The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast: Recent Episodes
Fraser of Allander Institute
The latest on the Scottish and UK economy from a leading independent economic research institute based in the University of Strathclyde.
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph (Economist, FAI)
Prof Mairi Spowage (Director, FAI)
Jack Evans (Senior Policy Advisor, JRF)
Time stamps
(0:22) Who wants to work across Scotland
(3:24) Child poverty and supporting parents into work
(8:09) Why focus on "people who want to work"?
(13:29) How we talk about labour market status
(19:26) Surveys and other sources of labour market information
(26:55) What's next?
00:00:08 – 00:00:35
Introduction to podcast, guests, and research topic (community supervision & re-offending).
00:00:35 – 00:01:24
Overview of pressures on the criminal justice system: court backlogs and causes.
00:01:24 – 00:02:20
Prison overcrowding explained and current capacity issues.
00:02:20 – 00:03:14
Early release schemes and their limited long-term impact on prison population.
00:03:14 – 00:04:00
Future outlook and policy pressure (Institute for Government concerns).
00:03:36 – 00:04:27
New sentencing bill: shift toward community supervision and reduced prison time.
00:04:27 – 00:05:22
Lack of evidence on effectiveness of community supervision and motivation for study.
00:05:22 – 00:06:28
Data challenges and introduction to MoJ “Data First” initiative and linked datasets.
00:06:28 – 00:07:02
Scale and capability of the linked offender dataset.
00:07:02 – 00:08:25
Why older data is used and need for causal evidence (bias in simple comparisons).
00:08:25 – 00:10:20
Explanation of natural experiments vs randomized experiments.
00:10:20 – 00:11:13
Introduction to the 2015 Offender Rehabilitation Act (ORA).
00:11:13 – 00:13:02
Natural experiment setup: cutoff date creates comparable supervised vs unsupervised groups.
00:13:02 – 00:14:21
Method: comparing re-offending outcomes across groups using linked data.
00:14:21 – 00:15:46
What community supervision involves (probation, restrictions, rehabilitation focus).
00:16:02 – 00:17:09
Main findings: supervision reduces re-offending (short-term impact).
00:17:09 – 00:17:30
Long-term effects: persistent reduction in re-offending even after supervision ends.
00:17:30 – 00:18:44
Who benefits most: stronger effects for first-time prisoners.
00:18:44 – 00:19:27
Why effects fade over time and importance of supervision duration.
00:19:27 – 00:21:00
Effects for repeat/prolific offenders and role of recall to prison (incapacitation effect).
00:21:00 – 00:22:18
Behavioural mechanisms and role of recall threat.
00:22:18 – 00:23:34
Context: high baseline re-offending rates; supervision helps but isn’t a silver bullet.
00:23:34 – 00:25:37
Policy implications: supervision vs prison and impact on overcrowding.
00:25:37 – 00:26:05
Long-term benefits via preventing repeat offending among first-timers.
00:26:05 – 00:27:37
Where to find research outputs (ADR UK, blog, dashboard).
In the final episode of our election analysis series, Mairi Spowage and João Sousa of the Fraser of Allander Institute and Ed Poole and Guto Ifan of the Wales Governance Centre come together to discuss what the results of the elections in Wales and Scotland mean for governing arrangements, and what the next steps are in the Senedd and Scottish Parliament sessions.This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org.The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.
Please note that this recording is in Welsh - check out our other podcast episodes and our websites for analysis in English.This is a recording of the event held by the Wales Governance Centre in Bangor on 21 April, discussing the main talking points in the Senedd election.This work is supported by the Nuffield Foundation. The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance social well-being. It funds and undertakes rigorous research, encourages innovation and supports the use of sound evidence to inform social and economic policy, and improve people’s lives. The Nuffield Foundation is the founder and co-funder of the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, the Ada Lovelace Institute and the Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. Find out more at: nuffieldfoundation.org.The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation.
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(1:14) Income tax proposals
(6:21) Land transaction tax
(9:12) Spending proposals on childcare
(12:36) Costings of proposals
(18:00) Crown Estate devolution
(21:43) Social security devolution
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(1:18) Rows about costings publications in Wales
(6:06) Costings publications in Scotland
(9:56) The effect of List PR on the manifesto contents
(14:30) Current vs capital block grants
(16:52) What we can expect in the coming week
Timestamps:
(0:06) Introductions
(1:57) Health's place in the Welsh Government's budget
(5:48) Performance of the Welsh NHS
(10:51) Productivity challenges
(15:31) The challenges of moving to a prevention model
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(0:46) The level of detail of the manifestos
(9:47) Costings in the manifestos
(16:44) The SNP's food price cap
(18:39) Reform's plan to bring in half a million people into the labour market
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(1:20) Reflections from the event in Bangor
(2:49) Reflections from the event in Edinburgh
(5:31) Mutual investment model and proposals in Wales
(8:09) Fiscal framework
(13:27) Appetite for further devolution of income tax in Wales
(17:19) Council tax revaluation
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(1:55) Tuition fees and the higher education funding landscape in Scotland
(11:59) The future sustainability of Scotland's universities
(14:29) Further education funding in Scotland
Timestamps
(0:05) Introductions
(0:42) Health spending over the last Scottish Parliament term
(7:59) The increase in procurement spending
(11:12) Parties' proposals for health
(19:31) The National Care Service bill
(25:42) Parties' proposals for adult social care
(00:00) Welcome and episode overview
(01:02) Meet Ed Roddis and Lesley Smillie
(03:44) What is the State of the State report?
(10:11) The big takeaway for Scotland in an election year
(11:32) Public priorities: cost of living, healthcare and immigration
(18:44) How Scotland compares with the rest of the UK
(21:06) Public satisfaction with services and pressure on the NHS
(29:14) The mood among public sector leaders
(36:19) Is there a real opportunity for public service reform?
(38:04) AI, digital transformation and the future of public services
Timestamps
(0:06) Introductions
(1:27) The SNP price cap plan for 'essential' foods
(5:28) The campaign in Wales this week and the Welsh Lib Dems manifesto
(7:07) Tax policy and unwillingness to confront fiscal trade-offs
(11:20) The remaining Scottish manifestos from the week
(15:13) What's been left unsaid
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(1:25) Scotland's child poverty targets
(5:15) Devolved and reserved social security systems
(8:32) Child poverty delivery plan
(13:00) Scottish Child Payment
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introduction and the overall funding challenge
(3:30) The wider role of universities in local economies
(6:33) International students
(9:49) Difference in funding between Wales and the rest of the UK
(19:44) Proposals from the different parties so far
Timestamps
(0:06) Introductions
(1:00) Welsh developments: Plaid Cymru and Welsh Green Party manifestos
(2:26) Childcare proposals in Wales
(8:49) Scottish developments: Scottish Conservatives manifesto
(17:16) Efficiency proposals in Scotland
Timestamps
(00:05) Introduction and the current state of childcare policy in Wales
(4:14) Why the government intervenes in this area
(7:53) Differences between Welsh provision with the rest of the UK
(14:41) Trade-offs between universal and more targeted approaches
(19:04) The effect of policy objectives on childcare policy design
Participants
Prof Stephen Sinclair, GCU & SPIRU
Hannah Randolph, FAI
Spencer Thompson, FAI
Time stamps
(1:10) Latest child poverty statistics
(4:45) Changes to the Family Resources Survey
(12:00) Final child poverty delivery plan
(16:10) Child poverty targets
(23:20) More on data revisions
(25:30) Scale of actions in the delivery plan and distance to the 2030 targets
(30:15) A time for optimism
Timestamps:
(0:06) Evolution of funding during the last Parliamentary term
(7:13) Income tax policy and divergence from the rest of the UK
(13:39) Public sector pay and pressure on the Scottish Budget
Timestamps:
(0:05) Introductions
(1:00) The Welsh Government's funding landscape in the last few years and the Barnett formula.
(5:31) Claims about the "largest ever settlement" and how meaningful those are
(12:09) Differences in funding between Wales and England
Timestamps
(00:07) Introductions
(00:40) The project and why we are doing it
(03:35) Highlights from the Welsh setting the scene report
(05:55) Similarities and differences relative to Scotland
(10:44) Issues in the campaign in Scotland: taxes, health service
(12:05) Comparison with issues in Wales
(14:33) Public sector pay and efficiency
(16:58) Capital spending outlook
Participants
Hannah Randolph - Fellow, FAI
Allison Catalano - Fellow, FAI & SHERU
Spencer Thompson - Senior Fellow, FAI & SHERU
Time stamps
(0:25) What is No One Left Behind and how is it structured?
(4:10) Localised services and decision-making
(9:10) Outcomes and prevention under No One Left Behind
(18:45) Prioritisation
(22:15) Data and evaluation
This episode is the latest in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.
(00:00) Welcome and episode overview
(00:57) Meet Paul Lawrence and Phil Cragg
(06:20) Why Edinburgh matters to Scotland’s economy
(11:42) Edinburgh’s regional economy and city region approach
(14:09) The constraints on growth: housing, affordability and space
(17:46) Why Edinburgh stands out as an AI city
(20:47) AI opportunity and labour market risk
(28:07) Can AI improve public services?
(38:39) Universities, talent and Edinburgh’s innovation ecosystem
This episode is the latest in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. This collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.
(00:00) Cyber + AI: why this matters now (Cyber Scotland Week)
(01:12) Meet the guests: Deloitte + ScotlandIS / Cyber Scotland Partnership
(01:51) What “cyber resilience” really means (it’s not just IT)
(04:07) Scotland’s cyber ecosystem: what ScotlandIS + the Partnership do
(07:03) Cyber careers: the roles people don’t realise exist
(09:11) Scotland’s cyber skills gap (and why it’s still here)
(14:06) AI in cyber: big benefits, new risks, and trust issues
(19:02) AI adoption 101: start with the problem (not the hype)
(30:41) Building the talent pipeline: schools, placements & real pathways in
(41:05) The future: new roles, diversity, and what needs to change next
(00:00) - Welcome + what we’re covering (survey + energy transition investment)
(04:20) - SNIB explained: mission-led impact investing + how they operate
(09:47) - Survey headlines: opportunity vs uncertainty (2030/2050 confidence gap)
(12:27) - Risk, returns, and what’s investable (mature tech, “comparable returns”)
(17:44) - What’s blocking progress: grid, planning/consenting, enabling infrastructure
(28:30) - Scotland context + role of public capital (reserved powers, NWF/GB Energy, crowding-in)
(40:31) - Momentum signals + what needs to happen next
(47:42) - Closing + wrap-up and links
Timestamps
(0:30) Overview of the Scottish budget
(5:02) Fiscal sustainability
(10:28) Clarity of planned transfers between portfolios
(14:00) Future spending plans
(00:00) - Introduction
(03:22) - Rationale for the Policy
(04:40) - Glasgow City Council's Evidence
(06:45) - Emissions & Air Quality
(10:23) - Piecemeal Approach to Implementation
(11:37) - Concerns of Businesses & Residents
(16:19) - Using Revenue Raised
Timestamps:
0:30 Budget expectations, OBR leak, and response
4:29 Lifting of the two-child limit on the child element of Universal Credit
10:23 Clearing confusion around child benefit, two-child limit, and the benefit cap
14:01 Freezing tax thresholds
19:25 Smorgasbord of smaller taxes
28:26 Spencer reflects on his first Budget with the FAI
This episode explores whether the energy sector – and particularly the North East of Scotland – is at a genuine turning point. The conversation looks at how a “just transition” could play out for workers and supply chains as the North Sea continues to decline, and how policy choices over the next five to seven years could mean either many more jobs in offshore energy or a sharp loss of capacity and capability. The guests unpack the idea of an “energy workforce”, not tied to a single fuel, and discuss how companies are increasingly global, chasing projects and moving people across borders while trying to stay agile in a volatile market.
Alongside that, they dig into the UK’s shifting tax regime in the North Sea, the impact of the windfall levy, the challenges of the current investment climate, and the added frictions from employment law changes and immigration policy. New modelling shows that the pace of decline in oil and gas could have material economic impacts, especially for Scotland and the North East, where offshore activity underpins a large share of jobs and GVA. Despite the risks and recent redundancies, the tone ends up cautiously optimistic: with clearer policy, better signalling from government and the right incentives, the UK still has the chance to turn its existing strengths – workforce, supply chain and North Sea assets – into a world-class, net zero-focused energy powerhouse.
This episode is the fifth in a series partnering Deloitte with the Fraser of Allander Institute. In this series expect lively debate, expert insights, and thought-provoking discussions that will reshape the conversation around Scottish economic growth. Culminating in a landmark event in March 2026, this collaboration will unveil ground-breaking insights and provide a platform for action. This Scottish-focused initiative builds upon Deloitte’s UK-wide Growth 35 programme, painting a bold vision for a thriving UK economy by 2035.
Timestamps
(00:00) - (04:30) - Welcome, context & guest introductions
(04:30) - (12:30) - Is the energy sector at a turning point? – “Striking the Balance”
(12:30) - (21:00) - From oil & gas to an “energy workforce” and a global supply chain
(21:00) - (31:30) - Investment climate and the North Sea fiscal regime
(31:30) - (38:00) - Employment rights, immigration policy and agility
(38:00) - (42:00) - Economic modelling: managed vs accelerated decline
(42:00) - (45:41) - Lessons from 2015, current mood & reasons for optimism
The full transcript is available here.
(06:25) Setting the Scene: Sector Snapshot & Data Challenges - Opening context, series aims, and the recurring measurement/data issues in the sector.
(11:43) — Jobs & Output: 47k Roles and £15.5bn Activity -Headline figures and what they signal about deployment and momentum.
(17:02) — Beyond Either/Or: Oil & Gas and Renewables Together - Why “one rises as the other falls” is a false dichotomy; the supply-chain reality.
(22:20) — Grid, Supply Chain & Investor Confidence - Electrification, grid buildout, portfolio procurement, and the need to secure volume.(27:39) — Communities & Skills: Place-Based Opportunities - Thriving industries mean thriving communities; skills pathways and careers.
(32:57) — Regional Tour: Inverness, Ardrishaig & the ‘Electric Highway’ -Examples of local investments and EV-enabled connectivity.
(38:15) — Shetland & Viking Wind: Community Stakes and Lessons -Decarbonisation at Sullom Voe and community participation challenges around Viking.
(48:52) — Reality Check Since 2022: Costs, Pace and What’s Next - How rising input costs and programme pace shape near-term priorities and delivery.
In the final episode of our Key Figures series Mairi Spowage speaks to Professor in Economics at the Adam Smith Business School, and previous director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, Graeme Roy.
Our next episode of Key Figures features the esteemed David Bell, Professor of Economics at the University of Stirling and a core original member of the Fraser of Allander Institute.
In the third installment of our Key Figures series, Mairi Spowage speaks to Kim Swales and Peter McGregor: two economists who were director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at various times, and instrumental to our longstanding work in CG modelling.
In the second episode of our Key Figures interview series, we talk to Elizabeth Ashcroft, one of the original editors of our long-running Economic Commentaries. We cover her life, the origins of the Institute, and her thoughts on the rapidly changing economic landscape in Scotland.
Clarification 15/9/25 - Victor Bulmer-Thomas did not resign as Director of Chatham House in 2003 over the Iraq war. He left at the end of 2006, although he did author a paper on Blair's foreign policy that was very critical of the invasion.
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute
Dr João Sousa - Deputy Director at the Fraser of Allander Institute
Time stamps
(0:40) What pressures does the chancellor face ahead of the autumn budget statement?
(8:30) Prospects for improved economic conditions
(11:00) Potential policy changes in the Autumn Budget statement
(17:00) Impact on the Scottish budget process
(00:25) Price changes after removal
(01:37) Reasoning behind peak fares and removal
(03:23) Learning from the peak fares removal pilot
(06:00) What policies might shift commuters away from cars?
(08:47) Alternatives to rail travel
(10:57) Policy costs and potential for financial neutrality
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute
Allison Catalano - Fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute and the Scottish Health Equity Research Unit (SHERU)
Time stamps
(00:06) Introduction
(01:20) What is the LFS and what are the issues it's been having?
(6:57) Alternative data sources for understanding the labour market
(18:23) Misunderstandings around what's happened in the post-pandemic labour market
(19:39) ONS changes to improve the quality of the LFS
(23:40) How poor employment statistics may impact local decision-making
(27:49) Information about FAI 50th anniversary conference
(00:29) What is GERS and why is it important?
(10:19) What do the latest figures tell us and what factors are driving changes?
(14:23) What were our thoughts on the Scottish Government response?
(25:51) How likely is GERS to feature in the upcoming general election?
04:27 - What does the UK innovation survey say about innovation in Scotland?
07:10 - Is there really a decline in innovation across Scotland?
12:00 - Is business investment in Scotland really less than rest of UK?
15:44 - Product innovation versus process innovation
21:00 - How do skills shortages affect innovation?
24: 00 - How does company size affect innovation?
27:04 - How can businesses collaborate with universities to address skills development?
29:00 - Where is the policy environment in Scotland when it comes to innovation?
(00:38) What is the Scottish Business Monitor?
(02:44) What business types are represented and what is the sample size?
(04:28) Has poor business sentiment from Q1 2025 recovered in Q2?
(06:50) What changes have we seen based on the changes to employer national insurance contributions?
(08:37) What does business sentiment look like for 2026?
(11:26) What factors are contributing to current business sentiment?
Timestamps
(00:23) What is congestion charging?
(02:59) Exemptions
(04:49) Similarities with LEZs
(07:10) Timing of charges
(10:26) Use of discounts & revenue
(14:54) Clyde Tunnel Toll
(16:26) Edinburgh’s failed proposal
(20:13) Other UK charges
(21:43) Effectiveness of congestion charges
(23:37) Glasgow’s public transport system
(25:57) Public attitudes
Timestamps:
(01:55) The Social Policy Association (SPA) and the East Asian Social Policy Research Network (EASP)
(04:15) The Hospitality Sector – Serving the Future Project
(07:30) Learning Disabilities & Employment
(10:30) Child Poverty
(14:40) Housing & Health
(19:10) Labour One Year in Office: Tax Policy & Wealth Taxes?
(24:30) Key Takeaways from the Conference
Yesterday, the Scottish Government published their medium-term financial strategy, which kicks off the Scottish Budget process. Hannah Randolph is joined by FAI Director Mairi Spowage to share their reactions. (2:08) What does the medium-term financial strategy do?(8:47) Financial strategy across spending areas(18:04) Public sector reform(25:06) Looking ahead to the Scottish spending review
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:20) History of the FAI
(5:30) FAI conference plans
(10:15) Parliamentary reception plans
(11:40) Where to find more information about the FAI 50th
Introduction
What are investors saying? 03:43
Why is policy certainty so important? 10:27
Energy companies versus energy investors: 13:05
Where should government focus on? 17:52
Why the grid is so important? 24:42
Importance of effective carbon pricing regime: 31:04
Policy Responses from UK and Scottish Government: 42:11
PARTICIPANTS
Ben Cooper, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Joao Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIMESTAMPS
(00:30) A summary of the spending review announcements
(08:00) What did we hear on capital investment?
(11:50) What were the announcements on day-to-day expenditure?
(21:14) What are the implications on Scotland from the spending review?
(26:50) What has changed for the Medium Term Financial Strategy?
(35:30) How important is the spending review going forward?
Timestamps:
(0:00) Introduction
(00:38) What do the latest child poverty statistics say?
(01:49) What was JRF's reaction to the stats?
(03:09) Can we see an impact from Scottish Child Payment?
(06:09) How do we achieve the 2030 targets from here?
(09:24) Modelling of options to meet 2030 targets
(12:57) What about cost?
(19:27) How might UK Government proposed benefits changes impact poverty levels?
(23:30) How will the changes impact Scotland's finances?
(25:41) What happens in Scotland if the work capability assessment is replaced by the PIP assessment?
(28:20) What's next for child poverty analysis at the FAI and JRF?
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:30) Economic conditions leading up to the spring statement
(16:15) What announcements were made and how do they affect Scotland?
(21:10) OBR estimates for policy costs and savings
(30:25) What fiscal policy changes might we expect later this year?
(37:40) What are the UK's prospects for growth?
PARTICIPANTS
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Angela Mitchell, Senior Partner for Scotland & Northern Ireland, Deloitte
Lesley McEwan, Director in Deloitte's Infrastructure and Capital Programme Team, Deloitte
TIMESTAMPS
(10:50 ) What purposes could public land be put to?
(14:10) Taking the demand to the supply – data centres
(15:40) Grid infrastructure issues must still be tackled
(16:40) Digital opportunities
(19:23) Threats and opportunities from AI, including smart cities
(22:28) What can Scotland learn from other cities around the world
(24:30) A key role for research and academia
(25:23) Power hungry AI
(26:50) Use of digital and AI for public service reform
(29:57) Civil service efficiency
(31:50) Economic impact of these opportunities, including employment
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:25) What is the Barnett formula and what does it do?
(2:50) What came before the Barnett formula and how was it different?
(9:25) Has the Barnett formula resulted in convergence on spending per person across the UK nations?
(12:40) Limits set by the Barnett formula and their impact on spending options for devolved governments
(16:50) Governance framework - can devolved governments challenge decisions made on the Barnett formula?
(22:25) Potential options for changing the Barnett formula and framework
Scottish Health Equity Research Unit Website
Scottish Health Equity Research Unit BlueSky
(0:34) Introduction
(01:15) Origins of SHERU
(04:42) Historical context of health inequalities research
(8:40) Impact and Implementation
(16:50) Interactions between Policy and Research
(20:42) Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches
(27:36) Goals and Aims of SHERU
Intro/Outro by Ian Macartney
PARTICIPANTS
Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Jack Williamson. Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIMESTAMPS
(00:3o) BOE: interest rates and the outlook for growth
(07:00) Budget process and developments
(10:20) Two child limit mitigation
(16:45) Q4 2024 Scottish Business Monitor
(20:10) Upcoming fiscal events and releases
Timestamps
(00:36) Inflation data and MPC expectations
(07:45) GDP growth
(11:00) Scottish Budget Report developments
(20:08) Other fiscal news in 2025
(22:01) Allison and Mairi discuss air quality research
(26:20) Hannah and Mairi discuss the Scottish Child Payment and foodbank usage
(31:45) Ben and Mairi discuss Economic Futures
(35:40) Live! Scottish GDP data comes out during the podcast
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:21) Summary of main announcements
(1:37) Mitigation of the two-child limit
(3:42) What has happened with the budget for housing?
(5:15) Hospitality relief - similar to relief in England & Wales?
(8:30) Implications of omitting employer NICs from forecasts on public sector pay
(13:43) Income tax and what the SFC forecasts tell us about future years
(19:22) Further analysis - what to look out for
FAI economist Hannah Randolph is joined by Luke Michaelides and Phil Gooding from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Consumer Prices team to talk about inflation statistics. We cover what measures of inflation are produced by ONS, how they differ, and recent developments in methodology and the data underlying the statistics. We end by discussing how inflation rates impact households and businesses.
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Luke Michaelides, Branch Head, Consumer Prices Development and Subgroup Production, ONS
Phil Gooding, Statistician, Consumer Prices Inflation, ONS
Time stamps
(1:00) What are the different measures of inflation produced by ONS? How do they differ?
(2:25) What are the Household Costs Indices and what do they say about how inflation affects different groups?
(5:25) What types of data are used to produce these inflation measures?
(7:20) How have the methods of collecting data for and calculating inflation changed?
(10:20) What do changes in the inflation rate mean for households and businesses? What should people keep in mind when they hear about inflation on the news?
(0:00) - Introducing the GEMINOA project - background and context
(1:16) - Key findings:
- Glasgow's 46% emissions reduction
- National grid decarbonisation impact
- Sector-by-sector breakdown
(3:32) - Local policy measurement challenges:
(7:30) - Economic implications:
(11:00) - Future outlook:
- GEMINOA project developments
- Policy implications
- Upcoming research
In our 100th podcast episode, FAI Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join economist Hannah Randolph to discuss what was announced in the UK budget statement and how it will affect Scotland. We also talk about whether OBR publications alongside the budget shed more light on the budgetary "black hole" left by the previous government, and whether or not this budget signals a significant change in UK fiscal policy.
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) How will the tax decisions taken in yesterday's budget affect people in Scotland?
(9:10) How might the announcements yesterday influence the Scottish budget in December?
(17:30) What has changed about the fiscal rules and what impact has it had?
(29:50) Does this budget signal a change in the direction of UK fiscal policy?
Deputy Director João Sousa joins FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss our expectations for the budget statement on Wednesday as well as what we can learn from past chancellors' first budgets and the role of the OBR in the budget process.
To read more about past chancellors' first budgets, check out the details here: https://fraserofallander.org/publications/uk-budget-preview-3-first-budgets-of-post-war-chancellors/
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) What do other chancellors' first budgets tell us about what to expect in Rachel Reeves' first budget statement?
(6:00) What historical budgets happened in similar conditions to the present and what can we learn from them?
(10:24) How has the role of the OBR in the budget process changed over time?
(17:20) What do we expect in the budget statement on Wednesday?
In this episode, Brodie Gillan is joined by Chirsty McFadyen, and Laura Robertson, who is a Research Manager at the Poverty Alliance. Brodie, Chirsty, and Laura discuss the Serving the Future project in the context of Challenge Poverty Week.
Serving the Future is a three-year action research project working with hospitality employers and workers funded by the Robertson Trust. The project is seeking to understand, reduce and prevent in-work poverty and identify changes that could be made within the hospitality sector.
You can find out more about Serving the Future here: https://www.servingthefuture.scot/
You can learn more about the Poverty Alliance & Challenge Poverty Week here: https://www.povertyalliance.org/
Participants
Brodie Gillan, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Chirsty McFadyen, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Laura Robertson, Research Manager, Poverty Alliance
Timestamps
(00:47) What is Serving the Future?
(03:06) What is Challenge Poverty Week and how does it relate to Serving the Future?
(05:20) Why did we focus on the hospitality sector for this project?
(07:20) What are the main challenges facing low-paid workers in the hospitality sector?
(15:55) What conversations have we had with hospitality employers throughout the project?
(22:31) What can listeners learn about in-work poverty?
(27:02) What’s next for Serving the Future?
(00:35) Mairi discusses the headlines from our commentary publication, covering the main indicators of economic conditions
(03:55) Douglas reflects on whether this chimes with the experience he is having with clients
(07:12) Mairi, Joao and Douglas discuss the latest data on Scottish Income Tax, and our old friend fiscal drag
(15:03) Mairi and Joao discuss our analysis of fiscal black holes
(21:33) We all speculate about the UK Budget on 30th October, focussing on the implications if capital gains tax features in the changes the Chancellor is likely to make.
(30:30) Mairi discusses some of our analysis on the Scottish Public sector.
Episode Notes
In this episode, Hannah Randolph is joined by Chirsty McFadyen who leads on our learning disabilities employment research. Hannah and Chirsty discuss the Equality Act and its implementation issues, as well as some of our latest findings from speaking to employers.
We are also joined by Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive at Young Enterprise Scotland, who discussed his neurodivergent condition and how language has impacted his experiences of employment.
Learning disabilities research by the Fraser of Allander Institute can be found at the following link: https://fraserofallander.org/research/adults-with-learning-disabilities-in-scotland/
Our report prepared for the Scottish Parliament on the disability employment gap can be found at: https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2024/1/12/434f4dc4-caa1-4971-b5f3-7699e70ec1ff
Participants
Chirsty McFadyen, Economics Associate, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Liam Brown, Entrepreneurial Executive, Young Enterprise Scotland
Timestamps
(0:00) Introduction
(00:14) What is the equality act and how does it define disability?
(02:04) What was the reason for having the legislation?
(03:46) What have been some of the issues with it?
Interview with Liam Brown (06:45)
(14:26) Learning disabilities and employers research findings
(24:14) What advice works for employers hiring people with learning disabilities?
Institute Deputy Director Emma Congreve is joined by fellow Deputy Director Joao Sousa and Director Professor Mairi Spowage to discuss all the fiscal announcements over the last month and what they mean for Scotland.
Director Mairi Spowage and Deputy Director João Sousa join FAI economist Hannah Randolph to discuss GERS statistics for 2023-24, including the net fiscal balance, details of changes in revenues and spending, how Scotland compares to other UK nations and regions, and what it all means for the independence debate.
GERS 2023-24 can be found on the Scottish Government website at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2023-24/
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economics Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) What is GERS and what do the statistics show this year?
(3:40) Why are there versions with and without North Sea revenues?
(8:55) How do these figures compare to previous years?
(10:45) How do these figures compare across UK regions and nations?
(15:20) More on revenue and spending - income tax, pension, social protection, and locally administered taxes
(23:55) What implications does GERS have for the independence debate?
FAI Deputy Director João Sousa is joined by OBR Deputy Chief of Staff Laura Gardiner to discuss the OBR's recent work on the drivers of the growing gap in income tax paid per person in Scotland relative to the UK average.
Find the OBR's working paper on devolved income tax at: https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/forecast-methodology/#working
More OBR analysis and devolved forecasts are available at: https://obr.uk/topics/scotland-wales-and-northern-ireland/
Timestamps:
(00:45) The OBR's role in forecasting Scottish taxes
(06:00) The main drivers of differences in income tax per person paid between Scotland and the UK as a whole
(09:40) Employment income differences and underlying drivers
(19:30) Sectoral decomposition
(21:10) The effect of progressive taxation on income tax revenues and how it differs across the UK
(24:20) The effect of the income distribution on the results
(28:20) The effect of Scottish income tax policy
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Economic Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Rebecca Kay, Senior Researcher, Migration Policy Scotland
Time stamps
(0:20) Context: Immigration trends in Scotland
(1:40) What are current attitudes towards immigration like in Scotland?
(6:45) What views do people have on the contribution of immigrants to Scotland?
(14:45) What might change about the UK government's approach to immigration policy?
(20:40) Finances, employability, and poverty of immigrant households in Scotland
(27:35) What approaches might improve access to services for migrants?
Participants
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Emma Congreve, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Time stamps
(0:20) New cabinet and expectations for a fiscal event
(6:00) What changes might Labour make to workers' rights and employment law?
(10:55) A Universal credit review and the potential for change to the two-child limit and local housing allowance
(18:20) Will we see a push for social care reform, and what does it mean for Scotland ?
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(00:40) Main policy areas in the party manifestos
(02:00) Devolution, devolved issues, and funding
(06:00) Social security
(08:40) Q&A: What would an increase in Housing Benefit in Scotland mean for Scottish taxpayers?
(12:35) Q&A: Is there scope to implement an Essentials Guarantee?
(15:20) Q&A: Are there any plans to reform the Work Capability Assessment?
(17:50) Q&A: Are there prospects for Levelling Up or City Deals funding to come to Scotland?
(21:00) Immigration
(23:50) Energy transition
(25:50) What have the parties said about how they will fund and implement their manifesto commitments?
(33:00) Economic strategy
(35:00) Tax policy and costings in the party manifestos
(41:00) Is cracking down on tax compliance a feasible way to raise revenues?
(45:15) Q&A: Should UK parties have access to independently estimated costings for manifesto commitments?
(48:35) Q&A: Are the economy and living standards set to improve before 2026?
(58:55) Q&A: What are the main challenges facing the next UK government?
(1:03:00) Q&A: Will the new government stick to their tax and spending commitments?
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:20) Are plans to increase tax compliance credible?
(10:10) Can the UK government raise the global minimum tax on corporations?
(11:40) More on tax: Reform's costings & Alba's plan to halve VAT (temporarily?)
(16:50) Is the UK State Pension low compared to other countries?
(21:50) What's next in FAI General Election coverage
PARTICIPANTS
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
TIME STAMPS
(0:20) Fiscal headroom, economic growth, and the role of the OBR forecasts
(15:55) Can the new government borrow to invest?
(24:58) Tax proposals in party manifestos
(34:02) What's next in the FAI General Election coverage
Participants:
Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(0:20) New inflation numbers and BoE interest rate decision
(8:40) Manifesto update: SNP, Scottish Labour, and Scottish Greens
(11:30) Fact-check: £4,800 additional on mortgage payments if the Conservatives win?
(17:20) Fact-check: Have Scottish productivity and GDP per head grown faster than the rest of the UK?
(27:40) Fiscal rules and borrowing to invest
(29:45) What to look out for in FAI coverage of the General Election next week
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Dr João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(0:20) Are the parties' costings and funding plans for their commitments believable?
(09:50) Additional staff and workforce commitments - HMRC, education, and the NHS
(15:40) What's next in the FAI General Election coverage
Correction: When we recorded the podcast, we expected the Scottish Labour manifesto next Monday, but it's actually out today. Stay tuned for more manifesto analysis later this week!
Participants
- Ben Cooper. Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps
(00:51) Initial reactions to the manifestos published this week
(18:35) Our Health and Social Care Briefing Paper
(25:55) What's to come this week
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:20) £2k rise in taxes per household to fund Labour's commitments?
(12:30) Council Tax reform and capital gains tax
(22:00) Child Benefit charge threshold
(30:00) FAI General Election coverage and events to look forward to
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(0:30) First GE debate in Scotland
(8:50) Immigration announcements
(19:00) Personal care reform
(24:10) What's next: FAI General Election publications and events
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:45) Commitments on tax so far
(08:30) NHS funding, GB Energy, and how commitments are funded
(21:30) How campaigns looks different in Scotland
(24:45) What Scottish Government and Scottish Parliamentary business has been postponed?
(31:15) FAI General Election publications and events to look forward to
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:30) Intro to FAI coverage of the General Election
(02:30) Economic and fiscal conditions prior to the election
(08:00) Campaign announcements so far
(018:20) AGCC report on North Sea jobs
Jack and Allison go over findings from the Scottish Government's recent household poverty publication, which shows that households with have at least one disabled adult are more likely to be in poverty than households without. This recent finding feeds into work that the FAI did in collaboration with the Scottish Parliament Information Centre over the past year, looking at the reasons why disabled adults are less likely to be in work compared to non-disabled adults.
The key findings are that
-Scotland has met its goal so far for increasing employment among disabled people, but its unclear whether or not the progress is sustainable
-Disability prevalence has increased substantially since 2014, largely due to increases in mental health awareness and reporting
-Disabled people are more likely to be in work because of this change in prevalence
-There are large regional disparities in rates of employment among disabled adults
-There are also large disparities in rates of employment for men and for people from minority ethnic backgrounds
See the full report here.
Chair:
Benjamin Cooper, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Guests:
Tony Shemwell, The Wise Group
Hamish Robertson, The Wise Group
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:30) The state of the Scottish economy
(03:20) Scotland's pandemic recovery
(07:40) Last thoughts on the Scottish Budget
(09:50) Future fiscal events and funding decisions
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:30) Challenges in economic forecasting; growth in 2023
(04:55) Uncertainty in measuring the economy
(06:50) The Labour Force Survey and labour force estimates
(11:45) 25 years of the Scottish Business Monitor
(15:50) Income tax analysis
(22:00) Upcoming research: Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy
(25:30) Impact of increasing interest rates
Participants:
- Dr Hannah Randolph, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:25) The challenging backdrop to the Scottish Budget
(05:28) The impact of the Autumn Statement on the Scottish Budget
(08:33) Spending commitments from the Scottish Government since the Medium-Term Financial Strategy
(13:55) Options for reforming Scottish Income Tax
(22:51) The Scottish Government's constraints on borrowing
(26:49) Main areas to look out for on Budget Day
Participants:
- João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
- Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps:
(00:28) Economic forecasts for growth and inflation
(03:03) Fiscal drag and its consequences
(06:50) National Insurance cuts
(08:45) Spending settlements for departments and devolved administrations remain tight - are they realistic?
(13:03) Consequences for Scotland
(17:17) What does this mean in the context of a looming general election?
Chair: Kate Milne, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:21) What can we expect from the budget next week?
(02:13) Could recent GDP revisions lead to looser fiscal policy?
(04:46) How might households and businesses be affected?
(06:49) What could the Chancellor do to spur on investment?
(10:28) How do things look for the Scottish economy?
Chair: Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: David Jack, Economic Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute
Chirsty McFadyen, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps:
(00:25) Previous work on learning disabilities
(01:45) Data on people with learning disabilities
(11:15) Recommendations for data collection and use
(20:15) Looking ahead - more on data
(27:05) Looking ahead - qualitative work
Chair
Ben Cooper, Associate Economist
Guests
Adam McGeoch, Fellow Economist
Timestamps
(00:30) A general economic update
(07:50) Are we heading for a recession?
(10:54) Are businesses feeling more optimistic?
(14:09) What are the main issues concerning firms right now?
Timestamps
(00:24) Latest GDP data from the ONS
(02:30) IMF forecast of UK economy in 2023
(05:08) UK Statistical Authority weighs in on proper use of data
(07:48) What have we seen so far from the FM
(09:37) The road ahead for Humza Yousaf
Chair
Ben Cooper, Associate Economist
Guests
Professor Mairi Spowage, Director
Hannah Randolph, Economic and Policy Analyst
Timestamps
(00:31) The latest findings from the Economic Commentary
(02:43) A review of the latest Scottish and UK economic data
(04:16) What does the data suggest about the ongoing cost of living crisis?
(05:55:) Economic inactivity and the Scottish labour market
(08:07) The spring statement and implications for Scotland
(13:37) Looking forward to the Scottish Business Monitor and the issues facing Scottish firms
Chair: Calum Fox, Economist, The Fraser of Allander Institute.
Guest: Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute.
Time Stamps:
(00:48) The OBR's GDP forecast.
(02:52) The OBR's inflation forecast.
(O4:22) The UK's public finances.
(07:31) What is the UK budget and why is it important?
(09:36) What additional funding does the Chancellor's announcements generate?
(11:15) Changes to childcare support.
(14:41) The Energy Bills Support Scheme.
(17:55) Disability Payment reforms.
(20:15) Changes to alcohol duty.
Chair: Kate Milne, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps:
(00:25) Latest GDP figures
(03:00) Energy prices
(05:40) Energy Support Scheme
(07:45) Looking ahead - the Scottish Business Monitor 100th Quarter and export activity
(11:00) Productivity and the four-day working week
(13:05) Scottish Leadership Contest and policy
Chair: Jack Williamson, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Time stamps:
(00:40) Latest GDP figures
(04:21) Length and depth of the looming recession
(06:08) Latest Labour Force Survey data
(09:28) Latest inflation figures
(12:39) Core inflation
(15:23) How well is the Central Bank performing?
(19:44) Upcoming Spring Budget
Chair: Ben Cooper, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: Adam McGeoch, Economist Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps:
00:34 - What is the Scottish Business Monitor?
02:24 - Why was the latest survey significant for the institute?
04:15 - What are the key takeaways from the latest survey?
06:25 - What are the biggest issues facing firms?
08:40 - How are businesses fairing in the current economic climate?
11:05 - Are firms optimistic about the coming year?
12:42 - How can businesses get involved in the Scottish Business Monitor?
Chair: Ciara Crummey, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps:
(00.22) Key changes announced in the December budget
(03.22) Were there any surprise announcements?
(08.14) Effect on consumers and businesses
(11.18) How has the budget been received?
(13.14) How this ties in with the UK budget?
Chair: Kate Milne, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, and David Eiser, Deputy Director
Timestamps
(00:30) Main takeaways from the Autumn Budget Review
(03:25) Were there any surprises?
(08:00) Has enough been done to ease the long recession ahead?
(12:00) Support for businesses and charities
(14:15) Implications for Scotland
Chair: Allison Catalano, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:30) Updates on the Scottish labour market and United Kingdom GDP
(01:45) Is the UK already in a recession?
(02:40) Drivers of poor growth
(4:05) The impact of Thursday's Autumn Budget Review on recession forecasts
(6:10) Additional expected features in the upcoming fiscal statement
(7:50) The impact of the Autumn Budget review in Scotland
Chair: Allison Catalano, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:30) Updates on the Scottish labour market and United Kingdom GDP
(01:45) Is the UK already in a recession?
(02:40) Drivers of poor growth
(4:05) The impact of Thursday's Autumn Budget Review on recession forecasts
(6:10) Additional expected features in the upcoming fiscal statement
(7:50) The impact of the Autumn Budget review in Scotland
(2:14) Discussion of the recent mini-budget and market reaction
(6:00) Discussion about the upcoming Bank of England reaction to the mini-budget and Scottish options for the medium-term fiscal policy
(9:05) Discussion of updated economic forecasts, inflation, and contractions for the coming year and Q4 2022
(11:20) Discussion of Scottish labour market, unemployment, and economic inactivity
(13:55) How are wage growth and inflation impacting household budgeting and expenditure?
Link to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data on Country and Regional Public Sector Finances, mentioned in the podcast:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021
Music by Lesfm from Pixabay
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
David Eiser, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:30) Initial takeaways from the spending review
(05:20) Discussion of latest economic forecasts
(07:55) Discussion of income tax
(13:45) What did we not find out?
(19:03) What happens next in the process?
Fraser of Allander
Rob Watts
The Usual Place
Heather, Jessica, Luke, Jack and Ben
Timestamps
(0.34) What is The Usual Place?
(2.08) How did The Usual Place come about?
(4.09) Why is there a need for social enterprises like The Usual Place?
(7.05) Funding The Usual Place?
(9.47) Lessons for society on how to better support young people with additional support needs.
(11.59) Hearing from young people who work at The Usual Place.
Chair
David Eiser, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Steve Williams, Deloitte
Timestamps
(00:35) – What are the main findings in our Commentary today?
(02:30) – How has the Omicron variant impacted the FAI's forecasts?
(05:00) – Steve, Mairi has talked about the impact that restrictions could have on businesses in particular sectors. Given you work with a lot of businesses, what are you hearing about their resilience?
(07:47) – What capacity does the Scottish Government have to support businesses?
(12:39) - Mairi we discuss in the commentary that this all sets the economic context for the Scottish Budget… how did the current outlook for the economy feed in to this?
(17:25) - The BoE has just announced that they are increasing the interest rate, is this a surprise, Mairi?
(19:50) - Steve, have you had a chance to consider the legacy of COP for Deloitte in Scotland?
(24:13) - Coming to you Mairi, what does government need to do to tackle these longer-term challenges moving forward?
(26:38) - Steve, how could inflation impact the outlook for the economy?
(00:37) Main reflections on the Budget
(03:22) Key tax announcements
(09:15) Announcements – or not – on council tax
(12:03) Social care spending increases starting to come through
(13:45) Scottish child payment & child poverty measures
(15:40) Local Government Funding impacts
(00:49) What does ITP Energised do?
(02:45) How have your operations changed in recent years?
(04:38) How important is the rise of “sustainable” or “green” finance in the progress towards net zero?
(05:58) What opportunities are there for the energy transition in Scotland for supply chain development?
(08:17) How are skills mismatches affecting the transition to net zero? Is this affecting your business?
(10:11) How have you adapted your business during COVID, and how might that shape your operations in the future?
(13:03) Have you noticed a change in the desire from companies to really be green and socially responsible in recent years?
(16:58) What do you think and hope may come out of COP26, both personally and for your business?
Chair
Stuart McIntyre, FAI
Guests
Mairi Spowage, FAI
David Eiser, FAI
Time stamps
(01:10) What are the key economic headlines from yesterday's budget?
(04:30) Do you think heightened uncertainty may result in less spending in future budgets?
(06:20) What are the key fiscal issues from the budget?
(09:10) What does all of this mean for Scotland?
(11:10) What pressures are expected?
(14:17) What are the changes surrounding UC?
(19:00) What do we expect in terms of levelling up?
(23: 30) How 'green' is the UK budget?
(27:10) Are there any key things to look out for in the upcoming Scottish budget?
Chair
Emma Congreve, FAI
Guests
Chris Birt, JRF
Peter Kelly, Poverty Alliance
Time stamps
(00:53) Background to Challenge Poverty Week
(08:32) Summary of JRF Poverty in Scotland 2021
(11:49) Overview of FAI modelling work on child poverty
(15:01) Discussion on the child poverty targets
Link to challenge poverty week:
https://www.challengepoverty.net/
Link to JRF Poverty in Scotland 2021:
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/poverty-scotland-2021
Timestamps:
(01:32) What is get2gether?
(03:49) What members have learned at get2gether and why this matters.
(11:35) Sex education for people with learning disabilities.
(16:42) Why people with learning disabilities often have low expectations of relationships.
(22:32) The barriers to making progress.
(24:13) Relationships and The Keys to Life.
(28:32) What policy changes do get2gether ambassadors want to see?
(00:00) Headlines from GERS...
(03:36) This year's areas of controversy
(08:52) What drives the differences between Scotland and the UK?
(10:08) What the figures mean for the constitutional debate
(13:47) Is there an issue of structural unfairness in the UK?
(16:52) The latest labour market data
(20:58) Is there any evidence of labour shortages?
(26:36) What about the longer-term outlook?
(31:00) Is there any differential impact on Scotland?
(34:10) Look ahead to what is coming up over the next couple of weeks
Timestamps
1:22 What is Breaking Barriers?
10:03 Breaking Barriers graduates share their stories
Featuring
Fraser of Allander: Rob Watts
Strathclyde Business School: Heather Stenhouse
Breaking Barriers graduates: Michael Higgins, Joe Kingdom and Lewis Cassidy
Check out the Local Zero podcast here, or through your favourite podcast platform.
Timestamps
(00:38) Introduction to Local Zero podcast
(01:43) What is meant by a green recovery?
(04:09) The climate change related policies in the manifestos
(08:54) Oil and Gas transition, including reskilling & training
(13:55) Policy ideas that were surprising - or areas that have not been discussed
(19:38) Where are we on net zero compared to where we need to be?
(24:38) The importance of COP26 in Glasgow
Contributors
Adam McGeoch, FAI
Mairi Spowage, FAI
Emma Congreve, FAI
Divergent Influencers
Timestamps
(00:38) Economic data and analysis we’ve published this week
(07:12) Learning Disabilities in the parties' manifestos
(11:32) A discussion with Divergent Influencers
(22:01) Child poverty in the manifestos
(25:56) Upcoming analysis
Contributors
Mairi Spowage, FAI
Emma Congreve, FAI
David Eiser, FAI
Alf Young, The Times
Timestamps
(00:48) Manifesto Analysis
(06:33) A discussion with Alf Young
(20:46) Economic Data and Analysis we’ve published this week
Timestamps
(00:30) Key Issues from the campaign this week
(06:33) A discussion with Mure Dickie
(19:42) A look forward to the next week
Timestamps
00:32 Disability and carer benefits for children and pensioners
02:55 The economy and growth
08:53 Jenni Davidson, Holyrood Magazine
19:33 Employability support
24:57 Looking to the week ahead
Chair
Emma Congreve
Guests
Sophie Haldane
Mphatso Kumwenda
Mairi Spowage
Timestamps
(0:58) What have been the main policy tools used in response to the pandemic?
(3:10) One key theme arising from the crisis has been the differential impact of the pandemic on different sectors and income levels, what are your thoughts on how policy has responded to this?
(5:55) What are ‘scarring effects’ and how much of a policy concern are they?
(9:34) What are the trade-offs between timely, targeted, and temporary fiscal policy?
(14: 12) How much of a concern is government debt?
(18:16) Has adapting to the pandemic changed the way we think about economic policy?
Contributors:
Mairi Spowage, Interim Director, FAI
Emma Congreve, Head of Poverty & Equalities Analysis FAI
Peter MacMahon, Political Editor ITV Border
Timestamps:
(00:44) Doubling the Scottish Child Payment (Emma)
(06:25) Carer and disability social security powers (Emma)
(08:28) Guest segment with Peter MacMahon
(16:56) Universal Basic Income (Mairi)
(21:28) Update on the economy this week (Mairi)
Links
Understanding Social Security in Scotland: Working age disability and carer benefits
https://fraserofallander.org/understanding-social-security-in-scotland-working-age-disability-and-carer-benefits/
Election 2021 Issue brief: Universal Basic Income
https://fraserofallander.org/election-2021-issue-brief-universal-basic-income/
Household incomes and the 2021 election
https://fraserofallander.org/election-2021-issue-brief-universal-basic-income/
The economic backdrop to the Scottish election
https://fraserofallander.org/the-economic-backdrop-to-the-scottish-election/
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Interim Director, FAI
Guests
Emma Congreve, Head of Poverty & Equalities Analysis FAI
David Eiser: Head of Fiscal Analysis FAI
Stuart McIntyre: Head of Research, FAI
Timestamps
(02:32) Reflections on the big themes discussed at the election webinar
(13:32) Adult social care reform
(16:49) Income tax powers
(25:15) Labour market outlook
(30:31) New social security powers
Episode NotesChair
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Adam McGeoch, Fraser of Allander Institute
Gavin Hood, Deloitte
Timestamps
(00:30) – Brief overview of commentary, Mairi
(7:40) – The effects of the pandemic on the hospitality sector, Adam
(10:00) – Homeworking in Scotland, Adam
(12:40) - Implications for Spending, Gavin
FAI
Emma Congreve
Rob Watts
Shared Lives Plus
Lesley Stevenson
Abby Farrell
Louise Kennedy
Timestamps
(01:18) Discussion of FAI report into Scotland's social care system for adults with learning disabilities.
(10:54) Discussion of the Shared Lives model of care and support, and a look at what the evidence tells us.
(20:18) Abby and Louise share their experiences of Shared Lives.
Chair
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guest
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:47) Discussion of the Scottish Business Monitor
(08:06) Discussion of the Social Care Support for Adults Report
Chair:
Emma Congreve (FAI)
Guests:
Scott Richardson-Read (Scottish Transitions Forum, ARC Scotland)
Kieran, Laura, Claire, Rameez and Ryan (Divergent Influencers, Scottish Transitions Forum)
Timestamps:
(00:50) What is ARC Scotland and what are "transitions to adulthood"?
(04:04) Why is transition planning so important?
(05:36) What does good transition planning look like?
(10:52) Kieran, Laura, Claire, Rameez and Ryan talk about their experiences of transitioning to adulthood.
(20:25) Kieran and Laura tell us about their work with ARC Scotland.
(22:00) If you could put forward one change to improve transitions, what would it be?
(01:02) January https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/a-referendum-in-2020/
(04:04) February https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/budget/budget-2020-21-preliminary-analysis/
(05:46) March https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/this-isnt-a-v-shaped-recession/
(10:48) April https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/coronavirus-quantifying-the-impact-on-the-scottish-economy/
(14:11) May https://fraserofallander.org/covid/restart-as-you-mean-to-go-on/
(20:13) June https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/the-outlook-for-the-scottish-budget-in-2020-and-beyond/
(25:02) July https://fraserofallander.org/covid/latest-data-on-the-scottish-economy-update-10th-july-2020/
(29:07) August https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/reflections-on-yesterdays-recovery-report/
(33:37) September https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/not-o-k-the-shape-of-the-recovery-to-come/
(35:50) October https://fraserofallander.org/learning-disabilities/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-human-rights-and-the-exclusion-of-people-with-learning-disabilities/
(40:18) November https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/fiscal-policy-tax/the-evolution-of-the-scottish-budget-2020-21-and-a-look-forward-to-the-spending-review/
(43:58) December https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/fiscal-policy-tax/on-exempting-nhs-bonus-payments-from-tax/
Chair:
Mairi Spowage (FAI)
Guest:
Dr Hannah White (Institute for Government)
Timestamps:
(02:10) How well are devolved budgetary processes understood at Westminster?
(05:24) What COVID-19 has taught us about the interaction between Westminster and the devolved parliaments.
(14:37) The impact of Brexit on inter-governmental relations.
This podcast was recorded on the 15th December and makes reference to the Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary and annual Budget Report published that morning.
- https://fraserofallander.org/fai-publications/economic-commentary-december-2020/
- https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/budget/scotlands-budget-report-2020/
More information on the budget work of the Scottish Human Rights Commission can be found here: https://www.scottishhumanrights.com/projects-and-programmes/human-rights-budget-work/
Latest work from JRF in Scotland can be found here: https://www.jrf.org.uk/our-work/scotland
Chair:
Graeme Roy (FAI)
Guests:
Emma Congreve (FAI), Ali Hosie (Scottish Human Rights Commission), Chris Birt (JRF in Scotland)
Timestamps:
(01:37) What does the FAI budget report say about these issues? (EC)
(04:14) What is a human rights based approach to budgeting? (AH)
(08:33) What are the key principles that the Scottish Government should be adhering to? (AH)
(11:40) How well is Scotland performing compared to other countries on these principles? (AH)
(14:25) How important is the overall budget process for addressing poverty? (CB)
(16:30) How could more be done to allow for better participation of people who’s lives are impacted by budget decisions? (CB)
(18:53) How can we get better at producing policy across portfolios, and avoid working in silos? (CB)
(21:38) What structures could help with doing this? (EC)
(25:50) What should be the top priorities for the Scottish Budget? (AH, CB, EC)
(34:42) What should economists and commentators focus on in reporting changes in the budget? (AH, CB)
Guests:
Chair: Emma Congreve, FAI
Guest: Isla Kapasi, University of Leeds
Timestamps:
(02:25) Motivations for self employment
(06:37) Are there particular groups that are affected
(11:53) Implications for policy
(24:12) Post Covid considerations for low income self employed
Links to further information on the project:
- https://pureapps2.hw.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/9934375/In_work_Poverty_Enterprise_Report.pdf
- Smith, A., Galloway, L., Jackman, L., Danson, M. & Whittam, G. (2019) Poverty, social exclusion and enterprise policy A study of UK policies’ effectiveness over 40 years. International Journal of Entrepreneurship & Innovation 20(2), 107-118.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1465750318809803
- Danson, M., Galloway, L. & Sherif, M. (2020) From unemployment to self-employment: can enterprise policy intensify the risks of poverty? Critical Perspectives on Accounting.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1045235420300174?via%3Dihub
- https://business.leeds.ac.uk/cees/dir-record/research-projects/1537/why-the-poor-outcomes-an-examination-of-motivations-in-a-context-of-poverty-entrepreneurship
Guests:
Emma Congreve, FAI
Mairi Spowage, FAI
David Eiser, FAI
Timestamps:
(0:26) Headlines from the Spending Review
(04:22) What choices will need to be made by the Scottish Government
(08:55) Future outlook for public finances and the economy
(13:35) No announcement on Universal Credit and implications
(14:41) Scottish GDP statistics and challenges over the next few months
(19:49) Look ahead to the next Quarterly Economic Commentary
Guests
Emma Congreve, FAI
Mairi Spowage, FAI
James Black, FAI
Timestamps
(0:20) What is the Scottish Business Monitor?
(1:48) What does the business monitor tell us about overall business confidence?
(3:28) What does the monitor tell us about the experience of different parts of the Scottish economy?
(6:50) How are businesses changing the way we are working?
(11:10) What is the view of business on how the UK and Scottish Governments are handling the public health crisis and supporting businesses?
(14:20) How can we interpret the new labour market statistics?
Guests
Chair: Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests: Maggie and Keith, Directors at PeopleFirst & Rob Watts, Research Associate at the Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(01:40) Human rights and coronavirus
(05:12) Digital exclusion and response to the Connecting Scotland initiative
(09:38) Other issues that are of concern to PeopleFirst
(10:48) Info on the Fraser of Allander’s future work
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Adam McGeoch, Fraser of Allander Institute
David Eiser, Fraser of Allander Institute
Steve Williams, Deloitte
Timestamps
(00:30) – Brief overview of commentary, Mairi
(2:23) – Overview of the Scottish economy and results from the commentary, Adam
(7:15) – Considerations of businesses, Steve
(18:00) - Implications for the Scottish budget, David
(0:58) What is your take on the current situation (JP)
(5:11) Is worse yet to come? (GR)
(9:16) How has the policy response been and what will they need to do next at the UK level (JP)
(14:00) Reflections on the policy response in Scotland (JP & GR)
(19:30) Thinking about the recovery (EC, GR, JP)
(26:58) Edinburgh as a microcosm of the challenges facing the economy (EC, JP)
GERS Guide
Click on the link to see the new FAI GERS Guide.
Timestamps
(00:58) What is GERS?
(03:00) The history of GERS
(05:15) What does it mean that GERS is an “accredited” National Statistics publication
(08:22) The evolution of GERS in terms of quality of methods
(11:04) What does it mean that some of the figures in GERS are estimated?
(20:51) What are the controversial spending elements?
(23:45) What have recent issues been about the interpretation of GERS?
(25:58) Should GERS do more to compare to other regions of the UK rather than the UK as a whole?
(29:40) GERS and the constitutional debate
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director of the FAI
Guests
Rebecca Moore, VP of Operations at TravelNest
Gordon Murray, owner of Craigmaddie Muir Farm
Timestamps
(01:08) Can you explain a bit about what TravelNest does?
(03:28) Why did you get into property rentals given that you are a farmer?
(5:20) There has been a lot of discussion that the lockdown associated with the pandemic and the constraints that are caused by physical distancing pose particular challenges for the hospitality industry. What has the experience of your business been during lockdown and as the economy opens up?
(08:43) How much do you see the changes in consumer behaviour as part of broader trends in the hospitality industry?
(14:20) A lot of government support has been given to businesses to help them survive through the crisis. As a fairly young start up, what challenges have there been in accessing that support?
(17:30) As a property owner, what has your experience been of the lockdown and then easing of restrictions?
(19:34) What support have you received from Travelnest? How easy have you found it to adapt?
(21:12) Has membership of the Association of Self Caterers and Agri-tourism group allowed you to interact with peers to discuss additional burdens that you have?
(21:35) Do you think that consumer behaviour has changed, in terms of their willingness to spend in the local economy? Or is it too early to say how persistent changes may be?
(23:35) Does Gordon’s experience chime with what you are hearing from other property owners?
(28:32) You are also an employer. How have you seen your ways of working change through the crisis? Are there any changes that will persist?
Chair
Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Stuart McIntyre, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:34) What do we know so far on the labour market and what is coming down the line?
(05:20) Outlook for household incomes and what has happened so far
(08:41) What do we need to think about beyond the headline unemployment numbers?
(10:31) Additional dimension that’s brought by consolidated job losses in certain sectors/localities and the impact on particular groups of people
(15:00) What happens at the end of the furlough scheme and what else could the government do here?
(20:25) Is the focus on young people the right place to put the focus on employment support schemes?
(22:40) The suitability of the current UK Government social security policy in a labour market where employment opportunities are severely constrained.
(26:00) When will we get more updates on the labour market and what will remain unknown?
Chair
Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
David Eiser, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:27) What we know about how the economy is performing
(01:50) How are different sectors faring
(03:05) Global effects
(03:39) What will the real world effects be?
(04:50) What are business telling us about how they are faring?
(07:01) What will be the effects as the Job Retention Scheme is removed?
(07:35) Policy Response
(10:18) What do we know about the Scottish Budget and how consequentials have been spent
(12:10) What is the outlook for the Scottish Budget?
(13:51) When might we know more about future budgets?
(17:37) Fiscal Framework Implications
You can find more information on the new research published by JRF, which included a survey of 2000 Scottish households here: https://www.jrf.org.uk/press/almost-third-scots%E2%80%99-incomes-have-reduced-lockdown-half-affected-renters-worried-about-paying
Chair
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Jim McCormick, JRF in Scotland
Deborah Hay, JRF in Scotland
Timestamps
(1:51) How was progress on tackling child poverty in particular looking pre-Covid, Jim
(5:40) What do we know about the impact of Covid on those on low incomes, Deborah
(13:14) In terms of social security, what has happened and what needs to happen to cope with the fallout of Covid-19, Jim
(20:49) How has housing policy developed over the past decade, and what opportunities are there now, Deborah
(29:00) Priorities for the Scottish election and cross UK action, Jim and Deborah
Source
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Dr Jonathan Norris, Lecturer in Economics, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps
(1:10) Introduction to ‘A Prelude to Building Back Better’
(8:22) What are the possible impacts of Covid-19 on poverty?
(12:57) Introduction to ‘The Economics of Parenting: Children and Inequality in a Time of Shutdown’
(28:48) Will the nature of this particular crisis have a more serious impact on education than a ‘normal’ recession?
(33:14) What are the challenges with measuring success?
Source
Stephen expands on his contribution to our Expert Insights publication, with Andrew offering findings from his report ‘Rethinking our global future’.
Chair
Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Stephen Boyle, Fraser of Allander Institute
Professor Andrew Goudie, University of Strathclyde
Timestamps
(1:03) Oversight and key points from ‘Rethinking our Global Future’, Andrew
(12:20) The short term and long term implications and issues for the global economy, Stephen
(18:25) What are your concerns for the Euro Area? Stephen
(21:08) What is the importance of resilience? Andrew
(28:20) What do you see as the outlook for monetary policy internationally and in the UK? Stephen
(30:34) What are your expectations for future public finances and public services? Andrew
(38:31) What are your reflections on the outlook for public spending? Stephen
(43:02) Where should the attention be focussed in the next few years? Andrew
(48:45) What should the priority be within the policy landscape of Scotland? Stephen
(55:57) How do you turn ideas within a strategy into reality? Stephen & Andrew
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Steve Williams, Deloitte
Timestamps
(0:40) – Brief overview of publications and week ahead, Graeme
(9:00) – Overview of the upcoming economic commentary analysis and forecasts, Mairi
(15:45) – Considerations of businesses beyond the crisis, Steve
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Calum Paterson, Scottish Equity Partners
Timestamps
(0:45) What are your current thoughts on the economic and business environment?
(7:45) What are the views within the business community for change in the face of the crisis?
(15:10) What do you think could and should change in the new ‘normal’ for businesses?
(21:10) How might policy change in the future to continue to support business?
(27:00) What are your views on how the economy might restart?
(29:10) What is the long term role of the state?
Source
Chair
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guest
Alan Thornburrow, Scotland Director, Business in the Community
Source
This podcast builds on the themes covered in this report by Jenifer Johnston, one of our participants: https://reformscotland.com/2020/05/scotland-needs-a-virtual-school-jenifer-johnston/
Chair
Stuart McIntyre, Head of Research, FAI
Speakers
Emma Congreve, Knowledge Exchange Fellow, FAI
Jenifer Johnston, Public Affairs Expert
Tanya Wilson, Lecturer in Economics, University of Glasgow
Timestamps
(1:41) Overview of the report (Jenifer)
(3:34) Pre-crisis labour market inequalities and attainment gap and emerging picture (Tanya, Emma)
(11:48) Are there people falling between the cracks? (Jenifer)
(13:20) Discussion around potential for increased inequality (Tanya, Emma)
(21:33) Possible delivery model for education in next few months and implications (Jenifer)
(27:49) Looking ahead: risks, opportunities and policy (Jenifer, Tanya, Emma)
(39:10) Particular issues facing low income families (Emma)
(42:06) Wrap-up and what are the priorities that need addressing (Jenifer, Tanya)
Source
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, FAI
Speakers
David Eiser, Head of Fiscal Analysis, FAI
Guto Ifan, Research Associate, Wales Governance Centre – Cardiff University
David Phillips, Associate Director, Institute For Fiscal Studies
Dr Ed Poole, Senior Lecturer, Wales Governance Centre – Cardiff University
Timestamps
(01:01) How has the outlook for the budget evolved since the crisis?
(03:12) In terms of the risk that the budget has been exposed to, how has this changed since the budget was set and what is likely to happen next in setting the supplementary budget?
(05:20) In terms of the Scottish budget, how has the outlook evolved and what additional risks is the budget exposed to?
(08:44) What extent has the crisis changed perspectives about the strengths and limitations of fiscal frameworks that exist?(14:30) The Scottish Government and other commentators in Scotland have called for extra flexibilities, how feasible are these flexibilities and how might they be arranged by the Scottish and UK Government?
(17:57) In terms of the additional flexibility that the Welsh Government has been calling for, how well do you think negotiations between the Welsh and UK Government will go regarding these flexibilities?
(20:13) To what extent would you say the policy response has diverged in Scotland compared to England?
(23:59) Has the experience been similar in Wales?
(25:57) Do you have any reflections on the different ways parts of the UK will come out of lockdown and what impact this may have on the Welsh economy and the Welsh budget?
(27:45) What impact may this have on the Scottish economy and its budget?
(33:14) In terms of the policy responses on the funding side, do you think this reflects the constraints of the fiscal framework?
(38:48) What implications will this crisis have on the distribution of devolved spending more generally and the way public services are funded?
(43:16) How do you think the fiscal framework will evolve in the longer term in Wales?
(46:35) How does this crisis allow the Welsh Government to pursue their own fiscal strategy?
(48:59) How do you think the fiscal framework will evolve in the longer term in Scotland?
(53:26) Given the fiscal frameworks in place during this crisis, how do you think this might impact the fiscal frameworks of the future?
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Director, FAI
Speakers
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, FAI
Emma Congreve, Knowledge Exchange Fellow, FAI
Stuart McIntyre, Head of Research, FAI
Timestamps
(7:00) Mairi Spowage: What we know so far
(17:40) Emma Congreve: The impact on individuals and households
(25:45) Stuart McIntyre: The recovery and the long term challenges
(33:10) Q&A
(33:50) How will the fiscal framework be affected?
(43:35) What does the crisis mean for households, child poverty and universal basic income?
(52:15) What is the outlook for businesses in Scotland and what are the unemployment effects?
(56:30) What are the local and regional effects of the crisis and what is the outlook for local government?
(1:01:32) How will the crisis affect universities and colleges?
(1:07:50) What opportunities will there be for the economy and how can we support them?
(1:16:25) What are the implications for the construction sector and future house building?
(1:19:42) What are the long term implications for the care profession?
(1:22:29) How can companies be supported to support recovery?
(1:25:40) What does the current situation mean for Brexit?
Source
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, FAI
Guests
Ian Bruce, GCVS
Jenny Paterson, Breakthrough
Timestamps
(00:50) Impact of the crisis on the voluntary sector, and how it has had to adapt
(08:30) Resilience of the voluntary sector going into the crisis
(14:39) Discussion of policy measures provided by Government
(23:27) How the sector has supported each other
(26:20) Long term impacts on the economy and society, and the role for the voluntary sector in the recovery
Source
Chair
Ben Cooper, Knowledge Exchange Assistant, FAI
Guests
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, FAI
Aodhán Connolly, Director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium
Timestamps
(0.30) Overview of the Northern Ireland Sector and how it compares to the rest of the UK
(4.10) How has the sector been impacted by CoVid-19 and how has it had to adapt?
(11.09) How has the impact to sector been different to what has been experienced in the rest of the UK?
(15.14) How have the NI government policy interventions helped?
(18:11) Has there been a large uptake of UK government measures and how will that continue into the future?
(20.17) How will Brexit now have an impact on the sector given the current economic situation?
(25.43) Will the UK government be more flexible now in their approach to Brexit?
(27.01) What is your vision of the long term impact on the sector?
(31.45) What are you views on the future of business rates?
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute.
Guests
Cara Pacitti, Researcher, Resolution Foundation
Richard Hughes, Research Associate, Resolution Foundation
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
David Eiser, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(2:44) Cara Pacitti: Findings from recent publication ‘Implications of Coronavirus for the UK Economy and Public Finances’
(10:45) Richard Hughes: The policy response successes and challenges so far and thoughts for improvements.
(19:45) Mairi Spowage: The implications for the Scottish economy, and the policy divergences that exist in Scotland. David Eiser will cover the implications for the Scottish fiscal framework and the Scottish Budget.
(30:41) David Eiser: Implications for the Scottish Budget
(43:11) Q&A
(43:55) The Outlook for the Minimum Wage?
(46:25) The outlook for poverty and inequality?
(50:00) The economic implications of exiting lockdown
(52:10) How might Scotland differ from the rest of the UK?
(56:09) How might Quantitative Easing be utilised?
(59:50) How might the Scottish Government use bonds to support the recovery?
(01:02:20) What are the intergenerational implications of higher debt?
(01:05:20) What sectors are likely to help more in aiding recovery?
(01:08:40) What the future might look like.
Source
For those who would like to find out more, SRUC has a dedicated Rural Brexit Business webpage.
Chair
Emma Congreve, Economist and Knowledge Exchange Fellow, FAI
Guests
Professor Andrew Barnes, Professor of Rural Resource Economics, SRUC
Steven Thomson, Senior Agricultural Economist, SRUC
Timestamps
(2.17) Overview of the rural economy, agriculture & the domestic food supply chain in Scotland
(8.22) Impact of Covid-19 so far
(14.25) What support is there for the sector
(20.16) Impact on tourism and remote rural areas
(28.14) Medium to long term prospects, including Brexit
Source
Chair
Mark Mitchell, Fraser of Allander Institute
Speakers
Alf Young, Times Columnist
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:20) How this crisis compares with previous crises in the Scottish economy
(4:38) During previous crisis, what did people imagine the long term impacts would be, and how did that bear out?
(9:18) Have the structural changes in the Scottish economy made us more or less resilient to a crisis such as this?
(14:02) Regional impacts of the current crisis
(19:00) Discussion of policy responses
(23:40) Differential approaches in Scotland to guidance
(27:30) Scottish Government Advisory Group
(34:22) Long term impacts of the pandemic on the economy
Source
Chair
Stuart McIntyre, Head of Research, Fraser of Allander Institute
Speakers
Stephen Sheal, Director of External Relationships at the Oil and Gas Technology Centre (OGTC)
Shane Taylor, Research and Policy Manager for Aberdeen and Grampian Chambers of Commerce (AGCC)
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(01:04) Reflections on the current crisis and the impact on the oil and gas sector.
(05:30) How was the sector coping before the pandemic?
(09:06) Resilience of the Oil and Gas Sector
(11:27) View of businesses towards the government policy response
(18:41) Gaps in support for businesses
(26:37) Government policy measures that would be welcomed by the sector
(32:26) Future strengths of the North East economy
Source
Chair
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Speaker
Helen Martin, STUC
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
(00:25) Reflections on the current crisis and the impact on workers.
(03:45) How prepared were we for this pandemic?
(07:50) Policy measures that have been introduced and who is falling through the gaps
(12:24) Sectors of the economy that have precarious workers
(15:48) How could the economy be safely started up in a gradual way?
(19:39) Valuing key workers
(23:53) Long term impacts of the crisis on economy, the labour market and society
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Speaker
Jim Walker, Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
[1:00] Have we seen anything like this before in the global economy?
[2:44] How Asian economies are coping with the pandemic
[5:50] Have different economies reacted differently because of structural difference or different policy responses?
[8:14] How could developing countries cope?
[11:45] What could the UK learn from other countries’ policy responses
[15:50] Monetary policy responses across the globe
[17:37] Long term impacts of the crisis on the global economy
Source
Chair
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Speaker
Dave Innes, Head of Economics at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF)
Timestamps
[1:57] Poverty before the crisis
[4:21] What do we know about the impact so far
[7:57] Impacts in different parts of the UK
[11:40] Government support so far
[16:43] Support that may be required in the future
[19:45] Thoughts on economic policymaking beyond the crisis
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Speaker
Tracy Black, Director of CBI Scotland
Timestamps
[00:18] Scale of the challenge facing business and how businesses have responded
[10:14] What do businesses think about the policy response, what’s been working and what needs further though?
[19:05] How do we start the economy back up?
[27:50] Long-term changes
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Speakers
James Black, Economist at the FAI
Mairi Spowage, Deputy Director of the FAI
Timestamps
[0:22] An overview of the Scottish Business Monitor [Mairi]
[1:18] The results for the first quarter of 2019 [James]
[2:23] Business outlook over the coming months [James]
[3:57] What did we find around the impact of the current crisis on businesses? [Mairi]
Source
Chair
Emma Congreve. Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
Sir Harry Burns, Professor of Global Public Health at the University of Strathclyde
Professor Graeme Roy, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
[0:00] Introduction [Emma]
[] What’s your take on how this crisis has unfolded? [Sir Harry]
[2:12] Is it uncommon to see this level of restrictions in pandemics?
[4:16] What will the damage be to the economy? [Graeme]
[9:09] This crisis will affect households differently. Are there health implications to shutting down the economy? What does this mean for inclusive growth? [Sir Harry]
[14:56] What economic questions does the crisis raise in the short, medium and long-term – for people, businesses, Government policy and international supply chains? [Graeme]
[21:32] What are the big questions you want policymakers to be asking for a new normal that has the interests of long term health and wellbeing at its core? [Sir Harry]
[26:50] Do you think one of the outcomes of this crisis might encourage a rethink of how Government policy works? [Sir Harry]
[29:12] Will we be moving to a new normal? [Graeme]
Source
Chair
Professor Graeme Roy, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute
Guest
Professor Tricia Findlay, Director of the Scottish Centre for Employment Research (SCER) and Co-Chair of Scotland’s Fair Work Convention
Source
Chair
Graeme Roy, Fraser of Allander Institute
Guests
John Macintosh
Mairi Spowage, Fraser of Allander Institute
Emma Congreve, Fraser of Allander Institute
Timestamps
[0:00] How do you see the Scottish economy being impacted over the coming months? (Mairi Spowage)
[5:30] How are businesses being impacted? (John Macintosh)
[9:33] What does this mean for individuals and households? (Emma Congreve)
[14:10] Will different parts of Scotland be affected more than others? (Mairi Spowage)
[15:35] What advice would you give to businesses? (John Macintosh)
[19:08] How has the government responded and where might further support be needed? (Mairi Spowage)
[24:27] What do the policy responses mean for households and individuals? (Emma Congreve)
[28:08] How might the Scottish economy be fundamentally changed as a result of this?