Palisades Gold Radio: Recent Episodes
Collin Kettell
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Peter Carlin to the show. Peter Carlin is Commodity Broker, Trader, and Author. The discussion opens with the extreme volatility in global energy markets, where the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions are creating severe logistical bottlenecks. Carlin explains that the real crisis is not crude oil supply per se, but a mismatch between the sour crude grades needed by Western refineries and the sweet crude that is more readily available.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being heavily drawn down, particularly its sour component, to feed refineries and supply Europe, while refinery utilization rates in America are running unsustainably high, threatening system integrity. He notes that the situation is fluid and that any return to normal is unlikely; the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted, with the US military presence in the Gulf diminished and Iran successfully exporting oil to China, settling in renminbi via alternative payment systems.
The conversation shifts to gold and currencies. Carlin observes that gold’s recent price action is linked to the apparent disappearance of a distressed seller in the Gulf, now that loadings have resumed. He sees the yen’s weakness as a key barometer for gold, arguing that intervention cannot save the Japanese currency, and a sovereign debt crisis there would trigger contagion, driving investors toward gold and equities. He advises against chasing strength and recommends buying gold on weakness, cautioning that the public tends to do the opposite.
Silver, while volatile, remains a leveraged play on fear but requires extreme caution due to professional traders dominating the market. Finally, Carlin shares the story behind his book, “A Pocketbook of Gold,” co-authored with the legendary Jim Sinclair, who famously called the 1970s gold bull market and the 2011 peak. The book, now available as a PDF, distills Sinclair’s trading wisdom and serves as a survival manual for monetary turmoil. Carlin emphasizes the importance of disciplined, patient trading over speculative home runs, a lesson drawn from decades of market experience.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:10 – Gulf Conflict and Hormuz
00:03:42 – Oil Logistics and Shipping
00:09:27 – Shale & Refining & SPR
00:14:07 – Economic Picture & Supply
00:19:20 – Geopolitical Shifts in Gulf
00:24:14 – Gold Devaluation Strategy
00:27:10 – Trading Crude Oil Markets
00:30:20 – Chinese Payment Systems
00:35:15 – Yen Intervention and Debt
00:43:40 – Debasement & Markets
00:51:12 – Silver Thesis
00:54:30 – Pocketbook of Gold
Guest Links:
Book: https://www.apocketbookofgold.com/
Peter D. Carlin has spent the past 20 years as a commodity broker and trader, having worked for such firms as ICAP, NatSource Tullett and Eurobrokers. He has also worked as a consultant for several multinationals in the field of energy risk management. As a journalist, Mr. Carlin has written for the Financial Times and Bloomberg and has published articles for Jane’s Defence, Money Week and numerous other journals. He regularly appears on the BBC, CNN, and NBC as a commentator.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Doug is a Retired U.S. Army Colonel and Decorated Combat Veteran. He offers a stark assessment that the Middle East conflict is fundamentally a Jewish war with no vital strategic interest for the United States, describing it as already regional and increasingly merging with other global flashpoints. He argues that the recent halt in hostilities is merely a pause, not a resolution, as no underlying issues have been settled.
The conversation highlights how three conflicts—Ukraine, the Gulf region, and the cold war with China—are converging into a larger, dangerous alignment of Russia, China, and Iran against US and Israeli interests. Macgregor warns that Iran has effectively weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential Houthi blockade could cripple Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil, threatening the existence of Gulf states unless they expel American forces.
He contends that the US has been militarily defeated by Iran’s strategic use of new technology and space-based surveillance, yet political pressure from Zionist billionaires and the Israel lobby prevents President Trump from disengaging. This dynamic, he argues, will likely restart the bombing campaigns.
The discussion shifts to the profound economic implications, with Macgregor predicting severe market fragility, potential bank runs, and even a depression. Against this backdrop, he sees gold becoming more valuable than ever, propelled by central bank buying, de-dollarization, and monstrous US debt. He cites predictions of gold reaching $13,000 to $15,000 per ounce, possibly sooner than 2031 if conflict reignites.
Macgregor reveals his personal investment philosophy of holding cash and precious metals exclusively, emulating J.D. Rockefeller’s strategy of maintaining liquidity to capitalize on distressed opportunities. He praises Palisades Goldcorp for its strong cash position and strategic investments in gold, uranium, and other critical minerals, positioning it for substantial upside in a deteriorating global economy. He concludes by emphasizing the decline of US hegemony and the urgent, yet ignored, need to accept a new world order.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:22 – Israel Iran Conflict Update
00:03:02 – Three Merging Global Conflicts
00:09:08 – China Cold War Risks
00:12:28 – Houthi Implications
00:14:30 – A Jewish War
00:23:36 – Conflicts & Impacts on Oil
00:30:44 – Joining Palisades Gold Board
00:32:37 – Gold Price Predictions 2031
00:38:12 – Gold Vs. Aliens/Other Commodities
00:44:41 – Doug’s Personal Finance Strategy
00:48:09 – Wrap Up and Resources
Guest Links:
Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com
X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor
Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@macgregorwarriordiplomacy
Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/
Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.
Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.
Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.
In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.
Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Martin Armstrong to the show. Martin Armstrong is CEO and Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd. Martin argues that the conflict with Iran was a strategic miscalculation driven by Neocons and Benjamin Netanyahu’s flawed strategy of decapitation leadership, which historically never works. Contrary to assumptions, Iran is highly organized, has planned for this war for a decade, and is playing “3D chess” by targeting the Gulf states’ financial stability through attacks on Dubai and by threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy is designed not just to raise oil prices but to trigger a sovereign debt crisis in the Gulf, which took on massive debts when oil prices collapsed during COVID.
Armstrong connects this to the Ukraine conflict, where he describes Volodymyr Zelensky as deliberately escalating to draw NATO into a broader war, attacking Russian energy facilities and Iranian ships to merge the two conflicts. This geopolitical turmoil is occurring amid a steep global recession expected to bottom between 2026 and 2028. He identifies Japan and the Middle East as the most at-risk regions for a sovereign debt crisis, while Europe is already economically crippled, with pension funds wiped out by years of negative interest rates. This desperation is why leaders like Macron seek war.
Despite the short-term bearish outlook for metals, Armstrong’s computer models forecast a strong bull market from 2027 into 2032, with gold potentially reaching $7,000 to $8,000, possibly spiking to $11,000. This corresponds with his prediction that 2032 will mark the collapse of republican forms of government, driven by systemic corruption. He also expects oil prices to rise due to physical supply shortages, fueling a stagflationary environment where traditional Keynesian economics fails. Capital fleeing war zones will continue flowing into the U.S., supporting both stocks and gold.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:33 – Guest Introduction and Background
00:01:08 – Iran Conflict Analysis
00:03:40 – Netanyahu Strategy and Failures
00:08:47 – Iran Geopolitical Strategy
00:12:00 – Historical Biases in Conflicts
00:21:10 – Ukraine War and Zelensky
00:28:00 – Sovereign Debt and Europe
00:35:00 – US Dollar and Capital Flows
00:42:37 – Gold Price Predictions
00:46:00 – 2032 Political Collapse Forecast
01:00:00 – Oil Prices and Stagflation
01:10:00 – Economic Theories Critique
01:14:30 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://armstrongeconomics.com
X: https://x.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
“In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.”
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Joel Salatin to the show. Joel Salatin is a self described Christian Libertarian Environmentalist Capitalist Lunatic Farmer. Salatin describes a deeply distorted US agricultural landscape, where massive oversupply of corn and soybeans coexists with a historic cattle shortage. Half of domestic corn goes to ethanol, not food, and China’s pursuit of self-sufficiency is eroding soybean exports, yet government bailouts keep older, risk-averse farmers locked into unprofitable cropping cycles. This parasitic dependence on subsidies props up unneeded production while stifling the market signals that would otherwise push farmers toward cattle, a switch he demonstrated could be highly profitable and capital-efficient.
The fertilizer and energy shocks from Middle East conflicts further expose the fragility of input-dependent farming. Salatin noted that rising fuel costs drive farm bankruptcies and accelerate land consolidation into the hands of patient capital, including family offices and billionaires. He emphasized that genuine food security is not threatened by lack of production but by water scarcity and desertification driven by vegetative loss from overgrazing and continuous cropping. Instead, he champions a biological paradigm of farming that builds soil through cover crops, intensive rotational grazing, and on-farm composting to eliminate synthetic inputs.
His own Polyface Farms exemplifies this model, integrating livestock, forest, and direct marketing to create a resilient, local carbon economy. Salatin contends that the path forward lies not in propping up the failing industrial system but in entrepreneurial adoption of regenerative practices that mimic nature’s nutrient cycles and restore hydrological balance.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:51 – State of North American Agriculture
00:02:04 – Financial Struggles and Bailouts
00:03:02 – Cattle Herd Shortage Issues
00:03:55 – China Food Self-Sufficiency Plans
00:08:26 – Transitioning Soybean Farms to Cattle
00:11:40 – Conversion Costs and Payback
00:18:49 – Bailouts and Market Disconnect
00:24:20 – Screw Worm and Cattle Imports
00:29:00 – Localized Fertilizer and Carbon Cycles
00:35:15 – Impact of Fertilizer Shortages
00:41:23 – Water Issues and Vegetation
00:45:55 – Corn To Soybeans
00:47:00 – Energy Impacts on Farmers
00:55:00 – Water Rights & Investors
01:03:10 – Polyface Farms Operations
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.thelunaticfarmer.com
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/polyfacefarm
X: https://x.com/JoelSalatin
Joel Salatin, 68, dubs himself a Christian libertarian environmentalist capitalist lunatic farmer. Admirers hail him as the world’s most famous farmer, the high priest of the pasture, and Virginia’s most eclectic thinker since Thomas Jefferson. Detractors label him a bio-terrorist, Typhoid Mary, charlatan, and starvation advocate.
Armed with high school and college debate trophies, 16 published books, and a thriving multi-generational family farm, Salatin draws on decades of food, farming, and fantasy to captivate global audiences. Equally at home herding cows or keynoting for Wall Street CEOs, he covers profitable regenerative farming techniques alongside cultural debates like orthodoxy versus heresy.
A staple on radio and podcasts for preppers, homesteaders, ecological farmers, and foodies, Salatin blends practical, can-do entrepreneurial solutions with passionate sustainability advocacy.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef is the Founder of Schachter Asset Management Inc. Josef clarifies that the current energy market tightness is not a crude oil shortage but a severe refining capacity problem, particularly impacting Asia. While US production has surged to 24 million barrels daily, allowing for exports, a lack of refined products in Asia has driven local prices to the equivalent of over $150 per barrel. He attributes the volatility to geopolitical tensions, noting that oil prices swung from the high $90s to $67 before rebounding into the mid-$80s on renewed conflict fears.
Schachter outlines three potential scenarios for oil prices. If peace talks succeed and the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab reopen, prices could fall back below $70, aided by China’s massive strategic reserves and floating storage. If the conflict remains contained, a trading range between $70 and $94 is likely. However, a significant escalation involving Iran and key shipping lanes could push prices past the previous high of $119, potentially reaching $141.50. He warns that such a sustained spike above $120 would trigger severe global economic headwinds, combining with AI-driven job losses and high government debt to potentially cause a deep recession.
From an investment perspective, Schachter sees energy producers as undervalued, trading on long-term price assumptions of $60-$65 oil despite his forecast of $80 average for the year and $90 in 2027. He highlights Canada as a particularly attractive region due to a new, supportive political stance toward fossil fuels, vast undrilled reserves, and discounted valuations compared to US peers. He advises that higher prices will economically transform lower-tier drilling inventory into highly profitable assets, offering significant upside for investors across the energy and service sectors.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:42 – Current energy market conditions
00:02:46 – Crude oil supply analysis
00:04:23 – Refined product shortages
00:09:28 – Floating storage discussion
00:14:40 – Oil Shortage Debunking Thesis
00:17:47 – Dire Straits, Situation
00:21:08 – Asia refining crisis
00:25:42 – Asian Demand & Implications
00:29:05 – Recession and price scenarios
00:31:58 – Oil producer investment opportunities
00:35:48 – Canada energy sector outlook
00:41:10 – Other Opportunities?
00:46:47 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://schachterenergyreport.ca
Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, $100 off the first year of our subscription, use coupon code “POD100”
https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/
Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.
Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.
Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.
Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is an author, Founder of 321 Gold, and a former Marine Fighter Pilot. Moriarty outlines a deeply concerning global landscape, arguing that recent escalations—including Ukraine’s attack on Iranian vessels and Saudi Arabia’s strike on the Houthis—have rapidly transformed regional conflicts into what could become World War III. He contends that Israel is the primary driver of the war against Iran, with the United States under Donald Trump co-opting the conflict, potentially under duress from compromising information.
Despite the severe supply disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi refineries, oil prices have paradoxically fallen. Moriarty attributes this to widespread manipulation by governments draining strategic petroleum reserves and intervening in paper markets to suppress costs, a tactic he warns is unsustainable and risks permanently damaging storage infrastructure. He believes all the headwinds that previously kept prices low have become tailwinds, setting the stage for a sudden, explosive price spike that could devastate the global economy.
On precious metals, Moriarty notes gold’s resilience, referencing a forecast that it could trade between $4,000 and $6,000 this year due to currency debasement, though he emphasizes that manipulation exists across all markets. He advocates holding physical metals as insurance against chaos and sees extraordinary value in junior mining stocks, which he believes are historically undervalued relative to commodity prices. While acknowledging the high-risk nature of junior investments, he stresses that outsized gains from a few winners can offset losses.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:29 – War Escalation and WW3 Risks
00:04:40 – Oil Price Manipulation Explained
00:10:00 – Peace Talks and Hidden Agendas
00:14:32 – Infrastructure Strikes Analysis
00:19:22 – Oil Market Headwinds to Tailwinds
00:24:00 – SPR Depletion and Risks
00:27:00 – Crack Spreads and True Prices
00:32:08 – Perfect Storm in Energy Markets
00:35:36 – Imminent Petroleum Shortages
00:38:21 – Opportunities for Oil Producers
00:42:13 – Gold Prices and Investing
00:47:53 – Precious Metals Miners Outlook
00:54:32 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.321gold.com
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Recorded on: July 21, 2026
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Lobo Tiggre to the show. Lobo Tiggre is the Author and Founder of the Independent Speculator. The discussion centers on the current state of precious metals and commodities, with Tiggre offering a fundamentally driven, contrarian perspective. He asserts that while gold’s long-term value proposition remains spectacular, driven by de-dollarization and central bank buying, the market is at a critical juncture following a significant correction. He does not believe the bottom is confirmed, suggesting a potential cyclical low could be sub-$3,000 gold, and he is holding cash for such an opportunity rather than chasing current prices.
This patience extends to gold miners, where he acknowledges compelling value but warns that stocks will not be immune to further drawdowns in the metal, advocating for a “buy low” strategy to maximize returns. Tiggre expresses increasing fondness for silver, noting its dual monetary and industrial drivers, though he cautions about political risk in key jurisdictions like Mexico.
On energy, he remains very bullish on oil long-term due to understated supply disruptions but is not chasing the recent price rebound, preferring to sell puts to acquire positions at lower levels. He sees a potential inverse opportunity in copper, where escalating war fears could create an oversold condition in a market with strong structural supply constraints. The conversation highlights uranium as a particularly compelling setup, with the spot price lagging the consistently rising long-term contract price, suggesting an upward snap is likely. Tiggre advises that in a major market drawdown, the safest and best companies become obvious bargains, eliminating the need for high-risk speculation. His overarching strategy is a barbell approach, balancing blue-chip producers with higher-risk, high-reward exploration stocks, all while waiting for truly low-risk entry points.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:37 – Gold Value Proposition
00:03:37 – Market Bottom Analysis
00:04:44 – Bull Market Debate
00:08:19 – Price Levels and Drawdowns
00:11:10 – Central Bank Buying Durability
00:14:57 – Gold Miners Value Proposition
00:19:10 – Portfolio Allocation Strategy
00:23:59 – Mining Developers Analysis
00:26:40 – Silver and Silver Miners
00:29:46 – Oil and Gas Sector
00:34:10 – Copper Market Dynamics
00:35:14 – Oil/Copper Shopping List?
00:40:03 – Uranium Investment Setup
00:45:19 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.com
X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Steve Hanke back to the show. Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. Hanke highlights the two major wars—the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the Ukraine war—as critical disruptors of global commodity flows. He notes that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with Iran controlling it, and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea chokepoint, severely constricting crude and refined product supplies. Russia’s cutoff of diesel exports and domestic fuel shortages compound the strain. Oil markets are in backwardation, with spot prices above futures, signaling dangerously low inventories that have cushioned prices so far but are nearing depletion. Hanke warns that once physical inventories run out, oil prices could spike dramatically, potentially later this summer. He advises going long on oil, especially major producers, as a straightforward trade for most investors.
On gold, Hanke maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a peak around $6,000 per ounce based on historical ratios to real disposable income. He attributes recent pullbacks to dollar strength and rising interest rates but sees central bank buying as a fundamental driver. He also discusses the pressure on the Fed to monetize debt, which could fuel inflation and support gold. The conversation shifts to the broader commodity supercycle, fueled by deglobalization, underinvestment, and the need for larger precautionary inventories. Copper and tungsten are identified as clear bullish plays due to supply deficits. Hanke notes that high diesel prices are squeezing mining and agriculture, potentially raising output prices. He also touches on dollarization, recommending developing countries adopt the U.S. dollar to expand its use rather than de-dollarize.
The interview concludes with Hanke emphasizing the importance of money supply growth as the key determinant of nominal GDP and inflation.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:05 – Key Developments on Radar
00:04:58 – Oil Predictions vs Reality
00:10:53 – Inventory and Flow Analysis
00:14:40 – Crack Spreads and Refining
00:16:27 – Demand Destruction Dynamics
00:20:51 – Anticipated Oil Price Spike
00:22:32 – Long Oil Opportunity
00:27:37 – Gold Bull Market Outlook
00:29:38 – Central Bank Buying Drivers
00:45:54 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/steve_hanke
Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com
Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260
Amazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Interest-Waiting-Controversies-Additions/dp/3031633970
E-Mail: mailto:hanke@jhu.edu
Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel.
In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998.
He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro.
Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia.
Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes.
Prof. Hanke and his wife, Liliane, reside in Baltimore and Paris.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is a Commodity Market Research Specializing in Oil and Gas. Johnston describes an unprecedented period of volatility in oil markets, where the supply-demand balance swung radically within a single month. Following a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, a surge of previously stranded tankers created a temporary mini-glut, flipping market structures from severe backwardation into contango. However, this glut proved fleeting as inbound empty tankers, initially driven by the most risk-tolerant owners, have dried up, leaving Gulf loadings constrained by available shipping capacity. Consequently, supply is tightening aggressively again.
The most significant factor absorbing the supply shock is China, which swung its crude imports down by five million barrels per day without clear economic damage domestically. Johnston explores speculative explanations, including massive refined product stock releases, a coal-to-petrochemical feedstock switch, or a geopolitical understanding with the US. He also suggests China may be using the crisis as a successful dry run for weathering a potential blockade in a Taiwan conflict scenario. This swing, totaling roughly half a billion barrels, dwarfs the collective releases from IEA member states. Beyond crude, the refined products market, particularly diesel, is critically tight. Diesel crack spreads have soared to staggering levels, driven by drone attacks damaging Russian refineries, prior damage in the Middle East, and China slashing product exports. Johnston clarifies that strategic petroleum reserves function as a supply boost, not passive inventory, and that operational tank minimums at hubs like Cushing primarily affect regional price differentials to discourage exports, not trigger infinite crude spikes.
He concludes that the overriding vulnerability is refining capacity, which is easy to target and hard to defend, making North American facilities a potentially valuable geopolitical safe haven in the current drone warfare era.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:29 – Guest Rory Johnson Introduction
00:01:06 – Energy Supply Demand Dynamics
00:04:30 – Mini-Glut and Market Flip
00:07:45 – Hormuz Traffic and Tankers
00:10:44 – China Import Swing Explained
00:15:00 – China Inventory Releases Analyzed
00:20:45 – Western SPR and Inventories
00:25:30 – Commercial vs Strategic Stocks
00:29:00 – Global Oil Deficit Calculation
00:34:00 – Refining Capacity Tightness
00:42:00 – Product Shortages and Prices
00:48:00 – Refinery Investment Outlook
00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/
X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).
Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.
In this special multi-guest episode filmed on the floor of the 2026 Rule Symposium, industry veterans share contrarian views amid a healthy pullback in precious metals. Gold and silver sit 30-50% off highs, creating “fire sale” prices for quality names while central banks quietly stack physical gold and currencies face ongoing debasement.
13 Featured experts: Adrian Day, Rick Rule, Brien Lundin, Dr. Nomi Prins, Tavi Costa, Jeff Phillips, Matthew Piepenberg, Robert Quartermain, Brent Cook, Rob McEwen, Sean Roosen, Shawn Khunkhun, and Willem Middelkoop
Key takeaways:Best setup in years: ultra-low valuations, extreme negative sentiment, cashed-up juniors & developers in safe jurisdictions.
Focus areas: pure-play silver miners, copper (supply deficit + electrification), uranium, permitted gold developers, royalty/prospect generators.
Rick Rule: invest in yourself first—knowledge + relationships beat hot tips.
Long-term secular bull remains intact; producers generate massive free cash flow at current prices; expect M&A.
Volatility is normal—buy quality while fear is high. Perfect primer for resource investors seeking high-conviction ideas from the conference.
Find Out More About Palisades Goldcorp, Canada’s Leading Junior Resource Investment Company:
► Website: https://palisades.ca
Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:35 – Rick Rule – Invest in Yourself
00:04:55 – Brent Cook – Quality Projects
00:07:20 – Jeff Phillips – Healthy Pullback
00:09:44 – Dr. Nomi Prins – Silver & Confidence
00:12:14 – Matt Pipenburg – Buying Opportunities
00:16:54 – Robert Quartermain – Dakota Gold
00:20:03 – Rob McEwen – Macro Commodities Outlook
00:24:45 – Sean Roosen – Liquidity & Energy – Hard Assets
00:30:09 – Shawn Khunkhun – Good Valuations
00:31:52 – Willem Middelkoop – The Big Picture
00:35:00 – Tavi Costa – Rate Hikes & Geopolitical Drivers
00:39:00 – Adrian Day – Sentiment & Opportunity
00:42:09 – Brien Lundin – Debt, Deficits, Metals & Mining
00:43:05 – Rick Rule Wrap Up
Stijn Schmitz comes to you from the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida. Rick Rule begins by emphasizing the importance of investing in oneself through knowledge and relationships, arguing that this foundational step precedes successful capital allocation. He notes that the easy money in commodities has been made, but the “sure money” lies ahead, particularly in gold. Rule explains that gold maintains purchasing power, having increased at 8% compounded nominally in US dollars over 26 years, while he predicts the US dollar could lose 75% of its purchasing power in the next decade. He highlights that precious metals currently represent only 0.5% of US savings assets, far below the four-decade mean of 2%, suggesting a potential fourfold demand increase if reversion occurs.
Turning to oil, Rule describes a structural supply deficit due to chronic underinvestment in sustaining capital, amounting to roughly a trillion and a half dollars. He contrasts this with temporary disruptions, warning that the coming shortage will require massive capital input and cannot be quickly resolved. On silver, he shares his recent speculative strategy: he sold silver after a hyperbolic price spike, reallocating to physical gold, oil stocks, and silver equities, which he views as offering better risk-reward profiles. Rule also discusses the mining sector, cautioning that rising input costs
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:25 – Investing in Yourself
00:02:10 – Contrarian Investing Approach
00:03:50 – Gold Purchasing Power
00:06:00 – Gold Market Share Reversion
00:09:20 – Conditions to Sell Gold
00:11:00 – 1970s Inflation Parallels
00:12:30 – Rising Mining Costs
00:15:20 – Palisades Gold Corp
00:16:20 – Junior Mining Optionality
00:21:00 – Silver Speculation Strategy
00:24:50 – Silver Miners Valuation
00:26:20 – Oil Underinvestment Issues
00:37:50 – BattleBank Services
00:43:40 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/@realrickrule
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
Battle Bank: https://battlebank.com
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Dr. Nomi Prins back to the show. Dr. Prins is the Founder of Prinsights Global and she’s a regular writer on her Substack. The discussion opened with Dr. Prins identifying the most significant investment opportunities in a market she sees as distorted by exaggerated paper selling. She argued that silver presents the greatest potential due to a historic disconnect between its heavily traded paper price and a persistent six-year physical supply deficit. Despite price volatility driven by algorithmic and ETF trading, demand for physical ounces from industry, particularly from Asia for solar applications, remains insatiable. Pure-play silver miners, which remain highly profitable even at current price levels, are therefore positioned as attractive opportunities.
The conversation shifted to uranium, where a different dynamic prevails. Uranium prices have held a new, high platform level due to utility companies securing long-term contracts well above the spot price, a sector lacking a significant futures market. Consequently, uranium miners have underperformed the commodity itself, creating a clear re-rating opportunity for stocks. For gold, Dr. Prins highlighted that its bull case is supported by sustained central bank buying, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, as nations seek independence from dollar-based monetary policy. She noted that over the long term, gold has significantly outperformed inflation, purchasing power, and treasuries. With major producers sitting on large cash reserves and facing their own supply constraints, well-managed junior developers in favorable jurisdictions with high-grade assets are becoming prime targets for acquisition, offering significant upside.
On the oil and gas sector, Dr. Prins observed that markets have normalized to a stable trading range after war-related spikes. This stability, combined with the ongoing need to replenish depleted strategic petroleum reserves globally, supports current price levels. She pointed to specific opportunities in regions like South America, where companies are producing the right grade of crude, often offering high dividends to supply U.S. refineries historically reliant on heavier oil. Her firm’s strategy focuses on identifying these macro-driven distortions and vetting junior companies through rigorous analysis of management and jurisdictional stability.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:36 – Market Opportunity Overview
00:02:49 – Uranium Investment Opportunities
00:04:25 – Silver Supply Gap Analysis
00:09:18 – Gold Market Dynamics
00:11:34 – Central Banks and Gold
00:13:13 – Gold Performance vs Inflation
00:14:50 – Junior Miner Selection Criteria
00:15:54 – Oil Market Normalization
00:19:22 – Oil Quality and Investments
00:21:03 – Recommendations
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/nomiprins
Website: https://nomiprins.com
Substack: https://prinsights.substack.com
Dr. Nomi Prins as a Wall Street insider and outspoken advocate for economic reform, Nomi Prins is a leading authority on how the widespread impact of financial systems continues to affect our daily lives. She has spent decades analyzing and investigating economic and financial events at the ground level and meeting with those that shape the world’s geopolitical-economic framework. She continues to break stories by conducting independent research, writing best-selling books, and traversing the globe to share her knowledge and demystify the world of money.
Before becoming a renowned journalist and public speaker, Nomi reached the upper echelons of the financial world where she worked as a managing director at Goldman Sachs, ran the international analytics group as a senior managing director at Bear Stearns in London, was a strategist at Lehman Brothers and an analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. During her time on Wall Street, she grew increasingly aware of and discouraged by the unethical practices that permeated the banking industry. Eventually, she decided enough was enough and became an investigative journalist to shed light on the ways that financial systems are manipulated to serve the interests of an elite few at the expense of everyone else.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa back to the show. Tavi Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital. Tavi outlines a bullish macro view for precious metals, arguing that the recent sell-off in gold and silver presents a compelling accumulation opportunity within a secular bull market. He notes that gold itself is down 25 to 30 percent, while quality producers have corrected 40 to 50 percent, leaving them technically oversold. He favors large, well-established miners such as Agnico Eagle and Newmont as liquid ways to play this window over the next six to twelve months. Silver is also in an accumulation phase, though he cautions against fixating on a single price entry point. Copper, which has remained resilient near all-time highs, is expected to surge dramatically once current headwinds fade, offering significant operating leverage in the mining equities.
Costa emphasizes the strategic role of energy in a resource portfolio, describing it as an efficient hedge for metals investors. He highlights the historically low weighting of energy in the S&P 500 and points to structural demand drivers like data centers, electrification, and onshoring. Natural gas, in his view, is the only near-term solution to meet this demand, given the longer timelines for nuclear or renewables. He sees opportunities in midstream assets and in Latin America, where excess energy supply could attract strategic partnerships. The conversation also touches on agricultural commodities, which Costa believes are consolidating in a pattern similar to oil before its breakout.
Regarding critical minerals, Costa expresses skepticism, calling the sector a “disease” marked by misallocated capital. He warns that institutional money chasing small markets like rare earths often overlooks poor business fundamentals, and he advises focusing instead on copper, gold, and silver, which offer clear structural demand and supply constraints. He distills his investment approach into three pillars: metals and mining, energy, and Latin America. Costa is currently in the process of launching a fund and shares his research on Substack, with a formal announcement expected soon.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:29 – Current Market Opportunities
00:01:04 – Gold and Silver Outlook
00:02:53 – Finding Quality Opportunities
00:06:55 – Oil & Gas Potential
00:09:30 – Natural Gas Demand Drivers
00:12:07 – Critical Minerals
00:14:50 – Copper Highs & Outlook
00:17:17 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/tavicosta
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/otavio-tavi-costa-76368628
Substack: https://tavicosta.substack.com
Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. He invented a macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
Stijn Schmitz interviews Adrian Day at the 2026 Rule Symposium. Adrian Day is CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the EuroPacific Gold Fund. Adrian observes a significant opportunity in the resource sector, noting that gold and silver equities are trading at valuations near all-time lows, compounded by deeply negative sentiment. He points out that bullish sentiment for gold has plummeted to single digits, even hitting zero percent on one occasion, creating what he views as an exceptionally lopsided and contrarian setup. While acknowledging that gold bullion cannot be valued using traditional discounted cash flow models, he argues it is undervalued on an inflation-adjusted basis and relative to global debt and money supply, suggesting the current cycle has a long way to run before any potential overshoot.
Day emphasizes that key indicators for market tops are primarily sentiment-driven, such as overwhelming bullish media coverage, unsolicited stock tips from the public, and lines forming outside bullion dealers. Harder data points include accelerating flows into gold ETFs and the emergence of premiums on physical products. For investors new to or underweight the sector, he recommends buying across the spectrum, highlighting that even the largest, most conservative royalty and streaming companies are trading at historically low multiples. When evaluating junior exploration companies, his focus is overwhelmingly on the quality of the management team and the strength of the balance sheet, with the specific mineral property being the least important factor. He stresses the importance of management with a relevant track record and the presence of large, supportive, long-term shareholders who can ensure access to capital during difficult markets.
For mid-tier producers, he prefers companies with diversified assets in concentrated jurisdictions to mitigate single-mine risk. Briefly touching on other commodities, Day notes that oil and gas stocks have dramatically underperformed the broad market this year and have not retreated significantly from recent highs, though he is waiting for lower entry prices. He also sees potential in thermal coal projects serving Asian markets, where energy security has become a paramount concern.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:36 – Gold Opportunities and Sentiment
00:05:51 – Bull Bear Sentiment Indicators
00:10:05 – Transition to Gold Miners
00:17:06 – Mergers Acquisitions in Mining
00:20:07 – Evaluating Management Teams
00:22:43 – Oil and Gas Outlook
00:27:10 – Thermal Coal Investment Potential
00:28:47 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Gentile to the show. Michael Gentile is Strategic Investor & Co-Founder, Bastion Asset Management. Gentile remains very bullish on precious metals, maintaining a five-to-ten-year investment horizon. He argues that short-term volatility in gold and silver does not alter the long-term macro thesis driven by unassailable U.S. debt levels. With U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion and interest expenses potentially consuming 40% of government revenues, Gentile sees currency debasement as the only path forward, which favors gold. He notes that while central bank buying has driven gold’s rise from $1,350 to over $4,000, mainstream investors still allocate only 1-2% of portfolios to gold, leaving significant room for a second wave of demand that could turbocharge prices.
Gentile highlights a historic opportunity in gold equities, where producers are generating record free cash flow due to expanding margins—from $400 to $2,000 per ounce—while tech company free cash flow dries up. This undervaluation extends to junior miners, where he focuses on resource-stage companies with assets that can realistically become mines. He seeks companies trading at $20-$50 per ounce in the ground that could be acquired for $300-$500 per ounce as majors deploy their high margins. He stresses that most juniors will never become mines, so rigorous asset selection is critical.
Beyond gold, Gentile discussed his first royalty investment in Silver Crown Royalties, attracted by its pure silver focus, cost-of-capital advantage, and ability to monetize byproduct silver from gold mines. He sees copper as having strong long-term supply-demand dynamics but finds better value in junior copper developers with buildable assets. He avoids niche commodities like tungsten due to unpredictable long-term pricing and stays away from short-term trading in oil and gas or fertilizer inputs, preferring deep, broad markets. Gentile announced a European roadshow in October, including a London conference featuring his top 20 portfolio companies.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:05 – Bullish on Precious Metals
00:03:21 – Impact of Middle East Conflict
00:08:53 – US Government Debt Analysis
00:13:48 – Gold Trend & Value
00:15:40 – Gold Producers Opportunity
00:19:12 – Why Juniors Provide Leverage
00:24:52 – Recent Big Investments
00:30:10 – Silver Crown Royalties Position
00:34:47 – Silver Thesis
00:38:42 – Critical Minerals like Tungsten
00:42:33 – Oil and Gas Outlook
00:46:06 – Copper Market Analysis
00:51:15 – Coal and Other Commodities
00:56:21 – Roadshow and Newsletter
Guest Links:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552
Website: https://www.bastion-am.com/
Mining & Metals European Roadshow: https://saturdaymorningmining.subscribepage.io/
Michael Gentile, CFA is Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Bastion Asset Management. Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA)
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Clem Chambers to the show. Clem Chambers is Author, Journalist and Founder/CEO of ADVFN. The discussion begins with current market volatility: gold is down roughly 30% from its January peak, and oil has cratered 40% from its March high. Chambers identifies the AI space as the major action now, though it recently corrected, and sees the previous gold rally as driven by fears of a China-Taiwan conflict, which has likely been postponed. He argues that gold’s price peak roughly a year out from a potential invasion window, and the sacking of Chinese generals suggests the army resisted such plans, removing that immediate geopolitical bid.
He now sees a better floor for gold around $3,500 when inflation, not war, becomes the dominant driver. Chambers emphasizes a transformative global shift: America is abandoning globalization for “re-localization” and must reindustrialize to compete with China, especially in AI. He coins the phrase “electricity is destiny,” noting China has 250% more electricity, but America is now having a “Sputnik moment” and must go all-in on energy and AI or lose democracy. This energy build-out—nuclear, fossil fuels, infrastructure—creates massive long-term investment themes, though lags and government intervention pose risks. He is particularly bullish on platinum and palladium, noting tiny annual supply, Russian and South African geopolitical risks, and that much of the production is destroyed by catalytic converters, leaving no net accumulation.
On precious metals, Chambers advises a 2.5–5% portfolio allocation, dollar-cost averaging into physical gold or ETFs, but warns miners behave irrationally and are difficult to understand. He also notes gold has a small inflationary overhang from 3,200 tons of annual mine supply. For viewers, Chambers highlights his free investment platform ADVFN, which offers real-time UK and soon US pricing with advanced tools, and his Substack and YouTube channel where he shares contrarian market thinking. The interview closes with the reminder that active economic participation puts investors on the upward leg of the K-shaped economy.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:03 – Market Volatility and A.I.
00:09:40 – US-China Economies & Taiwan
00:14:15 – Reindustrialization Strategy
00:22:10 – Reserve Currency Debate
00:28:17 – Gold Supply Inflation
00:35:14 – Energy Dominance Thesis
00:40:09 – Platinum/Palladium Plays
00:43:30 – Energy Complex & Peace Deals
00:51:07 – WTI Price & Disruptions
00:57:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Investment Platform: https://anewfn.com/
Website: https://www.clemchambers.com/
X: https://x.com/@clemchambers
LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/clem-chambers-756145196
Clem Chambers is an author, journalist and founder/former CEO of ADVFN, Europe’s leading stocks and markets website. He is General Partner of Ylem Capital clem@ylem.capital. A sought after media commentator, Clem is a regular guest on major television networks including CNBC (US, Europe, Asia, Arabia), Al-Jazeera, BBC, BNN and Fox News. He has recently started ANewFN, providing tools for private investors.
Clem writes for Seeking Alpha, Forbes and Engineering and Technology magazine and has written Nikkei BP, the Gulf News and The Scotsman as well as specialist trading and business publications Risk AFRICA, Traders and Your Trading Edge. He has written investment columns for Wired Magazine, which described him as a ‘Market Maven’.
Clem’s first thriller novel ‘The Armageddon Trade’ was published in 2009, followed by ‘The Twain Maxim’ in 2010, ‘Kusanagi’ in 2011 and ‘The First Horseman’ in 2012. The fifth installment in the Jim Evans Saga, ‘The Shrine’, was published in January 2016 as an Amazon Kindle single.
In November 2018, Clem won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street UK Institutional Press Awards. The awards recognise outstanding performance in institutional financial services reporting in the UK.
He was shortlisted in 2016 and 2017 as Columnist of the Year (Business Media) in the PPA Awards for his column in E&T Magazine, The Institution Of Engineering & Technology, and in June 2017 won silver in the Tabbie Awards for his Money and Markets column in the same publication.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doug Casey to the show. Doug Casey is a Bestselling Author, Speculator, Founder of Casey Research, and Voluntarist Philosopher. The conversation opens with an analysis of the disconnect between geopolitical turmoil, specifically the disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and equity markets trading near all-time highs. Casey argues the recent de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran is likely temporary, as the core dispute between Israel and Iran remains unresolved. Despite this volatility, he remains bullish on oil, favoring oil and gas stocks due to their low representation in the market and high dividend yields, a sentiment he backs with his own investment strategy.
Casey introduces his thesis of a “Greater Depression,” a period of declining real standards of living masked by a debt-fueled financial economy. He contrasts the struggling real economy, burdened by consumer and government debt, with the booming stock market, suggesting the current stability is unsustainable. Looking at long-term trends, he posits that all commodities historically trend toward zero in real terms as technology advances. However, he notes that commodities are currently the cheapest asset class compared to grossly overvalued stocks, bonds, and real estate, making them especially attractive.
The discussion shifts to gold and silver, which Casey treats primarily as savings vehicles, noting the 55-year bull market is still intact. While he believes gold is no longer a great speculation at current prices, he finds mining stocks to be exceptionally undervalued, driven by industry-wide unpopularity and neglect from institutional investors. He extends this bullishness to agricultural commodities and fertilizers, deeming corn ultra-cheap and noting natural gas, a key input for urea, is also priced at a bargain in North America. For speculation, he expresses a strong preference for private placements and warrants in smaller, entrepreneur-led companies. The conversation concludes with a grim outlook for U.S. fiscal health, predicting rising interest rates driven by unsustainable deficits and a bond market that will eventually slip the Federal Reserve’s control.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:02 – Oil Market Geopolitics and Prices
00:06:57 – Oil Inventories and Demand Outlook
00:09:06 – Debt Economy and Greater Depression
00:11:03 – Electrification and Nuclear Future
00:14:27 – Long-term Commodity Price Trends
00:16:21 – Agricultural Commodities Discussion
00:21:34 – Fertilizers and Natural Gas
00:25:30 – Potash, Phosphate, & Sulphur
00:28:21 – Gold and Silver as Savings
00:33:20 – Mining Stocks and Value
00:40:00 – Mining Sector Companies
00:44:00 – Investment Strategies and Placements
00:47:26 – Other Commodities Opportunities
00:49:48 – Guest Projects and Resources
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQ
Doug Casey’s Take: https://internationalman.com
Amazon Novels: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhc
Book ‘The Preparation’: https://tinyurl.com/theprepa
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on “rational speculation,” especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug’s most recent book, “Assassin,” can be found on Amazon.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you’re most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey’s Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back John Feneck to the show. John Feneck is the CEO of Feneck Consulting Group. The discussion opens with the critical tungsten supply crunch, where China’s recent export restrictions, including cutting off Japan, highlight a severe imbalance. John notes that the U.S. has not produced tungsten since 2015, while 85% of global supply comes from China, Russia, and North Korea, posing risks for defense and technology. He sees potential in advanced North American projects, and mentions growing U.S. government interest in securing domestic production.
On precious metals, he views the recent sharp correction in silver and gold as a medium-term buying opportunity, with silver likely to hold around $50 after its parabolic rise, and gold’s long-term bullish case supported by large bank price targets despite near-term rate-hike uncertainties. He favors producers Silverco and Americas Gold and Silver for their strong plans and management conviction. Turning to copper, near all-time highs, John highlights the supply constraints from long permitting timelines and names Power Metallic, backed by 17 billionaires and exceptional drill results, and PTX Metals, which offers low-cost copper with a pending uranium spin-off. In critical minerals, he mentions Esport Critical for its rare earths, uranium, and copper assets, and First Tolerium for its innovative thermoelectric technology with potential defense and drone applications, showcased at the upcoming DARPA competition. John concludes by describing Feneck Consulting Group’s decade-long track record of providing actionable insights, real-time email updates, and investor conferences, emphasizing the value of independent, non-herd thinking in resource investing.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:42 – Tungsten Market Overview
00:02:47 – Global Supply Challenges
00:04:06 – North American Tungsten Projects
00:07:15 – Defense Applications Importance
00:11:55 – Precious Metals Transition
00:13:50 – Silver Price Analysis
00:16:40 – Gold Market Outlook
00:19:00 – Mining Stock Investments
00:22:30 – Copper Sector Opportunities
00:25:00 – Attractive Producers?
00:31:10 – Rare Earths and Emerging Tech
00:35:05 – Feneck Consulting Group
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/feneckconsult
YouTube: https://youtube.com/feneckcommoditiesreport
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/feneckcommoditiesreport
E-Mail: mailto:john.feneck@yahoo.com
Website/Newsletter: https://www.feneckconsulting.com/
Ticker’s Discussed:Gold: Triumph Gold (TSXV:TIG, OTCQB:TIGCF), Norsemont Mining (NOG, NRRSF). Silver: Silverco Mining (TSXV:SICO, OTCQB:SICOF), Americas Gold & Silver (USA, USAS). Tungsten: Guardian Metal Resources (NYSE:GMTL, OTCQB:GMTLF), Western Star Resources (CSE:WSR, OTCQB:WSRIF), Spartan Metals (W, SPRMF). Copper: Power Metallic (PNPN, PNPNF), PTX Metals (TSXV:PTX, OTCQB:PANXF). Special Situations: First Tellurium (FTEL, FSTTF), Eastport Critical (EVI, EVIIF).
John Feneck is CEO of Feneck Consulting Group. He began his career in 1992 as an equity analyst for Merrill Lynch’s global allocation fund. From 1993 to 2019 he held senior executive roles at Merrill Lynch Funds (now BlackRock) and J.P. Morgan Chase Funds, where he ranked #1 in gross and net sales once at Merrill Lynch and three times at J.P. Morgan (among 40 peers).
Since 2017 he has contributed articles to Kitco—becoming a regular contributor in 2021—and has appeared as a featured guest. He’s delivered over 250 client seminars and webinars, spoken at 12 global commodities events, and in 2017 joined Sprott’s precious metals portfolio-management team. There he developed a proprietary methodology combining technical analysis with direct insights from company management, advocating a “go anywhere” strategy and a diversified portfolio of 25–50 resource stocks to navigate the sector’s volatility.
In September 2019 he founded Feneck Consulting Group, helping small- and mid-cap metals and mining companies raise brand awareness and advising high-net-worth advisors on market opportunities and risks. He holds Series 7, Series 63, CMFC and CIMA Level 1 certifications (though he is not a licensed advisor) and focuses on consulting. Based in Scottsdale, AZ, he’s a single dad to an 11-year-old daughter and spends weekends as a professional musician, athlete and traveler.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. Trader Ferg shares his current market views, highlighting several contrarian opportunities built around long-term, underappreciated assets. He remains bullish on scarce resources like thermal coal, where tight supply and Asian demand support high-quality names, though pure-play options are limited.
In energy, he sees an asymmetric upside and prefers long-dated options on integrated trading houses like Shell, leveraging torque to Brent and LNG while benefiting from volatility through their opaque but highly profitable trading arms. He also points to offshore engineering and oil services as an underinvested niche with rock-bottom valuations, already showing outperformance and strong earnings visibility. A key theme is the shift toward resilient, capital-light business models.
Trader Ferg is particularly enthusiastic about emerging market exchange operators, which he views as inflation-protected, high-margin plays that have been out of favor due to a strong US dollar but are poised for a decade of growth as global capital flows rotate. In gold, he sees a structural bull market driven by de-dollarization and central bank buying, though near-term consolidation is likely after flushing out speculative tourists.
He advocates a patient, long-horizon approach, cautioning against short-term futures and binary geopolitical bets, which have historically been unprofitable for him. Instead, he emphasizes buying cheap, hated assets with robust free cash flow and letting time and volatility work in his favor. Throughout the discussion, he stresses the importance of stress-testing assumptions, learning from mistakes, and focusing on durable trends rather than short-term noise, insights he regularly shares through his Substack.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:52 – Current Market Opportunities
00:02:44 – Exchange Operators Theme
00:04:27 – Oil Services and Offshore
00:08:24 – Oil Market Supply Dynamics
00:17:19 – China Flexibility in Energy
00:25:45 – Hormuz & Concerning Timlines
00:27:07 – Fertilizers Agriculture and Sulfur
00:29:08 – Sulphur Supply Thoughts
00:32:37 – Thermal Coal Supply Demand
00:44:00 – Gold Market and Producers
00:45:55 – Long Term Inflation Strategies
00:50:33 – Exchange Operations
00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/trader_ferg
Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Douglas is a Retired U.S. Army Colonel and a Decorated Combat Veteran. In their discussion, Macgregor assesses the leaked 14-point MOU between Iran and the United States as an admission of strategic defeat, signaling that Iran has emerged victorious from the conflict. He emphasizes that the war is not over, predicting Israel will soon resume its offensive, prompting an Iranian counterattack and forcing President Trump to reengage militarily, albeit briefly, before ultimately disengaging. Macgregor argues that the United States was doomed to lose due to Iran’s mastery of integrated surveillance and strike capabilities, which render traditional naval and air superiority ineffective without robust ground forces, a capability he claims the U.S. currently lacks.
Shifting to economic implications, Macgregor advises a focus on energy, metals, minerals, fertilizer, and food as the only secure investments in the current climate, dismissing AI and SpaceX as speculative bubbles. He warns that the Strait of Hormuz remains at risk, ensuring oil prices will surge again as global demand outpaces supply, with countries racing to build strategic reserves. The depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the potential for further conflict will drive inflation and economic instability, likening the coming effects to a tsunami. He foresees a structural reset where American military hegemony retreats, leading to the collapse of artificial state boundaries in the Middle East and the rise of Iran and Turkey as dominant regional powers, which will reshape alliances and likely end Israel’s long-term viability.
Macgregor also discusses the financial front, projecting that gold will reemerge as the ultimate reserve currency, with prices potentially reaching $10,000, while Bitcoin may serve as a transactional alternative to the dollar. He underscores that the geopolitical shifts will redirect American focus inward, forcing a painful but necessary reorientation toward domestic prosperity and core industries. Overall, his analysis presents a bleak near-term outlook marked by military defeat, economic disruption, and profound global realignment.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:45 – Iran US MOU Assessment
00:06:00 – Energy Metals Commodity Focus
00:08:50 – Oil Prices and Reserves
00:11:50 – Rise of Iran & Turkey
00:20:14 – Trump Pressures & MOU
00:23:30 – Gold and Bitcoin Outlook
00:27:56 – U.S. Strategic Petro Reserve
00:31:38 – Sulphuric Acid, Urea, & Ag.
00:34:47 – Use of Ground Forces?
00:37:08 – Gold In A Tsunami
00:38:50 – Purchasing Power Gold & BTC
00:40:01 – Substack and Final Remarks
00:42:11 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com
X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@douglasmacgregorTV
Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/
Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug
Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.
Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.
Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.
In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.
Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Bill Holter to the show. Bill is a Precious Metals Expert and a metals Broker. Holter warns that the global economy faces a unique and dangerous combination of hyperinflation and deflation occurring simultaneously, a scenario where the cost of living rises rapidly while asset prices fall. He attributes this to the world’s unprecedented debt levels and rising interest rates, which reduce borrowing capacity and crush asset values. Central banks, he argues, cannot allow deflation given the massive debt overhang and will eventually devalue fiat currencies, much like the U.S. did in the 1930s. This environment makes gold uniquely valuable, as it preserves purchasing power during both inflation and deflation.
Holter sees recent weakness in gold as partly driven by its use as a funding source for major IPOs, including SpaceX, and by emerging market economies selling gold for liquidity. Despite the pullback, he views current prices as an attractive entry point, particularly for silver, which he believes is heavily manipulated through paper contracts and naked shorts. He expects a failure to deliver in silver, citing a six-year structural deficit and soaring demand, which would then shatter trust in gold futures and the entire derivatives complex.
On portfolio strategy, Holter advises a heavier allocation to silver due to the elevated gold-to-silver ratio, suggesting it will outperform on a percentage basis. His core recommendation is to hold whatever amount one cannot afford to lose in physical gold and silver, emphasizing their lack of counterparty risk. He also advocates owning mining stocks for leverage, noting they are now more profitable than ever as gold prices rise faster than input costs. However, he cautions investors to take physical possession of share certificates to avoid broker insolvency risk and to diversify geographically across majors, intermediates, and juniors. Holter dismisses platinum group metals as too industrial and not monetary, urging a focus solely on gold and silver for the turbulent times ahead.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:56 – Monitoring interest rates
00:01:34 – IPOs draining gold liquidity
00:03:04 – Higher rates causing deflation
00:05:17 – Debt service crisis emerging
00:09:08 – Melt-up scenario discussion
00:11:01 – Gold correction and entry
00:13:44 – Strait of Hormuz disruption
00:15:00 – Food supply and price risks
00:15:50 – Equity market overvaluation
00:20:45 – Silver failure to deliver risk
00:23:30 – Portfolio allocation advice
00:26:25 – Gold, Miners, and Leverage
00:28:14 – Platinum Metals & Rhodium
Guest Links:
Facebook: https://facebook.com/groups/jsmineset/
Website: https://billholter.com
E-Mail: mailto:bholter@proton.me
Bill was a stockbroker for 23 years and a branch manager for 12. He retired and moved his family out of the U.S. to Costa Rica in late 2006. He returned to Texas in 2011. He was a contributor to GATA since 2007 and began writing for Miles Franklin from 2012 to 2015. He then joined with Jim Sinclair and the Holter/Sinclair collaboration from 2015-2022.
Bill is a precious metals expert and broker, he clears through Miles Franklin.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Florian Grummes to the show. Florian Grummes is the Founder and Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting. Florian remains bullish on oil and gas, viewing energy equities as still undervalued despite recent price consolidation. He anticipates a severe oil price shock by late summer or early autumn, driven by ongoing supply disruptions from Middle East tensions, critically low inventories, and a disconnect between Western paper markets and physical demand. He notes that while demand destruction may eventually occur, the immediate risk is a sharp price spike as shortages intensify.
Florian also warns that the AI-driven stock market bubble is nearing a peak, comparing it to past speculative manias, and expects a significant correction that could trigger a liquidity crunch. This environment complicates the Federal Reserve’s position, as it cannot easily lower interest rates amid persistent inflation and may even be forced to raise them, further stressing the economy. In precious metals, Florian sees gold in a secular bull market, driven by its role as a neutral reserve asset and ongoing central bank buying.
However, he notes that gold and silver are currently in a correction phase, with silver potentially pulling back toward the $50 level before the next leg up. He remains a long-term silver bull due to its industrial and monetary demand, but cautions that short-term pain is likely. Mining stocks have sold off sharply, with sentiment extremely bearish. Florian advises patience, waiting for signs of capitulation and contrarian buy signals before aggressively adding positions. He emphasizes the importance of quality companies and recommends holding cash-flow-generating dividend payers, particularly in oil, to weather potential market turmoil. Overall, he sees a complex, volatile period ahead, but believes the longer-term trends for commodities and precious metals remain intact.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:20 – Oil and Gas Equities Outlook
00:03:45 – Oil Bull Market Analysis
00:06:10 – Middle East Supply Disruptions
00:10:05 – Impending Oil Price Shock
00:13:50 – Energy Market Resilience?
00:15:00 – Specific Interesting Plays
00:17:20 – AI Bubble and Market Risks
00:21:52 – Fed Rates and Inflation Pressures
00:27:08 – Gold Role in Debasement
00:36:00 – Remonitization of Metals?
00:39:45 – Thesis Around Silver
00:43:05 – Gold Miners & GDX
00:48:42 – Quality Miners & Uncertainty
00:51:05 – Midas Touch Consulting
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.midastouch-consulting.com
X: https://twitter.com/FlorianGrummes
Substack: https://substack.com/@midastouchconsulting
Telegram: https://t.me/MidasTouchConsulting
Free Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/d5Euf
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/floriangrummes/
Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/florian-grummes
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Midastouchconsulting
Florian Grummes is an independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, mentor, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 30 years of experience in financial markets.
Florian is the founder and managing director of his company Midas Touch Consulting, which is specialized in trading & investments as well as consulting, analysis & research with a focus on precious metals, commodities and digital assets.
Via Midas Touch Consulting he is publishing daily and weekly gold, silver, bitcoin & cryptocurrency analysis for his numerous international readers. Florian is well known for combining technical, fundamental/macro and sentiment analysis into one often accurate conclusion about the markets.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Francis Hunt back to the show. Francis Hunt is known as a Renegade Trader, Analyst, and Founder of The Market Sniper. Hunt observes that the South Korean KOSPI index has surged an extreme 291% in just over a year, driven almost entirely by two stocks—Samsung and SK Hynix—amid the AI boom. This narrow advance mirrors the concentrated gains in the NASDAQ but is even more pronounced. Despite the export revenues from these tech giants, the Korean won is weakening, which Hunt attributes to foreign investors withdrawing profits and domestic retail investors piling in on record margin, a classic “Shushan boy” setup. He believes a currency crisis looms for South Korea, exacerbated by higher energy import costs that deplete dollar reserves.
These energy cost pressures are part of a broader stagflationary environment that Hunt argues is intentionally manufactured.
He contends stagflation enriches billionaires who hold assets while impoverishing the middle class and blue-collar workers through higher living costs and eventual job losses. This, he says, socializes costs and devalues debt for the wealthy, while governments later turn to predatory taxation, such as capital gains levies, to strip further value from citizens. In this context, Hunt maintains that precious metals—gold, silver, and platinum—are the prime beneficiaries. While gold and silver have experienced a corrective pause after an enormous run-up, he views the three-wave selling pattern as a healthy reset within a long-term bullish structure. His technical target for silver stands at $333, derived from a falling wedge pattern on the quarterly chart, which he expects will resume once the current consolidation resolves.
Hunt advises concentrating wealth in monetary metals rather than diversifying across commodities like copper or lithium, which may rise nominally but lag in real gold-ounce terms. He notes the gold-silver ratio could see a short-term squeeze upward but remains structurally bearish long-term. For miners, he suggests selectivity, as rising energy costs have pressured some, though those with growing ounce profiles remain attractive.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:40 – World Volatility and Market Trends
00:01:40 – South Korea AI Trade Setup
00:08:47 – South Korea Currency and Charts
00:25:09 – Long-Term Silver Thesis
00:27:33 – Precious Metals Market State
00:30:03 – Sectors and Inflationary Pressure
00:32:03 – Nasdaq Vs. Gold Predictions
00:35:00 – Equity Valuation Setup
00:36:10 – Short-Term Gold Outlook
00:44:30 – Gold & Silver Long-Term Thesis
00:55:40 – Copper & Other Commodities
01:00:30 – Market Sniper Wrap Up
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/themarketsniper
X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Dr. Nomi Prins to the show. Dr. Nomi Prins is Founder of Prinsights Global and Substack. The discussion opens with a broad assessment of global economic headwinds, including the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and rising bond yields. Dr. Prins explains that even a hypothetical resolution to the strait crisis would not immediately ease supply backlogs, keeping oil prices elevated and contributing to persistent inflation. She notes a significant dislocation between struggling economic confidence and stock markets reaching all-time highs, fueled by large asset funds and cash waiting on the sidelines.
The conversation shifts to the beneficiaries of supply disruptions, where Dr. Prins sees value in oil producers outside the Middle East, such as those in Colombia, which can bypass the strait. She then highlights uranium as a critical, underappreciated story, emphasizing that nuclear energy’s role in powering data centers and AI creates surging demand against a backdrop of severely constrained supply, with new mines taking up to 18 years to develop. This supply deficit, she argues, makes current uranium prices appear very low. Addressing inflation and central bank policy, Dr. Prins anticipates that while short-term rates will likely remain unchanged, the Federal Reserve may increase long-term bond purchases, effectively reawakening quantitative easing to manage debt servicing costs. She believes this will not significantly stimulate the broader economy but that real growth will come from hard assets and commodities like copper and silver, which are essential for electrification and in structural deficit.
On gold, she remains bullish, citing its stability and the fact that central banks now hold it as their top reserve currency, viewing it as a long-term diversifier. She maintains a year-end gold price target of $6,000. The interview concludes with Dr. Prins pointing to significant investment opportunities in junior mining, particularly in copper, uranium, and rare earth elements, for investors who can look past current geopolitical volatility.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:41 – Global Economy Headwinds
00:01:08 – Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
00:03:20 – Oil Price Outlook
00:06:30 – Oil Producer Opportunities
00:09:43 – Uranium Energy Security
00:13:00 – Commodity Supply Shortages
00:18:28 – Fuel Shortages
00:20:40 – Inflation and QE Outlook
00:26:46 – Gold Market Stability
00:31:33 – Mining Sector Investments
00:35:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/nomiprins
Website: https://nomiprins.com
Substack: https://prinsights.substack.com
Dr. Nomi Prins as a Wall Street insider and outspoken advocate for economic reform, Nomi Prins is a leading authority on how the widespread impact of financial systems continues to affect our daily lives. She has spent decades analyzing and investigating economic and financial events at the ground level and meeting with those that shape the world’s geopolitical-economic framework. She continues to break stories by conducting independent research, writing best-selling books, and traversing the globe to share her knowledge and demystify the world of money.
Before becoming a renowned journalist and public speaker, Nomi reached the upper echelons of the financial world where she worked as a managing director at Goldman Sachs, ran the international analytics group as a senior managing director at Bear Stearns in London, was a strategist at Lehman Brothers and an analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. During her time on Wall Street, she grew increasingly aware of and discouraged by the unethical practices that permeated the banking industry. Eventually, she decided enough was enough and became an investigative journalist to shed light on the ways that financial systems are manipulated to serve the interests of an elite few at the expense of everyone else.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders. Vermeulen begins by analyzing the current equity market, noting that while stocks are grinding higher, the rally is not broad-based but concentrated in tech, small caps, and micro caps, which he sees as a sign of underlying weakness. He suggests the market may be entering a euphoric, parabolic phase, potentially triggered by upcoming IPOs like SpaceX, but warns this could end in a sharp correction and a major market top.
Using Fibonacci extensions, he projects significant upside for the NASDAQ but remains cautious about the rally’s sustainability. Shifting to commodities, Vermeulen explains his preference for stable, trending assets over volatile, headline-driven ones like oil, which he avoids due to geopolitical noise. He expresses similar concerns about the agricultural sector, seeing it as a crowded trade where heavy public interest and high volume may indicate distribution rather than further upside. His most detailed analysis focuses on precious metals, where he forecasts a substantial near-term pullback for gold and silver. His Fibonacci analysis points to a potential drop in gold to $3,600 and a 46% decline in silver from current levels, which he views as a painful reset for latecomers before the next major bull cycle begins.
He views gold miners as the same correlated trade, warning against over-concentration. Vermulen advocates for his “asset revesting” strategy, rotating capital into assets in confirmed uptrends and stepping aside when trends weaken. He emphasizes discipline, risk management, and avoiding emotional attachment to assets like physical gold, which he notes costs money to hold and can underperform for years. His focus remains on equities for now, waiting for a clearer entry point in precious metals after an anticipated sell-off.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:52 – Market Opportunities Radar
00:02:20 – Equities Current Trends
00:02:41 – Rally Breadth Concerns
00:04:00 – Index Selection Discussion
00:06:25 – Fibonacci Technical Analysis
00:11:20 – Bubble and Melt-Up Debate
00:12:30 – Oil Market Disruptions
00:17:10 – Agricultural Commodities View
00:22:31 – Gold Price Predictions
00:28:27 – Silver Miners Analysis
00:35:59 – Copper & Chris’s Approach
00:37:20 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/
X: https://x.com/TheTechTraders
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.
Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.
A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management & Manager of EuroPacific Gold Fund. Day sees the recent weakness in oil as a potential buying opportunity, particularly if a peace deal triggers a further short-term drop. He argues that beyond temporary disruptions, the underlying supply picture is bullish because oil has been chronically underinvested for years.
With US shale production peaking and no clear new major source of global supply to meet consistent demand growth, he views a sustained move above $150 per barrel as a plausible base case. He is waiting for exaggerated drops in oil stocks to build positions, favoring companies with strong balance sheets. Broadening the discussion to the wider commodity complex, Day notes that resource stocks are near 100-year lows relative to the equity market. He identifies a long-term cycle shift where foreign markets are beginning to outperform the US after 15 years of underperformance, a trend he expects to continue for years. This rotation out of large-cap US tech into international value creates opportunities in deeply undervalued markets like the UK, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
Regarding precious metals, Day believes gold and gold stocks currently offer the best risk/reward. Central bank and institutional buying remains price-agnostic and robust, driven by a strategic desire to diversify away from the dollar. While short-term interest rate narratives have held back some buyers, he argues that an eventual peace deal would allow rate cuts, which is very positive for gold. Valuations across royalty companies and mid-tier producers are historically attractive on free cash flow metrics. He advises clients with existing large allocations to hold firm, while those new to the sector should consider building substantial positions. Overall, Day sees gold as the best commodity to own now, even as other hard assets may eventually begin to outperform within the broader cycle.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:43 – Oil Supply Disruption Analysis
00:02:51 – Oil Price Projections Scenarios
00:11:05 – Oil Producers Valuations Review
00:15:47 – Fertilizer and Commodity Disruptions
00:21:45 – Gold and Silver Stocks Outlook
00:23:00 – Foreign Markets Outperformance Trends
00:30:30 – Gold Risk Versus Reward
00:39:00 – Gold Miners Valuations Discussed
00:47:40 – Silver Market Analysis Today
00:49:30 – Commodity Super Cycle Thesis
00:55:00 – Coal and Supply Security
00:57:30 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Gary Savage to the show. Gary Savage is Retired Entrepreneur, Investor, and President of Smart Money Tracker Premium. Gary Savage opened the discussion by assessing the current stock market, noting that while it may be entering a final parabolic bubble phase, particularly in semiconductors, warning signs like a diverging banking index and Hindenburg Omens suggest increasing danger. He cautioned that chasing these final gains risks a severe crash.
The conversation then shifted to precious metals, where Savage believes gold and silver bottomed in March and are now in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle, albeit with frustrating, erratic momentum. He explained that the recent correction, rather than a continued parabolic surge, has returned the market to a “wall of worry” phase. This development, while slower, is healthier for the secular bull market, potentially extending it for several more years and allowing for much higher ultimate price targets, such as $15,000 gold, compared to a shorter, more volatile parabolic blow-off. He advised that buying physical metal is sound at any time for long-term holders, but warned that trading is difficult in the current volatile consolidation, which can easily shake out leveraged positions.
Regarding miners, he expects them to rise with gold but believes physical silver may ultimately outperform mining ETFs due to the absence of company-specific risks. On energy, Savage suggested waiting for a potential peace deal in the Middle East to drive oil prices back down to test the upper $60s breakout level before considering a long position, as he anticipates a larger commodity bull cycle will eventually push oil above its all-time high. He linked this outlook to a broader inflationary cycle, predicting the Fed will eventually cut rates and print money, exacerbating inflation and fueling hard assets. He concluded by noting his Smart Money Tracker service is currently closed to new subscribers, as he only opens access near market bottoms.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:50 – Stock Market Bubble Concerns
00:02:22 – Equity Market Breadth Issues
00:03:48 – Precious Metals Cycle Outlook
00:05:57 – Gold Silver Correction Analysis
00:12:20 – Wall of Worry Phase
00:14:20 – Gold Patterns & Conflict
00:19:43 – Buying Physical Metals Advice
00:23:07 – Gold Miners and Leverage
00:28:19 – Oil Market Opportunity
00:31:32 – Inflation Cycle Outlook
00:33:58 – Smart Money Tracker Update
Guest Links:
X: https:/x.com/garysavage1
Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos
Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary’s renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.
Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary’s in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Art Berman to the show. Art Berman is known as the energy realist and he paints a dire picture of the global energy situation, describing the Strait of Hormuz disruption as an unprecedented crisis with no historical precedent. He likens the world economy to a human losing 20% of its blood supply daily, explaining that while the West hasn’t felt immediate effects due to drawing on oil inventories, these savings will soon run out, and the lag will hit hard.
Discussing supply numbers, Berman clarifies that roughly 15 to 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products normally flow through the strait, but the effective loss is reduced to around 10 million barrels by bypass pipelines, still a catastrophic bleed-out. Berman outlines scenarios, starting with an unrealistic best case where everything resolves by June 1st, yet logistical hurdles like de-mining, insurance, and tanker queues mean oil wouldn’t flow until late 2026 at the earliest, leaving the world with no supply replenishment for months. His base case is that the Strait of Hormuz never returns to normal flows, as Iran has no incentive to relinquish the immense geopolitical leverage it now holds.
He emphasizes that the U.S. is not truly energy independent, importing 6.5 million barrels of heavy crude daily because domestic light oil cannot substitute for the diesel and jet fuel the economy requires. Production restarts would be fraught with technical problems, and investor confidence in the region is permanently shattered. Berman stresses the irreversible nature of these events, comparing them to personal betrayals or missed opportunities—stabilization may occur, but the world will never return to 2025 economic norms. He notes that credible analysts predict global oil storage could hit operational limits by late July, with price spikes to $150-$160 possible before demand destruction tempers them. He highlights the unprecedented rate of supply loss, 99 times faster than any previous oil shock. Despite the bleakness, Berman finds hope in the crisis forcing necessary behavioral changes and a reevaluation of humanity’s planetary footprint.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:49 – Strait of Hormuz Disruption Significance
00:03:59 – Inventory Drawdown Effects
00:11:01 – Missing Barrel Estimates
00:16:44 – Best Case Recovery Scenario
00:27:37 – Base Case Permanent Blockade
00:28:39 – United States Energy Impact
00:32:33 – Crude Oil Quality Differences
00:45:12 – Long Term Geopolitical Outlook
01:05:40 – Storage Inventory Limits
01:25:29 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://artberman.com
X: https://x.com/aeberman12
Art Berman isn’t your run-of-the-mill energy consultant; he’s a full-blown disruptor in a realm riddled with myths. With 40 years in petroleum geology and an intriguing twist – a degree in Middle Eastern history – Art slices through energy complexities with academic rigor and market savvy.
Forget what you thought you knew. This man’s comparative inventory approach is a guiding light for traders, investors, and policymakers. And he doesn’t just spend his time consulting. Art is an adjunct lecturer at the University of Houston, your go-to expert witness, and an electrifying keynote speaker who doesn’t mince words.
In a sector awash with misinformation, Art’s your source for gut-punching, data-backed truths. His clientele spans from ambitious investors to globe-spanning corporations, all seeking decisions steeped in reality, not fantasy. Love him or hate him, one thing is certain: Art Berman is an undeniable force in the energy sector.
Away from the charts and graphs, Art enjoys Baroque music and psychology and spending family time with his wife, kids, grandkids, and his dog, Lily. So, are you ready for the unvarnished truth? Look no further.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. The discussion opens with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its profound implications for global energy supplies. Hunt explains that Saudi Arabia is attempting to broker a new regional architecture involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey, partly in response to Iran’s demonstrated military capabilities. He assesses only a fifty percent chance of success, warning that even if a ceasefire is reached, reopening the strait to normal traffic could take months, and oil stockpiles in Asia, Europe, and America may be exhausted by mid-July.
This supply crunch, he argues, makes a global recession nearly certain by year-end, deepening significantly in the following year. The conversation shifts to China’s strategic positioning. Hunt notes that China anticipated American geopolitical moves and has diversified its energy sources through pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan, alongside massive domestic coal and renewable capacity. This allows China to withstand the Hormuz closure indefinitely, unlike Western nations. The discussion then turns to the evolving global monetary order, where Hunt describes a BRICS-led effort to create a multipolar system anchored in physical gold.
He details China’s construction of Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults in Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, enabling trade settlement in non-G7 currencies convertible to gold. While he sees gold prices reaching double-digit thousands in five years, he cautions that America is unlikely to revalue its gold reserves and warns of potential government confiscation during crises. On commodities, Hunt challenges the prevailing supercycle narrative, calling it premature. He predicts that a deep recession will cause physical demand to collapse, outweighing current supply constraints. He specifically highlights copper, noting that NVIDIA’s shift to photonics could eliminate copper from data centers by 2028, undermining a key demand thesis. Strategic stockpiling of critical minerals by governments will eventually follow, but processing capacity remains a bottleneck controlled by China.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Middle East Conflict Origins
00:03:46 – New Gulf Security Architecture
00:06:05 – Oil Supply Disruption Impacts
00:08:06 – Straits of Hormuz Reopening
00:08:37 – China Trump Trade Dynamics
00:12:25 – Oil Prices Futures Disparity
00:14:14 – Fertilizer and Food Crisis
00:16:10 – BRICS Monetary System Shift
00:22:51 – Bond Yields and Instability
00:25:02 – Recession Outlook and Assets
00:30:40 – Commodity Supercycle Analysis
00:33:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.com
Website: https://simon-hunt.com/
Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Mining Stock Monkey to the show. The discussion centers on navigating the current commodity cycle with a disciplined, downside-protection-first approach. He emphasizes that while structural tailwinds like electrification, AI infrastructure, and global poverty reduction support a broad commodities bull market, selectivity is critical. He starts by identifying historically cheap commodities—where low prices eventually cure low prices by curbing supply and boosting demand—and then evaluates individual companies on their risk-reward profiles. Nickel tops his list, but he exclusively seeks high-grade nickel-sulfide deposits, avoiding laterite projects due to severe environmental and human rights concerns in Indonesia. Potash also appears cheap, with BHP’s delayed and over-budget Jansen mine potentially discouraging new supply; he notes producers like Nutrien and Mosaic, though he favors royalty exposure through Altius Minerals.
In oil and gas, equities are undervalued at spot prices, but the futures curve points to a sharp decline, making him cautious. He prioritizes protecting against large losses, explaining that avoiding a 75% drop is far more valuable than chasing outsized gains. On precious metals, he views the gold bull market as mature after a decade-long run, yet acknowledges that endless money printing and the weaponization of the dollar could drive prices infinitely higher. He is reducing exposure to riskier gold miners and favors royalty companies like Royal Gold, citing its superior margins, built-in growth, relative undervaluation, and potential S&P 500 inclusion as key downside protections.
Silver, however, raises concerns: a parabolic chart pattern and the fact that over a billion rural Asians hold silver as savings could trigger massive selling if they cash in on recent price spikes, potentially flooding the market. He also briefly notes that thermal coal’s chart resembles a classic bottoming pattern worth investigating.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:06 – Commodities Bull Market Outlook
00:03:40 – Identifying Cheap Commodities
00:06:37 – Attractive Commodities Nickel Oil
00:08:08 – Oil Equities and Supply Risks
00:09:50 – Downside Protection Strategy
00:16:03 – Potash Market Analysis
00:21:44 – Nickel Sulphide Deposits
00:25:40 – Gold Markets Currently
00:30:52 – Miners & Risk/Reward
00:36:12 – Finding Value In Miners
00:42:07 – Junior Explorers & Developers
00:47:05 – Silver Market Thoughts
00:53:57 – Thermal Coal
00:54:48 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@MiningStockMonkey
Website: https://miningstockmonkey.com/products/vip
X: https://x.com/miningstockguy
Substack: https://miningstockmonkey.substack.com
Jordan is an independent resource investor and the founder of Mining Stock Monkey. He shares his personal portfolio, dynamic valuation models, and in-depth research with a growing audience of serious investors.
His approach is uncompromisingly independent: no corporate sponsors, no investment banking fees, and no hidden agendas. Jordan invests his own capital and transparently shares exactly what he is buying and selling, along with the proprietary valuation models and research that drive his decisions.
If you’re an asset manager, family office, or high-net-worth investor looking for authentic, high-conviction resource opportunities, you can access Jordan’s real-time portfolio and join a private community of like-minded investors here: https://miningstockmonkey.com/products/vip
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Oliver to the show. Michael Oliver is Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. Oliver argues that a major government bond crisis is quietly underway, driven by unsustainable debt levels in the US and other developed nations. He contends that the T-bond market is on the verge of breaking down to new price lows, an event largely ignored by mainstream financial media but one that could trigger a panic.
This looming crisis, he believes, will force central banks into aggressive money printing to defend government bonds, which in turn will act as rocket fuel for gold and silver. Oliver explains that gold’s long-term rise is not due to transient geopolitical uncertainty but rather the ongoing degradation of fiat currencies through relentless monetary expansion. He sees the stock market as bloated and in the process of forming a major top, similar to the dot-com and mortgage crisis peaks. When equities eventually falter, capital will flee into hard assets, propelling precious metals into a vertical, “wet bar of soap” phase where everyone scrambles to buy.
Silver, which recently broke out of a 50-year price range, is poised for dramatic gains. Oliver projects a move to $300–$500 per ounce, representing hundreds of percent in returns, vastly outpacing gold. He also highlights precious metals miners as an especially attractive opportunity, noting their historically low valuations relative to gold and their potential to double rapidly once they break out on a relative performance basis. Beyond precious metals, Oliver sees a broader commodity supercycle emerging, with oil, grains, and base metals all in technical positions to advance significantly. He advises a long-term, non-leveraged approach to the commodity complex as an asset class shift unfolds. Overall, Oliver’s momentum-based analysis points to an imminent, explosive revaluation of hard assets, urging investors to position themselves before the government bond crisis becomes front-page news.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:41 – Gold and Fiat Money Dynamics
00:03:09 – Government Bond Crisis Warning
00:03:43 – T-Bond Technical Analysis
00:08:46 – Structural Bond Market Trends
00:20:02 – Gold Bull Market Cadence
00:32:37 – Silver Price Forecast
00:37:36 – Silver Outperformance Potential
00:41:16 – Precious Metals Miners Outlook
00:46:48 – Selecting Individual Miners
00:50:23 – Broader Commodity Opportunities
00:54:42 – Closing and Resources
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doomberg to the show. Doomberg is Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack. The podcast explores the current geopolitical and energy landscape, focusing on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and potential global power dynamics. Discussing the current energy market disruptions, Doomberg suggests that while the Strait of Hormuz closure is significant, the market has been surprisingly stable. He estimates the potential oil supply disruption at around 8 million barrels per day, significantly lower than some analysts’ predictions.
The sophisticated oil markets have absorbed these challenges, with China potentially playing a crucial role by releasing strategic reserves and managing supply. The conversation delves into a potential grand geopolitical bargain that might be discussed in the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing. Doomberg speculates about a potential realignment of global interests, including a settlement of the Ukraine conflict on terms favorable to Russia, ceding Taiwan to China’s sphere of influence, and dividing Middle Eastern and Arctic territories among major powers. Regarding the US dollar and global economic shifts, Doomberg argues that we’re moving towards a multipolar or potentially Chinese-dominated unipolar world. He sees the sanctions against Russia after Crimea as the beginning of a new world order, with China and Russia challenging US global dominance.
The discussion highlights the United States’ significant natural gas advantage, with the country producing 110 billion cubic feet per day and poised to become a major LNG exporter. Doomberg emphasizes the potential for North American energy dominance, particularly through clean and abundant natural gas. Looking forward, Doomberg suggests a potential multipolar world with the US focusing on its Western Hemisphere, China gaining prominence, and Russia finding its place. He remains cautiously optimistic about a potential diplomatic resolution to current global tensions, while acknowledging the complexity of geopolitical negotiations.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:38 – Oil Supply Disruption Assessment
00:03:54 – China’s Oil Stockpiling Role
00:05:02 – Oil Price Mechanics Explained
00:10:24 – Supply Shortage Estimates
00:12:52 – Strait Reopening Impact
00:15:20 – Trump-Xi Meeting Significance
00:17:54 – Grand Bargain Outlines
00:22:45 – US Western Hemisphere Focus
00:26:30 – Fading Oil Spike Strategy
00:31:03 – Fertilizers and Commodity Impacts
00:34:53 – Helium Just-In-Time
00:36:16 – OPEC & the Petrodollar
00:39:20 – Geopolitical Shifts and Gold
00:46:46 – Unipolarity Outcomes
00:53:46 – Euro Hydrocarbon Resources
00:56:37 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Substack: https://doomberg.substack.com
X: https://x.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Luke Gromen to the show. Luke Gromen is President and Founder of Forest For The Trees. Luke explores unprecedented global economic and geopolitical shifts, focusing on massive commodity supply disruptions and transforming monetary systems. He highlights several critical trends: the largest commodity supply flow disruption in history, unprecedented levels of globalization, sovereign debt, and market valuations. He argues that current global tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger significant economic challenges. The potential closure of strategic maritime routes could lead to dramatic supply chain breakdowns, potentially causing localized famines and massive economic disruptions.
Gromen suggests that while the US dollar will remain widely used, it will no longer be the primary wealth storage mechanism. China is strategically positioning itself by establishing yuan-gold settlement systems and offshore clearing banks, effectively creating a multi-currency framework with gold as the pivotal settlement asset.
Geographically, Gromen sees varied outcomes for different regions. He believes the United States has geographical advantages but warns against urban living during this transition. Europe appears most vulnerable, while Asian countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are potentially well-positioned to benefit from these shifts, particularly given their engineering capabilities and demographic dynamics.
Regarding commodities, Gromen anticipates a generational trend favoring strategic metals like copper, silver, nickel, rare earths, and uranium. He predicts that future commodity trades will increasingly require value-for-value exchanges, moving away from paper-based transactions. The underlying theme is a fundamental restructuring of global economic systems, driven by supply chain fragilities, geopolitical tensions, and the need for more resilient, productivity-focused economic models. Gromen suggests this transition will likely involve significant inflation and economic recalibration, with gold playing a central role in the emerging monetary landscape.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:44 – Unprecedented Energy Disruption
00:02:48 – Globalization and Debt Levels
00:05:00 – Equity Valuations Warning
00:07:20 – Market Pricing Liquidity
00:09:01 – Supply Chain Breakdowns
00:10:28 – Disruption Lag Effects
00:12:15 – Oil Policy Miscalculations
00:15:27 – Geopolitical Trade-offs
00:21:50 – Hubris vs Strategy
00:28:33 – China’s Strategic Benefits
00:33:56 – Monetary Order Shift
00:39:52 – Gold’s Reserve Role
00:45:06 – Future Debasement & Gold
00:49:46 – Regional Economic Outlooks
00:56:10 – Commodity Generational Trends
01:00:12 – New section
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/lukegromen
Website: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.
In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.
In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.
Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Mr. Macgregor is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and a decorated combat veteran. In this in-depth discussion, Macgregor provides a critical analysis of the current geopolitical situation, focusing on the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf and its profound global economic implications. Macgregor argues that the current war has created a catastrophic disruption in global maritime trade, with commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down by over 90%. This disruption is causing severe economic challenges, including potential famines, skyrocketing energy prices, and significant supply chain disruptions.
He predicts oil prices could reach $150-$200 per barrel, which would have devastating economic consequences. The colonel is particularly critical of the U.S. approach to the conflict, suggesting that the war is primarily driven by Israeli interests rather than vital U.S. strategic objectives. He believes the strategic initiative has passed to Iran, which can absorb more punishment and endure more economic pain than the United States. Macgregor emphasizes the critical importance of resource sovereignty, arguing that countries must now focus on securing their own critical mineral supplies, refining capabilities, and energy infrastructure. He sees this conflict as a transformative moment that will fundamentally reshape global economic and geopolitical relationships, potentially accelerating the de-dollarization process and China’s economic rise.
The discussion highlights the urgent need for a diplomatic solution to stop the conflict, warning that continued military operations will only exacerbate global economic challenges. Macgregor suggests that the world needs to move towards a new approach of international cooperation, focusing on practical economic survival rather than military confrontation. Ultimately, Macgregor believes the current crisis will force nations to rethink their economic strategies, prioritize resource security, and develop more resilient and self-sufficient economic models.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:40 – Iran Campaign Prediction Review
00:00:40 – Iran War Phases Clarified
00:03:02 – Strait of Hormuz Closure
00:03:44 – Global Economic Catastrophe Warning
00:04:41 – Resource Sovereignty Essential Now
00:06:53 – Markets Manipulation and Warfare
00:09:00 – Revolution in Warfare
00:10:33 – Concealing War Strategic Disaster
00:13:00 – Trump’s Strategic Dilemma
00:16:43 – Commodity Investments Shift
00:20:26 – Gold Reserves De-Dollarization Trends
00:24:00 – War Duration and Oil Disruptions
00:30:10 – China & Oil Refining
00:36:43 – Western Reindustrialization
00:40:30 – US Reorganization Critical Minerals
00:44:20 – Reindustrialization and Direction
00:46:04 – Strategic Metal Concerns
00:49:35 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com
X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@douglasmacgregorTV
Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/
Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug
Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.
Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.
Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.
In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.
Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Grant Williams to the show. Grant Williams is Financial Advisor, Portfolio & Strategy Advisor, and a Co-Founder of Real Vision. In this wide-ranging discussion, Williams explores the potential transformation of the global monetary system, highlighting significant shifts in geopolitical and economic dynamics. He argues that the world is experiencing a fundamental reordering of monetary power, with the US dollar’s global dominance potentially eroding due to factors like sanctions, increasing government debt, and diminishing international trust.
Williams suggests that gold could emerge as a critical stabilizing asset during this transition, potentially serving as a temporary anchor for a new monetary system. He emphasizes that countries are increasingly losing confidence in the US dollar, with many gradually reducing their dollar reserves and turning to alternative assets like gold. This trend isn’t necessarily a deliberate choice, but a natural response to systemic uncertainties.
The conversation delves into the concept of a “fourth turning” – a generational framework that suggests periodic massive societal transformations. Williams sees the current global environment as consistent with this model, characterized by significant economic and geopolitical upheaval. He believes we’re transitioning from an era of virtual financial abstractions to a world focused on tangible assets and real value.
Regarding investment strategies, Williams recommends a patient approach to commodities. He suggests focusing on essential resources like oil, copper, and other critical minerals, noting that we’re likely entering a long-term commodity bull market. He advises investors to conduct thorough research, understand commodity dynamics, and be prepared for a potentially slower, more deliberate investment landscape.
Williams also cautions against complacency, arguing that the era of guaranteed government bailouts and easy monetary policies may be ending. He encourages investors to re-examine their assumptions, be open to new perspectives, and recognize that historical investment strategies might not work in this emerging economic environment.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:02 – Monetary Order Shifts
00:05:25 – Commodity Disruptions Impact
00:10:45 – Bailout Trust Erosion
00:13:49 – Gold Performance Analysis
00:16:31 – Global Reserve Changes
00:22:00 – Gold Standard Revival
00:24:10 – Geopolitical Considerations
00:27:00 – Gold & Fiat Printing
00:29:31 – Fourth Turning Cycles
00:35:45 – Commodity Investment Strategies
00:42:00 – Patience in Bull Cycles
00:44:10 – Commodities Outperformance
00:48:33 – North America Resource Risks
00:52:56 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://grant-williams.com
Website: https://vongreyerz.gold/
X: https://x.com/ttmygh
Grant Williams, much to his dismay, has logged over 35 years in finance. During that time, he’s lived and worked in seven major financial centres from London to Sydney, building the kind of network that many others can only dream about.
He began his career in the Japanese equity market in the mid-1980s, before a three-year posting to Tokyo ensured he had a ringside seat as the twin bubbles in equities and real estate burst simultaneously and spectacularly at the end of 1989. After a short stint back in London, Grant relocated once again, this time to New York, where he spent 7 years. Subsequent postings have taken him to Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, and the Cayman Islands.
Currently, he is a senior advisor to Von Greyerz in Switzerland, and a portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore.
Back in 2014, Grant’s ambition to bring the most intelligent, engaging, and original people in finance to a wider audience led him to co-found Real Vision, an on-demand internet-based financial media platform.
Grant’s twin Real Vision interview series, In Conversation With… and On The Road raised the bar for financial content – engaging and educating viewers in equal measure and helping them learn the secrets behind a group of extraordinary investors’ success.
Long before Real Vision, however, Grant was guiding people around the fringes of finance with his regular newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…, a publication which, from humble beginnings as a daily note to a few friends and colleagues, has grown into one of the most widely-read financial publications in the world.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Don Durrett to the show. Don Durrett is Author, Investor, and Founder of Goldstockdata.com. In this comprehensive interview, Durrett provides deep insights into the current economic landscape and his perspective on gold and silver investments. Durrett argues that the global economic system is fundamentally unsustainable, characterized by what he calls “voodoo economics” and modern monetary theory’s approach of continuous money printing. He believes the United States is trapped in a “doom loop” of increasing debt and economic challenges, which creates a compelling case for precious metals investments.
Drawing from his two decades of investing experience, Durrett explains his investment philosophy using a pyramid approach. He recommends building a foundation with physical metals, then progressively adding ETFs, major mining companies, mid-tier producers, and finally high-risk exploration stocks. His current portfolio contains 165 stocks, with an expectation of generating a seven to ten-fold return. Durrett is particularly bullish on gold, projecting prices potentially reaching $7,000 and expecting the current bull market to continue through 2028. He anticipates a “fair trade” scenario where gold’s value crosses the S&P 500’s value, indicating a significant market transformation. His investment strategy focuses on finding stocks with exceptional leverage and potential, particularly those that could provide 20x returns at higher metal prices.
Regarding the current market, Durrett sees significant opportunities in precious metals miners, especially those with potential for substantial growth. He’s not overly concerned with current production costs, instead focusing on a company’s potential valuation at higher gold and silver prices. He believes many investors and Wall Street are underestimating the potential of gold and silver mining companies. Through his website Goldstockdata.com, Durrett aims to provide investors with comprehensive data and educational resources to help them make informed investment decisions in the precious metals sector.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:41 – Market Overview & Bull Case
00:03:29 – Economic History and Voodoo Economics
00:08:37 – MMT Origins and Doom Loop
00:11:32 – Current Correction Buy Opportunity
00:12:54 – Geopolitical War Impacts Analysis
00:25:45 – Fear Trade and Gold Targets
00:31:18 – Miners & Bull Markets
00:37:04 – Investment Approaches
00:41:44 – Pain Point and Diversification
00:48:35 – Royalty Companies Evaluation
00:51:23 – Goldstockdata.com Overview
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com
Amazon Books: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Francis Hunt to the show. Francis Hunt is the Renegade Trader, Analyst, & Founder of The Market Sniper. In this wide-ranging discussion, Hunt presents a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape, focusing on precious metals, debt, and potential financial system transformations. Hunt argues that the world is experiencing a significant economic paradigm shift characterized by debt debasement and financial repression. He believes we are in the early stages of a precious metals bull market, with gold, silver, and particularly platinum presenting substantial investment opportunities. He emphasizes the scarcity of these metals, especially platinum, which he sees as dramatically undervalued compared to its rarity.
The discussion explores the potential risks in the current financial system, particularly around AI investments and government interventions. Hunt is critical of government policies, viewing them as mechanisms designed to reduce individual economic freedom. He suggests that governments are likely to implement increasingly aggressive tax policies and financial controls, which he terms “tax scavenge mode.”
Francis predicts a complex economic future characterized by “hyperstagflation” – a period of economic stagnation combined with inflationary pressures. He recommends investors protect themselves by holding physical precious metals, with gold as the foundation, followed by silver and platinum. He also suggests that mining stocks could provide opportunities, though they carry more volatility.
Geopolitically, Hunt sees interesting developments with the BRICS nations potentially introducing a gold-backed currency, which could force Western economies to reconsider their monetary strategies. He’s particularly skeptical of government statistics and mainstream narratives, encouraging investors to look beyond official reports. Ultimately, Hunt’s message is one of cautious opportunity. While he sees significant economic challenges ahead, he believes informed investors can protect and potentially grow their wealth by understanding these trends and positioning themselves strategically in precious metals and select investments.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:50 – Precious Metals Bull Thesis
00:01:50 – Bull Market Top Criteria
00:03:45 – AI Contagion and Debasement
00:07:48 – Debt-Fiat Debasement Era
00:11:45 – Stablecoins and Bailouts
00:12:55 – Gold vs Bitcoin Liquidity
00:15:40 – US Gold Revaluation Skepticism
00:18:45 – BRICS Gold-Backed Currency
00:24:55 – Crisis Opportunity Strategies
00:27:20 – Silver Scarcity and Ratio
00:39:12 – Platinum Monetary Potential
00:45:29 – Hyperstagflation and Super-Cycle
00:55:48 – Market Sniper Wrap Up
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/themarketsniper
X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Christopher Whalen to the show. Christopher Whalen is an Investment Banker, Author, and Chairman Whalen Global Advisors. The discussion centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and the future of the global financial system. Whalen argues that the world is in the early stages of a gold up-cycle, primarily driven by central banks increasingly adopting gold as a key reserve asset. He emphasizes that while the US dollar remains crucial for global trade, its dominance is gradually shifting. Whalen provides insights into the current economic challenges, highlighting inflation as a significant concern. He suggests that the federal deficit and monetary expansion are primary drivers of economic instability.
The conversation explores the potential for alternative monetary approaches, including gold-linked bonds and revaluing gold stocks, though Whalen remains skeptical about a complete return to a gold standard. Regarding global currency dynamics, Whalen believes the BRICS settlement currency and attempts to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy are unlikely to succeed in the near term. He argues that the dollar’s utility in financing transactions and its widespread acceptance make it difficult to replace. However, he anticipates a gradual decline in the dollar’s global share, moving towards a more multilateral system reminiscent of the pre-World War II era.
On investment strategies, Whalen recommends diversification, particularly advocating for 10-20% of portfolios to be allocated to gold. He is cautious about current equity markets, especially tech stocks driven by artificial intelligence hype. The banking sector presents mixed prospects, with consumer banking relatively stable but commercial real estate posing significant challenges. Ultimately, Whalen remains optimistic about the United States’ economic potential. He believes the country’s natural resources, economic flexibility, and inherent strengths will help manage current financial challenges. The discussion concludes with a nuanced view of economic transformation, suggesting adaptation rather than catastrophic decline.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:54 – Gold’s Long-Term Cycle
00:01:21 – Central Banks Buying Gold
00:03:13 – Inflation and AI Hype
00:05:44 – Monetary Inflation Defined
00:07:04 – Metals as Safe Havens
00:11:13 – Commodity Supercycle Thesis
00:13:03 – Treasury Debt Issuance Strategy
00:15:44 – Gold-Linked Bonds Proposal
00:19:12 – Gold Remonetization Incentives
00:21:36 – BRICS Currency Challenge
00:26:56 – Outgrowing US Debt
00:32:41 – Equities in Inflation
00:36:26 – Banking Sector Health
00:38:32 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
X: https://x.com/rcwhalen
Books (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcr
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/
Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings.
Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream” (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also with Wiley.
He served on FINRA’s Economic Advisory Committee from 2011 to 2023 and was an advisor on Season 5 of SHOWTIME’s “Billions.” Additionally, he was a fellow at Indiana State University (2008-2014), a member of Villanova School of Business’ Finance Department Advisory Council (2013-2016), and a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (2017-2019).
Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst and contributes to other publications and forums. He has testified before Congress, the SEC, and FDIC. A regular media commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox News, Chris is active on social media under “rcwhalen.” He is also a member of The Mortgage Bankers Association and The Lotos Club of New York.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Justin Huhn to the show. Justin Huhn is Founder & Publisher of Uranium Insider Pro. In this comprehensive discussion, Huhn provides an in-depth analysis of the current uranium market, highlighting its unique supply and demand dynamics. The uranium market is currently experiencing a significant bull run, with demand projections showing substantial growth. The World Nuclear Association’s 2025 reference scenario indicates uranium demand could be 50% higher by 2040 compared to 2019. Key demand drivers include electricity growth, clean energy mandates, and energy security concerns, with nuclear energy capacity projected to grow at approximately 4% annually.
On the supply side, the market faces critical challenges. Major producers like Kazatomprom are struggling to maintain production levels, with most existing mines experiencing declining output. Huhn emphasizes that the industry needs substantially higher prices – potentially over $100 per pound in the term market – to incentivize new project development. The market’s structure is characterized by limited supply and rising prices, with trading volumes declining. Utilities remain cautious, often underestimating future price trajectories. Potential secondary demand drivers include financialization, strategic sovereign stockpiling, and utility inventory restocking.
Huhn is bullish on uranium’s long-term prospects, suggesting the market is still in early to mid-stages of its bull cycle. He recommends investors diversify their approach, potentially holding physical uranium through vehicles like Yellow Cake or Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, and maintaining a diversified portfolio of mining stocks.
Regarding potential disruptors, Huhn is optimistic about thorium’s long-term potential but doesn’t see it impacting the current uranium cycle. He’s also measured about small modular reactors, believing the focus should remain on building large, proven nuclear reactor designs. For investors interested in the sector, Huhn suggests carefully selecting companies with responsible management, strong capital positioning, and potential for future cash flow generation.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Uranium Bull Cycle Position
00:02:15 – Nuclear Demand Growth Drivers
00:04:21 – Supply Demand Modeling
00:06:23 – Market Uniqueness Factors
00:07:27 – Bull Market Innings Outlook
00:10:18 – Key Uranium Producers
00:17:48 – Supply Bottlenecks Challenges
00:22:36 – Incentive Price Discussion
00:25:29 – Spot vs Term Market
00:28:48 – Future Demand Projections
00:36:35 – Geopolitical Market Bifurcation
00:39:28 – Thorium and SMR Disruptors
00:45:19 – Portfolio Construction Advice
00:51:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com
Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletter
X: https://x.com/UraniumInsider
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin’s thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro’s “Focus List,” as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter’s subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
The success of Uranium Insider has been gratifying, and the emerging bull market in uranium continues to offer an unusually attractive risk:reward proposition for fellow contrarian investors.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jay Martin to the show. Jay Martin is Host of The Jay Martin Show & Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. In this wide-ranging discussion, Martin provides deep insights into the current global economic landscape, focusing particularly on gold, commodities, and geopolitical shifts. Martin argues that the current gold market represents more than just another investment trend. Central banks are purchasing gold primarily due to two key factors: diminishing confidence in the US dollar’s value and increasing unpredictability of US geopolitical policy. Unlike previous asset rallies, gold represents a fundamental monetary asset that signals broader economic transformations.
They explore the emerging competition between the United States and China, which Martin views through two primary filters: supply and demand dynamics, and economic competitiveness. He suggests we are exiting the 40-year era of globalization, entering a more uncertain geopolitical landscape where countries are carefully navigating alliances and economic interests. Martin highlights significant developments like China’s strategic investments in critical minerals, the potential de-dollarization through mechanisms like the BRICS settlement currency, and the United States’ efforts to re-shore manufacturing and regain control of critical supply chains. He estimates the cost of reshoring could be tens of trillions of dollars, potentially creating unprecedented inflationary pressures.
Regarding global commodities, Martin sees a supercycle driven by massive underinvestment over the past 15 years. He uses copper as a prime example, noting consistent decade-over-decade demand growth despite technological disruptions and economic recessions. The discussion also touches on the complex dynamics of the BRICS alliance, which Martin views as a temporarily unified group primarily motivated by reducing dependence on the US dollar. He predicts this alliance will eventually fracture as its members’ fundamental differences emerge. Martin concludes by discussing his upcoming Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and Commodity University, platforms designed to educate investors about the nuanced world of resource investing.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:17 – Gold Cycle Perspective
00:06:53 – Gold Remonetization Thesis
00:10:40 – Mystery Gold Buyer
00:18:20 – Commodity Supercycle Overview
00:24:00 – World View Framework
00:28:28 – Belt and Road Initiative
00:30:19 – De-Dollarization Trends
00:37:51 – US Reshoring Strategy
00:42:40 – Venezuela Conflict Analysis
00:46:24 – Russia’s Geopolitical Role
00:50:40 – BRICS and Multi-Polarity
00:54:28 – Investment Conference Details
00:56:12 – Commodity University Program
01:00:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/JayMartinBC/
Conference: https://cambridgehouse.com/vancouver-resource-investment-conference
Website: https://cambridgehouse.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJayMartinShow
Commodity University: https://www.thecommodityuniversity.com/
Jay Martin is the President & CEO of Cambridge House International Inc.
His ideal day begins with a hard workout followed by dark coffee and a couple of hours to read anything related to futurism and geopolitics.
Since 2011 he has expanded Cambridge House from Canada’s leading junior mining conferences to become Canada’s most recognizable brand in public venture capital. Today, Cambridge House produces the largest investment conferences in the country in both technology and natural resources and hosts the largest video library of investment content in Canada.
Jay sits on the board of the Entrepreneur Organization, a global business community of over 12,000 leading entrepreneurs in 53 countries worldwide.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doomberg to the show. Doomberg is the Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack. In this wide-ranging interview, Doomberg offers unique perspectives on global geopolitics, energy markets, and financial trends. Regarding gold, Doomberg views it as a savings vehicle and neutral reserve asset, arguing that its recent price appreciation reflects the declining neutrality of Western financial instruments. The Doom team believes gold is reasserting itself as a critical settlement mechanism in international trade, especially as countries become wary of US dollar-based systems.
On energy markets, Doomberg challenges conventional peak oil narratives, asserting that hydrocarbons are plentiful and technological advances continue to make extraction more efficient. They predict a long-term equilibrium oil price around $55 per barrel, driven by natural gas arbitrage opportunities. The United States, in their view, has enormous energy potential that could drive significant economic growth if political challenges are addressed.
Geopolitically, Doomberg anticipates significant structural changes, particularly in the European Union. They argue the EU will likely dismantle due to fundamental energy challenges, especially Germany’s dismantling of its nuclear power sector and loss of cheap Russian gas. The team sees the ongoing conflict in Ukraine as a potential catalyst for this potential EU breakdown.
The potential conflict with Venezuela and the Middle East is also discussed, with Doomberg offering nuanced perspectives on resource-driven geopolitical strategies. They consistently emphasize that energy and resources underpin most global political and economic dynamics. Throughout the discussion, Doomberg highlights the importance of looking beyond mainstream narratives and propaganda, advocating for a more analytical approach to understanding global trends. They stress the need to examine data critically and develop robust mental models for interpreting complex geopolitical and economic phenomena.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:56 – Gold Price Surge Analysis
00:05:14 – Gold as Neutral Reserve
00:08:12 – Remonetization Incentives Discussion
00:10:37 – Historical Inflation Parallels
00:14:20 – Stablecoins Funding Crisis
00:16:26 – BRICS Gold Settlement
00:18:35 – US-China Trade War
00:22:58 – Oil Demand Shortfall Views
00:30:59 – Peak Oil Debunked
00:36:53 – EU Hydrocarbon Shortages
00:41:02 – Ukraine Propaganda Realities
00:57:51 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Substack: https://doomberg.substack.com
X: https://x.com/DoombergT
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Don Durrett to the show. Don Durrett is an Author, Investor, and Founder of Goldstockdata.com. This episode explores the current state of precious metals markets, with a particular focus on gold and silver’s potential future trajectory. Durrett’s primary thesis centers on the impending failure of the U.S. bond market, which he believes is the fundamental driver behind gold’s current and future price movements. He argues that the massive U.S. government debt, currently at $38 trillion and growing by $2 trillion annually, has created an unsustainable economic situation. This instability is causing investors to lose confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, with countries like China already reducing their holdings.
Regarding gold price targets, Durrett is remarkably bullish, projecting prices between $6,000 and $8,000 per ounce. He bases this projection on historical bull market patterns, particularly comparing current trends to gold’s performance in the 1970s and early 2000s. He anticipates that gold will experience significant appreciation, especially when the stock market encounters serious challenges.
Silver presents a more volatile prospect, which Durrett describes metaphorically as “little sister” following “big brother” gold. He expects potential shortages and significant price fluctuations, with targets ranging from $100 to $150 per ounce. His investment strategy involves extreme diversification, currently holding 161 stocks with minimal allocation to each to manage emotional risk. Durrett emphasizes that his approach is speculation, not traditional investing.
Don recommends looking for companies with multiple growth potential – through project development, discoveries, and acquisitions. His website, Goldstockdata.com, provides data and analysis for investors interested in precious metal mining stocks.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Recent Gold Correction
00:05:07 – Bull Market Drivers
00:06:00 – US Bond Market Crisis
00:13:02 – Stock Market Recession Warning
00:19:55 – Gold Price Targets
00:23:38 – Silver Volatility and Shortages
00:28:22 – Miner Investment Framework
00:39:42 – Identifying 10-Bagger Miners
00:48:02 – Diversification Strategy
00:52:16 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com
Amazon Books: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004.
Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks.
He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef Schachter is the Founder of Schachter Asset Management Inc. The discussion centers on the current and future state of the global energy market, with a particular focus on oil and natural gas dynamics.
Schachter provides a nuanced view of the oil market, noting both near-term challenges and long-term bullish potential. In the short term, he anticipates oil prices potentially dropping to the $56-$58 range due to significant global inventories. However, he sees a compelling long-term narrative driven by fundamental supply constraints and declining global reserves, which require approximately 5-6 million barrels of new production annually just to maintain current levels.
He highlights critical challenges in the energy sector, including underinvestment and lengthy development timelines. Schachter emphasizes that new production requires extensive infrastructure, environmental approvals, and significant capital expenditure. He believes this complexity will contribute to a potential energy supercycle, potentially seeing oil prices exceed the 2008 peak of $147 per barrel. Canada emerges as a key focus, with Schachter noting the country’s substantial energy resources and potential for growth. He suggests that Canadian energy companies offer attractive investment opportunities, particularly those with strong balance sheets, exploration potential, and dividend yields ranging from 5-10%.
Geopolitical factors and technological innovations play a significant role in Schachter’s analysis. He discusses how new extraction technologies, such as fracking and advanced offshore drilling, continue to unlock previously inaccessible energy resources. Additionally, he sees potential risks in global trade tensions and potential economic slowdowns that could impact energy demand. Looking forward, Schachter is optimistic about the energy sector’s potential, anticipating global oil demand increasing to 110-112 million barrels per day by 2030. He recommends investors consider diversified exposure across oil, natural gas, and service industries, with investment strategies tailored to individual risk profiles and income needs.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:03 – Oil Market Pressures
00:03:27 – Bullish Long-Term Forecast
00:06:15 – Energy Sector Underinvestment
00:09:14 – Supply Development Lags
00:13:05 – Historical Super Cycles
00:15:07 – Global Production Overview
00:17:00 – Canada’s Resource Potential
00:19:46 – Rejecting Peak Oil
00:22:25 – Natural Gas Challenges
00:24:47 – Investment Strategies Overview
00:31:00 – Valuation and Multiples
00:37:00 – Geopolitical Risk Factors
00:42:00 – Bull Thesis Risks
00:47:06 – Uranium Market Insights
00:50:35 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://schachterenergyreport.ca
Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, use coupon code “PGR100”
https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/
Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what’s going on, what is to come, and why.
Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell’s Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks’ and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call.
Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014.
Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doug Casey to the show. Doug Casey is Bestselling Author, Speculator, the Founder of Casey Research, and a Voluntarist Philosopher. In this wide-ranging discussion, Casey provides a comprehensive perspective on the global economic landscape, focusing on precious metals, commodities, and potential monetary shifts. Casey argues that the world is entering the “greatest monetary crisis in world history,” with gold and Bitcoin positioned as potential alternative monetary assets. He believes the current financial system is fundamentally broken, with governments printing money and eroding currency value. While bullish on gold, he suggests it’s no longer underpriced as it historically was, but remains a critical savings vehicle, especially when stored offshore.
Regarding investment strategies, Casey recommends focusing on gold and silver mining stocks, particularly smaller companies with entrepreneurial management. He emphasizes evaluating mining investments through his “nine p’s” approach, with people and management quality being the most critical factor. He sees significant potential in junior mining companies, noting they remain dramatically undervalued. Casey is equally enthusiastic about broader commodity opportunities, especially in energy sectors like coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium. He views these commodities as critically undervalued and essential for global economic development.
He’s particularly optimistic about emerging markets in the Orient, suggesting they represent better economic potential than Western economies.
On silver, Casey sees it as a “poor man’s gold” with significant upside potential, particularly given its industrial applications and relatively small market capitalization. He believes silver could potentially reach $200-$250 per ounce in real terms. Throughout the discussion, Casey maintains a provocative, libertarian perspective, critiquing government institutions and advocating for decentralized monetary systems.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:51 – Gold Bull Market Overview
00:02:16 – Upcoming Monetary Crisis
00:03:08 – Return to Gold Standard
00:07:45 – Bitcoin as Good Money
00:11:35 – Challenges to Gold Thesis
00:14:58 – Governments Buying Gold
00:19:46 – Investing in Gold Miners
00:25:01 – Selecting Junior Miners
00:29:21 – Owning Physical Bullion
00:31:23 – Silver Investment Thesis
00:44:51 – Commodity Supercycle Outlook
00:47:12 – Overlooked Energy Commodities
00:54:01 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQ
Doug Casey’s Take: https://internationalman.com
Amazon Novels: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhc
Book ‘The Preparation’: https://tinyurl.com/theprepa
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on “rational speculation,” especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug’s most recent book, “Assassin,” can be found on Amazon.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you’re most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey’s Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. In this in-depth interview, Oliver provides a comprehensive analysis of the current financial landscape, with a particularly bullish outlook on gold, silver, and commodities.
Oliver argues that gold and silver are on the cusp of a significant breakout, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. He suggests gold could reach $8,000, while silver might surge to $100-$200 within a few quarters. The key indicator for this potential surge is a technical spread relationship between gold and silver, which he believes is about to break out of a long-standing range.
The discussion highlights the current economic context, particularly the potential for a major stock market correction. Oliver predicts the S&P 500 could decline by 50%, creating a significant shift in investment strategies. He emphasizes that this isn’t just a typical market cycle, but a fundamental restructuring of asset allocation, with real-world assets like commodities becoming increasingly attractive. Oliver’s analysis extends to broader economic trends, including government debt, monetary policy, and the potential for a reset in how people view money and investments.
He suggests that the current monetary system, dominated by central bank interventions, is approaching a critical point of questioning and potential transformation. Regarding investment strategies, Oliver recommends focusing on silver, gold, and related mining stocks. He believes the miners, especially junior miners, could provide substantial leverage during this potential commodity boom. He’s particularly excited about silver, arguing that when it breaks out, it could move dramatically and quickly enter a “new reality” of pricing.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:47 – Gold Bull Market Status
00:02:20 – Gold Institutionalization Outlook
00:03:00 – Stock Market Topping Process
00:04:07 – Gold vs S&P Analysis
00:09:35 – Historical Debt Parallels
00:12:40 – Silver Outperformance Prediction
00:18:20 – Momentum Analysis Explained
00:23:37 – Commodities Shift Signals
00:33:24 – Mining Sector Opportunities
00:48:19 – Oil Energy Breakout Prospects
00:55:00 – Michael’s Analysis & Reports
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Sven Carlin to the show. Sven Carlin is Publisher of Value Investing YouTube, Podcast, & Research Platform. During their discussion, Carlin offers insights into various investment opportunities and his value investing philosophy across multiple sectors. Regarding gold, Carlin views the current market with caution, noting excessive speculation and ETF inflows. Sven suggests that while gold might reach $10,000 eventually, the current environment feels risky. He recommends maintaining a modest portfolio allocation and being willing to trim positions when sentiment becomes too exuberant.
In the broader market, Sven sees significant risks, particularly among technology stocks like NVIDIA. He questions the long-term durability of tech companies’ competitive advantages and warns about the potential for rapid disruption. He believes the current market is stretched, with cash flows declining as companies invest heavily in AI and other speculative technologies.
Carlin finds more attractive opportunities in overlooked sectors like agriculture and commodities. He appreciates businesses with predictable long-term growth, steady dividend yields, and reasonable price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasizes the importance of patience and maintaining a disciplined approach, especially when investing in cyclical industries.
His investment strategy focuses on finding undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, preferring businesses trading at low price-to-earnings multiples and offering consistent dividends. He maintains a diversified portfolio and is willing to slowly accumulate positions in sectors like oil, agriculture, and select international markets. A key principle for Carlin is understanding a company’s true value and being comfortable buying more when prices drop. He warns against getting caught up in growth narratives and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear-eyed view of a company’s actual competitive advantages and potential for long-term value creation.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:00 – Gold Market Outlook
00:04:00 – Gold Portfolio Allocation
00:05:30 – Gold Miners Challenges
00:09:30 – Value Investing Framework
00:11:00 – Broad Market Overvaluation
00:14:30 – AI Tech Risks
00:18:30 – Agriculture Sector Opportunities
00:21:00 – Oil and Gas Insights
00:25:30 – Iron Ore Cyclicals
00:30:30 – Healthcare Investment Views
00:35:00 – China and International Exposure
00:38:00 – Investor Patience Lessons
00:42:00 – Sven Carlin Platform
00:44:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://svencarlin.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Value-Investing
Research Platform: sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com
Podcast: https://svencarlin.com/podcasts
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/sven-carlin-a7140487
Sven Carlin’s journey begins in the sun-drenched coastal city of Novigrad, Croatia, where the vivid blue Mediterranean Sea shaped his early years. A passionate diver, Sven spent his youth exploring underwater worlds alongside his close friend Erik Radin. Tragically, Erik’s untimely passing shifted Sven’s focus to his second love: research and investing.
This pivot culminated in a Ph.D. on emerging market stocks, where Sven developed the innovative Real Value Risk Model. His work is detailed in a summary article available on SSRN, offering fresh insights into volatile global equities.
Just before turning 30, Sven and his wife, Anata Bain (anatabain.com), sought new adventures. They relocated to London, where Sven landed a role at Bloomberg. Yet, the grind of 60+ hour weeks in a corporate environment—despite stunning city views and sharp colleagues—proved unfulfilling. Craving independence, they moved to the Netherlands.
There, Sven channeled his expertise into education, serving as a high school teacher during his Ph.D., then as a finance and accounting lecturer and assistant professor at the Amsterdam School of International Business and Amsterdam Fashion Institute. Passionate about sharing knowledge, he eventually embraced full autonomy.
Today, Sven is an independent researcher and investor, empowering fellow enthusiasts through his YouTube channel and the Stock Market Research Platform. As he puts it: “I love my family, I love my life, and I love what I do.”
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is Founder & Chief Investment Officer, of The Technical Traders. In this in-depth discussion, Vermeulen provides insights into the current state of financial markets, with a particular focus on precious metals, commodities, and potential economic shifts. Vermeulen argues that gold is currently signaling potential economic instability, suggesting we are approaching a significant financial reset. He believes the precious metals market is in a temporary pullback phase, with potential for another substantial rally.
Drawing parallels to the 2007-2008 market cycle, he anticipates gold could potentially reach $5,100, representing approximately a 30% move from current levels. His investment strategy, which he calls “asset revesting,” focuses on moving capital into assets showing the strongest upward trends with the least risk. Vermeulen emphasizes following price action rather than getting caught up in fundamental narratives, noting that markets have their own psychology and momentum.
Regarding other commodities, Vermeulen offers nuanced perspectives. He sees copper in an uptrend but isn’t particularly bullish, while he’s bearish on oil, predicting it could drop to around $45-$52 per barrel. Interestingly, he sees potential in the US dollar, believing it’s positioned for a significant rally that could coincide with a stock market correction. His analysis suggests we’re in a late-stage economic cycle characterized by innovation (currently represented by AI stocks) and potential market fragility. He warns investors to be cautious, highlighting that a handful of tech stocks are artificially propping up market indices while many underlying stocks are struggling. Vermeulen recommends investors follow price trends, manage risk carefully, and be prepared to move capital quickly between asset classes.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:39 – Gold’s Current Price Action
00:02:10 – Parabolic Moves and Corrections
00:05:08 – Bullish Precious Metals Outlook
00:07:27 – Fundamentals vs Technicals
00:08:14 – 2007 Market Comparison
00:14:25 – Upcoming Rally Seasonality
00:17:30 – Investor Sentiment and Targets
00:20:50 – Asset Revesting Framework
00:23:12 – Risk Management Strategies
00:26:11 – Economic Cycle AI Bubble
00:29:39 – Financial Reset Predictions
00:33:01 – Miners and Juniors Potential
00:37:25 – Copper Oil US Dollar
00:44:32 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/
X: https://x.com/TheTechTraders
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.
Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.
A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Quinton Hennigh to the show. Quinton Hennigh is an Internationally Renowned Economic Geologist who provides critical insights into the current state of mineral exploration and mining. Hennigh highlights a significant decline in metal discovery rates over the past decades, attributing this to major mining companies abandoning their internal exploration efforts and shifting responsibilities to junior exploration companies.
Hennigh’s current strategy focuses on acquiring assets with unrecognized exploration potential, particularly in underexplored regions like Bolivia, Argentina, and Japan. He emphasizes the importance of targeting large-scale deposits that would attract major mining companies’ interest, believing that it requires nearly the same effort to explore a small project as a potentially world-class one.
The discussion critically examines the current mining exploration landscape, with Hennigh expressing concern about the proliferation of junior mining companies. He argues that approximately 90% of these companies lack direction and technical capability, creating an inefficient market flooded with speculative ventures. This overcrowding has led to misallocation of capital and a diminishing pool of technical expertise in the mining sector.
Hennigh is particularly critical of current industry practices, including the royalty and streaming models, which he describes as “parasitic” to mining companies. He also highlights challenges in permitting processes and regulatory compliance, suggesting these bureaucratic hurdles significantly impede mining development. Looking forward, Hennigh advocates for more efficient capital deployment, reducing permitting complexities, and attracting younger talent to the mining industry.
He sees potential in unexplored regions and believes that with the right approach, significant mineral discoveries are still possible. His strategy involves identifying undervalued assets with substantial exploration potential, leveraging modern geological understanding to unlock value that previous explorers might have overlooked.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:43 – Under-exploration Crisis
00:01:07 – Dropping Discovery Rates
00:01:40 – Majors vs Juniors Exploration
00:02:21 – Value of Discoveries
00:03:40 – Investment Opportunities Spotlight
00:05:20 – Evaluating Project Upside
00:07:05 – Preferred Geology Types
00:09:45 – Brownfield vs Greenfield Approach
00:11:31 – Jurisdiction Preferences Discussed
00:18:23 – Too Many Juniors Critique
00:25:54 – Industry Talent Shortage
00:29:45 – Permitting and NI 43-101 Issues
00:34:17 – Royalties and Streams Critique
00:36:08 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.crescat.net/
Quinton is an economic geologist with 40+ years of operating and investment experience in the precious metals mining industry. He earned a PhD in Geology and Geochemistry from the Colorado School of Mines. He worked as an exploration geologist for major global mining firms including Homestake Mining (now Barrick Gold), Newcrest Mining, and Newmont Mining.
He later led several exploration-focused mining firms as an executive. Dr. Hennigh joined Crescat in 2021 as a member of the investment team. Quinton now acts in an advisory role. Since 2023, he has also served as Chairman and CEO of San Cristobal Mining (SCM), a Crescat activist investment and leading worldwide producer of silver and zinc. SCM’s acquisition of Minera San Cristobal from Sumitomo in 2023 and the advancement of its Isidorito silver deposit in Bolivia are among Quinton’s outstanding career achievements.
He has made valuable contributions to other successful projects that include Kirkland Lake Gold’s acquisition of the Fosterville mine in Australia and the discovery and advancement of various tier-1 mineral assets worldwide, including New Found Gold’s Queensway discovery in Newfoundland, Eloro Resources’ Iska Iska silver/polymetallic deposit in Bolivia, Snowline Gold’s Valley deposit in the Yukon, and Goliath Resources’ Surebet gold discovery in British Columbia among others.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes John Feneck to the show. John Feneck is CEO Feneck Consulting Group. The discussion centers on gold markets, investment strategies, and critical mineral opportunities. Feneck provides insights into the current gold market, noting that while there have been recent price fluctuations, major banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and HSBC are bullish, with price targets ranging from $4,900 to $5,000 for the next year.
Discussing gold miners, Feneck highlights that the GDX ETF has broken out to new all-time highs, with producers like Newmont seeing significant growth. He believes junior miners still represent substantial value, with the GDXJ ETF trading well below its 2011-2012 peak. His investment approach combines value investing with technical analysis, focusing on a diversified portfolio of 60-70 stocks to manage risk. Feneck is particularly enthusiastic about critical minerals, especially tungsten and antimony, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns. He sees significant opportunity in companies like Guardian Metals and Triumph Gold, which have strategic positions in these critical minerals.
His investment philosophy emphasizes understanding company management, project fundamentals, and potential near-term catalysts. The conversation also touches on the challenges of mineral exploration and development, particularly in the United States, where permitting processes can take years. Feneck believes there’s growing political momentum to accelerate critical mineral development, with initiatives like Trump’s executive orders aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese mineral supplies.
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/feneckconsult
YouTube: https://youtube.com/feneckcommoditiesreport
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/feneckcommoditiesreport
E-Mail: mailto:john.feneck@yahoo.com
Website/Newsletter: https://www.feneckconsulting.com/
John’s upcoming conferences: May 17-19, 2026 at Grand Hyatt, Washington, DC and May 20-22, 2026 at Four Seasons, Fort Lauderdale, FL on the oceanfront. Details to come: https://topshelf-partners.com/
John Feneck is CEO of Feneck Consulting Group. He began his career in 1992 as an equity analyst for Merrill Lynch’s global allocation fund. From 1993 to 2019 he held senior executive roles at Merrill Lynch Funds (now BlackRock) and J.P. Morgan Chase Funds, where he ranked #1 in gross and net sales once at Merrill Lynch and three times at J.P. Morgan (among 40 peers).
Since 2017 he has contributed articles to Kitco—becoming a regular contributor in 2021—and has appeared as a featured guest. He’s delivered over 250 client seminars and webinars, spoken at 12 global commodities events, and in 2017 joined Sprott’s precious metals portfolio-management team. There he developed a proprietary methodology combining technical analysis with direct insights from company management, advocating a “go anywhere” strategy and a diversified portfolio of 25–50 resource stocks to navigate the sector’s volatility.
In September 2019 he founded Feneck Consulting Group, helping small- and mid-cap metals and mining companies raise brand awareness and advising high-net-worth advisors on market opportunities and risks. He holds Series 7, Series 63, CMFC and CIMA Level 1 certifications (though he is not a licensed advisor) and focuses on consulting. Based in Scottsdale, AZ, he’s a single dad to an 11-year-old daughter and spends weekends as a professional musician, athlete and traveler.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Brien Lundin to the show. Brien Lundin is Editor of ‘The Gold Newsletter.com’ & Host of the New Orlean’s Investor Conference. Lundin discusses the current gold market, emphasizing that despite recent volatility, the fundamental factors driving the bull market remain strong. He believes the current market is part of a secular bull market with potential for gold prices to reach between $6,000 to $8,000, and potentially even higher in a significant monetary reset scenario. Central bank buying and the ongoing “debasement trade” continue to support gold’s upward trajectory.
Regarding mining stocks, Lundin argues that miners are still significantly undervalued. He anticipates that upcoming earnings reports will demonstrate the robust economics of gold projects at current prices. He recommends focusing on larger producers like Newmont and Newcrest in the near term, while also highlighting opportunities among developers and exploration companies. Lundin is optimistic about the increasing capital flow into the mining sector, viewing it as a positive development despite concerns about “dumb money”. He sees this as part of a broader commodity super cycle affecting multiple metals, with particularly strong potential for base metals and energy metals due to supply constraints and growing demand.
On silver, Lundin is bullish, noting the metal’s potential for significant price appreciation. He highlights the inelastic supply of silver, with 70% of production being a byproduct of other metal mining, and expects industrial demand to consume all available mine supply in the coming years.
The conversation also touched on other commodities like copper, vanadium, and zinc, with Lundin expressing optimism about their long-term potential driven by supply constraints and increasing demand. He emphasized the importance of understanding the sector, spreading risk, and being patient with investments. Lundin concluded by promoting his upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference, describing it as the longest-running investment event in the world, featuring numerous expert speakers across geopolitics, macroeconomics, and metals investing.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:44 – Gold Bull Market Status
00:03:41 – Historical Bull Parallels
00:05:41 – Gold Revaluation Potential
00:08:57 – Dollar Reserve Decline
00:11:22 – Global Liquidity Trends
00:14:00 – Owning Gold Insurance
00:16:04 – Miners Undervaluation Explained
00:19:31 – Best Producer Values
00:22:11 – Mining Market Health
00:29:48 – Commodity Super Cycle
00:30:14 – Silver Supply Dynamics
00:38:43 – Evaluating Junior Miners
00:53:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/Brien_Lundin
Website: https://goldnewsletter.com/
Conference: https://neworleansconference.com/
With a career spanning four decades in the investment markets, Brien Lundin serves as president and CEO of Jefferson Financial, Inc., a highly regarded producer of investment-oriented events and publisher of investment newsletters and special reports. Under the Jefferson Financial umbrella, Mr. Lundin serves as publisher and editor of Gold Newsletter, the publication that has been the cornerstone of precious metals advisories since 1971, and as the host of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference, the oldest and most respected investment event of its kind.
As editor of Gold Newsletter, Mr. Lundin covers not only resource stocks, but also the entire world of investing, from small-caps of every type to macroeconomics and geopolitical issues that ultimately affect every investor. As host of the New Orleans Investment Conference, Mr. Lundin has annually brought the giants of investing, economics and geopolitics together in intimate presentations with many of today’s most sophisticated private investors. In all of these endeavors, Mr. Lundin has striven to burnish the brilliant legacy of the late James U. Blanchard III, his great friend and the founder of both Gold Newsletter and the New Orleans Investment Conference.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Edward Bonner to the show. Edward Bonner is an Investment Associate at Sprott Asset Management USA, Inc. The discussion centers on the current state of gold and precious metals markets, with Bonner offering insights into the emerging gold bull market and broader commodity trends. He argues that gold remains significantly under-owned, with most portfolios holding less than one percent of gold compared to historical averages of six to seven percent. He believes the current market is in the early stages of a potential bull market, driven by factors such as monetary debasement, fiscal largesse, and central bank buying. The recent geopolitical tensions, including the freezing of Russian assets, have prompted central banks to increase their gold holdings.
They explore various indicators for gold’s potential, including the M2 money supply and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gold ratio. Bonner suggests that gold is currently an attractive hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. He sees particular value in gold mining stocks, especially growth producers, developers, and late-stage explorers. When evaluating mining projects, Bonner emphasizes the importance of management teams, jurisdiction, and project metallurgy. He highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector, given the significant free cash flow of senior producers.
Beyond gold, Edward discusses other potentially undervalued commodities, including platinum, natural gas, and vanadium. He sees interesting opportunities in geographical regions like the Guyana Shield, parts of the Arabian Nubian Shield, Mexico, and Argentina, while cautioning about the challenges of exploration and jurisdictional risks.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:40 – Gold Market Pullback Analysis
00:02:28 – Long-Term Gold Sentiment
00:05:01 – GDX ETF Outflows Discussion
00:06:22 – Historical Bull Market Parallels
00:08:39 – Key Economic Indicators Tracked
00:10:55 – De-Dollarization and Central Banks
00:13:04 – Value in Gold Miners
00:15:03 – Project Quality and Management
00:18:40 – Platinum Supply Demand Imbalance
00:21:59 – Unloved Commodities Overview
00:25:07 – Vanadium Market Crash Course
00:26:55 – Emerging Geographic Exploration Areas
00:33:39 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://sprott.com
X: https://x.com/sprott
Mr. Edward Bonner is a graduate of the Colorado School of Mines, with a master’s degree in Economic Geology. Prior to joining Sprott in 2021, he worked as an exploration geologist since 2011 for various junior exploration and royalty companies. His fieldwork has spanned the North and South American continents, as well as the African continent.
He specializes in porphyry systems and sed-hosted copper type deposits, but has experience exploring for, and studying, a broad range of ore deposit types. He is fluent in both English and French, and can speak Spanish and German at an advanced level. He is passionate about exploration and discovery, and takes a long-term, value-focused approach to investing. He leverages his years of industry experience and extensive knowledge base, along with the combined intellectual capital in the firm (including geology, engineering, financial analysis and portfolio management), to identify high-value investment opportunities.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rick Rule to the show. Rick Rule is Investor, Speculator, Founder & CEO of Rule Investment Media. In this comprehensive discussion, Rule provides deep insights into commodity markets, focusing on gold, oil, and various other resources. Regarding gold, Rick believes the precious metal is positioned for significant growth over the next five to ten years. He anticipates a potential 75% decline in the US dollar’s purchasing power, which could translate to a three-fold increase in gold’s nominal price. Rule emphasizes that while gold’s trajectory won’t be a smooth ascent, investors should be prepared for volatility and cyclical movements.
In the energy sector, Rule is particularly bullish on oil and gas. He argues that despite narratives about alternative energy, fossil fuels will remain the dominant global energy source for decades. He sees tremendous value in companies like Exxon, which he believes is trading at a 50% discount to its net present value. Rule suggests that the industry’s ongoing infrastructure investments and technological advancements make oil and gas an attractive investment opportunity.
Rule also shares perspectives on various commodities, including nickel, copper, zinc, and uranium. He highlights the significant underinvestment in these sectors over the past decades, which creates potential long-term investment opportunities. For instance, he sees a substantial copper supply deficit emerging in the next five years due to decades of underinvestment.
Beyond commodities, Rule discusses his involvement with Rule Investment Media and Battle Bank, offering investors resources to analyze natural resource stocks and providing innovative banking services. He encourages investors to conduct thorough research, be patient, and look for opportunities in sectors experiencing market disfavor.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:42 – Gold Market Outlook
00:03:40 – 1970s Gold Parallel
00:06:00 – US Debt Liabilities
00:06:21 – Profit Taking Strategies
00:08:36 – Private Placement Insights
00:12:22 – Gold Bull Volatility
00:16:27 – Lagging Commodities Review
00:18:58 – Oil Gas Opportunities
00:26:38 – Mining vs Oil Differences
00:32:41 – Iron Ore Valuation
00:35:47 – Nickel Market Dynamics
00:41:46 – Copper Supply Deficit
00:48:41 – Uranium Term Pricing
00:51:36 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/@realrickrule
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Lobo Tiggre to the show. Lobo Tiggre is Author and Founder of the Independent Speculator Founder and CEO of Louis James LLC. The discussion centers on the current state of commodities, with a particular focus on gold, silver, copper, and uranium.
Tiggre provides a nuanced perspective on the gold market, highlighting several key factors driving its current rise. He notes central bank buying, portfolio rebalancing, and increasing mainstream interest as significant catalysts. While bullish on gold, he cautions against assuming a straight upward trajectory, emphasizing the potential for corrections. He views gold primarily as financial insurance, recommending investors consider their exposure based on global economic uncertainties.
Regarding commodities, Tiggre argues that inflationary trends and global economic transformations are creating a potential super-cycle. He is particularly enthusiastic about copper, citing strong demand from electrification, AI data centers, and significant supply constraints. He expects a multi-year, potentially multi-decade bull market in copper, though he’s waiting for strategic entry points.
Lobo also discusses uranium, presenting a bullish case driven by increasing global nuclear energy adoption and constrained supply. He sees a robust market for the next few years, barring a major nuclear incident. His investment approach remains fundamentally value-oriented, seeking opportunities when assets are undervalued. The discussion explores a broader macroeconomic perspective, with Tiggre describing a stagflationary outlook. He points to weakening labor markets and persistent inflation as key indicators, suggesting economic challenges ahead. His investment philosophy emphasizes disciplined speculation, focusing on value propositions and avoiding momentum-driven investments.
Throughout the conversation, Tiggre consistently advises investors to maintain perspective, avoid emotional decision-making, and be prepared for market fluctuations. He recommends having a strategic approach to investing, being willing to rotate between sectors, and always maintaining a critical view of market narratives.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:53 – Gold Market Surge
00:04:11 – Profit Taking Strategy
00:06:06 – Historical Bull Parallels
00:10:59 – Gold Bull Duration
00:12:57 – Bullion as Insurance
00:17:09 – Final Gold Bull Thesis
00:19:44 – Valuing Gold Miners
00:25:02 – Silver Price Squeeze
00:32:15 – Copper Demand Drivers
00:40:29 – Uranium Supply Constraints
00:46:55 – Critical Minerals Wars
00:53:17 – Stagflationary Environment
00:56:15 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
X: https://x.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Matt Smith to the show. Matt Smith is Co-Author of “The Preparation” and Host of “Doug Casey’s Take” Podcast. The conversation centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and potential global financial reset. Smith discusses the unprecedented rise in gold prices, noting it has topped $4,040 and suggesting this bull market is unique. He believes the United States and China may have an unspoken agreement to use gold as a “liquidity sink” to manage massive economic challenges, particularly the enormous $175 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
Smith argues that the current gold price surge is not just about preservation of capital, but potentially wealth creation. He points to historical comparisons, such as housing prices measured in gold terms, which have dramatically shifted over the past decades. Morgan Stanley’s recent recommendation of 20% portfolio allocation to gold underscores the metal’s growing importance. The discussion explores broader geopolitical and economic trends, including potential monetary resets and the role of critical minerals.
Smith is skeptical of traditional higher education, instead advocating for a more experiential learning approach outlined in his book “The Preparation”, which he co-authored with Doug Casey. Regarding gold and precious metals, Smith believes we are in the early stages of a significant market transformation. He sees gold as uniquely positioned to serve as a monetary reset mechanism, with potentially dramatic price increases ahead. He suggests the price could reach extraordinary levels, as part of a broader economic recalibration.
The conversation touches on various global economic dynamics, including trade wars, critical mineral strategies, and potential geopolitical shifts. Throughout, Smith maintains a pragmatic yet cautious perspective on current economic trends, emphasizing the potential for significant structural changes in the global monetary system.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:55 – Gold Market Trends
00:05:12 – Liquidity Sink Concept
00:10:20 – U.S./China & Brics Currency
00:11:56 – Tariffs and Tactics
00:14:00 – Stablecoins and Latin America
00:16:35 – Portfolio Gold Allocation
00:21:29 – Miners and Junior Equities
00:24:33 – Critical Minerals Investments
00:31:05 – Geopolitical Conflicts Analysis
00:37:07 – Deep Sea Mining Doubts
00:40:00 – New Book ‘The Preparation’
00:48:09 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ThePrepMS
X: https://x.com/mattpheus
Substack: https://www.crisisinvesting.com/
Podcast: https://share.google/I5YdX8JrTrMWhobOM
Matt Smith is the guy that does the podcast with Doug Casey. In a past life – Founder of Royalty Exchange, a jobs portal in the late 1990’s, an ad agency, a marketing analytics business, and several niche publishing companies. I live on a ranch in Uruguay.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The comprehensive discussion focuses on the oil and gas markets, commodity cycles, and investment opportunities. Young provides a compelling thesis for oil and natural gas, centered on significant global underinvestment in exploration and production over the past decade. He argues that the current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, which paradoxically creates an attractive investment opportunity. The fundamental driver of his bullish stance is the persistent 1% annual demand growth for oil, which has remained consistent despite predictions of decline due to electric vehicles and alternative energy.
Regarding supply dynamics, Young highlights the dramatic reduction in exploration and capital expenditures in the oil and gas sector. He notes that global oil production investments have dropped from around $900 billion annually to approximately $500 billion, with exploration expenditures becoming a tiny fraction of previous levels. This underinvestment, combined with natural field decline rates, suggests a potential supply crunch in the coming years. Young is equally optimistic about natural gas, citing growing demand from data centers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. He sees potential for significant price appreciation driven by increasing demand and limited new production capacity.
In the equity markets, Young finds the most attractive opportunities in small-cap oil producers and, particularly, oil services companies. He emphasizes that surviving services companies are exceptionally well-managed and can be purchased at significant discounts to replacement cost, often with attractive free cash flow yields.
Drawing parallels with the precious metals sector, Young sees similar market dynamics emerging in oil and other commodities. He believes the current market setup resembles previous commodity cycles, where intense pessimism precedes substantial price appreciation. To share his insights, Young has launched a newsletter called Bison Insights, where he provides structured investment ideas and analysis in the energy and commodities space.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:36 – Oil Bull Case Overview
00:03:30 – Bearish Sentiment Analysis
00:08:24 – Underinvestment in Exploration
00:11:40 – Supply Demand Balances
00:16:45 – Shale Production Decline Debate
00:20:50 – Global Oil Demand Growth
00:25:40 – Natural Gas Bull Thesis
00:31:35 – NatGas Discounts & Demand
00:38:03 – Geopolitical Supply Risks
00:42:09 – Fair Oil Price Assessment
00:44:46 – Oil Gas Equity Opportunities
00:51:19 – Commodity Complex Parallels
00:57:50 – Precious Metals Outlook
01:03:50 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Substack: https://bisoninsights.info
X: https://x.com/BisonInsights
Website: https://bisoninterests.com
Joshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences.
Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Greg Orrell to the show. Greg Orrell is President and Portfolio Manager, OCM Gold Fund. In this engaging discussion, Orrell provides deep insights into the current gold market, highlighting the significant price movements and underlying economic factors driving precious metals’ performance. Orrell explains that gold’s current surge, over 50% this year, is primarily driven by global government debt and currency debasement. He argues that central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a stability anchor, with many countries looking to diversify away from the US dollar.
The unprecedented monetary landscape has created a unique environment where gold is seen as a critical financial instrument. As a seasoned investor with 40 years of experience, Orrell describes himself as a long-term value investor focused on gold and silver mining companies. His investment strategy involves carefully selecting mining companies across different stages – from major producers to exploration companies – with a keen eye on management quality, project feasibility, and potential for long-term value creation.
Orrell is particularly critical of mining companies that pursue “profitless prosperity” by unnecessarily lowering cut-off grades or extending mine life without creating shareholder value. He emphasizes the importance of margin expansion and maintaining disciplined investment approaches. The discussion also explores the broader economic context, including government debt, potential currency challenges, and the shifting global monetary landscape. Orrell believes we are in a unique monetary cycle driven by declining confidence in traditional currency systems.
Regarding investment opportunities, Orrell suggests investors should maintain a 5-10% position in gold and silver assets as a form of monetary insurance. He sees significant potential in gold and silver miners, particularly as central banks and international markets increasingly recognize these metals’ strategic importance.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:25 – Guest Background Story
00:04:19 – Investment Philosophy Overview
00:05:38 – Gold Market Surge Analysis
00:08:45 – Government Shutdown Effects
00:12:30 – Historical Currency Parallels
00:16:28 – Gold & Central Banks
00:19:10 – Juniors & OCM Strategies
00:28:23 – Finding Value In Miners
00:34:04 – Dilution & Other Concerns
00:42:07 – Silver Miners & Value
00:48:15 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://ocmgoldfund.com/
The OCM Gold Fund has been managed by its long-time portfolio manager Greg Orrell since 1996. He is one of the longest tenured gold fund portfolio managers in the industry. With over 40 years of investment experience in the precious metals mining sector along with a deep understanding of gold’s monetary role, Greg is uniquely qualified to manage the assets of the fund. The specialized nature of the gold sector demands experience to evaluate and identify opportunities and cycles within the sector while managing the associated risks. Greg’s experience and belief in gold as money is what sets the OCM Gold Fund apart and aligns the Fund with its shareholders.
Greg received his BS in Economics and Business Administration from Saint Mary’s College of California. Greg is also the president of Orrell Capital Management, investment adviser to the Fund, and received his BS in Economics and Business Administration from Saint Mary’s College of California.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Garrett Goggin to the show. Garrett Goggin is CFA, CMT, MBA, GOLD ANALYST, & Founder of The Golden Portfolio. In this in-depth discussion, Goggin provides a comprehensive overview of the current gold market, highlighting significant global financial shifts and unprecedented economic conditions driving gold’s value. Goggin argues that the current gold market is fundamentally different from previous cycles, citing massive U.S. debt (now at $37 trillion), foreign central banks moving away from U.S. treasuries, and increasing gold purchases.
Garrett believes the gold market has substantial room for growth, noting that average investors currently have less than 1% of their assets invested in gold. The analyst is particularly bullish on gold mining companies, especially developers with undervalued assets. He emphasizes finding opportunities where market valuations significantly lag the intrinsic net asset value (NAV) of mining projects. Goggin’s investment strategy focuses on high-grade exploration projects, developers near production, and royalty companies, which he considers the lowest-risk gold investment strategy. Management quality is crucial in Goggin’s analysis. He looks for executives who create shareholder value, avoid excessive dilution, and have a track record of building successful mining operations.
His portfolio approach involves equal-weighting investments across multiple holdings, allowing winners to naturally grow in portfolio allocation. Regarding market sentiment, Goggin believes the “masses aren’t here yet” in the gold market. He anticipates institutional investors will be “drawn kicking and screaming” into gold as traditional assets become overvalued.
He’s especially interested in the potential silver market, which he sees as currently undervalued relative to gold. Goggin’s Golden Portfolio, which includes royalty investments and developer/explorer positions, has reportedly achieved impressive returns, with his GPIV product up 500% in two years. He remains confident that significant value opportunities exist in the gold mining sector, driven by fundamental economic shifts and undervaluation of quality mining assets.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:55 – Garrett’s Background
00:01:46 – Current Gold Price Analysis
00:06:28 – Quantitative Easing Impacts
00:10:32 – Historical Gold Boom Parallels
00:13:59 – Grasberg Mine Slippage Issues
00:16:24 – Large Gold Miners Evaluation
00:19:14 – Miner Investment Criteria
00:24:15 – Royalty Companies Advantages
00:27:28 – Management Quality Assessment
00:31:26 – Portfolio Allocation Strategies
00:34:40 – Silver Market Outlook
00:39:41 – Golden Portfolio Overview
00:40:50 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website: https://GoldenPortfolio.com
X: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin’s career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin’s conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn’t contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada’s (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
Credentialed with Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT) designations, Goggin’s educational background includes MS and MBA degrees from Babson College, renowned for its business programs.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa to the show. Tavi Costa is Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital. Costa shares a compelling personal journey from Brazil, where experiencing hyperinflation shaped his financial perspective, to becoming a tennis player and eventually a finance professional. His background in macro analysis has enabled him to identify significant market turning points, such as predicting China’s potential economic challenges and the emerging commodity trends. Costa emphasizes the importance of independent research and developing strong conviction in investment strategies.
He discusses the current bullish environment for gold and silver, highlighting a notable chart showing central banks increasingly preferring gold over treasuries. He believes the current gold market has substantial potential, potentially surpassing historical performance due to unprecedented economic conditions. Regarding silver, Costa presents an intriguing 45-year cup and handle technical pattern, suggesting the potential for silver prices to reach triple digits. He argues that limited silver exploration assets and increasing demand from various sectors could drive significant price appreciation. Moreover, he sees tremendous opportunity in mining companies, noting their impressive profit margins and potential for institutional attraction.
Costa is also becoming bullish on energy, presenting a contrarian view based on declining oil inventories, reduced drilling activities, and potential increased energy consumption from technological developments like AI. He sees the energy sector as an undervalued asset class with significant medium-term potential.
At Crescat Capital, Costa focuses on early-stage exploration companies, employing a venture capital approach in the mining space. He believes in actively helping management improve capital allocation and exploration strategies. His investment philosophy centers on identifying intrinsic value in companies before market recognition, with a particular focus on metals and resources. Throughout the discussion, Costa emphasizes flexibility in investment thinking, the importance of independent research, and the potential for significant shifts in market perception toward traditionally underappreciated sectors like mining and energy.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:31 – Welcoming Tavi Costa
00:00:59 – Tavi’s Early Background
00:04:31 – Macro Expertise and Conviction
00:09:24 – Gold vs Treasuries Chart
00:15:08 – Silver Cup and Handle
00:19:12 – Silver Supply and Demand
00:22:45 – Miners Profit Margins
00:27:42 – Crescat Portfolio Positioning
00:32:28 – Bullish Oil and Energy
00:38:11 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
X: https://x.com/tavicosta
X: https://x.com/crescat_capital
Website: https://crescat.net
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/otavio-tavi-costa-76368628
Disclaimer: The opinions and information shared by Tavi in this discussion are his own, and not necessarily those of Crescat. Any investments discussed may or may not be held by Crescat. Investments carry risk including risk of loss.
Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Shawn Khunkhun to the show. Shawn Khunkhun is CEO, President, & Director, Dolly Varden Silver Corp. In this podcast, Khunkhun provides an in-depth analysis of the silver market, highlighting its unique position as both a monetary and industrial metal. With a background rooted in mining and precious metals, Khunkhun is deeply bullish on silver, believing the current market conditions are exceptionally favorable.
Khunkhun emphasizes that silver is experiencing a significant supply deficit, consuming 200-250 million ounces more annually than current production and recycling can provide. He argues that silver is critically important in the emerging green economy, being essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, and various industrial applications. Historically, silver has maintained a 10-15:1 ratio with gold, which aligns with its natural abundance in the earth’s crust.
The discussion reveals that silver is currently trading well below its inflation-adjusted historical highs, suggesting substantial potential for price appreciation. Khunkhun predicts silver could breakthrough $50 and potentially reach $75 or even $150 when accounting for inflation. He points to increasing monetary demand, central bank interest, and growing investor awareness as key drivers for silver’s potential surge.
Regarding investment strategies, Shawn recommends various approaches for exposure to silver, including physical bullion, royalty companies like Wheaton Precious Metals, silver-focused ETFs, and primary silver mining companies. He highlights the limited number of primary silver producers and the challenges of developing new mining projects. He is particularly optimistic about silver’s long-term prospects, citing fundamental supply constraints, increasing industrial demand, and its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Shawn believes the current market represents a unique opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a historically undervalued asset with significant potential for growth.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:52 – Sean’s Personal Background
00:02:38 – Why Silver Now
00:04:18 – Silver Price Crunch Explained
00:10:51 – Demand Dynamics Breakdown
00:15:07 – Central Bank Silver Demand
00:16:33 – Investor Demand Awakening
00:20:19 – Mining Supply Challenges
00:22:35 – Recycling Supply Potential
00:26:06 – Historical Price Parallels
00:32:03 – Gold Price Targets
00:34:33 – Price Suppression Discussion
00:36:26 – Investing in Silver Miners
00:40:05 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Website:: https://dollyvardensilver.com
X: https://x.com/SilverVarden
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/dolly-varden-silver-corp
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCK4YE6ftyxv4G-6zu9BYJvgerved=0
Mr. Shawn Khunkhun has over 20 years of expertise in capital markets and mineral exploration, with a strong focus on creating shareholder value. Over his career, he has facilitated over $2 billion in capital raises, playing a transformative role in advancing exploration, development, and production companies. In his leadership roles as CEO, Director, and Executive Chairman, Mr. Khunkhun has been instrumental in elevating the profiles of undervalued companies and driving strategic growth.
Mr. Khunkhun’s success in incubating and scaling companies through capital raises, acquisitions, and spinouts is powered by an extensive network of high-net-worth investors, private equity, institutional investors, analysts, brokers, and bankers.
Mr. Khunkhun currently serves as a Director of Goldshore Resources and Gladiator Metals and as Director & Executive Chairman of Strike Point Gold. Additionally, he advises West Red Lake Gold Mines, Nations Royalty, and NexGold and is the Founder of Argenta Silver.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Adrian Day back to the show. Adrian Day is CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management. In this comprehensive discussion, Day provides insights into the current precious metals market, highlighting several key trends and investment opportunities. Day argues that the fundamental reasons for gold investment remain strong, particularly from central banks and wealthy individuals concerned about fiscal instability. Central banks continue to diversify away from dollar assets, with dollar holdings in foreign reserves dropping from 75% to around 47.5% in recent years. This trend, coupled with geopolitical tensions and concerns about dollar weaponization, suggests continued gold purchasing.
Regarding market dynamics, Day notes that generalist investors are beginning to show increased interest in gold. Recent data shows significant inflows into gold-related ETFs, with $3.3 billion entering the GLD in just one month. He believes the current economic environment – characterized by potential interest rate cuts, stubborn inflation, and a weakening dollar – creates an ideal scenario for gold investment. Day sees significant potential in gold mining stocks, arguing that despite recent price increases, valuations remain attractive. He highlights opportunities in both large-cap producers like Barrick and intermediate-sized companies like Equinox.
For silver, he suggests the market remains promising, with potential for meaningful price increases due to unique supply and demand characteristics. In the exploration and junior mining sector, Day sees substantial untapped potential. Many companies remain undervalued, and he believes the broader sector has yet to experience a significant uplift. He emphasizes the importance of patience and quality management when investing in exploration companies.
Regarding other metals, Day expresses particular enthusiasm for silver and maintains a neutral stance on oil, preferring to focus on gold, silver, copper, and uranium. His investment approach remains globally diversified, sector-agnostic, and focused on understanding the fundamental value of potential investments.
Guest Links:
Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world.
He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010).
Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
Your host Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Michael Gentile to the show. Michael Gentile is Strategic Investor & Co-Founder of Bastion Asset Management. With a background in finance and commodities, Gentile has developed a unique investment approach in the junior mining sector, combining value investing principles with a contrarian perspective. Gentile’s investment strategy is rooted in identifying inefficient market opportunities, particularly in junior resource stocks. He focuses on companies with potential to become mines, looking for key attributes such as grade, scale, infrastructure, and management ownership. His approach involves making initial small investments (around 1% of capital) in companies with promising geological prospects, with the potential to increase stakes as companies demonstrate successful execution.
Michael sees the current commodity cycle, particularly in gold, as being in its early stages. He believes we are entering a period of monetary devaluation, drawing parallels to the 1970s economic environment. Gentile argues that the unprecedented levels of government debt and the challenges of managing interest rates create a favorable backdrop for gold and other hard assets. His due diligence process is comprehensive, examining factors like drilling efficiency, management ownership, and jurisdictional risks.
Unlike many investors, Michael prefers 100% ownership of projects and is cautious about joint ventures or royalty companies. Gentile looks for companies with the potential to become significant producers, focusing on the valuation and future potential of investments. Gentile’s investment philosophy emphasizes long-term thinking, often holding investments for 3-10 years and looking for opportunities where he can potentially make 20-50 times his initial investment. He is currently most bullish on gold, with secondary interest in copper and a watchful eye on oil. As part of his commitment to sharing knowledge, Gentile is planning a European road show in October, bringing six of his key mining investments to meet potential investors across five cities, offering insights into his investment approach and the junior mining sector.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:05 – Entry into Commodities
00:03:40 – Competitive Advantage
00:06:11 – Making Long-Term Bets
00:11:15 – Commodity Cycles Lessons
00:18:12 – Current Cycle Stage
00:21:02 – Historical Parallels
00:30:00 – Current Positioning
00:32:30 – Personal Portfolio Allocation
00:36:40 – Due Diligence Process
00:44:38 – Business Models Variety
00:48:50 – Jurisdiction Risk Concerns
00:52:00 – Valuation Assessment
00:55:26 – Warrants Strategy
00:58:55 – Europe Roadshow & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552
Website: https://www.bastion-am.com/
Mining & Metals European Roadshow: https://www.amvestcapital.com/gentile-euro-roadshow-2025
Michael Gentile, CFA is Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Bastion Asset Management. Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA)
Your host Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeff Phillips to the show. Jeff Phillips is Private Investor and President of Global Market Development. Phillips discusses his extensive experience in the natural resource market, having witnessed three bull markets over his 30-year career. He believes the current market may be entering a significant commodity super cycle driven by multiple factors, including currency devaluation, under-investment in resource exploration, and geopolitical shifts toward securing strategic mineral supplies.
Phillips emphasizes two critical criteria when investing in junior mining companies: structure and people. He looks for companies where management owns a significant portion of shares and has a proven track record of success. The ideal investment, in his view, involves well-structured companies with experienced leadership who have previously built or sold successful ventures. His investment strategy focuses on commodities like gold, silver, copper, uranium, and rare earth elements. Phillips is particularly interested in jurisdictions like North America and parts of South America, avoiding regions with high political risk. He sees emerging trends of tech companies and governments increasingly investing in mineral supply chains, which he believes will drive the resource super cycle.
Jeff cautions that the junior mining sector is extremely high-risk and not suitable for most investors. He recommends a disciplined approach, including maintaining a focused portfolio of 8-14 carefully selected positions and seeking advice from experienced professionals. His investment philosophy centers on finding companies with potential to develop tier-one assets and create meaningful value. The interview highlights Phillips’ belief that successful speculation in the junior mining space requires understanding company structure, management quality, and geological potential.
He advises investors to conduct thorough research, seek expert guidance, and remember the industry adage: “The best way to make a small fortune in the junior mining sector is to start with a large fortune.”
Timestamp References:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:48 – Thesis of the resource super cycle
00:04:10 – Drivers of the super cycle
00:05:29 – Role of under-investment
00:10:00 – Jeff’s background and current focus
00:14:22 – Evaluating management expertise
00:18:10 – Skin in the game and share types
00:21:54 – Preferred business models
00:28:05 – Geological criteria for projects
00:29:50 – Luck vs. positioning
00:32:03 – Commodities of interest
00:36:40 – Jurisdictional preferences
00:38:49 – Valuing junior explorers
00:41:32 – Jeff’s role and value-add
00:44:44 – Wrap Up
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Willem Middelkoop to the show. Willem Middelkoop is Author and Founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund. In this wide-ranging interview, Middelkoop discusses the evolving global financial landscape, emphasizing that the world is entering the “endgame” of the US dollar-centered monetary system that has dominated since World War II. Middelkoop argues that the Ukraine conflict and ongoing geopolitical tensions represent a broader struggle between the West and emerging powers like China and the BRICS nations. He believes the weaponization of the dollar has accelerated the shift away from US financial hegemony, with gold emerging as a strategic asset for alternative economic powers.
Discussing market dynamics, Middelkoop suggests we are approaching a significant market top, potentially with a correction of 70-80% over the next decade. He recommends a diversified investment approach, suggesting investors allocate assets across physical gold, real estate, equities, and digital assets like Bitcoin. His Commodity Discovery Fund has survived and learned through challenging market conditions since 2008, positioning itself for what he sees as an emerging commodity boom.
Willem is particularly bullish on precious metals, especially silver, which he considers undervalued and potentially reaching $100 per ounce within five to ten years. He attributes this potential to fundamental supply constraints and increasing industrial demand. The ongoing debasement of currencies through continuous money printing provides further support for hard assets. Critically, Middelkoop warns that the real economic, sovereign, and currency crises are yet to unfold. He anticipates central banks will continue printing money to prevent social and political instability, which will further drive inflation and asset values. His perspective emphasizes the importance of understanding systemic changes and preparing accordingly, noting that financial stability can rapidly transform into chaos.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:47 – Peace Deals & Ukraine
00:05:02 – Tariff Policy & Conflicts
00:09:20 – Mining & Manufacturing
00:15:02 – Momentum in TSX.V
00:18:43 – 2008 Commodity Bargains
00:24:24 – Inv. Relationships & Value
00:30:24 – Capital Controls & Digital
00:34:30 – Downturn Risk Scenarios
00:38:35 – Powell, Rates, Blow-Off Top?
00:40:42 – Western Instability & Inflation
00:46:36 – Commodities & Positioning
00:48:52 – Diversifying Against Risk
00:49:37 – Balancing a Portfolio
00:55:52 – Thoughts on $100 Silver
01:01:08 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Commodity Discover Fund: https://www.cdfund.com
X: https://x.com/@wmiddelkoop
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=84858815
Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ.
Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis’s onset in his book “Als de dollar valt” (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were “De permanente oliecrisis” (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, “Overleef de kredietcrisis” (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, “Goud en het geheim van geld” (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset – 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books.
The Commodity Discovery Fund was established in the summer of 2008. It started with three million euros and 22 participants. By the end of 2023, it had grown to about 2,000 participants and €104 million in assets under management.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA. Michael discusses his technical analysis of current market conditions, focusing on potential significant shifts in various financial markets. Oliver argues that the US stock market is approaching a major top, characterized by a "broadening top" pattern that suggests an impending decline. He believes the market's upside is not to be trusted, with technical momentum indicators showing weakness in major indexes like the S&P and NASDAQ. The current market represents a bubble, particularly in US markets, with an unprecedented 15-year bull run and a 19-20 fold increase in the NASDAQ 100. A key concern is the potential for market disruption in unexpected areas, such as banking, credit cards, and Bitcoin. Oliver suggests Bitcoin may be particularly vulnerable, with technical indicators showing similarities to previous market tops. He anticipates a potential implosion that could create significant financial shock waves. Regarding precious metals, Oliver is bullish on gold and especially silver. He predicts silver could reach $60-$70 by year-end, potentially outperforming gold dramatically. He sees this as part of a broader shift away from traditional financial systems, potentially leading to a new monetary reality. Oliver expects a prolonged bear market rather than a sudden crash, drawing parallels to historical market corrections. He anticipates widespread economic consequences, including potential changes to major institutions like the Federal Reserve. The dollar index is expected to continue declining, potentially dropping to 70 or lower. Commodities are another area of interest, with Oliver suggesting they're poised for a significant upward move. He believes the combination of these factors could create rapid, dramatic changes across financial markets, catching many investors off guard. The overarching theme is one of potential systemic transformation, where incremental changes suddenly erupt into major shifts, challenging existing economic assumptions and potentially reshaping financial landscapes in unexpected ways.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Michael Kao to the show. Michael Kao is Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader. In this comprehensive discussion, Kao provides an in-depth analysis of the Trump 2.0 economic strategy, focusing on several key policy initiatives designed to reshape the United States' economic trajectory. He describes the current approach as navigating an "asteroid field" with strategic policy levers aimed at addressing significant economic challenges, including massive deficits, global conflicts, and critical dependencies on adversarial nations. Kao highlights four primary policy initiatives: tariffs and economic statecraft, redirecting fiscal spending, managing inflation, and containing internal and external threats. A critical component of this strategy involves what he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," where other countries and private industries shoulder fiscal responsibilities traditionally borne by the US government. This approach could potentially redirect billions of dollars in spending through trade deals, NATO commitments, and corporate reshoring initiatives. The discussion extensively explores potential deflationary mechanisms within the policy framework, including strategic tariffs, oil price management, and potential productivity gains from AI and deregulation. Kao suggests that these policies could create a "disinflationary growth" scenario, potentially allowing the US to grow its way out of its current debt challenges. Kao remains cautiously optimistic about the United States' economic future, emphasizing the importance of maintaining these strategic initiatives beyond the current presidential cycle. He believes the US has significant untapped potential on its balance sheet and that the current approach could create more favorable long-term economic conditions. The conversation also touches on geopolitical dynamics, including potential shifts in Middle Eastern relationships, China's economic challenges, and the importance of creating sustainable economic conditions that don't rely on short-term monetary manipulations. Ultimately, Kao presents a nuanced view of the current economic strategy, arguing that bold, potentially controversial initiatives might be necessary to break the US out of its current low-volatility "death spiral" and create more positive economic outcomes.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Matthew Piepenburg to the show. Matthew Piepenburg is Partner - Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, Author - Gold Matters & Rigged To Fail. In this wide-ranging discussion, Piepenburg explores several critical economic topics, including potential gold revaluation, stablecoins, and the current state of the global financial system. He argues that the United States is facing unprecedented economic challenges, characterized by massive debt levels, currency debasement, and growing global economic tensions. Regarding gold revaluation, Piepenburg suggests that while some propose dramatic scenarios like gold reaching $24,000 per ounce, the reality is more nuanced. He emphasizes that such a revaluation would be a desperate measure to address mounting debt, potentially destabilizing global currencies. The discussion highlights the complexity of such a strategy, noting that it might provide temporary relief but would not solve underlying structural economic problems. Piepenburg is particularly critical of current economic indicators, pointing out the widening wealth inequality, the struggling middle class, and the market's disconnection from economic fundamentals. He views the current stock market as a bubble sustained by liquidity and debt, warning of potential significant mean reversion. The conversation also explores alternative assets like silver and platinum, with Piepenburg viewing them as potential stores of value and speculative opportunities. He argues that gold's rising price is not a bull market, but rather a signpost of a broader currency and debt crisis. Ultimately, Piepenburg's message is one of cautious preparation rather than panic. He encourages listeners to be informed, challenge assumptions, and understand that while the current economic system faces significant challenges, it is not necessarily heading for immediate collapse. The key is to remain objective, understand the underlying trends, and make informed decisions about wealth preservation. The discussion concludes with a call for critical thinking and avoiding emotional or sensationalist approaches to understanding complex economic dynamics.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Florian Grummes to the show. Florian Grummes is Financial Analyst, Advisor, and Founder & Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting. The discussion centers on the current state of gold and silver markets, highlighting a period of consolidation following a strong rally. Grummes explains that gold has been trading in a range between $3,200 and $3,400, which he considers a healthy and bullish consolidation after a significant price increase from $2,000 to $3,500 over the past 14 months. He anticipates more market movement in September and October as traders return from summer holidays. Central bank buying remains a crucial driver for gold prices, with emerging markets like China and India continuing to diversify away from the US dollar. Grummes believes this trend could continue for five to ten years, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a strategic shift in global financial dynamics. The Shanghai Gold Exchange has become increasingly prominent, potentially challenging Western pricing mechanisms for precious metals. Regarding silver, Grummes notes a more measured approach to price movement, which he views positively. He suggests the market is building momentum more sustainably, increasing the likelihood of breaking through the $50 resistance level and potentially continuing higher to $55-$75. The discussion also touches on mining stocks, which Grummes sees as undervalued and potentially poised for significant growth. He references the Dow-to-Gold ratio as an important long-term indicator, suggesting that precious metals are likely to outperform traditional stocks in the coming years. Looking ahead, Grummes provides price targets for the end of 2024: approximately $4,000 for gold, $50 for silver, and potentially $150,000 for Bitcoin. He expects a strong final quarter across markets, with potential rate cuts and continued liquidity in the financial system. Overall, Grummes maintains an optimistic outlook on precious metals, emphasizing patience and a long-term perspective for investors.
In this podcast interview, investment manager Lawrence Leperd discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on potential signs of a "crack-up boom" and the challenges facing the US monetary system. Leperd suggests we may be entering a period of significant economic transformation, characterized by record highs in stock markets, gold, and Bitcoin, while expressing skepticism about the stability of current financial structures. The discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's potential monetary policy shifts, with Leperd believing that a new dovish Fed chairman could lead to increased money printing and inflationary pressures. He anticipates a decade of high inflation and potentially significant economic restructuring. Leperd is particularly bullish on gold, silver, and Bitcoin as hedge assets, predicting gold could reach $5,000 and Bitcoin could hit hundreds of thousands of dollars. Leperd draws parallels between the current AI investment landscape and the dot-com bubble, warning that overinvestment in AI could potentially trigger a significant economic downturn. He also discusses the possibility of a gold revaluation, suggesting that the government might eventually reset gold's value as a way to address mounting national debt. Regarding gold and silver mining stocks, Leperd sees tremendous potential for growth. He highlights that these stocks have significantly underperformed the metal prices and believes they could potentially double in the next 12-18 months as investors recognize the long-term upward trajectory of precious metals. The interview concludes with Leperd promoting his book, "The Big Print," which explores the current monetary system's challenges and offers strategies for protecting wealth during potential economic instability. His core message emphasizes the need to return to a sound money standard and prepare for potential inflationary pressures. Throughout the discussion, Leperd maintains a cautious but optimistic tone, acknowledging economic uncertainties while believing that sound assets like gold and Bitcoin offer protection against potential systemic financial challenges.
In this podcast interview, global economic consultant Simon Hunt provides a comprehensive analysis of current geopolitical and economic tensions, focusing on potential conflicts and economic challenges facing the world. The discussion centers on the upcoming Putin-Trump summit, which Hunt believes will likely produce no substantial outcomes, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict expected to continue and be ultimately decided on the battlefield. Hunt suggests significant geopolitical risks exist, particularly in the Middle East, with potential escalations involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. He emphasizes that Washington's broader strategic objective is to prevent the BRICS nations from maturing into a genuine opposition to the current unilateral world order. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in September could be a pivotal moment in reshaping global dynamics. Economically, Hunt warns of potential recessionary pressures, with particular concerns about Europe's financial stability. He notes that China's economy is experiencing weakening demand, with manufacturing sectors showing signs of strain. The implementation of tariffs and trade uncertainties are creating significant business hesitation and potential long-term economic disruptions. Regarding inflation, Hunt predicts a potential inflationary surge by mid-2025, potentially reaching double-digit levels by 2027-2028. He highlights food prices as a critical indicator, with the FAO food price index showing concerning upward trends. The potential for war and continued monetary stimulus could exacerbate these inflationary pressures. In the commodities sector, particularly copper, Hunt anticipates a market correction with prices potentially falling to around $7,000 before potentially doubling by 2027-2028. He suggests that war could paradoxically become a driver of copper consumption. Ultimately, Hunt's analysis paints a picture of increasing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, advising listeners to remain flexible, maintain food reserves, and be prepared for potential significant economic disruptions in the coming years.
In this podcast episode, Patrick Karim discusses the potential for a significant capital rotation event in financial markets, focusing on the relationship between gold, stocks, and other assets. Karim emphasizes the importance of using logarithmic charts for accurate long-term financial analysis, explaining that linear charts can distort historical price movements and hide critical trends. The core of Karim's analysis centers on the potential shift of capital from stocks to commodities, particularly gold and silver. He highlights several key indicators suggesting this rotation may be imminent, including the stretched valuation of the stock market relative to currency circulation and the increasing distance from long-term moving averages. Karim points out that gold has been showing signs of breaking out against the S&P 500, which historically precedes periods of economic restructuring. He notes that when such capital rotation events occur, commodities like gold, silver, and uranium tend to outperform stocks for extended periods, potentially spanning 8-12 years. The analysis extends to silver, which Karim sees as particularly promising. He suggests silver could potentially achieve a significant yearly breakout, with potential targets ranging from $65 to $128 over time. For mining stocks, he recommends focusing on individual leaders rather than broad ETFs, as some miners are already stretched and approaching correction territories. The bond market also provides critical signals, with the relationship between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields indicating potential economic stress. The narrowing spread and downward trend of these yields suggest increasing recessionary pressures. Ultimately, Karim's perspective is not about predicting an immediate market collapse, but rather identifying a potential structural shift in asset performance. He advises investors to watch for confirmation signals, such as gold breaking out against the S&P 500 and stocks experiencing a meaningful correction, before making significant portfolio adjustments.
In this podcast interview, Mike McLean, a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a nuanced perspective on current economic trends, focusing on potential deflationary forces and market corrections. McLean argues that commodities are experiencing a significant downturn, with crude oil down 9% and grains down 16% for the year, primarily due to their previous inflationary peaks in 2022. McLean anticipates a potential market correction, particularly in the U.S. stock market, which he believes is overvalued and approaching a critical point of reversion. He highlights historical parallels with market peaks in 1929 and 1989, suggesting that the current market conditions share similar characteristics of excessive valuation and speculative sentiment. Gold and U.S. Treasury bonds are McLean's preferred assets for the remainder of the year. He notes that gold ETF holdings are up 10% this year, after four consecutive years of decline, and predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce. Central bank buying and a potential stock market pullback could further drive gold's performance. The interview also explores the potential impact of tariffs, particularly on industrial metals like copper, and the changing dynamics of global trade. McLean argues that the U.S. is reshaping international trade relationships, which could pressure corporate profits and contribute to market volatility. Regarding cryptocurrencies, McLean is cautious, viewing them as highly correlated with the stock market and potentially vulnerable to a correction. He suggests that the proliferation of stablecoins represents a more practical application of blockchain technology for financial transactions. McLean's overall thesis centers on the cyclical nature of markets, emphasizing that periods of inflation are typically followed by deflationary corrections. He warns investors to be wary of consensus thinking and to pay attention to historical patterns and market signals that suggest a potential downturn. The interview concludes with a reminder that market psychology and sentiment are crucial indicators of potential market movements, and that extreme optimism often precedes significant corrections.
Here is a 300-word summary of the podcast transcript: The podcast features an in-depth discussion with Melody Holt, an expert in housing and mortgage markets, exploring the complex dynamics of the current US housing landscape. Holt's background in macro economics and mortgage lending provides her with a unique perspective on the housing market's evolution and potential risks. Holt argues that the housing market has fundamentally transformed since the late 1980s, shifting from a focus on first-time homebuyers to an investment-driven ecosystem. The average household size has dramatically decreased to 2.5 people, reflecting significant demographic changes. She highlights how the market has become increasingly dominated by investors, short-term rentals, and speculation, rather than serving traditional family housing needs. A critical concern is the rise of non-bank lenders, which now comprise 85% of mortgage lending. These institutions lack the financial cushioning of traditional banks and are potentially vulnerable to economic shifts. Holt warns that the current housing market is facing multiple challenges, including overbuilding, misallocated inventory, and declining affordability for younger generations. Demographics present another significant challenge. The United States is not maintaining population replacement rates, with an aging population of baby boomers who own the majority of homes. Holt predicts a potential significant market correction, potentially as dramatic as the 2008 financial crisis, where home prices could realign more closely with median household incomes. The discussion emphasizes the complexity of the housing market, pointing out systematic issues like securitization, government intervention, and misleading data reporting. Holt advises consumers to be cautious about taking on debt and to conduct thorough personal research before making significant housing decisions. Ultimately, Holt suggests the housing market may be heading toward a period of correction, where prices could dramatically realign with economic fundamentals. She recommends skepticism toward mainstream narratives and encourages individuals to carefully evaluate their personal financial circumstances before committing to major housing investments.
In this podcast discussion, Gary Savage provides a comprehensive analysis of current market dynamics, focusing primarily on gold, silver, and potential economic cycles. He suggests that the stock market is potentially forming a "megaphone topping pattern" and may be approaching a cyclical bear market, with potential geopolitical tensions in Ukraine serving as a potential catalyst for market corrections. Regarding gold, Savage emphasizes a long-term bullish perspective, highlighting a 13-year cup and handle pattern that suggests significant upside potential. He believes gold could easily reach $10,000 and potentially even $15,000 during its final parabolic phase, which he anticipates occurring around 2027-2028. The extended base formation supports his optimistic outlook. For silver, Savage sees similar potential, predicting prices could reach $100, $200, and potentially $250. He recommends selling in stages during the final bubble phase, with the gold-to-silver ratio (potentially reaching 20-30 to 1) serving as a key indicator for market tops. The discussion also explores the dollar's role, with Savage believing the currency is in a secular bear market and currently experiencing a countertrend rally. He expects the dollar will make a lower high and then decline, which could support precious metals' performance. Savage warns that potential market movements could be significantly influenced by geopolitical events, particularly escalating tensions in Ukraine. He suggests the "war cycle" might last until 2027-2028 and could be a driving factor in gold's bull market. His investment strategy focuses on patience, avoiding over-trading, and strategically positioning for metals' anticipated bull run. He recommends using vehicles like leveraged ETFs and long-dated call options when identifying potential intermediate cycle lows. Ultimately, Savage remains cautiously optimistic, believing we are in the early stages of a significant metals bull market with substantial upside potential, contingent on geopolitical and economic developments.
In this podcast interview, Jaime Carrasco, a portfolio manager at Carrasco Wealth Management, provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic landscape, focusing primarily on silver and gold as critical investment assets during a potential monetary reset. Carrasco argues that silver is significantly undervalued, highlighting the historical gold-to-silver ratio and the massive structural deficit in silver production. He believes silver presents an extraordinary investment opportunity, especially given its current price is essentially unchanged from 40 years ago, while other commodities have dramatically increased in value. The discussion centers on the potential for a major monetary reset, similar to historical precedents like Roosevelt's 1933 dollar revaluation. Carrasco suggests that central banks and governments are preparing to revalue asset ledgers, potentially backing currencies with gold again. He points to signals like rising long-term interest rates and global central banks' increasing gold purchases as indicators of this impending shift. Carrasco is particularly critical of the current financial system, emphasizing the unsustainable debt levels and the continuous cycle of solving debt problems by creating more debt. He anticipates a period of stagflation leading potentially to hyperinflation, where people will rapidly exchange currency for hard assets. While acknowledging the potential of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, Carrasco maintains that gold and silver remain the most reliable forms of money. He recommends investors allocate approximately 30% of their portfolio to precious metals and mining companies, drawing from his experience with Latin American economic cycles. The interview underscores the importance of understanding historical economic patterns and preparing for potential systemic changes. Carrasco advises investors to focus on opportunities rather than crisis, emphasizing the potential for generational wealth creation through strategic investments in gold, silver, and mining sector equities. Ultimately, his message is clear: those who understand and position themselves ahead of these potential monetary transformations will be best prepared to preserve and grow their wealth.
In this podcast interview, Lobo Tigre, author of the Independent Speculator, discusses critical investment strategies and insights across various economic and commodity markets. He emphasizes the importance of due diligence, skepticism, and rational decision-making in investing, arguing that emotional discipline and thorough research are key to successful investment outcomes. Tigre explores several significant economic themes, including Trump's "Fortress America" agenda and its potential implications for commodity markets. He suggests that the current geopolitical strategy is focused on strengthening domestic manufacturing and critical mineral supply chains, which could have substantial investment opportunities in sectors like copper, uranium, and strategic metals. Regarding economic predictions, Tigre maintains a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the complexity of current economic conditions. He discusses the potential for recession while highlighting the role of fiscal dominance and massive government spending in potentially preventing or mitigating economic downturns. He argues that the interplay between inflationary and deflationary pressures could create a stagflationary environment beneficial to certain commodity sectors. When discussing investment strategies, Tigre strongly advocates for careful stock selection over broad market bets. He warns against simply following trends or relying solely on spreadsheet analysis, emphasizing that investors must conduct thorough research and understand the specific dynamics of individual companies and sectors. For investors new to sectors like uranium, he recommends starting with ETFs or carefully selected stocks after comprehensive due diligence. A key takeaway from the discussion is Tigre's belief that investors can outperform the market by dedicating time to understanding their investments, maintaining a skeptical attitude, and avoiding emotional decision-making. He suggests that even a modest amount of dedicated research—approximately one hour per week per owned stock—can significantly improve investment outcomes. Ultimately, Tigre's message is about patience, continuous learning, and maintaining a rational, disciplined approach to investing, particularly in complex and volatile commodity markets.
In this podcast interview, Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital discusses the emerging bullish cycle in the metals and mining sector, highlighting several key macro trends and investment opportunities. Costa believes we are in the early stages of a long-term commodity cycle, with gold leading the way and other metals poised to follow. The discussion centers on three primary pillars: energy sources, infrastructure, and raw materials. Costa argues that the increasing electricity demand, driven by artificial intelligence and onshoring trends, will create significant opportunities in metals and mining. He emphasizes the critical need for metals to support emerging technological and infrastructure developments, particularly in the United States. A pivotal moment Costa highlights is the U.S. Department of Defense's 15% stake in MP Materials, which he sees as a recognition of strategic material vulnerabilities. This investment signals a potential shift in how governments view critical resources and mining infrastructure. Costa also discusses the potential macroeconomic trajectory, suggesting two potential paths: a deflationary shock or an inflationary era followed by a highly efficient, deflationary period driven by AI. He believes we are currently in an inflationary buildup phase that will eventually transition to increased productivity and efficiency. Regarding currencies, Costa anticipates a long-term decline in the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, driven by significant fiscal and trade deficits. He sees this as part of a broader "domino effect" of macro trends, where acceptance of risk gradually moves through different asset classes and markets. The interview concludes with Costa identifying the exploration and development phase of the mining industry, alongside emerging markets, as potentially the most asymmetric investment opportunities of his career. He encourages investors to pay attention to the interconnected nature of these macro trends and the gradual rotation of capital across different sectors and geographies.
In this podcast interview, Vince Lansy discusses the complex geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on the shifting dynamics of global finance, currency, and resource competition. He argues that the United States is facing significant challenges in maintaining its economic dominance, with the dollar likely to weaken due to multiple interconnected factors. Lansy highlights the emerging "Cold War 2.0" between the US and BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, which are strategically repositioning themselves in global markets. He suggests that China is not necessarily seeking to become the global reserve currency, but rather wants to establish a regional economic influence, potentially using the yuan as a semi-gold-backed currency. A key theme is the transformation of supply chains and payment mechanisms. Lansy explains that eastern countries are increasingly controlling their resource production, pricing, and trading, gradually diminishing Western financial influence. This shift is evident in markets like gold and natural gas, where Russia and China are creating alternative pricing and trading standards. The discussion also explores potential solutions for the US economic challenges, such as the rise of stablecoins. Lansy describes stablecoins as a potential mechanism for the US to finance its debt, essentially creating a new way to sell treasuries and attract investment. He sees this as part of a broader strategy to maintain economic flexibility and attract capital. Regarding monetary policy, Lansy provides insights into Trump's approach to influencing the Federal Reserve, characterizing it as a strategic method of creating political pressure and potential blame scenarios. He believes the dollar will inevitably weaken as a result of mounting debt, changing global dynamics, and the need to make US exports more competitive. Ultimately, Lansy presents a nuanced view of the global economic landscape, emphasizing the ongoing transformation of financial systems, resource control, and international economic relationships. He suggests that these changes are part of a long-term, generational shift rather than immediate, dramatic transformations.
In this podcast interview, Martin Armstrong provides a critical geopolitical analysis of current global tensions, focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential escalation towards World War III. Armstrong argues that the 50-day deadline imposed by Trump is an unrealistic negotiation tactic that fundamentally misunderstands geopolitical dynamics. Armstrong suggests that Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and that NATO's interventionist strategies are deliberately provocative. He criticizes neoconservative influences, particularly figures like Lindsey Graham and John McCain, for consistently pushing for military confrontation without understanding the long-term consequences. He highlights how these interventions have historically failed, citing examples from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The discussion emphasizes the economic implications of ongoing tensions, with Armstrong predicting a steep recession lasting until 2028. He argues that sanctions against Russia have accelerated the formation of BRICS and are driving countries to seek alternative economic arrangements. The movement of gold and capital away from traditional Western financial centers is seen as a significant indicator of these shifts. Armstrong is particularly critical of European leadership, describing them as the "worst crop of world leaders" in history. He points out the economic challenges facing Germany and the broader European Union, including capital controls and increasing governmental restrictions on financial movements. Regarding potential conflict, Armstrong warns that Putin is unlikely to capitulate and that the current strategies risk escalating into a broader global confrontation. He suggests that the financial capital of the world will likely move to China after 2032, drawing parallels with the historical decline of Athens due to internal polarization and continuous warfare. The interview concludes with a stark warning about the potential for significant geopolitical and economic disruption, with Armstrong emphasizing that the current trajectory benefits no one and risks triggering a catastrophic global conflict.
In this podcast interview, Peter Grandich discusses several critical economic and geopolitical issues facing the United States. The conversation centers on potential tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with Grandich suggesting that Trump's attempts to influence monetary policy could have significant market repercussions. Grandich highlights several major concerns, including a looming debt crisis, with national debt potentially reaching $50 trillion and creating unsustainable interest payments. He also emphasizes a brewing retirement crisis, where most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and unable to save adequately for retirement. Additionally, he warns about an aging crisis, infrastructure challenges, and potential societal tensions related to demographic shifts. The discussion extensively explores the growing influence of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which Grandich sees as a significant geopolitical development. He believes these countries are strategically positioning themselves to challenge US economic dominance, particularly through alternative trading mechanisms and potential new currency arrangements. Regarding investment strategies, Grandich is bullish on precious metals, especially gold, copper, uranium, and silver. He recommends diversification in junior mining stocks while understanding the speculative nature of such investments. His investment philosophy emphasizes long-term thinking and monitoring global financial trends beyond US-centric perspectives. Grandich is particularly critical of the current administration's approach to international relations, suggesting that Trump's aggressive trade tactics and diplomatic strategies are accelerating the United States' global decline. He argues that the world is increasingly moving away from US-centric economic models, with countries like China playing increasingly pivotal roles in global economic development. The interview concludes with Grandich recommending that investors broaden their information sources, read international financial media, and prepare for potential significant market shifts by understanding emerging global economic trends.
In this podcast, Francis Hunt discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on the potential collapse of debt markets and the rise of alternative assets like gold, silver, and platinum. He argues that we are witnessing the end of a 40-year bond market cycle, with long-term debt instruments experiencing significant yield increases across multiple countries, including the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Hunt emphasizes that the traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds are losing their appeal due to capital devaluation and low yields. He suggests that investors are increasingly turning to precious metals as a preservation of capital strategy. Technical analysis of gold, platinum, and silver charts indicates potential breakouts and continued upward momentum, with gold potentially reaching targets around $3,700. A key discussion point is the unraveling of the Japanese carry trade, where low-cost Japanese funding has been used to invest in higher-yielding assets globally. As Japanese long-term yields rise, this trade becomes less attractive, potentially causing significant financial disruption. Hunt believes this could trigger a broader financial restructuring. The conversation also explores the potential vulnerability of the United States as a global economic hegemon. Hunt argues that the U.S. is not immune to economic challenges and may experience a more dramatic economic downturn due to its higher starting point. He warns about the potential collapse of pension systems, driven by complex financial instruments like Leveraged Debt Instruments (LDIs) that have created unsustainable financial structures. Ultimately, Hunt predicts a shift towards alternative assets and potentially a universal basic income (UBI) system as traditional financial mechanisms break down. He advises investors to focus on physical precious metals and be cautious of complex financial products and large asset management firms. The podcast presents a sobering view of the current global economic landscape, suggesting significant structural changes are on the horizon.
In this podcast interview, David Hunter, a contrarian macro strategist with 52 years of experience, provides a comprehensive outlook on the current market and economic landscape. Hunter believes the market is in the final leg of a 43-year secular bull market, potentially reaching a parabolic top in the next three to four months. He predicts the S&P could reach 8,700, the Nasdaq 30,000, and the Dow 60,000 before experiencing a significant correction. Hunter anticipates a "global bust" that will be more severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis, driven by excessive leverage and debt across global financial systems. He expects central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to eventually respond with massive monetary stimulus—potentially up to $20 trillion—to prevent a complete systemic collapse. The strategist forecasts a unique economic cycle where initial monetary intervention will lead to a deflationary bust, followed by a recovery period characterized by significant inflation. He predicts commodities will be the primary beneficiaries of this cycle, with gold potentially reaching $20,000 and silver $500 by the early next decade. Hunter is optimistic about Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding deregulation, energy production, and reshoring manufacturing, though he believes these efforts may be overwhelmed by the impending economic downturn. He expects the bust to last 12-18 months, after which significant monetary and fiscal stimulus could trigger a recovery. Regarding market sentiment, Hunter notes that institutional investors remain cautious, which he sees as fuel for further market advancement. He anticipates a narrative of a "soft landing" and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will drive market confidence. The interview concludes with Hunter's belief that while the immediate future looks challenging, the massive monetary stimulus will ultimately trigger a recovery, albeit with significant inflationary pressures and reduced living standards for consumers.
In this podcast interview, Trader Ferd discusses his investment strategy focusing on undervalued and overlooked sectors, with particular emphasis on commodities like platinum, gold, and uranium. He highlights the importance of positioning early in sectors with tight supply-demand dynamics and understanding long-term fundamental trends. Regarding platinum, Ferd sees significant potential driven by multiple demand factors, including catalytic converters, industrial applications, jewelry, and investment demand. He notes the metal's supply deficit and believes the current price movement is just the beginning of a potentially multi-year trend. The primary supply is down 6% year-on-year, with recycling also declining, creating a compelling investment narrative. Ferd discusses his investment philosophy of balancing risk minimization and regret minimization, typically starting positions at 3% and potentially scaling up to 5% for high-conviction investments. He emphasizes the importance of portfolio management and being willing to tolerate some volatility to capture significant upside. The conversation explores broader macroeconomic trends, particularly focusing on Asian energy demand. Ferd argues that developing countries, especially in Asia, are at the early stages of increasing energy consumption, which could drive significant demand for commodities like coal and oil. He highlights that 6.5 billion people are seeking to improve their standard of living, which will require substantial energy infrastructure and consumption. On the gold market, Ferd believes central banks and institutional investors are still underallocated, and he sees potential for continued appreciation, especially as Asian countries seek alternatives to US dollar-denominated trade. He suggests that while gold might continue to outperform other commodities, individual commodity sectors will experience periodic strong performance. Ultimately, Ferd's approach centers on patience, fundamental analysis, and identifying sectors with compelling long-term growth potential, particularly in the commodities space. He advises investors to think in multi-year timeframes and focus on sectors with tight supply dynamics and emerging demand trends.
In this podcast interview, Chase Taylor, a global macro strategist, discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on several key themes. He argues that the economy's resilience stems from high deficit spending and asset prices, making a recession less probable than in previous decades. Taylor suggests that higher interest rates can be stimulative for the private sector, as they provide significant income for investors and institutions. He notes that while high rates can hurt small businesses, the broader economy remains relatively stable, especially with tech sectors demonstrating low cyclicality. Regarding fiscal policy, Taylor warns about potential "fiscal dominance" - a scenario where monetary policy becomes subservient to government funding needs. He believes this might occur if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates inappropriately, even with persistent inflation. The discussion explores potential economic risks, with housing being a critical sector to watch. Taylor sees similarities to the 2008 housing market in terms of home prices versus incomes, but emphasizes that current credit quality and household balance sheets are much stronger. On trade policy, Taylor is skeptical about reshoring efforts, arguing that blanket tariffs could create more economic complications than benefits. He highlights the complexity of global supply chains and the potential inflationary impacts of aggressive tariff strategies. The labor market remains a key indicator, with Taylor observing a cooling but not collapsing job market. He sees potential job market stress in sectors like home building and healthcare, particularly following recent legislative changes. Regarding currencies and commodities, Taylor anticipates a potential short-term dollar rally driven by inflation concerns and rate differentials. He remains bullish on gold, primarily due to consistent central bank purchases, though he expects a period of consolidation. Overall, Taylor presents a nuanced view of the economy, emphasizing the interconnectedness of fiscal policy, asset prices, and global economic dynamics, while cautioning against oversimplified interpretations of economic indicators.
Tom welcomes a new guest Eric Yueng to explore the current state of the gold market, focusing on the LBMA’s physical delivery delays, the surge in physical gold demand at the COMEX, and the implications for investors.
Yueng explains that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has seen significant delays in physical gold deliveries, increasing from T+2 or T+4 to T+30 or even T+60. This has led to a surge in physical gold delivery requests at the COMEX, with volumes reaching 15 times normal levels in December and January, and continuing to rise in February. He attributes this surge to investors seeking physical metal rather than cash-settled contracts, driven by concerns over the LBMA’s ability to deliver.
Yueng discusses the role of exchange-for-physical (EFP) trading pairs, where arbitrageurs typically profit from price differences between COMEX and LBMA markets. However, the current demand for physical delivery has disrupted this mechanism, potentially leading to a “short squeeze” as those unable to secure physical gold are forced to cover their positions at higher prices.
He suggests that large institutions, possibly acting on behalf of the U.S. government, are driving much of the physical gold demand. This aligns with reports of significant imports into the U.S., which he believes could be part of efforts to repatriate gold ahead of potential audits or revaluation.
Yeung also touches on the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like GLD, noting that borrowing rates have surged as institutions withdraw physical gold. This, combined with the LBMA’s reported attempts to borrow gold from foreign central banks, highlights growing concerns about the availability and allocation of physical gold.
Looking at China, Yeung notes that the country is preparing for higher gold prices through initiatives like the Gold Accumulation Program, which encourages retail investment in physical gold, and allowing insurance companies to invest in it. These moves are expected to significantly increase institutional demand for gold in China.
Yueng contrasts this with the West, where sentiment toward gold remains lukewarm despite high prices, partly due to competition from cryptocurrencies. He predicts that if gold prices continue to rise, particularly beyond $3,500 per ounce, there could be a significant shift in investor behavior and increased demand for mining stocks.
Finally, Eric addresses silver, suggesting that its price suppression may end as the U.S. seeks to support domestic mining interests amid manufacturing reshoring efforts. He highlights the growing deficit in silver supply and questions the LBMA’s reported inventories.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – EFP Premiums & LBMA
3:44 – Demand & Deliveries
9:19 – Who’s Long/Short
10:38 – U.S. Taking Delivery?
17:53 – Remonetizing Assets?
19:40 – ETFs & GLD Demand
23:52 – LBMA & Availability
26:48 – Change in U.S. Policy
28:25 – China’s Gold Strategy
33:14 – Sentiment West/East
36:43 – Expectations for Gold
40:07 – Demand & The Miners
42:05 – Margins & Sentiment
45:37 – China & Silver Suppression
51:13 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:X.com: https://x.com/KingKong9888
Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, known as “The Market Sniper,” to discuss the importance of understanding various time frames in market analysis, particularly for gold and silver. He emphasizes that being bullish or bearish can vary across short-term, medium-term, and long-term perspectives. Hunt highlights the technical patterns he uses to predict market movements, such as head-and-shoulder setups and falling wedges, which help identify key entry and exit points.
Hunt is long-term bullish on gold due to its role as a hedge against debt-based economic collapse. He warns that while gold may experience short-term corrections, it remains a strategic investment for preserving wealth. He advises investors to avoid putting lump sums into the market at current highs and instead use dollar-cost averaging or wait for pullbacks.
Francis touches on silver, noting that it has broken out of a significant resistance level but could face volatility. Hunt suggests maintaining a diversified portfolio with a focus on gold as the primary investment, while considering silver when specific technical indicators align. Additionally, he mentions platinum as a potential high-performing asset due to its scarcity and current technical setup.
Hunt cautions against the risks of totalitarianism and loss of privacy in the coming economic crisis. He advises listeners to prepare for both financial and societal challenges by reducing debt, preserving capital, and staying informed about global trends. He emphasizes the importance of adapting strategies based on changing market conditions and highlights the need for a holistic approach to wealth preservation.
The interview concludes with Hunt encouraging listeners to stay vigilant and proactive in their financial planning, emphasizing that while times ahead may be challenging, careful preparation can help navigate the storm.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Confusion & Timeframes
15:12 – Accelerating Cycles/Debt
21:00 – Yields & U.S. Tariffs
25:40 – Debt & Dollar Balance
28:37 – Gold & Oil Dynamics
36:33 – Fed & Economic Data
40:19 – Rates & Market Forces
44:19 – Chart of Silver
50:20 – Platinum Outlook
54:30 – Preps & Wrap Up
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniper
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
Tom welcomes back Peter Schiff, the CEO and Chief Economist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, Chairman of Schiff Gold, and host of Schiff Radio to the show.
Peter discusses inflation, central banking policies, and the implications of stagflation on the economy. He emphasizes that inflation is fundamentally caused by an expansion in the money supply and credit, rather than rising prices alone. Schiff argues that the Federal Reserve’s actions, including quantitative easing and low interest rates, have fueled inflation and exacerbated economic instability.
Schiff critiques the government’s handling of inflation, noting that it often deflects blame onto businesses or labor unions instead of addressing the root causes. He warns that continued deficit spending and debt accumulation will lead to higher inflation and potentially a financial crisis. Schiff also highlights the role of tariffs and trade policies in affecting prices and trade deficits, though he doubts their effectiveness in fundamentally altering the economic landscape.
The discussion turns to gold and precious metals as a hedge against inflation. Schiff notes that despite record earnings from gold mining companies, investor sentiment remains cautious, with many preferring speculative assets like cryptocurrencies or AI stocks. He believes this presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on undervalued gold mining stocks before prices rise significantly.
Schiff also touches on the potential impact of rising interest rates in Japan and the yen carry trade, warning that unwinding these positions could disrupt global markets. Additionally, he discusses the role of central banks in buying gold as a form of portfolio insurance and predicts continued demand for precious metals as investors seek safe havens amid economic uncertainty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Causes of Inflation
9:40 – Fed Inflation Targets
15:09 – Fed & Data Dependence
17:37 – Lower Dollar Problem
22:10 – Deepseek AI & China
24:33 – Overvaluations
27:36 – Tariff Threats & Trade
31:18 – Japanese Bond Yields
34:40 – LBMA & Lease Rates
38:33 – Country of Origin
41:47 – Gold Chinese Insurers
48:38 – Miners and Earnings
58:12 – Thoughts on Silver
1:00:59 – Wrap Up
Tallking Points From This Episode
- Inflation is caused by money supply expansion, not just rising prices, and central banks are the primary culprits.
- Gold and precious metals offer protection against inflation, with mining stocks currently undervalued despite strong fundamentals.
- Economic instability and stagflation risks loom large, driven by debt, deficits, and ineffective monetary policies.
Guest Links:
Podcast: https://schiffradio.com/
Website: https://schiffgold.com/
Website: https://schiffsovereign.com/
Website: https://europac.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ
Peter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy – How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals.
Tom welcomes back Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing.
Robert emphasizes the attractiveness of gold mining equities due to their underappreciated nature and the potential for significant returns. He highlights that the sector is less competitive compared to mainstream stocks like Apple or Microsoft, offering investors an edge through lower competition and fewer institutional players.
Sinn structures his portfolio by considering market capitalization and volatility, allocating smaller percentages to high-risk junior miners (e.g., 2-3%) and larger allocations to more stable major miners (e.g., 10%). He prioritizes risk management, focusing on potential losses before profit opportunities. He also advises against holding overly concentrated positions in volatile stocks, suggesting that investors should cap their exposure based on market feedback.
He touches on the macroeconomic backdrop, particularly the secular bull market for gold driven by central banks’ increased demand, especially from China and India. Sinn notes that gold’s role as a safe-haven asset is becoming more pronounced amid global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. He also discusses the potential impact of tariffs and trade policies under the current administration on gold prices, suggesting that these factors could further drive demand.
Sinn critiques the use of ETFs like GDX to gauge the entire mining sector, arguing that such funds are skewed towards larger companies and may not reflect broader trends. Instead, he advocates for a more nuanced approach, examining individual company performance and pipeline projects.
He also touches on the importance of China’s gold accumulation, which has significantly influenced global markets, and the potential for a physical short squeeze in gold. While acknowledging the complexity of predicting such events, Sinn believes that gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and economic instability will continue to drive its value.
Finally, Sinn underscores the need for investors to understand both macroeconomic trends and micro-level company fundamentals, emphasizing the importance of staying informed and adaptable in a rapidly changing market landscape.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:46 – A Mining Equity Focus
3:25 – Volatility & Risk
5:46 – Doubling Down?
8:35 – Wild Market Signals
11:55 – Mine Lifecycles
15:26 – Sentiment & Interest
18:56 – Market Contrasts
21:00 – New Investor Advice
23:02 – Mergers & Mine Cycles
25:06 – Problems With The GDX
26:46 – Deposits & Economics
28:14 – Royalties & Streams
28:48 – Macro Outlook & Gold
34:24 – Asian Gold Demand
35:37 – LBMA & Deliveries?
39:00 – Silver Demand?
41:18 – His Primary Focus?
44:37 – The 4th Turning
46:19 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Robert highlights gold mining equities’ potential for significant returns due to underappreciation and fewer institutional players.
- Sinn advocates for a balanced miner portfolio, allocating smaller percentages to high-risk junior miners and larger percentages to stable major miners. He emphasizes risk management.
- Sinn discusses the gold bull market driven by central bank demand, safe-haven status in uncertain times, and potential impact of tariffs on prices.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnician
Substack: https://robertsinn.substack.com
CEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession.
Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles.
Tom welcomes back David Murrin for a comprehensive analysis of global geopolitical dynamics, economic trends, and historical cycles. He begins by discussing the terminal decline of American power, comparing it to Britain’s post-empire struggles in the 1970s. Murrin argues that President Trump’s policies, while intended to revitalize the nation, face significant headwinds due to high inflation, debt dynamics, and geopolitical challenges. He warns against the erosion of democratic institutions under Trump’s administration, highlighting concerns about executive overreach and constitutional challenges.
Murrin contrasts the U.S.’s declining influence with China’s rise, noting that while both nations confront internal issues—such as demographic challenges for China and systemic decay for the U.S. China’s military advancements and strategic initiatives position it to challenge American hegemony. He expresses concern about potential conflicts in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, which could escalate tensions and disrupt global oil markets.
In discussing monetary systems, Murrin emphasizes the role of gold as a safe haven during times of instability, predicting significant price increases for precious metals. He critiques cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, arguing that they have reached speculative peaks and are likely to decline due to the shifting economic landscape.
Murrin also addresses the Middle East conflict, advocating for peaceful resolutions through carrots rather than sticks. He suggests that offering incentives for displaced populations could foster stability, contrasting this with punitive measures. He laments the failure of international efforts in Ukraine, urging a more strategic approach akin to historical lend-lease programs.
Throughout the interview, Murrin underscores the inevitability of cyclical conflicts and the challenges of breaking these patterns. However, he holds out hope for external interventions or technological breakthroughs that could alter this trajectory. He encourages listeners to engage with his work critically, fostering dialogue and understanding in an era marked by uncertainty and rapid change.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:58 – Empire Cycle Status
6:43 – Monetary Status
9:32 – DOGE & Cutting
11:46 – Freedom Threats?
13:36 – Carrot Stick Approach
16:27 – Dollar System Failing?
17:40 – U.S. Status & China
22:13 – China Demographics
24:50 – Gold & Global Reset?
27:58 – Gold Cycle Timing
30:53 – Bitcoin Thoughts
33:12 – Economic Realities
36:33 – Iran & Middle East
42:32 – Palestine Solution?
45:45 – Cycle Inevitability?
49:37 – Challenging Thoughts
52:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- America’s terminal decline mirrors Britain’s post-empire struggles, facing high inflation and debt.
- China’s military expansion poses a direct challenge to U.S. hegemony and global stability.
- Gold will rise as the liquidity cycle ends, while Bitcoin faces a speculative bubble collapse.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
Instagram: https://instagram.com/murrinraw
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
Tom welcomes back Gary Savage, founder of Smart Money Tracker Premium, to discuss the current state and future outlook of gold and silver markets. Savage shares his insights on market cycles, volatility, and how investors can navigate this evolving landscape.
Savage begins by highlighting the significance of an eight-year cycle in precious metals, which he believes is nearing its peak. The cycle, which started in October 2022, is expected to reach a parabolic top within two to four years, potentially pushing gold prices as high as $7,000 or even $10,000. While this phase will be volatile, Savage emphasizes that it’s crucial for investors to stay focused on the long-term trend rather than getting distracted by short-term corrections.
Silver, according to Savage, is currently suppressed around $33 per ounce due to heavy shorting and manipulation by bullion banks. However, he predicts that once silver breaks through this resistance level, a strong short squeeze could push prices significantly higher, possibly reaching $40 or beyond. Savage urges investors to position themselves before this breakout occurs, as chasing gains after the fact could be costly.
Savage also discusses intermediate cycle timing, suggesting that the current rally in gold and silver may top out between late March and mid-April. While corrections are inevitable, he stresses that bull markets are defined by higher highs, so missing a few weeks of gains won’t derail long-term success. He advises investors to avoid panic during downturns and instead use these moments as opportunities to accumulate more assets.
Throughout the interview, Savage emphasizes the importance of managing recency bias and staying disciplined in the face of market volatility. He reminds listeners that while the ride may be bumpy, the rewards for those who stay invested are substantial. As the bull market progresses, Savage believes silver will outperform gold and mining stocks, making it a strategic choice for investors seeking outsized gains.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – The Bigger Picture
3:00 – Eight Year Cycle
6:00 – Gold & Market Volatility
9:20 – Momentum & Gold Outlook
13:00 – Silver Possibilities
15:30 – Timing Assessment
19:00 – Gold/Silver Ratio Uses
23:40 – Monitoring the Miners
26:40 – Human Nature & BIAS
30:00 – Fundamentals & Sentiment
34:45 – Tops, Debt, & Fed Policy
39:30 – Silver Opportunity
43:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gary explains how an eight-year cycle, starting in October 2022, is driving this gold bull market.
- With silver currently suppressed at $33, Savage predicts a massive breakout that could push prices up to $40 or beyond.
- Corrections are part of bull markets. Savage advises staying disciplined and avoid panic during downturns.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/garysavage1
Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos
Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary’s renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.
Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary’s in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
Tom welcomes back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the current state of gold, silver, and the broader economic developments.
During their conversation, gold reached an all-time high, with spot prices near $2863 and futures above $2900. Silver is trading around $32.26, while the HUI (Hard Rock Miners’ Index) stood at 328.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported delivery delays of four to eight weeks, indicating potential shortages. Lease rates have spiked to five percent, a significant increase from the usual one percent or less. Don suggested this could be due to LBMA supply issues.
Don emphasized silver’s role as a proxy for gold, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty. He warned of potential shortages in silver, driven by competing demands from investors and industrial fabricators. This could lead to dramatic price increases if a fear trade begins.
Despite strong stock market performance, Don expressed concerns about an impending “rug pull,” where the market could crash due to economic factors like inflation, high interest rates, and tariff policies. He highlighted issues such as consumer discretionary spending constraints, commercial real estate overhangs, and rising bankruptcies in small businesses.
The Fed’s inability to cut rates due to inflation concerns was discussed, along with potential implications for the economy. Don speculated that the Fed might resort to quantitative easing (QE) in response to a market crash, though he questioned their ability to manage regional bank crises.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:11 – Gold at New Highs
2:58 – LBMA Delivery Issues
10:00 – Thoughts on Silver
16:42 – Institutional Buyers
19:16 – Equity Mkt. Concerns
23:20 – Tariffs China/Europe?
27:17 – Fed & Inflation
33:09 – Tariffs on Bonds?
35:52 – Equity Valuations
37:10 – Banks & Retail
40:02 – Employment & Hires
42:05 – Coming Rug Pull
44:50 – A.I. & Tech
48:00 – Fed’s Reactions
51:48 – Cheap Miners?
53:46 – Traders Market
55:24 – Miner Pyramid
59:05 – Royalty Companies?
1:05:36 – Physical First
1:07:34 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, for a thought-provoking episode. The conversation begins around the far-reaching implications of tariffs on markets, industries, and economies. Tariffs are not one-size-fits-all, with their impact hinging on both the specific country and metal involved. Jeff expresses his disdain for tariffs, citing their detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating the devastating consequences on imports, exports, and both the US economy and the global marketplace during the Great Depression. The threat of retaliation could trigger a US recession, while gold and silver might experience heightened demand due to market uncertainty. Tariffs involve importers bearing added costs, instigating inflation, complicating international trade, and affecting base metals.
Two potential solutions for government funding – Value Added Tax (VAT) and gold-backed bonds – are examined, yet concerns over regressiveness, economic downturns, and practicality linger. Central banks have turned to gold as a means of securing dollar reserves amid past economic instability under the gold standard. Recent geopolitical developments have prompted some Eastern European countries to stockpile gold for safety against external pressures like Russia. The surge in demand for physical gold within the US is accompanied by a transition from London to New York, giving rise to borrowing and EFP premiums as markets grapple with economic and political uncertainties.
Jeff discusses the problems inherent in all financial system and why those problems would also exist under a gold standard. He argues that the Fed has played an important role in reducing the severity of economic contractions. However, he cautions that the only financial system in history that has not failed is this the current one.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Tariff Discussion
12:10 – Impacts on Metals?
14:38 – Various Scenarios
19:58 – Inflationary/Recessionary
26:03 – Fast Track U.S. Industry?
28:13 – Effects on Currencies?
31:13 – Recession Outlook?
36:00 – Appalling Statistics
38:00 – Income Tax & Trump
42:07 – A Gold Backed Bond?
45:49 – Fed & Depressions
52:13 – C.B. Gold Reserves
56:39 – CPM Client Concerns?
59:55 – EFP Premiums & Supply
1:07:48 – Reality & Forecast
1:10:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Tariffs’ detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation are discussed, with Smoot-Hawley Act as a historical reference.
- Central banks turn to gold as a hedge against economic instability; some countries stockpile for geopolitical safety.
- US recession potential and increased demand for gold and silver due to tariff uncertainty.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.com
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. They discuss the global economic landscape and the significance of gold in today’s context. Carrasco expresses his belief that Trump’s election and proposed policies could lead to a reset of debt and potential devaluation of US dollars held in treasuries around the world. He emphasizes the importance of understanding history, as previous periods saw significant increases in dividends from gold mining companies during times of monetary instability.
Carrasco encourages investors to consider gold as a hedge against inflation, purchasing power loss, and political instability. He also recommends silver mining companies due to their current undervaluation compared to gold. Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a safe haven asset, and Trump’s actions are aimed at rebuilding America for Americans, possibly necessitating a full reset. The location of US gold reserves and geopolitical issues like China’s policy in Latin America, Europe’s response to immigration, and the US-China-Russia alignment are significant sociological factors affecting the global economy. Despite the current uncertainty, Carrasco advocates for a decentralized world where nations can thrive and encourages investors to consider gold, silver, and Bitcoin as financial lifeboats.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Current World State
3:30 – S&P Bond Chart
10:12 – Gold Bonds & Treasury
15:45 – Free Cash Flow Chart
19:23 – Hyper Financial World
26:00 – Gold & Silver
31:02 – Silver Volatility
34:02 – Shelton & Blockchain
36:20 – Resource Sec. Valuations
38:13 – 40-Year Shift?
42:22 – A Financial Reset?
44:52 – Bonds in a Reset
46:22 – PMs & Tariff Risks
49:18 – A Double Edged Sword
51:53 – Trump Implementation
53:30 – European Problems
56:00 – Negotiating Peace?
1:02:09 – Surviving Inflation
1:04:10 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
Website: https://harbourfrontwealth.com
Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.
“Like one’s financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails.”
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim for a discussion on the probably capital rotation event coming soon to commodities generally and the stock market. They explore evidence suggesting gold’s outperformance over key indicators like US money supply, the dollar index, and major indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell.
Kevin and Patrick highlight that significant shifts occur when sectors underperform gold for extended periods (10-15 years), often leading to substantial drops before recovery. They caution Bitcoin holders about potential underperformance during this rotation, a sector historically correlated with tech stocks.
The conversation delves into the historical performance of SPX and NASDAQ versus gold, noting tech stocks and Bitcoin’s significant drawdowns but eventual recoveries. Yet, these assets often lag behind gold for prolonged periods, resulting in real losses for investors holding them.
The charting duo emphasize the importance of comparing any investment assets to the benchmark of gold, to gauge market shifts. They advocate investing in gold during market confusion and stress understanding that gold is currently in a bull era.
Additionally, they discuss the importance of risk management, patience, waiting for clear trends before entering markets, and avoiding concentration in single investments or chasing bottoms and tops of markets.
Ultimately, Kevin and Patrick stress patience, a long-term perspective, and applying ‘the gold test’ before any investment decision.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:20 – Capital Rotation Event
2:07 – Capital Rotation Charts
12:57 – Equities Vs. Gold
14:18 – Bitcoin Correlations
22:00 – Killing Narratives
24:40 – Ratio Analysis & Trends
28:34 – Gold Vs. Everything
32:24 – DXY Vs. CPI Chart
38:48 – A Technical Approach
44:18 – Public Debt Analysis
48:23 – Miners & Speculation
52:04 – Most Commodities?
54:08 – Risks – Tops/Bottoms
57:57 – Technicals & Analysis
1:04:53 – Entry Points & M.A.
1:10:09 – Uranium Miners
1:12:06 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/NorthStarCharts
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth is a seasoned chart trader with over 15 years of experience and a strong following on social media. With a background in meteorology spanning over 30 years, he has worked in various professional roles, including military and civilian weather forecasting. Currently serving as a Civil Contingency Advisor, Kevin provides advanced warning and guidance for life-threatening weather events and collaborates with emergency response teams.
His interest in the financial world was sparked by a colleague in the early 2000s, and he became particularly fascinated after the 2008 financial crash. Drawing parallels between weather forecasting and predicting market movements, Kevin emphasizes the importance of gathering evidence from various sources, much like assessing multiple weather models. His approach focuses on presenting clear, unbiased charts based on the weight of evidence, rather than personal bias.
Kevin’s expertise lies in distilling complex information into actionable insights, whether it’s forecasting weather patterns or market trends.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
In this Palisades interview, host Tom welcomes Trader Ferg, a full-time trader and author of the Trader Ferg Substack, discussing major narrative pivots in the energy market, focusing on topics like electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrids, net-zero projections, China's policy changes on renewable energy subsidies, battery technology shifts from lithium-ion to sodium-ion batteries, platinum group metals, geopolitical impacts like coal's comeback in Germany, and investment implications.Ferg also delves into the transformative potential of deep learning AI models, expressing excitement about their game-changing impact on technology and markets. Among these innovations, Ferg points to DeepSeek, an open-source AI model that is disrupting the tech industry and challenging major companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, potentially leading to significant declines in their valuations.Ferg also discusses platinum's unique market dynamics, noting its unpredictable demand and jurisdictional risks, particularly in key producing regions like South Africa. He emphasizes that new platinum supply is expected to remain limited after 2030. Declining production rates are also affecting industries such as oil and uranium. Despite these challenges, Ferg advises investors to maintain patience and position themselves strategically for future demand.Ferg identifies under-invested sectors, particularly the U.S. oil and gas industry, as opportunities for growth. He argues that while drilling activity will likely increase during Trump's second term, supply numbers have been overestimated, and demand remains steady but not overly strong. Additionally, Trump's plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could create further demand. Ferg expresses his bullish outlook on oil plays in the market, despite current low prices.In conclusion, Ferg's investment strategy focuses on identifying major narrative shifts, understanding supply decline rates, and positioning investments to capitalize on demand when markets price it appropriately.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Narratives & Pivots5:30 - Coal & Green Transitions?10:48 - Tariffs & Chinese EVs14:46 - China's A.I. Model21:04 - Sector Valuations?25:39 - Platinum Supply31:48 - Drill Baby Drill!37:03 - Trump & Inflation Risks42:00 - Gold, Rates, & Treasuries46:00 - Gold ETF Holdings48:43 - Resource Investment Risk54:00 - Derisking & Hated Sectors56:56 - Resource Costs & Inflation59:00 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/X: https://x.com/trader_fergTrader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on polticis and recent global buying patterns particulary in China. Specifically the significant 'Chinese whale', Zhang Kai Futures. Despite public purchases, China's government has also bought gold clandestinely through other less obvious channels. Goldman Sachs updated projections reveal ongoing gold buying by China, causing market rallies and awareness.Vince explores Exchange for Physicals (EFPs) and premium spreads in bullion banks, discussing tariff anxiety's potential impact on global physical metal flows. The EFP mechanism links London's physical market to New York's financial center, but tariffs may influence production countries and traders' choices.Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs soon. Vince touches on tariffs' primary impact on silver in the U.S., as a significant importer compared to its gold production.Furthermore, they discuss America's potential need to become a manufacturing economy again and Trump's plans involving factories, jobs, and exports. The challenge lies in financing this project with China no longer buying U.S. debt. Trump proposes reducing the deficit through energy cost reductions and weakening the dollar through tariffs, but that approach could lead to inflation and deficit issues.Vince and Tom discuss potential changes in government funding, specifically regarding income taxes versus tariffs. Trump intends to negotiate with other countries using tariffs as leverage for domestic job creation and foreign investment. Vince emphasizes the importance of addressing economic conflicts to prevent escalation into full-blown conflicts.Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - China's Gold Whale12:38 - EFP Premiums & Spread25:00 - Supply & Net Imports28:24 - Silver Prices??34:48 - Manufacturing USA43:38 - Driving Dollar Lower47:00 - Tariffs & Income Tax54:54 - Historic Analogies58:03 - Economic World War1:00:47 - Tensions & Risks1:02:40 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeChina's government buys gold publicly and clandestinely through various back channels, including commercial banks and SAFE.Tariffs could significantly impact physical metal flows by influencing where silver is sourced and it's country of origin.Trump plans to revive American manufacturing through tariffs and changes in income tax.Guest Links:Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SorenthekLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullionVince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company's inception.Mr. Lanci's thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements.
Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss his insights into the silver market and its relationship with gold prices. He suggests that despite a seemingly undersupplied market, the price disparity between gold and silver does not reflect this reality. Macleod anticipates a significant shift in investor behavior once patience runs thin among those who have already bought into gold but yet to enter the silver market. The role of foreign investors, particularly central banks, in driving gold prices is highlighted. Macleod also emphasizes the importance of understanding the impact of the ongoing credit bubble on financial markets and encourages listeners to consider reducing their exposure to credit.Alasdair expresses his views on Donald Trump's impact on gold prices, citing increased foreign demand due to Trump's status as an inflationist and his executive orders. However, concerns over tariffs and potential economic repercussions remain. Macleod also touches upon historical examples of tariffs and interest rates and their relationship with an economy's purchasing power. He emphasizes the importance of understanding this connection for investors during the upcoming credit bubble.Throughout the conversation, Alasdair highlights the importance of considering global economic trends and various factors influencing gold and silver prices. He also discusses the role of speculators versus central banks in driving these markets and the potential for a significant shift once investor sentiment changes.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Trump & Macro Picture10:30 - Trump Inflationist15:26 - Strong Dollar Impact19:24 - Debt, Yields, & Economy26:18 - Global Bubbles & Dollar33:04 - Gold Industry & ETFs36:47 - Speculators & Price39:52 - Tariffs & C.B. Buying?41:49 - Silvers Underperformance49:05 - Tariffs & Consequences50:16 - Silver Supply Outcomes?56:06 - Biggest Bubble & Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeAlasdair Macleod predicts a shift in investor behavior towards silver due to gold price disparity.Foreign investors, particularly central banks, influence gold prices significantly.Macleod emphasizes understanding the impact of credit bubble and reducing exposure to it.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceSubstack: https://substack.com/@macleodfinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
In this episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman during Trump's second term inauguration when markets are closed. Bob discusses significant developments concerning Exchange for Physical Premiums (EFPs) in precious metals markets. The increasing EFP premiums stem from tariff concerns since Trump's campaign days, causing New York futures selling and London physical buying, creating a spread between the spot price and futures price. Trump's rhetoric on fair trade and potential tariffs could impact the 'product of origin', potentially affecting short positions expecting delivery to exchanges and could lead to major losses.Bob also touches upon the lack of retail interest in gold and silver markets despite their proximity to all-time highs due to changing consumer demographics, unregulated industry practices, and misleading sales tactics. He further discusses potential implications of tariffs on precious metals markets and the shift towards physical metal becoming a more price-dominant theme.Additionally, they explore the impact of investor behavior and supply constraints on platinum and potential implications of the U.S. administration's involvement in cryptocurrencies. The conversation also highlights increasing demand for precious metals during the Democratic administrations due to concerns over spending and taxes, potential effects of tariffs on the financial system and gold market, volatility in the economy, and central banks' actions as significant themes for 2025, and the possibility of creating stablecoins backed by precious metals.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Trump, Trade & EFP5:22 - Tariffs & Origins10:28 - 50+ Year EFP Chart17:30 - EFP Premiums & Covid20:14 - Retail Precious Metals25:45 - Gold & Silver EFP?29:15 - Platinum Markets33:18 - Metals Vs. Meme Coins37:10 - Crypto Credibility39:37 - Monetary Restraint44:55 - 2024 Physical Demand47:13 - U.S. Tariffs & C.B. Gold50:07 - Uncertainties & Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeTariffs could drive up EFP premiums in the precious metals market, leading to significant losses and tightened liquidity.Changing consumer demographics, industry practices, and sales tactics decreased retail interest in gold and silver markets despite high prices.Potential tariffs, investor behavior, supply constraints, and U.S. involvement in cryptocurrencies could influence metals markets and trends for 2025.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/blog/deciphering-the-complex-world-of-precious-metal-derivatives-ucits-and-the-shift-from-physical-to-paper-gold-silverBob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Tom welcomes back Mel Mattison to discuss the economic implications of the new administration under Trump's second term. He expresses skepticism towards government-released data such as CPI numbers and raises concerns about rising inflation and interest rates due to massive deficit spending and debt refinancing. Mel estimates approximately seven to eight trillion dollars will be issued this year for these purposes, with uncertainty surrounding who will buy all this debt. He suggests real inflation numbers may be higher than reported, potentially leading to significant increases in interest rates. The U.S., with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, faces a major concern regarding unsustainable levels of interest expenses.Mel shares his concerns about the historical parallels between the current high debt-to-GDP ratio and that of the post-World War II era, when reductions in debt came from a combination of surprise inflation and interest rate manipulations. The need for fiscal sustainability is discussed, with maintaining a 3% deficit to GDP ratio suggested. However, achieving this through cuts alone is considered unrealistic due to the significant role government spending plays in the economy.The possibility of a debt reset under new Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is explored, with the need for independence from China's supply chains and essential goods emphasized due to global security competition. The potential for gold and Bitcoin as neutral reserve assets is proposed, along with revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve and a move towards these assets to lead to significant increases in value.Mel discusses Bitcoin potentially decoupling from risk assets like QQQ this year due to increasing institutional adoption. Potential consequences of a global debt crisis include a revaluation of currencies through gold or Bitcoin, and economic wartime goals setting the stage for inflationary impulses to return. The need for controlling interest rates and addressing inflation is emphasized, with potential consequences including debt repression, a gold certificate revaluation, and the promotion of stablecoins. Mel predicts a significant crisis leading to market pullbacks and recoveries, while acknowledging the urgency to tackle deficit issues due to their increasing impact on tax receipts and interest expenses.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Economic Strength6:20 - U.S. Debt Holders11:33 - Debt & GDP Extremes15:20 - DOGE Cuts & Deficits21:18 - Debt Reset & BRICS28:08 - Gold Cert. Valuations31:43 - BTC & Gold Potential35:53 - Global Debt & Reserves39:16 - Tariffs Purpose & Trump42:50 - Inflation & Oil Trends46:56 - Trump Power Plays51:34 - Equity Markets Outlook56:35 - Jeffrey Gundlach59:13 - 2025 Possibilities1:01:23 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.comTwitter: https://x.com/MelMattison1LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism.
Tom Bodrovics hosts both Bob Thompson from Raymond James and Larry McDonald, creator of the Bear Traps Report, for a discussion on inflation trends in the G7 economies. They emphasize the unprecedented $16 trillion debt increase since 2008 due to fiscal and monetary responses to crises, which has led to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. They argue that the market's response is putting pressure on long-term bonds and the US currency, potentially requiring a hard asset tie for stability.They also discuss the implications of a strong US dollar for Trump's economic goals, with some factions favoring a weaker dollar. A strong dollar negatively affects U.S. manufacturing exports, hurts companies with sales outside the United States, and forces the Fed to buy bonds, potentially leading to inflation and an economy weakening.Central banks are increasing their gold purchases and shifting away from US treasuries due to sanctions and mistrust in the US government, which could negatively impact the dollar's strength. Gold stocks have underperformed the S&P 500, but may offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes at a higher level.They discuss historical gold investing regimes and the transition back towards the one where real rates are favorable for gold. They emphasize the importance of recognizing trends, being ahead of the power curve, and investing accordingly. The possibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target shifting towards 3% is discussed, which could benefit certain investment portfolios in sectors like industrial, metals, materials, oil, and gas.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Fed & Inflation10:18 - Financial Conditions?13:13 - Misplaced Optimism?18:13 - Strong Dollar & Trump?24:56 - C.B. Gold Buying31:30 - Sectors & Momentum34:30 - Entry Points & Markets36:37 - Bull Markets42:03 - Strong/Weak Bull42:54 - Energy Demand & Silver49:03 - Rates & Fed Targets52:30 - Stocks Vs Commodities55:17 - Mining Clock Cycle57:18 - Concluding Thoughts1:01:13 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeUnprecedented debt increase contributes to inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs.Strong US dollar negatively impacts U.S. manufacturing exports and forces Fed bond buying.Gold stocks offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes.Bob Thompson Links:Twitter: https://x.com/bobthompsonrjWebsite: https://www.raymondjames.ca/Website: https://bobthompson.caWhen Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada's leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada's Top Stock Pickers, a "must-read" for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean's, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Laurent Lequeu to the show. Laurent is an indpendent financial consultant and publisher of the Macro Butler Substack. Togther they delve into macroeconomic themes for the year ahead, focusing primarily on the business cycle and its impact on the US economy. The U.S., currently experiencing an inflationary boom due to low interest rates and increased government spending, is expected to face changes with the incoming presidency of Trump, particularly in terms of tariffs which could shift the economy from a boom phase to possibly an inflationary bust.Using ratios such as S&P to oil, gold to treasuries, and S&P to gold, they evaluate the current economic status in the U.S. and globally. However, potential tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. corporations and lower consumer confidence, impacting equity markets and the overall economy.Despite being in a potentially stagflationary environment by 2022, the US may face an inflationary bust in 2025, with economic trends like unemployment, manufacturing, and inflationary numbers having global implications. Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Russia relations, tensions in the Middle East, and potential war in Asia could also surprise many.Laurent suggests investing in equities and gold with a significant portion allocated to physical gold during uncertain economic conditions, while managing cash through short-term investment-grade US dollars bonds. He predicts higher treasury yields this year and suggested looking at commodities' performance relative to gold for potential re-ratings.Laurent expresses doubts about Bitcoin's utility for preserving wealth and encouraged risk management and minimizing drawdowns for investors in the coming years. They also touch upon China's economic situation, the U.S. remaining the strongest major economy due to energy independence and relative political stability. He suggests investing in sectors like oil and gas, aerospace and defense, and perhaps Canadian gold miners should the regulatory environment improve.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Different Perspective2:28 - U.S. Business Cycle5:30 - Tariff Proposals7:22 - Stagflation & Trends10:28 - Conflicts & Risks14:33 - Powell & Trump18:34 - Fed & Liquidity19:40 - Global Econ. Outlook22:44 - Which Assets When24:52 - Gold Equities?29:00 - Gold & Currencies31:44 - Golden Ratios?33:30 - Uranium & Energy?36:56 - Bitcoin/Gold Ratio40:16 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeUS economy facing potential shift from boom to bust due to Trump's tariffs.Investing in equities, gold, and short-term bonds during uncertain economic times.US to face stagflationary environment by 2022, possible inflationary burst in 2025.Guest Links:Substack: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/X: https://x.com/TheMacroButlerLaurent Lequeu, an independent financial consultant based in Singapore, specializes in managing wealth for High-Net-Worth Individuals. With a career spanning West and East, Laurent analyzes the world through the lens of the business cycle and its impact on asset class performance in a multi polar world. He also shares his insights through The Macro Butler, a global macro newsletter launched in January 2024.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tom Luongo, Tom is the producer of the Gold, Goats and Guns newsletter and blog, editor at Newsmax Ultimate Wealth Report, and contributor to Financial Intelligence Report. The Tom's discuss the significant developments during Trump's first term, judge appointments, and Europe's economic instability.Luongo reflects on the impact of Trump's appointment of conservative judges and the Democrats' efforts to maintain control in certain jurisdictions. He discusses Europe's economic collapse, with concerns about the Euro's free fall, instability in the UK, US-German bond spreads, and tensions between the US and Russia.Luongo discusses Trump's options regarding a weaker dollar through protection tariffs, deregulation, and lower cost of capital. He explores market volatility due to central bank interventions and speculates on the implications of inflation, political tensions, and changes in power in Canada.Regarding oil, Luongo critiques undervalued prices and their impact on various economic aspects. He shares his thoughts on Judy Shelton's idea involving gold as collateral on the yield curve as a potential solution to the country's fiscal crisis.Luongo encourages listeners to focus on solutions rather than problems and discusses differences in economic policies under Powell-led Federal Reserves between Trump and Harris administrations. He expects that 2025 will be a new type of crazy.Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Trumps 2nd Term11:07 - Euro Collapse Effects20:02 - Trump & Weaker Dollar27:56 - Dollar Assets & Markets39:46 - Views On America49:00 - DOGE & Reforming Gov't59:20 - Commodity Nations1:05:35 - Inflation & Trump?1:18:00 - Powell's Actions1:21:18 - Restructuring NATO?1:25:24 - Peak Oil & Incentives1:31:56 - Judy Shelton & Gold1:36:50 - Gold Redemptions?1:44:55 - Derailing Trump1:51:29 - 2025 A New Crazy1:55:00 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeTrump's first term marked by conservative judge appointments influencing the court system.Europe's economic instability causing concerns, potential impact on US investors, and tensions with Russia.Tom advocates for America to save money through reducing overseas spending, closing military bases, and accepting losses.Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGunsCornerstone Forum: https://www.showpass.com/cornerstone25/Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot."Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model.Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.To sum up: "Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along."He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.In short, he says, "I'm a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker."Lastly,
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back long-term contrarian investor and entrepreneur Simon Mikhailovich for a discussion centered around first principles, focusing on precious metals, commodities, economics, geopolitics, trade, and monetary matters. The conversation begins with the acknowledgement of high levels of uncertainty and complexity, making accurate forecasts challenging.Mikhailovich distinguishes between speculating on precious metals versus using them as a reserve asset. For speculation, market drivers are pertinent. However, for gold as a reserve asset, its unique property as the only financial asset without a counterparty makes it inversely correlated to confidence and trust in other people's promises.The conversation touches upon the concept of the fourth turning and where we are in this cycle. Mikhailovich underscores the significance of understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold. He also discusses how post-World War II arrangements have led to the United States' hegemonic role economically and militarily, and the start of financialization and globalization.Mikhailovich raises concerns about understated inflation and its potential impact on real economic growth or contraction. He also highlights the lack of clear guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in navigating through uncertain conditions.They explore the winners and losers of the global economy, with tactical gains for Wall Street investors, technology industries, and certain countries like China. However, working people have been losing due to job outsourcing. Mikhailovich mentions China's growing power and desire for independence from the United States as potential challenges to the current economic order.The conversation delves into geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with borders becoming less inviolable after World War One and World War Two. The Suez Canal's declining traffic and resulting increased costs serve as an example of inflationary pressures.Mikhailovich discusses the significance of gold as a financial asset and its increasing demand, particularly from China and other countries, as a response to a loss of confidence in the global financial system. He also mentions the relationship between digital currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar, suggesting that regulatory actions could impact their independence from the dollar and the broader financial system. Lastly, Simon emphasizes understanding the complexities, considering various data points, focusing on resiliency, and looking at first principles.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Uncertainties & Metals4:22 - The Fourth Turning9:00 - Statistics & Reality17:00 - Wars, Rumors & Borders26:47 - Economic Fragility33:55 - Gold & Eastern Buying38:30 - Trump & U.S. Dollar41:18 - Gold & Confidence50:07 - Trump & Bond Markets53:56 - World Has Changed1:03:02 - Inflation Vs. Panic1:05:20 - Socialism & Competence1:10:02 - A Serious Situation1:13:13 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeGold as a reserve asset is inversely correlated to confidence in other people's promises.Understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold is crucial.Concerns about understated inflation, lack of clear guidance from Jay Powell, and China's growing power pose challenges.Guest Links:Twitter: https://c.com/S_MikhailovichWebsite: https://www.bullionreserve.comSimon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold.
Tom welcomes Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, to discuss commodities and their prospects for 2025. McGlone acknowledges challenges such as lower oil and grain prices, harming producers due to a global surplus and decreasing Chinese demand driven by electric vehicle adoption. He anticipates continued declines in industrial metals like copper and explores geopolitical risks, particularly market implications of tensions between the US and adversaries – China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. McGlone suggests gold as a prudent investment due to its performance during volatile markets when stocks and Bitcoin underperform.
McGlone discusses technological advancements and their impact on the economy. He suggests an investment strategy of rotating between gold and Bitcoin at highs and lows based on their current divergence in performance. McGlone expresses concerns over Bitcoin’s excessive ETF inflows as a sign of market speculation. Regarding silver, he suggests the silver-gold ratio should be higher based on volatility and historical patterns, with potential implications if China buys silver through ETFs to address economic challenges. Anticipating potential corrections in the US stock market, increased unemployment, and bond yield issues could lead to a different silver-gold ratio.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Commodities in 2025
3:22 – Global Demand Decline
5:08 – U.S. & China Deficits
10:38 – Commodities & Tariffs
16:34 – Bitcoin ‘Indicator’
20:22 – Tether & Treasuries
26:07 – Gold/Bitcoin Ratio
30:28 – ETF Demand & Flows
33:16 – Market Correction?
37:04 – 2025 Gold Target
39:42 – Thoughts on Silver
42:25 – Concluding Thoughts
43:45 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/
Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.
Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor’s of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University. He is a CFA Charter holder and has earned a Financial Risk Manager designation.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, the author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. Lobo leads a team that provides independent due diligence and evaluations for investors, filling a role similar to consumer reports or brokers. He discusses the growth of their business despite industry downturns, reflecting on Rick Rule’s advice about building teams and filling different market niches.
The conversation shifts to macroeconomic topics, including the impact of fiscal dominance on monetary policy and potential economic consequences. Lobo shares his past prediction of a U.S. recession in 2024 being incorrect and credits Lynn Alden’s fiscal dominance thesis for ongoing deficit spending.
Lobo also explains the implications of soft landings, potential stagflation or reflationary economies, and the role of copper as an economic indicator. He emphasizes the importance of current market trends over ideological theories and due diligence in investment decisions. He shares his highest conviction trades for gold, uranium, and copper for various years, with copper being his top pick for 2025 based on bullish economic context and the favorable supply-demand fundamentals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – The Gang of Rogues
5:16 – Macro Picture & Signs
9:40 – Fed & Fiscal Dominance
14:30 – Voting Harder
16:44 – Industrial Recession?
23:53 – Inflation Waves
32:14 – Dr. Copper?
36:57 – Fundamentals Matter?
42:00 – Copper Grades & Costs
45:45 – Pre Prod. Sweet Spot
52:20 – Promises Vs. Reality
55:14 – High Conviction Play
58:06 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Lobo’s team provides independent investment evaluations, filling a role like consumer reports or brokers.
- Macroeconomic topics discussed include fiscal dominance, recession predictions, and economic implications.
- Copper is his top pick for 2025 due to bullish economic context and favorable supply-demand fundamentals.
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former congressman Dr. Ron Paul from Texas and Liberty Report host to discuss the link between liberty and the economy. Dr. Paul insists that freer societies are more prosperous, advocating for a sound monetary policy as crucial for economic health. He condemns interventionist policies and criticizes the Federal Reserve’s manipulation of interest rates, citing 1921 as evidence of a hands-off approach leading to a better recovery from an economic downturn.
During the conversation, Dr. Paul expresses his aspiration to terminate the Federal Reserve and proposes steps towards accomplishing this goal, including repealing the Federal Reserve Act and enforcing the Constitution. Although he acknowledges that the process might not be easy due to the nation’s addiction to low-interest rates and easy money, he emphasizes the importance of recognizing inflation as a tax on people’s money and advocates for Fed auditing as a path to transparency.
Dr. Paul supports gold-backed bonds as a means of promoting fiscal restraint and offering individuals a valuable savings opportunity. He denounces tariffs as an ill-conceived solution for economic matters, suggesting instead the elimination of burdensome business regulations. Furthermore, Dr. Paul expresses concerns about government information’s lack of transparency and encourages citizens to educate themselves on constitutional principles in order to safeguard individual liberties.
Dr. Paul concludes by urging listeners to act upon their convictions and principles, underlining the significance of education in history and economics. He also presents his homeschooling curriculum as a substantial contribution to fostering individual liberty and countering excessive government control over education and healthcare. Ultimately, Dr. Paul underscores the importance of personal accountability and the risks of government intervention in diverse areas.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Economics of Liberty
3:24 – Government Efficiency
5:00 – Audit & End The Fed
12:58 – Shelton & Gold Bonds
14:36 – Tariffs & Regulations
23:12 – Accurate Information?
25:36 – What Should We Do?
27:29 – Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/ronpaul
Website: http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/
Website: http:///ronpaulinstitute.org
Ron Paul is an American author, physician, and former politician. He was the U.S. Representative for Texas’ 14th and 22nd congressional districts. Ron represented the 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977 and from 1979 to 1985 and then represented the 14th congressional district, which included Galveston, from 1997 to 2013. On three occasions, he sought the United States presidency: as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988 and as a candidate in the Republican primaries of 2008 and 2012. Paul is a critic of the federal government’s fiscal policies, especially the Federal Reserve and the tax policy, as well as the military-industrial complex and the War on Drugs. Paul has also been a vocal critic of mass surveillance policies such as the USA PATRIOT Act and the NSA surveillance programs. Paul was the first chairman of the conservative PAC Citizens for a Sound Economy and has been characterized as the “intellectual godfather” of the Tea Party movement.
A native of the Pittsburgh suburb of Green Tree, Pennsylvania, Paul is a graduate of Gettysburg College and the Duke University School of Medicine, where he earned his medical degree. He served as a flight surgeon in the U.S. Air Force from 1963 to 1968. In addition, Ron worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist from the 1960s to the 1980s. He became the first Representative in history to serve concurrently with a son or daughter in the Senate when his son, Rand Paul, was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kentucky in 2010.
Paul is a Senior Fellow of the Mises Institute and has been an active writer, publishing on the topics of political and economic theory and publicizing the ideas of economists of the Austrian School such as Murray Rothbard and Ludwig von Mises during his political campaigns. Paul has written many books on Austrian economics and classical liberal philosophy, beginning with The Case for Gold (1982) and including A Foreign Policy of Freedom (2007), Pillars of Prosperity (2008), The Revolution: A Manifesto (2008), End the Fed (2009) and Liberty Defined (2011).
Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics for a discussion on the geopolitical landscape and growing frustration with government. Armstrong expresses his belief in an increasing frequency of impactful events due to disillusionment with western governments. Martin delves into the deep state, historical examples of centralized governments leading to instability, and the need for decentralization and respect for individual sovereignty.
Armstrong shares personal experiences and insights about Trump and RFK’s anti-war stances. Martin touches upon historical issues, including World War II, communism, the Roman Empire, war causes, and the use of sanctions. Concerns are raised about unsustainable debt systems and their correlation with conflict.
Tom pivots the conversation to Argentina’s recent budget surplus, potential application in making cuts to U.S. government waste. Criticisms follow regarding Federal policies to undermine U.S. States and inact gun control.
Predictions for an economic depression by 2032 are shared, with discussions on differences between a recession and a depression, government debt defaults, interconnectedness of economies, and concerns over career politicians. The role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, and potential implications for the world economy are also discussed.
China and Russia’s potential role in a global economic takeover, natural resources, the Ottoman Empire, monetary crises, gold on the yield curve, practical implications, gun control, authoritarianism, and vigilance are among other topics covered.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Many Geopolitical Shifts
12:32 – Trump & Ending Conflict
27:39 – Cutting Back Gov’t
36:30 – Civil Unrest Preps
46:15 – 2032 – The End Game
53:42 – Trump, BRICS, & Dollar
1:04:54 – Russia’s Resources
1:07:58 – Risks & Solutions
1:13:50 – Shelton & Gold Bonds
1:18:33 – National Guard Concerns
1:21:08 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Growing disillusionment with governments leads to increased impactful events: Armstrong emphasizes decentralization and respect for sovereignty to prevent global unrest.
- Trump, RFK’s anti-war stances discussed: Influence on NATO territories like Afghanistan and Ukraine, personal meetings recounted.
- Predictions of economic depression by 2032: Discussions on debt defaults, interconnected economies, and career politicians’ concerns.
Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.com
Twitter: https://x.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
“In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.”
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.
Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove to the show. Chrisopher is President and Director of Commerce Resources and an expert on the rare earth element market.
Despite China’s lack of direct involvement in the export halt of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S., it underscores Beijing’s dominance in the sector. With the surge in demand for rare earth elements due to technology advancements, particularly permanent magnets for electric vehicles, no new significant producers have emerged since 2011-2012. Prices have reverted to levels last seen then as a result. China’s manipulation of input feedstock prices has caused unease and encouraged nations to seek alternative rare earth element sources
The US Department of Defense is investing in vertically integrated supply chains, as shown by the Defense Industrial Base Consortium and the Global Partnership Initiative. China’s market dominance remains a concern but presents an opportunity for countries to invest in creating alternative sources. Chris discusses the challenges he faced as CEO of Commerce Resources, including high Canadian mining regulations and the repeal of the uptick rule on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This rule change has led to significant losses for resource companies when they release positive news. Grove plans to list Commerce Resources on the Australian stock exchange in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2025 as a potential solution to address this challenge. The discussion discusses the complexities and challenges of mining in Canada and importance of advocacy efforts to relevant government bodies.
Commerce Resources is completing an updated preliminary economic assessment for its Ashram project and awaiting responses from grant opportunities in Canada and the United States.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Rare Earths & China
8:15 – China & Processing
11:33 – Western Deregulation?
15:50 – Substitution
18:59 – Recycling?
19:57 – Adapting to China
21:34 – Biggest Deposits?
25:45 – Personal Challenges
29:21 – Miners & Shorting
34:52 – Canadian Challenges
38:15 – Commerce Resources
41:33 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- China’s dominance in rare earth elements poses challenges but also opportunities.
- No significant new rare earth producers have emerged since 2011-2012.
- US Defense Department investing in vertical supply chains to reduce dependence on China.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescce
Website: https://commerceresources.com/
Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.
Tom Bodrovics engages in a discussion with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, former Fed Insider, and author of the book “Fed Up.”
Danielle stresses the importance of monitoring private sector actions, particularly in 2025 due to recent job losses and the significance of shelter inflation’s impact on the Federal Reserve. She highlights an upward trend in unemployment rates and potential recession expectations, but does not believe one is necessary. The conversation touches upon central bankers’ confidence bubble and its implications for the current economic climate.
They also delve into commercial real estate markets and the potential repercussions on banks and markets. Serious concerns in this sector have led to double defaults on commercial mortgage-backed securities, with regulators putting pressure on credit rating agencies not to downgrade them.
Tom also inquires about other financial burdens, such as rising unemployment, falling house prices, and mortgage delinquencies, which contribute to significant household financial pressures. Canadian banks have announced larger losses but maintain they are contained. Banks attempt to slow charge-offs by modifying loans and extending terms, but this approach has limitations due to the possibility of re-default.
Danielle concludes the conversation by encouraging listeners to maturely face sacrifices and embrace long-term benefits that come with cutting government waste.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – The Economy & Stats
2:49 – Unemployment & Layoffs
3:38 – Powell & Trump
4:37 – Revisions & Recession
6:25 – Bankruptcies & Rates
8:13 – C.B. Confidence/Hubris
11:22 – Dollar Strength & Trump
14:57 – Inflation Thoughts
16:47 – Housing Confidence
19:38 – Commercial Real Estate
20:57 – Consumers & Banking
22:37 – Safe Assets & Dividends
24:14 – Buy Now Pay Later?
26:42 – 2025 and Gov’t Spending
27:49 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Danielle emphasizes investors monitor private sector actions amid job losses, shelter inflation, and potential recession concerns.
- Concerns center around Central bankers’ ‘confidence’, commercial real estate risks, and household financial pressures.
- DiMartino cautions listeners that Trump cuts may require short to medium term sacrifices to gain long-term benefits.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Tom welcomes back Tim Price from Price Value Partners, to discuss the happenings on the other side of the pond. Price shares concerns over Europe’s chaos, comparing it unfavorably to the US under Trump, who he sees as reducing ‘woke culture’ and neo-Marxist economic policies. He criticizes the media for losing credibility due to untruths and emphasizes the importance of understanding debt economics. Price reflects on his experiences during the exchange rate mechanism crisis and shares skepticism towards state planning, believing it has historically failed. Tim also covers the potential swing from left to right in politics and corruption issues, with Trump’s election seen as a possible catalyst for change.
Additionally, gold or non-fiat money is suggested as an alternative to the corrupted monetary system. Price calls for individual empowerment and market efficiencies, criticizes central banks, and advocates for real assets and value investing. He discusses potential implications of Bitcoin reaching new heights and Tether’s role in it. Throughout the interview, Tim Price encourages listeners to consider traditional investments like gold and silver, often overlooked despite their attractive valuations compared to the stock market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – State of Europe
2:48 – Trump & Pendulum Swings
7:54 – Trends & Growing Debt
10:17 – Bond Mkt Predictions
15:50 – Endemic Issues
20:23 – Milei & Trump
22:04 – Global Cuts & Change
23:00 – Fixing Corrupt Money
26:55 – The Invisible Hand?
31:34 – 40-Year Rate Regime
37:30 – Too Early & Wrong
44:53 – Silvers Potential
48:04 – Finding Cheap Assets
50:00 – Bitcoin 100k
50:55 – Dollar Strength?
55:42 – Time & Cheap Assets
59:43 – Miners Underperformance
1:02:17 – Contraian-isms
1:03:07 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Europe’s chaos contrasted unfavorably to US under Trump, with concerns over ‘woke culture’ and neo-Marxist economic policies.
- Media narratives criticized for losing credibility due to untruths, stressing importance of understanding debt economics in politics.
- Skepticism towards state planning historically, individual empowerment, real assets, value investing promoted.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TimPrice1969
Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/
War On Cash: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/war-on-cash/
Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentary
Tim’s Podcast: State of the Markets
Books
Tim’s Book (Amazon): https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Book Recommendations:180 Degrees (Amazon): http://tinyurl.com/3vjvpnud
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website.
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back David Morgan, founder of The Morgan Report, for a discussion centered around their respective recent interviews with Dr. Judy Shelton. They highlight her advocacy for the moral obligation of money and her belief in an honest monetary system that fosters freedom and stability. Morgan believes these views align with his life’s work.
The conversation touches upon potential solutions for imposing monetary discipline on the government, including the idea of long-term gold bonds and a bimetallic standard consisting of both gold and silver. The benefits of a bimetallic system include regulation of inflation, but its practicality is questioned due to the current market values of gold and silver.
Morgan also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in the US monetary system, suggesting that commercial banks create most of the money through loans and advocating for the Treasury to manage monetary policy according to the Constitution. He expresses skepticism towards Central Bank Digital Currencies due to concerns over privacy and potential loss of control by individuals.
David Morgan shares his long-term perspective on investing in silver, emphasizing its importance as a form of financial security and potential return to being a monetary asset. He also discusses the industrial uses of platinum and palladium and expresses his bullish sentiment towards these metals. In conclusion, Morgan advocates for self-reliance, fundamental human values, and focuses on the human spirit despite skepticism towards politics.
David Morgan is working on a documentary called “Silver Sunrise” that explores the monetary system, stress, fear, and control related to money, featuring interviews from renowned figures like G. Edwin Griffin, Ron Paul, Ellen Brown, and Mark Passio, set for release early next year.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – Dr. Judy Shelton
6:47 – Silver Standard?
10:07 – Fed’s Role & Ron Paul
13:48 – CBDC Concerns
16:35 – Trumps Cabinet Picks
22:54 – Silver Expectations
25:48 – China, Russia, & India
29:06 – Platinum & Palladium
31:07 – Sentiment in Metals
33:42 – Silver Sunrise Documentary
38:15 – Holiday Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/silverguru22
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru
Documentary: https://silversunrise.tv
David is a precious metals enthusiast with degrees in finance and engineering, and he originated The Morgan Report. This monthly report covers economic news, the global economy, and substantial capital gains by investing in the Resource Sector. The Model Portfolio includes top-tier, mid-tier, speculative, and special situations.
David considers himself a big-picture macroeconomist whose main job is educating people about honest money and the benefits of a sound financial system.
A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker worldwide, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has interviewed- The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Investing Rules, and numerous other publications.
As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report, and numerous other publications.
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates to discuss the current economic macro picture, including rising inflation and potential economic depression despite subdued market crashes. Lepard expresses skepticism towards government statistics suggesting a lack of real growth since 2008 and warns of risks for investors holding traditional assets due to high stock valuations caused by the Federal Reserve’s policies like zero interest rates and quantitative easing.
The conversation then shifts into the importance of liquidity in driving the stock market and the potential implications for the bond market and US federal government spending. Lepard expresses concern about a potential debt doom loop as rising interest rates could result in yield curve control, leading to inflation. They also discuss Trump’s economic policies and the potential impact on the U.S. dollar.
They further debate the current state of inflation and its future developments, with Lepard predicting another wave due to increased government spending. Larry discusses the underperformance of miners in both gold and Bitcoin markets and the shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in the US dollar’s stability. Lastly, Lawrence discusses his upcoming book on monetary issues and the importance of sound money.
Time Stamp Reference0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Inflation Metrics
2:25 – Equity Valuations?
9:00 – Capital Concentration
12:08 – Excessive Liquidity
16:19 – Bond Markets & Deficits
22:16 – Cutbacks & Obligations
24:24 – Trump & Lower Dollar
31:10 – Inflation & Fed Q.E.
34:28 – Next Rate Print?
36:30 – Bitcoin & Tether
39:54 – Trump’s Goals & Caveats
42:39 – Miners Underperformance
52:45 – China’s Gold Demands
56:21 – Silver Supply Picture
59:38 – Commodities & Value
1:02:48 – Feb. Book & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Lawrence voices skepticism towards official growth figures since 2008, warning of risks for traditional asset holders due to high valuations from Federal Reserve policies.
- He also expresses concern over potential debt doom loop from rising interest rates and yield curve control, which could lead to inflation.
- The importance of liquidity in driving stock markets, with a shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in US dollar’s stability.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the election cycle and the ever expanding geopolitical instability. They discuss the geopolitical implications of the U.S. election, focusing on potential consequences in macroeconomics, energy policy, and peace. Doomberg voices concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia during the new administration’s transition period, particularly over Ukraine and Syria.
Doomberg also explores Chris Wright’s appointment as Energy Secretary under Trump, with enthusiasm for Wright’s experience, patriotism, and pro-human energy stance. Our green friend also discusses potential ramifications of the ‘drill, baby drill’ policy, such as increased energy production, economic growth, lower prices for consumers, and challenges for certain energy companies.
Doomberg emphasizes speaking up against narratives, particularly those related to climate change and carbon emissions, expressing optimism about a potential shift back to the center or right. He discusses Trump’s tariff threats towards countries abandoning the use of the US dollar and Putin’s actions in creating dollar alternatives.
The uncertain prospects for peace on the Ukraine front are discussed, with doubt about Trump’s ability to negotiate a ceasefire and concerns around military solutions instead. He also touches upon Elon Musk and Vivek’s roles in the upcoming administration.
The current state of gold mining companies and their undervalued status in the market are discussed, along with the importance of primary energy and artificial intelligence to the U.S. Doomberg concludes by advising listeners to closely monitor political developments both foreign and domestic.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:52 – Tipping Points & Elections
5:14 – Unsettling Geopolitics
9:53 – Trump Appointments
13:03 – Drill Baby Drill
18:30 – Trumps Energy Strategy
21:09 – Climate/Energy Narratives
26:16 – Tariffs, BRICS, & Dollar
33:08 – Peace & Ukraine?
36:38 – Middle East & Syria?
37:41 – DOGE Puzzlement
41:15 – Panic in the Swamp
42:44 – Markets & the Election
45:26 – Gold Fundamentals?
47:20 – Miners & Energy Services
49:33 – U.S. Energy and A.I.
52:17 – The Dollar & Trump?
55:06 – (Geo)Political Concerns
56:53 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Discussion on election implications, focusing on macroeconomics, energy policy, and peace. Guest voices concerns over U.S.-Russia tensions.
- Trump’s Energy Secretary appointment, potential consequences of ‘drill, baby drill’ policy, and climate change narratives.
- Peace prospects in Ukraine, Middle East, Elon Musk & Vivek roles, gold mining companies, and U.S. dollar threats.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Muir, the author of the Macro Tourist Newsletter and Substack, and co-host of The Market Huddle. Muir discusses market dynamics since the election, emphasizing that volatility has returned due to Trump's unpredictable tweets and policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade deficits. He argues for acknowledging these shifts rather than denying them.Muir explains how reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation of US stocks. He attributes globalization over the past two decades to an increase in global profits, but suggests that Trump's efforts to reverse this trend and bring jobs back to the U.S. might result in higher labor costs and less capital flowing into the U.S. financial markets, potentially leading to lower stock prices for the US market compared to others.Muir criticizes passive flows as the primary cause of high stock valuations and expresses skepticism about certain high-growth companies trading at such high valuations indefinitely. He also discusses potential implications if Trump successfully eliminates the US trade deficit.Furthermore, Muir shares his belief that Trump could potentially lead to a weak dollar due to tariffs, devaluation of the dollar, and lower interest rates. He expresses uncertainty about Trump's intentions regarding monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, noting potential opposition.Muir favors investing in resource stocks of Canadian companies and financial assets due to economic challenges faced by future leaders in Canada. He also criticizes President Trump's deregulation efforts and tax cuts, expressing concern over potential inflation or recession depending on public reaction and private sector credit creation.Muir emphasizes the importance of considering gold trading from a long-term strategic perspective with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) being the most important player due to their vast US dollar reserves and increasing diversification into gold for safety reasons. He advises traders to adopt a similar approach and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations or technical analysis. Gold may ultimately be chased at the end of the accumulation process, according to Muir.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:03 - Volatility & Election8:16 - Trade Deficits & Equities13:50 - Valuation Drivers22:29 - Rates & the Dollar30:24 - The Fed Vs. Trump36:17 - Recession Forecasts?37:42 - Japanese Yen40:23 - The Canadian Loonies50:12 - Managing Expectations57:04 - Change & Openmindedness1:00:41 - China's Gold Reserves1:06:10 - Golden Fundamentals1:11:00 - Outlook For Miners1:15:04 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeVolatility back in markets due to Trump's unpredictable policies on tariffs and trade deficits.Reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation in US equities.Trump's actions might result in a weak dollar, lower interest rates, and potential monetary policy opposition from the Federal Reserve.Guest Links:Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirKevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.
Tom welcomes back Chris Vermeulen, the founder of The Technical Traders, to discuss market trends post-election and the impact of the looming economic debt situation. According to Chris, the small business sector has seen significant growth since Trump's win, as indicated by the Russell 2000's jump. However, he believes that the end of the economic cycle is near and advises investors to consider defensive assets like gold and utilities due to market uncertainty. Chris identifies the current market stage as a potential topping phase, with signs such as resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.Chris highlights the challenges facing the economy, including an expensive housing market, rising unemployment, and struggling business sales in the S&P 500. Delinquencies for credit cards and commercial real estate mortgages are increasing, signaling a potential looming financial reset. The nervousness within the market is evident through strong performances of the U.S. dollar and gold as safe havens, with the New York Stock Exchange experiencing distribution selling and institutions unloading large shares.Despite a bullish stance on equities, Chris suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility before transitioning to an inverse ETF during a potential bear market. He is excited about Bitcoin's potential upward movement, predicting price targets using Fibonacci extensions and technical analysis, but remains skeptical of it as a long-term investment due to its volatile nature.Chris expresses his concerns about gold from a cyclical standpoint, acknowledging that it has reached a significant resistance level, which is part of a 15-year cycle pattern. He suggests that the measured move is complete and that gold might consolidate before potentially moving up to around $3000. Chris emphasizes this doesn't mean a downward trend but rather a pause in the uptrend.Chris also believes that the Russell 2000, representing small caps in the US, serves as an indicator of when money might move out of riskier stocks into safe-havens like gold and the dollar. He anticipates gold will resume its defensive role once the stock market starts to show weakness, making it an attractive investment option again.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Elections & Markets3:22 - When the Music Stops10:40 - Nervous Markets13:11 - S&P Order Book15:06 - Trump & Dollar Scenarios19:03 - Rate Cuts & Recessions20:47 - Overall Trends & ETFs22:54 - Bitcoin Chart28:00 - Gold Technicals31:41 - Overbought/Sold & Gold34:46 - Silver Thoughts36:05 - Next Crisis & Capital38:19 - Bubbles & Buy The Dip?42:36 - Market Stages & Strategy44:33 - Oil Market Concerns51:14 - 2025 Expectations52:40 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeChris Vermeulen anticipates market uncertainty due to economic debt situation; advises defensive assets like gold and utilities.He identifies signs of a potential topping phase, including resistance levels in gold and energy stocks.Despite his bullish stance on equities, he suggests investing in bonds, the dollar, or cash during market volatility.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense,
Tom welcomes retired naval officer Matt Riley to the show. Matt shares his background in economics and global affairs and expresses his interest in the developing BRICS system. They discuss the BRICS alliance's diplomacy, economic cooperation, and representation goals. Matt explains nBRIDGE, a decentralized settlement system, with gold acting as a stable store of value for settling trade imbalances.Matt explains the use of gold in net settlement currencies and direct payment methods for energy transactions between BRICS Nations. The bilateral central bank and exchange agreements create a decentralized system, with Dubai being the second-largest gold trading hub due to its diplomatic neutrality.Matt discusses the potential implications of the BRICS currency system on oil, gold, and silver. He suggests a more stable energy pricing structure could benefit all parties. Maintaining stability in energy prices is crucial for everyone's benefit. The current system is serving BRICS nations by isolating them from the serious debt problems associated with the US dollar-based system.Lastly Matt encourages listeners to shift focus from financial assets to community and social capital for true wealth and happiness. He can be found on X and frequently appears on Chris's channel Arcadia Economics.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - BRICS & Payment Systems4:15 - Brief History of BRICS10:22 - nBRIDGE Exchange System13:43 - Gold's Settlement Role15:08 - Basket Structure?16:41 - Volume of Use?18:32 - Exchange Dubai vs. London20:32 - BRICS Summit Russia27:43 - Playing Both Sides?31:24 - PMs & The Road Ahead35:54 - Silver Role & Industry40:07 - Oil & Dollar Hegemony46:14 - Expectations for BRICS48:40 - Bypassing Sanctions50:50 - Change Mindset & Focus53:15 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeThe BRICS alliance explores decentralized digital currency exchange systems like nBRIDGE for economic cooperation and diplomacy.Matt discusses gold's role in net settlement currencies and stable energy pricing within the BRICS system.Matt highlights potential benefits of the BRICS currency system, such as stability in energy pricing and reduced reliance on US dollar.Guest Linkshttps://x.com/efbullionMatt Riley is a follower of Jesus, Husband, Father, and retired Naval Officer. He has extensive experience in international security, as well as geopolitical and economic analysis.
In this edited X Spaces conversation, Tom Bodrovics is joined by an experienced group of precious metals experts including Drew Rathgeber, Bob Coleman, Jim Hunter, Steve St. Angelo, David Morgan and others. Focusing on the impact of recent events on precious metals markets, particularly after the U.S. election. They shared various perspectives on sentiment changes, correlations between precious metals and Bitcoin, market manipulation, and the role of managed money and futures trading. Drew discussed potential fundamental shifts in gold investments based on the election results and the correlation with increased debt and government spending. Steve spoke about the connection between precious metals and Bitcoin, noting how Trump's support for cryptocurrency could influence investors. They also touched upon market manipulation, industry trends, and the impact of rising interest rates on dealers and investors. Overall, they acknowledged dealing with market manipulation as an unavoidable reality for investors.They also discuss historical price movements in gold and silver and the possible influence of cryptocurrencies on metal prices. They emphasized the importance of physical precious metals as real assets against those backed by debt. They also discussed potential geopolitical implications and manipulation within commodity markets. Steve expressed concerns about escalating energy issues and their impact on financial debt. The conversation concluded with a focus on precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum as potential safe havens during economic instability.Drew RathgeberWebsite: https://progoldtrader.comEmail: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.comBob ColemanTwitter: https://x.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Jim HunterTwitter: https://x.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.comSteve St. AngeloWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_gDavid MorganWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://x.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru
Tom welcomes back, Jesse Felder, founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report, to discuss inflation and its impact on investments. Felder argues that American citizens consider inflation a major issue, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to contain it. He suggested the Fed might accept higher-than-targeted inflation levels in the future.Felder touches upon bond markets as indicators of potential inflation trends and the possibility of another "lost decade" for stock and bond portfolios due to current valuations. Felder criticizes passive investing, citing negative annual returns over a 10-year period, and emphasizes individual investors' attention to Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, focusing on valuation sensitivity.Buffett's massive cash position in Berkshire Hathaway was discussed, with reasons for his disinterest in gold and cautious approach due to concerns over the fiscal situation. Jesse suggests individual investors pay heed to Buffett's underlying investment strategy while acknowledging opportunities unavailable to Berkshire Hathaway.Felder also highlights the potential for a steep market reversal following the stock market's overexuberance post-Trump's election and emphasized insider activity and buy-sell ratios as indicators of earnings and economic disappointments in the equity market. He encourages investors to be cautious given current extreme valuations.Felder expresses his interest on oil and gas stocks due to the changing inflation environment and the new floor at $70 for oil prices. He believes that energy producers would benefit from a more stable foundation for their commodity, despite concerns about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's size and potential implications of inflation and peak oil production.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Inflation Been Fixed?3:45 - Fed & Inflation Targets8:16 - Bonds & Reality11:38 - Tariffs & Tax Cuts14:10 - A Lost Decade?18:05 - Warren Buffet Position28:14 - Risk Exposure & Gold32:08 - Market Exuberance36:50 - Avoiding Loss38:30 - Valuing Sectors40:00 - Energy & Tech43:44 - SPR & U.S. Production46:38 - Peak Energy & Inflation49:00 - Equity Mkt. Concerns50:12 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeAmerican citizens perceive inflation as a significant problem, despite Federal Reserve's attempts to control it.The Fed might accept higher-than-targeted inflation levels in the future.Buffett's cash position and disinterest in gold, potential market reversal, and focus on oil and gas stocks are notable.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jessefelderWebsite: https://thefelderreport.com/Articles: https://thefelderreport.com/blog/Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Tom Bodrovics interviews Doug Casey in-person at his home in Argentina assisted by Ivor Cummins. Doug emphasizes the importance of focusing on areas like economics, history, science, self-improvement, and traveling to broaden perspectives amidst political uncertainties. He suggests that Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, southern Brazil, and the Southern Cone of South America could be ideal for relocation due to their civility, open spaces, low population density, and capacity for food security.Doug shares his affinity for Argentina, despite its political instability and frequent revolutions, and praises its culture, ranching, and potential for food security. Doug expresses dismay over U.S. politics and the nomination of Kamala Harris, labeling her 'stupid' and 'evil,' alleging communist leanings. He believes that a potential economic downturn might be preferable for societal rebuilding but fears the Democrats' potential power consolidation.Doug discusses the upcoming economic downturn's potential severity and longevity, comparing it to the Great Depression, due to the historic size of the financial bubble and vast debt accumulated by individuals and governments. He advocates for individual preparedness and self-reliance, advising listeners to learn new skills, acquire gold and silver, and speculate in markets. Doug also expresses optimism, suggesting humanity might explore other planets to overcome challenges and discusses the recent election's impact on Gold and Silver prices, maintaining their fundamentals despite short-term fluctuations. He disdains market distractions like meme stocks and advocates for gold miners due to their low valuation relative to historical standards.Talking Points From This EpisodeDoug Casey advocates for relocation to South America due to political instability and potential food security.He criticizes U.S. politics, particularly Kamala Harris, and predicts economic downturn and societal rebuilding.Casey advises individual preparedness, learning new skills, acquiring gold and silver, and investing in markets.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:01 - Politics & Perspectives3:55 - Plan B & Safe Countries10:09 - Feel of South America14:44 - Elections & Kamala?16:30 - Positivity & Trump?17:28 - Power & Deep State?20:35 - The Greater Depression24:19 - Migratory Invasion26:20 - Agendas & Migration27:30 - Financial Bubbles & Debt29:40 - Fight and/or Flight?31:20 - Election & The Dollar34:15 - Gold Bull Markets?37:03 - Debt & Depression39:30 - Gold Bull Markets41:48 - Knowledge & Trust42:33 - Government Dependence43:39 - Novels & Wrap UpDoug Casey:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQDoug Casey's Take: https://internationalman.com/Amazon Novels: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhcBest-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on "rational speculation," especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug's most recent book, "Assassin," can be found on Amazon.He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you're most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey's Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.Ivor Cummins:X: https://x.com/FatEmperorWebsite: https://thefatemperor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@IvorCumminsScienceIvor Cummins BE(Chem) CEng MIEI completed a Biochemical Engineering degree in 1990.
https://rumble.com/embed/v5necnn/?pub=13ry0fIn an in person interview at Doug Casey's home in Argentina, Tom Bodrovics hosts Michael Yon and Ivor Cummins. The discussion revolves around the profound shifts in the global order post-Trump election. Michael Yon, a combat correspondent, author, and former Green Beret, underscores this era as pivotal due to evolving geopolitical dynamics rather than the election itself. He believes globalism, an age-old concept, gains traction with modern technology.Yon implicates certain entities, namely Zionists, seeking control over specific territories for their interests. He warns of their intent to target Iran, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah, and Russia. Furthermore, he highlights the struggle between oligarchs, some aiming to decrease the world population and deindustrialize Europe.The conversation delves into U.S. intentions behind the Nord Stream pipeline conflict with Russia. Factors include maintaining geopolitical distance, economic implications, and European deindustrialization. Threats from the U.S. towards fertilizer and agriculture sectors as potential means to instigate famines are also examined.Michael questions Trump's ability to end wars based on campaign promises and cautions about their unpredictability and longevity. He introduces concepts like staked goat tactics and green flag attacks, hinting at potential deception in conflicts.Emphasizing the significance of clear language and context, Michael defines ongoing issues as invasions instead of crises or migrations. Weaponized migration as an ancient tactic of warfare is also discussed. Possible safe havens for personal freedom and security are debated, with reference to Doug Casey's preferred countries.The evolving perspective on drugs as weapons is addressed, including historical examples like the opium wars. Various forms of warfare, such as drug warfare and information warfare, are explored as tools used by adversaries to disrupt societies. Personal insights from Asia regarding Chinese infiltration into American political systems and banking sectors are shared. The detrimental effects of drugs on families and society are acknowledged, with concerns about their potential to weaken resistance against adversaries' strategies.Criticisms of political figures like Trump and Harris are voiced, as well as HIAS's role in facilitating migration through the Darien gap in Panama. Influential figures like Alejandro Mayorkas, now leading the Department of Homeland Security, are mentioned in this context.Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Changing World Order10:45 - Euro Problems & Farms15:42 - Trump & The Conflicts?23:00 - Invasion of the West32:00 - Getting Out of Dodge?34:10 - Attack Vectors & Drugs38:53 - Stress and Life Quality42:10 - Darien Gap & NGO's50:52 - Building Resilience?53:20 - Gold & Jekyll Island57:38 - Strategic Metals & Silver1:00:04 - Get On Your A-Game1:01:18 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeZionism desire to control regions and planned actions against Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Russia.Globalism's revival: Yon argues that it has existed since ancient times but is now more feasible with advanced technology.The U.S.'s Nord Stream motivations: Geopolitical separation, economic implications, and deindustrialization of Europe.Michael Yon:X: https://x.com/Michael_YonWebsite: https://michaelyon.comWebsite Mentioned: https://hias.orgMichael Yon is a former Green Beret, native of Winter Haven, Fl. who has been reporting from Iraq and Afghanistan since December 2004. No other reporter has spent as much time with combat troops in these two wars. Michael's dispatches from the frontlines have earned him the reputation as the premier independent combat journalist of his generation. His work has been featured on Good Morning America, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, CNN, ABC, FOX, as well as hundreds of other major media outlets all around the ...
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Christopher Aaron, founder of iGold Advisor and senior editor for Gold Eagle, for a discussion about market sentiment towards gold post-U.S. election results and the Federal Reserve meeting. Aaron shares his perspective on market cycles and warns investors about potential resistance levels for gold while expressing caution against abandoning precious metals entirely due to unforeseen circumstances.
They explore the impact of the U.S. election, Fed meeting, Trump presidency, and the Dow to Gold ratio on markets, emphasizing the significance of considering both present situations and future developments. Aaron also discusses his analysis of the gold to silver ratio chart, focusing on trends and their implications for investors, and the potential implications of Elon Musk’s involvement in Trump’s administration on reducing the U.S. government.
Chris also discusses Ron Paul’s advocacy for ending the Federal Reserve System and the possible significance of his inclusion in Trump’s administration, as well as the expected timeline for tax cuts and regulatory changes under the new administration and broader themes for the next decade. Throughout the conversation, they encourage listeners to broaden their perspectives and consider various markets and investments beyond precious metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Sentiment & Gold
8:50 – Fundamentals & Possibility
12:50 – Dow To Gold Chart
19:50 – Gold To Silver Chart
28:52 – Dollar Index & Outlook
34:00 – Energy & Mkt. Direction
46:50 – End The Fed?
50:08 – Tax Cuts & Timeframes
52:10 – Space Exploration
59:08 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGold
Website: https://igoldadvisor.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Talking Points From This Episode
- Aaron warns investors about potential resistance levels for gold while emphasizing the importance of not abandoning precious metals entirely.
- U.S. election results, Federal Reserve meeting, Trump presidency, and Dow to Gold ratio impact markets, with both present situations and future developments significant.
- Analysis of gold to silver ratio chart reveals trends and implications for investors, and Elon Musk’s role in Trump’s administration could potentially reduce the U.S. government debt.
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 – 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
Tom welcomes back Dr. Nomi Prins, financial expert and best-selling author, about the impact of the U.S. election on markets and her outlook for the economy. Dr. Prins highlights the disconnect between the thriving financial markets and the stagnant real economy, with high debt levels and inflation surpassing wage growth. The election brought attention to voters’ economic concerns, although neither candidate presented substantial plans for addressing debt and deficit issues. Trump’s promises on immigration and inflation reassured some, but his lack of a comprehensive economic strategy remains a concern for Dr. Prins.
Tom and Dr. Prins explore the economic implications of tariffs, focusing on Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports. The reduction in supply from tariffs causes price increases and inflation, potentially harming the domestic economy unless the country can offset these costs by participating in multiple parts of the supply chain.
The nuclear energy industry is positioned for growth following the election results, with companies like Microsoft and Amazon considering nuclear power deals. The state of energy development in the United States is also explored in the context of Trump’s plans to deregulate.
Dr. Prins discusses the movement of the US dollar after the election results and the potential for de-dollarization. The US dollar continues to be the world’s top reserve currency, but longer-term trends suggest de-dollarization through trade agreements in non-dollar currencies, alternative trading currencies, and infrastructure development. Central banks’ interest in gold as a hedge against risks, coupled with increasing demand from consumers in countries like China and India, positions gold to play an essential role in this framework.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:54 – Election Change Anything?
4:03 – Trump Economic Policy?
7:54 – Tarriffs & Consequences
11:35 – Senate & House
15:37 – Energy & Deregulation
17:53 – Permian Shale Status
20:22 – Strategic Mineral Reserve
24:02 – Capital Deployment Goals
26:40 – Nuclear Energy & Tech
32:54 – BRICS & Dedollarization
37:12 – Banking Architecture
38:31 – Gold Reserves & Trust
42:20 – Russia Silver Reserves
46:46 – Banks Diversification
49:02 – Banking System Stress
52:26 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Financial expert Dr. Nomi Prins discusses economic disconnect between markets and real economy, focusing on US election impact.
- Trump’s promises on immigration and inflation influenced markets, but lack of economic strategy remains a concern.
- Tariffs, nuclear energy growth, and de-dollarization are major economic shifts following the U.S. election.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/nomiprins
Website: https://nomiprins.com/
Substack: https://prinsights.substack.com/
Dr. Nomi Prins as a Wall Street insider and outspoken advocate for economic reform, Nomi Prins is a leading authority on how the widespread impact of financial systems continues to affect our daily lives. She has spent decades analyzing and investigating economic and financial events at the ground level and meeting with those that shape the world’s geopolitical-economic framework. She continues to break stories by conducting independent research, writing best-selling books, and traversing the globe to share her knowledge and demystify the world of money.
Before becoming a renowned journalist and public speaker, Nomi reached the upper echelons of the financial world where she worked as a managing director at Goldman Sachs, ran the international analytics group as a senior managing director at Bear Stearns in London, was a strategist at Lehman Brothers and an analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. During her time on Wall Street, she grew increasingly aware of and discouraged by the unethical practices that permeated the banking industry. Eventually, she decided enough was enough and became an investigative journalist to shed light on the ways that financial systems are manipulated to serve the interests of an elite few at the expense of everyone else.
Tom welcomes back Dudley Baker, the founder of Common Stock Warrants. The discussion revolves around the current state of the resource sector, particularly precious metals, and the potential opportunities for investors in undervalued mining companies. Despite recent historic highs in gold and silver prices, many juniors and micro-caps in the mining industry have not yet seen significant gains. Dudley believes that an inflection point is near, when investors will recognize the value of these companies, possibly triggered by market crashes or impressive earnings reports.
Dudley explains that warrants, often attached to private placements act as incentives for investors, offering upside leverage and can be tradable. He emphasizes the importance of liking the underlying company before investing in its warrant and shares resources to monitor Canadian private placements and their associated warrants. The mining sector has the potential for massive gains, especially with the vast amount of data available. Dudley maintains a positive outlook and encourages investors to look for opportunities while they are still cheap.
Dudley shares his experience with successful warrant trades and discusses the differences between common stocks and warrants. He explains that publicly traded warrants, which can be bought and sold like any other stock, provide upside leverage without requiring the buyer to exercise them. However, for U.S. investors dealing with Canadian companies, you need access to specific platforms for exercising warrants.
Throughout the conversation, Dudley stresses the importance of insider activity as a crucial indicator for potential investments and shares his extensive database of warrants in various sectors. He also discusses misconceptions about stock warrants and offers advice on making informed investment decisions based on price charts and personal risk tolerance.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:14 – Macro Picture Resources
5:00 – Crash & Capital Shift?
7:30 – Elections & Trades
10:13 – Precious Metals & Politics
14:05 – Insider Activity
16:42 – Warrants Vs. Stocks
28:18 – Other Sectors & Opportunity
32:52 – Analysing Companies
39:06 – Warrant Watchlist
40:33 – Accessing Warrants?
46:00 – Picking Exit Points
52:12 – Costs & Benefits
58:05 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Resource sector on the brink of major investment opportunity due to macro background improving.
- Warrants offer upside leverage and can provide significant gains; follow insider activity for potential investments.
- Mining sector has vast data opportunities with potential for massive gains, especially in precious metals.
Guest Links:Website: https://commonstockwarrants.com
Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. Kranzler discusses the impact of the upcoming election on national debt and market conditions, expressing concern over the mounting deficit and lack of government spending reductions. He highlights the importance of military spending, handouts, and domestic spending in keeping the economy afloat, but warns of potential economic collapse without significant spending cuts.
Kranzler expresses concerns about the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings. He questions their true possession of reported reserves and lack of audits.
Kranzler believes that liquidity, not monetary policy, is the crucial factor keeping markets and banks functioning in today’s hyper-financialized economy. Despite the Fed’s reduction in its balance sheet and hawkish monetary policy, M2 has continued to grow, and over $2 trillion has been drained from the reverse repo facility to finance the treasury deficit and prop up sagging markets.
Kranzler expresses his belief that gold’s price in dollars is setting up a favorable position and silver’s cup-and-handle formation and industrial usage make it an attractive investment opportunity. He also shares his concerns about banks’ actual silver positions, the opacity surrounding these positions, and potential consequences if hedge funds request delivery of actual bars from the COMEX market.
Kranzler discusses the importance of understanding the production deficit in the silver market and investing in pure silver plays. He emphasizes that all stock purchases involve risk but is currently watching closely mid-tier producers.
Kranzler also discusses the role of confidentiality agreements and feasibility studies in attracting larger companies to junior mining projects. He encourages investors to focus on a few stocks they believe in and learn how to analyze these stocks for potential returns.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Election & Market Effects
3:24 – Implosion Inevitable
4:20 – U.S. Gold Audits & Fed
11:57 – Liquidity & Banks
16:09 – Fed’s Next Move?
20:36 – Precious Metals Outlook
28:38 – Silver Production Deficit
33:26 – Mexico & Mining?
36:34 – Silver Miners?
43:05 – Silver Speculation?
44:44 – Eric Sprott
47:07 – M&A Targets?
50:23 – Feasibility Studies?
55:10 – Streaming Agreements
56:34 – Finding Value in Miners
1:01:02 – Risks & Considerations
1:05:39 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- David’s insights on the current state and future trends of the precious metals market.
- Kranzler expresses concern over mounting national debt and potential economic collapse without spending cuts.
- The role of royalties and streams in funding mining projects, and the pros and cons.
- Kranzler’s advice to investors regarding focusing on a few stocks and analyzing them thoroughly.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
As the sun sets, the video quality improves, and Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. The discussion revolves around Rick’s busy post-retirement life, the current gold and silver investment environment, and investing strategies in the metals industry.
Rick admits his retirement was unsuccessful as he continues to be engrossed in work, but he appreciates the reduced regulatory engagement since leaving Sprott. He enjoys sharing knowledge of past mentors through interviews and events like the Rule Investment Symposium, which offers a money-back guarantee for attendees. Rick believes that attending conferences for informal conversations and connections is essential.
They discuss the macroeconomic factors influencing gold and silver investments, such as increasing costs affecting mining companies’ profitability and the potential $135 trillion debt in the US economy leading to inflation and boosting metal prices. The conversation delves into investing strategies for retail investors, from owning physical gold first to building a portfolio based on beta.
Rick shares his experiences with political risk and success stories in countries like Chile, Congo, and South Sudan, emphasizing the importance of understanding political and jurisdictional risks. He discusses investment opportunities in natural resource sectors like gold and silver, as well as contrarian picks such as North American natural gas and the lithium market. Rick also expresses interest in investing in private placements that can significantly enhance a company’s value.
Throughout the conversation, they touch upon topics such as patience, long-term vision, competency, and corporate strategy. They also discuss the importance of having an opinion on value and being able to endure market volatility. Rick shares key lessons from his career as an investor, stressing the significance of contrarianism, understanding market dynamics, and patience.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:48 – Failing at Retirement
3:00 – Conference & Guarantee
5:36 – State of Resource Sector
8:54 – Fed Cuts & Politics
17:07 – A Triumph of Politics
18:35 – Shelton & Gold Treasuries?
20:18 – First Gold Bull Moves
25:30 – Investor Risk Appetites
27:02 – Global Demand & Bullion?
30:36 – Investor Types & Gold
35:32 – Studying Miners & Risks
39:30 – New Investor Advice
42:25 – Common Sense Rules
45:33 – A Contrarian Approach?
49:26 – Timeframe & Questions
54:04 – M&A Deals & Newmont
57:26 – Management & Mine Cycles
59:57 – Exploration Cap-Ex
1:04:10 – Other Mkt. Sectors
1:10:29 – Private Placements
1:12:44 – Lessons Learned
1:17:33 – Offers & Wrap Up
12:20 – Highlight Clip
Talking Points From This Episode
- Rick Rule emphasizes the importance of attending conferences for knowledge and connections.
- Now failing at retirement, Mr. Rule continues to engage in work due to his passion for the industry.
- Macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and debt, could positively impact gold and silver prices.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realinvestmentmedia
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
Bank Site: https://battlebank.com
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
Tom Bodrovics and Keith Weiner delve into the intricacies of fundamental price and basis rates in the gold and silver markets during their conversation on Palisades. The Gold Standard Institute president and Monetary Metals CEO, elucidates how their model offers insights into market tensions and potential price movements by determining where the market would settle if all futures speculation were to unwind. Keith also discusses lease rates, which reflect metal abundance or scarcity, in relation to market evaluations for gold and silver investments.
The conversation revolves around the disparity between the costs of producing and refining gold and silver, with significant spreads for refiners. Although mining costs are essential considerations, Keith argues that all potential gold supply remains in circulation due to its value and desirability. Keith challenges the Quantity Theory of Money and Milton Friedman’s treatment of gold and printed dollars as equivalent, emphasizing their differences in origin and effects on the economy.
Weiner also discusses the implications of an ever-growing US national debt and interest payments. He argues that the world operates on a dollar basis, creating a relentless bid on the dollar despite its growing debt. Keith discusses commercial real estate bubble and the impact on banks and zombie companies, raising concerns about potential insolvency due to rising interest rates and loan asset markdowns.
The conversation concludes with discussions about upcoming financial crises, including the ‘everything bubble,’ and the potential dilemmas facing the Federal Reserve in addressing it, given the larger debt levels and more significant interest rate hikes than during previous periods. Keith highlights the importance of creating an honest monetary system based on gold, emphasizing market-based alternatives to Keynesian philosophy and personal opt-out options to avoid capital debasement.
Talking Points From This Episode0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Measuring Price of PMs
8:32 – Current Market Temps
10:40 – Analysis & Lease Rates
14:14 – All-In Production Costs
19:22 – Do Fundamentals Matter?
22:57 – Qty. Theory of Money
35:27 – Debt & Interest Payments
41:37 – Commercial Debt & Banks
55:26 – Bank Bailouts & Fed
59:40 – Central Planning Problems
1:06:30 – Kicking Cans & Politics
1:11:32 – Any Possible Solutions?
1:23:18 – Net Worth & Risk/Return
1:31:10 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold and silver market insights using fundamental price analysis.
- Challenging Quantity Theory of Money and gold vs. printed dollars equivalence.
- Implications of US debt, commercial real estate bubbles, Fed bank bailouts, and zombie companies.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
Tom welcomes a well known and interesting guest for the first time to the show, Dr. Judy Shelton. Judy is Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and author of Good as Gold, passionately advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to their citizens. Sound money, according to Shelton, should maintain its value over time, acting as an unchanging standard for economic planning and transactions. She criticizes the Federal Reserve’s policy of debasing the U.S. dollar through inflation targeting, which undermines its purchasing power and creates inequality in society.
The Federal Reserve was initially established to provide an elastic currency that addressed seasonal economic fluctuations. However, the role of the Fed has shifted significantly over time, leading to concerns about its growing dependence on the government for budgeting needs and potential consequences for the economy and small businesses.
Shelton argues for market-determined interest rates, pointing to historical examples like the gold standard. She also highlights the importance of accurate data in monetary policy decision-making and critiques central banks’ conflicting policies on a global scale that can lead to currency wars and instability in international trade.
Shelton advocates for a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond, which would promote stability and accountability in international transactions. She recalls her unsuccessful nomination to the Federal Reserve and expresses her belief that economic growth under President Trump’s agenda and Elon Musk’s involvement could lead to controlling the budget and promoting sound money. Shelton urges for less central planning by governments, believing there is a collective yearning for trustworthy, stable money in society.
The interview concludes with Dr. Judy Shelton expressing her gratitude for the opportunity to discuss her ideas and the success of her book “Good as Gold” on Amazon’s charts. She encourages listeners to get radical and demand sound money from their governments for a more prosperous economy based on individual liberty.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Sound Money & Morality
2:27 – Money Vs. Currency
4:32 – Price Stability?
11:52 – Fed Control & Hubris
18:30 – Central Planning & Mkts
24:03 – Fed ‘Independence’
27:20 – Pricing Money Free Mkt.
36:10 – C.B. Global Effects
39:34 – BRICS & Gold?
44:34 – U.S. Gold Bonds?
55:30 – Golds History of Restraint
59:15 – Politics & Financial Plans
1:01:59 – Nominee & ‘Extreme Views’
1:10:22 – Book ‘Good as Gold’
1:11:50 – Get Radical & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Dr. Judy Shelton advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to ensure economic stability and planning through unchanging currency value.
- The Federal Reserve’s inflation targeting policy weakens U.S. dollar purchasing power, leading to inequality and potential consequences for the economy.
- Shelton proposes a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond for stability in global transactions.
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/judyshel
Book: Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money
https://www.amazon.com/Good-Gold-Unleash-Power-Sound/dp/1598133896
Dr. Judy Shelton is a senior fellow at Independent Institute, former chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy, and former US director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. She has provided testimony before the Senate and has been consulted on international monetary issues by the White House and the Pentagon. She is the author of multiple books and has written for the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.
In case you missed part one, the full version is available on X, Rumble and various Podcast apps.
In part two, the discussion continues around Dave’s skepticism towards various economic topics, including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and market valuations. He argues for a return to realistic expectations and understanding debt and returns.
The Professor expresses concerns about current leaders, financialization, and growing geopolitical realignments.
Dave envisions gold becoming the world’s reserve currency within the next decade and expresses his high conviction in gold investments, advocating for cash during market downturns and sharing past experiences. He criticizes the Bank of England’s selling tactics and platinum investment opportunities despite instability in South Africa.
Lastly Collum discussed his recent podcast comment experiences, the declining value of college degrees, and proposed a funding plan for student loans.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Lack of Introduction
0:19 – Staying Objective & Fed Cut s
10:38 – Hedonic Adjustments
13:54 – Easy Money & Bad Signals
22:32 – General Vs. Specialization
26:13 – BRICS Realignment
30:42 – 40-Year Bear Market
36:16 – Commercial Real Estate
40:10 – Gold & Brown’s Bottom
43:39 – Platinum & Miners
45:23 – Travel & Impressions
50:04 – Opportunity & Miners
52:29 – Podcast Comments & Tops
54:40 – 1925 S&P To Now & M2
57:00 – Ponzi Demographics
1:02:09 – Constructive Comments?
1:05:24 – Education is Rotting
1:10:00 – Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/davidbcollum
Website: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.
https://rumble.com/v5jh4sk-david-collum-part-one-bannable-banter-the-topics-that-tiptoe-on-trouble.htmlTom Bodrovics welcomes back the always entertaining Professor Dave Collum for a pre-election discussion. David is Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University and a forthright Market Commentator.
Collum expresses his concerns about the election’s candidates and their historical roles. He suggests that Trump, despite having moral weaknesses, may have matured with a stronger conviction than Harris, who he believes lacks intellect and understanding of her role in history.
Collum touches on morally unguided leaders, stating people are tired of such individuals, which could influence the election’s outcome. He also discusses potential violence surrounding the election and the impact of mail-in ballots on fairness perception. Furthermore, he shares thoughts on societal moral decay and the impacts on markets and relationships.
Dave critiques FDR’s actions during WWII, referencing books like American Betrayal, The Red Thread, and New Deal or Raw Deal.
The conversation delves back into politics and ethics. One person regretted dismissing JD Vance and saw Kamala Harris’ “unburdened by what has been” as a potentially effective message. They discussed free speech, accountability, and concerns about weaponizing of the justice system.
The discussion also questions the phenomenon of gender reassignment among young people, suggesting it might be rooted in a lack of meaning or purpose. They criticized questionable practices and silenced voices regarding the medical community and government’s role.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:54 – Elections & Expectations
9:20 – Internet Friends
12:09 – Censorship & Control
16:30 – FDR & New Deal
19:52 – USSR Made In USA
29:12 – Underestimating Dems.
32:26 – Judicial Weaponization
36:18 – Age of Unaccountability
43:25 – Kids, & Finding Meaning
48:45 – Covid & Experiments
58:44 – Influencing the Outcome
1:01:06 – Students & Tribalism
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/davidbcollum
Website: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.
Tom welcomes back John Rubino, former Wall Street analyst, author and Substacker https://rubino.substack.com for a discussion on the gold mining industry’s recent trends during the third quarter earnings reports. Despite the increase in gold prices, mining stocks have underperformed due to factors like rising costs and geopolitical risks. However, strong earning reports from top companies are attracting momentum investors, potentially triggering a bull market for precious metals. John emphasizes the importance of investing psychology and buying undervalued assets during bear markets. He also discusses the cyclicality of mining sector, potential acquisitions following strong earnings, and the significance of both fundamental setups and technical indicators when considering gold and silver investments. Additionally, Russia’s decision to buy silver for its strategic reserve fund is affecting the silver market by tightening supply and increasing upward pressure on prices. Despite economic uncertainties, investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in this environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Miners & Earnings
4:56 – Underperformance?
7:09 – Numerous Good Sectors
11:03 – Peaky Bubbles
15:28 – Miners, Cycles, & M&A
21:14 – Miner Behaviors & Results
27:56 – Buyouts & Shareholders
30:12 – Technicals/Fundamentals
36:42 – Wage Price Spiral
41:58 – Russia Buying Silver
43:51 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Mining stocks underperformed despite gold price increase due to rising costs and geopolitical risks.
- Strong earnings reports from top companies attract momentum investors, potentially sparking precious metals bull market.
- Invest in undervalued assets during bear markets for long-term gains; consider both fundamentals and technicals.
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.com
Books: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the stock market’s present condition in relation to the upcoming US election. Michael expresses his view that the markets have not fully accounted for the uncertainty and potential instability arising from the election. He references historical precedents of market reactions following unpredictable election results, specifically the bull market peaks in 2000 and 2007, where interest rate cuts after periods of hikes led to significant downturns.
Michael shares his perspective on the economy, emphasizing that the Fed has shifted its focus from inflation control to defending the economy due to Powell’s concerns over an inadequate job market, particularly in manufacturing and essential industries, and a looming debt crisis. He discusses the potential consequences for the bond market and gold prices, suggesting that when the stock market corrects, data points will shift, prompting Fed concern about solvency and the need to roll over substantial amounts of debt with increasing interest costs.
Michael discusses the potential for a government debt crisis and its impact on gold, predicting a short-term rally in T-bonds as assets flow out of stocks into perceived safety but an ultimately downward trend in terms of price and upward yield. He also highlights the significance of commodities related to agriculture, energy, and base metals following gold’s lead during market upswings.
Michael explains the correlation between stock markets and the US dollar index, emphasizing that increased losses may create demand for the dollar but warning that historically, major swings in the dollar index have followed the stock market trends rather than assisting it in times of potential breakdowns.
Michael uses an analogy to describe gold’s relationship with silver, viewing it as a ‘mama market’ with silver acting as an unpredictable ‘wild dog on a leash.’ He explains that while gold sets trends, silver exhibits seemingly irrational swings but ultimately follows the same direction. The underperforming gold miners GDX are expected to outperform gold in the future, and silver’s industrial significance could lead to increased attention once prices take off.
Predicting significant price increases for gold, Michael suggests that conditions such as stock market instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets could drive a surge reminiscent of the late 1970s and early 1980s, where gold experienced eightfold growth.
Michael concludes with a discussion of the potential for market instability due to unpredictable outcomes from the US election, with both parties experiencing desperation and panic contributing to an unstable stock market. He also references Javier Milei’s presidency in Argentina as a reminder of the need for painful changes in response to decades of mismanagement and anticipates an intriguing and consequential period ahead.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:31 – Markets & The Elections
8:04 – Yen & the Nikk ei
11:46 – Fed & Liquidity
14:15 – Bond Markets & Service
20:45 – Gold & Commodities
24:33 – Dollar Crisis & Demand
27:16 – Complexities & Timeframes
32:50 – Sell Offs & Metals
35:52 – Silver Vs. Gold Spreads
41:32 – Metals & Fundamentals
46:19 – Gold Miners & Signals
49:43 – Earnings & Margins
51:38 – Miners & Mining Tiers
55:16 – Debt Crisis & The Metals
1:02:42 – Political Upsets
1:06:51 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Michael Oliver warns of potential market instability due to US election uncertainty, referencing historical precedents.
- Fed’s focus shifts from inflation control to economy defense amid job market concerns and debt crisis.
- Gold predicted to surge with conditions like stock instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets.
Guest Links:Alasdair MacLeod Video: https://vimeo.com/1017577311/aaaf32f856
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
https://rumble.com/v5insh9-feargus-oconner-greenwood-beyond-the-illusion-exposing-the-lies-created-by-.htmlTom Bodrovics welcomes Feargus O’Connor Greenwood, author of “180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies That You’ve Been Taught to Believe.” This conversation centers around understanding the financial system and changing perspectives. Feargus wrote his book due to widespread deception and manipulation in society, aiming to expose deceit, break the hold of authority, and equip readers with effective communication tools. He believes that the financial system exists not for individual prosperity but as a tool to create money from nothing and exert control. Money has functions and attributes, and Feargus stresses the importance of understanding its origins and creation.
Feargus discusses the historical manipulation of currencies by entities like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, arguing these institutions have caused economic depressions and perpetuated corruption. He believes fixing the monetary system is essential for solving global issues and restoring free market incentives. He sees gold, silver, and crypto as safe havens against potential hyperinflation and anticipates a significant price move in silver due to increasing demand.
Feargus discusses the potential for physical demand of metals to potentially break markets. Technological advancements are also discussed as having potential impacts on the markets. Feargus believes Bitcoin will have a role as both a decentralized currency bringing freedom and like any tool has potential for tyrannical applications.
The importance of truth, and understanding situations through a lens of proving what didn’t happen rather than what did is explored. Feargus also discusses the concept of empire collapse and symptoms of decay. False flags are defined as covert operations designed to deceive and identified by broken emergency protocols, hidden evidence, and perpetrators linked with intelligence services.
Feargus discusses effective communication strategies to deploy when explaining non-mainstream topics. These include starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and practicing active listening. Feargus’ book provides further insights into these strategies. The conversation concludes by discussing the importance of morality and ethics as essential elements for the survival of any society.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:56 – Systemic Lies & His Book
4:03 – Financial System Purpose
8:20 – Money From Nothing
10:20 – Infinite Money = Corruption
12:16 – First Order Problems
15:22 – Money Supply Booms/Busts
19:04 – Central Bank Origins
22:30 – Savings Vs. Inflation
25:15 – Silver & Manipulation
29:29 – Purpose of the B.I.S.
32:25 – Possible Solutions
38:24 – Origin of Bitcoin?
40:48 – Describing Reality
45:47 – Empire Collapse Cycles
48:37 – Broken Protocols
54:17 – Facing Truth & Reality
57:43 – Elections & Fraud
1:01:08 – Ten Solutions
1:20:00 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Book: https://www.amazon.com/180-Degrees-Unlearn-Taught-Believe/dp/1915236002/
EMail: feargusgreenwood@protonmail.com
Talking Points From This Episode
- Feargus Greenwood exposes financial system manipulation by entities like the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, advocating for understanding money’s functions and considering gold, silver, or crypto as safe havens against potential inflation.
- Historical currency manipulations by institutions have led to economic instability; fixing the monetary system is crucial for global issues with Feargus predicting a significant price move in silver.
- Discussing false flags, covert operations deceptively identified by broken protocols, hidden evidence, and intelligence service links; effective communication strategies including proving non-occurrence, starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and active listening.
Feargus is the author of 180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies You’ve Been Taught to Believe. Over 10,000 hours of his life was spent researching and writing the book. The motivation for doing so was because he could see that we were being lied to, not just about the small things but also the big things, and not just about some things but pretty much everything. Furthermore, it quickly became evident that the Truth Movement didn’t have an evidence problem, it had a communication problem. The biggest challenge was therefore how to communicate the truth to others, without alienating them. Feargus has a degree in mathematics from Royal Holloway and a Master’s from TIAS business school in the Netherlands.
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, for an enlightening conversation about the gold industry and commodity space. Costa expresses his views on the current market landscape, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts could signal a structural bear market for the US dollar, with significant consequences for inflation, gold, and emerging market stocks. He also explores the potential labor market weakness and its possible link to an impending recession, emphasizing the significance of investing in industries with compelling growth prospects.
Costa delves into the subject of gold and silver markets, debating the importance of focusing on percentage gains versus supply and demand factors. He points out the long-term underperformance of the mining industry relative to gold due to a dearth of new discoveries, delayed capital flows from larger miners to smaller ones, and the general reluctance to invest in this sector.
Despite these hurdles, Tavi remains hopeful about the future of the mining industry, viewing it as a promising venture rather than a mere gamble. He stress the value of acquiring expertise, focusing on scalability, and keeping abreast of market developments. When it comes to assessing miners, explorers, and developers, Tavi advocates for zeroing in on successful ventures and overlooked assets for potential value creation.
Costa voices his concerns about analysts’ inconsistent forecasts, particularly with respect to gold prices and future earnings, regarding this disparity as a lucrative opportunity for savvy investors. He also delves into the role of royalty companies in the mining industry and their influence on various sectors. Tavi stress the significance of recognizing incentives and their impact on industry dynamics.
Lastly, they explores the substantial decline in mining investment and the repercussions of government funding and Chinese competition in securing mining assets. Tavi expresses enthusiasm for the prospective rewards in the mining sector.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introductions
0:55 – Market Turning Point
4:23 – Weak Dollar Outlook
11:04 – Labor & Job Numbers
15:34 – Inflation & Commodities
22:00 – 2024 P.M. Performance
29:33 – Gold Vs. Miners
35:03 – Investment or Speculation
39:33 – Analyzing Mine Sector
48:36 – Royalty Plays?
51:53 – Shift to Resources
59:06 – Strategic Metals
1:07:28 – Capital Necessities
1:10:16 – Chinese Investment
1:12:36 – Vision & Success
1:14:12 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicosta
X: https://x.com/crescat_capital
Website: https://crescat.net
Talking Points From This Episode
- Tavi Costa predicts a US dollar bear market due to Fed rate cuts, impacting gold, inflation, and emerging markets.
- Tavi emphasizes expertise, scalability, and market knowledge for success in mining industry.
- Tavi Costa sees potential in overlooked mining assets, despite challenges like analyst uncertainty and declining capital investment.
Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
Tom Bodrovics welcoms back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.
Murrin also shares his theory on five stages of empires, which he’s applies to Britain, Germany, and America’s power dynamics. He warns about the challenges facing China due to economic instability and military expansion, urging strategic thinking to counteract this challenge. Murrin discusses China’s economic shift towards industry growth, and the potential implications of the U.S.’s rate-cutting cycle.
David emphasizes the importance of understanding war blindness, a dangerous tendency for denial and appeasement in Western society, and the potential consequences of inflation due to economic power shifts between democratic and autocratic systems. He encourages individual action and the embrace of lateral thinking as crucial steps for personal growth and societal progress. Murrin also discusses the potential for wars to promote accelerated societal evolution and encourages understanding historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
2:15 – Perspectives & Predictions
7:04 – Humanities Blind Alley
15:08 – History & Narrative Bias
18:32 – China & Economic Issues
28:29 – China’s Strength?
30:40 – U.S. Monetary Policy
34:44 – China & Commodities
38:24 – War Monger?
42:44 – Stimulus & Recession?
46:00 – End of Globalization?
47:34 – Economic Warfare & China
50:55 – Warning & Avoidance
53:18 – Strategic Thrivers
59:24 – Wrap Up/Conclusion
Talking Points From This Episode
- David Murrin stresses historical patterns’ repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
- He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China’s economic instability and military expansion.
- Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
Tom welcomes back Matthew Pipenburg from Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland to discusses the seemingly inevitable economic decline. Matthew discusses the relevance of Ernest Hemingway’s perspectives on inflation and war to today’s economic landscape. Pipenburg emphasized the potential for political opportunists to manipulate conflicts and economic instability for their advantage, leading to long-term ruin. He also touches upon Hemingway’s background and how his experiences shaped his views on these issues.
The conversation shifts towards the importance of addressing misaligned incentives within systems and the potential dangers of fascist-like tendencies in modern politics. He discusses the implications of wealth inequality, consolidated power, and corporate influence on politics and decision-making bodies. He advocates for a reevaluation of anti-trust laws to combat monopolies in various sectors, including media, banking, agriculture, and tech.
Tom then asks about the significance of political intelligence and leadership. They discussed the historical context leading to economic crises and the implications of record-breaking public debt on society and the economy.
Pipenburg compares the economic situation Nixon faced in the 1970s with the present day, arguing that we have entered a permanent ruin stage from a period of temporary prosperity due to unprecedented issuance of debt. Matthew also explores the impact of monetary dilution on various asset classes, including Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, in relation to the diminishing purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.
The conversation focuses on the cyclicality of the gold and silver markets and their long-term trends due to the loss of trust in fiat money and central banks seeking alternatives. He also discusses the potential implications of countries like China and Russia returning to a gold-backed currency as part of their economic strategies. Lastly, he encourages patience, objectivity, and critical thinking to protect against potential chaos.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:03 – A Timely Quote
10:00 – Systems & Incentives
21:47 – Harris & Political Games
24:13 – Gold, Nixon, & Politics
36:10 – 70s Inflation & Now
41:40 – Debt & Consequences
46:13 – Expectations This Cycle
52:24 – Monetary Dilution ‘Solution’
1:01:02 – P.M. Price Cyclicality
1:09:50 – Gold Backing Currency?
1:16:18 – Objectivity & Road Ahead
1:21:06 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why Hemingway’s insights on inflation, war, and political manipulation are still relevant today.
- Addressing misaligned incentives within systems to prevent long-term ruin.
- Exploring the economic implications of record-breaking public debt and importance of real leadership and democracy.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/
Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/
Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, “Rigged to Fail”. Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Justin Huhn, the founder and publisher of Uranium Insider newsletter. Tom starts the conversation by asking about the current supply side dynamics of the uranium market. Huhn explains that most models suggest market balance around 2029-2031 but expresses concern about meeting demand beyond this point due to declining rates of existing mine production. The physical uranium market remains structurally undersupplied, and midterm fuel supply developments indicate a significant shortfall.
The discussion then delves into the historical context of the nuclear market, highlighting the shift in public perception from negative sentiment to favorable views today due to clean energy associations. The tech industry’s involvement and China’s aggressive buying add to the market dynamics. However, challenges remain, such as financial institutions’ reluctance to fund new nuclear builds and cost concerns.
Huhn then explores the unique long-term contracting market of utilities, which account for over 80% of their uranium requirements. Flex provisions have been used during periods of low or high prices but are being phased out in new contracts due to the current seller’s market. He also discusses the potential implications of Russia restricting uranium supply to ‘unfriendly’ countries, causing significant disruptions and the potential ramifications for conversion and enrichment services.
Despite historically low inflation-adjusted uranium prices following a rapid increase in the early 2010s, utilities have been securing new contracts outside of Russia to bolster their inventories. The current price environment is bullish for the sector’s equity recovery, which has already started, with term and spot prices at levels not seen in a decade. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about uranium equities lagging behind commodity prices. Huhn also mentions potential impacts of U.S. elections which could negatively impact markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Uranium Supply/Demand
7:38 – Historical Parallels
12:40 – Tech Sector & Nuclear
20:54 – Flex Contract Provisions
28:58 – Uranium Inflation Adj.
34:10 – Uranium Price & Equities
43:06 – Sprott SPUT Application?
45:50 – Russia & Unfriendlies
50:54 – Elections & Outcomes
55:23 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The uranium market is structurally undersupplied with physical uranium, leading to a significant shortfall compared to demand.
- Utilities, which account for over 80% of uranium requirements, are securing new contracts to bolster their inventories due to bullish price environment.
- Russia’s potential restriction on uranium supply could cause significant disruptions and increased prices for conversion and enrichment services.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/
Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletter
Twitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsider
Nuclear Now – Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin’s thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro’s “Focus List,” as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter’s subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
The success of Uranium Insider has been gratifying, and the emerging bull market in uranium continues to offer an unusually attractive risk:reward proposition for fellow contrarian investors.
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the record-high prices of gold and silver. St. Angelo suggests these levels for silver could be a new floor as they’ve historically returned to production costs following price spikes. The average cost of primary silver production is around $26 an ounce, taking taxes and developmental costs into account.
St. Angelo stresses the importance of distinguishing investment demand from industrial demand when analyzing the silver market dynamics. A decade ago, there was a significant silver surplus due to decreased industrial demand which has since reversed with increased investment demand. Industrial demand is expected to consume all available supply, making additional investment demand potentially price-volatile.
Steve explores the impact of energy scarcity and continued money printing on production costs, driving up gold and silver prices due to inflationary pressures. They discuss the possibility of a market correction offering the last chance to buy silver at present rates.
Steve and Tom delve into the relationship between expanding money supply, debt, federal funds rate, and silver price. Looking towards the period leading up to 2025, a market correction is anticipated due to increasing unemployment and possible employment data revisions. Economic weakness could lead to reduced interest rates and more money printing, instigating inflation and purchasing power reduction. However, Commitment of Traders reports may not accurately reflect demand.
The global silver mine supply and output have been declining since 2015, necessitating existing inventories to bridge the deficit. This imbalance could lead to a substantial correction when prices significantly surpass production costs. Concerns about marginal silver supply include transparent and non-transparent inventories, solar industry demand, and copper prices as indicators of industrial demand and potential recession.
Steve discusses the shift from LBMA to ETF silver inventories. Pre-pandemic, there was significant physical buying leading to expanded ETF inventories. However, in 2022, overall LBMA inventories decreased due to Indian purchasing and ETF withdrawals.
Finally, Steve discusses the merits of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver. While some view Bitcoin as a digital counterpart to gold, Steve contends that saving in Bitcoin is not the same as saving in precious metals. This is due to Bitcoin mining causing considerable share dilution and due to the energy costs.
Steve advocates understanding asset worth based on economic progress versus past activity, emphasizing energy’s role in asset value, and preparing for future energy realities.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Silver’s new floor could be around average production cost ($26/oz).
- Industrial demand vs investment demand crucial in analyzing silver market dynamics.
- Economic instability, the energy cliff, inflation, and supply concerns may lead to significant price volatility.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:22 – New Silver Price Floor
3:30 – Miners & All-In Costs
5:55 – Energy & Money Supply
8:44 – Types of Metal Demand
11:35 – Money Printing & Silver
15:13 – Purchasing Power & Rates
17:06 – Fed Cuts & Corrections
21:37 – Utility of COT Reports
23:52 – Mine Supply & Output
28:44 – Silver & Manufacturing
31:54 – Grid Stability & Solar
34:40 – LBMA Silver Trends
37:06 – Miner Production & Shares
40:35 – Dedollarization & Gold
47:50 – Dr. Copper & Economy
51:34 – Energy & Volatile Mkts.
54:13 – Energy, GDP, & Debt
55:20 – Federal Deficits Chart
57:10 – Trends & Collapse
1:00:48 – U.S. Spending & Budget
1:02:50 – Bitcoin & Precious Metals
1:06:10 – Energy Store of Value
1:09:25 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI “Energy Returned On Invested” stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, PMBull, Deviantinvestor, PMBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults. They explore current trends and insights in the precious metals markets. With gold and silver reaching record highs, excitement for investors should be palpable, but retail participation remains low due to factors like premiums and negative sentiment. High net worth individuals continue driving demand and the impacts of Indian gold and silver imports and buying activity was also discussed.
The conversation delves into the dynamics between managed money funds and swap dealers, the role of options markets, and the shift from COMEX to ETFs for investment. Bob also examines recent changes in margin requirements by the CME and their potential impact on market trends. Coleman emphasizes the importance of understanding dealer business models and avoiding sensational and fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. He warned against manipulative dealers, inflating prices through social media tactics, and advises careful reading of storage agreements.
Coleman further discusses physical precious metals demand from high net worth individuals due to tax planning, estate planning, counterparty risk concerns, and potential election policies. However, lease rates pulling back and increasing COMEX inventories indicates lower physical demand. Coleman also cautioned investors about overly sensational or fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. Investors should be cautious of agreements that move liability to the client. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for market volatility, consider taking profits or protective measures, and understanding spot dealer practices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:14 – Market Status & Highs
6:52 – Shorts & Metals Demand
12:00 – P.M. ETF Flows/Demand
17:05 – Demand Drivers
19:04 – Lease Rates & Premiums
24:02 – Compare Prices & Premiums
29:04 – User Agreement Red Flags
33:03 – Sensationalism & Fear
40:15 – Selling Back Metal
44:00 – ETFS & Metal Claims
49:44 – Elections & Narratives
53:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- High net worth individuals are driving precious metals demand despite low retail participation due to premiums and negative sentiment.
- Understand dealer business models to avoid manipulative practices and sensational reasons for buying precious metals.
- Tax reductions, elections, and geopolitical events significantly influence precious metals market trends.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT (Forest for the Trees). They discuss the implications of the recent 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed and its potential impact on the US fiscal situation. According to Gromen, this cut signifies growing concerns from the Fed about the US true interest expense reaching an unprecedented level since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed’s two options are either allowing true interest expense to crowd out global dollar markets or cutting rates to alleviate it and stimulate receipts with a weaker dollar and higher inflation.
Gromen also mentions four destabilizing events: oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel, an increased US deficit outlook, the Japanese 10-year yield breaking through, and a politically disruptive event occurring in August 2023, which led to a US downgrade. With tighter financial conditions for the private sector but loosest for the US government despite interest rate sensitivity, Gromen predicts a potential gap between the Fed funds rate and two-year discounts, suggesting a recession instead of a soft landing.
Luke also touches upon the connection between treasury receipts and recessions, where they usually decrease significantly during a typical economic downturn. With the US already experiencing an 8% deficit of GDP, a potential recession could push it up to 13-14%, making the country less attractive for long-term debt investment, potentially leading to inflation and economic instability.
Gromen believes that large investors or ‘whales’ are influencing financial markets by buying gold, stocks, and selling Treasuries in anticipation of the Fed’s response to positive real rates. The scenario is likened to a movie where smaller traders react month-to-month while whales steer the economic ‘Titanic’. The text also outlines two potential bearish scenarios: austerity measures from the US government causing a downturn in all markets or capital controls and taxation driving investors to seek safe havens outside of the US.
The ongoing debate about introducing a sovereign wealth fund by both Trump and Biden administrations is discussed, with concerns over its feasibility given the current financial situation. Instead of running a surplus, governments plan to borrow money and invest it in assets, creating a ‘sovereign wealth fund with an asterisk’. The speaker also explores alternative solutions like increasing spending or rebuilding domestic production capability but acknowledges that someone must ultimately own the $35 trillion in US debt.
Luke discusses various economic ideas and scenarios impacting the global financial system, including the potential for revaluing gold mechanically to inject more money into the US Treasury or raising its price significantly to invest trillions into the Treasury General Account. The significance of a decreasing Baby Boomer entitlement spend due to an increase in mortality rates and China’s approach of allowing the yuan to float against gold are also touched upon. Throughout, there is an emphasis on understanding trade-offs and making informed decisions based on economic realities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:46 – Feds 50-Basis Point Cut
2:47 – 4-Destabilizing Things
5:26 – Discounting Recession?
10:15 – US Debt Buyers
17:04 – Yellen & Stealth QE?
19:47 – Yield Curve & Signals
21:33 – Refinancing The Debt
23:52 – Debt Oscillations
25:52 – Math Doesn’t Care
29:50 – Political Decisions
34:40 – Noise & Whales
41:14 – Equity Bear Scenarios
46:55 – Sovereign ‘Debt’ Fund
50:40 – Grow Out of Debt?
55:57 – Possible Solutions?
59:05 – China & Dollar
1:01:10 – BRICS & US Strategy
1:07:18 – Gold/Oil Proxy
1:11:30 – Carry Trade Unwind
1:13:52 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromen
Website: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.
In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.
In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.
Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
Tom welcomes back Richard Duncan, economist and author of ‘The Money Revolution.’ The discussion revolves around the implications of Duncan’s latest work, which challenges conventional economic theories, particularly those rooted in Austrian economics. Their last conversation was over two years ago.
Duncan begins by recapping the ideas presented in his book, including how the unexpected response to the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion, did not result in high inflation despite concerns from Austrian economists. He also highlights the shift away from a gold standard and its consequences, such as altered constraints on money creation, government borrowing, and trade deficits.
Furthermore, Duncan discusses the impact of these changes, including increasing income inequality and implications for inflation and wealth growth. The conversation also touches upon the economic environment shaped by the pandemic and its unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, which led to high inflation rates.
Despite concerns about high inflation, the economic recovery led to significant wealth growth, enough to pay off the national debt with some money left over.
They discuss the implications of the stimulus and the lingering effects it continues to have on the economy. Richard is a proponent of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States to finance investments in new industries and technologies, such as artificial intelligence, nanotech, biotech, fusion, quantum computing, and genetic engineering. The U.S. currently invests half as much in research and development compared to decades ago, leading to a slowdown in productivity and economic growth.
Additionally, Richard raises concerns about potential market vulnerability from lower interest rates due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade and inflated asset prices in the U.S. He emphasizes the significance of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States and encourages listeners to visit his website, Richard Dunkin Economics dot com, for more information on economic events and their potential market impacts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:02 – Fed & US Money Creation
12:40 – The Pandemic Inflation
17:33 – Growth & Technology
22:05 – Pandemic Choice & Wealth
32:01 – Recent Inflation Causes
42:14 – Sovereign Wealth Funds
53:28 – Buyers of U.S. Debt?
1:03:35 – Dollar Reserve Status
1:08:24 – Fed Rate Cut Decision
1:12:35 – Yen Carry Trade
1:16:09 – Wealth/Income Ratio
1:19:18 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/papermoneyecon
Newsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.com
Hit subscribe and enter coupon code ‘Value’ For a 50% discount.
Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008.
His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022).
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. Richard currently publishes Macro Watch, the bi-monthly video newsletter he founded in 2013.
Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC, and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio. He has published articles in The Financial Times, The Far East Economic Review, FinanceAsia, and CFO Asia. He is also a well-known speaker whose audiences have included The World Economic Forum’s East Asia Economic Summit in Singapore, The EuroFinance Conference in Copenhagen, The Chief Financial Officers’ Roundtable in Shanghai, and The World Knowledge Forum in Seoul.
Richard studied literature and economics at Vanderbilt University (1983) and international finance at Babson College (1986); and, between the two, spent a year traveling around the world as a backpacker.
Tom welcomes back experienced trader and creator of ProGoldTrader, Drew Rathgeber to explore issues within the Gold and Silver industry. Drew shares his industry journey, starting in spot markets 20 years ago and transitioning to futures in 2006. He emphasizes regulation’s importance, particularly for consumer protections and audits.
They discuss problems like excessive spreads exploiting elderly clients and the need for education. Drew shares his views on social media influencers and their good and bad aspects. The conversation also covers spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew talks about Monex, a company offering the Atlas precious metals investment program. This financing mechanism targeted unsophisticated investors and generated revenue through high fees on trades, resulting in many millions in losses for customers.
They discuss investing in physical gold versus futures contracts, with smaller investments favoring physical gold due to absence of counterparty risk. The conversation touches upon issues surrounding precious metals investments using retirement funds, specifically Roth IRAs and 401K programs. He stresses the importance of understanding spreads and fees in these transactions.
Drew discusses a retired lady and why she was disqualified from opening a futures trading account. Drew emphasizes the importance of understanding risks involved in trading, especially with leverage positions. They briefly touch on contract sizes and risk management strategies, including removing market and volatility risks, using options for downside protection, and being cautious during uncertain times like Fed announcements. He stresses the importance of staying informed and managing risks based on individual comfort levels.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:57 – Trust & Drew’s Background
4:18 – Regulations & Risks
9:22 – Changes in PM Industry
14:39 – History at Monex
19:42 – Fractional Metal Programs?
23:45 – Futures Markets & Leverage
27:40 – Physical Delivery & Spreads
37:08 – Other Programs & Cautions
42:55 – Fraud Risks & Criteria
47:12 – Futures Contract Sizes
50:03 – Managing Risk
52:03 – Investor Behavior 2024
56:40 – Lessons Learned
1:01:42 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Drew Rathgeber emphasizes the importance of consumer protections and education in the Gold and Silver industry.
- He highlights the risks and benefits of investing in precious metals through spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
- Drew shares warnings about high-fee investment schemes that like to ‘churn’ naive investors.
Guest Links:Website: https://progoldtrader.com
Email: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.com
Apply Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation’s largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
ProGoldTrader.com is a dba of ProFuturesTrader.com
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver’s volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector’s potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Big Picture on Metals
3:00 – Comparing Silver & Gold
5:12 – Commodities & Metals Diverge
6:37 – Dollar Fundamentals
8:26 – Gold Charts & Cycles
12:19 – Silver Chart & Outlook
15:22 – Trades & Timelines
19:00 – COT Reports Uses?
20:18 – Silver Miners & Leverage
22:40 – Dollar & Other Currencies
24:23 – Fed & Recession?
28:03 – War Cycle & Elections
30:00 – Regression Analysis
33:50 – Metals Sector Divergence
35:35 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
- Silver’s volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
- Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest LinksTwitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1
Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videos
Website: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary’s renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.
Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary’s in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
Tom welcomes back Bob Moriarty to engage in a discussion about global conflicts and their potential impact on world affairs. Moriarty raises concerns over the United States’ involvement in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan. He emphasizes the critical nature of these events and expresses his belief in the imminence of such conflicts, which could involve multiple nations.
Moriarty questions America’s preparedness for war on multiple fronts and criticizes its past military interventions. Additionally, he discusses the importance of intelligence reports and geopolitical factors shaping world events. The conversation touches upon the upcoming US election, with both individuals expressing concern over potential chaos and uncertainty surrounding it.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an insurance policy against economic instability. Moriarty discusses investing in gold and mining stocks, focusing on the historical premium of platinum over gold, volatility of silver, and potential opportunities in junior silver miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:56 – Risks & Coming Volatility
4:40 – Conflicts & Reports
10:10 – China, Taiwan, & Logistics
13:35 – Elections & Conflict Risks
17:55 – Crises & Many Black Swans
21:40 – Totalitarian Moves
24:01 – Implications for Gold
25:40 – Mining Equities & Value
28:10 – Miners During Rate Cuts
29:49 – Fundamentals Vs. FOMO
32:04 – Inflation Waves & Cash?
35:38 – Commodities Undervalued
36:52 – The Chart
39:20 – Finding Great Miners
41:57 – Silver & Returns
45:14 – Why Platinum?
49:14 – Be Prudent & Prepared
50:33 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Moriarty voices concerns over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel, and China’s potential invasion of Taiwan.
- He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for multiple front wars and criticizes past U.S. military interventions.
- Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an economic stability insurance and discusses investing opportunities in gold and mining stocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.com
Website: http://www.321energy.com
Books on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back consultant Simon Hunt to delve into the distinctions between Western-oriented and impartial perspectives in global analysis. Their conversation evolves around the potential threats to the West’s global supremacy from the BRICS collective, spearheaded by China and Russia. This power transition could result in a loss of control over events and even the likelihood of war should diplomacy falter. The discussion also encompasses America’s historic aim to fragment Russia, recent geopolitical strains, and potential clashes in Israel and Iran.
Simon discusses the ongoing geopolitical stressors and their consequences for financial markets. Their discourse centers around the US-Russia confrontation, the influence of the deep state or neoconservatives on foreign policy, and the ramifications for oil prices, copper markets, and US equities and bonds. Simon posits that Russia’s reaction to Western antagonisms will be restrained but impactful, potentially triggering a substantial increase in inflation and a readjustment of monetary policy. The conversation also explores the potential repercussions of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East on the global economy.
Mr. Hunt discusses the motivations behind central banks and nations, specifically China, amassing vast quantities of gold as a safeguard against prospective currency devaluation and financial instability. He also voices his opinions on China’s housing market collapse being an intended move by the government to lessen local governments’ indebtedness and establish a foundation for future centralized fiscal and monetary policies if war occurs. Simon proposes that China is preparing for potential economic difficulties while maintaining a prudent stance in its fiscal and monetary policy.
Simon explores various economic matters, such as demographic problems in both the US and China, the legitimacy of economic statistics, and his views on market trends over the next few years. He suggests that the US economy might be experiencing a recession based on authentic data like deflated retail sales and employment numbers, true inflation rates, and genuine unemployment figures, which he believes are more precise indicators of economic activity than formal GDP or CPI numbers. Simon asserts that numerous countries, including the US and much of Europe, are either in a recession or heading towards one. He also expresses apprehension over governments manipulating information and the increasing mistrust among people due to heightened awareness. In terms of market predictions, Simon anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals by early next year, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates, culminating in a collapse of the financial system by 2028.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Thought West Vs. East
4:22 – Provoking Russia
10:16 – Israel & Middle East
16:08 – Incentives & Sensibility
19:17 – Risks with Russia
21:55 – Market Outlook Long-Term
28:44 – C.B./Smart Money Exiting
30:30 – China Use For Gold
33:34 – China – Housing Sector
37:50 – U.S. Demographic Issues
39:37 – Metrics & Fudgification
45:07 – Six Month Market Outlook
46:54 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, poses a significant challenge to the West’s global dominance, potentially leading to diplomatic clashes or even war.
- Central banks, particularly China, are amassing gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability.
- Simon Hunt anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.com
Website: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996.
In this episode, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the economic conditions shaping gold’s performance. Don highlights the U.S.’s weakening economy and global uncertainty as catalysts for gold’s growth. He believes that a floor for gold exists at $2,200 due to its inverse relationship with the economy.
Don touches upon the Federal Reserve’s challenges in managing inflation and interest rates, pointing to unprecedented debt levels. He voices concerns about the reliability of economic data, questioning their accuracy and suggesting consumer spending might be weaker than presented. He predicts a potential 50 basis point rate cut due to signs of slowing growth.
The conversation also addresses market volatility caused by Japan’s potential interest rate hike and its impact on the yen carry trade. Don raises concerns about imminent challenges in the bond market, which holds more significance than the stock market, as credit could get turned off when countries reach a point of no return. He advises investing in gold and silver as alternatives during economic instability and predicts significant price increases for these metals.
Don also anticipates that gold miners will benefit from a rate cutting cycle due to their improved margins during recessions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:07 – Gold & Recent Fed Policy
5:46 – Trends and Gold
8:29 – Fed Cuts & History
14:10 – 70s Inflation or Deflation
17:20 – Metrics & Data Revisions
22:37 – BOJ & Western Volatility
26:20 – Political Extremes
32:15 – Asset Tops & Metals
36:40 – Debt Servicing & GDP
40:00 – Rate Cuts & the Miners
45:37 – Insider Activity?
47:33 – Share Dilution & Red Flags
54:38 – Fall Market Direction
1:01:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold’s growth influenced by U.S.’s weakening economy & global uncertainty, with floor at $2,200 due to inverse relationship with economy.
- Federal Reserve’s dilemma managing inflation & interest rates due to historic debt levels.
- Concerns about economic data reliability & potential 50 basis point rate cut as signs of slowing growth emerge.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrial
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and editor-in-chief of its premium investment research publication. Nick criticizes central planning and the Fed’s role in managing inflation, arguing that central banks, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their antithesis to free markets.
Giambruno deemed the steepest rate-hiking cycle by the Fed to combat decades-high inflation futile because raising rates to a level impacting inflation would bankrupt the US government. He considers claims of victory over inflation propaganda, as essential prices like electricity bills and food hadn’t reached pre-pandemic levels.
Nick touches on the potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of elections and the influence of politics on its actions. The discussion covers escalating debt and interest expenses, now the largest federal budget item, trapping the United States in a cycle of currency debasement.
Giambruno advises investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals as a long-term savings vehicle, and suggests considering gold mining stocks to speculate on fiat currency debasement. He favors royalty companies over individual mining stocks due to reduced risk.
The potential impact of the BRICS creating their own trading currency on the US dollar and the changing global order was discussed, suggesting a developing multipolar world where other countries take larger roles. Giambruno believs we are in a chaotic period, likening it to historical periods of power division, and advises individuals to consider alternatives like Latin America as a potential refuge.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Fed & Economic State
5:00 – Politics, Inflation & CPI
8:55 – Debt, Interest, & Debasement
10:34 – Dollar Collapse Endgame
18:11 – Asset Alternatives
19:45 – Gold Miners & Rate Cuts
21:12 – Commodities in General
22:40 – Miners & Royalties
24:25 – Lack of Understanding
29:14 – Short Term Gambling
31:25 – BRICS Trend & Conflict
35:18 – Historic Parallels
37:23 – Have a Backup Plan
39:20 – West Political Shift?
41:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Central banks, including the Fed, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their being the antithesis of free markets.
- Investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals is advised as a long-term savings vehicle.
- The interview touched on potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the influence of political considerations on its actions.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.com
Twitter:https://x.com/FinancialUnder
Website: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He’s the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report, Mountain Vision, Ron Paul Liberty Report, among others.
Nick is a frequent speaker at investment conferences around the world.
Tom welcomes back the Managing Partner of the CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian to discuss the Fed, Gold and the current economic realities of U.S. and the globe. Jeff shares his views on the Fed aiming for a long-term inflation average of around 2%, with fluctuations accepted between 1.3% and 2.8%. He asserts that while the target remains unchanged, the Fed is being more explicit about it. He speculates on the reasons why inflation is “acceptable” to the Fed.
Jeffrey discusses the likely September interest rate reduction and potential surprises. He anticipates a quarter-point decrease followed by further evaluations in November and December due to recessionary fears.
Jeff discusses the US economy’s influence on the global stage, the significance of the upcoming US election, the importance of data reliability in today’s digital age, and the drivers of gold and silver prices.
Central banks’ roles in gold demand, with decreasing holdings by developed countries and emerging economies buying for monetary reserves, are also explored. The history of non-alignment among developing countries and the uncertain future direction of BRICS is touched upon.
Jeff explains the drivers of long-term silver prices including investment and industrial fabrication demands, with relatively low net investment demand leading to unremarkable price performance. Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is substantial but not expected to surge significantly. Fear acts as a catalyst for investments into these metals although there primary use is industrial rather than having a monetary function.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:08 – Fed Anticipation & CPI
3:25 – Acceptable Inflation?
5:33 – A Fed Sept. Surprise?
8:50 – Recession Risk & Fed
10:00 – Global Effects
13:04 – 2024 Politics & Markets
16:23 – U.S. Policy & Regulations
21:30 – Ignorance & Progress
24:12 – Gold & Silver Outlook
28:43 – Long-Term Thoughts
36:25 – Dollar Vs. Gold Demand
40:50 – BRICS Alliance
45:47 – Drivers for Silver
49:13 – Platinum & Palladium
52:54 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Fed’s fall rate expectations and possibility of a surprise.
- Global economic outlook and what to expect around the election cycle.
- Gold’s global role and the limited monetary role of other precious metals.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.com
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content. The conversation begins with a thought-provoking discussion about the global ramifications of the United States’ current monetary and fiscal instability. As the world’s leading power with its reserve currency, military might, and cultural influence, American financial or fiscal upheaval could ignite kinetic, cyber, and psychological conflicts worldwide.
Mike elucidates the intricate relationships between national power structures and influential financial entities. He issues a grave warning concerning the potential consequences if America faces a significant financial crisis or recession, stressing the significance of acknowledging societal drivers fueling long-term currency devaluation and consumerist attitudes.
Mike scrutinized the distribution of funds during the post-pandemic economic relief package, with a considerable portion allocated to the wealthy class but many individuals receiving stimulus checks. The ensuing savings resulted in inflation that didn’t fully manifest until later, leading to price spikes in luxury sectors like watches and yachts. Now spent, these markets are witnessing declines.
Mike asserts that the global economy, especially Europe, is undergoing a significant downturn, marked by widespread corporate layoffs and potential employment consequences. Jerome Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Fed meeting suggests an upcoming rate cut, which could impact the upcoming presidential election. However, rate cuts alone may not revive the economy, potentially leading to additional monetary stimulus.
Mike expresses concerns about escalating interest rates jeopardizing bank balance sheets. He is critical of pervasive accounting deceptions in the financial sector, cautioning of a potential implosion if public trust is eroded. Gold has historically served as a protective shield against collapsed financial systems by major players holding gold reserves as insurance.
Mike endorses value investing in the current market and advises against impending downturns leading to liquidity crises and widespread sell-offs. He suggests maintaining a portion of ones portfolio for speculation and emphasizes understanding risks in investment strategies. Despite the risks, he also points out historical instances where commodities delivered multiple cycles of returns following initial liquidity booms and inflations. He concludes by advocating investments beyond mere financial assets, such as health, relationships, and community.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:58 – Global Dependency on U.S.
6:25 – Saviour Syndrome?
12:33 – Pass The Debt Parcel
20:39 – Deficits & Delinquencies
27:24 – Saving The System
33:56 – Banks & Higher Rates
38:25 – Possible Solutions
47:09 – Riskiest Assets
57:58 – Russia in Contrast
1:01:55 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- American financial instability could spark global conflicts: Mike warns of potential consequences.
- Mike highlights pandemic wealth distribution issues and how they drove inflation in goods afteerwards.
- Mike discusses implications of Jerome Powell’s dovish stance, potential economic downturn, and the role of gold in protecting assets.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9Akw
Twitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mike
Patreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystems
Book Reference: https://thegreattaking.com/
Mike is a precious metal’s investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the science hype cycle and its impact on investments. The science hype cycle refers to the persistent overhyping of scientific innovations, such as solid state batteries, fusion, room temperature superconductors, and cancer cures, which often take decades to materialize. Despite progress, solid state batteries face inherent challenges due to safety concerns and complexity. Samsung’s recent announcement of a silver-intensive solid state battery may boost silver demand but diminishes its near-term relevance for investors.
Next, the conversation shifts to the automobile industry, focusing on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs reduce regional gasoline consumption efficiently, but China’s competitive edge in manufacturing affordable cars, driven by access to intellectual property, lower labor costs, and less stringent regulations, poses a significant challenge. Consumers favor affordable PHEVs over luxury BEVs, believed to be saturated in demand.
The discussion touches upon the carbon footprint of battery production for electric vehicles and the importance of recycling them. The focus should be on addressing pollution rather than just reducing carbon emissions. China’s lenient environmental regulations give it an edge in industries like magnesium production.
Doomberg advocates continued investment in nuclear, natural gas, and existing hydroelectric power due to their reliability and suitability. He dismisses fusion reactors as unnecessary distractions from proven nuclear technologies. Small modular reactors and thorium reactors hold potential but lag behind large modular reactors, which offer known designs and predictable supply chains.
The conversation addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s implications for energy markets, Russia’s role as a nuclear superpower, and the consequences of NATO involvement. Doomberg expresses concerns about the conflict’s outcome and its impact on gold as a neutral reserve asset amidst geopolitical tensions and the bifurcation of the world into G7 and BRICS. He concludes by advocating for thoughtful consideration of military conflicts and their consequences, and introspection about the wisdom of engaging in war.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:08 – Science Hype Cycle
4:19 – Battery Lifespan, & Silver
8:30 – EV Costs, China, & Hybrids
13:37 – Western EV Demand
14:49 – Carbon Use Comparisons
17:03 – Pollution & Carbon
22:13 – Efficiency & Reuse
26:56 – West GRID Solutions
30:00 – U.S. Election Outcomes
35:06 – New Energy Tech
37:35 – Fusion Technology?
39:30 – SMR & Thorium
41:05 – Nuclear Proliferation
44:50 – Russia & Ukraine
48:30 – Global Bifurcation & Gold
50:52 – Dollar & Military Spending
52:53 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Science innovations often face long development timelines and are overhyped. Examples include solid state batteries and fusion reactors.
- China’s competitive edge in automobile manufacturing poses challenges for electric vehicle markets.
- Continued investment in reliable energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and hydroelectric power is advocated.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Tom welcomes Garrett Goggin, a seasoned financial analyst with expertise in trading and a strong emphasis on alternative assets like gold and silver. Goggin expresses his views on the current economic climate marked by the U.S. dollar’s value erosion due to inflation and escalating debt. He regards gold and silver as reliable stores of value for future decades.
Goggin further explores the significance of the yield curve inversion, which he believes signals an impending recession and market correction. In past instances, gold has doubled in value following a yield curve inversion and a subsequent recession. He anticipates that this trend will continue, possibly leading to another gold price doubling. Institutions are predicted to invest in the gold sector as its performance continues to improve.
The conversation touches on the gold market’s current dynamics, including the growing interest from investors that is not reflected in GLD shares outstanding but is visible in the growth of silver miners. The demand for silver exceeds production and existing stocks, potentially leading to a deficit and an escalating price surge.
Central banks’ role in gold prices and their correlation with rate cuts during economic downturns are also discussed. Goggin predicts that as inflation persists and economies decelerate, gold will remain a valuable hedge against economic turmoil.
Garrett shares his philosophy for constructing a portfolio in gold and silver, focusing on analyzing companies rather than historical ratios or charts, emphasizing the significance of high-grade deposits and competent management. He advocates investing in inflation protection machines like royalties due to their fixed costs, minimal management, and potential for exploration success without being impacted by cost inflation. Smaller explorers and developers that can generate significant value through successful drill holes are also suggested.
The conversation delves into the characteristics of mining companies that make them attractive takeover targets, with a focus on high-grade projects, low cost operations, and cash generation. Royalties are highlighted for their exploration upside and potential to significantly increase shareholder value over time.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Background & Alt Assets
2:05 – Market/Economy Overview
3:44 – Recession & Market Crash
4:50 – Gold Thoughts & Momentum
9:13 – Inflation Outlook
10:57 – Gold During Rate Cuts
11:36 – Silvers Performance?
16:17 – Portfolio Balance
19:57 – Qualities in Miners
25:14 – Upsides to Royalties?
30:02 – Takeover Targets
31:52 – Royalty Structures
34:45 – Technology & Mining
39:43 – A Gold Top Looks Like?
43:00 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://Goldenportfolio.com
X: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin’s career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin’s conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn’t contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada’s (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
Credentialed with Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT) designations, Goggin’s educational background includes MS and MBA degrees from Babson College, renowned for its business programs.
Tom welcomes back economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to explore the manipulation and misrepresentation of economic data by government institutions like the Fed and Treasury. Williams expresses concerns over the intentional distortion of inflation and GDP statistics, which can deceive the public and impact their decisions, potentially harming the economy and markets. A notable example is the strategic petroleum reserve being drained to artificially lower gasoline prices before elections. Accurate data, Williams asserts, is vital for informed policymaking and avoiding exacerbated economic issues.
Inaccurate inflation statistics are in part leading to financial hardships for many households. Despite this issue’s potential political significance, no candidate has addressed it. He also explores the consequences of this discrepancy and its impact on consumer sentiment, suggesting that a future political campaign platform focusing on this could gain substantial support. Conversing about the potential economic pain or increased debt needed to rectify these issues, Williams acknowledges the challenges but stresses their necessity for improving conditions for the average American.
Williams raises concerns about the reliability of reported GDP figures, arguing they are heavily manipulated and bear little connection to real economic conditions. He highlights the disparity between reported GDP and underlying economic indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, attributing this gap to political constructs and the Fed’s money supply expansion. Williams warns of potential risks from an inflationary recession or depression and encourages individuals to protect themselves by holding physical assets like gold, real estate, or other hard assets. He concludes that average citizens should be concerned about economic instability arising from these factors.
John suggests that a recession already began during the pandemic and consumers should use common sense when evaluating government information.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Real Statistics & Fed
13:03 – Wages & Inflation
14:25 – Party Politics & Fixes
18:28 – Political Will & Debt
24:52 – Gold & Inflation
28:19 – Real GDP/GDI Numbers
36:56 – Consumer Sentiment
43:22 – Consistent Benchmark?
44:57 – SPR Importance & Need?
50:53 – Reality is Hitting Now
52:42 – Federal Debt & Interest
55:12 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Williams warns of manipulated economic data affecting public decisions and markets.
- Williams emphasizes the financial impact of inaccurate inflation statistics on average Americans.
- GDP figures are criticized as heavily manipulated, with gold suggested as a hedge against potential instability.
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.com
E-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com
Walter J. “John” Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back David Haggith, author of the Daily Doom Substack. The conversation centers around the current economic situation in the U.S. and repercussions on the Federal Reserve policies. Last summer, David predicted continued inflationary pressures from factors like housing costs with a one-year lag time, oil prices, and producer prices. Despite the Fed’s potential intentions to cut interest rates, David cautions about the possibility of another inflation spike, compelling the Fed to reconsider their decision.
David argues that markets misjudged the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates based on ambiguous comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Though Powell didn’t signal a change in policy, markets believed there would be a pivot due to vague statements. This misunderstanding led to significant market fluctuations and the dissolution of the Fed’s tightening efforts, necessitating further tightening by the Fed.
David also discusses the impacts on the economy during the covid period and impact on labor metrics. He believes that labor remains ‘tight’ due to a substantial drop in laborers as a result, leading to production issues. Despite some recovery, the labor pool has not returned to its previous trend line, signaling ongoing labor supply problems.
Mr. Haggith also touches upon potential market implications during the election and compares the current situation with the dot-com bust in 2000, where AI stocks were overvalued based on future potential. David warns of a possible correction similar to what occurred then. Regarding the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, David discusses the potential impact on oil prices and the challenges of de-dollarization.
David also explores strategies for safeguarding assets during uncertain economic times, suggesting alternatives to keeping money in banks or dollars due to risks of inflation and bank troubles. He advocates for gold as a store of wealth but acknowledges its limitations. Other recommendations include building skills, focusing on relationships, and preparing for transactions if locked out of central bank digital currencies.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – Fed Resolve & Pivots
10:00 – Lag Effects & Landings
13:24 – Sahm Recession Rule & GDP
16:50 – Covid Era & Economy
20:34 – Consumer Debt & Recession
22:26 – Market Volatility & Elections
27:00 – Comparisons & Conflicts
34:52 – Unknowns & Dedollarization
38:00 – Dollar & Global Trade
39:57 – Yen Carry Trade
41:10 – Defensive Measures
44:44 – Gold & Other Metals
49:07 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Further potential inflation spikes despite Fed’s rate cut intentions due to lingering economic pressures.
- How markets misinterpreted Powell’s statements, resulting in market volatility and necessitating further Fed tightening.
- Why labor supply issues persist as a result of the Covid Period, affecting production and labor metrics.
Guest Links:Substack: https://www.thedailydoom.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconomicRecess
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of the Daily Doom Substack. David began the Great Recession Blog back in 2007 when he realized the U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse. He urged family to sell their homes near the peak of the market. He decided the world needed a voice that would present more insightful commentary on the economic news of the day than what had been available anywhere in the mainstream media. Furthermore, he was amazed that so few people we’re able to see through the nonsense. He doesn’t associate with any political party, as politics keep people focused on blaming the other side and not recognizing the flaws on theirs. He’s made a number of successful market calls and forecasts for past recessions. David believes we are now entering a Second Great Recession and provides advice on how to avoid the consequences.
Tom welcomes back David Brady, a former money manager, Sprott Money contributor, advisor to 4779 Capital, and Substack publisher. Brady shares his perspective on the current state of markets versus the economy using his Five Pest process. He expresses his belief that a stock market crash is inevitable, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching around 1000. Brady warns that the Federal Reserve will likely intervene to prevent a major market drop and discusses his expectations for bonds, currencies, commodities, Bitcoin, gold, and silver markets.
Brady believes both gold and silver have been correlated recently but notes a disconnect with silver prices. He attributes the current strength of the gold market to Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates, a weakening dollar, potential escalation of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, growing fiscal deficits, increasing demand from central banks and countries like China and India, and bullion bank squeezes. Brady predicts that miners will eventually catch up with the metals’ price rise but may initially lag behind due to rising energy costs.
David shares his perspective on how miners might respond once the Fed cuts interest rates, acknowledging uncertainty about whether this could be the catalyst for miner outperformance or if it’s already priced in. Silver could also surpass gold’s performance based on historical trends, with silver often underperforming gold but catching up during major rallies.
David emphasizes the importance of looking at inflation-adjusted highs in gold and silver markets. David’s investment strategy involves tracking the beta between miners and silver, buying high beta miners when he believes silver is about to rise, selling when he thinks it’s near a top, and holding until silver drops significantly to validate the trend.
David discusses the potential impact of the upcoming US election on monetary policy and markets, with both Trump and a Democrat potentially winning but differing approaches to fiscal spending and interest rates. He labels Trump as an inflationist and expects him to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could contribute to inflation and benefit gold and silver.
Lastly, David also mentions his concern about larger investment funds that only rebalance their portfolios quarterly or monthly. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for financial instability by holding physical metals, farmland, becoming self-sufficient, and paying off debt.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Davids Market Outlook
6:12 – Fed Reaction & Banks
11:56 – BRICS ‘The Unit’
15:05 – Equity Drawdowns & Metals
16:06 – Performance Gold Vs Silver
23:10 – Fed Cut a Miner Catalyst?
26:08 – Silver Chart
35:25 – Inflation Adj Highs
39:10 – High Beta Miners
45:00 – U.S. Political Outlook
54:08 – Drawdowns Vs. Physical
56:22 – Have a Plan B & Skills
1:00:22 – Crisis & Big Funds
1:04:50 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/
Fund Website: https://4779Capital.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, “Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed,” in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
- We’re in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
- His thoughts on bonds during and after the bust.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:58 – Feds Outlook & Markets
6:41 – Fed Vs Bond Markets
10:46 – Market Thesis Ahead
19:45 – FOMO or Fed Policy
22:56 – After Targets & 2025
26:46 – Feds Response to Bust
33:47 – Trillions & Inflation
42:18 – Hedges & Precious Metals?
46:48 – During/After the Bust
51:27 – End of Bond Markets?
55:00 – Remonetizing Scenarios
57:36 – Preserving Capital
1:04:53 – Commodities & Dollar
1:07:25 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Email: Dhunter31@gmail.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
In this Palisades Gold Radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Robert Smallbone from the Contrarian Capitalist Substack to discuss his concerns about the current state of affairs in the UK, particularly regarding protests, free speech, and political shifts towards left-wing ideologies. They also delve into topics such as energy policies, hate speech legislation, monetary history, and property investment.
Smallbone shares apprehensions over the UK government’s handling of protests and free speech inconsistencies, touching on the complexity of defining offensive content. He emphasizes the significance of planning ahead, using the analogy of food shopping and dinner planning for strategic life decisions, and shares his personal experience living in Mexico.
The conversation then focuses on energy policies and their potential impact on costs, with Smallbone expressing concern over the UK’s reliance on imported energy and the government’s renewable energy focus versus nuclear power for base load energy. He criticizes the halting of oil and gas licenses in Scotland and advocates for nuclear energy as a sustainable solution for achieving energy independence and security.
Smallbone also discusses his frustrations with societal prioritization of eco-friendliness over practicality, using England’s lack of grid infrastructure as an example. He challenges negative perceptions of nuclear power and emphasizes the importance of being well-informed about energy systems and subsidies.
Robert reflects on the significance of understanding monetary history and the potential financial repercussions of current inflationary policies, recalling monetary crises throughout history. He encourages listeners to study financial history and advocates for owning gold, silver, and potentially Bitcoin as a means of protection against potential monetary crises and inflation. The discussion also covers property investment strategies and the importance of buying property at the right time with consideration for interest rates and their impact on real estate investments.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – UK & Crazy Politics
5:32 – Social Media Police
9:43 – Having Backup Plans
14:25 – Energy Policy Nonsense
22:06 – Green Energy Problems
24:16 – Subsidies & Real Costs
28:10 – Monetary History & Cycles
38:24 – Diversification & Property
43:55 – Interest Rates & Cuts
46:14 – Seek Solutions
52:44 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Smallbone expresses concerns over UK protests, free speech inconsistencies, and energy policies.
- He advocates for nuclear energy, financial preparations, and being well-informed about subsidies.
- The importance of monetary history education and gold/silver ownership as a protective measure.
Guest Links:Website: https://contrariancapitalist.substack.com/
Robert Smallbone, an unconventional thinker advocating for liberty and freedom, invites you to visit The Contrarian Capitalist Substack. Through discussions on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and metals, he introduces alternative viewpoints, offering potential solutions to the complexities of life and the world’s chaos. His primary objective is to assist readers in seeking solutions and consider their Plan B strategies effectively.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on recent market events. The primary focus is on the past week’s stock market drawdowns, which started on August 2nd, possibly influenced by the Yen Carry Trade collapse. Despite no clear catalyst at the time, it’s now believed that the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to ease, coupled with Buffett’s Apple share sale and Citibank’s prediction of multiple interest rate cuts, put pressure on banks, leading them to reconsider their stance. The unexpected end to Japan’s yield curve control policy caused a blow-up in the Yen Carry Trade as hedge funds were forced to refinance at higher rates, triggering a wave of selling across various markets.
Tom asks about possible tensions between Federal Reserve chairman and the Treasury’s roles in managing U.S. economic policy. Janet Yellen’s handling of monetary policy during her tenure as Fed Chair is critiqued for misallocating funds, creating a false signal about an economic recession, and potentially leading to inflation and higher stocks.
Vince shares an intriguing story about a Chinese gold trader causing significant damage to bullion banks. This trader, not typically known for gold trading, had been buying large quantities of futures from Western bullion banks over the counter, leading to losses. The conversation delves into the impact of Yellen’s actions on the shape of the yield curve and discusses the sale of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the Biden presidency and its implications.
They explore whether we still need the same level of oil reserves as in the past, considering changing energy policies and difficulties in producing and storing refined products. The conversation touches on China’s growing influence, the importance of ensuring a deflationary crisis for China, discovering new oil and energy sources, and securing global dominance through innovation and geopolitical considerations.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Talk About Markets
13:49 – Easy Money Addiction
22:55 – Fed Vs Yellen & Mandates
30:44 – Yellen & Wrong Signals
38:47 – Gold Trader Story
46:38 – Banks & Positioning
49:22 – SPR & Politics
57:23 – Oil Reserve Needs
1:00:09 – Gold and the Dollar
1:04:40 – Thorium & Oil
1:07:56 – American Innovation?
1:10:20 – BRICS & Japan
1:12:47 – Policy, Energy, & Votes
1:14:50 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The past week’s stock market drawdowns were influenced by the collapse of Yen Carry Trade.
- Despite no clear catalyst at the time, Federal Reserve reluctance to ease led banks to reconsider their stance.
- China’s gold trader caused significant damage to bullion banks due to excessive futures trading over OTC.
Guest Links:
Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisades
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.
In recent years, Mr. Lanci’s insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.
Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund.
From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance.
In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company’s inception.
Mr. Lanci’s thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements. He contributes regularly to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. His expertise has also been showcased at Mondo Visione and NYC Mines & Money conferences. A firm believer in level playing fields for investors, he advocates for transparency and fairness in financial markets.
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics interviews Professor Joel Litman, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist of Valens Research and Altimetry Research. Litman criticizes the financial system’s reliability, questioning media credibility and the effectiveness of modern accounting standards. He believes that while GDP is inadequate as a measure of economic strength due to its tax-based foundation, the US benefits from a lower tax rate and substantial income generation.
Despite his concerns over political spending, Litman trusts there’s a control on deficits and sustained growth, believing in the US economy’s resilience. He reprimands financial media for prioritizing headline numbers over credit research, stating earnings can be misleading due to regulatory capture within the accounting sector. Litman emphasizes considering various economic indicators beyond stock market figures and addresses China’s economic concerns, including its debt crisis and RMB devaluation.
Litman presents a bullish stance on cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange and storage but suggests converting back to dollars for spending or investment. He encourages passive investors to focus on long-term investments in US equities due to their consistent outperformance. The conversation touches upon macroeconomic factors affecting mining industry decisions versus specific mine analysis, emphasizing productivity and worth. Litman discusses potential US election implications and anticipates a thriving US stock market regardless of the outcome. He foresees continuity in economic policies under either Democratic or Republican leadership and significant productivity gains from AI integration within industries over the next ten to thirty years.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:24 – The Bearer of Good News
8:44 – Net Earnings & Accounting
15:45 – Metrics & Complexities
22:06 – Tax Base, GDP, & China
31:14 – Talent Exiting China
38:42 – U.S. Economy Benefits
41:28 – Buffett Selling
47:23 – Misleading Financials
52:07 – Inflation Metrics
55:40 – Dollar & Global Trade
58:30 – China’s Problems & Russia
1:03:44 – BRICS & Latin America
1:07:40 – Dollar Alternatives & Crypto
1:12:04 – Gold Uses & Investors
1:19:29 – Macro Factors & Miners
1:26:22 – Russia/Urkaine & Gold
1:28:16 – Middle East Concerns?
1:30:53 – US Election & Sides
1:36:10 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Litman questioned the relevance of modern accounting standards and criticized financial media for focusing on headline numbers. He stressed the importance of looking beyond GDP for a true economic understanding.
- Litman is bullish on cryptocurrencies but expresses concerns around converting to dollars for spending/investment. He advises long-term investment in US equities due to their outperformance.
- China faces economic challenges, including debt crisis and potential insolvencies, which could lead to job losses and instability. Litman anticipates continuity in US economic policies after the election and sees productivity gains from AI integration.
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joellitman/
Website: https://altimetry.com/
Website: https://www.valens-research.com/
Joel Litman is President and CEO of Valens Research, a global corporate performance and investment research and analytics firm. In the role of Chief Investment Strategist, he advises institutional investors in equities, corporate credit, and macroeconomic strategy. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of COL Financial Group, a leading brokerage firm in Asia (PSE:COL).
Litman has been on CNBC, quoted in Barron’s and Institutional Investor, and interviewed in Forbes.com. He has published in Harvard Business Review, is a top contributor to SeekingAlpha, and co-authored the highly-acclaimed book, DRIVEN: Business Strategy, Human Actions, and the Creation of Wealth.
Litman has taught or guest-lectured at Harvard Business School, U Chicago Booth, Wharton, LBS, SAIF Jiao Tong, and others. He is a Professor at Hult International Business School, an FT and Economist top-ranked international MBA program. He conducts seminars regularly for financial and industry conferences around the world such as CFA and CPA chapters.
Litman is Chair of the UAFRS Advisory Council which is spearheading usage of Uniform Adjusted Financial Reporting Standards aka Uniform Accounting. He helped build Credit Suisse’s HOLT University and the Center for S.E.V. and MBA Concentration at the Driehaus College of Commerce at DePaul University.
Past employment includes Credit Suisse, Diamond Tech Partners (now PwC), Deloitte, and American Express. He is a member of CFA Institute, the global association for investment professionals, and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners. He is a CPA (Certified Public Accountant), received a B.S in Accounting from DePaul University and an MBA/MM from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
Litman’s philanthropy is focused on community development through scholarships, job training programs, and extensive microfinance lending, particularly in the Philippines.
In Part two of our discussion with Mel Mattison we explore the role of the securities entitlements during financial crises. This is a subject brought to light by David Rogers Webb in ‘The Great Taking.’ In times of crisis, corporations implement backup strategies, like plan B for drastic situations where the insolvency of major financial institutions might trigger the verge of collapse for derivatives. In the event a financial entity fails to honor winning bets in derivative markets, creditors can seize securities in brokerage accounts as collateral. This scenario, referred to as ‘The Great Taking,’ elicits concerns over asset confiscation, affecting not only stocks and bonds but also tangible assets like property and vehicles.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) advocates for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). CBDCs preserve the fractional reserve system yet provide benefits such as instantaneous settlement and seamless cross-border transactions. Central banks perceive alternative payment systems like stablecoins as competition due to their existence outside the banking sector.
Russia’s move to distance itself from Western financial institutions and prioritize gold as a reserve asset signifies a break from the US dollar system and a possible resurgence of gold as a monetary metal. Central banks have resumed buying gold after decades of disposal, possibly contributing to an increase in its value. Gold provides advantages over digital assets like Bitcoin due to its untraceability and absence of intermediaries or complex accounting on the blockchain.
Mattison underscores the significance of possessing assets outside the present financial framework with minimal risk. Tangible assets such as real estate and precious metals like gold, silver are favored alternatives for maintaining worth during a dysfunctional system. The speaker expects continued expansion in the stock market’s speculative phase but anticipates instability upon the onset of the crisis. He suggests farmland or open land as a more secure alternative to residential property. Despite his confidence in Trump, he acknowledges that Trump alone cannot remedy the fundamental issues. The political landscape is intriguing with various forces influencing events.
Time Stamp References0:00 – Introduction
0:28 – Securities & Great Taking
7:00 – Bail-In for Banks
9:29 – CBDC Plans & Implementation
14:30 – Russia & Banking System
18:18 – Solutions
22:00 – Crypto & Privacy Attacks
28:05 – Protecting Wealth
33:55 – Optimism & Trump
40:00 – Religious Symbolism
44:23 – Palantir & Peter Thiel
48:48 – Concluding Thoughts
51:37 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
- Concerns around seizing of assets as collateral when a financial entity defaults on derivative bets.
- Central banks consider adopting CBDCs for benefits like instant settlement and seamless cross-border transactions, while viewing stablecoins as competition. The Lummis-Gillibrand Act mandates stablecoin storage at Federal Reserve Depository Institutions for data access.
- Central banks are resuming gold buying and Russia prioritizes it as a reserve asset, contributing to its increased value due to untraceability and absence of intermediaries.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.com/Quoz
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MelMattison1
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/
Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism.
Tom warmly receives Mel Mattison as his latest thought provoking guest. Mel, a seasoned finance professional, boasts a traditional finance background and an unyielding interest in financial history. His proficiency encompasses venture capital-backed firms, major asset managers, and self-study on intriguing topics like the monetary history of the United States and central banks.
Mel’s novel, “Quoz: The Annihilation of the Global Economic Order,” is a financial thriller that delves into intricate themes, such as sovereign debt bubbles, globalist manipulation of institutions like central banks, and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)’s pivotal role.
The BIS, established in 1930 to manage reparations payments between Germany and the Allies, has since transformed into a dominant global financial institution. It assumed critical functions during World War II, mediating transactions between Axis powers and the Allies, and set the stage for the Euro and European Central Bank (ECB).
Despite its substantial power, the BIS maintains a veil of secrecy and enjoys exclusive benefits such as immunity from prosecution. Central bank leaders convene bimonthly at the BIS headquarters in Basel to deliberate monetary policy without disclosing minutes or agendas. The BIS’s involvement in central bank digital currencies, like Project Helvica and Project Jura, remains an enigma due to its lack of transparency.
Mattison explores the Federal Reserve’s coordinated rate cuts with global central banks and ponders the market consequences when discrepancies between central bank actions emerge. He advocates for the significance of comprehending labor market indicators, fiscal stimulus, and inflation’s impact on economic expansion.
Mel raises doubts about the yield curve inversion’s dependability as a recession harbinger due to recent Federal Reserve manipulations and excessive short-term debt issuance. Entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are edging towards insolvency, posing potential repercussions like higher interest rates, increased debt, and inflation around 2027-2028.
Mel deliberates on the potential fallout of a debt market crisis on pension funds and alternative assets, such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin. He anticipates volatility in the equity market during this critical juncture and proposes that an extreme situation could involve the U.S. Treasury revaluing gold against the dollar in an emergency maneuver, drastically altering financial markets.
Time Stamp References0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Mel’s Background
6:35 – BIS Global Role
13:12 – Immunity Vs. Incentives
15:16 – Central Banks & US Rates
21:20 – C.B. Magic Hats
25:55 – Rate Controls & Signals
33:10 – Inversions & Recession
36:08 – Yellen Debt Issuance
40:30 – Entitlement Programs
47:10 – The Entitlement Cliff
50:24 – Blowout Debts & Pensions
54:33 – Treasury Gold
Talking Points From This Episode:
- Mel Mattison discusses BIS’s pivotal role in global finance, its secrecy, and potential impact on digital currencies.
- Mattison raises concerns over yield curve inversion’s reliability as a recession indicator amid Federal Reserve manipulations.
- Mel explores the implications of debt market crises on pension funds and alternative assets. Bitcoin.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.MelMattison.com/Quoz
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MelMattison1
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melmattison/
Mel Mattison is a writer, investor, and financial services veteran. Leveraging over twenty years’ experience in the realm of high finance, he brings real-world authenticity to his fictional narratives. Mel combines this insider knowledge with a critical eye toward the economic forces that shape all our lives. With a knack for deconstructing jargon and making the complex understandable, he sheds light on the sometimes dark and confusing corners of finance. Mel holds an MBA from Duke University and studied creative writing at Loyola University Chicago. His recent novel, Quoz: A Financial Thriller, delivers an epic ride packed with action, intrigue, and a healthy dose of economic realism.
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, from Pento Portfolio Strategies. Pento argues that due to a massive debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, the nation is insolvent. He linked this to the Federal Reserve’s negative real interest rates since 2002, which led to a $7 trillion increase in its balance sheet, tightening bank lending standards, and an inverted yield curve for a record length of time. Pento expresses concerns over credit bubbles, particularly private debt, that have reached alarming levels, but credit spreads remain quiescent.
Pento shares his economic framework, consisting of five sectors based on the rate of change and second derivative of inflation. He emphasizes assessing the economy’s health or distress, asset prices, debt levels, and the yield curve for each sector. Michael believes that when the yield curve normalizes, stocks should be sold as it signals Fed acknowledgement of economic problems and impending earnings plunge.
Michael expresses concern over the Federal Reserve prioritizing banks and Wall Street over the American people, highlighting its failure to address inflation impacting the middle class. He advocates for holding interest rates steady instead of cutting them and warned of a dollar depreciation against other currencies and hard assets like gold during deflation. He suggests overweighting bonds and bond proxies in disinflationary periods and emphasized the importance of gold as a safe haven.
Michael’s model identifies specific sectors as favorable for gold, while suggesting being out of commodities during certain periods. He highlights energy’s importance during growth periods. He criticizes passive investing and advocates active management with a clear framework. Lastly he notes, rising long-term rates and increasing costs could impact the housing market and banking system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:31 – An Insolvent Nation
4:39 – Credit Spreads & Outlook
9:34 – Five Sector Model
11:07 – Yield Curve Inversion
15:08 – Equity Crash @ Cuts?
18:10 – Election & Dollar
23:07 – Model & Sectors
25:26 – Energy & GDP
26:42 – Fall Data Outlook
28:45 – Labor Revisions
30:33 – Good Money Managers
33:04 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Michael Pento believes the U.S. is insolvent due to high debt-to-revenue ratio and persistent deficits, leading to tight lending standards and an inverted yield curve.
- Pento’s economic framework includes five sectors based on inflation rate change, emphasizing sector health, asset prices, debt levels, and yield curves.
- Michael criticizes the Fed for prioritizing banks over people, advocates for gold as a safe haven during deflation, and encourages active management.
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore’s commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim’s sales network.
https://rumble.com/v58yted-kevin-freeman-breaking-down-the-coming-debt-crisis-five-undeniable-truths-a.html?mref=13ry0f&mc=c28tmIn this radio episode, host Tom Bodrovics invites Kevin Freeman to the show. Kevin is a Co-Founder of the NSIC, Host of The Economic War Room, Bestselling Author and Expert on Economic Warfare. Kevin shares his passion for restoring a monetary system based on gold and silver, known as ‘pirate money.’ He argues that historically, societies have recognized gold and silver as money until recently when they began treating them as commodities or investments.
Kevin then delves into economic warfare, explaining it as the use of economic means to undermine adversaries or enemies. He emphasizes its significance in today’s world where economic power is wielded aggressively and sometimes arrogantly by both foreign and domestic enemies. He believes that elites aim to enslave economically through dependency on them.
The conversation then turns to the unsustainability of the debt-based monetary system, which Kevin sees as a form of enslavement due to the constant need to pay off debts. He presents five truths about America’s current situation, starting with its unsustainable debt path. With federal debt at $35 trillion and rapidly growing, the interest alone costs between $1.4 to $1.75 trillion annually, nearly equal to half of all personal income tax receipts in the U.S.
Furthermore, Kevin explains the structure of the U.S. national debt, particularly its short maturities leading to substantial increases in interest payments despite potential lower interest rates. He criticizes both the Trump and Biden administrations for missing opportunities to issue longer-term debt during near-zero rate periods.
Mr. Freeman expresses concerns about the U.S.’s role as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency and its use in economic wars. The potential danger lies in nations forming alternative trading blocks and removing the dollar’s reserve status, which could weaken the U.S. economy significantly. He also discusses the historical precedent of using debt to influence foreign policy and inflation’s disproportionate impact on the poor, leading to wealth disparity and potential social unrest.
The conversation then touches upon the potential weaponization of currencies by governments, specifically central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which offer governments control over how their currency is used. Kevin advocates for the use of gold and silver as legal tender to maintain purchasing power and avoid potential taxation like fiat currency.
Lastly, Kevin discusses concerns about the Great Reset and its potential threat to individual freedoms through debt enslavement. By 2030, the World Economic Forum plans to implement changes such as controlling food through CBDCs and open borders. The speaker encourages asking questions and seeking truth in the age of information, criticizing attempts to suppress opposing perspectives and manipulate science for control.
Kevin concludes by advocating for a pirate money solution involving individuals holding their money in gold and silver at the state level, which cannot be interfered with by federal authorities based on court cases supporting real money. He encourages spreading awareness about the problem and solution.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Pirate Money
3:18 – Economic Warfare
7:40 – Debt Enslavement
11:49 – Debt Unsustainability
13:57 – Bonds & Long Term Debt
16:34 – Borrowing Vs. Printing
17:54 – Debt Servicing & Spending
20:13 – BRICS Vs. the Dollar
24:00 – Dollar Weaponization
28:34 – Inflation & Wealth Gap
33:39 – Fed’s Purpose & Tool
38:19 – Exporting Inflation
43:15 – Inflation & CBDCs
50:50 – Metals Legal Tender?
55:23 – Great Reset Threat
58:38 – Truth & Perspective
1:02:19 – Currency Solutions
1:10:26 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/SecretWeaponUSA
Book: https://piratemoneybook.com
Website: https://economicwarroom.com
Podcast: https://piratemoneyradio.com
Kevin D. Freeman is a Co-Founder of the National Security Investment Consultant Institute (NSIC) and Partner, EWR-Media Holdings, LLC. He is the Host of Economic War Room with Kevin Freeman (BlazeTV), a NY Times bestselling author, and considered one of the world’s leading experts on the issues of Economic Warfare. He holds the CFA designation, and his research has been presented in critical DoD studies. He has briefed FBI, DIA, ONA, SEC, Naval War College, HASC, Naval Postgraduate School, DARPA, IARPA, and a host of government agencies tasked with protecting America as well as members of both the House and Senate and multiple Presidential candidates.
Kevin is a citizen of the Cherokee Nation and serves as Speaker of the Cherokee Community of North Texas; a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy; former Contributing Editor to The Counter Terrorist magazine; Trustee at Oklahoma Wesleyan University; and a member of the Advisory Board of First Liberty Institute. His books include Secret Weapon: How Economic Terrorism took Down the U.S. Stock Market and Why It Could Happen Again (NY Times Bestseller), Game Plan: How to Protect Yourself from the Coming Cyber-Economic Attack (Amazon bestseller), and According to Plan: The Elite’s Secret Plan to Sabotage America (Amazon bestseller).
Tom welcomes a new guest, geologist and newsletter writer Byron King for a discussion on the culture of deception and misdirection in society. Byron, an Ivy League-educated geologist and retired U.S. Navy officer, shares his thoughts on society’s shift from rigor to oblivion due to the loss of clear enemies post-Cold War and the emergence of self-proclaimed elites with skewed realities.
The conversation covers various topics including lawfare, its application against political adversaries, and the expansion of heightened surveillance and arrests. They also discuss the geopolitical conflicts affecting the world, with implications for the US and Canada, and the historical context of the US dollar’s dominance in global trade and its role in inflation.
Byron expresses concern over potential consequences if the US faces a crisis managing these conflicts, which could result in economic instability and further inflation. They disucss the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy on the economy and gold market, as well as the increasing disparity between asset-owning versus non-asset-owning populations.
Byron also explores the undervaluation of mining industries, particularly those producing rare earth elements, due to cultural factors such as reliance on Chinese producers with low costs. Central banks’ increased gold buying, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical events is also discussed. The world will continue to need base metals like high-grade copper which will necessitate the mining of lower-grade ores and increased prices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Reality & Distortions
7:49 – Lawfare & Politics
13:23 – Truth, Media, & Events
21:15 – Honest Money & Living Well
27:24 – The West & Inflation
37:38 – Golden Awareness
42:57 – Fed’s Direction Now
45:30 – Manufacturing & Rural
54:05 – EV Demand & Rare Earths
1:00:06 – Mines & Timelines
1:07:19 – Conference Takeaways
1:14:28 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Society’s shift from rigor to oblivion due to loss of clear enemies and rise of self-appointed elites.
- Increased demand for gold due to global de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts, leading to potential economic instability.
- The undervaluation of mining industries and the importance of investing in reputable companies despite political influences.
Guest Links:Website: https://paradigmpressgroup.com/
Byron King has first-hand expertise and connections in important industries like commodities and defense. He literally goes the extra mile to bring you perspectives you won’t find anywhere else.
His insights have been featured on MSN Money, Marketwatch.com, Fox Business News, CNBC’s Squawk Box, Larry Kudlow, Glenn Beck and PBS’s NewsHour. He has also been published in the Financial Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.
Byron graduated from Harvard University with a degree in geological sciences. He then went to work as a geologist for Gulf Oil Exploration and Production. Next came a tour as a flight officer for the U.S. Navy. At one point, he was an aide to the United States Chief of Naval Operations. After leaving active duty, Byron began practicing law.
In 2002, he started corresponding with the staff of The Daily Reckoning. His work was featured so frequently he was often called an “unpaid contributor.” When he officially joined the staff, he began criss-crossing the globe in search of the world’s best mining investment opportunities.
Even now Byron spends much of his time away from home, checking out remote exploration sites, mines, rigs and plants to bring you a first-hand account of almost every investment opportunity he recommends.
His way of breaking down technical language into everyday English has earned him a lot of fans. And you can count on him to give you the clearest picture of companies that make the world work.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest to the show Chris Macintosh. Chris is the founder of CapitalistExploits and a seasoned hedge fund manager with experience in seven countries. They engage in a discussion revolving around ongoing recalibrations and rotations in capital markets, focusing primarily on the deindustrialization of the West and financialization as significant shifts over the last few decades. Chris underlines the disconnect between Western nations’ massive market caps and their actual production capabilities. He also discusses short-term changes such as the increasing dominance of few companies in the S&P 500, accounting for a substantial percentage of market capitalization, and passive capital flows from Western economies affecting investing, particularly smaller companies.
Chris expands on the potential consequences of a mere 10% rebalance in Western markets, emphasizing instability arising from massive sovereign debts, derivative markets, and potential debt cycle inflation. He highlights the anomaly of passive capital flows toward large cap stocks and the importance of asymmetry in investing for low downside risk with significant upside potential. Chris mentions automation selling during a downturn and seeking contrarian sectors as an alternative investment strategy.
The conversation covers geopolitical risks, including the possibility of ‘great taking’ or conflict, having assets outside the financial system in counter-cyclical, counter-jurisdictional asset classes like food, shelter, agriculture, precious metals, and maintaining a long-term perspective. Chris discusses the importance of education, problem-solving skills, diversification, and taking action to deal with fear. He prefers Latin and South America for living and investing. He advocates for banking in multiple jurisdictions and investing in cash-flowing businesses.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:07 – Economic Overview & Trends
14:30 – Derivatives & Rebalancing
24:14 – A Silent Bull Market
27:59 – Liquidity Analysis
31:30 – Great Taking & Risks
36:05 – Cloudstrike & Russia
39:08 – War & Capital Shifts
42:57 – Politics Stability & Capital
49:07 – Interesting Jurisdictions
54:19 – Banking & Diversification
58:24 – Fear, Volatility & Action
1:04:13 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The West’s massive market caps vs production capabilities create instability due to debt and derivative risks.
- The impact of passive capital flows on investing, with unloved sectors offering potential protection.
- Preparing for a rotation away from overvalued equities and towards undervalued sectors.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/capitalistexp
Website: https://capitalistexploits.at
Raised in Southern Africa, Chris Macintosh has since lived & invested from 7 different countries. After a career at top tier investment banks such as JPM, Lehman, Robert Flemmings and Invesco, Chris became tired of corporate life, and has since built and sold multiple million dollar companies, overseen $35m into venture capital, all the while investing full time, and managing his own and private client wealth.
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Mikkel Thorup for an updated discussion on the increasing trend of moving and investing offshore due to negative developments in Western Countries like Canada and the USA. Mikkel highlights how political statements from leaders and the media could fuel the desire to leave these countries. He underscored the urgency of having a backup plan, given the potential increases in fees and taxes that could make leaving increasingly expensive.
Mikkel expressed concerns over the rising costs of moving overseas and the increasing investment requirements for obtaining residency in some countries. He acknowledged the appeal of countries with attractive taxation, weather, and good economies. Mikkel advocates for individual freedom and the importance of making good decisions for ones families and investments.
He lauded the efforts of the new presidents of El Salvador and Argentina in turning around their economies through libertarian policies, but remains cautious. Mikkel discusses his appreciation for various cultures, economic drivers, food, water, energy independence, and geopolitics when considering countries for expats.
Italy and Ireland are amongst top countries for individuals with ancestry to apply for citizenship or residency due to their relatively straightforward processes. He shared real-life examples of clients obtaining Italian and Irish citizenship through ancestral connections. Mikkel discussed various aspects of international investment and taxation, including the process of withdrawing investments from Canada or the US without triggering capital gains taxes. How one goes about selling shares, relocating, and purchasing property overseas.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:16 – Expat Trends
2:37 – Canada Exit Fees?
5:02 – Moving & Expenses
6:40 – Residency Costs
11:55 – Residency Programs
14:05 – Having a Backup Plan
16:16 – El Salvador & Argentina
22:16 – Attitudes & Lessons
24:28 – Argentina & BRICS
26:40 – Passports & Border Control
30:38 – Panama Residency
33:06 – Mexico Outlook & Economics
37:06 – Western Europe Concerns
40:17 – Passport by Ancestry
43:55 – Citizenship by Invest.
49:00 – Citizenship by Birth
55:10 – Moving Your Investments
58:37 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Conference: https://www.expatmoneysummit.com
Website: https://expatmoney.com
Twitter: https://x.com/ThorupMikkel
Mikkel Thorup, is the CEO and founder of Expat Money, and is a renowned expat consultant for high-net-worth individuals. He specializes in tax mitigation, securing second residencies and citizenships, and constructing diverse foreign investment portfolios. Born as an autodidact, Mikkel dropped out of school at 15 and has since lived and traveled extensively across over 110 countries. He’s the author of several best-selling books on expat living and hosts the Expat Money Show podcast. Mikkel founded the Expat International School of Freedom & Entrepreneurship in 2021, an online learning platform for children. A keynote speaker at many international events, he’s also a philanthropist, serving on various boards and supporting a Ugandan non-profit for teen mothers. Mikkel is a devoted husband and father of two, with a passion for travel.
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich from Peter Grandich and Company for a discussion on current economic risks and market trends. Grandich expresses concern over the markets’ failure to acknowledge major issues. He argues that gold markets show some recognition of these issues, while the stock market remains complacent. With experience through three financial crises, Grandich warns that this situation is more severe due to political division and lack of meaningful solutions from Congress or the Fed. He criticizes the Fed’s role in exacerbating debt through money creation during the pandemic.
Peter discusses societal shifts towards consuming beyond means and their impact on happiness, the stock market, and the economy. He traces these trends to the influence of television and the internet, which have convinced people that they need more money for happiness. They note that some of the happiest people have little or no wealth while some wealthy individuals are unhappy. He criticize politicians’ approach to economics compared to household management, resulting in societal issues like increasing consumer debt and a culture of living beyond it’s means.
Grandich discusses potential risks to the markets, including political instability leading up to the U.S. election and the impact on foreign investors divesting from American securities. He emphasizes gold’s importance as a store of value in the new economic structure and advocates for capital preservation due to perceived market overvaluation. Grandich encourages individuals to build a “financial ark” through self-sufficiency, preparing for potential financial hardships, and diversifying portfolios with stocks, bonds, and gold. He also mentions the junior resource market as an area of potential undervaluation for companies searching for metals and base metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:31 – Markets & Uncertainty
2:12 – Fixing Things & Politics
5:40 – Exponential Debt Crises
8:30 – Mass Media & Marketing
10:57 – Historic Comparisons
13:55 – Fed Perception/Reality
16:58 – Dot Plots & Fed Cuts
19:26 – Political Turmoil Risk
23:59 – BRICS Alliance & Gold
28:20 – Building a Financial Ark
32:19 – Defining Bubbles
35:56 – Anti-Bubble Opportunities
38:52 – Thoughts on Uranium
41:27 – Base Metals & Miners
46:35 – Crash Scenarios & Gold
49:20 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Economic risks include political instability before the U.S. election and market complacency. Gold is seen as a safe store of value.
- Societal shifts towards consuming beyond means impact happiness, debt levels, and stock markets.
- Political division, lack of meaningful solutions from Congress or the Fed exacerbate economic concerns.
Guest Links:Website: https://petergrandich.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterGrandich
Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.
Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. Through Athletes in Action, Grandich assisted with Bible study and chapel services for the New York Giants and New York Yankees from 2002 to 2016.
His autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was first published in 2011 and is now on its fourth printing.
Peter Grandich resides in New Jersey with his wife, Mary, and has one daughter, Tara. In 2015, he turned a three-decade dream into a reality by opening a storefront office in the “Norman Rockwell style” Jersey Shore town of Spring Lake. He then extended that vision by opening a satellite office in Millstone Township in 2019.
Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss the current trends in the gold market. The conversation covers various aspects of the gold market, including the role of the dollar, increased demand for physical gold, particularly in China, and the impact on the COMEX market.
Macleod explains that gold is hitting new highs due to the dollar’s decline rather than an increase in gold prices per se. He attributes this trend to government policies that maintain large budget deficits. A Trump second term is likely to continue weakening the dollar. Chinese households are turning to physical gold as an alternative to stocks and property, leading to increased demand and potential drainage of physical liquidity from the West.
In terms of the COMEX market, Alasdair points out that open interest has significantly increased, particularly due to neutral spread activity and arbitrage. He notes that this market could become more overbought and warns about potential mark-to-mark losses among the swaps, which may lead to further paper demand and a ‘bear squeeze’ on these institutions.
Alasdair discusses the impacts of the Comex, London, and Shanghai exchanges on metals markets. There is a drainage of physical gold from Western markets, particularly London, due to arbitrage opportunities. Chinese banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, and there’s also a resurgence in demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
They discuss the risks associated with credit and the potential for a crisis in the financial system, particularly regarding the clearinghouse and shares. Alasdair advises protecting oneself by holding physical assets like gold and silver and ensuring sufficient supplies during the initial stages of a potential collapse.
Lastly the effects of BRICS alliance is discussed and their plans to back their currencies with physical gold and silver. Although an attempt was made last year, it did not succeed due to opposition from China and India. Russia is expected to bring this issue up during the upcoming BRICS meeting in Astana in October, proposing that 40% of the new trade settlement currency would be backed by gold. Despite doubts about execution, having significant gold reserves and accumulating substantial quantities of gold for years could significantly impact the global economy if successful.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:49 – Gold Market Shifts
3:43 – Gold & Dollar Demand
11:37 – Comex Open Interest
16:25 – Categories at Comex
21:53 – West Vs. East Arbitrage
24:16 – ETF’s & Other Demand
28:32 – Producers & Margins
30:25 – Interest Rates & Bank Risk
37:00 – Trump Economic Implications
40:12 – Political Solution Unlikely
44:26 – G7 Nations & Debt Problems
46:42 – Ownership & Debt Systems
54:20 – BRICS Progression
1:01:54 – Lessons & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold prices are hitting new highs due to the dollar’s decline, leading to increased demand for physical gold, particularly in China.
- The COMEX market is experiencing significant increase in open interest due to neutral spread activity and arbitrage opportunities, potentially leading to overbought conditions and mark-to-mark losses for swaps.
- Gold markets are witnessing a drainage of physical gold from Western markets, primarily London, as well as increased demand from Chinese banks and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
- Russia’s may proposed in the BRICS alliance to back new trade settlement currencies with 40% gold.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinance
Website: https://goldmoney.com
Research: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from EMA2 Equity Management Associates for a discussion on economic trends and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Lepard expresses concerns about the Fed’s potential acceptance of a higher inflation rate due to rising U.S. interest expenses and a large budget deficit. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, is also contemplating rate cuts to support employment levels and government finances amidst ongoing inflation and uncertainty in unemployment data and Gross Domestic Product growth figures. Larry and Tom contemplate potential rate cut timelines, the possibility of a shift in Fed tactics, concerns over financial crises, and the potential impact of political events on the Fed’s decisions before the upcoming election.
The conversation shifts overseas to Japan’s economic situation, with Lepard predicting that gold will reach new all-time highs due to Japan’s reliance on imported oil and its shift towards purchasing oil in yen instead of dollars, potentially leading to a surge in gold demand and higher prices. Larry anticipates a decade-long bull market for gold and silver stocks as they are expected to double or even triple in value within the next 12 to 18 months due to higher metal prices, increased earnings, and potential dividends or stock buybacks.
Larry expresses his investment preferences, focusing on companies that pay dividends or hold precious metals as treasury assets. He also emphasizes the importance of responsible capital management following lessons learned from previous cycles. Despite concerns about mergers and acquisitions for large companies during this period, Larry suggests they might pay higher prices later in the bull market instead of seizing opportunities at low prices now.
Larry discusses his current projects, which include completing a quarterly report and writing a white paper on why sound money is crucial to solving the world’s problems. He proposes making gold, silver, and Bitcoin legal tender, abolishing the Federal Reserve, letting banks fail if they engage in risky practices, and eliminating the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as steps towards progressing towards sounder money.
Time Stamp Reference0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Rate Expectations
3:05 – Employment Factors
5:06 – Something Will Break
11:00 – Recent Political Events
16:35 – Mathematical Certanties
20:14 – Bonds & Long-Term Demand
23:32 – Stock Concentration
26:00 – Crack-Up Boom Bust?
27:35 – Global Problems
30:55 – Wealth Destruction
33:03 – Silver or Gold First?
37:22 – Miners & Valuations
41:05 – Dividends in Gold?
42:53 – Finding Opportunity
46:23 – Mexico & Mining?
49:53 – Germany & Bitcoin Sales
53:15 – Report & Whitepaper
56:52 – Spreading Awareness
1:00:16 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Larry discusses Fed’s potential acceptance of higher inflation due to US interest expenses, budget deficit & Jerome Powell’s rate cuts.
- Lepard predicts a decade-long gold bull market due to Japan’s yen oil purchases, higher prices, increased earnings.
- Larry suggests focusing on dividend companies or precious metals; proposed steps towards sounder money, including making gold legal tender.
Guest Links:Germany Bitcoin Sale: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/germany-sells-off-final-bitcoin-064941448.html
Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, CEO of Monetary Metals, and a PhD economist. In their discussion, they examine the fundamental price of gold and silver which, according to Keith’s Metals model, is currently above market rate. This dynamic price reflects the tension between physical markets and futures markets, with speculators in the latter holding significant leverage that can impact short-term prices. While the accuracy of this model is debated, its indication of prices being significantly above market price suggests a potential upward trend for both gold and silver.
Keith also touched on the philosophical concept of anti-concepts, drawing from Ayn Rand’s ideas about proper concept formation. He used the term ‘money’ as an example of an anti-concept, arguing that defining money as anything other than gold or a promise to pay has led to misunderstandings and mismanagement of monetary systems.
Keith further explored the consequences of long-term trends in debt and falling interest rates. He explained how these trends lead to capital consumption through various means, including negative interest rates in countries like Germany, Netherlands, UK, and Japan, where enterprises that destroy investor capital are incentivized. In the United States, falling interest rates have led to an illusion of returns on investment as one party’s wealth is converted into another’s income. This ‘prodigal economy’ fuels consumption of capital, with Bitcoin and real estate being prime examples.
Additionally, Keith discussed differences between capital consumption, inflation, deflation, and stagflation. He argued that monetary increases can have different causes, leading to varying effects, and defined inflation as the counterfeiting or fraudulent issuance of debt or credit, resulting in inevitable deflation through losses or cram-downs. Lastly Keith explains Monetary Metals approach to making metals useful again to provide returns for companies.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Price Fundamentals
4:55 – Model Inputs & Analysis
11:23 – Profiting Vs. Stealing
16:18 – Anti-Concepts of Money
24:48 – Capital Consumption
32:28 – Inflation & Economists
36:32 – Defining Stagflation
40:01 – Drunk Monetary Policy
45:55 – Incentives & Solutions
49:56 – Incentivising Capital
54:34 – Providing Capital & Yields
57:27 – Counterparty Risk?
1:00:18 – Making Metals Useful
1:03:27 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold and silver prices may be undervalued according to Monetary Metals model, indicating an upward trend.
- Money defined as gold or promise to pay is crucial to avoid misunderstandings in monetary systems.
- Long-term debt and falling interest rates lead to capital consumption with unintended consequences.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden, co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, about the current economic condition referred to as ‘macro purgatory.’ Brigden warns of an impending recession following a tightening cycle, with only an 8-10% chance of a soft landing. He underlines the significance of employment data, specifically unemployment rates, which can precede a recession and could result in significant rises, potentially causing bond markets to rally while equities weaken. The Fed’s failure to meet its stated goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen have counteracted their efforts.
Brigden discusses his perspective on inflation trajectory over the last few years and identifies significant factors such as the breakdown of globalization, a resurgence of the cold war, demographic changes, and the impact of COVID-19. He explains that goods inflation is at its second lowest level in 65 years, while core services remain high. If core service inflation does not decrease significantly, it could indicate weakening wages and lead to recessionary signals despite falling inflation rates.
The challenges faced by the Fed in making monetary policy decisions due to lagging and imperfect metrics like employment data, GDP, and CPI are also discussed. Julian expresses optimism about precious metals as a potential investment during this economic period.
Brigden shares his perspective on investment strategy shifts towards precious metals, emphasizing the significance of recognizing market weakness and the Fed’s response. Julian also mentions the historical trend of investors being fully invested during strong markets, leading to a lack of liquidity during downturns, and discusses potential impacts on bond yields when the Fed inevitably intervenes. Additionally, he touches upon geopolitical risks such as uncertainty surrounding the next U.S. presidency.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Macro Purgatory
5:10 – The Fed Vs. Treasury
7:46 – Goldilock Periods
13:08 – Inflation Calls & Factors
21:30 – Fed & Curbing Labor
25:53 – Lagging Metrics & Politics
34:26 – Markets & Pricing Concerns
41:00 – Metals & Low Liquidity
43:47 – Metals Potential & ETFs
49:13 – Miners & Capital Rotation
53:45 – Risk Vs. Returns & PMs
58:24 – This Time is Different
59:58 – AI Usefulness?
1:01:07 – Fed Cuts & Bonds/Dollar
1:07:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Brigden predicts an impending recession with low chances of soft landing; employment data is crucial.
- His thoughts on what may spark further interest in miners and metals.
- The Fed’s failure to meet goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen counteract efforts.
- Core services inflation could indicate weakening wages, leading to a potential recession despite falling rates.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
Website: https://mi2partners.com/
Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/
Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales.
Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade.
Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team, providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Throughout his career, he has been featured on many big media outlets such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox News Business, Real Vision, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s. Discussing macro research topics that are driving prices in global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
Tom welcomes Dave Bradshaw, a CPA, MBA, author, and business owner, to discuss his recently published book, “No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Decision and the Lasting Impact of Debt.” The conversation revolved around the escalating college costs, questionable value of certain degrees, and the burdensome student loan debts many students now face.
Dave shared insights on how college has evolved from his childhood days, no longer promising a guaranteed path to financial success for numerous graduates. He stressed the significance of families considering the real costs of attending college, including the potential long-term impact of student loans on their children’s future financial wellbeing. They addressed the skewed incentives in the system, such as government involvement in student loans and the absence of price discovery in the market for higher education.
Dave was inspired to write the book after observing a friend’s aspiration to become a veterinarian and the immense financial burden that choice would impose on her. Dave highlights the importance of understanding the split between education costs and interest paid on loans. He advocates for students to weigh their future earning potential against taking on large student loan debts and criticized the lack of transparency surrounding college costs and financial aid.
They question the distortion in the education system due to government intervention in student loan industries, arguing that without price discovery, certain degrees and disciplines were either overvalued or undervalued. They pointed out examples such as nursing and veterinary medicine, where the value proposition was clear versus fields like sociology where the value was less evident.
The book serves as a practical guide for students and parents in making informed decisions about post-secondary education, with a workbook design that encourages self-reflection and dialogue between students and parents. It focuses on helping young people determine their purpose in life, considering what they want to learn, the job they aim for, and why they wish to attend college.
Dave suggests several strategies for alleviating the financial burden of higher education, such as living at home to cut costs in half, scholarships, tuition reimbursement programs from employers, having a job during college, and considering community colleges as an affordable alternative for the first two years.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Debt & College
4:42 – Degrees, Loans, & ‘Aid’
7:06 – Inexperience & Decisions
10:08 – Inspiration for the Book
13:47 – Value Vs Interest Costs
15:47 – Hidden Costs & Understanding
24:05 – Distortions & Regulation
30:32 – Guiding & Finding Purpose
40:12 – Graduating Vs. Defaults
43:14 – Consequences & Examples
48:33 – Hacks & Workarounds
56:40 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- College costs have escalated, questioning its value and burdening students with debt. Families need to consider real costs and long-term impact.
- Government intervention in student loans distorts education market, leading to overvalued or undervalued degrees and policies preventing bankruptcy discharge.
- Strategies for reducing financial burden include living at home, scholarships, employer tuition reimbursement, part-time jobs, and considering community colleges.
Guest Links:No Second Chances: A Family Guide to the College Choice and Lasting Impact of Debt
Amazon Book: https://a.co/d/0fczd0KB
Website: https://www.keepyours.org
David Bradshaw currently serves as the CEO and owner of Cylinder Testing Solutions (CTS), a material testing company with eight US locations, focusing on Non-Destructive Testing for the high-pressure gas industry. He also leads Tensoric, Inc.’s accounting and finance team since 2013.
Since 2007, Bradshaw has consulted small business owners on various aspects including business structure, accounting systems, tax planning, finance, operations, and market opportunities. With a background as a CPA, he spent three years in public accounting before starting his first business. His experience with diverse small businesses led him to various consulting roles. Since 2004, Bradshaw has held multiple positions within companies as controller, operations manager, CFO, CEO, and investor. In 2014, he bought out partners from the testing service business.
An outdoors enthusiast, he enjoys snowboarding and backpacking with his wife. His credentials include a CPA license (Colorado, inactive) and degrees in Master in Business Administration, BSBA Management, and BSBA Accounting from the University of Southern Colorado.
Tom once again welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo. Together they explore the significance of recent political events such as Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US presidential debates, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Luongo argues that these seemingly disparate events are interconnected parts of a larger strategic move by various forces within the United States and Europe. He expresses frustration with the media’s attempts to shift focus from crucial issues and calls for accountability from those in power.
Luongo discusses Trump’s mercantilist economic approach, potential political unrest in Europe leading to a sovereign debt crisis, and the complexities of understanding politics through examples like Thomas Massie’s appearance on Tucker Carlson and Julian Assange’s release from prison. Luongo also delves into the historical context behind global powers manipulating gold prices and weakening Russia, with criticism towards figures like Churchill.
Furthermore, there are discussions about the Chevron deference, its implications on power distribution between branches of government, and how Islamic eschatology might influence current political events involving Donald Trump. Luongo encourages listeners to maintain an open mind and seek diverse perspectives while acknowledging the complexities of understanding politics. Lastly he suggests several books like ‘Atlas Shrugged’ by Ayn Rand for gaining insight into these issues. A summary of recommended reading can be found below.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:39 – The Great Debate
6:30 – Orchestrated History
16:40 – Control & Premeditation
27:20 – Pres. Harris & Alternatives
43:18 – Powell & Trump Season 2
47:42 – ECB Cuts Vs. Powell
57:49 – Trump & Inflation
1:01:45 – Chevron Deference
1:08:10 – Impacts & Effects
1:16:18 – Islamic Eschatology
1:28:29 – Assange & Timing
1:32:07 – Mercantilism & Gold
1:45:40 – Recommended Reading
1:53:03 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The various forces manipulating politics through Supreme Court decisions, European elections, US debates, and Fed’s monetary policy.
- Trump’s mercantilist economic approach causing potential crisis and complexity in understanding political events.
- Historical context of power dynamics, gold prices, and Russia: lessons and criticisms.
Articles Mentioned:https://naomiwolf.substack.com/p/investor-george-jarkesy-massive-scotus
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-prime-minister-reveals-why-uks-blob-must-be-destroyed
Faisal’s Interviews:https://rumble.com/v54mx40-biden-trump-israel-and-the-end-of-times-with-tom-luongo-and-buna-capital.html
https://rumble.com/v4z3623-how-it-will-all-end-its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.html
https://x.com/SNewmanPodcast/status/1805179022168744424
Recommended Reading:Bug Jack Barron – Norman Spinrad
Now Wait For Last Year – Philip K. Dick
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep – Philip K. Dick
Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, “I’ve since grown up a lot.”
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company’s business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
To sum up:
“Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along.”
He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.
In short, he says, “I’m a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker.”
Lastly, He states, “I own a few guns.”
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Willem Middelkoop, author of ‘The Big Reset,’ to delve into his insights on the anticipated transformation of the international monetary system and its effects on global finance and investment strategies. Published in 2007, ‘The Big Reset’ garnered considerable attention after the financial crisis in 2008 due to Middelkoop’s beliefs regarding the impending collapse of the dollar system as a result of mounting debt and economic instability. In this conversation, he reflects on how his viewpoint has progressed since ‘The Big Reset’s debut and the emergence of Bretton Woods 3.0 from the eastern world, as well as the shift towards commodity-based currencies.
Middelkoop highlights the importance of gold in the context of evolving reserve currencies and its function as a hedge against currency devaluation. He underscores the significance of comprehending the process rather than fixating on timing when anticipating these financial transitions.
Discussing potential alternatives to the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, Middelkoop acknowledges China’s expanding influence and burgeoning gold reserves. He asserts that the transition will unfold gradually with minimal impact on daily life for western residents but issues a warning of potential harm to Europe in the power struggle between the U.S. and China. Moreover, he voices concerns regarding economic and geopolitical risks, particularly escalating tensions among major world powers that could lead to significant military confrontations.
Middelkoop shares his investment portfolio strategy, dividing it equally among equities, real estate, liquid cash or Bitcoin, physical gold, and silver. He advocates for diversification and caution in response to the inflation of bond and equity valuations. Middelkoop believes that commodity-backed currencies and base metal producers present opportunities for underpriced investments.
Middelkoop also addresses the difficulties faced by the silver mining industry due to jurisdictional risks, low silver prices, and a lack of incentives for exploration.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – The OG Reset Book
8:10 – Hindsight & Timing
13:05 – Pozsar & Dedollarization
17:47 – Gold Vs. Fiat History
20:45 – A New Gold Standard?
23:30 – Global Debasement
29:38 – Dollar Replacements?
33:15 – BRICS ‘Trade’ Currency
36:39 – Hegemony & Conflict Risks
44:02 – Dollar Weaponization
46:08 – Silver & Physical Deficits
48:44 – Central Banks & Silver
53:36 – No New Silver Finds??
56:45 – Jurisdictional Risks
1:00:07 – Portfolio Weighting
1:03:09 – Signposts Ahead?
1:05:33 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Middelkoop emphasizes gold as a hedge against currency devaluation in the context of evolving reserve currencies.
- He highlights China’s expanding influence and growing gold reserves as potential alternatives to the US dollar.
- Middelkoop advocates for diversification in investment portfolio, including commodity-backed currencies and underpriced base metal producers.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.cdfund.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/wmiddelkoop
Reset Book For Free: https://www.cdfund.com/
Amazon Book: https:///tinyurl.com/1aoikj6y
Willem Middelkoop is the founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and also an author. He became a well-known personality through his work as a stock market commentator for the Dutch business television channel RTLZ.
Middelkoop predicted the credit crisis’s onset in his book “Als de dollar valt” (If the dollar falls) in 2007. Subsequent publications were “De permanente oliecrisis” (The permanent oil crisis) – 2008, “Overleef de kredietcrisis” (Surviving the credit crisis) – 2009, “Goud en het geheim van geld” (Gold and the secret of money) – 2012, and The Big Reset – 2013. In total, he sold more than 100,000 copies of his books.
In this thought-provoking episode, Tom Bodrovics invites back the esteemed Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics for an engaging conversation that spans historical political trends, economic repercussions of poorly thought out policies, critiques of politicians, NATO’s relevance, Neocon influence, gold as a hedge against uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
Armstrong asserts the recurring cyclical pendulum swing towards the left throughout history is predictable. He raises alarm over the economically destructive consequences of COVID-19 policies and climate change regulations on European small businesses. Armstrong denounces politicians for their power retention efforts, citing instances such as Biden’s lawsuits against Trump and perceived inconsistencies.
The conversation delves into the perceived threat posed by Trump to those in power, speculation of a potential false flag or war with Russia prior to the elections, low approval ratings for Congress and President Biden, and the administration’s emphasis on other issues. Armstrong maintains that those in power often deceive and judge others based on their own cultural norms and values, leading to misunderstandings and discrimination.
The episode recalls NATO’s inception during the Cold War when it was formed as a response to the Soviet Union’s expansionist ambitions. Martin criticize Western leaders for instigating conflicts and disseminating misinformation. He argues that NATO now primarily functions to propagate war fears and Russian aggression apprehensions.
The discussion also touches upon the possibility of Hillary Clinton’s involvement in the 2024 Presidential election and her past role in Benghazi incidents. Martin reveals that the ambassador involved was an arms dealer providing weapons for Syrian regime change efforts. Gold is explored as a reliable refuge during geopolitical tensions and instability, with historical examples like the Iran hostage crisis and Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan cited.
Furthermore, they delve into the role of digital currencies in international transactions via organizations such as the IMF, potentially replacing the dollar as the dominant currency. Mr. Armstrong suggests America’s fiscal irresponsibility and taxation methods contribute to the decline of physical cash and the shift towards a digital currency system. The upcoming presidential elections and potential civil unrest and political instability are also addressed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Politics Trending Right
6:14 – Establishment Threat
10:52 – US Gov. Approval Numbers
13:27 – Rights Vs. Discrimination
18:46 – Historic Conflicts & Lies
24:16 – Purpose of NATO
30:50 – Diplomacy & The West
32:50 – US Overcommitted Empire
35:07 – Conflict on Four Fronts?
37:50 – The Plan for Biden
41:57 – Collapsing Confidence
44:40 – Swiss Democratic System
50:19 – Manipulating Society
52:47 – Gold Buying & Geopolitics
54:52 – Digital Currencies
1:02:07 – Signposts of Collapse
1:06:15 – Gold During Uncertainty
1:09:38 – China & Global Demographics
1:12:45 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Cyclical political pendulum swings towards the left are predictable throughout history, according to Armstrong, but power retention efforts by politicians cause misunderstandings and discrimination.
- Armstrong criticizes Western leaders for instigating conflicts, disseminating misinformation, and promoting war fears through NATO.
- The true role of gold as wealth preservation during periods of uncertainty.
Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
“In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.”
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler from InvestmentResearchDynamics.com and Mining Stock Journal to explore the precious metals market’s current state, particularly during the summer months. Kranzler anticipates heightened demand in India’s largest buying season despite typical decreased volumes. He addresses gold price manipulation by western central banks and institutions, highlighting the influence of eastern hemisphere markets like Shanghai.
Banks, such as JP Morgan and Citigroup, dominate Comex trading, making substantial profits through short contracts, technical indicators, and sell stops. Central banks reportedly authorize these actions, making price manipulation lucrative. Kranzler remains optimistic about precious metals, predicting higher prices by the end of Q4 or mid-Q3.
Dave shares past experiences in analyzing gold and silver markets by monitoring open interest and positions held by banks and hedge funds. He observes a correlation between net short bank positions and net long hedge fund positions, leading to price rallies or smashes. Reflecting on 2008, he recounts how the financial system’s instability did not result in gold and silver price increases due to manipulation. Current concerns include regional banks and commercial real estate debt, potentially leading to another crisis and further precious metals market suppression.
Well-run mining producers are thriving amidst rising gold and silver spreads versus production costs, acting like monetary printing presses. Junior project development companies face feast or famine situations, with some easily raising funds while others struggle. Institutional investors like Paul Singer and Stanley Druckenmiller invest in larger mining stocks for leverage effects. The speaker predicts a major shift into the mining sector once the stock market experiences a downturn, leading to price increases for gold, silver, and mining stocks by year-end.
The podcast also touches upon the significant impact of Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA (the ‘magnificent seven’) on the stock market. These companies have driven most gains in the S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100. A catalyst, possibly a financial crisis, could trigger capital to shift from these stocks into the mining sector when investors need to liquidate quickly. This occurred in 2008 with Fidelity’s funds investing in junior microcap mining companies due to their size. The speaker encourages precious metals sector investors to remain persistent despite current trends and anticipates price increases by year-end.
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Summer Doldrums?
3:30 – Mr. Slammy at Mkt. Opens
7:10 – Eastern Pricing & Effects
10:00 – Eastern Buying Demand
11:20 – Bank Incentives & Metals
14:54 – Price Predictions
17:32 – Bank Status Now & 2008
24:39 – Low Grade Q.E. Chart
28:29 – Feds ‘Control’ & Markets
32:29 – Buy Now Don’t Pay Later
33:43 – Middle Class Decline?
36:44 – Recession is Here?
39:29 – CPI & Health Insurance
43:52 – Miners & Capital Issues
53:52 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Kranzler anticipates heightened demand during India’s buying season despite decreased volumes and price manipulation by western central banks and institutions.
- Well-run mining producers are thriving amidst rising gold and silver spreads versus production costs, while junior project development companies face challenges.
- Institutional investors invest in larger mining stocks for leverage effects, predicting a major shift into the sector when the stock market experiences a downturn.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
Article: https://brownstone.org/articles/is-the-global-inflationary-depression-already-here/
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the always forthright Chris Irons host of Quoth the Raven podcast host and author of QTR’s Fringe Finance Substack. Irons shares his concerns about the deeply flawed economy, predicting that something substantial must occur for change. The discussion revolves around the mounting debt, potential deflationary depression, and the Federal Reserve’s role in preventing this outcome.
Irons raises apprehensions regarding the US as a declining empire. He points to signs of decay, such as flawed policies, immigration issues, and societal decadence. Irons expresses skepticism towards ongoing conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, believing prolonging war through substantial financial aid is irrational.
Chris vents about political discourse, particularly between politicians Pierre Polivere and Justin Trudeau, and discusses the potential dangers of weaponized justice systems and media demonization. He urges both sides to be mindful of these issues.
Chris and Tom explore the significance of understanding inflation’s impact on purchasing power and propose a visual representation to help people grasp this concept. They emphasize that gold, with its fixed supply, can serve as a safeguard against purchasing power loss. While acknowledging Bitcoin’s potential benefits, they caution about its risks compared to gold.
Finally, Chris shares his approach to maintaining peace of mind and happiness amidst global challenges: detach from negative news sources and focus on personal interests, accepting that one cannot fix all the world’s problems. The conversation ends with a lighthearted taco shop recommendation leading to a heated albeit pointless debate on social media about meat in tacos.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:32 – Trends & Sentiment
3:12 – Endgame & It’s All Broken
9:08 – Black Swan or Grey Rhino
17:34 – War, Ukraine, & Democrats
23:13 – Optimism Vs. Reality
29:00 – Elections & Chaos
38:10 – Questions, No Answers
40:26 – Justice Weaponization
51:00 – Important Visualizations
57:00 – Finding Solutions
1:01:09 – Perspective & Advice
1:09:47 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Chris discusses economic concerns, including a deeply flawed system and potential for significant change due to mounting debt and deflationary depression.
- Irons raises warning signs of a declining US empire: flawed policies, societal decadence, and political instability.
- Importance of detaching from negative news sources and focusing on personal interests for peace of mind amidst global challenges.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Substack + Discount: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=92245385
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media’s ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests.
Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Tom welcomes back Matthew Pipenburg from Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland to discusses the economic climate. Matt emphasizes the importance of understanding historical context and separating facts from biases. He believes that common sense reveals issues in various markets, leading to a potential debt crisis causing inflation and currency destruction. Trust is also eroding, particularly in US Treasuries and the US dollar narrative. He advises preparing for these changes as they’re already happening.
Matt discuss the comparison of current debt levels with those after World War II, acknowledging significant differences: America moving from a creditor to a debtor role. Raising interest rates to combat inflation is less effective when public debt reaches unprecedented levels. Central banks cannot export inflation like they used to, making such actions impossible without causing unpayable interest expenses. Alarming trends in bankruptcies, unemployment, and overvalued markets are evidence of economic instability due to unsustainable debt levels.
Matt also discusses the risks associated with junk bonds, including their inability to refinance at higher interest rates and potential defaults. High yield bonds offer little yield for significant risk. Private credit pools, which hold bad loans, are a major concern due to their lack of transparency and potential value distortion.
Central banks’ shift towards gold as a savings instrument is discussed, with physical gold replacing U.S. Treasuries as a reserve asset. Central banks in the East have been net buyers of gold since 2014. Matt advises individuals to save in gold instead of the US dollar for long-term value preservation. Gold significantly outperforms various assets in relation to U.S. Treasuries, making it an attractive hedge against inflation and debt.
The conversation concludes with Matt emphasizing self-education, forming opinions on the current economic climate, and considering long-term investments in real assets and commodities, particularly physical gold as a hedge against inflation and debt.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Reality, Facts, & Trust
6:10 – Hard Assets & Recency Bias
12:43 – Debt & GDP Risks
18:52 – Bonds & ‘High’ Yields
23:25 – Mark To Market & Risk
28:43 – Market Liquidity & Flow
32:50 – New Currencies & BRICS
42:14 – Dollar Trade & Metrics
48:25 – Perception of Gold
56:38 – Risky Assets & Yields
1:02:25 – Optionality & Speculation
1:06:58 – Miners & Other Plays?
1:12:38 – Equity Risk & Value
1:19:09 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Historical debt levels reveal economic instability; prepare for potential crisis.
- Junk bonds present risks of refinancing and defaults.
- Gold emerges as an excellent savings instrument and hedge against inflation.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/
Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/
Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, “Rigged to Fail”. Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show to discuss de-dollarization and its implications for the US economy. Danielle argues that while concerns over countries moving away from the US dollar system have been ongoing for a long time, the US dollar remains dominant in global transactions due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition. She advises investors to diversify during financial crises instead of doubling down on dollars. The conversation touches upon the Federal Reserve’s actions, with Danielle expressing concerns about potential policy errors regarding inflation and outdated data usage.
Danielle discusses employment statistics, mentioning that hard data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) plays a significant role in revisions to non-farm payrolls and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). She expresses concern over the Fed’s reliance on outdated data and potential late action. The conversation also covers concerns about risks for regional banks, rising bankruptcy rates, and imminent student loan delinquencies.
She also discusses signs of a potential recession, including slowdown in credit card spending, increasing charge offs, and decreasing employment levels. Despite some optimistic predictions, she express skepticism due to the weak economic foundation and the Fed’s role in combatting inflation with varying opinions on its likelihood.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Dedollarization Trends
2:47 – Global Dollar Trade
5:49 – Reserves and Data
8:57 – Fed & Global C.B. Cuts
10:49 – Fed & 2024 Elections
12:55 – Consumer ‘Health’
13:58 – Fed Revisions & Data Lag
19:44 – Bankruptcies & Inflation
23:44 – Problems Not Priced-In
25:27 – Regional Banking Risk
28:47 – Bigger Banks & Losses
32:52 – Credit Card Spending
34:52 – Deep Long Recession?
37:40 – Fed – Hard Landing
38:55 – Inflation Targeting
41:09 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The US dollar’s dominance in global transactions is due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition.
- Investors are advised to diversify during financial crises instead of relying on dollars.
- Concerns over the Fed’s policy errors, outdated data usage, and potential late action in addressing economic issues.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for Verfied Investing. The conversation centers on the significant influence of the top six companies in the S&P and NASDAQ, which make up approximately 33% of these indexes, raising apprehensions for passive or specific investors. Soloway underscores potential risks associated with this overallocation, such as flash crashes or market declines, emphasizing the role of algorithms in exacerbating risk due to their massive investments and swift responses to market shifts.
Soloway also shares his concerns about various economic indicators signaling a weaker economy than suggested by broad indices. He mentions the transportation sector, Airbnb rentals, and commodities like copper and oil as examples of potential weaknesses that could impact consumer spending and tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple. Copper and oil, often viewed as economic health indicators, have shown signs of potential downturns.
Soloway anticipates a return of inflation to 2% once the economy slows down, but warns of a quick rebound when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates aggressively during an economic downturn. He fears this could lead to difficulties for the Fed in rescuing the economy as they have done in the past.
Central banks’ responses to inflation are also discussed, with Soloway suggesting they can impact inflation through interest rates and quantitative tightening measures. The Federal Reserve is challenged to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
Gareth discusses potential consequences of high inflation, such as affecting consumer confidence and leading investors to shift from stocks to bonds. He also touches on rate effects on wealthy individuals and the growing US debt, which could impact future interest rate cuts and the possibility of a financial reset. Gareth believes that significant economic collapse could occur within the next five to ten years, possibly resulting in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) implementation as a solution or band-aid fix for an already fragile economic situation. The conversation also covers challenges the Federal Reserve faces during elections and potential impacts of other central banks’ rate cuts on the US economy. Lastly, Gareth raises concerns about financial institution risks due to asset-liability mismatches and potential massive losses, especially in commercial real estate.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Equity Concentration
1:28 – Flash Crash Risks?
2:27 – Trading Algos & Exits
3:36 – Economy & Weakness
4:14 – Transport ETF Chart
5:09 – Russell 2000 Index
5:45 – AirBnB Chart
7:32 – Copper Chart
9:18 – Crude Oil Chart
10:23 – Inflation Thoughts
12:28 – Rates, Demand, & Credit
14:58 – The Debt End Game
17:52 – The CBDC “Fix”?
19:50 – Fed & 2024 Election Cycle
21:44 – Foreign C.B. Rate Cuts
22:28 – Market Risks & Banks
26:33 – Gold/Silver Outlook
30:18 – Palladium Chart
32:33 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway
Website: https://inthemoneystocks.com/
Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.com
Website: https://verifiedinvestingeducation.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. “Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets,” he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together, and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
Verified Investing was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected. Gareth’s goal was to help average investors beat the best hedge funds and traders on Wall Street by teaching them the methodology and giving them his trades as he took them LIVE!
Since 2007, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has maintained an over 80% success rate on swing trade alerts (verified 300+ trades per year) given to members in Verified Investing Alerts (formally named the Research Center) and a confirmed 94% success rate on day trades in the Live Day Trading Chat Room. He has given lectures at colleges around the United States, been asked to train hedge fund traders in other countries, and taught thousands of investors how to invest and trade profitably, achieving their dreams of financial independence. He lives life to the fullest and puts his heart and soul into teaching his members who come willing to learn the PPT Methodology.
Tom welcomes back Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and commodities trader to discuss the policy dilemmas facing central bankers worldwide and the implications for gold. Central banking challenges, including the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer policy and potential risks for reserve asset holders, particularly those of BRICS countries, are explored.
Michael argues against the adoption of alternative reserve assets like gold or Bitcoin due to their supply inelasticity and potential for sharp price fluctuations. The conversation touches upon geopolitical implications of central banks’ search for alternatives to the US dollar, the challenges posed by illiquid reserve assets, and the inflationary environment. Michael believes we might be experiencing a new inflation trajectory between low inflation and stagflation, with unemployment currently in the middle.
Michael also discusses the dynamics of treasuries versus gold in relation to currency devaluation and central bank interventions. The effectiveness of interventions like those by the Bank of Japan is questioned, suggesting potential selling of reserve assets, including gold, to fund these interventions.
He introduces the concept of the ‘Goldilocks trade’ and its opposite, the ‘anti-Goldilocks trade.’ The Goldilocks trade refers to an economy not too hot or cold, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates without causing inflation. In contrast, the anti-Goldilocks trade is characterized by stagflationary conditions. Michael expresses concern about the widening wealth divide and pockets of weakness in certain sectors while larger institutions remain unscathed.
Lastly Mr. Kao shares his investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of information asymmetry and understanding underlying capital structures to find true alpha opportunities. He warns against commodity beta pitfalls and encourages listeners to explore different perspectives on investment topics.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:56 – The Battle of the Bads
7:43 – Reserve Assets & Risks
16:24 – US Gold Reserves & Backing
20:10 – Fiscal Dominance & Debt
24:52 – Fed Response & Guidance
26:13 – Four Horseman of Inflation
36:06 – Fed Cuts & Yields
42:08 – Weak Currencies
45:28 – The Goldilocks Trade
50:27 – Alpha Vs Beta Returns
1:00:30 – Identifying Alpha Plays
1:05:47 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Central bankers face challenges with inflation, reserve assets, and geopolitical implications.
- Goldilocks and anti-Goldilocks trades represent contrasting economic conditions neither too hot or cold.
- Why having information asymmetry is crucial for finding true alpha in investments.
Guest Links:Website/Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/about
Twitter: https://twitter.com/@UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.
Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. They explore China’s recent halt in gold buying by the People’s Bank, which is deemed insignificant as ordinary Chinese people are increasingly seeking gold as a secure investment due to real estate crisis and the desire for alternative savings. The conversation revolves around potential economic indicators such as Jeff Gunlach’s recession predictor and Rick Rule’s perspective on an inevitable but not immediate recession. Lobo expresses worries about market fragility, investor panic, especially during elections, and possible implications of copper prices.
Despite considering copper an economic indicator with a trailing effect, Lobo remains bullish on it for the long term, though it might change his investment approach if there’s a recession. Lobo observes that silver has behaved more like gold recently, prompting him to reconsider investment strategies and add silver back into consideration. Regarding Mexico, political instability and anti-mining sentiments are increasingly a concern, leading Lobo to reduce his Mexican stock exposure. The discussion also touches upon Argentina’s President Milei, with potential risks of instability or violent events impacting investments, but optimism remains due to Milei’s popularity and reform progress.
Lobo argues that political risk cannot be overlooked in Latin America and advocates for the potential profitability of gold stocks due to their ability to provide significant leverage to the underlying commodity. Additionally, he remains bullish on uranium as a potentially lucrative investment opportunity that has a long-term thesis.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – A New Gold Buyer?
8:38 – Macro Forces & Timing
11:16 – Recession & Unemployment
19:24 – Stock Market Optimism
21:00 – Economy & Dr. Copper
26:50 – Silver Outlook
30:16 – Mexico & Capital Concerns
34:50 – Latin America Trends
43:43 – Mining Stocks Broken?
49:51 – Uranium & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Chinese people seek gold as alternative savings amid real estate crisis, disregarding People’s Bank pause in buying.
- Lobo remains bullish on copper for the long term but may change approach if recession occurs. Silver behavior prompts strategy reconsideration.
- Political instability in Mexico and Argentina raise concerns.
- Gold stocks offer potential profit due to commodity leverage. He remains bullish on uranium long-term.
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Greg Weldon, the publisher of Global Macro Strategy Report and the Gold Guru, for a discussion on the US markets, with a focus on the economy and consumer spending. With over four decades of experience in financial markets and commodity trading, Greg expresses concerns about economic stress despite celebratory employment reports, citing labor market conditions worsening with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates. Consumers are also facing increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies while disposable income decreases and government handouts account for an expanding share.
Greg suggests the economy might already be rolling over, and the Fed would like to see asset prices decrease before declaring victory in inflation, despite the policy rate being higher than current inflation. Commercial real estate is another major concern, with the Fed seeming behind the curve.
Greg shares his perspective that the Fed might be showing a willingness to accept higher general rates of inflation to protect consumers and the economy despite risks of inducing a credit crunch. The discussion touches upon Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s challenges in maintaining an apolitical stance during the divisive US election year and potential social unrest leading to economic negatives. Greg also mentions commercial real estate debt due in the next 12 months, which could lead to bank failures for regional banks holding 80% of that debt.
Greg discusses the implications of a consumer wake-up call in the stock market or another Plaza Accord-like agreement among major global powers as potential catalysts for the U.S. dollar’s next round of debasement. He also mentions natural events, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts that could impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold. Greg encourages being aggressive defensively by shorting the S&P 500 when the time comes and suggests optimism about future performance for platinum and certain mining shares. He believes mining as a whole will benefit from increased enthusiasm towards gold.
Lastly, Mr. Weldon emphasizes the importance of staying adaptive, not being bound by historical prices or market assumptions, researching a good Commodity Trading Advisor, importance of proper risk management, and understanding futures trading.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Heavy Policies & Elections
4:50 – CPI Understated?
6:29 – Consumer Credit Stress
8:57 – Powell & Asset Prices
10:08 – Fed Watching Gold?
12:54 – Fed Inflation Targets
15:20 – Inflation Metrics?
19:26 – Powell & Elections
21:38 – Bank Failure Risks
25:47 – Dollar Risk & C.B Cuts
32:13 – Defensive Plays
34:15 – Dollar/Gold Correlation
37:27 – Stock Markets & Currencies
39:48 – Gold Market Considerations
45:23 – Platinum Thoughts
47:12 – Mining Sector Vs. Metals
50:00 – Concluding Thoughts
51:20 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why the economy may already be rolling over, with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates, despite positive employment reports.
- The Fed might accept higher inflation to protect consumers and the economy, potentially causing a credit crunch.
- Natural events, climate change, geopolitical conflicts, and consumer behavior could significantly impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.weldononline.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVE
Money Podcast: https://twitter.com/money_podcast
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldon
E-Mail: sales@weldononline.com
Greg Weldon is a veteran in the global financial markets industry with over 40 years of experience. He started his career as a floor trader on the COMEX and later worked as a broker for Lehman Brothers and Prudential Securities. He then became a proprietary money manager for hedge funds Moore Capital Management and Commodities Corporation. In 1998, he founded Weldon Financial and has been producing independent research ever since. His clients include top hedge funds, banks, government agencies, and individual investors.
WeldonLIVE, his flagship service, provides a comprehensive market research report, including live commentary. The service covers global economic reports, supply-demand fundamentals, monetary trends, and their impact on stock, bond, currency, and commodity markets. Weldon combines a top-down macro approach with technical analysis to offer a broad view of market trends. He provides market recommendations in sectors such as stock indexes, metals, currencies, fixed-income, energy, and commodities.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Tony Anscombe, ESET Chief Security Evangelist, to discuss cybersecurity in the mining sector. With over three decades in IT and cybersecurity, Anscombe stresses that security fundamentals remain crucial despite technological advancements. He highlights vulnerabilities from remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states. Mining companies face significant risks, including potential for fatalities and financial losses.
A comprehensive cybersecurity framework is necessary, along with advanced technologies like EDR systems. The financial cost of cyber attacks can reach $14 trillion by 2027, affecting industries, including mining. Companies must prioritize cybersecurity and involve third parties to adhere to security policies. Anscombe also touches on the ethical implications and potential international collaboration in AI development.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – Tony’s Background
2:03 – Industrial Security
6:47 – Potential Risks
10:37 – Attack Vectors
12:32 – 3rd Party Liability
14:30 – AI & Cyber Security
17:30 – Practical Solutions
19:50 – Capable People
20:58 – Global Impacts & Costs
24:16 – Reporting & Regulations
27:02 – Technical Glitches?
30:04 – AI Risks & Benefits
33:57 – Restricting AI?
36:19 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Mining companies face significant cybersecurity risks due to remote locations, outdated technology, third parties, and activists/nation states.
- A comprehensive cybersecurity framework and advanced technologies like EDR systems are necessary to mitigate mining sector risks.
- The financial cost of cyber attacks can exceed $14 trillion by 2027, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing cybersecurity for all industries.
Guest Linkshttps://www.welivesecurity.com/en/
https://twitter.com/TonyAtESET
Tony Anscombe is Chief Security Evangelist for ESET. With over 20 years of security industry experience, Anscombe is an established author, blogger and speaker on the current threat landscape, security technologies and products, data protection, privacy and trust, and Internet safety. His speaking portfolio includes industry conferences RSA, Black Hat, VB, CTIA, MEF, Gartner Risk and Security Summit and the Child Internet Safety Summit (CIS). He is regularly quoted in cybersecurity, technology and business media, including BBC, Dark Reading, the Guardian, the New York Times and USA Today, with broadcast appearances on Bloomberg, BBC, CTV, KRON and CBS. Anscombe is a current board member of the NCSA and FOSI. Tony is based in the USA and represents ESET globally.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back mining executive and metals analyst David Jensen. Together they revisit concerns around the London gold market’s dominance, estimated to account for 91-92% of the global gold trade. This is thanks to the Bank of England’s ‘regulatory oversight’ since 1986, permitting unallocated gold contracts instead of physical bars. The market trades $500 billion of gold daily and 200 million ounces of silver. However, only around 3.5% of London’s vaulted gold is actual physical. They contrast the LBMA with the Shanghai gold market and point out the key differences.
David argues that the London market functions as a price-setting mechanism rather than one of price discovery. They discuss Gibson’s paradox, where interest rates follow price levels rather than inflation rate. Central banks benefit from this control scheme due to their control over monetary policy and debt levels using gold and silver as loose policy indicators.
David delves deeper into the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which regulates through a voluntary code of conduct called NIPPS which is under Bank of England oversight. The metals market are dominated in London, with around 90% global cash trading occurring there.
David raises concerns over the transparency and authenticity of silver holdings in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), questioning claims against metal, sub-custodians, potential rehypothecation or selling. The actual amount of silver held and its implications for interest rates and the economy if pricing proves fictitious are discussed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:12 – Size of London Market
7:07 – Paper Claims on Metals
8:45 – Silver a Virtual Asset?
9:50 – Opaque Market & Claims
14:44 – Fractional Reserve Metals?
15:57 – LBMA ‘Code of Conduct’
20:54 – Who Watches the Watchers
22:09 – Settlement Definition
24:29 – London Vs. New York
25:35 – Futures & Cash Markets
30:20 – ETFs & Bullion Banks
33:08 – Honesty & Transparency?
38:13 – Criticality Theory
41:10 – Scales & Incentives
42:18 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- London gold market dominates, allowing unallocated contracts. Central banks benefit from opacity, influencing monetary policy.
- Questions about physical holdings vs. claims in London’s vaults impacting interest rates and the economy.
- Transparency concerns regarding ETF silver holdings, potential rehypothecation or selling of metal claims.
Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/
Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensen
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/
Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Lee, a seasoned CFA with two decades in the mining industry, to discuss economic trends and his predictions since their last conversation in September 2022. Reflecting on past discussions, they touch upon various topics including the irrationality of silver markets, U.S. dollar’s rise, and the surprising impact of geopolitics on commodities like oil.
John shares his perspective on current economic issues such as persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and an inverted yield curve. He admits some errors in earlier predictions but maintains a thoughtful analysis of macroeconomic trends. John believes that large financial institutions and tech companies have significant influence on markets and are not swayed by interest rate hikes in the same way as ordinary investors.
John discusses the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential motivations behind its actions, questioning whether its primary goal is to control inflation or facilitate asset accumulation for the powerful elite. He also delves into the impact of demographics on commodities and the economy. Despite less consumer demand due to underreported population numbers in some countries like China, John remains bullish on investment demand for metals like gold.
John shares his concerns about the upcoming election and its potential market impact, believing that central banks and cartels have more control over market movements than politicians. He also advises preparing for an exit strategy with diversified assets in various currencies, metals, and geographic regions. John encourages listeners to explore his work on Twitter under the username ‘John Lee Silver Elephant’ for insights on gold, silver, and interest rates. Currently, he recommends waiting for further dollar weakness before making significant purchases of these metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introductions
0:40 – Changes & Surprises
6:02 – Rate Hikes & No Crash?
12:12 – Thoughts on the Fed
15:53 – Yield Curve Inversion
20:52 – The Dollar & Cent. Banks
23:45 – Demographics & Commodities
29:16 – China & Economic Reporting
33:26 – Silver/Gold Ratio & Uses
38:10 – Golds Role & Public
47:27 – Election Uncertainties
50:42 – Conflict Risks & Fragility
58:46 – Diversification & Plan B
1:05:38 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Central banks and large entities manipulate markets, minimizing impact of interest rate hikes on ordinary investors.
- How demographics and geopolitical factors can influence commodity demand and prices.
- Why gold remains a valuable long-term investment due to increasing central bank concerns and potential digital currency adoption.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/johnlee25893955
Website: https://www.silverelef.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lee-baa93422/
John Lee, CFA, is CEO and President of Silver Elephant Mining. Mr. Lee specializes in mining M&A and has raised over $150 million through the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange for junior companies since 2009. Lee identified, negotiated and financed Lynn Lake nickel acquisition in 2009, Ulaan Ovoo coal in 2010, Wellgreen nickel-pgm in 2011, Shakespeare nickel-pgm in 2012, Pulacayo silver in 2015, Gibellini vanadium in 2017, Bisoni vanadium in 2020, and Minago nickel-pgm in 2021. Mr. Lee is a CFA charterholder and graduated from Rice University with bachelor’s degrees in Economics and in Engineering (honor).
In this engaging interview, Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. Throughout their discussion, Rick underscores the significance of patience, persistence, and the power of people when it comes to thriving in equities. He also champions Warren Buffett’s concept of compounding as a vital principle for long-term prosperity.
Rick shares his belief that individuals should prioritize self-reliance over reliance on the political system. He cautions against jumping to hasty conclusions based on market narratives. In terms of economic forecasts, Rick expresses concerns about imminent recessions in both the US and globally, advocating that individuals maintain liquidity and top-tier portfolios to navigate market dips.
Rick further discusses Warren Buffett’s investment philosophies, emphasizing the importance of concentrating on industries in which one is knowledgeable.
Rick believes that gold could outperform various other asset classes due to its present insignificant market presence, coupled with Europe potentially distancing itself from the US. He posits that while the US dollar will continue as a reserve currency, it may face challenges from the developing multi-polar world.
Rick believes government will generally choose various covert methods of confiscating wealth from the population instead of direct overt action. Methods like inflating the money supply and taxation are far more likely than direct metals confiscation.
Rick also voices concerns regarding the banking system’s stability given unrealized losses totaling $517 billion and looming debt maturities. He raises issues of insolvency for lenders due to a disparity between long-term assets and overnight liabilities, as well as commercial real estate portfolios. Rick encourages having some bullion as non-correlated cash offering options during tumultuous markets.
Lastly, Rick shares his insights on the Canadian and US banking systems, appreciating Canada’s banks for higher profitability for shareholders but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. The US market, however, offers a broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. Rick also highlights his efforts in establishing Battle Bank and the necessity of earning interest on savings.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Lessons Learned
7:54 – Elections & Investors
10:18 – Education & Blaming Society
12:24 – Recession Probabilities
15:23 – New Paradigms & Understanding
22:16 – The World & Gold
23:50 – Multi-Polar Outlook
26:36 – Covert or Overt Confiscation
29:14 – State of the Uranium Cycle
32:45 – FDIC & Lender Insolvency
35:25 – Commercial Real Estate
37:49 – What You Want in a Bank?
39:25 – Savings, CPI, & Hedonics
41:46 – U.S. Vs. Canadian Banks
44:00 – Return Free Risk
47:24 – Living Standards & Needs
50:34 – Developed Demographics
52:26 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Rick Rule emphasizes patience, persistence, self-reliance, and knowledge for success in equities, with a focus on Warren Buffett’s compounding principle for long-term prosperity. He also expresses concerns about imminent recessions and advocates maintaining liquidity and top-tier portfolios.
- Rule believes in the potential of gold as an asset class due to its insignificant market presence and Europe distancing from the US, while warning about government covert methods of wealth confiscation and instability in the banking system. He encourages having some bullion during market dips.
- Rick values Canada’s banks for higher profitability but less favorable conditions for borrowers due to minimal competition. In contrast, he highlights the US market’s broader selection of financial institutions catering to various clientele as both lenders and borrowers. He also discusses his efforts in establishing Battle Bank.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realinvestmentmedia
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia
Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com
Bootcamp 2024: https://hopin.com/events/rick-rule-s-winter-investors-bootcamp/registration
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited Funds, who shares his insights on how to evaluate skills from luck in investment outcomes. The discussion also touched upon the current state of inflation in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US. Despite recent supply shocks causing higher price growth, wages have matched or surpassed it, resulting in elevated rates exceeding central bank targets.
Elliott also addressed the concerns of central bankers regarding debt and income dynamics, mentioning the risks of negative reinforcing cycles and comparing credit-driven economic expansions to sustainable income-driven ones. The speakers discussed the relationship between government deficits and economic growth, debating whether high levels lead to significant stimulus or a large debt burden.
Regarding labor markets, Bob addressed the rising costs of inflation and the impact on reshoring production in the US. The speakers touched upon de-globalization, parallel supply chains, and shipping costs as causes for price increases and disruptions. The Fed’s current monetary policy stance was discussed, with potential future actions debated due to low unemployment and while inflation is still above target.
Bob questioned the significance of specific labor market numbers and he also touched upon why the US economy avoided a recession despite predictions. In this income-driven environment, Bob discussed the shift from growth to value stocks and the impact on investable assets in sectors with earnings and market consolidation. The supercycle in resource markets was also discussed highlighting investment lags behind demand and potential higher commodity prices contributing to inflation.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Investing Luck Vs. Skill
4:18 – Understanding Biases
6:54 – Evaluating Advisors
10:05 – High Inflation & Rate Cuts
13:06 – Why a 2% CPI Target
16:56 – Time Preference & Demand
20:12 – Types of Economic Expansion
27:39 – Deficits & Growth
30:32 – Inflation Forces
33:52 – Goods Deflation & Supply
37:30 – Reshoring & Labor Costs
40:16 – Shipping & Disruptions
43:24 – Container Ship Costs
45:35 – Fed & Rate Cutting?
48:02 – Labor Data & Noise
50:05 – Global Bond Markets
53:23 – U.S. Resilience?
55:40 – Value Vs. Growth
59:00 – Sectors & Resource Cycles
1:03:52 – Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
- Bob Elliott emphasizes the role of both skills and luck in investment outcomes, suggesting investors focus on evaluating individuals’ ability to make informed decisions rather than solely relying on past successes.
- Central banks are grappling with rising inflation rates exceeding targets due to wage growth matching or surpassing price increases in developed countries like Europe, the UK, and the US.
- Elliott discusses the shift from growth to value stocks amid an income-driven economic environment, highlighting the importance of investing in sectors with earnings and market consolidation.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity.
Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.
Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.
In Part Two with Michael Oliver and Vince Lanci we discuss the growing political and economic uncertainties revolving around the upcoming 2024 election.
Michael highlights the potential chaos and unrest during the election. He suggests that if the stock market broke before the election, the Democratic Party might consider replacing Biden due to their emphasis on market performance. Tom mentions a poll indicating deep-rooted political divisions, with each party believing a win by the opposite would cause lasting harm to the country. This instability, Michael believes, is not being factored into markets and could lead to major shifts for global investors.
The duo expressed concerns about the upcoming election’s impact on markets and society, emphasizing that elections usually bring uncertainty but, due to deep-rooted political divisions in the US, there is a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty. This could result in increased stock market volatility and even a contested election outcome. They mentioned historical examples like the 2008 election, secession attempts, and the role of gold during such times.
They also touch upon potential implications for gold markets if the U.S. election was contested. They emphasize buying dips instead of selling rallies for gold and silver as alternatives to a volatile stock market. They see gold as a competitive alternative when the stock market experiences volatility.
Furthermore, the conversation explored potential crises or geopolitical events that could lead to the suspension of the upcoming election, including manufactured ones. The speakers also touched upon the role of gold as a metric of economic stability and its potential impact on the election. Additionally, they reflected on the changing political landscape, the influence of various parties and foreign conflicts on the election outcome, and the potential consequences for free speech, civil unrest, inflation, monetary policy, and individual freedoms.
Time Stamp References:00:00 – Introduction
00:51 – Fed & Panic Mode
08:40 – 2024 Election Chaos?
13:26 – Argentina & Milei
19:33 – Seceding Successfully?
24:41 – Fed Going Away?
26:04 – Censorship & Free Speech
29:10 – Suspension of Elections?
31:18 – Geopolitical Black Swans
37:03 – The Uni-Party & RFK
39:56 – Metals & Signposts
40:33 – Volatility & Buy The Dips
42:17 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The upcoming 2024 U.S. election is causing significant political and economic uncertainty which the markets have not priced in.
- Deep-rooted political divisions indicate a higher risk of prolonged uncertainty, increasing stock market volatility and potential for a market correction
- Gold could serve as an alternative investment during such volatile stock markets and potential black swan like events.
Vince Lanci – Guest Links
Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisades
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay’s predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS’s parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Michael Oliver – Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
In this Palisades podcast episode, Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis and Vince Lanci, publisher of the Goldfix Substack. The discussion covers various markets – metals, equity indexes, commodities – and in part two, the upcoming election.
Michael Oliver initiates the conversation by analyzing the NASDAQ’s remarkable growth since the 2009 Bear Low and its significance as a leading index due to its substantial percentage gain. He attributes this influx of funds to the M2 chart or Fed funds rate chart, directing investment into the stock market at that time. Michael then pivots towards the current market situation, sharing his view on momentum analysis and the election’s potential impact, emphasizing the importance of examining trends beyond just price. He points to a major sell signal in January 2022, causing a steep decline followed by recovery.
Vince Lanci contributes by addressing the narrowing breadth in the stock market. He stresses that leadership changes are vital for overall market health and believes there’s currently no breadth, limiting options if AI leadership falters. Vince explains how the stock indexes have shrunk from a broader group to key players.
The discussion also touches on copper and natural gas commodities before focusing on precious metals. Michael highlights the deceptive nature of the acceleration phase in a bull market and the significance of understanding trends and structures rather than relying solely on popular indicators like RSI or MACD.
They further delve into investment strategies based on silver market analysis and historical trends, sharing personal experiences and anticipating precious metals market movements due to geopolitical tensions and central banks’ actions. Vince also brings a geopolitical perspective, focusing on central banks and sovereign wealth funds buying silver as an international trade collateral store of value.
They explore the potential for a new Bretton Woods and gold’s ability to anticipate economic trends. Vince expects significant precious metals market movements due to the anticipated end of fiat currency and gold’s role in predicting economic shifts, with concern about commercial real estate and stock markets potentially being affected by central banks’ involvement.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:02 – Nasdaq & Momentum
4:58 – Nvidia & Stock Markets?
10:38 – Copper Importance
12:53 – Natural Gas Chart
18:44 – Past Silver Bull Mkts.
24:30 – Momentum & Timeframes
26:38 – Maintaining Perspective
34:09 – Silver Spread Vs. Gold
37:40 – C.B. Gold Buying & BRICS
43:43 – Gold & The End of Fiat
Talking Points From This Episode
- Michael Oliver discusses the NASDAQ’s growth, attributing it to funds shift post-financial crisis, emphasizing importance of understanding market trends beyond just price.
- Vince Lanci highlights narrowing stock market breadth and stresses leadership changes are crucial for overall health and potential risks if it falters.
- They explore investment strategies in precious metals, discussing historical trends, geopolitical tensions, and central banks’ role.
Vince Lanci – Guest LinksSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisades
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay’s predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS’s parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Michael Oliver – Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Francis Hunt, also known as the Market Sniper, for a discussion on the importance of shared experiences, living deliberately beyond the financial world, and the upcoming gold and silver discussion focusing on preserving assets during monetary transition. They emphasize the significance of understanding reality, accepting limitations, and building bonds for amplified experiences. Francis discusses the current economic situation involving debt contraction and the seesaw analogy representing nation states’ debt levels and currencies. Japan’s excessive debt is predicted to cause a currency collapse, leading to significant losses for various assets, including the 30-year treasury.
Francis discusses the reasons for owning physical gold, silver, and land as means to escape both systems and maintain control over possessions. He also discuss the importance of investing in industrial metals like copper as part of an inflation hedge during currency devaluation and suggest investing in commodities while shorting debt and fiat currencies. Francis predicts that gold will reach 2897, and silver may surpass it, in a parabolic phase of financial instability. They also analyze the performance of precious metals like Platinum, which has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance based on historical trends and cross-valuation.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
9:55 – Analyze & Take Action
13:32 – Resiliance & Emotions
17:07 – Debt/Fiat Contraction
19:56 – US 30Y Treasury Chart
25:25 – Own Nothing and Be?
29:23 – System Breaking & Gold
32:30 – Fed & Who Prices Debt
34:00 – Bond Rates & Control
36:05 – Gold/Dollar Chart
43:44 – 30Y Debt Reversion
46:37 – Shrinking Dollar Value
48:00 – Silver Levels & Support
53:30 – Gold/Silver Ratio
59:20 – Copper Chart
1:01:42 – Coffee Chart
1:03:48 – Gaps Down in Bull Runs
1:06:39 – UPS Parcel Chart
1:09:48 – Case For Platinum
1:19:22 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Amidst economic instability, owning physical gold, silver, and land provides control over possessions and escapes debt-based systems.
- Platinum has underperformed since 2009 but could experience overperformance due to historical trends and cross-valuation.
- Invest in commodities like gold, silver, and platinum while shorting debt and fiat currencies during stagflation.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniper
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecryptosniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
In this episode of Palisades, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back metals analyst David Jensen to discuss the volatile gold and silver markets, with a focus on the London market’s reliance on promissory notes for trading and its potential physical supply issues leading to risks of default. They also touch upon the large trading volumes in London, deficits in the silver market, increasing demand from China, and concerns over retail investors influencing silver prices due to ETF manipulation and rehypothecation.
David shares his perspective on factors affecting the silver market during the 2020-2021 silver squeeze, including inventory disappearance in China, Shanghai exchange’s influence, potential catalysts like central banks buying gold or conflicts, and the City of London’s involvement in a longstanding global gold and silver fraud.
The conversation further explores the impact of various factors on gold and silver markets, including concerns about transparency regarding lease rates, central bank sourcing of metal, and potential consequences for major banks if they cannot cover contract losses. Overall, Jensen emphasizes the importance of understanding the significance of physical supply issues in the metals market and staying informed to avoid ignoring important matters.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Re-hypothecation & London
7:17 – Bullion Banks & Physical
13:20 – Paper Ponzi?
15:08 – ETF Drawdowns & Supply
17:23 – Jeff Currie Comments
19:00 – Bullion & China Influence
23:17 – News Driven Catalysts
26:30 – Money Supply & Bank Buying
29:15 – Demand Picture & Drawdowns
30:35 – C.B. Metal Sourcing?
32:22 – Debt & The Silver Lynchpin
39:12 – Media & Reaching People
41:08 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- David discusses volatile gold and silver prices due to physical supply issues in the London market.
- Jensen warns of potential risk of default from reliance on promissory notes in London gold and silver trading.
- He highlights significant deficits and dwindling inventories in the silver market, which will eventually cause a crisis.
Guest Links:Substack: https://JensenDavid.substack.com/
Gab: https://gab.com/DavidJensen
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/j_stars/
Jeff Currie Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESxpDsUmQRE
David Jensen, P.Eng., LL.B., MBA, is a Professional Engineer with a degree in Engineering from the University of Waterloo in Canada. He worked through 1993 on the F-5 Fighter Overhaul program and the Bombardier Regional Jet programs. Mr. Jensen then graduated with an LL.B. degree in corporate and commercial law from the University of Calgary and an MBA from Univ. of B.C., majoring in Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
Returning first to aviation, then, after reading Austrian School Economics, Mr. Jensen transitioned to the mining industry in 2004. First through his mining industry consultancy, then as Vice President of Corporate Development for Western Copper Corp., and most recently as President and COO of Skyline Gold.
Mr. Jensen currently serves as President and COO of a private mining company and provides strategic, operational, risk assessment, and precious metals consulting services through his consultancy, Jensen Strategic.
In this Palisades interview, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back hosts global forecaster David Murin to delve into the differences between lateral and linear thinking in the context of current world conflicts. Murin posits that empires cycle through phases of thinking, with laterals leading initially and linears taking control as empires mature. He attributes the current global climate to an unprecedented level of linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing over the past two decades, which has left societies inflexible to dynamic threats.
Murin further discusses geopolitical implications, particularly regarding the Houthis’ actions in the Red Sea and its significance for American maritime hegemony. He raises concerns about China’s involvement and advanced military capabilities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining control over critical sea lanes for wealth and resource extraction.
Murin believes historical cycles of war could have been avoided with greater awareness and full-spectrum deterrence, aligning with the 112-year contractive cycle that has led to hegemonic conflicts throughout history.
David also shares his views on China’s strategic intentions and resource acquisitions, arguing that China is not primarily concerned with wartime resource gathering but rather denying resources to the West. He points to Argentina as an example where Chinese interests were rejected, giving the West a foothold in the region. Murin suggests Western engagement and political activism are necessary for regime change in countries with autocratic regimes.
He uses numerous price-based systems to understand various markets and sectors, predicting a decline in bond prices and increased inflation for commodities due to excess demand from fiat money. David sees the current situation as a commodity supercycle that affects the entire commodities complex and causes inflation for all physical resources. War contributes to inflation during these cycles. Murin warns of impending wars, emphasizing the importance of adapting and strong leadership in response to threats.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:02 – Types of Thinking
6:20 – Shipping & Shrinking Empire
12:40 – Inevitable Conflict?
16:07 – China Growth & Cycles
20:37 – The Art of War
24:12 – BRICS & China
26:33 – Fentanyl Problem
28:10 – Results of Energy Tariffs
31:33 – Inflation & Central Banks
36:48 – Models & Mkt. Behavior
38:32 – Bond Markets & Gold
42:40 – War & Inflation
43:53 – Important Developments
46:00 – War is Upon Us
49:01 – U.S. Navy & Defense
52:30 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Empires cycle through lateral and linear thinking phases, with current global climate characterized by unprecedented linear thinking due to sophisticated money printing.
- Geopolitical implications include challenges to American maritime hegemony in the Red Sea and China’s potential denial of resources to the West.
- Historical cycles indicate ongoing hegemonic conflicts and the importance of full-spectrum deterrence, with impending wars requiring quick adaptation and strong leadership.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
Tom welcomes back Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Founder at Invictus Research to the show. Mike explains his views on the business cycle, current economic trends, and their impact on asset classes like stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Mike explains that Invictus defines the business cycle as having three sub-cycles: real growth, inflation, and monetary policy. They believe these cycles drive price action across various assets. The US economy is currently reflating, indicating faster real growth and inflation. Despite inflationary pressures, federal deficits are expected to fuel manufacturing growth due to initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act.
Mike argues that investors can benefit from an inflationary cycle as it leads to potential growth in earnings. However, consumers may face challenges with rising prices, affecting their quality of life and ability to deploy capital into markets. Mike believes that for a clearer understanding of inflation, one should look at commodity prices rather than Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Mike also discusses the significance of copper miners’ performance as an indicator of real economic acceleration. He suggests considering ownership of productive assets and taking on more cyclical risk when copper miners outperform copper. Oil, as an energy input, follows this trend, with demand increasing during economic expansion. Despite a recent downturn, it is viewed as a buying opportunity.
The US dollar’s relationship with economic data, interest rates, and the Fed is also discussed. While the U.S. economy is outperforming other developed markets, the dollar could strengthen based on interest rate parity. However, its weakening against emerging market currencies due to their improved economic conditions is generally bullish for reflationary assets like commodities and risky investments. Invictus has launched a new mobile app with an AI-enabled chatbot providing retail investors with access to research analysis.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – Three Economic Cycles
4:43 – Housing Sector Health
7:08 – Consumer Spending & Deficits
16:33 – CPI Metrics & Adjustments
18:02 – Income, Wages, & Demand
20:14 – Fed, CPI, Yields, Cuts
26:05 – Commodity Demand
30:46 – Metal Prices Vs. Miners
32:10 – Oil Market Outlook
35:23 – Strategies with Miners
38:36 – Positioning & Cash
40:10 – Investors Vs. Consumers
41:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- How the business cycle’s sub-cycles (real growth, inflation, monetary policy) influence asset price action.
- Copper miners’ outperformance signals real economic acceleration; consider productive assets and cyclical risk.
- A stronger US dollar based on interest rate parity could benefit reflationary assets like commodities.
Guest Links:Website: https://invictus-research.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro
Michael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.
Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the anlysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That’s why he became involved at Invictus.
Tom welcomes economist John Williams, the founder of Shadow Government Statistics to the show. Williams shares his background in economics and economic modeling, which led him to scrutinize government statistics due to their potential inaccuracies. He became particularly concerned with employment data revisions and manipulation. Despite improvements, he remains skeptical about inconsistencies’ impact on forecasting accuracy.
Williams discusses the misrepresentation of inflation through changes in reporting methodologies, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This underreporting of inflation affects cost-of-living adjustments and pension payouts, leaving retirees facing significant financial challenges. The pandemic exacerbated these issues with distorted CPI reporting.
He also criticizes the current economic situation’s representation through GDP growth rates, which may not accurately represent underlying economic conditions. Inflation can lead to an increase in reported real GDP without actual sales growth. The excessive money supply injected into the economy during the pandemic is another major contributor to inflation.
Despite attempts to control inflation through interest rate hikes, the economy has suffered negative growth in critical sectors like retail sales, industrial production, housing, and employment. The Federal Reserve prioritizes the banking system over the economy, making high interest rates more beneficial for banks than for consumers. The historically large disparity between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) further highlights a weak economy.
John predicts that despite rising GDP, there is a potential worsening in the next six months with underlying economic downturn and potential high or even hyperinflation. He advises holding precious metals like physical gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power during these uncertain times. Gold has been an effective hedge against inflation over the last 40 years, although it can also be manipulated.
Williams believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to intervene with monetary policies despite their inflationary effects. He encourages listeners to visit shadowgovernmentstats.com for more information and to contact him directly at johnwilliams@shadowstatts.com. His website was recently taken down, but the old site remains accessible for background information.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Government statistics, particularly inflation data, can be manipulated and underreported, leading to inaccurate economic representations.
- The Federal Reserve’s priority is keeping the banking system afloat rather than addressing underlying economic issues, causing negative consequences for consumers.
- The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may not accurately represent economic conditions as it can be artificially boosted by inflation and government interventions.
- Precious metals like gold serve as a hedge against inflation and help preserve purchasing power during uncertain economic times.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Background in Business
4:15 – Models Being Redefined
12:08 – Inflation Reporting
17:26 – Releases & Revisions
25:25 – Redefining Everything
33:12 – Inflation Vs. GDP
35:37 – Inflation Causations
37:36 – Money Supply Measures
46:56 – Real Economic Outlook
50:39 – Gold – Inflation Hedge
52:35 – Fed & The Next Crisis
54:53 – Debt to GDP & Rates
59:15 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://shadowstats.com
E-Mail: johnwilliams@shadowstats.com
Walter J. “John” Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the economics of Bitcoin mining, focusing on the lifespan and economic viability of Bitcoin mining hardware. According to St. Angelo, major US Bitcoin miners Marathon and Riot account for significant portions of global hash rate production, with Bitcoin mining consuming approximately 1-2% of US electricity. However, Bitcoin miners’ hardware depreciates rapidly; while they last five years, they become almost obsolete in two years, producing only around 90% of their total Bitcoin output by that time.
St. Angelo discusses the implications of this rapid depreciation on sustainability and profitability, raising concerns about underreported depreciation costs, which can mislead investors. To fund the capital expenditure required to replace these miners, companies issue large amounts of shares, leading to significant dilution for existing shareholders.
The conversation also touches on the potential use of stranded energy for Bitcoin mining but expresses concerns about its scarcity as energy demand grows. St. Angelo compares this to the gold mining industry, where inflation caused by government actions impacts production costs. He argues that the high depreciation rate and underreporting of these costs in the Bitcoin mining industry could lead to significant financial challenges.
Marathon and Riot’s claims about not needing to issue further shares for growth remain uncertain. Steve expresses concerns regarding Bitcoin’s energy consumption compared to gold mining and its unsustainability due to the need for continuous miner replacement. Despite his criticism of Bitcoin, he acknowledges that some investors are avid supporters. He emphasizes physical metals like gold as a higher quality collateral due to their durability and lack of ongoing energy consumption.
Additionally, Steve discusses trends in Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and outflows between Western countries and Asia, particularly China. While there have been significant net outflows from Western Gold ETFs for several years, Eastern countries like China have experienced substantial increases in their Gold ETFs due to central banks’ large-scale gold purchases. The West’s potential shift towards real assets like gold is suggested, given the risks associated with US Treasuries and money market accounts. However, acquiring gold with potentially devalued dollars presents a challenge for Western investors.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Steve discusses Bitcoin mining’s rapid hardware depreciation, its impact on profitability, and sustainability concerns.
- Marathon and Riot’s Bitcoin mining operations face significant underreported depreciation costs.
- Gold ETF trends: Eastern countries’ surge in gold purchases versus Western net outflows.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Economics of BTC Mining?
4:10 – Mining Economics & Charts
13:30 – Hash Rates & New Hardware
17:07 – Share Dilution Solutions
19:34 – Underperformance & CAP-Ex
25:30 – All-In Costs & Mining
27:56 – Electricity Consumption
30:40 – End to End Depreciation
37:17 – Bitcoin Value & Time
38:35 – Comparing Mining Industries
41:37 – Gold Mining Total Costs
44:08 – Bitcoin Vs. Gold
48:30 – Chinese Gold ETF Flows
53:10 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI “Energy Returned On Invested” stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, PMBull, Deviantinvestor, PMBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.
In this engaging episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics welcomes Dave Bradley, a pioneering figure in the Bitcoin world. Known as Canada’s strongest and best-looking Bitcoin entrepreneur, Dave is the founder of the first Bitcoin store, co-founder of Bull Bitcoin, and a board member of Bitcoin Well.
They explore the intersection of gold and Bitcoin against the backdrop of growing awareness regarding monetary debasement and the rise of freedom movement communities.
Dave emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between money and investments, considering gold as a store of value rather than money. Many investments have taken on characteristics of money due to debasement and muddling risk-adjusted returns. He shares concerns over increased risk tolerance among individuals due to rampant central bank money printing.
The conversation delves into the emergence of alternative cryptocurrencies, which Dave views as companies competing with a protocol rather than contenders to Bitcoin’s decentralized form of money. Despite over 10,000 altcoins, most have failed to capture significant value or market cap. Dave shares his personal journey of discovering Bitcoin in 2010 and the missed opportunities that came with it, including regretful sales in the early days.
The discussion covers Bitcoin’s potential as a form of money, surpassing gold in terms of divisibility, ease of verification, and digital nature that makes it more practical for transactions. Dave notes that Bitcoin has a role to play during times of censorship. In the future role Bitcoins role will likely to continue to strengthen as traditional monetary policies falter. Dave concludes by inviting listeners to attend the Bitcoin Rodeo conference for valuable insights on real-world applications of Bitcoin.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introductions
0:40 – Freedom Groups & Sound Money
3:34 – Money Vs. Investments
5:30 – Exchange Risks & Fraud
10:47 – Alt Coins & DeFi
12:14 – His Bitcoin Background
16:17 – Lessons Learned
18:40 – The Unbalanced Portfolio
21:28 – Property Rights Erosion
22:42 – Bitcoin Vs. Gold
29:00 – Store of Value Vs Use
31:18 – A Permissionless System
32:45 – Grassroots Markets
34:45 – Trucker Protest & Gov’t
37:05 – Counterparty Risk
39:58 – Excess Energy & Solutions
44:19 – Bitcoin Mining Business
46:30 – The Future of Bitcoin?
51:25 – ETFS & Paper Promises?
55:05 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Dave views gold as a store of value and Bitcoin more as decentralized money, surpassing gold’s divisibility, ease, and digital nature for transactions.
- Bitcoin serves as backup currency during traditional monetary policy falters; government has limited control over Bitcoin wallets during events like protests.
Guest links:Bitcoin Conference: https://BitcoinRodeo.com
Promo: $71 Off Tickets to the Bitcoin Rodeo. Use Code: “Gold”
Website: https://BitcoinBrains.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitcoinBrains
Dave Bradley is widely known as the Strongest and Best Looking Bitcoin Entrepreneur in Canada. After getting into bitcoin in 2010, Dave founded the world’s first physical bitcoin store in 2013. Dave later went on to co-found the iconic bitcoin company, Bull Bitco
In a not-to-be-missed episode, Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest, Robert Bryce. Robert is an author, journalist, film producer, and public speaker.
Together, they delve into energy issues as Bryce voices his concerns over the fragility of the electric grid and the potential consequences of underestimating the value of a reliable energy supply. He recounts personal experiences with power disruptions and highlights significant contrasts between developed countries’ energy abundance and challenges faced in places like South Africa and Beirut. The discussion centers on the 2021 Texas blackout, which shed light on renewable energy’s role during the crisis and its limitations when needed most. Bryce underscores the danger of making the electric grid overly reliant on non-base load power. He advocates for recognizing natural gas’s crucial role in securing energy stability during inclement weather. He also criticizes initiatives like Michael Bloomberg’s Beyond Carbon Campaign, as they could potentially worsen the grid’s vulnerability and threaten national energy security.
Robert raises concerns about inaccurate information and analysis regarding the energy landscape, specifically concerning hydrogen being misrepresented as a renewable resource by certain media outlets. He laments the negative impact of these misleading narratives on public understanding and decision-making processes. They also discuss challenges of the hydrogen fuel cycle and why it’s more of a transportation carrier system than an energy source.
Robert discusses how modern energy policy is regressive in nature and its outsized impact on poverty and the wealth gap. He argues that these policies, including those related to climate change and electric vehicles, increase electricity costs disproportionately for low-income and middle-class households despite Democrats’ advocacy for the public’s welfare. Robert believes that energy affordability should be a bipartisan concern due to its critical role in the overall economy. He also criticizes the media’s portrayal of the global energy transition, pointing out that developing countries like China and India are not adhering to the same goals as the West, focusing instead on building coal power plants to meet their immediate energy needs.
Robert advocates for pragmatism and a clear-eyed approach to energy production and consumption. He shares his skepticism towards renewable energy’s low power density sources, such as wind and solar, and champions high power density sources like natural gas and nuclear. Robert also criticizes the corporatism surrounding renewable energy development and emphasizes the importance of understanding the realities of energy needs in light of increasing demand from developing countries.
Lastly, they explore the challenges of rapidly transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) from a fossil fuel-based system. Despite promises, EVs are not yet capable of replacing oil as a critical commodity for commerce due to the enormous energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector. The limitations and challenges of batteries, including their energy density, material intensity, and dependence on Chinese supply chains, are discussed. The Biden administration’s energy policies are criticized for making the auto sector dependent on components from overseas while stifling the development of oil and coal-based power sources. Financial losses incurred by EV manufacturers like Ford and Rivian are highlighted, questioning the rationality and pragmatism of current industrial and energy policies.
Robert encourages people to become informed on these topics and to explain the situation to friends and family. It’s important for people to understand the world’s reliance on energy and why it’s crucial to humanity.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Taking Energy for Granted
3:15 – Texas Blackouts – Causes
5:13 – GRID Stability & NatGas
7:03 – Media Accuracy & Bias
11:33 – EROI & Alternatives
14:50 – Fuel Cell Technology
16:03 – Energy Policy & Poverty
19:18 – Energy “Transitions” Charts
22:33 – Germany Coal Use
25:09 – Climate is a Concern
27:18 – Subsidies & Tax Credits
33:44 – EVs and Real Impacts
41:00 – Electric Motorcycles
41:52 – The 10000$ Question
44:47 – Commodities & Debasement
51:45 – Peak Oil Thoughts
55:05 – Efficiencies & Plastic
58:48 – Incentives & Nuclear
1:04:15 – Educate Yourself
1:07:02 – JuiceTheSeries & Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/pwrhungry
Website https://juicetheseries.com
Website: http://powerhungrypodcast.com/
Website: https://robertbryce.substack.com
Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/robertbryce
Robert Bryce is a Texas-based author, journalist, film producer, and podcaster. The host of the Power Hungry Podcast, Bryce has been writing about energy, power, innovation, and politics for more than 30 years. His articles have appeared in a myriad of publications including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Forbes, Time, Austin Chronicle, and Sydney Morning Herald. His sixth book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations, was published in 2020 by PublicAffairs. He is also the producer of a feature-length documentary film: Juice: How Electricity Explains the World, which is available on iTunes, Amazon Prime, and numerous other streaming platforms. He lives in Austin with his wife, Lorin, who is an art teacher, photographer, and master potter.
Tom welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management to discuss the business aspects of the mining industry.
Adrian stresses the importance of understanding a company’s financial situation beyond initial disappointments, using Barrick Gold as an example of a company with a history of optimistic production estimates leading to missed targets but effectively managing these issues. He emphasizes the significance of cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for evaluating mining companies’ profitability and efficiency.
The conversation touches upon the challenges faced by mining operations, such as equipment failure, geopolitical risks, maturing mines, and hurdles common to every operation. Fortuna is used as an example of a company whose significant zinc production should be considered in evaluating its revenue distribution among different metals.
Adrian discusses the disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, attributing it to gold’s strong performance amidst central banks and Chinese investors seeking safe havens and the broad stock market’s strength. Despite potential risks, such as a pause or reduction in buying by central banks and a negative macroeconomic environment, Adrian highlights the opportunity presented by undervalued gold stocks.
The speaker also touches upon exploration expenditures and their importance in discovering new deposits despite the increasing difficulty of finding them. In his investment strategy, Adrian emphasizes investing in senior miners and major royalty companies during the current market cycle due to their undervalued status and likelihood to move first when the gold sector takes off.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on economic stress in financial systems caused by excessive debt accumulated during periods of ultra-low interest rates, with maturing low-interest loans causing strain for households and corporations between 2024 and 2026. Adrian emphasizes the undervaluation of gold mining companies considering gold prices and their margins.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:16 – Miners & Missed Targets
6:43 – All-In-Costs Metrics
9:47 – Production Misses
14:39 – Risks & Juridiction
18:50 – Valuing Poly Deposits
20:55 – Gold Price & Miners
26:17 – Closing The Gap?
30:19 – Mergers & Timing Cycles
33:16 – Companies & Exploration
36:12 – Portfolio Strategies
39:37 – Royalty & Streaming
42:16 – Low Premiums on Metals
46:20 – Silver & Sentiment
47:47 – OTC Purchases & Reports
50:28 – Consumers & Metrics
53:00 – Biggest Stress Points
57:30 – Long-Err-Term Bonds?
1:02:48 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The financial situation of mining companies, even those with initial disappointments, should be thoroughly understood for long-term investment opportunities.
- Barrick Gold serves as an example of managing production misses effectively.
- Cost metrics like per ounce operating costs and all-in sustaining costs are crucial for evaluating mining companies’ profitability and efficiency.
- Various factors that have led to a disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks, presenting opportunity for undervalued gold stocks.
Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Robert Sinn to share his background in precious metals, junior mining, and biotech investing. Robert discusses his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis through his father’s experiences at coin shows and investments. The conversation later focuses on the Federal Reserve’s recent announcement of tapering quantitative tightening and its potential impact on market positioning, emphasizing fiscal dominance and potential softer data suggesting a possible negative non-farm payroll print.
Sinn further explores the Fed’s shift in inflation targeting, proposing that it might adopt a new, unannounced inflation target above 2%, around 3%. He explains that markets have accepted the Fed’s decision not to cut rates as frequently as anticipated, but anticipate at least one more rate cut this year. Parallels are drawn between the late 1970s and the current situation regarding government spending policies and inflation trends.
The discussion then shifts towards energy investments, with Sinn emphasizing uranium and natural gas as crucial areas due to their baseload power generation capabilities and affordability. He acknowledges the transition towards cleaner energy but argues that it will take considerable time for this shift to fully materialize. Sinn holds stocks in both oil companies and renewable energy sectors, adopting a long-term perspective.
Theys explore differences in debt structures between China and the U.S., their implications on markets, and strategies for investing in gold. The conversation shifts to Japan’s debt ownership versus the world owning U.S. debt. This leads to a discussion about China’s debt structure, which sees the government act as the backstop for all debt within their economy.
Robert then delves into the Fed’s influence on markets and its ability to impact financial conditions without changing interest rates. This interview concludes with an emphasis on gold investing, stressing the significance of global data, especially from China, when analyzing gold market trends. Various strategies are suggested for investors looking to stay in the gold market during volatile periods. Robert discusses the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and focusing on the structural bull market trends.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Background & Metals
3:25 – Juniors & Biotech
5:29 – Fed Reactions
10:02 – Fed Inflation Targets
11:36 – Market Reactions
13:25 – 1970s Parallels
16:55 – Energy Investments
20:00 – Seasonality in Biotech
21:22 – War Headlines & Gold
23:12 – Gold A New Era?
26:49 – A Tectonic Shift
28:34 – China Vs. U.S. Debt
30:43 – Fed Rate Clown Show
34:18 – Trader Positioning
37:39 – Bull & Staying Invested
40:43 – Portfolio Structuring
46:00 – Rules For Juniors
49:50 – New Discoveries
53:30 – Lessons & Danger Signs
59:40 – Go Long Yoga Pants
1:00:41 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Roberts background in precious metals and his introduction to gold during the 1990s debt crisis.
- The Fed’s potential shift in inflation targeting: new unannounced target above 2%, around 3%.
- Energy investments: uranium, natural gas, baseload power, affordability, and long-term perspective.
- Strategies for holding on during volatile bull markets.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CEOTechnician
Substack: https://robertsinn.substack.com
CEO.CA: https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV_3gUkg2hbl-Fni4XxNb_Q
Robert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession.
Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles.
Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Don Durrett, an experienced author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss gold prices and the economic implications. Durrett believes an imminent hard economic landing will boost his bullish stance on gold. In March 2023, gold reached new highs above $2050, while silver showed significant gains. However, miners have not followed suit.
Durrett considers the present economic climate different from previous periods due to the Federal Reserve’s reduced ability to revive the economy. He highlights that while the US economy grew and used debt in the 1990s, it eventually balanced its budget. However, since then, the US economy has reportedly been declining for approximately 25 years, leading to significant global shifts like countries abandoning US bonds and equities and increasing interest in gold as a reserve currency.
Japan’s bond and currency struggles could potentially trigger a crisis due to their substantial US treasury holdings. Durrett discusses the potential impact of Asian countries purchasing gold and the importance of oil purchases in gold-importing countries like Japan and China.
Don expresses bearish views on the stock market and bullish predictions for silver prices due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts like those seen with the Hunt Brothers in the past.
Don shares his perspective on gold miners using the HUI index to identify buying and selling opportunities. He considers anything below $250 on the HUI cheap, with levels between $200 and $225 being the buy zone. Opportunities for cheaper stocks extend from $225 to $250. However, as the HUI approaches $300, fewer cheap stocks become available. He anticipates the gold miners’ bull market hasn’t started yet but expects it to resume in the next couple of months and predicts a potential dip in gold and silver prices before the significant uptrend begins. The summer may not be as uneventful this year due to potential rapid market movements once risk-on sentiment shifts to risk-off.
Don has been successful with mid-tier producers some of which have seen substantial growth through acquisitions. He also discusses his investment strategy, holding stocks amidst potential economic downturns, diversification through various investments such as silver, crypto, and physical preparation by selling to the top. He also mentions the unsustainability of constant wars due to increasing budget deficits, implying that peace may prevail as America retreats from its aggressive role on the global stage.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Article & Gold ATH
4:25 – Rates, Risks & Spending
18:37 – Japanese Bond Markets
23:40 – C.B. Gold Buying
27:27 – Gold Price Predictions
31:34 – Silver Expectations
37:50 – Hunt Brothers 2.0?
43:23 – ETF Metal Flows
48:07 – Miners Bull Market?
51:22 – Summer Doldrums?
54:30 – Wall Street Interest?
1:01:22 – Miners Risk Vs. Return
1:10:00 – Stocks & Great Taking?
1:15:10 – Rapid Changes Coming
1:21:22 – Optimism & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Don Durrett believes an economic downturn will boost gold prices; gold & silver reached new highs in March 2023, but miners lagged behind.
- Bearish on stocks, bullish on silver due to inventory shortages, increasing demand, and potential manipulation attempts.
- America’s aggressive role on the global stage unsustainable due to budget deficits, peace may prevail.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrial
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, economist and wealth advisor Jonathan Davis once again joins host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the theme of inflation and its implications for the current economic era. Davis argues that we have transitioned from a disinflationary era lasting over 40 years into one characterized by financial repression, which he defines as higher inflation. Tracing this shift back to the post-World War II era when debt levels were unsustainable, Davis contends that recent financial crises were not caused by COVID but rather by ‘shenanigans’ in financial markets. With interest rates reaching historic lows by 2020, Davis predicts that inflation for the next generation will be between 5% and 10%, and interest rates will significantly increase from past decade levels. This transition to financial repression is a response to politicians, central bankers, and bankers’ desire to maintain inflation rather than risk deflation.
The conversation also touches upon China’s economic shift from manufacturing to consumer industries and property development, expressing concern over the large number of unsold homes in China despite continued commodity demand. Mr. Davis discusses the historical perspective of asset classes, emphasizing substantial returns from stocks, bonds, and property over recent decades but anticipates declining value as interest rates rise. He advocates investing in commodities as a long-term strategy.
Jonathan then discusses the current state of the housing market, despite higher interest rates and the end of fixed-rate mortgages, there hasn’t been a significant impact on the housing market yet due to continued employment and low mortgage rates. He also touches upon commercial real estate, suggesting businesses have been able to mitigate costs by subletting unused space and private equity firms delaying effects of the market downturn.
Jonathan shares insights on oil prices’ correlation with inflation, anticipating a rebound and potentially reaching $200 within the next few years due to insufficient production relative to economic growth, causing significant drops in energy stocks. He encourages staying informed, adapting investment strategies, remaining cautious, and avoiding excessive greed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – The End of an Era
13:05 – Real Rates & Growth
20:10 – De-China-Fication
23:15 – Lending & Global Growth
27:32 – Real Vs. Nominal Returns
29:00 – Dow Long-Term Chart
30:49 – 10-Year Treasury Chart
36:24 – Housing Markets & Rates
41:34 – Commercial Real Estate
45:10 – Uranium Thoughts
51:20 – Miners & Juniors
55:34 – Crude Oil & Energy
1:00:53 – Commodities & HODL Gold
1:05:57 – Eastern Metal Buying
1:08:30 – Maintaining Objectivity
1:10:44 – Uranium & Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
- Davis argues for a new era of financial repression, characterized by higher inflation, due to unsustainable debt levels since the post-World War II era.
- Significant price increases for uranium, gold, and silver miners, and global energy in the next one to three years due to low supply and increasing demand.
- Politicians and central bankers will maintain inflation rather than risk deflation, which would benefit consumers but negatively impact the wealthy.
Guest Links:Website: https://jonathandaviswm.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts
Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute).
Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007.
He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues.
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show.
Lyn discusses abundant and scarce things in investing, focusing on the era of fiscal dominance that has led to bonds becoming abundant. This is due to large budget deficits and private debt being transferred to the public sector. The implications include higher average fiscal-driven inflation and potential impact on asset prices and tax receipts.
The Federal Reserve’s ability to perfectly tune the economy to avoid recession for the next decade is questioned. In emerging markets, stocks may rise in local currency but decrease in hard money terms during recessions. The U.S., however, is experiencing fiscal dominance where public debt exceeds GDP, making it harder to fight inflation and slow down borrowing. While interest rates can help make a country’s currency attractive or reduce borrowing demand, raising interest rates results in ballooning expenses, offsetting disinflationary forces. The commercial real estate sector is heavily impacted, but travel companies, seniors, and wealthy individuals may benefit from higher interest rates.
Lyn discusses the SVB bank crisis in 2023, suggesting that the Fed might prioritize saving banks or the Treasury market over controlling inflation, limiting monetary policy flexibility. The potential outcomes of interest rate cuts include growth and demand for commodities but less effectiveness due to fiscal dominance. She emphasizes energy exposure as a hedge against inflationary pressures.
Investment strategies include owning assets related to dense forms of energy in the energy sector, focusing on demographics, aging workforces, and understanding China’s labor supply and demand. Alternative investment portfolios like the permanent portfolio and IV portfolio deviate from the traditional 60-40 stock-bond split by including gold and commodities for diversification.
The development of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as inevitable due to its size and liquidity, but risks include hacks and confiscations. Developed countries generally accept Bitcoin as a store of value while regulating its use as a medium of exchange. The importance of building tools to make Bitcoin more efficient for users is emphasized.
Lyn’s book, “Broken Money,” discusses global financial system issues, with countries relying on the US dollar facing negative consequences if it devalues or if the US manipulates currencies. Running large structural trade deficits is necessary but comes with negative effects such as decreased export competitiveness and de-industrialization. The shift towards more neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin in response to unreliable US dollars is emphasized, along with considering multiple variables and being data-dependent.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – Bonds, Rates, & Inflation
8:42 – Fed and Recessions
13:30 – Fiscal Dominance & Stability
19:28 – Contrasting the 1940s
23:06 – Feds Blinks at Bank Crisis
25:54 – Deficits & Debt Rollover
29:54 – Rate Cuts & Outcomes
31:52 – Easing and Hard Assets
33:14 – Energy Exposure?
37:40 – Demographics & Demand
41:26 – China & Manufacturing
44:42 – Labor & Underinvestment
47:20 – Skills & Semiconductors
50:00 – Portfolio & Reallocating
53:20 – Bitcoin ETFs & Impacts?
56:06 – Capital Controls & Walls
59:23 – Dollar & Broken Money
1:03:57 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Fiscal dominance, inflation, and importance of shifting to neutral assets.
- Understanding multiple forces in macroeconomics and being data-dependent.
- A Shift to Neutral Assets in a World of Fiscal Dominance and Unreliable Currencies
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Website: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or experienced, there’s a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor’s Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob is founder of 321gold and 321energy.com, and a former Marine Corps fighter pilot during Vietnam. Moriarty believes the year 2024 could be catastrophic due to geopolitical issues and a greater financial crisis but sees opportunities in gold and silver, which have broken out and are expected to continue for the next decade. He emphasizes sentiment and China’s control of the gold market as key drivers of their prices. Moriarty discusses potential peace in the Middle East after Israel’s conflict with Iran, questioning the sustainability of the US sending large aid packages due to bankruptcy.
Moriarty advocates for ignoring external factors like interest rates, currencies, and politics when investing in gold and silver, using sentiment as a useful tool. He highlights China’s significant impact on the gold market and the potential negative vote against US treasuries and the dollar. Moriarty expresses concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on real estate markets, especially commercial property. He also discusses the recent surge in base metals as undervalued commodities and a shift towards commodities from overvalued assets like stocks.
Bob emphasizes the importance of understanding current developments in economy and society, including immigration policies, corruption, and diplomacy. He criticizes the increasing divide between ordinary people and the establishment and advocates for conversation and understanding between opposing sides. He criticizes US foreign policy in Ukraine and advocates for diplomacy to resolve conflicts. He also discusses the impact of misinformation on society and expresses skepticism towards media narratives.
Talking Points From This Episode
- He sees 2024 as a potential crisis year but believes in gold opportunities; emphasizes sentiment and China’s influence.
- Relative calm in the Middle East is possible after the recent Israel-Iran conflict, but US aid sustainability questioned.
- Misinformation if not outright falsehoods in the mainstream media and the importance of diploamcy globally.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – A Catastrophic Year?
2:00 – Whose Driving Metals?
4:52 – Warning Signals
5:43 – Oil Prices & Iran
9:10 – Balance of Power
13:30 – Aid to Ukraine
19:37 – Measuring Sentiment
21:46 – Lessons in FOMO
23:24 – Eastern Gold Shift
25:10 – Mortgages & Real Estate
27:19 – Base Metal Indications
28:37 – Government & Corruption
30:57 – Reasons for Optimism
32:12 – Diplomacy & Conversation
37:53 – Alt Media & Opinions
43:53 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.com
Website: http://www.321energy.com
Books on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, who manages investments worth $1.2 billion in gold and related assets. They discuss the ASA closed-end fund, which invests in precious metals mining, processing, or exploration companies, and is unique due to its longer-term focus compared to ETFs. Merk took over management in 2019 and transformed it into an investment vehicle for junior mining companies. This fund helps small development and exploration firms by providing capital during funding rounds and increasing their share prices, making them more attractive to larger investors.
Merk also talks about the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies on gold mining and equities during economic downturns or periods of easing financial conditions. He shares his past predictions for a possible recession in 2023 but acknowledges recessions are unpredictable. Merk believes that gold miners provide value over the long term, despite risks, and stresses the importance of risk assessment.
Axel discusses Saba Capital Management’s ongoing attempts to gain control over ASA Gold and Precious Metals Limited. If successful, this could negatively impact the mining industry due to potential cost-cutting measures or changes to the fund’s mandate. Despite expressing support for ASA as a fund manager, Axel encourages constructive dialogue between all parties. Axel highlights ASA’s unique features that make it difficult for activists like Saba to achieve their goals easily. The future implications include continued engagement with Saba or potential liquidation if they gain control, and the importance of shareholder votes in the outcome. Investors are encouraged to stay informed and vote in proxy contests.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – ASA Closed End Fund
3:42 – Funding for Juniors
10:43 – The Monetary Environment
15:26 – Fed & Distorted Data
17:57 – Recent Moves in Gold
20:50 – Closed Vs. Open Funds
25:08 – Strategic Investments
26:42 – ASA Board Concerns
32:16 – SABA Contested Proxy
35:10 – A Call to Shareholders
37:30 – Friday Apr 26 Vote
41:06 – Future for the Fund?
44:33 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerk
Website: https://www.merkinvestments.com/
Blog Post: https://www.merkinvestments.com/insights-and-reports/2024-03-18
Website: https://asaltd.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaew
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.
Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk’s book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.
Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
Axel lives in the San Francisco Bay Area with his wife and their four children. Furthermore, he is a marathon runner and a private pilot.
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron to discuss the markets and current geopolitical instability. Although gold prices saw a spike due to recent events between Iran and Israel, they gave back most of the gains shortly after. Christopher emphasizes the importance of considering historical data and long-term trends when analyzing gold price movements.
Chris discusses how the Dow Jones and gold have been trading in lockstep due to the preoccupation with Fed policy. They note that during past bull markets, average investors shifted funds from stock indexes into gold or silver when they underperformed. However, the current cycle shows a flat Dow to gold ratio for the last eight years, suggesting mainstream investors are yet to enter the precious metals sector. The potential implications of this situation and its impact on future market performance are emphasized.
Despite gold ETFs losing gold holdings as mainstream investors sell their shares even during price surges, they predict gold should come back to retest its recent highs before experiencing a multi-year trend of significant new highs. Christopher shares his insights from the 2008 financial crisis and how he now prioritizes price data over fundamental analysis. They also touch upon historical gold price trends, including how gold always retests breakout points after significant price increases.
Christopher discusses the potential catalyst for the Federal Reserve to shift from its hawkish stance being a global or regional war. He suggests that higher interest rates may lead to higher commodity prices and emphasizes the need for markets to reconsider their current beliefs. The conversation then shifts to silver, which has broken its downward trend but faces significant resistance at $30 per ounce. Christopher is skeptical about silver’s potential return as a full-time monetary metal in perpetuity but acknowledges the possibility during periods of financial instability.
Chris emphasizes the importance of being aware and prepared amidst current turbulent times while also encouraging listeners not to stop living their lives.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – Geopolitical Tensions
4:37 – Sentiment & ATH Gold
9:15 – Dow Vs. Gold
12:00 – Dow Gold Ratio
15:52 – Opportunity?
18:20 – Breakouts & Retests
23:14 – Fundamentals & China
27:00 – Catalysts & Israel
32:50 – Inflation Narratives
38:30 – Fed Shift?
40:33 – Silver & Resistance
44:45 – Monetary Silver?
45:54 – Miners & Resources
51:16 – Jurisdictional Risks
55:57 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Importance of historical data for analyzing gold price movements amid current geopolitical instability; Gold ETFs losing holdings despite recent surges
- Markets ignoring fundamental supply and demand in favor of Fed policy and the potential return of mainstream investors to precious metals sector.
- Predicting gold retesting highs before significant new price trends.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGold
Website: https://igoldadvisor.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 – 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back John Rubino, a former Wall Street financial analyst and author, to discuss the current bull market in gold. Rubino asserts that gold’s intrinsic value is significantly higher than its present price, which could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis. He also posits that a potential collapse of the financial system due to debt could lead to a return to a gold-backed currency or a currency reset.
They explore the implications of inflation and currency devaluation on various assets including stocks, real estate, bonds, and gold. John argues that adjusting investment numbers for inflation offers a different perspective on asset value over time. He warns about potential risks in the financial system, such as a commercial real estate crash or an equities bear market. He also discusses the deficit in the silver market, which could result in significant price spikes and potential defaults on futures contracts.
Despite uncertainty, John suggests investment strategies for investing in real assets like gold and silver. Investors should consider gold as a long-term investment and focus on positive goals during uncertain times to build capital for future challenges. Gold is currently seen as a store of value, but demand for it is minimal but starting to rise. Once gold breaks through resistance and support levels, it could lead to a significant run in the market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Gold Market Developments
4:10 – Gold Backing & Debt
8:15 – Who Will Buy US Bonds?
12:45 – Inflation Outlook
17:28 – Asset Valuations
22 :38 – Gold Drivers & Geopolitics
27:26 – Next Financial Crisis?
33:10 – Silver & Supply Issues
38:10 – Silver Industrial Demand
42:38 – Investment Demand & FOMO
47:35 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold’s potential value increase, reaching $5,000-$10,000 per ounce based on historical analysis.
- Risks of financial panic, potential scenarios like commercial real estate crash or equities bear market.
- Investment strategies proposed to protect against times of crises.
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.com
Books: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.
Tom welcomes back Ravi Sood to the show to discuss the many changes in the economy and mining industry. Ravi touches upon various topics related to the global financial system, gold prices, and the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He discusses the lack of significant changes in the financial system since the 1970s and the potential role of Bitcoin in challenging traditional monetary systems. He also highlights the uncertainty and potential risks in the current economic situation due to the pandemic and other factors. The conversation also delves into the importance of investing in physical commodities like gold and other minerals, as well as the role of technology in driving demand for these resources.
Furthermore, they explore the effects of a strong US dollar on the economy and suggests alternative policies to improve trade balance. The discussion also covers the challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and the potential impact of CBDCs. The gold market is analyzed, with the author noting signs of optimism amidst a perceived bubble, and the mining industry’s financial issues are also discussed, along with the interest in renewable energy transition and the cyclical nature of commodities business.
Throughout the interview, Ravi emphasizes the need for a better understanding of the financial system and the importance of making informed decisions based on current economic conditions and potential future changes.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
3:30 – Gold, Bias & Sound Money
10:17 – Global Can Kicking
17:42 – A No Win Scenario?
20:00 – US Commodity Demand
22:28 – Feds Levers & Control Risk
26:44 – Bitcoin, Banks, & ETFs
33:50 – Commercial Banks & Economy
36:05 – Unhedged Mining
44:52 – Gold Highs & Reality
49:05 – Mining Industry Health
56:17 – Energy & GDP Correlation
59:00 – 3 Phases of New Energy
1:02:20 – Green Energy Storage
1:05:04 – Commodities & Capital
1:07:18 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The financial system has not seen a major shift since the 1970s, with concerns about sustainability of the existing monetary systems.
- Physical commodities like gold and other minerals could help the United States address economic challenges by creating jobs and reducing reliance on foreign currency.
- The gold market exhibits signs of optimism for an eventual end to its current bubble, with factors such as increased production and lower interest rates affecting its future.
Guest Links:Website: https://golcondagold.com
Website: https://evrec.energy
Ravi Sood is Chairman of Golconda Gold and an experienced financier focused on emerging markets. Mr. Sood was the founder and former CEO of Navina Asset Management, a Toronto-based investment firm that was acquired by a major financial institution. Mr. Sood also serves as a director of several companies including Blockchain Power Trust, Feronia Inc., and Eve & Co. Previously Mr. Sood was a director of ICC Labs (acquired) and Elgin Mining (acquired).
Ravi Sood has a bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo.
This is a rebroadcast of our April 10 Twitter Spaces focusing on the recent metal moves, the metals industry, and overall investor sentiment. Bob Coleman and Vince Lanci discuss the effects of big players in the markets and how investor sentiment remains cautious. Jim discusses why margin requirements have to be adjusted during periods of volatility. Vince and Bob discusses at length the various big players in the market and how they influence it along with their general strategies. Lastly, Bob discusses the role of ETF’s and the current premiums on physical metals.
Note: Unfortunately, the last hour of this spaces was not recorded properly.
Bob Coleman – Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Vince LanciSpecial Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/TomPalisades
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Jim Hunter – Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1
Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. They discuss various economic and geopolitical issues shaping the global landscape. Topics range from potential conflicts and their impact on markets to the shift towards physical assets and a gold-backed monetary system. Simon touches upon underreported inflation, economic instability in America, China’s role in reshaping the global economy, potential crisis scenarios, and the importance of diplomacy versus war.
Simon is concerned about the risk of conflicts escalating, with Russia as a key player, and the emergence of gold-backed currencies to counteract perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies. Additionally, they discuss the significance of rising interest rates, potential crises, and implications for U.S. elections and global geopolitical outcomes. Throughout, Simon encourages caution and emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic trends and geopolitical dynamics.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:46 – The World & War
5:38 – Equity Complacency
7:02 – Russia & Syria
9:17 – Economic Catalysts
14:32 – Serious Correction
18:18 – Leveraged Bank System
19:24 – Capital Shifts & China
22:57 – Gold Backed Currency
29:26 – Dollar & Rates
30:53 – Chinese Demographics
33:50 – China’s Manufacturing
37:40 – Nuclear Energy
39:31 – China Debt
42:32 – Chasing Rainbows
44:30 – Europe In Recession
48:15 – Inflation Issues
52:25 – Expect More Unknowns
53:35 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Geopolitical tensions could lead to significant market shocks in equity and base metal markets before mid-year due to underreported inflation and weak economic activity.
- Shift towards gold-backed currencies is inevitable as countries seek alternatives to perceived vulnerabilities in fiat currencies, with China and Russia likely taking a leading role.
- Diplomacy could prevent war, but tensions between the US and countries like Russia suggest that war may be an outcome if Washington continues to support the dollar at the expense of its treasury market.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.com
Website: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.
The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.
Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.
Simon established this company in January 1996.
Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to delve into the various market trends and investment strategies. Greer, who is bullish on gold, S&P, industrial miners, and uranium, while bearish on bonds, shares his perspective on the current economic climate. He references the volatile year of 1994, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, and believes that if similar circumstances arise again, the Fed will respond with rate cuts, leading to a bullish stock market environment. The commodity sector, particularly natural resources and housing, has seen a significant shift from tech markets, which remain mixed or flat. Greer attributes this trend to potential geopolitical tensions and increasing ISM manufacturing figures, possibly pointing towards the early stages of a World War III scenario.
Greer discusses his bullish stance on gold due to central bank buying and physical demand. While some may view the recent gold rally as a head fake, he remains committed to the precious metal. He believes that declining total gold ETF holdings could indicate less speculation and increased interest in physical gold ownership. The speakers also touch upon the potential implications of increasing national debt on the US dollar and the possibility that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will decline against gold. They ponder if the current trends in oil, copper, and other commodities represent a cyclical shift from underinvestment to materials necessary for economic growth.
Throughout their discussion, they emphasize the importance of staying informed about market changes and adjusting investment strategies accordingly. Greer suggests repositioning portfolios towards natural resources and industrial sectors, despite slower growth compared to tech stocks, as these markets may have more significant impacts with smaller amounts of capital. The conversation highlights potential long-term consequences of current economic trends, including national debt levels and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Timestamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Bullish Stocks & Gold
9:23 – Fed Games & Inflation
15:12 – Gold Rally & Disorder
17:15 – Gold Vs. Silver
18:12 – Metals & Frustration
20:30 – Capital Rotation
23:17 – Gold ETF Declines
24:42 – Metal Investing
26:20 – The WHO Quagmire
28:44 – Confidence in Media
30:18 – Exponential Debt
31:49 – Oil & Copper Cycles
33:52 – Peak Frustration
36:40 – Uranium Fundamentals
39:13 – Time to Pay Attention
42:30 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Tony is bullish on both gold, miners and the S&P 500.
- Declining Gold ETF Holdings could signal a shift from paper to physical.
- Tony discusses the importance of paying careful attention to your portfolio this year.
Guest Links:Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacro
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
Tom welcomes back David Brady to discuss future market movements based on Fed decisions and current geopolitics. David suggests that investors should invest in physical silver and gold as a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and cyber attacks. He believes that the pullback from recent highs will be shallow but may require a big event to drive it. David mentions that some people are suggesting $100 silver is a slam dunk and that high beta miners are going to go through the stratosphere. David emphasizes that investing in these assets can be expensive, so people should pick an amount they feel comfortable with and buy as much as possible.
This episode also highlights the current equity market trends and how gold and silver are performing. David explains that the recent increase in the price of gold and silver is not due to a specific event but rather a collective reaction to the loss of confidence in the economy. He suggests that the price of gold and silver may continue to rise, as more people seek safety in these assets during times of uncertainty.
The interview also touches on the potential impact of the 2020 US presidential election on the value of gold and silver. David believes that the current economic and political environment may lead to a stock market crash and a subsequent decline in the value of assets like gold and silver, which would benefit their investors. However, he also mentions other potential risks facing the economy, such as the banking system, wars, and the loss of confidence in government institutions.
David believes that investors have good reason to be bullish on the current precious metal market conditions and expects continued growth in the coming years. However, he also acknowledges the potential risks facing the economy and the political landscape, which could lead to a significant decline in the broader equity markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Gold Train All Aboard?
5:06 – Rate Cuts & Dollar
10:19 – Demand & Confidence
12:40 – COT Data & Metrics
19:22 – Stock Market Thoughts
24:12 – Silver Vs. Gold?
29:12 – Portfolio Positioning
34:48 – Valuations & Silver
39:42 – Confiscation & The East
43:00 – Housing & Employment
45:10 – Gloom, Doom, & Popcorn
50:28 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The recent increase in gold and silver prices is likely driven by a collective reaction to economic uncertainty, not a specific event.
- Investing in physical silver and gold can provide a hedge against inflation, stock market crashes, and other black swan events.
- A pullback from recent highs may be shallow but requires a big event to drive it.
Substack: https://fipestreport.substack.com/
Fund Website: https://4779Capital.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, “Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed,” in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator.
According to Hamilton, the recent rally in gold prices is primarily driven by fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, with seasonality playing a small role. He noted that gold stocks are undervalued compared to gold prices, presenting a significant opportunity for investors.
Hamilton pointed out that physical demand, such as Indian weddings and Chinese New Year, contributes to the underlying strength of the gold market. However, he emphasized that sentiment and herd mentality are crucial factors in the current rally, particularly during the spring season when optimism and exuberance tend to increase.
Adam also discussed the Commitments of Traders Report (COT) and how it can be used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends in gold futures markets. He tracks changes in speculators’ long and short positions over time to identify periods of buying or selling that may indicate a change in market sentiment or trend.
Hamilton also highlighted the importance of tracking gold ETF holdings as an indicator of investment demand for gold. However, he noted that it is essential to distinguish between physical demand and ETF demand when analyzing the gold market. He suggested breaking down western physical demand into categories such as bars and coins and foreign demand from regions such as Europe and Asia.
Hamilton believes that there is still significant potential for investment demand to drive up the price of gold, with speculators having only completed 55% of their total potential buying since the uptrend began in early October. He also pointed out that retail investors will drive the surge in demand for physical gold, leading to reports of shortages and pushing up the physical price.
Adam is interested in the potential of physically-backed digital gold currencies, especially among younger generations who are attracted to digital assets. He believes there will be high demand for a Bitcoin-like tradable vehicle backed by physical gold, making it easier for people to own and transact with gold.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Recent Gold Moves
2:36 – Seasonality & Asia
4:30 – Miner Performance
5:45 – Seasons & Sentiment
7:46 – Investor Shift?
9:48 – Supply & Demand
11:53 – 2020 Vs. 2024
13:33 – Driving Factors
15:43 – Gold Indicators
18:20 – Types of Gold Demand
21:00 – West Retail Buying?
23:38 – Mining Sectors
24:58 – Fundamentals & FOMO
28:26 – Money Supply/Inflation
32:06 – Hedonic Adjustments
32:47 – Compelling Thoughts?
35:32 – ETFs & Physical Gold
37:38 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold prices rally due to fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and seasonality.
- Undervalued gold stocks present a significant opportunity for investors.
- Physically-backed digital gold currencies could attract younger generations.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/
Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.
By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.
Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life. Adam is a Christian saved by Jesus Christ. He and his wife are greatly blessed with 2 children, and they live in Colorado.
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith discusses his 2024 gold outlook report which focuses on cause and effect in markets and economy, analyzing the impact of rising interest rates on GDP components like consumption and wages. Higher interest rates reduce the burden of paying wages but also decrease credit availability, affecting businesses’ ability to operate. Consumers may sell assets as wages and other expenses tighten up.
Keith discusses the use of lagging indicators like employment and yield curve inversion to predict economic trends. Employment is said to be a lagging indicator because it reacts to changes in the economy with a delay, and its predictive value is reduced due to the Feds influence on employers. Yield curve inversion, where long-term interest rates are lower than short-term ones, has historically signaled an upcoming recession. However, Keith argues that this indicator should be interpreted carefully because the Fed only controls short-term rates, and a yield curve un-inversion may actually signal the Fed’s reaction to a credit crisis rather than its cause.
The low interest rate environment of the past 40 years has driven businesses to take on more risk and leverage to achieve returns. This has resulted in the creation of “zombie companies” that have profits less than their interest expense and cannot survive without artificially low interest rates. A recent study found that 20% of corporate debt was zombie debt before interest rates started to rise. The impact of hiking interest rates on these companies is uncertain, but it has not yet resulted in widespread issues.
It seems that the current economic situation, with high inflation and rising interest rates, is leading to a process of supply destruction in many industries. This means that in order for companies to maintain or increase their return on capital, they will need to destroy a significant amount of supply, which will likely result in job losses, bankruptcies, and a lot of pain for entrepreneurs and investors. The market will only reward the best and luckiest actors in this situation, as those who got loans earlier or have lower cost structures may be better positioned to survive. This process is not necessarily merit-based, but rather determined by timing and luck.
Keith, who predicted a $2300 gold price for this year, notes we are close to reaching it. This rise is due to physical demand in the East and not speculation as seen before. Gold may drop less during a crisis compared to other assets and could make new highs soon after. There’s less leverage in the gold market now, leading to less price drop during liquidation and potentially higher prices post-crisis. The LIBOR rate, previously an indicator of unsecured credit rates between banks, is no longer quoted and has been replaced by the SOFR rate, which reflects policy as it is a secured overnight funding rate using Treasury bonds as collateral. Gold’s future price should be higher than spot due to carry costs, primarily interest rates. The calculated fundamental price attempts to determine the price of gold if speculators did not influence the market. Dubai sees high demand for physical gold, with an estimated 500-700 tons a year being unofficially exported through retail purchases by tourists.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Spending & Wages
5:07 – Consumer Squeeze
7:36 – Lagging Indicators
10:48 – Yield Curve Inversion
14:40 – Returns, Risks, & Zombies
22:02 – GDP & Gov’t Spending
23:23 – Credit Tightness
24:37 – Supply/Demand Issues
29:12 – Fed & Capital Costs
37:07 – 2024 Gold Performance
41:28 – Next Crisis & Fed Cuts
43:54 – SOFOR & LIBOR
48:12 – Jewelry Trade & Dubai
50:47 – Wrap Up & Gold Report
Talking Points From This Episode
- The impact of rising interest rates on GDP components and their role in creating “zombie companies.”
- Employment acts as a lagging indicator influenced by the FED and cautioned against overinterpreting yield curve inversion as a sign of an upcoming recession.
- Current high inflation and rising interest rates, could result in supply destruction, bankruptcies, and job losses in various industries.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, host Tom Bodrovics speaks with Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeff discusses his background and what brought about the creation of the CPM Group.
CPM Group’s research department was established in the late 1960s to gather data and estimate supply and demand for gold and silver as the gold standard was ending and silver was being removed from coinage and currency systems. The company has a strong track record of accurately projecting prices due to their continuous gathering of data and maintaining a global network of contacts.
Jeff discusses the recent demand for gold from investors has been high, with net investment demand for physical gold totaling 25, 26, and 24 million ounces in the last three years. This level of demand tends to cause an increase in gold prices, as seen by record annual average gold prices every year for the past four years. The price of gold has increased significantly since 2000 and is expected to continue to rise in 2024 and 2025 due to several macroeconomic drivers.
Despite inflation coming down and interest rates rising, investment demand for gold remains strong. Governments and central banks are buying gold to diversify their reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar. China, in particular, has a growing appetite for gold due to centuries of political disunion and civil wars, making the yellow metal a safe haven for them.
Jeff discusses the impact of The Shanghai Gold Exchange in taking some market share from London, with Chinese investors paying higher premiums for gold compared to the West. The Chinese currency’s lack of free trade also affects gold prices in the country. While some gold has moved to China, there are still multiples of the amount of gold built up in Switzerland over the last 10-20 years.
The amount of gold being mined is down somewhat from its peak due to reduced exploration and development spending during a period of lower gold prices. However, higher gold prices in recent years have led to an increase in investment in exploration and development. The capital markets tend to be short-term and cyclical, which can create challenges for long-term financing needs in the industry.
Lastly, Jeff discusses the lack of interest from investors and speculators in gold miners is due to a range of issues, including changes in the equity markets and institutional investment practices. The gap between the performance of smaller companies and large companies has never been wider, making it more challenging for smaller mining companies to access capital.
CPM Group’s 2024 Gold Yearbook provides in-depth information on the gold market and its trends, including charts and valuable historical data not found elsewhere.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – CME Research History
7:18 – Recent Gold Demand
10:10 – Main Macro Drivers
12:48 – CME Gold Outlook
17:44 – Fed Rates Normalizing?
20:12 – U.S. Debt Servicing
29:16 – Dollar & Euro Demand
31:38 – Dot Plots & Projections
33:10 – Gold & Election Uncertainty
36:48 – Media Narrative Divide
38:40 – Impact of Bitcoin
40:30 – Demand During Crisis?
44:42 – Lower Rates & Gold?
47:34 – China & Gold
50:55 – Shanghai & Pricing
54:14 – Production & Demand
55:20 – Miners CapEx & Supply
59:58 – Silver’s Role
1:01:02 – Strategic Role?
1:04:15 – CBDCs & Hyperinflation
1:10:32 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- CPM Group’s gold research spans 30+ years, providing unbiased data & analysis.
- Outlook for gold through 2024/2025 and why demand remains high.
- Thoughts on the Dollar, Treasuries and the long-term debt of the United States.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.com
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
Bob Miner, a seasoned trader with over 40 years of experience, joined Tom Bodrovics on Palisades to discuss his insights on the current market trends. Bob emphasized that trends and countertrends are based on group psychology and cycles of optimism and pessimism. He shared a story about a "nephew indicator" that is more reliable than economic indicators for understanding market extremes.Bob discussed his approach to trading in the foreign exchange (FOREX) market, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying fundamentals and technicals of a currency pair. He also discussed the current state of the gold market, noting that it is currently in a bullish uptrend but may be approaching a potential sign of completion.In addition, Bob discussed commodity and inflation indices, specifically focusing on uranium. He believes that uranium may be about to complete a correction before continuing its upward trend. Bob also emphasized the importance of having a plan in place for exiting positions if signs of a breakout failure appear.Bob has been studying the U.S. election cycle and its impact on stock market trends for over 25 years, and he has developed a book that is considered the definitive guide to this topic. He provided a table showing the percentage gain for each month from the spring low to the summer high since 1952, indicating that there has only been one year when there was a loss from the spring low to the summer high.Talking Points From This EpisodeThe importance of understanding group psychology and cycles of optimism and pessimism in predicting market trends.The relevance of fundamentals and technicals in foreign exchange (FOREX) trading, especially in understanding currency pairs.The potential for a bullish uptrend in the gold market, but also the possibility of a sign of completion and the importance of having a plan in place for exiting positions.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Robert's Background3:27 - Key Market Catalyst6:23 - Trading Vs. Forecasts10:19 - Exiting Trades12:35 - Fed, Trends & Dollar20:10 - Gold Charts & Trends33:23 - Dollar & Treasuries40:57 - Crude Oil/Inflation44:08 - Analysis & Factors48:00 - Crude Weekly Chart52:10 - URA ETF Monthly56:59 - Elections/Markets Book1:07:42 - Bitcoin Report1:13:00 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://dynamictraders.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/BobAtDTYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrtHpWM3GlFmCdqCkOL3xAgRobert Miner began his career in the mid-80’s with his first company, Gann-Elliott Educators, where he produced analysis reports for the major financial markets and presented live workshops in the U.S. and overseas. In the mid-90’s he founded Dynamic Traders Group to provide market analysis and trade strategy reports, practical trade education and developed his Dynamic Trader Software.Robert wrote the first self-study trading course in 1989 where he expanded on and integrated the work of W.D. Gann, R.N. Elliott and his own unique approach to Fib time and price target strategies into his own comprehensive and original approach to multiple time frame time, price, pattern and momentum trade strategies.Robert’s first book, Dynamic Trading, was named the “Trading Book of the Year” by the SuperTradersAlmanac and he was named the 1997 “Guru of the Year”. His book, High Probability Trading Strategies, has been one of the consistently top selling trading books since its release in 2008. It has become a must-read classic trading book of practical trade strategies.Robert is recognized as one of the few trading educators with an actual multi-year record of trading success. In 1993, he won first place in an annual real-time, real-money trading contest for futures. In more recent years, he has demonstrated the effectiveness of his practical trade strategies with audited returns and awards five consecutive years for real time trading contests with double and triple digit annual returns fo...
Tom welcomes back David Skarica, publisher and founder of Stockchart of the Day, about a potential threat to market stability. Skarica sees increased frothiness in the market, with Bitcoin ETFs being launched and widespread optimism about Bitcoin reaching 150k - 300k, similar to the behavior seen in 2017 and 2021. He warns that investors should be cautious about the current state of the market and consider investing in assets that can protect their wealth during market downturns.Skarica points out that the top 10 largest stocks now account for 29% of total market cap, similar to the height of market bubbles, with stocks like NVIDIA and Apple trading based on growth rather than sales. He suggests looking at NVIDIA's chart and other related stocks to understand the market better.The US government has been issuing more short-term debt instead of taking advantage of low long-term interest rates, which could lead to problems when the debt needs to be rolled over in the future. The market is demanding higher returns on US debt due to increasing debt levels and higher spending, leading to a potential sovereign debt crisis in the US. Commodities and gold markets are also anticipating this potential crisis, with commodities near resistance levels and gold breaking out.Skarica discusses the reissuing of debt and the potential for a shorter maturity on those bonds due to the real rate of return. He notes that there is currently more demand for two-year treasury bonds, which have a fixed market and yield 4.6%, compared to 10-year bonds, which are subject to price fluctuations and have lower yields. Skarica warns of the risk of buying long-term bonds, as demonstrated by the TLT ETF, which has decreased in value by 40% while only offering a 0.5% yield.David discusses the potential convergence of various economic cycles, including a debt cycle and a Dow theory cycle, and what this could mean for the price of gold and the capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle in the mining industry. He suggests that loose monetary policy and QE tend to lead to investment in sectors that were not the focus of the previous market bubble, such as emerging markets, commodities, and inflation-protected sectors.Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Threats and Markets4:38 - Recent Market Rally10:40 - Corporate Vs Gov't Debt16:58 - Maturities & Bonds26:00 - Dow Transport Avg27:40 - Rates & Market Forces31:21 - Debt Monetization33:28 - Japanese Yen Chart36:29 - Liquidity & Demand38:20 - Fed Talk & Rates41:08 - Soros & Efficient Mkts.44:30 - Bulls & Bear Documentary45:47 - Gold & CAPEX Cycle50:43 - Irrational Markets?55:52 - The Green Dream59:55 - Fun/Risky Markets1:02:27 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpsiodeInvestor caution is urged due to market frothiness and potential threat to stability.Top 10 largest stocks account for 29% of total market cap, similar to past market bubble peaks.US sovereign debt crisis possible due to increasing debt levels, higher spending, and demand for higher returns on debt.Guest Links:YouTube: https://youtube.com/@scotdayTwitter: https://twitter.com/DavidSkaricaPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/stockchartofthedayDavid Skarica is the Founder and Editor of Stock Chart Of The Day a popular newsletter known for its stellar performance in both up and down markets. Skarica entered the financial markets at a very young age and became the youngest person on record to pass the Canadian Securities Course at the age of eighteen.David is a regular speaker at trade and investment conferences in Canada and is a guest on the Business News Network (BNN), Canada's flagship business broadcasting network. His work has appeared in publications such as the Bull and Bear Financial Report, Barron's, Investor's Digest of Canada, and Canadian MoneySaver. Skarica also writes Gold Stock Adviser, an investment newsletter for the conservative media outlet, Newsmax. David's book, Collapse,
Tom welcomes Mark O'Byrne back to the show. Mark is the Founder of Health Wealth Gold.Mark O'Byrne, a precious metals expert, sees value in gold and silver as insurance against various risks, including internet shutdowns and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) technology. He emphasizes that governments with extensive powers can threaten individuals' finances, especially in a cashless society. While cryptocurrencies offer an alternative digital gold, O'Byrne warns of the risks associated with digital assets.Internet shutdowns, which have occurred in democratic countries like India to control narratives and dissent, can disrupt financial systems, including Bitcoin, gold ETFs, and digital gold platforms. Although off-chain transactions are possible for some Bitcoin users, they aren't viable for many. The vulnerability of digital assets highlights the importance of physical assets like gold and silver in a diversified portfolio.O'Byrne also discusses potential government restrictions or bans on certain technologies, such as Bitcoin, due to concerns about backdoors into devices. He suggests that most assets are now accessed via usernames and passwords, creating risks if there are vulnerabilities in digital platforms.The expert also cautions against assuming a global financial crisis and bail-ins are inevitable, noting the importance of understanding the complexities of these issues. In recent times, there has been a significant increase in gold and silver bullion products from new private mints globally, leading to high inventories and decreased premiums for non-legal tender bullion products like silver and gold rounds. However, O'Byrne observes an uptick in demand for both metals and anticipates positive fundamentals for silver due to declining production in Mexico and Peru and increasing international demand.Despite some concerns about silver stackers potentially selling their holdings when the price reaches $30 per ounce, O'Byrne remains optimistic about the future of silver. He advises investors to take profits instead of waiting for unpredictable price targets set by gurus and suggests following him on Twitter or LinkedIn for updates on his research and insights into the gold and silver markets.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Interconnected World5:18 - Digital Asset Risks8:08 - Cash During a Crisis11:40 - Censorship & Control20:22 - Bank Failure Risks27:47 - New Mints & Bullion34:42 - ETF Inventories36:12 - Bullion Banks39:12 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeMark recommends gold and silver as insurance against risks like internet shutdowns, EMP technology, and cashless society threats.Governments may restrict or ban certain technologies like Bitcoin due to concerns about digital platform vulnerabilities; physical assets remain crucial in diversified portfolios.Despite potential for a silver sell off around $30 per ounce, O'Byrne observes increased demand and positive fundamentals.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/marktobyrneWebsite: https://www.taracoins.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtcpfS0ZjfQEeOyYbw6xeYgLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markobyrne/Mark O’Byrne is one of the leading authorities on silver and gold internationally with a high profile in social media & mainstream media having appeared on RTE, CNBC, Bloomberg and most Irish and international print, radio and tv media.He founded GoldCore, Ireland’s largest gold and silver broker in 2003 and exited in 2020 after his team and he had made it Ireland’s largest gold broker and storage provider. GoldCore became a respected gold bullion specialist internationally with over 20,000 clients in over 140 countries and over €1 billion in sales.History was his degree and he has a lifelong interest in monetary history and gold and silver and their role in protecting people from currency devaluations, the decline of nations and Empires,
Tom welcomes back Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence to the show.Mike discusses the current state of financial markets, with a particular focus on gold and Bitcoin. He suggested that investors should consider having exposure to both as part of a diversified portfolio, as they serve different purposes. There has been a shift in investor sentiment towards digital assets, with significant outflows from gold ETFs and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. McGlone also cautioned that the US stock market is overdue for a correction, which could impact both gold and Bitcoin.Regarding the current state of the financial markets, McGlone believes the US stock market is overvalued compared to the rest of the world, and a reversion could lead to a deflationary environment benefiting gold, crude oil, and copper. He also expressed concerns about the relationship between the US and China, stating that a conflict could have significant implications for the global economy.Regarding gold, McGlone noted its outperformance compared to the S&P 500 since the Fed started tightening in late 2021. However, he also mentioned a gap in the S&P 500 E-minis at around 4600, which could lead to a normal correction in the stock market, benefiting gold by flushing out weak longs and creating a more stable environment.The interview also touched upon inflation, deflation, and the US dollar. While there has been a deflationary impulse in commodities, inflation is being driven mostly by services due to unprecedented money pumping measures by the Fed. The US dollar will remain unstoppable compared to other fiat currencies, but open discourse is crucial for maintaining its value and strength.The speaker added that a significant test for the US stock market could trigger a catalyst needed for the West to start driving gold prices along with the East. When this reversion to the mean occurs in the overvalued US stock market, it will have a profound impact on markets. They also suggested following Mike McGlone, an analyst who covers the gold and commodities markets, on Twitter for more information on these topics.Talking Points From This EpisodeMike McGlone recommends considering both gold and some Bitcoin in a diversified portfolio.He warns of an overdue US stock market correction that could affect markest and potential for deflationary benefits to gold, crude oil, and copper when a reversion occurs.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Bottoms on Commodities3:09 - Gold, ETFs, & Bitcoin8:54 - Metals & Recession Risks11:40 - Thoughts on Silver13:50 - Equity Markets & Recession18:44 - U.S. Recession Risks21:20 - Rate Hike Lag Effects24:06 - Yield Curve Thoughts26:17 - Elections & Market Volatility29:23 - Commodities & Deflation31:12 - Q.E. & The Dollar35:06 - Gold East Vs. West?37:28 - Gold Vs. Equity Returns39:15 - Mean Reversion40:13 - M2 & Equity Prices41:46 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-mcglone-a8442513/Mike McGlone is a senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, a unique research platform that provides context on industries, companies, and government policy, available on the Bloomberg Professional service at BI(GO). Mr. McGlone specializes in the broad investible commodity markets. Mr. McGlone joined Bloomberg in 2016 with over 25 years of futures and commodity trading and investing experience, beginning at the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to joining Bloomberg, he was a head of US research at ETF Securities. Prior to ETF Securities, Mr. McGlone headed the commodity business at S&P Indices. His previous roles included head of futures research at ABN Amro and VP research, analyst, trader, sales at Aubrey G. Lanston / IBJ Futures.Mr. McGlone has an MBA from DePaul University in Chicago and bachelor's of science and arts degrees from Illinois State University.
Tom welcomes back Bob Coleman and Steve St. Angelo to discuss the precious metals markets. The market is undergoing a significant shift, with more sellers than buyers and dealers finding it difficult to sell at profitable prices. This has resulted in a collapse of bids and an increase in spread risk. There are also risks associated with storing metals with dealers due to counterparty risk, storage risk, and the structure programs they may be involved in.The market has moved from retail demand to a paper market that is shorting precious metals, causing prices to rise but sentiment to remain negative. Investors are waiting for lower prices to buy again. The spike in silver prices could be due to increased inventory buying by wholesale dealers who then sell futures contracts to finance their purchases. This carry trade can become unsustainable if the price of silver rises and dealers are forced to buy back their futures contracts at a loss, potentially fueling further price increases.High premiums in the silver market could indicate that someone is stuck on the wrong side of a trade and trying to exit, causing the futures market price to rise. The situation is not so much a physical issue as it is a paper problem, with CTAs holding large short positions in silver.In the gold market, GLD flows and gold prices have historically moved together, but this relationship changed when interest rates started rising rapidly in mid-2022. Institutional investors have not sold much of their gold or GLD, suggesting that most of the selling is happening outside the institutional market. The strong demand for Treasuries at high-interest rates and reduced central bank gold purchases might be driving the price of gold.There has been a shift in capital allocation from ETFs holding metals to other asset classes, particularly technology stocks. This trend poses challenges for precious metal investors but also creates opportunities for those who can identify value and navigate the current market conditions. They note that there is a risk of reaching a "max stupid point" where the market becomes overheated and unsustainable.Market psychology appears to be shifting towards a dot-com bubble mentality, with everyone chasing after Bitcoin and other high-tech investments, making it difficult for precious metal investors to make their case. Bob also warns of the risks associated with storing metals with dealers and suggests that investors should ensure they are doing business with a reputable and sustainable company.Gold and silver markets are heavily influenced by paper trading, hedging, financialization, and cost of production. Shifts in demand from east to west and short squeezes in the futures market can impact prices. ETFs that hold physical metals but issue new shares based on demand carry a risk of decreasing premiums to net asset value if the price of the metal falls. It is important to understand the complexities of paper trading and hedging in these markets, as well as the potential for market manipulation by authorized participants and market makers.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Physical Demand14:06 - Recent Premiums17:21 - Public Sentiment20:33 - Silver Wholesale Market23:25 - Who's on the Wrong Side?32:10 - SLV/GLD & Retail Sales36:30 - Gold Drivers & Treasuries45:10 - Asset Values ETFS & Crypto47:52 - Flows Out of ETFS53:18 - Sentiment & Solvency58:27 - Know Your Counterparty1:04:28 - SLV Borrowing Costs?1:07:45 - Current Rally Outlook1:11:20 - Bitcoin Mining Stocks1:13:27 - Treasuries & Collateral1:14:48 - Public Momentum in PMs1:18:22 - NatGas & Energy Inflation1:21:05 - Central Bank Buying1:22:34 - Financialization & ETFs1:27:00 - U.S. Debt & Treasuries1:29:40 - Silver & Flows1:31:08 - Geopolitical Suppression?1:34:10 - Eastern Price & Silver1:43:53 - Price Impacts of Shorts1:46:38 - GME Squeeze & Markets1:52:33 - GLD/SLV Withdrawals1:58:17 - West-East Metal Flows2:00:00 - Overseas Storage?
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates back to the show. Larry discuses the current inflation outlook and compares it to the 1970s, noting the current driving forces are different but "rhyme" with the past. Expectations play a significant role in inflation, with people believing prices will rise.The International Swaps and Deals Association (ISDA) has written to the Federal Reserve Board suggesting that the market for treasuries is becoming less liquid, which could be problematic. The ISDA recommends eliminating the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), allowing banks to buy more treasuries without repercussions and potentially monetizing federal deficits. This move would increase money supply growth, currency dilution, and demand for sound money investments.Mr. Lepard believes that the US federal budget deficit will continue to rise, with the current administration accelerating fiscal irresponsibility. He predicts that sound money assets like gold and Bitcoin will increase in value, with gold potentially reaching $3,000 per ounce by year-end. The Federal Reserve is balancing three mandates, but its emergency powers have led to increased leverage and complex trades. The federal government's debt is not sustainable, and when investors take notice, it could lead to a sharp repricing of bonds with significant consequences for the economy.Lepard is optimistic about a return to sound money standards post-hyperinflation but sees no signs of this happening soon. He believes that gold can go as high as $10,000 per ounce and encourages investors to allocate a good portion of their assets in things the government can't print. The current market conditions provide an opportunity for investors to consider selling stocks and buying gold as protection against economic uncertainty and stock market volatility.Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Inflation Outlook8:06 - Fed & Expectations10:08 - Infinite Q.E. Endgame12:02 - Crossing The Rubicon20:50 - End of the BTFP26:03 - Fed is Trapped32:30 - Bananna Republics & Cans36:47 - Currency Failure List48:30 - Market Tops & Liquidity53:49 - Hard Asset Mkt. Sizes58:08 - Commodities & Risks1:04:07 - Investor Time Horizon1:08:22 - Inflation Vs. Returns1:10:50 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeContrasting inflation today with that of the 1970s.A possible method being discussed to deploy additional stealth easing via the banking system.The importance of having sound money when markets are near all-time highs to mitigate risk.Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepardBitcoin Speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czdPJpRa9KILawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline," discusses the global population decline and its economic implications in a recent interview. According to Bricker, fertility rates are dropping, leading to accelerated population declines since 2016-2017, even earlier than anticipated in China. This trend has significant consequences for economies that rely on people for growth and labor.The global baby boom generation will reach retirement age by 2030, causing a rapid impact on the workforce. Countries like Japan and Italy already experience annual population declines. The UN offers three population projections: high variant (14 billion), medium variant (10.4 billion by 2100), and low variant (8.6 billion). Bricker notes that the median variant, representing the UN's projection, assumes a replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.Environmental chemicals could impact hormonal disruption in fertility rates, but Bricker attributes the primary cause to cultural and psychological factors, such as humanity's changing perspective on creating future generations. Additionally, immigration and adapting to the birth rate of one's country of residence are common.Declining global fertility rates and population growth present challenges for the economy, as consumerism and consumption decrease with aging populations, leading to slower economic growth. Governments face political challenges when attempting to address these issues by pushing back retirement ages. Countries like Japan, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Hungary are already grappling with significant population declines.Bricker acknowledges that the degrowth movement sees human activity as harmful to the planet and suggests fewer people would lead to less consumption and a better environment. However, he believes they underestimate the impact of such a transition. Bricker emphasizes that declining fertility rates require adaptation and will result in a different world for future generations.Data on declining fertility rates has become increasingly compelling, making it difficult to deny the issue. Bricker notes that this situation is unprecedented and requires careful consideration when making long-term business decisions, particularly in industries like mining and natural resources.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Population Trends3:26 - Rapid Changes5:20 - U.N. Projections7:12 - Births & Urbanization10:45 - Family Economics14:07 - Retirement Age & Labor16:02 - Offshoring Labor21:09 - China Policies22:16 - Peak Projections25:46 - The Cake is Baked27:27 - Immigration?29:26 - Environment & Hormones32:20 - Possible Solutions?34:10 - Compelling Data35:40 - Future Resource Demand39:10 - Wrap UpGuest links:Website: https://www.ipsos.com/Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/darrellbrickerAmazon Book: https://www.amazon.com/Empty-Planet-audiobook/dp/B07MGSC2X5/ref=sr_1_1?sr=8-1Bricker is the current Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, a polling, research, marketing, and analysis company.While Bricker was completing his B.A. studies, he began to specialize in research, polling, and analysis methods. This led to further specialization during his M.A. and Ph.D.After completing his Ph.D. at Carleton University in 1989, Bricker was hired in the Office of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney as the Director of Public Opinion Research. After a year in the Prime Minister's Office, Bricker was hired by the Angus Reid Group, a polling and analysis company that eventually merged with Ipsos.
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the show.Michael begins by focusing on the current state of the US financial system and potential risks ahead. With the bank term funding program expiring next week, there may be stress in the banking system as banks will have to repay credit received and take back their assets. Other risks include rising unemployment rates, impacting various loan markets, and indicators such as a contraction in the manufacturing sector for 16 months, an inverted yield curve, and increasing bankruptcies. Michael suggests that the economy is unhealthy and unbalanced, favoring the wealthy while harming the middle class and lower-income individuals.Michael feels there's potential for another liquidity crisis in the US banking system. While the Fed could implement measures like another bank term funding program, it would be problematic amid high inflation, potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and a sovereign debt crisis. He argues that options for addressing a liquidity crisis are limited and any measures taken may have unintended consequences.Mr. Pento believes we're in a bubble economy due to excessive money printing and low interest rates. Pento expects inflation to continue to rise, leading to a recession and potentially a serious bear market for stocks.Pento discusses the relationship between gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that Wall Street and the general public have been more focused on Bitcoin due to its higher profile and influence of sponsors in financial media. He believes gold is a more reliable store of value and better hedge against inflation than Bitcoin. Michael advises investors to pay attention to economic cycles and consider active steps for protection, like diversifying into precious metals and actively managing your investments.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Fed & Liquidity Levels3:39 - Bitcoin Tangent6:14 - Fed BTFP Program End9:38 - Unemployment & Banks11:48 - Economy & Manufacturing14:58 - Debt, Defaults, & Problems19:52 - Fed Inflation & Printing25:00 - Good Intentions & Roads27:10 - Gold Positioning & Rates30:20 - Hype Train & Bitcoin/Gold32:37 - Miners Vs. Physical34:18 - Avoid Losing Money!36:39 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeBank term funding program expires shortly which may cause increased stress in the banking system as banks must repay credit and reclaim assetss.Potential risks to financial sector include rising unemployment rates, impact on loan markets, and multiple negative indicators.Limited options exist for the Fed to address a liquidity crisis, and any measures taken could have unintended consequences.Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: mpento@pentoport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpentoMichael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.
Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show. Kevin discusses the concept of "rolling mini bubbles" in markets. These bubbles form when an asset class or theme gains popularity among hedge funds, causing price increases based on perceived momentum rather than underlying value. Muir cited Tesla and the electric vehicle (EV) market as examples, noting that while these bubbles can inflate quickly, they also deflate rapidly.Muir suggested that certain stocks, particularly those related to EVs and artificial intelligence, are currently experiencing a bubble. He advised investors to focus on buying undervalued stocks and mentioned Japan as an area of potential value due to recent government actions benefiting the stock market. Muir also discussed the concept of reflexivity, introduced by George Soros, which suggests that investor actions can influence and be influenced by market performance, leading to more frequent and violent bubbles.The interview touches on Canada's economy, with Muir arguing that it is not as strong as the US despite similar fiscal stimulus during COVID-19. He pointed out that America spent more overall, experienced a larger housing bubble burst in 2008 leading to deleveraging, and currently has lower consumer debt compared to Canada. These factors make Canada more sensitive to higher interest rates, which Muir predicts will negatively impact the Canadian economy.Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact.Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Rolling Mini Bubbles4:18 - Chip Manufacturing8:03 - Demand & Rising Price9:52 - Bubbles & Risky Trades11:12 - Japanese Value Stocks16:04 - Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus25:40 - Spending Canada Vs. U.S.30:40 - Fiscal Dominance Era38:23 - Fiscal Spending & Inflation43:52 - Wags, Inflation & Gold51:15 - Eastern Gold Holdings54:04 - The Golden Endgame58:28 - Performance of Miners1:00:00 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.comKevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.
Tom welcomes back New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert Larry McDonald.Larry discussed the impact of political decisions on the U.S. economy and markets. He highlights the concerning trend of deficit spending relative to GDP, revealing that it cost the U.S. $834 billion to grow the GDP by $334 billion in the last quarter of 2023. He predicts a continued focus on short-term economic growth by politicians to retain power, leading to an inflationary economic environment. McDonald also discussed the potential implications for banks with commercial real estate holdings, emphasizing the need for Federal Reserve intervention as the market faces a significant downturn. He warned of a potential economic crisis if the Fed raises interest rates, putting stress on both banks and consumers.McDonald shares his insights on an impending energy crisis around 2025-2026. He attributes this coming crisis to factors such as population growth, improved living standards in developing nations, and inadequate capital investments in energy resources. He underscores the impact of geopolitical tensions and climate change on supply chains and inflation, shaping a shift towards a multipolar world order. McDonald suggests that these changes will influence the performance of precious metals, with potential disruptions creating opportunities for investors. He also emphasizes the importance of addressing sustainability concerns, noting that progress in this area may be slower than anticipated. McDonald's forthcoming book, set to be released in March, delves deeper into these pressing issues.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Politics & Debt5:32 - Democrats & Spending10:12 - Loosening Talk & Effect15:28 - Banks & Commercial Losses19:27 - Economic Realities22:37 - Wealth Concentration27:54 - Risks - Stocks & Banking31:28 - Geopolitics & Conflicts38:10 - Precious Metals43:24 - Green Energy & Metals46:54 - Book Announcement48:54 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeDeficit spending costs: U.S. spent $834B for $334B GDP growth in Q4 2023.Banks face commercial real estate crisis, may need Fed intervention.Predicted energy crisis 2025-2026 due to global factors and capital shortfall.Guest Links:Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/convertbondNew Book - Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/2capfzt9Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China's Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today's leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 - 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Society Generale.In 2010 he founded an investment research firm which publishes the The Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.Prior to working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities ...
Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, Founder of "The Market Sniper" to the show.Francis discusses the current market dynamics, opportunities in gold and crypto markets, and the prospect of an impending financial crisis. Hunt draws attention to the performance of Bitcoin compared to gold, declaring the former's rapid growth as compelling despite its recognized risks. In light of these observations, he encourages investors to be adaptable with their strategies, hinting at the possible advantage of divesting from Bitcoin at its peak and redirecting to gold.Hunt prognosticates 2022 as a crucial year due to the convergence of significant events including elections, halving of Bitcoin, and fluctuations in quantitative easing and tightening. Analyzing the long-term differential between 30-year and 2-year bonds, Hunt warns of an upcoming financial meltdown due to the yield curve inversion, positioning it as an almost certain harbinger of economic turmoil. He foresees a massive sell-off fueled by potential banking crises and debt markets.Hunt further contemplates the impact of high levels of debt on the economy, using Japan's experience as an illustrative case. He attributes the country's economic stagnation in part to its heavy debt, a situation that resulted in the yen's depreciation and, paradoxically, enhanced competitiveness of Japanese companies globally. Despite the immediate challenges, Hunt is optimistic about the performance of Japan's stock market due in part to their depreciating currency and globally competitive corporations.Turning his scrutiny to the state of the global debt market, Hunt asserts that faith in debt has dwindled, signaling the end of the 40-year bond bull market. The reluctance of banks to accept illiquid assets as collateral indicates an even bigger issue, foreshadowing elevated interest rates and an impending crisis. As the global economy edges towards a potential debt collapse, he advocates for investing in gold as a consistently safe asset. He proposes a sequence to amplify wealth: initiate with gold, then silver, and finally miners, presenting these options as a safeguard against impending economic instability. Despite his frank appraisal of the risks inherent in the current economic climate, Hunt reiterates his support for precious metals as a viable hedge against financial turbulence.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Investing Approaches2:12 - Insider Selling4:55 - Bitcoin in Gold Ounces12:50 - Bitcoin Sentiment16:16 - Bitcoin Vs. Dollar20:45 - Volatility & Exits21:50 - Silver Outlook23:04 - Gold Vs. Dollar28:22 - 2024 Outlook & Fed32:04 - Treasury Inversion37:30 - Cause and Effect38:55 - Debt Implications50:50 - Outlook For Pensions54:50 - The Bond Market Shift58:00 - Real Bubble is Debt1:02:13 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeBitcoin's rapid growth compared to gold is compelling, but it comes with risks. Adaptability in investment strategies, like divesting from Bitcoin at its peak, can be advantageous.The convergence of events in 2022, like elections and Bitcoin halving, could trigger a financial crisis. Yield curve inversion suggests an imminent economic meltdown with potential banking crises.Global debt market signals the end of a 40-year bond bull market. Banks' reluctance for illiquid assets as collateral hints at rising interest rates and a looming crisis. Invest in gold for stability.Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniperFrancis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach,
In the second half of this interview, London Paul dives into the recent interview with Tucker Carlson, London Paul reflects on the significance of Vladimir Putin's discussion on a range of topics. While many expected the interview to be a game changer, Paul argues that it did not provide any new information and criticizes Putin's history lesson as self-indulgent. He suggests that Carlson could have asked tougher questions. Paul believes that the interview, while it may have rattled some in the West, was not as groundbreaking as people believed. He points out that other events, such as Putin's 2018 speech on Russia's military capabilities, have had more significant implications.Paul then discusses the lessons NATO has learned from the war in Ukraine. He argues that NATO initially underestimated Russia's military capability and has now come to realize its strength. He also dismisses the belief that Russia wants to recreate the Soviet Union and invade the Baltic republics. Paul predicts that if Ukraine loses the war, NATO will face division and its future will be in doubt. He also suggests that there will be political fallout within Ukraine and among European nations, potentially leading to the rise of populist governments and questioning the future of the European Union.Paul explains the difference between a war and a special military operation and emphasizes that Russia is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine. He highlights the importance of avoiding a situation where Russia declares war on Ukraine to prevent further escalation and a potential global nuclear war. He acknowledges growing concerns within the US about financing the war and emphasizes the need to end the conflict due to its devastating impact on the Ukrainian people.Lastly, Paul argues that the US has lost its military power and is facing numerous challenges and conflicts that it cannot effectively manage. Despite this, he believes that if the US faces reality and adapts, it can still be a great nation amongst equals. He encourages listeners to be informed about global events and mentions his podcast, which releases five episodes per week.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Putin Tucker Interview15:14 - NATO & Political Failure19:46 - Ukraine Post War24:20 - War Vs. S.M.O33:05 - Western Bias & Dominance37:45 - Israel & Gaza41:00 - Western Fears & Reality47:32 - Embracing Change50:52 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeLondon Paul believes that Vladimir Putin's recent interview with Tucker Carlson was not as groundbreaking as people expected, as it did not provide new or surprising information.Paul predicts that if Ukraine loses the war with Russia, NATO will face division and its future will be in doubt, potentially leading to the rise of populist governments and questioning the future of the European Union.Paul emphasizes the importance of avoiding a situation where Russia declares war on Ukraine, as it could lead to further escalation and potentially trigger a global nuclear war.Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thesiriusreportThe Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity.Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs.
Tom welcomes back Paul from the Sirius Report to continue discussing the geopolitical shift from a unipolar world to a multipolar world. Paul highlights the failure of the traditional unipolarity model for economic reasons, particularly since the financial crisis of 2008. The global South wants to assert its autonomy and make its own decisions, which has led to a push for de-dollarization and the development of alternative payment mechanisms. The Ukraine war and the imposition of sanctions on Russia have shown that it is possible to function outside the SWIFT system and conduct transactions in local currencies. The global South also points out that it has a real economy based on manufacturing and production, unlike the West, which is heavily dependent on financialization. The economies of the BRICS countries, in total, are now higher than the G7 economies, further highlighting the shift towards multipolarity.In terms of resources and energy, the conflict in Ukraine highlighted their importance in the world. Russia's resilience in the face of sanctions showed the rest of the world that they could operate outside the dominant Western paradigm. Energy is the lifeblood of nations, and countries like Russia and Iran have vast resources that are essential for the world's energy needs. The global South, with its access to resources and lack of financialization, is in a better position for long-term growth compared to the debt-ridden West. Collaboration and win-win partnerships will be essential for a multipolar world to thrive.Paul also discusses the looming commercial real estate bubble and its slow-burning effect on the economy. The pandemic has led to a decline in demand for commercial real estate, and although the too big to fail banks may not be directly affected, their investments in the shadow banking sector make them vulnerable. The regulators are starting to pay attention, but it may be too little, too late. The Western financial system faces multiple challenges, such as debt levels, deindustrialization, and the instability of the US dollar. Attempting to preserve financialization and the dollar while the real economy suffers is not a sustainable solution.Paul highlights the interconnection between the financial system and the real economy, emphasizing the importance of resources and energy for a sustainable system. He warns against the fudging of financial and economic data, stating that printing money can have inflationary consequences and lead to the implosion of the economy, as seen in Weimar Germany. In contrast, Eastern nations like China are buying gold to preserve wealth and insulate themselves from the US dollar and US Treasuries. China, along with other Eastern countries, focuses on building a real economy and backing their currencies with tangible assets. Understanding these different approaches and perspectives is crucial in recognizing the shift towards a multipolar world.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Complexities & Geopolitics12:10 - Sanctions & Global South17:18 - BRICS & Untapped Resources26:20 - Big Banks & "Assets"35:20 - Dollar System Failing48:06 - West Vs. East Discipline57:28 - Investment in ChinaTalking Points From This Episode - The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is driven by the global South's push for autonomy and de-dollarization. - Energy and resources play a vital role in the shift towards multipolarity, benefiting countries with access to these assets. - The Western financial system faces challenges such as a commercial real estate bubble, debt levels, and the unstable US dollar.Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thesiriusreportThe Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm.
Tom welcomes back Kevin Wadsworth of Northstarbadcharts.com discusses various aspects of investing, highlighting the importance of risk management and identification of technical indicators to potentially predict market direction. The discussion reveals that while individual stock gains can impress, assessing the percentage gain a portfolio has made is a more significant measure of success. Specific strategies like application of stop losses and position sizing within risk management protocol are also clarified as useful investment tactics.The evaluation of gold performance as a protective hedge against negative market outcomes is explored. The usage of ratio charts to identify gold miners overperforming the ASA index is also advocated. The analysis reveals the increasing prominence of uranium, potentially signaling a shift of capital into this sector. By judging economic indicators through a technical lens, predictions can be made regarding impending market dynamics.A probing analysis is made of Nvidia which is nearing two trillion market cap. A possible bearish rising wedge in the company's chart suggests a potential increase towards $1,300 by November with a subsequent post-election decline.The interview concludes with a hypothesis regarding an impending market shift, identifying a yield curve inversion where the 10-year yield has a higher interest rate than the 2-year yield as a potential crisis signal. A shift in capital towards precious metals is predicted as a potential catalyst for real growth.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Bets & Risk Management6:20 - Sentiment & Gold8:43 - Gold & Mad Gainz11:45 - Thoughts on Silver15:05 - ASA Miners Vs. Gold18:46 - Finding Opportunity20:29 - Uranium Chart25:55 - Stops & Mitigating Risk27:10 - Volume Usefulness30:22 - US Treasury Charts34:44 - Big Picture Thinking41:38 - Silver Vs. Dollar42:40 - NVIDIA Mkt. Cap46:04 - 10 Year Risk Matrix53:21 - DXY Vs. Gold56:33 - Markets This Fall58:22 - FOMO & Gold Vs. Dollar1:03:48 - Evidence & Confidence1:06:39 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarChartsTwitter: https://x.com/badcharts1Kevin Wadsworth is a seasoned chart trader with over 15 years of experience and a strong following on social media. With a background in meteorology spanning over 30 years, he has worked in various professional roles, including military and civilian weather forecasting. Currently serving as a Civil Contingency Advisor, Kevin provides advanced warning and guidance for life-threatening weather events and collaborates with emergency response teams.His interest in the financial world was sparked by a colleague in the early 2000s, and he became particularly fascinated after the 2008 financial crash. Drawing parallels between weather forecasting and predicting market movements, Kevin emphasizes the importance of gathering evidence from various sources, much like assessing multiple weather models. His approach focuses on presenting clear, unbiased charts based on the weight of evidence, rather than personal bias.Kevin's expertise lies in distilling complex information into actionable insights, whether it's forecasting weather patterns or market trends.
Tom welcomes back Egon von Greyerz, founder and managing partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland. Egon highlights concerns about the current state of the global economy. He underlined the mounting national debts and potential for war as the two primary factors adding to the world's chaos. Despite this, he stresses the importance of focusing on individual wellbeing and controlling what can be influenced personally.Greyerz suggests investment in gold as an effective method of wealth preservation. This is because gold maintains its purchasing power over extended periods, even as fiat currencies lose value. Greyerz predicted a surge in gold interest as a safe haven amid increasing national deficits and economic instability worldwide. The attractiveness of gold is amplified by the potential impacts of overdue debts, particularly in the real estate sector.Furthermore, Greyerz draws attention to the significant shift in the U.S. government's method of funding debt. As central banks continue to create fiat currency, many countries are offloading their U.S. treasury bonds, leaving the Federal Reserve as the main purchaser. This situation, combined with an inflationary world economy, may trigger more financial troubles. Greyerz expresses concerns that governments could potentially confiscate assets or force investment into specific securities such as U.S. treasuries. Moreover, Greyerz warns of the risks associated with investments in Bitcoin and Gold ETFs, emphasizing the need for owning physical gold stored outside the banking system for effective wealth preservation. Despite an overall gloomy prediction for the global economy, Greyerz urges investors to focus on non-monetary values such as family ties and personal relationships.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:30 - Wealth Vs. Living2:33 - Gold Fundamentals12:55 - Dollar & Debt Outlook18:17 - BRICS & Russia20:22 - C.B. Gold Buying29:42 - U.S. Gold Holdings?33:25 - Counterparties & Audits34:49 - Scarcity & Balance37:04 - Inflation & Wars39:16 - Fed & Rates44:10 - Other Assets?47:38 - Gold ETF Concerns51:08 - Concluding Thoughts53:22 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeWhy Gold reliably retains purchasing power over time, unlike fiat currencies."Exponential gold price rise predicted due to increasing demand, limited supply.Greyerz cautions the risks of potential government confiscation of assets in banks.He also notes that the best things in life are free and help those around you.Guest Links:Website: https://vg.gold/Website: https://www.goldswitzerland.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerlandEgon von Greyerz is Founder & Managing Partner of Von Greyerz Gold SwitzerlandEgon began his professional life in Geneva as a banker and thereafter spent 17 years as the Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc. During that time, Dixons expanded from a small photographic retailer to a FTSE 100 company and the largest consumer electronics retailer in the UK.During the 1990s, Egon became actively involved with financial investment activities including mergers and acquisitions and asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of Von Greyerz as an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles.Von Greyerz is now the world’s leading company for direct investor ownership of physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Our vaults include the biggest and safest gold vault in the world, located in the Swiss Alps. Clients include High Net Worth Individuals, Family Offices, Pension Funds, Investment Funds and Trusts in over 90 countries.Egon makes regular media appearances and speaks at investment conferences around the world. He also publishes articles on precious metals, the world economy and wealth preservation.
Tom welcomes back once again the Head Writer from the Doomberg Chicken Coop. In this interview Doomberg breaks down many of the energy myths around supply and scarcity in an era of technological advancement.Doomberg discusses the hotly contested concept of 'peak cheap oil,' which asserts that the global economy will soon experience a severe decline in easily affordable oil due to dwindling supplies. Given a humorous twist, Doomberg confidently counters this theory in a manner that ruffles a few feathers amongst its proponents.Despite his animated personality, Doomberg intelligently lays out a counter-narrative to the peak oil theory, asserting that technological advancements and human adaptability would consistently flex and adapt under the strain of assumed dwindling oil reserves. This plucky chicken argues that, contrary to popular belief, if there was an imminent oil crisis, current political and economic constraints would dissipate, causing nations to rally together and adopt necessary measures to prevent disaster.Like an experienced egg-cracker, Doomberg breaks down the processes of oil refining, expressing faith in the industry's ability to convert various hydrocarbon types into numerous usable oil products. So, even when lighter hydrocarbons are at play, Doomberg insists they can be transformed into heavier substances like jet fuel, demonstrating the industry's adaptability.In laying out potential solutions to the imminent dread of peak oil reality, Doomberg sounds the rooster's crow, waking us to the possibilities we would explore to keep oil supply constant and prices economical. Doomberg avows that political restrictions would be shed, conventional oil reserves exploited, shale drilling technology would become widespread, and enormous natural gas reservoirs would be tapped. This talking Chicken Little goes even further to say that faced with skyrocketing oil prices, we would simply alter our engines to run on cheaper, abundant natural gas.Doomberg does not mince words about the central importance of energy to the economy, reminding us that despite several crises since the 70s, our primary energy use continues to grow, showcasing our resilience and adaptability. Moreover, Doomberg reiterates that we are far from exhausting accessible and affordable oil— the limitations are more political and temporary than physical or absolute.The talkative chicken does a beak drop on the shale oil industry, clarifying that while it is concentrated heavily in the US, the technology can be copied and used globally, particularly by significant players like China.To cap it off, Doomberg reaffirms that we have plentiful oil reserves, and our innovative abilities, coupled with political compromises, would forestall any imminent oil crisis. In this engaging conversation laced with comedy and fowl-play, Doomberg manages to debunk several misconceptions about oil exhaustion and the looming energy crisis, presenting a future marked by human ingenuity and widespread energy production. Whether it's talking about oil, natural gas, or ethanol, it's clear that Doomberg is no chicken when it comes to tackling complex topics and laying out hard-boiled facts.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Twilight in the Desert?9:54 - Crude Production15:42 - SPR & Inflation22:00 - Oil's Importance24:54 - Nuclear Narratives27:06 - Energy Needs & Growth28:54 - Artificial Limits?31:34 - Global Reserves33:26 - Shale & Analysts35:58 - China & Energy Tech.37:40 - Russian Resources40:07 - Iran & Politics42:28 - New World Oil44:58 - U.S. Manufacturing48:34 - Recession & Energy50:10 - SPR & Politics53:24 - Oil Price & Inflation59:43 - Ethanol & Hydrogen1:04:06 - New & Future Tech.1:05:15 - Critiques?1:08:56 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeTechnological advancements and human adaptability consistently outpace fear-driven predictions of depleting oil reserves.Our adequate oil reserves coupled with our inno...
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of the Contra Speculator.In this eye-opening discussion, Nick Giambruno exposes the truth behind the banking system and challenges the common misconception that the money in your bank account belongs to you. Through a detailed analysis, he reveals the legal and financial realities that make you an unsecured creditor of the bank, rather than a rightful owner of your funds. Discover the shocking implications of this arrangement and how it places you at the mercy of the banking establishment. Brace yourself for a paradigm-shifting perspective on your hard-earned money.Cautioning on the potential fallout of an escalating interest expense on federal debt, Giambruno expresses worries over the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes. Massive interest payments could lead to the federal government's bankruptcy. Borrowing money to service existing debt means mounting, potentially catastrophic, debt levels. He expresses skepticism over Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), viewing them as a desperate rescue attempt for the failing fiat system. In contrast, he sees Bitcoin as a formidable central bank competitor.Discussing the geopolitical scenario, Giambruno expresses concern over the increased US expulsion from the Middle East and the likelihood of escalating conflicts. This situation, he posits, could affect oil-related equities. From his base in Argentina, he observes the anticipated presidency of Javier Milei, who may refrain from dollarization to maintain sovereignty and could transition towards a free market currency system. Nevertheless, he points out that this is a challenging transformation requiring an extensive overhaul of the existing system.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Henry Ford Quote5:50 - Money Vs. Currency10:16 - Capital Controls & Collapse11:46 - The Hiking Cycle is Over15:06 - Why CBDCs Will Fail18:22 - Bitcoin & Alternatives20:32 - Silver's Future Role22:16 - Fragile Oil Markets25:50 - Conflicts & Geopolitics31:00 - Risk of False Flags31:53 - Argentina & Javier Milei35:27 - El Salvador & Bitcoin37:12 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeChallenging the common misconception that the money in your bank account belongs to you.The Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and potential fallout on federal debt.The geopolitical scenarios and concern over increased conflicts in the Middle East.Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/NickGiambrunoWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.comNick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report, Mountain Vision,
Sam Lawrie from Adams Bullion converses with your host Tom Bodrovics about the US market's response to the recent hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data. The data increased the value of the US dollar and consequently caused a significant decrease in gold and silver value. They assess the long-term implications, noting that sustained high interest rates could greatly increase the cost of the maturing US national debt. Lawrie acknowledges that initially, high-interest rates may discourage gold investments but maintains that a bullish perspective on gold is more favorable in the long term. The termination of the Bank Term Funding Program might trigger downside movements, he suggests.Lawrie speculates that Jerome Powell's unexpected switch in stance concerning interest rates in December could be due to a possible banking sector crisis. He notes a political push for lower interest rates in countries such as Australia and argues that despite being above inflation targets, having lower rates benefits lower-income individuals, which could push the economy towards hyperinflation. The conversation covers the political use of the oil market, with Lawrie attributing the draining of the SPR last year to inflation moderation. He also highlights the current Middle-Eastern issues and the strained relations with Iran as potential triggers for oil price increase.Lawrie predicts that inflation will intensify over time, driven by high oil prices which will increase the cost of nearly all goods. He argues that people are inclined to spend money today if they believe it will lose value tomorrow. Despite the predicted intensification of inflation, Lawrie notes that several western governments are considering ways to manage inflation. He discusses the consequences of central bank gold leasing on gold revaluation and advises people to contemplate national-level counterparty risk regarding gold ownership if a revaluation event occurs.The conversation also covers the US stock market, with Lawrie pointing out the substantial gains from top companies like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft. He characterizes the situation as strange, likening it to a bubble where fundamentals no longer bear significance. Lawrie is also keeping a keen eye on Treasury auctions, noting that if there aren't enough buyers, the Federal Reserve might have to buy some of that debt. Lawrie concludes the conversation by noting an increased interest in precious metals from first-time buyers and an evident shift towards silver due to the gold to silver ratio, despite supply chain issues and rising freight costs.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - CPI Reports & Gold Mkt.4:05 - Fed Bank Term Funding5:17 - DXY Vs. Gold7:55 - Fed & Powell Reversal13:40 - Oil, SPR & Inflation17:00 - China Reopening19:08 - Peak Oil & Shale21:03 - Inflation Outlook & Rates29:08 - Debt & Systemic Risks33:32 - Equity Market Value36:24 - 2024 Outlook & Bonds39:13 - Gold Sales Trends42:26 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeThe recent CPI inflation data caused a decrease in the value of gold and silver, but a bullish perspective remains in the long term.Jerome Powell's switch in interest rate stance in December may indicate a possible banking sector crisis.Inflation is predicted to intensify over time due to high oil prices, leading to an increased interest in precious metals.Guest Links:Website: https://adamsbullion.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/adamseconomicsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepubliccrusaderSam Lawrie has worked in the financial services industry for 5 years across CFD broking, algorithmic trading, equities analysis services and bullion dealing. He is an avid precious metals investor and advocate, having started his precious metals journey in 2018.Sam has worked with thousands of clients over the years, teaching them about finance, economics, and precious metals, helping them to protect themselves financially.
Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. They discuss the media interview with Vladimir Putin, the contemporary stock market, economic uncertainties, and potential financial reforms. Kranzler appreciates the Carlson interview as a rare example of genuine journalism that reveals Putin's motives and the U.S.' provocative interventions in stark contrast to the narratives of mainstream media. Speaking as an investor, Kranzler analyses the dominance of a few companies in the S&P, suggesting it to be an indicator of a stock market bubble. He posits that the Federal Reserve may be trying to avert a banking crisis by reinflating the bubble, but warns this could lead to inflation and social disparity.Recognizing vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate sector, Dave anticipates a black swan event caused by the overwhelming debt of $117 billion this year and over $1.5 trillion by 2025. The implications of escalating U.S federal debt are also discussed, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to print more money if a significant foreign financier withdraws. They examine the deceptive representations in government economic reports and the prevailing economic hardships ignored by these reports. Despite partisan politics obstructing genuine reform, they urge for term limits and campaign finance reform, while recognizing the improbability of such changes without a societal reset.Dave stresses the importance of rigorous analysis rather than relying on company reports alone when investing, suggesting that companies like Snap and Tesla are overvalued. He predicts that the market may eventually favor companies producing essential raw materials, following a market crash. They comment on the current investment culture, dictated by momentum and technological influence, and advocate for traditional metrics and investing standards. Investments in well-run gold and silver companies are presented as a prime example of value stocks.Discussing market competitiveness, they denote the need for companies to maintain their share price, using Fortuna Silver as an example. Despite a temporary setback, its future prospects appear promising due to new discoveries and share buyouts. Despite the uncertainty and price manipulation in the precious metals sector, they remain optimistic of a future bull cycle, driven by factors such as high inflation, political instability, and geopolitical risks. International demand also provides a safety net for gold prices.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Putin/Tucker Interview4:40 - Bias & Poking The Bear11:00 - S&P500 & Tech Bubbles15:05 - Perception & Risk20:54 - Looming Black Swans24:40 - Federal Debt Refinancing29:28 - GDP "Growth", CPI & Reality32:47 - The Silent Recession36:42 - Unfixable Problems41:00 - Pain Before Reset42:50 - Company Valuations49:26 - Miners & Valuations55:07 - Sentiment & Apathy58:08 - Metal Fundamentals1:03:52 - Market Behavior & Risk1:07:54 - Concluding Thoughts1:12:52 - Wrap UpTalking Points From This EpisodeKranzler identifies a stock market bubble, warns of potential inflation and social disparity instigated by Federal Reserve actions.Discussions forecast a 'black swan event' in the commercial real estate sector and potential money printing due to increasing U.S. federal debt.Kranzler advocates for rigorous, unbiased investment analysis and prefers value stocks in gold and silver companies despite market uncertainties.Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journalDavid Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance.
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn, founder of the Uranium Insider Newsletter, to discuss the unusual dynamics of today's uranium market. Huhn points out the current lack of secondary supplies which has led to a significant deficit expected to last until large projects become operational in three to five years. These multiple buyers vying for limited supplies should keep prices high for some time.In Kazakhstan, Kazatomprom continually drills to maintain crucial uranium production levels. However, the industry faces a notable shortage of skilled workers, a problem not confined to Kazakhstan, but also affecting the United States and Canada. The potential ban on imports of Russian uranium into the US, currently awaiting Senate approval, could lead to further price increases if passed.Huhn also discusses China's considerable impact on the uranium market. Despite having a large geographic area, China lacks substantial uranium resources. With 55 gigawatts of nuclear capacity and 26 reactors under construction, the country's domestic demand far surpasses supply. Therefore, China seeks international contracts, recently signing substantial deals with KazAtomProm, the world's leading uranium producer. Unlike Western strategies, China aims for a stable long-term supply strategy, making it unlikely they will become uranium sellers, despite owning the world's largest uranium inventory.Huhn notes that while nuclear utilities might not like escalating uranium prices, they can transfer these costs to rate payers as uranium is a minor faction of their operating budgets. High uranium prices are beneficial to the industry and are expected to continue due to growing demand and supply constraints.The chance of the current market creating overheating on underlying assets remains uncertain. However, Huhn expects profit-taking after gains. The discussion concludes with predictions of a continuing bullish market and rising prices due to looming demand. The belief is that despite potential roadblocks, the industry must address the increasing demand for nuclear energy, underscoring the robust health and growth of the nuclear industry.Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Unprecedented Dynamics3:22 - Inflation Adjusted Chart7:30 - New Uranium Projects10:42 - Mine Development Time15:00 - KazAtomProm Production17:30 - Risks Both Left/Right19:10 - Russia Imports/Sanctions22:40 - Financial Mkt. Impacts26:10 - Price Stability Importance31:00 - Nuclear Plant Restarts31:53 - Contracts & Deliveries36:26 - Chinese Market Impacts41:03 - Current Equity Conditions46:42 - Thoughts on Cameco48:28 - Wrap UpGuest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsiderYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UraniumInsiderJustin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter's subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
Welcome back to the show, Patrick Karim! To start, Patrick asks, "Why is gold going up if it's so useless?" He shows a yearly gold chart which reduces a lot of the noise and remarks that we have been consolidating above the 2012 neckline for some time and are in a period of purchasing power decline even more acute than that of the 1970s. The chart he shows compares housing priced in gold for a single family home and reveals that in terms of gold ounces, houses are actually flat or perhaps slightly cheaper, thereby destroying the illusion of value in terms of fiat currency. By contrasting commodities against each other, much more stable patterns can be seen.
Karim outlines the bullish outlook for uranium and highlights the past outstanding performance of Cameco, but emphasizes the importance of taking time to do personal research to interpret technical charts - emphasising that these can be spun in various ways with different time frames. He maintains that technicals can give one an edge, but it's necessary to do your own work.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Self Censorship4:05 - Gold Long-Term View10:52 - Gold The Bear Case17:37 - Housing in Gold21:03 - Fiat/Silver Vs. Crude23:20 - Different Perspectives27:33 - Heat Map & Sectors31:40 - Energy Vs. Tech34:30 - Uranium Outlook41:00 - Cameco Vs. Nasdaq44:26 - Technicals & Volume52:00 - Trends & Exits58:14 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold consolidating above the 2012 neckline, indicating increasing purchasing power.
Comparing commodities reveals more stable patterns.
Always do personal research to interpret technical charts.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
Tom welcomes back Precious Metals Broker Bill Holter to discuss the current state of the US economy, the precious metals sector, and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis. He points out how, as a result of higher rates, the available collateral is shrinking – rates are now back to 2001-2002 levels and an affordability crisis is rapidly unfolding in real estate, a large part of the economy. Although these consequences are not yet being priced into the stock market, the real economy will suffer. He then discusses the risk of default in the futures market for gold and silver, and doubts the validity of the US’ gold reserves; however, he does believe there is gold that could be mined in the US. Lastly, he explains why the government and the Fed will probably choose to take the easy way out by printing more money to cover obligations – this will ultimately destroy confidence and the dollar.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:34 – Debt Foundations
4:34 – Rates & Lag Time
7:06 – Risk & Protection
11:25 – Silver Vs. Gold
13:23 – Dollar Decline
15:40 – Revaluing Gold
17:17 – Failure to Deliver
18:40 – Currency War Risks
19:32 – C.B. Gold & Audits
23:38 – Inflate Debt Away
25:04 – Dollar Confidence
27:24 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Rates are now back to 2001-2002 levels and an affordability crisis is rapidly emerging in the real estate market.
- The US’ gold reserves are likely to be lower than stated, but gold can still be mined in the US.
- Printing money to cover obligations will ultimately destroy confidence and the dollar.
Guest Links:
Website: https://billholter.com
Email: bholter@hotmail.com
Bill Holter writes and is partners with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to the management of paper assets as he foresaw the Great Financial crisis coming. In retirement, he and his family moved to Costa Rica, where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. He was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.
Bill has retained a working relationship with Miles Franklin and can help with your precious metals needs, including transacting, shipping, storage, and even safe deposit boxes in non-bank vault facilities. Feel free to contact him with any of your questions or needs.
Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden from Macro Intelligence 2 Partners to discuss the inconsistencies between equities and bond markets. Markets don’t seem to be fully pricing in the probability of a recession. We are seeing hyperfinancialization, where equity markets are not necessarily correlating with the real economy. These Hyper Financial Markets are setting the patterns for the movements of bonds and equities. Those in power are concerned with how financial markets are performing rather than the real economy.
The demand for jobs remains, but is softening; however, we are not at the stage of job cuts yet. The question is can we have accelerating real growth without having to lose jobs.
Julian thinks that a higher inflationary period combined with increased bond yields is inevitable. We are in the war phase as we witnessed in the late 1960s. The lagging effects of a tightening economy will take some time to be seen fully. There are evident issues in the U.S. economy and these will manifest next year, especially if rates do not decrease. The wildcard here is fiscal policy and equities proping up the current situation. Eventually, equities will need to acknowledge the decreased growth but we are not there yet.
Julian questions if the Fed will follow the government’s wishes. Governments are demanding entitlements, like better wages and higher costs of living. The Fed will have to decide between raising inflation or following the governments demands.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Bonds & Equities
6:09 – Labor Markets
13:46 – Inflation Thesis
19:05 – Historic Comparisons
22:00 – Fed Response & Toolkit
29:59 – Fed Trial Balloon
32:10 – Debt Load & Outcomes
39:42 – Bonds, YCC, & Japan
42:54 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- We are seeing Hyper Financialization, where equity markets don’t correlate to the real economy.
- Julian believes we are entering a higher inflationary period combined with increasing bond yields, similar to the late 1960s.
- The Fed will soon have to decide between raising inflation or following the governments demands for entitlements.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
Website: https://mi2partners.com/
Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/
Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a research and market team to publish independent macroeconomic research ahead of market consensus. He has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in consulting, FICC sales, and hedge fund sales. He is a trusted advisor to many top money managers and is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets.
When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive and the Fed needs to rapidly tighten policy while slowing growth. In Europe, as the impact of Omicron fades, the ECB will need to raise rates, adding to pressure in global bond markets. Julian believes that there is a significant risk that we are entering a period of extended volatility. He is featured on many big media outlets discussing macro research topics driving prices in global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
Tom welcomes Sam Lawrie from Adams Bullion to the show. Sam discusses his background in the finance industry and the potential risks associated with leveraged trades. He describes leverage as like a Ferrari, it can be a lot of fun but you can also wrap it around a tree. He examines the consequences after the Swiss central bank broke the peg between the Swiss Franc and Euro, despite traders applying risk management techniques.
He reflects on the United States still acting as the centerpiece of the world’s financial market, and the possible risks of a major sell-off in treasuries, resulting in a potential global financial crisis. He acknowledges that rules in the financial market can be changed at a moment’s notice, another risk investors should be cautious of.
The long-term Keynesian policies by central banks have resulted in rising inflation which may ultimately lead to a lack of confidence in a country’s currency. Commodity-producing countries may be in a better position when compared to consuming countries, however, both Australia and Canada have seen issues in their asset bubbles and in particular there housing markets.
He believes silver is lagging due to dollar strength and has the potential to outperform at some point. Sam believes the Australian dollar is likely to remain weak, aiding in the value of gold in the currency.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Sam’s Background
6:18 – Black Swan Events
10:52 – Broker Failure Risk
13:12 – Forex Carry Trades
19:08 – Japan’s Approach
22:00 – Treasury Markets
24:10 – Banks & Failures
29:04 – Rates & Rebalancing
31:39 – End of the Road
35:55 – Inflation Outlook
39:22 – Gold Vs. Silver
42:53 – Metals Undervalued
45:27 – Incentives & Thieves
48:08 – Bullion & Activisim
49:49 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://adamsbullion.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/adamseconomics
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepubliccrusader
Sam has worked in the financial services industry for 5 years across CFD broking, algorithmic trading, equities analysis services and bullion dealing. He is an avid precious metals investor and advocate, having started his precious metals journey in 2018.
Sam has worked with thousands of clients over the years, teaching them about finance, economics, and precious metals, helping them to protect themselves financially. His experience in the bullion industry began in 2020, working at a major bullion dealer in Melbourne.
Sam has had a fascination with economics stretching back to when he was in high school, winning the school economics award during his final year. A memorable moment from this was when he asked his teacher why central banks set interest rates, rather than the free market. Sam pursued this interest further at Melbourne University, studying a Bachelor of Commerce with a double major in Finance and Economics.
Sam’s passion for the precious metals and everything that they represent has pushed him to work with John Adams to create Adams Bullion, combining Sam’s knowledge of the inner workings of the bullion industry with John’s superb economic analysis and political achievements to date, creating Australia’s most politically active bullion dealer.
Michael Pento returns to the show to discuss the bond market and the possibility of a recession. He believes we should experience an official recession by the end of the year, based on metrics other than just GDP that already show flat or declining activity. The recent actions the Fed took to boost banks by changing the Discount Window is similar to a very quiet bailout. This will allow banks to continue to lend recklessly. It appears Powell doesn’t know what he’s doing. Money supply should be determined by a tangible like gold so it can remain steady and only increase with economic activity.
Inflation is likely to come back and will be treated with the Fed re-targeting it’s inflation goals. This can result in the public losing credibility on the Fed. Furthermore, there is a risk of the U.S. gradually losing reserve currency status. Entitlement programs are estimated to reach 100% of government income by 2040, leading to a freefall economy. The only solution is a depression and a corrective period in which people can understand why it happened. Government will do its best to keep the party going though, which will destroy the dollar’s value.
Everything is looking increasingly like a banana republic and we aren’t headed towards more freedom. The Fed introducing its own cryptocurrency could increase control mechanisms and give it tremendous power. These are very real dangers.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:08 – Equities & Bond Outlook
6:16 – Fed Policy & Q.E.
9:40 – Japan & Bond Volatility
15:27 – Inflation Outlook & Targets
17:08 – Recession & Equities
20:53 – Deficits & Entitlements
23:32 – Untenable Choices
26:26 – Global Problems
28:15 – Sectors & Outcomes
32:20 – Investing Approach
35:38 – Collapse of Faith
37:18 – Freedoms & CBDCs
42:21 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
- Recent Fed actions point to an impending recession and have created a quiet bailout of the banking system.
- Inflation is likely to return and cause the value of the US Dollar to drop.
- Entitlements will reach 100% of government revenue by 2040 a mathematical impossibility.
- The Fed introducing a CBDC could give it tremendous power over the population with increased control mechanisms.
Guest Links:
Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore’s commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim’s sales network. He is the author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse” and has a weekly podcast called “The Mid-week Reality Check.”
Tom welcomes back Tim Price from Price Value Partners to discuss the issues the world now faces. He feels we are "standing on the edge of the debt precipice." Many countries are mired in heavy debt, thus leaving three options; maintain the servicing of existing debt, restructure the debt (essentially defaulting), or the usual way out - inflating the debt away. It comes as no surprise that inflation is front and center. Although, metrics around inflation are often distorted, leading many to believe it is much higher than acknowledged. The Fed's next developments may be to pivot, even with the past intention to raise rates further. If hard decisions had been taken after 2008, many of these issues may have been avoided. Alas, the only way out now appears to be more printing, risking the currency's destruction.
Tim then moves onto discussing the risks posed by Japan and how it differs from other Western countries, as well as the Biden administration and their policy drift. Globally, this has eroded trust in the financial integrity of the United States.
Inflation is typically linked to excessive money printing and supply, thus rendering rates mostly irrelevant. We are likely close to some sort of systemic crisis thus making assets, such as gold, the free market fix. No entity can fix these problems; what cannot go on forever eventually won't.
The discussion turns to ESG and its effects on politics and finance. ESG tends to be powered by large institutions, like Blackrock, but now there appears to be a reversal of these policies. Tim examines the benefits of holding gold in this environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - A Debt Precipice1:52 - Three Debt Choices3:56 - Pivots & Rates7:02 - Japan & Contagion Risks10:38 - BRICS Rising & Inflation14:35 - Financial Sins18:08 - State of the Markets22:46 - Trend Following Funds28:07 - Charts & Finding Value30:57 - Historical Comparisons34:52 - ESG & Mkt. Distortions38:14 - Shifting Narratives43:58 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Three options exist for dealing with debt - servicing, restructuring, or inflation.
ESG policies are being reversed, with gold becoming the preferred asset to hold in this environment.
Rising debt and excessive money printing has pushed us close to a systemic crisis - no entity can fix this.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TimPrice1969Podcast: https://www.sotmpodcast.com/Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentaryHis Book: https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website.
Geoff Blanning, a former investment manager, is the author of the white paper “Put Tools Away Now, Please” and is co-producer of the Cobden Center documentary film “Ex Nihilo, The Truth About Money”. The objective of the film was to make the complex world of finance accessible to the average person and educate the public on the monetary system. He aims to persuade politicians to make changes to the UK's Bank of England and stem out the overwhelming cost of living squeeze.
The Cobden Centre's view is to create sustainable growth by having an “honest money” that preserves its purchasing power across generations. This requires a constrained central bank balance sheet, preventing chronic inflation. The expansion of the balance sheet has led to money being pumped into sectors such as property and financial which has led to a disparity of money and resources between sectors.
Geoff talks about the effects of financial sector speculation and how it misallocates labour and resources. He mentions the British government's target to combat inflation and mentions cryptocurrency as an example of misallocated resources. He identifies possible solutions such as education and political change, and notes that it will take a crisis to push this change in the right direction. He also explains the idea of 'monetary socialism' and how the interest rate should be set by the market for a more sustainable and less volatile monetary system.
A link to The film and further information is available at the links in the description below. The film is available for free on YouTube, and people with little or no background in finance have expressed a good reception to it. Geoff wishes to spread the film to the financial sector and make inroads, as many people do not understand the importance of money.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Documentary1:20 - Trailer4:18 - Understanding Money6:08 - Inspiration8:40 - Challenges Producing12:04 - The Film's Reception13:20 - Honest Money & Growth16:10 - CPI Growth/M4 in U.K.19:05 - Cantillon Effect20:24 - Impacts of Cheap Money22:05 - Crypto Concerns22:38 - Fighting Inflation23:58 - Interviews with Bankers25:36 - Possible Solutions?30:37 - Monetary Socialism32:00 - Roadblocks to Change?34:52 - Reception & Objectives36:48 - Wrap Up
Guest/Documentary Links:Film: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cSyctENy3AWebsite: https://www.honestmoneyinitiative.com/Website: https://www.cobdencentre.org/
Geoff Blanning is a former Investment Manager and Member of the Group Management Committee at Schroders Plc, author of "Put the tools away now, please" (2021) and Co-Producer of "Ex Nihilo: The Truth About Money", a Cobden Centre documentary film, which exposes the fundamental flaws at the heart of our monetary system.
Welcome back to the show, Brian Hirschman, Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership, also known as the “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund.” Brian explains how many investors are unaware of how to value gold in comparison to other assets. He details a methodology for analyzing the gold price over long periods and notes that it is currently below the fifty year average, which could cause gold to skyrocket in the coming years. Brian outlines why gold did so well during the inflationary period of the 1970s, as it is the only asset with no counterparty risk.
The lack of appreciation for gold may be due to bond investors remaining confident in their inflation expectations, but if that changes, gold will rise. High inflation can be caused by excessive debt, which is a problem for the United States and other Western nations, and Brian references the British Empire’s debt to GDP ratio and eventual default. Japan’s approach is different, but their situation is precarious as well, with Japanese depositors now getting negative returns when adjusted for inflation. This could lead to depositors investing elsewhere to seek returns, which could be a big problem for the Bank of Japan.
Brian also discusses how global bubbles are worsening, and why we could see multiple collapses all at once. He gives some targets for where gold and the miners could head as a result, and explains why the Mining ETFs and equities have largely not kept up with the gold price. He notes that A.I. will likely not be the panacea to get us out of the coming crisis, and that demographics are contributing to entitlement problems and a general decline in the labor force, which is not good for GDP.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Perspectives & Time5:40 - Golds Recent Performance8:10 - Inflation Causes & Effects12:30 - Debt & Avoiding Default20:10 - Capital Control Contagion25:00 - Cures & Causation28:00 - Growing Global Bubbles37:30 - Gold Price Target39:30 - Resource Valuations41:20 - GDXJ Performance43:10 - A.I. & Inevitable Crisis45:30 - Demographic Issues46:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold is currently trading below its fifty year average, making it a potential investment opportunity.
High inflation caused by excessive debt could lead to a gold surge.
Global bubbles, demographics, and A.I. could all contribute to a coming crisis.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCWebsite: https://www.hcapital.llc
Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk.
Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments.
Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager.
Tom welcomes Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report back to the show to discuss metals and bank involvement. Hemke talks about how certain entities are able to manipulate prices and make profits, and how the Commitment of Traders Report reveals these positions. He also discusses the possibility of another short squeeze and how this could impact prices. He then explains why the Commitment of Traders Report is not an ideal trading tool, and breaks down his strategy for making decisions regarding the metals market.
Craig then moves on to discuss the economy between the US and Japan, namely the Bank of Japan and the US Dollar. He talks about how the monetary policies of both countries are affecting global markets, and goes on to discuss how the dollar index is being affected. Craig explains why August is always a slow month for trading and speaks on the dangers of servicing the massive US's debt.
He also talks about the current and future situation with the Federal Reserve, noting that the jobs report in August could be underwhelming and other factors that will affect Jerome Powell's rate decisions. Craig then suggests that gold prices should start trending upwards in September and rally in October/November. Finally, he encourages patience and believes that the doldrums should end soon.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - COT Reports & Trades5:44 - Bi-Manipulation13:45 - Summer Volume Signals16:53 - DXY Levels & Psychology20:49 - Dollar/Yen & BOJ25:52 - Fed, Debt & Deficits28:39 - Magnitude of Problems32:30 - Mortgage Rates & Lags36:50 - 70+ Year Mortgages38:10 - Silver Supply Deficits41:00 - Jobs Report & Numbers47:36 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Craig explains how large entities manipulate the commodities market.
His strategy of identifying large speculators positions can help predict price rallies.
He suggests that gold prices will rally in October and November due to current positioning and COT reports.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe
Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets."
Tom welcomes back Petroleum Engineer and Analyst Michael Lynch to discuss the big movers in the silver market. He provides diagrams of how metals flow from the market to the retail level, and mentions how the United States Mint is legally required to meet the public's demand for gold and silver Eagles, though not other mint products.
Michael covers the costs for producing Silver Eagles, as well as how the premiums have changed lately. He believes the Mint's production issue is due, in part, to a lack of available blanks from supplier mints such as Sunshine Mint, which have experienced labor shortages and production challenges. He believes that Blackrock's Ishares SLV Trust is being used to heavily influence the market, keeping everyone happy but the retail buyers.
Michael suggests the Mint could solve its problems by bringing blank production in-house; this would give them more flexibility with production. He also suggests silver stackers consider selling ASE's and buying larger bars in order to minimize premiums and get more ounces.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:15 - U.S. Mint Operations5:00 - Silver Eagle Sales6:44 - ASE Costs & Premiums10:38 - Current Situation13:46 - Supply Dysfunction19:30 - Premium Overview24:33 - Blackrock & IShares SLV28:54 - A-Mark Share Prices33:39 - ASE Premium Dynamics38:15 - Conclusions48:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The Mint has been unable to meet demand due to alleged production issues with blanks, but some suggest Blackrock is manipulating the market through Ishares SLV Trust.
Silver stackers can avoid premiums by buying larger bars instead of Silver Eagles.
A solution to the Mint's shortage would be to bring production in-house, giving them more production flexibility.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.reddit.com/user/Ditch_the_DeepState/submitted/Twitter: https://twitter.com/DtDS_WSSSubstack: https://econanalytics.substack.com
Michael Lynch has a background as a Petroleum Engineer and developed a keen interest in the history of money as a result of witnessing the collapse of the Indonesian currency. This interest has brought him to study the behavior of the Comex, JP Morgan, and SLV paper contracts.
Tom welcomes firebrand Chris Irons back to the show to discuss the Fed and the overall status of the financial system.
Chris notes that inflation and the Fed are topics that the media tends to ignore. The two percent inflation target is an arbitrary figure, and it serves as a way for the Fed to steal from consumers without them realizing. Inflation is profoundly detrimental as it continuously lowers one's purchasing power without them noticing. We should not be raising the debt ceiling as it does nothing to address our bad habits, and address our reckless behavior.
Chris also discusses the recent rating downgrade by Fitch, which signals a troublesome time ahead for U.S. sovereign debt. Government officials are voicing their complaints about the downgrade, but none of them seem to be thinking about fiscal responsibility.
Chris often notices when the signal for a market top or bottom appears, as the mainstream media offers contradicting headlines. Everyone believes the Fed will be successful in controlling inflation while they are oblivious to the potential deleveraging event. Hence, when the investment community aggressively sells off, he sees it as an opportunity to go all in on precious metals.
Turning his attention to China, he remains concerned about increasing tensions around Taiwan. He wonders how the US would respond, given their current financial state.
Lastly, he goes over the various misleading narratives surrounding Covid treatment that have now been debunked.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Inflation & the Fed7:43 - Fitch Credit Rating16:37 - The Confidence Map20:00 - Michael Burry Puts23:30 - Bad News is Good26:40 - The Equity Bull Case28:00 - Chinese Credit Crunch34:07 - Collapsing Narratives49:37 - Analysis & Perspectives55:30 - Perspectives & Censorship56:17 - Predictive Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The two percent inflation target set by the Fed is an arbitrary figure used to steal from consumers.
The downgrade by Fitch implies a looming economic crisis, but government officials are not addressing fiscal responsibility.
The investment community will aggressively sell off when the deleveraging event comes, providing an opportunity to go all in on precious metals.
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media's ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests.
Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to the show to discuss the markets, the Fed, and the concept of fiscal dominance. Lyn explains that the unusual phenomenon of budget deficits widening despite low unemployment since 2016-2017 is largely due to demographics, leading to the concept of fiscal dominance where large deficits and high public debts can override monetary policy. She also talks about the two causes of inflation and the different tools used to combat them, such as fixing supply side bottlenecks, addressing what is causing the elevated rate of money supply growth, and looking at the long-term growth rate of truly scarce goods and services.
She discusses the different ways in which the injection of a trillion dollars into the economy would affect price and asset inflation. Lyn explains that if the money is given to the top 100 wealthiest people, the effect will likely be asset price inflation, whereas if it is distributed to the bottom 50% of society, there will be more consumer price inflation. The two also discuss the challenge of increasing GDP and productivity without affecting the CPI, and Lyn suggests investing in scarce assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and high-value properties.
Lyn then explains the current Federal Reserve policy of quantitative tightening, and how it has delayed a recession. She compares the US to Australia and Canada, explaining how in the US most consumer debt is fixed rate, and in Australia and Canada it is more variable rate. Lastly, she talks about the idea of reshoring manufacturing to the U.S. and how this could drive inflation, and the implications of the peak of shale oil production in the US, and how this could affect any manufacturing reshoring effort.
Lyn also talks about her forthcoming book, "Broken Money," which covers the development of money, the current financial system, and the pros and cons of various types of money. She believes that Bitcoin is a good investment for the next two years, due to the tight supply-side dynamics and economic re-acceleration that may take place. Ultimately, she emphasizes the importance of remaining flexible and humble in the face of complex markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Fiscal Dominance5:57 - Two Inflation Causes10:03 - Inflation Management15:40 - Inflation Definitions19:14 - Stimulus Effects21:44 - Historic Analogues24:50 - Rates & High Debt/GDP29:53 - Australia & Canada33:48 - Debt Servicing & Maturity40:54 - Delayed Recession?47:10 - China & West Manufacturing54:58 - Peak Shale Energy59:00 - Money Supply & Gold1:04:36 - Gurus & Complex Markets1:06:38 - New Book & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Lyn Alden explains that deficits and public debt can override monetary policy, leading to the concept of fiscal dominance.
Lyn discusses the challenge of increasing GDP and productivity without affecting the CPI, and suggests investing in scarce assets.
She believes that Bitcoin is a good investment for the next two years, due to the tight supply-side dynamics and economic re-acceleration.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public...
Tom welcomes back Gary Savage to the show. Gary is a retired entrepreneur, investor, and founder of Smart Money Tracker Premium.
Gary discusses how liquidity moves through the system. He believes the summer rally in the stock market was driven by liquidity given to the banks, which pushed into the tech sector. Equities are still at risk of a significant decline. He also believes the Federal Reserve will be forced to print more liquidity if the banks make lower lows, which will then cause a second phase of inflation and possibly a recession.
Inflation is inevitable in the coming months, according to Gary, and the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes for the rest of the year. He explains that liquidity will continue to move from overvalued assets like stocks to undervalued assets like commodities, and that the Fed will try to suppress gold and other metals, but will have less and less success. He believes gold is currently in the advancing phase of a new eight-year cycle and will likely break out above its all-time highs before long.
Gary is confident that the end of 2022 marks the eight-year cycle low in gold, and he believes that silver is currently undervalued and a great buy. He believes the dollar has topped in its secular bull market and has started a secular bear market, which will be a tailwind for gold and other commodities. He also believes a stock market correction will not be as severe as the crash in 1987, but may cause a mini-crash.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Liquidity & Rates2:20 - Bank Crisis Over?4:50 - Free Lunch & Inflation7:20 - Commodities & Energy12:13 - Gold Price & Breakout15:09 - Gold Charts & Cycles18:50 - Silver Thoughts21:10 - Gold 8-Year Cycle23:55 - Dollar Cycles & Chart29:53 - Everything Sell-Off?31:13 - Watch the Banks32:58 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary believes the Fed will be forced to print more liquidity to prevent a deflationary collapse, leading to a second phase of inflation.-He is confident that gold will break out above its all-time high of $2090 in the near future.
He advises people to diversify their investments with gold and silver, as he believes the dollar has topped and started a secular bear market.
Guest LinksBlog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.
Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary's in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
Tom welcomes back Michael Piepenburg Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management to the show.
Matt discusses the current state of the US economy and the potential risks developing. He argues that the Federal Reserve's policy of increasing interest rates and reducing the balance sheet has weakened the dollar and created distrust among emerging markets and developing economies. He suggested that investors wait until the market tanks before buying as the Fed will only pivot then. He also pointed out the $1.85 trillion that the Treasury announced it will borrow by the end of the year and how this could lead to a credit contraction and a credit crisis. He believes that the only solution to the US government's debt situation is to increase money supply through printing more money, which will lead inevitably to further inflation.
Matt also discussed the labor market and CPI stats and how they may be misleading. He believes that the labor data is specious and disingenuous, as it ignores people who have stopped looking for jobs and includes people with multiple jobs. He believes that de-dollarization is already happening, but it won't happen overnight. He emphasizes the importance of keeping a level head while others are losing theirs and believes that the debt levels of the US are already creating serious problems, and that these can only be solved by having more informed people in positions of power.
Matt believes the Federal Reserve's attempts to prevent inflation will ultimately end in inflation and suggests that investors protect their purchasing power. He also warns that politicians are unlikely to win an election by advocating for austerity, higher taxes, and a period of recession.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Centralization & Debt8:21 - Bank Failures & CBDC13:39 - Banks & Davos Leaders18:45 - Hyperfinancialization23:25 - Elections & Fed Policy30:47 - Japanese Carry Trade35:39 - Rates & Reserve Currency41:31 - Fed Pivot & Equities45:24 - Signs of Recession48:47 - The Invisible Tax54:12 - Money Printing & CPI57:33 - Growth & Labor Markets1:00:37 - BRICS Summit Thoughts1:09:19 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The US economy is facing serious risk due to the Federal Reserve's policy of increasing interest rates while reducing the balance sheet.
Labor market and CPI stats may be misleading and de-dollarization is already happening.
The only way out of the current mess is to have more informed people in positions of power.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerlandWebsite: https://goldswitzerland.com/Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
Bob begins the conversation by discussing the collapse of premiums and lack of sentiment in the market causing buyers to become disillusioned. Prices are decreasing across the board, making production upgrades increasingly difficult. The US Mint is not supposed to produce profit, however, large merchants such as APMEX are still charging premiums to small buyers.
Steve St. Angelo explains how the gold and silver markets have transformed over the past twenty years. ETFs now hold a lot of silver and industrial demand is very low. It's mainly institutional demand driving the price and when that shifts it will move. Blackrock is the largest holder of PSLV.
Steve believes we are heading towards an energy cliff that will cause inflation. Stocks, bonds, and real estate may fall affecting institutions who will invest in alternatives. Silver is on sale around the twenty mark according to Bob. Steve notes that the dynamics in the metal production industry are rapidly changing.
Jaime Carrasco explains why he likes silver, noting price is correcting the imbalance between silver and copper. The US dollar will be weak due to a reduction in trade associated with the BRICS objectives. This will remove the manipulation of gold and silver. Steve later discusses the energy problems looming.
Steve St. Angelo - Independent Researcher and Publisher of the SRSrocco ReportWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Jaime Carrasco - Portfolio Manager at Canaccord Genuity IncTwitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: Canaccord Genuity: https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/
Alasdair Macleod believes that the US dollar is heading towards a major financial crisis due to its unsustainable debt trap, contraction of bank credit and rising interest rates. He believes that Russia and China are behind the destabilization of the US dollar as a global currency and are attempting to introduce a new single, gold-backed trade settlement currency, which the enlarged BRICS membership could potentially use. This currency does not include any retailers yet, but those involved in international trade transactions would need to use it. McLeod believes that the US government has been sending Henry Kissinger and Janet Yellen to convince China to not abandon the US dollar, as the consequences would be immense. However, he still believes that the majority of BRICS members will ultimately support this new currency in order to improve monetary stability and create a stabilising effect on global markets.
Alasdair believes that the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the US sanctions against Russia have been the catalysts for the introduction of a gold-backed currency. He believes that a financial war similar to a nuclear war is brewing due to the shift from fiat currency to gold, and the contraction in bank credit will result in a decrease in the nominal GDP of countries. To counteract this, and protect itself, Russia and China have been attempting to support poor countries in order to keep them away from Western control.
Lastly, he discusses the historic situation of the Weimar Republic's financial collapse, which saw those with gold profit handsomely. He concludes that the only solution for the Russian economy was to move forward with the “financial war” which he predicts will happen at the Johannesburg BRICS summit.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - BRICS Meeting & The Dollar13:47 - China-Yellen Meeting15:00 - Gold & Global Trade19:03 - BRICS & SCO (Asia)26:55 - Russia & Commodities33:10 - Western Fiat & History36:47 - Western Ignorance40:54 - Foreign Held Debt43:37 - Bank Credit & Money Supply50:34 - Gold & Financial Wars55:15 - Golden Consequences1:02:32 - Gold in a Crisis1:05:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
BRICS is proposing a gold-backed currency as a trade settlement system to reduce interest rates and increase monetary stability.
The US has sent Henry Kissinger to try to convince the Chinese to abandon the proposed currency.
Moving away from the dollar and backing it up with gold could create a financial war.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/Article: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/why-the-dollar-is-finished
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
Doug Casey, who needs no introduction, is welcomed back to the show once more. Doug is a prominent anarcho-capitalist philosopher, speculator, and best-selling author, and today he talks about the concept of anarcho-capitalism and what led him to this belief system. As Ayn Rand was an influential factor in taking him to this moral and economic standpoint, he soon recognized that she hadn't gone far enough and stumbled across the 'Market for Liberty'. According to Doug, this is an explanation of society without government, and his main point is that 'politics is the practical application of ethics in a society.' In addition, he argues that the state itself is evil, destructive and redundant; instead, it is the real enemy that needs to be battled, not just replacing 'bad guys' in office.
Continuing, Doug suggests that the majority of laws are silly and harmful, as they are designed solely for the benefit of those who create them. To his mind, the key principle should be to 'do as thou wilt, but be prepared for the ensuing consequences' – with a collective focus on taking responsibility.
Transitioning on, Doug remarks on how the general public view the state as some sort of 'saviour of the masses'; a faith-based construct. Furthermore, he states that there has been a noticeably declining morality throughout the Western world, which is indicative of a coming catastrophic event. Doug also covers his book series, and how the protagonist, Charles Knight, develops and shifts as time passes.
Not to be forgotten, Doug brings to light how these days, it's hard to find anyone that is genuinely interested in anything remotely existential – noting how the public are mainly focused on trivial affairs and think that the 'Federal Reserve' is some sort of omnipotent power. Therefore, he emphasizes how novels offer an opportunity to delve deep into topics that are usually a little too tricky and challenging for everyday conversation.
Talking Points From This Episode
Why politics is inherently immoral and why laws and terms like legal or illegal have little to do with ethics.
The 'Market for Liberty' is an explanation of a society without a government, and politics is the practical application of ethics in a society.
How novels provide a useful platform to explore topics that are usually too difficult to discuss in an everyday context.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Laws & Morality5:46 - Religion & Politics13:14 - The State - Religion15:05 - Power Creep & Coercion20:28 - Some Novel Ideas29:26 - Philosophy Today30:13 - Personal Responsibility32:12 - The Attention Economy34:06 - Writing From Experience?36:02 - Exceptionalism & Decline37:26 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQWebsite: https://internationalman.com/Amazon Books: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhc
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on "rational speculation," especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug's most recent book, "Assassin," can be found on Amazon.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you're most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey's Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.
Bob Moriarty, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot in Vietnam and founder of 321 Gold and 321 Energy, shares his insight on the recent protests in France, which he believes is a result of the EU's unlimited immigration policy, rising inflation, and a worldwide revolution due to governments destroying the middle class. He is highly critical of the US' involvement in Ukraine, claiming they are responsible for the energy crisis, and that the US' strategy of involving other countries such as Norway and Poland is a smokescreen.
Bob then briefly recalls his experience in the Vietnam War and discusses the lack of a cohesive strategy when it comes to military operations run by the CIA. He criticizes Joe Biden and Hunter Biden for their involvement in the bribery of Burisma and Ukraine. He believes that the US' losing streak in wars in the Middle East has led to BRICS Nations creating plans of their own, and warns that the $300 trillion in debt will not be paid. He goes on to explain the use of sentiment indicators, cautioning investors to be careful when investing in commodities.
Finally, Bob touches on his adventures in Australia and discusses the global warming narrative, which he believes to be incorrect. Bob believes that the only way to protect the stability of the country and ensure people’s trust in the system is for governments to return to an honest money system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:26 - French Protests7:48 - Sanctions & Suicide9:20 - Nordstream & Wars12:08 - Winter in Europe18:15 - Escalation Risks23:54 - BRICS & New Currency30:37 - Sentiment & Capital38:29 - Rates & The Next Crisis40:28 - Miners & Explorers43:09 - Mining Stories53:00 - Gold & Dollars54:33 - Warming Narratives57:37 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Bob believes the recent protests in France stem from Europe’s unlimited immigration policy, resulting in rising inflation and a lack of trust in the financial system.
Bob is critical of the US’ involvement in the war in Ukraine and its implications for energy costs and availability in Europe.
Bob suggests that the only way out of the current energy and financial crisis is to return to an honest money system.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3Dr. John Clauser (Physicist): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-WoobS7jtw
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Welcome back our little green chicken friend, otherwise known as Doomberg. Doomberg talks about their habit of doom-scrolling - searching for the next area of impending disaster. Defensive pessimism is discussed in relation to being prepared. With so much 'noise' out there, they have to find a way to stand out, and have opted for writing detailed pieces, which are distributed through a subscription model.
The rise of the Degrowth Movement, which is incongruent with capitalism and efficiency, is an example of how 'green is the new red'. This 'programmed socialism' wants to shrink the economy, as can be seen at the Degrowth conference, where 18 hours of intense debates present ideas like blackouts being intentionally accepted as normal and beneficial. The levels of propoganda are staggering. We are slowly heading towards a centralized, Maoist/Stalinesque level of control.
The resistance against nuclear energy continues, despite the two being worlds apart. Millions of people live near hydroelectric dams without too much concern for safety; however, nuclear is viewed on a completely different level. Thankfully, this trend is changing, and nuclear technology is a necessary component for providing cheap, reliable power. A great example of this is Ontario, which has repealed its inefficient green energy policy to embrace nuclear energy. Canada is well-equipped with the knowledge and skills to become a world leader in this field.
Europe was lucky last winter, but this winter may be different, as they take a lot of risks. Wind generation is generally experimental and difficult to implement on a large-scale, due to failure rates which have been higher than expected.
Finally, Doomy considers the importance of having a second passport and financial diversification.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Pivotal Moments?6:22 - The Degrowth Movement11:57 - Alien Concepts14:11 - Resistance to Nuclear18:06 - Pitching Nuclear RFK20:55 - Ontario & Nuclear24:55 - Renewables & Politics28:54 - European Gas Reserves30:04 - Wind Energy & Failures33:30 - Practical Renewables35:03 - EROI & Nuclear?36:53 - The Hydrogen Cycle40:52 - Heat Pump Mandates42:18 - BRICS & New Currency45:19 - Doomberg's Role47:56 - A Second Passport?50:05 - Bank Risk & Politics55:33 - Crypto & Energy58:55 - The Bonus Question1:00:36 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Doom scrolling is searching for the next area of impending disaster, and Doomberg is fighting through the noise with detailed pieces distributed in a subscription model.
How the Degrowth movement is pushing Western nations towards programmed socialism.
Nuclear energy has advantages but has been met with a lot of resistance, but luckily, some areas like Ontario are continuing to embrace it.
Financial diversification and having a second passport are key elements in being financially prepared for disasters.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.comBeyondGrowth - AKA DeGrowth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Jpe4HVGJsI
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Tom welcomes Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report back on the show. Steve began buying silver in 2002, due to worries of fiat currency debasement and debt. As he delved deeper into the metal's market, he started questioning certain aspects such as the cost of production, including energy, materials and labor. However, the economics profession largely disregards the energy cost factor and sees the growth as continuous. When energy scarcity occurs thought, the markets could drastically change. Most investors today are not prepared for it.
Thermodynamics is another key factor in energy consumption, as the laws of physics will come into play and create peaks. This typically results in a lack of real growth or maybe even civilizational decline due to exceeding the carrying capacity of resources. At present, unearthed silver mining's all-in cost lies between $21 and $22, and around $1550 for gold mines. Institutions have moved to the ETF sector of the precious metals, and if we go through economic fragility and stagflation, more entities (such as Blackrock, the biggest holder in the PSLV), will likely become involved.
Within the last month, debt and money supply have commented the market jump in S&P 500 and the equity sector. Steve believes that it is likely to face a correction in the near future. In terms of energy, oil prices could increase later this year due to demand, and this will translate into inflation in food and consumer prices. Apart from that, geopolitical risks could only make matters worse. Recently, Europe managed to survive the winter with the fortunate help of green energy; nevertheless, their energy problems are still present and expensive. This winter could be different.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Precious Metals & Energy2:57 - Assume a Can-Opener4:46 - Metals Production Costs6:09 - Future PM Scenarios8:25 - Growth & Wealth Protection11:13 - Silver Demand & Deficits14:40 - Institutional Demand?17:30 - Sentiment & Smart Money20:24 - Defining Stagflation22:10 - Recessions & Oil Price24:34 - Energy Push Inflation26:00 - Two Stages - Energy Cliff29:05 - Europe & Gas Inventories32:58 - Recessionary Impacts38:53 - Rig Counts & Financing41:28 - Estimated Oil Reserves?44:48 - SPR Release Thoughts47:40 - Commercial COT Positions49:30 - Rates, EROI & Debt Servicing51:33 - Blackrock & Potential Dynamics53:20 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Institutional investors have surged into precious metals ETFs to shield wealth from financial fragility.
Oil prices could increase, driving inflation in food and consumer prices.
Rig counts and EROI could determine the success of energy reserves - with a potential energy cliff looming ahead.
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
You can find many of Steve's articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, PMBull, Deviantinvestor, PMBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.
Christopher Grove, President and Director of Commerce Resources, returns to the show as an expert on the rare earth element market. Electric motors are just one of the many users of rare earth magnets. China accounts for 70% of mining production and 85% of global processing capacity may be attempting to accumulate various rare earth projects around the world, leading to suggestions of manipulation. After a September 2010 incident between a Chinese fishing vessel and Japanese coast guard ships, China retaliated by cutting off supply of metals to Japan, prompting foreign companies to set up manufacturing within China to take advantage of the metals; this consequently made China the world's dominant magnet manufacturer.
The largest chip manufacturers are in Taiwan and, due to U.S. involvement, China is considering restricting exports of gallium and germanium; these two metals are key for semiconductor production. Despite no longer being able to internally source enough rare earth elements, China is still the largest processor, allowing them to become a net importer while maintaining their market position. Monazite, a mineral feedstock containing other key rare earth elements, is another area of interest for Christopher. With China being an enormous importer of mineral sands, slightly radioactive in nature, they take advantage of the fact that these sands aren't being restricted like in other countries.
Christopher is excited to watch the increasing demand for niobium-oxide, a material useful in battery manufacturing. He also explains some extraction methods--such as the use of solvents--and how technology is improving in an effort to make the process cheaper, less dangerous, and more eco-friendly.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Rare Earth Markets4:59 - Chinese Dominance9:44 - Japanese Dispute14:12 - Gallium & Germanium16:39 - Other Market Factors19:50 - Processing & Importing22:10 - Monazite Mineral Sand26:19 - Juniors & Economics27:40 - Battery Manufacturing30:42 - New Technology & Methods36:10 - Concluding Thoughts37:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
China dominates the rare earth market and has shown a willingness to retaliate against other countries to maintain their position.
China imports large quantities of monazite from mineral sands, which are not as strictly regulated as in other countries.
New extraction methods make rare earth extraction cheaper, safer, and more environmentally friendly, and there is an increasing demand for niobium-oxide for battery production.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescceWebsite: https://commerceresources.com/
Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.
Tom welcomes Francis Hunt, the founder of The Market Sniper, back to the show. Francis talks about why inflation has not been "cured" yet; it looks better only because it is being compared to previous numbers and basing effects. Year-on-year effects have decreased, but the consumer is still taking a hit. The declining dollar and prices is an indication that inflation will likely surge soon.
Francis then goes on to discuss the five trillion dollar fulcrum between the dollar and the Euro and how fiat will slosh into the Euro for a while, with a small amount flowing into gold. He also compares gold to a number of different currencies, with the US dollar particularly losing a lot of ground against commodity nations like Mexico.
Francis believes the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further, resulting in a dollar spike. However, this would be a very volatile period and he advises traders to focus on gold, silver, and perhaps eventually the dollar. According to him, the Fed is creating greater crises by creating more volatility rather than stability.
Lastly, Francis explains the benefits of the HVF method and why he focuses primarily on leading indicators.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Inflation Outlook9:44 - The Next Crisis?11:14 - Dollar Charts14:29 - Euro/USD Chart16:00 - Gold Vs. Currencies21:22 - Commodity Nations26:43 - Bonds US/China/Yen28:33 - Dollar Scenarios32:40 - Gold/Silver Ratio34:50 - Silver Chart37:03 - Ripple Call & BTC44:23 - HVF Technical Methods48:57 - A.I. Trading53:18 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The US dollar has been dropping against commodity nations like Mexico, indicating higher inflation in the near future.
Francis advises traders to focus on gold, silver, and the dollar during a period of high volatility created by increased interest rates.
The HVF method and the advantages of focusing on leading indicators.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
David Brady, CEO and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders, is welcomed back to discuss what capitulation will look like in this environment. He states that typically, a large increase in volume can be seen as the price is falling to a low, which can indicate that a low is in. Additionally, a gap down followed by a move upwards is another indication of capitulation. We haven't seen a meltdown in employment and payroll numbers in the past year, however, the latest numbers came in just below expectations and then gold and silver saw a surge. Brady believes that we are near the bottom, as long as support holds and the risk-reward remains dramatically skewed to the upside.
Bank of America has a big short position on gold, while JP Morgan has a smaller position but is long. Everything else with the metals is looking promising. Brady suggests acting contrary to the markets, as emotions can be the death of wealth. It is important to maintain an analytical approach to markets.
Brady argues that the Fed should be more concerned with deflation, instead they are considering further rate hikes. The peak in PPI was 9.2% a year ago, which has now fallen well below 3%. He believes the PPI is a much cleaner statistic than the CPI. Brady believes that gold is sniffing out that rate hikes are already priced in and perhaps we will get one more price hike. He expects bank failures are almost certain in this environment.
Brady also suggests that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will be rolled out along with digital identification and universal basic income. He believes that this new money will be spent on existing goods and services, which will only create more problems and more inflation. In that environment, gold and silver prices will explode, while other asset bubbles burst.
He believes Canadian Banks may be vulnerable, with the exception of the large too big to fail, CIBC and RBC. The housing market has been spectacular, with the lowest affordability and highest debt to personal income, creating a potential disaster.
Brady suggests miners may be cheap soon relative to the metals, and if they are underperforming, it is a great buying opportunity. He also cautions that when everything is going to hell for government finances, they will do anything to keep the ship afloat, including potentially nationalizing mines and other industries.
He believes that the West's implementation of CBDC systems will fail because they will still be fiat based. The BRICS version however is likely to be tied in some fashion to commodities.
Brady's advice is to focus on miners in North America and wait for confirmation of the lows. He stresses not to get caught in the weeds, as the reward potential is high, and the train is leaving the station soon.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Sentiment & Capitulation7:16 - Banks & COT Positioning8:09 - Emotion and Wealth14:53 - Exiting at the Top17:15 - Fed & Deflation20:38 - Feds Path Forward?30:03 - Banks in Canada32:52 - Mortgage Terms & Collapse35:56 - Miners Underperformance42:15 - Nationalization Risks44:05 - BRICS Meeting Thoughts51:58 - Concluding Thoughts54:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Act contrary to the markets in order to maintain an analytical approach and maximize reward potential.
He believes Central Bank Digital Currencies will be rolled out soon, leading to the potential for higher gold and silver prices.
Brady suggests focusing on miners in North America and waiting for confirmation of the lows.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writersSilver Chartist: https://silverchartist.comFund Website: https://4779Capital.com
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM an...
Tom welcomes Michael Singleton to the show. Michael is senior analyst at Invictus. Mike explains their approach to the financial markets and business cycles, which are broken down into growth cycle, inflation cycle, and policy cycle. He believes the current inflationary picture is near its end but wage growth is still high. Mike shares that the stock market has the highest correlation to the ISM manufacturing PMI, and that it's important to pay attention to market history and study cycles for guidance.
Mike then discusses the effects of rate hikes on corporate debt and housing markets. He states that corporate debt is lower than it was during COVID, but higher than 2007. He further explains that banks are less willing to lend and borrowers are not interested due to high interest rates, which could indicate a credit contraction. In the housing market, the lack of existing home inventory is pushing buyers to new homes, but this is not a healthy dynamic for the economy. Mike explains the base effects of inflation, which have been a tailwind recently but may become a headwind in the near future.
Mike also discusses the commodities market, which is a reflationary exposure responding best to economic growth and inflation. He breaks commodities down into four categories: energy commodities, industrial metals, agricultural commodities, and precious metals. Mike suggests that gold should be bought when the Fed stops hiking or starts cutting interest rates, and cash is an attractive option with yields of 5-5.5% in a slowing economic environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Three Economic Cycles5:27 - Fed & Business Cycle6:51 - Market Correlations10:12 - Corporate Lending15:04 - Housing Markets17:48 - Inflation Headwinds20:12 - Fed Rates & Pause22:30 - Yield Curve Signals25:02 - The "Recovery"27:14 - Commodities33:24 - Gold - Inflation Hedge?34:36 - Cash & Treasuries35:36 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Commodities can be broken down into four categories: energy commodities, industrial metals, agricultural commodities, and precious metals.Oil is an important economic indicator and is highly correlated with inflation, while gold should be bought when the Fed stops hiking or starts cutting interest rates.Paying attention to market history and studying cycles is important, as humans have to rely on data from the past to guide expectations for the future.
Guest Links:Website: https://invictus-research.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacroPromo: MacroTrial
Michael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.
Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the anlysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he became involved at Invictus.
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of the Contra Speculator. Nick notes that the current U.S. world order is breaking down, and the future remains uncertain. He compares governments to crime families and points out that bonds are just an extension of the fiat system. He goes on to emphasize that money is a technology used to send value across time and space, and that government involvement in the monetary system is unnecessary. He adds that only a small subset of the population understand the importance of hard money, and that politicians often don’t understand money either, which leads to inflationary tendencies.
Regarding the move towards CBDC's, Nick believes it is more of a desperate last move to maintain the status quo. He explains that the definition of inflation has been manipulated and that the CPI metrics are more akin to propaganda. As such, people will need to find alternative places to store their wealth; gold, Bitcoin, and real estate being potential options. Nick explains that both gold and Bitcoin have resistance to debasement, gold having a long history of 5000 years and Bitcoin having coded annual production that declines. He adds that while gold has portability, Bitcoin is superior in that regard. All in all, Nick believes that both gold and Bitcoin will compete with each other on their monetary attributes in the long-term.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Global Changes6:39 - The Race to Debase12:44 - Buying Your Vote14:54 - CBDC Objectives18:43 - Measuring Inflation22:17 - Whee a Debt Jubilee26:31 - Storing Value31:04 - Bitcoin Vs. Gold39:32 - Crypto Regulations42:37 - Financial Censorship45:35 - Freedom & Principals46:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Governments are like crime families, and bonds are just an extension of the fiat system.Gold and Bitcoin are both good alternatives to store wealth, as their resistance to debasement gives them value.The move towards CBDC's is a desperate attempt to maintain the status quo, but the definition of inflation has been manipulated.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/NickGiambrunoWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report, Mountain Vision, Ron Paul Liberty Report, among others.
Nick is a frequent speaker at investment conferences around the world.
Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees back to the show. Luke and Tom Bodrovics discuss the relationship between gold and real rates in the context of a capital crunch. Luke suggests that gold is being re-introduced as a reserve asset due to Russian sanctions and that energy prices need to rise to drive production growth. However, Western borrowers are too heavily indebted to pay their debts, leading to a potential capital crunch. If the US fails to meet its liquidity needs, it will lead to a significant spike in the dollar and a decline in risk assets. Alternatively, if the US Fed provides enough liquidity, it could cause inflation which is bad for bonds but good for gold and stocks.
Luke advises investors to remain unlevered and warns that the US Fed may need to back off before the election, as inflation has been absent for a long time. He suggests shorting long-term US, UK, and Western sovereign debt as term premiums are still negative and yields remain inaccessible. He pins this to the US government's need to pull forward its debt issues and the debt ceilings. Luke further discusses the concept of fiscal dominance and believes that the Fed will soon have to initiate QE to finance government deficits, leading to yield curve control.
Finally, Luke discusses the de-dollarization of commodity markets and the need for oil prices to rise by 5-8% year to year. He commends the Biden administration’s decision to purchase oil to fill the SPR and underscores the importance of OPEC in stabilizing the market. Luke stresses that traders must think and plan for the long-term implications of their decisions in order to prevent disaster.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Gold and Rates?3:17 - Emerging Markets6:20 - A Capital Crunch8:55 - Fed Policy & Elections12:24 - Rates & Treasuries17:43 - Fiscal Dominance22:20 - Inflation Targeting28:57 - Yield Curve Control30:30 - Japan & U.S. Influence37:02 - Rates & Debt Servicing38:53 - Banking Sector Health45:45 - The Dollar & BRICS52:08 - IMF & Oil Trade53:50 - Energy Supply & CapEx56:44 - Peak Cheap Energy?1:01:03 - SPR & Treasuries1:04:24 - OPEC & U.S. Relations1:11:25 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold is being pulled back into the system as a reserve asset amid Russian sanctions. Energy prices need to rise to drive production growth.The Fed may need to cut back before the election and it could remain unclear what their plan is for the fiscal system.OPEC is carefully considering the second and third order implications of its actions in order to prevent the global economy from experiencing drastic price fluctuations.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.
In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.
In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.
Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
Tom welcomes Stefan Gleason, president of Money Metals Exchange back to the show. They discuss the legalities and intricacies of purchasing and owning precious metals, as well as the taxation issues surrounding them. Stephen explains the importance of sound money and how it can be achieved through buying and storing gold and silver. He also highlights the legislative victories of the Sound Money Defense League, such as sales tax exemptions for precious metals in several states. Stephen then goes on to explain the difficulty of getting sales tax exemptions passed due to anticipated loss of revenue. He also explains that five states do not have income tax on gold and silver, and that Arkansas and Arizona recently passed laws exempting precious metals from income tax.
Stephen then moves on to discuss Congressman Mooney's bill which requires an audit of the Federal Reserve's gold holdings and prohibits the Fed from doing research or development of a Central Bank Digital Currency. Finally, he discusses the idea of spending gold and silver and making it legal tender, as well as the difficulties in making it a viable option. Stephen acknowledges that people are mainly doing it out of ideological reasons, but suggests that it may gain more traction when it becomes the only payment method someone will accept.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - State Tax Reform5:30 - Sales Tax Exemptions12:23 - Partisan Politics15:06 - Threshold States22:43 - Sales & Use Taxes25:16 - Taxation Reasons29:45 - Dollar Re-Peg?35:33 - Treasury Gold Audits37:59 - Secrecy & Gold Holdings39:40 - FedNow Purpose44:47 - Digital Gold49:47 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
The legislative successes of the Sound Money Defense League, which has successfully passed sales tax exemptions on precious metals in several states this year.Stephen highlights the progress made this year in Kentucky, Maine, Vermont, Wisconsin, and New Jersey.Congressman Mooney's bill requiring an audit of the Federal Reserve's gold holdings could help constrain government spending and curb inflation, and his bill prohibiting the Fed from doing research or development of a CBDC.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MoneyMetalsWebsite: https://moneymetals.comWebsite: https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/
Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals investment company and news service with over 500,000 readers and 250,000 customers. He launched the company while president of a national newsletter publishing company dedicated to helping subscribers protect their freedoms, assets, and privacy.
Gleason founded Money Metals Exchange in 2010 in response to the abusive practices of national advertisers of "rare" coins. These companies often mark up their coins to 50%, 100%, or even higher above their actual melt value. Money Metals believes the average investor should only purchase precious metals at or near their true melt value. The rare coin market is only suitable for highly experienced collectors with money to blow.
Gleason also leads marketing, publishing, and real estate holding companies and legislative projects involving sound money and the precious metals industry. Previously, Gleason served as Vice President of the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation in Springfield, Virginia. Gleason is a graduate of the University of Florida with a BA degree in Political Science.
Gleason has frequently appeared on national television shows and networks such as CNN, CNBC, Fox News, Christian Broadcasting Network, and C-SPAN's Washington Journal. He is often interviewed on national radio shows such as the Lars Larson Show, Michael Reagan Show, G. Gordon Liddy Show, and Ken Hamblin Show. Gleason's analysis and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com, Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Newsweek, and National Review, among thousands of other national, state, and local newspapers,
Tom Bodrovics is once again joined by global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the interrelatedness of China and Russia and the possibility of more conflicts around the world. Murrin explains the Kondratiev Cycle of economic turmoil and how it has manifested as a war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine. He warns of the dangers of lateral thinking predators like Putin and Xi and paints a scenario of what an unstable future could look like if Ukraine loses the war. He argues that the Biden administration is the root of the problem and that NATO needs to go on a wartime footing and provide essential equipment to Ukraine.
Murrin highlights the danger of World War Three, suggesting that it looks more like a hot war than a Cold War. He speaks of the White House's effective use of oil caps to deplete Putin’s treasury and the irony that Europe is funding Putin’s war in Ukraine. He also discusses the development of AI and quantum computing and how it is leading to an arms race between China and the United States, with the Chinese ahead. He speaks of Putin's Achilles heel- the fact that Russia’s demographics are in decline, and how Brexit was an attempted revolution in thought, but it failed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Murrin also talks about inflation, saying that it is the signal from nature that tells us that systems have become tired and old and need to be changed. He believes that the surge of inflation will decrease demand and lead to commodity constriction due to Cold War, bifurcation and conflict. He talks about the BRICS Plus alliance and de-globalization, and the idea of turbocharging growth through productivity and innovation. Finally, he gives his long-term targets for gold and silver and encourages everyone to be bold and recognize problems to create a cascade of change and demand for change.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - China, Russia & Conflict6:10 - Prigozhin & Wagner10:00 - Leadership & Thinkers12:46 - Ukraine & Putins Goal17:05 - World War III24:14 - Supply Constrictions26:26 - Europe, Russia & Energy31:32 - Putin's Achilles Heel35:05 - A.I. Singularity42:30 - Better Leadership49:10 - Cycles & Inflation53:05 - Dollar & Currencies59:10 - Inflation & Trade1:02:16 - Rising Rates & Bubbles1:07:32 - Bonds & Money Printing1:09:56 - Ratchet Risk Model1:12:14 - Gold & Silver Outlook1:17:54 - Ukraine & Geopolitics1:22:50 - Concluding Thoughts1:30:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David Murrin warns of the dangers of lateral thinking predators like Putin and Xi and the need for NATO to go on a wartime footing to protect the West.The arms race between China and the United States over AI and quantum computing and the need for lateral leaders to adapt and move forward.Possible gold targets and the importance of demanding change from government.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to depl...
In this second half of this Palisades interview Tom Luongo and Vince Lanci continue to discuss topics related to gold, western foreign policy, LIBOR, and more. Vince explains the importance of setting up a gold-convertible exchange and how the supply and demand of gold is moving east. He also explains how the West is combatting this by forcing pricing in dollars, while Saudi Arabia and other BRICs are pricing in Brent. They discuss in depth the factors at play in the war of currencies and sanctions from a geopolitical perspective, and Luongo says the dumbest thing Trump ever did was putting shock and awe sanctions on Iran. They also discuss the free market, the MI6, and the US's weak ground game in Russia.
The conversation then turns to the future of global currencies in light of the BRICS+ meeting in August. Tom believes it is an incremental shift and not any major change, and is more worried about something like a false flag that would put the world beyond a point of no return. Vince wants to talk about the note about the German central bank needing a bailout, and Tom believes Europe marking their gold to market is a negotiation or bluff. Tom then introduces the concept of SOFR and how the SOFR futures market went ballistic three months later and killed off the euro dollar futures in just about a year. He also finds it interesting that the SOFR futures indicates that the Federal Reserve is not likely to pivot before the end of the year. Vince argues that some form of inflation must happen in order for the private insurance and pension systems to be fixed.
Lastly, Vince says prepare for the worst but notes that things will probably play out slowly.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Gold Convertibility15:19 - Major Wars & Currencies22:40 - Western Foreign Policy29:43 - BRICS+ Changes33:23 - Gold C.B. Bookkeeping43:55 - Digital Euro & FedNow54:00 - Debt Ceiling & Biden56:24 - Powell & End of Libor1:03:42 - Dollar Demand & Flows1:07:25 - Preps & Slow Collapse?1:10:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
How demand for gold and other commodities is moving east, and with it the businesses like, storage, refinement, and manufacturingTom Luongo believes the dumbest thing Trump ever did was putting shock and awe sanctions on Iran, as it took away the convenience premium of the dollar and forced Iran to create an infrastructure that incentivised people to use other currencies.Why we're watching an incremental process play out away from the U.S. dollar.
Tom Luongo Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Luongo is an ex-Research Chemist and Anarcho-Libertarian, whose work can be seen on sites like Zerohedge and Newsmax Media. He has been married for 30 years and has a teenage daughter. Professionally, he has seen an industry be created and destroyed by government fiat. He ran for Florida House and later spent 5+ years working on an electroless Nickel-Boron coating. Additionally, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats 'N Guns Newsletter. He does not believe in the man-made global warming narrative, and his political views lean toward libertarianism. In his free time, he builds, raises goats, plays hockey, drums, and plays board games. Lastly, he owns a few guns.
Vincent Lanci Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Vincent Lanci is the Founder and Owner of Echobay Partners LLC., and a regular contributor on the financial news platform Zero Hedge. His achievements include being a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as a precious metals and option market expert, and co-authoring Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi for the University of Connecticut in 2017.
From 2004-2008, Mr.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Tom Luongo and Vince Lanci to the show to discuss current geopolitical realities. They discuss the current dealings between the U.S. and China and the impacts on the markets. Vince explains that China is a capitalist society and would not dump their U.S. treasury bonds, as it would be cutting their nose to spite their face. Luongo adds that Joe Biden seems to be a puppet for a variety of actors, and his ultimate purpose is to prevent world war three. He also states that across almost every vertical or idiom there are people trying to ignite and control the conflict.
The conversation turns to mercantilism, and how it is a manifestation of the deglobalization that has been accelerated by the complexity collapse of Covid. The guests also discuss how the media rarely talks about it, and how Victoria Nuland and Jake Sullivan have recruited various countries to try and isolate Russia. They theorize the Wagner Rebellion may be used as a method for Putin to essentially “fold in” mercenaries that prove too important to be independent.
They then debate the ultimate outcome of the situation, speculating that the US believes that in the long-term Russia collapses due to their reliance of oil revenue, while Russia believes that in the long-term they succeed despite the United States’ tactics. They also discuss how the Saudis are demonstrating their power by pushing a little oil onto the market, and how the Russians have been preparing for the confrontation for the past decade and are now putting in place the same infrastructures as the Chinese put in place in the mid-1990s.
At the end of the day, all sides are playing a waiting game, and it seems Putin has the upper hand. It could be a long wait until a resolution is reached.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - China & Capitalism6:45 - Biden & Pushback10:08 - Oil Trade & OPEC14:34 - Trade & Mercantilism21:00 - Sanctions & Russia26:40 - Biden & Sec Gen. NATO30:43 - Geopolitics & Wagner34:21 - Belarus & Color Revolts37:47 - Pakistan & the Saudis38:53 - U.S. Positioning & Energy40:24 - Time & Global Pressure48:48 - Gold Settled Futures
Talking Points From This Episode:
The US and Europe are relying on mercantilism and a strong currency to hold out against Russia's tactics.Russia has been preparing for confrontation with the US for the past decade, putting in place infrastructures to ensure traders that their investments are safe.All sides are playing a waiting game, with Putin currently having the upper hand.
Tom Luongo Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Luongo is an ex-Research Chemist and Anarcho-Libertarian, whose work can be seen on sites like Zerohedge and Newsmax Media. He has been married for 30 years and has a teenage daughter. Professionally, he has seen an industry be created and destroyed by government fiat. He ran for Florida House and later spent 5+ years working on an electroless Nickel-Boron coating. Additionally, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats 'N Guns Newsletter. He does not believe in the man-made global warming narrative, and his political views lean toward libertarianism. In his free time, he builds, raises goats, plays hockey, drums, and plays board games. Lastly, he owns a few guns.
Vincent Lanci Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/SorenthekWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Vincent Lanci is the Founder and Owner of Echobay Partners LLC., and a regular contributor on the financial news platform Zero Hedge. His achievements include being a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as a precious metals and option market expert, and co-authoring Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi for the University of Connecticut in 2017.
From 2004-2008, Mr.
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to discuss the global economy and global political reality. Simon Hunt discusses the global economy and the rapidly declining trust between governments. Physical consumption of copper is weak and weakening, indicative of either being in a recession or entering one shortly. The various PMI indexes are pointing clearly to recession in the United States and savings rates are falling. Markets are propped up by the reported levels of employment, however he questions some of the data as companies are cutting hours. Europe is in a political mess with Germany in recession, and he expects the global economy to continue poorly into the fourth quarter.
Russia understands America's role in the Ukraine War and it's clear the West wants to dismember Russia for control of their natural resources. He anticipates the leadership in Russia to soon take the gloves off with Ukraine, resulting in a dramatic decline in western Equity Markets by the end of the year. This coupled with an increase in the conflict will result in western Central Banks to flush the system with money, causing horrendous inflation and a rapidly falling dollar.
Most G7 countries have severe demographic problems, particularly Germany, which could be their last decade as a powerful country due to lack of population. The BRICS+ nations have positive demographics and Iran is a sleeping giant with foreign investment pouring into the country exploring and developing their resources.
Real war is coming to Ukraine when Russia takes the gloves off, forcing the West to make some hard choices. This could dramatically escalate should Nato may enter the war more openly. Iran has contingency plans in the event that Israel or the USA tries to intervene and they are fully capable of shutting down the straights of Hormuz.
Simon believes there is not much time left for contingency planning by Western individuals and companies.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Copper Demand & Economy7:15 - Russia & Central Banking11:50 - Global Equity Markets17:55 - 2030's Global Recovery19:50 - Job Data & Treasuries23:39 - Treasury & Dollar Concerns26:20 - BRICS & Gold Rumours34:20 - Golds Future Role38:30 - Commodity Importance40:30 - China's Reopening49:20 - Chinese Citizen Debt51:56 - Demographic Issues54:40 - Foreign Investment - Iran57:40 - Commodity Substitution1:02:50 - Russia & NATO Escalation1:08:24 - Potential Conflicts1:09:41 - Closing Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
The global economy is in a recession, with weak copper demand and PMI indexes in the United States all in recession.Russia is aware of America's role in the Ukraine War and the West wants to dismember Russia for control of their natural resources.Real war is coming to Ukraine when Russia takes the gloves off and Iran could be a wildcard.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993,
Tom welcomes back Chase Taylor to the show. Chase is a macro strategist and editor of Pinecone Macro Research and head of research at Bulwark Capital Management.
Chase discusses the current economic situation and the potential for a longer and deeper recession than expected. He notes that lags in the economy appear to be longer than in the past, and consumer spending is flatlining, with delinquency data showing signs of struggle. He believes that the Fed's policies of boosting liquidity and raising rates are at odds and could lead to further financial stress.
Chase also discusses the issue of debt among different demographics, highlighting the student loan forbearance coming due in October. He notes that student loan debt is twice as high as credit card debt and cannot be escaped through any type of bankruptcy. He then discusses the banking crisis that occurred in the past and how it was mainly based on liquidity, and how small businesses could be hit hard when smaller banks tighten standards.
Chase worries that the Fed may have misjudged the lag time with their demand destruction plan, leading to a monumental long trade in commodities due to destroyed supply. He discusses his approach to investing in this current environment. He urges investors to separate their feelings from their trading activities and to be aware of feedback loops, where thing can spiral out of control.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:15 - Lessons & Good Calls4:38 - Thinking Clearly & Timing9:48 - Summer of Discontent15:03 - Expectations & Recession19:09 - Gross Domestic Income21:43 - Fed & Bad Models27:42 - Recession Outlook31:20 - Stimulus Factors33:26 - Paycheck to Paycheck39:27 - Bank Crises & Risks44:43 - Depressions & Policies47:35 - Financial Stress50:32 - Rate Cuts & Markets53:00 - Fed Lag Issues55:13 - Commodities & Energy57:46 - Uranium59:15 - Metals Outlook & Cash1:00:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The current economic situation appears to be worse than expected, with consumer spending flatlining and delinquency data showing signs of struggle.Student loan debt is twice as high as credit card debt and cannot be escaped through any type of bankruptcy.Investors should separate their feelings from their trading activities and be aware of feedback loops, where things can spiral out of control.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.pineconemacro.com/Website: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/pineconemacroSubstack: https://pineconemacroresearch.substack.com/
Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. He recently became Head of Research at Bullwark Capital Management. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.
Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.
Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a distinctive macro framework. He combines technical analysis, fundamental changes, and the power of narratives and reflexivity to uncover asymmetric investments.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth to discuss the looming problems of the US credit markets. Booth notes that the US is in the midst of a controlled demolition, and that the deliberate nature of Powell's higher for longer rate hike schedule is having a negative effect in the form of bankruptcies. Despite this, there has not been a major financial meltdown due to the amount of credit card spending and the amount of fiscal stimulus from the pandemic.
Booth discussed the tightening of banking standards and lending standards, which she noted have been imposed by credit unions and regional banks. She noted that as long as Jay Powell succeeds in maintaining a higher for longer stance on monetary policy, there will be a continued bleed into the money market fund industry. She discussed the magnitude of fiscal relief and fiscal stimulus that is still being pumped into the economy, and how this is helping the Fed to regain some of their credibility.
Danielle also discussed student loan forbearance, which was part of the debt ceiling law and explained that there was little room for an extension. She then discussed commercial real estate, noting that demand had declined and companies and businesses were turning in their keys.
DiMartino Booth then discussed the goal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, which is to raise interest rates and rewrite modern monetary policy history. To do this, he must get rid of the zero bound, stop at two percent, get rid of quantitative easing, and get out of the credit easing business.
Finally, DiMartino Booth discussed the global implications of the US keeping their rates higher for longer. She also notes that major fiscal relief should not be expected until the second quarter of 2025 at the earliest.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Fed Pauses & Bankruptcies2:27 - Stimulus & Credit4:46 - Consumer Debt & Spending7:02 - Lending Tightening8:27 - Powell Approach10:23 - Soft Landing & Jobs14:12 - Impacts & Stimulus16:08 - Student Loans18:17 - Commercial Real Estate19:44 - Easing & Timelines22:05 - Monetary History26:41 - U.S. & C.B. Stress28:22 - Wrap Up
Talking Points:
The US is in the midst of a controlled demolition, with the deliberate nature of Powell's higher for longer rate hike schedule having a negative effect in the form of bankruptcies.Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is aiming to raise interest rates and rewrite modern monetary policy history.The US dictates global monetary policy, and domestically major fiscal relief should not be expected until the second quarter of 2025 at the earliest.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothSubstack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Website: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News,
Tom welcomes Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates back to the show. Lawrence discusses the rivets on the global economy that are continuing to snap. We have had a number of bank failures in a matter of weeks, part of a larger pattern going back years. We are seeing large commercial mortgage failures and companies walking away, and Lawrence believes more pain is yet to come in the banking sector, with one to two trillion in write downs. The Fed is likely to intervene once again, and something is likely to break soon.
Lawrence discusses the U.S. debt maturities, and how the U.S. government soon will have to pay over a trillion to meet its obligations annually. The math arguably doesn't work, and the Fed is trapped. The market will force them to pivot at some point, and they will do whatever they can to hold the system together.
He explains why it is important to hold money that can't be printed, like gold, silver, or bitcoin. He advises to take the long view and recognize why you are holding it, as in the context of saving your wealth, since things could break quickly. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin could move rapidly in a crisis.
Some of the problems could be improved by increasing the money supply. But in a debt based system, there is no going back. Consumers are feeling the pinch and borrowing more from credit isn't a long-term solution.
He discusses which age groups are most at risk in a downturn. Boomers hold significant amounts of real estate and equities, and when they realize that inflation is staying, where will they move their capital to preserve wealth? The world has not yet adapted to the new paradigm of high inflation.
There is a multi-generational buying opportunity in the gold stocks, and many holders are tired of the market. If you are a contrarian, you realize people will wake up and these stocks will take off. We must understand the inevitable nature of what is coming. When the system comes unglued, there may be no time to get out. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in hours, and it is entirely possible things could unravel rapidly and at scale.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Financial Problems5:15 - U.S. Debt Maturity7:06 - Rate Levels & Risks13:13 - Bond Mkt Volatility15:34 - Sentiment & Miners16:24 - Fed Mistakes & CapEx21:37 - Money Supply Growth23:47 - Inflation & Consumers27:52 - Foreign Tres. Demand30:18 - Wealth Demographics34:35 - Gold Miner Chart39:00 - Summer Doldrums41:50 - Rapid Contagion47:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The global economy is continuing to snap, with one to two trillion in write downs likely, and the Fed likely to intervene soon.Investors should hold money that can't be printed, such as gold, silver, and bitcoin, in order to protect their wealth in a crisis.Boomers are particularly at risk in a downturn, and there is a multi-generational buying opportunity in gold stocks.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Tom welcomes an interesting guest who dives deeply into various financial topics; John Titus. He discusses noticing the liquidity issues in the banking system and three weeks later Silicon Valley Bank failed. The Fed's balance sheet until 2008 was less than a trillion dollars, which was largely for settling transactions. However, in 2008, the balance sheet exploded. In 2020, the Fed created reserves far larger in scale and they started buying assets from non-banks. Starting March of 2020, the Fed balance sheet ballooned from 13.5 trillion to 18 trillion, which was the cause of the inflation. They increased the money supply for households and ordinary businesses, and this wasn't just reserve balances on account at the Fed.
Silicon Valley Bank had 13 billion dollars on account spread over ten accounts. When the Fed bought 4.5 trillion from non-banks, it bought them through firms like Blackrock. Senate testimony showed that much of this money was in retail bank accounts. Money started out in business accounts but ended up in households. John doesn't believe that apps were behind the flows out of SVB; this seems like a cover story to him. This isn't just a regional banking crisis; these were large banks in the top hundred. These were rich people banks that were failing, so the Fed had to intervene. People aren't talking about the whales in the pond; this is part of the game of favoritism. He says, "The Fed is picking the winners and losers, with opaque policy decisions and no record keeping. They get whatever result they want; we live in a lawless nation run by criminals."
John discusses some metrics that can help you determine if your bank could fail. It is considered wise today to have some exposure to physical precious metals. Banks are being consolidated into a much tighter group, where the JP Morgans of the world acquire smaller banks.
Canada has changed the rules around mortgages, allowing huge extensions. Debt is someone else's asset and someone is going to be burnt. These types of policies are leading to a loss of overall confidence in the system. John believes we're going to see more bank failures and inevitably lower rates. The Fed is all about managing perception to the benefit its private owners.
Gold brings options to other countries if they want to move away from the dollar. Everyone today needs resources and Eastern nations are looking to consolidate their own resource supplies. They are sick of the U.S. exporting inflation abroad. It would not surprise him if they come out with a resource-based currency alternative.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Best Evidence & FRED3:44 - Bank Crisis Parallels6:47 - Banks & Fed Accounts10:30 - Pandemic & Bank Crisis12:04 - Fed Chart - Top 0.1%15:02 - Account Sizes & FDIC Risk17:17 - Apps & SVB Transfers18:43 - "Regional" Banking Crisis21:56 - Wealth Concentration24:28 - Credit Suisse25:54 - Rule Making & FDIC27:30 - Bank Red Flags29:03 - Protecting Your Money31:52 - CBDC & Bank Consolidation34:40 - Rate Hikes & Volatility37:04 - Hikes & Debt Rollover39:53 - Canada & Mortgage Rates41:55 - Fed Hikes or Pivot44:49 - Eastern Gold Buying47:43 - Power Balance48:29 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The Fed's balance sheet exploded in 2008 and again in 2020, leading to inflation and an increase in the money supply for households and businesses.Banks are being consolidated into a much tighter group, with larger banks acquiring smaller ones.Other countries are looking to move away from the U.S. dollar and create their own resource-based currency alternatives.
Guest Links:SubStack: https://bestevidence.substack.com/Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1843407Odysey: https://odysee.com/@BestEvidence:bYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BestEvidence
John Titus holds a masters degree in electrical engineering as well as a law degree and he uses these to pursue his "day job". However, John is also a staunch critic of central banking the federal res...
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis, explaining how they use momentum trends to look at the long-term picture of market sectors. Momentum can show something breaking before the price trend appears.
He believes the Nasdaq is in a counter-trend rally which could work for a few months, but much of its performance is limited to a few over-weighted stocks. It wouldn't take much to initiate a new decline.
Michael discusses a point and figure chart designed to take out erratic price action with gold. He expects there to be a point where moves in gold and silver are so dynamic that big swings won't matter.
He then talks about the dollar and their past predictions based on momentum. In recent months the dollar has been moving sideways for several months and he expects a mini collapse when it reaches the 101 level. He argues that the world doesn't need a "global reserve currency" in this modern age with communications and near instant computer systems.
Michael believes commodities, including oil and agriculture, are now largely undervalued again. He notes that energy may be lagging in the coming commodity move and uranium has been in a pause and hasn't experienced a pullback, which may be indicative of the world in a new transition to that energy source. He adds that miners are often weak before the real breakout and, once reality sets in, they snap to the upside and outperform gold in relative performance.
Finally, Michael warns of the uncertainty with the coming elections, which doesn't appear to be priced into today's markets. He outlines a scenario that could play out if Trump were to start his own political party, noting that something is going to change fundamentally this election cycle in the United States.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Market Breathing4:33 - Nasdaq Health8:03 - Gold PF Chart12:38 - Gold & Moving Averages16:45 - Trends & Silver19:10 - Dollar Performance28:00 - Oil & Petrodollar33:02 - Uranium Outlook34:37 - Flash Crashes40:42 - Miners Vs. Metals45:23 - Election Uncertainty50:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
MSA looks at long-term market trends and can show something breaking before the price trend appears.Commodities, including oil and agriculture, are now largely undervalued again.Uncertainty with the coming elections is not priced into today's markets.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich to the show to discuss the U.S. reaching the practical limit for debt and the serious decline it is facing. They discuss the widespread problems of crime, health issues, and the decline in family values, as well as Canada now advocating medically assisted dying for the elderly and those with mental health issues. Peter believes the BLS has been providing overly optimistic data and that it has never been this tough for small businesses, with labor being difficult to find.
He suggests that in downturns, it is better to be a year too early than a day too late, and that gold is an example of an uncrowded trade. He also believes that the cryptocurrency space has largely blown up and won't be coming back anytime soon. Peter believes that we have seen the worst of inflation for the foreseeable future, but that inflation will remain higher than what we have become accustomed to.
Talking Points From This Episode
Problems facing the USA and the West and why the solutions remain limited.Crowded trades and what parts of the gold sector hold promise.Outlook for uranium, energy, and concerns around banks and commercial real estate.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - America in Decline2:35 - Health, Safety & Family4:20 - Bad Economic Data5:45 - Media & Solutions?7:08 - Trades Crowded/Empty10:22 - Gold Sector Thoughts15:15 - Cryptocurrencies21:23 - Uranium & Producers25:33 - Holding Cash & Oil26:57 - Commercial Real Estate29:12 - Banks & Lending Stds.32:20 - Fed Rates & Inflation34:42 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://petergrandich.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/PeterGrandich
Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.
Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. Through Athletes in Action, Grandich assisted with Bible study and chapel services for the New York Giants and New York Yankees from 2002 to 2016.
His autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was first published in 2011 and is now on its fourth printing.
Peter Grandich resides in New Jersey with his wife, Mary, and has one daughter, Tara. In 2015, he turned a three-decade dream into a reality by opening a storefront office in the "Norman Rockwell style" Jersey Shore town of Spring Lake. He then extended that vision by opening a satellite office in Millstone Township in 2019.
Tom welcomes Chris, the founder of The Technical Traders, back to the show. Chris strictly follows price action and provides his thoughts on the SPY: he believes we are in a stage three topping pattern, which likely portents a further market decline.
It has been a long time since we witnessed a broad stage four decline, so people have forgotten what this could entail: a twenty to forty percent drop. He uses the SPY as an indicator for the trend much of the market is experiencing. When a bear market arrives, people are oftentimes scared and forced to liquidate positions; everything falls - including oil and precious metals. Though, they tend to recover quickly once a bottom is reached, potentially by the end of the year. Chris explains the pitfalls and risks people should be aware of if they intend to stay invested during a bear market, which can take a long time to fully recover from. His method of counteracting this is utilizing inverse ETFs during declines, helping individuals maximize profits when the bull phase resumes. He and his firm make few trades and only utilize the most liquid ETFs. He terms coin re-vesting as reinvesting into the next best asset classes.
We typically see bearish trends in the fall, with much market movement in the last quarter; a good opportunity for investors. Assets remain overvalued, thus would benefit from a correction. Unfortunately, many people get caught on the wrong side of these markets, so it is essential to protect your capital.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Capital Flows & Metals4:31 - Stage Analysis & Averages7:53 - PM Performance & Capital13:03 - Dollar Performance & Gold15:59 - Energy & Oil Outlook23:49 - Rate Cycles & Hodling27:50 - Rate Hikes & Chart Watching30:42 - More Trades Vs. Risk34:18 - Asset Revestor35:46 - Managing Risk & Flows37:58 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Get prepared for a potentially large market decline of up to 40%, with everything dropping including oil and precious metals.Advantages of inverse ETFs to maximize profits in declines.Watch for opportunity in the last quarter of the year when markets tend to have bigger movements.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.
Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.
Tom recently had the pleasure of chatting with Dr. Stephen Leeb about ICAG (Inflation, Commodities and Gold) and how it can help us look forward into the medium to long term. Steve believes that the US has reached a point of inflection and resources are becoming increasingly scarce, sparking an important discussion about the distribution of resources across the world. He argues that the principles of freedom of thought and equality outlined in the Declaration of Independence are still relevant today and should be the foundation for a successful future.
Steve went on to talk about the Black experience in the 50s and 60s, stressing the importance of everyone having the essentials of life and not defining equality as money and material things. He also mentioned how America is now a materialistic society and how this is dangerous, and how we need to focus on sustainability and humanity.
Steve then discussed the slowdown in technology since the tech stock boom in 2000 and how gold is the only thing that is suited for a monetary system. He believes that gold has magical qualities and is the only thing that can bring back equality and progress in the world.
Steve also spoke about the Milgram experiments and how some people believe that Asians and Russians are more susceptible to obeying authority, but he argued that this is not the case. He then explained how the US has lost the belief of equality and how Elon Musk is an example of someone who believes in free speech and equality.
He believes that for the US to move forward, it must recreate the belief in equality and sustainability that was present in the 1950s and 1960s. He then discussed how the US should become an ally to the BRICS nations and how the war in Ukraine has changed the relationship between Russia and China. He also believes that success is going to be measured by our ability to come together as a species and develop renewable energies.
In conclusion, Steve emphasizes the importance of returning to a Jeffersonian Democracy and of understanding what is sacred to America. He believes that the only way to move forward is to accept everyone's differences and work together to achieve peace and harmony.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - A Point of Inflection2:00 - Resources & Inequality4:42 - Jeffersonian Thought8:00 - Capitalism & Materialism13:15 - Resource Sustainability14:21 - Ukraine & Russia16:03 - Technology & Limits19:00 - 60s/70s a Golden Age?25:02 - The Milgram Experiments27:44 - Respect & Stable Society30:53 - BRICS & Dedollarization35:43 - Russia/China Relations38:43 - Declaration of Independence42:46 - The Love of Money…49:00 - Cooperation Not Wars51:56 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The US has reached a point of inflection and resources are increasingly scarce, sparking an important discussion about the distribution of resources across the world.Gold is the only thing that is suited for a monetary system and has magical qualities that can bring back equality and progress in the world.The US must recreate the belief in equality and sustainability that was present in the 1950s and 1960s in order to move forward.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeebPhdWebsite: https://www.leeb.com/Website: https://www.stephenleeb.com/Book/Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/y4wphb87
Dr. Stephen Leeb is a recognized authority on the stock market, macroeconomic trends, and commodities, especially oil and precious metals. As Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management, Dr. Leeb combines his knowledge of macroeconomic trends and current market conditions with detailed information about specific companies he follows to guide the Committee's investment decisions.
Stephen Leeb is a financial author, wealth manager, and publisher of a family of investment newsletters. He has been a recurring guest on CNN, Fox News, NPR, Bloomberg, and many others through the years.
Tom rejoins silver investor David Morgan to discuss Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). David has already done 30 podcasts examining crypto including possible ties between bankers, elites and the cryptocurrency world. He suggests banking elites desire to control the system via CBDCs is rooted in a reluctance to allow citizens to escape established systems.
China's CBDC system is functioning successfully, becoming a model for other countries. Governments are expert at economic manipulation, said David, which is why he implores people to contact their representatives directly and express apprehension towards a crypto-central bank initiative. He acknowledges asset-backed cryptocurrencies offer a possible alternative, since they are still under the government's radar.
Opting out of the current financial system is a viable option, but asset backed investments are still small relative to the overall financial system. David doesn't expect anything major to disrupt the system over the summer, so gold is likely to remain quiet. Money holds power, but ultimately freedom is more important. This is why efforts to disrupt status quo are so important.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - CBDC Adoption & Crypto4:50 - Bank Instability & Control10:10 - CBDC Uncertainties11:37 - U.S. CBDC Timelines16:54 - FedNow Trial Program18:08 - Gov't Efficiency & Money19:27 - Sidestepping the System20:30 - Pressure Politicians21:48 - Asset Backed Crypto?24:16 - What Price Freedom?25:36 - Freedom & Opting Out28:47 - Precious Metals & Gov't31:47 - Collapse Scenarios36:47 - Summer Doldrums?40:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Governments are using Central Bank Digital Currencies to increase their control and prevent people from escaping the system.Asset backed crypto currencies may provide an alternative financial structure and offer more freedom.There likely won't be any major disruptions to the existing financial system this summer, creating a period of steadiness for precious metals.
Guest Links:Website: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguruISO 20022: https://www.progressoft.com/blogs/iso-20022-data-model-holds-the-key-to-cbdc-interoperability
David is a precious metals enthusiast with degrees in finance and engineering, and he originated The Morgan Report. This monthly report covers economic news, the global economy, and substantial capital gains by investing in the Resource Sector. The Model Portfolio includes top-tier, mid-tier, speculative, and special situations.
David considers himself a big-picture macroeconomist whose main job is educating people about honest money and the benefits of a sound financial system.
A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker worldwide, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has interviewed- The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Investing Rules, and numerous other publications.
As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report, and numerous other publications.
Tom interviews Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, about his views on inflation and the various forces that can affect the price of commodities such as oil. Michael explains the butterfly effect of the pandemic lockdowns, his "commodity inflation butterfly" theory, and how the Fed's actions and OPEC's decisions need to be separated. He believes China understands the geopolitical importance of oil and has begun an EV, coal, and nuclear push to potentially lessen its dependence on oil in the long term. Michael also talks about his worries regarding the Chinese economy and how tariffs and sanctions have dented Russia's revenue.
Michael also talks about his take on the strength of the fiat money system. He argues that going back to a hard money standard would require severe austerity and is unlikely to happen in his lifetime. He believes that for a currency to gain wide adoption, it needs an elastic supply of said currency, which is something that the U.S. dollar has. Additionally, Michael has his doubts about the idea of bricks supplanting the U.S. dollar as a global reserve. He believes that because of the dollar's strong network effects, it would be next-to-impossible for its rivals to take its place.
When discussing the potential of a Minsky moment for China, Michael notes that the cracks already being to appear, but no one knows when or which domino will fall first. He worries that OPEC+ has shot their wad too early and this time around have no Bullets to save them. He is not encouraged by WTI price action and is worried that OPEC+ will eventually have to increase production. All of these factors points to a lot of slack in the market which will push the singularity corridor way out.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Michael's Viewpoints5:00 - Dollar Wrecking Ball6:45 - Hikes & Lynch Pins13:00 - Gretaverse & Energy23:22 - OPEC Cuts & the Fed31:25 - Growth, Capacity & Supply37:20 - Russian Oil Revenue40:43 - China Debt Time Bomb52:10 - Boiling Frogs & ESG57:46 - Thoughts on Gold1:05:03 - Dedollarization1:10:23 - Fiat & Dollar Dominoes1:12:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The US dollar has a strong network effect and is therefore unlikely to be supplanted as a global reserve currency.OPEC cutting supply prematurely could cause high prices and damage demand while the Fed is currently using its tool of raising rates to combat inflation.China has begun an EV, coal, and nuclear push to potentially lessen its dependence on oil in the long term and mitigate a Minsky moment.The corridor of viability for a supply-demand singularity in the oil market has been pushed out to 2026.Going back to a hard money standard would require severe austerity.
Guest Links:Website/Substack: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/aboutTwitter: https://twitter.com/@UrbanKaoboy
Michael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings.
Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Drew Rathgeber, creator of ProGoldTrader.com and an 18 year trading veteran to the show.
Drew began by discussing spot transactions, explaining that the biggest counterparty risk is the company you are dealing with and their policies, as they can change the spread charge at any time. He then discussed spot trading accounts, noting that the biggest risk factor is the lack of regulatory authority and that they are effectively pooled accounts. Similarly, gold ETFs and funds have issues. Noting that the biggest risk is the inability to trade at night and that the market may not move in line with the price of the metal. He then discussed the futures markets, noting that the biggest counterparty risk is the FCM.
Drew then discussed the risk of the US government repricing gold, noting that he does not think it will ever happen, but it is a risk to consider.
Drew also discussed the advantages of using futures contracts compared to other markets such as crypto. He explained that when using futures contracts, customer funds are held in an escrow account by a Futures Clearing Merchant (FCM). This provides a layer of protection and oversight that is not available in other markets. Drew also touched on the stigma around futures markets, and how they are often seen as being manipulated. He explained that while manipulation does exist, it is important to remember that the goal is profits, and that futures markets were created for hedgers and producers to sell their products at the highest price possible. He also discussed the various sizes of futures contracts, and that it is possible to take delivery of physical metal from these contracts.
Finally, Drew discussed his program, ProGoldTrader, and how it aims to help people with their wealth preservation, learn futures trading, and lower their transaction costs. He believes that gold bugs should focus on the spread charge when investing in gold, as it can take a year or two to recover the cost of the spread. He also encourages people to consult their CPA for their individual tax situation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Background & Lessons
4:00 – Understanding Markets
10:12 – Regulated Vs. Unregulated
12:34 – Case Study & Premiums
15:00 – Educating and E-Book
16:37 – Average Annual Gold Moves
18:42 – Collectors Vs Investors
21:33 – Market Types & Risks
26:18 – Futures Complexities
27:32 – FCM & Segregation
30:34 – Manipulation?
32:45 – Industry & Futures Uses
34:40 – Contract Sizes
35:37 – Taking Delivery
36:42 – Counterparty Risks
38:51 – Gold ETF Funds
41:42 – Gov’t Gold Repricing
43:03 – Ultimate Gold Goals
44:10 – Pro Gold Trader
46:42 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Spot transactions carry counterparty risk via companies who can change the spread charge at any time.
- Futures contracts offer a layer of protection due to funds being held in an escrow account by an FCM.
- ProGoldTrader is a program to help with wealth preservation and lower transaction costs for investors.
Guest Links:
Website: https://progoldtrader.com
Email: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.com
Apply Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation’s largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED.
Tom welcomes the fascinating new guest Hugh Hendry to the show. Hugh talks about the challenges of setting up a hedge fund today. He paints a picture of the current markets as fiercely volatile, particularly with unusual events occurring that are supposed to happen once in a century. Additionally, debt and debt expansion shows no signs of ending.
Hugh reviews the implications of China predominantly using domestic financing and the effects of their surplus in global trades. He harkens back to the gold standard when it acted as successful high powered currency on an international level before the US Federal Reserve’s involvement. The US now embraces debt to an unprecedented degree that is leading much of the world to a type of serfdom.
Should a conflict occur between Taiwan and China, markets would suffer a massive increase in volatility with a likely negative outcome. Meanwhile in China, their GDP metrics have failed, and the world’s economies are all in a state of decline. An example of this is the drop in financial sector stocks along with people fleeing banks to get to the 5% offered by the Fed.
Hugh’s view is that the 1934 Federal Reserve Act was made to mend the banking system, however, with current price deflation and reduced capital investment, it has been ineffective. Market stabilizers, such as short selling, also aren’t able to prove as useful as before and capital controls remain a risk.
He highlights the Marxist ideology that has resurfaced recently, as younger generations are no long seeing the promised level of success available to their parents. Hugh states we are in the “Fourth Depression”, and he breaks down how each of the previous three was resolved.
Considering reasonable trades in relation to this environment, Hugh suggests considering Bitcoin as one of the few assets currently undervalued.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:57 – Hedge Fund Start
5:57 – Bubbles & Trends
10:32 – Debt Expansion & China
16:07 – China’s Labor Force
22:32 – Taiwan & Conflict Risk
28:30 – Fed Aggressiveness
36:00 – Capital Flight Controls?
40:55 – Feds Usefulness?
48:40 – Foreign Capital & Equities
55:08 – Wealth Protection?
1:06:18 – Trades, Nvidia & Bitcoin
1:10:33 – Thoughts on Gold
1:15:48 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- We are in an unprecedented period of volatility and debt expansion, with growing potential for conflict.
- There has been a lack of counter moves to the overvaluation, as well as financial repression resulting from negative real rates and the possibility of a fourth depression.
- Bitcoin could be one of the few assets currently undervalued and he explains his views on gold.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/@hendry_hugh
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial
Website: https://hughhendry.com/
Acid Capitalist Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zj3Ox1qRD9GSynCKJIODS
Hugh Hendry was born in 1969 in Glasgow, Scotland, and graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in Business Administration and Economics and Finance in 1990. His career began at Edinburgh asset management company Baillie Gifford, followed by Credit Suisse and Odey Asset Management. In 2005, he founded Eclectica Asset Management.
Hendry is renowned for his risk-taking and thought-leadership in global capital markets. His prescience in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 earned him a reputation as a prophetic iconoclast. He has achieved success on social media, including a successful podcast, viral posts, and appearances on Bloomberg, the Economist, and Institutional Investor. Hendry now resides in St. Barts, where he is a leading investor in luxury real estate. He achieved a 31.2% positive return in 2008 and was featured on Financial News’s list of the 100 most remarkable people in European capital markets.
Often giving interviews, participating in TV programs and conferences, and known for his contrarian views, Hugh Hendry is an influential figure in today’s market makers.
Tom welcomes Rafi Farber back to the show to discuss the consequences of the debt ceiling debate. Rafi is an investor, author, and proponent of the Austrian Business Cycle.
Farber discussed the possibility of flooding the market with $1 trillion worth of T-bills if a deal is passed, and the potential effects of this. He noted that similar factors were in play during the repocalypse of 2019, such as tax day and quantitative tightening, and that this current situation is worse.
Farber discussed the complexity of the current banking crisis, which is the fifth largest monthly loss for the big banks in deposits ever. He believes that this is due to a combination of deposits going into money market funds, and small scale debt defaults. He also discussed the IMF’s worries about the banking crisis becoming worse, and how the main difference between the 2008 banking crisis and the current one is that the Federal Reserve now owns mortgage backed securities.
When asked where he saw inflation heading, Farber explained that the paradox of monetary and non-monetary forces on prices is that lower interest rates will initially drive prices down, but eventually the higher money supply will catch up and cancel out any productivity gains in the supply. This will lead to an exponential growth of money supply that will eventually be unsustainable, leading to the collapse of the banking system.
Farber also discussed the weakening of global currencies, using the British pound as an example. He argued that the UK government’s decision to directly finance the government deficit and hand out 70% of paychecks to citizens was “hog wild” and is now leading to a hyperinflationary spiral with food prices at 20%. He then discussed the 10-year bond being at crisis levels, as the Bank of England now owns the bonds instead of retirement funds.
Farber concluded by discussing the importance of paying attention to the current state of the U.S. dollar and other currencies, and the implications this has for the future of the global economy. He argued that the only way to move beyond the skeletal remains of the Bretton Woods system is to trade in gold, but that governments don’t want to do this because it’s honest and they benefit from stealing. He encouraged people to stay grounded in logic and not overextend themselves, reassuring them that if they do, they will make it to the end of this game.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Ceiling Consequences
5:18 – Liquidity Issues
8:06 – REPOcalypse Thoughts
10:23 – Feds Balance Sheet
11:53 – Banking Deposits?
16:13 – Mortgage Securities
19:12 – Inflation Cycles
22:12 – British Pound
25:49 – Inflation & Metrics
28:20 – The Gold Benchmark
33:40 – BRICS & The Dollar
37:04 – Metal Delivery Months
39:50 – Gold/Silver Ratio
42:24 – Communication Speed
43:54 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Defaults and deposit problems in the current banking crisis.
- Concerns with the Fed now owning mortgage backed securities.
- Governments don’t want to trade in gold because it’s honest and they benefit from stealing, so it’s important to stay grounded in logic and not overextend oneself.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/RafiFarber
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@endgameinvestor
Articles: https://seekingalpha.com/author/austrolib#regular_articles
Newsletter: https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1347
Rafi Farber invests based on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory and covers economic trends for timing the credit cycle. His marketplace service, The Libertarian Investor, helps subscribers manage the risks and profit from the ongoing fiscal and monetary crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. His approach uses gold, silver, and associated stocks and investment vehicles as a low-risk, high-return methodology.
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn to discuss the uranium markets and his recent webinar.
Justin believes that the current low price of uranium is indicative of another inflection point in the uranium industry. This is due to the positive news in June 2021, when Sprott’s takeover of Uranium Participation resulted in a surge of interest from investors which led to equities doubling and tripling over the course of the following 3 months. This is leading to the establishment of several new physical funds, providing investors the opportunity to buy uranium at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV).
The West is facing self-imposed Russian sanctions, making the transportation of uranium more complicated, and resulting in more uranium heading east, while Kazakhstan has formed contracts with both China and Russia for joint ventures. China is looking to rapidly increase its stockpile of uranium, and the G7 nations have recognized this and are working towards excluding Russian influence in the nuclear energy market. This could lead to a structural deficit of 180 million pounds a year in 2023 and uranium funds such as Sprott taking physical pounds off the spot market which could influence the market further.
At the same time, public opinion towards nuclear energy is shifting to be more positive and supportive in the West and United States. The anti-nuclear movement of the 70s was driven by significant financial support from fossil fuel lobbyists, however Germany’s attempt to expand renewables and shut down reactors has resulted in higher energy costs and one of the dirtiest grids in Europe. In Japan, public opinion is in strong support of nuclear power, while in the US there is also support. Occidental Petroleum’s CEO has spoken positively about the potential collaboration between fossil fuels and nuclear, pointing out that the fossil fuels are a limited resource so the companies will need to expand.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:20 – Miners & Input Costs
8:25 – Sprott & New Funds
12:56 – Term Market & 2005
20:09 – Russia & Contracts
25:44 – China Reactor Demand
28:22 – Geopolitical Changes
34:23 – Supply Shortages?
38:27 – Nuclear Sentiment Shift
48:23 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The inflection point in the uranium industry has seen multiple physical funds, financial entities and funds competing for physical uranium, potentially suggesting a repeat of the 2005-07 bull market.
- West-East separation is increasing as Western utilities no longer contract with Russia due to sanctions, and East countries such as China are increasing their demand for uranium.
- Public opinion on nuclear energy is shifting more positively, seen in Germany, Japan and the US.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/
Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletter
Twitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsider
Nuclear Now – Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin’s thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro’s “Focus List,” as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter’s subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
The success of Uranium Insider has been gratifying, and the emerging bull market in uranium continues to offer an unusually attractive risk:reward proposition for fellow contrarian investors.
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show.
David discusses how companies often reframe their results to be more “socially acceptable”. During the tech bubble the game of earnings management evolved; analyst’s influence drove the consensus estimates down and then, when the company beat the estimates, it painted a manipulated picture of their financial standing.
David explains the effect that higher rates have on the housing sector; many households are already overstretched and not prepared to pay for house payments when interest rates increase. We are beginning to return to the liar loan phase which helped cause the 2008 housing crisis with Mortgage-Backed Securities. Similarly, auto loans are also being bundled with both prime quality and riskier loans being sold to investors.
The financial system is dependent on continued growth of the money supply, which drives it. However, if the increase is pulled back too quickly, the entire system can collapse, which will eventually happen. Lastly, David urges people to ignore mainstream media and do their own research.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Reframing Results
10:31 – Rates & Housing Impacts
18:45 – Lending Shenanigans
24:49 – Banking Crises & Rates
29:44 – Inflation Themes & M2
44:50 – Gold & Monetary Systems
49:22 – Confidence in Miners?
56:33 – Mining Risk & Returns
57:45 – Gold & Rising Tides
1:00:00 – Putting a Pin In It
Talking Points From This Episode
- Factors driving the debt cycle globally.
- Why we’re in a dangerous period with housing and auto loans .
- Risks around earnings and company financials statements.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamics
Website: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com
Newsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
Tom welcomes back Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG based in Switzerland.
He explains how the debt ceiling is a farce, and a regular show every time it’s reached. It’s been raised over a hundred times and every time, it’s nothing but a political posturing. This is only going to lead to the debt being increased exponentially. Firesince Reagan, the U.S. debt has doubled every eight years, and by 2025, it is projected to reach around $40 trillion. The Fed will likely reach a point where it will no longer be able to control the interest rates. This signifies a dire situation that is further complicated by the fact that no one wants to buy bonds from a country that is technically bankrupt. To try and keep the debt at bay, the U.S. will most likely deploy inflationary tactics, resulting in an increase in prices.
Looking at the macroeconomic scenario, investing in gold is the way to go to safeguard assets from the insecurity caused by risky assets.
Additionally, Egon emphasizes that banks in the E.U. are no better off than those in the United States, and the current economic system would have worked much better if supply and demand were allowed to rule, as opposed to the continuous government interference.
Finally, we are seeing a decline in the West, which could potentially lead to occasional conflict. Nevertheless, Egon advises that we help each other to make it through this rocky patch, as it’s going to be difficult for everyone no matter what.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – U.S. Debt Ceilings
6:13 – Debt Pool Analogy
11:16 – YCC & C.B. Purchases
13:40 – Banking Contagion
23:54 – Bail-In Concerns
27:02 – EU & Western Banking
32:05 – What Breaks Next?
35:00 – Eastern Nations & Gold
42:36 – Domestic Gold Production
47:57 – Gold Price & Meaning
51:08 – Inflation End-Game
54:55 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why the U.S. Debt Ceiling is just politcal posturing.
- European banks are just as bad off as the United States.
- The West is in decline and it will take time to correct.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.goldswitzerland.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Egon von Greyerz is Founder & Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG. He started Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) in 1999 as a private investment company. From the very beginning, wealth preservation was an essential cornerstone of the company. In early 2002, they believed that financial and economic risk in the World was getting uncomfortably high. So that year, they made substantial investments in the physical gold market at $300 on average.
As gold started to rise in the early 2000s, demand for physical gold increased, and in 2005 they set up a regulated company in Zurich – Matterhorn Asset Management AG. A couple of years later, they formed GoldSwitzerland, which is the precious metals division of MAM.
Egon was Born with both Swiss and Swedish citizenship. His education was mainly in Sweden. He started his working life in Geneva as a banker and after he spent 17 years as Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc.
Since the 1990s, Egon has been actively involved with financial investment activities, including mergers and acquisitions and Asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of MAM, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles. MAM is now the World’s leading company for physical gold and silver outside the banking system, directly owned by the investor. Their four vaults include the most immense and safest gold vault in the World, located in the Swiss Alps. Clients are High Net Worth Individuals, Family Offices, Pension Funds, Investment Funds, and Trusts in over 75 countries.
Egon makes regular media appearances and speaks at investment conferences around the World. He also publishes articles on precious metals, the world economy, and wealth preservation.
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders to discuss the current financial picture. He believes this is the last pull back before a big take off in gold, silver, platinum, and miners. Hedge funds are massively short bonds in particular the 10-year, and the banks are on the opposite side of that trade. History shows that banks are almost always the winners. He provides a few targets he anticipates in the next run.
David believes we will get a deflationary event at some point in the near future. By the end of the year, he feels a depressionary scenario is likely, with soaring unemployment, bankruptcies, credit card debt, and auto reposessions. Real estate is stagnating, and the banking crisis is worsening. The Fed will cut rates and print, but that might not save the markets this time. We could be looking at a controlled demolition of the economy, with most sectors going down. Prices for necessities will skyrocket, and there won’t be many places to put your money.
David believes a mind-shift is occurring in the public with regards to gold and confidence in currencies. We’re seeing talk about fertilizers being bad for the environment and the purchasing of farms in the Netherlands. If the politicians don’t agree on the debt ceiling agreement, all hell could break loose. The Fed would have to restart the printers as the debt rating falls. We can’t just keep borrowing while devaluing the currency, which means some sort of financial reset is inevitable. You want to be in assets proven to hold value through time.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Unease & Crises
10:38 – Flash Crash Potential?
19:00 – Interest in Gold?
21:56 – Inflationary Event
26:12 – COT Report Trends
29:10 – Debt Ceiling Theatrics
40:03 – Europe & Dollar Dynamics
43:14 – Dollar & Gold Movement
47:15 – Reality & Growth Goals
54:30 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Hedge funds are short bonds while banks are long; who will be right.
- A great recession is a risk in which prices for necessities will skyrocket.
- We are facing a financial reset, and why the best bet is to invest in assets proven to hold value.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
Silver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, “Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed,” in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
Tom welcomes back MJG Capital Managing Partner Matt Geiger to the show. Matt remarks on the recent rallies and predicts that a smaller rally could occur on a Fed pause, while noting that reaching new highs is still in the realm of possibility. He believes the next decade holds promise for investing in miners and commodities and that this will eventually trickle down to junior miners, making him feel comfortable with the current situation.
Macro factors are aligning well for precious metals, with mid-tiers beginning to pick up and the broader markets waiting in anticipation. Matt predicts that mining will eventually become more popular among younger generations. He also acknowledges the hype surrounding lithium mining, but believes that a correction is needed in that market with the trend moving towards lithium ion phosphate batteries.
Matt is seeing increasing M&A activity, including some significant acquisitions. He provides advice on investing in junior miners and explorers; suggesting that betting on the people rather than individual projects is usually the best approach.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:37 – Miners & Sentiment
8:06 – Gold & Resistance
14:35 – Commodities Value
17:36 – Mining & Politics
21:49 – Lithium Mining
25:23 – Refining Capacity
27:42 – Strategic Minerals
31:22 – Copper Demand
34:05 – Silver Thoughts
37:44 – Canada Divestment?
41:14 – Jurisdictions
48:08 – M&A Activity
51:43 – Junior Mining Mistakes
1:01:06 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The next decade will be a good one for investing in miners and commodities.
- M&A Activity is picking up in the mining sector.
- Lithium mining is currently a hot topic, but Matt believes a correction in the market is required.
Guest Links:
Website: http://mjgcapital.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/geigercounting
Mr. Geiger is Managing Partner at MJG Capital, a limited partnership specializing in natural resource investments. The partnership is long-only and holds a concentrated portfolio of resource equities. Investments include explorers, developers, and producers of precious metals, energy metals, industrial metals, and ag minerals. Matt is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and previously founded a venture-backed technology company most recently valued at $150m.
Tom welcomes back, Jesse Felder. Jesse is the founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report. He discusses how Federal policy aimed to create a wealth effect through printing money, yet it has only generated bubbles and the illusion of growth. He goes on to explain that the more money a country prints, the less attractive that currency becomes to other countries.
We have reached a point where the Fed has to intervene and continue to monetize the debt, and the FDIC has stated they will cover all depositors, raising questions of moral hazard. Jesse believes we are heading for a hard landing in the second half of this year. In addition, an article from the Financial Times pointed out that the United States fiscal status is now similar to that of Greece and Italy due to their increasing unfunded liabilities and pension obligations.
Jesse emphasizes that precious metals are the only asset class that has historic precedent of preserving value in crisis and warns that investors are currently drastically under invested in this sector. He believes that investor demand could go through the roof and that it appears to be setting up for such a run.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – MMT & Fed Wealth Effects
4:14 – GDP & M2 Spiral
8:58 – Foreign Dollar Demand
11:45 – Fed & Confidence
15:47 – Banks & Interventions
21:06 – The Feds Toolbox?
25:05 – Treasury Turbulence
28:26 – Liquidity, Rates, Energy
31:23 – Dollar & Liabilities
34:05 – Bad Fiscal Status
40:35 – Gold & Inflation
43:40 – Inflation Protection
46:45 – Hard Landing & Inflation
52:06 – A.I. & Disinformation
54:54 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The Fed has been printing money for years, creating asset bubbles and artificial growth.
- U.S. fiscal status is now similar to Greece and Italy, with record deficits and unfunded liabilities.
- Precious metals could be the only asset class that holds its value in a crisis.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jessefelder
Website: https://thefelderreport.com/
Articles: https://thefelderreport.com/blog/
Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Tom welcomes back Simon Mikhailovich. Simon is a contrarian investor, entrepreneur, and the founder of The Bullion Reserve.
Simon discusses the counterparty risks that are present in the financial system and how they can lead to bank failures. He notes how the financial system is a series of daisy chains that, if broken, can cause a domino effect and throw the entire system into question. He also notes the 2008 crisis was fifteen years ago, and in that time the Fed has been unable to end its extraordinary policies. This is resulting in a massive amount of debt that would be impossible to service at higher interest rates. Simon believes that this is leading to a radical de-globalization, higher costs, and a reshuffling of the global supply chain that is highly inflationary. In this environment, he suggests that gold may be a better investment than Bitcoin due to its perceived reliability.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Counterparty Risks
9:45 – Bank Run Prevention
12:33 – Bail Outs & Confidence
14:09 – Social Polarization
20:50 – System Fragility
29:45 – Cost of Living
36:17 – Human Nature & Time
44:00 – Phase Transitions
48:15 – Gold Price & ETF Flows
53:18 – Gold As Insurance
54:44 – Value of the Dollar
58:42 – Rates, Dollar & Gold
1:04:36 – Bitcoin & Adoption
1:10:37 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Counterparty risks in the financial system can lead to bank failures, putting the entire system in question or gridlock.
- The Fed’s extraordinary policies since 2008 has resulted in a massive buildup of debt, making servicing it impossible at higher rates.
- In this environment, gold provides a guaranteed level of confidence not available with bitcoin.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/S_Mikhailovich
Website: https://www.bullionreserve.com
Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold. Previously, Mr. Mikhailovich was a Portfolio Manager at Falcon Asset Management, overseeing alternative investments in hard assets, including oil and gas properties, timberlands, and agribusiness. During the credit cycle of the early 1990s, he headed a workouts’ team responsible for restructuring multiple businesses in North America and Europe. Mr. Mikhailovich received a M.S. in Business (Finance) from the University of Baltimore and a B.S. from Johns Hopkins University.
Tom welcomes Gary Tanashian, founder and author of ‘Notes from the Rabbit Hole’, about the ingredients necessary to create a big bull market in mining stocks. Gary believes that high gold prices, lower input costs, and increasing momentum are key ingredients. He believes that the Fed will not be able to effectively inflate the system as they have in the past and that the first correction could be harsh if the everything bubble pops in 2023. He believes that gold will become more bullish as inflation peaks and that the momentum will come from non-gold bugs taking notice of the improving fundamentals and starting to invest in the sector.
Gary believes that the gold-silver ratio is a more fine-tuned indicator than the gold-copper ratio and that rising gold-silver ratio can indicate that liquidity is under threat in the broader markets. He also discussed the potential for a new inflationary source and de-dollarization, suggesting that investors look for sound gold mining operations in safer jurisdictions, and ETFs such as GDX and GDXJ. He believes that the sector as a whole will benefit regardless of what individual companies are doing and that precious metals should be separated from industrial metals.
Overall, Gary believes that the ingredients necessary to create a big bull market in mining stocks are in place and that investors should look for the market signals, tune out the noise, and focus on gold as the anchor of the complex. He believes that the Fed has had enough after decades of inflating the markets and that they may be smart enough to recognize that. Gold is seen as a safe haven asset and Gary believes that central banks will become more involved in gold markets, which could lead to higher gold prices.
He discusses the 2008 crisis and how he tried to buy the crisis at the time..
Talking Points From This Episode
- Investing in gold is a good way to protect against inflation and de-dollarization.
- The gold-silver ratio is a better indicator than the gold-copper ratio to determine if liquidity is at risk.
- Look for sound gold mining operations in safer jurisdictions, and consider ETFs such as GDX and GDXJ if individual miners are not an option.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Gary’s Background
2:00 – Fundamentals & Sentiment
5:46 – Miners & Todays Markets
10:18 – Gold & Three Factors
14:17 – Fed Indicators & Yields
20:30 – Deflationary Thesis
24:00 – Feds Playbook?
27:35 – Dedollarization
34:12 – Fiat Ponzis
36:42 – Gold Silver Ratio
40:28 – Gold & Oil Indicators
45:12 – Gold Interest Miners
46:30 – Management & Financials
48:13 – Mining ETFS & Royalties
51:30 – Other Metals
53:48 – Signals & Process
56:20 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NFTRHgt
Website: https://nftrh.com/
Gary Tanashian is the founder and author of the financial market report, ‘Notes From the Rabbit Hole’ (NFTRH), a service that provides technical analysis, sentiment/psychology, and various unique macro market ratio indicators to successfully navigate all market environments.
For over 21 years, Gary has operated a progressive medical device/equipment/component manufacturing company, giving him an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors.
His website/newsletter service, biiwii.com, was created in 2004 to help communicate a message about deeply rooted problems with irreconcilable levels of debt and leverage within the inflated financial system, with his concerns confirmed and message justified with the 2007/2008 financial crisis.
NFTRH Premium was launched right into the teeth of one of these liquidations on September 28, 2008. Anyone can manage a calm market. Not everyone can manage a crash or be ready to deploy capital at a time of max fear. NFTRH has successfully done just that through two major liquidations, a few cyclical bear phases and a whole lot of inflationary bull since 2008.
Gary is a gold bug, favoring a more straightforward monetary system (i.e. one not run entirely on inflation by a central planning agency) that would level the playing field for a much wider segment of the population. He has evolved his analysis to be sure it is dealing with the reality of any given moment to bring success in all market environments.
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss ESG and the mining industry.
Rick Rule argues that ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) should be understood in an entirely different way than proposed by politicians – as technology has made it possible to lift up the lower third of mankind materially speaking. The billionaires flying into Davos shouldn’t have the right to tell others what not to do; free-market forces are better solutions for these problems, rather than imposing regulations or central planning on individuals as suggested by “big thinkers” like Justin Trudeau. Rule suggests Canada’s refusal to sell natural gas as hypocritical in a world becoming more reliant on energy sources like coal.
As societies become more wealthy, the willingness to pay for improvements like the environment and habitat improvements increases. He notes that without the use of modern fertilizers, we would need twice the arable land to merely survive. For much of humanity, food would become scarcer and or unaffordable. India is doing a lot of research into growing more food in a smaller area, and they are now a net food exporter. We should use every available technology to steward the land and the well-being of humanity.
Solutions already exist and do not need to be imposed by central planners. The success of Central Planners is highly questionable. Socialists have accomplished some amazing, albeit negative things.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Environmental concerns should be addressed through technology, free-market forces & individual solutions rather than regulations or top-down approaches proposed by “big thinkers”.
- Canada’s refusal to sell natural gas, hypocritical in a world becoming more reliant on energy sources like coal.
- Food production can be improved through technology, research, and modern fertilizers.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:30 – Rick’s ‘E’SG Position
14:08 – Social-Ist in ESG
17:44 – Governance & Hubris
20:42 – Alternative Energy
24:54 – Governance & Diversity
30:11 – Discussing ESG
30:52 – Efficient Systems?
34:07 – Opposing Ideas & Energy
37:15 – Big Thinkers & Cabals
44:00 – SEC & ESG Guidelines
47:05 – Free Markets & Coercion
48:00 – Biases & Understanding
49:38 – Rule Symposium & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
July Conference: https://www.rulesymposium.com/2023
Bootcamp: https://www.rulesymposium.com/bootcamp
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
Tom welcomes Economist and Wealth Advisor Jonathan Davis back to the show.
Jonathan Davis believes we could be repeating the 2008 banking crisis. Central bankers make incorrect statements about the future and have their own agendas often connected to politics. The Fed is surrounded by incapable academics and often behind the curve.
Real estate mortgages will have to be reset at higher rates, and unemployment is likely to rise. Interest rates and inflation don’t always work together, and there’s little value in bonds for long-term investors. Commodities are in a state of collapse, and manufacturing is in contraction globally. China has a large debt and had to implement harsh lockdowns. Western countries are still closing nuclear plants while Japan and China are opening new reactors.
The next major risk-off event could be soon and gold will rebound when it happens. He advises investing in funds for specific asset classes rather than individual stocks.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – History Repeating?
3:30 – Data Dependent
6:14 – Inflation Ahead?
9:00 – Rates & Charts
14:07 – Long-Term Treasuries?
15:43 – Bias, Fed & Complacency
18:17 – Equities Sell Off & Gold
21:49 – Commodity Crash & China
25:52 – Gold & Heart Conditions
29:13 – U.K Mid Caps & DXY
34:05 – Lagging Miners?
35:52 – Uranium Thoughts
40:45 – Best Markets for Metals
42:46 – Overall Recovery Themes
50:40 – Historic Dow Chart
53:14 – Strategies & Funds
56:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The 2008 banking crisis seems to be repeating.
- Commodities are in a collapse along with global manufacturing.
- Focus on investing with funds for specific asset classes rather than picking individual stocks.
Guest Links:
Website: https://jonathandaviswm.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/j0nathandavis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/boomsbusts
Jonathan Davis BA MBA FCII FPFS, Chartered Financial Planner, is the Wealth Adviser. He is a former Chairman of the London Region of The Institute of Financial Planning (now Chartered Wealth Management Institute).
Jonathan has been delivering wealth advice since 1987. Johnathan established the Jonathan Davis Wealth Management in January 2007, where they provide a niche Wealth Management advising a small number of clients. He established this firm in January 2007.
He has over 1000 appearances in the press, radio, and TV. He is often asked to comment on financial issues.
Tom welcomes Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of GoldStockData.com back to the show.
Don believes that the Fed is killing the banking industry, causing inflation to drop rapidly and leading us into a recession. They’ve been focused on regaining their MMT toolbox, as well as insuring enough liquidity in the market to prevent system failure. This is causing a paradigm shift in the economy. Layoffs will lead to a significant recession and possibly our own “lost decade”.
Credit availability is decreasing and earnings are expected to decline. The odds favor another drop in gold during a market selloff. Silver is undervalued and banks are preventing the metals from outperforming equities.
Changes to Mexican mining laws are raising taxes, and potential for nationalization of mines remains a concern. Dan believes silver will be designated as a strategic metal and ETFs outlawed when shortages occur. He advises selling silver miners before gold miners.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:34 – Fed Rate Hike
7:48 – Low Rates & Printing
16:00 – Slowdowns & Reality
27:02 – Silver & Manipulation
32:34 – Price Targets
37:53 – Mexico Mining Laws
42:50 – Nationalization Risks
47:53 – Outlawing Silver ETFS
50:40 – Canada & No Reserves
52:12 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The Fed is killing the banking industry and driving us towards a recession.
- Silver may be designated as a strategic metal and ETFs banned when shortages occur.
- Changes to Mexican mining laws are increasing costs. Globally nationalization of mines is a concern.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrial
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show.
Tavi discusses how debt is squeezing the margins of companies and earnings are becoming increasingly problematic. Many believe the issues have been resolved, but mis-marking of balance sheets is affecting numerous sectors, such as banking, commercial real estate, and junk bonds. Yields are rising due to excessive debt issuance over recent years and the most aggressive fiscal policy relative to unemployment. With conflicting policies, it’s hard to see gold not doing well in this environment. Oil markets and energy remain tight due to a dearth of capital spending and the use of strategic reserves by governments.
Everyone is now worrying about liquidity, and it appears likely the Fed will have to intervene at some point. Commodity businesses related to precious metals, particularly exploration and development, are trading at historically undervalued levels. This is setting up what might well be one of the best times to invest in the gold space, as the market is yet to understand the resource sector. Numerous companies with major discoveries are still trading at suppressed levels, offering a great opportunity.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Rates, Debt & Consequences
6:50 – Factors to Consider
14:30 – Central Bank Reserves
18:30 – Bond Performance
26:00 – Energy & Investment Themes
33:00 – Explorers & Producers
40:00 – Capital Positioning
45:30 – Other Metals
52:00 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta
► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital
► Website https://crescat.net
► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/
Talking Points From This Episode:
► Outlook for the economy in an ever increasing debt system.
► Lack of capital expenditures in resources will exacerbate problems in energy and metals.
► Resource companies with solid fundamentals continue to trade at historic undervaluations.
Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong, CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd. Martin is a hedge fund manager, international advisor and author.
Martin speaks out on US’s involvement in Ukraine, the risks around Ukraine joining NATO, and the effects of deglobalization. He is also concerned about energy scarcity, inflation, and the capabilities of coming digital currency systems. He believes the US was the instigator of the conflict in Ukraine and never intended to honor the Minsk agreement.
World leaders are irresponsible and that the US has never told the truth about any war. Martin suggests that the new reserve currency will be digital, and that the US is heading towards stagflation rather than recession.
He believes that the US is heading for war, with the neocons in full control, and that the 2024 election will not be fair. There is too much at stake in politics today. He is critical of censorship laws, and worries that this is just a part of a larger agenda.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Conflict & Ukraine
9:40 – ICC & Jurisdiction
13:26 – Ukraine History
15:30 – International Trade
23:30 – Inflation Globally
30:04 – War & Energy Scarcity
31:33 – Recession & Consumers
37:48 – CBDC & Adoption
41:10 – Wealth Protection
44:20 – Gold Misconceptions
50:58 – Trending Concerns
53:58 – Power & Media
56:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Martin believes the US was the instigator of the conflict in Ukraine and never intended to honor the Minsk agreement.
- He suggests the new reserve currency will be digital, and the US is heading towards stagflation rather than recession.
- The US is heading for war, with the Neocons in full control, and that the 2024 election will not be fair.
- He is concerned about new censorship laws being part of a larger agenda.
Guest Links:
Website: http://armstrongeconomics.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/strongeconomics
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter.
“In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.”
His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the general public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical patterns and market behavior in timing, price, and crisis to understand better and identify potential future trends, using an extensive monetary database and advanced proprietary models.
Tom welcomes Jeff Clark back to the show! Jeff is the Founder of GoldAdvisor.com and author of the new book “Paydirt.” He started outlining the book during Covid, with the goal of making it entertaining and engaging, yet simple and straightforward. Sixteen other experts from the industry also contributed to the book.
Jeff believes we are on the cusp of another bull market cycle, and mining is one of the few areas left with good return potential. When it enters the mania phase, he won’t hesitate to sell, as it’s important to lock in profits. He urges investors to not be afraid to sell miners, as they should be seen as girlfriends rather than wife material.
Jeff then explains the Lassonde Curve and how it can help investors understand where a mining equity is during the lifecycle of a developing project. He also stresses the importance of discipline when positioning, recognizing red flags in miners, and taking advice from those in the industry.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Learning how to pick good miners and why Jeff wrote “Paydirt”.
- Why excellent opportunity remains in the mining sector.
- Important lessons from geologists and timing in the mining cycle.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Paydirt Picking Miners
4:08 – Passion & Opportunity
6:34 – Gold Rush Mind Set
9:13 – Gold, Silver, or Stocks
12:18 – Miners & Insomnia
14:53 – Phase of the Cycle
18:12 – Lessons & Gains
19:27 – Silver Demand & Uses
22:15 – Energy & Industrial Uses
24:05 – Silver & Fuel Rods
25:45 – Metals & Price
27:10 – Geologist Lessons
30:05 – The Lassonde Curve
33:20 – Timing & Mining Cycle
36:46 – Royalty & Streaming?
38:36 – The Deal Breakers
40:36 – Portfolio & Discipline
42:54 – Entry and Exits
44:42 – Information Resources
46:16 – Paydirt & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://thegoldadvisor.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheGoldAdvisor
Website: https://goldsilver.com
Jeff Clark is an accomplished metals and mining analyst, author and speaker, recognized as a global authority on precious metals. His roots in the industry are deep, with an award-winning gold panner father and family-owned mining claims in California, Arizona, and Nevada. Jeff has just authored his new book “Paydirt!” which is available at thegoldadvisor.com. Jeff is an active investor and writer, and has previously served as senior editor for the renowned publication BIG GOLD, as well as Senior Precious Metals Analyst for Hard Assets Alliance and a Senior Editor for Casey Research. He is currently on the board at Strategic Wealth Preservation, a bullion storage facility in Grand Cayman, and provides analysis and market commentary for GoldSilver.com. Jeff is a regular conference speaker, including at Cambridge House and Sprott Resources events, the Silver Summit, and many others.
Tom welcomes back Keith Weiner, the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals, to the show. Keith discusses his Guide to the Gold Market and what investors really need to know. He explains that gold tracks the loss in value of the dollar, which is designed to lose purchasing power over time; and, how gold acts as a benchmark for the rest of the economic system. He also argues that desperate measures like tariffs end up creating more problems than they solve, and that the 2008 financial crisis was caused by a vicious spiral of markdowns on bonds.
Keith explains how the dollar is a relationship of being owed and how the incentives to continue this behavior remain compelling. He believes that the only thing that can replace the dollar is gold, but currently there is little interest. He argues that Comex inventory movements have little impact on the price and that historical analogies for gold can be useful because history does tend to rhyme. He also argues that the utility of gold at the margin does not diminish when supply increases; it acts as an objective measuring stick for economic value.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Gold Misconceptions
7:36 – Tariffs & Incentives
12:00 – Gold & Interest Rates
19:25 – Banks & Bonds
25:50 – Imminent Dollar Death?
31:00 – Dollar Demand & Trust
39:44 – Commodity Currencies
44:20 – Price Vs. Production
47:10 – Silver & Mint Demand
49:46 – Manipulation
52:25 – Comex Inventory Flows
54:13 – Past Cycles & Today
56:54 – Gold & Counterparties
1:00:28 – Measuring Wealth
1:01:18 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold tracks the loss in value of the dollar, which is designed to lose purchasing power over time.
- The only thing that can replace the dollar is gold, but currently there is little interest.
- The utility of gold is it’s ability to act as an objective measuring stick for economic value.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/RealKeithWeiner
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Field Guide: https://monetary-metals.com/how-not-to-think-about-gold-lp/
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Personal Blog: https://keithweinereconomics.com/
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the program.
Michael compares the huge increase in debt leading up to the 2008 financial crisis and the current debt bubble. Pento highlighted the $68.9 trillion in total non-financial debt that is currently outstanding, which is double the amount of debt prior to the crisis. He notes that this was caused by the Federal Reserve taking interest rates to 1% and then to 0%, which created an artificial edifice known as the US economy. Pento described how the Fed’s balance sheet went from $800 billion in 2007 to $9 trillion in 2022, which caused misallocations of capital and asset bubbles. He warns that the only way to bring down inflation was to pop the bubbles, but that this would cause further economic destruction. He explains that this cycle of inflation-deflation would eventually lead to an inflation oppression, in which high rates of inflation would be combined with low economic growth. He coined this term “infla-pression” back in 2012.
Michael discusses the four horsemen of the economic apocalypse, which are cash, US sovereign debt, the dollar and shorts. He believes that the Federal Reserve’s BTFB has prevented a liquidity crisis and created a number of zombie banks. He has been investing in gold and miners, and his current allocation is 14%. He is waiting to see further erosion in economic growth before he increases his gold allocation to 20%. He advises that 5% of investments should be in physical gold, and the rest could be in liquid or paper gold. He believes that now is the time for people to buy the dip in precious metals.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – 2008 Debt Crisis & Today
3:30 – A Perfect System
5:45 – Yellen & Q.E. Lite
6:52 – Inflationary Cycles
8:57 – Asset Bubbles & Inflation
14:36 – Infla-pression
16:00 – The Four Horseman
19:47 – Rates & Allocations
22:05 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The US non-financial debt is double the amount prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
- Michael coined the term “infla-pression” which is a combination of high inflation and low economic growth.
- Michael advises that now is likely the time to buy the dip in precious metals.
Guest Links:
Website: http://pentoport.com
E-Mail: mpento@pentoport.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Last Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kv5wARHQcMY
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore’s commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim’s sales network. He is the author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse” and has a weekly podcast called “The Mid-week Reality Check.”
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Greg Weldon. Greg is publisher of Weldon Live and an Veteran Commodity trader.
Almost a trillion dollars of consumer credit has been created, and there is fear that banks will scale back lending, resulting in further market declines. If central banks pull back from lending, problems could arise quickly. A contraction in credit is possible, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be testing the boundaries.
Paul Volcker is Powell’s hero, but the debt load today is much higher than it was in the 1980s. Inflation base effects are just now starting to kick in. We could see further declines in energy, which will temporarily impact inflation. The Fed may need to back off sooner than they wanted.
The charges on credit cards are at record levels due to people’s need to pay bills. Everything is costing more, and borrowing at high interest rates is a problem. Rents are near all-time highs, so the pain will persist. Greg believes the Fed is almost done and could hold this level, or even start easing. They appear to have enough ammunition for the next recession.
Everyone knows there are issues coming with pensions and other parts of the financial system. Difficult times are coming and people need to prepare. When looking to protect financial assets, it will become increasingly difficult. Stocks may rise, but inflation may eat those gains, making it hard to keep up.
The writing is on the wall in regards to the US dollar and its manipulation of other nations’ economies. Now that China’s economy is surpassing that of the US, the global tone is changing. Lastly, he talks about his thoughts on gold targets, real rates, and the direction of the dollar.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Fed & Consumer Credit
3:38 – MMT & Lack of Growth
6:09 – Bank Deposit Concerns
8:20 – Inflation Re-Targeting
10:22 – Consumer Concerns
17:44 – Fed: 1980s & Today
26:35 – Public Debt & Pensions
29:15 – Diversifying Globally
32:36 – Inflation & Energy
36:12 – Dollar & China
39:10 – Gold Targets
44:37 – Real Rates Outlook
47:04 – Other Sectors
49:50 – Commodity Nations
51:32 – Energy & Gas Inventories
54:05 – Nickel Fraud
56:29 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- High consumer credit, combined with banks’ potential scaling back of lending, could result in a contraction in credit and further market declines.
- Everyone needs to prepare for difficult times ahead, as it will become increasingly difficult to protect financial assets.
- The global financial tone is changing, which could impact gold targets, real rates, and the direction of the dollar.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.weldononline.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/WeldonLIVE
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8JMaGgCaqV-IDNP37AnNdw
E-Mail: sales@weldononline.com
Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator.
Adam discusses the seasonality in gold, which typically sees three different rally periods each year, similar to agricultural commodities. However, there is no fundamental reason for gold’s spring rallies – it seems people are simply more optimistic during this time, leading to more buying of gold stocks, starting around mid-March and ending around May.
Adam explains how moving averages are useful for determining if equities are overbought or oversold, and suggests raising trailing stops to preserve gains when it is significantly overbought. He notes that the Fed is under pressure from other central banks that are pausing on hiking, causing huge problems in the economy and instability in banks – rate hikes are hitting ordinary people hard, and those with mortgages could become increasingly vulnerable.
Adam expects the Fed to hike one more time and then pause to see the impact, closely monitoring labor markets data, although he is aware that some of the U.S. BLS data is highly suspect. Alternative data sets are showing declining labor growth, and if labor markets are far weaker than expected, this could have outsized consequences when Fed policy is mis-applied. He believes that the dual mandate should not exist, and the Fed’s focus should simply be on price stability – inflation is just an effect caused by too much money in the system, and the value of money should be set by free markets.
Silver is seen as a sentiment gauge for gold and has been doing well, although futures buying is waning. Gold above 2000 is attracting a lot of interest.
Lastly, he discusses the miners and why investor sentiment is taking time to adjust to this new market environment.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Spring & Seasonality
6:06 – C.B. Hike Pauses & Fed
9:04 – Feds Path Forward
10:12 – Expectations & Pausing
12:22 – Jobs, The BLS & JOLTS
22:26 – Feds Dual Mandate?
24:55 – COT Positioning
28:02 – Institution Interest
31:40 – Base Effects & CPI
33:50 – Silver Markets & ETFS
37:09 – Miners & Sentiment
38:48 – Efficiency & Production
42:44 – Information Sources
46:22 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Seasonality and sentiment in the precious metal markets.
- The Feds path forward and the problems with it’s dual mandate.
- Silver as a sentiment gauge for gold and institutional interest.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.zealllc.com/
Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.
By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.
Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life. Adam is a Christian saved by Jesus Christ. He and his wife are greatly blessed with 2 children, and they live in Colorado.
Tom welcomes back the dynamic charting duo Patrick Karim and Kevin Wadsworth. They discuss how we are starting to see a potential breakout for gold as it touches multiple points while building out a new trend line. On the monthly chart, we have nearly had a confirmed breakout. If this month closes around the current level, it will confirm a monthly breakout. We need to see capital flows move into gold, which you can spot with ratios like gold to the SPX. It doesn’t take much capital rotation for gold to breakout. The gold charts display evidence of being far away from their natural position and there is a build up of latent investment energy that could easily be explosive.
Patrick explains how Ichimoku clouds work in technical analysis by measuring market strength over time. Markets can break through when clouds are narrow, and you should treat these, along with other indicators like moving averages. Many of their charts point to a high point in metals markets towards the end of the 2020s.
It is important to consistently question your analysis as new information arrives and compare past bull markets to see where things may head in the coming years. They provide a demo live analysis for determining the strength and entry point for a market. Initial breakouts are often not the move you are waiting for, as markets take time to establish a base and wash out the bag holders.
They analyze the Dollar Index Milkshake theory to measure the potential weight of evidence. Gold tracks purchasing power more than the dollar index. Much dollar demand comes from overseas, and this may be gradually changing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Golds Breakout?
6:12 – Gold/SPX & ASA
13:00 – Profit Levels
15:13 – Ichimoku Clouds
19:22 – Historic Analysis
25:50 – Breakout Ratings
44:00 – Thesis & Plans
48:24 – DXY Milkshake Theory
58:05 – Dollar Demand Surge?
1:02:55 – Miner Paradigm
1:10:27 – Probabilities
1:14:26 – Uranium ETF Chart
1:22:00 – Crypto Thoughts
1:23:21 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthStarCharts
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 2000s. The financial crash of 2008 got Kevin hooked, and he gradually became aware of the similarities between forecasting the future weather and forecasting future price movements in the financial markets. Around that time, he read an abridged version of Strauss and Howes ‘The Fourth Turning’, which intrigued him.
The cyclical nature of markets mirrors the cyclical nature of the weather and seasons. The process of gathering evidence via multiple computer models that assess the likelihood of all possible future outcomes works just as well for predicting the future price of gold for indicating whether it’s likely to rain on the weekend or not.
His focus is on tuning out all the noise and presenting clear and uncluttered charts while gathering all the evidence. Kevin tries to have no bias, but instead follows the weight of evidence. He says, I’m not a bull or a bear; I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it.
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
Tom welcomes Adrian Day back to the show, and they discuss the lag in economic consequences as a result of rate hikes and changes in monetary policy. Adrian notes that the impacts vary depending on market sector, and that the overall economic effect has yet to be felt. He explains that during lockdowns, spending patterns changed, and coming out of them, the spending habits changed again, with savings rates collapsing back to pre-COVID levels and credit card balances rising. Consumers are feeling the pinch, and more debt defaults and corporate bankruptcies are likely to come.
Adrian then discusses three areas where they are finding yield in this environment. He is not a major bull on the price of oil, but does not expect a major decline either. He also notes that due to a slowing global economy, some ESG targets may not be achievable for a while. He is looking for opportunity in copper and lithium companies.
He believes that the market is underestimating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s will to cause a recession, and that the Fed is willing to see markets decline significantly. As such, he feels that the markets are being overly optimistic in assuming that rates will decline by the end of the year. In his opinion, central banks have entered a complex situation of their own making, and cannot kill inflation without causing a recession and further problems in the financial system. He believes that gold is far and away the best asset class to hold during periods of stagflation.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Monetary Policy Lag
11:12 – Bank Failures
14:15 – Bonds & Stock Balancing
16:25 – Finding Yield
27:32 – Global Economic Outlook
32:10 – Electrification
35:58 – Geographic Diversification
39:17 – Gold Price & Inflation
48:55 – Bailouts & Moral Hazard
51:57 – Feds Path Forward
56:43 – Commodity Countries
58:10 – Consensus Thoughts
1:00:40 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- The economic effects of rate hikes and changes in monetary policy are still yet to be seen, but consumer spending patterns have already changed drastically.
- Adrian Day is looking for yield opportunities in copper and lithium companies.
- He believes gold is the best asset class to hold during periods of stagflation.
- The market is underestimating Jerome Powell’s will to cause a recession and see equity declines.
Guest Links:
Website: https://adriandayassetmanagement.com/
Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.
Tom welcomes James Anderson back from SD Bullion to the show. James discusses the recent surge in gold demand due to problems in the banking system, with some depositors buying up gold out of concern. They have seen record volume which has prompted them to place temporary minimum order limits, as it is difficult to increase staffing levels to meet this sudden demand.
Central banks have been buying gold at near record levels, likely exceeding any past historic period, and much of this gold is flowing to eastern countries as they seek greater degrees of sovereignty.
James believes we are on the cusp of a mega bull run in gold. Many investors will have to learn the hard way since the US has not experienced difficult times for many decades.
He expresses concern about ETFs possibly not having the metals they claim, and eventually when demand exceeds supply, bullion supply will become scarce. He also warns of bad actors in the retail space who push overpriced metals, charge terrible fees, and pilfer from the vulnerable. He advises sticking with physical bullion and buying from local coin shops or reputable dealers online, with transparent pricing and reasonable premiums.
Lastly, James discusses the currency situation in Turkey, which has declined over the past decade, and the increase in gold flowing into that country.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Gold Market & Banks
3:34 – Dealers & Staffing
6:00 – Central Bank Buying
8:28 – Gold Demand & Prices
10:48 – Public Perception
17:26 – Gold & Industry
19:28 – Silver Supply/Demand
22:10 – Silver Squeeze
25:22 – Dollar & BRICS
28:00 – CBDC Currencies
32:50 – Fraud in Metals
36:27 – Crypto & Scams
39:16 – Industry Surprises
40:25 – Wrap Up & Turkey
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold demand has exploded and Central Banks are buying at near record levels.
- The US dollar is bearish long-term as the BRICS roll out alternative payment systems, which will eventually lead to the CBDC solution.
- Some retailers are pushing overpriced metals and charging terrible fees, look for reputable dealers.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameshenryand
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/sdbullion/videos
Website: https://sdbullion.com/
Blog: https://sdbullion.com/blog
James Book: https://sdbullion.com/21st-century-gold-rush-book
Cat Highlight: https://youtu.be/xqtr6spMCGs?t=269
A bullion buyer years before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, James Anderson is a grounded precious metals researcher, content creator, and physical investment grade bullion professional. He has authored several Gold & Silver Guides and been featured on the History Channel, Zero Hedge, Gold-Eagle, Silver Seek, Value Walk, and many more.
Given that repressed commodity values are now near 100-year low-level valuations versus large US stocks, investors and savers should buy and maintain a prudent physical bullion position. Continued stimulus and unfunded promises will only debase the dollar further.
Tom welcomes Lee Adler and Bob Coleman back to the show to discuss the banking system, the role of the U.S. Treasury, and the current state of the banking and employment markets. Adler explains that money pumping by the Fed ended a year ago and that tracking the ICI data on money market funds will be a big key to watch. He also mentioned the potential risks in the banking system which could lead to another crash in equities. Coleman and Adler discussed the current employment market and consumer debt levels, and how the passive investing craze could lead to a lack of liquidity in the market. They highlight the importance of storing gold in a safe jurisdiction and the risks associated with custodians.
Adler suggested that the best indicator of when the next crash may occur is to look for someone calling gold a pet rock again, or for gold to be touted as the only insurance policy. Coleman believes the Fed’s CPI numbers are designed to manipulate the public and that gold is a good indicator of confidence. He also gives advice on how to understand the monetary policy landscape while filtering out the politics.
The two concluded by suggesting investors watch the return on their money due to inflation and taxes. Adler and Coleman’s conversation provided insight into macro liquidity, the risks associated with the banking system, and the importance of understanding the monetary policy landscape.
0:00 – Introductions
0:55 – Macro Liquidity
5:15 – Fed Reaction Mode
7:09 – Q.E. Vs. Bailouts
12:54 – Banking Sector Problems
17:10 – Deposit Outflows & Stocks
22:34 – Reverse Repos
28:30 – Debt Ceiling
31:30 – Rates & Bank Runs
40:03 – Good Ole Yellen
42:06 – Depositor Insurance
44:57 – Gold & Confidence
49:44 – Recession Thoughts
53:30 – Gold & Cycles
57:56 – More Bank Turmoil?
1:00:28 – Gold & Liquidity Flows
1:04:12 – Commercial Real Estate
1:06:48 – Consumer Debt & Layoffs
1:12:42 – Manipulation & Risk
1:16:14 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Macro liquidity is an important factor to watch to assess the state of the market and whether the situation is stabilizing.
- Gold is a good indicator of confidence in the markets and can be used as an insurance policy against a crash.
- When investing, it is important to consider the risks associated with custodians and exchanges, and to understand the monetary policy landscape.
Guest Links – Lee Adler:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/lee_adler
Website: https://liquiditytrader.com
Articles: https://wallstreetexaminer.com/
Forum: https://capitalstool.com
Lee Adler is published on LiquidityTrader.com, The Wall Street Examiner, and Capitalstool. He also published and was the lead analyst for Sure Money Investor and developed David Stockman’s Contra Corner.
He has been in finance since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities.
Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner Lee was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years and specialized in the analysis of failed properties. He also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s.
Lee has been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since he was a teenager. Yogi Berra said, “You can observe a lot by watching. I’ve seen a lot through the years, and have incorporated much of it into my research.”
He says, “I’m not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I’ve watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I’m happy to share that experience with you.”
Guest Links – Bob Coleman:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Tom welcomes back Senior Portfolio Manager Bob Thompson to the program. Bob discusses the risks associated with the mining industry in light of a potential downturn. He explains that the lack of capital investment in mining, energy, and manufacturing means that the work done today won’t result in supply for a decade, so any tapering of the Fed’s policies will result in commodity price spikes due to the lack of available supply. Bob cautions that recession talk often hides underlying structural problems and affects commodities like oil that are heavily reliant on the economy, as well as gold which tends to do the best when the Fed reduces interest rates.
Generalist funds have around zero percent of their money in gold, and there is potential for tens of billions of dollars to enter the sector as gold outperforms the S&P. Small sectors like metals and uranium are likely to benefit from increased capital, as exploration and development have been neglected. Bob believes that gold, silver, and uranium all have great opportunities ahead of them and that investors should look for companies with the lowest all-in sustaining cost, as their profits will increase with any rise in price.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:55 – Background & Focus
6:23 – Risk & Regional Banks
9:43 – Fed Policy Ahead
16:50 – Economy & Markets
19:04 – Oil Vs. Gold & Demand
21:15 – Persistent Inflation?
24:53 – Bonds & Real Rates
30:23 – Stocks & Large Caps
33:18 – The Ultimate Asset
35:29 – Gold Fundamentals
37:09 – Miner Input Costs
43:09 – Institution Interest
46:35 – The Mining Clock
57:03 – Companies & Royalties
1:00:42 – Other Commodities
1:04:23 – Protecting Capital
1:07:42 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Regional banking in the United States is at risk due to the Fed’s continuous rate adjustments.
- Investors should look for companies with the lowest all-in sustaining cost for gold and silver investments.
- Recession concers can lead to hidden risks, such as the historic problems like those of WorldCom and Enron.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https:/twitter.com/bobthompsonrj
Website: https://www.raymondjames.ca/
Website: https://bobthompson.ca
When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.
Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada’s leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.
He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada’s Top Stock Pickers, a “must-read” for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean’s, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments.
Bob is actively involved with the community as a member of Canada Company: an organization committed to developing and supporting initiatives that help our men and women of the Canadian Armed Forces. He has also been a licensed pilot since the age of 16, and notes flying as one of his passions in life.
Tom welcomes Vincent Lanci back to the show to discuss the importance of this week’s gold close. If it is the highest ever, it could mean bullish continuation trends as money gets reallocated. He noted the changes he has seen in the gold market, such as Basel III putting a floor in gold, and the eastward shift of gold demand. He discussed the lack of trust in the metals markets, the differences between gold and silver, and the correlations between different commodities.
Vincent discussed the potential path forward for inflation in the context of the current recession, and the actions the ‘BRICS’ are taking to separate their economies from US dollar hegemony. He outlined Zoltan Pozsar’s concept of the “Three Prices of Money,” where investors should have a piece of the old economy, a piece of the potential new economy, and a bridge between the two.
Overall, Vince discussed why this week’s gold close is so important, and how investors should be prepared to navigate a changing economy as businesses move to other countries and new technologies and renewable energy sources become more prevalent.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Golds Performance
9:10 – Inflection Points
14:43 – Gold Flowing East
20:53 – Manipulation & Trust
25:18 – Silver Lagging?
29:58 – Other Commodities
35:14 – Recession & Inflation
41:08 – Long Gold & Short Bonds
42:44 – Zoltan Pozsar & BRICS
47:00 – Exter’s Pyramid
49:37 – Bond Demand, YCC & Japan
59:20 – Actionable Advice
1:06:35 – Bullion’N’Boobs
1:09:56 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- This week’s gold close could potentially be the highest weekly, monthly and quarterly close ever, signaling bullish continuation trends.
- Price leadership has moved east due to the East-West cold war and de-globalization, resulting in more gold flowing east and a potential end of the petro dollar.
- Zoltan Pozsar’s idea of the three goals suggests investors should own a piece of the old economy (black gold), a piece of the potential new economy (white gold), and a bridge between the two (yellow gold) to prepare for the US dollar weakening in buying power.
Guest Links:
Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/PalisadesTomSpecial
Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Sorenthek
ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Boobs & Bullion: https://twitter.com/boobsbullion
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay’s predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS’s parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003 Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000 he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the “Pit-Trader” user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss current events in the banking system.
Rick discusses the systemic risks that exist in the commercial banking system, citing the example of Silicon Valley Bank. He provides advice on how the average depositor can assess the financial stability of their financial institution, such as looking at the percentage of total capital represented by equity, the duration mismatch, and the amount of very liquid assets relative to the deposit base. He also warned of a potential “perfect storm” in commercial real estate if banks become less willing to lend and if high yield ETFs experience mass redemptions.
Rule believes that banks should prioritize security and confidence as the primary goal, with diversity and inclusion as a secondary goal. He advises investors to do their research and read balance sheets and income statements to ensure their money is held in a safe place. Natural resources have been systemically underinvested in for the last several decades and that they will likely outperform other investment classes over the next 10 years. For most of his money, he is chasing beta, or outperformance of natural resources relative to other investment classes, by investing in the biggest and best companies in the sector. For the remaining 20-25%, he is looking for alpha by speculating, particularly through private placements. He believes that the best time to achieve alpha is in a market panic, and that investors should be willing to bet big when the odds are stacked in their favor.
Rick also hosts bootcamps to help educate investors and pass on the lessons he has learned throughout his career. In retirement, he is still working 40-50 hours a week, but only on things he enjoys and finds fulfilling. He believes that high interest rates are not enough to change his outlook on gold, as long as real interest rates remain negative.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Research and read balance sheets and income statements to ensure your money is held in a safe place.
- Natural resources have been systemically underinvested in for the last several decades and may outperform other investment classes in the next 10 years.
- Bet big when the odds are stacked in your favor to achieve alpha during a market panic.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Banking Risks
5:17 – Yields & Belief
10:50 – Return Free Risk
15:29 – Purchasing Power
18:07 – Deposit Guarantees
21:25 – Regulatory Environment
24:38 – Security & Free Markets
27:49 – Banking Risks & Leverage
33:40 – Low Rates & Contagion
36:32 – Safely Parking Cash?
39:05 – Portfolio Structure
45:14 – Market Tops
47:42 – Boot Camps
51:45 – Semi-Retirement
53:45 – Rates & Selling Thesis
55:28 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickrule
Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
July Conference: https://www.rulesymposium.com/2023
Bootcamp: https://www.rulesymposium.com/bootcamp
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
Tom welcomes back Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics – Johns Hopkins University.
Steve discusses Austrian economist Felix Somary and explains how he was one of the few who understood exchange rates and had a full view of economic reality. This understanding is lacking today by most in power positions. Modern economic theory is very narrowly defined, and most lack that broad level of knowledge.
The Fed has some 700+ economists working for them, but they all have similar understanding. We see these failings appear with the recent bank failures. It’s obvious the banking system has large-scale problems. We’re bordering on incompetence by those who are supposed to oversee these banks.
They’ve doubled down on ignoring the money supply, arguing it has nothing to do with economic activity. Most of what you read in the financial press is either irrelevant or plain wrong. They are just restating Fed opinion.
The Fed let the money supply increase at an unprecedented rate, and then we’re surprised by the inflation. Now they are talking about tightening while increasing Federal fund rates. The money supply has shrunk by 2.3% which is causing pressure on banks. They have shrunk it by too much. We’re still in quantitative tightening and the bank bailouts does not impact it.
He explains his gold sentiment score service and how it can be useful for trades. A computer is examining articles hourly related to gold and the markets to determine current sentiment. It’s a form of text analysis that can be used as a buy/sell signal.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Economic Ignorance
4:36 – Federal Reserve System
9:43 – Recession & Whiplash
14:10 – Bank Crisis & Easing?
18:19 – Money Supply & GDP Growth
21:19 – Hyperinflation & Countries
22:55 – Game-Changing Moments?
29:10 – Gold Sentiment Score
35:40 – Primary Data Sources
40:18 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Economic theory and the problems with the narrow focus of modern economists.
- Why most of the financial press is either wrong or irrelevant.
- The impact of money supply changes on the economy.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/steve_hanke
Website: https://thegoldsentimentreport.com
Website: https://www.cato.org/people/hanke.html
Website: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/about/co-directors/
Email: hanke@jhu.edu
Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel.
In the past, Prof. Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a Member of the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors in Maryland in 1976-77, as a Senior Economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors in 1981-82, and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. Prof. Hanke served as a State Counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He was also an Advisor to the Presidents of Bulgaria in 1997- 2002, Venezuela in 1995-96, and Indonesia in 1998.
He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro.
Prof. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia.
Prof. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Universität Liechtenstein, the Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the Free University of Tbilisi, Istanbul Kültür University, Varna Free University, and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics in recognition of his scholarship on exchange-rate regimes.
Prof. Hanke and his wife, Liliane, reside in Baltimore and Paris.
This is a rebroadcast of our recent Twitter Spaces conversation on banking, metals, trust, cryptocurrencies and the faltering global dollar system.
Bob discusses the problems in the banking system and the tough position the Fed is between preserving the system and preventing inflation. They’re trying to slow the contagion, but we may be experiencing a false sense of security. If things break from here, we could see things get out of control. The belief is the Fed will always have our back, but in today’s world there is considerable risk.
Reggie Middleton expresses his concerns around the SEC’s use of selective enforcement, particularly in the crypto space. There is a length discussion on building trust in digital assets and potential risks with some types of cryptocurrencies.
Jaime and David discuss the usefulness of both Gold and Bitcoin. We need both systems if we are to get through the coming financial reset. It will be important to have investments in various areas because it remains uncertain what the future financial system will be based on. David argues that a bi-metallic standard may once again become important.
Bob Coleman – Idaho Armored Vault
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jaime Carrasco – Portfolio Manager at Canaccord Genuity Inc
Twitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrasco
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/
Website: Canaccord Genuity https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/
David Morgan – Morgan Report
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
Blog: https://www.themorganreport.com/blog
Jim Hunter – Registered Commodity Broker with Allendale
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1
Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Reggie Middleton
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ReggieMiddleton
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The coming global bust and why inflation will persist.
- We’re in the last decade of a forty plus year supercycle.
- His thoughts on energy in the near-term and during the bust.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Market Re-Cap
4:29 – Meltup Rally Thesis
7:27 – Timelines
9:29 – Fed Policy & Liquidity
16:30 – Policy Lag & Inflation
20:00 – Rates & Liquidity
23:12 – Politics & Powell
29:00 – ECB/BOJ Pivots & Gold
37:44 – Metals Reaction
41:52 – Energy Prices
46:40 – Overall Summary
52:03 – Wrap Up
Guest Links
Email: Dhunter31@gmail.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
Tom welcomes back Francis Hunt, Founder of “The Market Sniper” to the show.
Francis discusses the bond market bottom of March 2020 and the series of rate hikes that came afterward. We’re beginning to see the lagging effects of the Feds policy. In addition, there are a series of long-term demographic shifts which are placing great pressure on the system. Both growth and inflation are now moving in the wrong direction, and these contractions will be deeply uncomfortable.
He shows the current gold chart and how it appears we are breaking trend lines. He argues that silver will also outperform, it will just occur in a later secondary phase. Gold against most currencies is nearing new highs. It is winning by doing exactly what it should do.
Francis discusses where silver will head under various scenarios. The markets today are entirely different from what we had in the 1980s. No one has ever lived in an era like the one we find ourselves in today.
The purpose of CBDC’s is to create reliance on the state. It is a massive control mechanism. You will want to watch out for new dangerous laws because we’re dealing with psychopathic, motivated, and relentless control freaks.
He discusses the positives and potential pitfalls of crypto markets in the coming financial system.
Bonds are unlikely to drop to the lows of a couple of years ago. It seems likely we are in new territory, but a pullback to the two percent level is possible. We’re entering a period of slowing growth and reduced demand, which is affecting the oil markets.
Lastly, Francis discusses where markets will likely head based on the ten-year treasury outlook, and it’s recent record. Finally, he notes that energy is forecasting hard times ahead.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Rates & Contagion
5:32 – Gold Chart & Structures
8:56 – Gold Vs. Currencies
19:18 – Gold/Silver Ratio
25:30 – Timelines & Spikes
31:07 – The CBDC Push?
42:02 – Usefulness of Crypto?
47:47 – Technical Analysis & Oil
1:00:12 – Natural Gas & Uranium
1:03:22 – Crushing Consumers
1:04:30 – US 10Y & 2Y History
1:07:55 – Narratives & Risks
1:09:20 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Analysis of Fed policy and demographic shifts in the U.S.
- Gold chart and why it is breaking out against all currencies.
- The reasons for lag in silver and why it will outperform in a later stage.
- Energy market outlook and concerns around recession.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniper
Website: https://themarketsniper.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals.
He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.
Tom welcomes back our other favorite Tom, the Tom Luongo, to discuss the recent banking crisis and the Fed’s involvement in it. Luongo believes Jerome Powell is trying to return to a classic regional banking model. He explains how the Fed is betraying the Eurodollar system by having SOFR at odds with LIBOR.
Luongo believes Powell wants to undo the damages of the last 15 years and feels it is important to understand the motives of the Fed and globalists.
He also suggests that the Fed took out Silicon Valley Bank due to its involvement in crypto, which could have created an escape velocity for trust in those systems, and challenged the Federal Reserve’s control of monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Powell’s move to guarantee the hole in the regional banks’ balance sheets has had a positive impact on the local credit unions, which can now start offering positive savings rates again. Additionally, the Fed has created a sump pump for US Treasury demand here in the US banking system, which transfers risk overseas and helps protect credit spreads. Christine Lagarde has been attempting to manage credit spreads, but is running out of bullets.
Mr. Luongo discusses the recent shift in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, which saw the appointment of Ueda as the new head of the bank. Tom suggests that this signals the end of Quantitative Easing in Japan, and that this could lead to the unwinding of the low-yield carry trades that had been supported by the BOJ’s yield curve control. He then explains how this could impact Christine Lagarde’s efforts to maintain credit spread stability, as the BOJ’s yield curve control had been supporting her efforts. Finally, he speculates that this could lead to a weakening of the Euro, potentially leading to its breaking the parity with the Dollar and going as low as 60 or 70 cents.
Tom explains the differences between Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell and why Yellen is seen as a political animal. He then explains the differences between the East and West in terms of their monetary systems – the East is moving towards a commodity-backed system, while the West is trying to maintain the old system. Tom concludes by discussing the speed of capital flows, and the need for trust in order for a new system to work.
Lastly, the Toms also discussed the importance of reading widely and steel-manning your own arguments to have a strong foundation for forming opinions. Luongo also encouraged listeners to be cautious but avoid panic, and to understand that Davos and other powerful players are still making moves on the board.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Banking Crisis & FED
6:36 – Targeting Inflation
14:46 – Eurodollar & Crypto
17:26 – Bail-Outs & Capitalism
22:10 – Spreads & Domestic Mkt.
29:25 – Rate Risks & Europe
34:20 – Japan & BOJ & Europe
45:10 – LIBOR vs. SOFR
52:33 – Yellen Vs. Powell
58:10 – New Monetary System?
1:02:00 – Dollar & Global Trade
1:10:46 – Remonetizing Gold?
1:18:28 – Picking Rates?
1:20:00 – The Bigger Picture
1:23:42 – Learning & Growth
1:31:14 – The Anti-Info Age
Talking Points From This Episode:
- How Davos and other powerful players still making moves on the board.
- The importance of raising interest rates to 6-7% and focusing on balance sheet and dollar flow reduction.
- The potential de-dollarization of the global economy due to US policies.
- The need for a gold-backed currency to solve the US’ unfunded liability problem.
Guest Links:
Website: https://tomluongo.me
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, “I’ve since grown up a lot.”
Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company’s business model.
Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses.
As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs.
To sum up:
“Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along.”
He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them.
In short, he says, “I’m a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker.”
Lastly, He states, “I own a few guns.”
Tom welcomes Robert Moriarty back to the program to discuss the latest in interesting times in finance. Bob explains where the money is really coming from to bail out the recent failures in the banking system, noting that the $200 billion figure has ballooned to $2 trillion. The Federal Reserve has effectively committed to printing $2 trillion in a week, which is unprecedented.
Bob believes that the system can’t be repaid mathematically, so something is bound to blow up, leading to inflation and deflation in response to the new debt. He also covers the history of banking in the United States and the purpose of the Glass-Steagall Act, as well as the impact of geopolitical risk.
Bob expresses his dismay about the quality of the leadership in the US and his concern about the potential for increased conflict. He concludes that there is no real limit to how much money can be spent on bailouts, and that sanctions and conflict risks seem to be increasing, without helping the situation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:55 – All Debts Get Paid
4:28 – Causes & Bond Markets
8:23 – Flationary Effects?
15:17 – Saudis & Ukraine
18:05 – Sanctions & Seizures
21:00 – Alt. Competing Systems
23:30 – New Standards
25:44 – FDIC Bailout-ing
27:42 – Cash & Real Assets
29:42 – Shares & Margin
31:42 – Geopolitics & Conflict
37:07 – Collum Year-In-Review
41:21 – Gold Price & Miners
43:53 – Scary Times
46:30 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why the existing monetary system is destined for complete failure.
- The expansion of the BRICS+ countries and heightening geopolitical tensions.
- What possible actions will the Fed undertake to “fix things” in this environment.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.321gold.com
Books on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors’ current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons from the Quoth the Raven podcast to discuss the lack of fear in the markets, which is questionable considering the current circumstances. We are still far from the despair of a bear market, and the belief in a return to normalcy has kept equities overvalued. Recent events have pointed to a much harder landing than predicted, and this is just the beginning of the problem cycle. It may take months for rate hikes to affect the financial plumbing and cause further dominos to fall.
Nobody knows if the Fed has things under control or when more issues will arise. The Fed is attempting to quell panic with more panic, and they will likely choose to let inflation win over destroying the economy. This should be a great time for precious metals investors to sit back, relax, and watch the show. The Fed will probably be late with the right response, kick-starting a supercycle for gold. Eventually, they will cave and resume printing, supposedly to restore prosperity. Any move by the Fed will be amplified substantially.
Chris believes there will be a major blow up within crypto and the stablecoins, with most of the dollar-pegged coins eventually going to zero. He suggests if dabbling the space then invest solely in Bitcoin and avoid other riskier crypto assets. Lastly, he touches upon the problems with the dollar’s reserve status and a recent interview with Andy Schectman on Kitco.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Panic With Panic
6:29 – Market Psychology
9:36 – Speculative Excrement
14:16 – Contagion Risks
18:04 – Soft Landing/Bailouts
23:12 – Market Risk & Gold
27:22 – Fed Policy Effects
29:16 – Inflation Re-Targeting
32:55 – Crypto Contagion & Banks
39:20 – Crypto Dollar Peg Frauds
43:50 – Dollar Hegemony Status
47:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Recent events have pointed to a much harder landing than predicted, and this is only the beginning of the problem cycle.
- Precious metals investors should be in an excellent position to relax and watch the show as the Fed will
likely be late with the appropriate action. - Why the Fed will allow inflation to win out given the alternatives.
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Andy Schectman Interview: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/a-tsunami-of-inflation-one-interview
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast, a show dedicated to discussing Fringe Finance topics and exploring the boundaries of investment decisions. Irons has spent years reading the news and has developed a strong opinion on the mainstream media’s ability to drive a narrative which serves the interests of a small minority. His focus is to provide content that is rarely found elsewhere and to curate content from people he respects. Irons is not afraid to challenge the mainstream narrative or succumb to it when it serves the collective best interests.
Chris is not providing investment advice and the content on The Quoth The Raven podcast/substack is not meant to be taken as such. Anything mentioned should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Tom welcomes Brett Oland, the CEO of Bow Valley Credit Union, about their gold-backed initiative. Brett has been in the banking world for 20 years and he is a chartered accountant and CPA. Brett believes that inflation is a massive problem and it will continue for the foreseeable future, resulting in the devaluation of the US dollar. Brett explains currency printing, debt to GDP ratios, and how governments have crossed the debt to GDP Rubicon. Brett also discusses the environmental hysteria surrounding the green revolution, the US sanction list, and the One Belt One Road initiative, as well as the US unfunded liabilities and the worldwide pension crisis.
Tom then asked Brett about the possibility of a European nation, such as Spain, Greece, or Italy, falling as a result of the rise in DXY and commodities. Brett believes the US Federal Reserve will pivot either through quantitative easing or interest rate reductions. Brett suggests that the tool to stabilize the US balance sheet is gold, as it is globally accepted, and the US would need to couple their currency or treasuries to gold to prevent a massive deflationary event.
In order to protect Bow Valley Credit Union from the potential economic downturns, Brett has created a strategy to anchor part of their balance sheet with gold. Brett believes this strategy provides an effective way to hedge against tail risks, such as a devaluation event. Brett encourages everyone to talk to their local credit union and push for change in order to protect their finances against inflation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Background
2:09 – A Gold Initiative
5:26 – The Convoy Protests
9:44 – Fintrac & Policies
13:00 – Presentation
18:08 – Inflation & Devaluation
26:30 – Japan & Yield Control
32:16 – Fed & Treasury
36:13 – Dollar Global Status
38:34 – Importance of Energy
42:27 – U.S. Unfunded Liabilities
49:24 – Three Options
59:16 – Scenarios & Gold
1:01:07 – Gold as Insurance
1:06:24 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why gold is an effective tool to stabilize the US balance sheet and hedge against tail risks.
- Credit unions should consider anchoring part of their balance sheet with gold.
- Consider talking with your local Credit Union for changes to protect member wealth.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.bowvalleycu.com
Brett Oland is the CEO and President of Bow Valley Credit Union, a position he has held for the past 4 years. Before his current role, Brett served on the Board of Directors of Credit Union Central of Alberta for 7 years. He was also on the Board of Directors of Bow Valley Credit Union for 6 years, with 2 of those years serving as Chair.
Brett holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of Calgary and is a Chartered Professional Accountant, Canada. He also holds the ICD.D (Institute of Corporate Directors Designation) from Rotman, University of Toronto. With over 20 years of experience in the banking industry, Brett is a highly respected leader in the field.
Tom welcomes back David Hay author, CO-Founder and CO-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal. He recently released his book “Bubble 3.0” which is a warning
David isn’t surprised that Powell intends to maintain these rate levels, which remain well below the CPI. He is trying to cool the markets down, yet bond spreads have recently narrowed. Fixing the problems today is a conundrum, as deficits are rising. He expects credit spreads to widen, resulting in a downtrend for stocks.
What happens if government tax revenues decline while the Fed tightens and debt servicing rises? Things will become painful quickly. Central banks’ acquisition of gold is running at record pace, and they are not buying U.S. Treasuries, which could be a real problem for the Fed. What if rates have to rise during a recession?
We are seeing the weakness in housing markets, especially in Canada, where prices are starting to crack, and commercial real estate is already a disaster.
We are in unprecedented territory, where fake GDP growth could occur. This is why people are suffering, as inflation eats up any wage improvements. Monetary policy works with lags, and these are variable but likely inevitable.
It is encouraging to see nuclear coming back as energy realities return, even though coal usage is setting records globally. He discusses how the nuclear regulatory commission should be renamed to the anti-nuclear regulatory commission.
David believes the uranium market is poised to outperform, as dozens of new plants are being constructed in Asia. He explains why SMR technology could be beneficial for stabilizing the grid, by creating power at a local level.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Central banks are not buying U.S. Treasuries, which could be a real problem for the Fed if rates have to rise during a recession.
- We are in unprecedented territory, with questionable GDP growth, and inflation eating away at wage increases.
- Uranium is poised to outperform, as dozens of new plants are being constructed in Asia, and the benefits of SMR technology.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Powell & Higher Rates
4:18 – Corporate & Gov’t Bonds
6:22 – Inflation Factors?
13:47 – Fed & Political Risks
17:30 – Debt Servicing & Ceilings
22:36 – Housing Bubble Concerns
25:23 – Consumers & Consequences
27:50 – Outlook for the Economy
30:50 – Fundamental Shifts?
32:43 – Policy Effects
33:16 – Gold Ratios & Recession
35:20 – Copper Prices & Demand
36:47 – Recession Probabilities
38:55 – Energy & Inflation
42:00 – Best Energy Options
45:37 – Anti-Nuclear Commission
53:34 – Gold Triggers & Trading
55:00 – Bond Opportunities
57:04 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://http://evergreengavekal.com/
Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0
David Hay is a longtime investment advisor and financial author from Bellevue, Washington. He and his wife, Mindy, now split their time between the Northwest, Southern California, and a few places in between (their two dogs love long road trips). They have six grandchildren, three of who live on the West Coast and three on the East Coast. Dave is desperately hoping for a better world for his grandchildren to grow up in than the one we have right now. In that regard, Dave is an ardent supporter of No Labels, a bipartisan political movement that currently includes roughly 70 members of Congress. He is the recently appointed Co-Chairman of No Labels’ Washington State organization. You can find his financial writings on his substack linked above on a weekly basis.
The Fed was discussing transitory issues, but now they are talking of a mild recession. They have built a house of cards heavily reliant on rates and printing, and no one knows what could break in the system today. The unintended consequences of their actions could lead to a collapse. Despite this, the Fed may be reluctant to curb interest rates, meaning we could be in for a protracted period of recession lasting several years.
Investors today are used to the Fed coming to the rescue, particularly since 2009. But if they don’t, markets and investors will be confused about how the recovery will work out naturally. Credit card debt is skyrocketing and car loans are seeing defaults, leading Gareth to believe we are in for a long drawn out recession. People have been overspending since the end of the lockdowns, and soon will have to cut back. Countries with resources, particularly metals, will likely do better than most. China is seeing a surge in demand internally, and it will be interesting to see if this leads to an inflation surge.
Gold is still attractive for its use as a fear trade, and can also do well during inflation. However, it has yet to outperform this year. Servicing the debt will put a burden on the system, while corporations will also have issues refinancing. There are many layoffs coming as a result. Gareth believes the downside for gold is minimal, and the upside is potentially amazing. Silver is trickier to gauge because of its industrial demand aspects, but should perform well if your time horizon is longer than average.
The dollar could continue higher if we get through this recession, which will in turn pressure metals and equities. We need to keep an eye on the jobs numbers on Friday. The decline in natural gas futures has been impressive and we are now in a trading range. Gareth still believes the Bitcoin markets are likely due for a further decline, and that we are seeing similar patterns. A bear market rally appears to still be in play, and a pullback to 18,000 or even lower seems likely. A recession or pullback in equities will also impact the crypto space, so lower targets remain possible. Gareth believes regulations in crypto will benefit the markets, as it will allow institutions into the space. Right now, legally they would have a lot of trouble investing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Feds In Control?
3:50 – Rates & Recession
5:18 – Weakness Starting?
7:29 – Global Outlook & China
9:12 – China, Copper, & Steel
10:40 – Gold & Inflation
12:30 – Black Swans & Tensions
13:28 – S&P Outlook Charts
16:36 – Gold Chart
20:36 – GDX Outlook?
21:58 – Silver Chart
23:00 – Dollar Direction
24:15 – Energy – Crude
25:25 – Trendlines & Closes
26:54 – Natural Gas Futures
28:46 – Bitcoin Volatility
31:39 – Trading Tip
33:40 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway
Website: https://inthemoneystocks.com/
Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.com
Website: https://verifiedinvestingeducation.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. “Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets,” he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together, and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
InTheMoneyStocks was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected. Gareth’s goal was to help average investors beat the best hedge funds and traders on Wall Street by teaching them the methodology and giving them his trades as he took them LIVE!
Since 2007, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has maintained an over 80% success rate on swing trade alerts (verified 300+ trades per year) given to members in Verified Investing Alerts (formally named the Research Center) and a confirmed 94% success rate on day trades in the Live Day Trading Chat Room. He has given lectures at colleges around the United States, been asked to train hedge fund traders in other countries, and taught thousands of investors how to invest and trade profitably, achieving their dreams of financial independence. He lives life to the fullest and puts his heart and soul into teaching his members who come willing to learn the PPT Methodology.
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Bix Weir, and Steve St. Angelo for a lively and professional debate around metals manipulation and mining. Bix believes there is a large amount of gold in the Grand Canyon region, while Steve believes it’s uneconomic to mine both logistically and due to energy costs.
The conversation focuses on Charles Spencer and his attempts to mine gold in the area in the early 1900s, and how his efforts failed due to the fineness of the gold and the lack of a profitable return. They also discussed the New York Times article from 1912, which Steve speculated was an attempt to get more investors to invest in the mining operation even though it had been shut down.
The conversation then turned to the KISS principle, with Steve discussing the energy return on investment of oil, and how it has been steadily falling since its peak in 1970. This has caused a variety of issues, such as inflation, and Steve believes that it is more important to focus on energy than to get lost in the details of the manipulation theory.
Louis McFadden, the chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency from 1920 to 1932, was then discussed, with Bix believing that he wanted to fix the problem of mines being uneconomical by introducing a tax of fifty percent. This was intended to give the miners a premium and encourage more gold production. Steve looked at the issue from an energy perspective, stating that the real problem is not the manipulation of the gold and silver price, but the lack of available energy and the way in which it has been siphoned away from poorer countries to the more developed nations.
The two experts then discussed gold and silver as money. Steve argues a lot of this money has been lost throughout time. Bix also spoke of the fixing of the price of gold at $20.67 in the US in 1900, which the banks knew would cause a lot of mines to fail due to the increasing costs.
Finally, Bix and Steve discussed institutional investors and their lack of understanding for investing in silver and gold, and how the US Mint is required by law to produce coins in quantities equal to demand, yet they are only producing a third of what they are capable of. They attributed this to the new Mint director, Ventress Gibson, who has never been in charge of the Mint before and is an HR professional. They believe that something bigger is going on and that the US Mint is holding back coins from the public.
They agree that gold and silver prices have been manipulated by large banks and the US government, but they disagree on the role of energy in the pricing. They also discuss the KISS principle, the energy cliff due to declining oil production, the Comex, and the US Mint’s apparent lack of increased production of silver eagles. They emphasize the importance of energy, saying that it always comes first and is the foundation of the economy and all that we do. Lastly, they agree that silver will outperform gold in the coming years.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introductions
4:47 – Grand Canyon Gold?
21:30 – 1900 Gold Supply
33:54 – Gold Price Fixing
36:57 – Taxes on Gold
41:18 – Counterarguments
50:00 – Gold Manipulation Chart
1:00:10 – Derivative Impacts
1:01:43 – Today’s Production Costs
1:06:05 – Supply/Demand & Price
1:09:55 – Mining & Energy Use
1:15:25 – 1980 Highs & Benchmarks
1:25:40 – High Frequency Trading
1:27:10 – Reserve Disparities
1:29:34 – Silver Eagles & Supply
1:39:12 – Energy & Fairy Tales
1:45:22 – Energy & Crypto Mining
1:46:54 – COMEX, Hedging, & ETFs
1:57:22 – Revaluation & Metals?
2:03:24 – Shale & Energy Sunset
2:06:20 – Silver Lining Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Bix believes that there is a large amount of gold in the area near the Grand Canyon and that freely traded gold would be easier to mine.
- They discuss the EROI of oil, and how it has been steadily falling since its peak in 1970.
- They discuss the importance of holding silver while Steve stresses the importance of energy production in the future economy.
- They both agree that it is important to think for oneself and avoid the trap of dismissing any theory as a “conspiracy theory” without further research.
Guest Links:
Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReport
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, PMBull, Deviantinvestor, PMBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.
Guest Links:
Website: https://roadtoroota.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/RoadtoRoota
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC73WeDULjX2BwsSmICJ0y0w
Bix Weir has 30 years’ experience in the financial industry with various fortune 500 companies. He is the creator of the “Road to Roota Theory” and his commentary is published at RoadtoRoota.com. Bix has dedicated his efforts over the last 15 years to exposing the long term manipulation of the gold, silver & crypto markets. He has worked closely with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee helping to pull the curtain away from the Cabal of International Bankers that has taken control of our free market system.
At RoadtoRoota Bix deals with the conspiracy and manipulation side of the gold, silver and financial markets and is not constrained by conventional thinking of how market prices fluctuate. Bix has developed this website to aid in the discovery of the truth behind our massively manipulated markets and to help expose those who threaten our free market system.
“May the Road you choose be the Right Road.”
Tom welcomes Julian Brigden to the show. Julian is Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners.
Julian discusses the Feds options, including “Opportunistic Disinflation” to drain the inflation from the system. He believes it will take years to correct inflation and will likely be a painful process. The issues are not so much inflation, but nominal GDP. Most of GDP is based on the labor market and consumer behavior. The Fed understands the situation very well and they expect higher unemployment.
We don’t know the exact approach the Fed is taking and if they are considering how inflation played out in the 1970s. The Fed today is very politicized and what happens towards the end of the year when we have higher unemployment and are heading into an election cycle. He says, “We’re now fighting a kinetic war with Russia, a Cold War with China, and a war with climate change. Arguably, the dynamics today are far worse than in the 70s.” The Fed will have to decide just how independent of the government it is. The Fed is trying to steer the supertanker, while most investors can change course much faster.
Mortgage applications have just dropped to the lowest levels since 1995. We’re seeing higher than normal cancellations in the home markets. We’re heading for a good old boom, bust market cycle in the sector.
The ECB is miles away from viable rates, arguably, as they are currently minus 300 basis points in real terms. We’re in uncharted territory, and he discusses the German bond situation. All these sovereign bonds are basically interchangeable, so they all affect each other.
A weaker dollar would be very supportive for gold and especially silver. He explains the differences between the silver and gold market. Silver tends to outperform in inflationary environments.
We’re in a structural bond bear market, be disciplined because passive investing will be heavily punished going forward.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:41 – Rates & Feds Approach
8:43 – Nominal GDP Issues
11:14 – Inflation Today Vs 70s
17:19 – Fed Reactionary
19:50 – Housing Markets
25:50 – Europe/ECB Impacts
33:54 – BRICS & Reserve Status
37:13 – Yields & Gold
39:57 – Gold/Silver Differences
43:31 – China & Deglobalization
46:55 – Trading Cautiously
48:39 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The Fed is very politicized and this could have a major effect on how they approach inflation.
- Mortgages applications are at their lowest level since 1995, indicating a possible coming bust cycle in the housing market.
- Yields are at historic lows and silver is especially likely to perform well in an inflationary environment.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
Website: https://mi2partners.com/
Substack: https://mi2partners.substack.com/
Julian Brigden is the Head of Research at Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a firm he co-founded in 2011. He leads a six-person team of research and market professionals to publish independent macroeconomic research that is both ahead of market consensus and timely. Julian has over 30 years of experience in financial markets including positions in market and policy focused consulting to institutional investors as well as FICC sales.
Julian is a trusted advisor to many top money managers who use MI2 Partners’ research to guide their investment process. He has extensive experience with macro data analysis, broad fixed income, equity market (not individual stocks) and currencies. He is particularly skilled at exploring correlations in the economy and financial markets vital to a vast array of investment decision-makers. As a global macro strategist, Julian’s primary focus is understanding and explaining macroeconomic and policy-related developments to tell clients what is important in markets and what to fade.
When asked about his market outlook for 2022, Julian stated that the US policy response was massive. As a result, the economy has closed the output gap and is in danger of overheating. Together with inflation, Julian believes that this means the Fed needs to rapidly tighten policy while slowing growth. As rates rise and the balance sheet shrinks, the risks to very overvalued asset prices, especially stocks, will rise. He then stated that in Europe, as the impact of Omicron fades and the inventory cycle surges, the ECB will need to raise rates, which will add to the pressure in global bond markets.
With regards to market shifts and the issues he feels are not addressed in the media, Julian mentioned that there is a significant risk that we are entering a period of extended volatility. The most analogous period was in the late 1960s, when we saw greater economic and market cyclicality. As foreign interest in Treasuries has waned, he believes that the current US account deficit has been funded via purchases of equities. Thus, if US equities do correct, it could put considerable pressure on the dollar. With this in mind, Julian says that the MI2 Research team will continue to advise clients to be short fixed income in the US and Europe, together with high yield credit. Finally, they have suggested being long volatility in a few places.
Julian spent five years at Medley Global Advisors from 1999 to 2004, a leading macro policy intelligence firm, as the Managing Director of the G7 Client Team, providing timely trading recommendations. From 2004 to 2011, he served as North American Head of Hedge Fund Sales at Crédit Agricole. He has worked in London, Zurich, New York and Vail at UBS, Lehman Brothers, HSBC, Drexel, Credit Suisse, and Salomon Brother in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Throughout his career, he has been featured on many big media outlets such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox News Business, Real Vision, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s. Discussing macro research topics that are driving prices in global bonds, equities, commodities, and currencies.
Tom welcomes back Tony Greer from the Morning Navigator to discuss the current markets and his outlook for the year. Tony expects further inflation, particularly from energy with the green transition. Markets are chaotic at the moment, much of which has to do with the yield curve – currently steeper than during the Great Financial Crisis and the Dot Com Bubble. It is important to watch what rates and the dollar are doing to understand how aggressive one can be with one’s trades.
He explains the bond markets’ impact on the rest of the financial markets, and the current inversion signalling of a recession ahead. He is bullish on oil and refineries, believing the downside on energy is limited and oil-related companies have good upside. Tony gives his thoughts on gold, natural gas and why we’ve had a pullback in price, and why he believes energy and natural resources will be the outperformers this year, while tech will move sideways or down. Technology had a huge rally over the past couple of years, so a correction was overdue.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – The Setup for 2023
7:45 – Yield Curve Importance
11:40 – Inflation & Commodities
13:20 – Energy & Risks
19:20 – WTI & Breakeven Price
21:24 – Dollar Trends
25:04 – Long Gold?
29:06 – Natural Gas Trends
34:25 – Carbon & Commodities
37:20 – Nuclear & Public Opinion
39:45 – Resource Companies
43:18 – Rates & Tech Sector
45:47 – CFTC & COT Reports
48:46 – Events & Bigger Themes
52:12 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- The yield curve is currently inverted steeper than during past financial crises which could be a signal for a coming recession.
- Tony is bullish on oil and refineries and believes gold is a good risk mitigating investment this year.
- Why energy and natural resources will probably outperform this year.
- Tech sector is likely to churn sideways.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://tgmacro.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacro
Website: https://tgmacro.com/
E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, “I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years.”
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.
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Tom welcomes the well-known Michael Maloney to the show. Mike discusses the outstanding professionals he works with to create Hidden Secrets of Money, which has done very well on YouTube, with the fourth episode having reached ten million views.
He details how modern banks simply imagine money into existence with loans. Mike discusses the important distinctions between currency and money. Currency cannot store value over long periods of time, whereas honest money, like gold and silver, maintains its purchasing power. For the last 5,000 years, the predominant medium of exchange has been precious metals. The period of the 1970s was the biggest bull market for honest money, and we are overdue for a similar period.
Currencies are constantly devalued by creating more units of them, which is inflation, and they make poor measurement tools for value. Various asset classes move in long-term cycles, and we’re approaching another bull period for gold and silver; we’ve been stuck in a difficult mid-cycle correction since 2011.
The Federal Reserve creates currency when they decide to purchase an asset. However, they are only allowed to buy in the open market; this was supposed to create price competition. Their open market, however, is different than the public’s. They use the primary dealer investment banks and brokerage houses around the world. These are not banks in a conventional sense.
He discusses the concept of currency units per person, and the idea that currency has to end up somewhere and inflate some asset class. Low interest rates create more currency due to the increased uptake in loans. This, coupled with direct stimulus, means someone has to repay this new money eventually.
It used to be possible to borrow and increase GDP, but this is increasingly difficult today. This was back when real businesses were being built, but as a society, we’ve increasingly gone into debt. We’ve reached the point of no return where we can’t borrow ourselves into prosperity.
Central banks are increasingly buying gold, particularly the eastern banks in China, India, and Russia. Mike discusses recent changes in gold buying by the United States during the pandemic and how the U.S. has now returned to being a net seller of metals.
Whenever the middle-class becomes impoverished, we see political risk. Gold and silver is the only thing you can buy that doesn’t entail counterparty risk. If you don’t already have metals as insurance, you may find it impossible to obtain in a crisis. He explains why a lot of money is going to chase after gold and silver during the next bull market.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
2:43 – Banks & Money Creation
5:17 – Currency Vs. Money
10:35 – Price Vs. Value
16:22 – Money Printing & Theft
23:43 – Bernanke & Responsibility
31:22 – Treasury Remittances
35:55 – Doppelganger Dollars
47:12 – Gold & Silver – New Book
49:05 – Reverse Robinhood
49:57 – Socialism & Division
54:50 – Almost Everything Bubble
59:00 – Excessive Taxation
59:56 – Currency Units & Inflation
1:04:30 – Budgets, Taxes, & Crisis
1:09:05 – Solutions & Smart Money
1:14:40 – Gold in a Crisis
1:26:40 – More Book Details
1:28:20 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Modern banks can imagine currency into existence with loans, but it cannot store value over long periods of time, whereas honest money like gold and silver maintains its purchasing power.
- The Federal Reserve creates currency when they purchase assets, but this new money must eventually be repaid.
- Gold and silver is the only thing you can buy that doesn’t entail counterparty risk, and it is expected that a lot of money will chase after it during the next bull market.
Guest Links:
Website: https://goldsilver.com/
Book: https://ggsr21.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/goldsilver_com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Goldsilver
Our team is lead by Mike Maloney, the founder of GoldSilver, host of Hidden Secrets of Money, former Rich Dad/Poor Dad advisor, and bestselling author of Guide to Investing in Gold & Silver. Mike travels the world sharing his economic insights with audiences from Hong Kong to Rome to Silicon Valley to Wall Street. A veritable YouTube sensation, Mike has nearly 50 million views and counting.
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm. Danielle has a new offering on the Substack she recently started.
Tom and Danielle discuss the recently released Fed Minutes and the potential implications for the US economy. DiMartino Booth stated that the minutes were massaged in order to correct any market misperceptions that the Fed was going to pause its tight monetary policy. She also points out that jobs were not mentioned in the minutes, even though bankruptcies and job losses are on the rise, and that consumer credit card debt had jumped to an all-time high. DiMartino Booth argues that the Fed was trying to hide behind specious inflation and jobs data in order to keep up its tight policy stance, and she notes that income tax refunds were down 14% year-over-year.
They also discussed the debt limit issue, which DiMartino Booth describes as kabuki theater, but argued that it should still be a topic of discussion in order to address entitlement spending.
Lastly, DiMartino Booth discusses the recent nomination of Austin Goolsbee to the Chicago Fed and the White House’s subsequent appointment of two more candidates after the leaked voting result against Goolsbee. This, she argued, was a victory for the hawks on the Fed and a loss for the White House. She also highlighted the recalculation of CPI, which she believes will help the Fed when it eventually eases its policy.
Danielle discusse the Fed’s minutes from the last meeting which just came out. What is interesting is what is missing from the notes, namely labor and disinflation.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:42 – Minutes Review
2:16 – Labor, Debt & Bankruptcies
7:23 – Monetary Policy Lag
10:30 – Financial Conditions?
12:04 – Debt Limit Theatrics?
15:26 – Feds Path Forward
18:50 – CPI Adjustments
20:16 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Review of the Fed’s minutes from their last meeting and what was missing.
- Fed acknowledging the lag time of policy decisions to effect and seasonal CPI adjustments.
- U.S. debt ceiling limits and why it’s entirely theater.
Guest Links:
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Tom welcomes back the Head Writer from the Little Green Chicken consulting firm AKA Doomberg.
Editors Note: Doomy is using a voice modifier.
Doomberg discusses the consequences and risks of the probable U.S. coordinated attack on the Nordstream pipeline, arguing that it’s likely an impeachable offense and such actions set a bad precedent geopolitically. He notes that the media would likely not be ignoring the news had Trump taken similar measures.
He then addresses the use of Substack, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses. He expresses the importance of staying professional, stating that the traditional media’s hatred of Substack may be indicative of its importance.
Next, he talks about the tradeoffs between shipping petrochemicals via rail and allowing pipelines, which are cheaper and safer. He acknowledges that no mode of transportation is without risk, and that the media has become adept at using propaganda when it comes to energy.
He then reflects on California, a beautiful and prosperous land that encourages progressive thinking, although its ideas around energy are largely incorrect. He expresses his disagreement with the idea of preventing others from climbing the affluence ladder, which requires energy.
He then discusses home energy and efficiency, noting that there is currently a push for heat pump systems. He highlights the added complexity and cost, as well as the fact that they don’t work well in extremely cold temperatures. One needs an extremely reliable grid for such systems. He argues that if we had more nuclear and very stable grids, there would be benefits, but warns of the dangers if one’s home loses heating.
Doomy explains the importance of base load power and the problems with high-intermittency systems like wind or solar. He acknowledges that grid scale battery solutions are difficult to achieve and that we lack the will to develop sufficient mining to gather the necessary metals to realize these ideas.
He then looks at Diablo Canyon, the last nuclear plant in California, which recently has been extended to stabilize the grid. However, he claims that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission have done their best to suppress most existing and all new projects, stating that they are completely captured by the environmental movement. He suggests that some problems are too big to fix and just need to be eliminated.
Lastly, Doomy provides his outlook on the crypto market, expressing his concerns around FTX and Tether. He emphasizes the hindrance and surveillance of the conventional financial system, and worries that Central Bank digital currencies will only exacerbate that control mechanism.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The alleged U.S. coordinated attack on the Nordstream pipeline may set a dangerous geopolitical precedent.
- The importance of alternative journalism platforms like Substack.
- Green energy goals and concerns regarding electrically dependent Heat pump systems in areas with poor electric grids.
- Why the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is completely captured by the environmental movement.
- Central Bank digital currencies will further hinder and surveil.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Nordstream & America
4:28 – Putin Apoligist & Media
12:14 – Journalism & Substack
18:40 – Pipelines Vs. Rail
26:27 – California & Energy
30:14 – Heat Pumps & Home Energy
35:32 – Thar She Doesn’t Blow
39:53 – Grid Scale Solutions?
44:33 – Diablo Canyon & NRC
50:27 – Emissions & Green Agendas
56:45 – Crypto Regulations?
59:40 – Tether & Dollars
1:03:22 – Banking Privacy & Control
1:07:03 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Tom welcomes back Jeffrey Christian Managing Partner of CPM Group. Jeffrey is an expert on the gold and silver markets.
Jeff explains that in 2000, they issued a buy recommendation on gold at around $285, due to the political and economic environment that was going to last for decades. He then outlines the different drivers for gold and silver in different market environments, as well as the optimal level of metals in a portfolio. He examines the idea that China holds 40,000 tons of gold in its reserves, and why China does not want to have the reserve currency of the world.
Mr. Christian also explains why the mining industry has a lower beta compared to the price of the underlying metal. He states that due to a lack of investor interest in the sector, along with the rise of stock index funds and ETFs, institutional investors have been cutting costs and reducing their involvement in individual stock trading. This has caused a contraction in the stock market, reducing the buy side’s ability to support research. He also explains the red, green, blue bubble chart that takes into account many different factors that CPM puts together, as well as the potential for hydrogen engines in the future and the importance of specialty metals, such as tantalum, in the electronics industry.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Commodity Research
5:24 – Factors Driving Metals
10:07 – Gold & Silver Differences
11:44 – An Optimal Portfolio
14:03 – Bad Data & Conjecture?
20:09 – Gold & China
24:56 – Gold Reserves & Sources
36:15 – China & Reserve Currency
39:00 – BRICS Effects & Dollars
44:40 – Mining Equities & Beta
49:30 – Inflation & the Media
55:18 – CPM Recession Outlook
57:37 – CPM RGB Bubble Chart
59:01 – A Year of Transition
1:02:27 – Metals & Energy Scenarios
1:05:10 – Fossil Fuel Future
1:07:16 – Platinum & ICE’s
1:10:14 – Tantalum Uses & Supply
1:12:36 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The drivers of gold and silver in the commodities market, as well as the optimal level of metals in a portfolio.
- The asymmetry of the gold and silver markets, and how bad data and misinformation can lead to incorrect decisions.
- China’s gold industry and why they don’t want to be the reserve currency of the world.
- Uses for the specialty metal tantalum and the importance of Australia becoming clean source of the metal.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLC
Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/
Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.com
YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith explains the two main forces that led to the price of gold remaining flat in 2022: the Fed’s decision to raise rates and the wild card of Ukraine. He explains that wage earners tend to prefer silver to gold, and that the Fed’s decision to raise rates has only recently started to have an effect on labor. Keith discusses the trend of falling interest rates over the last 40 years and how this has both unleashed capital and created an addiction to lower rates. This, he compared to a wrecking ball swinging back and forth and how the falling trend has caused companies to consume capital and become addicted to the trend.
Keith suggests the Fed’s only concern is consumer prices, then lower rates may be a better way to stimulate production and lower prices. However, he cautions that lower rates can be destructive and that the continual lowering of rates and production could lead to higher prices eventually. He also discusses other effects such as zero interest rates driving investors to riskier asset classes and how speculators can have a big impact on the price of gold and silver.
Ultimately, Keith believes that the bear market in gold is over and that the opportunity cost of owning gold may still be attractive to some. When the Fed reverses, there will be a surge in gold buying, not just from speculators but from those who are questioning the government’s debt levels.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Monetary Metals Report
9:23 – Rate Trends
18:18 – CPI & Hiking Rates
23:50 – Politics & Consequences
28:20 – Junk Bond Spreads
29:37 – Defining Recessions
35:46 – Labor Markets & Fed
39:00 – Zero Yields & Risk
42:56 – Scarcity, Price & Metals
47:36 – Speculators & Futures
51:33 – Energy Risks & Metals
56:13 – Gold Prices in 2023
1:02:32 – Education & Economics
1:04:31 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Impact of geopolitical effects in Europe and Ukraine along with Fed policy on the price of gold.
- Negative effect of Fed policies on the economy and concerns around politics.
- Speculators impact on gold prices and why Monetary Metals Model attempts to remove those effects.
- When the Fed reverses, a surge in gold buying is possible due to people questioning the government’s debt.
Guest Links:
Gold Report: https://buff.ly/3lHl2aj
Twitter: https://twitter.com/kweiner01
Website: https://monetary-metals.com
Website: https://goldstandardinstitute.net
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
Tom welcomes Bob Elliot to the show he is CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds.
Bob Elliot discussed the current economic situation, the role of debt cycles, and the trade-offs between a fiat monetary system and a commodity-based system. He noted that productivity is the main driver of growth over the long term, and that debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity. He explained the risks associated with governments borrowing to make up for productivity declines and noted that wage growth is maintaining nominal spending at a higher level.
Bob also discussed the Great Depression and Japan’s deflationary trap, arguing that the US has been more successful in responding to deflationary forces due to their policy mix.
He also argued that the Federal Reserve should be agile in responding to data rather than predicting what will happen and mentioned gold as a great diversifying asset to protect against tail risks.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:10 – Our Economic State
4:01 – Demographics & Labor
11:14 – Wage Growth & Inflation
16:38 – Limits to Debt Growth
23:08 – Destabilizing Effects?
27:20 – Recessions & Deleveraging
31:03 – Great Depression Response
35:30 – Japanese Debt Levels
40:04 – U.S. Immigration & GDP
43:43 – Perpetual Growth?
46:27 – Fed Policy & Response
49:34 – Hiking Cycle & Effects
52:40 – Risk & Open Mindedness
56:07 – Gold & Going Defensive
59:04 – Wrap Up
Talking Points from This Episode
- Productivity is the main driver of long-term growth, but current GDP numbers are low.
- Debt cycles have been used to make up for declining productivity and support asset prices.
- Trade-offs between fiat monetary system and commodity-based system.
- Federal Reserve should be agile in responding to data rather than predicting outcomes.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Course Article: https://t.co/Yc6ZBXaEJ8
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity.
Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and created investment strategies across equities, fixed income, credit, exchange rates, and commodities, including many used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund. He also built and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. He’s the author of hundreds of Bridgewater’s widely read Daily Observations and directly counseled some of the world’s foremost policymakers and institutional investors on economic and investing issues.
Bob has also served as an advisor and executive at several startups including CircleUp, an investment company focused on early-stage consumer brands. There he revamped the investment strategy for the company’s $150mln venture funds leveraging big data approaches to improve decision making. He was also the co-founder of GiveWell, a startup charity evaluator which now directs more than $500mln in annual contributions.
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show. Alfonso is predicting a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year. He bases this prediction on three indicators – the frozen housing market, the Fed’s attempt to engineer tighter financial conditions, and the reaction of central banks to inflation. He also talks about immaculate disinflation, which is an environment where inflation comes down rapidly without a recession. The market is pricing this, which means people are selling insurance trades like the dollar, volatility, and cash, and buying high-beta stocks. Alfonso disagrees with this take and believes a recession is still more likely than a soft landing.
He notes that the stock market usually bottoms before earnings bottom, and that valuations start to rise as the Fed cuts rates. He believes that a true bull market won’t be seen until 2024, and that people should be wary of trying to anticipate the Fed’s pivot. He also notes that the bond market underpins everything in the current financialized economy. The amount of debt between private and public sectors is 300-400% of GDP and bond yields are the price of the cost of borrowing. An inverted yield curve has hardly ever mis-forecasted a recession, and he cautions against believing that “this time is different”.
Finally, he talks about net liquidity decreasing due to the Fed running off its balance sheet. The Treasury General Account is taking the hit instead of reserves, but once the debt ceiling debate is resolved, the Treasury General Account will need to be replenished. This will cause a double whammy effect on liquidity between June and December, with quantitative tightening running on the background. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve’s running off its balance sheet removes liquidity from the system.
Alfonso also talks about how to avoid getting stuck in a narrative and what data should be paid attention to. He recommends self-awareness, training oneself to not think that one knows everything, and building a macro process and data-driven macro process. He advises looking for episodes of extreme market conviction, as it allows one to understand when things are getting stretched and when people are assigning too much conviction. He also encourages people to become active macro investors, as this is a much more complicated investing landscape than before.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Alfonso predicts a recession in the US starting in May or June of this year, based on three indicators.
- The market is pricing in a soft landing but more likely a true bull market won’t be seen until 2024.
- He advises looking for market conviction, examining the macro environment, and develop market self-awareness in order to understand the complex financial landscape.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:05 – Base Case For Markets
4:30 – Immaculate Disinflation
7:44 – Recession Insurance
9:53 – Expectations & FOMO
19:12 – FED Timing & Pivots
21:55 – Macro & Bond Markets
25:29 – Yield Curve Inversion
29:38 – Fed Balance Sheet
35:05 – Narratives & Data
39:40 – Risks & Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.themacrocompass.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com
Alfonso Peccatiello is the Founder & CEO of The Macro Compass, a disruptive investment strategy firm whose mission is to democratize professional macro analysis, tools and portfolio strategy.
The Macro Compass leverages Alf’s experience running large pools of institutional money and offers financial education, unique macroeconomic insights, and actionable investment strategy.
Before launching The Macro Compass, Alfonso was the Head of Investments for a $20 billion portfolio for ING Germany.
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron. He discusses his new analysis that he recently discussed at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.
He discusses the history of gold and miners over the past few years. We’ve seen a period of consolidation of the last couple of years, but that is shifting. In September, we didn’t see a wash-out in the metals after a breakdown. Instead, we went above the 1650 level. Buyers started to move into the market, which was different behavior than what we have seen. The big picture is we have seen a false breakdown that doesn’t carry through. Numerous shorts had to cover following that event. The key takeaway is a false breakdown is a signal for a move in the opposite direction.
The big picture is this market should now be biased to the upside. He expects a good end to the year for gold. He believes the next rally towards the 2000 level will be successful. The first sign will be that the monthly close will prelude a breakout to new all-time highs. He provides some targets for where gold should reach.
Chris discusses what is realistic for silver markets in the coming couple of years. Eventually, when we reach the $45 dollar level, investors may want to take some profits. It probably won’t blast through it right away. He discusses some of the industrial demand factors for silver.
He believes that inflation will plateau around the 4.5% range, and later it may rise higher. This is not what markets are expecting.
Valuations for miners are quite low, and the price for reserves in the ground is quite low. We’re looking at 5x to 10x lower valuations than ten years ago. He notes that sentiment remains quite low in the miners and metals. Only very prudent investors are moving into metals.
He notes there are those who like to keep the population in a state of fear and concern. They like the state of perpetual war, and fiat currency is what permits this behavior. They want to keep people on the taxation and inflation treadmill. We need a system that prevents government from spending beyond its means.
What is important to keep in mind is that society in many ways is progressing. Despite the bad things, there is a lot of potential, and it’s important to keep space for possibility and optimism.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Analysis & Gold Outlook
7:30 – Technicals & Resistance
10:47 – Fundamental Issues
14:10 – Measured Target
16:12 – Silver Vs. Gold Mkts.
24:42 – Dollar & Metals
26:27 – Fed & Inflation
30:12 – The Lag in Miners
38:17 – Sovereign Opportunities
41:54 – War, Gold, & Narratives
48:51 – Taxes – Words & Numbers
51:20 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Analysis of the gold and silver markets, plus price targets.
- Dollars impact on the metals and the effects of inflation.
- Taking personal responsibility and finding sovereign opportunities.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGold
Website: https://igoldadvisor.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metal’s investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
Tom Welcomes author and economist Phil Denniston. Phil discusses the inadequacies of his economics education and how economic problems around the year 2000 caused him to question it. The bursting of the housing bubble lead him to study and learn from a more rational school of economic thought. All the world’s problems come back to the bubble-bust cycle and debt.
Capitalism is a spectrum and our system has elements of free markets, but it’s not truly free. We set the price of money, and price fix many markets. All of which create distortions. We have cronyism, where markets are controlled by interests of the highest bidder. The types of people we need in government aren’t likely to want the job.
A lot of economic activity occurs due to the price fixing of money. We blow up asset prices and create bubbles. This maintains zombie companies that shouldn’t be around any longer. Capitalism requires failure, but that doesn’t happen as often as it should. The result is stagnation and eventually recession or depression.
Every dollar today is created as a loan. Debt is principal plus interest, and more dollars will be needed to repay it. We have to have endless growth within a finite world. A lot of conflict comes back to the money system. Our current system is the aberration, in normal economic times money is tied to something of value. Free markets always choose a backed system. Government intervention in the system can only make things worse.
A return to the gold standard will never occur until they are forced into this solution. When things blow up, there will be only one way to restore confidence, which is a backed currency. Hopefully, we actually have the gold reserves the U.S. government claims. Collapse will bring short to medium term pain.
Humans are herd animals, and we fear being cut-off from the rest of the tribe. It’s important to train yourself to think differently and apart from the propaganda. Group think can be dangerous, and it’s key to stand up for what you believe in. Focus on what you can control.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:04 – Economics Journey
6:06 – Those In Charge
9:40 – Fed Distortions
13:42 – The Economic Endgame?
17:56 – Inherent Flaws
19:43 – Systems & Government
27:15 – Realigning Incentives
29:35 – Better Bedtime Stories
34:29 – Madness of Crowds
36:52 – Concluding Thoughts
38:49 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The problems with the current fiat debt based financial system.
- Why control systems create asset bubbles and market distortions.
- Importance of commodity backed currency systems and the dangers of following the herd.
Guest Links:
Website: https://inflationeducation.net
Twitter: https://twitter.com/inflationedu
Phil Denniston is founder and CEO of InflationEducation.net, better bedtime stories revealing the secrets of the debt-based fiat money system using the principles of liberty, sound money, Austrian Economics, and Natural Law. Phil holds a BA in Economics from the University of Colorado. With InflationEducation.net, Phil married his two passions: Understanding what’s behind the curtain in finance, markets, and geopolitics, and using that nightly ritual building memories with your children to teach them how the system really works. Phil is also a contributing author for PeakProsperity.com.
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders. David discusses Fed Chair Powell’s recent statements, but argues that financial conditions have not tightened that much. Powell has said some real doozies recently, like the economy is strong, and the labor market is doing well. David says, “give me a break, the metrics around labor markets are startling wrong.” Bernanke has stated in the past, “When the data is bad, you have to lie” because it’s about maintaining confidence. The economy is not doing well, and neither is the labor market. The Fed statements are just justification for their policies.
We’re starting to see delinquencies and foreclosures that are likely to get considerably worse by next year. Housing and properties in parts of Canada have dropped forty percent.
The CPI metrics for the Fed is part of their narrative construction. They are going to “redefine” the CPI lower because it reduces the cost of government entitlements. Year over year, inflation will come down, and they are going to recalculate it even lower. If we get lower inflation, the Fed will have justification to pause.
He believes the DXY will head lower when this pop completes, once again near the recent highs. This will be the time to be buying gold and silver while many are throwing in the towel. The only way that doesn’t play out is if we break below 1750 support. There is no scenario where gold and silver don’t go up in the next few years.
He is concerned there could be nationalization or excess taxation of miners. If you’re able to get out, will you be able to find someplace safe to put your money?
The markets are essentially rigged and managed by central banks. All the markets needed recently to go in the other direction was a catalyst. The Euro drop was the catalyst and caused the DXY to move higher, these are nearly perfectly correlated.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Financial Conditions
2:28 – Labor Contradictions
6:44 – Hikes & Latent Damage
10:15 – Redefining the CPI
14:43 – DXY & Gold Outlook
18:48 – Final Fed Endgame
23:27 – Mine Nationalization
25:35 – The Metals Reversal?
32:50 – Leading Indications
35:14 – Fed Still Matters
38:50 – Dedollarization
42:44 – The Fed Trifecta
48:06 – Entitlements
53:23 – Wifey Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Fed policy is all about maintaining a narrative while manipulating statistics to support it.
- Outlook for the dollar and why he is so optimistic on precious metals.
- The move away from the dollar and why Fed policy still matters.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotrader
Sprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writers
Silver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, “Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed,” in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich to the show, Peter Grandich. Peter discusses the potential for this gold bull market and why it’s likely extraordinary. Central banks are buying at record levels, and many of those buying are doing it for safety reasons. Don’t bet against the Fed and don’t bet against central banks when it comes to gold. Mining shares have yet to reflect, and arguably as cheap as they can get regarding the price of gold.
We started to see some liquidation last year, but not as much in the retail sector. Most investors and money managers today have never seen a real downturn. Investors need to start value investing because the tailwind of printing trillions has stopped. The Fed is probably not in a position to start the printers back up. Inflation is hard to fix.
People are more concerned about running out of money than dying because retirement is going to become a major issue.
The world has a tremendous immigration and social spending problem. Many immigrants will not be productive, but will fall into the support systems. There will be tremendous strains on government, and that will be passed onto the younger generation as a tax burden. This will create a war between age classes. There are many things that financial advisors are not taking into consideration.
It’s remarkable how many additional metals are needed for electrification and electric vehicles. The global supply chain is hampered by a lack of interest in mining and investment in these sectors.
Peter discusses some of the problems with the U.S. power grid and why we need better solutions that will have to come from Nuclear Energy. This will require a significant time lag to build these projects.
The recent employment number was so surprising because they changed most of the metrics they used. Inflation is here, economy is on the rocks and people are going to notice when they have no discretionary income.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The potential of the bull market in precious metals.
- Why the Fed is unable to restart the money printing train.
- Electrification, the need for metals, and a lack of capital investment.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:44 – Sentiment & Gold Buying
3:42 – Gold Price Behavior
5:38 – Paper Derivatives
8:55 – A Changing Landscape
11:20 – Inflation & Retirement
15:46 – Fed Stuck
18:39 – Demographics & Economies
22:12 – C.B. & the Dollar System
24:10 – Global Supply System
27:35 – Copper & Energy Metals
31:13 – Uranium Sentiment
36:10 – Grid & Energy Concerns
38:35 – Trends in 2023
42:29 – Rates & Latent Effects
44:54 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://petergrandich.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/petergrandich
Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.
Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. Through Athletes in Action, Grandich assisted with Bible study and chapel services for the New York Giants and New York Yankees from 2002 to 2016.
His autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was first published in 2011 and is now on its fourth printing.
Peter Grandich resides in New Jersey with his wife, Mary, and has one daughter, Tara. In 2015, he turned a three-decade dream into a reality by opening a storefront office in the “Norman Rockwell style” Jersey Shore town of Spring Lake. He then extended that vision by opening a satellite office in Millstone Township in 2019.
Tom welcomes back Analyst and experienced commodities trader. Michael now provides advisory through his website moor-analytics to bring actionable intel for traders.
Michael is a technical-based analyst and has a deep understanding of commodities like the natural gas market. He believes that technical analysis can be a powerful tool to get in and out of markets before the fundamentals catch up.
The two experts discussed the technical patterns for gold, the S&P 500, and Bitcoin. For gold, they looked at various timeframes to gain more insight. On the S&P 500, they talked about the exhaustion levels and the bullish correction that could be triggered if the market holds. Michael also noted that the current character of the market is a corrective character, not a trending one. Finally, they discussed Bitcoin, noting that the rollover in November 2021 put the market into a bearish trend. However, they suggested that the market is building a base, and the nervousness has been put on hold.
Overall, Michael Moor is an experienced trader and technical analyst. He believes that technical analysis can be a powerful tool to get in and out of markets before the fundamentals catch up. He also looks at the macro level of a market, layering a shorter-term basis on top of that. He also looks at seasonality, which could be a major factor for example in the natural gas market. Finally, Michael is currently bearish on gold and expects a pullback in the near future.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Usefulness of technical analysis in predicting market movements ahead of fundamentals.
- The importance of seasonality in the natural gas market.
- Outlook for gold and why it could go quite high this year.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:00 – NatGas Chart & Trends
3:26 – Fundamentals?
7:13 – Thoughts on Crude
9:07 – Time Considerations
12:12 – Positioning
14:06 – Energy Strategies
20:43 – P.M. Analysis
25:10 – Gold Bull Trends
28:21 – General Equities
32:40 – Bitcoin Outlook
37:48 – Wrap Up
Guest links:
https://www.moor-analytics.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-moor-119b492/recent-activity/
https://twitter.com/Michael15564596
Michael Moor studied Management and Finance at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) in order to get a more technical financial background. After starting with Citigroup, he moved on to be a Trader’s Assistant for Chicago Research & Trading (CRT) on the trading floor of the NYMEX, working with futures and options pit traders. He developed a reputation for consistently making large directional calls in the markets, and started Moor Analytics at the request of two Natural Gas and Crude Oil option traders. This grew to encompass over 1/4 the NYMEX membership as clients, and was the #1 large-call published analyst on the NYMEX for over 10 years until he moved the business off the floor. He has since also included European energies and Gold, and currently has proprietary traders, hedge funds, and oil companies as clientele.
Tom welcomes back Andrew Hoese from Finding Value Finance to the show. Andy runs an educational channel where he digs deep into economic data and conducts chart analysis.
Andy Hoese discussed the real estate cycle and its effect on other markets. He explained that the cycle is driven by demographics and consists of four stages: recession, recovery, expansion, and hyper supply. Currently, he believes that we are in the recovery stage, but if interest rates are not lowered, then we are in the hyper supply stage.
He believes that the Federal Reserve is stuck in a tricky situation, as they must manage inflation and the baby boomer retirement, while also considering the base effect of inflation. He suggests that current inflation is being driven by credit expansion and the demographic that is coming into their peak spending years. This leads to a commodity super cycle and an imbalance between credit creation and things being created in the economy.
The Fed will have to hold interest rates higher in order to prevent a large inflationary problem, but that they will eventually relax and hold rates steady. He suggested that investors look for fractals and fundamentals when evaluating potential investments and pointed out the importance of using ratios to analyze investments.
He believes that platinum is particularly attractive right now because it is inexpensive compared to other metals, and energy service companies could benefit from an upswing in the market. Ultimately, the speaker believes that if a solution to cheap energy production is found, it could shift the current market conditions.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Real Estate Cycles
8:14 – Wages & Inflation
11:43 – The Fed Pause?
20:38 – PPI/CPI Ratio Chart
23:44 – M2/GDP Ratio Chart
25:22 – Ratios & Market Flows
29:13 – Rates & Inflation
30:00 – China & Global Demand
33:40 – Q.E. & Malinvestment
40:49 – Gaining The System
44:48 – Best Looking Sectors
50:58 – Energy Services & Uranium
54:13 – Energy Ratio Charts
59:50 – Uranium Charts
1:06:10 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The real estate cycles and the impact of demographics.
- The Fed’s tricky position of managing inflation expectations.
- The outlook for commodities including energy, metals, and mining.
Guest Links
Website: https://www.finding-value.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Finding_Finance
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/ilikcagrls/videos
Andy Hoese is a Colorado-based investor and entrepreneur who is passionate about teaching people about the financial markets. He was born in Minnesota and graduated with a degree in manufacturing engineering from California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, CA.
Andy grew up with an affinity for mountain biking, dirt bikes, and competitive sports such as baseball and hockey. He was always good at math and science, which made his engineering degree the perfect fit. After working in aerospace engineering at his first job, he developed an obsession with investing and financial markets and would spend hours on YouTube researching and learning.
Andy started his own YouTube channel, Finding Value Finance, in August 2020. He is an avid car enthusiast who owns several rotary cars, including an RX-7 FD and an RX-8. He also likes to get out on the track for some racing during the summer and fall, and has been working out regularly since the age of 16.
Andy’s three-pillar approach to investing includes ratios, market conditions, and technical analysis. He looks for alignment between these three factors when evaluating potential investment opportunities.
He is passionate about helping others to progress their own investment journey in a positive way, and hopes to make a lasting impression on everyone who joins his journey.
This episode is broken into two parts. This is part two.
David continues the conversation discussing which commodities will be highly strategic. He believes all the metals are set to take off along with oil.
David discusses the role of commodities in the conflicts of the world and how governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to secure essential resources and protect their economies. He also talks about the collapse of real wealth due to inflationary dynamics and asset price depreciation, as well as the devaluation of the dollar due to the money printing of central banks. He argues that the only lever central banks have to fight inflation is to raise rates, but this could have a crushing effect on markets and people’s wealth.
David discusses various geopolitical themes to watch for in the coming year, such as the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, and inflation. David predicts that China may make a move soon and that the US, Japan, and South Korea would be the targets of a possible preemptive strike. He believes that Russia does not have the ability to mount an effective offensive in Ukraine and the Allies in NATO are prepared to back a Ukrainian victory. David also talks about the importance of being prepared for surprises and adapting to changing conditions. Finally, he reflects on the human desire to fight, noting that warfare can bring people together for a common cause.
0:00 – Intro
0:24 – Strategic Commodities
3:49 – China & Supply Chains
7:14 – Real Wealth Collapse
9:05 – Dollar & Devaluation
11:50 – Inflation Path & Rates
14:37 – Gold the Anti-Entropic
19:04 – Metals & Mining Stocks
23:02 – Geopolitical Themes
29:40 – Change & Perspective
37:03 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From this Episode
- Commodities such as metals, oil, and other essential resources are set to take off in 2021 and governments should move towards a hybrid market command system in order to protect their economies.
- Central banks are likely to raise interest rates to fight inflation, which could have a crushing effect on markets and people’s wealth.
- Geopolitical themes to watch for in 2021 include the Taiwan conflict, the Biden presidency, inflation, and potential preemptive strikes. Additionally, the human desire to fight can bring people together for a common cause.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
This episode is broken into two parts, second part will be out Wednesday.
Tom Bodrovics interviews global forecaster and author David Murrin on the topic of the road to war being peppered with polarization. Murrin explains that the human strategy for survival is through social structures, and that wars between a weaker system and a rising system are necessary to create a better outcome. He also explains that war is regulated by the Kondratiev cycle which takes place every 56 years. He then talks about how China is seen as the primary polarizer, with America as the secondary polarizer. He then moves on to discussing Germany and how it has not yet responded with secondary polarization. He believes that Germany’s reunification with East Germany was a reverse takeover, and that Germany has been subverted by Putin. Murrin then talks about the UK’s response to Russia, and how misguided it is to not be increasing defense spending while at war with Russia. He says that the UK needs to be spending 5% of its budget on defense until the threat of China and Russia is abated.
David discusses the importance of lateral thinking, particularly in times of war. He posits that dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world. He explains the concepts of hunter-gatherers and agrarianism, pointing out that when the Western world is in decline, there is a disproportionate number of linear leaders who aren’t able to adapt. He then moves on to discuss his five stages of empire model, which is a construct to explain human social systems, and the Kondratiev cycle. Central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to their linear thinking. He argues that the current wave of inflation is likely to lead to further escalation of wars and that China’s need for commodities will drive its agenda.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – Polarization & War
6:07 – Germany’s Response
15:30 – Political Oscillations
16:53 – Stages of (Empire) Decline
27:46 – Disordered Thinkers
35:49 – Commodity Cycles
Talking Points From This Episode
- David Murrin discusses the Kondratiev cycle, which takes place every 56 years and regulates war.
- According to Murrin, dyslexia and lateral thinking are key qualities that can provide game-winning strategies and are underutilized in the Western world.
- Murrin explains how war is often linked to commodities and how central banks have been unable to predict and manage inflation due to linear thinking.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastr
Website: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David’s work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm’s private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011. In addition, through Emergents Advisory Business, David was responsible for the critical fund-raising for Heritage Oil, allowing it to expand significantly by investing in its Uganda exploration program. He took full control of Emergent in 2011, combining his management of the Geomacro fund with the role of Chief Executive Officer until 2014.
David has been described as a polymath and his career of more than three decades has been focusing on finding and understanding collective human behavioral patterns including deep-seated patterns in history and then using them to try and predict the future for geopolitics and markets in today’s turbulent times. He has a remarkable track record.
Davids advisory and future trends speaking are based on his direct investment experience combined with a framework that can be used to explain and qualify decisions within an investment team, aid risk assessment and reduce biases in collective investment decisions.
In the desire to share his observations and predictive constructs, David has written four books.
Matt Piepenburg once again joins Tom Bodrovics on Palisades to discuss the Great Reset proposed by Klaus Schwab, and how it is a symptom of a broken and debt-soaked developed economy. Matt believes Schwab is an opportunist taking advantage of the COVID crisis, and his idea of ‘stakeholder capitalism’ is actually extreme centralization. This has never worked in history and has led to an addiction to debt, which has been weaponized by pharmaceutical companies, science, the media, political parties, and regulatory bodies.
Matt argues that journalists are no longer unbiased and have become propaganda tools. He believes many politicians have become opportunists and most people are good, but their faith in politicians is fracturing. Matt believes that any type of centralized system goes against human nature and the debt crisis has caused a massive wealth transfer from the lower and middle classes to the top 10%. This has left people too tired and too debt-strapped to take a stand for their freedom and makes them vulnerable to opportunists like Schwab.
Matt argues that the stock market has gone up due to money printing and rate repression, which is not what Adam Smith or free market capitalism was designed for. This has been great for the top 10% of American wealth, but it has destroyed the middle class and caused an addiction to this type of easy money. Matt believes that central bank policies have had an inflationary, social, wealth transfer, or political effect, which Ben Bernanke was awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics for. He calls out George Santos and Sam Bankman-Fried for their lies, and believes politicians should be held accountable for their decisions.
Matt believes that an objective truth is needed to determine what is right and wrong, and that the inflation scale used to measure the economy is completely fraudulent yet still widely accepted. He believes the Fed’s pivot to quantitative easing will cause hyperinflation and further fracture faith in the Fed. He suggests that a reset may be the only option, but this could be highly chaotic and could be used to control people.
Matt explains that gold is a valuable asset for currencies and is an inflation hedge. He also likes agricultural land and Bitcoin’s narrative, as gold offers certainty and security. He believes the US will experience stagflation, with slow growth and rising inflation, and that the Fed’s pivot will be very dangerous. Matt encourages people to think more critically, question what they are being told, and be open-minded to changing their opinions. He believes sound money, regardless of what form it takes, is the solution to the issues that come with printing money.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – The Great Reset & Debt
13:45 – Collectivism Vs. Freedom
23:13 – Free Markets Are History
29:25 – Metrics and Fictions
31:58 – Fed Pivot & Narratives
43:40 – Modern Journalism
50:33 – Sound Money Alternatives
55:46 – Quantitative Kool Aid
1:02:22 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset is a symptom of the broken and debt-soaked developed economy.
- The debt crisis has caused an addiction to debt and weaponization of pharmaceutical companies, the media, political parties and regulatory bodies.
- Centralized systems goes against human nature and has caused a massive wealth transfer.
- Gold offers certainty and security as it cannot be mouse-clicked, hacked, or recreated and can’t be controlled in the same way as a central bank digital currency.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Website: https://goldswitzerland.com/
Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/
Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the acclaimed author of the Amazon #1 Release, “Rigged to Fail”. He is fluent in French, German and English, and a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA) and the University of Michigan (JD).
Prior to joining MAM, Matthew invested his own and other HNW family funds into alternative investment vehicles while operating as a General Counsel, CIO and later Managing Director of a single and multi-family office. He also worked closely with Morgan Stanley’s hedge fund platform in building a multi-strat/multi-manager fund to better manage risk in a market backdrop of extreme central bank intervention/support. His conviction that precious metals provides the most reliable and longer-term protection against potential systemic risk ultimately led him to join MAM.
Matthew’s widely respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behaviour of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael discusses where we are in the bear market and how much longer it could last. He believes the next lows will set the tone for the bear market. Continued weakness in the Nasdaq is very bearish for broader equities, and since last June, there has been a lot of sideways chop in the S&P. A sell-off after the next high is certainly a possibility, and we should expect more volatility in markets this year.
The opposite is true of silver and gold, as the Fed is likely to become concerned about problems in the financial sector. Janet Yellen has commented on the lack of liquidity in the bond markets, and though 30-year bonds are in rally mode, Michael is skeptical that rates have peaked. A decline in bonds with rising yields seems likely. There is also pressure on the Fed which could lead to its demise in a few years.
We’ve seen a lot of paper assets decline in the past year, while gold and commodities have held up well. Consumer credit is skyrocketing, along with persistent inflation that is hitting families hard. Repossessions and mortgage failures are likely. If there is a new wave up in commodities, it will only further erode confidence in our leaders.
Silver’s spread has broken out and is doing quite well in percentage terms; Michael compares gold’s historic moves with today’s, noting historically it’s not unusual for gold to have eight-fold moves in a few years. He thinks the same could happen with silver and doesn’t rule out $200 silver. He believes Bitcoin has been beaten up enough and will move sideways for some time.
Uranium has also been holding up well compared with pullbacks in oil and natural gas.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – Bear Market Thoughts
5:45 – S&P, Gold & Silver
7:50 – Rate Hikes & Fed
12:08 – Dollar Confidence
14:50 – Fed’s Options & Impact
20:53 – Inflation & Commodities
28:38 – Blame The Fed?
34:23 – Energy & Investors
37:28 – Gold Strength & Silver
45:10 – Bitcoin Reliability
48:32 – Thoughts on Uranium
51:02 – Expect a Volatile 2023
52:35 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The bear market and how much longer it could last.
- Gold and silver have been performing opposite to the bear market.
- An eight-fold move in gold is possible and has occurred historically.
- The Fed could soon reach a confidence crisis when its policies fail to work.
Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5
Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week’s report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
Tom welcomes back Don Durrett Author, Investor & Owner of GoldStockData.com to the show.
Don believes that the financial media and government tend to release bullish information which is inaccurate and misleading. He believes the real threat is the economy not coming back to life, since the Fed rarely gets anything right. A new liquidity crisis or “Lehmann moment” is coming. The Fed will have to react to the economy instead of steering it.
Don is bullish on gold and silver and thinks that commodities such as energy, copper and most others will rise this decade. He believes we will also have a rally in the dollar as a fear trade.
Don predicts that gold will have a pullback to the $1740 region once Wall Street realizes there won’t be a soft landing. He believes silver will eventually reach $100. This will be preceded by a growing supply deficit which will manifest in a shortage of 1000 ounce bars.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Don’s Substack
2:04 – Fed & Flawed Metrics
9:25 – A Reactive Fed
13:10 – Equity Market Outlook
18:18 – No More Cheap Goods
23:46 – Energy & Inputs
29:04 – The Dollar & Rates
37:05 – 2023 Gold Strength
42:35 – Silver Supply
51:50 – Optionality & Miners
1:01:30 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Expect the Fed to react to the economy with lower rates and more printing.
- Commodities rising this decade and the gold silver ratio eventually reach thirty.
- Wall Street must accept the economy won’t have a soft landing for gold to break $1950.
- Don gives us this thoughts on optionality in the miners.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Tom welcomes back Bill Holter of Miles Franklin to share his insights on the current state of the US economy and the looming debt crisis.
He explains that the current system is unsustainable, with the US debt now exceeding $32 trillion and a total of $200 trillion in debt promises. He notes that the US government is using deficit spending and inflation to try and maintain its economy, but this won’t work in the long run.
Bill suggests that a national sales tax could simplify the tax code, but due to the current political climate, this won’t happen anytime soon.
Foreign nations are no longer relying on the US dollar to conduct business, and are instead turning to gold, yuan, and rubles for transactions.
He suggests that individuals should begin to think in terms of ounces of gold and silver instead of dollars, as it is likely that this will be the new currency when the current system collapses.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Jekyll Island Creature
2:27 – Money Growth Trends
4:07 – Derivatives
6:09 – CBDC & Totalitarianism
9:18 – Consumers & Credit
11:48 – Self-Sufficiency
14:04 – Financial Censorship
16:54 – Abolish IRS & Flat Tax
19:26 – The Kabuki Uni-Party
20:45 – Debts & Deficit Spending
23:10 – Worlds Perspective
26:05 – Ounces Not Dollars
26:53 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- U.S. debt now exceeds $32 trillion with over $200 trillion in debt promises.
- The US government is using deficit spending and inflation to try and maintain its economy, but this won’t work in the long run.
- Foreign nations are no longer relying on the US dollar to conduct business, and are instead turning to gold, yuan, and rubles for transactions.
Guest Links:
Facebook: https://facebook.com/groups/jsmineset/
Website: https://milesfranklin.com
Email: bholter@hotmail.com
Bill Holter writes and is partners with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to the management of paper assets as he foresaw the Great Financial crisis coming. In retirement, he and his family moved to Costa Rica, where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. He was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.
Bill has retained a working relationship with Miles Franklin and can help with your precious metals needs, including transacting, shipping, storage, and even safe deposit boxes in non-bank vault facilities. Feel free to contact him with any of your questions or needs.
Tom welcomes back Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, to the show. Lyn discusses the difficulty of safely storing wealth from the perspective of inflation and financial censorship. The current world financial system is composed of 180 local monopolies, within which governments demand that wealth is kept, but most are terrible at preserving value. Out of these, only a dozen are any good at holding value. The current system has many inefficiencies and brings significant risk to most.
Half of the world lives under varying levels of authoritarian governments, which often use the financial system as a weapon and have banks that censor global payments.
Historically, money operated at the speed of commerce, but this changed with the advent of modern communications. This delay between payments and delivery of goods has given governments and banks room to arbitrage. Lyn finds value in Bitcoin and some stablecoins, but she describes some of the problems and risks associated with crypto projects.
She also discusses the decline in the Federal Reserve’s remittances function and its impact on the U.S. Government’s finances. Lastly, she discusses the world’s energy requirements and the declining lack of return for what is being invested. Developing nations are looking for cheap, effective energy solutions, while wealthier countries are in a better position to adjust to new technology. She expresses concerns about the lack of capital investment in oil and how this spills over into mining.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Inefficient Money
4:03 – Financial Censorship
7:06 – Commerce & Money
11:50 – Crypto & Confidence
16:18 – Digital Gold?
20:30 – 2023 & Asset Growth
22:30 – Structural Inflation
24:44 – Fed Remittances
30:34 – Bank Loans & Yield Curve
31:14 – Energy & Inflation
38:43 – EROI & World Needs
45:00 – ESG & Trade Offs
46:55 – CapEx & Oil Sector
52:25 – PM Mining & Industry
56:13 – Key Questions in 2023
58:18 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The current world financial system is composed of 180 local monopolies, with very few of them being able to effectively preserve value.
- Governments and banks have taken advantage of the lag between payments and delivery of goods to arbitrage, creating significant risk for most.
- Lyn discusses the declining lack of return for energy investments, and the lack of capital investment in oil and mining.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Website: https://www.lynalden.com/
Energy Article: https://www.lynalden.com/energy-problems/
Money Problems: https://www.lynalden.com/december-2022-newsletter/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or experienced, there’s a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor’s Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.
Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report, returns to the show and discusses his macro forecast from last year. He expected a dip but anticipated a faster recovery to a higher level than what transpired. The Fed hiked more than most expected as inflation got ahead of them, and the extent of the damage remains unknown.
The media complex has no interest in disrupting the established system, and this was evident when last week’s job report was released. The only new jobs being created are those with part-time or multiple jobs just trying to make ends meet. Craig questions the actions and words of the Fed, noting how they often fail to correlate and are generally overly optimistic. The evidence of a faltering economy is apparent, and Craig expects rates to be dramatically lower by the end of the year.
Craig then turns to the copper market, where global inventories have fallen by eighty percent in the past ten years. He believes that even within the confines of the current system, a powerful commodity rally is likely this year.
Lastly, He encourages listeners to educate themselves and not take what they see on CNBC at face value. He believes institutions are starting to move into metals, and encourages listeners to add to their stack of physical metal on the dips.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – 2022 Market Calls
3:20 – Lies & Propaganda
10:35 – Flawed Metrics & Jobs
15:05 – Pendulum & Gyrations
20:50 – Inflation & CPI
23:49 – China & Commodities
28:17 – Recession & Copper
30:26 – Commodities & Leverage
31:52 – Metals & Supply
39:36 – Inflation & Pendulums
42:31 – Miners & Patience
44:07 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Rates will be much lower by the end of the year, indicating a faltering economy.
- Global copper inventories have fallen by eighty percent in the past decade, likely leading to a powerful commodity rally this year.
- Craig encourages listeners to educate themselves and add to their stack of physical metal on the dips.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetals
Website: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe
2023 Macrocast Report: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/11886/macrocast-2023-one-step-beyond
Craig Hemke, aka “Turd Ferguson,” was a licensed securities “professional” for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as “financial services,” he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal “markets.”
Tom welcomes Patrick Karim back from NorthStarBadCharts to the show to discuss their latest charts. Patrick is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader.
Karim recounts a story of when he bought a penny stock without knowing much about risk management, only to watch it go to zero. He advises traders to always have access to charts and to use trend lines to identify when momentum has broken down. It’s important to not become attached to any asset and take profits when possible. Stories may change, so continually look for chart-based evidence. Wait for a breakout before investing.
Gold and silver prices are indicating that the current recession may be bottoming out. Charts demonstrate past performance during recessions. Silver often bottoms out before a recession was formally declared. The Fed funds rate chart and total public debt suggests that there may still be room for a spike in initial jobless claims, implying that a bigger recession may be around the corner. Patrick makes the argument that fundamentals should be prioritized less and more time should be spent on the price of assets. Since that is what causes the markets to react.
Karim shows several charts which demonstrate past correlations with recessions and the utility of heat maps in quickly determining market sector trends.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Trends & Sentiment
7:40 – Trading & Dumb Luck
13:05 – Gold/Inflation
16:48 – Silver Chart
19:28 – Jobs, Debt, & Recession
23:10 – Initial Claims & Gold
26:10 – Gold vs SPX
30:06 – Other Ratio Charts
31:54 – Heat Mapping
36:32 – Energy & Recession
42:14 – Yachting & Drinks
43:13 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Sentiment and the importance of watching Technicals.
- Patience and why investors should wait for breakouts and take profits where possible.
- Outlook for energy and the utility of heat maps to track sectors.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthStarCharts
Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.com
YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick’s background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
Note: This episode will not be released on YouTube, you need to go to one of the links below for the full version. Alternatively, you can listen to the podcast or scroll down to the bottom of this page for our audio player.
Follow the links below for the full video or listen to the podcast version.
Rumble: https://rumble.com/v24810w-chris-irons-life-and-conspiracies-in-the-age-of-unaccountability.html
Odysee: https://odysee.com/ChrisIronsPart2LifeAccountability:69601707bed1cbf3643fdba5ca2381fbe1f919bd
Tom and Chris continue their discussion as they dive deeper into topics that some find controversial. They discuss the COVID-19 vaccine, the potential risk of myocarditis associated with the mRNA vaccines, and the importance of thinking for oneself. Chris shares his insights on the recent protests in China, and the idea of taking personal responsibility for one’s own life. They also talk about the lack of trust in narratives pushed by authorities and the concept of group think.
Chris emphasize the importance of staying calm in stressful situations and how practicing things like being uncomfortable and pushing your limits can help one prepare for life’s unexpected events. They also discuss the hedonistic treadmill and the importance of relationships and conversations. Money and materialistic items do not matter as much as meaningful interactions and conversations.
Tom and Chris conclude by stressing the importance of conversations and exploring one’s own consciousness and sovereignty over their own minds. They remind listeners to think for themselves and make decisions that are best for them and their families, rather than just following the herd. They finish by emphasizing the importance of freedom and liberty, as everyone has different priorities and ways of thinking.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:46 – mRNA Tech & Myocarditis
4:47 – Dr. Peter McCullough
9:00 – Age of Unaccountability
18:36 – Political Credibility
22:20 – Think For Yourself
25:16 – Personal Development
26:04 – Intuition & Conviction
32:53 – Taking Responsibility
35:30 – Movie – The Whale
37:08 – What Matters in Life
44:37 – Hedonistic Treadmill
47:46 – Being Uncomfortable
57:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Thinking independently and making decisions that are in one’s best interest and those of their family, instead of blindly following the crowd.
- Remaining composed during difficult times and how experiences like poverty or discomfort can help one be better prepared for the unexpected.
- The significance of relationships and conversations, and how meaningful interactions are more important than money and material possessions.
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the creator of Fringe Finance, a blog dedicated to tackling complex and important topics in finance and other related fields. Through his blog and various curated content, Chris seeks to challenge the mainstream narrative and bring attention to the areas of finance often neglected by the mainstream media.
Chris has been an avid investor for many years and has a track record of identifying opportunities before they become mainstream. In 2019, he was able to foresee the Covid crisis and prepare himself and his readers for the subsequent market crash.
He has a passion for uncovering the objective truth and believes that discourse is the most important part of understanding complex topics. Chris encourages his readers to take the facts on their own and draw their own conclusions.
No matter the topic, Chris Irons will always bring an irreverent and honest approach to his work. With his content, he seeks to equip his readers with the tools and resources they need to make informed decisions.
Chris Irons, the host of the Quoth the Raven podcast and author of QTR’s Fringe Finance Substack, joins Palisades Gold Radio for a discussion about the market in 2023. The rapid rate hikes of 2022 have had a major effect on Main Street and caused people to take out more debt to make ends meet. Should the S&P take a 15% hit in 48 hours, the Fed will take action and become more dovish. Chris also talks about how the US is at its most precarious financial position ever due to its massive debt, inflation, trade deficits, and government spending. These factors are contributing to a slow slide that will eventually cause a drastic switch in the US’s reserve currency status.
Investors have been trained to expect the Fed to come to the rescue when the market crashes, and this could lead to a false sense of security. He also believes that the Fed can’t do a major cut due to the potential for inflation. Chris believes that the Fed will take a dovish stance and eventually cut rates, but this won’t be enough to prevent the market from crashing. He also believes that the US is at its most precarious financial position ever and that the world is bifurcating in front of us.
Chris also provides insights into his outlook on 2023, predicting that ARK could go to $15, and Tesla could fall another 90%. His advice to investors is to look at the risk of gold miners being nationalized and to consider the possibility of other factors such as yield curve control and foreign adversaries challenging the dollar’s reserve currency.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Chris Irons believes that 2023 will be a year of volatility and capitulation as markets respond to the rapid rate hikes in 2022.
- The Fed has “overshot the mark” and their policies will operate on a lag.
- The US is in its most precarious financial position ever due to its massive debt, inflation, trade deficits, and government spending.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:03 – A Macro Perspective
10:00 – Consumers Tapped Out
19:00 – Precarious Markets
21:46 – Investor Expectations
26:00 – Existential Risks?
31:31 – World is Bifurcating
34:32 – BRICS & U.S. Actions
42:30 – Tesla, Woods & ARK
49:00 – Hard Lessons in 2023
51:10 – Investors & Crypto
1:00:08 – A Flexible Mindset
1:07:38 – Gold At The Gate
1:11:32 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the creator of Fringe Finance, a blog dedicated to tackling complex and important topics in finance and other related fields. Through his blog and various curated content, Chris seeks to challenge the mainstream narrative and bring attention to the areas of finance often neglected by the mainstream media.
Chris has been an avid investor for many years and has a track record of identifying opportunities before they become mainstream. In 2019, he was able to foresee the Covid crisis and prepare himself and his readers for the subsequent market crash.
He has a passion for uncovering the objective truth and believes that discourse is the most important part of understanding complex topics. Chris encourages his readers to take the facts on their own and draw their own conclusions.
No matter the topic, Chris Irons will always bring an irreverent and honest approach to his work. With his content, he seeks to equip his readers with the tools and resources they need to make informed decisions.
Tom welcomes back Lobo Tiggre founder and CEO of Louis James LLC. He is the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com and his speciality is in evaluating resource companies.
Lobo starts out by explaining the dangers of believing theories that fit one’s worldview, but cannot be proven. Tiggre’s article “Rationalism versus Empiricism in Securities Analysis” warns against buying into theories peddled by salespeople. He uses the example of central banks buying gold to show how theories can be wrong and hurt investors. He then discusses the example of supply side deficits, and cautions against believing theories of scarcity. He explains why the cost of production does not always act as a floor for commodities, such as copper, during a recession. He cautions against succumbing to theories that sound too good to be true.
Lobo discusses the IMF’s prediction of a third of the world’s economies entering recession in the upcoming year. He voices that there are more negatives associated with the recession than positives in the form of China reopening. The world economy is fragile and there is potential for something to break and cause a new Lehman moment. He also mentions that gold and silver are a good form of insurance during this time of uncertainty and that the ECB may be more hawkish than the Fed in the near future, which could lead to a bearish dollar and bullish gold and silver.
Lobo is also bullish on uranium and is of the opinion that the nuclear renaissance is inevitable and that the green agenda cannot be achieved without it. He warns gold bugs to not be discouraged by the lack of performance in 2022 and encourages them to pay attention to inflation rates and the DXY.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – Untestable Theories
4:54 – C.B. Gold Buying & Price
8:26 – Supply Side Deficits
11:52 – Deficient Markets
15:27 – Recession Implications
20:54 – ECB Hawkishness & Fed
28:03 – DXY & Gold Benchmarks
31:46 – Magic Wands & Fairy Dust
33:33 – Politics & Power
37:36 – Energy, Gold, & 2023
44:00 – 2022 Thoughts & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
- Investors should be wary of theories peddled by salespeople and make sure they can be proven before investing.
- Gold and silver are a good form of insurance during this time of economic uncertainty.
- The nuclear renaissance is inevitable and the green agenda cannot be achieved without it.
Guest Links:
Website: https://independentspeculator.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguy
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name “Louis James.” While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has “skin in the game” with them.
Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates.
Lawrence discusses the changing investing landscape as it relates to the Federal Reserve’s continuing debasement of the currency and its three mandates of inflation, labor, and financial stability. He notes that the debt situation is becoming increasingly dire, with the interest on the debt doubling in just a few years, the deficit now over two trillion, with tax receipts declining. This debt doom loop will eventually unravel, leading to massive contagion and a complete collapse of financial stability.
He believes that hard money advocates are in the minority, but that if the government were to take responsibility, the current paradigm could be changed. Unfortunately, he notes that the level of understanding required to solve our economic problems is still lacking at a governmental level, and it will take a lot more suffering before awareness is achieved. Inflation is likely to become the number one political issue, at which point sound money advocates may be given a chance to present their solutions. But at present, the Fed is continuing to print more money in an attempt to solve the problems, which will only lead to a further devaluation of bonds and stocks.
Time Stamp References
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Fed & Inevitability
7:00 – Mathematical Certainties
13:40 – Japan & Gov’t Arrogance
20:24 – Home Sales & Recession
23:50 – Metals Potential
26:07 – Sentiment & Miners
29:42 – New Bretton Woods?
36:08 – Bitcoin Benefits
42:28 – Gold Benefits
46:50 – Crypto Regulation
54:36 – Concluding Thoughts
59:47 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The Fed’s worsening debt spiral and the certainties of mathematics.
- The Fed will be forced to pivot when something major in the debt system cracks.
- What if the government suddenly became fiscally responsible.
- The important characteristics of the Bitcoin invention and why it’s not going away.
Guest Links:
Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dT
Website: http://www.ema2.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Tom welcomes back, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content.
The global economy is heading for recession, with some countries likely to experience severe problems. We have a sovereign debt crisis, personal debt crisis, and a central banking problem. The entire system is insolvent, and we’re going to see more problems surfacing. The system is so interdependent that one problem starts to bring everything down. It seems certain that the only way to maintain the status quo will be to continue printing. He believes they are setting up for the end game. Inflation will start wiping out most people’s assets. It’s also important to work towards preserving your personal liberty. We’re on a path towards totalitarianism.
The control grid espoused by the WEF and Davos are deeply philosophical questions. They seem to want an imposition of a control grid with many agendas, including taking away property ownership. They’re bringing us from crisis to crisis to gain our acquiescence.
We have no idea how many liabilities banks have and the extent of their counterparty risk. It seems that central banks themselves don’t know the extent of the risk. We’re seeing countries moving away from the dollar and towards commodities like gold.
We’re moving into a period where it will be quite hard to move money without being heavily scrutinized.
Government policy around carbon is going to have a profound effect on people. It seems like they will force people into economic hardship as a control mechanism.
He discusses some of the severe market distortions that are occurring in Europe and why these may be opportunities if you think ahead.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- The current financial situation and concerns regarding global agendas.
- Why inflation is likely here to stay and people need to become as independent as possible.
- Market distortions and the importance of a macro view to find opportunity.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Turbulent Paths
5:45 – Freedom & Choice
9:43 – Bailin’s & Banking
13:52 – Counterparty Risks
17:32 – Gold & C.B. Trust
21:37 – Cash & System Reliance
26:47 – Carbon Taxes & Food
30:35 – Distortions & Opportunity
33:20 – Investing in Assets
38:00 – Silvers Role
40:28 – Coming Instability
46:32 – Balance of Power Risks
49:30 – Community & Taking Action
52:40 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9Akw
Twitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mike
Patreon: https://patreon.com/parallelsystems
Mike is a precious metal’s investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.
David discusses the Lode project briefly and brings us his thoughts on why public mints should be to meet the public demand for metal. This year’s U.S. mint production has been low and prices have gone through the roof. The law has recently changed at the Mint’s request regarding their requirements for meeting demand. They are using the excuse of having to meet proof quality coin demand first.
Bix discusses his concerns with the lack of production and the mint’s failure to properly hedge silver. This has resulted in losses for the Mint in 2021. A discussion of high premiums and the current collapse in retail silver ensues with Bob.
Metals manipulation and spoofing is also discussed, but Bob notes that it’s often difficult and time-consuming for regulators to prove.
The Fed is also discussed and how they seem a bit trapped on inflation. Metals are primarily concerned with risk and Bob express concerns about the U.S. elections coming up in 2024. We’ve kicked the can down the road and failed to flush the malfeasance in the system.
David Morgan – Morgan Report
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
Bix Weir – Ex-banker dedicated to exposing the conspiracy to manipulate the Global crypto, silver and gold markets.
Website: https://roadtoroota.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/RoadtoRoota
Bob Coleman – Idaho Armored Vault
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim Hunter – Registered Commodity Broker with Allendale
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1
Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Tom welcomes Peter Schiff, the CEO and Chief Economist of Euro Pacific Asset Management, Chairman of Schiff Gold, and host of Schiff Radio to the show.
Peter discuss the Fed’s approach to inflation and why the they are purposely keeping the truth from the public in order to prevent a crisis. He believes inflation will not go away until there is a will in Washington to get rid of it, and that quantitative easing to accommodate large deficits caused by reckless government spending will only increase inflation.
He also noted that while deflation is often seen as a bad thing, it is actually beneficial for consumers who can buy items cheaply. Peter believes that the current 2% inflation target is no longer relevant and that the government has created a safety net that has become a hammock for some people, eliminating many unskilled jobs.
He believes that the minimum wage law has made it impossible for young people to gain the skills they need to move up the job ladder, creating a permanent underclass.
The Fed has run out of tools to help the economy and free markets were not allowed to work during the COVID crisis. Gold is coming back in a big way due to the devaluation of fiat currencies. Lastly, Peter argues gold is more efficient, less volatile and expensive, and faster than Bitcoin.
Talking Points From This Episode
- The current state of the labor market and the Fed’s 2% inflation target is no longer relevant.
- Government regulations stifle company growth, and less regulation has actually led to less fraud.
- Investors should focus on international markets, emerging markets, commodities, and value stocks.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Honesty at The Fed
7:08 – Fed & More Hikes?
10:03 – Scary Deflation
14:10 – Blame Inflation
15:20 – Inflation Targets
18:35 – Unemployment Rates
26:02 – Fed & “Solutions”
30:05 – Covid Spending Spree
32:47 – Gov’t & Free Markets
36:20 – Competition & Efficiency
40:50 – New Investment Paradigm
46:48 – New Era & Digital Gold
50:13 – Silver Vs. Gold
52:40 – Sound Money & Education
55:08 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Podcast: https://schiffradio.com/
Website: https://schiffgold.com/
Website: https://europac.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIjuLiLHdFxYtFmWlbTGQRQ
Peter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy – How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals.
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for In The Money Stocks.
Gareth discusses why Japan moving rates slightly higher has had an outsized effect. This is the first sign of a fundamental change in Japanese policy. The dollar is down in response, which could also be a result of expectations of coming economic weakness.
We’ve had inflation for several years now, and it seems likely that the Fed will be resistant to printing. Eventually, things could get bad enough that they will be forced to print to stimulate growth. He believes a big recession is in the cards and will last longer than most expect. He believes the S&P won’t hit new highs for at least a decade.
Gareth discusses the problems working against the dollar, and why he believes it will be years away before the Fed begins printing again. Other countries are also applying pressure by finding alternative methods of trade. Trillions of dollars are overseas that could be dumped on the market.
Stocks have yet to factor in the possible poor earnings growth next year. Gareth sets out some possible targets for the S&P next year.
Big money is not coming back to crypto until there is transparency in that market. He expects to see 9000 by May or June 2023 in Bitcoin.
He expects gold to outperform in 2023 and there should be upside of about 2300. We’re seeing similar patterns right now to that of the mid-70s.
He believes silver may see a super-spike not unlike seen in the 80s and 2011.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Japan, Rates & Dollar
3:38 – Re-Stimulation?
6:18 – Dollar Chart & Tops
8:06 – Euro/USD/Yen Charts
10:15 – Global? Recession
11:55 – Fed Reaction & Dollar
14:42 – 2023 Equity Outlook
16:46 – Nasdaq Volatility
17:53 – Crypto & FTX
19:39 – Pick for 2023
21:12 – Drivers For Gold
22:41 – A Silver Superspike?
24:30 – ETF & Resources
25:40 – GDX Chart Outlook
27:35 – SLV & SIL ETF
29:10 – Oil Demand & 2023
30:38 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway
Website: https://inthemoneystocks.com/
Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.com
Blog: https://inthemoneystocks.com/author/gareth/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. “Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets,” he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together, and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
InTheMoneyStocks was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected. Gareth’s goal was to help average investors beat the best hedge funds and traders on Wall Street by teaching them the methodology and giving them his trades as he took them LIVE!
Since 2007, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has maintained an over 80% success rate on swing trade alerts (verified 300+ trades per year) given to members in Verified Investing Alerts (formally named the Research Center) and a confirmed 94% success rate on day trades in the Live Day Trading Chat Room. He has given lectures at colleges around the United States, been asked to train hedge fund traders in other countries, and taught thousands of investors how to invest and trade profitably, achieving their dreams of financial independence. He lives life to the fullest and puts his heart and soul into teaching his members who come willing to learn the PPT Methodology.
Tom welcomes back Charles Nenner. Charles provides independent market research to hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients.
He discusses how commodity cycles typically work and why he believes inflation will pick up again. We’re in an inflationary period that will take about thirty years. We’re now seeing cycles with war, but he predicts there will be more tension and problems by the middle of next year.
They work with price predictions to help evaluate price cycles. Cycles predict mass psychology and the opinion of investors. It’s based on an assumption that things don’t move randomly, but operate on basic laws of nature.
He believes the Fed will back off in their aggressiveness, at least until the inflation cycle starts back up.
The Baltic dry index shows what is occurring in the economy, and it tracks insider activity very well. He’s expecting further declines in equities, and it’s normal to get 10-20% bounces during bear market declines. Don’t get drawn in because the big guys will take advantage.
The weekly cycles for gold and silver need to bottom for the next big move. Soon we’re going to see a bull market, we’re just waiting for confirmation.
There is weakness in the dollar, and the relationship with other markets like gold tends to be complex.
He finds cryptocurrencies to be the easiest market to forecast because it’s all based on sentiment without fundamentals.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:35 – Commodity Cycles
2:35 – Analyzing Cycles
4:25 – Crude Oil Cycle
6:45 – Natural Gas
7:40 – Inflation & The Fed
10:08 – Buy Signals
12:58 – Baltic Dry Index
16:48 – Gold/Silver Signals
18:10 – 30 Year Bond Trend
19:01 – Recession + Inflation
20:25 – War & Dollar Outlook
23:15 – Debt & Culture Decline
25:19 – Crypto Analysis
27:00 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Market cycles and their importance in gaining returns.
- His Outlook for 2023 and why he expects further turmoil.
- Debt and cultural decline of western nations.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NennerResearch
Website: https://www.charlesnenner.com
In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman’s fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001.
From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor, NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner’s use of proprietary cycle analysis.
Charles graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.
Tom welcomes back private investor and engineer Chris Rutherglen. During the past year, he started a Substack which is more useful for long-term content. It’s called Gold Investor Research, and he discusses a recent article where he expects gold to head in the short term. The Fed is likely to have done a 50 basis point rate hike on Wednesday. That coupled with the CPI print could send gold in either direction, possibly higher. Looking at markets from multiple perspectives is beneficial for determining where things are likely to head.
He provides a number of interesting charts which analyze the long-term price movements for gold. He charts the TIPS against gold to try and understand inflation expectations and where the gold price could move.
Chris discusses why gold could move to $3000 in the next move based on its historic patterns. During has hit its seven-year cycle high when the Fed reaches the middle of its rate cutting phase, with the low at the end of the cutting phase. The sweet spot for gold is coming.
Things are starting to look good for gold investors, although many may have lost patience. 2023 is shaping up to be a good year.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Substack & Gold Pricing
4:10 – Gold Volatility
9:00 – COT Report Trends
12:52 – Gold Price Cycles
16:38 – Long-Term Gold Charts
21:36 – 1970s, Yield Vs. Gold
34:28 – Gold Price & Inflation
41:16 – Algos & Price Action
42:16 – Gold Consolidations
47:12 – Gold & Fed Funds Rate
56:43 – Gold 7 1/2 & 15-Year Cycles
1:01:10 – HUI Overlay Chart
1:03:58 – Patience & Evidence
1:05:00 – S&P/GDP & CPI
1:08:34 – Investing Framework
1:10:08 – Metal Ratio Trading
1:12:23 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CRutherglen
Substack: https://giresearch.substack.com
Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm.
Danielle DiMartino Booth provides a comprehensive overview of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction policy, implications of this policy, and changes to the voting committee. She believes that the current mortgage rates are too high, making it difficult for the Fed to hit their target of rolling off $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month. This has resulted in losses of $1.25 trillion over the first three quarters of the year.
Tom suggests that the Fed should do a study of how inflation got so high. Danielle counters that the Fed has some pretty good ideas. She also mentions that the job openings data has been disproved by academics and that a large portion of job postings are for poaching successful employees.
Danielle expects Powell to be patient until the effects show up in the fiancial market.
Lastly, she notes the upcoming rotation of the voting committee which is shifting in a dovish direction but Powell has veto power to push back against dissenters.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Fed News & Damage
6:28 – Job Opening Data
8:40 – BOE Intervention & Fed
10:35 – Mortgage Rates & MBS
12:05 – Fed Security Losses
13:08 – Inflationary Causes?
15:04 – Fed Doves Are Flocking
16:45 – Powell’s Powers & FOMC
18:17 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The job openings data is being used by Chair Powell to justify his decisions, even though it is not reliable.
- The Fed’s balance sheet reduction policy and its potential implications are discussed, as well as the upcoming changes to the voting committee.
- Why the Fed should investigate how inflation got so high.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
Website: https://quillintelligence.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth’s The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.
Alasdair Macleod discusses the risks of being a creditor to a bank and the potential for depositor funds to be used to bail-in a bank in the event of its failure. There is potential for a crisis of confidence as such legislation has been passed by the G20 countries and should be a concern to large depositors.
He then looks at the derivatives market, which has grown massively since the 1980s during a declining rate environment. Now we’re at the point where interest rates have nowhere to go but up. This, along with off-balance sheet debt, could have a major impact on the European banking system.
He then turns his attention to China, whose economy appears to be recovering, with the government being in full control of their banking system. China is securing resources and has long-term contracts with other countries. In contrast to the West, who have pivoted away from the Saudi’s, China is accepting gold for oil with long-term contracts.
Macleod explains why gold is the only legal money in existence and why the COT Open Interest metrics suggest that the gold market is oversold. Finally, he comments on the situation with Ukraine and Russia and the potential for global changes that could lead to the destruction of Western currencies, and the importance of people acquiring real money, such as gold, as insurance.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Why Banks can use depositor funds to bail-in in the event of a failure.
- The risks with derivatives market have grown massively in a low interest rate environment.
- Golds importance in being legal money and it’s usefulness as insurance.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Banking Risks & Deposits
5:18 – Bail Ins & Bail Outs
9:33 – C.B. Balance Sheets
11:40 – Rates & Derivatives
16:55 – Pensions & Repo Market
23:15 – Global Recession Risk
29:04 – China, Oil, & Saudis
35:06 – Bitcoin & Interest Rates
41:32 – COT Report & Open Interest
48:20 – Ukraine & Europe
52:48 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinance
Website: https://goldmoney.com
Research: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
Tom welcomes back Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Energy, to discuss the increasing activity in the uranium space. Brandon believes it is a good time to invest in uranium equities, as it is a defensive asset.
The closing of nuclear plants had been a misguided idea, however, the world has now recognized this error. Reactors still require fuel, yet the current supply deficit means that what is available is being used up, and secondary sources are also declining. Further, utilities have used up a large portion of their own supplies.
There has been a fundamental shift in the public’s perception of nuclear power; if people approach it with an open mind, they should be able to recognize it as the answer. It has taken some time for this attitude to become acceptable in politics, yet it is now changing quickly. Countries like France are beginning to recognize it as the future of their economy.
Governments are now prioritizing funding of nuclear energy, as it helps energy companies cover the costs of capital, thus reducing the risks of constructing new plants. This is in spite of the fact that shale gas is very inexpensive, and there are numerous subsidies for renewable energy sources. However, rising energy costs and various issues with renewables have made new construction in the United States more practical.
Nuclear power is also appealing in terms of energy security, as countries can stockpile their own uranium reserves and thus ensure a secure energy source for whatever time frame they desire.
In the markets that matter today, the attitude towards nuclear energy has improved drastically, and the industry is now looking for ways to meet the coming demands.
Russia is the primary global enricher of nuclear fuel, thus leading to potential political implications. Plans to impose sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel by 2026 are in place. The excess mobile inventory has mostly been bought up by the Sprott Trust, and the world needs around $80 uranium to bring new mines and restart old ones. Few new projects can come online any time soon.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:45 – Uranium Equities
2:20 – A Defensive Investment
6:52 – Shifting Attitudes
11:06 – Recession Risks
15:04 – Deglobalization
19:24 – Public Opinion
21:26 – Russian Enrichment
28:26 – Timeframes & Production
30:07 – Inventory Signals?
32:39 – The Incentive Price
38:20 – SPUT & Carry Trade
41:16 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- There is a fundamental shift in public perception of nuclear power.
- Why governments are prioritizing funding of nuclear energy.
- Finding alternatives to using Russia for fuel enrichment.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BannermanEnergy
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Brandon_Munro
Website: https://bannermanenergy.com
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BannermanEnergy
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bannerman-energy-limited
Brandon Munro is CEO of Bannerman Energy, an ASX listed uranium development company that is focused on the large-scale and advanced Etango-8 uranium project in Namibia.
Brandon is an expert on uranium mining and the nuclear fuel cycle.
Brandon has over 20 years’ experience as a resources executive and lawyer, with qualifications in law, quantitative economics, finance and governance. His various industry roles include Chair of the World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Demand working group, which is responsible for forecasting global uranium demand scenarios to 2040. He is former Governance Advisor to the Namibian Uranium Association and Strategic Advisor to the Namibian Chamber of Mines. Brandon has held various voluntary board and committee roles in conservation, education and the arts.
As a uranium sector thought leader and author, Brandon is a respected voice in the nuclear energy sector and is a contributing expert to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.
Tom welcomes J.E.S., the author of “The Real Truth About Inflation,” back to the show to discuss the effects of interest rate hikes and how long it will take to move through the markets and the economy. Jes explains why interest rate hikes typically have a lag of 6-9 months, although it can be anywhere between 4-22 months.
In addition, they discussed the Taylor Rule, wage-price spiral, the need to incentivize energy companies to increase production, and the notion of decentralization. They also discussed the use of gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies and their potential to challenge traditional fiat currencies.
They also discussed the Cantillon effect, which is when newly minted currency is given to certain people or entities before it is released to the public. They further discussed the liquidity trap and how it perpetuates a recession, as well as the risks of global recession and the impact it has on debt. Finally, they discussed the implications of the destruction of the NordStream pipelines and the control of the narrative by governments.
Talking Points From This Episode
- Effects of interest rate hikes on the economy
- Incentivizing energy companies to increase production and reduce prices
- Challenges with traditional fiat currencies and moving towards decentralization
- Complexities of the current global climate and the need to be aware of government decisions.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Rate Hike Lag Effects
7:50 – Recession & Crashing
10:33 – Unemployment Levels
14:20 – Rates & Pricing Money
16:20 – Rates, Demand, & Inflation
25:40 – Wage & Price Spirals
28:50 – Supply Side Inflation
40:40 – Gold as Good Money?
49:00 – Currencies Vs. Money
52:20 – Crypto as Competition
1:04:50 – Fed & Conditioning
1:06:50 – The Liquidity Trap
1:14:10 – China, Gold, & Trade
1:23:20 – Russia & China’s Friends
1:25:55 – Sanctions Impacts
1:28:40 – Winter Just Starting
1:29:55 – NordStream & Choices
1:32:40 – Demand Problems
1:34:30 – Shutdowns & Narratives
1:35:40 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
E-Mail: aueconjes@gmail.com
Amazon Book Link: https://tinyurl.com/bdz9eue2
Tom welcomes Jay Martin, President & CEO of Cambridge House International and Host of the Jay Martin Show, to the program.
Jay discussed the risks associated with becoming overly attached to an asset, emphasizing the need to understand that an asset won’t love you back and that you will eventually be proven wrong. He acknowledged the importance of having physical gold for personal sovereignty and to help one sleep at night.
Gold is being sought after by both individual investors and major corporations and central banks, which speaks to the desire for independence and autonomy. Companies with strong resource equity returns are those with the right people involved, but the risk remains. Jay then pointed to the Canadian Federal and Provincial governments, where Trudeau has made headlines for the wrong reasons, and the energy situation in Europe, which is full of distrust and has yet to be resolved.
Finally, Jay shared his beliefs that we are overdue for a secular commodity run, though he remains concerned about near-term pain. Ultimately, he suggests that gold is a reliable asset to have in one’s portfolio to maintain personal sovereignty and have peace of mind.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:53 – Questioning Narratives
3:30 – Emotion & Taking Profits
4:34 – Physicals Importance
7:57 – Loan From Yourself
11:03 – Macro Risks & Holdings
13:08 – Resource Equities
16:07 – Thinking Clearly
17:20 – Canadian Problems
22:04 – Projection & Narratives
27:12 – Energy Crisis & Europe
35:29 – Nuclear Bets
38:41 – Commodity Supercycle
42:30 – Inflation & Hard Assets
50:01 – The Sovereign Mindset
53:32 – Risk Tolerance?
56:53 – Good Habits
59:36 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Importance of staying detached from investments and keeping sentiment in check.
- Having physical gold as a method of improving your personal sovereignty.
- Energy outlook for Europe and the coming resource supercycle.
Guest links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JayMartinBC/
Conference: https://cambridgehouse.com/vancouver-resource-investment-conference
Website: https://cambridgehouse.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJayMartinShow
Jay Martin is the President & CEO of Cambridge House International Inc.
His ideal day begins with a hard workout followed by dark coffee and a couple of hours to read anything related to futurism and geopolitics.
Since 2011 he has expanded Cambridge House from Canada’s leading junior mining conferences to become Canada’s most recognizable brand in public venture capital. Today, Cambridge House produces the largest investment conferences in the country in both technology and natural resources and hosts the largest video library of investment content in Canada.
Jay sits on the board of the Entrepreneur Organization, a global business community of over 12,000 leading entrepreneurs in 53 countries worldwide.
This is an edited version of our Twitter Space that took place on December 1st, 2022.
Note: In Part One of this Twitter Space, Tom Luongo discussed the Geopolitical situation with the Fed, Davos, and Europe.
David discusses the high-premiums and low mintages that we have been having on silver coins, particularly Eagles. Premiums on metals have been overly ratcheted up by bullion dealers. He also expresses concerns about the stability of Tether.
Jim discusses the controversy over the FTX CEO and questions why the American Justice System hasn’t put him in handcuffs. He seems to be protected. Bob notes that he is currently in the Bahamas, where it’s more difficult to extradite him.
O’Hare vigorously argues the metals are an inflation hedge when viewed over longer time frames. He sees silver as both monetary and industrial uses. All these entities and banks are struggling globally, there is a lot of stress in the system. He is starting to see increasing interest from larger players in the metal space and he gives some advice for investing in resource equities.
The Silver Institute estimates a supply deficit of 200 million ounces in silver for 2022. A lot of smelting and refining has gone offline in Europe due to energy costs.
Bob Coleman – Idaho Armored Vault
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
David Morgan – Morgan Report
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
Jim Hunter – Registered Commodity Broker with Allendale
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1
Website: https://allendale-inc.com
O’Hare
Twitter: https://twitter.com/OHare888
Tom Luongo – Host of the Gold, Goats’N Guns Podcast
Website: https://tomluongo.me
YouTube: https://bit.ly/2cWrwJ8
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
In Part One of this Twitter Space, we are joined by Tom Luongo and Bob Coleman. Tom discusses the political situation in Ukraine and expresses concerns about the FTX crypto exchange debacle. It appears those in charge want it to just go away. Tom notes the financial system today is all largely built on Ponzi schemes. It’s all a giant con-fidence game. Powell is trying to reduce dollar liquidity to soak up overseas dollar that are returning.
Bob discusses the precious metals markets and gives some actionable advice for those looking to avoid overpaying for metals.
In Part 2, due out soon, David Morgan, Jim Hunter, and O’hare join us to discuss the latest happenings in precious metals markets.
Tom Luongo – Host of the Gold, Goats’N Guns Podcast
Website: https://tomluongo.me
YouTube: https://bit.ly/2cWrwJ8
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Bob Coleman – Idaho Armored Vault
Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusid
Website: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
David Morgan – Morgan Report
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
Jim Hunter – Registered Commodity Broker with Allendale
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1
Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Tom welcomes Harley Bassman to the show. Harvey is Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management and Creator of the Move Indicator.
He explains the concept of convexity, which is simply a non-linear return. You have a bet where up or down moves are equally weighted for returns. Markets are a lot about character but hubris and ego are what get you on the front page of the New York Times. It’s important to understand your own biases and trade accordingly.
The Move indicator tracks the volatility of bonds, and he argues the Fed can’t raise rates too quickly. The Fed tends to respond around the 150 level. When the yield curve inverts, you’re going to get a recession in 12 to 18 months. We are currently deep into a yield curve inversion unlike any seen in the last 30 years. By Q2, we will likely be in recession.
He discusses why the Fed will continue to squeeze until something significant breaks. The middle class will be hit hard by inflation. What happens in the investment universe if inflation falls to four and stays at that level.
Demographics are important for determining where things will inevitably lead. Millennials will want to buy homes, but we’ve seen massive increases in housing prices. He feels housing prices have about 15 percent to come down, but doesn’t foresee a crash.
Likewise, he doesn’t find gold to be an investment, but more of an alternative currency. There isn’t a lot of it, and they aren’t making much more of it, so it fulfills an important function. It’s a disaster insurance policy.
Lastly, he discusses the correlation between stocks and bonds and how that is changing.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:40 – Convexity Concept
2:50 – Actionable Advice
5:10 – Move Index & Recession
14:27 – Powell’s Tough Job
16:32 – Inflation Outlook
22:02 – Declining Demographics
29:53 – Japan & Population
32:30 – Labor & Immigration
36:18 – Housing Markets
40:20 – Mortgage Backed Securities
43:39 – MBS Vs. REITs
48:36 – Fed & Soft Landing?
51:40 – Thoughts on Gold
53:45 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- The concept of convexity and how the Move index (indicator) measures bond volatility.
- Demographic problems and why the middle class will be hardest hit by inflation.
- Why MBS may be a good investment in this environment.
Guest Links:
Website: https://www.convexitymaven.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven
Website: https://www.simplify.us/
Harley Bassman created, marketed and traded a wide variety of derivative and structured products during his twenty-six year career at Merrill Lynch. In 1985, he created the OPOSSMS mortgage options product that facilitated risk transmission between MBS originators and financial institutions. In 1988, he assumed responsibility for trading and marketing IO/PO and other levered prepayment securities. Soon after this, he started purchasing RTC auctioned MBS Servicing rights and repackaged them for the securities market as BIGS – Beneficial Interests in GNMA Servicing. Later, he started a GNMA servicing conduit, becoming one of the Top 20 originators in 1992. As managing and hedging prepayment risk became a priority focus for the financial markets, Mr. Bassman created PRESERV, Merrill’s trademarked Prepayment Cap product. Merrill was a leader in this product category, writing protection that covered the risk on tens of billions of notional mortgage servicing rights. Later, Mr. Bassman managed Merrill’s initial venture into off-balance sheet mortgage trading.
In 1994, Mr. Bassman assumed responsibility for OTC bond options. Within a year, Merrill was the leader in this product sector. A wide variety of products were offered, including vanilla and complex options on MBS spreads and the Treasury yield curve.
To help clients more fully appreciate Volatility as a primary risk vector, he created the MOVE Index. Similar in form to the VIX Index, it is now the recognized standard measure of Interest Rate Volatility.
From 1995 to 2000 he focused on creating hedge strategies for MBS servicers and portfolio optimization techniques for Total Return and Index investors.
Mr. Bassman became the manager of North American MBS and Structured Finance trading in 2001. During his tenure, he created SURF, (Specialty Underwriting and Residential Finance), a self-contained Sub-Prime mortgage conduit. He supervised the issuance of Merrill’s first Sub-Prime securities. He also transitioned the structuring business to a new technology platform.
In 2006, he built the RateLab, a full spectrum US Rates Trading Desk Strategy Group. Here he worked with investors to advise and optimize their risk exposure. As a key member of the client trading business, he facilitated activity by providing liquidity to both the firm’s clients and market makers.
After a (too) brief sabbatical, in 2011 Mr. Bassman joined Credit Suisse’s Global Rates business where he identified and integrated investment and hedging opportunities for sophisticated investors.
From 2014 to 2017 Mr. Bassman was an Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO – a leading global investment management firm. Here he managed investments for the Liquid Alternative products group as well as advised on portfolio strategy across asset classes for the firm’s franchise businesses.
Presently, Mr. Bassman is a Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management, a designer and manager of ETFs that offer better portfolio solutions for Financial Advisors and Independent Investors. He will continue to pen an episodic macroeconomic Commentary, as well as manage a “hedge fund of one”.
Mr. Bassman splits his time between Laguna Beach, California and New York City. He has a B.A. in management science from the University of California, San Diego and an MBA in finance and marketing from the University of Chicago.
In this two-part presentation, Tom welcomes back Paul from The Sirius Report to finish a discussion on the rapidly evolving multipolar world.
Paul discusses what a BRICS Currency system will look like and why it’s likely to be backed by commodities and likely gold. The ideas behind BRICS are continuing to evolve as more nations join across the world. Soon we could have upwards of thirty countries involved, and they will have to figure out how to weight the system. This is a reality and no longer some sort of fictional idea. It’s now maturing into a proper system with good organization. They are also being cautious and considering the risks of moving too fast.
The West is going to have to radically re-assess every part of the economy, governance and adapt to a much better system. The U.S. believes it can bring it’s industrial base back, but they can’t afford the salaries. Then they will be unable to compete and can only serve the market internally. They will need commodities from the rest of the world.
The U.S. is dependent on the rest of the world for energy, and diesel in particular. There are many concerns about the sustainability of shale gas.
Paper markets for metals are massively manipulated. Markets are driven by algos and high-frequency trading. Markets today often react completely opposite to news.
There is a fundamental different mindset between western and eastern metals markets. You hold gold because it’s a bet against everything. Your other choice is to wait for the collapse, but then you won’t be able to get it.
The East continues to drain the West of metals, but eventually supply will no longer be available. That will mark the end of the paper markets and the beginning of true price discovery.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:46 – BRICS+ Currency System
18:58 – The Naked Emperor
26:50 – West Needs Cooperation
32:35 – Silver is Interesting
38:15 – Equally Great Nations?
41:16 – Metals & Manipulations
44:45 – Metals as Insurance
50:55 – True Price Discovery
1:01:40 – Distortions & Bubbles
1:11:30 – Credit Bubbles & Gold
1:14:13 – Wrap Up
Talking Point From Part Two
- How a BRICS+ Currency System is likely to evolve.
- Why the West needs cooperation among nations.
- Metals manipulation and the importance of having physical metals.
- The distortions in Western markets and system credit market problems.
Guest Links
Twitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport
Website: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa5XOgYU8ac_Ai4C1QXPOIg
The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that, we believe, are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.
The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity.
Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally, a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that ‘Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives’), he has also always had a keen interest in geopolitics. Through years of diligent research and conversations with certain key insiders, he has been able to gain a unique understanding of a geopolitical shift towards a multipolar paradigm that is now shaping the world in the 21st century.
Paul is not motivated by party politics and does not adhere to any particular political, religious or other movement. He likes a common-sense approach to everything and sees it as his responsibility to deliver completely objective, unbiased, and no-nonsense analysis, even if that means going against popular opinion.
In this two-part presentation, Tom welcomes back Paul from The Sirius Report to begin a discussion on the rapidly evolving multipolar world. In part two, we dive further into the BRICS Currency System and why gold and silver can protect you from all possible outcomes of an uncertain future.
Paul is concerned with the unintended consequences of the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions. The sanctions demonstrated clearly the level of ignorance within the West. They misunderstand how the Russian economy works and their alternative systems to SWIFT. Since 2014, Russia has been constructing new domestic markets to diversify themselves away from the West.
He explains the idea of the 'Global South' which includes 87 percent of the world's population that exists outside Europe and North America. The rest of the world took notice when Russian assets we're seized, and most countries are concerned they could be next.
Dedollarization is working because other nations are finding ways to use their own currencies to circumvent the dollar system. They are starting to avoid the expensive dollar by dealing directly with each other.
Europe and particularly Germany has been reliant on cheap energy from Russia. These nations could have signed long-term contracts last year for energy, but now the prices are much higher. The United States has been pressing the narrative that Russia is not trustworthy, even though they have been an extremely reliable trade partner. Countries can't simply change energy suppliers overnight, and "It's almost like a comedy of errors with potential catastrophic consequences." Europe is still receiving Russian energy through backdoor channels with other nations, but at much higher prices. The West can't change course on Russia due to the amount of political capital that has been invested.
Cooperation is happening between the global south and trade is already growing. The West doesn't understand how China and Russia's economies actually function. Soon, the global south will not need the west. Western politics is a constant conflict and a total waste of time. It's just an illusion of choice, and practically nothing gets achieved.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:24 - Sanctions & Consequences6:50 - The Global South17:48 - Japan & Treasuries19:07 - European Energy & Germany28:18 - Blame Russia & Politics32:47 - SWIFT Flight & Trade35:34 - Economic Planning42:29 - Ukraine in Collapse50:17 - Russian Fixation52:58 - Complexities54:52 - Red Lines & Escalation
Talking Point From Part One
The lack of understanding and consequences of Western nations regarding Russia and China.Why the era of cheap energy for Europe is now over.The lack of West to have long-term economic plans and the consequences.Europe's fixation on Russia and why politically they can't change course.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa5XOgYU8ac_Ai4C1QXPOIg
The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that, we believe, are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.
The site is run by ‘London Paul’ and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. ‘London Paul’ is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity.
Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally, a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major...
Tom welcomes back Diego Parrilla to the show. Diego is an author, engineer and economist. He has an extensive background in commodities, having worked for several major banks.
Diego believes the Fed hiking cycle is approaching its peak as we enter next year. There are limits to how high they can go, and the rate of hiking cycles has placed a lot of pressure on markets. The dollar has been putting pressure on other countries. There are pockets of weakness in the system, and it's difficult to know what might burst first.
How rapidly the Fed will pivot will depend on how markets react and the credit markets. Currency markets will also be a concern and there is excess hidden leverage in the system. Hopefully, central banks will learn the risks of zero and negative interest rates. The result is gross mis-allocations within the economic system.
Everything revolves around inflation and as we enter the next phase of markets, there is a perception that we will print less. Diego believes the inevitable result will be even more money printing. Eventually, the only way to sustain the system will be to grant central banks yield curve control. To prevent bubbles from imploding they will need to print more and that will result in further inflation. We're just delaying, transferring, transforming, and enlarging the problems.
The energy situation in Europe is very interesting because it shows the problems that have built up. There is a reliance on Russia and a lack of capital investment. Governments want energy security, but the problems can be exacerbated by hoarding. Energy subsidies will only increase the problems of production capacity.
He explains why he likes gold and feels that it is an anti-bubble investment option, even though it's been frustrating for many investors recently. He cautions that now is not the time to be using leverage and discusses how best to position one's portfolio.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Q4 Outlook3:50 - Lag Effects10:06 - Fed & Wealth Effects17:54 - Energy & Europe24:24 - Russia's Resources32:25 - China Outlook37:14 - Hong Kong Peg45:30 - Gold the Anti-Bubble50:48 - Gold & Hike Response54:56 - Volatility & Rebalancing1:11:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The Fed is reaching its rate hiking limits.The speed of the Fed's pivot will depend on the credit markets.Central banks will eventually be forced to use yield curve control as debts are unsustainable.Why gold is the ultimate anti-fiat bubble.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/ParrillaDiegoWebsite: https://www.linkedin.com/in/diego-parrilla-0a2b5530/Website: https://www.getrevue.co/profile/parrilladiegoWebsite: https://quadrigafunds.esBooks (Amazon):https://tinyurl.com/5a3pkjskhttps://tinyurl.com/ctdcmeb3
Diego Parrilla is Partner and Manager of Macro Commodities. He joined Quadriga in March 2017 with nearly twenty years of experience in macro, commodities, and sales and trading in London, Singapore, and New York. He has managed risk and global teams in prestigious investment banks, such as J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch, in various global leadership roles.
In 2011, Diego founded Natural Resources and Commodity Advisors (NARECO) in Singapore, advising institutional customers and managing macro strategies and raw materials.
He then joined the management team at BlueCrest as Portfolio Manager, managing $150m in macro absolute value strategies and raw materials. Later he led raw materials businesses at Dymon Asia and Old Mutual Global Investors in Singapore before returning to Spain to join Quadriga Asset Managers as Partner and Manager of Macro Commodities.
Tom welcomes back Jesse Felder. Jessie is the founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report.
Jesse discusses the various reasons people get involved in markets, and why it's not always money.
It's remarkable how well financial magazine covers like Bloomberg tend to signal a reversal. Recently, Bloomberg posted a cover with the unstoppable dollar, that aged well. These types of indicator are indicative of extremes.
The rising dollar is driven by hawkish Fed policy, raising rates over a short-term period. The market has priced in smaller hikes over the next few months. The Fed may surprise to the dovish side due to a deteriorating economy.
The Fed has trained the markets to expect them to come running to the rescue. Now they seem to have flipped to the opposite policy. The markets also know that the Fed can't afford another massive asset price bust. Jay Powell can't do what Paul Volcker did without creating a debt spiral.
A strong dollar, higher interest rates, and surging oil prices is a clear leading indicator that a recession is coming.
With the Fed printing a lot of new money recently, bond markets have become divorced from reality. Economic factors should drive bond prices, but supply and demand dynamics for bonds is becoming problematic. The debt has become so large that perhaps bonds no longer serve the role they once did.
He explains why the number of passive investors makes for incredible possibilities for value investors.
Jesse believes the commodity markets will continue to outperform for a considerable period. Sectors that have been starved of capital are likely to outperform in coming years.
Most investors have completely lost interest in the mining sector and gold. He shows an interesting chart of where gold prices could head from here based on past performance. Gold is quite cheap relative to the price of oil.
Be diversified and hedge your bets because we are in unprecedented times.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - History Vs. Human Nature4:00 - Dollar Euphoria & Sentiment8:35 - Dollar Path Forward15:50 - Fed Policy & Inflation22:42 - PPI Chart & Recession25:00 - Rate Hikes27:07 - Bond Vigilantes31:03 - Mortgage Applications34:06 - Cycles & Value Investing38:49 - Resource Underinvestment44:15 - Gold Sector Outlook47:40 - Gold Vs. Oil Ratio48:20 - Gold Vs. Stocks52:35 - Dollar Sentiment Shift?55:05 - Debt Challenges & MMT57:56 - Debt Spiral Risk59:19 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Sentiment and the alternate reasons why investors get involved in markets.The Fed has trained investor's to believe they will always intervene.Distortions in the bond markets have broken economic reality.Why value investing has great potential.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jessefelderWebsite: https://thefelderreport.com/
Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter, his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Tom welcomes back Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management. Michael is the author and publisher of the Lead-Lag Report.
Michael discusses how insane this year has been and how this is the only year in history where treasuries have lost more money than stocks. The only period it can be compared with is 1931. We're in very abnormal territory.
People can get overly comfortable if something isn't happening immediately. We saw that with FTX and Lehman Brothers collapses. The beauty of FinTwit is the ability to see the short-term perspective of investors.
Michael says, "When investment becomes religion, it's time to lose faith." This is what happens in markets people get overly confident in markets, and we're seeing margin calls in crypto. Usually, margin calls aren't limited to just one asset class.
He explains the terms risk on and risk off. For the bulk of this year, Toroso's signals have been risk-off and defensive. The melt-up scenario is still very much in play, but we're in a recession. Melt ups are basically just FOMO which eventually fizzle out.
A split government isn't a bad thing for markets and the economy. The best thing is to lower fiscal spending to reduce inflationary pressures long term. In many ways, the Fed may be trying to counter seasonality.
The strength in the dollar is usually tied to a good treasury market, but this year is the exception. The persistence of the dollar has been relentless until recently. The bear market will continue to take some time to play out.
We're setting records for the rate of change in many areas. All the statistics are showing that something is not normal. All investors can do is hope that it ends, and Michael is seeing some reason for optimism.
Gold needs the dollar to underperform, and the market needs to believe that a bear market will persist.
The link between miners and gold price is not that correlated. Miners are dependent on additional factors like energy and input costs to consider.
At some point, we end up in a similar debt to GDP situation with that of Japan. Who knows where we will be in another ten years.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Sanity Check3:26 - Contagion & Risk8:54 - Melt Up Thesis16:22 - Fed & China18:48 - OPEC & SPR21:53 - Commodities & Lumber23:50 - Dollar Strength26:25 - Foreign Dollar Demand29:39 - Gold & The Dollar32:17 - Gold Miners33:29 - Layoffs & Retail36:44 - Pivot & Future Inflation38:49 - Brazil40:45 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Why this year is highly abnormal in U.S. history.Risk on and off metrics and why he is positioned defensively.Why a split government is good for the economy and inflation expectations.The outlook for gold and correlations with miners.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.leadlagreport.com/Website: http://torosoinv.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/theleadlagreport
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, is Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management, an award-winning author and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report.
Michael is a well-respected results-oriented Investment Manager, showcasing 15 years of successfully executing initiatives that result in significant revenue growth. In addition, he is known for identifying and implementing various investment strategies to capture market anomalies while maintaining a business mindset beyond portfolio management.
Michael offers a proven track record of evaluating business/investment opportunities, quickly understanding market dynamics and relationships. He is also an out-of-the-box thinker committed to strengthening organizations' financial performance through dedicated hard work and a passion for investing.
He is a graduate of (Cum Laude) NYU Stern School of Business with a Double Major in Finance & Management and holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance & Management. In addition, he is a Chartered Financial Analyst from the CFA Institute.
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, she is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research and analytics firm.
Danielle discusses the amount of work that goes into every press release the Fed puts out. They have a hypersensitivity to how and what they place in these releases. Powell has a largely thankless job, and the question is are they relying on lagging information.
Danielle recently nicknamed Jerome Powell "make my day Jay" when he was told the markets were up during a press conference.
We're seeing larger moves in housing than was expected. Home prices are falling in half of the U.S. while some regions see prices still increasing as some people see it as an opportunity.
Amazon needs to match consumer demand, and we see them laying off people as demand declines. We're now seeing surplus inventory in the supply chains that no one is buying.
Powell's pain point will come when something critical breaks in the credit markets.
A yield curve inversion signalled that credit would be tightening. However, now the way to interpret it is in terms of banks extending credit. If banks can't see profit in lending, they won't lend, and then the economy will slow.
Lastly, Danielle discusses the recent FTX crypto exchange collapse and the concept of Central Bank Digital Currencies. Tom notes that the Ontario Teachers Pension had 90+ million invested in FTX. This is not the place you expect to find your pension plan investing diligently.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Fed & Press Releases2:28 - Powell Nickname5:13 - Carvana & Auto Sales7:59 - Housing & CPI Metrics13:22 - Wage Price Spiral19:07 - CPI & PPI Numbers23:05 - Fed Politics & Recessions27:40 - Powell & Credit Markets33:20 - Fed Data & Actions35:33 - U.S. & U.K. Pension Systems38:12 - Crypto & Regulators40:05 - CBDCs & Governments44:55 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The Fed's micromanaging approach to press releases.The Recent Fed press statement and Jerome's responding aggressively to being told markets we're up.The housing markets and excess supply in goods that no one is buying.The problems with pensions and the crypto markets.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothWebsite: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.
Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.
DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette,
Tom welcomes a new guest, Joseph Wang. Joseph is a former Senior Trader at the Federal Reserve's Open Market Desk and is the Author of Central Banking 101.
Joseph discusses the Fed's trading desk, which is also known as the plunge protection team. It collects market intelligence and performs Fed operations. The desk analyzes market activity and reports to the board of governors for their decision-making. They also have access to a lot of confidential corporate internal data. For him this was a very educational experience as it revealed a lot of what goes on behind the curtain.
He explains how the Fed can mitigate inflation through prices and the wealth effect. He believes yield curve control is inevitable due to the incredible amount of debt issuance.
The Fed is using the technique of making everyone a little bit poorer with the intent of muting inflation. Inflation is always a choice that governments can make, and it's also easy for them to reduce the money supply through taxation. The question is how bad are the side effects. It's all about trade-offs.
He discusses how the Fed is trying to target the real estate market. Housing is more susceptible to interest rate hikes, and it appears to be correcting. If necessary, they could increase the regulatory costs to banks for mortgages.
There is significant geopolitical risk in the world, and we see a proxy war between the West and Russia. The concern is that people abroad will try to hide their money in safer jurisdictions. Therefore, we could see significant inflows into the United States.
Talking Points From This Episode
How the Fed operates behind the scenes.The various tools the Fed has at its disposal.Why there is huge treasury market risk.Why geopolitical concerns could bring foreign capital into the United States.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:06 - Fed Open Market Desk4:07 - Inflation & Data6:44 - Fed Data & Response13:22 - Fed Tools16:33 - The Balance Sheet20:42 - Treasury Buy-Backs25:06 - Debt Ceiling Thoughts28:33 - Debt Servicing & Deficits34:29 - Fed & Other Countries37:25 - Pivot Possibilities41:36 - Talking Down Markets44:17 - Inflation Targets48:24 - Energy & Resources50:05 - Credit Growth & Stocks53:14 - Treasury Market Risk55:40 - Treasury Auctions1:00:25 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:Website: https://fedguy.comBook: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747/Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Joseph Wang spent five years studying the plumbing of the financial system as a senior trader on the open market's desk. The Desk sits at the center of the dollar system as its ultimate and infinite provider of dollars. It has access to virtually all regulatory and financial data, as well as open lines of communication with all major market participants. It is one of the few places in the world where one can definitively learn how the system works.
Before joining the Desk, Joseph was a credit analyst and in another life he practiced law. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Northwestern University, a J.D. from Columbia Law School, and an M.Sc. in Financial Economics from Oxford University.
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven podcast, to the show. A note of caution, once again, Chris takes the gloves off so some swearing ensues.
Chris discusses the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, and it's CEO, Bankman-Fried. This guy seems like a run-of-the-mill con artist. There were a bunch of young kids playing and losing billions of dollars. Everything points to outright fraud, including past direct statements of the CEO himself. The concern now is how many other operations are about to blow up.
We could be seeing a loss of confidence in the crypto space, as everything in crypto exists in a gray area. It's basically brand new and currently there isn't significant demand for it. Crypto has been a blow-off valve for all the liquidity in the global markets. This blow up portends further problems in the space and some of the contagion will spill over to other markets.
He questions how they can let Tether move forward from here given this collapse. They will be under far more scrutiny, and Tether could be an even bigger problem than what we have seen with FTX.
Chris believes that even if the Fed were to cut rates tomorrow, there would still be a market blow up. The speed at which they have raised rates is breakneck and stunning. There is a lag in the economic plumbing between the rate changes and the impact being felt.
The Fed should have raised rates some time ago, but instead they appear to act cowardly. Real rates have to reach positive territory for the Fed to truly declare victory. Good luck with that.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The consequences and contagion with the FTX debacle.Crypto and Tether is going to receive much more scrutiny.Fed's policies and why a stock market decline is already baked in.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - FTX Crypto Carnage9:03 - Massive Deception13:14 - Bitcoin and Gold19:44 - Fed Pivot & Reality26:58 - 'War' on Inflation30:20 - Statistics & Signs40:07 - Rates & Housing47:50 - Fed & Credit55:50 - C.B. Gold Buying1:01:12 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast.
Today, we are once again joined by Steve St. Angelo and also Nate Fisher. Nate wants to analyze the risks involved in the energy situation of the world. It's important to discuss the situation in bytes larger than 140 characters. The concept of this podcast is to convey awareness and figure out solutions to the potential risk factors. If an energy cliff is coming soon, how can you thoroughly prepare?
Risk analysis usually entails the concepts of accept, avoid, transfer, or mitigate.
Steve discusses his energy return on investment thesis and how modern society compares with past civilizational collapses. We're reaching an energy cliff where declining oil production accelerates. We're just not finding as much economic oil. At some point, we're not going to be able to replace the declines. Oil production and the world population curve are highly correlated.
Nate discusses possible ways we could mitigate the energy cliff for a time.
Nuclear plants are more expensive and take longer to construct, and therefore we are "starting to run out that clock." We need better battery technologies, and hopefully advances in I.T. will help bring those about. We're in a race between a lack of energy and the promise of new technology.
Nate discusses the idea of having physical precious metals as a method of insurance.
Lastly, Steve speaks to the idea of adding complexity to solve difficult problems actually exacerbates the situation. The solution is for things to become more simple and self-sustaining on an individual level.
Talking Points From This Episode
Systemic risks and ways of mitigation.Energy Return on Investment and potential impacts of modern civilization's energy use.ESG, resource efficiency, and energy consumption.Some other promising technologies that could be beneficial.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Energy Risk Discussion5:38 - Energy Cliff - EROI8:58 - Energy System Waste12:40 - Debt vs. Oil & Gas EROI15:40 - Conservation Methods21:15 - Green Solutions?29:38 - Nuclear & Cheap Coal38:33 - Green at Home?44:20 - Moore's Law and I.T.52:10 - Battery Technology55:14 - Electric Mining & Farming1:03:56 - Supply Chains & EROI1:10:54 - Precious Metals1:15:33 - Various Factors1:20:30 - Conclusion
Past Show Link with Steve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUE7u_HICp8
Nate Fisher Guest Links:Website: https://renaissancemen.org/Twitter: https://twitter.com/natefishpa
Nate Fisher is an IT contract project manager living in York, PA. He has an undergrad in Information systems along with a master's degree in cybersecurity and business administration. Nate has many side interests, including investing with precious metals, mining, and rental properties. He is a part-time blogger that writes about PMs, miners, and health and fitness. Nate is a self-described renaissance man, and you can find out more from his website and Twitter.
Steve St. Angelo - Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI "Energy Returned On Invested" stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
You can find many of Steve's articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-Klare-Blick,
Tom welcomes James Meigs to the program. James is senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and Contributor to City Journal. He formerly worked on three magazines as editor, including Popular Mechanics.
James discusses how his views on nuclear energy have changed over his career. Studying our existing grid and the problems around carbon dioxide has changed his views. Good clean energy solutions are few and far between, and nuclear can fill a key role in base energy. Wind and solar have a place, but they are difficult to use as a foundation for the grid. Nuclear provides that steady, reliable power source for months on end. Which is essential for modern society.
James explains the purpose of the Manhattan Institute to find solutions that are compatible with free markets. Maximum individual and business freedom while not relying on heavy-handed government interventions. There are practical solutions that market forces can bring. Governments have bad records at figuring out rapidly evolving technology. We need rapid progress in clear zero carbon energy that works for the consumer.
Europe and Germany in particular have seen themselves as green power pioneers. Germany wanted to ween themselves from coal, gas and oil. However, they weren't able to get away from using coal like they imagined. Likewise, they spent a fortune on electricity before the war, and now we see a huge drag on the economy. We could see major industries shut down this winter and homes that go unheated.
Modern economic activity has largely been decoupled from carbon emissions. However, energy is necessary to run everything, and therefore it's important not to abandon existing technologies.
Grids are less reliable when nuclear power is decommissioned. The truth is that modern reactors don't take that long to decommission. Funds are normally set aside during operations to pay for the decommissioning process. Nuclear is the most regulated energy market in the United States. It's an extremely long process to license and permit these plants.
France has had the most success with reducing carbon output. They became quite concerned during the 70s as to their energy security. So, they invested heavily in Nuclear Power by building a couple of dozen nuclear plants. Today, their grid is run from 70% nuclear sources. Not only that, but they have lower prices than most of the rest of Europe.
James is excited about some of the nuclear technology that is in development. There is a lot of cool research that has been done in nuclear within the United States, but we haven't deployed these ideas commercially. Many of these plants could be much smaller and modular. Instead of powering a major city, we could power individual manufacturing plants or remote sites like in Alaska. These would be built in factories and trucked to their locations. They are inherently safe and would not require constant supervision.
Lastly, he discusses the potential of nuclear fusion and the technologies behind carbon capture and sequestration.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Nuclear Energy2:40 - Manhattan Institute4:42 - Europe & Energy7:23 - Carbon Tax Reality12:47 - New Tech. Costs16:15 - Green Subsidizes21:26 - Reopening Plants28:35 - Carbon-Neutral Energy31:00 - Green & Grid Stability34:33 - Future Nuclear Tech.39:17 - Nuclear Roadblocks42:15 - Fusion in 20 Years?45:30 - Carbon Capture50:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
How views are gradually changing on the benefits of nuclear energy.The purpose behind the Manhattan Institute.The problems with green energy and trying to transition too quickly from carbon-based sources.Why France has benefitted greatly from nuclear and what the future holds in newer technology.
Guest links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jamesbmeigsWebsite: https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/james-b-meigsWebsite: https://www.howdowefixit.me/Twitter: https://twitter.com/fixitshow
James B.
Tom welcomes Vincent Lanci back to the show. Vince questions the speculative nature of the World Gold Council's gold buying report. Ultimately, Central Bank gold buying is likely bullish, but the reports numbers will certainly be revised at some point and should be taken with some caution.
Vince discusses basic supply demand economics and how they apply to the gold market. Some of these Central Bank deals are done gradually, and such selling may not cause large price swings.
When gold moves up less than two percent, it rarely persists. Generally, such moves retrace themselves within a week. These large moves are unusual and indicate that something has shifted. Vince says, "Mr. Slammy has been absent. The slams may not happen to the extent they did in the past. The depths of hits aren't what they used to be. The last week or so haven't seen significant selling in gold."
Vince discusses the seasonality with gold and the reasons why they occur. These seasons are often correlated with investors rebalancing their portfolio at various times of the year. Based on the historic patterns of commodities, Goldman's renewed interest in gold is a bullish sign. They are writing again about gold and discussing a coming supercycle in commodities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - C.B. Gold Buying5:18 - Supply Dynamics8:40 - Sentiment & Criteria16:22 - Japan, Gold, & Bonds25:44 - Recent Gold Behavior32:24 - Buy Season & Big Funds?37:06 - 'Buyish' Market Signals44:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The fundamentals behind gold market buying and supply/demand.Gold's recent moves have been unusual and seem bullish.Seasonality in the metals and markets and why Goldman's outlook is buy-ish.
Guest Links:Special Discount: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/PalisadesTomSpecialWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC, and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC, option market makers. In 2000, he co-founded Whentech with David Wender, where he was the chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface. Between 1987-1993 he gained experience at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff. Mr. Lanci contributes to Zerohedge, BBG, and RTRS. He has paneled at Mondo Visione, NYC Mines & Money conferences, and is a champion of level investor playing fields.
Tom welcomes back Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees back to the show.
Luke discusses how Russia has proven to be far more resilient than the West expected. They are massively miscalculating Russia's true GDP, which can be calculated based on the value of a barrel of oil. We're now seeing the consequences as Europe and the U.K. both have an energy crisis. The U.S. has tried to mitigate the impact by dipping into the Strategic Reserve. He says, "If you want to understand the true value of oil, fill up your car, go for a long drive until you run out, and then push it back to where you started."
We've had the worst year in treasury markets since 1798. Russia was successful in defending their currency since they required 'less friendly' buyers to pay with Rubles. The West wants to cap Russia's energy prices, but that seems quite unrealistic. The U.S. is seeing shortages of distillates and high diesel prices, while inflation remains persistent.
There is a feedback mechanism between energy, inflation, and sovereign debt markets. Energy is required for everything, and cheap energy is necessary to maintain the system at current sovereign debt levels. We are starting to see debt sustainability issues. Energy eventually connects back in a feedback loop, as everything is inter-related. At some point, things break, as we've seen with the U.K. pensions.
Rising dollars create a bad situation for everyone. It weakens domestic corporations and ultimately turns everything into a balance sheet contest. There is an argument that running the dollar up will hurt the U.S. last, but what if the U.S. is wrong this time, and it doesn't hurt Russia, China, and India that much.
Countries seem to be accumulating gold instead of dollars, and a recent buyer of 300 billion worth did not their identity. This is starting to look like a transition away from the dollar and into gold.
OPEC may have been making a strategic move with Saudi Arabia. They realize that if the West can choke out Russia, then they're likely next. Also concerning is that the U.S. has demonstrated its willingness to steal FX reserves of other nations.
Gold is likely to be a politically managed metal until the day it is not.
The Treasury recently stated on Monday that the U.S. Federal deficit is expected to double next year. This throws pressure back on the Fed and certainly means that rates and the dollar will continue rising. It looks like the Fed and Treasury are fighting.
Once the U.S. fiscal situation gets acute enough, you're going to see gold take off. When the Fed finally pivots, it should be good for both energy and metals markets. Currently, energy is looking excellent compared with treasuries. A Fed pivot is likely to happen sooner rather than later, but they have not budged so far. Larry Summers has stated that we are nearing a "doom loop".
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Global Signposts8:32 - Treasuries & Energy12:25 - Yields & a Rising Dollar15:52 - Oil In Other Currencies23:14 - Foreign Reserves & Gold26:40 - Purpose of OPEC Cuts28:52 - C.B. Gold Demand32:43 - Basel & Derivatives35:33 - MOVE Index & The Fed36:52 - Treasury Borrowing 2X41:36 - Energy Markets & Bonds44:14 - Fed Pivot Effects45:32 - Hikes & Sector Risks52:14 - Fed & Inflation Targets53:15 - Canada & China Divestment57:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The West's miscalculation of the true value of energy.Treasury market risks and why the West needs cheap energy.The U.S. Fiscal deficit is set to double next year.Why the metals and energy are both likely to do well when the Fed pivots.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clie...
Tom welcomes a new and yet well-known guest, Grant Williams, to the show. Grant discusses how being flexible in mindset is important as in the world of social media, people can be quite dogmatic. Admitting your mistakes is key, as everyone is just trying to figure out the future.
He is quite cautious about giving actionable advice because people may not understand how he came to his conclusions. Helping people come to their own decisions is better than simply telling people what to do. Jim Cramer is an example of someone who spews nonsense and provides generally bad advice every day.
Everyone and everything today is at risk in these volatile times. People need to be aware. Things are changing and government's may intervene in ways that benefit them at your expense.
There are plenty of pensions around the West that are carefully re-evaluating their risks given what happened in the United Kingdom. Many of these are vulnerable because they have taken on more risks to find returns.
Grant discusses the importance of having a plan for positioning and exiting in markets, and why it's crucial to avoid emotion.
The hubris of Fed officials is remarkable, and the fact they've raised interest rates four times demonstrates just how bad a job they've been doing.
Gold is not completely safe from confiscation, but there are always places in the world where it will be used. Bitcoin is likely to be directly competing with Central Bank Digital Currencies at some point, and that may entail additional risks.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:36 - Transitory Conclusions6:35 - Testing Your Ideas8:20 - Shifting Cycles & Risk14:03 - U.K. Cracks & Confidence19:10 - Dry Powder & Opportunity21:25 - Emotions & Trading26:12 - Confidence in Japan31:28 - Energy Prices & Crisis33:32 - Dollar Divestment38:14 - Existential Lines41:28 - Feds Extreme Hubris43:44 - Japan & Inflation?48:16 - Gold & Hedge Funds52:19 - Fiat Alternatives59:08 - Travel & Spending1:02:05 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.grant-williams.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Grant Williams, much to his dismay, has logged over 35 years in finance. During that time, he’s lived and worked in seven major financial centers from London to Sydney, building the kind of network that many others can only dream about.
He began his career in the Japanese equity market in the mid-1980s, before a three-year posting to Tokyo ensured he had a ringside seat as the twin bubbles in equities and real estate burst simultaneously and spectacularly at the end of 1989. After a short stint back in London, Grant relocated once again, this time to New York, where he spent 7 years. Subsequent postings have taken him to Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, and the Cayman Islands.
Currently, he is a senior advisor to Matterhorn Asset Management AG in Switzerland, and a portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore.
Back in 2014, Grant’s ambition to bring the most intelligent, engaging, and original people in finance to a wider audience led him to co-found Real Vision, an on-demand internet-based financial media platform.
Grant’s twin Real Vision interview series, In Conversation With… and On The Road, raised the bar for financial content – engaging and educating viewers in equal measure and helping them learn the secrets behind a group of extraordinary investors’ success.
Long before Real Vision, however, Grant was guiding people around the fringes of finance with his regular newsletter, "Things That Make You Go Hmmm…", a publication which, from humble beginnings as a daily note to a few friends and colleagues, has grown into one of the most widely read financial publications in the world.
Tom welcomes back Dale Pinkert to the show. Dale is an experienced commodity and FX trader. He is also head of trader development at Trade Gate Hub.
Markets are getting massacred due to the Fed hike. Lately, you can judge how everything else will perform based on dollar strength. Dale questions where the labor force has gone as a result of the great resignation, and if those workers will ever return. We're in a new paradigm but the Fed may be in the Twilight Zone. We're going to need a weaker dollar to see the metals move higher.
Dale believes the British Pound has reached the bottom, but the outlook for the Yen may not be that good. He believes US Bond yields could drop from here. If dollar strength continues, the U.S. may be forced to bail out much of the world's financial systems. If rates stay high, we're going to see solvency issues with corporations and governments.
Dale discusses the food supply problems and why they are likely to persist for some time. The issues include droughts, war, and a lack of fertilizer.
Lastly, he discusses what is needed for the Australian and Canadian dollars to perform better. Australia really needs to see China reopen to the world.
Talking Points From This Episode
The consequences and lagging effects of Fed rate hikes.Outlook for currencies and why the dollar may be topping.Grains and soybeans may be entering a bull market, which is concerning.Targets for precious metals and the outlook for resource backed currencies (CAD & AUD).
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Fed & Flying Skills2:42 - NFP & Employment7:42 - Silver & Charts10:42 - Metals Capitulation?11:45 - Dollar Chart & Bonds13:49 - Japan & Treasuries16:52 - Debt & Damages19:17 - Markets & Elections21:44 - Dollar Monthly23:00 - Risk Management25:26 - Fed "Fixes" & Faith29:16 - Bullish on Grains41:13 - Copper Technicals44:09 - Metal Targets46:20 - Currency Thoughts51:06 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://face-experience.comWebsite: https://tradegatehub.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/ForexStopHunter
Dale is head of trader development at Trade Gate Hub and ALSO Host of Face.
Dale began his career in operations on the CME floor for Dean Witter when they traded currency futures on chalkboards. He became a licensed Series 3 broker in 1976 and went on to own and operate Pinkert Commodities GIB. He became a Member of the CME (IOM) Division for a stint and his forecasts have been aired on many Financial media including CNBC.
Dale has Coached/Mentored retail and prop traders and has gained a solid reputation for his work on the other side of the mic, having interviewed over 700 of the best of the best in trading.
Tom welcomes Francis Hunt, Founder of "The Market Sniper" back to the show.
Francis, discuss how demand for physical metal appears to be increasing significantly in the United Kingdom. A lot of interest is coming from those in the financial industry. Some of those customers have expressed concerns about their employer's stability. Self-directed pensions in the U.K. are also seeing a move away from equities and into custodial backed physical metals.
George Soros recently wrote an open letter to the latest U.K. Prime Minister suggesting the idea of perpetual bonds. These are open-ended bonds that never get repaid. This is like having a mortgage that never ends, where all you do is service the debt forever. Soros's solution is just more debt on top of debt with more flexible terms.
He explains the concept of hyperstagflation and how it applies during economic extremes. We're in the reverse Goldilocks economy. Francis believes growth is going to capped while inflation persists. This is the worst combination for the retail market, but is great for billionaires who can borrow large sums from banks. This is an inherent bias in the financial system.
He believes we need a truer price index for physical metals where the true cost to the average purchaser is reflected.
Maintaining rates at current levels will lead to a harsh reality and probably a vicious depression. What do you do when everyone is out of work and getting stimulus checks? At that point, we're basically in communism with a Draconian techno control system.
Silver is starting to show its strength relative to gold. Platinum is at historic levels relative to palladium, and Russia is a major producer.
Lastly, Francis explains how cryptos are high-beta trades and why stablecoins might become important for transactions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - U.K. Physical Demand10:05 - Perpetual Bonds & Inflation16:20 - Deflation & Contraction22:08 - Physical Premiums & Spreads29:16 - Energy, Oil, & Miners32:00 - Interest Rates & Lag37:10 - Gold Ratio Charts46:00 - Gold Downside?50:00 - Gold Futures Charts59:53 - Cryptos & Alt. Fiat1:07:30 - Central Bank Actions1:11:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Physical demand in the U.K. showing strength from financial professionals.New and improved debt in the form of perpetual bonds.Outlook for growth and why inflation is likely to persist.Silver is showing strength and platinum looks excellent compared with palladium.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis.
Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from com...
Tom welcomes back Larry McDonald to the show. Larry is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert.
Larry discusses the reach of his recent book, "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers."
Larry is concerned about the impacts of rate hikes in Japan and around the world. Central banks are very nervous because they can't assess the damage inflicted by their policies for many months.
The Fed doesn't want to admit that financial conditions can overpower them. We're going to see a 500 billion dollar swing in debt servicing. They are trying to scare investors with rhetoric, but the math is stacked against the Fed.
The yield curve is showing that a recession is certain. They are trying to regulate the energy markets by drawing from the strategic reserves. However, prices are still continuing to rise.
Japan is entering a doom loop between yield differentials and the value of the Yen. This could be a very dangerous scenario, and the only way out is to get help from the Fed. There are of globally players very concerned about the speed of Yen weakening.
When markets see the end of a rate hike cycle, we see gold buyers do very well. Gold suffers at the beginning of these cycles.
There is a crisis in metals, and we're going to be needing a lot more of them to roll out green energy. Silver is starting to now outperform gold, which likely means speculative money will come into the space.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:02 - Japan & Rate Effects6:10 - Lagging Impacts9:12 - Commercial Banks11:20 - Yield Curves12:33 - Midterms & Pivots16:45 - Bank Of Japan & Risk19:05 - Treasury Risks & Gold25:57 - Fed & Miners27:16 - Labor & Inflation29:42 - Refilling the SPR?32:40 - Resource Opportunity33:56 - Rhetoric Reversal?37:57 - Prospects For Silver41:46 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Serious concerns with Japan's financial system.Energy and how will the strategic petroleum reserves be replenished.The outlook for gold and silver when the Fed finally pivots.
Guest Links:Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/convertbondAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/2p93wy9x
Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.
Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.
In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington, D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 to 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Société Générale.
In 2010, he founded an investment research firm which publishes the Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.
In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.
Before working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities information with news, valuation, terms and analysis tools for convertible bonds, convertible preferred stocks, and other convertible securities.
Tom welcomes back Larry McDonald to the show. Larry is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert.
Larry discusses the reach of his recent book, "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers."
Larry is concerned about the impacts of rate hikes in Japan and around the world. Central banks are very nervous because they can't assess the damage inflicted by their policies for many months.
The Fed doesn't want to admit that financial conditions can overpower them. We're going to see a 500 billion dollar swing in debt servicing. They are trying to scare investors with rhetoric, but the math is stacked against the Fed.
The yield curve is showing that a recession is certain. They are trying to regulate the energy markets by drawing from the strategic reserves. However, prices are still continuing to rise.
Japan is entering a doom loop between yield differentials and the value of the Yen. This could be a very dangerous scenario, and the only way out is to get help from the Fed. There are of globally players very concerned about the speed of Yen weakening.
When markets see the end of a rate hike cycle, we see gold buyers do very well. Gold suffers at the beginning of these cycles.
There is a crisis in metals, and we're going to be needing a lot more of them to roll out green energy. Silver is starting to now outperform gold, which likely means speculative money will come into the space.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:02 - Japan & Rate Effects6:10 - Lagging Impacts9:12 - Commercial Banks11:20 - Yield Curves12:33 - Midterms & Pivots16:45 - Bank Of Japan & Risk19:05 - Treasury Risks & Gold25:57 - Fed & Miners27:16 - Labor & Inflation29:42 - Refilling the SPR?32:40 - Resource Opportunity33:56 - Rhetoric Reversal?37:57 - Prospects For Silver41:46 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Serious concerns with Japan's financial system.Energy and how will the strategic petroleum reserves be replenished.The outlook for gold and silver when the Fed finally pivots.
Guest Links:Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/convertbondAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/2p93wy9x
Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.
Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.
In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington, D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and strategists. From 2011 to 2016, he was Managing Director and Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at Société Générale.
In 2010, he founded an investment research firm which publishes the Bear Traps Report, focused on Political and Systemic Risk with actionable trade ideas. Larry makes weekly appearances on CNBC as a contributor focused on political and economic risk and opportunities.
In late 2006, as Vice President at Lehman Brothers, he led his team into betting against the subprime mortgage market, profiting the firm over $2 billion before its demise. In 2009, he wrote the international bestseller A Colossal Failure of Common Sense, The Inside Story of The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - translated into 12 languages, selling over 400,000 copies.
Before working at Lehman, he was the co-founder of Convertbond.com, a website that provided convertible securities information with news, valuation, terms and analysis tools for convertible bonds, convertible preferred stocks, and other convertible securities.
Tom welcomes back, Patrick Yip, to the show. Patrick is the director of business development at APMEX, the largest precious metals' dealer in the United States.
APMEX gets plenty of gold buyers, and that's probably due to APMEX's size and reputation. Today, they are seeing more silver buyers. Customers may be feeling that silver is undervalued at current levels.
Premiums remain high and are likely to stay high for a while. Supplies from the U.S. mint are limited, as blanks are difficult to obtain for production. APMEX is paying high premiums for some Silver Eagles, which they have to pass on to the customer. They are having to source from wherever they can get supply. 1000 oz delivery bars are also seeing higher premiums and delivery costs have risen.
Patrick explains why more customers are now buying and how changes in the spot price tend to attract buyers. Summer months tend to be slower for precious metals and also periods where the price is consolidating.
He discusses the differences between ETFs like GLD and SLV. These services don't give you direct ownership of the actual metal, and they normally settle in cash. Also, you don't know if ETFs actually have the metals in a vault as there are third parties involved. ETFs like the Sprott PSLV are much better because they are directly backed and audited.
APMEX wanted to make their own products, and the best way they found was to create their own mint. The 9Fine Mint allows them to make their own high-quality products and compete on price. Some of the products have their own collector value and can trade at a premium.
Patrick recommends avoiding high premiums on products. Look for items with low premiums like bars or use their OneGold service and take delivery later when premiums are lower. Dollar cost averaging is also a good way to begin building a physical metal portfolio.
Talking Points From This Episode
APMEX's customer survey results.Premiums and higher costs due to shortages of blanks.The caveats of using some ETFs.General advice for new investors in the metals space.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Demographics Survey2:00 - Gold & Silver Demand3:24 - Silver Supply8:10 - Buyers Vs. Sellers9:13 - Volatility & Spot Moves11:05 - Portfolio Weightings12:46 - Gold & Inflation13:47 - Wholesale Gold17:02 - Silver & Premiums19:07 - Metal ETF Concerns23:36 - How APMEX Hedges28:13 - The 9Fine Mint29:48 - New Products32:04 - New Investor Advice33:23 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://apmex.comOneGold: https://onegold.comEmail: patrick.yip@apmex.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/Apmex
Patrick Yip serves as the Director of Business Development at APMEX, and currently manages the fast-growing digital precious metal platform, OneGold.com, which has processed over $650MM in transactions during its first three years in business. Mr. Yip joined APMEX in 2011 and has held roles in Merchandising, Sales, Project Management and Business Development. He played a key role in the company’s 250%+ growth on marketplaces such as eBay, Amazon and Walmart. Before APMEX, Patrick has held roles at asset management companies, and at Fortune 500s, such as Disney and Twentieth Century Fox.
Tom welcomes back a past guest of the show, Warren Irwin. Warren discusses the valuable lessons from the BRE-X story. He had just graduated from university when the excitement around BRE-X was happening, and it was the poster child at the time being heavily promoted. After investing in the project, it grew significantly, and he decided to go and see it in person.
Once he returned to Canada, he started to question the narrative around BRE-X. Numerous people were fooled, including some of the geologists that had worked on the project. He was building a house, and fortunately sold half of his shares near the top of the market. Warren had concerns and immediately sold the other half when the CEO 'fell' out of a helicopter. He shared his concerns, but many were hostile towards him and others stayed in denial. He did manage to talk most friends who invested into selling out of the stock.
The mining industry, today, is much better easier to research than in the past. Bulls want to believe, but greed can easily get out of control. Whenever you feel brilliant and superb about your investments, start selling. The markets can be very treacherous, and you have to exercise caution.
His approach is to find good companies with new resource discoveries. That is what has brought him profits and money is rarely made by just speculating on the price of gold.
People are starting to wake up to the realities of green energy and embrace nuclear. Some additional uranium production is beginning to come online and NexGen and KazAtomProm have quite low costs of production. Every uranium project is quite viable by $75 a pound.
He believes modularity will be key to future acceptance of nuclear power. Plants need to be standardized and simplified to an extent to reduce costs by economics of scale. We all need cheap, clean power that is also safe.
He believes ESG is one of the nuttiest things to ever happen to the mining industry. There is a lot of fantasy as to how environmental ideas should be implemented. We need resources to build out the electrification of the world, but everything ;needs' to be green already. We're seeing similar things with the oil business, as we demand the Saudi's keep up production while we cut our own. The world becomes completely crazy when politicians and do-gooders become part of the decision-making process. The future will be fascinating, but don't sell your gas or diesel powered vehicle just yet.
Talking Points From This Episode
Lessons and observations from the BRE-X scandal.Why you should be concerned if you're feeling good about your investments.Outlook for uranium and why high prices may not be sustainable.ESG is a fantasy run by politicians and do-gooders.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - BRE-X Red Flags12:00 - Lessons Learned16:24 - Uranium Pros/Cons23:23 - Supply Lag Time27:45 - Picking Equities29:24 - Anti-Nuclear Drivers31:18 - Reactor Costs35:18 - Gold Equities & Price40:24 - Fed Pivot & Resources44:34 - Battery Metals48:40 - Profit Taking?51:37 - Why ESG is Nuts59:44 - Greenification Issues1:06:52 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.rosseau.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/bigdude6669
Warren Irwin is President and Chief Investment Officer of Rosseau Asset Management Limited.
Warren founded Rosseau in 1998, after several successful years of proprietary investing at Deutsche Bank Canada. The firm’s flagship Rosseau Limited Partnership was established on December 31, 1998, and has earned a reputation as a top-performing hedge fund.
Mr. Irwin earned a Bachelor of Mathematics degree from the University of Waterloo in 1987. Upon graduation, he worked as a bond analyst for Scotia Capital Markets. At Scotia, Mr. Irwin developed the Universe Bond Index, the Canadian bond market benchmark, as well as Canada’s first bond index fund shortly thereafter.
In the fall of 1989, Mr. Irwin entered the University of Western Ontario’s business school and graduated with...
In this Spaces, we discuss the growing tightness in the metals markets and how the problems with the debt system are starting to really reveal themselves. Premiums are getting out of hand and refiners are pulling metals off the exchanges. In the past, they would have been able to source metals elsewhere. Physical metal is in true demand with inflation not coming under control. David discusses the distortions in metals which are caused by derivative products. Commercial bars are now getting serious premiums. People are over paying for both metals and delivery. David has never seen the metals market so distorted as they are currently.
Bob Coleman – Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
David Morgan - The Morgan ReportWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru
Steve St. Angelo – Independent Researcher and Publisher of the SRSrocco ReportWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report. Steve discusses the causes of lack of investment in the energy sector. It's getting increasingly difficult to find oil, especially if we're not looking. It's costing a hundred billion dollars to find a billion barrels of oil. We've spent five trillion in the past decade to find 54 billion barrels of oil. During that time, the world consumed 300 billion barrels. We're consuming six times the amount we are finding. It's becoming impossible to keep up with the decline of at least ten percent annually.
Editor's Note: The term "Red Queen Syndrome" is derived from Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking Glass, where the Red Queen informs Alice that “here, you see, it takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place.”
The EIA in the United States appears to be overstating the oil reserves. There are fewer well completions this year than last. Texas is declining, and it's a major part of the Permian. Shale is going to start rolling over next year, and we will see a fifty to seventy percent decline by 2030.
Oil sands are powered by natural gas usage. It's essentially a conversion process of what fossil fuel to another. This is what makes extracting Venezuelan oil difficult.
Steve explains the problem of Energy Return on Investment. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil products, but we are currently using up the strategic reserve. We are exporting natural gas, coal, and some oil products. We're going to have serious problems quite soon, as we will become a net importer once again.
The high dollar and high oil price is destroying Third World countries. This will persist and gradually move to impacting bigger countries.
Europe has built up their natural gas inventories to around ninety percent or higher. However, we don't know how severe the winter will be. China has been reselling gas from Russia to Europe. The Europeans, however, have paid a high price for it, about four or five times higher in price than the five-year average. By the end of November, we need to pay close attention to European inventories. Europe will be in serious trouble in the coming years.
The Fed really wants to raise interest rates to kill demand and lower prices. When the November elections are done, they will stop selling oil from the SDR. With OPEC cutting supply, we could see a slingshot effect on price.
Steve believes we are at the beginning of something big in the precious metals markets. Those with metals will fare much better because it represents energy, and he cautions that you don't want to be holding debt. A precious metals market unlike the world has seen before is coming. Focus on the energy because it will be the leading factor for the coming geopolitical and economic problems.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Capital Allocation5:09 - Red Queen Syndrome9:20 - Middle East & Oil Decline11:52 - EIA - Hide the Decline14:27 - Understanding EROI18:02 - U.S. Energy Exports20:04 - Dollar Endgame24:35 - The Winter Ahead30:32 - Energy & Foreign Impacts32:35 - Precious Metals & Energy39:04 - Institutions & Metals44:10 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on, in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, most of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.
Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles on some of the top precious metals and financial websites.
Tom Welcomes back Dr. Stephen Leeb. He is a financial author, wealth manager, and newsletter publisher.
Stephen notes that BRICS+ move has been quite rapid away from Western markets. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was formed initially between China and Russia. Its goals were security and economic growth. In 1996, India and Pakistan joined. They have a lot of cultural and political differences between them. They were seeking ways to harmonize economic growth while maintaining sovereignty of the nations involved. Likewise, they met recently with other nations like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Culturally they are rivals, but they are coming together. Many other countries are also now wanting to join one or both organizations.
The World Gold Council wants to create a worldwide blockchain to bring discipline to the way countries use money. Stephen discusses why the gold standard brought stability to the economic system.
Stephen believes that NATO is breaking as countries like Turkey, allies with Russia on gas distribution. Italy intends to exit the European Union and the Euro. Europe as a bloc is beginning to disintegrate. It seems clear that the attack on Nordstream pipeline was done by U.S. interests. Sanctions against Russia and China are damaging the technological growth of the West. He says, "We're at a critical point in human civilization."
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - BRICS+ Developments12:35 - World Gold Council18:04 - Democracy & Problems22:40 - Evaluating Policies26:32 - Gold & Blockchain?34:00 - Italy & Consequences40:10 - Nordstream & U.S. Policy50:33 - Growth Vs. Sanctions1:03:20 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The Eastern approach to economic cooperation among diverse nations.The World Gold Council's desire to build a gold backed blockchain.Consequences of sanctions and policies of the western nations.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeebPhdWebsite: https://www.leeb.net/Website: https://www.stephenleeb.com/Book/Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/y4wphb87
Dr. Stephen Leeb is a recognized authority on the stock market, macroeconomic trends, and commodities, especially oil and precious metals. As Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management, Dr. Leeb combines his knowledge of macroeconomic trends and current market conditions with detailed information about specific companies he follows to guide the Committee's investment decisions.
Stephen Leeb is a financial author, wealth manager, and publisher of a family of investment newsletters. He has been a recurring guest on CNN, Fox News, NPR, Bloomberg, and many others through the years. Leeb was also said to be one of the country's foremost financial experts, with Charlie Gasparino in 2016 recommending Leeb as a good candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman.
Leeb earned a B.S. in Economics from the Wharton School of Business. He also earned a Master's in Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Illinois. He authored research papers on psychology and statistics in the peer-reviewed journal Psychological Reports. Stephen Leeb is married and lives in New York City, New York.
Leeb has written nine books on macroeconomic trends, finance, and investment, including the New York Times Best Sellers. Stephen's recent book Red Alert was awarded the 2012 Axiom Business Book Awards silver medal in the International Business/Globalization category.
Tom welcomes Mark P. Mills to the show. Mark is a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and a Faculty Fellow at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science at Northwestern University.
Mark discusses the true costs of the green energy revolution. Most of the minerals and refining of ores used to make batteries are mined outside the United States and Canada. China represents 2/3rds of the market share of critical materials needed to make batteries and photovoltaic cells. The bottom line is that 500,000 pounds of rock is mined to produce an E.V. car battery. The total emissions involved is at least 15 tons of CO2. An efficient internal combustion vehicle will emit a similar amount of carbon over its lifetime. However, this doesn't account for the energy used to charge the battery of an electric vehicle.
Mark notes that ore grades have been declining on average for centuries. More ore has to be processed for a given quantity of metals produced. Most of the green energy forecasts are not realistic, and we will need incredible amounts of copper to achieve these lofty targets. The world will need 200%-300% more copper than we have been producing annually for at least a couple of decades. We will need even more copper to improve the grid. We need to ask more questions, as there is no evidence that sufficient resource capacity will be coming online to meet these goals.
Governments do not appear to notice that they aren't getting their subsidy bang for the buck. We've spent two decades transitioning from hydrocarbons and already spent five trillion dollars. That number is likely higher in terms of additional burdens on the economy. During these two decades, we've managed to drop the energy requirements from hydrocarbons by two percent. However, over this same period we've increased our total energy usage from hydrocarbons on the order of six Saudi Arabia's.
Mark explains the difficulty in recycling battery materials and why it may remain cost prohibitive.
Deindustrialzation in Europe and energy scarcity has shutdown two thirds of all fertilizer production, along with half of the metal refining industry. Should prices continue to escalate, most industry in the U.K. will shut down. Many industries are difficult to restart because they are designed to operate continuously. A lot of industry may decide to re-open in another, safer country.
Lastly, he discusses the energy density and ability to surge hydrocarbon solutions in contrast to other much more expensive and impractical methods.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - EVs Export Emissions9:05 - Insane Copper Demands17:33 - Energy Costs & Subsidies22:23 - Green Technology Needs25:30 - Economics of Recycling32:10 - Good Green Applications37:47 - Rare Earth Sources42:22 - Deindustrialization46:26 - Stabilizing Energy49:29 - Energy Storage & Surges51:48 - Political Realities58:25 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The true costs of the electric vehicle revolution.Why the world will need 500 percent more copper.What is needed to stabilize world energy.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MarkPMillsWebsite: https://www.tech-pundit.com/Book: https://tinyurl.com/2s3js4he
Mark P. Mills is a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and a Faculty Fellow at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science at Northwestern University. He is a co-founder and strategic partner in Montrose Lane, a software-centric energy-tech venture fund. He was formerly the co-founder and chief tech strategist for Digital Power Capital, a boutique venture fund, where co-founded and served as Chairman and CTO of ICx Technologies helping take it public in a 2007 IPO (later purchased by FLIR), and in addition served on numerous Boards, including as Chairman (and an interim CEO) of a lithium battery start-up. And for seven years prior to an acquisition in 2008 by HP, he was the independent Director on the Board of EYP Mission-Critic...
Tom welcomes Brett Heath, President, and CEO of Metalla Royalty & Streaming, back to the show. Brett is excited about the resource space, as very little capital has moved into gold equities during the past two years. Valuations are near historic lows, which makes the space an excellent opportunity. Seasonally, December through February are strong months for gold.
The large players need to notice gold moving higher to bring larger capital flows. It's steadily setting up for such a move in the next year or so. There is an incredible amount of upside in the metals.
We will probably see gold move with the dollar. Gold has been doing quite well against most currencies. It will move when we see a sovereign debt crisis.
Confidence will be lost during the energy crisis this winter. There are countless inflows into the U.S. dollar due to its status. Eventually, capital will flow back into gold and resource equities.
He discusses some of the criticisms against royalty and streaming products and the differences.
We're seeing a lot of M&A activity around quality projects. Jurisdiction used to be a little bit less important, but today it has become a major concern. Ease of permitting is essential in countries with good rule of law. You want to invest where past companies have had good success.
The next mining cycle will be one for the record books.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - The Resource Space2:43 - Tax Loss Selling4:16 - Attracting New Capital?9:00 - Crypto & Crisis10:18 - Confidence & Pensions13:26 - Company Input Costs14:34 - Royalty Criticisms15:50 - Streaming Vs. Royalty21:02 - M&A Activity Trends22:20 - Jurisdiction Thoughts25:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Outlook for the resource space and why investors should be excited.What catalysts may be needed for gold to make its move.Differences between royalty and streaming products and investing tips for the resource space.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.metallaroyalty.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/metalla-royalty-and-streaming-ltd.Twitter: https://twitter.com/metallaroyalty
Mr. Heath is President and CEO and Director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming. Mr. Heath has a comprehensive career in the structured finance, corporate finance, and investment management industry. He was previously the Chairman and CEO of High Stream Corporation before Metalla acquired it in August 2016. High Stream was a specialty streaming and royalty consulting company where he worked with First Mining Finance, (FF:CVE) and several other private equity funds, advising and brokering metal streaming transactions. Before that, he was the President of a private streaming company where he deployed $11 million in 4 producing streaming transactions in 3 separate jurisdictions. Before that, he was a founding principal of KSIR Capital Management, a hedge fund focused on small and micro-cap mining companies. He also advised several mining companies with KSIR Capital, the corporate finance division of KSIR.
Tom welcomes Robert Moriarty back to the program to discuss the interesting times happening around the world. He says, "I'm an equal opportunity anarchist, I despise all governments equally. They're all stupid and are doing these incredibly short-sighted things."
We're seeing CPI numbers blowing out across Europe. This is incipient hyperinflation. Western policies are self-destructive and all of these governments are doing the wrong things repeatedly. The Fed is cornered between hyperinflation and destroying the economy. It's like choosing between dying from a heart attack or lung cancer. The entire world is run my mental midgets and the west is committing suicide by sanctions.
Governments attract sociopaths who desire power, and they focus on short-term solutions that don't work. You don't want to mess with the energy supply demand signals by bailing out your citizens. This is a terrible idea, just like the 'inflation reduction act'. There are no positive benefits to most policies of government today.
The relationship between the U.S.A. and the Europeans is going to change dramatically when they wake up to reality this winter.
Politicians and bureaucrats don't understand the law of unintended consequences. Those in charge rarely recognize the potential problems their policies will create. The same problems Europe is facing are going to happen in the United States. Every pension in the world is bankrupt. Things are going to become serious very soon.
Bob explains how a debt jubilee is supposed to function in an economic system.
We're already seeing the catastrophic impact of a high dollar. A lot of debt is based in the dollar, and most don't understand the dollar index. It's a basket of currencies, and it reflects the decline in value of other currencies. There is no fixing the bond crisis that's coming other than to write off the debt. The solution is to go back to gold, but no one will want to do it until they have no other choice.
Bob believes that Russia and the BRICS nations will lead the world in a move to a gold system.
In the modern system, every financial market is manipulated, but the suppression only works for a while.
Resource stocks are as cheap as they have ever been.
Lastly, he discusses his 'latest' book, "No Guts No Glory" which chronicles his 'Glory Days of International Aircraft Deliveries.'
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Interesting Times2:38 - Western Policies6:02 - Gov't Incentives12:42 - Unintended Consequences17:20 - Confidence & Currency24:33 - Voluntary Collapse26:30 - Dollar Strength28:27 - BRICS & Russia29:50 - Metals Manipulation?35:35 - Mining Equities42:25 - Juniors Vs. Physical47:16 - Publishing His Book52:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why government and their policies are often short-sighted and frankly stupid.Fed is caught between choosing hyperinflation or economic collapse.Energy problems in Europe this winter will create tension between western nations.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Tom welcomes back a man who should need no introduction, Doug Casey. Doug is a libertarian philosopher, speculator, and author.
Doug believes mankind remains on the ascent, although there will be bumps along the way. He is critical of metrics like GDP, which includes non-productive and even counter-productive parts of society like government. For example, the new 87,000 IRS agents will be included in the GDP. Government has gone from providing a few services to the public to now owning or controlling all aspects of the economy.
Those controlling the state have very similar belief structures, and they are spreading across social media.
The new IRS agents aren't likely to be going after the wealthy. It's an attack on the middle class, which is what built western civilization. We're looking at collapse and revolution, which often makes things much worse for some time. You can always get worse leadership.
The Fed believes it can fine tune the economy but the printing of money is out of control. It's all corruption, like the 'inflation reduction act' spending over 400 billion dollars. It's dangerous and criminal and turning the U.S. into a police state. Canada is no better.
The green energy movement is harming the economy and industry. It doesn't work as the mainstay of energy production and is a complete misallocation of capital. The result will be a major lowering of living standards. They should have been taking advantage of small nuclear plants, and we would be far better off. It's the safest and cleanest form of power generation.
Those in government are not the best and brightest and generally, they prefer to manipulate people.
All the world's currencies are fiat paper; based on nothing. This has created numerous economic distortions that are causing bankruptcy across pensions funds and banks. There is a complete lack of critical thinking, and this begins in grade school. You should have no faith in the average voter.
It will be interesting to see who is blamed for Europe's energy woes this winter. We may have to take two steps backwards before mankind can move ahead one again. Hopefully, these idiots in charge don't cause World War III.
Talking Points From This Episode
Why government is an unproductive element of society and should not be included in GDP metrics.Printing and spending more money to reduce inflation.Problems with the green energy movement, Europe, and why we should take advantage of nuclear.The importance of developing communities with like-minded people.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:30 - Terms & GDP4:45 - Free Market & Control7:20 - Federal Gov't Desperate10:12 - Government 'Metrics'14:24 - Green Energy18:35 - Incentives & Interests21:24 - U.K. Crisis25:25 - Europe, Ukraine, & Energy27:35 - Reality & Propaganda29:30 - Find Like-Minded People32:06 - Dollar Risk & Equities35:14 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQWebsite: https://internationalman.com/Amazon Books: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhc
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on "rational speculation," especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug's most recent book, "Assassin," can be found on Amazon.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you're most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey's Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.
In the first half of this space, Bob explains the risks with ETF's and ETN's compared with physical ownership. Happy discusses how PSLV's growth has resulted in some additional dilution costs for early investors. In the second half, Steve explains how input costs are rising for miners and many countries have had shortfalls this year with their production. We're seeing supply and inventory declines, which Steve believes is largely tied to the energy cliff. Energy is having an adverse effect on the debt-based system. Patrick Karim discusses the equity market to gold ratios and why he believes larger institutions will be forced to look elsewhere to preserve value. Patrick explains why we're on the edge of a breakout in gold. Lastly, we take several listener questions.
Bob Coleman - Idaho Armored VaultTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Steve St. Angelo - Independent Researcher and Publisher of the SRSrocco ReportWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Patrick Karim - Proprietary Capital Manager and Chart TraderTwitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Website: https://northstarbadcharts.com
Happy HawaiianTwitter: https://twitter.com/ThHappyHawaiian
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders.
Palisade Radio Links:► Website & Newsletter: https://palisadesradio.ca► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
David explains why sentiment is a fantastic contrarian indicator for the metals sector. Currently, people are giving up on the sector. It's good to use multiple tools when evaluating any market. He watches the dollar and real yields closely along with classical technicals. When all your tools indicate the same thing, you can have high confidence in market direction. Banks are long silver and the technicals are lining up. He is just waiting for confirmation. The one key thing that remains is when will the Fed pivot.
Investing is about finding a methodology that works for you; particularly one that is focused on data. Having multiple signals reduces the emotion in trading and gives you caution until the time is right. In simple terms, markets take advantage of human psychology. Investors often fail to take profits, if you have massive gains take half out. He says, "Emotion is the death of wealth." History will help you to eliminate emotion, but develop a process.
A sharp decline in inflation prints may provide the Fed with an excuse to pause or pivot. That seems to be coming due to the build up in supply chain inventories. The warehouses are full and demand is dropping. Many people are tapped out on their savings. The strength of the dollar also lowers import costs of everything. Commodities are all dropping over the past year, most notably lumber and the housing markets. Any sign of dovishness by the Fed will result in the dollar coming down and everything else taking off.
The other way this could end is that something critical breaks. Take your pick, right now, everything is unstable and stressed. The Fed either pivots or there will be a systemic collapse. Who is going to buy the debt? The only game left is the Fed. We could see a domino effect around the world as banks or pensions fail. There is 2.3 trillion in derivatives and all the banks are interconnected. We're starting to see a repeat of credit default swap risk like we had back in 2008. The Fed cares about what happens elsewhere to the extent that it impacts the United States.
The stock market is now the economy. They are extremely connected. Should we get a flash crash in markets, the Fed will have to intervene.
We're going to have major global events play out soon as something or perhaps many things break.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Sentiment & Metals8:34 - Managing Emotions17:58 - Fundamentals & Inflation18:44 - Fed Pivot & Global Risk32:10 - A Repeat of 2008?34:57 - Fed & Foreign Problems38:53 - Equity Markets43:20 - Other Risks49:36 - Smart Money?53:45 - Dedollarization57:48 - Metal Inventories1:00:37 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writersSilver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com
Talking Points From This Episode
The importance of a trading strategy in reducing emotion in trades.Several possible reasons or sudden events that could cause the Fed to pivot.Why a large drop in equities could also cause Fed intervention.
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23.
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show.
Palisade Radio Links:► Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-1586024► Odysee: https://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Tavi believes we are witnessing an unprecedented economic environment. One with massive withdrawal of liquidity from central banks and developed economies. Interest rates and bonds are collapsing across the entire curve. The dollar's move up has also been relentless. What is occurring is unsustainable. Tavi discusses how the world's economies have fallen into three different categories.
Labor markets are likely the next sector to be impacted, and it will be more severe than the Fed expects. During the 1970s, after two years of high inflation, the labor market was hit hard. We may be seeing the beginning of this with jobless claims and layoffs. Savings rates are at historical lows, while mortgage costs are rising. Things are likely to remain in a fragile state indefinitely.
Tavi believes a blow off in corporate debt will be necessary to see a policy change by the Fed. Credit spreads are still sub two percent. We have yet to see the risk of default be priced in the market. Many tech equities are near March 2020 lows, and there are likely to still be some big flushes in the market. There is quite a bit of opportunity in resources given what is happening now.
There is a lot of going against the oil markets today, and the economy is now in contraction. Prices are reflecting tightness in the available supply. The energy sector has some good values and investors should consider holding a basket of commodities. Value investors should also be looking for sectors that have a lot of negative sentiment.
We've seen a secular decline in geosciences enrollment across the globe. This will affect natural resource companies.
Gold continues to hold up quite well when compared with most sectors. We're entering a different regime that favors tangible assets. Numerous correlations that used to be meaningful no longer work. Developing countries like Brazil are performing better than the West. Commodity led economies will be key in coming years as the balance of global power change.
Tavi cautions that a total breakdown in markets is coming and that impact everything. Look for value and shift your portfolio as necessary. The buy the dip mentality which has worked in the past is probably a bad plan. Be careful with technical oversold indicators, as the fundamentals indicate a trend lower. Macro factors will likely be more important in the next phase of the global economy.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - The Macro Picture5:18 - U.S. Job Numbers9:08 - Corporate Earnings13:18 - Recession & Deficits17:46 - Energy Thoughts22:00 - Basket of Commodities26:09 - Energy & Metals Cycles29:30 - Producer Margins37:32 - Correlations Breaking41:36 - Silver & Price Spike45:27 - Crescat Funds49:17 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:► Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCosta► Twitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_Capital► Website https://crescat.net► Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/
Talking Points From This Episode:► The global macro picture and why volatility will persist.► Energy markets outlook and the importance of holding a basket of commodities.► Patterns are shifting and many correlations are no longer useful.► Protecting and building wealth in this environment.
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products a...
Tom welcomes back Ronald from Incrementum AG. Ronald brings us an update on the gold markets and his thoughts on the overall global economy.
Ronald believes that recession concerns will be the focus in the United States instead of inflation. This may provide the Fed some leeway as the public will be distracted by the economy. Europe will be more concerned with sticky inflation issues as energy problems continue. Europe is definitely in a recession, and it's quite likely the United States is now as well.
The Fed's decision to raise rates aggressively will give them some wiggle room. Europe has only seen minor rate hikes in the Eurozone, which may be problematic for them.
Mr. Putin is given the blame for high-energy prices, but the real cause is a lack of prudent investment in resources. Many are realizing that commodities are a necessity. The West has overestimated our bargaining power in the resources. There are very strong structural drivers for a commodity bull market.
We're seeing problems with credit default swaps and expectations for interest rates hike continue into next year. Market sensitivity to rising interest rates is increasing, influencing the economy and spending behavior. Sixty trillion globally since January has been wiped off the books. This is massive wealth destruction, and the gold market is indicating we may have seen peak hawkishness.
The impact of the Fed hikes are just now starting to be felt. It's like drinking 'tequila shots' as there is a time delay to the effects. The real tightening only started recently. We're seeing enormous strength in the dollar, which is acting as a wrecking ball. The problems will manifest over the coming months, and by then it may be too late to pivot.
Eurozone's countries will subsidize energy this winter. This is the road to serfdom, and arguably the E.U. is no longer a market-based economy.
Gold is doing its job by performing well against nearly all currencies. When dollar strength wanes, gold will once again outperform. Should the dollar rise further, we will see serious issues globally. In the long term, the currency to be in is gold.
Sentiment in the junior metals space has been hit hard, but things are shifting. Most large cap miners and streaming companies are in good positions. The large players have excellent balance sheets and acquisitions will resume at some point. There are some great values in the resource market. The biggest problems are in the development space, where costs have increased and the appetite for risk has waned. New money is needed in the space, but it will take time for retail and institutions to enter the space.
He discusses some of the models they use and how keeping them fairly simple may be key.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Why inflation concerns in the U.S. will switch to recession fears.The West is facing the consequences of failing to capitalize resources and energy markets.Fed's aggressive policy actions are only starting to be felt.Overview of the mining sector and why new money is needed.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - Inflation Outlook5:20 - Resource Investment8:00 - Fed Policy & Intervention11:28 - Sixty Trillion Wiped13:14 - Rates & Time Lag20:40 - Gold Vs. Currencies23:44 - Miners & Capital Flows30:42 - Price Distribution Model35:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=enTwitter: https://twitter.com/RonStoeferleTwitter: https://twitter.com/IGWTreportWebsite: https://www.incrementum.li/en
IGWT Report Links:Full Report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/19434/?lang=enCompact Report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/19431/?lang=enFree Subscribe: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en#igwt-formularMonthly Gold Compass: https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/23370/Report Overview Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Liyvl_J9U
Ronald-Peter Stöeferle is a Chartered Market Technician and a Certified Financial Techni...
Tom welcomes a new guest, Michael Moor, to the show. Michael is an analyst with a fifteen-year career on the floor of the NYMEX. He now provides industry-leading analysis and directional calls in the Gold and Energy Markets.
He explains the importance of using technical trading and why it normally leads fundamentals.
Michael explains what led him to make the call for low oil prices back in 2020. Heating oil and gasoline lead crude oil about eighty percent of the time, which can be highly advantageous in trading.
He explains some of his analysis for gold and how time frames influence his calls. Various formations are usually a gradual progression over different time frames that eventually result in a move.
He feels the down move in the S&P this year is more of a bearish correction within the longer bull cycle. He gives us his analysis on where the equity markets may be heading. Should the S&P hold around this level, we could see a substantial move upwards. He also believes that energy will be moving to the upside.
Lastly, he discusses crude spreads and how they can be a leading indicator. Understanding the inner workings of energy options can give a trader an enormous advantage.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The importance of technical analysis and how it can lead the fundamentals.Calling oil prices back in early 2020 and some leading indicators for those markets.His outlook for gold and the S&P.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Actionable Calls/Hedging3:42 - Technical Analysis4:57 - 2020 Oil Call & Spreads11:16 - Leading Indicators16:02 - Time Frames & Gold24:08 - Resistance Patterns25:23 - Bitcoin Chart & Time28:55 - S&P Progression36:28 - COT Thoughts37:26 - Leading Indicators40:53 - Wrap Up
Guest links:Website: https://www.moor-analytics.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-moor-119b492/recent-activity/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Michael15564596
Michael Moor studied Management and Finance at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) to get a more technical financial background. After starting with Citigroup, he moved on to be a Trader's Assistant for Chicago Research & Trading (CRT) on the trading floor of the NYMEX, working with futures and options pit traders. He developed a reputation for consistently making large directional calls in the markets, and started Moor Analytics at the request of two Natural Gas and Crude Oil option traders. This grew to encompass over 1/4 the NYMEX membership as clients, and was the #1 large-call published analyst on the NYMEX for over 10 years until he moved the business off the floor. He has since also included European energies and Gold, and currently has proprietary traders, hedge funds, and oil companies as clientele.
Moor Analytics produces technically based market analysis and actionable trading suggestions. These are sent to clients twice daily, pre-open and post close, and range from intra-day to multi-week trading suggestions. Markets covered are Crude Oil (WTI), Natural Gas (Henry Hub), Unleaded Gas (RBOB), Heating Oil (ULSD), Brent Crude, Gas Oil, and inter and intra-commodity spreads. Gold is also covered.
Tom welcomes David Haggith, publisher of "The Great Recession Blog". He started his website twelve years ago, shortly after the housing bubble. He invented the term the epocalypse, which stands for 'economic apocalypse' that will be epic in scope. You could also call it the second great depression. He says, "For the last two years I've been extremely accurate." The corona crisis brought massive amounts of money printing. The Fed can no longer print enough to support the equity markets. We're going to have plenty of economic breakdowns and damage. It's hard for people to grasp the rate of change that is occurring.
Money only creates inflation where money moves, and after the lockdowns lifted, we saw inflation take off. Production inflation hit manufacturers hard, and he was proven right that inflation was not transitory. We are going to discover that the recession started in Q1 of this year.
The Fed appears reliant on positive statistics, and they are in denial. The public trusts the Fed, but that trust is likely misplaced. Economists aren't questioning or challenging the Fed's outlook.
The Brookings Institute recently reported that the job market is short five million positions. There has been a million excess deaths in the labor pool lately. This is the reason why the labor market is tight. Production isn't increasing due to the lack of available workers.
We're now entering the period where everything is falling apart due to the system failing. The shortages are going to manifest by the late spring. Crop failures and fertilizer issues will put further pressure on food prices. He recommends you buy the stuff you regularly use in advance because it won't get cheaper.
Bonds have declined the most, likely, since the great depression. There is no evidence this trend will stop, and it could be catastrophic. Credit Suisse is providing a serious example.
He says, "The Fed will slam the brakes on after they've hit the tree. They can shove it in reverse, but the car will be broken, and they won't be going anywhere. It will be highly questionable if they can accomplish anything." The Fed is going to lose much credibility in the coming crisis, and this could eventually lead to hyperinflation.
Lastly, he discusses the problems with gold and why his current preference is to stay in dollars. For now, dollars are relatively safe, but that could change. Investors need to remain nimble because we're in the everything bubble.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Great Recession Calls11:36 - A Precarious Position14:28 - The Feds Rhetoric18:26 - Labor Shortages26:10 - Global Concerns?36:06 - The Bond Bubble Bust37:06 - Another Lehman Moment?39:00 - The Fed is Stuck44:16 - Protecting Wealth49:37 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Past predictions and why we're headed towards the second Great Depression.Why the Fed is in denial and will have great difficulty in the coming crisis.Inflation predictions and the real reasons for the labor shortage.
Guest Links:Website: https://thegreatrecession.infoSubstack: https://thedailydoom.substack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/EconomicRecess
David Haggith is the publisher/editor-in-chief of The Great Recession Blog and the Daily Doom Substack. David began the Great Recession Blog back in 2007 when he realized the U.S. housing market was on the verge of collapse. He urged family to sell their homes near the peak of the market. He decided the world needed a voice that would present more insightful commentary on the economic news of the day than what had been available anywhere in the mainstream media. Furthermore, he was amazed that so few people we're able to see through the nonsense. He doesn't associate with any political party, as politics keep people focused on blaming the other side and not recognizing the flaws on theirs. He's made a number of successful market calls and forecasts for past recessions. David believes we are now entering a Second Gr...
Tom welcomes back the Market Weather Forecaster Kevin Wadsworth. Kevin discusses his background in assessing systemic risks. He believes there are serious risks of systemic failure, particularly in Europe. U.S. government debt is in a parabolic rise, and the math is starting to no longer add up. The cracks are forming in the foundations of the global central banking system.
Kevin shows off his US 10-Year yield chart, which demonstrates a forty-year historic trend shift.
The various PPI charts for Europe are quite literally off the charts. Germany, Italy, France, Eurozone, and U.K. have all had massive rises in their producer price indexes which surpass all historic levels even wartime. We are in uncharted waters. There is a delay between PPI levels and consumer prices. This doesn't feel transitory, and who knows what the consequences will be.
We've also had absolute chaos in the U.K. pound versus the dollar. The evidence is now suggesting that problems will begin appearing in the United States. Whenever markets reach mainstream news headline levels, look for a coming reversal. The U.K. central bank has now restarted easing.
Europe is seeing sky-high electrical prices, in part due to natural gas shortages. They are currently around seven times normal highs. The government solution is to subsidize electricity and have the populace pay the excess cost back later on. We're guaranteeing future inflation. The U.K. has extremely limited storage capacity for natural gas. People need to be prepared for long power outages this winter. We could see a series of domino like systemic failures this winter.
History demonstrates that in a true large bear market, drops of 70-80% are normal. Hard assets are the place to be in this type of environment.
He notes that Bitcoin has never been through a circular market downturn in equities. Should it break out above the 30-week MA and move up despite equity performance, that would be a good sign.
Short-term quick jumps like we just saw in silver are unlikely to mean that much. Investors need to be cautious and wait for the preponderance of the weight of evidence.
There are multiple reasons why governments and central banks alike would want CBDCs, including control and ease of taxation.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Systemic Collapse Risk4:58 - Yen & Pound Stability7:00 - Rate Hikes & Yields13:20 - European PPI Indexes16:41 - Pound Vs. Dollar20:45 - Electric & NatGas Prices29:15 - Equity Markets32:50 - Gold Vs. Equity Ratios35:50 - Gold & Purchasing Power40:14 - Cryptocurrencies43:14 - Silver & Finding Bottoms48:45 - Assessing CBDCs & News54:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The systemic risks are building in the global financial system and investors need to exercise caution.PPI Manufacturing inflation indexes for Europe are quite literally off the charts.His assessment of energy, equities, gold, Bitcoin and the potential for more inflation.Be cautious and wait for the significant evidence of market direction.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthstarchartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
The science behind weather forecasting aims to unlock methods and techniques for predicting the future with ever-increasing accuracy. A friend and colleague helped spark an interest in the global economy and the financial world in the early 200...
Tom welcomes Jaime Carrasco of Canaccord Genuity back to the show.
Jaime says, "I've been preparing for this storm for a long time, and it's here. I don't think we can hide from the global volatility." In 2008, they bailed out the banks, but now the question is who will bail out the governments. The spread between the pound and the dollar is too wide, and the monetary systems of today are too interconnected. The U.S. is just the best-looking fiat currency. Gold is currently flying against nearly every currency except the dollar.
We've seen rates change rapidly in just a month. Mortgages are reaching upwards of seven percent. The debt bubble is colossal, and how do we get out from under it. People are failing to recognize the geopolitical shift that is occurring around us. Countries have debt held in U.S. dollars, and now their interest payments are increasing, and the dollar is becoming more expensive.
Stock markets have grown by a hundred trillion since 2008. This came with growth in debt of two hundred trillions. The only way forward in this environment is with a reset. The rising dollar is hiding the inflation in the United States and when that reverses, inflation will show its true face.
The one asset that has benefitted people the best in periods like we are heading through now is the one asset that is least owned by western investors; gold.
Taxes are only going to increase until those in charge wake up. It's going to be the hard times that generate the awareness to fix the system.
We will see benefits once we get through this crisis. Values of society will increase and reliance on family structures. The system will eventually correct. At some point, wiser minds should prevail.
There is political risk coming to the United States at the midterm elections. We could see the Republican's sweep much of the political positions.
There are trillions in dollars, but only billions available in gold. The world's financial pyramid is balancing on that tiny amount of gold.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - The Storm is Here5:33 - Feds Responsibility12:19 - Inflation Causes15:20 - Hedging Carefully21:56 - Silver Thoughts24:48 - Risk & Debt Per Capita28:04 - Taxation Outlook29:13 - CBDCs & Trust34:49 - The Truth During War39:15 - U.S. Mid-Term Elections42:35 - Gold & Positioning43:53 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The economic storm is here and investors should expect high volatility.Global interconnectedness and the debt-based currency system.Political risk this fall with the U.S. midterm elections.Mitigating risk by hedging gold.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/
Jaime Carrasco is portfolio manager at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in Toronto. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.
"Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind,
Tom welcomes economist and author Dr. Nomi Prins to the show.
Nomi explains how central banks are adversely affecting everyone on the planet. The Fed is the mothership in this global policy structure. Tensions are building between the United States and China, particularly around monetary policy. Since the financial crisis of 2008 the Fed has blown out their balance sheets with monetary easing. China had a similar policy, but they channeled that monetary energy into building up the country. As a result, they had significant growth, while in the United States the economy staggered.
She explains how financial markets have become permanently distorted due to a move away from real economics. When there is a crisis, we will once again double the size of the balance sheet to resolve the problem. This has become a permanent policy because there is no going back. The Fed admits that it would take at least five years to begin to lower their balance sheet. Money remains easily obtainable to the financial system, but it doesn't provide true follow through to the real economy.
She notes that central banks exercise a huge amount of control and power over the economic system. Jerome Powell can move markets, and amounts to a remarkable amount of power.
Emerging markets and other central banks end up forced to follow the policies of the Federal Reserve. The majority of them follow closely on the actions of the Fed. The stronger the U.S. dollar, the harder it is on other fiat currencies. Central banks do collude to achieve specific goals, and they are rarely transparent about it.
At a fundamental level, the system is too complex to go back, and the result is an economic system that is becoming increasingly volatile. The economy really hasn't grown for the last decade. We would have had a series of major corrections if it wasn't for the continuous intervention.
Powell doesn't talk much about what is occurring outside the United States. Major countries like Japan and the U.K. are having to intervene to support their currencies. The Fed seems to more concerned about what the markets think than the problems of other countries.
Europe is already having an economic crisis impacting both industry and citizens alike due to costs of energy. We're already seeing companies close or reduce hours, and there is no reason to believe that will change anytime soon. The conversation about energy and fuel prices is occurring everywhere in Europe.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Financial Conditions1:53 - Monetary Restraint4:50 - Permanent Distortions9:22 - Monetary Power11:40 - Following Suit13:57 - Banking Collusion19:45 - They Don't Care21:42 - Increasing Volatility24:45 - Marginal Utility29:05 - Feds Inflation Talk33:52 - Yen & Pound Interventions38:00 - Energy & Europe41:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why there is no going back for the Fed, and its economic policies.Impacts of a higher dollar on emerging economies and other currencies.Europe's already severe energy crisis and why the economic impacts will only worsen.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/nomiprinsWebsite: https://nomiprins.com/Pre-Order Book: https://nomiprins.com/books/#permanent-distortion
Dr. Nomi Prins as a Wall Street insider and outspoken advocate for economic reform, Nomi Prins is a leading authority on how the widespread impact of financial systems continues to affect our daily lives. She has spent decades analyzing and investigating economic and financial events at the ground level and meeting with those that shape the world's geopolitical-economic framework. She continues to break stories by conducting independent research, writing best-selling books, and traversing the globe to share her knowledge and demystify the world of money.
Before becoming a renowned journalist and public speaker, Nomi reached the upper echelons of the financial world where she worked as a managing director at Goldman Sachs,
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno. Nick founded The Financial Underground and is Editor-in-Chief of the Contra Speculator.
Nick discusses the coming shift in the world of reserve currencies. Powell's recent statements indicate there may be room for more than one reserve currency. There are several possible outcomes regarding global currencies. Eventually, countries will be forced through competition to move towards using a gold backed system.
Nick believes that CBDC systems would almost certainly be worse than our current system. They would likely be restrictive and allow those in charge to eliminate privacy and micromanage their use in dangerous ways. Such a system seems doomed to failure.
Money only needs to act as a store and allow for the exchange of value. So, fiat, gold, silver, crypto, or even barter might be workarounds under a CBDC system. Governments aren't more powerful than the free market and the voluntary choices of billions of people. Free parallel markets will emerge out of necessity.
Nick explains how Bitcoin differs from the other coins. Bitcoin is not controlled by any one group and is therefore it's very hard to change the underlying rules around it. This is a good thing, as Bitcoin is the only one that can disrupt central banks.
The Fed has largely lost its credibility, and they are manipulating public opinion. Just a look at their discussions about inflation. They should have no credibility because they deserve none.
Since the Covid crisis occurred, the money supply has increased by forty percent. If your wealth hasn't increased by forty percent since March 2020 then you're losing ground. We are reaching an endgame that won't take long to play out. There is a lot of risk in this environment because governments have a tendency to flip the game board in these situations.
He believes the pipeline sabotage will cause huge problems for Europe this winter. Plenty of things will come to a head by next year.
Lastly, he says, "Hard assets are useful because they can't be easily produced and therefore are the best for preserving wealth. Don't put your savings into unbacked liabilities. Be prepared because the coming months will be wild."
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Dollar Replacements8:15 - Gold Standard Benefits9:22 - Digital Currencies11:06 - Parallel Alternatives16:16 - A Debt Jubilee?22:00 - Education & Inflation24:24 - Fed Credibility27:27 - Does Debt Matter?29:28 - Inflation Today30:40 - Optimism & Control34:20 - Pipeline Sabotage36:15 - Preserving Wealth39:37 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The future of reserve currencies globally.The functions of money and why CBDCs will fail.Why the Fed has lost all credibility and how to preserve your wealth.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/NickGiambrunoWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in:
The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek,
Tom welcomes back our little green chicken friend otherwise known as Doomberg. Many things have happened since he last dropped by, and now the sky does indeed seem to be falling.
Doomberg discusses how newsworthy events keep accelerating. News broke yesterday that a pressure drop occurred in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Russia to Germany. It has never been used, even after many billions spent on its construction. It runs parallel with the Nord Stream 1 which used to provide much of Europe's natural gas. Furthermore, it now appears that both pipelines have been sabotaged. The consequences will be vast for Europe, and we could see serious geopolitical escalation.
Much will depend on the degree of damage to the pipeline. In a perfect world, the damage might be limited, but repairs would probably take twenty plus weeks. Who will pay to have the pipelines repaired? This event could condemn Europe to multiple disastrous winters.
Various E.U. countries can only store a small percent of their winter needs. Austria has a large storage capacity, while in other countries like the U.K. storage is basically non-existent. Europe is entering the winter with insufficient stores. How will the gas reserves be efficiently distributed.
Natural gas supplies to Japan are also becoming problematic due to the demand from Europe. The Yen is under pressure because of the dollar's rise and the lack of availability of gas.
The strong 'milkshake' dollar is becoming a real problem for nations. Luke Gromen believes the Fed will be forced to pivot at some point. Doomberg says, "What can't go on forever usually doesn't."
The west shouldn't be trying to limit energy supplies like those from Russia. Supply and demand economics makes it clear that shortages cause high prices. The sanctions have only created more profits for Russia. We should instead try to swamp the markets with cheap supply. Doomberg notes, "It seems like there is a lack of second and third order thinking."
Doomberg asks, "How much pain does a developed, civilized society like Germany need to experience before they consider opening a physics textbook?" History will use them as a case study. Less efficient forms of energy and scarcity have historically resulted in more dead people.
Talking Points From This Episode
Pipeline explosions and massive problems in Europe.Currency problems as the dollar powers higher.Gas storage in Europe and problems looming in agriculture.The need for nuclear energy in the green utopia.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:55 - Downstream Effects4:20 - Ramifications9:32 - E.U. Gas Levels11:57 - Japan & the Yen15:05 - Currencies & Mindsets17:20 - U.S. Treasuries21:13 - Russian Energy25:44 - Dedollarization27:12 - A Perfect Storm32:30 - The Green Hypocrisy36:50 - Facing Reality38:23 - Tradeoffs & Nuclear46:50 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Larry discusses how bad news sells and everyone has a cognitive bearish bias. If you focus on the bad too much, then reality gets in your way. We saw capitulation in this market back in June. This is typically an excellent point to enter markets.
The stock markets are the biggest money making system ever invented if you can hold on.
It's hard to find a good indicator that calls market tops. Good indicators reflect what is happening in markets. Emotions drive markets.
He discusses how each indicator should have a separate purpose. He uses COT reports to understand where the smart money is moving in the market. Seasonality plays are also important to consider.
There are natural cycles to the way things happen. When a combination of indicators coincide, that boost the probability of a winning trade. Markets move for fundamental reasons, including demand and economic condition reasons. You need both to understand what is going on in markets.
Usually, rising interest rates are bearish for stocks. Recessions usually start when central banks begin dropping rates after a period of increase. This may indicate those in control feel things are starting to turn bad. Stocks always bottom before a recession ends.
Larry believes the inflation period is ending, and it's part of a six-year cycle. The math is going to start showing improvements in the CPI.
We're in a fiat currency system, which has different rules than a gold backed system. Debt matters today, but only to a point. Currencies can get out of control, but if you have good financial leadership, the economy can be regulated.
He shows some charts that demonstrate that equity markets often lead inflation.
Larry believes that Bitcoin will be the tulip of our time. Commodities are the leading driver for gold. The only difference is the irrational emotional exuberance around its value.
He discusses his views on inflation and why paying attention to the commercial buying of gold futures is important.
There are commodities with strong seasonality like crops which tend to move in October.
Money management and controlling your emotions in trades is key. Learning and analyzing your losing trades is vital.
Talking Points From This Episode
Trading advice and indicators from decades of being in the markets.Thoughts on the gold markets and the underlying causes of inflation.Seasonality and patterns in equities and the CPI.
TimeStamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Change & Perspective3:35 - Favorite Indicators4:35 - Trading Vs. Investing5:48 - Fed & Positioning8:07 - Indicators & Purpose11:38 - Rising Rates & Stocks14:07 - Recessions & Labor14:56 - Inflation Cycles16:40 - CPI Chart Pattern20:43 - Causes of Inflation24:40 - Dollar Dominance26:12 - Equities & Inflation30:34 - Fallen Angels31:45 - Dollar & Crude Oil32:53 - Gold Drivers36:43 - COT Charts & Trends42:26 - Perspectives & Truth43:48 - Seasonality & AG46:00 - IBM Seasonality49:31 - General Trading Advice52:41 - Wrap Up
Website: https://www.ireallytrade.com/Books: https://www.amazon.com/Larry-R.-Williams/e/B001IOBJCA/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_pop_1
Larry Williams has been trading futures, commodities, and stocks for almost 60 years.
Through good years and bad, Larry has survived recording and teaching his market wisdom.
Larry is a best-selling author featured on Amazon. You can find most of the books Larry has written there.
Larry Williams has taught thousands to trade the markets, and has been the only futures trader in the world to repeatedly trade $1 million of his own money live at seminars around the globe.
Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn to the show. Peter is the founding partner of WaveTrack International.
Peter discusses how his commodity supercycle theory is likely to play out. This is a very long-term cycle over the past ninety plus years.
Many companies were wiped out during the pandemic, and there have been many mergers. This has resulted in shortages along with events like the Ukraine war. Much of this had to do with the transportation ports being unable to keep up with demand. He shows some Elliot Wave charts which detail how inflation in emerging markets and U.S. stocks. Elliott wave is quite useful for seeing patterns and determining where markets are likely to head. After this year's correction plays out, he sees a big commodity cycle move next year across many asset classes. Both interest rates and inflation will move considerably higher.
Elliott models are based on repeating patterns that aren't random. There is a process of pattern development that can help predict future events. It's not a crystal ball, as it may be hard to determine why things will play out. Central banks around the world are playing catch up with inflation. They seem to have failed to recognize the signs that inflation would appear.
Markets fundamentals aren't as useful as you might expect. The Fed's upcoming announcement will be interesting to see how things play out.
Investment banks are reporting that the dollar is a crowded trade. This could mean we're reaching a terminal phase for that trend.
He gives some predictions for copper, crude, and gold. Central banks appear to be behind the curve and reacting instead of being proactive. They need to be more forward-thinking.
Peter shows some long-term trends for the dollar and why we will see a decline out to 2030. The dollar may not have much left to the upside. The causes of this will likely be continued dedollarization and inevitable loss of confidence. Whatever the trigger, we're going to see a change in the way it's treated globally.
Gold has been declining since March due to dollar strength. He believes we're close to a bottom and should begin a new leg up. Silver appears to have bottomed, which is a good sign for gold. Silver normally only outperforms gold in an uptrend.
Peter sees massive potential for platinum and miners in general over the next couple of years.
Lastly, he examines the various indexes and their possible lows. We may be in for a final countertrend rally before we reach the lows.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Commodity Supercycle6:50 - Elliott Waves & Inflation14:12 - Fundamental Drivers20:25 - Fed Announcements23:13 - Patterns & News26:00 - Copper Prices & Crude34:59 - Dollar Strength & Gold47:16 - Silver Performance50:48 - Platinum52:24 - Trading Approaches54:10 - Mining Equities58:30 - Market Indices & Yields1:07:56 - Interest Rates1:10:05 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
How the commodity supercycle will play out.Outlook for copper, crude, gold, silver and yields.Why silver and platinum will outperform.Downside targets for equity indexes.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.wavetrack.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTI
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s, working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.
His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental n...
Mark Magarian returns to the show to discuss the markets and the fundamental outlook for gold. Timing is key in these markets.
Mark discusses the importance of managing risk and considering the fundamentals of assets. Volatility isn't necessarily the concern, but more importantly is their cash flow. Resource companies with diversification across metals and jurisdictions are important considerations.
There have been a number of surprises over the past couple of years. Including the policies of governments and how some of them have persisted. We're dealing with the aftermath of the money printing, and we see the problems in logistics and supply. The Fed's fight on inflation is also very interesting, but inevitably the markets can't deal with high rates for very long.
Many who invested in crypto markets may not have been interested in hard metals. Most larger players in the space aren't interested in metals either. They see crypto as a spin-off of tech related sectors. Crypto really is new tech.
Silver can be a better speculative indicator than gold. Gold is increasingly looking quite attractive. A good indicator for gold is when the yield curve moves out of inversion. This indicates the Fed is choking, and gold usually has large moves to the upside. We're currently deeply inverted. Gold is quite hated and therefore, as a contrarian, there are some interesting opportunities.
We will see $2000 gold again probably over the next 12 months and likely upwards of $2300 inside 18 months. He discusses ways of keeping gains during the next bull market. This sector is wild and discipline is key, avoid leverage. Watch for gaps up in the gold price and excessive media attention to the sector. Those are indications that it's time to take profits.
The biggest risks in mining are mismanagement and share dilution. Find companies with good balance sheets and growth profiles.
He has high conviction that uranium will move to $100 in the next five years. However, how it gets there is an open question in this market.
Lastly, Mark discusses why oil isn't going away anytime soon and the journey to all electrics will take some time. The United States is being more cautious on energy and natural gas. However, we are still draining the strategic reserves for political purposes. Europe wants all the natural gas we can send, and the Saudis are cutting production slightly. A rise in energy prices this winter seems very likely, but may be somewhat short-lived.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Lessons & Timing4:27 - Managing Risk6:35 - Surprises & Opportunity9:36 - Crypto & Silver16:48 - Gold Fundamentals19:08 - Kinross Announcement20:53 - Forecasts for Gold21:57 - Exiting and Profits25:53 - Nuclear & Uranium31:06 - Oil & Electric Future38:17 - Europe Civil Unrest?39:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points from this Episode
Mitigating risk in these markets and considerations with miners.Why silver and gold plays are looking increasingly attractive.Predictions for gold prices over the next two years.Outlook for energy and risks of civil unrest this winter in Europe.
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-magarian-96a6b624/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Maggers78
Mark Magarian is Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments LLC. Previously, he was a Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Wells Fargo Advisors. He has been in the business for over twenty years. The first half of his career was spent working with hedge funds, and John Paulson was one of his biggest clients. Career Highlights include working for Deutsche Bank in London as a Vice President and being part of the investment team at Gruss & Co.
Since moving to the United States twelve years ago, he became a portfolio manager and has focused on a hard asset strategy that has, at its core, a focus on precious metals.
He is a value investor at heart, but one with a macro perspective for our position in the market cycle.
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the program.
Michael discusses how the bear market is here to stay, and the next phase is coming. We've only experienced the opening salvo. Wall Street will soon realize that earnings are in decline. We're in a global recession with hawkish global central bankers. The market bottom might be around 3300 on the S&P but that is optimistic. Total equity valuations remain considerably overvalued, and they need to correct to fair value.
The yield curve is more inverted than any time in the last forty years. This normally signals recession, and this time is no different. The Fed is buying all the assets, causing interest rate repression. There is no mystery as to the causes of inflation, it's money printing. The Fed has to raise rates to four percent by March 2023. Michael says, "The fact the Fed thinks they can get to four percent and do 95 billion a month in QT is asinine." The Fed is having a very difficult time controlling inflation, and now they don't care what happens to the economy. They cannot pivot, they have to regain credibility. This will be one of the deepest recessions we have ever seen.
The Fed really has no clue about anything, especially the causes of inflation. There has been almost no job creation this year. We're seeing inventories build, which is boosting Q3 GDP, but that won't last. Inflation is a massive embarrassment to the Fed, but they will destroy the economy and markets to accomplish it.
Government is fighting inflation by giving away more money and cancelling student debt. More money isn't going to make college more affordable. They are just creating more demand for services, which will just cause prices to rise further. Subsidies do not fight inflation. We need to increase the supply of goods and services by improving productivity. We've done everything we could to kill productivity through the pandemic.
Tax receipts always fall in recession, and debt service payments are increasing quickly for the government. The national debt is skyrocketing, and a fair interest rate would probably be in double-digits. There are no easy answers in the current system. The negative effects of the rate hikes have barely begun to be felt.
Inflation always peaks during recession, don't listen to the pundits who claim we've peaked.
The four horseman of the economic apocalypse are cash, U.S. sovereign debt, the dollar, and shorts. If you own those four things, you will probably not lose money in this bear market. You might even make money. It's clear we're heading to a liquidity crisis. You want flexibility in this environment.
When rates and the dollar begin to fall sometime in 2023 you will see gold rally.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Bear Market Starting4:39 - Bonds, Spreads, & Banks11:40 - Targeting Inflation15:42 - Indicators & Fed Reliance19:20 - Government Insults22:00 - IRS Growth & Taxes28:33 - The Peak of Inflation30:52 - Economic Apocalypse33:45 - Gold & Positioning38:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
Outlook for the markets and why the bear isn't going away.Why the Fed's is cornered and it's policies asinine.Inflation and why it always peaks during recession.The four safe havens of the economic apocalypse.
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: mpento@pentoport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. He is the author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse" and has a weekly podcast called "The Mid-week Reality Check."
Tom welcomes back Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report, to the show.
Craig discusses how he is becoming an old-timer in this industry and how his website has given him access to people all over the world. If you're going to follow the precious metals, you've got to follow everything from the economy to politics. That exploration unveils all the fraud and corruption in the system.
Events are speeding up, and we see this with Russia's move toward an alternative gold standard for international trade. The inevitable result will be less demand for dollars. As more viable alternatives get built and the dollar continues to be printed, we will see a decline in its value. Numerous countries are heading in this direction.
In today's economy, the paper derivatives of gold and silver control the physical price of metals. We can't double the amount of physical gold, but did multiply the amount of paper equivalents. This creates the perception there is more gold than actually exists. Most people don't realize the dollar is backed by nothing.
The way interest rates have spiked, inflation expectations, and the dollar soaring means we are likely heading for a big crash. We could see another thirty percent drop from here in equities.
Craig discusses how arrogant the Fed and Jay Powell are at believing they can manage the economy. We could easily see a big reset downwards in everything. Consumer prices will not be dropping, but they just might be able to slow their continue rate of increase. Much of the country is living paycheck to paycheck. Many of whom will likely lose their jobs as everything is against the middle class. The mathematical problems inherent in the system are becoming obvious. We are now in the endgame, and you don't want to be caught sleeping.
Craig argues the powers that be, are manipulating the bitcoin markets the same way they manipulate gold and silver. It's no longer a closed loop system now there is more supply through derivative products.
There is a lot of copper flow off the markets, and we're seeing big spreads in silver retail markets. Most of the time the market makers win, and with gold and silver that's the futures banks.
This is a time to be paying attention, and you should be building relationships with your community. Pay close attention in the months ahead because we are in treacherous waters.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:20 - Age and Wisdom5:13 - Moscow Gold Standard12:32 - Paper Drives Physical17:07 - Article - Dead Period23:20 - Jackson Hole Speech27:40 - Destroying Demand33:30 - Redefining & Hubris35:53 - Complacency & Authority39:52 - Changing Your Thinking43:00 - Crypto Mortgages48:37 - Article - Silver Factor53:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The complexity of markets today and importance of following everything.Russia and other countries continued move away from the dollar and the inevitable results.The Federal Reserves hubris in thinking they can 'manage' the global economy.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetalsWebsite: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe
Craig Hemke, aka "Turd Ferguson," was a licensed securities "professional" for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial services," he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal "markets."
Tom welcomes Cliff from the Liberty Offensive channel. Cliff discusses why the ideas of Liberty only work when most people agree. Many people don't even agree on the meaning of terms like Liberty. The way to keep your liberties is to use them to their full extent. A free man needs to defend their beliefs because these are key to their worldview. You should be living it and demonstrating its importance to others, not unlike a religious belief. If you want to spread liberty, you have to tell others. Others need to become inspired by ideas like open carry. Liberty minded folks should impress upon others the importance of freedom and provide inspiration. Show off your freedom and your freedom mindset. Too many people have become complacent, and we must change our approach.
Ultimately, fundamentals will win out since they are tied to the truth, but modern narratives drive everything. However, right now, "We live in a fantasy world, reality has been destroyed." If you can't discern the false narratives from reality, then you will eventually get burnt.
The pattern of rates declining for forty years has now fundamentally shifted. The world has now thoroughly changed, and a new Fed pivot will mean something different. This time a Fed pivot will likely be a bad sign because they are essentially cornered. The bigger threat is now the power of government and the risk of depression. We're seeing this behavior in Europe, where they are printing money to "fix" the energy problem. Politicians are going to make problems worse around the world.
He theorizes that something will break outside the United States. There will be some sort of external reason to stop the tightening.
We're seeing a culmination of various crisis that are happening around the world simultaneously. We're looking at more than just a bad year. He discusses all the problems with agriculture and how it's spilling over to livestock and cattle. Price inflation on food is just beginning.
Cliff notes the miners are all oversold and now is likely a good time to accumulate. Silver may have more upside than uranium. Uranium is showing signs of weakness and a pullback is possible.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Defending Your Liberties8:33 - Freedom for Granted10:51 - Fundamentals & Narratives16:00 - Falling Rates & Charts23:10 - The 'Pivot'al Moment26:22 - Culmination of Crises32:47 - Ratio Synchronicity43:45 - Big Producers46:02 - Uranium or Metals54:02 - Equities & Commodities57:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The importance of defending liberty by going on the offensive.Why the very structure of rates and debt has undergone a paradigm shift.The Fed will pivot when something breaks outside of the United States.Outlook for commodities including gold, uranium, silver, and energy.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/LibertyOffenseYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvgm9qCaW1HR4BLa0mXTh1A
Cliff is the host of the Liberty Offensive YouTube Channel. He is a macro and technical analyst on gold, silver, energy, and commodities.
He provides quick-hitting analysis of macroeconomic events, daily news cycles, markets, technical analysis, politics, trends, and a dynamic sundry of interesting topics. Topics they regularly discuss include commodities, stocks, charts, money, investing, gold, silver, uranium, crypto, bitcoin, and Ethereum.
Tom welcomes back Gary Savage to the show. Gary is a retired entrepreneur, investor, and founder of Smart Money Tracker Premium.
Gary believes the dollar is over-stretched too far above the long-term average. At some point we will have a correction back to the mean which would be good for markets. He expects this to happen by spring or summer of next year and will correlate with the Fed changing course. The coming recession will likely be serious as the Fed over compensates. Problems in energy markets and the war in Ukraine are unlikely to end soon.
Shorting markets is often a difficult way to make money and it's usually hard to catch the tops.
When the dollar starts dropping those suppressing gold will have a very difficult time. The coming cycle will be a very good time to hold gold and silver. Now is the time to accumulate metal and then sell it at the top of the next cycle. He explains possible reasons why these cycles occur and some of the repeating patterns.
Energy is likely to churn sideways this winter and everything will get dragged down in the three-year cycle lows. The next inflationary phase during which central banks panic will bring much higher oil.
This bear market will likely see equities fall to March 2020 lows.
Gary outlines his thoughts on silver and gold along with the miners.
Volatility is going to remain for some time to come and government actions will likely exacerbate inflation. He advises investors to avoid over-leverage on anything at this time. Keep position sizes small and wait for the great opportunity.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Dollar Scenarios4:28 - Recession Expectations7:45 - Gold & Silver Outlook10:48 - Gold Support Cycles13:52 - Energy Markets & Inflation15:50 - Equities Charts20:12 - Nasdaq QQQ Chart23:36 - Gold Futures26:54 - GDX Miners28:55 - Miner Input Costs30:39 - Silver Outlook34:00 - Oil Chart36:56 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Outlook for equity markets and the dollar.Why the recession may be deeper than many expect.Energy markets and how to prepare for the next cycle in markets.
Guest LinksBlog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining, CommodityOnline, SilverMarketNewsOnline, StreetWiseReports, and InvestingNews.
Gary publishes the Smart Money Tracker, a daily and weekend market newsletter available online by subscription only, at a very modest price. This subscription-only site provides Gary's in-depth daily commentary and chart analysis of numerous markets, including the stock, precious metals, oil, and currency markets.
This is an edited recording of a live Twitter Spaces event from September 7, 2022. This second half features Bob Coleman, Jim Hunter and other speakers including O'Hare. We take a few listener questions and Bob Coleman goes in depth into silver and the metals manipulation. We also touch on the demand picture for silver from the solar industry and how costs have been increasing. Keeping prices low for silver may be advantageous to some of these manufacturers.
Keith WeinerTwitter: https://twitter.com/RealKeithWeinerWebsite: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim HunterTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
This is an edited recording of a live Twitter Spaces event from September 7, 2022. This first part features Vince Lanci and Tom Luongo discussing politics, energy, and the metals markets. Keith Weiner explains how gold could be successfully remonetized and his thesis regarding metals manipulation. In Part Two coming out soon we take listener questions and Bob Coleman goes in depth into silver and the metals manipulation.
Vincent LanciTwitter: https://twitter.com/VlanciPicturesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
Tom LuongoWebsite: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Keith WeinerTwitter: https://twitter.com/RealKeithWeinerWebsite: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim Hunter Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks. Gareth addresses the uncertainty in the market and how everything is moving inversely to the dollar.
The Fed is being aggressive, and they may back off once inflation improves, but recession fears build.
He shows how the USD/Yen is indicating the possibility of a dollar pullback. The dollar has been dominating the Euro, but Natural Gas is showing a price drop over the past few days. It's possible the gas situation with Russia isn't as bad as many expect. The Fear seems to have subsided over the weekend, and we are seeing a reversal. The dollar has pushed too hard too fast and therefore is likely to reverse for a while.
Bonds aren't reflecting the concern that the Fed has been expressing. The smart money is betting the hikes won't be as big and is calling the Powell's bluff. Gareth hopes the Fed will only hike another 50 basis points. He hopes they are being careful and are focused on the inflation numbers.
A recession seems likely even if the Fed moves more dovish. A recession will be the cause of the next leg down in the markets. Downside targets are the pre-covid highs in the markets. An even lower retest is quite possible. How does the economy get out of recession once it begins. We could have all out panic in the markets.
Gold has been performing quite well this year, especially compared to other currencies and markets. Gold is only down four percent despite the dollar being up over 15 percent. This is very bullish for gold. When the dollar really starts to drop, gold will take off. Metals are the safest place to be, particularly gold. Silver is also at a great level right now, perhaps near a major bottom with excellent technical support.
Miners have been hit hard due to inflation and their input costs. Should inflation come down and the Fed pivots, then miners will outperform.
We're on the precipice of a global recession. Longer-term, Russia and OPEC may have miscalculated, as Europe will try to become energy independent.
Bitcoin investors have to keep in mind that this bear market isn't being backed by Fed printing.
It's important to monitor your emotion and consider where everyone is at on trades. The same patterns repeat over and over in markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Market Uncertainty1:58 - USD Safety?3:30 - USD/Yen Chart4:12 - Euro/Dollar & Nat Gas8:06 - The Fed & Bond Markets9:17 - Recession & Employment10:27 - Fed & Market Targets15:22 - Gov't & Central Banks17:27 - Metals Performance20:16 - Gold & Silver Support22:00 - Miners & Sentiment23:29 - Oil, OPEC, & Inflation25:58 - Wages & Inflation28:02 - Bitcoin Limbo30:07 - Emotional Regulation31:47 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comBlog: https://inthemoneystocks.com/author/gareth/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004,
Tom welcomes back, John Lee, President and CEO of Silver Elephant Mining and Director of Battery Metals Royalties Corp.
John discusses how coal has been a number one commodity worldwide recently. While many want to get away from coal, it continues to persist. Many less developed countries simply don't have any other alternatives. He is also cautious on uranium because as the number of operating nuclear reactors continues to decline. It takes many years to build a new nuclear plant, while a coal plant can be online in just a couple of years for a reasonable price.
The resource business is rapidly changing and ESG is becoming a big factor in the industry. ESG programs bring many government incentives, but also considerable strings. The playing field for these policies need to be fair and level.
The sanction policies against Russia are only creating wealth for middlemen who can maneuver around these edicts.
John discusses how difficult the silver market is to assess and forecast. Often it doesn't trade on fundamentals, and investment demand is mostly a retail market. Also, there is a lot of substitution of the metal with cheaper alternatives. It's probably best to look at how gold is performing to see where silver will head. The silver market could remain irrational for some time.
He believes the dollar may continue to have strength as most other currencies will fare poorly. He is not a dollar bear at this time.
John notes the tightness in the nickel market and why that is likely to persist. Companies like Tesla need huge amounts of nickel. Elon was the first to secure supply direct from producers a couple of years ago. Now, other companies are following suit. There is a lot of speculation in the sector, and we witnessed what can happen during a major short squeeze. Newer battery technology could offset some of the nickel demand, but that will take time. Governments aren't likely to interfere in the nickel markets because they need this to meet their green energy goals. Nickel has very interesting dynamics, and John remains very bullish on this metal.
Lastly, he discusses his thoughts on the bond markets, debt and interest rates. Problems are going to manifest as the ten-year yield has broken out of it's forty year trend.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Coal and Uranium4:48 - Green Energy8:15 - E.S.G. Trends15:19 - Russian Sanctions19:34 - Silver Markets25:09 - Gold, Silver Ratio27:37 - Euro, Yen, & Dollar31:29 - Commodity Supercycle37:36 - The Nickel Squeeze48:34 - Nickel Demand54:27 - Rates & Inflation1:01:06 - Wrap Up
Twitter: https://twitter.com/johnlee25893955Website: http://royalbatt.com/Website: https://www.silverelef.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lee-baa93422/
John Lee, CFA, is CEO and President of Silver Elephant Mining and Director of Battery Metals Royalties Corp. He is an accredited investor with over twenty years of experience in mining. Mr. Lee specializes in M&A, and he has negotiated and financed Pulacayo silver acquisition (Bolivia) in 2015, Gibellini vanadium (Nevada) in 2017, Sunawayo silver (Bolivia) in 2020, and Minago nickel (Canada) in 2021. John graduated from Rice University with bachelor's degrees in Economics and Engineering.
Tom welcomes J.E.S. the author of "The Real Truth About Inflation."
Jes is trying to enlighten everyone about deeper economics and the causes of inflation. Most of us don't fully understand the full consequences of these types of economic conditions. He's found American's to be the least educated around the topic of inflation. They're somewhat numbed to how the world works due to the American dollar's status.
Inflation is an increase in the quantity of currency supply. This is the premise by which inflation begins and is not to be confused with real money. Velocity is the circulation component of currency through an economy. It's the rate at which currency changes hands. This rate sometimes creates an illusion that there is more money than actually exists. There are many variables to money velocity, and it's difficult to get fairly determine it.
Price inflation is more common in currency based economic systems. Real money can't be rapidly inflated because it's tied to a resource like gold. Money is supposed to be an unchanging metric that is inherently useful at determining value. The problem with currencies is their unit of measurement is constantly changing, making it very difficult to determine true value.
He discusses how all countries issue debt, set interest rates, and control their currencies.
The dollar has fallen nearly 100% since 1913. In 1913 gold was worth around $22 an ounce; therefore it's essentially lost all of its purchasing power. Today, we need so many units of them to match its historic value. Imagine if we changed the definition of a mile by 98 times. The U.S. dollar is losing all meaning.
Money is useful for constraining government's ability to create debt. Today, total debt numbers are becoming increasingly meaningless as these numbers reach incomprehensible levels.
He explains the benefits of gold and the platinum group elements and why they are so useful for preserving value. These metals don't break down or rust, unlike almost everything else in society.
The idea of the Fed having a two percent inflation target seems dumb on its face. They justify it by contrasting it against GDP growth.
We're in a financial doom vortex that the average person can never get ahead of, and wages are unlikely to keep up.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Intended Audience3:25 - Defining Terms8:28 - Currency Vs. Money13:24 - Rates & Distortions19:47 - 1913 Dollar Vs. Gold23:28 - Constraining Gov't28:35 - Rates & Size of U.S. Debt35:46 - Countries & Default37:57 - Why Precious Metals?41:57 - Is the Fed Necessary?48:23 - Recent Fed Printing49:58 - Milkshake Theory54:10 - Q.E. & Inflation Targets1:02:17 - Inflation From Here1:08:32 - Concluding Thoughts1:14:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Educating everyone to bring a more in-depth understanding of economics.Understanding inflation and how money velocity functions.The incredible decline in the purchasing power of the dollar since 1913.
Guest Links:E-Mail: aueconjes@gmail.comAmazon Book Link: https://tinyurl.com/bdz9eue2
Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to discuss the global economy and the rapidly declining trust between governments.
Simon notes that global trust is rapidly disintegrating, and often that trust is replaced by war. The Western economies are quite likely to flat line or enter into recession by the end of the year. Central Banks are more fearful of recession trends than inflation. In the end, their choice is either hyperinflation or recession. This winter we will see huge food inflation, driven both by policy and environmental problems. The world is going to have moderate growth, but inflation will be persistent across everything. It is human nature to stock up when prices are rising, which will exacerbate supply problems.
Russia has determined that the West will not listen to their concerns. Therefore, they are taking steps to ensure their own survival. The American policy is clearly to control and collapse foreign economies. The BRICS nations have been trying to create alternatives to the West's systems. Simon is concerned with how America will respond when alternative currencies appear. Saudi Arabia has announced their intention to join the BRICS.
Putin has recently stated, "The economy of mythical entities is inevitably being replaced with one of real value and assets."
The pivot from the dollar has been in place for some time. Fed policy is only going to accelerate the process. By the middle of 2023 we will probably see a big fall in the dollar index. This will happen when Russia, China and others start operating with a new currency.
Commodities under a new BRICS currency system will be used as a benchmark, and this will include gold.
Tensions are likely to continue to worsen between China and the United States. When empires historically fail they are left with one option which is war. The U.S. is militarizing countries around China, including Taiwan. They are openly calling for Taiwan's independence. China wants to avoid war, as the next government in Taiwan is likely to move closer to China.
Simon discusses commodities and where copper will likely head over the next couple of years. The LME has become very much a casino. He believes volatility will continue across all commodities. Managing and hedging that volatility will be crucial.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:53 - Energy & Inflation8:24 - Conflict Period13:50 - Putin Quote16:46 - Inflationary Seeds20:54 - NATO, Russia, & China24:00 - Dollar Decline & Copper35:27 - Copper Market Pricing37:23 - Commodity Volatility40:08 - Geopolitics & Timelines43:00 - Food Scarcity45:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why global trust is disintegrating and risks of war are increasing.How will the West react to new currency systems that compete with the dollar.Outlook for copper and commodities in general.Risks of a recession and dollar decline starting next year.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comReport: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.
He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.
He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993,
Tom welcomes back Jon Forrest Little, publisher of 'The Pickaxe' to the show. Jon discusses how the world is fracturing into two economic sides. There have been fifty-seven wars since World War II, and they have all largely been disasters. The United States has spent trillions on these conflicts, and now the dollar itself is at risk. China and Russia are studying U.S. economic policy carefully. Every time the government bails out a particular sector or engages in additional conflict, the credibility of the dollar system wanes.
China is connecting seventy-five percent of the world's population, along with fifty percent of global GDP. The United States and IMF prefer to provide debt-trap financing to other nations instead of being a benefactor. The U.S. is reliant on the petrodollar, but now, even the Saudi's have pivoted toward Russia. Nations are beginning to transact in gold and are bypassing any sanctions.
Western central banks never talk about gold, unlike those in the East. We will have a new Bretton Woods unless the West chooses to remain in denial. Everything is going to come down to who controls and has access to energy. Russia is good at managing foreign relations, and many countries want to move away from Western systems. U.S. foreign policy starts out diplomatic, but often escalates to forceful coercion. We see that now, domestically with, 87000 new tax collectors.
The Fed is pretending to act tough on inflation, but it's all a cover to raise rates. These creatures at the Fed are creating inflation and causing most of the problems via currency debasement.
The climate emergency is another method for enforcing additional control on the population. The Chinese lockdowns are due to energy issues. Governments want these authoritarian tools.
They want the population always in a state of fight or flight. This way they can't think as they're too busy responding to fear. We need an informed population, not one that is being spoon-fed. The current sound-bite daily debate is woefully lacking substance.
Get yourself out of the system and find a community that you can build around. Find the sources that already question things and distrust the mainstream. Those in power today aren't even bothering to hide the corruption anymore. This is normal for the endgame of empires.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:24 - World Bifurcating6:48 - Gold, Trade & BRICS9:28 - West Vs. BRICS10:49 - Bretton Woods 2.0?16:38 - Collapse Signs18:38 - Silver Opportunity21:15 - The Fed & Inflation25:08 - Economists & Resources27:32 - Energy Issues29:08 - Climate Emergency33:16 - Normalizing Dystopia38:10 - Information Sources43:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The decline of the United States and the rising East.China's infrastructure project connecting 75 percent of the world's population.Why the Fed is talking tough on inflation.The collapsing middle class and the need for community in the coming years.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.thepickaxe.xyzTwitter: https://twitter.com/ThePickaxe_Ag
Jon Forrest Little studied at the University of New Mexico with an emphasis on history, Latin American foreign policy, and archaeology. He studied processual archaeology under distinguished anthropologist Lewis Binford. Jon also attended Georgetown University's Institute for Comparative Political and Economic Systems.
Little began his professional career working for 21 years in the clay mining industry. He worked with companies drawing from shale mines surrounding Mount Cristo Rey in El Paso. These clay deposits were unique because two manufacturing plants from two separate countries (north and south of the US-Mexican border) shared the clay resources. The same clay deposits were used by Mexican and US brick manufacturers. This experience sharpened Jon's knowledge of international business and labor relations. Jon also worked with dozens of clay mines near Pueblo and El Dorado, Colorado.
Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod to the show. Alasdair is the Head of Research for GoldMoney and an advocate for sound money.
Alasdair prefers to focus on the big picture for gold and the economy. We are nearing a bank credit contraction, which will be severe. GDP is the measure of total bank credit in an economy. He believes a banking crisis is coming quite soon, perhaps only a month or two away.
Alasdair notes, "There is only a snowball in hell's chance that politicians will stop printing money." Fixing things would require a fundamental shift in the way government participates in the economy. There are massive risks to bankers if corporations with loans can't repay.
Aladair outlines his recent article on geopolitics and economic split that is developing. Russia and China both have significant gold reserves. It's apparent we are making bad policy choices around Russia. Russia is making their energy policies clear to everyone, including those in the Middle East. It's clear the West is trying to move away from oil, which is creating opportunities for other countries.
The Russian economy works fairly well and has reasonable income tax levels. They still have a few problems around protection of property ownership. The actions of Russia and BRICS nations is designed to reduce and eventually remove the dollar's hegemonic status.
Alasdair discusses the problems in China, particularly in their housing markets. China has a firm control of their credit and banking system. Long-term, they will likely ride out these issues.
The prices for energy are extremely worrisome, as prices are quite literally off the charts. We also have to consider the probability of food problems this winter.
The Euro trend downwards relative to the dollar is concerning. More concerning is the amount of bonds accumulated by the E.U. will bring significant mark to mark losses as rates rise. The Euro system itself is bust.
Lastly, he cautions that investors should take the opportunity of low prices on gold and silver. Get some insurance in the form of precious metals, you might need it.
Talking Points From This Episode
Why the world is facing a serious bank credit contraction.The developing economic split between the East and West.Concerns for the E.U. bond markets and why the Euro system is failing.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Metals Sentiment5:04 - Reversing Policy9:15 - Rates, Risks, & Gold13:08 - Gold Demand Increase?15:12 - World Splitting in Two25:08 - Geopolitical Alignments28:35 - Problems in China32:32 - Europe, Winter is Coming38:28 - Political Intentions40:10 - Euro Parity Breakdown44:16 - Basel III Purpose47:27 - Derivative Risks53:10 - Commodities & Energy54:52 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insightsArticle: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/geopolitics-the-world-is-splitting-into-two
Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money through demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist.
Alasdair Macleod started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macroeconomic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the conse...
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show.
Alfonso believes the Repo markets could be the most important part of the pyramid going forward. The system is continuing to add more layers and levels to the way markets work. Repo markets exist below bonds at the very base of the pyramid. Repo markets allow for leveraging of bonds and treasuries.
Repo markets are very active to the tune of trillions per day. Pension funds, asset managers, or corporate treasurers are on the other side of these trades. So long as financing costs are predictably low, there aren't many problems. There is a lot of cash chasing a limited amount of collateral. When Repos become unsteady, it shakes the entire pyramid structure. These markets can become very tight rapidly.
The Fed has not changed its inflation targets. They want to be improving inflation expectations because it impacts their credibility. They are very committed to shrinking their balance sheets. The chances of a soft landing in this environment are quite low. It will likely take a fairly big recession to bring inflation back to two percent. Probably a recession that lasts up to two years. However, the system is much more leveraged and fragile than in the past. This makes addressing the problems much more complex.
He shows us the G5 Credit Impulse chart. It reflects private sector bank balances and if they are increasing or shrinking. This is indicative of economic activity across the G5 nations and is a leading indicator of economic activity. It's currently falling off a cliff, and therefore economic growth and earnings are likely to fall further.
A recession is when people are fired and are losing their jobs. This shows up in business models that start to crumble, and then bleeds over to the rest of the economy and housing. He says, "We are going to have a proper recession."
Markets want to make money, and they wish to hear that inflation is coming under control. However, this is not the case. We need momentum for inflation figures to decline. Investors should be cautious in the risks they take with their portfolio.
Something very foundational will have to break for the Fed to change to a dovish approach. There will be a point where they have generated enough 'damage' to the economy where inflation control is regained.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The importance of the Repo markets and why they are foundational.Fed's inflation targets and why a pivot may be quite some time away.Defining inflation and why the Fed has to get it under control.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:05 - Bond Markets & Repos3:45 - Repo Trading Volume6:20 - Managing Repo Risk9:29 - 2019 Repo Problems12:20 - Bear Traps & Inflation18:04 - Tightening & Bankers22:06 - A Soft Landing?25:03 - Job Markets Report29:32 - G5 Credit Impulse34:02 - Recession Nuances35:48 - CPI Prints & Fed Targets41:58 - Force a Fed Pivot?44:40 - Portfolio Positioning48:33 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn to discuss everything uranium related. The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act does have some provisions that will be beneficial for the Nuclear industry. It includes some tax credits which should help keep existing reactors operational for longer. Some nuclear projects are aging and have higher overhead at times. Maintenance costs may get covered by this bill.
Justin explains the benefits of pricing transparency that the Sprott SPUT ETF has brought to the market. In addition, they've helped buy up the excess inventory. He believes SPUT is going to outperform again as institutional buyers have been accumulating.
There have been logistical problems with deliveries from Kazakhstan due to supply route problems around Russia.
Everything is experiencing a rising cost of doing business, including uranium production and enrichment. This will inevitably lead to higher prices for uranium.
Japan is still cautiously restarting reactors to ensure their safety. It's a slow process, but the public is coming around to the idea and local governments are generally supporting it.
There has been a decade of under-investment in nuclear within France. They've had maintenance problems and the current fleet is running at fifty percent. They are a large exporter of energy, but there are some concerns about what will happen this winter. Hopefully, they can bring more power back online. They have also had issues with drought and water is needed to keep reactors cool. Nuclear is clearly showing that it's a reliable form of energy. We're not sure what is happening in Germany, as electrical prices remain at record levels.
Russia doesn't want a nuclear accident in Ukraine, but they want control of that massive nuclear plant. It provides twenty-five percent of Ukraine's grid. While there are concerns about the potential for sabotage, these are very reinforced structures and shouldn't be vulnerable.
All markets are slow this time of year and this has spilled over to fuel buying. He explains why the market should improve later in the fall.
The uranium market is bifurcating into East and West. This could provide an impetus to extend the length of the bull market.
He believes it may only be a matter of weeks before the next big leg-up in uranium.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Inflation & Green Policy2:47 - Reactor Economics4:32 - Sprott SPUT10:25 - Ukraine Conflict Effects14:13 - Uranium Price Floor15:50 - Japanese Restarts22:13 - Ukraine Nuclear Plant25:42 - Summer Doldrums28:00 - Enrichment Pricing34:29 - M&A Activity36:04 - Bull Market Factors38:03 - SMR Momentum Building41:32 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Benefits to the nuclear industry from the "Inflation Reduction Act".Importance and benefits of the SPUT ETF.Japan's reactor status and the overall energy picture in Europe.Why the Uranium market is becoming bifurcated and the implications.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsider
Other:Shika 2 Hitachi Nuclear Project: https://youtu.be/w2YHrJafMlESMR Story: https://segracapital.com/commentary/the-advanced-nuclear-fuel-cycle-we-can-work-it-out/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Tom welcomes back the other Tom to the show. Please welcome, Tom Luongo producer of the Gold's Goats and Guns blog and podcast. Tom is also an editor at Newsmax and a regular contributor to the Financial Intelligence Report.
Tom explains how Russia's operation in Ukraine has been fairly impressive given the minimal amount of forces they have allocated. Russia is fighting a fairly inexpensive artillery war, and Ukraine is a huge country. Russia wants to leave Ukraine in a position where they are incapable of threatening them again. Much of Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian. Ukraine has been outlawing the Russian language to create conflict since 2014.
The visit by Pelosi to Taiwan was intentional to gauge the response by China. China's response was limited, and cooler heads seem to have prevailed. The U.S. appears to be taking a similar approach to that of Ukraine, as to gradually build up pressure on China.
Tom believes there is a confluence of events happening in late September. There will be referendums in liberated parts of Ukraine to become part of Russia. The FOMC is meeting in late September and quite likely will bring a surprise rate hike. There are also elections in Italy which may take them out of the European Union.
Tom explains the geopolitics between Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. American influence in Italy has been putting pressure on them to leave the union. The U.S. banking system has largely isolated itself from the impacts of the European system.
U.S. banking interests appear to be in direct conflict with old European interests. There is no need for commercial banks under Davos desire for Central Bank Digital Currencies. These currency systems will give those that in charge an abundance of control.
The E.C.B. is capable of going bankrupt, unlike the Fed. The Euro is badly designed, perhaps intentionally. The E.C.B. needs a higher gold price because that's the only asset on their books that has value. By raising rates, the Fed can force a sovereign debt crisis on Europe. Basel III rules are all about doing away with the derivative paper markets to improve the physical spot market. The Fed doesn't want the dollar compromised by higher gold.
Tom believes the Fed will eventually bring rates up to six percent. There will be massive capital flows into the United States. Europe is going to have major problems, and with any luck, the Davos crowd will soon be gone.
Try and be flexible and keep in mind how the state of the game can change.
The goal is survival as these giants play, and gold is just a part of that equation. We all want to get through this the best way possible.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:50 - Russia's Objectives9:36 - Eastern Ukraine14:53 - Taiwan & Pelosi18:45 - A September Confluence22:58 - European Politics30:25 - U.S. Vs. Davos35:15 - CBDC's & Control44:00 - Capital Flight & Gold50:00 - U.S. Bank Isolation1:00:08 - Fed, Debt & Gold1:07:48 - China & the CCP1:10:37 - Ind. Metals & Inflation1:13:02 - Confidence Wars1:17:40 - The Goal is Survival1:22:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
Russia's goals in the conflict with Ukraine.Multiple events are going to make September an interesting month.U.S. Banking interests, the dollar, rates and the impact on European interests.
Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGuns
Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media.
Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner.
He ran for Florida House once and got 2.
Tom welcomes Brian Gitt to the show. Brian has a varied background as an Energy Entrepreneur, Investor, Podcaster, and Writer.
Brian discusses the mistakes he made early in trying to build a business. This caused him to study how to think clearly and question one's beliefs.
Many people believe that fossil fuels are running out, but they overlook the innovation and technology that drives the industry. We're constantly bombarded by the media that we are running out of these resources. We don't have scarcity, it's more about price and technology to obtain these resources.
This narrative of energy scarcity has been part of the drive towards wind and solar. The energy return on energy invested with these are incredibly poor. However, alternatives like nuclear are far better.
When people are given the flexibility to innovate, they can come up with some remarkable ideas. Commodities move in boom, bust cycles. As an investor, you need to know where you are at in the cycle.
The biggest hurdle today for Nuclear is government over regulation. We need safety, but we've gone too far and made things incredibly hard to build. The nuclear regulatory agency has not licensed any new power plants since their founding. How can you improve safety if you don't work with new designs?
He believes we've largely solved the problems of nuclear waste storage and transportation. Newer reactor designs are reusing these waste fuel products and thus reducing their radioactivity.
Solar and wind power can't replace large scale power plants because they are intermittent sources. We have yet to solve the storage problems for energy. He contrasts the amount of land needed for nuclear with that of wind and solar.
There is a convergence of factors impacting carbon output in Europe and globally. We are continuing to rely on coal. The recent events in Europe have already wiped out all the gains from wind and solar.
America doesn't have an energy plan, we just have corporate welfare and special interests feeding at the trough of special interests.
Talking Points From This Episode
The importance of questioning ones beliefs.Why the energy scarcity narrative is flawed.The importance of nuclear energy and why it's safe.Why solar and wind can only supplement existing grid solutions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction4:13 - Fossil Fuels7:07 - Incentivizing Production10:00 - Shale Oil & Credit11:30 - Nuclear Hurdles18:08 - Waste Remediation22:18 - Nuclear Innovation27:32 - Energy Densities32:44 - Land Use & Environment40:53 - Waste Production44:32 - First Principals47:57 - Electric Vehicle Concerns52:00 - Global Carbon Levels56:37 - Marketing Terms57:50 - Fracking Thoughts1:00:14 - Optimal Countries?1:07:13 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://briangitt.com/Books: https://briangitt.com/books/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianGitt
Brian Gitt is an Energy Entrepreneur, Investor, Podcaster, and Writer.
He led business development at Reach Labs to deliver long-range wireless power in industrial, asset management, and supply chain applications.
He also founded UtilityScore a software company which provided homebuyers with estimates for their utility costs. Their product brought a new level of transparency to the process of buying, renting, and renovating housing.
He was the CEO of a consulting firm later acquired by Frontier Energy specializing in clean energy to commercialize new technology in buildings, vehicles, and power plants.
He was the Executive Director of Build It Green, where he built up a network of 2,500 building industry stakeholders.
Brian loves the outdoors and has led mountaineering expeditions in Alaska, spent months backpacking in the Rockies and climbed in various national parks across the U.S.
Tom welcomes Patrick Karim back to the show to discuss his latest charts. Patrick is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader.
Patrick discusses the importance of gathering clues regarding the data in the charts. You want to get on the fastest train, so you can increase your assets. Always, wait for those break-outs before you envision those higher price targets. With equities, charts can show you what will happen before the public knows the latest fundamentals.
Patrick shows the SPX Chart priced against oil. We might expect the SPX to drop by over 90% compared with oil. Historically, the ratio can reach three to one relative to oil. Headline, attention-grabbing numbers don't stick around for long, that's probably when you want to be selling.
He notes we seem to be at a turning point in purchasing power similar to that of the 1970s. He notes how these periods compare with the price of silver. The destruction of purchasing power seems to be increasing faster than in the 1970s.
Lebanon's currency has lost several thousand percent since 2019. It was priced at 1500 in 2019 and today is over 32000. By the time they get their money back, it will be worthless. This is why investors should have physical gold outside the system.
The long-term ten-year yield chart shows when one can expect a shift in gold. Currently, it appears we're near or at the bottom for gold. It seems unlikely they can raise rates enough to break out of this 40 year pattern. Volatility has been steadily increasing.
We're at the high water market for debt saturation. When we hit these types of levels, something important breaks. We appear to be once again at this type of level, and something could snap at any moment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:45 - Find The Best Train4:37 - Charts Vs. Fundamentals7:05 - Perspective with Ratios8:54 - SPX Priced in Oil17:50 - Finding Correlations19:50 - Purchasing Power29:30 - Lebanon Currency33:05 - Inflation Adj. Yields39:35 - Debt Saturation Chart47:00 - Breadding Out47:23 - Gold, Silver Ratio48:39 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Finding the clues in the charts from the price action.SPX Priced in oil and the possible outlook for equity markets.Purchasing power appears to have passed a key turning point.Why gold is at or near the bottom and why something key is about to break.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
Tom welcomes Warren Pies to the show. Warren is cofounder of 3Fourteen Research.
Warren explains how they attempted to map out how bear market rally's typically behave. These rallies have to fail and head below previous lows. In our current case, that would be, 3066 on the S&P 500. They examined forty-nine historic rallies, and six of them we're larger than today. We're in fairly rare territory. Usually, when we see these types of moves, the bear market is almost over. However, the difference this time is we may be facing a recession and the Fed seems likely to raise rates further. This should give investors caution.
Bond markets have been signalling for some time that inflation will be transitory. Yield curve inversions are often correlated with a coming recession. The Fed may be on the verge of making a policy mistake.
Their model for determining future recessions is worsening. They use a number of factors including various credit spreads, rate of change, equity market returns, and analysis of the yield curve. Most of the yield curves are inverting, and inversions often signal a recession in 16 to 24 months.
He discusses their outlook for inflation and why housing is likely to slowly burn higher. Energy and housing components are sixty percent of the CPI. Food inflation is also a factor.
The high costs of refined petroleum products like gasoline is affecting consumers, but most have been fairly flush with cash.
The playbook we saw with Covid could become a policy tool for managing global energy requirements. Governments may choose to balance shortfalls with energy with similar lockdowns.
Russia will have a hard time transitioning from Western to Eastern buyers. This is due to a lack of infrastructure, pipelines, and shipping options. Much of the world is going to face further energy shortages.
They have conducted some analysis of peak hydrocarbon usage. They believe demand will continue to grown until at least 2040. We can only electrify and expand the grid so quickly. This transition has been haphazardly organized. Bottom line, the era of cheap oil appears to be over, which will continue to pressure inflation.
Warren discusses the key features of their gold model, which helps them determine good entry and exit points.
He discusses why they recommend large cap Canadian oil producers.
Lastly, Warren outlines where inflation will head over the short, medium, and long term. Stocks and bonds have become more correlated than many investors expect. Bonds may no longer be a safe haven, and the coming years are likely to be more difficult.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Bear Market Rallies4:46 - Rate Hikes Priced In?7:30 - Bond Markets8:56 - Recession Model11:26 - Recession Counterpoints16:20 - Inflation Drivers19:26 - Energy & Consumers22:20 - Energy Supply & Prices27:35 - Oil Reserve Releases29:48 - Energy Backwardation33:58 - China, Oil, & Copper36:20 - Peak Energy Analysis39:10 - ESG & Capital Allocation41:50 - Gold Model45:45 - Energy Market Plays49:14 - Investing in Miners51:36 - Inflation Outlook57:10 - Commodities Bull Market59:20 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Examining past bear market rallies for context with today's markets.Their recession model and why it's increasingly worsening.Global energy demand and why continued demand growth in petroleum is almost certain.There inflation models and problems with the bond market as a safe haven.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/warrenpiesTwitter: https://twitter.com/3F_ResearchWebsite: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/
Before founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research's Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm's commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets.
Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show.
Investors seem to be having problems understanding the current economy and inflation. Those in charge are arguing that this past month had no inflation. The reality is that month over month figures may be indicating that inflation has peaked. This may cause the Fed may to be less hawkish than most investors are expecting.
Kevin argues that bond markets are assessing the economy and the possibility of a recession differently than stocks. Kevin cautions against selling stocks at this point. Over the long-term, stock markets should reflect the economy, but over shorter periods they can get ahead of themselves.
Kevin is more of a bull on the real economy because of our past monetary policy. We've forgotten that fiscal policy can provide some benefits to the economy.
Inflation can't be fixed by spending more on fiscal policies. He expects inflation to continue for at least a decade, and this will be a big factor that investors will want to consider.
He's more concerned with bonds than the stock market. Should the Fed decide they don't need to reduce growth, then we could see a huge shift away from bonds. We could have a 1987 style setup with bonds triggering a crash. Bonds aren't providing the safety hedge that they did historically. The monetary environment is shifting rapidly, and investors may be overlooking this looming issue.
Kevin contrasts the differences between the Canadian and U.S. housing markets. Canada appears to be contracting, but the United States could see higher prices.
He believes the only way the Fed is cutting over the next year is if something critical breaks.
Gold has a role to play as a way of mitigating risk and hedging low real rates. Gold has suffered for the last few months because of Fed policy on rates and the dollar's rise.
Lastly, he outlines why this coming inflationary decade may be an opportunity for carefully positioned investors.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Markets & CPI2:08 - A Turning Point?6:24 - Stocks & Growth9:36 - Bearish Sentiment12:50 - Pandora's Box16:25 - Stimulus & Recovery18:24 - More Bond Concerns25:20 - Counterpoints30:04 - Housing Bubbles?32:52 - Tech Equities Sell-Off35:08 - Crypto Thoughts37:00 - Fed Objectives41:55 - Supply Chains45:37 - Inflationary Opportunity?51:54 - Golds Role & Doom59:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Inflation outlook and the market's expectation of a recession.Why bond markets are carrying considerable risk.Differences between the Canadian and U.S. housing markets.Golds role of mitigating risk, and it's ability to hedge rates.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.com
Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."
Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.
Tom welcomes back an absolute icon to the show, Bill Holter of JSMineset. Bill discusses how the credit markets are smarter than equities. At some point, there will be sovereign risk problems, which will impact premiums on yields. The Fed balance sheet is supposed to be shrinking, but that requires someone to want to buy these assets.
The ECB is forced to sell good credit to buy poorer debt like Italy's. The problems today are larger than any one central bank. Currencies globally are all based on credit. Once credit starts to collapse, you will see currencies fail. That process can turn into hyperinflation.
We're seeing real estate prices decline in many countries including China and people are having problems paying mortgages. Historically, whenever the Fed tries to raise rates, they've broken something in the system. Higher rates expose the weak debts in the system.
Money velocity is just now showing signs of life after twenty plus years of decline. This means some people now consider cash to be risky. People should consider buying what they may need over the next couple of years now.
Russia is a nation operating with low debt, while the United States reached "Banana Republic" levels of debt a while ago. The sanction's plan was to bankrupt Russia, but that immediately failed as the Ruble was bought up.
The BRICS movement towards new currencies backed by commodities means a much weaker West. The West is far behind in real growth and manufacturing. We're going to see bank runs on a huge scale.
Metals sentiment continues to be poor, however on a positive note, the supply appears to be drying up. Premiums are higher, and it's difficult to make large orders without waiting a month for delivery.
He believes the nation will be divided even further due to the FBI raid on Trump's residence. Much of the actions of the left are only causing further loss of confidence in the system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - The Credit Markets3:19 - Italian Debt & ECB5:28 - What Breaks First?6:58 - Money Velocity Matters8:45 - Redefining Confidence10:17 - Spending & Inflation13:44 - Ruble & the Dollar16:37 - More IRS Agents17:57 - BRICS+ Currency & Gold20:39 - Deglobalization22:12 - Metals Sentiment25:33 - Interesting Times28:39 - Treasuries & China34:37 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Credit markets and their connection to currencies.Money velocity and the increasing risks of hyperinflation.Western countries dependence on debt compared with the BRICS.Metals sentiment and why metals supplies appear to be drying up.
Guest Links:
Guest Links:Website: https://www.jsmineset.comEmail: bholter@hotmail.comFacebook: https://facebook.com/groups/jsmineset/
Bill Holter writes and is partners with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to the management of paper assets, as he foresaw the Great Financial crisis coming. In retirement, he and his family moved to Costa Rica, where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. He was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.
Bill has retained a working relationship with Miles Franklin and can help with your precious metals needs, including transacting, shipping, storage, and even safe deposit boxes in non-bank vault facilities.
Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove, President of Commerce Resources.
Editor's Note: Apologies for the number of flips back and forth, Zoom seems to have developed a case of Tourette Syndrome. Listening may be preferable on this one, although you do get extra screen time with Tom. :)
Christopher discusses the demand for rare earths and where the market is at currently. We've seen prices more than double since July 2020. There are four core rare earths used in manufacturing permanent magnets, and those have double or triple over the last decade. There is a huge list of products where these metals are essential. They are a group of seventeen different metals that are needed globally.
Magnets are needed in everything from leaf blowers to your electric toothbrush. Demand is expected to rise with electric vehicle sales.
Chris discusses the development of new production facilities around the world because of the strategic nature of these resources. Canada is taking a fairly keen interest in developing these metals and the opportunities in this sector. Australia appears to be a major interest in developing and helping finance these types of projects.
The biggest issues with rare earths are the economic viability of the projects and difficulties in obtaining adequate financing. Quality of the final product is key with these metals. He believes that rare earths represent a sizeable opportunity.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Rare Earth Rundown3:30 - Rare Earth Chart8:10 - Future Supply12:10 - Ukraine & Russia17:12 - Rare Earth Development25:37 - Deposit Differences27:45 - Biggest Obstacles30:10 - Processing Economics32:29 - Opportunity34:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The basics of rare earth metals and pricing and production.Supply issues and some governments are assisting the mining industry.Types of deposits and the difficulty of producing these metals.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescceWebsite: https://commerceresources.com/
Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis. So many people assume gold isn't doing well, but gold is normally poorly correlated with commodities. Gold tends to have much longer bull markets. Commodities tend to chase gold. Major asset managers around the world are telling investors to focus on the value of money because central banks are creating inflation. Gold is reflecting the decline in the value of dollars, it's a good hedge against monetary degradation.
Micheal is convinced that we are in a counter trend rally within a bear market. The trend down will resume. Gold is not breaking down, instead, it's in a quiet accumulation phase. The largest stock market bubble in U.S. history is breaking
Most bear markets with U.S. equities are gradual and don't suddenly drop. The 1987 crash and crash of March 2020 didn't lead to a bear market, but quickly rallied higher. It can take a couple of years for a bear market to play out and reach a bottom. Gold outperformed equities from 2008 to 2011. Gold is looking quite favorable.
Michael explains the importance of momentum, as it is more useful than just evaluating price structure.
He breaks down his thoughts on silver and how it compares with gold. A ceiling has formed on the momentum chart and should we punch through that then we may begin to outperform gold. Silver may lead gold to the upside.
The assumptions today about dollar strength may be misguided. He notes that a breakdown in the dollar could catch many investors surprised.
Michael believes the idea of a global reserve currency is rapidly on its way out. It will be replaced by several currencies, and probably some of will become gold backed.
He doesn't believe the risk reward ratio with crude or natural gas is good at the moment. We've had a good run with both, but we need to see momentum hold support for a while. Natural gas has been a leader, but it may not be the place to be at the moment. Having exposure to European markets may be a different scenario.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Commodities & Gold13:57 - Timeframes & Analysis16:07 - Gold During Panics28:44 - Momentum Vs. Price34:22 - Silver Outlook43:55 - Dollar Trends52:14 - Crude & Natural Gas1:02:39 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why gold does not correlate well with the other commodities.The current counter trend rally and why the bear market will resume.Importance of momentum indicators over just price.Outlook for silver, energy, the dollar and the future of currencies.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven podcast, to the show. Chris as usual lets us know how he really feels about many important issues. A recent Federal Reserve report indicates that China was trying to infiltrate that organization. China wants to challenge the dollar and grow as a global economic superpower. China and Russia continue to dedollarize while stockpiling gold. The BRICS have announced their intention to create their own global reserve currency.
Chris believes China has decided they want Taiwan, and they have a very long-term approach.
We've seen two negative GDP prints, but those in charge are now changing the definitions. The White House and the Fed have run out of variables to mess with, and they're not getting the numbers they want. GDP is one of the last bastions of common-sense leftover from Austrian Economic thought.
Once the rate hike truly makes it through the system, there will be significant shockwaves. There won't be much warning and things will accelerate rapidly. Expect shocks to the credit market that will surprise many. The Titanic has already hit the iceberg and everyone is in denial.
It will be interesting to see what causes Powell to finally pivot. Don't be fooled and think that everything is fine because it isn't.
There is no good reason to not believe in golds future. It's soon going to be the key globally. We're going to see a rush to buy gold unlike anything we've seen. Leverage with the miners will be off the chart. The strength in the dollar will not last. That's when we'll see gold explode and never come back.
It was clear that companies doing crypto lending we're taking on enormous risks. If you see offers for 10% plus yields, then you're almost certainly looking at a Ponzi. Which is what we saw with Celsius. Other firms have also blown up, and it seems like there has to be more deleveraging to come. We still have Tether failing to produce an actual audit, and everyone seems skeptical. Until we get more truth and Michael Saylor is sweating in the hot seat, we may not have hit the bottom. Who knows if Bitcoin is cheap, how does one even judge it on fundamentals?
Chris discusses why the courts may not be that amused with Elon, and why he might not be able to back out.
Lastly, Tom and Chris discuss the importance of being objective and getting a rounded view of economics and politics. Integrity and good faith is more important than just being told what you want to hear. We've seen a lot of blatant disinformation campaigns driven from a state level through the media.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Geopolitics, espionage, and economic supremacy.Why a credit crisis is coming and gold will take off.Finding the truth out by seeking opinions and other perspectives.The crypto markets still need to purge themselves.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:07 - China, Espionage, & the U.S.12:17 - Economic Mutual Spying?15:57 - Hiding Problems29:13 - Economic Screwing31:30 - Fed Dorito Theory39:12 - Faith in Metals44:09 - Gold is Gonna Go!48:25 - Gold & Inflation51:59 - Enormous Crypto Risk?56:57 - Saylor Carried Out?59:30 - The Twitter 'Deal'1:04:12 - Cybersecurity Sector?1:16:18 - Objectivity & Analysis1:27:41 - And Saylor Is Out1:29:22 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast.
Tom welcomes Chris, founder of The Technical Traders, back to the show. Chris discusses how we're seeing some interesting price action, but we're likely at the complacency stage of a bear market. We're seeing interest return to the markets and some buying. Growth stocks are starting to come back to life. However, investors should be ready for another big leg down, as things could get uglier. Institutions are still being cautious. Markets seem like they need further correction.
Cash can be one of the best positions, you don't always need to be in a trade. When things get chaotic, moving to something like the dollar index or even just cash can be optimal.
We could still be a year out before gold and the miners make their next big move up. There is strong support around the $1680 level. Hopefully, gold finds its legs and heads back towards $2000. Silver tends to be much more volatile, as we've been seeing.
Chris discusses where we are at in the commodity cycle. They will continue the rally once the dollar rolls over. It's likely by then the stock markets will have bottomed out.
If big money is flowing into utilities or consumer staples, that can indicate a collapse. For the short term, he remains bullish on stocks, but it's important to carefully monitor the markets. Things could change quickly, and you won't want to be holding stocks. Chris explains why big dividend stocks are also dangerous in bear markets.
He explains the benefits of properly positioning trades and using stops in the most effective way. Lastly, he discusses Technical Trader's Growth Strategy.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Sentiment Reversal?4:14 - Growth Stocks5:53 - The Fed & Money Flow10:54 - A Bigger Bear?12:57 - BAN List & Emotion15:35 - Cycles & Analysis18:48 - DXY & Equity Volatility20:27 - Gold Outlook & SILJ23:49 - Metal Support Levels27:12 - Commodity Complex29:25 - Stock S&P Barometer33:29 - Managing Trades37:18 - Growth Strategy40:48 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Recent market activity and why the bear market isn't over.Why moving to cash or trading the DXY is advantageous.Importance of properly positioning trades and taking advantage of stops.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheTechTradersWebsite: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/
Chris Vermeulen is the Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. Chris has been involved in the markets since 1997. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and author.
Years of research, trading, and helping individual traders worldwide have taught him that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing. They struggle to execute trades systematically for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders, and his mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.
He has also been on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine and featured in Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven, The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest, and dozens of other financial websites.
As part of our series on Geology Tom welcomes Robert Quartermain to the show. Bob explains his early background in computer science, living in the maritime provinces. His experience at Baker Lake, Northern Canada with a survey crew lead him to take up geology in university.
He discusses his early career, which gained experience working with various mines. He has helped make discoveries in many locales around the world, including some exciting initial discoveries.
Furthermore, he discusses reinvigorating Silver Standard now known as SSR mining thanks to Rick Rule and Jim Blanchard. From 1992, they acquired old projects for pennies on the dollar, creating a large bank of silver properties. He explains how that collaboration lead to several big discoveries which became successes for their shareholders.
It's important to keep administrative costs low while putting the money into the ground to make the discoveries. This way, you're attractive to those with the capital. If you have good geology, good potential, then you can always raise capital.
He explains the differences between mining silver and gold. Producing silver is more difficult as it usually requires off-site processing.
Historically, mining wasn't often unkind to the environment, but today most operations have a minimal impact. Mining can create huge value from a relatively small area of land. ESG is helpful in leveling the playing field and can help insure a return to shareholders. North American mining companies tend to bring better stewardship to development around the world.
His preference is to work in British Columbia. You want an area where there is respect for the rule of law. Bob has worked in Russia, Africa, Haiti, Latin American and the Middle East. It's important to have a safe and effective regulatory environment where you can build up a mine with minimal risk. This is also important for investors, who should consider the potential risks. It's nice to be able to work in your own backyard and come home.
He focuses on investing in the people behind companies with superior track records. There are optimal times when you may want to invest on dips, and then there are opportune times when you may want to exit a position. Lastly, he provides some tips for what investments to avoid in the mining industry.
Talking Points from this Episode
Robert's background and why he became a geologist.Building up Silver Standard with Rick Rule and Jim Blanchard.Importance of ESG, jurisdiction and why he prefers Canada.Tips and caveats when investing in mining companies.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - His Background5:45 - Mentors & Analysis8:54 - Exciting Career Times?12:37 - Discovery to Production14:42 - Younger Generations18:15 - Silver Standard24:47 - Raising Capital29:26 - Takeovers & Mergers34:04 - Silver Vs. Gold Mining38:05 - ESG & Recycling44:15 - Preferred Jurisdictions47:12 - China, India, & Gold49:30 - Energy & Mine Margins52:34 - Peak Gold & Discovery55:36 - New Production & ESG58:23 - Investor Optimal Timing1:02:18 - Investing Red Flags1:04:08 - Resource Importance1:05:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://dakotagoldcorp.comWebsite: https://panthera.orgWebsite: https://arkfoundation.ca
Robert A. Quartermain Dr. Quartermain serves as a Director of Dakota Gold and was most recently Executive Chairman of Pretium Resources Inc., which he founded in October 2010. Before Pretium, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Silver Standard Resources Inc. (now SSR Mining Inc.) for 25 years from 1985-2010. Dr. Quartermain holds a Bachelor of Science from the University of New Brunswick, a Master of Science from Queen's University, his Professional Geoscience certification from the Engineers and Geoscientists BC and Honorary Doctor of Science from the University of New Brunswick. In addition to his focus on Dakota Gold, Dr. Quartermain has a number of education, wildlife and social justice philanthropic interests ...
Tom welcomes Robert Moriarty back to the program. Bob discusses the capital destruction that has occurred within both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. He believes crypto is analogous to beanie babies because of the amount of different currencies.
Interference in the markets is creating more problems than if the government and Fed had done nothing at all. Weak banks and businesses deserve to fail, but instead we keep moving the goal posts and continue the bad policies. The Fed has painted themselves into a corner and is now putting gasoline onto the fire. We've created forty percent of new money in the past couple of years, and that increase in money supply is causing higher prices. If they raise rates another percent, they will blow up the stock market. They can either crash markets or create hyperinflation. Both are bad choices. We're going to see deflation, then hyperinflation.
The debt-based system is ending, but the West hasn't recognized it yet. Economic power will shift eastwards. Most investors in equity market participants are quite clueless and have never experienced a real market crash.
Sanctions on Russia have only impacted every country but Russia. Europe is essentially committing suicide. The Ruble after the initial drop strengthened massively, even outperforming the dollar's recent performance. The best currency in the world this year has been the Russian Ruble. If sanctions aren't working, why don't they consider eliminating them instead of begging Putin for gas.
He explains why he hates all governments equally. Governments are run by sociopaths who want power. We see this in the Europe, Netherlands and Canada where during a food crisis they are telling farmers they can't grow food. All of which seems to go back to the World Economic Forum. They are intentionally destroying the world economy, but people are waking up. We're in the middle of a giant shift, but one that will surprise the globalists. The choice is freedom or totalitarianism, which we witnessed with the Truckers in Canada.
Bob explains the ineffectiveness of the recent health policies and why the cure is worse than the disease. The idea that children are vulnerable to the disease is completely laughable. What is being done is a war crime. The bigger the organization, the worse it gets, and we see this with the abject stupidity like in the European Union.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Capital Destruction3:09 - Fed and Bonds8:08 - Fed Pivot?11:24 - Honest Money14:53 - Metals Sentiment18:13 - Sanction Effects21:44 - Without Rulers24:09 - The 4th Turning25:55 - Ukraine & NATO29:14 - Escalation Risk32:59 - Lockdowns & Control41:06 - Reality Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed and government incompetence is only fueling the economic fires.Gold's true purpose, that of keeping government accountable.The problems in Europe and the complete failure of sanctions.Dangers from the sociopaths in charge of government.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.
This is an edited recording of our live Twitter Spaces event from July 19, 2022. Philip Newman from Metals Focus joins us to discuss the precious metals markets and the perspective their in-depth reports bring. Tavi Costa brings some interesting questions for Phillip and Steve St. Angelo joins us for a lengthy discussion on energy scarcity. Lastly, we take a number of listener questions.
Thanks goes to Steve for arranging this informative discussion with Philip.
Follow our Twitter to find out when the next live stream space will occur. Be a part of the conversation!
Philip Newman - Managing Director & Founder of Metals FocusWorld Silver SurveyTwitter: https://twitter.com/philipnewman100Website: https://metalsfocus.com
Steve St. Angelo - Independent Researcher and Publisher of the SRSrocco ReportWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Tavi Costa - Portfolio Manager at Crescat CapitalTwitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCostaTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalWebsite: https://crescat.net
Jim Hunter - Registered Commodity Broker with AllendaleTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Tom welcomes an interesting new guest, Parallel Mike. Mike is the host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares finance, geopolitics and personal liberty content.
We're coming to the end of a long-term currency cycle which dates back to the 1500s. These cycles last around a hundred years, and we're witnessing the problems in the current monetary system. When new cycles begin to end, we typically see periods of unrest internally and external. Often there are global wars, and we see the potential of that now.
The current system is one with enormous debt, as a result, there is a desire to tie the system to commodities. In order for a new system to replace the old it must be appealing. The old system will do whatever it can to maintain its power. The coming system will be good for precious metals and other commodities.
The U.S. has a big advantage due to it's reserve currency status. They can leverage that power to levy sanctions, block countries from transacting, or as we seen recently, freeze reserves. Venezuela is an example of such a country. Whenever a country proposes an alternative approach to currency or utilizing gold, we often see a military intervention shortly afterwards. The debt bubble is a time bomb waiting to happen.
He discusses the key participants in the BRICS and their approach to working cooperatively. Combined, they do represent a significant power base of global trade. Rising superpowers like China have no interest in maintaining the existing dollar system.
Mike discusses economic Sergay Glazyev and his role in Russia's financial policies. He is a key architect of a new economic system and, interestingly, one of the first Russian Citizens sanctioned by the United States. Some of Sergay's writings are quite eye-opening.
The BRICS will be creating new rating systems built into the system. One key aspect is a default on the old system won't impact their ratings in the new system. This is a potential way out for many nations around the world.
Eventually, Europe is going to need commodities to trade with the other nations in the new system. They will need something of value, especially if the systems becomes fully bifurcated.
Lastly, he discusses the risks of relying on any western systems. Examples include the medical system and energy availability in Europe. Start worrying and act around your energy, food, and water supply needs. Consider what will be important in the coming financial system.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The hundred-year currency cycle coming to an end.Why the next system will have to be tied to commodities.The role of the BRICS and why you need to be prepared for what's coming.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Fiat Systems & Cycles2:48 - Commodities & Currencies4:37 - Dollar Weaponization8:16 - A New Standard BRICS+12:19 - Sergay Glazyev14:42 - Transitioning Systems18:38 - Central Banks & Gold22:14 - Standards & Valuing Gold28:07 - Dominate or Cooperate?30:26 - Global Conflict Trigger?33:32 - The Great Upheaval37:17 - Dystopian Politics39:46 - Protecting Yourself46:05 - Timelines & Opportunity51:16 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYt8UcqG2wvkehnmiF_9AkwTwitter: https://twitter.com/parallel_mike
Mike is a precious metal's investor, organic farmer and host of the Parallel Systems Broadcast on YouTube where he shares content relating to finance, geopolitics and personal liberty.
Tom welcomes Jim Welsh to the show. Jim explains his approach to market analysis, which combines technical with macro forecasting.
Jim discusses how monetary policy has changed over his career and the consequences of negative real rates and quantitative easing. There has been more and more accommodation by the Fed. Most investors today have never experienced a period of high inflation. Further, bonds and equities are now both selling off, which has surprised many.
Since 1981 the use of fiscal and monetary policy to limit economic slowdowns has created unintended consequences of not properly purging the economic system. The Fed has overplayed its hand and is now cornered. Every unit of debt added today is increasingly less beneficial to growth. Debts are now growing faster than GDP, and money velocity has been declining since the mid-90s. This is why we're setting up for a major secular bear market.
Many people believe we are in a recession, but the first quarter demand was good. Consumer finances remain strong and people have refinanced mortgages at lower rates. The majority of consumers are in a reasonable position to withstand some inflation. We're not entering a recession yet, but perhaps next year once savings have eroded.
Jim shows long-term charts that demonstrate the unusual nature of the recent inflation cycle. We're now seeing good prices decline somewhat, while costs of services have begun to rise. Inflation is affecting a considerable section of the CPI metrics, which probably means a tough time to get below five percent. The odds of the Fed preventing a recession seems low.
Wrong chart was inserted during the discussion on the S&P. Below is the correct chart.
Gold has done very well for mitigating inflation, but the dollar has created some big headwinds. Gold is likely going to rally toward 1850. We could be looking at a re-test of the highs at some point.
Europe is facing a cold winter, and it will be interesting to see what happens to Germany's industry, which is hungry for energy. A recession for Europe is certain given all the dynamics. The dollar is probably approaching a top.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The negative impacts of controlled rates and quantitative easing.Why we're not in a recession yet, likely next year.Thoughts on the labor market and overall consumer finance sentiment.His outlook for gold, the dollar, and indoor thermometers in Europe this winter.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Technicals + Macro2:20 - Time & Monetary Policy6:30 - Q.E. & Investment Risk9:20 - Fed Losing Control16:55 - Recession & The Charts21:38 - Consumer Strength & Credit26:15 - Labor Market Tightness36:28 - Job Growth Slowing40:33 - Recession Indicators43:49 - Fed Success Rate48:43 - The Neutral Zone54:20 - Fed's Breaking Point?56:52 - Inflation History59:32 - Recession Odds1:06:00 - Inflation Relief1:07:59 - Treasury ETF TLT1:10:27 - S&P Chart Thoughts1:13:35 - Gold Outlook1:17:35 - The Dollar & Europe1:20:10 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://macrotides.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JimWelshMacroE-Mail - Offer: jimwelshmacro@gmail.com
Jim Welsh is a student of the financial markets and a seasoned veteran of investing with forty years of portfolio management experience, including security research & analysis, model building, portfolio construction, asset allocation, and is a specialist in technical analysis and macroeconomics. Did we mention he is also an all-around good guy?
As a nationally recognized financial expert, Jim has been quoted in Barrons, the San Diego Union-Tribune, Consensus, the Big Picture, Econintersect, and Market Views. Mr. Welsh has been interviewed on Fox Business News and CNBC, CBS radio and given more than 3,000 interviews on TV, radio, and internet business shows since 1988.
An example of Welsh's impressive market calls includes the major sell-off in world markets in 2007. That year,
Tom welcomes a new guest, David Hay, to the show. David is a long-time investor and author. He recently released his book "Bubble 3.0" which is a warning about the problems inherent in the financial system. The Fed being the main culprit for bubble creation, and such bubbles always get wrecked. The Fed has kept rates at great depression levels despite reasonable economic activity. He recalls not being negative enough during 2005 regarding the housing market, which blew up. David believes this time around will be similar and things will get quite bad.
We've had a wealth wipe out on par with the end of the tech bubble. Many stocks are down around seventy to ninety percent, but this time people are losing in stocks and bonds. People believe there will be another big rally, but he doesn't see it soon. The environment of zero and negative interest rates is crazy, and we may have seen peak insanity.
Q.E. wasn't inflationary due to a corresponding drop in money velocity. However, during covid, the money supply increased by forty percent and the government did trillions in direct fiscal policy. This money flooded the system. Imagine the inflation had the build back program been funded.
Preventing interest rates from being set in the open market is a form of price control, and that comes with many unintended consequences. The Fed is on a warpath to get interest rates to 3.5 percent and control inflation. Paul Volker could do it because the GDP was much higher in the 80s. Today, rates in real terms we are still at negative two percent. Powell has a very difficult path ahead of him.
We're not quite in a recession yet due to various base effects, but it will be hard however to avoid one.
The next Fed pivot will likely see everyone jump back into the markets on good news. Inflation is likely to be with us for some time, and we will continue to see a commodity bull market. Especially, with the demand for electrification in vehicles. Copper prices doubled, but we never saw any new mines open as a result. We're in the first period where existing energy is being replaced with less effective solutions.
The Fed can't print copper, but they can set expectations and try to destroy demand. He believes earnings estimates are too high, and those targets will be missed.
Banks are reporting fairly good activity at the consumer level, but things are likely to get harder. We're going to see another period with exploding deficits, and eventually the Fed will have to monetize again.
He discusses the difficulty in picking miners and why for most investors the ETF indexes might be better.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Why the Fed is the cause of all bubbles.Fed's attempts to control inflation via stifling demand.The unintended consequences of controlling interest rates.Picking miners and the impact of green policy on energy.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:06 - Peak Insanity6:46 - Inflation & Q.E.10:40 - Rate Controls13:48 - Fed & Politics16:32 - Recession Now?18:48 - Fed Pivot?25:02 - Commodity Supercycle29:10 - Lending Standards33:45 - Social Security34:51 - Treasuries & Russia36:18 - Deglobalization37:48 - Environment & Energy42:58 - GreenFlation & Oil49:03 - EROI Concerns51:21 - Algos & Energy Equities53:58 - View on Gold & Fiat57:30 - Finding Miners1:00:06 - Canada & Australia1:01:20 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:Website: https://http://evergreengavekal.com/Substack: https://haymaker.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0
David Hay is a longtime investment advisor and financial author from Bellevue, Washington. He and his wife, Mindy, now split their time between the Northwest, Southern California, and a few places in between (their two dogs love long road trips). They have six grandchildren, three of who live on the West Coast and three on the East Coast. Dave is desperately hoping for a better world for his grandchildren to grow up in than the one we have right now.
Tom welcomes Vincent Lanci back to the show. Vincent discusses the position of J.P. Mogan and Citibank, who hold a large gold derivative position. They've changed their balance sheet accounting methodology due to Basel III rules. Banks are going to take advantage of different countries regulations to arbitrage. The banks are in the same condition they we're in previously. The gold dealer market has become smaller, and regulators seem happy to herd these derivatives into one large bucket. Smaller banks have exited out of the market.
In light of what has happened with nickel at the LME and the government will do whatever necessary to protect the major banks. As Keith Wiener says, "Gold is not like other commodities because it is not consumed. All the gold ever mined remains, still exists. It's not destroyed and doesn't become irretrievable."
Gold is a useless item, which is why it's a great store of value. Money, including fiat, has no real practical purpose. At the central bank level, gold remains money unless we find a broad industrial use for it.
Vincent explains why the BRICS countries are looking for ways to improve their economies with a commodity backed currency basket. China and Russia have been sanctioned and are looking for alternatives to the dollar. At some level, gold will need to be remonetized for trade at the country level.
The Fed is likely to back off soon. We may already be nearing a breaking point. Between now and November if inflation remains in the headlines then they will continue to raise rates. Once we see recession concerns as mainstream news, then they will back off.
Tom explains Vincent's recent most about a downward economic spiral caused by economists and governments attempts to resolve problems. We won't be able to recover until there is major pain. Those in charge will have to admit the current system is unfixable. Things have to change.
Tom and Vincent discuss what it would take to get back to normal and why we're likely going lower first. The jenga pyramid is unstable and parts of the economy are faltering. Policies around energy and agriculture are exacerbating the situation. Vincent explains why all famines are created by men and the multiplier effect around crop shortages. These will further compound effects, and basically, we are looking at disaster.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Gold Derivatives4:46 - Gold, Leverage, & Bank Risk8:10 - Systemic Risks & Bail-Outs9:45 - Gold is Useless21:45 - Gold Being Remonetized23:30 - Russia Gold & Ruble27:19 - BRICS+ Basket31:47 - Fed's Path Forward39:14 - Unemployment Numbers?41:00 - The Downward Spiral47:30 - Best-Case Scenario?51:36 - Compounding Effects55:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Basel III effects on derivative positions of major banks and gold dealers.Government and the Fed will do whatever it takes to protect the big banks.Why sanctions on some BRICS nations are accelerating alternative economic systems.A likely scenario for further inflationary spirals and disastrous stimulus attempts.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/VlanciPicturesWebsite: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ZeroHedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfcLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/
Vincent Lanci is the Owner and Founder of Echobay Partners LLC. and is a regular contributor on ZeroHedge.
In 2018 Vince was honored to be a part of Market Wizard Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project as precious metals and Option expert. In addition, in 2017, Mr. Lanci and Professor Robert Biolsi co-authored Forecasting Oil and Natural Gas Volatility for UCONN.
From 2004-2008, Mr. Lanci was Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC, Echobay's predecessor, where he ran the long-short and vol-arb portfolios for CiS's parent fund and generated $103MM during that time.
From 1993-2003, Vince owned and operated Berard Capital LLC option market makers. In 2000,
Tom welcomes back, Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith discusses the recent "Uganda gold discovery" and all the anti-gold people believe it's going to collapse the price. Even if it's true, no one is going to mine anything below the cost of production. All the gold ever mined in history is still exists, and all of it gets recycled. Gold produced doesn't really go away.
Keith explains how backwardation works in commodities. It means if you have crude oil in storage, you could sell it today for delivery in the future. It's a sign that we have scarcity in the market.
Gold serves as an excellent benchmark for measuring your wealth in ounces instead of dollars. It's difficult measuring wealth in currencies that consistently shrink.
Keith argues the dollar doesn't determine its value strictly from the quantity that exists. If that was the case, the dollar wouldn't be worth much today.
Gold has strength as money because it's not volatile, and real money should be boring. If it's exciting, the price fluctuates enormously, but that makes it the opposite of money. We see that with antique cars, paintings, real estate, and crypto. Volatility is due to the demand and the ratio of buyers to sellers. The smaller the market/float the more volatile it will tend to be and Bitcoin is not an exception.
Silver has an industrial component, but it's also useful because it's a monetary metal. It's strongly correlated with gold. Gold is more useful for carrying value over distances, while the average wage earner has often been paid in silver.
Money is not based in free markets. All monetary systems are regulated and fixed by governments.
Falling interest rates creates many ill effects. Hiking rates won't increase the supply of goods, but will cause higher prices.
Economists often gets things backwards when it comes to real monetary theory. The central planners prefer that consumers don't understand the basics of monetary systems. The socialists are basically consuming the cream off the top of the economy.
The purpose of a theory is to explain reality. So make sure your theories equate to reality and if they don't, you need a better one. If your explanation contradicts reality, your explanation has to go because reality isn't leaving.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - In Gold We Trust4:25 - Backwardation7:53 - Marginal Utility12:45 - Bitcoins Utility16:09 - Volatility21:18 - Silver Vs. Gold26:46 - 'Fixing' Things30:29 - Inflation Control33:53 - Backasswards38:27 - Better Theories43:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why the supply of gold is unlikely to have much effect on price.Golds usefulness as a benchmark to determine wealth.Modern economists have most everything backwards.The importance of having theories that directly correlate with reality.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realKeithWeinerWebsite: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner earned his Ph.D. from the (non-accredited) New Austrian School of Economics. He speaks worldwide about the failing dollar system and the need to rediscover the gold standard. To this end, He founded the Gold Standard Institute USA and Monetary Metals.
The former is a nonprofit focused on education and outreach. The latter makes it profitable to invest in the gold standard by paying gold interest on gold. Previously, Keith founded DiamondWare, a voice technology company that he sold to Nortel Networks in 2008.
Tom welcomes back Don Durrett Author, Investor & Owner of GoldStockData.com to the show.
Don is taken aback by the strength of the dollar. He focuses on predicting markets out about six months. Currently, he is most concerned about a rebound in the economy because that would affect gold. He wants to see $2500+ for gold, but that may require serious weakness in the economy. Everything depends on the effectiveness of the Fed's magic tricks.
We're in a correction inside the longer term bull market. So, long as we remain in the channel, we could rally by the end of the year. 2023 should be a good year for gold as metals will strengthen once the dollar pulls back.
The dollar is going to remain strong until the Fed pauses. It's just a matter of time until rates go down. He expects the Fed to pivot next year. September will be a critical month, and he expects another rate rise and a hike this month is all but certain. This will put further downward pressure on markets. Politically, they will be pressured to fight inflation.
Don discusses the countries joining the BRICS membership and how an alternate monetary system may evolve. Trump introduced tariffs against China, and Biden did not remove them. China is now moving towards Russia and India. A distinct split between west and east is developing.
For several reasons, Don believes the economy won't collapse, instead we will muddle through. At some point next year, inflation should fall to around five percent and likely remain in that range for some time.
Gold miners have higher margins, those that are primarily into silver. The risks will build the longer we stay under $20 in silver. Most can probably last six months, although some are break even at $25. There are quite a few silver mines that are currently losing money.
Lastly, Don discusses three approaches for re-investing back into the miners. He gives some price targets from where a major breakout seems likely.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Dollar & Wall Street4:44 - Gold Targets & Thoughts9:08 - Fed Reversal?15:57 - BRICS+ & China19:39 - Russia & Ukraine25:58 - Broken Politics34:04 - Debt & Confidence40:26 - Supply Inflation45:35 - Miners & Margins50:41 - Comex Transparency55:00 - Investor Strategies1:00:50 - Key Gold Driver1:01:50 - Wrap
Talking Points From This Episode
Dollar strength and the necessary catalysts for gold and miners.When the Fed will reverse and the need to control inflation.The miners and the risks of shutdowns should prices stay low for long.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University, Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Tom welcomes back Axel Merk to the show. Axel is the President and CIO of Merk Investments.
Axel discusses the correlations between real rates and gold. Gold is supposed to be an inflation hedge, but people get frustrated when it doesn't immediately respond to inflation predictions. Consumers are seeing the problems in their wallet at the gas pump. Real rates are useful for predicting the markets.
The Fed tells us what they want, but they don't explain how they plan to achieve their goals. Central banks often can't see the future because they rely on an idiotic backward looking framework. The Fed cares about bond markets. They aren't concerned about commodity prices. Ultimately, their goal is to keep the banks in business.
The Fed is focused on demand, but doesn't know how to handle supply shocks. The political reaction to supply shocks is to provide additional stimulus or price controls, which exacerbate the problem. Instead, they should encourage additional production, and that won't be fixed by taxing and bashing companies.
We're going to see volatile periods as people believe issues have been addressed only to see problems return in waves.
Axel discusses how gold is the clear benchmark for measuring currencies.
The Fed is petrified of a loss of market confidence; therefore they have to talk and possibly act tough.
We're in an environment where many things are out of balance. Tech companies have stopped hiring, but other sectors can't get skilled labor. Ultimately, labor shortages are inflationary.
Geopolitically, things seems to be fragmenting fairly rapidly. We could see a decline in security of the oceans and further conflict break out, which would also be inflationary. National interests globally are becoming quite complex.
The ECB is the only effective agency in Europe, and they are focused on green energy but don't appear concerned with inflation.
The dollar index is very biased toward the Euro. There are huge problems with energy policy in Europe, and now they are realizing that nuclear may be the only sustainable solution for the environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Gold & Real Rates7:00 - The Fed Message12:40 - Price Controls15:10 - Gold & Money Supply16:00 - Currencies & Gold17:00 - Gold Miners & Gold19:30 - Gold & CFTC Chart21:00 - Fed Pivot Catalysts?23:30 - Mortgage Rates25:30 - Peak Inflation?28:50 - Fed is Reactionary30:00 - Recession & Jobs35:30 - Geopolitical Factors40:10 - ECB Situation42:35 - Dollar Strength45:30 - Merk Fund47:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The correlations between real rates and gold.The Fed is unable to handle supply shocks and governments provide the wrong solutions.Globally, politics and diplomacy is becoming increasingly complex.European Union problems around energy and problems around green energy.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/AxelMerkWebsite: https://www.merkinvestments.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/axelmerk/detail/recent-activity/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/4ebpcaew
Axel Merk is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds.
Founder of the firm bearing his name, Merk is an expert on macro trends. He is a sought-after speaker, contributor, and author; Axel Merk's book, Sustainable Wealth, describes how the greater economic universe works, how it might affect your finances, and how to manage those finances to seek financial stability. Axel Merk holds a B.A. in Economics (magna cum laude) and an M.Sc. in Computer Science from Brown University.
Axel Merk founded Merk Investments in Switzerland in 1994; in 2001, he relocated the business to California. He has grown Merk Investments into an investment advisory firm offering investment funds and advisory services on liquid global markets, including domestic and international equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
Tom welcomes Lawrence Lepard back once again to discuss the markets, mining industry, and the fragile state of the economy.
Lawrence discusses the supposed massive discovery of gold in Uganda and why it's hype and absurd. It would have to be about a hundred times the richest mines in production today.
A high dollar encourages countries to find alternatives. We're living in a world of monetary chaos and enormous debt structures. ZIRP and NIRP have created enormous financial distortions which are only getting worse. We never imagined that money could get this cheap and markets could get so overvalued. The bubble has found a pin and everything is down twenty plus percent. If they don't pivot, we're looking at a major recession or depression because a Ponzi can't be tapered.
Markets are going to go to zero if Powell maintains his approach. We've seen 31 trillion in valuation loss worldwide in equities. We've wiped out one and half times total annual U.S. GDP in paper wealth in six months. Gold in comparison is only down six or seven percent over the past year. Gold is hanging in and is likely finding a base for the next leg up.
Gold and Bitcoin are non-state money alternatives. The Fed is trying to make the dollar more sound, and the next act this fall will see another big leg down in equities. Housing will continue to decline as mortgage rates climb. This fall, they will realize the economy is crumbling, and they will pivot. Then we will see gold and Bitcoin will go to the moon. They have to pivot, the only question is when.
The old world is gone, and we're not going back to two percent inflation. We may have reached peak house inflation as that market had gone parabolic. This environment will be very choppy. Those that control the economy, default policy will be to debase the currency.
We've had certain sector almost express hyperinflation over short time-frames. High inflation leads to hyperinflation.
We need nuclear power and a more sober approach to energy investment globally.
The Fed creates bubbles that naturally lead to busts, which can devastate the average person who is trying to make correct choices.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Uganda Finding Gold?5:43 - Fed & Dollar Strength17:40 - Hard vs Soft Money23:47 - Pause the Taper?28:07 - Inflation + Deflation31:54 - Defining Hyperinflation32:56 - Channeling Volcker36:07 - Sizing Positions38:04 - ESG & Energy41:20 - Nuclear & Geothermal44:35 - Roaring 20s Story47:50 - Sound Money Fix54:17 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The dollar and why the Fed is certain to pivot.Sound money alternatives and the next leg down in equities.Energy markets and the need for nuclear.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks.
Gareth discusses how institutions are often invested in the latest hot thing. They are now in oil, and we're likely to see further downside in oil. Funds are continually looking for the next thing to rotate into, and now we're back to tech stocks. Later in the cycle, we will get to a panic point. Sometimes being in cash is the best place.
The bottom will be in when we reach the acceptance step of the grief stages. When everyone is frustrated with markets, you will recognize the bottom.
We're currently hovering around the 2017 high for Bitcoin, and we will probably see 25k in a rebound. There are many similarities between crypto and the dot com bubble. We need to see 80-85% decline, as there are far too many other coins.
When everyone is calling a bottom usually means we haven't reached that point yet.
Gareth believes the Fed will change policy when unemployment rises significantly. The Fed will then be caught between inflation and unemployment, which will steadily worsen. We could quite possibly see a depression scenario by 2030.
Bond volatility is indicative of markets that are dealing with something serious. Keep in mind, when there is turmoil in markets, there is also opportunity.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Institutions & Oil4:00 - Grief Stages5:03 - Bitcoin10:56 - Fighting the Fed14:00 - Unemployment & Inflation15:19 - Bonds & Volatility17:23 - Fed Funds & Dollar19:28 - Euro Weakness20:40 - Turmoil & Opportunity21:38 - The Dollar & Gold23:18 - Trading24:13 - Russian Ruble25:20 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comBlog: https://inthemoneystocks.com/author/gareth/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/2008 Video: https://youtu.be/xxdP5xWIMkc
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together, and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
InTheMoneyStocks was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected. Gareth's goal was to help average investors beat the best hedge funds and traders on Wall Street by teaching them the methodology and giving them his trades as he took them LIVE!
Since 2007, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has maintained an over 80% success rate on swing trade alerts (verified 300+ trades per year) given to members in Verified Investing Alerts (formally named the Research Center) and a confirmed 94% success rate on day trades in the Live Day Trading Chat Room. He has given lectures at colleges around the United States, been asked to train hedge fund traders in other countries, and taught thousands of investors how to invest and trade profitably,
Tom welcomes back Chase Taylor to the show. Chase is a macro strategist and editor of Pinecone Macro Research.
Chase discusses the energy trade and why it may be getting a bit crowded. It's probably time to take some profits. Taking the opposite view of Jim Cramer is often a good contrarian play.
We're seeing demand destruction beginning for commodities as we enter into recession. We see that with copper at the moment.
It's important to understand the differences between prices of crude and refined products. Refinery capacity influences prices and the China has been growing its refinery capacities. He expects further declines in fuel prices and a decline in inflation prints.
His April newsletter was the most bearish, and it's clear the Fed wants equity and asset prices to decline. Nominal consumption numbers look acceptable, but people are using up savings. Moving forward, growth will be questionable until things bottom out.
Currently, demand destruction is occurring fastest in the housing market. We're seeing new home supply exploding. There are rapid price drops occurring in the market. Higher rates have an outsized effect on mortgage payments, and therefore fewer people can get loans. We're likely to see year-over-year declines in housing prices.
Lumber is a good indicator of how the economy and housing is performing.
Energy prices are likely to remain high for a few years. We're not seeing much investment into the oil sector, which will continue to add some inflationary pressure.
Consumers are finding everything more expensive, and most investors are probably hurting. This will change spending patterns at some point as their bank balance drops. The real pain could be this fall, when everyone realizes just how broke they are.
A large news event will be required for the dollar to begin to reverse. We're seeing a rather dire industry outlook for Europe and Germany in particular. Energy shortages could cause shutdowns of manufacturing. Europe has put themselves in a very difficult position with their energy policies.
Gold needs rates to stop moving higher and the Fed to at least pause. We also need the dollar to stop its rampage higher. The macro picture shows that this will all happen. Then the upside potential for gold is significant.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Energy, Prices, & Consensus6:00 - China Imports & Oil8:05 - Crude, Refining, & Inflation12:12 - Fed & Market Outlook15:09 - Fed Reversal & Labor20:30 - Housing Demand & Lumber29:45 - Will Inflation Return?34:36 - Inflationary Demographics38:10 - Defining Recession40:56 - Consumer Health44:00 - Safe Sectors?49:46 - Dollar Factors & Europe53:31 - Precious Metals Outlook55:58 - Turnaround Ideas57:30 - Cryptocurrencies1:01:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Energy trade may be getting crowded, take some profits.Equity prices are likely to continue declining.Housing market expectations and the impacts of higher rates.Thoughts on the dollar, precious metals and crypto.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.pineconemacro.com/Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/pineconemacroSubstack: https://pineconemacroresearch.substack.com/
Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.
Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on rocket propulsion.
Chase combines the analytical techniques he learned in the intelligence community with a unique focus on history and nature to create a disti...
This is an edited recording of our live Twitter Spaces event from June 28, 2022. This is an open discussion on silver and the precious metals markets. Participants included David Morgan, Bob Coleman, and Jim Hunter. We take answerer a number of listener questions. Follow our Twitter to find out when the next live stream space will occur. Be a part of the conversation!
Guest Links:
David MorganWebsite: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim HunterTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Tom welcomes Jaime Carrasco of Canaccord Genuity back to the show.
Jaime expected inflation as the marginal usefulness of excessive debt has declined. There is plenty of evidence from our debt-based system that a currency reset is coming. Governments taking on the debts of banks was evidence that some sort of currency reset is in the cards. Global trade patterns are rapidly shifting, and gold is part of that equation.
It's clear that taxpayers are placed on the hook for the actions and debts of government. Politics and central bankers are all interconnected. The rest of the world is beginning to understand why they need out of this system.
The long-term picture for commodities shows just how muted gold has become lately. We see that nearly everything has gone up in price. Gold should currently be sitting around three thousand based on inflation. We don't have the supply of commodities in the West to maintain low prices. Central banks remain buyers of gold while telling the public it's a pet rock.
The rest of the world has realized that Russia as a large energy provider is capable of backing its currency with oil. This will allow China, India and Russia to trade outside the dollar system. Much of the world, including Latin America, is lining up behind the China and India. Today, the bulk of copper produced in Chile is exported to China. Chile will likely switch soon to alternatives to the dollar. We're witnessing an enormous power shift towards the East.
The age of cheap stuff from Asia is now over. We're going to have to start building up our own industries. This will come with the cost of inflation, having to unwind all the debts.
When gold inevitably becomes unpegged, we will see a rapid change in the price. This is because of the huge imbalances, and there will be a rush to buy. This is why you should already be in the lifeboat and wait patiently.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Two Themes3:52 - Fed & Politics6:40 - Gold, Inflation & Ruble22:25 - Europe, Winter is Coming23:53 - Gold & Global Trust25:48 - Long-Term Planners28:30 - Reverse Repos31:22 - Equity Market Risks33:50 - Japanese Yen & Gold36:53 - Inflation Adjustments38:58 - Two Portfolios43:15 - 2022 Fall Outlook48:49 - Rebalancing Portfolios50:57 - PDAC Mining Conference53:46 - Gold Allocations56:38 - Canada & US Thoughts1:00:24 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Inflation and global trade patterns are rapidly shifting.Gold suppression and where price must eventually reach.Movement towards an Eastern currency system that is oil backed.Why the era of cheap foreign goods is ending.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: Canaccord Genuity https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/Mining Conference: https://www.pdac.ca
Jaime Carrasco is portfolio manager at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in Toronto. From 2014-2018, he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for Scotia McLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.
Tom welcomes Lior Gantz back to the show. Lior is the founder and editor of Wealth Research Group.
Lior discusses the long-term cycles of globalization and deglobalization. Deglobalization is typically very destabilizing, and we may see political problems for several decades. Trust between governments is diminished, and we're beginning to see this play out, particularly in Russia, where western companies are fleeing.
Markets are calling the government's bluff over their energy policies. Oil executives are not incentivized to produce in this regulatory environment. The oil industry is going to wait until the politics improve.
The developing world will demand much more energy and oil over the coming years. The environmental regulations of the West will cause energy prices to remain elevated for some time.
Lior explains how the Fed can mitigate the demand side of inflation, but it's up to the government to improve supply issues.
The dollars' integrity has not been diminished during the Ukraine crisis. We're moving towards a two-sided world, with China building up a comparable currency system. They will try and include countries like Indonesia and Russia. We're looking at a gradual decline in use of the dollar. Eventually, the world will have two global reserve currencies.
Gold is doing exactly what is needed in these times, preserving wealth. Gold is flat, but equity markets are down significantly. This recession is coinciding with labor shortages. Interest rates are rising quickly and this is creating recessionary indications. We're in a shock period for both stocks and bonds. He believes we're witnessing a profound shift in Central Banker's approach to markets.
He doesn't believe we're going to enter a generational housing crash. We are likely already near the bottom for real estate. This might be as cheap as this sell-off gets. Markets have priced in numerous problems, but they have not factored the solutions that will come. There are reasons to be hopeful.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Supply Side Inflation6:07 - Commodities & Conflict8:48 - Resource Dependencies13:34 - Oil & Politics16:00 - Central Banks & Energy22:35 - The Dollar & The BRICS25:46 - Recession & Gold33:19 - Golds Next Leg Up37:49 - Housing Crash?41:26 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The secondary effects of deglobalization.The energy crisis and why the developing world will need a lot more energy.The dollar and the developing Eastern reserve currency.Golds importance and the shift in central bank policies.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/researchwealthWebsite: https://www.wealthresearchgroup.comSpecial Report: https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/11Special Report: https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/2022
Lior has been called a thrill-seeking entrepreneur by his team. He built and runs numerous successful businesses and has traveled to over 30 countries in the past decade to pursue thrills and opportunities, gaining valuable knowledge and experience.
With Wealth Research Group, Lior allows readers access into the world of the few who beat the markets consistently for decades, thus leveling the playing field of the investment industry. With immense passion and full-force devotion to the readers, Lior's purpose is to publish content that will have life-long value and allow readers to approach investing with methodical precision and a well-thought-out game plan.
Lior has been actively investing in the markets since the age of 16 and is now bringing the same proven strategies he has implemented himself. He is an advocate of meticulous risk management, balanced asset allocation, and proper position sizing.
His research is relentless and delivers a unique perspective to investors. As a deep-value investor, Lior loves researching businesses that are off the radar and utterly unknown to most financial publications.
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss his nosy questions for the junior mining business. It's important to know the value proposition of a company before one focuses on share price. Successful investors form opinions as to value. The idea being to get it more correct than other investors. A share represents fractional ownership in a business. What is the business worth and what are the risks. If a series of things go right, what will be the value. Researching juniors requires great effort.
Investing in yourself and your education is always timely. It's likely as the dollar rises that equity prices decline in juniors. If you want to maximize your return, then attempt to buy when things are on sale. Hone your skills and examine private placements if you're an accredited investor.
Junior miners are destroyers of capital, and if consolidated into one company, they would lose billions a year. However, ten percent of them can perform fantastic. The purpose of these questions is to eliminate those that will likely underperform.
The management of a company is of critical importance. You want to consider the probability that a particular group of people will be successful. Interestingly, four percent of management teams produce over sixty percent of the returns. Your aim is to hang out with serially successful people. That one percent of issuers that have generated forty percent of the returns. It isn't worth your while to only participate in someone's first success.
You want teams that are flexible enough to recognize when they need to reposition or add job positions as the nature of projects change.
You should develop a schedule for outcomes from unanswered questions of juniors. Should the answers to a series of questions work out, you should expect decent returns.
Two red flags can be the cost of general administrative expenses compared to actual work in the ground. The second is a company with unrealistically low budgets for work that typically costs quite a bit more.
Successful people should be excited about their project and more than willing to talk. They should love to participate because it flatters them.
Talking Points From This Episode
Importance of asking high-quality questions to junior management.Evaluating the potential of the unanswered question.Red flags and the importance of finding the best management teams.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - High-Quality Questions4:53 - Opportunity On Sale7:24 - Destroyer of Capital9:17 - Sedar & Edgar12:10 - Liquidation Value15:15 - Considerations23:05 - Personnel Turnover25:22 - The Value Proposition31:08 - Red Flags34:00 - Capitalization & Time42:08 - Company Goals45:14 - Skin in the Game48:35 - Favorite Question51:43 - Access to Info56:24 - Age of Mis-Information1:00:18 - Probability Application1:02:16 - 20/20 Hindsight1:04:38 - Future Dollar Outlook1:09:21 - Metals & Price Discovery1:13:56 - Rule Metals Symposium
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickruleWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.comConference: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transaction...
Tom welcomes a exciting guest who introduced himself in the last Twitter Spaces, Mark Nelson. Mark has a very interesting perspective on the nuclear energy industry and is an advocate for the it's benefits. He explains why the cost of uranium has a minimal impact on the cost of operating a reactor. We take a deep dive into why nuclear energy has not been fully embraced in the west in recent years. The political, social, and economic reasons why building nuclear plants has become increasingly difficult. We take several listener questions.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/energybantsWebsite: https://radiantenergyfund.org
Mark Nelson is Managing Director at Radiant Energy Fund. He has discussed nuclear safety in Ukraine in television appearances with CNBC and Bloomberg, among others, and has contributed to articles on the same topic from Bloomberg and the BBC. His analytical work on clean energy and nuclear power has been cited in Reuters, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and other papers of record internationally. He holds an MPhil in Nuclear Engineering from Cambridge University, and BS degrees in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and a BA in Russian Language and Literature from Oklahoma State University. Previously he worked as Senior Analyst at Environmental Progress in Berkeley, California, with previous stops at the Breakthrough Institute in Oakland, California and Los Alamos National Laboratories in New Mexico.
Tom welcomes back to the show, Martin Armstrong. Martin discusses his economic confidence model and his study of historic economic patterns. Studying all the historic booms and busts, he developed a model around investor expectations. Every inflation wave is different, and this one won't be fixed by raising rates. This one is based on shortages and not a speculative boom. They don't want to admit that the lockdowns started the collapse in the supply chain. There is no economic understanding with politicians as they all operate with blinders.
We're going to see more unrest in Third World countries due to energy costs. People will vote from their recent experience. When Trump became elected, populism became the enemy. Politicians are threatened by nationalism. The truth is, most of them hate democracy. The heads of the E.U. are appointed and governments in that union are subservient. It doesn't really matter who gets elected. These people would love to impose a similar system here in North America.
The W.E.F. is discussing a debt default while making it sound like they have the public's best interest at heart.
Publicly, the West is waging war against the Russian people with the objective of overthrowing Putin. This theory has never worked. All that occurs is the population blames the West, and this tends to improve his popularity.
The causes of hyperinflation are usually fairly complex. For Germany in 1922 they couldn't repay their reparations, so they confiscated 10 percent of everyone's assets for a bond. However, this action caused citizens to rapidly diversify out of the state currency. Usually, hyperinflations are the result of a loss of confidence. He describes how the capture of a Roman emperor created a loss of confidence in the government and began the debasing of the currency.
Central banks and politicians are surrounded by academics that believe in economics like MMT. Their understanding is limited, and therefore their policies will fail.
He discusses his model and how it's indicating a shift in the types of government from Republics to more direct democracies around 2032. Republics represent their own self-interest, and that eventually is their downfall. He expects another collapse around 2032.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Economic Confidence Model8:40 - Malice or Stupidity?10:20 - Power Cycles & Davos16:05 - Debt & Owning Nothing17:38 - Russia & Putin's Ratings20:10 - Society & Religions22:18 - Historic Hyperinflations30:42 - The Problem with Debt35:47 - MMT - The Road Ahead?37:43 - Ukraine Outcome?44:40 - Soros & China/Russia50:00 - The Coming Shift53:58 - CBDCs and Control55:38 - Manias and Bubbles?58:46 - The Gold Cycle & Assets1:04:14 - Housing Markets1:05:03 - Censorship1:07:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Inflationary pressures are being caused by supply chain disruptions.Expect further unrest due to energy costs.The historic causes of hyperinflations.Why governments will move from Republics to more direct democracies.
Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9
Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed.
At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
...
Tom welcomes back Ted Oakley, Managing Director and Founder of Oxbow Advisors.
Ted believes the Fed will push the economy into a recession to mitigate inflationary pressures. He explains how rising rates effect many markets and economy. These rate hikes are slowing the housing market. In addition, consumers are beginning to cut back on expenses and many will start losing jobs as the economy contracts.
He discusses how some investors take loans out against their stock portfolio. This area of credit is huge, but exact figure are hard to come by. These loans can become problematic when stocks decline significantly.
The Fed continues to put the wrong people in positions. Too many lack business experience, and instead we have mostly academics. These types are completely disconnected from the man on the street. He notes that the Fed's calls are only correct about a quarter of the time.
Any time there are major bubbles, the cause is usually massive leverage. Eventually, all the bubbles will have to deleverage until they reach normal levels.
The E.U. is composed of many countries with different economic capabilities, which is difficult to balance. ESG policies have definitely worsened the energy problems in the West. Shutting down pipelines while over regulating the carbon energy is a direct attack on that industry. It did not have to be this way if we had better leadership.
If bond markets begin to seize up, the Fed will intervene because that would lock up the economy. In addition, there is a lot of political pressure to alleviate inflation before November.
He cautions that the current rallies should be sold at least until investors are completely sick of these markets.
We're in an incredibly unprecedented speculative time, and this means the pain will continue for a considerable period.
Lastly, Ted discusses how China will deal with their real estate situation.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Inflation & Rates4:00 - Consumer Outlook5:34 - Markets & Margin Calls7:22 - Fed Academics10:06 - Feds Dual Mandate14:36 - Fed & Easy Money15:58 - Japan's Debt17:29 - Normal Times?20:30 - Europe Outlook & Energy24:25 - Make the Fed Pivot?28:10 - What is Worth Buying?31:08 - Speculation Abounds35:54 - Real Estate & China38:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why the Fed intends to create a recession.The effects of leverage on the blowing up of asset bubbles.The E.U.'s complex economic structures and the effects of ESG on energy markets.Why credit markets may cause the Fed to pivot.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsWebsite: https://oxbowadvisors.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/OxbowAdvisors
J. Ted Oakley, CFA, CFP, is Managing Director and Founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over thirty-five years of experience in the investment industry. The "Oxbow Principles" and the firm's proprietary investment strategies were developed as a result of the unique perspective Ted gained throughout his almost four-decade tenure advising high net worth investors.
Tom welcomes a new guest, Bob Thompson, to the program. Bob is Senior Portfolio Manager at Thompson Investment Partners of Raymond James Ltd.
Bob discusses the importance of having a good macro view on the mining sector. Resources are very cyclical, and the times when people are most positive is the time of maximum risk. He sees a tremendous similarity between now and markets of the late 90s.
The S&P either needs to go down a lot or gold needs to rise significantly. It seems likely they will meet somewhere in the middle. Input costs squeeze most companies, and this is why resource companies do better for a period.
Bull markets tend to end a speculative blow-off. Afterwards, there is usually a different sector that takes the lead. We seem to be at the beginning of a new run in commodities, and perhaps we will have a decade long-run.
He doesn't believe that tightening by the Fed will curb inflation because the Fed can't raise rates to a meaningful level.
Bob quotes Alexander Tytler, a Scottish Historian, "A democracy can't exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result that democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."
The west has been living beyond its means, and creating more money, this eventually stops working. The system can't support our wants indefinitely, even if everyone wants their promised piece of the unfunded liability pie.
Bob outlines each hour of his 'The Mining Clock' which can determine where we are in the cycle. The access to credit is what makes the great discoveries possible.
He likes to consider investing in any market that has moved down eighty percent.
ESG is providing an opportunity for investors that understand how negatively it is affecting energy markets. It's denying of capital investment into the sector. Energy demand is fairly stable, but supply is shrinking.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Resource & Equity Cycles6:35 - Printing & Growth Stocks7:58 - S&P Vs. Gold Ratios11:00 - Commodity Structures14:45 - Margin Compression16:17 - Pandemic & Inflation20:34 - Tightening Policies23:08 - Fed Recession/Inflation25:09 - Alexander Tytler Quote28:25 - Canadian Bubbles32:18 - Strategic Allocation35:27 - Market Strategies40:18 - The Mining Clock53:45 - Uranium Cycle1:01:09 - ESG & Opportunity1:06:13 - Copper & Silver1:12:15 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The macro perspective on the mining sector.Bull markets and cautionary tips for investorsHis Mining Clock, and it's importance in determining where you're at in the mining cycle.Uranium and energy and why ESG is creating opportunity for keen investors.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/bobthompsonrjWebsite: https://www.raymondjames.ca/Website: https://bobthompson.ca
When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry.
Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada's leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals.
He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker.
This is Part One of our live Twitter Spaces Event from Friday June 10, 2022. This event has an all-star cast of characters including Francis Hunt - The Market Sniper, Doomberg, and Steve St. Angelo along with our regular guests Bob Coleman and Jim Hunter. This week we focus once again on the economy and the energy crisis. Things get a bit heated at times as we take some very interesting listener questions and commentary.
Follow our Twitter to find out when the next live stream space will occur. Be a part of the conversation!
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim HunterTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Francis HuntTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Steve St. AngeloWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
DoombergTwitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Tom welcomes a new guest, Charles Nenner. He provides independent market research to hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients.
He has been out of most markets for the last year, everything except crude oil and natural gas. They are looking for entry points in gold and silver after the summer. They have a downside target on the S&P of 3709, and, 11180 on the Nasdaq. There may be a bounce at that level, but it's still a long-term bear market.
The correlations that experts give for inflation may be wrong. The causes of inflation have been building for a long time. Instead of trying to explain every action, it's important to focus on the long market cycles. This will remove a lot of the guess work as to the causes. Charles explains the timeframes and cycle methodology that he utilizes in his research.
Charles argues the Fed is not really in control and that most of their actions have little effect. He believes they are worried about the situation. He notes that insiders started selling in the second half of last year.
The problem with the news is they will tell you why something happened after it happens.
In 2006, he predicted the housing market would crash, which it did. When stocks move up with a certain amount of momentum, you can calculate how long it will go up.
He predicted we would enter a war cycle based on historic cycles. The second decade of a new century tends to have wars. Years ending in a 7 tend to have large downward equity moves. 1929 was an exception. He doesn't understand why these things happen, but he can find the patterns.
Every sixty to eighty years, a new country takes the economic lead in the world. The next cycle will be China and other countries, and they will become a big economic power and Europe will barely hang on.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:32 - Being Defensive3:12 - Inflation5:14 - Timeframes & Cycles5:57 - Advances & Declines6:58 - Bond Yields & Fed9:51- Gold & Oil Cycles12:12 - Random Planning16:08 - Past Calls17:07 - War Cycles & Rhymes21:49 - Cycles Culminating22:38 - Wars & Geopolitics25:35 - Leading Economies27:46 - Cycles & Commodities31:00 - Media Agendas31:52 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Studying market cycles instead of the mainstream news.The causes of inflation are long-term structural issues, and the experts are probably wrong.Fed is not really in control and insiders have been selling since last fall.Predicting the cycles of War and other interesting market patterns.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/NennerResearchWebsite: https://www.charlesnenner.com
In 2001, Charles Nenner founded, and is president of, the Charles Nenner Research Center. Mr. Nenner has provided his independent market research to the following entities all over the world: hedge funds, banks, brokerage firms, family offices, and individual clients. Mr. Nenner worked for Goldman, Sachs & Co in NY, from 2001 to 2008. Before that time, Mr. Nenner worked exclusively for Goldman, Sachs & Co. in London, where he served as a technical analyst for Goldman’s fixed income trading group from 1998 to 2001. From 1997 to 1998, he served as the head of trading research at Rabobank International, and from 1992 to 1994, he was head of Market Timing at Ofek Securities in Tel Aviv. Mr. Nenner served as Director of Research at Windsor, NY between 1987 and 1989, and was a Financial Consultant with Merrill Lynch out of its Amsterdam Office from 1985 to 1987. Mr. Nenner initiated a system of pattern forecasting and securities analysis, and developed a computer program which takes many indicators into account, including Mr. Nenner's use of proprietary cycle analysis. Mr. Nenner graduated from Maimonides College Amsterdam in 1972, and from the University of Amsterdam Medical College, where he earned his medical degree in 1984.
Tom welcomes Michael Singleton to the program. Michael is Senior Analyst at Invictus Research.
Michael explains Invictus's approach to investing, which includes a focus on the business cycle. You can leverage the growth and inflation cycles to determine where markets and the economy are at. Growth has been awful during the Covid period, and a lot of reporting is comparing to the disaster that was 2021.
We haven't seen slowing inflation even as rates have been going up. Inflation should slow because inflationary tailwinds are slowly reversing.
The Fed operates through financial conditions, which are variable factors that affect future growth. The bond, mortgage and credit markets all tightened policy before the Fed raised rates. Their communications drive expectations for others to base policy around.
Mike discusses why slower GDP growth is likely, and he explains how seasonal adjustments impact the rate. They believe growth could be down for some time.
The CRB Commodity Index is a basket of commodities, and it's useful at measuring where inflationary pressures will show up first.
Bellwether analysis is a tool to keep an eye on the economy. There are stocks that act as signals for what is going on in the underlying economy. Amazon and CAT are good examples of these types of stocks because they track economic activity closely.
Retail stocks have been getting crushed. This is a good indicator for how bad consumer sentiment has become. This is a classic example of where the consumers disagree with the experts.
When policy begins to shift, Mike explains what indications to look for in bonds when easing expectations grow. If the Fed intends to induce a growth scare, one would expect credit spreads to widen.
Most investors today don't really know what a recession means. A recession is always defined after the fact by the National Bureau of Economic Research. This is why trading the growth cycle is a better method.
Lastly, the usefulness of Invictus Research's reports and why they are probably much more meaningful than traditional media news sources.
Talking Points From This Episode
Business cycle investing to leverage the growth and inflation.The Fed's toolbox and why communication is their first tool.Bellwether stocks that are useful in determining market direction.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Business Cycle Investing3:47 - CPI Outlook & Fed7:03 - Tightening Vs. Expectations10:33 - GDP Growth Thoughts13:08 - CPI Accuracy?14:54 - CRB Commodity Index16:46 - Bellwether Equities20:25 - Consumer Sentiment22:48 - U.S. Labor Markets24:17 - Fed Tools & Debt Levels26:00 - Bonds and Easing Policy29:04 - Defining Recession30:12 - Commodity Prices31:44 - Economic Gold Drivers34:18 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://invictus-research.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro
Michael Singleton is Senior Analyst at Invictus Research. He studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, he worked for several years with Broad Run Investment Management. There he spent most of my time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies. That grounding gained him a thorough, bottom-up approach to research and has proven invaluable.
Since then, his focus has been spent studying the economy at-large and its relationship with liquid asset markets. There is a massive hole in the analysis market for timely, thoughtful, and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he became involved at Invictus.
This is Part One of our live Twitter Spaces Event from Friday June 10, 2022. This event has an all-star cast of characters including Francis Hunt - The Market Sniper, Doomberg, and Steve St. Angelo along with our regular guests Bob Coleman and Jim Hunter. This week we focus once again on the economy and the energy crisis. Things get a bit heated at times as we take listener questions and commentary.
Note: Doomberg is using some sort of audio transmogrifier to distort his voice.
Follow our Twitter to find out when the next live stream space will occur. Be a part of the conversation!
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim HunterTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Steve St. AngeloWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Francis Hunt:Twitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Doomberg:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
To subscribe to our newsletter and get notified of new shows, please visit http://palisadesradio.caPalisades is also available on Odysee and Rumblehttps://odysee.com/@PalisadesGoldRadio:c
Tom welcomes Lyn Alden, Financial Newsletter Editor & Publisher, back to the show.
Lyn discusses global central bank policies and their effects on inflation. We now have a much different environment than what we had five years ago. The famous Powell pivot of 2018 may have been caused by the credit markets freezing up and not equities. They tried to raise rates until the risk of a recession ballooned.
It's most likely that countries will continue to inflate their debts away because the only other option is to default. Typically, defaults only occur with countries who are unable to print their own currency. We should expect inflation to continue for some time and purchasing power to decline significantly.
Good forms of deflation comes from increases in productivity, technology, and improved energy systems. In a low-debt environment, things should get cheaper over time as we become more efficient. The bad type of deflation is when debt bubbles collapse, and we see a collapse of demand. Most economists see deflation as always bad, but in many systems deflation could be a good thing.
We're entering a period where globalization is going to flat line or even begin declining. This will likely be a driver for inflation in the future.
Europe is going to have to focus on being a fiscal union, or they risk their monetary union failing to some extent. The United States works as a fiscal union, and the large expenses occur at the Federal level. States in the U.S. are relatively low debt. Most countries in Europe hold significant debt loads, which will be challenging.
We've seen energy prices rapidly moving up, particularly in Europe, rapidly well before the outbreak of war. Now we have additional risk factors in oil, wheat, uranium, platinum and nickel. The amount of currency creation and lack of capital expenditure on resource development are all drivers for the current issues.
Lastly, she discusses how the gold stock to high flow ratio can make a commodity easier to manipulate. This is because most investors are fine with only having a paper claim to the underlying metal.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - C.B. Inflation Targets2:53 - Fed's Debt Endgame7:01 - Today Vs. 1940s9:52 - Good & Bad Deflation11:56 - Soft Landing14:17 - Rising Rates & The Dollar20:01 - Deglobalization Impacts26:48 - Europe's Challenges30:45 - Energy & Commodities34:30 - Energy & Ukraine38:30 - Green Energy & ESG44:29 - Energy Policy Shifting?46:26 - EROI & an Energy Cliff49:18 - Demand & Commodities50:45 - Risk & Diversifying53:13 - Gold Stock to Flow57:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The Fed and why the U.S. will choose to deflate away debt.The differences between good and bad forms of deflation.Why globalization is likely going to flat line or decline and that will increase inflation.Problems in Europe around lack of fiscal policy agreement and there continue energy issues.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://www.lynalden.com/
Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, "Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance." Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you're new to investing or experienced, there's a lot there for you.
Lyn has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and a master's degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility.
She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time's Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph,
Tom welcomes back global forecaster and author David Murrin. David believes there is a risk of significant conflict in the Asian region including Korea and Taiwan. China is gaining knowledge of war and the usefulness of drone technology. The West is essentially at war with Russia, but the level of collective delusion from Western leaders is concerning.
The United States has been in decline since the beginning of this century. We're seeing more liberal policies, and we're seeing things unravel socially and politically.
David discusses how China has shifted policy to become independent from the West. The consequences could be severe because the West is far behind in manufacturing. China is trying to become a consumer nation, and currently, they are using excess manufacturing capacity for consumer goods and weapons.
David explains the differences between lateral and linear ways of thinking. We've had an abundance of linear thinkers who is less flexible but useful in times of stability. The truth is the West is declining because of this linear takeover of thought. What is needed today is greater understanding. The West's institutions are dominated by linear thinkers whereas China is thinking laterally. Britain is the only country that has a chance of becoming more lateral soon.
The world of finance is dominated by linear thinkers, and we see how that approach is working with inflation.
Kondratieff cycles are composed of 52-year cycles that move from peak to bottom over 26 years. This cycle started around 2000, and he believes a collapse in demand is imminent . Equities will be chewed up, and the next phase will be more inflation and higher commodities. There will be a pause with inflation followed by another surge. He believes hyperinflation is in the cards. Whatever has worked for the past twenty years is unlikely to do so in an era of money printing.
He believes the dollar will sell off and enter a final declining cycle. The dollar is going to lose favor against the Euro in a profound way as capital flees.
There are numerous problems with commodities and a lack of capital investment in the sector. Europe needs to do far more to manage its energy resources. They haven't taken a strategic view of energy, and now they face the consequences.
We're looking at a collapse of a magnitude that is hard to comprehend as a hundred years of policies correct.
He explains the differences between the debts of the United States and China. The U.S. is far more vulnerable than China as China has invested in actual production capacity.
Lastly, he explains the psychology of markets and the importance of price. Investors need to analyze both their successes and failures because they may have just gotten lucky.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:19 - American Hegemony4:56 - Eastern Planning7:14 - Economic Consequences10:36 - Lateral Vs. Linear15:47 - Kondratieff Cycles21:18 - Alpha & Beta Models25:24 - Dollar Outflows & Rates29:42 - Resource Underinvestment31:26 - Doomsday Bubble34:45 - Debt Jubilee?40:00 - Commodities & Inflation41:24 - China Vs. U.S. Debt43:25 - Protecting Yourself44:50 - Market Psychology50:33 - Thinking Clearly53:05 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David's assessment of the risks from China and their increasing geopolitical and militaristic influence.Types of thinking and why the West is dominated by linear thought.Kondratieff waves and why the dollar is in for another leg down.Price and the major flaws with fundamentals.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous,
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven podcast, to the show. A note of caution, Chris takes the gloves off in this episode so some swearing ensues.
Chris is concerned that China is challenging the United States as a global superpower and they probably have more gold reserves than they publicly acknowledge. China's business approach tends to be sharper and more ruthless than the West. They have a long time horizon for planning and economic policy. It's not hard to imagine that China might eventually want to back their currency with something solid.
Now with events in Ukraine, we see the unprecedented attempts to sanction Russia and other countries are taking notice. It looks like a separate economic system from the U.S. Petrodollar is an increasing possibility. We could be on the verge of the largest shift in monetary history.
He discusses the movie "The China Hustle" and how it portrays some of the fraud with Chinese-based companies.
The government continues to push for more control and encroaches more and more on rights. Once your rights are taken you're not getting them back.
Governments need to evaluate the cost-benefit of their policies. Since the United States is a nation of gun owners that has to be taken into consideration but in many other countries firearms ownership is not an issue. Politicians, however, are allowed to be surrounded by men with guns.
We're in the process of a giant reset and it seems unanimous that gold will back a new system in one form or another. Gold is going to be the commodity to hold because it brings you control and protection. At some point, we're going to see a mad dash for gold around the world. Governments are also going to want gold because that will give them power.
Miners will eventually go into a mania phase and we won't see control in the gold markets. This will happen as the public realizes things are out of control. The risk of nationalization needs to be in your risk assessment.
The world needs more resources but governments keep intervening in undesirable ways that exacerbate the problems.
Lastly, Chris discusses his opinion on the problems in crypto and why the bottom probably is still coming.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Comparing China's Economic and Business approach with that of the west.Gold, miners, and guns and why the government will want to control all three.Crypto markets and why the bottom is not here yet.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:36 - Macro Themes & China12:53 - Ole Yellen & Inflation14:05 - The China Hustle16:06 - China's Policies19:25 - Responsibility & Rights25:08 - Gold & Global Economy31:05 - Canada's Gold Reserves32:20 - Govt Solutions & Energy35:21 - Media Distractions43:50 - Crypto Market Risks49:32 - Free Markets?50:45 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videosPodcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.comSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearchDocumentary: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7215388/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast.
Tom welcomes back a man who should need no introduction, Doug Casey. Doug is a libertarian philosopher, speculator, and author.
Doug believes the economy is on the ragged edge of collapse and things are starting to get serious. Currently, he is spending much of his time between the U.S. and Latin America.
The people drawn to government positions are typically those that like to control and manipulate others. Crisis are used as opportunities for those in power and the next set of problems will be very serious economically. It's said that the average American can't find a spare 500 dollars, and most are heavily in debt. The people will look for a savior in the coming collapse and a sociopath will take advantage. We're in a scary situation.
The level of freedom in the world for the average person has been gradually diminishing. A hundred years ago, governments ran on a trivial amounts of the GDP, largely import duties. Since then, all have become behemoths and control their economies excessively. Most countries have VAT taxes over 10 percent. Today you need approval for everything and anything not mandatory is likely prohibited.
National debts are now being sold to their respective central banks via direct printing of money. This is why inflation is exploding since they've increased the money supply massively. Debts are dangerous as most people today are borrowing from their future selves.
Equities and bonds are both in mania phases. When bonds begin to collapse things get much more serious. Right now we would need returns of over 10% just to mitigate inflation. Pension funds will go bust and local governments will go bankrupt while raising taxes. Gold is the only alternative because it's not someone else's liability.
Doug believes the place to me is in the gold miners along with uranium and most commodities. You can't be a saver or investor in this environment. You should consider speculating on mining stocks but it's a crappy business. The problem with mining today is the cost and regulations. When you find gold that's when your problems are just getting started. However, if the world doesn't have mining we won't have anything.
Doug discusses the energy markets and the problems being created by green energy policies. Prices seem certain to continue to rise and then normalize. There are no easy ways out of this energy crisis.
The causes of the Ukraine conflict are based on U.S. foreign policy and Russia's reaction is understandable. Largely the conflict is and should be none of our business. Ukraine remains one of the most corrupt countries and all we hear in the media is one side of the story.
A lot of commodities including grain, fertilizer, and energy come from Russia and Ukraine. This is a big problem.
Talking Points From This Episode
Outlook for the economy and the ever-encroaching government overreach into personal lives.Bubbles, equities, and why bonds are the biggest bubble.Importance of speculating in commodities, uranium, and miners.The collapse of empire and the effects on society.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Travel & Globalism2:57 - Crisis & Fear6:02 - The Freedom Gap8:15 - Debts, Deficits & Bad Times11:10 - Speculation & Risk16:24 - Investing Vs. Speculating21:06 - Crisis Investing25:00 - Energy & Nat. Gas30:18 - Empire & Collapse37:58 - Consequences38:37 - The Ukraine Conflict?44:03 - China & Taiwan45:45 - Educating Yourself47:10 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQWebsite: https://internationalman.com/Amazon Books: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhc
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on "rational speculation,", especially in the high-potential natural resourc...
Tom welcomes a new guest Adam Hamilton. Adam is the founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service.
Adam notes that whenever something hawkish occurs with the Fed gold tends to get hammered down. There are several ways that gold futures can be manipulated, and one way is with excessive leverage. Speculators in gold futures generally have short time horizons because of their excessive use of leverage.
When markets sell off people rush to cash as a safe haven. This occurs with major events and whenever there is news from the Fed.
Since 1971, there have been a dozen rate hike cycles. Adam defines a cycle as three sequential rate hikes. Gold has risen during eight past cycles but fell during four. The more aggressive the Fed's actions the worse gold tends to perform.
Gold is very useful for mitigating the effects of inflation. High inflation should boost gold's performance. It seems unlikely that the Fed will be able to control inflation, especially at these Fed fund rate levels. Inflation has more to do with the crazy money printing over the past couple of years along with the supply issues.
Adam explains how gold has performed during past cycles and why we should see good performance from this cycle. He believes this cycle could be epic for gold. It's also good that we're entering this new cycle after gold has been moving sideways for a couple of years.
He discusses the differences between speculating and investing which has mostly to do with respective time horizons.
Adam discusses what he looks for in mining equities and juniors. It's difficult for gold to respond to supply changes because of the time it takes to bring mines online. Adam looks for growth in production in mining equities. Management and jurisdiction are also key along with miners cash flow and debt levels.
Silver has had worse economics than gold miners, and there aren't many good silver miners. Silver will respond well to higher gold prices, and potentially silver will have a better upside.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Gold Futures & Dumps4:50 - Dollar & Equities6:26 - Rate Hiking Cycles10:35 - Factoring Inflation16:12 - Inflation Causes18:32 - Gold & Cycles19:52 - Timing Markets21:07 - Gold Predictions24:50 - Investing vs. Speculating25:16 - Picking Mining Equities28:08 - Miner Input Costs39:44 - Silver Miners31:12 - Exit Strategies33:14 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed policies and their historical impact on the price of gold.Inflation causes and effects.Tips for finding the best junior miners.Silver and strategies for when to exit metals markets.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htmRate Hike Article: http://zealllc.com/2022/gdtrvrhc.htm
Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on a task like most other professions.
After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.
By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.
Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life.
Tom welcomes Andrew Gilbert back to the show to discuss the markets. Andrew is the Founder & Lead Technical Analyst of Sniper Trading.
Andrew discusses the effects of the Fed on the markets and how tightening is creating capitulation events in equities. The Fed affects the volatility while remaining the godfather of the markets. Markets are likely to stay volatile, and only lower is where we are heading until the Fed starts adding liquidity.
We're in a short-covering rally where institutions clear out positions. Institutions are taking profits, and we're likely to see this rally run out of steam. Andrew compares the current markets with those of the 1970s. We're seeing similar market structures. Expect another break to the downside.
It will be interesting to see how committed Powell remains and when they will choose to pivot. We might see action at the thirty percent correction level based on past actions. The pivot will likely depend on the inflation numbers.
The VIX volatility has been increasing, and it's usually correlated with the S&P.
He discusses the potential catalysts for gold and silver. Most likely we will have to wait until the Fed pivots, which will allow the metals to move higher.
Andrew discusses the nearly 1 to 1 correlation between S&P and Bitcoin. He expects a further decline in crypto markets. He believes there will likely be other alt-coin collapses like what we've seen with Luna.
Lastly, he discusses the bond markets and what to expect with bond yields. We should see another three to six months before yields break down.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Fed's Importance4:13 - The Recent Bounce7:14 - Powell Intervening?9:57 - VIX Usefulness13:30 - Gold & Silver16:52 - Bitcoin Call18:42 - Crypto Leverage Risks20:22 - Bond Yields22:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why the Fed remains the key to markets.The current rally and why it won't hold.The direct correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P.Expectations for bond yields.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.snipertradingdiscord.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/rherNmyM33Twitter: https://twitter.com/snipertrading1YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzqrb76SwxSi9qucgZ7LcMQ
Andrew is the Founder & Lead Technical Analyst of Sniper Trading. Sniper Trading is an exclusive discord community that provides daily trade setups for crypto, stocks, and metals. They also provide portfolios and education to improve your technical analysis skills.
Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders. David discusses the changes that have occurred in the markets since his last appearance on the show nearly two years ago. He believes another massive rally is coming for gold and that the Fed will reverse course. Countries never chose to default they always inflate their debts away. Markets today are centrally managed. What we have is not free-market capitalism.
The Fed appears to be engineering a recession to curb inflation. Unemployment is far higher than we are being told and we see that reflected in the credit card use. Demand is starting to drop, and many people are down to just buying essentials. This is why we're going to see dis-inflation. Prices for everything going up at once is not indicative of supply chain issues. More money is simply chasing fewer goods. We have supply chain issues mixed with money printing.
He expects the Fed to reverse policy and resume stimulus which will result in a final melt-up. At some point, the Fed's stimulus will be insufficient to prevent a crash. We've had an orderly sell-off recently in stocks, but what is coming will likely be a flash crash.
The Fed prefers to have a ready excuse to compensate for its policies. Expect a 'major event' this fall which will be used as cover. This event will likely occur when the Fed decides to reverse policies.
The dollar isn't strengthening in terms of purchasing power. It's just devaluing slower than all other currencies. When the Fed throws in the towel they will print trillions, and gold will go ballistic. The dollar is scheduled for demolition.
David notes that banks are now long on silver which he believes will soon go 'bananas'. The conditions are in place for a major metals low, and the risk-reward ratio is massively skewed to the upside. Current metal prices may shortly never be seen again.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Focus on the Fed6:44 - Trillions & Rates14:30 - Inflation Cause & Effect23:07 - Volatility & the Dollar26:50 - China & Gold Reserves33:00 - Treasuries & FX Theft35:26 - Housing Market Risks39:45 - His Process42:12 - Bottom in Metals?48:00 - Metal Premiums52:30 - Silver & Miners55:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed is engineering a recession to curb inflation.Everything is centrally managed, and the Fed will have to reverse its policy.The dollar is declining in purchasing power just slower than other currencies.Outlook for metals and why this may be the last time to buy at these levels.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/tag/david-brady.htmlWebsite: https://silverchartist.com/
David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce.
He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life.
David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.
This is Part Two of our live Twitter Spaces event from Friday May 19, 2022. This is an open discussion and this weeks participants include Steve St. Angelo, Bob Coleman, David Morgan, and Jim Hunter.
Steve St. Angelo continues his deep dive into the serious energy problems the world is facing. He explains why there are no easy solutions.
Follow our Twitter to find out when the next live stream space will occur. Be a part of the conversation!
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim HunterTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Steve St. AngeloWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Tom welcomes back the legendary investor Rick Rule to discuss the mining business and current geopolitics. Rick takes the gloves off and critiques how governments are inherently corrupt and why they prefer fiat systems.
He explains the difference between backing a currency and pegging it to a commodity.
Rick's approach to measuring wealth is by counting ounces, not dollars. Investors should try to avoid being held hostage to any one currency. The United States has chosen to weaponize both its banking system and currency. This grants them the ability to export their inflation to the rest of the world.
Those that take control of their own future tend to do very well. He is hopeful that the world will improve and that the safeguards taken never become necessary.
A lot of politics is pretending. We see a lukewarm political war between Russia and Ukraine, and the West. All the while, Europe is buying energy from Russia while supplying Ukraine with weapons. What we see is the manifestation of politics and is truly a tragedy.
Many countries of the west, including Canada are surprisingly anti-oil, and irrespective of economic interest, they don't want to develop their resources. Energy problems are likely coming to California due to these types of policies.
Higher uranium prices are coming because we consume more than we are producing. Inevitable should not be confused with imminent. The Sprott trust has bought a lot of surplus pounds. Japanese restarts will increase the consumption of uranium and will be extremely important.
Rick gives several reasons why he believes gold will continue to move upward and what it will take for him to consider selling. He believes huge structural changes are coming for bonds, and money will flow to alternatives like gold.
People are reluctant to buy asset classes when they are on sale because they want to follow what others are doing.
Rick invests in juniors by carefully working with successful management teams. Those teams should be operating where they are suited and have had previous success. Deposits need to be in the right jurisdiction with significant size and be very economical.
Rick never buys a stock unless he understands both the upside value proposition and the potential downside target level.
Talking Points From This Episode
The war in Ukraine and Russia's decision to peg its currency to commodities.Politics, lies, and why governments prefer fiat currencies.Why uranium prices will inevitably have to rise.What to look for in juniors and why investors fail to take advantage of low prices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:07 - Ruble & Commodities4:57 - Sanctions & Seizures8:18 - Gov't & Trust10:23 - WEF & Being Happy14:40 - Reading Picks18:03 - Rick's New Role22:50 - Sanctions & War27:12 - Nuclear Energy29:39 - ESG Reality35:57 - Catalysts for Uranium43:08 - Politics & Investing46:03 - Rick's Gold Thesis52:24 - On Sale & Sentiment57:09 - Inflation & Supply1:02:12 - Probability Investing1:07:24 - Pricing & Valuing Tuna1:10:14 - Investing & Discipline1:15:08 - Wrap Up
Book List:Economics in One Lesson - Henry Hazler - https://tinyurl.com/3wf5f3fkIntelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham - https://tinyurl.com/ycynnfxbSecurities Analysis - https://tinyurl.com/5absy9z5Human Action - Ludwig von Mises - https://tinyurl.com/4h54z98bSkin in the game - Nassim Taleb - https://tinyurl.com/3fn8w6juBerkshire Hathaway Annual Letters - https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickruleWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.comConference: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr.
Tom Welcomes back Dr. Stephen Leeb. He is a financial author, wealth manager, and newsletter publisher.
Stephen discusses the difficulties the world is facing and the need a shift gears to a better world. It's quite hard to sort the misinformation from the truth at this time. He says, "Since we've gone off the gold standard this country has gone downhill. We used to have to earn our productivity but afterward, we could print as much money as we wanted. The gold standard held our feet to the fire always. Since then money has replaced growth."
The damage that has been done by sanctioning Russia has impacted Europe and the rest of the world. It's resource scarcity, not climate change that is damaging economies. The crisis we have created in ourselves this country and investors need to protect themselves with gold. Problems are coming that may not be easily solved.
Stephen compares the United States' actions around the Cuban Missile Crisis to what is occurring between Russia and Ukraine.
Stephen discusses the importance of rare earth metals and the unfortunate reliance of the United States on other countries for various natural resources. In the 1990's we were the only place to get and process rare earths but we sold everything to China under Clinton. Our military could lose all functionality should we lose access to these metals. This country has lost much of its capabilities.
He proposes some possible explanations for why China has been locking down and limiting Shanghai's port activity.
Food and energy are becoming an existential crisis. Ukraine has the best soil and above all, we need cooperation and technological development.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:37 - Finding the Truth5:27 - Russian Ruble12:12 - Need to Cooperate17:00 - A Catastrophic Mistake23:58 - Equity Thoughts24:30 - U.S. Research & China30:12 - Get Into Real Assets33:00 - Fixing the U.S.36:17 - U.S. Military Problems38:55 - China Lockdowns?1:01:20 - Think For Yourself1:03:12 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Discerning truth in a world of propaganda.Sanctions backfiring and existential global risks.Commodity dependency on other nations and the risks involved.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeebPhdWebsite: https://www.leeb.net/Website: https://www.stephenleeb.com/Book/Amazon: https://tinyurl.com/y4wphb87
Dr. Stephen Leeb is a recognized authority on the stock market, macroeconomic trends, and commodities, especially oil and precious metals. As Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management, Dr. Leeb combines his knowledge of macro-economic trends and current market conditions with detailed information about specific companies he follows to guide the Committee's investment decisions.
Stephen Leeb is a financial author, wealth manager, and publisher of a family of investment newsletters. He has been a recurring guest on CNN, Fox News, NPR, Bloomberg, and many others through the years. Leeb was also said to be one of the country's foremost financial experts, with Charlie Gasparino 2016 recommending Leeb as a good candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman.
Leeb earned a B.S. in Economics from the Wharton School of Business. He also earned a Masters's in Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Illinois. He authored research papers on psychology and statistics in the peer-reviewed journal Psychological Reports. Stephen Leeb is married and lives in New York City, New York.
Leeb has written nine books on macroeconomic trends, finance, and investment, including the New York Times Best Sellers. Stephen's recent book Red Alert was awarded the 2012 Axiom Business Book Awards silver medal in the International Business/Globalization category.
Tom welcomes a new guest Dale Pinkert to the show. Dale is an experienced commodity and FX trader. He is also head of trader development at Trade Gate Hub.
Dale discusses the importance of gathering 'intelligence' in trading and questioning your own beliefs. It's important to manage emotions and practice risk management. Stops are important for those occasions where you're wrong, and the best traders use them diligently. If you don't know why you're getting into the market you shouldn't be doing it.
He explains how all markets are manipulated, and no one complains when there is a bull market. The Fed can't print commodities so Fed policies will have little effect. Instead, Jay Powell should pray for rain.
The debt burden means we can't survive much of a tightening cycle. Dale will be surprised if the Fed can get rates to three percent. It won't take much to topple a system that is so top-heavy with debt.
The strength of the dollar hasn't impacted the metals market that much. The long dollar trade is quite a crowded trade. We could be looking at a new low for the Euro and a top for the dollar. Every major bottom in silver can be matched with a top in the dollar. We need a bear market in the dollar for silver to move.
The U.S. might not be the best currency any longer. Some of our key market structures appear broken, and therefore the dollar may no longer be the cleanest dirty shirt. Dale believes a rally in metals is coming.
Tom discusses the risks in the housing market and how things have changed since 2008. Mortgage rates are climbing, and risks are increasing. FOMOing into buying a house seems like a dangerous idea.
Tom and Dale discuss how market tops often come withclear signs like ads on the television for crypto or real estate.
Lastly, Dale gives some excellent advice for new investors learning to trade.
Talking Points From This Episode
Importance of learning and gathering 'intelligence' from others.Why the debt situation will limit the Fed's ability to act.Anticipating where the Dollar and Euro may head from here.Why the U.S. dollar might not be the best currency any longer.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:10 - Managing Risks8:10 - Metals Manipulation?10:07 - Debts, Rates, & The Fed13:20 - Dollar Strength15:18 - Macro Factors17:40 - Devil Advocacy20:22 - Bond Yields22:47 - Risk-On Trades29:41 - Equity Sell-Off & Metals32:03 - Timeframes & Evidence33:56 - Picking Miners37:55 - Copper Outlook40:44 - Housing Markets?46:50 - Market Top Signposts48:12 - Volatility & Opportunity51:14 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://face-experience.comWebsite: https://tradegatehub.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/ForexStopHunter
Dale is head of trader development at Trade Gate Hub and also the Host of Face.
Dale began his career in operations on the CME floor for Dean Witter when they traded currency futures on chalkboards. He became a licensed Series 3 broker in 1976 and went on to own and operate Pinkert Commodities GIB. He became a Member of the CME (IOM) Division for a stint, and his forecasts have been aired on many Financial media including CNBC.
Dale has Coached/Mentored retail and prop traders and has gained a solid reputation for his work on the other side of the mic having interviewed over 700 of the best of the best in Trading.
Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence, a research, and analytics firm.
Danielle discusses the U.S. government's approach to dealing with inflation which includes raising taxes. Should this administration push forward with these plans then consumers will be hit hardest. These measures aren't likely to pass until next year assuming the Democratic party doesn't all but collapse this fall.
She discusses how far astray the current administration and congress have been from following the law. Powell has been sounding quite tough in recent weeks. Had there not been a politically driven Fed leadership crisis rates would probably have been higher. Powell seems more resolute since being re-appointed. It will be interesting to see how far Powell will push the credit markets.
Dealing with supply-side inflation is extremely difficult for the Fed because they simply don't have the tools. Powell is able if he chooses to break the back of the housing markets. Housing, however, is a lagging measure that will push CPI numbers higher. We're going to see dis-inflation first in discretionary purchases which will lower monthly CPI prints.
The numbers indicate a global recession will arrive during 2022 which will translate into demand destruction for oil. Energy companies have been reluctant to reinvest profits since they are concerned about potential political risks.
Danielle discusses what Powell may need to see to pivot his approach. Should economic problems become systemic that would likely be the point. She notes that the current Fed is open to a significant decline in equities.
Lastly, she discusses the dynamics of the housing market and notes the intense speculation in these markets. A recession may create a lot of pressure on housing. There is a lot of leverage in the housing markets but they are mostly in the hands of investors. The downside is building for housing. Population growth rates determine the housing needs but right now it looks like we may be in for glut of supply.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Tax Hikes & Inflation3:27 - Powell Confirmation7:33 - Easing Inflation?8:59 - Yearly CPI Numbers12:30 - Energy Investment14:14 - Energy Prices & CPI15:18 - FED Leadership16:58 - When Powell Pivot?18:19 - Unemployment Rates?19:17 - Better Metrics?20:48 - Equities & Risk22:00 - Neg. Wealth Effects23:26 - A Big Question25:40 - Housing Risks?28:47 - Supply & Demand30:15 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
U.S. administrations' approach to fixing inflation by raising taxes?What factors will cause Powell to pivot.CPI metrics and why supply-side problems are difficult for the Fed to fix.Housing markets and potential downside factors.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothWebsite: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.
DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing a critical analysis of what drives the markets.
Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.
A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View,
This is a recording and an edited version of our live Twitter Spaces event from Friday May 19, 2022. This is an open discussion and this weeks participants include Steve St. Angelo, Bob Coleman, and Jim Hunter. David Morgan joins us in part two due out later in the week.
Steve St. Angelo takes us on a deep dive into the serious energy problems the world is facing. He explains why there are no easy solutions.
Follow our Twitter to find out when the next live stream space will occur. Be a part of the conversation!
Bob ColemanTwitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Jim HunterTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimSuncomm1Website: https://allendale-inc.com
Steve St. AngeloWebsite: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Tom welcomes returning guest Peter Grandich to the show. Peter is hearing directly from his clients that it's difficult to get goods and prices are rising quickly. The Fed's ability to deal with inflation seems limited. The lockdown created secondary effects on supply chains, and now things are becoming compounded with China and Russia. The Fed's tools are largely useless at correcting this situation.
Peter is out of the markets since last fall as he felt markets were in the largest bubble ever. It's hard for average investors to understand a real bear market. Real panic is coming, and selling could become an avalanche, and much of the money in the markets is passively managed.
Seniors could be amongst the hardest hit in this inflationary environment.
Gold will always act as a safe haven except when investors are trying to meet margin calls. Liquidity problems can result in short-lived sell-offs.
He believes both uranium and copper will do well in the coming years. He also breaks down some of the risks and rewards of junior mining and why management is key. Investors need to keep a close eye on jurisdiction of projects.
He is convinced that nuclear will become increasingly important in a world that demands energy. Uranium certainly will go up, but this may take some time.
Energy prices including gasoline will continue to be high. He notes that oil and gas equities are currently overpriced.
Miners are beaten down, and most people have limited short-term horizons. Mining is the sector where it would be difficult to lose money from here.
Peter notes that politics has become increasingly polarized, and Biden appears to have health issues. The political ramifications of who could replace the president may become an issue.
Talking Points From This Episode
Causes of inflation and why the Fed can't fix it.Utility of gold as a safe-haven asset.Outlook for uranium and copper.Miners are looking particularly good right now.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Fed's Soft Landing?3:25 - Equity Markets6:44 - Targets & Losses9:54 - Pensioners & Wages12:05 - Cryptocurrencies15:05 - PMs and Safe Assets19:01 - Producers & Mining22:45 - Miner Discipline25:03 - Management Forte26:15 - Uranium Outlook31:57 - Oil & Gas34:13 - Mining & Sentiment35:50 - Concluding Thoughts38:43 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://petergrandich.com
Peter Grandich entered Wall Street in the mid-1980s with neither formal education nor training. Within three years, he was appointed Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange member firm. He would hold positions as Chief Market Strategist, Portfolio Manager for four hedge funds, and a mutual fund that bore his name. His abilities have resulted in hundreds of media interviews, including Good Morning America, Fox News, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Financial Post, Globe and Mail, US News & World Report, New York Times, Business Week, MarketWatch, Business News Network and dozens more. In addition, he has spoken at investment conferences worldwide, edited numerous investment newsletters, and was one of the more sought-after financial commentators.
Grandich has been a member of the National Association of Christian Financial Consultants, The New York Society of Security Analysts, The Society of Quantitative Analysts, and The Markets Technician Association. He is an active supporter of Athletes in Action, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Good News International Ministries, and Catholic Athletes For Christ. Through Athletes in Action, Grandich assisted with Bible study and chapel services for the New York Giants and New York Yankees from 2002 to 2016.
His autobiography, Confessions of a Wall Street Whiz Kid, was first published in 2011 and is now on its fourth printing.
Peter Grandich resides in New Jersey with his wife, Mary, and has one daughter, Tara. In 2015, he turned a three-decade dream into a reality by opening a storefron...
Tom welcomes Francis Hunt, Founder of "The Market Sniper" back to the show.
Francis explains how markets have entirely shifted from the goldilocks globalization period under Greenspan. During that time America and much of the west outsourced their manufacturing to China. This was a deflationary force but now we are entering a time of deglobalization. This is creating the opposite effect as inflation and costs of goods increase along with interest rates.
The United States is defending its currency by letting it skyrocket while contracting the consumer economy at home. This is causing people around the world to hold onto dollars while less spending by U.S. consumers creates a dollar shortage overseas. Powell is asserting U.S. dollar dominance to discourage alternative currency systems.
Francis's term 'hyperstagflation' means killing the U.S. consumer to create a dollar shortage globally. The dollar is needed by many nations to repay dollar-denominated debts. Inflation is being exported toward Europe and the East. Equity market valuations remain overpriced historically even with the corrections in recent weeks. Expect the decline in equities to continue for some time.
Debt instruments are contracting and bonds are performing horribly. We had a blow-off top in bond valuations in March 2020 which marked a fundamental shift. 2020 was a seminal event for many markets.
He believes a super spike in dollar strength is coming which will be hard for gold. When this trend eventually reverses gold will rally.
Those claiming a future melt-up in equities appear to have missed the rally since March of 2020. Most indexes have rallied more than 100 percent in just 20 months. Investors who are waiting for a 'blow-off' top have missed the boat and are in dangerous waters. The time when the Fed finally reverses course will be longer than investors are anticipating.
He cautions that investors should be in cash until the markets have capitulated and sentiment has completely collapsed. Be careful as this correction will be deeper than many expect. Don't trade until the stimulus trade is back.
Gold is doing great when measured against all other currencies and inevitably it will do well against the dollar. Europeans are doing just fine with holding gold right now.
Politicians are introducing extreme scenarios for extreme control and these dystopian cycles are only destined to worsen.
People are being psychologically attacked and the need to diversify geographically has never been greater. Become as self-reliant as possible.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Hyperstagflation15:45 - Dollar Charts20:47 - Debt System Shift26:27 - Bretton Woods 229:42 - HVF & Fear Trade35:30 - No Market Melt-up?38:30 - Fed Reverse?43:20 - Oil Overview50:49 - Gold & Silver55:45 - Bitcoin Downside1:00:37 - Miner Outlook1:08:02 - Diversifying Globally1:16:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
His thesis on the dollar and equity markets.Why waiting for a 'melt-up' is dangerous.Dollars are the safe haven right now and be wary of equities.The next Powell pivot may take longer than most expect.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/themarketsniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper
Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade?
He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time,
Tom welcomes Chris Puplava CEO of Finacial Sense Wealth Management to the show. Chris discusses how Fed rate hikes don't always result in recessions. Chris argues there is no spare capacity in the economy to compensate for any slowdown and therefore the Fed is limited in it's ability to bring inflation under control. The November elections are always a factor and it seems like the Fed won't tighten aggressively into the fall.
Mortgage rate hikes are beginning to impact the housing markets. The interest rate pain threshold with each debt cycle has been more pronounced with every cycle.
The main inflation components today are on the supply side and a result of global shocks. Powell can't do anything about the supply of commodities and inventory levels are at or near decade lows. Naturally it takes time for manufacturing to compensate for these distortions. We're likely to see disruptions in the financial markets before the Fed reaches it's inflation goals.
The Fed can have plans but a lack of foresight often causes them to reverse their policies once something important breaks. The junk bond markets were seizing up back in 2018 and for a time the Fed appeared oblivious. This resulted in the Powell pivot in the first week of 2019.
He explains how the ISM manufaccturing index functions as a measaure of economic momentum. The Fed appears to follow this fairly close as it's a near realtime indicator.
This year the economy appears to be slowing as shown by the ISM index before the Fed began to raise rates. Institutions have been trying to dump various securities and bonds. He believes that rates are in the process of peaking right now.
Cash is the best defensive asset at the moment and it will be of most use when it's time to pick up bargains. He expects gold to rally while the dollar weakens later this year.
Talking Points From This Episode
Why the Fed will likely pivot before the fall elections.The causes of inflation and why the Fed can't influence it much.Cash positions and outlook for gold toward the end of this year.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Fed Cycles & Recessions5:19 - Fed & Inflation9:34 - Fed Course Reversal?16:05 - ISM Metrics & Slowdowns30:03 - Debt & U.S. Treasuries32:55 - Safe Havens & Cash36:12 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksWebsite: https://www.financialsense.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/FinancialSense_
Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined Financial Sense® Wealth Management in 2005 and is a Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (CRPC®) with the College for Financial Planning. Chris is also currently a level III Chartered Financial Analyst candidate. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He contributes articles to Financial Sense as well as occasional interviews and updates on Financial Sense Newshour.
Tom welcomes Paul of The Sirius Report to discuss the short-sighted policies that are driving up the costs of most commodities. The Europeans are discovering they have few alternatives to Russian oil and gas. Nordstream 2 would have doubled the amount of energy available to Germany, but they instead decided to create their problems. The green revolution brought its own problems; including reducing the best green energy, nuclear. Wind and solar come with their own problems including most panels come from China. Logically, Europe can't divest from Russian energy very quickly or perhaps at all.
In a sense, we now have a petro-ruble, and Russia may begin selling its other commodities for Rubles. There is consideration being given to backing the ruble with gold and this seems inevitable. Increasingly, global trade is being conducted in non-dollar terms.
Hiking energy costs and inflation are impacting the price of food in most countries. If manufacturing is halted due to a lack of energy then we're going to see much more unemployment. Countries are destroying their economies. Many countries are taking notice, and there is a partial collapse of trust with the West.
The United States is going to have to learn to compromise if it's going to be a part of the global economy. It needs to build strong relationships with nations that its currently at odds.
The Fed can't raise rates significantly and other central banks admitthey can't control inflation. Regardless, raising rates won't have much effect on stagflation. The entire economy now depends on debt and credit.
He discusses the risks and lack of regulation in the crypto space and how it's driven by sheer speculation.
Talking Points From This Episode
Self-inflicted energy problems in Europe and the unintended consequences of sanctions.Food production insecurity is spreading globally.Collapsing trust in the West and the damage due to seizing sovereign treasuries.Why central banks can't control inflation in a system awash in credit and debt.Concerns around cryptocurrency, stagflation, and the rapidly developing southern regions of the world.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Europe and Energy8:17 - IMF & Ruble Strength11:44 - Germany Energy Concerns13:18 - Food Production24:44 - Commodity Countries26:56 - Rare Earth Dependencies34:43 - Inflation & The Fed53:38 - Crypto & Credit Markets1:03:04 - Gold Purchasing Power1:09:12 - Counterparty Risk1:11:05 - Western Failures & Denial1:19:12 - A Sirius Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/thesiriusreportWebsite: https://www.thesiriusreport.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa5XOgYU8ac_Ai4C1QXPOIg
The Sirius Report is an independent website providing analysis and an alternative perspective on current affairs and global events that we believe are shaping a new political, economic and social paradigm. We are fully self-funded and are not backed by any third-party corporation, organization, or individual.
The site is run by 'London Paul' and his partner Lisa, who is the site administrator. 'London Paul' is a pseudonym that was first coined by long-time friend and fellow commentator Jim Willie. For privacy reasons, Paul prefers not to be known by his real name. He also feels that the primary focus should be on his work rather than on his identity.
Paul has a long track record of accurate predictions and analyses on geopolitical and economic affairs. Originally a physicist, he was awarded a Ph.D. in biomolecular physics, after which he spent some time working in academia. He then went on to work in the financial services sector and worked in some major banks until the financial crisis of 2008, when he left the banking sector to work in the precious metals sector. In addition to his vast understanding of economics and precious metals (a friend of his once jokingly said that 'Paul is the only person I know who really understands derivatives'),
Tom welcomes back Richard Duncan to the show. Richard is a macroeconomist and the author of four books on the global economic crisis including his most recent "The Money Revolution".
He started writing his new book at the beginning of 2018 and it was nearly complete but then the pandemic started. Global events necessitated a pause in writing the book to see how things would play out. In total Richard took four years to write it.
The book discusses the history of money and credit and the lessons that can be learned from the history of the Federal Reserve. Everyone must understand how the Fed functions because it's likely the most important corporation in the world. It determines globally what happens to markets and economies. The book discusses the total credit of the United States which includes all debt by all entities. In 1974 that was one trillion by 2008 we were at 50 trillion. Today we're over 90 trillion dollars and this has fundamentally changed the nature of our economic system.
Our economic system today should be called creditism because the system today no longer utilizes capital savings. We are addicted to credit growth. Whenever credit contracts we enter a recession or depression economically.
The book discusses the causes of inflation and deflation. It reveals that in recent decades changes in the money supply haven't impacted inflation that much. The key has been globalization which has been highly deflationary. Inflation is not just a monetary phenomenon as it is often affected by surprise supply shocks like Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
He dives deeply into explaining a possible way out of our current economic quagmire. By leveraging growth via funding improvements in technology, research, and manufacturing.
Talking Points From This Episode
Overview of his latest book.Departing the gold standard and the rise of creditism.Why inflation is not always a monetary phenomenon.Fixing the future by researching and improving technology.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Book Overview9:00 - Credit-ism10:53 - Solutions12:00 - Globalization & Deflation24:00 - Fixing The Future27:33 - Dollar Scenarios30:00 - Growth & Innovation31:20 - Investment Programs38:00 - Government Action?41:30 - Incentivizing45:40 - Energy & Environment48:40 - Manufacturing & Tech.51:20 - His Book & Macrowatch55:55 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PaperMoneyEconBook: https://richardduncaneconomics.com/the-money-revolution/#order-window
Newsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.comHit subscribe and enter coupon code 'Value' For a 50% discount.
Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008: its causes, the rationale for the government’s policy response to the crisis, and likely future developments.
His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022). The first two parts of the book describe the evolution of Money and Credit over the last century. These include a detailed history of the Federal Reserve since its establishment in 1913 and a discussion of the transformation of our econ...
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
The markets are bottoming, fear is high, and from here the bond markets will be setting the tone.Expectations for the Fed and the likelihood of them over-correcting.The coming melt-up rally, its causes, and the effects of supercycles.David's energy forecasts were affected by the Ukraine conflict as were other commodities but he expects the effect to be short-lived.De-dollarization and why the dollar may be topping.Targets for precious metals during the melt-up.The bust and how an 80% bear market will shape out.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - Recent Corrections?4:50 - Melt-Up Rally8:58 - Fed & Hiking Problems10:35 - Rates & Housing12:55 - CPI Figures15:38 - Energy & Inflation17:51 - Market & Cycle Calls22:54 - Investor Sentiment31:00 - Ukraine & The U.S. Dollar36:38 - Metals & Relative Strength38:54 - The Deflationary Bust42:34 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksEmail: Dhunter31@gmail.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
Andy discusses how everything in markets comes down to supply and demand. Logistics, contracts, and shipping are all essential factors in trade. Markets are complex and risk mitigation is important especially with the fluctuating prices of commodities. Sometimes margins are tight, and companies can easily lose money particularly if they're not hedged accordingly.
Andy explains the mechanisms for hedging ,which gives both parties security around price. It's a matter of balancing a hedge versus the exposure to the commodity being sold.
The recent activity in the nickel market is important for steel producers. He discusses some of the causes for the recent action in these markets. Banks are now heavily involved speculating in these markets, and we're seeing disconnects between what is physically available compared to what is promised. Paper is traded by speculators but physical supply is often entirely different.
He explains what backwardation and contango are in commodity markets.
Natural gas was supposed to be a transitionary energy supply for the green movement. Andy explains how the energy markets are badly functioning in Europe. Europe is now looking for alternative energy supplies but many of these 'solutions' bring their own problems. Russia will increase pipelines to China and China will continue to compete in the global markets. Russia may end up losing because they will only have a few customers.
He discusses the models around green energy and why their won't be enough commodities to meet these goals. Alternatives will come as some metals become too expensive. People can become creative when commodities become over priced. We may see some producers become directly involved in the mining of key metals. Recycling will become increasingly important.
Stocks will need to realize the impact of inflation. The Fed has tools but there not producing anything but disasters. Inflation will continue and the Fed is not the solution to fix our economy.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - Commodities & Logistics9:23 - Nickel Problems13:20 - Backwardation & Contango16:39 - Money as a Commodity22:03 - Measuring Risk - VAR28:44 - Exchanges & Inventories32:55 - Pricing Shipping37:19 - Market Makers39:20 - Energy Market Volatility42:42 - Developing World47:04 - Green Energy Future50:40 - System is Broken53:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why supply and demand are the ultimate drivers of commodities.The importance of hedging mechanisms in business.Green energy and why technology will have to find alternatives to certain commodities.Impacts of green energy in Europe and why Russia may be isolated as Europe finds alternatives.
Andy has nearly 30 years experience. Nineteen years experience working at Glencore and nine years for LaFarge a large cement company in shipping and trading.
As part of our continuing series on Geology, Tom welcomes geologist Ronald Parratt to the show. Ronald has been fascinated by rocks and after taking chemistry classes discovered that his real interest lay in the field of geology. He completed a masters degree in geology after taking three years off working in the field. He remembers when Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard and he witnessed the rise in the price of gold. He became involved in new types of gold discoveries and methods for extracting it like heap leaching. This discovery created a huge increase in gold extraction in Nevada. The United States produces more gold today than at any period before.
Ron discusses the new types of deposits the world needs around lithium and have been found in clay lake beds. Some of these should be in production in the coming years. Sometimes you find 'gold' in some rocks like carlin mineralization that was unexpected. Understanding the chemical, minerology, alteration phases is key. Some deposits have well understood geological models but some deposits aren't as well understood.
He discusses how he became involved in the Long Canyon project and how the system interested him. It seemed like a good bet for a junior company and it panned out and that story continues today.
His first discovery of merit was in 1987 at Rabbit Creek. He discusses the different approaches he took over his career to find significant deposits.
Nevada has always been a pretty good place to work for mining. Geologically it has the right types of intrusive rocks and are relatively young features. Nevada has a lot of geothermal energy production and they continue to find these systems which are often turned into power plants. These systems are likely the causative reason for the gold deposits.
He explains the process involved in heap leaching gold deposits and how it came to be developed.
The major mining companies prefer tier one large deposits that will provide a long mine life. Mines take a long time and effort to develop so larger deposits are always preferred.
Ron explains how he approaches projects and factors he considers when evaulating equity opportunity in companies. Lastly, he says "Focus on the people first."
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - His Background5:30 - New Discoveries10:30 - Long Canyon13:53 - Project Strategies19:26 - Nevada's Features22:12 - Mining Disclosures25:18 - Favorite Times27:09 - Heap Leaching Process31:20 - Project Steps & Economics36:58 - Majors & Big Deposits38:46 - Evaluating Projects45:10 - Drill Results46:48 - Resource Estimates48:47 - Investing Red Flags50:30 - Investor Timing53:32 - Price & Properties55:50 - Takeover Strategies57:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
His background in geology and the invention of heap leaching.Types of deposits and geological systems.The Benefits of mining in Nevada.Developing a junior company into a takeover target of majors.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MineEngineeringWebsite: https://me.smenet.org/Website: https://www.miningamerica.org/
Ronald L. Parratt is currently Executive Chairman of Renaissance Gold Inc, a TSX.V listed, Nevada-based junior gold/silver exploration company. Ron has over 35 years of exploration experience for precious metals including service with Santa Fe Pacific Gold, Homestake Mining Company, and AuEx Ventures. During his years of precious metals experience, Ron had direct involvement in the discovery of the Rabbit Creek (now Twin Creeks), Lone Tree, Trenton Canyon, Gold Hill, and Long Canyon gold deposits- all in Nevada.
Ron is a Certified Professional Geologist with the American Institute of Professional Geologists, a Registered Geologist in California, and a Professional Geologist in Wyoming. He is a graduate of Purdue University with degrees in geochemistry and economic geology. He is a Fellow of the Society of Economic Geologists, a 40+ year member of SME,
Tom welcomes commodities expert and researcher David Forest to the show. David is a writer for Casey Research and CEO of Ivor Exploration.
David discusses the super spike phenomena in commodities which happen at the end of other general bull markets. The phase that follows usually impacts energy prices and brings further economic issues. Energy commodities including coal are now doing quite well. The third phase is where the precious metals outperform.
Europe is blaming natural gas prices but they were already moving quite high before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The reality is that Europe just doesn't have enough energy to go around. Recently, markets have seen the first options trades for $300 oil.
Uranium is the only metal that has a hockey stick production cost curve. Most of it doesn't cost much to produce in Canada and Kazakhstan. However, if more uranium needs to be produced it will need much higher prices for other projects to become economical. In this sense, the Sprott SPUT could be useful to help build new production with higher prices. It may help to smooth out prices for the long term.
Uranium is increasingly likely to become a strategic metal that governments will want to source close to home. We see this with rare earths and it didn't need to be this way. We legislated production of these metals to zero and therefore mining migrated to China.
He discusses the growing trend of green electrification and the increasing need for copper. We also require grid storage battery solutions. We could even see partnerships between major manufacturers and resource companies wanting to secure metal supplies.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Green Energy Transition4:05 - Natural Gas Supply6:08 - Energy Metals8:20 - Uranium SPUT11:51 - Catalysts for Uranium14:42 - Strategic Metals17:24 - Inflation Protection20:39 - Electrification & Copper25:40 - E.V. Realities29:18 - Manufacturer Partnerships35:33 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://ivorexploration.comWebsite: https://caseyresearch.com
David Forest is a geologist who has worked professionally in mining and petroleum over a 20-year career. He has also bridged his technical expertise into the finance and investment sector, originally joining Casey Research in 2004 when he founded the Casey Energy Speculator dedicated to finding high-potential investment opportunities in oil, natural gas, uranium, and renewables globally.
He has founded his own mineral exploration and development companies, raising over $80 million in equity financing from some of the most well-known resource investors in North America. His past successes include the development of a 10-million-ounce gold deposit in Colombia, as well as becoming the first to be granted a modern exploration license in the emerging economy of Myanmar, Southeast Asia. He also served as Managing Director of Notela Resource Advisors, an advisory firm analyzing and designing global investment opportunities in the natural resource sector.
Dave continues to travel extensively — particularly in Latin America and Asia — reviewing resource projects and investment opportunities. His recent visits included Brazil, Mongolia, Myanmar, China, Russia, Colombia, Peru, Nevada, Laos, Zambia, Madagascar, Indonesia, Portugal, and the Czech Republic.
Tom welcomes back Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show.
Alf explains his global credit impulse model which measures capital flows during the credit creation cycles of central banks. We are currently in the third part of this cycle where you need to be defensive. He's currently short some equities and expects a drop in housing prices. Investors should increase their dollar reserves and consider holding gold.
When things improve then credit becomes more available which increases economic activity but simultaneously begins to build risk. Stability therefore inevitably leads to instability due to leverage and margin calls. We're seeing some of this activity now brewing beneath the surface.
He explains how credit spreads work in his educational materials on his website. Spreads are important for corporate lending and are used to assess the creditworthiness of the borrower. When these spreads widen corporations have to pay more due to perceived risk. Higher lending costs may impact business models and result in companies losing access to credit. Currently, these spreads are widening.
Many zombie businesses will soon go under, and this will impact equities. These companies will be unable to afford higher rates. The weakest market is probably the Russell 2000, but most will be affected. Many companies have cash flow and valuation problems.
He explains the term bond vigilantes and the idea behind global macro vigilantes.
He expects a recession to hit Europe this year, and we already see consumer purchasing power declining. Europe is also heavily affected by energy inflation. The Euro is starting to reflect this economic weakness.
Real estate markets are looking weak globally, and they are likely to drop somewhat in the coming months.
He discusses where markets and gold should head in the coming months. Much of it will depend on the direction of inflation, bonds, and the Fed's policies.
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
The four quadrants of his global credit impulse model.Why stability tends to create instability in credit markets.Outlook for Europe and the global real estate markets.Factors that will affect gold include bonds and Fed policy.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - His Macro Model3:16 - Defensive Trades4:29 - Stability Vs. Instability7:30 - Credit Spreads10:55 - Equities & Impacts16:40 - Global Macro Vigilante19:36 - Yen Performance25:05 - Europe & Recession27:19 - C.B. Credit Rating29:45 - Fed Hikes & Real Estate34:56 - Getting Defensive36:45 - Safe Havens & Risks42:08 - Deflation Event?43:52 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.
Tom welcomes silver aficionado Peter Krauth to the program. Peter is a Silver Investor, Analyst, and author of the book 'The Great Silver Bull'.
Peter feels the Fed is largely trapped between inflation and being unable to raise rates by much. Inflation will continue to run and people will have to get used to it. We're looking at prices doubling in just a few years. If they don't want their retirement stolen they better look at inflation hedges.
He feels silver is very undervalued compared to almost any other metal. Silver remains the only metal that is still below its 1980 high and on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Silver is volatile but that's not a good reason to not have exposure. Silver is utilized 55% by industry and three quarters come from the production of other metals as a by-product. If the price of silver rises it may not have much effect on the producer's margins.
In 2020 when the pandemic started and there was a lot of interest in silver the ETFs brought in 330 million ounces. This was four times the previous year's levels. ETF units tend to stick around and the number of ounces tends to remain in these funds.
Silver tends to outperform gold during a bull market and this may be caused by the perception of high gold prices. They feel like they get more with silver instead and it becomes a natural alternative.
He discusses the best macro factors for gold and why real rates are very telling of where precious metals will head. He also provides us with a chart that compares home prices with silver and why that could be an opportunity.
He discusses some warning signs that silver may be peaking at price. Also, a gold-silver ratio of 30 along with the Dow to silver ratio could be an important signal. If you look at these indicators together it should paint a pretty clear signal.
Peter believes that CBDC will exacerbate inflation problems because it will make printing and distributing money easier.
Physical gold and silver have no counterparty risk and no risk from a lack of internet or electricity. They are private and have all the ideal characteristics of what money should be.
Lastly, he provides some general advice on how investors may want to weigh their portfolio in silver and miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Inflationary Outlook1:48 - Silver Opportunity4:16 - Silver Pricing6:26 - Quirky Supply9:28 - Sticky Money11:57 - Silver in a Bull Market13:42 - Gold-Silver Ratio15:40 - Macro Factors17:34 - Housing Prices & Silver19:12 - Silver Peak Indicators22:05 - Future Demand & CBDC26:53 - Canada & Cap. Controls28:06 - Be Your Own Bank30:27 - Pensions & Metal Holdings32:36 - Silver Portfolio MAP34:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Overview of the silver markets and their role with inflation.Ratio charts and why silver remains undervalued.Importance of having silver exposure and weighting your portfolio.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/peter_krauthWebsite: https://www.thegreatsilverbull.comWebsite: https://www.silverstockinvestor.comAmazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09YYZT32S
Peter Krauth is the author of The Great Silver Bull and editor of the silver-focused investment newsletter Silver Stock Investor. Krauth has written about investing in silver for more than 20 years, using his extensive industry network to uncover outstanding opportunities. As a precious metals expert, he is a frequent contributor to financial websites such as Kitco and Forbes. He is a regular presenter and moderator at investment conferences, such as the Metals Investor Forum.
Tom welcomes Professor of Applied Economics Steve Hanke to the show. He discusses learning the intricacies of the commodity markets at a young age and over his career.
Gold tends to have a fairly steady interest, particularly since the closing of the gold window in 1971. Gold in one way or another will always be a part of the international financial system.
The economics profession considers 50% inflation and up as the textbook definition of hyperinflation. There have been sixty-two such hyperinflations throughout history. They always occur when fiscal deficits become very large, and governments involved can't finance those deficits through taxes or bonds. Governments end up running the proverbial printing press. Recent hyperinflations include Yugoslavia in 1994 where they reached 313 million percent per month. The former Soviet states had problems with not having tax systems or access to international markets. The last hyperinflation occurred in Venezuela.
He discusses how the 2008 hyperinflation in Zimbabwe ended up completely collapsing, and the local population switched to the dollar.
We are currently in an era of money printing, and we've had a forty-one percent increase in the money supply. Even now we're still increasing the money supply at nearly ten percent when we should be around six.
Steve explains the five different factors that are affecting commodity prices. These coupled together are creating a perfect cocktail for a new supercycle in commodities.
He discusses the impacts of the Fed's policies and why much of the Fed's current problems are with the excessive liquidity held by commercial banks. This liquidity makes it difficult for the Fed to contract the money supply any time soon. The Fed and government are the main reasons for inflation although the media is currently blaming everything else including Putin.
Japan and Switzerland have very low inflation currently and this suggests their money supply isn't growing. Growth in the money supply is always the cause of inflation.
Steve discusses his sentiment indicator which measures the global opinion of gold. It's based on a computer analysis of news articles and can change quite rapidly.
He explains his 95% rule which states that 95% of the information in the press is wrong or irrelevant.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Background5:13 - Attitudes & Gold7:45 - Hyperinflations14:56 - Dollar & Inflation17:30 - Excess Money Supply23:38 - Five Commodity Drivers28:08 - Fed Policy & Rates35:42 - Energy & Money Supply40:08 - Fed & Flation Fears42:52 - Milton Friedman44:32 - Fiscal Constraints49:50 - Gold & Inflation55:35 - Gold Sentiment Indicator1:11:35 - Solutions & Simplicity
Talking Points From This Episode
His background and early interest in commodity markets.Defining hyperinflation and its primary causes.Five factors that are creating the next commodity supercycle.His sentiment indicator for gold and how it works.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/steve_hankeWebsite: https://thegoldsentimentreport.comWebsite: https://www.cato.org/people/hanke.htmlWebsite: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/about/co-directors/
Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
He is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., a Senior Advisor at the Renmin University of China’s International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing, a Special Counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York, a contributing editor at Central Banking in London, and a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal’s Opinion pages. Prof. Hanke is also a member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk’s Experts Panel.
In the past, Prof.
Tom welcomes geologist and Chairman of Kodiak Copper, Chris Taylor to the show. Chris discusses his family background in minerals and how that lead him to become interested in geology.
Chris explains the differences between structural geology and exploration. Structural geology tries to unravel how rock layers formed while exploration is more of a search for new deposits. The two fields have a natural relationship.
Chris describes the history of Great Bear and his twelve years of developing the project. He became CEO and did a lot of restructuring. Then they found the Dixie project and the rest is history. They purchased the project in 2015 for $200k and we're able to develop it into a 1.8 billion dollar asset. 3D modeling of the data was key to understanding the site and they were able to determine that it had excellent potential.
Keeping the company afloat was difficult but buying when the market was quite weak helped. Those shareholders that invested early saw huge returns. First, they were looking for a project in the right location where a mine could be practical. Second, they wanted the correct types of geology and a site with significant historical data. They had enough data to realize that the site had been misunderstood geologically.
One key thing they did was utilize oriented drill cores which helped in targeting the resource. Projects with too much drill activity can be risky because it may indicate poor management and capital allocation.
For explorers, transparency is vital when it comes to drilling results. Great Bear's open approach differed from many other companies.
He discusses the importance of analyzing drill results and some of the potential red flags in the industry. Look for companies with detailed cross-sections where you can understand the grades and complexities of a site.
Chris discusses how the discovery of the 'hinge zone' brought a lot of investor interest but also skepticism. When they reached around a hundred drill holes the interest levels became very high.
He describes how the royalty mechanism helped to unlock the potential of the project in the eyes of financiers.
It's important to have a team that you can easily work with who are self-motivated, independent-minded, professional, and competent. The incentives are important for success.
Lastly, Chris discusses his history with Kodiak Copper and where that project may be heading. He enjoys the exploration business because you can make value out of almost nothing.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:38 - Efficiency & Regulations3:24 - Geology & Exploration4:57 - Mentors6:17 - Great Bear & Lessons10:25 - Timing12:08 - Dixie Lake Features15:12 - Size, Grade & Depth16:48 - Drill Targets20:15 - Understanding Results23:23 - Major Investor Interest24:50 - Project Offers25:37 - Royalty Creation30:03 - Herding Cats & Dogs32:03 - Shared Vision33:10 - Kodiak Copper Plans34:57 - Advice for Geologists36:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Chris's background in minerals, mining, and geology.What is required to find and build a successful explorer.Things to look for when evaluating junior resource companies.Importance of management and the need for dedicated employees.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/KodiakCopperCoWebsite: https://kodiakcoppercorp.com
Chris Taylor is a structural and economic geologist and mining entrepreneur with over 20 years of experience with both producers and exploration companies. He was President and Director of Great Bear Resources Ltd from December 2010. He is currently Chairman of TSX.V listed Kodiak Copper Corp. and formerly a geologist with Imperial Metals, Inc., a TSXV company from 2004 to 2009. Mr. Taylor graduated with a Bachelor of Science honors degree in Earth Sciences in 2000, and a Master of Science degree in Structural Geology from Carleton University in 2003.
Tom welcomes Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg back to the show. Henrik is seeing a blow-off top coming which will unfold over mid-summer. This will be followed by a deflationary bust which will take everything down. We're going to see devastating stagflation coming later. Trades are based on human emotion, and the algos also look for these patterns.
Henrik discusses where we are at based on Elliot Wave theory. It's indicating a mega deflationary bust coming soon. The Fed will accelerate the bust because they will hike rates too quickly. The inflationary spike we have had will reverse.
Kondratieff winters normally come with conflict and Henrik shares a cycle chart that demonstrates this phase. Winters are normally deflationary and come with periods of high unemployment, pension problems, currency death, and trade wars. Many of these effects are still coming. The world is trying to squeeze the last bit of growth out of the economic system.
Henrik explains where he thinks the dollar will head from here and why the long-term trend will continue to be lower. We could reach the 116 area, and then we will see the decline. Nothing moves in a straight line.
He believes we are in a correction phase of the bull marketm and this gives room for a blow-off and crash later this year. We need five waves and he can only count four on the current charts. Volatility has been declining which indicates we are not yet in a crash. He shows the evidence for why we are not yet in a crash. Market liquidity will be vital for a blow-off top, and China has recently begun stimulus. It will be risk-on driven, and we could see one further run in stocks and crypto.
Henrik discusses what assets he considers safe in the coming correction. The Fed will intervene once again, and they will attempt to pump up the bubbles again. That's when he will be long gold and silver miners. In the meantime, he expects a significant correction in gold.
Lastly, he discusses Russia and its effects on the dollar and why the world needs a new currency system, perhaps based on blockchain.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Markets Overview4:40 - Algos & H.F. Trading11:16 - Kondratieff Winter18:26 - The Dollar23:34 - Blow-Off Top Hypothesis25:02 - Correction Evidence31:00 - Inflation & Consumption35:50 - Blow Off Drivers38:33 - Safe Havens & Gold47:32 - Energy & Deflation50:12 - Dollar & Russia55:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
His thesis for a blow-off top and why so far we are in correction not a crash.Kondratieff Winter Cycle and Elliot Wave theory.His picks for safe-haven assets in the coming bust.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HenrikZebergWebsite: https://www.thezebergreport.com/
Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. You can find out more about his newsletter on his Website.
Tom welcomes back David Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics to the show.
Dave argues that the weekly economic data is indicative of the U.S. already in a recession. Eighty percent of all U.S. households have been experiencing the characteristics of a recession. Credit card usage is spiking and this is likely because people are relying on them to make ends meet. Inflation remains rampant at double digits.
It seems unlikely that the Fed will conduct quantitative tightening. Government spending deficit continues to balloon. This year's tax receipts will likely be down and the deficits will only increase. Who will be buying that debt other than the Fed?
In addition, there appear to be major problems occurring behind the curtains with the credit markets. The quality of corporate credit is deteriorating quickly.
We've been seeing a slow steady shift away from the dollar for the past decade. China has been utilizing its own currency in bilateral trade for some time. China has increased the size of its Asian trading markets so they are now less reliant on trade with the United States.
The derivatives markets are the Achilles heel of the system. An example is the paper 'gold' derivatives versus the actual physical markets. They rely on investors leaving their 'metal' on the exchanges. Their worst nightmare would be for numerous funds and investors to demand delivery.
He discusses what happens when general investors start moving into the miners and the outsized returns one can expect.
Dave discusses the lack of investigation of fraud by the SEC. Every market cycle seems to make these investigations less likely. A lot of fraud continues to be perpetuated and there is a revolving door between government and corporations.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:26 - Recession is Here4:18 - Household Debt7:14 - Quant Tightening11:00 - Dollar Status16:23 - The Achilles Heel19:30 - Comex Terms21:06 - Recent Sell-Off28:58 - Gold Movements35:56 - Taking Profits37:00 - Physical Demand42:27 - Elon, Tesla & Twitter48:34 - SEC & Corruption54:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Declining economic data and why we're in a recession already.Fed is unlikely to conduct Quantitative Tightening.The U.S. dollar and China's continued trade diversification.Why derivatives are the Achilles heel for the system.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/InvResDynamicsWebsite: https://investmentresearchdynamics.comNewsletter: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/mining-stock-journal
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master's degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
Tom welcomes Serafino Iacono to the show. Serafino is the executive Chairman of GCM Mining and the founder of numerous other resource companies.
Even ignoring most factors around energy Sarafino states that we can see serious problems with the industry for the past ten years. We have a growing world demanding more energy since many parts are rapidly developing. Western nations are not living in reality and have divested away from energy and resource company development. The consequences are being felt now. Consumption continues to rise and few are figuring out how and where we will get these vital resources.
He discusses the importance of finding sustainable solutions to reduce the excessive need for plastics. We should be using glass and paper products as we have done in the past. Products shouldn't be merely disposable instead they should be repairable and re-used. The world needs balance.
Natural gas is needed because it's good transitional energy. Coal will still have an important role in global energy. Metals that used to be ordinary are becoming increasingly strategic. These include nickel, zinc, and lithium. In addition, there isn't enough copper to meet the demands of electrification. Vast quantities will be needed for car chargers and electric vehicle infrastructure.
He discusses the importance of magnesium in strengthening aluminum and the consequences of dramatically rising prices.
The entire world is realigning with other countries and adjusting their priorities. The events in Russia and Ukraine have only sped up a process that was already occurring. Metals are becoming increasingly strategic and are being sourced closer to where they used in industry. Many countries' laws are changing to prevent the export of these critical metals. Whoever invests in metals will make fortunes over the next twenty to thirty years.
He discusses how technology has improved the metal extraction business and reduced the environmental impacts. Technology is key to improving metal recovery. Lastly, Serafino discusses which countries he prefers and dislikes in Latin America.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:55 - Energy Crisis6:49 - Developing World10:35 - Sustainability17:26 - Modern Metals22:58 - Magnesium25:52 - Geopolitics30:12 - Metal Cycles33:24 - Poly Metal Deposits34:52 - Tech & Extracting36:49 - Project Difficulties39:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Energy and the consequences of a lack of capital investment.The need for sustainable, reusable products.Why metals are becoming increasingly strategic.Technology's importance in resources and metal extraction.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.grancolombiagold.com.co/Website: https://www.gcm-mining.com/Website: https://ngenergyintl.com/Website: https://www.denariusmetals.com/
Serafino Iacono is the Executive Chairman of GCM Mining and has over thirty years of experience in capital markets and public companies. He has raised more than four billion dollars for numerous natural resource projects internationally. He is currently a director and chairman of Western Atlas Resources Inc. and is a former Co-Chairman and an Executive Director of Pacific Exploration and Production Corporation and a former director of Petromagdalena Energy Corp. Mr. Iacono was also a co-founder of Bolivar Gold Corp and Pacific Stratus Energy, among others, and is involved in numerous resource and business ventures in Latin America, Canada and United States.
Tom welcomes back John Adams to the show. John is an economist and internationally recognized thought leader. He is the Chief Economist for As Good As Gold Australia.
John discusses in-depth his legal interactions with Kitco over the past ten months and how he was threatened under Australian libel laws. Kitco claimed to have severe damages from John's tweets which questioned the nature of various companies' unallocated fractional reserve metal offerings. Kitco claimed damages but failed to disclose their nature. Numerous other individuals worldwide have also questioned Kitco's offerings. Kitco's legal firm failed to respond to the majority of John's legal questions.
John eventually received a surprising response from Kitco legal firm Dentons which claimed that threats of violence had been made against employee(s) of said firm. The threats came from someone "acting in response to the incendiary rhetoric and vilification of Kitco and Dentons in your client's social media postings." They further stated they had referred the matter to Law enforcement, specifically the NSW Police. John contacted the NSW Police with an offer to answer any questions but law enforcement never followed up. At this point, the matter is assumed to be closed as many months have now passed.
Lastly, John discusses the risks of having metals in unallocated pool accounts and why these programs don't provide legal ownership.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Questions5:28 - Denton's Notice11:20 - Injurious Falsehood16:50 - John's Response31:00 - Threat's to Dentons38:04 - John's Superpowers43:50 - State of Claims45:45 - Educating & Legal Title49:12 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.asgoodasgoldaus.com.au/Blog: https://www.adamseconomics.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/adamseconomicsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzwmB2wn8Slp3hko2Gpj2iALinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jadams1796/
John Adams is an internationally recognized thought leader and has extensive public policy, political, management consulting, and media experience. John brings a wealth of diverse skills and experiences across several industries in driving organizational and public policy outcomes.
As Chief Economist at As Good As Gold Australia, he provides analysis and commentary through economic articles and online interviews. The Australian and global economies are well into unchartered waters, awash with unprecedented levels of debt.
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis.
Michael notes that gold has not participated in the recent volatility and instead front ran most other commodities. He discusses the recent activity of markets and the impact on gold.
Michael discusses his call from October 2020 for a commodity explosion and how that played out. Commodities will have occasional pullbacks but but we in a new long-term bull market.
He discusses the crude market and how it was already moving late last year before Ukraine occurred. Crude could get quite volatile from here. Natural Gas broke out last year which signaled a major shift in markets. It may be at a fairly low-risk entry point and seems overdue to catch up.
Silver woke up in the summer of 2020 taking out a ceiling it had built. After that momentum cooled off with the price entering a trading range. Should we close out on the weekly above 26.50 you can expect a rapid breakout. Should gold ever move to $8000 then silver would be around $200. Silver has not collapsed but has bored everyone.
Michael discusses how the dollar index isn't an index. Movements in the dollar index don't directly relate to the dollar. The DXY is heavily weighted toward the Euro which reduces its usefulness. Try comparing currencies directly instead of relying on the weighted metrics of the DXY index.
They expect the commodity-based currencies to do well, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars.
Stock markets and gold are currently inversely related, and the Fed is going to have to be careful. They want to raise rates so they can pull back once again. The next leg down for stocks will likely mean a new leg up for gold. Michael would not be surprised if the Fed is out of business inside of four years.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Recent Volatility5:25 - Commodity Explosion13:04 - Momentum & Support22:18 - Sugar Outlook24:50 - Silver Lagging32:59 - Weekly Gold Sentiment38:12 - DXY, the Dollar, & Gold42:29 - AUD, CAD & Commodities42:59 - Stock Markets & Gold48:34 - Institutional Moves52:12 - Gold & Bitcoin55:07 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Momentum and calling the breakout in commodities.Energy markets and why we can expect volatility in crude.Thoughts on silver and why gold does not correlate well with DXY.Current inverse relationship between equity markets and gold.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSAAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5Free Report email: michaeloliver@olivermsa.com
Email MSA above, and they will send you this week's report for free, which covers many of the topics from this interview.
J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton's International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City's Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton's Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank's Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.
Tom welcomes returning guest Michael Gayed, Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management. Michael is the author and publisher of the Lead-Lag Report.
Michael discusses the inflationary picture for the economy and the hellish performance of the bond markets. We're seeing large drawdowns in bonds and severe pain in fixed-income bonds. Negative real rates have been a problem for a while and the problems in this sector have broad implications. Yields spiking and bond sell-offs will increase the cost of financing. These costs will reduce the income of most companies and countries.
Europe is likely already in a recession and the United States may also have reached that point. He discusses the normal signs of recession and why the stock markets may not care.
We see a strong dollar with strong commodity demand which is an interesting phenomena. It seems unlikely that the Fed can control inflation and higher interest rates are not going to help countries get more grain.
Michael believes that unions are likely to make a long-term come back. It's difficult for the United States to produce many products at reasonable prices due to the cost of labor. It takes years to build up resources and manufacturing sectors. Most people today are looking for instant gratification.
Rating agencies may be forced to begin downgrading companies, particularly in this environment. They are seeing a lot of abnormal market relationships but eventually, markets will correct for these conditions.
He discusses his expectations for commodities and further money printing. Michael notes there is considerable infrastructure crumbling around the world.
We don't know the true prices for food given the current circumstances. However, we've been heading toward a food crisis for many years due to a lack of investment.
All of the current global problems will take considerable time to play out. Keep an eye on mortgage rates and housing because that may be the area where there is a considerable concern.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - Inflation Factors3:50 - Yield Curve & Recession5:47 - Supply Chains & Rates9:10 - Wages and Prices11:46 - Rates & Debt Servicing17:33 - Market Relationships22:12 - Conflict Priced In?25:19 - Institutions and Funds28:42 - Commodity Demand?31:52 - Sanction Consequences34:09 - Housing Market Concerns37:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Thoughts on how inflation will play out and the state of bond markets.Why we may already be in a recession.Lack of capital investment in resources and farming will take time to correct.Keep a close watch on housing markets as a correction seems likely.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.leadlagreport.com/Website: http://torosoinv.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/theleadlagreport
Michael A. Gayed, CFA, is Portfolio Manager at Toroso Asset Management, an award-winning author and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report.
Michael is a well-respected results-oriented Investment Manager showcasing 15 years of successfully executing initiatives that result in significant revenue growth. In addition, he is known for identifying and implementing various investment strategies to capture market anomalies while maintaining a business mindset beyond portfolio management.
Michael offers a proven track record of evaluating business/investment opportunities, and quickly understanding market dynamics and relationships. He is also an out-of-the-box thinker committed to strengthening organizations' financial performance through dedicated hard work and a passion for investing.
He is a graduate of (Cum Laude) NYU Stern School of Business with a Double Major in Finance & Management and has a Bachelor of Science in Finance & Management. In addition, he is a Chartered Financial Analyst from the CFA Institute.
This is a recording of our live Twitter Spaces event from April 8, 2022. This is the second half of the five hour presentation. Featuring David Morgan, The Happy Hawaaiian and Steve Penny. We also take several listener questions.
Be part of the conversation! Our next live event will occur Tuesday April 19, 2022 at 7PM EST on Twitter. https://twitter.com/palisadesradio
This is a recording of a live Twitter Spaces event from April 8, 2022. This first part features Bob Coleman and Tom Luongo discussing the metals markets and the political and economic situation in the United States. Part Two features David Morgan, The Happy Hawaiian and Steve Penny. In Part Two coming out soon we also take listener questions.
Be part of the conversation! Our next live event will occur Tuesday April 19, 2022 at 7PM EST on Twitter. https://twitter.com/palisadesradio
Tom welcomes Gerald Celente Trends Forecaster and Founder of the Trends Reach Institute back to the show.
Gerald lays out how he truly feels about the pandemic and the resulting actions of governments around the world. One country after another is acting in lockstep attempting to 'flatten the curve' by locking you down and putting you out of business. Then the vaccines came but largely seemed to do worse than nothing. We adopted the Chinese way of taking away freedoms.
The repo markets showed just how rigged the markets are and we've seen the massive amounts pumped into the system. He says, "When all else fails they take you to war."
The inflation calculations are all fake and currently very understated. They've rigged the game because the social security numbers are based on these figures. Keeping the 'numbers' low also helps keep rates low so the banks can continue their activity. Our freedoms are being robbed from us.
Gerald believes inflation will continue to get worse in part due to what has happened in Ukraine. Inflation has gone from temporary to transitory to something else. They are keeping the game going because they know if they stop the monetary methadone the system will crash. We have a crime syndicate running the West. He says, "Banksters, big tech, and drug dealers with big pharma are in control of a country near you."
They are going to have to raise interest rates but he expects only a mild decline in housing prices. Housing will likely be held up by the high inflation. He describes the downtown commercial core of New York as almost dead at night. "Now you can park anywhere you want at any time of day."
The mainstream media lies about everything and we've seen that numerous times during the conflict. They're called presstitutes for a reason. These 'journalists' are being paid to spew their master's narratives. NATO broke its promise to not move eastwards and now we see the results. He is totally opposed to the invasion but he understands why Russia did it.
There isn't enough talk about peace instead we're sending lethal weapons around the world.
Lastly, for Gerald wealth protection means gold, silver, and bitcoin in that order. He discusses the importance of being prepared and having a bug-out plan.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - Shanghai'd5:48 - Repo Markets8:30 - CPI & Inflation10:33 - Monetary Methadone14:13 - Rate Hikes & Politics17:50 - Hedonic Adj. Pizza18:24 - Mainstream Message22:01 - Imploding Currencies?22:51 - War - West Vs. East25:42 - Safe Haven Assets27:21 - Bug Out Plan29:56 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The pandemic and adopting China's model.The System is failing and they are taking the world to war.Inflation, CPI numbers, and low-interest rates.His concerns around the future and why you should have safe assets and an exit plan.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/geraldcelenteWebsite: https://trendsresearch.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/gcelenteApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gerald-celente-trends-in-the-news/id1453893108Substack: https://trendsinthenews.substack.com
Gerald Celente is the Founder/Director of the Trends Research Institute and publisher of the weekly Trends Journal magazine. He is the author of the highly acclaimed and best-selling books “Trend Tracking” and “Trends 2000” (Warner Books).
With a 40-year track record of identifying, tracking, and forecasting trends, Celente is world-renowned as today’s #1 Trend Forecaster. Celente has earned the reputation as a trusted name in trends for his many accurate forecasts; among them, the 1987 Stock Market crash, Dot com bust, “Gold Bull Run,” the “Panic of ‘08,” the rise of organic foods, and the popularity of gourmet coffee long before Starbucks was a household name.
Celente, who developed the Globalnomic methodology to identify, track, forecast, and manage trends, is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma,
Tom welcomes a new guest Jon Little publisher of 'The Pickaxe' to the show.
Jon discusses the historical usage of precious metals and why metal was first used to pay soldiers. Empires tend to be based on warfare and a continuation of conquering others. Barter was considered cumbersome and paying soldiers in metals while demanding payment in taxes created a market for precious metals.
You can see the debasement of coinage during the Roman Empire and the inevitable inflationary outcome. War grabs resources and as governments spend more on wars they tend to have a gradual lack of return on investment.
We are witnessing the unintended consequence of sanctions on a commodity superstore nation. Jon argues that a gold standard can help a country thrive within its means.
We see problems with the tock indexes and CPI metrics which ignore food and energy. We have enormous debt and an unproductive labor force while Russia has very little debt. Outsourcing has created a service economy in the West. We see the modern obsession with entertainment but countries can't stream their way out of problems.
Moving back to a gold standard by a major nation would make their currency far more attractive. China, Russia, and India all promote the buying of gold by their citizenry. Those that have been hurt by hard times understand the value of sound money.
It's important to note which nations have chosen to not sanction Russia because that silence is deafening. Modern monetary theory and Keynesian economics are failing rapidly.
Jon explains the historic results of currency manipulation. Often government promises aren't worth the paper they are printed on. People will tolerate it a lot but eventually, confidence collapses. Today, it's highly questionable why anyone would buy treasuries for a guaranteed loss.
He discusses some of the risks around digital currencies both from hackers, volatility, and a potential lack of anonymity.
Lastly, Jon notes that throughout history there have been periods where people have been ordered to turn in their precious metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - PM Warfare Theory8:43 - Monetary Cycles16:20 - Waning Power18:40 - Gold Standards?23:29 - Sanctioning Issues28:21 - History of Manipulation31:45 - Negative Rates36:59 - Cryptos?39:57 - Sanctioning Gold?44:22 - Winning Silver Argument47:34 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The historic reasons for using precious metals for paying soldiers.The unintended consequences of sanctions and decline of the western nations.Benefits of returning to a gold standard.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/ThePickaxe_AgWebsite: https://www.thepickaxe.xyz/
Articles:https://www.thepickaxe.xyz/single-post/precious-metal-warfare-theoryhttps://www.thepickaxe.xyz/single-post/exorbitant-privilege-precious-metals-warfare-theoryhttps://www.thepickaxe.xyz/single-post/bankers-win-paperswaps-manipulation-inflation-workers-lose
Jon Forrest Little studied at the University of New Mexico with an emphasis on history, Latin American foreign policy, and archaeology. He studied processual archaeology under distinguished anthropologist Lewis Binford. Jon also attended Georgetown University's Institute for Comparative Political and Economic Systems.
Little began his professional career working for 21 years in the clay mining industry. He worked with companies drawing from shale mines surrounding Mount Cristo Rey in El Paso. These clay deposits were unique because two manufacturing plants from two separate countries (north and south of the US-Mexican border,) shared the clay resources. The same clay deposits were used by Mexican and US brick manufacturers. This experience sharpened Jon's knowledge of international business and labor relations. Jon also worked with dozens of clay mines near Pueblo and El Dorado Colorado.
While working in the clay-fired brick industry Jon worked with Robert AM Stern architects to set a CU Boulder...
Tom welcomes back Jeffrey Christian Managing Partner of the CPM Group to discuss their latest report on gold and why the world is shifting towards higher gold prices.
Jeffrey discusses gold's recent performance and why he expects inflation will keep the price up. He expects the geopolitical situation with Ukraine to largely be resolved by the second half of this year. He remains bullish on gold because the world is facing numerous issues.
Jeff discusses some of what he calls strange beliefs around gold. Many believe the price should be much higher despite having few good solid reasons for that belief. When various commodities are compared against the gold you see that gold is operating in the expected price range.
The gold market is fairly complex with Central banks being a large factor along with banks and big firms having a short-term effect on prices. Central banks tend to have no time horizon on their holdings. While retail investors often have a larger effect on price due to volume and the sheer number of participants.
Their yearbook compares and contrasts the price of gold with Fed rates and commodities and inflation rates. He expects interest rates to rise to the three percent level and that inflation will contract. He doesn't expect rate hikes to hurt the economy.
Food prices are going to be elevated for at least a year. This is due to the conflict in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia impacting grain and fertilizer supply.
Jeff expects another recession between 2024 and 2026.
They are bullish on platinum in the long term while bearish on palladium. There seems to be a shift back to platinum in the automobile market.
Jeff discusses the Rubles drop and recovery and how they set a floor on gold for internal purchases within Russia. Much of the Ruble's move is due to Gasprom bank purchasing rubles with Euros in the market.
Jeffrey discusses the United States auditing process for their gold holdings work. Much of that gold has been sealed in vaults and drums. The audits regularly verify these seals. Jeff argues against the idea that America's gold has been secretly leased or rehypothecated.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Gold Yearbook Review4:49 - Expectation Management11:29 - Investment Drivers15:32 - Fed Funds & Gold Price19:23 - Fed Rate Hikes20:55 - China & Global Economics24:21 - CPI & Rate of Change33:35 - Ukraine & Food Inflation36:50 - Energy Market Imports37:43 - Yield Curve & Recession42:18 - Platinum Metals45:28 - Russia's Misconceptions50:38 - Reserve Currencies?54:14 - Reported Gold Holdings1:00:13 - U.S. Gold Audits?1:07:35 - Rehypothecation?1:10:13 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's recent performance and the drivers for gold from here.Inflation outlook and his thoughts on the Ukraine conflict becoming resolved.The Ruble's recovery was mostly due to Gasprom's purchasing of Rubles for Euros on the market.How audits of the United States gold holdings function.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory s...
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show James Kunstler. James is a Podcaster, Painter, Author, and writer of the Blog "The Clusterfuck Nation." His book "Living in the Long Emergency" discusses the increasing complexity and fragility of our tech-based society. We seem to be closer to the end than the beginning of this stage of society. The customs and convenience we are accustomed to may go away for a time. We are reaching a point of diminishing returns as systems we depend on fail.
The great recession of 2008-2009 and the bailouts were significant but paltry in comparison to the debt added in recent years.
The West appears to have vastly underestimated the effects of sanctions. This is because Russia's economy is largely based on real goods and commodities that the West wants. The United States' chief export is the dollar and inflation. Therefore Russia is in a much better bargaining position. The U.S. has managed to blow up global trade arrangements that were deeply complex.
The worlds manufacturing processes require fossil fuels and green energy is far from sufficient. Our leaders are operating with a lot of wishful thinking that is failing. We're not going to run suburbia and the interstate highway system on green energy.
It's difficult to reach an overall consensus on what is happening and as a result, a plan to fix it is difficult to construct. We should focus on solving issues at a local level. Family-owned businesses are needed that will employ their neighbors. Driving hundreds of miles for goods is not going to be practical.
Gold has been money for thousands of years and will remain so. When fiat currencies fail metals reassert their importance. We're seeing the importance of gold in Russia right now. You can either pay them in Rubles or gold and they will sell you Rubles if you have gold. The European countries aren't going to have much choice in the matter.
The WEF has created a coordinated system in many Western nations. We see that in the lockstep response to the pandemic. We're experiencing some sort of 'mass formation psychosis' that goes contrary to rationality and reason.
China has somewhat stayed on the sidelines through the latest crisis. James believes that the Chinese government and economy may not be that stable.
A coming lack of capital investment due to our failing financial system won't help fix the energy deficits. A lot of people who are now rich will discover they aren't that wealthy.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:58 - The Long Emergency6:33 - 2008 and Today10:16 - Debt, Russia, & Putin14:26 - Peak Stupidity?18:10 - Green Energy Issues23:50 - Grid Issues & Solutions26:00 - Weather and Farming29:26 - Now What?31:39 - Finding Local Solutions34:22 - Gold, Rubles, and Risk38:00 - Biden, WEF, & Schwab39:38 - Coordinated Crazy?43:07 - U.S. Weakness & China48:34 - Capital & Energy Solutions52:36 - Panic out of dollars?54:47 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why our society is becoming increasingly fragile in the age of technology.Massive debts and the actual impact of the sanctions on Russia.Coming energy deficits and the need to return to a more localized economy.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/JhkunstlerWebsite: https://kunstler.com
James Howard Kunstler says he wrote The Geography of Nowhere, “Because I believe a lot of people share my feelings about the tragic landscape of highway strips, parking lots, housing tracts, mega-malls, junked cities, and ravaged countryside that makes up the everyday environment where most Americans live and work.”
Home From Nowhere was a continuation of that discussion with an emphasis on the remedies. A portion of it appeared as the cover story in the September 1996 Atlantic Monthly.
His next book in the series, The City in Mind: Notes on the Urban Condition, published by Simon & Schuster / Free Press, is a look a wide-ranging look at cities here and abroad,
Tom welcomes back Nick Barisheff, President and CEO of BMG, to the show. He points out that poking Russia was a bad idea and now we have to live with the results of the sanctions. Russia now wants Rubles or gold in exchange for all their commodity exports. This was an obvious retaliation.
Germany will be in big trouble should Russia cut them off from energy. Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe and not much farming will occur in a warzone. Fertilizer will also be difficult to obtain and this fall we can expect food shortages in many countries.
Gold does best in stagflationary periods and we're starting to see it now. Stocks, bonds, and real estate are all in historic bubbles and grossly overvalued. We're well past due for a major correction and such a correction will only aggravate the problems. The Fed is cornered and has no viable way out.
Gold and silver are highly manipulated so that throws off-price discovery. Central banks lease their gold and may have leased much of it to China and Russia while still counting it on their books. Russia and China have some official gold but many estimate they have much more in their sovereign wealth funds. Those funds don't report their holdings.
Both Russia and China want to move away from the U.S. dollar. The petro trade is responsible for upholding the dollar for the past forty years is now collapsing.
Russia's change in policy is beginning to put a floor under the price of gold. We're seeing the Ruble rapidly recover now that it has at least temporarily been tied to gold. Russian citizens no longer have to pay taxes on gold.
Trudeau and Biden both have terrible policies, especially around energy. Even now Biden doesn't recognize that his policies on energy were a mistake.
Nick explains the policy of the WEF and what could destabilize their agenda.
The current supply chain problems are exacerbating problems with the economy while heightening inflation. We're seeing a lot of ripple effects. Depending on the country we will see food supply problems and issues with fertilizer. We're beginning to see rationing for energy and food in Europe and some goods may simply be unavailable.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Center of the Storm3:40 - Factors boosting Gold5:23 - Gold and Inflation9:05 - Gold Backing Scenarios11:22 - Rubles and Gold12:48 - Gold Price Projections14:15 - Dollar Devaluation Risk15:47 - Market Cliffs19:59 - Canada Bank Risks22:09 - Energy Policies23:16 - "Reset, The Great Reset"26:45 - Supply Chain Crunch28:53 - Fertilizer & Farming30:48 - Diversifying Portfolios32:07 - Gold Bar Database35:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Russia and the backfiring sanctions resulting in the gold-backed Ruble?Energy, fertilizer, and food are why supply chain problems may persist.The lack of proper gold price discovery and how much gold is in the east.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/bmggroupincWebsite: https://bmg-group.com/Website: https://bmgfunds.com/Website: https://bmgdiyinvestor.com/Book: https://www.amazon.com/10-000-Gold-Inevitable-Investors-ebook/dp/B07KGLQK54/
For the past 20 years, Nick Barisheff has focused on the world of precious metals and the benefits available to investors who hold physical gold, silver, and platinum bullion. As president and CEO of BMG, he uses his understanding of the precious metals markets to develop strategies, products, and services for clients looking to integrate bullion into their portfolios. His view on the precious metals sector is that gold, silver, and platinum, in bullion form, are a vital component of a client's financial program and should make up at least 10 percent or more of a well-diversified portfolio.
In 2002, Nick launched BMG and BMG BullionFund, Canada's only RRSP eligible open-end mutual fund trust that purchases equal dollar amounts of gold, silver, and platinum bullion. Subsequently, BMG Gold BullionFund and the BMG BullionBars program were launched ...
Tom welcomes Jaime Carrasco of Canaccord Genuity back to the show.
Jaime discusses the price valuations for miners with gold in the ground and why some remain very undervalued. These are amazing opportunities to buy into something the world will need soon. You need hedges to protect you from what is coming. It's important to have your own gold and these events only happen every hundred years or so. Many challenges are coming.
SWIFT only works with Euros and Dollars and Russia no longer wants those currencies. Today, however, Russia is the largest producer while China and India are the largest buyers. The world is deciding what currency to use in their new system. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Venezuela, and Mexico are siding with Russia.
Every time currency systems shift the biggest losers are the countries with the most debt. This is the elephant in the room.
Since the Ruble is rising in value and is being backed by gold a relationship and floor are being put in for gold. Now consider Canada's non-existant gold reserves.
Russia is a net buyer of gold so sanctions on metals has a minimal effect. Nickel is an example of the risks of owning paper contracts in a crisis. We're losing control of the commodity markets and the exchange pricing is shifting to the Eastern markets.
Economic unravellings take about two years to play out. Two years to collapse and then the rebuilding starts. We need a complete cleansing of the system.
Great leaders only come out of hard times and we're going to need to go through that period first.
Housing markets usually crash because banks stop lending. Rates would have to rise quite a bit for inflation to be prevented. They can't raise rates much without killing the stock markets.
Gold is going to have to move much much higher to rebalance the system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:47 - Golden Consequences4:46 - Positioning and Pullbacks7:18 - HUI VS. Gold9:18 - SWIFT and Russia14:23 - Gold-Backed Ruble?16:14 - Metals & Sanctions18:36 - Chilean Story20:20 - Unintended Consequences23:04 - Inflation & Impacts26:10 - Rate Hike Effects32:52 - Debt and Currencies35:52 - Liquidating Treasuries37:23 - Great Leaders?39:16 - Blockchain & Crypto43:36 - Exiting the System45:27 - Rates & Real Estate48:45 - Gold Projections50:32 - Two Portfolios54:44 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Russia's petroruble alternative to the SWIFT systemThe continued consequences of excessive money printing and debt.Why blockchain may be the decentralized solution for gold.Why gold is heading much higher due to massive fiat money creation.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrascoLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: Canaccord Genuity: https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/
Jaime Carrasco is portfolio manager at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in Toronto. From 2014 to 2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies.
"Like one's financial wealth,
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks.
He believes that Bitcoin will survive and thrive but it's likely to correct further. There is still much irrational exuberance in the crypto space. He argues that the current pattern is more likely to break down.
He discusses how resistance level works and how charting measures these areas. The Fed is giving out its playbook and interest rate rises should cause the markets to tighten. Now is a time to be cautious. He expects only a few more rate hikes because the economy will be affected. Historically rate hikes slow the economy and this coupled with high inflation will be difficult.
We also see economic problems when the yield curve inverts. However, the Fed is running out of tools to bail out the economy. Inflation will probably stay at 8-10% for some time.
Oil is likely at a longer-term high and we may see lower prices from here. He expects a push for alternative energy sources and countries are going to want to become energy independent.
We're seeing a classic breakout mentality surrounding gold. We retested the 2020 high and this pullback is likely going to be healthy. No chart goes straight up and it's healthy to have a retracement. We're seeing a pattern that mimics the 1970s for gold but it's questionable to set a specific target.
He likes silver but is slightly cautious due to its industrial demand and the economy being weak.
He discusses the crazy move and market reactions in the nickel market. We probably had an enormous short squeeze that blew up some funds.
Fertilizer markets have gone gangbusters in a matter of weeks. Don't chase the hype since that is usually the time to sell. There should be other opportunities to trade the market after apullback.
Generally, the dollar rising is bad for gold and currently, it appears overbought. It functions as a safety hedge for much of the world.
Lastly, he cautions that the equity markets will probably have another day of reckoning at some point.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - Bitcoin and Crash6:34 - Resistance Levels8:05 - Nasdaq & Fundamentals11:50 - Fed & Rate Hikes13:17 - Yields Inverting14:46 - Oil Chart16:40 - Gold Volatility21:51 - Silver23:15 - Essential Metals25:32 - Fertilizers27:26 - US Dollar Thoughts29:33 - Russian Stocks31:53 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSolowayWebsite: https://inthemoneystocks.com/Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.comBlog: https://inthemoneystocks.com/author/gareth/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. "Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets," he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
InTheMoneyStocks was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected.
Tom welcomes Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates to discuss the many things that have changed in just the past few months.
The actions of Russia will likely begin driving the price of gold. We've reached a tipping point not unlike when Charles de Gaulle began demanding gold in the 70s. Putin is hitting back economically. The seizure (theft) of reserves was a clear warning to many countries. The Ukraine/Russia conflict is equally an economic one.
Lawrence discusses the low valuations in commodities and the lack of capital investment in resources. Inflation appears to now be the norm.
The dollar could go higher because it's still the best of the worst. The trend in purchasing power will continue to decline. He says, "Their drunk and they can't stop drinking."
Europe needs Russia's oil and Putin is forcing a seat at the table. The West has ignored and treated Russia like a second-class citizen for too long. The arrogance of those in power is stunning, and Putin is not stupid. They are not used to someone standing up to them and winning. We are on the verge of another move higher in gold.
Margins and multiples in equities are going to come down and holding general stocks now makes no sense. "A huge trend change is coming… and you want to be on the right side of this. If you're not investing in the right areas it's going to be a very painful experience."
Front running may be part of the equation for inflation. Wages aren't likely to keep up, and it's difficult to assess all the various parts of the inflation picture. It takes time to solve supply chain issues and find good workarounds. He states, "A capital system based on the correct allocation of capital will make more stuff for less. We need productivity."
A crackup boom is a possibility and so is hyperinflation. A crackup boom occurs when the majority realize that government will never stop printing. People change their spending habits and will buy stuff they don't need to sell it later. Another sign is a stock market that continues shooting up relentlessly.
Lawrence expects the problems we see with nickel markets to also occur with other commodities. The LME changed the rules, breaking prior trades, and screwed a bunch of traders.
Lastly, he discusses how miners remain an excellent buying opportunity. They will provide multiples in leverage over the performance of the metal.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction1:01 - Russia's Moves6:12 - Dedollarizing9:52 - Dollar Appreciation?12:04 - Undermining Davos18:05 - Capital Rotation21:48 - Supply Chains & PPI24:50 - Should'ves & Could'ves28:57 - Crack-Up Boom32:33 - Feds Final Pivot37:57 - Stocks Over Bonds40:49 - Nickel Markets & LME45:25 - Bitcoin & Metals49:38 - Biden Tax Hikes?53:20 - Miner Performance55:15 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Russia and how they are pushing back in the economic war.The continued risk of high inflation, a crackup boom, and further supply chain problems.Expect the types of problems in nickel to appear in other commodities.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Tom welcomes back Michael Piepenburg Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management to the show.
Sadly the decline of empires is often associated with war and debts. We're seeing a lot of polarized thinking in the West and not much in the way of understanding. The war has shown how unprepared and weak much of the west has become. We are pointing a gun at Putin and shooting ourselves in the foot with these sanctions. The financial weapons that are being deployed against Russia are backfiring in a very serious way.
We are forcing Russia to move closer to China and the West has shown it's willingness to freeze and steal reserves. This has not gone unnoticed by a number of countries. We're seeing a lot of spin and virtue signalling from Western governments.
The West can't use the same approach on larger countries that we've used on small ones in the past. We're moving towards a multi-currency system due to the decline of the U.S. dollar. Russia's FX reserves are the highest they have ever been. Saudi Arabia is now conversing with China to sell oil in Yuan and other nations are doing likewise. This means the end of the petrodollar which has massive implications.
U.S. Treasuries are now some of the most unloved IOU's in the world. We're seeing the consequences in the yield curve. If no one buys your debt than you have to buy it yourself. The market fears rising rates and their are no good solutions for the Fed. Inflation is therefore inevitable and intentional.
Matthew discusses how gold is 'the' monetary metal and he no longer has faith in any currencies. Count your wealth in ounces and grams not dollars. Gold is the insurance policy with the largest history.
Price discovery for gold is improving as more countries actively begin to use it. Gold always gets the last laugh.
Many Gold ETFs claim to provide ownership but is not true in fact. They may not have the gold and it's probably stored at a commercial bank with derivative risks.
Lastly, try to stay positive and look for informed opinions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - War & Cornered Empires3:45 - Two Perspectives13:13 - Sanctions & Financial Weapons19:06 - FX Reserves Seizure26:56 - Dollar Exportation32:10 - Unintended Consequences36:36 - Mutual MAD Finance40:00 - Gold Vs. Currencies44:12 - A Perfect Storm49:40 - Gold ETFs & Central Banks54:36 - ITEOTWAWKI AIFF57:09 - Informed Opinions59:25 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why empires end in debt and wars.The problems with economic sanctions.Gold's role in wealth protection and why their is no perfect solutions.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerlandWebsite: https://goldswitzerland.com/Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show Shaun Usmar. Shaun is CEO of Triple Flag Precious Metals a Royalty and Streaming Company. He began in the business as a metallurgist in steel and aluminum. After that, he ended up in a senior executive role at various companies. This gave him a broad perspective on the metal industry.
For many reasons conventional financing in the industry is difficult and this created an opportunity for alternative business models. Their Streaming and Royalty offerings function to help fill that gap.
Conventional financing has yet to return to the precious metals industry. It's increasingly important for companies to secure supply chains.
Inflation and geopolitics are boosting gold. The sector is still underperforming but eventually, it will attract the generalist investor. We're still early on in this bull market and inflation seems unlikely to normalize.
Shaun discusses the various factors including wages, commodity prices, energy, and supply issues that could affect mining operators. Liquidity is important in this environment and higher-cost operations could experience problems. Pent-up demand due to the pandemic could put further pressure on goods and services. He hoped to see more consolidation in the mining market.
When creating a Royalty program it's important to work within the needs of the resource company and develop a good solution. ESG is also important today and it's important to work with like minded companies that give back to the regions where they operate.
The industry needs new talent and disciplined young people to enter the mining sector. Technology and innovation are also lacking and hopefully, we see development. Hopefully, we could see an Elon Musk equivalent become excited about mining and perhaps revolutionize the industry. The world needs resources.
Lastly, he discusses some of his experiences and lessons from being in the industry.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Why Focus on Gold?4:04 - Conventional Finance?6:36 - Gold and Uncertainty11:09 - Wage Price Spiral12:30 - Commodities & Inflation19:22 - Sanctions & Gold20:06 - Consolidation and M&A23:04 - Structuring Royalties27:57 - Younger Generations32:07 - Royalties & Risks35:07 - Optionality36:37 - Experience & Lessons42:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
How Royalty and Streaming provide an alternative to traditional financing.Effects and impact of inflation and possibility of a continued wage-price spiral.The mining industry needs younger technologically minded talent.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.tripleflagpm.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shaun-usmar/
Shaun Usmar is an international mining executive with over 25 years of experience working around the globe in operational, financial, and executive leadership roles in some of the world’s largest and fastest-growing mining companies.
Prior to founding Triple Flag, Mr. Usmar served as Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Barrick Gold Corporation, from 2014 to 2016, where he helped restructure the company. He joined Xstrata in 2002 as an early senior executive member of the management team that grew the company into one of the world’s largest diversified miners at the time of its acquisition by Glencore in 2013. His roles at Xstrata included General Manager of Business Development in London, Chief Financial Officer of Xstrata’s global Ferro-Alloys business in South Africa, and Chief Financial Officer of Xstrata’s global Nickel business in Canada.
Before joining Xstrata, Mr. Usmar worked at BHP Billiton in Corporate Finance in London and started his career in mining operations in the steel and aluminum industries as a production engineer. Mr. Usmar is the Vice-Chair of Make-A-Wish Canada.
Shaun holds a Bachelor of Science in Engineering in Metallurgy and Materials from the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa, and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at ...
Tom welcomes back Jim Forsythe to the show. Jim explains the purpose of "Citizens for Sound Money". Jim discusses some of the history and the gradual disconnect from sound money during the last century. A gold-backed currency places massive constraints on government spending and forces them to spend within their means. The lack of sound money is a primary cause of much of the world's problems.
As we print dollars many of them move overseas and by that mechanism, we export our inflation to other countries. That is slowly changing as other countries utilize their currencies to buy commodities between countries. There has been a steady policy of de-dollarization by other nations for some time.
Jim discusses the problems with the approach taken towards Russia and why the military-industrial complex has unfortunately continued to treat them as an enemy. This is not a black-and-white conflict. Western politicians are heavily invested in Ukrainian politics. We see this spilling over into virtue-signaling which is creating further division.
State-level governments are generally more representative of their population's interests. New Hampshire is a good example of this because of the number of representatives. This makes it harder for outsiders to lobby that many politicians and those elected are more known at a local level.
He explains the importance of asset-backed digital currencies. These are backed by physical metals and it's important these have redemption policies and audits. Many of the founders of the United States wanted what amounts to a decentralized system of finance. It encouraged competition and helped keep things honest. Today leverage ratios are completely blown out and we have a lot of dishonesty in the system.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Citizens for Sound Money1:50 - 1913, 1971 & Fiat Systems5:42 - Gold Backed Money & Morality10:24 - Russia Sanctions & Inflation18:10 - Constitutional Money23:09 - State-Level Politics28:20 - Asset-Backed D.C.34:47 - Terms & Conditions44:10 - Concluding Thoughts45:55 - Premiums47:26 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The importance of having sound money.Inflation, money printing, and more supply problems from sanctions.Why state-level government is generally more representative.Importance of asset-backed digital currencies.
Guest Links:Website: https://citizens4soundmoney.orgTwitter: https://twitter.com/JimForsythe5Twitter: https://twitter.com/4SoundMoneyReddit User: https://www.reddit.com/user/Forsytjr2Reddit Group: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/
Jim Forsythe is a Cornell graduate who studied Russian and Engineering (B.S., M.Eng) and visited the Soviet Union in '84 and '86. His visits to the Communist country cemented his strong belief in free markets. Jim flew KC-135s in the Air Force and taught at the Air Force Academy after receiving his Ph.D. in Aerospace Engineering. He was a small business owner in New Hampshire after leaving the Air Force.
After campaigning for Ron Paul for the 2008 election, he was elected to N.H. Senate, and as a prime sponsor, passed Education Tax Credits and Medical Marijuana. In the 2012 election, he served as N.H. Campaign Chair for Dr. Paul. He has been a precious metal and mining investor since 2007 and is a member of the Reddit Wallstreet silver sub and an active participant in #silversqueeze and #SilverIsMoney on Twitter.
Tom welcomes new guest Michael Snyder from The Economic Collapse Blog. Michael discusses how people assume war with Russia can't happen because of Mutual Assured Destruction. We do need to think about the risks of conflict escalating and Russia has modernized its strategic arsenal while the United States largely has not. The Russians have also developed anti-ballistic missile systems which are quite advanced. As a result, we are quite unprepared for such a conflict. Meanwhile the U.S. military is mostly focused on implementing woke policies.
When the cold war ended we declared ourselves the victors and focused on other parts of our military. 9/11 brought spending on anti-terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq which became large money pits. The military today is increasingly underperforming which we witnessed when the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan.
U.S. foreign policy has been isolating various countries like Russia, China, and India. This is resulting in these countries coming closer together. Most do not want this war and if we're not careful it could escalate.
Countries are likely to take advantage of the United States because Biden is perceived as weak. This is a window of opportunity for other nations.
A diplomatic solution that would have kept Russia out of Ukraine was entirely possible but the Biden administration took a hard-line approach.
The current method of calculating inflation has been changed multiple times to make it look lower. The actual numbers (ShadowStats.com) are over fifteen percent if it was calculated like it was in the 80s.
We've been spending trillions that we don't have and thus diluting the money supply at an ever-increasing pace. Now with the problems in Europe, we're going to have further supply problems and therefore inflation is going to worsen to the next level. We're seeing the energy problems coming out of Europe in part due to their reliance on unreliable green energy solutions.
Food supplies are going to get increasingly tight since much of the wheat for Europe comes from Ukraine and Russia. Many farmers are going to be unable to purchase fertilizer due to the costs.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction1:05 - War, M.A.D. and Risk8:03 - U.S. Military Spending11:44 - Russia and China17:33 - Signs and Concerns24:09 - Catastrophic Inflation32:34 - Food and Fertilizer36:54 - Civil Unrest Coming?39:40 - Meat & Bird Flu42:37 - Unimaginable Debt45:17 - Dollar Disaster46:39 - Supply Chain Outlook50:20 - Prepping for Problems53:16 - Gold and Silver54:52 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Risks of a greater conflict with Russia and the west's lack of preparedness.The major problems with U.S. foreign policies.Looming problems with food supplies and fertilizer affordability.Importance of having some preparations.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/Revelation1217Website: https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
Michael Snyder has an undergraduate degree in Commerce from the University of Virginia, a law degree from the University of Florida law school, and an LLM from the University of Florida law school. He worked as an attorney in Washington D.C. for several years, but became increasingly frustrated that I was having no impact on the world around me. Fortunately, God took him and his wife out of there and brought them to a very quiet location in the middle of nowhere. From the middle of nowhere, they have touched millions of lives all over the planet through the Internet.
Tom welcomes a new guest Mikkel Thorup to the show. Mikkel has visited over 107 countries over the past twenty-two years and lived in nine of them. His business is helping people move offshore. He prefers to speak from experience and provide solutions that actually work.
There are many reasons for choosing to move offshore including tax reasons. Diversifying geographically can bring enormous benefits towards protecting your freedoms.
He discusses some of the countries where he has had less than pleasant experiences due to excessive restrictions. He has been to North Korea, El Salvador, and Iran and he likes going to places that are radically different. The United States is one of the worst countries to enter or exit and he discusses some of his experiences.
Brasil has fewer restrictions than other countries. Uruguay is fairly open along with Costa Rica. However, rules are changing often so double and triple check. Long-term plans are somewhat of a waste of time due to all the changes. Most countries have reduced most of their restrictions.
The trucker convoy in Canada is an excellent example of potential banking risks. We’re also seeing entire countries at risk of being canceled. Having an offshore bank account could be highly advantageous in many scenarios. Mikkel cautions, what works today may not work tomorrow.
He uses cryptocurrencies regularly for business as it’s fast, secure, and easy. In many instances, it removes the third party but it does give him a lot of flexibility and opportunity.
Mikkel discusses some of the preferred jurisdictions that have low or no taxes. Many countries don’t care so long as your money is made outside of the country. You may still have tax obligations to your home country. He explains how the process works for U.S. Citizens.
He explains the benefits and differences between residency and citizenship.
He discusses traveling with family and children and the advantages of alternative schooling programs.
Medical tourism is an option people may want to consider because many countries have very advanced medical facilities. Many countries do not have waiting lists and they can get you in immediately. There are numerous alternatives and you don’t only have to look in your backyard. Also many procedures that aren’t approved in the West are available readily in other countries.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction1:00 – Moving Offshore5:16 – Restrictive Countries8:47 – Pandemic Restrictions9:50 – Free Countries12:59 – Financial Considerations18:18 – Offshore Banking21:22 – Cryptocurrencies23:20 – Jurisdictions & Taxes28:57 – Citizenship & Residency33:52 – Obtaining Citizenship36:59 – Multiple Residencies?38:18 – Children & Travelling43:46 – Medical Tourism48:19 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Benefits of moving outside of your home country.Importance and advantages of residency and offshore banking.How to travel with children and home schooling.Medical tourism considerations and being able to find better health care options.
Guest Links:
Website: https://expatmoney.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ThorupMikkelYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/ExpatMoneyShow/videosSchool: https://expatschool.io
Mikkel Thorup is the world’s most sought-after ex-pat consultant. He focuses on helping high-net-worth private clients to legally mitigate tax liabilities, obtain a second residency and citizenship, and assemble a portfolio of foreign investments including international real estate, timber plantations, agricultural land, and other hard-money tangible assets.
Mikkel is the Founder and Director at Expat Money™, a private consulting firm started in 2017. He hosts the popular weekly podcast, the Expat Money Show, and wrote the definitive #1-Best Selling book Expat Secrets - How To Pay Zero Taxes, Live Overseas And Make Giant Piles Of Money.
A world traveler since his teens, Mikkel Thorup has learned his craft in three unique and unconventio...
Tom welcomes Petroleum Engineer and Analyst Michael Lynch. Michael witnessed the 90% Indonesian currency collapse and that piqued his interest in the history of money.
He discusses the aberrations in deliveries data released by the Comex. The Comex can never default because they have plenty of legal methods of settling outside of the physical product. The rules are that they can change the rules as they see fit. A lot is going on behind the scenes and you can’t determine what just by looking at the price.
Michael explains how the monthly delivery cycles function.
He discusses an incident that occurred in July 2020 where the Comex instantly moved a large amount of metal from eligible to registered. This ended up being a big turning point for the market. Before this date they were suppressing the silver price but immediately after the price moved 60% higher.
He shows a probable relationship between the inflows into the PSLV and a decline in Comex Registered silver during the Silver Squeeze.
Michael discusses an anomaly that occurred in December of 2021 where there appeared to be off-books settling of paper silver. Bank Of America is seemingly a recent player in the silver contract market. There seems to be less metal available in these markets and a significant amount of ‘adjusting’ of these numbers.
JP Morgan appears to be the entity currently ‘managing’ these markets. It seems the days of having silver readily available in vaults are over. The maximum metal that JP Morgan could have in their vaults is 40 million ounces.
He plans on creating a SubStack so he can dive deeper into his economic-related analysis and models.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
3:00 – Market Overview
4:30 – Comex Definitions
10:10 – July 2020 – Anomaly
13:55 – Monkey Plot – PSLV
17:55 – Dec 2021 – Anomaly
23:06 – March 2022 – Anomaly
34:00 – Wait There’s More
42:48 – JP Morgan Metal?
49:56 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- How the Comex operates and why they can’t technically default.
- Examining anomalies in the data with the Comex.
- Relationship between inflows into PSLV and Comex registered metals.
- JP Morgan’s role in ‘managing’ silver.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.reddit.com/user/Ditch_the_DeepState
Website: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/
Michael Lynch has a background as a Petroleum Engineer and developed a keen interest in the history of money as a result of witnessing the collapse of the Indonesian currency. This interest has brought him to study the behavior of the Comex, JP Morgan, and SLV paper contracts.
Tom welcomes back Don Durrett of GoldStockData. Don discusses how sentiment remains terrible in miners and the HUI continues to underperform. Investors seem to be waiting to confirm gold’s breakout. Silver needs to reach $28.50 to confirm a new move. When we reach that level silver could run into the thirties quickly and once gold is solidly above $2000 we will likely be off to the races for the miners.
By June we’re going to have a good idea of where the economy is heading. If it doesn’t pick up and if inflation continues this will be very good for gold.
Fear and uncertainty are the number one driver of gold and we see this increasing. We saw this during 9/11 and again with the great recession of 2008. Everything has changed with MMT and now no one blinks at a trillion-dollar deficit. Wall Street still believes in the bull market and the ability of the Fed to act. They have yet to realize that everything is changing. The long-term fear trade will be back soon.
When you print money people closest to the money get the direct benefit since it slowly filters down to the public. Inflation finally began heading up last summer and supply problems are exacerbating the effect. The only good news is that money velocity is slow due to banks hoarding and not lending. Don believes inflation will be range-bound somewhere from 8 to 12 percent.
Inflation is different for everyone as it depends on lifestyle. Food inflation is moving higher along with energy which will hurt those that commute and live paycheck to paycheck. Inflation is a cause of recessions because of the lack of discretionary spending.
The Fed is copying Japan’s 1990 period model and we’re not letting the excesses in the system be cleaned out. As a result, we have a lot of zombie corporations. The Fed is caught between a debt bubble that could pop and a desire to control inflation. They can’t do both. They aren’t raising rates because a recession could blow up the financial system. As a political gesture, they will briefly raise rates and then likely lower them back to near zero. MMT requires regular injections of liquidity. All choices now are bad. All of these problems were manifesting well before the crisis in Ukraine.
China, Russia, India are going to create some sort of commodity-based currency. Last week Biden said that the United States wants to help cryptocurrencies by encouraging investment and supporting their development.
Don discusses the mining equities and why he prefers producers. The silver market is quite small so he has to limit his exposure to that sector. None of the miners are ‘safe’ so it’s important to keep allocations per miner small.
Ukraine is going to be the catalyst and we could see a transition to a commodity-backed currency. We could see huge cash flow multiples come to major commodity equities. Valuations could head off the charts.
Treasuries being liquidated by China could be the black swan as everyone else including Japan starts heading for the exits.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:39 – Miner Performance
4:43 – Breakout Levels
9:47 – Fear Trade & Physical
18:05 – Inflation & Commodities
23:40 – Inflation or Recession?
31:53 – Technology & Markets
37:38 – New Monetary System?
41:09 – Bitcoin
48:45 – Miners & Producers
58:40 – Royalty Model Risks
1:02:38 – Ukraine Thoughts
1:06:20 – West Vs. East
1:12:50 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Investors are looking for gold and silver to confirm their moves.
- Fear and uncertainty are among the biggest drivers for gold.
- Inflation will continue and how the Fed is cornered.
- What happens should China, Russia, and India create some sort of commodity-backed currency.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrett
Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com/
Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241
Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Tom welcomes back experienced silver investor David Morgan to the show. David discusses the current conflict and why it’s likely a Bankers War. It seems like a battle over who will control the next financial system. There are massive amounts of misinformation and it’s difficult to determine what is happening. The good news is this could be a precursor to things eventually improving.
David feels that Putin may be controlled opposition but it’s interesting how the pandemic has now largely disappeared.
He believes Bitcoin has been hijacked by various banking interests. The banking elite want a central bank digital currency system that they control.
There are a lot of unintended consequences with sanctioning Russia. Russia is in good shape from a commodity viewpoint and they have considerable gold reserves.
The best-decentralized finance you can have is physical metal. Those in power don’t want to give up control. At some point, a lot of cryptocurrencies will probably be banned.
When we go to a fully digital system they will be able to track trace and tax everything you do. Then they will attach a social credit system to it and likely try to change spending patterns however they see fit.
Gold will likely return in some form to the monetary system. This will probably have a digital form that is backed by metals which will make transactions simpler. The ledger system of the blockchain is optimal for keeping a system like this transparent.
Russian energy equities are being given away right now but of course, these carry significant risks. Consider betting a little to potentially win a lot.
He discusses how we could see something similar to the nickel market crisis with silver. Should it be revealed that much of the silver supply is entirely paper promises that could justify such a crisis? We don’t know where the market should be in an era of manipulation but the demand for metals is currently quite high.
Oil is the most important commodity on the planet, food is probably second, followed by silver. You can store silver easily but it’s considerably harder to store oil.
The silver to gold ratio could probably reach 15 to 1 in a breakdown scenario. Silver is constrained compared with gold because banks do not consider it to be money.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – Banker’s Wars
4:05 – Dis-Mis-Information
7:40 – Monetary System Control
12:14 – Crypto Risks & Metals
14:09 – Cash Concerns & Cyberattacks
18:05 – Sanctions & Inflation
19:30 – Russia Oil & Gold
22:20 – CBDC’s & First Mover
24:10 – Russian Energy Equities
26:30 – Comparing Nickel & Silver
27:50 – Derivative Games
31:19 – Paper Vs. Physical
33:25 – Kilo Bars Concept
37:30 – Standard Practices
40:12 – Silver & Oil Correlation
41:15 – Gold/Silver Ratio
43:04 – Silver Stories
44:33 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Who benefits from the current crisis.
- Has Bitcoin been compromised by banking interests?
- Central Bank Digital Currencies and control of the coming financial system.
- Could the silver market end up like the recent problems with nickel?
Guest Links:
Website: https://silver-investor.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/silverguru22
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguru
David is a precious metals enthusiast with degrees in finance and engineering, and he originated The Morgan Report. This monthly report covers economic news, the global economy, and substantial capital gains by investing in the Resource Sector. The Model Portfolio includes top-tier, mid-tier, speculative, and special situations.
David considers himself a big-picture macroeconomist whose main job is educating people about honest money and the benefits of a sound financial system.
A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker worldwide, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has interviewed- The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Investing Rules, and numerous other publications.
As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report, and numerous other publications.
Tom welcomes back the dynamic charting duo Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim. They highlight some rather alarming charts while making market forecasts that are quite concerning.
Kevin discusses the breakout in European electrical prices and natural gas. He believes this is a clear indication that hyperinflation has begun. The U.K. has had a four hundred percent move in electrical prices, which is unprecedented. We see the same thing with natural gas. If you calculate from the March 2020 region, we are up 4600 percent and 320 percent above the previous all-time high. The charts have been hinting for some time that something bad was occurring.
Inflation has been building for some time and the idea that it's caused by the current situation in Europe is laughable. Patrick explains how gold sniffs out future market action. Gold had a big move in the past couple of years, which necessitated a period of sideways consolidation.
The U.S. and German PPI indexes along with oil are reflecting a paradigm shift in global markets. All fiat currencies are trending towards zero.
Kevin looks at the dollar index and shows us why he expects a rather sharp decline from here. The seven-year rate of change for the dollar looks very bearish and maybe a better indicator than price alone. They believe the dollar index is now due for a sharp decline. The inflation-adjusted dollar chart shows a steady decline following a long-term trend channel.
Be prepared, when the dollar declines and most investors realize it, you will want to be ready for the big move in metals.
Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar appear poised for a breakout versus the US Dollar.
The miners appear to be out of a rough patch and now we're heading toward a final breakout line. Now is an excellent time to be buying silver to protect your purchasing power. Anyone making minimal wages is losing purchasing power rapidly.
Patrick shows several charts including a possible road map for gold. It appears that it was about to break into a new seven-year-long bull phase. Take the big picture view and consider buying into weakness.
Lastly, they discuss silver and where the rate of change indicates we could reach the coming bull market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions1:20 - Technical Analysis3:40 - UK EU Energy9:15 - Golds Predicative Powers12:32 - PPI Indexes & Oil19:37 - U.S. Dollar Index25:38 - Commodity Currencies26:43 - DXY Inflation Adjusted34:47 - XAU Miner Ratios37:22 - Metals Vs. Wages44:28 - Pitch Fork Levels45:07 - Gold Log. Road Map47:32 - Cycle Charts57:28 - Silver & Gold Targets1:04:36 - T.A. & Probabilities1:07:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Electricity, natural gas, and hyperinflation.Current causes of inflation and PPI indexes.Why the dollar index seems poised for a significant decline.Outlook for precious metals and other commodities.
Patrick Karim Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comStocktwits: https://stocktwits.com/badchartsYouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress and maintaining a successful career.
Kevin Wadsworth Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthstarchartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comArticles: https://goldtadise.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Adviso...
Tom welcomes to the program a different Tom named Tom Luongo, this one comes with slightly more hair. Mr. Luongo used to be good at a thing called blogging back in 2003 and 2008. He has since decided to return to the public eye as he occasionally opines opinions longer than a tweet. He believes social media should be reserved exclusively for puppy and unicorn videos.Mr. Luongo is a hard-core libertarian and believes in human rights and is therefore against war as a matter of principle. Wars support the state and they are the worst possible outcome of human interaction. The Ukraine war is full of disinformation and bias from the media and as always the first casualty in war is the truth. Russia appears to generally be less biased in its reporting. The Russians feel this is the least bad action they can take regarding Ukraine at this time.Misinformation is information with the intent to mislead whereas disinformation can just be incorrect information. All information needs to be examined with a critical eye and the motivations of the source should be questioned.Much of the world has underestimated Putin largely due to incompetence. Power tends to make politicians lazy. However, when you don't have a lot of power, you have to be cautious. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, is an excellent diplomat who has garnered the respect of many countries.Putin wanted a multi-polar world with plenty of co-operation around Russian interests. The West has failed to listen and they naively, believed they could win in Ukraine and place missiles on the Russian border.Our Western governments are working for foreign actors, namely the Davos World Economic Forum. These people are driving policy and damaging the West. These European interests want to see the United States weakened or destroyed. They need the rule of law in the United States to collapse so they can have implemented their great transnational superstate reset. They know if they can destroy Russia, then they can then take on China.Tom explains how Putin was able to clean up and restructure Russia over the past two decades. Russia has benefitted greatly from the hard times creating quality people. They have built up a massive war chest because they are a leading exporter of many commodities.Putin understands the importance of taking advantage of your opponent's weakness. He will likely back a new domestic ruble with gold. He may then allow backchannel financial systems like cryptocurrencies. Life remains fairly normal in Russia, with most of the panic and problems being international. Russia has weathered far worse situations.The financial system is breaking down and the Davos crowd is desperate. The entire world is built on a foundation of paper gold as a means to lever everything. Russia is capable of forcing financial discipline on the entire world and we're getting close to the next act in this drama playing out.The Europeans hope to create a quagmire for Russia, but it probably won't work. The Eurodollar futures curve is going flat and even the Fed is likely to impose fiscal discipline. Should the U.S. raise rates, it could crush Europe.Ukraine won't be planting any crops because the diesel supplies have all been blown up. There is no wheat or corn futures market. A major political shakeup is coming to the U.S. Congress in November, assuming the world survives.There is a righteous amount of anger in Russia and Ukraine needs to surrender quickly or politicians will be swinging from lamp posts. Those in power in Ukraine are receiving very bad advice from Europe.A restructuring of the financial system could be done with at most a couple of years of pain. Today, we have the choice of either a bad period or a far worse time, perhaps even starvation. Economics is blood and most of our politicians don't even understand the basics.The world is fracturing from the global agenda and these globalists still believe they are winning. Europe is done and they are going to be destroyed ...
Tom welcomes Gregor back to the show to discuss the action in the silver markets. He's seen a clear increase in silver demand from European and Canadian markets. There is a lot of unease in the world and that seems to be driving demand.
Having metals is important because cash in the bank doesn't really exist in a physical sense and it's also the bank's property. Essentially, you are an unsecured creditor.
The dollar had a confidence crisis around 1981, and the action of Volcker boosted that confidence when he raised rates. Today, we are at a similar point with inflation entering the danger zone. However, the Fed can't raise rates enough to rebuild confidence because of the massive leverage in the system. MMT theory claims it doesn't matter how much we print. There is no good ending to this economic situation and the dollar is likely to lose its reserve status this decade.
Gold and silver should be higher than they are now. It seems like they are being pressured to stay down. This isn't necessarily a bad thing because it still gives people an opportunity to buy.
He explains how they have limited exposure to other parties in the event of nationalization. If you're storing your gold with a global storage company they may be obligated to obey certain regulations around the nationalization of metals. This is why Singapore is advantageous because their government is the last place that would ever consider nationalization. Singapore is very wealthy, doesn't have much debt, and its pensions are fully funded. They have a lot of financial assets which offset their debt. People have a lot of confidence in the Singapore government and the country has excellent private property rights. Also, Singapore has a sizeable military and air force in many ways it's very similar to Switzerland.
Gregor discusses how their Cache token works and is fully backed by physical metal. These tokens can be traded freely and also converted to gold. These can of course be converted back to Bitcoin and used with many exchanges.
Their new vault has the highest capacity of any vault in the world. The size of the vault could also enable the storage of other metals such as aluminum and nickel.
Investors should consider putting some of their money into gold and silver. Having bullion seems more important now than ever.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Canada2:42 - Cash & Banks5:33 - Bullion Premiums6:43 - Inflation & Dollar11:20 - Inflation Drivers13:25 - Offshore Bullion19:48 - Cache Token24:34 - Singapore Facilities34:34 - Other Metal Storage41:59 - Platinum & Palladium44:05 - Inflation Assets47:40 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
The importance of having metals in this economic environment.How Cache gold is backed by physical metals and yet freely tradeable.Vaulting solutions and why Singapore is a safe jurisdiction.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/gregorgregersenWebsite: https://www.silverbullion.com.sg/Cache Gold: https://cache.gold
Gregor Gregersen is the founder and owner of Silver Bullion SG and Safe House Depository, a premium bullion dealer and storage facility in Singapore. Gregor has a background in finance and software development. Gregor was a Senior Data Architect for Commerzbank in Germany. He started Silver Bullion Pte Ltd. In April 2009.
Tom welcomes David Murrin to the show. David discusses his five model of empire and how he was able to predict that Russia would invade Ukraine. Western governments have pushed all the adaptive people. The United States is now in the fifth stage of decline. We live in a watershed time of transition of power and we're in a Kondratieff winter. Nation-states fight over resources and these are the main drivers of past wars.
Russia tried to return to the collective western fold but has been largely rejected.
David discusses the cycles that drove the cold war and the inflation during the 70s. Excessive money printing and a reduction in productivity are creating this decline. Structures are weakening in the West and our leadership is lacking. A series of disastrous Presidents have only exacerbated the problems. This decade is going to see a huge shift in commodity markets.
Putin is not a mad man. Anyone that believes this is failing to understand him. There is nothing illogical about the man. Putin doesn't play poker he follows thru on his statements.
Huge gas resources were found in Ukraine in 2012. This is a reason why the West became directly involved in the country. This energy competition is not acceptable to Putin and he already seized significant gas resources off the coast of Crimea.
Russia's weapon systems are designed to completely thwart the West's nuclear defenses. Putin has very carefully calculated his war to completely collapse Ukraine's will to fight. His use of nuclear leverage completely threatens other European nations.
Once Ukraine falls it's highly likely that Taiwan and South Korea will suffer the same fate.
Should Putin fail we could see a pro-western government in Russia. Should that happen China would lose its source of resources. China's nuclear deterrent is limited but when allied to Russia it's much stronger. The longer we wait the stronger the bonds will become between China and Russia. Sanctions aren't going to hurt Russia as the West will experience a big energy shock.
He believes in the importance of reducing CO2, adopting green energy, and most importantly making use of nuclear and thorium power solutions.
We're now in the bubble of all bubbles and entering decline. Bubbles have created the illusion of successful markets and those in charge can't see the magnitude of what is coming.
The dollar will lose another 30 percent in purchasing power as a result of hegemonic power decline. This is similar to what Britain experienced around 1914.
Precious metals will be the way to hedge against the coming market risks. This combined with mining stocks has enormous potential to outperform this inflationary cycle.
Lastly, he discusses potential price targets for precious metals and why they will likely be astounding. There just isn't enough metal to go around and just imagine what happens when inflation is two or three times higher than today.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Predicting Invasion16:30 - NATO and Conflict?23:57 - Europe and Energy25:48 - China & Russia29:04 - Russia & Commodities31:16 - Global Energy Shocks35:35 - Doomsday Bubble38:24 - Dollar Outcome40:44 - West Outlook45:33 - Hedging The Risks49:15 - Sector Rotation?50:35 - Crypto Market Thoughts52:05 - Metal Price Targets53:35 - Gold Standard & Putin58:49 - China Gold Reserves59:38 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Putin's strategy for breaking NATO the Wests problems of dealing with nuclear blackmail.Why the West is in decline and his thoughts on the dollar.Importance of nuclear and reducing carbon.Hedging the coming inflationary risks with precious metals and mining equities.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepi...
Tom welcomes Patrick Yip to the show. Patrick is the director of business development at APMEX, the largest precious metals dealer in the United States.
Patrick discusses how everything is becoming more expensive and we see that in the one year performance of most commodities. The CPI report of 7.5% seems to be very understated. This rate of inflation alone would remove 35% of your purchasing power in five years.
He discusses the bar shortages during the silver squeeze. Premiums remain somewhat higher than pre-covid levels and have yet to decline. They are seeing wider margins across the supply chain.
Patrick discusses their most popular products which are typically U.S. gold eagles. Silver rounds like Buffalo's are popular along with various discount bars for metal exposure. Silver eagles are also quite popular.
He explains how everything they bring in is checked for authenticity. It's important to keep in mind who you are buying from and do they have a good reputation. He recommends you buy only what you understand. Numismatics means coins that have collector value above the value of the underlying metal.
Patrick discusses the procedure for purchasing bullion back from retail investors. The market for metals is extremely liquid so it's fairly easy for them to sell metals.
He discusses the OneGold service and how that may be a good option for those who want exposure to metals but don't want to hold the metal themselves. It's a pooled service but is allocated and segregated. If you want to take physical possession you will need to cover any premiums.
He discusses the pros and cons of ETFs like the GLD and SLV. The biggest issue is that they clearly state metals are not insured. You don't know where the metal is stored or if it's secure. ETFs are often far removed from the actual metal since it's held by other parties.
Everyone's allocation for metals is different. They've looked at fifty years of data and compared returns for different investments. A gold weighted S&P portfolio is shown to outperform.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Historic Markets5:20 - Demand & The News8:43 - Silver Solutions11:12 - Premiums & Products15:13 - Watch the Spread17:43 - Collectible Coins22:52 - Selling Your Bullion24:22 - Storage Options28:33 - Bullion Credit Card30:20 - ETF Downsides31:54 - Allocation & Risk34:10 - Metal IRAs36:05 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Inflation and metals pricing and supply over the past couple of years.Popular products and the importance of understanding what your buying.Their OneGold bullion service and their upcoming metal backed credit card.Concerns around insurance and safety of metal ETFs and IRAs.
Guest Links:Website: https://apmex.comOneGold: https://onegold.comEmail: patrick.yip@apmex.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/Apmex
Patrick Yip serves as the Director of Business Development at APMEX, and currently manages the fast-growing digital precious metal platform, OneGold.com, which has processed over $650MM in transactions during its first three years in business. Mr. Yip joined APMEX in 2011 and has held roles in Merchandising, Sales, Project Management and Business Development. He played a key role in the company’s 250%+ growth on marketplaces such as eBay, Amazon and Walmart. Prior to APMEX, Patrick has held roles at asset management companies, and at Fortune 500s, such as Disney and Twentieth Century Fox.
Tom welcomes Peter from St. Petersburg Russia.
He has a background in economics and finance while also being a private investor in both stocks and cryptocurrency.
Peter was just old enough to remember the collapse of the Soviet Union and recollects the emotions of family during that time.
The Russian stock exchange has been closed for several days. Some of his foreign brokerage accounts are also suspended or closed. Just a few weeks ago few could have predicted what is transpiring. Before the invasion markets felt riskier and in hindsight, he would have preferred to have taken additional precautions.
Peter has been buying gold coins for several years and normally the premiums are around four to five percent. Current spreads are between thirty and forty percent. ATMs are limited to 10,000 rubles (USD 150) and the ATMs are no longer able to dispense Euros.
He believes the last straw for Putin was the threat and support from western powers for arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons. This was an unacceptable risk to the Russian state. Putin's objectives appear to be the replacement of the Ukrainian government and the disbanding of its military. Peter has extended family in Ukraine who have been witnessing the conflict first hand.
So far Ukraine's demands at the negotiating table have been unacceptable and little headway has been made. Thankfully, both sides have agreed to open humanitarian corridors.
He discusses the increasing bias against Russia and contrasts the global reaction with the relative lack of complaint of America's past 'interventions'.
So far life in Russia remains fairly normal and most forms of payment still work. Inflation hasn't shown up in goods yet but that seems likely to change. The Ruble has declined by 30% over the past few days and spreads on currency trades are high.
He remains concerned about the potential for internal problems in Russia over the long term. The anti-Russian hysteria may limit the options for moving out of the country. Discrimination against Russians appears to be an escalating problem.
Most people in Russia support Putin and understand their governments' motivations around Ukraine. Protests against the conflict are fairly limited, but this could change.
Putin consistently gets good ratings despite what the opposition may claim. Anyone living in Russia can see that Putin has the majority of support.
He says, "The more the world interacts, the more value we can bring to each other. On a basic level, we all have much in common. These conflicts are not helping humanity to move in the right direction, especially when one considers the risk of a nuclear exchange."
You should have a disaster plan and think carefully about potential problems. There are always unforeseen risks like bank runs or market closures. Even 'safe' investments like bonds aren't useful in the current Russian environment. Being independent and non-reliant on the grocery store is a very good idea along with having a stockpile of medicine on hand. Also, important is having a backup home in a remote location.
Lastly, he notes that the West has frozen 300 billion in Russian reserves and that other countries are probably watching that situation very carefully.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:47 - His Perspective5:20 - ATMs and Cash6:22 - Recency Bias8:26 - Media Bias10:53 - Conflictions12:20 - Putin's Motivations15:08 - Hot Zone Conflicts18:33 - His Current Finances20:16 - Inflation & Spreads24:12 - Investing Thoughts26:20 - Sentiment & Russia28:15 - Putin's Ratings30:06 - Russia & the Pandemic33:49 - Hard Times & Savings37:33 - Interconnectedness40:23 - Important Lessons43:58 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode:
His background and being caught somewhat off guard by the conflict.Russian markets and the current situation on the ground.Sentiment against Russia and the motivations of the Russian government.
Tom welcomes Matt Fernley to the show. Matt is the managing editor of Battery Metals Review and Head of Research for Westbeck Capital's Volta Fund.
Matt discusses how the green energy transition is impacting inflation due to moratoriums on oil and gas exploration. There is a general public impression that we won't need as much oil due to electric vehicles. However, ICE vehicles will continue to be the majority for some time. Europe is very dependent on Russian gas for electricity and heating. A lot of analysts are predicting that oil could go much higher.
There are two issues with EVs. The first is their current cost and the underinvestment in raw materials. We're going to see higher prices for all the battery metals much as we have seen with lithium.
The rise in energy prices is also having an impact on the cost of "refilling" electric vehicles.
Renewables are not a panacea because they do not provide baseload power. They only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. To fix this problem you need large energy storage solutions and nuclear.
For the last twenty years, the western world has shifted its manufacturing base to China. China has now clearly shown that they have little interest in making low-cost materials for the West. Therefore, huge increases in operating costs are coming as we will need to build back our manufacturing industries.
Copper demand may be overstated as the world has already gone through significant structural changes in demand. Today's consumer requires less in the way of products than in the past. Just consider all the functionality in a smartphone.
He gives a breakdown of the nickel market, the classes of metal, and the price movements in recent years.
Lithium is currently in very short supply and that is the cause of recent price action. He has reduced his EV production forecast because of the lack of available raw materials. He says, "If you want to de-carbonize you have to invest in primary metal production."
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - ESG and Impacts6:22 - Hidden Cost of EVs10:29 - Renewable Issues14:25 - Structural Problems16:48 - Copper Perspective21:23 - Western Growth24:55 - Copper Picture27:44 - Nickel Overview41:28 - Lithium Market48:13 - OEM Supply Contracts?51:08 - EV Profitability?52:17 - Raw Opportunities54:27 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Green energy and the consequences of moving too quickly.Electric vehicle cost comparisons.Why inflation is a structural problem and the pitfalls of overseas manufacturing.Overview of battery metals including nickel, lithium, and manganese.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/Blog: https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/blog/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ReviewBattery
Matt has spent over 18 years as an equity analyst, following the Mining, Chemicals, and Industrial sectors. Starting his career at Warburg Dillon Read (now UBS Investment Bank), he was an equity analyst and also a global strategist for Basic Materials (chemicals, mining, paper, steel, cement/aggregates). Latterly he was a global strategist for the Chemicals sector. While at UBS his primary focus was on the growth of India and China and the development of materials markets due to structural changes in demand. He used previous economic take-off events in the US, Japan, and Korea to model trends in materials demand in China and India. He was then able to apply this work to food and made one of the earliest calls in the market on the importance of fertilizers and agrochemicals in early-2005.
Following UBS, he spent two years in hedge funds before joining GMP Securities (Europe) LLP as a Senior Mining Analyst and latterly Head of Equities Research. After GMP he was head of a small online property company for two years, before taking up the position of Materials & Cyclicals strategist at Haitong.Matt has published extensively on the Mining sector as well as the development of key mat...
Tom welcomes back Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, to the program.
Pento discusses the impact Russia will have on inflation. We're going to see more bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions as a result of the war in Ukraine. If it wasn't for Russia, oil prices would likely have declined. Economies and earnings are slowing.
There is an increasing risk of the credit markets seizing up. This could shut down the junk bond markets, commercial paper markets, and the banking system. The Fed claims that it will stop purchases shortly and begin raising rates. They plan to sell 80 to 100 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities. This will surge the cost of homeownership and mortgages will rise. The Fed realizes that people can't afford their rents. They will have to crush inflation and to do that they will have to crush rents.
We run the risk of seeing the long end of the bond market soar. You can't have one to three percent treasury returns in an environment of high inflation. The stock market is going to go down regardless due to stagflation. The most vulnerable in society are reaching the point of not being able to afford anything.
If China throws its weight behind Putin, that may embolden Russia. Russia could use China as a conduit to sell all its goods.
Russia has already de-dollarized and put all its money into gold. They can settle with many other countries with metals. This limits the United States' ability to hurt Russia with sanctions.
His model predicts dis-inflation followed by deflation later in the year. The dollar always strengthens during deflation and this hurts emerging markets. He has steadily been increasing his gold position since gold is driven by falling real interest rates.
Never before has the Fed been dovish when rates were near zero or when inflation was high. If you are not careful, you could lose fifty percent of your portfolio.
The authoritarian rhetoric we are hearing is dangerous, particularly as we progress farther and farther away from our founders. This nation was founded by those that were self-reliant and had a healthy distrust for government. This is no longer the case. We're seeing a lot of stirred-up division in this country when we should operate as one. The U.S. can be great again, but we can't give up our freedoms.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Russia & Inflation4:28 - Deflation Crash9:55 - Easy Way Out?14:05 - Russia & China19:14 - Media & Markets21:43 - Michael's Model26:55 - Lessening Effects30:58 - Model & Gold32:07 - Political Reality35:46 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
Impact of current political events on inflation.The Fed taper and the risk of credit markets seizing up.Market predictions for later this year.The dangerous rise of authoritarian rhetoric and division.
Guest Links:Website: http://pentoport.comE-Mail: mpento@pentoport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/michaelpento
Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with over 27 years of investment experience. He was the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios that raised over $3 billion, distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network. He is the author of the book "The Coming Bond Market Collapse" and has a weekly podcast called "The Mid-week Reality Check."
Tom welcomes Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees back to the show.
Luke explains the remaining options available to Russia and why the Chinese may benefit from the situation. We can't sanction Russia's energy because our own markets are so interconnected. Russia could ask for rubles or gold in exchange for energy. If that occurred Europe would have little choice. The real leverage in the Petrodollar system is on the 'petro' side. It will be interesting to see how this develops.
If energy payments begin moving outside of the SWIFT system, then the Petrodollar will be severely damaged. Regardless, it's going to be disruptive and we're going to see additional problems. Very likely we will see further money printing and more stagflation.
The United States' attempts to simultaneously take on both Russia and China is a bad idea. We're forcing the two of them together while Europe is trying to play both sides. This situation will end with China and Russia gaining status.
Russian citizens have also been buying gold. This crisis will hurt their citizens, but this isn't Russia's first rodeo. The fact that Putin has done this either means he's lost his mind or he has a plan and found a window of opportunity.
Luke discusses many of the problems that could be created because of sanctions being imposed on Russia. We could see serious spillover effects on bonds and real yields. The United States can't afford higher rates, and they can't remove Russia's oil without destroying their own markets.
Luke notes that we could see big changes should Russia use their gold as leverage. He gives us several possible scenarios that could occur should gold be revalued.
Given everything that is occurring, the Fed will only make a token effort on rate hikes.
Lastly, Luke discusse why having Bitcoin could be just as important as holding physical metals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:31 - Russia's Options7:55 - Forced Solutions10:14 - China & Europe16:06 - Russia's Gold20:37 - Bond Market Risks24:57 - LBMA & Comex Risk27:29 - Scenarios35:38 - Weaponizing Bitcoin38:26 - Fed & EuroDollar43:30 - Taper/Tighten?47:20 - Gold in 201949:58 - Trudeau & Miners53:53 - Crypto & Fiat Risk58:05 - Hedging Options1:01:55- Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Risks to the Petrodollar system and Russia's alternative options.Various possible scenarios and how they might play out.The Fed and their taper plans.Canada, global banking risks and why investors may want to hold some Bitcoin.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest's widely-read weekly summary ("Heard in the Midwest") for the firm's clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.
In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC's flagship weekly research summary piece ("Straight from the Source") for the firm's customers.
In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC ("Forest for the Trees"), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.
Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.
Tom welcomes Stephen Flood CEO of GoldCore. They wanted to build a segregated allocated gold storage system and they now have eleven vaults around the world. They currently manage around 300 million in assets. Their settlement system is very rapid and everything is quickly tracked to their client's accounts.
He explains the importance of having segregated and allocated ownership of your bullion. He says, "These are your assets managed by us. Investors should avoid paper derivatives and you want to see audits and full insurance."
It's important to avoid dealers with excess fees and offers that are too good to be true. Some of them have bait and switch-type models with are unethical. If you see advertisements on television for a dealer you are likely paying too much. GoldCore's purpose is to get you the best deal possible and we want you to have a good outcome. He cautions against buying numismatics from questionable dealers.
They're seeing a lot of demand for bullion likely due to inflation concerns. The broader consumer base is not interested in buying gold but he expects this will change. We're seeing seven percent inflation and it's likely much higher. It's not going to take long for money to halve in buying power.
There are many concerns with the Fed's mandates and he believes inflation is serious issue. Higher interest rates can reduce inflation but in doing so they will kill the economy. The leverage in the system is extraordinary. Should they increase rates it will kill Wall Street. The Fed remains in a difficult place but they will attempt to 'sweet talk' the markets not unlike a therapist.
When people begin to realize the future is uncertain and begin tightening their belts that's when gold prices shift en masse.
After the invasion of Ukraine, there was a big sell-off in markets and gold shot up until the Comex intervened. It certainly seems like there is manipulation in the markets. They don't want to send a signal to the populace that things might be getting out of hand. The current issues in Europe are likely going to exacerbate their energy problems.
Lastly, Stephen gives us his thoughts on cryptocurrencies and he has some serious misgivings about these markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Background & GoldCore3:18 - Segregated Ownership8:22 - Premiums & Demand10:08 - Fed's Mandates14:28 - Gold & Deflation15:54 – Volatility & Gold17:34 - War & Silver19:13 - Gold's Function21:20 - Gold Correlations23:04 - Crypto Thoughts27:16 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
GoldCore's bullion storage business and how they allocate storage of metals.Getting the best deal in bullion and avoiding excessive premiums.High inflation and the Fed's inability to respond.Manipulation in markets and his thoughts on cryptocurrencies.
Guest LinksTwitter: http://twitter.com/GoldCoreWebsite: https://www.goldcore.com/Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/GoldCore/269313393078986LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/companies/goldcoreYouTube: http://www.youtube.com/user/GoldCoreLimited
Stephen Flood is the CEO of GoldCore. He is a former Wall Street equity trader and FinTech expert. He has been involved in the precious metals markets since 2004 and has appeared as an expert contributor on CNBC, CNN, BBC, RTE & Bloomberg TV and has had articles published in the Irish Times, Irish Independent, and The Sunday Business Post.
Tom welcomes back Keith Weiner, to the show. Keith is the President & Founder of Gold Standard Institute USA and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Keith discusses how he makes his market forecast and why he begins with ruling out certain data. He examines the basic price for metals and looks at the spread compared to futures to determine market inventory. This was the hardest year to predict because we stand at a fork in the road for the Fed. Should the Fed hike rates there will be some sort of serious consequences.
There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment and we see that uncertainty with the dollar. People are starting to question the value of the dollar and considering alternative options. Gold is the constant measure of economic value and Bitcoin does not share that key characteristic. He doesn't believe it's money and that it is not sound. It also lacks the tangible physical aspect.
In an environment of capital controls being implemented gold and silver become increasingly useful. They also become useful in emergencies and can bring real options in a crisis
The M1 money supply doesn't have a good correlation to gold and that is because it doesn't work the way people believe.
People believe that inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon but it's more complex than many believe. There are regulatory issues with the production of goods today that inflate prices and many of these are not monetary related.
Gold tends to recover quickly in a market crash due to its characteristic value, especially when compared with equities and other paper assets.
Silver has more of a speculative component than what we see with gold. This causes silver to have different market dynamics.
Lastly, Keith discusses some price targets for gold and where it may head this year. He believes the Fed reaction and any rate hikes will be quite limited.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Report & Predictions8:54 - Report Accuracy12:35 - Gold & Bitcoin17:13 - Capital Controls19:13 - Fed & Ukraine20:55 - M1 & Gold24:05 - Rates & Inflation28:05 - Rates & Gold32:55 - Crashes & Gold35:38 - Gold Vs. Silver40:02 - 2022 Price Targets42:14 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
His latest report, market uncertainty and the difficulty of making predictions.The many causes of inflation and the effects of poor regulations.Gold and silver as safe-haven assets and why Bitcoin lacks important characteristics.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/RealKeithWeinerWebsite: https://monetary-metals.comWebsite: https://goldstandardinstitute.netFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/keith.weiner.5
Keith Weiner earned his Ph.D. from the (non-accredited) New Austrian School of Economics. He speaks worldwide about the failing dollar system and the need to rediscover the gold standard. To this end, He founded the Gold Standard Institute USA and Monetary Metals.
The former is a nonprofit focused on education and outreach. The latter makes it profitable to invest in the gold standard by paying gold interest on gold. Previously, Keith founded DiamondWare, a voice technology company that he sold to Nortel Networks in 2008.
Tom welcomes back Jeff Snider to the show. Jeff again brings us his extensive knowledge of bonds and the shadow money system.
Jeff explains the purpose of swap spreads which includes reflecting systemic credit risk. Back in October 2008 something significant changed as spreads turned negative. The 2008 crisis was primarily about the money dealers since without them there is no banking system.
We may not want a fixed supply of money because the world is quite dynamic. We need to adapt the Eurodollar into a more disciplined system.
Every country constantly needs dollars because otherwise, they can't participate in the global marketplace. When countries need dollars in a hurry it’s not unusual for them to sell treasuries.
The Fed is concerned that the public might begin to change their spending behavior because of inflation. The Fed today is more of a behavior influencer than a direct intervener in the markets.
The main parallels of today are the 1930s in the U.S. and the 1990s in Japan. We see similar pricing of current long-term bond yields to those times.
Gold prices this year are doing fairly well despite higher interest rates. Gold is often a reflection of long-term treasuries. The bottom line for gold is that nothing in the system has been fixed so gold will continue to do well.
There are many ominous signs of problems in the system. Compressed rates, flat yield curves, and negative rates are all indicative of massive problems in the monetary system. What form those problems will take remains unknown but they are stacking to the downside. It could be a recession or a decline in growth for part of the world.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Swap Spreads4:46 – Dealers & 08 Crisis9:00 - A Broken System11:50 - Fixing It16:41 - Treasuries & Dollars18:36 – EuroDollar & Inflation25:54 - Wage Price Spiral30:00 - Fed's Limited Controls35:20 - Interest Rate Behavior37:39 - Historical Parallels40:51 - Yields and Gold46:24 - Bitcoin & Risk48:53 - Stimulus & Economics51:29 - Helicopter Money?54:14 - Russia & Reserves59:41 - What is Coming?1:02:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Swap spreads and the 2008 Financial Crisis.Possible solutions to the world's financial system.Outlook for gold in this environment.Risks in the current global markets and what the next crisis might look like.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPWebsite: https://alhambrapartners.com/
As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College.
After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process. In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Management of Florida, Inc. During the early part of the 2000′s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for. As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research/management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance. As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion.
In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets. In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market’s resurrection.
In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment ...
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Peter Goodburn. Peter is the founding partner of WaveTrack International and has trading experience going back to the 1970s. He breaks down the concepts behind Elliott Wave trading and why it's very useful in predicting price action.
Peter discusses what the charts are indicating with regards to a diplomatic solution in Ukraine.
Sufficient volume must be available for good long-term timeframe results with Elliott Wave. Peter demonstrates how well Elliott Wave theory predicted the price action of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis.
Future price development requires a very long-term approach with Elliott Wave. He demonstrates the use of Fibonacci sequences and wave patterns.
Peter gives us his thoughts on the coming commodity supercycle and why the dollar will be a significant factor. He takes a good look at the oil and copper charts.
Inflation will head higher after a lull and that will help propel commodities higher. Further weakness is coming for the dollar which will also drive inflation.
He shows an interesting chart for Newmont Goldcorp and where he expects the miners to move. Silver will likely make new record highs. He believes that silver will begin to outperform gold.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Elliott Wave & News4:56 - Russia Thoughts8:31 - Elliott Timeframes10:37 - The Financial Crisis19:58 - Commodity Supercycle29:25 - Dollar & Commodities33:52 - CPI Thoughts41:12 - Gold & Miners50:00 - Silver Miners53:19 - Uranium1:01:42 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Elliott Wave theory principles and his thoughts on Russia based on their charts.How Elliott Wave predicts price action and why it was very useful around the 2008 financial crisis.The coming commodity supercycle, the dollar, and expectations for inflation.The miners and where the metals may head in the coming years.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTIWebsite: https://wavetrack.com
Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.
His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle.
He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott's (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled "the Elliott Wave Principle" (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group.
Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Tony Greer. Tony comes highly recommended by the 'Chicken with a Terminal' - Doomberg. He details his background on Wall Street and experience with both commodities and writing a morning newsletter.
Tony explains his two daily reminders which help maintain his focus on the markets. Assets are key and the Fed will continue to print. This is why the stock markets continue to rise. The talk of a taper continues while the Fed's balance sheet keeps ballooning. We have massively diluted the dollar over the past couple of years and therefore inflation is destined to continue.
Tony says he "hates losing money" and that helps him focus on the charts. Staying with what is working is key for him and finding the early-stage opportunities. Patience is key along with sticking to your strategy.
The tech sector is taking a massive percentage of the equities markets when compared with energy or resources. The ESG theme is choking oil supplies by squelching investment and canceling projects. He's looking for two hundred dollar crude prices in the future.
Our position on energy has deteriorated under Biden and we are once again highly reliant on foreign oil and OPEC.
He expects the commodity and resource space to do well during the inflation period we are entering. The world needs battery metals and other base metals to reach electrification goals. We're seeing a rotation out of everything tech and into other sectors including commodities.
He discusses gold and the risks that come with it. It's highly correlated to the dollar and often has early morning raids. For Tony, there are often way better trades.
The bullish case for crypto is being demonstrated right now with Trudeau's actions. Crypto may have a hard time rallying when commodities are moving. However, cryptos don't have to be performing to be important in the world's economy.
Lastly, he says, "Make sure you're adjusting your portfolio to deal with inflation."
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - The Morning Navigator5:12 - Post It Reminders9:12 - Staying Nimble14:42 - Risk & Leverage17:55 - Inflation & Oil24:54 - Europe Lessons27:34 - US Energy Policy30:13 - Equity Rotation35:28 - Bearish Signposts38:40 - VIX Thoughts44:20 - Gold Factors47:55 - Gold & Inflation50:20 - Crypto Markets54:48 - Concluding Advice56:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The two factors he bases his daily trades upon.ESG impacts on the energy markets and the risks of further inflation.Tech sector decline and the rotation into commodities and resources.Thoughts on crypto performance in a commodity rally.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgmacroWebsite: https://tgmacro.com/E-Mail: tony@tgmacro.com
After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony Greer followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market ...
Tom welcomes Mark O'Byrne back to the show. Mark is the Founder of Health Wealth Gold.
Mark discusses gold's lack of reaction to current global risks. The metals should have moved higher in response to inflation. Supposedly, they are anticipating rate hikes but a large move seems unlikely as that would crash the markets. Inflation is not transitory and we're just seeing the start of it.
He expects weakness in the short term for gold as Fed takes some sort of action. Generally, within a short period afterward, we will see gold break to the upside.
We have a multitude of risks and globally these risks have never been higher. This is due to the huge levels of debt and while deflation is possible central banks appear reluctant to take that path. Inflation will likely remain in assets like the vulnerable bond and real estate markets.
The debt bubble is absolutely massive when you factor in all the various forms of debt today. They are continuing to manage to kick the can down the road. However, nearly everyone today is financially impaired.
Sentiment for gold seems to be slowly improving but crypto has taken some of the luster away from the metals. We're seeing the direct risks of government intervention in Canada of all places. In the future, we are likely to see more direct encroachment into the lives of citizens. The idea of a cashless society appears to carry significant risks for anyone with differing views. The pandemic has shown just how little the governments of the world care about small business owners. Taking some physical possession of gold or silver makes sense along with storing some outside of your home country. Gold remains the premiere safe-haven asset in a world of government dictates. Don't have too much money in banks just keep what you need for day-to-day use.
He remains steadfast that silver should be priced much higher today. However, you should carefully consider why you own metals. Land is still relatively cheap in many places and self-sufficiency may be key in the future. Consider building communities of people with skills and like-minded goals.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Gold & Global Risk4:55 - Gold & Rate Hikes6:55 - Real Returns & Recession10:07 - Debt & Economic Health12:58 - Gold Sentiment Shift16:19 - Crypto & Gov't Risks22:46 - Attitudes Shifting24:14 - Silver Targets30:10 - Measuring Wealth31:38 - Gold & Central Banks36:32 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold in a world awash in asset bubbles and debt risk.Sentiment for gold and why everyone needs to hold physical against government threats.Thoughts on silver and the importance of understanding why you should hold metals.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/marktobyrneWebsite: https://healthwealthgold.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtcpfS0ZjfQEeOyYbw6xeYgLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markobyrne/
Mark O'Byrne is the Founder, Mentor & Ambassador, Inspirational Speaker, and Thrivability Expert for Health Wealth Gold.
Mark has dedicated much of the past two decades of his life to helping people understand our financial, monetary, and economic systems. Just a few actions can help people, families, communities, and nations take control of their lives and become resilient and sovereign.
Mark founded GoldCore, Ireland’s largest gold and silver broker in 2003 and exited in 2020 after they had made it into Ireland’s largest gold broker and storage provider. It's a respected gold bullion specialist known internationally with over 20,000 clients in over 140 countries and $1 billion in sales.
He studied history for my degree and has a lifelong interest in monetary history and gold and its role in protecting people from currency devaluations, the decline of nations and Empires, and economic collapse throughout history.
He is one of the leading experts on gold internationally with a high profile in social media & mainstream media having appeared on RTE,
Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn to discuss the latest news around the rapidly changing uranium space.
Justin discusss Cameco's recent conference call where they announced the restart of the MacArthur River Mine. Cameco stated that they have signed supply contracts for 70 million pounds of uranium. Overall this should be a postive sign for the market and may indicate a major change in contract demand. It will take Cameco up to two years to once again reach full production.
Sprott's entrance to the market last year with SPUT had a tremendous impact on the spot market. Current long-term prices are around $43 a pound but little insight can be garnered from contracts as they are shrouded in NDA's. All the different parts of the fuel cycle appear to be in a bull trend. Sprott intends to maintain the stockpile of uranium as a way to give investors expose to the uranium market.
Sprott is also working to takeover the UNM ETF in an upcoming vote. This will allow Sprott to have a large influence in the uranium markets.
The market for small modular reactors is largely an unknown but overall it appers to be a positive development. The first SMR in North America may come online by 2027. Many countries are building them including Russia.
Sentiment has improved somewhat in uranium markets but remains fairly low. At the moment there is a lot of fear and doubt across the investment space which is spilling over into uranium. However, Justin notes that Rick Rule is once again getting excited about the prospect of discounted uranium equities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Cameco Call5:58 - Restart Period9:39 - Spot Pricing17:14 - SPUT & NYSE18:25 - Supply Tightness24:16 - Reactor Extensions27:00 - Small Mod. Reactors29:40 - Market Sentiment33:54 - Uranium & Corrections36:10 - Cash Position37:00 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Cameco's recent announcements and the impact on markets.Sprott's plans and the effects of the introduction of SPUT.The benefits of small modular reactors and who is building these.Sentiment in the markets and why some uranium equities are discounted now.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsider
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uranium shares. Regrettably, the Uranium Insider Pro subscription letter's subscriber growth and breadth no longer allow him to provide this tool.
The success of Uranium Insider has been gratifying and the emerging bull market in uranium continues to offer an unusually attractive risk:reward proposition for fellow contrarian investors.
Tom welcomes a new guest to the show, Larry McDonald. Larry is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He created The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.
Larry discusses how bad leverage has become in the markets today. Small rate changes now create huge amounts of interest payments. The Fed will be unable to hike rates for long and that will be bullish for metals. The Fed is very far behind the curve. Many foreign countries including Poland, Brazil, and Russia, have hiked rates several times, while the Fed has yet to take any action.
Credit markets are weakening quickly, particularly in Europe, and inflation is becoming rampant. The yield curve could soon become inverted. Companies like Costco do well in recessions and are now outperforming.Larry explains how the dollar desperately needs another 'variant' crisis to save the day. This is due to the economics of capital flows moving outside of the U.S. economy. Today's media complex needs shock to capture the public's attention. We've seen an incredible tailwind for stocks, bonds, and growth stocks.
He explains the effects of risk on with miners and notes that silver can underperform gold in certain situations. Most economists have no understanding of risk management. Any shift from a hawkish to a dovish stance by the Fed can cause silver to outperform.
Tesla and other electric car companies are seeking ten-year contracts for certain commodities like magnesium, silver, and copper. These are not unlike the typical uranium contract. From here, silver miners could easily have 7x upside potential.
Their economic model helps them find the capitulation lows. Larry notes that we're currently approaching peak market exhaustion.
Holding metals for long periods is often a poor strategy. The early parts of a commodity cycle are going to be key for investors. Currently, aluminum equities are crushing gold in performance terms.
There is little room for error in the oil markets. Should demand spike and ESG continue to constrain the industry, we could see a large price shock. The energy demand alone from places like India and China will surprise in the coming years. ESG and Covid have crushed capital investment in energy and it's going to take time to turn this capital deficit around.
Lastly, Larry examines the relationship between the VIX and Bitcoin. Bitcoin gets hit hard when risk enters the markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:16 - Market Risks Today4:45 - Rates & Inflation6:58 - Bond Markets12:00 - Dollar Problems16:06 - Miners Outlook18:48 - Silver Mis-Priced24:55 - Platinum Fundamentals27:40 - Miners & Timeframes30:36 - Buying Right34:30 - Taking Profits37:54 - Oil & Demand43:36 - Bullish Action46:58 - VIX & Bitcoin49:23 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
How excess leverage is cornering the Fed and the possibility of a recession.Why the dollar thrives on crisis.His expectations for silver to outperform.Energy and why he expects further supply shocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://thebeartrapsreport.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/convertbondAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/2p93wy9x
Larry McDonald is a New York Times bestselling author, CNBC contributor, and Political Risk Expert. He is also the creator of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent Macro Research Platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas.
Thought-provoking Larry McDonald presents his captivating views on the Trump Administration, U.S. Financial Crisis, European Sovereign Debt, and China’s Economic Meltdown - spiced with actionable risk indicators, risk management lessons, and sprinkled with humor.
In 2016, Larry McDonald joined ACG Analytics in Washington D.C., as a partner with a unique skill set, as one of today’s leading political policy risk consultants and stra...
Tom welcomes back the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital, Kevin Smith.
Kevin shows us his recent presentation and how the commodities to equities ratio are near all-time lows. We have record valuations for stocks at large. During periods of high-inflation equity markets can go quite flat or even negative.
We're seeing concentration in just a few tech stocks and the top five market cap companies are now 54% higher than during the Dot Com bubble. We've seen some disappointing earnings results in recent weeks that have seriously impacted Amazon and Facebook as examples. It all just feels like a new Tech Bubble.
Few investors today remember a high-inflationary environment. We call what is coming 'the great rotation' which envisions investors leaving growth stocks and moving to undervalued inflation hedged assets.
The typical US Business cycle lasts ten years but during periods of inflation, the period tends to contract. We usually end up with more recessions and were now in the biggest asset bubble in US history. We could be heading into a downturn sooner rather than later.
He notes that rising high yield credit spreads are indicative of a recession. Credit spreads are beginning to head higher. Powell can't pivot because inflation is real and they need to maintain some sort of credibility.
The Fed is trapped and has never been more cornered than it is today. The Fed can do little or nothing to stop the rise in energy and agriculture prices. Structural supply problems aren't going away soon. This is an opportunity for investors to get properly positioned.
Lastly, Kevin discusses the lack of capital investment into commodites and exploration for new deposits. This lack of investment will certainly be key to bring about the next commodities boom.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Commodities & Equities3:02 - Stocks & Inflation6:35 – Tech. Volatility10:31 - Wage-Price Spiral13:30 - Fed & Rates17:32 - Commodities Outlook20:25 - US Business Cycles23:02 - Credit Spreads27:04 - Fed Speculation29:45 - CPI & Rents32:25 - CAPEX & Commodities36:35 - Exploration38:00 - Gold Discoveries43:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Equity valuations and the Tech Bubble 2.0High inflation and what we can't expect from the Fed.The US business cycle, credit spreads and why there signaling recession.The lack of CAPEX investment in commodities will surely drive the resource market.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CrescatKevinTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5xZQPnkw1zsrpYpHenaWBwWebsite: https://crescat.net
Kevin Smith is the founder and CIO of Crescat Capital. He has been managing investment portfolios since 1992, a career spanning multiple business cycles. Kevin has been the lead portfolio manager of Crescat’s four investment strategies since their respective inceptions. He is the creator of Crescat’s firmwide global macro investment process and systematic equity valuation model. Before founding Crescat, Kevin worked as a wealth advisor with Kidder Peabody. He earned an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business with a finance specialization and a concentration in statistics. Kevin received a bachelor’s degree in economics and German studies from Stanford University. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Tom welcomes back MJG Capital Managing Partner Matt Geiger to the show.
Matt discusses his fund’s performance during 2021 and how things have changed from 2020. 2021 was overall flat for the fund but marginally up. He explains their weightings for precious metals and his long-term investment approach. There are advantages to being more patient than other investors.
Matt is excited about the long-term prospects for energy metals due to the global decarbonization efforts. Energy metals are going to be a good space to be in but be careful of overall market risks. Ag commodities and fertilizer are also looking good.
Removing emotion from trades is crucial as well as having a good macro framework to follow.
Matt discusses the overvalued S&P and how equity markets are dangerously priced. Sentiment and valuations are currently lining up to bring serious concern regarding these markets. Equities are now valued higher than during the Dot Com bubble and in the last year, retail investors have put more money in markets than in the last 19 years combined. We’ve reached euphoric investment levels.
Passive ETFs have created a feedback cycle of re-investment but eventually, we will have a true risk-off event. This will bite investors at some point.
The major trends will eventually reverse so it’s important to have a defensive approach. U.S. performance has to reverse compared to the rest of the world at some point and begin to tread water. The focus on growth over value is due to lower interest rates and the resulting economic forecasts.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:52 – The Year Ahead
6:36 – Long-Term Approach
9:00 – Position Trimming
13:14 – Macro Framework
17:06 – S&P Risks
22:00 – ETFs & Crashes
24:22 – Trends & Future
28:45 – Position Concentration
31:40 – Finding Deep Value
35:18 – Prospect Generators
38:53 – Private Placements
42:48 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Fund performance and state of the equity markets.
- Energy metals potential over the next decade.
- Passive ETFs create outsized market risk.
- Finding deep value in resource companies.
Guest Links:
Website: http://mjgcapital.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/geigercounting
MJG Fund Review: https://mjgcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/January-2022.pdf
Mr. Geiger is Managing Partner at MJG Capital, a limited partnership specializing in natural resource investments. The partnership is long-only and holds a concentrated portfolio of resource equities. Investments include explorers, developers, and producers of precious metals, energy metals, industrial metals, and ag minerals. Matt is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and previously founded a venture-backed technology company most recently valued at $150m.
Tom welcomes Tim Price from Price Value Partners to the show. Tim argues that markets are completely irrational and central bankers are clueless. Bonds have become the enormous red-headed step-child of the markets. What happens with bonds affects every asset on the planet. Even the concept of interest rates at or below zero is completely extraordinary.
Ninety percent of those in finance today have no real understanding of what money is or its importance. The current money system doesn’t share any of the key characteristics of sound money.
There are three possible ways out of the debt problem but politicians always choose the inflation route because that’s where the political incentives align.
He is concerned about the possibility of a crack-up boom because that could result in messy high inflation. We had several major shocks in the 1970s which ended with all sorts of civil tensions, not unlike today.
The Repo market crisis of 20198 may have been far more serious than the Fed admitted.
He explains their approach to protecting wealth in this environment. One approach is utilizing trend following while looking for value. They try to balance their portfolio against risk.
Western economies are hyper financialized and most consider gold to be a product of a bygone era. People have lost touch with the source code of what is real money. Money today is an abstraction of an abstraction and gold is the one tangible form.
Crypto to an extent has grabbed the media limelight rather than gold.
It makes no sense to value gold in dollars if the dollar itself is not worth anything. There is no definition for the worth of a dollar. The gold rally will take off when gold finds new highs in every currency in the world.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:33 – Market Insanity
5:13 – Bonds & Rates
8:43 – Currency & Liberty
12:34 – Political Incentives
13:46 – Crack-Up Boom
15:09 – U.S. Zero Rates
19:08 – 2019 Repo Markets
20:34 – Navigating the Storm
27:06 – Misunderstood Gold
29:15 – Evaluating Miners
31:48 – Crypto Vs. Gold
33:30 – Gold Stability
34:30 – Drivers For Gold
41:20 – Investing Vs. Trading
42:29 – Wealth & Risk
48:08 – Permanent Portfolio
52:47 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The current state of the equity and bond markets.
- Money, liberty, and measuring wealth against the dollar.
- Why gold’s function is largely misunderstood today.
- Balancing investments against risk.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/timfprice
Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/
Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentary
His Book: https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360
Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms.
Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios.
Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website.
Tom welcomes John Roque back to the show. John is senior managing director and head of technical strategy for 22V Research.
Gold is showing decent relative strength. We’re in a commodity cycle since the Covid low of 2020. He is uncertain if gold will participate because of inflation or if it will outperform during periods of deflation. He wonders if gold is hindered because of a lack of investor interest. At an institutional level gold may not have the interest of fund managers. Those with good experiences in gold markets are few and far between in this era.
John discusses his experiences with those that invest in gold over his career. The Fed balance sheet is at unprecedented heights and we see speculation across all asset classes. Gold remains restricted with many investors tired of looking at it. For this reason, gold may be a good contrarian play.
Crypto is an easy asset to acquire in this era and many believe that it only goes up. He discusses some of the controversial players in the Bitcoin space including MicroStrategy and El Salvador. Gold might be starting to outperform and it carries a lot less risk.
He discusses how ESG mandates are pushing more investors toward technology and this has caused issues with capital in other sectors like energy and resources. The only way investors will embrace other sectors is when tech fails to participate. No one is prepared for tech to underperform.
He doesn’t believe the Fed was evaluating the CPI number properly. They seem to have overlooked the data. Historically, CPI can get quite non-transitory for extended periods. The PPI shows that the S&P often has problems when inflation gets high. Inflation will likely be even higher by the end of the year.
John expects the Fed will closely watch the S&P and do their best to keep it propped up. If it comes under pressure their confidence to taper will falter.
The concentration occurring in the S&P is quite concerning and there is plenty of room for investors to get hurt.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:30 – Recent Article
2:40 – Gold Therapy
11:35 – Contrarian Views
13:06 – Crypto Vs. Gold
15:29 – P.E. Conditions
18:20 – Brobdingnagian
21:21 – Commodity ETFs
24:50 – Not Growth Ratio
28:12 – S&P & Energy
29:55 – Fed CPI Metrics
34:56 – S&P and the Fed
38:47 – Stock Concentration
42:43 – Scoring Equity Mkts
45:52 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Gold’s performance and the lack of institutional investor interest.
- Risks with crypto and the belief that numbers always go up.
- Fed’s inflation targeting and its failure to recognize where inflation was heading.
- Why the Fed won’t allow the S&P to falter.
Guest Links:
Website: https://22vresearch.com
Free Article: https://22vresearch.com/2022/01/19/sleeping-giant-awakens/
John Roque is Senior Managing Director, Head of Technical Strategy for 22V Research.
John’s worked on Wall Street since 1987 with his research background beginning in 1990. From 1990–1994, Mr. Roque worked at Safian Investment Research and then from 1994–1998 at Lehman Brothers, where he partnered with long-time technician Steve Shobin. He was at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder (and its incarnations) from 1998–2009 and then a short stint at WJB Capital through 2011. From 2012 to 2015 Mr. Roque worked on the buy-side at Soros Fund Management and then from 2016–2018 at Key Square Capital Management. He returned to the sell-side in April 2019 at Wolfe Research before joining 22V.
Mr. Roque was a ranked Technical Analyst in the Institutional Investor Magazine’s Research Poll from 2009–2011.
He received both his BA with Honors in Economics and his MBA with Honors in Financial Statement Analysis, International Trade & Development, and International Economics from Fordham University.
Mr. Roque lives with his family in Mount Vernon, NY.
Tom welcomes Jesse Felder. Jessie is the founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report.
Jesse explains Warren Buffets’ metrics for measuring the size of the overall equity markets. Markets are currently thirty to forty percent higher when compared to that of the Dot.Com bubble. Equities have never been this highly valued relative to the overall economy.
Jesse explains how the Hindenberg Omen acts as an indicator for a market top and that a reversal appears likely. The smartest of the smart money appears to be exiting the market. Investors should be relatively cautious.
The Fed is looking to reverse monetary policy and that could bring a real risk of a bear market. Investors are overly complacent.
Jesse notes that some sectors are completely overlooked and undervalued. Investors are ignoring brick and mortar companies. In a correction, we could begin seeing rotation of funds to these other sectors.
When a large correction occurs there will likely be a point where the Fed will intervene. That point is probably when the Fed forecasts direct damage to the economy. A big drop in markets can have quite a psychological impact on spending by the public.
Copper acts as a leading indicator for inflation and has been signaling rising inflation for over a year. Should copper stop consolidating and break out to the upside again in a dramatic way would be a clear sign of loss of control by the Fed and of further inflation.
Energy is also likely to move higher while creating further inflationary pressure. Fossil fuels are certainly going to be necessary for the foreseeable future. Should the dollar reverse course both energy and gold would likely move much higher. Many energy equities continue to be incredibly cheap. So far the Fed has done nothing in terms of following up on their plans.
He says, “For those of us that are willing to put some thought into our trades there exists tremendous opportunity.”
Lastly, Jesse discusses the value of structural momentum analysis.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:36 – Equity Valuations
4:14 – Hidenberg Omens
8:39 – Fed & Correction
11:32 – Complacency & Risk
13:49 – Sector Rotation
16:40 – Powell Pivot Point
18:13 – Wealth Effects
20:19 – Dr. Copper & Inflation
26:45 – Energy & Input Costs
29:35 – Energy & Equities
31:32 – Growth To Value?
34:40 – Gold & The Fed
37:40 – Dollar Strength
39:00 – Inflation Hedges
44:20 – Michael Oliver
49:08 – Sell-Side Discipline
51:55 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Measuring the size and valuations of the equity markets.
- Equity risks and how will the Fed react.
- Copper continues to signal further inflation.
- Momentum analysis and benefits of using sell-side discipline.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/jessefelder
Website: https://thefelderreport.com/
Article: https://thefelderreport.com/2022/01/19/dr-copper-will-be-the-feds-arbiter-of-inflation-truth/
Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Tom welcomes Brian Hirschman back to the show. Brian is Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership which is occasionally referred to as the “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund.”
Brian expects inflation to persist for longer than most investors expect due to massive government debt. Inevitably, the U.S. government will default which will send miners and gold far higher. We could expect some benefits from labor and supply chains improving but inflation has many causes. At some point, government debt will matter, and much higher inflation will result.
Investors shouldn’t be too concerned about interest rates as the bigger driver of gold will be risks of default and inflation. Markets are different today due to the enormous size of the global asset bubbles. Gold will move higher when investors realize that inflation will be here to stay.
Crypto remains a much smaller asset class than gold and therefore the impact of crypto is likely not that significant. Many crypto investors are more speculative and most aren’t that interested in metals. Gold is the ultimate low-risk asset whereas cryptocurrencies remain risky speculative assets.
Over the long term, the gold price will drive the mining equities much higher and we’re starting to see this occurring. Gold miners should go up much higher than the returns on gold when the bubbles start to burst.
All governments have too much debt and are trying to keep rates low thru regulations. Banks now own four trillion in debt securities issued by the Fed. Should foreign debt holders realize the risks then they will start selling their treasuries. This could easily trigger a crisis since we can’t control other countries with regulations.
Marginally higher interest rates today will likely not have much impact on inflation but could impact default risks. Brian compares the status of the U.S. with that of the last European debt crisis.
China’s real estate bubble is even worse than that of the United States. When it pops we will see severe impacts on global markets.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:33 – Inflation Continues
4:06 – Gold, Inflation & Rates
7:15 – Crypto Impacts
9:56 – Mining Stocks
11:40 – Rates & Regulations
15:09 – Fed Trapped?
18:04 – Rates Vs. Inflation
19:00 – Yield Curve Control
20:58 – Demographics & Savings
23:59 – China Bubbles
26:57 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Continued inflation expectations and risks of government debt default.
- Global asset bubbles, interest rates, and investor risk.
- The outlook for gold and the miners.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLC
Website: https://www.hcapital.llc
Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the “World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund,” according to ValueWalk.
Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments.
Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale’s legendary endowment manager.
Tom welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello author of the Macro Compass Substack to the show.
Alfonso discusses the main drivers of economic growth and the effects of demographics. The labor force had been growing before the 80s but now with fewer children and older populations, it has plateaued and begun to decline. These changes are long-term and structural.
After 1971 and the scrapping of the gold standard there was a shift back to a fully elastic credit system. Hard assets are no longer required to back the currency. Society wants annual growth higher than one percent and today we use credit to expand the money supply. This can promote growth as it causes people to feel more wealthy which encourages spending.
Alf explains how there are two different forms of money in the system today. One is bank reserves and the other is the real economy. Q.E. expands the central bank balance sheet reserves but these reserves never flow to the real economy. They are used between banks to settle payments. Q.E. creates secondary and tertiary effects that eventually reach the stock markets and affect asset prices.
Reverse Repos operate as a relief valve for excess reserves because the Fed wants to keep bond yields in positive territory. So Repo’s is a facility where banks can park reserves and receive a small yield instead of purchasing bonds.
The main reason that bonds are bought today is due to regulatory requirements. Banks are required to hold bonds which are considered liquid assets. Pension funds also buy long-term bonds as a hedge to mitigate future risk.
He explains the Fed’s approach to maintaining their dual mandate of full employment and price stability. Currently, they are in a very tight spot as inflation is running hot.
The system is built around debt and is ‘working’ according to the establishment. There are no politically acceptable alternatives therefore the existing system is just extended by whatever means necessary.
Lastly, he discusses his approach to protecting his portfolio in this debt-based system.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Why the long-term drives of economic growth have peaked.
- How the modern unbacked elastic credit system operates.
- The two forms of money and why they are often confused.
- The Fed’s approach to price stability and full employment.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:06 – Economic Growth Drivers
4:00 – Technology & Productivity
6:17 – Debt Compensation
9:46 – Q.E. & Asset Prices
14:43 – Reverse Repos
18:43 – Taper Tantrums
22:44 – Real Bond Yields
25:34 – Feds Dual Mandate
29:20 – Can Kicking
34:39 – Risk Positioning
38:30 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf
Articles:
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/qt-explained
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/endgame
Alfonso Peccatiello is a former head of a twenty-billion-dollar Investment Portfolio and is a passionate global macro investor. He writes The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing actionable investment ideas and unique macroeconomic insights to enhance the risk/return of your portfolio.
Tom welcomes back Chris Irons, host of the Quoth The Raven podcast, to the show.
Chris discusses how we live in an age where narratives can’t be questioned without being considered a conspiracy theorist. The market however is demanding a solution to censorship and there are thousands of people looking for a place to put their content. Substack is filling an important part of that niche.
There are two narrative shifts occurring right now around Covid and inflation. The Fed is at a fork in the road between popping or continuing giant bubbles while monetizing the debt. The Fed is trapped and unlike in the past they don’t have a viable way out. In the past they were able to avoid inflation and the Fed was able to pretend to engineeer monetary prosperity. Now there is no way for the average person to ignore Fed policy with high inflation. They are running out of excuses and room to wiggle. He says, “The Fed’s feet are being held to a fire in a way that has never occurred before… Politicans aren’t going to be able to promise as reality is taking effect… Inflation is the number one political issue in the country.”
Crypto has brought financial understanding to a new generation who want to understand monetary policy. They are quiickly realzing the flawed nature of the existing system. This is a huge problem for the Fed because the new generation understand the scam.
He discusses Mr. Schwab and his controversial plans for a coming reset. People are seeing the global elite plans for what they are a terrible system which will harm many. Chris doesn’t believe the globalists have a viable way out of the system. The more educated people become to the system the fewer options will be left for the elite. We’re just in different stages of waking up.
We’re not far from a hyperinflationary mind set setting in with the masses. The environmental movement is only exacerbating the problems as prices for energy skyrocket. As energy rises so does everything and our leaders are terribly ignorant. They believe they can micro manage the economy and are stunned when their actions don’t work. Price controls do not work.
In this market all you need to have is a face and a dart board; brain not required.
Rates being left unchanged is probably bad news because investors wanted some sort of action. He anticipates more volatility and a move lower.
Capitalism and common sense are going to end the mandates and intrusion into their lives.
Talking Points From This Week’s Episode
- Censorship, new platforms and how the narratives are shifting.
- Crypotocurrencies and inflation are enlightening a new generation.
- Hyperinflationary risks and the cost of production.
- Incompetent political micro management and the economic consequences.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
1:43 – Substack Model
7:02 – Shifting Narratives
17:03 – Crypto Lessons
21:40 – WEF Great Reset
27:42 – Price Controls?
35:00 – The Coming Reckoning
36:45 – Fed Creations
44:54 – Rates Unchanged
46:00 – Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxUo55-0ScpOQNdug8FCzzA/videos
Podcast: https://quoththeraven.podbean.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/QTRResearch
Subscribe: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=0ded1dfd
Article: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/inflation-is-the-kryptonite-that
Chris Irons is the host of The Quoth The Raven Podcast.
Tom welcomes back Craig Hemke, founder of TF Metals Report to the show.
Craig discusses his annual metals forecast and the macro picture for the markets. Daily, the price of the metals is driven by derivatives and algos. However, if you can figure out the macro picture then your gold forecast will work out.
Very little has changed in the Feds Policy over the past few years. The Fed today is all publicity focused and the markets are keen to listen to their every word. It’s ridiculous but it’s the only thing that matters. The focus is now on predicting what the Fed will do in several meetings in the future. Fundamentals no longer matter and indexes are mostly driven by a handful of stocks.
Should the Fed decide to raise rates in March the actual impact won’t be felt until the end of the year. During that time inflation will probably become even further entrenched.
The breakout points are going to be very clear for the metals soon and investors are going to climb aboard.
Craig explains the Chinese credit impulse cycle which reflects their monetary policy. China is the largest consumer in the world and when this impulse falls commodities usually decline. This trend now appears to be reversing. During past impulses, the metals moved up by twenty percent. Interestingly, all commodities are now picking up.
The dollar remains in a very clear uptrend channel and that is creating a headwind for gold. He gives some estimates for where gold could reach by the end of the year.
Investors should be cautious as to when there is a rush for gold there will only be so much physical available amongst all the paper promises.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Forecasting Markets
5:52 – Fed Up & Influence
12:16 – China & Commodities
16:02 – Investor Interest
18:27 – Q1 Weakness & Dollar
20:23 – 2022 Predictions
24:02 – Price Vs. Value
27:09 – Pooled Storage
30:55 – Silver & GDX
35:33 – The Long Game
38:25 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Craig’s macro thoughts and gold forecast
- Fed policy and investor sentiment.
- Thoughts on inflation and dollar expectations.
- Silver and how it tracks the GDX.
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TFMetals
Website: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe
Recent Articles:
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/11307/macrocast-2022-reality-bites
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Silver-and-the-GDX-Craig-Hemke-January-25-2022
Craig Hemke, aka “Turd Ferguson,” was a licensed securities “professional” for nearly twenty years. Then, disgruntled by the fraud known as “financial services,” he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. Though otherworldly in his ability to forecast price movements, Craig is not a soothsayer, a psychic, or a witch, but, after all these years, he has a decent understanding of the forces at play in the precious metal “markets.”
Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove, President of Commerce Resources. Chris explains how four of seventeen rare earth metals are essential for electric motors and generators. Ultimately, most electric cars make use of these magnets in their motors.
China had managed to corner the market on rare earth metals with the help of government subsidies. Countries have been looking to find alternative sources as China has demonstrated its willingness to use rare earths for political leverage.
Demand has doubled in the past decade for rare earths. There are few new producers but several companies in the west are trying to bring new supplies to the market. Rare earths are challenging to both find and extract.
The demand for new electric vehicles remains particularly strong in Europe where bans on older ICE vehicles are coming. Therefore, demand is not going away and could become a serious challenge. Prices have fluctuated mostly upwards in the last decade and who knows what the next decade may bring.
Many concerned companies are seeking to reduce their reliance on these metals from China.
Lastly, Chris discusses the types of geology that tend to host these minerals and why few types of host rocks are economically viable.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction
0:47 – Rare Earth Elements
4:33 – Alternatives to China
10:50 – Rare Earth Demand
13:12 – Supply & Demand Shocks
20:14 – Supply Gap Predictions
22:18 – Western Production
29:44 – Geology & Mineralogy
33:32 – Environmental Concerns
35:52 – Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
- Importance and applications for rare earth elements.
- China’s role and the Western developments in the rare earth space.
- The difficulties of finding and producing economically viable rare earth metals.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescce
Website: https://commerceresources.com/
Suggested Links:Rare Earth Observer: https://treo.substack.com/
Adamas Intelligence: https://www.adamasintel.com/
Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.
Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks.
The markets appear to be experiencing deleveraging as large players exit while the smaller investors buy the dip. Bitcoin corrected early and we usually see a sell-off with crypto when equities correct. We’re near all-time highs for leveraged borrowing by investors.
Excess leverage creates bigger sell-offs and the margin calls can wipe out investors.
He discusses the trends for the S&P 500 and how we have moved towards the bottom of the channel several times. The trend appears to be flattening which is indicative of weakness.
Bitcoin is fighting around the 40k level and we have two converging trend lines. We could bounce but ultimately we’re looking at continued deleveraging in the broader markets. Watch the Fed should they blink we might be off to the races again.
Markets have been deleveraging and some stocks are starting to look attractive. Many technology names have been hit hard but the big names continue to support the indexes. Weakness is revealing itself in the underbelly of the markets.
Gareth believes 2022 will be a taper until around March followed by a rate hike. The market will probably throw a tantrum because it’s accustomed to all the easy money. A drop of twenty percent in equity markets seems likely and will force the Fed to react cautiously. Eventually, the Fed will lose complete control and the flood of money will get out of control.
Gareth is attracted to some stocks outside of the United States that are more reasonably priced. He expects money to start flowing out and some of it could easily head to China or Brazil.
Gold tends to lag inflation which also happened in the 70s. This is likely to happen once again. The more the Fed prints the larger the move in gold.
Lastly, he discusses the chart for silver and provides some targets for the metals. He’s looking for a good entry point around $19 for silver this year before the big move to $50.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:41 – Market Relationships
1:55 – Leverage & Sell-Offs
4:00 – SPDR S&P Chart
5:42 – Bitcoin 40k Level
8:08 – Taper Concerns
11:26 – Rates & Fed Control
13:47 – Current Plays
16:42 – January Effect
19:06 – Inflation and Gold
21:16 – 2018-2019 Gold
22:40 – Fed Constraints
24:08 – Silver Thoughts
25:31 – Newmont Chart
26:21 – Concluding Thoughts
27:23 – Metal Targets 2022
Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/GarethSoloway
Website: https://inthemoneystocks.com/
Website: https://verifiedinvestingcrypto.com
Blog: https://inthemoneystocks.com/author/gareth/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gareth-soloway-60827953/
Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has been an avid swing and day trader since his days at Binghamton University, where he studied Economics. After college, Gareth quickly excelled as a financial adviser, but his heart was always in swing and day trading. He had this long-standing belief that he could help investors make more money by advising them on shorter-term investments (holding a stock for days to weeks) than the buy and hold crowd who lost 50% of their money during every market collapse. “Why not profit during the bear markets just like the bull markets,” he said. So while helping others gain financial independence during the day, he spent his nights studying charts and price action, developing a unique market trading system that put his profits on a rocket ship. Some nights he would barely sleep when he found a new technique that was proven, once back-tested.
After building his wealth through trading in 2004, he left the financial industry to trade his own money and study charts and technical signals. This was when he met Nicholas Santiago. The two top traders spent days trading stocks/futures together and nights putting their collective brainpower into the pure genius that would become the PPT Methodology.
InTheMoneyStocks was launched in 2007 once the PPT Methodology was perfected. Gareth’s goal was to help average investors beat the best hedge funds and traders on Wall Street by teaching them the methodology and giving them his trades as he took them LIVE!
Since 2007, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway has maintained an over 80% success rate on swing trade alerts (verified 300+ trades per year) given to members in Verified Investing Alerts (formally named the Research Center) and a confirmed 94% success rate on day trades in the Live Day Trading Chat Room. He has given lectures at colleges around the United States, been asked to train hedge fund traders in other countries, and taught thousands of investors how to invest and trade profitably, achieving their dreams of financial independence. He lives life to the fullest and puts his heart and soul into teaching his members who come willing to learn the PPT Methodology.
Tom welcomes back Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG based in Switzerland.
Systemic risks are increasing but the general investor does not appear concerned. No one knows the size of the derivatives markets but it's likely in the quadrillions. Sovereign bonds make no sense for investors since the only way they can be paid back is with more money printing. They are extremely poor investments especially when you consider the dismal returns.
Pensions primarily hold bonds and stocks so eventually these funds will go bust. In real terms, Egon expects an eventual 90% decline in stocks. This sounds sensational but we experienced this from 1929 to 1932. The dollar will continue to collapse as it has already lost 98% of its value.
In this environment, your primary goal should be to protect your wealth. Central banks can't save the system forever eventually debt will collapse. This is the first time we've had a global debt system and the risks are enormous. The investment game is easy today because of the money printing. In the end, most investors will probably give back much of their fortunes.
The Fed will be in a serious dilemma this year as inflation will continue to be problematic. They will want to talk about tapering but the Fed can't afford it. Eventually, they will likely lose control of interest rates starting with the long end of the market.
The problems are already starting as we're seeing massive problems with energy affordability in Europe.
Gold is as unloved today as it was in 1971 and when it was around $300 in 2000. If a tiny fraction of funds decide to hold gold as a hedge there will be tremendous demand. Silver could be a spectacular investment if timed correctly but it's not wealth preservation in the same fashion as gold.
He doesn't expect that cryptocurrencies will operate in the same way as a store of value but anything is possible. Perhaps real wealth shouldn't be stored in digital form as it seems unlikely that governments will leave them alone.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - 2022 & Epic Risk6:43 - Dow in Real Terms9:06 - Global Unfunded Liabilities16:52 - Japan's Debt Levels21:41 - Fed Policy Reversal27:14 - Hyperinflation?32:05 - Property Values36:26 - Gold Cycles41:28 - Gold Vs. Silver44:32 - Cryptocurrencies47:32 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Massive global debt risk and the derivatives markets.Pensions, equities, bonds, and the dollar.Importance of protecting your wealth in this environment.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.goldswitzerland.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland
Egon von Greyerz is Founder & Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG. He started Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) in 1999 as a private investment company. From the very beginning, wealth preservation was an essential cornerstone of the company. In early 2002, they believed that financial and economic risk in the World was getting uncomfortably high. So that year, they made substantial investments in the physical gold market at $300 on average.
As gold started to rise in the early 2000s, demand for physical gold increased, and in 2005 they set up a regulated company in Zurich - Matterhorn Asset Management AG. A couple of years later, they formed GoldSwitzerland, which is the precious metals division of MAM.
Egon was Born with both Swiss and Swedish citizenship. His education was mainly in Sweden. He started his working life in Geneva as a banker and after he spent 17 years as Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc.
Since the 1990s, Egon has been actively involved with financial investment activities, including mergers and acquisitions and Asset allocation consultancy for private family funds. This led to the creation of MAM, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles. MAM is now the World's leading company for physical gold and silver outside ...
Tom welcomes back a man who should need no introduction, Doug Casey, libertarian philosopher, speculator, and author.
Since 2008, Doug has continued to be shocked by the Fed's reactions. They've printed trillions in new currency along with most other governments in the world. The little guys on the bottom are now seeing the full effects of inflation which is turning into a social time bomb. Bonds are now negative in real terms. Negative interest rates encourage borrowing and if we don't borrow the system will collapse. We're getting near the end game.
What we have in the west today is not capitalism but a form of corporate fascism where the government controls things fairly tightly.
Doug believes that gold is fairly well priced currently when compared with other assets. Gold for him is a savings vehicle and occasionally useful as a speculative asset. Gold equities on the other hand are currently quite cheap.
Doug discusses how Cypress confiscated a lot of money directly from the population's bank accounts and since then many other countries have passed laws to permit similar actions. Therefore, it may be foolish to have more than the insurable amount in your bank account.
The largest export of the United States is the dollar itself and we see this reflected in the trade deficit. There are many trillions of dollars floating around outside of the United States. Eventually, foreigners will decide they no longer want dollars and then that money will flow back in exchange for any goods left in the United States. This is a timebomb ready to go off.
Doug discusses how digital currencies issued by governments and central banks could function. He has serious concerns about social credit scores.
Your biggest risks today are political so it makes sense to have some bullion on hand. Diversifying politically is also important so keeping some bullion outside your home country can be a good idea.
Doug has always had an interest in commodities and we are entering a bullish period for them. He has placed a sizable investment into the carbon market but it's definitely speculative. He notes that bonds are the biggest disaster waiting to happen.
Talking Points From This Episode
The Fed is running out of options.Why your biggest risks are political.Gold and diversifying your assets against jurisdictional risk.Commodities and the beginnings of the bull market.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:28 - Fed Tools?5:06 - Ducking Economics6:40 - Greater Depression10:35 - Gold Thoughts13:10 - Cash & Value15:00 - Risks with Cash18:08 - Dollar Confidence20:30 - C.B. Digital Currencies23:27 - Bullion & Storage Risk24:48 - Media & Lockdowns27:37 - Favorite Speculations32:00 - Harnessing Psychology34:20 - His Portfolio & Hobbies
Guest Links:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEJR3OAeHBNz7aGtFRZXArQWebsite: https://internationalman.com/Amazon Books: https://tinyurl.com/an3uxhc
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on "rational speculation," especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug's most recent book, "Assassin," can be found on Amazon.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you're most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey's Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.
Tom welcomes back Lobo Tiggre founder and CEO of Louis James LLC. He is the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He specializes in evaluating resource companies.
Lobo discusses his thoughts on the Fed's actions but notes that he is not an economist. Inflation appears to be the trend and even Powell has retired the term transitory. Shutdowns and supply issues will take time to resolve so inflation and high prices are likely to persist. What happens this year is anyone's guess but the likelihood of a major market meltdown remains high. The growth outlook for overall equities does not look high.
Ultimately, gold is usually tied to the dollar and overall this past year has been good for mining companies. He is focused on building his gold and silver positions but remains very bullish on uranium. Uranium equities experience a lot of volatility but this can also serve as buying opportunities.
Lobo discusses his strategies for speculating on explorers and miners. The pre-production sweet spot is often an excellent opportunity. He likes to watch for explorers that continue to find opportunities due to a correct geological model. This year we will likely see a lot more mergers and acquisitions.
He questions the value of ESG models and the risks if society continues to make permitting hard for miners. Good corporate citizenship is important for companies but we seem to be in an era of heightened political risks. In the worst-case scenario, we could see mining in western countries become impractical.
Lastly, he discusses the possibility of substitutes for green energy metals. Copper will be needed in abundance regardless and further price rises seem inevitable. Oil is another sector that is hated and could easily become a good contrarian play. This year will be one for investors to take a careful active approach to their investments.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Fed & Market Reactions7:31 - We The Lunatic Fringe10:34 - Inflation Outlook14:56 - Gold & Inflation21:27 - Gold Vs. Silver24:10 - Evaluating Miners26:34 - Speculation Rules31:08 - ESG & Mining Risks35:28 - Uranium & Equities43:55 - Other Commodities49:04 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
Fed's actions and why inflation will persist for some time.Why 2021 was a good year for gold mining companies.Tips for evaluating companies and avoiding risk.Green energy and why the world will need more copper.
Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/
Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.
Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.
A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.
Tom welcomes back an absolute icon to the show, Bill Holter. Bill works and writes alongside the legendary Jim Sinclair at JSMineset.
Bill discusses the current liquidity situation with the Reverse Repo system. Banks can sleep at night with their funds being stored with the Fed while earning a return. However, the Fed can't allow interest rates to go negatives since that would indicate the dollar is worthless.
JP Morgan has a large derivative concentration which carries 3.3 trillion in counterparty risk. Globally, everything is a promise today as the world runs entirely on credit. Small failures can cascade like dominoes. The Fed can't truly taper and should they try we will see the next round of Q.E. within a few weeks. The Fed will likely attempt a small rate hike but multiple hikes seem unlikely.
The situation today is completely different than when Paul Volcker raised rates in the 80s. We're far more in debt than back then and the U.S. had plenty of collateral at that time. In today's world, there is massive leverage and every available asset is already encumbered.
Eventually, excessive money printing will completely dilute the currency and we already see that occurring with inflation. The Fed is completely out of means to limit inflation. Many countries are abandoning the dollar as quickly as possible.
He notes that more people are wanting to get their dollars out of the system and into gold. It's almost like a mini bank run. Inflation is causing part of this run but people are beginning to understand that something is very very wrong.
People become concerned with inflation when everyday items and taxes rise quickly. We're now a full year into fairly drastic price rises. Many narratives are failing including transitory inflation and those around vaccines.
Comex's open interest has been declining and there appears to be less interest in futures. There are increasing numbers of deliveries. The numbers don't add up. If you understand that all the news is fake and that basically everything is a lie then why would you believe any of the numbers? Soon people are going to count their wealth in ounces not dollars.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Credit Markets & Repos2:06 - U.S. and Negative Rates3:02 - J.P. Morgan Derivatives5:42 - Taper Expectations8:20 - Volcker Vs. Today11:45 - Inflation and Fed Tools13:10 - Getting Out of the System15:53 - Inflation Perceptions18:04 - Actuarial Deaths19:24 - Credit & Confidence23:56 - Comex Open Interest28:05 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Reverse Repos and contagion risks with derivatives.Fed cornered and unable to respond to inflation.Comex deliveries continue with open interest in decline.Governments are losing control of their fake narratives.
Guest Links:Facebook: https://facebook.com/groups/jsmineset/Website: https://www.jsmineset.comEmail: bholter@hotmail.com
Bill Holter writes and is partners with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration. Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to the management of paper assets as he foresaw the Great Financial crisis coming. In retirement, he and his family moved to Costa Rica, where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. He was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.
Bill has retained a working relationship with Miles Franklin and can help with your precious metals needs, including transacting, shipping, storage, and even safe deposit boxes in non-bank vault facilities. Feel free to contact him with any of your questions or needs.
Tom welcomes the little green chicken otherwise known as Doomberg. They are an anonymous publishing firm that posts on substack.
Doomberg comes from the basis of significant industrial experience. They have a unique understanding of just-in-time supply chains. It's fairly easy for them to understand what is occurring in the global logistics systems. They take pride in their ability to explain complex topics.
He discusses potential problems with line five which is a key pipeline and major source of energy for the United States. Green energy is having a serious impact on oil markets. He notes that many politicians don't understand the important difference between baseload energy and other more limited forms of energy. There is a catastrophic failure of leadership around energy in Europe and we're just beginning to see the problems.
They are questioning the availability of oil supplies and the long-term risks of shale oil. We're seeing a decapitalization of prior investments in shale wells. In addition, OPEC may be overstating its ability to produce. The emerging economies are going to need ever-increasing amounts of energy. There is no way we can decarbonize the global economy without massive human starvation if we don't rely more on nuclear.
Social media could magnify the speed of communication around supply and inflation problems. This could have serious consequences for the economy and markets should we see panic.
Doomberg often discusses the impacts of high natural gas prices on fertilizer production and prices. We are looking at much higher food prices as a result of gas shortages.
China, Russia, and India are stockpiling gold along with other commodities. They are believed to be underreporting their stockpiles of gold. Any price suppression in the West is only benefitting these countries that continue to buy.
Lastly, he discusses some of the speculative risks around cryptocurrencies.
Talking Points From This Episode
The consequences of poor decision-making.Nuclear, global energy concerns, and green energy.Natural gas, fertilizer, and higher food prices.Speculation in crypto, the risks, and concerns around Tether.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - Unintended Consequences3:20 – Urgent Call – Line 56:38 – Europe and Energy11:52 - Three Hundred Oil?16:19 - Emerging Economies18:57 - Nuclear & Uranium22:10 - Riots & Pain Points23:06 - Social Media & Inflation26:38 - Agriculture Impacts35:41 - China & Protectionism39:55 - Gold & The East42:50 - Debt Reset Inevitable45:32 - Golden Deception51:01 - Money Haters53:20 – Roles for Gold & Silver54:36 - Crypto Speculation1:00:31 - Kazakhstan & Mining1:01:47 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com
Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.
Tom welcomes back Rick Rule a man that needs no introduction. Rick discusses his newfound freedom outside of the securities regulations and Sprott. His focus is now on providing value wherever he feels so inclined. He has been able to build up a large community network and can now communicate in a detailed personal way.
Too many speculators don't ask the hard 'when' questions. Finding sectors that are out of favor or even hated means that as an investor you will have few competitors. It's important to be brave when others are afraid. Find a commodity that is necessary for humanity where prices are lower than the cost of production. That commodity must rise over time or it will become unavailable.
He discusses the opportunities the oil industry presented during 2020. It was fairly obvious that the price would have to recover. Rick remains very bullish on the oil sector as net present values are excellent. We're now seeing a similar pattern with uranium and with Japanese Reactors set to resume this year it will only get more attractive.
There is no way your savings can keep up with current inflation as negative interest rates are guaranteed. Quantitative Easing is just a different term for counterfeiting. Mathematically government debts can never be repaid they can only be rolled over. People should be concerned about their loss of purchasing power.
Over the last four decades, precious metals have comprised only one to two percent of total savings. Today they are at half of one percent. Rick is very bullish across the commodity space but cautions that commodities require patience.
Rick cautions that a worldwide recession or depression could upset the commodity apple cart. If we encountered a massive loss of confidence this would derail his thesis.
Crypto and precious metals are competing on the investment fringe. The combined market cap of cryptos and precious metals at ten trillion remains tiny compared to the 650 trillion in global markets. When institutions pile out of bonds and into tangible assets will cause the recent silver squeeze to look silly in comparison. If the friction involved in buying precious metals is eliminated that could have profound effects.
Rick discusses being astonished at how quickly the Sprott Uranium Trust was able to raise capital. Rick feels the price is heading from $45 to $70 over the next three years.
The copper industry isn't seeing little capital investment and therefore the outlook for its price is healthy. However, he currently prefers oil and gas because they are cheaper.
Talking Points From This Episode
Educating others in a personal way.Commodities and asking the correct questions.Uranium pullback should be seen as an opportunity.Why the metals could greatly benefit from crypto.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - Rule Investment Media3:28 - Regulations and Advice5:57 - Higher Quality Thinking11:19 - Notable Asset Classes20:50 - Bullishness & Stupidity23:12 - Scary Economic Cycles26:33 - Crypto and the Metals31:27 - Sprott Uranium Trust37:30 - Uranium Projects42:35 - Other Opportunities48:42 - Farm Land & Prices50:28 - Rick's Offer & Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/realrickruleWebsite: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr.
Tom welcomes a new guest Lee Adler to discuss how the Fed operates. The Fed creates money via their primary dealers which include banks in the U.S., Europe, and Canada. The dealers directly invest in the markets with the money they get from the Fed. This is why M1 and M2 metrics aren't that meaningful.
Permanent open market operations are just a different name for quantitative easing. Markets respond directly to Q.E. purchases as he demonstrates with a detailed chart. When Q.E. stops markets fall until the Fed is forced to re-intervene.
Reverse Repos are also available to banks and money market funds. Lee explains the purpose of the Reverse Repo program and the excess liquidity it creates. Now that Congress lifted the debt ceiling the Fed will want to rebuild its cash balance and likely resume selling new debt.
There will be an increase in treasury yields and markets will tighten but it won't happen until the slush fund is gone. This market top will be a slowly rounding one that will take many months. He says, "The Fed's history has been a series of long-term serial blunders. The next mistake is required by the last mistake and each one gets larger… at some point, we reach a critical mass where it can't be rescued." It's going to be very difficult to rein in inflation.
If gold can pop through resistance near these levels it will be very good for the miners. However, if it doesn't hold then we could see lower prices. So use caution. He notes that we are very close to the top in equities and it's getting risky. Whatever you do, don't fight the Fed and don't fight the trend.
Time Stamp References:0:00 – Introduction1:21 – M1 & M2 Money Supply5:55 - Chart & Q.E. Correlation9:46 - The Primary Dealers12:42 - Reverse Repo Program18:35 - Eve of Destruction24:27 - Fed & Treasuries27:09 - Melt Up?28:15 - Fed & the next Q.E.33:40 - Transitory or Crash39:35 - Gold & Mitigating Risk42:55 - News is Noise46:08 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
How the Fed creates money through primary dealers.Purpose of Reverse Repos.Overall direction for yields and the markets.Outlook for gold and protecting your wealth in this environment.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lee_adlerWebsite: https://liquiditytrader.comArticles: https://wallstreetexaminer.com/Articles: https://capitalstool.com
Lee Adler is published on LiquidityTrader.com, The Wall Street Examiner, and Capitalstool. He also published and was the lead analyst for Sure Money Investor and developed David Stockman's Contra Corner.
He has been in finance since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities.
Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner Lee was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years and specialized in the analysis of failed properties. He also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s.
Lee has been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since he was a teenager. Yogi Berra said, "You can observe a lot by watching. I've seen a lot through the years, and have incorporated much of it into my research."
He says, "I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you."
Tom welcomes a new guest Chris Rutherglen. Chris has a Ph.D. and is a Semiconductor Engineer and has an interesting approach to cycle analysis of the gold price. In 2003 he became interested right out of university in metals. This was around the 2003 cycle low for gold. This led him to value investing. After graduate school, he obtained his CFA Levels.
Chris explains his interesting charting approach to projecting the future price for gold by contrasting it against money supply and annual mine supply. These levels give you a reference benchmark and seem useful for judging resistance levels and timing the market cycle. Understanding the growth in the money supply is key.
He shows several charts of gold's historic price along with the percentage gains. There are two key cycles of 7.5 years and 15 years to watch. Chris notes that the biggest performance gains are likely to occur on the way to $3000+ gold. He expects a strong move upwards during 2022 and 2023 then a significant pullback which will become another great buying opportunity.
Chris details his thoughts on the dollar and where it could go during its three and fifteen-year cycles. There doesn't appear to be much strength left in the dollar and we should be in for a further decline soon. The mid-point of this decade is a likely target for gold reaching its high.
Lastly, he details his thoughts on Comex gold futures including deliveries and premiums.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - His Background3:54 - Gold Price Models7:02 - Cycle Levels for Gold10:13 - Cycle Levels & M2/CPI13:00 - Current Cycle Position16:55 - Model Price Levels19:23 - 7.5 Year Cycle-Low 200820:07 - The 70s/80s+ Gold Cycles22:01 - Present Advancing Phase24:13 - Gold's Two Cycles27:15 - Path to $300031:22 - US Dollar Cycles35:49 - Gold & USD38:47 - All Sector Debt/M243:25 - Gold's Path to 7K44:46 - 45-Year Cycle45:33 - 1970s Comparison50:00 - Gold to Fed Funds Rate53:37 - Comex Gold Futures57:05 - Comex Deliveries1:01:09 - Max Pain Threshold1:06:10 - Concluding Thoughts
Talking Points From This Episode
Charting and projecting gold future performance.Golds cyclical patterns of 7 and 15 years.Comparing the 70s move to today.Analyzing Comex gold futures and deliveries.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CRutherglen
Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He first began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvine.
Tom welcomes back The Market Weather Forecaster Kevin Wadsworth from NorthStarBadCharts.com to bring you the technical picture for the markets.
Kevin discusses the 100-year chart of the US Producer Price Index. This index is near historic lows in a long-term channel. The trend now appears to be higher. These periods of high PPI are usually tumultuous in terms of political and economic stability. We're likely entering a decade-long period where things will become uncomfortable. The PPI was already testing support lines before Covid occurred.
Inflation in the United States has a clear resistance line on the 100-year chart. However, the metrics for measuring inflation have changed dramatically in the last thirty years. So it's important to note that these inflation numbers are manipulated. He expects a correction near 11% levels on the CPI. He doesn't believe that inflation will be transitory but there could be a pullback before a further advance.
The chart for the Fed Funds Rate indicates something historic is occurring. We haven't broken through the bottom trend line since the 70s. In the past, we've seen gold move much higher around low rates. Don't focus on the day-to-day price of gold but realize the long-term trend is on your side. We're in the early stages for commodities that could be life-changing.
Kevin brings us another dome-ed chart showing how commodities in general have been performing. We're now trending sideways while consolidating. We're awaiting a further rally in commodities. Commodities reveal that inflation is occurring broadly.
The parabolic rise in U.K. natural gas and electricity prices resemble alt-coins. They've moved thousands of percent and numerous providers are going out of business because they are unable to charge full price. Kevin's costs for energy have more than doubled. There is a lot of energy politics occurring around green energy and Russia at the moment.
The Euro has broken out against the dollar and the chart indicates it's highly likely to breakout further to the upside. He theorizes what may be behind this move.
The dollar is in a bearish rising wedge and currently challenging the top of the dome. He notes there are three times in recent years where gold and the dollar have risen at the same time. The dollar index needs to be evaluated along with inflation. Gold remains the ultimate barometer for inflation.
Kevin discusses the eight-year cycle for gold. The next low in the cycle is expected in 2024. He believes there will another rally in gold before 2024. These cycles could be tied to the political cycles of the United States. Many markets including bitcoin show similar four-year cycles.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:41 - PPI History & Trends9:10 - Visualizing US PPI13:12 - U.S. Inflation17:19 - Gold Yard Stick18:26 - Fed Funds Rate23:29 - Commodity Index29:25 - U.K. Energy37:06 - Euro / Dollar Chart40:42 - Dollar Index46:20 - Gold Chart49:48 - Gold Cycles53:27 - Bitcoin Cycles55:42 - Evaluating Conditions57:28 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
PPI Index, CPI, and more inflation.Fed Fund Rates and outlook for gold.Thoughts on Commodities in general and the next rally.Outlook for the Euro, Dollar, and Bitcoin
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthstarchartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comArticles: https://goldtadise.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts
Kevin Wadsworth has a background in meteorology, having spent over 25 years in military and civilian weather forecasting. Over the years, his career has involved everything from briefing pilots to producing commercial advice to utility companies and providing TV and radio broadcasts. His current role is as a Civil Contingency Advisor consists of linking with the emergency response community. He gives advance notice of life-threatening weather events and advice during events influenced by the weather, such as wildfires and industrial accidents.
Tom welcomes back Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults. Bob discusses the 2021 demand picture for gold and silver and how the squeeze early in the year took the market by storm. Before covid, the industry was fairly calm but afterward, logistics became far more complicated. We're seeing an inflationary melt-up but the prices of metals remain stagnant.
The metal consumer has been in a buyer beware position for the last year. Products were marked up in many cases and investors overpaid for metals. When prices finally do move higher we will see some secondary supply come back into the market. That supply will hamper premiums and will impact prices.
Silver tends to always catch someone off guard and once we get past thirty prices could move fairly quickly. The typical western investor tends to buy when prices are heading upwards.
In the last couple of weeks, we've seen a small price increase in the thousand-ounce bar market. Some of which could just be logistics issues due to holidays. Many of the sovereign coin markets including European mints have had problems sourcing supply and prices are moving higher.
Bob discusses the benefits and pitfalls of pooled metal programs. The concerns are around unallocated programs where you may not be able to take delivery. Many of these programs are likely fractional reserve metal pools and they are allowed to settle in cash. These types of programs work until they don't and then they will probably change their rules.
Gold could do well during a Fed rate hike. Sometimes gold will move up with the tightening and that could be due to a lack of balance sheet expansion. The Fed has a short time window in which they can pull back rates. Any number of events could bring a rapid delay or even end the taper. Markets have enough liquidity for now but that could change fairly quickly and bring pressure on the general market.
When markets get rough people will flood into physical assets like gold and silver and then metals will have their day in the sun.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Year in Review3:00 - Premiums & Supply7:43 - Price Resistance11:02 - Bar Market & Mints18:19 - Pool Programs24:41 - Hypothecation & Shares30:20 - Powell & The Taper40:32 - Inflation & Q.E.44:07 - Paper Leverage & Demand47:10 - Hyperinflation & Turkey49:14 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Performance of physical metal markets in 2021.Expectations for silver and how price moves might surprise.Risks and benefits of pooled metal programs.Thoughts on gold during the next Fed taper and rate hikes.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/Presentation: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/webinars
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Tom welcomes back Stefan Gleason. Stefan is president of Money Metals Exchange and Director of the Sound Money Defense League.
They rank the U.S. States based on their sound money policies. The biggest factor is sales or income taxes on gold and silver. They have recently got two new exemptions passed in Ohio and Arkansas. They have additional legislation that they hope will be passed next year.
Some states like Arizona place heavy burdens on the retail dealer and the customer. They require a lot of information on sellers to solve crimes. Much of it is a waste of time as coins are only occasionally trackable. In some cases, they are required to photograph items and submit them to the government.
There is only one state Texas with a state-chartered depository system. Tennessee is evaluating the idea of doing something similar to Texas. However, they still have sales taxes on bullion and will need to repeal that tax first.
At the Federal IRS level, there are cases around self-directed IRAs and bullion. The government doesn't like the idea of having gold stored at home outside of an IRA. Some investors are now being audited and having to pay penalties.
Biden is hiring a lot of new auditors for the IRS and that may increase the risk of audits. Stefan gives some specific recommendations regarding deductions.
The U.S. Mint is supposed to keep up with public demand but this year their performance has been quite lackluster. Mints like the Sunshine Mint have been unable to keep up with the demand for blanks. All of this combined has caused premiums to rise on government coins. He expects further tightness in the markets over the next month or so.
Stefan views gold and silver as money and also believes in investing in royalty companies. Firstly, everyone should hold physical gold and silver. Miners come with an excessive number of risks where royalty companies don't share that level of risk.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Intro0:41 - Sound Money Defense4:05 - Bad Policy States7:58 - Chartered Depositories14:42 - Self-Directed IRA Risks19:56 - IRS Risks & Taxes24:36 - Treasury Gold & IMF27:31 - Money Metals30:43 - Gold Demand & Premiums34:13 - Gold Investment Vehicles37:24 - Royalty Plays & Risks38:53 - Concluding Thoughts42:57 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Promoting sound money at the state level.State gold depository systems.IRS Tax regulations and self-directed IRAs.Gold demand and speculative Royalty Plays
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MoneyMetalsWebsite: https://moneymetals.comWebsite: https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/
Articles:Tennessee: https://www.soundmoneydefense.org/gold-silver-laws-tennesseeBiden IRS: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2021/12/07/bidens-irs-is-mining-for-gold-002421State Rankings: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2021/11/29/new-state-rankings-dramatic-differences-gold-silver-002416Treasury: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2021/12/02/us-treasury-refuses-to-answer-questions-about-disposition-of-its-own-gold-002418
Stefan Gleason is President of Money Metals Exchange, a national precious metals investment company and news service with over 500,000 readers and 250,000 customers. He launched the company while president of a national newsletter publishing company dedicated to helping subscribers protect their freedoms, assets, and privacy.
Gleason founded Money Metals Exchange in 2010 in response to the abusive practices of national advertisers of "rare" coins. These companies often mark up their coins to 50%, 100%, or even higher than their actual melt value. Money Metals believes the average investor should only purchase precious metals at or near their true melt value. The rare coin market is only suitable for highly experienced collectors with money to blow.
Gleason also leads marketing, publishing, and real estate holding companies and legislative projects involving sound money and the precious metals industry. Previously,
Tom welcomes Jaime Carrasco of Canaccord Genuity back to the show.
Jaime discusses managing pensions for Microsoft Canada and learning a lot about individuals investing strategies. Attitudes change during major stock moves and people wish they hadn't paid off debt and instead invested.
Gold is not going to stay down much longer due to inflationary pressures. All markets have been manipulated though money from the financial sector. Metals are not able to signal the inflationary alarm.
The explorers are being hit hard right now but that's where the value is along with producers. This is an excellent entry point. At some point we will see a massive rise in precious metals just to keep up with the other commodities.
He explains how they reduced their crypto positions during 2020. They reallocated into producers and he is awaiting the next move in crypto. The true value right now is in the gold and silver producers.
The financial titantic is sinking and we've see Fed members quit so they can get out of the markets. Something big is coming and it's not just up to the United States. China is the one that is going to be pulling the strings.
The manipulation of markets has pushed up stock markets while keeping other markets down. The longer the physical imbalance the bigger the eventual adjustment.
China has obtained a lot of gold and much of it is with Chinese citizens. They have stated they will be creating a new Yuan which will be backed by something tangible. Russia has also bought a lot of gold because they also understand the play.
The demand for copper from China continues to be huge and therefore prices will remain high.
We're using 'new math' to calculate the CPI if you calculate it like in the 80s were around 15%. There are only so many lifeboats for investors to get into and after that it's over.
Russia is the only country with no internal debt and this is a result of exporting energy. They are just a massive producer of food and energy. They are sort of the bouncer for China. The activity in Ukraine is largely noise and Russia has little interest in that region. The big play is Nordstream 2. Putin is the chessmaster of geopolitics.
Once the ship sinks we will rebuild the system without the old players and that is where blockchain will help us rebuild. The internet is going to allow us to decentralize away from these centralized systems.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:10 - Imbalances & Leverage7:30 - Gold & Silver11:03 - Crypto Weightings13:13 - China & Real Estate14:40 - Inflation Politics16:10 - US Dollar Outlook18:56 - This Time It's Different20:57 - China PPI & Defaults23:57 - Russia & Gold Purchases26:36 - Central Banks & Gold30:36 - Blockchains Role34:23 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
People's attitudes in frenzied markets.Balancing your crypto portfolio into juniors.Outlook for the US Dollar and the politics of inflation.Russia, China, and Central Bank gold holdings.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/IJCarrascoLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: Canaccord Genuity https://www.canaccordgenuity.com/
Jaime Carrasco is portfolio manager at Canaccord Genuity Inc. in Toronto. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.
Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.
Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht,
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show.
Tavi discusses how gold prices are struggling after hitting new highs in 2020. Gold's recent history appears to be one of consolidation. The year-over-year CPI is demonstrating that gold is keeping up with inflation and will eventually break out. Gold did front-run the inflation expectations but we should soon see a higher low. This seems to be the beginning of an inflationary decade and policymakers appear clueless regarding the impact of stimulus programs.
The crypto markets are a parallel world being built of libertarian ideals. He believes central banks and governments are going to have to return to some sort of anchor. Gold will likely fit that role. Cryptos are here to stay but their impact on the economic system remains uncertain. We're going to see an evolution and it's important to separate the technical benefits from the rampant speculation. Eventually, the metals and commodities will lead the market. There are signs of a looming shift in the broader markets.
Natural resource projects are not getting the attention they deserve and universities are not teaching students geology. There has been a misallocation of capital when compared with the tech sector. Oil is also a sector that is lacking in capital spending.
The United States and China are the world drivers of growth. China is currently having several problems around commodities due to rising prices. China has massive levels of debt not unlike other developed countries.
Tavi expects further food inflation which is not reflected in the CPI. Food prices are concerning to lower classes and will influence policymakers along with their fiscal policies. Most market participants today have not lived through inflationary periods.
Energy companies are having a hard time being productive in the current global economy and economic policies. However, they are inexpensive and energy demand will continue. He remains bullish on oil and natural gas.
Tavi discusses the outlook for bonds and yields. Bonds can be a good hedge and people should look at the 1970s where ten-year yields rose along with gold.
Lastly, Tavi discusses what they look for in the juniors along with some of the risks.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Precious Metal Signs4:00 - Gold Versus CPI7:54 - Cryptos & Markets11:55 - Under Owned Investments13:44 - Oil & Rig Counts14:52 - Institutions & Inflation17:52 - Evergrande Contagion?21:24 - Inflation Expectations23:35 - Commodity Inflation & Ag.25:08 - Macro Energy Thesis28:09 - Powell, Taper, & Bonds34:36 - Hedging Miners38:58 - Deep Value Criteria42:29 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TaviCostaTwitter: https://twitter.com/Crescat_CapitalWebsite https://crescat.netInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/tavicostamacro/
Talking Points From This Episode:
Thoughts on the gold markets and their recent history.Inflation and golds performance in this environment.Crypto speculation and an eventual speculative shift back to gold.Commodities and impact on China
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is featured often in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
Tom welcomes macro money manager, bond king, and financial planner Steven Van Metre back to the show. Steven answers several listener questions later on in the show.
Steven discusses his latest video on why Q.E. does not mean money creation. The Fed is just swapping assets and forcing money into the commercial banking system. Two main banks are absorbing most of the stimulus money. Most money is stored in the banking system and is not moving. They want to suppress and lower interest rates while pushing the dollar higher. The bond market doesn't work the way most people think. Investors need to understand this system because it will explain most things.
The pandemic created many supply issues and caused a lot of money to flow back to the United States. This is now impacting foreign countries which are dollar starved.
Steven is concerned that most investors are in the wrong asset classes and don't understand how bonds work. We're going to see interest rates move lower and the economy will likely head down.
Q.E. traps dollars thus causing a shortage which drives the price for dollars higher on a global level. By trapping money in the commercial banking sector it reduces monetary velocity. They want to get the global economy moving again and therefore they want to export as many dollars as possible.
Consumers are now returning to their normal needs for money by borrowing from credit cards. He explains the effects of the dollar rising and how this could play out like the 2007 crisis. A rising dollar indicates tightening and that means prices for everything else will move lower.
Steven discusses the actions the Fed will take when equities sell-off. In the past they would do more Q.E. but this time they may have a hard time deciding what to do. The Fed is being blamed for inflation and they aren't responsible. The Fed may have a hard time doing Q.E. next time around for political reasons and he believes the Fed put is now completely out of the question.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - His Recent Video4:54 - Two Main Banks8:10 - Bank Reserves10:10 - Q.E. Suppresses Rates11:35 - Presentation15:04 - Money Markets16:55 - Q.E. Traps Dollars22:55 - Dollar Ceiling?24:50 - Inflation & Base Money33:39 - Listener Questions40:09 - Bond Vigilantes47:26 - Fed, Q.E. & Housing50:28 - Gold, Dollar & Markets56:13 - Fed Tools & Equities1:00:10 - Gov't Spending & Debt1:04:20 - Debt Monetization1:06:02 - Cause of M2 Growth1:09:10 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode:
His contrarian macro thesis.Fed actions, rates, and inflation.Coming liquidity crunch and opportunity.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.stevenvanmetre.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetreStevenYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRIQM-CUkxVazVPv980YZsw
Steven Van Metre is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and an Investment Advisory Representative with the registered firm Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. He is also a financial planner and portfolio manager of President of Steven Van Metre Financial, specializing in retirement income strategies and the direct management of client assets.
Steven designed a planning process to help clients understand, prepare, and become active participants in creating their retirement plan. His method helps people understand what their retirement will look like, and what they need to do to make their retirement goals come true. Over the past 15 years, Steven has coached many people through to an entirely successful retirement.
Steven creates and actively manages several risked based asset allocation portfolios. He uses a strategic asset allocation philosophy with a tactical focus to pick funds weighted towards the economy's expected growth sectors. These portfolios are regularly rebalanced to ensure optimal sector position. Investors in these portfolios can expect long term returns consistent with their risk tolerance.
Steven is sought by peers for advice and conducts webinars to ...
Tom welcomes back experienced investment professional David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors.
Talking Points From This Episode
Expecting a melt-up in the markets.Types of market manipulation.Predictions for the oil markets.Thoughts on the coming global bust.Fed policies and Chairman Powell.We are living outside our means.Concerns around bonds and utilities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Market Thoughts2:36 - Gold Expectations4:45 - Manipulation/Spoofing5:49 - Gold, Inflation & Rates9:55 - PPI & Inflation Outlook16:53 - Oil & Inflation19:09 - Copper & Supercycle22:46 - Dollar & Global Demand28:07 - Currencies & Gold Backing31:16 - Melt-Up Scenario34:56 - Equities, Profits & Banks38:01 - Global Bust Timeframes39:50 - Noise & Indicators45:51 - Psychology & Momentum46:36 - Fed Chair Powell53:07 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest LinksEmail: Dhunter31@gmail.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian
David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 22 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.
Tom welcomes back Keith Neumeyer, President & CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp. Keith explains why the world needs enormous amounts of metals for electrification and carbon objectives. He says, "We will never be fully off oil and gas but we can reduce it given time." He is a fan of hydrogen and nuclear solutions for energy.
The mining industry continues to be held back and demonized. Mining methods are gradually improving. It takes time however to implement and build solutions in a capital-starved market. The creation of new mines takes years and sometimes decades. Tech companies are too focused on the short-term and don't understand the complexity of resource development. The top five high tech companies have a market cap of five trillion. While the top fifty mining companies are worth a fraction of that industry.
There are no real substitutes for silver. Companies like Dupont have tried with limited success. By 2022 the world will need 140 million ounces of silver just for solar panels. This is a 30-40 percent YOY increase.
Keith discusses silver recycling and why supplies of similar seem limited. It will require considerably higher prices to recover silver and bring these metals to refiners and recyclers. The recycling business is quite difficult and metals are hard to recover from e-waste.
He is concerned about the pricing structures around metal and believes the Comex needs to go away. First Majestic's approach is to sell bars directly to industry and thus often bypass the futures market.
The mining sector has been undereducated for some time and Latin America is now filling in the gap for talent in engineering and mining.
The mining sector is having a harder time as the population moves to greener and increasingly socialist mindsets. The mining sector will have to be more aggressive if humanity is going to achieve its objectives.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Germany Presentation2:12 - Tech Sector & Mining5:07 - A.I. & Corporations6:52 - Silver Substitutes10:27 - Silver Recycling13:10 - Metal Pricing Concerns14:47 - Futures Replacements16:33 - First Majestic Bars20:44 - Withholding Silver22:50 - Industry & Education25:02 - Mainstream Momentum26:34 - Exploration & Price29:37 - Institutions & Gold32:25 - Risk & Diversification34:57 - Finding Opportunities36:35 - Chile & Mexico37:33 - Jerrit Canyon Plans40:07 - Nevada Plays41:58 - Company Considerations43:58 - Exiting Positions47:28 - Layering Positions48:35 - Concluding Thoughts49:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The coming demand picture for metals due to electrification and green energy.Recycling and the limited alternatives to silver.Types of silver bars and selling directly to industry.Managing jurisdictional risks and future projects.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/keith_neumeyerTwitter: https://twitter.com/fmsilvercorpWebsite: https://www.firstmajestic.com/
Keith Neumeyer is President & CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp. Mr. Neumeyer has worked in the investment community since 1984. He began his career at some Canadian national brokerage firms. Mr. Neumeyer moved on to work with several publically traded companies in the resource and high technology sectors. Mr. Neumeyer has been the President and Chief Executive Officer of First Silver Reserve Inc. since June 19, 2006. His roles have included senior management positions and directorships responsible for finance, business development, strategic planning, and corporate restructuring.
Mr. Neumeyer was the original and founding President of First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (T-FM) and First Majestic Silver in 2002 and First Mining Finance in 2015. He has also listed several companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange and has extensive experience dealing with the financial, regulatory, legal, and accounting issues relevant to the investment community. Keith also won the E&Y Entrepreneur of the Year Award in 2011 for the Metals & Mining category.
Tom welcomes Patrick Karim back to the show for a mostly chart-less chat.
Patrick and Tom discuss the manipulation of metals and the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's important to keep an open mind even when your stock moves up your thesis may still be wrong. It's important to learn from those with experience to avoid giving back all your profits.
Patrick discusses charting and usage of technical analysis to determine when a bear market could occur. Ratio charts are excellent for determining overall market direction. Most equities are near extremes and carry a lot of potential downside risk. If you watch the inflation-adjusted dollar chart it may help you to determine where gold is heading.
A lot of capital is headed for sexier markets but eventually, there will be a return to safe-haven assets like gold. Mining shares have been one of the worst investments since 1996 but therein lays the opportunity.
As investors, we should be looking for opportunities and not focus solely on our favorite narrative. The weight of evidence is in gold's favor but we should always consider other investments. There is a lot of liquidity in the markets and it seems important to capture some of it for yourself. If you focus on a particular asset you will miss out on other opportunities.
Patrick discusses techniques for exiting a position based on height above the one-year moving average. Be careful of over-thinking past performance since it may not continue. Consider scaling out of positions once you've seen good profits and when the chart is looking overstretched.
The macro tidal waves that are driving market cycles create long-term meaningful moves. Examining ten-year trading patterns will give you the perspective of where you are in the macro picture. Always be mindful of your emotional state.
Patrick believes gold is near where it should be but silver is still lagging. A spike high on a silver chart may not be that meaningful. Silver has never closed above $31 on a yearly chart. Silver is now near its fifty-year high and we can expect a parabolic rise soon.
Lastly, they discuss the frustration levels with gold and the steadily increasing risks in the crypto space.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:59 - Manipulation3:12 - Dunning Kruger Effect5:34 - T.A. & Bear Markets9:54 - Chauffeur Knowledge12:30 - Entry Points & Risk15:15 Dollar & Inflation18:00 - Capital Flows19:48 - Finding Opportunity25:14 - Profit-Taking29:32 - Market Cycles33:04 - Bottom Picking34:57 - Targets & Timeframes38:12 - Volume & Resistance40:15 - Charts & Probabilities42:37 - Silver Rocketships45:00 - Adjusting for Inflation47:21 - Art of Thinking Clearly50:27 - Gold Frustrations51:10 - Bitcoin Thoughts53:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The Dunning Kruger Effect and risk of investor over-confidence.Evaluating market cycles and overall risks.Finding opportunities and timing long-term market cycles.Expectations for silver and bitcoin.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/patrickkarim
Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically.
His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
Tom welcomes Anthony Milewski, Chairman of Nickel 28 and founder of Carbon Advisors.
Anthony discusses the huge growth in the carbon credit markets and how credits have risen in price massively. He explains the differences between the regulated and voluntary markets. Carbon credit markets are designed to encourage companies to improve their methods and techniques.
Carbon credits can act as offsets that are traded and eventually extinguished. Credits are created through reforestation, wildlife sanctuaries, and methods of sequestration. These plans are submitted, approved, and then re-evaluated on an annual basis.
Long-term there will be pressures put on companies that will encourage additional participants. He believes these markets will be very tight in the coming years. Some of these credits have been tokenized and used with blockchain technology. This seems to be bringing even more demand to the market.
Future mining operations will take into account the sequestration of carbon and will try to create less. Every person and company has a carbon footprint and we want to reduce the amount of resources that we all use.
Lastly, Anthony discusses the coming demand picture for nickel and cobalt. The lack of new mines remains a concern even though prices are reasonable. There seems to be a general lack of interest in mines probably due to the timeframe required and the risks. Where the nickel will come from is concerning and as a result, we're setting the stage for a mega resource bull market. Mining is just not that interesting in a world of fairly easy liquid returns.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Carbon Credit Growth5:20 - Behaviour Incentives7:10 - Emitters & Credits12:30 - Carbon Capture14:00 - Token Carbon Credits17:40 - NFT Madness?21:50 - China Interest23:30 - Offsets & Production28:00 - Future Nickel Demand32:00 - Cobalt & Batteries36:40 - Indonesia Exports37:30 - Direct Investment?39:30 - Substitution40:30 - Risks Globally41:40 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Carbon Credit growth explosion in the last 12 months.Incentivising behavior and how carbon credit markets function.Interest from China and demand for metals in electric vehicles & batteries.The lack of mines and the lackluster interest by investors.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.nickel28.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/a_milewski
Anthony Milewski is an entrepreneur and financier. He has spent his career in various aspects of the mining industry, including as a company director, advisor, founder, and investor. In particular, he has been active in commodities that further the decarbonization of society. Mr. Milewski has managed and financed numerous mining investments at various stages of development, including exploration, development, production, and turnaround situations, and across a broad range of commodities. He also serves as a director of both public and private companies.
Mr. Milewski currently serves as the Chairman of Conic Metals. Previously he served as the Chairman and CEO of Cobalt 27, a Managing Director of the investment team at Pala Investments, and before that at Firebird Management LLC. He has lived and worked in Africa and Russia, including a year as a Fulbright scholar, and has spent considerable time in Central Asia.
Anthony holds a B.A. in Russian history from Brigham Young University, an M.A. in Russian and Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington, and a J.D. from the University of Washington. He holds an LLM from the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Tom welcomes back Jeff Clark of GoldSilver.com to the show.
Jeff discusses his recent article on silver in which he compares silver to other asset classes' performance since 1980. Silver and sugar are the only ones that remain below their 1980 peak. Everything else today is overvalued and this will change when the mainstream returns to this market. He says, "Focus on what you can control."
Jeff explains why the Hunt Brothers had a minimal effect on the silver market in the 80s. This was a time when everything was responding to monetary events as every asset was rising in price.
Gold and silver are money because they hold their value for centuries. In contrast, just consider the loss of purchasing power of the dollar since the year 2000.
Jeff estimates that the 1980 silver price adjusted for inflation should be in the $250 range. History shows that silver is often stagnant for two to three year periods but then the price rapidly spikes higher. We don't know precisely when but another spike is inevitable.
Jeff prefers to have physical possession of metals since the possibility of a massive economic catastrophe will persist. It's best to avoid counterparty risks. Mining stocks are more of a leverage play on metals but one should be aware of the risks. Miners remain underappreciated and overlooked due to the prices of underlying metals. This is one area where there remains an excellent opportunity for investors.
Most metal investors were skeptical of the transitory inflation narrative. Now the Fed has abandoned that theory and is anticipating more persistent inflation. There is also evidence that we could move into a deflationary or stagflationary environment for a time. When the next crisis hits gold will fulfill its primary function of preserving wealth.
Jeff explains the importance of visiting mining sites and speaking directly with management. This can be very constructive for determining the quality of potential investments.
Lastly, he provides some tips for evaluating drill results.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Article on Silver4:30 - Manipulation Types6:40 - 80s Silver High9:40 - Considering the Metals11:40 - Harry Dent and Gold13:45 - Inflation Adj. Silver (EDITS)15:00 - Past Silver Spikes17:00 - Physical, ETFs, or Miners?19:30 - Underappreciated Miners21:00 - Market Drivers & Inflation23:00 - Analyzing Miners25:00 - Visiting Mining Sites27:00 - Geology & Experts30:00 - Management Experience33:00 - Jurisdiction Risk35:00 - Drill Result Resources37:00 - Keeping Perspective39:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
Comparing asset inflation over forty years with silver.Gold and silver's historical role as money.Evaluating companies, management, and drill results.
Guest Links:Website: https://goldsilver.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/TheGoldAdvisorSteve's Site: https://SilverChartistAdvisor.com
Jeff Clark is Senior Precious Metals Analyst at GoldSilver.com. He is an accomplished analyst, author, speaker, and globally recognized authority on precious metals. The son of an award-winning gold panner with family-owned mining claims in California, Arizona, and Nevada, Jeff, has deep roots in the industry. An active investor with a love of writing, Jeff eventually became a mining industry analyst, including ten years as senior editor for the world-renowned publication BIG GOLD. Jeff has been a regular conference speaker, including at Cambridge House and Sprott Resources events, the Silver Summit, and many others. He currently serves on the board at Strategic Wealth Preservation, a bullion storage facility in Grand Cayman, and provides analysis and market commentary for GoldSilver.com. Jeff's previous positions include Senior Precious Metals Analyst for Hard Assets Alliance and was a Senior Editor for Casey Research.
Tom welcomes a new guest Richard Duncan to the show. Richard is a macroeconomist and the author of three books on the global economic crisis.
Richard discusses how (total credit debt) credit growth now drives the economy. Currently, U.S. debts have surpassed 85 trillion. Whenever credit growth slows below two percent annually the U.S. enters a recession. This has happened nine times since 1950.
The economy has changed fundamentally since the 19th century. Gold has not been money for fifty years. The big change came in 1968 when the Fed was allowed to create money without having a reserve. When the gold window closed in 1971 so ended the corrective mechanism to balance the trade imbalances between countries.
In the 80s the U.S. discovered they could run trade deficits without much consequence. This did result in the dollar being devalued but during the 90s we saw the economies of developing countries improve massively. The U.S. was able to rely on cheap foreign labor and manufacturing to produce low-cost goods. Until recently money printing had little impact on inflation growth.
Month on month change for inflation is breaking out higher. There are many reasons for higher prices over the past couple of years and inflation is not certain. For now, large stimulus packages are not expected. Without stimulus, we would likely have had a major recession. Chairman Powell has recently stated plans to accelerate tapering and raise interest rates. Credit growth is expected to slow rapidly and without more debt, the economy could contract. Our system is no longer that of capitalism but 'creditism'.
The Fed is hostage to the S&P and is covering for any market corrections. The economy is essentially on life support. The Fed can't raise interest rates far and it seems less likely to do so in light of the new covid variant.
Wealth is becoming very stretched compared to income. Income is not keeping up and overall downward pressure remains on wages. People need income to pay their interest on the money they borrow. Income is no longer keeping up with assets like home prices.
Richard believes the Fed can keep this game going for a long time perhaps decades. He believes there is a risk of softer gold prices in the future.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Credit & Growth2:34 - Economic Standards13:01 - Inflation & Stimulus17:41 - Recession & Credit-ism19:27 - Credit Sector Borrowing25:16 - Lending Standards29:02 - Role of Interest Rates30:10 - Wealth to Income Ratio37:43 - Endgame?44:12 - Dollar Outlook & Q.E.45:11 - Softer Gold Price?46:30 - Best Assets to Own?48:08 - Book Recommendations51:33 - His Newsletter Offer
Talking Points From This Week's Episode
How credit now drives our current 'creditism' economic system.The consequences of a credit system and why trade imbalances no longer matter.Inflation and recession risks due to insufficient borrowing next year.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PaperMoneyEconNewsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.com/product/macro-watch/For a 50% discount, when prompted, use the coupon code: Value
Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis, including the international bestseller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, which forecast the global economic crisis of 2008 with extraordinary accuracy.
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.
He is now the publisher of the video-newsletter Macro Watch which can be found on his website.