Overwatch: Recent Episodes
Institute for the Study of War
Overwatch, an Institute for the Study of War podcast, goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.
Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical Threats Project Director Frederick W. Kagan and Retired Army General James Dubik discuss the feasibility of the Russian plan and its likely goals. They also discuss the challenges and benefits that come with undertaking this reform and expansion while the Russian military is actively engaged in a costly war with Ukraine. Dubik and Kagan assess the Russian plan by comparing it to Soviet and American training and reform efforts during and between other wars of the 20th and 21st centuries. This discussion also considers the Russian plan's implications for NATO.
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the conflict. George provides insight into how ISW produces its world-renowned maps of the war in Ukraine. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to track human rights abuses and Russian repression measures in occupied territory. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric.
ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview series between ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and senior members of his team to discuss the war so far, their assessments, and ISW's research methodology.
Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey’s growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey’s expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to contain Turkish activity without inciting overt state-on-state conflict. Nevertheless, divergent Iranian and Turkish threat perceptions could lead to miscalculations by either side. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, a senior analyst and the Iran team lead at the Critical Threats Project, and Ezgi Yazici, a Turkey researcher at ISW, discuss these mounting tensions and what they mean for US national security.
This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political and security trajectories, the risk of civil war in Iraq, how foreign interference and regional competitions are continuing to destabilize the Iraqi state, and where Iraq, and the region, may be headed in the months ahead. Click here to read the report.
A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Erbil, Iraq, on March 13, targeting an alleged Israeli intelligence site near the construction of the new US consulate. The attack demonstrates the Iranian leadership’s growing willingness to use increasingly aggressive and offensive capabilities to pursue external objectives and pressure regional adversaries. On this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Carl, the Iran team lead at AEI’s Critical Threats Project, joins us to discuss Iran’s strategic calculus in this context.
A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who have become increasingly marginalized in the political establishment in recent years. This bloc could complicate the intra-regime struggle to determine who will succeed the supreme leader when he leaves the scene. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with Iran analysts Nicholas Carl and Kitaneh Fitzpatrick from the Critical Threats Project to discuss this emerging bloc and what it might mean for US-Iran relations.
Russia continues to increase its military forces poised on Ukraine's border. The situation is tense, deadly, and complicated. On this episode, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark explains the current military picture and what he and his team believe will happen next.
Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” may do in 2022. Kat and Zach will also offer insight into the challenges and opportunities facing the Iraqi and Lebanese governments.
Over the past year, ISW’s Russia team has closely tracked Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus, its growing threats to Ukraine’s independence, and a range of other malign activities elsewhere in the world. Escalating events in 2022 and Putin's need to set conditions ahead of the Russian Presidential election in 2024 will likely force the Kremlin to either double down upon or pull back from these efforts. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia team lead Mason Clark discusses the inflection points that he and his team will be watching for. He’ll also share some of his predictions for Russia’s activity abroad over the coming year.
The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan government in 2021 brought the biggest shift in that country since the US invasion 20 years ago. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Afghanistan Researcher Peter Mills to talk about what to expect in Afghanistan in 2022. Peter will provide his prognosis for the Taliban government as well as share some specific inflection points that he’ll be watching for.
A tumultuous 2021 shows no signs of letting up for Turkey. Caught between the competing interests of Russia, the US, and the EU while being led by a man who believes Turkey ought to assert itself as an equal to those powers means Turkey’s limited resources will remain tightly strained in 2022. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW research director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Turkey Researcher Ezgi Yazici to talk about her forecast for Turkey in 2022. Ezgi provides her thoughts on the political trajectory of President Erdogan’s government, its entanglements in Syria, and its ongoing economic woes.
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has started a new phase in the war against the Islamic State. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is the local Afghan branch of Islamic State, which fought first the US-backed Afghan government and has continued to fight against the new Taliban government in the hope of creating a hardline Islamic caliphate. IS-KP has targeted Taliban fighters and officials, attacked economic infrastructure to prevent the government from providing services to the populace, and attempted to provoke a sectarian conflict by attacking religious minorities. On this episode of Overwatch, Afghanistan researcher Peter Mills discusses the origins, goals, numbers, and tactics of IS-KP, as well as their threat level to both Afghanistan and the US.
Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, the situation has ramifications for stability far beyond the frigid forests of this Eastern European border region. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Lead Russia Analyst Mason Clark discusses the origins of this crisis and its ramifications for the European Union, Russia, and beyond.
Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of northern Syria in late October, though deployments appear to have slowed since then. On this episode of Overwatch, Matt McInnis and Ezgi Yazici discuss what a new Turkish incursion could look like and the effects that such a development would have on the broader region. Visit www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isws-overwatch-podcast-series to see a map that ISW produced to help readers follow along with this discussion.
The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987. On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director Matthew McInnis about this assessment and what it may reveal about a possible future conflict with Iran and strategic competition with Russia and China in the region.
Dr. David Crist is the Executive Director of the Joint Staff History and Research Office and an advisor to US Central Command Commander General Frank McKenzie. He is also the author of “The Twilight War” which is still considered a must-read for students of the US-Iran conflict since the 1979 revolution.
You can see the entire declassified briefing on the ISW website.
We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other powers remaining in the region are openly jostling for influence in the vacuum left by US forces. Katherine Zimmerman, a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, has followed US counterterrorism issues and the war in Afghanistan closely. On this episode of Overwatch, she discusses the state of US counterterrorism efforts and American involvement in Afghanistan.
Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on this topic, we discussed the ways in which Russia’s definition of this term differs from the West and why those differences need to be understood by US leaders and policymakers. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark, ISW’s Russia team lead, talks about the places and ways in which Russia’s concept of hybrid war is affecting reality.
Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders cannot allow this semantic difference to go unexamined because those same Russian leaders believe they are on the defensive side of a hybrid war perpetrated by the West against Russia. Failing to appreciate the nuances of the Russian interpretation of hybrid war is therefore akin to ignoring a potential adversary’s rules of engagement and could easily lead to policy missteps and unintended consequences. Mason Clark leads ISW’s Russia Team and has been closely studying the Russian definition of hybrid war. He joins this episode of Overwatch to talk about the importance of this term’s definition in US-Russia relations.
The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei’s health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing seems increasingly imminent. Current indicators suggest that his successor will be more hardline and less willing or able to rein in the aggressive instincts of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Nicholas Carl, the Iran Team Lead at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discuss the leading candidates to succeed Khamenei, their policy views on engaging with the United States and the West, and how the process of picking the next Supreme Leader could affect US policy on Iran.
ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast Syria. The US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces has launched an operation to quell and contain ISIS activity in the camp, but the operation’s long-term prospects for success are grim without consistent international support. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Evans Hanson Fellow Eva Kahan discusses the ongoing operation and what it means for ISIS in the region.
Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even more dangerous security situation for the region and beyond. On this episode of Overwatch, Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, and General David H. Petraeus sit down to discuss the US-Taliban agreement, the consequences of a US withdrawal, and a sustainable way forward that protects not only American interests, but also advances those of the Afghan people.
The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot diplomacy with Iran using an ambitious agenda that goes beyond nuclear nonproliferation to include thorny issues such as the Iranian ballistic missile program and Iran's activities in the Middle East. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, is joined by Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute, and Nicholas Carl, the Iran Team Lead at CTP, to discuss nuances in Iran's upcoming presidential cycle that will have a significant impact on what the Biden administration can expect to achieve diplomatically with Iran.
Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and successfully expanded Russian military ties to several other states in the former Soviet Union. He exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to fuel disinformation campaigns against the United States and undermine sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. These successes came amid milder setbacks for Putin’s ambitions in the Balkans and Ukraine. The collapse in oil and gas prices ravaged the fuel-driven Russian economy but failed to derail Putin’s campaigns. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and George Barros discuss Putin and the Kremlin’s biggest successes and setbacks in 2020.
Tensions between the United States and Iran are high as a transition in administrations has happened in Washington, DC. President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers want to get back into the nuclear deal with Iran and make it stronger if Iran is willing to get back into compliance with the terms of the deal. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras, Director of Government Relations at ISW, and Frederick Kagan, Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discuss what we can expect in the looming delicate diplomatic dance between the United States and Iran.
A civil war between Ethiopia’s central government and one of its regional states threatens security across East Africa. Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and a US security partner; the humanitarian and security consequences of this domestic conflict have already begun to affect the surrounding region. The fighting has pushed refugees into Sudan, drawn in fighters from Eritrea, and created fertile ground for militant groups like Al-Shabaab to recruit and expand. On this episode of Overwatch, Jessica Kocan, an analyst from the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses the Ethiopian conflict and the dangers it poses to US national security interests and the surrounding region.
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the global order and reshaping the balance of power on the world stage. The lessons that nations and their militaries take from this crisis will shape their capacity to adapt to COVID-19 and enhance their resilience to future crises. Elsa Kania, ISW’s Non-Resident Fellow in Indo-Pacific Security, recently published a detailed report examining China’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese state and military’s coordinated nationwide response to the COVID-19 pandemic tested their national defense mobilization and civil-military fusion strategies. These are the capabilities China would use to move from peacetime to wartime in response to potential future crises and conflicts, including with the United States and its allies. Elsa discusses her assessment of these newly revealed capabilities and more on this episode of Overwatch.
The United States holds enormous power and responsibility in the world. With the US presidential transition underway, ISW President Kim Kagan sat down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (US Army, ret.) to discuss the many challenges facing the United States, including the pernicious effect of Chinese military diplomacy and the threat from Iran. McMaster argues that US troop deployments, and other forms of engagement abroad, "are immensely important to sustaining our security and prosperity" and that the US must savvily modernize its armed forces. McMaster outlines his view of the strategic successes and failures of the Obama and Trump administrations and his recommendations for President-elect Biden and his team. H.R. McMaster served as national security advisor from 2017 to 2018 and is the author of the recently published book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.
The recent local elections in Ukraine were an important political battleground in Putin’s contest to restore Kremlin-friendly rule and annex territory in that country, the objective behind his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin’s costly military operations failed to achieve their desired political outcome, resulting instead in a protracted war between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian proxies occupying eastern Ukraine and sophisticated political and information warfare aimed at shaping Kyiv’s government. The Kremlin recently sought to manipulate local elections in Ukraine to legitimize Russian proxies in Donbas, the territory they occupy in eastern Ukraine, and include its electorate within Ukraine itself. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team member George Barros discusses the outcome of Ukraine’s recent elections; the Kremlin’s techniques to attempt to influence Ukrainian elections; and the integration of military, political, and information operations in Russia’s hybrid war against its neighbor.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has a longstanding objective to integrate Belarus into Russian-controlled structures. The Kremlin is undermining the Belarusian president's attempts to calm protests while simultaneously using the protest movement to justify Russian involvement in Belarusian affairs. This interference may enable Putin to deploy more Russian forces on NATO's eastern flank and advance Putin’s campaign to reassert Russian control over former Soviet states. On this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark and George Barros discuss the trajectory of the crisis and what the Kremlin seeks to gain from it.
The US is routinely confronted with crises that worsen and expand in scope over time. Modern technology and global interconnectedness have made these self-reinforcing crises increasingly common and intractable. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle discusses this phenomenon and the danger it presents to US national security.
Mass anti-government protests erupted in Iraq in October 2019. The protests led to the resignation of the government in what became known as the "October Revolution," but not before crackdowns by Iraqi Security Forces and Iran-backed proxies killed over 600 people. On this episode of Overwatch, Katherine Lawlor talks about the origins of the protest movement, what has changed in Iraq over the last year, and what’s next for the protest movement as a whole.
Russian President Vladimir Putin plays a weak hand well. His center of gravity is increasingly his ability to shape others’ perception and create the image of a powerful Russia based on limited real power. He has several clear strengths, but also very real limitations. Nonetheless, he continues to achieve goals that should be beyond his capabilities. Nataliya Bugayova recently published a detailed report on how Putin has used a series of offsetting approaches to achieve his goals and how Putin has evolved these approaches since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. She joins Overwatch today to talk about her report and its findings.
The United States retains a small but highly effective force in Syria. This force has a clear mission: defeat ISIS and prevent the resurgence of extremist groups in eastern Syria. However, poor communication and muddled media coverage has contributed to a lack of clarity regarding the role and mission of US forces. In this episode of Overwatch, Jennifer Cafarella and Eva Kahan cut through the confusion to provide a clear assessment of the purpose, status, and likely future of US forces in Syria.
ISW Board Chairman General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired) is a foreign policy and national security expert who was in the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. He went on to provide oversight and support for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. On this episode of Overwatch, General Keane (Ret.) recounts his experiences on the day of the attack and gives his perspectives on the ensuing 19 years of war.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the local US partner force in northeast Syria, is facing intense pressure from ISIS, the Syrian Regime, and Turkey. The SDF’s already-fraught relations with local Arab tribes have deteriorated significantly, especially in Deir ez-Zour Province. These issues came to a head in August when the assassination of several tribal sheikhs triggered a tribal backlash against the SDF. In this episode of Overwatch, Eva Kahan, John Dunford, and Jason Zhou discuss the escalating situation in Deir ez-Zour and what it means for US national security.
Belarus has been in a state of civil unrest for several weeks. As popular protests came to pose a genuine threat to President Lukashenko's regime, Russia became involved to protect its interests in the country. Since then, the situation in Belarus has become exponentially more complicated, evolving from a relatively straightforward domestic dispute between a strongman president and his disgruntled citizens into an international debacle that involves Russia, Poland, Lithuania, NATO, and the EU. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Mason Clark and George Barros draw on their daily coverage of Belarus to unpack what the situation there means for US national security.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was in Washington this week for high-level bilateral meetings known as the US-Iraqi Strategic Dialogue. Kadhimi has been hard-charging toward reforms in Iraq that would combat Iranian influence and prevent the country from collapse, but these efforts will be undermined by Trump's call to leave Iraq soon. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras and Katherine Lawlor discuss Kadhimi’s position, the future of Iraq, and whether he remains a viable US partner.
Claimed ISIS attacks in Turkish and opposition-controlled northwest Syria have spiked in the past two months. The United States scaled down its forces in Syria and Iraq after the defeat of the Islamic State’s contiguous territorial caliphate in 2019. US policy-makers have since focused on empowering local forces who fought in the anti-ISIS coalition, including NATO ally Turkey. However, Turkey’s commitment to this fight remains uncertain. In this episode of Overwatch, Eva Kahan, ISW’s Evans-Hanson fellow, discusses these issues and what they mean for US national security.
Russia is offering rare support for a new ceasefire in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas by not blaming Ukraine for recent ceasefire violations, despite derailing several similar ceasefires in the past. The ceasefire began on July 27 and represents an important new development in the now six-year-old conflict between the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed proxy forces in eastern Ukraine. In this episode of Overwatch, Mason Clark and George Barros explain the significance of the ceasefire and what Ukraine and Russia hope to achieve from it.
Al Qaeda-linked groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Hurras al Din clashed in late June and early July and remain at odds as defections prompted by the former’s increasingly pro-Turkish posture continue. Al Qaeda is backing fighters from a diverse set of groups and HTS has likely secured Turkish support, making the persistence of a Salafi-jihadist haven in Syria very likely. In this episode of Overwatch, Nicholas Heras and Isabel Ivanescu discuss the causes and implications of the recent infighting.
The Islamic State and Al Qaeda are locked in a struggle for ideological supremacy in Africa. While this fight may seem appealing to the US, it presents some dangerous pitfalls that threaten US national security and the well-being of millions of Africans. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle, the research manager of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, explains how a fight between two US adversaries could catalyze greater challenges in the future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently enacted a constitutional amendment that will allow him to run for president again in 2024 and potentially remain in power until 2036. This amendment is a critical accomplishment for Putin, as term limits threatened to force him from office in 2024, but it came with a steep price in terms of legitimacy. In this episode of Overwatch, Nataliya Bugayova, Mason Clark, and George Barros discuss the nuanced steps Putin took to secure this constitutional change and what the next 16 years of his leadership could mean for the Russian people and US national security.
The Syrian Civil War is well into its ninth year and shows little sign of ending. The US recently deployed a new wave of sanctions targeting the Syrian Regime. Meanwhile, Russia, Turkey, and Iran are actively interfering with the UN peace process by running their own competing negotiations. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Middle East Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss these efforts and the complex webs through which they interact.
The global health crisis caused by COVID-19 has affected nearly every aspect of American society and government. The pandemic has forced changes to individual lifestyles as well as the highest levels of policymaking. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW National Security Fellow Jennifer Cafarella discusses the challenges, threats, and opportunities that COVID-19 presents to US national security.
Egypt is preparing a military intervention to prevent Turkish-backed forces from advancing into eastern Libya. The intervention raises the risk of direct conflict with Turkey, which could spread throughout the region. Meanwhile, Russia is positioned to benefit from rising tensions between Turkey and fellow NATO members. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle, Research Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses these issues and others.
The future of the roughly 5,000 US military personnel in Iraq is a key topic in a strategic dialogue that recently began between US and Iraqi negotiators. Iraqi opinion is split between those who oppose the continued US presence and those who believe it remains essential to Iraqi security. In the background, Iran and its Iraq-based political and militant proxies are pushing for the complete withdrawal of US forces. In this episode of Overwatch, Katherine Lawlor, Brandon Wallace, and Jason Zhou discuss the present state of affairs in Iraq and the implications of a possible US force withdrawal.
The Hill recently published an op-ed by Institute for the Study of War Senior Fellow Lieutenant General Jim Dubik (US Army, Retired). Dubik is one of America's preeminent experts on military ethics. His latest op-ed draws on his experience with the US counterinsurgency campaign in Iraq and uses the lessons he learned in that conflict to critique the US government's response to recent protests inside the US. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Editor Jacob Taylor speaks to Lt. Gen. Dubik about the purpose of his op-ed and his suggested improvements to the government's decision-making process.
The Syrian regime’s desperate financial situation has led President Bashar al-Assad to persecute his own cousin as a pretense to seize his financial assets. The cousin in question, Rami Makhlouf, has been a key supporter of the regime for years and is one of Syria’s richest men. His downfall demonstrates the regime’s dire need to obtain resources as it fights to keep control over territory in western Syria. In this episode of Overwatch, Nick Heras, John Dunford, and Michael Land discuss the implications of Assad’s fight with Makhlouf and consider the role that Russia and Iran may play in a reshaped Syrian regime.
Kremlin-affiliated networks are falsely accusing the United States of engineering the coronavirus responsible for the ongoing pandemic. This narrative is one of several interlocking disinformation efforts by the Kremlin that exploit COVID-19. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Russia team unpacks how the Kremlin's complex information operations support its long-standing objectives in Syria, in Ukraine, and globally.
New Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has strengthened his position and achieved a handful of successes in the first few weeks of his tenure. However, Kadhimi will face enormous challenges as Iraq’s new head of state, particularly in balancing Iraq’s tumultuous and often contradictory relationship with the US and Iran. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Research Assistant Katherine Lawlor discuss the first steps of Kadhimi’s administration and the pressures he will face as he renegotiates the role of the United States in Iraq.
Iran views Syria as an integral component of its military power in the Middle East. Despite converging public health and economic crises severely straining Iran’s resources, the country is sustaining, and possibly increasing, its military investment in Syria. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Program Manager Nicholas Heras, Syria Research Assistant John Dunford, and CTP Iran Analyst Kyra Rauschenbach discuss the nature of Iran’s attachment to Syria and what it may mean in the future.
Russia, the US, the EU, and NATO all consider the Balkans to be a region of significant strategic value. Despite the Kremlin’s best efforts to the contrary, the region is currently swinging toward the West, with North Macedonia recently joining NATO and several other Balkan states making progress toward EU membership. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Research Assistant George Barros discuss the past, present, and future of this historically volatile region.
Description: Years of poor governance and economic insecurity have allowed Salafi Jihadist groups to metastasize in several parts of Africa. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and CTP Research Manager Emily Estelle discuss the opportunities that the COVID-19 crisis presents for these groups to expand the reach of their terrorist activities.
The Kremlin is using the COVID pandemic to advance a range of goals. Russia is leveraging UN calls for limited relaxations of certain economic sanctions to paint the US as anti-humanitarian. Meanwhile, Kremlin internal security is using quarantines to justify the testing of new tech-based authoritarian controls. In this podcast, Nataliya Bugayova, George Barros, and Mason Clark discuss these developments and more.
General David H. Petraeus (US Army, Retired) and Vance Serchuk speak with ISW Founder and President Dr. Kimberly Kagan on the dangers of the US deal with the Taliban. They assess what the United States must do in Afghanistan to secure its national interests and prevent another 9/11. The US strategy in Afghanistan has been costly and unsatisfying - but also reasonably successful in preventing another terrorist attack on the homeland. The United States has made a peace deal with the Taliban in order to extricate its forces from Afghanistan, but it will soon lose the means to compel the Taliban to fulfill its part of the bargain. Should the United States pull its military out of Afghanistan anyway? Will the Taliban prevent international terrorists from returning? If so, can the United States counter terrorists in Afghanistan from afar? General David Petraeus has served as Director of the CIA, Commander of Coalition Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Commander of the US Central Command. He is now Chairman of the KKR Global Institute and a partner at KKR. He also serves on the Board of Directors at the Institute for the Study of War. Vance Serchuk is the Executive Director of the KKR Global Institute and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. He previously served as the Foreign Policy Adviser to Senator Joseph Lieberman.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of converging crises, including COVID-19, to surreptitiously advance his campaign in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials agreed on March 11 to the Kremlin’s demands to consider direct discussions with the Kremlin-controlled proxies in Donbas. This agreement, if finalized, could launch an irreversible process of legitimizing Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Russia Research Assistants George Barros and Mason Clark discuss this recent development and contextualize it in the Kremlin’s campaign to regain dominant influence in Ukraine.
The December offensive launched by Russian-backed Syrian Regime forces in Greater Idlib Province produced an unprecedented humanitarian disaster. Turkey responded to the offensive with major military deployments to Idlib and a series of escalations against pro-regime forces. In this episode of Overwatch, Middle East Security Program Manager Nicholas Heras and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss the Turkish campaign, the current ceasefire deal, and what to expect next.
Likely Russian actors launched a disinformation campaign against Ukraine exploiting COVID-19 fears related to the Ukrainian government’s evacuation of its citizens from Wuhan, China. The campaign’s tactics, timing, and nature point toward Kremlin involvement. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Russia Research Assistant George Barros discuss this information operation, the Kremlin’s disinformation techniques, and larger implications for Ukraine.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), America’s local partner in northeastern Syria, was instrumental in the fight against ISIS and is working to fill the vacuum it left behind. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW’s Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, new Middle East Portfolio Manager Nicholas Heras, and Syria Research Assistant John Dunford discuss the structure and behavior of the SDF, the group’s relationship with the US military, the unique challenges it faces in governing, and its efforts to prevent the resurgence of ISIS within local populations.
Qassem Soleimani’s death and the prospect of further US-Iranian military escalation raise the question of Iran’s military capacity. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Ground Forces are Tehran’s reserve of last resort for both internal and external security challenges. The Iranian regime goes to great lengths to obfuscate the IRGC’s military strength and organization of its ground forces. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) recently published the groundbreaking report Iran’s Reserve of Last Resort: Uncovering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces Order of Battle. In this episode of Overwatch, AEI Resident Scholar and CTP Director Fred Kagan and CTP Iran Team Lead Nicholas Carl discuss their recent report and the crucial role that the IRGC plays in the regime’s survival and Iranian efforts to project power and export their revolution abroad.
Vladimir Putin's current term as Russia's President expires in 2024. Over the past two weeks, Putin reshuffled Russia's government, proposed a set of major changes to the Russian constitution, and pledged significant social spending. ISW's Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova describes how this reshuffling fits into Putin's ongoing campaign to retain power and the subsequent vulnerabilities Putin will face as he manages this transition.
Last month, ISW Director of Tradecraft and Innovation, Colonel (Ret.) Ketti Davison, traveled to Iraq with a team of experts organized by the UNHCR. She got a first-hand look at some of the security and humanitarian conditions on the ground in IDP and refugee camps and met with government officials during her trip to central and northern Iraq. On this episode, Ketti shares her key takeaways from this trip and discusses the broader political dynamics that are currently shaking Iraq, a country that remains vital to U.S. national security interests.
The Kremlin is trying to pull countries around the world into its information space. Kremlin-linked media outlets signed more than 50 cooperation agreements with counterparts around the world in the last five years. Russia uses its information space to expand its influence, mask the Kremlin’s aggression, and spread disinformation that undermines the U.S. and the West. In this episode, ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Russia researcher George Barros discuss their recent publication on the Kremlin’s effort to expand Russia’s global media presence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is about to enter his third decade in power. As we enter 2020, how Putin sees his own position on the global map reveals a lot about what the United States can expect from Russian policy in the future. ISW’s Russia Team Lead Nataliya Bugayova and Research Assistant Mason Clark discuss where Putin has made progress in advancing his goals and where he has faced set-backs during this episode’s 2019 year in review assessment.
The U.S. national security community's growing focus on China and Russia is raising questions about the future of America's role in the Middle East region. Can the U.S. pull back from the broader Middle East and expect other actors to contain the threats building in the region? ISW Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Colonel (ret.) Ketti Davison tackles this question and how America should think about its strategy.
On this episode, ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses her new report “Russia's Dead-End Diplomacy in Syria in a Q&A exchange with Maseh Zarif. Jennifer describes Russia's attempt to exploit the current diplomatic process in Syria to enhance its own credibility and influence in the region and beyond. She outlines what the United States should do to defend its interests and deal with the primary obstacle to peace in Syria – Bashar al-Assad and his regime.
U.S. President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Turkey's ongoing offensive in Northeastern Syria on November 13th. The meeting occurred as fighting continues in Eastern Syria. ISW Syria expert John Dunford discusses the events in Syria and abroad that shaped the two presidents' conversation and its subsequent outcome.
The second round of Iraqi protests is entering its third week. ISW's Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Ketti Davison recaps how we got here and discusses the possibility for prolonged instability due to an emerging violent cycle of the protester movement.
Protests in Iraq have continued to grow after resuming on October 25th. Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri reversed his position on the ousting of the Iraqi prime minister under the direction of the Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander. This direct intervention by Iran signals the potential for a more violent Iranian crackdown against Iraqi protesters. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses three possible trajectories for Iraq's future.
The deadline to implement the first phase of the Russo-Turkish deal for northeast Syria passed without significant progress after Kurdish forces refused to withdraw from the border. Meanwhile, a new contingent of US forces deployed to southeast Syria to secure oil fields. US forces also patrolled a Kurdish area, indicating a continued relationship with Kurdish forces. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford explain these details and discuss what to expect next.
Evolving conflicts and unrest are reshaping the Middle East rapidly. The U.S. will continue to have key national interests at stake in this region even as challenges outside it demand greater American attention. ISW Board Member General (Ret.) David H. Petraeus joins Maseh Zarif to share his views on a range of issues, including the state of ISIS post-Baghdadi, Iran’s regional campaigns, U.S. policy in the region, and the challenge of balancing among national security requirements globally.
Rumors of an imminent resignation of the Iraqi prime minister emerged after nationalist Shi’a cleric Muqtada al Sadr made a dramatic return to Iraq and joined escalating protests in Najaf. He and Iranian proxy leader Hadi Al Ameri each released statements pledging to hold a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in the Iraqi parliament. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella discusses the political stakes and possibilities.
Mass protests resumed in Baghdad and across the Shi’a - majority provinces in southern Iraq despite the Iraqi government’s attempts to de-escalate through concessions and limited reforms. Protesters torched political offices and militia headquarters in multiple provinces, chanting slogans against both the Iraqi government and Iran’s proxies in Iraq. One Iranian proxy militia reportedly used live ammunition against protesters. ISW’s Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Iraq expert Samantha Leathley discuss Friday’s escalation and what could follow.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met to coordinate military movements in Northern Syria. The two presidents reached an initial agreement intended to push Kurdish forces away from the Turkey-Syria border region over the coming days. ISW Syria analyst John Dunford discusses what is known about the new deal and how it will affect Turkish and Russian actions in Syria moving forward.
Iraq’s government has not addressed the conditions that prompted street protests in early October 2019. Baghdad will also struggle to hold accountable the forces that engaged in a violent crackdown on protesters given Iran’s role in Iraq. The stage now appears set for a new phase of unrest. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and ISW Iraq analyst Samantha Leathley discuss the potential for renewed protests this week at a time when some U.S. forces are shifting from Syria into Iraq.
The U.S. military withdrawal from Syria and subsequent Turkish advances are creating a new opening for Russia and its partners. Russian forces have taken over areas vacated by the U.S. as the Kremlin positions itself to reshape Syria’s future. ISW Russia analyst Mason Clark joins ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella to discuss the latest Russian maneuvers and how they advance Vladimir Putin’s broader ambitions in Syria.
The situation on the ground is rapidly evolving as the Turkish offensive advances into Syria. ISIS is taking advantage of the conditions of chaos to resurge and threaten to reverse progress made by the Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella, Syria analyst John Dunford, and Counterterrorism analyst Brandon Wallace discuss how recent developments may threaten U.S. forces as they withdraw and what ISW is watching heading into the week.
Maseh Zarif and ISW Director of Innovation and Tradecraft Colonel Ketti Davison (U.S. Army, Retired) discuss regional destabilization in the Middle East in the wake of the crises in Iraq and Syria. They further address how the U.S. withdrawal from Northeastern Syria will have grave consequences for the future of US security operations and partnerships.
American forces in Northern Syria have begun a “deliberate withdrawal” as Turkish-backed forces continue to deepen their invasion of areas held by the U.S. partner force, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Lieutenant General Michael Nagata (US Army, retired), discusses the immediate and long-term implications of this retreat from Syria. LTG Nagata retired as the Director of strategy at the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC) after a long career in special operations.
Turkey has initiated a military operation into a part of Northern Syria controlled by Syrian Kurdish-led forces. The operation follows a U.S. decision to withdraw from the immediate area controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the primary Syria-based U.S. partner in the campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). As Turkish forces move across the border and the SDF responds, ISW’s Syria expert John Dunford explains the context, key dynamics shaping the battle, and the effects on the counter-ISIS campaign.
Iran signaled it may send Iranian security forces to Iraq, ostensibly to secure the upcoming Arbae’en pilgrimage. But Iran may alternatively be preparing these Law Enforcement Forces (LEF) to help suppress Iraqi protests. The LEF previously helped the Bashar al Assad regime attempt to suppress the Syrian rebellion as early as 2011. The Iranian Regime has used it more recently to quell domestic protests. The unit may assist Iran’s proxies in Iraq to do the same. Nicholas Carl, an Iran expert from the Critical Threats Project, discusses this possibility and its implications with ISW’s Research Director Jennifer Cafarella.
The Iraqi prime minister’s concessions to protesters reflects one aspect of the ongoing crisis, but it is only part of the story unfolding. There remains a fierce and ongoing competition for the future of Iraq. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella is joined by the Critical Threats Project’s Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl to discuss the Iraqi government’s recent actions, what the information environment tells us about the situation on the ground, and how the Iranian regime is positioning its proxies as it vies for greater control.
Turkey is about to invade Northeastern Syria with U.S. permission despite previous American security guarantees to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The U.S. has not yet announced a full withdrawal from Syria but U.S. forces pulled back from the border. ISW Research Director Jennifer Cafarella and Syria expert John Dunford will discuss what options the SDF has and how other actors, including ISIS and Iran, are prepared to exploit the possible chaos to follow.
The crisis in Iraq continues to escalate. Multiple reports of assassinations and other targeting killings of activists and demonstrators reflect an attempt to suppress the protests through intimidation, likely by Iran’s proxies. Leading Shia political figure Muqtada al Sadr called for the dissolution of the government and a new election in an attempt to oust the sitting Prime Minister, who has failed to address the crisis. A parliament session is reportedly scheduled for October 5th. It remains unclear whether a reshuffle in the political leadership in Baghdad would ameliorate protest demands, however. ISW’s Iraq expert Samantha Leathley joins Jennifer Cafarella to discuss developments on the ground and what ISW is watching for next. Crisis Briefis a special edition of the Overwatch series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding national security crises.
This update addresses the political dynamics that have lead to recent mass protests against the Iraqi government. ISW's Research Director Jennifer Cafarella zooms out to discuss how key actors, domestic political competition, and Iranian influence over the last several years has shaped the current crisis. Crisis Brief is a special edition of the Overwatch series intended to provide timely updates on unfolding national security crises.
Iraqi protesters have defied a government curfew in Baghdad, triggering renewed clashes with security forces. The death toll is now at 19 with hundreds wounded. The internet remains severed as the Iraqi government tries to disrupt the protest momentum and minimize reports of civilian casualties. ISW Research Directer Jennifer Cafarella and CTP Iran Analyst Nicholas Carl discuss what has transpired in the last 12 hours and what to watch for next.
A major crisis is unfolding in Iraq. Protests against the Iraqi government have spread to 11 predominantly Shi'a provinces and become violent. Government forces have used live ammunition against protestors in multiple provinces and are fighting with protestors to secure the Baghdad airport. ISW is providing an update on the situation as of 8pm this evening and outlining the possible trajectories for further escalation.
In this episode of Overwatch, Maseh Zarif talks with his ISW colleagues Nataliya Bugayova and Darina Regio about what Russia is up to in Africa. They discuss Russia’s coordinated campaign to gain economic and political influence, and its attempt to create opportunities for expanding its military presence on the continent. Nataliya and Darina also put this campaign in the context of U.S. interests, identifying why the United States should be concerned and what to look for in the coming months.
In this episode of Overwatch Maseh Zarif sits down with ISW's Research Director, Jennifer Cafarella, to discuss her report ISIS's Second Comeback: Assessing the Next Insurgency. Jennifer discusses her insights into what the group did in Iraq and Syria to survive the U.S.-led campaign and what it is preparing to do in the future. She also describes the current U.S. role on the ground and potential scenarios in the months ahead, and provides her view of how the effort to combat ISIS fits into the U.S. National Defense Strategy framework.
Overwatch goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.