Ballot to Talk About: Recent Episodes
Sam Rippon and Chern Han Mah
An international politics podcast discussing elections and political events around the world. Each episode will discuss upcoming elections and offer insights into significant events.
Sam and Chern look back at results from two recent large General Elections in Mexico and India. In Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become their first female President, but how was she able to oversee such a commanding victory for the governing Morena Party across the board? Was it a failure of opposition, or was it evidence of the popularity of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador? In India, Narendra Modi’s NDA failed to get the 400 seats they were aiming for and actually fell backwards. Why was it such a polling miss? Why did voters turn away from the BJP? And can Congress/INDIA take credit for a successful campaign? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern preview the upcoming UK General Election, focussing on constituencies and campaigns across England and Wales. What are the seats to watch on election night, and where will this election be won and lost? Why have the polls changed so dramatically in the five years since the 2019 General Election? How will Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer feel after the first full week of campaigning? And which Cabinet Ministers could be contenders for 2024’s ‘Portillo Moment’? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern break down results from three Spanish autonomous communities that have been to the polls in the first half of 2024: Galicia, Basque and Catalonia. As regionalist parties demonstrate their strength, how will these results affect the federal Sanchez government? Why has Catalonia not elected a pro-independence parliament for the first time in over 40 years? Why did the Socialists perform significantly better in Catalonia than Galicia just 3 months prior? What do these elections tell us about the state of Spanish politics? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from the recent General Elections in Panama and in North Macedonia. In Panama, José Raúl Mulino has won the presidency but has fallen well short of a majority for his Realizing Goals party in the National Assembly. Why did the opposition do so well, and was it more of a vote against the incumbents? In North Macedonia, will the VMRO and Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova victory stall the EU accession negotiations? Why did the opposition perform so well here too? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern dissect the results from the 2024 set of UK local elections in the final electoral test before the expected General Election later this year. The Conservatives suffered almost 500 Council seat losses, and only managed to win one of the mayoralties up for grabs (Tees Valley), so can the party turn it around in the run up to the General Election? As Labour celebrate big wins and a close contest in the West Midlands, can anything stop a Labour majority? And can the Greens and Liberal Democrats convert local successes into seats at Westminster? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look ahead to the mammoth General Election that is already underway in India to elect the 18th Lok Sabha. Narendra Modi looks poised to win a third term as Prime Minister and a third successive majority for his BJP, but what is the key to his enduring electoral appeal? Why has Congress been unable to make any significant inroads into the BJP’s dominance? In which states will this election be won and lost? And is Modi’s 400-seat objective achievable? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from the recent General Election in Croatia and look ahead to the upcoming electoral contest in South Africa. In Croatia, Andrej Plenković’s HDZ have topped the polls again, but will need to find some allies to remain in Government. Why have the HDZ been so dominant in Croatian politics, and why have they fallen back this time? Why was the SDP and Zoran Milanovic unable to oust the HDZ? And what issues dominated the campaign? In South Africa, why do the ANC look likely to fall short of an overall majority for the first time since the end of Apartheid? What impact will Jacob Zuma have on this contest? And why have the Democratic Alliance so far been unable to capitalise on ANC setbacks? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from the recent state election in Tasmania, Australia, and the parliamentary election in South Korea. In Tasmania, Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals won a historic fourth term, but what will be the consequences of losing their overall majority? Did the change in National Assembly make-up make a big difference? Should Labor be disappointed, and was Rebecca White a personal drag on the campaign? In South Korea, will a repeat Democratic Party landslide be a big problem for President Yoon Suk Yeol? How did the Opposition pull off such a big result again? And why were Green Onions such a big campaign feature? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from Portugal’s General Election and look ahead to next week’s state election in Tasmania, Australia. In Portugal, Luis Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance topped the polls, but have a difficult decision to make in finding a governing partner. What will the eventual government look like, and will Chega play a formal role in it? Did the Socialists overperform, and why did the Democratic Alliance fail to fully capitalise on Socialist dysfunction? In Tasmania, the Liberals are eyeing up a fourth term, but will the change in overall legislative seat count make that a tricky objective? Is it third time lucky for Rebecca White and the Labor Party? And what will be the role of Independents in the election results and government formation? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from Indonesia’s General Election and look ahead to next week’s snap parliamentary election in Portugal. In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto has won a commanding victory in one round, but what motivated this big victory? Did Jokowi’s tacit endorsement make the difference? And why was there a disparity between the presidential and legislative election results as things stand? In Portugal, why are voters back at the polls just two years after the Socialist majority was obtained? What will the role of Chega be, and are they heading into government? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look back on results from the contestedGeneral Election in Pakistan and the presidential election in Finland. In Pakistan, despite Imran Khan’s prison sentence and PTI’s legal setbacks, PTI-backed candidates have topped the polls in a plurality of seats. What will the eventual Government look like? What is next for the PTI-backed candidates as they head into Opposition? And will the likely marriage of convenience coalition survive? In Finland, how did comeback kid Alexander Stubb beat Pekka Haavisto? What issues were on the line? And why did the Presidency take on more significance in the wake of Finland’s NATO accession? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern dive into results from the first two primary contests in the US presidential election, and preview the upcoming General Election in Indonesia. In the US, is a Biden-Trump rematch now inevitable, and is the primary season finished before it even really got started? Is there a viable path left for Nikki Haley? And are there any signs for concern for Donald Trump as he emerges from this contested primary? In Indonesia, what is Joko Widodo’s legacy as he vacates the presidency? Why is Prabowo Subianto the favourite heading into the Valentine’s Day poll? And why is Jokowi seemingly backing an opposition candidate above his own party? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern look at results from Taiwan’s elections as the first electoral event of 2024, and comment on recent electoral events in Bangladesh. In Taiwan, how did Lai Ching-te win a third consecutive presidential term for the DPP? Given the strength of the third candidate, did the Opposition miss an opportunity to recapture the presidency? Why did Kuomintang do much better in the legislative elections? And given Beijing’s attention on this election, what will be the potential geopolitical consequences? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks ahead to the year 2024 in politics and elections, discussing the polls to look out for and the themes we might be talking about as the year rolls on. 2024 is a huge year for democracy, with 75% of the world’s democracies and 50% of the global population going to the ballot box. Amongst others, the US, the UK, India, Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa will all be holding national elections. This week, Sam and Chern preview the electoral calendar, picking out some highlights and previewing some stories that are likely to define the political year region by region. Will 2024 be a year of change as multiple incumbents look vulnerable heading into this cycle?
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This week’s episode takes a look back at 2023 in politics with Sam and Chern talking through their annual series of awards. What was the most consequential election of the year and the biggest surprise? Did THAT really happen in 2023? Who was the worst politician this year? And which politicians should we be looking out for in 2024 and beyond? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern look at results from six Indian state elections from the second half of 2023, including Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Which are the most significant results from this year? Why is the BJP strong in the North and Congress better-placed in the Southern states? Have any of these results altered the narrative ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha election? And is Modi on track for a historic third term? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern break down the year in UK politics and the state of the Conservative and Labour parties. Have either party’s reshuffles changed the political narrative in the UK? Has Rishi Sunak done anything in 2023 to improve the Conservative chances of victory in the next General Election? Do the 2023 by-election results indicate an inevitable Labour victory? And has the SNP hegemony in Scotland come to an end? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern break down results from this week’s elections in Argentina and the Netherlands. In Argentina, how did Javier Milei comfortably defeat Sergio Massa for the presidency? How will Milei overcome a lack of a majority in Congress? And how will Argentina’s allies work with Milei? In the Netherlands, what will the eventual Government look like following the PVV’s win? How did Geert Wilders manage to top the polls for the first time, and can he become Prime Minister? And as Timmermans, Omtzigt and Yeşilgöz-Zegerius plot their next move, who is the biggest loser after this tight campaign? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern break down the year in US politics and the recent off-year electoral cycle. After a few weeks of three gubernatorial races, state legislatives contests and Ohio ballot initiatives, were there any big surprises? How did Democrat Andy Beshear win re-election in a strong Republican state on the federal level? Why did Glenn Youngkin fail to win a Republican trifecta? And after another strong pro-choice vote in the Ohio referendum, will that issue continue to boost Democratic turnout as they head into 2024? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern break down results from two recent presidential elections in South America – one in Ecuador and the other in Argentina. In Ecuador, how did Daniel Noboa defeat the Correa-backed Luisa González? And can Ecuador’s youngest President turn around their fortunes in just eighteen months? In Argentina, how did Sergio Massa outperform polling expectations to win the first round? Can Javier Milei rally the Opposition to defeat the incumbent Peronists? And what should we expect ahead of the second round later this month? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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Sam and Chern break down results from two recent parliamentary elections – one in New Zealand and the other in Poland. In New Zealand, how did Christopher Luxon’s National Party overturn Labour’s majority? Will they need to negotiate with Winston Peters and NZF as well as ACT? And what is next for Chris Hipkins and the Labour Party? In Poland’s consequential election, how did the Tusk-ledOpposition prevent a third term for the Law and Justice Party? What comes next? And can the three Opposition parties create a workable coalition agreement? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern discuss results from recent elections in theGerman states of Hesse, Bremen and Bavaria, and Luxembourg’s parliamentary election. Why did the SPD do much better in Bremen than their poor showings in Hesse and Bavaria? Why did all federal coalition parties lose ground against incumbent CSU/CDU Governments? And what impact will this have on the federal coalition? In Luxembourg, why is the CSV returning to power after a decade? Why did the Green Party do so badly relative to other coalition parties? And what coalition option will CSV pursue? Will Xavier Bettel be back in Government but not as PM? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern discuss the results from Slovakia’s parliamentary election and from the provincial election in Manitoba, Canada. In Slovakia, how did Robert Fico’s Smer party win the tight election? Why did Peter Pellegrini take Hlas into a Smer-led coalition? And what will the impact of Fico’s premiership be on Slovakian domestic and foreign policy? In Manitoba, how did the NDP prevent a ProgressiveConservative third term? Was it Heather Stefanson’s loss, or Kinew’s win? And what are the federal implications? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern discuss the state of federal politics in Canada and look ahead to the upcoming Indigenous Voice Referendum in Australia. What are the notable appointments in Trudeau’s reshuffle? Will the scale of the reshuffle help to reverse the declining fortunes of the Liberals? And what, if any, will be the impact of the Speaker resignation and the Indian diplomatic dispute? And in Australia, how has the ‘No’ campaign taken the lead in the Voice referendum after a period of ‘Yes’ lead? How has the Liberals’ side of the argument seemingly won the debate, despite Labor still leading the polls? And can ‘Yes’ turn it around in the final two weeks? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern preview two upcoming elections on opposite sides of the globe in New Zealand and Poland. In New Zealand, how has Labour gone from a triumphant majority to at real risk of falling out of office in just one term? How has Christopher Luxon transformed the fortunes of the National Party, and what is the state of Labour under Chris Hipkins? In Poland, is the Law and Justice Party poised for an unprecedented third term? Can Donald Tusk overcome poor personal ratings to return the opposition to power? And why is this election so significant to the European Union? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern preview two upcoming snap European elections, one in Slovakia and the other in the Netherlands. How did both of these countries end up with early elections? With their fourth Prime Minister in three and a half years, Slovakia is heading for an early parliamentary election with the return of former Prime Minister Robert Fico on the cards. Who are the main contenders to take over the Slovakian premiership and what are the potential geopolitical consequences? And in the Netherlands, as Mark Rutte’s tenure as the longest serving Dutch Prime Ministerends, what is his legacy? And which parties are poised to benefit from his departure? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern turn their attention to Latin America and two presidential elections – the concluded two rounds in Guatemala and the upcoming second round in Ecuador. Bernardo Arévalo became the surprise winner in Guatemala, but how did he overcome the institutional opposition? And why did three-time runner-up Sandra Torres fail to cross the line again? In Ecuador, as Daniel Noboa and Luisa Gonzalez prepare for an October run-off, who is best placed to win? And why is Ecuador in election mode two years ahead of schedule? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from Spain's July General Election and look ahead to what's to come in the rest of the 2023 electoral calendar. Is Pedro Sanchez now the favourite to form the next Spanish Government? What happened since the Autonomous Community elections to change the Peoples Party fortunes so significantly? What's next for Alberto Feijoo, and who are the winners and losers? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week Sam and Chern discuss the 2022-23 term of the US Supreme Court and some of the most consequential decisions made. How can the Roberts Court be assessed relative to the last term that saw the momentous Dobbs vs Jackson ruling? What are some of the most important and interesting cases? Is this Court a truly Conservative one? And why are the Republican-appointees so seemingly split on voting rights cases?
As we reach the halfway point in 2023, Sam and Chern also look back on the first half of the year in politics. What have been the most interesting and consequential elections so far? And what lies in store for the remainder of 2023? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from the two recent Greek parliamentary elections that saw the re-election of Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ New Democracy party in emphatic style. Despite comfortably topping the polls in May, why did Mitsotakis trigger an immediate re-run of the election? And how did New Democracy overcome the various scandals and policy issues plaguing them in the last term? What’s next for Aléxis Tsípras, Syriza and PASOK as they contest to be the main left-wing opposition in Greece? And why did this election see the entry of three far-right parties into the Hellenic Parliament? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week Sam and Chern discuss recent electoral results in Montenegro before diving into the early days of the 2024 Republican presidential primary in the US. In Montenegro, what has motivated opposition wins in the presidential and parliamentary elections this year? What has caused the dramatic fall in support for long-term leader Milo Đukanović? And what will the eventual Government look like after Jakov Milatovic's Europe Now fell short of a majority?
In the US, despite Iowa being 8 months away, the Republican primary is beginning to heat up, but is Donald Trump’s win already inevitable? This podcast unpacks the state of the race and the other runners and riders. Is Ron DeSantis still the best-positioned candidate to win if Donald Trump falters? What other US elections are to look forward to in 2023? And why was Janet Protasiewicz’s win in Wisconsin so significant? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from the mammoth set of regional elections in Spain last month and look ahead to the surprise snap General Election in July. Why did the Peoples Party do so well across the Spanish Autonomous Communities? Did the Socialist Party have a worse than expected night? Why did Pedro Sanchez call a snap election in the wake of widespread losses? What will be the impact of the fractious Sumar alliance? And is Alberto Núñez Feijóo the favourite to be Spain’s next Prime Minister? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week Sam and Chern discuss results from the second round of Turkey’s presidential election, and the provincial election in Alberta, Canada. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won another five year term following his first ever run-off election, but after the results of the first round, was this inevitable? How did Erdoğan win? What’s next for the Opposition and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as they head into the 2024 local elections? And what might the democratic consequences be?
In Alberta, Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives, despite losing seats, have obtained another majority, but the NDP will form the largest opposition in Albertan history. Why was this election so close, and which party has the most to be pleased about? In Canada’s most conservative province, are the Conservatives just too difficult to beat? And what will be the federal implications? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week Sam and Chern discuss results from the local elections in Northern Ireland and the new Cabinet in Queensland, Australia. With an election expected late next year, Anastasia Palaszczuk has reshuffled her team in an attempt to reset her government. What are the notable appointments? Will it provide the reset she is looking for? And is it an admission that the government has been struggling recently?
In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein has become the largest party in local government for the first time, but where are their new votes coming from? Do these resultsmake the restoration of government at Stormont more or less likely? Are the UUP and SDLP in terminal decline? And have the DUP received an endorsement of their continued boycott despite the nationalist surge? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week Sam and Chern discuss results from two elections last week – the first round of Turkey’s presidential election, and the momentous parliamentaryelection in Thailand. As Pita Limjaroenrat seeks to amass the necessary votes to become Prime Minister, Thailand is on the verge of significant societal and political change. Why did Pheu Thai and the Sinawatras fail to top the polls after strong opinion poll results? What motivated the surge in Move Forward support? And what lies ahead for the military and royalist bloc in Thailand?
As Turkish voters prepare to return to the polls for the second round of their presidential election, this podcast discusses whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds an insurmountable lead. Why did Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu underperform relative to opinion polls, and was his candidacy flawed from the beginning? What could explain the long term strength of Erdoğan? And what will the second round have in store? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week Sam and Chern look at results from Paraguay’s recent Presidential Election and looks ahead to this month’s bumper day of Regional Elections in Spain. Santiago Peña won the presidency to continue the dominance of the Colorado Party, but why did this buck the recent trend in South America? And why do the Opposition continue to struggle to stop the Colorado Party success?
As Spain prepares for 12 of its autonomous communities to go to the polls, this week also pinpoints some of the key races to watch ahead of a Winter GeneralElection. Will the right take over in Valencia and Aragon? How are regionalist parties faring in Cantabria? And will the Citizens Party collapse help the Peoples Party across the board? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from last week’s English Local Elections. As the Conservative Party reels from 1000+ seat losses, is Labour on track for power in 2024? Which Council results best summarise the state of national politics? Are the Liberal Democrat results indicative of big results to come in a General Election? And how should both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak respond to this latest electoral test? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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Sam and Chern look back at results from Finland’s parliamentary election earlier this month. As the tenure of Finland’s youngest Prime Minister comes to an end with Sanna Marin preparing to leave office, how did the National Coalition win the election? Why were Marin’s coalition partners unable to perform well enough to keep them in Office? And as Petteri Orpo begins coalition talks, how likely is a right-wing Government formally including the populist Finns to form? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week’s episode looks back on results from two state elections: Prince Edward Island, Canada and New South Wales, Australia. In Prince Edward Island, Dennis King’s Progressive Conservatives put in a dominant performance to retain Office. How did they win such a decisive victory? And despite reclaiming Official Opposition status, how can the Liberals regroup and become competitive again?
In New South Wales, there was a change in Government, ensuring that Labor is governing all mainland states in Australia simultaneously for only the secondtime. How did Chris Minns succeed in the race to become Premier? And will Labor be disappointed to miss out on a majority? What’s next for the Liberals and where will their next leader come from? Why were the Teals unable to replicate their federal successes? And after NSW and the Aston by-election, what will be the federal implications for Liberal Leader Peter Dutton? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode looks at the election of Humza Yousaf as the new leader of the Scottish National Party and the legacy of Nicola Sturgeon. Sam and Chern unpack the results, and discuss what may be next for the SNP as they begin a period without Salmond or Sturgeon at the helm for the first time in 20 years. How did Humza Yousaf win the election? And how did he fend off close rival Kate Forbes? What will be the legacy of Nicola Sturgeon as she leaves frontline Scottish politics? And what is next for the SNP as their poll ratings suffer a short-term slump? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week’s episode looks ahead to next week’s New South Wales State Election which sees the incumbent Coalition Government looking to win a fourth term in office. As Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns enter their first campaigns as leaders of the Liberal and Labor parties, Sam and Chern unpack the campaign so far and look at where in the state this race will be won or lost. What have been the main themes of this campaign? Who are Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns? With both parties needing to gain seats to form a majority, what does the route to a fourth Coalition term look like? And why is this race so close? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week’s episode looks at results from Nigeria’s Presidential Election and last weekend’s parliamentary election in Estonia. Bola Tinubu came out victorious in Nigeria, extending the APC’s rule, but the campaign was dominated by a three-candidate contest and the surge of support for Labour Party candidate Peter Obi. What motivated Bola Tinubu’s victory? What was the driver of Peter Obi’s unlikely candidacy? What role does religion and ethnicity play in Nigerian elections? And amidst the challenges to the results, what is next for Africa’s largest democracy?
As incumbent Prime Minister Kaja Kallas reflects on the big victory for her Reform Party, Sam and Chern also unpack the results from Estonia. What were some of the reasons behind Kallas’s commanding performance? What role did Ukraine policy play in this election? Why did the Conservatives marginally underperform the polls and the Centre Party fall behind? And what will the eventual government look like? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode looks at results from two sets of state elections – the German capital of Berlin and the three Northeastern Indian states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. Berlin was conducting a court-enforced repeat of its 2021 state election, and the CDU topped the polls for the first time since 1999. How did the CDU manage to make such significant gains? Did the fact it was a rerun impact the headline results? What will the eventual Government look like? And after another disappointing night for the FDP, will they begin to rethink participation in the federal government?
In the three Indian states, it was another good month for the BJP and its allies ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Amidst big wins for regionalist parties, who is the role of national parties in this region of India? And what role do the different demographics play? Has the first round of elections in 2023 continued 2022 national trends? And what can the Congress Party do to turn around their fortunes? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode looks at Rishi Sunak’s minor Cabinet reshuffle, and also at President Joe Biden’s third State of the Union Address. Rishi Sunak has found a replacement to Nadhim Zahawi, but also took the opportunity to restructure the machinery of Government and shake-up his Cabinet. Was this reshuffle surprisingly broad? What will these departmental reconfigurations mean for policy delivery? And what does it say about Sunak’s priorities as the long road to the 2024 General Election begins?
In the US, Joe Biden addressed the newly divided Congress to outline his legislative plans and administrative achievements. What were the key takeaways from this political set piece? Was this Joe Biden doing a soft launch of his re-election campaign? And what is the role of State of the Union Addresses more generally? Do they play an important role? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode looks back at results from the Czech Presidential election, and also unpacks Chris Hipkins’ first Cabinet as New Zealand Prime Minister. In Czechia, Petr Pavel decisively defeated former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, but after the second defeat in a row, is this now game over for the ANO 2011 leader? How did Pavel pull off a decisive victory in the second round? And what will be the geopolitical impact of his win?
In New Zealand, Chris Hipkins has reshuffled the Government in one of his first acts as Prime Minister, so Sam and Chern unpack the appointments and look ahead this year’s General Election. Why was Chris Hipkins elected unopposed as Labor leader? Who are some of the winners and losers in the reshuffle? How is Christopher Luxon preparing to face Hipkins moving into the election? And what does each party need to do to win? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode looks ahead to the year 2023 in politics and elections, discussing the polls to look out for and the themes we might be talking about as the year rolls on. 2023 has numerous big elections in store in Spain, Argentina, Turkey, New Zealand and Nigeria to name just a few. This week, Sam and Chern preview the electoral calendar, picking out some highlights and previewing some stories that are likely to define the political year region by region. Will 2023 be a year of change as multiple incumbents look vulnerable heading into this cycle? What will be the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War in the neighbouring states of Estonia, Finland and Poland that all have elections this year? And will results in Turkey and Nigeria be as geopolitically significant as initially billed? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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The first episode of 2023 takes a look back at the turbulent US Speaker of the House election and discusses the state of Irish politics as the pre-arranged Taoiseach transition takes place. Kevin McCarthy was finally elected as the next Speaker of the House after nearly 4 days and 15 ballots, making it the longest Speaker election since 1859. How did McCarthy eventually manage to get enough holdouts onside? What does the turbulence say about the present state of the Republican Party? And is this setup and rules package sustainable?
In Ireland, Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martinhave changed jobs, and the Fine Gael/Fianna Fail coalition moves into its second half. Sam and Chern discuss the transfer of responsibility and the state of the Irish parties. Which party is benefitting more from the current governing arrangement? Why did Leo Varadkar opt for a very limited Cabinet reshuffle? What has motivated the growth of Sinn Fein into the poll leader? And can they continue that strength into the next election? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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The last episode of 2022 takes a look back at the recent political turmoil in Peru, and looks back at results from the final Indian state elections of the year. As Peru prepares for its sixth Prime Minister of 2022 and its second President in just over a year, Sam and Chern ask whether the country is governable in the short-term? Can Dina Boluarte turn things around? And what is next for the main players of Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori?
In India, elections in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat produced contrasting results for the BJP and Congress Party, and lay the ground for a competitive 2023. This week’s episode unpacks the two results and looks back on the year in state elections, discussing which of the Indian parties will be celebrating the most. What was the difference between the Gujarat BJP landslide and the tight election in Himachal Pradesh? With 5-2 to the BJP in state elections this year, are they still very well-positioned for the 2024 Lok Sabha election? And what will the role of the AAP be moving forward? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode takes a look at the results from the Georgia Senate run-off election and takes a big look back at 2022 in politics. Raphael Warnock has beaten Herschel Walker in Georgia and wins his first full term as Senator. How did Warnock manage to win his second election in two years? Did the shorter campaign make any difference? Will the 51st Democratic seat make a material difference on Senate procedures? And what will the impact of Kyrsten Sinema’s defection have on the party in the Senate?
Sam and Chern also take a look back at 2022 in politics with their annual series of awards. What was the most consequential election of the year and the biggest surprise? Did THAT really happen in 2022? Who was the worst politician this year? And which politicians should we be looking out for in 2023 and beyond? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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In the 100th episode of Ballot to Talk About, Sam and Chern take a look at the results from last weekend’s state election in Victoria, Australia. Daniel Andrews has led his Labor Party to a third term in decisive fashion over Matthew Guy’s Liberals and concludes a successful year for the Australian Labor Party across the country. How did Labor manage to pull off such a clear win? Did Labor win this election or is it more an indication of Liberal weakness? Why did the Teal Independents fail to make a similar splash to their Victoria results in the federal election? And how will the federal parties view these results and 2022 as a whole? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week’s episode takes a final dive into the results of this year’s US midterm elections as the dust has finally settled. As the party’s come to terms with the results and the divided Congress, Sam and Chern discuss the two party leadership elections and what may lie ahead. Have the Democrats finished in a position that leaves them favoured to retake the House in 2024? What is the legacy of Nancy Pelosi as she departs the Speaker’s Chair? Will Kevin McCarthy face a tough fight to be elected as Speaker? And what will the recently announced Donald Trump candidacy mean for Congressional Republican politics in this narrow majority environment? All these questions and more answered in this episode.
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This week's episode looks back at elections in Israel and looks ahead to the upcoming state election in Victoria, Australia. In Israel’s fifth election in four years, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party looks set to be leading a Government once again. What led to the collapse of the Bennett/Lapid Government? How did Netanyahu win again? And will this new Government manage to stay the course?
In Victoria, as Daniel Andrews goes for a third term for his Labor Government, Sam and Chern break down the campaign and the seats to look out for. How has Andrews’ record in Government been, and how is Victoria expected to react after some of the toughest lockdowns in the world? Can Matthew Guy transform recent Liberal fortunes? And in what districts will this race be won or lost? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This slightly extended episode takes a dive into the results of last week’s US midterm elections, the first electoral test for incumbent President Joe Biden. As the Democrats retain control of the Senate and the Republicans look to be slight favourites to take a narrow majority in the House, Sam and Chern unpack the key races. Was there a national narrative or was this a very localised midterm? Why did the Republicans underperform traditional midterm expectations? What do these results mean for 2024? And do the results suggest that Donald Trump is a strength for the Republicans, or is he becoming a liability? All these questions and more answered in this bonus episode.
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This week's episode looks back at national election results in both Brazil and Denmark. In Brazil, it took two rounds, but former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro to ensure he will enter 2023 as Brazil’s new leader. What were the demographic and geographic keys to Lula’s success? Why was the race much narrower than polls were originally expecting? Will this be the last of Bolsonaro’s career at the frontline of Brazilian politics? And has a “January 6th moment” been averted?
In Denmark, Mette Frederiksen looks set to continue as Danish Prime Minister after leading her Social Democratic Party to another victory, and a narrow majority for the traditional Red Bloc. Sam and Chern unpack the results as a whole and discuss what the new Government might look like. Will the Red Bloc hold, or will a new centrist Government be formed to break that mould? How did Frederiksen avoid the same fate as Magdalena Andersson earlier this year? What role will Rasmussen’s Moderates play after coming third? And what happened to the Venstre vote share? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This special episode takes a deeper dive into the upcoming US midterms, focussing on the race for the Senate and Governor Mansions around the country. Is the race for the Senate truly a toss up? And what races should we be paying close attention to? On the Governor side, can the Democrats hold onto the Mansions they flipped in 2018? And are the races being motivated by state factors or simply following national political trends? All these questions and more answered in this bonus episode.
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This week's episode looks back at the last week in British politics which has resulted in Rishi Sunak replacing Liz Truss as Prime Minister. It also looks ahead to the upcoming midterms in the United States, focussing on the House of Representatives. After just 50 days, Liz Truss has left Office and has been replaced by her former leadership rival Rishi Sunak. What led to her downfall? How did the contest to replace her end up uncontested? And what are the notable appointment in Sunak’s Cabinet?
In the US, the race for control of the House is nearing its end and Republicans look well-placed to take control of the Chamber from the Democrats in just under two weeks’ time. Sam and Chern discuss the topics that have dominated the campaign and take a look at some of the more consequential and interesting districts. Will the economy or abortion play a bigger role in motivating voters ahead of the midterm elections nationally? Were the Democrats always going to struggle to defend such a narrow House majority? Where is control of the House going to be won and lost? And what are some of the most interesting races taking place? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results from last weekend’s state election in Lower Saxony (Germany) and previews the upcoming snap General Election in Denmark. In Lower Saxony, despite a slight fall in their vote, Stephan Weil’s SPD looks likely to begin a third time in Office, but this time with the Greens. In the midst of Scholz’s struggling federal approval ratings, how were the SPD able to pull off this win? How will the FDP react to yet another disappointing state election result? And how might these result affect the coalition on the federal level?
In Denmark, as Mette Frederiksen prepares to face the voters again, Sam and Chern unpack how this election came about and how the main contenders are faring. After the Social Liberals forced this snap election in the first place, will they benefit from that decision, and will they remain aligned with the Red Bloc after polling day? For the Blue Bloc, are the Liberals still the main opposition contender for the premiership, or is Søren Pape Poulsen positioning the Conservatives well to challenge them? And what role with former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen play after election day? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back the results from two elections last weekend – the state election in Quebec and the General Election in Latvia. In Quebec, Francois Legault’s Coalition Avenir Quebec has won a second majority, increasing their seat count in the National Assembly. How did his party achieve such a dominant victory? What next for the Liberals and Parti Quebecois after a disappointing night? Will Quebec Solidaire be disappointed not to have achieved official Opposition status? And how did the Conservatives fail to win a single seat despite a big increase in vote share?
In Latvia, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš looks set to retain the premiership after his New Unity party won the most seats in the Saeima. Sam and Chern unpack the results and discuss the potential government partners for his second term. How did the New Unity party increase their seat count so significantly? Who are the most likely coalition partners – United List or the Progressives? And what happened to the pro-Russian minority Harmony party who will now sit outside of Parliament? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results from last weekend’s snap General Election in Italy which has likely resulted in their first female Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. As Italy prepares for a new right-wing government, Sam and Chern discuss the dynamics of the race and the performance of the main blocs. How were the right able to dominate the election in both Chambers? What demographics propelled the Brothers of Italy to first place? What is next for the Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party as they head back into Opposition? And was this election a disappointment for the Five Star Movement? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks ahead to two upcoming elections in the Americas – the National Assembly election in the Canadian state of Quebec, and the General Election in Brazil. In Quebec, Francois Legault is heading for a second term of majority Government for his Coalition Avenir Quebec party. What has been the key to the party’s rapid rise prior to 2018 and stability since? Why have the Liberals and Party Qeuebcois faded as significant challengers? And why has the Conservative Party been able to emerge as a big factor in this cycle despite never gaining a single seat before?
In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro is attempting to win a second term as a President, but is facing tough opposition from former President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva. Sam and Chern unpack the two main contenders and discuss the dynamics of the race. What have been the main campaign issues? Why has Lula been such an effective candidate to run against the incumbent President? What motivated Bolsonaro’s original rise in 2018? And why is it looking likely he will be defeated this time? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode dissects the results of last weekend’s Swedish General Election and looks ahead to the upcoming parliamentary election in Latvia. In Sweden, Magdalena Andersson has resigned as Prime Minister and it is expected that a new centre-right Government will be forming after their narrow win. What will the eventual government look like, and will the Swedish Democrats be a formal part of it? What went wrong for the Social Democrats? Will Andersson remain as party leader? And where did the surge in Swedish Democrat voters come from?
In Latvia, as voters prepare to elect the 100 members of the new Saeima, Sam and Chern preview the parties competing for the seats and the potential contenders for the new government. Despite hailing from the smallest party in the outgoing Government, will Arthurs Karins continue as Prime Minister after this poll? Why has there been such a high turnover of political parties in recent years? What has been the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on this Baltic State? And why has left-wing politics until recently been limited to Russian minority groups? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode examines Liz Truss’s election as Conservative Party leader and her new Cabinet, as well as previewing the upcoming the Italian General Election. As the UK mourns the loss of Her Majesty the Queen, they are also experiencing the first week of the Liz Truss premiership after she defeated former Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Who are some of the notable Cabinet appointments? What do the Cabinet appointments suggest about how her Government will differ from Boris Johnson’s? And how will the seismic royal news in the last week affect her Government agenda?
In Italy, voters will be heading to the polls in a few weeks time for a snap election after the collapse of the technocratic Draghi Government. Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party look set to win the election and form a right-wing government with their alliance partners, but Sam and Chern analyse the campaign and other involved parties. What has been behind the meteoric rise of the Brothers of Italy? And was this at the expense of The League? Why are the Five Star Movement projected to fall to fourth after winning the 2018 General Election? And why are the centre-left not a big factor this time? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks ahead to this weekend’s Swedish General Election where Magdalena Andersson is hoping to lead her Social Democratic Party to a third term. Sam and Chern assess the chances and campaigns of each of the major parties and discuss what form the eventual government may take after the results come in. Has Andersson been able to revive the fortunes of the once-dominant Social Democrats? Are relations between the left-wing parties cordial enough to form a government and block out the centre-right? Why have the Moderate Party fallen backwards since 2018? And are we about to see the entry of the far-right Swedish Democrats into Government in Sweden for the first time? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks at the ongoing political crisis in Sri Lanka, and takes a closer look at how the race to replace Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister has unfolded. In Sri Lanka, Gotobaya Rajapaska has resigned but the political and economic unrest continues. Can Ranil Wickremesinghe restore trust in the political system and begin to solve their economic woes? What were the origins of these crises and what does the future hold for Sri Lanka? Are there lessons that can be drawn from countries with similar experiences?
In the UK, the race to replace Boris Johnson is entering its final stages as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak face the verdict of Conservative Party members. Sam and Chern unpack the MP ballots and discuss how we got to this face-off. Why did we end up with Truss vs Sunak, and was it always the inevitable final chapter of this contest? Who were the biggest surprises and greatest disappointments in the MP ballots? What issues have defined the Truss-Sunak head-to-head? And which of the former leadership contenders do we expect to feature in the victor’s new Cabinet? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's very special face-to-face episode looks back at last weekend’s Upper House elections in Japan and the downfall of Boris Johnson ahead of his pending resignation as Prime Minister. In Japan, amidst the fallout from Shinzo Abe’s assassination, Fumio Kishida’s LDP and allies now hold super majorities in both houses. Was the assassination a major factor in explaining Kishida’s big triumph? Will Kishida feel emboldened to distance the government from Abenomics? And with these supermajorities, will the LDP now move to amend Japan’s pacifist constitution?
In the UK, Boris Johnson has announced his intention to resign, and the starting gun has been fired on the race to replace him as Prime Minister and Conservative leader. As the race unfolds, Sam and Chern look back on Boris Johnson’s legacy and what led to his removal from office despite his big 2019 election win. What was the straw that broke the camel’s back in terms of Johnson’s premiership coming to an end? Will his legacy in the Conservative Party be positive? Can the Conservative party recover from this dip in the polls and series of by-election defeats? How is the contest to replace Johnson shaping up so far ahead of the members ballot? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode turns Sam and Chern’s attention to the United States, reviewing the 2021-22 term of the Supreme Court and taking an early look at this year’s midterms. As a seismic and consequential term for the Supreme Court comes to an end, this episode discusses the trends of the decisions and the behaviour of the justices. What are the standout rulings? Is it a surprise that the conservative majority have been flexing their muscles so quickly? And is John Roberts still in control of this court?
With midterms looming in November, Sam and Chern look at some of the races to look out for, some of the most significant primaries to have already taken place, and what the potent themes might be. How significant will the Supreme Court rulings be in the November elections? Do the primaries so far suggest that Trump still has a grip on the Republican party? And which are the key races that will decide the composition of Congress in the first electoral test of the Biden presidency? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at two European election results – the French legislative assembly and the state election in the Spanish region of Andalusia. Juan Manuel Moreno and his Andalusian Peoples Party won a stunning majority and topped the polls for only the second time. How did the centre-right win in this traditionally leftist region? And now after three consecutive regional disappointments, what impact will this have on Pedro Sanchez’s national Socialist government?
In France, Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance have lost their majority and will have to negotiate with other blocs in the National Assembly. Sam and Chern assess the most likely allies and what this fractured parliament will mean for governance. After pledging to become Prime Minister, will this result be a disappointment for Jean-Luc Melenchon and his NUPES alliance? How did the National Rally vastly outperform polling expectations? And with the slimmest relative majority in modern French political history, will this legislative term last the full 5 years? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks at the new frontbenches in Australia as Albanese’s Cabinet is sworn in, and Peter Dutton begins his tenure as the leader of the Liberal Party. Sam and Chern dissect appointments and look into what portfolios suggest about the policy focus of the two parties. Were there any surprises in Albanese’s Cabinet? Will they regret their selection mistakes in Fowler after they lost their Home Affairs Minister Kristina Keneally? What do Peter Dutton’s appointments suggest about his policy direction as leader of the Liberals? Why did the Nationals remove Barnaby Joyce as leader despite retaining their caucus in the election? And what are the battle lines to watch out for as this term begins? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode primarily dives into the election results in Canada’s most populous province Ontario, as Doug Ford has led his Progressive Conservative Party to a second consecutive majority in Queens Park. It also features a dissection of the first round of Colombia’s presidential election. As Gustavo Petro and Rudolfo Hernandez prepare to face each other in the second round, who is better positioned to win the support of eliminated candidates? Will Petro become Colombia’s first left-wing President, or will Hernandez become one of its oldest?
In Ontario, the Progressive Conservatives improved on their 2018 result and ensure that Doug Ford will remain Premier for the foreseeable future. Sam and Chern analyse the results and discuss the fate of the NDP and Liberals who are both seeking new leaders as they begin a soul search. What were the key ingredients to Doug Ford’s big victory? Have the NDP reached their natural ceiling of support in Canada’s most populous province? What can the Liberals do to make a comeback and restore party status? And what are the federal implications for Trudeau’s Liberal Government and the federal Conservatives as their leadership election continues? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results of last weekend’s Australian federal election where Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party has unseated the incumbent government led by Scott Morrison. As Labor celebrate their first election win since 2007, Sam and Chern dissect where the victory came from and whether it truly is a cause for triumphant celebration for the party. What were the ingredients to Labor’s win, and how did they avoid a similar fate to 2019? Who posed the biggest problem to the Coalition: Labor or the Teal Independents? Do the election results demonstrate shifting demographic sands in Australian politics? And as the Greens pick up 3 extra seats, is Australia becoming a broader multi-party system? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at results from two German state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein which have both been convincingly won by the CDU. In Schleswig-Holstein, Merkel’s old party fell just one seat short of an overall majority and they are in pole position to form a centre-right Government in Germany’s most populous state as well. Sam and Chern dissect the results and discuss what the federal implications might be for Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition. Were the results a retaliation for the Government’s slow and hesitant response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Are the Greens back in a position to dislodge the SPD in opinion polls? Will the results breed discontent in the FDP about their membership of the federal coalition? And are the CDU back on track after their lowest ebb last Autumn? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks ahead to next week’s Australian federal election where Scott Morrison is hoping to take the Coalition into a fourth term and a decade in power. After the 2019 shock result, Anthony Albanese is hoping that his Labor Party’s polling lead can be reflected in the eventual result. Sam and Chern assess the chances of each party, the seats to watch, and the potential impact of third-party candidates and independents. Do the ingredients exist for yet another Coalition upset victory on polling day? How severe is the threat to Scott Morrison’s party from the Climate 200 Teal independents? Can Albanese lead his party into power? And where is the election going to be won or lost? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at results from across the UK, at both local elections in England, Scotland and Wales, and the Assembly election in Northern Ireland. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein have topped the polls and seat count, becoming the first nationalist party to do so in Northern Ireland’s history but doubts remain over whether a new executive can be formed. Why was Sinn Fein able to do so well? What was behind the dramatic fall of the DUP, and will they be able to recover? Is the surge of the Alliance Party likely to lead to institutional change to better support an unaligned bloc? And the key question – will government return to Stormont after these results?
Across the rest of the UK, the local elections were a bad night for Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party as they look to recover from the partygate scandal and emerging cost of living crisis. However, were they completely good news for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party who are looking to benefit from Conservative troubles and put themselves in a good position to lead the government in the next few years. Who are the biggest winners and losers from these local elections? Are the Lib Dems showing signs of recovery after the 2015 drubbing, and will they challenge Conservative MPs in the South of England? And do these results show any signs that Labour is recovering in their former heartlands? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's slightly extended episode looks both back at results from two elections in Europe last weekend – parliamentary elections in Slovenia and the second round of France’s presidential election. In Slovenia, Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement pulled off an astonishing victory, winning the highest seat total since the country’s independence. How did the party win an election, despite only forming four months ago? What difficulties await them in Government? And who are the potential government partners as they set to under Janek Jansa’s democratic backslide?
In France, as Emmanuel Macron prepares to be the first incumbent President to be inaugurated again in 20 years, Sam and Chern look at whether this election was always a foregone conclusion. Did Marine Le Pen miss an opportunity, or was this race never really winnable? Did Macron win on merit or just because he wasn’t Le Pen? Where did Melenchon voters end up going? And as parties now gear up for the legislative elections in June, which parties are the best-positioned? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results from the first round of the French Presidential election which will see Emmanuel Macron face Marine Le Pen for the presidency for the second consecutive election. It also features a breakdown of the recent constitutional crisis in Pakistan which resulted in Imran Khan’s ousting as Prime Minister. Why did he lose the support of coalition allies? And will this be the end of his political career, or will the expected 2023 general election see a comeback?
In France, Jean-Luc Melenchon narrowly missed out on advancing to the second round in a first poll that saw the Republican and Socialist candidates come 5thand 9th respectively. Sam and Chern break down the results of the first round, focussing on the candidates who failed to advance. How did Valerie Pecresse’s campaign go so wrong after a seemingly strong start? Are the Republican and Socialist brands damaged beyond repair? Where will Jean-Luc Melenchon’s supporters go in the second round? And why did Eric Zemmour underperform early expectations? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks both back at results from two elections in Eastern Europe last week – presidential and parliamentary elections in Serbia and the legislative elections in Hungary. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic has easily won re-election as Serbian President, alongside his SNS party winning a plurality of seats in Parliament. What is the key to Vucic’s significant popularity? What has been the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the campaign there? And what can the Opposition do to become more of a force?
In Hungary, as Viktor Orban wins a fourth successive term as Prime Minister, Sam and Chern assess his consolidation of power and what went wrong for the united opposition. Was it a mistake for the Opposition to unite, and were they ultimately incapable of presenting a united front? Are institutional reasons alone the key to Orban’s continued success? And what lessons can be drawn from these two election results in Eastern Europe? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks both back at results from two elections in Europe last week – a regional election in the German state of Saarland and national parliamentary elections in Malta. In Saarland, the SPD won their first outright majority in a state election since Hamburg in 2011 and continues the success of Olaf Scholz after last year’s federal election. How did the SPD pull of such a victory? Does it reflect a Scholz honeymoon period? And will this wave of success carry on into state elections later in the year?
In Malta, the Labour Party has won a third successive majority government, building on their vote share from last time and returning Robert Abela to the premiership. Sam and Chern discuss the potential reasons for this victory and what it means for the Nationalist opposition who will be nearing a decade in opposition. What was the impact of the Daphne Caruana Galizia case on the election? What have been the key ingredients to the continued success of the Labour Party? Do the Nationalists need to reinvent themselves to become a party of government once more? And how has Malta been able to sustain a solid two-party system at a time of growing fragmentation around Europe? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results from last weekend’s state election in South Australia where Premier Steven Marshall became the first incumbent Australian leader to be defeated at the ballot box since the beginning of the pandemic. Sam and Chern break down the results and discuss the potential reasons why Peter Malinauskas and his Labor Party was able to pull off such a strong victory. What were the statewide ingredients for this Labor majority? Did we learn anything about the Government in the announcement of the new Cabinet? Why did Steven Marshall fail to win a second term? Is the growing strength of Independents something we will see beyond the borders of South Australia in the upcoming federal election? And how will Scott Morrison react to these results with a federal election just 2 months away? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode takes a look at this year's Indian State elections across Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. Narendra Modi’s BJP has had yet another excellent set of elections in India, winning 4 of the 5 states in question as attention begins to turn towards the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. How did Yogi Adityanath become the first incumbent government in Uttar Pradesh to win re-election in 37 years? Is he now well-positioned to take over from Modi? After a very successful set of results in Punjab, is the AAP set for increased national success in 2024? After yet further declining fortunes, has the Congress Party lost the confidence of voters to be a major player in Indian politics? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results of last weekend’s South Korean presidential election where Yoon Suk-yeol triumphed over Lee Jae-myung. Following the very tight results, Sam and Chern dissect what could have made the difference in the closing days and give Yoon the narrow upper hand. Did Ahn Cheol-soo’s late withdrawal give Yoon the advantage, or was it surprising how few of Ahn’s voters made their way to the Yoon campaign? Conversely did Sim Sang-jung remaining in the race disadvantage Lee and narrowly split the progressive vote? What will the Yoon presidency look like, especially with the context of a Democratic National Assembly? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode looks ahead to the upcoming state election in South Australia where Premier Steven Marshall is looking to win a second term for his Liberal Party. Sam and Chern discuss the state of the campaign and which electorates could decide this race and should be closely watched as election day approaches. Why is Steven Marshall struggling to replicate the Covid electoral bounce that benefitted other state leaders in polls and elections throughout 2021? Why have South Australian Liberals struggled in the past? Unusually for Australian politics, is Peter Malinauskas well-positioned to limit Marshall to one term? And what will the impact of the six Independents who are looking to defend their seats in a few weeks time? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode looks ahead to the upcoming South Korean presidential election where voters will go to the polls to elect Moon Jae-in’s successor. It looks to be a very tight race between Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party – two candidates of very different ideologies and very different economic and political intentions. What will be Moon Jae-in’s legacy as he leaves office? How have the numerous scandals surrounding both candidates affected the race? Have the Primary Election experiences of both Lee and Yoon left their respective parties severely divided? And how will that impact the race on election day? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode looks at results from last weekend’s election in the Spanish autonomous community of Castile and Leon. The incumbent governing Peoples Party had been polling strongly throughout Winter, but failed to replicate those results, falling to their lowest ever vote share. Did Alfonso Fernández Mañueco make a mistake in calling the early election? Why did the Peoples Party fall so short of expectations? Will they go into government with the far-right Vox Party for the first time? And with a General Election a year away and elections coming up this year in Andalucia, how will the Socialists rate their performance in this regional election? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode looks at the results from the first round of the Costa Rican presidential election and at the outcomes of the four by-elections held this weekend in the Australian state of New South Wales. In Costa Rica, the second round will be a battle of the exes as Jose Maria Figueres (former President) and Rodrigo Chaves (former Finance Minister) will face each other for the presidency in April. How did we end up with two Social Democratic candidates in the second round? What explains the total collapse of the Citizens Action Party who lost all of their seats in the Legislative Assembly? Who is more favoured to pick up the voters of the centre-right in the second round in two months’ time?
In New South Wales, whilst three of the four by-elections look to have been retained by the incumbent party, the coastal seat of Bega looks set to be a Labor gain. With a General Election just around the corner and a state-wide election a year away, Sam and Chern assess what the big takeaways for Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition might be. Will Labor be disappointed with just the one pick-up? Should the alarm bells be ringing for Premier Dominic Perrottet? Are there any clues to be taken from these by-elections for how the May national election might play out? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results of the Portuguese legislative election and discusses the recently concluded turbulent contest to succeed Sergio Matterella as Italian President. After initially pledging to stand down and after seven inconclusive ballots of delegates, Mattarella agreed to return as President for a second term after Mario Draghi reached out. Why did he end up being the only consensus candidate? What does it say about the state of Italian politics that no other candidate could receive majority support across the parties? And after expressing an interest in serving as President, could Mario Draghi be transitioning from one office to another after next year’s general election?
In Portugal, Antonio Costa has emerged from the snap legislative election with his first absolute majority and a third term in office for his Socialist Party. As the dust settles, Sam and Chern discuss how the race swung towards the Socialists in the final days and whether they are surprised at the overall result. How did Costa manage to pull off this victory given the narrowing of the polls throughout the campaign? Were the Left Bloc and Communists blamed for this election at the ballot box? How will the Social Democrats respond to their seat count falling and Rui Rio bringing his leadership to an end? And with the rise of CHEGA, is this the beginning of a realignment of the Portuguese party system? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks both backwards and forwards to two of January’s national elections – back at the results of the Barbados General Election and ahead to next week’s Portuguese legislative elections. In Barbados, Mia Mottley has pulled off a second successive total landslide by winning all 30 seats in the House of Assembly – our 2021 Rising Star of the Year kicks of the electoral calendar in remarkable style. How did her BLP pull off this second victory? What will the latest Mottley government look like? Is such complete control of the legislature bad for democracy?
In Portugal, Antonio Costa is fighting a snap election after the failure to pass the state budget – Sam and Chern discuss the state of the race and who the main challengers are. Is the state budget itself the main issue on the campaign trail? Was Costa always at risk after his choice to opt for an informal governing arrangement rather than a left-wing coalition government? Why are the Social Democrats not capitalising on Costa’s political problems, and is Rui Rio’s leadership of the party hanging by a thread? And how has Portugal, until now, evaded a significant far-right presence in their politics? Why now, and why Chega? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week’s episode looks ahead to the year 2022 in politics and elections, discussing the polls to look out for and the themes we might be talking about as the year rolls on. It also features a recap of the Dutch government talks that finally concluded in the last few weeks – Mark Rutte has returned as Prime Minister leading the same coalition, but why did it take so long? Without a majority in the Senate, how might this government get its legislative agenda passed? And what will this new government do differently than the previous one?
2022 has numerous big elections in store in Australia, France, Japan and India to name just a few. This week, Sam and Chern preview the electoral calendar, picking out some highlights and previewing some stories that are likely to define the political year region by region. In the Americas, is it going to prove to be a difficult year for incumbents? Are the US midterms once again going to prove to be challenging for the White House and will Joe Biden’s Democrats lose their majority in both Chambers? Will Indian state elections this year be a big clue to the future of the country beyond Modi? And in Europe, will it be a big hint of the changing fortunes of populists as a moderate centre-left revival begins? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks back at the results from Chile’s presidential election and assesses one of the bigger issues of 2021 in climate change. Gabriel Boric has pulled off a big left-wing victory against Jose Antonio Kast in the second round of the Chilean presidential election, but does the divided Congress mean that he will face a tricky road in passing his desired legislative programme? Why did the left-wing energy of the Constitutional Convention elections reappear in this second round after failing to materialise in the first? Was the increased turnout a big reason for the Boric victory?
The episode also takes a deeper dive into one of the biggest political themes of 2021 – climate change. In the year of COP26 in Glasgow, climate change and policies to combat it has been a theme at the ballot box and on political campaigns, but was it a clincher at the ballot box? Sam and Chern look at whether 2021 was a big year for climate politics or whether it was significantly less important than other issues like the pandemic and the economy. Was COP26 a success? Will climate activists be happy with climate consciousness, or is there still more political work to do? And is climate destined to be a larger issue in 2022 and beyond? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode takes a look at the state of the main UK political parties as 2021 comes to an end, and discusses the results of two recent parliamentary by-elections. The Liberal Democrats have pulled off a big by-election victory in North Shropshire and Boris Johnson is facing numerous scandals surrounding him and his party’s conduct. Amidst this environment, is Boris Johnson going to face an imminent leadership challenge? And is the Conservative Party going into 2022 in a perilous electoral position? If a leadership contest is on the horizon, who is the frontrunner to win it at this stage?
A few weeks on from Keir Starmer’s wide-ranging Shadow Cabinet reshuffle, Sam and Chern also unpack the appointments there and discuss whether Labour is in a favourable position heading into 2022. Who were the biggest appointments in the new Shadow Cabinet and what do they mean for Labour’s short-term future? Should Labour be disappointed with recent by-election results? Will the Labour polling leads carry into 2022, and is the party better positioned than at the start of 2021 to form the next Government? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks to wrap up some of the big stories from across Europe in the last few weeks, including Sweden’s first female Prime Minister, Katrin Jakobsdottir’s return to the Icelandic premiership and Olaf Scholz’s new German government. Magdalena Andersson is back as Swedish Prime Minister for the second time in two weeks, leading a minority government – will this government be stable enough to last 10 months until the next election? What will be the main differences between this and the Löfven government? And in Iceland, why did Jakobsdottir manage to keep her role as Prime Minister despite her party’s losses in the election?
As Angela Merkel’s 16 year tenure as German Chancellor comes to an end, Sam and Chern take a look at the incoming Scholz SPD-FDP-Green government and how this coalition came about. Is it a surprise that the government was formed so quickly? Which party emerged as the big winner in terms of Cabinet portfolios, and are there any clear disagreements potentially on the horizon? Will Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck come into conflict over climate spending, and do their respective huge portfolios set this government up for spending disagreements? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks back on the year 2021 in politics, discussing contenders for the latest prestigious Ballot Talk Awards. After a year of dramatic and consequential elections, Sam and Chern look back at key moments, key figures and key themes that defined the political year and make their picks for the most notable. Which election was the most consequential this year? What result took us most by surprise? Who was the most disappointing politician of the year? And who are the nominees for the biggest award – politician of the year?
The episode also takes a deeper dive into one of the biggest political themes of the year – Covid-19. Few would have guessed this time last year that we would be on the verge of further national lockdowns around the world, but the ongoing pandemic has continued to define political careers and elections. Did the impact of the pandemic evolve, and did it affect different regions in unique ways? Will it continue to dominate electoral cycles into 2022, or will it take on a different role? Is the era of buoyed crisis-managing incumbents officially over? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week's episode looks at the major parties and players who took part in the first round of the Chilean presidential election last week and their legislative elections. Gabriel Boric and Jose Antonio Kast will be going head to head in December in the presidential run-off, as the two traditional left and right blocs, including the party of incumbent President Sebastian Pinera, fall behind and fail to make the final two – this week’s discussion assesses the changing political landscape in Chile and what the run-off might look like in a month’s time.
As the campaign recommences ahead of the presidential second round, Sam and Chern take a look at the political scene in Chile and why the population may have turned to the far-right and far-left in the search for solutions to their economic and political problems. Why did the New Social Pact fail to capitalise on Pinera and the governing coalition’s litany of problems? What provoked the rise of Kast and the far-right so suddenly throughout this campaign? Is Garbiel Boric or Jose Antonio Kast better positioned to pick up the voters of the more moderate groupings in the second round? What has been the impact of the Pinochet legacy on this campaign? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode looks back at the results of two elections held last weekend – Argentina’s legislative midterms and Bulgaria’s third General Election this year. In Argentina, the ruling Frente de Todos coalition had a disappointing night, losing quorum in the Senate and seeing a reduction in their plurality in the Chamber. How will Alberto Fernandez and Christina de Kirchner react to these results? Are Juntos por el Cambio now favourites to win the presidential election in 2023? What will the impact on policymaking be for the next two years? With the rise of Javier Milei’s far-right party and the surge of the Trotskyist left, is Argentina’s party system fragmenting?
In Bulgaria, after their third election this year, won by yet another new political party, the We Continue the Change bloc look set to have the numbers to form a government – do their allies share that will? Will Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev be able to break the political deadlock and put together a governing coalition? Why did Slavi Trifonov’s party lose so much of its support so quickly? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode looks ahead to this weekend’s Argentinian midterm elections, previewing the dynamics of the race and the main two coalitions seeking to control of the National Congress. Alberto Fernandez’s Frente de Todos coalition is potentially facing a difficult polling day whilst Christina Fernandez de Kirchner remains critical in the wings – this week’s discussion dissects this relationship and who holds the strings in the Government.
As Junto por el Cambio eyes up control of the National Congress, Sam and Chern take a look at how these midterms will function and whether the Opposition has the political energy to upset the ruling coalition. Are Argentinian primaries usually a strong indication of party support for the midterms? What is Kirchnerism, and is it at odds with more traditional Peronist values? Is Frente de Todos irreparably fractured over economic policy? How would a divided Government affect policy delivery? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week’s episode assesses recent election results in both Japan and the US, looking back at Japan’s General Election and the off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party has retained a majority in the Diet in a bad night for the Opposition. Has Kishida solidified his place within the LDP? Can the Japanese opposition win under different party banners? Is the Innovation Party a long-term threat on the right of Japanese politics? Will next year’s Upper House elections be competitive?
With Joe Biden’s first electoral test as President around the corner, Sam and Chern look at the state of the race in Virginia and New Jersey where Democrats are defending control of the Governor’s Office in both states. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is eyeing up a return to the office in a very tight race, and Phil Murphy is looking for a second term. Why are these races in seemingly blue states looking to be quite close? Why do Virginia and New Jersey hold their gubernatorial elections in off-years? Is Terry McAuliffe not an effective candidate for the Democrats within Virginia? Is Trump playing a role in these Republican challenges? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks at Justin Trudeau’s new Cabinet in Canada following their September election and looks ahead to next week’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. The new Liberal minority Government in Canada now has a full Cabinet, including numerous big changes and promotions for figures likely to be in the conversation as a future leader when Trudeau steps down? Was this a surprisingly bold reshuffle after failing to win a majority? Will it last a full term? Do we have any clues about Trudeau’s policy priorities from these appointments?
With Joe Biden’s first electoral test as President around the corner, Sam and Chern look at the state of the race in Virginia and New Jersey where Democrats are defending control of the Governor’s Office in both states. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is eyeing up a return to the office in a very tight race, and Phil Murphy is looking for a second term. Why are these races in seemingly blue states looking to be quite close? Why do Virginia and New Jersey hold their gubernatorial elections in off-years? Is Terry McAuliffe not an effective candidate for the Democrats within Virginia? Is Trump playing a role in these Republican challenges? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks back on the recently-concluded Norwegian coalition negotiations and looks ahead to the upcoming Japanese general election. After September’s Storting election, Norway finally has a new government with Jonas Gahr Støre being sworn in as the Prime Minister leading a minority Labour-Centre coalition. Halting hopes for a new Red-Green coalition, why did the Socialist Left withdraw from the negotiations and was it politically-expedient for them to do so? Will this government manage to survive a full term in office? Why did the Centre Party take on large foreign policy roles in the Cabinet?
With Japan’s 100th Prime Minister Fumio Kishida facing a general election in his first month in office, is the LDP heading for another big victory? Yoshihide Suga left the governing party with low approval ratings after an unpopular Olympic Games and troubled Covid record, but Kishida is hoping to revive their fortunes and fend off a collaborating Opposition. Is he capable of reviving their fortunes and weathering a mixed record in the post-Suga era? Does the electoral system protect the LDP from a surprise Halloween loss? Is the Opposition capable of uniting to defeat the historically-dominant LDP when still under different party brands? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week’s episode looks at two leaders who seem to be on their way out, reviewing the surprise loss of Andrej Babis in last weekend’s Czech election and discussing the resignation of Sebastian Kurz as Austrian Chancellor. After the Green Party threatened to abandon the People’s Party if Kurz didn’t resign, Alexander Schallenberg was installed as Chancellor and this phase of Kurz’s career seems to be at an end for now. Will Kurz return as Chancellor? What made the Greens so keen to demand his resignation? And is the opinion poll damage to the Peoples Party reversible?
With the SPOLU alliance and the Pirates and Mayors poised to form a coalition in Czechia, Sam and Chern look at the results of the parliamentary election and the fate of incumbent Prime Minister Andrej Babis. In an abysmal night for the centre-right and Communists, what went wrong for them? Is there any chance of Babis hanging on to the premiership? And what will a SPOLU/Pirates government be like? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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As Gladys Berejiklian leaves office and Andrej Babis fights to defend his, this week’s episode looks at a turbulent week in New South Wales politics and looks ahead to the upcoming Czech Chamber of Deputies elections. After three resignations, New South Wales is looking at three imminent by-elections and, after losing a popular state Premier, the Liberal/National Coalition will be going into the federal election next year and state election in 2023 with two new state leaders. What provoked this slew of resignations? And how will Scott Morrison and Canberra be affected by this week?
With Czech polls still open at the time of recording, Sam and Chern take the opportunity to look at the state of the parties in the Czech Republic as their campaign comes to a close. Andrej Babis and ANO are fighting to hold on to power in Prague as the opposition parties have created large electoral alliances to try and stop them. Has Babis run out of political allies in the Chamber of Deputies? What unites the seemingly broad conservative SPOLU alliance? Why have the Pirate Party been particularly strong in Czechia? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.
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This week's episode looks back at the results of two elections held last weekend in Europe – Iceland’s parliamentary elections and the highly-anticipated federal election in Germany. In Iceland, the incumbent government increased their majority, but the party of Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir slipped backwards. Will she remain Prime Minister? Why did the Progressive Party manage to advance so significantly? And is the Social Democratic Alliance ever going to be able to recover after yet another disappointing set of results?
In Germany, after initial exit polls projected a virtual tie, Olaf Scholz’s SPD ticket looks to have narrowly edged the race to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor, but lengthy coalition negotiations await. Is the traffic light coalition the most likely option and will Merkel still be Chancellor at Christmas? Why did Armin Laschet’s CDU ticket lose so many of its constituency seats? And as the Left so narrowly acquires compensation seats, why did their support collapse so significantly? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode takes a look at the results of last week’s Canadian Federal Election, where Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has retained its minority Government status and the composition of Parliament barely changed. It dives into the various regions and provinces, analysing where the Liberals faltered in their pursuit of a majority and where the Conservatives failed in their quest to make significant in-roads.
As Justin Trudeau looks to start his third administration as Prime Minister, Sam and Chern take a detailed look at the results across Canada. Why did Erin O’Toole’s Conservative Party fail to capitalise on their early momentum in the campaign? Which region was the most problematic for Trudeau in his quest for a majority? Will the NDP be disappointed with a series of missed opportunities? And what next for the Greens after dismal set of results? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This special bonus episode continues our dive into the upcoming German Federal Election, where Germans will be going to the polls to elect the next Bundestag and indicate their preferred successor to Angela Merkel as Chancellor. It provides an update on the state of the race and a special look at the parties who may not be providing the next Chancellor, but who are waiting in the wings to be potential coalition partners – the FDP, the Left and the AfD.
With only a few days left to go, Sam and Chern take a look at the remaining parties as the campaign comes to a close in Germany. After being scorched in 2013, will the FDP be rushing back into Government, and if so, who with? Is the Conservative fear of Left participation in the Government a realistic one? And why have the AfD (the big story from 2017) not been so prominent this time despite strong polling numbers? Finally, as the campaign comes to an end, what are our early reflections on the race? All these questions and more answered in this special episode.
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This week's episode talks all things Scandinavia, looking back at the election results in last week’s Norwegian poll and looking ahead to next weekend’s Icelandic parliamentary elections. In Norway, Erna Solberg’s Conservative coalition was defeated and Jonas Gahr Støre looks set to replace her as Prime Minister, but with whom? The Socialist Left and Centre Party have already begun coalition talks with Labour, but can they put their differences aside? Is this a good result for Labour? And will Stoltenberg’s former Red-Green coalition re-emerge?
With one week to go until Iceland’s parliamentary election, Sam and Chern assess the main players and talk about what is likely to be a turbulent set of results. Katrin Jakobsdóttir is hoping to gain a second term as Prime Minister, but her coalition partners in the Independence Party and Progressive Party could well be eyeing up her position. How did such a broad coalition come about? Are the Progressive Party a true centrist party? What has gone wrong for the Social Democratic alliance since 2013? And why is Iceland a naturally right-leaning democracy? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This special bonus episode continues our dive into the upcoming Canadian Federal Election, where Justin Trudeau is attempting to regain a majority government. It provides an update on the state of the race and a special look at the parties which could cause Trudeu some problems – the Greens and the Bloc Quebecois.
With under a week to go, Sam and Chern take a look at the remaining parties as the campaign comes to a close in Canada. Why has the Bloc experienced such a turbulent series of results in the last decade? What are their expectations this time round? Why have the Greens lost so much momentum? And is Annamie Paul’s leadership in trouble? Finally, as the campaign comes to an end, what is the current state of the race? All these questions and more answered in this special episode.
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The coverage of the manic month of national parliamentary elections continues with a look at the upcoming German federal election, where the German public is searching for the replacement for Angela Merkel as Chancellor. Will it be Olaf Scholz, Armin Laschet or Annalena Baerbock?
With just over two weeks to go until polling day in Germany, Sam and Chern take a look at the runners and riders to succeed Merkel, and the state of the race overall. Olaf Scholz and the SPD have surged into first place in recent weeks, but with all parties struggling to perform well, there is still a long way to go. What has gone wrong for Armin Laschet, and is the CDU struggling to define itself post-Merkel? Has Scholz positioned himself as the continuity candidate? After initial polling surges, why has Baerbock and the Greens fallen behind? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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The coverage of the manic month of national parliamentary elections continues with a look at the upcoming Norwegian parliamentary election, where Erna Solberg is looking to become the first Prime Minister to win three consecutive terms in office. In the Land of the Midnight Sun, who is going to come out on top?
With just over a week to go until polling day in Norway, Sam and Chern take the opportunity to look at the state of the parties as their campaign comes to a close. Erna Solberg’s Conservative party looks set to struggle to hold onto control of the Storting, whilst Jonas Gahr Støre’s historically successful Labour Party is eyeing a return to power for the first time since 2013. How have the Labour Party managed to come first in every single election since 1927? In that environment, how did Solberg manage to form a long-term right-wing government? What political space do the Centre, Liberal and Christian Democratic parties occupy? Why have the Centre Party recently been a reliable ally of the left? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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We are back and getting ready for a huge month of elections all over the world! This week's episode takes a look at the upcoming Canadian Federal Election, triggered in the past few weeks by Justin Trudeau attempting to regain a majority government. It also takes a look at the results from Nova Scotia where Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservative Party pulled off a huge upset in the Canadian province.
Justin Trudeau is seeking a third term in just over three weeks time, so Sam and Chern take the opportunity to look at the state of the parties as they kickstart their campaigns and set out what we might be looking at as the election period goes on. Why has the Liberal Party been the traditional party of government in Canada? What has stalled the momentum Trudeau had heading into this election? How can the Conservatives convert their strong poll numbers into an election victory? Will the NDP ever manage to be a party of government? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.
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This week's episode is all about reshuffles, focussing on major Cabinet reshuffles that have recently taken place in Spain and India. Narendra Modi has expanded his Cabinet once again and has boosted representation of Uttar Pradesh citizens in anticipation of next year’s state elections. Was this reshuffle an admission that the Government has got things wrong? What is the purpose of Amit Shah’s expanded portfolio? Why is the Indian Cabinet so big?
In Spain, Pedro Sanchez has significantly changed his Cabinet, moving some allies and trying to tackle some recent controversies. Will this reshuffle help the party’s floundering opinion poll ratings? Why has the reshuffle happened now, and is the 2017 Catalan referendum still a factor? Do the changes signal a policy shift or is it simply a personnel change? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode focusses on some recent developments in the United States, assessing the closing cases of the 2020-21 Supreme Court session and discussing Eric Adams’ victory in the New York City Democratic Primary. The new Conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court finished the latest session with some rulings on voting rights, non-profit donors and a third look at the Affordable Care Act, but did they flex their new majority as frequently as we would expect? Is the Roberts Court still as incrementalist as it was prior to the newest Trump appointees? What cases are there to look ahead to in the 2021-22 term?
A few weeks on from the results of the New York City primary finally getting published, Sam and Chern take a look at how Eric Adams managed to win this hotly contested race. Why did Andrew Yang fare so badly after starting with the highest name recognition and energy? Why is the position of New York City Mayor so significant? Do the Republicans have any chance of winning the office in November? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's Olympic-themed episode focusses on the politics and parties of Japan, as the cauldron is lit to kickstart the controversial postponed 2020 Games in Tokyo. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Liberal Democratic Party is suffering a backlash for giving the Games the green light, and the new prominent opposition party – the Constitutional Democratic Party – made gains in this month’s Tokyo prefectural elections ahead of an Autumn General Election.
As the Games gets underway, Sam and Chern take a look at why Japan has been dominated by one-party pretty much persistently since 1955 and assess why the various opposition parties have struggled to have a significant impact. Why have the Games been so unpopular in the last twelve months, and will Covid-19 cost Suga his premiership? Why has the prominent opposition party changed so frequently in the last few decades? Is a truly left-wing Government possible in Japan? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode focusses on two elections held last weekend in Eastern Europe – parliamentary elections in Moldova and Bulgaria. In Moldova, recently-elected President Maia Sandu’s PAS triumphed with the largest vote share in Moldovan history, gaining the party’s first ever majority. What has been key to Sandu’s appeal? Is there a route back for the socialist and communist tradition after this overwhelming defeat?
In Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov has once again failed to gain enough seats to form a stable government and continue his premiership, whilst Slavi Trifonov’s There is Such a People Party has won an election for the first time after less than two years in existence. Will Bulgaria be facing a third election this year? Is Boyko Borisov’s role at the top of Bulgarian politics officially over after the second poor election result in three months? Will Slavi Trifonov manage to get some allies to govern after announcing his intention to form a Government alone? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode concludes our European-themed month to mark the postponed 2020 Euros tournament by talking about the parties and politics of one of the finalists - Italy. It also includes an update on Northern Ireland leadership a week on from Jeffrey Donaldson becoming the third DUP leader in two months, and the change of leadership in the Australian National Party, with Barnaby Joyce reclaiming his position as Deputy Prime Minister.
Just a few months on since the formation of the new technocratic government under Mario Draghi, Sam and Chern look at the state of the ever-fluctuating Italian party system, talking about trends which have dominated the national picture in recent years. What has been key to the longevity of Silvio Berlusconi, and to what extent does Forza Italia exist beyond him as an individual? How does Italy have the political space for two far-right parties to be performing well at the same time? What went wrong for Matteo Renzi? What is the ideological position of the Five Star Movement, and are they truly office-seeking by nature? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode continues our European-themed month to mark the postponed 2020 Euros tournament by talking about the parties and politics of France. It also includes analysis of the UK parliamentary by-election results in Batley and Spen where Kim Leadbeater and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party saw off a strong challenge from the Conservatives and George Galloway.
A week on from their 2021 regional elections and just under a year away from France’s next presidential election, this episode takes a look at the state of French politics, where Sam and Chern discuss the likelihood of a 2017 rematch between Macron and Le Pen in next year’s poll. Why did En Marche and the National Rally do so badly in this year’s regional elections? Will Macron be disadvantaged by the poor performance of his party more widely? What has been the key to Marine Le Pen’s success? What contributed to the Socialist Party’s rapid decline? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode continues our European-themed month to mark the postponed 2020 Euros tournament by talking about the parties and politics of Austria. It also includes analysis of the election results in Armenia where Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party once again won a majority in the aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Additionally, it features a review of the Mongolian presidential election from earlier this month.
Two years on from Austria’s last election and nearly eighteen months on from the formation of the Kurz-led Peoples Party and Green coalition, Sam and Chern take a look at the main party blocs in the country and talk about their recent fortunes. Why does Austria traditionally prefer Grand Coalitions? Why have the Peoples Party fortunes varied so much in recent years? Did Sebastian Kurz’s rightward shift help his party? Why did the Green party agree to enter Government with a centre-right group? And why did the Freedom Party emerge as a prominent force before other far-right groups across Europe? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode continues our European-themed month to mark the postponed 2020 Euros tournament by talking about the parties and politics of Finland. It also includes analysis of the election results in Mexico where Lopez Obrador’s MORENA party was denied the supermajority it so craved. Additionally, it features a review of the Chesham and Amersham by-election where the Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Green pulled off a big upset.
Two years on from Finland’s last election and in the week of their latest municipal elections, Sam and Chern take a look at the main party blocs in the country and talk about their recent fortunes. Why have Sanna Marin’s approval ratings not translated into a strong Social Democratic performance in the municipal elections? What are the consequences of Finland having three major governing parties? What has prompted the rise of the far-right Finns Party across the country? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode continues our European-themed month to mark the postponed 2020 Euros tournament by talking about the parties and politics of Belgium. It also includes analysis of the election results in Peru where Pedro Castillo looks like he will become the next President, defeating three-time candidate Keiko Fujimori. Additionally, it features a review of the results in Saxony-Anhalt where the CDU have outperformed polls in a strong result in the final state election before September’s federal election.
Two years on from Belgium’s last election and another long cycle of government formation, Sam and Chern take a look at the main party blocs in Flanders and Wallonia and talk about the unique linguistic divide of Belgian politics. Why does Flanders have a strong nationalist cleavage, whereas Wallonia still sees traditional ideological battles? Why has Wallonia moved towards more left-wing politics whilst Flanders drifts towards the right? And why does Belgium take so long to form their governments after elections? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode kicks of a European-themed month to mark the start of the postponed 2020 Euros tournament by talking about the parties and politics of Denmark. It also includes analysis of the election results in Cyprus where Nicos Anastasiades’ DISY and other pro-solution parties only just scraped a majority of votes. It also features an update from Israel where Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett have agreed to form a government that will oust Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister. 2 years to the day from the election which resulted in Mette Frederiksen forming a government in Denmark, Sam and Chern take a look at the two main party blocs and some of the issues at play. The red bloc has been in government since 2019 and the blue bloc continues to fluctuate with Venstre beginning to slip back behind the Conservatives. What was responsible for the Social Democrats’ success in 2019 and why did they adopt a harsher position on immigration? Why have Venstre’s fortunes changed in recent years? Why is there competition on the far-right and what will this mean for the relative parties’ performance in the next election? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's special extended episode takes a look at this year's Indian State elections across Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, and takes a wider look at the state of the two big Indian parties. It also includes a review of the recent Mark Drakeford and Nicola Sturgeon cabinet reshuffles, as well as the changing of leadership in Northern Ireland's Unionist parties as Arlene Foster prepares to leave her role as First Minister.
As Narendra Modi enters his seventh year as India's Prime Minister and Covid-19 rages on throughout the nation, this month saw the results of this year's state elections and a mixed bag of results for the two largest alliances. Sam and Chern take a detailed look at the results across the five states and territories and then discuss the changing fortunes of the INC and BJP in recent years, as Modi starts to look ahead to the 2024 General Election. Why is Kerala such a fruitful state for Communist parties? Was West Bengal a disappointment for the Modi government and a sign of a small opposition revival? Did Covid have an impact on these results for incumbent governments just as the situation was beginning to worsen? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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In this slightly extended final of a three-part series on the 2021 UK local and regional election results, Sam and Chern take a closer look at the results across England, as the Conservatives continued their assault on the former Red Wall, and romped to victory in the Hartlepool by-election. This episode also takes a look at the aftermath of the state election results in Tasmania in Australia, and the recent by-election result in Upper Hunter which ensured that Gladys Berejiklian retained parity in her New South Wales Assembly.
After gaining over 200 Councillors and 13 Councils, Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is riding high, and the Red Wall continues to crumble. Sam and Chern look at these results in closer detail and talk about what this could mean for British politics going forward, and the ongoing efforts of Sir Keir Starmer to revive the struggling Labour Party. Why was the margin of victory in Hartlepool so wide, and what could this mean for Labour fortunes in surrounding constituencies whenever the next election arrives? Was this evidence of a vaccine boost for the Johnson government, or is it a longer term trend? What went wrong for the Labour Party, and why did Sadiq Khan underperform versus expectations? It was also a good night for the Green Party across England - do they have realistic aspirations to surplant the Liberal Democrats as the UK's third party? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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In the second of a three-part series on the 2021 UK local and regional election results, this episode takes a closer look at the Scottish Parliament results, as the SNP fell just one seat short of a second majority. This episode also takes a look at the removal of Liz Cheney as the House Republican Conference Chair, and what this says about the state of the US Republican Party in the post-Trump age.
Nicola Sturgeon will continue as First Minister after leading her Scottish National Party to 64 seats in the 129 seat Parliament, extending the SNP’s 14 years in power. Sam and Chern look at these results in closer detail and talk about what this could mean for Scottish politics going forward, and the battle for independence. The Conservatives have retained the primary opposition spot equalling their best ever Holyrood performance, but did they have realistic expectations of improving that position? Will the SNP be disappointed with this result? What is the impact of this election on the battle to be granted another independence referendum? Scottish Labour lost seats for the sixth successive time – why did Anas Sarwar’s positive approval ratings not translate into a better performance? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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In the first of a three part series on the 2021 UK local and regional election results this epsiode takes a closer look at the races across Wales, as Labour equals their best ever performance in the Senedd. This episode also reviews the national election results in Albania, where Edi Rama led his party to a third consecutive majority, and last week's regional results in Madrid, where Isabel Diaz Ayuso doubled her Peoples Party's seat count.
As counting completed on Wale's Senedd election, Mark Drakeford looks set to continue as First Minister after leading his Labour Party to 30 seats in the 60 seat Parliament. Sam and Chern look at these results in closer detail, and talk about what this could mean for Welsh politics going forward. The Conservatives have reclaimed the primary opposition spot with their best ever Senedd performance, but was this an underperformance relative to their 2019 General Election result in Wales? Will Mark Drakeford reach out to Jane Dodds (the Liberal Democrats' sole MS) or decide to go it alone in minority? Why did Plaid Cymru do badly relative to their own expectations? Are there lessons to be learnt for Keir Starmer on how to lead the Labour Party? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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In the third and final edition of a three part series previewing the 2021 UK local and regional elections, this epsiode takes a closer look at the races across Scotland, with a focus on the race to control the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood. This episode also reviews the results of this week's Tasmanian state elections in Australia as Peter Gutwein has likely led his Liberal Party to a third succesive majority Government. It also looks at the resignation of Arlene Foster as Northern Ireland's First Minister, and what this change might mean for the future of the DUP and the Northern Ireland governing arrangement more generally.
Covid-19 may be keeping most things under lockdown, but the 2021 UK local and regional election campaign is underway with just four days to go. Scotland will be seeing elections for the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, with Nicola Sturgeon's SNP hoping to gain the two seats they need to reclaim a Holyrood majority Government. Sam and Chern take a look at the state of the race and the aspirations for the three main parties (SNP, Conservatives and Labour), discussing the potential implications for the Union. Will Nicola Sturgeon get the majority Government she craves to be able to increase pressure on Westminster to grant another independence referendum? Will Anas Sarwar or Douglas Ross win out in the competition to lead their parties to second place in this close-run campaign? Will Scottish voters vote tactically to maximise seat counts across the constituency and regional lists? Will the recent scandals around Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings in Westminster have any impact on the willingness of Scottish voters to vote Conservative in this cycle north of the border? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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In the second of a three part series on the 2021 UK local and regional elections, this epsiode takes a closer look at the races across Wales, with a focus on the race to control the Senedd. This episode also previews next week's Tasmanian state elections in Australia, and in the week where two of the top contenders to succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor of Germany were announced, it takes a look at how these choices might affect the race. Annalena Baerbock will lead the Green ticket, hoping to become the youngest Chancellor ever, and the new CDU leader Armin Laschet will lead the charge for the centre-right, edging out Markus Söder who was seen as the potential frontrunner for the job.
Covid-19 may be keeping most things under lockdown, but the 2021 UK local and regional election campaign is underway with just under two weeks to go. Wales will be seeing elections for the 60 seats in the Welsh Parliament, with Labour hoping to form the Senedd's first ever single-party majority Government. Sam and Chern take a look at the state of the race and the aspirations for the three main parties (Labour, Conservatives and Plaid Cymru), discussing what the most likely Government outcomes might be after this unusual Covid-19 campaign. Is Mark Drakeford's high approval rating helping to boost the Labour Party's appeal? Why have the Conservative hopes of taking control of this Parliament faded in the last year? Are Labour in trouble in the Northern rural parts of Wales, and are Plaid Cymru a legitimate threat in the Valleys? What is the most likely eventual Government after the dust settles on this cycle? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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In the first of a three part series on the 2021 UK local and regional elections, this epsiode takes a closer look at the races across England, with a special preview for the parliamentary by-election in Hartlepool. In a week where Guillermo Lasso upset the Correa-backed candidate in Andres Arauz in Ecuador, and Pedro Castillo suprised pundits by topping the polls in Peru, it also includes a review of the presidential elections in Peru and Ecuador, with a few comments on what this might mean for South American politics in general.
Covid-19 may be keeping most things under lockdown, but the 2021 UK local and regional election campaign is underway with just under three weeks to go. England will be seeing elections for seats on 145 Councils and for 13 directly-elected mayors, including the Mayor of London. Sam and Chern take a look at the state of some particular mayoral and council races, as well as discussing the Hartlepool by-election and what results here might tell us about the state of the UK political system more generally. To what extent will these local elections be fought on local issues? How will Keir Starmer fair in his first electoral cycle as Labour leader? Will Boris Johnson and the Conservatives see a vaccine boost? Will the 2019 General Election trends continue and Red Wall Councils become vulnerable for incumbent Labour administrations? All these questions and more answered in this podcast.
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As the UK gears up for the local and regional elections series, this week's episode takes a special look at the one area of the UK not holding elections this cycle - Northern Ireland. It also includes a a review of last week's Bulgarian elections as Boyko Borissov looks to fight for his role as Prime Minister to continue, and it looks at the Biden Cabinet confirmation process, discussing why with the exception of Neera Tanden's position, it was relatively seamless.
Just over one year on from the restoration of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, Sam and Chern take a look this week at the state of politics in the six counties, and the state of the parties that operate there. Amidst a rise in unionist-nationalist tension, this week's episode discusses what makes the region so turblent even 23 years on from the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, and how the party system has transformed as a result of this. Why did Arlene Foster's DUP overtake the UUP as the main unionist party, just as Sinn Fein did to the SDLP on the nationalist side? How much room does a non-sectarian party like Alliance have to grow into? Has the change in leadership from Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness to Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O'Neill helped Sinn Fein grow as a force in Northern Ireland and the Republic? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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In the first of our April UK local elections series, this week's episode takes a look at the state of the main national UK political parties as they prepare to launch their 2021 election campaigns. It also includes a review of Scott Morrison and Mark McGowan's Cabinet reshuffles in Australia, as well as taking a look at the results of the Newfoundland and Labrador state elections over in Canada, as Justin Trudeau mulls over the idea of taking his country back to the polls soon.
Covid-19 may be keeping most things under lockdown, but the 2021 UK local and regional election campaign is about to get underway with just over one month until polling day. Sam and Chern take a look this week at the state of each of the main parties looking ahead to this electoral cycle, and consider what each of the leaders have to gain or lose. Boris Johnson will be facing the first electoral test after his Covid response, and Sir Keir Starmer will be facing his first polling day as leader of the Labour Party. Have Boris Johnson's Covid fortunes improved alongside the vaccine rollout? How has Keir Starmer's first year as leader been? Will both parties be entertaining reshuffles after this cycle is complete? They also look at how smaller parties might be faring in what is usually a fruitful cycle for them locally. All of these questions and more are answered in this week's edition.
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As March election madness comes to an end, this week's episode takes a look at the results of last week's Israeli legislative election where it is currently looking once again difficult for any group to form a stable majority. Benjamin Netanyahu is looking to continue his now 12-year premiership, but the maths is looking challenging, and a potential fifth election in two years looms. It also includes an update on the state of Australian politics, as Liberal-led Governments in both New South Wales and South Australia lose their majorities following significant scandals surrounding Michael Johnsen and Fraser Ellis respectively. In the same month that Switzerland held their latest set of referenda, Sam and Chern also take a look at their unique form of governance and what the policy consequences may be.
Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party is looking ahead to another challenging coalition formation period, as their election leaves no party with a straightforward route to power. Anti-Netanyahu forces failed to gain the numbers in the Knesset to oust him comfortably, and the country is potentially looking at yet another unplanned election. Were there any surprises in the overall results? Which faction is likely to be able to form a Government, if any? What do anti-Netanyahu forces need to do in order to get the numbers to prevent the continuation of his premiership? And the lingering one for all Israelis: Will they be back at the polls again soon? All these questions and more answered in this week's episode.
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March election madness continues! This week's episode takes a look at the results of last week's Dutch General Election where Prime Minister Mark Rutte looks set to lead his VVD back into a coalition Government on the back of national gains for his party and coalition partners. It also includes a preview of next week's Israeli General Election where Benjamin Netanyahu is looking to find a way out of the stalemate that has led to this fourth legislative election in two years. Sam and Chern also look back on the results of the German State elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden Württemberg where Angela Merkel's CDU suffered setbacks ahead of the September federal election.
Mark Rutte is on the verge of becoming the Netherlands' longest-serving Prime Minister as his party looks set to lead coalition negotiations following their victory in last week's election. His VVD party and D66 made gains, whilst the Labor Party failed to improve at all on their poor 2017 performance and Geert Wilders' PVV lost seats to other emerging far-right parties. Why did the Dutch left fail to make any signficant gains in this cycle? Did the child benefit scandal, that led to the resignation of the Government earlier this year, play a role? What are Mark Rutte's coalition options? What role with Mark Rutte play on the European level as he looks set to become Europe's longest serving incumbent by the end of the year? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's edition.
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March election madness continues! This week's episode takes a look at the results of this weekend's Western Australia State elections and the astonishing landslide victory for Mark McGowan's Labor Party, as well as a wider look at the current state of Australian politics. It also looks at some prominent inspirational women leaders in the political sphere in the week that saw International Women's Day. It discusses some trailblazing figures, break-out stars, and themes across the world.
Mark McGowan has led his Labor Party to a record-breaking victory in the state of Western Australia, annihilating Zak Kirkup's Liberal Party and potentially looking at taking full control of both chambers of Parliament. Sam and Chern look at where these results came from, and what they could mean in terms of federal politics and whether Scott Morrison will opt to hold the upcoming federal election this year. Did Mark McGowan only benefit from Covid-19 or were other factors at play? Do the Liberals have the potential to recover within the next few election cycles? Why has the Labor Party nationally not seen a similar boost in support? And the killer question in terms of Australian politics - why does Australia cycle through so many Prime Ministers?
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March election madness has begun! This week's episode takes a look at the upcoming Dutch General Election where Prime Minister Mark Rutte is hoping to lead his VVD party to a fourth straight election win. It also includes a preview of next week's Western Australia State Election and the upcoming elections in Baden Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, where the race to succeed Angela Merkel continues to roll on.
Mark Rutte is potentially on the verge of becoming the Netherlands' longest-serving Prime Minister, his party is poised to win yet another election, and he is likely about to enter into another protracted set of coalition negotiations. With just over a week to go until polling day, Sam and Chern take a look at the state of play, what is at stake, and how the campaign has played out amidst the pandemic. The episode also takes a broader look at some longer-term themes in Dutch politics, including the fall of the PvdA (Labor Party) and extensive fragmentation. How was Mark Rutte managed to survive for such a long time, having experienced multiple scandals and setbacks? What caused the rapid decline of the centre-left? Is the electoral system an asset or curse when it comes to the formation of a stable government?
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This week's episode takes a special deep-dive into Scottish politics in the week that Scottish Labour got a new leader and former First Minister Alex Salmond tesified before the Scottish Parliament inquiry. It also includes a look at broad themes in LGBTQ+ political history as the UK LGBT History Month comes to an end.
Scotland is just two months out from its latest parliamentary election, so Sam and Chern take a look at the state of play in the Scottish party system, assessing where each party is and how their leaders are faring. The Sturgeon-Salmond partnership continues to break down in spectacular public style just as the SNP are looking ahead to regaining a Holyrood majority. Is Nicola Sturgeon's grip on the SNP and Scotland at risk as this saga unfolds? As the Labour Party gets its sixth leader in ten years in Anas Sarwar, and the Conservatives are still trying to work out who they are in a post Ruth Davidson era, they also look at what the Opposition may look like. What is to blame for Scottish Labour's decline? Will Douglas Ross be able to sustain the Davidson momentum from 5 years ago?
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This week's episode takes a special deep-dive into Italian politics in the week it got a new Prime Minister, and discusses just what makes Italy so seemingly politically unstable. It also includes analysis of the election results in Catalonia and Kosovo, as well as a review of the second Donald Trump impeachment trial that resulted in him being acquitted 57-43 by the US Senate.
As Mario Draghi becomes Italy's seventh Prime Minister in 10 years, Sam and Chern look at the events that led to this moment and why Guiseppe Conte ultimately failed to retain his position. The episode also looks more widely at the Italian political system, discussing how the electoral system, the party environment and the political ethos in the country makes premierships more likely to fail. What does a Draghi government represent? How long can it survive? Does the changing electoral system foster unstable governing coalitions? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.
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This week's episode takes a special look at the course and legacy of the Arab Spring, as we reach 10 years on since Hosni Mubarak's removal from power and the height of the upheaval across the region. It also includes analysis of the Swedish Cabinet reshuffle and a review of the Ecuadorian presidential election results, that leave Andres Arauz facing either Yaku Perez or Guillermo Lasso in the second round in April.
In December 2010, a Tunisian market trader lit the flame of revolution across parts of the Arab world, and 10 years on from the toppling of the Egyptian Government, Sam and Chern look back on the Arab Spring and the impact it has had on politics in the region. Tunisia could be viewed as the region's success story, but is it that straight forward? Why did Assad manage to survive all this time in Syria whilst Mubarak fell? How will history view this period? All these questions and more answered in this week's edition!
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This week's episode of this international politics podcast focusses on the newly inaugurated Biden administration as the Cabinet begins to form, and the legislative agends gets underway. It discusses the Biden Cabinet as a whole, and analyses the state of the Democrat party in the aftermath of them taking control of the trifecta. This episode also features a preview of the first round of the Ecuadorian Presidential Election, where Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso are expected to advance to a second round. Chern and Sam look at the region of South America more broadly, and if any themes can be highlighted.
Just over two weeks on from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's inauguration, this episode looks at their Cabinet as Senate confirmations begin to roll in, and specifically talk about the last few nomination announcements - Gina Raimondo, Marty Walsh and Merrick Garland. Will any of Biden's nominees face issues in the Senate confirmation hearings? Why are there no Republicans in Biden's team? As the Democrats look ahead to at least two years in full control, the state of the party is also explored. Will the narrow majorities in Congress help quell ideological divides or embolden them? What will the party look like at the end of the Biden term? Will ideological divisions stall any flagship legislation? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's episode.
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The latest episode of this international politics podcast focusses on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on elections, governments and public policy around the globe. As we approach nearly one year of domestic restrictions and global travel restrictions, we look at how politics has been affected by the pandemic, and what the future may look like for governments. This episode also features a review of the Portuguese presidential election results, the new Estonian Government, and an update on the ongoing crisis of leadership for Giuseppe Conte in Italy.
Covid-19 has dominated everyone's lives for the past year, and has plunged every government in the world into a major public health crisis, dominating energy and time. In this episode, Sam and Chern look at how governments have fared in terms of approval ratings and electoral outcomes, as well as assessing the impact on election procedure and democratic engagement. Have incumbents received a polling boost for crisis management? Have party systems converged around single policy ideas for the long-term? What issues now dominate public debate? How long will Covid-19 have an impact at the ballot box? All of these questions, and more, in this week's special Covid-19 edition.
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The latest episode of this international politics podcast focusses on the election of the new leader of the CDU, Armin Laschet, and discusses the legacy of outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The episode also takes a look at the upcoming Portuguese presidential election, and the latest developments in Italy as Giuseppe Conte hangs on to the premiership.
A week on from Armin Laschet's victory in the CDU leadership election, Sam and Chern look at how he managed to clinch the top job and what this might mean for the politics of the CDU going forward. Attention now turns to who will be the centre-right's candidate for Chancellor in the September election, as Jens Spahn and Markus Söder posture for the nomination. How will this be decided, and who will be the best positioned to inherit Angela Merkel's role? As Merkel's 16-year tenure as Chancellor comes to an end, the episode also looks at her legacy within the CDU and German politics as a whole. What will be her biggest legacy? How will her handling of the migrant crisis be viewed by history? Is she personally responsible for the decline of the SPD?
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This slightly extended episode of the all-new international politics podcast focusses on the the second impeachment of Donald Trump, and takes a more broader look at the impact of Trump on the Republican party as his administration comes to an end. The episode also takes a look at the recent Canadian Cabinet reshuffle, and the collapse of the Dutch and Estonian Governments in what has been a very busy week for European politics.
Just a few days after the US House voted 232-197 to impeachment the 45th President for inciting an insurrection against the US Capitol, Sam and Chern look at the fallout from this result and why members voted the way they did. Why did 10 Republicans vote to impeach a Republican president? How will the Senate trial pan out? Is Mitch McConnell really about to vote to convict Donald Trump for high crimes and misdemeanors? As the Republicans look ahead to years back in Opposition, the episode also looks at the impact Trump has had on the party for four years and what they might do next. Will Trump's grip on the party diminish? Is he the frontrunner for the 2024 primary? What has been Trump's legacy on the Republican party?
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast focusses on the United States and the recently concluded run-off elections for the two Georgia senate seats. Just a few days after Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock beat the two incumbent Republican Senators to take back control of the Senate majority for their party, Sam and Chern look at how they managed it, and what this means for US politics. This episode also features a preview of this weekend's CDU leadership election in which the likely successor to Angela Merkel as German Chancellor will be elected.
The Democrats will now control the majority in the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris's deciding vote, but what will Chuck Schumer and his party be able to achieve? Does this change the legislative priorities of the incoming Biden administration. In the week that Trump was caught on tape lambasting the Republican Georgia state officials, the episode also looks at the impact this may have had on the fortunes of his party. Is Georgia turning into a blue state, or was this a case of good timing for the Democrats?
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast focusses on the United States and the upcoming run-off elections for the two Georgia senate seats. With just 2 days to go until Georgians head to the polls to choose their Senators and determine which party holds the balance of power in the Senate, Sam and Chern look at what is going on in the state and what makes these elections so fascianting to follow. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are looking to save their seats, but challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are looking to translate Biden's statewide win into two statewide wins on the congressional side. Are they the right candidates for the moment? Which party has more to lose on Tuesday? Will Donald Trump's rhetoric about voting irregularties in the state hurt Republican turnout?
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast continues our exploration of the UK's exit from the European Union, and the impact of this on UK politics. In the week in which the UK-EU trading agreement passed through Parliament, Sam and Chern take a look at how the UK got to this point and the impact of the turbulence along the way. This episode also includes a discussion of the recent collapse of the Moldovan Government ahead of Maia Sandu's inauguration and Israel's return to the polls for the fourth time in two years.
1645 days after the 2016 EU Referendum, the UK and EU have finally agreed a future trading relationship, rounding off an eventful four and a half years of UK politics. This episode is the second part of the journey through Brexit Past, Present and Future, focussing on the build-up to the deal throughout 2020 and what lies ahead for the European issue in British politics? Why was the 2019 Election the beginning of the end for this long story? Did the pandemic make the negotiations and passage easier? How do Labour manage the European issue going forward? Will 'rejoin' become a credible and prevalent cleavage in British politics?
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast turns its attention to Brexit in the first part of our exploration of the UK's exit from the European Union, and the impact of this on UK politics. In the week that Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen unveil the UK-EU trading agreement, Sam and Chern take a look at how the UK got to this point and the impact of the turbulence along the way. This episode also includes an update on the formation of Joe Biden's Cabinet, and a discussion of the recent Indonesian Cabinet reshuffle.
1645 days after the 2016 EU Referendum, the UK and EU have finally agreed a future trading relationship, rounding off an eventful four and a half years of UK politics. Over the next two episodes, Sam and Chern will discuss Brexit past, present and future. This episode looks at the rise of euroscepticism and the impact of Theresa May's turbulent handling of Brexit on UK politics more generally. When did Brexit seem inevitable? How has the party system changed as a result of this withdrawal? Did the 2017 General Election make Brexit more difficult than it could have been?
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast looks back on the year 2020 in politics, discussing contenders for the inaugural and prestigious Ballot Talk Awards. This episode also includes an update on the formation of Joe Biden's...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast once again turns the focus to the UK to look at the fortunes of the Labour Party. It includes a review of the first year of Keir Starmer's leadership as well as a discussion on how the...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast turns the focus to the UK and the current Johnson-led Conservative government. It includes a review of Cabinet performance, speculation about a January 2021 reshuffle and a discussion...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast wraps up the coverage of the 2020 US elections. This week's edition focusses on the formation of President-elect Biden's Cabinet as well as the 2019/20 session of the US Supreme Court,...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast discusses the recently concluded, but nonetheless ongoing, 2020 US elections. This week's edition focusses on results down the ballot, particularly assessing the mixed fortunes of the...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast discusses the recently concluded, but nonetheless ongoing, US Presidential Election. Joe Biden has been proclaimed President-elect, but the fallout continues, with this week's edition...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast discusses the recently concluded, but nonetheless ongoing, US Presidential Election. At the time of recording, Joe Biden had not been projected to be the winner, but was well on his way....
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In the latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast, Sam and Chern discuss the upcoming US presidential and congressional elections and make some final predictions about what the results could look like. The episode also discusses the...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast discusses the upcoming US Presidential Election, the recent debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as how polling should be treated in the final 10 days. It also takes a look...
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The latest episode of this all-new international politics podcast discusses the results of the New Zealand parliamentary elections. It also takes a look at the upcoming US Senate elections and discusses the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the US...
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The first episode of this all-new international politics podcast takes a look at the upcoming US House elections and discusses last week's Vice-Presidential Debate. It also discusses the imminent New Zealand elections with views offered on how the...
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