FPRI Events: Recent Episodes
Foreign Policy Research Instit
As tensions between the US and Iran ratchet up, and the 2015 nuclear deal increasingly looks like a dead letter, the prospect of war – whether by intention or by accident – is a growing concern. Is there a diplomatic way out of this impasse, or not? Is Iran on its way to becoming a nuclear power, or not? To explore these questions and others, we are pleased to feature Ariane Tabatabai, a prominent analyst of Iran and co-author of Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China. An Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, she holds a PhD in War Studies from King’s College London.
For the inaugural session of our new Main Line Briefings, hosted and cosponsored by The Haverford School, we are pleased to feature an in-depth conversation between Drs. Marisa Porges (Head of The Baldwin School) and John Nagl (Headmaster of The Haverford School). By coincidence, the two heads of these prestigious private schools on the Main Line are also military veterans and experienced hands in the field of national security. They will be discussing the current threats to American national security, covering challenges from state and non-state actors, such as China, Russia, Iran, and various terrorist movements, as well as the potential battlefields of the 21st Century from conventional war to cyber war and beyond.
Drawing on recently declassified documents, John Lehman tells the untold story of the Cold War at sea -- and why it matters today. John's story is also an FPRI story as he got his start here when he was a grad student at UPENN. When he left FPRI, he went on to serve in many high-ranking positions, including Deputy Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, senior staff member to Henry Kissinger in the White House, Secretary of the Navy, and a member of the 9/11 Commission.
On July 19, Israel’s parliament passed a controversial nation-state law. Designed by its proponents to promote Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish people, it is seen by its critics there and abroad as fundamentally anti-democratic. In this conversation with Barak Mendelsohn, we will explore the precise meaning of the law, the impetus for it, and how it may reflect larger political trends in Israeli society and politics.Mendelsohn is a specialist in jihadism, with two books on the subject and a third due out in November. These include The al-Qaeda Franchise: The Expansion of al-Qaeda and Its Consequences (Oxford University Press, 2016) and Combating Jihadism (University of Chicago Press, 2009). He served in the Israeli army for five years and received his PhD from Cornell University. He will return to the FPRI podium in December to speak on his forthcoming book Jihadism Constrained: The Limits of Transnational Jihadism and What It Means for Counterterrorism (Rowman and Littlefield, November 2018)
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War. Why did Germany lose the war? What role did the US play in winning the war? How did the war’s ending lead to an even greater conflict a generation later? To answer these questions and more, we are pleased to feature a lecture by FPRI Senior Fellow John Maurer, the Alfred Thayer Mahan Distinguished Professor of Grand Strategy, US Naval War College. For eight years, he chaired the Strategy Dept. at the Naval War College. In recognition for his contribution to professional military education, he has received both the U.S. Navy’s Meritorious Civilian Service Award and Superior Civilian Service Award.
In addition to being a Senior Fellow in FPRI’s Program on National Security, Maurer sits on the Board of Editors for FPRI’s journal, Orbis. He is the author or editor of books examining the WWI, military interventions in the developing world, and naval arms control between the two world wars, including The Outbreak of the First World War.
The war in Syria is reaching a decisive point. As the campaign against ISIL winds down, the battle for influence over the final settlement in Syria is heating up. This larger war—geopolitically more consequential than the campaign against ISIL—is characterized by shifting and sometimes surprising coalitions of states and non-state actors. Despite some close calls, the United States and Russia have been effective in what both sides call the “de-confliction” of operations in Syria, but it’s doubtful that these efforts can serve as a foundation for more meaningful efforts to put Syria back together. Securing a peaceful future for Syria and preventing the war there from further destabilizing the region—and possibly escalating into a regional war—will require new ideas. It will also require all parties to the conflict, both Syrian and foreign, to compromise on their objectives—something that no side looks ready to do.
Recently returned from a trip to Kuwait, U.S. Army Colonel Robert E. Hamilton is a Black Sea Fellow at FPRI. His current assignment is as a professor in the Department of National Security and Strategy at the U.S. Army War College. He has served as a strategic war planner and country desk officer at U.S. Central Command, as the Chief of Regional Engagement for Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan, and as the Chief of the Office of Defense Cooperation at the U.S. Embassy in Georgia and as the Deputy Chief of the Security Assistance Office at the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan. Colonel Hamilton was a U.S. Army War College fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, where he authored several articles on the war between Russia and Georgia and the security situation in the former Soviet Union. Colonel Hamilton holds a PhD in International Relations from the University of Virginia.
Juan Zarate served as the Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism from 2005 to 2009, and was the first ever Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes. Zarate sits on several boards, including the Vatican’s Financial Information Authority, the Board of Advisors to the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, and HSBC’s Financial System Vulnerabilities Committee. He is author of Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare (now out in paperback).
As tensions between the West and East mount, FPRI Senior Fellow Mitchell Orenstein will home in on the geopolitical competition between the European Union and Russia over the lands in between. A specialist in European studies and international political economy, Orenstein has consulted for the World Bank, USAID, and other organizations. He has lived in Britain, France, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Russia. He has held fellowships from the MacArthur Foundation, the American Council of Learned Societies, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. His first book was titled Out of the Red: Building Capitalism and Democracy in Postcommunist Europe (University of Michigan Press, 2001
Toshi Yoshihara, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Before joining CSBA, Toshi Yoshihara held the John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies at the U.S. Naval War College where he taught strategy for over a decade. Yoshihara has testified before the Defense Policy Board, the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is co-author of Red Star over the Pacific: China’s Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy (Naval Institute Press, 2010), which has been listed on the Chief of Naval Operation’s Professional Reading Program since 2012. Translations of Red Star over the Pacific have been published in China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. He holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.
Robert Kaplan, Senior Fellow, Center for New American Security
FPRI is excited to present Robert Kaplan and his newest collection of essays, "The Return of Marco Polo's World," described by General David Petraeus as "a truly pathbreaking, brilliant synthesis and analysis of geographic, political, technological, and economic trends with far-reaching consequences." Kaplan is the best-selling author of eighteen books on foreign affairs and travel, including in In Europes Shadow, The Revenge of Geography, and Balkan Ghosts.
Jacques deLisle, Director, Asia Program, FPRI
Scott Kastner, University of Maryland, College Park
Wojtek Wolfe, Rutgers-Camden University
Thomas J. Shattuck, Research Associate, FPRI
(Moderator)
Last month, China adopted new civilian aircraft flight paths over the Taiwan Strait, near Taiwan-controlled islands, without consulting Taiwan’s government. Several months earlier, Beijing began dispatching military aircraft to circumnavigate Taiwan. In 2017, China sent its aircraft carrier through the Strait en route to missions in the South China Sea. These actions have raised alarm in Taiwan. They have increased friction over security-related issues in a cross-Strait relationship already strained by other developments initiated by Beijing since Tsai Ing-wen became president in Taiwan, including suspension of Taiwan’s participation in the annual World Health Assembly meeting, shifts in diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing by two of the small cohort of states with formal relations with Taiwan, and the extradition of Taiwanese criminal suspects to the Mainland, rather than Taiwan.
What do the most recent developments reveal about the state of cross-Strait relations? What do they portend for the future? What are the implications for regional security and U.S. policy?
To comment on the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula, we are pleased to feature one of the world’s foremost authorities on North Korea. Sue Terry served as a Senior Analyst on Korean issues at the CIA from 2001 to 2008. From 2008 to 2009 she served as director for Korea, Japan and Oceanic Affairs at the National Security Council under both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. From 2009 to 2010, she was the deputy national intelligence officer for East Asia at the National Intelligence Council. Since leaving government, she has been with the Council on Foreign Relations, Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asia Institute, and with BowerGroupAsia. She holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.
We are pleased to present a panel of Vietnam veterans to discuss the significance of the Vietnam War, both personally and for America's place in the world. The panelists reflected on their own experience in the war and how it shaped their post-war understandings of American politics and foreign policy. They also added insights on Burns and Novick's recent PBS documentary about the war and highlighted lessons that Americans should have learned from this consequential period about U.S. history.
Panelists (all veterans of the Vietnam War):
- Michael Novakovic, Businessman
- Al (Cappy) Markle - Attorney
- Ray Tobey, Physician
- David McGuigan, Physician
- Walter A. McDougall, Pulitzer-Prize winning historian
- Mackubin T. Owens, political scientist and military strategist
It can be argued that the rise of Donald Trump has created more uncertainty about America’s role in the world than at any time in recent decades. At the same time, the geopolitical challenges to the US have grown in number and in severity. What role should the United States play in the world? In this talk, as in his book, Hal Brands will reflect on this core question for all Americans and offer “a guide for the perplexed.” His earlier book, Making the Unipolar Moment: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Rise of the Post-Cold War Order, was rated one of the top books of the year in 2017 by Foreign Affairs magazine. He has served in the Pentagon as a special assistant to the secretary of defense for strategic planning.
In his new book, Stewart Patrick says that sovereignty is “one of the most frequently invoked, polemical, and misunderstood concepts in politics.” Some see sovereignty as requiring the avoidance of international attachments while others see preservation of sovereignty in steering global forces in a positive direction, particularly in tackling transnational problems like proliferation, terrorism, global pandemics, and climate change. How best to advance US national interests will be the focus of Patrick’s talk. He is director of the International Institutions and Governance Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The illegal trade of everyday counterfeit products -- a $400 billion a year industry -- is a big chunk of what's actually funding terrorist groups around the world, argues FPRI's Vanessa Neumann in her new book Blood Profits. In this talk, Neumann will explain how purchasing illegal goods translates into supporting organized crime and terrorists -- and what can be done about it.
Neumann, a senior fellow of FPRI specializing in the crime-terror nexus, is president of Asymmetrica, a consultancy on strategies for corporate clients and governments to dismantle illicit trade. She serves on the OECD's Advisory Groupo for the Task Force on Countering Illicit Trade. She also holds fellowships at Yale University and Columbia University. She received her Ph.D. from Columbia University.
Stephen Kotkin
Birkelund Professor in History and International Relations, Princeton University
Heralded as the definitive biography of Joseph Stalin and the world he lived in, the first volume of Prof. Kotkin's trilogy recast the way we think about Stalin and the Soviet Union. In this talk on the occasion of the publication of his second volume, Kotkin will explore the industrialization of a kind the world had never seen, the militarization of Soviet society, the pact that shocked the world, and the invasion that followed.
Assaf Moghadam, Director of Academic Affairs, International Institute on Counter-Terrorism, IDC Herzliya
Barak Mendelsohn, Senior Fellow, FPRI; Assoc. Professor of Political Science, Haverford College
Drawing on recently declassified matierals, this discussion will explore how terrorists cooperate and how those relationships contribute to the success and resilience of jihadi terrorism - the subject of Moghadam's new book.
Hajnalka Vincze
Senior Fellow, FPRI
European Foreign and Security Analyst
At a crucial moment in European history, France went to the polls and elected the young centrist Emmanuel Macron. How will he deal with opposition from his right and left, with Trump's America, and with the internal and external challenges facing Europe? To answer these questions, we are pleased to feature Hajnalka Vincze, a former analyst in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense in charge of EU and transatlantic relations.
Half a decade after Arabs across the Middle East poured into the streets to demand change, hopes for democracy have disappeared in a maelstrom of violence and renewed state repression. Egypt remains an authoritarian state; Syria and Yemen are in the midst of devastating civil wars; Libya has descended into anarchy; and the self-declared Islamic State rules a large swath of territory. Even Turkey, which also experienced large-scale protests, has abandoned its earlier shift toward openness and democracy and now more closely resembles an autocracy. How did things go so wrong so quickly across a wide range of regimes? In his new book, noted Middle East expert Steven A. Cook looks at the trajectory of events across the region, from the initial uprising in Tunisia to the failed coup in Turkey, to explain why the Middle Eastern uprisings did not succeed.
Existential enemies have a way of uniting a country. Could America's current state of division be related to the absence of such an enemy? In this talk, FPRI Senior Fellow Dominic Tierney takes an unorthodox look at America and the world, placing our current challenges in a larger historical perspective
In cooperation with UPenn's Center for East Asian Studies, the Foreign Policy Research Institute hosted a briefing on the situation in North Korea with Lt. General (Ret) In Bum Chun.
Chun served in the South Korean military for over 30 years, rising to several key posts, among them Deputy Chief of Staff for ROK/US Combined Forces Command, Senior Member of the United Nations Military Armistice Commission, Commander of the ROK Special Warfare Command, and Deputy Commander for the First ROK Army. He retired from the military in 2016 and is now a fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS).
The Middle East is rife with conflict. States appear to be breaking down, and extremism is on the march. Amid the chaos, how is one to define the U.S. national interest, and how to secure it? Trudy Rubin, the authoritative voice of the Philadelphia Inquirer, brings her years of reporting from the region to bear on these questions and more.
The Kremlin has managed to deploy power so ruthlessly at home and abroad in part because of its surprising ability to muster economic resources. In this talk, Miller analyzes the secret to Putin’s success.
In the past, concerns raised by China's bad debt bubbles have triggered no alarms, in large part, because of its massive foreign exchange reserves and rapidly growing economy. Now, China's debts are higher than ever, while its reserves have fallen by $1 trillion and its economy slows. How could these major economic changes impact China's foreign policy choices? Are their implications already being felt today? And if so, what do they mean for China's international behavior -- will they turn the country inward or encourage it to become even more assertive?
Joining us to place these issues in the larger geopolitical perspective to assess China's future direction is Felix Chang. Chang is a Senior Fellow of FPRI and the Chief Strategy Officer of DecisionQ.
Confidence in the future of democracy has been shaken by the authoritarian resurgence of the past decade, and some now argue that it is not realistic for the US to continue to champion democracy abroad. Does Democracy Matter? provides the conclusions of eleven scholars from widely different backgrounds who ask whether and, if so, how the US should support democracy beyond its own borders. Although all of the authors agree that American strategic interests are better served in the long run by the consolidation and spread of democracy abroad, they differ sharply on how democracy support should fit into the overall US national security calculus, and on where and how, if at all, such assistance should be delivered.
On June 19, two of the book’s chapter authors will present their differing perspectives in the context of a new administration that seeks to “make America great again.” They will discuss their views on the impact that the health of democracy abroad has not only on our global position, but also on America’s security and prosperity at home.
The participants will discuss why consolidation and spread of democracy abroad is a core strategic interest for the US, and will examine whether and how it should be pursued even in the short term. One chapter author will present his views as to why “hard” security interests should virtually always take precedence over democracy concerns, at least in the short term. And the author of the book’s policy conclusions will sketch out a system of “triage” as part of his thesis that we need to develop more effective approaches to supporting democracy internationally.
This June we commemorate the Six Day War, a transformative event in the history of the Middle East that ended in Israel’s conquest of an area three-and-a-half times the size of Israel itself. Its effects were felt then and are still felt throughout the region, if not the world. In this talk, Neri Zilber considers the impact of the war on Israel’s domestic politics and how Israel’s political parties today are responding both to the consequences of the war and to the challenges Israel faces today.
Neri Zilber is a journalist and researcher on Middle Eastern politics and culture. His work has appeared in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, The New Republic, and the Washington Post, among others. In addition to reportage, Neri consults for the private sector on political and economic risk in Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and the broader Eastern Mediterranean. He was raised and educated in Israel, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.
Born as small appendages to the conventional armies of World War II, the Special Operations Forces have grown into a behemoth of 70,000 troops, including Navy SEALs, Army Special Forces, Air Force Night Stalkers, Special Operations Marines, Rangers, and Delta Force. Moyar’s book is the first comprehensive history of these special warriors and their daring missions. Moyar is author of several critically acclaimed books, among them, Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War, 1954-1965 (Cambridge University Press, 2006) and A Question of Command: Counterinsurgency from the Civil War to Iraq (Yale University Press, 2009). His articles have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and numerous other publications.
Iraq has been at the center of American foreign policy for over a quarter-century. Will it continue to dominate our attention and resources in the coming years as well? If so, how? Just as importantly, why? To answer these questions, we bring together two experts who have had some of the most unique and consequential experiences in Iraq over the past two decades.
As we commemorate the 100th anniversary of America’s entry into World War I, we are pleased to feature Michael Neiberg on his latest book, analyzing how Americans moved from ambivalence toward the war in Europe to belligerence and beyond. He examines the social, political, and financial forces at work and the role of public opinion and popular culture, showing how all these factors contributed to the pivot toward war. His most recent books include: Potsdam: The End of World War II and the Remaking of Europe (Basic Books, 2015); The Blood of Free Men: The Liberation of Paris, 1944 (Basic Books, 2012); and Dance of the Furies: Europe and the Outbreak of War in 1914 (Harvard University Press, 2011).
Once again, China is experiencing a period of major transition. After three decades of dramatic economic growth and reforms, China faces significant economic and political challenges at home while President Xi Jinping looks to refashion China’s place in the world. China is taking a more proactive approach to trade and related international economic affairs, a more vigorous approach to security matters, and a more focused engagement on international cultural and educational affairs. Across these diverse areas, China’s capacity—and desire—to influence events and outcomes have risen markedly. What have the results been to date, and what does China's future trajectory appear to be? To explore these questions, we are pleased to feature two FPRI Fellows, Jacques deLisle and Avery Goldstein.
Jacques deLisle is the Stephen A. Cozen Professor of Law, Professor of Political Science, and Deputy Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania, and Director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. His work focuses on China’s engagement with international law and the international order and legal reform in China.
Avery Goldstein is the David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, Professor of Political Science, and Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania. His research focuses on international relations, security studies, and Chinese politics.
This is Panel 2 of the FPRI Asia Program Conference on US Policy toward East Asia under the Trump Administration. This panel featured Michael R. Auslin (American Enterprise Institute), Shihoko Goto (Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars), Gilbert Rozman (FPRI and Princeton University), and was moderated by Jacques deLisle (FPRI and University of Pennsylvania).
This is Panel 1 of the FPRI Asia Program Conference on US Policy toward East Asia under the Trump Administration. This panel featured Jacques deLisle (FPRI and University of Pennsylvania), Scott Mulhauser (Georgetown University), and June Teufel Dreyer (FPRI and University of Miami), and was moderated by William Burke-White (Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania).
As of April 10, 2017, our 45th President, Donald J. Trump will have completed his first 100 days in office. What have these crucial days revealed about the Trump administration? What do they indicate for the next 1361 (or even the next 2822) days?
Joining us to discuss these questions and more is FPRI's Ronald J. Granieri, the host of FPRI's popular monthly program, Geopolitics with Granieri. Granieri is the Executive Director of FPRI’s Center for the Study of America and the West, Editor of the Center’s E-publication The American Review of Books, Blogs, and Bull, and the Director of Research at the University of Pennsylvania's Lauder Institute.
Putin's government is usually associated with incompetence and corruption. Yet, the Kremlin has managed to deploy power so ruthlessly at home and abroad in part because of its ability to muster economic resources. Miller traces the economic policies that underwrite Russia's expansive foreign policy and Putin's continued control over the country's political system.
Joining us to discuss Putinomics is Chris Miller. Miller is a Fellow at FPRI’s Eurasia Program where he serves as the editor of the Baltic Bulletin. He is also the Associate Director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy at Yale University. His is the author of The Struggle to Save the Soviet Economy: Mikhail Gorbachev and the Collapse of the USSR.
How to understand a world where Russia threatens to break up the post-Cold War order in Europe, while China lays the groundwork for a new order in East Asia, and the entire Middle East is riven with conflict —this is the assignment we’ve given to one of the world’s great geopolitical thinkers, Jeremy Black, author of over 100 books on military and diplomatic history.
Slumping economies, political and social turmoil, environmental degradation, demographic crisis, and territorial disputes means that the stability is not to be taken for granted, or so argues AEI scholar Michael Auslin in his new book. This is a book for industry and investors, politicians and scholars, and anyone who wants to understand the future of Asia. A former professor of history at Yale, Auslin is a regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal and Forbes and a frequent commentator in U.S. and foreign media.
In this talk, FPRI's resident technology geek, Lawrence Husick, will examine the history of U.S. patent law, how it contributed to America's technological edge, and how the recent erosion of patent law places that that technological edge in jeopardy. He will conclude with a discussion of the implications for America's geopolitical position in the world.
Husick is Co-Chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Center for the Study of Terrorism where he concentrates on the study of terrorist tactics and counterterrorism strategies, with a particular focus on technology leverage as a defining characteristic of the modern terrorist. He is also co-director of the FPRI Wachman Center’s Program on Teaching Innovation and a faculty member at the Whiting Graduate School of Engineering and the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences Graduate Biotechnology Program of the Johns Hopkins University.
General Durrani was commissioned in the Pakistan Army in 1961 and retired as a major general in 1998. He served as Pakistan's Ambassador to the US from 2006 to 2008, and then as National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan from 2008 to 2009.
He continues to be active in working toward peace in South Asia as a member of a group of high-level Pakistanis and Indians. He is author of "India and Pakistan: The Cost of Conflict and the Benefits of Peace" (Johns Hopkins University, 2000).
Drawing on two-and-a-half years of closely watching Russia's online influence operations and monitoring some 7,000 social media accounts, Clint Watts tells the disturbing story of the Kremlin's army of trolls and their role in spreading disinformation to undermine trust in Western electoral systems. It was while investigating jihadis online that Watts came across the online activities of Russian trolls.
Watts is a Robert A. Fox Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Program on the Middle East as well as a Senior Fellow with its Program on National Security. He serves as the President of Miburo Solutions, Inc. Watts’ research focuses on analyzing transnational threat groups operating in local environments on a global scale. Before starting Miburo Solutions, he served as a U.S. Army infantry officer, a FBI Special Agent on a Joint Terrorism Task Force, and as the Executive Officer of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC).
Robert S. Litwak is vice president for scholars and director of international security studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He is also a consultant to the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Litwak served on the National Security Council staff as director for nonproliferation in the first Clinton administration. He was an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and has held visiting fellowships at Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Oxford University. He is the author of Deterring Nuclear Terrorism, Iran’s Nuclear Chess: After the Deal, Outlier States: American Strategies to Contain, Engage, or Change Regimes, and the forthcoming Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout. Dr. Litwak is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and received a doctorate in international relations from the London School of Economics.
Jeremy Black addresses the turmoil in Europe -- from Brexit to the rise of nationalist parties to Russian machinations in Ukraine. One of our most popular lecturers, Jeremy is the author of over 100 books on military and diplomatic history.
In this talk, Admiral Titley will explore the direct and indirect ways that climate change erodes U.S. national security and how the U.S. military plans to mitigate the risks associated with climate change. A professor of meteorology and founding director of the Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk at Penn State, Titley is a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for Climate and Security. Prior to joining Penn State, Titley was chief operating officer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the chief oceanographer of the U.S. Navy, in which he served for 32 years. He initiated and led the U.S. Navy’s Task Force on Climate Change.
Clint Watts, an FPRI Robert A. Fox Fellow, is a widely-consulted expert on radicalization, counter-radicalization, and the use of social media by terrorists and other criminal elements. A former FBI Special Agent, Watts is a regular on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, and has recently testified on Capitol Hill about the terrorist attacks in Europe and ISIS’ recruitment efforts. His essays and blogs appear regularly in Foreign Policy, War on the Rocks, and Geopoliticus: The FPRI Blog.
On 23 June, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The majority for “Brexit” (52% to 48%) surprised observers on both sides, and exposed geographical and generational divides in British society. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, while Wales and England, voted to leave; voters over 60 voted overwhelmingly to leave, while voters under 35 voted as strongly to remain. The referendum also highlighted deep divisions within Britain’s ruling Conservative Party. Prime Minister David Cameron had hoped that simply holding the referendum would appease Tory Euroskeptics, but was so surprised by the vote for Brexit that he immediately announced his intention to resign. The opposition Labour Party proved equally divided, and only the stoutly Euroskeptic United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) celebrated the vote. Theresa May eventually emerged as the new Prime Minister, only the second woman to hold that position, and now faces the challenge of managing a delicate diplomatic dance which will include not only her party colleagues, but restive regions and a fragmented British electorate—not to mention Britain’s twenty-seven soon-to-be-former EU partners.
Why did the UK hold the referendum? Why did the result come as such a surprise? How will the British political class and electorate respond to the realities of Brexit? What will the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union look like?
For answers to these and other questions, join us for Geopolitics with Granieri, where Ron Granieri will welcome Prof. Dominic Tierney of Swarthmore College for a wide-raging discussion of the causes and consequences of Brexit. Tierney is a Senior Fellow with FPRI’s Program on National Security and associate professor of political science at Swarthmore College.
On May 20, Taiwan inaugurated a new president, Tsai Ing-wen, who has been described as the most powerful woman in the Chinese-speaking world. It was a historic election not just because Taiwan elected its first female president but because the opposition, the Democratic Progressive Party, won both the presidency and a majority in the Legislative Yuan. What does the new administration intend for Taiwan's future and for the future of cross-strait relations, how will China respond, and what role is there for the US to play to promote regional security?
In this briefing, FPRI Senior Fellow Paul Springer assessed the cyber capabilities of the United States and its peer competitors within the cyber domain, and contrast cyber war with cyber terrorism, cyber crime, cyber espionage, while offering insight into the likely future uses of capabilities particularly in the context of interstate conflict.
How do an Iraqi comic, an Algerian military recruitment video, and a musical sketch from the American TV show "Schoolhouse Rock" illuminate the defining challenge of Arab politics for a generation to come? From radicalism to reform, from post-colonial states to newly-minted caliphates – the Middle East’s contentious identity politics have both raised new challenges and revealed new opportunities. Using video footage from the region rarely seen outside the Middle East, Braude illuminates little-known but potentially significant developments that may give hope to a troubled region. Braude is a senior advisor to the Al Mesbar Center for Research and Studies, a reformist think tank in the UAE. He broadcasts weekly on Moroccan National Radio, and writes regularly for Arabic-language periodicals.
Japan remains the world’s third-largest economy, but its political clout has not matched its economic status. At the same time, China’s rapid militarization and growing political aspirations, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and heightening economic rivalries and growing nationalism in East Asia are reshaping the landscape of the Asia-Pacific. Japan’s security and economic policy choices will play a key role in shaping the future of the world’s most populous region. What is Japan’s likely trajectory? How will it impact the region? And what are the implications for the United States? To address these questions, we feature Shihoko Goto, a fellow of the Mansfield Foundation/Japan Foundation U.S.-Japan Network for the Future. Prior to joining the Wilson Center, she spent over ten years as a journalist writing about the international political economy with an emphasis on Asian markets. She is a former correspondent for Dow Jones News Service and United Press International based in Tokyo and Washington.
Amid growing evidence that the world is experiencing a resurgence of authoritarianism, FPRI Senior Fellow Michael Boyle argues that the challenge is actually two-fold: there is the challenge to democracy in individual countries but there is also a larger challenge to the international order largely built by the United States after the end of the Second World War. In a sobering essay in the current issue of Survival, published by London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, Boyle asks how should the United States respond to the emergence of an illiberal order? And how can it be “a more effective geopolitical competitor in the less hospitable, more violent world to come”?
Michael Boyle is a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an Associate Professor of Political Science at La Salle University. He was a lecturer in international relations at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, where he was also a Research Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence. His most recent book is Violence After War: Explaining Instability in Post-Conflict States (Johns Hopkins Press, 2014).
On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of Pearl Harbor, hear a gripping account by John Maurer of the decisions that led to war and grapple with the changing strategic environment between the summer of 1940 and December 1941. Maurer holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He is the author or editor of books examining the outbreak of the First World War, military interventions in the developing world, naval arms control between the two world wars, and a study about Winston Churchill’s views on British foreign policy and grand strategy. At the Naval War College, he teaches a popular elective course on Churchill and grand strategy. He has received both the U.S. Navy’s Meritorious Civilian Service Award and Superior Civilian Service Award.
Just back from a trip to Sulaimaniya in Iraqi Kurdistan, where he attended the “Suli Forum,” a significant annual meeting of regional and international stakeholders, as well as academic and policy experts, FPRI’s Sam Helfont was able to take the pulse of participants in conflicts and tensions in progress – between the Kurds and ISIS, the Kurds and the government of Iraq, and among the different factions of the Kurds themselves. The Kurds are perhaps the world’s largest ethnic group without its own nation-state. What does the future hold for the Kurds? For ISIS? And what can the United States do to move the region forward?
Samuel Helfont is a Robert A. Fox Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a lecturer in the University of Pennsylvania's interdisciplinary International Relations Program. In May 2015, he completed a PhD in Princeton University's Near Eastern Studies Department, where he used Iraqi state and Baa'th Party records to write a dissertation on religion and politics in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. He has published articles in Foreign Affairs, The New Republic, The American Interest, and Orbis. He is author of the FPRI e-book The Sunni Divide: Understanding Politics and Terrorism in the Arab Middle East.
In a special briefing for the World Affairs Council of Reading, FPRI's Ron Granieri delivered remarks on the state of Europe, the possibility of Brexit, and the response to the Migrant Crisis.
Why, if Russia is in decline, does Putin seem to be trumping the West? How do the latest events in Ukraine, Syria/Iraq, and Paris change the state of affairs between the US and Russia? What is Putin thinking? To answer these questions, we are pleased to feature Stephen Kotkin, a critically acclaimed historian of the Soviet Union and Russia, whose latest book, Stalin: Paradoxes of Power, 1878-1928, is much more than a biography, as it places Stalin in a larger geopolitical context. And it is through that same lens of geopolitics that we have asked Kotkin to assess Vladimir Putin. His essays have appeared in The New Yorker, The New Republic, The Washington Post, and the Financial Times. He serves as a consultant on emerging markets and global trends for the World Pension Forum. He received his Ph.D. in history from UC/Berkeley.
A decade or more of sub-$60 oil prices will create both economic winners and losers in the Middle East and North Africa. However, accompanying political shocks have the potential of further destabilizing the entire region, including countries that are expected to gain from lower oil prices. Should the USA continue to engage in this increasingly troubled region and, if so, how? Or should the USA walk away? A retired Marine Corps Reserve colonel, Professor Gunter is the author of The Political Economy of Iraq: Restoring Balance in a Post-Conflict Society (2013), re-published in 2015 in Arabic. He was the Senior Civilian Economics Advisor for Multi-National Corps in Iraq.
Kermit Roosevelt III is the author of the legal thriller, Allegiance (Regan Arts, 2015), a historical novel published about the internment of Japanese citizens during World War II. This novel includes analysis of the classic case Korematsu v. the United States, in which the Supreme Court upheld Franklin Roosevelt’s executive order for internment, and explores the tensions between liberty and security, and between the courts and the powers of the presidency in wartime. Roosevelt’s novel lead us to discuss those same themes in the context of today’s war on terror.
Kermit Roosevelt III is a professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania, where he teaches constitutional law. He is great grandson of President Theodore Roosevelt and distant cousin of FDR. Allegiance is his second novel, following the publication of In the Shadow of Law. He is also author of The Myth of Judicial Activism.
February 24, 2016
Main Line Breakfast Briefing
Vanessa Neumann, Senior Fellow, FPRI
Once the longest-running democracy in South America and a very important ally of the United States, Venezuela transformed under the rule of Hugo Chavez and subsequently his successor Nicholas Maduro. However, with the National Assembly Elections last December, the Venezuelan public produced an undeniable landslide for the opposition and a firm rejection of Chavismo. With the world’s largest proven oil reserves, what happens next in this country has important implications for the entire world. Will the opposition seek revenge on the Chavistas or use their powerful mandate to rebuild Venezuela’s gutted institutions? Will Maduro respond by setting up parallel institutions of government stocked with Chavistas, or go quietly into the night? To answer these questions and more, we are pleased to feature Vanessa Neumann, our “go-to” person on Venezuela.
Dr. Neumann is an Associate of the University Seminar on Latin America at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, where she received her Ph.D. in political philosophy. Having worked as a journalist on three continents, she has written for The (London) Sunday Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, and The Weekly Standard.
Drawing on his new book The al-Qaeda Franchise, Barak Mendelsohn explored al-Qaeda's branching-out strategy, whereby it introduced seven franchises spread over the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Although the introduction of these new branches helped al-Qaeda create a frightening image far beyond its actual capabilities, ultimately this strategy neither increased the al-Qaeda threat, nor enhanced the organization's political objectives. Was al-Qaeda's branching out strategy a sign of strength or a response to its decline in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks? Why has al-Qaeda formed branches in some arenas but not others? How has the rise of ISIS from an al-Qaeda branch changed the path of jihad, and what does the competition between the two movements mean for the future?
Geopolitics with Granieri
February 2, 2016
Sam Helfont, an FPRI Robert A. Fox Fellow, has written a series of essays that explore the differences betweenIslam and Islamism, between Sunni and Shi’a Islam, and between the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and the theology of Wahhabism. Together these essays go far to correct widespread misperceptions about Islam. In this session, Ron Granieri explored with Sam Helfont what Americans think they know about Islam and what they should know.
Over the past decade and a half, al-Qaeda has adopted a branching-out strategy, introducing seven franchises spread over the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Although the introduction of these new branches helped al-Qaeda create a frightening image far beyond its actual capabilities, ultimately this strategy neither increased the al-Qaeda threat, nor enhanced the organization's political objectives. In fact, this strategy may have undermined one of al-Qaeda's primary achievements: the creation of a transnational entity based on religious, not national, affiliation. Was al-Qaeda's branching out strategy a sign of strength or a response to its decline in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks? Why has al-Qaeda formed branches in some arenas but not others? How has the rise of ISIS from an al-Qaeda branch to the dominant actor in the jihadi camp affected the parent organization’s ambitions?
Geopolitics with Granieri
January 12, 2016
Join us for a conversation with FPRI Senior Fellow Sean Yom, as he explores the geopolitics of authoritarianism and the implications for the Middle East in the 21st century. In his new book, From Resilience to Revolution: How Foreign Interventions Destabilize the Middle East, Yom builds on a comparative historical analysis of Iran, Jordan, and Kuwait, and analyzes the the role played by foreign powers in the construction and durability of autocratic states in the Middle East. Yom is assistant professor of political science at Temple University, where he focuses on the dynamics and effects of authoritarianism, democracy, and U.S. foreign policy.
A region two-thirds the size of the United States, the Russian Far East possesses enormous natural wealth and a vital strategic location on the north Pacific, where the interests of several major powers – China, Japan, the Koreas and the United States – intersect. The RFE also fronts on the Arctic Ocean, another key theater of emerging geopolitical competition, controlling the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route. The Ukraine crisis and the West’s economic disengagement from Russia seem likely to increase China’s influence in the RFE and in East Asia generally, with important potential consequences for the regional security balance. Is a Russia-China alliance a chimera or a reality? Is Russia moving into China’s economic orbit? Is collaboration still possible between Russia and the US? These are the questions that Artyom Lukin and Rens Lee address in their new book Russia’s Far East: New Dynamics in Asia Pacific and Beyond, the product of a unique collaboration between an American and a Russian scholar.
We are pleased to sponsor the return to our podium of Adam Garfinkle, this time in his role as a Fox Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. A former speechwriter for Secretary of State Colin Powell, he has also been editor of The National Interest and has taught at the School for Advanced International Studies, the Johns Hopkins University, the University of Pennsylvania, and Haverford College. His blog “The Middle East and Beyond” appears on The American Interest website and he writes regularly for FPRI.
ISIS has claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks, the crash of the Russian airliner, and the bombings in Beirut. In his new critically acclaimed book The ISIS Apocalypse, Will McCants writes: “We’re used to thinking of al-Qaeda’s former leader Osama bin Laden as the baddest of the bad, but the Islamic State is worse.” What drives ISIS? What are its origins? Who are its leaders? How have they come so far? To answer these questions, we featured Will McCants, director of the Brookings Institution Project on US Relations with the Islamic World.
In a relatively short time, ISIS has come to dominate the global jihadi arena, boasting its own state that incorporates parts of Syria and Iraq, while spurring offshoots elsewhere in the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia and withstanding a sustain aerial campaign. FPRI’s Clint Watts has studied its strengths and vulnerabilities, and in this talk offers his ideas on how best to defeat ISIS.
In this talk, Lorenzo Vidino will examine the different ways governments have attempted to counter radicalization, assess the weaknesses and strengths of these approaches, and offer his own suggestions to counter extremism — including the nonviolent forms of extremism that may be precursors or facilitators of violent extremism. An expert on Islamism in Europe and North America, Vidino has focused for the past 15 years on the mobilization dynamics of jihadist networks in the West; governmental counter-radicalization policies; and the activities of Muslim Brotherhood-inspired organizations in the West. A native of Italy who holds American citizenship, Vidino earned a law degree from the University of Milan Law School and a doctorate in international relations from Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He has held positions at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the RAND Corporation, and the Center for Security Studies (ETH Zurich). Vidino’s most prominent work is The New Muslim Brotherhood in the West (Columbia University Press, 2010), with an Arabic edition released by the Al Mesbar Studies and Research Center. He has testified before the U.S. Congress and other parliaments, and advised law enforcement officials around the world. He regularly provides commentary to diverse media outlets, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, PBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and more.