Stock Stories: Recent Episodes
Alex Mason
This is the podcast that helps you decode the business behind the stock. Join Alex Mason, your stock storyteller, as we journey through the S&P 500, mental models, and more.
Today we're looking at one of the world's largest transportation companies, Federal Express (better known as FedEx). We'll discuss the history, business model, and financials of this logistics giant.
History: [01:02]
Business Model: [03:27]
Financials: [05:47]
Stock Price: [13:08]
🎧 Listen to 250+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Morgan Stanley's Origins and Glass-Steagall Act [00:00:00]
Merger with Dean Witter and Diversification [00:02:27]
Financials and Business Segments of Morgan Stanley [00:04:51]
Debt Issuance and Payments [00:10:35]
Increasing Cash Dividends [00:11:45]
Stock Performance and Valuation [00:12:49]
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Today we'll learn about Citigroup, one of the Big Four American banks. Like its peers, Citi has had a tumultuous history. Is the stock worth the price at current levels?
History of Citigroup [00:02:26] Citigroup's history, from its founding in the early 1800s to its expansion and innovation in the 20th century, to its acquisition of Travelers Group and subsequent spinoff, to its troubles during the financial crisis and eventual return to profitability.
Citi's Business Model [00:04:50] An overview of Citigroup's business model, including its five major markets: banking, personal banking, markets, Citi Global Wealth, and services.
Citigroup's Financials [00:07:00] A summary of Citigroup's financial data over the past several years, including its revenue, net income, dividends, and share repurchases.
Citigroup's stock price performance [00:10:22] Citigroup's stock price has been flat over a year and down over 30% over the past five years. The market is pricing it lower than its peers, but it could be a good stock to own potentially.
Earnings yield and dividend yield of Citigroup [00:11:20] The earnings yield of Citigroup stock is 15%, and the dividend yield is 4.39%, which is higher than average in the market right now.
Is Citigroup a potential value play? [00:12:26] Citigroup could be a potential value play, but it depends on whether you want to own a bank with slower growing revenues compared to its peers.
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Bank of America has become one of the largest banks in the United States, and has rebounded nicely from the Great Recession of 2008. We'll look at the history, business model, and financials of this banking giant.
01:17 - History of Bank of America. The founder of Bank of America, Amadeo Peter Giannini, opened the Bank of Italy in San Francisco in 1904, which later merged with another bank in Los Angeles in 1928 and was renamed Bank of America. The bank expanded through acquisitions and innovations such as the Bank America card, which later became Visa.
05:37 - Bank of America's Recovery. After suffering major losses from acquiring Countrywide Financial, Bank of America paid over $23 billion in fines and downsized, but returned to growth in 2015 and is now the second largest bank by deposits in the US.
08:01 - Financials of Bank of America. Bank of America's financials show mid single-digit growth across all segments, indicating a diversified financial business. The bank has seen gradual growth in interest income and revenue, and has been actively buying back shares while paying out a dividend.
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Check out these 100 stock market investing lessons below! For all of the fun visuals, check out the video on the Stock Stories YouTube channel.
0:51 - (1) Why Invest?
01:57 - (2) Investing Goals
03:00 - (3) Put Your Money To Work
03:39 - (4) What's Your Goal?
05:15 - (5) Shares = Business Ownership
06:07 - (6) Intrinsic Value
07:15 - (7) Greed vs Fear
08:03 - (8) Margin of Safety
09:00 - (9) Don't Fall In Love
09:30 - (10) Investing Takes Time
10:08 - (11) High Interest Debt
10:49 - (12) Asset Class Time Horizon
11:40 - (13) 10-K Filings
12:32 - (14) 13-K Filings
13:29 - (15) CEO's Letter to Shareholders
14:07 - (16) The Three Financial Statements
15:02 - (17) Assets vs Liabilities
15:59 - (18) Revenue vs Profits
16:58 - (19) Price to Sales Ratio
17:46 - (20) Price to Earnings Ratio
18:21 - (21) Trading Stocks
19:39 - (22) Active vs Passive
20:58 - (23) Age as Proof of Concept
21:54 - (24) Timeless Businesses
23:14 - (25) Young Businesses
24:11 - (26) Size Matters
25:45 - (27) Initial Public Offerings
27:33 - (28) Brand Strength
28:43 - (29) Oil and Biotech Volatility
30:15 - (30) Boring Businesses
30:39 - (31) Exciting Businesses
31:43 - (32) Beat Inflation
32:38 - (33) Returns Don't Matter...At First
33:34 - (34) Fees Matter
34:16 - (35) Asset Location
35:19 - (36) Capital Gains Taxes
36:09 - (37) Index Funds
36:55 - (38) Index Fund Components
37:59 - (39) 80% Under-perform
38:38 - (40) 20% Over-perform
39:16 - (41) Timing the Market
41:27 - (42) Opportunity Cost
42:29 - (43) Portfolio Personality
43:43 - (44) Invest Internationally
44:51 - (45) Structural Issues
45:45 - (46) Worst Industries
47:38 - (47) Best Industries
49:34 - (48) Industry Characteristics
50:13 - (49) Old and New Industries
50:56 - (50) Businesses Evolve
52:06 - (51) Volatility by Size
52:46 - (52) Quality of Earnings
54:36 - (53) High Regulation
55:55 - (54) Barrier to Entry
57:50 - (55) Perpetual Debt
59:19 - (56) Low Debt
60:23 - (57) Interest Rates
61:55 - (58) Top Index Components
63:37 - (59) Cash Is King
65:25 - (60) Share Dilution
66:46 - (61) Share Buybacks
67:54 - (62) Failure
68:37 - (63) Buyouts
69:13 - (64) Efficient Market Theory
71:28 - (65) Analyst Over-optimism
72:32 - (66) Mismatched Expectations
73:38 - (67) Insider Buying
74:40 - (68) ESOP
75:18 - (69) Dividends at Mature Firms
76:06 - (70) Dividends at Young Firms
76:29 - (71) Dividend Growth and Quality
77:34 - (72) Small But Profitable
79:02 - (73) Risk Shifting
80:00 - (74) 100 Baggers
81:10 - (75) Unicorns
81:44 - (76) Value Trap
82:40 - (77) Business vs Stock Performance
83:29 - (78) ROE Definition
84:04 - (79) Long Term Value = ROE
85:03 - (80) Valuation and Expectations
85:50 - (81) Average Business, Super Cheap
86:28 - (82) Excellent Business, Super Expensive
87:06 - (83) Three Dimensions of a Stock
88:13 - (84) Leverage Effects
89:09 - (85) Three-Legged Stool
90:33 - (86) Risk-Adjusted Total Return
91:36 - (87) Spin-offs and Split-offs
92:30 - (88) International Expansion
93:51 - (89) Taxes on Foreign Dividends
95:13 - (90) Wash Sale Rule
95:57 - (91) Float
97:40 - (92) Total Addressable Market
99:19 - (93) Volume / Margin Mix
100:49 - (94) Acquisition Logic
102:16 - (95) Industry Stabilization
103:27 - (96) Three Levels of Risk
104:33 - (97) Many Faces of Diversification
105:44 - (98) Debt Structure
106:54 - (99) Horizontal and Vertical Thinking
108:20 - (100) The Most Important Lesson...
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Goldman Sachs History [00:00:46]
The history of Goldman Sachs, from its origins in commercial paper trading to its expansion into investment banking and asset management.
Goldman Sachs Business Model [00:05:20]
An overview of Goldman Sachs' business model, including its three main divisions: global banking and markets, assets and wealth management, and platform solutions.
Goldman Sachs Financials [00:08:21]
A breakdown of Goldman Sachs' revenue streams, including investment banking, investment management, commissions and fees, and market making.
Goldman Sachs' Revenue [00:10:08]
Goldman Sachs' revenue in investment management has steadily grown, while their investment banking division needs improvement.
Goldman Sachs' Expenses and Profits [00:11:04]
Goldman Sachs' expenses are mostly compensation and benefits, with a profit of 107 billion in 2022, a far cry from the 21 billion in 2021.
Goldman Sachs' Cash Flow and Stock Performance [00:13:48]
Goldman Sachs has a good cash position relative to their loans, invests in acquisitions and technology, pays dividends, and has a stock price history of 38% growth in the past five years.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Today we discuss the importance of conservatism in banking and the risks of not managing risk well. He then analyzes the history, business model, and financials of Wells Fargo, noting that the bank is a fundamentally good business with potential for growth. Despite a decline in revenue due to economic headwinds and a scandal related to fraudulent cross-selling, I believe that Wells Fargo is simplifying its operations and positioning itself for strong shareholder returns in the future. While I would prefer a slightly cheaper valuation, I do consider Wells Fargo to be a good business and a potential investment opportunity.
00:46 - History of Wells Fargo
The founding of Wells Fargo by Henry Wells and William Fargo, their early courier business, and the company's expansion to the West Coast during the gold rush.
05:33 - Divisions of Wells Fargo
An overview of Wells Fargo's four main divisions: consumer banking, commercial banking, corporate and investment banking, and wealth and investment management.
07:38 - Financials of Wells Fargo
A breakdown of Wells Fargo's revenue, including net interest income and non-interest income, and how the company is still recovering from the scandal related to fraudulent cross-selling.
09:28 - Valuation of Wells Fargo
Alex Mason discusses the valuation of Wells Fargo's stock, which he believes is relatively cheap at 11 times earnings.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
In today's episode, I reveal the big project that I've been working on for the past year.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Today, I am excited to share with you the story of JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States. We'll look at the history of the bank, its business model, financials, and risks.
I believe that rising interest rates will ultimately benefit the bank as long as the overall system remains robust, and we'll look at potential impacts of interest rates on JP Morgan Chase's revenue and profits.
History of JP Morgan Chase [00:00:42]
Business Model of JP Morgan Chase [00:03:39]
Financials and Risks of JP Morgan Chase [00:07:18]
Interest Rates and Revenue Growth [00:09:06]
JP Morgan Chase Stock Price [00:10:46]
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Today we discuss the history, business model, and financials of NVR Inc, a home builder, to determine if it is a potentially good investment for individual investors. We go over the company's financials, including their revenues, home building income, and net income, including the fact that NVR's net income has doubled (!!) over the past couple of years, and their earnings per share have been increasing rapidly. We also look at the risks of this cyclical company.
History of NVR: [00:00:00]
Business Model: [00:08:07]
Financials: [00:08:58]
NVR Inc. Risks and Conclusion: [00:14:34]
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Macy's is one of the iconic American department stores that has survived over the decades, even after rapid consolidation in the industry. Although the company has an impressive past, the finances of the company struggled during the pandemic, but have since rebounded. Can Macy's offer a compelling return to investors today, given it's cheap valuation?
00:00 - Intro
00:49 - History
03:49 - Business Model
07:07 - Financials
13:08 - Valuation and Final Thoughts
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Alphabet, parent company of Google is a tech juggernaut. While starting with one powerful product - Search - the company has continued to innovate over the last two decades. Now, its reach expands into nearly every corner of the internet, from Maps, to Gmail, and more. The business also has 400 subsidiaries which explore the business potential of everything from artificial intelligence, to self-driving cars, to solutions for aging.
0:00 - World's Greatest Knowledge Company
1:34 - History
11:46 - Business Model
17:27 - Financials
25:44 - Risks
28:12 - Yup, This is the One...
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
https://stockstoryteller.com/podcast/
Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Bed Bath and Beyond was once a great brick and mortar retailer, but now it is on the verge of bankruptcy. How did this happen? What is the company's story, and how did it rise to prominence and what caused its decline? In today's episode we explore these questions from the investor's perspective.
0:00 - Bed Bath and Bankrupt
1:32 - History
14:00 - Business Model
15:27 - Financials
20:06 - Email with a Listener
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
I'm back! Happy 2023!!
I want to start the year off by talking a bit about the philosophy of financial independence, and what the various phases are. I hope you find this useful as you continue down your investing journey, in whatever phase you're in.
-Alex
Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Hey, what's up? It's been a little while, so I came to say hello 🙂 Today we're going to discuss what's happening in the market today, specifically some stocks that I think are definitely undervalued at this point. I also discuss what's been going on with me lately!
🎧 Listen to 200+ episodes on other companies and mental models:
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Banks are where our money lives. But with the rise of fintech companies and cryptocurrencies, is that all going to change? Today we explore how companies like Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup compete with the likes of SoFi, PayPal, and more. Is the FinTech revolution going to change banking?
0:00 - Where Does Money Live?
1:10 - What Is A Bank, Anyway?
4:35 - The Big Ones
5:02 - FinTech's Rise
6:54 - No Fear
10:43 - The Bottom Line
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Starbucks is known the world over for its gourmet coffee. It's branding is iconic and it sells billions of dollars worth of coffee every year. But is the company still what it used to be? Can Starbucks keep it's magic alive...and what does that mean for future investors in the stock?
0:00 - We LOVE Coffee...
1:01 - The Brew Begins
2:36 - How It Was Different
3:44 - Growth
5:35 - Investor Returns
6:14 - Business Issues Today
8:43 - What Can They Do?
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Today we'll look at some of my favorite investing books and why they're great. Each book has its own strengths, and is appropriate for different steps on your investing journey. Check out the links below!
Book Links:
The Intelligent Investor
One Up On Wall Street
Beating The Street
The Single Best Investment
Quality Investing
The Motley Fool Investment Guide
The Future For Investors
Financial Statements
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
0:40 - The Intelligent Investor
2:22 - One Up On Wall Street
3:51 - Beating The Street
4:41 - The Single Best Investment
5:23 - Quality Investing
6:22 - The Motley Fool Investment Guide
7:37 - The Future For Investors
9:35 - Financial Statements
11:07 - Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Today we're discussing insurance company Progressive (PGR). Known for its iconic advertising characters, Progressive Insurance is one of the faster growing publicly traded auto insurance stocks. In this episode we learn the state of Progressive's current business, and highlight some aspects of its growth profile.
0:00 - The Commercials
0:50 - Why They Grew
2:00 - Financial Results
5:11 - Risks
7:03 - The Dividend Policy
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
MetLife hasn't always been publicly traded. In fact, it was a private company mutually owned by its policy holders until 2000. How has the stock done since then? And how could you possibly own thousands of dollars worth of MetLife stock without every buying it?
0:00 - What Does MetLife Do?
0:50 - How It Got Started
1:50 - Demutualization
3:38 - MetLife Today
7:21 - How Much Could You Have Made?
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
What is the greatest stock in the history of the stock market? I've found the answer...and am so excited to share my findings with you! The answer might surprise you.
0:00 - How It Started...
2:01 - What You Would Think
2:45 - Mental Model: Availability Bias
3:42 - Company Background
7:01 - What Really Happened
13:00 - Putting It Together
24:55 - Total Return
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Aflac is famous for its duck commercials, but what does the business actually do? This U.S. provider actually makes a lot of money in Japan, and does so by selling cancer insurance as well as other types of insurance products.
0:00 - The Returns
1:00 - What Do They Do?
2:04 - Aflac History
4:08 - Financials
5:17 - Why Is This Happening?
6:57 - Valuation
7:40 - The Good Part
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
It's hard trying to figure out where to invest your money sometimes. There's information coming from everywhere. Here's a simple framework you can go by when figuring out where to allocate your next dollar toward investments.
0:00 - The Problem
0:52 - The Pyramid
1:45 - Pyramid Level 1
2:43 - Pyramid Level 2
3:29 - Pyramid Level 3
4:41 - Pyramid Level 4
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Disney is a company that many love and are still customers of, though the business itself has been undergoing a big transformation in recent years. Although the pandemic hurt the company financially because of closed theme parks, the business is making a comeback in this segment. They are also investing heavily in the Disney+ platform, which is beginning to bear fruit and is likely to become profitable within the next few years.
0:00 - But Why...?
0:20 - The Stock
2:02 - 2021 Annual Report Notes
6:05 - Historical Earnings
7:33 - How It Doubles
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Netflix took the world by storm in the last decade, transforming itself from a small company that mailed DVDs to a household name with a plethora of streaming content. Recent competitive pressures have forced the company to rethink their business model. Will they survive? Do investors have a shot at making money from here?
0:00 - Netflix
0:30 - The Stock
2:00 - Management's Focus
4:14 - Bill Ackman
6:45 - 2021 Annual Report
9:10 - Quick Valuation
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Bear markets bring stock prices down. Everyone gets that. But what if there was a way to not only stabilize your returns, but actually increase them through bear markets? Today's episode draws on research from Wharton professor Dr. Jeremy Siegel, in his fantastic book The Future For Investors:
Check out the book here:
https://www.amazon.com/Future-Investors-Tried-True-Triumph/dp/140008198X/ref=asc_df_140008198X/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=312006100296&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=11733129490204387519&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9051734&hvtargid=pla-470265575929&psc=1
0:00 - Boost Returns
1:01 - How It Works
2:31 - Philip Morris Example
4:50 - Kroger Example
7:11 - Kroger Returns
10:03 - Bonus Insights
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Capital gains aren't the only way to make money from stocks. And it's not just through dividends either. There are actually five ways investors make money from stocks, and we'll learn about each of them and the concept of total return.
Note: we don't cover options, which are an entirely different animal and a different way to leverage the stock market to make money.
0:00 - Just One Piece
0:46 - Method #1
1:14 - Method #2
1:48 - Method #3
3:45 - Method #4
4:54 - Method #5
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
I Bonds are now offering over 9.6% interest - but it is worth it? Today's episode covers the basics as well as the nuances of this passive income opportunity.
0:00 - Passive Income Now
0:25 - The Basics
1:45 - How I Bonds Work
2:51 - An Example
4:21 - Other Factors
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Microsoft is well known for their prowess in the cloud computing space as well as their gaming division. But there's more to the company than meets the eye. What is Microsoft's true strategic advantage? We cover this secret in today's video.
0:00 - Microsoft is one of The Best
0:45 - Some Facts
1:42 - People Forget This
4:12 - More Advantages
5:45 - Satya's Quote
6:57 - Success In Spite Of
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
New investors do this all the time. They see a new investment and get really excited about it. Here's what to think about.
0:00 - The Problem
1:50 - What We Can Do
2:50 - Two Examples
3:35 - Data Behind The Examples
5:39 - NEVER Forget This
6:45 - IPO Data
7:55 - The Questions to Ask
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
McDonald's was once the most loved fast food brand in America. They practically invented modern fast food. But times have changed. A lot of people are eating healthier, and many more fast casual and affordable food options are out there. So as investors, we have to ask ourselves the question - why does McDonald's still exist? And will they thrive in the future? That's exactly what we're going to find out right now.
0:00 - Why Does McDonalds Still Exist?
0:45 - How Did McDonalds Get Started?
2:44 - How McDonalds Makes Money
4:50 - Franchisees
6:07 - Don't Count Them Out Yet
7:07 - Recent Financials
7:45 - The Secret Sauce
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
It’s not enough to look at a stock and decide whether it's a buy or not. We have to look at it in context with other investing opportunities. Let’s look at Hyatt stock and compare it to its rival Marriott, in order to find out which one is the better buy.
Link to Marriott podcast: https://stockstoryteller.com/mar/
0:00 - One Analysis Is Not Enough
1:03 - Factor #1
3:16 - Factor #2
4:28 - Factor #3
7:10 - Factors Worth Considering
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
As one of largest hotel chains in the world, Hyatt has become known for its luxury brands in both the Americas and across the world. But is the stock as good as the business seems? Today we’re covering the history, business model, and financials of Hyatt Hotels ($H).
0:00 - On Vacation!
0:50 - How Did Hyatt Get Started?
6:01 - Business Model
7:21 - Financials
9:15 - Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold?
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Every intelligent investor wants to know the key principles they need to see success with their investments. Today, we talk about one simple principle that is often overlooked, and discuss some examples (and an anti-example) of this principle in action.
0:00 - It’s Hard Enough
1:21 - An Example With Chocolate
3:33 - How It Works
5:09 - The Anti-Example
6:28 - The Principle In Action (Making Money)
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Over the past century, Harley-Davidson has made a name for itself as an iconic American motorcycle brand. It helped grow and maintain biker culture all over the world.
Where does Harley-Davidson come from, and from an investor’s perspective, what kinds of things should we think about with this business? Today we look at the history, business model, and financials of Harley-Davidson.
0:00 - The Iconic Brand
1:25 - How Did Harley-Davidson Get Started?
4:58 - Harley-Davidson’s Business Model
6:09 - Financials
9:01 - Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold?
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What are the 5 types of investors? Whether you invest in stocks, real estate, crypto, etc. you NEED to understand these investor archetypes, and the pros and cons of each.
0:00 - Different Investors Have Different Approaches
0:44 - Type #1
2:17 - Type #2
4:00 - Type #3
5:28 - Type #4
6:40 - Type #5
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Why Church and Dwight? That’s where Arm and Hammer baking soda, Trojan condoms, First Response pregnancy tests, Xtra laundry detergent, and so many other products come from. They make so many things that you and I probably use every day. Today we’ll learn about the history, business model, and financials of Church and Dwight, and try to understand whether or not the stock is a good buy today.
0:00 - Why Church and Dwight?
0:54 - How Did Broadcom Get Started?
3:24 - Broadcom’s Business Model
5:09 - Financials
7:42 - Valuation
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Broadcom is all about connectivity. Everything from Wifi Routers, to smartphones, to data centers use their products. Today we’ll learn about the history, business model, and financials of Broadcom (formerly Avago Technologies).
0:00 - Why Broadcom?
0:58 - How Did Broadcom Get Started?
3:30 - Broadcom’s Business Model
5:58 - Financials
9:20 - What’s the Growth Mechanism?
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Big tech, now known more commonly by names such as Apple and Amazon, used to simply be ‘IBM’. International Business Machines began a huge wave of computer science innovation and ushered the world into a new era. Today we discuss the history, business model, and financials of IBM, and whether or not the stock might make a good investment.
0:00 - Big Blue
0:50 - How Did IBM Get Started?
6:30 - IBM’s Business Model
8:06 - Financials
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Nvidia has made a name for itself in the arena of graphic cards, having invented the GPU. They’ve expanded into professional visualization, the auto market, and are helping power the artificial intelligence revolution. Today we learn about the history, business model, and financials of Nvidia ($NVDA).
0:00 - Start
2:30 - How Did Nvidia Get Started?
5:00 - Nvidia’s Business Model
7:00 - Financials
15:32 - Buy, Sell, or Hold?
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Intel has helped power the rise of the personal computer, birthing the microprocessor and bringing computers to life. Today we’re studying the history, business model, and financials of Intel Corporation ($INTC).
0:00 - Start
0:56 - How Did Intel Get Started?
4:08 - Intel’s Business Model
8:16 - Financials
10:40 - Buy, Sell, or Hold?
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Disclaimer: Everything shared is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing I share on this platform should be construed as financial, tax, or legal advice. Please consult a competent professional who can assist with your specific needs and circumstances.
Advanced Micro Devices started out as just a small competitor to its bigger brother, Intel. After developing competing microprocessors, AMD made a name for itself and began to flourish as a company. In today’s episode, we’ll look at the history, business model, and financials of Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD).
0:00 - Start
1:00 - How Did AMD Get Started?
7:11 - AMD’s Business Model
9:24 - Financials
12:30 - Buy, Sell, or Hold?
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Where did Lowe’s come from and how did they come to become a huge player in the home improvement space? Today we look at the history, business model, and financials for Home Depot’s biggest competitor, Lowe’s.
0:00 - Start
1:13 - How Did Lowe’s Get Started?
6:06 - Lowe’s Business Model
7:32 - Financials
11:54 - Buy, Sell, or Hold?
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When we commit to something, we’re more likely to follow through with it. This is especially true when we commit for long periods of time. But how does this work for or against us as investors? We explore this concept in today’s show.
Link to Robert Cialdini’s book Influence here:
https://tinyurl.com/rv6ahkj4
0:00 - Start
3:09 - My Failure With The Mental Model
4:25 - Bill Ackman’s Decision
5:38 - Logic Behind Netflix Decision
7:00 - An Idea To Apply
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Home Depot has dominated the home improvement industry, but how did it happen? In today’s episode we look at Home Depot’s modest beginnings, how it grew into a powerhouse, and what the business offers for investors today.
0:00 - Start
3:00 - Home Depot Beginnings
5:10 - How Home Depot Works
7:54 - Financials
13:20 - Home Depot Historical Returns
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As an investor, failure at some point is inevitable…especially when you’re just getting started! What separates great investors from those who never make money is what you LEARN from your failures.
This one has been a long time in the making, but today we look at not only what my worst investment has been, but what lessons you can take from my experience.
0:00 - Start
1:25 - Buying The Stock
6:15 - Lesson #1
6:52 - Lesson #2
8:12 - Lesson #3
9:04 - Lesson #4
10:20 - Lesson #5
11:23 - Lesson #6
13:12 - Recap
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Can you imagine a world without light? Electricity is an essential part of modern life, and lighting products play an essential role in it. Acuity Brands is one of the largest lighting manufacturers in North America - let’s learn about their history and economic characteristics in today’s episode.
0:00 - Start
1:11 - How Did Acuity Brands Get Started?
5:38 - Acuity’s Business Model
9:25 - Financials
11:43 - Final Thoughts On Acuity Brands
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What is Etsy’s business model and how does it make money? Though a few weeks ago we broadly covered this business, today we’re doing a deeper dive to understand some of the financials in order to understand Etsy’s investment thesis.
0:00 - Start
3:15 - What Does Etsy Do?
8:20 - Metcalfe’s Law
13:50 - Fundamentals
17:40 - Return On Equity
22:40 - Return On Invested Capital
29:43 - Risks
31:03 - Final Thoughts On Etsy
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What is consulting, and how did one of the largest consulting firms in America get its start? Find out in today’s episode, as we explore the history, business model, and financials of Accenture.
0:00 - Start
1:42 - The Big 8
3:42 - Trouble Was Brewing
6:31 - Change Specialists
10:29 - Financials
16:18 - Final Thoughts On Accenture
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How do we choose between stocks when the whole market is down? Often, during corrections, there are multiple seemingly good stocks to buy. How do we think about the trade-offs?
0:00 - Start
2:35 - Deciding Between Two Stocks
5:45 - Avoiding Investor FOMO
7:18 - Not Every Stock Drops Proportionally
9:08 - The Mental Model At Play Here
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Some businesses rise on their own as the result of a spin-off from a larger business. AbbVie is one of these! In today’s episode we learn about what AbbVie has going for it as well as some of the risks investors should consider.
0:00 - Start
1:18 - How Did AbbVie Get Started?
2:10 - Tax Inversions
3:50 - How The Business Works
8:08 - Financials
14:35 - Final Thoughts On AbbVie
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Sector rotation is a stock market strategy that some investors believe will increase returns. Let’s look at the basics today and learn what it is and how we can consider applying it to our portfolio.
0:00 - Start
1:15 - What Are Stock Market Sectors?
3:52 - Sector Rotation Basics
5:30 - Sector SPDRs
7:07 - Final Thoughts On Sector Rotation
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Few companies can say that they’re truly built for a pandemic - Abbott Laboratories is one of these. With products ranging from COVID tests to medical devices to nutrition products, Abbott is a diversified large cap with international operations and a solid growth rate.
0:00 - Start
2:00 - History of Abbott
5:17 - Abbott’s Business Model
7:27 - Financials
14:30 - Final Thoughts On Abbott
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Staying in hotels, motels, and other similar businesses has been the norm for travelers for many decades. AirBnB changed that. Now, you can rent someone’s existing real estate on a nightly basis - whether it’s a condo on a Hawaiian island, a cabin in the woods, or simply a home in a regular suburban neighborhood. Learn about AirBnB’s history, financials, and business model in this episode.
0:00 - Start
2:15 - How Did AirBnB Get Started?
7:20 - AirBnB’s Business Model
9:00 - Financials
13:10 - What Are The Risks With AirBnB?
14:38 - Final Thoughts On AirBnB
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When you think negatively about a person or a company just because it’s associated with something else you consider negative, you’re experiencing The Horns Effect. It’s a mental model that biases you against something just because of its association with something else. Learn today how we can apply this as investors.
0:00 - Start
1:20 - Why Mental Models?
1:50 - Mental Model Definition
3:21 - Application to Investing
4:42 - What Happens When Rates Rise
5:06 - Taking Advantage Of This Information
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Can project management tasks ever be easy and fun? Atlassian Corporation thinks so. With tools like Jira and Confluence, it becomes easier to manage large projects within teams. In today’s episode we’re learning about a fast growing software-as-a-service (SaaS) company that focuses on building work productivity tools.
02:30 - How Did Atlassian Get Started?
05:24 - Atlassian’s Business Model
09:35 - Financials
13:55 - What Are The Risks With Atlassian?
15:32 - Final Thoughts On Atlassian
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The stock market has been a crazy place in recent weeks! Growth stocks are down, as well as the general market. Inflation is up. Interest rates are going up. And there’s a war that Russia is waging against Ukraine. Today I’m joined by my wife where we discuss all of these topics, and more.
0:00 - Start
2:30 - Interest Rates and Inflation
5:15 - Stocks We’re Looking At Now?
12:00 - Withdrawal Strategies
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What characteristics does gold have compared to stocks, how do we understand its value, and what are the best ways to own it? All of these questions and more are answered on today’s episode with precious metals expert David McAlvany.
David runs the McAlvany family of companies, including International Collectors Associates as well as Vaulted.
Interested in investing in high quality gold? Check out the Vaulted app where you can invest with as little as $5:
https://vaulted.com/
See here for info on taxes, fees, gold quality, and other FAQs:
https://vaulted.com/faq/
5:15 - Why Precious Metals?
11:00 - Gold or Bonds For Smoothing Out Volatility
16:20 - Ways To Own Gold Today
23:20 - Hypothecation
29:43 - Gold vs Other Metals
36:50 - What is the intrinsic value of gold?
48:48 - Costs To Own Gold
56:00 - Wrapping Up
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Shopify is making it easier for people to buy and sell things online. Learn about the fundamentals of Shopify's business and its history.
01:23 - How Shopify Got Started
04:00 - How Shopify Works
08:12 - Does Shopify Have A Competitive Advantage?
11:11 - Shopify’s Financials
17:00 - What Are The Risks Of Investing In Shopify?
18:00 - Shopify’s Similar Approach To Alphabet
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The Halo Effect is a mental model that distorts reality in your mind...see how it applies to the investing process in today's video.
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Etsy is quickly growing two-sided marketplace built specifically to help people find unique goods. Learn about the fundamentals of Etsy's business and its history.
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How do you become financially independent at a young age? My wife and I did it by 30 years old, and I want to show you how.
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Google has been an amazingly successful stock for investors, but can it continue its upward trajectory? Learn about the fundamentals of Alphabet's business.
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After a hiatus, I'm back! And I'm SO ready and excited for what 2022 has to hold for you, for me, and for this show.
Let's kick the year off right and learn about some more companies and mental models!
Check out the new Stock Stories YouTube channel! First video episode drops 2/2:
Stock Stories - YouTube
Check out the new Stock Stories YouTube channel!
I'm looking for an inner circle of listeners to help shape the future of the show (5 people max). Apply by sending me an email at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Thanks,
Alex
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Food is something we all rely on but often don't think about from an economic perspective. Where does it come from? How does it make it onto our grocery store shelves? Today's company focuses on creating products that help farmers create what we need to survive - food.
Click here to learn more about Stock Stories Premium (bonus episodes).
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We did it....and I want to help you do it too.
Email or DM me:
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The original Trinity Study
The updated Trinity Study (by Wade Pfau)
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Delicious burritos. Think fast. What’s the first thing you thought of after reading those two words? If you live in the United States, you probably thought about Chipotle.
Today’s episode is about the dominant Mexican-style fast casual restaurant in America - how it started, what its business model is, and how we should think about it as potential investors. Welcome to Stock Stories.
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The more often a task is repeated, the less time and effort it takes to accomplish the same task. In today’s episode we explore this concept and see how it applies to our practice as investors.
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What happens when you merge modern technology with financial services? You get companies like SoFi. With quick-moving applications that approve financial transactions in minutes instead of days, SoFi is on the front line of modernizing banking, particularly for affluent consumers.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of SoFi.
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Although many companies now operate in the payments space, PayPal started back when fast-growing access to the internet was just beginning. Now PayPal does much more than facilitate typical digital transactions between consumers and businesses.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of PayPal.
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Auctions on the internet. Back in the 1990s it was a new thing. eBay pioneered it, and grew to dominate the ecommerce landscape - for a time. But along the way it picked up as well as sold a variety of businesses, which helped bolster its returns to shareholders.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of eBay.
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Finding the strength to press on in spite of obstacles is both a personal characteristic as well as one that can be observed in companies themselves.
In today's episode we explore the general concept of endurance, and then apply it to how we look at markets as individual investors.
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Many people have heard of Warren Buffett, but much fewer know the story behind his legendary company, Berkshire Hathaway. As one of the most successful businesses and stocks of all time, it has operations ranging from insurance to railroads to energy.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Berkshire Hathaway.
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In part III of this series we looked at assets from the perspective of how they appreciate or depreciate, and whether or not they provide income. But how else do we make sense of the universe of investment options?
In today's episode we learn about the three types of assets as well as their benefits and drawbacks:
- Private Businesses
- Real Assets
- Paper Assets
You can also read along with this series on stockstoryteller.com.
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The online sports betting industry is relatively young, and there are only a few key players so far in this market. One of them is DraftKings, a company that connects sports fans who want to compete for money based on a game’s outcome.
Today’s episode covers the history of DraftKings and the online sports betting industry. We also have a BIG announcement, and reflect on some of my past stock market analysis from older episodes.
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With the vision of creating a new kind of store on the internet, Jeff Bezos started selling books, music, then...everything. Gradually expanding into cloud computing and artificial intelligence, Amazon has become one of the world’s tech juggernauts.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Amazon.
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Computers are increasingly becoming integral parts of our everyday lives; more than ever before. Every piece of software is run by a series of algorithms that makes decisions using different variables. How should we think about this and how can it benefit us as investors?
In today's episode we explore the general concept of an algorithm, and then apply it to how we look at markets as individual investors.
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Nike is the largest footwear company in the world and it's Swoosh logo and slogans like "Just Do It" have become a big part of popular culture. Athletes around the world use their products, inspiring millions to do the same.
2019 Annual Report
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We know that compounding is a powerful force and the only way that money really grows. How do we harness this power though? What actually is growing? The answer is assets.
In today's episode we learn assets from the perspective of how it changes in value over time and its income producing potential:
- Consumption Items
- Depreciating Assets That Produce Income
- Growing Assets
- Growing Assets That Produce Income
You can also read along with this series on stockstoryteller.com.
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This is one of the most successful firms on the planet. 3% of all liquid consumed on Earth (including tap water) is sold by The Coca-Cola Company. Today's episode is somewhat longer than usual - simply because, with a history and business model like this, there are a lot of great things to study. We get into how Coca-Cola came to be, and how the company has innovated throughout the decades to remain successful. We also discuss the challenges that the company faces going forward and its attractiveness as an investment.
Here is a link to a great video profile that National Geographic did on how Coca-Cola's products are made and packaged.
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If you’re a teacher or educator, you’re in a unique position to empower young minds with knowledge and insight. This is true when it comes to any subject, but also with money and investing. How about investing for your retirement though? How do you go about doing it if you don’t know where to start?
In today's episode we cover how to get started investing from the educator’s perspective. We discuss:
- Investing Basics
- Pensions
- Account Types, like 403(b), 457, Traditional IRA, Roth IRA
- And more!
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Although the self-storage industry is relatively new, a few companies have grown to dominate the space over the past few decades. The biggest player is Public Storage (PSA), a company with over 2,500 rental locations across the U.S. and Europe. But did this industry begin, let alone this company? How do we think about investing in a business like this?
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Public Storage.
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What is an order of magnitude? It’s a concept that defines how big or small something is, usually to the power of 10.
In today's episode we cover the mental model of order of magnitude, including the general concept behind it and how we can apply it as an investor.
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D.R. Horton and Lennar aren’t the only games in town when it comes to home building. PulteGroup is another serious competitor that is gaining a foothold in the first time home buyer market. After the Great Recession, management has made some interesting decisions to try to move the company forward.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of PulteGroup.
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The Pyramids at Giza. The Hanging Gardens of Babylon. These were just a few of the wonders of the ancient world. Centuries later, Albert Einstein called compounding the 8th wonder of the world.
In today's episode we learn about the concept of compound interest, and break it down into its three components:
- Amount invested
- Time invested
- Rate of return
Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report
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Today Beko Jang, of Value Investor TV and I wrap up our conversation of Lennar Corporation, the large homebuilder. Instead of talking about big picture concepts like competitive advantage and company history, we’re going deep into the numbers.
In today's episode we discuss:
- Lennar’s massive revenue growth in the last few years
- Why the price of lumber is key for this business
- Lennar’s balance sheet and capital allocation policies
- … and much more!
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Today’s episode features another great conversation between myself and Beko Jang, one of the hosts of the great podcast Value Investor TV. We’re breaking down Lennar, a competitor to D.R. Horton and one of America’s largest home builders.
In today's episode we discuss:
- The History of Lennar Corporation
- Does Lennar have a competitive advantage?
- On the ground research of Lennar’s homes
- … and much more!
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One of the ways we get better at investing is through conversation with other investors. Today’s episode features a great conversation between myself and Beko Jang, one of the hosts of the great podcast Value Investor TV.
In today's episode we discuss:
- Our first investments ever!
- What it’s like being a podcast host
- Who we look up to in the investing/entrepreneur space
- … and much more!
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What are power laws? Effectively, it’s when one variable changes substantially when another variable changes just a little. Put in business terms, a disproportionate amount of the rewards go to those at the top.
In today's episode we cover the mental model of power laws, including the general concept behind it and how we can apply it as an investor.
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We review what we’ve learned in the past year on the show. We’ve covered a lot of ground! We also talk about how the podcast has grown and some exciting news for the future. Stick around until the end of the episode to learn more.
In today’s episode we’ll cover:
- What the show produced this past year. How did we grow as investors?
- Total show growth, including how we’re doing in the two major podcast directories
- Big Announcements!! (make sure you stick around until the end of the episode)
Episodes mentioned:
- Episode 100 - 100 Stock Investing Lessons
- Episode 112 - 6 Investing Lessons In Times Of Crisis - What I’m Thinking About Right Now
- Episode 126 - Marvin Barron - Tracking Political Stocks with FinePrint
- Episode 138 - Investing In Space with Aaron Burnett of Spaced Ventures
- Episode 147 - 8 Mistakes of Beginning Investors
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As America’s largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton has been focused on expanding one of the most central aspects of American culture and the American Dream - the home. By focusing on modest customization at reasonable prices, they’ve grown into a national brand while operating in a highly cyclical industry.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of D. R. Horton.
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Today, we’re going to take it back to basics. A lot of times when people talk about investing they jump right into the “what” and the “how”. Well, what about the why? Today’s episode discusses the three things you can do with money. You can either:
Spend It
Give It Away
Save It/Invest It
The choice is yours! Optimizing between these three things is critical in order to become a successful investor.
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In the modern era, McCormick is one of those companies that focuses on selling spices, seasonings, and related products like French’s Mustard and Cholula Hot Sauce. They sell to both businesses and everyday consumers like you and me. Not to mention, they sell in over 160 countries across the globe!
In today's episode we cover the business model and financials of McCormick & Co., as well as putting everything together to synthesize what we’ve learned about the business.
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Aside from the commodities we know them as today, spice and seasonings were once fought for by kings and treasured by merchants. They were the precursor to modern currency and have spanned all cultures across the globe.
In the modern era, McCormick is one of those companies that focuses on selling spices, seasonings, and related products.
In today's episode we cover the history of the spice industry as well as the history of McCormick & Co.
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Utility is what relates to something’s function or value. When something has utility, it has inherent or perceived usefulness to you.
In today's episode we cover the mental model of utility, both in a general sense as well as in the context of investing. At the end of the episode, we review Tai Lopez’s 4 Ms of Motivation.
Today’s Sponsor: Finnyvest
At Finnyvest you can get an unbiased, rules-based bull- and bear-case analyses of US stocks and funds. Rules-based in key—as the same criteria are applied to all stocks (or funds)—so you know you’re not getting just another person’s opinion. The Finny Score then tallies up the bull- and the bear-case using a simple scoring methodology between 0 and 100.
Just go to askfinny.com/link/alex to try Finnyvest for 7 days for free, and get 20% off the regular price (just $80 for an annual subscription).
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Snacks have become a huge part of the modern food system. Instead of meals cooked from raw ingredients, there are now a plethora of packaged foods available all over the world. Mondelez International is one of the dominant companies in this space, selling everything from Oreo cookies to Ritz crackers to Trident gum.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Mondelez International.
Today’s Sponsor: Finnyvest
At Finnyvest you can get an unbiased, rules-based bull- and bear-case analyses of US stocks and funds. Rules-based in key—as the same criteria are applied to all stocks (or funds)—so you know you’re not getting just another person’s opinion. The Finny Score then tallies up the bull- and the bear-case using a simple scoring methodology between 0 and 100.
Just go to askfinny.com/link/alex to try Finnyvest for 7 days for free, and get 20% off the regular price (just $80 for an annual subscription).
Enjoy the show? Rate and Review to share your thoughts:
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GameStop has made some waves in recent weeks. Last week we talked about the general business, including its history and overall business models and financials. Today we wrap up our analysis of the business, discuss what a short squeeze is, and talk about the recent market volatility surrounding the stock.
Today’s Sponsor: Finnyvest
At Finnyvest you can get an unbiased, rules-based bull- and bear-case analyses of US stocks and funds. Rules-based in key—as the same criteria are applied to all stocks (or funds)—so you know you’re not getting just another person’s opinion. The Finny Score then tallies up the bull- and the bear-case using a simple scoring methodology between 0 and 100.
Just go to askfinny.com/link/alex to try Finnyvest for 7 days for free, and get 20% off the regular price (just $80 for an annual subscription).
Enjoy the show? Rate and Review:
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GameStop has made some waves in recent weeks. After Reddit investors began piling into the stock, the company made headlines because of the stock’s meteoric rise and subsequent crash. What is the nature of the company and what do they do? How has business been for this game retailer?
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, and financials of GameStop.
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Facing conflict is always difficult. Facing conflicts on multiple sides is even harder. When companies face multiple headwinds and their attention and capital is diverted, we know as investors to take a close look at the risks. We can also apply this principle to looking at a company’s stock price through the lens of technical momentum (buyers and sellers are always fighting to change the current stock price).
In today's episode we cover the mental model of the Two Front War.
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Brought together by conglomerate JAB Holdings in 2018, gourmet coffee and beverage giant Keurig Dr Pepper was born in its current form. Although there is a growing diversity of brands, Keurig coffee and Dr Pepper soda are still the primary drivers of revenue.
In today's episode we cover the business model of the Keurig Dr. Pepper, as well as discuss its financials. We then spend some time synthesizing the information we’ve learned so far and touch on valuation.
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Nestled in a small Vermont town, entrepreneur Bob Stiller found delicious, gourmet coffee, and he was determined to share it with the world. By joining forces with another up and coming coffee start up, Keurig became a nationwide brand name and coffee makers started showing up in office break rooms and home kitchens everywhere.
In today's episode we cover the history of the gourmet coffee business that ultimately became one half of Keurig Dr. Pepper.
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Dr. Pepper began as a pharmacist’s concoction in the small town of Waco, TX. Over time its popularity grew and spread around the United States. Other brands like 7-Up and Schweppes also grew in influence. These brands, and many others were combined and broken up again various times and corporate influencers fought for control over the soda market.
In today's episode we cover the history of the carbonated beverage business that ultimately became one half of Keurig Dr. Pepper.
Check out these related episodes:
Coca-Cola (KO) -Episode 39PepsiCo (PEP) -Episode 41
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Salesforce is the leader in CRM (customer relationship management) software. By focusing on the cloud from the industry’s infancy, they’ve grown to become a major business that serves most of America’s large companies.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Salesforce.
SAP (SAP) - episode 145Microsoft (MSFT) Part I - episode 90Microsoft (MSFT) Part II - episode 92
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Although Costco didn’t invest the wholesale concept, one might think that they have perfected it. One of only a few companies able to compete with Walmart’s Sam’s Club, Costco focuses on providing quality products to people at very low prices, and they do it by selling in bulk with a “no frills” approach.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Costco.
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This year, I learned a lot happened. Not just in the investment world, but in the world at large. In today's episode, we take a moment to reflect on major events of 2020, a bit about how I'm thinking about things going forward, and a quick update about the show. Also, there's a few listener shout outs! Thank you for your reviews this year!
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O’Reilly Automotive has been a consistent grower in the auto parts space since it began in Springfield, Missouri decades ago. Of the big three in this space (the other two being AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts), O’Reilly has the most evenly split business between commercial and DIY customers. They don’t pay dividends but consistently return a TON of money back to shareholders through share buybacks.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY).
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Cause and effect is a generally understood principle - one thing happens and that causes another thing to happen. But, what about when the effect comes back to influence the cause? This is known as a feedback loop.
In today's episode we explore the general concept of a feedback loop, and then apply it to how we look at markets as individual investors.
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Advance Auto Parts is a specialty auto parts retailer in the United States. They sell most of their product to commercial customers, but have a retail portion of their business as well. They've gone through multiple transformations over the years, and have grown mostly as a result of acquiring other smaller auto parts companies.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of Advance Auto Parts (AAP).
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Tesla has taken the auto world by storm by designing and producing a suite of high tech electric vehicles, as well as a system of software and energy products to complement them. Over time, Elon Musk and his team have transformed the company from a small startup with a single car to a fast growing and polarizing company that has attracted a lot of attention in recent years.
In today's episode we cover the business model, financials, and discuss Tesla’s future outlook. For a review of Tesla’s history, check out episode 150.
Want to say hi? Send me a DM on Instagram @stockstoryteller or an email at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
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Tesla has taken the auto world by storm by designing and producing a suite of high tech electric vehicles, as well as a system of software and energy products to complement them. Over time, Elon Musk and his team have transformed the company from a small startup with a single car to a fast growing and polarizing company that has attracted a lot of attention in recent years.
In today's episode we cover the history of Tesla’s business. Come back next week for the full analysis...
Want to say hi? Send me a DM on Instagram @stockstoryteller or an email at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
Check out the new Stock Stories YouTube channel!
AutoZone is an auto parts retailer that created a niche for itself throughout the 1980’s and 1990’s. Through catering to DIY’ers, they’ve established themselves as a go to source for auto parts and advice. Though relatively mature in the U.S. market, there has been gradual expansion into Mexico and Brazil. While this company pays no dividends, one of the more interesting facts about it is the significant amount of money it returns to shareholders through share buybacks.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of AutoZone.
Want to say hi? Send me a DM on Instagram @stockstoryteller or an email at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
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General Motors became a powerhouse in the early 1900s and gave Henry Ford a run for his money. Boasting several brands, each tailored to certain socio-economic and demographics groups, GM achieved significant market share in the past. Now, the company has just four core brands and is trying to break into the electric vehicle and autonomous market.
In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of General Motors.
Want to say hi? Send me a DM on Instagram @stockstoryteller or an email at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
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These are some thoughts about what I wish I had known when I started investing. I could have paid more attention to these lessons and saved a lot of money. Because I made some of these mistakes, I am STILL paying for it in my portfolio. I don’t want you to go through what I went through.
I'd like to give a special shout out to some of my fellow investors out there who contributed their thoughts to this episode:
Harvir - @millenial_mogul_investing
Mabel - @girlsonthemoney (check out our interview in Episode 96)
Teri - @imaninvestor (check out our interview in Episode 91)
Hari and Beko - @valueinvestortv
The 8 mistakes, and their accompanying mental models are:
- Lack of Basic Financial Literacy (and lack of Mental Models as a general concept)
- Buying A Stock Because You Like the Product or Service (Endowment Effect)
- Placing Emphasis on Price, Not Value (Mere Exposure Effect)
- Placing Emphasis On Recent Stock Performance (Recency Bias, Scarcity)
- Failing to Recognize Cyclical Businesses and Business Cycles (Dunning-Kruger Effect)
- Lack of Patience With Capital Allocation (Action Bias)
- Overestimating or Underestimating a Business’ Competitive Advantage(s) (Mental Model: Confirmation, Mr. Market, Inversion)
- Outsourcing Your Thinking To Others (Mental Model: Availability Heuristic, First Principles Thinking)
Other episodes mentioned include:
Episode 4 - The Six Categories of Stocks
Episode 10 - Mental Model: Inversion
Episode 15 - Mental Model: Circle of Competence
Episode 26 - Mental Model: First Principles
Send me a direct message on Instagram with any comments, suggestions, or just to say hi @stockstoryteller. Or, you can email me at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com
Check out the new Stock Stories YouTube channel!
Multiplying anything by zero equals zero. It's a numerical truth that we learn when we're young and in school. Sadly, I think this concept gets applied to little more than math and people's homework when they're in formal education programs. How can we apply this concept beyond the numerical and theoretical?
Today's episode explores what happens when we take the concept of multiplying by zero and apply it to life and investing. We'll talk about:
- The basic definition of Multiplying By Zero
- An further explanation of the concept
- Putting the mental model in the context of the investor
Come say hi with a direct message on Instagram: @stockstoryteller, or send me a note at alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
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SAP - short for Systems, Applications, and Products, is a software company based in Germany. For decades, they have created software systems for businesses, and are most known for their Enterprise Resource Planning software, or ERP. By linking the needs and requirements of different sides of a business, SAP's software becomes a single solution that a lot of businesses rely on to run their daily operations. Today's episode explores the history, business model, financials, and valuation of this German multi-national.
Want to say hello? DM me on Instagram: @stockstoryteller. Or, send an email to alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
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Ventas is a REIT that operates at the intersection of real estate and healthcare. With over 1200 properties spread throughout the United States, they are one of the biggest nursing home and medical office landlords out there. We'll discuss Ventas' history, business model, and financials, as well as some closing thoughts.
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Digital Realty buys and operates buildings that house data centers. Data centers are physical locations where computer systems are stored. Companies pay DLR to store, protect, and route their data.
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Today we're talking about another REIT (REITs have definitely been on my mind lately!) Federal Realty is one of the oldest REITs in America and has one of the best dividend track records. In today's episode we explore the history, business model and financials of a company that has been focused on commercial retail - a challenging industry, to be sure.
We look at what Federal Realty is doing to position itself for future growth, as well as how it is dealing with current challenges related to COVID-19.
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Basic Idea: By aligning yourself in a certain domain with favorable characteristics, you are more likely to have greater flexibility and reap more rewards.
Today's mental model is called Seizing the Middle. Seizing the middle is all about options. Where can we put ourselves in life and business such that, in the future, we’re more likely to have a lot of options?
Check out Shane Parrish's website Farnam Street for excellent coverage of mental models.
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This week we're discussing the other Marriott spin-off. This company is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that is the largest lodging REIT in the U.S., and the largest owner of Marriott properties. They operate Marriott, Hyatt, and other branded hotels.
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A few weeks ago we discussed Marriott, one of the world's largest hotel chains. In that episode I mentioned that at one point, they spun off a few businesses. This is one of those businesses!
Marriott Vacations Worldwide is in the vacation club business, or timeshares, as they are more frequently known. We discuss how the timeshare industry works as well as details specific to the company.
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In last week's episode we discussed one of the few publicly traded space companies out there - Virgin Galactic. Well, what about all of the other start-up space companies that exist that aren't publicly traded? Is there a way to invest in them?
Today, I'm happy to share a conversation I had with entrepreneur Aaron Burnett, who has founded Spaced Ventures, a crowdfunding platform for space-focused start-ups.
We cover a lot of ground, including Aaron's story, how funding for private companies works behind the scenes way before an IPO happens, and the economic nature of the space industry (and also, what are the risks?)
Enjoy, and be sure to check out Spaced Ventures for more info.
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It's one of the few publicly traded space companies out there. Virgin Galactic's mission is to help the greater good of humanity through space. Though it's a vaguely described mission, Virgin has been putting their money where their mouth is by building space planes and actually launching them into orbit.
Now a revenue generating operation, let's look at one of billionaire Richard Branson's more highly publicized projects as of late, and develop a better understand of the business behind space tourism.
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Choose one thing, and you can't choose something else. Say no to one thing in order to say yes to another. This is the essence of opportunity cost, and it is a central idea in behavioral economics.
In this episode we take a look at what opportunity cost means from a holistic perspective as well as what this concept means for investors.
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With over 7,000 properties spread throughout the world, Marriott has become one of the biggest and most recognizable lodging brands out there. They have 30 different brands, each with their own distinct feel. Let's look at where Marriott came from and how we can understand this business from an investor's perspective.
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Macerich is one of the larger pure-play mall REITs in America, and they have several dozen properties scattered across the country. Though they have a good history of paying generous payouts to shareholders, is their very existence in trouble because of COVID-19 and the general trend of e-commerce?
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The modern mall has existed for only a century or so, but gathering places of commerce have existed for millenia. Simon Property Group has a large portfolio of quality commercial real estate spread throughout America and in countries around the world.
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If you live in Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, or Virginia, there is a good chance that you pay your electric or gas bill to Southern Company. As the second largest utility in the U.S., they serve well over 8.5 million customers.
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Flight or Flight is a powerful biological response to the way that we, and animals, respond to perceived threats. Either we're attacking something or we're running away from it. In this episode we cover how we can apply this mental model to our investing practice.
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With the largest fleet size in the world, American Airlines is one the few large "legacy" airlines. Although they suffered a big bankruptcy and merger with U.S. Airways as a result of the 2008 recession, they managed to survive. We discuss the present troubles due to COVID-19 and what shareholders could see next.
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Mattel is most known for Barbie, Hot Wheels, and American Girl, which are iconic toy brands it has made over the years. They also own the card game UNO and make various toys and games licensed from hit kid's movies.
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As one of the largest toy and game company's Hasbro makes classics like Monopoly, Jenga, and Twister. They also brands such as Transformers and My Little Pony, and license Disney's intellectual property to make toys and games (ex. Frozen or Star Wars). Even with Hasbro's storied history, can they continue to successfully create new brands in the era of digital gaming?
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Bottlenecks are limiting factors in our process - if we don't figure them out our results are limited no matter what else we do. Like many mental models, this can apply to a variety of situations, including how we manage our investment portfolios.
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Understanding what our political leaders are buying and selling for their own portfolios is important for transparency within any country's political and economic system. Alignment of interests is key.
Today's episode is an interview with investor and entrepreneur Marvin Barron, co-founder of FinePrint, a startup focused on tracking political stocks.
Over discussion covers a variety of topics, including:
- What is the STOCK Act and why does it matter?
- How political data is now being tracked by investors
- What is political risk?
- What can we learn from the investment behavior of our elected officials?
Connect with FinePrint at fineprintdata.com, or on Twitter @fineprintdata.
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Episode Summary
LiveNation provides concert venues around the world, bringing iconic musicians and artists to the stage. They manage concert venues, tours for artists, and are even involved in sports management and film production. They also generate revenue through Ticketmaster, the digital ticketing service.
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Fasteners are small, seemingly insignificant items that have a big impact on our everyday lives. They're everywhere - in furniture, cars, houses, planes, and the equipment used to make all of the things that we buy. Fastenal provides not only fasteners but sells safety products, cutting tools, and many other items as well. They seem to have a great company culture.
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Today, we tackle a listener question about Employee Stock Purchase Plans (ESPPs). What are they, how do they work, and when we use them to our advantage as investors?
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The largest food distributor in the U.S., Sysco provides both basic foods and ready to eat meals to restaurants, hospitals, nursing homes, schools, and universities. By becoming a large middleman in the industry, they are able to source foods from around the world to help create various menu options.
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Tractor Supply is a rural lifestyle retailer - the largest in the US. Their niche is as a one-stop shop for recreational farmers, ranchers and people in rural communities.
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Leverage is a powerful tool, and how one can effectively multiply their efforts. "Give me a long enough lever, and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I will move the world" exclaimed Archimedes. There are many forms of leverage, including:
- Financial (debt)
- Time
- Technology
- Communications/Relationships
- Knowledge
Here is a link to Todd Tresidder's site, the Financial Mentor.
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Famous for their agricultural and industrial equipment, Deere & Co. has produced products for farmers and industrial customers for almost two centuries. They continue to play an important role in the economy today with farm, forestry, and construction equipment.
History (03:02)
Business Overview (14:55)
Financials (18:58)
Closing Thoughts (23:55)
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CAT is one of the world's largest industrial companies and produces large machines that help build infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, canals, dams, and more.
History (00:03)
Business Overview (00:15)
Financials (00:23)
Valuation and Closing Thoughts (00:30)
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Copart is one of the nations largest auto re-sellers, and it's growing fast. Copart operates in a small niche of the market and essentially facilitates the recycling of cars and their parts buy matching buyers and sellers from across the world. They were the first auto re-seller to use a completely online auction model back in their early days in the 1990s.
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The largest food company in the world, Nestlé is based in Switzerland and owns brands that span many categories, from ice cream to coffee to water to pet food.
What they lack in growth they make up for in earnings quality and stability. As a massive consumer staples company that sells in virtually every country on the planet, they're not going anywhere anytime soon. In my opinion, they are probably one of the highest quality businesses in the world.
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One of the biggest mistakes we can make is to leave something out - whether that's identifying a critical risk, not considering all reasonable possibilities, or missing an amazing opportunity. Investing well relies not just on our ability to take the right actions, but to consider what actions we shouldn't take as well. You and I don't have to get all of our investing decisions right - let's just start with avoiding the bad ones!
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Tootsie Roll Industries is the company behind a lot of well-known candy brands - things like Junior Mints, Dots Gumdrops, and of course, the Tootsie Roll. Though new product developments are rare, the company does well what it has for a century - make tasty candy treats.
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BP is another one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, and is based in the U.K. Founded over a century ago, they have operations in dozens of countries around the world.
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Times are hard right now. The coronavirus has officially spread around the globe, and people everywhere are adjusting their lives as a result. The financial markets have taken a big hit. Here are the six things I'm thinking about as an investor during this time:
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Nothing matters in investing if you cannot remain solvent during times of crisis
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Have general business and investing knowledge
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Have as much liquid cash as possible ready to deploy
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Prudent capital allocation matters
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Stocks behave differently during different times
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It is impossible to know how long a panic will last, so prepare accordingly
Reach out to me at @stockstoryteller on Instagram or email alex@stockstoriespodcast.com. How are you handling the current crisis?
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This French oil major has been around for almost a century, and managed to compete with other industry juggernauts. They have higher inside ownership than other majors, and have leading operations in Europe and Africa.
History of Total (Youtube playlist)
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Royal Dutch Shell was formed with two companies from two different countries joined forces to keep Rockefeller's Standard Oil at bay. It is one of the largest of the oil majors, and has a presence in over 70 countries.
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Irreducibility is the principle of breaking things down until you can't break them down any further. This can apply to processes or products. Think about the processes you observe as an investor that can be improved upon or otherwise remain unmodified based on this principle.
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When the massive Standard Oil company broke up in the early 1900s, one of the remaining companies was Standard Oil of California. This company ended up growing to become what we now know as Chevron. Like the other oil and gas companies, Chevron find, extracts, and processes petroleum, natural gas, and other related products.
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Part of John D. Rockefeller's legacy, ExxonMobil boasts one of the world's largest expanse of oil and natural gas reserves. They help provide the raw materials for the world's energy. Though its business goes through long boom and bust cycles, companies like this can reward patient investors who can stomach significant volatility.
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Can you feel the "luv"? Southwest Airlines, whose trademarked symbol is a colorful heart, has been dominating the skies in the U.S. for decades now. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, they were successful at taking market share away from legacy airlines with their unique culture and simplified approach.
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Basic Idea - what gets rewarded gets repeated, regardless of any ethical considerations. Specifically “bad money drives out good”
History - named after Sir Thomas Gresham, who was an English Merchant in the 1500s. Also attributed to Copernicus and Aristophanes.
Gresham brought to public attention that, in an economic system with fake coinage, the fake coinage will drive out the real coinage in circulation. People will keep what is valuable and spend what is not.
A few ways to interpret this:
- Things of value will tend to become more scare, while copycats and imitators will proliferate in a given market place
- Systems of morality tend to fade away when practical benefits that appeal to human nature overshadow it
Example: savings and loans crisis in the 1980s
- Interest rates from the Federal Reserve started rising higher than the rate at which S&L’s were paying out interest on deposited funds...recipe for disaster
- S&Ls, instead of immediately becoming insolvent, began to invest in speculative ventures, reaching for yield
- A lack of regulation contributed to this slow but painful downfall
Example: sub-prime mortgage crisis
- Comedian Kathleen Madigan: “sure, put down birthday clown”
- Anyone who wanted a mortgage could get one, as banks were thirsty to increase their profits without thoroughly accounting for the risks of their lending profile
Investing
- look for management behavior within a particular company or industry. Is a CEO taking some corporate action just because their competitors are doing it? Even if it doesn’t make any sense?
- For-profit prisons - yes you can invest in them. No I would never invest in them.
- Simply because people have made money with privatization of prison systems around the world doesn’t mean it should be that way - morality enters the investing process and is highly personal
- No matter how much an annual report (see GEO Group) talks about charitable donations or how many “participants” are awarded GEDs, the business model is fundamentally flawed because the success of the company’s owners is diametrically opposed to the progress of civilization...primarily because people are jailed against their will and subject to legal and cultural systems that do not have their best interest at heart
- Prisons do need to exist at some level but I do not believe they should have a profit motive
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As the largest creator of medical devices in the world (by revenue), Medtronic supplies all sorts of devices used by hospitals and clinics around the world. Their background has roots in developing cardiac solutions - they created the first externally powered pacemaker in the late 1950s. Since then they have moved on to be become a leading provider of all sorts of medical devices, and have recently moved into the field of robotic surgery.
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Who makes the devices that doctors around the world use to perform procedures to help people get healthy? Boston Scientific is one of the big producers of medical devices. From helping people with Parkinson's Disease to predicting heart failure before it happens, they have a wide array of solutions for numerous conditions. The company has decent growth prospects, but is the stock too high to make an investment worth it?
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As the world's largest investment manager, they control over $7 trillion of capital. Yes, that's $7,000,000,000,000!! Because of their scope and size, they are able to offer a wide variety of financial products to institutions and individuals. By making some key acquisitions in past years - namely Barclays iShare - they have been able to maintain a solid market share in a rapidly changing industry.
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Today's episode addresses a listener question about temperance and sticking to an investing strategy. What are some tools we can use as individual investors to do a better job at this? I'm definitely still working on this myself, but here are some suggestions:
- Experiment with different ideas
- Keep a journal (investment-specific or otherwise)
- Develop and use a checklist
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Happy 2020! To kick off the new year I decided to compile a bunch of the knowledge regarding stock investing that I have learned over the years and compile it into one episode. It's a long one but I hope you get a lot out of it! There is so much to learn in investing and what's included here is just the tip of the iceberg. Happy investing in 2020!
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Baxter International is one of the world's largest healthcare companies. Their products can be found in hospitals, nursing homes, clinics, and doctor's offices around the world. They invented a safe storage method for blood as well as the first artificial kidney, so there is a long history of innovation. In addition to Baxter's past, we also look at how we expect it to perform as an investment in the future.
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PPG is one of the world's largest producers of paints and coatings. It's an industrial, cyclical business that has transitioned over the years from producing glass to coatings for cars, planes, and buildings. We've studied this industry on the podcast before - but how does management of this company allocate capital?
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Lockheed Martin is the largest defense contractor by revenue in the U.S. They make the iconic F-35 fighter, as well as helicopters, missiles, space systems, and cyber security systems. After a lot of industry consolidation over the decades, they now boast a strong portfolio of products.
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Mabel Nuñez is a fellow investor and runs the platform Girls on the Money, focused on helping women learn how to invest. She has a great story and I enjoyed catching up with her at FinCon this year. Check out her content below to learn more:
https://girlsonthemoney.com/
Instagram: girlsonthemoney
Book: Stock Analysis 101
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LVMH is the premier luxury conglomerate that owns iconic brands such as Louis Vuitton, Moët, Hennessey, Christian Dior, Bulgari, Dom Perignon, Sephora, Fendy, Hublot....the list goes on, and is soon to include the iconic jeweler Tiffany and Co. that was the subject of an episode a few weeks ago.
The de-centralized, vertically integrated luxury model, in addition to excellent management, has allowed LVMH's stable of Maisons to thrive for decades. It is one of the best large businesses I have ever come across.
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Churn is the concept that doing nothing is not the equivalent of standing still - it's moving backward. In many systems, including biological systems, insurance companies, and your portfolio - churn is a factor. It's important to keep it in mind when analyzing a company or industry, or even when different events happen to stocks in our portfolio.
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When I was at FinCon 2019 earlier this year, I had the great pleasure of meeting a man who goes by the name of Wall Street Trapper. He's got an incredible story, and we talk about how he came up from hustling in the streets of New Orleans to learning how to invest in the stock market.
We covered a lot of ground in this interview beyond his personal story as well, and spent some time talking about investment philosophy. I hope you enjoy and learn from the conversation as much as I did!
To learn more about WST, check out his Instagram at wall_street_trapper, or online at https://www.wallstreettrapping.com/
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You can't mention computers or software in the world today without mentioning Microsoft. The now trillion dollar company has changed the way that people interact with the digital world, and they're still making waves today. With cloud computing, artificial intelligence and new operating systems, Microsoft is working hard to stay on the edge of technology. This week's show is the second of two episodes where we go into Microsoft's history, as well as its business model to try to understand it from the investor's perspective.
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Welcome to Stock Stories! This is a very special episode for me because it is the first interview that I have ever done for this podcast. Not only that, but I got to talk with my friend and mentor Teri Ijeoma, who is a professional trader.
Teri and I first met at FinCon in 2018, and we got together again in September 2019 at the same conference to do this interview. I hope you enjoy our conversation!
To find out more about Teri's courses, including the one I took, check out her courses below. In the interest of full disclosure, these are affiliate links and I may earn a commission if you enroll in the class:
Trade and Travel Program - best for learning how to read charts and trading fundamentals
VIP Investor Program - includes Trade and Travel content with additional advanced topics such as shorting, options, and more
You can also find her on Instagram: @imaninvestor
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You can't mention computers or software in the world today without mentioning Microsoft. The now trillion dollar company has changed the way that people interact with the digital world, and they're still making waves today. With cloud computing, artificial intelligence and new operating systems, Microsoft is working hard to stay on the edge of technology. This week's show is the first of two episodes where we go into Microsoft's history, as well as its business model to try to understand it from the investor's perspective.
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Centene is the leader in providing Medicaid and Medicare health plans in the United States. Their massive growth over the last few decades has been precipitated by a changing health care climate as well as rapid consolidation of smaller competitors. Though this is a complex business that is highly regulated, the fact that the federal government funds the majority of premiums indicates stability of future revenue.
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I took a little vacation this week with the family and have some more research to do on the next company I plan on bringing to you. In the meantime, here's an episode of a company I enjoyed studying some time ago - retailer Ross Stores. They have continued their expansion, and even though there is a lot of doubt out their regarding the future success of retail businesses, Ross still has a lot going for it.
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When we put effort into something, we expect to get the same amount of output, right? This can often be the case, but sometimes the rewards we get are not proportional to the risks that we take. For example, in portfolio construction, diversification only makes sense to a certain point before it "waters down" our overall returns. The Law of Diminishing Returns reminds us that we should be mindful of the inflection points in our investments and in our lives as well.
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Tiffany and Co. is known worldwide for their high quality jewelry, particularly for their classic Tiffany diamond rings. They also sell accessories, watches, and fragrances, but the bulk of their sales come from jewelry. They have over 320 stores in over 20 countries, and have a storied history, having been in business since the 1830s. This is not a business that is highly susceptible to technology disruption, and sells classic goods where prices can be raised without much customer objection (a benefit of companies in the luxury goods sector).
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Dunkin's Brands owns the iconic Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin Robbins franchises, and has over 20,000 locations across the globe. They primarily sell coffee, donuts, and ice cream. Sounds delicious! Because of their franchise model, they are able to expand rapidly with very little investment. Although not a high growth business, Dunkin' is interesting because of their overall economics (stability of earnings), and because management has historically been diligent with returning cash to shareholders.
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As one of the larger American fashion houses, Ralph Lauren produces branded clothes, shoes, and accessories. They cater toward an "Ivy League" or modern look with a lot of their clothing, and sponsor the PGA championships and on-court officials at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Although it is a slower-growing business, management seems to do a decent job at returning cash to shareholders, but can they reinvest effectively for growth?
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Have you ever thought about the habits and beliefs that you have? Many of these beliefs were likely formed before you even had the consciousness to make many decisions to yourself. This concept applies to life more broadly, but also applies specifically to investing decisions. What brands do you purchase simply because your parents purchased it growing up? What products or services are part of your life that stem from a core belief that was passed down to you as a child?
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Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman are the three brands under the Tapestry umbrella, although Coach dominates in terms of sales and profits. This fashion house has been making handbags for decades, but may have lost some of their cachet in recent years. Will their diversification with the purchases of Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman revitalize their bottom line?
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Under Armour has gone from an up and coming sports brand in the United States to one that is now known globally. Though they have faced difficulties in recent years, Under Armour has been able to grow their brand by allying with professional and college sports teams, increasing consumer awareness.
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Walgreens Boots Alliance is one of the largest of retail pharmacies in the world. They are currently under pressure because of rising healthcare costs and the transformation of how consumers interact with retail. In spite of this, they sell billions of dollars worth of prescriptions and other goods.
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This is adapted from advice that Charlie Munger used to give at Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meetings. Most people never build wealth or financial freedom because they never pass that critical point where they have saved enough for compounding to really start working for them.
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Nike is the largest footwear company and the world and it's Swoosh logo and slogans like "Just Do It" have become a big part of popular culture. Athletes around the world use their products, inspiring millions to do the same.
2019 Annual Report
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One of the most popular travel review sites, TripAdvisor is a publicly traded company that was once part of Expedia Holdings. They make money primarily through advertising while boasting hundreds of millions of users and reviews.
Annual Reports
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When making a decision, there is always an option that requires the least effort. Following the path of least resistance is somewhat of a sister mental model to Occam's Razor - the easiest option may not always be the right one. Examining a decision holistically and thoroughly will help bring us the right path forward, not simply taking steps in the direction of the path that seems easiest.
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Expedia was one of the first Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) on the internet and is still a big player in the space today. Expedia's stable of brands primarily facilitates buying hotels online, but also supports flights, cruises and more. HomeAway, the owner of the VRBO brand, is their fastest growing segment.
Expedia 2018 Annual Report
Expedia 2013 Annual Report
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Formerly known as Priceline.com, Booking Holdings is a group of travel websites that allow people to have direct access to hotel, rental car, and restaurant listings. They are one of the bigger players in the Online Travel Agency (OTA) space. Though they compete heavily with other websites, they have delivered solid returns to shareholders.
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Invesco is one of America's largest asset managers with over one trillion dollars in assets under management. Their strength is in their global capabilities - they serve over 120 markets around the world. They have managed to survive in spite of a radical change in the asset management industry over the last decade, focusing on new product lines and maintaining an international presence.
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Planet Fitness is a medium-sized but quickly growing gym in the United States. They operate on a franchise model and have quickly been taking market share by catering to the casual gym-goer. In this episode we look at several factors influencing the business' fundamentals, as well as valuation and future outlook.
Planet Fitness 2019 10-K
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The Dunning-Kruger effect is the tendency for those who are incompetent to overestimate their competence. This "dual burden" is two fold: 1) incompetence means less capability to do things well, and 2) overestimation of one's ability means more susceptibility to blind spots and thus, catastrophic failure.
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3M is a massive industrial conglomerate known some of its famous industrial and consumer products, like Scotch Tape and Post-It Notes. It makes a very wide array of products though, and its Personal Safety segment is growing rapidly.
MIT Technology Review article discussing the new cost of productivity
3M 2018 10-K Annual Report
3M 2013 10-K Annual Report
For information on the Personal Safety segment of the business, look at p.72 in the 2018 annual report linked above.
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The largest publicly traded trucking company in America, J. B. Hunt transports all types of goods - from chemicals to cosmetics. Started as just a small fleet of trucks, it has grown immensely and now offers a variety of services to its customers.
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Famous for its Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption franchises, Take Two Interactive is one of the largest video game publishers in the world. Even though they are big, they're still smaller than competitors Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard, so there is room for growth.
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Electronic Arts is one of the most well-known publishers of video games, specifically for its sports franchises like FIFA and Madden NFL. They also have a variety of non-sports related titles. EA was started by a former Apple employee in the 1980s and has grown exponentially since then. EA has been investing in current trends such as casual gaming and esports, but will future growth be like the past?
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Mr. Market is the classic allegory first described by Benjamin Graham in his classic, The Intelligent Investor. It's a great way to think about stock prices going up and down in the short term - it's all emotional. Departures from intrinsic value DO exist, and it's our job as investors to take advantage of them if we so desire.
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One of the largest video game companies in the world, Activision Blizzard is known for creating hit franchises such as Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and (as of the King acquisition) Candy Crush. Their games are played by hundreds of millions of people monthly across over 190 countries.
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Estée Lauder always believed that every woman should feel beautiful. Her drive for innovation in the creation of beauty products was impressive, and her and her husband Joseph worked together as a team to build one the world's biggest beauty companies. With products sold in over 150 countries, Estée Lauder's skin care, make up, fragrance, and hair products are sold to women (and men) everywhere.
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Known as a visual search engine, Pinterest catalogs ideas and themes, providing inspiration for people pursuing goals or DIY projects. Although Pinterest is an ad-based platform like other social media companies, it's purpose is unique, which I think is its greatest competitive advantage.
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The video-based sharing platform has grown rapidly over the past several years, resulting in an IPO in 2019. What are the company's future prospects?
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Just because one or two funds, stocks, or people within a given group succeeded doesn't mean that multiple others didn't fail that we just didn't hear about. This is survivorship bias. It's important to look at an entire relevant data set when we make decisions.
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Robotic surgery is here. Intuitive Surgical is one of the leaders in this space. It's not just surgeons with hand tools performing procedures anymore - humans are working in concert with machines to operate on patients with more precision and accuracy than ever before.
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Lyft just had its IPO and its the fastest growing company we've yet to cover on this podcast. It also has no profits! How do we reconcile those two pieces of information as investors? In this episode we take a look at the ridesharing business model, or TaaS (Transportation as a Service) from the lens of the Lyft company.
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Photoshop. Premiere. PDFs. These are all innovations from Adobe - one of the top software companies for creative professionals. With the rise of the internet and content creation, I think Adobe is well positioned for future success. The trick is the price...how much to pay for fast growth?
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DowDupont is a chemical producer that makes everything from plastics to pesticides to industrial materials. They are the result of the Dow and Dupont merger in 2015, and are soon to be split into three companies in mid-2019.
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It's the number one pizza chain the world. Although not part of the S&P 500 as of early 2019, based on its current growth I believe it will be in time. We talk about how Domino's has changed over the years, and dig into the financials.
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Synergy is simple idea that 2 + 2 = 5. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. This can be seen in household economics, biology, and investing (just like many other mental models, this one applies to multiple fields of study).
Business Insider article: Uber and Lyft
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Founded by Dave Thomas in the 60's, Wendy's restaurants have become another well known place to get a hamburger and fries. We look at the history of the franchise, as well as the recent financial data to better understand Wendy's as a potential investment.
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This is the company that owns Pizza Hut, Kentucky Fried Chicken and Taco Bell. The brands are definitely iconic in the American fast food scene, and they have grown internationally over the years. Can future good returns be expected though based on the current state of the company?
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This episode is all about burgers, fries, and real estate. The fast food phenomenon can trace its origins to the growth of the suburb and car ownership in America. McDonald's (via Ray Kroc) took advantage of these trends and, combined with a focus on efficiency, took the world by storm with one of the most widespread brands in the world.
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Let's take a step back for a moment. From everything and everyone that I have studied, becoming a successful investor is about more than picking great stocks. Portfolio management is really important too. Today we discuss some the importance of reviewing your portfolio's holdings to make sure that you are actually on track toward achieving your goals.
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DaVita helps people dealing with ESRD, or End Stage Renal Disease. It is a problem affecting more and more people in America and worldwide, with diabetes on the rise. Listen to learn more about one of Warren Buffett's top holdings.
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It's the 80/20 rule, also known as the Law of the Few. It's a pattern that emerges in different phenomena - 20% of the causes are responsible for 80% of the effects. In this episode we explore the implications of this mental model in investing, and see how it applies in other areas of life as well.
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Apple is one of the largest computer and electronic companies in the world. It is known for its highly engineered, high quality (and high priced) products. Over the decades it has found a way to innovate, from the first Apple I to the Macintosh, to the iPhone. With the initiation of a dividend and large stock buybacks a few years ago, Apple is maturing, but that does not mean the growth story is over yet.
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Walmart, now the world's largest retailer, started out as a small five-and-dime store in rural America. Sam Walton, its founder, gradually created the retail empire, which now consists of over 11,000 stores. It has been one of the most profitable stocks that you could have invested in over the past several decades. In today's episode we take a look at Walmart's past and present in order to make a sound judgment about it's viability as a potential investment.
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It is the world's largest social media company, and its rise as a cultural influence has been nothing short of extraordinary. In this episode we discuss Facebook's rise first as a social media empire, and then as a thriving advertising business. After discussing the financials, we'll go over some of the risks that Facebook faces going forward and what that could mean for us as investors.
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This episode shares just a little bit about me and where I am coming from when it comes to investing.
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We often think in terms of cause of effect, as in event A causes event B. But then that's it. What about events C, D, and E? How are they related to A, B, and each other? The world is not one smooth sequence of events. If we want to understand it better, it helps to apply the principle of second-order thinking.
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Although not part of the S&P 500, British American Tobacco is the world's largest publicly listed tobacco company. It currently exists as a company that sells brands in over 200 markets, and is constantly creating new products to combat the inevitable decline of cigarettes.
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Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi, Svedka - these are just a small sampling of brands that Constellation Brands sells. They are one of the largest beer and wine producers in the world and they are number one in total alcohol sales in the United States.
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How can we talk about the beverage giants without first talking about Pepsi? Pepsi is not just about the iconic soda brand. They also sell Gatorade, Fritos, Cheetos, Tropicana, Quaker Oats, and a host of other products. Contrary to Coca-Cola, their strategy has been to diversify in both food and beverages.
Here is the book about the chip industry referenced in the podcast.
Crunch!: A History of the Great American Potato Chip
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Hanlon's Razor, similar to Occam's Razor, is a philosophical tool we can use to "cut down" a situation with potentially many logical explanations to just one that has a high probability of occurring. By not automatically assuming mal-intent when negative outcomes occur, we can often uncover the true source of the problem, which is often due to negligence.
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This is one of the most successful firms on the planet. 3% of all liquid consumed on Earth (including tap water) is sold by The Coca-Cola Company. Today's episode is somewhat longer than usual - simply because, with a history and business model like this, there are a lot of great things to study. We get into how Coca-Cola came to be, and how the company has innovated throughout the decades to remain successful. We also discuss the challenges that the company faces going forward and its attractiveness as an investment.
Here is a link to a great video profile that National Geographic did on how Coca-Cola's products are made and packaged.
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One of the largest retailers in the United States, Target has become known for it's "upscale discount" atmosphere, experience and products. Throughout the latter half of the 20th century, Target experienced incredible growth as it expanded across the country. However, it is currently facing pressure to grow in the midst of strong competition (like Amazon), and has not grown sales or profits in several years.
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Waste Management is the largest solid waste collector and processor in the country. They collect and process trash and recyclables. In this episode, other than the regular financials and history, we talk about the importance of financial transparency and straight talk from management.
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Republic Services provides trash and recycling collection and transfer services. They own landfills and recycling centers. The waste management industry is vital to how we operate in modern society, but often goes unnoticed. We all consume things, and there are by-products to what we consume that need to be processed and recycled. Republic Services is one of the largest companies that does just that - and they do more than pick up your trash in the morning.
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Things should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. This mindset can help clarify our decision making and our interpretation of data. Occam's Razor is a philosophical tool used in many fields to make our thinking processes more efficient and effective.
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Regarding the reference about investor's expectations influencing a stock's price, check out Phil Fisher's: Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings.
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Colgate-Palmolive - it's what you think about when you think about toothpaste. In fact, its products are bought by over half of the world's households. They've been around for almost a quarter of a millennium. Though not fast growing, it is probably the most stable profit engine that I have studied. With a dwindling share count, increasing dividends, and a strong international presence, CP is one of the few companies that I have researched that I can say I believe will be around in fifty years.
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Ross is the largest "off-price" department store in the United States. They sell mostly women's clothing, but also clothes for men, shoes, home accents, etc. Although they have been around in some form since 1950, their rapid phase of growth did not start until the late 80s. Ross is a higher growth large business that has sales and profits that continue to increase in recessions. What returns can we expect if we pay up for growth?
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Ford is one of the largest automakers in the world and is famous for its brands such as the Ford F-Series, Mustang, and many others. It is the largest family owned business in the world and makes cars, trucks, and other vehicles. Below are some notes from my analysis:
- Current share price in October 2018: around $9.20 per share
- Total shares outstanding as of 2Q 2018: 3,998,000,000 shares
- So total market cap right now is about $38 billion
- Expected earnings in 2018 to be $1.30-$1.50 per share, which is a P/E of 6-7x
- Cash net of debt (including marketable securities of Ford Motor Corp. but not of the credit business) is $9 billion.
- This equates to $2.25/share in cash, which is a decent amount. Really though it is a negative cash position of -$115 billion when accounting for all short and long term debt on the balance sheet. This is -$28.00/share in debt.
- The amount of net cash the company had in 1987, when Peter Lynch wrote about it, was $8.3 billion. So the cash position has gone up and down over time, but is significantly lower now when accounting for all debt.
- Ford Credit earned $2,300,000,000 in pre-tax profit in 2017. In 2018 it earned $1,286,000,000 in pre-tax profit in the first half of the year. It looks like based on the most recent trends that it will earn around $2 billion for the whole year of 2018 (although sales of cars and trucks tend to slow down a little bit by the end of the year).
- If we do what Lynch did and analyze Ford Credit as a stand-alone financial company, we apply a 10x multiple to the earnings.
- So, Ford Credit is worth around $20 billion. Dividing this number by the shares outstanding, we see that the financial business of Ford is worth around $5.00/share.
- So, let's put this together. Current share prices for the business is around $9.20. The net cash position is worth nothing. The financial business is worth around $5.00. 9.20 - 0 - 5.00 = 4.20. This equates to the car business being available for purchase for $16.8 billion.
- Comparison point from the past, at the beginning of 1994:
- Ford had 464 MM shares outstanding (common stock).
- Only 940 MM in profit for 1993, so $2.02 per share.
- 1984: $2.9 billion in profit
- 1985: $2.5 billion in profit
- 1986: $3.2 billion in profit
- 1987: $4.6 billion in profit
- 1989: $5.3 billion in profit
- 1990: $0.8 billion in profit
- 1991: ($2.2 billion) loss
- 1992: ($7.3 billion) loss
- 1993: $2.5 billion in profit
- Income from the Financial Services segment steadily grew over time throughout this whole period - Ford increasingly financed a higher percentage of cars, even though the total number of cars sold fluctuated a lot.
- Share count has hovered at 3.9 billion over the past several years - no change expected but dilution will likely occur if Ford starts to burn a lot of cash
- Dividend has fluctuated a lot up and down over the past several years - this is the way Ford does things and is likely to continue. A dividend cut is almost certain when the next recession strikes.
- In 1987 the business made $8.92/share assuming full dilution. That year it traded between $28.50 and $56.37. That is a P/E ratio of between 3 and 6.
- The P/E is between 6 and 7 right now - so it is no unreasonable for the share price to drop in half from here if profits (and dividends as well) fall.
- Lesson: Peak Earnings Trap - the raw P/E number tells you the stock is cheap, but that may just mean that the business has reached a high point in the cycle with its earnin
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In many things in life, reversion to the mean is inevitable. Sometimes it takes a lot of data for this to become clear. But in investing and in life, it is important to be careful with our assumptions and make sure that we don't confuse correlation with causation. Understanding regression to the mean will help us do this effectively.
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Mental models = thought experiments. We discuss what exactly a thought experiment is and cover a few examples to see how it can improve our thinking about the world around us.
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It's the world's largest telecommunications company. From it's humble origins with Alexander Graham Bell, the inventor of the telephone, AT&T has proved its dominance even as technology has shifted from wired to wireless networks. In this episode we explore:
- The origins of AT&T
- The 'Baby Bell' Break-Up
- Re-organization into one company
- Current Financials
- Future outlook and why I think AT&T is one of the best large capitalization income stocks right now
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Molson Coors is the fifth largest brewer by market cap in the world. They own popular brands like Miller, Coors, Molson Canadian, Blue Moon, and more.
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Brown Forman is the largest American maker of spirits. Their flagship brand, Jack Daniels, is the 15th best selling spirit in the world. They also sell scotch, vodka, tequila, liqueur, and other whiskies.
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First Principles are the core ideas or facts that exist in the world that are irrefutable. We can build on them in order to come up with more complex ideas.
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Many things are random, but many things are not. When it comes to investing in stocks, it pays to know the difference. What are the cause and effects relationship in the market and what must be accept as truly random events?
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Charles Schwab is one of the largest asset managers and broker-dealers in the U.S. I used to think that all they did was execute trades, but their business model is actually a lot more involved than that. They're also a bank and an investment manager.
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Today we look at another one of the U.S.'s largest asset managers, which has always operated from a philosophy of growth investing.
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Franklin Resources is one of the largest asset managers in the country and boasts a very clean balance sheet and a strong record of delivering returns to shareholders. Will the future be as great as the past for new investors?
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Let's look at one of the faster growing companies in the S&P 500. Starbucks sells coffee, and is one of the largest coffee companies in the world.
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Today we discuss a mental model that, well, talks about models!
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It's one of the largest healthcare companies in the world. From medical devices, to drugs, to Band-Aids and Tylenol, Johnson and Johnson is the premier healthcare conglomerate in the United States.
Johnson and Johnson's quality of earnings is so high, I am willing to bet that they are a company that will actually be around and earning a profit 50 years from now. I found their credo inspiring, and their de-centralized business model helps them continue to grow at a steady pace in spite of their size.
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General Electric has had some major changes recently. Let's discuss their impact for current and new investors.
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Let's talk about the fourth of the big four payment providers - Mastercard. We'll discuss similarities between MA and its main competitor, Visa (V), as well as the present and past valuations of this stock.
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Today we'll discuss one of the most iconic candy company's out there - Hershey. Did you know that Hershey now sells more than just chocolate and candies? We discuss the history of Hershey, the basics of the business model, and the company's future prospects.
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Our second mental model in the podcast is the circle of competence. It is incredibly powerful if understood and applied. How much do you know, and how much do you think you know? Knowing the difference is key. Today we discuss:
- What your circle of competence is
- How understanding the circle of competence can help you as an investor
- How failing to recognize your circle of competence can potentially hurt you as an investor
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The offspring of Altria, Phillip Morris International is one of the world's largest tobacco producers. It was spun off in 2008 and is making headway in switching over from its traditional products to RRPs (reduced risk products), which heat tobacco but do not burn it.
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Today we talk about America's largest tobacco company - over the decades it has been one of the most profitable stocks in the history of the U.S. stock market.
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What's one of the most influential media companies in the world? It's beloved by millions, and the stories told through its business have been in the hearts and minds of many people for decades. Today we discuss one of the most dominant entertainment companies in the world.
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Today we continue our discussion of the major credit card companies, and we're looking at American Express. It has a storied history and has changed it's approach throughout the decades. Now it's a credit card powerhouse that is also a massive bank (it's kind of like Discover's big brother). In this episode we explore the past and present of the company, as well as some ideas about its future outlook.
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It's our first mental model podcast episode here on Stock Stories! Mental models are incredible tools for improving decision making. They are often simple, but highly practical thought experiments that force us to look at problems in different ways. Today we discuss our first mental model: inversion.
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Visa is one of the world's largest payment processors. Their cards are everywhere and they process billions of dollars of transactions per year. That's just part of the story - find out more on today's episode.
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Discover Financial Services is one of the largest credit card issuers and payment processors in the world. They create credit cards for consumers and also lend money in a variety of ways. They also charge processing fees through their international PULSE network.
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Today we'll talk about one of the oldest and most successful paint companies in the world, Sherwin Williams. Can a company that's been around for over 150 years still be growing fast? We'll discuss:
History
Company Overview
Financials
Outlook
Valuation
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Today we begin our stock series, going through the companies that comprise the S&P 500. The first is what has long been considered the bluest of blue chips - General Electric. But with recent struggles, has it fallen from grace? Today we examine:
- A brief history of General Electric
- General Electric's core businesses segments
- Income and Expenses
- Asset and Liabilities
- Future Outlook
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Today we discuss the anatomy of a company. At the individual company level, there are five parts that must work in harmony in order for it to be successful:
- Value creation
- Marketing
- Sales
- Value Delivery
- Finance
Within the finance section of the business, there are three main financial statements:
- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet
- Cash Flow Statement
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In today's episode we cover the six categories of stocks. These are:
- Slow Growers
- Stalwarts
- Fast Growers
- Cyclicals
- Turnarounds
- Asset Plays
We can groups all stocks first by size, and then break them down further into one or two of these categories. This will give us a framework for understanding how they might behave in the future, both as a company and as a stock.
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This episode will cover: a brief recap of the advantages of investing in stocks and why they can make great investments, and a brief history of the stock market.
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In this episode we discuss the three asset classes of: paper assets, real assets, and private business. We look at the economics characteristics of each, considering the pros and cons within the investment universe.
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Welcome to the Stock Stories podcast!
This is a podcast dedicated to helping individual investors learn investing principles by studying case studies of real companies. You can expect:
- Analysis of every component in the S&P 500
- Investigation of mental models and their investing application
- Bonuses such as occasional interviews, coverage of other companies, and more!
Thanks for beginning this journey with me! Connect with me below:
- Instagram: @stockstoryteller
- Twitter: @stckstryteller
- Email: alex@stockstoriespodcast.com.
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