The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

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A remarkable week in FX markets saw the US Treasury join Japan’s intervention to support the yen – the first co-ordinated US currency intervention in around three decades. Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss why Washington took the unprecedented step, what it signals for US-Japan relations, and why intervention alone is unlikely to solve the yen’s structural challenges.

The discussion also explores China’s changing role in the global economy. After years of exporting deflation, China is now exporting higher prices in key sectors as policymakers encourage manufacturers to move up the value chain.

Highlights:

A historic intervention: The US Treasury joined Japan’s yen intervention for the first time in around 30 years, signalling strong political and strategic support for Japan.
Intervention can only go so far: While coordinated intervention can stabilise markets in the short term, lasting yen strength will require changes in economic fundamentals, particularly Bank of Japan policy.
Japan faces a policy balancing act: The government wants to support growth through fiscal stimulus, but markets are looking for tighter monetary policy and reassurance over Japan’s fiscal outlook.
Rate differentials are no longer the whole story: Although narrowing US-Japan interest rate spreads should support the yen, investors are increasingly focused on fiscal policy and the outlook for Japanese government debt.
China’s export model is evolving: Chinese manufacturers are shifting away from competing on price towards higher-value, higher-margin products, supported by industrial policy.
China may no longer be exporting deflation: Rising export prices suggest China is beginning to export inflation instead, with potentially important consequences for global inflation and central bank policy.
Industrial policy is reshaping global trade: Beijing is using tax policy, currency appreciation and targeted incentives to push manufacturers up the value chain and reduce reliance on low-cost exports.
Replacing China’s low-cost manufacturing won’t be easy: Few economies have the scale or policy tools to replicate China’s manufacturing model, suggesting higher production costs could become a structural feature of the global economy.

Host: Eimear Daly, Emerging Markets Macro Strategist

Guest: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

This episode was recorded on 6 August 2026.

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This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to assess a pivotal week for global central banks and currency markets. They unpack the Bank of England’s policy decision to hold the base rate, analyse the market’s reaction to the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, discuss suspected Japanese FX intervention, and examine China’s latest signals for global growth and trade.

Key takeaways:

The Bank of England’s communication was interpreted as more dovish than its vote suggested.
Sterling remains more sensitive to UK fiscal policy than interest-rate expectations.
Suspected Japanese FX intervention highlights authorities’ concern over yen weakness but does not alter the longer-term fundamentals.
Markets continue to grapple with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s reaction function under Chair Kevin Warsh.
China’s leadership remains focused on gradual, fiscally-led support while prioritising strategic industries over broad consumer stimulus.

Host: Eimear Daly, Emerging Markets Macro Strategist

Guests: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

This episode was recorded on 30 July 2026.

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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a whistle-stop tour of major currencies ahead of a flurry of central bank policy decisions next week.

Key takeaways

Rising oil prices have become the primary driver of FX markets.
Markets increasingly expect further rate hikes across several major economies.
The ECB remains on course for possible tightening if energy prices stay elevated.
The Bank of England’s debate centres on timing rather than direction.
Fiscal credibility will be an increasingly important factor for sterling.
The Federal Reserve is likely to provide little forward guidance despite hawkish market pricing.
Structural reforms, rather than intervention alone, may ultimately determine the yen’s outlook.

Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy
Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 23 July 2026.

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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss yet more sterling outperformance. While UK rates continue to support the currency, the discussion focuses on politics and fiscal credibility as the dominant drivers for sterling over the coming months.

The pair also examine softer-than-expected US inflation data, asking whether this could mark a turning point for Federal Reserve expectations and the US dollar. Finally, they explore developments in Japan, where policymakers are considering ways to encourage domestic investment in government bonds—potentially creating longer-term support for the yen.

Key takeaways:

Political and fiscal developments remain the dominant influence on sterling, with the Autumn Budget likely to become the next major catalyst.
NatWest’s Bank of England outlook remains unchanged despite recent geopolitical developments.
Softer US inflation could represent an important shift in the macro narrative if confirmed by future data releases.
Markets may have become too optimistic on the US dollar after several months of strong economic surprises.
Japan appears to be exploring longer-term structural measures to support its bond market and currency, rather than relying solely on foreign exchange intervention.

Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

Paul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy

This episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.

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Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets.

They discuss:

Why sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, helped by yield support, possible safe-haven flows and renewed UK equity inflows.
How UK politics, fiscal rules and gilt supply could become bigger risks for sterling later in the year.
Why French political risk is worth watching, even if markets are not fully pricing it yet.
How Middle East tensions and oil prices are feeding into dollar positioning and broader risk sentiment.
Why the dollar has stayed resilient despite crowded positioning, stronger US data and shifting Fed expectations.
Why NatWest expects a slower, later dollar decline through the second half of the year.
What the lack of confirmed Japanese FX intervention may reveal about official tolerance for yen weakness.
Why Japan’s fiscal and monetary mix remains a major headwind for the yen.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026.

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This week on Currency Exchange, the team discusses the market implications of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the outlook for the US dollar following a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, the Bank of Japan’s widely anticipated rate hike, and growing concerns about potential Japanese FX intervention.

Key takeaways

The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh was interpreted as hawkish, largely because Warsh declined to counterbalance a more hawkish committee message.
The FOMC dot plot surprised markets, with half of participating members projecting rate hikes in 2026 and several favouring multiple increases.
NatWest no longer expects Fed rate cuts this year, providing near-term support for the US dollar, although markets may still be overpricing tightening risks.
The Bank of Japan’s rate hike to 1.0% was fully anticipated and had little market impact, partly due to Governor Ueda’s absence and limited forward guidance.
Japanese intervention risks remain elevated as USD/JPY stays near multi-decade highs, but Japan’s accommodative fiscal and monetary policy mix continues to argue for underlying yen weakness.

Host: Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist)

Guest: Brian Daingerfield (Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy)

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.

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In this week’s episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson, to discuss the major themes driving foreign exchange markets. The conversation covers the ECB’s latest decision, upcoming meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and the implications for the euro, pound, dollar and yen.

Key topics:

FX markets remain remarkably calm despite an intense period of central bank and geopolitical risk.
The ECB remains cautious and highly dependent on developments in energy markets.
The Bank of England is unlikely to act next week but remains under pressure from persistent inflation concerns.
The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh could mark an important shift in communication strategy.
Dollar strength has been supported by better US data, but expectations may now be running ahead of reality.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, but markets remain focused on whether policymakers are willing to defend the yen more aggressively.

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026.

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This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield step back from the day-to-day market headlines to focus on what global FX clients are thinking about the US dollar, geopolitical risk and the broader macro outlook.

Against a backdrop of rapidly shifting developments in the Middle East, the discussion explores why conviction across FX markets remains unusually low, how investors are positioning across G10 currencies, and what themes are emerging in China and broader emerging markets.

Key themes discussed

FX markets: Low conviction and headline-driven trading

Brian Dangerfield explains why fast-moving geopolitical developments are preventing investors from taking strong directional positions in FX, despite large moves in rates and commodities markets.

Dollar outlook: Fed on hold versus global tightening

How markets increasingly expect the Fed to remain sidelined while other central banks continue tightening policy, potentially weighing on the dollar over time.

G10 FX: Sterling, yen and commodity currencies

Sterling continues to outperform expectations, why intervention risk is dominating yen positioning, and why investors still favour the Australian dollar despite recent volatility.

China and EM: The rise of high-value manufacturing

China’s economic transition toward AI and advanced manufacturing is reshaping profit growth, inflation dynamics and currency policy expectations.

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.

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This week on The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Aditya Sharma explore the geopolitical and macroeconomic developments shaping global FX markets. The discussion focuses on Chinese diplomacy following President Xi Jinping’s meetings with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the implications for China-US relations, and the broader impact of energy market disruptions on Asian currencies.

The episode also examines the prospect of Chinese stimulus, and the growing pressure across emerging Asian FX markets including the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won and Indian rupee.

This episode was recorded on 21 May 2026.

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In this episode, Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss the political and macroeconomic themes currently shaping FX markets, including:

Rising UK political uncertainty and implications for sterling
Why markets may be underestimating UK fiscal risks
Japan’s FX intervention strategy and US reaction
Structural challenges facing the Japanese yen
Key takeaways from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing
The geopolitical implications for currencies and global markets

This episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.

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This week Eimear Daly and Paul Robson explore the reasons behind sterling’s strength against uncertainty both politically in the UK and geopolitically in the Middle East. They also discuss Chinese-US relations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, and the value of the yuan ahead of Donald Trump’s visit there.

Key takeaways:

UK political risk may matter more to sterling later in 2026 than immediately.
The Trump–Xi summit could become a major catalyst for USD direction, and Asian currencies.
Markets are increasingly focused on capital flows, reserve diversification and long-term exposure to US assets.

You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026.

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This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore the FX implications of central bank rate holds in the US, the euro area and the UK. They also discuss Japan, where it appears as though policymaker intervention is boosting the value of the yen as oil prices hit new highs. But can such a move work in the long run?

This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.

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This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore further market developments amid geopolitical tensions around Iran, including central bank policies and wider macroeconomic developments.

Key topics covered:

Impact of Iran-US tensions on FX markets
Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy outlooks
US dollar and yen outlook, alongside market expectations for Fed and Bank of Japan actions

This episode was recorded on 23 April 2026.

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FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations.

With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates what parts of the pre-war playbook – and what’s changed for good.

In Europe, attention turns to capital flows and whether structural pressures on the dollar could finally push EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, in the UK, a sharp repricing of Bank of England expectations is already reversing as policymakers signal patience in the face of an energy shock.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on Fed nominee Warsh: will he accelerate the pivot to rate cuts, or reinforce the market’s wait-and-see stance?

Finally, we take a closer look at how a political shake-up in Hungary sparked a rally in the forint, and raises the prospect of deeper EU integration.

This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026.

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This week, Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss sources of heightened market uncertainty and puzzle over the calm that has beset currency volatility.

Key topics covered:

Market reactions to the Middle East conflict
The US dollar and market positioning
Sterling’s surprising resilience
The Yen and fiscal considerations
Lasting themes for currency markets

This episode was recorded on 26 March 2026.

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This week, Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to talk about the ongoing situation in the Middle East. They explore how threats to energy infrastructure might affect central bank policies, even if interest rates are still on hold in major economies. They also delve into what the crisis means for emerging markets.

This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.

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This week Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by G10 FX Strategy Co-Heads Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson to talk about currency moves during ongoing military action in Iran. Key topics include:

Energy prices and oil market volatility
Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy
Emerging markets' response to geopolitical risks
Sterling’s performance and UK monetary policy
The Bank of Japan's stance on inflation and energy costs

This episode was recorded on 12 March 2026.

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This week’s combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy).

They discussed:

Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players.
Political pressure on President Trump to conclude this initial phase swiftly.
Expected continuation of heightened military activity over the next few days.
Monitoring Iranian missile, drone, and maritime operations, including possible threats to the Strait of Hormuz.
Indicators for de-escalation: signs of pragmatic politics or regional diplomatic intervention.
Importance of maritime security in global energy markets.
Currency markets responding as expected: dollar strength sterling resilience in cross-currency pairs.
Volatility in bond markets reflecting both safe-haven demand and concerns over defence spending and future inflation.
Key market drivers to watch.

This episode was recorded on 3 March 2026.

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In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy.

This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026.

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In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss market sentiment for major currencies. Firstly, they dissect UK economic data and the implications for sterling, plus the Bank of England policy and receding political risk. They also cover Fed policy, wider geopolitical influences on FX markets, the price of oil and implications for Japanese yen.

This episode was recorded on 19 February 2026.

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In this episode, Eimear Daly and emerging market specialist Aditya Sharma discuss the recent India-US trade deal and its implications for Indian assets and the rupee. They also delve into the upcoming Hungarian elections, analyzing the potential outcomes and their impact on markets.

You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. 

This episode was recorded on 12 February 2026.

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This week, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield dig into the major themes affecting currency markets.

They begin by examining the Bank of England’s ‘dovish hold’ on 5 February – and the drivers behind a recent uptick in volatility in UK assets more generally of late.

Then they turn to the US, where they discuss the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell when his leadership term at the Fed ends in May – and the potential impact on monetary policy and Fed independence.

Finally, they take a closer look at the ECB’s latest rates hold, Japan’s lower house elections, and the impact on global FX dynamics.

You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. 

This episode was recorded on 5 February 2026.

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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss some major themes affecting currency markets. They begin by examining how the US dollar has responded to geopolitical developments and provide an update on the Federal Reserve. They also discuss volatility as it relates to Japan’s currency, and stability as it relates to sterling and recent UK data. Finally, they touch on emerging trends in European and Scandinavian currencies, and examine the nuances between currencies and their traditional market drivers.

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This episode was recorded on 22 January 2026.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson delve into the current state of foreign exchange markets. They discuss the recent strength of the pound against the euro, the implications of upcoming UK economic data, and the overall low volatility in FX markets despite significant geopolitical events. They also focus on the Federal Reserve's influence on the dollar, and how political events in Japan are affecting the yen.

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This episode was recorded on 15 January 2026.

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In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson return to discuss the state of foreign exchange markets as we enter 2026. They analyse the recent performance of the British pound, the euro's stability, and the implications of geopolitical events on the dollar. The conversation also touches on New Year's resolutions for FX watchers, Paul's intake of Stilton cheese and potential future drivers for the dollar.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.

To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead

This episode was recorded on 8 January 2026.

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In this lookahead to 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss key themes shaping the year ahead.

They start with the dollar, where 2026 is expected to be dominated by the Fed’s interest rate policy. Should we expect a policy error if rates are kept low under new Fed leadership and continued fiscal expansion? And what, crucially, does this mean for the dollar's exceptional status in foreign reserves?

They also discuss how FX markets have become desensitised to geopolitical drama, only reacting when real economic effects are visible. And in emerging markets, lower volatility and a weaker dollar appear to create a favourable backdrop for high-carry currencies.

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To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead

This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.

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On the back of the Fed’s widely-predicted decision to cut rates this week, Eimear Daly speaks to Brian Daingerfield about changes to the monetary guidance, and how this feeds indecision about a further cut in December. Elsewhere they talk about Japan’s currency, and the structural versus cyclical nature of monetary policy in Canada.

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This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on UK inflation data, the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook, the upcoming UK budget, and the performance of sterling. They also touch on the European Central Bank's position, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, the Bank of Japan's policy considerations, and the Canadian economy's inflation data. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global economic indicators and their impact on currency markets.

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This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the UK budget, European currency outlook, US trade tensions, the impact of the government shutdown, and Japanese politics. Phew! They also explore how fiscal and monetary policies are influencing currency movements globally.

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This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent LDP leadership election in Japan, its impact on the yen, and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy. They also explore the potential coalition dynamics and the Bank of Japan's decision-making process amid political uncertainty.

This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.

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This week host Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss the major themes affecting currency markets. They focus on the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision and the Bank of England's interest rate hold. They analyse the implications of these decisions on the dollar and sterling, the impact of economic data on market expectations, and the significance of dollar hedging of international assets and interest rate differentials.

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This episode was recorded on 18 September 2025.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the current state of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts. They highlight the implications of recent labour market data and inflation readings, as well as the legal back-and-forth surrounding President Trump’s tariff moves.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 11 September 2025.

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The Currency Exchange returns from the summer break, with host Eimear Daly and guest Paul Robson discussing recent dynamics in currency markets. They focus on the sensitivity of sterling to fiscal developments, the outlook for the UK economy, and the implications of political risks in France on the euro. They also analyse Poland's recent interest rate decisions and the potential for its currency to track emerging market peers.

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This episode was recorded on 4 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated.

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Listen to host Brian Daingerfield and guest Ian Vanderhorn discuss recent developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the strengthening of the dollar due to trade deals, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the contrasting approaches of central banks like the Bank of Canada. They also analyse the implications of the quarterly refunding announcement by the Treasury and its impact on interest rate dynamics.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 31 July 2025.

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In this episode, host Eimear Daly is joined by Brain Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss the significant impact of Japan's upper house elections on FX markets, the implications for fiscal policy, and the potential for changes in leadership. They also explore the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, the European Central Bank's recent hold, and the outlook for the Bank of England and sterling. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global monetary policies and their effects on currency markets.

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This episode was recorded on 24 July 2025.

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Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson dig into the latest US and UK data prints and discuss how labour and inflation trends are affecting their views on the GBP and USD outlook.

They look ahead to what we might expect from the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting – and the potential impact on the outlook for EURUSD. And they consider the impact of recent shifts in US trade policy on markets more broadly, and the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell’s fate.

NB. This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025.

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This week, Eimear Daly and Kevin Cummins discuss the latest US labor market report, which revealed a surprising increase in job growth. They analyse the implications of the report for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly in light of inflation concerns and market reactions. The conversation also touches on the performance of the government sector and the outlook for emerging market currencies.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 3 July 2025.

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In this episode, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson discuss the recent developments in the Middle East and their impact on foreign exchange markets, particularly the dollar's safe haven status. They delve into the Federal Reserve's differing views on interest rates and the implications for the dollar, and cover the performance of sterling amid global economic changes and the fiscal risks facing both the UK and US.

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This episode was recorded on 26 June 2025

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This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson in a Bondcast/Currency Exchange crossover to talk about interest rate holds in the UK and US. Were there any clues about the nature of future decisions? Away from the central banks, they also discuss the impact of military tensions on market sentiment.

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This episode was recorded on 19 June 2025.

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This week, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss recent UK economic data, its implications for the Bank of England, and the outlook for sterling. They delve into the labour market's performance and the significance of upcoming interest rate decisions. They also talk about the potential impact of political risks in emerging markets, particularly in Europe.

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This episode was recorded on 12 June 2025.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of foreign exchange markets, focusing on the influence of the US dollar, recent decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB), and the fortunes of sterling. They also analyse economic data, tariff impacts, and the outlook for central bank policies.

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This episode was recorded on 5 June 2025.

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This week Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson discuss the current state of global markets, focusing on US trade re-escalation and de-escalation – and the impact on global FX markets.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 29 May 2025.

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In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daley discuss the current state of the dollar, emerging markets, and the implications of recent US trade policies. They analyse the impact of the recent tax bill in the US and the political landscape in Poland following its recent elections.

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This episode was recorded on 22 May 2025.

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This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of global markets, focusing on unexpected strength in the UK economy and the impact of recent US trade de-escalation on the dollar. But what challenges lie ahead for growth and monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic?

This episode was recorded on 15 May 2025.

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This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the Bank of England's recent decisions, the implications of the UK-US trade agreement, and the Fed's cautious stance. They analyse how these factors impact the value of sterling and the dollar, as well as the broader economic landscape.

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This episode was recorded on 8 May 2025.

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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent Canadian election results, which saw former central banker Mark Carney elected as prime minister. They analyse the continuity of the new coalition government, the challenges posed by trade arrangements, and the performance of the Canadian dollar amid the current economic backdrop. The conversation also turns to the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan and its impact on the yen.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 1 May 2025.

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In this episode Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of foreign exchange markets, focusing on the volatility of the US dollar, the dynamics of European currencies, and the implications of FX reserve diversification. They analyse the impact of US economic policy on currency strength, the outlook for the euro and sterling, and the potential shifts in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

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This episode was recorded on 24 April 2025.

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In this crossover episode of Bondcast and Currency Exchange, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier to discuss all things tariffs, and the political situation in France. It's not just markets that are surrounded by uncertainty. How the Fed will dictate interest rates now seems less clear than it did just a few weeks ago, owing to likely higher inflation alongside weaker growth expectations. In France meanwhile, will Marine Le Pen's criminal conviction lead to a crisis?

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This episode was recorded on 3 April 2025.

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In this episode, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss recent US auto tariff announcements and their muted market reaction and the implications of the UK Spring Statement on fiscal policy. Against this backdrop and inflation data, how will the Bank of England set monetary policy? And what to make of the outlook for sterling?

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This episode was recorded on 27 March 2025.

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In this episode, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on updated economic projections and the implications for interest rates. They also explore the distinction between soft and hard data in the US economy and how this affects the Fed's wait-and-see approach to decision-making. The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate decision and the potential impact of upcoming US tariffs on global economies and currency markets – and the ways this is measured.

You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 20 March 2025.

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In this episode Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics of the foreign exchange markets, focusing on the influence of US politics on euro-dollar rates. They explore the drivers behind the recent movements in currency values, the outlook for the Euro and Swedish krona, and the position of sterling amidst changing global policies. The conversation highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary policies in shaping currency trends and the potential implications for investors.

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This episode was recorded on 13 March 2025.

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In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Giovanni Zanni discuss significant developments in European defence spending and the implications for the economy and financial markets. They also analyse the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates on Thursday, and explore what's next for the Euro and the US dollar.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 6 March 2025.

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In this week's episode, we dive into the fast-moving world of currency markets with a special focus on the latest developments in US trade policy. Host Eimear Daly is joined by US FX and rates strategist, Ian Vanderhorn, to break down the potential impact of Trump's shifting tariff policies, the implications for the Canadian dollar, and the broader global economic landscape.

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This episode was recorded on 27 February 2025

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In this episode, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss the significant implications of the Trump presidency on European security. They explore the potential shifts in defence spending, and what it may mean for the EUR and regional European currencies, as well as the consequences for regional government bond markets. They also delve into what this week's key UK data may mean for Bank of England policy rates and sterling, and take stock of US tariff-related headlines.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 20 February 2025.

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In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the Bank of England's monetary policy stance, recent UK economic data, US tariff risks, and the broader political landscape in Europe.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 13 February 2025.

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In a week when the Monetary Policy Committee's arch hawk Catherine Mann turned most dovish, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson find themselves with much to analyse. Aside from the Bank of England's decision to cut rates, they also cover Trumpian tariffs, the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 6 February 2025

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In this episode, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for the currency markets, and the potential impact of tariff threats under the Trump administration. They also explore the political risks in emerging markets, particularly focusing on the upcoming presidential election in Poland and its potential effects on the Polish złoty.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 30 January 2025

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Donald Trump made a running start to his second presidency by signing a record-breaking number of executive orders. This week Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daly debrief on what Trumponomics 2.0 means for the dollar and emerging market currencies.
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NB. This episode was recorded on 23 January 2025

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Will markets applaud Donald Trump’s second act as president? The Fed has been handed some welcome news on both inflation and labour - accompanied by some dollar highs and hopes for rate cuts. As Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss, however, markets remain skittish about Trump’s potential trade policies. So what next for the currency?

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NB. This episode was recorded on 16 January 2025

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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Ian Vanderhorn to cover discordant sounds emanating from FX markets. They start with Sterling’s grapple with stagflation fears, moving on to the strength of the dollar against emerging market currencies and CAD performance following political upset in Canada. None of which is a reason to do Dry January.

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NB. This episode was recorded on 9 December 2025

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This week host Tokunbo Lawal is joined by Ian Vanderhorn and Kevin Cummins to discuss the fortunes of the both the US and Canadian dollars. In the US, recent data suggests that the currency may have to contend with a Fed cutting rate that is slower than had been anticipated. While in Canada, the central bank's stance is that because interest rates are still in restrictive policy, there is some headroom to ease the effects of potential tariff increases under Trump. But what will all of this mean for both currencies?

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NB. This episode was recorded on 12 December 2024

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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Giovanni Zanni to dissect the French political crisis, following Prime Minister Michel Barnier's departure. They ask what has happened, and why, plus what next for the country and Europe more widely – and how markets have bought the rumour, and sold the fact.

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This episode was recorded on 5 December 2024.
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In this special edition of The Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson for a closer look at sterling and the US dollar as we head into 2025.

Where 2024 was characterised by political change, markets will examine the follow-on in 2025 – what higher fiscal commitments may do to inflation targets, bank rates and, ultimately, the relative performance of currencies. In the US, that means contending with Trump 2.0, while in the UK unprecedented fiscal commitments may help sterling’s current strength. Lastly they touch on how China-related risks might affect the fortunes of the Australian and NZ dollars, and whether the Canadian currency may diverge from the US dollar.

Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2025.

NB: This was recorded on 21 November 2024.

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This week it’s a podcast crossover, as Imogen Bachra and Brian Daingerfield deliver a Bondcast-meets-Currency Exchange special. High on the agenda is what the magnitude of Donald Trump’s election victory means for currencies and policy rate decisions, both in the near and long-term, as the US faces tax cuts and importers look set for tariffs. Away from the polls, both the Fed and the Bank of England cut rates this week by 25 basis points. To what extent were they both doing so with revised outlooks for future inflation? Listen in to find out.

This episode was recorded on 8 November 2024

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This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss what uncertainty in both the UK and US means for FX, ahead of some key dates. Looking to the UK Budget, it appears as though borrowing needs will require accommodative monetary policy, potentially affecting Sterling. The US presidential election also looms and can developments in betting markets be trusted?

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NB: This was recorded on 24 October 2024.
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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss moves in emerging market currencies. They ask how the macro environment is affecting matters, analyse why some currencies have underperformed and find that many market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach. They also look at how the outcome of the US elections may affect Poland, especially in relation to the war in Ukraine.

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NB: This was recorded on 17 October 2024.
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With less than 25 days to go until the US presidential elections, Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss how the outcome may affect the fortunes of the dollar, as well as the US economy. Given the continuity of Democratic policy courtesy of the incumbent, it looks like markets are pricing in, and pricing out, a Trump victory. But does this extend to potential Republican control of the White House, the Senate and the House?

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NB: This was recorded on 10 October 2024.
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Amid the concerning escalation of attacks and reprisals in the Middle East, Paul Robson is joined by special guest and International Advisor Scott Livingstone to talk about geopolitics in the region and beyond. They discuss the speed at which tensions are rising, the escalation with Iran and how markets may be affected. Beyond the Middle East, they discuss how the US presidential race may affect international relations and China's approach to foreign policy.

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NB: This was recorded on 3 October 2024.
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This week markets on both sides of the Atlantic were subject to diverging decisions towards monetary policy. Join Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson as they analyse the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in the US, and the Bank of England's decision to keep things unchanged for the UK. In the longer run, might this difference lead to some relative strength for sterling?

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NB: This was recorded on 19 September 2024.
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...such is Paul Robson's assessment of the UK economy and the prospects for sterling. This week he and Brian Daingerfield also discuss rate cutting developments with the euro and latest news in the US presidential election race.

NB: This was recorded on 12 September 2024.

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Returning from the August break, the Currency Exchange team ask how the US election race is affecting markets. This week Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss the early days of Kamala Harris’ bid for White House glory, and whether she can continue the political momentum in three swing states. They also examine (lament, even) the prospects for US jobs data, the extent to which a Trump victory or loss is being priced into USD rates and, long-term, what the election outcome means for peace and stability in Eastern Europe.

NB: This was recorded on 5 September 2024.

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The Bank of England cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points this week while the Fed opted for a hold, so what does all of this mean for the outlook for GBP and USD in the months ahead? Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a closer look, and they also discuss the impact of the Bank of Japan’s decision to go in the other direction and hike rates for just the second time in 17 years.

We’ll be taking a break from the podcast the rest of August, but we’ll see you all again in September.

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NB: This was recorded on 1 August 2024.
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…so just another week in FX markets. Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race added more drama to the US political narrative, but what does the handover to Kamala Harris mean for markets? This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson to discuss currency markets in the US and the UK, where uncertainty shrouds the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates next week.

This episode was recorded on 25 July 2024.

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This week, Alvaro Vivanco and Eimear Daly dig deeper into some of the big drivers for FX in the Americas with a particular focus on Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

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NB: This was recorded on 18 July 2024.

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This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Kevin Cummins to talk about recent, encouraging data on US inflation. But one print can’t rule them all: the Fed needs to weigh unemployment and services inflation data too, among other signals, when deciding whether, when and by how much to cut. Despite the Fed being in full data dependence mode, the room to interpret information differently means there’s no certain path for policy.

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This episode was recorded on 11 July 2024.

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In a period of potential (ok, likely) political change in the UK and France, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson ask how currency markets account for risks around election time. Whereas a Labour victory appears priced into the level of sterling, can the same be said of France's effects on the euro? In the US, of course, all eyes are on the upcoming Presidential election, and what sentiment over Donald Trump and Joe Biden's fitness for office may mean for the dollar.

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This episode was recorded on 3 July 2024.

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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss currencies in emerging markets. They cover developments across Latin America, and share their views on what’s driving valuations of the South African rand.

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This episode was recorded on 27 June 2024.

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With inflation approaching its target, what were the prospects that the Bank of England would cut its base rate? Not much, according to Imogen Bachra and Joann Spadigam, who this week look at both the reasons for a hold, and whether the Monetary Policy Committee is becoming just a bit more dovish. Hint: it is. Away from the UK, they cover elections in France and Germany’s Q3 funding update.

This episode was recorded on 20 June '24.
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After a week of further election announcements, an element of political risk has returned to FX markets. In this episode, Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss how the backdrop is affecting the fortunes of major currencies, amid encouraging inflation news in the US.

This episode was recorded on 13 June '24.

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2024 is a year of elections, and in recent weeks there have been some deep shifts in the politics of emerging market economies. In this episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Eimear Daly, Alvaro Vivanco and Aditya Sharma to discuss the FX impacts of elections in India, South Africa and Mexico.

This episode was recorded on 6 June 2024.

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This week Eimear Daly and guest Alvaro Vivanco discuss the fortunes of emerging market currencies. They look ahead to the election in South Africa, and how this may affect the rand, plus they discuss the situation in Europe, including the Hungarian forint.

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This episode was recorded on 28 May 2024.

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In this US dollar special, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Kevin Cummins to discuss the latest data affecting the dollar. Recent inflation news was softer than had been feared by some, but were other economic prints a step in the right direction? And how many more signs of a soft landing might the Fed need in order to cut rates?

Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can watch or listen to the latest episode of Currency Exchange as soon as they’re available. This episode was recorded on 16 May 2024.

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Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the longer-term prospects for GBP following the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates on hold this week. They also delve into our latest views on FX heading into a critical US inflation print. Finally, they share their views on the outlook for SEK in light of the Riksbank's decision to cut rates, and consider the relationship between US rates and volatility as a driver of JPY.

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NB: This was recorded on 9 May 2024.
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Join host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson as they focus on the fortunes of major currencies. For sterling the dominant market factor appears to be yield ahead of likely rate cuts, while the Fed's base case is for cuts later in the year – amid some talk even of hikes. They also discuss Norway and Sweden, and give a quick update on Japan.

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This episode was recorded on 2 May 2024.
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After a week of historical lows for the yen, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield speculate on whether the Bank of Japan has recently intervened to defend the currency. FX markets seem to think so, but what other signals are markets reading?

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This episode was recorded on 29 April 2024.

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Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the impact of rising Israel/Iran tensions on FX markets, touching on potential for further escalation, the prospect of reduced oil supplies, and drivers of oil supply and demand outside of geopolitics.

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NB: This was recorded on 18 April 2024.
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This week host Imogen Bachra is joined by Joann Spadigam and Deepika Dayal to pick over recent developments in bond markets. Much of the focus this week was on developments in the US, where higher than expected inflation is thwarting the Fed’s scope to cute rate this summer (we’ve revised our forecasts). Quite what this means for policies in Europe and the UK is uncertain, but divergence is the watchword.

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N.B This was recorded on 11 April 2024. For any terms used please refer to our glossary
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This week host Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss emerging markets (EM) and developments in eastern Europe. In EM, much of FX hinges on developments at the Fed with the US dollar. They discuss how China is setting the tone in balancing inflation with economic growth, and examine the idiosyncrasies of Polish policies.

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NB: This was recorded on 4 April 2024.
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This week's host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Paul Robson to focus on G10 currencies. In the UK, sterling weakened slightly thanks to dovish tones from the Bank of England while in the US, a bumpy road back to 2% inflation means market uncertainty over the dollar. Elsewhere, the Swiss National Bank became the first G10 central bank to cut rates, and may have to handle imported inflation and a weaker franc. Meanwhile, Japan's increase in rates may not be the beginning of a grand hiking cycle, and a weakened yen suggests markets agree. Lastly, they discuss Norway and Swedish currencies, where it's krona vs krone.

Currency Exchange is away for Good Friday but will return on 5 April.

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NB: This was recorded on 21 March 2024.
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In our latest episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Chief US Economist Kevin Cummins to discuss this week’s US inflation readings and their implications on the Fed and the dollar. They go in depth on the Fed’s “dot plot” release and think the market is priced for a hawkish adjustment - but it’s a close call if the medians move up or stay put. They also touch on the Bank of Japan decision next week and its impact on the yen. Encouraging wage inflation data may mark the end of negative policy rates in Japan.

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NB: This was recorded on 14 March 2024.
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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss how an improved outlook for US inflation after next week’s Consumer Price Index print argues for tactical short dollar exposure. They lay out why the euro failed to sustain losses on a dovish central bank forecast revision and argue the yen may strengthen on pre-Bank of Japan short covering. They also consider the lack of sterling reaction to the UK budget, and how the changing of the guard in Swiss FX policy may be a game changer for the franc.

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NB: This was recorded on 7 March 2024.
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This week Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss what effect - if any - recent personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data has had on the fortunes of the US dollar. Looking ahead to an information heavy five days next week, they also discuss how the political situation ahead of the presidential election may affect the dollar later in the year.

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NB: This was recorded on 29 February 2024.
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This week Brian Daingerfield is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to focus on the US, Mexico and Canada. A lack of data from the US has meant a quieter week for the dollar, but ahead of core personal consumption deflator data, can the market expect more positive signs for the US economy? In Mexico, the prospect of early bank rate cuts suggests the peso may no longer be the star of emerging market currencies, while local and US political change may pose additional currency risk. Meanwhile in Canada, short-term aggregates of inflation data seem to dictate when rates will start to fall.

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NB: This was recorded on 22 February 2024.
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Inflation, labour markets, economic growth – how should FX markets balance it all? This week, Brian Daingerfield, Paul Robson, and Eimear Daly take stock after a bumper data week in the US and the UK and discuss the impact on the outlook for the US dollar and sterling.

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NB: This was recorded on 15 February 2024.
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This week, Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daly focus on FX in Eastern Europe, and discuss how varied central bank approaches affect currencies in different ways. In Hungary, political confrontation with the EU over aid to Ukraine eventually dissipated, but other risks raise problems about the forint. In Poland, a new government face challenges in unwinding eight years of nationalist, populist rule, and despite falling inflation, rates look likely to be on hold for the rest of the year. Lastly in the Czech Republic, a 50-base point rate cut surprise saw a big decline in the koruna.

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NB: This was recorded on 8 February 2024.
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In this week’s episode, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss how the Bank of England and Fed each pushed back against market easing expectations, to differing degrees. They comment on why the outlook for sterling may still be to the topside and why the Fed leaned dovish, despite Powell saying a March cut is not likely. Elsewhere, they talk about how recent inflation data in Europe keep the euro in a challenging spot. Finally, they focus on Sweden where the Riksbank suggested earlier cuts may be appropriate. But the impact of earlier easing on the SEK may not mean that lower rates equals lower FX.

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In this week’s episode, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss major central bank decisions over the prior and coming week. They opine on the European Central Bank's dovish press conference and discuss why the UK’s Bank of England may take a more hawkish tone. They aren’t expecting the Fed to make material changes next week, meaning all eyes are on the data after another upside surprise in US GDP growth this week.

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NB: This was recorded on 26 January 2024.
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Join host Brian Daingerfield and guest Galvin Chia as they examine the politics, policy and fundamentals of some of Asia's major economies. They discuss how the result of the Taiwan election does and does not change the backdrop for cross-strait tensions, underwhelming economic data in China and potential reactive stimulus, and how a strong backdrop for Indian growth and asset performance translates to the Indian rupee.

Remember to hit ‘subscribe’ or ‘follow’ so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.

NB: This was recorded on 18 January 2024.
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Join Eimear Daly and Paul Robson as they discuss world FX prospects in a year that's sure to be dominated by news from the US. With the latest US inflation figures ever-so-slightly stronger than expected, little has changed for Fed policy. Meanwhile at the European Central Bank, the doves are growing in number, as inflation data has weakened the hawks' position. Does a likely early cut in rates and poor economic data mean the euro will underperform? In the UK, the nature of inflation bears more consideration than the headline rate, whereas in Poland the focus is on keeping borrowing rates steady - and confidence high.

Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.

NB: This was recorded on 3 January 2024.
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Join Brian Daingerfield and Alvaro Vivanco as they discuss FX market moves in recent weeks. In the US, December's sell-offs of the dollar have partially reversed in January, leaving them wondering if seasonal and liquidity factors led the USD to weaken too far too fast heading into the end of 2023. And in emerging markets (EM), they discuss why December was a somewhat disappointing one for EM currencies, given the performance of other cyclically-linked asset classes. Finally, the two touch on drivers of the yen, which has been the worst performer in G10 in the early days of 2024.

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NB: This was recorded on 4 January 2024. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html Please note that captions are automatically generated.

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Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss developments in emerging markets (EM) FX and assess what has changed since we published our Year Ahead 2024 report. Much is at stake as US yields have compressed, but EM central banks continue to cut policy rates. They discuss what we are hearing from clients, including questions on elections next year.

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NB: This was recorded on 7 December 2023.
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Eimear Daly is joined by guests Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss some of the recent developments in FX markets. Front of mind are the fortunes of the dollar after weaker than expected US economic data. But diverging monetary policy outlooks in Europe also demand attention as central banks try to conquer Table Mountain.

Remember to hit ‘follow’ so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.

NB: This was recorded on 30 November 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease note that captions are automatically generated.

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With economic growth likely to slow and inflation likely to ease, global interest rate hiking is set to give way to cutting in 2024. But the speed and scope of that transition is set to differ across economies, creating challenges and opportunities in FX. Brian Daingerfield, Paul Robson, and Alvaro Vivanco discuss the outlook for G10 and emerging markets FX and break down some of the key themes affecting major currencies in the year ahead.

Remember to hit follow so you can listen to the latest episode in this series as soon as they're available and navigate to natwest.com/yearahead to get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy in 2024.

NB: This was recorded on 13 November 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease note that captions are automatically generated.

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In the second episode dedicated to the US dollar, host Eimear Daly is again joined by Brian Daingerfield to examine recent events at the Fed and other influences over the currency. What should we make of the dollar's weakening and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks? Elsewhere, they discuss the Japanese yen and how its value is being affected by recent policy announcements.

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NB: This was recorded on 2 November 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.htmlPlease note that captions are automatically generated.

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In this episode, host Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield to discuss the fortunes of the US dollar. With solid GDP, consumption and purchase managers' data relative to much of the rest of the world, the strong dollar looks set to remain supported. They preview the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC) decision, upcoming economic data, and also Treasury’s refunding announcement. Elsewhere, they discuss the Japanese Yen amid market speculation of another policy change next week.

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NB: This was recorded on 26 October 2023.

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Galvin Chia take a closer look at China's economic outlook. They reflect on the shifting role of monetary and fiscal policy in cushioning the economy and soothing markets, and discuss the potential impact on FX going forward.

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NB: This was recorded on 19 October 2023.
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In this episode, Brian Daingerfield is joined by Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco to discuss what clients have been telling them in the past week. They focus on currency rates in emerging markets and analyse the market implications of the conflict in Israel.
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NB: This was recorded on 12 October 2023.
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A 2% drop in the value of the Japanese yen against the US dollar on Tuesday suggests the Bank of Japan may have intervened when it recovered. In this episode, Brian Daingerfield joins Eimear Daly to discuss the outlook for yen, looking at its fundamentals, assessing the effectiveness of intervention and commenting on whether this may be affected by higher US Treasury yields.

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NB: This was recorded on 05 October 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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Emerging markets (EMs) have been underperforming in recent months - a big shift from the EM rally around the turn of the year. Eimear Daly is joined by Alvaro Vivanco to discuss the impact of central bank rate cuts, falling carry and whether inflation can still move lower. However, the short-term outlook may not detract from some positive long-term sentiments.

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NB: This was recorded on 28 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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As expected this week the Fed held rates, as did the Bank of England. Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Deepika Dayal to discuss the impact on foreign exchange markets of divergent central bank strategies. The US dollar is holding its strength courtesy of a hawkish hold, but the same can't be said for Sterling. In contrast, emerging markets central banks are cutting rates, triggering EM FX weakness. And in Europe the Swiss franc looks like it may weaken.

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NB: This was recorded on 21 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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This week the European Central Bank implemented a dovish hike. Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson to discuss how foreign exchange markets are looking forward to the start of easing cycles by major central banks. They also look at how this affects currencies in developing countries and whether Nordic central banks are near their rate peaks.

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NB: This was recorded on 14 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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After a break of three weeks, The Currency Exchange returns. Host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson to discuss weaknesses in the euro economic area and China, plus the relative strength of US data. Elsewhere, support provided to Sterling may suffer longer-term challenges in the UK. A quiet August? No chance.

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NB: This was recorded on 7 September 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Deepika Dayal debrief after the Fed’s latest rate hike and discuss some of the key factors influencing how the central bank thinks about future hikes as we move towards the September meeting. What does all of this mean for the US dollar outlook? Tune in to find out.

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NB: This was recorded on 27 July 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson take a closer look at the impact of the latest inflation data on the outlook for Sterling and the wider FX landscape.

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NB: This was recorded on 20 July 2023.

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss some of the latest jobs and inflation data out of the US and take a closer look at the impact on the US dollar outlook in the months ahead.

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NB: This was recorded on 13 July 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the latest data prints in the US and take a closer look at some of the factors driving the US dollar outlook in the months ahead.

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NB: This was recorded on 6 July 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco discuss the enduring strength of emerging markets, and the exception to this trend - South Africa. They take a closer look at the fundamental economic strengths in these countries, and the effects on FX carry.

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NB: This was recorded on 29 June 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss the impact of a larger-than-expected UK Bank Rate hike on the Sterling outlook going forward. They take a closer look at how companies and investors should balance higher absolute yields and risks to the economic growth outlook.

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NB: This was recorded on 22 June 2023. For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Chief US Economist Kevin Cummins talk through why they expect the Fed to pause rate hikes in June and discuss potential implications for the USD outlook. They also share their perspectives on inflation ahead of next week's critical CPI print.

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NB: This was recorded on 8 June 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Galvin Chia take a closer look at some of the key drivers behind the CNY’s recent weakness. They also discuss the economic and policy outlook and potential implications for FX markets from here. Galvin also notes how a strengthening outlook for the INR acts as a counterpoint to weakening CNY.

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NB: This was recorded on 1 June 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episodes of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco take a closer look at the turn in the USD and discuss its impact on emerging market FX outlook.

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NB: This was recorded on 25 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield dig into the latest US debt ceiling drama, the potential paths towards resolution, and key implications for the US dollar – both near and long term.

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NB: This was recorded on 18 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson debrief after a Bank of England rate hike that arrived largely as expected. They take a closer look at what the Bank’s guidance might mean for the path of interest rates and FX markets from here.

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NB: This was recorded on 11 May 2023.
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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson delve into some of the key drivers for Sterling performance as we head into the Bank of England meeting next week, and take stock of how this month’s Fed and European Central Bank influence our views on the USD and EUR.

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NB: This was recorded on 4 May 2023.
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n the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield take stock ahead of key central bank meetings in the US and Europe next week and discuss the key factors driving the outlook for the euro and US dollar.

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NB: This was recorded on 27 April 2023.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco take a closer look at how fiscal sustainability could drive currency moves globally and discuss the potential implications of a surprise monetary policy announcement from Hungary’s central bank.

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NB: This was recorded on 20 April 2023.
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In the latest episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Alvaro Vivanco discuss the impact of this week’s US inflation print on the US dollar outlook and potential implications for the emerging market FX landscape.

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NB: This was recorded on 13 April 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the US dollar outlook as concerns over banking sector strains recede, and take a closer look at monetary policy divergence in the Antipodes.

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NB: This was recorded on 5 April 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco take a closer look at how emerging market (EM) FX fared amidst banking sector volatility and discuss the path forward for EM monetary policymakers as they look to address looming market and inflation risks.

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NB: This was recorded on 30 March 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson debrief after a busy week of central bank meetings in the US and Europe and discuss key drivers for the USD from here.

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NB: This was recorded on 23 March 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson debrief after a volatile week in financial markets. They discuss how markets may start to balance financial stability considerations against inflation-tackling action from central banks, and reflect on potential implications for the FX landscape.

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NB: This was recorded on 16 March 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson discuss their perspectives on how long a stronger EUR and USD will last and what that means for the wider FX universe.

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NB: This was recorded on 9 March 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Galvin Chia take a very close look at all the factors driving CNY performance over the near and medium term.

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NB: This was recorded on 2 March 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Co-head of G10 FX strategy Brian Daingerfield dig into the continued strength of the USD and whether the data is really telling the full story.

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NB: This was recorded on 16 February 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson dig into the impact of fresh UK economic data prints on the outlook for Sterling and UK assets more broadly.

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NB: This was recorded on 16 February 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Alvaro Vivanco share their perspectives on whether the strength of the US labour market, the potential for higher US policy rates and a stronger US dollar could upend the new year EM FX rally (before it even got going).

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NB: This was recorded on 9 February 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Kevin Cummins take a closer look at this week's trio of interest rate hikes in the US, UK, and Europe, and discuss the impact of those decisions on the wider FX landscape and market expectations going forward.

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NB: This was recorded on 2 February 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss where we think key currencies will move after a trio of central bank meetings in the week ahead.

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NB: This was recorded on 26 January 2023.
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In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield take a closer at the Bank of Japan's recent push-back against market expectations for policy change, key factors to watch regarding the sustainability of yield curve control, and what all of this means for the USDJPY rate and FX markets in the weeks ahead.

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NB: This was recorded on 19 January 2023.
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Welcome to The Currency Exchange podcast! Each week, the NatWest Markets team of FX strategists help you get to grips with the biggest themes and events moving global currency markets.

In this inaugural episode of The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson digest the impact of the latest US inflation print on the USD and EUR outlook, and take a closer look at how the China reopening story could affect global FX markets in the months ahead.

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NB: This was recorded on 12 January 2023.

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The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest: Recent Episodes

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