficit funding relief package and looming debt ceiling is increasingly weighing on the market’s mind. So let’s look a bit further at what is a truly mind blowing set up in the US.
Wall St had another bad night Friday night, capping off the worst week on the S&P500 since mid June and the first 5 day losing streak since February. The question of course is where to from here? SocGen’s model says 10 years of negative sharemarket returns ahead. Does this see the Fed’s eye’s roll back?
If anyone needed reminding about the extent to which easy money is inflating sharemarkets the charts below paint a clear picture. In a nutshell, the zero interest rate and QE fuelled monetary stimulus central bank policies are designed to rob you of any traditional ‘safe’ yield via savings or bonds and force you to look for yield via shares and make everything look awesome. If you are a company, that includes buying back your own.
The US sharemarket jitters extended last night and is set to see losses in our local market this morning. Whilst some of the pressure was due to weakening growth concerns and worsening COVID fears, paradoxically concerns of tightening supply chains and labour markets yet again raises the dual spectre of forcing the Fed’s hand at tapering amid lurking stagflation.
Famed Fund Manager Mark Mobius has advocated for the Golden Rule: “10% should be put into Physical Gold”. The Mobius Capital Partners founder argued, “Currency devaluation globally is going to be quite significant next year given the incredible amount of money supply that has been printed.”With US$86.6 Million AUM, it’s not the biggest fish in the sea, but is a part of a growing chorus of market participants seeking a safe haven.
Last week we added Polygon (MATIC) to our Ainslie Wealth products. Polygon’s unique features and exciting roadmap make it an opportunity for those looking to diversify their crypto portfolios into some non-top-10 coins. Let’s jump into what the Polygon network does and is attempting to achieve…
There is a sense of growing uncertainty in US equity markets despite, or maybe because of, their hitting all time highs this week amid growing concerns around the Fed’s next move and growth concerns. Last night saw a correction of nearly 1% ostensibly on the back of poor retail sales data joining a host of disappointing economic data potentially signalling weakness ahead. We look at a number of metrics screaming warnings to investors right now and what they say about gold.
The crypto market rallies higher as indications of a Bitcoin on-chain supply squeeze take shape, and Ethereum successfully rolls out EIP1559. After breaking recent highs, the two largest crypto’s look ready to make a run up back to the highs. Let’s jump into some on-chain metrics and have a look at the driving force behind these moves.
There is a growing view by economists that Australia will experience a double dip recession over Q3 and Q4 of this year with the latest from CBA calling for a 2.7% contraction in Q3. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters and with NSW expected to stay in lockdown until mid November as CBA’s base case, and the likelihood of continued but hopefully shorter lockdowns in other states, Q4 seems a real possibility after such a plunge in Q3. The chart below puts that single quarter -2.7% into context with the entire 1990’s recession being -1.7%.
The World Gold Council just released their latest quarterly Gold Demand Trends for Q2 2021 which saw a continuation of rampant bar and coin investment demand and a return to inflows into ETF’s. The quarter saw 955 tonne of gold consumed. As usual, we summarise across all uses and look at supply too.
https://ainsliebullion.com.au
Previous bull markets in gold have seen explosive moves to the upside in both dollar and percentage terms. Since the closing of the Gold Window in 1971, gold has seen two significant bull runs play out: 1971 to 1980 and 1999 to 2011. A number of commentators have argued that the low of US$1040 reached in January 2016 was the bottom of the present long-term bull run.
Over the weekend we saw some good strength return to BTC as it increased off the bottom. Then on Monday, we experienced a textbook short squeeze and the market quickly approached recent highs. Can crypto break out of the recent bear market?
Whilst today we share some excellent insight from Rick Rule, first the important context. Last night saw the 3rd red hot inflation print out of the US in a row. CPI came in nearly double expectations at 0.9% just for June, and Core CPI saw its biggest print in 30 years. The transitory inflation narrative is being severely tested and gold rose on the news. Legendary Rick Rule beautifully describes why.
It has been an impressively quiet week in the crypto markets. Compressed prices alongside low volume indicate that we should see some significant action any day now. The direction this breakout moves will determine what the next few months will look like for BTC, let jump in further…
Graphs and images:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-on-verge-of-breakout-/tabid/88/a/2549/default.aspx
Today we step aside from the financial “monetary precious metal” use case of silver and take a journey through time looking at silver’s use over the millenia courtesy of the guys from Visual Capitalist. It is a salient reminder of silver’s dual use and value as monetary and industrial metal.
Link to big image!
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/silver-through-the-ages-the-uses-of-silver-over-time/
Much of what has driven the price of Bitcoin down has to do with environmental concerns and the crack down on mining by the Chinese government. What many do not appreciate is that the latter could and should fundamentally be a great thing for Bitcoin in the longer term. But emotional markets take on FUD over fact too readily. So why could this be great for Bitcoin? We discuss.
Full article and images:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/china-e2-80-99s-e2-80-9cown-goal-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2537/default.aspx
We recently saw the release of the annual Gold Focus report from the independent precious metals focussed consultancy Metals Focus of London. Not surprisingly, given COVID disruptions, global gold mine production saw the biggest year on year decline since they started the report in 2010. Production fell by 119 tonne (3%) to 3,478 tonne. Today we look at where this came from and look forward to changes in the supply dynamic.
Link to article and images:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-focus-2021-report--e2-80-98peak-gold-e2-80-99/tabid/88/a/2536/default.aspx
Longer term US Treasuries again fell Friday night as the bond ‘market of truth’ is sending an increasingly clear picture that it sees trouble ahead. Importantly too, the yield curve is flattening, big time, with the long term 30yr yield crashing to a 4 month low as 2 year bond yields rose. In other words whilst we might have short term inflation, the market is saying deflation or at least disinflation will prevail and the Fed will crank up the printers again.
https://youtu.be/Q5cpRP61czI
This morning we saw BTC climb above $40k USD. A variety of factors are at play, but one reason may be that Bitcoin has confirmed its first upgrade in four years. Let's jump into it…
Last night’s much anticipated inflation figures out of the US came in even hotter than expected at 5% against 4.7% expected. That is the highest headline inflation print since August 2008, just before Lehman collapsed. More critically the core CPI surged to 3.8%, the highest print in nearly 3 decades, back to the 1992 recession. However the market is still believing this is transitory. Whether it is or not the setup is incredibly constructive for gold. We discuss.
https://youtu.be/5hnH4Vfpivk
China just sent a shockwave warning of potential trouble ahead with the worst PPI (Producer Price Index) or so called ‘factory gate inflation’ print since the GFC. Coming in above already high expectations of 8.5%, the 9.0% print was also just shy of the all time record of 10% during the GFC. However the kicker was that CPI only rose by 1.3% which was less than expectations of 1.6%. The difference between PPI and CPI is the greatest since 1993.
Chart images: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/china-e2-80-99s-ppi-near-all-time-record/tabid/88/a/2526/default.aspx
Or our YouTube for today: https://youtu.be/6oDZC1uaEFc
El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has announced through his Twitter account that he plans to make Bitcoin, the original and premier cryptocurrency, as a legal tender in their country. If the El Salvador President's proposal goes through, El Salvador will become the first country in the world to legally use Bitcoin as a digital legal tender.
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https://www.youtube.com/c/ainsliebullion
After the better than expected jobless claims we discussed Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls came out on Friday night and fell below expectations but was strong enough to maintain faith in an improving economy. It was the quintessential ‘goldilocks’ outcome to allow the Fed to keep the printers going brrrrrr…
Want to see the images, while listening? Check out our YouTube channel and subscribe.
https://www.youtube.com/c/ainsliebullion
Last night saw the biggest daily gain for the US dollar since September last year on the back of better than expected employment figures via the ADP ahead of the all important NFP employment figures tonight. The USD index jumped 0.65% and back above 90 to 90.5. The spike saw nearly all financials in the red and USD gold smacked down nearly 2% and back under the $1900 line to $1870. Silver was down over 2.5% and back under $28 to $27.53. The AUD dropped to 76.6c on the back of the USD rise and cushioned the falls in AUD terms to 0.8% and 1.4% respectively. Is this a new trend or merely a news bite in the face of a much broader pressure down on the USD. We discuss.
YouTube link : https://youtu.be/a1GV0CxS2N0
The annual In Gold We Trust report has become the most eagerly awaited independent analysis and commentary of gold and silver markets. This week it was released and today we provide links to both the compact and the full 346 page version together with a video of highlights.
Link to Compact Version - Compact Version - English (24 pages)
Link to full version - Full Version - English (346 pages)
Video with the key takeaways of the report - English version
Bitcoin is on track for the second-biggest monthly percentage decline on record, despite bouncing from session lows in Asia. The 37.5% decline in May 2021 is beat only by September 2011's 40%. Let us explain why that may be great for building your portfolio…
The web was aflutter over the weekend with news that the US Mint released an “important update” stating “The global silver shortage has driven demand for many of our bullion and numismatic products to record heights” and “As the demand for silver remains greater than the supply, the reality is such that not everyone will be able to purchase a coin.”. Whilst this focusses on investment demand the Silver Institute also released a report outlining the surging industrial demand for silver, specifically in electronics. We discus
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-demand-explodes-e2-80-93-industrial-and-investment/tabid/88/a/2518/default.aspx
Yesterday we shared an excellent report from Crescat Capital about the economic setup in the US particularly around the impacts leading to inflationary pressures and what that means. Today we share their conclusion as it relates to bullion (spoiler alert… its VERY bullish)
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/early-days-for-precious-metals/tabid/88/a/2517/default.aspx
A longer one today but an excellent piece from Crescat Capital on what we might expect to see from here in the US which both portends similar outcomes here in Australia but also will directly affect Australia via the effects on the US regardless.
Lots of images today, please check out.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-three-pillars-of-inflation/tabid/88/a/2516/default.aspx
Late last week Raoul released a quick update titled “Time to Add” where he reflects on the crypto market after the massive sell off. During extreme market conditions, it helps to look towards experts to keep a level head. Here’s what he had to say -
Images here:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/pal-says-e2-80-9ctime-to-add-e2-80-9d-elon-sees-the-green-light/tabid/88/a/2514/default.aspx
The battle between inflation and maintaining easy monetary policy in the US is starting to show tangible signs of blowing up. As we discussed last week, the Fed are choosing a lower inflation metric to justify their easy money policy, and even the official CPI is understated having long ago removed house prices which are on fire in the US. On the other side last week saw the Fed have to drain over $350b in one day on the REPO market as banks drown in all their printed money, nearly $300b of which they ADDED on that same day….
The Gold Silver Ratio is one of the key metrics studied by precious metals investors, and for good reason. This ratio of the gold price to the silver price has a wonderful track record of flagging not just the obvious relative price of each metal but also shares a strong correlation with the general precious metals markets rallying or turning bearish, i.e. a dropping GSR tends to see both metals rallying and vice versa but silver goes harder on the drop.
Link to charts and images.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-silver-ratio-e2-80-93-coinspot-bundle-launch/tabid/88/a/2512/default.aspx?mc_cid=155f91a563&mc_eid=60df6d1177
Unless you live in a cave you might have heard of a bit of ‘bearish’ action in crypto markets. Last night BTC crashed to just US$31,000 taking the total correction to just under 50% from the 10 May high of US$59,200. Whilst bouncing strongly back, at US$39,500 now it is still down 33%. Ethereum hit US$2000 overnight, also down over 50% from its 12 May high of $4357. Conversely from 7 May when gold finally broke through US$1800 it has rallied to be now US$1870, barely unchanged in last night’s session after reaching US$1890 overnight amid all the market chaos that also saw US shares in the red again. Indeed the only thing demonstrably in the green last night was the USD after the Fed spooked the market with hints at possibly tapering stimulus. We discuss
As consensus amongst analysts grows on the prospect of a progressively weaker USD and stronger gold price, the elephant in the room for locals is of course the AUD in those pairs. Last night gold rose again hitting US$1874 before settling at a still higher US$1870, up $70 in just the 2 weeks since it broke through US$1800. However in AUD terms last night actually saw gold drop nearly $5 to $2400 as the AUD strengthened against the weaker USD. Today we explore whether a dropping USD necessarily means a strengthening AUD.
This week Bitcoins price action has been mostly influenced by Elon Musk's tweets. After tweeting that Tesla will no longer be accepting BTC as payment, the price dived and has continued to gradually retreat from last weeks highs. Despite tweeting yesterday clarifying that Tesla has not sold any of its BTC, the price is still down this morning – possibly presenting a perfect entry/top-up opportunity for investors.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-correction-e2-80-93-what-you-musk-know/tabid/88/a/2509/default.aspx?mc_cid=e7551430f0&mc_eid=UNIQID
You’re spending your life working hard to save for the future and it ALL comes down to where you invest those savings as to what happens from here. You’ve got the GFC still clear in your memory, have just experienced the deepest but shortest recession along with a pandemic and now have an unprecedented economic environment based on central bank and government fiscal stimulus against the biggest debt pile ever. It’s a lot to get your head around. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of London’s Telegraph newspaper outlines this ‘predicament’ and why the Fed may well lose control.
Today we look at a number of charts painting a clearer and clearer picture of a very bullish construct for gold and silver prices going forward.
All images:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-silver-charts-of-truth/tabid/88/a/2507/default.aspx
Amid all the speculation around inflation, last night the rubber hit the road with the release of the latest official US CPI figures. In the context of the US Fed seeking an ‘average’ sustainable 2% inflation rate, the CPI print came in at a blistering hot 4.2% sending shockwaves through markets. We look at this in the context of gold’s decline since last August to the bottom in March and where to from here.
All images from today's news -
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/4-2-us-cpi-e2-80-93-what-it-means-for-gold/tabid/88/a/2506/default.aspx
The warning drums of the implications of this unprecedented monetary stimulus experiment are growing louder and louder. Today we share an article citing concerns from both the BIS and the US’s own Centre for Financial Stability and importantly too, debunking the ‘we didn’t get inflation after GFC QE’ sceptics.
No images today :)
Somewhat quietly, last week was potentially very instructive for the price of gold going forward from here. This move was punctuated by the abysmal US non farm payrolls Friday night and what that really maybe means. But first let’s acknowledge and celebrate gold’s strongest week in over half a year, convincingly smashing back above US$1800 to $1840, itself a 3 month high. Technically too, decisively moving past the support of the so called ‘double bottom’ through the $1700 resistance line has given analysts a lot of confidence that the 7 month fall from August last year is over. We discuss.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/big-week-for-gold-big-miss-for-us/tabid/88/a/2503/default.aspx
The following charts from Crescat paint a salient reminder of the trap the US Fed find themselves in. Real inflation is coming but deficit spending is at an all time high and can’t handle higher rates. We share the recent ‘coal face’ data and the extraordinary ‘twin deficit’ picture before the Fed.
Link to all images today:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/us-twin-deficit-hits-25-of-gdp-/tabid/88/a/2502/default.aspx
Ethereum is often referred to as the silver to bitcoins gold. Traditionally this is because it has a smaller market cap in comparison to Bitcoin. Let’s investigate how valid this comparison is.
Over the long weekend, Ethereum continued to print new all-time highs, topping out this morning at USD 3,324 or roughly $4,300 Aussie. The increase to these levels means Ethereum has quadrupled so far in 2021 – with fundamentals and technical indicators showing no slows to the second-largest crypto's meteoric rise.
The World Gold Council have just released their quarterly update on gold demand and supply and we summarise with key excerpts.
For all images please visit:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/wgc-gold-demand-trends-q1-2021/tabid/88/a/2498/default.aspx
Last night the Fed confirmed they have no intention of lifting the monetary stimulus pedal from the metal, dismissing rising inflation as purely ‘transitory’. And so printers will continue to go brrrr and near free money available to go and inflate the debt bubble further to buy over inflated financial assets and houses. Not surprisingly then, the USD sank further and bonds, gold, bitcoin and shares were all up. Yes that’s right, both the safe havens of bonds, gold and bitcoin were up together with shares. The historic lack of correlation between these classes is for now gone. So which is right?
There are many price prediction models for gold however few could boast the historical performance achieved by the guys at GoldMoney Insights. Their gold price framework draws from 3 main drivers; central bank policy, changes in central bank inventories and longer dated energy prices. We step through each and the bullish setup before us.
Whilst western demand for gold is subdued, demand in the east is booming. We share the latest Swiss export figures which speak volumes. We also share an excellent analysis of just how much gold China really have. Spoiler alert… its MUCH more than the US…
It was another strong night for precious metals last night as the dip having past narrative grows. Whilst silver was again the star of the night (up over 2.5%), platinum was very close behind as it saw further strengthening. Whilst gold has trended down since last August to find a low at the beginning of this month, platinum having had a small correction in August, has been strong since, up nearly 50% since September. We revisit the 460% rise in palladium in the context of an excellent report from the World Platinum Investment Council illustrating why there is still great potential for platinum to follow suit.
On Sunday we saw Bitcoin plunge 15% within a matter of hours, dragging the rest of the market down with it. Despite this action, long term fundamentals remain as strong as ever. Let's dive into why the dip occurred and why now may be the perfect time to enter/top-up.
China has long been the world’s biggest consumer of gold, ahead of India since 2013. Whilst also the world’s largest producer, China is still the world’s largest importer. However as a communist regime, the amount of gold allowed to enter the country is, as with most things, controlled by the Beijing. Reuters just reported they are reopening quotas with a massive 150 tonne worth over $11b set to be imported right from the gun. We discuss.
After what is a prolonged period of price stability (at least in the crypto world), we saw Bitcoin break 60k (USD) and Ether set a new all-time high before both drew back down over the weekend. Let's delve into what's going on in the space and what is driving the latest price movements.
Both gold and silver surged last night with gold up $45 (2%) and silver up 86c (2.7%). Ostensibly this was driven on inflation trades on the back of Biden introducing his $2.25 trillion “American Jobs Plan,” infrastructure stimulus package. However it can’t be ignored that we have now passed the March delivery on COMEX futures when it is ‘convenient’ for those massive bullion bank short positions to have a nice low price….cough, cough
After a major breakout early in March, Platinum has pulled back from psychological resistance at US$1,200 in a healthy consolidating move. The white metal has continued to trade above US$1,160 over the last week reflecting strong support even after a major breakout. We discuss.
Images for charts visible here:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/platinum-e2-80-99s-fundamentals-remain-strong-/tabid/88/a/2479/default.aspx
THETA, the native token of the Theta Network (a sharing economy video delivery network) has been going ballistic this year. Since the beginning of the year, it has increased almost 6-fold. From a year ago, THETA is up a staggering 18,000%. The question is how? Let’s dive into why the market is so excited about THETA…
No images today.
As we sit here amongst the highest global debt pile in history there as yet appears no solution in sight. We often remind readers there are just 3 ways to deal with such a pile of debt… 1. Pay it off with increased economic growth and taxes, 2. Inflate it away with increased inflation, or 3. Default. The last time we were here was 1946. We compare and discuss why this time if different.
Today's image.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cthe-dollar-is-our-currency-but-it-e2-80-99s-your-problem-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2477/default.aspx
Speaking to Bloomberg recently, Ray Dalio (head of the world’s largest hedge fund) argued that we have entered the later part of the long-term debt cycle. We share his thoughts and the latest insights into how much gold Bridgewater owns.
No images today.
Globalisation has been a key economic trend of the last few decades. Never before has the world been so interconnected economically and as COVD painfully revealed, nor have supply chains of essential services been so reliant on off shore suppliers and international freight lines. Such interdependence means a shock or break anywhere in the world can have ramifications across the globe. We discuss the latest events and their ramifications.
Incredibly it is already 1 year ago that sharemarkets bottomed in the COVID crash. Amid all the unprecedented statistics of GDP plummeting and job losses, few would have predicted one of the fastest and strongest recoveries in share prices since – but that’s what has happened. We delve deeper and look at gold and particularly silver from here.
NFTs or non-fungible tokens are shaking up the art world. So much so that one piece of crypto art recently auctioned for more than $69 million. We explore what non-fungible tokens are, and why they're disrupting the future.
No images today.
We share 2 charts painting a picture of the battle between a market inflated by easy, cheap money versus reality and the looming inflation that appears an inevitable outcome of that same easy money. The Fed is stuck in the middle and there appears no easy way out.
Today's images
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/no-way-out/tabid/88/a/2472/default.aspx
This week was notable for the Fed committing to continue printing USD hand over fist and keeping rates at zero to promote borrowing hand over fist. At home the RBA is doing the same. It is therefore a very real stark contrast to look at the new supply of a real monetary asset in comparison. Today we look at silver mine production as the antithesis of fiat money supply.
Images for today's news
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-production-yields-tumble/tabid/88/a/2471/default.aspx
As discussed yesterday, last night we saw the much anticipated March meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the first coinciding with the anniversary of the COVID crisis that saw them unleash unprecedented easy monetary policy and the first since yields in US Treasuries started rising materially. As the Bloomberg headlines says this morning “Powell Holds Dovish Line as Fed Signals Zero Rates Through 2023”, the question on everyone’s lips of whether they would be dovish or hawkish was firmly answered in the dovish, or more easy monetary policy, affirmative. We discuss.
Link to full article.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/fed-keeps-pedal-to-metal/tabid/88/a/2469/default.aspx
The market is nervously awaiting the outcome of tomorrow’s US Fed meeting. Will they be dovish (easing) or hawkish (tightening)? Will their view of the economy be bullish or remain cautious. Today we discuss that it likely doesn’t necessarily matter. We look at market psychology and zoom out to look at long term cycles and where we are right now.
Link to all images
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/listen-to-the-market/tabid/88/a/2468/default.aspx
Bitcoin hit a fresh all-time high over the weekend, almost doubling its price so far in 2021. It took a few attempts to break the psychological 60k USD barrier, but when it did breach it, it did so in spectacular fashion.
Link to images:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-hits-all-time-high-of-2479-400/tabid/88/a/2467/default.aspx
We are arguably in the midst of one of the most artificially constructed economies in modern history. Central banks out of hubris, and governments out of the desire to be re-elected, continue to ‘bail out’ the natural economic cycles arguably ‘needed’ to maintain a sustainably healthy economy. We discuss how this will lead to more frequent crises, shorter economic cycles and abrupt recessions.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-debt-will-bring-more-frequent-crashes/tabid/88/a/2466/default.aspx
This is our final preview of the upcoming ‘In Gold We Trust’ report by Incrementum. The report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020 and due out in May 2021. Today we look at the relative size of precious metals markets against the institutional funds, what that means and a special look at silver.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-institutional-impact-gsr/tabid/88/a/2465/default.aspx
This is our third preview of the upcoming ‘In Gold We Trust’ report by Incrementum . The report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020. On Monday we gave the context of this epic setup for precious metals, yesterday talked to gold’s performance over time and particularly against US shares, and today we look specifically at the inflation genie and its evil brother stagflation.
Images and charts.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-inflation-or-stagflation-/tabid/88/a/2464/default.aspx
This is our second preview of the upcoming ‘In Gold We Trust’ report by Incrementum . The report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020. On Monday we gave the context of this epic setup for precious metals and today we look specifically at gold and how it has performed and why.
Link to full article and images
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-gold-v-shares/tabid/88/a/2463/default.aspx
Ethereum has a new upgrade on the way. The proposed EIP 1559 Upgrade, now called the London Fork, will both lower GAS fees and increase the scarcity of ETH which could lead to a higher price. Let's look at the details…
Link to image.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-ethereum-can-continue-to-outperform-bitcoin/tabid/88/a/2462/default.aspx
The ‘In Gold We Trust’ by Incrementum report is arguably the pre-eminent annual report on gold and silver, read by over 2m people in 2020. Whilst we are still over 2 months away from the release they have given us a teaser with a chart pack. Lets start to unpack this….
Link to article and images (charts)
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-98in-gold-we-trust-e2-80-99-preview-e2-80-93-printers-go-brrrr/tabid/88/a/2461/default.aspx
Cardano Up 477% This Year. What’s All The Hype About?
A week ago, we saw a new cryptocurrency claim the number 3 largest crypto by market cap. This is on the back of an incredible price gain of 625% since the start of the year. So what’s the hype? Let’s jump in…
No images today.
Yesterday we talked about the RBA’s yield curve control program, noting it was one of only a few central banks in the world implementing this strategy. All eyes are now on the Fed as they openly contemplate implementing it in the US as they see longer term bond yields rising to very uncomfortable levels. Last night on Wall St was yet another reminder of how unstable things are in the face of this. We discuss the implications and why it differs to QE.
No images today.
Yesterday the RBA kept things unchanged, maintaining both the cash rate at 0.1% and its $200 billion QE program until it sees sustainable and strong wage growth together with low unemployment. However just the day before the meeting they had to double down on QE to stem the sell off in 10 year bonds. We discuss.
Wow… what a week for crypto. Last Monday we say the largest single day pullback in Bitcoin’s already volatile history. Bitcoin was down 24% in the seven days through Sunday. It's also the worst weekly performance since March 2020. Prices have declined on six of the past seven days.
Today's images
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/this-is-what-bitcoin-does/tabid/88/a/2457/default.aspx
The Fed Is Trapped – “the beginning of a secular bull market for precious metals”
Crescat Capital have just released their February research letter and it’s a cracker. Below is the author’s Tweeted summary from last week to put this current turn in the market succinctly into perspective and why they think gold and silver are about to enter a new secular bull market.
View all today's images.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-fed-is-trapped-e2-80-93-e2-80-9cthe-beginning-of-a-secular-bull-market-for-precious-metals-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2456/default.aspx
One year ago we had the first big financial market sell off on the back of COVID hitting ‘the west’ and the realization this thing was big. Last night saw the worst equities & bonds rout since March. 113m cases, 2.5m deaths and much of the world in lock down at various times and we finally have a vaccine and ‘hope’ creeping back into the market, winding up the spring, albeit arguably prematurely. But could that ‘sprung coil’ be the undoing?
Link to all the images and charts.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/one-year-on-e2-80-93-covid-responses-come-home-to-roost/tabid/88/a/2455/default.aspx
AUD kisses 80c – What comes next?
Last night saw a rebound on Wall Street despite falls on opening after the Fed doubled down on its dovish jawboning. That saw a reprieve in bond yields, shares up, gold down and further strengthening in silver and platinum on the reflation trade. It also of course saw the USD down and the AUD firming to kiss 80c. We discuss the implications.
All of today's images
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/aud-kisses-80c-e2-80-93-what-comes-next-/tabid/88/a/2454/default.aspx
Another day another Wall St heavyweight warning of the ‘everything bubble’ looking extreme. The head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, shared his ‘bubble indicator’ yesterday, giving an insight into how Bridgewater assess this current extreme situation.
All the charts... click through to view.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/dalio-e2-80-99s-6pt-e2-80-9cbubble-indicator-e2-80-9d-at-extreme/tabid/88/a/2453/default.aspx
Why Rising Rates are the Pin for this Bubble
In a bubble looking for a pin, maybe the biggest threat (pin) developing is the rise in yields or interest rates as we discussed in part on Friday. We share and discuss a typically concise and easy to understand explanation from Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice on the troubles ahead.
No images today... Enjoy the cast!
The ‘everything bubble’ is starting to look increasingly shakey. Last night, literally everything except platinum, which seems bullet proof at present, was sold off… everything. Even the Bitcoin rocket briefly levelled out but admittedly Ethereum surged again to new highs. Whether cause or effect, that of course included US Treasuries which saw 10yr yields rise above 1.3% and into territory that is becoming scary for this bubble. We discuss the implications.
Click to view image within news.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Portals/0/newsfeed/Feb%202021/19/1_%20bbg%20canary.jpg
The last couple of weeks have been extraordinary for silver, starting with the #silversqueeze movement which saw unprecedented sales of both physical silver and silver ETF shares and the accompanying massive spike of silver being delivered to the vaults backing these shares. Today we talk to the accompanying squeeze in supply and a stark warning from the world’s biggest silver ETF. It’s a must read for silver investors or those considering it.
Image to graph referenced
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Portals/0/newsfeed/Feb%202021/17/1_%20silver%20out.jpg
The crypto market went through a “shake out” event yesterday, dropping 7% from its new record high. Despite this rapid fall, institutions seem confident about the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects.
Another day, another record. For the first time in history the US sharemarket is valued, or more accurately*, priced, at twice the US economy measured by GDP. * Remember price is what you pay, value is what you get. Don’t get the 2 confused.
Gold rose last night despite weaker than expected inflation data out of the US which saw the USD continue its slide and bond yields dip even further as expectations of even more monetary stimulus were essentially locked in. Bonds yields dropped but the incredible news is the extent to which the junkiest of junk has reached new records. What does this portend?
Bitcoin’s price exploded last night and took most other crypto’s with it. Almost hitting US$44,000 or AU$57,000 earlier this morning, the price is sticking near that spike, still up 13% from yesterday. The reason was simple, the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, just reported that Tesla has bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin with its cash reserves. Why? We share an excellent value proposition for Bitcoin by another Wall St legend.
Last week was one many will never forget for silver. We now have full visibility of the extent of the record inflows into ETF’s, COMEX and mutual funds and not only was it the highest on record, an eye watering 68.3 million oz, it was the highest by a margin of nearly 50%. In addition, there are no end of stories about shortages for physical silver, particularly in the US. (we still have plenty of stock of most core items… for now.) We compare to gold and revisit the tantalising GSR setup.
The CEO of Metals Daily, Ross Norman has an unparalleled track record of winning or near winning the annual LBMA price forecasting survey, including winning it for both gold and silver last year. So what does he see for 2021? Read on…
OK, that might be a little click bait-ish… But platinum demand is increasing along with its value and it has seen cases of exhaust system catalytic converter theft booming across the US.
For graphs and pictures
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/platinum-supplies-e2-80-98exhausted-e2-80-99-/tabid/88/a/2439/default.aspx
On Monday we wrote about the WallStreetBets (WSB) reddit group orchestrating a short squeeze on the silver market. We discussed at that time the various reasons and sheer scale of the short positions in the silver market and questioned the ability of WSB to move such a big market compared to say GameStop (GME). With hindsight now, the squeeze did indeed see prices rise significantly and now retrace over half of that gained, still up around 4% from when news broke. This has many asking ‘where to from here?’.
It's that time of year when we get the World Gold Council release their Full Year Gold Demand Trends report, this time for that year we will never forget, 2020. As it was in so many ways, the year was one of contradictions in the gold market as well. In the year we saw a new all time high price, we also saw weaker than average demand despite record demand in ETF’s over the full year.
Short news today as it’s all hands on deck here. The weekend saw unprecedented (yep the 2020 word de jour is back in 21) silver demand with both Ainslie web orders and Silver Standard (AGS) sales on CoinSpot and Bamboo literally through the roof. We discuss.
Silver surged by over 5% last night helped, it seems, in no small part by the now infamous WSB or WallStreetBets reddit group that saw the likes of GameStop shares surge by 1700% in days. Trade in our Silver Standard (AGS) silver backed tokens last night on CoinSpot was huge. So what is WSB about?
Maybe one of the best visual analogies you will see around current financial markets came via Raoul Pal recently writing for GMI’s Macro Insiders talking to Road Runner’s infamous coyote running off the cliff, legs still spinning…
The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation has been on a tear in 2021, almost doubling its price since the 1st of January. We discuss what is driving this and where it might go.
Last week saw an 8 year record high inflow of silver into ETF’s and the like. At the same time insiders are bailing out whilst their companies’ share buybacks surge again. We discuss the recurring phenomena of smart money bailing to mums and dads before a crash.
Maybe one of the biggest questions for 2021 is that of inflation. Today we share just a couple of charts that paint a very clear picture of rates and inflation expectations and gold’s historic performance mapped against that.
Yesterday’s article raised the financial concept again of Stock to Flow but dealt mainly with how it applies to Bitcoin. Today we go back and look more fully at stock to flow as it applies to gold and silver courtesy of an article penned by the infamous annual In Gold We Trust report from 2014.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/gold-silver-stock-to-flow/tabid/88/a/2430/default.aspx
We are currently witnessing a financial fundamentals divergence of an order never before seen. In one corner we now have both fiscal and central bank doves printing currency at unprecedented rates. On the other we have finite, low supply of monetary assets in precious metals and Bitcoin. We discuss and share why predictions of $115,000 BTC by August could be accurate.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/products/silver-bullion/1kg-silver-coin-2021-kookaburra-perth-mint/tabid/85/cat/2/id/240/default.aspx
Recently Bitcoin experienced a much-expected pull back. Bitcoin, over its short history, has established a trademark “dip” of 20-30% during bull markets. This price usually precedes further extraordinary gains… will it happen again?
The Silver Institute recently released a report on the burgeoning use of silver in vehicles and particularly electric vehicles (EV’s). From the report:
“While highly variable across different vehicle types and markets, our research suggests a range of 0.5 to 0.9 ounces (15-28 grams) is consumed in one internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, with higher loadings estimated for hybrid and then electric cars. Even so this may sound extremely modest, but it is worth noting that in 2021 global light vehicle (LV) production is expected to be around 85m units (source: LMC Automotive). (While this report focuses on LVs, it is important to acknowledge the use of silver components in both motorcycles and heavy duty vehicles, although in each segment silver loadings will be far lower than in LVs.) This in turn suggests that silver auto demand this year will be in the region of 61Moz (1,900t). To offer some perspective, this compares with the forecast 98Moz (3,000t) of silver that Metals Focus expects to be consumed in the photovoltaic industry in 2021”
Markets are aflutter with the reports of a $2 trillion stimulus package to be announced tonight (US time, this morning ours) by Biden. We unpack what this means and share the sage advice of an 82 year investment legend who has seen a bubble to two…
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/biden-e2-80-99s-242t--e2-80-9cthe-most-important-event-of-your-investing-lives-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2426/default.aspx
As the World Gold Council release their latest update on global gold ETF holdings confirming 2020 saw record inflows and all time high holdings we discuss what we see as the better alternative for those looking for an easy, secure way to own gold and silver.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-better-alternative-to-gold-etf-e2-80-99s-e2-80-93-the-new-gold-standard/tabid/88/a/2425/default.aspx
One of the more successful fund managers around is thumping the table about silver right now. We share their insightful and historically accurate predictions for why silver and gold should boom from here.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-great-rotation-e2-80-93-silver-to-boom/tabid/88/a/2424/default.aspx
We discuss the spectacular gains over the holiday period and yesterday’s correction that, whilst big in ‘normal’ terms, wasn’t what many were hoping for to buy up more. What is different this time to 2017 and where to from here?
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-e2-80-93-did-we-just-see-the-dip-/tabid/88/a/2423/default.aspx
Let us join the chorus of “what a year!”. However, in a year of personal hardship, there has been some great gains for investors in precious metals and crytpocurrencies and the response by governments and central banks around the world has set us up for a very bullish outlook for both. We reflect and look ahead.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/2020-wrap-and-2021-forecast/tabid/88/a/2420/default.aspx
Throughout its monster weekly rally, bitcoin's price set new record highs in four of the past five days, reaching the current record high of US $24,273.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-e2-80-99s-santa-rally/tabid/88/a/2419/default.aspx
We discuss how the copper to gold ratio and deficit to GDP are both signalling a further rally as gold again bounces off its 50 week moving average maintaining the bull market run that started in 2019.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/dr-copper-signals-gold-rally/tabid/88/a/2418/default.aspx
Today we think is a Must Read. Gold and silver had another solid night last night, up US$21 (1.1%) and US$0.68 (2.7%) respectively as Bitcoin smashed through $23K and the USD fell to an 80 handle for the first time since April 2018. We look at the journey for both since then and why gold presents such a clear each way bet for what looks like a looming proverbial ‘end of the road’ for this well kicked ‘can’…
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/end-of-the-road-e2-80-93-steins-law/tabid/88/a/2417/default.aspx
As we write this Bitcoin has just smashed through the all-time high, up over 10% and through US$21K as well. Silver jumped 3.2% overnight, up over $1 and gold firmed as well. What do all these have in common? They are hard assets that will thrive in a world of central bank and government currency debasing stimulus and the inevitable inflation to follow. Today we look at last night’s Fed meeting and a Fed research report that says they are looking at the wrong data for inflation and that it is coming fast.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/inflation-e2-80-93-the-e2-80-9cbig-theme-for-2021-e2-80-9d-09/tabid/88/a/2416/default.aspx
Deutsche Bank released their latest survey of fund managers with what was their biggest response yet, some 984 respondents. Despite the ‘everything’s awesome’ euphoria in markets today (another strong night on Wall St last night), COVID-19 stands as the biggest risk to fund managers, the theme taking out the top 3 positions of the survey, and the next 4 are immensely bullish for gold and silver as well. We discuss.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/what-is-worrying-wall-street-/tabid/88/a/2415/default.aspx
Bitcoin is coming to the end of one of the biggest years in its short history. The bitcoin price has surged through 2020, reclaiming its 2017 all-time highs after finding support from Wall Street and some of the world's biggest investors.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/even-more-billionaires-looking-at-bitcoin/tabid/88/a/2414/default.aspx
Jim Rickards’ latest outlook for gold looks at the reasons for the recent correction and also why and where he thinks it will go from here (spoiler alert, much higher). We know readers love him, so we summarise for a quick take and provide it in full too.
Full article:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/rickards-on-why-gold-is-ready-to-rumble/tabid/88/a/2413/default.aspx
Today we discuss the rising AUD, what is driving it, the overnight increase and extension of stimulus from the ECB and the dangerous new ‘Japanifcation’ territory that takes Euro bonds.
We have presented warning after warning of the risk of a major correction or crash in sharemarkets at near all time record valuations amid an economic environment that in no way supports that. ‘Bad is good’ via stimulus fuelled markets is sadly a reality. However the complacency surrounding this set up is borne not just of a belief the Fed and other central banks will, at best, continue to fuel and, at worst, come to the rescue, but also of a lack of appreciation of the contagion such a sharemarket crash could present.
This would have to be one of the most common questions investors have asked this last year. Shares are at record high valuations despite a recession, bonds are all sky high and for the same reason bonds aren’t yielding, you can’t get any interest on your money in a bank either. We look at where gold and silver sit in this market and how they appear to be one of the few undervalued assets to buy.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $27,111 last week. Surging interest in the digital token brought its year-to-date gain to 177%. The last record was set in December 2017 when its price reached $27,000. Having slightly pulled back in the last few days, what does the future hold for bitcoin?
Often the forgotten precious metal, the investment set up for platinum is one that is deserving of more attention. The latest quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Council outlines this bullish setup. We first step back and look what has happened in platinum, its PGM brother palladium and gold since 2013 and then summarise the bullish setup evident from the latest WPIC report.
This recession, and the journey out of it, is increasingly being referred to as a K shape as many acknowledge the V just isn’t happening for many. The K is also playing out in investors expectations as well. Normally shares and precious metals tend to be uncorrelated and indeed often negatively correlated. Last night again saw both shares and precious metals surge together though. We discuss why.
Bitcoin today must appear as something of a dilemma to the more cautious investor. Out of nowhere, it has exploded onto the scene, and in a decade has gone from strength to strength. And yet it seems so volatile as to defy any standard of valuation with which investors might feel they better understand it – they’re more often than not left wondering if it’s just a super speculative bubble. Though no doubt it has appeared to be that at times, and especially on the lengthy corrections. However, there is a rational and real trend that underlies these appearances. If we understand these, it will be able to provide a rationale by which the more cautious investor might start gaining some exposure to this asset class.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-e2-80-93-a-currency-and-asset/tabid/88/a/2404/default.aspx
Gordon Gecko declared “greed is good” and certainly at the moment blind greed is going well. We look at the sheer quantum of cash to come from ex Fed chair Yellen’s new gig as Treasury Secretary and the stash Trump never got to spend, and current Fed chair Powell’s QE program. We also look at the key difference between this gold correction and that in March.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-yellen-powell-cash-tsunami/tabid/88/a/2403/default.aspx
We are in extraordinary times right now. That is not an unusual statement to hear this year but it is now made for very different reasons. In financial terms, the word unprecedented has been oft used but almost exclusively in the negative context. Biggest recession, biggest money printing program, biggest deficits, lowest interest rates, etc have been the norm. However the times have more recently turned to some unprecedented ‘positive’ news – like Dow breaches 30,000, Wall St at all time highs, biggest GDP jump, best November on record, etc. These seem incongruous at best and outright baffling to most. Whilst yes the news is awash with vaccines and smooth US presidential transitions, these are not silver bullets to a much larger problem.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-2021-global-financial-experiment/tabid/88/a/2400/default.aspx
News headlines are heralding the new all time high reached in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last night breaching 30,000. Vaccines and a seamless transition to Biden are grabbing the “everything’s awesome” trade with gusto with nary a word around that maybe, just maybe, 30,000 was reached on the back of unprecedented amounts of monetary stimulus. We look at the fundamentals behind the stimulus momentum trade and the challenges and opportunities ahead.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cyou-can-e2-80-99t-have-your-cake-and-eat-it-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2399/default.aspx
There’s no denying that Bitcoin has been the dominant force for the latter part of 2020. Large-cap cryptocurrencies such as ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC, and LINK delivered relatively modest gains in October, but have failed to break new highs as trading activity shifted away to Bitcoin. For many months, altcoins have been the key driver of returns for crypto traders. The usual rotation of BTC to Alt-coins looks ready to go with ETH2.0 next week possibly the catalyst.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/alt-coin-market-e2-80-93-ready-for-take-off/tabid/88/a/2398/default.aspx
As gold has tracked sideways for the last few months Bitcoin has been grabbing attention since it started taking off last month with the weekend seeing it a whisker off taking its December 2017 all-time high of US$20,000, sitting at US$18,500 at the time of writing. Since hitting its all time high of US$2060 in August this year, gold has come off slightly and held strong above $1850 since. But reports from 2 of the biggest banks in the US warn that both may well be the place to be as we change for “uber Goldilocks” to “Hedging Goldilocks”…
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/big-gold-outflows-big-bitcoin-gains-e2-80-93-e2-80-9chedging-goldilocks-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2397/default.aspx
Findings from the IIF (Institute of International Finance) and a warning from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) bring the hope trade off the back of vaccines starkly into contrast as the world sinks under debt.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/vaccines-don-e2-80-99t-cure-debt/tabid/88/a/2396/default.aspx
Today we talk to the epic setup for the silver market and at the end compare that to its ‘crypto cousin’ Ethereum which too looks poised for great things.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-poised-to-surge-e2-80-93-and-so-too-ethereum/tabid/88/a/2395/default.aspx
Equities markets are often driven more by emotion than fact or fundamentals. 2 nights ago we saw Wall St surge on another positive vaccine announcement and then last night fall back. Nothing much changed so did the market just momentarily pause and look more pragmatically at fundamentals not hope? Only a little… it is now in Extreme Greed mode but the smart money is not buying it.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/smart-money-is-taking-cover/tabid/88/a/2394/default.aspx
As we head into the end of the year, the crypto market cycle has shifted back towards BTC with the favourable macro backdrop. The election's end - and perhaps its reminder of the fragility of political governance - has reinforced the value of Bitcoin.
Read full article.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/bitcoin-ethereum-foundations-strengthening/tabid/88/a/2393/default.aspx
Until China embarked on its massive gold buy up from 2013, India was the world’s biggest consumer of gold. A country of 1.4 billion people who all aspire to gold ownership will always be a big force in the gold market regardless. Today we look further into this and the burgeoning gold loan market.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/indian-demand-for-gold-and-gold-loans/tabid/88/a/2392/default.aspx
Wall St took a dive last night whilst gold firmed as the market digested the new reality that there will be no fiscal stimulus before January whilst the 2nd COVID wave sweeps the nation and the Pfizer vaccine, if passing all tests, will be unavailable much longer than the euphoria earlier in the week was pricing in. Our AUD dropped which turbo charged gold and silver gains locally. We discuss.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/us-stimulus-vaccine-delays-e2-80-93-is-it-too-late-/tabid/88/a/2391/default.aspx
“The Great Reset” agenda of the World Economic Forum is one not widely known about and certainly not one getting much cut through in the mainstream in Australia. That changed just a little yesterday when Pauline Hanson put forward a motion in the senate for Australia to actively not pursue this agenda. It was defeated.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/wef-e2-80-99s-e2-80-9cthe-great-reset-e2-80-9d-ok-by-senate/tabid/88/a/2390/default.aspx
Bitcoin has leapt back into the limelight after taking a backseat to the DeFi craze. Initially, it looked that this was just another intermarket move driven by the reallocation of capital from big winners back to BTC, but something seems different this time and it appears the landscape is shifting beneath our feet.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-best-investment-of-the-year/tabid/88/a/2389/default.aspx
News flash… Everything is awesome! News of Pfizer’s vaccine saw the S&P500, Dow and small cap Russell 2000 all hit all-time highs last night whilst Gold was down around 4.7%, silver just over 6% whilst Bitcoin held strong. Today we zoom back from the soundbite and put this all in to perspective.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/perspective-is-everything/tabid/88/a/2388/default.aspx
Markets were steady at the close on Friday and gold, silver and bitcoin all up. Investors are grappling with what looks like a Biden presidency, Democrat house and Republican senate. Today we look past this immediate ‘noise’ and at some fundamentals that should be a warning to all investors.
Full article to read:
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/3-charts-every-investor-should-heed-/tabid/88/a/2387/default.aspx
Maybe one of the safer bets today outside the Cup is the RBA lowering interest rates and commencing Quantitative Easing. This move puts us into territory never before seen in this country.
Enjoy today's news.
You may or may not be aware of a little election taking place tomorrow. The last saw a wild whipsawing of markets including gold. Whilst that was a ‘shock’ win, with the majority now believing Biden will win this time, there is a very real risk of Trump bringing home another shock win. That means the market has likely priced in one scenario when another is very possible. There is also the issue of a protracted legal battle and/or broadscale civil unrest and further social dislocation. This election, maybe more than the last, could see heightened volatility in markets as the news unfolds. We discuss the implications including what each potential administration may mean for gold.
View charts and article, shop bullion: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/buy-the-dip-buy-real/tabid/88/a/2380/default.aspx
Last night was a repeat of what we have seen before when markets panic, volatility spikes, shares crash, margin calls occur and everyone liquidates EVERYTHING. Wall Street fell 3.5% across all indices last night, silver was down 6% (3.5% in AUD), gold 2% (0.6% in AUD) and Bitcoin 3%. The only thing with green was of course the USD as everyone went to cash. That pushed our AUD down to 70.4c and cushioned the bullion blow. Whilst gold, silver and Bitcoin are clearly in secular bull markets, we are reminded that they are called bulls and not caterpillars for a reason… they buck. It was timely therefore to come across a very recent interview with the legendary Kiril Sokoloff, founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research who talks to why gold is his key investment, why buy physical and why dips like last night are expected and should be bough.
Last week Raoul Pal of Macro Insider released a deep dive further explaining why he is “irresponsibly long” Bitcoin. Pal, an ex Wall St fund manager and respected voice not only in the Bitcoin space, completed the trade of the decade when he called the bond rally before it started on similar macro grounds. He has more recently been vocal in his rotation from bonds to gold and bitcoin based on this unprecedented macro setup we find ourselves in.
In his report he highlights key fundamentals:
- The slow build
- Immutability
- When macro and crypto collide
- Priceless reserve asset
- Bitcoin being pristine
- A yield curve
Pal also debunks a lot of the primary criticisms of bitcoin and the technology supporting the crypto movement.
Pal has a lot to say about crypto and bitcoin and it’s all well thought out and backed up. Read on to get some insight into why he believes bitcoin to be “The World’s Best Trade”:
View article, shop bullion:
The World’s Biggest Trade
More from Ainslie. . .
https://goldsilverstandard.com/
https://ainsliewealth.com.au/
Recently the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, delivered a speech that pricked the ears of those actually listening titled “A New Bretton Woods Moment”. That this was delivered nearly 50 years after Nixon ended the gold peg of the Bretton Woods agreement has not been lost on some. Today we share insights into what happened before Bretton Woods and how that may be instructive on ‘where to from here?’.
View article, shop bullion:
IMF & WEF Call For Global Reset - “A New Bretton Woods Moment”
More from Ainslie. . .
https://goldsilverstandard.com/
https://ainsliewealth.com.au/
Today we discuss the reasons for the stubbornly high AUD, why that looks about to change, how the RBA just jumped to second biggest ‘printer’ in the developed world, how they have justified it, and how it hasn’t even really started yet…
View article and chart, shop bullion:
Australia Joins Money Printing Party with a Bang
Fiat currency as we know it is under attack. We wrote to the advent of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC’s) recently here including the opportunities but also some of the threats they present. Last night we saw the announcement by the world’s biggest payment provider, PayPal that they will now facilitate cryptocurrency transactions. We discuss the implications of both on precious metals and cryptocurrencies alike.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
PayPal & CBDC’s – Listen Carefully
John Hathaway needs little introduction to long term gold participants. He is a highly regarded analyst who until this year penned excellent analysis of gold markets for Tocqueville Asset Management. He is now with Sprott Asset Management and recently penned “Gold, The Simple Math”. We share some key excerpts from this excellent summary of the compelling reason to be buying gold right now.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
“Gold, The Simple Math” - Hathaway
Raoul Pal, the former Goldman Sachs hedge-fund manager who founded Real Vision, and a personal favourite of ours, believes the price of Bitcoin will hit $US1 million in five years. We discuss his and other learned views about where this digital store of value is headed and why.
Today we simply share 2 charts that tell the very simple and compelling story that is the gold investment case. Cut through all the noise and economic rationalisations amid this pandemic and Blind Freddy should be able to do the math on this.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
2 Charts That Can’t Be Ignored
Part of the dilemma for many investors right now is ‘where is safe to put my money’. Whilst some may be feeling like gold and silver are ‘getting up there’ after the rally this year, the reality is when measured against the biggest ‘other choice’, they are only just coming off an historical bottom. We present and discuss.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
Precious Metal & Bitcoin Bulls Just Beginning
Earlier this week we shared that excellent infographic part of which showed that silver use in photovoltaics accounts for around 10% of total silver demand. Demand and indeed investment in the PV sector is getting stronger on the back of the likes of the EU green targeted stimulus and the growing prospect of Biden winning the presidency and his clearly articulated green energy agenda. Today we look more closely at the huge inflows into the space and what that means for silver.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
Solar Demand for Silver Surges
The World Gold Council have just released their latest update for gold inflows to ETF’s for September which are remarkable in the context of the price falls we have seen over that period but also another new record. We also discuss Gold & Silver Standard as a better alternative to ETFs.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
Another New 2020 Record – Over 1000 Tonne Into ETFs
For years Australia has been ranked 1 or 2 in the world’s most indebted households. Conversely our government debt has been one of the lowest. 2020 would mark the year that household debt eased and government debt exploded however changes to lending laws and yet more stimulus for new housing (together with a record deficit funded rescue package) might see both end the year on a ‘high’.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
Australia Doubling Down on Debt
A lot of crypto investors like to think of bitcoin as a bet on higher inflation, or as a futuristic hedge against a worst-case scenario – standing next to gold.
View chart and article, shop bullion:
Bitcoin – The Best Macro Asset of 2020
View article and charts, shop bullion: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cmonstrous-e2-80-9d-numbers-portend-global-unwinding/tabid/88/a/2359/default.aspx
Doug Noland has been mapping this credit super-cycle in his weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin for 20 years. When he says the latest data from the US Fed is the “most troubling data I’ve encountered in my 20 years” we feel compelled to share. This very much feels like the death throes of the debt super cycle Dalio wrote of earlier this year.
The building pressure on governments to unleash fiscal spending in the face of not just the deflationary effects of the pandemic but also of technology, demographics and debt is enormous. Amid all the talk of inflation now, this is missing the seemingly unavoidable deflationary period that precedes, and indeed the reaction to which, causes it. We discuss these forces and where it all leads.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
Deflation to Inflation & Gold
A CBDC is a Central Bank Digital Currency. It is a digital form of fiat currency which the government or central bank has established. The Bank of England, for example, has referred to CBDC’s as a “digital banknote” instead of a psychical banknote. We look at the mechanics and implications of what looks certain to be our future.
News is filtering through that the Fed may have stepped back from the plate and markets got very jittery last week. Today we share the latest excellent insights from Crescat, whose investment insight just saw them get make the top of Bloomberg’s hedge fund monthly performance table for the third straight month and the fourth month this year. i.e. they are worth listing too. They believe we are still in the early days of a secular bull market in gold and silver and this correction is an ideal dip buying opportunity.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
6 Forces to “Propel” Gold & Silver
Today we present and discuss a series of charts from Roy Morgan Research presenting the economic impacts on Australia since the pandemic. First we discuss last night’s market action and why CitiBank believe gold is about to explode higher and such dips as now are buying opportunities.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
Australia’s 2020 Economic Journey in Charts
Nearly 2 years after we first reported it here, JP Morgan finally look set to pay for the manipulation of precious metals markets for their benefit with a $1b fine. We discuss and talk to the big drops in gold and silver these last few days.
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$1b Fine for JP Morgan Manipulation of Precious Metals
In a world where news often comes in small byte headlines one could be deceived into thinking things are better than they are without a little critical thought or at least a deeper dive in to the story. Case in point “US Household Wealth Hits Record High” that we saw yesterday. Talk about a V shaped recovery! But…
View article and charts, shop bullion:
The Truth Behind “Highest Household Wealth”
As banks struggle in the post-COVID world, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have seen a pandemic-led acceleration of adoption, which experts expect to snowball in size as we continue through the current state of the economy.
View article, shop bullion:
COVID – Killing Banks, Boosting Bitcoin
Forecasts are that Australia will not see a recovery in jobs or GDP until 2023, and that relies on a continuation of near zero interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Last night the US Fed projected zero rates and stimulus for a similar period. We discuss the latest research and the unknown road ahead.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
No Recovery Until 2023
After this recent Wall St correction the futures markets are telling us the herd are now bullish again with short interest on the NYSE falling sharply. We discuss the risks inherent in this next leg and the math everyone should be doing.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
Math, Risk and Return of Capital
Gold & Silver Standard from Ainslie
Decentralised finance, or DeFi, aims to give users an alternative by removing the need to trust centralised parties and traditional financial institutions by opening its doors to the world. This is achieved by building digital services in an open, permissionless, and decentralised manner. We compare the old and new worlds.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
DeFi – Undoubtedly the Future
Bank of America just spoke to all time high fragility in markets before last week’s sharemarket corrections, particularly the tech heavy NASDAQ. We talk to this and the ‘concentration within the concentration’ that should have investors looking for some financial bubble wrap amid such fragility.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
“All Time High Fragility” – Handle with Care
More heavy losses on Wall Street last night signal we could well be in the terminal throes of the “Hope Phase”. We discuss what follows, how it compares to the last recession of this magnitude, The Great Depression, what happened then and what is likely to happen now.
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Insolvency Phase – Now v Great Depression – How This Ends
When asked why gold and silver have intrinsic value the answer is ultimately about how rare it is and the fact that it can’t simply be expanded at whim like Fiat currency can, and currently is being expanded. Today we look silver supply, how much is ‘lost’ and why that could be good news.
View Article & Charts, Shop Bullion:
Lost Silver – Why that’s good!
Last night saw the US share market fall sharply with the NASDAQ down 6% at one stage before finishing down nearly 5%. The S&P500 was down 3.5% and Dow down 2.8%. In USD gold was down 0.6% and silver 3.5%, only the falling AUD saw that change to +0.3% and -2.2% respectively. Cryptos were clubbed across the board including BTC below $US10,500 and ETH back below US$400 at one stage. And against the whole ‘USD is dead’ crowded trade, it maintained its upward trajectory from its low on Monday. We outline the case for a strong USD and what that means for markets and gold.
View article and charts, shop bullion:
USD to Rise or Fall? The Debate Rages, Gold Wins
Yesterday Australia plunged to its worst GDP fall on record and officially entering its first recession in 29 years. Nothing speaks to the insanity of markets more than the fact that Aussie shares rallied solidly. Overnight the US sharemarket hit an important historic milestone. We discuss both and why the 2 are bedfellows.
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US Stocks Have COVID & Our Immunity is in Recession
Bitcoin traders have found fresh confidence in bitcoin's prospects this year, with several high-profile investors and some of the biggest Wall Street giants giving bitcoin their backing - all the result of a maturing market.
The bitcoin price, up around 30% on the last six months, has been identified as a potential hedge against inflation by experts, similar to gold—and the Winklevoss twins, who founded of the New York-based Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, use bitcoin's similarities to gold to give it a value of $500,000 per bitcoin, up 45-fold from today.
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Crypto Market Data Supports Bull Trend
Emotion and investment are very hard to separate and yet they should have no common ground in the quest for preserving and growing your wealth. The best investors are those who can stick to a well considered plan, adjusting on changes in fundamentals not on FOMO (fear of missing out) or TTID (this time is different). An alternative is simply not to try and understand the ‘best timing’ but to average your way in on regular set times irrespective of what is happening in the market. We discuss DCA and share some exciting news on the perfect platform to do it on.
View article and charts, shop bullion / coin at Ainslie:
Dollar Cost Averaging & Bamboo
Any talk of gold having had its run looks to be missing the fact that the fundamental drivers for its rally are still firmly in play and in most cases increasing. Crescat Capital have just released their latest investor update titled “A New Bull Market for Precious Metals”. They are forthrightly now saying sell ‘richly valued’ shares and buy ‘undervalued’ gold and silver giving 14 compelling reasons why.
View charts and article, shop bullion and coin:
New Bull Market for Precious Metals – Crescat Capital
James (Jim) Rickards needs little introduction. His latest piece for The Daily Reckoning is an excellent ‘bigger picture’ look at gold and particularly after last night’s Fed announcement which was almost exactly what we reported yesterday.
View article, shop bullion on Ainslie:
Central Banks Driving Gold – Rickards
Few are looking at the current sharemarket and saying ‘that makes sense’. However that is not stopping people buying in at these levels purely on a thesis of momentum and central bank support. The herd is alive and well and playing the casino that is current markets somehow thinking the house has their back. We look at the fundamentals of central bank stimulus and valuations.
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FOMO v Valuation Reality in the Casino
Last week the S&P500 broke not just a new all-time high but also the record for the quickest recovery from a ‘technical’ bear market, doing so in just 110 days. We put technical in inverted commas for a good reason and discuss today why March was just a correction, not the overdue ‘big one’.
View article and charts, shop bullion:March Was Just a Correction – Why We Haven’t Seen the Crash Yet
Gold and Silver Standard
Ainslie Wealth is excited to announce a new crypto offering – Chainlink (LINK). Chainlink is the hottest coin in the crypto space at the moment. Since the start of the year, LINK has been on fire, gaining over 800% and rocketing its way into the top 5 largest cryptocurrencies (by market cap). So, what is Chainlink and what is the hype all about?
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Chainlink Up 800% & Now Available at Ainslie
Shop Crypto:
LINK on Ainslie Wealth
Last night the Fed released the minutes of its last meeting and the market reaction was harsh. Basically everything sold off barring the USD. Gold and silver were the worst hit, down 3.2% and 4.2% respectively. So what did they say to cause this reaction?
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/we-want-moar-e2-80-93-fed-spoils-party/tabid/88/a/2328/default.aspx
Last night the S&P500 made a new record high, the shortest bear market in history and all whilst we are still in a recession, and a recession that may prove to be the worst ever. US Corporate debt issuance broke a new record with much of that buying back shares. Those 2 sentences are not mutually exclusive…. We discuss.
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Record US Corporate Debt & Buybacks
Arguably the two biggest names on Wall Street, Warren Buffet and Ray Dalio, were both revealed to have taken up very substantial gold positions in the funds they control in Q2 of this year. We outline why this is such big news.
View source article, shop bullion and coins:
Wall Street Titans Turn to Gold
Last night saw mass liquidations across nearly all assets except the USD, and even then it barely moved rather than rally. However none got hit as hard as silver which saw nearly 15% falls, the biggest daily drop since the GFC. Both gold and Bitcoin were also off heavily, each by around 5%. We discuss why and also why the bigger picture hasn’t changed with one ‘smartest guys in the room’ buying $250m of Bitcoin.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
Silver & Gold Smashed And Why it Doesn’t Matter
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/crypto-gains-to-continue/tabid/88/a/2322/default.aspx
Cryptocurrency markets have been fluctuating quite a bit lately, as bitcoin and several crypto assets have been testing new resistance levels. The market valuation of the entire crypto-economy is hovering around $360 billion as a decent portion of the top twenty digital assets have gained 1-15% in the last 24 hours.
Trump fires up the helicopter, Fed happy to let inflation ‘go’, inflation expectations on the rise, valuations at historic highs, and complacency abounds. We discuss this incredible set up for gold and silver.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
The Complacency Cocktail
The nexus between gold & Bitcoin and silver & Ethereum has often been discussed. Tribalists will argue never the 2 or even 4 be discussed in the same breath but the parallels are there and the price performance this year mirrors this too. Gold and Bitcoin are going strong, but silver and Ethereum are going even stronger given their dual purpose. We discuss.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
Gold & Silver v Bitcoin & Ethereum
Bitcoin has come to life this week after months of stagnation, jumping over 20% in just the past 2 weeks. The bitcoin price had been trading sideways since its supply squeeze in early May but this week leapt past the psychological $10,000 US level, soaring to over $11,000 per bitcoin.
View chart and article, shop bullion:Investors Flocking To BTC As Inflation Hedge
The USD had a positive close on Friday night after the DXY hitting 92.5. From its peak of 103 on 19 March (when gold and silver got smacked) the mighty US dollar has been on a steady decline whilst gold and more recently silver have rallied. We look at the reasons both micro but also very interestingly the historic macro picture and where this might go.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
USD Fall & “The Structural Shift”
View source articles mentioned:
Equities and Bonds Markets Compared to Gold and Silver
Rise and fall of Empires
Long Term Debt Cycles
You can sense the growing realisation in Australia that a V shaped recovery is simply not on the cards as many people started to believe when ‘everything was awesome’ again after that initial lockdown. Our packed waiting room every day is a good anecdotal indicator.
Today we discuss the record GDP slump in the US and Macquarie’s huge call yesterday of a 15-30% crash in Aussie property.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
Property Crash Predicted
Sometimes you just need a quick reminder of one of the key fundamentals rarely spoken about in terms of gold, silver and bitcoin’s potential in an environment such as this. We look at the Economics 101 setup right now.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/silver-e2-80-9cthe-cheapest-metal-on-earth-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2314/default.aspx
Despite gold hitting an all-time high yesterday, the world’s pre-eminent investment bank, Goldman Sachs, has just again upped their price forecast for both gold and silver “the currency of last resort”, stating "with more downside expected in US real interest rates we are once again reiterating our long gold recommendation from March and are raising our 12-month gold and silver price forecasts to $2300/oz and $30/oz respectively from $2000/oz and $22/oz."
It all comes down to debasement and inflation as we present their case.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
Goldman Sachs Raise Gold & Silver Forecast for “the currency of last resort”
Last month COMEX, the largest gold futures exchange in the world, saw an all-time record 5.5m oz or 170 tonne of gold physically delivered when the ‘norm’ is around just 100-500oz. Silver deposited into depositories, ETFs and funds just hit another new all time weekly record. Demand is exploding at a time that COVID-19 is restricting supply. We discuss why and present an info graphic on how this all works amid COVID-10 restrictions.
View today's charts and article, shop bullion:
RECORD DELIVERY. SUPPLY-DEMAND COLLISION
Support articles referenced in this podcast:
GLOBAL RACE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD UNCOUPLES FROM PAPER
FOOLS GOLD
Pictures paint a thousand words so today we succinctly present 7 charts laying out the value proposition for both gold and silver right now.
View charts and article, shop bullion:
7 Must See Charts for Gold & Silver
After another very strong night in the northern hemisphere last night gold, at US$1872 is just $30 off its all time high of US$1900 whilst silver smashed through $23 to a 7 year high but still less than half its US$48 high in 2011 and the GSR sits at 81. In Aussie terms gold is back above $2600 and now $120 off the $2745 all-time high in March this year and silver at $32.40 is more than $10 off its 2011 high. We discuss what is driving this surge now.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-are-gold-and-silver-surging-/tabid/88/a/2309/default.aspx
You may at first be a little confused this morning. The news is spruiking gold shooting higher last night and of course silver like a rocket, up $23.70 (1.3%) to $1843 and $1.43 (7.2%!) to $21.32 respectively. However in AUD gold is this morning down $9 or 0.35% and silver up $1.55 or 5.5% respectively. You can say thanks to the EU and our RBA respectively that you get to buy at comparatively suppressed prices before the inevitable fall.
We discuss and look at other drivers behind this metal rally. Spoiler alert, by the end of the article silver jumped nearly 5% higher again!
View full article and charts, shop bullion:
Silver Explodes, Gold Surges, AUD Puts “For Sale” Sign Up
Another week and another massive inflow of silver into ETF’s, some 19,230,000 oz or nearly 600 tonne in just one week. We also reveal Perth Mint’s latest figures, the bigger picture behind them, and discuss the premiums right now.
View article and charts, shop bullion and coins:
Silver Demand Continues to Surge
Few people in the Australian finance industry are respected more than Hamish Doulass, founder and chairman of Magellan Financial Group with nearly $100 billion of funds under management, and their listed entity in the top 40 of the ASX200. In an insightful and honest investor letter he addresses the economic “known unknowns” abounding today and how their funds are handling them.
View this article or shop bullion:
Magellan Warns of “Known Unknowns”
Love them or loath them, you wouldn’t want to be a bank right now. Stuck between a rock and a hard place they have balance sheets asymmetrically exposed to Aussie property prices at a time when the majority of property analysts are forecasting sizeable price declines, unemployment is over 13% and the country’s central bank, the RBA just described the current situation as "the biggest contraction since the 1930s". We discuss their bad loan provisioning after shocking data from the US last night.
View source article and charts on Ainslie:
No Longer “Safe as a Bank” – When The Safety Net Is Removed
Samsung, the South Korean smartphone giant that has been experimenting with bitcoin for some time, is doubling down on cryptocurrency.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/the-blockchain-phone-era/tabid/88/a/2302/default.aspx
Today’s article is a must read. We don’t say that often. We look at the current set up for silver that looks very much like that of 1979 and 2008 from which it launched ahead of gold with 400-800% gains. Whilst gold bottomed in late 2015, it is now looking like silver’s 9 year bear market ended in March. We first share the Silver Institute’s first half yearly interim report on demand and supply as well.
Full article and charts: Silver’s Next Bull Market Appears In
If we all had hindsight beforehand we’d be incredibly rich. The saying that no one rings a bell at the top of the market is an oft repeated one after the top has passed and to be frank, most aren’t even listening at the top regardless. There is always a self-reinforcing narrative to say this time is different. Today we take lessons of hindsight from the last bubble of this magnitude, the dot.com bubble and seek guidance from the economic oracle of truth…
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/-e2-80-9cwhat-was-i-thinking-e2-80-9d-hindsight-v-reading-the-e2-80-9ctruth-e2-80-9d/tabid/88/a/2300/default.aspx
About a year ago, Facebook announced it would create a global digital currency called "Libra" to help the billions of people around the world who lacked access to basic financial services. We revisit its progress and why the promise has failed.
Read the source article here:
Libra's Underwhelming Progress
Last week saw an important new record for silver investment. Last week saw the highest ever inflows of silver into depositories holding metal for ETF’s and mutual funds etc. No less than 32,668,000oz of silver was deposited to back up these paper promises. However we look behind the demand headline at the equally alluring supply side of the equation.
View charts and the full article here:
Record Silver Inflows Tell only Part of the Story
When we talk about bull markets and bear markets we often get swept up in the present without stepping back and looking at the bigger picture. In this sense we tend to look at cyclical market trends as opposed to secular, derived from the Latin word for long term.
Today we present some fascinating charts from 1871, where we may be sitting right now, and where this possibly ends.
Link to full Article with Charts / Graphs:
Secular Bear Market - Is this the start? Recession or Depression?
Much has been written about the trading platform Robinhood and its users, with some even calling this sharemarket rally the Robinhood Rally. We discuss the platform, its users, and why it could well be a large catalyst fuelling the gold, silver and bitcoin rallies.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-robinhood-could-fuel-the-next-gold-and-crypto-rally/tabid/88/a/2294/default.aspx
And so ends another financial year. Likely one we will never forget and unfortunately FY21 is looking to be equally eventful. We review the stats...
Link to full article and charts
Fintech titan PayPal intends to roll out direct trades of cryptocurrency to its 325 million users as institutional FOMO sets in.
Currently, PayPal’s only involvement in the crypto ecosystem is that it can be used as an alternative means for withdrawing funds from exchanges such as Coinbase, one of the world’s largest, but this would be a first in terms of offering direct sales of crypto.
View source article here
The world just passed 2 bleak milestones in this pandemic, passing 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths. The feeling of this being ‘over’ is quickly passing as even domestically the surge in cases in Victoria highlight the dangers of relaxing. Today we look at the ‘no shutdown’ response of Sweden and Brazil and the implications of the coming US election.
View Full Article and Charts >
Changing it up today we are passing on a well spelt out argument for record high gold in the second half of this year. Eddie van der Walt is editor and commentator at Bloomberg for global financial markets with his focus on commodities. He just wrote an article laying out the case for $2000 gold before year end. You can find the charts in the article here
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/why-gold-will-hit-242000-by-year-end/tabid/88/a/2290/default.aspx
Unless you’ve been under a rock lately you may have gleaned that the US sharemarket surge has been reputedly based on the Fed’s stimulus rather than fundamentals. Last week the Fed quietly reduced its balance sheet for the first time since their unprecedented response to the pandemic. However they appear to be angling toward consumption supporting companies and not asset inflating banks. Goldman Sachs have significantly increased their gold and silver forecasts and the 2 moves appear related. We discuss.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/goldman-e2-80-99s-up-gold-silver-forecast-as-fed-quietly-eases/tabid/88/a/2286/default.aspx
It’s Friday, and whilst not the 13th, we are now at an even scarier 13 weeks from Australia’s so called ‘economic cliff’ when a host of emergency measures put in place by the government come to an end. Yesterday’s employment figures for May, the worst since 2001, were a stark reminder we are far from out of the woods, just 13 weeks before the safety net is removed. We discuss the implications.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/australia-e2-80-99s-property-e2-80-9ctime-bomb-e2-80-9d-at-the-cliff/tabid/88/a/2285/default.aspx
Silver demand has been so extreme and supply so slow that since the pandemic took hold of markets we have seen refiners, mints and bullion dealers around the world unable to keep up to demand. Even now Ainslie is one of the few bullion dealers in Australia able to supply all lines immediately with most others taking pre orders. So what’s going on? We discuss.
As the Fed desperately ups the ante with buying corporate bonds and ETF’s and last night admitted it has no plans to unwind its balance sheet, we look at the implications as we hurdle toward Zombification as we are seeing in now nearly 20% of US companies….
Link to article: https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/gold-silver-bullion-news/fed-zombification/tabid/88/a/2283/default.aspx
Last night Crypto.com released a research report into the state of adoption for the crypto market. Here are some of the findings, giving expert insight into the progression of the market into mass adoption.
After Wall Street bounced up off those support levels we discussed Friday, we talk to the new phenomenon of young “Robinhood” traders playing the “Fed’s got this” and “shares will catch up to a V Shaped Recovery” casino. Courtesy of Lance Roberts we explain how history says economies rarely ‘catch up’ to shares, rather over inflated shares catch down to economies.
It was a mixed bag on markets last night as we had the Fed meeting and sobering warning from the OECD. Gold was up again by 1.4% and silver up 3.3% (0.9% and 2.7% in AUD terms) whilst the S&P500 and Dow fell but the every bubbly NASDAQ up yet again. The USD continued its extraordinary streak of declines. We detail out and include an excerpt from 2 legends discussing gold’s role as the go-to investment.
Tonight the Fed meet for the monthly FOMC meeting. Amid shares surging despite QE quietly unwinding, the underlying economic picture is still terrible. So what can we expect tonight? They’ve previously hinted at YCC and we discuss.
Bitcoin bulls are currently out in force, talking up the cryptocurrency amid unprecedented central bank stimulus and quantitative easing.
Inflows of gold into ETF’s broke another record in May as investors continue to flood into gold. The World Gold Council just released their ETF Monthly figures plus we look more broadly at all transparent holdings and a possible signal from Ainslie’s own customers.
Today we discuss last night’s market action, warnings from BMO, US employment, the ECB doubling their QE and share a quote from now Fed chief Jerome Powell from 2012 foretelling exactly what is playing out now with an ominous warning.
America is burning, in deep recession, sabre rattling with China escalates, 40m unemployed, earnings falling and yet US shares continue to rise. Whilst the answer from many is ‘don’t fight the Fed’, play the casino, it fundamentally makes no sense. Unless of course you look at Pavlov’s Theory. We look at where we’re at and how we got there.
The Aussie dollar this morning nudged 69c for the first time since January this year from where it plunged to a 57c handle in March. At that time everything and everyone piled into the USD and Australia was thought to fair comparatively badly from the virus given our AUD is a proxy for commodities and China. So why are we back up here and will it last?
JPMorgan's turbulent relationship with bitcoin appears to be rapidly softening after the bank added its first crypto exchange customers and Dimon reportedly hosted secret meetings with the boss of major bitcoin and crypto exchange, Coinbase.
As humans we can become desensitised to extraordinary events when we get used to bad before it goes to worse. Part of the process is not stopping and taking stock of what these incredible numbers that quantify ‘bad’ actually look like in context. Today we discuss and share the latest excellent info graphic courtesy of Visual Capitalist.
The eagerly anticipated annual “In Gold We Trust Report” by Incrementum is arguably the most widely respected publication relating to gold. This mammoth piece, 93 pages in the compact version or 356 pages in the extended version is certainly worth the read over the weekend if you have the time (links provided). Today however we will just present the Introduction as today’s article. Enjoy.
The race to inflate took a giant leap forward in the last couple of days with the European Union and Japan announcing massive monetary stimulus programs in the face of the worst recession in memory. It was less than a week ago that we saw the Bank of America release a report quantifying the global central bank monetisation at nearly $2.4 billion every hour for the last 2 months. This takes that to a whole new level.
DeFi – short for Decentralised Finance - is one of the hottest topics in the crypto space. Let’s take a closer look at what DeFi is and how it works.
Real Vision’s Raoul Pal every now and then drops a Twitter thread that can capture so much in so little and we feel compelled to share. He outlines his USD playbook, how that is a win either way for gold and bitcoin and we look at his call that June could well be the end of the Hope phase.
Today we walk you through the incredible amount of ‘money’ created in the US in just a couple of months compared to gold and silver. Interestingly we go beyond the digitally created money and look too at US dollar bills compared to annual production. These are a fascinating and enlightening set of charts.
Carrying on from Wednesday’s discussion on how we get out of all this debt, today we continue with a different take on the default option, the latest on the economic setup supporting that, and how that plays out.
A large tailwind for gold, silver and bitcoin at the moment is the massive amount of debt being added to the massive amount of debt added since the GFC which was caused by a massive amount of debt. Spoiler alert, today we are going to talk a bit about debt. We look at the 3 traditional tools to reduce it, UBS’s view that strong inflation is not one of them, and where gold silver and bitcoin fit in the equation.
This week we look further into our most recent trade for our Ethereum Price in AUD, which is currently outperforming the market by over 57%. We also investigate the reasons for the Aussie Dollar’s decline over the last few weeks and why the AI has recently changed to recommend buying.
Visit ai.ainsliewealth.com.au for more information and to subscribe to our signals.
This week we discuss the AI’s performance in the Bitcoin and XRP pairs and how Facebook’s proposed Libra currency is playing a significant role in the movements of the crypto market as a whole. We also touch on trading our traditional pairs vs trading our crypto pairs.
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Watch this week's analysis of our trading signal pairs.
The AUD/USD pair continues its great run, our Crude Oil/USD pair is now sitting at a 53.6% return since inception.
Also see insight into how our trading signals are best implemented.
Sign up for your 2 week money back guarantee.
https://ai.ainsliewealth.com.au
Our EUR/USD pair enjoys a 6% gain, Silver Signals continue to perform and our Best performing signal ETH/USD continues to wow. Watch today's AI signals update and subscribe to see our regular weekly updates. Subscribe to our AI signals and outperform the market - https://ai.ainsliewealth.com.au
Signals for precious metals, crypto, currencies and commodities.
Our EUR and USD pair prediction performs well, and our Silver/AUD pair picks a small downwards cycle perfectly. Watch today's recap on the week that's been in our AI trading.
Learn more about Ainslie Intelligence - visit our website ai.ainsliewealth.com.au
AUD gains, BTC bounces around and Gold holds around its key resistance points. Enjoy the week's analysis of our Ainslie Intelligence trading signal software. Subscribe and receive daily trading signals - ai.ainsliewealth.com.au
ETH enjoys huge gains. BTC continues upwards after breaking through the 10,000USD resistance. Gold and Silver continue their upwards trend and we discuss the Gold and Silver Standard, a new way to purchase real gold and silver, while giving you access to the crypto economy at the same time.
Learn more at https://ai.ainsliewealth.com.au
Ainslie Intelligence this week analyses recent rebounds in the cryptocurrency market and the success we had in predicting these trades.
Last week was the most successful since the beginning of 2019 for cryptos with the aggregate market cap of the digital assets increasing by 24%.
The AI was able to capitalise on these large movements on the majority of our crypto trading pairs and is evaluating strategies to lock in gains, or enter new positions on pairs that missed the surge.
Although Bitcoin was the first to move, other cryptocurrencies took up the momentum forming their unique recovery paths. We saw ETHUSD increase by 22%, XRP by 17%, among similar gains from other cryptos.
BTC/USD near-term price action is well supported by an ascending trend line. The big psychological target of $5000 USD is likely to act as the new bottom.
Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Our AI continues to perform. Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. You can join the AI trading revolution and enjoy 2 weeks for free through ai.ainsliewealth.com.au No credit card required, just 2 weeks to see how we do things. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Our AI continues to perform. Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. You can join the AI trading revolution and enjoy 2 weeks for free through ai.ainsliewealth.com.au No credit card required, just 2 weeks to see how we do things. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Our AI continues to perform. Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. You can join the AI trading revolution and enjoy 2 weeks for free through ai.ainsliewealth.com.au No credit card required, just 2 weeks to see how we do things. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Our AI continues to perform. Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. You can join the AI trading revolution and enjoy 2 weeks for free through ai.ainsliewealth.com.au No credit card required, just 2 weeks to see how we do things. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Our AI continues to perform. Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators. You can join the AI trading revolution and enjoy 2 weeks for free through ai.ainsliewealth.com.au No credit card required, just 2 weeks to see how we do things. Also follow our YouTube channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation. Happy (and safe) Trading!
Today Ainslie is proud to launch an exciting new way to invest in gold and silver. Gold Standard and Silver Standard are fully backed gold and silver tokens available right now for sale. These tokens seamlessly and securely combine real physical gold and silver bullion with blockchain technology and convenience.
Our AI continues to perform. Check out this weeks review of our performance indicators.
You can join the AI trading revolution and enjoy 2 weeks for free through ai.ainsliewealth.com.au
No credit card required, just 2 weeks to see how we do things.
Also follow our Anchor channel to keep up with our AI, our gold, silver and crypto news and innovation.
Happy (and safe) Trading!
The best performing trade of the week has been the gold to silver ratio. The AI entered a near perfect buy position on the 8th of January.
As of the 20th, that position is up 1.6%. If you were to place a buy on the GSR in mid-April 2018, you would be up 3%. However, if you were to trade our signals, you would have gained approximately 6%. Thatís double the performance of the market.
Weekly podcast, showing the results and discussion around our trading signal software. You can subscribe at ainsliewealth.com.au/ai