JC Parets: Recent Episodes
JC Parets
Today we sit down with my old pal Larry McDonald.
When it comes to the bond market, Larry is the guy I want to talk to. And with Bonds getting off to their worst start to a year, maybe ever, what better time than the present to dive into the fixed income markets?
While I had him, we also discussed the equities markets, commodities, metals and Crypto.
This was a fun one.
Make sure to give Larry a follow on Twitter @convertbond
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Today we sit down and chat with Professional Trader Kimmy Sokoloff.
I’m lucky to have known Kimmy for well over a decade, and we hit it off from the start.
Kimmy went through the CMT program in the 90s. And funny enough, volunteered later on with the CMT Association to grade Level 3 exams, which are mostly essays. We joke that she most likely graded mine in 2007-2008.
While I like to look out weeks and months for my timeframes, Kimmy focuses specifically on the hours and days. A 2 week trade for her is “Long-term”.
We’re both trained in similar ways, as CMT Charter holders. But our experiences are different.
Kimmy spent most of her career in Institutional Sales and Trading. She spent decades on the phones all day with huge funds.
So when Kimmy has something to say, we want to listen. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did.
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On today's episode I sit down with Financial Advisor Stephen Weitzel. Stephen and I have known each other for many years. We're both big fans of Technical Analysis, good food and college football. So this was a lot of fun!
Stephen walks us through his journey of first becoming a Financial Advisor, how helpful Technical Analysis has been for his practice, and the journey towards $1 Billion in assets.
I've had a front row seat to Stephen's growth, both as a business owner and as a Technician. It's been really cool to see and I'm going to keep rooting for him and his team.
I always like to get different perspectives on the podcast, and I think this conversation is a great compliment to a lot of the other episodes we've done over the years.
Make sure to follow Stephen Weitzel on Twitter @stephenweitzel and check out Stephen's firm Reveille Wealth Management https://www.raymondjames.com/reveille
If you enjoyed this, here's where else you can hang out with us:
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Have any comments or questions? Give us a call: (323) 421-7991
Big day today! I got Josh Brown to come on the podcast and talk about all things Technical Analysis and Financial Markets. Josh is probably friends with more Technicians across the country than almost anyone else. He respects what we do, and even works in some trend following systems at his own firm. We discuss all of it!
In this episode we talk about Sector Weightings in Markets, how RIAs can bring Crypto to the portfolios of their clients and why Gold peaked 40 years ago when adjusted for inflation.
We don't always agree on things, but that's what makes this fun.
Josh and I battle it out in this one. Give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Also make sure to Subscribe to Josh's Youtube Channel: The Compound RWM
Have any comments or questions? Give us a call: (323) 421-7991 or email us: info@allstarcharts.com
It's always fun having Paul Ciana on the podcast. You guys familiar with the show have already heard some our conversations over the years. They're always insightful and he always gets me thinking.
While here at Allstarcharts.com we approach the world through the lens of an equities investor, and use other asset classes as a supplement, Paul does the exact opposite. His days both begin and end with the study of Fixed Income markets, Commodities and Currencies. Paul is the Chief Global FICC Technical Strategist at Bank of America.
In this episode we dive right into it starting with the US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and the most important currency crosses for Stock Market investors to focus on.
We covered a lot in a very short period. Interested in where rates are going? We cover it. Lumber? Yup! Agriculture? Definitely. Precious metals? How could we not?
You won't want to miss this one!
Enjoy.
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In this podcast episode I sit down with one of my favorite technicians of all-time - John Roque. This is one of those people who influenced my thinking very early on. The combination of his simplicity along with sports analogies to describe market behavior made me a huge fan of his right away. This was about 15 years ago.
Since then, you'll here me throw out John Roqueisms all the time. I learned a lot from his way of thinking.
In this conversation we talk about the stock market, Gold, Bitcoin and Tech stocks. John also shares some fun stories about those who inspired him throughout his career and some of the things he’s learned more recently.
This was a lot of fun and a real treat for me.
On this episode of Pardon The Price Action, we talk about whether these are all retests or failed breakouts.
That's the big question.
With Oil testing 76, Financials and Industrials retesting former highs, small-caps and even Bitcoin near critical levels, we want to know if this is just a pause, or the beginning of the end.
All this and so much more on the latest episode Pardon the Price Action!
Check out the YouTube Video to access all of the charts we discussed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2toXwoW0QnE
As we make our way through the earlier stages of the most bullish time of the year, who better to talk to than Jeff Hirsch, Author of the annual Stock Trader's Almanac.
When it comes to Technical Analysis, what we're doing is analyzing the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants. Seasonality falls under that umbrella and Jeff Hirsch is the ultimate authority on the subject. He's had a front row seat his entire life to how markets trend during different times of the year.
In this episode, we talk about "The Best 6 months", the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Commodities Seasonality, and we even get to learn a little more about his father Yale Hirsch, the originator of the Almanac back in the 1960s.
Jeff Hirsch and I have known each other for many years and have hung out in Vegas, New York, San Francisco and hopefully many more fun cities to come in the future. So this was a blast!
I hope you enjoy this as much as I did.
Make sure to follow Jeff on Twitter @AlmanacTrader
On this episode of the podcast, Steve Strazza and I sit down with Brian G, who many of you will recognize as @AlphaCharts on Twitter.
I've been following Brian for many years and love a lot of the work he puts out. It was really fun hearing his story about how he became a technician.
It isn't something that happens overnight, that's for sure. It's a process.
First we get into the evolution of become a Technical Analyst, and then we dive into what we're doing about it in the current environment.
Hope you enjoy!
On this episode of the podcast, I sit down with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research.
I've been a big fan of Ed's work for a long time, not to mention Ned Davis is one of my personal heroes.
The work they do over there has been inspiring to me throughout my entire career. So as you can imagine, it was so fun and such a pleasure to chat with Ed.
We talk about Market Breadth, Sector Trends, Momentum and Seasonality.
If you have any exposure whatsoever in the market, or even thinking about putting on exposure, then this is the episode for you!
Enjoy!
You guys know that I use Fibonacci levels to help us identify targets and manage risk.
And you've all seen it work, with your own eyes, for many years. I have too, of course, as one of the gang here calculating these levels every day.
But I've never quite understood WHY it works.
How come these numbers keep showing up all over Nature. Why do the prices of stocks and other assets keep respecting these levels?
When I get asked, I don't have an answer.
But if there's anyone I'm going to ask, it's gonna be Bart.
So that's what I did. And figured why not share this with all of you?
This was a lot of fun!
On this week's episode of the podcast, I sit down with David Keller to talk about all things behavioral finance. David is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the subject, so I reached out to him and said, "Dave, come on the pod and let's talk about humans".
He happily agreed and so we hit the ground running talking about Anchoring Bias, Loss Aversion, Risk Management, Supply and Demand Dynamics and Market Sentiment.
This wasn't just an academic endeavor. We also discussed current markets, price trends, momentum, breadth and Dave's favorite trade for the rest of 2021.
I think you're really going to enjoy this one. I certainly did!
In this podcast episode I sit down with Ian McMillan to talk charts and answer the question: Why Technical Analysis?
Ian makes some good points about Financial Advisors who "buy and hold", that you can often find at the golf course. He's always striving to be the opposite of that.
When it comes to the market, we dive right in to talk market internals, major trends, Gold, Energy and Bitcoin.
Ian and I have known each other for years so it's always fun to catch up and see what's on his mind. Enjoy!
This is a fun one. I got to sit down with Paul Ciana to talk about all things Fixed Income, Commodities and Currencies. Paul is now the Chief Global FICC Technical Strategist and Director of Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But in the early days, him and I used to study for our CMTs together back in 2006.
What's nice about this is that in his current position, and for 10 years at Bloomberg prior to his 5 years at BofA, he's had the opportunity to speak to many of the largest portfolio managers in the world. I want to know what he's learned from all those conversations!
Paul always gives great perspective and as you know, the macro view carries a big weighting throughout our process. So this episode really hit home.
I took advantage and just hit him with all my favorite questions and topics in the FICC world. And he just chuckled and happily answered most of them.
This was great! I hope you enjoy this as much as I did!
The DeFi Revolution is upon us, at least according to Jim Bianco. For many years, I've looked up to Jim and the work he's been doing at Bianco Research and, in fact, he's the one who first inspired me to rip through hundreds of charts during my live presentations in order to get my points across. It took me about a decade to realize it, but it was him who I got that from.
Fast forward to 2021, and the Macro Technician who I've always admired has turned into one of the leading voices of what's taking place in DeFi, or "Decentralized Finance". Who better to talk to about what's going on than Jim himself? Ethereum, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Yield Farming, Metamask Wallets, Coinbase....the whole thing.
We dive right into it and talk about how investors of all kinds can take advantage of this revolution into a decentralized world. Traders, Investors, Financial Advisors and even their clients....what does everyone do about this?
We do our best to answer those questions in this podcast episode. I personally really really enjoyed this chat. I hope you do too!
This week on the podcast I sit down with Meb Faber, Co-Founder, CEO and CIO of Cambia Investments. In addition to his "Day job", as he puts it, Meb has authored 5 investment books, a countless amount of white papers, and is also a very popular follow on Twtter @MebFaber.
This was really fun for me because Meb is an expert at a lot of things that I am just not, like what happens behind the scenes at ETFs, angel investing and academic studies. He brings up some great points about providing strategies that work, but that people also want/need.
He has some strong opinions about share buy backs instead of distributing dividends, learning through acting and participating, and how lucky him and I are that we took the CMT decades ago when it was a lot easier than it is today!
This was a lot of fun. Meb is a chill dude, but don't let him fool you, he's one of the smart guys in the room!
Enjoy!
In a market environment where Financials and Natural Resources have become leadership groups, how do we not have a conversation about Canada? Taking that one step further, we need to talk about how any investor, whether living in Canada or not, can take advantage of a potential structural swing in the trend for Canadian Equities.
David Cox is someone who I've discussed markets with for many years. We usually hook up every Spring in New York City at the annual CMT Symposium. It's only fair that I let the rest of the world eavesdrop on our chats. He's a bright guy with good perspective on all things stocks, interest rates, forex markets and even Bitcoin.
David is a Portfolio Managers at CIBC and is a true trend follower. He tells it like it is. I really enjoy that about him. I was looking forward to having this conversation, and he exceeded all expectations. David really brings it in this episode!!
I hope you enjoy.
And make sure to give him a follow on Twitter @DavidCoxWG
In the latest episode of The Money Game, Phil and I talk about the old cliché, 'Everything happens for a reason'.
It's funny because it doesn't. Not everything happens for a reason. What's the reason?
It's hard for humans to accept the element of randomness. Sure, good things can happen after a tough breakup or losing your job. Like you can meet your future wife or start a successful business, all after what seemed like a negative event in your life. But connecting the 2 dots is silly.
Now, it's perfectly natural for us as humans to want to do that, but it doesn't make it right.
We inherently want to learn, and how I see, the best ways to learn are from experiences. Some of the most important lessons I've learned came the hard way, for sure. And I can think back to those moments and I'm now thankful for them. But they certainly didn't happen specifically so I could use that information to my advantage today. They were just events that happened, that fortunately I learned from.
I think to believe that everything does happen for a reason makes you incredibly self-centered. You are a tiny spec of nothing in this massive spinning universe. To think that events all around you are happening for your benefit, or for some made up destiny of yours, seems irresponsible.
Good things happen all the time in bad scenarios. Bad things can also come as a consequence of positive events. For example, the global pandemic was horrible. Many people died, businesses were shut down and so many people have suffered, particularly mentally. BUT, in many cases, families have gotten closer together, a lot of people have gotten in better shape, with more time on their hands to exercise. Many of my friends are thriving in this environment.
That's life. Things happen. It doesn't have to be for a reason.
So what's the prescription? Phil says to just live your life. Be a good person. Enjoy yourself.
We're here. So let's make the best of it!
Come hang out with us at Allstarcharts.com Or say hi on Twitter, Instagram, Stocktwits, YouTube & Clubhouse @allstarcharts
Bitcoin is a market that we are very fond of here at Allstarcharts. You've heard me say it plenty: it's a beautiful case study for Technical Analysis.
It's not a company. There are no fundamentals.
And you guys have watched us analyze the behavior of Bitcoin and other Crypto Currencies since early 2016.
It's been pretty amazing to watch and participate in a new market like this. They were telling us we were late to the party back then. They're still saying the same thing now.
My bet is crypto is here to stay. So who better to have a conversation with than Greg King, Founder & CEO of OSPREY Funds, the newest vehicle to give investors access to this market.
This is probably one of the most fun conversations I've had in a long time. For me, it's a price behavior thing, as you're all well aware. I'm not the expert in the technology and the regulatory mechanics behind these things.
That's why I like keeping smart folks like Greg King around! I'm also a founding investor in OSPREY Funds, so I'm fully on board with their vision. After this conversation, as you'll see, I'm much more bullish crypto than I was before.
This was so awesome.
Enjoy!
Whenever I want to talk about bonds, I always know just who to call. Larry McDonald is a former bond trader at Lehman Brothers and author of the book, Colossal Failure of Common Sense. I highly encourage you to give it a read, especially if you're looking for some perspective on what really happened back in 2007-2008.
It's no coincidence that I reached out to him to come on the podcast. Larry and I had a very timely conversation in February of last year. So with the bond market recently losing 5-6 Trillion dollars in such a short period of time, who better to talk to than by favorite bond trader.
This was fun. We talked about the current move in rates and how that's impacting stocks and bond markets around the world. If you're looking for color on Credit Spreads and Yield curves, this is the episode for you.
What's better than a good conversation about bonds?
The need to be right vs wanting to make money. Every trader has to solve this problem and it's not easy. In this week's podcast I sit down with Dr. Andrew Menaker to talk about what he refers to as "Your Inner Market". You guys already know how much I love a good chat about investor psychology, so this was really fun for me. I hope you enjoy!
This is the weekly Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie & JC for members of Allstarcharts Plus. This week we were offsite and got together in person for our video. Hope you enjoy!
We'll be back on our regularly scheduled program next week.
If you'd like to become a Member of Allstarcharts Plus, you can find those details @ allstarcharts.com/plus
In this week's meeting, Willie & JC discuss market breadth and sentiment and how it fits within the current volatility landscape. What are professional money managers to do in this market? Willie and JC dive in and talk about the best strategies to both profit and manage risk responsibly.
This week on the podcast, Jonathan Krinsky joins me for a chat about Sector Rotation. While the Mega-cap names like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft grinded sideways, or even down, since August, the Small-caps, Mid-caps and Micro-cap names have been the leaders. What happens if the Mega-caps break out of these bases to new all-time highs? Does the sector rotation continue? Or do we then rotate into the more defensive areas like Staples, Utilities and REITs, which currently keep making new relative lows?
Where does the US Dollar fit into all this? Will a Dollar rally bust the party and end the rotation into International equities and Commodities? We discussed all of this and so much more in a very short period of time. Jonathan Krinsky is the Chief Market Technician at Bay Crest Partners and puts out research for many long/short equity fund managers. He's a CMT like me and we've known each other for many years. His perspective on markets always adds value.
This was fun. Enjoy!
This week on the podcast, I'm thrilled to have Jeff Weiss, CMT join me for a really fun chat. If you know Jeff, you already know that he's quite the character. The stories he has from his early days in the 1960s and 70s are awesome. Have you ever heard of a squawk box? How about quote machines that you had to stand in line to use, and would still only get one stock quote at a time?
In this conversation Jeff shares old stories about how he got his first job, cold-calling CEOs of different firms until one of them finally gave him a shot. Even if you're not into Technical Analysis, and you're just a fan of the market, or business in general, this episode is for you.
Make sure to check out Jeff's book: Relationship Investing, named "Best Investment Book of the Year" by the 2018 Stock Trader’s Almanac.
This was a ton of fun. Big shout out to Jeff Weiss for joining me on the show.
Oh man this was a lot of fun! Fahmy calls me up and says let’s invite everyone to a zoom call and talk about markets and drink Champagne.
Obviously, I said I was in!
We had two questions we were asking,
1) What was the biggest lesson you learned in 2020, and 2) What’s your best trade for the first half of 2021?
Next July, whoever ended up picking the best trade gets a donation from us to the charity of their choice, plus I hand select a bottle of champagne and will be sending it over to the winner.
This was a great conversation with a group of really smart people. I’d be taking some notes on this one. There’s good stuff in here.
Enjoy!
This week on Happy Hour w/ Traders, I sit down with venture capitalist Howard Lindzon. He’s a Tech investor, or that’s what it feels like from my perspective. So my question was how he invests when money is rotating out of large-cap tech and into other areas?
This sparked an interesting conversation about using today’s tools to generate new ideas, even if they’re out of your wheelhouse. We have a massive community and new tools at our disposal that investors before us never had. Let’s be grateful, and let’s take advantage!
On this week's podcast, I wanted to share a recent interview I did on Opto Sessions with Ed Gotham over in London England. Our chat took place on Thursday afternoon November 5, 2020, just a couple of days after an unresolved election. My main points revolved around focusing on price trends and worrying less about election results, at least as far as portfolio decisions are concerned.
Ed came at me with a bunch of great questions. I appreciate how direct he was. I wish more interviews I did came at me with such relevant topics and ideas.
I really enjoyed this one. Thanks Ed for a fun chat!
Mark Dow has been a guest on this podcast more times than anyone else for a good reason. Selfishly I always enjoy chatting with him. His perspective is fascinating to me because he does such brilliant job of combining price behavior with sentiment analysis and the global macro intermarket backdrop.
Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s before ultimately running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. So he has a lot of opinions on economics and politics, but he's great at not letting those things get in the way of his price behavior and sentiment analysis. He's figured out how to separate them but also use his expertise to his advantage. That's not any task.
I loved this conversation because we talked about how institutional investors are positioned coming into the U.S. election, how currencies and interest rates around the world are being affected, and in turn how they are affecting other asset classes. I ask him about Bitcoin and Gold and which one will win that battle. Of course, the US Dollar and Emerging Markets were part of the discussion (we can't help ourselves whenever we get together), but we talk about how EM is now being driven by Technology and no longer the Natural Resources of the past.
This was fun. Give it a listen!
I've done over 115 Podcast episodes and I don't remember being this excited to interview someone. I've read all the Jack Schwager books and some of them multiple times. I know traders who regularly read these chapters as part of the mental training.
Think about it, Jack has interviewed the greatest traders in history. All of them. It's incredible. And you know what strategies he uses to trade his own personal money? Technical Analysis.
He's interviewed all of the best traders for his Market Wizards books. And he says about half of them choose their market direction using Technical Analysis. But almost all of them have some sort of Technical component for risk management. This concept of Risk Management is the one common denominator between all of the most successful Traders.
Jack also pokes fun at the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which you know always brings a smile to my face. He discusses some of the success of these traders and how their consistent returns over such long periods of time completely dismiss what he refers to as the Deficient Market Hypothesis.
Don't walk to listen to this one. Run!
In this episode of The Money Game, Phil asks about what's most important to me. Is it collecting material things, or enjoying experiences with family and friends?
For me, it's quite obvious after looking back that I've enjoyed my experiences traveling throughout Asia and Europe with my wife. I remember my Dad let me skip school when I was 11 years old to go to Marlins Opening Day in 1993 (My mom was thrilled about that). I have a nice watch that I never wear. I haven't bought a car since 1997. And I have little interest in wearing that nice watch, or yet alone buying another one. I think cars are cool, but I'm still in no rush to go get one.
Let's go out for sushi. How about a hike? College football game perhaps? Let's throw a charity event and raise a ton of money to help people. Want to come to Edison, NJ for Indian food? Go wine tasting in Sonoma Valley? Hit the beaches in Miami or the Caribbean?
I'd rather do all that stuff than collect more "things". But I hadn't really thought of it that way until I really started to think back at my life and what stood out the most? Is it the things or the experiences? For me, it's quite obviously the latter.
Just something to think about. There are no right or wrong answers. I think it's about figuring out what's best for you.
Check out our latest podcast episode in full:
For this episode of the podcast I thought we'd switch things up a bit. This week was our Monthly Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Options. We've been doing this for years. Sean McLaughlin and I jump on a live video call where I go over the current market environment. And then Sean comes in and overlays his volatility analysis to find the best possible Options Trades to take advantage of the circumstances.
If you're interested in learning more about All Star Options, please visit allstarcharts.com/join-options
In this episode I get to chat with one of my all-time favorite journalists, Frances Horodelski. She was one of the first people to interview me on TV when I was still in my 20s and I don't forget that. She believed in me early on. That's really cool. We've continued to do interviews together over the years but today I flip the script and ask HER the tough questions. We discuss the role of Technical Analysis in both markets and financial media. As a former Wall Street analyst herself, she brings unique perspective and experience to traditional media. This was really informative and a lot of fun!
Earlier this month Meb Faber invited me on to his podcast. I really enjoy doing these, especially when they’re a bit outside of the Technical community. While Meb is definitely “one of us”, in terms of how he views markets, his audience includes people who might not be as informed about technical analysis and its benefits.
This is where I can try my best to do my part to spread the good word. In this conversation we talked about all sort of things from skiing, to markets, to life.
This was a lot of fun. Enjoy!
This podcast episode comes directly from our Youtube Channel. On this Happy Hour with Traders Video, I brought together some of the best minds when it comes to stock market breadth. You see all the breadth charts on twitter and you always hear debate about whether market breadth is weakening or improving. I think this round table discussion clears up a lot of misconceptions about the subject. I think it also gave each of us new ideas about how to approach the market from a weight-of-the-evidence perspective. I know I definitely got some new ideas that I want to start to do some more work on.
This is why we have these conversions. I'm fortunate to have really smart friends around the world that all view markets in their own unique ways. So I'm going to try my best to show them off so you can learn from them too!
Here's the latest Happy Hour with special guests Andrew Thrasher, Willie Delwiche, Mike Hurley and Steve Strazza. Enjoy!
This week I was a guest on the Confessions of a Market Maker Podcast. This was a really fun discussion about Dow Theory, Perma-Bears, Fibonacci & optimal wine/food pairings. I think it will give you a chance to get to me a little more.
Life isn't just about charts and markets.
Check it out!
Today we have a special episode of the podcast. I think it's important to take a step back from the markets and Technical Analysis sometimes, and talk about something that is universal to us all. For this episode I invited Morgan Housel to come and talk about the importance of writing. For those of you who have been following my work for a long time, you often hear me talk about the personal benefits of putting my ideas down on paper. Sure, people all over the world get insight into what our firm is thinking, they get steady idea flow from my blog, and in some lucky cases, people might even learn something. But the truth is, my writing is an incredibly selfish endeavor. It forces me to think through the important concepts. And as Morgan talks about in this episode, the inability to express my thoughts in written form probably means my idea is stupid to begin with. The easier it is to write about, the better it will usually be received by our audience.
Morgan Housel is definitely one of my favorite financial writers in the world today. I know a lot of smart people who would agree with that. Whether you're a market participant or not, but especially if you are, I think writing consistently is one of the most valuable things you can do. Even if you don't share it with the public, and just keep it to yourself, I encourage you to get into the habit of writing. Think about it, people were keeping a journal and writing their ideas down way before blogs existed. There's a good reason for that.
On the flip side, when it comes to reading, Morgan also had a few thoughts he wanted to share with us. He is very much against the Trophy Reading and ripping through an ungodly number of books just for the sport of it. He's gone down that rabbit hole before and learned that he's better off reading just 1 book a month, taking his time, talking to smart people about it, and really digesting it. He made some really good points about this.
This was a really fun episode and one that I think is a great compliment to a lot of the other conversations we've been having with smart folks about the markets. Enjoy!
Jeff Macke is the guy I turn to whenever I have questions about the Consumer. Anything retail, restaurants, internet sales, he's the one we want to listen to. Jeff and I have known each other for many years and are friends with a lot of the same people. On my Youtube Channel, you can find an old clip of him and I talking about Gold & Silver back in January 4, 2012.
In this episode we talk about the restaurant stocks, pharmacies, which areas he wants to avoid and which ones he wants to own. He says the pair trade of the decade could very well be: Long Shaquille O'neil (Papa Johns $PZZA) and Short Kanye West (The Gap $GPS). This was a really fun conversation. I picked up some good ideas and had a few laughs. I hope you enjoy!
In this episode of the Money Game, Phil wanted to talk about the importance of exercise. He compares the human mind and body to auto racing and how in order to succeed, the car must be in great condition. For Financial Advisors, Traders, Portfolio Managers and Analysts, we regularly go through very stressful times, and in other cases very boring times. In order to put ourselves in a position to excel, we need to have our minds right. The best way to make sure the mind is in top working order, is to make sure the body isn't being ignored. They work together.
Phil reiterates a lot of points that are probably familiar to a lot of us who focus on physical and mental health, which is fantastic. But for those of you looking for a spark, just to get the ball rolling, Phil offers some advice on easy ways to get started. He also discusses the Height-to-Waste Ratio and what we should be looking for. I thought that was really helpful too.
I encourage you to sign up for Phil Pearlman's FREE weekly newsletter: PRIME CUTS. It's filled with great words of wisdom and links to go learn more about certain topics he discusses like Mental Health, Exercise and Nutrition.
I'm so excited to have Katie Stockton on the podcast. Katie is someone whose work I've followed my entire career. Even early on, she was there talking about oscillators and price behavior. She's certainly on the list of Technicians who have influenced my work over the years. Back in the day she worked with Mike Hurley, another friend of the podcast and our featured guest in mid-March. After spending most of her career on the sell side, Katie has adapted to the changes in traditional wall street research and has now gone independent, recently founding Fairlead Strategies. This was a fun conversation that I really enjoyed. Prior to recording, I told her to just pretend we're at a wine bar with our laptops. What would that sound like? This is that!
In this episode of the Money Game, Phil and I talk about how Technical Analysts have an advantage in the current global environment. The fact that we're accustomed to focus on price behavior, and therefore tune out all the noise, we already have those good habits in place for a world filled with more noise than ever. I see people daily poisoning themselves with massive doses of news consumption, particularly horrible things happening all over the world. This conversation brings up some great points about taking care of your business, your family, your health and making sure that the things you can control are in order. If you don't have your own house in order, you can't help others. So if you really want to do right by the world, take care of yourself first, and then you will have the ability to help those in need.
This was a really cool comparison Phil is making about the advantages technicians have in the current world.
Jordan Kotick is one of the key people that early in my career inspired me to be more intermarket oriented. They would ask Jordan about the S&P500 and he would go into a tangent about bonds. They would ask him about Emerging Markets and he'd whip out, what he refers to as, "Chinese Dow Theory". For over a decade, Jordan was the Managing Director of Macro Strategy at Barclays and then Managing Director of Cross Asset Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. He is the first person to have ever been president of both the CMT Association (then called the MTA), and the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). In this podcast episode we talk about some of the great lessons Jordan learned over the years and what sorts of markets and charts investors should be paying attention to in the current environment. This was a really fun conversation and was great to catch up!
Jeff deGraaf is one of those analysts who influenced me very early on. Something I've always admired about him is how much emphasis he puts on first identifying what type of market environment we're in, before then giving more or less weight to different tools and indicators. This is one of those important steps that I think gets forgotten quite often when you see investors trying to always incorporate a certain strategy or approach regardless of the environment. In this episode, Jeff compares this stock market crash, and subsequent recovery, to others in the past including 1987. He does a nice job of incorporating what is currently taking place in Bonds and Gold into his analysis for stocks. I think there are a lot of great lessons in this conversation with, who I believe, is one of the best Technical Analysts in the world today.
Chris Ciovacco is someone whose work I've followed for many years. His approach to markets is similar to mine, in that he incorporates a weight-of-the-evidence technical strategy. His open-mindedness and ability to set up multiple outcomes to prepare for, is one to be admired. In this episode, Chris walks through his thought process when analyzing the current environment. He makes a great comparison to early 2009 and asks whether we're in January '09, just before another severe decline in stocks, or in May, on the way up after already bottoming.
This is a great episode that I hope makes you think differently and inspires you to keep an open mind and come up with your own possible scenarios for the coming months and quarters. This was a fun one!
Make sure to follow Chris Ciovacco on Twitter and at Ciovacco Capital Management
Adam Koos is a portfolio manager who uses Technical Analysis to make decisions for the clients he advises. In times like these, Financial Advisors all over the world are getting asked the hard questions. In this episode, Adam talks about how Technical Analysis has helped both his decision making and the communication with the families he works for. It's really cool to see these tools helping advisors everywhere, and especially a friend who I speak to regularly about markets and other common interests, like sports and wine.
Adam and I were both coincidentally featured in a Wall Street Journal article this week where we shared some of our favorite tools to help us in the current environment. He is the Founder of Libertas Wealth Management Group, and I loved hearing his stories about how his career first started 20 years ago and the path that led him to where he is today. We also hear his thoughts on the current market environment and the kinds of things we should be thinking about.
I really enjoyed this episode. He brings up some great points that hopefully opens up a larger dialogue.
A couple of weekends ago, I had the privilege of hosting Chart Summit 2020, an online virtual Technical Analysis conference. We had over 30 presentations, 10,000 attendees and raised a ton of money to help the people who need it most right now. A great part about the whole thing is, not only all the fun we had, but how much we all learned!
I'm so excited about it that we decided to turn my conversation with Jay Woods into a podcast episode, so you can listen to it on the go. Jay is a good friend and currently a Floor Governor of the New York Stock Exchange. It's one of the most beautiful buildings in the world and it represents so much. Jay is an ambassador for everything it stands for. In this conversation, Jay walks us though exactly what's going on in the minds of all the traders and market makers that are used to spending their days on the floor of the exchange. These are some interesting times. I couldn't think of a better moment to bring Jay into the conversation.
This was a great chat that I wanted to make sure to share with all of you. I hope you enjoy it!
Chart Summit 2020 is officially in the books. What an amazing time we had. Wow!
The videos of all the presentations are now up and you can go to ChartSummit.com and stream them for FREE!
As we always like to do here after Chart Summit, Steve Strazza and I sat down to discuss what we just witnessed. This was one of the most amazing list of speakers I've ever seen at a Financial Conference. I can't even believe we were able to pull this off! Plus, we raised over $50,000 in donations, on the first day alone, to help fight coronavirus. Thank you to everyone who attended and donated! Also, big shoutout to Traders4ACause for helping us choose the organizations we're donating to and collecting all the money. We could not have done this without you!
In this episode, we talk about the best presentations, the best charts and the common themes among the presenters. I think it always adds value to think back at what was discussed and reiterate a few of the important points that were being made by the best in the business. From Brian Shannon, Ari Wald, Craig Johnson, Gina Martin Adams, Andrew Thrasher, Frank Cappelleri, Paul Ciana, the list goes on and on....We discussed the current environment for the US and Global Stocks, Interest rates around the world, Gold and other metals, US Dollar and other currencies around the globe. There was so much value.
This was my favorite Financial Conference of all time. Easily.
I hope you enjoy our discussion, and make sure to check out all the presentations at ChartSummit.com!
Mike Hurley has been an inspiration to me for many years. When it comes to market breadth, this is the guy. He'll tell you he learned it from his predecessors and how he's standing on the shoulders of giants and all those things he discusses in this episode, but for me personally, he's been a great influence for sure. Many of you know how seriously I take my breadth work and how valuable it has been to so many of us for many years. It's people like Mike and others who have helped my process evolve to where it is today.
This was a really fun podcast for me because the topic of market breadth and internals is so near and dear to my heart. In this podcast episode, Mike and I talk about history and how different turning points in the stock market have been led by breadth deterioration (at tops) and breadth improvement (at bottoms). We also discuss 2020 so far and how breadth was deteriorating well before the S&P500 and Dow hit their ultimate highs. Once again, it was breadth that got us out of the way of trouble this cycle. Give this one a listen. I think it's one of those episodes that can live for a lifetime and help people many years (or decades) into the future.
Larry McDonald is the guy I turn to when I want to talk about the Bond Market. He always has something insightful about what's happening that I'm probably not seeing. We've become friends over the years but I originally got to know who Larry was by reading his book, Colossal Failure of Common Sense. This is a book about the collapse of Lehman Brothers being told by a bond trader inside the firm. I encourage you to pick it up and give it a read. It will give you good insight as to what exactly was taking place at the time. In this podcast Larry tells us a good story about the day his team had the most profitable day in the history of the bond desk at Lehman and Dick Fuld didn't even bother to come down and say hi.
The market today is different than it was in 2019. What's going on in the bond market is playing a huge role. I couldn't think of a better time that the present to bring in my friend Larry McDonald to discuss what we're seeing out there in the markets. This is always a lot of fun talking to one of my favorites!
Jeff Hirsch is the Author of the Annual Stock Trader's Almanac. He, and before that his father Yale Hirsch, has been publishing the must-read almanac every year since 1967. This year is the 53rd edition of the Almanac and a lot of the smartest traders I know keep the most recent copy on their desk. I personally have issues I've kept going back decades. When it comes to Seasonality, whether it's the 1-year cycle, Presidential cycle, or even intra-month and intra-week cycles, Jeff is the person I turn to first. The month of January brings along a ton of information we can use to help us make decisions in the stock market the rest of the year. The track record is pretty spectacular, as we discuss in this episode. Today, Jeff uses these seasonal trends to help him in his role as Chief Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management. In this episode of the podcast we discuss what the down January might mean for the rest of this year, how markets tend to behave on Election Years and why Seasonal trends are so important to recognize.
On this episode of the podcast I'm really excited to bring in Quantitative Researcher Chris Cain. Chris found his love for building trading systems while he was a market maker in the bond market for over 10 years. Today he works with Larry Connors and just published a book called The Alpha Formula that you can purchase at a discounted price at Tradingmarkets.com. We laugh during the podcast that Chris is so hardcore about this stuff the he actually teaches a course in Python specifically for traders and building strategies. His goal with these systems is to recognize and take advantage of our human behavior flaws so we go over a bunch of those, which I always think is helpful. He also walks through one of the 4 models and explains how having several uncorrelated strategies increases risk adjusted returns. This was a really fun conversation with one of the smart ones!
I can't believe I'm publishing the 100th Episode of this podcast that I started in the summer of 2017. My first guest ever was Ralph Acampora! I mean, how could it not be right? Since then I've had the privilege of interviewing Portfolio Managers, Traders, Analysts, Best Selling Authors and even a World Series of Poker Champion! People all over the world have approached me how much they've learned from listening to the podcasts. It's been an amazing experience for me all around.
Since it's Episode 100, how can I not invite Ralph back on the show to talk markets? In this episode Ralph describes the recent trip that him and I took to India. We both had an awesome time and are blown away by the interest out there for Technical Analysis. It really is incredible. He thinks we're going to see breakouts in Gold and Silver soon but that's not necessarily bad for stocks. Both can rise together.
I always enjoy my conversations with Ralph. He has great old stories about technicians that we're too young to remember or even know about. He's good with giving credit to some of his predecessors that probably don't get the recognition these days that they deserve. Louise Yamada for example gets a lot of credit for the phrase, "The bigger the base, the higher in space". But she'll tell you that she got that from her boss and mentor Alan Shaw. And Alan will tell you that he learned it from his boss.
So I think it's important to remember the ones who came before us. I would argue that over 95% of what you see me do, say and talk about comes from something I learned from my colleagues and/or predecessors. I didn't make any of this stuff up. The credit goes to all of them and in most cases they have all been guests on this podcast. I want the world to be able to learn from the people that I learned from and continue to learn from every day. Ralph is a great example, obviously!
There are a lot of people out there who would rather fight trends than take advantage of the ones that are already in place. The idea is they are always looking for the reversion to the mean. And while some think prices always come back to the mean, it's often forgotten that the mean can also catch up (or down) to price. I learned this lesson the hard way in 2013 and it has served me well ever since. This episode is short and sweet but I think adds a tremendous amount of value.
When I asked Phil to comment on the subject, he said, "Give me someone who can adapt, someone who is flexible over someone who is a rocket scientist any day because I can teach him to ignore that voice inside his head telling him that breakouts must revert.
The mean reversion heuristic is just one more example of how conventional thinking styles, that come hard wired in most of us and which serve us just fine in most environments, require suspension in the trading turret.
This week on the podcast I'm thrilled to have Quint Tatro join me as our guest. I've been following his work for a long time and have always appreciated his technical approach to managing portfolios at his advisory firm Joule Financial. This was a great conversation where Quint walks us through how he got to Technical Analysis in the first place and how he applies those methods on a daily basis. We went over the overall stock market and how he wants to overweight International Stocks and Emerging markets heading into 2020. He also likes Gold bigger picture here and the mining stocks that come a long with it. I really enjoyed this one. Give it a listen!
In this special episode of The Money Game, Phil asks me about any new trends I'm seeing for 2020. I give him both the sexy answer, that everyone seems to want to hear, and the real answer. I think this was a quick but valuable conversation about US and foreign markets, US Sectors like Technology and Financials and even what we see coming for Bitcoin. We had good timing on this conversation as we're just getting starting the new year.
Annie Duke is the author of one of my favorite books, "Thinking In Bets". I often find myself recommending it to both colleagues and friends and family who aren't even in our business. While the book might be written by a poker player, and is somewhat about poker, it's really about the way we think, and this applies to market participation, but also life in general. It's a book I believe everyone should read, at least once.
In this podcast episode, I asked Annie about the differences between being humble in the face of the game we're playing vs being humble in the face of your opponent. This is a really important concept that really helps put things in perspective.
Behavioral Finance in general, as my friend Phil Pearlman puts it, is very descriptive in nature. We are quick to judge and describe, while prescriptive models, at least in this field, have taken a back seat. So Annie provides a few different things we can do to continue to improve and become more self-aware. She says that there is no "cure", but even incremental improvements can compound over time. She is also coming out with a new book in September of 2020 that you can pre-order here: "How To Decide: Simple Tools For Making Better Choices". She says this is also prescriptive because of the workbook portion that is included
This was a really amazing conversation that could have gone on for hours and hours. This is her favorite topic to talk about and it's certainly near the top of my personal list. But we got through a lot of material in a short period of time, so definitely make sure to give this one a listen!
I want to thank Annie Duke for being a guest on the podcast. This one really meant a lot to me! I hope you enjoy our conversation as much as I did.
We just got back from 6 days in India and I think it will add some value to give you some perspective on the kinds of things we learned. Sean McLaughlin is our Chief Options Strategist and had never been to Asia before. This was an eye opening experience for him and one that reiterated a lot of important things I noticed in my prior visits to Mumbai. We attended a CMT Conference, we filmed a documentary on Indian Options Trading, we ate some of the best food this planet has to offer, we hung out with some of the nicest and coolest people know and got to learn a ton from everything around us. I love going to Mumbai and it's so nice to see the rest of the gang enjoyed their time there as well. I always feel so welcomed by everyone. I can't wait to go back! I hope this podcast helps shed some light on how much we enjoyed the trip and maybe that encourages you to make the voyage out there soon as well!
Neil Blalock is my guest this week on the podcast. I believe he is absolutely the perfect compliment to all of the other guests we've had on over the years. While many technical analysis, especially on this podcast, come from an equities background, Neil was raised in Missouri and brought up with commodities all around him. It wasn't until much later in his career that he focused more on the stock market. Because Technical Analysis can be applied to asset classes of all kinds, Neil is able to use his expertise across markets. What's funny is that you can take Neil out of the farm, but you can't take the farm away from him completely. When I asked him about what interests him out there, he went right for the Soybean Markets! Neil just can't help himself and it's a beauty to watch. In this episode we dive into the agriculture commodities market as well as the softs, precious metals and ultimately into the equities and interest rate markets. This was a really fun conversation with a different perspective than what you might be used to!
In this Episode of the Money Game Podcast, Pearlman goes off on what a Gamer Lamar Jackson has been. Growing up in Baltimore, Phil a big Ravens fan so we take this opportunity to talk about something really important: Going for it. We look a few weeks back when the head coach believed in Lamar's enthusiasm to just go for it on 4th down and it most certainly paid off! You live once and have the option to either go out there and get it, or always think back wondering 'what if?' Whatever is your thing - go for it!
Andrew Thrasher is the person I turn to whenever I have questions about Volatility and the $VIX. I know he tracks the data much more closely that I do and he does a good job of simplifying what may seem like complicated concepts. With the current market environment pricing in very low volatility moving forward, one can argue there is too much "complacency" towards stocks. Historically, corrections are sparked from this sort of setup. Who better to bring on to the podcast for this special Volatility Episode than Andrew Thrasher, winner of the 2017 Dow Award for his paper on Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami. In this conversation we talk about the current volatility regime, the VIX curve looking out into early 2020 and how he incorporates breadth data to supplement his volatility analysis. I really enjoyed this conversation and it seems like the perfect time to talk about Volatility!
This week I sat down with Pearlman to talk about the fact that stocks are making new highs but the amount of bulls betting on higher prices is near now lows. It was a really interesting conversation so make sure check it out on iTunes: Money Game Podcast - Stocks At New Highs & Bulls At New Lows (EP.11)https://allstarcharts.com/money-game-podcast-stocks-all-time-highs-ep-11/ At the end of our chat Phil asked me about some comments I made recently regarding the CCI Commodities Index. You can find the chart I'm referring to at: allstarcharts.com/moneygame-commodities - here is a short bonus conversation about what's happening
In this episode of the Money Game Podcast Phil and I talk about the stock market making all-time highs while sentiment points to very few bulls. This is an interesting dynamic where the behavior of the market is pointing to one thing and the behavior and emotions of society are saying something different. I've been in the camp that this negative sentiment unwind is precisely the catalyst to take stocks much higher, not just in the U.S. but around the world. It's very rare to have stocks this strong, yet so few people betting on higher stock prices. It's pretty awesome. We also talk about the deterioration, or at least an end to the expansion we're seeing, in the upside participation in stocks. We're seeing MORE stocks, sectors and global indexes participating to the upside, not fewer. Until that stops, we want to keep looking for stocks to buy.
Robert Sluymer has been a Technical Analyst for close to 3 decades. I really enjoy his intermarket, global macro perspective and the way he brings it all together in a similar way to what we do at our shop. It was hard for me to really disagree with anything Rob said during this podcast episode. It seems to me like him and I are on the same page on many levels. I didn't make it easy on him, but he certainly brought the goods. I really enjoyed this episode from someone who brings 27 years of institutional experience at RBC and is now at an independent shop at Fundstrat. We discussed Bitcoin, the S&P500, Sector Rotation, Bonds and Precious Metals. This was a good one! Give it a listen
We are back with another episode of The Money Game Podcast with Phil Pearlman. Today we talk about JOMO, the Joy Of Missing Out. Phil brings up a point of the amount of work that goes into today's version of Keeping up with the Joneses: Instagram, for example. People are so concerned with Missing Out (FOMO) that they're completely ignoring the joys of missing out (JOMO). Saying No gives us the ability and the time to stay focused on what is probably more important, whether it's health, family, friends, work or whatever else you're into. We see this in the market constantly, with traders chasing trades and worrying about what trades other people are in and the money other people are making. The beauty of this situation in the market is that we're guaranteed to get another opportunity. The market doesn't give us many (any?) other guarantees. The one thing we do know is that there are no called strikes on wall street. We can stay patient and wait for our pitch, because we know for a fact that one is coming.
Walter Deemer has been a Technical Analyst for 57 years, after starting his career at Merrill Lynch working for legendary Technician Bob Farrell. He is a founding member and past president of the CMT Association and coined the phrase, "When the time comes to buy, you won't want to!", which is the title of one of the books he's authored. We're lucky to have someone on the podcast who was in the business at a time when interest rates were NOT in a downtrend! In this episode, Walter talks to us about what it was like charting in the 1960s and 70s and what sentiment was like as we entered the 1980s and one of the greatest economic expansions in America history. "Watch their feet, not their mouths", is what Walter Deemer says when he encourages us to look at what investors are doing, rather than their opinions. This was a great conversation where we discuss what he calls our "Shoulda Fund" and what the Breakaway Momentum Strategy (breadth thrusts) means to him. I really enjoyed this one!
I've been following the work Willie Delwiche for years. As both a CFA and CMT Charterholder, I think it helps him really put things in perspective for the Advisors he works with at RW Baird. I really enjoyed the conversation we had about the markets and his process. Willie incorporates a number of breadth and sentiment measures that I've always been a fan of. He helps the Investment Advisors at the firm work with their clients and manages several portfolios as well. In this podcast episode we discuss a number of different things from Interest Rates to Gardening. It was fun to get to know Willie a bit more!
We are back with another episode of The Money Game Podcast with Phil Pearlman. Today we talk about the inability for some people trade US stocks from the long side due to biases stemming from past experiences. This is a real thing that we see constantly. So we talk about the causes, being aware of these feelings and what can be done to overcome these hurdles. I'm lucky that I've been through enough bull market and bear market cycles to not get stuck into betting on just one side or the other. But some people have a real fear of admitting they're wrong and turning bullish at, what they think might be, precisely the wrong time. Some of this is driven by ego and some is just irrational anxiety. This is a really important conversation and one that I will likely listen to again several times over in the future.
Raoul Pal is someone whose work I've admired for years, both for his global macro perspective on the markets and the amazing job he and his team have done with Real Vision. I like how they've removed a lot of the conflicts of interest that come with traditional media reporting and the sensationalizing that comes along as a result. As a Macro Analyst, he does a lot of intermarket, or "cross-asset", analysis. Raoul and I see the world through a similar lens. One area where we differ is in our experiences throughout our careers and how that's shaped our view points and biases. I really enjoyed that part of the conversation. As far as current markets are concerned, Raoul thinks that negative rates in the U.S. are a real possibility. He's pointing out 30+ year trends in the bond market. We discuss bonds as well as a wide variety of topics in this episode. I really want to thank Raoul for coming on. He was an excellent guest. Make sure to follow him on Twitter @RaoulGMI
Connie Brown is the author of one of the first books I ever read on Technical Analysis. She was the one who inspired me to use Momentum as a supplement to price behavior, particularly the Relative Strength Index (RSI). It was Connie Brown who taught me how to think outside the box and question the default settings on traditional charting software. It's that next level thinking that has helped me grow throughout my career. It is a real treat for me to have her on the podcast and I think she is a great compliment to some of the other guests we've had on over the years. In this conversation we go back to the stock market panics of the 1800s, go over different global indexes and how to use them to make decisions in our own markets. If you're interested in Technical Analysis at all and want to learn how to think about things a little differently, this is the podcast episode for you!
This week we have a special treat on the podcast. Denise Shull is a Performance Coach and founder of The ReThink Group. She is widely believed to be the inspiration for the character Wendy Rhoades on the Showtime series Billions. We have a lot of different perspectives on the podcast all revolving around the behavior of the market and its participants. In this episode we focus more on the behavior of the participants themselves and why traders do the things they do. Denise shares stories about different clients she has and the ways they overcome things like loss aversion, being too aggressive and not being aggressive enough. We discuss the differences between male and female traders, the advantages women have in this field and reasons why there are so few women on Wall Street. I really enjoyed this conversation because I think it's important to understand that there are real humans on the other side of our trades. Even if they are algos built by humans, the people are still there and it's important to understand their side. One of the best things she said was about how regardless of our strategy, we need to remember that the ultimate goal is to figure out why someone would pay a higher price in the future for the stock you're buying now. We want to think about what they're thinking. Give it a listen. It's a good one!
Todd Sohn is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the markets. He often sends me charts that no one else is looking at and points out important data that most people aren't talking about. His unique perspective on the market definitely makes him stand out from the rest. Todd and his team at Strategas do great work and it's a real pleasure to have him on the podcast. In this conversation we discuss the current environment for US Stocks, Interest Rates, Precious Metals and the sentiment driving current trends. He offers good advice for both new technicians and seasoned veterans. If you're at all interested in the market, this is an episode you can't miss. Enjoy!
Ari Wald is always one of my favorite Technical Analysts. Him and I were trained around the same time so we look at the market in a very similar way. Today Ari is the Head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer in New York and we're very lucky to have him on the podcast. If you're interested in learning more about Ari, go back and listen to his guest appearance in Season 1 (EP 2). In this episode, Ari and I discuss the current state of the US Stock Market. Included in the analysis are breadth measurements, important levels, smoothing mechanisms and sector rotation. Him and I can talk forever about this stuff so the time felt like it flew by. We covered a ton of material in a very short period of time. I hope you enjoy this one as much as I did!
I've been a fan of Tony Dwyer's work for a long time. Those of you who know me see me approach the market from a top/down global macro and intermarket perspective. Tony starts his process in a similar way at Cannacord Genuity and Dwyerstrategy.com. When we're talking about the next direction for stocks, we both focus on other assets like credit to help identify big trends. We look at the behavior of commodity and currency markets to make decisions in equities. I thought this was a really fun conversation. I particularly enjoyed Tony's comparisons to 1995 and what was going on then with respect to the President's public issues, interest rates, precious metals and the US Dollar. This podcast could have gone on forever if we let it, but we kept it short and concise so we could get to the point quickly.
This is a podcast about Technical Analysis and its practitioners. I think we've done a good job of bringing in some of the top technicians in the business, and in some cases, some of the best that ever did it. My goal when I first started this was to talk to people who bring different perspectives on the subject and on the markets in general. We've had Portfolio Managers, Analysts, Traders, Authors and Psychologists come on regularly over the past few years. Today I am thrilled to invite Riley Rosenberger to the podcast to get his point of view on Technical Analysis and what it feels like to start a career as a trader. Riley interned for us last year after spending some time training with SMB Capital in New York City. "Riley The Intern", as he's known in some circles, brings a unique perspective that we haven't heard on this podcast before. When he first decided that he wanted to learn about trading, his High School teacher in Colorado told him to think about doing something else. She said he didn't have the pedigree for that. I love that he ignored her and I love even more that every time I see him, he has a new book in his hand. He's always learning and constantly goes out of his way to get ahead. I appreciate that and I really think you'll enjoy this conversation. I certainly did!
In this episode of The Money Game, Phil and I talk about the Availability Heuristic and why we are more likely to invest in certain types of companies depending on where we live. This is a really interesting phenomenon that makes a lot of sense. I'm lucky that I get to avoid this bias more than others simply because of the process I use to perform my analysis. It's a solution to a problem I didn't even know I had! This is a short one that I think is worth a listen just to learn a little bit more about yourself.
On this Episode of the Podcast Interviews I sit down and chat with Rob Koyfman, the founder of Koyfin. This is my favorite new data and analytics platform and I find myself using these tools every day. What I find interesting and one of the reasons why we're investors is because they are building tools for both the Technical and the Fundamental community. Rob also points out the huge demand for portfolio analytics tools for Investment Advisors. The demand for these tools is coming from everyone. Him and I are often debating whether price only charts are a better representation of supply and demand than dividend adjusted charts, so we get into that discussion in this episode. Feel free to join the conversation and Tweet us @allstarcharts and @KoyfinCharts and let us know what you think.
James Brodie started out auditing for Arthur Andersen and did not particularly enjoy it. In the early 1990s he started to learn about derivatives at the largest bank in the world before ultimately moving to Credit Suisse. He's lived in London, Singapore, New York and Tokyo trading currencies for both the banks and proprietary and then started his own hedge fund. James is also on the Board of the CMT Association. I really enjoyed the advice he gives about what he learned from 2 massive losses he's taken throughout his career. James is a big fan of behavioral finance and we talk about different studies where we've learned that the better traders actually have more losing trades than winning trades. Currently James is watching Gold, EURJPY and US Interest Rates and talks about how he wants to trade them. This was a fun conversation where we covered a lot of things.
I was lucky to spend a few weeks in Europe earlier this month meeting with customers, colleagues and old friends. For me it's easy to get up in front of a crowd and talk about the charts that I've been staring at every day for over a decade. I can practically draw them for you at this point. Where I really win is in meeting with investors and traders from completely different cultures both before and after my events. I just got back from a trip to Athens, London, Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin. Between meetings, interviews and presentations, I was able to learn a lot from other investors and gain new perspective on things. That's the point of all this. If we're not going out of our way to learn, then what are we doing?
In this conversation, I sit down with our very own Sean McLaughlin to talk about some of my experiences on the road.
In this episode I sit down with Phil Pearlman to discuss Phone Addiction. Many of us are unaware and even more people don’t even care to be aware. Is it the power that we have in our phones? Or do the phones have the power over us? Phil offers some advice on this front and shares what he’s been doing.
Last week I was in London giving a presentation at the local chapter of the CMT Association. We had a great turnout and they asked a lot of really smart questions. I was not surprised at all by the high caliber of attendees, from Analysts to Portfolio Managers and even younger participants eager to learn. It was awesome all around.
Prior to the event I sat down with Alex Spiroglou to talk about how I first got into Technical Analysis and what a normal day at ASC Research looks like. This is the full audio of that interview.
Earlier this month I was invited to come speak at the Hellenic chapter of the CMT Association in Athens, Greece. We had a much bigger crowd that I expected. I've had the opportunity to speak at many of the chapters around the world, including all over Asia, North America and Europe. I felt this was one of the better Q&A Sessions we've ever had. We were able to get the audio so I wanted to share that with you today. Some of the audience questions were not as clear as we would like, so bear with us. Hope you enjoy!
Sean and I have known each other for over a decade but there are still things he’s interested in learning about my experiences. In this podcast, Sean asks me how playing baseball made me a better trader or investor. The key takeaways here are:
1) Hard Work and Mental Toughness
2) Preparation and knowing what you will do under any circumstance
3) Learning how to lose. If you fail 70% of the time on the diamond, you get inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Being able to take a loss and move on is part of the path to success.
David Zarling is a newly minted CMT Charterholder. He is Partner and Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Client First Tax and Wealth Advisors out of Wisconsin. David and I have gotten to know each other over the years and I really appreciate all of the things he is doing. In this podcast episode, David walks us through his process and how it has evolved throughout his career. He uses Technical Analysis to help manage money for clients and most importantly manage risk. I've seen a lot of him lately. He attended Chart Summit in Breckenridge, CO in February and then the CMT Symposium in New York in April. He talks about why he goes out of his way to get around like minded individuals to talk about the markets and find people to challenge his thinking. I also really liked the part about the analogies he uses when talking to clients about Technical Analysis and his process. I thought this discussion was a real value add.
Paul Ciana and I go way back to 2006 when him and I were studying for the CMT exams together. Today, Paul is the Chief FICC Technical Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. In English, that means everything outside of equities. It's nice to see your friends succeed and watching him crush it is definitely one for the good guys. In this podcast episode we dive deep into the FX world where Paul walks us through 3 important currency pairs that all stock market investors should follow. We talk about Crude Oil and Gold and other precious metals. The Dollar is a key focus right now for both Paul and me, so we get into what the implications are for stocks and other assets around the world. I really enjoyed this conversation. It could have gone on for hours and hours. We're lucky to have Paul come on the podcast. He speaks to the biggest PMs in the world on a daily basis and has been doing that for close to a decade and half. His unique perspective is a huge value add for sure!
Back in March I climbed up the Highlands Bowl in Aspen for the first time. 4 or 5 turns in my skis popped off and I tumbled down the entire mountain. About 100 yards later, there I was hanging off the side of the cliff waiting for ski patrol to come help me. Miraculously, it took them less than 20 minutes to find us and bring my skis down to where I was. Even though I was perfectly fine, my body overreacted to the existential risks and the primitive parts of my brain took over the duties of what other parts usually handle. I've had similar feelings before after experiencing a bad loss in the market. Phil does an amazing job in this one explaining the differences and similarities between these two types of risk.
This is a mashup of 3 live conversations I had with market experts at the CMT Symposium last month. Andrew Thrasher joins us to talk about market breadth. David Keller and I discuss how hard it is for people, especially market participants, to say "I don't know". And Rob Koyfman, the founder of Koyfin Charts, explains how investors all over the world are using his groundbreaking data analytics tools.
This week on the podcast we have the pleasure of chatting with Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Jaffray. I've known Craig for a long time and love the work that he puts out. During the day he speaks to buy side clients all over the world. As a past president of the CMT Association, he has surrounded himself with some of the best minds in the history of technical analysis. His perspective based on who he speaks to and his experiences throughout his career make me want to listen when he has something to say. In this conversation we discuss the rest of the year for U.S. stocks and sectors. There's a part in this episode that focuses on breadth and what we're both looking for moving forward. Inflation, or lack thereof, is something he's watching, so we talk about Gold, Oil and other inflationary factors that could impact stocks and bonds. We covered a lot. I really enjoyed this one!
This week we have a special guest on the podcast: Eddy Elfenbein of Crossing Wall Street and PM for the $CWS Exchange Traded Fund. This is a show about Technical Analysis so I think it's important to also include some of the masters of Fundamental Analysis to tell us how they find charts and technicals helpful in their process. Eddy is one of the original Financial Bloggers and I have a ton of respect for him and his work. He is a pioneer in both social media and portfolio management. I love how he explains his appreciation for Intermarket Analysis and Relative Strength as useful tools throughout his process. As many of you know, these two are near and dear to my heart so it's cool to see the Fundamental community embracing them in similar ways. This was a fun conversation!
Relative Rotation Graphs are some of the best visual tools in Technical Analysis today. In this episode, I am thrilled to have the creator of RRG, Julius de Kempenaer, on to talk about what first inspired him to create this tool and what some of the best practices are for market participants. I discovered RRG about 6-7 years ago after watching a colleague use it during a presentation at Bloomberg in New York City. As a technician, I use charts to visualize data to help identify trends and manage risk. RRG is more of a rotation tool that can be used for sectors, country indexes and currencies. By using a combination of Relative Strength and Momentum data, the RRG rotates clockwise from Leading to Weakening, to Lagging, to Improving and then back again to Leading. In this discussion, Julius walks us through how he likes to use it and explains its construction. If you're interested at all in sector rotation and relative strength, this tool is for you!
In this episode of The Money Game, Phil answers my questions about the work/life balance with: "There is no such thing". He says life is all about decisions. I tried to push back a bit and point out the extremes, both in my life and in those around me, but he says I'm overthinking things. I thought this was a really helpful conversation, selfishly, so I hope it adds value to your process as well.
Greg Harmon is one of the OGs of the Financial Blogosphere. He has been consistently contributing to the community for over a decade. For you new comers, this is how it's done. Greg is the founder of Dragonfly Capital, where he is the portfolio manager and I encourage you to follow him on Twitter @harmongreg. He paid his dues early in his career traveling around the world and holding senior positions including Head of Global Trading, Head of Product Development, Head of Strategy and Director of Equity at JP Morgan, State Street and BNP Paribas. It was not until after all of this experience that he started his blog and joined our FinTwit community. In this conversation we discuss how although he is both a CFA Charterholder and CMT, he chooses to incorporate more a technical approach to markets. He then takes it one step further by using options to both maximize returns and, more importantly, manage risk. He is the author of 'Trading Options' and I recommend getting a copy as soon as possible. This was a good conversation with one of the smart guys in the room.
I can't believe we pulled it off! Two weeks ago, I co-hosted my very first financial conference and it was an amazing success. I think it exceeded all of our expectations, including the hosts and the guests. I've never been to a conference that promoted getting outside and exercising and then matching that excitement with consistently incredible speakers who each added value in their own unique way. Now that we've had a chance to digest everything that happened, I sat down with our Chief Options Strategist, Sean McLaughlin, to discuss the event and some of the things that stood out the most. I hope you enjoy this quick rundown of our 2 day Technical Analysis Conference in Breckenridge, CO that we proudly call "Chart Summit".
On this podcast episode, we're flipping the script a bit. I was invited to come on the DailyFX Podcast hosted by Tyler Yell last week, and I wanted to share that audio with you here today. In this conversation, we discuss the recent Chart Summit in Breckenridge, CO, how and why I started Allstarcharts.com and what trends I'm currently seeing in the market. One thing we also talked about was the benefits of journaling and writing ideas down on paper. I really enjoyed this conversation so thank you Tyler Yell and DailyFX for inviting me on.
Howard Lindzon has always been there for me. He is the founder of Stocktwits, who originally built Allstarcharts.com back in 2010 and welcomed me into their network of bloggers. Many of these are still around today and doing better than ever! Howard has invested in some of my ventures over the years and I've invested in a few of his. He keeps me posted on developments in the private markets and I keep him up to speed on public markets. Last week was the Chart Summit in Breckenridge, CO. On the second day of this awesome event, I sat down and had a fireside chat with Howard. We discuss what he likes to call "Chart Art", and we also talk about some of the biggest trends he's seeing in Finance and Technology. Although this was a Technical Analysis conference, I think getting to pick the brain of a master VC about the tools we're using, or will be using, adds value to both the Chart Summit and Podcast. I hope you enjoy this one as much as I did!
We're back with another episode of The Money Game with Phil Pearlman. Today's conversation is about the internet troll. Phil gives us insight into the science of what is taking place when a person actually has the time, and interest, to go out of their way to consume someone's content, take the time to think about it and then go even further to publish angry and hurtful words about it. There are psychological issues there that we discuss from both the perspective of the troll and the content producer who gets harassed. This is a good topic and just one of many that we'll try and cover here on The Money Game.
Jon Bloom is the Head of Institutional Sales for us here at All Star Charts. He brings over 20 years of experience as a sell side trader. We're thrilled to have him as part of the team and I invited him on the podcast to share his thoughts on the way the business has changed since the 80s and 90s. The old model is broken and dying a slow and depressing death. We're fortunate to be positioned to take advantage of these changes and I think we've done a good job of filling that void. Buy side clients are simply not getting the service they need because of the conflicts of interest on wall street, so they've been coming to us for help. As the Chief Strategist, I'm winning all day because I get to speak with some of the biggest and most powerful Portfolio Managers on earth, every day. I should be paying them! Jon Bloom does a good job of explaining why that old business is over and why he decided to join us at All Star Charts specifically last year. We've had a lot of different perspectives on the podcast, but this is the first time that we are really able to dive into the actual business. I really enjoyed this one. I hope you find as much value from it as I did.
John Roque is a Technical Analyst who I've looked up to since early in my career. From the bottom of my heart, it was guys like him who inspired me to analyze the behavior of markets and do it in a way that is unique to me. I've always enjoyed his comparisons between markets and sports. While on the sell side, John was consistently ranked among the top analysts before joining the buy side, including Soros Fund Management. In this conversation, we discuss everything from Ted Williams to Corn Futures. He gives us his thoughts on Gold, Crude Oil, Interest Rates and the combined market-caps of Financials & Technology sectors. This was a real honor for me to get to interview one of my favorite technicians on the Street. I hope you enjoy it!
Tyler Wood is a Managing Director at the CMT Association, the global credentialing body for the CMT designation. A Chartered Market Technician (CMT) has achieved the highest education within the discipline of Technical Analysis and is the preeminent designation for practitioners worldwide. I finished up the 3rd Level of the CMT back in 2008, just in time to help me navigate that historic period for the market. I've known Tyler for almost 10 years and can tell you first hand that he is regularly speaking with some of the best technicians in the world. I think he brings a unique perspective on the subject and thought he would be a good compliment to a lot of the other guests we've had on the podcast. In the episode we touch on the growth of Technical Analysis and the CMT since the late 60s, the role that women have always played, both in the field and, in the organization, the international awareness we're seeing about Technicals and how social media has changed the access that younger market participants have to market veterans. I really enjoyed this one!
Andrew Adams is well known for his morning market commentary to thousands of financial advisors at Raymond James for many years. After working along side legendary strategist Jeff Saut, Andrew has started 2019 wearing his new trader hat. Andrew has wanted to go out on his own and trade full time and he has finally made that move. We here at Allstarcharts want to wish him the best of luck on his new endeavors. During this episode, Andrew tells us about his experiences at Raymond James, working with Jeff Saut, earning both his CFA and CMT designations, and now using this body of knowledge to enter the trading world full time. I asked Andrew about what he's currently seeing in U.S. stocks, emerging markets, U.S. interest rates and precious metals. I really enjoyed this conversation with someone who is new to social trading scene. Make sure to follow him @DayTraderGator and give him a big welcome!
This week on the podcast we have the "Blog-Father" Barry Ritholtz. Barry's Big Picture Blog has been a must read for me going back to 2006. He was one of the only voices of reason throughout 2007-2008 warning everyone of the coming collapse in stocks. He is also the author of one of my favorite books on that period, "Bailout Nation". Today, Barry is the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of RWM, the hottest wealth management firm in the world right now. In this episode, Barry takes us back 20 years to his early blogging days, he tells us what it was like covering the financial crisis in 2008 and then writing a book about it. Today he's focused more of his attention on behavior finance and I really enjoyed some of his examples about our flaws and what we can do about them. We discussed a lot during this podcast: Emotional responses, evolutionary traits and the stupidity of people. Barry hosts one of the best podcasts in finance, Bloomberg's Masters In Business, so it was nice to flip the script and pick his brain for an hour. Enjoy!
Having Trading Psychologist Dr. Brett Steenbarger on the podcast was a huge treat for me. He works with the best traders on planet earth on a daily basis. Needless to say, when Dr. Brett is telling me something, I want to listen. In this episode, he let me ask him all the questions I was curious about and he happily answered them all with solid advice and relevant anecdotes. We make a lot of mistakes as investors because of our many flaws as humans. When our stress levels are elevated we start acting emotionally, instead of rationally. Taking losses is a difficult task for us, even though we all know that losses are part of the deal. I really enjoyed this conversation and it could have gone on forever if I didn't end it. I hope you get as much value from this chat as I did.
This week I'm thrilled to have David Keller on the podcast. He is a former President of the CMT Association and spent a long time at Fidelity, and Bloomberg before that. In this episode, the current Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha walks us through why is approaching the U.S. stock market from a more neutral perspective. We discuss US Treasury Bonds, Rates, Gold, Crude Oil and other assets that are making new highs like Palladium. I really enjoyed this conversation, especially how David compares trading to risk management as a pilot. He likes to fly planes when he's not looking at charts. This was a fun chat.
A conversation with Arun Chopra is one that makes you smarter. That's how I see it. Arun has formal training as both a CFA Charterholder and a CMT. He has helped produce award winning films at the Sundance Film Festival and he's on the same journey as us: to make money in the market. He uses a combination of global macro, technical and sentiment indicators that he is working on putting into a more quantitative model. Picking his brain about the process and his experiences in this endeavor was really enlightening. In this episode we discuss current markets, sector rotation, credit spreads widening and the possibilities for the US Stock Market Indexes to break to new lows. I really enjoyed this discussion with Arun. I always do.
This is a special episode for me. James Bartelloni, CMT was one of my early mentors in the field of Technical Analysis. It's a treat to be able to have him join us on the podcast. What I like about Bart is that every time we chat, he gets me thinking about something new. He looks at the market in a different way than most market participants. His risk management techniques include sacred geometry, musical notes and lunar cycles, among others. It's always an interesting conversation with Bart, the editor of the blog BartsCharts.com. If this episode gets you thinking differently and gets you a bit out of your comfort zone, mission accomplished!
I am really enjoying these conversations with Phil Pearlman. This is the 3rd episode we do where we're discussing important topics about our feelings and emotions. Today's topic is Grit, and the advantages that someone with grit has these days over those who don't. Taking a loss and moving on is not just part of investing, it's part of life. In this conversation we discuss the Bond Market and the implications of U.S. 10-year yields losing 3% and why Phil is Bullish Grit going into 2019.
This past weekend I was down in San Diego for the annual Trade Ideas Summit. I gave a presentation earlier in the day, which you can watch at allstarcharts.com/blog, and then sat on panel later in the afternoon with some really smart guys. So I thought it would add value to share this conversation with everyone. My good friend Sean McLaughlin, who is also the Chief Options Strategist at Allstarcharts.com moderated the panel, which included Brian Shannon and Dr. Brett Steenbarger. This conversation revolves a lot around process. Dr. Brett gave us a ton of insight as to what we can do psychologically to help us perform better. Brian is someone who I've been learning from since 2005, so it was a real treat to be sitting up there with these guys.
Frank Cappelleri is one of my favorite guys to listen to. He brings a unique perspective because of a lot of his experience on Wall Street. Early in his career he spent time working at Smith Barney with legends Alan Shaw and Louise Yamada. He then experienced his first bear market after March 2000 working with former Lehman trader John Schlitz. Frank has been at Instinet, which is owned by Nomura, for a long time and is constantly in touch with some of the smartest guys in the business. I think he's as good a technician as anyone and in this episode he shows us just that. We discuss the market implications of a rising US Dollar and why he no longer has a target above 3050 for the S&P500. I was really looking forward to this conversation and we're lucky we get to pick his brain for a bit. I hope you enjoy this one!
This past weekend was the 5th annual Traders4ACause Conference in Las Vegas. It was a lot of fun and a bunch of us helped raise money for a list of great causes. On Saturday I gave a presentation about what I'm currently seeing in the markets, including Stocks, Bonds and Currencies. Sunday I sat on a panel with Joe Fahmy and Paul Singh and we just chatted about the markets, what we're seeing out there and shared some stories about the things we've learned over the years. We recorded the conversation so here it is in full. I encourage everyone to check out the Traders4ACause site and donate even if you could not attend. I hope you enjoy our discussion!
In this episode I am thrilled to have Mark Newton, Founder of Newton Advisors. Mark is one of those Technical Analysts that I have followed for many many years. His intermarket perspective and top/down approach is one of the best on The Street. He does great work on relative strength and ratio charts to really gauge the flow of money from one asset to another. His experience on both the Buy Side and Sell Side gives him a unique perspective and I've always found it helpful to pick his brain whenever I get the chance. In our conversation we discussed U.S. Stock market breadth, keeping an open mind to future outcomes, Interest Rates, Oil and Gold and how he approaches the market day in and day out. I really enjoyed recording this episode and I think you'll quickly see why. This was a good one!
Wednesday morning 10/4/18 JC Parets was on the Benzinga Premarket Prep Show discussing US Stocks, Sector Rotation, the Bonds & Yen correlations with equities and where Crude Oil and Gold fit into the current market environment.
Kim Sokoloff is a trader's trader. Whenever I see her she is always telling me about her trading day, what she was buying and what she was selling. I have a huge appreciation for the passion she brings to the markets on a daily basis. We all have different time horizons, some longer-term and some shorter-term. Kim is concerned with what stocks are doing over a a few days. For her, "long-term" is only a couple of weeks. In this episode, Kim walks us through her morning routine and thought process throughout the trading day. We've had analysts, money managers and traders on the podcast, but in this conversation we really dive deep into what it's like trading every day from an apartment in lower Manhattan. I really enjoyed this discussion with a very active swing trader and practicing technician.
In this episode I asked my friend Ryan Detrick to come talk about the quantitative work he does as part of the technical analysis he provides for advisors at LPL Financial. I have been following his work for years and have gotten to know Ryan well during that time. I was really looking forward to this conversation and it exceeded all of my expectations. Ryan does an excellent job of using basic mathematics to debunk popular myths told to investors about the market. We discuss the impact of a rising rate environment on U.S. stocks, the Yield Curve, Stock Market Seasonality and some of the things he is currently seeing in the market. This is a can't-miss episode!
There are few people in this world who spend as much time with active traders as Mike Bellafiore, who has been a Managing Partner at SMB Capital since 2005. I think his unique perspective on trading and traders themselves is the perfect compliment to a lot of the other guests that we've had on the podcast. In this episode, Mike talks about some of the qualities that he's seen in the more successful traders as well as common mistakes he sees being made on the desk. Throughout the conversation, Mike gives us an inside look into the trading floor, how they separate traders into teams and the way the more experienced, proven traders help the younger up and comers. I really enjoyed this one!
This week I'm thrilled to have my pal Todd Gordon on the show. He is what I like to call an "Elliottician", meaning he approaches the market using the Wave principle developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott throughout the 1930s. Todd Gordon, of TradingAnalysis.com walks us through his wave counts for the S&P500, Gold, and Semiconductors. In this episode, I think we demystify and answer some of the questions we all have about Elliott Wave and its practicality. I encourage you to have the charts with you when you listen to this one because Todd goes over several Elliott Wave counts that will make a lot more sense if you're following along visually. He does a good job of explaining things so you can also go back and listen again with the charts in the future. I hope you enjoy this one. I really did!
This is only the second episode of The Money Game Podcast that I've recorded with Phil and I'm already learning a ton. The idea behind these conversations is to help make us more aware of our bad habits driven by our cognitive behavior flaws. In this episode, Phil and I talk about Loss Aversion and the fact that as investors and in life, we are motivated more by our fears than we are by our potential to win. This is an incredibly complicated topic so I think it's important to start this conversation early in this Money Game Podcast series.
I've known Dan Russo for a long time and he always brings amazing insights and trade ideas. He's experienced, knows the markets and most importantly, he puts in the work. I have a tremendous amount of respect for him and his technical analysis. It was a real treat picking his brain and discussing what he is currently seeing in the market. In this episode, we talk about U.S. Stocks and the sector rotation that is taking place. He shares his thoughts about Healthcare stocks, Consumer Discretionary and life. I really enjoyed this conversation!
I'm so excited to announce that I've started a new podcast with my friend Phil Pearlman! We're calling it "The Money Game" and we'll have a new episode out each week. For you guys who are unfamiliar with Phil, he earned a doctorate in clinical psychology and has always been the person I turn to when I have questions about human emotions and cognitive behavior. As a technical analyst, what I'm doing is analyzing the behavior of the market and market participants. So understanding who we are and why we act the way we do is part of that process.
Phil and I used to do weekly youtube videos back in 2013 that he would call "Weekends With Allstarcharts". Fast forward 5 years later, and with the power of technology, we're bringing it back as a podcast.
The ongoing joke among many of my friends and I is that the last thing this world needs is another podcast. I would counter that and say that another podcast is exactly what this world needs. Podcasts are great and there are some really good ones that add a ton of value to my week.
Phil and I have been good friends for a long time. He's always asking me what's going on in the market and I'm always asking him about our brains, life, health and family. So all we're really doing is recording our conversations. We're going to discuss a different topic every week about our cognitive behaviors and Phil is going to ask me to explain what's happening in the market from a technical perspective.
This is going to be a lot of fun!
I first launched Technical Analysis Radio a year ago in August of 2017 with the intention of having regular conversations with the smartest Technical Analysts in the world. We did 25 episodes in Season 1 and are already several episodes in on Season 2. These interviews will continue on their regular schedule, but now we'll add The Money Game Podcast to that same channel. So there is no need to resubscribe to anything new. Both the Podcast Interviews and the Money Game with Phil will be on the Technical Analysis Radio feed.
Todd Sohn does amazing work on a daily basis. We're constantly communicating and sharing ideas with one another. I can tell you for a fact, there are few people in this world who look through as many charts as Todd. Our process is similar so I have really been looking forward to this conversation. We covered a lot of topics in this episode including U.S. Stocks and the sector rotation we've been seeing underneath the surface. Sentiment is a big part of their work over at Strategas and I find it really interesting how he incorporates analyst ratings to find ideas in the market. This is a good one!
This conversation with Mark Dow kicks off Season 2 of the All Star Charts Interviews. Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s and later was a sovereign analyst at a Mutual Fund before ultimately running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. Today, Mark runs a Family Office from southern California and recently launched a Private Twitter Account that you can subscribe to called Behavioral Macro. In this Episode, we talk about the benefits of Technical Analysis throughout both process and execution, where we are in the US Stock Market cycle, rates, precious metals and emerging markets. Him and I both speak really fast so we covered a lot in a short period of time!
Before we start again with Season 2 of the Allstarcharts Interviews, I wanted to introduce you to our new Chief Options Strategist at Allstarcharts.com - options wizard Sean McLaughlin! Many of you already know him as @chicagosean. When it comes to the Greeks, this is the guy you want on your side, so we're lucky to have him. In this podcast episode, Sean and I talk about Trading, Social Media, Taking Vacations, Books to read and of course, Options! This was a fun conversation to have and I think there are a lot of pieces of value to take away from this one.
Monday afternoon I was down in San Francisco, so I went by the Bloomberg West studios to do a quick hit with Catherine Murray. She asked me about the S&P500, Technology, Financials and the underperformance of Consumer Staples. We also discussed sector rotation and Crude Oil during the segment.
This week I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Anthony Crudele, host of the Futures Radio Show. In this episode he asked me about my process, how I first got into the market, how I approach the market place today and in what ways we help our clients who are financial advisors, hedge funds, family offices, traders and individual investors. I really enjoyed this conversation and wanted to share it on the stream.
Last week I had the honor of speaking at the 7th Annual Traders Carnival in Mumbai, India. Bloomberg Quint covered the event and I had the opportunity to sit down with Navneet SalujaDsouza to discuss my process and some of my thoughts on the NIFTY 50 Index. Here is the audio recording of that interview.
Rick Bensignor is an analyst whose work I've followed for a long time. In my early days as a technician I always appreciated his intermarket and behavioral approach to investing. When he reached out to me earlier this year I took advantage and invited him on to the podcast right away. Since we don't know each other very well yet, I tried to really get a good understanding of both his experience and approach to markets. I think you'll come away from this episode with a better understanding of the changes in the business of wall street research, new perspective on the secular cycles for interest rates and an appreciation for technical analysis as a tool, and not a career. Rick talks about the importance of sector rotation analysis for the long only community and I tend to agree with a lot of what he has to say. I hope you enjoy this one as much as I did.
Jon Najarian has been trading options since the early 80s when he first entered the Chicago pits. I've always had an appreciation for the way Jon looks at the behavior of market participants through the options market, particularly the largest institutional players. By monitoring the volume size of these trades, he pays close attention to what the biggest participants are doing, often times trading alongside the "smart money". I think his perspective on this specific area of the market adds a ton of value to our conversations about Technical Analysis. In this episode, we discuss the new higher volatility regime in U.S. Stocks, what to expect moving forward and a few areas in the market where Jon is seeing unusual options activity. Since we're lucky enough to have "Dr J" on the podcast, we had to ask him about the Chicago Bears, what the trading life in the city of Chicago was like, how things have changed through Technology and even a few words on Bitcoin and Crypto Currencies. I really enjoyed this conversation with someone whose work I have really admired for a long time.
Jay Woods has been a designated market maker on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for over 25 years. This being Technical Analysis Radio, I think it's important to understand what goes on down there and how it's changed over time. In this episode Jay shares old war stories from one of the most important and symbolic buildings in America. This conversation is the perfect compliment to some of the other perspectives we've heard throughout season one of the podcast. Jay Woods is a Chartered Market Technician who focuses on price behavior and sentiment. We discuss the current U.S. Stock Market environment including sector rotation, particularly in Financials and Technology. With volatility coming back in 2018, I think this is a great time to hear from Jay and find out what he's seeing from the floor of the NYSE.
Jeff Hirsch is the Editor of the annual Stock Traders Almanac, an inside look at the seasonal tendencies of the stock market. As Technicians we study the behavior of the market and market participants. By analyzing how our human activities change throughout the year, as well as various other cycles, we can see the impact it has on the stock market. Yale Hirsch, Jeff's father, first started publishing the almanac in the late 1960s. In this podcast episode, Jeff tells us what it was like growing up studying charts and seasonality. He then walks us through some of the most important seasonal cycles, and what some of the implications are when markets ignore seasonal tendencies. In this podcast series we like to focus on the current market environment and this episode is no different. The Almanac Trader and I discuss the current Midterm Election year and how January got us started. There are several cycles coming together at once right now and it's fascinating to hear it directly from Jeff himself. I think this discussion about seasonality is the perfect compliment to some of the other podcasts episodes that showcase different types of technical analysis tools.
Andrew Thrasher is the perfect guest to have on the podcast this month. His expertise in Volatility made him the 2017 Charles Dow Award winner, ironically the year that the US Stock market saw the lowest volatility on record. Today, Andrew is an Indianapolis-based Portfolio Manager at The Financial Enhancement group and we're thrilled to have him on. In this episode, Andrew walks us through the Volatility spike in early February, some of the things that accelerated the move and what we should expect moving forward. We discuss his thoughts on market breadth, internals and sector rotation. This is a timely conversation with one of the smart ones!
Louise Yamada has been an inspiration to me for my entire career. Bringing nearly 4 decades of experience as a technical analyst, Louise adds a unique perspective on markets that makes her the perfect compliment to some of the younger guests that we've had on the podcast. Louise, who for a number of years received Institutional Investor's top ranking, was a special guest on "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street" and you can still find her regularly being featured on Bloomberg, CNBC and other financial media outlets. Today, Louise Yamada, CMT is the Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors (LYA). In this conversation we talk about the long-term cycles of interest rates and precious metals going back almost 100 years. While we do dive into these longer time horizons, in this episode Louise also gives us her short-term take on U.S. Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin and even lays out her favorite strategy for the Bond Market right now. This is such a treat for us to have a legend share her time and be a guest on our show. She has been a huge influence on my work over many years, so I hope you enjoy this discussion as much as I did!
Mark Dow has been a favorite follow of mine on Twitter for a long time. His global macro perspective is directly in line with the way I view the world. We come from very different backgrounds, however. Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department and was in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s. After that he was a sovereign analyst at a Mutual Fund before running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. Today, Mark runs a Family Office from southern California and recently launched a Private Twitter Account that you can subscribe to called Behavioral Macro. In this conversation, Mark talks about the current environment for stocks, interest rates and the rotation into emerging markets and base metals. He brings a disciplined process and approach to the market that I've respected for many years. I really enjoyed this conversation with someone I consider to be one of the smartest guys in the room.
You can learn more at BehavioralMacro.com
Studying the behavior of market participants is something that we do on a daily basis, whether we recognize it or not. Especially as Technical Analysts who focus on changes in price at very specific levels, understanding the psychology behind why investors are behaving in certain ways is part of that process. Dr. Daniel Crosby is an excellent resource for investors looking to learn more about themselves and investor psychology. In this conversation we discuss the cognitive behavior traits seen on a daily basis from investors with elevated levels of stress due to active positions in the market. Recognizing these flaws is step 1 in our journey to learn more about ourselves so we can be in a position to make the best decisions possible in order to succeed. This is a podcast episode that I have wanted to record for a while now because I think it's a good breakup from the more traditional market analysis and commentary. I hope this conversations inspires you to take a step back and become more aware of what you're doing and why you're doing it. I believe the more self-aware we are, the more efficiently and intelligently we can move forward as market participants.
On January 27th, 2018 the 2nd Annual Chart Summit was broadcasting LIVE from the Internet, bringing together an elite group of professional technicians who walked the audience through their process and showed us how to apply their methods in the current market environment. This impressive list of industry experts includes active traders, top Wall St. analysts, wealth managers, swing traders and long-term Investors who each brings a unique perspective on the market.
Hosted by the Founder of Allstarcharts.com, JC Parets, Chart Summit was a FREE event and could be viewed online in the comfort of your home from anywhere in the world. The presentations are intended for investors of all kinds: retail investors with short or long-term time horizons, professional investment advisors, traders, fund managers, analysts, professors, and students. This event was the first of its kind and is still fully committed to providing both educational value and actionable market commentary. If you missed this year's event, you can still watch the videos of the presentations for FREE by clicking here.
In this episode, I'm joined by Tom Bruni, a long time friend of Allstarcharts.com and former intern. He brings a unique perspective on markets as he is fresh out of college and finishing the process of earning his CPA, CFA and CMT designations. I couldn't think of anyone else I would rather have to discuss and review this year's Chart Summit, the presentations, charts and presenters. This is a special podcast episode dedicated to Chart Summit 2018.
Joe Fahmy is a trader whose work I've respected for nearly a decade when I was first introduced to him and his investing style. What makes Joe special in my opinion is his awareness of when to press his long positions and be aggressive, while at the same time incorporating a more neutral or defensive approach whenever the market dictates. This discipline is not always easy, but he does it well. Joe and I have known each other for a long time and the conversations we've had over meals or drinks is a large part of the inspiration to start this podcast. Joe Fahmy is one of the premier voices for the importance of relative strength analysis throughout an investing process. In this podcast episode we discuss the current U.S. Stock Market environment, sentiment and some select areas where he is currently seeing rotation and strength. This was a great conversations with someone who I consider to be one of the smartest guys in the room! I hope you enjoy.
Scott Redler has been trading for almost 20 years. He's been through the ups and downs in the market on a daily basis and that is something I have a tremendous amount of respect for. Not many people can say this and still be alive and doing better than ever. I'm happy for him and could not be more thrilled to have him as a guest on the podcast. Today Scott is the Chief Strategic Officer at T3 Live where he gets to trade throughout the day as well as share his ideas with the world every single day of the week. In this conversation, Scott walks us through a normal day in his world, what he's currently seeing in Technology and Energy stocks, where he did well last year and some interesting thoughts on the crypto-currency world. What I loved about this episode is that we have a trader speaking from the heart and letting us into his head so we can all become better and wiser investors. I really enjoyed this and I hope you do as well.
JC Ohara is the perfect compliment to all of the amazing guests that we've already on the podcast. Because his clients are primarily hedge funds and other buy side institutions, JC brings a unique perspective on market behavior, sentiment and investor psychology. As the Chief Market Technician at FBN Securities, JC gets to speak to some of the smartest investors in the market and we're lucky to have him sharing his insights and experiences with us in this episode. This week we talk about the current market environment for stocks using breadth indicators, Put/Call Ratios, Investor polls and valuation metrics. I really enjoyed this conversation with someone whose work I have a ton of respect for. I hope you get as much value from this as I did.
James Bianco is someone who has definitely influenced my work throughout my career. If you've ever watched one of my presentations, you know I could rip through 150 charts in an hour without a problem. I'm pretty sure I got in this habit watching James Bianco. Also, his multiple timeframe approach to Interest Rates and Intermarket Analysis is something I have a lot of respect for. In this conversation we discuss Bitcoin, of course, Rates, Sentiment, old market indicators that are no longer useful and what the spread between Copper and Gold could be signaling for the markets moving forward. This was a real treat for me to have someone I've looked up to for a long time and pick his brain about his process. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did!
This week on the podcast we have Charlie Bilello, Chartered Market Technician and Director of Research at Pension Partners, LLC. Charlie is someone many of us consider to be a deep thinker. The former Charles Dow Award winner is well known for busting stock market myths made popular by members of the media and other types of people who do not participate in markets. In this episode we discuss why news consumption tends to do more harm than good, what some of the alternatives are and why it is a good idea to follow market behavior, instead of people's opinions. We get into the current market environment and discuss the current sentiment and price action in Gold, Bitcoin and US Equities. Charlie is one of the ones I knew I wanted to have on this podcast early on, so I'm thrilled that he was able to join us for a full hour. This is a must listen to conversation from someone who I have a ton of respect for!
Chris Kimble is one of those Technical Analysts that I started following a long time ago. He incorporates an intermarket approach and consistently uses multiple timeframes. Those are things that definitely get my attention. In this podcast, Chris shares with us some of his experiences with his mentor Sir John Templeton. While we talk about a lot of the lessons that we've learned over the years, this conversation dives into the short-term and longer-term outlook for Gold, the US Dollar, Crude Oil and Interest Rates. Sentiment is something that Chris and I both focus on so I think this conversation is well rounded in terms of having both an educational focus and actionable ideas for the current market environment.
Gail Dudack brings a unique perspective to markets, particularly compared to other guests we've had on Technical Analysis Radio. Gail's career goes back to the 1970s. She has served the Chief US Investment Strategist at UBS and Pershing prior to that. She was a rotating panelist on ‘Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser’ for over 20 years. As a past President of the CMT Association, I think her experience and approach to markets is one we can all learn from. In this episode Gail talks about how she incorporates the news cycle into her sentiment work along with other more quantitative inputs. Early in her career she would focus on the Odd Lotters and Short Interest so it is interesting to hear how that has been forced to change over the years as markets have evolved. In terms of the current market environment, Gail talks about the lack of extreme sentiment readings in Stocks, the prospects of us being earlier in the cycle rather than late, and where Interest Rates, Bonds and Gold fit into those major themes. Sector rotation, momentum and relative strength are also discussed during this podcast episode. This is definitely a can't miss conversation with a Wall Street legend!
Dr. Phil Pearlman is a stock market psychologist who I have turned to for help and guidance throughout a large portion of my career. In this episode we dive deep into cognitive behavior and discuss some solutions to flaws in the behavior of investors. Phil discusses exposure therapy for traders in a similar way that PTSD patients are treated. Technical Analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and market participants. The more we learn about ourselves and the way we are trained to think emotionally, the more aware we will be as we enter and exit the public marketplace. I asked Phil to give us his take on Bitcoin, Stock Market Volatility and Precious Metals. This conversation is one I recommend going back to on regular basis to remind ourselves to be more in tune with what we're thinking and why we're thinking it.
Larry McDonald is not only one of my favorite authors and analysts, but also one of my favorite people. His perspective on markets, sentiment and investor behavior is like no other. Larry is the author of A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers. It is a must read for any investor. While he tends to focus more on the Bond Market and Interest Rates, he incorporates an intermarket approach that includes currencies, equities and commodities. While this is a podcast specifically about Technical Analysis, I think Larry brings in a political and economic point-of-view to the behavior of markets, but ties it all together with the study of price. This conversation was a real treat for me personally. I think you'll get a lot from this one!
Sentiment is one of the most important tools we have as Technicians. There is a lot of data out there and I think Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader.com does the best job of compiling it all and making it available for both professional and retail investors. I particularly like how Jason is self-aware of the pros and cons when it comes to analyzing sentiment. I think our discussion clears up some of the misconceptions and we go into detail about how to use it and when to take advantage of certain extremes. This was a real treat for me as I have personally been a subscriber for almost a decade.
Jonathan Krinsky is a great compliment to the guests we have already had on Technical Analysis Radio. His Intermarket and top/down approach is very well rounded and consistent. In this podcast episode, Jonathan explains how his mentor Phil Roth helped point him in the right direction earlier in his career, particularly during the 2008 Financial crisis. In this discussion we talk about US and Global Stocks, Interest Rates, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil. Sectors mentioned include Financials, Technology, Biotechnology and Energy. I really enjoyed this conversation!
Peter Brandt has successfully traded in 5 different decades using classic Technical Analysis principles that date back to the 1930s and 40s. In this conversation Peter goes over his selection process and strict risk management procedures. With a primary goal of capital preservation, Peter uses the leverage available in the futures and forex markets to position himself into low risk opportunities that also offer a high reward. We talk about the current environment for Stocks, Interest Rates and Commodities. Within the futures and forex space, Peter discusses his current outlook on Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Canadian Dollar and Agriculture-related assets like Soybean Meal, Wheat and Sugar. In this podcast episode, Peter shares with us how he uses the Commitment of Traders report to supplement what he is seeing in the behavior of price. We are lucky to have almost a full hour with one of the best traders I know!
Brian Shannon is one of the first Technicians that I ever followed. I used to watch his YouTube videos as far back as 2006. Brian is a pioneer in Technical Analysis in the Social Media era. His book Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes is one of the most important books I've ever read. In this episode @alphatrends walks us through his multi-timeframe approach and how that can be incorporated into your process regardless of time horizon. We discuss the current U.S. Stock Market environment including price behavior and sentiment. Since Brian is one of the highest authorities on the subject of Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) we couldn't help ourselves but get into the subject at length. This was a great conversation with someone who has been a mentor to a lot of us over many years.
Chris Verrone is a Partner at Strategas Research. Over the years his work has inspired me in several ways and we discuss that in this episode. Chris gives us his take on the US Stock Market, Interest Rates, Gold, Copper and other Base Metals. We talk about the importance of the Industrial Sector as a gauge for the direction of the S&P500. This was a great conversation with a really smart Technician.
Ari Wald is the Head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer. He is without question one of the best Technicians in today's markets. We're lucky we got a full hour with Ari. He walks us through his process and then discusses how he is applying his methods to today's markets. We talk about U.S. and foreign stocks, interest rates, Crude Oil, Gold and the US Dollar. This was awesome!
The Allstarcharts Podcast on Technical Analysis Radio is a series of interviews with the best Technical Analysts in the world. While host JC Parets does discuss process and philosophy with each guest, Technical Analysis Radio is designed to get real time perspective on current market conditions from the most important minds in the business.
The Allstarcharts Podcast on Technical Analysis Radio is a series of interviews with the best Technical Analysts in the world. While host JC Parets does discuss process and philosophy with each guest, Technical Analysis Radio is designed to get real time perspective on current market conditions from the most important minds in the business.