Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast: Recent Episodes
Sara McPherson
In this podcast, John, Courtney & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank's Chief Economist, John Norris along with Portfolio Manager, Sam Clement and Director of Wealth Management Business Services, Courtney Truss.
https://www.oakworthcapital.com/ tradingperspectives@oakworthcapital.com
Investment in new technologies and the necessary infrastructure to support them is helping to fuel the economy. Is this a good or bad long-term development?
- Why are so many businesses building data centers?
- Why is electricity, not chips, becoming the biggest constraint?
- Who really wins economically: utilities, construction, industrials, regional economies, tech tycoons, or someone else?
- What is the environmental impact of data centers?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the AI-driven data center boom, its impact on energy demand and economic development and what it could mean for the future.
The housing market has been relatively depressed. However, a new home seems to be out of the reach for many Americans.
- Higher interest rates have been an impediment to the housing market, as they make monthly mortgage payments that much more expensive.
- The inventory of lower-priced or entry level homes isn't great enough for the demand, arguably keeping prices higher.
- The old real estate agents' mantra holds true: "location, location, location." Between economic conditions and local laws, the housing market can be very localized.
- What impact will reduced levels of immigration ultimately have on the housing market? On rents in general?
- What impact will the lack of housing affordability have on longer-term wealth creation?
Have investors moved on from the conflict in Iran? What would it take for it to matter again?
- Have markets already priced out the Iran risk?
- What has the market's reaction taught us about investor psychology?
- What would force investors to pay attention again? Are markets being complacent or correctly assessing the risks?
- Has the "buy the dip" mentality become so entrenched that geopolitical shocks no longer scare investors?
- What is the biggest takeaway from the conflict for investors?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss why investors have largely looked past the Iran conflict, how markets have responded to geopolitical uncertainty, and what it would take for the conflict to meaningfully affect the economy and financial markets.
The World Cup is a massive global undertaking every 4 years. Is it really worth it?
- The World Cup will bring fans in from all over the globe. What do you think will impress them the most, both good and bad?
- The prices for World Cup tickets, especially for 'key games and/or games,' is objectively high. Is the most popular sport in the world available only to the rich?
- Economic consultants estimate the tournament could generate billions in economic activity. How reliable are some of the more optimistic predictions?
- The World Cup might be great for host cities, but how much will it impact the rest of the United States? Will the average Joe in Fargo benefit?
- Who will ultimately win, and how well will the Americans do?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the economic implications of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, including its effects on host cities, local businesses, tourism and the broader U.S. economy.
There are some similarities to the 'dot.com' bubble of the late 1990s. However, there are some significant differences too.
- U.S. businesses have spent a lot of money on AI, and will need to see some form of return on this investment. What and when will this be?
- Is the sector expanding too much and too rapidly? How much longer can the economy continue to engender/foster/finance this growth?
- What will the eventual 'endgame' look like as it pertains to investing in AI?
- Are we in a bubble or not? Or is it not that easy?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the massive amount of investment in Artificial Intelligence and whether this has led to a bubble in the asset class.
In economic and military terms, Europe, as a whole, has had a pretty tough go of it since the Financial Crisis of 2008. While still a major player in global affairs, the data suggests it might not carry the same weight it did previously. From essentially being equal partners with the U.S., in many ways, it now seems to have taken a lessor role.
- How did this happen?
- Was it economic?
- Demographic?
- A differing opinion on what were once 'shared values' with the United States?
- A decline in overall military strength?
- Or some combination?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent struggles Europe has had in maintaining its historical importance in global affairs.
Since the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of price stability and full employment, investors tend to focus on the inflation and jobs reports. Just how many jobs is the economy creating? What does that mean for future monetary policy and economic growth? How will that impact my investment portfolio? However, recently, the jobs data has not been quite as robust as it had been coming out of the worst of the pandemic. But why?
- Has the economy cooled considerably?
- Is Artificial Intelligence to blame?
- Is corporate America hard-hearted?
- Or is something else to blame?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent cooling in the labor markets and what it could mean for future economy growth.
The U.S. military recently arrested Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro on a slew of drug-related issues.
- However, was Washington's goal really Maduro?
- Or was it access to Venezuela's massive oil reserves?
- Also, what message does this recent action send to other international leaders?
- And, finally, what is the ultimate definition of success for the United States in this instance?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent abduction of Nicholas Maduro, and what it might mean for geopolitics.
This week, a major American automaker announced a significant write-down on its investments in electric vehicles (EVs).
- Does this mean the company overinvested or simply invested too early?
- Are American consumers fundamentally resistant to EVs?
- Or have various governments pushed EVs faster than the sector, market and infrastructure can truly support?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the current turmoil in the domestic EV sector and make some predictions about what the future may hold.
It seems an increasing number of Americans are finding it harder to see "the light at the end of their financial tunnel."
- Everything costs more, and the necessities of life have increased in number.
- It seems the cost of living is rising faster than the cost of living it up.
- Everything from housing to childcare to the electric bill is taking a bigger chunk out of the household budget.
This begs the question: is it time to redefine what poverty means in the United States?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent struggles many Americans are having. Is there any hope for improvement? Or do we need to redefine what success looks like?
Few would debate the potential that AI has to upset the labor markets. However, people seem to have different ideas about which jobs AI will eliminate first, and which jobs are safe for now.
- So, which are truly at risk — and which aren't?
- Further, what can workers do to protect themselves from AI-related job cuts?
In this episode of Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the impact AI will have on the labor markets.
Recent polls suggest younger Americans are less inclined to believe in the so-called American Dream and the benefits of capitalism. But why?
- Especially when so many non-Americans still do?
- Could it be social media has skewed what the American Dream really is?
- Or is there truly a generational difference in the appeal of economic systems like socialism, communism and capitalism?
- Finally, what is the likelihood greater governmental involvement in the economy will produce the results some politicians have been promising?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris walk a proverbial tightrope while discussing what the recent election results really mean.
A lot of folks seem to believe that the recent tariffs will drive a lot of manufacturing jobs back to the United States. However, the decline of the traditional "blue-collar workforce" in the United States has been decades in the making.
- Will the imposition of a new tax be the magic bullet to reverse this trend?
- Does the U.S. even want many of these manufacturing jobs back?
- Further, why do politicians put such an emphasis on factory jobs when it comes to job creation?
- Are all jobs good jobs?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the future of manufacturing and manufacturing employment in the United States. Is the future bright, dark or still a little cloudy?
It is no secret technology stocks have been a driving force in domestic stocks. However, their continued rally has led to the overall sector becoming a huge chunk of the market, and therefore the market's return.
- How has the happened?
- Is the concentration to tech stocks truly indicative of the overall diversification of the US economy?
- Has this sort of lack of diversification ever happened previously?
- What might this mean for the future of the domestic stock market?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how so-called tech stocks have become the dominant force behind the US markets. It has been a wild, and mostly fun, ride. But will it continue?
With the government currently shutdown, investors are struggling to determine the true health of the U.S. economy. Key among the concerns is the strength of the U.S. consumer. As the old saying goes: "how goes the U.S. consumer is how goes the U.S. economy."
- So, have tariffs impacted the price of goods or consumer behavior?
- What is the U.S. consumer buying?
- If the focus on 'need to have' goods and services or 'nice to have'?
- How are companies getting tired consumers to their stores and websites?
- Finally, what impact will AI have on consumer spending in the future?
In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the current consumer market, and attempt to answer any questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer.
This week, the Federal government officially ceased all "non-essential" activities. Unfortunately, this was widely anticipated due to differences of opinion in healthcare spending on Capitol Hill. However, what it all means for the average American isn’t completely clear.
People want to know:
- What is a government shutdown and what is it not?
- What or how have we gotten to this point?
- What is the practical impact on day-to-day economic activity?
- What are the long-term ramifications?
- What is the likelihood this will happen again?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent government shutdown, its potential causes and possible outcomes.
On September 17th, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the target overnight lending rate between member banks. This was as expected. However, it seems not everyone is completely clear on what it means. So….
- What is a Fed rate cut and what is it not?
- What had the investment markets been waiting for the Fed to cut?
- What might this mean for mortgage rates?
- Or for consumer debt?
- Finally, how will this impact corporate America?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris give a little class on Fed Rate Cuts 101, and discuss some of the potential ramifications of this most recent one.
What does it mean when the Fed meets and doesn’t do anything? When the Bureau of Economic Analysis says the economy grew 3.0% when it really didn’t? When the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the labor markets are stronger than anyone believes they really are? When all official measures of inflation don’t seem to reflect the consumer’s reality? Essentially, what is the truth behind the headlines and all of the noise?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris dissect a busy week of economic releases, earnings announcements and Fed meetings, and try to make sense of it all.
This week, Democratic voters in New York elected Zohran Mamdani to be their candidate for the mayoral election in November. Perhaps not surprisingly, the 33-year old’s popularity with the younger generations helped to catapult to victory. However, his political platform and campaign processes are giving the traditional elites the fits. Rent freezes? Free public transportation. Free childcare? Government-run grocery stores? Higher taxes for corporations and the so-called 1%? A $30/hour minimum wage? Regulating delivery apps? It is very aggressive and more than a little bit idealistic. The question remains: why do these economically questionable positions appeal to younger voters?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent mayoral primaries in New York, and analyze the winner’s appeal to younger voters.
The title is an allusion to a famous headline in New York during the Ford Administration….when Gerald Ford essentially blocked a financial bailout for the city.
This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn’t cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President’s tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the year. All told, the Fed meeting this week was something of a downer.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Fed meeting and how no one should be fired up about it.
Legend has it the Roman Emperor Nero played his fiddle while Rome burned down around him. These days, domestic investors keep throwing money into the financial markets despite troubling headlines both here and abroad.
- But why is the American investing public apparently ignoring the world around it?
- Is it a change in risk tolerance?
- Easier access to retail investment products?
- Recent past performance?
- Does the money simply have to go somewhere?
- Or are we fiddling while the world burns down around us?
On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent curious rally in the US stock market and the potential causes for it.
The Administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) has had caused a lot of wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth. How are we going to pay for all of these tax cuts? Where have the tax credits gone? What do you mean the states can’t regulate Artificial Intelligence?
However, the hullabaloo misses the point: without a meaningful pickup in economic activity and reduction in Federal expenditures, there is no hope to get the budget deficits under control. Is there anything to be done? Interestingly enough, perhaps.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the OBBB and what it means for the US.
This week, the Court of International Trade sort of put the kibosh on the Administration’s blanket, reciprocal tariffs. Also, Elon Musk made his exit from the apparently ineffectual DOGE, but not before taking a few passing shots. Also, while the House passed the President’s “big beautiful bill,” a lot of people are wondering how Washington can possibly pay for it. All told, from the outside looking in, it wasn’t a very good week for the President. So, where does he go from here?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the Administration’s trying week and where it must go from here.
This week, the stock markets rallied sharply on news the Administration was going to cut the tariff rate with China from 145% to 30%.
- However, should investors be enthused with constantly shifting economic policies?
- Particularly those like tariffs, which add costs to both the importer and the consumer?
- Further, with the economy already cooling slightly, is now the right time to play hard ball with our trading partners? Basically, what is the real cause for celebration?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the extreme reaction the markets had to the reduction in tariff rates with the Chinese.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced the U.S. economy shrank during the 1st quarter of 2025. Obviously, that is not good news. However, is it the bad news the headline would imply? Are we standing at the edge of the economic cliff? Or will the UJS economy be able to take a step back of the abyss?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and whether the U.S. is headed for a deep recession. So, is the sky really falling?
After a few days of positive returns, it seems the market panic has subsided. So, is now a good buying opportunity? Is it safe to get back into the investing waters? Or would it be prudent to wait a while? After all, the threat of tariffs are still very real and very possible. The economy appears a little weaker than it was in 2024, consumer confidence has collapsed and corporate America doesn’t have a good idea what the remainder of the year will bring. If that sounds like a good time to invest to you, have at it.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market volatility and ask a very basic question: is now the time to buy?
One of the Administration’s primary goals with the tariff wars seems to be onshoring production jobs. Intuitively, that makes sense. More jobs are almost always better than fewer. However, are these the types of jobs the American economy actually needs and the American workers actually wants? Further, what is the likelihood companies make drastic shifts in their production facilities, understanding President Trump will be gone in less than 4 years? These are great questions which need real answers.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest David McGrath discuss the potential for more manufacturing jobs in the economy and wonder whether they are worth the pain.
We have all heard the worst-case scenarios, and everyone is hoping for the best-case ones.
However, what is the probable case scenario?
Oakworth Capital’s Investment Committee discusses the recent market volatility and likely outcomes.
Yesterday, the Administration announced widespread tariffs on the remainder of the world. It hit some countries harder than others, with rates which will certainly curtail trade between our country and theirs. Is this really good for overall economic activity? Given the stock markets’ extremely negative reactions, it would seem like it isn’t. So, why did we do it?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discussed the announced tariffs and their potential impact on the economy.
If the headlines have seemed somewhat repetitive recently, it is because they have been. Another day, another DOGE headline and another barb traded. The markets continue to be choppy and gold continues to rally. Foreign leaders have to be tired of bristling against comments from Washington. While arguably exciting at first, the news has become boring and predictable in its unpredictably. It has almost been like listening to the same record over and over again.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss recent global events and what has been the most surprising to them thus far in 2025. Will you be surprised by what they have to say?
The policy making committee of the Federal Reserve met this week and didn’t cut interest rates. That was as expected. But if it was so widely expected, why did anyone care? Does the Fed have access to information the rest of us don’t? Does it have crystal balls which actually work? Are the voting members on the committee that much smarter? Or have we given the Fed magical powers it doesn’t really have?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the most recent Fed meeting and what it means for the economy, if anything.
It had all been going so nicely, had it not? The markets and the economy were better than the experts expected in 2024. Business owner and consumer confidence spiked after the November elections, and the world has been in a flurry of activity since. Unfortunately, people don’t seem to be having as much fun as they were. The markets have been bleeding red ink, and the headlines have been talking about a recession. How did we get here so quickly? And how quickly can we leave?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market turmoil and speculate on what caused it and when it will end. Let’s just say no one likes uncertainty.
Investors have been very skittish for the last couple of weeks. The potential for trade wars with the Canadians and Mexicans have people on edge, and for good reason. The economy was slowing enough on its own already. However, are tariffs really the economic death knells people think they are? Will they really cause U.S. consumer prices to go through the roof? Why do this and why do it now?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent concerns over potential trade wars with major U.S. trading partners, and ask the question: are tariffs really that bad?
Recent economic reports and corporate earnings releases suggest the vaunted U.S. consumer might be running out of steam. The official savings rate has plummeted. Consumer confidence gauges are down. Loan delinquencies are up. Mid-tier restaurant closings are becoming commonplace. So, how much longer can the ultra-wealthy continue to spend at its current level to mask these problems? Will a pullback in the stock market close the wallets of the income group currently holding the economy together? Are we at an inflection point? Because all of the negative anecdotes can’t be simply anecdotal, can they?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the curious case of the U.S. consumer. Much of the data suggests it is running out of gas, but some of it says otherwise. What is the truth? And what is the likelihood the consumer pulls back over the next couple of quarters?
Over the last 12 months, gold has been one of the best performing asset classes, but why? It is a shiny metal, which doesn’t pay a dividend or interest and doesn’t generate any profits. So, why are investors flocking to it? Further, how much longer will gold, and other precious metals, be, well, golden? The answer might just be basic economics.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent rise in gold prices. While it might be amazing to some, Sam and John discuss why it shouldn’t be.
This week, there were some positive signs the warring parties in Gaza and Ukraine might be willing to sit at the negotiating table to end the recent hostilities. However, given the historical differences between the groups, what is the real likelihood of a lasting peace? Or will whatever happens end up being a short-term bandage for an otherwise longstanding wound? Can the Trump administration really put a permanent end to conflicts which have been for centuries or even millennia?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent prospects for peace in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Do either have a chance for success? If so, which one?
After two consecutive years of surprising economic growth and stock market returns, what can 2025 do for an encore? However, there are some serious questions. Just how strong is the labor market? Will inflation subside enough to give American consumers a break on the necessities? Will all of this debt ultimately cause the economy to crash? Will the new Trump Administration really be able to pull off everything the President has promised? The list of worries is almost endless.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John Norris gives a pragmatic take on the probable case scenario for the year. Things might not be as rosy as everyone would like. However, they are far from the worst case scenario.
This week, a Chinese company named DeepSeek shocked the markets by claiming it had made huge advancements in Artificial Intelligence at a fraction of the cost and effort of the big tech giants in the United States. Is it too good to be true? Further, what would it mean for the average worker if the AI industry were able to expand even more rapidly than currently imagined? Will there be any jobs left? Or will our computers, tablets, smartphones and other devices put us all out of work?
In this Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the startling revelations and practical implications from the news out of the AI sector this week.
The first week of Donald Trump’s second term in office was a whirlwind of activity. What surprised some people was he did a lot of what he said he was going to do, even some of the head-scratching stuff. However, how much was political posturing and how much was actually trying to govern more effectively? Did any of the executive orders make economic or societal sense? How much more can we expect and what will the economic ramifications be?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the first week of President Trump’s second Administration. You can love or hate what he did, but the sun still came up in the East the next morning.
The recent wildfires in Los Angeles have been horrific to witness and even more so to live through. But could they have been avoided? If not avoided, could an effective governmental response mitigated the damage to the error? Was it climate change or government inefficiency which exacerbated an already bad situation? Are there any generational differences of opinion?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the wildfires in California and debate whether it had to be as bad as it has been.
The current transition of power from the Biden Administration to Trump Part 2 has been one for the books. The current president has been issuing pardons and making executive orders like has not been seen in recent memory. For his part, the new president has been acting like he is already in office and appears willing to alienate a good chunk of the world in the process. Are these good things? Are they the new normal? What do they mean for the smooth transition of power in the future?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the increasingly bizarre time between one Administration and the next. Are there any generational differences in how they feel about all of the weirdness?
As we start 2025, a lot of people want to know what the upcoming year holds for them, the economy and the investment markets. So, what does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions, but what is the truth?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris go through the second half of Oakworth’s Investment Committee’s predictions for 2025.
After another strong, if confusing, year in 2024, what can the US economy and financial markets do for an encore? What does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest Ryan Bernal go through half of Oakworth’s Investment Committee’s predictions for 2025.
This year has been another wild one in the markets, economy, society and geopolitics. But what have we learned? What was most surprising about events throughout the rest of the world? What changes happened in our domestic society, for good or bad? How strong is the U.S. economy, really? Does anyone tell the truth anymore?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the year that was in 2024, and where they think everything is headed in the upcoming year.
Over the weekend, Syrian rebels overthrew the Assad dynasty, which had ruled the country for 5 decades. On Monday, the US stock market shrugged, and meaningful news coverage of the event was hard to find. Do American investors simply not care about the rest of the world? After all, there seem to be a lot of global problems and US stocks are at an all-time high. Further, what is it about the Middle East where just about all countries have a powerful king or some other form of strongman or junta calling the shots? Will it ever change?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Syrian Revolution, and why Americans ignored it almost as soon as it happened.
The global wholesale diamond market has essentially collapsed over the last several years. Publicaly traded jewelry companies have been struggling with softer revenue and earnings. With the exception of perhaps ultra-high end brands, the demand for fine jewelry has essentially stalled. Is this due to the consumer being strapped for cash? Or have consumer preferences changed? After all, the demand for fine china and antique wooden furniture also seems to have waned. Could it be generational preferences or is it purely economic? Has supply outpaced demand?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how problems in the jewelry sector have more to do with alternatives and supply than changing consumer preferences.
Last week, Target Corporation announced disappointing sales growth for its 3rd Quarter of 2024. This was just another hint at a broader U.S. consumer slowdown or cooling. While spending forecasts aren’t dire, how much fuel does the average American household have in the tank to propel the upcoming holiday shopping season? Will it be merry and bright for retailers? Or will Santa be leaving coal in their stockings?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming holiday shopping season, and whether the U.S. consumer can continue to spend money at the same pace it has.
Though November 20th, Bitcoin has more than doubled in value since the start of 2024. Since the end of 2022, it has more than quintupled. But why? Even the most passionate crypto investors have a difficult time explaining exactly what Bitcoin is in terms the average person can understand. It doesn’t pay dividends or interest. It doesn’t generate revenue or profits. You can’t hold it. Heck, you can’t even see it. So why do certain investors love it as much as they do? This asset class which exists out in the technological ether?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent rally in Bitcoin and wonder just how much longer can it last. After all, it seems like we have been through this previously. So, is this time different?
Now that the U.S. elections are finally over, investors are looking at their portfolios and wondering if the United States is still worth the risk. Will it still be able to generate attractive rates of growth? Are its institutions still relatively stable? Is its currency still sound? Will the Republicans spoil a good thing?
On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how the U.S. remains the most attractive investment market for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. stock market took off like a rocket the day after the election. Why did it rally as strongly as it did? Was it policy? Something to do with Trump himself? Relief the painful campaign process was finally over? Or could it be the next 2-4 years looks a little less cloudy than it did on Monday? After all, investors have already had 4 years of a Trump presidency. Or could it be some sort of combination?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the markets’ extreme reaction following the U.S. elections, and what to expect for the remainder of 2024 and moving into 2025.
Leading up to election, social media has been inundated with posts about minimum and living wages. However, what are they exactly? Do they actually work? Whom do they benefit and whom do they hurt, if anybody? Or, are they mostly political props candidate use to curry favor with voters?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the minimum wage and the concept of a living wage, and why they are difficult to enact, at best, across a nation the size of the United States.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss trends in the restaurant industry and the likely causes for many of the recent closures. John also gives a huge shout-out to Current Charcoal Grill here in Birmingham.
After another crazy year in the economy and markets, will there ever be a return to some sense of normalcy? Join John Norris, Sam Clement and David McGrath from our investment committee in this recorded webinar panel discussion on this topic and more:
- How will the Fed rate cuts impact the economy? - Why the disconnect between the economic data & public perception? - What can the stock market do for an encore? - Will the U.S. be able to avoid a recession? - Will the presidential election have an impact on the markets?
We'll talk through this and more! Plus, listen in on our Q&A session at the end.
To the outsider, American consumers must be a weird bunch. They will bemoan the cost of something insignificant, like a carton of eggs, while spending obscene amounts of money on concert tickets, sporting events and other types of activities. Undoubtedly, this change in consumer behavior will impact the economy moving forward. However, are the government agencies accurately capturing its impact using methodology they developed for a simpler time? What if our experiences are changing how we look at the economy?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the soaring cost of having fun and what it means for the economy on our daily lives.
Last week, The People’s Bank of China threw an unprecedented amount of stimuli on the Chinese banking system in order to spur the sluggish economy. The Chinese stock markets have soared in response. However, will it be enough? The Chinese economy and banking system are facing severe structural challenges which could take decades to repair. From declining demographics to the collapse in the residential real estate market to the Communist Party exerting control over the private sector, China is probably not the growth engine it once was.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris talk about the recent attempts to jumpstart the floundering Chinese economy. Will they work? Or will China be in for a decade of discontent?
In the United States, millions of people use some form of social media every second of every day. For many, it is their primary source of information. If so, just how accurate is it? Further, are they getting news from a number of different sources and voices? Or is it the same people saying the same thing over and over again? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the impact social media outlets will have on the upcoming elections?
After months of speculating when the Fed would cut the overnight rate, it finally did so this past Wednesday by 50 basis points. Further, Fed Chairman Jay Powell essentially said this was the first cut of potentially many, while reiterating the economy was still strong. So, what does this mean for the U.S. economy? What does it mean for the real estate sector? What does it mean for the American consumer? Will lower rates really be the cure for what we think ails us? Or, like sugar pills, are they psychosomatic?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the first Fed rate cut in 4 years and what it could mean for the economy. Will it be a magic bullet? Probably not, but it is probably better than nothing.
The Census Bureau recently reported the official Poverty Rate fell to 11.1% in 2023. Historically, this is a very low number. Further, median household income rose to an all-time high last year, and the current unemployment rate is a miserly 4.2%. Washington tells us the Consumer Price Index is a very manageable 2.5%, and real wages are going up. This is all very positive news, but why do so many people not believe it? Is the government’s methodology flawed or is it purposefully feeding the public false information?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the disconnect between the official economic data and the public’s perception of reality. Is the data an accurate reflection of what is happening? Or is a negative news cycle warping people’s perceptions? Inquiring minds want to know.
The quickest way to grow an economy is to unfetter it. However, the Federal government has enacted over 200,000 pages of regulations in the Code of Federal Regulations. It also routinely investigates naturally occurring monopolies, usually in the tech sector, which is both time consuming and costly. Since regulations present a cost to doing business, and, therefore, slowing economic activity, why does Washington persists in increasing the regulatory environment. Again, already over 200,000 in the making and growing.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how the recent DOJ investigation into Nvidia is just another example of how Washington tacks on costs and oversight without any clear benefit for the consumer.
Baseball card collectors should beware. The same could be said of folks who have stamp and coin collections. China table settings? Antique furniture? Silver serving trays and tea sets? Any so-called collectors’ item you can buy off the television? Most of these things don’t have the true market value many think they do. That is to say, what people are actually willing to pay for an item, and not where someone is trying to sell it on Ebay. But why when these items seem to be so precious?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the real value of collections. You might not like what you hear.
Sometimes the official economic data doesn’t tell the whole story. So, when the data is in doubt, you have to go to corporate earnings releases to find the truth. Last quarter, it seems the truth was lower income households are feeling the pinch, and upper income earners are becoming more cost conscious. At least on somewhat generic goods and services. This makes perfect sense, as tickets for Taylor Swift and Beyonce cost a lot of money. So do international vacations and trips to the Gulf of Mexico. So, are the rich changing their spending patterns?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss recent consumer behavior, and question whether inflation is already coming down on its own thanks to these shifts.
Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to increase at a decreasing rate. That is ordinarily a good thing for US consumers. However, don’t tell that to potential first-time homebuyers who still can’t find a decent house at a monthly payment which makes sense. This keeps them renting instead of owner, which makes sense in the short-term but doesn’t over time. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the US housing market and some of the reasons why young people are having difficulty buying a home. Unfortunately, things likely won’t get much better for a while.
After an incredibly easy go of it for the first seven months of 2024, the start of August was a rude awakening to U.S. stock investors. The market can and will go down, and no one is happy about it when it does. However, what was the real cause of this recent sell-off? Was it really a weak jobs report? Japanese monetary policy? Impending economic doom? Or was it a relatively normal reaction an unusual market?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent market turmoil. Is this a temporary setback? Or are the bad times here to stay?
This week, Israel assassinated high ranking officials in both Hamas and Hezbollah. The world currently awaits Iran’s reaction and response to the killing of its allies. Will it lead to a greater escalation of hostilities in the Middle East? If so, just how involved with the United States get? With all of the anti-Israel protests happening in this country, will young Americans be willing to fight and die for U.S., Israeli and other western interests in the United States? Or will Generation Z question the validity of the interests after the last decades of American wars without a clear-cut objective?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the increasing tension in the Middle East. Will younger Americans step up to defend their long-time ally in the region, Israel?
The 2024 Presidential campaign has been nothing if not exciting. From the disastrous first debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to President Biden dropping out of the race, things couldn’t get more weird. Or could they? Kamala Harris will assuredly leave the Democratic Convention in Chicago as the party’s official nominee. However, who will be the Vice President on her ticket? Just how far to the left will the party platform go? On the other side of the aisle, what does JD Vance ultimately bring to the ticket? Is the GOP actually trying to win? There are too many questions and too few answers this close to the election.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming Presidential election and how bizarre the campaign, thus far, has been. Can it get worse between now and November?
The collapse in the real estate market in China, and subsequent banking crisis, haven’t attracted much media attention in the United States. However, it is a very real story to the average Chinese citizen and that country’s prospects for economic growth moving forward. Simply put, the incredible erosion of wealth due to falling housing prices will constrain consumer spending and investment for the foreseeable future. Numerous private sector bank failures will leave Beijing even more in control of the financial system. As a result, what the central government doesn’t outright own it can control through the access to credit. This will undoubted curtail innovation and entrepreneurialism. While China can continue to grow and remain a threat to the United States, its growth rates have peaked, probably permanently. What will that mean as the Chinese Communist Party tries to cling to power?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the ongoing real estate and banking crises in China, and how it will likely impact the global economy? Why is this such a secret?
What if NATO held a conference in Washington and nobody paid any attention? As far as most Americans are concerned, that is exactly what happened this past week. Regardless of the general public’s disinterest, NATO remains the United States’ primarily military alliance and commitment. Further, NATO obligates the U.S. to potentially fight and die for countries many Americans couldn’t find on a map. So, why don’t we care more than we do?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss NATO and our nation’s general apathy towards that organization. Are there any generational differences in opinion since John grew up during the Cold War and Sam didn’t?
The recent U.S. Presidential debate has been a topic of discussion since one minute after it began. Is the current President capable of serving out another term? Is the former President capable of keeping his ego in check to run the country without malice? What does this do for the election? What does this mean for the perception of American power around the world? Will widespread concern about Joe Biden’s effort result in a new Democratic candidate?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris have a frank discussion about the debate, and try to determine to a probable case scenario for November’s election and what that means for 2025.
With China as the most notable exception, the world’s richest countries 25 years ago are still largely the richest. Similarly, the world’s poorest countries at the start of the century are still at the bottom of the list. The same could be said for U.S. states. Why is this? Why do some countries and economies continue to thrive and others languish? Why do some have spurts of growth before petering out? How do some economies without any natural resources perform so well while others with an abundance dramatically underperform? Why are the disparities a constant? Why do some areas embrace change and others don’t? After all, change is necessary for inclusive, sustainable growth.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss why rich countries seem to stay rich and poor countries remain poor. Is there a magic formula for success? And what is the anchor holding people back
Recently, the G7 held its annual meeting in Italy. In the past, this gathering got a lot of media attention. Recently, it hasn’t, and this year was no exception. After all, the only leader of the group who is certain to be at next year’s event is Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. As a result, some have called the meeting “Meloni & the 6 Lame Ducks.” This relative weakness from the developed, western world’s leaders comes at an inopportune time. The Global South, led by China, is increasingly flexing its geopolitical strength, which could bode poorly for the existing world order. What does this mean for the US and the West’s existing world order? Could it suffer due to the current lack of leadership?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent G7 Summit, the West’s current relative weakness and the Global South’s rising importance.
With the news surrounding Elon Musk’s potential $50+ billion pay package from Tesla, people are again focusing on CEO pay in general. Should these people be making THAT much money? While the headline numbers are truly mindboggling, is there more to it than meets the eye? Is there a difference between income and wealth creation when analyzing an executive’s true value to a company? Further, do shareholders really care if the company is making them money? Finally, do we really want the government to determine how much people should be allowed to make in the private sector?
In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss CEO pay and whether it is truly as unconscionable as it may seem. However, is anybody really “worth” that much money?
South Africa, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the European Parliament are all having elections over the next 6 weeks. Individually, each of them has consequences for the United States and their own regions. Combined, they could very easily have a massive global impact. Will the South Africans continue their drift into the Chinese and Russian orbits? Will Mexico continue to move further away from the center, as it has under its current President? Will the United Kingdom be able to stop its decade-long slide? What happens if the European Parliament goes from being a very liberal organization to very conservative?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming elections…just not the ones in the United States.
The world’s population is growing. Most of these people will be in third-world countries. They will aspire to have creature comforts Americans take for granted. Things like appliances and central air. In the United States, accelerated computing (AI), cloud and blockchain technologies and electric vehicles consume a lot of energy off the already stretched grid. In short, the demand for electricity, energy in general, is poised to accelerate over the next several decades. Is the global grid prepared? Will there be the necessary capacity? How will utilities around the world be able to provide the necessary power without using fossil fuels? Is there any way to prevent higher prices for US consumers?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the inevitability of an energy crunch in the not so distant future. John is so confident, he has bet Sam a steak dinner utility prices will be significantly higher, greater than the official inflation gauges, over the next five years. Is he right?
The U.S. stock market has been surprisingly strong thus far in 2024. This, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve hasn’t cut the overnight rate, and doesn’t appear poised to do so anytime soon. So, what is driving the current optimism? How much higher can stock prices climb? What will it take for U.S. investors to finally sell their positions? Should we reimagine the traditional methods of valuing the markets? Are the younger generations changing the rules of the game?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the surprising continued strength in U.S. stocks, and ask the following question: “how much longer can the market rally?”
Washington continues to report rosy economic data, and the general public continues to not believe it. Why is the average American so down on the economy when the official data suggests they should be happy? Is it inflation? Is it societal divisiveness? What is the real story?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the disconnect between the public’s perception of the economy and what the government is saying is the reality. Who is right?
The recent turmoil, protests and an apparent lack of accountability at many prestigious American institutions of higher learning have begged a question: is an Ivy League education still worth the cost? Does the rarefied air of these schools for the elite still impress the American public the way it once did, not so long ago? If not, why and when did it happen? What’s more, will it ever again.
In this episode of Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing protests at numerous Northeastern colleges and universities and wonder whether these schools will return to position of prominence with the common man. The answer isn’t as simple as yes.
With all the turmoil around the world, and the subsequent drawdown on US stockpiles, just how prepared would the US be if the planet erupted in a hot war? Would the United States have enough ammunition, missiles, ships and planes to fight several different types of wars on several different continents? What’s more, is the American public ready for such a thing?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss about American military preparedness in what is increasingly a dangerous time.
Last week, the minimum wage for fast food workers in California went to $20. This will become the de facto minimum wage for unskilled labor across the state. While it might seem like a win for workers, what will be the likely end result? After all, someone will have to absorb this mandated cost increase, and it isn’t just going to be employers. Don’t tell anyone in Sacramento that, though.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the concept of the minimum wage and what its real impact is. If you took an Econ 101 class, you already know the answer.
Last week, a wayward container ship struck the Key Bridge causing it to collapse. This effectively closed the Port of Baltimore until the powers that be can clear the wreckage from the shipping channel. Will these delay derail the US economy? Will it cause supply chain issues up and down the East Coast? Will we have to wait months for our cars, our coal and our sugar?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent collapse of the Key Bridge and what the indefinite closure of the Port of Baltimore could mean to the US economy.
The recent turmoil in Haiti begs the question just what is the United States’ role in that fractured country? However, what should our role be in the Democratic Republic of Congo? Somalia? Myanmar? Gaza? Ukraine? The jungles of Colombia? Central America? And any other place which is suffering with internal strife, famine, civil war and worse, if that is possible? Should Washington spend taxpayer money and risk American lives meddling in other countries’ affairs? Are there any generational differences?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk what role the United States should play as police force to the world? Is that something Americans want us to be any longer? Will our younger generations even take up arms to do so?
This week the Administration restated tailpipe emission standards which will effectively end the American auto industry as we currently know it. The goal is simple: to have more Americans drive more electric vehicles in order to drive down harmful carbon emissions. However, as the old saying goes, for every action there is a reaction. Did the Administration really think through all of the probable consequences of its emissions mandate? At first blush, it wouldn’t appear so.
On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recently announced tailpipe emission standards and how the US economy simply isn’t ready, willing and able to abide by them.
Everywhere you look, it seems people are doing better than you are. They drive nicer cars. Eat better food. Wear nicer clothes. Have cooler friends. Take fancier trips. You name it. However, the chances are someone is looking at you, and feeling the same way. This begs the question: can money really buy happiness in a society which consumes so much of it? At first blush, it would seem so. But can it really?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about whether money truly can buy happiness. Are there any generational differences? Or does it depend on everybody’s unique definition of what happiness means?
What if they threw an election and no one cared? After all, both Biden and Trump had pretty much locked up their party’s nomination long before this week. So, a lot of Americans didn’t even bother voting. How will the sense of resignation impact the consumer and markets over the long months to November? Is the recent rally in cryptocurrencies and precious metals due to this sour sentiment, this angst, or something else? How much longer can it last?
On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent Not So Super Tuesday and what it could mean for the remainder of the year.
The government says the economy is growing rapidly and the U.S. consumer is alive and well. However, people don’t seem to believe this apparent good fortune, and complain about having to tighten their belts. So, just how strong is the U.S. consumer? And, what would you least be willing to cut out of your budget if worst came to worst?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about what they would chop and what they would keep in their budget if times really got tight. Are there any generational differences and Trading Perspectives?
This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher in January than analysts had been predicting. The markets didn’t like the news, much like consumers. The question remains: how much longer will inflation be a problem? If higher interest rates can’t do it alone, what must happen in the economy? And from what Washington has been telling us, the economy has been chugging along nicely.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent inflation and their thoughts on where prices are headed over the next twelve months.
There is little argument much of this century’s economic growth will come from emerging economies. However, that doesn’t mean there will always be money to be made in them for US investors. Growth is one thing, profit is another and the return of profit is yet another. Do the powers that be in places like Beijing, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Hanoi, New Delhi and elsewhere have US investors’ best interests when at heart? That is a difficult question to answer in the affirmative.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss emerging market investments, some of the reasons why they have underperformed and why investing in these countries requires a lot more homework than the average US investor realizes.
The bickering, back-biting and name calling which we have come to expect from election cycles is already at a fever pitch. Although Donald Trump still has to get past Nikki Haley, the two political parties are wasting little time bad-mouthing each other. It is enough to make one tune down the volume or switch channels. How did we get to this point?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing political campaigns to determine if there are any generational differences to how the general public perceives them. Are the older folks wiser? Or can they learn something about processing all of this information from the kids?
This week, the SEC effectively approved Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency ETFs for retail investors. No longer will folks have to trade on some shadowy platform or even open up a Coinbase account. It is cryptocurrency for the masses, but is it a good idea? After all, can anyone effectively value, say, a Bitcoin? Is it really a currency? A method of exchange or store of value? Or is it a volatile asset class? If the latter, what happens when it becomes completely mainstream? When your grandmother can buy it?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss recent SEC rulings approving Bitcoin ETFs. Just how successful will they be? Who is going to buy them? Also, what is going to happen in the other SEC now that Nick Saban has retired?
While a lot of people make resolutions to start the year, few of them actually see them through to fruition. With that in mind, what should the planet’s most powerful people resolve to do this upcoming year? What will they actually resolve? The two don’t have to be the same.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John try to solve the world’s problems by guessing the new year’s resolutions of the world’s biggest leaders. Do you agree?
What will the stock market do next year? Will the economy go into recession? How many times will the Fed cut rates, if they do so at all? As always, there are so many questions leading into a new year.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John share their thoughts about what could be in store for 2024. Is it good news or bad? You will have to listen to find out.
This week, central banks across the world essentially said their collective fight against inflation was over. In the United States, the Fed’s own data suggested it would start cutting the overnight rate roughly 3 times in 2024. Couple that with Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments about inflation, and investors took it as the end of this tightening cycle. However, this begs the questions: 1) is inflation really dead, and; 2) did the Fed do the right thing?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the Federal Reserve’s non-action this past week and what it means for the economy and the markets heading into the new year.
This past weekend, the CFP Committee chose its Top 4 teams to participate for the national championship. But were they the best, let alone the most deserving teams? Is there any real difference between the best and the most deserving? Or did the committee simply make a business decision? After all, money talks, and it always has.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the upcoming college football playoffs, and ask the question: are the Top 4 teams participating or are the Top 4 most profitable?
After surprising right-wing victories in elections in Argentina and the Netherlands, pundits have noticed there seems to be a growing trend towards nationalism, especially in Europe. While some outlets blame record immigration levels for this change in sentiment, the causes could also be economic. After all, has globalism produced the economic benefits in Europe or South America that its supporters claimed it would? That is a good question. What if it is a combination of the two? After all, when times are already tight at your house and in your country, how does a flood of immigrants help?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the growth of nationalism in Europe, and to a lesser extent Argentina. Is it cause for concern? Or is it just the national reaction to the mixed results globalism has delivered on the continent?
This past week, the board of directors at OpenAI abruptly terminated co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This came as a shock to just about everyone but the board itself. However, it reopened the conversation about AI and its potential future impact on, well, everything. That it has the potential to fundamentally change our lives and conduct business is without question. However, who will benefit the most? Who will adapt the quickest? Who won’t adapt at all? Are there any generational differences?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the potential impact AI will have on business. Which one do you think is the most scared of AI? Are either?
Depending on to whom you are talking, America’s global influence is either plummeting or slowly decreasing. Regardless, it seems no one feels the US is in ascendency. How did this come about and what are the reasons? Further, what does it mean for the US economy, if anything at all? Does it matter if the US is no longer the world’s policeman, but is still a major economic force? Are there any generational differences of opinion?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John welcome Sidney Fry to the podcast to discuss the changing face of America’s global power, and if there is anything to be done about it?
Although analysts keep saying inflation is coming down, prices at the store certainly aren’t. This is the difference between relativity and absolutism. Although prices have been elevated for a while, consumers continue to have sticker shock. So, how much longer will it be before the average U.S. consumer accepts higher prices are here to stay and move on? While it be next year, 2025 or never?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss higher prices and when the U.S. consumer will quit complaining about them. One says next year and the other thinks it will be 2025. Can you guess which?
As everyone knows, Washington is already running eye-watering deficits. What happens when the U.S. has to significantly increase defense expenditures in order to fulfill our global promises? Couple that with an apparent unwillingness to address runaway entitlements programs, and how is the Treasury going to pay for it all? At least at current interest rates? Simply put, it isn’t. At some point in the not so distant future, the Federal Reserve is going to have to stop reducing its balance sheet and start doing some YCC (yield curve control). It isn’t a question of if, it is a question of when.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss Washington’s profligacy and its ability to finance it moving forward. The low-hanging fruit is getting the Fed involved, again, but when? John and Sam bet a beer on it. Who will win?
Recently, consumers have been using drugs approved to treat diabetes to lose weight. Depending on the person, the results can be significant. Further, it seems people using these drugs for weight loss often change their consumption patterns, at least to some degree. While this is obvious great news for a country struggling with obesity, what does it mean to companies and economic sectors which depend on Americans being fat? There is real money at stake.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the recent spike in the use of weight loss drugs and what it means for the US economy.
Last weekend, Hamas unleashed a coordinated military attack against southern Israel, catching the latter off guard. While the world’s leaders have condemned the attack, social media message boards and websites aren’t anywhere close to being one-sided for the Israelis. Far from it. Since young people are more apt to use social media, is there a generational divide in public support for Israel? If so, what has caused it and what does it mean if the situation escalates?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the conflict in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip. How does Gen Z feel about it relative to Gen X?
Long-term interest rates have climbed dramatically over the last two months. This has negatively impacted bond and stock investors. However, many people fear they have higher still to go. After all, Washington keeps running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve and foreign investors aren’t buying as many Treasuries securities, and domestic investors want a high real rate of return. Then there is the current mess in Washington. So, just how much higher will rates go before people start gobbling them up?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent increase in interest rates and the political turmoil in Washington. Is there any reason for rates to go down? If not, how much higher will they go?
This week, Ford announced plans to pause production on an electric vehicle battery assembly plant in Michigan. This was due to political pushback stemming from the realization that Ford was going to license the necessary technology from the Chinese firm CATL. However, given how far behind the US is in EV battery technology and supply-chain sourcing, is it realistic to imagine the Big Three expanding its EV production without technical assistance from China?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the current state of the EV market in the United States and what changes the Big Three have to make in order to compete without help from the Chinese.
The division between labor and management seems to be growing around the world. From railway workers in Sri Lanka to doctors in the U.K. to screenwriters in Hollywood to autoworkers in the Midwest. Does it make sense? Or do those on strike not fully understand the bigger picture, even if they might have a legitimate grief? After all, telephone operators probably had gripes too.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss various strikes around the world, but focus on those closer to home. Are the strikers truly bargaining from a position of strength? Does management fully comprehend the future of its various industries?
Recent sharp increases in energy prices have caused pain at the pump and pushed the inflation gauges higher. Couple this with student loan repayments, and what, then, is the state of the U.S. consumer heading into the holiday shopping season? When things get tight, what gets the ax? Is it travel? The movies? Restaurants? Or is everyone different? Further, what impact would this have on overall U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Basically, how much will this recent uptick in inflation drive down real economic growth? Should we be worried?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss recent, unexpected increases in inflation and what they could mean for the U.S. economy. Are there generational differences about the probable cause scenario?
After years of pandemic-related moratoriums on the repayment of student loan debt, the clock has finally stopped ticking. Unless something dramatic happens, people will have to start paying back what they have borrowed. Have they budgeted for it? Not likely. If they haven’t, what expenditures get the ax? Essentially, what can younger people cut out of a monthly budget when there is a serious need for cash?
In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam and John welcome another member of Generation-Z to the podcast, John’s daughter Annie Norris. With two Gen-Z’s with which to contend, will John be able to wax nostalgic about how much cheaper things were back in his day?
It seems COVID is rearing its ugly head again. As a result, more and more people are wearing masks in public and consciously keeping their distance from others. It begs the question: what would the public’s response be to future mask mandates, economic shutdowns and shelter in place orders? Would we acquiesce as quickly as we did in 2020? Or will people push back on the government this time around?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the potential for a return of pandemic restrictions. Would the government try such a thing? Would people comply? Are there generational or regional differences? Regardless, next time should be different.
Everyone knows lower interest rates are supposed to stimulate economic growth. If that is the case, the inverse must also be true. However, is that really the truth? After all, the Japanese have had manufactured low interest rates for almost three decades, and where has the growth been? The same could be said for the Europeans over the last decade or so. Shoot, even the American economy seemed to be weaker than it should have been with artificially low rates. This begs the counterintuitive question: are high interest rates really as bad as advertised?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the impact permanently higher interest rates might have on the economy. It might not be as bad as feared.
The Chinese have been reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve has stopped adding huge amounts to its balance sheet. However, Washington will still have to borrow trillions of dollars over the next decade. Will we be able to finance at 4% if the Chinese and the Fed are on the sideline? What will individual U.S. investors need to see before they go back to bonds? 5% 6% or higher? It seems higher interest rates are here to stay, but just how high is high?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss longer-term interest rates in the U.S. and where they think they will stop. What does the past suggest? What is their gut telling them?
After a positive July, the dog days of summer have shown up in August. The heat has been oppressive, Fitch downgraded U.S. Treasury debt, Moody’s downgraded the banks and the tech stocks have fallen apart.
Is it time to worry?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, John and special guest Grace Schlenker discuss why things seem to be boiling over during the hottest time of the year.
This week, the Fitch Rating organization downgraded U.S. Treasury debt from its highest rating of AAA to AA+. But what did it accomplish? Is the U.S. Treasury market no longer the world’s most liquid? Is the U.S. dollar no longer the world’s primary reserve currency? Did the U.S. financial system suddenly become more opaque? Is the U.S. Treasury in danger of defaulting on its debt? Or is the bigger issue Washington’s inefficiency in spending money that it will eventually have to repay? Further, does anyone really want the Congress to tighten the purse strings in a meaningful way?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the probable outcomes of Fitch’s downgrade and what it really means for the US. Perhaps Sam really isn’t as cynical as everyone says. Or maybe he is.
For much of 2023, commentators have been wondering about the health of the domestic movie industry. Actor and screenwriter strikes aside, a lot of tried-and-true formulas weren’t performing as well as the studios wanted. Was this a change in consumer preferences? Had streaming killed the movies? Or were viewers just bored? Then came along a strange combination of the world’s most famous plastic doll and “the father of the atomic bomb.” Did Barbenheimer save Hollywood?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss changes in the domestic movie industry and come to a not so startling conclusion. If it is unique and interesting enough, people will continue to go to the movies.
Although the economic data has been a little cooler recently, the temperatures outside have been blisteringly hot. What are people doing to escape heat? Further, what can governments around the world do to combat what seems to be more volatile weather patterns? Can they do anything at all?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the current heatwave and how they are trying to stay cool. Is there something we all can be doing to reduce stress on the climate?
Recently, Gallup released the results of its annual survey tracking Americans’ faith in their public and private institutions. Not surprisingly, the results were pretty disappointing. It seems, we don’t place a lot of trust in much in 2023. However, this has been a trend going back decades. But where did our trust go and why?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss their own faith in various institutions. Are there any generational or gender differences? Further, who would expect to be the most positive? You might be surprised.
Considering all of the advancements in artificial animal protein products, are they logical substitutes to the real thing? After all, all of that soy and pea proteins have to come from somewhere. That doesn’t even include the palm and coconut oil many of these companies use. Further, are animals really as bad for the environment as many would lead you to believe? Then, (and finally) are American consumers ready to switch to meat grown in a lab? Is that sort of thing even kosher or halal? Let alone affordable for the average consumer.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the meatless, meat industry. Will it ever be completely scalable? If so, what would the impact be on the environment, let alone the electrical grid?
Last week, the terrible saga of the OceanGate Titan made global headlines. Will this put an end to commercial exploration or give it a spark? What’s more, who should pay for search and rescue missions when things go awry? Finally, is there any real difference between hubris and risk taking?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent disaster and what it would take for them to take such risks when exploring the world.
It seems there is always a ‘gotcha’ hidden fee whenever you purchase anything. From thinking you are getting a good deal to sticker shock, this has been a bane for consumers for years. A fee here, a fee there and you are in the poorhouse before you know it. How can companies get away with all of the hidden costs? Or is it the consumer’s responsibility to find out all of the costs before making their purchase? Finally, is it the government’s responsibility to get to the bottom of this?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss hidden fees and how they have impacted their purchasing decisions in the past and how they will impact them in the future.
Recently, the Administration has pushed for the eventual elimination of natural gas stoves. Intuitively, this could eventually entail hot water heaters, furnaces and other gas powered appliances or products. Is this feasible? Who will produce all of the necessary parts, wires and final products? How much additional electrical capacity will we need? Can the current grid even withstand a mandated uptick in demand for electricity? How do we get from here to there in an economically doable fashion?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss recent proposals for eliminating gas stoves, et al, in American households. Is this a legitimate use of government power? Regardless, is it even practical?
From Dothan, Alabama, to Edinburgh, Scotland, it seems good help is hard to find. Despite soft economic data, the labor markets remain surprisingly strong. This is especially true for hourly workers. Why are they in such short supply? Are there just not enough people to do the work? Or is there something else happening here?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss chronic labor shortages here at home as well as over in the UK. How can this be... with economic activity as mediocre as it has been?
Americans currently aren’t having enough children to replenish the population. Fortunately, immigration should be able to make up some of the domestic shortfall. What is the cause of this? Is it economic in nature? Or is it societal? Essentially, why are Americans waiting longer to have children and having fewer of them? What are the financial implications of more or less children? Are there any long term consequences?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss America’s birthrate woes. Will the pendulum ever swing back the other way? Or will our society’s focus on individualism lead to future population decline?
At a recent presentation, someone asked John what kept him up at night. Was it the debt ceiling imbroglio? The Federal Reserve? The potential for a recession? War in Asia? War in Ukraine?
With so many different problems from which to choose, what keeps you up at night? Is it one of these things or something completely different altogether?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss their greatest fears for the present and the future. Are there any generational or gender differences?
Currently, four of the five big professional sports leagues are in action. While these depend on the common man for success, the money the athletes make is anything but common. The numbers boggle the mind. The question remains: “how much longer will the American public continue to pay the bills?” After all, a trip to the ballpark for a family of four can be an expensive undertaking.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the runaway salaries professional athletes make. Will they continue to help foot the bill?
While the rate of inflation has recently gone down, prices remain higher than where they were this time last year. Will this impact any summer vacation plans? If so, how? Will more folks have staycations? Or will people make more PB&Js to take to the beach while on vacation? After all, the wallet might not be as thick in 2023.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss how higher prices have impacted their personal travel plans for the summer. You might be surprised by the results.
The US dollar has been the preferred reserve currency and method of international exchange since the end of WWII. How much longer can this continue? After all, the rest of the world wants a say about how the global financial system works. But is there an alternative to the greenback? Also, should Sam and Courtney get euros and pounds now or later?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the global currency markets, the best way to exchange currencies for the average traveler and whether the U.S. dollar will ever falter.
Over time, the government has gotten more involved in the lives of American citizens. It seems there is a law, ordinance or tax on just about every action and transaction we make. While the argument is always that they are in “the public good,” at what point should that supersede individual rights? Are there any generational or gender differences in opinion?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss governmental involvement in their day-to-day lives and what, if anything, they would do differently.
Recently, Bud Light has made a lot of headlines for using social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney to promote its product. This has unleashed a firestorm of opinion on the role of influencers in general. Are they effective? Are they cost efficient? Are they the wave of the future as marketing departments get more granular in attracting specific demographics?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the use of social media influencers and the impact they have on their purchasing decisions.
Anyone who has been in the market for a new or used car lately knows they have gone up sharply in price. Inventories are still extremely low for both and borrowing costs are substantially higher. Can potential buyers still get the car of their dreams? Or is the dream becoming a nightmare? If so, when will it end? Will car prices ever come back down to a manageable level?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the sticker shock in the car industry. Will this impact their buying decisions? For how long? After all, they could all be in the market for a new vehicle if the price is right.
The U.S. labor markets have been incredibly strong for the last couple of years. However, a few months ago, cracks began to show as tech companies started to let workers go. For a while, the job losses seemed relatively contained to the sector, but they seem to be popping up everywhere. How much longer will it be before they hit your industry and your town?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent increase in layoff announcements. Is this a serious long-term problem? Or is a logical readjustment to slower rates of growth?
It seems every movie is a sequel or another rendition of long established characters and stories. The same could be said for music as well. Is our entertainment industry in a collective funk? Why do we keep seeing the same old same old, but only with new actors? Has creativity bottomed in the United States? If so, what does that say about the future? Or is there something else happening?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John ponder why everything seems to be a remake. John also realizes just how old he really is.
There has been an increased number of calls to ban the Chinese social media app, TikTok, in the US. The thought is that Beijing is using it to spy on Americans in order to both gain and skew information. However, would banning TikTok be a violation of the 1St Amendment? Would it be a violation of free speech? Is there any precedent for this sort of action during peace time? Or is this a big conspiracy hoax?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the ongoing TikTok saga. Should the government ban it? You might just be surprised who thinks it should.
It seems every day brings a new problem with some bank somewhere. How did this happen? Couldn’t anyone foresee these problems? Is there any end in sight? Will this ultimately be a repeat of 2008? Is there a flock of black swans out there?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent problems in the global financial system. Will these lead to a much bigger contagion? Or will cooler heads ultimately prevail?
This past week, senior Chinese officials made it very clear Beijing feels threatened by the United States. Or was it just for show? Was the saber-rattling a way of saving face or a new way of doing business with the People’s Republic? With everything that is happening in the world, is the US really capable of handling a two front war against major powers? What is the ultimate endgame and what does success look like?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the ongoing deterioration in ties between China and the United States. What are the impacts for the world? What are the potential impacts for them personally?
It seems Washington has been arguing about the debt ceiling for an extremely long time. Why does it go through this political theater? Is there really any appetite in Congress to meaningfully reign in spending? If so, what gets the ax? Also, is there any end in sight to the deluge in dollars? Should we be losing sleep over this?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the Federal debt and what, if anything, can be done about it. John also challenges Usain Bolt to a footrace…with a catch.
The average American's attention span has fallen dramatically over the last decade. Currently, 47 seconds is about the time people can stay focused on one subject. How has this impacted worker productivity? How has it impacted mental health, which ultimately impacts productivity? Is technology to blame? Social media? If so, what can we do as a society about it?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John analyze Courtney’s decision to give up social media for Lent. Will she be able to do it? Will this make her more productive?
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing has been making a lot of headlines. But what is it exactly? Should companies put ESG considerations ahead of the shareholders best interests, as in turning a profit? Also, what happens when or if societal norms shift? Will companies have to change everything just to stay in good ESG graces.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss ESG investing and whether it is important to them? More than that, they discuss whether it is even necessary if a company is correctly executing its business model.
Sometimes the headlines are hard to believe. Such was the case this past week, as a massive Chinese spy, presumably, balloon floated across the United States. Washington waited until it was just off the coast of South Carolina to shoot it down in order to prevent damages and injury on the ground. All of this begged a lot of questions. Don’t the Chinese have low-orbit satellites already? Why would they resort to a balloon which was visible on clear days? Why hasn’t Beijing pitched more of a fit about us blowing it up? Why was the Pentagon so patient in destroying it IF the balloon was really that much of a security threat? Or was this just another instance of a foreign power testing US resolve in an increasingly changing world?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the Chinese spy balloon and what appears to be a changing world order. Has the so-called “global South” had enough of the existing world order? If so, what comes next?
Football legend Tom Brady announced his retirement, again, this week. Unlike most people, Brady has plenty of options and professional opportunities ahead of him in his “retirement.” This begs the question, what does retirement mean to you? Is there is a differing of opinion between generations? Between genders? Do people have realistic expectations about what the future will hold for them?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss what retirement means to them. Not surprisingly, there are some trading perspectives.
The sharp increase in egg prices has made a lot of headlines. What is the cause and how is it really impacting American consumers? Do people really eat that many eggs? Are the higher prices causing people to consume fewer? Or are chicken eggs more inelastic than you might think? If so, how much longer are these high prices going to last?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent rise in egg prices and how it has impacted them personally. Is there any relief in sight?
A number of major companies have already announced layoffs in 2023. These are the ones that get the headlines. However, a lot of smaller businesses have also been letting people go or even shutting for good. After all, when Microsoft announces 10,000 job cuts, it is all over the media. Not so when Daddy Pet’s BBQ in Grand Rapids extinguishes the pit. So, what is behind the recent job losses? Are there seasonal factors at play? Or is this more of a systemic weakening in the labor markets in general?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent job cuts, their probable causes, and the likely outcomes. They also touch on another issue: are the elite policy makers completely out of touch with Main Street?
After a topsy-turvy year in 2022, are Americans looking for a fresh start? If so, what are the willing to give up or start doing to get things right? In short, what resolutions have Americans made to start the new year? What resolutions have Sam, Courtney and John made to better themselves? Finally, what are the resolutions some global leaders should have? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss new year’s resolutions and whether they are worth the effort.
After three consecutive years of the unexpected, what can investors expect in 2023. Will things return to some semblance of normal, if we even know what that means any longer? What are some of the safe predictions for the new year? Are there any black swans swimming towards us? If so, what will they be.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the prospects for the upcoming year and come to a somewhat startling prediction. Will it come true or how can it not?
2022 was another weird year. The data was bizarre and geopolitical events were head scratching. Unfortunately, this led to a lot of red ink in the investment markets. With everything seemly out of kilter, were there any lessons to be learned? Any a ha moments? Good takeaways from a very frustrating year.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the past year and come to a couple of conclusions. While they didn’t trade perspectives, they might have hit the nail on the head.
The holidays have always been a time for massive blockbuster movies. However, changing consumer behavior seems to be threatening this tradition.
After all, a lot of people wonder why they should pay no small sum of money in order to watch a movie that will be on a streaming service in a few weeks.
Still, others love the whole ceremony of going to the theater, getting a soda and popcorn, and enjoying the entertainment with others. Which side will win? The new consumer or the old traditionalist?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the movies and whether they plan on going to the theater over the holidays. Will it be a surprise who is planning on doing so or not?
In a nation where conformity is paramount, recent protests in China have made global headlines. It seems even the Chinese don’t like Beijing’s zero-COVID policy. However, is the government more concerned with the virus or controlling the citizenry. If the latter, what does that mean for the global economy moving forward? Can multinationals pull their manufacturing capacity out of the PRC fast enough? If so, to where exactly? After all, if China doesn’t protect the rights of its own population, why would it protect those of foreign companies?
This week, Sam, Courtney and John discuss China's lockdowns and the protests which have erupted in that country. How would we have responded in the US? What is Beijing’s real endgame and what can the rest of the world do about it?
With inflation eating away at wallets and pocketbooks, how strong will the US consumer be this holiday shopping season? Analyst estimates are all over the place. However, a sharp spike above the rate of inflation would be an enormous surprise. Will families with small children step up or back from the plate? How about Gen X and Baby Boomer “empty nesters’? Will Gen Z even spend money at all?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the upcoming holiday shopping season. Will it be better or worse than what the experts think?
Over the last 12 months, cryptocurrencies have fallen dramatically in value. Much of the downfall has to do with tighter monetary policy. However, recent scandals and exchange collapses at platforms like FTX have caused new questions. Are cryptocurrencies a legitimate store of value? Will they ever get back to those highs from 2021? Frankly, who is in charge here? Or is that still a selling point, that no one is in charge? Will anything be able to change the minds of either crypto bulls or crypto bears?
This week, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the collapse in the cryptocurrency market in 2022. Is it a temporary setback or will it forever change how investors view the asset class?
Although the government keeps reporting strong jobs numbers, it seems layoffs are on the rise. This is especially true in the technology sector, where many household names have announced some form of job cuts, hiring freezes, and downsizings. So, which is it? Is the labor market strong? Are these job losses contained within the tech sector? Or are they the proverbial “canary in the coal mine, with bigger labor pains to come?
This week, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent spate of layoffs in the tech sector and what it might mean for the broader economy…if anything.
Recent standardized test scores suggest US students fell sharply behind during the pandemic. This isn’t surprising given the problems with remote learning. However, is that the only reason? Could it be something greater and potentially more sinister? Are we failing our children by not making education a bigger priority? What does the future hold?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent National Assessment of Education Progress assessments and debate what, if anything, can be done to reverse the trend.
Recent standardized test scores suggest US students fell sharply behind during the pandemic. This isn’t surprising given the problems with remote learning. However, is that the only reason? Could it be something greater and potentially more sinister? Are we failing our children by not making education a bigger priority? What does the future hold?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the recent National Assessment of Education Progress assessments and debate what, if anything, can be done to reverse the trend.
While the holiday shopping season seems to have been getting longer each year, some retailers put their Christmas decorations out in September. It is hard to get into the spirit when it is 80 degrees outside, so why has this happened? Is it due to excess inventories? Retailers worried consumers are going to reign in their spending this year? Has inflation forced the retail industry’s hand? Or is this just the way it is? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the holiday shopping season, and whether they have any plans to alter their expenditures this year. Will 2022 end on a ho-ho-ho or a oh-no-no?
While the holiday shopping season seems to have been getting longer each year, some retailers put their Christmas decorations out in September. It is hard to get into the spirit when it is 80 degrees outside, so why has this happened? Is it due to excess inventories? Retailers worried consumers are going to reign in their spending this year? Has inflation forced the retail industry’s hand? Or is this just the way it is? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the holiday shopping season, and whether they have any plans to alter their expenditures this year. Will 2022 end on a ho-ho-ho or a oh-no-no?
This week, the Administration announced new plans to turn ‘gig economy’ workers into employees, as opposed to independent contractors. While the intent might be well-meaning, what impact will this have on the workers and the economy? Is it necessary and do workers really want it? Finally, who will get hit the hardest if the cost of gig work goes up for the end consumer? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the impact of turning gig workers into corporate employees. Is it desirable for the economy? For the consumer? Or even for the worker?
This week, the Administration announced new plans to turn ‘gig economy’ workers into employees, as opposed to independent contractors. While the intent might be well-meaning, what impact will this have on the workers and the economy? Is it necessary and do workers really want it? Finally, who will get hit the hardest if the cost of gig work goes up for the end consumer? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the impact of turning gig workers into corporate employees. Is it desirable for the economy? For the consumer? Or even for the worker?
The ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter appears to be reaching an end, with the former honoring his initial purchase price. What does this mean for the company? Will a Musk-owned company demand freer speech? Eliminate bot and other false accounts? Figure out a better way to monetize the company’s technology? Trim a bloated workforce? And will the company let Donald Trump back onto the platform? Inquiring minds want to know. What will it mean for their own social media use?
The ongoing battle between Elon Musk and Twitter appears to be reaching an end, with the former honoring his initial purchase price. What does this mean for the company? Will a Musk-owned company demand freer speech? Eliminate bot and other false accounts? Figure out a better way to monetize the company’s technology? Trim a bloated workforce? And will the company let Donald Trump back onto the platform? Inquiring minds want to know. What will it mean for their own social media use?
This week, far-right politicians won a clear majority in Italy. This follows on the heels of the UK’s recently proposed pro-business policies. Even traditionally liberal Sweden has elected right of center governments. Then, the headlines suggest the GOP could make up serious ground in the Congress this November. Across the globe, people seem to be shifting to the right. Are people suddenly more politically conservative? Or are people simply responding to human nature after close to 3-years of societal and economic upheaval?
Almost 8 months into the fighting, it doesn’t seem there is a legitimate end in sight. Will Moscow up the ante to save face? Why have the Russians had such a difficult time subduing a smaller opponent? What are the geopolitical and economic ramifications? Is there any way to end the fighting and go back to the status antebellum? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine from an American point of view safely thousands of miles away.
As people mourn the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, it is unclear whether the monarchy will be able to remain relevant moving forward. After all, Charles III has a much lower approval rating in the UK than his mother. Since the throne exists largely at the pleasure of the people, will a less popular monarch lead to less support for the monarchy as a whole? How much longer will the British taxpayer be willing to pay, directly or indirectly, for the royal family? Basically, can the monarchy survive? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the future of the British monarchy and the gift shop at Buckingham Palace.
With the wave of a wand, billions in student loan debt will be wiped away. How is this possible and what will the impact be? While this sounds great, every action has consequences. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss how this student loan debt relief will impact everything from consumer confidence and elections, to inflation and the soaring cost of college.
Never before in history have people shared so much information with so many people, knowingly and unknowingly. Every social media post contains information that companies dissect in order to market more effectively to you. While that might sound harmless enough, most people wouldn’t share as much with people they know as they do with, say, Facebook. If all of that data is out there, will someone use it against you? This week Sam, Courtney, and John discuss how much information social media platforms have on users and what their responsibility is. Or do they have any at all?
How is the current energy crisis impacting investor behavior around the world? Can Europe escape the economic corner it backed itself into with its energy policies? Will the winter be extra cold this year? Or will the Russians turn on the spigot if the Europeans give Moscow the green light? Could it be the US, despite all of its problems, still the best place for an absolute return? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the continued turmoil in the global energy industry and what it means for domestic investors and consumers.
As the political season starts to heat up, candidates will likely discuss inequalities in our society. The difference between male and female paychecks will undoubtedly be a topic of discussion. It often is. However, do all the studies on the subject compare apples to apples? Is there an inherent bias in the system? Do employers knowingly pay males more simply because of their gender? Why do female workers tend to fall behind their male counterparts? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss gender wage inequality and the potential causes of it. Will the men be able to make a decent case to Courtney? Or will she run them out of town?
Like much of the last 24 months, recent economic data has been strange. How can the economy be slowing down and employers still not able to find workers? What is keeping people from going back into the workforce? Is it a generational issue or an inflection point in the US economy? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss the large numbers of jobs available despite two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
The Mega Millions jackpot is one of the largest in history. People across the country are gobbling up tickets and dreaming about what they would do if they won. However, is it worth the money? After all, the chances of winning the jackpot at 1 in 302.5 million. So, is playing the lottery hope, fantasy or foolishness? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the Mega Millions jackpot and what they would do, if anything, if they were the lucky winner.
The Mega Millions jackpot is one of the largest in history. People across the country are gobbling up tickets and dreaming about what they would do if they won. However, is it worth the money? After all, the chances of winning the jackpot at 1 in 302.5 million. So, is playing the lottery hope, fantasy or foolishness? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the Mega Millions jackpot and what they would do, if anything, if they were the lucky winner.
The headlines suggest the world is falling apart at the seams. From the ongoing war in Ukraine to economic crises in many emerging economies to increased tension in the South China Sea, it seems the US is stumbling from one problem to another. However, did we get to this point and what should the US do about today’s angst? Is it even our problem any longer, and should we let the rest of the world deal with its own problems?In today’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the current global turmoil, America’s role in helping create it, and what we can do to solve it.
With inflation currently at 40-year highs, there is no shortage of explanations why this has happened. Folks have blamed Russia and Vladimir Putin. Fingers have wagged at supply chain inefficiencies. People have wrung their hands over our handling of the COVID pandemic. Then, there are those who argue corporations are taking advantage of inflation by gouging customers in order to goose profits. They call this “greedflation.” However, aren’t companies supposed to maximize their profits? This week Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the concept of greedflation and whether or not such a thing even exists.
A recent Gallup poll suggests Americans have lost confidence in most major public and private institutions. While this has been a long-term trend, it seems to have accelerated significantly over the last several years. Folks don’t trust the government, organized religions, big business, you name it. But why? It is a lack of leadership OR is how we consume information the culprit?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the current crisis in confidence gripping the country. Is there anything we can do to reverse the trend?
With inflation eating away at consumers’ wallets and pocketbooks, how has our morning routine changed? Are we still using the same products to help make us look presentable in public and the workplace? At what point does the average American worker, especially females, admit defeat to rising prices and decide to make changes to how they get ready? Is there a point? Or does getting ready provide a boost to mental health in today’s increasingly topsy-turvy world?In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the soaring price of looking good. Will they trade perspectives about how much is truly necessary to spend on getting ready?
Cryptocurrencies have fallen dramatically over the last several months. Is the beginning of the end for the things? Or is it the end of the beginning? Are there are generational considerations when determining whether crypto is going to be an ongoing asset class or is it just a flash in the pan? Albeit a very hot one. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss how cryptocurrencies have lost their luster. Will they ever get it back? Does age have anything to do with it?
Temperatures are higher, and storms seem a little more severe. Does this keep you up at night? Do you have eco-angst? The WHO says a lot of people do, but is this really the case? If so, what can we do about it? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the growing trend of eco-anxiety and ways to combat it. Are there generational differences, and who gets thrown under the bus in the end?
As employers continue to struggle to find employees, concepts like a 4-day workweek are getting attention in order to attract workers. How practical is this trend? How good is it for the employer? How good is it for the employee? Will it produce the desired results and become the default for workers in the future? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the concept of the 4-day workweek. Are there any generational differences? Or is everyone in lockstep?
This week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted she was wrong last year when she said inflation wasn’t a concern. While a surprising admission from an Administration official, this was a statement of the obvious. However, shouldn’t we have all seen inflation coming down the pike? After all, creating money out of thin air and throwing it at the economy is usually a good way to goose prices. So, what’s next? This week, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the now non-transitory inflation. Just what were the causes, and how long will it last?
Politically popular mandates often, it not almost always, seem to have ironic economic consequences. So, why do we keep doing them? Is there something about the nebulous “need to do something” which trumps economic common sense? Or is it deeper than that? Are the people making serious economic decisions and policy really qualified to do so? After all, what is their incentive? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney and John discuss how some recent government mandates with good intentions around the world have produced horrible results.
With all the supply chain issues and distribution problems, at what point do American companies start to produce more products in the United States? Surely, they have learned their lesson over the last 12 months. Also, what premium will American consumers pay to know the product they want will be made in America and available on demand? Finally, what will it take to get more factories open in more areas of the US? This week Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the prospects of the US onshoring more production after years of outsourcing.
With all of the red ink in the markets thus far, what are investors supposed to do? Should they continue to “buy the dip,” even though that doesn’t seem to be working? Is this because all news seems to be bad news? Is that why investors have been throwing the proverbial baby out with the bath water? How do investors stay calm and carry on? This week Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the frustrating start to the year and how to best avoid making a mistake. The problem is, while simple, the best advice is almost impossible to follow.
With all the news in Washington about forgiving student loan debt, what does this all mean for the economy, society, and the future of higher education? Who really benefits? Who is hurt? What are the likely outcomes? What is the reasoning behind doing this at this point in time? Finally, who is to blame for this mess? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the debate about “forgiving” some portion of student debt. Is this a good thing? Or does it make the situation worse?
While finding quality childcare has always been a challenge, it has become increasingly more so since the start of the pandemic. This has had a depressing impact on the labor force participation rate, especially women. It seems like the government is helping out everyone but working moms. Why? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, the gang talks about the rising cost of childcare and potential solutions.
With available homes few and far between and mortgage rates on the rise, fears of the demise of the housing market are increasing. This naturally begs the question, how long can this go on? Will the housing market crash again? Will a decline in housing lead to a financial crisis like it did in 2008? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the differences between then and now, and what a downturn could mean.
The dreaded word recession has recently been rearing its ugly head in the news media. Is the US doomed to have one in the near future? If so, just how bad will it be? As bad as 2008, when it seemed like the world was going to end? Or will it be like some other recessions, which we didn’t even know about until after the fact? Does the definition of recession vary from household to household? In this week’s episode Sam, Courtney, and John talk about the difference between perceptions and reality when it comes to economic recessions.
Although it is less than 2 months old, the war in Ukraine seems to be one without end. A primary reason for that is outside of the Ukrainians themselves, it is hard to define what success is for everyone else. Even more, does the US have a moral obligation to step into the fray to avert and address war crimes? If so, why hasn’t it done so in other places? Further, what are Americans willing to take in order to stop the violence in Ukraine and elsewhere?
With higher prices hitting budgets the hardest in some 40 years, how are households adjusting? Is eating out at restaurants on the chopping block? Are the cooks in the kitchen willing to do a little extra work? Maybe giving up the alcohol at dinner? Giving up steaks for hot dogs? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss how higher prices are impacting how they spend at the grocery store. Are there generational differences?
Last year, it seems the infrastructure bill made all of the headlines. This year, where is it and where is the money? How did we get to a point where we have to borrow massive amounts to do what taxpayers have already been paying to do? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Courtney, Sam, and John discuss last year’s infrastructure bill/package, and try to answer the questions when, why, where, and how?
The price increases at the pump have become impossible to ignore. While it is easy to blame Vladimir Putin for your lighter wallet, is it completely fair? After all, this didn’t happen overnight. So, what has happened? Why has this happened? How much longer will the American consumer have to pay a fortune just to fill up their cars? What are people willing to give up to do so? Road trips? Date nights? This week Courtney, Sam, and John discuss the history behind the higher energy prices, and how they have, or might, impact spending patterns.
Due to the turmoil in eastern Europe, many commodity prices have soared. So much so, the cost of the materials in many US coins is now worth more than their face value. If it costs the government more money to make money, how much longer will it do so? Given the change in US consumer patterns, do consumers even want physical cash? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the prospects for a cashless society moving forward. Is it plausible? Is it practical?
With the world tightening its sanctions on Russia, how will the average Russian citizen respond? Also, is this mess what Vladimir Putin intended? The resistance from the Ukrainians themselves? The stiffer sanctions than after the 2014 annexation of Crimea? The isolation from the world, and the muted response from China? Certainly, this has to be a near worst-case scenario for the Russian leader, right? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John analyze the on-going conflict in eastern Europe, and discuss how things seem to have spiraled out of control for the Kremlin. Or have they?
This week, Russia announced its was formally recognizing two ‘breakaway’ provinces in Ukraine, and authorized the use of so-called Russian peacekeeping troops. As promised, the western powers announced some economic sanctions against Moscow and certain minions, but they arguably weren’t as severe as promised. Why would that be? And why has a coordinated response from the US and other major European powers been so difficult? Could it be Europe and Russia are more intertwined than Washington can appreciate? How will consumers in the US react to potentially higher energy prices due to this conflict?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent unrest in Canada, its causes and probable outcomes. This has made global headlines, because the Great White North isn’t exactly known for being a boiling cauldron of discontent. So, how did it come to this? Who is protesting and for what purpose? And, perhaps most importantly, why is this so interesting to so many people around the world? Is it an omen for other countries who continue to adopt Draconian measures in response to COVID19?
People, especially young people, are making money in ways many people in older generations don't quite understand. What exactly is NIL, and how will that benefit college athletes? How much money is there to be made, really? Who will make it? Also, what exactly is an influencer? What does it take to be one? How much does one make? And, most importantly, is all of this influencing and NIL here to stay? Will companies continue to shower money on these people, or are we simply going through a period of discovery to determine their actual value?
Although the sharing of ideas engenders economic activity and intellectual curiosity, there are many in our society who want to 'cancel out' people with whom they disagree. Recently, high-profile, liberal musical artists have attempted to cancel out podcaster Joe Rogan from the Spotify platform. To date, this hasn't worked, but why? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the harsh, economic realities of canceling people for their opinions.
It was pretty easy to make money in the stock market in 2021, just be in it. However, volatility has returned, in a big way, in January 2022, which has caught a lot of people flat-footed and questioning their risk tolerance. Is this fair? Is the sky falling? What should investors do? Is all heck about to break loose? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John analyze January's dismal stock returns and discuss what investors should do in their portfolios moving forward.
Recently, a constant in the headlines has been Russia building up its armed forces on its border with Ukraine. What is Moscow's true intention? How will the West respond? Is it willing to go to war to fight for Ukrainian sovereignty? Why should the US care, and what does it mean for the average American? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Courtney, Sam, and John discuss the recent imbroglio in Eastern Europe, and what it could mean for global affairs. Further, are there any generational differences in opinion on how the US should respond to Russian bellicosity?
With each new variant of the COVID19 virus, there seems to be a new set of rules and regulations. As Sam Clement has said, the "goalposts keep on changing." But are they, and how will this impact the spread of the virus THIS time around? Furthermore, how will the average American respond to yet another mandate and/or form of guidance? Did the first 1000+ work as desired? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John revisit the ongoing saga with the Omicron variant, and ask the important questions: why is this time really any different?
As we start the year, airlines are canceling flights in record numbers, store shelves are as empty as they have been in memory, prices are continuing to climb, and employers everywhere are complaining about staffing shortages. What's more, OSHA and the CDC continue to give guidance and proposed regulations that are getting confusing to the average American, let alone business owners. For example, recent quarantine guidance has gone from 10 to 5 days with little concrete explanation. So, who exactly making policy in the United States?
Did 2021 meet everyone's expectations? Or, in a lot of ways was it a repeat of 2020? Regardless, what does the future hold for the US economy and the markets? Inquiring minds want to know. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John talk about some of the biggest news items from this past year and make some predictions about the future.
Over the weekend, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) pretty much brought the Administration's "Build Back Better" bill to a grinding halt. Manchin said he couldn't justify the increase in spending in the face of continued inflation and fiscal imbalances. Not surprisingly, people on both sides of the political aisle were agog. However, should they have been? Should politicians represent their parties or their constituents? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss what happened and why with Joe Manchin and the ill-fated, BBB bill.
So-called smash & grab shoplifters have been getting an increased number of headlines, as have seemingly wanton acts of random violence. Are we in a crime wave death spiral? If so, what does that mean for economic growth? If not, why does it seem that way? Is the media making it out to be worse than it actually is? As we all know, the perception of crime is often worse than the actual crime itself.
At the end of 2020, everyone wondered what the "new normal" would be once things got back to some sense of normalcy in 2021. While this year has been anything but normal, have all of the predictions been correct? Have any? Is the technology here to stay? Or are we going back to the way things were? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss how the year has unfolded, and explain why some of the high flying stocks in 2020 have come back to Earth in 2021.
Recently, the new Omicron variant has been generating headlines around the world, leading many countries to restrict travel. Are the Draconian economic lockdowns of 2020 next? Or have we learned from the past, understanding much of those mandates didn't stop the spread of the virus as much as throttled economic activity. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the newest of the COVID-19 variants, and ask the question: "is this deja vu all over again?"
Pundits, politicians, and analysts tend to focus on flashpoints like China, Russia, and the southern border. However, one of the most deadly episodes in our nation's history tends to get relatively short shrift: the opioid crisis. What is the cause and what is the cure? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Courtney, Sam, and John discuss this ongoing crisis and its impact on both the economy and US society.
The Chinese have been flying warplanes in Taiwanese airspace, and testing hypersonic nuclear missiles. The Russians have amassed troops at the Ukrainian border, and have recently demonstrated their satellite destroying capabilities. The Iranians have been buzzing US warships with drones and helicopters. Lukashenko in Belarus is causing a boarder clash with Poland. With all of these provocations and potential brushfires, what is America's current will to go to war when the definition of success is unclear?
There have been a lot of stories about the potential for shortages this holiday shopping season, and consumers are getting used to certain products being out of stock. How has this impacted current spending, and what does it mean for the upcoming peak retail time of the year? Is fear driving US consumer behavior or not? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss their holiday shopping plans, and whether they think it will be merry.
This week, the UN tried to shame the world’s billionaires to help it “solve world hunger.” Elon Musk called the organization’s bluff by saying he would gladly peel off the desired, of him, $6 billion if it would provide ‘open accounting.’ As of now, the UN hasn’t accepted the challenge. This begs the question: is the situation with Musk and the UN really any different than the average American’s dealings with their government? Would US taxpayers be willing to pay more if only they knew exactly how the money was to be spent? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss whether taxes or transparency is the real issue when the government asks for more.
No matter where you look, everything seems to be more expensive, from gasoline to mayonnaise to day care. Are the price increases here to stay and what are the causes? Supply too little? Demand to great? Too much cash floating about? Who is being impacted the most? Is it families? Newlyweds? Or empty nesters? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John dissect the situation and discuss how inflation has impacted them.
The stock market has produced outsized returns over the last several years. As a result, stocks represent a greater percent of overall US household wealth than they ever have. How has this happened? How have Americans become comfortable with the historically most risky asset class being so important on the country’s collective balance sheet? Is it technology? Is it generational? Is it something else? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the stock market’s increased importance on the lives of the average American.
There is little argument that social media has changed how we live our lives and conduct business. However, is it for the good or the bad? Or is it a little bit of both? If so, what should the government do to mitigate the negative aspects of social media? Is that even a role the government should play? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, Courtney, and John discuss the positive and negative aspects of social media, and whether it is overall a good or bad thing.
What exactly are employees looking for in an employer? What are employers doing to keep their workers happy? Is the recent focus on work/life balance here to stay? Or was it always there? Do different generations expect different things out of their job? These are some of the questions Courtney, Sam, and John try to answer in this week’s Trading Perspectives.
China’s Lehman Brothers? There has been a lot of news about the recent financial troubles of Chinese property developer Evergrande. The company is saddled with billions upon billions in debt which it is highly unlikely to repay in full. Could a potential collapse cause ripple effects across the global financial system? Will the next great global crisis come from China, as opposed to the United States? If not, what does the current situation with the company tell us about the way President Xi and Beijing are running the company? Is it business as usual. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, our old friends John and Sam try to make some sense of the mess for Courtney who, as always, has some questions.
This week Trading Perspectives welcomes Courtney Truss to the show. As an associate at Oakworth Capital Bank and working alongside John and Sam, she brings another generational and demographical perspective to the show. In this episode, John, Sam, and Courtney discuss the vaccine mandate and how it might effect employees and employers economically and personally.
On September 14th, Californians will go to the polls to decide whether to ‘recall’ Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor in a very Democratic state. The first question is: why do this? The second is: what will be accomplished? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the California recall to determine whether it is a valiant effort or a waste of time.
Every year, we get the same old warning about the depletion of the so-called Social Security Trust Fund at some date in the future. This year, the experts think it will be 2034. But will it really? After all, Social Security is as almost sacred on Capitol Hill. So, what do a Gen Xer and a Gen Zer think about the impending doom of America’s favorite government program? This week John and Sam discuss what the future of Social Security will look like moving forward.
Sometimes, the weather report is the most important financial news. This goes especially for catastrophic storms which detrimentally impact economic activity. So, how will Ida affect the US economy? Will it be as bad as the winter storms in Texas earlier in the year? Also, why do businesses often get back to normal, or some sense of normal, faster than public services? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam literally talk about the weather and how it has the potential to change the economy.
Ever since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal government has flooded the world with debt and the Federal Reserve has gobbled it up. Currently, the Fed is buying up to $120 billion in debt securities each month with money that didn’t previously exist. Now that the financial system is flush with cash, if not drowning it in, how much longer should the Fed continue to stimulate the system? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the impact the Fed has had on the price of money in the US economy and what the potential ramifications are IF and when the Fed stops financing Washington’s spending problem.
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the recent happenings in Afghanistan, and try to make sense of one of the bigger black eyes the US has gotten in years. Are there any generational differences of opinion when assessing the debacle that has unfolded in Kabul? Are there any takeaways? Any lessons to be learned? What does it all mean in the grand scheme of things and, most importantly, our pocketbooks?
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy currently has over 10 million available jobs. Where are they? What kind of jobs are they? Why aren’t more people taking them? Is it really a good thing to have that many job openings? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam analyze the current state of the labor markets, and try to understand the mismatch between the supply of jobs in the economy and worker demand for them.
What if they threw an Olympics and no one cared? Although the games are comfortably winning their respective time slots, viewership is significantly lower in both absolute and relative terms compared to recent Summer Olympics. What are the reasons? Change in viewer behavior? Confusion about schedules? Lack of fans at the live events? An overall dearth of team spirit? Generational differences? All of this and more? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss why interest in the Tokyo Olympics is as low as it is. Let’s just say, it has been a perfect storm.
COVID-19 cases are again on the rise and vaccinations are falling. Will this recent spike in the Delta Variant lead to business and education lockdowns like last year? Would the US economy be able to rebound if that happens? Also, who isn’t getting vaccinated, and why? With all the data the government has, it should be able to target areas of weakness instead of implementing blanket policies which could crush economic activity.
Recent studies suggest reducing the workweek might actually increase worker productivity. So, is it a good idea to ease the time constraints on workers in order for them to produce more? It might seem counterintuitive, but the results don’t lie. Or do they? After all, do employers pay for output or time? That is the question. This week, John and Sam tackle the so-called 4-day work week to see whether it is good for the economy or much ado about nothing. Gen Z versus Gen X.
With stubbornly low interest, is the United States in danger of becoming the next Japan? A zombie economy characterized by persistent low growth and puny asset returns? While there are similarities between the two countries, the differences more than outweigh them. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John analyze Japan’s “lost decades” in order to make the case the United States will NOT become the next Japan.
Are the uptick in violent crime across the country and the Defund the Police movement correlated? Regardless, what message does ‘defunding’ your local law enforcement agencies send to outsiders? Is that good for economic growth? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John analyze what potentially happens when you defund the police in your area.
One aspect of the American Dream is the next generation will be better off than the previous one. Up until now, this has been the case in the United States. However, will it be so in the future? With all of societal unrest and distrust of one another, what do a Gen Z and a Gen X think about the future? What has the potential to change their forecast? In this week’s Trading Perspective, John and Sam tackle the burning question: is life getting better in the USA?
Last week, 2 major meetings took place. One was the FOMC Meeting and the other was the much-anticipated Summit between Putin and Biden. Despite how widely anticipated these two meetings were, neither one of them produced any major news. If these two events weren’t able to move the markets, what did? What was the unexpected news that caused investors to lose billions of dollars?
Is wearing a mask un-American? It seems the simple act of wearing a covering over your nose and mouth in public places has become a political issue. Those on the extreme far right say masks are affronts to their personal liberty, whereas people on the far left claim they in the ‘public good.’ So, what is it? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the issue of mask wearing, and its impact on liberty and the American economy.
Whenever investors take things to extremes, it seems we always hear the excuse: "this time is different." While that may or may not be case, what should investors do when this becomes the prevailing wisdom? Are things really that different or are we using the new difference as rationale to behave stupidly? In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam take a look at some recent, and some not so recent, times when "this time really wasn't as different as we really thought."
This year, Americans have heard the phrase ‘supply-chain bottlenecks’ more times than they can count, and they have noticed the inflation these bottlenecks can bring. However, will this inflation last? Or is it transitory, as Fed Chairman has told the markets over and over again? Should we believe the Fed or should we believe our eyes? Do we even have to ask the question? This week John and Sam discuss some of the causes of the recent uptick in prices and what the potential for long-term inflation actually is.
A common argument for cryptocurrencies is their relative limited supply should help keep a lid on inflation. However, is this completely true? Also, is inflation always a bad thing? To that end, is a limited money supply really a good thing? This week, John and Sam analyze the role cryptocurrencies play, or maybe don’t play, in inflation, and discuss the long-term impacts of inflation on economic activity.
As wealthier, more economically developed, countries emerge from the COVID pandemic, much of the emerging world remains mired in the outbreak. This has the potential to cause ‘the rich to get richer, and the poor to get poorer.’ What can wealthy countries do, if anything, to help keep the situation from getting worse? What can poorer countries do to lift themselves up? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam analyze the situation and discuss some potential solutions, some new and others that are ‘tried and true.’
There are more job openings than ever in the US economy, but people don’t seem to want them. The data suggests the nation’s unskilled and semi-skilled hourly workforce isn’t going back to work the way you would expect now that local economies are reopening. So, what is happening here? Since human beings are typically rational and respond to economic incentives, there has to be a monetary reason why folks aren’t showing up for work. What is it?
The Administration has great plans to spend a lot of money, money the Treasury doesn’t have. So, it has to figure out some way to pay for it all, or at least make a dent in it. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the President’s plan to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Are increasing corporate taxes a good way of raising the cash? If so, what is the optimal rate? If not, why?
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, John and Sam wrap on their 2-part series on the status of the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. If there aren’t any other major, traditional currencies that can currently challenge the Almighty Dollar, could cryptocurrencies? Where do they stand in the currency markets and investors’ portfolios? #USdollar, #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin, #reserves
The US dollar has enjoyed a long run as the world’s primary reserve currency. This has been due to the nation’s economic strength, the liquidity and transparency of its financial markets, and American adherence to the rule of law and strong individual property rights. However, will the global supply of dollars due to our massive deficit spending and trade imbalances ultimately swamp demand? What are the alternatives, and what does this mean for the US economy?
If we know the common characteristics of poverty and the impact of economic disenfranchisement on a societal, how do we find a solution? First, we need to agree on a goal, that all Americans should have economic opportunity. Second, we must think ‘outside the box’ and be willing to do things differently in order to get better results. Third, we have to push traditional politics to the side.
Just because a country has wide spread income inequality, doesn’t necessarily mean there is no economic opportunity. If the opportunity is there, then what’s the problem? Usually the problem arises when people feel like they can’t get ahead and the system is working against them. What causes people to feel this way and what are the largest impacts made by income inequality on society?
Nobody likes income inequality, yet it continuously gets a lot of press. People say the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. But why? In Part 1 of our Income Inequality series, John and Sam discuss the root causes and key trends of income inequality in the United States?
They say the cure is simple, but the fix is ugly. Usually, a recession is due to a decrease in demand relative to the growth in supply. Has the pandemic decreased the need for full time employees? Who was impacted the most by the pandemic and who will ultimately make it out unscathed?
Over the past 30 years, we have seen 3 other events that, at the time, had a similar feel. The first was Y2K, the second was in the aftermath of 9/11, and lastly the 2008 financial collapse. With the hindsight of time, we can now look back and see what predictions turned out to be true changes. This may give us the ability to view the COVID-19 pandemic in a bit of a different light.
When the dust settles, the smoke clears, and COVID-19 is finally in the rear-view mirror, the world’s geopolitical and economic landscapes will likely look different than they did leading into the pandemic. Some changes will simply be an acceleration in preexisting trends, others will be a complete surprise. What trends have we seen so far and what can we expect to see in the immediate future?
Overall economic strength has a major impact on equity valuations. When trying to determine the correct valuation for stocks, several different criteria are evaluated. What is that criteria? This past year has been a roller coaster. When we look back on the year what is the driving factor and what can we expect to see post pandemic?
The COVID-19 pandemic has changed how we live our lives and conduct business. However, what businesses and economic sectors will have to change the most in order to survive? In order to thrive as consumer behavior changes? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John review our predictions about what sectors could be impacted the most. Listen to this week’s episode to see how they did.
Many corporations have likely come to the realization that some people do not have to be in the office everyday. Many have shown to be just as productive working from home. But, does the remote work environment work for everyone? What are the pros and cons? Additionally, why are some on board with a full time remote work environment when other’s aren’t?
Part 1 of 7. Will we ever ‘get past’ COVID19? When we do, what will the new normal look like for society as a whole? We get this inquiry several times a day, if not more, and we wonder: how have the events over the past year changed us? Obviously, everyone will answer the question differently.
Congress just recently passed a new COVID-19 relief package coupled with $1.4 trillion spending bill. When AOC and Ted Cruz are both in agreement in saying they have not had enough time to read the bill before voting, is a sure sign that something is amiss. How much of it is relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic? Is $1.3 billion to Egypt really benefiting those that have struggled through the lockdowns? And lastly, can we expect it to stimulate economic recovery?
The recent Initial Public Offering (IPO) market has been red hot, with valuations stretching the imagination. Are the good times here to stay? Can companies like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Snowflake grow fast enough to command these prices? Or is it déjà vu all over again, as in the dot.com bubble?
Minimum wage is simply a price floor for labor. When the minimum wage is above the market clearing price there will be a surplus. Does the federal government have enough information to decide what the minimum wage should be on the local level? Perhaps the central government is not the best decisionmaker when it comes to spending our money.
In a recent conversation with a local federal reserve representative John made mention of how the pandemic has altered global supply chains. Many manufacturers have become all too reliant on China to be the supply house for the global economy. As we all know, putting all your eggs in one basket is generally not a good idea. Will businesses learn their lesson about becoming too dependent on one supplier?
After reading an article surrounding the truth of Thanksgiving, it seems that another holiday is now under attack. We all know that The First Thanksgiving was not as it was portrayed by our kindergarten teachers as we cut out paper turkeys from a tracing of our hands, so what is the point in debunking our nations traditions and mythology? At what point do we stop focusing on the negative aspects of our country’s history and focus on the positive adaptations that came out of it? When you think about why we celebrate Thanksgiving, is any good coming from all of this?
Recently multiple states and politicians have set strict guidelines on the Thanksgiving holiday. In response, many law enforcement agencies have said they simply can’t enforce them. As we have mentioned numerous times, there are 3 things needed for an effective economy. Two of those things are adherence to the rule of law and the rule of law can not be capricious. Should politicians be able to mandate how people spend their Thanksgiving holiday? Furthermore, what good is the rule of law if it’s capricious and won’t be enforced?
The election is still not over, but the financial markets seem to be breathing a sigh of relief. As of now, it Looks like the Republicans are going to hold onto the majority of the senate. Maybe the country is more purple than people were led to believe. What is it that investors like about this election? Does gridlock make the presidential election a little less valuable to investors?
This could be the most important election in history and people have 2 choices. There is no middle ground. If you look down either political party’s platform, most people are wondering where they fit in. What do most people want out of a presidential candidate and what would it be like if there were a third party that fell somewhere in between?
This week, Sam and John talk with noted author, lecturer, and essayist James Howard Kunstler (Jim) about why the world seems to be falling apart and what we can do about it. They discuss themes from Jim’s dystopian “World Made by Hand” series, and wonder if it could really happen in the United States today. Have our greed and monetary system pushed the envelope too far? Is there any turning back? Will John’s hard cider turn out okay? The answers to these and other questions are in this week’s Trading Perspectives podcast.
On Tuesday, Disney announced that they are going to focus on streaming their content moving forward. Many people are already using Disney Plus, Hulu, and other platforms, however Disney has always been a dominate production company. Now, they are going to vertically integrate and focus heavily on direct to consumer. Why hasn’t the company done this already? What does this mean for cable companies, the movie industry & live theater?
Although the economy hasn’t quite gotten back to where it was prior to the pandemic, it has rebounded pretty nicely. However, when you peel back enough layers of the onion and look under enough rocks, you get the impression it might be getting exhausted. Continued restrictions and partial lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus are inhibiting the free functioning of the economy. This is a problem now that a lot of the initial relief money is gone. So much so, Fed Chairman Powell has used the word ‘tragic’ to describe what could happen to the US economy if fiscal policy doesn’t change, and soon. Is it really that bad? John and Sam hash it out in today’s podcast.
Today is the day of the 1st presidential debate between Trump and Biden. Historically, perception has been a key factor in presidential debates. This year, people’s expectations seem to be slightly lower than they have been in the past. What is different about tonight’s debate and what are voters going to be looking for? Additionally, how much of an impact will it have on the election?
This week, Derek Waltchak with Shannon Waltchack, LLC joins us to talk about office space. Derek is a subject matter expert on Bitcoin, Blockchain and how those technologies are impacting the economy, specifically in commercial real estate. What can we expect to see in the office arena and what is the probable case scenario in 3-5 years? What about the future of retail? Lastly, Derek provides some insight into making smart real estate investments.
In the 2016 election, Hillary won the popular vote, yet Trump won the presidency. Many people felt the turnout was unfair and pushed to do away with the electoral college. On the flip side, the electoral college allows smaller states with lesser populations to be heard and ensures all American votes have some sort of relevancy. How did our founding fathers envision the election of our leaders? What is the purpose behind the electoral college? Lastly, is it still necessary today?
Fear sells. In world of pandemics, politics, and discontent, it’s reasonable to believe people may not be as confident as they seem. With all the negative news stories and social media posts, many are fearful of what the future will bring. Who is driving this fear? Is fear being sold to the public to stir up conflict? Is the media using fear as a tactic to get better ratings? If so, when is it necessary to stop buying in?
The NFL will be kicking off in the next couple of weeks, but professional sports ratings have shown to be significantly lower since the pandemic. In the past, sports have been a way to escape the problems of the world. Have professional sports players voicing their political opinions changed the way people feel about sports? Or perhaps, people have just found other things to do. Without the TV ratings and fans in the seats, will the NFL be able to reconnect with its audience and maintain the salaries currently being paid to players and staff?
When it comes to investing, an age-old question has been growth versus value. Over the past decade, growth has pretty consistently outperformed value. That begs the question, is value investing dead or have the lines just been blurred?
As we near the end of summer we have to wonder what the riots, protests, and disagreements are really about. Many people are upset about the President’s intervention on the local level when it comes to some of this discontent across the country. However, there are a lot of constraints on the President when it comes to the local level. What sort of powers does the President have when it comes to enforcing laws on the local level and when can that power be used? Should we make changes to the rule of law?
Government and Central Banks are flooding the world with money. Is all of this debt good for the economy or will it eventually lead to financial ruin? John & Sam discuss what happens when money is cheap and the world is heavily in debt.
We’ve recently heard that Jos. A. Banks, Brooke’s Brothers, and even Lord & Taylor have filed bankruptcy. However, it isn’t surprising now that dress codes are becoming increasingly more casual. A coat and tie is no longer a requirement and in some cases, could even be seen as intimidating to potential clients. Is the pandemic and remote work environment causing companies to be more concerned about output than attire? What effect will this new normal have on the retail industry?
The prices of silver and gold have spiked recently. Gold and silver have historically been methods of exchange and currency. It has really only been within the past several decades that the US dollar has not been backed by silver or gold. Is this recent rally caused by the weakening of the US dollar or investor’s need for store value?
Many residents across the country are leaving city centers and moving to suburban areas of town. Generally, the attraction to living in downtown areas is the cultural amenities. Access to restaurants, theaters, and various social attractions. What happens when the cultural amenities dry up or are not as accessible? It seems the attractiveness begins to fade. Was it the pandemic or the protests that made suburban life attractive again? Will a mass exodus out of city centers effect local economies? Should we expect to see the erosion of economic activity begin to take hold?
Tesla stock has been performing exceptionally well since the middle of last year. It is now is up over 40% in less than 2 weeks. The immediate thought is, what changed? But it doesn’t seem a lot has changed with Tesla over the past year, so why is their stock performing so well? When you look at the market capitalization of Tesla and compare it to other automobile manufacturers, the difference is astounding. Why is Tesla viewed so differently than other automobile manufacturers?
Harvard recently announced that all classes will remain online for the fall semester, yet tuition is staying the same. Given Harvard’s reputation, it is almost certain that other colleges will follow suit. How will this change the college experience for students? Will a zoom environment and the ability to record lectures change the way professors teach classes? Lastly, will an adjustment like this effect the value of the college degree?
Many states have recently announced an increase in Coronavirus cases. Some states have already started shutting down businesses again. In a consumer driven economy, shutting down establishments that employ people essentially takes consumers out of the equation one by one. Could this be the 2nd wave of COVID-19 or an extension of the first? Can the economy tolerate another shut down? Additionally, is the government going to be able to come up with more money to fund another PPP program or stimulus package?
What happens to the economy if & when all the relief packages expire this summer? Will the economy stay afloat or will it have to learn how to swim again? There has been some good economic news recently. The economy created a lot of jobs in May and US consumers spent a lot of money last month. But, on Monday, an often overlooked monthly report about mortgage delinquencies suggested we might not be out of the woods just yet.
The economic data has improved, but how good is it really? Is it too early to call for a V-shaped recovery? Or are the recent economic reports signs of good times to come? In this week’s podcast, Sam and John delve into some surprisingly strong data to try to determine the truth. After all, no one has ever seen an economic downturn like this was. So, how do you adequately predict what happens next?
With the recent riots and protests happening across the country, many people are pushing to defund police forces. Some want to transform police forces whereas others want to completely disband them. Dismantling law enforcement agencies will greatly impact the driving factors of a successful economy and it seems that the people behind the defund movement may not all be on the same page. What exactly does it mean to defund police forces? How was it done in the past and what impact will it have on society?
It’s no doubt that we’ve seen some absolutely terrible economic data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and now we are seeing riots and protests across the country. Yet somehow the markets keep going up. This is a very weird time for the US Economy as well as the Global Economy and it seems that these recent rallies in the market are fueled by liquidity and the fear of missing out. But what is the reality? Clearly the realities in the market are not the same as the realities on the ground. How long can this last and what’s next?
China is trying to exert increasingly great authority over the Hong Kong government and economy. For years it’s been one country 2 systems. We saw protests last year before the COVID-19 pandemic and Beijing probably does not need Hong Kong like it did 25 years ago. With the rest of the world focused on the pandemic, is it possible that China is trying to reinitiate their efforts to threaten the Asian financial markets? Is President Xi trying to divert attention from efforts to take over other small countries, like Taiwan?
In the last 2 months, America has lost decades worth of jobs. 2-3 million people a week are filing initial jobless claims. What does that mean for society in terms of future wage growth, mental health, divorce rates or crime rates? Businesses that are currently or planning to reopen will eventually adjust to operating on a lower employee base. So, how do we fix it? What can we do to minimize the impact?
This week’s episode features Stewart Welch, the Mayor of Mountain Brook, Alabama and Founder of the Welch Group. Although most people think they know how local governments work, Mayor Welch provides first hand insight into exactly how local municipalities work, where a majority of the revenue comes from, and the flow of communication from the state. What impact will this pandemic have on local economies and what are the 4 most important things you can do to help your community get back up and running?
Now on the 3rd stimulus package, people are starting to complain about the trillions of dollars the US Treasury is throwing on the economy. How are we going to pay for it? And what will happen with interest rates moving forward?
People have conflicting opinions on the reopening of economies. The reality is, local politicians are in a lose-lose situation. You open it up to soon, infections increase but if you don’t, economic structural damage will be inevitable. Local governments can’t print money. What happens if local governments run out of money? What impact will it have on communities? Economically speaking, is it realistic to keep local economies shut down with no money being spent until COVID-19 is non-existent?
COVID-19 and regime change? It could happen, as the coronavirus spreads throughout densely populated emerging economies. Do they have the capacity to test and treat the infected? Are those governments telling the truth? Will the local populations demand change? Or will this pandemic be just another obstacle in an otherwise difficult life?
Whether or not the amount of money spent on sports in reasonable or not, America puts a lot of money into sports and there are many tentacles to consider. From local restaurants in college towns to major television contracts with ESPN, many people and local economies will be effected by the cancellation of sports. What will happen to sports when COVID-19 finally loosens it’s grip on America? What effect will it have on the players, consumers, and the businesses dependent on fans?
We all keep hearing the phrase "eat local" from various delivery services such as Grub Hub, Door Dash, etc. and it shouldn't come as a shock to hear that many restaurants won't make it through the COVID-19 pandemic. Which restaurants will be at risk of being impacted the most? What factors will make or break these businesses? And lastly, what will the restaurant scene look like when we finally do come out of this?
All said, the stimulus package will be a good thing and we have seen a recent rally in the stock market. However, what people need to realize is that as long as the stock market is on lock down mode, we can throw as much money at it as we want but it’s still going to be bad for GDP. Ultimately it will be ok, but what is realistic when it comes to the timeline and impact of the US economy?
As the COVID-19 pandemic sets in the United States, many businesses are being forced to close their doors. How is the pandemic effecting the local pizzeria versus the Airlines? Outside of grocery stores and pharmacies, what qualifies as an essential business and who decides which businesses are worthy of a bailout package?
The markets didn’t respond well to the Federal rate cut on Sunday, schools are closing, major sporting events have been called off and toilet paper has become a hot commodity. Small shifts in behaviors have multiplied and people are in a state of panic. Realistically, we are probably looking at 2-3 weeks before COVID-19 really hits its peak in the US. Is that enough to derail the economy or will it just postpone growth until things settle down?
Some market experts have long maintained you can predict future economic growth by looking at interest rates and crude oil prices. Are today’s low rates and crude oil prices building a base for growth in the second half of the year or signaling something much more sinister?
After an awful week in the markets and the worst few days in DOW Jones history, John and Sam give an update on COVID-19 and how coronavirus fears are impacting the stock market. How much longer will this continue?
Recently, I have seen and read more about activists demanding ‘we’ shift to a plant-based diet. After all, hooved animals, of all varieties (but mostly assumed to be cattle), generate anywhere from 18-50% of the world’s greenhouse gases…depending on the source and report. So, what would the world look like if we no longer consumed animal protein? What if we ‘outlawed’ Elmer, Elsie, Clarabelle, and Ferdinand the Bull?
With the growing number of startup companies, the gig economy seems to be on the rise. Gig type employment has expanded from maids and the kid that cuts your grass to Instagram influencers to uber drivers. PayPal, Venmo and Zelle make it easy to compensate cash-in-hand types of jobs but ultimately result in an increase in unreported income. How is the gig economy affecting social security and Medicare? Is it good or bad for our country and the economy?
The Coronavirus has taken the stock market by storm over the past week as more and more cases pop up across the globe. Airlines are cancelling flights to and from parts of China and almost 200 American’s are under federal quarantine in California. How is this virus different from other contagious illnesses, such as the flu or tuberculosis? Is it China’s lack of transparency or is the market’s response to the virus truly warranted?
Last week, Geneva-based World Economic Forum held its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland where close to 3,000 of the world’s wealthiest, most powerful, and anointed, including an estimated 119 billionaires met to discuss climate change. In this episode, John and Sam discuss the difference in the men who built our country’s economy in the 19th century, and the wealthy and powerful of today’s world. Who are the people of the Business RoundTable and what legacy are they leaving behind compared to the Rockefeller’s, JP Morgan, or Henry Ford?
Science fiction is becoming the new reality. Last week, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovered its first Earth-size planet in its star's habitable zone that could potentially support human life. So, what else is out there that we don’t know about? Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and many other major players in the business community are already involved in the development of space technology, but when does Wall Street get involved? Will this discovery open up new investment opportunities?
On January 3rd, 2020 President Trump authorized the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Many have since made it clear that they are not in support of the US Military’s effort to eliminate the terrorist leader. One week later, stock prices are up and oil prices are down so what are people worried about? This week, John and Sam talk about the need for a draft, how Iran will respond and the technology behind the attack. With the technology today, will the United States ever need a draft again?