The Simple Handicap: Recent Episodes
Adam Chernoff
Adam Chernoff started The Simple Handicap in 2017 to keep bettors up to the minute with the movements in the NFL betting market. The daily podcast is endorsed by some of the largest bettors and listened to each morning in more than 25 countries around the world.
I joined Mitch and Pauly on Follow the Money to talk about which teams won and lost the NFL Schedule release.
It is NFL Schedule Release day! In this episode I will discuss which teams have it easiest, which teams have it hardest and answer questions about any teams schedule for the upcoming season.
The NFL schedule drops this week, and with it comes a flood of hot takes and analysis. Join me LIVE at 11am ET as I break down 5 of the most common narratives you’ll hear this week — and separate the predictive insights from the media noise. We’ll cut through the hype and look at what really matters when it comes to handicapping the schedule.
The RAS NFL Service is live for 2025! Join in now to take advantage of early bird pricing and benefits here: https://www.raspicks.com/order/nfl
Round 1 of the NFL Draft is complete, and I’m breaking it down with my honest thoughts and takeaways. I’ll walk through the key picks, trades, and trends that stood out — both the ones I expected and the ones that surprised me. You’ll hear my perspective on: – Where teams made sharp, value-driven moves – Picks that didn’t make much sense to me – How front offices revealed their long-term strategy – What the draft told us about league-wide thinking at premium positions – Early reflections on how the betting markets lined up with what we saw This isn’t a highlight reel — it’s a practical review through the lens of team building, betting context, and what really matters going forward.
Adam Chernoff delivers a professional, betting-focused 2025 NFL Mock Draft built for serious bettors and draft analysts. This is more than just team-player pairings — it’s a market-aware breakdown of how each pick aligns with betting odds, positional value, and front office tendencies.
📈 In-depth analysis of team needs, scheme fits, and draft capital
🧠 Insights based on league intel, betting markets, and prospect evaluations
🗂️ Full first-round projection with commentary on trade possibilities
Perfect for bettors tracking draft props, sharp fans looking for an edge, and professionals studying the decision-making logic behind each selection.
You should never be betting NBA and NHL Playoffs at -110. Instead, consider playing at Bet105 where you can et -105 and -106 sides and totals. Learn more here: https://btone.servclick1move.com/?mid=253188_1487328
Want to keep up with NFL content this entire offseason? Sign up for the free newsletter at: http://www.footballbettors.com
Have you tried OddsLogic? It's the best live odds comparison product: https://www.oddslogic.com/?ref=ras
Adam Chernoff updates the changes in odds for all draft position props between open last week and now.
I read through 104 pages of anonymous comments from NFL scouts and pulled out the most noteworthy comments about NFL Draft bets. Obviously NFL scouts cannot bet on the draft, and this video is NOT implying that they are. This video compares anonymous comments from scouts to current odds to imply how they might bet on it, if they were able to do so with the intention of providing an alternative to coach or gm commentary analysis.
I read through 104 pages of anonymous comments from NFL scouts and pulled out the most noteworthy comments about NFL Draft bets. Obviously NFL scouts cannot bet on the draft, and this video is NOT implying that they are. This video compares anonymous comments from scouts to current odds to imply how they might bet on it, if they were able to do so with the intention of providing an alternative to coach or gm commentary analysis.
Adam Chernoff analyzes the initial wave of opening player props for the NFL Draft.
Want to bet on these props? Go here: bit.ly/rasbol
Adam Chernoff goes through each NFC Team discussing how they may use their first round pick and gives and update on the odds for each.
Adam Chernoff goes through each AFC Team discussing how they may use their first round pick and gives and update on the odds for each.
Welcome! 0:00
AFC East 4:10
AFC North 11:41
AFC South 19:59
AFC West 27:50
Questions 37:30
Kevin Cole joined the show to break down his offseason Improvement Index, a data-driven tool used to evaluate how NFL rosters have improved (or declined) year-over-year. His work at UnexpectedPoints.com has become must-read material for analytically-minded fans, bettors, and even NFL front office staff. Here are the key insights from our conversation:
What is Unexpected Points?
Kevin describes the site as catering to the "nerdy, numberier football fan." His content draws from past experience at PFF and DFS sites like RotoGrinders, focusing on analytics that aren't always directly tied to betting or fantasy, but absolutely inform both. In-season, he does deep game reviews and quarterback analysis. In the offseason, he shifts toward roster value, draft strategy, and team improvement projections.
How the Improvement Index Works
- Core concept: The Index projects a team’s upcoming season based on the prior year’s roster, then adjusts for offseason changes using a plus-minus metric similar to the NBA.
- Player value is measured using EPA-based on/off-field impact, smoothed through clustering of similar players.
- Participation data (i.e., snap counts) is used to weight contributions, with additional considerations for injury risk, coordinator changes, and scheme tendencies.
- Point differential: Each team has a point differential in the index. A +43 improvement doesn’t mean the Patriots will score 43 more points. It means their projected point differential is 43 points better than if they had kept their 2024 roster intact. That’s worth about 1.3 wins this year.
Roster Modeling Nuance
- Rotational players are harder to model, so Kevin smooths out usage based on prior snaps and coaching history.
- Fullbacks, centers, and low-snap positions get context-specific adjustments depending on scheme and replaceability.
- Coaching changes don’t radically shift the projection unless it’s a QB or team-level philosophy shift.
Team-Level Highlights
- Patriots: The biggest gainers, with upside tied to improved depth and variance at QB. Diggs only ranks as their 5th most valuable addition.
- Bears: Interior OL upgrades (Jackson, Dolman) don't rate as highly, but the total picture (especially adding Joe Thuney) is strong.
- Panthers: Ranked 3rd in improvement. Key reason? They didn’t lose much valuable talent, and the draft well based on surplus value.
- Browns: Gained ~5 points mostly from marginal improvements at QB (Pickett vs. projected backups). Still volatile due to QB uncertainty.
- Raiders: Geno Smith is a clear upgrade at QB, but the rest of the roster is roughly flat. Some natural regression expected after underperforming last year.
- 49ers: Losses overhyped due to player reputation rather than projected value. Comp picks help long-term roster strength.
- Jets: Show significant drop-off. Fields isn’t rated as an upgrade over Rodgers, and they lost valuable supporting pieces like Davante Adams.
- Seahawks: Metcalf loss hurts more than Kupp helps. Darnold is a mid-tier projection (QB18–25 range), though he did flash top-5 efficiency last year.
- Eagles/Chiefs: Bottom tier in improvement, largely due to difficulty sustaining elite rosters. Kevin notes he had Ravens and Bills power-rated higher than the Chiefs pre-Super Bowl.
Undervalued Teams?
- Colts: Slightly improved, with potential upside from Anthony Richardson or even Daniel Jones (yes, really).
- Browns: Again undervalued in the betting market due to lingering QB pessimism, despite a strong supporting cast.
What’s Next from Kevin?
Expect more work pre-draft and post-draft:
- Updated Improvement Index
- “Analytical big board” using surplus draft value
- Post-draft evaluations factoring positional value, trade value, and reach vs. value metrics
Follow James all season for UFL updates at https://pfnewsroom.com/author/james-larsen/ and on X @JamesLarsenPFN
Follow Cody for all his UFL content this season at www.establishtherun.com and on X @cmain7
NFL Free Agency is in full swing! Which teams made the best moves? Which ones flopped? And most importantly—how do these signings impact betting markets? Join me, Adam Chernoff, for a live Q&A where I'll break down the biggest signings, grade team performances, and answer your questions about futures, win totals, and more.
Football Bettors newsletter: http://www.footballbettors.com
Offseason: 0:00
Deebo Samuel traded to Washington: 2:45
Sam Darnold tagged by Minnesota: 8:40
Matthew Stafford given a raise by LA: 12:43
Tee Higgins tagged by Cincinnati: 16:59
Justin Fields expected to be QB1 in Pittsburgh: 22:31
Davante Adams released by New York: 26:23
Saquon Barkley extended by Philadelphia: 28:38
Jonah Jackson & Joe Thuney added by Chicago: 29:27
Newsletter: 35:10
Seattle Seahawks run game increase: 38:21
Washington Commanders in 2025: 48:29
The final episode of the season is here! Super Bowl betting preview with my final score prediction and favorite prop bet.
The NFL Divisional Round is here, In this video, sports bettor Adam Chernoff breaks down each matchup of the weekend's most anticipated games. We’ll take a deep dive into the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens, analyzing team strengths, key players, and what to expect from each matchup.
Divisional Weekend! (0:00)
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (2:54)
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (12:05)
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (27:46)
LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (41:07)
Questions (51:23)
Adam Chernoff reacts to opening point spreads and totals for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Adam Chernoff reacts live to opening odds of NFL Week 18 and provides thoughts on each game.
Sports bettor Adam Chernoff talks about everything you need to know to get ready for betting Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. From picks, predictions and game analysis to covering every point spread, total and important props, this video has you covered with insights that will help you make the most of this slate of games.
Sports bettor Adam Chernoff talks about everything you need to know to get ready for betting Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season. From picks, predictions and game analysis to covering every point spread, total and important props, this video has you covered with insights that will help you make the most of this slate of games. Week 14!
Week 14! (0:00)
Green Bay @ Detroit (1:33)
Atlanta @ Minnesota (6:39)
New Orleans @ NY Giants (10:23)
Jacksonville @ Tennessee (13:40)
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (18:06)
Carolina @ Philadelphia (22:47)
NY Jets @ Miami (28:36)
Seattle @ Arizona (32:38)
Buffalo @ LA Rams (42:46)
Chicago @ San Francisco (46:30)
LA Chargers @ Kansas City (53:10)
Recapping everything that happened in NFL Week 13 and reacting live to the opening odds of NFL Week 14 as they hit the board.
Keeping you up to date with all of the changes in betting lines, point spreads, totals and odds in the NFL. The Simple Handicap Podcast with Adam Chernoff for Thursday November 14th, 2024.
#nfl #nflpicks #nflodds #nflbetting
Keeping you up to date with all of the changes in betting lines, point spreads, totals and odds in the NFL. The Simple Handicap Podcast with Adam Chernoff for Wednesday November 13th, 2024.
#nfl #nflpicks #nflodds #nflbetting #nflpredictions #nflfootball #nflweek11
Recapping NFL Week 10 and reacting to NFL Week 11 opening odds.
Welcome! (0:00)
Carolina 20 - NY Giants 17 (2:22)
Buffalo 30 - Indianapolis 20 (4:13)
Minnesota 12 - Jacksonville 7 (7:18)
Pittsburgh 28 - Washington 27 (9:15)
New Orleans 20 - Atlanta 17 (17:38)
Kansas City 16 - Denver 14 (20:52)
San Francisco 23 - Tampa Bay 20 (24:22)
New England 19 - Chicago 3 (27:53)
LA Chargers 27 - Tennessee 17 (30:43)
Arizona 31 - NY Jets 6 (32:54)
Philadelphia 34 - Dallas 6 (36:58)
Week 11 Opening Lines (40:11)
Adam Chernoff reacts to NFL Week 9 opening betting lines and recaps NFL Week 8.
1-2 Week 8: (0:00) Detroit 52 - Tennessee 14 (1:20) Cleveland 29 - Baltimore 24 (3:49) Green Bay 30 - Jacksonville 27 (7:23) Houston 23 - Indianapolis 20 (10:17) Atlanta 31 - Tampa Bay 26 (12:59) Washington 18 - Chicago 15 (15:14) New England 25 - NY Jets 22 (18:40) Buffalo 31 - Seattle 10 (21:28) LA Chargers 26 - New Orleans 8 (25:01) Philadelphia 37 - Cincinnati 17 (27:00) Kansas City 27 - Las Vegas 20 (31:00) Denver 28 - Carolina 14 (34:06) Week 9 Openers: (42:00)
Pardon the time change (0:00) 49ers @ Seahawks (1:20) Jaguars v Bears (6:02) Commanders @ Ravens (11:47) Cardinals @ Packers (15:15) Texans @ Patriots (19:40) Buccaneers @ Saints (25:12) Browns @ Eagles (30:44) Colts @ Titans (32:56) Chargers @ Broncos (39:11) Steelers @ Raiders (43:28) Falcons @ Panthers (46:09) Lions @ Cowboys (49:37) Bengals @ Giants (56:19) Bills @ Jets (1:02:08)
The Simple Handicap for Monday October 7th, 2024 1-0 Sunday (0:00) Vikings 23 - Jets 17 (2:38) Bears 36 - Panthers 10 (6:32) Ravens 41 - Bengals 38 (10:16) Texans 23 - Bills 20 (14:58) Jaguars 37 - Colts 34 (21:09) Dolphins 15 - Patriots 10 (25:24) Commanders 34 - Browns 13 (27:58) Broncos 34 - Raiders 18 (33:33) Cardinals 24 - 49ers 23 (36:18) Packers 24 - Rams 19 (40:30) Giants 29 - Seahawks 20 (44:08) Week 6 Openers Reaction: (48:29)
Tough Week5 : (0:00)
Buccaneers @ Falcons: (3:28)
Jets @ Vikings (8:37)
Panthers @ Bears (17:59)
Ravens @ Bengals (22:52)
Bills @ Texans (27:01)
Colts @ Jaguars (30:42)
Dolphins @ Patriots (38:18)
Browns @ Commanders (42:27)
Raiders @ Broncos (54:18)
Cardinals @ 49ers (57:51)
Packers @ Rams (1:03:48)
Giants @ Seahawks (1:09:05)
Cowboys @ Steelers (1:13:16)
Saints @ Chiefs (1:18:57)
Adam recaps Week 4 and looks forward to Week 5 opening lines.
Great Week! (0:00) ATL 26 - NO 24 (3:00) IND 27 - PIT 24 (6:28) HOU 24 - JAX 20 (10:06) MIN 31 - GB 29 (12:49) CIN 34 - CAR 24 (16:22) CHI 24 - LAR 18 (19:15) DEN 10 - NYJ 9 (23:07) TB 33 - PHI 16 (26:25) WSH 42 - ARZ 14 (28:18) SF 30 - NE 13 (32:19) LV 20 - CLE 16 (34:43) KC 17 - LAC 10 (37:10) Week 5 Opening Odds (42:59)
Week 4 Livestream Preview from YouTube:
Cowboys @ Giants: 00:00 - 07:08 Saints @ Falcons: 07:08 - 10:30 Steelers @ Colts: 10:30 - 13:05 Jaguars @ Texans: 13:05 - 21:41 Vikings @ Packers: 21:41 - 25:55 Bengals @ Panthers: 25:55 - 30:14 Rams @ Bears: 30:14 - 38:50 Broncos @ Jets: 38:50 - 42:16 Eagles @ Buccaneers: 42:16 - 46:30 Commanders @ Cardinals: 46:30 - 49:25 Patriots @ 49ers: 49:25 - 54:46 Browns @ Raiders: 54:46 - 56:55 Chiefs @ Chargers: 56:55 - 1:00:26 Bills @ Ravens: 1:00:26 - 1:05:27 Titans @ Dolphins: 1:05:27 - 1:06:36 Seahawks @ Lions: 1:06:36 - 1:10:52 Questions: 1:10:52 - 1:20:03
Recap of Week 3 and live reaction to Week 4 opening lines.
(2:06) Chargers 10 - Steelers 20 (4:04) Bears 16 - Colts 21 (7:33) Texans 7 - Vikings 34 (9:50) Giants 21 - Browns 15 (12:14) Eagles 15 - Saints 12 (18:04) Broncos 26 - Buccaneers 7 (21:01) Packers 30 - Titans 14 (23:10) Panthers 36 - Raiders 22 (25:03) Dolphins 3 - Seahawks 24 (27:38) Lions 20 - Cardinals 13 (30:12) Ravens 28 - Cowboys 25 (31:58) 49ers 24 - Rams 27 (34:22) Week 4 Opening Lines Reaction
https://www.youtube.com/live/b2Bljl8Xzvg
Patriots @ Jets 00:00 - 04:04
Chargers @ Steelers: 04:04 - 07:20
Bears @ Colts: 07:20 - 11:08
Texans @ Vikings: 11:08 - 13:56
Giants @ Browns: 13:56 - 17:14
Eagles @ Saints: 17:14 - 23:42
Broncos @ Buccaneers: 23:42 - 27:38
Packers @ Titans: 27:38 - 30:40
Questions: 30:40 - 33:40
Panthers @ Raiders: 33:40 - 36:31
Dolphins @ Seahawks: 36:31 - 40:24
Lions @ Cardinals: 40:24 - 44:11
Ravens @ Cowboys: 44:11 - 46:36
49ers @ Rams: 46:36 - 50:00
Chiefs @ Falcons: 50:00 - 54:40
Jaguars @ Bills: 54:40 - 58:21
Commanders @ Bengals: 58:21 - 1:01:03
Questions #2: 1:01:03 - 1:09:26
This is the audio from the Wednesday Livestream Preview held every week at 9am PT on RASPicks YouTube. Here is the list of game times from the show: Buffalo @ Miami: 00:00 - 05:00 Las Vegas @ Baltimore: 05:00 - 09:05 LA Chargers @ Carolina: 09:05 - 12:59 New Orleans @ Dallas: 12:59 - 18:29 Tampa Bay @ Detroit: 18:29 - 22:44 Indianapolis @ Green Bay: 22:44 - 28:14 Cleveland @ Jacksonville: 28:14 - 31:55 San Francisco @ Minnesota: 31:55 - 35:06 Seattle @ New England: 35:06 - 39:05 NY Jets @ Tennessee: 39:05 - 43:31 NY Giants @ Washington: 43:31 - 47:15 LA Rams @ Arizona: 47:15 - 52:26 Cincinnati @ Kansas City: 52:36 - 56:50 Pittsburgh @ Denver: 56:50 - 59:03 Chicago @ Houston: 59:03 - 1:03:08 Atlanta @ Philadelphia: 1:03:08 - 1:08:35 Q&A + Survivor 1:08:35 - 1:17:26
The Simple Handicap for Monday September 9th, 2024
Intro: 00:00 - 01:20 Vikings 28 - Giants 6: 01:20 - 04:16 Patriots 16 - Bengals 10: 04:16 - 07:11 Panthers 10 - Saints 47: 07:11 - 13:27 Jaguars 17 - Dolphins 20: 13:27 - 15:44 Texans 29 - Colts 27: 15:44 - 18:59 Titans 17 - Bears 24: 18:59 - 21:56 Cardinals 28 - Bills 34: 21:56 - 25:20 Steelers 18 - Falcons 10: 25:20 - 28:30 Early Injuries: 28:30 - 31:52 Raiders 10 - Chargers 22: 31:52 - 34:43 Broncos 20 - Seahawks 26: 34:43 - 39:00 Commanders 20 - Buccaneers 37: 39:00 - 44:50 Cowboys 33 - Browns 17: 44:50 - 47:17 Week 2 Opening Lines Reaction: 47:17 - 1:08:02
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjeYYFjAkts&t=3255s
Welcome & Intro: 00:00 - 03:27
Ravens @ Chiefs: 03:27 - 09:31
Packers vs Eagles: 09:31 - 17:31
Jaguars @ Dolphins: 17:31 - 22:32
Steelers @ Falcons: 22:32 - 27:05
Vikings @ Giants: 27:05 - 32:37
Panthers @ Saints: 32:37 - 38:18
Patriots @ Bengals: 38:18 - 45:03
Titans @ Bears: 45:03 - 48:55
Cardinals @ Bills: 48:55 - 53:21
Texans @ Colts: 53:21 - 55:56
Raiders @ Chargers: 55:56 - 1:00:24
Commanders @ Buccaneers: 1:00:24 - 1:05:01
Broncos @ Seahawks: 1:05:01 - 1:10:52
Cowboys @ Browns: 1:10:52 - 1:15:21
Rams @ Lions: 1:15:21 - 1:20:29
Jets @ 49ers: 1:20:29 - 1:27:15
Longshots/Props: 1:27:19 - 1:32:52
This morning I was joined by Greg Auman of The Athletic to preview the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 2024.
This morning I was joined by Mike Kaye of the Charlotte Observer to preview the Carolina Panthers for 2024.
This morning I was joined by Matt Verderame to preview the Kansas City Chiefs for 2024. You can follow all of Matt's KC coverage at www.patreon.com/mattverderame
Previewing the Las Vegas Raiders for the 2024 season with Q Myers of RaidersNation and LockedOnRaiders.
I was joined this monring by Ken McKusick of Film Study Baltimore to preview the team outlook for 2024.
I was joined this morning by Michael Oliva of DolphinsTalk.com and MiamiDolphins.com to preview the team for 2024.
I was joined this morning by Stephanie Stradley of the Houston Chronicle to preview the Houston Texans for 2024.
I was joined this morning by Andy Herman of Packers Report to preview the Green Bay Packers for 2024.
I was joined this morning by Darren Urban, beat reporter for the Arizona Cardinals to preview the outlook of the team in 2024.
Darren answers my questions at the following time stamps:
(03:36) Did Gannon hold back last year knowing it was a bridge year with Murray coming back mid season?
(04:41) What possible strengths could there be on defense?
(06:31) What is the identity of this team on offense?
(08:01) What is the state of the offensive line to support the run first mentality?
(09:29) What is the weakness of the OL?
I was joined this morning by Nick Farabaugh, beat reporter for PennLive.
Nick answered my questions at the following time stamps:
(03:06) Tell me about the offensive install so far and what can we expect?
(05:30) Has there been directive from Tomlin to stay conservative?
(07:43) Is Russ guaranteed the starting job?
(09:24) Has there been commentary from coaches in camp about Russ not throwing over the middle of the field?
(12:10) What is the wide receiver rotation going to be?
(15:07) What is the weakness of this defense?
I was joined this morning by Zac Stevens, beat reporter for DNVR.
Zac answers my questions at the following time stamps:
(03:23) Is Nix the starter?
(04:09) Difference in offense if it is Nix or Stidham?
(05:02) What do you expect for the pass/run ratio this season?
(07:03) Is this team win now, or find a QB and rebuild?
(08:51) Coup of Vance Joseph with the Jim Leonhard hire?
(10:19) Worried about the defense because of Payton/Leonhard?
(11:26) What is the strength of the defense?
In this episode I share my thoughts on the previews so far and give me take and outlook for each team based on my work and what the beat reporters have said.
Teams are discussed at the following time stamps...
(01:13) New England Patriots
(04:22) New York Jets
(10:18) Buffalo Bills
(14:12) Cleveland Browns
(17:32) Tennessee Titans
(21:31) Jacksonville Jaguars
(26:02) Indianapolis Colts
I was joined this morning by Destin Adams, Colts beat reporter for AtoZSports.
Destin answers my questions about the team at the following time stamps.
(02:44) How much is Anthony Richardson going to be allowed to run?
(03:42) Green light inside the red zone for Richardson to run?
(04:16) Will the offense be closer to the end of last year, or what we saw at the start with Richardson?
(05:20) What is the expectation for Taylor touches per game?
(06:50) What is the WR rotation going to look like?
(09:16) What is going on with all of these tight ends?
(11:53) What is the ceiling for Jelani Woods?
(12:57) Early passing, late running?
(14:25) Charlie Patridge in as the new DL coach, what does it mean?
I was joined this morning by Demetrius Harvey, beat reporter for Jacksonville.com.
Demetrius answers my questions at the following time stamps…
(02:47) Tyson Campbell signing
(03:35) Tell me about the shift we can expect with Ryan Nielsen coming over as the new DC
(05:16) How has the install been so far behind the scenes?
(07:18) Is the defense going to be more willing to gamble?
(09:30) How long is this going to take to work?
(10:35) Who is going to be calling plays for the offense?
(11:37) What is the difference between the play callers?
(12:44) How should we grade Trevor Lawrence?
(16:00) What changes we will see on offense?
(17:23) Higher or lower than 17th in yards per play?
The Simple Handicap Telegram: https://t.co/iiLcqiNeaX
I was joined this morning by Jim Wyatt, senior reporter for TenessseeTitans.com.
Jim answers my questions at the following time stamps.
(6:18) What does this season feel like to you compared to the other 25 you covered?
(7:44) How has the scheme and culture install been going?
(8:58) What is the biggest difference in the offense?
(10:21) What is your sense on Will Levis as a QB?
(12:44) How has the OL looked under new coach Callahan?
(15:40) Defensive drop off with Wilson as the new DC?
(18:14) More optimistic about the offense or the defense?
(19:45) Will starters play in the preseason more under the new HC?
I was joined by Zac Jackson, Browns beat reporter for The Athletic.
Zac answers my questions at the follwing time stamps:
(03:41) What is the offensive identity of this team with Ken Dorsey?
(05:20) How smooth has the transition been between coordinators?
(06:34) Is Deshaun Watson washed up and done?
(07:36) Injury updates and status of Chubb, Conklin, Wills
(09:28) The new Browns run scheme without OL Coach Callahan
(10:45) Impact of Mike Vrabel for the defense?
(12:46) What is not being discussed enough about this team?
(14:37) How is this team going to handle preseason?
I was joined by Matt Parrino, Bills beat reporter and host of the Shout! Podcast.
Matt answers my questions at the following time stamps:
(3:40) How much will Josh Allen be used in the run game this season?
(5:48) What is the ground game as a whole going to look like?
(8:39) What are the biggest changes we will see with Brady this year vs last year when he took over?
(10:43) Are the bigger WR’s there for Josh Allen’s erratic throwing, or for the run game?
(13:56) How much are we going to see from starters in pre season?
(14:45) Aaron Kromer’s impact on the offensive line
(16:12) Is Babich going to be running and calling the defense this year?
(19:27) Defensive performance predictions
I was joined by Joe Caporoso, founder of Turn on the Jets and Badlands to preview the New York Jets for 2024.
Joe answers my questions at the following time stamps:
(3:55) How many of the offseason storylines are real, how many are over blown and what is the concern level?
(6:01) How aligned is the coaching staff entering the season?
(7:45) Is everyone’s job on the line?
(9:25) Where is Rodgers between QB1 and QB21?
(10:55) What is this offense going to look like? Who is going to drive it?
(13:21) Sell me on why this is not the same old Jets?
(15:02) Can the defense replicate a top 5 level of play this year?
(16:34) Chance Reddick is good to go Week 1 regular season?
(17:11) Expectation for training camp and starters getting playing time in preseason games?
I am joined by Evan Lazar, senior reporter for Patriots.com to preview the New England Patriots for 2024.
Evan answers my questions at the following time stamps:
(02:47) More coach transparency at pressers without Belichick?
(04:15) Can we believe what the coaches are saying about players/news?
(05:23) How will the staff handle training camp and playing starters in preseason different?
(06:56) What is the Patriots offense going to look like?
(09:17) Is the scheme a better fit for Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye?
(11:01) How many games will Drake Maye start in 2024?
(12:52) What chance does Drake Maye have to start Week 1?
(14:31) Will the defense fall off without Belichick?
(17:13) Is there any sense of “win now” or is this a full rebuild year?
Welcome back everybody! This is the first episode of the 2024 NFL season breaking down what to expect from team previews and the season ahead here on the podcast feed.
Key links:
Newsletter: www.adamchernoff.com
Forum: www.bettingtalk.com
NFL service: www.raspicks.com/nfl
Initial NFL previews are quick first reactions to how teams will fare in the 2024 season.
These episodes include thoughts on teams, scheme changes and any picks or predictions on players and futures markets which stand out.
This episode features the Bengals, Raiders, Bears and Browns .
00:00 - 02:55 Intro
02:55 - 09:18 Cincinnati Bengals
09:18 - 17:22 Las Vegas Raiders
17:22 - 25:28 Chicago Bears
25:28 - 35:23 Cleveland Browns
Want more NFL thoughts?
The NFL service is live at www.raspicks.com/nfl Watch for updates on the NFL service at: https://www.handicapper.net
Subscribe to the weekly NFL newsletter at: https://www.adamchernoff.com
Following on Twitter? www.twitter.com/raspicks
Part three of first thoughts previews!
These shows will live stream every Wednesday at 9am PT on RASPicks YouTube as well as air here on the podcast feed the following day.
Intro: 00:00 - 02:34
LA Rams: 02:34 - 07:28
Baltimore Ravens: 07:28 - 15:34
Washington Commanders: 15:34 - 23:57
New England Patriots: 23:57 - 32:06
Part two of first previews are back!
These shows will live stream every Wednesday at 9am PT on RASPicks YouTube as well as air here on the podcast feed the following day.
Intro: 00:00 - 05:19
Atlanta Falcons: 05:19 - 10:13
Seattle Seahawks: 10:13 - 15:09
New Orleans Saints: 15:09 - 24:16
Carolina Panthers: 24:16 - 32:15
Philadelphia Eagles: 32:15 - 36:32
Pittsburgh 36:32 - 46:36
NFL first thoughts previews are back!
These shows will live stream every Wednesday at 9am PT on RASPicks YouTube as well as air here on the podcast feed the following day.
This episode discusses the Jets, Titans, Buccaneers and Chargers.
Intro 00:00 - 03:47
New York Jets 03:47 - 15:07
Tennessee Titans: 15:07 - 24:03
Los Angeles Chargers: 24:03 - 35:13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 35:13 - 48:28
Kirk Cousins to Atlanta (00:00 - 09:10)
Miami in a "reset" year (09:10 - 14:26)
Russell Wilson to Pittsburgh (14:26 - 24:45)
Kansas City wins again (24:45 - 33:49)
Bengals sneaky addition, What are the Raiders doing and WR/OL Draft Thoughts (33:49 - 41:45)
NFL Week 11 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/live/3T1v3OeYrlU
The Simple Handicap for Friday November 17th, 2023
NFL Week 11 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/live/3T1v3OeYrlU
The Simple Handicap for Thursday November 16th, 2023
Week 10 NFL Preview: https://www.youtube.com/live/lVAw7HpwOb4
The Simple Handicap for Friday November 10th, 2023
Week 10 NFL Preview: https://www.youtube.com/live/lVAw7HpwOb4
The Simple Handicap for Thursday November 9th, 2023
The Simple Handicap for Friday November 2nd, 2023
NFL Week 9 Preview + Q&A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUAoIDauSVE
Midseason Reset with Matthew Davidow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cno5SUigXPk
The Simple Handicap for Thursday November 2nd, 2023
NFL Week 9 Preview + Q&A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUAoIDauSVE
Midseason Reset with Matthew Davidow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cno5SUigXPk
The Simple Handicap for Wednesday November 1st, 2023
Midseason Reset with Matthew Davidow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cno5SUigXPk
The Simple Handicap for Friday October 27th, 2023
Week 8 Preview Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dID7SWe7ZuU
The Simple Handicap for Thursday October 26th, 2023
Week 8 Preview Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dID7SWe7ZuU
The Simple Handicap for Friday, October 20th, 2023
Week 7 Preview Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHXYtFedloA
The Simple Handicap for Thursday, October 19th, 2023
Week 7 Preview Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHXYtFedloA
The Simple Handicap for Friday October 13th, 2023.
Week 6 Q&A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4gzHMW5yIg
Week 6 Picks + Props: https://www.raspicks.com/football
The Simple Handicap for Thursday October 12th, 2023.
Week 6 Q&A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4gzHMW5yIg
Week 6 Picks + Props: https://www.raspicks.com/football
The Simple Handicap for Friday October 6th, 2023.
Week 5 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA5XMWG96qo
The Simple Handicap for Thursday October 5th, 2023.
Week 5 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA5XMWG96qo
The Simple Handicap for Friday September 29th, 2023
Youtube Week 4 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8sR-9TkHi0
The Simple Handicap for Thursday September 28th, 2023
Youtube Week 4 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8sR-9TkHi0
The Simple Handicap for Thursday September 22nd, 2023
Week 3 Live Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBVKd2Xm7EY
The Simple Handicap for Friday September 15th, 2023.
RAS Week 2 Livestream Q&A: https://youtube.com/live/nphHAcJeshM
The Simple Handicap for Thursday September 14th, 2023.
RAS Week 2 Livestream Q&A: https://youtube.com/live/nphHAcJeshM
The Simple Handicap for Friday September 8th, 2023.
RAS App: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Philadelphia Eagles
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Cleveland Browns.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the New Orleans Saints.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the New York Giants.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the New England Patriots.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Detroit Lions.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Arizona Cardinals.
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Tennessee Titans.
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
RAS App Download Link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/ras-insight-from-pro-bettors/id6450368307
An early season pre-preview of the Los Angeles Rams.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Indianapolis Colts.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Pittsburgh Steelers
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Green Bay Packers
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Chicago Bears.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Miami Dolphins
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the San Francisco 49ers
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Carolina Panthers
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Las Vegas Raiders
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Washington Commanders.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Seattle Seahawks
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The season long subscription is now available.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Atlanta Falcons.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Dallas Cowboys.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the New York Jets.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Denver Broncos.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Buffalo Bills.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the LA Chargers.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
The CFL season kicks off today, and we throw a curveball on the podcast with a long shot Grey Cup future.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Baltimore Ravens.
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Minnesota Vikings
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023? The first release will be sent out on June 15th.
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
An early season pre-preview of the Houston Texans
Interested in joining the NFL service for 2023?
Click on the link here for details: www.raspicks.com/football
This week's guest on the RAS podcast was Eric Eager, VP of Research and Development for Sumer Sports. Eric leads a team of data scientists who provide data and strategy to NFL teams.
On this episode, he was asked a series of questions about what it is like to work with NFL teams, his experience with player grading systems, roster/positional value, in-game strategy and of course, all four games this weekend.
Here are the time stamps for each of the four games:
Kansas City vs Jacksonville (37:04)
Buffalo vs Cincinnati (44:07)
Philadelphia vs NY Giants (48:59)
San Francisco vs Dallas (51:38)
Matthew Daviddow is the CTO at Huddle and sets NFL odds for multiple sportsbooks in the global market including Circa and Pinnacle.
This free flowing episode breaks down the playoffs overall and looks at the six wildcard weekend games.
NFC Breakdown (12:15)
AFC Breakdown (24:59)
Subscribe to follow Release Shows and College Bowl videos here: https://t.co/F0sgmu79Mz
Subscribe to follow Release Shows and College Bowl videos here: https://t.co/F0sgmu79Mz
Subscribe to follow Release Shows and College Bowl videos here: https://t.co/F0sgmu79Mz
December 16th:
Bahamas Bowl: Miami Ohio vs UAB (4:49)
Cure Bowl: Troy vs UTSA (8:58)
December 17th:
Fenway Bowl: Louisville vs Cincinnati (14:07)
Celebration Bowl: Jackson St vs NC Central (18:04)
New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs SMU (23:19)
LA Bowl: Fresno State vs Washington State (26:15)
Lendingtree Bowl: Rice vs Southern Miss (29:09)
Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs Oregon State (32:14)
Frisco Bowl: Boise State vs North Texas (35:55)
December 19:
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Connecticut vs Marshall (39:24)
December 20th:
Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs San Jose State (45:04)
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs Liberty (49:05)
December 21st:
New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs Western Kentucky (54:26)
December 22nd:
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs Baylor (56:56)
December 23rd:
Independence Bowl: Houston vs UL Lafayette (58:48)
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs Missouri (1:05:00)
December 24th:
Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State (1:07:25)
December 26th:
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs Bowling Green (1:11:14)
Subscribe to follow Release Shows and College Bowl videos here: https://t.co/F0sgmu79Mz
Free Thanksgiving Props Service at RAS: https://raspicks.com/picks
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Right Angle Sports CBB Service Info: https://raspicks.com/order
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Join The Simple Handicap Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Want more info on the RAS CBB service? Visit handicapper.net.
Looking to follow the bets and write-ups in 2022? Join the Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Looking to follow the bets and write-ups in 2022?
Join the Telegram Channel here: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
For a team priced as high as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are, there seems to be an awful lot of questions. What happened to Brady for 11 days during training camp? What will happen with Chris Godwin? Can the Buccaneers fill the hole of Gronkowski retiring? Will Todd Bowles be a flop - again - moving to the HC role? There are many missing pieces.
-
Perhaps no missing pieces are more important than the offensive line. Alex Kappa and Ali Marpet departed. Ryan Jensen got hurt at center. His backup got hurt the next week. Tristian Wirfs is banged up too. Nearly the entire OL unit will have turned over or has a new starter going into the opening of this season.
-
If Brady is dealing with something we are uncertain about, the offensive line regresses and the weapons take a step back from a season ago, this is a team that is drastically over priced at 11.5 wins, even within the easy NFC.
-
If there is one point of confidence it is the defense which is loaded up front, especially with the addition of Hicks. Running the ball on the Buccaneers will be tough again and the secondary will be above average. But to what level must this unit play again if the offensive production is reduced?
Not sure how anyone can go over 11.5 with the Buccaneers or be looking to back them consistently in the 15 games they are favored in.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
In his rookie year, Justin Herbert wildly overperformed expectations playing under pressure in the pocket. In his second year, Justin Herbert wildly over performed expectations on high leverage downs. While it is easy to point the finger and expect regression...this comes down to play calling.
-
Lombardi did almost everything he could to put Herbert and the Chargers in negative situations drive after drive after drive. If that happens again this season, then regression is logical. But, if things change for the better, the offense has a ridiculously ceiling and the team is still underpriced at 10.5 wins.
-
The defense has few if any holes across the board and will be more than able to keep this team competitive within games. As a roster overall, this is one of the three best in the league.
-
Everything about the Chargers points to betting the over, but I'd rather spot this team week to week and see what we get from the play calling perspective early. I think there is a ton of value betting this team in play, at halftimes and more as we learn their tendencies and what may have changed from an early down play calling spot.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
I have been down on Tennessee for a couple of seasons, and am sticking to the sentiment.
-
This will be the worst offensive line the Titans have put on the field since Tannehill and Henry joined the team. This unit will likely finish the season in the bottom five of the league.
-
Henry off of the Jones injury seeing a decline in explosive play rate for the last three seasons is difficult to trust behind that OL, especially with a lack of skill position weapons (Woods off a significant injury too as WR #1).
-
This is still a team that runs the ball far too often on early downs, went away from the presnap motion and play action tendencies that Smith used to make this offense work with dwindling talent at skill positions and a bad offensive line.
-
To make matters worse, the schedule of QB's on the road is the most difficult in the NFL. This seems like the year where the Titans finally fail to meet lofty expectations.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/teams/main/san-francisco-49ers
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
In 2021 the Dallas Cowboys had an insane outlier of the season on the defensive side of the football. Not only did they lead the league in takeaways and turnover differential, the value they gained in EPA off the turnovers was as high as any team that is tracked in the places I looked.
-
Takeaways are extremely difficult to replicate, and not sustainable year to year. The Cowboys despite the defensive fortune still allowed 350 yards per game which ranked below average in the league.
-
Much of their success came against favorable QB's as well. More than half of their wins were against non-starters are QB no longer in the league. Much of their success came within the division which goes a long way to skewing their strength of schedule in 2022.
-
With the defense very likely to regress, the focus shifts to the offense which lost many pieces. The OL is a lot weaker than it has been in years past, Amari Cooper is out, Gallup is still hurt and Washington is out to begin the year. Skill position is decimated. It is likely we see much more running in 2022.
-
Overall the Cowboys are a team to sell. Whether you want to bet the full season unders, win totals or just fade them often week to week, this team is set to fall back despite their price point being higher this year, than last.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
Professional bettors LOVED the Eagles in 2021 in the second half of the season. Why? Because they made a huge offensive shift going from one of the most pass heavy teams, to one of the most run heavy teams. This worked for their offense.
-
It may be easy to assume that Sirianni and company will stick with what worked a year ago considering the projected schedule of rush defenses they face is so soft, but their success in 2021 came against many light boxes and run favorable matchups.
-
The Eagles will be elite on the offensive line and put emphasis on the pass game in the offseason adding AJ Brown. If defenses sell out to stop the run, the Eagles pass game will be what bettors need to note most. Watch for defensive schemes early in the year.
-
I want to be buying the Eagles as a team, but have conflicting bets with the Giants but more so because the worst position on the team is at QB and this is a team favored in 11 games. A lot can go right with this team though, so watch out for Philadelphia week to week for bets.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/season-preview-for-every-team-2022-23
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
I love everything about the Colts this season.
-
The big thing to expect is a big change in pace. Last season the Colts were one of the 10 slowest teams in the league, this season I believe they will be one of the 10 quickest. Matt Ryan has been pushing pace and tempo all offseason and into preseason, and a jump that big could change things for this team relative to market in a huge way.
-
The accuracy of Matt Ryan is going to change the way that Reich trusts the pass game. Last season Indianapolis ran the ball at the 5th highest rate. But how much was due to the pass game being handcuffed? With a QB under center he can trust (3rd in accuracy for Ryan vs 33rd for Wentz), I expect the pass rate to be much higher.
-
While the OL for IND gets a lot worse, Matt Ryan's performance under pressure will be a huge asset. Wentz under pressure (or from a clean pocket) was a major issue. Ryan stabilizes this offense and opens up run game opportunities.
-
Key pieces on defense hold over, with Bradley stepping in as a DC which will keep the team schematically close to the same. Between all of the upside on offense, positivity from the receivers on the scheme, stability around the roster and one of the three easiest schedules, I love the Colts.
Bets I have made (*= love these two)
SB 25/1
AFC 12/1
South -115*
Playoffs -172*
Ryan o3900.5
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
Really tough team to preview for me. Not a burning opinion one way or another with the Cardinals in 2022.
-
Couple things I know for certain. The splits on Murray when he is healthy or not are enormous. Huge drop off in production and that has an impact on his stats overall that I do not believe is fully accounted for by the market.
-
The loss of Hopkins will be huge for this team. As bettors, we must treat this team two different ways essentially. With Hopkins and without. Important to think about the first six games this season and the difficulty of schedule.
-
Overall there are no breaks for Arizona. This schedule is incredibly difficult and by seasons end will likely end up the most difficult in the league. Opposing QB's are stacked and thats trouble for this defense which has one of the 2-3 worst secondaries in the league and lost their best pass rusher.
As much as I would love to fade Arizona, they have been adjusted in market in a big way. Tough one here.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/las-vegas-raiders-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
The Las Vegas Raiders were BIG overachievers in 2021 excelling in all the major categories that bettors love to look at as luck metrics. Point differential, one score games, second half combacks, schedule luck. Everything went the way of the Raiders in 2021.
-
There is A LOT of optimism about the Raiders offense in 2022. The addition of Adams gives the Raiders arguably the best receiver trio in the league between WR/SLOT/TE with Adams, Renfrow and Waller. Each are terrific route runners and great in space.
-
On paper, this looks ideal to pair with Derek Carr who is extremely accurate and consistent in his play. Annually he is one of the most overlooked QB's and now with top talent around him, everything is in place to succeed.
-
The only problem I see is that in spending to get Adams, they neglected the offensive line. Carr season after season has played with an elite OL blocking for him. This season will be the worst he has ever had, with just one starter grading above average at his position in 2021.
-
This is significant, because the splits for Carr when pressured vs kept clean turn him into a below average QB, rather than a top talent in the league. If all of the preseason love for this offense is fuelled by his past performance with a top OL, perhaps this team is over valued considering what he will have to do make do with this year.
All that said, the Raiders defense will be terrible, and Las Vegas should find themselves in plenty of high scoring games this season against such a difficult schedule. A over team here in many ways, but not as clear cut as made out to be.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
Sean Payton is out, Dennis Allen is in. Overall going from an offensive minded coach to defensive minded coach is a stay away for me for any long term bets BUT, Carmichael stays on as the OC who has 13 years of continuity with the roster. I think that matters and makes this the exception.
-
There are also many positives to expect from the offense due to personnel alone. The Saints get Michael Thomas back, added Jarvis Landry and drafted speeder Chris Olvae. There is hopefully stability with Winston under center after the Saints started 4 QB's in 2021.
-
The trio of wide receivers will mesh well with Winstons willingness to push the ball down field. Annually he is among the top of the list in air yards per throw and loves to be aggressive.
-
The extra impact of this is teams needing to respect the deep ball and speed of wide receivers. This in turn will open up space for Alvin Kamara from the backfield, who was singled out all last season due to so many injuries.
-
The addition of Maye and Mathieu negates some key losses in the secondary, but this is a defense despite a difficult schedule I believe can play to league average which is enough to keep this team competitive all season.
Bullish on the Saints. I think nine wins is the mark for them this season and I have bet them at +118 to make the playoffs.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
I love when a team makes the shift from a defensive minded head coach to an offensive minded head coach. The Minnesota Vikings in 2022 get a much needed change - and upgrade - from Zimmer to O'Connell
-
One thing that O'Connell has alreayd proven to bring over is an increased rate of three wide receiver sets which is going to mean more Jefferson - Thielen - Osborne on the field at the same time, which is exactly what this team needs.
-
Last season the Vikings passed a ton out of heavy personnel, but already in reports and interviews with Justin Jefferson and new HC O'Connell, the Vikings are going to be very different in 2022 and spread out opponents more with 3 WR sets. This will lead to better passing game success, and rushing.
-
In 2021, the Vikings finished 12th in offensive yards per play and 26th in defensive yards per play allowed. I think it is reasonable to think the Vikings improve on both marks with the coaching change. This is a bet on team.
-
I have bet Minnesota to win the NFC at 20/1, win the North at +240, Over 9.5 wins +105, Make playoffs at -118 and Jefferson OPY at 16/1.
Telegram Link: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
There is good reason to believe the Miami Dolphins improve on both offense and defense in 2022 - but whether or not it shows right away, is to be seen.
-
The replacement of Brian Flores - a defensive minded coach - with Mike McDaniel is a massive upgrade for this team. The San Francisco/Shanahan style of offense is going to go a long way in opening up this Dolphins offense. The hiring of the Chargers run game coordinator and tendencies of the SF playbook suggest a much higher run rate.
-
The staple of that offense is opening up receivers downfield in space. Tua for all he is criticized for, is extremely accurate. Now that he has receivers open in space, behind an above average offensive line, he is going to have a lot of success.
-
There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to the skill talent too. Hill, Wilson, Waddle, Gesicki, Williams. This offense is loaded! A strong backfield too. Everything points up here.
-
Where this gets interesting is the schedule difficulty goes up too, way up. Miami moves from the fourth easiest schedule last season, to eight most difficult this seaosn. A huge leap that is front loaded. Miami may end up still being under rated by the end of September. Lots of betting potential here.
TELEGRAM LINK: https://t.me/+ByNAj_cW_EdjZmIx
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/washington-commanders-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
Washington could be VERY different in 2022 which I am unsure the markets are fully accounting for.
-
Make no mistake about it, Carson Wentz has accuracy issues. This is not a secret. But, he is much more willing and able of pushing the ball downfield compared to the last 5-6 starting QB's Washington has had. With McLaurin, Dotson, Brown and Samuel, that could unlock this offense.
-
Offensive coordinator Scott Turner is sneaky underrated, and puts his guys in positions to succeed. The offensive line is solid, and the run game support will be there to make life easy for Wentz.
-
No team faces a bigger change in strength of schedule in 2022 than Washington. They go from the most difficult in 2021 to the 7th easiest projected schedule in 2022. This team will be better on both sides of the ball.
-
The kicker in all of this is ultimately Wentz. If he can play to the level of an average quarterback, the weapons are there for this team to do well. If he is Wentz of old, this team may struggle to win 7 games and he won't finish the season. It's really that simple. But as is, I just don't think the market is accounting for the offensive upside here.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-england-patriots-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
In March of this offseason, Jakob Johnson did an interview with a media network in his hometown of Stuggart, Germany. During the interview he said his position had been "eliminated" from the Patriots offense.
-
This is significant, because at fullback, he played more than 300 offensive snaps and the Patriots in total ran 23% of their offensive snaps with at least two running backs on the field. If the position is eliminated, where do those snaps go?
-
I believe that they will largely become passing snaps. New England still had a lot of success running out of 3 WR sets and the addition of Parker gives them a viable trio of wide receivers to rely on.
-
There are other signs to more passes and up tempo offense coming in 2022. Mac Jones went through an extreme weight loss and conditioning program, beat reporters have consistent spoke about how much quicker the offense looks on field, and McDaniels is out as the play caller.
-
While Belichick assumes responsibility for the play calling duties, Patricia will be inserted as the stand in OC. Considering the loss of JC Jackson and key pieces in the middle of the Patriots defense, they will be forced into more zone coverage than man, which will change the defensive look overall against a much more difficult schedule of quarterbacks.
I think the Patriots score a ton of points in 2022 - while giving up just as many, or more. Their totals are too low, and this is a prime over team in the season ahead.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/detroit-lions-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
The price point for the Detroit Lions in 2022 is quite different from 2021. They move from 5 to 6.5 shaded towards 7 win total. An average spread of 8.1 to 3.3. Underdog in 17 games to 14.
-
In 2021, the Lions were two different teams playing from ahead and playing from behind. Of their 1,047 offensive snaps last season, just 17% saw the Lions leading while 60% saw them trailing by at least a FG. When trailing by 3+ points, the Lions offensive success rate was above average. When leading, they were among the worst in the NFL. All season long the Lions offense performed well when playing from behind, but seldom got out in front and built leads.
-
The big difference and turning point for the 2021 season was the mid year play caller change. Dan Campbell took over from Anthony Lynn and the team started to target 3 wide receivers at a much higher rate while abanonding targeting Swift out of the backfield like Lynn obsessed over the first half of the season to open up the offense.
-
With Swift likely to become a much more traditional runner in 2022 behind a strong offensive line, I believe the Lions will increase their pass rate and target more wide receivers as evidenced by signing Chark and drafting Williams 12th.
-
The secondary remains a huge issue for the Lions and one they neglected in the offseason only adding Mike Hughes to the fold. While I am bullish overall on the offense, defensively this team has many issues heading into the season.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-york-giants-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
I have made a number of bets on the Giants heading into 2022. They include, make the playoffs yes (+225), win the divison (+700), win 10+ games (+400) and Daboll COY (+1500).
-
This is a team that is priced similarly to last year, but has an upgrade at GM, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator and Defensive Coordinator.
-
Their strength of schedule shifts from second most difficult in 2021 to one of the ten easiest in 2022. Just those changes alone warrant a higher price point, but add in regression due to injury (QB, RB, and WR 1,2,3 missed a combined 30 games in 2021) and things point up for New York.
-
The biggest shift will be the play calling and offensive structure from Daboll. During his time in Buffalo he prioritized aggression early, building a lead, hitting explosive plays, smart QB designed runs and red zone execution, where his teams ranked among the best in the league each season. In comparison, this Giants offense ranked worst.
-
I think there is a lot of hidden talent on the Giants roster suppresed from years of poor coaching. I believe 2022 is the breakthrough while the rest of the division stays static or takes a step back.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
The Steelers defense is going to be absolutely LOADED. Not a surprise to say that either. Highest paid defense in the league, holes were filled in the offseason and Flores, a brilliant defensive mind, was added. Potential to be the best defense in football.
-
The Steelers offensive line is going to be absolutely HORRID. Not a surprise to say that either! Cheapest unit in the league, no holes were filled and likely to return four starters, but all of the returnees are among the worst at their position in 2021.
-
The key thing to watch with Pittsburgh is the pass/run rate. Removing Roethlisberger from the team removes the lid on the offense. He was restricted and lacked arm strength. Does Canada trust Trubisky or Pickett to throw down field often?
-
In my opinion, signs point to the Steelers RUNNING more and trusting Harris, while they figure out the situation at QB - if they ever do. While we may see more positive offensive scheme and tendencies (mainly play action), we likely see more run rate.
-
Depending how low the pass rate drops, the Steelers pricing within the market is set to shift early in the season. More passing, more deep shots, totals and receiver props, way too short. More running, defenses sell out upfront and take advantage of the OL, Steelers become a dead under team.
Weeks 1, 2 and 3 will tell the story. Watch for it, and adjust.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/carolina-panthers-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
I think the Panthers defense is over rated. Their success last season came in the first two months of the season where they feasted on backup quarterbacks and rookies.
-
The five wins for Carolina in 2021 were all arguably a bit phoney. They beat Wilson in his first ever start, Mills in his first ever start, Jameis in his second start with New Orleans, Ryan the week after his leading WR abandoned the team and McCoy/Streveler combined for Arizona.
-
If the defense is inflated relative to last season, they are in a tight spot overall as the schedule in 2022 gets a lot more difficult as the Panthers swing from a well below average strength of schedule to above league average.
-
It is very likely Baker Mayfield starting as Ruhle coaches for his job this season, but where does the confidence come from under McAdoo at OC? This is going to be a run heavy team that will skew towards unders.
-
Unfortunately, the market has already shifted. Carolina has one of the lowest win totals in the league and is a favorite in just two games all season. Tough team to peg or bet on or against heading into 2022.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
The floor on the Jaguars in 2022 has been raised dramatically from 2021. The changes and roster creation in the offseason has compeltely changed the avergae outlook on this team...despite the market favoring them in just two games.
-
The toxic environment, lack of leadership and botched play calling of the Urban Meyer regieme set Trevor Lawrence and this Jaguars team up to fail from the start. To make matters worse, the RB/WR room in 2021 was the third most injured.
-
If we believe the Lawrence talent level is still the same as it was widely accepted to be coming out of college, the surrounding skill players, coaching change and offensive scheme adjustments should all benefit this team in a positive way.
-
Some previews may look at the roster construction strategy as a negative, but there is precedent for success from spending for Pederson, who burned the entire Eagles cap in the offseason leading up to the 2017-18 Super Bowl victory. If we trust Pederson and his talent judgement, the additions are almost all positive across the board.
-
The Jaguars in many ways are a play on or a buy team for me on a week to week basis in 2022. Better coaching, better skill position players, a QB in a much better spot to succeed and a much easier schedule of opponents on both sides of the ball.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/new-york-jets-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
Can 2021 be considered a throw away season? Rookie QB starting week 1, new coaching staff across the board and second most games lost to starters on injury?
-
Wilson was horrendous, finishing worse than 32nd in five major passing categories, and how poor he played remains a big talking point among betting previews. But how much was situation based?
-
Mike Lafleur is a SF/Shanahan coaching and passing game guy. His offenses are extremely structure based, where the QB is expected to work within the offense, and not out of it. Wilson had to become an entirely new QB, that went from relying on his athleticism, to relying on his reads and play knowledge, making quick, short throws.
-
On quick (sub league avg release times), short throws 5+ yards downfield, Wilson actually led the league in accuracy, and ranked 14th or better in success rate, YPA and EPA/att. NYJ built around that this offseason, drafting Wilson, adding big targets in Conklin/Uzomah, and keeping Carter/Moore. A lot more efficiency and balls in playmakers hands coming in 2022.
-
The Jets were last in every meaningful defensive metric last season, despite facing the 4th easiest schedule of opposing offenses. This season the schedule jumps up to average difficulty overall and above average for opposing QB’s. But these 2021 numbers are misleading and the schedule will be much more difficult than projected.
-
Lamar, Burrow, Rodgers, Cousins, Allen x2 are all top 10 QB’s. But NE x2 and MIA x2 are much improved offenses compared to 2021 and JAX/DET are each expected to take offensive leaps too. Outside of PIT, CHI and SEA, there are no easy outs for this league worst defense a year ago relying on rookies for a boost.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: Chicago Bears Odds, Picks & Betting Preview 2022 (covers.com)
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
Chicago takes on new coaches and coordinators across the board with Eberflus (HC), Getsy (OC) and Williams (DC) set to bring impactful change to this team from a betting stand point.
-
The part bettors should note most is the offensive coordinator role. Getsy comes from the McVay/Shanahan coaching tree, which utilize high run, play action and pre snap motion rates - all things that should help young quarterbacks.
-
The big issue is that the Bears did little to help Fields (second cheapest OL, third cheapest WR room) while on his rookie deal. Other teams in the league are finding success with rookie deal QB's adding expensive offensive pieces, this staff elected to build around Eberflus's preference, defense.
-
The biggest free agency aquisitions as well as the top draft picks were all used to bolster the defense which should go from a traditional aggressive Bears defense, to a passive, conservative Eberflus defense.
-
Reports from training camp suggest a Tennessee style offense, which has utilized one of the highest running rates in the league the past four seasons. It is a BIG difference between Henry and that OL to Montgomery and this OL. Fields likely put in bad situations with top reciever Robinson gone.
There should be optimism for Fields, but instead there is a weak OL, a lack of weapons and a coaching staff that wants to run. His deep ball could be limited or neglected, and with how decent, yet, passive, this defense should be, everything about the Bears suggests they are a strong week to week under candidate entering 2022.
Covers sports betting preview written by Jason Logan: https://www.covers.com/nfl/houston-texans-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest Details: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
The Texans second highest paid skill position player in 2022 is a fullback. Not sure much more needs to be said about roster consruction.
-
The optimism around Davis Mills for how he finished the season in 2021 is warranted, but the connection to Pep Hamilton and assumed success as Pep steps into the OC role may be a stretch too far.
-
The accolades are there! Pep coached Andrew Luck in college, took the job with Indianapolis when Luck was drafted and got to the AFC Championship, then coached Justin Herbert in his breakout rookie campaign.
-
But, I have bigger questions! If he was as great as listed, why was there a three year span recently out of the league? No NFL team wanted him. He ended up in the failed XFL experiment. For two decades he has been promoted, but ultimately fails. Is that going to be different under Lovie Smith?
-
The Texans will play a west coast style offense that supports short passes, and with the lack of WR depth, deep downfield passes are unlikely to be the norm. So where does that leave sports bettors? The market has adjusted down for the Texans in every market, and they are listed as underdogs in every game.
-
Value in backing Houston will be rare in 2022, as this team looks poised to have a peak of 5 wins.
Preview Start: (0:50)
Jason Logan Seattle Atlanta Falcons: https://www.covers.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons-season-betting-preview-2022
Circa Millions Contest: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
-
This team is going to be awful. They lost Matt Ryan who was extremely stable at QB, they lost Ridley, their top wide receiver to playing DraftKings, and their second best WR Gage, to Tom Brady.
-
They have a young coach and play caller in Arthur Smith who is extremely conservative and ran the ball on early downs at a very high rate last season. He also shows few tendencies to want to be innovative on offense.
-
It is likely they commit to Marcus Mariota and not rookie QB Desmond Ridder from the draft.
-
This means Smith likely increases his run rate with Mariota’s mobility, their best skill player (Patterson) working out of the backfield, and a poor pass blocking offensive line.
-
The defense, specifically the secondary, could be sneaky good and finish the season around 13-16th. No cornerback duo on a 2022 roster allowed fewer combined yards than AJ Terrell and Casey Hayward who start 1-2 for ATL this season.
-
The market knows this team is likely to be the worst in football. You won’t find much value betting any of the season long props under.
The market has adjusted to their week one matchup against the Saints which has the lowest total on the board at 41. But, you might find is opportunity to bet the team under frequently week to week the rest of the season. The Falcons secondary could limit the speed at which opponents blow them out, if they happen to have a lead, Smith likely gets conservative and if playing from behind, it is tough to trust Mariota and the lack of skill players to come back.
Preview Start: 5:20
Jason Logan Seattle Seahawks Preview: Seattle Seahawks Odds, Picks & Betting Preview 2022 (covers.com)
Circa Millions Contest: Circa | Sports Million IV Pro Football Contest - Circa | Sports (circasports.com)
Is Drew Lock in 2022 on trajectory for Jameis Winston in 2019? Three seasons ago, Jameis Winston threw 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions enroute to the Buccaneers playing over their posted total in 12 of 16 games. The boom or bust play of Winston put points on the scoreboard - both ways - quickly, but he an Lock share similarities in their playing style. With an average posted total this season 10 points lower than the '19 Buccaneers, this could be intriguing for bettors.
-
In his last full season of play, Drew Lock had the third highest intended air yards in the league, combined one of the highest aggressive throw percentages. He is not scared to throw the ball down field when trailing - and Seattle will be trailing, often.
-
The only roster area Seattle ranks inside the top 7 as a consensus ranking is wide receiver. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dynamic downfield targets for Lock to throw at. The third option of Dee Eskridge with his speed is worth noting too.
-
The Seattle defense is likely to be one of the worst 5-6 units in the entire league with weaknesses up front (bottom 2-3) and in the secondary (bottom 3-4). This is not a team built to shut down opposing offenses, especially on short fields.
-
The combination of Lock's willingness to throw downfield to dynamic wide receivers and the defenses inability to get stops, should lead to lots of boom or bust throw attempts (explosive passes or INT's) which are condusive to points.
-
Considering Seattle is priced in projections as a low 40's total team (41-43) these are not numbers that are set to sustain a lot of variance and due to how low they are, could make the Seahawks a sneaky over team in 2022.
There is A LOT cooking in this episode. The first 14-15 minutes are discussing why people I know have had trouble this draft. The last 15-20 minutes I give out 13 different draft props to consider betting. I will be back later in May after a summer getaway. Until then, be sure to follow over at www.covers.com
It is always a fun afternoon when Dave Sharapan calls. Luckily we were able to record this one and turn it into a podcast. This was a ton of fun, and if you consume sports betting content, you will enjoy this one!
Eric Eager from PFF is one of the best minds in the NFL industry and is one of my favorite people for simplifying personnel. This is a call I had with him on March 16th to make sense of all the moves so far to put everything into context.
Be sure to follow him @PFF_Eric.
Talking about my experience with fixed games in Colombia through Envigado FC and why the situation with Ridley and the NFL is no where near comparable to being "fixed" as Fox Sports analysts suggest.
Also my comments on why this is a big victory for the regulated betting industry (it's working) but why active athlete deals create a double standard.
We are into the depths of the offseason now as we enter the month of March. Before the new league year begins on March 16th, I wanted to take one last look back at 2021 and talk about three areas I want to improve on for betting in 2022.
Want to keep up with Covers YouTube content? Subscribe to our channel here: Covers Daily: Super Bowl Retro with Rob Pizzola - YouTube
Let the offseason content begin! Rob Pizzola of BetStamp joined me to recap the Super Bowl and discuss a whole lot of other topics in betting. A great free flowing conversation.
Want to keep up with Covers YouTube content? Subscribe to our channel here: Covers Daily: Super Bowl Retro with Rob Pizzola - YouTube
Let the offseason content begin! Rob Pizzola of BetStamp joined me to recap the Super Bowl and discuss a whole lot of other topics in betting. A great free flowing conversation.
Want to keep up with Covers YouTube content? Subscribe to our channel here: Covers Daily: Super Bowl Retro with Rob Pizzola - YouTube
Subscribe and follow the podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-betting-startups-podcast/id1594903698
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/17Oj3tAezOdVMbM0VvZo9U
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are the two top ranked teams entering the 2021 NFL season. Everything that both of these two teams do all season will be intertwined.
For the Bills, the biggest question is whether the 2020 season was the peak for Josh Allen? Is is possible we have seen his best year as a QB? With viable options at 3rd and 4th string WR, how much better will Brian Daboll be in 2021? After getting snubbed for HC jobs, will he push the early game and down passing further this season?
The Chiefs are favored in all 16 games this season and have the highest win total - for good reason. In each year that Andy Reid has been head coach the team has exceeded its win total. With the best QB in the league behind a rebuilt offensive line, what is the ceiling for this offense? Spagnulo made a concerted effort to retain safeties and players in the secondary. Is KC a step further ahead than we think compared to other teams in the AFC?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the second shortest priced team in the NFL heading into 2021. With a win total of 11.5 priced to the over, bookmakers and bettors are expecting Tampa Bay to be close to contending for a repeat. Last season Tampa Bay brought in a ton of new names and faces on both sides of the football in the most unusual and limited offseason. They made it work and got to the final. But what happened midseason to go from 7-5 into the bye to 8-0 to finish down the stretch? Are we forgetting how close this team was to losing in the post season multiple times? What should we expect in 2021?
Bettors should be very optimistic about the 49ers entering the 2021 NFL season. Favored to win 13 games, bookmakers and the betting market are too. With a win total of 11, the 49ers have been upgraded significantly off their 6 win season in 2020. Despite having a roster loaded with skill position talent, the media is questioning the efficiency at the QB situation. Is Jimmy Garoppolo as bad as he is being made out to be, or is he the clear day one starter? Where does Trey Lance fit in? Lots to break down and think about in this episode today.
The Baltimore Ravens enter the 2021 NFL season with a win total of 11 and are favorites in 14 games. The expectations and price point are as high as they come for Lamar Jackson entering his fourth season in the league. Have defenses figured out how to defend the unique offensive style of Greg Roman? Last season the Ravens feasted on weak offensive and defensive opponents but struggled with competition was most difficult. With the increase in schedule difficulty heading into 2021, are the new names added from the draft and offseason enough to offset the potential struggles?
Previewing and ranking the Green Bay Packers tends to be a simple task. As long as they have Aaron Rodgers, this is a top ten team. The question each season is where they fit within those teams. After winning 13 games for the second consecutive seasons, it would be easy to stick them near the top, but there is reason to believe this team is not with the elites heading into 2021. Rodgers had a career year in 2020 (48 TD's, 71% completion rate, 121.5 passer rating) and the market never caught up to the Packers who went 11-7 ATS and covered the spread by an average of 3.4 points. There was a ton of under money expecting regression - but it never came. This season, much of that same sentiment returns. The quoted "F-You" tour Rodgers led throughout the league in 2020 is done, or at least exhausted into another season, and despite having the best QB, RB and WR in the league, things get considerably tougher in 2021. The Packers move from the 21st most difficult schedule of opposing defences in 2020 to the 3rd most difficult in 2021. For pass effeciency defense specifically, no team sees a more difficult increase this season vs last than the Packers. Key center Corey Linsley departed and David Bakhtiari's return is still in question after a season ending injury in 2020. The line up front looks different and much weaker than last season or prior. That is trouble looking at pass rushes of New Orleans, Washington, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore, Minnesota x2 and Chicago x2 on the schedule. Even if Rodgers duplicates his career year, it is incredibly difficult to find 12 or 13 wins against these opponents.
The Cleveland Browns enter the 2021 NFL season with a win total of 10.5. Expectations for high for Cleveland with all 11 offensive starters returning to the lineup from last season. Kevin Stefanski returns from coach of the year accolades in 2020 and hopes to lead Baker Mayfield to a repeat or improvement on his career season. As exciting as the Browns are, there are some concerns from bettors. Underlying metrics in one score games, field goal or less finishes, point differential and overall games missed to injury suggest regression in 2021. The schedule also gets more difficult for this offense. Will the Browns match the hype and contend with Buffalo, Baltimore and KC, or is this too much to handle?