Bubble Trouble: Recent Episodes
Magnificent Noise
Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics.
This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan
01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights
02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply
04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation
06:13 AI and the Future of Music
12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media
13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators
19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores
25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry
27:33 Part Two
28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype
30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies
30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View
31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies
33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom
35:15 Bifurcation in the Market
43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption
44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry
46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions
52:00 Credits
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Podcasts are having another moment: Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:59 Part One
02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts
05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization
09:09 The Future of Media Consumption
22:11 Part Two
22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions
37:46 AI and Data Utilization
46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell
48:33 Credits
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Repeat from November, 2023.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:46 Part One
00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz
02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model
06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism
07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms
08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy
09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers
15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends
28:47 Part Two
32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?
36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads
36:34 The Struggles of Threads
36:59 The Power of Network Effects
38:17 The Limitations of Threads
39:48 The Rise of Reddit
40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape
40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter
41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta
44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces
45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter
49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership
54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies
58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions
59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter
01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology
01:02:34 Credits
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The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism. With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes.
00:00
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Part One
01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion
02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets
04:29 Comparing Market Values
07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics
12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges
15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience
18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence
19:30 Part Two
19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget
22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies
30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech
35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement
36:49 Credits
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We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:44 Part One
00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days
03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained
14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP
18:59 Part Two
19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges
25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration
28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy
32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement
33:25 Credits
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We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Part One
01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation
03:25 Understanding Company Valuations
06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations
10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech
15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons
21:12 Part Two
21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles
25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics
36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions
43:46 Credits
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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation
00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics
06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics
08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book
11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges
17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing
19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization
25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics
25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two
25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword
25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity
26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation
27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges
29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization
30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation
31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation
34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech
40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation
42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce
44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation
50:06 Credits
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One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality.
- Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-ai
- Damien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_use
- All The Music: https://allthemusic.info/
- All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.
00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:44 Part One
00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk
01:30 Part Two
01:30 Introduction to V Lex
02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research
03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession
07:54 Democratizing Access to Law
09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech
17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes
23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services
25:28 Democratizing Access to Law
25:58 Part Two
26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech
26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work
28:35 AI in the Judicial System
34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech
38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law
46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations
48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects
49:12 Credits
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Today we’ve got a page turner…not that Page, our co-presenter…but a book that brings the AI battle to life: Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World, Written by our guest, Parmy Olson. Buckle up as it's going to be a wild ride.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page sit down with Bloomberg columnist and AI expert, Parmy Olson, to discuss her new book, 'Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World.' The conversation covers the ethical challenges and regulatory gaps in the AI industry, the role of big tech corporations in AI development, and the societal impact of AI on various sectors including healthcare, education, and law. Olson also shares insights on the bias and unintended consequences of AI technology, the psychology of tech innovators, and the future prospects for the technology.
00:00 Introduction
00:51 Meet the Guest: Parme Olson
01:08 Parmy Olson's Journey in Tech Journalism
02:25 The Fascination with Silicon Valley
03:26 The Metaverse Debate
04:16 Investigative Journalism in Tech
08:05 The AI Hype: Reality or Exaggeration?
10:57 The Race for AI Supremacy
14:29 Unintended Consequences of AI
20:18 The Ethics of AI Development
22:55 Closing Thoughts on AI and Tech
24:49 Part Two
25:23 The Competitive Landscape of AI
26:07 The Shift from Openness to Secrecy
27:42 Meta's Approach to Open Source AI
28:55 The Role of Open Source in Tech Development
30:57 The Allure of High Salaries in AI
31:09 Capitalism and AI: A Cautionary Tale
31:55 The Distinction Between Business and Markets
33:49 AI's Potential in Public Services
36:49 The Future of Law with AI
41:24 The Psychology of Tech Companies
48:06 The Bubble and Reality of AI
49:38 The Future of AI and Human Roles
51:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
52:17 Credits
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We’re back from summer break and we want to revisit some past pods as they get dragged into the current of current events, making our predictions as good - or even better - than the AI led herd. Today we’ve got a slew of stories to unpack, from AI Fakes and our podcast with the now-under-threat CEO of Boomy, the unwinding of the greatest money making machine you never heard of, and in Part Two revisiting our Ticketmaster / Live Nation show and the current fiasco of dynamic pricing for Oasis tickets.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of 'Bubble Trouble,' hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into two major topics affecting today's financial and entertainment markets. They discuss the recent fraudulent activities surrounding AI-generated music streams, detailing the $10 million scam involving fake fans and manipulated royalties. Moving on, they shed light on the Oasis ticketing debacle, where surge pricing and market manipulation led to skyrocketing ticket prices and public outcry. Throughout the episode, they revisit past discussions, particularly focusing on market turbulence and the intricacies of carry trades. The hosts promise more exciting content and insights into market dynamics as they kick off their autumn season.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome Back
01:08 Part One
01:33 Reflecting on Past Episodes
02:11 Summer Break and Market Turbulence
03:42 Understanding Carry Trades
09:46 Nvidia's Market Impact
13:07 AI Music Fraud Scandal
23:41 Part Two
23:41 Oasis Ticket Fiasco
24:59 Ticket Demand and Dynamic Pricing
26:30 Surge Pricing vs. Dynamic Pricing
30:58 The Role of Ticketmaster and Market Manipulation
36:03 Potential Solutions and Future Outlook
43:07 Concluding Thoughts and Wrap-Up
43:48 Credits
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This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Part One
01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor
01:26 Understanding New Constructs
02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street
03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble
04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business
05:37 The Reality of Wall Street
07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective
08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles
15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading
18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating
23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure
26:12 Part Two
27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics
27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals
28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?
28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion
29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts
29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms
30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis
33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach
35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis
47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks
50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions
50:59 Credits
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So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles
01:02 Part One
01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore
02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive
03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials
06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit
08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics
10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects
16:00 Part Two
16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights
20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations
21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off
21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive
23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections
24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic
25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals
27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality
29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics
34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs
38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape
40:20 Credits
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This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis. [Repeat from March 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu
This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.
00:02 Introduction
00:47 Part One
00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship
01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes
02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns
06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns
08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination
15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System
22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History
26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures
29:58 Part Two
30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises
31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics
32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China
32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges
33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future
33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble
34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies
35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation
39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks
41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness
46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies
55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility
59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises
01:00:30 Credits
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Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble. [Repeat from April 2024}
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes
00:59 Part One
01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization
03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry
06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role
07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities
11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe
14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure
22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability
27:12 Part Two
27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization
31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success
32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management
33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London
34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry
34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply
35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management
35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment
41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move
47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges
49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions
55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role
57:34 Credits
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For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions. [Repeat from December 2023]
0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:42 Part One
19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises
22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting
29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals
30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices
30:41 Government's Financial Engineering
30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics
32:25 Part Two
32:25 Inflation and its Impact
32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates
32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance
33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study
49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance
52:59 Credits
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For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company. [Repeat from November 2023]
0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One
00:02 Introduction
00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble
00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics
00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal
01:23 Part One
01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron
08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys
10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes
13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area
25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud
27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis
28:53 Part Two
28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow
30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy
31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron
32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions
35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation
38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting
41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting
46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank
53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation
54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two
55:31 Credits
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This week, we freeform on two topics: summer music festivals and the stock markets. Will has identified a very interesting bubble this summer, which is the rapid cancellation of music festivals. Perhaps because supply got ahead of demand or perhaps because of extraneous factors, we wanna look into why so few people want to be standing out in their field or outstanding in their field. We're also gonna talk a little bit about the way in which random comments from politicians are roiling the stock markets.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, economist Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer discuss the rapid cancellation of music festivals amidst the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic squeeze and over-supply of events. They detail the impact on the live music ecosystem, examining how financial constraints and shifting consumer choices are reshaping the market. Additionally, they delve into how random political comments are affecting the stock markets, with a specific focus on a recent market wobble triggered by remarks from Donald Trump and the narrowing breadth of tech stock support. The episode links the volatility in both the live music industry and financial markets, providing a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:58 Part One
00:58 The Decline of Music Festivals
02:09 Supply and Demand in Live Music
04:14 Economic Factors Affecting Festivals
07:29 The Impact on the Music Ecosystem
08:38 Dynamic Pricing and Ticketing Issues
15:44 The Future of Live Music and Festivals
20:33 Part Two
21:10 Market Turmoil: What's Happening?
22:39 The Fragility of the Market
23:37 Political Impact on Markets
24:12 Investor Reactions and Strategies
29:56 Global Market Contagion
33:23 The Tech Sector's Wild Ride
34:40 Political Volatility and Market Uncertainty
41:44 Credits
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Today we’ve got a guest who's been doing our job for decades. Andrew Orlowski is a writer who has followed the technology industry for two decades, so he’s see the hype cycle peak and trough many times.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by veteran technology journalist Andrew Orlowski. They delve into the recurring market bubbles and dissect the relentless hype surrounding AI and machine learning. Orlowski discusses his track record in identifying technology bubbles and shares his skepticism about the transformative claims made about AI, comparing it to historical overhyped innovations like the metaverse and cryptocurrency. The discussion also touches on the implications of AI on productivity, labor markets, and the economy at large, highlighting the disconnect between policy elites’ expectations and real-world applications. Throughout, the panel emphasizes the broader societal impacts and the role of critical scrutiny in understanding technological advancements.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:44 Part One
00:49 Meet Andrew Orlowski
01:43 The Origins of Bubble Trouble
02:06 Spotting Bubbles: Andrew's Track Record
02:39 Google's Market Manipulation
07:00 The AI Hype Cycle
12:08 AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism
19:10 The Future of AI and Technology
26:13 Debunking the Efficiency Myth in Tech Companies
26:39 The Role of AI in Financial Markets
28:10 AI Skepticism and the Hype Cycle
28:20 Part Two
29:02 The Future of Chatbots and Machine Learning
30:06 Public Skepticism vs. Elite Optimism
35:54 The Nature of Work and Productivity
42:13 The Middle Class Advantage in the Modern Workplace
45:40 The AI Bubble and Its Implications
49:01 Smoke Signals: Red Flags in the AI Industry
51:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
51:51 Credits
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[Repeat from November, 2023.]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page welcome Liam Maxwell, former Chief Technology Officer for the British government and current AWS Senior Advisor, to delve into the transformative potential of the cloud. Together, they break down how cloud-based technologies are revolutionizing different sectors, from governments to private enterprises. Exploring clear cases such as the Ukrainian war situation or the everyday banking experience in Singapore, they highlight the impressive efficiency, flexibility, and speed offered by the cloud. The discussion also touches on the major productivity gains the cloud provides, the importance of building services centered on user needs, and how the digital economy is captured by government indices.
00:00 Introduction
01:14 Part One
01:32 Interview with Liam Maxwell
01:54 Liam's Journey in Tech and Government
02:25 The Impact of Cloud on Government Services
06:40 The Transition from Traditional IT to Cloud
15:25 The Role of AI in Cloud Adoption
19:24 The Ukraine War and the Role of Cloud
20:35 The Process of Moving Ukraine's Data to the Cloud
27:56 Reflections on the Impact of Cloud Technology
29:33 The Power of Decision Making in Amazon
30:26 Reflections on the UK Government's Test and Trace App
30:58 Part Two
31:27 The Impact of Cloud Technology on Productivity
32:01 The Economic Value of Cloud Technology
33:33 The Paradox of Technological Efficiency and Economic Growth
35:38 The Invisible Contributions of Transformative Technology
37:04 The Role of Cloud Technology in Government Services
39:00 The Challenges of Measuring the Impact of Tech Jobs
39:19 The Potential of Cloud Technology in Enhancing Public Services
51:57 The Impact of Tech Neologisms on Service Delivery
55:23 Closing Remarks and Reflections
56:25 Credits
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This week, part two of our continued conversation with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the intricacies of technology bubbles with special guest Benedict Evans. The discussion revolves around AI advancements, particularly focusing on Apple's recent integrations of AI models, the differentiation between small and large models, and the implications for email summarization and other features. They explore the economic and strategic decisions behind Apple's use of AI, the potential for various large language models (LLMs) to disrupt industries like legal tech, and the broader market dynamics and antitrust considerations. The conversation also touches on the challenges and opportunities presented by these technological advancements, emphasizing the importance of careful analysis and skepticism in the face of rapid innovation.
00:03 Introduction
00:29 Part One
00:29 AI and Apple's New Developments
01:53 Apple's AI Integration and Market Dynamics
04:20 The Evolution of AI Models and Market Impact
12:29 Antitrust and Market Strategies
17:34 Cloud Computing and Business Models
24:49 The Future of Cloud Machine Learning Providers
25:36 Marginal Costs in Consumer Internet Companies
26:16 Generative AI and Cost Efficiency
28:14 Part Two
28:14 Legal Tech and Large Language Models
30:05 Challenges in Selling Software to Law Firms
31:08 Error Rates and AI Hallucinations
34:36 Practical Use Cases for AI in Legal Scenarios
36:27 Evaluating AI's Potential and Limitations
41:05 Recognizing Tech Bubbles and Market Hype
44:59 Concluding Thoughts on AI and Market Trends
47:27 Credits
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This week we are talking bubbles - or not! - with Benedict Evans, an analyst with over 175,000 avid readers for his tech blog. We’ve done our level best to reflect on why bubbles happen, but what about calling them out before they burst. “It would have been nice to have known” we were in a bubble before it caused trouble. That wish fits like an OJ Simpson glove into a recent column by Benedict exploring how and when to call them. With AI mania and NVIDIA up 130% this year and 700% in 18 months, lifting many other boats with it, this will be a timely conversation.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the phenomenon of market bubbles with tech analyst Benedict Evans. They discuss the intricacies of identifying bubbles before they burst, explore the role and future implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI), and touch upon how companies disclose crucial data. Benedict shares his career journey and insights on tech market dynamics, providing a detailed perspective on AI's potential impacts and strategic questions surrounding tech advancements. This episode offers a mix of reflective analysis and forward-looking forecasts in the tech landscape.
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Meet Benedict Evans
01:22 Benedict's Career Journey
02:59 The Art of Simplifying Complex Points
07:48 The Role of Public Companies in Market Bubbles
13:01 Tech Industry Cycles and Bubbles
19:56 Part Two
20:13 Generative AI: The Next Big Thing?
36:44 The Future of AI and Its Impact
39:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
40:20 Credits
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This week we’re going to split lanes as we’ve got breaking news coming out of Canada that Will’s been knee deep in: soon after their Government tried to regulate Google and Meta news, they’re now after Spotify and Netflix. Think contagion and buckle up - this may well be the sign of the regulatory times. Once we’re done with Canadians, we turn our attention to Cuppertino as we’ve just seen the WWDC wrap up the calendar of set piece marketing - Google, Meta, Microsoft and more - all now done and dusted. It's all become a slick operation, but what’s and not said can help us decipher the narratives of the most watched companies on the planet and these events have now gone mainstream.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page delve into the recent regulatory developments in Canada targeting streaming giants like Spotify and Netflix following earlier regulation attempts on Google and Meta. They explore the implications of Canada's new gross revenue contribution policy on streaming services and its potential impact on consumers and competitors. Additionally, the duo examines the wrap-up of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and discusses the trends, leaks, and undertones of major tech company events, including the strategic presentations, the nuances of unsaid elements, and the ever-tightening grip of technological giants on the market. The episode aims to provide insights into the evolving landscape of tech regulation and market domination.
00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:08 Canadian Regulatory News
01:12 Impact on Streaming Services
01:30 Historical Context of Canadian Regulations
02:24 Current Regulatory Actions and Reactions
07:51 Tech Giants' Marketing Events
08:39 The Magnificent Seven and Market Concentration
10:17 The Role of Marketing in Tech
11:17 The Evolution of Tech Events
18:21 The Importance of Perception in Tech Announcements
21:03 Reading Between the Lines
32:14 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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This week we turn to regulatory bubbles and the new buzz word: Gatekeepers! What are they, and what are they not and what gates do they actually keep? In forty five days, the European Commission drummed up an answer, while the US DoJ starts a court case about Google paying for search bar placements like Heinz beans play for shelf space in the grocery store. We’ve got 45 minutes with one of the best brains on the topic, Konstantina Bania, a Partner at the top firm Geradin Partners to understand all this. [Repeat from September, 2023.]
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This summer, a lot of us (and our children) will be packing our tents and heading to music festivals and concerts - there is trouble brewing. At one end, good luck buying a ticket and watching those fees add up. At the other end, the DoJ threw down the gauntlet and argued that Live Nation Ticketmaster needs to be broken up. This is big for music, and it’s also big for anti-trust - they’ve actually picked a fight and we’re ringing the bell for round one. Gloves off, where might there be punches below the belt. What can markets learn when the DoJ enters the ring?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: The Live Nation Antitrust Case
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Independent Analyst Richard Kramer and Economist Will Page delve into the intricacies of the Live Nation antitrust case brought by the DOJ. They explore the history of antitrust regulations, Live Nation's market dominance, and the implications for the live music industry. The discussion covers topics such as the control of ticketing, venues, and artists by Live Nation, the bundling of services, and the economic impact on smaller venues. The hosts debate the potential outcomes of the case and critique the inefficiencies in the current ticketing system, especially the Ticketmaster app. They also touch on broader issues in live music, including the decline of small venues and the impact of social isolation on festival attendance.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
01:16 Part One
01:46 Understanding Antitrust and Live Nation's Market Power
03:59 Live Nation's Business Model and Market Impact
16:00 Part Two
17:15 The Ticketmaster Experience: A Consumer's Nightmare
27:06 Economic Realities of the Live Music Industry
34:44 Conclusion and Future Outlook
38:15 Credits
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When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.
00:00 Introduction
01:18 Part One
02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked
06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior
10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks
16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share
18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans
23:09 Part Two
24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact
25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges
26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers
27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding
28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization
34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets
40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions
42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading
46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
46:53 Credits
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This week, with the world of podcasting descending on London for the Podcast Show, we’re going to turn the tables on ourselves and get a little introspective, figuring out what is happening with this Podcast format. This time two years ago, we got a little ahead of our skis with Spotify, Amazon and the like spending eight (and nine) figure sums on podcast companies. That bubble burst and now we’re picking up the pieces to see what the future might resemble given its recent roller coaster past. To do that, two guests and two of the very best: James Cridland, author of the bible that is Podnews and Jonas Woost of Bumper. The former understands the industry, the latter understands the listener and by the end of this conversation you’ll find podcasts and podcasting a more rewarding listen.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The episode features a discussion on the evolving dynamics of podcasting, including the recent burst of the investment bubble in the sector, the impact of this shift, and what the future holds for podcast creators and companies. Guests include James Cridland, editor of Pod News, and Jonas Woost from Bumper, who share insights into the industry trends, listener engagement, and the complexities of podcast advertising. The conversation also explores the nuances of podcast data analysis, the importance of understanding 'actual listening' versus 'downloads', and strategies for podcast growth and monetization. The episode aims to provide a comprehensive look at both the business side of podcasting and the listener engagement aspect, intending to inform and guide podcast creators and industry stakeholders.
00:02 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:10 Introducing the Experts: Insights from the Front Lines
02:43 The Podcasting Landscape: Numbers, Growth, and Challenges
06:53 Adapting to Change: Strategies for Success in Podcasting
15:48 Understanding Podcast Advertising: Data, Attribution, and Impact
22:34 The Evolution of Podcast Metrics: Attention Over Downloads
22:43 The Power of Feedback: From Music to Podcasts
23:37 Part Two
23:46 Navigating the Podcast Landscape: Insights and Strategies
24:25 Decoding Podcast Listenership: Beyond the Numbers
32:02 The Future of Podcast Advertising: Challenges and Opportunities
32:10 The Intimacy of Podcasting: Engaging Niche Audiences
41:48 The Podcast Show Preview: Expectations and Predictions
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Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter
02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter
06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored
09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model
14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter
18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter
21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance
23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations
24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence
25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope
27:27 Part Two
27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter
27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership
28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety
36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?
40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword
44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View
46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements
47:01 Credits
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Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes
00:59 Part One
01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization
03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry
06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role
07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities
11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe
14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure
22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability
27:12 Part Two
27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization
31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success
32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management
33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London
34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry
34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply
35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management
35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment
41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move
47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges
49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions
55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role
57:34 Credits
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This week we turn our attention back to private markets where Richard’s prior smoke signals may be bearing fruit. That is, we’re getting reports that private equity is playing pass the parcel: selling assets to themselves that they can’t exit and doing so at their own valuations. Marking your own homework? Delaying a bubble that’s sure to burst? Or is it simply remortgaging from one bank to another. [Repeat from October, 2023.]
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This week we have a distinguished guest with an estimable track record at calling out the machinations and malfeasance behind the numbers: Stephen Clapham, the driving force of Behind the Balance Sheet, a podcast of the same name and education company. Stephen helps teach fund managers and others the tricks of financial chicanery and magical massaging of the numbers. (Repeat from July, 2024.)
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Our recent episode on Reddit was a surprise hit, as was the stock - temporarily - so we’ll be diving into that and much more. This week, a look at the volatile nature of financial markets with discussions around recent events, critiquing the creator economy, speculative frenzy in cryptocurrencies, and tech market overvaluation.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer dive into discussions about financial market volatility and the phenomenon of market bubbles, touching on topics like the recent Reddit IPO and the cryptocurrency crisis exemplified by FTX’s fallout. They critically assess the risk and reality of investments, using illustrative examples to underline the often speculative nature of today’s financial markets. They also segue into discussions on the creator economy, the disruptive potential of AI and chips in the movie industry, and concerns around the instability of personal debt amidst rising interest rates. The episode concludes with recommendations for insightful reads, exploring themes from technological impacts on society to the resilience needed in today's challenging world.
00:02 Introduction
00:38 Part One
06:17 The Reality of Stock Market Manias and Personal Debt
08:25 Exploring the Trump SPAC and the Fate of Cameo
12:45 The Crypto Conundrum: Skepticism Meets Reality
16:52 Part Two
16:52 Navigating the Creator Economy and Tech Innovations at SXSW
22:19 The Economic Impact of Data Centers
22:46 AMD's Influence in the Film Industry
23:31 The Challenges of AI in Hollywood
24:38 Chip Makers: The New Brand Ambassadors
25:31 Rethinking the Creator Economy
26:46 The Long Tail Dilemma in the Creator Economy
27:48 The Misconception of Loyalty in the Digital Age
31:49 Music Industry's Paradox: Growth vs. Sustainability
33:43 Inflation's Impact on the Music Industry
36:43 Easter Reading Recommendations
41:28 Closing Thoughts and Future Episodes
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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a deep dive conversation with guest Bill Raduchel, exploring his extensive 60-year career transitioning from chemical engineering to economics, and eventually into the tech and media industries. Raduchel discusses his views on conventional wisdom, the evolution of technology, and its implications on economics, suggesting that technology has outpaced neoclassical economic theories due to its scaling properties and the significance of information. He shares insights from his book and experiences, addressing issues like tech debt, government staffing challenges in the face of rapid technological advancements, and the potential impact of AI on the future of software development. The episode covers the dynamic between big tech companies, government regulation, and the inevitable challenges posed by significant shifts towards AI and increased power demands. Raduchel also presents intriguing ideas on innovating government structures and discusses the practicalities of managing a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation
00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics
06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics
08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book
11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges
17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing
19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization
25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics
25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two
25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword
25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity
26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation
27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges
29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization
30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation
31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation
34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech
40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation
42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce
44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation
50:06 Credits
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This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…
Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Part One
00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights
01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity
02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue
04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society
07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector
11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance
13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency
16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge
22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen
23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation
23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth
25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands
26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag
27:22 Part Two
27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity
28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity
32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities
36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality
43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark
47:28 Credits
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So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles
01:02 Part One
01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore
02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive
03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials
06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit
08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics
10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects
16:00 Part Two
16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights
20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations
21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off
21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive
23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections
24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic
25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals
27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality
29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics
34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs
38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape
40:20 Credits
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When looking at today's issues of privacy, social media, and AI, we can draw a lot from the battles of the browsers over the past 30 years. To explore this, we welcome a close friend onto the show, the father of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend, Brendan Eich. Brendan left the CTO role of Mozilla firefox years ago and embarked on a journey to scale up a privacy-first browser and search business that would reward the sites you visit with a token reflecting your attention and value. (Repeat from July, 2023)
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Navigating the AI Hype: Lessons from a Tech Visionary
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist-author Will Page engage in a rich conversation with Brendan Eich, the creator of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend. They delve into the intricacies of the tech industry, exploring AI developments, privacy issues, and the history of browser wars. Eich discusses his journey from Netscape to founding Brave, a privacy-first browser and search business, sharing insights on big tech’s strategies, the pitfalls of surveillance capitalism, and the nuances of rewarding creators in the digital age. Furthermore, the trio critiques current AI hype, discussing its implications for the tech ecosystem and underlining the interplay between technological innovation and user empowerment.
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble
00:59 Part One
03:03 Tackling Surveillance Capitalism and the Creator Economy
06:24 Privacy, Policy, and the Power of User-First Philosophy
12:29 The Evolution of Browser Wars and the Role of Regulation
24:06 Part Two
24:10 AI's Potential to Disrupt Big Tech's Dominance
25:28 AI Models and Data Quality Challenges
26:24 The Impact of AI on Content Creation and Privacy
27:06 Economic Foundations and the Strategy Tax in Tech
30:55 The Power of Defaults and Consumer Choices
36:33 Regulating AI: Industry Perspectives and Challenges
39:07 The Future of Translation and AI's Role
44:00 Navigating the Hype: AI Investments and the Reality
47:10 Closing Thoughts on AI, Privacy, and the Future of Tech
47:48 Credits
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This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu
This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored.
00:02 Introduction
00:47 Part One
00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship
01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes
02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns
06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns
08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination
15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System
22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History
26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures
29:58 Part Two
30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises
31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics
32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China
32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges
33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future
33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble
34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies
35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation
39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks
41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness
46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies
55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility
59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises
01:00:30 Credits
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This week, Will is just back from Brussels after addressing the European parliament on media and technology and, well, he’s doesn't see too impressed with his first visit since Brexit. And given we’ve discussed super stocks last week, this week we want to explore if any of those super stocks are going to come from the European Union, and equally, dig into whether the stereotypes about the Old World still ring true.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the current state of the European tech industry. Will, fresh from a visit to Brussels, shares his experiences and perspectives on the bureaucracy, inefficiencies, and regulatory struggles prevalent in the European Union and its tech scene. Addressing the European Parliament on media and technology, Will discusses the vast gap in entrepreneurship and tech innovation between the U.S and Europe, with the latter lagging significantly. He criticizes Europe's over-protectionism towards their tech industry, arguing that this approach does more harm than good. Furthermore, they discuss the digital markets act passed in Europe, labor markets, grandstanding politics, and tech nationalism. This episode concludes with the hosts scrutinizing the desperate need for productive economic reforms and forward-thinking policies in Europe's institutional systems and tech sector.
00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:48 Part One
02:39 Comparison of American and European Entrepreneurship
10:39 Insights on Tech Companies' Lifespan and Exit Strategies
18:22 Part Two
18:47 Addressing the European Parliament and Tech Concerns
21:14 The Digital Markets Act and its Implications
22:48 The Problem with Big Tech
23:52 The Impact of Regulations on Startups
24:41 The First Mover Advantage and Regulatory Catch Up
24:49 The Debate on In-App Purchases
25:18 The Frustration with Dysfunctional Systems
26:06 The Paralysis of Legislators
26:43 The Role of Regulation in Business
27:38 The Dilemma of Intellectual Property and AI
28:16 The Risk of Monopolizing AI Wealth
28:37 The Misguided Efforts in AI Legislation
33:30 The Issue with Job Security in Public Sector
38:33 The Problem with Regulatory Nationalism
40:04 The Struggles of Brussels
40:45 Closing Remarks and Future Plans
41:29 Credits
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This week Richard puts Will on the hot seat, and review all his amazing work on the economics of the music industry, something that is a lot smaller than everyone imagines, even if it touches all of us deeply.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Super Fans and Music: The Shape of the Music Industry
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, super skeptical analysts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the concept of 'super fans' in the music industry. They critique the idea that fans' increasing ability to interact directly with artists is reshaping the music industry. They draw a parallel between their industry and finance, highlighting the importance of algorithmic methods in both. They also delve into the thriving local music scenes in various countries due to streaming and direct artist-to-fan communication. Furthermore, they analyze the potential impacts of AI on the music industry, noting that AI-created music doesn't compete with human-made music and that major music platforms are making staff cuts due to market saturation and reduced growth. In Brussels, they signal plans to discuss policies against 'bad actors' on platforms, responsible AI, fair remuneration for authors, and transparency of algorithms. The episode wraps up emphasizing the value of user comments as a metric of audience engagement.
00:00 Introduction
00:36 Part One
01:06 The Super Fan Phenomenon
03:41 Understanding the Super Fan Economy
04:27 The Impact of User-Centric Models
08:39 The Power of Direct Communication with Fans
10:21 The Rise of Glocalization
17:25 The Influence of Algorithms in Music
19:23 Part Two
21:30 The Economics of Emerging Markets in the Music Industry
22:24 Understanding the Impact of Data Costs and Conversion Models
23:20 The Challenges of Operating in India's Media Market
24:08 The Music Industry's Growth Bubble and the Role of AI
25:17 The Limitations of Algorithms in Music Curation
26:21 The Impact of AI on Music Consumption and Creation
26:57 The Value of Human Curation in Music
28:03 The Role of Algorithms in Global Music Trends
28:54 The Intersection of Music and Finance
32:56 The EU's Approach to Music and Media Markets
36:14 The Power of Super Fans and the Resistance Factor
39:10 The Significance of Comments in Measuring Engagement
40:37 Wrapping Up: The Future of Music and Finance
41:33 Credits
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This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks
In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.
00:01 Introduction
00:48 Part One
00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory
03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?
07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets
22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech
23:13 Part Two
23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech
38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts
41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments
41:54 Credits
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This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts.
00:00 Introduction
00:57 Part One
01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor
01:26 Understanding New Constructs
02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street
03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble
04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business
05:37 The Reality of Wall Street
07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective
08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles
15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading
18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating
23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure
26:12 Part Two
27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics
27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals
28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman?
28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion
29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts
29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms
30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis
33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach
35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis
47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks
50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions
50:59 Credits
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Our guest this week is Hugh Hendry, a man who found fortunes walking the tightropes as booms turned to busts. Founder and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, London, a Global Macro Hedge Fund, from 2002 to 2017, where its “high water mark” events were the early and successful identification of the gold bull market in 2003 and the housing debacle in the US in 2008. [Repeat from June, 2023.]
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One of the giant iceberg industries - it's all around us but we don’t really see it - is advertising. Frequently touted as the first to suffer, first to recover on the economic cycle, but also counter cyclical, since you need to sell harder in tougher times. Now we are seeing wobbles in economic data, some serious haircuts in tech exits and layoffs from the great and the good, it seems only right that we double down on a massive global ads market this week to see if it is suffering and if it is - might there be troubles ahead?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: Navigating the World of Digital Advertising
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the state of digital advertising, its potential growth, the impact of technological trends, and the challenges it faces in terms of fraud and wasteful spending. They discuss the influence of AI in advertising, the philosophy behind programmatic advertising, and how economic cycles affect advertising spend. They also delve into the strategies employed by big companies like Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram in the face of fraudulent activities. Richard points out marketers' inherent conflicts of interest and the ways AI could enhance ad targeting and testing. The hosts end with an insight into how poor economic periods could push companies to advertise harder to maintain their market presence.
00:00 Introduction
00:53 Part One
01:41 Understanding the Imperfections of the Advertising Market
01:57 The Size and Giants of the Advertising Market
02:36 The Impact of Social Media and Retail Media on Advertising
05:32 The Journey of Advertising: From Brand to Direct
21:43 The Influence of AI on Advertising
25:22 Addressing Ad Fraud in the Advertising Industry
25:48 Part Two
26:21 The Problem with Stream Fraud
26:39 Understanding the Different Types of Ad Fraud
27:20 The Impact of Fraud on the Music Industry
28:25 The Role of Bots in Ad Fraud
28:28 The Rise of Made-for-Advertising Sites
29:16 The Challenges of Programmatic Advertising
30:58 The Dangers of Malvertising
32:33 The Fear of Outing Fraudsters
37:49 The Future of Advertising on WhatsApp
43:16 The Impact of Elections on Advertising
47:26 The Role of AI in Improving Ad Targeting
48:12 The Influence of Advertising on Economic Cycles
48:27 Conclusion: The Imperfections and Opportunities in Advertising
50:01 Credits
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With 340-odd days ahead, what are the smoke signals - good and bad - that you need to be aware of? Today we look forward, and make sense of the madness ahead of us in 2024.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: A Look at 2024's Economic Pitfalls and Opportunities
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss their outlook for 2024, examining potential economic headwinds and tailwinds. They predict turbulence ahead, citing macroeconomic swings, cutbacks in sectors like luxury goods, upcoming global elections, and changes in the tech landscape. They consider the potential impact of AI, particularly in the public sector, with potential benefits in education, health, and law. The hosts also discuss the uptake of Duolingo, reflecting on the broader success of apps that can maintain usage frequency.
00:00 Introduction
01:01 Part One
01:26 The Impact of Economic Headwinds
03:01 The Role of AI and Technology in the Economy
04:23 The Impact of Job Cuts and Unemployment
05:01 The Influence of Tech Companies on the Economy
08:43 The Impact of Macro Swings and Uncertainties
14:12 The Influence of Political Cycles on Economic Cycles
20:25 Part Two
20:25 The Potential of AI in Transforming Public Services
31:31 The Role of Drama in Influencing Public Opinion
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This week we’re in conversation with a special guest, someone who The Independent argued that he may be “the most influential man in British television.” Sir Peter Bazalegette. The man who brought Big Brother to our screens during his tenure at Endemol, steered the Arts Council England through a period of austerity and was recently chairman of the board of ITV. No one is better placed to make sense of the creative industries and the bubbles they perennially produce. (Repeat from March, 2023)
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Today, we turn our attention to a massive credit bubble that burst and dumped toxic sewage in the form of shell companies and endless debt on public utilities. A scandal is unfolding at Thames Water - London’s waterworks that’s frankly been drowned in debt by the private equity owners. To twist this up a notch, we’re joined by the Northern Irish former punk singer Feargal Sharkey has turned his legendary energy to a cause that's deeply dear to his fly fishing heart - that of England’s beleaguered and abused rivers and streams. It's a great reminder of how these financial bubbles impact all our lives, and Feargal's dogged pursuit of justice on behalf of all of us who like to swim, fish or just enjoy the sight of the UKs precious rivers. (Repeat from July, 2023)
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This week we want to wrap up a stellar year of topics, guests and unimaginable bubbly behavior, and not just of the kind of champagne at holiday parties.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
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Bubble Trouble: 2023 in Review & Predictions for 2024
Bubble Trouble: 2023 & Looking Ahead to 2024
In this year-end episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer look back at the action-packed year of 2023 and the spectacular bubbles that burst within it. They discuss the turbulent direction of AI, the volatility in the podcast market, and address podcast topics including the integrity of financial statements and Britain's water crisis. The episode also features a reflection on past guests and their insights on different industry sectors. Looking forward to 2024, the hosts contemplate upcoming bubbles and the potential impact of global politics, elections, and interest rates.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Part One
01:00 Reflecting on the Journey of Bubble Trouble
01:58 Reflection on the Bubbles that Burst
02:11 The Metaverse, NFTs, and the Reality Check
02:35 The Impact of the Consumer Debt and the Bubbles Bursting
02:58 Predictions for the Bubbles in 2024
04:40 The Role of AI in the Tech World
06:42 The Impact of Interest Rates on the App Economy
07:00 The Economic Climate and Spotify's Job Losses
07:52 The Impact of a Normal Functioning Finance System
21:45 Part Two
21:56 The Podcast Bubble: An Analysis
22:29 The Impact of AI on Music and Entertainment
22:48 The Rise and Fall of Podcasts and NFTs
23:07 The Truth about Audience Figures in Podcasting
24:41 The Future of Podcast Advertising
26:16 The Advertising Market in the Digital Age
26:45 The Challenges of Media Advertising
28:16 The Impact of Time Shifting on Podcast Advertising
28:40 The Dilemma of Monetizing Podcasts
28:55 The State of the Podcast Industry
39:00 The Impact of AI on the Economy
40:06 The Effects of Job Cuts
43:44 Closing Remarks and Acknowledgements
44:45 Credits
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Economics wont get you a lot of spicy dates… but we delve into a fantastically accessible book that compliments this podcast like gin and tonic. This week we’re going to be in conversation with the authors of "Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles," an engaging tour of the last 300 years of bubbles. (Repeat from May 2023).
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this intriguing episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a lively chat with the authors of 'Boom and Bust'- William Quinn and John Turner. They focus on the principles governing financial bubbles over the last 300 years. Along the way, they explore topics like the effects of quantitative easing, importance of marketability, and the benefits and drawbacks of certain economic policies. The conversation also touches upon the impact of speculation, implications of central bank independence, and the role of media in shaping economic perspectives.
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This week wrap up our conversation with Andy Fastow, the former CFO of Enron. [Part 2 of 2]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions.
0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:42 Part One
19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises
22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting
29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals
30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices
30:41 Government's Financial Engineering
30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics
32:25 Part Two
32:25 Inflation and its Impact
32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates
32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance
33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study
49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance
52:59 Credits
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This week we take you back to one of the biggest bubble bursting in living memory, Enron, which went from Americas 7th largest company to bankrupt within a year at the turn of the millennium. How many booms, busts, frauds and financial irregularities have we witnessed since? Now, 100 episodes in, we get to sit down and LEARN from Andy Fastow, the former CFO of Enron. We’ve wanted this guest on the pod since, well, before the podcast began - buckle up for a conversation about what happened that fateful year, why it's continued to happen since and where and how, not if, the same will happen again.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company.
0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One
00:02 Introduction
00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble
00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics
00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal
01:23 Part One
01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron
08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys
10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes
13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area
25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud
27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis
28:53 Part Two
28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow
30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy
31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron
32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions
35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation
38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting
41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting
46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank
53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation
54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two
55:31 Credits
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This week we’re going to tap into a topic that’s been ignored to date - the excitement that surrounds the big three cloud services of Microsoft (Azure), Google (GCP) and the market leader Amazon AWS. Are we getting ahead of our skies about what is another form of storage, or is this a truly game changing way that organisations can transform everything that they do? We’re joined by Liam Maxwell and this conversation travels from the clouds above Amazon HQ in Seattle (where it rains all the time) to the rather different clouds above the Ukraine, where Liam played a pivotal role in securing their government’s data.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page welcome Liam Maxwell, former Chief Technology Officer for the British government and current AWS Senior Advisor, to delve into the transformative potential of the cloud. Together, they break down how cloud-based technologies are revolutionizing different sectors, from governments to private enterprises. Exploring clear cases such as the Ukrainian war situation or the everyday banking experience in Singapore, they highlight the impressive efficiency, flexibility, and speed offered by the cloud. The discussion also touches on the major productivity gains the cloud provides, the importance of building services centered on user needs, and how the digital economy is captured by government indices.
00:00 Introduction
01:14 Part One
01:32 Interview with Liam Maxwell
01:54 Liam's Journey in Tech and Government
02:25 The Impact of Cloud on Government Services
06:40 The Transition from Traditional IT to Cloud
15:25 The Role of AI in Cloud Adoption
19:24 The Ukraine War and the Role of Cloud
20:35 The Process of Moving Ukraine's Data to the Cloud
27:56 Reflections on the Impact of Cloud Technology
29:33 The Power of Decision Making in Amazon
30:26 Reflections on the UK Government's Test and Trace App
30:58 Part Two
31:27 The Impact of Cloud Technology on Productivity
32:01 The Economic Value of Cloud Technology
33:33 The Paradox of Technological Efficiency and Economic Growth
35:38 The Invisible Contributions of Transformative Technology
37:04 The Role of Cloud Technology in Government Services
39:00 The Challenges of Measuring the Impact of Tech Jobs
39:19 The Potential of Cloud Technology in Enhancing Public Services
51:57 The Impact of Tech Neologisms on Service Delivery
55:23 Closing Remarks and Reflections
56:25 Credits
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This week we turn to the unavoidable Mr Musk and his beached fail whale, X, formerly known as Twitter. Did he take something mediocre and make it worse? Was it deliverate sabotage, or willful ignorance? Blunder or bluster, megaphone or mega-fall from grace? Wiht us we have veteran tech journalist Alex Kantrowitz to help solve for X.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.
00:00 Intro
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:19 Discussing Twitter's Past and Present
00:46 Part One
00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz
02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model
06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism
07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms
08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy
09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers
15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends
28:47 Part Two
32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?
36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads
36:34 The Struggles of Threads
36:59 The Power of Network Effects
38:17 The Limitations of Threads
39:48 The Rise of Reddit
40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape
40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter
41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta
44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces
45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter
49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership
54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies
58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions
59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter
01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology
01:02:34 Credits
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This week we look at that special "class" of investors who are busy raising their heads again to challenge management in a time of turmoil: the activist. Who are they, what gives them power and when they wield that power what’s the fall out. (Repeat)
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This week we look at one of the noisiest self promoters on the VC carnival barker circuit, a man who famously said software eats the world when he has stocked his portfolio with software companies, with some wild claims about techno optimism. With our skeptical hat on we look at what's behind this and unpack the fears and hopes for the revolution to come.
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This week we turn our attention back to private markets where Richard’s prior smoke signals may be bearing fruit. That is, we’re getting reports that private equity is playing pass the parcel: selling assets to themselves that they can’t exit and doing so at their own valuations. Marking your own homework? Delaying a bubble that’s sure to burst? Or is it simply remortgaging from one bank to another.
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We know why you, our audience, listen to podcasts... to impress friends at dinner parties. Now waht about extending a 35 minute pod to a 15 hour audiobook? And that’s where we’re turning our attention to today, audiobooks have been in the news here in the UK (and Australia) with Spotify trying, a year after spending $135m buying a tiny company in Ohio, to get into that market. So listen up to a podcast about audiobooks and while you do, ask yourself what’s the difference in these two formats anyway?
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This week, its just Will quizzing Richard with an ocean separating their microphones, as Will squeezes that thirty year veteran of the markets like a sponge to get us all up to speed on whether those bubbles are building everywhere in financial markets.
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Bubble Trouble has spent 90+ episodes in the studios exposing sycophants and stenographers. More recently, we went from the studio to the stage, with both of us top billing the Financial Times Weekend Festival at Kenwood House. Richard’s panel, aptly titled ‘The new goldrush: how to make money out of tech.' So this week we want to get back to the show title - ‘Bubbles’ and ask: Is the bubble back?
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This week we turn to regulatory bubbles and the new buzz word: Gatekeepers! What are they, and what are they not and what gates do they actually keep? In forty five days, the European Commission drummed up an answer, while the US DoJ starts a court case about Google paying for search bar placements like Heinz beans play for shelf space in the grocery store. We’ve got 45 minutes with one of the best brains on the topic, Konstantina Bania, a Partner at the top firm Geradin Partners to understand all this.
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This week James Ashton joins us to talk about the complicated dance around the re-listing of ARM in the first tech IPO in some time. Few IPOs come this big, and few have had to revise down their target market price so quickly. All chips are on red, and we’re ready to spin the wheel and see where this UK tech darling lands on the US NASDAQ.
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You may have heard about the recent collaboration between Drake and The Weeknd that wasn't a real collaboration, but an AI-generated fake. This incident is a canary in the coalmine not just for the music industry, but any creator or rights holders across numberous industries. Joining us to discuss is Jessica Powell of AudioShake, an A.I. startup that builds sound separation software to help musicians make additional revenue for their work. (Repeat from May, 2023.)
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This week, the second of two episodes with Dan McCrum of the Financial Times about his investigative reporting into the massive fraud at the German financial firm Wirecard. (Repeat from October, 2022.)
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This week we have the first of two episodes with Dan McCrum of the Financial Times about his investigative reporting into the massive fraud at the German financial firm Wirecard. (Repeat from September, 2022.)
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We continue our exploration into the dinner party topic of converation on everyone’s lips: AI with the first of many very special guests on the topic, Professor Chris Speed. This week, we take a design lens to the problems (and the solutions) that AI presents us with. (Repeat from April, 2023).
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We don't do shameless plugs here on Bubble Trouble, but we're making an exception for our esteem co-host Will Page on the publication of the paperback edition of Tarzan Economics, renamed Pivot: Eight Principles for Transforming your Business in a Time of Disruption. (Repeat from January, 2023).
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We’ve talked to some of the biggest names in AI, - Audioshake, Stability and Boomy but this week, we’re going to Mayk.it with Stefán Heinrich Henriquez - and his new start up Mayk.it. His plans appear to be making all the world a stage and musicians of us all.
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When looking at today's issues of privacy, social media, and AI, we can draw a lot from the battles of the browsers over the past 30 years. To explore this, we welcome a close friend onto the show, the father of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend, Brendan Eich. Brendan left the CTO role of Mozilla firefox years ago and embarked on a journey to scale up a privacy-first browser and search business that would reward the sites you visit with a token reflecting your attention and value.
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We’ve talked to some of the biggest names in AI, but today, we want to get behind the controversy over Boomy, with co-founder Alex Mitchell. To date, Boomy “artists” have created 16 million “original” AI-generated songs. That’s more music than the iTunes Music Store had at its peak. And most of the Boomy songs, apparently, are now on Spotify available to stream after a controversial takedown episode we’ll get into. Moreover this is AI in action, whether this is a dystopian future or the shape of things to come.
This week we have a distinguished guest with an estimable track record at calling out the machinations and malfeasance behind the numbers: Stephen Clapham, the driving force of Behind the Balance Sheet, a podcast of the same name and education company. Stephen helps teach fund managers and others the tricks of financial chicanery and magical massaging of the numbers.
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Today, we turn our attention to a massive credit bubble that burst and dumped toxic sewage in the form of shell companies and endless debt on public utilities. A scandal is unfolding at Thames Water - London’s waterworks that’s frankly been drowned in debt by the private equity owners. To twist this up a notch, we’re joined by the Northern Irish former punk singer Feargal Sharkey has turned his legendary energy to a cause that's deeply dear to his fly fishing heart - that of England’s beleaguered and abused rivers and streams. It's a great reminder of how these financial bubbles impact all our lives, and Feargals dogged pursuit of justice on behalf of all of us who like to swim, fish or just enjoy the sight of the UKs precious rivers.
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One of the giant bubbles of the last decades has clearly been, in many regions of the world, real estate. For this week's episode, we're looking forward, not backward with Dror Poleg, an economic historian and inspirational thinker who's figuring out how we work, where we work, and what work we might be doing in this post pandemic world. (Repeat from December, 2022)
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Our guest this week is Hugh Hendry, a man who found fortunes walking the tightropes as booms turned to busts. Founder and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, London, a Global Macro Hedge Fund, from 2002 to 2017, where its “high water mark” events were the early and successful identification of the gold bull market in 2003 and the housing debacle in the US in 2008.
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This week we want give a hat tip to the Financial Times, reporting on how the "Bank of England to review use of economic forecasts." As so often happens with the FT, the comments were even better than the article, which like us have been despairing for years about central bank economic models constantly getting wrongfooted by the real world. Asleep at the wheel or making the best of an impossible job? A second helping of Bailey’s many shortcomings as head of the regulator (the FCA) or victim of circumstance? We put the head of the BoE, Andrey Bailey and the economists and forecasters on the dock about the record of causing, not popping bubbles.
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Economics wont get you a lot of spicy dates… but we delve into a fantastically accessible book that compliments this podcast like gin and tonic. This week we’re going to be in conversation with the authors of "Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles," an engaging tour of the last 300 years of bubbles.
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This week we catch up with the subject that is near and dear to our hearts: the business of podcasting. Will is fresh from two days at the industry's leading event in London where thousands of people got together to figure out can they actually make money from podcasting, an emerging new medium that is yet to find its footing as a commercial enterprise.
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In recent episodes we’ve been boasting ”if there’s a bubble that burst, we pricked it first” but events at SBV caught us off guard. This bubble burst before our eyes and now the one word on the market's lips is contagion. But we’ve been here before, AND we’ll be here again - banks are being bailed out for their incompetence and central banks are scrambling to respond . (Repeat from March, 2023)
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This episode, we'll get Will Page’s impressions of the bubbles gathering around that island and what tsunami warning horns ought to be blaring when we talk about NFTs. (Repeat)
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
This week we continue our exploration of the bait of all click baits, the bandwagon that's traveling across the internet, that is The Metaverse. We're gonna move our dialogue up a gear with our very special, legendary guest, Sir Martin Sorrell, the founder of the WPP Group, and since 2018, the chairman of S4 Capital. He's described her current foray into the metaverse as being in the foothills. So let's get climbing.
This week Will’s out of his bat cave and produced his annual global value of music copyright which - when rounded up - would hit $40bn. That means all the worlds music is worth almost as much as Twitter.
This week we give the right of reply to an earlier episode (BT 49: Newspaper Subscriptions Versus Music Subscriptions) that raised more than a few hackles in the publishing community and opened a can of worms. Our guest is James Hewes, CEO of FIPP.
There are bubbles in politics just like there are in markets, and we're going to talk today about how the markets look at bubbles bursting in the political sphere, what they make of them, and whether this spells more trouble to come.
This week we want to take stock of the central banks and the hiking interest rates. Those rates are still way behind the rate of inflation. So what does that all mean for bubbles?
This week, the second of two episodes with Dan McCrum of the Financial Times about his investigative reporting into the massive fraud at the German financial firm Wirecard.
This week we have the first of two episodes with Dan McCrum of the Financial Times about his investigative reporting into the massive fraud at the German financial firm Wirecard.
As we're all back from our holidays this week is just Will and Richard trading postcards, anecdotes, and observations of what they've seen during our time away.
This week we get to the good, the bad and the ugly of "goodwill," how it's supposed to be used and how it can often be abused in bubble trouble. (Repeat)
This time we discuss the most important subject of them all: money. More importantly, someone else's money. We'll get to the basics. Where does money even come from? (Repeat)
We talk about financial analysts and why it's sometimes more accurate to call them sycophants and stenographers, and how these analysts become cheerleaders of the companies they're supposed to cover. They praise as opposed to appraise. (Repeat)
We're back to blowing bubbles, the original source of this inspirational podcast, and we deep dive into the force that's driving markets to record highs. Peak FOMO, fear of missing out. (Repeat)
On this episode, we’re going to keep this deep dive on the metaverse going with another doer, not a thinker--a three-stripe veteran of the gaming industry whose career dates back to Sega in the early 90’s, Survios CEO Seth Gerson.
This week we talk about subscriptions, specifically how the subscription business model in newspapers struggles, while half a billion people are willing to pay subscription fees for music.
This week we're gonna blow the halftime whistle on our travels into the metaverse on Bubble Trouble. Today Will quizes Richard: Is the metaverse the next big thing? Or are we back in bubble trouble? What's the perception and where's the reality. If Richard was at a casino sitting behind Zuckerberg, watching him put all his chips on metaverse, would Richard be leaning over and moving his arm in the same direction--or would he be thinking that this isn't gonna work out well?
This week we continue to deconstruct the metaverse with our brilliant Eric Kress of Gossamer Consulting Group, an independent research boutique that provides investors and industry clients with primary research on console mobile and other related technology companies.
We’re going to keep this deep dive on the Metaverse going with a doer, not a thinker - someone with skin in the game, bacon not eggs! AmazeVR had longer queues at SXSW than any live band and there’s a reason for that: they are the real deal. We have the founder and CEO Ernest Lee.
On this episode, we're in conversation with our third special guest, the source of truth and the mad men and women of advertising, Mr. Mike Follett. The point where quantity goes up and quality goes down, we call that hyper competition, and certainly there's a lot of advertising competing for our time. (Repeat)
This week, and in coming weeks, the Bubble Trouble team will turn our attention to the phase dejour, the bait of all click baits, the mother of all bubbles--the Metaverse. We’re going to begin this deep dive at the beginning and invite Yoshio Osaki, founder of the respected IDG Consulting group.
We're back with more of our conversation with Brooke Masters, the Chief Business Commentator and Associate Editor of the Financial Times. (Repeat.)
This week we salvage what's left of the crypto bubble and delve into the recent dollar devaluations of stable coins with our guest Kenny Estes, founder of Diffuse Digital.
Today we have our first of two episodes featuring Brooke Masters, the Chief Business Commentator and Associate Editor of the Financial Times. (Repeat)
Today we will not be powdering your nose, but be sprinkling our conversation with a little dry powder that's cash or marketable securities that look like it's low risk and highly liquid and convertible to cash, but needs to be put to work.
This week we're going to be jumping the shark. That is we're going to be looking at why tech companies and their success, their growth, their user numbers often resemble a shark fin: how they scale up really fast, then taper off then fall really, really fast in a straight line all the way down. (Repeat)
Today, we're treading deep in some chicken sh*t with Propublica investigative journalist Jesse Eisenger.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
Recently, in the most European city of Brussels, there was mingling with the finest folks in competition law and economics. They were all trying to figure out if, and how, tech should be regulated. Will and Richard discuss.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
Today, we target those analysts notes that tell us what they think the price should be and how much faith we should put in that moving target. We have Aman Verjee who served as a VP of Paypal from 2002 to 2010 and was first to call out the price target fiasco behind Twitter's defense of Elon's hostile takeover.
Today we wrestle with ethics and technology. Stephanie Hare's wonderful new book. Technology Is Not Neutral, gives us a much needed framework for thinking about how the technologies we interact with every day affect our moral lives more.
Every March music, film and tech converge on this blue liberal island of Austin in a red Republican sea of Texas for the South By Southwest conference. This week, we'll get Will Page’s impressions of the bubbles gathering around that island and what tsunami warning horns ought to be blaring when we talk about NFTs.
This week we explore the current craze in the mergers and acquisitions going on just now. And asking, do they actually create additional value? Or is it the case that two plus two does equal two? (Repeat)
We've made quantitative easing easy-ish to understand, now we need to infiltrate the institutions that do that easing: the central banks with the award-winning New York Times journalist and author of the aptly titled best-selling book, Lords of Easy Money, Christopher Leonard.
A lot of financial journalism about companies and markets lives and dies based on access. But what are other ways of finding out what's really going on? Joining us this week is Martin Peers, Senior Writer for The Information.
Today we bring on the sexy topics of fractional reserve lending and quantitative easing with Michael McMahon from the Bank of England and Oxford University.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
Joining us this week is writer Kurt Andersen discussing his books Fantasyland and Evil Geniuses.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
This week we look into rating agencies and ask: Why were they invented? What is their purpose? Who pays their wages? (Repeat)
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
With all the emphasis on hard metrics and financials, it's often easy to overlook the culture of companies and the role it plays in their success (or failure).
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
SPACs Are This Year's Vanilla: Our Conversation with the FT's Brooke Masters Part Two.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
Today we have our first of two episodes featuring Brooke Masters, the Chief Business Commentator and Associate Editor of the Financial Times.
This week we look at the vague way in which various groups have measured the concept of time spent or tried to parcel out the attention economy. How do you really measure attention, and even better, how do you measure the quality of attention or time spent in this attention economy? (Repeat)
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
Today we look back Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos. Was this a unique case of "faking it until you make it" or this what everyone in tech does?
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
Today we're going to take a break from blowing bubbles and instead go smoking…and look at the smoke signals we should, and importantly, shouldn't be looking out for in 2022.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
We're back to blowing bubbles in the housing market with Daryl Fairweather, an acclaimed economist from Redfin, where we ask if the double-digit grow in housing prices indicates another bubble.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
We add a new acronym to our alphabet soup: FOFO--Fear of Finding Out, as we discuss hyper-competition in China with economist George Magnus.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
For the last two episodes of the year, we’re looking back at favorite episodes for both Richard and Will. This week, Will’s favorite: their interview with Andrew Savikas on hyper competition in the book industry.
Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.
For the last two episodes of the year, we’re looking back at favorite episodes for both Richard and Will. This week, Richard’s favorite: The Charade of the Earnings Call.
We're back to blowing bubbles, the original source of this inspirational podcast, and we deep dive into the force that's driving markets to record highs. Peak FOMO, fear of missing out.
This time we look at the themes and dreams that markets put out there to attract the investor's dollar. If it's too good to be true, are we in dreamland? (Repeat)
On this episode, we discuss hyper-competition in the hedge fund world with Seth Wunder.
In this episode, we're in conversation with our fifth special guest, Joe Kessler of UTA IQ, discussing hyper-competition for that scarcest of commodities--talent.
On this episode we discuss continue our series on hyper-competition, this time in the business of the written and spoken word.
On this episode, we're in conversation with our third special guest, the source of truth and the mad men and women of advertising, Mr. Mike Follett. The point where quantity goes up and quality goes down, we call that hyper competition, and certainly there's a lot of advertising competing for our time
This time, we're going to talk about how market trends are all too often too smooth to be true. What might that mean? Well, life isn't as predictable as it might first appear, meaning those unpredictable events may have been planned all along. "Great expectations", as Dickens once wrote, "need to be met with better than expected results" (Repeat)
This week, sucking on subsidies. Government grants, fat contracts, tax credits, state aid, all the cash a company didn't generate on its own. Does it help? Or does it stoke up problems for a future date?
This episode we're back into hyper-competition, speaking with Podnews editor James Cridland. We have some real-time thinking, some real-time podcasting about a problem that we've yet to solve...that problem being, is there too much choice? And to reiterate the mantra of some choice is better than none, but it does not necessarily follow that more choice is better than some.
This week we get to the good, the bad and the ugly of "goodwill," how it's supposed to be used and how it can often be abused in bubble trouble.
This week we kick off a series on episodes on hyper-competition (the point where quantity goes up and quality goes down) with the man who coined the term, Paul Sanders of state51.
This week we unpack the SAC. That's Subscriber Acquisition Costs--getting to the heart of the issue and the core of why we find ourselves reverting back to bubble trouble. What's the customer really worth? And how much did you spend to grab them and keep them?
In this episode we go deep on Robinhood and the gamification of retail investing. Is it a passing fad that rescued us from boredom during lockdown, or, and it's a big question, a new foundation for how markets will work in the future?
This week, to bundle or not to bundle. If we are all now content creators, how are we all supposed to get paid?
We talk about financial analysts and why it's sometimes more accurate to call them sycophants and stenographers, and how these analysts become cheerleaders of the companies they're supposed to cover. They praise as opposed to appraise. (Repeat)
This week we're going to be jumping the shark. That is we're going to be looking at why tech companies and their success, their growth, their user numbers often resemble a shark fin: how they scale up really fast, then taper off then fall really, really fast in a straight line all the way down.
This week we explore the current craze in the mergers and acquisitions going on just now. And asking, do they actually create additional value? Or is it the case that two plus two does equal two?
The UK parliament has dug deep into the economics of music streaming, licensing, and what artists get paid. We'll look at what they discovered and the knock-on effect throughout the rest of the world.
This week we look at the tremendous explosion in cultural production--content creation and hyper competition.
This week: talking your own book. Those analysts outside the company and those executives inside the company, who are long and loud about their views of their own stock. Why so long? Why so loud? Why should we listen to them? And if we do listen to them, are we putting ourselves at risk?
This week we explore the charade of the earnings call--that quarterly bit of theater that often helps stoke bubbles and creates trouble.
This week we look into rating agencies and ask: Why were they invented? What is their purpose? Who pays their wages?
This week we're going to go to SPACs and back, and that's an acronym. It's an acronym that sounds strange, sounds unfamiliar, sounds technical. We'll explain what they are and why they getting so much attention.
This time we discuss the most important subject of them all: money. More importantly, someone else's money. We'll get to the basics. Where does money even come from?
Bubble Trouble is hosted by economist and author Will Page and financial analyst Richard Kramer. It is produced by Magnificent Noise, http://magnificentnoise.com.
More information is available at bubbletroublepodcast.com.
This week we look at the vague way in which various groups have measured the concept of time spent or tried to parcel out the attention economy. How do you really measure attention, and even better, how do you measure the quality of attention or time spent in this attention economy?
Bubble Trouble is hosted by economist and author Will Page and financial analyst Richard Kramer. It is produced by Magnificent Noise, http://magnificentnoise.com.
More information is available at bubbletroublepodcast.com.
This time we look at the themes and dreams that markets put out there to attract the investor's dollar. If it's too good to be true, are we in dreamland?
Bubble Trouble is hosted by economist and author Will Page and financial analyst Richard Kramer. It is produced by Magnificent Noise, http://magnificentnoise.com.
More information is available at bubbletroublepodcast.com.
This time, we're going to talk about how market trends are all too often too smooth to be true. What might that mean? Well, life isn't as predictable as it might first appear, meaning those unpredictable events may have been planned all along. "Great expectations", as Dickens once wrote, "need to be met with better than expected results."
Bubble Trouble is hosted by economist and author Will Page and financial analyst Richard Kramer. It is produced by Magnificent Noise, http://magnificentnoise.com.
More information is available at bubbletroublepodcast.com.
We talk about financial analysts and why it's sometimes more accurate to call them sycophants and stenographers, and how these analysts become cheerleaders of the companies they're supposed to cover. They praise as opposed to appraise.
Bubble Trouble is hosted by economist and author Will Page and financial analyst Richard Kramer. It is produced by Magnificent Noise, http://magnificentnoise.com.
More information is available at bubbletroublepodcast.com.