The World of Sport

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For our hard of hearing members you have my side of today's Podcast below but remember, by visiting our YouTube channel, of listening on iTuines Podcasts, you will have access to a full transcription.

The generation game- an interesting series of articles in the Racing Post, do we agree with them or differ?

I’ve not had time to read those articles fully yet but I remember this Generation Z thing being announced years ago….Josh Apiafi was saying in 2021 how important it is to attract new blood to the sport, in particular those born between the years 1995 – 2010 or thereabouts. They had a plan in place….what happened to it?

The biggest problem, from my scan reading of the comments made, is cost. If you are trying to get say, students to go racing, they don’t have the kind of money needed for such a day out.

You sent me a message about the fact a Prosecco could only be bought by the bottle, and they wanted £57 for it? How mad is that? You wouldn’t pay that at a restaurant….so why a racecourse?

For me, all sports need a superstar, a big name, and since FRANKEL went down the back of the sofa, we haven’t had one….and my feeling is, that even if we did, racing is so scared to promote itself properly right now, the only people that would know about it are us doing this, listening to this, or reading my Newsletters.

I’ve got some cracking ideas….well, I think so….but at this moment in time those inside the game are so busy fighting each other, they don’t have the time to put racing on the front page.

Even if we had a hero….human or equine….nobody is going to pay nearly £60 for a bottle of fizzy water.

The fragmentation of racing power – how can the sport ever move forward with the BHA seemingly having their hands tied?

It cannot….simple as that. It’s like football….the teams at the top are reluctant to give the teams in the lower leagues more than a few scraps to feed on. They would sooner see racecourses disappear, than look at how the finance is structured, because they don’t want to lose any of their pie.

What’s the answer? Tote Monopoly. How they get that done is above my pay grade….but it needs doing….and about 50% of the racing calendar needs culling too….I looked at next years fixture list and am totally in agreement with trainers that are screaming from the rooftops that it’s no good saying we’ll sort this at the end of 2025….it needs doing now.

Arc antepost – do we have any opinions bright and early for the 2024 renewal?

I’ve not seen a better horse than LOOK DE VEGA this season but ECONOMICS threw his hat into the ring yesterday….I’m not sure CITY OF TROY won’t give it a swerve but the market right now says 11/4 LOOK DE VEGA, 8/1 bar.

Saturday Racing

Newbury 1.50pm

Only five runners left in, and we have an odds on favourite in AL AASY who, statistically is as likely to lose, as he is win.

He has won eight of his 19 races, so you see what I mean!

Trends say he cannot win….but they also say only one of SUMO SAM or GO DADDY can….but then, market trends say they cannot win.

I’ll explain….eight of the last nine winners were aged three, or four years of age but, eight of the last nine winners were sitting from three on the tissue, and we’ve had six winning favourites in the last eight years, including the last three….and, looking at AL AASY’s form figures, when he wins a race, he generally follows it up with another. The only time that has not happened to date was after a Listed race win back in 2022 during which he must have suffered an injury because he was off the track for more than 12 months….420 days to be precise.

Given his profile, he is the right favourite but I’m not sure he’s an odds on shot.

He is the highest rated horse in the race but he has to give weight to everything in the race and he’s actually 1lb wrong with the second favourite AL QAREEM, and 3lb wrong with SUMO SAM….who is a 4-y-o sitting front three on the tissue….a beaten favourite on seasonal debut, she has since undergone a wind-op and the Cole’s have book Tom Marquand to ride.

She won a Group 2 in September last year and was then sent for a Group 1 in France, where she completely bombed out and was missing for 217 days afterwards.

I do not like this race one bit. I can see AL AASY winning, but I can see him losing, too….so I’m just going to take a flyer and suggest a place only punt SUMO SAM with as much confidence in it landing a profit, as I’d have saying I could tightrope walk across the Grand Canyon in a hurricane. She’s 7/1 right now….take three places on Betfair….you might need it!

RON – SUMO SAM – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – AL QAREEM

Ripon 3.20pm (Handicap)

This has been a lucky race for Connor Beasley, who has ridden three of the last eight winners. He must be somewhere else tomorrow and on a promise, because he has no ride this time around.

We have had 2 x 3-y-o’s win this in the last nine years but they went off the 4/1f in 2015 and last year SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT went in at 7/1 fourth favourite so, I am going to work with horses aged 5, 6 7 because the three 3-y-o’s tomorrow are currently 16/1, 20/1 and 33/1.

Running with the age grouping suggested would have found us the other eight winners….five year olds have won six….so that might be my tie-breaker if required.

My first shortlist therefore contains:

MANILA SCOUSE
WOBWOBWOB
EMPEROR SPIRIT
THE TURPINATOR
INGRA TOR
MONSIEUR KODI

Weights next, as is usual….and the last four winners have carried less than 9st but….the three before that all carried 9st or more….I’m thinking, looking at the numbers, we go 8st 7lb – 9st 1lb because I’d have nailed eight of the last 10 winners doing that:

MANILA SCOUSE
WOBWOBWOB
EMPEROR SPIRIT
THE TURPINATOR

Down to four….and did you know that in the last 10 years, 49 horses aged four have tried to win this, but only five have placed?

Finally….I hope…I can apply market position and I’m happy suggesting front five on the tissue. Six of the last 10 winners were and, we have also had four winning favourites in that same time period.

WOBWOBWOB

Our only qualifier. He ran third in this race last season and was punted to win it, opening 10/1 on course, returning an SP of just 5/1….my feeling was that on the slower ground his double figure draw was an inconvenience….on quicker ground at Ripon you want a high draw and he’s got 15 tomorrow. Expect him to be gambled on again.

RON – WOBWOBWOB – 20/80

SEAN – MANILA SCOUSE – E.W.

Newbury 3.35pm

Another Group race that offers e.w. punters nowt, just seven going to post here.

It is not strong on trends and even if it were, having just seven runners limits me, as it did with the first race we discussed.

Mt selection is going to be ENGLISH OAK….I have to forgive him losing me money at Goodwood when he was beaten seven lengths by AUDIENCE but reading Ed Walker’s report on that run I think I can absolve him. He shifted a shoe, which caused pressure on his foot and he could finish his race off properly. He only lost third place to course specialist KINROSS in the final furlong and as his trainer says, “all things considered, that was a very brave run”.

I can say that historically, you want to be with a 4-y-o trading second, third, or fourth on the tissue and he is the only qualifier….four year olds have won seven of the last 10 running’s, and only one favourite has pulled it off in that period, too.

He is a 4-y-o trading second favourite and my go to horse here.

I can tell you that the horse that won this in 2022, JUMBY, is 33/1 > 16/1 since the market opened but it smells like an adjustment to me, not a punt.

RON – ENGLISH OAK

SEAN – FOLGARIA - E.W.

Curragh 4.00pm

If CONTINUOUS fails here, they’ll be packing him off to the sheds. He is currently best priced ½, and it’s then 13/2 bar.

On official ratings he is head, shoulders and tail above these, officially more than a stone better than the pair sitting second and third favourite. TARAWA is 15lb wrong with CONTINUOUS, yet gets just 3lb.

The second favourite….just….is CAUGHT U LOOKING who gets 10lb but that still puts him 5lb wrong.

The fourth favourite is TRUSTYYOURINSTINCT, who races off level weights but, in effect, give the favourite 12lb….and they will only give you a best priced 8/1 that he can do it?

If CONTINUOUS produces the form of his Arc fifth to ACE IMPACT tomorrow, he wins.

RON – CONTINUOUS

SEAN - CONTINUOUS

Curragh 4.35pm

It looks like another O’Brien odds on shot wins here. GROSVENOR SQUARE currently a best priced 4/5 with the winner of the County Hurdle (which I found for members @ 12/1….bragging rights!!), second favourite @ 3/1, and off the track since that win.

This is why I have so little to do with Irish racing I’m afraid. The form of those behind the favourite isn’t good enough to beat him, but, would I take odds on about a horse that has only won two of his six races to date?

Put a gun to my head and I say pull the trigger…he has been used as a pacemaker more recently, when second in the Curragh Cup but he should be beating a hurdler if his nine and a half length 7th in the Irish Derby is right. He is, officially 2lb superior to ABSURDE, but gets 10lb….he should be 1/6, not 5/6….but that tells you how “iffy” this is.

RON – GROSVENOR SQUARE

SEAN – GROSVENOR SQUARE

OMMS

LAIZEELUNCH – 12/1 > 6/1 – WON 9/1
MEARALL – 6/1 > 6/5 – WON 11/8
CORRIAMO – 9/1 > 11/4 – WON 2/1

Something for the weekend

RON – WOBWOBWOB – 20/80

SEAN – SHAREHOLDER (Deauville 2-30 Sunday)

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Sorry about yesterday! I was unable to save a file to the website through which I produce the podcast and that was me snookered.

I’m not sure if you’ve seen my Facebook post this morning but on Tuesday night, I saw a ride by Amie Waugh (hope I pronounced that correctly, Amie!), that was as good as you’ll ever see.

I have watched it back several times this morning and still cannot believe how Amie did it.

Entering the final furlong she had a wall of horses….and I mean, a wall of horses, in front of her, and she must have been booked for 10th at best....that had to be one of the most competitive Class 4 Handicaps I have seen in a long time, the first 14 home covered by less than five lengths. A screamer of a race!

Anyway, ROCK MELODY was travelling great, Amie had the proverbial double handful and it was going to come down to getting the breaks….and she got them....just!

Several around her were being hard driven and wobbling from side to side but, she kept her cool, kept her line straight, and with about 50 yards to go the horse on her left edged in, causing the horses head to back and left, but somehow still going forward. The gap came, she may have had to ever so slightly made the gap), and she flew….hands and heels, hit the front with a couple of yards to race and won by the cosiest of necks you will ever see.

I have seen comments on Facebook such as, “had that been Dettori, or Buick, or Loughnane, or Hollie Doyle”….or any “big name” jockey come to that, it would have been headline news, and up for ride of the season (I hope this is, because I’d vote for it).

Stunning it was and as cool a ride by any jockey, that you will ever see.

Sean Trivass and I will be discussing lady riders in tomorrow’s big podcast and you can bet your bottom dollar I will be waxing lyrical about Amie’s ride again.

The racing right now isn’t the best….but it’s midweek and we shouldn’t expect it to be.

I mentioned a couple of days ago the “seam” I’m currently mining, that being when we have three OMMS spotted in a single race.

Since I advised of this, I have seen additional successes, and we know have 10 winning bets from the 16 placed, a lovely 14/1 winner last night on the all-weather.

I do need to carry out much more by way of sampling, to see if this has legs across a season and will most likely create a Podcast just to discuss how much the markets have a bearing on the results of horse races right now….I’m finding it fascinating but then, I’m a bit of a stats nerd!

Like I say, the racing right now is “light”….I’m being kind to it….but I’ll again offer up three names you might like to write down for today.

I had one a couple of days ago I said was a morning mover….not strong but, that it might yet become strong….it ended up 2/1 favourite and bolted in.

Three for a Tickle then….

GO ON ROSIE (Beverley 3-10)
INVINCIBLE SONG (Chepstow 3-20)
PEARL ABBEY (Chelmsford 6-40)

Play those how you like…your call.

I’m going to call that it for today as my chimney seep arrived a day early and I’m late sitting down to do this. Tomorrow….no solo Podcast as Sean and I get to have a good old chat about racing, then try to find you some winners for Saturday si good luck if you are getting involved and make sure you tune in tomorrow!

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As subscribed members have seen in recent times, I’m making a heck of a lot more of the OMMS section, not only in traducing colour-coding, but also highlighting those strong, or very strong, with the use of a flame icon. Yesterday, for the first time in a little while, we had two very strong in that section, CORRIAMO, 9/1 > 6/1 in the early Newsletter, and mashed into 11/4 by 10-00am. The other was the Fahey trained juvenile debutante MEARALL, 6/1 > 11/4 in the first Newsletter, but just 6/5 by 10-00am. That race also gave us a chance to lay the odds on favourite, which eventually drifted out to 15/8 from the 8/11 I had advised earlier. Both horses won their respective races easily enough and I’m keen to see what Fahey does with his because for him to get one ready to win on debut is rare. On Saturday we saw just how important it is to be working with the 3-y-o’s in all aged handicaps. In the Redcar 3-12pm....two 3-y-o’s remained following the withdrawal of GRESSINGTON....and it was won by a 3-y-o that was, by off time, a BRF. The Haydock 2-25pm....my top Rated 3-y-o was withdrawn early, which meant we had two left, that also now sat top two Rated....they came home 1-2. The last race on the Haydock card was the 6-25pm, which had 2 x 3-y-o's entered. Won by BURDETT....a 3-y-o....@ 9/2. The two races at Ayr....both Class 5 and class of race may be something I need to consider when working the 3-y-o's....my figures for the 7-12pm were good, with the 16/1 winner sitting second top, and a winner on the going as was described when Rating the race. The two 3-y-o's came home 2nd & 3rd. The 8-15pm, a Class 5....we had five of the 10 runners aged three. They came home 1-2-4....with my top Rated horse in third so, it might be at that class of race we do need to retain the current STAKE MANAGEMENT rule. As I said in my early Newsletter yesterday, I have homework to do come October. I’ll be looking back at every rated race since the conclusion of Royal Ascot and come May next 2025, the start of the core flat season next year, I’ll have something in place that helps us make even more profit from these races. Something else I need to do is have a good read of the 2025 fixture list. Failure to prepare, is, as they say, preparing to fail. Today’s racing isn’t at all bad and I have a Rated race at Windsor that is as good race as I have worked on all season. No fewer than 13 of the 16 runners achieve a + Rating….that’s extraordinary. Subscribed members are already in receipt of my final thoughts on that one. I’m not sure what to do with Ayr, given the weather forecasts for Scotland. The BHA website now has a revised message regarding the wet stuff, and they now expect a couple of hours of heavy showers. Given the fact it is already good to soft in places up there, it might well be soft all over by the time racing starts….I’d sit on the thought of betting there until you’ve seen how it is riding after the first. It seems trainers are pre-empting a going change and two of the front five on the tissue for the second race on that card are out, and Lucinda Russell already has a brace of non-runners. They have exactly the opposite scenario down south, with temperatures set to top 30c at Windsor by 3-00pm and for them to be racing in 26c of heat. I’m expecting more non-runners everywhere so it’s pointless my trying to produce a fun punters play for today. With the racing in such a state of flux I thought I’d finish by telling you about Tony Davidson’s Season Ticket. The Premier League commences this coming weekend and Tony is going to be looking at six games every weekend for you. He will be helped by Sean Robinson, who is currently on holiday Texas so this weekend I’m on football IT duties. To access Tony’s work will require a subscription of just £10 per month and you can subscribe via the PostRacing.co.uk website. Just head over there, click on SUBSCRIBE in the main menu and you’ll find TONY D’S SEASON TICKET at the bottom of the membership options. Hopefully tomorrow I can pop up a little racing play in the Podcast but for now, I’ll call it a day here and wish you a good one!

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Mick Appleby – top trainer at Glorious Goodwood, what were the odds?

I imagine they will have been under “others on application”!!

You'll find more in the full transcription on iTunes Podcasts or our YouTube channel.

Saffie Osborne – give her the rides and she will give us all the winners

I sent you a message last weekend saying, “Saffie Osbourne, three winners for three different trainers!....Podcast!!”

Yesterday, that Racing League nonsense I will not even watch….again, three winners, for three different trainers.

Her last 47 rides have produced 12 winners….26% strike rate. No fewer than 20 of those 47 rides have finished in the first three….this season, 424 rides, 67 winners, with 171 finishing first three and she has a +19.41 level point stake all rides.

A diamond, who has been well educated in race riding by her dad, Jamie, who was one of the best I ever saw riding two mile novice chasers.

Sir Michael Stoute is using her a lot too and right now I’d suggest she’s every bit as good as Hollie Doyle, who has ridden seven winners from her last 48 rides (15% strike rate) and four of her seven winners went off favourite, including that 1-14 shot last night!

The Shergar Cup – not for the punters (?) but some serious talent on show

I’ll be honest, not even looked at it. I read a story this morning about a dead bloke that’s riding in the race, Jose-Luis Borrego….well, his heart stopped beating for seven minutes after a fall at La Zarzuela in Madrid! Thankfully the on course doctor didn’t give up on him and he’s going to fulfil his dream of riding at Ascot tomorrow….best of luck to him!

Two things stop me betting here, first….teams….I don’t do “teams” in racing….and so many jockeys I know nothing about, or have time to find out about….so I’ll let it happen without me being involved in any way, shape, or form.

I mean, who is Bauyrzhan Murzabayev? And then you also have reserves lined up….nah, not for me I’m afraid!

Saturday Racing

3.00pm Haydock

A Group 3 with just the seven runners heading to post and we have a short priced favourite in ANMAAT, who has not been seen for 439 days but, his last race saw him winning the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.

He is the winner of six of his last eight races, and in the other pair he finished runner up.

He is one of those horses that give all owners a bit of hope….from winning a six runner Class3 Handicap at Bath, to the d’Ispahan at Longchamp in less than two seasons.

He won this race in 2022

He’s a six year old and last season AL AASY became the first winner in the last decade older than five to win this race….he too was a 6-y-o

I see no age group bias here, the last four winners being aged 3, 4, 5, 6….prior to that, 3, 4, 5 and with weight ranges not applicable here, I’m looking to see how the market performed….three of the last five winners returned as favourite.

Six of the last nine winners were front three on the tissue, five of those front two.

I’m happy going front two, not least because they are trained by Owen Burrows, and Haggas, who have trained three of the last five winners.

So, one of ANMAAT or AL MUBHIR for me….dutch to profit.

The solo play for Podcast purposes only has to be ANMAAT, who has not been out of the first three home in12 races under rules, winning seven of them. He is racing off level weights with AL MUBHIR but is, officially, 6lb the better horse.

The one negative is, he appears to be brittle, just five races since September 2021. Burrows seems to know when to race him though and I’ll trust his judgment here.

RON – ANMAAT

SEAN – LORD NORTH – E.W.

3.05pm Newmarket (handicap)

I had been looking forward to working with a double figure field here but just nine head to post and by crikey it’s a poor race….the five at the top of the weights have not even placed in their last 14 races combined, this season.

It’s another weak race for trends/stats, too. Winners in the last nine years aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 but if pinned to a wall with a gun to my head, I’d suggest we run with three and four year olds, but that accounts for seven of the nine runners.

Weight ranges definitely point me in the direction of horses carrying 9st 2lb – 9st 7lb….that would have seen us betting the last five winners, and six of the last nine.

Market position? In the last decade just two winners have returned SP’s bigger than 13/2 and the tissue I’m looking at suggests our winner is one of:

BOBBY BENNU
ALZAHIR

Right ages, right market position, correct weights….but my way in here is that the last four years have seen this race won by 3-y-o’s trading favourite and BOBBY BENNU fits a Profiling as well as any in here….better than most.

RON – BOBBY BENNU

SEAN – BOBBY BENNU

3.25pm The Curragh

The Brits have enjoyed success here in the last 10 years, two of the last four winners had gone over to take this prize, and in 2015 Tim Easterby sent MATTMU over to scoop the pool.

The winners of five of the last nine renewals of this race were ridden by UK based riders.

Just as an aside, the winners in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 all started with the letter G…how funky will it be if GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS comes out the Profile selection here!

UK based trainers have the front three on the tissue….fourth best is….GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS

Seven of the last 10 winners were drawn five, or lower….I’m thinking that’s important, as is returned SP’s….we do get the odd shocker but six of the last nine winners were 8/1 or shorter, with six going off 5/1, or shorter.

Everything does point to a UK winner here. They are all 5/1, or shorter, all drawn five, or lower,

ELECTRIC STORM
KIND OF BLUE
SHARTASH

I’m liking SHARTASH here. Recently purchased by Wathnan Racing, he was a winner of course and distance when trained by Johnny Murtagh. He ran a blinder in France recently and before that was only beaten five lengths and change in the Group 1 Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He is the best of the three on official Ratings, 10lb clear of the one trading favourite, ELECTRIC STORM, and only has to give that horse 3lb tomorrow.

KIND OF BLUE came up just short in Group 3 last time out having ran a monster of a race in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot the time before. He comes out the best horse on official figures by 2lb but both his wins to date have come in Class 5 events, whilst SHARTASH won a Group2 here in 2022.

RON – SHARTASH – 20/80

SEAN – ELECTRIC STORM

3.40pm Newmarket

We had a 66/1 winner of this in 2020 but like any race, it can throw up the occasional anomaly.

Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston farmed this between 2014 and 2019, five of those six winners they had, and Charlie Johnston won it on the joint licence in 2022, but neither yard is represented tomorrow.

Take that 66/1 shot out of the equation, only one other winner this last 10 years has returned bigger than 7/1 and only two qualify tomorrow:

LAKE VICTORIA
MOUNTAIN BREEZE

It is 8/1 bar that pair at the time of writing, the market headed by the Aidan O’Brien trained LAKE VICTORIA, with the Godolphin runner trained by Charlie Appleby.

O’Brien has not sent anything for this in the last 10 years but Appleby has…eight in total, with just three placing, not a winner as of yet.

For that reason….but with not a lot of confidence in a once raced filly who did have the form of her win at the Curragh given a good boost when the runner up, RED LETTER, bolted in by over four lengths a couple of weeks ago.

RON – LAKE VICTORIA

SEAN – LAKE VICTORIA

4.35pm The Curragh

A near £200k first prize and only six racing for it….if I was running the gaff I’d halve that prize money and throw the other 50% at the lower class races, giving smaller owner/trainers a chance to win a decent pot. That’s probably gone down like a lead balloon at Coolmore!

They have the odds on favourite running for them, WHISTLEJACKET, who was expected to win at Royal Ascot but my Profiling selection, SHAREHOLDER, put a spanner in those works.

He was sent back to these shores when upped in trip at Newmarket for the July Stakes, a Group 2 for juveniles, and he bolted in.

The market….and that’s all I can trust here for Profiling purposes….says one of WHISTLEJACKET or BABOUCHE wins tomorrow….it is currently 9/1 bar the two….but I have to go with the favourite I’m afraid.

I have no idea how good BABOUCHE is as she arrives 2-2, having gone off favourite on both occasions but has yet to race outside of Group 3. I imagine Aiden O’Brien has her number because the horse she beat half a length last time in the Anglesey Stakes, was a stable companion of the favourite tomorrow, CAMILLE PISSARRO, who is officially rated just 97….WHISTLEJACKET is officially rated 111, a full stone better than CAMILLE PISSARRO, so BABOUCHE needs to improve a bundle to beat the colt, who only has to give the filly 3lb.

RON – WHISTLEJACKET

SEAN - WHISTLEJACKET

OMMS

ZENZIC – 20/1 > 10/1 – WON 10/1 (advised as being solid)

MERRIJIG – 11/1 > 5/1 – WON 5/1

COCONUT BAY – 9/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. DOUBLE – BOBBY BENNU & SHARTASH

SEAN – LAKE VICTORIA

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I think I might have picked the wrong week to start the Daily Podcast.

It has been awful racing this week and I made a point of telling my subscribed members in their morning Newsletter that I was loathe to put the Daily Podcast out on social media yesterday, because I knew how poor the racing was and I was spot on!

I ended up posting it on Facebook 20 minutes before the first of the FOUR FOR FUN went to post, didn't bother telling our WhatsApp group it was there and it's very much the same today....if not worse...probably worse.

Subscribed members may have had some joy with GLENDOWN, who was a mover 18/1 > 10/1, hit 11/1, then got punted into 9/1 and won easily.

We have four meetings, one of which is Racing League nonsense (Chepstow), two of which are purely on for holidaymakers at Yarmouth and Brighton, five of the six races on the east coast Class 6, on the south coast three Class 6, an apprentice race, a race confined to horses that have not won a race in 2024, another confined to horses that have not won more than one race...ever....Yarmouth has just 33 horses going racing, Brighton just 42 and the one glimmer of light is Sandown....but they offered me just two races to consider for Rating, one of which is now down to six runners, four of which are 3-y-o's, and the last race on the card a Class 5 that exceeds the maximum field size for that Class, for Rating

I pointed this out to Sean during the afternoon and he just laughed, said, "and it's the Shergar Cup at the weekend!".

It's simply indicative of the week following a Festival of racing....it was the same after Royal Ascot....and I'm taking things very easy this week.

The only thing I have spotted as being a flash of light has been the BF's in the OMMS section....last two days, six were listed, producing four winners, two more placing.

So, no Rated races but that gives me more time to follow the markets. Doing that produced good results a few of days ago. Whether we see the same again today, we’ll find out later.

My biggest problem has been trying to work with that Brighton card. Only one runner had seen support there and that has now eased a fraction. You can have that one for nothing….4-00 - OPEN SECRET - 15/8 > 11/10 > 5/4

I’m not even looking at Chepstow, a Premier meeting, run under the farce of the Racing League banner. Racing is not now, nor will it ever be a team sport. How can people bet on it when they have no idea what team instructions are being given? It could well be like Formula 1, when a horse could be going to win but the jockey has been instructed to let someone else in so that points scored improve the chances of winning the league? Not saying it ever does happen, but I’ll not take a chance.

So what am I going to offer you today?

It is extremely light today and I have genuinely struggled to find much of anything I would consider betting myself.

I have continued watching the markets since I sent subscribed members my update Newsletter and note a move for:

BEECHDALE (Sandown 6-45) 16/1 > 7/1

RAIMUNDA (Sandown 8-15) 25/1 > 9/1

A small 20/80 each might produce a penny or two of profit.

TONY D’S SEASON TICKET

Tony Davidson is going to start working with us for the entirety of the forthcoming Premier League season, producing advice for a minimum of six games per week.

This will require a monthly subscription of £10 per month and you can make your subscription by visiting the postracing.co.uk website and selecting TONY D SEASON TICKET from the list of options.

I will be making a decision regarding a Newsletter being provided as part of this subscription.

No daily solo Podcast tomorrow as Sean Trivass and I will be doing a full one that will be live by around 4-30pm.

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Today we look back at the results produced by my work for my subscribed members, try to find us a selection of horses to have some fun with and I have four horses named in the Podcast that I've labelled FOUR FOR FUN

See you again tomorrow!

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My very first solo flight and so I've kept this short and sweet whilst I get to grips with the amount of work required to fill 15 minutes of your life.

Below is the text of today's daily podcast, for our hard of hearing members.

The first of the daily podcasts and we’ll see how we go. My plan is to put together a 15 minute podcast each day, that is up by noon and hopefully points out the odd winner. I might even look at Placepots once in a while and it’s very much a fun punter thing.

Today the racing is light, a complete dogs backside at Lingfield with a host of Class 6 nonsense, and a brace of Class 5’s….nothing for me to work on for my subscribed members, other than the OMMS.

Carlisle is an all lady rider meeting that is put on once a season and the Tote has put up a £50k guaranteed Placepot if you fancy getting involved in that.

Lingfield…I’d close the curtains if they were running in my back garden….shocking stuff. Having said that, I’ve got one very strong and five strong in the OMMS section of today’s Newsletter so what do I know!

My subscribed members have been given THE WORKS this morning, three Rated races from Ripon and EMMS/OMMS/MMMS for all three meetings taking place so I thought that for this very first daily Podcast, I’d look to see if anything in Ireland is fancied.

Naas 2-50….GORDON BENNETT, a beaten favourite last time out and a previous course and distance winner is 7/1 > 4/1. He’s one of just two in the race with previous winning form at that track and is a 20/80 suggestion.

FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE

We have our very own league set up over at the official permierleague.com website. I’ve called it the 500 Club League and I’m putting up prizes which, along with the code to join our league, will be on the postracing.co.uk website

The plan here is for me to get to a situation where I can do this the day before racing and look at races in the same way Sean Trivass and I do of a Friday and last weekend, if you tuned in to that one you had a couple of lovely winners, LA TRINIDAD, which was up @ 25/1 on the morning of the race going in @ 14/1, and JORDAN ELECTRICS, who bolted in @ 5/2

So today, with it being pretty weak racing away from Ripon, I’ll suggest a 20/80 GORDON BENNETT

Have a brilliant day and we’ll meet up again tomorrow…I hope!

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Ron and Sean chat about the ridiculous running of the Group 2 at York last Saturday, the going descriptions being provided that are anything but accurate, and Geoff's bonkers e.w. double last Saturday....that made him a profit!

This was Ron's side of the conversation regarding the races disected...well, discussed.

2.40pm Newmarket

A decent little Listed race that should be (hopefully), relatively simple to solve.

Three year olds have won the last five running’s, they’ve won seven of the last nine so, putting my Einstein brain into gear, I’m going to suggest a 3-y-o will probably win it.

Obviously, when a 3-y-o wins it, they carry less than 9st, and, looking back historically at the returned SP’s of those last 10 winners, it’s evident we need to look at horses trading 13/2, or shorter….nothing has returned a bigger starting price in the last decade.

So, a 3-y-o, trading shorter than 13/2 is what I want onside.

One of FAIRY GLEN or PLACE OF SAFETY wins tomorrow. The latter does not yet have an official mark as she has only raced twice so I’ll lick my finger, hold it up and see which way the wind is blowing….FAIRY GLEN is trading favourite….not good if the 2-10 stat holds up and, the Gosden’s, who train PLACE OF SAFETY have won this for the last two years running, with John Gosden also responsible for the winner in 2015 and 2017.

Fair to say they target this race and I’m going PLACE OF SAFETY 20/80 at the current price of 9/2

RON – PLACE OF SAFETY – 20/80

SEAN – PLACE OF SAFETY – E.W.

4.30pm Thirsk

When I saw this in the list and checked the status, saw “Handicap”, I thought, “lovely”….started prepping it this morning….not a single previous running of the race and that’s me light’s out, goodnight Vienna.

The only stat I can look at here is that relating to trainer form in races of this “kind”, over the last 10 years. If you had followed Tim Easterby over that period of time, backing every runner in mile handicaps at Thirsk, you’d have done your brains, a level stake loss of £241.71

However, Roger Fell is 8-62 with runners in such races, and has turned a profit of exactly £58.

He trains LA TRINIDAD, currently around the 9/1 mark and purely for Podcast purposes only, I’ll say 20/80 that one.

Let’s see how I do here in 2035, if I not in a vase on the mantelpiece.

RON – LA TRINIDAD – 20/80

SEAN – THUNDER RUN

7.40pm Hamilton

Have we ever covered an evening race before? This one is named after SOBA….and for those that do not remember the exploits of that brilliant mare, you can watch back her 1982 Stewards Cup win on YouTube….I did before we came on.

I’m pretty much in the same boat as I was with that last race as we’ve only had one previous running of this.

Funny isn’t it, last season we were mostly working with very soft/heavy ground this week….everywhere….but now they are watering like crazy…even Bath!...to keep it safe.

Only six are bothering to turn up now and the two trainers I’d earmarked as having a + level stake profit, Kevin Ryan and Julie Camacho, have both decided not to bother.

The favourite is JORDAN ELECTRICS, who must have been sipping Lorenzo’s Oil all season because he’s just kept winning….and winning….and winning. Since May I believe he has improved 20+lb, at the age of eight….there is hope for me yet!

He has raced 70 times, won or placed in 28 of them….15 wins….26 runs at this track, won or placed in 16 of them….eight wins.

I won’t be betting until I’ve finalised my Ratings tomorrow but right now, I’d not hesitate in putting him up as my Podcast selection.

RON – JORDAN ELECTRICS

SEAN – DARK VINTAGE

10.42pm Saratoga

This put a smile on my face….ish. I know you love your international racing and, to be fair, when we were digging for gold in Australia during covid, I enjoyed the research involved….even if I fell flat on my backside.

I don’t know American tracks, some names are familiar, more often than not for the wrong reasons, and it’s one of those names my eye is drawn to here.

Bob Baffert.

Eight of the last 10 winners were 4-y-o’s, nine of the last 10 winners carried 8st 12lb, and Baffert trained the winner of this two years running 2019, 2020, with 4-y-o’s carrying 8st 12lb….and they were trading short (one went of favourite), so his NATIONAL TREASURE is my “guess” here. He is the highest rated throughbred in America right now so maybe not so much of a guess?

Whatever wins this gets a “win and your in” ticket to the Breeders Cup

National Treasure is the top-ranked Thoroughbred in the weekly NTRA top thoroughbred poll based on his victories in the Met Mile at Saratoga in June and the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January at Gulfstream. Between those wins, he was fourth in the Saudi Cup (G1). National Treasure is the leading money winner in the Whitney field and one of only two Grade 1 winners in this race and will most likely go off favourite.

If an older horse is going to scoop the near half a million first prize, it’s most likely going to be BRIGHT FUTURE.

BRIGHT FUTURE won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year and is one of the few Grade 1 winners in the Whitney.

RON – NATIONAL TREASURE

SEAN – NATIONAL TREASURE

OMMS

I am selecting three from the Goodwood Festival

FRENCH DUKE – 13/2 > 4/1 > 10/3 > 7/2 - WON 16/5
BLUE PRINCE - 12/1 > 10/1 (SOLID) - WON 14/1
MR CHAPLIN - 12/1 > 8/1 – WON 10/1

Something for the weekend

RON – LA TRINIDAD – 20/80

SEAN – THUNDER RUN

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Today's Podcast is choc full of racing opinion, five races tomorrow discussed and we've a twist forecast suggestion in the big handicap at Ascot....you just never know!

Below, for our hard of hearing readers, is the text of my side of our conversation regarding the races tomorrow, plus our "Something For The Weekend" suggestions....Sean has gone off-piste yet again!

Saturday Racing

1.50pm Ascot

A juvenile Group 3 race that sees three of the front four on the tissue having raced once, won once and a favourite that has raced twice, lost twice.

It is then 10/1 bar that quartet, with that favourite strong in the market, 2/1 > 13/8….but already 0-2 trip, 0-1 track.

Three of the last five winners have returned SP’s of 25/1, 15/2 & 16/1….the unexpected does happen!

This has a much punting appeal for me as a bushtucker trial….in fact, goats eyeball for lunch, or a bet here? Something to ponder.

Seriously though, history dictates that we want to be working with a horse with at least two runs on the board and trading no bigger than 16/1 so for me, the winner is one of:

SIMMERING
AVIATION TIME
BETTY CLOVER

The years 2014 – 2017 inclusive saw four consecutive winning favourites, with the second favourite winning in 2018….but like I say, we’ve seen a big swing in the last five years towards bigger priced horses and I’m thinking that if all eight go to post, you could do a lot worse than have a 20/80 BETTY CLOVER here.

Only beaten just over five lengths in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, and her trainer, Eve Johnson-Houghton is 5-19 with her runners in this type of race, at Ascot, over the last 10 years….she also has a whopping great level £1 stake profit of £28.70 so the 14/1, if all eight go to post and we don’t get a deluge of rain (we do not want the word soft in the going description), we should get a run for the dongs.

RON – BETTY CLOVER – 20/80

SEAN - SIMMERING

2.25pm Ascot

I got the winner of this last year….don’t ask me how because it wouldn’t fit my stats and trends now!

Another Group 3 and historically, the 3-y-o’s just edge it.

No winning favourite since 2015 and in the intervening period we’ve seen three winners returning SP’s of 14/1, 11/1 and 12/1, but it feels like things have calmed down again now….last two winners both coming home @ 10/3

This all suggests the winner is one of DEVOTED QUEEN or SOPRANO….close to being 3/1 joint favourites as I type.

DEVOTED QUEEN is unbeaten in three starts and I have no idea how good she is but her trainer, Charlie Appleby has a stunning record in this kind of race here….10 winners from 62 entries, bringing home a level stake profit of +16.28pts

With so little to go on, that’s the main stat I apply.

RON – DEVOTED QUEEN

SEAN -

3.00pm Ascot

Welcome to my world! A magical 18 runner handicap and the horse I punted @ 22/1 for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, ORAZIO, has been punted from 13/2 > 9/2f since this market opened. Should have won….didn’t….beaten a head and a neck finishing like a bullet.

What does Profiling say?

Eight of the last 10 winners have been aged four (4), or five (4), so they make up my first shortlist:

MAKE ME KING
ORAZIO
METAL MERCHANT
BILLYJOH
DIVINE LIBRA
DANCING MAGIC
AALTO
NEW IMAGE
EMINENCY

Weight ranges next…..I want nothing in my next list carrying more than 9st 7lb and I may need to revisit this if I have a couple to split at the end. Nothing, in the last decade, has won carrying more so:

METAL MERCHANT
BILLYJOH
DIVINE LIBRA
DANCING MAGIC
AALTO
NEW IMAGE
EMINENCY

I have lost ORAZIO there…so be it.

Down to seven and next I’ll pick my way through the returned SP’s of out last 10 winners. For such a competitive race the fact that four of the last nine winners went off favourite, another returned second favourite so, the market tends to call it right. We have had four winners coming home at 33/1, 50/1, 20/1, 16/1 (last year), but it something like that wins tomorrow, I lose money because I’m looking front five on the tissue. That would have netted me six of the last nine winners:

BILLYJOH
AALTO
NEW IMAGE

Three left and that include my favourite horse of 2024 so far, AALTO. A top rated 40/1 runner up in May and I managed to nab a little 33/1 before he won the Bunbury Cup recently….I’ll be dutching, for sure as all three are drawn right….you need a double figure box to race from, only two of the last 10 winners raced from a stall lower than 11.

Which for my Profiling selection? I’m going with BILLYJOH. It’s that revisit to the weights again and as seven of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st, and he is the only one doing so tomorrow….he’s “it”.

RON – BILLYJOH – 20/80

SEAN – AALTO – E.W.

3.15pm York

A great shame only four now go to post for £76k worth of first prize money. It’s pointless my telling you that the winner is usually front three on the tissue…but it is….ditto my telling you the winner usually returns a single figure price, as they all trade single numbers.

I cannot profile, or apply stats accurately to such races and for sure we’ll see a false pace.

What I’ll tell you is, I have been waiting to see PASSENGER race again since he won that Chester Group 2 very easily back in May and here he’s trading the 6/4….and supported…favourite.

Someone asked me for a Tote 10 To Follow Banker when they were making their entries and I said, “PASSENGER”

I hope tomorrow proves me right and he’s my selection based on nothing other than pure bias.

RON – PASSENGER

SEAN - PASSENGER

3.40pm Ascot

The big one and by crikey we’ve seen some proper races in the past. It’s getting easier now though as the three year olds taking this in are not “all that”.

I’ll not be here long with this one as I have to work as is usual.

I’m looking for a horse older than three, no older than five, weight ranges do not apply so I have to work with the tissue next and with seven of the last 10 winners returning an SP of 7/2 or shorter….class generally comes to the fore in these races….it’s AUGUSTE RODIN.

He fits the trends spot on and if he turns up…never guaranteed with him….he’ll win tomorrow.

RON – AUGUSTE RODIN

SEAN - SUNWAY E.W.

OMMS

MARITIME LADY – 5/1 > 3/1 > 7/2 – WON 11/4
MADAME DE SVIGNE – 6/1 > 5/2 > 7/2 – WON 9/2
SIR GABRIAL – 12/1 > 9/1 > 7/1 – WON 11/2

Something for the weekend

RON – BILLYJOH – 20/80

SEAN – SEAGOLAZO (Chester 2-10pm, Saturday)

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This week we discuss several racing topics, including the BHA job (who wants that?!), the record breaking South African jockey, the cracking good deal offered by Ballinrobe and then see about finding you some weekend winners, with Sean again looking away from these shores for his Something For The Weekend.

Below you have the text of my side of the conversation regarding the four races discussed.

Saturday Racing

Sandown 2.40pm

A Listed sprint, eight runners, All aged three so age and weight ranges are pretty much null and void.

Nine of the last 10 winners were front four on the tissue, and I’d be happy suggesting our winner is one of:

ADAAY IN DEVON
FLORA OF BERMUDA
NO HALF MEASURES
GRACEFUL THUNDER

I’m finding it impossible to gauge how good or otherwise NO HALF MEASURES is….only one run on turf, and a soft ground Class 4 handicap. Runs off the same weight as FLORA OF BERMUDA, who is officially 11lb the better horse. I cannot have the Richard Hughes horse on my mind here….might prove me a mile wrong but I’ll take that on the chin if it wins here.

This will be the lowest grade FLORA OF BERMUDA has raced in for a good while now. The form figures might look uninspiring but those have been gained in Group races, and she went off favourite to win the Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket last October.

ADAAY IN DEVON is the clear tissue favourite and probably deserves to be the jolly having won six and placed second in 10 of her 13 starts. Raced mainly at this level but did run second in a Commonwealth Cup Trial race, Group 3, at Ascot in May.

I think it’s between the front two in the current betting and favour the Balding runner. It could be Listed level is where she wins her races and Andrew Balding is firing in winners left right and centre at the minute. Oisin Murphy too is on fire fight now, 17 winners from 73 rides in the last two weeks (23% strike rate), and I’m going to nail mu colours to her mast.

RON – FLORA OF BERMUDA

SEAN – NIGHTEYES - E.W.

York 3.00pm

An Ebor trial, just six going to the start. The only runner with winning form at this trip is REAL DREAM so no guesswork there, as there is for the tissue favourite RELENTLESS VOYAGER, who has only been ridden by Oisin Murphy since he turned three. Tomorrow Hayley Turner takes over and Oisin goes to Sandown….I’m taking the hint!

Balding, who trains this one, might be in brilliant form right now but he has sent six for this previously and only had a pair place.

This usually goes to an older horse, aged 5+ and, it also generally goes to a horse trading front two on the tissue. Nine of the last 11 running’s have done so and the only qualifier is the distance winner REAL DREAM.

Not a race I’d get overly involved in but I’m with REAL DREAM

RON – REAL DREAM

SEAN - KLONDIKE

Chester 3.20pm

Only five previous running’s off this race so not a snowball in hells chance of Profiling it so I’m going to use a lucky pin, cross fingers, lay my prayer mat out….and “guess”.

We have 14 runners, all aged three, heading down to the start and so my first port of call is weight ranges….I can tell you now though that trying to work out 3-y-o handicaps is akin to knitting treacle.

The last three winners all carried 9st 6lb or more and the only runner here trying to repeat that trend is the current favourite, WITNESS STAND….drawn in 12….all five previous winners have been sat front five on the tissue but only one winning favourite.

I’d usually be ruling out horses drawn 10 and up….but stall 10 won last season! Prior to that though, the winners came from stalls 4, 8, 3, 2 and I’m looking at that tin of treacle and thinking, give it up now.

I am going to revert to something that worked once or twice last year, that being trainer form both in the race we worked on, and all race adding that stat to the draw bias/market position.

Doing this points me to BLUE PRINCE. Trainer David Evans has run just 14 horses here, in races of this kind….won with five, producing a superb +12.23pts level stake profit.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who is fast overtaking Franny Norton as the “go to” jockey for Chester. Drawn in stall four….perfect. The horse has won or placed in five starts on turf and at 8/1, he’s my 20/80

RON – BLUE PRINCE – 20/80

SEAN – BURDETT – E.W.

York 3.35pm

A 19 runner all 3-y-o hándicap…well, good luck with this one!

We have had winners returning SP’s of 20/1, 25/1 and 20/1 in the last nine years….and only one winning favourite, and that was back in 2013.

Six of the last 10 winners carried less than 9st…..but three of the last four winners carried more.

We had six consecutive winners drawn low….7, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3….but the last two winners 19, 20

I cannot make head nor tail of this using Profiling so all I’m going to do is work with whatever Clive Cox is running….six previous runners in this, won it in 2022 and has placed with another.

He saddles JAMES’S DELIGHT, has booked Ryan Moore for it has a nice low draw (if it reverts back to type!), and the 9/1 is a 20/80 price.

Cox is another trainer in blindingly good form right now, four of his last 10 runners have visited the winner’s enclosure and the bloke on board is no negative!

RON – JAMES’S DELIGHT – 20/80

SEAN – ZIGGYS CONDOR – E.W.

THE BEST OF THE OMMS

BEAUTIFUL CROWN – 20/1 > 9/2 – WON 9/4
SIR BENEDICT – 14/1 > 7/1 – WON 8/1
CHARMING WHISPER – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 7/2

Something for the weekend

RON – REAL DREAM

SEAN - TAMFANA (French Oaks, Sunday)

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A cracking good hour of racing chat, with four selections each for the racing on Saturday.

The text of my side of the conversatiuon below, for our hard of hearing members.

Haydock 1.50pm

Eight going to post and looking at the ages of the last 10 winners, you would not want to be betting on anything other than horses aged 5+….they have won nine of the last 10 running’s and that means one of:

LIVE IN THE DREAM
COMMANCHE FALLS
KORKER
PINK CRYSTAL
TEES SPIRIT

….wins this.

Weight ranges don’t come into play in the way they would in a handicap and so I’ll look at past market positions next and seven of the last eight winners returned SP’s of 5/1 or shorter.

I didn’t think this would take long to sort out and here I have just one qualifier….LIVE IN THE DREAM, trained by Adam West, who is what I’d call a proper “shrewdie”

Since this market opened this horse is 6/4 > E, fits the age profile perfectly, being a five year old….the last two winners were and, four of the last seven.

This is a Listed race and here we have a horse that won last year’s Group 1 Nunthorpe, before going to the Breeders Cup and finishing fourth in the Group 2 Woodford Stakes.

He’ll do for me.

RON – LIVE IN THE DREAM

SEAN – LIVE IN THE DREAM

Beverley 2.05pm

Oh joy of joys….15 juveniles to work with and this is like chucking dice up the table!

My only port of call for such races is the market, then to look for clues away from my normal criteria such as trainers that perhaps target it etc, draw bias in years gone by on ground like that they’ll face tomorrow.

I want to work with the front four on the tissue….they have won the last nine of these and they are:

MAW LAM
OVER SPICED
STORM CALL
AVIATION TIME
LARCHILL LASS

We have a pair trading joint fourth favourite as I type.

Now I’ll employ what is a definite draw bias at Beverley in such races, when the ground rides as it will tomorrow, unless they get a monsoon!

You need to be drawn low and that is shored up by the fact that six of the last eight winners came from a draw no higher than six. Only MAW LAM and OVER SPICED make the cut. It is a plus to arrive having won last time out, and both do that.

I would happily dutch that pair but for Podcast purposes I’ll put up OVER SPICED. My reason for doing that is because on debut MAW LAM missed the break and if that is a trait then from that one stall he is going to need loads of luck. OVER SPICED raced on the speed last time out and the horse he beat, MILITRAY GIRL, franked that form at Catterick on May 31st

I’ll have OVER SPICED 20/80 at around 15/2 as I type.

It is not a race to get the mortgage on, that’s for sure!

RON – OVER SPICED – 20/80

SEAN – MAW LAM

Haydock 3.00pm

A Group 3 and 14 fillies currently set to line up for a decent enough £48k first prize.

Consisting of 10 x 4-y-o’s and 4 x 5-y-o’s, I’d suggest we concentrate our attentions to the younger horses, not just because of those numbers but seven of the last 10 winners, and four of the last five winners, were aged four.

I’m not going to rattle off a 10 runner shortlist, and neither will I cover weight ranges because they all carry 9st 2lb….but I will say we want to be with a four year old, sitting front three on the tissue. We have two to work with:

SEA THEME
SAPPHIRE SEAS

Very nautical!

The rest is easy. SEA THEME is trained by William Haggas, who has trained the last two winners of this….SEA LA ROSA and SEA SILK ROAD….both by SEA THE STARS, as is SEA THEME….so you can “sea” where I’m coming from!

On official figures SEA THEME is 6lb wrong with SAPPHIRE SEAS and the latter opened favourite. However, they have flip flopped and the Haggas runner is now 13/2 > 9/2, the Godolphin runner 9/2 > 11/2

It does all point to SEA THEME

RON – SEA THEME

SEAN – LADY BOBA (E.W.)

Haydock 3.35pm

The last two winners of this, JUMBY and POGO take part again and I see JUMBY has been punted 20/1 > 12/1, POGO 10/1 > 7/1. When they took this race, both had been given two runs to clear the tubes and tomorrow they arrive having raced twice this season. Plotted might be a word to use.

However, POGO is now an 8-y-o and the last of that age to win this was PERTINENT in 2014 @ 33/1…I can see POGO placing, but not winning.

JUMBY is a six year old, and they have taken two of the last four running’s.

I want to be with horses aged 4, 5 or six, but again, with this being a Group race I cannot apply weight ranges so it’s the market again I’m turning to….and with seven of the last eight winners sitting front three on the tissue, and with us having seen three winning favourites in the last four years (and five in the last seven), I have to look to work with:

NOBLE DYNASTY
WITCH HUNTER
FLIGHT PLAN

The current favourite is NOBLE DYNASTY, but he arrives having won a handicap. The other two contested the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and that race also produced last year’s winner, JUMBY.

NOBLE DYNASTY might well prove to be much better than a handicapper, but I have to go with WITCH HUNTER, who ran third at Newbury, is officially rated 2lb lower than FLIGHT PLAN, but gets 5lb here tomorrow. He finished 27 lengths in front of FLIGHT PLAN that day but I reckon there will be nothing like that in it tomorrow.

Only two of the last 10 winners have been drawn higher than five, the last five drawn 3, 3, 7, 5, 1….that also gives a positive to WITCH HUNTER, drawn 1, whilst FLIGHT PLAN has 8 to content with.

RON – WITCH HUNTER

SEAN – POGO

OMMS PICK OF THE POPS!

TREFOR – 10/1 > 11/2 > 5/1 – WON 7/2
TROJAN TRUTH – 10/1 > 11/2 > 5/1 – WON 7/2
EDGEWATER DRIVE – 40/1 > 14/1 > 11/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2

Something for the weekend

RON – SEA THEME

SEAN – STUNNING PEACH - 12-35PM SHA TIN - SATURDAY

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BHA to permit raceday surface switch

For me proof positive that racing is not about punters. Suppose you had spent the 24 to 48 hours previous assessing those races….as you and I do….created work based on soft/heavy ground and sending it out to those kind enough to subscribe for it, for it to then be swept into the bin but, those bets placed by our members (and ourselves), left hanging, with no redress for the punter.

I’m assuming all bets struck when the racing was taking place on turf stand? The bookmakers will not declare them non-runners? Or has that little gem not even been debated?

Kentucky Derby - why no stewards enquiry?

I have not heard anyone, other than the jockey on the rider of the horse affected, say nothing was out of order….the overwhelming opinion is, the stewards over there got it badly wrong….they didn’t even call an inquiry?

For those that didn’t see it, two short heads decided 1st, 2nd and 3rd placings. One of the craziest things I have ever seen though was the rider of the runner up, appeared to get hold of the reigns of the horse he beat into third…by a short head….and nobody with the power to do so, said anything, or did anything.

He should have been demoted to third without a doubt….bit like getting a red card in football, if you even touch a player during an argument. You are gone…end of.

Who knows if that actually cost the Japanese runner the race?

They never asked for an inquiry because in Japan, they never do. To polite for their own good, if you ask me!

What was your take on it?

Does Willie Mullins winning the trainers championship here simply highlight further the state of British racing?

Now, before anyone says, “there he goes, bashing Mullins”….nothing of the sort.

My problem is with British racing and I’m on record as saying I honestly believe the powers that be are out to get rid of NH racing in this country.

How can a trainer…from anywhere in the world…not just Ireland….be crowned champion having saddled 27 winners?

All that has been proven is something I have been saying for years now….we have so few top class horses here that Mullins could have won the Championship saddling 25 winners. If all he has to do is send his Grade 1 horses over to win our Grade 1 races….job done.

Ian Renton the head honcho at Cheltenham recently said that our trainers need 40-50 horses rated 150+ to become competitive again. But because of our NH situation, no owner buying those horses will send one of those to a British trainer.

So, well done Willie, on having by far the best stable of horses on the planet and being brilliant enough to train them to win the races they do, but look at the situation objectively and you must come away wondering how long this code has left in Britain.

Both Guineas winners had only ever won previously on all weather tracks - the shape of things to come?

First time ever that has happened. I did recall a Barry Hills trained winner had taken the 1000Gns having raced just once on Southwell sands (2009, GHAYAATH), but looking at the results we’ve seen at Chester this week, horses winning the trials all started their careers on sand, and it very much appears to be a trend becoming established. Not only the all weather angle but, also these horses not having raced as juveniles.

Makes the ante-post markets completely unplayable because no matter what a juvenile does now, who is going bet the 2000Gns, Derby, 1000Gns, Oaks before we’ve seen the racing at Southwell in the January!

RACES

LINGFIELD 2-25

Seven fillies going to post and what I like about these races is when it comes to Profiling….or Scribblings….it’s a shortened process by virtue of the fact they are all 3-y-o’s, carrying the same weight and so I can go straight to market and see how well found our last 10 winners have been.

SHERBET LEMON won this @ 28/1 in 2021 but three of the last four winners returned SP’s of 7/4f, evens favourite and last year ETERNAL HOPE bolted in @ 9/4.

Eight of the last nine winners were sitting front four on the tissue and that means one of:

DANIELLE
TREASURE
RUBIES ARE RED
YOU GOT ME

….wins the race.

Six of the last 10 winners arrived having won last time out and of that quartet just DANIELLE and TREASURE make the cut.

Four of the last five winners had already been racing this season and so of that pair it has to be DANIELLE.

Trained by the Gosden’s and that’s no bad thing as John Gosden win it in 2019 and 2020

RON – DANIELLE

SEAN – TREASURE – E.W.

LINGFIELD 3-00

Nine colts coming here for this.

As with the Oaks Trial we ignore age/weights and cut straight to the market.

Eight of the last 10 winners were in the front three on the tissue and in the last decade only one winner has returned bigger than 7/1.

The front three right now are:

DEFIANCE
ILLINOIS
THE EUPHRATES

Two trained by Aiden O’Brien who invariably sends a good one for this. In 2019 he won it with ANTHONY VAN DYKE who then went on to win the Derby

Ryan Moore has opted to ride ILLINOIS, which will be music to the ears of Post Racing members.

Aiden’s record in the last 10 years of this race reads, 10 runners, three winners, one placing.

DEFIANCE is trained by Roger Varian and in the last 24 hours has been backed into joint favourite 3/1 > 5/2 but he has 5lb to find with ILLINOIS, who I feel will be better on the surface he’ll get tomorrow than he was when beaten at odds-on, on seasonal debut, on ground that was barely raceable.

RON – ILLINOIS

SEAN – IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN – 18/1 – E.W.

LINGFIELD 3-35

This Group 3 is nothing like as cut and dried if “ANCIENT” history repeats itself tomorrow. Four of the last nine winners have returned SP’s of 16/1, 16/1, 10/1 and 11/1.

The older horses have dominated across the last decade, eight of those last 10 winners aged either four, or five. Plus, whilst we did have funky results between 2014 and 2016 inclusive, recent trends point to a four of five year old trading front three on the tissue, and trading a single figure price.

The only qualifier is REMARQUEE who makes seasonal debut having undergone a wind-op and if official ratings mean diddly squat, she should win tomorrow.

Officially 10lb clear of the second favourite, a three year old, and with no three year old winning this since 2016 I’m confident….ish….that REMARQUEE wins.

RON – REMARQUEE

SEAN - REMARQUEE

ASCOT 2-40

I thought I would throw in mission impossible….the Victoria Cup at Ascot. I will produce Ratings for this tomorrow, but I’ll see if I can Profile the winner here.

A simple enough task, unravelling a 22 runner handicap, eh!

Age groupings first and I want nothing on my shortlist other than horses aged four, or five….they have taken the last nine running’s between them. I’ll not reel off the names….hundreds of them….so weight ranges, then market, and I’ll scoop out the horses most likely to succeed.

Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 8st 7lb and 9st 8lb and I still have a shortlist here of nine horses….they are:

RAMAZAN
STREETS OF GOLD
MOSTABSHIR
THE WIZARD OF EYE
MERLIN THE WIZARD
ARABIAN STORM
MUSTAJAAB
LONDONER
PEARLE D’OR

Market positions next and before I go there I can tell you that in the last decade we’ve seen winners returned 25/1, 12/1, 10/1, 20/1, 11/1, 16/1, 11/1 so like I said, a simple task!

Thing is, despite those SP’s, seven of the last nine winners were front six on the tissue but, I will rule out the favourite as only one has won this in the period of time I’ve worked with, just one other finishing first three:

THE WIZARD OF EYE
MERLIN THE WIZARD
PEARLE D’OR

Three for a dutch. MOSTABSHIR trades favourite right now but tomorrow it might not….the perils of Profiling 24 hours ahead of an event.

Nine of the last 10 winners raced from stall 13 or higher and of that trio only PERLE D’OR gets a thumbs up, racing from 14.

I’ll put that up as a 20/80.

RON – PERLE D’OR – 20/80

SEAN – MOSTABSHIR – E.W.

Best of the OMMS

VOYAGE – 50/1 > 16/1 – WON 28/1
ROYAL DRESS – 25/1 > 16/1 – WON 33/1
RUBY’S PROFIT – 20/1 > 5/1 – WON 10/1

Something for the Weekend

RON – Four trebles the four selections I have come up with.

SEAN – LINGFIELD 1-50 – PEKING OPERA – 33/1 (E.W.)

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A strange mix this week as Sean and I discuss the Grand National and, whether it is now just another long distance steeplechase handicap. We natter about affordability checks and open banking, we give some grief to racing starting at 10-00am, and ask what can be done about the Jockey Club reducing financial input by £1.5m

If you listen via Apple iTunes you can now read a full transcript of the entire Podcast so our hard of hearing members miss nothing.

Below is my side of the racing chatter....best of luck tomorrow!

Saturday Racing

Newbury 1.30pm

I’m enjoying my racing this month, Aintree was excellent, and watching the flat season finally springing into life this week has been brilliant. It does help that we’ve been betting on winners though and hopefully we can get rocking and rolling in the Podcasts now, too. Not sure we’ll beat or even equal last season’s 100+ points profit from 13 Podcasts, but we’ll give it a shot.

A nice 10 runners Group race to start with and I’ve already decided we can only work with four and five year olds as they’ve taken nine of the last 10 John Porters so, my first shortlist contains:

AL QAREEM
ALSAKIB
ARREST
CHESSPIECE
PEKING OPERA
SALT BAY

The weight ranges don’t offer much help, as tends to be the case with Group races so I’m looking now at what the markets said about the last 10 winners.

Seven of the last eight winners were in the front three on the tissue and of the six in that first list I’m happy to go forward with:

ARREST
AL QAREEM

Splitting them must simply be a case of applying official Ratings, and weight carried here. ARREST is officially 2lb superior to AL QAREEM but AL QAREEM has to give 3lb to ARREST and it’s now down to which arrives fitter for seasonal debut.

RON – ARREST

SEAN - ARREST

Newbury 2.05pm

Another Group race but just six going to post and all three year olds making seasonal debut. Which have trained on? Your guess is as good as mine. This is why I use April for “Sighters” only.

We also have a horse in here that arrives unbeaten in five, FOLGARIA, but how will the Italian form transfer to Newbury? Four wins at San Siro? I don’t know much about that place other than it’s right handed with a four furlong straight.

I can tell you with absolute certainty that a 3-y-o carrying 9st 2lb wins it and with the markets the only viable guide open to me I’m going to suggest the winner is front two on the tissue because seven of the last 10 winners were so:

RELIEF RALLY
REGAL JUBILEE

Once again splitting them comes down to official ratings and the weight they carry tomorrow. They race of level weights but RELIEF RALLY is officially more than half a stone the better horse so, taking on trust both have trained on, are ready to go, only RELIEF RALLY can win this.

FOLGARIA is rated just 2lb behind RELIEF RALLY and 6lb better than REGAL JUBILEE but we tend to do this in this country….we let foreign form fly under the radar so she might well be the one for the forecast….or would be in the middle of June, when we know everyone is fit and flying.

RON – RELIEF RALLY

SEAN - ELMALKA

Ayr 2.25pm

A Champion Hurdle, that’s also a Handicap….it’ll be more competitive than the one at Cheltenham but also a tad more difficult to work out, too.

The most dominant age grouping would be 5, 6, and 7….nine of the last 10 winner’s they’d have found you.

That only rules out three of the 15 runners so I’ll not bore you with a 12 runner “shortlist” and I’ll look at how the weights have worked, marry them up to the 12 left and see what we have then.

To be honest, they are all over the shop. We have seen winners in the last nine years carrying 9st 11lb, and everything in between 10st 4lb – 11st 6lb popping up.

So I’m going to suggest we apply the market SP banding here and with eight of the last 10 winners sitting front five on the tissue I’ll pluck that five out, then look to shoehorn them into age/weight stats.

L’EAU DU SUD
FAVOUR AND FORTUNE
BIALYSTOK
RUBAUD
AFADIL
FIRST STREET
FLORIDA DREAM
WESTPORT COVE

I have four sharing fifth spot @ 12/1….all aged 5, 6, or 7….two trained by Willie Mullins, who is here trying to win the British trainers title with less than 30 winners here this season…..he currently has 19 winners and that tells you all you need to know about the state of our NH racing.

I digress….so I cannot apply age or weight trends to those market positions, and I was going to suggest we utilise the returned SP’s of our last 10 winners but my cut off point would be 12/1….and they are all 12/1 or shorter.

Quite simply, I cannot get it to where I could name a horse, using the criteria I apply.

I cannot recall finding myself in this position with a handicap before….eight qualifiers and nowhere else to go.

The two best supported horses are the Mullins trained BIALYSTOK 16/1 > 13/2 since the market opened, with the Alan King trained FAVOUR AND FORTUNE 10/1 > 5/1….but they have saddled a combined 10 runners for this and only had one each hitting the frame.

All I can say is, check the OMMS tomorrow because right now I couldn’t possibly bet here.

RON – NO SELECTION

SEAN – L’EAU DU SUD

Newbury 2.40pm

The Greenham, a Group 3 that once saw Post Racing members in the parade ring as owners when HIDDON COIN (now known as HEARTILY WINS after being sold), gave them a great day out….even if he did finish last to the horse that next season ran a three length third to KINGMAN in the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville, having been beaten a short head in it, in 2013, by MOONLIGHT CLOUD.

Great days they were and as a group of people, we really have enjoyed some amazing times as owners. I’d love to get back to that level again.

So, tomorrow we have 11 three year olds, all carrying 9st 2lb, and I can only apply previous market positions to my selection process.

The winner of the last 10 renewals had nine of them sitting front four on the tissue and if that stays the same then our winner is one of:

ZOUM ZOUM
ARMY ETHOS
BALLYMOUNT BOY
MISTER SKETCH

Looking at the returned SP’s of those winners tells me that only three have landed odds bigger than 3/1, and we’ve also had five winning favourites.

If ZOUM ZOUM has a) trained on and b), Beckett has him spot on, then he’ll win this race.

Right now Beckett is running a 63%RTF and four of his eight runners in the last fortnight have won, or come second.

I’ll trust him to have this one right.

RON – ZOUM ZOUM

SEAN – ARMY ETHOS – E.W.

Ayr 3.35pm

The Scottish Grand National….and Mullins trains three of the front four on the tissue. Four of the last six winners have been trading front two on the tissue, the last two winners returning favourite.

Age groupings first and we will work only with horses aged seven, eight, or nine, which rules out the Mullins trained six year old favourite, MACDERMOTT.

Only seven of that age group has tried to win this in the last decade, four placing…not a winner amongst them.

I’m again going to refrain for popping a list of 20 up and reading them out for you because that only drops six of this field from the next calculation…weight ranges.

We have had three winners carrying 10st 1lb or less in the last 10 years but five of the last seven carried 10st 12lb or more, and only one winner has carried more than 11st 3lb, and because I want to offer up a name here (still won’t be betting, mind!), let’s do that 10st 12lb to 11st 3lb weight range, with only horses aged 7, 8, or 9 coming forward:

ELVIS MAIL
BEAUPORT

Only two of the last 10 winners returned an SP bigger than 25/1 and ELVIS MAIL, who opened 12/1, is now 50/1 so I can only think I say 20/80 BEAUPORT, who is at least 4-12 on the ground as currently forecast and around 16/1 as I type.

Like I say, I’ll not be betting here, my own efforts now solely invested in the flat racing.

RON – BEAUPORT – 20/80

SEAN – BROKEN HALO – E.W.

OMMS

Three I consider to be amongst the best of the OMMS this week:

JAYARBE – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/1
ZAIN NIGHTS – 12/1 > 8/1 > 13/2 – WON 9/2
TAYALA – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 17/2

Something for the weekend

RON – 10P TREBLE MY THREE SELECTIONS AT NEWBURY – ARREST, RELIEF RALLY, ZOUM ZOUM

SEAN – WINCANTON (SUNDAY) - MIRABAD

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Sean Trivass and I have been chewing the fat over several topics this week, including, are we watching the death throes of NH racing in Britain, have we seen the last of Constitution Hill? If the financial checks being imposed on punters that bet online only, and punters can bet in betting shops, or on course, without financial checks, what is the point?

The main topic though is, why start the flat season....then stop it again? Virtually no flat racing since the Doncaster Lincoln meeting and three all weather cards per day?

TOPICS OF CONVERSATION

Are we witnessing the end of NH racing in Britain?

I had a look at the BHA Industry stats before we went live and found that between 2018 and 2022 jumps field sizes shrunk year on year, from 8.48 runners per race in 2018, to 7.73 per race in 2022 and, without a shadow of a doubt, that decline has continued.

In 2018 19.5% of all jumps races had fewer than six runners, in 2022 that had risen to 28%....I’d say it’s pushing 50% now, especially midweek.

In 2018 they had 55.5% of all NH races having eight or more runners….in 2022 it was down to 46.5% a near 10% drop/decline, call it what you like....these figures are BHA figures, so why has nobody taken any action?

I cannot think of a single positive innovation coming from BHA Headquarters. Everything has been tinkering around the edges, robbing Peter to pay Paul,

Four and five runner races have been the norm recently, we’ve seen meetings held with fewer than 20 horses at a meeting, one card opening with a walkover.

Should the flat season start later, with the Lincoln taking place the week after the Grand National?
If punters will be able to bet in betting shops and on racecourses, without the checks being imposed on online punters, what is the point?
Do you think we'll ever see Constitution Hill again?

KEMPTON 2-05

Nice to see a double figure field for a good race!

Nine of the last 10 running’s of this race have gone to 4-y-o’s and eight of the last 10 winners were also trading front two on the tissue so, it has to be one of:

MANY TEARS
CHOISYA

I’m looking now at the record of seasonal debutantes and both fit perfectly as four of the last five winners were but two things point me in the direction of MANY TEARS.

First, she’s trading favourite and five of the last 10 winners also went off the jolly.

Secondly, draw….MANY TEARS has five to break from, CHOISYA comes out of seven….and six of the last 10 winners were drawn five or lower….and three have actually won from stall five in three of the last eight years.

Not a lot to work with but everything I see points to MANY TEARS

RON – MANY TEARS

SEAN – MYSTIC PEARL – E.W.

CURRAGH 2-55

Given the current weather situation I felt we had to pad this out with a race at The Curragh, which will also be run on very heavy ground.

Plenty of back history to the race and as you might expect, it has been dominated in recent years by Aiden O’Brien, who has saddled four of the last six winners.

Since 2016 this has been won by five 4-y-o’s and two 5-y-o’s so they are my go to age groups.

Horses carrying 9st 5lb have won the last three renewals, and four of the last five so I’m looking for a four or five year old, carrying 9st 5lb

WHITE BIRCH
MAXUX
VILLAGE VOICE
CRYPTO FORCE
THE SHADOW LINGERS

I’m now looking at whether or not the market found these winners and with nothing bigger than 6/1 winning in the last nine years I’d suggest it did. I’ll take the following forward from here:

WHITE BIRCH
MAXUX

The only trainer to land this with the favourite in the last 10 years has been Aiden O’Brien, all four of his winners returned favourite but tomorrow he saddles GREENLAND, currently 6/1, having opened up 5/1 so, drifting.

MAXUX is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he won this with BUCKHURST back in 2020. I’ve seen this horse attracting support – 11/2 > 4/1 but he’d be a 20/80 only as he has never run on heavy, is 0-2 trip and 0-1 track.

RON – MAXUX – 20/80

SEAN – WHITE BIRCH

KEMPTON 3-15

A 14 runner marathon and only a race I’d ever get involved in for Podcast purposes. However, eight of these are proven over two miles and four of them have three ticks regarding surface, trip, and track.

If need be, I’ll use that profile, but we’ll start as usual with age grouping.

Horses aged four, five or six have taken nine of the last 10 running’s and my first shortlist consists of:

NOVEL LEGEND
SPIRIT MIXER
MANU ET CORDE
SOLENT GETAWAY
FLEURMAN
SPLENDENT
AQWAAM
GALACTIC JACK
DUTY OF CARE
SWEET FANTASY
CIRCUIT BREAKER

We only shift three of the 14 but we’ll now see if we can trim this back via weight ranges. The last three winners have carried the most weight of any in this last decade….9st 8lb, 9st 5lb, 9st 12lb….prior to 2021 we’d have been banking on a weight banding of between 8st 5lb – 9st 2lb….and with everything in here carrying more than 9st tomorrow, I cannot go near weight banding to create the next shortlist so, it’s the market that will come into play now.

Eight of the last nine winners sat front six on the tissue as the gates opened:

NOVEL LEGEND
SPIRIT MIXER
AQWAAM
DUTY OF CARE
SWEET FANTASY

Down to five “possibles”

Now we get down to working with stats/trends that come lower down my pecking order like, favourites…. here they run well, without winning as often as they might. Six of the last eight favourites have finished either 1st or 2nd but, only one has won.

So I drop SWEET FANTSY, the current 10/3 market topper

NOVEL LEGEND
SPIRIT MIXER
AQWAAM
DUTY OF CARE

Now, despite the trip, I’m looking at something that surprised me. Potential draw bias. Only two of the last 10 winners came from a stall higher than five, and five of the last seven winners were drawn 3, 3, 2, 1, 3….all sounds very “Chester!”

If I take the pair drawn no higher than five we work with:

NOVEL LEGEND (5)
SPIRIT MIXER (2)

Given the bias towards stalls 1,2,3 in the recent years I’ll put up SPIRIT MIXER as a 20/80….currently around the 8/1 mark and his trainer, Andrew Balding has the best level stake profit in this kind of race here….106 runners, producing 22 winners, and a profit of 45.71 points.

RON – SPIRIT MIXER – 20/80

SEAN – CIRCUIT BREAKER – E.W.

KEMPTON 4-55

I only have seven previous running’s of this race to work with, so I’ll work with what I have but don’t be expecting much!

Four year olds won four of the first five running’s of this race but the last two years have seen horses aged seven and five so who knows what happens tomorrow.

Weight ranges…forget it….the last four winners have carried 8st 4lb, 9st 6lb, 7st 12lb, 9st 4lb….the only clue there is that we have no clue!

Market position gives us an idea of sorts with five of the seven previous winners sat front three on the tissue so with the three currently occupying those positions all 4-y-o’s, all carrying more than 9st, I’d be happy dutching them….but then, you look at the form of horses arriving for this race and to date, not one of the previous seven winners arrived having won last time out….but all three that “qualify”, did….so now you understand why I need far more back history to a race to enable me to Profile it correctly.

I’m confident I’ll nail the winner in 2028 but right now….and purely for Podcast purposes only, I’ll bung up AZURE ANGEL as the pick because she’s 4-4 on all weather tracks, 2-2 on polytrack and is a CD winner.

RON – AZURE ANGEL

SEAN – KNEBWORTH – E.W.

OMMS

ANGEL’S CALL – 25/1 > 10/1 – WON 14/1

SHE’S CENTIMENTAL – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 7/1

MIGHTY NEBULA – 12/1 > 5/2 – WON 85/40

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – LUCKY 15 plus an E.W. ACCA

MANY TEARS
MAXUX
SPIRIT MIXER
AZURE ANGEL

SEAN – MYSTIC PEARL & KNEBWORTH

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Sean and I spend the best part of an hour discussing Cheltenham issues, and then looking for a Lucky 15, one selection per day, to have some fun with.

Sean has produced a life-changer....a whopping great 417,689/1 accumulator, whilst my own is a little more conservative.

SEAN

TUESDAY - TELLHERTHENAME (Supreme Novices Hurdle 25/1)
WEDNESDAY - QUEBECOIS (Bumper 20/1)
THURSDAY - MONKFISH (Stayers Hurdle 14/1)
FRIDAY - NASSALAM (Gold Cup 50/1)

RON

TUESDAY - THE GOFFER (Ultima 6/1)
WEDNESDAY - BRAZIL (Coral Cup 16/1)
THURSDAY - THEATRE MAN (Trustatrader Plate 5/1)
FRIDAY - QUAI DE BOURBON (Martin Pipe Conditional 4/1)

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Edwardstone is back – but can he spring an upset in the Champion Chase?

Not a snowball in hells chance. Connections know his number is up as far as Championship races are concerned, which was why they tried him over further at Kempton in January.

He won a four runner race in which two failed to finish, and he beat a 144 rated handicapper as easily as he should have done.

He’s officially rated 9lb lower than EL FABIOLO, an unbeaten 7-y-o who is still improving.

Third place money is anyone's come March but if the front two on the tissue stand up, that’s all he’s playing for.

Irish eyes are smiling – but are they really as all conquering over here as it sometimes seems (and we aren’t just talking Cheltenham)?

Very much depends on the grade of racing. Midweek they are having to send ordinary horses here because they cannot get a run over there.

But look at the quality meetings, starting with Cheltenham in November. There they won the Amateur jockeys Chase, the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle, and the Bumper.

New Years Day at Cheltenham....STUMPTOWN wins the Paddy Power Handicap, and BOB OLINGER took the Relkeel pulling a cart.

Festival Trials Day....CAPODANNO, LOSSIEMOUTH and NOBLE YEATS won the three biggest prizes on the day.

Low Sun – is three out of nine hurdles something punters should just accept or are there realistic alternatives?

That was obscene. You and I have been batting this one backwards and forwards every day this week....I’ve probably done your head in....but this simply cannot be right.

I pointed out to you how vital jumping is, in determining the result of a race. We had one run in Ireland this week and the winner won by just under four lengths.

RacingTV now has a system in place that tells them immediately how much jumping impacted on a result, and that Irish winner gained so much over the rest of the field at each hurdle...a total of 18 lengths that winner achieved during the entire race. So, if you take away his advantage....that being his ability to jump....you obtain a false result.

This race at Plumpton, that saw six hurdles removed, was won by a horse that had raced once and unseated his jockey. As a punter, I’ve looked at that race and seen hurdles as a potential negative in his case.

Put simply, there is enough that can go wrong during a race to give punters enough to worry about, than for them to then have 2/3rds of the obstacles removed rendering the race a total farce.

What do you then do with the form of that race? It’s worthless.

I’ve said before, it would take an IT expert 15 minutes to introduce a checkbox system onto an online betting slip, to offer a punter the option to void their bet in the event this kind of thing happens. I would check that box every single time because I work out how a race will be run, which horses can jump, which are iffy and will lose lengths during a race, and I’ve placed my bet long before the sun becomes an issue.

If I know I’ve backed a plodder, that jumps like a buck and makes three or four lengths on others in the race, at each fence, would I bet it to win a Bumper? That’s a rhetorical question....no answer required!

You received a communication, which we cannot discuss just yet, that raised more questions than it answered. But that is just typical of where we are right now.

By all means run the race if connections are happy for it to go ahead....they’ve paid money to enter, the owner has funded his trainer and staff getting there, so they might as well have a shot....but give punters the option not to let their bets ride, if that is what they choose to do.

What would they do with the Gold Cup if six or more fences had to come out because of low sun, and another two or three because of false ground on the take off or landing side?

Racecourses know the potential for low sun and the times the sun rises and sets are written in stone....work around those times?

The whole shooting match is run by amateurs right now.

I’d best stop there because I’ve steam coming from my ears now....

Saturday Racing

2.25pm Ascot

This should be a cracking good race, with 16 set to go to post.

It’s a race with tons of back history but my usual starting point of age groupings for Profiling is pretty much null. The last four winners have been aged 4, 5, 6, 8....I guess I’ll go with the six year olds because they have won four of the last eight but without a doubt, I could be binning the winner and placed horses here! The front three on the tissue are 7, 7, 5!

TEDDY BLUE
ISSAM
OSTEND
IRISH HILL
MOTHILL
IN THE AIR
ARQOOD

Weight ranges next and with seven of the last 10 winners carrying less than 11st (and the last four), I’d not want to go forward with horses carrying more than 10st 13lb....and would you believe it, they all fit!

Market position next then....the last 10 winners have been sited 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 0, 4, 6, 1, 1 on the tissue and so that suggests we need a fancied horse onside, certainly in the front four on the tissue and the only qualifier is IRISH HILL

He has won or placed in 11 of his 16 runs over hurdles, has raced at Ascot twice, finishing third, then winning this race last year.

Freddie Gingell takes over tomorrow and he has ridden the horse just once previously, beaten a head in a Fontwell Class 3 back in November 2022.

I’ll put him up as a 20/80 at the 8/1 he currently trades at.

Be worth checking the Ratings for this race tomorrow.

RON – IRISH HILL – 20/80

SEAN -

2.40pm Haydock

I'm loathe to even look at a race here because not a single one will be run as it should be on account of what will be bottomless ground.

I certainly would back a horse that has no winning form on heavy ground and I’d bin all trends because of it.

Last year this race was run on good to soft, and WAKOOL won @ 6/1....tomorrow he’s 20/1, and that’s because he is already 0-2 on heavy.

MARTHA BRAE....25/1 and 0-4 on heavy. Both RED RISK and the current favourite BOTOX HAS are 0-1 on heavy.

The two to look at....I’d only look, not bet....are SOUNDS RUSSIAN who is 2-2 on heavy....but only 1-5 trip....and BUTCH, who is 1-1 on heavy and, more significantly, 3-3 at the trip.

For Podcast purposes only I’ll say BUTCH but I would back it.

RON – BUTCH

SEAN -

3.00pm Ascot

Lovely....a 10 runner handicap and here experience definitely counts.

Six of the last 10 winners have been aged 10, three of the last four winners....aged 10....five of the last seven winners...aged 10.

So I’m looking for a 10 year old, in a 10 runner race and four of them fit that bill:

SHAN BLUE
RAPPER
DO YOUR JOB
TORN AND FRAYED

Weight ranges next and this requires a pretty broad brush stroke as I’d pin this down to horses carrying between 10st 7lb and 11st 10lb....five of the last nine carried 11st or more....but four of the last five carried less than 11st so all four come forward please...:

SHAN BLUE
RAPPER
DO YOUR JOB
TORN AND FRAYED

Market position should sort this out....eight of the last 10 winners were found in the front four on the tissue....but only one winning favourite and so I want horses sitting 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourite at the off....at the off....most important these days as the markets perform somersaults overnight these days but, right now the only qualifier is SHAN BLUE.

The Skelton’s won this with a 10 year old in 2021 and this horse went off just 10/1 to win the first of ALLAHO’s Ryanair Chases in 2022.

He then ran home second in the Betway Chase at Aintree and must have suffered an injury after that as he wasn’t seen again for 261 days. One run again on Boxing Day that same year and pulled up....then missing for 327 days.

Two runs earlier this season resulted in two more letter P’s before he visited Ascot in December, when they put cheekpieces on for the first time, over a trip on the short side for the horse but, he finished 3rd.

Back up in trip, pieces still on tomorrow....I’ll go 20/80

RON – SHAN BLUE 20/80

SEAN -

3.15pm Haydock

Another race I’ll not even attempt to Profile....nearly three and a half miles on that ground will see few getting home so my way in here would be, which have won on heavy, and which have won at this kind of trip.

I don’t even rated races over this kind of distance because so few can get home.

We have three names:

HIGHLAND HUNTER
IWILLDOIT
MY SILVER LINING

I'd drop the first named like a hot spud....not won a race of any description since 2021 so it’s one of IWILLDOIT, or MY SILVER LINING for again, Podcast purposes only.

HIGHLAND HUNTER opened 10/1....you can have 16’s now and I guess most punters see what I have seen.

One is an eight year old – MY SILVER LINING – and they have won four of the last 10.

IWILLDOIT is an 11 year old and they have won three of the last 10 but, he carries 12st and no winner I can find has carried that weight to victory in this race.

Has to be MY SILVER LINING based on what I have, but again, I won’t be betting here.

RON – MY SILVER LINING – PLACE ONLY

SEAN -

OMMS

KAMAXOS – 14/1 > 4/1 - WON 7/2
BRETNEY – 12/1 > 10/1 - WON 16/1
FOREST FAIRY – 7/1 > 9/4 - WON 10/3

Something for the weekend

RON – IRISH HILL & SHAN BLUE – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN -

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Racing is decimated this weekend so we've just had a racing chat, trying to put the world to rights and having a laugh.

Topics include the domination of Willie Mullins in Ireland. Is it strangling the game as suggested by a small breeder over there in today's Racing Post?

How tough was Hardy Eustace, a Champion when we had double figure fields in the Champion Hurdle and why do you think they paid that ridiculous sum of money for a hurdler, that has no value at stud once he finished racing? More money than sense?

No selections this weekend because two meeting have been abandoned and heavy....very heavy....ground at Newbury already has non-runners flying in!

Willie Mullins - is he REALLY the punters friend?

I doubt he actually sets out to be. You worked out the other day how much profit you would have got backing all of his last weekend.

I imagine that figure would apply to every year the DRF has been run….since 2018….and he has won 47 of the 105 races in those intervening years.

To my mind, the situation is farcical and as much as we moan and groan about racing here, at least it’s a bit more competitive than over there!

I mentioned to you this morning about the letter a small breeder had written to the Racing Post, and his concerns for people like himself, the smaller trainers, and those jockeys that never get on anything remotely decent.

Farewell to Hardy Eustace – a horse from the days when the Champion Hurdle was competitive

Couldn’t have put it better myself! A proper Cheltenham horse, too. Won what I think would be the Ballymore in 2003, went back there in 2004 and beat old ROOSTER BOOSTER in a photo finish, and I’d put him up on a racing chat room back then @ 33/1….and then returned in 2005 to beat that rogue HARCHIBALD, again in a photo finish, then rocked up 12 months later to finish third to BRAVE INCA, when 18 went to post.

Be lucky if we see five lining up this year.

3) Caldwell Potter for 740,000 Euros – is it any wonder the cries of “not enough prize money” fall on deaf ears?

At least we learned the Irish players ceiling! I believe Gordon Elliott was gutted to lose this one.

I think I saw a league table last week that said this horse is the highest rated novice either side of the Irish Sea and a syndicate of millionaires has decide to go for it.

As we know, money is no guarantee of success. I’ve seen a million pigeon catchers on the gallops flop on the track.

I remember JP buying GARDE CHAMPETRE for 530,000gns back in 2004. He was sent to Jonjo and after his first piece of work at Jonjo O’Neills, after Nicholls got shut, the work rider got off and said, “he paid how much for this thing? He’s useless!”….Jonjo said that whatever he did, he didn’t say that in front of JP.

Jonjo never got a win out of him, he was sent to Enda Bolger who sent him straight over a cheese wedge!

4) “On the whole, racing has always done better under a Labour government” - James Bethell this week – but is there any evidence to back up that assumption, or is the very thought a road to racing’s ruin?

I don’t know what he is basing that comment on….might be worth an ask and if he has facts and figures to back it up, great.

Thing is, we’ve had about 70 years of Conservative government in the last 100 years and look at the state of racing today. We’ve seen the greatest decline in British racing in the last 20+ years, and who has been in Government for the last 14 of those? Labour couldn’t do much worse and the plain fact is, racing is not a concern to any of the major parties, in my humble opinion.

Racing must look to itself for solutions….and everyone knows the root cause, and how to fix it. Whilst there is no will to do it, we’ll just keep on moaning every week in a Podcast

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Today we try to put the racing world to rights and discuss the Irish domination, why Premierisation is doomed to fail....or is it?....and we discuss six races for tomorrow, including a 24 runner Irish Handicap....we must be mad!

Below you have my side of the conversation with Sean's selections for each race and our SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

1.32pm Wetherby

No previous running’s of this race so Profiling is null and void.

I will produce Ratings for it tomorrow but for Podcast purposes only, I’ll tell you now that two trainers that had entries and a huge level stake profit in such races being run here are Olly Murphy, five winners from 18 runners in such races as this, a lovely +29 pts profit, and Micky Hammond, nine winners from 68 runners, a profit of +65.8pts....Murphy had GARDNER entered but has not declared.

Hammond has NOT WHAT IT SEEMS who is currently something like 8/1 and I will say let’s go 20/80 at those odds.

RON – NOT WHAT IT SEEMS – 20/80

SEAN – CEPAGE – E.W.

2.50pm Musselburgh

You have spoiled me with the race selections this week and here we have a 13 runner handicap at my second favourite track in the country.

Nine previous running’s, one shy of my need when it comes to Profiling but let’s see what happens.

Horses aged five and six are the “go to” age groups, as they have won eight of those nine running’s, and the last seven.

YOUR HONOR
AFADIL
COLLINGHAM
PARK ANNONCIADE
ZANNABAD
CUBAN CIGAR

I’m getting nothing from weight ranges just yet but market position is screaming off the page!

No winning favourites yet, but seven of the nine winners have sat second of third favourite, the two odd ones out sat fourth on the tissue.

YOUR HONOR
AFADIL

If Profiling works on this limited data, one of that pair visits the winner's enclosure so a dutch....but for the Podcast selection I’ll plump for the Pirate coming over from Ireland, YOUR HONOR.

Second favourites have won five of the nine previous renewals and he’s sitting in that spot at 5/1....20/80.

RON – YOUR HONOR – 20/80

SEAN – SEXTANT – E.W.

3.00pm Leopardstown

I said earlier that you’d spoiled me with your race selections this week but now I have a 24 runner Irish Handicap to work with, and a dumb look on my face.

Might as well be a Rubik’s Cube I’m looking at because trying to solve an Irish Handicap requires the luck of Beelzebub, inside information, and knowledge I do not have of track etc....sure, I watch these races but then I get back to my bread and butter.

Ok....I’ve nine previous running’s in front of me....eight have been won by horses trading a single figure price, which surprised me....but Willie Mullins won it three years ago with a 40/1 shot.

Eight of the nine winners carried less than 11st but when it comes to age groups...6, 7, 8....so let’s see if a rabbit pops it’s head out of this hat

Age groups:

I’m not about to bang a shortlist of 20 horses in here, because that’s how many qualify....so how many carry less than 11st?

MUSIC OF TARA
BLACK BAMBOO
STARZOV
PARK OF KINGS
ISHAN

MARKET POSITION

Any trading a single figure price?

Before I go there, JP has one sitting second favourite, who failed by 1lb to make the weights cut....CANAL END....and trading 5/1.....a beaten favourite last time out you have to consider it.

The shortest priced runner in that five above is MUSIC OF TARA....De Bromhead/Blackmore....12/1....and for Podcast purposes only, a shilling e.w.

RON – MUSIC OF TARA – 20/80

SEAN – MUSIC OF TARA – E.W

3.10pm Sandown

Stunning race....saw this and was rubbing my hands because we’ve been dealing with nonsense all week, most of which shouldn’t have been taking place.

The unfortunate thing is, I only have eight previous running’s of this race to try and cobble some stats together from.

Age groupings....no use at all....the eight previous winners have been aged 8, 7, 9, 6, 6, 8, 5, 6 and weight ranges too are all over the shop, everything from 9st 12lb to 11st 7lb....and that is just in the last five running’s.

Market position offers a little hope as whilst we had a 20/1 winner of the inaugural running, we’ve seen nothing bigger than 10/1 since, with four of the last five winners returning a single figure price.

The winner has been front three on the tissue in the last two running’s, and in four of the last eight so right now I’m looking at one of:

ED KEEPER
TRANSMISSION
WEST BALBOA

Four of the eight winners to date have carried less that 11st and the only one of that trio fitting that bill is TRANSMISSION.

That is the horse Joe Anderson performed miracles to win on a month ago now and at around 7/1, I’ll say go 20/80

RON – TRANSMISSION – 20/80

SEAN – SCAMALLACH LIATH – E.W.

3.35pm Leopardstown

I found a fan club last year, after I suggested FASTORSLOW was much better than we’d seen after his second to CORACH RAMBLER at Cheltenham, beaten a neck giving the winner 4lb.

A few took the hint, backed it at huge double figure prices next time up and he beat the Gold Cup winner in their version at Punchestown....20/1 the returned SP....but far bigger was up for grabs that morning.

He proved that was no fluke on seasonal debut, too, beating GALOPIN DES CHAMPS into third place and now leads 2-0 on head-to-head stats.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is 2/5 tomorrow, FASTORSLOW 3/1....the last named has beaten the favourite when he has been trading 4/11 and 1 / 2 and yep, I know the favourite tomorrow is officially 12lb the better horse, but the formbook says FASTORSLOW is?

A race I’d never have a bet in to save my life, but I have to stick with FASTORSLOW until the other one beats him.

RON – FASTORSLOW

SEAN – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS

3.45pm Sandown

Now I have one I can get right stuck into. It has cut up to just 10 runners but at least I have stats and tends to play around with.

First, age groupings....stick with horses aged seven (3), or eight (4), as they have won seven of the last 10, and the last four running’s of this race:

BANGERS AND CASH
GROZNI
DOM OF MARY

I can dutch for a profit and that’s me sorted if I opt to follow Profiling, as opposed to my Ratings/OMMS tomorrow.

The last three, and six of the last 10 winners of this, all carried more than 11st and they fit....and they are all 8-y-o's, too, which have won two of the last three running’s.

Market next and it’s been a tad strange in recent years, the last two winners returning a double figure SP

The previous eight though returned no bigger than 9/1 with six 7/1 or shorter so at this point we drop GROZNI, currently 11/1.....

BANGERS AND CASH
DOM OF MARY

I’m going to work with DOM OF MARY, the simple reason being 11st 2lb versus 11st 8lb....only one horse in the last decade has carried more than 11st 7lb to victory here and BANGERS AND CASH has 1lb in excess of that....DOM OF MARY 11ST 2LB.

RON – DOM OF MARY

SEAN – KESTREL VALLEY

THE BEST OF THE OMMS

GRANT WOOD – 16/1 > 12/1 - WON 20/1
POCKLINGTON – 20/1 > 12/1 - WON 8/1
EPSOM FAITHFULL – 10/1 > 11/2 - WON 13/2

Something for the weekend

RON – TRANSMISSION/DOM OF MARY – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN – MUSIC OF TARA – E.W.

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Plenty of chat about Premierisation and Media Rights, praise for Joe Anderson and Ron & Sean discuss six races for tomorrow

Please find below their selections with a little something for the weekend at the bottom!

Saturday Racing

Wetherby 1.10pm

Only had eight previous running’s of this race and six of those eight winners were front three on the tissue....but as we only have four runners now, that’s not a great help to anyone!

How am I supposed to use my way of working here?

I’m seeing more second favourites winning than favourites, currently 3-2.

Kim Bailey trains the second favourite here, TRELAWNE and he has only sent one for this previously, NEWTIDE, who won in 2020....but Kim is in awful form right now and has the lowest %age RTF figures of the four trainers having one in here.

Olly Murphy has the best, 55%, but his entry is the outsider of the four on 8/1, having opened 5/1

If Kim’s horses were in form, I’d be all over TRELAWNE as the horse is a lovely 4-6 ground, and 2-2 trip, whereas the favourite, COLONEL HARRY, is already 0-1 trip.

It’s a “Podcast purposes only” selection....TRELAWNE....29 runners and 30 days since Kim last had a winner, and he’s 0-13 in the last two weeks....

RON – TRELAWNE - 2ND 13/8

SEAN – COLONEL HARRY - WON 5/4

CSF = £3.66

Kempton 1.30pm

Only seven going to post I’m afraid so even though we have plenty of back history here, it won’t take a second to arrive at a potential play.

I’m looking for a seven year old, carrying more than 11st, and front three on the tissue and the only qualifier is LATITUDE.

A previous course and distance winner, his trainer is in proper form having had a double at Doncaster a couple of days ago.

Seven runs over fences to date, only once out of the first three, and that was in an amateur riders race at Cheltenham in November.

Mel has made sure she has Alex Edwards back on board....and he rode the horse when it won over course and distance in May of last year.

The horse prefers a decent surface and it’s currently good to soft but rumour is it’ll be good ground by tomorrow and that’s the surface he won on in May.

RON – LATITUDE - 3RD 3/1

SEAN – FLEGMATIK - WON 7/2

Warwick 1.49pm

I thought we might get a decent field for this race but only eight are turning up.

One of those eight is the horse that Cheltenham Profiling turned up as the winner of the final of this race back in 2022, THIRD WIND @ 25/1....but that was the last time we saw him and he’s been off 667 days.

It’s no use trying to fully profile an eight runner race as we know straight away which age groups we want, market position, etc....and here we want to be looking at horses aged six or seven, we have no definite weight bias....we’ve horses winning carrying everything from 10st 1lb to 11st 12lb, with everything in between, in the last decade but, for sure, with only three winners priced bigger than 7/1 in those same 10 years and only one bigger than 5/1 in the last six years, we want a six or seven year old, trading front two on the tissue (five of the last six were), and that horse is MEL MONROE, who travels over from Ireland, representing Gordon Elliott.

That’s my selection

RON - MEL MONROE

SEAN – MEL MONROE

Kempton 2.07pm

They have moved the original off time forward by two minutes, now 2-07pm instead of 2-05pm....thank God for that, I don’t know how I would have managed had it gone off at 2-05pm.

Anyway, five go to post, and again, it’s a simple age/weight/market position call and our winner is BANBRIDGE.....he’s an eight year old....and four of the last five winners were aged eight.

He is carrying less than less than 11st 7lb, as eight of the last 10 winners....and he trades favourite....as have seven of the last 10 winners.

They are trying to get us to look at the dead cat on the table, that is EDWARDSTONE going up in trip but if I do that, I miss which cup they put the pea under!

I can have 12/5 about a horse that fits like a glove, or 11/4 about the dead cat....I see the pea!

Obviously last year’s winner PIC D’ORHY has to be considered, not least because he’s rated 7lb superior to BANBRIDGE but only has to give him 3lb, but he opened 9/4 and has eased to 11/4.

RON – BANBRIDGE - WON 3/1

SEAN – PIC D’ORHY - 2ND 5/2

CSF = £11.02

Warwick 2.24pm

Only five runners but it should make for a good watch, if not a good punt!

In theory APPLE AWAY should beat GREY DAWNING if official weights mean diddly but, the last time they met, GREY DAWNING beat APPLE AWAY by 14 lengths, giving the mare 7lb.

Is 3lb enough to make up that deficit?

The third favourite is BROADWAY BOY, who is the best horse in the race on official numbers, 6lb better than GREY DAWNING....but only has to give him 2lb....but he’s a six year old and eight of that age have tried to win this in the last 10 years....only one has placed.

I like horses that have jumped around Warwick because it is a proper jumpers track....GREY DAWNING has won here over hurdles but....will he stay three miles?

He fits by way of age, sex, and market position....he’s second favourite and five of the last 10 such horses have won this, including four of the last six.

RON – GREY DAWNING - WON 5/4

SEAN – APPLE AWAY - 2ND 4/1

CSF = £6.80

Kempton 2.42pm

A cracker of a race....one to warm the cockles after the rubbish we’ve been working with all this last week because of flu jabs and lousy ground.

Let’s do this proper.

I have 19 runners, and to get my first shortlist I want to work with horses aged six and seven, because they have produced seven of the last 10 winners, and four of the last five:

SONIGINO
NEMEAN LION
MARK OF GOLD
IMPOSE TOI
TEDDY BLUE
KING ALEXANDER
HERMINO AA
IRISH HILL
SERIOUS OPERATOR
MOTHILL
KALEB

I have got rid of eight there....now onto weight ranges. Only four winners in the last decade have carried more than 10st 11lb with four of the last five carrying 10st 11lb or less so anything in that list above carting more than my maximum get shifted out now:

SERIOUS OPERATOR
MOTHILL
KALEB

Four of the last five winners have returned a double figure SP and that includes a 66/1 winner in 2021 but generally speaking I would suggest we don’t look for anything bigger than 16/1 as that would be “top end” without that 2021 shocker.

Of that trio only MOTHILL qualifies – currently 16/1 - and he will be ridden by the guy that gave that one the ride of the century the other day, Joe Anderson.

I’ll go 20/80.

RON - MOTHILL – 20/80

SEAN – IMPOSE TOI

OMMS

I could have selected one of a 100 this week but have settled on the following:

KATS BOB – 20/1 > 17/2 - WON 5/1
SAMMY’S GUARANTEE – 33/1 > 10/1 - WON 14/1
BUZZ BOX – 100/1 > 11/1 - WON 18/1 (DH)

Something for the weekend

RON – AN IRISH DOUBLE – BANBRIDGE / MEL MONROE

SEAN – APPLE AWAY

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A look back at some racing stuff from 2023, a look forward to 2024 and a Christmas punt from us to hopefully add to your Festive cheer!

Thank you very much indeed for listening to a pair of old guys with a passion for horse racing this year. We will be looking to better the 105 points profit achieved from the Podcast in 2023 and so make sure you miss no episodes by subscribing to us via Spotify etc.

Have a brilliant Christmas, a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2024!

Ron & Sean

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You probably have your own opinions on low sun and missed obstacles, also the volume of rain we are seeing right now....the weather hates us, doesn't it!?

Irish racing....wholly uncompetitive stuff, farcical in fact and I liken it to the Scottish Premier League!

What are your thoughts?

Below you have my side of the conversation, with Sean's selections for the races discussed.

Irish Racing - and we thought ours was bad? How do they survive with three top trainers pretty much sweeping up all the decent races?

We had Down Royal last Friday and Saturday. Friday was a seven race card, and Gordon Elliott won six of those seven races….he was third in the handicap.

On Saturday, they had another seven race card….Gordon Elliott won the first five on the card. That was 11 winners, of just 14 races.

On Sunday they held an eight race card at Naas. Elliott had a day off so in step Mullins and De Bromhead, who took five of those eight races between them.

Today they have a meeting at Punchestown….none of the big guns entered anything for the first, De Bromhead won the second.

Now, obviously they will not win all those big races because the nature of the beast is that sometimes even they will have one drop the anchor and not fancy it….but you have to say, it’s all very Scottish Premier League over there now, isn’t it!

Saturday Racing

1-19pm Wetherby

Only five previous running’s of this race and they have been won by horses aged 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….you could not make that up!

The one superb stat punters have to work with though is that the last four favourites have won it, and the very first running was won by the second favourite so, whilst it’s impossible to Profile, all a punter seemingly needs to do is wait for the market to form, then wait for their Saturday Newsletter, when I’ll have my OMMS all studly and buffed.

RON – THE FAVOURITE

SEAN – MOLLY OLLYS WISHES – E.W.

1.54pm Wetherby

Eight previous running’s of this event so a little more to look through but not enough for full profiling I’m afraid. Definitely no age group bias as yet, other than I’d not want to be with anything younger than six, or older than eight….that rules three out I guess.

If the age stat works then our winner is one of:

ERNE RIVER
UBETYA
GRANDEUR D’AME
GOOD WORK

However, they all fail one test that looks solid. The last five winners were all making seasonal debut and the only pair that are not, fail the age test….that’s why eight years back history simply isn’t enough.

If that stat works, then the winner is one of:

BARON DE MIDDLETON
CORNERSTONE LAD
LETS GO TO VEGAS

Weight ranges suggest 11st or more, but not 12st….only one has tried to lump that weight and failed to place so, comparing and contrasting the two groups above, and popping them into a centrifuge, the horses surviving that are:

BARON DE MIDDLETON
CORNERSTONE LAD
UBEYTA
GRANDEUR D’AME

Of that quartet my eye is drawn to GRANDEUR D’AME. He represents the winning most age group, seven, and he has not raced since finishing fifth at Aintree in May.

His form figures on seasonal debut read 1, 1, 3….so he’s seemingly easy to get fit.

RON – GRANDEUR D’AME

SEAN – LETS GO TO VEGAS – E.W. (5/1 OR BIGGER)

2.36pm Lingfield

Just seven going to post but it’s competitive enough.

Horses aged three and four have dominated this in the last 10 years, winning eight of those 10 races between them and I’m swiftly down to just a pair here, using that stat:

BLUE TRAIL
ROUSAY

I have looked at the market for this race and every runner bar FOXES TALES, is drifting.

So, which of that pair wins this?

There has only been one winner bigger than 6/1 in the last 10 running’s of this race and so, it has to be BLUE TRAIL.

ROUSAY is 16/1 from 11/1 and they seem to think he’s missing a leg.

BLUE TRAIL is the current 9/2 third favourite and I’ll suggest a 20/80 to buttons.

RON – BLUE TRAIL – 20/80

SEAN – REGAL REALITY

3.11pm Lingfield

We have a very short priced three year old, MISCHIEF MAGIC 5/4, heading this market and it’s then 8/1 bar.

Stats tell me I need to be looking for an older horse….older than 4 anyway, as the last four winners have been aged 5, 6, 7, 8….but here the stats are asking you to ignore the blatantly obvious, and say the favourite cannot win the race.

Sometimes you have to let common sense override the runes and look at the truth of the matter.

MISCHIEF MAGIC Is rated 10ld superior to ABRAMA GOLD, yet gets to race off level weights.

TACARIB BAY is rated 5lb inferior to the favourite yet has to give him 3lb….and those two horses are sitting third and fourth favourite.

The current second favourite, PINK CRYSTAL, is rated 7lb inferior to MISCHIEF MAGIC, yet only gets 2lb….and if I then tell you that the favourite has won the last three running’s of this race, and five of the last nine renewals, you have to agree that if he turns up fit, well and ready, MISCHIEF MAGIC wins this race.

RON – MISCHIEF MAGIC

SEAN – PINK CRYSTAL – E.W.

THE BEST OF THE OMMS THIS WEEK

DYSANIA – 20/1 > 13/2 – WON 11/2
APOLOGISE – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 9/1
KEEP ME STABLE – 10/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON - BLUE TRAIL / MISCHIF MAGIC – DOUBLE
SEAN – PINK CRYSTAL – E.W.

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Today we discuss the Breeders Cup, the return of Hen Knight to the training ranks and....have you signed the petition yet?

A new format ae we now discuss just four races of a Saturday, the rest being saved for our subscribed membership....it was either that, or put the Podcast behind a pay wall and I hate doing things like that!

1.50pm Wincanton

This race takes me back!

In 2013 I had to go to Ireland for a few days of meetings in the October, and before I left I told members they had to get on a horse called WONDEFUL CHARM when he next ran, because he would be winning. The reason Nicholls had to get a win in before the end of November was that he lost his novice status at the end of that month….he won this race @ 11/8, having won two weeks earlier @ 8/11 and he had a hat-trick of wins rattled up before the end of the November….nobody got rich, but it was easy money. It was nearly a year later that he won again but the job was done.

No age bias to this race, the last five winners have been aged 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….and as the weights also tell us nothing, it’s the market where we find our winner.

In the last 10 years the winner has not been outside the front three on the tissue, and we’ve had five winning favourites.

It’s currently 8/11 KNAPPERS HILL to make it six in the last 11 running’s, and it’s 10/1 bar two so, one of KNAPPERS HILL or CAPTAIN CONBY wins this as last years 5/1 winner was the biggest priced in the last decade.

Don’t go looking for ghosts as they do not exist….KNAPPERS HILL wins this. Officially a stone the better horse and racing off level weights, if he gets round (always an if in a novice chase), he wins.

RON – KNAPPERS HILL

SEAN – DOYEN STAR – E.W.

2.05pm Newcastle

A Listed all weather race and if you’ve been following the all weather OMMS, you know just how good they are right now, at finding winners and placed horses so, competition players, pin back yer lug ‘oles!

The last four winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6 but six of the last nine winners were aged three, or four so, my first shortlist reads:

TACARIB BAY
EMBRACE
GLORIOUS ANGEL
SECRET ANGEL
SENSE OF DUTY
SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT
SWEET HARMONY

Seven of those winners carried less than 9st 7lb but they all qualify on that count this time around as none carry the 3lb penalty for having won a Listed race after March 31st.

The market strongly suggests a spot front four on the tissue is required as eight of the last nine winners were so from that list above we run with:

SENSE OF DUTY

Only one horse makes the cut and the Haggas runner is also currently the 11/4 favourite (it’s then 7/1 bar), and I see that as a positive, as four of the last nine favourites have won this.

He’s the only course and distance winner in the field, the second is rated 4lb inferior and yet has to give my selection 5lb….no brainer….if they all run to form!

RON – SENSE OF DUTY

SEAN – SENSE OF DUTY

3-00 pm Wincanton

Just five runners so we won’t keep you long here!

If you are not front two on the tissue, stay in your box….the last eight winners sat front pair, the last four favourites winning, and five of them in the last seven running’s, so that all makes RUBAUD look solid gold.

Currently the 5/6 favourite ahead of HANSARD, who trades around 7/4, it is then 10/1 bar that pair.

HANSARD get 6lb off RUBAUD but….he’s officially Rated 10lb inferior and also has to concede race fitness to the Nicholls trained favourite.

Has to be RUBAUD doesn’t it.

RON – RUBAUD

SEAN – SACRE COUER – E.W.

2.45pm Aintree

This race might yet not be run as they are inspecting the National course in the morning. We have had rain of biblical proportions on Wirral and Merseyside all week, and it is going to be very hard work at Aintree on Saturday, and as if the ground isn’t bad enough, we also go to work on this in the knowledge that three of the last four winners returned SP’s of 16/1, 20/1 and 20/1….let’s see what the runes say regardless.

You need to be aged eight, or nine….eight of the last 10 winners were, as also were the last five winners:

FANTASTIC LADY
MINELLA TRUMP
BORN BY THE SEA
COOPER’S CROSS
FRERO BANBOU
PERCUSSION
YCCS PORTOCERVO
HALF SHOT

Only three winners in the last 10 years carried less than 10st 12lb so I have to run with that, despite reservations about the ground.

FANTASTIC LADY
MINELLA TRUMP
BORN BY THE SEA
COOPER’S CROSS
FRERO BANBOU

That actually gets rid of a horse I fancied! YCCS PORTOCERVO is trained by the good Dr Richard Newland, who has saddled seven horses for this in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with two.

Market next and as I’ve pointed out, we get some big priced winners here but, five of the last eight winners were front six on the tissue and, we did get two winning favourites in 2016 and, 2017….:

FANTASTIC LADY
BORN BY THE SEA
COOPER’S CROSS

A three horse dutch if you must get involved here but, I’m going to remove FANTASTIC LADY here despite here superb run over these fences in this years Topham. She has to carry 12st and I cannot find a winner of this that has ever done that.

One of BORN BY THE SEA, or COOPER’S CROSS, carries the Post Racing shekel…..and I mean a single, solitary, shekel!

Of that pair I’m going with the Irish trained BORN BY THE SEA, who ran a huge race in this years Grand National, finishing a 10 length fifth @ 50/1.

Currently 8/1, I’ll pop him up as a 20/80 and hope he remembers how to win a race….he last did that in July 2021 so it’s going to be a long time between drinks, if he pulls it off.

RON – BORN BY THE SEA – 20/80

SEAN – NASSALAM – E.W.

BEST OF THIS WEEK’S OMMS

ALL NEWCASTLE 07/11/23

STRONG JOHNSON – 12/1 > 6/1 – WON 6/1
PANAMA CITY – 12/1 > 8/1 – WON 14/1
POCKLEY – 25/1 > 8/1 – WON 6/1

Something for the weekend

RON – SENSE OF DUTY

SEAN – SENSE OF DUTY

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In his capacity as Chairman of the HBF, Sean Trivass met with Sports Minister Stuart Andrew yesterday to discuss the debacle that is the Gambling Commission's seemingly great delight in ruining horse racing and peoples enjoyment of having a bit of fun with a bet on the sport.

Sean discusses what came out of that, and where he goes next.

Pyledriver heads the discussions before we then start to dissect seven races for you, that will also be used for our very own FREE TO PLAY racing competition over on the Post Racing website. You will need to be registered as a FREE member on that site to play, and be logged in.

Please find below my side of the conversation regarding those races and hopefully you get enough clues from it to make sensible predictions!

1.35pm Kempton

A seven runner race and with the winner sitting front two on the tissue in seven of the last eight years, and with five of the last six winners aged four, or five, this hasn’t taken long to sort out at all.

The winner is one of:

BAY BRIDGE
ISRAR

I can look at weight ranges next and I find that in the last decade, only two horses have carried more than 9st 9lb to victory so that suggests ISRAR has a right old job on tying to give BAY BRIDGE 5lb, whilst trying to lump 9st 12lb into the winners enclosure. Add into the equation that BAY BRIDGE is also, officially, 6lb the better horse and we see that the second favourite has to improve by close to a stone to win on Saturday.

But then I look at the trainer of ISRAR’s record in this race….John Gosden….won four of the last five running’s so, fair to say he knows what it takes.

Also, no winner of this, in the last 10 years, has arrived not having finished in the first four, on their latest run….BAY BRIDGE finished fifth.

If trends blow up in our faces it’s possibly Gosden’s other runner, FORTINO, that could spring a surprise….around 14/1 as I speak.

He has his first run for the yard on Saturday, having run up a hat-trick of wins in Chile. He arrives rated just 2lb behind ISRAR but gets 6lb.

I do not like this race one bit. We have if’s buts and maybes about the front four on the tissue….and I have not mentioned CANDLEFORD yet, who is a previous CD winner, trained by Haggas, who has sent just three for this in the last decade, won with one (HAMISH), placed with another.

I have to put up one of the two mentioned at the top because they “fit”….but no confidence I have this right at all….BAY BRIDGE for me.

RON – BAY BRIDGE

SEAN – SHANDOZ – E.W.

1.50pm Haydock

REGAL REALITY did us a Podcast favour a couple of outings ago and comes out of the Lucky 2 stall….four of the last five winners were tucked up in that one.

He’s also older than we want now as horses aged three, four or five win this generally….eight of the last 10 winners were, and the last four.

CHINDIT
LIGHT INFANTRY
POINT LYNAS
ZOOLOGY

Weight ranges count for nothing here so onto the market we go and if you sit outside the front four on the tissue, you might as well go home now. Eight of the last nine winners were “fancied”, as the fact that seven of the last nine winners traded 11/2, or shorter:

LIGHT INFANTRY

The only runner that makes the cut based on current tissue price. He’s 5/2 right now, it’s then 6/1 bar and all trends point to him winning this race on Saturday.

RON – LIGHT INFANTRY

SEAN – LIGHT INFANTRY

2.10pm Kempton

A mile handicap, run on sand. Lovely.

The last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged four, or five and that rules out the favourite, a Haggas trained 3-y-o….which is a shame because the last three favourites have won this race!

My first shortlist though consists of horses aged four, and five:

IMPERIAL SANDS
HELM ROCK
RHYTHM N ROCK
FANTASTIC FOX
BALTIMORE BOY
TWO TEMPTING
GOLDEN SANDS
BOTAS

Weight ranges next as usual and the last winner to carry less than 9st was the 12/1 shot GEORGIAN BAY, in 2015 so I only want onside those carrying 9st, or more….:

IMPERIAL SANDS
HELM ROCK

Very swiftly down to a pair and if I apply the upper weight limit, that being no more than 9st 7lb, we lose IMPERIAL SANDS and take forward just HELM ROCK.

I’m not sure he has been done any favours at all getting that three draw to race from as six of the last eight winners were drawn 16, 14, 14, 14, 10, 12, with the other two boxed in seven, and eight.

Thankfully I don’t have to consider another all weather race for this Podcast….I’ll pop up HELM ROCK for Podcast purposes only.

RON – HELM ROCK – 20/80

SEAN – BRAINS – E.W.

2.35pm Ascot

First thing I did here was look for those seven furlong specialists….only POPMASTER has failed to win over this trip previously…..0-6 at it.

Ok, age groupings first. Horses aged four and five are “it”….they have won eight of the last 10 renewals of this race:

STAR OF ORION
SPANGLED MAC
POPMASTER
HICKORY
ADBUCTION
LOVE DE VEGA
MOBASHR

POPMASTER is in there but not for much longer, I suspect.

Weight ranges come out at 8st 7lb and 9st 6lb….that would have found us seven of the last 10 winners:

HICKORY
ADBUCTION
LOVE DE VEGA
MOBASHR

Down to a very nice four pretty quickly and now we’ll let the market sort it out. Eight of the last 10 winners were front five on the tissue and that also includes the last five so….:

HICKORY
LOVE DE VEGA

I’d dutch, for sure but if I have to pop one up as my selection, it has to be LOVE DE VEGA. No favourite has won this in the last 10 years….placed six times, but not won and so LOVE DE VEGA, who has won his last two races and has won and placed in seven of his 12 races on turf, can hopefully land me at least my “80” place play at around 8/1.

RON - LOVE DE VEGA – 20/80

SEAN – HAVANA BLUE – E.W.

3.00pm Haydock

A 15 runner handicap in which they currently go 7/1 the field. I would definitely be looking for a bookmaker paying four places.

Between 2013 and 2018 I would have been saying you needed a four year old on your betting slip as they won four of these but in recent times, older horses have been taking it, probably as a result of the decent younger horses being bought to race overseas so we’ll go with horses aged five, or older:

ENEMY
TRITONIC
GET SHIRTY
EUCHEN GLEN
MR CURIOSITY
FORZA ORTA
HALIPHON

Weight ranges are a little blurry but I’m thinking we apply a band of 8st 10lb – 9st 7lb as that would have trapped seven of the last 10 winners, and the last five.

TRITONIC
GET SHIRTY
EUCHEN GLEN
MR CURIOSITY
FORZA ORTA

Gets us down to five.

Looking back at the returned SP’s of our last 10 winners is scary. Six of them have returned a double figure price but, on further inspection, I’d say we can rule out anything bigger than 14/1.

I would not want to be outside the front six on the tissue….but I do not want to be with the favourite, only one of those has pulled it off recently:

EUCHEN GLEN
FORZA ORTA

That gets me down to two, the first named being the winner of this in 2020.

I’ll go with FORZA ORTA for two reasons….EUCHAN GLEN is now a 10 year old, and he has not managed to win a race now for two years. He’s a good, consistent performer who ran a cracker in the Ebor and he may well hit the frame here but I have to post up the younger horse, an improving five year old, a winner last time out…20/80.

RON – FORZA ORTA – 20/80

SEAN – TRITONIC – E.W.

3.10pm Ascot

I’m feeling a little snookered here as three runners still have no jockeys booked to ride so, will they be taking part? I have to assume they will right now but anyway, a three year old WILL win this.

What weight will they be carrying? Not sure about minimum weight but history is telling me, I do not want anything with more than 9st on it’s back as only two have won with 9st+….that gives me:

ALKASIB
PERFECT PLAY
OVERACTIVE
TRUE LEGEND
GALLANT LION
DANCING IN PARIS

Market position of previous winners suggests outside front five means you are lugging a ball and chain so:

ALKASIB
GALLANT LION

One of that pair then, if the runes are right!

That’s a dutch @ 5/1 & 11/2 but for a solo play I’m going with ALKASIB.

Trained by Andrew Balding, who has sent seven for this previously, won with one, placed with a pair and this horse got a bit bogged down on soft ground at Goodwood last time out, having previously won on good to firm, and good at Chester.

I’ll go 20/80 that Probert can get the same tune out of him that he did at Windsor and get back in to the winners enclosure.

RON - ALKASIB – 20/80

SEAN – VICTORY DANCE – E.W.

3.35pm Haydock

The Betfair Sprint Cup and SHAQUILLE is already odds on to win, it’s 11/1 bar and on official figures he only has to turn up to win.

I’ve been looking to see if I can get him beaten via stats/trends and the answer is no. Three year olds have a good record in this, winning five of the last 10. The winner is usually front three on the tissue and seven of the last 10 winners returned SP’s of 7/1 or shorter.

Stats wise, he’s bombproofed and the only way he gets beaten, is if he’s had enough for this season but you only ever know that after an event.

The second favourite races off level weights….and is officially 9lb inferior, the third favourite is giving the favourite 2lb, and is officially 10lb inferior.

RON – SHAQUILLE

SEAN – SACRED – E.W.

OMMS

BRIAN THE SNAIL – 25/1 > 12/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/2
FORTAMOUR – 15/2 > 11/2 - WON 9/2
SEND IN THE CLOUDS – 11/2 > 4/1 – WON 10/3

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE – ALKASIB, FORZA ORTA, LIGHT INFANTRY

SEAN – VICTORY DANCE – E.W.

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Sean has his HBF hat on in today's Podcast and is looking to introduce new blood into the Horse Bettors Forum....fancy the gig? Sean explains the type of people he needs on board.

Andrea Atzeni is now off to pastures new and we bring into that part of our discussion football, and the crazy salaries being offered to players by the Saudi clubs.

The 28/1 > Evens gamble landed in Ireland....should these things be investigated?

Then we get stuck into this weekends racing....poor quality stuff but, we've given it our best shot.

Below you have the text of my side of the conversation, for our hard of hearing members.

Saturday Racing

1.50pm Sandown

Only two previous running’s of this race so I’m going to have to try and do a “Camacho” and see if trainer trends can sort this out, as they did a few weeks back.

We have 11 going to post right now and funnily enough, the trainer with the best level stake profit at this track, in races of this ilk, is William Stone and his entry, FINAL WATCH, is currently the only runner without a jockey booked.

Stone has a level £1 stake profit of £16.60 and has enjoyed three winners from the six runners in races run over seven furlongs here.

It’s probably nothing but the first two running’s of this race have gone to the favourite.

I cannot put my finger on a definitive selection working as I do but I’ll give it the Camacho

RON – FINAL WATCH – 20/80

SEAN – YOUARENOTFORGIVEN – E.W.

2.05pm Beverley

This is the first running of this event, so I’ve got diddly again I’m afraid.

Applying my “Camacho” system I can only point you in the direction of two horses:

DANCING IN PARIS
DREAM HARDER

Both are trained by Ian Williams, who is the only trainer with a runner in here, showing a positive £1 level stake profit = £10…..four winners from 20 runners in races run over 12 furlongs at Beverley.

Currently 11/2 & 13/2 respectively, it’s a dutch and if pushed I’ll say DREAM HARDER 20/80 because he’s ridden by Ben Curtis who has ridden 11 winners from his 51 rides in the last two weeks, compared to that of Cam Hardie, who has not managed a solitary winner from 33 rides and that’s “cold” in my book.

In fact, Cam has had 60 rides in the last 22 days and not a sausage….currently sitting third in the cold jockeys list behind Charlie Bennett and Hayley Turner.

RON – DREAM HARDER – 20/80

SEAN – AIMERIC – E.W.

2.25pm Sandown

We have 10 going to post so an e.w. play potentially….and I say potentially because finding the winner in recent years has required the assistance of Beelzebub. It was 18/1 last year, 14/1 in 2020 and 12/1 in 2019.

This is only won by horses aged three (6), or four (4). So, if that holds up we get rid of two, POTAPOVA (who won this last year as a 4-y-o), and ROMAN MIST.

When POTAPOVA won it last year, that was the third winner of this in the last 10 years, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Tomorrow Ryan Moore rides….and he has ridden two of those three winners for the trainer.

Weight ranges I’ll pin down to 8st 10lb – 9st 1lb because that scoops up five of the last eight winners and the market position of the last 10 winners suggests that if you sit front three in the market you have a near 70% chance of success so, putting that little lot through the centrifuge, one of:

COPPICE
MIDNIGHT MILE

….wins it.

COPPICE trades favourite and whilst we have four of them winning between between 2013 – 2018 inclusive, only one of the last four has managed to hit the frame.

The filly is also trained by Gosden who has sent two for this in the last decade, placed with one.

Richard Fahey trains MIDNIGHT MILE and he has sent two for it, winning it with LADY’S FIRST, who dead-heated with Sir Michael Stoute’s INTEGRAL in 2013.

Only rated 1lb off COPPICE, and yet nearly double the price….I’ll go 20/80 the Fahey runner.

I should tell you that only one of the last eight runners came from a stall higher than four, and that five of the last six winners broke from stall three….on Saturday MYSTERIOUS LOVE, currently 40/1, comes from the lucky box.

RON – MIDNIGHT MILE – 20/80

SEAN – NIBRAS ANGEL – E.W.

2.40pm Beverley

Looking at age groupings for this seven runner Listed race, and you have been given the task of untying the Gordian knot.

The last seven winners have been aged 5, 10, 11, 7, 6, 7, 8….I guess we can say nine have been aged older than five and it’s something:

APOLLO ONE
JUDICIAL
TIS MARVELLOUS
ELEGANT ERIN

The last two would be considered heroes under the NH code as they are aged 11 and nine….and with all 10 winners in the last decade carrying 9st or more, we lose the bottom one….40/1 anyway and wasting my time it is.

The other three qualify though and with just market position to work with now I have to plump for front two on the tissue because they account for six of the last nine winners and so my winner is:

APOLLO ONE

That horse was my selection for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood and got done ¾ of a length into second place. He has seconditis for sure and has not seen a winners enclosure on turf since August 2020.

I’ll go 20/80 but only expect to be getting a bean off the “80” because he definitely likes to see at least one backside in front of him.

RON – APOLLO ONE – 20/80

SEAN – SILKY WILKIE

3.00pm Sandown

A lovely 14 runner handicap to plot a course through and let’s hope the weather forecast is correct and we do not get our Saturday Summer Monsoon again this weekend.

Age groupings are no use I’m afraid, the last 10 winners have been aged three (3), four (3) or five (4)….I guess I could say we’ll bin the three year olds as only one of that age group has succeeded in the last six years so, I will…..first shortlist is of those aged four, or five.

EAGLES WAY
GAASSEE
LORD PROTECTOR
GROUND BREAKER
STAY WELL
GREAT MAX
EDUCATOR
KITSUNE POWER
DUAL IDENTITY

Weight ranges very much suggest that you want to be carrying south of 9st 1lb as only one winner has carried more in the last decade so….:

KITSUNE POWER
DUAL IDENTITY

I’m down to a pair and if either of those two succeed, a lot of Placepot players will be binning their vouchers as they are 25/1 and 14/1 respectively.

DUAL IDENTITY is a previous CD winner, one of just two races from 19 attempts, that he has managed to win on turf.

I’ll put him up as a 20/80 with no confidence at all and hope he knows the trends say he’s “it”!

RON – DUAL IDENTITY – 20/80

SEAN – DASHING ROGER – E.W.

3.20pm Chester

A long distance Listed race, just six runners and most definitely three year olds have been favoured in recent years, winning three of the last four renewals and five of the last nine.

Our winner is generally found front two on the tissue….four of the last five winners there….with three winning favourites.

The only horse that fits is MILITARY ORDER, who went off at 9/2 to win the Derby in June but finished 24 length last of the 14.

Like I say, he “fits” but would I take 6/5? I doubt it. Especially seeing that Beckett, who has saddled the last two winners of this and has been firing in loads of winners in August, trains the second favourite LONE EAGLE. Neither though has attempted this trip previously….it’s a six runner minefield I don’t fancy trying to walk across but I’ll put up the favourite because it’s for the Podcast!

RON – MILITARY ORDER

SEAN – MILITARY ORDER

3.38pm Sandown

If the winner isn’t front two on the tissue here, I will not be naming the winner. We have had seven winning favourites and three that were trading second favourite, winning this in the last decade. We actually had six successive winning favourites between 2016 and 2021 inclusive and the biggest SP returned by a winner since 2016, is 9/4.

That means one of these two wins it….:

STARLORE
MORTLAKE

With a shrug I’ll just suggest I give that favourites stat a cuddle and put up STARLORE. Ryan Moore rode when he won here on racecourse debut and he’s up again.

He beat an Appleby trained favourite that day, that has gone on to win twice since including a Listed race at Salisbury so, that does me.

RON – STARLORE

SEAN - AABLAN

OMMS

ROOST – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 15/2 (Ffos Las last Friday)
SPERIAMO – 20/1 > 8/1 – WON 14/1 (Newmarket last Friday)
CAVERN CLUB – 10/1 > 13/2 – WON 3/1 (Newmarket 5-00 last Friday)

Something for the weekend

RON – MIDNIGHT MILE – 20/80

SEAN – MILITARY ORDER / AABLAN - DOUBLE

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Lady Riders – did the Shergar Cup simply prove that they are as good or better than their male counterparts but they aren’t getting the rides?

I’d say in the case of Hollie Doyle, she’s better than most male jockeys and Saffie Osbourne has obviously been listening well to her old man who was one of the best riders of a novice 2 mile chaser I have ever seen.

I think we are going to see a rise in lady jockeys being used by top yards, not least because they’ll not be as worried as a bloke about their weight and right now Hollie Doyle sits third in the jockeys table, only Buick, Tom Marquand and Oisin Murphy having had more rides this season….she is currently on 376 rides, 61 winners and total prize money of £1.5m

The Arc 2023 – are the middle-distance horses as bad as everyone is saying – who is your early fancy?

I’m not a fan of the current favourite ACE IMPACT, who managed to win a Group 2 at the weekend by ½ a length and on that shorter home run AT Longchamp, than that they have at Deauville, he might be to far back when he starts his run.

I’m a HUKUM fan, and have been since his seasonal debut win. They have PADDINGTON @ 10/1….we dismissed him last week.

FEED THE FLAME was beaten by ACE IMPACT at Deauville but has raced only four times and is 3-3 at Longchamp….I’ll dutch FEED THE FLAME and HUKUM….both 7/1 right now.

Saturday Racing

1.50pm Newbury

In the last 10 years only two horses older than four have succeeded here and in the last six years it is 4-2 to the 3-y-o’s. I’ll start with a shortlist of those aged three and four:

JACK DARCY
CHING SHIH
ARREST
KLONDIKE

At the same time as that pair of age groups started to dominate this, so to did horses carrying less than 9st and the only qualifier I have here is:

KLONDIKE

Currently third best on the tissue and that sits well with me too, as seven of the last nine winners were. In that span of time, we have also had five winning favourites so ARREST, also a 3-y-o, has to be of interest on that stat alone.

One of that pair wins it and on official ratings it should be ARREST but the Haggas horse is a previous course winner and open to improvement.

RON – KLONDIKE – 20/80

SEAN - ARREST

2.05pm Newmarket

Brilliant….a 16 runner handicap, the stuff my dreams are made of.

Horses aged 3, 4 or 5 are the ones we need to concentrate on if history repeats itself, as nine of the last 10 winners get caught up in that stat:

MITROSONFIRE
MISTER BLUEBIRD
CELTIC CHAMPION
DIVINE LIBRA
SECRET GUEST
STAR OF LADY M
STRIKE
MASTERCLASS

Last years winner, STRIKE, is in there. He took this as the 11/4 joint favourite12 months ago but I reckon I can get him beaten this time around.

I do not want horses carrying more than 9st 6lb, or less than 8st 5lb in my next list as none of the last 10 winners carried less than my minimum, and only a pair have carried more than 9st 6lb so….:

SECRET GUEST
STAR OF LADY M
STRIKE
MASTERCLASS

Down to four, and last years winner is still in there.

Market place next and if you ain’t front four on the tissue, your binned….seven of the last nine winners were, and we have also seen the last three favourites pinging in and I have a brace coming from that list of four.

STRIKE
MASTERCLASS

So how do I reckon I’ll get STRIKE beaten this year? Well, last year he won from stall 1, and this year he’s out of 16….right on the wing. I feel we need to be drawn middle….4-12 at any rate and MASTERCLASS is boxed in 10….I would have preferred slightly lower but I cannot have everything.

RON – MASTERCLASS – 20/80

SEAN – MUSIC SOCIETY - E.W.

2.25pm Newbury

No previous running’s of this race so I’m going to try and do a Camacho here….for those that didn’t tune in last week I found us a 15/2 winner trained by Julie Camacho by applying the stats each trainer has in such races, at this track, and whether or not they have a level stake profit and we have one qualifier.

Ed Walker….he has sent 73 for races of this ilk, at this track, in the last 10 years and he has saddled 16 winners, producing a level stake profit of 10.98 points.

Tomorrow I’m going 20/80 LIBRA TIGER. Currently trading 6/1 joint second favourite, and with nowhere else to go, that’s my pick

RON – LIBRA TIGER – 20/80

SEAN – LIBRA TIGER – E.W.

2.40pm Ripon

No previous running’s of this but tomorrow I’ll have figures for it and we’ll see how they stack up.

Two trainers to work with as regards their profitability in such races at this track:

PAUL MIDGLEY – LEVEL STAKE PROFIT OF 36.03PTS….76 runners, 13 winners
RUTH CARR – 19.45PTS PROFIT….79 runners, 10 winners

Ruth Carr saddles AMERICAN STAR (stall 17), whilst Paul Midgley has STRONG JOHNSON (stall 6).

As I said I have no previous running’s of this but the next race on this card, the Great St Wilfred (to be discussed), has seen six of the last seven winners come from stalls 13, 10, 19, 15, 17, 19 and that might be pertinent because this is run over the same trip. If it is, then my 20/80 here has to go to AMERICAN STAR.

RON – AMERICAN STAR – 20/80

SEAN – THORNABY PEARL

3.00pm Newbury

Lots of juicy back history to this race and with eight of the last 10 winners aged three, four, or five, they make up my first list of potential winners:

POPMASTER
OPEN MIND
LETHAL NYMPH
SPANGLED MAC
HODLER
ISLA KAI
CLASSIC
SCHOLARSHIP
HECTIC
ALPHA CAPTURE

Weight ranges next up and anything carrying less than 9st gets the chop as only one winner has carried less (8st 12lb), in 2014 so my list now reads:

POPMASTER
OPEN MIND
LETHAL NYMPH
SPANGLED MAC
HODLER
ISLA KAI
CLASSIC

Now head over to the market as I only want horses going forward that sit front four on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners would be in this net:

OPEN MIND
SPANGLED MAC
CLASSIC

Down to three and a definite dutch.

In order to take just one forward for those Podcast purposes, I’m looking at how the draw has affected a result and no doubt about it, with only two winners drawn higher than six in the last 10 years, the only horse I can work with is CLASSIC, drawn in stall one….6/1 favourite right now and as the favourite has hit the frame in six of these….and the last three, that’s my 20/80 sorted.

RON – CLASSIC – 20/80

SEAN – SCHOLARSHIP - E.W.

3.15pm Ripon

A 2O runner cavalry charge and if I’m reading the runes right, we only want horses aged five onside here. They have won six of the last nine, and five of the last six running’s of the race so I’ll bang up my first shortlist which includes:

IT JUST TAKES TIME
WOBWOBWOB
TEMPLE BRUER
CAIRN GORM

Only four of the field make that cut.

From the weight ranges of the last 10 winners I’d suggest we only want horses carrying less than 0st here as six of the last 10 winners did….and that also includes the last three.

All qualify….good training performances by their handlers!

Market next and here it looks properly funky. We have had five winning favourites but, when the favourite fails, we get a heck of a juicy price about our winner, the other five returning 16/1, 25/1, 10/1, 18/1 and 11/1.

IT JUST TAKES TIME
WOBWOBWOB
TEMPLE BRUER
CAIRN GORM

None of those listed is currently trading shorter than 14/1 but as TEMPLE BRUER is 33/1 as I type and I have nowt bigger than 25/1 in the last decade, I’ll have ne a three horse dutch:

IT JUST TAKES TIME
WOBWOBWOB
CAIRN GORM

You need one for that 20/80 though so looking at where they are drawn, and wanting one drawn 15 or higher (the last five winners have come from 19, 15, 17, 19, 6), it has to be the Mark Walford trained IT JUST TAKES TIME….stall 18, a previous CD winner, the other two drawn 12 & 14….a nice 14/1 winner if I’m right. He opened 25/1 so some have already thrown the runes and come up with the same answer!

RON – IT JUST TAKES TIME – 20/80

SEAN – BAY BREEZE – E.W.

3.35pm Newbury

Last years winner lines up again, and JUMBY is the current 3/1 second favourite. Now aged five he will not make the age cut as I want nowt onside older than four…and that rules out the front three on the tissue so, if trends work out we’ll have a nice priced winner here….the last pair have been 6/1 & 9/1….finger crossed.

So,,,,horses aged three/four:

WITCH HUNTER
MARBAAN
MOSTABSHIR
NEW ENDEAVOUR
MAMMAS GIRL

We get no help from weight ranges as all bar one has carried 9st or more so market position will hopefully give us the winner. I’ll start by telling you the last six winners sat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 on the tissue but, we have only had that one winning favourite. Eight though were front five so…:

MARBAAN
MOSTABSHIR

If I’m right, a 3-y-o wins it.

How to split that pair? Well, what I’m seeing is that our winner usually arrives having finished outside the front three last time out. Three of the last four winners had finished 8th, seventh and JUMBY last year arrived having finished 14th of 21 at Royal Ascot.

Taking that as Gospel, my winner is MOSTABSHIR, blinkered first time tomorrow and around 7/1, my 20/80.

RON – MOSTABSHIR – 20/80

SEAN – MOSTABSHIR – E.W.

OMMS

The best of last weeks OMMS

ANGELIC APPEAL – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 8/1
GRAPPA NONINO – 20/1 > 9/1 – WON 10/1
MORTLAKE 20/1 > 10/1 – WON 15/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – KLONDIKE – 20/80

SEAN – MUSIC SOCIETY – E.W.

View Details

Lousy racing this week because of the Shergar Cup and we've been left with no meat on the bones at all.

All we can do is try to find winners like those we did last time out but I very much doubt it will happen.

They divided a race after I had worked on it, three I have no back history for and so I'm flying a kite.

My side of the racing conversation below....best of luck!

2.25pm Haydock

It was 2019 the last time we had 16 going to post for this, the last two running’s producing seven runner races. So, four places for the 20/80 players!

This has become a goldmine for the 3-y-o’s. They have won the last three, and four of the last six. I certainly wouldn’t want anything older than four on my mind because between 2013 and 2018 inclusive, this race was mined by those from that age group, five winners from that six so, let’s run up a shortlist of 3-y-o’s and see how we get on:

ISLE OF JURA
POET MASTER
SUDDEN AMBUSH
BODORGAN
KATHAB
FREEDOM DAY

Looking at the weight ranges and with seven of the last 10 winners carrying between 9st and 9st 6lb, any of that lot above outside than banding gets removed now:

POET MASTER
SUDDEN AMBUSH

Down to a pair….and a dutch!

Market positions next and with nine of the last 10 winners in the front four on the tissue at the off I have to post up POET MASTER as my selection here. He currently trades the 4/1f, whilst SUDDEN AMBUSH is 14/1. The biggest priced winner in the last decade was 8/1.

RON – POET MASTER

SEAN – ISLE OF JURA

3.05pm Newmarket

The problem with the racing tomorrow is that I have been reduced to selecting races away from Ascot (Shergar Cup nonsense), and when looking for big field races for competition purposes, have found myself working with races that have not been run before. This is the first of them and I’m snookered.

I’m a stats/trends man and if I have none, I’m trusting to the markets on the day to show me a way across the minefield.

This is a Class 5 race, run over 12 furlongs and right now the only thing I can tell you is that in such races run at this track, Charlie Johnston has run 57 horses in Class 5, 12-furlong races, won with nine of them and has a whopping great +33.75pts level stake profit in them.

Based on that stat I can say I find EDGE OF DARKNESS very, very interesting and it will be interesting to see what the market tells us in the morning.

RON – EDGE OF DARKNESS

SEAN – EDGE OF DARKNESS

2-38PM - 3.13pm Redcar

More snookers required I’m afraid as this is the very first running of this race and as with that last race all I can refer to is trainer’s stats in such races being run there and nowt for you I’m afraid.

I’ve looked at the two course and distance winners, YOUNG FIRE and GIVEIT SOME TEDDY….the first named is 0-9 on the going they have there right now, GIVE IT SOME TEDDY is 0-7….nothing in this race has won on the going as it is currently described and so unless the players get stuck into to something tomorrow, this Class 4 is a no play race for me. For competition purposes I’d maybe look to STAR PLAYER to snaffle some place points as he has raced eight times on turf, won two, placed in four.

RON – 2-38PM - STAR PLAYER – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – 3-13PM - SHALADAR – E.W.

ANNOUNCE THE WINNER OF THE COMPETITION!!!!

4.15pm Newmarket

Now I’m cooking on gas!

An 11 runner, Class 2 Handicap, my stuff of dreams!

Eight of the last 10 winners were aged three, or four….so that’s where I go for my first shortlist:

LETHAL LEVI
ANOTHER INVESTMENT
MASTER RICHARD
SIR WINSTON
URBAN SPRAWL
THUNDER BALL
PARLANDO

From the weight range perspective, I’m looking 9st 2lb – 9st 7lb as the last four winners and six of the last nine winners would have been found looking only at that weight range:

ANOTHER INVESTMENT
MASTER RICHARD
SIR WINSTON
URBAN SPRAWL
THUNDER BALL

Down to five.

Market position next and as I type, I have no tissue but for certain you need to be front two in the market as the traps open and if trading favourite, all the better as we’ve had five winning favourites in the last nine years, with a pair of second favourites thrown in for good measure.

SIR WINSTON – 4/1
URBAN SPRAWL – 5/1

HAS TO BE SIR WINSTON

RON – SIR WINSTON

SEAN – PARLANDO – E.W.

5.20pm Haydock

I’m snookered again. I have no previous running’s of this race to produce a Profiling and so cannot possibly post up a play.

All I have with regards stats for a race like this, run at Haydock, is that Julie Camacho has run 60 horses in Class 5, seven furlong handicaps here, produced 12 winners and a level point win profit of +7.33pts.

She has a pair in here. Course and distance winner OSCAR’S SISTER, racing first time following a wind-op, and ZAPPHIRE, who will be making handicap debut in this race.

Maybe a tuppeny dutch that pair? I’ll not be betting unless we have an OMM….and we will not know about that until tomorrow!

RON – NO SELECTION

SEAN – GLORY SKY – E.W. (9/2 OR BIGGER)

5-50

As above

RON – FINBAR’S LAD

SEAN – UGO GREGORY

8.07pm Ayr

We are keeping them up late for this final leg of the competition but that’s all the fault of that Sherbet Cup bilge….back to normal next time!

First off I’ll tell you that in the last decade we have seen winners aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….the last five winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7….so we have no dominate age grouping.

Weight ranges hopefully offer us a way in. Difficult to nail down an “absolute” positive because the winners of the last nine (we had no running in 2020), have carried:

9st 4lb
9st 7lb
8st 10lb
9st 3lb
8st 7lb
8st 8lb
9st 11lb
8st 12lb
9st 12lb

If I agree to accept that 8st 10lb – 9st 7lb is “best”….might not be….because the last four winners were, and they account for 50+% of the winners I’m looking at, then my first shortlist comprises:

SLIPPIN JIMMY
YEEEAAH
CUBAN ROCK

Eight of the last nine winners sat front five on the tissue and last year we had the first winning favourite in the last 10 years. I have no tissue right now so I’m thinking we’ll call that a dutch.

However, I’m liking SLIPPIN JIMMY for one extremely good reason. He is trained by Richard Fahey and he, in the last 10 years, has sent four for this race, won with one, placed with three.

For that reason alone, I will put him up as my selection but I really do need to see my figures and a market before even thinking about a bet.

RON – SLIPPIN JIMMY – 20/80

SEAN – FIRST GREYED

OMMS

All from Wednesday, which was the first day in what seems like years since we had wall to wall sunshine!

FAUSTUS – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/2
AJWADI – 10/1 > 15/2 – WON 6/1
BETWEEN THE COVER – 7/1 > 11/4 – WON 7/4F

Something for the weekend

RON – SIR WINSTON / SLIPPIN JIMMY – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN – GIUDEKK (5-55 LINGFIELD)

View Details

Plenty of racing chat in our first Podcast in July. We discuss the Racing League, have a chat about banned jockeys and jailed trainers, look at the drop in trainers numbers, chat about the Betfair now being beaten by industry SP when horses trade short and win and then comes the important thing...tomorrows winners!

The text of my side of the conversation below, for our hard of hearing members and visitors....and the lack of "match practice at the end shows as I lose control of my buttons!....should give you a laugh, if nothing else!

1.50pm Ascot

Well, this’ll be won by a 2-y-o, carrying 9st 2lb….I can say that with certainty because all 11 going to post are, and do.

The only place I can go looking for my winner is the market and the last 10 winners were to be found in the first four on the tissue, in eight of them so that’s not a bad place to start….first shortlist:

PRETTY CRYSTAL
SOPRANO
SYMBOLOGY
DAZZLING STAR

I’ll be surprised if they let SPORANO race again tomorrow as she has a hard race two days ago and with seven of the last 10 winners starting shorter than 11/2 right now, I’m looking to one of PRETTY CRYSTAL/SYMBOLOGY.

Currently 7/2 co- favourite with SOPRANO, and DAZZLING STAR on 9/1….and my way of splitting the pair I like right now is to take the more experienced horse as four of the last five winners arrived having raced more than once.

Not a race I’ve enjoyed working on really but hopefully a 20/80 landed.

RON – PRETTY CRYSTAL – 20/80

SEAN – DAZZLING STAR – 20/80 / E.W.

2.05pm York

I’m not going to waste much time on this palaver. Only five previous running’s, three won by Paul Midgley trained horses and he currently has the following running for him:

STRONG JOHNSON
GLORY FIGHTER
PROSPECT
MAJESKI MAN
LEODIS DREAM
VAN GERWEN

Nearly a third of the field from one yard….a race I’d never punt in a million years.

One for the Podcast? Well, I want a horse drawn low….no higher than eight and the only one of those qualifying is STRONG JOHNSON.

If your mad enough to bet here, have a small 20/80.

RON – STRONG JOHNSON – 20/80

SEAN – SOUL SEEKER – E.W.

2.25pm Ascot

This is funny!

I see the last 10 running’s of this race have gone to horses aged three, or four….so I’m seeing nine of the 10 qualify….the only horse that doesn’t is RANDOM HARVEST….and he has been smashed off the boards since this market opened….8/1 > 11/4

He is trained by Ed Walker, who has only sent one for this race previously, and it won….DREAMLOPER in 2021.

So, if he wins, I lose because I must work how I work, and trust to the runes.

Ok, a three- or four-year-old wins it. Now, if I apply that stat solidly, I have to select a three year old because they have won six of the last 10 of these.

CADEAU BELLE
ROSE PRICK
MYSTERIOUS LOVE
SEA OF THIEVEES
THORNBROOK
VETIVER

Now I hit a bit of a stumbling block as the market has been suspended for all bar the first two named. I had seen VETIVER greyed out as a non-runner, but she is now “bold” again so I have no idea what is going on.

I’ll work as if they all race.

I see no real weight range having benefitted previously six carrying less than 9st, four, including three of the last five winners, all carrying more than 9st so I need the market to put me wise now.

Only two winning favourites but none since 2015. Since then three winners at double figure prices, four returning 8/1, 4/1, 13/2 and 10/3….lets say we want a horse trading a single figure price but, not the favourite….which is a 4-y-o anyway.

THORNBROOK
VETIVER

Now you have a dutch, if both go to post….but I’m pretty sure VETIVER was a non-runner so it will be THORNBROOK….but even she is suspended on the tissue right now.

I’ve no idea what is going on!

RON – THORNBROOK – 20/80

SEAN - AMEYNAH

2.40pm York

A 15 runner speed test and, they’ll go like stink.

I’m looking for horses aged older than four here. The last 4-y-o to win was FLYING PURSUIT in 2017 and it’s funny but, between 2013 – 2015 inclusive, southern based trainers came up to take this with the favourite….it’s like they’ve been “warned off”….the last seven running’s all going to a Yorkshire based trainer.

My first shortlist is:

SUMMERGHAND
MONDAMMEJ
MAGICAL SPIRIT
HYPERFOCUS
IT JUST TAKES TIME
ZARZYNI
ABERAMA GOLD
ABDUCTION
INTERNATIONAL GIRL
MUSIC SOCIETY

I do not want a horse onside carrying less than 9st as only three of the last 10 have done it….and two of them carried 8st 13lb so….:

SUMMERGHAND
MONDAMMEJ
MAGICAL SPIRIT
HYPERFOCUS
IT JUST TAKES TIME
ZARZYNI
ABERAMA GOLD

Three gone.

Now we check to see what the market has up it’s sleeve. The winner has been front six on the tissue in eight running’s this decade so I’ll run with that:

SUMMERGHAND
MONDAMMEJ
IT JUST TAKES TIME
ABERAMA GOLD

Down to four.

Six of the last 10 winners were drawn middle to high….stalls 6-16 producing six of the last 10 winners, the last five winners drawn 6, 9, 14, 12, 6….so the best drawn of those historically are:

IT JUST TAKES TIME (10)
ABERAMA GOLD (12)

A nice two horse dutch but the one I’ll select for Podcast purposes is ABERAMA GOLD. Now trained by David O’Meara since Dalgleish packed up, he has conditions to suit (2-6 ground), a lovely draw and Mark Winn taking 3lb off.

RON – ABERAMA GOLD – 20/80

SEAN – HYPERFOCUS – E.W.

3.00pm Ascot

Have you ever wished the ground would opened up and swallow you?

My stats and trends here are based primarily on the ground riding quickish….four of the last five years it has been run on good to firm, once on good….currently, it’s soft.

I’ll try….that’s all I can do.

Eight of the last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged four, or five:

TACARIB BAY
RHYTHM MASTER
MONTASSIB
VAFORTINO
NORTHERN EXPRESS
LIR SPECIALE
BARADAR
STAR OF ORION
SPANGLED MAC
POPMASTER
FOOLS RUSH IN
HICKORY
MITROSONFIRE
MISTER BLUEBIRD

I ‘ve short list of 14 so if anyone listening wants to read the full Profiling just read the text on the Podcast page.

Weight ranges next and eight of those last 10 winners carried more than 8st 10lb so we’ll cull those that do not:

TACARIB BAY
RHYTHM MASTER
MONTASSIB
VAFORTINO
NORTHERN EXPRESS
LIR SPECIALE
BARADAR
STAR OF ORION
SPANGLED MAC
POPMASTER

That got rid of four. Nothing has carried more than 9st 7lb in that time period so we lose TACARIB BAY HERE….9ST 8LB….I can be pedantic!

RHYTHM MASTER
MONTASSIB
VAFORTINO
NORTHERN EXPRESS
LIR SPECIALE
BARADAR
STAR OF ORION
SPANGLED MAC
POPMASTER

Down to nine and market position next. We saw winners at 33/1 in both 2013 and 2014, a 50/1 winner in 2017 and a 20/1 winner in 2018 but generally and six of the last eight winners support this, you need to be trading a single figure price and so anything bigger than 9/1 in that last shortlist goes now:

VAFORTINO – 9/1
BARADAR – 13/2
SPANGLED MAC – 8/1

That’s my dutch.

In six of the last 10 running’s our winner has come from a draw higher than 14 and a double figure draw in eight of those races so looking for one, it’s BARADAR, who breaks from stall 24 and he’ll go on the ground….2-5 on soft….it just might be Ascot is his nemesis as he’s 0-3 here….but always runs well in these big field handicaps….he’s my 20/80.

RON - BARADAR – 20/80

SEAN – BIGGLES

3.15pm York

Only five runners…racing for £71k….usually goes to horses aged five or older, which rules out the favourite tomorrow. There have only been three of those winning this in the last 10 years anyway and the last was back in 2017.

I have a pair to work with, ROYAL CHAMPION and MASHHOOR and as horses shorter than 5/1 have struggled in this race recently, and purely for Podcast purposes, I’ll put up Johnny Murtagh’s MASHHOOR….arrives having rattled up a Curragh hat-trick and it could be that now he is a fully mature 5-y-o, he has “found himself”….we’ll see.

RON – MASHHOOR

SEAN – MY PROSPERO

3.40pm Ascot

A cracking good race, which it should be for the prize money on offer.

This will not take me long to box off as it’s a Group 1 and I’ll not be trying to make a silk purse from a sow’s ear.

I’m not keen on 3-y-o’s taking on their elders at this level just yet and the fact only three 3-y-o’s in the last decade have pulled this off, makes me look to older horses for my first short list.

BOLSHOI BALLET
DEAUVILLE LEGEND
HAMISH
HULUM
LUXEMBOURG
P OINT LONSDALE
PYLEDRIVER
WESTOVER
EMILY UPJOHN

No point discussing weight ranges so to market next and, whilst we saw PYLDRIVER winning this @ 18/1 last year, prior to that the winner had sat front four on the tissue in all nine….so:

HULUM
EMILY UPJOHN

One of that pair will hopefully prove better than the 3-y-o’s and if that is to be the case, I must come down (reluctantly), on the side of EMILY UPJOHN. The reason for that is HUKUM is a six-year-old and whilst I think he’s a proper serious racehorse, and my “guts” idea of the winner, four year olds have a better record and, she is trained by Gosden, who has saddled four of the last nine winners of this.

Not a bit confident but it’s EMILY UPJOHN for me, 20/80.

RON – EMILY UPJOHN – 20/80

SEAN – KING OF STEEL

OMMS

SAYF AL DALWA – 10/1 > 5/1 – WON 4/1F
TEMPER TRAP – 14/1 > 13/2 - WON 10/1
G’DAY AUSSIE – 25/1 > 14/1 – WON 9/1

Something for the weekend

RON – EMILY UPJOHN – 20/80SEAN – DAZZLING STAR – E.W.

View Details

This week Sean and I look back at the Dash fiasco, the Derby....how good (or otherwise), was it, ans we each make a selection for the five days of racing at Royal Ascot next week, before disectinf the races being used for the ITV7 and our own competition purposes.

ROYAL ASCOT PICKS

RON

TUESDAY – BUCKAROO (WOLFERTON)
WEDNESDAY – LUXEMBOURG (PRINCE OF WALES)
THURSDAY – ELITE STATUS (NORFOLK)
FRIDAY – TAHIYRA (CORONATION STAKES
SATURDAY – HUKUM (HARDWICKE)

SEAN

TUESDAY – NATIVE TRAIL (QUEEN ANNE)
WEDNESDAY – ADAYAR (PRINCE OF WALES)
THURSDAY – AZAZAT (RIBBLESDALE)
FRIDAY – TAHIYRA (CORONATION STAKES)
SATURDAY – WELLINGTON (KING STAND)

Saturday Racing

2.00pm York

It’s a good job we only do the Podcast for a laugh because I laughed out loud when I saw this. An all lady riders race, for amateurs. It is going to either kill or cure your ITV 7 entry, if you play that bet.

Last years winner returned 33/1, in 2018 it was 20/1, and in between those two, they came home 5/1 and 10/3….and all I can tell you is, the winner will be in the front nine on the tissue.

Age groups? They do not exist here. Winners aged 11 ,4 ,5 ,4 ,9, 4, 3, 9, 5 in the last nine years.

Seven have carried 9st 12lb or more but that rules out just five runners and one of those is the current second favourite, BOLLIN MARGARET.

If ever a race was for PODCAST PURPOSES ONLY, this is it and I am going to suggest DREAM HARDER might run well. I say might because I don’t know!

The horse is ridden by last years winning rider, who has had 16 rides in the following 369 days and not won.

Trained by Ian Williams, who provided Alice with the winning ride last year, it could be (and this is probably wishful thinking), he has targeted this race for horse and rider. The horse goes well for a lady rider and has been ridden by either Saffie Osbourne or Nicola Currie in nine of his 21 career starts….but he’s a maiden on turf.

I’m about to lose the will to live.

RON – DREAM HARDER – 20/80

SEAN – SARATOGA GOLD – E.W.

2.15pm Sandown

A lovely 13 runner all aged handicap and I should be skipping through hoops. So why aren’t I? Well, we have a 3-y-o trading favourite, that has raced just four times, and another fourth favourite, having seen turf just twice.

All I can do is follow the path and see where it leads me.

First, no three year old has yet won this, and 11 have tried. Four year olds fit best as they have delivered punters six winners in the last nine seasons this has been run, so my first shortlist comprises:

AUTUMN FESTIVAL
BALTIMORE BOY
NEW DIMENSION
ASHKY

Nothing has carried less than 9st 5lb in the last decade and unsurprisingly, they all carry more so, all make that sift.

Market position then eh!

In the last 10 years, if you were not sitting front three on the tissue when the tapes went up, then you were not winning this thing. In fact, if anything traded bigger than 11/2 in that span of time, you were not taking home first prize.

The only qualifier from that quartet is NEW DIMENSION and he will become the first winner to take this on seasonal debut since BASEM in 2013.

It is the week before Royal ASCOT….we won’t be dealing with the better horses and this weekend, of all weekends, should be a time for low staking. I’ll go 20/80 NEW DIMENSION.

RON – NEW DIMENSION – 20/80

SEAN – NEW DIMENSION

2.35pm York

RON – LIAMARTY DREAMS

SEAN – WILD LION

2.50pm Sandown

Another all 3-y-o handicap but just nine runners going to post and, plenty of back history.

It won’t take me a minute to solve this as it’s clear we need to be working with the lads here….they lead the girls 7-3 in the last 10 years and if you are not front three on the tissue then you have a snowball in hells chance of winning, just two outside the leading trio in the market winning this before.

Right now it’s 16/1 bar three so that looks to be rock solid and so one of GREAT STATE, PERDIKA or TAJALLA wins this.

My eyes keep getting drawn to TAJALLA. Two runs, two wins and his trainer, Roger Varian, is running a very decent 56% RTF figure right now. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact he has trained the winner of this twice, from just four entries.

Not tons to go on but it’s better than nowt and I’ll be rowing in with TAJALLA.

RON – TAJALLA

SEAN – GREAT STATE

3.05pm York

Just seven runners here, over a trip only two of them have scored over previously….QUICKTHORN and ROBERTO ESCOBAR

QUICKTHORN is 0-2 on the going as currently described and yet trades much shorter than ROBERTO ESCOBAR, who is not only 1-1 on the ground but also a course and distance winner (this race in 2021).

I know that the weights massively favour QUICKTHORN of the pair but if you need slower ground to produce that better official rating, I’d be very wary of taking 7/4.

Age stats massively favour the older horses, four year olds winning just three in the last decade and only on in the last five years. That gives ISRAR a mountain to climb at his first try over this trip and he again would seem to prefer slower ground.

He’s very lightly raced and hard to get a handle on but of the three named….and market positions say one of the front three wins this (eight of the last 10), I’m going 20/80 ROBERTO ESCOBAR @ 5/1

RON – ROBERTO ESCOBAR

SEAN - ISRAR

3.20pm Chester

A Class 2, all 3-y-o Handicap that has only seen four previous running’s and I have absolutely no solid stats/trends with which to melt this down to a single selection….which I have to do, for Podcast purposes.

Chester is obviously famous for it’s definite draw bias and I recall going racing there with the lads from my post office depot, telling them all they needed to do was concentrate on stalls 1-2-3, do not worry about the price they were, just pick one.

All six races…we still only had six races back then….were won by horses from those three stalls and at the end of racing a few came up and stuffed money into my jacket pocket. We cleaned up.

With that in mind and not a lot else to say about it, I’ll look at horses drawn 1-2-3:

SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT
LUNATICK
REIDH

Now, none of the winners to date has returned bigger than 6/1 and the only qualifier from that trio is SOPHIA’S DELIGHT.

Yet to finish out of the first three this season but up massively in grade and truth be told, I would not bet here if you threated to waterboard me!

RON – SOPHIA’S DELIGHT – 20/80

SEAN – MONTE LINAS – E.W.

3.40pm York

Tom Cruise turned this one down….a 22 runner Handicap for 3-y-o’s and a pair of the last five winners returning 25/1 and 20/1….here goes!

Obviously, a 3-y-o wins it.

In recent years horses carrying 9st or more have been most successful, with four winners in the last six years but for sure, I’d not let anyone be put off by horses carrying less….they have won five of the last 10.

Six of the last 10 winners were front five on the tissue but no favourite has won this since BODY AND SOUL in 2013 and only one has placed since.

The horses trading 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourite right now are:

QUINTUS ARRIUS
WASHINGTON HEIGHTS
CATCH THE PADDY
RABAAH

I’m going to be pedantic with my weight range and rule out QUINTUS ARRIUS, as he carries just 8st 10lb and his trainer, Kevin Ryan, has tried to win this with 11 entries in the last decade, placed with just one.

Six of the last 10 winners arrived having neither won or placed last time out and of the three left to pick from, the only horse coming though is RABAAH.

He’s around the 11/1 mark right now, drawn in stall seven, which looks fine given five of the last six winners were drawn 1-7….his trainer has sent five for this previously, placed with two, not yet won one. If you are looking for the target trainer here, it’s Tim Easterby….12 entries, three winners, one placed….he trains SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE (16/1) and NORTHCLIFF (33/1)

It is Mission Impossible but I’ll put up RABAAH as a 20/80

Ron – RABAAH – 20/80

SEAN – GARNER – E.W

OMMS

FINBAR’S LAD – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 12/1
RICH GLORY – 11/8 > 8/1 – WON 8/1
PUROSANGUE – 8/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/1

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. DOUBLE – NEW DIMENSION AND TAJALLA

SEAN – 2 X E.W. SINGLE & AN E.W. DOUBLE – NEW DIMENSION, MONTE LINAS

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Sean and I take a look back at the Guineas and the trials, before looking to nail listeners a profit from the seven races tomorrow that also make up the competition over at Post Racing....fancy playing?

Click here to get involved.

DERBY

They say fifth in the Guineas, first in the Derby and I thought DUBAI MILE looked like he’d at least hit the frame at Epsom….might be best at 10 furlongs like his dad but he finished third over that 12 furlongs.

I thought the Dante was won by the best horse on that day, THE FOXES travelled great and won well but the horse to take from it was PASSENGER, who dead heated for third after he was continually blocked off in his run. He’ll reverse that form and looks a Derby horse to me.

OAKS

SAVETHELASTDANCE was mighty impressive at Chester but I’m always suspicious of the form when something wins a race like that by 20+ lengths. The way she quickened though was amazing, especially on the ground they had that day. She looked to be struggling at one point but as soon as they hit the straight….off she whizzed!

SOUL SISTER was also impressive at York the other day and my feeling is one of that pair wins the Oaks, most likely Aiden’s horse if that form is right. That’s something you lonely really find out next time they run.

Races – ITV 7 in order

1.50pm Newbury

Down to seven runners now and I’ll only be a second boxing this off.

All 3-y-o’s carrying 9st 2lb bar one, RUMSTAR, who has a 5lb pattern race penalty, which most likely nails him to the floor tomorrow.

I can only see what has happened on the tissue in the last 10 years our winner has sat 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 9, 4, 1, 2, 1 in the market so if you look away from the front pair in tomorrow’s market, you most likely bet a loser.

The pair to work with are:

NOBLE STYLE
AESOP’S FABLES

The first named ran a good sixth in the Guineas, beaten less than six lengths and he will be much better suited to the quicker ground tomorrow.

That last comment applies to AESOP’S FABLES, who ran second on heavy ground, on seasonal debut last month.

That though was Listed company and with NOBLE STYLE dropping from Group 1 to Listed for this race, and rated 7lb superior to the Irish runner, he has to be my pick to land the odds on.

RON – NOBLE STYLE

SEAN – NOBLE STYLE

2.05pm Newmarket

Now we have 11 3-y-o’s in a Class 4 Handicap to try and work out….oh joy!

I only have seven previous running’s to try and knit a jumper, too so don’t expect this to have sleeves.

Obviously a 3-y-o wins it but from a weight range perspective, the only critter you would rule out is the 33/1 outsider YELLOW LION.

One of the other 10 wins it then!

Market position of our seven winners to date read: 3, 6, 3, 1, 1, 1, 7….so I’ll go out on a limb and say we want one of the front three on the tissue working for us.

CEANNA
ACOTANGO
TOTNES

A single figure draw is a must have….and they all have it. Arriving for this having finished in the first three last time out is another must have….and yep, they all have it.

However, only one of the last five winners arrived having won last time out and so, simply because I have to provide a Podcast solution, I’m going to say 20/80 ACOTANGO.

The other two won and whilst I hate punting maidens….they keep getting beaten for a reason….this one has only had four runs on turf and will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has ridden her twice, won on the all weather and placed second on him at Haydock last month.

RON – ACOTANGO – 20/80

SEAN – TRUE STATESMAN E.W

2.25pm Newbury

Just seven going to post here, too….everyone playing the competition must be landing points in the first two races at Newbury!

Four and five year olds have won the last seven running’s of this and tomorrow that will be eight, as all seven fit the age grouping required.

In the last seven years we have has five winning favourites, four of which have gone off odds on and in the last decade only one winner has returned bigger than 9/2 so one of YIBIR or HASKOY must be winning this tomorrow….it’s 7/1 bar that pair right now.

Tomorrow YIBIR has to give the filly 3lb but is officially rated 10lb superior to the Beckett trained horse. She wears a tongue tie first time tomorrow but unless that improves her by around a stone, we have another winning favourite here tomorrow. YIBIR for me.

RON – YIBIR

SEAN - YIBIR

2.40pm Newmarket

Another all 3-y-o event….in my other world I’d not even look at such races so damn your eyes ITV!

Trends do look like they might work though and if I’m right, this will take just a minute more to solve.

I want only horses carrying 9st or more. They have won the last four of these and six of the nine renewals I’m working with.

Prior to 2017, the winner could be any price, the 2016 winner returned 22/1….but since then the winner has sat front two on the tissue, nothing bigger than 5/1.

The only selection I can make is REVENITE. Currently 10/3 second favourite behind EMINENCY….who fails by 2lb to be my selection….dutch is you’re out to make a profit…..he has thrived since being gelded, has won his last two and represents Roger Varian who is, in fact, the last trainer to win this with one carrying less than 9st!

He’s running a superb 60% RTF%age right now and we’ll get a run for our money.

RON – REVENITE

SEAN – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS E.W.

3.00pm Newbury

I was really looking forward to working this race, even if it is a bunch of 3-y-o’s, several of which will be making handicap debut.

Obviously a 3-y-o wins it.

I’m going to set my weight range at 8st 10lb – 9st 5lb….they would account for seven of the last nine winners.

DESERT HERO will most likely go off favourite tomorrow and that’s a great spot to have on the tissue as the favourites have finished 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 2, 1, 1 so an absolute Placepot banker.

The winners of those nine races sat 6, 1, 1, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 1 so outside the front six means you ain’t winning this.

Right now they are:

DESERT HERO
EXOPLANET
BERTINELLI
ROYAL RHYTME
LIEBER POWER
BOLD ACT

Looking back at that weight range only BOLD ACT, on 9st 9lb, gets hooked!

DESERT HERO
EXOPLANET
BERTINELLI
ROYAL RHYTME
LIEBER POWER

I’m thinking a single figure draw might prove best as the last nine winners have been drawn 2, 7, 3, 3, 1, 3, 14, 8, 12 and if I’m right, only DESERT HERO and LIEBER POWER come through that sift.

Currently 9/2 & 7/1….that’s a dutch.

Both fit the “only had three runs” stat…four of the last five winners did, too.

The last four winners had all made seasonal debut before turning up here and of that pair the only one doing so….and my 20/80 for Podcast purposes, is LIEBER POWER.

This one had opened 14/1 and is now 7/1 so someone else fancies it, too!

RON – LIEBER POWER – 20/80

SEAN – LOYAL TOUCH – E.W.

3.15pm Newmarket

The swines changed the running order here and instead of an all aged handicap (now the 3-50pm race), we have another all 3-y-o rat of a thing to try and solve.

They have done this because the race we should be discussing is now down to just seven runners and I’ve no chance as this is the first running of this race, so not a scooby doo what’s going to happen as I need trends!

The front two on the tissue represent Godolphin but both arrive as beaten favourites….as do three of the front four on the current tissue.

The only one not a BF is POWERDRESS. She won here on debut as a juvenile and this will be just her fourth run, and tomorrow she drops from Group 1 to handicaps following her 51 length last of 20 in the 1000Gns.

Prior to that run she had finished a good third to MAJESTIC PRIDE in a Class 2 Conditions Stakes and what catches my eye is, the fourth horse in that race, HI ROYAL, then ran a huge race in the 2000Gns, finishing second @ 125/1.

POWERDRESS should be good enough to at least place here, if she hasn’t actually gone backwards.

Purely….and I mean purely, for Podcast purposes, POWERDRESS 20/80 for me.

RON – POWERDRESS – 20/80

SEAN – WAR GAME – E.W

3.35pm Newbury

Might be a Group 1 in “fact” but it doesn’t have the feel of one this season…..a very iffy bunch and we’ve certainly no BAAED or PALACE PIER in here tomorrow.

The tissue favourite is MODERN GAMES and he has lost as many races as he has won. His current tissue price is also longer than six of the last nine winners returned and only a fraction shorter that two others.

On official ratings we have four of the front six on the tissue within a couple of lbs of each other, with the filly LAUREL sitting second favourite on 7/2, having opened 8/1.

She is officially rated 9lb shy of MODERN GAMES and will have to be as good as RHDODENDRON, the last filly to win this in 2018, to beat the boys.

Gosden and Dettori have been working well together this week and I’ll make her my 20/80 to do it. I just don’t trust the lads to turn up I’m afraid.

RON – LAUREL – 20/80

SEAN – JADOOMI – E.W.

OMMS

Three of the best OMMS from the week just gone but there were many more!

REGIONAL – 14/1 > 8/1 > 7/1 – WON 5/1
MON NA SLIEVE – 16/1 > 8/1 - WON 17/2
CROUPIER – 20/1 > 10/1 > 9/1 – WON 7/1

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE

ACOTANGO
LIEBER POWER
LAUREL

SEAN – E.W. DOUBLE

WAR GAME
JADOOMI

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Can we ask that you please make a donation to a racing charity if you listen to the Podcast? It's a new initiative to raise funding for:

RACING WELFARE
THE IJF
THE BOB CHAMPION CANCER TRUST
GREATWOOD CARING FOR RETIRED RACEHORSES

If you click here you will be taken to the Clover Club website. Half way down the home page you will see four images with the words HOPE, FAITH, LOVE, LUCK written on them....as you hover over them, they will swing to reveal the name of a charity and that links straight to their own donation pages. Pick your preferred and please, don't forget to add Gift Aid!

We had planned on discussing the White Paper again this week but that was binned when they announced an hour before the Podcast that nothing is going to change just yet and it's very much a case of, "as you were!".

Sean and I both have a similar opinion on the announcement of the Quipco 18-26 Club, that will allow people in that age range to enter a racecourse for just £10 and, we look back at the extraordinary profit Produced by the Podcast selections for April....80+pts if listeners took the prices advised.

A DRAW BIAS TO WORK WITH?

Some draw stats here that pertain only to last year but, if they have not addressed this then finding winners should be like shelling peas at Newmarket this weekend.

During racing at this meeting last season, I must have messaged you a million times regarding the draw bias I was seeing on the straight course. You might not remember because we’ve all slept since but I have a weird memory and remember telling you about a race being run in 1433 that would provide us with the winner of a race in 1435….it’s what I do.

Ok, slight exaggeration but you get my drift.

It probably doesn’t matter where AUGUSTE RODIN is drawn but it should get us “thinking”….see what I did there?

I cannot believe they will not have carried out some remedial work on the track to stop this but if they haven’t, we’ll know soon enough and can fill our boots.

The draw of the winners over the straight course of that weekend last season were 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 7, 1, 1, 3, 6, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1 and that means close to half of all winners came from stalls 1 or 2….with anything drawn higher than seven having no chance of winning their race. No fewer than 14 of the 19 races went to horses drawn 1-2-3 and that’s something you would normally associate with Chester!

AUGUSTE RODIN has 12….a coffin if last seasons draw bias holds up…the winner of the 2000Gns last year came from stall 1.

NEWMARKET 2-15

Because we are doing this on a Thursday a tissue is hard to come by and I’d not trust it yet anyway. What I’ll do is update my text tomorrow but here I can at least help you to “build a horse” by using the stats we have available to us.

We most definitely need to work with the four year olds only. They have taken the last five of these, and seven of the last eight so my first shortlist contains:

TEUMESSIAS FOX
CAPITAL THEORY
CRYSTAL DELIGHT
VAYNOR

Got rid of seven already.

Next we go to weight ranges and seven of the last nine winners carried 9st or more and from that angle the only qualifier is:

TEUMESSIAS FOX

I would love to have an accurate tissue in front of me because if that one is trading front two on it, I’ll be in like Flynn. Six of the last eight winners and the last three, all sat front two in the market when those stalls opened so, I wait with bated breath to see if this Balding runner is fancied.

My provisional Podcast selection is….

RON – TEUMESSIAS FOX – 20/80

SEAN – TEUMESSIAS FOX

NEWMARKET 2-50

Don’t you just love these 23 runner all aged handicaps! Gone all weak at the knees I have!

Again, from an age perspective we can quickly ascertain we want a four or five year old only onside. If the trend I’m seeing persists then it’s the turn of a 5-y-o as they alternated either side of a six year old winning in 2016…4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4….but I’ll not dare suggest we take that at face value….first shortlist contains:

SAINT LAWRENCE
CHIPSTEAD
KHANJAR
LETHAL LEVI
BLACKROD
APOLLO ONE
STRIKE RED
POPMASTER
TANMAWWY
ADMIRAL D
GIS A SUB
PROBE
LEAP ABROAD

Ok, 13 is hardly a shortlist but we’ll be down to something manageable shortly.

Next, I’m onto the weight ranges of our winners….only one of the last nine winners carried less than 8st 12lb and that was back in 2014 and that 25/1 winner was also the longest priced in the last decade. We now remove the lighter weighted runners…8st 11lb or less….

SAINT LAWRENCE
CHIPSTEAD
KHANJAR
LETHAL LEVI
BLACKROD
APOLLO ONE
STRIKE RED
POPMASTER
TANMAWWY

Down to nine

Between 2014 and 2017 inclusive, this went to horses trading a double figure price in four of those five running’s. However, the last four winners have returned 8/1, 9/4f, 11/4jf and 13/2 so, no longer the minefield it was.

Applying that to the current tissue I’m swiftly down to one name:

TANMAWWY

Trading the 8/1 tissue favourite as I type and….if this is still significant….drawn 2….the second, third and fourth favourites are drawn 23, 22, 21….what can possibly go wrong!

RON – TANMAWWY – 20/80

SEAN – STRIKE RED – 20/80 OR E.W.

GOODWOOD 3-05

Only one previous running of this so I’ve absolutely nothing to offer up I’m afraid. I’ll produce Ratings for this race on Saturday morning but for Podcast purposes I’ll say MAGHLAAK, simply because the favourite won it last year….and he’s trading favourite.

RON – MAGHLAAK

SEAN – HONITON E.W.

NEWMARKET 3-25

Another 17 runner handicap….you must be spitting fur down there!

Once again you can run with horses aged four of five because if an older horse wins this….we’ve had three six year olds in the last nine running’s, they will not be found by me as the last two have gone in at 20/1 & 22/1….so the younger horses make up my first shortlist:

CADILLAC
NOTRE BELLE BETE
SAGA
DAWN OF LIBERATION
KING OF CONQUEST
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND
GREAT MAX
JIMI HENDRIX
DUAL IDENTITY
MAJESTIC
TOSHIZOU
HOWTH
TITIAN

We have only lost four so check out the website for full profiling.

Weight ranges, as usual, come next and just as we wanted horses carrying more than 9st onside for that last race discussed, here we want horses carrying less than 9st onside.

Only two of the last nine winners managed to carry more.

DUAL IDENTITY
MAJESTIC
TOSHIZOU
HOWTH
TITIAN

Now that shifted a good few and we are now left looking at just five.

Only one winning favourite in the last decade but, the winner has been front six on the tissue in six of the last nine running’s so….:

MAJESTIC

Only one qualifier….top end of the eight stone weight range but three of the last five winners fit that profile, he’s a previous CD winner, and a realistic 20/80.

RON - MAJESTIC – 20/80

SEAN – NOTRE BELLE BETE – E.W.

THIRSK 3-40

Another lovely 15 runner handicap and I’m in punting heaven…well, I would have been had the last three winners of this not gone in at 14/1, 18/1 and 66/1….from an age grouping perspective…horses aged 4, 5 or 6 please….that accounts for all bar SAFE VOYAGE, a 10-y-o

Weight ranges too….all over the place and if I even attempt to try and apply market position, I’m snookered behind the black….horses positioned 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 0 have won this recently and the only live stat I have is that relating to Michael Dodds.

He has sent seven for this in the last decade, won with one, placed with two others and on Saturday he saddles NORTHERN EXPRESS, the current tissue favourite. Favourites hit the frame in this more often than not and as they go 8/1 the field right now, I’ll put that one up as a 20/80 but be sure to check out THE RATINGS on Saturday morning.

RON – NORTHERN EXPRESS – 20/80

SEAN – SKILLED WARRIOR – E.W.

NEWMARKET 4-00

There you go, a Group race for you and the big one still to come!

We have a 17 runner field here and that’s the biggest in quite a few years. I’m thinking four year olds only here. They have five of the last seven running’s of this race and last year, when a six year old won it, the 4-y-o’s came home second and third, beaten a neck and half a length so….four year olds, please!

MANACCAN
KORKER
LIVE IN THE DREAM
SILKY WILKIE
GET AHEAD

Obviously weight ranges mean not a lot here with it being a Group race and I’ll head straight to market. We had a 20/1 winner of this back in 2016 but traditionally, if you are out of the front three on the tissue, you might as well stay in stables.

Eight of the last 10 winners would have produced a profit playing a front three on the tissue dutch, and the biggest priced winner after that 20/1 shot, is 8/1….MARSHA in 2018.

Any of that quintet trading a double figure price is now going to get binned:

MANACCAN

Again we are very rapidly down to a selection and stall 1 to break from. Lovely. That’s my 20/80.

RON – MANACCAN – 20/80

SEAN – TWILIGHT CALLS

NEWMARKET 4-40

I have had two of the last three winners of this, 10/1 & 5/1….three in four years might be asking a bit much!

It’s obviously not a great race for Profiling as it’s all 3-y-o’s, racing off the same weight so all I can do is trust to a few bits and pieces…..market the first port of call.

Seven of the last 10 winners sat front four on the tissue:

AUGUSTE RODIN
LITTLE BIG BEAR
CHALDEAN
ROYAL SCOTMAN
SAKHEER

We have two trading 8/1 so we’ve got five to work with.

As you can imagine, I’ve got this massive draw bias rattling around inside my head and from three, if that bias still exists, CHALDEAN must have a great chance. The others are all breaking from a double figure draw and I don’t know about you but both LITTLE BIG BEAR and SAKHEER look like sprinters, and ROYAL SCOTSMAN is trained by a bloke that has yet to win a 2000Gns and CHALDEAN beat ROYAL SCOTSMAN in the Dewhurst last October.

I reckon it’s a match between two trainers that have won this race in the last four years and with that draw to work with I’m hoping Frankie breaks, makes all, dictating from the front, and lands my 20/80 at the very least.

RON – CHALDEAN – 20/80

SEAN – AUGUSTE RODIN

OMMS

TIMELESS PIECE – 5/1 > 11/4 > 7/4 – WON 6/1
MUTABAAHY – 8/1 > 11/2 - WON 10/3
KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS – 25/1 > 14/1 – WON 10/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – TEUMESSIAS FOX

SEAN - HONITON

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Sean and I enjoyed this one....just over an hour of racing chat and seven races dissected, that will hopefully help you win out ITV7 competition.

Below is my side of the conversation in text form for our hard of hearing members.

1.05pm Sandown

We have 16 novices racing for the title Champion Novice….funny, I thought that was decided last month?

Anyway, with just four previous running’s of this to work with I have no way of applying stats or trends to it as all I have right now is two of the four have been won by six year olds and one each by four and five year olds.

Three have been won by horses carrying more than 11st 6lb and, three of the previous winners went off favourite and right now, nothing would qualify based on that little lot.

Ewe have a four year old trading favourite, carrying 11st 5lb and so purely for Podcast and competition purposes, and with the favourite having a more than good record in this, I’ll put up UNDER CONTROL with absolutely zero confidence, especially as her only start on soft ground to date saw her finishing 20th of 21 in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival.

She did win on very soft when trained in France, winning by just ½ a length at Fontainebleau but both wins this side of the channel have come on genuine good ground.

RON – UNDER CONTROL

SEAN – UNDER CONTROL

1.40pm Sandown

Well, everyone playing the game will score points here if their selection completes the course, just five going to post and JONBON comes out of Novice company for the first time. If official Ratings are correct….and can I refer listeners to an article on the website I posted up today about official figures….he cannot beat GREANETEEN, who is officially 9lb the better horse. In fact, the only runner in the race he should beat is the 25/1 outsider FUNABULE SIVOLA, who is 3lb his inferior.

So….why is JONBON 15/8 > 6/5 clear favourite with everything else being cut loose and drifting like barges?

I reckon both JONBON and EL FABIOLO are superior to the older two milers in training right now and I believe that if the ground is good to soft as promised….or getting quicker as the temperatures are rising right now….he’ll batter these and prove official ratings only mean so much.

Greaneteen has taken the last two running’s of this but he blows hot and cold….for instance in February he was third of four to FUNAMBULE SIVOLA, beaten 4+ lengths and yet you can have 25/1 about the winner that day, or 9/4 GREANETEEN.

I don’t want either….I think JONBON wins.

RON – JONBON

SEAN - JONBON

2.15pm Sandown

The “big one”….and a lovely 18 runner handicap to chew on.

Here we go….

I only want to be working with seven and eight year olds….won seven of the last eight running’s and so my first shortlist contains:

ANNSAM
TEA CLIPPER
KITTY’S LIGHT
ANNUAL INVICTUS
REVELS HILL
COOLVALLA
BROKEN HALO
MUCHO MAS

All I will say from a weight range aspect is that I do not want anything carrying 11st 7lb or more….only one winner from the 22 in that weight range has succeeded.

That though, has not been lost on the trainers here as none of that shortlist get removed here.

The market position of the winner though does give us something to work with.

KITTY’S LIGHT is trading favourite after dismantling the field in last weekend Scottish National and is, officially, 6lb well in here but whilst the jolly always runs well….placed third in the last two running’s and also 3rd, 2nd and 4th in the last nine years, they do not win this race.

I would not want to be sat outside the front seven on the tissue at the off, so those sitting 2nd to 7th on the tissue now, go forward:

ANNSAM
REVELS HILL

I’m now down to a pair, and that’s a dutch.

The one for Podcast and competition purposes will be REVELS HILL and my reason being is, ANNSAM is already 0-7 on the going as currently described, never tried this trip before, whilst REVELS HILL is 1-2 ground, 1-2 trip.

RON – REVELS HILL

SEAN – KITTY’S LIGHT

2.50pm Sandown

The winner of the previous race here last year now heads the market here, HEWICK best priced 6/4, with it then 9/2 bar.

Two stats to go to war with here are, you must be trading front two on the tissue, and you must be carrying between 11st and 11st 6lb….we have had, in the last eight years, five winning favourites, and three second favourites….don’t bother looking elsewhere for your winner than HEWICK, or SOLO.

Two things now point me in the direction of SOLO.

First, this is a jumpers track and whilst HEWICK won here last season, he has now lost his jockey in two of his last three starts. He also had a bad fall at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup and was legless when he hit the deck that day. If he is over that run, he’s a beast!

He’ll also most likely win this head in chest because on official ratings (those two words again), he is 19lb the better of the two horses named for selection.

I have to go with SOLO. He beat DATSALRIGHTGINO easily at Kempton and that one franked the form winning a Grade 2 at Aintree recently. He has won or placed in six of his eight chase starts to date, showed a wind-op had done him no harm when winning that race, and this is his second start since that operation.

At 9/2 he’s a 20/80 if nothing else.

RON – SOLO – 20/80

SEAN - HEWICK

3.05pm Leicester

A decent enough little eight runner handicap that will be run on the patchwork quilt that is Leicester….soft ground forecast.

It is the very first running of this race so I’m going to be of no use to anyone here I’m afraid but for Podcast purposes I’ll say the short priced favourite, AL MUBHIR, also racing second time following a wind-op, is possibly….no stronger than that….the most likely winner given he is just a four year old and open to improvement.

Pure guesswork but that’s all I’ve got.

RON – AL MUBHIR

SEAN – AERION POWER E.W.

3.25pm Sandown

Back to the jumpers and this is a wide open novices chase. They currently go 4/1 the field.

Six and seven year olds have dominated in recent times, but with weight ranges all over the shop….everything from 10st 8lb to 11st 12lb, and everything in between winning this, I’ll just tell you that the market position of the last eight winners suggests that outside the front three on the tissue, forget it!

So, if I apply those stats/trends, call them what you will, the only solution I have is HARPERS BROOK. Currently second favourite (they have won two of the last four), carrying 11st 10lb, and he’s a seven year old, which have taken four of the last eight running’s.

He’s my pick here.

RON – HARPER’S BROOK – 20/80

SEAN – HUDSON DE GRUGY E.W.

3.45pm Haydock

I was hoping more than 12 would go to post here but it is what it is.

My first shortlist is those aged four and five. They have taken seven of the last nine of these and that stat looks a weapon!

SPYCATCHER
RAINBOW FIRE
MONTASSIB
RHOSCOLYN
WITCH HUNTER
TUSCAN
TACTICAL

Six of the last eight winners carried 8st 8lb or more….so from that first list we lose:

SPYCATCHER
RAINBOW FIRE
MONTASSIB
RHOSCOLYN
WITCH HUNTER
TUSCAN
TACTICAL

None….so it’s market next….

Eight of the last nine winners were front six on the tissue and with five of the last six winners priced 8/1 or shorter, I’ll take forward:

SPYCATCHER
RAINBOW FIRE

We have a pair left….5/1 & 7/1 I’m seeing right now and a dutch.

The one I’ll work with is RAINBOW FIRE. Two reasons….I see only one winner in the last eight years from a double figure draw and SPYCATCHER has 9st 10lb to cart and I see nothing having won this before with more than 9st 8lb up top.

RON – RAINBOW FIRE – 20/80

SEAN – SPYCATCHER – E.W.

OMMS

MAPLE JACK – 6/1 > 3/1 – WON 11/4 – VERY STRONG
CHILLINGHAM – 6/1 > 9/4 – WON 9/4 – VERY STRONG
SECRET HANDSHEIKH – 8/1 > 8/2 – WON 9/4 - STRONG

Something for the weekend

RON – SOLO, HARPERS BROOK, REVELS HILL - E.W TREBLE

SEAN - SPYCATCHER

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I'm in pleats! At around 3 minutes 30 seconds Sean has a parcel delivered and his reaction is priceless! I've edited out the "silence" but left that bit in....worth listening to for that split second alone!

This week we look back at the Grand National, the protests that took place and say goodbye to Davy Russell....again!

We also discuss the eight races used for this weekends ITV7 Competition....work that one out....and below you have my side of the conversation in text form, with Sean's selections added.

1.30pm Newbury

We had a six year old win this in 2019 but the other nine in the last 10 years went to a four of five year old…5-4 to the younger horses right now.

In the last seven years the winner has never been outside the front three on the tissue and as weight ranges are as useful as a chocolate teapot in races like this, the winner is one of:

HURRICANE LANE
MOJO STAR

The last four winners were all making seasonal debut, as are that pair, but what sways me towards MOJO STAR is the poor record of the favourite in this. Only two in the last 10 years have pulled it off and given they race off levels and MOJO STAR only has to find 2lb with the odds on HURRICANE LANE, and you can have 4/1, I’m going 20/80 Hannon’s horse.

I should point out that Ralph Beckett has an awesome record in this. He has sent three for it in the last 10 years, won with two, placed with one….he runs MAX VEGA, who won this for him last season and it’s only the fact he’s now a 6-y-o that put me off him.

RON – MOJO STAR – 20/80

SEAN – HURRICANE LANE

1.50pm Ayr

Seven or eight year olds are the go to age groups here, the nine running’s going to six of the younger of those pair….but it’s 2-2 in the last four years.

You definitely need to be carrying more than 11st as six of the last seven have done so, and with regards market position I’m saying a place in the front three on the tissue is no hinderance because six of the last eight winners went off fancied so….:

OSCAR ELITE
SAIL AWAY

Priced to dutch right now but for competition purposes I’d go with SAIL AWAY.

Trained by Dan Skelton, who won this in 2019 with MOLLY THE DOLLY, and has placed with another from just three runners he has sent for it.

Nicky Henderson won it last year with DYSART and that one produced the best weight carrying performance since 2017, going in with 11st 12lb on its back….he trains the six year old favourite CITY CHIEF this time around, who tries to become on only the second six year old to win this, and also do it with 12st up top.

I couldn’t touch it.

RON – SAIL AWAY – 20/80

SEAN – CITY CHIEF

2.05pm Newbury

We have 14 x 3-y-o’s, all carrying the same weight so working as I do, the only port of call I have is the market and for sure, front three on the tissue is where you need to be….seven of the last nine winners were:

REMARQUEE
BRIDESTONES
MAGICAL SUNSET

It is pure guesswork from here on in as who knows how they have trained on from their juvenile season and the first two named have only been seen once.

Since this market opened, they have been falling over themselves to get on REMARQUEE – 6/1 > 7/2F and backed at all rates down. That implies he’s been showing up at home

I cannot be with once raced horses here though….I cannot find the last one that arrived so inexperienced, and took this?

DAN’S DREAM won it in 2018 having raced just twice but three or more runs is the norm and I’ll go 20/80 MAGICAL SUNSET.

Five runs on the board, won three of them, one over course and distance, and Hannon is in amongst the winners this week.

Just a 20/80 shout but that’s my shout here.

RON – MAGICAL SUNSET – 20/80

SEAN – BRIDESTONES

2.25pm Ayr

NEMEAN LION has been pulled out which has meant a reformed market.

This went to Ireland last year and this years favourite also makes the trip across, COLONEL MUSTARD currently at the head of the market @ 9/2….and favourites have a great record in this, their finishing position in recent times being 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2….so that one looks a Placepot banker.

Only one horse older than seven has taken this before and most recently you’d want to have six and seven year olds carrying your hard earned.

No eight year old has won it in the last decade but we did have a 5-y-o go in at 25/1 in 2018.

I’ll keep it sensible though, work with six and seven year olds, as they have plundered four of the last five running’s and from just 23 of that age group turning up for this in the last decade, three have won, three more have placed….a great strike rate!

ANNA BUNINA
PARISENCORE
ROYAL MOGUL

A dutch at the current odds.

Last year winner is the first named and is currently around the 8/1 mark and John McConnell, who trains the mare, has booked Ben Harvey to claim 5lb off her back….he’s a cracking pilot….watch out for him!

I’d not want anything carrying more than 11st 6lb on my side so for win purposes the current Irish trained favourite fails on two counts….age (8), weight (11st 8lb)

The market position of the last 10 winners tells me do not go looking for anything bigger than 12/1 and that would rule out both PARISENCORE and ROYAL MOGUL, who are currently the pair holding up the market!

They also both race from out of the market…although we saw one winning at Cheltenham in midweek winning from a stone out of the handicap….welcome to end of season NH racing.

RON – ANNA BUNINA – 20/80

SEAN – RUBAUD – E.WISAAC SHELBY

2.40pm Newbury

The Greenham…we once had members down there having a runner in this. We had no chance of winning it, but we were there!

Again, all 3-y-o’s, all carrying the same weight so all I can do is run this through market positions and see what turns up.

Seven of the last nine winners were front two on the tissue and right now they are CHALDEAN – 11/10 > 4/6….and KNIGHT – 8/1 > 11/2….it is then 12/1 bar the two so, I’m thinking we have this.

Both course and distance winners, but if official ratings mean a thing then CHALDEAN wins this pulling a caravan. He is rated 12lb the better horse so KNIGHT has to have improved a stone, whilst CHALDEAN needs to have stood still, over the winter.

CHALDEAN wins it, if he has trained on but 4/6….I’ll just watch!

RON – CHALDEAN

SEAN – ISAAC SHELBY E.W.

3.00pm Ayr

This won’t take long….seven going to post, and you could only possibly work with horses aged six or seven, as they tend to clean up in this race…no six year olds this time around so our winner will be aged seven.

More important than anything else though is market position. The last three favourites have obliged and seven of the last nine winners were front two on the tissue.

That means one of BALCO COASTAL or DATSALRIGHTGINO wins this tomorrow and at the weights it simply has to be BALKO COASTAL.

They race off level weights but on official ratings the Nicky Henderson trained horses is 6lb superior and brings serious recent form into this. Beaten less than two lengths by GERRI COLOMBE in the Scilly Isles and then last of seven to STAGE STAR in the Turners at the Cheltenham Festival.

Down in grade, I’d take 2/1.

RON – BALCO COASTAL

SEAN – BALKO COASTAL

3.15pm Newbury

I’ll have Ratings for this tomorrow so if they marry up, we might just have a bet! We have a 14 runner handicap, being run at my favourite track and if this were May/June, the betting waders would be on, let alone the boots!

First, a list of four and five year olds…and as we have no five year olds, it’s a four year old wot wins it!:

LATTAM
SAGA
ATRIUM
JIMI HENDRIX
AUSSIE BANKER
DAWN OF LIBERATION
GALIAC
TOIMY SON
GREAT MAX

Weight ranges next….8st 9lb and up….with 9st 4lb my upper limit. They account for seven of the last eight winners….:

LATTAM
JIMI HENDRIX
AUSSIE BANKER
GALIAC

Down to four.

Market position next and sitting front three on the tissue is a “must”….seven of the last eight were and now we have left:

LATTAM

The Haggas horse fits like the proverbial glove. He has been smashed off the boards since this market opened 4/1 > 2/1 and it is 8/1 bar.

It will be interesting to see what my Ratings come up with but if he’s not top three I’ll eat my Panama.

RON – LATTAM

SEAN - LATTAM

3.35pm Ayr

The Scottish Grand National and I’m thinking, like most sane folk, that MONBEG GENIUS is a “good thing” if he’s not had enough of racing this season.

His third to CORACH RAMBLER now looks pretty darned hot and if everyone has been reading their Newsletters the last three days, they know I have named one for the Punchestown Festival that finished in front of this one that day.

Age ranges are spread across the Highlands, as are weight ranges, in the last 10 years.

However, in recent times you’d be looking at this race and thinking an eight or nine year old (they’ve won four of the last five), and you’d look at the weight ranges again and maybe say 10st 6lb to 11st 3lb….market position….well, only three of the last 10 winners were inside the front five on the tissue but, two of the last five favourites have won and, the last two winners were sitting front two on the tissue.

I’m glad I do not Profile this critter!

I cannot really put much of anything together to be honest, using that lot and the only horse looking like a 20/80 to buttons is FLASH COLLONGES.

Trained by Paul Nicholls, he’s an 8-y-o…tick….carrying 10st 8lb….tick….arrives having won last time out (as have three of the last four winners)….tick….and is outside the front five on the tissue….tick

RON – FLASH COLLONGES – 20/80

SEAN – FAMOUS BRIDGE E.W.

OMMS

VELMA – 20/1 > 12/1 – WON 9/2
EAST BANK – 25/1 > 11/1 – WON 12/1
THE BANGER DOYLE – 14/1 > 6/1 – WON 9/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – LATTAM

SEAN – BRIDESTONES – 20/80

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Today the chat is about whether Equinox is "the best of all time", we look at why gambles being landed are not questioned in the way they used to be, has increased prize money led to huge field at Bath and we discuss just how the league table of jockeys earnings sees Japanese jockeys riding on the crest of that wave!

Below you have the Scribblings for all races being used for the ITV7 Competition for this weekend and you can join in that game by clicking HERE

Free to play, you just need a FREE SITE MEMBERSHIP and to be logged in to make your selections.

Saturday

Haydock 1.30pm

Only six previous running’s of this race so stats are very thin on the ground. It would appear that five-year-olds are currently the go to age group as three of the six, and two of the last three running’s of this race have gone to horses of that age.

If I take that based on minimal stats I’m a few bricks short of a wall but, for Podcast purposes, we will so I have this shortlist:

TOO FRIENDLY
BIG BOY BOBBY
AGGAGIO

It is a bit to early to start suggesting weight ranges or anything else really matters but for sure, carrying more that 10st 13lb to victory has proven difficult, as only one has managed it.

If that trend continues then the only horse going forward is the Gary Moore trained AGGAGIO.

Currently around the 16/1 mark he fits the stat that tells me you need to have finished in the first four last time out….which would have also disqualified the other pair.

Moore has booked 5lb claimer Caollin Quinn to ride and two of the first three running’s of this went to horses ridden by a claimer, including our friend down at Harry Fry’s yard, Lorcan Murtagh, who rode WILLIAM OF ORANGE to victory for Donald McCain in 2018.

I’ll put up AGAGGIO as a place only play and we’ll see what my figures come up with tomorrow.

RON – AGGAGIO – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – AGGAGIO – E.W.

Musselburgh 1.50pm

If this was June, I would have my betting waders on, never mind my boots! I love working with Musselburgh but, it’s only April so I treat flat racing on turf as I do radio active containers….and I never touch those!

All 3-y-o’s, we’ve only had seven running’s of this race and I have not got a clue what has trained on from two, and what hasn’t. Seven return from absences of 168 days or more and if you know what they are capable of tomorrow, “you are a better man than I McDuff!!”

A race I’d never have a bet on but for sure, trends say if you are carrying less than 8st 12lb, you ain’t winning this. That rules out the two that have had recent runs and won. Hey ho!

Ok….let’s forget stats and trends and look at something that appears to be significant.

The last five running’s of this have gone to the Johnston’s, or Fahey.

They train:

LION OF WAR
FINN’S CHARM
GINCIDENT

The last named (Fahey), is one that fails the weight range test and with three of the last four going to the Johnston’s, let’s say one of LION OF WAR/FINN’S CHARM get this gig.

Five of the seven winners returned a single figure price and of the two Johnston runners, it all points to LION OF WAR, currently around the 5/1 mark.

He was running in Group and Listed class last season, falling short, but never beaten far in those races.

If he has trained on he’s a decent enough 20/80 shout here.

RON – LION OF WAR – 20/80

SEAN – DUMFRIES – E.W.

Musselburgh 2.25pm

A 12 runner all aged handicap and I’m loving it. I dream of working on races like this!

Only five previous running’s but they have gone to 4-y-o’s (3), and 5-y-o’s (2)….and that rules out GWEEDORE, SPIRIT OF LIGHT and VOLATILE ANALYST….if we can trust trends that are just five years old….I never have done yet.

Weight ranges tell us absolutely nothing as we have a spread between 8st 4lb and 9st 7lb…I guess, if you really must, you’d say 8st 11lb to 9st 7lb….that brings in four of those five winners.

The last two winners have returned SP’s of 10/1 & 11/1, the first three 11/2, 6/1, 6/1 but two things of note would be the fact nine of the winners to date arrived having won, or placed, last time out.

The last four winners were Northern trained.

At Musselburgh we will be looking to work with a definite draw bias, low most certainly worth a few lengths. The five winners of this were drawn 4, 3, 3, 7, 3….see what I mean.

Market position….no favourite has managed to place yet and nothing shorter than fifth in the betting has won to date.

However, our winners position on the tissue has been….3, 2, 3, 6, 7

Let’s build a horse!

I want a four or five year old, carrying between 8st 11lb and 9st 7lb, drawn low, trading first seven on the tissue, but not the favourite, that did not win or place last time out.

If this thing wins, it’s Alchemy!

THE GATEKEEPER.

Drawn six, ran fifth last time out, carrying 9st 1lb, sitting fourth best on the current tissue and drawn six….he’s also a four year old and they won this in 2018, 2019 and 2021

I’ll say a 20/80.

RON – THE GATEKEEPER – 20/80

SEAN – AUTUMN FESTIVAL

Haydock 2.40pm

Again, only six previous running’s of this race and we are looking for needles in haystacks using stats and trends but here goes nothing.

To date….nine year olds have won three of the six, including the last two so my first shortlist consists of:

ENQARDE
TIDE TIMES
LADRONNE

Only one winner has carried less than 11st thus far but interestingly, four of the six winners carried between 11st and 11st 3lb and only one horse again qualifies based on those limited trends….LADRONNE.

A nine-year-old carrying 11st 2lb has won this race for the last two years and this 14/1 shot arrives having placed second last time out, something those last two winners had also done.

It’s the time of the season when, if you get a run for your money you have done well, and two of the six winners so far have returned 25/1 and 18/1.

Another place only play but….

RON – LADRONNE – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – JEFFREY’S CROSS

Musselburgh 3.00pm

A 14 runner sprint handicap and I’m in seventh heaven working on this….I cannot wait to produce figures for it.

The last nine winners have been aged five or older and that rules out five of them, the nine I’m working with at this stage are:

MAKANAH
ZARZYNI
CAME FROM THE DARK
BURNING CASH
THE BELL CONDUCTOR
DIGITAL
MID WINSTER
COUNT D’ORSAY
WATER OF LEITH

Weight ranges….well, in the last nine years we have five carrying 8st 12lb or more.

MAKANAH
ZARZYNI
CAME FROM THE DARK
BURNING CASH
THE BELL CONDUCTOR
DIGITAL
MID WINSTER

We can lose another two here….you can see the full Scribblings on the website because if I kept trotting out my shortlists, we’d be here all day….and now we move on to market position.

The winners of the last nine running’s were sited 1, 6, 1, 9, 7, ,0, 1, 1, 4 and with none of the five of those winners returning 13/2 or shorter, and us having had four winning favourites, I’ll say I want a horse trading front four.

MAKANAH
ZARZYNI
CAME FROM THE DARK

I have a three horse dutch and I’d be more than happy to work with that.

Looking for a Podcast play I want a horse that won or placed last time out as two of the last three had done so, as had six of those nine I’m working with.

Only one qualifier and I’ll say MAKANAH 20/80

RON – MAKANAH – 20/80

SEAN – WATER OF LEITH E.W.

Haydock 3.15pm

Yep, just six previous running’s of this event, too but five have gone to six year olds and I’ll not go looking to buck that trend. We have a slightly longer shortlist here….four qualify.

THE CHANGING MAN
ITSO FURY
HYLAND
HALIFAX

Two of the first three winners carried less than 11st but the last three have gone to horses carting 11st 4lb (1), and the last two winner 11st 6lb. Again, I’d not yet all pedantic about this but I’d be looking at around those weights for my winner now.

You need to arrive having won or placed first three last time out, as four of the last five winners have done so and, going forward, we take:

ITSO FURY (11st 7lb)
HYLAND (11st 6lb)

That looks a rock solid dutch to me. However, I’ve spotted something that points me in the direction of ITSO FURY.

He is trained by Jonjo O’Neill, who has trained three of the previous six winners whereas HYLAND is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has trained three for this race previously, placed with two.

My selection is ITSO FURY and I’ll possibly have me an Exacta with HYLAND.

RON – ITSO FURY

SEAN – MY BOBBY DAZZLER

Musselburgh 3.35pm

I do not produce figures for races run in excess of 12 furlongs because there are so few of them. Happy to produce a few Scribblings here though, despite only having had seven previous running’s of it.

Six of those seven races went to horse aged 5+ and three of the last five have gone to 5-y-o’s so, I’m with them.

SPIRIT MIXER
WICKYWICKYWHEELS
PLEASANT MAN
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR

Only one winner in the last five years has carried less than 9st 2lb and so, we are down to three….and a dutch.

SPIRIT MIXER
WICKYWICKYWHEELS
PLEASANT MAN

Two things lead me to suggesting SPIRIT MIXER is the horse to be with here.

First, you need to be trading front six on the tissue, and second, you need to be arriving having neither won or placed last time out.

WICKYWICKYWHEELS and PLEASANT MAN are sitting seventh and eighth on the tissue as I type and even those it was 569 days ago that PLESANT MAN last ran on the flat, he won.

Three of the last four winners were also making seasonal debut and only SPIRIT MIXER does that (PLEASANT MAN has been running over hurdles). He might have a huge fitness advantage and I doubt Nicholls has sent him up on a million mile round trip for a laugh.

Must be SPIRIT MIXER for me though….20/80.

RON – SPIRIT MIXER – 20/80

SEAN – PLEASANT MAN – E.W.

PLUS....

Randwick 7.35am

Now you’ve got me riding my unicycle again, and juggling five tennis balls at the same time!

The prize money is just wowzers, nearly half a million to the winner but I’ve only got three previous running’s to work with so stats and trends simply do not exist.

That one Gai Waterhouse bought from Jeff Smith when it was trained by Ian Balding, for the price of a detached house in London….£5.4m….ALCOHOL FREE….is in here and for the life of me I’ll never understand that kind of fee for a horse that loses more than it wins.

Thankfully, it was not my money and I imagine whoever did cough up that dosh owns a lot more than a London detached.

It is, if the information I’m reading is correct, going to be an absolute bog down there.

They have had 102mm of rain in the last seven days and it is still raining. When they put the going stick in, it came out at Ludlow!

There are five runners in here that have winning form on it:

STATEMENT
ALCOHOL FREE
SIRILEO MISS
HINGED
TIMES SQUARE

The win on heavy by ALCOHOL FREE was our Group 1 Coronation Stakes, in 2021, when she sluiced in…pun intended….so she has her ground, and her trip.

With nothing else to go on, and the owner surely wanting a bit of that fee back, I’ll go ALCOHOL FREE, who will probably go off favourite, and have SIRILEO GIRL for the Exacta….now I suppose I have to watch it!

OMMS

HARSWELL DUKE – 12/1 > 9/1 – WON 10/1
ALEEZDANCER – 14/1 > 10/1 > 8/1 > 9/2 – STRONG – WON 9/2F
UMMING N’ AHING – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 9/1

Something for the weekend

RON – ITSO FURY

SEAN – E.W. TREBLE - FAIRYHOUSE SUNDAY – NIGHT AND DAY 2-35, APPRECIATE IT 4-55, BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD - 5-30

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For the life of me, I cannot shake this cough off but I manfully ploughed on and hopefully you can sift out the winners and chat...I was going to edit the lot out but I'd be here until hell froze over!

My own side of the conversation below for our with Sean's selections.

Sean's Charity bet at Cheltenham is THYME WHITE in the Grand Annual @ 25/1....a bet has been struck for him at that price and if he comes good, all proceeds going to his chosen racing charity.

My early selections for the Championship races are:

Champion Hurdle – SHARJAH – 20/80 @ 50/1

Champion Chase – EDITEUR DU GITE – 20/80 @ 11/2

Stayers Hurdle – GOLD TWEET – 20/80 @ 10/1

Gold Cup – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS wins if he gets round but 6/4 is skinny. I’d be more interested in a 20/80 something bigger and STATTLER appeals @ 8/1. Never out of the first two over fences so far, jumps, stays and if anything happens to the favourite, he’s my play to pick up the pieces.

My Charity bet is....:

PERTEMPS FINAL – THE BOSSES OSCAR.

I thought he’d be much bigger than 8/1 but he’s down in the weights, likes Cheltenham, ran second in this race in this race in 2021, going off the 10/3 favourite and I have no doubt he’s been trained for this one race all year.

He ran at Musselburgh in a qualifier and that track would have been plenty sharp enough for him. He went off 40/1, ran a belter to finish third, which got him in the race (job done), and he’s only once been out of the first three home over hurdles, on good ground, which it seems we’ll be getting.

On to the racing:

Saturday

Doncaster 2.40pm

Only six going to post and we’ll have an odds on shot here, SHE’S A SAINT, that has tried this ground twice before and failed. She was beaten at 1 / 4 on good ground back in November and you would have to be of a very forgiving nature to go in at the current 8/11.

She is the most exposed of these over hurdles, having raced six times (won two, second in the other four), last time beaten by YOU WEAR IT WELL, who trades just 11/1 to win the Mares’ Novices’ at the Festival and she is rated 6lb the best of these so should win….but then, she should have been winning when she went off at 1 / 4.

The last two winners of this went in at 40/1 and 18/1 but prior to that anything going off bigger than 4/1 failed to deliver.

If I were to bet here it would probably be a place only APPLE AWAY, the only good ground winner in the field and, she has won over the trip, which none of the rest has even attempted yet.

RON – APPLE AWAY – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – SHE’S A SAINT

Kelso 2.25pm

A double figure field, 11 Novices heading to post, two of the pirates from Ireland and one of that pair trades the 10/3 favourite although FERONILY I on the drift, having opened 5/2 you can now have 10/3.

Last years winner was the Nicky Richards trained NELLS SON, who went in at 16/1 but that’s an anomaly. The winner of the previous seven traded front two on the tissue and right now they would be the Irish drifter, and NEMEAN LION, who opened 11/2 and is now best priced 4/1.

I am also seeing money for COLONEL HARRY 10/1 > 6/1 and on a stats based selection process I would be thinking the three horse dutch brings home the bacon.

That would be my bet.

If I was looking for that solo play to 20/80 then it has to be NEMEAN LION, who ran a belter in the Tolworth on January 7th, finishing third beaten just over four lengths. Back down in grade tomorrow and on the same kind of ground (if it remains good to soft!), that he last won on, he’s my selection.

RON – NEMEAN LION

SEAN - FERONILY

Meydan 2.25pm

Working with races abroad is a bit like me trying to learn to speak Esperanto as most of the trainers and some of the jockeys are simply alien to me.

What I am seeing though is a trainer called S bin GHADAYER has trained four of the last six winners of this and did actually have last year winner, HYPOTHETICAL, entered up but that one has since been withdrawn. He saddles FIRST CONSTITUTION, ridden by Mikael Barzalona but that’s the 33/1 outsider and with only two of the last 10 winners going off bigger than 11/2, I’m going nowhere near it.

I want a five or six year old onside….they have won the last five between them, and seven of the last 10 running’s, trading 11/2 or shorter.

Nothing qualifies.

We have a very short priced favourite in the 4-y-o BENDOOG and the closest thing I can find to one fitting my stats is LAW OF PEACE. Ridden by a jockey in form Tadgh O’Shea….3-12 in the last 14 days, he’s 8/1 from 9/1 and could be a 20/80. If we see further support, he’d be even more interesting.

RON – LAW OF PEACE – 20/80

SEAN - BENDOOG

Newbury 2.45pm (handicap)

The current favourite to win this, is the one I fancy to win another race we discuss next on here, ZANZA also entered for the Kelso 3-35pm.

Only seven going to post and I’ve only eight previous running’s of this to work with but, here goes:

You need to be arriving aged seven or eight. Six of the eight winners were and only one of the last seven winners, were not (that was a 10 year old fluke, that also ruined the weights stats)
You need to be carrying more than 11st….that fluke carried 10st 2lb!)
Market position and returned SP tells me I want nothing trading bigger that 8/1 but I also want nothing to do with the favourite as only a brace have won this and nothing since 2015.

Basing a potential selection on those stats I’m looking at just two horses:

GEMIRANDE
LORD BADDESLEY

They both carry the same weight as the “fluke” in 2015 but the front two on the tissue as I type carry 12st, and nothing has yet won this doing that, and they are both nine year olds!

Of the pair I’m “with” it would have to be GEMIRANDE I put up as my selection here as Venetia Williams does ok with runners in this race….won it in 2014 and has had three others placing, from the seven entries she has made.

Not a bit confident but the horse is very consistent and has no going or trip issues.

RON – GEMIRANDE – 20/80

SEAN – PAINT THE DREAM

Kelso 3.35pm

Disappointingly down to just five runners but Cheltenham is now just around the corner and in fairness when I first looked at this race we only had 10 lining up so 50% actually arriving ain’t bad!

The one I like the look of, ZANZA, is also entered to race at Newbury but if Hobbs sends him, I’m hoping he makes it two winners from the two runners he will have sent here in the last five years to run over this chase course.

He looks well in with the favourite, LE MILOS, as he’s officially 6lb the better horse, but only has to give him 2lb.

Traditionally the winner is front three on the tissue, which brings in THE SHUNTER, the winner of the 2021 Paddy Power Plate at the Festival that year. Another Irish pirate fogging my brain, I have absolutely no idea what he’ll do tomorrow but for Podcast purposes I’ll put up ZANZA, hope he goes to Newbury instead, then I don’t have to bet here!

RON – ZANZA

SEAN – LE MILOS

Meydan 3.45pm

We have 15 runners and £175,000 to the winner…..wouldn’t it be lovely if we had similar here every weekend.

It’s a Group 1 and the three at the head of the market are Godolphin owned, and it’s 12/1 bar their horses.

Charlie Appleby trains two of them, MASTER OF THE SEAS, the current 2/1 favourite, and VALIANT PRINCE, 4/1 > 5/1. Buick rides the first named as it obviously their first choice.

Appleby has won three of the last seven running’s of this and it looks all stacked up in favour of MASTER OF THE SEAS. Four of the last nine winners went off favourite, only a pair of the last 10 winners went off bigger than 7/1 and with Appleby on fire right now (seven winners from his last 24 runners and nine others running second or third), that might see him improve enough to beat the other Godolphin runners who, it has to be said, are officially rated higher than he is.

RON – MASTER OF THE SEAS

SEAN – REAL WORLD

Navan 4.20pm

A five runner Novices’ Chase to conclude affairs on the betting front…if you are betting!

The front three on the tissue all failed last time out, and have yet to be given an official handicap mark. One of them will win it though but a three horse dutch at current odds produces a loss so that’s a non-starter!

Mullins trains two of them, Elliott the other one…no shocks there, eh!

We have a pair trading 2/1, with HA D’OR ON 11/4

FLAME BEARER, the Mullins joint favourite, was beaten 63 lengths last time out, the Elliott trained joint favourite, HOLLOW GAMES, was hammered 22 lengths last time out, and HA D’OR, who went off favourite to win his race, got slam dunked by 46 lengths.

To get me to have a bet here, you would A) have to give me the money and B), hold a gun to my head and force me to hit the bet button.

Jockey bookings suggest FLAME BEARER is the Mullins preferred and as he has a 2-1 lead over Elliott based on winners in the last six years this race has been run, I’ll use that one as a Podcast selection but not a snowball in hells chance I bet here.

RON – FLAME BEARER

SEAN – HA D’OR

OMMS

THANKSFORTHEHELP – 8/1 > 7/2 - WON 9/2
EATON COLINA – 12/1 > 10/3 – WON 3/1
THE THAMES BOATMAN – 8/1 > 2/1 – WON 6/4

Something for the weekend

RON – NEMEAN LION / GEMIRANDE – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN – REAL WORLD / FERONILY

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This weeks Podcast dissects the eight races being used for competition purposes this week, and we char about the brilliant Milton Bradley, who sadly passed away this week, the brilliance of Paul Townend and the initiative being trialed at Fontwell

Below is my side of the racing discussed and you can choose to use, or ignore our advice when making your competition selections!

CHELTENHAM 11-40

Obviously this will be won by a 4-y-o and as only one filly has won this previously (went off 1/7 to do so), I feel safe in saying we can rule out the current lady trading around 80/1.

I’d usually go looking for a Nicky Henderson trained runner as he has won four of the last nine running’s but he’s not represented this year.

Interestingly the Irish have started to target this race, taking two of the last three.

Seven of the last nine winners were sitting front two on the tissue and right now they are:

COMFORT ZONE
JUPITER DU GITE

They are also the only runners in this race with winning form on the going as currently described and as both arrive having won last time out, which is a definite requirement (seven of the last nine winners did so), I’m extremely confident one of them wins.

You can dutch to make a profit or simply punt COMFORT ZONE to be come the third Irish trained winner in the last four running’s.

For Podcast and competition purposes, I’ll put him up but it’s the dutch I’ll be playing.

RON – COMFORT ZONE

SEAN - SCRIPTWRITER

CHELTENHAM 12-10

This has a whiff of the difficult about it and when you are using races for competition purposes, you don’t want everyone bagging 10 points for nailing an odds-on favourite.

It’s seven-year-olds you want to be working with as they have won five of the last nine. In fact, it’s five of the last seven.

From a weight perspective, we want to be looking 10st 11lb – 11st 7lb….doing that would have located seven of the last nine winners for that shortlist alone.

The market has been very informative and for sure, to date, you want nowt to do with the horse trading favourite. Only three have placed but you also need to be looking away from horses trading a double figure price. Only one of the last seven winners went off bigger than 9/1.

Looking at the form figures of those arriving to run in this race in previous years, eight of the last nine winners arrived having finished 1st or 2nd last time out….the other one finished third so, arriving in form counts for plenty.

So, I want a horse trading front seven on the tissue but a single figure price. It must have won or placed last time out, be carrying more than 10st 10lb and lass than 11st 8lb.

Seven year olds preferred.

The only qualifier is the current tissue favourite FIRE DANCER.

I need it to break the bad run for favourites but I’m in!

RON – FIRE DANCER

SEAN – STAGE STAR E.W.

CHELTENHAM 1-50 (Handicap)

A 17 runner handicap and if you can smell burning, it’s just me rubbing my hands together!

I’ll produce a “Profiling-Lite” for this and we kick off with age-groupings’ and if you look away from horses aged 6, 7 or 8 you are most likely punting a loser. Eight of the last nine running’s went to horses of those ages, four of the last six going to the older horses.

In the weight ranges of the last nine winners I spy a preference for horses carrying 10st 6lb or more but I’d shy away from horses carrying more than 11st 9lb. Two have won carrying 11st 12lb but the odds are against them.

Market position looks to be very important. We had a 12/1 winner in 2017 but generally it’s likely the winner is in the front three on the tissue at the off….six of the last nine winners support that stat.

Two trainers have targeted this in the last decade, Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has sent nine for it, won with two, placed with two, and Venetia Williams, who has exactly the same record.

Twiston-Davies saddles GUY, currently around the 20/1 mark and drifting….right age though.

Venetia saddles BRAVE SEASCA, who is around 11/1 but has to carry a huge weight…12st will surely stop it here.

The three qualifiers based on stats are:

FUGITIV
IL RIDOTO
YOUR DARLING

The middle named is a six year old trained by Paul Nicholls who won this with FRODON when that superstar was a six year old.

If you select any of that trio for your competition entry you’ll surely get a run for your money….and some points.

For punting and Podcast purposes though, I’ll go with YOUR DARLING, who is the only one of the trio proven over this trip.

RON – YOUR DARLING – 20/80

SEAN – IL RIDOTO E.W.

CHELTENHAM 2-25

Only six going to post so everyone scores points here….if their selection completes!

The only runner I’d rule out for win purposes is old FRODON….he won this in 2019 but at the age of 11 I’ll be stunned if he repeats that.

If you want a minimum of 5 points here you select PROTEKTORAT….five of the last six favourites have won or finished second, the other ran third.

Only one of the last nine winners went in priced bigger than 7/1 and right now that means only one of two wins this tomorrow:

PROTEKTORAT – 13/8
NOBLE YEATS – 2/1

The only previous winner of this in the time span I’m looking at, to have won carrying the weight they both carry, was MANY CLOUDS so if either lives up to my billing, they are serious kit

On official figures PROTEKTORAT is 3lb the better horse tomorrow but I think he’s better suited to tracks like Haydock and Aintree and if I’m right, he’ll arrive at the final fence needing oxygen with NOBLE YEATS, who won last year’s Grand National as a novice, cantering all over him.

I have to go with the proper stayer here and will be on NOBLE YEATS.

RON – NOBLE YEATS

SEAN - PROTEKTORAT

CHELTENHAM 3-00

Can PAISLEY PARK make it four Cleeves on the bounce?

He proved last time out that even as a crusty, he still has it.

Thing is, the last 11 year old to win this was KNOCKARA BEAU @ 66/1 and as much as I love the horse, I have to swerve him for punting purposes simply based on the age stat alone.

Thing is, what do you oppose him with?

The second favourite, DASHEL DRASHER, is mixing chasing and hurdling and also arrives “old”….a 10 year old now and one that has never won beyond 2 miles 5 furlongs.

I’d not have a bet on either of the front two on the tissue but at the same time, market stats tell me that if you do not, you lose money as seven of the last nine winners were front two!

The two that were not were sitting 6th best and right now that’s the French challenger GOLD TWEET. He’s officially 25lb inferior to PAISLEY PARK and has never won over this kind of trip….what’s he doing here?

I guess it is a race I’ll not have a penny piece on but for the purposes of the Podcast, will name PAISLEY PARK as my winner because on all evidence, none of the others are good enough.

RON – PAISLEY PARK

SEAN – PAISLEY PARK

CHELTENHAM 3-35

More than anything, my concern at this point is how bad will the ground be after it has been mutilated during the course of the afternoon?

If it rides “proper” in inverted commas, then I expect the winner to be a five or six year old….the last nine have been….trading 4/1 or shorter….and in the front three on the tissue….eight of the last nine winners were.

That being the case then only one of PEMBROKE or HENRI THE SECOND can possibly win this race.

You need to be arriving having won last time out….eight of those previous nine winners had taken home first prize last time out.

If I apply the weight stats….which I will now….then I have to drop HENRI THE SECOND, as he carries 11st 10lb and the last four winners all carried 11st 5lb….which PEMBROKE does.

Also, PEMBROKE is officially the better horse by 3lb and yet gets 5lb off HENRI THE SECOND.

Has to be PEMBROKE.

RON – PEMBROKE

SEAN - PEMBROKE

DONCASTER 1-35

This could be down to five runners soon as SAINT SEGAL runs today so again, everyone should score points, if their selection completes the course.

Good horses have won this in the past, SHISHKIN in 2021 but I don’t see that kind of quality here tomorrow.

If the market stats hold up then it will be won by BOOTHILL and I’d love to see Harry’s horse do it. He is currently trading favourite and the last five wearing that mantle have taken this race. In fact seven of the last nine favourites have won this and I’ll not go all Racing TV presenter and look for smoke to blow up your backsides….BOOTHILL wins it!

RON – BOOTHILL

SEAN - BOOTHILL

DONCASTER 2-40

We’ll finish with a Novices’ staying hurdle, 10 runners going to post and it looks a belter!

Ag groupings….well, the last four winners have been aged 5, 6, 7, and 8….but six year olds look polished here, with five of the last nine winners being from that age group.

They all carry 11st tomorrow so no weight range advantages here.

Market position stats looks spot on though and only two of the last nine winners sat outside the front three on the tissue at the off.

If I adhere to the market stats….and I will…then my winner is STAY AWAY FAY.

A six year old, front three on the tissue, won last time out, as did six of the last nine winners, and the current second and third favourites representing an age group…seven….that has only produced one winner from the 18 that have represented it in the last decade.

RON – STAY AWAY FAY

SEAN – IDALKO BIHOUE E.W.

OMMS

ALL GOWRAN PARK ON FRIDAY!

1-40 - HANDS OF GOLD - 12/1 > 6/1 > 9/2 - WON 10/3

2-50 - CAREFULLY SELECTED - 9/1 > 6/1 > 4/1 - WON 9/2

3-55 - BLUEBELL DIVA - 8/1 > 9/2 > 2/1 – WON 7/2

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE – YOUR DARLING, FIRE DANCER, STAY AWAY FAY

SEAN – E.W. DOUBLE – SCRIPTWRITER, IDALKO BIHOUE

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The racing this week has been a dogs backside but it brightens up from tomorrow and we've had a good natter about racing issues, especially the crazy amounts spent on PTP horses, and offered up selections on a good few races across Saturday and Sunday

Below you have my opinion on the races discussed, for our hard of hearing members/readers.

Wetherby 12.47pm

It’s just typical of the time of year that we are going to be talking mostly Novices. We’ll also be talking racing with not a lot of back history to them, this race, for instance, just three previous running’s and no stats to play with at all.

The tissue I’m looking at suggests one of three wins it because the other quartet are 33/1 or bigger.

It’s a headscratcher as I say because it such a young race but the favourite, HITCHING JACKING, had the form of his win let down when the horse he beat at Uttoxeter got turned over @ 1/3 up at Ayr.

The third favourite, GALUDON has yet to even place in two hurdles races, the last he went off 5/4 to win.

That leaves me with the second favourite CHOOSETHENEWS, who won on debut for Mark Walford, is unbeaten in two (one a PTP in Ireland), and if the horse he beat in that PTP, by 25 lengths, lands the odds in the Sedgefield 2-20 (I’ll just check that result now!)….

I’ll run with the Walford runner but no confidence in the selection at all.

RON – CHOOSETHENEWS

SEAN - CHOOSETHENEWS

Warwick 1.50pm

Another small field Novice event, just four runners….interesting though.

Gordon Elliott sends one over for it, THE GOFFER, who was beaten 11 lengths last time out by one that we’ll be discussing for tomorrow, HA D’OR.

Paul Nicholls trains the current favourite, COMPLETE UNKNOWN and as he has won the last two running’s plus the one run in 2013….the last two winning at odds on, you have to respect it.

However, I’m going to put up GALIA DES LITEAUX. Something was clearly expected last time out as she went off at just 5/2 to beat THYME HILL and MCFABULOUS.

She made a heck of a mistake at the second and that knocked her confidence big time.

She might come out tomorrow and we find the fences scare her stiff now but she sluiced up on chasing debut at Bangor in November beating MIAH GRACE, who franked that form winning next time up.

Again, no confidence in this selection because of the “ifs, buts and maybes”, but she’s the right age group….seven….as is the favourite (they’ve won eight of the last 10 of these), is rated only 1lb behind the favourite on official ratings, yet gets 2lb.

Obviously if she hits a fence like she did last time we’re scuppered, but I’ll post her up as my selection here.

RON – GALIA DES LITEAUX

SEAN – THE GOFFER

Kempton 2.05pm

Sheesh, this reads like a veterans race!

Three of the six are 10 or older. Only two horses aged older than nine have won this, with six of the last nine winners seven or eight.

If I apply those stats then only PIC D’ORHY can win this but since the market opened he is 11/10 > 11/8.

A previous CD winner though and Harry Cobden rides….that’ll do for me.

It’ll be interesting to see how ANGELS BREATH runs….been off the track for 1121 days after winning a two horse race for Nicky Henderson in December 2019. If your memory is good you’ll remember him beating FIRST FLOW easily in the November that year and that horse was unbeaten in six races through 2020.

RON – PIC D’ORHY

SEAN – ANGELS BREATH

Warwick 2.25pm

Another Novice event but we get to see the horse we both fancied last week, KNOWSLEY ROAD. He was pulled out then but he’s 10/3 favourite for this right now.

One in my 20/80, GINNY’S DESTINY, sits second favourite and he bolted up last time out @ 18/1, beating another of tomorrow’s runners, MEXICO, nearly nine lengths in the process.

Only 7/2 to follow up that win tomorrow, I have to follow my own 20 To Follow list and run with him.

Seven of the last 10 winners of this were priced 7/2 or shorter and the trainer of my selection won this in 2021 with ADRIMEL. The trainer of KNOWSLEY ROAD, Paul Nicholls, has never had one run in this, in that same time span.

GINNY’S DESTINY is a previous CD winner, is rated 2lb superior to KNOWSLEY ROAD.

We do have a massive negative….no seven year old has won this in the last 10 years, hence my going 20/80.

RON - GINNY’S DESTINY – 20/80

SEAN – KNOWSLEY ROAD

Kempton 2.40pm (handicap)

A proper race. Give me a 20 runner handicap any day of the week!

Eight of the last 10 running’s of the Lanzarote have gone to horses aged 6, 7 & 8 so my first shortlist comprises of 19 of the 20 runners….only Jonjo’s PETIT TONNERE get’s binned as he’s a five year old.

We have seen 16 of that age group try to win this and only one has won, another has placed. That winner came way back in 2015.

He also carries 11st 8lb and nothing in the last 10 years has carried more than 11st 7lb.

Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 10st 10lb and 11st 7lb so I’ll go with:

COBBLERS DREAM
QUINTA DO MAR
STAG HORN
HARBOUR LAKE
SHANTOU EXPRESS
WEST BALBOA
FIFTY BALL
OUTLAW PETER
UP FOR PAROL
MARK OF GOLD

Half the field gone at that stage.

Next I’m looking at market position and whilst we had a 66/1 winner in 2021 only last years winner, COBBLERS DREAM, has come home a double figure price. Favourites have an awful record, just two winners in the last decade, three of the last four not even finishing the race.

From that list only one horse qualifies….WEST BALBOA.

Currently a solid 9/1 on the tissue that’ll be my 20/80 but I’d be nuts not to point out that the current favourite travels over from Ireland, has been backed 13/2 > 5/1 and is the only horse in the front five on the tissue that represents the dominant age group, which is six.

RON – WEST BALBOA – 20/80

SEAN – SCARFACE E.W.

Fairyhouse 3.22pm

Would you Adam and Eve it….another Novice event. Nine runners, seven of which are trying this trip for the first time, four have never raced on the going as currently described and the current tissue favourite is one of those, is already 0-1 at the trip and never run at the track.

Only eight previous running’s of the race but with four of the last five going to seven year olds, I’ll run with that.

Only one winner has returned bigger than 4/1 so if the runes speak true, one of CLONBURY BRIDGE or MUST BE OBEYED wins this.

MUST BE OBEYED has to cart 12st and nothing in the past has won carrying more than 11st 7lb so it has to be CLONBURY BRIDGE for me, 20/80.

RON – CLONBURY BRIDGE – 20/80

SEAN - INNOVATOR

Sunday

Punchestown 12.10pm

When I looked only three of the five entries had jockeys booked to ride and the pair that don’t have absolutely no chance of winning this.

Stats say only two horses can win this, IMPAIRE ET PASSE or SHECOULDBEANYTHING….and she could, too!

Mullins has won six of the last 10 running’s of this and Elliott two. Between them they have been responsible for the six of the favourites that have won this in the last nine years.

I’ll keep it simple….whichever of the two they make favourite, wins the race.

RON – IMPAIRE ET PASSE

SEAN – IMPAIRE ET PASSE

Punchestown 2.10pm

It’s just typical Irish Graded racing. Small field…only seven in here, it could have been worse, it might yet be as one has an alternative entry at Fairyhouse tomorrow….and I only have five previous running’s to work with, four of which have gone to the favourite.

The last three winners have gone off 4/7, 1/2 and 1/2 ….but this has a more competitive feel to it with the winner most likely coming from HA D’OR, JOURNEY WITH ME or MINELLA CROONER…all were winners last time out.

No six year old has won it yet so I’ll drop HA D’OR, who will now win by 20 lengths and go odds on for the Irish Arkle on the day I fly out for my holiday!

Of the other pair, and with absolutely no confidence at all, I’ll go for JOURNEY WITH ME. He is a winner on heavy, which they have over there, he is 3-4 at the trip, whilst MINELLA CROONER is 0-1 trip and never raced on heavy.

Far to many question marks for me to even think about betting and anyway, my phone will be on airplane mode but JOURNEY FOR ME, for Podcast purposes only!

RON – JOURNEY WITH ME

SEAN – HA D’OR

OMMS

BOLLIN NEIL – 13/2 > 11/2 – WON 9/2
CALMLY – 13/2 > 11/2 > 15/2 – WON 7/1
ACED IT – 11/1 > 8/1 – WON 5/2

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE – GINNY’S DESTINY, CHOOSETHENEWS, CLONBURY BRIDGESEAN – BLOODS DESTINY

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This week we look at the retirement of both Fredy Head and Mark Johnston, ask, should we bother racing during the fortnight of the flu jabs and, is racing on it's death bad?

I certainly hope not as I reckon I might have found the winner of the 2024 Brown Advisory Chase at that Cheltenham Festival!

Please find below my side of the Podcast conversation for our hard of hearing members/readers.

Sandown 12.05pm

Currently five going to post but it’ll be four maximum as ACTIVE DUTY runs in the 2-30 at Ludlow this afternoon and is a very strong OMM.

Check out my Post Racing 20 To Follow and you’ll see the name BO ZENITH in that list.

I have been waiting….and waiting….for this horse to appear as he’s reckoned to be the best of Gary Moore’s juveniles and as good as PORTICELLO

There is a race run over in France for unraced over obstacles called the Prix Grandak, FRODON won it in 2015, and PORTICELLO won it in 2021….BO ZENITH won it in 2022.

The third and fifth placed horses in last years renewal went on to win and James Reveley reckons that race was very strong.

He’s 8/13 to win tomorrow….will be shorter after they withdraw ACTIVE DUTY, and as the last four favourites have win this race, I’d take him to make it five on the bounce.

RON - BO ZENITH

SEAN – BO ZENITH

Wincanton 12.20pm

I was going to put up KNOWSLEY ROAD but they’ve pulled him out!

Paul Nicholls has a brilliant record in this race, three winners and four placed from nine entries and he still has DE WANTER WARRIOR and IMPREVU DU LARGE running for him, the last named racing second time following a wind-op.

Bryony Frost rides DE WANTED WARRIOR but he was 69 lengths behind KNOWSLEY ROAD at Chepstow and if either of that pair wins here, I’ll lose money.

The winner now has to be TOP TARGET. He arrives with experience and only one of the last five winners of this had fewer than four runs before turning out here.

The last four winners arrived having finished runner up, or winning and on all stats/market position etc, Kim Bailey’s wins this dancing!

RON – TOP TARGET

SEAN – PEVERLEY WOOD E.W.

Sandown 12.40pm

Only five in here again and as the winner has sat front two on the tissue in nine of the last 10 running’s, it makes sense to concentrate on LOVE ENVOI, the current odds on favourite, or MARTELLO SKY, the 7/4 second favourite….it’s 7/1 bar that pair.

Both are previous CD winners, but I have to go with LOVE ENVOI, who is rated 4lb the better horse on official figures, and gets a 1lb off MARTELLO SKY.

MARTELLO SKY won this race last year and Harry Fry won it the year before with WHITEHOTCILLIFILI and I’m hoping Harry gets his hands on the prize again. Everything suggests he’s most likely to do so.

RON – LOVE ENVOI

SEAN – LOVE ENVOI

Sandown 2.25pm

The Tolworth, the race won by CONSITUTION HILL last year @ 2/5….no odds on shots this time though and since it opened, the market has been very interesting.

AUTHORISED SPEED and TAHMURAS have fluctuated at the head of the market, as had the Irish trained ARCTIC BRESIL, who is currently third best at 10/3, that other pair now joint favourite on 2/1.

L’ASTROBOY, trained by Evan Williams opened 25/1 but he has shortened as others have pulled out.

I’ve been mighty impressed with Gary Moore’s AUTHORISED SPEED. When you watch the Cheltenham Festival Bumper you know that the following season, the first 10 might all make more than decent hurdlers and the winner of that race this year, FACILE VEGA, looks a superstar….but AUTHORISED SPEED was only 11 lengths off him at Cheltenham and has won his two runs over hurdles by 11 lengths each time.

Paul Nicholls trains TAHMURAS and he has won three of his four runs to date. However, he was beaten in his Bumper by L’ASTROBOY and in his second Bumper run beat BLOW YOUR WAD just under two lengths.

BLOW YOUR WAD is in here too, having landed a touch last time out (he was an OMM!), and he’s around 33/1, compared to the 2/1 TAHMURAS.

Paul Nicholls has sent six for this race in the last 10 years and only had two place….it’s that stat that points me in the direction of AUTHORISED SPEED, and he’s my pick tomorrow….but I’d definitely not put anyone off having a 20/80 BLOW YOUR WAD @ 33/1.

The market generally calls it right. Six of the last eight favourites have obliged with another of that octet finishing second so, I’m hoping to see support for Gary Moore’s horse and him having the faps tag as the tapes go up.

RON – AUTHORISED SPEED

SEAN – ARCTIC BRESIL

Newcastle 2.33pm

Only three previous running’s of this race and I have absolutely no clue as to what will happen. We had a 6/5 winner last year, a 25/1 winner the year before and the first time they ran this race, a 5/1 shot pulled it off.

The market will guide me here….if I want it to guide me! I imagine there will be money for DESNWORTH, trained by Ben Pauling, because his yard is on fire right now, CARRIGHILLY is interesting because his trainer, Tim Easterby, won the very first running of this race with MOUNTAIN HAWK, the only hurdle race that horse has won in 10.

Crawford sends one over from Ireland that has been beaten 25 lengths, 27 lengths and 23 lengths so they’ve probably given it a wind-op, they don’t have to declare, and it’ll win by 20 lengths.

I wish all those that bet this race the very best of luck!

RON – CARRIGHILLY – 20/80

SEAN – NEVER WRONG FOR LONG - E.W.

Newcastle 3.08pm

Only two previous running’s of this one so stats are no use at all.

An odds on shot won in 2020, an 8/1 shot in 2022….we have an odds on shot here in the shape of Ben Pauling’s HENRY’S FRIEND, who hosed up at Aintree last season….and ran well when finishing second to Paul Nicholl’s HENRI THE SECOND, in a Grade 2 at Sandown. He beat the third placed horse easily enough, and that one had previously gone in by nearly 10 lengths at Bangor.

Nowt to go on so it’s HENRY’S FRIEND for me, if only because of the trainer form!

RON – HENRY’S FRIEND

SEAN – HENRY’S FRIEND

Sandown 3.35pm

I’ll start by saying Gary Moore could have a brilliant afternoon. His IN THE AIR has been punted 16/1 > 13/2 since this market opened.

Age groupings….I want a five of six year old on board, they have taken six of the nine running’s, and four of the last five:

ICEO
DJELO
HARDY DU SEUIL
DR T J ECKLEBURG
IN THE AIR

From a weight carrying perspective, I’d rule out horses carrying more than 11st 2lb as only one of the last nine winners managed it. Three of the last four winners carried 10st 9lb or less.

DJELO
HARDY DU SEUIL
DR T J ECKLEBURG
IN THE AIR

Down to four.

Market position of the winner next and whilst two of the last three winners went in at 14/1 & 25/1 I am looking front six on the tissue as five of the last eight winners were.

All four qualify.

Six favourites have finished first three but only a pair have won so I’m dropping DJELO, who looked great first time, not so great at Haydock when he was beaten at 1/3. It might have been they went racing again to soon, only 10 days after his easy win at Exeter, and he has had a longer break this time. I’d be happy dutching the other three but for Podcast purposes

The ground might be an issue for HARDY DU SEUIL, who is 0-4 on what they currently describe it as so for a 20/80 I’ll say Gary Moore’s IN THE AIR to land the punt. The trainer is running a superb 59% RTF%age figure right now and in a race you could bet five and still not draw, he’ll do.

RON – IN THE AIR

SEAN – HARDY DU SEUIL – E.W.

Sunday

Naas 2.20pm

No secret to success here….just write FAP on your betting slip, then wait at the pay window.

Eight of the last nine winners went off favourite, the odd man out was a 33/1 winner for Willie Mullins, who beat his own odds on shot by just under a length….both were Gigginstown horses….I’m saying nothing.

Mullins saddles the current 11/8 favourite, GRANGECLARE WEST, and this Cheveley Park Stud gelding is already trading very short for both the Ballymore (7/1), and Albert Bartlett (11/2).

I think he’ll make a smashing ‘chaser next year and if you could get a price for the Brown Advisory 2024, I’d take it.

Hopefully he remains unbeaten on Sunday.

RON – GRANGECLARE WEST

SEAN – GRANGECLARE WEST

OMMS

TWIRLING – 5/1 > 13/8 – WON 3/1
DONNA’S DOUBLE – 6/1 > 11/4 – WON
NOT SURE 8/1 > 5/1 – WON 7/1 HENSCHKE - 12/1 > 8/1 – 2ND 8/1 - 70/1 EXACTA

Something for the weekend

RON – E.W. TREBLE – TOP TARGET, LOVE ENVOI, AUTHORISED SPEED

SEAN – DOUBLE - BO ZENITH, GRANGECLARE WEST

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The final Podcast of 2022 and at the end Sean offers you something left field for Boxing Day....I certainly didn't see it coming!

Below you have the text of my side of the races discussed for Boxing Day's top quality Kempton card!

Boxing Day

12.45am Kempton

Only six going to post and the first thing I do is rule out anything aged 10 because Elvis was still around when a 10 year old won, if one ever has?

Only one six year old has won in the last decade and so I am left to work with MIRANDA.

Since the market opened she has been the one for money, 9/2 > 3/1, whilst CHAMP….who I can never get right….is 7/4 > 2/1

PAISLEY PARK has also drifted 9/4 > 3/1

MIRANDA is also the only horse in here with CD form and I do not believe there is a better rider of a hurdler right now that Harry Cobden. I’ve felt that since I first saw him.

Thing is, CHAMP is rated 15lb superior to MIRANDA and only has to give her 7lb.

I’ll probably just watch this race but for the Podcast I’ll say she’ll beat him

RON – MIRANDA

SEAN – GOSHEN

1.20pm Kempton

Only six again here going to post as I type and all the money is for MCFABULOUS, 13/8 > 11/10….that, of course, has happened since Nicholls said he was going to win next years King George with this horse.

MCFABULOUS is currently 2-2 at the track, 4-7 at the trip, and none of the others taking part has winning form at Kempton. Four are here for the first time, including THYME HILL, who cannot jump fences and will be back over hurdles come Cheltenham.

Everything else is on the drift in this market and I’m looking forward to seeing MCFABULOUS stake his claim to next years King George.

RON – MCFABULOUS

SEAN - MCFABULOUS

1.55pm Kempton

Barring accidents, CONSTITUTION HILL wins this pulling a caravan but he’s already 1/6 to win on Boxing Day.

If I were looking for a little sneaky place play I’d go with SCEAU ROYAL but expect Nicky Henderson to be winning his seventh Christmas Hurdle in 11 years.

RON – CONSTITUTION HILL

SEAN – CONSTITUTION HILL

2.30pm Kempton

The market suggests this is between BRAVEMANSGAME and L’HOMME PRESSE. It is 11/2 bar that pair and the other seven are drifting like barges.

The stablemate of BRAVEMANSGAME, HITMAN, is currently third favourite @ 11/2, having been as short as 7/2 but he is already 0-6 on the ground as currently described and has never gone three miles. If he’s genuinely considered third best by the layers then I’m definitely with one of the front two on the tissue.

I’d love the layers though, to tell me how they make L’HOMME PRESSE second favourite, when he’s officially 6lb the better horse of the two and they race off level weights?

I felt more impressed by L’HOMME PRESSE giving nearly two stone to the horse he beat on seasonal debut, than I was BRAVEMANSGAME beating ELDORADO ALLEN getting 3lb off the Tizzard horse.

Common sense tells me 2/1 about the better horse on paper, is the value here.

RON – L’HOMME PRESSE

SEAN - AHOY SENOR

OMMS

3 – CARBON KING – 20/1 > 17/2 – WON 9/4F

2 – REGAL RENNAISANCE – 14/1 > 7/1 – WON 9/1

1 – THE TRIFECTA SOME MEMBERS LANDED ON 14TH DECEMBER, THAT PAID 901/1, USING THE TRIO OF OMMS THAT WERE ALL HIGHLIGHTED AS STRONG IN THAT LINGFIELD 1-55PM RACE!

Something for the weekend

RON – TREBLE – L’HOMME PRESSE, MCFABULOUS, CONSTITUTION HILL

SEAN – AHOY SENOR AND WALK IN THE STORM (Wetherby) – TWO E.W SINGLES AND AN E.W. DOUBLE

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Shishkin, Jonbon and a host of racing stars hit the track this weekend, and we have it all covered, with selections for each race below, plus my side of the conversation in text form, for our hard of hearing members.

11.45am Aintree

Tomorrow we’ll see just the ninth running of this but it has gone to decent horses in the past, EDWADSTONE in 2019 amongst them.

Unusually it was won by a debutante last season, NORTH LODGE, who then won at the Cheltenham January meeting before then running third to THREE STRIPE LIFE in the Mersey Novices’ at Aintree’s National meeting.

That was a 14/1 winner of this last year, and we also had a 40/1 winners back in 2018 but five of the eight previous winners were front two on the tissue and that’s where I will be looking for my Podcast selection.

PLEASANT MAN catches my eye. Pulled up on debut last season he used to be trained by Roger Charlton and beat PIED PIPER on the flat back in September 2020. He then ran NEW MANDATE less than five lengths in the Royal Lodge so if Nicholls has got him tuned up, he’s arriving with quality flat form.

He’s since had a wind op (don’t they all down there!), and Nicholls has only sent a pair for the previous eight of them, winning one, hitting the frame with another.

The front pair on the tissue Sean very kindly sent me are STRONG LEADER and ETALON so my selection will have to be one of that pair and I’m going with ETALON.

Only two of the eight winners arrived having won last time out, and that stat disqualifies STRONG LEADER.

I’d definitely not put anyone off a little e.w. bet PLEASANT MAN because as I’ve said before, I’d always prefer a good flat horse to a good NH horse over hurdles but stats say ETALON.

RON – ETALON

SEAN – STRONG LEADER

12.55pm Aintree

This is a bit like spitting into a wind really. All 3-y-o’s, three having had just one run over hurdles. The first four of the last 10 running’s of this went to the favourite but only one of the last six jolly’s have succeeded….however, the winners of four of the other five were 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite.

Sitting second favourite is an intriguing runner, ISALINE DE CHANDOU, who travels over from France. What his form is worth I couldn’t even begin to tell you but you’d be thinking they didn’t send him here just for a passport stamp. They’ve booked Brian Hughes to ride and I imagine James Reveley will have a had word in his shell-like about this horse, as he has ridden him in all bar one of his seven runs, winning on him in May.

Typical of French NH racing, all his runs to date have been on a bog so maybe they are here for better ground?

The Paul Nicholls runner DIXON COVE was purchased for 190,000E from the Arqana sales in July, made debut at Hereford in early November and bolted up getting not quite £5.5k back

I’d back him to be the seventh winning favourite in the last 11 running’s but no fancy bets because of the French runner.

RON – DIXON COVE

SEAN – DIXON COVE

1.30pm Aintree

Only six runners but this is some race!

I’ve been watching this market since it opened and if those runes speak true, AHOY SENOR is back to his best after a very weird seasonal debut, when he went out like a light!

He opened 5/2 and is now 5/4.

Could you bet money on the real CHANTRY HOUSE turning up? I couldn’t. As likely to pull up as he is to win and having opened 6/1, he saw support, hit 9/2, now 5/1. He’s had a wind-op and is a CD winner, one run here, one win, when he beat SHAN BLUE BY A DISTANCE and has won six of his nine starts over fences.

The Grand National winner, NOBLE YEATS comes over from Ireland and on official ratings is nearly the same horse as AHOY SENOR but this is not his trip….he is 0-4 over it and something will have the legs of him here.

I am not a fan of backing horses with question marks over them and with that applying to the three named above, I’m going to suggest a sporting 20/80 SOUNDS RUSSIAN.

Obviously he has to improve on anything he has done before but in the five races over fences, since he was fourth on debut over then, he has won four and finished second in the other.

He’s officially rated 8lb behind AHOY SENOR and if that horses arrives on blob, he wins….but will he?

RON – SOUNDS RUSSIAN – 20/80

SEAN – SOUNDS RUSSIAN

1.45pm Sandown

Four going to post but Post Racing members will be sick as a parrot if JONBON doesn’t win this. I should add, I will be, too.

It is 12/1 bar two and since the market opened it’s been all JONBON.

Harry Fry’s BOOTHILL is second favourite and comes home second.

JONBON was ultra impressive on debut at Warwick, which is a proper test of a jumper and Nicholls has sensibly taken out MONMIRAL, who was mullahed that day and wouldn’t beat JONBON if he gets around. I do think he would have been second again though so in a clean run race, JONBON wins and shortens again for the Arkle!

RON – JONBON

SEAN - JONBON

2.55pm Sandown

This is now a division lacking a champion!

SHISHKIN….is he over whatever it was?

GREANATEEN….good on a going day but he has finished unplaced in four of his 15 starts over fences.

EDWARDSTONE….King had him entered for a handicap recently! He looked like a horse that had definitely had enough for the season at Aintree, when slamdunked by GENTLEMAN DE MEE, who made seasonal debut recently and was well beaten when he got rid of his jockey, that race going to a horse rated nearly 20lb his inferior. He has also never won this side of February and it could be he only wins good races when other good horses are going over the top.

Stats say the favourite wins this in a normal year and if they have got SHISHKIN back, he’s the winner. Rated 6lb superior to GREANATEEN and the market likes him….11/8 > 11/10, with GREANATEEN 5/4 > 15/8 and drifting.

RON – SHISHKIN

SEAN - SHISHKIN

3.30pm Sandown

Ideally I’d want 10 or more previous running’s to get a proper handle on it but I’ll crack on.

Profiling it, we kick off with age groupings.

Seven and eight year olds have taken five of the nine previous running’s of this race and carrying less than 11st has been an advantage as five of those eight winners again, fit that bill, as would three of the last four.

Only two horses fit the bill:

ÉCLAIR DE GUYE
IN REM

Priced 6/1 & 12/1 respectively, I’d happily dutch for a profit but for a 20/80 I’ll put up IN REM.

The winners of three of the last four winners arrived having raced this season and ÉCLAIR DE GUYE is making seasonal debut.

IN REM is having just his third run over fences tomorrow and they now put him up in trip, wearing cheekpieces first time, and sits in the front six on the tissue, as have seven of the last eight winners, three of them actually sixth….a good sign, if he’s still 6th best at the off!

I’m dutching, but for Podcast purposes, IN REM for me.

I’d be really pleased to Harry’s REVELS HILL win but those stats for favourites are really off putting.

RON – IN REM – 20/80

SEAN – REVELS HILL

6.50pm Wolverhampton

When I saw this in the list I went peeeoooo….a juvenile race, on all weather, with just five previous running’s to work with.

What did I do to deserve this>

I’m using tongs, and holding it at arms length as I tell you, not a winning favourite yet, and only one has placed. However, all five winners have been front four on the tissue and if LOOKING FOR LYNDA is front four tomorrow night, that’s my 20/80.

I’m putting that horse up purely and simply because Karl Burke has only send one for it previously, and won it last year.

A no bet for me though I’m afraid and I’ll be in the kitchen when this goes off.

RON – LOOKING FOR LYNDA

SEAN – SHAQUILLE E.W

OMMS

HUBERTS DREAM – 16/1 > 4/1 – WON 2/1F
THE WIZARD OF EYE – 40/1 > 16/1 – WON 20/1
LISLORAN – 40/1 > 15/2 - WON 10/3

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – DIXON COVE, JONBON, SHISHKIN – TREBLE

SEAN – WALKING ON AIR (Aintree 3-15)

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This week we discuss the Ascot farce last weekend, whether racing should be called off if they do not attract enough runners, and the new whip rules about to come into force.

Below you have my side of the conversation regarding the weekends races with Sean's selections attached.

Friday

1.55pm Newbury

STAGE STAR is the standout here. He looked very decent when beating WEST CORK by 13 lengths on seasonal debut and that one has since got within 16 lengths of JONBON at Warwick.

Obviously JONBON won as he liked, and that distance could have been trebled but STAGE STAR did nothing wrong on chasing debut and he’ll be odds on tomorrow to make 2-2 following a wind-op.

He’s also the only previous winner in here around Newbury, where he is 2-2 and he’s also 4-5 at the trip.

His race to lose.

RON – STAGE STAR

SEAN - WONDERWALL

3.05pm Newbury

If ever I have seen a race full of “could have beens”, this is it. Every horse in here was touted as being very good as one time or another but they very rarely deliver.

BEER GOGGLES won this @ 40/1 five years ago but eight of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue and right now they are:

CHAMP
PROSCHEMA
PAISLEY PARK

The first and third named are now both 10 years olds….good ones but, 10 year olds and only one of that age has taken this race before….our very own UNOWHATIMEANHARRY in 2018.

The winning most age group is 7-y-o’s….and PROSCHEMA is a seven year old.

Everything points to the Skelton runners, who arrives having dotted up from THOMAS DARBY, who takes him on again here, at Wetherby.

I have to work with PROSCHEMA, who has only ever followed up a win, with another win, once….but that’s the type of horses we are working with here….I’d not even rule out TEA CLIPPER, who goes back over hurdles for the first time since 2021 when he won four and placed in three of his eight runs over them.

RON – PROSCHEMA

SEAN - CHAMP

Saturday

12.45pm Newbury

Just four runners currently declared and if they have the same issues as Ascot last weekend, we could see another walkover! AHOY SENOR took this last year and he was representing by far the strongest age group historically, when it comes to finding the winner of this….six year olds have won five of the last 10 and three of the last four and the only runner of that age in here is GELINO BELLO, one of two he has in the race and ridden by the stable jockey. Nicholls has won two of the last three running’s of this and I’ll trust him to get the job done again.

RON – GELINO BELLO

SEAN – THYME HILL

1.00pm Newcastle

Only four runners again….and three of the last four winners went in 50/1, 40/1, & 10/1….traditionally you want to be front three on the tissue, and you definitely want to be arriving a five year old because eight of the last 10 winners were….in fact, the last seven were and as we have just one of that age group in here…and purely for Podcast purposes, I’ll put up Nigel’s IMPERIAL B G

He is the only runner yet to achieve an official mark but he was fancied first time up, going off favourite at Wetherby.

MOFASA arrives unbeaten in two this season and of the three with a rating he is simply miles clear.

I’d not be betting here but just because I’ve looked at it, and stats don’t lie, IMPERIAL B G for me.

RON – IMPERIAL B G

SEAN - MOFASA

2.03pm Bangor

Interesting little race, this.

Only eight previous running’s of it but six have gone to the front two on the tissue so that’s where I’m looking for my winner.

Just one of the nine runners has an official rating and that’s just 87 so I doubt MAISIEBELLA wins anything because if some of those very lightly raced ones are not better than 87, I’ll eat my Panama.

The market has three very tight at the top, GRAIN D’OUDAIRIES 9/4, DUKE OF MORAVIA 11/4 and GWENNIE MAY BOY 11/4 so between now and off time, anything could happen.

As it stands I have to pick between the first two named and I’m going to suggest DUKE OF MORAVIA, who ran on really well behind a Longsden hotpot a couple of weeks ago and he was looked after by Harry Cobden that day.

My reason for selecting this one is because I cannot find a previous winner that was making seasonal debut, nor winning off the back of just one racecourse appearance, which scuppers the current favourite.

Obviously we have to see what the market does between now and Saturday afternoon but for now, DUKE OF MORAVIA, than you very much!

RON – DUKE OF MOARAVIA

SEAN – GRAIN D’OUDAIRIES

2.10pm Newcastle

A joke of a race. Henderson has put CONSTITUTION HILL in here having missed last weekend and he’s going to be long odds on to beat his stable companion EPATANTE, who would have been long odds on to beat the others had next years Champion Hurdle winner not been here.

RON – CONSITUTION HILL

SEAN – CONSITUTION HILL

2.30pm Newbury (handicap)

The Gerry Fielden….I’m a traditionalist and always remember what these races were always called before the bookmakers started taking over the sponsorship….just like the Hennessey will always be the Hennessey.

Anyway, only eight going to post, which is a shame as profiling goes out of the window with such small fields I’m afraid. I was going to start by saying you need to be aged four, five or six….but all eight qualify.

Weight ranges are all over the place, too so my plan here is to suggest we go first four in the betting, but also considering dropping the favourite because they have only won three in the last decade, six going to the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites. The last two winners were priced 10/1 & 8/1

Nicky Henderson has absolutely farmed this in the last 10 years, winning four and placing with four, from just 12 runners.

He has FIRST STREET and THEATRE GLORY in here right now, both making seasonal debut, as were his last two winners of this, EPATANTE and FLORESSA.

Currently 4/1 & 9/2 respectively, I’d happily dutch based on what I’ve said but since the market opened THEATRE GLORY’s price has fluctuated….opened 10/3 favourite, hit 5/1, now 9/2….FIRST STREET, 7/2 > 4/1….but the jockey bookings suggest FIRST STREET is strongest as James Bowen, who Henderson uses a heck of a lot these days, rides whilst the 7lb claimed Nathan Brennan rides THEATRE GLORY.

A 20/80 FIRST STREET is my preferred, if I have to select one, which I do!

RON – FIRST STREET – 20/80

SEAN – THEATRE GLORY

OMMS

WHISPERING ROYAL – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 11/2
LECALE’S APPROACH – 33/1 > 14/1 – WON 12/1
MOROVAL – 150/1 > 50/1 – WON 100/1

Something for the weekend

RON – PROSCHEMA

SEAN – WALKING ON AIR (Newbury 1-55, Saturday)

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Are the prices being asked by hotels in Cheltenham for the week of the Festival realistic? Why are punters never asked for an opinion on how racing could be better and should racecourses ask for reduced entry fees when they have few runners?

Please find below Ron's side of the conversation and selections of both

The great shame tomorrow is that five of the seven races we discuss now sees just 24 horses racing across five of them, that provide a quarter of a million pounds in prize money.

Haydock 12.10pm

Well, the trip is fine for all six going to post but the ground? Living not a million miles from the track I have to think it’s borderline heavy there now given the rain we have had in this area but, who knows?

Only SIZING POTSIE has even raced on the going as is still officially advised good to soft (IT CANNOT BE GOOD TO SOFT, TRUST ME!), and all I am going to do here is say that with the favourite having won six of the last 10 running’s, and three of the last four, I’ll suggest the Nicholls runner, TAHMURAS.

He has run eight in this in the last decade, won with one, placed with two so that horse is my Podcast selection….however, I advise checking the OMMS tomorrow morning because we’ll have an accurate going description and the money will tell us what to expect.

RON – TAHMURAS

SEAN - SIZING POTSIE

Huntingdon 12.48pm

I only have six previous running’s of this to work with, those six have been won by a 4-y-o, a five year old, a six year old and two seven year olds. I feel like I’m trying to knit yogurt.

Three arrive all rated 125 and all carrying 11st 2lb so tight best describes it!

What to do….well, based on those six previous running’s I want a horse that has run this season, but not won and the one that fits is PANIC ATTACK.

I’d not have a bet here to save my life but for Podcast purposes, he gets the gig.

RON – PANIC ATTACK

SEAN - WYNN HOUSE

Haydock 1.50pm

Down to just four runners and if HITMAN doesn’t win head in chest I’ll be stunned and I imagine Nicholls will be too. He’s officially 10lb and more the best horse in the race, and six year olds have dominated this in the last decade, taking four of them.

The problem is, he does appear have this passion for having a horse finish in front of him. He has always been touted as a potential superstar but three wins and eight placed efforts from 13 starts tells a tale.

Would you take 4/7 about a dodgepot like him?

Should win but I’m just watching.

RON – HITMAN

SEAN - HITMAN

Ascot 2.05pm

If I told you that Venetia Williams has not trained a winner since April, would you feel inclined to take 4/7 L’HOMME PRESSE here?

I wouldn’t.

Will HITMAN run here, or at Haydock? If he doesn’t run here then the favourite only really has SAINT CALVADOS to beat. Officially, he’s only 3lb the better of the two and gets 3lb so is nearly half a stone best in here and whereas SAINT CALVADOS is 0-2 on the ground as currently described, L’HOMME PRESSE is 3-4 and unbeaten at the trip, whilst ST CALVADOS is 0-3….but that stable form stinks and I could not bet here using stolen money.

RON – L’HOMME PRESSE

SEAN - L'HOMME PRESSE

Haydock 2.25pm (handicap)

Two of the last three winners of this went in @ 16/1 but we’ll mini-profile it and see what happens.

Age groupings first and, in the last 10 years seven winners have been aged five of six….but the last two winners have been aged seven and eight….got to run with younger horses though.

Seven of the last 10 winners carried less than 11st 7lb but more than 10st 6lb and, whilst we have had winners going in at daft prices only one has been outside the front seven on the tissue….and we have not had a winning favourite in those 10 years either.

So, I want a horses aged five or six, carrying less than 11st 7lb, more than 10st 6lb and trading front seven on the tissue….but not the favourite.

GOOD RISK AT ALL
COMPLETE UNKNOWN
GET A TONIC
WAKOOL
BOTOX HAS

Only one horse, in the last five years, has won this making seasonal debut so any of the above that have not raced recently get binned.

GOOD RISK AT ALL
WAKOOL
BOTOX HAS

Down to three.

Currently priced 6/1, 10/1 & 14/1 that’s a decent enough dutch to be making but looking for one to go 20/80 I’d suggest GOOD RISK AT ALL.

I did point out how many big priced winners we have seen in recent times but it’s also hot to be said that six of the last 10 winners were a single figure price and GOOD RISK AT ALL fits. If it is slower than advertised, then that will suit as he won easily on heavy last time out.

RON – GOOD RISK AT ALL

SEAN - WHOLESTONE E.W.

Ascot 2.40pm

After JONBON doing what he did the other day and Henderson saying CONSITUTION HILL did a frightening piece of work this week, you look at the four taking him on and simply asking, “what comes second”.

I feel sorry for GOSHEN being told he has to give this favourite 3lb, when he is already 13lb behind him on official ratings!

RON – CONSITUTION HILL

SEAN – CONSITUTION HILL

Haydock 3.00pm

A PLUS TARD must win this whatever the ground. He is 16lb and more the best horse in this race, won it easily last season. Henry De Bromhead was interviewed on TV yesterday and said the horse is in great form.

I’m not one for betting horses at 4/7 and if it did ride heavy that might be a slight concern but he should have far too much for these.

RON – A PLUS TARD

SEAN - A PLUS TARD

OMMS

CATLIN – 14/1 > 8/1 – WON 13/2
BRAGANZA BOY – 25/1 > 7/1 > 11/2 – WON 9/4F
ENDLESS ESCAPE – 40/1 > 18/1 – WON 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – GOOD RISK AT ALL – 20/80

SEAN - NOWT

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Do we have another TANGO BOY lined up? Last time out we nailed TANGO BOY and our target this week is The Paddy Power Gold Cup....speaking of which, how crazy is it that Paddy Power has paid out on a winner, that has not raced yet?

Just two of the subjects discussed this week, with plenty of winners for Saturday tagged on!

The text of my side of the races discussed for our hard of hearing listeners.

Naas 12.55pm

Five runners, one priced 300/1 so, in essence, a four runner race.

We have another priced 12/1 and as we’ve had no winner of this return bigger than 11/2 in the last 10 years….effectively one of three wins it.

Gordon Elliott has trained the last three winners and also four of the last six, so he obviously targets it and his FIL DOR is my pick to beat BRAZIL….the market says one of them wins it and I also like the fact this one is currently second favourite behind BRAZIL, because the last favourite to win this was in 2016….and before that 2013.

RON – FILS DOR

SEAN – FILS DOR

Cheltenham 12.35pm

A Triumph Hurdle trial but the winner in March is not in this field. I mentioned the name of the Triumph winner in another Podcast not so long ago.

Easy enough to solve….usually. You need to be trading front two on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners were. You also need to be arriving as the winner of your last race….the last seven had done that, too.

The current favourite is the Nicholls trained BLUEKING D’OUROUX who has raced three times over hurdles in France, winning one.

Two things put me off him. First, he arrives not having won last time out and second, he is favourite. Now, I know I said you need to be front two on the tissue but, we have had three second favourites winning this in the last three running’s, the favourite out of the frame, or pulling up.

That makes SCRIPTWRITER the one I want to be with tomorrow.

If this was a flat race, he’d be odds on based on his six-length 5th of 10 to COREOBUS in a Group 3 at Newmarket in October 2021 and we get very few horses rated 102 coming off the flat to go hurdling these days.

He dotted up on debut at Sedgefield and the £62k they paid Coolmore to get this one could be money well spent.

RON – SCRIPTWRITER

SEAN – BLUEKING D’OUROUX

Naas 2-05pm

Another small field affair, just five going to post, with GENTLEMAN DE MEE trading 4/11. The last odds on shot to win this was also trained by the bloke responsible for this favourite, Willie Mullins. I don’t see him as a Champion Chaser….much better suited to places like Aintree, where he battered the 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE in April.

I cannot see him getting beaten here.

RON - GENTLEMAN DE MEE

SEAN – GENTLEMAN DE MEE

Cheltenham 1.45pm

The Arkle Trial but if Paddy Power are right doing what they have done, no matter how good these are, they are playing for second place come March.

None of the last 10 winners have been outside the front four on the tissue, and when it comes to age, four and five year olds have won nine of the last 10 so take out anything younger, or older.

That gives me MONMIRAL or BANBRIDGE to choose from.

Of the last five running’s of this, only one won it when making seasonal debut and that then points me towards BANBRIDGE, as MONMIRAL is making seasonal debut.

BANBRIDGE also has a course win to his name and previous Cheltenham form is always a positive.

He hosed in by just under nine lengths at Gowran at the beginning of October and I’ll throw a cheeky fiver at him.

RON – BANBRIDGE

SEAN – PENTLAND HILLS

Cheltenham 2.20pm

A handicap so I’ll mini profile it.

Age groupings first. Only two of the last 10 winners were younger than seven, none were older than nine so….horses aged 7-9 first:

MISTER FISHER
SIMPLY THE BETTS
HAPPYGOLUCKY
STOLEN SILVER
FRENCH DYNAMITE
MIDNIGHT RIVER
UMBRIGADO
STORM CONTROL
DEYRANN DE CARJAC

The last seven winners were in those age groups so it’s solid as stats go.

Weight ranges next and whilst they look a little all over the place I’m happy to say 10st 11lb – 11st 8lb as you would have found seven of the last 10 winners using those.

Market position….no winning favourite in the last decade but, seven of the last 10 winners were front six so, let’s leave the current favourite out, FRENCH DYNAMITE, and take those carrying the correct weight, and the right age and see what we have left.

STOLEN SILVER
MIDNIGHT RIVER

Priced 7/1 and 12/1 respectively at the moment my thinking is to dutch them but my eyes are drawn again to the letter C next to the name of STOLEN SILVER so he’s my 20/80 selection.

If he tops my figures tomorrow, as TANGO BOY did the last time we did this, I’ll be in like Flynn!

RON – STOLEN SILVER – 20/80

SEAN – MIDNIGHT RIVER – E.W.

Wetherby 2.28pm

Only five going to post but the biggest priced of them is 9/2, with the favourite trading 11/4 so, as tight as the proverbial drum….should be a good race to watch!

We have only had four previous running’s of this race, the first two won by the favourite, the last pair going to the second favourites.

All four races to date have been won by five year olds and so I’m going to put up the shortest priced of the two qualifiers….THRONE HALL….a 94 rated horse of the flat and my philosophy used to be, a good flat horse, will always beat a good NH horse over hurdles. Ultra consistent on the flat, winning and placing in 11 of his 17 races on turf under that code, he has taken well to jumping and I hope he has to much speed for these.

RON – THRONE HALL

SEAN – THRONE HALL

Lingfield 2.35pm

Where the heck do I start….the last five winners were won by horse aged 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, we’ve had two winning favourites in the last two years (the same horse), and before that, a 20/1 shot popped up.

Market position is the best place to be looking. Seven of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue and they are SUMMERGHAND, LOGO HUNTER and JUDICIAL, who won this in 2019.

I’m liking the stats produced by runners David O’Meara sends for this….six runners in the last decade, won with one, placed with two and so I’ll put up SUMMERGHAND….an eight year old so, if he wins tomorrow and we do this race again next year, I’ll be able to say the last six winners have been aged 4, 5, 6, 7, 8….what a bogus way to pick a selection!

RON – SUMMERGHAND

SEAN - SUMMERGHAND

Lingfield 3.10pm

Twelve going to post and won last year by bargain basement horse PYLEDRIVER.

Interesting that Aiden O’Brien sends BOLSHOI BALLET over to make his seasonal debut having been missing for 335 days!

The market stats tell me that you need to be front two on the tissue as eight of the last 10 winners were so it’s one of MISSED THE CUT, or the Irish raider BOLSHOI BALLET for me.

We have had five winning favourites in that time and no winner at all bigger than 10/1….and that was the only winner bigger than 6/1.

Purely for Podcast purposes, I’m selecting BOLSHOI BALLET. He is a four year old and they have won the last three running’s of this race and had 12 of the 25 that represented that age group winning or placing….he’s a 20/80 for obvious reasons but he’s a Group 1 horse in a Listed race so, if they have him anywhere near the form he can produce he’ll skittle these.

RON – BOLSHOI BALLET – 20/80

SEAN – BOLSHOI BALLET

OMMS

The best of this weeks OMMS were....:

GUNNERY OFFICER – 33/1 > 14/1 – WON 4/1
NAVARRA PACE – 33/1 > 14/1 – WON 13/2
HOWZAK – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – SCRIPTWRITER / THRONE HALL – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN – HIDDEN VALUE LAKE (Naas 12-20) / PENTLAND HILLS

View Details

Guinness in a paper cup @ £7.50, why shouldn't the bookmakers put more into racing given the profits they make and all the big race winners this weekend!

Saturday

Ayr 1.23pm

Skull and crossbones alert!!!

Irish trained NONBINDING, the current 8/11 favourite, with Sean Bowen heading up to ride five for Gordon Elliott and you can imagine a treble, minimum being secured.

The second favourite, GLORY BRIDGE, runs in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings and he looked good in a Bumper 228 days ago, but you imagine he’s a 10 mile chaser in the making.

The favourite though is no superstar and if anyone takes the odds on they need their bumps feeling.

One of the two mentioned wins this race and unless the market suggests GLORY BRIDGE has a bit of speed about him, I’ll put up the favourite as a Podcast selection only but not a penny will be parted with here!

RON – NONBINDING

SEAN – GLORY BRIDGE

Galway 2.53pm

No text for this race but we both selected GUILY BILLY

Wetherby 3.00pm

Only one winning favourite in the last 10 years so SPORTING JOHN, who drifted from his opening show of 6/4 > 15/8….now 7/4 again, is not my pick here based on that stat.

The 2nd, 3rd and fourth favourites have won nine between them, and last years winner, INDEFATIGABLE, is sitting second favourite. He’s a nine year old now though and only one of that age has pulled this off in the last 10 years.

The two outsiders arrive running first time since a wind-op, and with it seemingly required to be arriving here making seasonal debut, four of the last five winners were, I rule out PROSCHEMA.

Seven of the last 10 winners were 5/1 or shorter and with the lot chucked into a blender I have to row in with last years winner, INDEFATIGABLE.

He was given a pipe opener at Pontefract recently, as he was last year, and it looks a plan to me.

RON – INDEFATIGABLE

SEAN – SPORTING JOHN

Wetherby 3.35pm

One of AHOY SENOR or BRAVEMANSGAME wins this and there is very little between them on the tissue, 11/2 bar the pair.

BRAVEMANSGAME is just favourite and in the last 10 years that has been a millstone around the neck….no winning favourite of this since CUE CARD in 2015.

If they flip flop in the betting, I’m with the second favourite and so, right this second, my selection is AHOY SENOR. He beat BRAVEMANSGAME a distance at Aintree in April and whilst that was obviously not the favourites form, I’ll take the second favourite to beat him again.

RON – AHOY SENOR

SEAN - BRAVEMANSGAME

Ascot 3.50pm

A double figure field! All bar one are making seasonal debut and we are still a week away from the core season starting. However, the bigger yards are now starting to blow hot and the last three of these have been won by Nicholls and Henderson, with five winning favourites in the last 10 years, and nine of those 10 winners sited front three on the tissue.

Henderson isn’t represented here but Nicholls relies on HOLETOWN HERO, who we’ve only seen in Bumpers so far but will most likely go off the favourite because of the yard he comes from.

Nicholls has run four in this, in the last decade, won with a pair, placed with another so he’s not just using it for “sighters”….he’s out to win it.

After his final run last season they gave it the wind-op that even the staff probably get at that yard.

It’s impossible to gauge any of them ACCURATELY and all you can do here is trust to the market. I have no prices for a race like this yet but if, as is probable, HOLETOWN HERO is front three on the tissue, he’s my pick.

A no bet race but purely for Podcast purposes. It will be interesting to read the OMMS in my Update Newsletter tomorrow morning.

RON – HOLETOWN HERO – 20/80

SEAN – LEAVE OF ABSENCE

Newmarket 3.58pm

We have 10 juveniles here and sitting at the head of the tissue is a Godolphin runner, DREAM OF LOVE, trained by Appleby. Surprise, surprise!

One run, one win. Again, surprise, surprise.

The favourites tag has been a bit of a ball and chain in recent years, not one winning in the last four years, after four had obliged in the previous six.

You do not want to be coming here exposed. Four of the last five winners had no more than three runs, one was winning on debut and the other three came here having won last time out.

Front three on the tissue, arriving having won last time out, but no more than three runs on the board….that’s my criteria here. If that holds true, the winner is one of DREAM OF LOVE or CONVERSATIONALIST.

I am going to be a coward and run with the favourite, as she is a previous course winner (the only one in the field), and with the right connections.

Dermot Weld sends over the second favourite but she has already been beaten in three of her four starts and fails on all my criteria.

RON – DREAM OF LOVE

SEAN – KEEP IN TOUCH

Newmarket 4.33pm

The winner of the last five running’s of this have been favourite (3), or second favourite.

Three year olds have a brilliant record given they are generally underrepresented. We have seen just 16 of that age group running in this race in the last 10 years and they won four, and placed in four.

Guess what, we have a Godolphin owned, Appleby trained favourite in OTTOMAN FLEET! He also trains the third favourite, too, ROYAL FLEET….looks like he’s definitely got his fleet under the table here!

Of the pair it has to be OTTOMAN FLEET for me. He arrives having placed second last time out, whilst his stable companion ran third. The last five winners of this arrived having either won, or placed second so, with the second favourite a veritable crusty at the age of six, and having finished only eighth last time out, it has to be OTTOMAN FLEET….a question though….why Doyle riding the third favourite, with Ryan Moore up on the jolly?

RON – OTTOMAN FLEET

SEAN - NOBEL

Wetherby 4.45pm

I’ll have this Rated and in Newsletters tomorrow but let’s mini-profile it:

Nothing older than nine, nothing younger than six. Not carrying less than 11st 4lb, but carrying 12st or more looks a positive….only three have tried in the last 10 years, one won, two placed….but I’ll have a cut off point of 11st 8lb because you’ve nailed five of the last eight winners doing that.

Market position….has to be front four, as eight of the last 10 winners were.

So, in short, a horse no younger than six, no older than nine, not carrying more than 11st 8lb and no less than 11st 4lb and fancied.

Two qualifiers:

TANGO BOY
AKI BOMAYE

The second named is racing first time following a wind-op and arrives a novice having only seen fences three times and raced under rules just five times in his life.

Without a doubt he’ll have a bright red question mark against his name in the Newsletter, which indicates a horse that is impossible to rate accurately, but the fact he’s here for a race like this might suggest his wind-op has worked.

He won his only PTP, is a chaser all over, but if I put him up, I’m guessing.

I also do not like the fact only one seven year old, from the 25 that have tried, have won this in the last 10 years and so I’m going 20/80 TANGO BOY.

He’s nine, also arrives a novice….very lightly raced for a horse of his age, just three starts over fences and his trainer won this race in 2018.

The Ratings will make for an interesting read though.

RON – TANGO BOY – 20/80

SEAN – ASHFIELD PADDY – E.W.

OMMS

ORBITAL CHIME – 9/2 > 9/4 – WON 15/8F
PEKING ROSE – 8/1 > 11/4 – WON 5/2F
LEGEND OF XANADU – 33/1 > 20/1 – WON 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – INDEFATIGABLE

SEAN – GUILY BILLY & SPORTING JOHN

View Details

The flat season is drawing to a close but this weekend we have Cheltenham back and a few races discussed there in this weeks Podcast.

We also look at the bargain buy that is HEWICK, look back at Champions Day, and discuss matters racing!

For those hard of hearing please find my side of the conversation below, with our selections for plenty of races on Saturday.

Best of luck!

Newbury 1.50pm

The Boys In Blue are simply mopping up the end of season juvenile events, as evidenced yesterday at Newmarket. Don’t know about you, but I’m finding it boring? I mean, I’m no fan of flat racing once September ends anyway but this is all a bit bland.

They will saddle the favourite here but that’s a bad thing. No winning favourite in the last 10 years. However, we have had seven second and third favourites winning so looking at the current tissue for this race, I have to run with either CARAGIO or LORD OF BISCAY.

The first named is trained by Roger Teal who won this with KENZAI WARRIOR in 2019, his only previous runner in this race.

Varian trains LORD OF BISCAY and he has saddled four for this race, in the last decade….only placed with one of them.

No shock to see STRIKING STAR absolutely hose up but stats suggest a 20/80 CARAGIO so if I was betting (which I’m not!), that would be my play.

RON – CARAGIO – 20/80

SEAN – KNIGHT – E.W.

Newbury 2.25pm

I think I spotted the winner of this before I started working on it. Let’s see if I’m right via stats/trends!

You need to be trading first of second on the tissue as six of the last nine winners were….ticks that box.

Age makes not a lot of difference and the last four winners were 4, 7, 5, and 3….so with not a lot else to work with I’m looking at trainer form in this race.

Haggas has sent four for it….won with two (last year and 2018), and he saddles the clear favourite, HAMISH, on Saturday.

That was the horse that gave me a wink and a thumbs up when I opened this race up….HAMISH, even if even money is tight.

RON – HAMISH

SEAN - HAMISH

Cheltenham 2.40pm

Good to firm ground right now and this will decimate these fields. Only five turn up here right now and with the winner never out of the front three in the market, we have only two binned.

None of the five has winning form on good to firm….none has ever raced on it, so I’ll stick with my tried and tested “Cheltenham Form matters” mantra and put up the front two to produce the winner:

PIED PIPER
KNIGHT SALUTE

PIED PIPER is currently favourite and we’ve not had a winning favourite since 2013 so I’m simply going to chuck KNIGHT SALUTE in as a Podcast pick.

His trainer, Milton Harris, was interviewed recently and he said this horse had improved tons, schooled brilliantly, and he couldn’t wait for Saturday.

KNIGHT SALUTE for me.

RON – KNIGHT SALUTE

SEAN – BELLA SCINTILLA

Cheltenham 3.15pm (throwing in a handicap)

The good to firm already has this down to seven, and it could yet be six as Gary Moore has not declared a pilot for his.

I’ll have figures done on Saturday morning but looking at it now, from a Scribblings point of view, and having only seven previous running’s to work with, I’d suggest you want an 8-y-o, making seasonal debut because three of the last five winners were.

That means a bit of a surprise result if that comes off again because the pair that fit the bill are THE WIDDOW MAKER, having first run in the name of Joe Tizzard, and POSEIDON, having his first run for Gordon Elliott, and who has not won a race since October 2021.

That win at Cork was his only win over fences in 10 attempts…THE WIDDOW MAKER has had three runs over fences, won one, placed in two.

Currently around the 8/1 mark, I’ll put it up as a 20/80 and hope for a run for my money….not that I’m betting, but you know what I mean!

- because EDITUER DU GITE looks set to run, Ron changed his selection!!!

RON – EDITEUR DU GITE

SEAN – CLEAR THE RUNWAY

Newbury 3.30pm

More darned juveniles. Strangely, none of the trainers represented in this on Saturday, has saddled the winner previously.

Five of the last six winners were front two on the tissue at the off and so I’d be looking to dutch whatever they are (I have nothing to work with right now)….in fact, you could just right FAP on your betting slip and sit tight. The favourites have won three of the last five, and the last two of these and for Podcast purposes, I’ll simply say FAP, straight win.

RON - SMALL OASIS

SEAN – SMALL OASIS

Doncaster 3.35pm

I do not see any danger to the favourite here…based on trends. Form might be a different matter.

AUGUSTE RODIN is already clear favourite for next years Derby and is only 5/4 to win this on Saturday.

His trainer, Aiden O’Brien has taken three of the last five running’s of this race and Irish trained horses have won four of the last five.

We’ve had rain up north and this fella scooted in last time out on soft but the runner up has been beaten easily since in a Group 3.

The second favourite was beaten in a Group 3 last time and it’s 12/1 bar this pair.

I just shrugged, told myself to go with stats and will say AUGUSTE RODIN wins.

RON – AUGUSTE RODIN

SEAN – AUGUSTE RODIN

Cheltenham 4.25pm

This had 16 going to post on Wednesday when I first looked….now just five head to post. Two have yet to have jockeys booked and it might be a three runner farce yet!

Our hero GALVIN won this in 2020 before he went on to pay for my new garden furniture in March the next year.

GALVIN’s trainer has two in here ASH TREE MEADOW and CHEMICAL ENERGY, the second named a winner just over a month ago. Elliott says he’s a horse best caught fresh so that might be him done for the season already. He says of ASH TREE MEADOW that this will be his last race until the spring, that he has taken really well to fences and that there is a “big one” in him.

He is also declared to run tomorrow in the 2-10, so we could yet end up with a match here!

If he runs ASH TREE HOUSE in this race, he’s my pick, if he doesn’t and only two turn up, I’ll just watch.

RON – ASH TREE HOUSE

SEAN – MAHLER MISSION

OMMS

KEMPTON 19/10/22

5-00 - BEAULD AS BRASS - 9/2 > 7/2 > 9/4 - VERY STRONG - WON 13/8

7-00 - COPPICE - 11/4 > 6/4 > 6/5 - VERY STRONG - WON 10/11

7-30 - MOUNT ATHOS - 3/1 > 9/4 > 15/8 - STRONG - WON 2/1

Something for the weekend

RON – TREBLE – HAMISH, AUGUSTE RODIN, SMALL OASIS

SEAN – KNIGHT E.W.

View Details

Newmarket 1.50pm

All juveniles so all fall in the right age/weight ranges and so, as is always the case, I’m looking at the markets and trainer stats to get my winner….they found us a 20/1 winner last time so, fingers crossed.

Nine of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue, although the last winning favourite was KEW GARDENS back in 2017.

I can see only two winners in the last decade, that went off bigger than 7/2 and neither of them returned an SP bigger than 15/2 and only a pair of horse qualify based on the markets:

FLYING HONOURS
DEAR MY FRIEND

Both arrive for this as beaten favourites last time out and interestingly, the two times FLYING HONOURS has been beaten in his four starts, have been at Newmarket. He got done @ 2/7 last time and I could not take the 6/5 based on those facts.

DEAR MY FRIEND is around 13/2 right now and I’m thinking that if I had £10 to waste here, I’d rather have it to place on the second favourite, rather than on the nose of this favourite. I reckon the place play might even pay more than the win return if FLYING HONOURS breaks his Newmarket curse.

Officially he’s 6lb better than the Johnston runner but if he’s a stone worse a horse at Headquarters, then who knows?

I’ll go place only DEAR MY FRIEND

RON – DEAR MY FRIEND – PLACE ONLY

SEAN -

Curragh 2.00pm

Seven Irish juveniles so little to go on. The front pair on the tissue I’m looking at have raced once, won once. Looking at my stats I see that five of the last eight favourites have won this, and that Aiden O’Brien has won six of those eight.

He saddles the favourite, BE HAPPY, and with nothing else to go on, no Paddy Twomey runner (he has won the last two renewals), to worry about, I’ll post up BE HAPPY as my selection but a dollop of guesswork as to how good the horse is.

RON – BE HAPPY

SEAN -

York 2.05pm

I’ve tears tripping me up now, as we trawl through yet another juvenile minefield.

First thing I’m doing is ruling out the fillies. They can win it but stats say colt/gelding wins it….seven of the last 10 renewals.

Seven of the last 10 winners were also front three on the tissue and they are colts tomorrow:

ALPHA CAPTURE
BOLT ACTION
ROUSING ENCORE

At this point I should warn you that three winners that were not front three won this in 2017 – 25/1, 2019 – 10/1 and 2020 – 25/1 so typically end of season scary flat racing.

Southern based trainers have started to take a grip of this race, the last two heading back down the M1 and the front two on the tissue I have both hail from Newmarket.

My selection has to be BOLT ACTION. Trained by Roger Varian, who won this with the only other horse he has ever sent for it, MUSHIR, in 2013….that’s a long time between drinks but he’s very methodical is Roger and I’ll plump for his.

RON – BOLT ACTION

SEAN -

Newmarket 2.25pm

Another juvenile race and I’ll just rinse and repeat exactly what I said about the earlier race here regarding age and weight ranges.

Again you want to be sited front three on the tissue, eight of the last 10 winners were and right now they are:

SILVER KNOTT
EPICTETUS
HOLLOWAY BOY

The middle named arrives having had just one run so it’s impossible to get a handle on him. Not many take this having had just the one racecourse experience though, just one in the last five years, so I’d be with the other two.

The winner, based on how I work, is glaringly obvious….SILVER KNOTT. His trainer, Charlie Appleby, has won this three times in the last five years, and his bosses have won four of the last five so if stats and trends mean diddly, that horse wins this race.

RON - SILVER KNOTT

SEAN -

Curragh 2.35pm

The current favourite here is a five year old and stats say no! Eight of the last 10 winners were aged three or four, with three year olds winning the last two and four of the last six….I’m going with the 3-y-o’s.

Six of the last nine winners were priced 3/1 or shorter, including the last three winners so, a three year old, trading front three on the tissue and I’ve two qualifiers:

PIRATE JENNY
PRETTIEST

The second named is trained by Aiden O’Brien, who has not saddled the winner of this in the last decade. PIRATE JENNY is trained by Ger Lyons, who has trained the winner of two of the last four winners, including last years winning favourite, POWER UNDER ME.

Stats say that’s the most likely winner so, PIRATE JENNY for me, 20/80.

RON – PIRATE JENNY

SEAN -

Newmarket 3.00pm

As you can imagine, working on my third juvenile race on the bounce at this meeting, I’m now cheeks puffed out, and feel like a broken record.

Seven winning favourites in the last 10 years, three in the last four.

Only seven going to post but they are all decent horses. Even the 25/1 outsider, ROYAL SCOTSMAN, arrives having won two of his five races to date, and placed in another….and that placed effort came in the Coventry at Royal Ascot!

NOSTRUM has looked serious kit in both starts to date and easily beat HOLLOWAY BOY, who runs in the race before this one, over this course and distance.

Ryan Moore rode that day but is claimed by his boss to ride AESOP’S FABLES here. Beaten at odds on last time out but that was on soft ground. Before that he had looked top drawer.

We have an unbeaten Godolphin runner trading 7/2….and as we always say, until they are beaten, we have no idea how good they are. His last two wins came in Listed class, so he needs to improve to win this and is rated 5lb behind the best horse in the race on official ratings, CHALDEAN.

I’m a little concerned though, that his most impressive win to date came on soft ground. At York, on good ground, he beat INDESTRUCTIBLE by half a length in a Group 3. He then beat that same horse by three and a half lengths in the Champagne at Doncaster. If it rains and we get easy ground, he would be my pick but right now I’m going to plump for NOSTRUM.

The only CD winner in the race, very much on an upward trajectory and he arrives having won last time out….as did four of the last five winners.

A cracking good race and it’s the favourite for me, NOSTRUM.

RON – NOSTRUM

SEAN -

Newmarket 3.40pm (the obligatory handicap)

An end of season flat race, run over a trip most hurdlers would struggle to get. No surprise really, that the last four have been won by NH trainers….Mullins has won three, Nicky Henderson took it last year with BUZZ.

Alan King would join them as three of the top four most successful trainers of horses competing in this race over the last 10 years so, first thing I’m doing is listing horses trained by NH trainers:

INCHICORE
AHORSEWITHNONAME
BABY ZEUS
SCARAMANGA
GIBRALTAR

Three of those are trained by Mullins but interestingly, his go to flat jockey, Ryan Moore, has opted to ride Henderson’s AHORSEWITHNONAME.

A seven year old, that has raced just five times on the flat, winning four and placing in the other.

The winner of six of the last eight of these races has been front three on the tissue and AHORSEWITHNONAME has already been “found” by punters….5/1 > 10/3 favourite.

I’m not going to overegg this omelette….this looks the most likely winner based on stats.

RON – AHORSEWITHNONAME

SEAN -

Newmarket 4.50pm

The last three winners of this went in at 12/1, 18/1 and 11/1 and in 2014 it was 20/1, in 2012 it went to a 12/1 shot.

All a bit Mission Impossible then if those trends stay live.

Seven of the last 10 winners have been 3-y-o’s, so I’ll create a shortlist of those:

ANOTHER ROMANCE
AZURE BLUE
GOLDEN SPICE
LOVELY MANA
MAKAROVA
MANAAFITH
PINK CRYSTAL

They all hit the correct weight ranges so market positions next. I’m looking at the front seven on the tissue first, as eight of the last 10 winners were. So that shortlist now reads

ANOTHER ROMANCE
AZURE BLUE
MANAAFITH
PINK CRYSTAL

Down to four and a dutch will produce a profit at BF odds.

If you are looking for one horse to play 20/80 then it has to be MANAAFITH. His trainer, Roger Varian, is the only trainer with a runner here, that has won this race previously. He has sent six for it, won with one, placed with another.

Six of the last nine winners came from a double figure draw and he has 13….hopefully not unlucky for some!

RON – MANAAFITH

SEAN -

Newmarket 5.20pm

Looks as tough as old boots on paper, not least because the only clue I have from an age and weight banding perspective is you do not want to be carrying more than 9st 3lb….only one of the last 10 winners pulled that off so the only horse I can select from this field is OTTOMAN FLEET.

The market suggests he’s priced right @ 11/2, he’s a 3-y-o and they have won three of the last five renewals.

In the “olden days” between 2013 and 2015 inclusive, I’d have said forget this race as they were won by horses returning SP’s of 25/1, 20/1 and 40/1 but apart from the 28/1 shocker in 2020, this has been easier to solve, with four of the last five winners returning prices of 13/2 or shorter….John Gosden took a pair with winners priced 7/2f and 3/1 last season.

Not a race I’d get heavily involved in and a little 20/80 OTTOMAN FLEET hopefully produce a profit.

RON – OTTOMAN FLEET – 20/80

OMMS

RICKETY GATE – 8/1 > 5/1 – WON 11/4F
JACK THUNDER – 8/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/2
HALF SHOT – 11/1 > 7/2 – WON 3/1

Something for the weekend

RON – AHORSEWITHNONAME

SEAN -

View Details

The text of my side of today's conversation below with Sean's selections added plus, the best of this weeks OMMS and our SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND!

1.40pm Newbury

Six of the last 10 runners were aged five or older, with five year olds winning three of the last five…and the last two.

Market positions tell a tale, too. We had a 12/1 winner last season but generally speaking the winner sits front three on the tissue, but you want to be thinking not the favourite, who last won this in 2014

The only five year olds are MAX VEGA 20/1, and LADY EXCALIBUR, 100/1 so I’m going to work with a six year old, trading shorter than 13/2.

One of those is the current market leader, DUBAI FUTURE, the other is Sir Michael Stoute’s SOLID STONE.

I’ve already stated I don’t like the stats of the favourite so I’m again….for Podcast purposes only, putting up a 20/80 SOLID STONE 20/80.

Stoute has a brilliant record with his runners here…six he has entered for this previously, won with two, placed with two others. The 12/1 winner of this race last year, he’s the only course and distance winner in the race and his form figures in fields of nine or fewer runners on turf read 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 4, that’s a winner of eight of his 14 in such races.

RON – SOLID STONE – 20/80

SEAN - SISKANY

1.55pm Ayr

Five pesky 3-y-o’s in here and they are messing with my mind.

Having said that, three trade 33/1, 500/1 and 500/1….one though, trades very short at @ 5/4

I’m a stats man though and they suggest you need to be working with a five or six year old as they have won six of the nine running’s of this.

Also, arriving favourite isn’t really a good thing. Only two have won, compared to those trading second or third favourite, which have won five.

My feeling is though, the stats get blown out of the water here. Front three on the tissue currently are aged 3, 4 and 9….and the shortest priced older horse MARIE’S DIAMOND, who has drifted from 5/1 > 7/1 since the markets opened.

As we have had only one recent winner bigger than 6/1, I have to look front three for my winner.

I have said I cannot have the younger horses so for Podcast purposes, I’m going 20/80 EUCHAN GLEN.

I’m sure you are more likely to find this winner, than me!

RON – EUCHAN GLEN – 20/80

SEAN – PHANTOM FLIGHT

2.15pm Newbury

You would not be looking to trust one age grouping over another here, the last 10 winners were aged 3, 6, 3, 7, 4, 10, 5, 5, 3, 4….I suppose…and I will do this, is consider working only with those five or younger.

If you are outside the front three on the tissue, you need snookers. Eight of the last 10 winners were trading front three and with only two horses having traded bigger than 9/2, I going with one of either TIS MARVELLOUS, or MANACCAN….3/1 and 7/2 respectively….now, as I’ve just pointed out, anything older than five is binned and with the favourite being aged eight, I have to row in with MANACCAN, the three year old.

I can see that of the 21 horses of that age group that have contested this in the last decade, 25% of them has won or placed.

Not an e.w. price I must go straight win.

RON – MANACCAN

SEAN - MITBAAHY

2.50pm Newbury

The last two winners of this have been fifth on the tissue as they passed the post but prior to that pair, only one of the previous eight had been outside the front two….and five went off favourite.

The last favourite to win this, PIERRE LAPIN, who went on to become a seriously disappointing horse, was trained by Roger Varian, who trains tomorrow’s favourite, SAKHEER.

When the market opened, you could have got 6/4 about this horse….now best price I see is evens. And the rest of the field drifting.

Lightly raced juveniles are impossible to assess so I don’t try….I’ll let history give me clues and they all point to SAKHEER.

He dotted up at Haydock, beating ACAI (who has just run home third in a decent looking Newbury Maiden), by six lengths and whilst that form probably means diddly, and he moves up from Class 4 to Group 2, the market says he wins.

RON – SAKHEER

SEAN – WALLOP E.W.

3.05pm Ayr

Juveniles….that just got stuck in my throat!

Four of the 12 going to post have only had two runs and whilst we have had two winning favourites in the last four running’s, we’ve also had winners at 25/1, 16/1, 11/1 and 16/1 again last year.

Four of the last six winners sat 8th, 6th, 7th and 6th on the tissue and the only way in here that I’m seeing is the official ratings of the winners.

You need your marbles shaking if you get involved in betting such races at this time of year BUT AGAIN, AND PURELY FOR Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a place only punt BAREFOOT ANGEL.

Trained by the only trainer with a runner here, that has won it before, Richard Fahey.

He has actually sent eight for this, won with one, placed with three others. The tard is in form, currently running a 66% RTF figure and the 20/1

RON – BAREFOOT ANGEL – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – QUEEN ME

3.40pm Ayr (handicap)

If the word on the street is right, we have a Group horse in a handicap here. The market tells you all you need to know.

KHANJAR opened 10/1 and was battered….now around 4/1 for a three year old to win a 25 runner all aged handicap. I’m sure we’ll find some clues regarding the draw before that race gores off but I’m already thinking low will be best….and this critter has a lovely box in five.

His trainer, Haggas, won this with a similar kind in NAHAARR two years ago….went off the 7/2 favourite and whilst that horse was a four year old, and more exposed that KHANJAR, the next season it was running in Group races.

It’s going to be pointless my even bothering to try and produce a Rating for this horse because as he’s only raced six times, is unexposed and if you saw him winning at Haydock, in a time that was “fast” by nearly a second, you will not be betting against him tomorrow.

There are horse in this race rated much higher than him officially, trading twice his price or bigger and whilst I like the look of FIVETHOUSANDTOONE, I see no point backing a horse at 12/1, that is exposed, is already officially rated 4lb lower than this three year old and likely to see just his backside. Great draw in three, his trainer has won this twice from just seven previous entries and he looks “place only gold”

Jim Crowley apparently said to Martin Dwyer, “this is a Group horse and I have a great book of rides up there on Saturday”

I’ll pop the Balding runner up place only and again, purely for Podcast purposes!

RON – FIVETHOUSANDTOONE – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – FIVETHOUSANDTOONE – PLACE ONLY

3.55pm Gowran Park

A scary Irish 15 runner Group 3 and I’m looking at it from a stats angle and rubbing my chin. The 3-y-o’s used to dominate this….won it in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015….but they’ve only won it twice since. Four and five year olds have won two a piece in the last six years.

I’m thinking that perhaps we say a three, four or five year old, trading 6/1 or shorter….I’m picking that price range because six of the last 10 winners were actually 11/2 or shorter.

On the tissue I have that gives me:

GALLERIA BORGHESE
KAWIDA
TRANQUILL LADY

Ed Walker trains the middle named and the Brits have won this twice in the last 10 years but that only tells me it usually stays at home.

The first named is trained by Aiden O’Brien, the last named by Joseph O’Brien but the best drawn is surely GALLERIA BORGHESE, who breaks from the three box. You do not win this race from a double figure draw and Joseph’s runner has 17.

I have to go with Aiden’s runner.

RON – GALLERIA BORGHESE

SEAN – TRANQUILO LADY

OMMS

3) GENOVESE – 18/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2

2) MONTE IGUELDO – 25/1 > 12/1 – WON 14/1

1) PREMIER BEAUTY – 80/1 > 20/1 – WON 80/1

Something for the weekend

RON – SAKHEER

SEAN – QUEEN ME

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Lots of content this week and more than an hour of good racing talk, hopefully sensible comment (you decide!), and we've 10 races assessed (some great, some pants!...you decide!!), and we will hopefully produce a profit for you again this weekend.

The text of my side of this weeks Podcast chatter below, with Sean's selections added.

Friday

6.00pm Tipperary

If trends hold up, this will be won by a horse aged three, or four. Nine of the last 10 running’s have been and the only horse to break the sequence was Roger Varian’s 5-y-o REALTRA, in 2017.

Weight ranges offer no clues as everything carried over 9st so I’m looking at how well the market got on in locating previous winners.

The biggest priced winner of this in the last 10 years was LADY WINGSHOT @ 10/1, in 2012 and eight of the last 10 winners were no bigger than 9/2 so, I want a three or four year old, trading shorter that 5/1.

I have a tissue of sorts and only one horse fits – AGARTHA.

She is one of four Joseph O’Brien runs in this, which accounts for more than a third of the entire field, something I hate because who knows what they actually want to happen?

She is back in her right league, having been running in Group 1 races the last twice. She finished fifth in the Irish 1000Gns and then they sent her to Belmont Park for their Oaks, at the beginning of July, and she finished 10th of the 10 runners.

This is nothing like as big a pond as that and her form figures to date have her pegged as ultra-consistent. Twelve runs, won or placed in nine of them.

She’s my selection here.

RON – AGARTHA

SEAN - AGARTHA

6.35pm Tipperary

Dandy Nicholls won this with INEXILE back in 2012 and the Brits won three of these between 2012 and 2016. That last winner coincided with a spate of big priced winners 12/1, 14/1, 9/1, 8/1 and 14/1….we had a 4/9 shot go in, in 2020 but this has become tough to solve.

I’m getting no help from age grouping….three winners aged three, four winners aged five, a seven year old and a pair aged eight. Weight ranges are all over the place, too so trends wise I’m stuck.

Purely for Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a 20/80 TEES SPIRIT. He is trained by Dandy’s son, Adrian and this 4-y-o gelding could not have won his last race any easier, destroying a decent Class 3 handicap under 10st, pulling a caravan.

I’ve never thought that, at sprint trips, there is much between good handicappers and Listed Class and his 10 draw is not a bad box to break from either. Five of the last eight winners won from stall eight of higher so yep, a little 20/80 TEES SPIRIT.

RON – TEES SPIRIT – 20/80

SEAN – ANO SYRA

Saturday

Goodwood 1.50pm

I don’t spend much time on juvenile races for the reasons stated in many a previous Podcast and we saw only very recently the best horse in such a race going into it, based on Royal Ascot form, had regressed so much it finished up one of the worst on that day.

I was interested in a comment made by Sir Mark Prescott after HOORAY won the Cheveley Park in 2010 and he was asked about races next season, such as the 100Gns. He said straight, “no chance, this family doesn’t train on”.

True enough, next season, 8th of 18 in the 1000Gns, won a little Listed race at Epsom, then ran seventh in the Golden Jubilee.

Ran three more times after that, did nothing, packed off to stud.

So, all juveniles, all carry 9st 2lb, and the only clues I now look for are market position but, as we’ve seen many times, they are only in the position they hold because of the early juvenile form produced, or which stables they run for.

We had a 7/1 winner last year but prior to that, nine winners returned 5/1 or shorter, and seven of those 10 winners were front two on the tissue….and seven of the 10 winners won this, having won last time out.

I have three contenders and only one of them won last time out so, my selection is BRIGHT DIAMOND….but part with money? Not in a month of Sundays.

RON – BRIGHT DIAMOND – 20/80

SEAN – BRIGHT DIAMOND

Beverley 2.40pm

RON – TIS MARVELLOUS

SEAN – TIS MARVELLOUS

Goodwood 3.00pm

Only four going to post, two of those priced 28/1 and 250/1 and a favourite in HOO YA MAL, 8/13, that has won only one race previously, and been sold to race down under for £1.2m ….someone down there has more money than sense.

The second favourite won a Class 2 Handicap last time out and if he turns the favourite over they’ll be asking for their money back.

RON – HOO YA MAL

SEAN – HOO YA MAL

Newmarket 3.15pm

A proper race.

Currently 11 going to post and from an age group perspective, we definitely want to be with horses aged 5+ as seven of the last 10 winners….and three of the last four, were.

Eight of the last 10 winners carried between 9st and 9st 6lb and the market position of those previous winners says that if you sit outside the front five on the tissue, forget it.

I have two qualifiers based on those trends and one of them is last years winner SUMMERGHAND, who should have won the Stewards Cup but was drawn wrong side, but made up for that from a perfect draw last weekend….and we made a few quid off it.

He is now an eight year old and in the last 10 years, nothing older than seven has pulled this off so my pick has to be GREAT AMBASSADOR, who ran sixth in the Stewards Cup where his middle draw was a hinderance. He was bumped when about to make his challenge that day and did very well to be beaten less than three lengths.

I’ll put up Ed Walker’s horse, 20/80

RON – GREAT AMBASSADOR – 20/80

SEAN - DANEH

Goodwood 3.35pm

Another small field Group race with an out and out handicapper trading 11/2 to win it. £71k to the winner….makes me want to weep.

The last four winners have been aged 3, 4, 5, 6….and before that, 6, 5, 3….a 20/1 winner last time, a 20/1 winner in 2012 but in between times five winning favourites and no winner bigger than 9/2.

The Handicapper I mention has won just one race since 2019 and after 61 career starts is, to say the least, ruthlessly exposed.

By contrast, the second favourite, JADOOMI, has seen turf just six times, won twice, place four times. He is trained by the same connections as won this in 2020 and if I were not doing this Podcast thingy, I’d not have given this thing a second look.

JADOOMI for Podcast purposes only.

RON – JADOOMI

SEAN - JADOOMI

Curragh 3.40pm

One of the problems I have with Irish races 48 hours ahead of time, is tissue prices.

We definitely want a 3-y-o onside here because they’ve won the last three, and nine of the last 10.

Aiden O’Brien has won this five times, but not since 2019. He saddles LULLABY, who looks to be one of those not trained on from her 2-y-o days….not that she was much cop as a juvenile!

We had a 16/1 winner last season but prior to that nothing bigger than 4/1 so I’m going to plump for a 3-y-o, trading 4/1 or shorter….but with no tissue, I cannot give you a name!

RON – SEISAI

SEAN - SEISAI

Windsor 6.05pm

Again, no tissue so it’s very much as that Curragh race.

I’ve no preferred age grouping, as the last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged three (4), four (3), five (1) and six (2) but I do not want a horse carrying less than 9st onside.

I do want a horse trading front three on the tissue though and so the winner of this, if the runes speak true, will be carrying 9st or more, and trading front three. If I had to pick a preferred age group I’d say three, as four wins in 10 years, with a pair in the last three years, suggests a strong trend may be emerging.

However, the 3-y-o’s carry less than 9st so right now I’m sitting in a canoe, no paddle, stream leading me to the rapids!

The only previous winner in here, at the distance, is the 2018 winner DESERT ENCOUNTER, but he is 0-7 ground, currently described as soft….which I should point out, none of the eight runners has won on.

Even for Podcast purposes I’m struggling to find a play here so I’ll abstain.

RON – NO SELECTION

SEAN - MAKSUD

Windsor 6.35pm

After the big build up last time, how disappointing was GROCER JACK? Not sure he’ll like the soft ground on Saturday, either….mind you, could be 200 degrees down there and dry it to a crisp!

Horses aged 5+ dominate this race, too but I wouldn’t want anything older than six. The only horse older than six to take this was the horse that won the race above in 2018….he also won this in 2019. DESERT ENCOUNTER clearly likes this gaff

It’s another race I need a tissue for but have nowt….but we again want to be front three….and with seven of the last nine winners also carrying 9st or more, I’m looking for a five or six year old, trading front three on the tissue, and carrying the required weight.

That makes it one of GROCER JACK or MAJESTIC DAWN and as I doubt GROCER JACK wants it soft, and with MAJESTIC DAWN 1-3 on it, and also 3-11 trip, I’ll pop that up as my Podcast pick….but only if he’s front three on that tissue.

RON – MAJESTIC DAWN

SEAN – GROCER JACK

OMMS

CHALDEAN – 7/1 > 5/1 – WON 7/2

DEAUVILLE LEGEND – 5/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/2

STREETS OF GOLD – 10/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/2F

Something for the weekend

RON – GREAT AMBASSADOR – 20/80

SEAN - SEISAI

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A Podcast full of things to think about and are the OMMS the reason we may lose BOG?

Please find the text of my side of the racing chat below, with Sean's selections added.

Friday

3.10pm Newbury

I’m sorry Oisin Murphy isn’t riding here because he has won three of the last four of these, for different trainers….I wonder which trainer his agent would have been calling?

Punters thinking of getting involved here need to be aware we’ve seen five of the last eight winners returning SP’s of 10/1 or bigger, and that includes four of the last five winners.

I am not a fan of juvenile races, as you know. That’s because I know nothing like enough about them. Going back to our conversation earlier about horses not maturing until they are five years of age, the improvement a horse can show after one or two runs makes them impossible to predict.

If I apply trends….or try to….all I have here is previous market position because they are all 2-y-o’s carrying the same weight.

If I try to use just the markets I’m seeing three winning favourites in the first five of the last 10 running’s, before the market became clueless and we saw these big priced winners.

I have spotted a couple of things that have me looking at a double figure priced one.

The current favourite is MAYLANDSEA at around 5/2…not to be taken as Gospel right now but that’s what I have. However, he went off 11/5 last time, finished last of six, with CARMELA over two lengths ahead of the Bell trained filly.

Now this is silly, I know, but what else can I do here?....four of the last five winners have been named just one word, consisting of no fewer than six letters and no more than seven. They have all been a double figure price.

CARMELA is 12/1, ridden by Hollie Doyle and was ridden in that previous race by her now husband, Tom Marquand, so he’ll hopefully have been telling his missus a little about the horse. I ask the question though, why is the horse that finished two plus lengths behind her 5/2 favourite, with 12/1 available about Loughnane’s filly? Obviously her Queen Mary second is the best form here but she blew out big time next time out and I wonder was she simply an early juvenile who is now going backwards?

I’d not have a bet in a race like this to save my life but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest CARMELA 20/80 but definitely advise you wait until you see what the OMMS tell us.

RON – CARMELA 20/80

SEAN - MAYLANDSEA

6.00pm Cork

Joseph O’Brien won this last year with SNAPRAETEREA, who runs again this year. However, the ground in 2021 soft, whilst tomorrow, it’ll be much faster and he’s 0-7 on the genuine good ground they say they have right now.

The trainer is also represented by the 6-y-o SAN ANDREAS and, as only one horse older than five has won this in the last 10 years, I have to rule both out.

Before 2020 this race went to seven favourites in the previous eight years, and it was won by six of them on the bounce 2014 – 2019 inclusive.

Six of the last seven winners were aged three, or four and eight of the last 10 winners also carried more than 9st.

The most logical selection right now would be MUTASARREF. He is the current favourite, a 4-y-o, and is 3-5 ground, 4-6 trip.

His trainer, Ger Lyons, won this with BRENDAN BRACKEN back in 2014, ridden by Colin Keane, and I think that pair will do it again.

RON – MUTASARREF

SEAN - CIGAMIA

7.40pm Cork

Three year olds have dominated this in the last decade, winning eight of the last 10 renewals.

Dermot Weld (6), and Aiden O’Brien (3) have won nine of those last 10 races and with Weld not represented here, I must select the currently unbeaten 3-y-o PEROTAN, trained by O’Brien and ridden by Wayne Lordan, who rode the filly to win last time out at Down Royal.

She drops back in trip tomorrow but won over 12 furlongs on debut. However, that was on soft ground and her win over 14 furlongs came on good. It could be she has her ground but not her trip?

Six of the last nine winners all carried less than 9st and only two of the last 10 winners went off bigger than 6/1.

PEROTAN is currently the 10/3 second favourite, is unexposed, unbeaten in two previous races, racing for the top yard in Ireland and I see no reason to oppose her.

RON – PEROTAN

SEAN - PEROTAN

Saturday

Newbury 1.55pm (5 runners)

Another juvenile race and given how I work, a nightmare. Now only five go to post and if I tell you the winner is usually found in the front four on the tissue, you’re going to think, “he’s being a smart wotsit!”.

The favourite has won six of the last nine and I’m going to assume that will be VICTORY DANCE who is the best horse in here, “officially”.

But how good are the three at the bottom of the weights, that arrive here unbeaten so far?

My selection here is simply “unnamed favourite”. Whichever the market points to is the one I’ll be with but I’d not bet a bean on it.

RON - UNNAMED FAVOURITE

SEAN – FERRARI QUEEN

Newbury 2.30pm (5 runners)

Have you ever seen a worse Group 3 paying £40k to the winner? It should have been sent to it’s room and told it was not getting any dinner!

Another five runner race, this time over very nearly 14 furlongs and if they have this heat, they go no pace, it’ll turn into a sprint and the form will be worth absolutely nowt….plus we’ll have most likely backed a loser.

No horse arrives here for this race in any form at all.

Seven of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue (me being a smart “wotsit” again) and only OUTBOX has won over this trip. I’m thinking though, that ZECHARIAH has improved for it and, if they go a crawl, and having been beaten only six + lengths in the Craven by NATIVE TRAIL, he might be the one with a bit of speed about him.

He is the most likely favourite, his nose defeat at big odds in the Queens Vase is probably the best form on offer and purely because we’ve turned up to do the Podcast, I’ll put him up

RON – ZECHARIAH

SEAN - ZECHARIAH

Newbury 3.00pm (7 runners)

A little handicap has been thrown into the mix and I’ll have figures for it on the day (if all seven go to post) and I note Clive Cox has won the last two running’s of this race, both aged three. He saddles DANCE FEVER, aged five, who has only won a pair of his 14 career starts on turf to date, finishing placed six times….clearly prefers running with the herd as opposed to leading it. Probably better on all weather tracks, where he is 2-4.

Cox has actually has two winners and two placed from six runners in this, in the last decade and whilst I need to see how the market forms tomorrow evening, if I were betting now it would be a place only DANCE FEVER.

RON – DANCE FEVER (PLACE ONLY)

SEAN – DANCE FEVER

The Curragh 3.30pm (7 runners)

I have issues with juveniles races, as you will have already gathered and here we have seven of the critters going to post, a few already exposed though.

Age and weight ranges tell me nothing but what does is who trained previous winners.

Ger Lyons has targeted this race….and farmed it. He has saddled he last two winners and, five of the last eight. On Saturday he saddles MAUIEWOWIE, a winner on debut, who subsequently ran well to finish second to the Alice Haynes trained LADY HOLLYWOOD.

He was beaten at slight odds on that day but the English raider is very well thought of and MAUIEWOWIE finished clear of the third best.

Eight of the last 10 winners have gone off 3/1 or shorter and whilst I have no tissue for this race right now, if the Lyons runner first the bill from the market perspective, that’s my selection.

RON – MAUIEWOWIE

SEAN - BADB

Newbury 3.35pm (10 runners)

The only proper race being run on Saturday but every horse is currently on the drift.

It could be lightning fast ground by the time the gates open but something has to win it and all I can do is cast the runes and see what happens.

It’ll be won by a three or four year old. They have won nine of the last 10, with six going to those older horses. Thirteen of the 29 runners that have represented four year olds in the last 10 years have won (6), or placed (7).

Seven have carried no more than 9st 6lb but no less than 9st and, the returned SP’s of the last 10 winners suggests 6/1 or shorter is our price range. The last four winners all returned 6/1 or shorter as have six of the last 10 winners.

William Haggas has trained two of the last seven winners but considering he has only saddled three for the race in the last 10 years, 2-3 is red hot….he saddles the current 3-Y-O favourite TIBER FLOW.

If we accept the runes speak true, then this rests between that one, and CHINDIT.

Hannon, the trainer of that one, has sent five for this in the last decade and only managed to have one hit the frame.

With absolutely no confidence at all, I’ll pop TIBER FLOW up for a 20/80 but it’s another race I want to see how the market is reacting to underfoot conditions, before betting.

RON – TIBER FLOW

SEAN – TIBER FLOW

The Curragh 4.40pm (6 runners)

Only six runners, two trained by Joseph O’Brien, one by Aiden and another by Donnacha O’Brien.

Aiden won seven of these on the bounce between 2014 and 2020 inclusive before that run was stopped last year by Joseph.

We have seen no winner bigger than 5/1….TWILIGHT PAYMENT last year being that 5/1 winner….who also just happened to be the oldest winner at the age of eight, to have seen the winners enclosure in the last decade.

Generally you want to be with three and four year olds but I need to have a bet in a race like this, like I need a hole in the head. The best of the three year olds would appear to be TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS, who won for Aiden at Chester, before then transferring to Joseph. Aiden saddles HONEYCOMBE who, to date, looks worse than bog standard.

Beaten 22 lengths in a maiden last time out on soft ground over 12 furlongs, on Saturday they go up to 14 furlongs on good. What difference will that make? You tell me.

I have to put one up so will say TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS but again, with absolutely no confidence in the horse at all.

RON – TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS

SEAN – SEARCH FOR A SONG

OMMS

BAILEYSGUTFEELING – 6/1 > 4/1 > 3/1 (STRONG) – WON 3/1
SILVER DOLLAR – 10/1 > 7/1 – WON 8/1
DOUBLE LEGEND – 12/1 > 11/2 > 10/1 – WON 22/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?

RON – ZECHARIAH / MAUIEWOWIE – E.W. DOUBLESEAN – SEARCH FOR A SONG

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Please find below the text of my side of the Podcast chat with Sean's selections added to each of the races discussed plus, his Something for the Weekend!

3.00pm Haydock

A good size field for this Group 3 with 10 runners currently going to post.

I’m seeing no age trends here other than I don’t want to be with anything aged older than five. Three, four- and five-year-olds have dominated this in the last decade.

They all carry 9st 7lb so my next port of call has to be the markets.

Six of the last 10 winners, and the last three, went off a single figure price, and we’ve had two winning favourites in the last three years, too.

That lot automatically narrows this down to a pair:

GROCER JACK
ANMAAT

The first named was having his third run for Haggas last time out and I wrote in my notebook, “the most impressive winner I have seen this season”.

He took a Listed race apart, winning it by nine lengths and looked Group 1 material in doing it. That got him an official rating of 118 which means that ANMAAT, rated 109, has to give him 9lb tomorrow.

GROCER JACK has an entry in the Champion Stakes at the end of the season and the 33/1 he is currently priced up at for that Group 1, will go up in smoke if he wins this by nine lengths!

Has to be GROCER JACK for me.

RON – GROCER JACK

SEAN – GROCER JACK

3.15pm The Curragh

UK trainers have won two of the last six running’s of this and are well represented tomorrow. They saddle two of the front three in the market and three of the first eight on that tissue.

It’s another good, competitive race, with 12 going to post as I type, and I’m seeing a definite age bias towards three and four year olds, eight of the last 10 winners heading their way.

We do get the odd long priced winner, two of the last three winners priced 16/1 and 12/1 but usually it’s something currently trading shorter than 11/2. In fact, six of the last 10 winners returned SP’s shorter than 9/2.

Right now my trends narrow this down to GO BEARS GO and the Ger Lyons trained POWER UNDER ME.

On official figures there should be a cigarette paper between them and because of that, and the current tissue prices, GO BEARS GO 11/4 and POWER UNDER ME 9/2, I have to go with the Irish trained horse 20/80.

Trainer RTF%age figures also suggest that Lyons (56%) has his running better than Loughnane (39%) right now and if he hits the frame, I draw a profit.

RON – POWER UNDER ME – 20/80

SEAN – GO BEARS GO

2-52pm Redcar

Lovely. A double figure field Handicap for me to get stuck into. Obviously the figures will go out to subscribed members tomorrow and if the run of recent results they are producing continues, we’ll draw a profit.

If anyone listening that is not currently subscribed fancies joining us, they’ll find a link to our packages on the page the Podcast player sits in!

For Podcast purposes I’ll produce Scribblings.

Six of the nine running’s of this have been aged four. Twenty five of that age group have tried to win this in those nine years and four more have also placed.

The logical selection….I stress again for Podcast purposes only, is A BOY NAMED IVY. Four years of age, drawn in stall one, a previous course and distance winner, and Michael Dodds has sent five for this, placed with three so the 20/80 @ 13/2 looks pretty well sure to produce a profit off the “80”.

Like I say, check the Ratings tomorrow and if top three, have a proper punt.

RON – A BOY NAMED IVY – 20/80

SEAN – PARK STREET E.W.

3.35pm Haydock

Another double figure field….we are being spoiled this weekend!

Nine of the last 10 winners of this were aged three or four. Prior to 2018 the younger horses dominated it, winning six on the bounce but the last four years have seen three go to four-year-olds, one to a five year old.

Interestingly, the market in the last five years has produced a winning favourites.

Now comes the conundrum.

The front four on the tissue right now are 3-y-o’s and they are all trained by Newmarket trainers, who have dominated this winning the last nine of them.

The draw on slower ground at Haydock tends to favour lower drawn runners and seven of the last 10 winners were drawn six, or lower.

The only horse winking at me right now is OSCULA, who did us a good turn last time out at Goodwood, an OMM 14/1 > 5/1, that won @ 10/3F

Ultra consistent, hard as nails, and a bargain buy at 4000GNS, I’ll take her to win again.

RON – OSCULA

SEAN - OSCULA

3.40pm Newmarket

Me and juvenile races will never get on for obvious reasons and here we have nine of the critters lining up, none of which has ever raced more than three times. Three have only seen a racecourse once!

So, 2-y-o’s, all carrying 9st 2lb and all I can do is look to see what the market made of it. We had a 66/1 winner two seasons back and a 10/1 winner in 2017 but generally speaking you do not want a price tag bigger than 7/1 and you also want to be trained by either Mark Johnston (three of the last eight winners and two of the last four), or Richard Hannon (two of the last six winners).

We have a Mark Johnston runner, LAKOTA SIOUX, currently the 10/3f and with nothing else trends/stats related for me to work with, that filly gets my vote.

She broke her maiden winning by over six lengths before running a cracker in the Chesham finishing third @ 33/1. It could be said that form is pants because the winner, second and fourth, fifth have all been beaten since but I’ll put it up….not betting a bean though!

RON – LAKOTA SIOUX

SEAN - NOVAKAI

4.15pm The Curragh

Hollie Doyle has been given the leg up again on BRADSELL, the easy winner of this season’s Coventry Stakes which, unlike the Chesham, has seen the form franked by the runner up who recently won a Group 2 easily.

That horse, PERSIAN FORCE, is currently third favourite tomorrow, BRADSELL trading the 7/4 favourite, with the Aiden O’Brien runner LITTLE BIG BEAR, a winner of his last three, the 5/2 second favourite.

One heck of a race this but I’m definitely favourite the Coventry form over the Windsor Castle won by Aiden’s horse. He beat ROCKET RODNEY by a neck that day and that horse failed at Group 3 level last time up.

I have to go with BRADSELL to confirm form with PERSIAN FORCE as that was just the second run for the Watson trained colt and I see no reason why he will not beat the runner up again.

RON – BRADSELL

SEAN – SHARTASH

OMMS

REEL ROSIE - 14/1 > 5/1 - WON 11/2
GEORGIA MADELAINE - 11/1 > 7/2 - WON 10/3
MISS ATTITUDE - 10/1 > 5/1 - WON 16/1

Something for the weekend!

RON – A BOY NAMED IVY 20/80

SEAN - OSCULA

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Plenty of chat, six races covered over the next two days and a selection from both Sean and myself which we hope pays for the weekend.

All the text of my side of the conversation below, for our hard of hearing listeners.

Friday

Goodwood 2.25pm

BAAEED won this last year, TILSIT the year before. One is now a superstar, the other has only won once since, and not seen since July last year.

In 2019 it was won by DUKE OF HAZARD, who won once more but has not won since his 3-y-o season.

I’m inclined to think the winner of this will emulate those winners that arrived before BAAEED!

Seven go to post, and as they are all 3-y-o’s, carrying 9st 3lb, so all I can do with this is look at previous winners and their market positions.

You need to be front three on the tissue and five of the last nine favourites have obliged so you have to think BAYSIDE BOY has a chance based on those stats. His form ain’t bad, either!

He may have been only seventh in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes but he was just two lengths off the winner….but a neck behind the current third best on the tissue, BERKSHIRE SHADOW.

I’m going with BERKSHIRE SHADOW. The reason being trainer form in this race. Varian trains the favourite and he has sent six for this, placed with three, no winners. Balding trains BERKSHIRE SHADOW and he has sent two for it, won with one.

Also, you ideally need to be arriving having won or placed last time out as eight of the last 10 winners had done so.

RON – BERKSHIRE SHADOW

SEAN – BAYSIDE BOY

Goodwood 3.35pm

A double figure field and I have given it a big hug!

However, from a trends perspective it is skewed like a skewed thing because BATTAASH won it four years on the bounce between 2-17 and 2020, and TAKE COVER won it twice….2014 and 2016.

All that makes it nigh on impossible for me to apply age groupings, market position and, as they all bar one carry in excess of 9st, weight ranges are null.

I recall watching EQUILATERAL running at Sandown on July 2nd, when he finished sixth to RAASEL, and thinking, “what an unlucky loser that was!” But he only wins in autumn, or winter….and only in winter because they’ve packed him off to Dubai.

I’m going to suggest MITBAAHY. He is one of those pesky 3-y-o’s and was second to RAASEL in that same Sandown race. Watch it back and you’ll see how unlucky he was, too!

The Racing Post says, “….not clear run from over 1f out, ridden when switched left and bumped inside final furlong, squeezed through and went second on far rail inside final 110 yards, ran on, did well in the circumstances”

Given a clean run he gets his revenge on RAASEL tomorrow and 3-y-o’s do well in this race. Only 38 have tried to win it in the last 10 years, three have done so, three more placing.

MITBAAHY for me.

RON – MITBAAHY

SEAN – PONNTOS E.W.

Goodwood 4-10pm

Sir Michael Stoute farmed this in recent times, three winners in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Given he has only sent five for this in the last decade, to win with three and place with another suggests he knows what he needs to have one involved at the finish.

Traditionally you want a four or five year old onside. They have won seven of the last 10.

Everything carts more than 9st so no clues there but the market does give us a clue or two. No winners priced bigger than 15/2 in the last decade and right now we have two market qualifiers:

REBEL’S ROMANCE – 4-Y-O
REGAL REALITY – 7-YO

The first named is clear favourite @ 13/8, and it’s 6/1 REGAL REALITY (the Stoute representative). It’s 8/1 bar the pair.

You could dutch to make a profit but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest a 20/80 REGAL REALITY.

The favourite has not won in the UK since 2020, four of his five wins to date coming on “sand”. The same thing applies to REGAL REALITY….not won since 2020 (it’s a bad race in truth), and I’d rather have 6/1 about a horse in a race like this, that 13/8.

That record Stoute has also suggests a run for my money.

RON – REGAL REALITY – 20/80

SEAN – REBEL’S ROMANCE

Saturday

Newmarket 2.25pm

The third largest field on the Newmarket card on Saturday, as seven go to post. Newmarket has definitely fallen foul of the small field syndrome this season.

Three year olds have won six of the last 10 running’s of this….and also the last three and the pair of Gosden’s EMOTION and ELEGANT VERSE, are the ones interesting me most.

Since this market opened it’s EMOTION for money 12/1 > 7/2, and whilst the tissue favourite, ROSE OF KILDARE, has also seen plenty of interest 11/2 > 9/4F, she’s a five year old. Seven of that age have tried winning this in the last 10 years, only one has even placed.

Favourites also have a poor record, just two winning in that time span.

I’m going for EMOTION.

RON – EMOTION

SEAN – ROSE OF KILDARE

Goodwood 2.45pm

This should be very easy to sort out as the winner will be aged four or five, carrying more than 9st and trading front three on the tissue….four of the last five favourites….and six of the last nine….have won this race and everything points to SEA LA ROSA.

There has actually been just one winner priced bigger than 6/1 in the last 10 years and nothing bigger than 9/2 since 2016.

Several things suggest taking 13/8 is lunacy though. First, she arrives having been beaten last time out. Six of the last 10 winners, and three of the last four, arrived having won.

Second….Haggas cannot buy the winner of this race. He has sent five for it in those 10 years I work with and only one has placed.

Will she stay the 14 furlongs? She is the only runner in here never having tried it. Of those that have, only YESYES has won…1-2 at it.

The trainer of YESYES won this with 3-y-o in 2015 and from 10 entries has also saddled a pair to come second. Thing is, they are only offering you 7/1 about a horse that has been missing for 301 days….but that last run came in a French Group 1 when beaten five lengths and inches by LOVING DREAM.

In three runs at this trip or further, she has finished 1, 3, 7….if I must have a bet here, then I’d go 20/80 YESYES but to buttons.

The best horse at the weights is EMILY DICKINSON who is rated 3lb behind the favourite but gets 12lb.

I’ll go place only YESYES but to buttons.

RON – YESYES (PLACE ONLY)

SEAN - YESYES

Goodwood 3.20pm Stewards Cup

I will profile this but it’s all a bit like chucking dice up a table.

From an age grouping perspective, we learn nothing, as 3-y-o’s have won three, 4-y-o’s three and older horses four, of the last 10.

I do not want to be carrying less than 9st but neither do I want a horse carrying my bet, having more than 9st 6lb on it’s back, either.

Perhaps surprisingly, three of the last seven favourites have won and five o the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue, too.

Equally, I can tell you three of the last five winners returned SP’s of 25/1, 20/1 and 22/1.

Right now they go 10/1 the field but if I apply a few things to this, we might have something to punt.

Nothing older than six, nothing carrying less than 9st, nothing carrying more than 9st 6lb. Nothing priced bigger than 20/1. Drawn low, or drawn high….not middle.

Four of the last six winners were drawn 4, 1, 4, 3….another four drawn 26, 22, 25, 23

INVER PARK (15)
WHENTHEDEALISDONE (25)
FIRST FOLIO (4)
POPMASTER (3)

They are all positioned spot on in the market and right now, I’m liking POPMASTER, drawn in three. INVER PARK, the tissue favourite, has 15 and slap bang middle is dodgy ground.

For Podcast purposes, Ed Walkers gelding gets a shekel e.w. thrown at it but a dutch WHENTHEDEALISDONE, FIRST FOLIO and POPMASTER looks a play.

RON – POPMASTER 20/80

SEAN – COMMANCHE FALLS E.W.

OMMS

OSCULA – 14/1 > 5/1 – WON 10/3F
LORD RIDDIFOR – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 10/1
SANDRINE – 20/1 > 12/1 – WON 12/1

Something for the weekend

RON – MITBAAHY

SEAN – LETHAL LEVI

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A very full Podcast this week with a look back at Royal Ascot, discussion about both Frankie and Hollie (Relax, nothing to do with going to Hollywood!), and the search for weekend winners, including the Irish Derby.

Please find below my side of the conversation, with Sean's selection added for our hard of hearing members.

Friday

6.43pm The Curragh

Now this is a race that, if it were being run in my back garden, I’d close the curtains. At least punters can play e.w. three places.

In the last nine years this has gone to Aiden O’Brien six times and Joseph O’Brien twice. They are responsible for five of the eight runners.

The trip of 14 furlongs is alien to all but MASTER OF REALITY, who is 3-14 over it, and WORDSWORTH, who is 1-3.

MASTER OF REALITY seems to have an aversion to the Curragh as he has raced there seven times and has form figures reading 3, 5, 6, 2, 2, 13, 4 whereas WORDSWORTH has form figures at this track reading 2, 1, 3, 5, 3

Now, we have three 3-y-o’s in here, two of them trained by Aiden O’Brien, who has saddled three of that age to win this race in the last seven years.

Will either of them stay? I have absolutely no idea and the idea of parting with money to find out is not overly appealing.

If I was given stolen money I would not bet here but for Podcast purposes I’ll have to go with WORDSWORTH, even though he only ran at Royal Ascot a few days ago and he needs to have got over the race, and the travelling.

Ryan Moore rides and you would hope they’ve put him up on the first string….but who knows?

RON – WORDSWORTH

SEAN - WORDSWORTH

7.10pm Newcastle

I am starting to take a bit more notice of the all-weather racing here as the Newmarket lads send decent runners up and this Group 3 is no exception.

They would have been better transferring the race down there and saving fuel….and the planet!

I only have six previous running’s of this race to work with but they do provide enough clues for me to arrive at a selection.

Only one winner bigger than 3/1, four winning favourites….three in the last four running’s and five of the six winners were front two in the market at the off.

I’m going to row in with MY ASTRA.

She has raced five times and gone off favourite for every race. Four of those races have been on turf and she has won three of them, placed in the other. Last time out she won a Listed raced by 12 lengths.

Her only defeat on turf came on heavy ground and her only run on an all-weather surface resulted in a defeat when she was third of seven.

The favourite, I should add, has never yet finished out of the first two in this race and she is a Placepot banker, if nothing else but I’ll say she beats the 1000Gns seventh, ROGUE MILLENIUM.

RON – MY ASTRA

SEAN – POPTRONIC E.W.

Saturday

2.05pm Newmarket

Juvenile races and I never see eye to eye, especially those that don’t produce solid trends.

When I’m working on such races, even for The Specials, I cringe…but this has me hiding behind the couch. Obviously they are all the same age, carrying the same weight so, my only port of call is the market.

Five of the last 10 winners went of favourite, or joint favourite, but four of the last eight winners returned SP’s of 25/1, 8/1, 9/1 and last year, 22/1.

The Hannon clan have won four of the last 10, Richard Junior nailing a pair of the last five, including that 22/1 shot.

His MINNETONKA opened short @ 6/4 but I’m now seeing 11/4 but markets this early are always wrong.

The last five winners arrived having won or finishing second last time out. Three of the last four winners had only seen a racecourse once and I’m going to suggest this lies between MINNETONKA and LEZOO.

They are trained by the blokes that trained the last two winners of this, Hannon and Beckett, both one run, both won. They are the only horses in this race that do qualify.

I’m going to run with MINNETONKA. Hannon has the third home in the race win by LEZOO at Bath and his horse is also a distance winner on debut.

Fair to say Hannon targets this race, too….nine runners, two winners, two placed.

Straight win for me.

RON – MINNETONKA

SEAN - MINNETONKA

2.25pm Newcastle

Currently 12 going to post, which makes a pleasant change!

The 3-y-o’s perform well in this, given the low number that have tried to win it in the last 10 years. Only 14 of that age group have come for this, two have won, three have placed but the same can be said for 4-y-o’s which have seen 27 turn up, four win it and a further four placing.

The last 3-y-o to win it was KOROPICK in 2017 and before that, DANZENO in 2014.

I have to go with older horses based on the age trends.

Only two of the last 10 winners were outside the front five on the tissue and interestingly, the only two that went off clear favourite in the last decade, won at odds on.

We will not have an odds on shot on Saturday and so what I’m going to do is work with older horses, front five on the tissue, but not the favourite.

SPYCATCHER
GLEN SHIEL
EDRAAK

The current odds allow a dutch but for a solo punt for Podcast purposes, I’ll put up SPYCATCHER.

I’m noticing that six of the last 10 winners arrived having failed to finish front four and only the Karl Burke runner fits that criteria.

SPYCATCHER opened 7/1 for this and is being supported so let’s go 20/80.

RON – SPYCATCHER – 20/80

SEAN – SENSE OF DUTY

2.40pm Newmarket

What a horrible little runt of a race this has turned into.

Five runner Listed race, none having visited a winner’s enclosure this season, only a pair of them even placing and one of those is the 20/1 outsider, who probably finished second in a trolley dash around Tesco.

Godolphin and Appleby are responsible for the front two on the tissue, KEMARI and REBEL’S ROMANCE and the second named is currently put in a favourite…never won on the going as is currently described, never won at the trip….or the track.

The winner of this in 2020 UNIVERSAL ORDER, tries again and I’m thinking that, for a laugh, I put him up on account of his trainer’s brilliant record in the race.

David Simcock has sent five for this, won it with three but a word of warning. His yard is not in great form, a RTF%age figure of 50% not telling the whole truth. In the last 14 days he has sent out 12 runners….no winners.

Most likely Godolphin win it but I’ll take UNIVERSAL ORDER simply because of Simcock’s record in the race.

RON – UNIVERSAL ORDER

SEAN - KEMARI

3.15pm Newmarket

In the last 10 years, if you had simply Dutched the front two in the market as they were loading the stalls, you would have achieved a profit nine times.

The winner, if the market is as it is now when they kick off, is one of LANEQASH or SUNRAY MAJOR.

You do not want to arrive a winner last time out, and as only one of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st 7lb, a horse you draw a stats line through is POGO….a winner last time out, carrying 9st 10lb.

Of the two named I’d have to go with SUNRAY MAJOR as he’s a five year old who didn’t finish front three last time out. LANEQASH is just four and only one of that age group has pulled this off in the last five years….and he placed last time we saw him….six of the last 10 winners didn’t do that.

All the trends point to the Gosden runner, who wears cheekpieces first time.

RON – SUNRAY MAJOR 20/80

SEAN – ART DU VAL E.W

3.20pm Windsor

£24K and just five runners. I do not have a market right now but what you want to be doing here is looking for a 4-y-o, trading front two on the tissue. Seven times in the last nine years Dutching the front pair would have produced a profit and also for the last five consecutive seasons, too.

Four year olds have won three of the last five.

The current tissue suggests the winner is one of MODERN NEWS and MY OBERON. The current odds produce a profit on the Dutch and I’m all for that but I have to go with the younger horse, MODERN NEWS. A previous course and distance winner, I know he’s officially 5lb wrong with the Haggas runner but he’s back in his right grade after running well last time out in a Group 3 and I’ll take him to win this.

RON – MODERN NEWS

SEAN – MY OBERON

3.45pm The Curragh

Very interesting that they’ve decided to put TUESDAY in against the boys and the second they did that, she was made favourite to win the Irish Derby.

That tells me two things. I’m right about the Epsom Derby being bog standard, and that TUESDAY, now having reached the age of three by birth date, is going to simply keep on improving.

I wonder if Gosden considered sending EMILY UPJOHN….she would have been odds on!

In my review of the Derby I said WESTOVER might well have won with a better run in the race but still sad to see Hornby jocked off.

Aiden O’Brien has won five of the last 10 Irish Derby’s and I think his not having a colt in it tells us he’ has no decent ones of this age, this year.

It is 9/1 bar the pair that ran at Epsom, 33/1 bar the front five on the current tissue and I’ll be stunned if one of TUESDAY/WESTOVER doesn’t win it.

I think WESTOVER will win the St Leger and is a stronger stayer that TUESDAY. I didn’t think we’d see her over further than 10 furlongs after Epsom and I’ll take the colt to beat her over 12 furlongs.

RON – WESTOVER

SEAN - WESTOVER

4.20pm The Curragh

A Group 3, seven runners, five of which have yet to hit the frame this season, including the current tissue favourite MAC SWINEY, who won last years Irish 2000Gns and has won nothing since.

Thing is, his form when losing is better than the form of those that have won recently?

He gives 3lb to the second favourite, RUMBLES OF THUNDER, and yet is officially rated 15lb the better horse.

MAC SWINEY has been taking in Group 1 races around the globe in recent times and if he cannot win this little Group 3 at home then I imagine he’ll be packed off to stud!

RON – MAC SWINEY

SEAN – MAC SWINEY

OMMS

PERFECT POWER – 6/1 > 4/1 – WON 7/2
LATIN LOVER – 25/1 > 10/1 – WON 5/1
CANDLEFORD 9/1 > 13/2 – AJERO – 25/1 > 10/1 – CONTACT 10/1 > 15/2 – 767/1 TRIFECTA!

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – WESTOVER / MAC SWINEY – E.W. DOUBLE

SEAN - WESTOVER

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You do have to question the sanity of whoever suggested a firework display just before the Derby but you also have to question the form of the Derby itself, as the winner beat a horse by less than three lengths, that had been beaten seven lengths in a Listed race previously!

Lots covered including the stupidity of the bookmakers limiting a punter to £200 per month when he's absolutely Brewstered!

The text of my side of the conversation below, with Sean's selections added:

3.30pm York

Obviously, with it being Royal Ascot next week, we are very light on racing this weekend and it’s the now all too familiar case of a small field when we have good prize money up for grabs, just six running for this £34k first prize.

None of these arrives in winning form, but then four of the last five winners fitted that profile and I’m looking for a 5+ year old trading front two on the tissue because if I’d done that in the last 10 years, I would have bet the winner six of those 10 races.

Thing is, the front two on the tissue here are 4-y-o’s and only one of that age group has been successful and I feel like I’m hovering over something I usually have a bag for when walking the dogs.

I might….might….have a small 20/80 to three places BELL ROCK. His trainer is in belting form with a near 60% RTF%age figure and in the last 10 years Balding has sent three to contest this race and won it with two of them.

It’s very much a weekend for keeping your Royal Ascot powder dry but if you’ve some shrapnel sitting around, chuck a bit this horse’s way.

I know he effectively must give 10lb to the favourite and probably will not do it but hey, I cannot back a 4-y-o. BRUNCH is interesting being a previous CD winner but the 4/1 is skinny.

RON – BELL ROCK – 20/80

SEAN - MOHAAFETH

10.50pm Belmont Park (New York)

I had to laugh! Here’s me giving our racing pelters for small fields chasing big pots and here we have a six runner field racing for a first prize of £305,556

I can only find two previous running’s of this race, both of which have been won by MEAN MARY, who went off the jolly on each occasion.

Tomorrow night they go odds on ROUGIR, who last year Group 1 Prix de l’Opera when trained by Cedric Mossi. She was then sold for 3,000,000E TO RACE IN America after finishing seventh in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

Given 189 days to acclimatise she came out on May 14th and won £61k when hosing up in a Grade 3 on firm ground having looked a soft/heavy ground horse and that’s why I’d not touch odds on with a 20ft barge pole.

I’d rather have a little bet on BLEECKER STREET who runs for the same yard as the favourite. Unbeaten in six starts who knows how good she might be (maybe the trainer!), and at 9/2 is a sporting punt against the odds on shot.

RON – BLEECKER STREET – 20/80

SEAN – BLEECKER STREET – E.W.

Saturday

3.20pm Chester (handicap)

Lovely, a (currently), 14 runner handicap at Chester, where we can usually rule out half the field because of the draw bias.

Two problems….all 3-y-o’s and, I’ve only got three previous running’s of this race to work with as regards trends/stats and without a doubt it’ll be the market that tells us on the day, what is expected.

We have two previous course winners in here, ROMAN DRAGON 2-4, and OUTGATE 1-1 but, as I speak, they are both 0-4 on the ground as currently described.

For Podcast purposes only….and a bit of a giggle….I’m going to suggest a 20/80 FAR AWAY THOUGHT.

Another Balding runner, he has seen fit to send three for the three previous running’s, won it with one, placed with the other two. He won the very first running of this race with BERKSHIRE ROYAL and last season his CLASSIC LORD was beaten in a photo by one of Gosden’s….only ¾ of a length separated the first four home in that one, so expect a great finish to this one!

In 2019 his LARIAT went off favourite and also finished second so, fair to say he’s targeting this race and I’ll go 20/80 FAR AWAY THOUGHT.

RON – FAR AWAY THOUGHT – 20/80

SEAN – OUTGATE – E.W.

2.50pm Sandown

Another six runner Listed race and another all 3-y-o event.

You simply do not look outside the front three on the tissue for your winner as that stat includes the winners in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020 and last years winner giving that stat a polish when Marco Botti’s ATALIS BAY went in the 6/4 jolly. Six of the last 10 favourites have actually won this race and we’ve only seen two winners bigger than 5/1.

Clive Cox has a very strong favourite in CATTURA who is around the 5/4 mark right now. It is then 4/1 bar.

He has been contesting Group races for the majority of his short career to date and in April went off favourite to win the Group 3 Prix Sigy at Chantilly and finished second beaten less than a length.

He has to give a 5lb to horses that are all rated 10lb or worse inferior to him and the current third favourite is a handicapper.

I’ll be with the favourite and expect him to win cosy.

RON – CATURRA

SEAN - MITBAAHY

3.05pm York

It really has become the norm that you see the word Listed, or Group in the race title and you know you are getting six or fewer runners to work with and that’s again the case here I’m afraid. Better than last year though, they only had four running in this!

Run over 14 furlongs, the winner of this has only been out of the front two on the tissue twice in the last 11 running’s and so I’ll concentrate on KEMARI and MANDOOB.

The first named was a beaten favourite last time out, the other runs second time following a win-op. Quality, they ain’t!

I’m going to go with KEMARI because he’s the best horse at the weights, Buick has been summoned to York to ride it and, he’s a winner over this trip….never a bad thing!

RON – KEMARI

SEAN - MANDOOB

11-44pm Belmont Park

I was looking back at the last 10 winners of this and they really do have some funky SP returns over there….138/10, 53/10, 102/10….however, I’m also seeing that even in America, the market calls the tune more often than not and three of the last four favourites have obliged, with four of the last seven coming good so I’m going to row in with the horse I put up for the Kentucky Derby, MO DONEGAL, who is currently the 5/2 joint favourite or thereabouts.

He ran a cracker in that race to finish fifth to the horse currently third best on the tissue, RICH STRIKE. I have watched that race back a few times and I reckon the second and third placed horses riders were caught napping in the final furlong, Joel Rosario on the runner up EPICENTER thinking he had the race won, only to get caught in the last 75 yards. If that pair meet again, I’d lump on EPICENTER to beat RICH STRIKE cosy.

I think that win was a fluke and if he proves me wrong, he will not be the first to do that. I’ll go MO to reverse that form.

RON – MO DONEGAL

SEAN – RICH STRIKE E.W.

One banker for Royal Ascot week

RON - TRUESHAN – GOLD CUP….currently around 4/1, a winner of his last four starts, including a 4 ½ length beating of STRADIVARIUS in last season’s Prix Du Cadran, unbeaten in two at Ascot, the 4/1 is very nice.

SEAN – ROYAL SCOTSMAN – COVENTRY – E.W.

OMMS

LIZZIE JEAN – 14/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/2JT
YAHTZEE – 13/2 > 9/2 – WON 2/1
TRUE MASON – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 13/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – KEMARI & CATTURA – WIN DOUBLE

SEAN – ROYAL SCOTSMAN AT ROYAL ASCOT NEXT WEEK (COVENTRY STAKES)

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This week Ron and Sean look at why so many "gambles" are being attempted almost daily, discuss why Lingfield could...or couldn't....transfer their abandoned turf races to their all weather track and chat about Lester Piggott.

All the Epsom winners, too!

Friday

3.10pm Epsom

A quarter of a million pounds in prize money and just six going to post….and people ask what is wrong with horse racing today!

Horses aged five and upwards usually dominate this, although we have had a pair of four-year-olds going in, in the last four years, including last years winner, PYLEDRIVER, who will go off favourite to follow up tomorrow. Five-year-olds have actually won six of the last 10, an also five of the last seven.

The favourite has won or come second in this in nine of those last 10 running’s I work with so he’s Placepot banker material if that stat holds up.

They all go off 9st 2lb so when looking for a trends-based winner, I’m looking for a five-year-old, front two on the tissue and the only qualifier is PYLEDRIVER.

I’m not happy with Frankie being up because these days he’s not one for riding a horse out these days and if it cannot win, he drops his hands….Placepot punters, you have been warned.

I have to put this horse up though, as he fits:

RON – PYLEDRIVER

SEAN - PYLEDRIVER

4.30pm Epsom

Three year olds carrying 9st so all I have to work with are the markets.

Officially TUESDAY only becomes a 3-y-o tomorrow because she was foaled on the 3rd of June 2019 so to have achieved what she has done to date is superb but the facts are, you need to be arriving here a winner (six of the last 10 winners did, as have the last three winners, and four of the last five).

Seven of the last eight winners were also front four on the tissue and the only two qualifiers I have are:

EMILY UPJOHN
NASHWA

The head of the market indicates the strength of the two yards that have dominated this race recently. Gosden trains both of that pair, O’Brien trains the next two on the tissue and they have won the last five running’s of this race between them, O’Brien taking three of the last four.

I imagine Frankie has been put up on the one considered the best and will run with EMILY UPJOHN but Hollie Doyle has ridden NASHWA on all three racecourse appearances. She was beaten on debut, at Newmarket and for that reason I’m happy to row in with the jolly.

RON – EMILY UPJOHN

SEAN – EMILY UPJOHN

5.10pm Epsom

Lightly raced three-year-olds are not my idea of a betting medium and add into the equation that five of the seven runners have never raced on the ground as currently described, and one of the two that have finished last of four on it, you have all the ingredients of a potential punting disaster.

So much guesswork is involved in these races but hopefully trends and stats give us a clue or two.

Eight of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue, so I’m looking at one of:

OSCULA
DAWN OF LIBERATION
EVER GIVEN

Only one of the last five winners of this arrived having won last time out and, six of the last 10 winners arrived having failed to even place last time they were seen so on that score I have to row in with EVER GIVEN who is the horse with winning form on good to soft (2-3 on it).

He was beaten nine lengths in a Haydock Group 2 last time out, going off 5/1 to win that day and he’ll find Listed class more his level.

I’d certainly fancy him @ 3/1 more than I would OSCULA @ 7/4. He will want the ground to dry out a bit….it might and you should always check this out tomorrow….and the last time we aw him he was beaten 103 lengths last of 14 in Riyadh at Group 3 level. He has winning form here and the last three favourites have obliged but I’ll go with the one selected because he has his ground at the moment. If that changes, I’m out.

RON – EVER GIVEN

SEAN - OSCULA

Saturday

Epsom 2.35pm

This market has been all about BASHKIROVA since it opened, 7/2 > 7/4 before easing back to 9/4. Solid on 3/1 and second favourite is POTAPOVA, who runs in the same colours.

Everything behind them on the tissue is easy to back, Balding’s MAJESTIC GLORY for instance 11/1 > 8/1.

Not a lot in this from an age perspective, 3-y-o’s winning three, 4-y-o’s winning four and 5+ taking three but it’s the 4-y-o’s I’m most interested in because they have taken three of the last five running’s.

I’d not be interested in anything carrying less than 9st because only two winners have and the last came back in 2016.

If you are sited outside the front four on the tissue your chances are seriously hampered as the only one in the last decade to pull that off was in 2015.

If I put that lot into the blender, whizz it for a few seconds, then add a drop of the fact only one of the last 10 winners of this arrived having won last time out then I’m looking to bet one of the Cheveley Park pair.

I’ve looked back at the draw the last 10 winners have come from and nothing higher than stall eight has succeeded in the last decade so it has to be BASHKIROVA who breaks from stall two, whilst POTAPOVA has the nine berth, which would appear to be ugly!

RON – BASHKIROVA

SEAN – MRS FITHERBERT E.W.

Epsom 3.10pm

I spy, with my little eye, something beginning with the letter “M” winning this.

MODERN NEWS, MUTASAABEQ and MEGALLEN sit front three on the tissue and eight of the last 10 winners did so.

The favourite has only finished out of the front two twice so MODERN NEWS looks another Placepot banker.

Last year we had an anomaly in OH THIS IS US winning @ 18/1 and generally you would be looking to horses priced 5/1 or shorter as the only other winner bigger than that was FRENCH NAVY, who won @ 13/2 back in 2014 so on that basis it’s between MODERN NEWS and MUTASAABEQ.

I have to go with MODERN NEWS as Charlie Appleby has his still flying along, a lovely 64% RTF figure, whilst Charles Hills is struggling a tad right now, his RTF%age of 35% indicative of a yard looking for form, as opposed to being in form.

RON – MODERN NEWS

SEAN – ZAKOUSKI E.W.

Epsom 3.45pm (handicap)

I will produce Ratings for this but I think I should start by saying it’s mission impossible if recent trends hold up.

The last 10 winners of this returned 50/1, 5/1, 9/1, 16/1, 11/1, 25/1, 12/1, 33/1 and 25/1

I use the phrase, “it’s like trying to juggle soot”, a lot these days and I’m using it again here.

As much as I’m a fan of Adam West and as impressive as LIVE IN THE DREAM was last time out, I cannot have a 3-y-o. Only five have tried to win this in the last 10 years and only one hit the frame.

We want to be working with horses aged five, six and seven. We want to be working with horses outside the front six on the tissue, Only two inside that figure have won in the last 10 years.

We want a horse that finished outside the front four last time out, too. The last five winners arrived having finished 8, 9, 1, 9, 6 on their latest racecourse appearance.

So, five, six or seven, outside the front six on the tissue, having finished outside the front six last time out…and, I’ll add not carrying more than 9st as only two of the last 10 winners pulled that off.

LIVE IN THE MOMENT
THEGREATESTSHOWMAN
MID WINSTER
A SURE WELCOME
MULZIM
LIPSINK

To narrow this down to a sensible dutch I’m taking out anything drawn low. Five of the last seven winners were drawn 19, 14, 17, 16 and 13 so any of those above drawn lower than 13 gets hooked and binned here:

THEGREATESTSHOWMAN – 25/1 > 16/1
MID WINSTER – 14/1 > 20/1
A SURE WELCOME – 25/1 >33/1

Those looking for one to play a 20/80 might best use THEGREATESTSHOWMAN who has been supported since this market opened and for Podcast purposes I’ll suggest that one for my 20/80

RON – THEGREATESTSHOWMAN – 20/80

SEAN – TONE THE BARONE E.W.

Epsom 4.30pm

Now we come to the most overrated race on planet Earth.

Anyone that listened to last years Podcast, when we discussed this knows my feeling about the race and yet again last year we had another longshot winning, another winner that has only won one race since, and the last five winners of this race have now returned 40/1, 16/1, 13/2, 25/1 and 16/1.

Funny thing is, they’ve been trained by the two blokes you expect to be winning it, Aiden O’Brien and Charlie Appleby so maybe the best way in is to look for an Appleby horse trading 16/1 (those two listed above were his), and the closest to those odds right now is WALK OF STARS @ 18/1.

He still looked green as grass at Lingfield

He will be ridden by James Doyle, who has been winning the Classics this year so I’ll have a joke sized 20/80 for Podcast purposes.

One winking at me is MASEKELA. Balding’s horse ran NATIVE TRAIL to a short head as a juvenile and the 80/1 is fine for a place play, if you think this massive step up in trip is what he wants. His form at shorter makes him anything but an 80/1 shot!

None of the O’Brien runners has a jockey allocated yet but I’ll be surprised if STONE AGE hasn’t got Moore’s backside in the saddle.

RON – WALK OF STARS & MASEKELA – 2 X 20/80’s to minute stakes!

SEAN – STONE AGE

OMMS

CAPE HELLES – 50/1 > 16/1 – WON 17/2
PRIORS DELL – 20/1 > 10/1 – WON 10/1
LIAMARTY DREAMS – 25/1 > 12/1 – WON 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – BASHRIKOVA & MODERN NEWS (DOUBLE) SEAN – MRS FITZHERBERT E.W.

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Shame on the bookmaker who overexposed himself and opted not to honour the bet struck and, shame on the people at Windsor who thought they could fleece spectators for an extra £7 each so that they could see the horses before the race but had that bright idea blow up in their faces!

We've looked at the racing this week and below you have the text of my Podcast ramblings, with Sean's selections introduced.

Best of luck this weekend!

1.35pm Newbury

Nine 3-y-o’s, all carrying 9st 2lb and if we’ve learned anything in the first two weeks of the core season it’s not to trust explicitly, juvenile form.

So we basically bet blind in such races and hope the trends or markets point us in the direction of the winners.

Given the age group/weight situation here all I can do, working as I do, is trust the market trends hold up. If they do, I’m looking for a horses in the front two on the tissue which, right now, would be:

TIBER FLOW
EHRAZ

The first named trades favourite and arrives having had four runs, all on the sand and I have not got a baldy clue as to whether or not he’ll handle turf as well as an all weather surface.

I’d be happy dutching this pair but if I had to play one solo it would have to be EHRAZ. Consistent, placed in three of his four career starts to date, winning at Ascot over this trip last July and on seasonal debut ran a decent enough race in a Group 3, when beaten by the horse that ran second in last years Norfolk Stakes, GO BEARS GO.

Never in a month o f Sundays would this be a race I’d get heavily involved in but I’ll dutch that pair to make a profit….if one of them wins it.

RON – DUTCH - TIBER FLOW/EHRAZ

SEAN – CADAMOSTO E.W.

1.50pm Newmarket

Exactly the same scenario here but just seven go to post and we’ve a short priced favourite in OTTOMAN FLEET, who went off a short priced favourite to beat a stable companion on debut….but didn’t.

The winner of that race was used as the hare for WALK OF STARS last weekend, when being ridden like a quarter horse in the Derby Trial at Lingfield. It didn’t work because the favourite got beaten by the Coolmore runner UNITED NATIONS.

If trends run as usual then OTTOMAN FLEET wins as the favourite has won this race for the last four years on the trot, and in seven of the last 10.

I couldn’t back against it but neither would I lump on.

RON – OTTOMAN FLEET

SEAN – GROUNDBREAKER

2.10pm Newbury

Group 3, nearly £57k to the winner and just six going to post. At least it is an all aged competition but you wouldn’t want to be betting against a four or five year old winning it (not least because five of the six are aged four or five), as eight of the last 10 winners were of those ages and that includes the last six winners, too.

Favourites have won five of the last six running’s of this, the last three going off odds on….we wont have an odds on shot here tomorrow!

You will need to be working with the front pair on the tissue again because trends tell me so. They have taken seven of the last 10 renewals of this race and so again I’d suggest dutching:

ESHAADA
FOXES TALES

Looking for a solo play I’d have to suggest FOXES TALES. He arrives having raced already and the last four winners all arrived having made seasonal debut.

The race is actually as tight as a drum and any of the six could win it but I’ll go with FOXES TALES.

RON – FOXES TALES

SEAN - ILARAAB

2.45pm Newbury

I smiled when you said you had included a handicap, rubber my hands, got prepped up…then grimaced….it’s an all 3-y-o affair and these races are like walking across a minefield without a map!

Most have only been seen three times, now have an official mark, and will be allowed to run on merit, as opposed to just going for three consecutive days out.

So what do trends make of it because Ratings would simply be blown out of the water here.

First, weight ranges. In the nine times this has been run, we’ve seen horses winning carrying 8st 2lb to 9st 7lb but if I was going to point at a dominant-ish range I’d say 8st 10lb to 9st 5lb and, from a market perspective, I’d want nothing trading longer than 8/1 as only a pair of winners were priced bigger.

I’m also looking for a horse that won or placed last time out as six of those last nine winners had done so, and arriving not having had more than three runs because three of the last four winners fit that criteria.

That gives me two to look at:

ISRAAR
SURREY MIST

At 7/2 and 9/2 respectively as I speak, that’s a dutch worth playing but for those liking a 20/80 then you run with ISRAR who will most likely go off favourite and with four of the last eight of those winning and seven of the nine winning or placing, you’d be confident of making a profit off the place play.

RON – ISRAAR – 20/80

SEAN – LA PUGLA E.W.

3.20pm Newbury

The Lockinge and I imagine their will be very long faces off the track as well as on it, if BAAEED is beaten.

He has looked a superstar since we first clapped eyes on him and he beat last years winner of this in the QEII Stakes in October, that being the only defeat suffered by PALACE PIER in 2021.

Six of the last nine favourites have won this race, including three of the last four and I cannot see any of these even getting close enough to breath on BAAEED.

He has to give 3lb to the current second favourite MOTHER EARTH and is rated 11lb her superior, he races off level weights with the third favourite, REAL WORLD, and is officially 7lb better than that one.

BAAEED wins it if he turns out with a leg in each corner.

RON – BAAEED

SEAN - BAAEED

4.25pm Navan

Six three year olds going over a marathon trip of 13 furlongs and the most likely favourite, ARBUTUS, a winner of his only race to date….which was over course and distance.

They are all extremely lightly raced and as such trying to work this out is akin to chucking dice up a craps table and hoping for snake eyes but for Podcast purposes, I’ll go with the Aiden O’Brien trained CD winner ARBUTUS.

RON – ARBUTUS

SEAN – CELADOR E.W.

4.30pm Newbury

It’s simply that time of year when the Listed races and better are contested by three year olds and you and I are groping in the dark, hoping we don’t pick up something nasty and guessing right!

Seven three year olds head to post here and we’ve three clear on the tissue, NASHWA, who is around 15/8, BOUQUET at something like 5/2, and MUKADDAMAH 7/2….it’s then 10/1 bar so, with six of the last eight running’s going to horses in the first two on the tissue, it’s most likely our winner is one of NASHWA, or BOUQUET.

Both are trained by Gosden, who has sent three for this previously and only managed to get one in the frame.

They have Frankie on board the second favourite strangely enough with Hollie Doyle on NASHWA. She has though, ridden this horse in both its races so far and bolted in by six lengths on it at Haydock back in April.

The horse has gone off favourite both times, will do so again tomorrow, and I’m thinking Hollie has another 10% coming her way.

RON – NASHWA

SEAN - NASHWA

OMMS

KIHAVAH – 5/1 > 10/3 – WON 7/2
BRANDY MCQUEEN – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 6/1
CANDY KITCHEN – 20/1 > 7/1 – WON 9/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – ISRAAR, BAAEED, NASHWA – TREBLE

SEAN - LA PUGLA E.W.

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This week Ron and Sean natter about racecourse fights and the crazy idea of beer vending machines, they look at whether the NH season goes on to long and to the detriment of good horses, then discuss eight races being run at Newmarket tomorrow and Saturday, with the 2000Gns the highlight.

Ron nailed a lovely winner of this in KAMEKO two years ago....can he repeat the dose?

Ron's side of the conversation in text form, with Sean's selections added:

Friday

Newmarket 1.50pm

Only four runners and that will make for a false pace. Horses will over race early and have nothing left for when the race starts.

Three years olds, all carrying 9st and it’s NATIONS PRIDE I’d be punting.

He currently trades the even money favourite and we’ve had five of the last 10 winners going off favourite.

He also won last time out, as did SUBASTAR, who is very highly rated by his trainer Roger Varian. He took this race in 2019 with a once raced horse and I was so tempted to put this one up but you look at Appleby’s RTF %AGE figure right now – 87% - which is stunning….and I can only suggest a straight win punt, with an Exacta the two named.

RON – NATIONS PRIDE (Exacta with SUBASTAR)

SEAN - SUBASTAR

Newmarket 2.25pm

This feels like a weak renewal of this race

Just five going to post here and another all three year old event, and another Appleby favourite that, if the trends holds up, should be winning, because the last five favourites have won this, and six of the last nine.

NOBLE TRUTH is currently around the 11/8 mark but Appleby has saddled three for this previously and only placed with one of them.

Hannon is the trainer to follow here and he sends GUBBASS, currently second favourite @ 5/2.

Six horses have gone from that yard to contest this race, they’ve won two, placed with another. If GUBBASS was trading favourite I’d be all excited and I’m not going to sound at all clever suggesting one of them will win tomorrow. I’ll suggest a reverse CSF and we’ll see what happens.

RON – Reverse CSF – NOBLE TRUTH/GUBBASS

SEAN - RIBHY

Goodwood 3.15pm

Four year olds have absolutely owned this in recent years. They have won the last five and seven of the last nine running’s so that’s what I’m working with. That only rules out two, but it rules them out which is a help of sorts.

Market position is where I go next because they all carry 9st and with five of the last nine winners (and the last three), all in the front two on the tissue, I’m thinking one of SAVE A FOREST or BARTAZELLA wins it.

I have to row in with SAVE A FOREST simply because Varian’s record with runners in this race is vastly superior to that of Haggas, who trains BARTAZELLA.

Haggas has sent four for this race in previous years, placed with three of them.

Varian has sent two, won with one, placed with the other.

SAVE A FOREST for me.

RON – SAVE A FOREST

SEAN - BARTAZELLA

Newmarket 3.35pm

Well I never….another Appleby trained favourite. I did say to you last week that when we are doing Podcasts, I’ll just simply say whatever Godolphin has entered will be my selection because they are in blindingly good form this season

It’s 4/9 YIBIR, who should have won the Dubai Sheema Classic in March, did win the Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar last November and if form means anything, that 4/9 is pure gold.

No point looking for anything to beat him here. He’s the better horse on official ratings by nearly a stone and will win.

RON – YIBIR

SEAN - YIBIR

Saturday

Newmarket 1.15pm

I’d love to know what’s going on. Only seven runners here and the last five running’s have seen no field smaller than 12 runners, and in 2017 we had 17 going to post.

I’m sure it’s a sign we have far to much racing.

From a trends angle, I can only suggest FLOTUS as my selection here. I’m not liking the fact the horse makes seasonal debut but she’s a 3-y-o and they have won the last four running’s, and six of the last nine. She’s the only runner of that age grouping and if she trades front two on the tissue, then a straight win punt will be the advice.

She ran a belter to finish a length second to TENEBRISM in last years Cheveley Park and that filly is currently 11/4 to win the 1000Gns on Sunday.

RON – FLOTUS

SEAN - FLOTUS

Goodwood 2.40pm

Well I never did….a race the Boys In Blue have nothing entered!

Trends say a three or four year old wins it and that trend will stay strong as nothing older than four turns out.

I’m really liking the 3-y-o’s stats….only seven have tried to win this, three have pulled it off and two of the last three winners were of that age group.

Four of the last five winners were located front two on the tissue and right now they are the four year old and favourite, PRIMO BACIO, and the three year old ZANBAQ.

I’m going with ZANBAQ, trained by Roger Varian and a winner of her only race to date.

That was over seven furlongs on an all weather track and Varian reckons she’ll be suited by a mile this term.

She cost £450,000 as a yearling and they’ll want some of that back, and some Black type, too.

ZANBAQ for me.

RON – ZANBAQ

SEAN – BASHKIROVA E.W.

Newmarket 3.00pm

I advised the members recently of a huge punt going on regarding TWILIGHT CALLS who went in @ 6/5 over course and distance April 14th and I can tell you now, they are piling in again….opened 9/2, now 5/2 and clear favourite to win this on Saturday.

Trends tell me:

You need to be a four year old….tick
You need to be carrying 9st+….tick
You need to be front three on the tissue (favourites have won four and placed in two of the last 10 running’s)….tick
You need to be arriving having won or placed last time out as seven of the last 10 winners did so….tick

TWILIGHT CALLS wins if trends are right and if the market is right.

RON – TWILIGHT CALLS

SEAN – TWILIGHT CALLS

Newmarket 3.40pm

The 2000Gns and recently a graveyard for the fancied runners as the last two winners went in priced 10/1 and 16/1.

As we know, it’ll be won by a three year old carrying 9st exactly but that horse will be (based on the last 10 years trends), first two on the tissue, and arriving having won last time out. Even those big priced winners arrived with a 1 next to their names.

The two qualifiers are trained by Appleby (he could have a stunning few days!), but he has only had three placed horses from eight previous entrants.

It does look his year though however, I’m going for COROEBUS, who I remember was smashed off the boards on debut, won easily, then looked to be going to win very easily second time out, but ran green as grass, getting collared close home but the horse that then finished last of eight to LUXEMBOURG in the Futurity.

Strict formlines therefore suggest LUXEMBOURG should see off my selection and the fact he’s unbeaten, trained by Aiden O’Brien, who has won five of the last 10 of these races, and has been supported 6/1 > 9/2 in recent days suggests I’ve banged my head in picking the Appleby second string but I remember watching that race he got beat in and thinking what a horse he looked.

COROEBUS subsequently bolted up in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes and I believe he’s a rock solid 20/80.

RON – COROEBUS 20/80

SEAN – NATIVE TRAIL

OMMS

3 – WANEES – 7/1 > 11/2 – WON 10/3

2 – LIVE IN THE DREAM – 16/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2

1 – MUCUNA – 50/1 > 12/1 – WON 16/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON - TWILIGHT CALLS (Newmarket 3-00, Saturday)

SEAN - FLOTUS & NATIVE TRAIL - WIN DOUBLE

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For our hard of hearing members this is the text of Ron's side of the Podcast discussion, with Sean's selections added to each race!

DONCASTER 1-50

Four year olds have been dominant in this in recent years, four of the last six winners came from that age group and five of the last eight. I’d certainly not want anything older than six as there has only been one winner older, that was PERFECT PASTURE, who won this in 2018 and went off joint favourite to do so.

Nothing carries less than 9st so weight ranges are redundant but a position front three on the handicap is not a bad things as five of the last eight winners were so, I’d be with one of GARRUS or DILIGENT HARRY in this.

The first named is trained by Charles Hills, who won this last year with ROYAL COMMANDO. He has sent three for this, won with that one and placed with another so, he’s clearly targeting it.

Kevin Ryan also gets his ready for it. He has sent seven for this, placed with six so BIELSA has to be interesting for place only bettors. He’s a seven year old so fails by virtue of age range.

Clive Cox trains DILIGENT HARRY and he too gets his primed….five previous entries, two of which have placed.

For Podcast purposes I’m putting up DILIGENT HARRY 20/80. A four year old, carrying 9st 8lb…which the last three winners have done, and if he finishes first two, a profit made.

RON – DILIGENT HARRY – 20/80

SEAN – MONDAMEJ – E.W

DONCASTER 3-00

Only four runners in a race that has seen five year olds taking the last four running’s and five of the last seven. The only five year old in here is BOOSALA. He represents William Haggas, who has only sent two for it previously, one won, one placed.

One of our members religiously follows my 20 To Follow lists and I’d put this in one of those back in October 2020. Never made a racecourse that year but he kept the faith and was rewarded with a 22/1 winner at Doncaster in November last year.

Roger Varian trains ROYAL CHAMPION, and he has sent five for this in recent years, won with three, placed with one. His three winners though all went off odds on to take this and this horse is currently second favourite @ 10/3.

Hannon produced KOOL COMPANY to win this in 2017 and his CHINDIT is currently around 4/6 to give him his second winner in the five years.

I do not like small field races because you get a false pace. I hate backing odds on shots. It’s a no bet race for me under normal circumstances but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest the Varian horse with no confidence whatsoever.

RON – ROYAL CHAMPION

SEAN - CHINDIT

DONCASTER 3-35 (THE LINCOLN)

Once upon a time, this was impossible to solve. Then, the Newmarket lads decided they could ready a Group horse that been lightly raced at three ready to take a big pot home and the last five winners have been four year olds, four of those venturing up from Suffolk.

The last three have also gone in at 5/1, 5/2f and 9/2 and, the last three winners have been front two on the tissue.

So, all we need to do here is look for horses trading 5/1 or shorter, trained in Newmarket and they are:

MODERN NEWS
MUJTABA
SALEYMM

Last year we saw the Gosden’s employ the services of an unknown 7lb claimer to ride HAQEEQY, and he looked an awesome jockey….but then blotted his copybook (we’ll leave that there!), and I’m thinking we may be about to see another pattern emerging as Charlie Appleby has booked Harry Davies, a 5lb claimer, to ride his MODERN NEWS.

A previous course winner, he was recently given a spin over in a Dubai Listed race, came home in third and was shipped back to blighty for this.

Haggas has also booked a claimer for his runner, MUJTABA, who arrives unbeaten and could be anything.

If I was betting here I’d dutch that trio but as we want a definitive selection I’m putting up MODERN NEWS. No confidence, just a sensible-ish selection based on recent trends.

RON – MODERN NEWS

SEAN - DARKNESS

CURRAGH 3-41

A typical Irish minefield.

We have winners of this, in the last seven years priced 100/1, 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1, with a pair of 8/1 shots in there too.

Right now we have last season’s Falmouth Stakes runner up trading at around 4/7 and the last time we saw MOTHER EARTH she was running home a near two length fourth in the Hong Kong Mile back in December.

None of these has won on the going as currently described and she is just 2-12 at the trip….and 0-3 at the track.

The formbook suggests she’s the winner but that’s two big negatives so that price is as attractive as the Elephant Man.

EMPHATIC ANSWER is 0-1 ground, 2-5 trip and 1-1 over course and distance. She won on seasonal debut last year, in her five races on turf to date she has won two, placed in three and I’d rather go 20/80 @ 13/2 that one, than take 4/7 about a filly that for all her form looks great, has only won three of her 18 races and placed in 11.

I’ll go 20/80 EMPHATIC ANSWER.

RON – EMPHATIC ANSWER – 20/80

SEAN - MOTHER EARTH

KEMPTON 2-05

The most significant stat here is that the market is pointing me towards. Seven of the last nine favourites have won this and in that period of time, the winner has never been outside the front three on the tissue so if that holds up, the winner is one of:

FANCY MAN
FELIX
FATHER OF JAZZ

So the winner will start with the letter “F”

Three of the last four winners arrived having made seasonal debut so that rules out the Varian runner, FATHER OF JAZZ.

Four year olds have a decent enough record in this, they won it three times on the trot between 2013 & 2015 but in the last five years they have won just one, the other four going to horses aged five (2), and six (2).

Only one winner in the last nine years has carried more than 9st to victory and so, by the magic of stats and trends, I’m left with FELIX as my most likely winner.

A previous course and distance winner he is 1-1 surface, 1-1 track and 3-12 trip. The other pair have yet to race on the Kempton all weather.

I’m with FELIX.

RON – FELIX – 20/80

SEAN - FELIX

MEYDAN 1-35

Mission impossible for me but we’ll give it a shot. Overseas racing is very much Sean’s domain and I’m working with trainers and jockey’s I’ve heard of but know diddly about.

From an age group perspective, I’ve no clues, horses aged 7, 7, 6, 5, 8, 9, 5, 6, 5, 8 have won this in recent times so maybe run with horses aged either five, or six?

Nine of the last 10 winners all carried more than 9st so go there too?

Market position….in the last five running’s we’ve seen horses winning at 10/1, 12/1 and 14/1 last year, but the two years previous to that Charlie Appleby won with horses priced 11/4 and 4/6.

Let’s say, nothing priced bigger than 14/1.

MAN OF PROMISE
CASA CREED

They are the only two that fit. You can dutch to turn a profit but the first named is trained by Appleby.

The last three running’s of this have been ridden by UK based jockeys and if trends/stats work out there, the winner is MAN OF PROMISE.

RON – MAN OF PROMISE

SEAN – MAN OF PROMISE

MEYDAN 2-45

We had a 40/1 winner of this last season. Oh joy.

Age groupings I’d suggest are best would be those aged five, six or seven….they have won eight of the last 10 and seven of the last eight.

Again, nothing carrying less than 9st (none of the last 10 winners carried less), and whulst we had that 40/1 winner, that was an anomaly and I’m seeing that none of the other nine winners went off at a bigger than 9/1, and there was only one of those bigger than 13/2 so I’m looking for a five, six or seven year old, carrying 9st or more and trading 13/2 or shorter.

No definitive qualifier but for Podcast purposes I’ll put up MERAAS and RED LE ZELE. The first named is a five year old (favoured as they’ve won two of the last three running’s), around 8/1 and a course and distance winner, whilst the second named ran well in this last year when ridden by Ryan Moore, finishing second.

The current favourite, DR SCHIVEL, came as close as you can get to winning at the Breeders Cup last and on his final outing last season he had a virus so you can tear that form up.

I’ll suggest a 20/80 MERAAS simply because he fits and is a previous course and distance winner.

RON – MERAAS

SEAN – DR SCHIVEL

MEYDAN 3-20

LORD NORTH won this last season and is one of my favourite horses in training. I’m also a fan of LORD GLITTERS, who did us a massive Podcast turn last year winning at a monster price in Bahrain.

I think LORD NORTH will have this set up for him. He’ll travel great, be coming from off what will probably be a very fast pace as PANTHALASSA goes off like stink (that will also suit LORD GLITTERS), and I just remember how brilliant the Gosden horse was in this race last year when he bolted up by three lengths.

I’ll forgive him that defeat at Lingfield behind ALENQUER at Linfield in February because no way would he have been fully wound up for that £62k first prize to the winner race, when this £2.25m prize was just around the corner.

I’ll back him to repeat the dose.

RON – LORD NORTH

SEAN – SAFFRON BEACH

MEYDAN 3-55

Look no further than the four and five year olds here. Nothing older has won this since ST NICHOLAS ABBEY back in 2013 and also, don’t got looking a shock result. It’s one of those races in which the cream always rises to the top. Only one winner bigger than 5/1 in the last 10 years and that was the 7/1 shot DOLNIYA in 2015.

The winner will also carry either 8st 13lb or 9st dead as the last five have and, eight of the last 10 so this should be relatively easy to solve.

The three qualifiers (and a very sensible dutch), are:

YIBIR
SHAHRYAR
AUTHORITY

Age, weight and current tissue price spot on. The second named is probably the best of the Japanese runners but I don’t see why he should reverse form with AUTHORITY, on their run in the Japan Cup, where they finished second and third to CONTRAIL.

AUTHORITY gave SHAHRYAR 5lb and beat him nearly two lengths and tomorrow only has to give that horse 1lb.

AUTHORITY has since come out and won again and yet, I can get 6/1 about him, just 9/2 for SHARYAR?

GLORY VASE is a very decent horse but fails the age grouping stats, and all ALENQUER has done since this market opened is drift 8/1 > 10/1

Plain fact is, this prize has come back to blighty every year for the last five years and I’m with YIBIR, the winner of last season’s Breeders Cup Turf. Now a winner of 50% of his 12 runs on turf, and improving with racing, he’ll take a bit of beating here if my trends are telling me the truth.

RON – YIBIR

SEAN – AUTHORITY E.W

MEYDAN 4-30

The runes say, if Saaed Bin Suroor doesn’t win it, then the American horses do and as Bin Suroor’s only runner is around the 25/1 mark right now, and we have four American runners sitting top of the tissue, the front pair of LIFE IS GOOD and HOT ROD CHARLIE being superstars, trade 8/11 and 10/3, it’s then 12/1 bar the two.

LIFE IS GOOD….is good….very good. He won the Breeders Cup Mile last year, has then beaten another American Breeders Cup winner, KNICKS GO, easily, over nine furlongs, and it’s really just a case of him getting this extra furlong.

I put up HOT ROD CHARLIE for the Kentucky Derby in a Podcast last April and he ran a blinder to come second. His problem is, he doesn’t win as often as he should and his record of four wins from 14 career starts suggests he might just like to see one in front of him. He was beaten at 1/5 at San Antonio in December and on a formline with KNICKS GO, has no chance with the favourite.

I doubt any of the others will be anything like good enough to beat LIFE IS GOOD and he’d be a confident bet here.

RON – LIFE IS GOOD

SEAN – LIFE IS GOOD

OMMS

GRIS MAJEUR – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 10/1
DEEPER BLUE – 6/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/2F
KANNAPOLI – 7/1 > 3/1 – WON 11/8

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – LORD NORTH – DUBAI TURF

SEAN – SAFFRON BEACH & AUTHORITY E.W DOUBLE.

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Days three and four discussed, loads of lovely stats and trends to digest, selections to mull over and a pair of e.w accas to consider.

Each race on the website has the Podcast text applied for our hard of hearing members.

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Just plain, simple racing only chat this week as Ron and Sean look to find us some weekend winners ahead of Cheltenham.

Below you have a race in the text not mentioned in the Podcast as it's a handicap that Ron will be disecting on Saturday, with a view to finding you a Cheltenham winner, in addtion to the winner of that race below.

FRIDAY

DUNDALK 8-00

Only six previous running’s of this but it’s already belonging to the O’Brien’s. Aiden won the first three, Joseph has won the last two and in 2019 Mick Halford broke the run, beating Aiden O’Brien’s runner into second place.

My starting point therefore is anything trained by an O’Brien

ABSOLUTE RULER – Donnacha O’Brien
IN ECSTACY – Joseph O’Brien

Both are course and distance winners so if they have trained on….always the issue backing 3-y-o’s on seasonal debut, no matter how good they were at two years of age….then they’ll be competitive.

The current favourite is JUNCTURE, trained by Ger Lyons who has never raced on this surface, never over this trip and, never at this track.

You do not, if trends continue as they have done, want anything to do with a horse trading bigger than 11/4 as five winners were priced short.

Only two favourites have won this (two of Aiden’s three), and if I ever have a bet on Irish all weather racing all I could do would be to work with trends/stats and here it would have to be ABSOLUTE RULER.

Currently the second favourite at around 5/2 he’d never be a confident selection but he’s my Podcast selection.

Ron – ABSOLUTE RULER

Sean – IN ECSTACY

SATURDAY

KELSO 1-32

This will be won by a five or six year old, carrying more than 11st, sitting front two on the tissue and arriving having won last time out.

Seven of the nine running’s have gone to those age groups, eight of the nine to horses carrying more than 11st and eight of the nine to horses trading front two on the tissue, at the off. Those last three words are the most important, as you found out last week when looking at the race WIN MY WINGS won for Christian Williams that my Profiling found, but that you had eliminated when doing the same thing earlier. It was 20/1 when the betting opened, it won @ 11/2F.

Had I Profiled that race 24 hours earlier, I’d have got it wrong. Everything these days is dictated by the markets.

The two heading the market as I type are:

RICHMOND LAKE
NORTH LODGE

The last winner to take this carrying 11st 8lb was CLEVER COOKIE in 2014 so I’ll run with RICHMOND LAKE.

His three length second to JONBON at Haydock is top quality form and I think he’ll take a bit of beating here.

Ron – RICHMOND LAKE

Sean - SHOLOKJACK

KELSO 2-40

Seven going to post here and I’ve only got eight previous running’s to work with so trends are definitely suspect.

Six of the eight winners have been aged nine or older….five of them nine year olds.

If the weight trends keep up to speed I want nothing on my betting slip carrying more than 11st 2lb. Five of the last seven winners carried 10st 12lb.

That would rule out NUTS WELL and WINDSOR AVENUE. The rest are all on 11st dead.

The last six winners have sat front three on the tissue and whatever they send of favourite should run a cracker, if it completes. Their finishing positions to date read U, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 2 so Placepot banker material if nothing else.

Right now I’m looking at one of:

ESPOIR DE ROMAY
ITCHY FEET

Since this market opened I’ve seen plenty of support for ESPOIR DE ROMAY and more gentle support for ITCHY FEET but one of them wins it and off level weights, with the favourite officially 9lb better than ITCHY FEET, I’m with ESPOIR DE ROMAY

Ron – ESPOIR DE ROMAY

Sean – ESPOIR DE ROMAY

KELSO 3-15

This is the race I’ve been looking forward to working with this weekend. That’s because of the £100k bonus attached to it if the winner goes on to win at Cheltenham.

Horse with Cheltenham entries are:

METIER
FAIVOIR
SAINT D’OROUX
CORMIER
BALKO SAINT
ALQAMAR
SEVERANCE
THEREISNODOUBT

Last year the Irish lads pulled it off with THE SHUNTER and as I mentioned the other day, the only Irish trained runner here, entered up for Cheltenham, is SAINT D’OROUX.

His current price of 12/1 doesn’t fit the trends here. But then, if you had read the runes this early last year, you would not have been on the plunge horse, THE SHUNTER, who was backed into 5/2 and favourite. He proved to be a graded horses in a handicap, which is how these punts are landed.

In 2-19 Nicky Henderson came close to pulling it off with WE HAVE A DREAM. He won this race by six lengths, before running second in the County Hurdle.

This year he saddles only BUVEUR D’AIR, who has no Cheltenham entries this time around.

On Saturday I’ll be watching the markets like a hawk and let you know my thoughts on a Cheltenham ante-post punt before this race goes off.

LINGFIELD 4-19

Another all-weather race that has, in the past, been farmed by William Haggas. He has taken four of the last eight renewals of this, three on the bounce between 2017-2019 inclusive. In the last 10 years he has sent six horses for this race, won with the four, placed with another so, he gets them ready for it.

His last three winners all arrived here making seasonal debut and the last four winners of this all did that.

He saddles CANONIZED, who was given a pipe opener on February 23rd, where he finished second.

The market tends are weird here. Five winners have gone off favourite, four winners went off fifth favourite. The favourite has placed first three in eight of the last 10 running’s so, another that should give you a run for your money, whatever it is.

It’s not a race I could ever get involved in financially as they are all 3-y-o’s, two have only raced twice, two have only been seen four times and EL CABALLO, who beat CANONIZED in February, makes just his fifth racecourse appearance.

A no bet race for me personally but for Podcast purposes and the trainers record in this race, I’ll put up CANONIZED 20/80

Ron- CANONIZED - 20/80

Sean – EL CABALLO

NAVAN 3-58

Only six runners again I’m afraid. The nine previous running’s have seen the race go to horses aged six of seven on seven occasions, including the five running’s, too.

All bar the winner of last years race have carried 11st 1lb or more, SCARLET AND DOVE went in with 10st 10lb last year but was well backed to do that.

We had a 25/1 winner in 2015 but nothing bigger than 4/1 in the two races before that, nor in the five since. If something bigger than 7/2 wins it, it’s an anomaly.

Only one runner here has previous winning form on the going as currently described, FANCY FOUNDATIONS. None has previous course winning form, VELVET ELVIS already 0-3 here.

It’s again not a race I’ll have a bet in myself but the Mullins trained six year old GENTLEMAN DE MEE appeals for Podcast purposes. Right age, right weight, trainer won the race in 2016 with a six year old and he’d be as good a 20/80 as any.

Ron – GENTLEMAN DE MEE

Sean – STAND OFF

DONCASTER 2-20

We saw a 40/1 winner of this last year but that was the only winner priced bigger than 4/1 in the history of the race.

Five and six year olds are the horses we need onside, they have won seven of the eight previous running’s but there is no point me chatting about weight ranges as they all carry 11st 1lb so what we need to be doing here is looking for a horse aged five or six, front two on the tissue and then pray a 40/1 shot doesn’t come along again because if it does, we’ve all lost money here.

Funny thing is, the only horse ruled out by virtue of age is STARLYTE, who is trained by the bloke that won with the 40/1 shot last year!

GET A TONIC has been put in at around 4/7 and if he lands the odds, he’ll be the second odds on shot in three years to do so.

All of her wins to date have come in double figure field sizes so is she put off by small field? I’ve seen that plenty of times before.

She is officially 9lb better than anything else here but that stat puts me off playing odds on even if I do think she should win it.

Ron – GET A TONIC

Sean – SO SAID I

MEYDAN 11-35

Charlie Appleby has taken the last four running’s of this race and saddles recent course and distance winner GLOBAL STORM. Currently second favourite behind HUKUM, who is making seasonal debut having been missing for 154 days.

Five of the last seven favourites have won this and I expect one of that pair to win this on Saturday morning.

Given the Appleby stats, and the fact Buick rides and he has ridden three of the last four winners, I’ll go 20/80 GLOBAL STORM

Ron – GLOBAL STORM – 20/80

Sean - HUKUM

MEYDAN 1-55

My knowledge of racing over there is virtually nil but I’ve seen something here that interests me statistically.

The same trainer jockey combination of Bin Ghadayer/ Barzalona has taken this three times in the last five years, and they send the current favourite to post, HYPOTHETICAL, who used to be trained by John Gosden, who only managed to get an all weather race out of him, on juvenile debut.

Since being sent to the desert and running on fast all weather tracks in Meydan, his form figures read 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 12, 1 so with those stats all I have, I’ll say go 20/80 HYPOTHETICAL, then cross everything.

Ron – HYPOTHETICAL – 20/80

Sean – AVANT GARDE – E.W.

MEYDAN 3-30

LORD GLITTERS tries to follow up his win in this race last year and the layers have him around 9/4 favourite to olige and history tells us going off favourite, or as near favourite as not, is a huge plus. Seven of the last eight winners went off 4/1 or shorter and three of the last six favourite went past the post first.

I’d love to tell you I’ve worked on sorting out any potential draw bias here, or any bias come to that, but I only ever look at racing from overseas when Sean pops them in the Podcast list but I’ve seen enough to suggest that if trends continue to play a part, then LORD GLITTERS, BARNEY ROY and ZAKOUSKI will most likely provide you with the winner.

All three are course and distance winners, priced right but if I had to nail my colours to the mast of just one, it would be ZAKOUSKI.

He is the youngest of the trio mentioned and we’ve had only two winners aged older than six in the last 10 years so purely for Podcast purposes, ZAKOUSKI for me.

Ron – ZAKOUSKI – 20/80

Sean – ZAKOUSKI

OMMS 3-2-1

SOME DETAIL – 12/1 > 4/1 – WON @ 9/4F
NOVUS ADITUS – 40/1 > 14/1 – WON @14/1
STORM HILL – 100/1 > 40/1 – WON @ 40/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

Ron – Kelso double – RICHMOND PARK – ESPOIR DE ROMAY

Sean – SHOLOCKJACK and AVANTE GARDE

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Ron and Sean take a look at the first 14 races of the Cheltenham Festival and indicate those horses that might be competitive, or might not, as the case may be, then finish by putting up a four horse acca each across the first two days.

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It isn't the best racing this weekend and who knows what the weather is going to do to it but Ron and Sean have a had a good old natter about Tiger Roll, Sir Mark Todd, Ascot having a fleet of Porsche but only one going stick and the potential superstar that is the colt by Kingman out of Enable....how good could that horse be?

Ron's side of the racing conversation below, for those hard of hearing, with Sean's selections introduced.

Saturday

1.30pm Haydock

Only six going to post and a sign that all is not well at the Paul Nicholl’s yard is that he’s not represented here. He has saddled the last three winners and won the race with four of the five he has sent for it, in the last decade.

I can only work with trends here as I have no tissue and whilst stating the obvious you need to be a 4-y-o, carrying 11st 6lb and arriving having won last time out.

Seven of the last 10 winners had won before coming for this….and I’m also seeing four of the last five did so, too.

That means we look to one of COLLINGHAM or PORTICELLO.

Neither has won on the ground they’ll face on Saturday, which is currently described as heavy so who knows how they cope with it.

The winner of this has been front two on the tissue in seven of the last 10 running’s, too so whilst I’ll not be betting here, if you wish to get involved, look to the shortest priced of that pair, and pray!

RON – PORTICELLO

SEAN - PORTICELLO

2.05pm Haydock

Hughie Morrison won this last year with THIRD WIND, who is one of the six running here for a lovely first prize of £34k!

The horse is 1-2 on the ground, 1-8 at the trip and 1-2 at Haydock and he has won five and placed in three of his 13 runs over hurdles so, expect another big run.

Warren Greatrex does well with his runners in this. He has saddled five in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with two so EMITOM (won this is 2020), could well outrun his odds of 10/1 and arrives with a very similar profile to THIRD WIND 1-2 ground, 1-7 trip and 1-2 track.

Favourites have a horrible time in this, just one winner in the last decade but you do not want to look outside the front four for your winner, as only one of those 10 were so, it’s one of MOLLY OLLYS WISHES, THIRD WIND or TOP VILLE BEN.

I’ve no preferred age grouping but want to rule out horses carrying more than 11st 6lb, as only one of the last 10 has pulled that off.

Of that trio named I must rule out last years as he’s got 11st 10lb on Saturday winner so if you fancy a two horse dutch the remaining pair, be my guest.

Looking at the odds of the pair I’m working with, the market says being priced bigger than 7/1 is a negative and as TOP VILLE BEN is around 15/2 right now and MOLLY OLLYS WISHES is 5/2, the Skelton horse does it for me. She is unbeaten at this trip, too.

RON – MOLLY OLLYS WISHES

SEAN – THOMAS DARBY

3.50pm Haydock

None of the seven turning out has winning form on heavy ground, three have never attempted ground, trip or track and this has all the appeal of chucking dice up a table!

Trends say six year olds dominate….they have won seven of the previous 10 running’s. You must arrive here having won last time out, as eight of those 10 winners also did that and, if you are outside the front two on the tissue, stay in your box….nine of the last 10 winners were favourite, or second favourite.

The three six year olds all got beaten last time out and the only two arriving having won last time out are GREEN BOOK and ANGLERS CRAG.

The first named is trained by Venetia Williams who won this with her only previous entrant in the competition, TOUBEERA, in 2014.

GREEN BOOK is a 5-y-o, trained by a trainer who knows how to win races run on heavy ground and will arrive with a stunning RTF figure 60%

It’s not a race I can assess accurately using trends because nothing is a 100% fit, but GREEN BOOK is closest and if that’s front pair on the tissue, I’ll have a quid on it.

RON – GREEN BOOK

SEAN – ANGLERS CRAG

1.50pm Ascot

Looks a poor renewal of this race to me. The last five winners of it arrived having won last time out and all six turning up on Saturday arrive having been beaten last time up.

Six and seven year olds are where we’ll usually find our winner, and they’ll be in the front three on the tissue because trends say seven of the last 10 winners were.

Someone is going to trouser nearly £30k with an ordinary horse and I cannot see a winner of this in the last decade that went on to be much above what I’d call half decent.

So, no older than seven, front three on the tissue….DOES HE KNOW and ANNUAL INVICTUS look the best of the bunch.

It’s a toss of a coin job. DOES HE KNOW is 0-2 ground, whereas ANNUAL INVICTUS is 2-7. But ANNUAL INVICTUS is having his first run over this trip, whereas DOES HE KNOW is 2-4 at it.

You would be a brave man to say either is a good thing but I prefer horses that have winning form on the ground and ANNUAL INVICTUS is around 4/1, wears first time cheekpieces and Chris Gordon has his running to a RTF figure of 61%, whilst Kim Bailley is 41%.

I’ll go with ANNUAL INVICTUS 20/80

RON – ANNUAL INVICTUS – 20/80

SEAN – FERN HILL E.W

3.38pm Ascot

The first race you can play e.w. 1-2-3….hurrah!

Having said that, we are relying on Joseph O’Brien sending his over to keep it that way and right now, I see no jockey booked.

Eight currently go to post and if trends I’m looking at continue, this should be a piece of cake to solve. You need a seven year old onside because they have won 50% of the 10 I’m working with, and three of the last four.

They all carry 11st 7lb so next I’m looking at market position and if you sit outside the front three on the tissue, you’re done for!

It’s another poor renewal of the race though, as the front three all arrive having been beaten last time out and I see five of the last 10….and the last four, all arrived having won last time out. Again, someone is going home with a lovely prize of over £85K, with a bog average horse that cannot string back to back wins together. Outside the front three on the tissue, the rest arrive with as many letters as numbers next to their names.

If FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES arrives he’ll most likely go off favourite and, for that I’d oppose him. Only two of the last 10 favourites obliged.

The only other seven year old in the front three on the tissue I’m looking at is another Venetia William’s trained horse, FANION D’ESTRUVAL.

Around the 9/2 mark and good for a 20/80 on trends alone, I’m in!

RON - FANION D’ESTRUVAL – 20/80

SEAN – DASHEL DRASHER E.W

2.20pm Gowran Park

Seven head to post for what looks a poor first prize to me, for a Grade 3 race.

Trends look useless here. The front two on the tissue are both five year olds but, we’ve had only one of that age win this in the last 10 years and that was back in 2015.

However, if you look to be betting anything bigger than 11/4 you are throwing money down the grid….well, you would have done in all 10 previous race that I’m looking at.

We’ve had no winner bigger than 9/4 in the last eight years.

The only qualifier on tissue is TEAHUPOO, currently around 13/8 and it’s then 5/1 bar but thing is, he’s carting 11st 10lb and only one of the last nine winners pulled that off.

But then, only two winners in the last nine years has carried more than 11st 7lb and all four at the head of the market will be trying to beat that stat.

It’s bonkers from a stats angle but I’ll run with the favourites stat, and put up TEAHUPOO to break so many trends its ridiculous.

RON - TEAHUPOO

SEAN – QUILIXIOS

3.30pm Gowran Park

Another poor prize for the grade of race.

Henry De Bromhead has saddled three of the last five winners but has nowt in here on Saturday. It’s a dog of a race to be fair.

Four of the last nine winners won at odds on and none of the last six winners went off bigger than 3/1….and that was last years winner….before that it was 5/2.

We’ve got a 10 year old trading 6/4 favourite, and that horse has not seen a winners enclosure since 2019….I could not back MELON.

The second favourite is, officially, 11lb inferior to MELON, but runs of level weights. The third favourite is a stone inferior to MELON….but has to give this 10 year old favourite 3lb?

If MELON loses, he’s a lemon. It’s a race I’d swerve like a plague for betting purposes but for podcast purposes I can only say MELON.

RON – MELON

SEAN – CHATHAM STREET LAD

OMMS 1-2-3

CHARM OFFENSIVE – 8/1 > 5/1 – WON 7/1
COOLVALLA – 10/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1
ARD CHROS – 14/1 > 7/1 – WON 7/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON

E.W. DOUBLE ANNUAL INVICTUS AND FANION D’ESTRUVAL

SEAN

ANGLERS CRAG E.W.

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