- Forecasting resources
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (book) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (amazon goodreads)
- The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't (book) by Nate Silver (amazon goodreads)
- How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (book) by Douglas Hubbard (amazon goodreads)
- Planning Fallacy (article) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Discusses Inside/Outside view as well.
- Self calibration
- Prediction Book
- AirTable calibration template by Ben Pence
- Notion.so calibration template by Ben Pence
- Credence Calibration Game by Alexei Andreev, Zachary Alethia, and Andrew Critch
- Decision Journal (more qualitative)
- Prediction Markets
- Augur
- PredictIt
- InTrade (inactive)
- Prediction Markets (article) by Gwern
- Music
- Intro music: Vlog Music Cafe Type Hip-Hop Instrumental Chill Lo-Fi Beat by Oliwia Orłowska
- Outro music: Game Over [Super Mario World Lofi/hiphop remix] by Neighborhood Vandal
- Transcript available at https://benpence.com/podcast/forecasting
