Grant’s Current Yield Podcast: Recent Episodes
Grant's Interest Rate Observer
You've read their prose. Now hear their voices. Listen to Jim Grant and Evan Lorenz talk high finance, Grant's-style, with plenty of wit and historical context to enliven their discussion of today's foremost investment topics. Welcome to Grant's Radio!
With special guest Michael Haynes, head of private credit at Beach Point Capital Management.
With special guest Dev Kantesaria, founder and portfolio manager of Valley Forge Capital Management.
With special guest John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitized products at Janus Henderson Investors.
With special guest Mario Cibelli, managing partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management.
With special guest Zeke Faux, the author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall."
With special guests David Aviram and Ted Martell, co-founders of Maverick Real Estate Partners.
With special guest John Haskell, founder and chief investment officer of Atla Capital Management.
With special guest, Jeremy Mindich, co-founder and managing partner of Scopia Capital Management.
With special guest, William D. Cohan, the author of "Power Failure: The Rise and Fall of an American Icon."
With special guest, Craig Moffett, renowned telecom analyst and co-founder of MoffettNathanson.
With special guest, Martin Hale, technology reinvention specialist and founder of Hale Capital Partners.
With special guest, Mary Childs, the author of "The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All."
In conversation with Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates.
In conversation with Spencer Jakab, the award-winning investing columnist and author of “The Revolution That Wasn’t.”
Special guest Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins this week's episode.
With special guest, Scott Matthews, vice president of global operations at Hygiena, Inc.
With special guest, Matthew Earl, managing partner and founder of ShadowFall Capital & Research.
With special guest, Karen Petrou, co-founder and managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics.
In conversation with Martin Hale, Jr., CEO and portfolio manager at Hale Capital Partners.
In conversation with Julian Klymochko, founder and chief investment officer at Accelerate Financial Technologies.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/urban-standard-capital/
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@MassifCap
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https://quadraticllc.com
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https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-haskell-092a118/
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@businesscycle
https://www.linkedin.com/in/lakshmanachuthan/
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@GuggenheimPtnrs
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@Dcurnutt
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Joe Lawler, M.D., Ph.D. and fund manager, joins this week’s program. On the agenda: #Coronavirus and its potential impact, navigating the “haves and the have-nots.” Is this a golden age in drug discovery? Index investors: the parasites of #WallStreet, and, the scourge of “data curation.”
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Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Investor and writer Tim Bergin calls in to discuss the risks and opportunities associated with our warming planet.
2:33 Climate primer and the risks of rising C02
7:17 What’s different this time?11:50 Assessing potential remedies
18:30 A cook’s tour of NIO, Inc.
24:13 Making sense of high short interest
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Ronald Stoeferle, managing partner at Incrementum AG, calls in to discuss pressing monetary matters and to review the investment merits of the Money of Kings.
4:22 Institutional distrust means opportunity
11:34 Deflation and the U.S. dollar
18:14 The miners: a dismal past but a better future?
25:09 Gold and crypto, monetary cousins
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Jim Grant delivers a holiday message and review of 2019 financial events. 1:15 The state of the world as 2020 looms. 7:45 All things cyclical 11:30 The repo hiccup and unscripted events. 17:15 UST margin demand: a product of unnaturally-low rates? Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
@AmitySchlaes, author of “Great Society: A New History,” stops by the office to discuss her new book.
http://www.amityshlaes.com
2:24 #BrettonWoods and the “bonanza”
8:50 Michael Harrington goes to Washington
13:10 Arthur Burns: A Greek tragedy
19:45 Presidential pressure on the Fed, then and now
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Each analyst identifies a notable recent event. Jim provides a winter reading recommendation. 1:40 Dazed and confused 4:18 Crude oil and the VC market 10:24 Jim reviews “#1931” by #TobiasStraumann (shorturl.at/ioJS0) Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com.
Don Coxe, chairman at Coxe Advisors LLP and commodity investor par excellence, calls in to discuss the latest in agriculture and its implications. www.coxeadvisors.net/
1:31 A contrarian look at the climate
8:38 An opportunity in natural gas?
14:07 The Maunder Minimum
17:20 A new commodity boom: Wither inflation?
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Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg stop by the office to discuss opportunities in natural resources. www.gorozen.com 1:10 #Apple worth more than the entire energy sector 4:19 What’s happening with shale? 12:21 Tier-one wells on the wane 18:43 Bargains abound in energy Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
In October 2017, Marc Cohodes unveiled a new idea to the Grant’s conference crowd. @AlderLaneeggs His remarks follow. 3:20 Free speech - for the bulls 18:58 Taking things personally 28:45 A common theme 35:12 “This is not a game” Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim, Evan and Phil recap highlights from the Grant’s 2019 fall conference and discuss a recent sea change in the business environment. 1:49 #Uber, #Grubhub and business model limitations 6:20 Private equity’s smooth marks 10:45 Fair and foul, and foul fair 14:12 World Series postmortem 18:50 Balance sheet ignition Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Twitter user @Donutshorts calls in to discuss his investment process, assess the world at large and identify some companies which may offer compelling opportunities on the long and short side.
0:55 Positioning in an “everything bubble”
6:15 WeWork and trouble in tier-one real estate
11:30 Low rates in the U.S., negative rates elsewhere. Convergence coming?
17:30 Opportunities and risks in the energy patch
20:20 Uber, unicorns and free money
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Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott U.S.A. Holdings, Inc., calls in to discuss the outlook for precious metals and offer suggestions on the best ways to invest. http://www.sprottusa.com @RealRickRule 1:26 A word from Lord Liverpool 5:30 Rick’s view of cryptocurrencies 10:57 How to buy gold? 14:30 The outlook for mining shares 20:48 “I just believe it goes higher” Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
George Selgin, director of the #Cato Institute's center for monetary and financial alternatives, calls in to discuss remarkable recent events in the banking system and the potential implications.
@GeorgeSelgin
1:21 A money market which fails to clear
5:45 Interest on excess reserves: Unintended consequences
11:24 Too much collateral = too much debt?
15:50 More QE on the way
20:10 Fixes to fixes to fixes
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Bianco Research president and eponym Jim Bianco calls in to help us make sense of last week’s chaos in short term lending rates. Jonathan Tepper, founding partner at Variant Perception, assesses the commercial landscape and identifies potentially attractive opportunities. @biancoresearch @jtepper2 @VrntPerception 8:15 Why didn’t the banks arbitrage those high rates? 13:50 Excess reserves and post-crisis regulation 19:00 Corporate competition on the wane 24:20 Europe set for a rebound? Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Marty Fridson, chief investment officer Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors LLC and “One of Wall Street’s most thoughtful and perceptive analysts” according to the New York Times, stops by to discuss all things credit.
2:54 What’s new in high-yield and leveraged loans
7:30 Marty’s preferred income-generating assets
13:00 A garden-variety recession: Enough to spur widespread defaults?
19:24 Price controls, central planning and central banking
24:03 Can negative-yielding issuers default?
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Tuomas Malinen, PhD (econ.) CEO of GnS Economics Limited and Adjunct Professor of Economics at the University of Helsinki, calls in to express his concerns with modern theory and practice.
2:00 Applying scientific principals to economics
6:24 Groupthink in action
13:10 Central banks and intellectual dissent
15:20 MMT: the endgame
17:32 Investment implications
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Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, calls in to discuss the state of markets and central banking following Wednesday’s rate cut. @biancoresearch https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-bianco-117619152/ 2:25 Press conference post-mortem 8:01 Inverted yield curve: predictor of recession, or cause? 14:10 Negative rates on the way for the U.S.? 21:41 Jim’s interview at the Fed Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jay Van Sciver, head of industrials at Hedgeye Risk Management, comes by to discuss opportunities in cyclicals, the state of the economy and some of our favorite profitless unicorns. @hedgeyelndstrls https://www.linkedin.com/in/jay-v-6740985/ 2:10 Decelerating growth and replacement demand 5:13 Jay’s preferred metrics 11:07 Why don’t Uber and Lyft make money? 15:38 Down on the farm 18:26 Jay’s favorite ideas Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Carl E. Walter, longtime bank executive and coauthor of “Red Capitalism,” joins the program to discuss important recent happenings in China.
2:55 Reading the tea-leaves
8:12 Baoshang Bank: A small fish causing big problems
14:12 Hong Kong and the mainland
19:56 More stimulus on the way?
24:38 Swapping loans for bonds
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Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis, Sayles & Company and fixed income investor extraordinaire, calls in to discuss the state of markets in 2019. @LoomisSayles www.loomissayles.com
https://www.linkedin.com/company/loomis-sayles-&-company/
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Loomis-Sayles/309712695756188
1:36 A rate-hike shock collar
8:12 Negative rates and the nature of safety
17:07 The 1984 bear market retest: Symmetry?
22:44 The “flow of funds phenomenon”
27:00 Dan’s positioning
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Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, LLC, calls in to assess conditions and opportunities around the world.
3:47 “There’s no such thing as a bargain in the absence of fear”
8:53 Shiller P/E and central banks
13:06 Bubbles in a negative-rate era
20:13 Deficit spending: Does it matter?
24:36 The nature of indexation
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Jeff Snider (@JeffSnider_AIP), head of global research of Alhambra Investments, calls in to discuss the workings of the modern financial system, and to offer his views on the best ways for investors to position themselves.
1:35 Eurodollars: What they are and why they matter
8:20 “There’s something wrong here”
14:55 Paul Volker and the bond bear market. A mirror to today?
18:02 Contrarianism and consensus
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Jim, Evan and Phil assess the state of play in high-yield credit, macroprudential regulation and an instructive recent op-ed in @WSJ.
1:40 #Trump and the USS John McCain
5:24 Do businesses need a rate cut?
10:26 An Aiful-ly low yield
16:16 Alternatives to raising rates
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Christopher Balding, associate professor at the Fulbright University of Vietnam, calls in to discuss all things China.
@BaldingsWorld
1:43 Dramatic change in the air. Social credit risk
5:15 Economic growth, real and reported
9:25 “They are shorter on dollar liquidity than most people realize”
15:11 Huawei: What do we make of it?
23:18 Inflation vs. deflation
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A super-sized episode. Jim, Evan and Phil discuss the latest financial happenings. Sabrina Fox, executive advisor of ELFA Investor Group, details the challenges awaiting creditors in Europe’s loan and high-yield debt markets.
@freewheelingfox
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sabrina-fox-45b29b7b/
https://elfainvestors.com/
1:12 Unicorns: Where’s the beef?
11:06 This Compass points away from the profits
15:38 European credit, a bird’s-eye view
23:02 Covenant erosion on either side of the Atlantic
29:33 Information asymmetry and liquidity in the secondary market
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Kent Collier and Sarah Gefter of credit research firm @Reorg call in to discuss the latest happenings in distressed debt.
www.reorg.com
@DDinvesting
3:51 2007, then and now
7:16 Taking inventory of the cycle
12:51 The J. Crew “trapdoor.” Innovation or gimmick?
18:02 Deteriorating accounting standards
20:38 Issues that might ring the bell
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Andrew Park, senior editor at S&P Global’s LCD unit, joins Grant’s to discuss all things credit.
1:35 The current cycle: What’s different?
5:45 CDOs in 2008 and CLOs today. Similarities and differences
12:01 Promised acquisition strategies: Dreams don’t always come true
15:55 Credit managers need new supply, and borrowers happy to oblige
https://www.spglobal.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-park-1b87642/
https://twitter.com/apark_
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George Friedman (@GPFutures), founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, calls in to discuss global goings-on and their potential investment implications. Jim identifies a potential long-term inflection point.
1:17 Germany’s upside-down banking system
7:29 Bad loans: A Chinese specialty
9:45 What to expect 90 years out?
14:28 The “Time Magazine indicator”
.@GPFutures
https://www.linkedin.com/in/georgefriedmangpf/
https://www.facebook.com/GeorgeFriedmanGPF/
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Barclay Leib (@btl0823) founder and principal of Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, comes by the office to discuss asset allocation, forensic accounting and Wall Street history.
1:44 Rules for selecting fund managers
5:40 Where does “edge” come from?
8:18 Fun and games in fund returns
12:17 The famous Hunt brothers trade
18:30 Unfavorable prices? Regulate them away
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Jim, Evan and Phil break down the watershed FOMC meeting this past week. Jim provides his updated reading list. 1:00 A startling announcement 5:15 2003 redux 10:08 E-Z money in the #economy 15:30 “Tools” and “frameworks” and “challenges” .@federalreserve Subscribe to the Grant's Current Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com
Michael Schaus, director of market research for Brenton Point Wealth Advisors LLC and Zweig-DiMenna, stops by the office to discuss the current outlook and to remember the great investor Martin Zweig.
https://brentonpoint.com/
1:37 The European Central Bank takes it easy
6:40 Negative interest rates, back in vogue
12:39 Market cap to GDP: An useful indicator?
20:50 Weighing stock picking vs. macro
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Jim and Evan discuss the latest monetary happenings, the retirement of a Wall Street legend, and a little baseball.
1:17 The Fed’s listening tour and William McChesney Martin
8:20 Inflation catch-up
12:45 “A lack of dynamism”
13:00 Bill Gross and the Bank of Japan
.@federalreserve
.@bank_of_japan_e
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Jim and Evan discuss recent happenings, with European credit and banking in focus.
1:32 French 30-year sovereigns offer “solid yields.”
3:40 Deutsche Bank, the big sick puppy
9:19 European banks and the so-called capital relief trade
10:45 Memorializing Dodgers great Don Newcombe
11:51 Amazon.com’s puffer jacket
.@DeutscheBank
.@Amazon.com
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As Japan marks 20 years of ultra-low rates, Jim and Phil take a look at monetary policies around the world. Jim shares his current reading list. 1:47 How long's secular? 3:50 Negative interest rates: a compendium 10:36 Grant's book club 14:57 The Fed's solvency, or lack thereof Subscribe to the Grant's Current Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com
Simon Mikhailovich, lead manager of the Tocqueville Bullion Reserve, stops by Grant's world headquarters to discuss doing business in the modern administrative state. 4:17 The "menacing" language of compliance 9:30 #Gold, negative-yielding bonds and safety 16:53 Jim's reading list .@S_Mikhailovich www.bullionreserve.com Subscribe to the Grant's Current Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com
Russell Napier, independent strategist and co-founder of the Electronic Research Interchange, joins the program to discuss the state of financial markets and his thought-provoking recent essay in the Financial Times.
3:18 “There’s a global monetary system?”
6:06 Central bank credit and “the savings glut”
11:28 Treasury yields: The world’s most reflexive asset class
18:35 ”The People’s Bank of China can inflate the whole world”
https://www.facebook.com/financialtimes/
https://www.eri-c.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/russell-napier-81292846/
https://www.linkedin.com/company/financial-times/
@ERICresearch
@FinancialTimes
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Alex J. Pollock, distinguished senior fellow at the R Street Institute in Washington and former president of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, calls in to discuss the state of our central bank’s own finances. @RSI @FHLBC
3:07 Unrealized losses and the printing press
6:27 Treasury issuance and the Fed
9:45 Negative capital. Does it matter?
15:55 Partially paid-in capital; echoes of the banking partnerships of old
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The usual suspects discuss an array of financial happenings, while Jim recaps a recent Grant's field trip. 1:20 Economists and diversity 7:31 @McDonalds franchisees; they ain't lovin' it 10:51 Buffalo bash 16:17 New year, new ideas? Subscribe to the Grant's Current Yield Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio, Google Play Music or listen from our website, www.grantspub.com
Keith Bronstein, commodities guru and president of TradeLink Holdings, LLC, calls in to discuss futures, interest rates and his latest big idea.
2:12 An opportunity in #eurodollar futures?
9:50 No-bid futures and modern finance
13:25 “Instability isn’t considered instability when prices rise”
20:01 Assessing the #Fed’s next moves
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Bob Farrell, longtime Merrill Lynch head of research, celebrated market technician and author of the widely cited 10 Rules for Investors, calls in to share his insights with Grant’s.
2:21 What’s changed, and what’s the same
6:40 “Excesses in one direction lead to excesses in another.” Does that apply to interest rates?
11:20 Capital allocation strategies in a lower-return environment
16:49 Buy and hold and cyclical fluctuations
20:13 Contrarian ideas right now
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Wendy Battleson, co-founder and principal of Art Strategy Partners, shares her expertise on the state of the market and its connection with other asset prices
1:48 Banksy’s self-destruct button
6:10 Guaranteed bids – for a fee
11:21 Inflation in Warhol’s
17:16 The art market; an extension of Wall Street?
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Michelle Leder, reporter and founder of Footnoted.com, stops by to discuss recent trends in corporate accounting and the regulatory environment. @footnoted
0:55 Accountants: Who needs them?
2:54 “Terms and conditions may apply”
10:48 Corporate shortcuts and the S.E.C.
13:12 The things that corrections correct
Click here to read Harvard Business Review article "Why we need to update Financial Reporting for the Digital Era".
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Jonathan Tepper, founder of macro research firm Variant Perception and author of The Myth of Capitalism, calls in to discuss the rise of corporate monopolies and its implications. @jtepper2
1:24 The Myth of Capitalism and Amazon.com, Inc.
6:08 The beer industry, duopolies and innovation
10:14 Low interest rate policy and the rise of #cartels
15:31 The “big pendulum” of anti-trust policy and the FAANGs
20:30 Buybacks and underfunded pensions
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Chris Whalen, publisher of the Institutional Risk Analyst and financial industry expert, stops by the office to discuss the economy, credit and the Fed. @rcwhalen
1:22 The banks, as safe as a house?
6:51 A tightening Fed and profits
10:55 Rising credit costs coming down the pike
6:48 Leveraged loans, then and now
20:04 Goodbye, wealth effect
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Dean Curnutt, founder and chief executive officer of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Grant’s to talk markets, volatility and anticipating the future. @Dcurnutt
1:42 Today and 2017, have things changed?
5:52 #Gold, the anti-S&P
11:23 Risk parity and trend followers: The next step
19:50 Opportunities in cyclical #stocks
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Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, joins the cast of characters to review pertinent signals in growth, interest rates and inflation.
4:48 The future path of inflation
9:34 Keynes and the 1960’s
12:36 An interest rate surprise?
17:03 Financial repression and conventional indicators
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Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor and distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution, pays Grant’s a visit to discuss the state of the world and markets.
1:55 Making sense of the move in bond yields
6:20 The Fed and the market. Who’s in charge?
11:41 Generation-length trends in interest rates
20:07 David Hume, corporate profits and interest rates
23:23 The evolution of money
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Jim, Evan and Phil hold forth on the topics of the day.
0:51 Profits and interest rates
7:48 Inflation, the very long view
9:51 Human achievements and #financial cycles
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Dan Gertner, Grant’s alum in the run-up to and the midst of the 2008 crucible, comes back into the fold to review those years of excess and subsequent panic.
1:27 An email from Alan Fournier
7:30 A memorable lunch meeting
12:45 Parallels to the present day
19:10 Refinitiv: The largest leveraged buyout since the #crisis
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John Haskell, head of research at Explorador Capital Management, joins Grant’s to assess opportunities in the particularly beaten down realm of emerging markets.
2:01 Where’s the value?
6:45 Argentina, bottom up investing under macro duress
10:43 Other opportunities in South #America
15:30 Implications of a bearish reversal in the U.S.
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Tony Canale, global head of research at Covenant Review, joins Grant’s to discuss what’s new in credit.
1:25 New laws in #Delaware and the J. Crew trapdoor
7:17 Overlooked risks for #corporate creditors
11:16 Triple-B, the frontier of #junk
17:30 Cycles, #fear and overconfidence
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The usual suspects hold forth on a variety of financial topics, while Jim shares some of his favorite current books.
0:55 What’s happening this fall
2:25 #Gold has no friends
5:50 Yield curve: Predictions, theory and history
7:12 Beach reading, Jim Grant style
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Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange and the Father of Financial Futures, joins Grant’s to help us make sense of the major changes that are coming to the world financial system.
1:32 What’s wrong with #Libor?
8:10 The Secured overnight #financing rate: Is it an improvement?
14:54 A potentially fraught transition from Libor
18:23 The role of #collateral
22:40 Milton Friedman, flexible exchange rates and the #gold standard
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China, the leveraged loan market, Netflix and the Los Angeles Dodgers utility-man (why not?) headline another scintillating investment discussion.
0:00 “Maximum” Max #Muncy and value investing
1:53 Cracks in the #China facade
5:19 Debt or equity? The #Netflix conundrum
11:05 Humphrey Hawkins redux and #crypto invades the CFA
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Jim, Evan and Phil discuss the world’s various points of pressure, and provide a few other trenchant observations.
1:05 The Declaration of Independence gets unfriended by #Facebook
3:52 HNA, #China and the world
7:02 Italy’s populists and the #European Central Bank
11:28 U.S. junk #bond yields on the move
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A Grant’s variety pack: Jim, Evan and Phil hold forth on an array of topical financial matters.
1:36 North Korea, AT&T and the future
5:10 A July 4 message from Thomas Jefferson
6:08 Changes in #China
13:55 Corporate buybacks and corporate debt
15:10 Crypto carnage
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Seth Daniels, founding partner of JKD Capital, LLC, and Ben Rabidoux, president of North Cove Advisors, join Grant’s for a thorough analysis of the Canadian housing market and the potential consequences of a downturn.
1:42 Housing: Canada’s #economic engine
5:50 Parallels to the U.S. experience
10:00 Mortgage #fraud and bad actors
15:05 What sort of opportunities are available for #investors?
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The indomitable Montana Skeptic (@MontanaSkeptic1) joins Grant’s for a hearty discussion of the most polarizing car company in the world,
1:51 Is a “supernova” third quarter in the works?
3:54 The basic #bear case
7:49 #Model 3 reservation holders: What now?
13:26 The lawyers circle
16:14 Montana’s overall #investment approach
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Francine McKenna, (@retheauditors) transparency reporter at MarketWatch, joins the regular cast of characters to discuss auditing and accounting trends, and their crucial role for investors.
4:07 What do investors get wrong about #financial statements?
8:41 Auditors do not draft financials
13:49 Are certain #law firms more likely to push the envelope?
19:48 Do auditors have a fiduciary duty to #investors?
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Jonathan Tepper (@jtepper2), chief editor of Variant Perception, and @John_Hempton, chief investment officer of Bronte Capital Management, share their macro and micro expertise on corporate concentration and corporate fraud.
2:09 How do managers contend with increasing industry consolidation?
8:51 “A time of #disruption”, while barriers to entry rise
12:04 Summertime for corporate #fraud
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Adam Cohen, founder of Covenant Review, joins Grant’s for an insightful overview of our loosey-goosey credit market.
1:20 “Read the footnotes,” then and now
8:41 Where is the danger for lenders?
13:54 Potential consequences of widespread cov-lite
Subscribe to the Grant's Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant's Interest Rate Observer is available at www.grantspub.com
Steven D. Bleiberg, managing director and portfolio manager at Epoch Investment Partners, Inc., joins the regular cast of characters for a lively discussion of modern portfolio theory and its limitations.
2:50 What is a stock, a portfolio, the #market?
6:20 The theory is now #reality
11:05 #Risk, asymmetry and indexing
14:33 Profit and the cost of #capital
Subscribe to the Grant's Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant's Interest Rate Observer is available at www.grantspub.com
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, LLC, joins the team to talk bonds, the Fed and much more.
1:00 Where are #rates going?
5:51 The #Fed and the Heisenberg principle
11:07 Potential consequences of a decade of interest rate #price control
15:10 The significance of a three percent 10-year #yield
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David Stockman, director of the Office of Management of Budget under President Reagan and master of mazy budgetary arithmetic, joins Jim and Evan for a scintillating discussion of fiscal and monetary matters.
0:00 The #Simpsons foreshadowing
3:20 Deficits and #debt monetization. What’s the harm?
9:01 Requiem for a #bond bull market
15:30 Sell what the #central banks are selling
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim, Evan and Phil revisit Grant’s 2017 bearish analysis of Facebook, with historical analog.
2:05 “Sell #Coke” 1996
6:06 Paul Fusselll and #human folly
10:41 Where do we stand now?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Biff Robillard, president and co-founder of Bannerstone Capital Management, LLC, joins the team to share his insights on the markets and investors’ state of mind.
1:40 Major changes are afoot
5:18 Rough road ahead for the #dividend aristocracy
9:05 #Pricing power, who has it?
14:55 Lack of #investor enthusiasm
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, Inc. and author of Predicting the Markets, A Professional Autobiography, joins Jim for a lively discussion.
1:52 Interest #rates, then and now
4:11: “The #bond market has been rigged”
7:22 #Inflation is the big risk
12:08 Has #macroeconomics succeeded?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim, Evan and Phil discuss the latest happenings in the Middle Kingdom and around the globe.
1:17 The People's Republic of #Debt
3:17 #Zombie bond market for zombie companies
7:10 ECB scorns #tariffs, buys bonds
13:09 The perils of #social media
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Stephen Stanley, chief economist and Xavier Negroni, co-head of the finance desk at Amherst Pierpont Securities, join the Grant’s team to try and make sense of the jump in short rates, while speculating on the Fed’s next move.
2:17 The mighty #dollar is getting no respect
6:48 The Feds Powell debuts in front of #congress
8:30 What are #credit spreads telling us?
11:15 "#Investors have lots of choices"
17:00 Stephen forecasts the 2018 #rate hike regime
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jon Boyar, president of Boyar Research, joins the team to discuss opportunities in U.S. equities that are not eligible for the major indices.
1:45 Jon’s approach to finding #value
5:40 Patience is a virtue
11:55 Jon’s investment process and a few of his favorite #stocks
Subscribe to Grant's Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant's Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Kai Stinchcombe, co-founder and CEO of True Link Financial, joins the team to discuss his recent article questioning the utility of the supposedly-groundbreaking software for digital assets.
2:07 The case against the #blockchain
4:14 A costless and decentralized form of exchange: #Cash
4:45 #Bitcoin conference doesn’t accept bitcoin
7:17 #Ripple and international payments
12:28 “Here’s your #libertarian paradise, have a nice day”
21:15 It works somewhere else!
Subscribe to Grant's Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant's Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Mark B. Spiegel, managing member at Stanphyl Capital, joins the team to discuss his favorite ideas, long and short.
2:47 #Tesla, a love affair in reverse
6:40 Opportunities in the nano-cap realm
10:02 Fewer public #companies. Less value?
12:13 Mark’s thoughts on agricultural #commodities
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Porter Stansberry, founder and editor of Stansberry Research, joins Jim for an enlivening conversation about the business and financial world at large.
1:33 What do people want to do with their money?
5:08 1999 and today
8:01 The #bitcoin pitch
12:48 Where is the #value?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim wraps up a most unusual 2017 and looks forward to the year to come.
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Andy McCulloch, head of Real Estate analytics at Green Street Advisors, gives Grants the lay of the land.
1:18 Does the "everything bubble" include RE?
4:44 Breaking down the #Westfield acquisition
13:02 Cheap financing in #Europe and international arbitrage
16:24 "What would #Buffett buy?" CapEx creates mispricings
21:21 Current attractive opportunities
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Grant’s welcomes Victor Shih, associate professor at The University of California, San Diego, to discuss that crucial question.
0:40 The #Steinhoff Saga
6:47 Is #China set up for near term financial calamity?
9:12 Debt service rising faster than #GDP
13:13 We owe it to ourselves
17:30 Economic rebound ahead of the #19th Party Congress
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
JHL Capital Group chief investment officer James Litinsky joins Grant’s to share his views on opportunities and risks around the world.
0:56 #India: Country of the future?
4:50 Current opportunities after a strong #rally
8:18 How to play late cycle in the #U.S.
10:47 The most vulnerable financial #assets
14:34 How much #cash to hold?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Special guest Bill Fleckenstein joins the Grant’s team to take inventory of current conditions
1:35 Triple-B-rated #bonds yielding less than zero
5:43 #Bitcoin and the apocalypse
7:28 #Tech, then and now
12:34 #Trump and volatility
15:52 What’s different this time?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
A lively discussion of the sometimes-lengthy wait for investment ideas to come to fruition
1:53 #GE in 1990
7:50 Mortgage #bonds in 2006
11:52 Valeant #Pharmaceuticals in 2014
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim and Evan welcome special guest Paul Isaac, CEO and Founder of Arbiter Partners, to discuss current opportunities and risks.
1:54 Paul’s #bitcoin trading strategy
7:40 Value in #Japan
12:30 Other periods of technological #disruption
14:45 Is #Exxon vulnerable to a market downturn?
17:14 Strategies for an expensive market
20:37 Paul’s favorite #stocks in the U.S.
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim, Evan and Phil hold forth on noteworthy sightings in credit, while Jim challenges a core premise of modern central banking.
0:43 #ECB taper announcement
2:36 Taylor Rule funds rate and the flattening yield curve
5:05 The search for “stability”
8:35 Kobe Steel bondholder surprise
9:55 10-year yield at a key level
12:14 The last great #bond bear. In like a lamb…
14:01 “Unprecedented in degree, persistence and circumstance”
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim, Evan and Phil take inventory of notable topics and unusual occurrences around the world.
2:50 Blackrock and Vanguard assets approach #China GDP
5:59 Indexation, or unmanaged #money?
7:13 Magically shape-shifting earnings at #GE
10:30 Market Makers: New kids on the block
12:43 1987 stock market #crash turns 30
17:47 #Treasury curve pancakes
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim and Evan discuss opportunities and risks in the restaurant industry with John Hamburger, president of the Restaurant Finance Monitor.
0:53 Employment trends and #business activity
2:42 Low rates begets overcapacity
6:28 Risks for franchisees
8:10 Who owns the #real estate?
11:45 Global synchronized recovery and record #credit creation
14:20 Timeless cyclical psychology
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim and Evan discuss the outlook for crude oil and other commodities with fund manager Adam Rozencwajg
0:48 President #Trump vs Candidate Trump
4:42 Adam’s thoughts on #oil
6:44 How to play a rising oil price
13:00 Implications of increased hedging activity
15:53 The outlook for #copper and #gold
Jim, Evan and Phil take inventory of notable financial developments, big and small, around the globe
0:37 European #highyield or Treasurys, take your pick
3:44 Homeowners in #China taking a shine to mortgage debt
7:13 Securities analysis is back
11:45 Cliff Asness, momentum and #Amazon
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
A common theme connecting some of today’s most popular investments: a very, very long time horizon
1:30 #Austria floats a 100-year bond
3:24 Limited supply of #bitcoin?
4:24 #Tesla promises one million cars per year
7:30 Five year/five year #Euro inflation swap rate
12:58 Hawkish hints
16:40 Half-empty #FOMC
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim and Evan discuss potential candidates to replace Janet Yellen, as well as some strange doings at The Social Network.
1:10 President #Trump and Central Bankers
5:23 It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future
11:03 #Facebook can’t count
14:04 Tajikistan’s incredible shrinking yield
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Jim and Evan break down the latest from the Swiss National Bank, along with the #Tesla bond offering, #cryptocurrencies and much more.
Click here to view the article discussed in this Podcast; Sell Coke
0:55 - Swiss National Bank
3:55 - Central Banks
6:05 - Corporate Bonds
7:23 - #Tesla
8:32 - Restaurant Jobs Growth
12:03 - Long Term Trends
14:19 - "Sell Coke"
18:34 - Bonds
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:23 #Bitcoin spinoff
4:19 #FANG short interest evaporates
5:35 Long distance #rate hike odds
8:32 Global #art sales collapsing
9:45 The travails of #BlueApron and others
12:06 Conversation with Shad Rowe
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:10 #Whirlpool earnings recap
4:10 #QQQ price/earnings methodology
11:15 ETF-ation
13:06 Sponsored by somewhat
15:30 False precision in #government statistics
17:24 Initial Coin Offerings #cryptocurrencies
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Articles mentioned in this #Podcast:
Sprott Asset Management July 2017 Strategy Report
2:10 Similarities between #cryptocurrencies and #gold
5:42 Which cryptocurrencies will survive and prosper
10:10 How can gold reassert itself?
16:06 Are digital coins #securities?
20:24 #Blockchain in the mutual fund business
24:30 Grant’s AMA: Jim’s P.A. holdings
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
Articles mentioned in this #Podcast:
Now comes ‘deconvergence’
Inside ACE Securities’ HEL Trust, Series 2005-HE5
Introducing the Grant’s Supermodel Credit Portfolio
2:52 Grant’s 1987 bearish call on #Japan
4:40 Sell common stocks, said #Grant’s in 1995
7:55 #AEM encounters the Wolverine
13:02 #Greece de-converges
15:00 2006 delusions
19:06 Grant’s #supermodel portfolio, December 2008
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:38 #Rates so high you can observe them 3:14 #Fed minutes recap 7:14 No such thing as a #wealth effect 10:14 #Inflation is too damn low 14:46 Excess capacity in the #restaurant industry 18:36 constant renewal of radical monetary policy Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
:07 Intro 1:16 Japanese banks and their #dollars 5:55 TCW's Tad Rivelle channels David Stockman 8:14 Janet #Yellen isn't worried 11:30 "The way forward is clear." Is that so? 14:02 #Kraft Heinz CEO responds to critics Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
2:25: Everything in #Illinois is going broke 6:07: Flattening yield curve, this time is different? 9:15: #Fed vs bond market 12:42 Charles Evans discovers #Amazon 16:20 We need #inflation? 19:00 Which way interest rates 21:45 Fundamentals in the #energy market Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:31 The #Fed is determined to hike #rates
5:28 Record private business #debt
8:17 Tightening cycles can have outsized consequences
9:00 The #German grocers are coming
11:30 #Fairway’s dead-wood expansion
13:00 #China’s curious #Anbang Insurance
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:36 New ETF & historically low volatility in markets
5:29 The unseens of the Ben Bernanke recovery
7:40 Lorenz on Swiss National Bank
10:51 What’s going on with Sprint?
14:05 Demand in automobile market
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
3:50 Why Singapore government debt is the best long idea
6:56 Are there any strong currencies?
9:33 Death of mercantilism
12:45 Napier on populism & the American Constitution
15:48 Where to buy stocks
19:30 Bullish on bonds
24:12 If Adam Smith were here...
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:53 French Presidential election
4:10 Guide for the buyer of euro-denominated French sovereign credit
8:30 Grant & Lorenz react to NY Fed President remarks on how markets are instruments of policy
10:57 Why are Chinese regulators fearful?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
0:29 Identifying short ideas
7:02 Cohodes on his approach
12:12 stamps.com model
23:23 Cohodes on Bank of the Internet
28:51 What’s going on w/ Canadian housing market?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:27 Grant & Lorenz on Jeffrey Lacker resignation
4:00 Will Donald Trump seriously consider a return to gold standard?
6:03 Fighting the Fed during a prior peak
14:32 The story of #2 Wall St
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1:33 Lorenz on the Eurodollar futures
4:01 What happened to hedge funds?
5:56 Are prices in grocery stores deflating?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:57 What will the Federal Reserve do & potential implications
4:25 Lorenz on the bull & bear cases for oil
9:36 The inflation rate you haven’t heard of
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
0:24 Inside the latest edition of Grant's
2:10 Lorenz on auto-lending
5:27 Warren Buffett & leveraged transactions in restaurant stocks
8:45 What is secular stagnation?
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
1:40 Nature of cycles & interest rates
6:35 What the current market climate means for your portfolio
10:00 History of treasury securities
15:35 Service of history to the markets
18:57 End of rising bond prices
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
0:28 Introduction & history of Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
4:20 Grant’s services and how it differentiates from mainstream outlets
6:40 How Grant’s ‘fades’ a consensus
9:45 Why to investigate alternatives
15:59 How Grant’s views the Federal Reserve
Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes & Stitcher. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com