Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen: Recent Episodes
Ricochet
Each week Henry Olsen, Washington Post columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, will talk about the presidential and congressional races with leading political journalists and analysts, people who are out in the field and won't give you media spin. Find out who's leading the pack and who's an also-ran, with Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen.
Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance's debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns.
Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave McCormick based on his time in the private sector.
Selena Zito joins Henry today to talk about the all-important Keystone State. They discuss the voter sentiment shift that occurred between Obama's ten-point win in 2008 and Trump's narrow victory in 2016. They home in on the counties that will decide who takes Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, and consider how Kamala Harris's slight lead in the polls might be overstated.
Plus, Henry dives into the early voting numbers thus far. Is much ado being made about just a little? Tune in for big answers!
In the era of the perpetual campaign, debates don't move the polls like they used to. But Henry breaks down how, in a presidential race as tight as this, Kamala Harris' victory on Tuesday night may move the needle one or two points in a race where one or two points makes all the difference.
Then, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins to give an update on the key House and Senate races. He and Henry play out hypothetical scenarios on how a narrow Trump or Harris win in toss-up districts might sway the chambers.
Finally, Henry takes a look at Angela Alsobrooks' latest ad, which tries to sway Independents and Democrat leaners from putting Larry Hogan on the national stage.
Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.
Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.
Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes.
Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.
Today’s guest, Jeff Roe—who’s been dubbed “the next Karl Rove”—grew up on a hog farm and is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a renowned Republican consulting firm. Guess which trade he thinks is dirtier? He joins Henry to give us the insider’s take on the practical realities of campaign strategy, past, present and future.
Plus, as the DNC comes to a close, Henry asks the multi-million dollar question: Does this show really matter anymore?
In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness.
Plus, Henry wonders about the staying power of Kamala-mania; and unpacks an Arizona attack ad that highlights the firebrand Kari Lake's baggage.
The tickets are set, and Americans are looking at a stark choice between two very different futures. Henry is joined by Michael Podhorzer — former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the Weekend Reading substack. The two dive into the campaign framing between a MAGA or normal election that past polling shows will all but guarantee the outcome in November.
Plus, Henry rants on what Tim Walz's selection tells us about the Harris campaign; and he takes a look at Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown's border ad where he poses as... a Republican.
With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.
Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base.
The tectonic shakeup in American politics continues, as Joe Biden bows out and Kamala Harris appears positioned as Democratic heir apparent. Henry digs into the challenges she faces as a well-known figure with high unfavorability, and considers how she might attempt to expand her appeal. Next, Daniel Scarpinato joins to assess the key primaries in the ever-interesting Grand Canyon State. They break down the fight among Democrats to defeat David Schweikert in AZ 1, the Republican scrap to replace Debbie Lesko in AZ 8, and the race to replace Reuban Gallego in AZ 3. Finally, he takes a look at a moving abortion ad in Nevada that aims to keep Sam Brown out of the Senate.
It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.
Washington's worst-kept secret is out: Joe Biden is not up to the job he's campaigning for. Today's guest is former White House Press Secretary and Fox News host Dana Perino. No stranger to balancing the priorities of the nation's inquiring minds with those of the administration, she joins Henry to discuss a presidential fiasco like no other we've ever seen.
Plus, Henry digs into the debate that finally got Democrats talking about Biden's decline; considers how down-ballot candidates will be affected; and speculates on how the party might clean up its mess. He also takes a look at Maggie Newlander's impressive introductory ad.
After 14 years at the helm, the polls tell us the British Tories are facing a slaughter on Thursday. To get at the party’s collapse, Henry hops across the pond to discuss British politics with a couple of swell chaps. First up is The Times’ Tim Montgomerie, who covers the post-Brexit smashing victory and the subsequent failure to deliver to the new coalition. Then Matthew Goodwin joins to dig into the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, and the Reform Party’s challenge to the status quo.
And if you're new to the British parliamentary system, fret not! Henry's got a rant to get you up to speed.
- Music from this week's show: "Rule, Britannia" performed by the Prince's Military Band and "The Star Spangled Banner" performed by Frank C. Stanley (via the Library of Congress)
If you want to win an election, you gotta campaign. And to campaign, you gotta get a lotta dough! This week Henry chats with R. Rebecca Donatelli, founder of Campaign Solutions, for a deep dive into the world of online political fundraising.
Plus, Henry rants ahead of a debate that (we're told) won't change anybody's mind. And he breaks down a big introduction ad for a newcomer candidate who hopes to take Kansas 2.
Chuck Warren of the Breaking Battlegrounds Podcast joins Henry for a close inspection of the ever-interesting state of Utah. They get into the characteristics that make it a red state like no other as they dig into the primaries for Mitt Romney's Senate seat and congressional districts 2 and 3.
Plus, Henry takes a look at Trump's sustained lead in the polls; later he compares the ad strategies of South Carolina CD 3 primary candidates Mark Burns and Sheri Biggs.
J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, returns to peer into the contested primaries in Virginia's 5th, 7th and 10th congressional districts. These deep dives into the respectively red, purple and blue territories, Coleman and Henry survey this microcosm of the national stage.
Plus, Henry unpacks Emmanuel Macron's snap election gamble to head off his populist archfoe Marine Le Pen; and he looks at two finely crafted ads for Democrat Mary Peltola's tough reelection bid in Alaska.
The verdict is in but it's still early to tell exactly what it means for Donald Trump's bid to take back the White House. To weigh the possibilities, The Federalist's Mollie Hemingway joins Henry. They also cover Joe Biden's innumerable vulnerabilities to an electorate whose minds may remain unchanged; they parse through the criteria Trump might consider for his VP pick; and appraise the conservative brand in the counter-revolutionary era.
Plus, Henry takes a close look at Josh Stein's ad attacking Mark Robinson's fervent anti-abortion statements in hopes of pulling ahead in the tight North Carolina Governor's race.
Cook Political Report's Amy Walter returns to the podcast to break down the latest findings from her 2024 Swing State Project. She explains voters' thoughts and expectations on the economy; provides analysis of the low Undecided/high third party numbers; and offers her take on the Democrats' scramble to keep its diverse base on the party premises.
Plus, Henry dives into a multi-decadal series of "Right Direction/Wrong Track" polling results to give us a sense of what it might mean for November; and he takes a look at John Avlon's deft pitch for partisan Ds and moderate Rs in New York's red 1st Congressional District.
As Donald Trump leads on the backstretch of the 2024 presidential race, Biden makes use of his whip, challenging his opponent to an unconventional debate. Henry takes a deep dive into this necessary bold strategy. Then he's joined by NBC's national political correspondent Steve Kornacki. The two discuss the president's failure to gain traction as Trump maintains momentum.
Plus, Henry takes a close look at two ads for Tony Gonzalez — one from his campaign, the other from the RCJ SuperPac — against challenger Brandon Herrera in Texas 23.
Henry’s back after a brief hiatus as election season heats up! He's joined by National Review's Jim Geraghty to parse out the parties’ business-as-usual dysfunction from the special brand of it we've gotten used to recently. They consider whether the Republican Party even knows what it wants; what they’ll do if they pull off the trifecta in November; and what we should make of tight polls considering the Biden/Harris ticket’s historic unpopularity.
Plus, Henry delivers his first ever Bad Ad of the Week, in response to Don Blankenship's clunker spot; and he makes a quick stop in Maryland to explain why Angela Alsobrooks' personal touch won out over David Trone's big money.
Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights joins to discuss his new book, The Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. He and Henry consider why the shift has occurred, why so few saw it coming, how sustainable a working class Republican Party really is, and what to make of it as a global phenomenon.
Plus, Henry brings back the dueling ads of the week, this time pitting Jon Tester against Sherrod Brown.
What to make of the astounding, worldwide coalition shifts we've seen over the last decade? There are few better to pose the question to than Ruy Teixiera. He and Henry dive into the Democratic Party's abandonment of the white working class and the Republican Party's clumsy attempt to win them over.
Plus, Henry takes a look at a well-made ad from the Lauren Boebert team
Beyond the Polls listeners are all about the little details, and this week Henry's joined by Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at a premiere nonpartisan political analysis outfit, Inside Elections. They take us through a trip across the country to dig into the approaching Senate primaries in West Virginia & Maryland, along with House primaries in Pennsylvania’s 12th, Indiana 5, Maryland 3, Oregon 5, and the Republican runoff in Texas 23.
Plus, with the fight over abortion heating up, pushing politicians to take concrete positions, Henry takes us through the approaches partisans should consider to move the needle in their direction. And, boy oh boy, we have quite an ad to discuss this week!
We take a long look at both sides of the pond this week, accompanied by Director of polling firm JL Partners Scarlett Maguire. She takes us through her team's innovative polling methods which have made them among the standouts for accurate predictions. She also takes us through their latest efforts in following the Trump/Biden rematch in the States and the crisis facing the Tories in Britain.
Plus, Henry breaks down Donald Trump's favorable showing in the Wall Street Journal swing state poll; and for the first time ever, we've got dueling ads of the week!
AEI's Senior Fellow Emeritus Karlyn Bowman returns to answer some questions and poses others on one of the essential political puzzles of the day: the growing separation between the sexes. Plus Henry speculates on how Donald Trump might blunt Joe Biden’s cash edge, and breaks down the latest attack ad against Mike Braun.
Peter Robinson drops by for a detailed discussion with Henry about the road away from The Gipper's GOP. They consider the ways even acolytes misunderstood Reaganism and why that resulted in the extraordinary coalition shifts we're witnessing today.
The Ohio primaries are fast approaching, so we're off to the Buckeye State. Longtime Republican strategist Mark Weaver breaks down the top contests, including the tight, three-way race to take on incumbent Senate Democrat Sherrod Brown. Plus Henry covers Biden’s SOTU address. What does he make of this preview of Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign strategy, and how will the partisan messaging fare as the Democratic Party loses its popular vote edge? Tune in to find out!
The primary season is over; a second Trump/Biden presidential race is all but certain. Transitioning to the general, CNN psephologist Harry Enten joins to explain the notable demographic shifts and electoral patterns that have taken shape since 2020. Plus, Henry takes us through Donald Trump's unique success at building out from the party base; and we stop by purple Wisconsin to see how Tammy Baldwin goes about defining challenger Eric Hovde.
Those hoping for a sign that a 2020 presidential rematch could be averted will be disappointed by Tuesday's primaries in the Wolverine State. National Review's Rich Lowry joins to explore what Donald Trump's grip on the GOP means for the future of conservatism. Plus, Henry takes a look at the effectiveness of the Michigan Democratic Party's "Uncommitted" pressure campaign against Joe Biden.
Donald Trump is set for another smashing victory on Saturday, this time against his lone challenger in her own state of South Carolina. But Nikki Haley's announced that she won't stay down. Charleston Post and Courier Political Editor Schuyler Kropf joins to conduct a close examination of the campaigns. Plus, Henry considers Team Haley's post-South Carolina strategy, and he makes a quick trip up to North Carolina where a new candidate named Fred Von Canon is eager to introduce himself.
The days of landline polling are gone forever, the internet has changed everything. This week Henry is joined by Chief Scientist at YouGov and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Douglas Rivers to discuss the innovative methodological approach he uses to find representative polling samples when much of the electorate is unwilling to respond to polls.
Henry also takes a closer look at Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District and explains how the good day for Democrats might signal an underlying general election problem for their party. And stay tuned to the end for his take on the Super Bowl ad that got everyone talking about a man named Kennedy.
Henry may be off in paradise to cover the Virgin Islands' Republican presidential caucuses, but he's back for another deep dive into American politics. He enjoys what looks at first glance like a nothingburger in Nevada, and lays out what it means for Joe Biden, Nikki Haley and the man who wasn't on the GOP primary ticket. He also breaks down Adam Schiff's tricks to face a Republican for California’s empty Senate seat. And you'll hear about the battle for the House with Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik.
To anyone who seriously follows electoral politics, today's guest will need no introduction. Nate Cohn joins Henry to cover the ins and outs of the polling world: everything from the voter file to polling aggregation; plus Nate's precinct analysis and the “Election Needle”. They also discuss the problems with issue polling and the demographic warning signs for the Democratic Party.
And Henry's got a rant for Joe Biden, whose failure to strike a deal with Mike Johnson means missing out on a political win at home and a policy win abroad.
Hugh Hewitt joins Beyond the Polls for a rousing discussion of politics at home and abroad. They search for common threads and draw distinctions among the nations seeing populist waves; and they dig in to the Trump-Haley race for the Republican nomination.
Plus, Henry reminds us that the Republican primary wasn’t the only contest held in New Hampshire. Listen to his rant about Joe Biden’s mediocre day in the Granite State and what it could mean for the general election.
Nikki Haley's trying to make a stand in New Hampshire. But she has her work cut out for her. Henry reconvenes with his Granite State pal Danta Scala to discuss the turnout Haley needs and the challenges she'll have trying to drive two messages—one to moderates, another to conservatives—in New Hampshire's paid media blizzard.
Plus Henry rants professorially this week to anatomize the Iowa results, and considers an effective Haley ad which utilizes a word we haven't heard much of from her campaign.
One can’t help but wonder if Iowans are really going to go out in droves on a night with expected -35 degree wind chill to cast their votes for Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy? President of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Steve Scheffler joins to remind us that the Hawkeye State is made up of hardy people. He and Henry cover the remaining candidates and what they might reasonably hope for on Monday’s Caucus.
Henry also breaks down the keys to Trump’s successful campaign and Haley’s recent ad that highlights her talent for maximizing appeal to a broad base of voters.
The election year has arrived and the quest to defeat Donald Trump continues, but there's a growing suspicion that this journey's heroes are living in a fantasy land. Henry sits down with Spectator Editor-in-Chief Ben Domenech to discuss these interesting times the country finds itself in—and be sure to stick around for Ben's placement of the candidates in the realm of Dungeons and Dragons and popular memes.
And even after last episode's Festivus rant, Henry still has a bone to pick with DeSantis; plus the Ad of the Week is back with Bernie Moreno's short but sweet Trump endorsement spot.
It's our last episode of the year. Before we head into 2024, Henry airs his grievances with the wannabe heavyweights of this cycle. From Joe Biden’s dismal performance, Ron DeSantis' inept campaign, the perpetually grumpy Freedom Caucus that can’t execute on squat, and ambitious progressive Democrats who lack the chutzpah to challenge their party’s unpopular leader: Mr. Olsen's got a lot of problems with these people!
He also chats with Monmouth University Polling Institute's Patrick Murray about the data on the electorate’s dissatisfaction and on parsing through a respondent’s tribal filter. And he welcomes the University of New Hampshire's Dante Scala back to cover the race between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, along with what the other candidates’ presence on the ballot could mean for the Granite State primary.
Merry Christmas, all. See you again in the election year!
While it would probably be unwise to bet on Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley winning the Republican nomination, Henry's back to remind you that it ain't impossible. This week's rant will get you up to speed on what to look out for.
David Wasserman joins to break down a number of key tossups in the House and Senate, and to discuss whether last midterm’s resurgence of emphasis on regional candidate quality will hold up in congressional races during this presidential cycle.
As promised, Beyond the Polls is back after just one week away! Henry sits down with RCP's Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende to discuss the scenarios in the Iowa Caucus that could leave a path for Donald Trump's many Republican challengers. Then he and AEI's Senior Fellow Emerita Karlyn Bowman consider whether and how an extremely unpopular Joe Biden can overcome his grim numbers and win in November.
And since it's the season for gifts, Henry has a rant and an ad of the week for you! Get his take on last week's much touted Red State Blue State Debate, along with a review of a puzzling and highly risky ad from the Trump campaign.
You’ve had your fill on turkey, now it’s time to get back to the races! In fact, we’re so eager to get back in that Beyond the Polls will be coming out weekly going forward.
This week Henry sits down with John Hood of the Pope Foundation for a tour of North Carolina, a state set for competetive elections for both GOP contenders and in the general. Then James Johnson, cofounder of JL Partners, takes us through his findings on an electorate which largely disapproves of the presidential rematch that’s likely to come in ’24.
And stay tuned for a jaunt around the Atlantic as Henry rants about the victorious Javier Milei and Geert Wilders, and what these smashing overseas elections mean for the USA.
We're hearing that voters prefer a "generic candidate." Today Henry and his polling buddies consider this ideal alongside the less popular incarnate candidates before us. Kristen Soltis Anderson covers interesting shifts in Trump voter demographics and the weak challenges by his primary opponents; Spencer Kimball joins to discuss Biden's waning support with key Democratic blocs and his trailing Republicans in swing states; and Craig Gilbert dives into one of the essential swing states, clueing us in on what to look for in the race for Wisconsin.
And stay tuned to the end for the first ever “Olsen Rants!” This time he freestyles on the GOP’s rough night on Tuesday. He'll set you straight on what happened in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and more. The good news? It ain't as bad as you think!
It's a triple state of play kind of day! Henry brings us along on a tour of key southern states. Rudy Bush of Texas breaks down Ted Cruz's fight with Colin Allred and Lone Star State's demographic changes. Then we move to pressing matters further East, where off year elections are underway. Al Cross takes us through the must-watch governor's race between Andy Beshear and Daniel Cameron in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; and J. Miles Coleman joins to pick apart campaigns in the political bellwether that is the Virginia General Assembly.
Plus Henry's Washington Post colleague Dan Balz assesses the fight between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis to be Donald Trump's final Republican challenger. And "Ad of the Week" returns with an introductory bio ad for prosecutor Bill Graham who hopes to be North Carolina's next governor.
While a Trump/Biden rematch is looking more likely every day, Henry returns with another merry band of politicos to discuss many of the remaining unknowns left in this '24 election cycle.
Charles Franklin (Director of the Marquette Law School Poll) provides a profile of the 1 in 5 Americans who make up the reluctant and "double doubter" categories; Matt Lewis of the Daily Beast breaks down a Republican Party in flux, and considers what consequences McCarthy's ouster will have; and Dennis Lennox is here to explain why the U.S. Virgin Islands — where he serves as the Executive Director of the territory's Republican Party —are much more than an ideal vacation spot; plus there's some talk about why rank choice voting might have a future.
Donald Trump looks like he’s running away with the GOP nomination, but several impressive opponents keep flailing away trying to catch him. Is this an exercise in futility or can one of them actually unseat him from his throne?
To discuss the complicated feat facing 2024 hopefuls, Henry welcomes RMG Research Founder and President Scott Rasmussen for the Polling Barometer; NBC’s National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki on the Republican Rumble; and Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston on all things “Silver State”.
And stay tuned til the end for Henry’s breakdown of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s well played ad attacking challenger Daniel Cameron’s position on abortion.
We all have a favorite dish at our favorite restaurant, and often enough we just can't help but to stick with it. Could this tendency explain the resounding lead Donald Trump enjoys in the Republican race? Are those 91 indictments resembling five star reviews to the GOP base, or are DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy simply unappetizing?
Today Henry sits down with FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Cook Political Report's Amy Walter to go over the menu. He and Geoff consider the Democrat's lack of alternatives to the underwhelming Joe Biden, along with the 'No Labels' third party push. Amy joins to discuss the GOP's race to second place and whether one of those candidates could go on to pull enough of the Republicans willing to be persuaded away from Trump.
Stay tuned to the end to hear Henry's breakdown of the NRSC's ad against Montana senator Jon Tester.
The GOP is one debate into the 2024 primary season, and many are eager to see how the winds have turned. Henry's back with another batch of polling savants to assess. Politico's Steven Shepard considers whether Hurricane Idalia's big splash in Florida's Big Bend will breathe some life into Ron DeSantis' campaign. Brianne Pfannenstiel of The Des Moines Register explains the Iowa caucus, and fills us in on the key lessons to take away from the showing in 2016. And Ramesh Ponnuru joins to discuss last week'sRepublican debate—which you may have noticed was missing its party's frontrunner. Henry also covers Team Biden's powerful "These Guys" ad.
All this and more awaits beyond the polls!
It’s early days in the fight for 2024, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that it's shaping up like 2016 where the election was decided by voters who disliked both major party nominees. Henry calls these folks "Double Doubters" and doubles down with his guests this week to see who they are and what they think.
Forecaster extraordinaire Harry Enten delivers insights that cut through post-2016 polling disillusionment; Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik has advice for Republican candidates who appear to be jostling for second place; and Post and Courier political editor Schuyler Kropf fills us in on the heretofore neglected heavyweight state, South Carolina.
Presidential election season is approaching. Thankfully Henry Olsen and his guests are back to provide detailed examination of the facts, figures, twists and turns that will whittle down today's crowded field. We'll be going beyond the polls!
Today we're hearing from Semafor's Dave Weigel to assess the Republican Rumble; we'll take a Democratic Deep Dive with Ruy Teixeira, politcal editor of The Liberal Patriot; AEI's Karlyn Bowman joins to guage the Polling Barometer; and Dante Scala, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, give us the State of Play for that oh-so-important primary battleground.
Join us as we go... Beyond the Polls!
Our crazy election season is nearly over, and Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman help us unpack the polls and discuss the future of a post-Trump Republican Party. Only on the Horse Race with Henry Olsen!
Source
Only ten days to go and about 1/3 of the ballots have already been cast. Can Donald Trump come from behind? Can the Republicans hold the Senate? Polling expert Karlyn Bowman and election analyst Jacob Rabushkin help us answer these questions. And a special guest appearance by the late Mao Tse Tung on the Ad of the Week – only on the Horse Race with Henry Olsen!
Source
President Trump has continued to drop in the polls and he’s spending his time in states he won handily four years ago. The Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman join the Horse Race this week to tell us what it all portends. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report also joined the podcast to run down the state of play in the U.S. House races.
Source
The race has entered its last full month with twists and turns galore. Karlyn Bowman sorts the polling out for us this week while the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert gives us the state of play in the key swing state of Wisconsin. All this and three ads of the week, only on The Horse Race with Henry Olsen!
Source
Will Tuesday’s disgusting debate shake up the presidential race? Election expert Ruy Teixeira joins the Horse Race to give his assessment. Arizona is perhaps the key battleground state, and the University of Arizona’s Samara Klar gives us the lowdown from the ground. Polling analyst Karlyn Bowman joins in the launch of our new regular feature, Poll Barometer, which looks at what the polls tell us...
Source
This week’s episode takes us into New York City for a look at two especially incisive ads that could only have come from the Big Apple. We also look at President Trump’s standing with white working-class voters and his general election prospects with the Economist’s D.C. Bureau Chief, James Astill. Listen today!
Source
Both parties have held their conventions and the mano-a-mano contest has started in earnest. The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter joins the Horse Race to tell us where the race stands and where it might go. This week also features an extended edition of Ad of the Week: we look at seven ads in three races to explore different techniques strategists use to communicate a message in the context of a...
Source
FDR’s first Vice President is quoted as saying the job was not worth a bucket of warm spit, although he actually used an earthier bodily fluid to describe the vice presidency. Will Sen. Kamala Harris agree if the Biden-Harris ticket wins? MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki joins The Horse Race to talk about Harris’ selection and give us his assessment on the state of the race. The Federalist’s Mollie...
Source
Control of the Senate is up for grabs; can Republicans hold on? Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales provides a comprehensive rundown of all the key races and where the overall picture stands on this week’s episode. Newsmax’s John Gizzi also talks about what it’s like to cover the Trump White House and where he think the president should go this month to recover his standing.
Source
The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted American politics, pushing campaigns to the sidelines and dealing a serious blow to President Trump’s re-election hopes. Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende has been following the spread of covid-19 in addition to his regular political analysis and joins us to explain what is really going on with covid and the presidential race. We’ll also run down the six...
Source
The polls show President Trump and the Republicans are looking at a November shellacking. Are they right? Political analyst Geoffrey Skelley from 538.com joins the Horse Race to give us his thought. He’s joined by University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray who will fill us in on how bad it could get in normally red Texas. All this and TWO Ads of the Week, only on the Horse Race!
Source
Every athlete no matter how excellent goes through extended down periods, slumps. President Trump’s poll ratings have been down for over two months now, whether they are measured by his job approval rating or his mead-to-head matchups with Joe Biden. Is this slump or a serious, perhaps permanent, downturn? The Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein and the Washington Examiner and New York Post’s Salena Zito...
Source
You know things are getting weird when the main topic in a presidential race is who’s wearing masks and when. This week’s guests – Robert Costa of The Washington Post and National Review’s Jim Geraghty – help us understand the logic underneath the craziness. We even unmask the reasoning behind a recent Democratic ad designed to help a Republican on Ad of the Week!
Source
With states beginning to reopen and politics beginning to heat up, it feels like we’re in the eye of the storm – past the covid-19 hammer and preparing for the election maelstrom to come. CNN political analyst Harry Enten joins the Horse Race to help us make sense of this moment, while White House correspondent Debra Saunders gives us a behind the scenes look at covering Trump during the pandemic.
Source
The Horse Race takes a close look at the May 12 special election in California’s 25th Congressional District with the National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar, while Ad of the Week walks through the series of ads both candidates in that race have aired, showing how a campaign strategy unfolds over the airwaves. We also talk with legendary psephologist Charlie Cook about the ins and outs of forecasting...
Source
The Horse Race explores the history of political analysis with one of its founders, Stuart Rothenberg, and asks Stu what he looks at to analyze a contest. We also talk with columnist and author E.J. Dionne about President Trump and Joe Biden’s chances to improve Democratic performance with white working class voters. Finally, Ad of the Week looks at a Republican candidate in Pennsylvania’s 8th...
Source
Joe Biden had his best fundraising month to date in March but still lags behind President Trump’s cash on hand by tens of millions. The Washington Post’s David Weigel tells us how much Trump’s fundraising advantage is helping his re-election bid. The Horse Race also traveled to the Keystone State to talk with political scientist Terry Madonna about Pennsylvania’s politics. All this and Ad of the...
Source
Martin Luther kicked off the Protestant Reformation with his immortal words, “here I stand; I can do no other.” President Trump earns praise and scorn for his similar attitude, and as a result has forced conservatives and Republicans to rethink their orthodoxies. Is a conservative reformation at hand? Noted author Yuval Levin joins the Horse Race to expand on that question...
Source
This week, Ben Domenech of the Federalist grades Trump’s response to the coronavirus while the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman explores what the polls say Americans think about the pandemic’s effects on their lives. J. Miles Coleman also dissects North Carolina’s political divisions. All this and an Ad of the Week that takes aim at China and the “Chinese Virus”!
Source
Elections are getting postponed, but that doesn’t mean politics is in lockdown. This week we look at the race for control of the U.S. House with the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman; talk about how the pandemic is affecting Trump’s re-election prospects with the Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik; and take another look at Wisconsin with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert.
Source
Coronavirus has affected The Horse Race – this is our first effort produced with everyone calling remotely using custom software. That might affect our audio quality, but it’s not impeding the quality of our commentary! Victor Davis Hanson, author of The Case for Trump, joins us this week to dissect how the president is handling these vexing times, while my Washington Post colleague Karen Tumulty...
Source
Biden’s up, the market’s down, and all is definitely not well in America. This week’s podcast looks forward to November’s general election to discuss what this all means for the President as he grapples with a crisis of immense proportion with The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter and National Review’s Rich Lowry. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein joins the show to talk about how...
Source
The political force of nature that is Joe Biden hit land again Tuesday, and with six wins in seven states he effectively clinched the Democratic nomination. This week’s Horse Race look at two states that look likely to continue Joe’s winning streak next Tuesday, Ohio and Florida, with the Columbus Dispatch’s Darrel Rowland and POLITICO’s Marc Caputo. We also look ahead to the general election and...
Source
Joe Biden’s stunning political resurrection is the main topic on this week’s podcast. Daily Beast columnist and CNN contributor Matt Lewis joins Henry to go over the turn of events, while Detroit Free Press correspondent Todd Spangler dissects next week’s crucial Michigan primary. All this plus American Greatness publisher Chris Buskirk to talk Trump and a new Ad of the Week, only on the Horse...
Source
The Democratic race is heating up as Biden, Bernie, and Bloomberg start to start to jump out from the pack going into Super Tuesday. We look at the biggest states voting that day, California and Texas, with iconic Democratic strategist Bob Shrum and Houston Chronicle columnist Erica Grieder; take in a view from flyover country with political reporter Salena Zito; and talk Trump with EPPC Senior...
Source