Moving Markets: Daily News: Recent Episodes
Julius Baer
Moving Markets is a daily market news briefing from Julius Baer. Our experts discuss the latest market developments and put the headlines in perspective to set you up for the coming day. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
Tech stocks are under pressure after Oracle missed on earnings and gave a rather gloomy outlook and Apple's 'Wonderlust' event failed (so far) to inspire investors' imagination. With US inflation figures due today and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision tomorrow, Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains why he remains positive that yields are peaking.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:54 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
07:08 Bond market / Research Calls update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
11:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Stocks around the world are being boosted not only by expectations that the Fed will pause its rate hike cycle next week, but also by investors buying into technology stocks after recent weakness and on news from companies like Tesla and Apple. In Asia, sentiment in the property sector improved after a Chinese property developer in distress reached an agreement to extend the repayment on six of its bonds. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communication, joins us today to provide a few details on our next webcast, where we will revisit our Market Outlook. The webcast takes place tomorrow, Wednesday 13th September, at 10am CEST. You can register here: http://ow.ly/rslb104TSK1
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:21 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:20 Market Outlook Update webcast details by Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication)
08:07 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Lower-than-expected Q2 US GDP data yesterday added to investors’ hopes that the Fed might take a breather in its hiking cycle. Stock markets might have rallied in response but they are still set to end August lower. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index data came out below the magic 50 mark, indicating the economy is still contracting, but some Chinese building and AI companies were given a boost by positive sector news. Meanwhile, UBS announced record-breaking Q2 results. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, explains that something does glisten more than gold (spoiler alert: it’s US Treasuries) and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis joins us to share what our Investment Committee makes of the ‘unbelievable strength of the US economy’.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:35 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
07:36 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
11:41 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
15:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The cooling of the US labour market suggests that the US Federal Reserve may pause its rate hike cycle in September. This sent equity prices soaring yesterday, while government bond yields fell substantially. In China's latest state-led measures, the country's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits. Bitcoin is also back in the headlines as a new ruling by a federal court in the US has given the green light for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. In today's episode, Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his views on the impact of central bank comments on bond markets and explains why we are now less convinced about the emerging market segment of the bond market.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:41 Bond markets – what’s changed? by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
10:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Global equities advance as investors continue to ponder central bankers’ comments at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last week and ahead of a series of key data releases later this week. Shop price inflation in the UK fell sharply to 6.9% in August reflecting hopes that this slowing in the pace of rising prices is a sign that UK households may soon be over the worst of the sharp squeeze on living standards. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, talks about the resilience of the US economy and shares with us where he thinks monetary policy will go from here.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:07 Jackson Hole review by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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After central bankers delivered no surprises to markets at Jackson Hole, equities are rallying this morning led by Chinese on-shore stocks, which are rising on the back of the new measures announced to lure investors back into the ailing stock market. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the uptrend for stocks remains intact.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:23 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:03 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)
10:22 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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US stock markets stumbled yesterday as strong results from blockbuster Nvidia failed to boost the broader stock market and as investors seemed nervous ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The negative sentiment spread to the Asia-Pacific region overnight. In other news, the BRICS group announced plans to increase its number of members, which could well lead to some complicated geopolitics going forwards. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he comments on the major developments in the FX and metals markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:45 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Nvidia delivered sterling results yesterday, topping analysts’ expectations for earnings per share, revenue and the forecast for quarterly sales. Stock markets globally rallied with tech and AI stocks benefitting disproportionately. US treasuries stabilised in Asian trading, having recovered some ground in the US session on Wednesday following softer-than-expected PMI data. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, provides insights into the current ups and downs of European energy prices and Nicolas Jordan shares how our Investment Committee expects the Jackson Hole Symposium to unfold.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
05:59 European energy market update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
09:08 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
11:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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US equities fell further yesterday, weighed by concerns over rising Treasury yields ahead of a key speech later this week from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares with us his recommendations on how to tackle the current environment in bond markets. And in a special contribution from Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, we talk about the latest developments in China.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:56 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
10:57 Latest developments in China (pre-recorded): Helen Freer (Investment Writing) and Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
11:26 China: Triggers for latest economic concerns
13:09 China: Impact of Chinese deflation
14:36 China: Explanation of recent rate decisions
15:43 China: Support for the property sector
17:29 China: Increase in risks to growth?
18:47 China: Our current investment philosophy
19:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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The sell-off in US bond markets resumed yesterday, pushing yields on typical Treasuries and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) up to levels not seen in years. Meanwhile, tech stocks rallied on optimistic earnings reports, which is particularly interesting as they have historically struggled in a high interest rate environment. In Asia, Japanese yields also surged, fuelling speculation that the Bank of Japan could launch an unscheduled bond-buying operation. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research joins today’s episode with his views on the latest news on digital assets.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:25 Latest news on digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
08:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Banks in China have cut their short-term lending rates, but markets are disappointed having expected more. Meanwhile, fixed income investors are looking for clues on monetary policy at this week's Jackson Hole conference. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, sees the market rout in August as a consolidation only.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:30 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:45 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)
09:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Higher bond yields in developed markets are spooking equity markets, but some on the bond side see the higher yields as too attractive to miss out on. Services prices in Japan rose at the fastest annual rate since 1993. China is pushing hard against a weaker yuan. Bitcoin drops like a stone on a report that Elon Musk's SpaceX company has sold the digital asset. A big options expiration day could explain some sharp moves in the US today. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s podcast and he notes that the British Pound has a big interest rate advantage over the CHF.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:20 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:36 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Strong economic data out of the US highlighting the country’s resilience contrasts with an increasingly worrying picture in China and economic woes in Europe. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals in the context of developments in China. And Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, shares with us the latest decisions from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:59 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
10:46 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
15:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Equity markets are pricing in a new reality in which US interest rates will stay higher for longer and China will no longer be a growth engine for the global economy. This has implications for investors, as Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research explains: "The momentum for higher yields in the US has increased”.
00:14 Introduction by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:19 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
10:27 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
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China's central bank has unexpectedly cut a key interest rate due to weakness in its economy and it being on the brink of deflation, while Japan's economy accelerated in the second quarter on a surge in exports. In the US, artificial intelligence stocks led a market rally in technology stocks, while small caps traded at their lowest level in a month. Argentina was forced to devalue its currency by 18% and hiked its key interest rate by 21% after an election upset, while the Bank of Russia is meeting as the Russian ruble fell below 100 per USD. David Kohl, Chief Economist, said that the US Federal Reserve has completed its tightening cycle, while the Bank of England only has one more rate hike of 0.25% to go.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:47 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:35 Outlook for Fed and Bank of England by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Asia Pacific markets are trading lower this morning after reported liquidity concerns at one of China's largest private wealth managers. A team at Goldman Sachs are expecting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of June next year. Markus Wachter from the Technical Analysis Research team provides a technical insight on oil, precious metals and US and European stocks.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:43 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:05 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)
08:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The rally across markets faded into the end of trading as Fed officials warned that the battle against inflation is not yet won, despite a benign US inflation report for July. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what the latest inflation data means for currencies and metals.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:40 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:27 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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A down day for US equities yesterday may not be so telling ahead of today’s all-important US inflation data release. The Italian government qualified the extent of its windfall tax on excess profits of banks; a US 10-year Treasury auction was well received; the US announces new restrictions on investments in key sectors in China; China is allowing group travel to key countries again; and oil, natural gas, and rice prices are all on the rise – so plenty to talk about on a peak summer day. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about China being in a balance sheet recession, the benign US economic picture, and that a consolidation in the US equity advance may not be such a bad thing.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:39 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
11:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Investor sentiment in Asia-Pacific takes a hit after China’s CPI and PPI data for July fell in tandem for the first time since November 2020, indicating deflation pressure amid weakening demand. And in a bid to restore calm to its financial system, Italy caps its new tax on banks' windfall profits at 0.1% of the firms’ assets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on fixed income markets and shares his expectations ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI print.
00:14 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
00:37 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:54 Fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
11:19 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
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Asia Pacific markets are mixed this morning after China reported trade data that showed a worse-than-expected decline in imports and exports. US markets closed higher on Monday, despite Moody's Investors Service downgrading ten small and mid-sized US banks. The Italian government approved a surprise tax on the ‘extra profits’ of banks this year, which could bring in over EUR 2 billion to the state. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:32 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:17 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
07:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Equities had one of their worst weeks in months, but most market participants believe this was due to profit taking rather than a significant change in the investment environment. The US employment report triggered a rally in US Treasuries - the entire yield curve has shifted significantly lower. Markus Wachter from Technical Analysis shares his thoughts on the direction of both equities and yields in the coming months.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:51 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)
10:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The Bank of England is the latest major central bank to raise interest rates in the face of high inflation figures. Elsewhere, earnings reports are pushing equities in one direction or the other, but US non-farm payrolls are the main focus for investors today. In Asia, China has pledged further support for the private sector and capital markets, while Hong Kong opens its doors to crypto. Also joining today’s show is Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, who shares his thoughts on the Bank of England's latest decisions and other major developments in the FX markets.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
07:05 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
13:59 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The Bank of Japan intervened in the bond market for the second time this week in an effort to slow gains in benchmark sovereign bond yields. ADP data showed private sector job gains in the US totalled 324,000 in July outstripping expectations, driven by a jump in the services sector. And Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, provides an update on how the Q2 earnings season is progressing.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:35 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:37 Q2 Earnings season update by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)
07:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Mixed US jobs data, a string of underwhelming earnings reports, another lower-than-expected reading on US manufacturing activity and Fitch's surprise downgrade of US sovereign debt are weighing on markets today. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research comments on the latest twists and turns in the fixed income markets.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:58 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:26 Central Bank actions last week and this week by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
12:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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On this last day of July, investors this morning are still digesting last week’s central bank actions and assessing the latest supportive government measures from China. In commodities, oil – although trading lower this morning – is broadly supported and on track for its biggest monthly gain in over a year. In equities, more earnings reports and a slew of economic data releases could drive this week’s market action. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, joins today’s episode with his views on yields and equity markets.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:17 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
08:28 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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After the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point and the European Central Bank followed suit, it was the Bank of Japan’s turn to announce its policy decisions this morning. While leaving its monetary policy unchanged, it signalled a loosening of its yield curve control, and this has caused volatility in the markets. Meanwhile, economic and labour market data from the US continues to signal strength, leading some to question whether the Fed will raise rates again. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, also joins today’s show and he reports on the latest developments in FX markets with a focus on the currency calls from our Market Outlook campaign.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:49 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
07:35 Mid-Year Market Outlook - FX market update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
14:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Yesterday the US raised rates by 25 basis points in line with market expectations, and gave no hints as to whether a further hike will take place on September 20th. Markets took the news in their stride and Asian stocks rallied this morning. Today it’s the ECB’s turn and they are also expected to raise rates by 25bps. With oil settling above USD 80 a barrel, Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on where the bullishness is coming from, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the latest views from the CIO Office.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:46 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:28 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
09:57 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
12:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Earnings results from the big tech companies are keeping investors on their toes as they wait for more colour on the interest rate decisions due today in the US and tomorrow in the Eurozone. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research talks us through his expectations and makes the case for peripheral eurozone sovereign debt.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:13 European Peripheral Government bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
10:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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The latest purchasing managers' indices for July from Europe and the US point to a slowdown in economic activity in both regions. Investors are now turning their attention to this week's interest rate decisions and any clues as to the future path of interest rates. In addition to economic data, earnings reports and corporate news are also driving equity markets. In the Asia-Pacific region, news that China is planning further stimulus measures has given hope and lifted stock prices in the region. Joining today's show are David Kohl, our Chief Economist, who revisits our currency calls from our Market Outlook campaign, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides an update on the current earnings season.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:26 Mid-year Market Outlook – currencies by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
15:05 Q2 Earnings season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
18:18 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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The outcome of the Spanish elections came as a surprise and is causing uncertainty among investors. Equity markets have generally performed well of late, with the exception of the Nasdaq, which fell slightly on Friday on heavy volumes ahead of rebalancing. However, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, remains positive on equities, and particularly the Nasdaq.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:49 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:34 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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The US labour market continues to send out strong signals, which could be crucial for consumer spending and avoiding a recession this year. Meanwhile, disappointing results from some tech giants are weighing on the markets, raising the question of whether the recent rally has gone too far. Elsewhere, some commodity-related news is hitting the headlines, pushing commodity indices higher for the week. Manuel Villegas, from Next Generation Research, talks about Bitcoin’s supply mechanisms and what factors could start off Bitcoin’s next rally.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:01 Digital assets by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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European stocks closed higher yesterday after UK inflation came in at its lowest level in 15 months. US markets also closed higher but futures fell stateside after both Tesla (record quarterly revenue but lower margins) and Netflix (revenue miss) reported Q2 results. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China surprised traders as it stepped in harder than expected to support the yuan, and Japan delivered its first trade surplus in nearly two years. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains the impact of China’s recent data releases on the industrial metals market.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
05:52 Industrial metals and China by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
08:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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After a somewhat sluggish start to the month, equities and bonds have picked up momentum in recent sessions, driven by positive earnings reports and lower yields. Dario Messi from our Fixed Income Research department explains why he remains positive on one of our core ideas in a risk-on environment: emerging market hard currency bonds.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
01:00 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:47 Impact of China’s stuttering economy on emerging market bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
11:02 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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US markets closed higher on Monday with the technology, financials and industrials sectors outperforming. Asia Pacific markets are mixed this morning, as China's sluggish economic recovery has led to a downgrade in growth forecasts. In response, China has unveiled an 11-point package of measures to support household spending. Microsoft has moved closer to completing its USD 69 billion acquisition of Activision but the deal is not likely to close by today’s deadline. Thomas Caflisch, our Head of FX & PM Solutions, provides an update on the currency markets and Leonardo Pellandini, from the Equity Strategy Research team, reviews the Q2 earnings season so far.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:34 FX update by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions)
06:50 Q2 earnings season by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy Research)
10:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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In a week full of optimism that the Fed was getting closer to ending its rate hikes, global equities rallied. The USD could not hold its own and sold off sharply last week. China's Q2 growth figures out this morning disappoint and are weighing on local equities. In the US, the Q2 earnings season has kicked off in earnest, with the big US banks surprising on the upside on Friday. UnitedHealth's strong results are an encouraging sign for the defensive healthcare sector, which is lagging this year. More than 150 companies will report this week. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the USD has broken major support levels.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:06 Technical Analysis viewpoints by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:46 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Global equities are heading for their best weekly gains since November last year after another set of lower than expected US inflation data. In Asia, optimism over policy support in China as well as the easing of some restrictions on artificial intelligence is supporting markets. Currencies have also seen some movement this week, with the US Dollar Index on track for its worst week on record. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his views on the latest US data and the likely path of the Federal Reserve.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:59 Assessment of recent US data and Fed’s likely path now by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
10:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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US equities rose, bond yields fell, gold advanced, and the US dollar dropped after US inflation data showed that core inflation fell to 4.8%. The lower inflation means that the real (inflation-adjusted) Fed Funds rate has turned positive for the first time in this economic cycle. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, talks about the clean energy investment theme, noting that it has become a victim of its own success. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, discusses the strong performance of the Magnificent 7 this year, highlighting that the rise of technology stocks is creating a positive performance backdrop for the broader equity market.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:37 Clean Energy downgraded to Neutral by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
08:52 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
11:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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US markets closed higher on Tuesday with the S&P 500 seeing Energy, Utilities & Industrials all outperforming. Asia Pacific markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 trading lower and China's CSI 300 down 0.4% this morning, a sign that local investors would like to see more stimulus to support the ailing economy. Microsoft moved closer to completing its USD 69 billion bid for Activision. Dario Messi of the Fixed Income team highlights our strategy for investing in longer dated bonds and looks ahead to the release of US CPI data and the next FOMC meeting.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:35 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:16 Strategy for adding duration to a portfolio by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:38 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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China has signalled that it will extend a number of policies and concrete economic support measures to support its ailing real estate sector. Asian markets are trading higher on the news today. And we hear from Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who talks to us about digital assets and provides an update on Solana.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:32 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:15 Digital assets update update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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US markets closed lower on the day and the week on Friday after non-farm payrolls data indicated that the Fed might raise rates at their forthcoming July meeting. Inflation data coming on Thursday and Friday will complete the final piece of the rate-hike puzzle. Meanwhile China’s disappointing CPI/PPI data this morning has heightened expectations of more monetary policy support being required. As the Q2 earnings season is set to kick-off, hear what our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, has to say about the prospects for the US equity and bond markets.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:35 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:09 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
10:30 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Equity markets have suffered steep losses in recent hours on the back of better-than-expected private employment data - today's official US non-farm payrolls report for June is likely to shed further light on the resilience of the US economy. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on how these figures could impact currencies and metals. And Kelly Chia, Deputy Head of Research Asia, talks about where he sees the best investment opportunities in Asian equity markest at the moment.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
06:54 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
12:32 Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023 deep-dive – Asian Equities by Kelly Chia (Deputy Head of Asia Research)
18:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The Fed minutes released yesterday revealed some disagreement among committee members regarding the future path of interest-rate policy. After their June ‘pause’ it seems that members do expect to resume hiking rates but perhaps at a slower pace. US and Asian markets closed lower, with Asian stocks also impacted by the recent disappointing data from China. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, updates us on events in the oil markets, whilst Nicolas Jordan fills us in on our CIO’s current thinking.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:09 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
09:05 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
11:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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China’s services sector activity is seeing a deceleration in its growth rate, as some firms reported softer than expected market demand, denting investor sentiment ahead of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China. And we hear from Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who shares with us his outlook for developed market equities in the second half of 2023.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:39 Mid-Year Market Outlook - Developed-Market Equity Strategy by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
10:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Asia-Pacific markets were mixed overnight as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep interest rates on hold. China has decided to restrict exports of critical minerals and electric vehicle manufacturers had one of their best days yesterday after Tesla and BYD reported strong Q2 electric vehicle sales figures. Manuel Villegas of the Next Generation Research team provides an insight into the latest news regarding Bitcoin ETFs.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:51 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
05:30 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The Nasdaq 100 index had its best first half-year ever, up 39%, as the emergence of the artificial intelligence product cycle drove these and other major US equities higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield came within striking distance of 4.0% last week, and strong electric vehicle sales and talk of the first approval of a physically-backed Bitcoin ETF are also in focus this Monday morning. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis research, points out that equities are not only strong on their own, but also relative to gold and bonds.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:53 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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US Treasury yields rose yesterday on better-than-expected economic data, but stocks continued to climb the wall of worry. The all-important US PCE deflator figures for May will decide the fate of the markets on the last trading day of the half year. And there is a lot going on in the currency markets these days - hear what our Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, Tim Gagie, has to say about the latest moves.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:41 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:32 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
14:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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At the ECB forum in Sintra, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey all said that they still have some way to go in raising interest rates to fight inflation. The 23 largest US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test. And both the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan are in focus as authorities worry about the weakness of their currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, says silver continues to move in gold’s slipstream.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:12 Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
09:38 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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A raft of strong data underscores the resilience of the US’s economy in the face of stickier-than-expected inflation. Investors will closely be watching the ECB forum today, when top central bankers will speak on a policy panel to discuss how to combat unrelenting inflation. And we hear from Roman Frey, Head of Fixed Income Investment Management, who shares with us why now is such a good time to consider fixed income.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:34 Implementing Market Outlook Fixed Income strategy by Roman Frey (Head of Fixed Income Investment Management)
11:01 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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US stock markets didn’t have the best start to the week as tech stocks led indices lower. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer, falling more than 1%. But this bad start to the week needs to be put into context: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still on track to finish June more than 3% higher, while the Dow Jones is currently set for a monthly gain of nearly 2.5%. As rates starts to bite and their impact is felt, Dario Messi highlights which segments of the bond market should be in investors’ focus as we head into the second half of the year.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:57 Market Outlook Mid-Year 2023 deep-dive – Fixed income by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
08:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Markets are eerily calm this morning following the dramatic end to an armed uprising in Russia. This week marks the last week of trading for the first half of the year, so the first conclusions will be drawn with regard to market performance this year. The headlines this week are likely to include the ECB’s Bank Forum in Sintra, the release of the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator), and the US bank stress tests. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to explain the technical patterns in precious metals.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Asian equities and European stock futures are in a sea of red this Friday morning as major developed market central banks go on inflation alert. However, artificial intelligence (AI) stocks continue to shine. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is falling again as traders look ahead to possible intervention to support the currency. In today's podcast, David Meier, Senior Economist, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, give their views on a range of currencies – from the British pound to the Turkish lira and the Brazilian real, to name but a few.
00:14 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:40 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:56 UK Update by David A. Meier (Senior Economist)
13:44 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
18:31 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
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Stock markets are lower for the third day in a row as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message on monetary policy, and data points to slower growth ahead. And European natural gas prices are on the rise again - listen to Norbert Rücker, our Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, to find out whether he thinks Europe is once again on the brink of an energy crisis.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:52 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:47 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
10:09 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
13:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Global equity markets struggle ahead of US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual report to Congress today, when he is expected to reinforce the message that interest rates need to stay higher for longer. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, provides his thoughts on why investors should not be chasing the rally in high yield bonds. And Adrienne Järsvall, Head of Fund Advisors, shares with us why now is a good time to consider alternative investments.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:53 Don’t chase the high yield bond rally by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
08:16 Reasons to consider alternative investments now by Adrienne Järsvall (Head of Fund Advisors)
11:35 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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European markets fell at the start of the new trading week with investors nervous about the economic outlook. US markets were shut for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight as investors digested China’s central bank decision to cut its one-year and five-year loan prime rate. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had his meeting with China's President Xi Jinping yesterday, with both sides pledging to stabilise their relationship. Hannah Wise joins the podcast today with details of what to expect when she hosts Christian Gattiker and David Kohl in the mid-year markets outlook webcast, which takes place at 10.00 CEST on the 27th of June.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:25 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:33 US growth and inflation by Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)
05:30 Preview of Mid-Year Market Outlook webcast by Hannah Wise (Head of Video Channels)
08:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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The main story this morning is the visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which has shown the first tentative signs of progress. However, Asian equities are still lower today as investors reset their expectations for further stimulus from China. Despite a generally quiet morning, the week ahead will be busy for investors with a total of 12 central banks due to announce their latest decisions and on the macroeconomic front, we will receive a number of leading indicators (flash Purchasing Managers’ indices).
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:32 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
06:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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After a flurry of interest rate decisions by major central banks, global equities are mostly higher and the USD is mostly weaker - although it is rising against the JPY as the Bank of Japan remains on its lonely monetary policy island. The rally in US equities appears to be broadening, while Chinese equities are rallying on stimulus hopes. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses currency positioning as the USD has continued to weaken against most currencies. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that simply stopping rate hikes is not enough for gold to shine again.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:36 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:41 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:07,5 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
14:52 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged yesterday and sees two small hikes by the end of 2023, as it deals with a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. Our Chief Economist David Kohl shares his thoughts on how the Fed will move from here, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides an update from our CIO’s Investment Committee.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:45 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:30 Comments on Fed meeting by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
10:10 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
11:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The stock market rally extended yesterday after US inflation figures reassured investors. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but much of the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the press conference. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, expects some words of caution.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:35 Bond markets ahead of central bank decisions by Dario Messi (Fixed Income research)
10:53 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Apple closed at an all-time high and the S&P 500 index ended the day above 4325 points its intra-day high from last August and so a key level for technical analysts – the focus is now on today’s US inflation release. China’s central bank in a surprise move lowered its short-term policy rate today amidst faltering growth figures – the big question is now if more stimulus is to come out of the world’s second largest economy. Manuel Villegas Next Generation Research notes that investors in crypto should expect confusion and volatility ahead as the US regulatory environment remains treacherous.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:37 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:36 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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This week is a busy one with central banks around the world expected to announce their latest interest rate decisions, including the US, Eurozone, Japan and China. There will also be a raft of macroeconomic data for investors to digest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to talk more about the VIX index hitting a new 3-year low and equity markets hitting a 52-week high.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
06:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
08:20 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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The S&P 500 index in the US entered bull market territory yesterday, up 20% since its October 2022 low, on optimism that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for the time being. In contrast, a rate hike in Switzerland on 22nd June appears to be a done deal, setting the Swiss franc up for a rally, especially against the US dollar, as Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, explains.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:33 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:49 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
08:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
The Bank of Canada joined the Reserve Bank of Australia by resuming rate hikes yesterday. Following the surprise 25-basis-point hike, US Treasury bonds sold off. India’s government bonds also sold off despite the central bank there not hiking rates, but the Sensex stock index is heading towards record highs. Japan’s government bond yields also rose following news that Japan’s economy grew an annualised 2.7% in Q1 this year, higher than the expected 1.9%. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the show to update us on the iron ore market, and Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team, provides the latest thoughts from our Investment Committee.
00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:34 Iron ore update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
06:43 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
09:18 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Straight after the Chinese authorities asked the country’s largest banks to lower their deposit rates, China’s trade data disappointed, with both imports and exports falling. But at least there is some positive geopolitical news as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to visit China. Meanwhile, US equities enjoyed some support yesterday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in 2023. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, joins today’s episode to explain why we still love IT stocks.
00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:29 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:24 Why we still love IT stocks by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
07:47 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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US markets were buoyed yesterday by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell saying that smaller interest rate increases are likely to be coming – as early as this December. Asian markets also rallied on the back of the US optimism and an initial easing in China’s Covid-zero approach. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research talks about the current moves in gold and silver, and what he expects going forwards, and Nicolas Jordan updates us on the thinking at this week’s Investment Committee meeting.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:13 Update on gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
05:46 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
07:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
One of the main stories in the market remains China, where officials have asked local authorities to avoid excessive lockdown curbs and have promised to step up vaccinations. In Europe, meanwhile, recent data has shown that price pressures have eased significantly in Spain and Germany. Investors now await inflation data for the whole eurozone later today. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research talks about how the market has perceived the lower inflation readings in Europe and what this means in terms of increasing duration risk.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:29 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Investment Research Analyst
07:02 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
US Federal Reserve policymakers suggest that interest rates may peak higher than anticipated, foreseeing a modestly higher path for policy compared with its stance in September. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls for robust pragmatism towards China, referring to the country as a systemic threat. And Damien Ng, Next Generation Research Analyst, talks to us about developments in the global immunotherapy industry and opportunities it presents for investors.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
03:03 The power of cancer immunotherapy by Damien Ng (Next Generation Research)
06:03 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
Protests are spreading across China over harsh anti-virus curbs. In the UK, meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing pushback from his ruling Conservatives as they try to force the government to drop a ban on new onshore wind farms. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, gives an update on the latest market moves, and Mark Mathews, Head of Research APAC, supplies more insights on the current situation in China.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
03:03 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)
04:40 China by Mark Matthews (Head of Research APAC)
11:05 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
The US equity markets were closed yesterday for Thanksgiving and are only open in the morning session today. Yet, people across the US will be shopping around the clock as it is Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, while parts of Beijing are back in lockdown again due to the country’s Covid policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the recent weakness in the USD. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, takes a closer look at the continuing fallout from the crypto exchange FTX, but also highlights some positive trends.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
03:38 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
06:41 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
09:31 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
The US Federal Reserve signalled that it is leaning towards downshifting to a 50 basis points rate hike in December. In Asia, meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party indicated further monetary stimulus, including a likely cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update copper and metals, and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis provides insights on the latest Investment Committee meeting.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:52 Copper & metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
05:59 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
07:52 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
Credit Suisse is cutting at least a third of its investment banking workforce in China as part of the bank’s cost-cutting plans. And the ongoing crypto crisis shows no signs of abating, with fears of contagion continuing to spread throughout the crypto world. Dario Messi, Investment Research, talks about US fixed income and his view on the rising risk of a recession.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
03:20 US fixed income - Positioning for rising recession risk by Dario Messi (Investment Research Analyst)
06:51 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
The sentiment is fragile in Asia after China’s daily virus infections climbed to near the highest on record. It is said local authorities may possibly re-introduce strict measures, despite the new directives from authorities over a week ago, that marked an easing in the official zero-Covid playbook. Guy Bettschart, Equity Analyst, shares insights on our longstanding Overweight call on Healthcare equities.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:00 Healthcare equities by Guy Bettschart (Equities Research)
05:26 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Markets are mostly down today after China reported its first Covid deaths in almost six months, sparking fears of new lockdown measures in the country. This week is traditionally quiet due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, but there will be a focus on the FOMC minutes which are released on Wednesday as these may offer some new insights. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about what the charts are telling us.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
02:56 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)
03:58 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
The St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, suggested in a speech yesterday that policymakers should raise interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25% - this likely contributed to all the major markets in the US ending the day in the red yesterday, and all except the DAX following suit in Europe. In the UK, Jeremy Hunt announced the Autumn Statement, and in Japan, core inflation for October reached a 40-year high. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on digital assets and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, updates us on currencies.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
02:53 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
05:54 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
07:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Both the US and Asian stock markets were upended by micro news overnight. In the US, it was Target that rattled investors by announcing that sales were down as shoppers grappled with higher inflation heading into a peak shopping season. US retail sales data however painted a different picture coming in 0.3% higher than expected in October. In Asia, an announcement from Tencent that it will divest USD 20 billion in Meituan shares caused markets to sell off. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, updates us on his expectations for the energy markets, whilst Nicolas Jordan updates us on the CIO view.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
02:52 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Macro & Next Generation Research)
05:55 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
09:07 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
A softer than expected increase in US producer price prices for October gave US equities another boost. However, geopolitical concerns are weighing on sentiment this morning after a missile is reported to have struck land in Poland near the Ukraine border. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research speaks about the broadening opportunity set in fixed income following the rise in real bond yields this year.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:00 New fixed-income strategy calls by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
07:45 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
At the G-20 summit in Bali, President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping met face-to-face for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The meeting ran about three hours, and showed signs of reduced US-China tensions. David Meier, Economics Research, gives an update on the EUR/USD currency pair, and why we believe the dollar has likely peaked.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:20 FX update (EURUSD) by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)
06:14 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Asian equities advanced to their highest level in two months on the back of China’s policy shifts on Zero Covid and the property sector. Democrats will keep control of the US Senate after its candidate for the US Senate for the State of Nevada is all but certain to have won the contest. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a look at market dynamics after the strong moves last week, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives his insights on the latest developments in China.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
03:35 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
05:23 China – double pivot by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
11:05 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
Equities rallied, the USD fell, and bond yields plunged following a report that US inflation rose less than expected in October. This morning, a subtle shift in China’s zero-Covid policy towards more targeted and scientific implementation is adding fuel to Asian equities. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about gold, which has rallied sharply from mid-week lows. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, provides a comprehensive sector-by-sector overview of this year’s Q3 earnings releases.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:07 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
06:41 Earning season update by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)
13:36 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
While the race for the US Senate is still open and it may be days or even weeks before the results are final, US President Joe Biden said that the Democrats had exceeded expectations and that he intends to run for a second term. Today, all eyes are on the latest consumer price data from the US, which will offer some clues on the path of future Fed tightening. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains what has been happening in the crypto world this week and Nicolas Jordan from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis reports on the latest decisions from our Investment Committee.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:59 Digital Assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
07:25 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
09:57 Dividends from a portfolio context by Arian Osmani (Traditional Fund Specialist)
12:45 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
While all eyes are on the results of the US Midterm elections rolling-in, it could still take a while until final results are declared. Markets will soon focus on tomorrow’s US inflation figures, which are expected to drop slightly. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Research, shares his take aways on the Midterms and their impact on markets, and Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about the strong moves in FX and metals markets.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
03:47 US Midterm results – initial assessment on market impact by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
06:12 FX/commodities update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
09:58 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Former US President Donald Trump plans to make a “big announcement” next week, indicating that he intends to run for President in 2024. China is experiencing an increase in coronavirus infections, reporting 7,323 new local Covid-19 cases, as it staunchly defends its zero-Covid policy. And David Meier, Senior Economist, gives us a preview of what we can expect from today’s eagerly awaited US midterm elections.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
03:28 US Midterms preview by David Alexander Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)
06:53 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
Whilst speculation mounted about China’s re-opening story, Chinese officials vowed over the weekend to remain “unswervingly” strict in Beijing’s approach to stamping out the coronavirus. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update on markets from a technical perspective. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights on China’s potential easing of the zero-Covid stance and how it might impact the country’s long-term economic outlook.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:23 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
06:17 China – loosening of Covid restrictions? By Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
10:49 Closing remark by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
US market sentiment was subdued following the big Fed-day on Wednesday, while the Bank of England delivered its largest rate hike in 33 years. China shares are on course for their best week since 2015 on continued speculation that the nation will start relaxing its zero-Covid policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, takes a closer look at what drives currency markets this week with a special focus on today’s employment report. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, compares bitcoin (miners) with gold (miners) and shows the differences, but also highlights similarities.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:33 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
07:28 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
10:18 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Yesterday evening saw all eyes once again on the US Federal Reserve, when it announced its fourth consecutive rate hike of 0.75%. Today is the Bank of England’s turn, and it is expected to follow suit. We hear from David Meier, Senior Economist, with his thoughts on the outcome of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, from Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, on precious metals, and from Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, with an update on the latest Investment Committee discussions.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:11 FOMC meeting by David Meier (Economic Research)
06:48 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
09:36 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
13:11 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
In China, equity markets rallied as investors there entertained the prospect that the zero-Covid policy might be dropped but at the same time the area around Foxconn Technology’s group has been put into a 7-day lockdown, which will drastically curtail shipments in and out of the world’s largest iPhone factory. US equity markets fell yesterday, the dollar faltered and 2-year Treasury yields rose – all in anticipation of another 75 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve later on today. Dario Messi joins us from Fixed Income Research to share his thoughts on what to expect from the Fed (there’s a clue in the title).
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
04:27 Fed preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
07:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
US markets took a breather yesterday, after a couple of strong trading days last week. While today’s trading action will be overshadowed by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision tomorrow, Asian stock markets are rallying on speculation to an end of the Covid-Zero policy in China. Nenad Dinic, from our Research’s Equity Strategy team, shares his thoughts on the outcome of the Brazilian Presidential elections and what that means for financial markets going forward.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:28 Brazilian elections by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)
09:52 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
US equity markets all made solid gains on Friday and 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose for the first time in four days. Wheat futures have surged today after Russia has withdrawn from the Black Sea corridor agreement and in Brazil’s presidential election, the left-wing former president Lula da Silva has beaten the far-right incumbent Bolsonaro. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:25 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Shares are falling in Asia after disappointing results from US tech giants Meta and Alphabet, while the Bank of Japan does not move an inch on its ultra-low interest rate policy. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, notes that the ECB is clearly focused on the inflation battle, but he explains why we have a below consensus view on future interest rate hikes. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, sees digital assets moving from crypto crisis to crypto calm, but it’s too early to argue for a rapid rebound as bottom-up crypto-specific factors have not turned favourable (yet).
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:14 ECB interest rate decision by David Meier (Macro and Next Generation Research)
07:44 Digital asset update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
11:24 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Credit Suisse posted a disastrous loss of CHF 4 bn in its Q3 results, hugely below the average estimate of CHF 413m. The disappointing results come as the bank is preparing a sweeping restructuring overhaul and is said to be in advanced talks with a group including heavyweights Apollo and Pimco, who are interested in buying the bank’s securitised products business. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives an update on energy, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, provides an update from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:00 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro and Next Generation Research)
06:25 Latest CIO views by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
09:11 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extended their rebound from their historic rout earlier this week, as authorities sought to bolster investor confidence in one of the worst-performing markets this year. Rishi Sunak is under criticism for reappointing a number of scandal-plagued former ministers to senior government positions. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, gives an earnings season update.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:44 Earnings season update by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equities Research)
06:24 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
US stock markets rallied yesterday but Asian markets couldn’t quite make their minds up, underscoring investor nervousness following China’s twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress and the announcement that President Xi Jinping remains in power. Rishi Sunak will become the UK’s new prime minister after meeting with the King today. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on what Mr Sunak’s government needs to do now and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong provides his insights into what to expect from China’s ‘new’ cabinet.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:23 UK politics by David Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)
07:16 Chinese National People’s Congress by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
12:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
After the end of the party Congress in China, big falls in Hong Kong stocks and mainland China markets today have seen the Hang Seng index drop to its lowest levels since April 2009. There have been big swings in the yen amid signs of another intervention from the Japanese authorities. And after Boris Johnson withdraws from the Conservative party leadership race in the UK, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt are left to battle it out, with Sunak the current frontrunner. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:02 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:03 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Traders were probably less surprised about Liz Truss’s political exit than herself. However, this morning, it is economic data, which weigh on the British pound. Yields in the US are back at levels last seen during the financial crisis and European yields are expected to catch up. Tim Gagie, our Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his views on the latest moves in FX and metals markets.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:32 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
07:08 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
The equity market rally seen earlier in the week stalled yesterday and 2 and 10-year US Treasury yields climbed 13 basis points amid fears of a global slowdown. The Japanese Yen is inching towards the psychological barrier of 150 relative to the US dollar, so investors are watching closely for further intervention to support the currency. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
03:49 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
06:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Earnings reports in the US fuelled the rally overnight but the story was more mixed in Asian trading. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy explains why he favours software in the IT space, and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research joins us to reveal whether or not emerging market bond yields are just too attractive to ignore.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:36 Our focus in the IT space by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
05:39 Emerging markets bond yields: too attractive to ignore? By Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
08:49 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
The global stock market started the week with a big rally, which saw the Nasdaq Composite Index rise 3.4%. Reasons for the rally were the solid earnings reports so far that offer a largely rosy view of the US consumer, as well as the news that Jeremy Hunt, the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, will reverse nearly all announced tax cuts and wind back energy subsidies. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, provides us with an update on China’s green ambitions.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:53 Update on China’s green ambitions by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
09:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
At the 20th national party congress, President Xi Jinping indicated no change in course for the two major risk factors weighing on the Chinese economy. Liz Truss is fighting for her premiership this week, when financial markets will render a new verdict on her economic reset. Mensur Pocinsi, head of Technical Analysis, gives a technical update and Ronny Kaufmann from CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis gives an IC meeting update.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:47 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
05:31 IC meeting by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
10:36 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
Following the higher-than-expected US inflation figures, US stocks initially plunged but then rallied, which improved the overall risk appetite and boosted other equity markets around the world. Now investors are turning their attention to the earnings season with the big US banks being the first to report their Q3 results today. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his take on the US inflation data, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, takes a closer look at currencies and metals.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:46 US inflation and impact on the Fed’s tightening path by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
08:12 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
11:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
The S&P 500 is at its lowest level since November 2020; the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting show that it is committed to raising rates to restrictive levels; and Germany reported that inflation rose 10% in the 12-months ending September. This sets the stage for the all-important US inflation report due out later today, which is likely to drive market action today, and maybe even in the weeks to come. Roberto Cominotto, Equities Research, speaks on why he thinks European automobile stocks are worth taking a closer look at now, even if there are concerns about a recession looming around the corner.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:10 Automobile stocks by Roberto Cominotto (Investment Research Analyst)
06:05 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Stock markets continue to suffer in the face of inflation and recession risks but the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen insists that the US economy is doing “very well”. The Bank of England publicly said it would buy more bonds but only until Friday. Privately, however, it’s reported that they will extend the deadline. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy shares his thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and suggests that the focus should be on Q4 and 2023 guidance.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
04:03 Earnings season by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
06:41 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Despite a slight change of tone coming from the Federal Reserve, US bond markets remain under pressure and yields have climbed further over the past hours. The US administration’s decision to curb China’s access to US semiconductor technology weighed heavily on the sector worldwide. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his views on the latest US labor report and Sophie Altermatt from Macro and Next Generation Research talks about what to expect from the upcoming National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:20 US labour market update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
08:00 China party congress by Sophie Altermatt (Investment Research Analyst)
11:32 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Chinese semiconductor stocks are falling after the United States imposed new restrictions on China's access to American technology. Liz Truss is preparing for battle with her ruling Conservative Party in a bid to quash any attempt at rebellion just one month into her UK premiership. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, gives a technical update.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:48 Chart insights by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)
05:21 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
A drumbeat of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials kept stocks on the back foot, after a strong rally earlier this week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his latest insights on the markets. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on digital assets with a focus on the city of Lugano embracing tokens as a form of payment.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:25 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
05:25 Digital assets update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
08:24 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Despite higher-than-expected US PMI services readings, stocks managed to claw back almost all of the losses through the trading session yesterday. The OPEC+’s announcement of a massive oil production cut provided tailwinds for oil and gas shares. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on the latest moves in silver.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
03:56 Silver update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
06:39 Investment Committee Update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
10:54 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Stock markets rallied in the US and those parts of Asia that were open overnight, as a weakening in the most recent US job openings data prompted some investors to consider whether the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Amidst this, Elon Musk went back to the SEC to say that he will buy Twitter at the agreed price after all. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research Analyst, shares his thoughts on the current bond market moves and warns that volatility is the only constant.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
04:12 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
07:34 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Following the worst September in two decades, markets are rebounding. Oil is surging on indications that the OPEC+ alliance is considering cutting production by over 1 million barrels a day to help prop up plunging prices. David Meier, Senior Economist, shares his latest insights on the UK macroeconomic situation.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:13 Update on UK macro policy by David Meier (Senior Economist)
08:26 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
US and European inflation data released on Friday surprised to the upside and Nike shares fell the most in 20 years. Oil is back up as there are reports that OPEC+ countries will cut oil production by one million barrels. The pound is up as the UK government will not cut its top income tax rate. And Brazil is off to a run-off election to be held on 30 October. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis, speaks about the volatility across financial assets and the bearish tone with US equities breaking through June lows.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:31 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)
07:20 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Stocks ended the day another leg lower yesterday after US Federal Reserve speakers reiterated their strong will to raise rates further, despite increasing volatility on financial markets and clear signs of slowing growth. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his views on currencies and metals markets, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, has a clear view on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and the latest developments in the field.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
03:24 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
05:48 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
08:58 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
The Bank of England’s intervention to buy an unlimited amount of long-dated bonds triggered record gains for government debt. Stocks in the US also posted their best day since early August. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his latest insights on the energy markets. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives an update on the latest CIO views.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:29 Energy markets/Nord Stream by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
07:01 IC Strategy update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
10:51 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Global stock markets continue to sell off whilst the US dollar strengthens further and US Treasury yields hit new highs. The IMF has called the UK’s proposed tax cuts excessive and suggested that they re-evaluate them. The European Commission President says that the Nord Stream leaks are an act of sabotage. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares his thoughts on the current bond market moves with a specific focus on Switzerland.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
04:04 Swiss franc rates by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)
08:09 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Markets jittery following rollercoaster ride for the pound
The UK government's pledge to continue with more tax cuts caused the pound to plunge nearly 5% to a historic low yesterday. And there is growing speculation among investors that the pound could soon fall to parity with the US dollar or even beyond. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategy, provides his analysis on the outcome of the Italian general election and David Meier, Senior Economist, gives an update on the drop in the British pound.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
04:28 Italian elections by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)
08:41 Sterling’s drop by David Meier (Senior Economist)
13:32 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
The UK government's pledge to continue with more tax cuts has caused the pound to plunge nearly 5% to a historic low. Giorgia Meloni, who earned a resounding victory in the Italian election held on Sunday, is poised to become the nation's first female prime minister. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, gives a technical update and Tim Gagie our Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva provides a currencies and metals update.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)
03:15 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
06:16 Currencies and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
09:18 Closing remarks by Alex Petersen (Investment Writing)
Equity markets across the US and Europe ended the day in the red yesterday. Central Bank meetings continued: the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and then announced they were intervening in an attempt to stop the slide of the yen; the Swiss National Bank, the Norges Bank and the Bank of England all announced rate hikes. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, also shares his latest thoughts on digital assets.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:11 Digital Assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
07:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
The US Federal Reserve is willing to tolerate a recession as a necessary trade-off for regaining control over inflation. The US central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row, leaving the Federal Funds Rate between 3% and 3.25%. It also forecast a further tightening of 1.25 percentage points by the end of the year. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his view on gold and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO office provides an update on this week’s Investment Committee meeting.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:37 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
05:13 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
08:59 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
US and Asian equity markets are lower and US Treasury yields remain at mutli-year highs ahead of the rate decision of the US Federal Reserve this evening. Market expectations are for a third consecutive 75 basis point hike. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, fills us in on bond markets movements as well as expectations not only for the Fed announcement today but also what the Swiss National Bank may deliver tomorrow.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:03 Central banks and fixed income by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
07:29 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
On Monday, US equities bounced back in the last hour of trading to erase early losses and finish in the green. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose to nearly 4%, its highest level since 2007. However, markets remain on something of a knife edge as investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes given stubbornly high inflation levels. In fact, Japan just reported that inflation rose 3.0% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides a preview of the upcoming central bank meetings. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, talks about the Italian elections this weekend and the likely impact on local bonds as well as equities.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:10 Central bank meetings preview by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
08:40 Italian elections by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
12:00 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Global equity markets ended their worst week since June this year and are now focused on the various central bank decisions due this week. The weakness in markets reflects expectations of further interest rate hikes around the world and concerns that the aggressive tightening to curb inflation could trigger a recession. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at US equity and fixed income markets.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:04 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
Concerns over the prospects of higher interest rates and the US company FedEx withdrawing its earnings forecast due to worsening business conditions are weighing on investor sentiment this Friday. Chinese data releases – while better than expected – did not help to calm investors’ nerves. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the drop in the gold price is the most important development in precious metals markets this week. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about the Ethereum Merge and highlights that its immediate benefits will not go beyond a reduction in energy consumption. Currently, it is macroeconomic factors that are driving price changes in crypto coins.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:23 FX & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
07:36 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
10:27 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
US equities recovered some of their losses yesterday, with Asia following suit, but concerns remain about the pace of US Federal Reserve tightening, as evidenced by the even steeper inversion of the US Treasury yield curve. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the energy situation and explains why he believes that despite the current higher prices, the market fears over Europe’s energy risks are excessive. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analyst, talks us through the discussions and decisions in this week’s Investment Committee meeting.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:16 EU energy by Norbert Ruecker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
06:33 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
10:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
US inflation fell less than expected in August sparking a broad-based sell-off across markets. David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides further insights on the print and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equities Research, gives an update on equities.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:20 US inflation numbers by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
06:47 Bottom-up sector considerations by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equities Research)
10:46 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Ahead of key consumer price data due today, stocks rallied around the world yesterday, with risk sentiment lifted on speculation that inflation is near its peak. In Europe, natural gas prices finally dropped after the European Union began outlining the details of its intervention in the energy crisis. David Alexander Meier, Senior Economist, talks about UK politics and the British pound.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:59 UK politics and the British pound by David Meier (Senior Economist)
08:41 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
US equities rebounded from a three-week losing streak last week, even as bullish sentiment in investor surveys continued to deteriorate.
The main economic event this week will be the release of the August US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. It is the key economic data release before the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on 21 September. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a look at what market action is telling us and what it may mean for US equities, crude oil, and US Treasuries.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
03:56 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
06:20 Stock of the week by Guy Bettschart (Equities Research)
08:43 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve remain committed to bringing down inflation by rising rates further. Meanwhile, UK politics takes a back seat as the world mourns the death of Queen Elizabeth II. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, comments on the interest rate decision by the ECB and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides further insights on the Ethereum merge.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:29 ECB interest rate decision by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
06:18 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
09:16 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
The European Central Bank (ECB) takes centre stage today and is set to hike rates by either 50 or 75 basis points. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on gold and silver. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his latest insights on currencies. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, gives an update on this week’s investment committee decisions.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
02:42 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
05:36 FX & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
08:51 IC Meeting Update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
12:16 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Global stock markets extend their declines as the US dollar continues to strengthen, assisted by higher Treasury yields. Crude oil has fallen to its lowest level since January on concerns that a global slowdown will cut demand in Europe and the US – all this as China’s Covid strategy hurts consumption by the world’s largest crude importer. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on the tasks ahead for the UK’s new PM as well as the impact of growth and inflation on the bond markets generally.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
03:20 Market update with a fixed-income focus by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)
05:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Liz Truss has won the conservative party leadership election and will become the next Prime Minister in the UK. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, gives an update on the energy market. David Meier, Senior Economist, explains what the newly appointed British prime minister means for the country’s politics and the British pound.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
02:40 Energy update by Norbert Ruecker (Head of Macro and Next Generation Research)
05:03 UK politics and GBP by David Alexander Meier (Senior Economist)
08:42 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
US market action started positive on Friday following the release of a better-than-expected US payroll report. However, concerns about interest rates being higher for longer and the news that Gazprom would indefinitely halt its key gas pipeline to Europe led to a sharp reversal in US equities. European equity markets are sharply lower this Monday morning on the energy developments. Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis, gave an update on US equity markets and the USD from a technical perspective.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:30 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)
06:47 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
The global bond sell-off means they have now fallen into their first bear market for a generation. Today investors await the US jobs report for August. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research provides an update on digital assets.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
03:53 FX Update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions)
07:11 Digital Assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
09:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Global bonds extend their sell-off, sending yields on two-year US Treasuries to a 15-year high. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, gives an update on the Oil & Gas sector, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, provides details on the latest discussions with regard to the bank’s investment strategy.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:01 Oil & gas update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
06:28 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
08:52 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Global financial markets are in defensive mode, after US equities were lower for a third day in a row yesterday, and commodities experienced their biggest single drop yesterday since early July. On the bright side, US gasoline prices are now below levels the day the war in Ukraine started, giving a boost to consumer confidence. Economic data releases out of China and Japan came in better than expected. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, explains how the EUR is caught between the ECB on a tightening course and high energy prices. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provides his outlook in the year-end given the market turmoil.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:17 Currencies in the wake of Jackson Hole by Dave Meier (Macro & Next Generation Research)
07:36 Year-end outlook: subsector overview by Mathieu Racheter, (Head of Equity Strategy)
10:02 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)US equities down for a third day in a row
Stock markets are taking a small breather this morning, reassessing the situation after it took Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eight minutes to dictate the new normal with regard to the central banks’ inflation fighting plans. US Treasury yields are slightly down but the US yield curve is still heavily inverted. Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, explains where he see yields heading and whether it is time to ramp up exposure now.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:05 Jackson Hole and its aftermath by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)
09:03 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke on Friday, with the markets reacting hawkish to his comments. In Europe, natural gas prices posted the biggest weekly gain in two months surging to fresh highs. Markus Wachter, from Technical Analysis, gives us a technical update.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:52 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)
05:36 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
Global financial markets are awaiting today’s speech by Jerome Powell, while power prices in Europe continue to rise. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Solutions Geneva, looks at the major currency moves this week. Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, shares his views on Ethereum and the upcoming ‘Merge’
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:16 FX update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
06:57 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
10:48 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
China is stepping up stimulus spending with a further 1 trillion yuan. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday, with the market anticipating a more hawkish lean to his comments. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on industrial metals and Nicolas Jordan from the CIO talks about what it means as markets are waiting for the next rate hike.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
02:50 Industrial metals by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
05:40 IC Meeting Update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
09:29 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
With investors waiting for more clarity from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole Symposium and after some weak economic data, equities across the US and Europe largely retreated yesterday. The Euro has dropped more than 12% versus the US dollar since the beginning of the year and is now below parity. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Strategist, also shares his thoughts on Jackson Hole.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
03:59 Jackson Hole tremors by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
07:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Both equities and bonds have had a bad start to the week on rising fears of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivering a hawkish message at the Jackson Hole Symposium where he is scheduled to speak on Friday. The euro stays under pressure after falling to a two-decade low versus the US dollar yesterday. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, shares his views on equity markets going forward.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:18 Equity markets outlook by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
06:18 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Markets are starting the week on their back feet as investors remain nervous ahead of the central bankers’ yearly get-together in Jackson Hole at the end of the week. Chinese markets are in a better mood as loan interest rates there have been cut by major local banks. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, believes that there is more upside for stocks going into September.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
02:53 Technical view on the market by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
05:08 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
So far this week, US equity markets have been rather subdued, but a large number of options expiring today could stir some volatility. Trading was mixed in Asia today, and in Europe investors have to digest the record high inflation print of 8.9% in the eurozone. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the world of digital assets.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:12 FX and commodities by Tim Gagie (FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
07:08 Broad crypto update by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
11:04 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
UK inflation data came in at another 40-year high for the year ending 31st July – on the back of this Treasuries sold off in the UK and also in the Eurozone. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were published yesterday and showed that officials agreed that the pace of interest-rate hikes will eventually need to slow down. Norbert Rücker, our head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on the energy market and Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, provides an update from the Investment Committee.
00:08 Introduction and markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
03:52 Energy update by Norbert Ruecker (Next Generation Research)
06:40 IC Meeting Update by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income)
09:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
US equities ended mixed yesterday, but were helped by better-than-expected results from large retailers. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its key policy rate to 3%. Maximiliano Ranieri, Structured Products Solutions Geneva, takes a closer look at the Brazilian market as the election campaign kicks off.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:19 Fixed Income Structured Products by Maximiliano Ranieri (Structured Products Solutions Geneva)
06:26 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
After a sloppy start, US equities managed to close higher yesterday, just below the 4,300-point mark – a level last seen in early May. Oil is lower again this morning on news of a slowing economy combined with a rising supply. Dr. Sophie Altermatt from Macro and Next Generation Research shares her thoughts on the Chinese economy, where data have mostly disappointed as of late.
00:09 Introduction and markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
03:55 China by Sophie Altermatt PhD (Economic Research)
08:09 Investment Views – ‘The future is green’ and ‘Ready to rumble’ by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
09:39 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
China’s central bank cut its policy rate by 0.1% as data highlighting its economic travails was released. Chinese bond yields and the offshore yuan fell. Asian stocks fell and the US dollar rose as investors reacted to the news. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, shares his thoughts on the markets from a technical standpoint.
00:09 Introduction & Markets Wrap by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
03:00 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
04:58 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
US equities saw a mixed trading session yesterday, where losses followed gains on speculation that the rally after softer-than-expected inflation data went too far. In Europe, the low level of the River Rhine and the fresh record for European power prices are causing concern. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, shares his views on currencies, and Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the Ethereum network and its highly anticipated ‘merge’.
00:09 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:17 FX Update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
07:38 Digital Assets update by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
11:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Surprisingly low inflation numbers for July in the US ignited a rally across risk assets yesterday. While US Treasury yields dropped only slightly, the US dollar gapped down versus most of its peers. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his take-aways from the inflation print and how the Federal Reserve is likely to proceed in its fight against sticky inflation.
00:09 Introduction by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
00:34 Markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:15 CPI update by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
08:16 Investment Committee meeting update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy)
11:26 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
US stocks closed in the red as markets are eagerly awaiting the US CPI data release. China’s CPI already released showed an acceleration to 2.7% in July, its highest level in two years. Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, speaks on the Inflation Reduction Act passed in the US and Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, takes a closer look at fixed income markets in the context of US inflation developments.
00:18 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
00:55 Markets wrap by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
04:25 US Inflation Reduction Act – impact on equities by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
08:56 Fixed Income Research: CPI data release and fixed income markets by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
12:49 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
European equity markets closed in the green yesterday, but in the US the major markets pared earlier gains and ended the day broadly flat, reflecting concerns around the economic outlook. Investors are also awaiting US inflation data that comes out tomorrow. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, also shares his thoughts on last week’s US Labor Market Report and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong provides an update on China.
00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
00:53 Markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:20 US Labor Market Report and the Fed by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
09:01 Hong Kong: China by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
11:51 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
After the strong US employment report last week, inflation reports are on the table for major economies this week, including the US, Brazil, China and India. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, points out the dramatic improvement in the performance of US equities compared to safe-haven assets.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:37 Markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:59 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:19 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up 19% since its low in June, just short of meeting the technical definition of a bull market. Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, speaks about why it was a big week in the world of crypto as traditional financial institutions make their way into the crypto world, while concerns about the security of digital assets remain.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:21 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
10:01 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
Global stocks continued their advance yesterday, reducing year-to-date losses to about 15%. The Bank of England is set to deliver the biggest interest rate hike in 27 years. Ronny Kaufmann, CIO Office, updates us on the latest CIO views.
00:18 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:34 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:38 IC meeting update by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Office)
07:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has landed in Taiwan and promised that the US will not abandon Taiwan in the face of Chinese pressure. Market participants are weighing in on further developments and their implications. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials hinted at further interest rate hikes to fight inflation.
00:18 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
00:37 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:44 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s expected visit of Taiwan has triggered a light rally in traditional safe havens, namely US Treasuries, gold, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Stock markets have not been able to hold on to their strong gains from July. David Kohl, Chief Economist, comments on the latest data with regard to economic growth in the US and Europe.
00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
00:45 Markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:45 Technical update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis)
06:32 US and Euro-area GDP by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
09:36 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
US shares are on course for a seven-week high despite a disappointing US second quarter GDP reading. Strong earnings from Apple and Amazon spur further hopes that the tech industry can handle an economic slowdown. Sipho Arntzen, from Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on cryptos and details further developments on the regulation front.
00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
00:40 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
04:03 Crypto assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
07:52 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Stock markets in the US rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a slowing pace of interest hikes on signs of an economic slowdown. The US dollar is lower while oil and gold are higher. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, comments on the first part of the earnings reporting season.
00:18 Introduction by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:31 Battery Metals Recycling by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
07:12 Earnings Update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)
09:30 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)
Equity markets fell yesterday but there was positive news later on when Alphabet, Microsoft and Texas Instruments all reported double-digit quarterly revenue growth for the second quarter. Australia’s Q2 CPI was lower than expected and this resulted in investors abandoning their bets for a 75 bps hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, also shares his latest thoughts on the FOMC meeting and the fixed income space.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:39 Markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:19 Fixed income update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
08:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
It was a quiet trading session on Monday as investors are waiting to assess a bundle of companies scheduled to report earnings today. Gazprom will once again cut gas shipments on the Nord Stream pipeline, creating a troubling prospect for the EU. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, shares his thoughts on the Federal Reserve decision due out tomorrow.
00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
04:05 US monetary policy alert by David Kohl (Chief Economist)
08:37 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Equities will be put to the test this week as the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points. In Asia, China is grabbing the headlines as it plans a fund to prevent a real estate crisis and solve the issues of US-listed Chinese companies. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, shares his thoughts on the market from a technical standpoint.
00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
00:55 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:25 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:29 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
European stocks closed higher after the ECB raised its key rate by 50 basis points, whilst in the US, major indices point to a lower open today after disappointing results from Snap. Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on digital assets, and the decoupling of token performances. Timothy Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, analyses the FX market’s reaction to the ECB’s interest rate move.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:43 Markets wrap by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
03:42 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
07:34 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:10 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
In Europe, Italy and the UK are making political headlines as investors await the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision later today. Meanwhile, gas deliveries through the Nord Stream pipeline resumed today. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on gold and silver.
00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
00:38 Markets wrap by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:14 Commodities by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
07:12 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
Equity markets rallied yesterday and the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all traded above their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April. US Treasuries were weaker with some curve flattening. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, also shares his latest thoughts on the earnings season so far.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:40 Markets wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:47 Earnings season by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
07:44 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
The rally on stock markets has paused on Apple’s plans to slow hiring. The race for the succession of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister and leader of the conservative party is heating up with Rishi Sunak one of the favourites. Sophie Altermatt from Macro & Next Generation Research talks about our revised forecast for economic growth in China.
00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets Wrap by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:13 China economy by Dr. Sophie Altermatt (Macro & Next Generation Research)
08:47 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
Markets are trading up this morning with Chinese tech shares in the lead on better sentiment as local authorities promise to step up efforts to bolster economic support. The reporting season in the US is gaining steam with some financial behemoths publishing their Q2 results today. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, talks about where he sees markets heading from a technical point of view.
00:18 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:36 Markets Wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:10 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
06:33 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
Stock markets recovered somewhat into the end of the US trading day. Main topics today are the US dollar’s rally, oil’s downturn, and the inverted yield curve in the US. Sipho Arntzen from Next Generation Research talks about the impact of the collapse of Mt Gox, once the world’s largest crypto exchange, on crypto assets.
00:17 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
00:56 Markets Wrap by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
04:27 Currency Markets update / king dollar by Tim Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)
07:51 Crypto Markets / Mt. Cox by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
11:52 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
With US inflation hitting its highest level since November 1981 in June, markets are now speculating that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by one percentage point at its meeting in late July. Meanwhile, draft projections by the European Commission show that the eurozone’s rebound from the pandemic could be weaker than anticipated. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro and Next Generation Research, shares his view on the energy markets.
00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
00:54 Markets Wrap Up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:37 Energy update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)
08:08 Investment Committee decisions by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Office)
11:36 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
Equity markets in the US fell yesterday but it was a mixed picture in Europe. CPI data for a number of European countries comes out this morning and then investors will be closely watching the US CPI figures, which are due out later today. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, also shares his latest thoughts on inflation and the fixed income space.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets Wrap Up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
04:53 Fixed income market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
11:09 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
Global shares moved lower in anticipation of the much-feared inflation data due on Wednesday. David Meier, Macro & Next Generation Research, shares further insights on the UK’s economic landscape considering also the resignation by Boris Johnson. Richard Tang, Head of Research Asia, updates us on the latest market action of Chinese equities.
00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
00:50 Markets Wrap Up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
04:34 GBP / UK politics by David Meier (Macro Research)
08:17 China equities by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
12:03 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
Equities are mostly lower in Asian trading following a report out of Shanghai that there has been a first case of the highly infectious BA.5 omicron sub-variant Sunday, which is stocking fears of further lockdowns. After the Nasdaq 100 had its best weekly return since August 2021 last week, our Head of Technical Analysis Mensur Pocinci gives his take on what this could mean for markets going forward.
00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
00:37 Markets Wrap Up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:11 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:48 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
The shocking news of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe being shot injected uncertainty into the early trading session. Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions, speaks about the euro, which has hit a 20-year low against the US dollar; and Sipho Arntzen, Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets and progress on the regulatory side this week.
00:19 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
01:04 Markets Wrap Up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
04:23 FX and Commodity markets by Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX&PM Solutions)
07:37 Digital assets by Sipho Arntzen (Next Generation Research)
11:55 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
In the US, a mixed response from Bonds and Equities to the Fed’s June minutes meeting made headlines. The Euro reaches a 20-year low, sliding towards parity with the Dollar, as investors fear the European economy’s lurch towards a recession. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his latest thoughts on the recent slide of precious metals prices, notably the price of Gold.
00:18 Introduction by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
00:59 Markets Wrap Up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
04:24 Gold / Silver by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
07:41 Investment Committee decisions by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Office)
11:11 Closing remarks by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)
US technology stocks ended yesterday’s session higher as the yield curve briefly inverted; Asian markets fell in today’s trading as lockdown concerns resurged. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, talks about higher-than-expected inflation in Europe and what it means for central banks.
00:18 Introduction by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets Wrap Up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
03:43 European inflation by David Kohl (Macro Research)
06:33 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
While US markets were closed due to Independence Day, European markets, especially in the UK and Switzerland, staged a rally yesterday, driven by dip buyers. Today, it is all about inflation data with markets again being surprised by higher than expected inflation prints. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research puts it all in perspective and explains where he sees value.
00:18 Introduction by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets Wrap Up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
03:32 US Government bonds by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)
08:17 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)
US equities posted solid gains on Friday, but the real action was in the bond market where growth concerns led to bond yields plunging. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his view on recent market developments, and shares what he is looking at.
00:18 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
00:45 Markets Wrap Up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
04:49 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
07:29 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)