Everybody Trades: Recent Episodes
John Miller
John Miller, an independent stock investor and former Chicago pit trader, unravels the mystery of money and wealth for EVERYBODY. Mizzou Journalism, 2005.
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Turns out, "fiscal conservatives" are better off when a Democrat is president. Are Trump voters happy with how he handled COVID-19?
Budget data: https://tinyurl.com/2p87tajx
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I'm back, and I'm more optimistic than ever before. Get ready for more regular E.T. content.
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If Bitcoin is ever going to become real money, it has one problem I'm not sure it can solve. Plus, was "Tulipmania" a symptom or the disease?
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With no place to call home, Trump voters MUST join the Libertarian Party.
Think fast: What is the No. 1 issue the GOP has championed during the Biden administration? [Crickets] If American needs to be "great again", we must understand what made it great in the first place. #MAGA voters and their values are openly hated by D.C. Republicans. Plus, a quick update on Bitcoin and Coinbase.
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If everybody who was currently happy with their job could keep it forever, that would be a utopia, right?
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I'm bullish on $COIN. "Day trading" is alluring, but investing is much easier. Plus, your posture and body language while looking at your smartphone say a lot about what it's doing to your brain and mood.
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You might think, sure, the market is helpful; technological innovation, for instance. But when it comes to "the big stuff", that is when we need central planning! However, it turns out, free trade actually solves humanity's most complicated problems, often invisibly.
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Accessing what I got right and wrong about Covid-19. Plus, is inflation back, and if so, why?
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What's the deal with GameStop, and should you buy it, sell it, or neither? Plus, short selling explained, and the ultimate "rigging" is revealed.
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Can you separate free thought from free trade?
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With new circumstances, I must modify an old rule of thumb for new traders. Plus, where have all the adults gone?
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We should all stop yelling at "the news"; they are just workin' us, brother.
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Continuing the theme from last week, let's look at some concrete examples of an overly frightened population leading to immoral policies.
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A frightened society is a morally malleable society.
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Why do "the terrorists" hate us? Is it American decadence? Christianity & Judaism vs. Islam? Or do "some men just want to watch the world burn"?
There is a lot of confusion about Middle East politics, and as usual, I'm here to clarify.
bin Laden's "letter to America": https://tinyurl.com/ndnd4kr
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If all cultures have their own version of religion, what happens psychologically when humans generally reject the spiritual notion of "God" and instead embrace ostensible deities on Earth?
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It looks like another trillion-dollar-plus stimulus is headed our way. What will this do for the stock market and Americans in general?
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How do investors hedge against the possibility of failing, fiat currencies? What is a "fiat" currency? I have actionable advice.
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How can the United States right the wrongs of the past without aggressing upon anyone in the present or future? I'm so happy you asked, because I have an excellent solution.
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If this COVID shutdown doesn't prove that we take free trade for granted, I don't know what does. Americans have received more money from Treasury, but have they received more value? Finally, there is still mental and physical value in doing some things yourself.
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Dr. Anthony Fauci said, "I don't give advice about economic things." How can that possibly be true when 30-plus million Americans are unemployed?
Plus, more thoughts on "one size fits all" via ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK.
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Was Joe Exotic a "Libertarian", or just an asshole? Let's clarify what liberty is, and just as importantly, what is it not.
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What can STAR TREK: THE NEXT GENERATION teach us about groupthink? Listen to the podcast to find out; resistance is futile.
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A forced shutdown of the economy threatens to cost thousands of livestock their lives for no reason. Fortunately, it's not too late. But we need to clearly understand the nature of the problem.
Plus, manage your notifications, manage your sanity.
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Don't let the "encyclopedia in your pocket" become your instant-gratification center/security blanket. Humans are wired to make themselves as comfortable as possible, but at what point have we gone too far?
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Why are people suddenly concerned that free trade cannot beat "slave labor"? You do not beat foreign political aggression with domestic political aggression.
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Updates on Covid-19, the market, the bailout bill, and more.
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I'm no medical expert, but as a trader/investor, I'm forced to make educated guesses about COVID-19 and, at the very least, its effect on human behavior and investments.
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Again, I'm not sounding an "all clear", but I would not bet on nuclear winter either.
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After a vicious two-week selloff, I give my thoughts on the stock market and the coronavirus.
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How much leeway should we give to supposedly "good intentions"? Frederick Douglass cared not for anyone's intentions, and simply wanted to be left alone politically. Perhaps Washington D.C. should finally listen to him?
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Sure, our kids can't read or do math, but that misses the point! The important thing is they KNOW they government is "indivisible"! Plus, is secession automatically a racist notion?
What is more risky: stocks or bonds? Diversification ain't what it used to be. Is your accountant working for you or against you? Finally, my take on the 2020 election and its effect on investments.
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In America, we generally don't haggle much. But make no mistake: There is a never-ending, unseen haggling process that is a huge part of the reason we have such abundance.
Was the Irish Potato Famine a "market failure"? How do we avoid a similar calamity? Are people going to run out of food someday? Plus, Conan O'Brien's ghost crooner, Artie Kendall, makes three appearances.
The Cheez-It ad about "running out of cheese" is clearly tongue-in-cheek, but why is our cheese supply seemingly unlimited? What creates this abundance? Also, "cheese" is not the ingredient the Kellog Company should be worried about.
As usual, the "news" out of D.C. regarding any foreign-policy event is entirely skewed in D.C.'s favor. Turns out, Iraq may not be the "beacon of democracy" that we were promised. The burden of proof must always be on the war interventionists.
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Are humans "not a peaceful species"? Also, no early Christmas presents, dammit!
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How have millennial money managers changed the stock market? Ultimately, who is in charge: producers or consumers?
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For better or worse, humans will adapt to almost anything. Why do we accept some ideas that clearly do not work? What freedom is, and what it is not.
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Many say Social Security is NOT socialism because “we paid into it.” How does that logic stand up to scrutiny? Where do the “gains” of the system come from?
In "Wet Hare", Bugs Bunny asks a pertinent question to a dam builder: "What gives you the right?"
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Let's answer, "Without government, who would build the roads?" once and for all. In "No Parking Hare", Bugs Bunny shows the proper disdain for eminent domain. Instead of taxpayers (essentially, everybody) being forced to subsidize new products, why not let the wealthy freely be our guinea pigs?
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While classic journalistic ethics would have newspapermen "speak truth to power", it seems that bromide often does not apply to police and other authorities. When a person is initially smeared by an incorrect report, the correction is rarely what the general public remembers. How do we solve this problem?
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We are well over a week into this NBA-China story, and somehow, people are still confused about this rather simple dynamic.
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Meanwhile, SOUTH PARK takes that boot, turns it sideways, and sticks it straight up Xi Jinping's candy ass. Can free expression and free trade be separated? I "love China" too, but the people and the government are not the same thing.
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For as much as we trust politicians, they must be better people than the masses, right? In this episode, I explore the nature of political power and natural power via the Stanford Prison Experiment and the classic SIMPSONS episode "Separate Vocations".
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The mainstream media and history always use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as their economic metric of choice; what is GDP, and does it actually tell us anything? Plus, did World War 2 really end The Great Depression? And if so, does that mean Thanos (from THE AVENGERS) was right?
Naomi Brockwell: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSuHzQ3GrHSzoBbwrIq3LLA
THE BITCOIN STANDARD: http://www.amazon.com/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=the+bitcoin+standard&tag=googhydr-20&index=aps&hvadid=241646740483&hvpos=1t1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=8418363212354790319&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1020268&hvtargid=kwd-380765199490&ref=pd_sl_5qpegdfty3_e&hydadcr=21900_10170863&gclid=CjwKCAjwq4fsBRBnEiwANTahcC6ELAaVBi2FZooOUgRFi3kzCoI_iisO5kKBFdacDMkqctAMdhVCshoCL98QAvD_BwE
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No one should ever pay for insurance on a “device”. Why do people have a skewed relationship with risk? Are we ALWAYS “better safe than sorry”? Finally, who are “The Holdouts”, and why should we thank them?
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With all the talk of fires in the Amazon, South Park's "Rainforest Schmainforest" must be consumed again. Who owns the rainforest, and what type of society would better manage "the environment"?
Plus, Eric Cartman yelling at poor Costa Rican people to "get a job" is actually a fairly common sentiment; are "hard work" and "rugged individualism" the best way to sell liberty to the masses?
Jesus Huerta de Soto link: www.jesushuertadesoto.com/articles/art…ntalism/#uno
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The Framers and Founders of the United States were indeed brilliant in many ways, but like all people, they were imperfect and made mistakes. "Checks and balances" don't work nearly as well as they intended. Plus, let's break down the true insanity of "tacit agreement".
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Depending on your situation, buying a home can be a fine idea. But what happens when “the American dream” becomes a nightmare? Before buying, consider the many expenses involved, including property taxes and insurance. What is the “$1 Per Square Foot Rule”? Ignore social pressures and make an independent, informed decision.
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What do ESPN's Matthew Berry, Bob Dylan, Homer Simpson, and Abe Simpson have to do with human prosperity and growth? Everything. Absolutely everything. Find out how on a new Everybody Trades.
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Rand Paul was right, and the D.C. media and political establishment should be ashamed of itself. Ironically, a bunch of Twitter users approve of violence against Paul, the most prominent anti-war voice in the Senate.
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Americans seem to largely agree that, in criminal trials, the burden of proof should be on the state. Why is that not so in other forms of state aggression? There are plenty of “reasonable doubts” when it comes to government action, and history teaches no clearer lesson.
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Price controls do not work, and this proposal is simply another price control. Our City Council has apparently never heard of "pregaming" or the Nixon-fueled oil-price ceilings of the 1970s.
After putting a bow on the previous "Millennials vs. Boomers" show, I explore the dichotomy of sportsmanship and how it prepares kids for "faking it" at important moments in life.
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The SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE gameshow sketch "Millennial Millions" shows, once again, that the nature of government programs is conflict. Also, make no mistake, this episode is not me bashing millennials nor boomers. Instead, let's have a better understanding of what types of societies and laws create not only wealth but social cohesion and peace.
("Millennial Millions": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATTMB4gH3sU)
Language, the foundation of any society's legal system, emerges naturally and without central command. What should that tell us about human nature and the ability of other things to exist free of government fiat? Like mother nature, language is paradoxically wild and ordered.
After spending a bit too much time in hospitals recently, one thing is obvious to me: Hospitals are short on staff. What is the cause of this, and how can it get better?
Harrisburg has become the center of a mid-Missouri political controversy that affects the entire region, including Columbia. In the land of tornadoes, are we sure giant blades, sitting hundreds of feet in the air, is a great idea? Does wind energy actually combat "climate change"? How does nuclear energy produced in Callaway County compare to this proposed wind power plant, in terms of "footprint" and efficiency? Why do wind power plants require massive amounts of land compared to nuclear? And what about safety and nuclear waste?
The Columbia Missourian's two-part piece about this local issue was quite good.
Part 1: https://www.columbiamissourian.com/news/local/northwest-missouri-wind-power-projects-a-boon-to-some-a/article_7fcab784-6b6e-11e9-b1fa-f7097fb2e0a0.html
Part 2: https://www.columbiamissourian.com/news/local/boone-county-braces-for-potential-wind-energy-project/article_82da3da4-727c-11e9-b5f2-c775133e4d0d.html
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"Draftee Daffy" proves, once again, that Looney Tunes was brilliant and ahead of its time. The short cartoon is also the perfect jumping off point for conscription and foreign neutrality. And, let's be honest, Daffy's over-the-top, patriotic singing never gets old.
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The famous (for 48 hours) first photo of a blackhole reportedly cost about $19 million. Who could argue with a bargain like that? Dollar amounts have become meaningless at NASA and other public entities. Naturally, I tie the monologue into "Deep Space Homer".
(Link to video discussed in the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZnXPDlFprI)
For the love of God (literally), do NOT spend your Easter weekend reading the boring and inconsequential Mueller report. You know what's a million times more important? Trump's veto re: Yemen. Why were Obama and Trump, as candidates, far more dovish than their hawkish selves as presidents?
The college-admissions scandal involving Lori Loughlin certainly has a gross elitism to it, but is that the most alarming part of the story? When did expecting a fair trial become naive? Plus, why people should NOT leave impossible tasks "to the experts".
How much should you pay to attend "Angry White Male Studies" at the University of Kansas? In 2019, what is a college education's value? Is the education establishment on the brink of collapse? Perhaps people don't NEED to attend college for four years or more. Finally, are Americans truly "born free" if they are assigned a government number at birth?
THE GODFATHER is not only a classic film series, it challenges state power in a way rarely found in today's mainstream cinema. Is a contract, social or otherwise, valid if one party has no reasonable way to say "no"? Are mafiosos and senators "part of the same hypocrisy"? Does political power differ from mafia power? Is it OK for me to take someone else's money if it's "just enough to wet my beak"? And who decides what is "just enough"? Finally, the movies have interesting lines about guerrilla warfare, World War II, Fidel Castro, and more.
President Donald Trump and Rep. Ilhan Omar have something in common. Should "politics" (really, speech) "stop at the water's edge"? "Shut up" is not an argument, it's a threat. I'm not a fan of Omar, per se, but I REALLY am not a fan of people in DC telling me what I can and cannot say.
In AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR, Thanos thinks he can "save" the universe by killing half the living and/or intelligent beings in it. First of all, he's wrong. But even if his premise were correct, doesn't "half" seem pretty arbitrary? "You don't know that!" is the quote of the film. If overpopulation is going to doom humanity, then why are we better off today with far more people than ever?
Pattern-recognition is helpful in investing and all aspects of life, so why has it become verboten? George H.W. Bush thought THE SIMPSONS were problematic in 1992, and now it’s the political left. Freedom is great, but it also gives us a lot of time to overthink. Plus, regional-to-national stocks, and why humanity misses the home telephone.
The most complex problems in life are solved by individuals acting in their own self-interests, not one person or group shoving their interests down our throats. Is it too much to ask that the interest shovers practice what they preach? (Ed Bagley: You're cool.)
In any speculative endeavor, you should always first ask yourself, "What is my edge?" Think about your speculative opinions in terms of "coin flips" versus perceived value. Plus, what can the video-game business teach us about "winners" and "losers" in the stock market?
The Green New Deal, zoning laws, and gas taxes all have at least one thing in common: The Crowding Out Effect. Prices rising artificially has contributed to "gentrification" of neighborhoods, so why wouldn't we expect the same dynamic at airports? Plus, my thoughts on this rising stock market.
Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have more in common than you might imagine. Can the government print its way to prosperity? If so, why collect taxes? Is AOC "speaking truth to power"? Without natural supply and demand (the market), how do we know what people need, and in what quantity? How many Democratic voters are on board with "no flying in 10 years"? What did the "old" New Deal actually do to raise prices? (This is the James Corden tweet/video I refer to in this episode: twitter.com/JKCorden/status/1093634176845139968)
Trivia: Do you know who Alice Parker is? If not, you should. We ALL should. Why do North Dakota dairy farmers get out of bed when it's -40?
The rush to judgment re: Nathan Phillips/Covington High is unbecoming of a free people. "The news" got this story wrong on purpose. Social-media culture is poisonous. What's better: The Golden Rule or The Social Contract?
What is the difference between foreign and domestic sanctions? The geographic location of the victims. Without government interference, national parks retain enormous economic value; why would anyone destroy that? Should we rely on an entity thousands of miles away to arrange restroom upkeep?
I give a much needed market update. A useful Keynes quote! Isolationism or neutrality? Trump’s Syria “withdrawal” and surprise visit to Iraq. Low-cost vs. high-cost virtue signaling. We need more literal and figurative “Boy Scouts”.
It doesn't matter how good of a navigator you are if have the wrong map. Plus, the one thing you should eliminate from your diet NOW.
I like Phil Hartman's Frankenstein as much as anybody, but let's have a more nuanced take, shall we? Is private fire protection simply the "white-gloved" realm of the rich? Insurance companies shouldn't profit off fire damage, right? Well, good news: They don't.
Whatever happened to the large, comfortable sedan? Why are airline seats getting smaller? Why are small-town hospitals closing? Short answer: the Crowding Out Effect. Long answer: this show. Plus, I debut my Mitch McConnell impression.
Human nature can be frustrating, but let's never lose sight of how good we all have it because of other people's ideas and labor. Also, who is ready to live on Mars? You first.
The December Federal Reserve meeting can't come soon enough. Why did the NASDAQ turn so bearish? How do interest rates affect stocks? Only a select, politically connected class benefits from a trade war. (Stock discussed: NVDA)
Should people look into owning their own medical-marijuana dispensaries in Missouri? What about cannabis plays in the stock market? Plus, why did the KC Health Department pour bleach on homeless people's food? (Cannabis story: https://fox2now.com/2018/11/13/questions-raised-on-missouris-implementation-of-medical-marijuana/) ("Bleach" story: http://www.fox5ny.com/news/kansas-city-health-department-pours-bleach-on-food-meant-for-homeless-people#/)
A figurative mob got Norm McDonald, and a literal mob showed up at Tucker Carlson's house. But all CNN wants to talk about is Jim Acosta's press pass. What does all of this have to do with free speech? Everything. (Full Norm McDonald clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMEp6IgR9RY&feature=youtu.be)
Elections matter, but not as much as free trade and human nature. Win or lose, Americans and humans in general are better off that they've ever been. The power of positivity!
Of the three medical cannabis initiatives on the Missouri ballot, which one should supporters vote for? Plus, I share my views on cannabis legalization and use, some of which might surprise you. (Sandy Davidson/Dan Viets piece: https://www.columbiamissourian.com/opinion/local_columnists/sandy-davidson-here-s-the-medical-marijuana-measure-that-would/article_07f117bc-d79e-11e8-9697-bf840219740f.html)
With this huge selloff, I guess that's the question, isn't it? Are we heading for another 2008-like recession?
Jamal Khashoggi was more than a columnist/journalist, and his adversarial relationship with the Saudi family exposes a great deal. Plus, if the Saudi's didn't sell oil to Americans, what would they do with it?
Step 1: Get your holiday shopping finished early. Step 2: ??? Step 3: Profit! (In all seriousness, you ladies are going to like this take.) Plus, Netflix reports a great quarter; what's the actionable advice?
What the heck is the Phillips Curve? And what's up with this stock market? Why does it seem like good news is bad news?
Much has been said about Brett Kavanaugh, the man, but what about his judicial opinions? Might those matter as well?
It is time to admit U.S. Concrete was a horrible mistake and fold the hand. Is Adobe the best #ForgetItMoney company of all? The iPhone’s history shows a perfect roadmap for investing in new technology. Also, what’s up with dental hygienists?
Richard Branson and Elon Musk on "universal basic income". Jim Carrey on socialism. Finally, your fantasy football league is a model for a truly free society.
In a world where everything is supposedly cheaper and easier online, how do traditional, brick-and-mortal retail shops compete? Some local Columbia shops show the way. Also, Pizza Hut is terrible, and you know it!
I haven’t made a lot of trades lately, but rest assured, I’m still quite engaged. Might there be a positive wealth effect from Hurricane Florence? (Spoiler alert: Hell no.) And what does a broken window have to do with with gross domestic product (GDP)? Stocks: ULTA, USCR.
Contrasting earnings results and “guidance” is like contrasting the past with the future. Speaking of the future, are you SURE the value of your house will only increase forever? Like all “easy” investment ideas, “The American Dream” is seductive.
If your broker advises you to buy a penny stock, it’s time to get a new broker. My take on SEC Championship odds partially explains how I value stocks. Young men and mental health. Finally, Shohei Ohtani isn’t from Japan, he’s from another dimension.
Mychal Kendricks was cut by the Cleveland Browns after he admitted to “insider trading”. I explore the logical fallacies of such laws. Further, what can Chick-Fil-A and the passionate reactions to Nike’s latest Colin Kaepernick spot teach us about the stock market?
Panic is not a strategy; sometimes it’s best to do nothing. The Cleveland Browns have a financial debate on HARD KNOCKS. The Baltimore Orioles’ Adam Jones exercises his contractual rights, and people are mad? “He works with me” not ”for me”. And what in the Sam Hill could possibly require that many keystrokes, retail employees?
Stocks: NVDA, DBX.
(Correction: I incorrectly refer to Browns DL Carl Nassib as "Tony".)
How Carp and Tommy Pham explain the perils of judging future value. A quick Ulta Beauty update. Plus, why the new “Xi Jinping” pronunciation feels like an elaborate joke on me.
DropBox takes us on a wild ride to nowhere. Know thyself, and do NOT blindly follow me. Ulta Beauty checks multiple boxes. Clarifying my #PermitPatty “hate”. Finally, anonymous sources are important and dangerous.
A deep dive on Jim Cramer’s skepticism of “command-and-control” economies and David Faber’s astonishment. What’s the difference between "Beijing" and China? D.C. and America? Could there be another Chinese revolution? “This got deep in a hurry…” Plus, a couple pertinent sound bytes from "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee", featuring Jerry Seinfeld, Julia-Louis Dreyfus, and Bill Burr.
What gives #Permit Patty her power? Facebook and Twitter stock action a harbinger of bad things? It’s time to buy defense stocks, if you have not already. Tweet: “If you think about it. People with glasses are literally paying to use their eyes. Capitalism is a bitch.”
How do we calculate the collective, subjective value of gigantic, collective projects like the moon landing or the Hubble telescope?
Then, Trump on Rates (7:40). Was the Federal Reserve created to protect the wealthy? Why is the burden of proof only on the state during criminal proceedings? Inflation of the money supply is theft of wages and savings. Why don’t we get a vote on the Fed chairman?
Watch The Foundation: https://youtu.be/j9afh0dJ9jE
Market update. More tariff mania; is China’s dictatorship actually an advantage in a trade war? What the heck is a “trade war” anyway? Impress your friends at cocktail parties by knowing what “comparative advantage” is.
(Stocks mentioned: WRK, SPOT, NFLX.)
With earnings season upon us, I use Netflix as an example of value. (By the way, if you bought NFLX on my recommendation, you're welcome.) Also, what's up with every Supreme Court justice being from one of two colleges? THE SIMPSONS's Stonecutters might tell us something (7:17).
SCOTUS has changed the relationship between citizens and taxation. Miss America activists don’t want to change the Miss America pageant; they want to change human nature. Finally, a stirring tribute to Joe Jackson.
(No individual stock talk.)
I have an honest monologue about Bitcoin. Plus, what do Sarah Sanders and peyote have to do with the freedom of expression? Everything!
Stocks discussed: NFLX, DBX.
SPECIAL EDITION: Please indulge me, as I react live to the 5th through 14th picks of the 2018 NBA Draft.
(No stock or economics talk in this one.)
Tons of stock advice and talk in this one. Plus, are there actual Hiltons in Hanoi?
Stocks mentioned: DBX, ETSY, BABA, SPOT, IDXX, C, GS, JPM, NUE.
Check out the brand new EverybodyTrades.com, which includes FREE portfolio access.
Plus, navigating information overload, unnatural social-media interactions, and what fantasy baseball has taught me about the market.
(No individual stock talk in this edition.)
I also discuss the market, tariffs, Tommy Robinson, THE $18 BILLION PRIZE, and of course, Roseanne.
Stocks discussed: HII, SPOT.
In this episode, I bring in my parents for an in-depth discussion on BARRY's first season. Spoiler-heavy!
(No stock talk in this one.)
The NSNG diet works, but the government’s food pyramid is a borderline religious symbol. I lost 35 pounds with better information, and some still won’t listen to me.
Plus, sports betting, SWAT teams, and what the heck is going on with WWE stock?
Why pile debt on top of your children, when most people don’t even directly use their degree? As a college graduate, I can promise you, it’s not a panacea. The days of “finding yourself” should be over; not for the current price.
Plus, a recap of the last two market weeks.
Stocks discussed: SPOT, RTN, USCR, WHR, FB, HON, AMZN, NKE.
Do NOT panic on defense stocks. Emotional time shifting. Should a single person buy life insurance? How much of a stock’s move is based on its sector? 4/20 irony. Robot and tax fallacies.
Stocks discussed: RTN, NOC, LMT, HXL.
After another scary day in the market (we have to stop meeting this way), what stock did I start a large position in today?
Again with the tariffs? Beijing responds. How to spot the next recession. A stock pick that plays off volatility.
After another tough day in the market, what's the game plan for tomorrow? Will "FAANG" ever go up again? What's up with Trump? This, plus some stock picks.