Niels, Author at Top Traders Unplugged: Recent Episodes
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In this episode, we discuss: What the 60/40 portfolio will look like in the next decade The surprise of markets ability to trend The value of Risk Mitigation, but how it’s not enough Insights to the inflationary period in the UK under Nigel Lawson Why this time feels different Lessons from the 1987 Crash Follow […]
The post 4 Allocator Series: Insights from the Queens Bank CIO ft. Alan Higgins — March 2nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient market hypothesis versus adaptive market hypothesis, and the differences between Trend Following and ‘Trend Trading’.
The post 181 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – February 27th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: The outlook for inflation Achieving high performance consistently How to re-allocate a portfolio accordingly Mean variance optimisation Whether this time is different Selecting the right manager Simplifying complexity for better understanding Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Elizabeth on LinkedIn. IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read […]
The post 3 Allocator Series: Lessons from a $25 billion CIO ft. Elizabeth Burton — February 23rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com […]
The post 180 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – February 20th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: Ever-changing market correlations Strategic asset allocation Responding to interest rate changes Achieving utility maximisation Mean variance analysis Portfolio diversification Treasury bonds High performance teams Simplifying complexity Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Sebastien on LinkedIn or at T. Rowe Price & get his book Beyond Diversification. IT's […]
The post 2 Allocator Series: Properly Diversifying a $1.6 Trillion Portfolio ft. Sebastien Page— February 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.
The post 179 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – February 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: Better education around capital allocation Allocating capital throughout various market cycles How to define an ‘alternative investment’ How actively we should manage a portfolio Traditional versus alternative investments The difficulties in the manager selection process Being a great behavioural investor as an allocator Difficult conversations with clients Advice for aspiring […]
The post 1 Allocator Series: Adapting to Market Cycles ft. Phil Huber— February 9th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.
The post 178 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – February 6th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: How market behaviour is often intertwined Why Cem chose to manage outside capital The thinking behind institutional market moves How the global pandemic affected markets Dealer flows Feedback loops Delta hedging Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn or YouTube. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow Cem on Twitter. IT's TRUE 👀 – most CIO's read […]
The post 10 Volatility Series: Why We All Need Volatility ft. Cem Karsan— February 2nd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.
The post 177 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – January 31st, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How quantum physics relates to financial markets * The mechanics behind price impacts * David’s new book, coming out soon * The magical characteristics of money * The power and unpredictability of sentiment * Weather and how it relates to financial markets * Central bank money creation and how effective it can be * Cognitive interference
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow David on Twitter.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:54 – Conclusions from David's research you’ve done on weather forecasting?
04:33 – Is the notion of the economic system as being something that’s mechanistic and can be controlled flawed, and if so, how?
07:12 – Do you look at different economic models and aggregate the data?
12:46 – Is there a way to limit the momentum effects of passive investing on the markets?
17:41 – Can you explain how quantum physics relates to financial markets?
23:15 – Can you give a couple of examples of cognitive interference?
28:00 – Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?
42:28 – Can you talk about your new book, and what the title means?
45:24 -Does Modern Monetary Theory relate to the quantum physics analogy of something being created from nothing?
52:30 – Do you believe that money creation by central banks is unsustainable?
57:28 – Would you say that your work implies that minor tweaks to the framework are inadequate when it comes to the economy and investing?
The post 09 Volatility Series: The Magical Properties of Money ft. David Orrell — January 26th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Richard on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RichB118
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast .
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:19 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show, such as Dave W, for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
02:41 – Macro recap from Niels
04:13 – Weekly review of performance
11:14 – Q1; Jonathan: What are the parameters that indicate a high chance of an outlier trade?
17:22 – Q2; James: Do you treat correlated markets as individual markets or group them together?
21:24 – Q3; Adam: One system has a better average performance when looking at the backtest, and another system has a worse average performance in its backtest while having a large outlier, making its overall returns higher. Which system is better?
24:14 – Q4; Irving: How can I trade a 100 markets as an individual investor with capital limitations?
29:07 – Q5; James: How do you approach correlation risk management?
32:39 – The differences between Trend Following and the more common term ‘Trend Trading’
38:24 – Expanding on the theme of hunting for outliers, and how Jean Phillipe Bouchard’s research was useful in understanding the nature of outliers
01:01:53 – Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Adaptive Market Hypothesis
01:22:03 – What importance does it have that we’re changing the narrative around Trend Following?
01:25:32 – Benchmark performance update
The post 176 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – January 23rd, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * The extent to which news drives price action * How to look at ever-changing market dynamics, such as correlations * Jean-Philippe Bouchaud’s journey into finance * The reliability of the Bloomberg terminal * Dimensional analysis * The inelastic market hypothesis * Standing out in the Systematic Investor space * Volatility strategies and if they have any connection to high-frequency data
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Jean-Philippe on LinkedIn.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:38 – What area of physics did you work in, and how did you come into finance?
05:04 – Can you elaborate the paper you worked on, where you where you investigated the endogeneity of large price moves?
15:24 – How timely do you consider the Bloomberg feed to be? Is it quick enough?
19:18 – How do we stitch together the two ideas of micro market data
28:20 – Do you the believe in the research that is carried out using dimensional analysis?
32:58 – Do you think that the inelastic market hypothesis was driven by flows into passive vehicles?
37:13 – Regarding the biggest stocks in the S&P 500, is it true that if one stock is 10 times bigger than another stock, and it gets 10 times the dollar allocation, that the price impacts will be the same?
40:13 – Can you tell us about your journey so far with CFM?
50:21 – Do you still do Trend Following, and if so, how do you do it different from a standard Trend Follower?
52:08 – If you kill the beta in a Trend Following program, do you lose the convexity?
52:38 – What’s the relation between volatility and higher-frequency momentum systems, in your view?
The post 08 Volatility Series: Adaptation To Change ft. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud — January 19th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
03:24 – A huge thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes. Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen
04:47 – Macro recap from Niels
08:17 – Weekly review of returns
11:01 – How has your new approach been working out, Rob?
19:33 – Q1; John: How should I approach risk-per-contract?
27:41 – Q2; Patrick: What is your opinion on investing a fixed percentage of free-cash balance?
34:30 – Q3; Frederick: Do professional Trend Followers pyramid positions?
46:24 – Q4; Michael: Which full-size contract would you say is a ‘must-have’ in your portfolio?
01:01:19 – Q5; Rene: When it comes to trading CFDs, how can I deal with changing transaction fee percentages?
01:09:55 – Q6; Michael: Do you have any advice for a 34-year old who wants to enter the managed futures industry? Has Rob ever considered starting his own fund?
01:15:52 – Q7; James: How far back should we look when measuring correlations?
01:23:27 – Benchmark performance update
The post 175 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – January 16th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
In this episode, we discuss: * How to improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio * Dave’s concept of ‘participate and protect’ * The importance of compounding * Dave’s ‘always good weather’ portfolio * Long-volatility Bitcoin strategies * Value investing in the volatility space * Methods for taking profits * Sizing portfolio allocations
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
Follow Hari on Twitter.
Follow Dave on LinkedIn.
Check out our Systematic Investor series here, and our Global Macro series here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
02:01 – How did you end up in the long-volatility sector?
04:55 – How options used to be considered as a redundant trading method
07:53 – Do you have any idea why the Bitcoin skew is so high and flat?
08:56 – What does it mean when you say you consider yourself a value-buyer of volatility?
10:15 – Do you have any notion how to mix the various positions you warehouse?
15:46 – How do you source good ideas, and has living in Singapore given you an edge for this?
27:12 – Can you talk about the Taliban’s use of the ‘Sandpile Theory’?
33:13 – Are there more opportunities for you globally now, then there used to be?
40:51 – What are your mechanisms for taking profits?
47:19 – What’s your view on paying for convexity in your positions?
51:13 – Do you engage in skew trades?
52:41 – How do you think about low-vol?
55:49 – How do you size allocations to your long-vol strategy?
01:01:49 – Closing thoughts from Dave?
The post 07 Volatility Series: Participate & Protect ft. Dave Dredge — January 12th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.
Check out our series on Volatility here, and our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Alan on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @alanjdunne
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:58 – Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a 5-star rating or review on iTunes
02:34 – Macro recap from Niels
05:02 – Weekly review of returns
12:22 – Q1: Brett; How do you define a drawdown?
13:48 – Alan, what is your background and path to the CTA industry?
19:32 – Announcement of new Top Traders Unplugged ‘Allocator’ series
20:49 – What inspired you to write your highly-regarded paper on Trend Following?
01:04:08 – Benchmark performance update
The post 174 Systematic Investor Series ft. Alan Dunne – January 10th, 2022 appeared first on Top Traders Unplugged.