Patrick Boyle On Finance: Recent Episodes
Patrick Boyle
This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. To contact Patrick visit http://onfinance.org Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance DISCLAIMER:This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.
Argentina’s economy is in crisis—again. President Javier Milei’s reforms slashed inflation and balanced the budget, but now the peso is under siege. In this video, we unpack the $20 billion U.S. bailout, the speculative pressure on Argentina’s currency, and the political risks ahead of the October 26 midterms.We’ll look at:Why the U.S. Treasury is buying pesos for the first time in decadesHow Milei’s fixed-but-adjustable exchange rate is draining reservesThe geopolitical angle: China, soybeans, and Washington’s strategic betWhat history tells us about defending overvalued currenciesWhether Milei’s reform agenda can survive—or if the chainsaw has stalled
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Two companies collapsed last month. One sold used cars, the other distributed brake pads and spark plugs. Both issued debt rated AAA. Now their bonds are trading at cents on the dollar—and Wall Street is pretending not to notice.In this video, we dig into down the bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group to understand what they reveal about private credit, and why supposedly safe securities are starting to look a lot less safe. We’ll look at hidden leverage, double-pledged collateral, shadow banking, and the growing disconnect between risk and reward in today’s credit markets.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Is America Closing the Door on Global Talent?Donald Trump’s new $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, universities, and foreign governments. In this video, we unpack the legal, economic, and political fallout — from panics at airports to diplomatic blowback, from the Hyundai factory raid to the eerie silence of Silicon Valley CEOs. Is this the end of skilled immigration as we know it? Or just another chapter in America’s long-running immigration drama?We’ll explore:What the H-1B visa is and why it mattersHow the fee could reshape tech hiring, university admissions, and global talent flowsThe legal challenges ahead and the industrial policy contradictionsWhy CEOs are staying quiet — and what that silence saysThe growing divide between MAGA populism and tech elite pragmatism
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Are Britain’s millionaires really fleeing the country—or is the “exodus” just a statistical mirage?This video digs into the numbers behind the headlines, from the much-quoted Henley & Partners migration report to the real impact of the UK’s non-dom reforms. We’ll look at what’s actually driving high earners to consider leaving, how tax policy shapes behavior, and why trust in government and value for money matter just as much as the top rate.Along the way, we’ll separate myth from reality, compare the UK’s approach to countries like Sweden and Switzerland, and ask what history can teach us about taxing globally mobile wealth.If you want to understand the real story behind the millionaire migration debate—and what it means for Britain’s future—watch now.Further reading:Tax Policy Associates - Why the rich paid less tax in the 1970s – despite 98% tax rates: https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/05/08/tax-rich-1970s-loopholes/Tax Policy Associates - Are Henley & Partners’ millionaire‑migration reports fabricated?: https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2025/07/27/henley-partners-millionaire-migration-report-analysis/
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
In 2003, Ghislaine Maxwell compiled a 238-page leather-bound book for Jeffrey Epstein — filled with letters, sketches, poems, and photos from billionaires, politicians, scientists, and celebrities. This book was never meant to be public. But now, thanks to the House Oversight Committee, it’s part of the public record — and it’s worse than anyone expected.We’ll also explore the deeper questions: Where did Epstein’s money come from? Why hasn’t the government followed the money? And what does this say about the two-tiered justice system in America?This scandal isn’t just about Epstein. It’s about the system that made him possible.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
This summer, a new trend hit Wall Street: Chinese meme stocks. Promoted in WhatsApp groups, Reddit threads, and even under fake YouTube comments, a group of obscure Chinese companies soared — and then collapsed — wiping out billions in investor savings. In this podcast, we explore how how this happened and look at a chinese biotech stock which briefly reached a $38 billion valuation without selling any products, we try to understand why the FBI is calling it “ramp and dump” fraud, and how scammers are impersonating brokers, analysts, and even YouTubers to lure in victims.We’ll compare these knockoff meme stocks to America’s domestically produced meme stocks — GameStop, AMC, and the DORK stocks — and ask: is this just low-quality IP theft, or a new frontier in financial absurdity?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
AI chatbots are replacing search engines—and in the process, they’re gutting the economics of journalism, reviews, and the open internet. In this video, we explore how tools like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google’s AI Overviews are intercepting audiences, scraping content without compensation, and threatening the viability of independent news and trusted information. From collapsing traffic to lawsuits and poisoned training data, this is a story about what happens when the web’s information economy starts to eat itself.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Mentioned Videos
Benn Jordan Poisonify: • The Art Of Poison-Pilling Music Files
Benn Jordan on AI Cameras Breaking The Creepy AI in Police Cameras
Angela Collier on Vibe Physics: vibe physics
My Video on Blitzscaling: The Rise And Fall Of Blitzscaling!
Why are some homeowners thriving while others are struggling to keep up? In this video, we explore how America’s housing market has fractured—creating a sharp divide between those who locked in low mortgage rates and those buying today at much higher costs.We’ll unpack:The lock-in effect and its impact on geographic mobilityWhy millennials face deeper inequality within their own generationHow renters are absorbing the full brunt of housing inflationThe role of tariffs, interest rates, and investor behaviorInternational comparisons with the UK and ChinaWhy your mortgage might be the most important financial instrument you ownFrom sticky inflation to shifting migration patterns, this is the story of how housing finance is reshaping the American economy—and the lives of millions.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
In weeks podcast, we unpack Donald Trump’s controversial deal with Nvidia and AMD — a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement that allows U.S. AI chips to be exported to China.
Is this a clever geopolitical strategy or a dangerous precedent that monetizes national security?
We explore:How the deal was brokered and what it means for U.S. trade policyLegal and constitutional concerns surrounding export controlsStrategic risks of enabling China’s AI developmentComparisons to China’s rare earth leverage and Xi Jinping’s CEO controlThe broader pattern of Trump’s executive interference in private enterpriseFeaturing analysis on the H20 chip, inference bottlenecks, golden shares, and the future of American capitalism.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Tesla’s sales are falling across the globe—from the UK to China to California. So why did the board just hand Elon Musk a $29 billion pay package? In this video, we break down the contradictions at the heart of Tesla’s current moment: collapsing demand, the Cybertruck debacle, the robotaxi fantasy, and a boardroom that seems more loyal to Musk than to shareholders.We’ll explore:Why Tesla’s fundamentals are weakeningHow Musk’s pay compares to other CEOsThe governance crisis behind the headlinesWhether Tesla is still a growth company—or just a cult stockThis isn’t just about one company. It’s about how corporate governance is bending under the weight of celebrity, and what happens when hype outpaces performance.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
In this weeks podcast, we examine the implications of Trump’s latest trade deals —from the one-sided EU deal to politically charged moves against Brazil. Are the deals being structured to exclude China from global supply chains and are these tariffs just about trade, or something more? We explore how constant changes are disrupting business activity, whether manufacturing is really coming back to the U.S., and what history tells us about protectionism’s impact on innovation and productivity.Unhedged Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3CREUnnwvLIJO7xxkUb1h8?si=c240e7c1bbe14cb3
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Jeffrey Epstein was a college dropout with no formal financial training who amassed a fortune worth hundreds of millions of dollars and mingled with presidents and billionaires. Drawing on court records and media investigations we trace where Epstein's money came from and what happened to it? From his first job as a high school teacher to involvement in a Ponzi scheme, secretive offshore firms, and powerful clients like Les Wexner and Leon Black. As conspiracy theories swirl and official narratives shift, one question remains unanswered: where did Epstein's money actually come from?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Britain once built world-class infrastructure with speed and purpose—now it plans ideas like a £24 billion extension cords to Morocco that are unlikely to ever work. This video dives into the rise and fall of the Xlinks Morocco–UK Power Project, exploring how overcomplication, bespoke design, and regulatory gridlock have turned modern megaprojects into cautionary tales. From fish discos at Hinkley Point C to 31,000-page environmental assessments, we ask: have we forgotten how to build? And what can we learn from countries like Ireland in the 1920s—or South Korea today—about getting big things done?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
David McWilliams Podcast Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4tNA1i7AZEkpMxWcctHJMw?si=997c24b511c14f9a
Jane Street, a prominent quantitative trading firm, has been at the center of controversy in India regarding its options trading activities. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), have accused Jane Street of market manipulation and temporarily banned the firm from accessing the Indian securities market and are seeking to recover substantial profits, allegedly earned through these activities. The Indian regulators actions against Jane Street have sparked debate within the financial industry about the nature of sophisticated trading strategies and the
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
As Bitcoin surges into the financial mainstream, a growing number of companies — from obscure microcaps to global tech giants — are transforming themselves into crypto-holding entities. This video explores the rise of the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, tracing its origins with MicroStrategy’s dramatic pivot, the global wave of imitators, and the political entanglements reshaping the crypto landscape. With billions in digital assets now sitting on corporate balance sheets, the question is no longer whether Bitcoin belongs in business — but what happens when the music stops.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
In the race to dominate generative AI, Big Tech firms haven’t just been building, they’ve been buying. But there’s something strange about most of the deals that they have struck. Companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia are embedding themselves deep within the AI ecosystem through strategic investments, exclusive partnerships, and talent acquisitions- with deals that stop just short of formal takeovers, but the economic impact of these deals it turns out – is indistinguishable from full control.Drayton D'Silva Substack Article: https://enterprisevalue.substack.com/if-i-did-itPatrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Patrick Boyle, a former Wall Street trader, rates the biggest finance movies like "The Wolf of Wall Street," "The Big Short," "Rogue Trader" and "American Psycho" for realism.Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
As the Senate decides on Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Budget, a lesser-known provision tucked into the House-approved bill has drawn attention from Wall Street.The measure, known as Section 899, would allow the U.S. to add a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments, including multinational companies operating in the U.S.Some analysts call the provision a “revenge tax” due to its wording. It would apply to foreign entities if their home country imposes “unfair foreign taxes” against U.S. companies, according to the bill. Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Donald Trump and Elon Musk have been locked in a public fight after Musk spent days bashing Trump's "big, beautiful bill" — a multi-trillion dollar budget key to unlocking the president's agenda currently being voted on in the Senate. In return, the president threatened to cut the federal government's contracts with Musk's companies, including SpaceX.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Why did the star lot of the spring season, a bronze head by the master sculptor Alberto Giacometti, fail to sell at Sotheby’s?Alberto Giacometti’s 1955 bust, “Grande tête mince" (“Big Thin Head”), carried a pre-sale estimate of $70 million in Sotheby’s Modern evening auction. The auctioneer started the bidding at $59 million dollars. But no one bid - the piece went unsold. It was the second high-profile lot to disappoint in two days. Andy Warhol’s “Big Electric Chair” (1967-68) was withdrawn from Christie’s 20th century evening auction the day before. Is the fine art market in trouble?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Developed economies around the world have been growing their debts over the last twenty-five years. This was less of a problem when interest rates were close to zero but in the era of trade wars, lower credit ratings and higher interest rates, debt is more expensive to issue and service. Bond investors have worried that governments are addicted to debt for quite some time, and recent drama in the Japanese bond market along with the deficit spending of Trump's "one big beautiful bill" lead many to question the ability of governments to cover massive budget deficits. This video looks at the drivers of growing government debt, what the money is spent on, can Elon Musk's DOGE cut spending and analyze the role of the 'bond vigilantes', to understand if huge budget deficits and government borrowing could spiral out of control. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Donald Trump has promised to slash the US’s high prescription medication prices by as much as 80 per cent with an executive order that seeks to force other countries to pay more for their medicines.“Americans will no longer be forced to pay almost three times more for the exact same medicines, often made in the exact same factories,” the order said. “As the largest purchaser of pharmaceuticals, Americans should get the best deal.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
This week, let's talk about the great wealth transfer, what this means for the economy, and why millennials are expected to become the wealthiest generation in history.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its economy has surpassed most expectations. Last year, Russia’s economy grew more than the United States and Europe and on top of that Russian unemployment is at a record low. What is causing this growth and how are wartime economies different?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website:
https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
For decades, the American consumer has powered not just the world's biggest economy but the entire global economy. According to the World Bank – Americans make up around one third of global consumer spending but are only 4% of the global population. We shouldn't be too surprised by this – Americans are amongst the most productive workers in the world and thus are amongst the best paid – the fact that they are both busy and highly paid makes them naturally big consumers.
In today's podcast we look at how tariffs, the end of the de minimis exemption and lower consumer conference may affect the American consumer.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
In the wake of Trump's liberation day tariffs, stocks, bonds and the US dollar collapsed all at once as investors started dumping American assets. Some commentators argued that China might be behind the selling to put the US government under pressure. In this week's podcast let's discuss if it is wise to sell US assets should investors demand a risk premium, is Ray Dalio is right about how reserve currencies change over time and what is the Mar A Lago accord?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Americans have ben rushing to buy new cars as President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and car parts remains in effect despite the deferral of other country-based taxes that were announced last week. Analysts are predicting a drop in vehicle sales for 2025, higher new and used car prices, and increased industry costs of more than $100 billion dollars. How will you be affected by Trump's new car tariffs?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April second were more severe than the market expected. On top of a 10 per cent universal minimum tariff, the new regime includes significantly higher tariffs for most major trading partners and brings US effective tariff rates to levels we have not seen since the early 1900s. How will Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs transform global trade?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgFurther Reading:Hidden Forces Podcast: https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/end-of-the-german-economic-miracle-wolfgang-munchau/Manoj Pradhan & Charles Goodhart - The Great Demographic Reversal: https://amzn.to/42zBaNWMichael Pettis & Matthew Klein - Trade Wars are Class Wars: https://amzn.to/42kiiB4
Elon Musk once described competition for his businesses as non-existent, but today the two businesses that underpin his corporate empire - Tesla and SpaceX, are facing more and more competition. In todays video we examine if Elon Musk's business empire is collapsing?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Ways To Support The Channel:
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Birth rates are plummeting worldwide – and while this might seem like nothing new – as it has been the case in developed countries for quite some time. The thing that is interesting is that we are seeing declining birth rates everywhere and the standard explanations that you have heard in the past don’t really hold up.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgAlice evans Blog: https://www.ggd.world/p/why-are-chinese-marriages-plummetingGoodhart & Pradhan - The Great Demographic Reversal: https://amzn.to/4iswSgWFT - The Relationship Recession: https://www.ft.com/content/43e2b4f6-5ab7-4c47-b9fd-d611c36dad74FT - The New Global Gender Divide: https://www.ft.com/content/29fd9b5c-2f35-41bf-9d4c-994db4e12998
Saudi Arabia's Neom megaprojects are running into major financial problems according to The Wall Street Journal.After more than $50 billion dollars has been spent the fantasy city has collided with reality.Costs have soared, delays are constant, and the capital expenditure estimates to complete the projects by 2080 have ballooned to $8.8 trillion dollars, which is over 25 times the kingdom's annual budget.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
European markets rallied sharply this week as German borrowing costs soared after the country’s new leaders announced a historic deal to loosen its “debt brake” rule to boost spending on defense.The interest rate on German government bonds saw their biggest daily increase since October 1998.The Dax 30 index, which tracks the largest German companies, rose by 3.5% as stock prices also leapt in other European markets amid hopes that a massive boost in European spending on defense and infrastructure would kickstart the region’s lagging economy.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
The average American is 39 years old - which is half the age of the sitting president - Donald Trump. When Ronald Reagan was inaugurated at 69 years old, he became the oldest person to have ever served as president. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are even older and are now - the two oldest men to ever be inaugurated as president. The average ages in the House and Senate at 58 and 64, are significantly older than the average American. A word often used to describe the nation’s governing class is “gerontocracy” - meaning government based on rule by old people. It's not just in the US either - around the world our political leaders are older than ever before. Why has this happened?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Argentina’s president Javier Milei has been rocked by a scandal over his promotion of a memecoin called $LIBRA which soared in value before collapsing last week, triggering lawsuits and calls for impeachment.Buyers of the cryptocurrency accused the coin’s creators of - what is known as a “rug pull” scheme, a type of crypto pump and dump scheme - where the promoters draw in buyers, only to stop trading and make off with the money raised from token sales.The same team who launched the Argentina linked meme token are also behind Donald Trump's wife's Melania Coin - which performed similarly.In today's video we discuss whether elected representatives should be involved in cryptocurrency investments.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Coffeezilla Libra Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqizJTbxAEM&t=3261s
From skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere, to man-made islands that are sinking into the sea. And from abandoned buildings to foolish transportation infrastructure - let's look at the world's most useless megaprojects.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social
Neom The Line Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak4on5uTaTgBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Last weekend Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 per cent levy on imports from China. Canadian oil was hit at a lower rate of 10 per cent. The duties will take effect from Tuesday. Just days later these tariffs were suspended.Trump said the actions were in response to the “major threat” posed by the flow of migrants and drugs into the US across its borders with Canada and Mexico.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
On Monday, over a trillion dollars was wiped off the US stock market due to the appearance of a Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek.The release of a new reasoning model, known as R1, led investors to question US dominance in tech, their expectations around future AI capex while also raising the prospect that China might beat Silicon Valley at its own game.The new DeepSeek model can “reason” to solve complex problems and performs as well as the AI software from US tech giants like Google and OpenAI, but was apparently developed at a fraction of the price of those models.DeepSeek quickly overtook OpenAI’s ChatGPT as the most-downloaded free app on the US iOS App store.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
1720 was a year of two bubbles and a plague - The Mississippi Company in France –and the South Sea Bubble in England were the first large scale financial bubbles on record. In September 1720 - when the bubbles burst, England and France were plunged into economic and political crisis's. These were amongst the first examples of financial boom and bust cycles and were the events that gave rise to the use of the term bubble to describe a spectacular market failure.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialSources:Money For Nothing by Arthur Levinson: https://amzn.to/3PUbbcVThe King, the Crook, and the Gambler by Malcolm Balen: https://amzn.to/3CFq7bMThe Life of Isaac Newton by Richard Westfall: https://amzn.to/4hfXbWUManias Panics & Crashes - Kindelberger: https://amzn.to/40xOrnXBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgPatrick Boyle On Finance YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyle
The Los Angeles wildfires have destroyed more than 12,000 structures and at least 24 people have died with more unaccounted for as multiple wildfires, fueled by severe drought conditions and strong winds, continue to burn. Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate that the destruction will cost insurers as much as $30 billion dollars and after accounting for non-insured damages, the total costs will balloon to $40 billion. The ongoing fires, already appear to be the costliest wildfire event in California history.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Donald Trump has promised to conduct “the largest deportation effort in American history,” no matter what it costs—but the price tag may be bigger than expected.In today's video we look at a history of US border control and the economic costs of deporting more than six percent of the US workforce while the US workforce ages. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgLinks:Chloe East - The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.1086/721152Chloe East - Unintended Consequences of Immigration Enforcement: https://jhr.uwpress.org/content/early/2022/05/02/jhr.0920-11197R1Warwick McKibbin presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QV3lxKYIDFEWhat Will Mass Deportations Look Like: What Will Mass Deportations Look Like? How many people did Obama, Biden and Trump actually deport? https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-deportation-numbers-obama-biden-b2649257.htmlSarah O’Connor Article: https://www.ft.com/content/2bb60c40-efe1-48d1-9c9e-b9ff672ce349Who is right about ‘Maganomics? https://www.ft.com/content/76ee5977-1f16-470b-86a5-400209aad5a3What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/
For years, the auto industry has been hyping the transition to electric vehicles with optimistic sales forecasts for electric models and huge growth projections. Investors pumped up valuations for automakers, based on their visions for an electric future.Now the hype is dwindling, and companies are again cheering consumer choice. Automakers from Ford Motor and General Motors to Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Jaguar are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans.Tesla’s annual vehicle deliveries declined for the first time in more than a decade during a period when overall car sales are up. Have automakers overinvested in EVs and are EVs killing the car industry? Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgPatrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0bApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nveJoin this channel to support making this content:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/joinFurther Reading: How Trump policies could reshape the EV industry: https://observer.com/2024/12/trump-ev-policy-tesla/Norway EV subsidies: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/the-hypocrisy-of-the-electric-vehicle-movement/Tesla Deliveries drop: https://www.ft.com/content/f13d799c-a4dc-4619-b876-6ec68b502fecAutomakers struggling: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/business/automakers-trouble.htmlNorthvolt Bankruptcy: https://www.ft.com/content/09938004-21b9-4750-8fa2-9ed15c566d4eThe Winners & Losers in Auto Sales: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g63335108/auto-sales-q4-2024-winners-losers/Why Norway is Having Second Thoughts about EVs: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo
Here's a look back on some of the most impactful events in markets during 2024.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: / patrickboyleonfinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickb...Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky....Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
There is a long history of regulation and deregulation where big scandals provide the catalyst for new rules, and then the realization that the rules are possibly excessive has caused them to be rolled back.In finance the 1933 Glass-Steagall provisions came in the wake of the 1929 Crash. The 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act was a reaction to the Enron and WorldCom scandals. Dodd-Frank was enacted in 2010 after the 2008 financial crisis.Good regulation can bring all sorts of benefits, but excessive regulation, does little to serve the public interest, and creates financial costs and frustration for businesses and the public. Elon Musk has vowed to dismantle thousands of federal regulations as the co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, saying the nation’s financial security depends on it. Is he right, and if so, what rules need to go first?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgAdditional Reading:https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/brief-history-regulation-and-deregulationAn Evaluation of Consumer Protection Legislation: The 1962 Drug Amendments | Journal of Political Economy: Vol 81, No 5https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/jones-act-burden-america-can-no-longer-bear#conclusionhttps://worksinprogress.co/issue/how-madrid-built-its-metro-cheaply/Milton Friedman Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZL25NSLhEAA history of regulation and deregulation: https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/brief-history-regulation-and-deregulationWeird Laws Around the World: https://www.farandwide.com/s/weird-laws-world-4961c1ede8d749bf
Javier Milei has been in office for one year having taken over an economy on the brink of collapse. Milei managed to cut the monthly inflation rate from 26 per cent before he took office to 2.7 per cent in October. The Argentine peso has strengthened significantly against the black-market dollar over the past six months and Argentina’s sovereign bond prices have roughly tripled.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgFurther Reading:FT - Has Javier Milei proved his critics wrong? https://www.ft.com/content/35b444a1-608c-48b5-a991-01f2ac3362beThe Economist - The making of an economic miracle? https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/argentina-the-making-of-an-economic-miracleJavier Milei's Argentina in 6 Charts: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654089/javier-milei-argentina-charts.aspx
In today's video we examine Donald Trump's plan to rebalance global trade using tariffs, try to understand the issues with international trade that have been pushing the United States and other countries in this protectionist direction, and if tariffs can be expected to improve the situation or make things worse. We’ll discuss whether Trump could impose his tariffs unilaterally on his first day in office and whether the mere threat of tariffs could be used to improve Americas bargaining power?Subscribe to @PBoyleInterviews here: https://youtu.be/w7sWER7LJd8 Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Further Reading:Michael Pettis Trade Intervention for Freer Trade: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/trade-intervention-for-freer-trade?lang=enCFR The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship
Victor Haghani started his career at Salomon Brothers and shortly after became a managing director in the bond arbitrage group run by John Meriwether. He was a founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management and established its London office. The failure of LTCM was a life-changing experience that led him to question and revise much of the way he thought about the economy, markets, and investing. His new book - The Missing Billionaires is a personal finance book that examines why there are so few "old money" billionaires on the current rich lists. The book focuses on poor risk decisions, both in investing and spending. Many of the millionaires from 125 years ago didn’t choose bad investments– they simply sized them incorrectly– and allowed their spending decisions to amplify this mistake.The Missing Billionaires book offers a framework for making important lifetime financial decisions in a systematic and rational way. In today's interview Victor discusses how much risk an investor should take to safely grow their wealth or how much of a good thing is too much?The Missing Billionaires on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3OIr6u8Subscribe to Victor's Mailing List: https://elmwealth.com/elm-in-the-press/Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Marc Andreessen appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast this week arguing that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) should be shut down as it debanks conservatives.In today's video we use the example of the finfluencer promoted fintech bank Yotta - look at its ties to another fintech - synapse to try to understand if the CFPB should be defunded or if savers need to be protected from fintech firms that are mostly unregulated.Subscribe to Patrick's interview channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyleInterviewsPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgAdditional Reading:CNBC Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/22/synapse-bankruptcy-thousands-of-americans-see-their-savings-vanish.htmlHow Safe are Online Banks & Fintechs?: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/how-safe-is-your-money-really-in-online-banks-and-fintechsAndreessen-Backed Fintech's Meltdown Shows Bank Middlemen Risks: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/andreessen-backed-fintechs-meltdown-shows-bank-middlemen-risksRob Copeland - How To Keep Your Money Safe: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/business/online-lending-banking-money-risks.html CFPB Debanking Press Release: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-finalizes-rule-on-federal-oversight-of-popular-digital-payment-apps-to-protect-personal-data-reduce-fraud-and-stop-illegal-debanking/a16z Investment list: https://a16z.com/investment-list/Joe Rogan - Marc Andreessen Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye8MOfxD5nU
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are heading up Donald Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency which plans to take aim at wasteful government spending. On the campaign Elon Musk claimed that he could cut two trillion dollars in government spending. What would those cuts look like and how likely is Elon Musk to succeed? Does Elon Musk have too many conflicts of interest to do this job?Subscribe to Patrick's interview channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyleInterviewsPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleAdditional Reading:Jetson Leder-Luis Website: https://sites.bu.edu/jetson/False Claims Act Reporting: https://www.justice.gov/civil/report-fraudThe Economist: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/11/20/governments-are-not-going-to-stop-getting-biggerReid Hoffman in The FT: https://www.ft.com/content/a3a329ee-8c9a-4abd-add2-eb7d56f4c108Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
The Great Depression was the worst and deepest peacetime economic shock in the history of the industrialized world. It brought about profound social change and was a significant factor in the drift towards the Second World War.The depth of suffering during the Depression years is hard for many of us to imagine today. More than 1 in five children in the city were suffering from malnutrition by 1932, and the Great Depression was only getting going at that point, it lasted seven more years. So, why did events on Wall Street in 1929 reverberate around the world? Why did the depression last so long, and how did America and the rest of the world eventually dig themselves out of this financial hole?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleAdditional Reading:Milton Friedman on The Great Depression: https://amzn.to/4fvMYF6The Great Depression by Robert S. McElvaine: https://amzn.to/40SzajtEssays on The Great Depression by Ben Bernanke: https://amzn.to/40SzajtKeynes letter: https://www.economicsnetwork.ac.uk/archive/keynes_persuasion/The_Economic_Consequences_of_Mr._Churchill.htmThe U.S. Economy in the 1920s: https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-u-s-economy-in-the-1920s/Britain In The Great Depression: https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/602525/britain-didnt-have-a-roaring-20s-it-had-a-roaring-30s-heres-whyMichael Pettis in The FT: https://www.ft.com/content/ec1b730b-0fbf-3a8c-896a-557c06f730cfThe photographers of the Great Depression - Dorothea Lange, Walker Evans, and Arthur RothsteinBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
The US Economy has been booming in recent years and most Americans are doing better than they were a year ago, unemployment is lower, wages are growing, and inflation is declining. It’s not just the one percent either, the statistics show that Americans across ages and social classes are doing really well. While people should be feeling these tangible economic improvements, surveys show that Americans are the most pessimistic they have been about the economy in thirty years. TikTokers have coined the term “the silent depression,” claiming that it’s harder to get by today than it was during the great depression. So what is the truth about the US Economy?Further Reading:It's Getting Better All The Time - Stephen Moore & Julian Simon: https://amzn.to/3CigyiKFactfulness by Hans Rosling: https://amzn.to/4fqA6QIGilad Edelman in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/inflation-food-prices-democrat-biden/676901/Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
There has been a lot of press on how Europe is facing deindustrialization, where manufacturing employment is in terminal decline and the continent can no longer compete due to high energy prices, economic competition, and other factors. In today's video we try to work out if Europe is doomed and should pivot towards tourism - becoming the worlds museum.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Helpful Links:
Mario Draghi Report: https://commission.europa.eu/topics/strengthening-european-competitiveness/eu-competitiveness-looking-ahead_en
Oxford Economics: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/claims-of-deindustrialisation-in-europe-are-overblown/Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Big tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google are driving the nuclear revival, as to get new power-hungry data centers built in the US and Europe, they have to solve the problem of power generation. Their net zero pledges mean that the sources of power that they have pledged to use have to be low carbon, and they have already invested heavily in wind and solar, but their data centers still need a steady base load, so for big tech, investing in nuclear energy makes a lot of sense. Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org
Since the gold rush, California has been the go-to state for start-up companies. In recent years the Golden State has been losing the competition with neighboring states. More than 500 businesses have left California since 2005. Among these businesses were Fortune 500 companies and the economic impact from these departing companies is likely to be severe.California’s tax laws and prohibitive regulations are the leading causes of the massive corporate exodus. The business-friendly conditions, opportunities to save costs, and home-ownership options for employees in other states are a few reasons companies have decided to leave California. These factors led to the first three-year decline in population in Californias history. In today's video we ask, what went wrong with California? Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgPatrick Boyle On Finance YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PBoyle
The FBI created their own crypto token called NexFundAI as part of an investigation into price manipulation in crypto markets. As a result of the investigation, the SEC charged three “so-called market makers” and nine individuals for allegedly engaging in schemes to boost the prices of certain crypto assets. The Department of Justice charged 18 people and entities for “widespread fraud and manipulation” in crypto markets.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyleAdditional Links:SEC Press Release: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-166U.S. Attorney's Office, District of Massachusetts: https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/eighteen-individuals-and-entities-charged-international-operation-targeting-widespreadLink To Report Losses: https://forms.fbi.gov/seeking-information-in-cryptocurrency-investment-fraud-investigationBusiness Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.orgPatrick Boyle On Finance Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0bApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nveJoin this channel to support making this content:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join
Send us a textPrices for the most in-demand luxury watches have been in freefall on the secondary market since March 2022 as a pandemic-era rally fizzled. Are luxury watches a good investment, how do watch prices perform in the long run?Patrick's BooksStatistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCSupport The ChannelPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleO...
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According to the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, almost half of all corporate money contributed to this year's US election campaigns has come from crypto backers and politicians are bending to their will with promises to reduce regulation and consumer protections.
Why do Trump and Kamala Harris suddenly support crypto? In today's video we follow the money.
Patrick's Books
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Links Mentioned:
Zeke Faux Book - Number Go Up: https://amzn.to/4gMw5a2
Molly White Article - https://www.citationneeded.news/coinbase-campaign-finance-violation/
Public Citizen Report - https://www.citizen.org/article/big-crypto-big-spending-2024/
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In a recent CNBC interview Tony Robbins extolled the virtues of investing in private equity, arguing that private equity provided high returns – with low risk. Is he right? Should everyone invest in Private Equity?
Patrick's Books
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Links Mentioned:The full CNBC video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWZ67Cx1zm8
An Inconvenient Fact: Private Equity Returns & The Billionaire Factory: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3623820
A Bottom-Up Approach to the Risk-Adjusted Performance of the Buyout Fund Market: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v72.n4.1#:
Cliff Asness – Volatility Laundering: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstqfcskz9o72ospzlds/opinion/why-does-private-equity-get-to-play-make-believe-with-prices
Mark Anson Paper: https://www.jstor.org/stable/43503783
Aswath Damodaran Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/privateequity.pdf
MSCI Leverage in Private Equity: https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/leverage-in-private-equity-what/04942552461#:~:text=Leverage%20can%20be%20a%20key,improvements%20rather%20than%20financial%20engineering.
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Automakers are hedging their bets on electric vehicles and stepping up their investment in hybrid cars as consumers’ growing disinterest in fully electric vehicles has forced the industry to shift gear.
A combination of high EV depreciation and concern over inadequate charging infrastructure has chilled buyers’ enthusiasm for fully electric cars, prompting a rebound in sales of hybrid vehicles that many automakers had ignored.
Volvo scrapped its target of going all electric by 2030 last week, saying it now expected to still be offering some hybrid models in its lineup at that time.
Links Mentioned
Audi e-tron lease video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU8HBNM6LTo&t=33s
EV Depreciation video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGS34ENu4S4
Patrick's Books
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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It seems like every day the tech industry comes out with a "brilliant new idea” that turns out to be merely a reinvention of a mundane product that already existed. Tech bros keep reinventing the bus, but they have also taken to reinventing the tea pot, the toothbrush, the lunchbreak and the public park. In today's video we look at the tech products that either already existed or should never have existed.
Patrick's Books
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The British government is closing in on a bailout of the Chinese owned British Steel in which taxpayers would inject £600 million pounds into the group.
British Steel is one of only two manufacturers of “virgin steel” in the UK alongside Tata Steel at Port Talbot in Wales which some industry experts claim is strategically important. Tata is in more advanced talks of its own with the government over a similar bailout.
The British government wants the steel mills to switch from using blast furnaces to more environmentally friendly electric arc furnaces at a cost of £1.25 billion to help achieve Britain's net zero goals.
Unions warn that even if the deal is approved, 2,300 jobs would be lost, because EAF is far less labor-intensive than traditional production methods.
Patrick's Books
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Useful Links
Ed Conway Blog:
https://edconway.substack.com/p/does-it-really-matter-if-we-cant
Material World by Ed Conway: https://amzn.to/3z3LORc
The Dignity Lab
Exploring what it means to live and lead with dignity at work, in our families,...
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In recent years, a number of companies have been caught claiming to use artificial intelligence while in reality, outsourcing this work to humans. The SEC recently settled with two funds who were misleading investors about their use of the technology. While artificial intelligence has been widely used in industry for decades, not all companies have been truthful with their claims of AI breakthroughs.
In today's video we discuss to what extent have big firms been faking AI?
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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I welcome my friend Adam Robinson to the podcast, the person who has had possibly the most interesting career of anyone I know. He was a teenage Chess prodigy who trained with Bobby Fischer as Fischer prepared to play Boris Spassky for the 1972 world championship – in what has gone on to be known as The Match of The Century. He was an undergrad at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and later earned a law degree at Oxford University. He cracked the SAT and other standardized tests launching the Princeton Review Company – which he later sold. He is an Artificial Intelligence pioneer, a quantitative trader, a New York Times best-selling author, and an all-round master of strategy. His company Robinson Global Strategies provides macro research to some of the world’s most successful hedge funds. Adam's newest book How Not to be Stupid is one of the very few books to be endorsed by Warren Buffett.
Follow Adam on Twitter: https://x.com/iamadamrobinson
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The Dignity Lab
Exploring what it means to live and lead with dignity at work, in our families,...
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Over the next five years the largest cohort of the baby boomer generation will reach retirement age and while it is broadly assumed that they will have comfortable retirements, a recent analysis of their assets shows that more than half of this final group of boomers are not financially prepared to retire whatsoever.
In today's video we look at how American retirees found themselves in this position, and how much you need to save to have a comfortable retirement.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Additional Reading:
While America Aged by Roger Lowenstein: https://amzn.to/4fLLZ45
Peak Boomers Paper: https://www.protectedincome.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Peak-Boomers-Econ-Impact-Study-ALI-RII-Shapiro-Stuttgen-EMBARGOED-Apr-18-2024-041924.pdf
Fed Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scf/dataviz/scf/chart/#series:Retirement_Accounts;demographic:agecl;population:4;units:have;range:1989,2022
Private pensions in the United States: Gambling with retirement security: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/private-pensions-in-the-united-states-gambling-with-retirement-security/F6599767174900C76CF00146B9F295C4
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This Monday was one of the worst days for global stock markets in years, Stocks in the US, Europe and Japan tanked on Friday and again on Monday before a partial rebound. Bond yields and foreign exchange rates swung around wildly too.
The Magnificent seven stocks lost about $1 trillion dollars in value in just two days. So, what exactly is going on in markets, and how much should we worry?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Anything But Law
Discover inspiring stories and insights from entrepreneurs, athletes, and thought leaders.
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Big Tech is slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs and blaming artificial intelligence, but there may be more to the story than that. Intel just announced fifteen thousand layoffs yesterday, causing their stock price to plunge. Big Tech, who for over a decade provided all sorts of employee perks may no longer be the dream place to work.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
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The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered to authorities in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said.
Both the SEC and a federal grand jury in the Central District of California brought charges against Andrew Left a prominent activist short seller with multiple counts of securities fraud for a long-running market manipulation scheme reaping profits of at least $20 million.
As alleged in the indictment, Left commented on publicly traded companies, asserting that the market incorrectly valued a company’s stock and advocating that the current price was too high or too low. Left’s recommendations often included an explicit or implicit representation about Citron’s trading position—which the regulators claim created the false pretense that Left’s economic incentives aligned with his public recommendation—and a “target price,” which Left represented as his valuation of the company’s stock. Left is accused of working with hedge funds to short and distort stock prices.
Andrew Left became well known in 2021 as one of the hedge funds short GameStop stock.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Useful Links:
Christopher Bloomstran Tweet https://x.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1801325325390893492
Matt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-26/andrew-left-wasn-t-short-for-long?
John Hempton Substack: https://johnhempton.substack.com/p/some-thoughts-on-the-andrew-left
FT Marc Cohodes: https://www.ft.com/content/01b765c2-854e-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf
PAPERS
Massa Zhang & Zhang Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2124464
Short & Distort Paper: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/2782/
Complaints
SEC Complaint: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-89
Depar
Out-of-the-box insights from digital leaders
Delivered is your window in the minds of people behind successful digital products.
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A Texas District Judge Andrew S. Hanen has dismissed all charges against seven social-media influencers the SEC and Justice Department had accused of perpetrating a “stock manipulation scheme” on Twitter and Discord, ruling that the prosecution failed to state an offense in a case alleging securities fraud.
The influencers were accused of securities fraud through a Pump and Dump scheme as they posted on social media that they owned or were buying various penny stocks but did not state that they were selling the stock as their followers bought. In his ruling, Judge Hanen rejected the government’s argument that this constituted a crime and concluded that the defendants “did not deprive investors of their money or property through any misrepresentation.”
Professor Sue Guan Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4857628
SEC Press Release: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-221
Court Opinion: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rmMOgPQgozIw/v0
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The Land That Never Was By David Sinclair: https://amzn.to/4eVC3ED
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U.S. stocks are expected to get a short-term boost in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend, as analysts say the likelihood of his victory in November has increased. Trump's lead has extended itself since Biden's poor debate performance two weeks ago which left his biggest supporters concerned about the president's ability to handle the rigors of another four years in office.
Will the stock market do better under Trump or Biden?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Additional Resources
Victor Niederhoffer – Presidential Elections & The Stock Market
Trevor Jennewine: Article
Political Cycles & Industry Returns – Stangl & Jacobsen Paper
Hidden Forces - Henry Olsen Interview
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Gregor MacGregor was a Scottish soldier, adventurer, and con man who invented a Central American country called “Poyais,” in 1820 which he claimed to rule as the “Cazique.” MacGregor attempted to draw British and French investors and settlers to his fictional country. Hundreds invested in Poyaisian government bonds and land certificates, while about 250 emigrated to MacGregor’s invented country. MacGregor’s Poyais scheme has been called one of the most brazen confidence tricks in history.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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The Land That Never Was By David Sinclair: https://amzn.to/4eVC3ED
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Every year, people around the world lose millions of dollars to a sophisticated scam known as “the pig butchering romance scam”.
The scam takes its name from the victims, who the scammers call “pigs” that they "fatten up" before slaughter. It usually begins with a text message that appears to be a wrong number. People who respond are lured into a long conversation with a good-looking and wealthy stranger who eventually offers to teach them how to make money with crypto investments. The investments are (of course) fake, and once victims send enough of their money, the scammers disappear. Victims frequently lose their life savings, and often the crime goes unreported because the victim is so embarrassed by what happened. A Kansas banker embezzled almost $50 million dollars from his bank as part of a pig-butchering scam, leading to the bank's failure.
In the bestselling book - Number Go Up by Zeke Faux, it was revealed that the people sending the messages are frequently victims themselves. In today's video we explore how the scam works and why cryptocurrencies like tether are to blame for the huge scale of this crime.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Zeke Faux - Number Go Up: https://amzn.to/3XJV7Q1
BBC Pig Butchering Documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4wYV0V-5s
Griffin & Mei Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4742235#:~:text=The%20perpetrators%20interact%20freely%20with,Binance%2C%20Huobi%2C%20and%20OKX.
All Business. No Boundaries. The DHL Supply Chain Podcast
Welcome to All Business. No Boundaries, a collection of supply chain stories by DHL...
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Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Podcasting For Brands // bring your guest we do the rest
Video episodes. Social clips. Live producer. Virtual studio. Coaching.
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Demetri Kofinas came up with the term Financial Nihilism in 2019, describing it as a philosophy that treats the objects of speculation as though they are all intrinsically worthless.
Financial nihilism according to Demetri represents an ideological standpoint that questions the value and legitimacy of financial systems, markets, and even the concept of money itself. It doesn’t involve a simple disregard for fundamental reality but a contempt for all fundamentals. The point of view is that the entire system is a scam, and you should thus only view financial markets and prices as a casino.
The rise of meme stocks like GameStop and cryptocurrencies are symptoms of this point of view, where pumping financial products in a zero-sum game has become a style of investing for many of millennials who view it as a way to get rich in an essentially meaningless world.
John Authers argued in Bloomberg that, the latest bout of speculation, and especially the extraordinary excitement at GameStop, unlike prior bubbles has a different emotional driver: anger.
In today's video Patrick explores what got us here and how might this idea affect society.
Demetri Kofinas - Hidden Forces link: https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/
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Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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India’s stock market took its worst tumble in four years after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP lost its parliamentary majority in a surprise outcome.
This result means that Modi will need to rely on smaller parties to form a governing majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament, raising uncertainty about the Indian leader’s ability to pursue his pro-business agenda.
Surprise election results in Mexico and South Africa also shook markets over the last week. Should investors worry about the effect elections can have on markets?
Manoj Pradhan on Twitter: https://x.com/ManojPradhanTHM
Patrick's Books:
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Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Trolls of Wall Street on Amazon: https://amzn.to/4e40D5M
An interview with Nathaniel Popper the author of Trolls of Wall Street - How the Outcasts and Insurgents Are Hacking the Markets. Trolls of Wall Street is a new book telling the story of an improbable gang of self-proclaimed “degenerates” who made WallStreetBets into a cultural movement that moved from the fringes of the internet to the center of Wall Street, upending the global financial markets and changing how an entire generation thinks about money, investing, and themselves.
It tells the story of the people like Keith Gill (known online as Roaring Kitty) who made and lost millions, battling with each other—and with Wall Street—for power and status. It is a sobering account of how millions of young Americans became obsessed with money and the markets, casting a long and lasting influence over finance, politics, and popular culture.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Send us a Text Message.
Red Lobster was America’s largest casual dining seafood chain, with almost 600 locations across the United States and Canada. Its bankruptcy was announced earlier this week.
The bankruptcy declaration insinuates that the chains equity owner who was also their biggest seafood supplier might have decided that their equity stake in the business was worthless, but that they could extract some extra value from the company before it declared bankruptcy by selling them a lot of extra shrimp, leading to the uneconomical "Endless Shrimp" deal at Red Lobster.
The decision to make the $20-dollar endless shrimp deal a permanent menu item is said to have led to an $11 million dollar loss.
The bankruptcy declaration says that “the Debtors are currently investigating the circumstances around these decisions.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Over a four-day period Japan is suspected to have carried out two interventions to support the yen at an estimated cost of $59 billion dollars.
The first intervention came after the yen fell below 160 to the dollar for the first time in 34 years. The second intervention came a few days later after Jerome Powell announced that a rate hike was unlikely to be the Fed’s next interest-rate move.
The simplest explanation for the declining yen is that it is entirely driven by Japanese interest rates being low relative to other developed markets. People take their money out of the yen which is yielding 0 and put it in dollar denominated bonds to earn 5% - leading to a decline in the yen, but my friend Manoj Pradhan at Talking Heads Macro argues that this is a lazy oversimplification and that the Yen and Japanese markets are possibly the most interesting story in macroeconomics today.
Manoj Pradhan on Twitter: https://x.com/ManojPradhanTHM
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...
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Europe’s largest oil and gas company Shell was accused in an investigative report from Greenpeace Canada of selling millions of carbon credits tied to CO2 removal that never took place.
Let’s look at what Shell did, how carbon offsets work, and how environmentally beneficial they actually are.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Support the Show.
The Société Générale Delta One Desk is back in the news after two traders were dismissed - accused of placing unauthorized risky options trades.
Kavish Kataria – one of the traders in question - attacked the banks leadership with a LinkedIn post on Thursday saying the “entire risk team and other bosses” were equally responsible for the trades and complaining that his bonus had been withheld.
The Delta One desk that Kataria worked on is the same trading desk where rogue SocGen trader Jérôme Kerviel caused a $5.2 billion dollar loss in a 2008 scandal that caused the US Federal Reserve to cut rates to stabilize markets.
SocGen told Bloomberg News earlier this week that two people based in Hong Kong had left last year — a trader and a team leader — after a “one-off trading incident, which didn’t generate any profit impact and led to appropriate mending measures”.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Lina Khan's Federal Trade Commission is suing to block Tapestry's $8.5 billion acquisition of Capri Holdings, saying the deal would harm consumers by reducing competition and raising prices in the affordable luxury handbag sector.
Monday's lawsuit challenges the proposed deal that would have Tapestry controlling Coach, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman, Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo.
According to the FTC, the acquisition could have a negative impact on the millions of American shoppers who now benefit from the head-to-head rivalry between Tapestry and Capri, as well as on the roughly 33,000 workers employed by both companies worldwide.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
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Check out Eight Sleep and unlock $200 off using my link: https://www.eightsleep.com/boyle/
British stocks closed at an all-time high this week, but as exciting as a new all-time high might sound, the British stock market has been lagging US and European stocks since the Brexit referendum.
A recent report from Goldman Sachs says that the British economy is 5% smaller than it would have been had it remained in Europe.
The IMF last week listed the UK in its Fiscal Monitor publication as one of four large economies that “critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues”.
In this week's video we ask what has gone wrong in the UK, and can it all be pinned on Brexit?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Papers Mentioned In The Video:
Dimson Marsh & Staunton Global Investment Returns Yearbook: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/in-focus/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html
Broadberry & Irwin - Labor productivity In Britain & America During The 19th Century: https://www.nber.org/papers/w10364
Schroders - Six Charts on UK Equities: https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/intermediary/insights/six-charts-that-show-just-how-cheap-uk-equities-are/
Rathbones - The Non Patriotic Case For UK Equities: https://www.rathbones.com/knowledge-and-insight/investment-update-non-patriotic-case-uk-equities
Meghan Greene - Markets must stop comparing the UK and the US: https://www.ft.com/content/13579c61-5e1f-48b5-bb4d-2dc787444fb3
Robert Armstrong - UK stocks are not all that cheap: https://www.ft.com/content/80d7f1de-dcb7-46c9-be5a-32b73c9c071e
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Saudi Arabia’s plan to build a 170km long, 500m tall, mirrored city in the desert, filled with 9 million people has been curtailed to 2.4km long.
According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s government had “scaled back its medium-term ambitions” for Neom, of which The Line is the most significant sub-project.
The Saudi government had hoped to have 9M residents living in The Line by 2030, but this has been scaled back to fewer than 300,000, according to the report.
The curtailment of plans comes as Saudi Arabia has not yet approved the 2024 budget for Neom, according to Bloomberg.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Sales growth of electric vehicles has slowed dramatically this year. Tesla delivered 20% fewer cars in the first quarter of 2024 than in the prior quarter, and BYD who was previously the world’s biggest EV maker saw sales decline more than 40% over the same period.
BYD’s EV sales were still up 13% when compared to the same quarter a year earlier, while Tesla’s sales were down 9%. Both companies have been slashing prices to stimulate demand.
While EV sales overall are still rising, they are rising at a slower rate than before. On top of that, the space has become more competitive as legacy automakers have introduced new EVs, and Chinese manufacturers have ramped up exports, overtaking Japan as the world's biggest vehicle exporter last year.
Apple, who spent a decade and ten billion dollars on research, decided in February to end their efforts to build an electric car. The Apple car would have likely cost over $100 thousand dollars and would have had lower profit margins than their core consumer electronics business. Apple’s stock price rose on the announcement that they were abandoning their EV project.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Videos Mentioned:
James May: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQY-VeA87cM&t=307s
Harry's Garage: https://youtu.be/nZysvgm2_Aw?si=AzvFLM2Ta56HgRxl
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Japan’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the first time in seventeen years, ending the world’s only remaining negative interest rate regime. The Bank of Japan also abandoned its yield curve control policy which has been in place since 2016, which saw it buying Japanese government bonds to keep longer term interest rates from rising. It has however maintained bond buying at the same pace for now.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
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After a decade of decline, bankruptcy filings around the world are on the rise. In the United States, business bankruptcy filings rose more than 40 percent last year and non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent.
Bankruptcies in England and Wales just hit a 30-year high according to the latest figures.
In Japan, corporate bankruptcies involving a total liability of 10 million Yen or more increased year on year by more than 35 percent.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Book Link:
Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy by Joseph Schumpeter: https://amzn.to/3IxYsc9
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Elon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission. Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance.
Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying about the case. We will also discuss the Open AI memo saying that the claims in this lawsuit suit stem from Elon’s regrets about not being involved with the company today and the emails OpenAI released showing that Musk initially supported the plan to create a for-profit entity and wanted a merger that would make Tesla its "cash cow."
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Papers Mentioned:
Copy of the Legal Complaint: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYCUmwA4Xxpw/v0
Ann Lipton Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/business_law/2024/03/spins-roulette-wheel-moelis-and-openai.html
Jeremy Tilman Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/contractsprof_blog/2024/03/musk-v-altman-the-breach-of-contract-claims.html
Matt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-01/openai-isn-t-open-enough-for-elon
Nilay Patel Article: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/1/24087937/elon-musk-suing-openai-nightmare-1l-contracts-exam
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Office mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.
Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% year to date, what banking regulators are saying about loan portfolios at large US banks and how banks are hedging their loan books.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Papers Mentioned:
Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4413799
The Secular Decline of Bank Balance Sheet Lending: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32176
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A new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group.
In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI-assisted consultants carry out tasks 25 per cent faster and complete 12 per cent more tasks overall, but their work was also assessed to be 40 per cent higher in quality than their unassisted peers.
In today's video we look at the pros and cons of using AI at work.
This Week's Sponsor:
Get Magical AI for free and save 7 hours every week: https://getmagical.com/patrick
Papers Mentioned:
Harvard Paper: https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf
Nicholas Carlini Blog: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/my-benchmark-for-large-language-models.html
Nicholas Carlini Quiz: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/llm-forecast/
Effects of AI on Employment Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4527336
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Make More with Matt Heslin
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As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?
Michael Pettis Books:
The Great Rebalancing: https://amzn.to/4bDIGKf
Trade Wars Are Class Wars: https://amzn.to/3I2xHMH
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Adam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point.
Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, disclosed in the letter that Loeb’s Third Point would help finance a transaction.
The Financial Times contacted Third Point to verify their involvement in the deal and were told that the fund had only held “preliminary conversations with Flow and Adam Neumann about his ideas for WeWork.” They went on to say that they have made “no commitment to participate in any transaction.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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A Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth.
The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company. Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla directors, who negotiated the pay package, were "perhaps starry eyed" due to Musk's "superstar appeal" and did not adequately inform shareholders.
Elon Musk announced after the judgement that he would seek to reincorporate Tesla in Texas, a state that he believes could be more hospitable to his way of doing business than Delaware. We’ll dig into whether that would work near the end of the video.
Roger Lowenstein - Origins of the Crash: https://amzn.to/3Ou3OIQ
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Make More with Matt Heslin
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Jesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York. Livermore made millions in the Panic of 1907, the roaring 20's and in the 1929 market crash. His experiences are chronicled in the classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefèvre.
Despite his legendary wins, Livermore went bankrupt numerous times and faced personal challenges, culminating in his tragic suicide in 1940. His legacy endures as an influential figure in financial history.
Books:
Jesse Livermore – The Man Who Sold America Short by Tom Rubython: https://amzn.to/3vWOrCA
Jesse Livermore – Worlds Greatest Stock Trader by Richard Smitten: https://amzn.to/47QO3Tm
Jesse Livermore – Speculator King by Paul Sarnoff: https://amzn.to/47R9jIv
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre: https://amzn.to/496874U
How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore: https://amzn.to/4baKom1
Online Sources
New York Times Time Machine: https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/browser
Time Magazine Archives: https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,847596-2,00.html
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Big startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year. Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over the same period. US corporate bankruptcy filings closed out 2023 with the most filings since 2010. The year has been described as a mass extinction event for startups in the press.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Support the show
How much do you need to earn per year to be in the top 1%? The answer to this question varies depending on if you are asking about the 1% in a given country or globally?
In today's podcast we discuss how much you have to earn and how wealthy you have to be to be considered in the top one percent. We discuss the careers and lifestyles of the one percent. We look at inequality research to understand if inequality is actually growing as much as researchers like Thomas Piketty say it is.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Support the show
How is China able to sell European drivers so many cheap cars? Customs data shows that Chinese EV shipments to the European Union have increased by 361% since 2021.
All over the world, Chinese automakers are taking market share which is threatening European automakers.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Dozy Mmobuosi, the founder and CEO of Tingo Mobile has been accused by US Regulators of running a "staggering fraud."
Tingo Mobile claimed to provide mobile phones to rural farmers in Nigeria and build a fintech super app. It quickly grew into a multibillion-dollar empire with a listing on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange.
Dr Dozy, the London-based tycoon attempted to buy the Premier League football team Sheffield United but struggled to prove his financial resources.
It turns out that Mmobuosi’s businesses, as they were commonly understood, may never have existed.
The SEC has accused the Nigerian businessman Mmobuosi Odogwu Banye – of perpetrating an ongoing fraud of “staggering” proportions.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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In this week's podcast we look at the biggest financial news stories of the year, bank runs, The Elon Musk - Mark Zuckerberg fight, The Sam Bankman Fried Trial and much more.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Higher mortgage rates should be expected to depress the housing market, and the US has just seen one of the steepest rate increases in history.
Would-be homebuyers are facing massive sticker shock, with measures of affordability worsening at the fastest pace on record. The US real estate market has frozen up with the volume of new sales slowing at a faster pace than even during the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
Does this mean that home prices are about to collapse? Will we see a repeat of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Support the show
Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei describes himself as an anarcho- capitalist and says that he will take a chainsaw to the Argentine economy. He has campaigned that he will dollarize the economy and shut down the central bank. What does this mean, and could it work?
Argentina mostly exports agricultural commodities but used to be one of the wealthiest nations in the world. Decades of economic mismanagement have destroyed the economy and created a web of artificial price and exchange rate controls that have produced huge distortions.
Milei is described as a libertarian economist whose ideological heroes are Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas, Murray Rothbard and Margaret Thatcher.
Milei campaigned on promises of taking a chainsaw to the state, closing down the central bank and replacing the peso with the US dollar. But he has made a dramatic shift towards moderation since winning the election.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Elon Musk told advertisers who have halted spending on X due to his endorsement of an antisemitic post to “go f**k” themselves, in an unhinged interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (who Elon calls Jonathan). Musk said that a recent exodus of big brands was “going to kill the company, and the whole world will know the advertisers killed the company”.
Musk, who bought Twitter (which he has renamed X) for $46.5 billion dollars (including transaction costs) in October 2022, dismissed the idea that he wanted advertisers to return. “If somebody is going to try to blackmail with advertising, blackmail me with money, go fk yourself,” he said. “Go. Fk. Yourself. Is that clear, I hope it is.”
Twitter makes almost all of its revenue from advertising and is saddled with $13 billion dollars of debt. Is Twitter about to go bankrupt?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Fired CEO Sam Altman will return to run OpenAI - the company he co-founded, following days of speculation and turmoil at the leading generative artificial intelligence start-up.
In a dramatic reversal, Altman, who was fired by OpenAI’s board of directors last week, will be reinstated under the supervision of a new board.
Greg Brockman, the co-founder and president who quit the company on Friday after Altman was fired, will return alongside him.
Under an “agreement in principle”, Altman will serve under the supervision of a new board of directors.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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When Mao Zedong died in 1976 his successors seized the opportunity to reassess the wisdom of Chinas rigid commitment to Marxist doctrine. With Deng Xiaoping in charge, China scoured the globe in search of economic expertise to put China on the path to domestic prosperity and ultimately global economic power.
The World Bank describes China’s growth as “the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history,” In today's video we try to understand what changes were made that allowed China to grow to become the second largest economy in the world.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Book Recommendations:
Unlikely Partners by Julien Gewirtz: https://amzn.to/3R4L9oB
Modern China by Rana Mitter: https://amzn.to/46gUZYV
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call to all western governments. Alongside China’s rise, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran and instability in Africa, the new era of global conflict has forced governments around the world to commit to more defense spending.
Will voters around the world accept the high price of military deterrence?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Support the show
Sign up for Compounded Daily at this link: https://www.compoundeddaily.com/
Since founding Bridgewater nearly 50 years ago, Ray Dalio has become one of the world’s richest investors. He is widely credited with having predicted and profited from both the 1987 crash and the 2008 financial crisis. He is the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund and is one of the most successful businessmen alive, yet he professes to be seeking something more meaningful than just money or business success.
According to Dalio, his main interest, over the last twenty years is to lead others toward “meaningful lives” and “meaningful relationships” through the application of his principles. He has written a number of books and given a Ted Talk on this topic.
Rob Copeland is a journalist at the New York Times and was previously the longtime hedge fund beat reporter at The Wall Street Journal. In his new book “The Fund” he smashes through some of the mystique built up around Ray Dalio in recent years. He argues that very little of Dalio’s success is due to his widely promoted “Principles” and can be better explained by his ability to befriend influential people and impress them with his broad knowledge of the world, his skill at getting good publicity, and his early investment success.
Rob interviewed hundreds of Bridgewater employees in order to write this unauthorized biography that shows Ray Dalio in a very different light.
Dalio declined to be interviewed for the book and has threatened a lawsuit against Rob and his publisher. In today's video I interview Rob to hear his account of life at Bridgewater and whether he believes Ray Dalio’s principles are worth following.
The Fund by Rob Copeland: https://amzn.to/40qLMMk
Principles by Ray Dalio: https://amzn.to/46WTO22
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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A jury has found Sam Bankman-Fried guiltyof all seven criminal counts against him. The FTX founder faces a maximum sentence of 115 years in prison. In today's podcast we discuss the findings of the trial and speak with Tiffany Fong who has been there in person reporting from the courthouse in New York along with people like Michael Lewis.
Tiffany Fong YouTube Channel
Tiffany Fong Twitter
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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A podcast about how "passive income" money-making scams seem to have taken over the internet, and the economic implications of such scams.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed above 4.9% yesterday, its highest level since July 2007. The bond-market sell-off that's pushing yields higher is starting to eclipse some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras.
Losses on Ten Year Treasury Bonds are close to 50% since March 2020, while the 30-year bond had plunged even more.
Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent stock market history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme collapses in history. The losses are twice as severe as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%.
With prices plunging and yields at decade highs, lets look at who feels the pain from the bond selloff.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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Oil rich countries have long used sovereign-wealth funds to store their windfall profits from periods of high prices for future years when hard times might arise.
Ireland on Tuesday created its own sovereign wealth fund thanks to outsize tax revenues from international companies seeking to lower their tax bills.
In the past eight years, the country of five million people has watched its corporate tax income triple to the tune of 22.6 billion euros last year, equivalent to almost $24 billion—giving it a budget surplus last year of a comfortable €8 billion euros.
According to GDP per capita statistics, Ireland is the wealthiest country in the world. Could this be true?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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WeWork announced this week that it would not make two sets of interest payments totaling about $95 million, a move meant to jump-start negotiations with its lenders at the same time it tries to cut costs with its landlords.
The missed interest payments will spur speculation of a bankruptcy filing. But WeWork says it has the cash on hand, and the company has a 30-day grace period to make the payments, which were due Monday. At the end of June, it had $205 million in cash and access to a credit line worth $475 million.
Skipping an interest payment is not necessary to negotiate with lenders. But indebted companies sometimes use the move to put pressure on lenders to restrike deals under more favorable terms.
From its inception in 2010 to its collapse in 2023, WeWork's journey has been a roller-coaster. Once valued at $47 billion dollars, the company today, is on the verge of bankruptcy. How did the Venture Capital backed co-working company, end up as the biggest financial bonfire in Venture Capital history?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
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A large number of western firms have continued to operate and invest in Russia since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. These companies are estimated to have earned profits of around $20 billion dollars since the invasion. The problem for these companies is that the Kremlin has blocked them from accessing those profits in an effort to clamp down on companies from what they call “unfriendly nations.” Will these companies be able to repatriate these profits at some point in the future?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
Yale List of Companies Leaving and Staying in Russia: https://www.yalerussianbusinessretreat.com/
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FTX has sued Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, the parents of Sam Bankman-Fried, claiming they enriched themselves by siphoning off millions of dollars in “fraudulently transferred and misappropriated funds” from the cryptocurrency exchange their son founded.
In a court filing earlier this week, the FTX debtors said Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, both of whom are tenured professors at Stanford Law School, used their influence to funnel money from the business to themselves and their pet charitable causes.
Bankman, a tax lawyer, also lavished gifts upon his friends and family using FTX funds, they alleged, including, flights and tickets to the Formula One Grand Prix in France.
Fried used her influence to obtain millions of dollars in donations from Bankman-Fried and an associate for Mind the Gap, a Super Pac she co-founded to help Democrats win office in the 2020 US election cycle. She further pressured “certain FTX Insiders to unlawfully avoid (if not violate) federal campaign finance law”, the debtors allege.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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The full legal complaint: https://dm.epiq11.com/case/ftx/info
Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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When a company, brand or product gets really big, it can be easy to imagine that company will remain in business forever. Yet businesses rise and fall over time, with millions and billions of dollars changing hands as executives try to stay current on what consumers want at any given time. Today let's look at some of the biggest business mistakes in history.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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Bloomberg journalist Zeke Faux travelled around the world to better understand the world of crypto currencies, meeting the biggest names in the space on superyachts in the Caribbean and at parties in Miami and travelling to El Salvador to see how bitcoin is being used in the real world.
Along the way he buys a Bored Ape with his book advance and sends Tether to a scammer in Cambodia to learn the real-world uses of cryptocurrencies.
Here is a link to the book on Amazon - https://amzn.to/44VPpuy If you enjoyed this interview, you should enjoy the book too.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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The US-China trade war is rewiring global trade. While the US seeks to reduce its reliance on China and other geopolitical rivals and start sourcing imports from closer to home, Mexico is starting to shine. Mexico has just overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
Make More with Matt Heslin
Explore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Support the show
Get one month of complete digital access to the Financial Times for $1 by clicking here: https://subs.ft.com/patrick_boyle?segmentId=979ca37f-c690-7295-5eba-bf4ff33d3bb4
Goldman Sachs is reported in the FT to have used a fund set up with Chinese state money to buy a series of US and UK companies, including one with a cyber security business that provides services to the British government, even as tensions rise between Beijing and the west.
Goldman struck seven deals using cash from a $2.5bn private equity “partnership fund” it set up in 2017 with the sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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China’s economy has been struggling to reawaken from an economic shutdown that was officially ended last year. Chinese authorities are now reported to be pressuring economists and analysts within the country to avoid discussing any negative trends and to avoid using the word deflation, as concerns grow about the leaderships’ ability to stimulate the economy. In April consumer confidence fell back to the lows of 2022, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which promptly stopped releasing the figure.
The Chinese government, facing an expected seventh consecutive monthly increase in youth unemployment, two weeks ago announced that it was suspending the release of that data. On top of this, the demographic problems brought about by the one-child policy are growing.
Michael Pettis Blog Link: https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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The Panic of 1907 was a six-week stretch of bank runs in October and early November of 1907, where the stock market crashed, the city ran out of money and numerous banks and brokerage firms went bankrupt. The event was triggered by an earthquake a year earlier in San Francisco and a failed short squeeze in United Copper stock by Fritz Augustus Heinze and Charles W Morse.
J. Pierpont Morgan famously took action to bring the business community together to save the US economy from collapse. The panic of 1907 was the crisis led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System.
Books Mentioned in This Video:
The Panic of 1907: https://amzn.to/47LMya4
Manias, Panics & Crashes: https://amzn.to/45lGVxz
America's Bank: https://amzn.to/3OPVlzh
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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The demand for electricity has been soaring around the world, and this increase in demand is expected to continue. Governments have been creating rules to electrify transportation, heating, household appliances and even industrial processes. In today's podcast we look at the electric grids that we have in place and copper production to discuss if our power grids can handle the green energy boom?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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In today's podcast I look at the affordability of real estate in the United States and around the world. I try to help my friend who runs a popular YouTube channel "How Money Works" find a good place to live. If you can live wherever you want to, where should you live?
Here is a link to his YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@HowMoneyWorks/videos
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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The performance of the US stock market is the most concentrated it has ever been. Seven of the biggest stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Google owner Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta — have rallied sharply this year gaining between 35 per cent and 210 per cent this year. The remaining 496 stocks have barely moved.
Five big tech companies make up nearly a quarter of the S&P500. At $3.1trillion dollar market cap, Apple alone is worth more than the Russell 2000 index of companies combined.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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In Europe’s battle against inflation, new villains have emerged: Beyoncé and Taylor Swift!
Last month, as Beyoncé kicked off her world tour, fans flocked to Sweden from around the world for the shows, pushing up prices for hotel rooms. This could explain some of the reason Sweden’s inflation rate was higher than expected in May according to Michael Grahn, an economist at Danske Bank.
Why after a series of interest rate hikes and a surge in the price of essential goods like food and energy — are we seeing Taylor Swift’s latest tour break records and Beyoncé stand accused of boosting the entire nation of Sweden’s inflation rate during her two-night stay in Stockholm this May?
Let's look into it...
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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In March 2023 Bernard Arnault, the chairman and CEO of luxury fashion giant LVMH overtook Elon Musk to become the wealthiest person in the world. He is the only European in the list of top 10 richest people in the world. His wealth has skyrocketed with the massive growth in LVMH’s share price. And it's not hard to see why they’re so profitable. It’s easy to make money when you can sell items of clothing for $5,000. While luxury brands build the perception of having the highest quality of goods, they are not usually any different than the products you would buy at a high street store. Luxury brands are highly sophisticated marketing machines that employ every psychological trick in the book to make you believe the product they’re selling you is worth the astronomical price tag. In today's video we look at who actually buys these goods, if Rolex watches and Birkin bags are actually good investments, and if the Luxury Goods bubble is about to burst.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle YouTube Channel
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When the Biden administration passed the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act for clean energy and tech last year, Americas trade allies in Europe and Asia were surprised. Now they are scrambling for ways to catch up. Are western economies in a war of subsidies with each other and China over technology and green infrastructure?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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Over the last three years we have seen the biggest car price increases in history. Last year the average cost of a new car in the United States was forty-seven thousand dollars and the average used car price today is just under thirty thousand dollars.
Car buyers today aren’t just faced with higher car prices, the average interest rate on a new car or truck loan has reached just under nine per cent and car insurance costs are rocketing too. What is going on?
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In The UK, September 16, 1992, is known as Black Wednesday, the day when speculators including George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller "broke the pound." This expression is used to describe the moment in time where market forces coalesced to force the British government to exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) by removing its currency from that agreement. Joining the ERM was part of Britain's effort participate in a single European Currency
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Rising mortgage payments are squeezing the finances of millions of borrowers in Britain, threatening to undermine household spending and the broader economy.
The dream of a soft landing that would have the Bank of England squeeze out inflation without condemning the country to a recession looks increasingly remote. Inflation has been more stubborn than expected and is forcing the central bank to go with a bigger-than-expected rate hike that took the key rate to 5%.
What does this mean for British housing affordability?
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Aside from losing over 1.13 million people, the United States is thought to have lost billions of dollars in pandemic relief fund fraud, according to the most recent Associated Press analysis, published this week.
The analysis discovered that fraudsters took more than US$280 billion in relief cash, while another $123 billion was lost or misspent.
“Combined, the loss represents 10 percent of the $4.2 trillion the U.S. government has so far disbursed in aid,” according to the report.
According to the analysis, this was the worst heist in U.S. history, with criminals stealing billions of dollars in government money intended to stabilize an economy in free fall.
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This week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, two of the world’s biggest crypto exchanges, on which investors buy and trade a large offering of cryptocurrencies. The SEC’s main allegation against Coinbase is that it’s running an unregistered securities exchange — like if the Nasdaq independently operated without any regulatory oversight. Binance faces the same charge, as well as additional accusations that it appropriated billions of dollars in customers’ funds for its CEO’s trading firm, misled its customers, lied to regulators, and more. Binance is accused of moving money from the US business to pay for a Yacht for the exchange founder Changpeng Zhao.
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We’ve all heard the story of how a lottery win, which at first may appear to be a great blessing slowly reveals itself to be a curse. In today's video we look at what happens to people after they win the lottery.
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Turkish voters return to the polls this weekend to choose a president. Before the first round of the election, polls suggested that voters were evenly divided between the two biggest parties. However, Erdogan’s unexpectedly strong first round has put pressure on the Turkish lira and knocked other Turkish assets ahead of this weekend’s runoff vote.
The official annual inflation rate in Turkey was 43.7% as of April. This is actually down from the 80% inflation rate that Turkey saw the prior year. In today's podcast we ask how will Turkey's election shape the economy?
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The next big potential risk to the U.S. economy may be lurking in office buildings across the country's downtown districts. With so many people still working from home, companies are cutting back on office space which threatens to unleash even more headwinds for the U.S. economy. What is going wrong in the commercial real estate market, and how might we be affected?
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The three-decade era of globalization risks going into reverse according to company executives and investors. In this video we look at the economic evidence in a paper called Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? by Pinelopi Goldberg of Yale University and Tristan Reed of The World Bank.
Here is a link to the full paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31115
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Legendary corporate raider and activist Carl Icahn found himself on the wrong side of a familiar battle this week when the short selling investment firm Hindenburg Research took aim at Icahn’s publicly traded holding company, alleging in a new report that Icahn Enterprises L.P. (IEP) is overstating the value of its private asset portfolio, and that its publicly traded stock units–85% of which Icahn owns–are “significantly overvalued.”
Icahn’s fortune fell over 35%, from $18.3 billion on Monday afternoon to $12 billion as of Tuesday’s market close. Icahn Enterprises units tumbled 20% on Tuesday, shaving $3 billion in market value off Icahn’s fortune. Forbes then trimmed Icahn’s estimated net worth by another $3.6 billion, after it was revealed that Icahn had pledged over half of his IEP shares as collateral against unknown personal debts.
Hindenburg is a short selling activist hedge fund run by Nate Anderson who is most famous for having released a video of Nikola’s electric truck prototype being towed up a hill in order to be pushed down to make a promotional video showing that the technology was fully operational. He claims that Icahn Enterprises has a Ponzi-like economic structure.
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The FDIC took possession of First Republic Bank on Monday, resulting in the third failure of an American bank since March.
JPMorgan Chase, already the largest U.S. bank by several measures, emerged as the buyer in a weekend auction for First Republic. It will get all of the ailing bank’s deposits and a “substantial majority of assets.”
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The BRICS nations have been discussing the idea of creating a new currency to facilitate overseas trade. The idea was put forth by Russia as it faces economic sanctions from the West over its invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, some of the BRICS countries have already ditched dollar and are now trading in their local currencies.
Brazil and China signed an agreement last month to abandon the dollar as an intermediary and settle bi-lateral trade in their own currencies and as many as 18 countries have agreed to trade with India in Indian rupees.
So, does a Brics currency for international trade makes sense, how likely it is that the world would move away from using the US dollar, and would the dollar losing its global dominance actually be bad for America and Americans?
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Apple recently announced its latest financial product in partnership with Goldman Sachs — a savings account designed for Apple Card users. The high-yield savings account comes with a 4.15% interest rate and comes with no fees and no minimum deposit or minimum balance requirements. Plus, it has some extra benefits for users like automatic deposits of Daily Cash earned with the Apple Card and the ability to make an instant transfer to your Apple Wallet.
This is considerably higher than the average US savings account rate of 0.37 per cent. It also beats competitors such as American Express which is offering 3.75 per cent and Goldman’s savings account that operates under the Marcus brand, which offers 3.9 per cent.
The launch comes as more established banks, in particular regional and smaller lenders, are under growing pressure to offer better savings rates for depositors to stop them transferring cash to higher-yielding products such as money market funds, which have offered better returns in line with rising interest rates.
In today's podcast we ask, Is Apple a threat to banks?
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The term “Finfluencer” refers to a person who by virtue of their popular or cultural status has an outsize impact on investor decisions through social media influence. According to Sue Guan of Santa Clara University, a variety of finfluencers exist in today’s markets, ranging from simple celebrities that draw people's attention like Kim Kardashian to corporate personalities like Elon Musk or Ryan Cohen to ordinary investors who develop followings on YouTube, TikTok, and other social media platforms. In today's video we examine how the advice of well-known personal finance influencers like Dave Ramsey and Robert Kiyosaki compares to the advice of academics.
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Disgraced Frank founder Charlie Javice has joined the likes of Elizabeth Holmes and Sam Bankman-Fried on a growing list of founders to be lavished with honors by the financial news outlet Forbes – only to later face criminal fraud charges.
“The Forbes 30 Under 30 have collectively raised $5.3B in funding,” tech investor Chris Bakke tweeted on Tuesday. “The Forbes 30 Under 30 have also been arrested for frauds and scams worth over $18.5B. Incredible track record.”
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Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, warned that the banking crisis 'not yet over' in an annual letter to shareholders just weeks after the collapse of three US banks.
He said he didn't expect the turmoil to lead to a global crisis like in 2008, noting that it involved "involved fewer players and fewer issues". But he warned the impact would linger.
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China has significantly expanded its bailout lending as its Belt and Road Initiative blows up following a series of debt write-offs, scandal-ridden projects and allegations of corruption according to a new paper "China as an International Lender of Last Resort" by Sebastian Horn of the World Bank; Brad Parks, a research professor at William & Mary University; Harvard’s Carmen Reinhart; and Christoph Trebesch, a director at the Kiel Institute. The researchers found 128 bailout loans worth $240 billion dollars to 20 countries between 2000 and 2021. The vast majority were extended over the last five years, and almost half happened in 2019-2021. Moreover, the researchers found that People’s Bank of China swap lines are far more meaningful than direct loans.
Here is a link to the paper: https://tinyurl.com/36pp5569
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After a weekend of intense negotiations, Swiss authorities brokered an emergency deal to sell Credit Suisse the troubled 167-year-old investment bank to its Swiss rival, UBS. A $54bil lifeline from the Swiss National Bank last week failed to stem the crisis facing Credit Suisse following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse: its share price collapsed and the flight of deposits accelerated. The deal has prevented a globally important bank from failing.
Under the terms of the deal, Credit Suisse’s additional tier 1 (AT1) bonds were written down to zero while shareholders received $3.25bn. In today's video we discuss whether that is fair and who owned those bonds.
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Let's discuss the ongoing controversy at Credit Suisse, if they are like Silicon Valley Bank and what this means for depositors and investors!
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A number of things went wrong at Silicon Valley Bank over the last days, weeks and years, there were huge failures of risk management. The risk manager would have some tough questions to answer, except that it appears that they didn’t have a risk manager on staff for almost nine months of the last year. There were issues tied to the different regulations applied to community banks when compared to national banks in the United States. There were investment decisions that were made that I struggle to understand, and the final stroke was a capital raise attempt that had next no chance of succeeding. You can’t raise capital from investors on the same day that you announce a close to two-billion-dollar hole in your balance sheet and the equity is tanking in value.
Anyhow, let’s go over the issues at Silicon Valley Bank, try and understand how banks work, look at the news from last night, and try to imagine how things might work out going forward.
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Banks don’t fail very often, and bank runs appear to be mostly a thing of the past. The last bank failure in the United States happened in 2020 when a small bank in Kansas failed. That two-year streak was broken this Wednesday with the failure of the crypto focused bank Silvergate, and on Friday with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
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Let’s talk about Artificial Intelligence, what it is, how it works and where it might be taking us. We’ll try and see if as an investor you should worry about missing the boat on AI, and as an individual should you worry about losing your job to these new technologies?
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The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble, also known as tulipmania, was one of the most famous market bubbles and crashes of all time. It occurred in Holland during the early to mid-1600s, when speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the market’s peak, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person’s annual salary.
Today, the story of tulipmania serves as a parable for the pitfalls that excessive greed and speculation in investing can lead to, but was the story true?
In today's video we look at the story of Tulip Mania as told by Charles Mackay in his book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, and learn that Charles Mackay was maybe not as good as you might expect at spotting bubbles.
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The commodities trading firm Trafigura has announced that it has been the victim of a “systematic fraud” and has to write-down over half a billion dollars after discovering shipments of nickel that it purchased from firms controlled by Prateek Gupta failed to contain the metal.
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The Adani Group, one of India’s biggest conglomerates, has come under fire from a small American short selling hedge fund called Hindenburg Research. The firm, run by Nathan Anderson, is known for uncovering fraud and other issues at companies like Nikola Corporation, Clover Health, and Lordstown Motors.
Let's dig into the allegations, the evidence and Adani's response and discuss what this means for Gautam Adani and for India.
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Brazil and Argentina announced last week that they are starting preparatory work on a common currency, in a move which could eventually create the world’s second-largest currency bloc. Does this move make any sense?
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In today's video we look at the recent lawsuit against Gemini Trust Company, a crypto lending platform run by the Winklevoss twins and Genesis Global Capital a crypto lender run by Barry Silbert who are accused of breaking securities laws. We'll dive into the legal definition of what a security is and how it relates to crypto products. We’ll finish up by looking at whether Logan Paul’s Crypto Zoo which was exposed as a possible scam by Coffeezilla could be seen as an unregistered securities offering.
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US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen on Friday fired her first warning shot of the year to Congress about the need to raise America’s debt limit. “Failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the US economy, the livelihoods of all Americans, and global financial stability,” Yellen wrote to lawmakers.
The US is hurtling towards its riskiest debt ceiling clash since 2011 and there is a real risk that America could default on its payments for the first time in its history.
Hardline House Republicans are demanding deep spending cuts in exchange for raising the borrowing limit beyond its current level of $31.4tn, and the White House and Democrats insist that they will not entertain a deal on that basis.
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Egypt allowed its pound to tumble to a new low this week as the country struggles with a foreign currency crisis that is hurting businesses.
The slump in the currency comes after Egypt agreed to move to a flexible currency regime as part of an IMF $3bn bailout intended to help relieve its foreign currency shortage.
Since the central bank said it would move to a flexible currency rate in October, the pound has lost a third of its value as it has allowed it to devalue in phases. Analysts warn that it has further to fall until supply-demand equilibrium is restored to the foreign exchange market.
The weakness of the Egyptian pound is adding to the pain of millions of Egyptians as it fuels inflationary pressure.
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While China is struggling with an unprecedented wave of coronavirus, and tens of millions are getting infected daily, the world’s second-largest economy is starting to show signs of coming back to life following the government’s decision last month to dismantle the zero-Covid system that aimed to control the virus at the cost of keeping the country isolated.
Investors and analysts predict a brighter year ahead after disrupted supply chains and forced stoppages on factory floors have ended, but the Chinese Economy still faces numerous challenges. The government have discussed rolling back the Three Red Lines Policy that burst the real estate bubble.
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From Elon Musks Purchase of Twitter to the arrest and extradition of Sam Bankman-Fried, 2022 was an eventful year in the world of finance. In Today's podcast let's look at the major financial news events of the year to see if there is anything we can learn or laugh about.
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Federal prosecutors and the SEC earlier this week charged seven Influencers with using Twitter, Discord and YouTube to commit securities fraud that netted them more than $100 million.
An eighth influencer was charged with aiding and abetting the alleged scheme in the SEC’s civil complaint and with conspiracy to commit securities fraud in the Department of Justice’s criminal case.
Each of the defendants had well over 100,000 Twitter followers as of this month, they ran a podcast called "Pennies: Going In Raw" and a YouTube channel called "Goblin Gang".
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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YouTube Channels Mentioned In This EpisodeCoffeezilla Explaining The Amazon Token Scam
James Jani Explaining YouTube Comment Scams
The Plain Bagel Comment Scam Video
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Sam Bankman-Fried has been arrested, accused of engineering “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.”
In a Department of Justice indictment unsealed on Tuesday, Bankman-Fried has been charged with eight counts including conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customers and lenders, money laundering and violations of campaign finance laws. Bankman-Fried, who was arrested in the Bahamas on Monday, faces years in prison if convicted.
The charges point to a long-running scheme to misappropriate the deposits of exchange customers to pay debts and expenses of Bankman-Fried’s private trading firm Alameda Research and to make investments. The conspiracy ran from 2019 — the year he founded FTX — until its collapse last month, according to the complaint.
The SEC and The CFTC have also charged Sam Bankman-Fried
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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The Rich Somers Report
Want to build wealth through real estate investing? Give this new podcast a listen!
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From Enron to Wirecard to Theranos and FTX, elaborate investment scams can remain undetected long after the warning signs appear. What are investors missing?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Books Mentioned In This EpisodeLying For Money By Dan Davies: https://amzn.to/3iWNbIM
Money Men by Dan McCrum: https://amzn.to/3HrjOJ8
Bad Blood by John Carreyrou: https://amzn.to/3uFaWb3
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Stephen Schwarzman and Jonathan Gray of Blackstone have built the best fundraising machine on Wall Street, but now, the billionaire pair are in an unfamiliar position — having to return cash to clients who are asking for their money back.
Blackstone’s stock price fell last week after it limited withdrawals from its $125bn real estate investment fund BREIT, after a surge of redemption requests.
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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Sam Bankman Fried did two interviews with Tiffany Fong to explain what happened at FTX and where the customers money went. The first interview went out on the YouTube channel Coffeezilla yesterday.
The Full Sam Bankman Fried Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xP54LZB3WRw&t=1s
Coffeezilla Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rL35_WV3lE&t=85s
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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Since its launch in 2019, FTX has raised $1.8bn and was most recently valued at $32bn. Among its shareholders are some of the world’s most-respected hedge fund managers and Venture Capitalists.
Now with FTX having filed for bankruptcy, their investments look to be a complete wipeout. Investors including Sequoia, SoftBank and Paradigm, which was co-founded by former Sequoia partner Matt Huang, have marked their holdings in the company to zero, vaporising hundreds of millions of dollars in value.
FTX’s list of investors spans powerful and well-known investment firms: NEA, IVP, Iconiq Capital, Third Point Ventures, Tiger Global, Altimeter Capital Management, Lux Capital, Mayfield, Insight Partners, Sequoia Capital, SoftBank, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Ribbit Capital, Temasek Holdings, BlackRock and Thoma Bravo.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The new chief executive of FTX, an insolvency professional who oversaw the liquidation of Enron, has said that the bankruptcy of the crypto group is the worst case of corporate failure he has seen in more than 40 years.
John Ray III, who was appointed to run the FTX bankruptcy, said in a US court filing that he had never seen “such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information”.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange recently valued at $32 billion dollars, has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.
The filing in Delaware federal court on Friday included the main FTX international exchange, FTX US a US crypto marketplace, Sam Bankman-Fried’s proprietary trading group Alameda Research and about 130 affiliated companies.
In today's video we discuss what went wrong at FTX, and discuss the influencers who pitched FTX to their audiences.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The term robber baron is frequently used to describe men like Cornelius Vanderbilt, John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie, along with other powerful 19th-century American industrialists. These men came from nowhere and made fortunes building out Americas industrial infrastructure. In their pursuit of wealth, they put railroads in place, provided energy to American homes and manufactured the steel that built American cities. Many of the 19th Century American industrialists ended up giving away the majority of their fortunes in great acts of philanthropy. Is it right to call them Robber Barons?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Forms & Focus Podcast
Increased focus so you can accomplish your dreams.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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China’s crackdown on property developers and its “Zero Covid" policy are harming its economy and the economies of countries selling raw materials to China. But there is an upside to Xi's actions, these policies are reducing inflationary pressures in the rest of the world.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Russian oligarchs have kept their money in London for twenty years, encouraged by British bankers' lawyers and politicians. Critics say that the 'London laundromat' cleans dirty money from kleptocrats all over the world. This video looks at where dirty money comes from, how money laundering works why it took Russia's invasion of Ukraine to put this issue in the spotlight.
From One Hyde Park to Bishops Avenue. Where is oligarch money kept in London?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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The United States has introduced new export controls to restrict Chinese companies access to the most advanced computer chips which can be used to develop cutting-edge technologies with military applications.
The commerce department announced these restrictions last week which will make it extremely difficult for Chinese companies to obtain or manufacture advanced computer chips and will slow their progress in artificial intelligence.
The measures are also designed to make it much tougher for China to develop supercomputers with military applications that range from modelling nuclear weapons to developing hypersonic weapons.
These restrictions come days before the Chinese Communist party holds its 20th national congress at which President Xi Jinping is expected to seal a third term as leader.
Book Suggestion: Chip War by Chris Miller https://amzn.to/3yA3Xmg
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Foresight: The CPA Podcast
Hear about how sustainability is integrating into the business world.
Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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The Bank of England had to step in to calm markets after the British government's economic plan sparked a fall in the pound and caused borrowing costs to surge.
The Bank warned that if the market volatility continued there would be a "material risk to UK financial stability."
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The British pound plummeted on Friday after the government announced huge tax cuts in its mini-budget. It then plunged again on Monday, reaching $1.04 - the lowest level the pound has ever been against the dollar. Why is the British Pound Falling?
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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From 1991 through 2001, Japan experienced a period of economic stagnation and price deflation known as "Japan's Lost Decade." This was caused by the collapse of an asset price bubble in late 1991. The term originally referred to the 1990s, but the 2000s and the 2010s can be added to the list due to the country’s economic stagnation. We’ll look at the postwar Japanese economic miracle, the bubble economy of the late 1980’s and the lost decades that Japan has experienced since. We will also discuss any overlaps between the Japanese Economic miracle and the last thirty years of growth that has been seen in China – and discuss to what extent history could repeat itself.
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy – Yale University: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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The Future Is Freelance
This show is for freelancers, sole traders, solopreneurs, digital nomads, consultants,...
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Vladimir Putin announced in a speech last month that Russia had weathered the worst of the Economic sanctions imposed by Western nations. He said that “gloomy predictions about the Russian economy’s future didn’t come true” and that the sanctions had hit foreign economies much harder than they had hit Russia. He added that “The weaponry of sanctions is a double-edged sword… and European countries had dealt a serious blow to their own economies all on their own.” So are the sanctions on Russia working? Or Is Russia winning the Economic War?
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy – Yale University: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Mortgage Connects, an MGIC Podcast
Insights and tips from top mortgage industry pros!
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John Keely was the founder of the Keely Motor Company. He announced that he had discovered a new physical force, one that, if harnessed, would produce unheard-of power. He claimed to be able to produce from a quart of water enough fuel to move a 30-car train from Philadelphia to New York City.
Scientists and engineers scoffed at his unverified claims. After his death, an investigation was carried out, and examination of his apparatus - a supposed perpetual motion machine - showed that, rather than a new force, tubes of compressed air or a form of hydraulic power activated the machinery.
In today's video we see if there are any lessons investors can learn from the story of John Ernst Worrell Keely.
Book Link: Voodoo Science by Robert Park: https://amzn.to/3BrKTsc
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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In China, a major financial crisis is unfolding. A few months ago, four rural lenders in the northern province of Henan froze the deposits of hundreds of thousands of customers and Chinese citizens in 86 cities are boycotting mortgage payments towards their homes. Confidence in the financial sector has plunged. In this video we look at the story behind the bank scandals.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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The United States and China appear to have reached a landmark deal that would allow Chinese companies to remain listed on US exchanges, halting the threatened delisting of about 200 stocks that trade in New York.
The announcement by US and Chinese regulators is a breakthrough after a prolonged standstill. Beijing has not allowed foreign regulators to inspect Chinese company audits, citing a desire to protect state secrets. US law requires Chinese companies to leave American stock exchanges if they do not comply with the countries audit rules.
The US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, announced on Friday that it would have the power to select the companies, audit engagements and potential violations it inspects and investigates, without consulting Chinese authorities.
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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The first global financial crisis erupted in the autumn of 1987 on a day known as “Black Monday.” A chain reaction of market distress sent stock exchanges around the world plummeting in a matter of hours. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22.6 percent in a single trading session, a loss that remains the largest one-day stock market decline in history. At the time, it marked the sharpest market downturn in the United States since the Great Depression.
In today's video we look at the causes of the 1987 crash, discuss program trading and portfolio insurance and how the crash forever changes stock markets around the world.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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Stories and Strategies for Public Relations
Communication is in every facet of our daily business.
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Rising energy prices could push UK inflation as high as 18% next year according to Citi. European gas prices rose sharply this week due to supply fears, after Gazprom Russia’s energy firm announced it would shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline - the main gas supply line to Europe - to complete three days of unplanned maintenance.
Right now, Britain and the EU are in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis driven by energy inflation. What can be done to prevent this from happening again?
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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This Tuesday Joe Biden signed into law a sweeping tax, healthcare, and climate bill, called the Inflation Reduction Act, a significantly pared back version of the “Build Back Better Plan” which he was pushing for last year.
Fans of the new law claim that it will improve citizens’ finances while reducing the federal deficit and critics say it will lead to higher taxes for individuals and corporations, and that it will be ineffective at dampening inflation. Let’s look at the new legislation and try and work out to what extent it might reduce inflation which has been at its highest rate in around 40 years and see who the winners and losers are.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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This week, let's talk about Cathie Wood and The Ark Invest Disruptive Innovation Fund to see if there is anything we can learn from the rise and fall of ARKK? What mistakes do investors make when selecting funds to invest in.
Jack Schwager - Market Sense & Nonsense: https://amzn.to/3SKBRgt
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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In late June, Sri Lanka’s prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe announced that the country’s economy had “collapsed.” There was no money left to pay for imports of necessities like food, fuel and medicine, and the country was seeking help from neighboring countries and the IMF.
Sri Lanka is going through its worst economic crisis since it gained independence from Britain almost 75 years ago. In today's video we ask the question, "What Killed Sri Lanka's Economy?"
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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In 2013 President Xi Jinping announced the launch of his signature policy, the Belt and Road Initiative, the largest transnational infrastructure program ever undertaken by a single country. Today though, many of the loans financing these huge infrastructure projects are going bad and going bad in record numbers.
Today's video looks at the Belt and Road Initiative, how the projects are going and how recent events like Russia's invasion of Ukraine are affecting debtor nations like Sri Lanka, who defaulted on their sovereign debt in May of this year.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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This Tuesday, Twitter’s sued Elon Musk to force him to honor his legally binding agreement to buy the company. Twitter asked the Delaware Court of Chancery to fast-track a trial for September. According to the complaint “Musk apparently believes that he — unlike every other party subject to Delaware contract law — is free to change his mind, trash the company, disrupt its operations, destroy stockholder value, and walk away.”
The Delaware court will examine the case on its merits and lawyers are suggesting that Musk’s defense is weak, if not laughable. “We will finally see if Elon Musk is ‘above the law,” according to John Coffee of Columbia Law School. “I am confident that in the Delaware courts the answer is no.” he told the FT.
Gods at War by Steven Davidoff Solomon: https://amzn.to/3uNpPJ1
Twitter Merger Agreement: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522176753/d283119dprer14a.htm#toc283119_94
Elon Musk Cancellation Letter: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922078413/tm2220599d1_ex99-p.htm
The Twitter Lawsuit: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rvMR5WrmwCGQ/v0
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Last week, three DeFi (decentralized finance) groups stepped in with emergency plans to protect their projects and users from economic turbulence in the face of collapsing cryptocurrency prices.
These DeFi crypto networks which had pledged to put users in control ended up taking charge themselves in order to survive the ongoing crisis in the digital asset market.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Patrick Boyle On Finance - YouTube Channel
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Inflation has turned from transitory to pernicious, with some economists even raising the specter of a 1970s-style wage-price spiral. Should you reposition your investment portfolio for an inflationary environment, shifting some of your money to sectors or asset classes that tend to do well during inflationary periods? Or should you leave your investments alone and let the markets control their long-term destiny? In today’s video we look at market history to see how securities prices are affected by inflation, interest rates and interest rate hikes.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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Link to the Dimson Marsh & Staunton Investment Returns Yearbook
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Blitzscaling is what you do when you need to grow really, really quickly according to Reid Hoffmann the Founder of LinkedIn, and Elon Musk’s former partner at PayPal. Blitzscaling is high-impact entrepreneurship, it’s the science and art of rapidly building out a company to serve a large and usually global market, with the goal of becoming the first mover at scale.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Russian Oligarchs have become synonymous with superyachts, luxury mansions and the shady political maneuvering of post-Soviet Russia. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian billionaires like Roman Abramovich, Vladimir Potanin, Alisher Usmanov and Oleg Deripaska have been all over the news.
The word Oligarch conjures up images of opportunistic, well-connected businessmen who made billions by plundering the remains of the collapsed Soviet state. But how exactly did Russia’s oligarchs get so rich?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead according to António Guterres, the UN secretary general. He warned earlier this week that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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The $1.3tn cryptocurrency industry was on Thursday hit by one of its toughest challenges when stablecoin Tether — a critical cog in the market — failed to maintain its link with the US dollar. The company refuses to provide details on the Treasury holdings that back the stablecoin claiming their fear of revealing the ‘secret sauce.’
Tether tumbled as low as 95.11 cents yesterday, far below the $1 peg that it seeks to maintain. Its price later recovered, but the slip-up, days after the failure of smaller algorithmic stablecoin rival TerraUSD, (and its paired coin Luna) sent bitcoin — the world’s biggest digital asset — sinking to its lowest level since late 2020.
Ratings group Fitch said the troubles at Tether and TerraUSD “highlight the fragile nature of private stablecoins, and will accelerate calls for regulation”.
In todays video we look at how algorithmic stablecoins like Terra work, we discuss their importance in DeFi and smart contracts.
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Xi Jinping has reaffirmed his commitment to China’s controversial zero-Covid strategy, warning against “any slackening” in the effort and vowing to crack down on criticism of the policy despite signs of damage to the economy.
“Our prevention and control policies can withstand the test of history; our measures are scientific and effective. We have won the battle to defend Wuhan, we can also win the battle to defend Shanghai,” the statement said.
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Bill Hwang, founder of Archegos Capital Management, has been arrested by US authorities and charged with racketeering, fraud and market manipulation.
The indictment accuses Hwang and former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan, of using Archegos as an “instrument of market manipulation and fraud” with “far-reaching consequences for other participants in the United States securities markets”.
The case marks the first criminal charges against Hwang, one of the so-called Tiger Cub veterans of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management fund whose little-known investment vehicle rattled some of Wall Street’s biggest financial institutions when it imploded a year ago.
Archegos’s collapse caused billions of dollars of losses for investment banks including Credit Suisse, UBS, Nomura and Morgan Stanley after it defaulted on margin calls, with more than $100bn wiped from the valuations of nearly a dozen companies as Archegos’s positions were unwound.
The group used borrowed money from banks such as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse to amass multibillion-dollar positions in US-listed companies such as ViacomCBS — now known as Paramount — and online retailers Shopify and Farfetch. By using derivatives known as Total Return Swaps, where the bank it traded with bought or sold stocks on Archegos’s behalf, the firm left no visible footprint of its activity to the investing public.
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Elon Musk - The world’s richest man has allegedly hired the investment bank Morgan Stanley and is trying to gather financing, so he can buy Twitter for $43 billion.
According to The New York Times, Musk is evaluating various packages of debt and a loan against his shares of Tesla. Apollo Global Management, an alternative asset manager, is among the parties considering offering debt financing. The equity he needs is likely to be sizable.
Last week, Elon Musk, made an unsolicited offer for the social media company, saying that he wanted to take it private and that he wanted people to be able to speak more freely on the service. But his offer was regarded skeptically by Wall Street because he did not include details about how he would come up with the money for the deal. It is unclear if Elon Musk’s cash raising efforts will be successful.
While Twitter’s board has not rejected Mr. Musk’s offer, it responded days later with a defensive tactic known as a “poison pill.” A poison pill would effectively prevent Mr. Musk from owning more than 15 percent of Twitter’s shares. Musk has been building his stake in Twitter since January and owns more than 9 percent of the company, making him at one point its single-biggest individual shareholder.
In today's video we look at how serious his bid is, the likelihood that he will succeed in buying Twitter, How the financing might work, and how poison pills work in blocking corporate raiders.
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The sanctions on Russia’s central bank use the reserve currency status of the US dollar to punish an American adversary. Will the US dollar lose its exorbitant privilege? What currency might replace the US Dollar as a reserve currency?
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Vladimir Putin has demanded payment in roubles for Russian gas sold to “unfriendly” countries, setting a deadline of 31 March for the transition.
It is not clear whether he plans to tear up existing contracts that set the price in euros or dollars, but Germany, which relies on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, is not taking any chances, warning large industrial gas users that a standoff is possible and rationing is one possible outcome.
In todays video we ask why payment for Russian exports in rubles has become a major issue for the Kremlin, and whether Putin could extend the plan to include exports of oil, grain, fertilizers, coal, metals and other key commodities.
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As the clock runs down to Monday's sanctions deadline for Russian airlines to hand back more than 450 leased planes worth almost $10 billion, foreign lessors are fast losing hope that they will get their planes back. As the owners rushed to repossess the planes, the Kremlin moved quickly to block this by passing a law allowing foreign airplanes to be re-registered in Russia, effectively nationalizing them.
Aviation was an early business casualty of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, as the West and Russia imposed tit-for-tat airspace bans. Now, lessors face big write-downs or a long insurance battle as the March 28 deadline looms for terminating plane leases under European Union sanctions.
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In markets, there are few principles considered more important by traders than the idea that when a commitment to a deal is made, it should stand come what may.
So, there was uproar in the commodities market last week over the London Metal Exchange’s decision to bring the global nickel market to a halt and cancel futures trades because of a “short squeeze” on a Chinese tycoon facing potential billions of dollars of losses.
In one of the most controversial moments in its 145-year history, the LME cancelled an entire days’ worth of trades after a near doubling of the price of nickel, a metal used in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries.
The rally, partially sparked off by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, had left Xiang Guangda, the tycoon behind Tsingshan Holding, China’s leading stainless steel and nickel manufacturing group, unable to meet demands for extra cash on a huge bearish bet that backfired. The LME believes that if had it forced the settlement of the trades, it would have bankrupted some of its smaller members and its decision was “in the interests of the market as a whole”.
In today’s video we look at what happened in the nickel market and how it is working itself out.
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The UK announced new sanctions yesterday relating to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, targeting seven oligarchs with links to Vladimir Putin. Among them is Roman Abramovich, the owner of Chelsea FC.
In today's video we try to answer three questions: Who owns Chelsea FC right now? What happens with the other Russian assets being seized around the world? And, what happens with Russian financial assets like stocks and bonds that westerners own that have stopped trading due to the new sanctions?
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In Today’s podcast we discuss if the west can place an embargo on Russian energy exports?
Western leaders have threatened Vladimir Putin with sweeping sanctions over his invasion of Ukraine but, they have been clear that they would avoid disrupting energy supplies.
Hitting energy exports is no longer as due to the brutality of Putin’s war and the idea of targeting oil and gas exports is no longer off the table — even if it damages western economies in the process.
Canada - a tiny buyer of Russian energy, has blocked crude imports and in the US, President Joe Biden is under mounting pressure from a diverse coalition of Republicans and Democrats, to ban Russian oil and gas.
How would this affect the global oil markets or impact inflation in the west?
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine risks disrupting the export of critical commodities and rupturing supply chains. Industries from food to cars and fertilizer makers to aircraft manufacturers will be hit by disruption to exports.
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The US President said on Thursday that the United States and Europe were united in their efforts to confront Russian aggression toward Ukraine with aggressive sanctions. However, there was one area where he suggested that there was some disagreement: SWIFT.
The messaging service, called the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, connects more than 11,000 financial institutions around the world. It is viewed as a potential nuclear option in the world of sanctions because, if Russia was kicked off SWIFT, the nation would essentially be severed from much of the global financial system.
But doing so would not be simple and could come with its own set of complications for countries outside Russia.
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A married couple has been arrested and charged with laundering billions in Bitcoin stolen during the 2016 Bitfinex hack, as the Justice Department announced its largest financial seizure ever.
Ilya 'Dutch' Lichtenstein, and his wife, Heather Rhiannon Morgan aka Razzlekhan or The Crocodile of Wall Street, were arrested on Tuesday in Manhattan on federal charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to defraud the United States.
Federal law enforcement officials said they recovered roughly $3.6 billon in cryptocurrency linked to the hack of Bitfinex, a virtual currency exchange whose systems were breached nearly six years ago.
Dutchy & The Croc live on Wall Street in lower Manhattan. He is a citizen of both Russia and the United States and the co-founder of an online marketing firm.
Morgan, a rapper and former Forbes contributor, describes herself as 'an expert in persuasion, social engineering, and game theory' and in one of her songs, declared herself the 'Crocodile of Wall Street.'
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US criminal authorities are gathering information on contacts among dozens of short selling hedge funds and research outfits as they investigate possible trading abuses by hedge funds. This comes after complaints from GameStop and AMC Shareholders.
The Department of Justice has sent subpoenas asking for information about a list of more than two dozen firms to a smaller group of market participants. Among other things, they are asking for calendar information and communications.
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China’s Economy Is Slowing Which Could Have Big Consequences for the World.
Economic output grew four percent in the last quarter, a slowdown from the previous quarter. Growth faltered as home buyers and consumers became more cautious. Construction and property sales have slumped, as the country grapples with power shortages, Covid-related restrictions, a crackdown on a range of companies, and debt troubles in its property sector. Some of those pressures could ease, but China’s economy may be on the path to slowing down for a while still—and that could have global ramifications.
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In the United States, the government is not the only entity legally allowed to issue money. Private citizens and businesses are allowed to do so, too, and throughout U.S. history, they have done this. This type of money is referred to as private money, and it had mostly disappeared from circulation until Bitcoin was created in 2009. Today more than eight thousand cryptocurrencies exist, and more are appearing every day.
Why were private currencies so popular, and why are they coming back today?
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During the pandemic, house prices have increased even faster than they did in the period leading up to the 2007 financial crisis, stoking concern that another dangerous housing bubble is developing. In this week's podcast we compare the current real estate market to the bubble years before the global financial crisis of 2007-2008
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On Monday we saw the fraud conviction of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes. This conviction we are told in the press has split Silicon Valley. Supporters worry that the spirit of entrepreneurship has been put in ‘jeopardy’ while others say she overstepped boundaries.
Tim Draper, a venture capitalist and family friend of Holmes who provided early funding to Theranos, told the New York Times that the outcome made him “concerned that the spirit of entrepreneurship in America is in jeopardy”. He went on to say “I still believe in what she was trying to do, If this scrutiny happened to every entrepreneur as they tried to make this world a better place, we would have no automobile, no smartphone, no antibiotics and no automation, and our world would be less for it.”
We have more corporate fraud trials in the pipeline. Former Nikola CEO Trevor Milton is scheduled to go on trial for criminal fraud shortly. He has pled not guilty to lying to investors about the electric truck company’s technology. Nikola Motors went public through a SPAC merger under Milton’s leadership.
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Let’s look back at the big financial events of 2021 and the lessons we learned. 2021 was an exciting year in markets, we had meme stocks, SPACs, hedge fund blow ups and the mainstreaming of crypto. The stock market went from strength to strength this year. The year started out with the short squeezes in GameStop and then AMC.
As global economies bounced back from the pandemic, supply chains buckled due to shortages either of goods or people to deliver them. The squeeze on the labor market pushed up wages, and the press was filled with tales of the great resignation. We saw soaring oil and commodities prices and the collapse of Chinese property giant Evergrande but none of this could derail investor exuberance. Stock markets and house prices took off in 2021.
In the world of geopolitics, the first big story of the year was Brexit - Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. On top of this, the tensions between the United States and China was a big theme and may remain so in 2022. As the year comes to an end, Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine are raising concerns worldwide.
2021 was a big year for IPO’s, 1058 companies went public over the course of the year. As crypto went mainstream, we saw every social media influencer launch their own coin or NFT project. So, let’s look back at some of the biggest stories of the year.
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Having defied internal and external economic logic by repeatedly cutting interest rates, Erdogan opted this week for a new set of measures to stabilize its currency. What should we make of Turkey’s latest currency move?
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The Turkish lira has been in meltdown as President Erdogan rejected warnings on the dangers of his recent interest rate cuts. He vowed that there was “no going back”.
The currency, which has lost about 40 per cent of its value against the dollar since the central bank started lowering borrowing costs in September, fell to a new record low of TL18.36 against the dollar on Monday
Trading on Turkey’s main stock exchange was halted for the second consecutive session following a 5 per cent decline for the flagship index.
The Turkish president, said in a televised speech on Sunday night “Don’t expect anything else from me, as a Muslim, I will continue to do whatever the religious decrees require.”
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Chinese creditors have sued Evergrande for more than $13 billion dollars in as domestic companies owed money by the property development firm race against offshore bondholders to get paid.
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Link for next suggested piece: Chinese State Owned Developers Rescue Local Governments! - YouTube
Investors are waiting for news about tens of millions of dollars of overdue interest payments owed by Chinese Property Developers Evergrande and Kaisa. The firms both appear to be overdue on payments to bond holders. Evergrande's shares closed at a new record low on Wednesday after falling by 5.5% in Hong Kong trade.
If, Evergrande did fail to make these payments on time, the stage could be set for a massive default by the world's most indebted property developer. It could trigger "cross default" on Evergrande's roughly $19bn of international bonds, putting it at risk of becoming China's biggest defaulter.
A cross default is a provision in a bond or loan agreement that puts a borrower in default if they default on another obligation. Fears about Evergrande's future and the impact of its potential collapse have been looming over the world's second-largest economy for months.
There are some precedents for what is going on in this situation. The Chinese government has taken control of other heavily indebted companies through similar mechanisms in recent years, the best example being HNA Group, which was effectively taken over by local government officials early last year. HNA’s insolvency is the biggest bankruptcy that China has seen since introducing its first bankruptcy law in 2007. A bankruptcy of this size is to a certain extent uncharted territory as less than 100 listed companies have ever gone through bankruptcy proceedings in China.
Additionally, trading in shares of embattled property developer Kaisa was suspended in Hong Kong. In an announcement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Kaisa did not give a reason for the halt in trading. However, it came after reports that Kaisa was unlikely to be able to meet a $400m offshore debt deadline on Tuesday.
Kaisa is China's biggest holder of offshore debt among developers after Evergrande.
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Just five months after going public on the New York Stock Exchange, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Global said it plans to delist from the New York Stock Exchange and pursue a Hong Kong listing as it bends to Chinese regulators angered by its US IPO.
“Following careful research, the company will immediately start delisting on the New York stock exchange and start preparations for listing in Hong Kong,” Didi said on its Twitter-like Weibo account on Friday.
Didi did not explain its reasons for the plan but said in a separate statement it would organize a shareholder vote at an appropriate time and ensure its New York-listed stock would be convertible into “freely tradable shares” on another internationally recognized stock exchange.
$DIDI
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Short squeezes have been all over the news this year as retail investors banded together to spoil the fun for hedge funds in some well-known stocks. Short squeezes are not new though, they’ve been around as long as short selling has. In today’s video we look at the most disastrous short selling fails to see what lessons we can learn. These are some of the craziest finance stories you will ever hear!
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A few weeks ago, I made a video on how the world of investing has changed over the last few years. I explained how much easier investing had become in 2021, as there is much less of a need for the type of analysis people used to do in the past. The trick today is to invest in things that seem funny, and hope that Elon Musk then tweets about them. In today's video I lay out my investment plan for 2022.
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In 2005, Stanford medical professor John Ioannidis published a bombshell essay titled “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”, which noted that the results of many medical research papers could not be replicated by other researchers. Subsequently, several other fields have turned a harsh eye on themselves and come to similar conclusions. The heart of the issue is a phenomenon that researchers call “p-hacking”.
Campbell Harvey, a professor of finance at Duke university argues that at least half of the 400 market-beating strategies identified in top financial journals over the years are false too.
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Chinese state-owned developers are rescuing cash-strapped local governments in China by stepping to the fore at land auctions previously dominated by private sector groups like Evergrande.
State-owned bidders include highly leveraged local government finance vehicles, which have traditionally focused on infrastructure projects rather than real estate. LGFVs have accounted for about one third of land purchases by value at auctions since September, compared with just over 10 per cent earlier in the year.
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JP Morgan Chase is suing Tesla for $162 million over tweets in 2018 by Technoking Elon Musk that he would take the electric vehicle maker private.
JP Morgan accuses Tesla of "flagrantly" breaching a deal it claims should have triggered payments to JP Morgan.
JP Morgan's suit, filed in a Manhattan federal court, says that Tesla sold warrants to JP Morgan allowing the bank to purchase shares if the "strike" price was below Tesla's share price when the warrants expired in 2021.
"We have provided Tesla multiple opportunities to fulfil its contractual obligations, so it is unfortunate that they have forced this issue into litigation," a spokesperson for JP Morgan said in a statement.
The warrants contained standard provisions from an ISDA agreement that allow JP Morgan to adjust the strike price to protect both parties against the economic effects of "significant corporate transactions involving Tesla," such as an announcement the company was going private.
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In China, there is no better sell-signal than when the president, starts attacking an industry.
So when Xi said in March that home-schooling was a “stubborn malady” that was putting too much pressure on Chinese children and their parents, the executives of two Chinese tutoring companies dumped their shares in New York according to records found by the FT.
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The Federal Reserve warned that fragility in China’s commercial real-estate sector could spread to the U.S. if it deteriorates dramatically, as investor focus turns to China Evergrande Group’s biggest payment test yet.
The Fed’s stability report, which is meant to highlight risks that could undermine the financial system, said that “stresses in China could strain global financial markets through a deterioration of risk sentiment, pose risks to global economic growth, and affect the United States.”
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Federal regulators requested more power from Congress to regulate stablecoins, a fast-growing type of cryptocurrency that they warn could result in bank runs and consumer abuse unless lawmakers act quickly, according to a report issued Monday by the Treasury Department.
The report, which was undertaken by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, called on Congress to pass a law that makes issuers of stablecoins subject to requirements like those of traditional banks and financial institutions. Such a change would require that those institutions hold adequate reserves to ensure they can meet the demands of customers to cash out quickly.
The call for congressional action comes at a pivotal moment, as cryptocurrencies are exploding in growth with limited federal oversight in place to regulate them.
Stablecoins, have not always proved as securely backed as companies claim, which the Treasury report warns could pose significant problems for customers, investors and the overall financial system.
Some regulatory powers already exist, the report said, including the ability of the Securities and Exchange Commission and other federal agencies to police certain stablecoin issuers.
But after months of studying the growing risks presented by stablecoins, the leaders of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets said they had identified regulatory gaps that legislators must address, essentially throwing the issue to Congress.
Here is a link to the report: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/StableCoinReport_Nov1_508.pdf
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Zillow, the digital real estate company, said on Tuesday that it’s exiting Offers, its business that buys and flips homes, and eliminating 25% of its workforce.
The announcement was attached to Zillow’s third-quarter earnings report. The company’s revenue and earnings missed analysts’ estimates.
“We’ve determined the unpredictability in forecasting home prices far exceeds what we anticipated,” Zillow CEO Rich Barton said in the release. “Continuing to scale Zillow Offers would result in too much earnings and balance-sheet volatility.”
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The anonymous scammers behind a Squid Game cryptocurrency have officially pulled the rug on the project, making off with an estimated $2.1 million. Investors were able to purchase the crypto but couldn’t sell it.
The SQUID cryptocurrency peaked at a price of $2,861 before plummeting to $0 around 5:40 a.m. ET., according to the website CoinMarketCap. This kind of theft, commonly called a “rug pull” by crypto investors, happens when the creators of the crypto quickly cash out their coins for real money, draining the liquidity pool from the exchange.
The SQUID crypto coin was launched just last week and included plenty of red flags, including a three-week old website filled with bizarre spelling and grammatical errors. The website, hosted at SquidGame.cash, has disappeared, along with every other social media presence set up by the scammers.
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https://teamseas.org/
The Tragedy of the Commons is an economic idea made popular by the American ecologist Garrett Hardin, who used the analogy of ranchers grazing their animals on a common field. Individual ranchers will seek to add additional livestock, to increase their profits. The benefit of adding additional animals accrue to the rancher alone, while the costs are shared. The tragedy is that ultimately the field will be destroyed, due to overconsumption. This scenario is played out on a daily basis in numerous instances, having grave consequences for the world’s resources.
In todays video we discuss the research of Lin Ostrom (the first woman to win The Nobel Prize in Economics). Ostrom - based upon her research - did not believe that the “tragedy” in such situations was inevitable. Her research showed that if the herders decided to cooperate with one another, monitoring each other’s use of the land and enforcing rules for managing it, they could avoid the tragedy.
Todays video is associated with #TeamSeas - a group of YouTube content creators, lead by "Mister Beast" raising money to remove plastic waste from the ocean.
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In this video we look at meme coins and learn about the Elon Markets Hypothesis. Patrick explains why he is all in on Shibu Inu.
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Do Companies Buy S&P500 Membership? A new working paper attempts to figure out why some companies make it into the blue-chip stock market index.
In recent years there has been a huge shift away from active asset management and towards passive, index-tracking funds. The indices that these funds follow have in turn gained enormous power, becoming gatekeepers to the flow of trillions of dollars.
Names like S&P Dow Jones, FTSE Russell and MSCI are the biggest index providers and earn huge revenues from charging funds licensing fees. But a new scandal questions the integrity of Standard & Poor’s - the provider of one of the most tracked indices.
A working paper recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that companies that bought credit ratings from S&P Global’s rating business were statistically more likely to be included in the S&P 500.
S&P argues that the paper, which has not been peer-reviewed, is “flawed” and misleading about the index’s eligibility rules and methodology. S&P also insists that it has a strict separation of business lines. To be sure, some of the paper’s claims may seem overdone, given that S&P is a major player in both the credit rating and index-provision business. A company may naturally seek a credit rating to assist in its expansion efforts that would in any case propel it into the index.
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The SEC published its report on GameStop $GME this Monday, which focuses on the January 2021 trading activity of GameStop Corp (GME), the most famous of the "meme stocks." Because the meme stock episode raised several questions about market structure, the staff report also provides an overview of the equity and options market structure for individual investors.
The SEC Report on GameStop: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-212
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The first bitcoin-linked ETF is scheduled to make its NYSE debut officially on Tuesday morning.
The new ETF from ProShares, will track the bitcoin futures market and trade on the NYSE under the ticker “BITO.”
According to ProShares a multitude of investors have been eagerly awaiting the launch of a bitcoin-linked ETF after years of efforts to launch one, BITO will open up exposure to bitcoin to a large segment of investors who have a brokerage account and are comfortable buying stocks and ETFs, but do not desire to go through the hassle and learning curve of establishing another account with a cryptocurrency provider ... or are concerned that these providers may be unregulated and subject to security risks.
In Todays video we discuss how these futures based ETF’s work, why they are different to a regular equity ETF, and why they are not expected to track the returns of Bitcoin as precisely as many investors might expect.
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A small London based crypto asset trading platform called DeversiFi got quite a shock two weeks ago when it mistakenly paid out a $24m fee to a large crypto miner. Transferring crypto deposits generates a fee, known in the industry as a “gas fee”, to compensate miners for the computing energy used to verify transactions on the blockchain. DeversiFi should have paid out around $5, but instead transferred 23.7 million dollars due to an error in their code.
A few fat finger errors like this in the crypto space have made it into the press in recent months. Compound another DeFi project accidentally handed tokens worth $90m to its users and its owner threatened to report the recipients to the IRS before later backing down. Alchemix - another DeFi protocol forgave 4.8 million dollars of borrowers’ loans prematurely, essentially giving them free money. Once again, almost everyone returned the funds once the error was pointed out.
Most modern trading software has built in controls to prevent huge fat finger mistakes from occurring. This protects both traders and brokerages from the losses that can come from these mistakes. In addition exchanges have rules in place to allow traders to request cancellation of fat finger errors. Most exchanges require you to request a cancellation within thirty minutes of the trades execution.
So, for today’s video let’s look at some of the biggest fat finger mistakes in recent market history and see what lessons we can learn.
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PricewaterhouseCoopers earned over forty million dollars in fees auditing China Evergrande and signed off on the accounts presented to them by management for all of those years. PWC is likely to face criticism over the level of push back they gave to management over accounting policies that could have shown warning signs about the company’s financial health many years before the collapse.
Around the world, auditors have faced criticism when companies have collapsed, and auditor negligence cases have become more common in recent years. In the UK The Financial Reporting Council has begun a probe into the accountancy firms that audited Greensill Capital and Wyelands Bank, a bank controlled by Sangeev Gupta which lent money to his other firms and is central to the Greensill scandal.
NMC Health, Luckin Coffee and Wirecard are three recent financial scandals and one factor that they have in common, is that EY, through its affiliates in various countries, was the auditor for all three.
A British high court ordered EY to pay a large settlement to a former partner in Dubai last year, for retaliating against him for blowing the whistle on an alleged money-laundering scheme by a client.
These cases have dealt a series of heavy blows to EY’s credibility and integrity, even though EY has said it was unaware of longtime financial shenanigans by its clients and was duped along with everyone else.
The quality of Evergrande’s assets is also likely be one of the main issues picked over if the lid is lifted by its creditors.
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China’s crackdown on property developers threatens the London property market.
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, sparked fears across global markets as it missed a crucial interest deadline on its offshore debts. This week, another developer, Fantasia, defaulted on an offshore bond. A property consultant close to London’s development market was contacted in the wake of the Evergrande crisis by a UK regulator with concerns about the risks of contagion in London. “The big question is whether the Chinese will restrict investment overseas,” he said. “That would be a pretty big crisis in the UK and elsewhere.” Between 2013 and 2018, buyers from mainland China and Hong Kong poured close to £3.5bn into London, accounting for almost the entire flow of cross-border investment into the city’s land in 2017, according to Real Capital Analytics.
Thousands of high-end flats bankrolled by Chinese developers lie unfinished and unsold in Central London as Chinese developers come under pressure from the “three red lines” that seek to curb excessive leverage across the Chinese property sector by limiting the amount property companies can borrow. Could Evergrande impact global property prices?
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Revelations from nearly 12 million leaked confidential financial records have thrown light on the concealed wealth of powerful public figures around the world. How do they hide their money, and why is this information important?
The Pandora Papers were released this week showing that Jordan’s King - Abdullah II amassed $100 million in property including homes in The United States and London. An alleged mistress of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s leader managed to covertly buy a luxury residence in Monaco. Tony & Cherie Blair used a company structure avoiding paying Stamp duty on their London home. The Czech Republic’s prime minister, an anticorruption crusader, secretly acquired a French Riviera estate.
Revelations from the Pandora Papers report, a collaboration by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and media partners that include The Washington Post and The Guardian, began reverberating through and beyond the financial world of the rich and powerful almost immediately after the authors started releasing them on Sunday. In Today’s video we look at what data was released, and to what extent does it matter. We Discuss why wealthy individuals have moved their wealth into South Dakota Trusts and away from Switzerland and The Cayman Islands.
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On the heels of Evergrande’s debt crisis, there are increasing signs of stress in China’s real estate market after Fantasia Holdings failed to make a bond payment.
Fantasia Holdings, a Chinese developer of luxury apartments missed $315 million in payments to lenders on Monday, sparking fears that financial strains in the country's outsized property sector are spreading beyond the troubled Evergrande conglomerate.
Fantasia Holdings, a Shenzhen-based developer, missed repaying $206 million worth of bonds that matured Monday, the company said in a stock exchange filing. It is now assessing "the potential impact on the financial condition and cash position of the group," it added.
Separately, the property management unit of Country Garden, China's second largest developer by sales after Evergrande, said in a filing that Fantasia had failed to repay a company loan of about 700 million yuan ($109 million). Fantasia had informed the company that it would probably "default on [its] external debts," Country Garden Services added.
S&P and Moody's slapped "default" credit ratings on Fantasia and said the non-payment of principal would likely also put the company in default on its remaining bonds.
The downgrade follows Fantasia's announcement that it had missed payment on its $205.7 million bond due on the same day, and reflects the weak recovery prospects for Fantasia's bondholders after its default.
Evergrande & The Chinese Economy Video https://youtu.be/rQ0t964s-8Q
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Over the last month the news has been dominated by stories of energy shortages around the world. China has seen major industrial output cuts caused by power outages over the last year, European gas prices are trading near record highs and the UK is reeling from the political fallout of a surge in energy prices.
US oil prices rose to the highest level in seven years after OPEC and its allies declined to accelerate plans to increase crude production, snubbing calls from the White House to help tackle a growing global energy crunch.
This crisis in Europe might foreshadow future difficulties in the rest of the world as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut.
From container ships to cardboard, tighter environmental regulations are stoking shortages and price spikes as 'greenflation' takes a grip, adding a new twist to corporate valuations.
For all the inflation-is-transitory messages from central banks, double or triple-digit cost increases have become common on company balance sheets, although the green variety has yet to show up in bond markets, the usual early warning system.
While higher costs are partly down to pandemic-linked supply glitches, fund managers say a powerful impetus is emanating from stringent new rules to guide the world's transition to a greener future.
Aluminium, electricity and fertilizer are among sectors targeted, with others such as aviation in the EU crosshairs.
Investors largely agree greenflation is a necessary risk, because with the United Nations saying global warming is spiraling out of the control, the alternative of frequent floods, droughts and forest fires is worse. read more
The question facing fund managers is which companies will see a profit hit, which can pass costs on and which will thrive.
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In the latest of a series of crypto crackdowns, Chinas central bank announced on Friday that overseas facilities offering cryptocurrency services inside China are “illegal”. It warned that any local staff who help these businesses operate, or even provide marketing and technical support, “shall be investigated”. This is the most direct crackdowns by a major regulator against “offshore” exchanges that have proliferated as interest among traders has boomed in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Tether and other cryptocurrencies.
Many large crypto venues provide services in jurisdictions without having their operations, web servers and staff in those countries. These offshore venues often offer a wide variety of products, such as trading digital tokens in the “spot” market, derivatives like futures and even DeFi “yield” products that look similar to fixed-income securities.
In today’s video we analyze what this ban means, and whether other global regulators are likely to follow China with similar legislation. What does China's crypto ban mean? Will other countries follow?
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The financial woes of Evergrande the once-mighty Chinese property developer highlight a showdown between two competing objectives for China's Communist Party. They aim to force China's private sector away from speculative and risky lending practices while avoiding a financial meltdown and the collapse of the property sector, in which more than 70% of the nation's urban wealth is locked up.
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In an interview with local media, an Evergrande financial adviser said the products were a type of “supply chain finance”. While the money from retail investors may in years past have gone to its suppliers, the Evergrande executives in Shenzhen receiving retail investors said this was no longer the case.
One of the executives of Evergrande’s wealth management division said Hubei Gangdun was just a shell company. “Proceeds from the Wealth Management Products have been used to bridge various funding gaps faced by the parent company,” the executive said. “There is no need to thoroughly examine where the money actually went.
“Some WMP proceeds were used to repay previous products but sales plummeted, making it difficult for the business model to continue,” he admitted. - This is essentially the definition of a Ponzi Scheme.
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The liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer Evergrande shook global markets this morning with stocks falling in Asia, Europe and New York.
The S&P 500 fell 2.1 per cent in afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 2.6 per cent. The Vix, which measures expected volatility on the S&P, hit 26.5 — around its highest level since May.
Monday’s sell-off came after shares in Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, closed 10 per cent lower in Hong Kong to hit their weakest level since May 2010.
Concerns about the broader health of China’s real estate sector triggered a wider sell-off, sending the Hang Seng Property index, which tracks a dozen listed developers, down almost 7 per cent to its lowest point since 2016. At 24,099 points, Hong Kong’s broader Hang Seng index closed at its lowest level since last October.
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The implosion of Lehman Brothers, 13 years ago this week, showed the world how the collapse of a single company can send shockwaves around the world. Echoes from that event are resounding today as a massive Chinese property developer teeters on the brink of default.
The collapse of Evergrande Real Estate Group - China's second-largest property developer with $310 billion of debt outstanding, could set off a chain reaction that spreads overseas.
Wall Street is keeping a close eye on the situation, which highlights the extraordinary amount of borrowing Chinese companies and families have taken on over the years.
For now, investors seem confident that authorities in Beijing would use their vast control over the Chinese economy to limit the damage. And there is no evidence, at least so far, of contagion in US markets.
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The Beanie Babies Bubble is a particularly entertaining story which highlights all the hallmarks of a mania. Mass delusion. Speculation. Out of control expectations. The herd mentality.
Right now, it might appear that we are in another collectibles boom, in February this year, a Michael Jordan basketball card sold for $738,000 at auction. The exact same card had traded for more than half a million dollars less just a few weeks earlier. A Klon Centaur guitar effects pedal is being sold for half a million dollars. At Monterrey car week a McLaren F1 just sold for over $20 million dollars, and a pair of Kanye West’s trainers that he wore to the 2008 Grammys - became history's most expensive sneakers after selling for $1.8 million
So, should you as an investor buy beanie babies, Kanye west’s old shoes, NFT’s, meme coins or any other collectables? These are all running up in price right now, grown men are discussing their collections of Pokémon cards here on YouTube. Children’s entertainers like Logan Paul are selling cryptocurrencies and NFT’s to their audiences. Are these items a good investment, and if so - which are the best investment? We look at the long term returns of collectibles to see what your expected return might be?
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In today's podcast Patrick discusses the famous Warren Buffett quote “calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor “is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.” from his 1991 letter to investors.
Topics covered are: what is the difference between trading and investing? Is one better than the other, and does it make sense to discourage short term trading?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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According to Forbes Magazine there are 2,755 billionaires in the world today. The top five industries where they made their money are Finance, Technology, Manufacturing, Retail and Healthcare. It is rare to become a billionaire, but even more unusual to reach that level and then lose everything, but it is not unheard of.
Today we’ll look at ten one-time billionaires who later went bankrupt, and one whose net worth fell from eight billion dollars to two million dollars.
Some of the people on this list lost their money through unfortunate investments, some through engaging in criminal activity. One gained her billions through divorce and then squandered it all, and one just gave it all away.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Why don’t central bankers care about rising asset prices?
For most people their greatest expense is housing. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans spend almost 40% of their take home pay on shelter, this might lead you to ask - why aren’t home prices included in measures of inflation? And should they be? Is real inflation much higher than is being reported in the CPI because of asset price inflation?
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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Insider trading, or the act of buying or selling investments based on nonpublic information, is against the law in the United States and in most countries. At its core, insider trading benefits well connected investors at the expense of the general public and it has been illegal in the US since 1934 – at least for corporate insiders. I made a video a few months ago on the biggest insider trading scandals, and a lot you asked in the comments section “what about politicians”?
The STOCK act was passed in the wake of some controversies over stock trades around the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Its purpose was to stop members of Congress from using non-public information derived from their official positions for personal benefit.
In March of last year four U.S. senators (Kelly Loeffler, Dianna Feinstein, James Inhofe & Richard Burr) were accused of using insider information about the coronavirus pandemic to profit in the stock market. They dumped their stock holdings, including investments in travel companies, while telling the public to remain calm there was nothing to worry about. All four senators denied wrongdoing, insisting that they acted on public information and news reports and not on non-public information that they had received at senators-only briefings. The Senate Ethics Committee and the department of justice, looked into the matter eventually dropping all investigations without finding any wrongdoing.
Are things likely to change? Well, a bipartisan group of lawmakers have introduced a bill called the Ban Conflicted Trading Act banning members of Congress and senior staff from buying and selling stocks, most bonds and options contracts. This is intended to prevent lawmakers and high-level staffers from enriching themselves through trades based on potentially market-moving information.
Should Politicians Trade? What should be done about Congressional Insider Trading?
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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ESG (or environmental, social and governance) investing is one of the hottest things in markets right now, with large fund managers competing to be seen to take ESG more seriously than the next. Setting aside any moral judgements, the commercial rationale for the investment management industry is pretty clear: ESG funds have attracted about $350bn over the last two years, almost twice as much as the rest of the stock fund universe combined.
The opposite of ESG investing is investing in sin stocks (or vice investing) - a term for investing in companies that engage in a business or industry that's considered unethical, immoral, or unsavory. Today we take a look at the returns for each strategy.
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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Apostolos Trovias was recently arrested in Peru and charged by the SEC with perpetrating a fraudulent scheme to sell what he called "insider trading tips" on the Dark Web.
According to the complaint, Trovias, using the online avatar "TheBull" engaged in a deceptive scheme to sell "insider trading tips" on Dark Web marketplaces like Alpha Bay. The Bull claimed that the information he was selling consisted of order-book data from a securities trading firm that was provided to him by an employee of that firm. The complaint states that he acknowledged that this information was “sensitive and more importantly illegal to use or share”.
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Last week Janet Yellen called for rapid action to ensure there is an appropriate US regulatory framework in place for crypto-assets. A month ago the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said that banks’ exposures to crypto should carry the toughest capital requirements. Todays video looks at what consumer protections are in place for crypto investors today. What regulations protect you? What happens if you are hacked, or if a crypto exchange goes bust? What will the SEC do about Ponzi schemes, pump and dumps and rug pulls?
Patrick's Books:
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Today we are going to discuss the Irish Banking Strike of 1970 when all of the countries clearing banks closed for over six months, only to find themselves quickly replaced by local pubs. We will discuss if something like this could work again, and at the end of the video we will compare how the system that emerged compares to more modern ideas like cryptocurrencies.
Between 1966 and 1976, there were three major banking strikes in Ireland in which all of the clearing banks were closed. The Strike in 1970 was the longest of the three, where the banks were entirely closed for six and a half months. In the lead up to the strike, bank staff had been working short hours, and a backlog in check processing had built up. While the banks technically reopened in mid-November of 1970, it took them until February of 1971 to process the backlog of checks and resume normal working hours. So, all in all, the banks in Ireland were either closed or were offering severely reduced services for almost an entire year.
The video on John Law & The Mississippi Company: https://youtu.be/H5uKPUPQSyQ
Money in an Economy Without Banks by Antoin E. Murphy: https://www.mortgagebrokers.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Antoin-Murphy-Money-in-an-economy-without-banks-The-case-of-Ireland-bank-strike-paper.pdf
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SEC Charges Stable Road SPAC and Space Startup Momentus with Misleading Claims.
The SEC announced on Tuesday that it charged blank-check company Stable Road Acquisition Corp (SRAC.O), its sponsor SRC-NI, space exploration company Momentus Inc and two executives for misleading claims over their planned merger.
The SEC said the companies and Stable Road Acquisition Company Chief Executive Brian Kabot agreed to pay $8 million to resolve allegations they misled investors about Momentus Inc.'s technology and national security risks associated with its former CEO Mikhail Kokorich.
The entities, settled with the SEC without admitting or denying the allegations. An attorney for Kokorich, who is fighting the SEC's charges in court, said his client "looks forward to a resolution of this matter which is favorable to him."
This marks the latest escalation in the SEC's crackdown on Wall Street's special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, frenzy, which has reached a record over $100 billion this year.
The SEC's action is the first targeting all sides of a SPAC transaction as well as executives in an investigation that took under a year, an SEC official said.
According to the SEC, Kokorich and Momentus, an early-stage space transportation company, repeatedly told investors that it had "successfully tested" its propulsion technology in space, when its only in-space test had failed to achieve its primary objectives or demonstrate the technology's commercial viability.
The regulator also alleged that Momentus and Kokorich misrepresented the extent to which national security concerns involving Kokorich undermined Momentus' ability to secure governmental licenses essential to its operations. The SEC accused Stable Road, its sponsor and Kabot of negligence-based fraud.
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Companies across major sectors of the market are reassessing political donations in response to the January 6th storming of the U.S. Capitol, but it is too soon to know whether it leads to fundamental changes in the way money flows between politics and business. In this video we discuss whether companies should make political donations?
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DiDi is a Chinese Ride Hailing app that raised $4.4bn in its listing on the New York Stock exchange this Wednesday. This was the biggest Chinese listing in the US since Alibaba listed seven years ago.
The stock initially rallied, then two days later news broke that the Chinese regulators are investigating the company. They say they are doing this “in order to maintain national security and protect the public interest.” The stock fell 5.3 per cent on Friday to $15.52 on this announcement.
The Cyberspace Administration of China then went on to announce today that Didi’s app had “problems of seriously violating laws on collecting and using personal information”. They ordered that Didi be taken down from Chinese app stores. These actions are all based on China’s new cyber security review system, which is about a year old.
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Members of the leadership team at Lordstown Motors appear to have sold large amounts of company stock just before reports of various troubles at the company became public. Five top Lordstown executives—including president Rich Schmidt, now former chief financial officer Julio Rodriguez, and propulsion head Chuan "John" Vo—sold some of their shares worth a total of more than $8 million in early February when the stock was worth around $24 a share. Today, it's worth around $10.
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The Private Capital Industry Soars Beyond $7 Trillion
Over the past twenty years, the number of companies listed on the US stock market has almost halved. The world’s largest, most liquid public equity market would appear to have lost its shine.
Institutional investors have been piling into private markets instead, in particular venture capital, private equity and private debt. The Financial Times reported last week that the size of the private capital industry has now reached $7.4tn, fifteen times the size it was in 2000. The industry is expected to reach $13tn in the next four years.
On top of this, a boom in share buybacks, where companies purchase their own stock as an alternative to paying dividends, has further reduced the number of shares outstanding from the remaining public companies. Historically low interest rates have compounded the trend, tempting companies to raise cheap debt rather than to sell equity.
So what has happened to all of the stocks and what should investors do?
Steven Davidoff Solomon Paper https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2400488&rec=1&srcabs=2310441&alg=1&pos=6
Private Equity: The Emperor Has No Clothes By Nicolas Rabener: https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2018/12/03/private-equity-the-emperor-has-no-clothes/
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Unprecedented stimulus measures to help the global economy recover from the pandemic are fueling price rises in many major economies. This week we examine whether this is just temporary, or if inflation is back for good. Is this a new era of hyperinflation?
Interview With Manoj Pradhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHf0o...
Book by Manoj Pradhan - The Great Demographic Reversal: https://amzn.to/2TBpGsa
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Robinhood will give retail investors access to IPO shares. Robinhood announced last week that they are building a platform to “democratize” initial public offerings, including their own, that would allow users of its trading app to buy shares alongside Wall Street funds.
The move could erode Wall Street’s grip on stock market flotations. It would be easier to implement for Robinhood’s own IPO, given how companies and their investment bankers tightly control allocations to investors in new listings.
Currently, Robinhood users and other amateur traders cannot buy into stock of a newly listed company until its shares start trading. Since shares often trade higher when they debut, big funds that get allocations in the IPO have an advantage. The average first-day trading pop on U.S. listings of businesses in 2020 was 36%.
The FIGS IPO was the first one to be sold directly to retail investors through Robinhood's online brokerage platform.
Robinhood plans to carve out a chunk of its shares on offer in its IPO for its 13 million users, and to use technology it is building to administer this part of the offering, the sources said.
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The top five insider trading scandals. When people hear the term “insider trading,” they think of the crime. But insider trading is just the trading of a public company's securities by people with access to nonpublic or insider information about the company. There are rules around how insiders are allowed trade, forms they must fill out and so on, and these differ around the world.
Insider trading becomes illegal when a person bases their trading decision on information that the public does not know. It is illegal to trade stock in a company based on insider information, and it is also illegal to pass on that information to another person so that they can trade. In such a situation the person passing on the information is breaking the law as is the person receiving it if they trade on the information.
Today we look at the biggest insider trading scandals in recent history
Today’s video is brought to you by our sponsor ProFundCom. If you are looking to use email marketing to raise assets and connect with potential investors, ProFundCom have being helping hedge funds, asset and wealth managers to do just that for the last 18 years. ProFundCom works with some of the biggest names in finance, and they have a great reputation in the industry. If you would like a demonstration on how they do this click on this link: https://pfc.ltd/?NzM2OA
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I have been a trader for over twenty years, and from the start of my hedge fund career working with Victor Niederhoffer I have taken a quantitative approach to researching and executing trading strategies. A quant trader is a trader that builds statistical models to test trading strategies rather than relying on intuition and experience. Today we will look at the history of Quantitative Trading from 4000 years ago up until the present day. We will discuss the contributions of people like Ed Thorp, Victor Niederhoffer, Mike Adam, David Harding, Martin Lueck, David Shaw and James Simons.
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Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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James Simons Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkbdZb0UPac&t=269s
Sell In May Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWa1vsaHSLs&t=54s
Books Mentioned In Video:
My Life As A Quant - Emanuel Derman https://amzn.to/3vGW0HT
Education of A Speculator - Victor Niederhoffer https://amzn.to/3b3Gtdh
A Man for All Markets - Edward Thorp https://amzn.to/3xOqlq0
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Todays podcast is a fun look at probability and statistics. We learn about double yolk eggs, why do they happen, what is the probability of finding one, and if you get one double yolker egg in a carton what is the probability of finding more than one? In probability, two events are independent if the incidence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event. If the incidence of one event does affect the probability of the other event, then the events are dependent.
This podcast is all about quantitative finance. Subscribe if you find this type of topic interesting. This video is based on Patricks' book "Statistics for the Trading Floor: Data Science for Investing" available on Amazon at this link. https://amzn.to/2ZuZb7h It is the book to read if you are a trader or financial professional interested in investing trading and statistics.
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We look at the latest research from the good folks ARK Invest and payment company Square titled “Bitcoin is Key to an Abundant, Clean Energy Future”. Are Cathie Wood and Jack Dorsey right about the bitcoin green revolution?
The white paper Square and ARK Invest ($ARKK) published this week aims to justify bitcoin’s energy use and explain how it could be the key to a future of clean energy.
Square, a fintech founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, has invested $220 m in bitcoin, and profits from bitcoin trading. Elon Musk has drawn criticism for putting $1.5 bil of Tesla's cash in Bitcoin and for tweeting about dogecoin. ARK Invest, meanwhile, has been predicting since 2019 that blockchain’s economic impact could be as significant as that of electricity and offers cryptocurrency investing as one of its alternative strategies.
So let’s allow these guys to explain for us: why is bitcoin key to a clean energy future?
https://assets.ctfassets.net/2d5q1td6cyxq/5mRjc9X5LTXFFihIlTt7QK/e7bcba47217b60423a01a357e036105e/BCEI_White_Paper.pdf
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A study by McKinsey found that the average life-span of S&P 500 companies has fallen from 61 years in 1958 to less than 18 years today. McKinsey predict that, by 2027, 75% of the companies currently included in the S&P 500 will have disappeared.
So, What happens to these companies? Well, many will be bought- out, merged, and some will even go bankrupt like Lehman Brothers and Worldcom did. Some companies keep on going. General Electric, Exxon Mobile and Procter & Gamble are among the oldest large companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. It is worth noting though, that age does not necessarily make a company any better. In fact, evidence from the stock market indicates that age is quite possibly a hindrance. Of the companies that have stayed in the S&P 500 for more than 60 years, only a minority have managed to beat the average over time. It is worth noting that the biggest companies today are quite young, companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. If the S&P 500 was made up only of the companies that were part of the index sixty years ago, overall index performance would have been around a third lower.
In Todays video we compare young vs. old companies and see if there are any lessons we can learn from the oldest companies in the world.
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Two months after Reddit day traders took GameStonk ( $GME ) shares to surprising heights in a massive short squeeze, the video game retailer is finally trying to cash in. On Monday, it announced plans to issue up to 3.5 million new shares worth $650m via an “at-the-market” offering, or ATM.
The structure allows the issuer to raise cash bit by bit over the course of months or years. This is reasonable opportunism. Despite a pullback, GameStop shares are still up 900 per cent this year.
If successful, the share sale will equate to 5 per cent of outstanding stock. For the army of diamond handed faithfuls, the dilution is a small price to pay in exchange for turnaround plans. Ryan Cohen, co-founder and former chief executive of online pet supply retailer Chewy (The new Pets.com), is leading the push to transform the brick-and-mortar retailer into an online-first operation.
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Archegos Capital: The little-known family office of Bill Hwang convinced almost every big bank to lend enormous sums to it. One of the so-called Tiger Cub veterans of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management fund, Hwang was, after all, a man who had run into trouble before, having been banned from trading in Hong Kong and fined millions in the US to settle illegal trading charges in 2012. Hwang, used to run a hedge fund called Tiger Asia, but he returned outside money after his trading misadventures. Now he is the man behind Archegos Capital, the family office that has become a stark example of what happens when banks give out too much leverage and call it back all at once.
Bill Hwang had been flying under the radar until his bet on ViacomCBS ran into trouble last week. The plunge triggered margin calls, a bank’s way of saying, “put up more cash or we’re selling your positions”. What followed was a wave of selling by banks that wiped $33bn off the companies involved on Friday alone. By some accounts, share sales by Hwang’s various counterparties have already topped $30bn, with more damage expected to follow. That spelt trouble not only for Hwang but also the top banks including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Nomura which extended billions of dollars in credit to allow Archegos to make highly levered bets on US and Chinese stocks. We learned on Monday that the banks had attempted to co-ordinate efforts to limit the mayhem. Those talks failed and chaos ensued.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The Collapse of Greensill Capital
SoftBank-backed Greensill (a fintech company) lent billions of dollars to companies that included the highly indebted metals conglomerate GFG Alliance, silicon valley Construction Technology company Katerra and West Virginia mining company Bluestone Resources. These loans were packaged into bonds which were sold as a fund by Credit Suisse.
Greensill was funded by its own German-based and regulated bank and via Zurich-based Credit Suisse Asset Management. Its main shadow banking operations were in London.
German regulators BaFin last month seized control of the bank and filed a criminal complaint alleging balance sheet manipulation. Swiss and Australian officials are asking questions of Credit Suisse. Meanwhile, in the UK, where it has been celebrated as a leading “fintech” and counted former prime minister David Cameron as an adviser, there is little sign of regulatory action.
In the lead up to this crisis Lex Greensill and his family took $200 million out of the company.
No one knows the precise amount of bad loans involved: Credit Suisse is budgeting for at least $1bn to $2bn; insurance policies covered at least $4.6bn; in July last year insurer Tokio Marine said an underwriter had breached exposure limits by writing coverage for more than $7bn. And no one is sure who will bear the losses.
GFG has already defaulted on loans to Greensill. Some of those loans exist within Credit Suisse funds. Those funds have insurance written by the likes of Insurance Australia Group and Tokio Marine. IAG says it has no “net insurance exposure” to Greensill because of “extensive reinsurance” and “agreements with Tokio Marine for it to hold any remaining exposure”. Tokio Marine, in turn, says it also has reinsurance, it may turn to litigation and, anyway, the insurance may not have been valid in the first place.
This looming fight between loan originators, securitisers, funds, banks, insurers and investors looks very like the fallout from the 2008 crisis. The lawsuits that followed took up to a decade to resolve and cost tens of billions of dollars. For now, there is little general market turmoil. But it could still get messier.
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Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Patrick Boyle On Finance YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Links
Supply Chain Financing Patent: https://patents.google.com/patent/US6167385A/en
Court Hearing NSW https://www.caselaw.nsw.gov.au/decision/177f18936157b0e4a1349f9d
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What is the latest free money for Wall Street Hedge Funds? SPAC Arbitrage, which is an investment strategy that seeks to acquire shares or units of a special purpose acquisition company (“SPAC”) at or below its net asset value (“NAV”) in order to generate a return through either:
An exit at a premium to NAV once the SPAC announces a business combination
An exit at NAV, being the IPO price plus accrued interest, while keeping the SPAC Warrant
Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management increased its investments in blank-cheque companies almost six-fold last year as hedge funds poured tens of billions of dollars into Wall Street’s hottest investment product.
The New York-based group, which has $47bn under management, had $4.4bn invested in special purpose acquisition companies as of December, up from $750m at the end of 2019, making it the top hedge fund buyer of such vehicles, according to data compiled by Spac Research.
Hedge funds have embraced Spacs because they see the investments as having limited risk — and huge potential upside. Early backers can park cash in the vehicles for up to two years, accumulating interest, while receiving warrants that can be converted into relatively low-priced shares once a blank-cheque company merges with another business.
Chamath Palihapitiya has launched six SPACs on his quest to bring SPACs with tickers IPOA to IPOZ to market. Three of the SPACs have completed deals, one has a pending merger and two are still searching for targets. He has registered with the SEC to launch seven more in 2021.
Palihapitiya has also been involved with six SPACs as a member of the private investment in public equity, commonly referred to as the PIPE.
The investor tweeted last Friday to “trust the process” after a short report from Hindenburg Research attacked his recently completed SPAC deal Clover Health Investments (NASDAQ: CLOV).
A sober look at Spacs by Michael Klausner, Michael Ohlrogge and Emily Ruan: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3720919
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Patrick on YouTube: https://youtu.be/aXWCSQUvnKI
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The story I am about to tell you will contradict almost everything I have taught people about risk and return, about how easy it is to make money and about arbitrage in markets. Today I’m going to tell you how an experimental physicist Konstantin Anikeev discovered an infinite money machine and used it to make $310 thousand dollars. In addition he made this money in such a way that the IRS could not even tax him on the income. because Konstantin doesn’t have to pay taxes on his gains, he is left with enough money to buy a Lamborghini Huracan and get it wrapped in gold. It is reasonable to believe that he has achieved “The FX Trader Lifestyle”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Visit our website: https:www.onfinance.org
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In today's Podcast we look at some of the biggest corporate scandals since the turn of the century. They are listed in no particular order - let’s see if there is anything we can learn from them.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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In today's podcast we discuss the top performing stocks of the last 100 years. Which countries have had the best performing stock markets, and which factors drive outperformance.
Every year, in association with Credit Suisse, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School, release The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook which analyses global market returns since 1900. The 2020 edition gives us the insights gleaned from examining 120 years of global markets data. The team look at stocks, bonds, bills, inflation and currency for 23 national markets and for the world as a whole. Here is a link to their book on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3avJH9A
After analyzing the lifetime returns of 25,967 common stocks, Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University determined that just 1,092 of those stocks -- or about 4% of the total -- generated all of the $34.8 trillion in wealth created for shareholders by the stock market between July 1926 and December 2016. Even more striking, a mere 50 stocks accounted for well over one-third (39.3%) of that amount. Over a 90-year span, 96% of all stocks collectively performed no better than risk-free 1-month Treasury bills.
The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook: https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/studies-publications.html
Hendrik Bessembinder Paper https://tinyurl.com/fw1mri8l
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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In today's podcast Patrick Boyle interviews Victor Haghani, former Long Term Capital Management Partner about Salomon Brothers in the days of Liars Poker, What it was like working at LTCM, different approaches to investing, short squeezes, arbitrage and how Victor invests today. We talk briefly about the GameStop short squeeze, Melvin Capital and why Steve Cohen and Citadel might have invested more money.
Victor has spent more than 40 years in the world of finance, from the London School of Economics to Salomon Brothers to LTCM and finally to Elm Partners, Victor has a wealth of knowledge to share about indexing, value investing, momentum risk management and international diversification.
Subscribe to Victors mailing list: https://elmfunds.com/blog/
Victor's Ted Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yJWABvUXiU&t=26s
Books Mentioned in the video:
Liar's Poker by Michael Lewis: https://amzn.to/3asrt7N
When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein: https://amzn.to/3pKOrxj
Inside The Yield Curve by Martin Leibowitz :https://amzn.to/2NVkaxH
Triumph of The Optimists by Elroy Dimson: https://amzn.to/2LcixL5
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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This weeks podcast discusses some of the lessons that can be taken from the world of gambling that might help a trader with sizing their trades. We discuss what returns a trader might reasonably expect from the market. We look at the Kelly criterion (also known as the Kelly system or Kelly formula), to see if it can provide any insights to investors.
Patricks' Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/3kwsPSr
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleO...
Website: www.onfinance.org
Twitter:https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Books:
Ed Thorpe: https://amzn.to/3hG5gW4
Fortunes Formula: https://amzn.to/2YZAr7N
When Genius Failed: https://amzn.to/3jhsUIW
Patrick on coffeezilla discussing these topics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfP4r...
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Financial markets have been thrown into turmoil over the last week by retail investors using social media chat groups such as the Reddit forum Wall Street Bets and low-cost investment platforms to drive up shares in GameStop, a US video game retailer. In what is called a “short squeeze”, the share buyers are putting intense pressure on hedge funds such as Melvin Capital and other institutional investors, who bet that these equities would fall.
GameStop is a struggling bricks-and-mortar video game retailer in a world that is rapidly moving online. The stock had been languishing for six years, and many hedge funds were betting on a terminal decline. This weeks Podcast explains what is going on in the GameStop short squeeze, whether any laws are being broken, and how things are likely to work out with this trade.
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Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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James Simons is a mathematician and cryptographer who realized that the complex math he used to break military codes could also explain patterns in the world of finance. Jim Simons has been described as "the world's smartest billionaire", amassing a fortune through the clever use of mathematics and computers. He has stepped down as the chairman of Renaissance Technologies, the most successful quant hedge fund in history this January. Simons has not overseen the day-to-day running of the $120 billion hedge fund for nearly a decade, but he had stayed on as chairman of the fund up until now.
Jim’s retirement marks the end of an era in finance. Simons’s career and the fund he launched proved that the finance textbooks which claim that markets are perfectly efficient were wrong.
Obviously, the trading strategies at Renaissance are secret, but let’s look at Simons career, and see what lessons we can learn.
The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution by Gregory Zuckerman: https://amzn.to/2Mkw2sf
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The Dot-Com bubble was one of the largest speculative bubbles in U.S. stock market history. Here's a quick history lesson on what it was like twenty years ago.
The Dot-Com Bubble was a major economic event that ultimately led to a three year bear market. The Dot-Com Bubble started in the 1990s with a rapid wave of new internet companies going public by IPO. Many of these dot-com stocks while unprofitable, skyrocketed in value. In this video, we explain what caused the Dot-Com Bubble and some of the lessons we can learn from it in order to spot future stock market bubbles and crashes. We discuss if todays stock market resembles the dot com bubble.
If you like this podcast you might also enjoy Patrick's YouTube channel
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Patricks' Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/3kwsPSr
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Find Patrick on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Ravi Suria Amazon Report: http://www.shareholderforum.com/nyssa/Published/AMZN/20010206_Suria_Report.pdf
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John Law was a Scottish monetary reformer and originator of the “Mississippi scheme” for the development of French territories in America.
After killing an adversary in a duel, he fled to Amsterdam, where he was a professional gambler and learned about banking operations. A decade later he returned to Scotland and wrote his best-known work, Money and Trade Considered, with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money (available on Amazon at this link https://amzn.to/2Wkts7p). He submitted his banking reform plan to the English and Scottish parliaments, but it was rejected.
After several other rejections, Law received permission in 1716 to try his plan in France. The French government was heavily in debt as a result of the extensive wars of Louis XIV, who died in 1715; and Law’s program, which promised to reduce the public debt, held obvious appeal. With Law, however, lowering the public debt was somewhat incidental. He shared with his mercantilist contemporaries a belief that money is a creative force in economic development and that an increase in its quantity would stimulate a larger national product and would increase national power. He differed from other mercantilists in looking upon a central bank as an agency for manufacturing money in the form of bank notes that would circulate in place of gold and silver, which were scarce.
In Paris, Law founded a bank with authority to issue notes. Later he combined with his bank the Company of the West (better known as the Mississippi Company), which had exclusive privileges to develop the vast French territories in the Mississippi Valley of North America. Law’s plan worked well for a few years but ran afoul of speculative complications and political intrigue, neither of which were directly attributable to Law. As the author of the program, popularly known as the “Mississippi Bubble,” Law was responsible and was forced to flee France in 1720. He died in Venice a poor man.
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
My favourite book on John Law and the Mississippi Bubble was Millionaire by Janet Gleeson: https://amzn.to/3oSu7sU
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What is a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC)? or blank check company? Should you invest in SPACs, and how do they work? A SPAC is publicly-traded shell companies that raise collective investment funds through an initial public offering (IPO) in the form of a blind pool. The funds are placed into a trust until an acquisition is made or a predetermined period of time elapses and the fund is liquidated. SPACs are increasingly being viewed as an alternative to the IPO process in particular for silicon valley companies since the failed WeWork IPO. Some recent SPAC mergers have been controversial such as Nikola Motors (NKLA) and Luckin Coffee (LKN) and Wirecard. Many argue that these companies would not have made it through the traditional IPO process. We will also learn about Direct Listings, like the Spotify listing which is another alternative to the IPO process.
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Patricks' Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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An Interview with the leading expert on demographics and macroeconomics Manoj Pradhan. Manoj has just published a new book along with Charles Goodhart, former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and an Emeritus professor at the London School of Economics. The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival is one of the most interesting economics books of 2020 and is available on Amazon at this link: https://amzn.to/2RQUYHm
Manoj Pradhan, is the founder of Talking Heads Macro and was most recently Managing Director at Morgan Stanley where he led the Global Economics Team. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2005 after serving on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. While at Morgan Stanley, Manoj worked on quantitative macroeconomics, emerging markets and global economics. He has a PhD in economics from the George Washington University and a Masters in Finance from the London Business School.
Talking Heads Macro is one of the leading economics consulting firms, advising all of the top Macro Hedge Funds in the world. They specialize in structural macro-economic analysis uncovering global trends, with an emphasis on emerging markets.
Support This Channel on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Patricks' Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/3kwsPSr
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Find Patrick on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Millionaire Habits That Could Change Your Life. In today’s podcast, I will share thirteen millionaire habits, things that self-made millionaires do that poor people do not.
According to Fidelity, only 12% of today's millionaires in America inherited a significant portion of their wealth. One of the most effective ways to build wealth is to study those who have done so already. While taking on these habits won't necessarily make you rich, they might be a step in the right direction.
Thomas Corley studied "rich and poor" people for five years to work out how their behaviors and habits differ. I gathered a list of the thirteen habits of self-made millionaires based on his research that I found most interesting.
Change Your Habits, Change Your Life: Strategies that Transformed 177 Average People into Self-Made Millionaires by Tom Corley: https://amzn.to/381zfFK
Rich Habits - The Daily Success Habits of Wealthy Individuals by Tom Corley: https://amzn.to/3hwaAMH
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives For Traders: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
Today's episode is a list of my top ten books for traders, or the best finance books to read to learn about the financial industry. I decided to come up with a list of books that are not just filled with knowledge, but that are also really enjoyable reads – the kind of book that it is hard to put down. There are no university textbooks on this list, no Random Walk Down Wall Street or The Intelligent Investor. To make the list the books had to be interesting, educational, and a lot of fun to read. Many of these books are investment classics, and so people who have worked in markets for any length of time will possibly have read at least a few of these. I have put time stamps below, so you can skip ahead to the books that you are most interested in in case you have already read some of my selections.
Let me know what books you feel I left out.
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Roger Lowenstein - When Genius Failed - https://amzn.to/2Jp0pwj
Edwin Lefevre - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - https://amzn.to/3mnfXz8
Victor Niederhoffer - Education of A Speculator - https://amzn.to/3mlWNKc
Jack Schwager - Unknown Market Wizards - https://amzn.to/3mleolt
Michael Lewis - Liars Poker - https://amzn.to/39sSFEn
Frank Partnoy - Fiasco - https://amzn.to/3lliWHc
Richard Thaler - The Winner's Curse - https://amzn.to/3lkrdex
Edward Thorp - A Man For All Markets - https://amzn.to/3mkfZI8
Emanuel Derman - My Life As A Quant - https://amzn.to/36kdhwM
Jim Rogers - Investment Biker - https://amzn.to/2JdCoc2
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for the Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives for the Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Todays podcast is about the history of day trading and day traders. In order to better understand how markets work it is worth taking a look at the history of retail day trading, which goes back to the late 1980’s, when new technologies allowed a small group of smart and aggressive traders to take on Wall Street and win. Nasdaq market makers at the time called these traders the SOES bandits. We discuss the market inefficiencies that the early day traders were exploiting, what became of them, and if there are lessons applicable to today’s markets. We will see how the ideas of these early day traders transformed into modern high frequency trading.
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Book Recommendations:
Flash Boys by Michael Lewis: https://amzn.to/3iKduwh
Dark Pools by Scott Patterson: https://amzn.to/30OdW6x
SEC Litigation Release: https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/lr17929.htm
Patricks' Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
Jack Schwager on the worlds greatest unknown traders.
An interview with Jack Schwager, the author of The Market Wizards series of books, on his new book, Unknown Market Wizards. Jack has been involved in financial markets for over 45 years, he worked as a market analyst, a trader, managed institutional portfolios of managed accounts, and has written extensively on the futures industry. He is most famous for his Market Wizards series of books, interviews with great traders in all financial markets. He has just released the newest installment of that series Unknown Market Wizards, which I reviewed in my Top Ten Books for Traders list earlier this week.
Schwager has interviewed Bruce Kovner, David Shaw, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Michael Steinhardt, William O’Neill, William Eckhardt, Monroe Trout, Stanley Druckenmiller, Mark Ritchie, Blair Hull, Larry Hite, Jim Rogers, Edward Thorp, Richard Dennis, and many more of the worlds most famous and highest returning traders.
Patrick Boyle asks Jack about the characteristics these great traders have in common, what it takes to be a great trader, and what kind of returns do market wizards make in the long run. They discuss the efficient markets hypothesis, risk management, and how markets change over time.
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Unknown Market Wizards by Jack Schwager: https://amzn.to/3om6SHJ
Jack Schwager Author Page on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3mBTq1L
Jack's Website: https://jackschwager.com/
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for the Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives for the Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
Todays Episode is about George Soros and Macro Investing. George Soros is the most famous Macro Hedge Fund Investor. His Theory of General Reflexivity in economics is the theory that a feedback loop exists in which investors' perceptions affect economic fundamentals, which in turn changes investor perception. The theory of reflexivity has its roots in sociology. Soros believes that reflexivity disproves much of mainstream economic theory and should become a major focus of economic research.
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
New Paradigm for Financial Markets by George Soros: https://amzn.to/37UCMFH
Radical Uncertainty By John Kay & Mervyn King: https://amzn.to/3mZm0cE
Plain Bagel on Tesla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nz7hsHC2ORE&t=32s
Patrick's Books:
Statistics for Traders: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Financial Derivatives For Traders: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance)
