The Political Notebook: Recent Episodes
The Political Notebook
The Political Notebook is an inter-generational audio show discussing politics and current events from an Arizona-centric perspective.
William F. Buckley was the founder of modern American conservatism. In this episode, we talk about how Buckley fused together a conservative coalition while also drawing the boundaries that defined the movement. How did Buckley deal with the John Birch Society, and how does this compare to how Kevin Roberts today is dealing with Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes? Is there any hope for traditional conservatives to regain political significance in the modern era?
Republicans are blaming Katie Hobbs for the condition of the state economy and the state budget. Fair or foul?***Links: - Robert Robb column on Hobbs's narrow political playing field (https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/hobbss-narrow-political-playing-field)- Go big on civics education (https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/go-big-on-civics-education)
What are the political and practical consequences of Trump's on-again off-again tariffs? Is Karrin Taylor Robson the new Martha McSally?
Are Trump and the U.S. Senate headed for conflict? Can divided government in Arizona produce results?Links:"The beginning of the end of U.S. leadership of the free world" https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-us-leadership"A big GOP win, but not really a mandate" https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/a-big-gop-win-but-not-really-a-mandate"Politics Will Return, Part 2" https://thedispatch.com/article/politics-will-return-part-2/
Kathy Petsas is a long-time Republican activist in Arizona. She was recently featured in a book about how the MAGA movement has taken over the Republican Party at the ground level. Kathy shares her first-hand experience dealing with MAGA true believers who started showing up in waves to precinct meetings in 2021. We also discuss the defining characteristics of MAGA movement, and how MAGA's ideology is different from conservativism. The book is titled "Finish What We Started: The MAGA Movement’s Ground War to End Democracy"Link: https://www.amazon.com/Ground-Game-MAGA-Movements-America/dp/0316497517
What are Harris and Trump's end game strategies? Will they work? What would be the effect of a Lake loss on the future of the Republican Party?
Does Lake really have it wrapped up? Can a Haley conservative win a Republican primary for Congress? What's at stake in the GOP primaries for County offices?
What should be done for housing affordability? What is happening with the Prop 123 extension?Show notes:- Robert Robb column on the Starter Home Act: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/hobbss-veto-message-inadvertently- Column on Prop 123: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/refer-a-simple-clean-permanent-state- Column on Katie Hobbs triangulating against MAGA: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/hobbs-channels-clinton-bill-that- The Dispatch article on YIMBY momentum: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/capitolism/yimbys-are-winning-local-housing-battles-but-can-they-win-the-national-housing-war/
What's next for Arizona and the country?Show notes: - Robert Robb column on Sinema and Haley: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/sinema-haley-and-the-end-of-hope- Tim Steller column on Sinema: https://tucson.com/news/local/tim-stellers-column-sinemas-self-indulgent-senate-term-doomed-her/article_08ccdf9e-dbe5-11ee-8d05-cf89651b7f4e.html- Arizona Republic Editorial on Sinema: https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2024/03/06/kyrsten-sinema-reelection-consequential-senate/72857151007/- The Summit, hosted by Tucker Carlson (Kari Lake appearance starts at 8:24:44, after Nikki Haley's interview with Tucker): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuAGkW4KOEw
Will Lake have a pragmatic conservative opponent? What about the MAGA melee in congressional district 8?
Is the new right's critique of market capitalism any sounder than that of the left? Is it realistic for populist conservatives to beat liberals in seizing and exercising government power?
Links: "In Defense of the American Free Market" -- The Optimistic American podcast -- Paul Johnson interviews Robert Robb Audio: https://optamerican.podbean.com/e/in-defense-of-the-american-free-market-robert-robb/ Video: https://youtu.be/BiSIOvTQhwU
Is there anything that can happen between now and the convention to shake his hold on primary voters? Should Trump opponents consolidate behind a single candidate? Should that be DeSantis?
Who gets the blame if there's a state government shutdown? Can there be a bipartisan approach to the housing shortage?
Is Hobbs going to govern as a moderate? Does Sinema have a chance as an independent? Will the Republican MAGA fever ever break?
Are there any legitimate arguments against Prop 308? How is the immigration issue playing generally in the 2022 election?
Show Notes:
Op-Ed by Fred DuVal: "Arizona doesn't have to be the SB 1070 state. Proposition 308 can right many wrongs" https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/10/11/prop-308-gives-dreamers-equal-opportunity-state-tuition/8199900001/
How will the failed referendum play in the 2022 election? What reforms of the current law might be considered? Are district and charter schools being treated fairly?
Show notes:
Robert Robb column: "Referendum failure dramatically changes the politics of universal private school vouchers." https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-political-notebook-93022
Billy Robb on state testing: "Proficiency and its discontents: Could you pass the AASA?" https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/proficiency-and-its-discontents
All about water policy. Where does our water supply come from? Who has the rights to use water from the Colorado River? What happens as the drought gets worse? Do we need a new source of water, such as a desalination plant?
Show notes:
Robert Robb column (3/6/2022) https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2022/03/06/gov-doug-ducey-water-authority-isnt-even-half-baked/9365898002/
Grady Gammage Jr. response (3/8/2022) https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/03/08/we-have-time-but-we-need-move-now-big-water-projects/9417805002/
Is the Democratic party moving toward the center? Has Sinema helped or hurt Democratic prospects?
Can Republicans win in Arizona by increasing MAGA turnout? How much can states actually do to secure the border?
Is there any prospect of a counter-revolution to Trumpism in the Republican Party? How should Democrats approach the general election? What happens if the Trump slate wins the general?
How should the state address Covid-related learning losses? What effect are the January 6th hearings having?
Links:
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Robert Robb on Substack: (https://robertrobb.substack.com/)
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Robert Robb post on Covid-related learning loss: (https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-political-notebook-72222)
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Billy Robb on Substack (https://chollaexpress.substack.com/)
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Arizona Agenda post on the Republican Party divide: (https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/the-daily-agenda-when-does-reconstruction)
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Download the Substack App on your Apple device: (https://on.substack.com/p/substackapp)
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Cheney Closing Statement At Select Committee’s Eighth Public Hearing: (https://cheney.house.gov/2022/07/21/cheney-closing-statement-at-select-committees-eighth-public-hearing/)
Is there now a political space in GOP politics to challenge the big lie? Is Joe Manchin rescuing Mark Kelly?
Subscribe to Robert Robb on Substack: https://robertrobb.substack.com/
Subscribe to Robert Robb on Substack: https://robertrobb.substack.com/
On this episode of the podcast, we talk about the new school voucher law in Arizona. How will the upcoming political fight play out? Also: Should Ducey endorse Robson?
Also: Should independent voters choose a Democratic or Republican ballot?
Links:
Arizona Agenda: What candidates for Gov, SOS and AG say about 2020 election (https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/cheatsheet-what-candidates-for-gov?s=r)
Arizona Republic Editorial: Where's the choice? (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2022/06/05/arizona-primary-races-senate-governor-legislature-secretary-state-show-dysfunction/9706589002/)
Robert Robb column: Arizona desperately needs a non-Trump GOP candidate (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2022/06/05/arizona-desperately-needs-non-trump-gop-candidate-georgia-lesson/7487615001/)
Arizona Mirror: Arizona’s independents are largely powerless in primary elections (https://www.azmirror.com/2022/06/06/arizonas-independents-are-largely-powerless-in-primary-elections/)
Abe Kwok column: Independent voters have a lot of power in Arizona's primary election – if they show up (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/abekwok/2022/06/05/independent-voters-could-change-primary-election-if-they-show-up/7488913001/)
Will swing voters be more influenced by their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration or their antipathy toward Trump?
Will bad blood keep a grand bargain from being reached? Is Kari Lake unstoppable in the Republican primary?
Why isn't any Republican candidate following the Youngkin path? Is there any chance for win-win policies in the Arizona legislature? Also: What Europe owes the Ukrainian people.
A conversation with Matt Beienburg about the value of American federalism. Can it be reclaimed? Robert Robb is pessimistic. Matt is more of an optimist.
Matt Beienburg is the Director of Education Policy at the Goldwater Institute. He also serves as director of the institute’s Van Sittert Center for Constitutional Advocacy.
Here's a link to read Matt's article on federalism, discussed on the podcast: https://www.realclearpublicaffairs.com/articles/2021/11/17/its_time_to_reclaim_american_federalism_803955.html
How will the education issue play in Arizona’s 2022 election? What are the prospects for backpack funding? Where in the heck is Arizona on income taxes?
From running as a conservative reformer to governing as a pragmatic problem solver to thumping the cultural issues on behalf of Republican governors nationally ... who is the authentic Ducey?
By funding the Arizona “audit” what do Trump conspiracy advocates expect? Can Ken Bennett make it semi-honest? Can any Republican candidate be trusted?
Robert Robb columns for reference:
On the difference between Michigan's election review and Arizona's farce https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2021/07/16/michigan-election-review-responsible-arizona-audit-farce/7983475002/
Trump visit spotlights continuing complicity of Arizona Republican leaders https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2021/07/28/trump-visit-spotlights-continuing-complicity-arizona-republican-leaders/5389925001/
An early grade for Biden. Sinema’s filibuster pickle. Arizona Democratic prospects in 2022.
A discussion of the factors driving the teacher shortage in Arizona.
For reference: https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/why-is-there-a-teacher-shortage-in
Should Trump be impeached? How do Republicans deal with Trumpism from this point forward?
How alarmed should we be about Trump's attempts to overturn the election results? What will it mean for the future of the Republican Party -- both in Arizona and nationally?
Does Biden have a mandate other than not being a jerk? What happened to the blue wave -- nationally and in Arizona?
What are the consequences if Prop 208 passes? What are the consequences if Prop 208 fails? Also, do we need new ways to teach in a Covid environment?
A breakdown of the campaigns of Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. Also, a preview of the possible legal fights surrounding the 2020 election. Are judges helping or hurting the confidence that Americans will have in the results?
Should we trust the polls? Can Trump ride the law and order issue to an upset victory? Can McSally turn the tide on Kelly?
Something a bit different. A collection of previously recorded conversations around the theme of congressional dysfunction and the imbalance of powers. Structural reforms, including the filibuster rule and term limits, as well as immediate calls to action.
Trump says he will substantially reduce troops in Afghanistan before the election. Will he? What will be the consequences? Plus key takeaways from the primary election. Is Schweikert in trouble?
-After Trump's tweet about delaying the election, Republicans swiftly rejected the notion. Is this a sign of a larger shift?
-Covid-19 in Arizona: Should there be firm metrics for reopening, particularly for schools?
-Arizona primaries: What will Daniel McCarthy's primary vote be, and what will it mean for McSally?
The teacher says yes, the pundit has his doubts. Also: Will the court strike down some of the state ballot initiatives? How much can be squeezed into a 100-word summary?
Does McSally have anything to fear from McCarthy? Will lack of competition leave Mark Kelly unprepared?
Do Republicans have to stick with Trump through the 2020 election? What effect will coronavirus and the Black Lives Matter movement have?
Forrest Radarian joins the podcast to talk about the possibility of returning to the classroom in the fall, Arizona state standards, testing, and how we should re-orient the goals of public education. Forrest is a high school science teacher with over ten years of experience in Arizona public schools.
Does the state legislature need to return this year, and if so, what do they need to accomplish under the circumstances? How will the pandemic affect the outcome of legislative races heading into 2020?
Also discussed: the Phoenix Suns of the '90s.
Given the uncertain pandemic conditions ahead of the November election, should states shift to all mail-in voting? Should legislatures be voting electronically? Will Arizona allow ballot initiatives to collect signatures online?
Will the economic stimulus bill make a significant difference for workers and businesses? What else could we do? Can the economy bounce back after the curve starts to fall?
What if anything will indicate that it's safe to resume normal interactions and economic activity? What will be the political consequences of Covid-19 and the response?
Also: Why Jordan is the GOAT
Sean McCarthy from the Arizona Tax Research Association joins the podcast to break down some issues related to Arizona school finance. We talk about the funding formula and school choice, as well as emerging trends like declining district enrollment numbers and the rising cost of the state's retirement system.
Are Sanders and Trump two sides of the same populist coin? What would be the down ballot effect in Arizona of a Sanders nomination?
Also: The most important bill before the Arizona state legislature.
Will having a ban on sanctuary cities on the ballot help Trump and Republicans in Arizona? What are the prospects of larger immigration reform?
Are the state's demographics moving in a Democratic direction? What about continuing fights over vouchers and education funding?
Where will they spend all that dough? What should be the priorities of education funding? Will the upcoming election politics affect how the legislature does business?
If Biden still has the stutter he said he had as a child, should he be more open about it? Insight from John Robb, a trial lawyer who deals with the same issue.
The origins and founding principles of American conservatism. Why was it triumphant during the 1980's? Does it still exist? Does it have a future?
Does the evidence support the Democrats' charges? Is this what the Founders intended?
This episode also includes two short segments on Arizona issues, starting at minute-marker 34:00: 1) Is there a compromise on Airbnb regulations? 2) What does it mean to have a higher bond rating?
Are Republicans ignoring the evidence? Are Democrats too certain? Will technology and markets solve the problem?
And other education issues: Prop 123 ruling; improving working conditions for teachers.
Bonus segment: Will the Phoenix Suns make the playoffs this year?
Including a quick-fire round of questions on Syria, impeachment, and the Democratic presidential primary.
Is Ukraine enough? What other evidence is necessary? Can the partisan divide be bridged?
Joe DeMenna is a lobbyist with experience representing medical marijuana dispensaries in Arizona. He is former executive director of the Arizona Dispensaries Association, and serves on the newly established state medical marijuana testing advisory council.
We talk about challenges and opportunities facing the marijuana industry, as well as the recreational marijuana ballot initiative that may go to Arizona voters in 2020. Why did the 2016 initiative fail, and what's different about the Smart and Safe Arizona Act? Will the state legislature try to preempt this initiative and pass a recreational law themselves? We also touch on national policy issues like the SAFE Banking Act moving through Congress right now.
Was there a justification to expand the court? Was the nominating commission stacked? Is Bill Montgomery qualified?
Does Phoenix government have a legitimacy problem due to small voter turnout in elections? Why doesn't the Valley have a good public transportation system? Should pension debt be prioritized?
(Now failed)Propositions 105 and 106 are discussed in this episode, along with the big-picture city issues they tried to address.
Tom Collins is executive director of the Arizona Citizens Clean Election Commission. On this episode, we discuss the history of legislative redistricting in Arizona and how the process will unfold following the 2020 census. We also talk about the potential Arizona implications of a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to allow partisan gerrymandering.
Did the Mueller report find collusion? Did it find obstruction of justice? What does it mean for the Democrats' efforts to impeach Trump? Can we come together to protect the integrity of our elections?
What effect is Trump having on political norms? Is there a way to restore them? How should other Republicans respond?
Why should we care about space exploration? Is a Space Force necessary for our national defense? What policies would best sustain space exploration into the future? Will science survive our cultural wars?
How far is the Trump administration willing to go? What is Iran trying to achieve by lashing out? Where is Congress?
Forrest Radarian is a 10-year science teacher. He joins the podcast to talk about why he teaches, how education research might better inform our practices, and whether adding an “Adversity Score” to the SAT will change anything about equity in the U.S. education system. The SAT conversation begins at minute-marker (22:25).
Can the deal maker make a deal on immigration? How will Democrats handle the issue? How is the Democratic primary shaping up?
Is democratic-socialism America’s inevitable future? Does conservatism need to change to compete? Or does it just need more persuasive leaders?
How much more money will K-12 get in next year's budget? What about a 2020 ballot measure?
Is the Mueller report the last word? Is Barr spinning the conclusions? Can Trump shut down the border? Did Ducey backtrack or misstate his position on it?
(The border shutdown conversation begins at minute-marker 12:30)
Is social media a help or a hindrance to a healthy living and a better politics? Is a better balance possible or likely?
Is the president exceeding his authority? Should Congress override his veto? Should the courts, if Congress doesn't?
Tax conformity, budget priorities, repeal of safety fee, sales tax referendum: How will it all come together?
Is the country ready for a European-style healthcare overhaul? Do Republicans have an alternative?
Is Ducey's pragmatic problem solving a winning formula for Republicans? Does Kelli Ward becoming party chair threaten that?
Trump mulls declaring a national emergency while McConnell sits on the sidelines.
Will the Arizona legislature refer a tax increase to the ballot over Ducey's objection?
Oregon-based defense attorney and former public defender John Robb returns to the podcast to discuss the First Step Act.
Does the new federal law represent an accelerating trend toward criminal justice reform?
What are the potential consequences? What would be the most effective next steps?
Do we now only have two branches of government? What could the Senate and the House do to recover their authority?
Will the Democrats impeach Trump? What would it take for the Republicans to convict?
We discuss three different ideas for education reform in Arizona.
1) K-12 testing: How do we reduce the amount of testing, but still hold students and schools accountable?
2) Higher education (18:00): How do we increase accessibility of the college degree?
3) Charter schools (25:00): Do we need charter school reform? If so, could it be done in a way that keeps the current benefits for students?
Did Trump kill McSally's chances? What will the national political scene look like for the next few years? Did #RedForEd make a difference in Arizona?
Matt Emerson returns to the Political Notebook for a reflection on the life of one of the great figures in U.S. military history. General Ulysses S. Grant won the Civil War for the Union and served as president during the tumultuous period of Reconstruction. How did an underachieving young man get thrust onto the bright lights of history? What made him such a brilliant general? What were his guiding principles? Why is he sometimes seen as a bad president even though he kept the country in one piece in the aftermath of the Civil War?
The themes that emerge from this historical discussion are immediately relevant to life and politics today.
The conversation stems from the biography "Grant" by Ron Chernow: (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/311248/grant-by-ron-chernow/9780143110637/)
Feedback?
Email: RobbPodcast@gmail.com
The Arizona Supreme Court released the full opinion on Invest in Ed. Was the decision correct on the law? Was there something fishy about the way it went down?
A conversation about U.S. foreign policy over the last two years. Is Trump screwing things up, or is a naked assertion of American interests clearer and better?
Sinema was scripted, McSally was gaining ground in the debate until she blew it at the end. But we spent much of this podcast talking about Trump and the state of our national politics.
Moses Sanchez is running to be the next Mayor of Phoenix. We sit down for a wide ranging discussion of city issues: economic development, city finances, the proposed tax on marijuana dispensaries, policing, homelessness, sports stadiums, and the light rail.
What are Martha McSally, Kyrsten Sinema, Doug Ducey, and David Garcia doing right in their campaigns so far? What are they doing wrong? What are they missing?
The Arizona race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is set for November. Kathy Hoffman(D)is a speech therapist running on her experience working with kids in the classroom. Frank Riggs (R) is campaigning on his business and political experience. We talk about the role of Superintendent, as well as the education issues brought to the table by the candidates during their first debate broadcast by PBS and the Arizona Clean Elections Commission.
The Arizona Supreme Court decided to kick Invest in Ed off the ballot. Was the decision justified? What will be the effect on the November elections? What's next for education funding in Arizona?
Robert Robb provides analysis of the Arizona primary races for Governor and U.S. Senate. Will the Democrats' early attacks against Martha McSally pay off? Will courting the Trump vote end up hurting the Republican Senate nominee in the general? Is David Garcia making too many mistakes to survive?
Beth Lewis and Dawn Penich-Thacker of the education group Save Our Schools join the podcast to talk about their efforts to defeat the expansion of vouchers in Arizona. Thanks to their referendum campaign, the voucher expansion law will be on the ballot this November as Prop. 305.
Tom Collins is the executive director of the Citizens Clean Elections Commission in Arizona. We talk about the legal functions of the commission, the rationale behind its existence, and the current effort to limit its independence. At the end of the podcast, we debate the legacy of LeBron James.
Arizona realtors are pushing a ballot initiative to ban a sales tax on services. How might this affect the bigger picture of taxation and revenue? Will anyone (besides tax policy wonks) care enough to seriously oppose the initiative?
An analysis of two more Arizona ballot initiatives: Outlaw Dirty Money, and Clean Energy for a Healthy Arizona
Is there room for other political parties in the U.S.? Will an independent run for president in 2020?
What will be Justice Kennedy's legacy? Will McConnell succeed in jamming through a replacement?
Danny Robb talks about government contracts during the Space Race, the positive externalities of exploration, and the existential reasons to keep exploring. This is the second of a two-episode series. The previous episode is about the history of European exploration.
Danny Robb joins the podcast to talk about the history of exploration. How did public-private partnerships encourage the continuation of European exploration of the Americas? Part 1 looks at the politics of European exploration. Part 2 will look at the politics of the Space Race, and the future of space exploration.
Does #RedforEd have a second act? Did Doug Ducey steal the education issue? What's up with the Invest in Education initiative?
Skepticism about Ducey's pay proposal for teachers. Getting rid of the frustrations with dealing with healthcare.
What does the churn in the Trump White House mean for the negotiations with North Korea and trade with China? Will Trump fire Mueller?
Is there a path forward for more funding for K-12 education and teacher pay that doesn't involve a strike? Would a strike help or hurt the cause?
A review of current politics: What are Democratic prospects in Arizona's congressional races? The changing Trump effect on the Ward-McSally primary. Is Ducey in trouble? Why can't millennials stand Trump?
Is there really such a thing as common sense gun-control? Will Trump make a difference?
A shoutout to leaders who exemplify Arizona: Jon Kyl, Alfredo Gutierrez, Jerry Colangelo, Lou Witzeman
Was the release of the Nunes memo necessary or irresponsible? Is there a pathway to legalization for dreamers that goes around Trump?
A conversation with Richard de Uriarte, longtime Arizona journalist and political observer.
Topics: Trump and the media; the changing politics of Arizona and Phoenix
Who's to blame for the government shutdown? Republicans? Democrats? Or the filibuster rule?
Is there still hope for a deal providing legal status for Dreamers?
Will we just get a replay as the new deadline approaches?
Arizona lobbyists Kevin DeMenna and Joe DeMenna join the podcast to talk about how lobbying works, the use of technology in political strategy, the changing usefulness of polling data, and the political landscape in Arizona.
What happened to reducing income taxes to as close to zero as possible? Will what Ducey proposed on education change the debate?
Defense attorney (and older brother) John Robb joins the podcast to talk about his experience as public defender in Portland, how it shaped his political views, and what can be done to improve the criminal justice system.
Why did so many great leaders arise in the founding generation, and why can't we produce them today?
What does conservatism mean these days? Can Democrats get what they want in the federal budget?
We get a flood of social media information, but what do we really know? How much obstruction amounts to obstruction of justice?
How can Trump get away with what he says and does? Will the Trump style become the new norm in politics? Can Sinema really avoid running against Trump in the Arizona Senate race?
Will Arizonans get to vote on vouchers? How can we keep good teachers in the classroom?
Was Tuesday's election a Trump referendum? Will tax reform pass?(10:00) And honoring our father and grandfather on Veterans Day (23:50).
Are the Russians still having success in inflaming political discord in the United States?
Can Republicans walk the tight rope between supporting Trump on policy and disassociating themselves with Trump's behavior?