Predicting the outcomes

Want to share feedback about the podcast? It would be much appreciated. 3 min survey here: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/N72QP67

Before you can decide which option to take, you need to deal with the uncertainty surrounding each of them.

Unknowns can be categorised into 3 types: 1. Knowable unknowns - these are things you could know about but don’t. Hopefully you’ll have reduced these as much as you can by widening and diversifying your advisor group. 2. Inaccessible unknowns - these are things you’d know if you could get access them. For example, things a foe or a competitor might know - you can’t ask them because you’re competing with them. 3. Unknowable unknowns - these are things that are simply impossible to predict and which you just have to embrace.

There is a strong correlation between astute decision making and the willingness to embrace uncertainty and accept it as a given.

Your task for today is to try and adopt a humble mindset where you recognise that you can’t guarantee you know everything and embrace that. Then spend 5-10 minutes predicting the outcomes of your different options: - What are their known implications, both direct and indirect? - What are the upsides? - What risks are there and what are their likelihoods of occurring?