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Join us for a LIVE SHOW at Lowlander Brewing at Railspur right near Lumen Field! We will be joined by special guests Mike Sando of The Athletic, and Brady Henderson of ESPN.
WHERE: Lowlander Brewing (old FX McCrory’s)
WHEN: 4PM-5PM show, 5PM-6PM book signing & pictures
TICKETS: LIMITED TICKETS AVAILABLE HERE
I will also be bringing copies of my new book: We Did Not Care. If you would like a signed copy, please purchase a VIP ticket. If you just want to come and hang out and watch the show, grab the General Admission seat. There are limited tickets, so grab them while you can!
Hope to see you there!
Perfection is often a mirage. People chase it in their appearance, their careers, their relationships. It forever evades them. They think they have what they want until they see someone else with more or better. True perfection usually is fleeting. It is the sunset with a loved one, your child’s first laugh, a first kiss. Football makes this a harsh reality for fans who loyally follow their teams. Each play, each quarter, each game presents an opportunity for joy, only to regularly turn into despair or envy. A win streak can snap. A rival can outshine you. There have been 50 seasons of Seahawks football. Forty-eight of them ended with a loss. Not this one. The Miami Dolphins may claim the only undefeated season, but your 2025 Seahawks just finished a perfect season of their own. The script they wrote was so full of goodness, Hollywood would have rejected it due to unbelievability. Believe it. The Seahawks are Super Bowl champions once again, and oh how sweet it is.
Forget who plays for this team, who coaches them, or who works in the front office. We will get to them in a second. Think about what would have been the dream scenario for a Seahawks fan before this season. Start with a team that was ridiculed. Create that underdog tale the Northwest loves. Add in a vicious defense that strikes fear in opponents. Now weave in a playoff path that involves maximizing 49ers and Rams misery. Beat the 49ers on their home field to secure the top seed. Beat them again on your reinvigorated home field. Make it a humiliating loss for good measure. Welcome in a cocky Rams team that does not respect you and beat them and their MVP quarterback for the second time in three games. Take a trip back down to your new home-away-from-home in Santa Clara and beat the team responsible for the most scarring loss not only in franchise history, but maybe in sports history. Do it on your rival’s home field. Deck out their stadium with your green and blue colors. Hang massive pictures of your players inside and out. Lift the Lombardi Trophy surrounded by confetti and drench each other in champagne in their home locker room, something they have never done in any locker room.
Come on.
That is so silly that no Seahawks fan would have dared to even imagine it. Now add in the people.
Sam Darnold is a Super Bowl Champion. The same guy who was the butt of every joke and dismissed throughout this season no matter how many games his team won or how much evidence he provided. He may still see ghosts, but they will be the haunted souls of all the people who said he would never be here. He finished the playoffs with no turnovers despite facing Rams and Patriots defenses that excelled at making life miserable for quarterbacks.
Cooper Kupp and Ernest Jones IV were tossed aside by the Rams. Kupp is one of the world’s great people. He is humble and kind and hard-working and incredibly talented. He gives more than he takes, and has a fantastic sense of humor. The Rams discarding him was understandable, but they took it an extra step and snickered at him for fumbling in the first half of the second Rams game. Chris Partridge, the Seahawks outside linebackers coach, almost came to blows with Rams coaches for the slight. Look who’s laughing now.
Jones was anointed the new leader of the Rams defense by Aaron Donald after he retired. Sean McVay and Les Snead decided they knew better and traded him for a bag of chips before last season to the lowly Tennessee Titans. How fitting for him to find his way to the Seahawks.
In fact, the Rams were a primary reason Darnold became available to sign in Seattle after they sacked him nine times in the playoffs last season. That, combined with their Kupp and Jones decisions, contributed greatly to their own demise as all three played big roles not only in the wins over LA, but across the whole season.
Who they are as people was as important as who they were on the field as players. Darnold’s otherworldly ability to flush bad plays or bad games rubbed off on his teammates. But it was Jones’s fiery defense of his quarterback after he was in peril that will be remembered as the final stitch in the tapestry of this championship squad.
“Sam’s been balling,” he told reporters after Darnold’s four interceptions against the Rams in Week 11. “If we want to try to define Sam by this game, Sam’s had us in every f–king game. So, for him to sit there and say, ‘That’s my fault,’ no it’s not. It was plays that defensively we could have made, opportunities where we could have got better stops. It’s football, man. He’s our quarterback. We’ve got his back, and if you’ve got anything to say, quite frankly, f–k you.”
Seattle never lost again. Be sure to thank the next Rams fan you see for gifting Seattle Darnold, Jones, and Kupp. That is, if you can find one.
Mike Macdonald becomes a Super Bowl winner in just his second season at the helm. He told anyone who would listen that he expected to win it all throughout the offseason. Most took it as typical coach speech. He meant it. People will talk about him for his savant play calling, but his biggest contribution to this team might have been his willingness to admit he needed help growing as a leader.
His work with performance psychologist Michael Gervais helped him bring his vision of a connected locker room to life. They instituted walk and talks, mixed up the locker room assignments, leaned on Neiko Thorpe’s penchant for fun to launch shadow boxing competitions that spread like wildfire, forging bonds that will last a lifetime.
This team played not to prove others wrong, but to lift the brothers they loved.
The Patriots felt like an afterthought. We could recount the plays that led to the 29-13 win, but that would be like focusing on the flower instead of appreciating the Spring that nurtured the seed.
Macdonald constantly preaches process over results. The process this season was a work of art. Each day was maximized. The team never got high or low. They managed a steady burn that led to the league’s best point differential and three losses by a combined nine points.
They only trailed by 10 points or more twice all season. They won one of those games, and had a kick as time expired that would have won the other.
Coaches like McVay and Kyle Shanahan scoff at special teams. Macdonald hired Jay Harbaugh to torture the league. No team had more return touchdowns. No kicker has ever scored more points. No punter has merited consideration for Super Bowl MVP until this one.
There were no weaknesses.
This team could run. They could pass. They could defend the run, rush the passer, cover. They scored when they kicked off. They scored when you kicked off. There was nowhere to hide. No quarter was given.
So much can be traced back to the defensive line that was built in every possible way by John Schneider. He traded for Leonard Williams. He drafted Byron Murphy and Derick Hall and Boye Mafe. He signed Jarran Reed and DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu as free agents.
What was an embarrassment just two years ago when the Pittsburgh Steelers rolled into town and ran them over when the playoffs were on the line became the most feared position group in football. It was fitting that Hall had two sacks, including the back-breaking strip sack in the Super Bowl. He and Mafe played selflessly all year where so many young players would abandon their brothers in the name of a flash play that would get them a bigger payday down the line.
That happens because guys like Williams, Nwosu, Lawrence and Reed set the standard and held people to it.
If Williams and crew were the muscle, Devon Witherspoon was the heart. His infectious energy was on full display as he became a human blur on the way to sacking Drake Maye once and causing the game-ending fumbleception that Nwosu returned for a touchdown.
There are not words that can describe the respect he commands in that locker room. He is about ball and lifting his brothers. There is nobody quite like him.
The defense came together to form The Dark Side. Nothing so dark has ever created something so bright.
It would be hard to talk about what made this team special without talking about the offensive line. A source of misery for over a decade, this group became one of the most promising young units in the NFL. Grey Zabel became an instant starter and looks to be a future All-Pro. Charles Cross stepped into a leadership role in his fourth season. Abe Lucas finally had a chance to play healthy. Jalen Sundell got to play next to his former college roommate and ended the season as one of the more promising centers in the league. Anthony Bradford rebounded from rough moments to contribute heavily to the run game. They will be a group that can be the foundation for years to come. Teams with great offensive lines always have a chance.
None of this happens without John Schneider. He made all the right moves, starting with hiring Macdonald. No GM has ever won two Super Bowls with two different coaches and two totally different rosters. Until now. This ring cements him as one of the best in the history of the sport.
Perfect seasons don’t come around very often. We may never replicate the satisfaction that comes with this win and this season. Chasing perfection misses the point. What happened this year is permanent. It is written in ink. We started this season thinking perfection was a mirage, but as the confetti falls, it looks pretty real to me. This is ours. Forever.
THEY DID IT! The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl Champions!
What a game. What a season. It is finally time to raise the banner again.
The confetti is falling in Santa Clara, and the players are putting on their official “Champions” hats and t-shirts right now. If you want to wear exactly what the players are wearing in the locker room, the official Trophy Collection is live right now.
Shop the Official Super Bowl Champions Collection Here
Why Shop Through This Link? As many of you know, we are pushing hard toward our $1 Million Charity Goal.
Fanatics is partnering with HawkBlogger for this championship run. When you buy your championship gear through our links, you aren’t just getting the best merch—you are directly supporting this blog and helping us contribute a portion of commissions to our charity partners.
What’s Available? Fanatics just dropped over 500+ championship items, including:
- The Locker Room Trophy Collection: The exact hats and tees worn on the podium.
- Jerseys: Including Super Bowl patch editions.
- Autographed Collectibles: Look out for exclusive signed gear from stars like JSN.
Heads Up: We’ve been told that sales volume is expected to be massive immediately following the game. The popular sizes for the “Locker Room” hats and shirts usually sell out within the first few hours.
If you want to secure your piece of history, I recommend grabbing it tonight.
Click here to shop the full Seahawks Super Bowl Collection
The clock has hit zero, the confetti is falling, and the Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl Champions.
It is hard to find the words to describe this moment. After a season where the outside world counted this team out, the Seahawks stayed the course. They believed in each other. And tonight, they stand on top of the world.
For years, I have had the privilege of writing about this team, riding the highs and lows right alongside you. But this season was different. It felt like a story that needed to be kept and cherished.
That is why I am incredibly proud to announce my first book, published in partnership with Triumph Books:
WE DID NOT CARE: How the Seattle Seahawks Silenced All Doubts and Became Champions
This book is the 2025 season through my eyes. It is a collection of the moments we experienced together, week after week.
What’s Inside:
- The “Morning After” Collection: I have compiled all my game columns from this season into one place. You can re-read the immediate reactions, the analysis, and the emotions of every single game that led us to this night.
- The Full Story: Along with the game recaps, I’ve included select feature stories that add context to how this roster came together and the pivotal moments that defined their character.
This isn’t just a recap of stats and scores; it captures the journey we’ve been on together. It is a time capsule of a season we will never forget, written as it happened.
A SPECIAL THANK YOU FOR READERSBecause this is my first book, and because you have supported my coverage all season, I wanted to make sure you got the best deal possible.
I have arranged a special discount code for HawkBlogger readers. You can use code HAWKBLOGGER20 at checkout on the Triumph Books website to get 20% OFF the title.
- Code is valid through the end of February.
- Pre-orders are open immediately.
You can grab your copy at the link below:
GET THE BOOK: triumphbooks.com/WeDidNotCare(Alternative link: triumphbooks.com/Seahawks2026)
Thank you for reading, for commenting, and for being part of this community. Enjoy this night. We earned it.
Go Hawks!
-Brian
The Super Bowl is tomorrow. Seattle faces off against New England in a game between two opponents who are connected by a historic play, and little else. Drake Maye has put together a season worthy of MVP consideration, but in relative obscurity for most Seahawks fans. Seattle has assembled the league’s best defense, but Patriots fans have had little exposure to the team tucked up in the northwest corner of the country. Both teams and fan bases have spent the last two weeks learning about one another. The learning was mostly done after a few days. Oversaturation has been the story since.
There are no new insights to uncover that really matter. There are no new storylines worth telling. Consider this more a journal of my final thoughts than an attempt to add to the conversation.
We have heard repeatedly that the Seahawks are the better team. Almost everyone is picking Seattle to win, and many are so bullish that they expect a comfortable margin of victory or have trouble coming up with a game script where the Patriots win. That has the ironic effect of making most Seahawks fans both happy and deeply uncomfortable.
The Seahawks are the more talented team. They should win. They also are probably in for a far tougher game than many are predicting.
New England is the second-best team the Seahawks have faced this season. They are not as good as the Rams, but they are better than the 49ers, the Texans, or any other team Seattle played. They are well-coached, disciplined in their assignments on defense, and feature elite talent in pivotal positions.
Maye is capable of making plays that guys like Brock Purdy or Matt Stafford can make, while also threatening with his legs in a way that would keep any defensive coach up at night. Milton Williams is a game-changing interior defender playing next to another defensive tackle who is not far behind in Christian Barmore. Christian Gonzalez is one of the best corners in the game. Mike Vrabel has his squad maximizing their talent, and playing with a grit that makes them hard to shake and often more than their opponents can handle. Josh McDaniels is one of the best play callers in the game.
The idea that the Patriots have little chance against any team they face is foolish. The talk about their schedule is overblown. The criticism of their offense in the playoffs is misguided. They are worthy of being the AFC representative in the Super Bowl, and will give the Seahawks everything they can handle.
If it took Seattle their “A” game to beat a team like the Rams, it will take at least an “A-” game to beat the Patriots.
Part of what has made the Seahawks such a great team this season has been how consistently they have been from week-to-week. Nobody has been able to truly separate from them. The one time a team did get ahead by a decent margin, Seattle still came back and won.
The Patriots cannot feel good about the matchup between the left side of their line and the array of weaponry the Seahawks can deploy to attack that spot. They may like their corners, but have to be uncomfortable with the stress players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, and Ken Walker III can apply both vertically and horizontally. They should be confident in their young quarterback, and also concerned about how he will hold up against the sophistication of Mike Macdonald’s defense.
One of the intangible reasons this game should be great is that both coaches instill confidence in their clubs while avoiding the traps of overconfidence. They prepare and play like professionals.
Neither team provided any bulletin board material this week. There is mutual respect.
People outside the building have provided New England with enough extra motivation with the constant wave of Seattle love and Patriots doubt. Maybe that intangible matters. Maybe it does not. In a matchup this close, little things tend to matter.
Experience playing in the Super Bowl can be one of those little things. These two teams have remarkably few guys who have been there before. Williams was there last year with the Eagles. Cooper Kupp and Ernest Jones IV were there with the Rams. Vrable played in it, but has not coached in it. McDaniels has coached in plenty of Super Bowls. John Schneider has helped his team through a bunch himself. That aspect is probably a push.
If this game is going to be close in the end, how teams perform in those close and late moments could be the difference. Seattle has an edge there. Sam Darnold has 4 game-winning drives this season, and 9 over the past two years. Maye has just two this season. His numbers in close and late moments (less than 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter or overtime with a scoring margin of +/- 8 points) are not great. He has yet to throw a touchdown, has been sacked three times, and has an 82.6 passer rating. It might be tough to count on those numbers improving in the biggest game of his life while facing this Seahawks defense.
Lost in all the focus on Darnold’s turnovers is that he has been among the best close and late QBs in the NFL the last two seasons. He has the third-highest passer rating (111.2) and third-most passing TDs (5) in those situations since 2024.
Maybe the masses will be right, and this will be a clean win for Seattle that will prove their NFL supremacy. I expect a far closer contest that could go either way. Seattle likely wins six times if these teams play ten games. Whether this game will be one of those six will come down to a few key moments and a few key decisions.
Lineup NotesSeahawks fans have slowly recovered from the Nick Emmanwori injury news that sent them into a freakout frenzy earlier this week. The do-everything rookie has no injury designation for this game, and should be good to after practicing fully on Friday. Robbie Ouzts is the only true question mark. The fact that he has been battling a neck injury and was not made available to the media most of the week is probably not a good sign for his chances to play in this one. That would lead to more multiple tight end sets for Seattle, and use of Eric Saubert as an H-back when the team wants an extra blocker in the backfield. Brady Russell will play, but does have a hand injury that likely keeps him out of the backfield.
New England had their own little freakout with Maye’s shoulder injury. That appears to be behind him and the team. The remaining questions for them are defenders Robert Spillane and Harold Landry. Both have practiced in some capacity this week and have said they intend to play. The fact that the injuries are problematic enough to still be questions after two weeks could indicate they will be limited even if they get on the field, or may not be able to stay out there. Spillane is critical to the Patriots, and Landry was their sack leader. Missing either or both would be a significant shift in this game.
Personnel SpotlightSpecial for the Super Bowl, I pulled numbers for how both teams perform on offense and defense in key personnel groupings.
The Seahawks have been one of the lowest 11-personnel teams in the NFL. They have dramatically improved their performance in that grouping since the addition of Shaheed. They are running from that grouping better than they had earlier in the year. Their bread-and-butter remains 12-personnel. They were the second-best EPA team in that grouping this season, and were equally likely to run or pass, making it tough on defenses to key on their tendencies.
New England has been very good at defending 11 and 12, ranking in the top ten against both. They struggled against 21, which makes the potential absence of Ouzts a bigger issue.
The Patriots are the best 11 offense in the NFL, but use it less than 50% of the time. Seattle has been a top ten defense against that grouping. New England like to run 21 as well (4th-highest usage rate), but the Seahawks have been the best 21 defense in the league this season. Former Husky Jack Westover will test them as the fullback who can be an effective receiver.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
NOTE: The Total DVOA, Off vs Def, and Special Teams DVOA rows are using the weighted DVOA metric that includes playoff games. The Pass Off vs Run Def and Run Off vs Run Def rows are regular season only.
DVOA sees this game largely the way I do. Seattle has advantages in most areas, but the overall strength of these two teams makes it a close one. The Patriots challenges in defending #1 receivers is less about Christian Gonzalez and more about opponents finding ways to get their top target advantageous looks.
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Note: All of these rankings include playoff games except for passer rating
Patriots key advantages on defenseWillams and Barmore are game-wreckers inside. Opponents have been unable to run on the duo and they are disruptive in rushing the passer. They will look for ways to overwhelm the Seahawks interior line where Anthony Bradford, Jalen Sundell, and Grey Zabel have had rough moments at times. Kobie Turner was the biggest disrupter when facing the Rams, and one could argue the Patriots have two players of Turner’s caliber on their line.
The Patriots have been blitzing far more in the playoffs. Their disguises are good, and help an otherwise underwhelming edge rush get some pressure with some effective twists and stunts.
Their corners are all capable of making plays on the ball.
New England will feel good about their chances if they are able to limit the Seahawks run game and allow their pressure packages and interior talent to take over.
Seahawks key advantages on offensePart of what makes JSN so difficult to defend is that he does just about everything well and can be almost anywhere in the formation. This is not a guy who will stay on one side of the field and run a few specific routes well. Teams can try to put their best corner on him, but is that corner comfortable playing in all the spots JSN can line up?
There has been some talk of Gonzalez shadowing JSN. Gonzalez has played 828 snaps at outside corner and 38 snaps in the slot. How comfortable is he sorting through the messy middle of the field without the boundary acting as a de facto defender? What about covering a player coming out of the backfield who can’t be pressed? Gonzalez is a terrific talent, but learning new skills while facing the best receiver in the NFL in the Super Bowl is a lot to ask.
All the attention on JSN makes life easier for Shaheed, who is a mismatch vertically against any of the Patriots corners. Jake Bobo is another interesting name to watch as his height could be factor when matched up against 5’8″ Marcus Jones in the slot. Bobo and Kupp should have a blocking advantage there in the run game as well.
Walker has become almost as much of a headache as JSN. He is getting every yard on the ground and causing missed tackles in space as a receiver. The screen game for the Seahawks has quietly become a strength and could figure heavily into the game plan against some of these aggressive looks from the Patriots.
Seattle tight ends are among the most underappreciated position groups in the league. They are massive, and have a huge hand in the run and pass game. One name to monitor is Elijah Arroyo, who has not yet been active for a playoff game. It would create some uncertainty for New England if the hyper-athletic rookie was part of the game plan.
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Patriots key advantages on offenseMaye was fantastic during the regular season. While struggling in the playoffs, he has still made enough plays to win. His legs and ability to not just extend plays, but take off for big runs, has to be the number one concern for Macdonald. They have experienced what it is like to play great defense against Purdy for 3-4 seconds, only to surrender a back-breaking throw or scramble. Maye has a similar profile. He holds onto the ball for a long time and that can lead to big plays or sacks.
Rhamondre Stevenson is a battering ram out of the backfield, and is excellent in blitz pickup. His backfield partner, Teveyon Henderson, is a big play machine. He is a liability as a pass protector, though, and that limited him to just four snaps against the Broncos.
Stefon Diggs remains a great route runner, who is reliably open for Maye. The other receivers are all capable of making big plays. It is a group without top-shelf talent, but their advantage comes in their ability to have contributors across the board. Deciding where to concentrate coverage is easier when you know the one or two guys you want to limit.
New England not only has an array of receivers, but guys like Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThe Patriots play two rookies on the left side of the line in Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Both are talented players, but have some physical limitations that make them targets for the Seahawks pass rush plan. Center Garret Bradbury has also had some challenges against size. He gave up a sack last year against the Seahawks when playing for the Vikings, and had just a 26.6 pass blocking grade in that game.
The most plausible way this game could get out of hand is if the Seahawks defensive front overwhelms the Patriots line and has Maye under siege the whole game. Maye has been sacked 5 times in each of their three playoff games so far, and has fumbled a lot as well. He was excellent against pressure during the regular season. That has not been the case in the postseason.
Watch for Derick Hall and Boye Mafe to potentially play bigger roles in this game as their matchups are favorable.
One schematic matchup that will be interesting to watch is whether this potential Cover 6 approach that Seattle employs is, indeed, a weak spot for Maye.
Maye vs Cover 6 since apparently that’s the blueprint.
Shoutout @JoeLFGPatsPod who nailed how to attack it.
Bills sniffed it out. Buffalo normally plays it on 11.6% of snaps (NFL AVG 9.8%). In Week 5, they used it 11.8% and lost. In Week 15, they cranked it up to 50%, and Maye… pic.twitter.com/N5Q60elUhp
— Pete Collins (@Pete_Collins_) February 4, 2026
Special Teams
The Seahawks special teams has been remarkably consistent in finding ways to impact the outcome of games. They will have one of their biggest challenges of the year in covering Jones as a punt returner. New England has some tough decisions to make with kickoffs. Do you want to risk allowing Shaheed to return or give Seattle the ball at the 35-yard line? The Patriots kicker has been one of the least accurate in the league, with all of his misses coming under 50 yards.
Key to a Patriots winNew England has to bottle up the Seahawks run game. Do this, and they should be able to keep the game close if they avoid turnovers. It would put the Seahawks in more difficult situations where the talent on their interior defensive line could shift the outcome. They also need Maye to play a clean game. He cannot be the source of turnovers and negative plays.
Key to a Seahawks winSeattle’s ability to rush the passer is critical. This has been an uneven aspect of the team. Creating pressure without getting to the QB won’t cut it this time. They have to both contain Maye as a runner and hit him as a passer. They will win if that happens.
Multiple outlets are reporting that the Las Vegas Raiders and Klint Kubiak are going to come to an agreement for him to be the next head coach of the struggling franchise. This would mark the second straight year the Raiders tapped a former Seahawks coach to be their head man. Kubiak, though, is about as different from Pete Carroll as possible. Young, offensive-minded, and subdued, Kubiak will walk into a situation with the top overall pick that could be used on a quarterback to build around, as well as a significant chunk of cap space. There had been some question about whether Kubiak would leave Seattle and move his family again, but those questions appear to have been answered. Seattle now faces a potentially difficult situation where they will be late to dip into the offensive coordinator market after the Super Bowl.
This will be the third straight season Mike Macdonald will need to hire a new offensive coordinator. His first season as the head coach came at a similarly late time in the hiring cycle when the Baltimore Ravens were eliminated in the AFC Conference Championship. There is belief that timing contributed to a somewhat rushed process that resulted in a hire of Ryan Grubb that Macdonald took at least somewhat on faith, as the two had not crossed paths much and Grubb had a history of being heavily pass-oriented. That marriage didn’t last past one season, and Macdonald was far more deliberate about his hiring process this past offseason.
The selection of Kubiak not only brought a coach with an aligned philosophy that centered around running the ball, but also an experienced staff who were capable of installing their system rapidly and with confidence. John Benton, Rick Dennison, Andrew Janocko, and Michael Byrne came with Kubiak from New Orleans, and had a huge impact on the offensive line, while making the job of the quarterback clear and consistent.
Janocko and Dennison were with Kubiak in Minnesota when he was the OC there in 2021. Benton joined Kubiak in New Orleans, but was not present in Minnesota. Byrne is a relatively new coach at the NFL level and has only been with Kubiak. He does have history at Pacific Lutheran University, so there are some northwest ties there.
Justin Outten is an interesting name here. He was the offensive coordinator in 2022 for the Denver Broncos when Kubiak was the passing game coordinator and QB coach. Outten is the run game coordinator and also the assistant offensive line coach. He stepped in to take over the running backs room when Kennedy Polamalu stepped away from the team this season. The run game took off almost immediately after that change occurred.
Outten worked for Nathaniel Hackett in Denver and was saddled with the disastrous season from Russell Wilson that resulted in an offense ranked dead last in points scored, and 21st in yards. Hackett was the play caller to start that season until he turned over play calling to Kubiak instead of Outten, despite Outten having the OC title. Outten called plays the final two games after Hackett was fired. It is worth noting the Broncos scored 24 and 31 points in those two games, and had a season-high 471 yards in the season finale.
Seattle will want to stabilize the staff as much as possible. Benton is the biggest question mark. Both the line in New Orleans and Seattle took big steps forward under his tutelage. Seattle has one of the youngest offensive lines in the NFL, and appears set up for a sustained run of quality line play.
Benton could find it appealing to stick with a group he has helped shape, and not have to uproot again. He may prefer to stick with Kubiak and get build another line in Vegas.
If Seattle considers Outten for the OC role, his relationship with Benton will also factor into the decision. The two have worked hand-in-hand all season with the line, so each will have a clear perspective on what their partnership could look like.
Dennison has a long history with the Kubiak family and would seem certain to go. Janocko would be a safe bet to move on as well to work with the top pick and possibly get the OC job under Kubiak.
The most worrisome scenario for Seattle would be if Kubiak offers Aden Durde the job as defensive coordinator. Durde does not have play calling duties in Seattle, so the team could not block his move to a team that was offering him that responsibility. The partnership between Durde and Macdonald has been foundational to the defense and to Macdonald’s comfort in Seattle. The two were fast friends, and have a lot of mutual respect.
Macdonald obviously is not going anywhere, so the defense would not be in trouble should Durde move on, but it would be a hit to the chemistry that had developed among the staff on that side of the ball the last two seasons.
Should Durde go as well, secondary coach Karl Scott becomes an appealing internal candidate, as does outside linebacker coach Chris Partridge.
The other internal OC candidate would be passing game coordinator Jake Peetz, who came as part of Grubb’s staff last season after working with Sean McVay. A partnership between Peetz (passing) and Outten (running) would make a lot of sense.
The team will almost certainly interview external candidates as well, but when you make a Super Bowl and set a franchise record for points with a young offensive roster, there is reason to try and introduce fewer variables to the mix.
Todd Monken, who Macdonald coached alongside in Baltimore was hired as the Brown new head coach. Greg Roman was the OC in Baltimore during Macdonald’s first season as DC and was there while Macdonald was coming up as young coach. He was fired by Jim Harbaugh after two seasons with the Chargers. He is reportedly interviewing for the Jets open OC spot.
Roman has a history of run-centric systems that date back to the Colin Kaepernick days in San Francisco under Harbaugh.
Grant Udinski was interviewed for the OC role last year before Kubiak got the job. He has been a candidate for head coaching roles but Jacksonville gave him a healthy raise to stay put. It’s possible Seattle could try to pry him away, but it’s not clear why he would take an OC job instead of staying when he chose Jacksonville over head coaching opportunities.
Hank Fraley was interviewed last year as well, and is an offensive line coach. He remained with the Lions, and might be an option if Seattle goes external.
Mike Kafka is a coach who John Schneider has expressed interest in multiple times. He was candidate for the head coaching role before Macdonald was hired. Seattle was denied the chance to interview him for the OC role last year by the Giants. He was recently hired as a to-be-determined offensive role with the Lions. There might be an opportunity to bring him in as well.
Arthur Smith is another offensive coach who has been linked to Macdonald in the past. He was the head coach for the Falcons for a few years and then the OC in Pittsburgh. He was recently hired by Ohio State as their OC. That should not keep him from taking a Seattle role if there is mutual interest.
One interesting option for Seattle would be to go after Kubiak’s brother, who is the OC in San Francisco. He does not have play calling duties, so the 49ers could not block the move.
Knowing Seattle has been successful on offense this year and is getting a late start on the offseason process due to the Super Bowl, hiring internally would seem to make the most sense. A protracted hiring process while also figuring out free agency and the draft would not be ideal. There is some value in coaches who were already vetted last season to shorten that process if they do go external.
The best news here is that Macdonald has a much more clear picture of what he wants and what works (and doesn’t) on offense than when he started last season. His ability to assess what the team needs and who fits in the building should make this a more efficient decision than it would have been a year ago.
The official word on Kubiak will not come until after the Super Bowl. Seattle will do everything they can to keep focus on the game. It will be challenging for Kubiak and the coaches who may come with him to avoid the temptation to look ahead. Seahawks fans have to hope they complete their mission.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating36 Votes4.6The last time the Seahawks punched their ticket to the Super Bowl, it was with a brash band of brothers who took note of every slight, every doubt. They were 5th-round picks and undrafted free agents who had been passed over but rarely passed on. They were young and smart and terrifying for opponents. This new crew shares the youth and intelligence and brotherhood, but their defining characteristic may be what differentiates them from the iconic Legion of Boom. Michael Strahan posed a question that would have been catnip for the LOB, “Coming into the season, you were an afterthought to the Rams and the 49ers. How does it feel to go through both of those teams to go to the Super Bowl?” Standing on a stage in the middle of a euphoric Lumen Field, head coach Mike Macdonald responded genuinely and defiantly, “We did not care.” The man who resists every attempt to add meaning or narrative to what his team is doing, captured the essence of this group in a phrase so efficient, Hemingway would be jealous. Make no mistake, this team is overflowing with stories worth telling, but their dedication to the game and each other is what sets them apart. Mission over bullshit. One more game to complete the mission.
This was not a revenge story. It was a love story. Sam Darnold has enough bulletin board material to occupy every bulletin board in the country. The grandson of the Marlboro Man could have burned every doubter after a heroic postseason performance, and nobody would have faulted him for it. That is not who he is, and not how this team operates.
Rewind 10 weeks. Darnold walked off a much smaller stage in the bowels of SoFi Stadium after pouring rocket fuel on the negative narratives burning throughout his career with a four interception game. Ernest Jones IV made his way down a long hall to take the stage after Darnold. The two had to squeeze by each other in the narrow corridor, and Jones made a point to make eye contact with his quarterback and say, “I got you.”
Jones climbed behind the podium, and had a message that seemed directed outside the locker room, but was very much for every one of his brothers in it.
“Man, Sam’s been balling,” Jones said. “If we want to try to define Sam by this game, man, Sam’s had us in every fucking game. So for him to sit there and say, ‘Oh, that’s my fault,’ no, it’s not. There were plays that defensively we could have made, there were opportunities where we could have got better stops. It’s football, man. He’s our quarterback, we’ve got his back, and if you’ve got anything to say, quite frankly, fuck you.”
The Seahawks have not lost since Jones delivered those words. There is no way to prove Darnold would have fallen short of the flawless performance he put together to win the NFC Championship if Jones had chose different words or had different feelings. Yet, we have seen numerous teams loaded with talent crumble under the weight of ego and finger pointing. This is not one of those teams.
This team rallied behind their embattled quarterback, and he repaid them by outdueling the MVP.
That cross-team cohesion was born out of a deliberate set of decisions by Macdonald to invest in the connection as much as execution. He saw that the teams that went furthest in the playoffs were the ones who shared a bond beyond the jersey they wore. He took the advice of John Schneider to work with sports performance psychologist, Michael Gervais and his associate Stephen Hauschka. They made every Thursday a day to foster that connection with walk-and-talks that paired players from different parts of the team. They intentionally mixed up the locker assignments so players on offense were intermingled with players on defense and special teams.
Macdonald and Schneider were intentional about who they brought in, and who they let go. Their draft was full of talent and low ego young men with charisma that infused the team with fresh energy. Kids games, like shadow boxing, broke out across the roster and persisted throughout the season.
This team loves one another. Even when one of them makes a foolish and selfish decision, like Tariq Woolen did when he chose face his opponent’s sideline instead of his teammates, they love each other.
There has been doubt about this team, this coach, and players ranging from Darnold to Woolen to Anthony Bradford to Cooper Kupp to Abe Lucas to Drake Thomas and on down the line. That doubt has come from outside national pundits and Seahawks fans. Had they been wired to make this run fueled by doubt, there was a plentiful and renewable supply.
What makes them the favorite to win this franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy, and perhaps more in the future, is the detachment from doubt and hate. They are a team of ultra-talented individuals who are impervious the ups and downs of external perspectives. Others choose the roller coaster. They choose the light rail.
It is not always flashy, but it is dependable and sturdy.
This game required every bit of what they have to offer. The Rams offense was arguably the best unit in football this season. They proved that by beating up on the Seahawks defense twice. Seattle proved they were the better team by beating the Rams twice.
Matthew Stafford was every bit the MVP in this one. He had the determination and precision of The Terminator. Seattle could not shake him or contain him. His decision-making was exquisite. Some of the throws he made were obscene.
Maybe he was aided by Seahawks secondary players falling a few times. More likely, players were falling because they were getting put in bad positions by outstanding opponents.
Devon Witherspoon was having one of his worst games as a pro. He wrote an ending that changed his story. Stops on 3rd and 4th down wound up being enough for his team to punch their ticket to the title game.
The drive that followed was one of the best scoreless drives you will ever witness. It was fitting that the offense would be asked to start from their own 6-yard line in the same endzone that tortured them multiple times this season. There had been strip sack touchdowns and bad snaps and other miserable moments when backed up earlier in the year. Not this time. Not when facing the team that had forced six turnovers against this offense.
Ken Walker III started with a physical 4-yard run to provide some breathing room and start the clock ticking. Most people expected another run on second down. Klint Kubiak had other ideas. Knowing that his most advantageous passing situations were going to be on second down when the Rams were needing to sell out against the run, he dialed up a high percentage pass play to Walker, who turned it into a 15-yard gain.
Back to Walker for 3 yards on the ground made it 2nd and 7 at the 28-yard line with 3:31 to go. Kubiak again eschewed the conservative call and went for a pass. Darnold could not connect with Rashid Shaheed, who clearly was contacted before the ball arrived without a flag being thrown. Clock stopped. Third and long.
Good thing the Seahawks have become good at converting 3rd and long.
Kubiak made a nice call, but the work from Darnold and Kupp was even better. In an absolutely need-it moment, Kupp got just enough to move the chains. If that doesn’t happen, you are punting back to Stafford with over three minutes remaining.
Stuffed for no gain on the next play, Kubiak again went to the air and found Jaxon Smith-Njigba for another high percentage short throw that turned into another first down.
Each one of these decisions are magnified by a thousand in these moments. Every single minute poured into this season by everyone in the VMAC had brought the team to the precipice of a Super Bowl. Many people would crumble under that pressure. This franchise knows better than any how calling a pass when a run is the conventional wisdom can be scarring.
Kubiak’s savvy and courage had brought the team to the Seattle 49-yard line with three minutes remaining. Another run by Walker and then another pass from Kubiak’s playbook. This one fell incomplete, but the refs finally threw a flag on the Rams for holding. First down at the Rams 48-yard line with 2:12 to go.
Walker pushed the pile for 6 big yards on first down to get to the two minute warning. The rest of the drive did not go as well, as the team had to punt, but the damage had been done. The Rams got the ball at their own 7-yard line with 25 seconds to go and no timeouts.
Seattle moved the ball 49 yards and took 4 minutes and 29 seconds off the clock. They changed the field position from their 6-yard line to the Rams 7-yard line. The combination of Witherspoon’s redemption and Kubiak’s daring ultimately ended the Rams season.
They continued to be petulant losers after the final whistle, but it would be a betrayal of who this Seahawks team is to dwell on the ugliness of haters.
As Macdonald said, they do not care. It is ironic. Macdonald and Jones managed to demonstrate what they do care deeply about while emphasizing what they do not. They care about winning. They care about their standards. They care about each other. Bullshit never had a chance against this MOB. The Seahawk are super once again.
Football analysts are constantly looking for a unique perspective that gives them a clearer view of how a player, a play, a game with turn out. I have been writing some form of this column for 18 years. There have been lessons learned from being right, and many more from being wrong. This game between the Rams and the Seahawks is one of the most challenging to forecast.
By some measures, this is one of the greatest matchups in history. That is not hyperbole.
By DVOA, the NFC Championship Game is essentially the best NFL matchup of the last 47 years, and by a lot.
This is only the seventh playoff game between two teams over 30% DVOA. SB LIV (2019 KC-SF) is the one not on this table. pic.twitter.com/KjsQwzV723
— Aaron Schatz (@ASchatzNFL) January 19, 2026
It is natural for both fanbases to be looking for reasons to believe their side will win. The reality is that these teams are so well-matched that any outcome is possible. Three of the four times Sean McVay has faced a Mike Macdonald defense, the game went to overtime. The two teams are separated by one yard and one point in their matchups so far this season. Seattle’s defense has held the Rams to their worst offense performance of the season, and lost. The Rams offense has put up the most yards ever against a Seahawks defense, and lost.
There are usually individual players, position groups, or aspects of a team that are weak spots to exploit. These teams have very few of those, and the ones they do have are hard to attack. In those situations, the winner is often decided where strength meets strength. The trench battle in this one will almost certainly decide who goes to the Super Bowl.
Seattle has one of the best defensive lines in the game. Los Angeles has one of the most stout offensive lines in the game. If the Seahawks are able to stop the run and rush the passer, they are going to win. If the Rams are able to run the ball and have clean pockets, they likely win. Similarly, if the Rams defensive line can stop the run and get after the quarterback, they are in great shape. If Seattle can put up yards on the ground, limit Rams possessions, and reduce the amount of pure dropbacks, they are in the driver’s seat.
We will not know who wins until the final whistle, but there will be a clear indicator on the first snap. Which team resets the line of scrimmage? It is remarkable how often those early skirmishes tell the tale of what’s to come. The Rams have won those battles early in both games, and got out to leads. The Seahawks won those battles late, and outscored the Rams in the second half each time.
Both of these teams deserve to be here. There is nothing flukey about their success. Two teams enter. One team leaves.
Lineup Notes
Most of the changes from the last game come from the Rams side. Davante Adams was a big absence, as was Quentin Lake and Tyler Higbee. Kevin Dotson also exited after 22 snaps due to an ankle injury. These are critical players for the Rams on both sides of the ball.
Xavier Smith is still available, but Jordan Whittington is getting more receiver snaps now than he was then.
Charles Cross did not play in the last game. He is nursing a foot injury that led to missing both practices this week. If he cannot play or he cannot complete the game, Seattle has some challenges behind him as both Josh Jones and Amari Kight are nursing knee injuries. Undrafted rookie Logan Brown might be gameday call-up from the practice squad.
Recent Trends
The best way to read this table is looking at each row from left-to-right. That gives you a sense of how the teams were performing heading into each of their three games. For example, the Seahawks defense when from 5th in EPA/play when they played the first game, to first in both of the next matchups.
One of the things that becomes clear when doing that is the Rams offense and defense enters this game playing its worst football, relative to the first two. Their offense went from 3rd->1st->11th. Their defense went from 2nd->13th->18th.
Keep in mind, these are not cumulative numbers. They simply capture the games leading up to the next matchup between these teams. That last timeframe includes the final two weeks of the regular season and both the playoff weeks.
If how teams are playing recently has any bearing on the result of a game, Seattle has the largest edge either team has enjoyed heading into this one. The Rams had four of six measures in their favor before the Week 11 game, three of six heading into the Week 16 game, and zero of six heading into this one.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
NOTE: The Total DVOA, Off vs Def, and Special Teams DVOA rows are using the weighted DVOA metric that includes playoff games. The Pass Off vs Run Def and Run Off vs Run Def rows are regular season only.
Not only are the Seahawks the best defense in the NFL and the Rams the best offense, but they are the best in pass defense and pass offense, run defense and run offense. These are two celestial beings colliding.
The Rams defense has advantages, but the recent surge of the Seahawks run game is not as evident in these season-long rankings. Ken Walker III has had productive days as a runner and receiver against the Rams both times they played. Los Angeles has had some challenges with defending RBs as a receivers.
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Note: All of these rankings include playoff games except for passer rating
Rams key advantages on defenseKobie Turner was a game-wrecker the last time these two played. He abused Grey Zabel and Jalen Sundell. He also picked off a pass. The Rams defensive line is stacked with difference makers. Jared Verse and Byron Young on the edge, Turner, Braden Fiske, Poona Ford, and Tyler Davis in the middle. That group allows the Rams secondary to play ultra-aggressively in coverage. They jump routes because they know the opposing quarterback is going to be under pressure and will not have time for double moves and deep passes.
That has bit the Seahawks in a big way, as Darnold has 6 interceptions in two games. Safeties Kam Kinchens and Kam Curl watch Darnold’s eyes and hammer down on routes in front of them. Defensive Coordinator, Chris Shula, does an excellent job disguising coverages. He fooled Darnold in the last game with a zone defense that looked like man before the snap.
This group also excels at dislodging the football. Nate Landman forces a ton of fumbles. It is impossible to feel comfortable going against this defense. They are smart, aggressive, and dangerous. The most glaring advantage in the table above is turnovers.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseThe Seahawks have become an excellent rushing team. Their ability to punish the Rams for playing extra defensive backs could decide the outcome of this one. Seattle put up over 170 yards on the ground in the Week 16 win, and Walker had over 160 scrimmage yards. Walker had a 55-yard touchdown run and a 46-yard screen pass.
The Rams defense is predicated on stopping the run game with their front. Their pass defense is reliant on a ferocious pass rush. Get by the first level as a runner, and there are big yards to be had. Protect your passer, and there are explosive passes out there.
A.J. Barner’s touchdown to help tie the last game was a good example of how the Rams aggression can be used against them. Barner executed a nice double move to sell a route going the expected direction, only to break the other way. The Rams safety bit hard, leaving Barner wide open for the score.
Rashid Shaheed nearly scored on a reverse in the play before Barner’s touchdown. Los Angeles is extremely aggressive. Klint Kubiak has the opportunity to use that aggression against them, but he needs his line to provide enough time for those plays to develop.
Darious Williams is one Rams cornerback who has shown some significant weakness. He was a healthy scratch for a few games before Ahkello Witherspoon was lost for the year to injury. Look for Seattle to attack him,
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offenseSean McVay’s mind working in tandem with Matthew Stafford’s arm, and a dynamic corps of receivers and tight ends, is a handful for anyone. Their big and talented offensive line makes it all work. The most jarring aspect of the Week 16 game was watching that Rams line get push on a Seahawks defensive line that does not get pushed around. Seattle also has zero sacks on Stafford this season.
The Rams have size and strength at both guard positions and both tackles spots. Warren McLendon Jr. has been the rare upgrade over former starter Rob Havenstein at right tackle.
Their running backs are not dynamic, but are tough. They will grind for any extra yard they can find.
McVay came out last time with an aggressive mentality on fourth down from the start. He also had some confusing decisions to kick field goals instead of going for it near the goal line.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThe Seahawks biggest defensive advantage is they have demonstrated the ability to adjust and slow down the Rams offense in both games. That might sound odd given the Rams put up 580+ yards last time, but their run game took a big downward turn that ultimately opened up the door for the Seahawks comeback.
The foundational element of this defense is its ability to shut down the run with lighter personnel on the field. McVay has built his offense to be able to gain 3-4 yards against anyone so he can hunt explosives and still have advantageous distances to convert.
If Macdonald has had enough experience against McVay to know how he will try to run the ball, he should be better equipped to slow down the run earlier in the game.
Coleman Shelton is a guy Seattle has been able to exploit at times at center, as has Alaric Jackson at left tackle.
Ernest Jones IV and Julian Love need to play their best football to shut down the middle of the field that Stafford loves to attack.
Seattle has taken the ball away six times in the last three games, and 15 times in the last seven games. They have just one takeaway in two games against LA. They need to take advantage when Stafford gives them a chance. He leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays since Week 12, including the playoffs.
Special Teams
Special teams keyed the win over the Rams last time. LA has to be very nervous about how this area plays out in this one. That gives them even more reason to go for it on fourth down. Their kicker has been solid, but is inexperienced. He made a pressure kick last week. He will be tested again.
Key to a Rams winEarly success. A Rams team that withstands the initial emotional onslaught and maybe even scores early has the best chance to win. They have the weapons to come from behind, but they do not want this crowd and defense to smell blood in the water.
Key to a Seahawks winIf Seattle can get the Rams to bite on a double move early and beat them over the top, it could create some doubt about being so aggressive in breaking on the ball looking for interceptions. Seattle will need some explosive passes to win this game. There is not a point total or lead that will be safe against the Rams offense. Seattle needs to stay sharp through the final whistle to reach another Super Bowl.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating25 Votes4.8The setting met the moment. Mike Macdonald talks about “chasing edges” in regard to all aspects of his football team. One edge they had yet to unlock was the multiplying force of Lumen Field. Yes, the Seahawks finished the regular season 6-2 at home. Yes, their last home game had been a miraculous win against their toughest opponent in overtime. The case could be made, though, that the Seahawks were losing an edge when playing at home due to some errors on defense that helped lead to 37 points for the Rams in that game. Not on Saturday. Not against the zombie 49ers. Home field advantage was fully restored as part of a joyous, gory, 41-6 dismembering of their bitter division rival. Good thing, as Seattle will need every edge they can muster to beat the Rams next week and return to the Super Bowl.
Much has been made of the invasion of opposing fans into Lumen Field in recent years. I wrote extensively on the topic after doing research into the complexity underlying the problem. Most of the problems are going to be difficult to address. One challenge that can be overcome is exerting more control over who seats are sold to. Progress has been made on two fronts on that issue. The Seahawks have exerted some pressure to sell tickets to friends and family or risk losing their season tickets in the future. I have created HBTix.com to give sellers a way to better understand who is buying your tickets. Both approaches seemed to have helped limit the number of 49ers fans in the stands for this game.
This is not meant as a victory lap or a humble brag hoping for recognition. All I care about is the Seahawks winning every damn game possible, especially at home.
Consider this a progress report. We are taking back our house. It was buzzing in there Saturday night. The crowd was in their seats well before kickoff. Red jerseys were few and far between. I had become accustomed to some opposing fan being within a few seats of me at big games. There were none anywhere close to me at this game. It made the experience so much more communal, so much more enjoyable, even before Rashid Shaheed sent a lightning bolt through the stadium.
Fans were not just there in larger numbers, they were there with the intention to work. Screaming started when the 49ers were in their huddle instead of waiting for them to reach the line of scrimmage. That has not really happened much since 2005 when the crowd advantage tortured the NY Giants into countless false starts. Fans came to lift their team. I felt it. Players felt it.
Even as Brock Purdy ran a marathon behind the line of scrimmage, and made some discouraging, improbable, completions, the crowd sustained their energy and intent. This felt like a family reunion (with relatives you’re happy to see).
The defense did their part, limiting the 49ers to just 6 points and avoiding some of the communication errors that plagued them against the Rams. This was a unique situation that allowed a bit of an apples-to-apples comparison of how the defense would perform against the same opponent on the road versus at home in back-to-back games.
The 49ers may have doubled their scoring output from 3 points to 6 points, but that required a 56-yard field goal to scrape over the upright. They never even entered the red zone. That was just the third time in Kyle Shanahan’s tenure that his offense failed to reach the red zone. One of those games was in torrential rain last season against the Rams, where both offenses struggled in the elements. There was nothing but clear skies in Seattle.
This is not conclusive evidence that the Seahawks have addressed their challenges of playing defense with a loud crowd, but it is certainly a good sign.
Opponents need some sort of edge against this defense because they are choking the life out of teams. They are allowing 6.3 points per game and 182 yards per game over their last three games. Over their last seven games, which includes the 37 points from the Rams, they are allowing just 11.6 points per game. Remove the Rams game, and it’s 7.3 points per game.
All the focus on the less explosive Seahawks offense caused many to miss the already elite defense getting better. You may hear about the Texans defense and the Broncos defense. None of them have been doing what Seattle has done.
They are defending well at all levels. Coverage is great. Run defense is moving toward historically good. Pass rush has been good, even if not dominating. They have held three straight teams (all playoff participants) to 128 or fewer passing yards and -0.59 EPA/pass or lower.
Ricky Pearsall played in this game. At least, that’s the rumor. He finished with 0 catches and 0 yards. Jauan Jennings boasted about wanting to face the Seahawks last week. He had 2 catches for 23 yards, and a drop forced by Tariq Woolen.
Christian McCaffrey tortured the vaunted Vic Fangio Eagles defense. He was held to 35 yards rushing and 39 yards receiving. It was suffocating. It was glorious.
As good as the defense was, the special teams deserves the spotlight. Jay Harbaugh, once again, found a weakness in his opponent and exploited it. Patrick O’Connell confirmed in the postgame locker room that Harbaugh had the Seahawks start with a single returner back on kickoff and 10 men upfield. They had not run that formation much, or maybe at all.
It worked.
Shaheed took the opening kick back for a touchdown, avoiding the cheap shot tripping attempt by the 49ers kicker. The game was over at the point, even if nobody knew it. The 49ers were incapable of scoring even 7 points in this one.
Harbaugh has done this repeatedly with punt blocks, kick blocks, returns and even a kickoff touchdown recovery way back in Week 2 against the Steelers. He has been a central part of the Seahawks becoming this 15-win powerhouse.
Who knows how the game would have gone if the Seahawks offense took the field first. Maybe they would have scored as well. Maybe they would have struggled early and San Francisco would have gained confidence. We will never know. What we do know is the Seahawks special teams are a weapon few teams have in their arsenal.
Once the offense did finally take the field, they put together a quality drive that stalled at the 49ers 13-yard line, but did result in points. They scored on their first two possessions, and three of four in the first half. They wound up scoring on 6 of their first 7 possessions.
They did it without needing to rely on Sam Darnold’s arm thanks to a run game that has emerged as one of the best in football. Seattle has rushed for over 160 yards in four straight games. The 49ers were desperate to stop the run game after yielding 180 yards in Week 18. They stacked the box over 44% of the time, massively above their season average. It didn’t matter.
Seattle run over, around, and through their defense for another 175 yards. Ken Walker III looked like the dynamic weapon I have believed him to be since touting him as an Offensive Player of the Year candidate in training camp. Walker attacked the line of scrimmage with an aggression we have not seen in his NFL tenure. He hit holes, found weak spots, and broke tackles all night. Every time he took a handoff, it felt like he was a threat to go the distance.
Some credit goes to run game coordinator, Justin Outten, who took over the running back room when Kennedy Polamalu left the team a few weeks back. Both Walker and Charbonnet appear to be playing their best football since that change. Robbie Ouzts also seems to have taken a step forward. It is probably not a coincidence that Eric Saubert returned from injury to help with the blocking.
Whatever the reason, Seattle has now found a threatening run game that was simply not part of their repertoire earlier in the season. It was just a few weeks ago that Macdonald said, “It’s getting pretty late to figure it out.” Better late than never.
That, combined with an also improved screen game, has given the Seahawks offense enough variety to challenge defenses who have committed to slowing down Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the explosive passing game. I was hoping to see that return a bit more in this game, knowing San Francisco would be more focused on stopping the run, but it did not.
There was a deep shot to Shaheed that fans have been clamoring for, but it was not close to complete. Still, the pass game had some nice moments. The touchdown pass to JSN was gorgeous. Multiple completions to Cooper Kupp were critical to sustaining drives. The run game allowed Darnold to carry less weight with his injured oblique.
Drew Lock did get to play, but not for the reasons so many were worried about. It is rare to blowout a playoff opponent so bad that you can insert your backup QB with plenty of time left to play. It is even more rare to do it against a divisional opponent that won 13 games and ousted the Super Bowl champs a week prior.
That is who this team is. They are capable of more.
The Rams scraped by the Bears in overtime a day after the Seahawks took care of business. They played an overtime game on the road and will have one fewer rest day than Seattle. Maybe that will matter.
What is crystal clear is that this will be an absolute dogfight on Sunday. Forget about how good the Seahawks have looked lately and how middling the Rams have been. These are the two best teams in football. They have elite players, elite coaches, and are brimming with confidence.
This is very reminiscent of the 2013 NFC Championship between the Seahawks and 49ers. The past did not matter in that game. Both teams traded haymakers. Seattle trailed in that game. They fumbled on the first play. They needed a 4th down touchdown pass and a fingertip pass breakup in the endzone to come away with the win despite being the most talented team in franchise history.
They were better than the 2014 Green Bay Packers, but they had to overcome 5 turnovers to pull off the most unlikely playoff win ever.
These games are not easy. There is no Jarrett Stidham in this game. Seattle will have to play their best game of the season to make it to the Super Bowl.
They enter with the most complete team in the sport, a rejuvenated home field, and new weaponry. The Seahawks have earned the right to compete in this game. They will approach it with the same process and focus they have attacked every opportunity. Edges have not just been chased, they have been secured. The Rams are about to find out just how sharp those edges have become.
The undead are fascination among the living. Life after death permeates wide corners of society, ranging from religion to Hollywood monster stories about Frankenstein, vampires, and zombies. Sam Darnold has been left for dead multiple times in his career. He climbed out of a career grave last season, and while he walks among the living now, the specter of his past follows him like a toxic cloud. Players like Leonard Williams, Julian Love, and DeMarcus Lawrence have only known an early demise. They have never been part of a team this good, that has the potential to go this far.
The 49ers, though, have taken the undead bit further than any author would deem believable. They have been sentenced to death repeatedly throughout the season as player-after-player was lost to injury. That continued a week ago as star tight end, George Kittle, ruptured his achilles. Part of the allure of the undead is the notion that life can continue through the greatest conceivable trauma. There is also a mercy in ending the suffering of the decaying animated corpses who mindlessly wander the land of the living.
Seattle looks to their resurrected stars to finally end this 49ers season. They have advantages on the field and in the stands that are large enough to warrant a seven-point spread in Vegas. There is no credible analysis that can point to why the 49ers should win. There is intangible evidence that says they certainly can. Divisional games are often close. Teams with good quarterbacks and good coaches rarely go down easily. Seattle is unproven in the playoffs. Those are all stories. The Seahawks have the opportunity to write a different tale.
Lineup Notes
There are some substantial changes to the lineup even though these teams played a couple weeks ago. Trent Williams returns for the 49ers. Ricky Pearsall is the big name to watch. He is listed as questionable for the game with a PCL injury, and his availability is truly up in the air. He may play but not last, as any falls on that knee cause significant pain and inflammation, per those reporting on the injury. George Kittle is out, so Luke Farrell will get some tight end snaps.
The 49ers linebackers have been completely switched out. Veteran Eric Kendricks played his first game last week versus the Eagles. Garrett Wallow joined him. Dee Winters is listed as questionable, but the expectation is Wallow will start again. Fred Warner practiced some, but will not play in the game. Finally, Ji’Ayir Brown is out with a hamstring injury so rookie Marques Sigle will start at safety. He started Week 1 against the Seahawks.
Seattle gets back Charles Cross at left tackle. Although, he is nursing a new knee injury and will wear a brace. Coby Bryant is back at safety.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
These are numbers from the end of the regular season. Seattle finishes with the rare trifecta of #1 defense, #1 pass defense, #1 rush defense. This picture told the tale heading into the last matchup where the Seahawks looked like the far superior team the whole night. We will find out if that remains the case in this game.
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
49ers key advantages on defenseRobert Saleh is their biggest advantage. He’s smart and working miracles with a defense thin on talent. Upton Stout is a playmaker at nickel corner. Kendricks is a vet. Bryce Huff is their best pass rusher. C.J. West has been good, at times, in defending the run.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseThe key question coming into this one is the health of Darnold. He injured his oblique in practice this week. He is expected to play, but we will know if the injury will impact his performance or how Klint Kubiak calls the game until kickoff.
Seattle rushed for 180 yards the last time these teams played. Saleh has to be prioritizing how to slow down the run. That presents prime opportunities for Seattle to rediscover their explosive passing attack, but only if Darnold is healthy enough to take advantage.
Jaxon Smith-Nijigba and Rashid Shaheed have significant advantages over the 49ers secondary. There are a lot of reasons why this game may feature far more passing than the last one. The performances of Darnold’s receivers and A.J. Barner will be crucial.
The Seahawks offensive line was a major advantage last time. A repeat performance is the best path toward a comfortable win.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offensePurdy is a dangerous playmaker. Seattle did an excellent job of limiting his escapes from the pocket, and forcing him to play within structure. They played so well, it was almost perfect. It is hard to be perfect twice. Expect more improvisation from Purdy in this one.
A return of Pearsall could be a major addition if he is able to play close to his normal self. Williams can still move people in the run game. Seattle stonewalled Christian McCaffrey last time. He may have more room to maneuver in this one.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle is the best defense in football, with no true weaknesses. The 49ers felt that in the loss in Levi’s Stadium. Seattle has the coverage talent, and the pass rush talent, and the run defense talent, and the coaching talent to make life miserable for offenses.
Leonard Williams may spend some time neutralizing Trent Williams, which can lead to some other shifts along the line. Expect the 49ers to slide protection help away from the left side to help right tackle Colton McKivitz. Trent Williams has been more vulnerable than many realize. He gave up the most pressures against the Eagles last week on the team, and the only team that has created that much pressure when facing him this year is the Seahawks. Seattle winning the trench battle again would make it very tough for the 49ers to put up points.
Special Teams
If the game is close, special teams could certainly play a role. Jason Myers missed two kicks in the last game. Eddy Pineiro missed a kick against the Eagles. Both Shaheed and 49er returner Skyy Moore are capable to shifting field position. The Seahawks advantage at punter and punt coverage could be big.
Key to a 49ers winSan Francisco has to get 3+ yards on early down runs instead of the 0-2 yards they got last time, and they have to create some turnovers. Scoring early would go a long way toward making this a close game.
Key to a Seahawks winSeattle needs to use the crowd noise to their advantage on defense and avoid communication issues that have sometimes occurred at home. Darnold needs to connect on some explosive passes to put Saleh in a true bind about whether he can stop both the Seahawks emerging rushing attack and their weapons through the air.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-1 for the first time since 2007. It is only the fifth time in their history that they have won four of their first give games. The wins haven’t all been cheap, either. They went on the road to beat the 49ers in a game Brock Purdy played. They scratched out a win against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Even a win over the Texans is worth some recognition. They added Liam Coen as their new head coach to help unlock Trevor Lawrence and the offense, but it’s been the playmaking defense that has keyed the fast start to the season.
No team has taken the ball away more effectively than the Jaguars. They have had at least three takeaways in four of their five games. They have 10 interceptions, including a 99-yard pick six by breakout star linebacker, Devin Lloyd. He leads the NFL in interceptions with four. It’s rare for a linebacker to have four in a season, let alone in five games.
There are more established players on the defense, like DT Arik Armstead and former #1 overall pick, Travon Walker, but the combination of Lloyd and newcomer Travis Hunter have keyed the rise as a collective unit.
The offense is a little goofy. The quarterback has trouble getting plays off before the play clock expires, makes some questionable decisions, but also has found ways to come up with a big play through the air or with his feet. They are a physical running team that will be far less likely to abandon the run than the Bucs were in Seattle.
Seattle has played well enough to earn some respect around the league, but sit at just 3-2 on the season. They need to beat a quality opponent like the Jaguars on the road because they lost two games against quality opponents at home. The Seahawks get a bit of a break in that the Jags will play on shorter rest after their emotional Monday Night Football victory and before a trip to Europe the following week.
Seattle is the better team. They need to prove it Sunday.
Lineup notesJacksonville lost two key members of their offense against the Chiefs. Tight end Brenton Strange has been their leading receiver and their best run blocker. He was put on IR and will miss the game. Starting center Robert Hainsey is also out this week, leaving the starting center job to rookie Jonah Monheim. Monheim had a good showing at the Senior Bowl, and may not be a big drop-off.
Walker was hurt against the 49ers and missed the Chiefs game. It’s unclear if he will return for this game. His presence off the edge would be missed if he is unable to play.
Seattle will be without Derick Hall for the first time. DeMarcus Lawrence is expected to give it a go during practice this week, along with Devon Witherspoon, but it’s unclear if either will play. Julian Love should attempt practicing later in the week, which makes his availability even more tenuous.
Tariq Woolen left the last game with a concussion but seems on track to return this week. If he cannot go, we may see Shaquill Griffin return against his former team if the coaches believe he can offer more than Nehemiah Pritchett.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
Seattle holds a decided advantage in DVOA. This may be the game where the Seahawks run game takes center stage after an electric few weeks through the air. Jacksonville gave up 158 yards rushing to the Chiefs, although a lot of it was to Mahomes. The two running backs averaged over 6 yards per carry. The Jaguars have done an excellent job limiting receiving rooms.
Seahawks Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jaguars key advantages on defenseJosh Hines-Allen is an elite edge rusher. His 26 pressures leads the team and ranks 5th in the NFL among edge players. Armstead and Lloyd are playmakers as well. Jourdan Lewis has been effective as a nickel back. Hunter is a unique two-way player, who has played fewer than 10 snaps at corner in two games, and playing 25 or more in three games. They are a better defense when he is playing corner.
Turnovers have powered this defense the whole season. Getting 3+ takeaways in four of their five games is incredible production, and almost impossible to sustain. They only got one turnover against the Chiefs, but they made it count with a 99-yard return for a touchdown. Seattle needs to be aware of Lloyd’s presence in the middle of the field, a place Sam Darnold likes to attack.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseJacksonville is primarily a Cover 3 defense. Darnold has been his best against that coverage so far this season, averaging 0.543 EPA/dropback. That coverage tends to leave seams available to attack with tight ends, which could help explain why the Jaguars have struggled to slow that position.
Seattle continues to be the best 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) offense in the NFL. Jacksonville has struggled to slow 12 personnel. The Seahawks have quietly become a Top 10 offense on 3rd downs after starting slowly. The Jaguars have been one of the worst 3rd down defenses in football.
Seattle has a massive advantage in yards per play. The takeaways for the Jags are hiding some weakness in that defense. They are 16th in success rate, meaning offenses are moving the ball effectively when they are not turning the ball over. A good illustration of just how much takeaways are hiding flaws is the Jags ranking 3rd in EPA per dropback on defense, but 21st in success rate per dropback. EPA is highly impacted by turnovers. Success rate is not. All that to say, protect the football, and this efficient Seahawks offense should be able to score on this team.
One other tidbit: the Jags defense is one of the worst in the NFL in defending runs outside the tackles, allowing over 5 yards per carry.
Jaguars Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Jaguars key advantages on offenseJacksonville has relied heavily on the run game, and short passing. They have also limited sacks and pressures. Lawrence is a bigger threat when he chooses to use his legs like he did against the Chiefs. That was a bigger part of how that offense won the game than his passing. Travis Etienne Jr. is a tough runner. Brian Thomas Jr. can be a game-changing receiver. Parker Washington has made some good plays and Hunter is shifty after the catch.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThe Jags seem to still be in the learning phase with this offense. It can look really remedial and slow at times. Lawrence often has trouble getting plays off before the play clock runs out. There is very little downfield with the passing game, and Lawrence has already thrown 5 interceptions against only 6 touchdowns. The receiving group has dropped 14 passes already, with Thomas and Dyami Brown each having 3 drops.
Seattle has been excellent against the run all season. Only one running back has had more than 50 yards rushing against the Seahawks, and that was Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, when it took 22 carries (3.1 yards per rush) to get 69 yards. Etienne has had at least 50 yards rushing in all but one game this season. Given the absence of Strange and Hainsey, the run game could have an even tougher time against this Seahawks front.
Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II have good matchups in this one, as does Boye Mafe. Left tackle, Walker Little, has surrendered 16 pressures on the season, tied for 8th most among all tackles. Mafe should get 1-on-1 matchups all day.
The Seahawks have struggled to get the quarterback on the ground without blitzing. When they have blitzed, they are 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, and 4th in sack rate. Macdonald needs to feel confident in his secondary to bring more blitzes. He should feel more comfortable against this quarterback and offense than he did against the Bucs. Getting a few players back healthy would help.
Special Teams
Washington has been a good punt returner for them. Their kicker can make it from deep. Seattle is still the class of the league on special teams, especially in the return game.
Key to a Jaguars winJacksonville needs the same formula to win this game that they’ve used to win others. They need to take the ball away and run the ball effectively. The biggest advantage they may have would be Lawrence breaking the pocket and running himself.
Key to a Seahawks winThis would be a great game to break some trends. Seattle has a chance to create more pressure with blitzes, get the quarterback down, and get their own run game going.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating14 Votes2.7Seattle was undefeated when they rolled into Detroit last season with the top-ranked defense in football. They were going to be missing a bunch of starters on that side of the ball, but the hope was that Mike Macdonald would be able to create some sort of game plan to compensate. Instead, the Lions scored 21 points in the first half, 42 for the game, and Jared Goff didn’t throw an incompletion on the night. The Seahawks were 3-1 headed into a Sunday showdown with the Tampa Bay Bucs. They were again the top-ranked defense in the NFL, and were without some key members of their defense. The result was achingly familiar. The Bucs scored 38 points and Baker Mayfield set a record by throwing for 379 yards with only four incompletions. Seattle had similar games last year against the Bills and Packers. A team that prides itself on defense has had a disturbing trend of not only playing poorly against top competition, but putting up almost no resistance. The result was failing another chance to prove they are worthy of higher aspirations than simply making the playoffs.
Injuries are a big part of any NFL season. Seahawks fans have seen two Super Bowl teams, 2005 and 2014, experience the impact of losing key defensive players and having no way to compensate. Even great teams have limits on what they can overcome. The rough part for the Seahawks in this game was you could point the finger at the players or the coaches and both would be valid.
Seattle entered the game without starters Julian Love, Devon Witherspoon, and DeMarcus Lawrence. The coaches chose to keep cornerback Shaquill Griffin on the practice squad and have Nehemiah Pritchett active. They also chose to have edge Connor O’Toole active and Jared Ivey inactive. Pritchett was called into action when Tariq Woolen left with a concussion in the 3rd quarter. He surrendered more touchdowns (2) in two quarters than Woolen has allowed all season (1). Ty Okada, who was subbing for Love, struggled mightily himself. Derion Kendrick, who had been excellent in two games a a nickel corner, also had a rough afternoon.
Macdonald had been able to hide the absence of Witherspoon against the Steelers and Saints because the front four was able to create pressure and he could deploy extra men in zone coverage behind it. The plan was to bring more pressure from different players in this game, while still playing zone coverage. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs hardly noticed there was a defense on the field.
Receivers were wide open. There was only one sack and two QB hits. Running the ball was ineffective, but it hardly mattered when you could average a first down (11.5 yards) on every pass attempt.
To be clear, Mayfield is playing as well as any quarterback in the league. He is having an NFL caliber season. This is a good offense, and may wind up being the league’s best when they get back to full weaponry. It is not shocking that they were able to score some points. It is meaningful, however, that the Seahawks were unable to provide any resistance.
Macdonald took responsibility after the game. He undoubtedly was disappointed in how some of his players performed, but chose not to point any fingers in public. It was hard, though, to watch the amount of players who were open, the degree to which they were open, and the total lack of pressure on the quarterback, and not feel like the game plan and adjustments were a big part of the problem.
Macdonald, for all his impressive moments against great signal callers in Baltimore, still did have some games where he was dominated thoroughly. Mike McDaniel, Sean McVay, and Ben Johnson have all out-coached him at times. His inability to find some adjustment to at least provide resistance in those games is something to monitor. He is still young and does not have the deepest well of experience to draw from. McVay was humbled earlier in his career by Vic Fangio and Bill Belichick. He nearly retired, but has come out stronger on the other side.
Macdonald is building a team built around strong defense. He needs that to show up in these big moments against top competition, or this is all just meaningless mediocrity.
Losing Derick Hall was big. It was bizarre that he went down, and the edge player they had active, O’Toole, did not play a snap. Why was he active? Mike Morris took a lot of edge snaps and was not particularly effective. Jared Ivey is a player who seems to bring a better combination of pass rush and run defense on the edge. We will see if the team makes a change there as Lawrence is probably unlikely to play against this week.
Woolen going down exposed just how much worse things can be at corner, and may have forced the team to hold onto him the rest of this season. Trading him and relying on Josh Jobe, Kendrick, Griffin, and Pritchett feels untenable. Jobe was not great in this game, either.
A sneaky way to improve coverage and overall defensive stability would be to upgrade the inside linebacker role opposite Ernest Jones. Plug in a Demario Davis or Jordyn Brooks there and the middle of the field would be harder to access for opponents. Tyrice Knight and Drake Thomas are not cutting it yet.
There are some overreactions out there about Macdonald and the defense being exposed and the team being doomed. That is either emotional or uninformed. Mayfield is playing at a level most are incapable of reaching. The defense will get guys back and be a Top 10 unit. The question is whether they can be a true foundational defense that can slow down even the best offenses when it matters most. That question is valid and will remain so until they show up differently in these games.
Sam Darnold and Klint Kubiak almost overcame the bad defensive showing with a sparkling performance against a quality Bucs defense. Kubiak deviated from his early down tendencies. He utilized shotgun the most he has since Week 1, and had an early down pass rate of over 50%. That was middle of the pack in the NFL this week, but is notable given the Seahawks have had the 2nd-lowest early down pass rate in the NFL before this week.
The Bucs were the best run defense in football coming into this game. Kubiak decided he could lean on his quarterback and the passing game to soften things up for the running attack. It worked.
Darnold looked every bit Mayfield’s equal. He threw for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns, while only having six incompletions on the day. The running game was highly effective as well. Seattle put up 122 yards rushing and averaged over 6 yards per tote, against a team who had not allowed 100 yards rushing all season, even though they faced the Eagles.
They were explosive and efficient and varied. It was beautiful game on that side of the ball.
This was the second straight week of featuring heavy use of two tight ends with FB Robbie Ouzts on injured reserve. Seattle has been the best two tight end offense in the NFL this year, and that continued in this game.
A.J. Barner came into the NFL with a reputation as a blocking tight end with limited value as a receiver. He caught two touchdowns in this game, and has team-leading four on the season. He has 8 touchdowns since entering the league last year, which is more than the far more heralded Brock Bowers (5). His hands have been terrific, 14 catches in 16 targets, and his ability to impact the game as a blocker and receiver makes him one of the more valuable young players on this roster.
Seattle ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per rush and 2nd in EPA per pass when playing with two tight ends. They run the ball 50.5% of the time, and pass the ball 49.5% of the time. This is their bread-and-butter.
The fact that the offense could perform that well against a defense that had limited their last three opponents to fewer than 270 yards, including the Eagles (200 yards), is reason for optimism.
Being able to win a football game with different aspects of your team makes winning more consistent. Seattle has won games with special teams. They have won games with defense. They nearly won this game with offense.
It was fair to wonder if this offense had been propped up by playing some inferior defenses. The Bucs were the start of a stretch against tough defenses. Playing their best game against that group bodes well.
As great as Darnold and Ken Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were, the offensive line deserves some recognition. The right side, in particular, seemed to open up some holes in the run game. Darnold was not sacked on the day and only was hit twice.
Unfortunately, one of those hits came on his last pass that bounced off a defender’s helmet and hung in the air for a game-deciding interception. If you had asked every Bucs and Seahawks fan watching that game what they expected on that final drive, they would have told you Seattle was going to move into scoring position and take the lead. Seattle had scored touchdowns on five straight drives, including a 99-yard beauty that gave them a late 35-28 lead.
Dareke Young had a terrific game, contributing on kick coverage, kick returns, and as a receiver. He is earning a larger role. Jake Bobo had a couple damaging holding penalties he would like back.
The officials played their normal role with some questionable calls. Jason Myers missed another field goal. The crux of this game, though, came down to a defense that couldn’t get off the field and an offense that has failed twice at home to complete the game-winning drive. As bad as the defense was, Seattle still wins this game if the offense finishes the job.
The Seahawks have now lost two important home games against NFC opponents. Those will definitely come back to haunt them should they earn a spot in the postseason. Nothing gets easier next week in a trip to Jacksonville, where the Jaguars feature one of the best defenses in football and Seattle may not get significantly healthier. The next test awaits this coaching staff and this locker room. We will find out if the connection they have worked so hard to develop can handle the adversity.
No matter what an NFL coach or player tells you, not every game is equal. Beating the Saints, even by 31 points, does not prove a lot about what your team is capable of accomplishing. Seattle won their fair share of those types of games last season, albeit rarely by a comfortable margin. They struggled, though, when going up against the true playoff teams and championship contenders. The Lions scored at will. The 49ers, before they fell apart, blew the doors off the Seahawks in Seattle. The Bills did the same. Green Bay ran right through the improved Seattle defense and the Vikings won a close game late thanks to a guy named Sam Darnold.
Their first chance at redemption came in the season opener against the 49ers. They fell short again. One could argue their win over the now 3-1 Steelers proves they are different. Something about their geriatric quarterback and flawed defense makes that game a little less impressive. This week, however, is different. This week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to town with legitimate belief they can make a Super Bowl run. They have one of the most gritty and irrepressible quarterbacks in the game with Baker Mayfield. They have one of the best left tackles in Tristin Wirfs. Big Vita Vea can ruin any teams day on the defensive line.
They are 3-1, with their only loss coming to the undefeated Super Bowl Champion Eagles, in a game where they held Philadelphia without a completed pass in the second half. They have overcome a bevy of injuries, and will have to do it again this week. The numbers are not all that impressive, but if you watch this team play, you can see the belief they have in the inevitability of a win.
They have what the Seahawks want: respect.
Seattle cannot count on poor decisions from Kyler Murray or immobility with Aaron Rodgers. Mayfield will continue to throw haymakers no matter how far his team is behind or how many times he is knocked to the ground. He almost seems to feed off adversity and violence.
This game sets up similarly to the Packers contest last season. Seattle enters with momentum and people’s attention. Winning this game would change perceptions outside the locker room, and reinforce confidence within. The Bucs are not a perfect team. They are not a healthy team. They are a doorway to bigger dreams for a Seahawks team that has not yet earned access to contender status. This one should be memorable.
Lineup notesTampa is beat up. Their right tackle, Luke Goedeke, is on injured reserve (IR). Their right guard, Cody Mauch, is also on IR. Wide receiver Jalen McMillan is not yet back from IR, and future Hall of Fame receiver, Mike Evans, is not yet back from a hamstring injury. Now, they might be missing cornerback Jamel Dean and backup Benjamin Morrison, who both got MRIs this week. They also could be without starting running back, Bucky Irving, who is battling a foot/ankle injury and had an MRI of his own. They also lost defensive tackle, Greg Gaines, against the Eagles after putting DT Calijah Kancey on IR earlier. Edge Haason Reddick had to leave the game but there is more optimism he could play this week.
The Bucs did get back their elite left tackle, Tristin Wirfs, and receiver Chris Godwin, but this team is decimated right now. Keep in mind that many of these injuries were there before the Eagles game, and Tampa Bay still nearly beat the undefeated Philly squad.
For Seattle, the big news should be the return of Nick Emmanwori. The rookie only played a couple snaps before spraining his ankle against the 49ers in Week 1. His return will mean the team will play a lot more big nickel that has Emmanwori on the field with Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe outside. That will mean a lot less Riq Woolen than we have seen to this point. Swing tackle Josh Jones may not yet be back from his toe injury and DeMarcus Lawrence could be missing after a thigh injury in Arizona.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
Seattle retains the top spot in DVOA rankings for the second straight week. They also boast the #1 defense and special teams. The offense is not too shabby either, ranking 6th, driven by the 2nd most efficient pass offense in football.
Tampa has mostly middling or worse DVOA rankings, except for their run defense that ranks first. Part of what makes this a weird team is that their offense with Mayfield has been impressive, but it’s their defense that ranks well in these, and other metrics.
The special teams gap is notable. More on that later.
Tampa has struggled to slow down running backs as receivers, with Bijan Robinson going for 100 receiving yards Week 1.
Seahawks Offense vs Bucs Defense
Bucs key advantages on defenseVea is a monster in the middle. He can take over any snap. Calais Campbell caused some problems last week. Vea is an even bigger headache. Reddick and Yaya Diaby can create pressure from the edge. Antoine Winfield is a playmaker at safety, and rookie cornerback Jacob Parrish has played well in the slot.
They have the second highest pressure rate in the league, but do it differently than Seattle. They blitz at the 7th-highest rate (34%), more than twice as much as the Seahawks. That has made them a little more vulnerable to the big play, ranking around the middle in explosive plays surrendered. It is worth noting that Sam Darnold has the 2nd-best PFF grade among NFL quarterbacks when opponents blitz. He has the highest big-time throw rate (8.9%) in those situations, and only one turnover-worthy play. His average depth of target on those throws is a league-high 12.6 yards downfield, meaning he hunts explosive plays when opponents blitz.
Having the top run defense by DVOA and EPA tells you this will be a rough game for Seattle to get their sluggish running game off the ground. This is also the third-best 3rd down defense in football. That helps them allow the 4th-fewest yards per drive in the league.
They play zero safety looks at the 3rd-highest rate in the league. That marries with their blitz looks. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks have not performed well against Cover 0 so far, ranking 25th in EPA/dropback and 24th in DVOA.
Tampa is also 3rd in the NFL in EPA/play against under center looks, which Seattle deploys almost 60% of the time.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseJaxon Smith-Njigba is a walking mismatch no matter where he lines up, what route he runs, and no matter who is guarding him. The connection with him and Darnold has been as good as any in the NFL through four weeks. A battered secondary with a thin defensive front could lead to more explosive plays.
Seattle is the best 12 personnel offense in football, and they may just be getting warmed up after deploying it heavily against the Cardinals. They lead the league in EPA/play from that grouping, and have a nearly 50/50 run/pass split which makes them less predictable.
The Bucs linebackers have been playing poorly, especially in coverage. The great Lavonte David may finally be showing his age, and SirVocea Dennis ranks 59th of 63 linebackers by PFF grade. His coverage grade (27.6) ranks dead last. David is not much better at 47th of 63.
That could mean Elijah Arroyo makes a bigger dent in the game plan, and we may also see Cooper Kupp matched up on linebackers. That group has also been vulnerable to backs as receivers, which could mean Ken Walker III and/or Zach Charbonnet make a dent in the passing game.
Tory Horton could be the guy Tampa forgets as they focus attention on JSN. This would be an excellent game for him to make an impact.
Bucs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bucs key advantages on offenseThis really defies the numbers, but Mayfield is the guy to watch. He wills the team to points they would not otherwise get. Rookie Emeka Egbuka has been terrific. Godwin looked rusty in his first game, but might be better this week. Irving is a great running back, but his availability is in doubt. That would mean a healthy dose of Rachaad White, who does have a higher success rate than Irving and the only Bucs rushing touchdown on the season.
Wirfs is a great left tackle. The rest of the line is suspect.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThis is one of those games where you can kind of throw out the numbers and matchups, and really focus on whether Seattle can contain Mayfield in the pocket and take advantage of his propensity to force throws. As good as he has been, there have also been the biggest number of turnover-worthy plays in the league (9). The fact that he has only 1 interception despite all those dangerous throws should mean a regression to the mean is coming.
Seattle has had at least one interception in every game this season. They’ve had multiple in half their games.
The availability of Emmanwori could give Macdonald the confidence to do some things he has not done as much his year, like blitz. Emmanwori showed promise as a pass rusher during training camp, and he made a great play on a blitz when he got injured. Macdonald almost certainly will show things that are not on film with the freaky athletic rookie back in tow.
The reduction in Woolen’s role could be good if it means solid coverage without the penalties and poor plays on the ball. It may be bad if Seattle sees coverage is less sticky without him.
The Seahawks should have a major advantage on the defensive line as the Bucs are dealing with so many injuries.
Special Teams
Punting has been a nightmare for the Bucs. Their punter has had two punts blocked in four games, and the active leader in blocked punts (7) in the NFL. They brought in a tryout punter to evaluate whether to make a switch, but decided to stick with their guy for now. Seattle already has one blocked punt. They also have a blocked field goal, and the Bucs have had a field goal blocked as well.
On the plus side for Tampa, their kicker made a 65 and 58 yard field goal last week. Their punt returner is also excellent.
Seattle has been good at just about everything on special teams. Although, Michael Dickson has had a few too many touchbacks, which is hurting his net yards.
Key to a Bucs winTampa Bay almost certainly needs a turnover to win this game, and to hold Seattle under 20 points. It would also benefit them to have a fast start, as they have been the worst first quarter team in the league.
Key to a Seahawks winClosing. Seattle has struggled to get off the field when the game is on the line against San Francisco and Arizona. Mayfield provides an even bigger test. This game very well could come down to a defensive stand.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating15 Votes3.7Seattle opened this season with a crushing loss to the rival 49ers at home. They not only lost, but they did so impersonating another team on offense. There was one play action pass attempt. They operated mostly out of shotgun. Sam Darnold was given an ultra-conservative game plan that had him throwing most of his passes instantly to receivers and backs who were behind the line of scrimmage. Mike Macdonald was seething after the game, and the whole week that followed. They wanted to win at home. They wanted to beat a division opponent. Mostly, they wanted to play their brand of football. That frustration led to immediate changes. Seattle went from 4% of their passes being play action to 24% the next week. They went from 60% shotgun to 60% under center. That has remained consistent in the weeks that followed (23% play action, 57% under center). The results? Seattle has the 6th-best offense in the NFL over that span by EPA per play, and the 3rd-best passing offense. They have won three straight. And Mike Macdonald is moonwalking in locker rooms where music blasts and players dance.
Winning football games is hard. You can win with talent, coaching, or luck. What you can’t do is win by cosplaying some other team identity. Seattle experienced that last season when Ryan Grubb went rogue and the Seahawks coaching staff was not in alignment. The locker room was not in complete alignment, either. You have no chance of sustained success if you are not at least working together toward a shared vision. There still may be more talented teams or better game plans or rough matchups that lead to a loss. This Seattle team should never lose again by being an anathema to themselves.
This game started so well. Seattle controlled the Cardinals on offense and put together some beautiful drives against a stout Arizona defense. The domination was so complete that even when they were forcing turnovers on their own players, it still felt like a win was certain.
A bad holding call on what should have been a game-sealing touchdown, combined with a tiring defense, and a missed field goal, turned a laugher into a nail-biter.
The Cardinals made big plays against both Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen to pull even. It was perhaps fitting that an error by the home team opened the door to a game-winning drive orchestrated by Darnold, Kubiak, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Jason Meyers made a kick from almost the same distance he had already missed from, and some combination of elation and relief filled the hearts of every Seahawks fan, player, and coach.
Seattle is now 3-1, with a road division win, and a mini-bye week where they get to rest this weekend ahead of their big home game against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who will play a physical game against the Eagles this weekend before flying across the country to face the Seahawks.
This was not the game to frame. The Seahawks forced a fumble on their own player after an interception. They got a taunting penalty that cost them points. They blew a big lead. They missed a field goal. They dropped another interception.
Ask the 2016 Seahawks if they would have taken a flawed victory instead of their 6-6 tie in Arizona. Ask the 2024 Seahawks if they would have taken an ugly win over the Rams last year when they had multiple red zone turnovers, a missed extra point, and other mistakes. Ask the Cardinals if they would have apologized for stealing that game.
You take every win.
Doing it on the road, on a short week, against a division foe who was desperate to avoid falling to 0-2 in the NFC West, makes this a game where style points matter less.
What does matter is that Seattle looked like the far superior team on both sides of the ball for most of the game. The Seahawks put up more yards against the Cardinals defense than any opponent this season. They held Arizona to their fewest yards on the year. They sacked Kyler Murray six times against an offense line that came into the game ranked as the 2nd-best pass protection group in the NFL. They rushed for 155 yards against a run defense that ranked 4th in rushing yards allowed before this game. They converted 46% of their 3rd downs against a team that had been ranked 3rd in 3rd down defense. They converted 2 of 3 red zone chances (and should have been 3 of 3) against the 4th-best red zone defense.
They did enough. For now.
The game Seattle played Thursday night won’t beat a team with a better quarterback, better coaching, and better weapons. That team is coming to town next Sunday.
Closing football games is an art, and the Seahawks have shown promise on offense and some concerning signs on defense.
Twice, the Seahawks have have had the football either tied or trailing late in the game. Twice, Darnold and the offense moved the ball into position to win the game. Yes, the first game ended with a fumble, but the drive to get there was noteworthy given Darnold led the entire NFL in passer rating in close and late situations (within 8 points and less than 5 mins remaining) last season. He looks comfortable and courageous in those moments. His offense looks the same way.
This young offensive line has some struggles. They also are showing poise and promise. We have not seen the killer holding call or false start. The pass protection has been mostly quite good even though defenses know they can attack the passer in those situations. Kubiak has dialed up good plays and JSN has been a velvet dagger. Nobody is killing people as smoothly and silently as Smith-Njigba this season.
That this offense is operating so efficiently without the benefit of a reliable run game is encouraging and not something I expected.
The Seahawks are 25th in EPA/rush and 22nd in rushing success rate. Yet, they are averaging 32.6 points per game the last three weeks. That is happening because this is one of the best early down passing offenses in football. Seattle is 5th in the NFL in converted early downs (1st and 2nd down) into first downs, doing it 23.7% of the time. They are 4th in EPA/dropback and success rate on early down passes. That rises to 3rd-best if you toss out the anomalous Week 1 game plan.
That early down success is happening because they are forcing teams into run heavy personnel packages with either a fullback or two tight ends, and then exploiting mismatches. They are the most explosive passing offense in football. No receiver has more 16+ yard receptions than JSN (10).
They have also started to add some explosive rushes to the mix. Only Derrick Henry has more 20+ yard rushes on the year (4) than Ken Walker III (3). Walker, though, also has a 20+ yard reception, which pulls him into a tie with Henry for most explosive plays by a running back so far this year.
It will take time for the run game to become more efficient. It may not happen. I’m betting it will. Adding a quality run game to this passing attack could raise this offense into a Top 10 unit that can give any defense headaches. That’s the mission, and not one many thought was a realistic goal before the season began.
Defensively, they have been steady and stout in every game. Their mission is to become a group that can close out a game.
That requires having players who rise to the occasion and make impact plays at the moment of truth. Too often, those have gone the wrong way. Woolen and Witherspoon both gave up plays that could have lost the game. It is understandable that many are going to want to see Woolen benched. That might happen. Derion Kendrick sitting on the sidelines had to get Macdonald’s attention.
I will not be writing off Woolen. He remains the most talented corner on this roster, and in the league. He is clearly struggling with confidence in playing the football. This team will be better if the coaching staff can help him with that versus giving up on him.
The pass rush also has to get home in these situations and Macdonald has to dial up the correct pressures and plays. This is a defense full of good players. A key aspect of becoming great is finding guys who will finish games.
Seattle now has an extended break to rest and recuperate. Nick Emmanwori should be set to return when practice resumes. Ailing Abe Lucas and Anthony Bradford could benefit from some time to heal. We will find out about DeMarcus Lawrence and others. It will also give time for the coaching staff to self-scout and make some adjustments. We may notice steps forward in the run game and some new wrinkles on both sides of the ball.
All possibilities remain open for this team because they won this game. Now, we see if they can transform from good-to-great. Meaningful football is back on the menu in Seattle.
Two teams desperate for a division win will clash in Glendale Thursday night as the Seahawks travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals. Both squads lost their first divisional game to the 49ers. Both were close losses that easily could have, and probably should have, gone the other way. Arizona was plagued by dropped passes and some overly conservative play calling. Their offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, has come under fire for what some perceive to be a predictable and feckless offense. Highly touted second year receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., dropped two critical passes in the game. Quarterback Kyler Murray tried to put the team on his back with some nice throws and scrambles out of the pocket, but once again, could not lift his team to victory in a close game. Emotional leader and tone setter, James Conner, was lost for the season after a gruesome lower leg injury.
Injuries have piled up for the Cardinals. Their only wins are close games against the Saints and Panthers. The Seahawks are coming off two convincing wins over the Steelers and Saints, and may be getting healthier going into this game. On the surface, this seems like a clear win for the Seattle.
Be careful about assuming anything about a road game against a divisional opponent on Thursday night. This Cardinals defense has been rugged. They have not surrendered more than 22 points in a game to this point, and held two opponents to 16 points or fewer. Calais Campbell is still a huge problem on the defensive line, and free agent addition, Josh Sweat, can be a handful.
Seattle has been lifted by some amazing special team play the last two weeks. It is unlikely the team can expect a third straight game with a special teams touchdown. The offense will have to score against this defense, and the defense will need to contain a scrambling quarterback, which they have struggled to do so far this season.
The Vegas line on this game has shifted from a 2.5 point Cardinals favorite to 1.5 points in favor of the Seahawks. Seattle should be favored to win. Both teams need this game. It should be a dogfight.
Lineup notesThe Cardinals will turn to second-year running back, Trey Benson, with James Conner out. Benson has 65% of his rushing yards on two carries (52 and 29 yards). He is not the physical runner inside the tackles that Conner was. Emari Demercado will get more carries as the backup.
The offensive line has also had some health issues as LT Paris Johnson Jr. missed the game on Sunday and may have trouble making it back this week. Veteran tackle Kelvin Beachum replaced Johnson Jr.. Isaiah Adams has been starting in place of Will Hernandez, and has struggled.
The cornerback room has been decimated. Two veteran starters from last season, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas, were lost for the season before the first week. Then they lost their best corner in Garret Williams in the second game, along with promising rookie Will Johnson. Max Melton was also hurt, but came back to play against the 49ers. It has forced rookie Denzel Burke into the lineup and he’s performed pretty well. Kei’Trel Clark has been the other player to step into the lineup, and has also been promising. What should be a disaster, has been serviceable.
For Seattle, it will be a question of whether guys they held out against the Saints will be ready to go for a Thursday game. Julian Love, Nick Emmanwori, Devon Witherspoon, and Zach Charbonnet are all starters who were inactive Sunday but may be ready for this game. How the team would handle the return of Witherspoon is interesting considering how well Derion Kendrick has played. There is also a question that has not been answered about how Josh Jobe’s performance would impact Riq Woolen’s snaps once Witherspoon is playing. Emmanowori returning would simply mean D’Anthony Bell would be either inactive on the practice squad or on the bench.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
It’s been a while since the Seahawks were the top team in DVOA after three weeks. They were 3rd last season when going in to face Detroit, but that felt artificially elevated by the QBs they faced in the first three games. The ensuing few weeks proved they were anything but a Top 5 team. This ranking feels a little different given they played the undefeated 49ers and the 2-1 Steelers. Still, the Steelers and Saints defense have undeniable weak spots, as do both offenses.
Arizona does not appear capable of the type of overpowering play Seattle experienced in Detroit at this time last season. Still, this is probably the most solid combination of offense and defense the Seahawks have played since Week 1.
The biggest mismatch by DVOA is the Cardinals run game against the Seahawks run defense. The loss of Conner only makes that a bigger question mark for Arizona. The Cardinals run defense trumps the Seahawks run offense, but Seattle has found ways to be productive in spite of a poor run game to this point.
Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cardinals key advantages on defenseThe Seahawks have faced the second-highest stacked box rate (37.5%) in the NFL. Arizona has only played a stacked box on 18% of their defensive snaps (20th in the NFL). Part of why Seattle has faced that many extra defenders near the line of scrimmage is their use of 21 and 12 personnel packages with a fullback that dictates the defense to bring an extra linebacker on the field or walk a safety down. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals resist that and put extra pressure on their stout defensive line and quality safety group to hold up.
The 49ers, for example, have one of the lowest stacked box rates in the NFL (13%), but played a stacked box against Seattle 23% of the time. Arizona could do the same, but that will leave more pressure on their inexperienced cornerback room against the most explosive passing offense in the league.
Campbell is capable, even at his age, of being a destructive force against the run all on his own. Dante Stills was playing well against the run, but has struggled recently. Dalvin Tomlinson is an okay run plugger in the middle.
Budda Baker continues to be their best playmaker, but linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. had a great game against the 49ers, and can be a force as a blitzer. Safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson has been a good safety to add to Baker and Jalen Thompson. This is the best safety group Seattle will have faced to this point, which could limit explosives.
Despite their paltry sack numbers, the pass rush has been improved since last season. Arizona has generated 27 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds), tied for 2nd-most in the NFL. Sweat is tied for 3rd-most quick pressures (8).
Seahawks key advantages on offenseDon’t look now, but the Seahawks have that mythical “average offensive line” in pass protection fans have been pining after for a decade. Seattle entered last week with the 32nd ranked pass pro by ESPN’s pass block win rate. They did so well against the Saints, that ranking rose to 20th. PFF ranks them as 16th in pass blocking. They are 6th in sack rate and 9th in pressure rate, which is far from average. All of that has been aided by a decisive Sam Darnold, who is also now the top-graded passer in the NFL by PFF.
They also have become the most explosive pass offense in football. They rank 2nd in explosive passes, but they are doing that with the 3rd-lowest number of pass attempts, which makes their explosive pass rate off the charts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is blossoming into one of the best receivers in football. Tory Horton Jr. is a precocious playmaking rookie. Cooper Kupp has shown he is a viable contributor.
All of that will have the Cardinals attention. They will have to be focused on leaving more guys in coverage to help their corners and limit explosives. Other teams likely needed to see the passing offense do it again before adjusting their game plans. Seattle has put enough good on film in the pass game and bad on film in the run game to likely lead to a different approach by the Cardinals.
Seattle facing a lighter box has the chance to get right on the ground. This could be the game where Walker and Charbonnet both produce. Arizona has been very tough to run on, holding their last two opponents under 75 yards rushing. The potential absence of Robbie Ouzts could loom large. Brady Russell is a different type of player.
Darnold has feasted on split safety coverages, and that’s what the Cardinals like to play.
Sam Darnold has faced split-safety coverage on just 32.1% of his dropbacks (5th-lowest). He has a league-best 86.4% completion rate and 11.5 YPA against those looks.
The Cardinals play split-safety on 49.7% of dropbacks (6th-highest).
Key schematic aspect to this game. pic.twitter.com/M5Mtmcoequ
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) September 23, 2025
Arizona is 23rd in EPA per dropback in defending play action and 19th when opponents are under center. That bodes well for Seattle.
Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Cardinals key advantages on offenseKyler Murray has played better than the offensive numbers reflect. His receivers have dropped some passes, and his run game has been nonexistent, forcing him to carry the load via scrambling. He has enjoyed some of the best pass protection in the league.
Arizona ranks 2nd in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 4th in PFF’s pass blocking grade. The run blocking has returned starkly contrasting grades. ESPN has their run block win rate as 9th-best, while PFF has their run blocking as 28th overall. Given, Conner was averaging 3.0 yards per run and Benson was averaging 2.3 YPC outside of his two explosives, the PFF grade might be closer to accurate.
Benson can bring the explosive element that Conner was less capable of producing. He is more of an outside runner, which will be interesting to see with the more duo-focused interior run scheme the Cardinals tend to run.
The biggest issue for Seattle might be Murray’s escapability and the Seahawks challenges in containing QBs in the pocket so far this season. Even Aaron Rodgers was escaping.
A player like Murray is a known escape artist, so Seattle will do less stunt and twists that can create gaps QBs run through. The Seahawks did an excellent job of this last season, so there’s no reason to think they can’t repeat the feat this time.
Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in football, and was productive against Seattle last season. Tyrice Knight has struggled in coverage so far, allowing the 4th-most yards per coverage snap among linebackers in the NFL. Seattle may employ more Drake Thomas if McBride becomes an issue.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle may have the best defensive line in football. They need to do a better job of getting the quarterback on the ground, but there is no weak link. Every part of an offense’s blocking scheme is going to be challenged, and that’s not even bringing up the potential return of Witherspoon and Emmanwori, who can create chaos with their blitzes.
Whether it is a positive or a negative to get Emmanwori back is impossible to say until he plays more than the handful of snaps he played in the opener. He could be a major impact player or could make rookie mistakes in coverage.
Witherspoon coming back will lead to some interesting decisions with Kendrick, and possibly Woolen. Love is such a huge part of this defense, he may be the most important guy to return if he is able.
There are no clear weak spots on this defense at any level. They excel against the run, can pressure with four players, and cover. Macdonald has reduced his already low blitz rate to help protect his injured secondary but that could change if those guys return.
Uchenna Nwosu took a nice step forward in his second game, and could be ready to contribute.
Seattle created two turnovers in their first two games, and should have had at least two against the Saints. Arizona only has one turnover on the season.
When teams have reached the red zone against the Seahawks, they have had to settle for field goals. They have the 3rd-ranked red zone defense and Arizona has the 19th-ranked red zone offense. They were highly reliant on Conner and their run game down there. That will have to change with his absence.
Special Teams
No special teams unit has made a bigger contribution to their team through three weeks. They have made an impact play every game. Arizona’s kicker has already missed a few kicks. The Cardinals will have to be careful with the explosive Seahawks return game.
Key to a Cardinals winArizona has to find rhythm in the passing game, and find ways to get Murray out of the pocket to create some explosive runs. They have to protect the football and stop the run with a light box.
Key to a Seahawks winGetting an early lead could go a long way toward discouraging a team that is already facing a lot of doubts from fans about their direction, and has lost their emotional leader. There will be a ton of Seahawks fans, as always, and it could quickly turn into an onslaught if Arizona doesn’t stay close early. The Cardinals scored first last season in Arizona, and two Murray interceptions turned the tide. Expect a bigger dogfight this season.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating21 Votes4.7The mist fell gently, dampening the ground and dulling the shuffling sounds of vendors setting up for game day. Gray skies contrasted sharply with the neon pink of the T-Mobile Park sign. People walked slowly, bundled up for the first time in weeks, sipping coffee to chase away the drowsy pull of an early morning. It was a familiar scene, but something felt different. Both stadiums were empty, and yet, there was an energy pulsing through SoDo. It was as if the ballpark knew the Mariners had won in a dramatic fashion the night before, and the football field knew what was to come. These two slumbering giants, who have been home to some of the most middling teams, were rousing themselves for a return to purpose. There have been times when the Seahawks were the best team in the NFL. There have been times when the Mariners were the best or most entertaining team in MLB. There has never been a time when both were good in unison. This city is about to explode in support of their rising Mariners for what could be a historic postseason. The Seahawks stepped up to the plate and belted a home run of their own. Clear your calendars. You are not going to want to miss what’s coming.
Two years ago, fans packed Lumen Field to watch the Seahawks fight for a playoff spot against Mason Rudolph and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They were bullied on their home field, giving up 468 yards, including 202 yards rushing, and losing 30-23. Last year, the New York Giants came to town winless and without the services of their dynamic rookie receiver, Malik Nabers. Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll embarrassed the Seahawks on their home field. Two weeks ago, the hated 49ers strolled into Lumen Field and lost a number of their key players to injuries. Seattle made a series of fatal mistakes that ultimately cost them their home opener.
It was reasonable to wonder why this season would be any different. Maybe the Seahawks would be more rugged, but would they really rise to relevance with Sam Darnold at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, and rookies sprinkled all over the lineup? Through three weeks of the season, no team has been more complete than the Seattle Seahawks.
They rank 1st in the NFL in DVOA, a measure of overall team efficiency. They rank 6th in offensive DVOA, 5th in defensive DVOA, and 1st in special teams. They rank 2nd in point differential, 5th in points per game, and 2nd in points allowed. They have scored more touchdowns on special teams the past two weeks than entire offenses scored this week. Their quarterback ranks 2nd in the NFL in success rate, a measure of how many yards are being gained with each throw compared to what is needed for a first down. Their defense is 4th in pressure rate, 2nd in EPA per rush, and 2nd in interceptions per opponent dropback. The Seahawks offensive line has allowed just 3 sacks (their fewest through 3 games of a season since 1997), which is tied for 2nd-fewest in the NFL, and has only one penalty for holding.
You will hear every analyst downplay what Seattle did to a hapless and winless Saints team. Those doubts will likely continue even if Seattle beats the Cardinals in Arizona, and an injured Bucs team the following Sunday. Let them.
Those of us who have witnessed the nauseating performances by the Seahawks against terrible opponents for the last decade understand the difference between squeaking by Spencer Rattler and going full Hulk versus Loki on them. We also have the capacity to recognize both the 49ers and the Cardinals were in dogfights with this same Saints team down to the final possession.
Nobody is foolish enough to crown the Seahawks as Super Bowl favorites after trouncing New Orleans at home. It was hard to tell at times where to give the Seahawks credit and where to just wince at the Saints performance. They did not look like a team that flew in early to Seattle and practiced at Husky Stadium to acclimate to the time zone, which they did.
The disparity was most evident on special teams, where Jay Harbaugh’s unit continued a torrid start to the season. Tory Horton Jr.’s 95-yard punt return for touchdown, followed by crunching kick coverage, and then the most oddly unblocked punt block you’ll ever see, made for a full season of special team’s highlights in the span of a few minutes. This, after blocking a field goal in the first game, and scoring a pivotal touchdown in the win over the Steelers, should have many Seahawks fans recanting their criticisms of Harbaugh after some rocky moments last year.
The Seahawks blocking on every return was sublime. Horton nearly had another huge punt return where every Saints was perfectly sealed, but his momentum carried him out of bounds. Dareke Young almost broke a kickoff return, but had to settle for 60 yards.
Seattle’s offense started the second straight game with an opening drive touchdown after the defense provided great field position by stopping the Saints on 4th down near midfield. They were bailed out by a Saints personal foul penalty to extend the drive, but deserve credit for taking advantage of the mistake and getting seven points instead of three.
The Seahawks scored touchdowns on their first three drives. None of them were longer than 55 yards, and two were less than 40 yards. Meanwhile, the Saints offense was held to 24 yards, 5 yards, and -2 yards on their first three drives. That is what Macdonald envisions when he talks about complimentary football.
Each unit was doing their job. None were being carried by the other.
Seattle’s offense was not perfectly efficient. They managed less than 10 yards rushing in the first half, and finished averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. The Seahawks defense was not perfect either. They allowed Rattler and the Saints passing game a 50% success rate through the air. As good as Seattle’s defense has been, there is room for growth in defending the pass. They rank 20th in dropback success rate on the season (47.3%).
Despite their strong pressure rate, they are still not getting the quarterback on the ground often enough, and are allowing players to escape the pocket to extend plays. It is good news that teams are worried enough about the Seahawks pass rush to rely heavily on quick passing (under 2.5 seconds). It’s not great that they are still finding some success. The Saints had the 8th-best EPA/dropback in the NFL this week on quick throws.
Coby Bryant had at least two chances to drop a Saints player in the backfield on quick screens, but failed to get the player down. Good that he diagnosed the play. Not good that he missed the tackles.
When Macdonald and the players talk about having room to improve, these are the types of areas they are talking about.
The goal is no longer to demonstrate Macdonald can carry his defensive success to a new team as a head coach or to prove this group can sustain the Top 5 play they achieved over the last half of the 2024 season. The goal is to be the best defense in football, a championship level defense. The biggest gap to getting there right now is the pass rush getting to the quarterback.
Offensively, the team is in a fascinating place. Darnold has been fantastic. He has exceeded the most optimistic projections of what he would look like after leaving the cozy confines of Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota offense. He’s been decisive without being rushed. He’s been accurate to all areas of the field. He’s managed to maintain his place as an explosive passer while dramatically reducing his time to throw. He almost had a perfect day on Sunday, with a 98.0 QBR (on a scale of 0-100). He now sits between Matt Stafford and Dak Prescott for QBR on the year. His passer rating of 104.7 is just behind Justin Herbert’s 105.5 for 6th overall.
He still has to prove himself in big games against great teams, but the evidence is mounting that he is much more than a bridge quarterback. Ironically, every talking head outside Seattle considered it great news that the Seahawks could get out of his contract after one year. Those same folks will soon be talking about the coup of signing a young franchise quarterback for a below-market contract.
Kubiak deserves kudos for continuing to scheme players open and crafting the offense to Darnold’s strengths. The Seahawks passing game has been one of the most efficient in football. One of the biggest questions headed into the season was whether the receiver room was dynamic enough to create explosive plays. Critics often cited the loss of D.K. Metcalf as a void they could not fill. Well, through three weeks, the Seahawks have the most explosive passing offense in the NFL. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads all receivers is explosive receptions. He also leads the NFL in 40+ yard receptions with three. Metcalf has none.
Maybe more surprising is that Cooper Kupp has more explosive catches (5) than Metcalf (3). Or maybe that A.J. Barner only has one fewer than Metcalf despite being targeted only 6 times on the season.
Barner, by the way, had the best catch of the day on a diving grab for 23 yards.
That Kubiak and Darnold are making this passing game hum without the benefit of a good run game is by far the most pleasant surprise of the season. In the multiverse of possibilities I could envision for this team, the one where the passing game carried the offense was the least probable.
By itself, that already raises the ceiling for this team. Pass efficiency is usually the most stable way to have a productive offense week-to-week. It tends to be more reliable than a run game or a good defense. Much of the credit goes to Smith-Njigba, Darnold, and Kubiak. Another healthy dose goes to John Benton and the offensive line.
The Seahawks rank 9th in the NFL in pressure rate allowed to opponents. More encouraging is that rises to 8th in the NFL when the offense is in shotgun, where the team is far more likely to pass the ball and defenses know to rush the passer.
Again, part of that credit goes to Darnold and Kubiak for getting the ball out quickly, but that’s the point. Where Seattle was riddled with dysfunction on offense the past decade with no commitment to the run game or play action or getting the ball out quickly, the offensive line was left to bake in the sun and was never talented enough to survive. Now, the parts are working together to build a machine that has a chance to gain momentum.
The problems in the run game are real. The Seahawks are seeing stacked boxes (8+ defenders near the line of scrimmage) more than all but one team in the NFL. Their 37.5% rate is second only to the Chargers 39.2% rate. That means one of two things is true: the desire to shut down the run is opening the pass game even without rushing success or the run game is going to start seeing more success now that defenses have to account for a high performance pass attack.
Keep in mind that run blocking is also far more complex than pass protection, requiring many more moving parts to work in unison. This offensive line is young and still adapting to each other. There is every reason to believe they will be better as the season wears on.
The emergence of Horton and credibility of Kupp have been exactly what the doctor ordered. Elijah Arroyo and Barner are weapons that should continue to sharpen. Ken Walker is running hard and has been more decisive than years past.
It’s not out of the question that this could wind up being a Top 10 offense in the league. To do that, they will need to prove themselves against tougher competition. The Cardinals have the 13th-ranked DVOA defense. Tampa Bay has the 11th. Jacksonville has the 4th. Atlanta has the 9th. Not to mention the Rams (12th) and the 49ers (6th).
Finding a way to win in Arizona on a short week and then getting a mini-bye before the Bucs come to town would set Seattle up for a strong run. They may get back Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, and Nick Emmanwori this week. Even if they do not, those guys are close to returning and their replacements have played excellent football. Derion Kendrick, in particular, is going to be hard to pull off the field once Witherspoon returns. Where there was once some concern about cornerback depth, now the team feels flush. The pickup of Kendrick after the Rams cut waived him could go down as John Schneider’s latest coup.
The vibes are good around this team. It is hard not to stare backwards at that season opening loss and not wonder what could have been. Credit to Macdonald and the team for flushing that game and quickly recapturing the style of play they worked so hard to achieve all offseason. The Seahawks do not yet look like the best team in the NFL, the NFC, or even their own division. They do look like a team that is already very good in all phases, with reasons to think they will get better. We have not seen the best of these Seahawks. They will continue to be slept on. Sunday was the start of the awaking.
It would be easy for Seahawks fans to breathe a sigh of relief when looking at the schedule and seeing the winless New Orleans Saints coming to town after two tough games against the 49ers and Steelers. That would be unwise. Fans have seen the Seahawks blow home games to teams worse than this Saints squad. New Orleans scored more points and gained more yards against the 49ers defense than Seattle. They had the ball with a chance to win on the final possession, but their quarterback had the ball knocked out of his hands to end the game. Sound familiar?
The Saints have little hope of a meaningful season. It is still early enough that Seattle will get full effort from players and a strong desire to avoid an 0-3 start. Their second year quarterback, Spencer Rattler, has been better than most expected so far. He made a number of good throws against the 49ers, and has more touchdown passes than Sam Darnold without throwing an interception. He is mobile and resourceful, not unlike the quarterback who gave Seattle fits in the first game of the year.
This is no juggernaut, however, coming into Lumen Field. The Saints are not close to as talented as the Seahawks, and have some weaknesses that Seattle should be able to exploit.
Mike Macdonald and his players desperately want to win a game at home. Injuries could be a wildcard as the Seahawks coach alluded to some new names being added to the injury report on Wednesday. Barring crucial missing players, Seattle is deservedly a heavy favorite in this one.
Lineup notesThere are not many big injury absences for the Saints. Chase Young has missed the first two weeks of the season with a calf injury. There is no word yet on whether he will return for this game. They did lose starting safety Julian Blackmon in the first game against the Cardinals. He is out for the year, and that has forced Jonas Sanker into the lineup.
Seattle will be monitoring Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori to see if either or both players can make it back on the field after missing week two.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
Keep in mind that DVOA is a little less reliable with a small sample size of two weeks, especially since opponent adjustments don’t really kick in for a week or two. Still, it is worth noting that the area where Seattle and New Orleans are evenly matched is the Seahawks rushing offense versus the Saints rushing defense. Seattle could find trouble if they get too stubborn about running the football instead of exploiting advantages through the air.
Seahawks Offense vs Saints Defense
Saints key advantages on defenseDemario Davis is still one of the best inside linebackers in the NFL, especially against the run. He is not Fred Warner, but he is elite (90.3 PFF grade, 92.4 vs the run). Cam Jordan is the name people know on the defensive line, but Carl Granderson is the one to watch. Granderson caused the 49ers a lot of trouble last week, and already has 3.5 sacks. Athletic interior linemen, Bryan Bresee, can get into the backfield as well but is not as good at making the play once he arrives.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseThe Saints secondary is a question mark. They enter this game with the highest Wide Open Coverage Rate in the NFL at 29.4%, per FTNFantasy.com. That is defined as plays where a receiver has at least 5 yards of separation from the nearest defender. They also play Cover 0 (no deep safeties) at the 3rd highest rate in the league so far. Seattle has only two pass attempts against that look this year and it’s been feast or famine. One pass came on the tipped interception that nearly cost the Seahawks the game against the Steelers. The other came on the 43-yard strike to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that helped seal the win.
There has been some boom or bust for the Saints defense as well. They have a high sack rate, but also have the 7th-highest rate of allowing opponents a clean pocket to operate from (74%). They have been great against play action so far (-0.53 EPA/dropback, 4th-best in the NFL), but awful when there is no play action (+0.22 EPA/dropback, 28th).
This is the least talented defense the Seahawks have faced so far this season. However, it is probably performing better than the Steelers unit. They can be undisciplined, as they have surrendered the 2nd-most first downs via penalty in the league.
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks pass catchers will need to build on their performance against the Steelers to exploit the weaknesses in coverage. Watch out for Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner to have larger roles against a Saints team that does not have great coverage linebackers or safeties.
Seattle has been one of the most explosive passing teams in the NFL. That could spell trouble for the Saints.
One other tidbit worth noting is that the Saints defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in defending runs outside the tackles, yielding 5.5 yards per tote. They are also 25th in the NFL in yards allowed before contact (1.99 per rush) on those outside runs, and 19th on all runs (1.27 per rush). That could mean good things for Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet and crew.
Saints Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Saints key advantages on offenseRattler has been very good so far. He has shown poise and accuracy and the ability to make plays off script while breaking the pocket. He is also a pretty decent runner. He had a much better performance against a tough 49ers defense (3 TD, 0 INT, 118.1 passer rating) than Darnold.
He has weapons in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and tight end Juwan Johnson. Even Brandin Cooks and Devaughn Vele are viable options. The running game features a still-dangerous Alvin Kamara, who put up 99 tough yards against the San Francisco defense that suffocated the Seattle run game.
New head coach, Kellen Moore, had a similar start to the year as Klint Kubiak. He used play-action at near the lowest rate in the NFL in Week 1, before using it 33% of the time against the 49ers. Rattler completed 7 of those passes for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Erik McCoy is one of the better centers in the league.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseMcCoy is the lone highlight on an offensive line that is struggling. Both tackles are yielding pressure at high rates. Rookie Kelvin Banks Jr. has given up 8 pressures and second-year player Taliese Fuaga has given up 10. He has the same pass block efficiency as Braxton Jones of the Steelers, who has been a turnstile.
This will be the first road game for the Saints, and their ability to operate efficiently on the road could hamper their chances. They will undoubtedly try to reduce the pressure on the line and the quarterback by running the ball effectively. To this point, no team has done that against the Seahawks front seven.
As good as Kamara is as a runner, he has been a disaster in blitz pickup. Seattle has not blitzed often, but that might change this week to test this young line and quarterback in a hostile environment.
Much has been made of the Seahawks pass rush, which is near the league leaders in pressure rate, but the coverage may be more deserving of attention. They have the second-best Tight Coverage Rate in the NFL , behind only the Eagles, per FTNFantasy.com. They rank 9th in average separation, according to NextGenStats. No receiver had more than 22 yards against the Seahawks in Week 2. The bulk of the yards Ricky Pearsall managed in Week 1 came on misjudging a ball in the air, as opposed to getting beat.
This quality coverage has allowed the pass rush more time to get home. This would be a great week to flip the script and have the pass rush get some quicker wins to make life easier for the secondary. That will mean containing Rattler better than the Seahawks were able to do against Purdy or even Rodgers. Both QBs escaped pressure too often.
Should Emmanwori play, his matchup with Johnson could be a fascinating watch.
Josh Jobe has been locking down everyone he’s faced, allowing a passer rating of 0.0 when targeted. Olave is a great route runner. Shaheed is one of the better deep threats in the league. Look for Moore to try to find ways to test Jobe’s speed against Shaheed.
Special Teams
The Saints special teams have not been very good, but watch out for Shaheed as a punt returner. Kicker Blake Grupe has had a rough start, missing two kicks under 50 yards. The Seahawks special teams have made game-changing plays in each of the first two weeks. Few teams have had a bigger impact from their special teams than what Seattle has produced.
Key to a Saints winAvoiding self-inflicted mistakes like penalties and dropped passes would go a long way toward giving the Saints a fighting chance in this game. They need their offensive line to hold up better than it has so far, which is a big ask in their first road game against this defensive front and scheme. Failing all that, they need Rattler to have a special game and Shaheed to create at least one explosive play.
Key to a Seahawks winQuick pressure and solid run defense would make this game very tough for the Saints to win. New Orleans has rushed for over 100 yards in both games, which has reduced the burden on their young quarterback and offensive line. Seattle has been stout against the run, but has had some issues with missed tackles, and Kamara will make even the best defenders look foolish. This would be an ideal game for the Seahawks edge players to register their first sack of the season.
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Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating20 Votes4.2Week one is a known liar in the NFL. The Seahawks are hoping week two is the truth. Just a few days removed from a gut punch home loss to the rival 49ers, Mike Macdonald and his team flew across the country and put on a performance in Pittsburgh that would make Mike Holmgren and and Matt Hasselbeck smile. Known as the Stealers by many Seahawks fan for their controversial Super Bowl victory to end the 2005 season, the Steel City has rarely been a hospitable place for Seattle or any visiting teams. Since the year 2000, just three teams have won more games at home than the Steelers (140). The Seahawks had played just four times in Pittsburgh over the last 25 years, and had lost three. Seattle had been shutout only 4 times in 30 years, and two of them came in Pittsburgh. It was looking like things may go the home team’s way again when a series of Seahawks mistakes helped lift the Steelers to a 14-7 halftime lead despite only gaining 69 yards. All three phases clicked in the second half as they outscored Pittsburgh 24-3 to close the game and left DK Metcalf, Aaron Rodgers and Steelers fans exiting Arcisure Stadium empty handed.
This was a game that did not equal the conference and divisional matchup against the 49ers in terms of seeding and possible tiebreakers. It did, however, go a long way toward flushing that loss from their system. Seattle was a larger underdog in this game, and were playing without Devon Witherspoon. The Steelers were flying high after putting up 34 points on the road with their ancient quarterback tossing four touchdowns. Riq Woolen had been admonished by coaches, and Tyrice Knight was at risk of losing his job to Drake Thomas. Klint Kubiak had befuddled everyone with his game plan. Ken Walker III looked like he may no longer be the starter in the backfield. Cooper Kupp looked washed. Tory Horton Jr. was invisible. Sam Darnold and Abe Lucas had a forgettable end to the game.
What a difference a week makes.
Kubiak and Darnold had the Seattle offense cooking from the start in this one. They scored the Seahawks first opening drive TD since 2023, a span of 23 games. The drive included first down conversions on 3rd and 6 and 3rd and 10 to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and was capped by a 21-yard touchdown pass to Horton on a play action pass from under center. It was also the first catch of Horton’s NFL career.
That would be the only points for Seattle in the half. A missed 36-yard field goal by Jason Meyers, two interceptions by Darnold, and a missed interception by substitute nickel corner, Derion Kendrick, turned what should have been a comfortable halftime lead into a deficit.
The most egregious error in the half may have been Kubiak’s decision to eschew the tush push with A.J. Barner that had worked both times it had been used this season, and decide to go with a slow developing play action pass that was blown up by Cam Heyward, and resulting in an interception that nearly cost Seattle the game.
This felt like the worst type of overthinking by the coaching staff. The whole point of implementing a play like the tush push is to have a reliable solution for short yardage situations. The play had succeeded against the stout 49ers front and the Steelers earlier. Why go away from it?
To then call a pass play made the decision even more bewildering. That’s the kind of play call that makes sense when you have earned the reputation of a hard-nosed running team that a defense has to sell out to stop in short yardage. Seattle has not even proven that to themselves, let alone opponents.
There was another poor coaching decision later in the game when the Seahawks had a 3rd and 10 at their own 20-yard line. Macdonald called a timeout with the play clock about to hit zero. The chances of conversion there were low, and burning a timeout there was pointless. It came back to burn them when they had a far more consequential 3rd and 6 in Steelers territory with time again running low on the play clock. They did not call for time there and the offense rushed to get off the snap, only to have Darnold throw to nobody as the players were not on the same page.
These are self-inflicted wounds that are simple process fixes. The Eagles don’t have to think about what they want to do on 4th and 1. Seattle shouldn’t either, until opponents give them a reason to do so.
Fortunately, the team made enough plays with the Steelers making some errors of their own, to dominate the second half.
Seattle scored a touchdown on their first possession of the second half on a drive that was a shining example of the team they want to be. Walker gashed the Steelers for runs of 9, 15, and a pair of 5 yarders. The ball was spread around to three different targets, none of which were Smith-Njigba. The young tight ends got involved with Elijah Arroyo making a catch and Barner punctuating the drive with a touchdown. They were under center for 6 of the 9 plays, with play action utilized effectively. Darnold was 4-4 on the 4 passes, mixed nicely with the 5 running plays.
Barner continues to be a red zone weapon. He now has 5 touchdown catches in his short career, which matches the total from his entire 45-game college career. It also now puts him in a tie with Brock Bowers for most TD catches by a TE in the 2024 draft class. Bowers has been targeted 161 times. Barner has been targeted 43 times.
Kupp was a factor throughout the day. Not only did he finish with 7 catches and 90 yards, but 42 of the yards came after the catch. The whispers were becoming shouts that he was no longer a viable NFL receiver. This performance shouted back.
All of this was made possible by an offensive line that took another step forward. Gone were the artificially quick passes that made up over half the throws by Darnold a week earlier. There were longer developing play action passes and straight dropbacks, and the line provided solid protection on the day. A few blitzes got home, but the Seahawks pass protection of the previous decade had trouble blocking 3-4 defenders, so this was still a noticeable improvement.
Abe Lucas appeared to have a particularly strong game, especially in run blocking. Charles Cross had one of the best blocks of the day on a nondescript 5-yard run that had him drive-blocking his man onto his back seven yards downfield. Robbie Ouzts made his presence felt, getting a ton of snaps, often lined up as a tight end. He had a gorgeous pancake block to help spring Walker on his longest run of the day.
Zach Charbonnet and Walker did they best Freaky Friday rendition as they switched places in what seems to be an arrangement where only one back can be productive during a game. Watch out if the Seahawks can actually get both of these guys cooking at the same time.
Walker was finally back to his explosive self. This is a guy who has run behind such bad blocking, it was hard to remember just how good he was as a rookie. He was arguably the most dangerous offensive weapon on the field for Seattle, which is how it should look if things are going well.
This is a player who should be good for a 100+ scrimmage yards every single week. He is too talented and too dangerous to be the afterthought he had started to become. It was fitting that he put an exclamation point on the game by taking a toss play to the left on 3rd and goal from the 19 yard line and ran it in for a touchdown. He becomes the first player in NFL history to score a touchdown on a run of 19+ yards on 3rd or 4th and goal.
He is capable of more. So is this running game.
The man who has earned The Most Dangerous Weapon moniker on this offense is Smith-Njigba. The Steelers came into this game knowing he was the focal point of the pass game. They were going to bracket him all day and try to put their best corner, Jalen Ramsey, on him whenever possible. Smith-Njigba hardly seemed to notice as he ho-hummed his way to another 100 yards receiving. He is quickly establishing himself as not only a viable #1 receiver, but as one of the best receivers in the game.
People said he would struggle without DK Metcalf drawing coverage. They said he was just a slot receiver. They said he wasn’t a downfield threat. That chorus of doubters is looking like Rosie O’Donnell singing the national anthem.
Smith-Njigba is beating all comers, all coverages, on all parts of the field. His 43-yard catch on Ramsey’s head led to Walker’s historic touchdown scamper. Defenses are going to dedicate more and more attention to Smith-Njigba, which only matters if the rest receiving weapons are capable of exploiting their advantages. Kupp, Horton, Arroyo, and Barner did that perfectly in this game.
It felt like Kubiak took the training wheels off Darnold and the offensive line this week. You could feel the trust build as Darnold converted multiple 3rd and long passes. The interception he threw early was a nice play by Ramsey, and not a terrible throw or decision. It was aggressive and risky, but not poorly thrown or to the wrong receiver.
Generally, Darnold looked like a guy capable of carrying a heavier load than most expected him to in this offense. Evidence is mounting that John Schneider may have done the unthinkable and found a quality starting quarterback at a discount in free agency. That simply does not happen in this league.
Darnold still has his weak spots, like sensing the pass rush and turning the ball over too often, but his ratio of positive-to-negative plays has skewed heavily toward the good side over his last 20 games. At some point, we stop waiting for the “Old Sam” to return. Those who would point to his two interceptions as reason to pump the brakes should tally up all the other plays in this game and then look at his process throughout. This was a second straight quality start from the Seattle signal caller.
This Seahawks defense came into the season with far higher expectations than the offense. They played their hearts out against the 49ers and were understandably demoralized by the way things ended. The question was whether they could play with the same physicality and energy a week later without their emotional leader.
Witherspoon made the trip to Pittsburgh and went through an extensive pre-game workout, but he was still not able to run full speed without some hitch in his gate. That meant a new DK had to take over for Seattle, Derion Kendrick. The corner who Seattle claimed off waivers from the Rams, had played almost exclusively outside corner in his career, but had started cross-training at nickel last season before he tore his ACL. The Rams played him some at nickel during preseason, which is probably part of what attracted Seattle to him
He very nearly had more interceptions in this game than Witherspoon has in his career. Rodgers threw a pass right to Kendrick in the first half, which Kendrick not only did not catch, but volleyed up in the air and almost into the hands of a Steelers receiver. He more than made up for it when he made a diving catch of a ball that caromed off the hands of a Steelers receiver in the endzone for a game-changing pick.
Macdonald used a variety of combinations in the secondary to make up for the absences of Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori. Kendrick played nickel. D’Anthony Bell played big nickel. Ty Okada sometimes came in to play deep safety and Julian Love would walk down to the box.
Meanwhile, Woolen and Josh Jobe were locking down the outside all day. No Steelers wide receiver had more than 22 yards, and all 22 of those yards to Calvin Austin came when the game was out of reach near the two minute warning. Metcalf was mostly silent. He had his customary drops, but did make a rare contested catch in the red zone for the Steelers only touchdown.
Jobe is becoming a big story in this season. Often cited as the weak spot in the secondary, all he has done through two games is play nearly flawless football. Should this continue, his addition will go down as another big win for Schneider.
Woolen could have sulked after a rough week, but played with great effort and result. He had one penalty, but was otherwise blanketing his opponents on the day.
The biggest story on that side of the ball may have been the play of second year defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, who had a better rookie season than his numbers indicated. His first game this year followed a similar script in that his level of play was much higher than his stats. No need for advanced metrics in this one. Murphy finished with 1.5 sacks and 5 pressures.
The last time a Seahawks DT has had 1.5+ sacks in a game while playing in the first 15 games of their career was Jordan Hill back in 2014. Disruptive defensive tackles are a rare breed. Ones who have the desire to play both the run and the talent to rush the passer are even more hard to find. This was a building block performance for Murphy.
When Ernest Jones IV heard me mention the multiple sack performance to Tyrice Knight in the celebratory postgame locker room, Jones leapt up from his seat wearing just a towel and said, “Murph got two sacks!! Where you at Murph!?” He then walked off to find him with a big smile on his face.
The linebackers had plenty to smile about themselves. Knight had a big bounce back game that had him flying all over the field making tackles. He acknowledged afterwards that there was some rust after missing 30 days due to injury during training camp.
Special teams deserves a shout in this one. George Holani will get well earned praise for his touchdown recovery of a kickoff that allowed the Seahawks to create some breathing room, but Jason Meyers and Jay Harbaugh should get some shine as well.
Meyers kick was expertly skipped into the landing zone and over the head of the returner. It would have been an uncomfortable catch either way. Instead, the rookie returner made a huge mistake and let the ball settle in the end zone while Holani raced down the field to recover it while managing to stay inbounds.
Meyers also made a 54-yard field goal after missing a 36-yarder earlier. Horton had a nice punt return and Michael Dickson had a good day punting. Coverage was solid all afternoon. The special teams have made big plays in each of the first two games.
In all, the Seahawks won for the third straight time as road underdogs, and are 4-1 in those situations under Macdonald. A lot of the disparity in record between home and road can be attributed to quality of opponent. Not this time. Winning in Pittsburgh during their home opener with the talent they have should not be dismissed.
It is also worth noting that the Seahawks opponent seemed to struggle with the physicality of Seattle for the second straight week. A laundry list of Steelers left the game due to injury after the 49ers experienced the same fate.
The laws of physics would tell you that when two objects collide, the object with greater density and velocity will do the most damage. Seattle has felt like the bigger, faster, stronger team through two weeks, even if their record is just 1-1. It has been a long time since you could say that about a Seahawks team facing the 49ers and Steelers.
Just like last week, however, this was just one game. It won’t make up for the Super Bowl loss all those years ago or the home opening defeat to San Francisco, but it will allow this team to exhale and start building the belief that they are who they thought they were, and not who the naysayers have said they will be.
Week one is a liar. Seattle hopes the truth will set them free.
Seattle plays their second straight game against a franchise Seahawks fans love to hate when they travel across the country to play the Pittsburgh Steelers. More recent fans may not carry the same vitriol toward the Steelers as those who were around to see them benefit from some Seahawks injuries and poor officiating in the Super Bowl. Since then, the teams have played six times, with Steelers winning four times, including three of four in Pittsburgh. Seattle has only been shutout four times since 2000, and two of them were by the Steelers in Pittsburgh (2007, 2011). The series got a little boost of rivalry pixie dust when DK Metcalf forced his way out of Seattle and wound up playing with Aaron Rodgers.
Both teams had wildly different opening weeks. Pittsburgh played on the road against a Jets team with low national expectations, and got into a shootout that was ultimately decided by a fumbled kickoff and a 60-yard field goal. Rodgers was nearly perfect, with four touchdown passes and zero picks, while the pricey Steelers defense was overpowered by Justin Fields and Breece Hall.
Seattle lost to their arch rival, who most expect to win the division, in a game where points came at a premium. A brutally physical game left the 49ers with a slew of injuries, but a victory to treat their wounds. The Seahawks exited with concern about their offense and the cornerback most likely to be matched up on Metcalf.
Pittsburgh is looking for a bounce back game from their defense, especially against the run, and better pass protection from a line that saw Rodgers get sacked four times. Seattle wants to get their running game going, and turn more of their league-leading pressure rate into sacks. Two teams, emphasizing the inverse aspects of their game.
Oddsmakers have the Steelers as favorites (-3) to go to 2-0 and send Seattle home 0-2. It will take a dramatic step forward by the Seahawks offense to alter that outcome.
Lineup notesThe Steelers left their game with a number of injuries. Starting safety DeShon Elliott and backup inside linebacker Malik Harrison were lost, and have already been ruled out for this week. Starting corner Joey Porter Jr. also left with an injury, but Mike Tomlin said he is hopeful he will play this week. Their first round pick, defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, missed last week and has already been ruled out for this week. On the positive side, they are expecting to get rush end Nick Herbig back on the field after missing week one. He had 5.5 sacks and 27 pressures last season as part of a talented edge group.
Seattle will be without rookie safety Nick Emmanwori. They may be getting back three players in edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu, and receivers, Jake Bobo and Dareke Young. There were also hints dropped by Mike Macdonald that CB Josh Jobe and LB Drake Thomas may steal snaps from Riq Woolen and Tyrice Knight, respectively.
DVOATale of the Tape features DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective.
Welcome to the bizarre world of small sample sizes and unexpected results. Few would expect the Seahawks offense to outrank any defense after their ineffective performance in week one, but DVOA has them somewhat solidly ahead of a Steelers defense that was beaten on the ground and through the air against the Jets. Similarly, a Seahawks defene that played a mostly great game against the 49ers, ranks just 20th in DVOA.
How the Steelers could rank worse in defending tight ends than a Seahawks team that gave up two touchdowns to tight ends in the first week is beyond comprehension.
Seahawks Offense vs Steelers Defense
Steelers key advantages on defenseIt is hard to believe the Steelers are truly that bad in defending the run. New York put up over 180 yards on the ground, including over 100 yards by the running back. Almost all of those runs were away from All-Pro edge T.J. Watt. It was a surprise to see DT Cam Heyward and edge Alex Highsmith struggle.
The Steelers were 13th in run defense, per DVOA, a year ago. However, they were 18th in rushing success rate and 17th in rush EPA. Looking more closely, they gave up 124, 220, and 299 yards rushing the the Ravens, as well as 131 yards rushing to the Eagles. They generally played the run well against the non-powerhouse running teams, although, 157 yards to the Giants stands out.
Watt remains a game-wrecker, and Heyward will be motivated to prove week one was an aberration. Highsmith gets lost in the shadows of those two stars, but is one of the better edge players in football. At a glance, there is more talent on this line than the one that shut down the Seahawks run game in week one.
Patrick Queen is a familiar face to Macdonald, and leads their second level. Jalen Ramsey is playing somewhat of a big nickel role for the Steelers after they acquired him from the Dolphins. He should be able to lock down Cooper Kupp or any of the Seattle tight ends who line up against him.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseThere is some weakness on the interior of that Steelers line, more than what we saw against the 49ers. Keeanu Benton, Isaiahh Loudermilk, and rookie Yahya Black all struggled mightily against the Jets. Linebacker Payton Wilson also overran a number of plays and was caught out of position.
New York ran primarily zone scheme, which aligns with what the Seahawks major in. The Jets benefitted from a dual threat quarterback in Justin Fields. Seattle may be tempted to see how they handle some Jalen Milroe packages. Macdonald mentioned there were more plays in the game plan for him, but they just didn’t sustain enough drives to get to those calls.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is better than any of the corners the Steelers could throw his way. Veteran Darius Slay was torched by another former Buckeye in Garrett Wilson in game one. Ramsey is still big and talented, but has lost a step and would be outmatched by JSN. Porter Jr. has struggled after a promising rookie season two years ago, and may play through an injury.
The Steelers allowed nearly two yards before contact per carry in the first game, ranking 24th in the NFL. Seattle needs a similar outcome to allow this nascent offense to gain confidence on the road in a tough environment.
Pittsburgh stacked the box (8+ defenders) even more often (28%) than the 49ers (23%). They are going to dare Sam Darnold and the passing game to beat them. It’s worth noting that the Steelers gave up the second-highest EPA/pass versus shotgun in week one, and they were the worst in the league when there was no play action. In other words, the Seahawks game plan against the 49ers would make some sense here, but you have to wonder if they will go the opposite direction and unveil their under center, play action game. The problem there is it can increase the risk of the pass rush getting home on longer developing plays.
Something to watch: Pittsburgh ran single-high safety at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL last season (64.5%). That could create opportunity for tight ends to exploit the seams or Tory Horton to challenge deep.
Steelers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Steelers key advantages on offenseRodgers had a terrific game in his return to New York. He was particularly effective on play action passes, were he went 8/10 for 71 yards and 3 TDs. That was his most play action passes since 2016. The problem for the Steelers was that their pass protection did not hold up well on those plays, giving up multiple sacks.
Rodgers time to throw on those plays was over 3 seconds, compared to 2.3 seconds without play action. The fact that they still gave up 27% pressure rate when getting rid of the ball that quickly is not good news for their offense.
What is good news is they were highly effective in the quick passing game overall. They had the 4th-best EPA/pass on pass attempts under 2.5 seconds. Metcalf was productive on some screen plays, and 112 of Rodgers 244 yards passing came on these quick plays.
Metcalf will be looking to make a point in this game. Those moments have had mixed results for the ultra-talented receiver in past seasons.
Watch out for the Steelers tight end group that includes Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, and Darnell Washington. Seattle struggled against tight ends versus the 49ers.
Jaylen Warren is a good running back who inexplicably split carries with Kenneth Gainwell. Look for Warren to get more carries in this one.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseBoye Mafe and Derick Hall had much more productive games than I realized the first time I watched. Mafe led the team in pressures, and both players made Trent Williams look foolish repeatedly. They may welcome back Nwosu this week and the Steelers left tackle, Broderick Jones, was so bad in the game against the Jets that there are already questions about how long of a leash they will give him before being benched.
The rest of the line is also a question mark. Former Husky Troy Fautanu is playing right tackle after losing his rookie year to injury. Zach Frazier is a good center. Mason McCormick and Isaac Seumalo are middling (or worse) guards. The Steelers struggled to hold up against the blitz, yielding three of their sacks and a whopping 23% sack rate (sack, not pressure).
Given the Seahawks had over an 80% pressure rate when they blitzed against the 49ers, expect Macdonald to dial up more pressures this week. The challenge there will be the wily veteran in Rodgers being able to identify the pressures and get the ball out to his hot read, or changing the snap count and getting some free offsides shots down the field.
Rodgers cannot move at this stage of his career, so there will be a much higher pressure-to-sack rate than against the mobile and resourceful, Brock Purdy. Case in point, Purdy was under pressure on 21 dropbacks, and was only sacked 1 time (4.8%). Rodgers was under pressure on 9 of his dropbacks, and was sacked 4 times (44.4%).
Metcalf is a bit of a one-man show, but Calvin Austin III showed he may have more to offer at the second receiver spot than most expected. Josh Jobe, Devon Witherspoon, and Riq Woolen need to be better as a group.
Special Teams
The Steelers kicker made two kicks over 50 yards, including the 60-yard game winner. Their special teams also forced a fumble on a kick return that keyed the win. Seattle was no slouch on special teams either, with a blocked field goal and relatively productive returns.
Key to a Steelers winSlow the Seahawks run game and take advantage of Rodgers’ savvy at the line of scrimmage to exploit holes in coverage. It is hard to see the Seahawks winning a game where they are forced to rely on dropback passing.
Key to a Seahawks winForcing turnovers on defense and giving the offense a shorter field. Pressures must turn into sacks and turnovers. Someone must step up to the challenge of slowing Metcalf, while the line has to do a better job of creating space in the run game.
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Game RatingsOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating24 Votes2.8Week one of the NFL season is is misleading. The first Seahawks Super Bowl team in 2005 got walloped by the Jacksonville Jaguars to start that year. The first Seahawks team to win a ring needed a miraculous late touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse to escape the Carolina Panthers, 12-7. Neither game was a good measure of the quality of those squads. It would be a mistake, though, to wave away the concerns that resurfaced in this consequential 17-13 loss to rival San Francisco. Part of the hope building for this team during preseason was the idea that old narratives would be challenged and outside skeptics would look foolish. Instead, this performance reinforced most the flaws that have been raised about this team’s construction, and added a few more.
The nuts and bolts of this game were pretty simple. Seattle’s offense was anemic. The 49ers offense was not much better (5.3 yards per play versus 4.6 for Seattle). Brock Purdy was the better quarterback and Kyle Shanahan was the better offensive play caller. That especially showed up on 3rd downs where the 49ers converted 50% of their tries (7-14), compared to 30% (3-10) for the Seahawks, including the game-winning touchdown. There have been years when Seahawks fans would have taken a moral victory out of having clearly closed the gap with the bully 49er crew. There were simply too many familiar flaws that left most frustrated, and some smugly wagging their “told you so” finger.
Consider some key points of disagreement entering this season.
The optimistsThe belief was that Mike Macdonald had finally found his offensive counterpart in Klint Kubiak and that the offense would commit to the run in a way they never did last season. The young offensive line would be worlds better than any of the recent products due to health, talent, experienced coaching, and scheme. Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet would form a powerful and explosive due who would run behind battering ram fullback Robbie Ouzts and quality group of blocking tight ends and receivers.
There would be plentiful under center snaps with play action that made runs and passes indistinguishable. The receiving room would be talented enough to take on a supporting role behind the run game for occasional chunk plays with some veteran presence in Cooper Kupp who could make some key 3rd down and red zone plays. Tory Horton Jr. and Elijah Arroyo would burst onto the scene as productive rookies. Sam Darnold would run the offense efficiently, and cut down on some of his sacks by getting rid of the ball more quickly.
The defense would take a step forward in their second season under Macdonald, with more players joining Leonard Williams as dominant playmakers. DeMarcus Lawrence would help a first down weakness from last year and be a still-productive run defender while the other young edge players in Boye Mafe and Derick Hall would take their next step as pass rushers. Byron Murphy II would emerge as a more disruptive presence in the middle of the line. Nick Emmanwori would allow Macdonald to play a larger nickel package and deploy Devon Witherspoon in new ways.
Macdonald’s resume of giving NFC West offenses trouble would become a possible division-altering storyline.
The pessimistsSeattle downgraded at quarterback and wide receiver and brought in a mediocre offensive coordinator who will not be able to lift a team without playmakers. The offensive line will still be one of the worst in football. Opponents will stack the box to take away the run and dare Darnold and a subpar receiving room to beat them. Only JSN will be a weapon in the passing game. Kupp is washed and Horton is a 5th round rookie. The tight ends are nothing special. Darnold will shrink under pressure and in the big moments.
The defense will be good, but not great. Edge rush will be a problem and Murphy won’t be much more than he was a season ago. Emmanwori will struggle as a rookie. Riq Woolen will continue to make key mistakes. There may also be some issues at inside linebacker outside of Ernest Jones IV.
Macdonald will do a good job coaching the defense but still does not have a good offensive philosophy, and the team will be too limited on that side of the ball to be a quality playoff performer.
Early evidence The Seahawks run game was the most important aspect of this football team heading into the season. I have said repeatedly that they need to be a Top 10 rushing offense to be a good team. The one aspect of that projection that seemed safe was that Seattle would commit to the run after suffering through Ryan Grubb’s pass-happy play calling a year ago. In some ways, that proved absolutely true. Seattle had the second-highest early down run rate in the NFL (pending MNF).
In other ways, it felt like a departure from the under-center, wide zone, play action, identity they practiced and preached all offseason. Seattle ranked 19th in the NFL in run outside the tackles (50%), per Next Gen Stats. More alarmingly, they were dead last in play action rate (4.2%), with just a single recorded play action pass attempt. That one attempt was a 21-yard completion, leaving Seattle with the second-highest EPA per dropback on play action passes in the league.
Their quick passing game was horribly ineffective. Kubiak dialed up screen passes that seemed more likely to lose yards than gain them. In fact, Seattle is currently dead last in the NFL in EPA/DB on quick passes (under 2.5 seconds) at -0.73. You can read that as Seattle lost nearly a point per play (estimated) when running quick passes. That problem gets worse when you realize quick passes made up 54% of their pass attempts.
The 49ers run defense was awful last year. The personnel changes they made to their interior line were limited to rookies. Robert Saleh, however, showed why he is considered one of the best defensive coaches out there by outclassing Kubiak all day. His ability to limit the effectiveness of the run game, while suffocating the quick game, left Kubiak grasping at straws.
It was bizarre to see Kubiak get away from the under center game as much as he did. It wasn’t until the penultimate drive to take the lead that they truly committed to that style. On that drive, they had runs of 8, 5, 7, and 4 yards before having a -1 yard carry. They did not see a 3rd down until they had already moved into field goal range. Where was this the rest of the game?
Macdonald talks about wanting to “throw their fastballs,” by which he means doing what they do best. It felt like they were messing around with secondary pitches all day, and wound up losing a game where they did not honor their intended identity on offense.
Walker had a particularly unproductive day that will only increase the calls for Charbonnet to take over the bulk of the carries.
There are some odd takes out there that this game proved Darnold was a fraud last season, and using this game as a chance to relitigate the decision to move on from Geno Smith. That conversation will continue all season (and maybe beyond), but feels like wasted breath.
Darnold was actually a wildly different quarterback in this game than he was a season ago. His time to pass was 2.59 seconds, 8th-fastest in the NFL so far. That number was 3.08 seconds last season, 3rd-slowest in the league. As previously mentioned, his shotgun rate was higher and his play action rate was way lower.
One commonality between last season and this one was that Darnold remained a productive deep passer. He ranks 9th in EPA/DB on throws over 20 yards. The problem is that he had just two attempts.
He seemed on the precipice of continuing another trend from last season where he was the top-rated passer in close and late situations until the fateful fumble that lost the game. He finished with 0 turnover-worthy throws, per PFF.
Generally, this game felt far more like an indictment on the Kubiak game plan and play calling than it did on Darnold.
The offensive line played reasonably well. When not blitzed, the Seahawks had the 3rd-best pressure rate in the league (17.6%). You might think that is completely related to the quick passing game, but they were still 15th in the NFL on pass plays that took over 2.5 seconds. Where they struggled was when the 49ers blitzed.
Seattle gave up pressure on 71.4% of pass attempts when Saleh called a blitz. That was the 5th-worst rate in the league. Overall, they wind up in the middle of the pack (16th) in pressure rate after this game.
Run blocking was probably a little better than it looked given how many players the 49ers were committing to the run. Seattle averaged 1.15 yards before contact, 16th in the league. They did that against stacked boxes on nearly a quarter of their rush attempts (23.1%).
Nick Bosa was a handful, as always, but only had 2 pressures on the day. Unfortunately, one of them winds up counting as a sack as he drove Abe Lucas back close enough to Darnold to cause the ball to slip out of the quarterback’s hands.
The bigger factors were guys like Kalia Davis and Jordan Elliott, who were far more stout in the middle than expected.
Overall, the offense was about what you would expect from a new coordinator, quarterback, and receiving room in the first game of the year. The hope was that they would burst onto the scene as a surprise group, led by a dominant run game. That did not happen. Most of the credit there goes to Saleh, but some of the blame certainly goes to Kubiak.
Defensively, the group looked a lot like they did over the last half of 2024. They were sound and tough. Purdy was under pressure on over 60% of his dropbacks, which was a career-high and ranks tops in the NFL so far. The 49ers struggled with the blitz even more than the Seahawks, giving up a league-worst 83.3% pressure rate when Macdonald blitzed.
Coverage was mostly excellent, allowing the 3rd-lowest average separation (2.9 yards) in the NFL. The problems, though, were all-too-familiar.
Riq Woolen was in position to be the hero twice on the game-winning drive for San Francisco. Twice, he was the goat. Purdy had already thrown two interceptions when he lofted a pass to Ricky Pearsall down the left sideline. Woolen was in great position to pick off another pass but misjudged the ball and allowed Pearsall to separate and make the biggest gain of the day. Later, Purdy threw up a desperation pass to little-used tight end Jake Tonges that should have been, at worst, knocked down by Woolen. Instead, Woolen did not attack the ball and Tonges surged in front of him to catch the game-winner.
This happened to Woolen against the Rams last year. It happened against the Vikings. He has the talent to be one of the best corners in the game, but failing to make the play in the biggest moments will limit his value.
The loss of Emmanwori early to an ankle sprain forced Ty Okada into the lineup and he was badly outplayed in his six snaps. So much so that he never returned to the field. It was clear Emmanwori was a big part of the game plan against the 49ers, and Macdonald had to adjust in real time.
That he still limited Shanahan to 17 points for the second-straight game, and his players were able to pick off two more passes, is encouraging. Murphy was more disruptive in this game, if not dominant. His win rate on true pass sets (16.7%) was similar to what he did last year (20.7%), while getting more chances. He had 13 snaps in those situations in this game, which would work out to 221 over a season. He had just 85 of those chances last year. If he can have a win rate that high while his volume of opportunities rises, he may still become the weapon the fans and teams envision.
The edge rush felt too much like last year. Nobody was getting quick pressures, and sacks were hard to come by. Purdy extended plays and found success just often enough to win the game.
Jones was terrific. Jobe was terrific. Williams won the matchup with Trent Williams. Julian Love was great. Overall, this performance should have been enough to win. At the same time, it still felt like a defense made up of quality players, but lacking in truly dominant playmakers.
Rough way to startChalk up one for the pessimists. Seattle was unable to beat a weakened 49ers team who also lost key players in George Kittle and Jauan Jennings during the game. They controlled a lot of the game, but could not convert in key moments on either side of the ball. Losing this divisional game at home will absolutely haunt this team later in the season, just as the Rams loss at home did a season ago.
One thought that came up after this one was that while the 2022 draft class was stacked with impactful players in Charles Cross, Walker, Mafe, Woolen, Lucas and Coby Bryant, there is some question about whether that group can the core of a contending team. This 2025 class feels different in terms of makeup. Somewhere between optimism and pessimism is the idea that this group might be where the team needs to build around, which will take more time than one season. How much they step forward over the course of this year will reveal how quickly they can take on that responsibility.
Seattle has what may be an even tougher matchup this coming week at Pittsburgh, a team with better personnel on the front seven than San Francisco. The book is now out on this offense. Stack the box and stop the run. Double Smith-Njigba, and dare Darnold to beat you anywhere else. As Macdonald says, the best way to the other side is through, not around.
That will involve holding true to their under center, play action, identity. This was not the disastrous game we have seen against the 49ers in the past. It also was not the encouraging step forward Seahawks fans were hoping to see. A surprise win on the road would go a long way toward getting back on track.
Seahawks fans are the best in the NFL. They have set records for noise, false starts, and even briefly caused the league to penalize home fans for being too loud. A number of factors have caused an erosion of the home field advantage across the NFL, including in Seattle. The team has taken an important step by warning season ticket holders about reselling too many of their tickets. There are still, however, legitimate reasons people will need to sell tickets and there is no current solution that allows Seahawks fans to be sure their seats will be filled by other Seahawks fans. Until now. Today, the HB Ticket Exchange is live and ready for use!
Announcing HB Ticket Exchange (BETA)!The manual solution I created last season to facilitate the sale of Seahawks tickets to Seahawks fans was far more popular than I could have imagined. Hundreds of tickets were sold successfully in just two weeks. That served as proof that there was demand for a service like this, but also that the solution was not scalable given the dozens of hours I was spending managing the process.
Many folks have asked if I was going to continue the service this season. Before I committed to doing it, I needed to find ways to address some of the issues I found last year:
- Seahawks fan verification
- While there was some filtering of who joined the registry based on it primarily being shared through my social media accounts (most of my followers are Seahawks fans), there were still some questionable sign-ups
- Reduce potential for scams
- Almost every listing was legit, but a couple scammers found their way in. Nobody was scammed, but this would only increase as the service increases in size and awareness.
- Increase confidence in the ticket sale/purchase process
- It is always nerve-wracking doing peer-to-peer purchases as the seller worries if they pay before they get the tickets, they might get ripped off, and the buyer is worried that if they transfer the tickets before being paid, they might get ripped off.
- Minimize my involvement as a middle man
- I simply don’t have the time (or desire) to manage this to the level I did last year. I can see a clear path to making this a successful business, but I don’t want to start another business. I just want to help put Seahawks fans in seats.
How HB Ticket Exchange (BETA) Will WorkThe core idea behind HB Ticket Exchange remains the same: connecting Seahawks fans who want to sell tickets with Seahawks fans who want to buy them. This year, however, the process will be more streamlined, more secure, and less reliant on my direct involvement.
The process will look something like this:
- Join the Exchange: Interested Seahawks fans will join the HB Ticket Exchange through a dedicated platform (more on this below).
- Listing Tickets: Sellers will create a listing for their available tickets, specifying game, seating location, and price.
- Fan-to-Fan Connection: Buyers will browse available listings and connect directly with sellers.
- Guided Transaction: Once a match is made, the transaction will occur through a secure, recommended method (details below).
- Ticket Transfer: After payment is confirmed, the seller will digitally transfer the tickets to the buyer.
Mitigating the Issues: Our ApproachTo address the challenges identified last season, HB Ticket Exchange will implement several key strategies:
Seahawks Fan VerificationTo ensure that only true Seahawks fans are using the platform, we’ll be implementing a multi-pronged approach to verification. Initially, access to the HB Ticket Exchange will be open to everyone. In order to reduce the likelihood of scammers or opposing fans ruining the fun, each logged in user will have a profile that will indicate if they are a member of my Patreon community. This allows me to leverage the existing community of verified fans and provides a baseline level of trust. We’ll also ask users to add their Discord handle so you can chat with the person directly via the HB Discord Community. While not foolproof, this layered approach will significantly reduce the likelihood of non-fans infiltrating the system. Furthermore, we’ll be introducing a “Vouch” system, allowing established members to vouch for new or existing users, providing an additional layer of community trust.
Reducing Potential for ScamsThis is a critical area of focus. While we can’t eliminate all risk, we can significantly reduce it by:
- Platform-Based Trust Signals: The platform we choose will have features that allow for seller vouches, building a community-driven trust system. Users with consistently positive feedback will instill more confidence.
- Recommended Transaction Methods: We will strongly recommend and guide users towards secure payment platforms that offer buyer and seller protections (e.g., PayPal Goods & Services). While we won’t directly facilitate payments, providing clear guidance on safe practices is paramount.
- Clear Reporting Mechanism: Users will have an easy way to report suspicious activity or potential scams. Prompt action will be taken on reported accounts to protect the community.
Increasing Confidence in the Ticket Sale/Purchase ProcessThe anxiety around peer-to-peer transactions is real. To alleviate this, we’ll focus on:
- Trust Level: User profiles will show whether a user is an HB Patron, and whether they have a Discord handle so you can communicate prior to the transaction in a simple and quick method. You also have a higher potential chance to have prior experience with the seller or buyer if you participate in the HB Discord community, where you can also see evidence that the person is a real Seahawks fan.
- Community Vouching System: As mentioned above, the “Vouch” system will also contribute significantly here. When a user is vouched for by another trusted member, this will be visible on their profile, giving potential buyers or sellers more confidence in their reliability.
- Escrow-like Best Practices (via recommended payment methods): By emphasizing and guiding users towards payment platforms with built-in protections, we can effectively create a pseudo-escrow environment where funds are held until tickets are confirmed transferred.
- Clear Communication Guidelines: We’ll provide best practices for communication between buyers and sellers, encouraging transparency and clear expectations.
- Banning Bad Actors (and 49ers Fans) We will ban user’s without hesitation if they are found to be a scammer or an opposing fan. If need be, we will limit access for the exchange to only HB Patreon members.
Minimizing My Involvement as a Middle ManThis is where the power of technology comes in. While I’ll be overseeing and curating the community, the day-to-day management of ticket listings and connections will be handled by the chosen platform. My role will shift from managing individual transactions to:
- Community Moderation: Ensuring the rules are followed and addressing any disputes or issues that arise.
- Platform Management: Overseeing the technical aspects of the exchange and making improvements based on user feedback.
- Promotion and Outreach: Continuing to grow the community of genuine Seahawks fans.
- Paying For the System: This service will cost me a fair amount of money to run, and a lot of my time. I would greatly appreciate support via Patreon or tipping.
DemonstrationYou can watch this video where I walk through how the site works.
When Can You Join?Now! Head over to the HB Ticket Exchange (BETA) and sign up for free. Start listing tickets and vouching for fellow Seahawk fans.
Become a Part of a Great Seahawks Community!If you’re a passionate Seahawks fan and you’re interested in being part of this exciting new solution for buying and selling tickets, I highly recommend you head over to my Patreon and join the community now! Being a Patreon supporter will grant you early access and priority invitation to the HB Ticket Exchange once it launches. This is the best way to ensure you’re among the first to benefit from this dedicated fan-to-fan platform.
Let’s get those seats filled with true 12s again! Go Hawks!
As we eagerly await the official 2025 NFL schedule release, it’s the perfect time to prognosticate and analyze how the landscape of league difficulty might shift. Using a methodology that applies 2024 team statistics (DVOA, EPA per play, success rate) to the known 2025 opponents, we can get a fascinating glimpse into which teams are poised for a smoother ride and which might be facing a significantly tougher gauntlet.
This isn’t just about who plays whom, but the quality of those opponents based on their previous year’s performance. Let’s break down the projected changes in schedule difficulty for offenses, defenses, and overall team slates.
Offensive Challenges: AFC North Faces a Defensive GauntletWhen offenses look at their 2025 opponents, some will be licking their chops, while others might be bracing for impact. The analysis, based on the 2024 defensive prowess of their upcoming opponents, shows a clear trend.
Toughest Roads for Offenses in 2025:
The AFC North’s unenviable position at the top is largely due to their own division’s strong defenses and their inter-conference matchup against the NFC North, which featured three of the top seven DVOA defenses in 2024 (Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota). The Miami Dolphins (+24 spots) and New England Patriots (+14 spots) also see substantially harder paths for their offenses.
Here’s the full breakdown of projected offensive schedule difficulty for 2025:
2025 Projected Offensive Schedule Difficulty (Based on Opponents’ 2024 Defensive Stats)
| 2025 Projected Rank (Toughest = 1) | Team | Average Opponent Defensive Rank (2024) | 2024 OFF SCHED Rank (Toughest = 1) | Change in Rank (2025 – 2024) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12.06 | 15 | +14 | | 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 12.24 | 5 | -3 | | 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 12.29 | 17 | +14 | | 4 | Cleveland Browns | 12.41 | 11 | +7 | | 5 | Buffalo Bills | 13.24 | 26 | +21 | | 6 | Miami Dolphins | 13.41 | 30 | +24 | | 7 | New England Patriots | 13.47 | 21 | +14 | | 8 | New York Jets | 13.53 | 10 | +2 | | 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14.00 | 7 | -2 | | 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 14.00 | 24 | +14 | | 11 | Denver Broncos | 14.06 | 25 | +14 | | 12 | Tennessee Titans | 14.24 | 18 | +6 | | 13 | Houston Texans | 14.29 | 27 | +14 | | 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 14.47 | 8 | -6 | | 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14.53 | 1 | -14 | | 16 | Arizona Cardinals | 15.53 | 19 | +3 | | 17 | Green Bay Packers | 15.53 | 2 | -15 | | 18 | Detroit Lions | 15.59 | 4 | -14 | | 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 15.71 | 16 | -3 | | 20 | Chicago Bears | 15.76 | 6 | -14 | | 21 | Philadelphia Eagles | 16.24 | 32 | +11 | | 22 | Washington Commanders | 16.29 | 29 | +7 | | 23 | Dallas Cowboys | 16.41 | 12 | -11 | | 24 | New York Giants | 16.47 | 14 | -10 | | 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17.00 | 28 | +3 | | 26 | Atlanta Falcons | 17.06 | 20 | -6 | | 27 | Carolina Panthers | 17.12 | 23 | -4 | | 28 | New Orleans Saints | 17.18 | 31 | +3 | | 29 | Los Angeles Rams | 17.71 | 3 | -26 | | 30 | Seattle Seahawks | 17.76 | 13 | -17 | | 31 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17.88 | 22 | -9 | | 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 18.00 | 9 | -23 |
Easiest Paths for Offenses in 2025:
The San Francisco 49ers are projected to have the easiest offensive schedule, a massive 23-spot improvement from facing the 9th toughest in 2024. The Las Vegas Raiders (31st), Seattle Seahawks (30th), Los Angeles Rams (29th), and New Orleans Saints (28th) round out the five easiest. Much of this shift, particularly for the NFC West teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams, comes from their divisional matchups changing from the defensively stout NFC North in 2024 to the NFC South and AFC South in 2025 — divisions that, based on 2024 data, present less formidable defensive challenges.
Defensive Hurdles: Which Units Face the Top Offenses?Flipping the script, let’s look at which defenses are projected to face the most potent offensive attacks based on their opponents’ 2024 offensive stats.
Toughest Schedules for Defenses in 2025:
The AFC East defenses, in particular, are bracing for a tough year. Their schedule includes facing powerful offenses within their own division and in inter-conference play. For instance, the Patriots will face the Bills (2nd ranked offense in 2024) twice, the Ravens (1st ranked offense), and the Bengals (5th ranked offense).
Here’s the full data for defensive schedule difficulty:
2025 Projected Defensive Schedule Difficulty (Based on Opponents’ 2024 Offensive Stats)
| 2025 Projected Rank (Toughest = 1) | Team | Average Opponent Offensive Rank (2024) | 2024 DEF SCHED Rank (Toughest = 1) | Change in Rank (2025 – 2024) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | New England Patriots | 15.53 | 18 | +17 | | 2 | New York Jets | 15.65 | 26 | +24 | | 3 | Buffalo Bills | 16.00 | 23 | +20 | | 4 | Miami Dolphins | 16.06 | 28 | +24 | | 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | 16.41 | 30 | +25 | | 6 | Cleveland Browns | 16.47 | 2 | -4 | | 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 16.53 | 10 | +3 | | 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 16.71 | 25 | +17 | | 9 | Tennessee Titans | 16.76 | 15 | +6 | | 10 | Houston Texans | 16.82 | 22 | +12 | | 11 | Indianapolis Colts | 16.88 | 31 | +20 | | 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17.00 | 32 | +20 | | 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17.06 | 6 | -7 | | 14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17.12 | 27 | +13 | | 15 | Denver Broncos | 17.18 | 20 | +5 | | 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17.24 | 17 | +1 | | 17 | Arizona Cardinals | 17.41 | 3 | -14 | | 18 | Green Bay Packers | 17.47 | 21 | +3 | | 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 17.53 | 13 | -6 | | 20 | Chicago Bears | 17.59 | 5 | -15 | | 21 | Detroit Lions | 17.65 | 11 | -10 | | 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17.71 | 8 | -14 | | 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 17.76 | 24 | +1 | | 24 | Carolina Panthers | 17.82 | 12 | -12 | | 25 | New York Giants | 18.00 | 14 | -11 | | 26 | Dallas Cowboys | 18.06 | 7 | -19 | | 27 | Washington Commanders | 18.12 | 29 | +2 | | 28 | Philadelphia Eagles | 18.18 | 16 | -12 | | 29 | New Orleans Saints | 18.24 | 19 | -10 | | 30 | Seattle Seahawks | 18.29 | 1 | -29 | | 31 | Los Angeles Rams | 18.35 | 9 | -22 | | 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 18.53 | 4 | -28 |
Easiest Schedules for Defenses in 2025:
The San Francisco 49ers not only have the easiest projected offensive schedule but also the easiest path for their defense (a 28-spot improvement). The Los Angeles Rams (31st), Seattle Seahawks (30th), New Orleans Saints (29th), and Philadelphia Eagles (28th) also benefit from facing offenses that were, on average, less explosive in 2024. The NFC West features prominently here again.
The Big Picture: Overall Schedule Difficulty ChangesWhen we combine the changes in offensive and defensive schedule difficulty, we see which teams have the largest net swings from 2024 to 2025. The NFC West clearly stands out, with the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks experiencing substantially more favorable projected schedules compared to last year, by a significant margin over other teams.
Here’s the table showing the overall change:
Overall Change in Schedule Difficulty (2025 vs. 2024)
| Team | Offensive Change | Defensive Change | Overall Change (Rank: Biggest Decrease = 1, Biggest Increase = 32) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | San Francisco 49ers | -23 | -28 | -51 (1) | | Los Angeles Rams | -26 | -22 | -48 (2) | | Seattle Seahawks | -17 | -29 | -46 (3) | | Dallas Cowboys | -11 | -19 | -30 (4) | | Chicago Bears | -14 | -15 | -29 (5) | | Detroit Lions | -14 | -10 | -24 (6) | | New York Giants | -10 | -11 | -21 (7) | | Carolina Panthers | -4 | -12 | -16 (8) | | Las Vegas Raiders | -9 | -7 | -16 (9) | | Green Bay Packers | -15 | +3 | -12 (10) | | Arizona Cardinals | +3 | -14 | -11 (11) | | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3 | -14 | -11 (12) | | Minnesota Vikings | -3 | -6 | -9 (13) | | New Orleans Saints | +3 | -10 | -7 (14) | | Atlanta Falcons | -6 | +1 | -5 (15) | | Kansas City Chiefs | -2 | +1 | -1 (16) | | Philadelphia Eagles | +11 | -12 | -1 (17) | | Cleveland Browns | +7 | -4 | 3 (18) | | Jacksonville Jaguars | -14 | +20 | 6 (19) | | Washington Commanders | +7 | +2 | 9 (20) | | Tennessee Titans | +6 | +6 | 12 (21) | | Baltimore Ravens | -3 | +17 | 14 (22) | | Indianapolis Colts | -6 | +20 | 14 (23) | | Pittsburgh Steelers | +14 | +3 | 17 (24) | | Denver Broncos | +14 | +5 | 19 (25) | | Houston Texans | +14 | +12 | 26 (26) | | New York Jets | +2 | +24 | 26 (27) | | Los Angeles Chargers | +14 | +13 | 27 (28) | | New England Patriots | +14 | +17 | 31 (29) | | Cincinnati Bengals | +14 | +25 | 39 (30) | | Buffalo Bills | +21 | +20 | 41 (31) | | Miami Dolphins | +24 | +24 | 48 (32) |
Biggest Decrease in Overall Difficulty (Easier Schedules Ahead):
- San Francisco 49ers: (-51 spots overall)
- Los Angeles Rams: (-48 spots overall)
- Seattle Seahawks: (-46 spots overall)
- Dallas Cowboys: (-30 spots overall)
- Chicago Bears: (-29 spots overall)
Biggest Increase in Overall Difficulty (Tougher Roads Ahead):
- Miami Dolphins: (+48 spots overall)
- Buffalo Bills: (+41 spots overall)
- Cincinnati Bengals: (+39 spots overall)
- New England Patriots: (+31 spots overall)
- Los Angeles Chargers: (+27 spots overall) (Note: The transcript also groups the Jets and Texans here with +26)
Spotlight on the Seattle Seahawks: A Shift in Fortunes?The Seattle Seahawks are a particularly interesting case. In 2024, their offense faced the 13th toughest schedule of defenses. For 2025, that’s projected to drop to the 3rd easiest (30th overall)—a 17-spot swing.
Even more dramatically, the Seahawks defense faced the NFL’s #1 toughest schedule of offenses in 2024. Despite that, they managed a respectable 10th rank in defensive DVOA. Looking ahead to 2025, they are projected to face the 3rd easiest schedule of offenses (30th overall)—an enormous 29-spot positive change, the largest for any defense in the league.
What could this mean for Mike Macdonald’s defense in year two, with most starters returning? Facing a significantly less potent slate of offenses could, theoretically, allow this unit to truly shine.
Important CaveatsOf course, these projections are based on past performance. The NFL is a dynamic league. Offseason changes like coaching hires, player acquisitions and departures (think the Bears’ offensive overhaul), injuries, and player development will undoubtedly alter the actual strength of teams in 2025.
However, historical data often provides the best foundation for future projections. While individual team performances will vary, the relative difficulty of a schedule plays an undeniable role in a team’s success.
As the 2025 season approaches, it will be fascinating to see how these projected schedule advantages and disadvantages play out on the field. For teams like the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks, the path appears considerably smoother. For others, like the Dolphins, Bills, and Bengals, the journey looks significantly more challenging.
The national conversation about the Seattle Seahawks is that their off-season trades of D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith signaled a rebuilding period. While the turnover on the offensive side of the ball in Seattle is significant, the same could be said about the 49ers and Cardinals defense. In fact, every team in the NFC West is in some sort of transition from older to younger talent. The Rams are still early in their makeover, and still have the oldest quarterback in the division who will need to be replaced soon. Clearer patterns start to emerge when you break down the starters for every position group. You may be surprised to see where teams are young and where they are nearing a reset.
Methodology: Projecting and Averaging Starter Ages
This analysis reviewed each NFC West team’s roster, utilizing the depth charts at Ourlads.com as a foundational resource. Adjustments were incorporated to reflect anticipated Week 1 lineups based on prevailing reports and positional battles. For the San Francisco 49ers, projections included CJ West and Alfred Collins as starting defensive tackles, and Richie Grant stepping in at safety. The Arizona Cardinals‘ edge unit was assessed with Josh Sweat and Zaven Collins as the likely starters. In Los Angeles, the Rams‘ initial linebacker alignment factored in Troy Reeder and Omar Speights. For the Seattle Seahawks, the edge was projected with Boye Mafe and Derick Hall, Nick Emmanwori at cornerback.
With the projected starting lineups established, the average age for each key position group (QB, RB, TE, WR, OL, Edge, LB, DL, CB, S) was calculated. The average ages for the starting offense, starting defense, and the overall starting roster for each team were also computed.
Projected Starting Lineups by Position Group and Team:Quarterbacks (QB) Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray (27) * Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford (37) * San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy (25) * Seattle Seahawks:* Sam Darnold (27)
Running Backs (RB) Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (30), Trey Benson (24) * Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (24), Blake Corum (24) * San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (28), Isaac Guerendo (24) * Seattle Seahawks:* Kenneth Walker III (24), Zach Charbonnet (24)
Tight Ends (TE) Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride (25), Tip Reiman (23), Elijah Higgins (24) * Los Angeles Rams: Tyler Higbee (32), Colby Parkinson (26), Terrance Ferguson (22) * San Francisco 49ers: George Kittle (31), Luke Farrell (27), Brayden Willis (25) * Seattle Seahawks:* Noah Fant (27), AJ Barner (23), Elijah Arroyo (22)
Wide Receivers (WR) Arizona Cardinals: Zay Jones (30), Marvin Harrison Jr. (22), Michael Wilson (25) * Los Angeles Rams: Davante Adams (32), Puka Nacua (23), Tutu Atwell (25) * San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk (27), Ricky Pearsall (24), Jauan Jennings (27) * Seattle Seahawks:* Cooper Kupp (31), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (23)
Offensive Line (OL) Arizona Cardinals: Paris Johnson Jr. (23), Hjalte Froholdt (28), Evan Brown (28), Isaiah Adams (24), Jonah Williams (27) * Los Angeles Rams: Alaric Jackson (26), Steve Avila (25), Coleman Shelton (29), Kevin Dotson (28), Rob Havenstein (32) * San Francisco 49ers: Trent Williams (37), Ben Bartch (26), Jake Brendel (32), Dominick Puni (25), Colton McKivitz (28) * Seattle Seahawks:* Charles Cross (24), Grey Zabel (23), Olu Oluwatimi (25), Christian Haynes (25), Abraham Lucas (26)
Edge Arizona Cardinals: Josh Sweat (28), Zaven Collins (25) * Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse (24), Byron Young (27) * San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa (27), Mykel Williams (20) * Seattle Seahawks:* Boye Mafe (26), Derick Hall (24)
Linebackers (LB) Arizona Cardinals: Mack Wilson Sr. (27), Akeem Davis-Gaither (27) * Los Angeles Rams: Troy Reeder (30), Omar Speights (24) * San Francisco 49ers: Fred Warner (28), Dee Winters (24) * Seattle Seahawks:* Ernest Jones IV (25), Tyrice Knight (25)
Defensive Line (DL) Arizona Cardinals: Calais Campbell (38), Dalvin Tomlinson (31), Darius Robinson (23) * Los Angeles Rams: Braden Fiske (25), Poona Ford (29), Kobie Turner (26) * San Francisco 49ers: CJ West (22), Alfred Collins (23), Jordan Elliott (27) * Seattle Seahawks:* Leonard Williams (30), Byron Murphy II (22), Jarran Reed (32)
Cornerbacks (CB) Arizona Cardinals: Will Johnson (22), Max Melton (23), Garrett Williams (23) * Los Angeles Rams: Darious Williams (32), Ahkello Witherspoon (30), Quentin Lake (26) * San Francisco 49ers: Tre Brown (27), Renardo Green (24), Deommodore Lenoir (25) * Seattle Seahawks:* Nick Emmanwori (21), Riq Woolen (26), Devon Witherspoon (24)
Safeties (S) Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Thompson (26), Budda Baker (29) * Los Angeles Rams: Kam Curl (26), Kamren Kinchens (22) * San Francisco 49ers: Ji’Ayir Brown (25), Richie Grant (27) * Seattle Seahawks:* Julian Love (27), Coby Bryant (26)
Ranking of average starter age by position group (youngest to oldest)Quarterbacks (QB)
- San Francisco 49ers: 25
- Arizona Cardinals: 27
- Seattle Seahawks: 27
- Los Angeles Rams: 37
Running Backs (RB)
- Seattle Seahawks: 24
- Los Angeles Rams: 24
- San Francisco 49ers: 26
- Arizona Cardinals: 27
Tight Ends (TE)
- Arizona Cardinals: 24
- Seattle Seahawks: 24
- Los Angeles Rams: 26.67
- San Francisco 49ers: 27.67
Wide Receivers (WR)
- Arizona Cardinals: 25.67
- San Francisco 49ers: 26
- Los Angeles Rams: 26.67
- Seattle Seahawks: 28
Offensive Line (OL)
- Seattle Seahawks: 24.6
- Arizona Cardinals: 26
- Los Angeles Rams: 28
- San Francisco 49ers: 29.6
Edge
- San Francisco 49ers: 23.5
- Seattle Seahawks: 25
- Los Angeles Rams: 25.5
- Arizona Cardinals: 26.5
Linebackers (LB)
- Seattle Seahawks: 25
- San Francisco 49ers: 26
- Arizona Cardinals: 27
- Los Angeles Rams: 27
Defensive Line (DL)
- San Francisco 49ers: 24
- Los Angeles Rams: 26.67
- Seattle Seahawks: 28
- Arizona Cardinals: 30.67
Cornerbacks (CB)
- Arizona Cardinals: 22.67
- Seattle Seahawks: 23.67
- San Francisco 49ers: 25.33
- Los Angeles Rams: 29.33
Safeties (S)
- Los Angeles Rams: 24
- San Francisco 49ers: 26
- Seattle Seahawks: 26.5
- Arizona Cardinals: 27.5
Ranking of Starting Offenses (Youngest to Oldest):
- Arizona Cardinals: 26.69
- Seattle Seahawks: 26.85
- Los Angeles Rams: 28.23
- San Francisco 49ers: 28.38
Ranking of Starting Defenses (Youngest to Oldest):
- San Francisco 49ers: 25.75
- Seattle Seahawks: 26.50
- Los Angeles Rams: 26.75
- Arizona Cardinals: 27.67
Ranking of Average Age of All Starters (Youngest to Oldest):
- Seattle Seahawks: 26.68
- San Francisco 49ers: 27.12
- Arizona Cardinals: 27.16
- Los Angeles Rams: 27.52
Biggest assumptionsThere were a few positions where educated guesses were made about who would be the starters. For Seattle, the interior offensive line is in flux, but whether Christian Haynes, Anthony Bradford, Sataoa Laumea or Bryce Cabeldue win the right guard spot won’t have a huge impact on average age. Jalen Sundell and Olu Oluwatimi are the same age at center, so that battle is a draw when it comes to age.
Tory Horton or Jake Bobo could push Marquez Valdes-Scantling for snaps as the third receiver, which would reduce the average age considerably for that group. Boye Mafe and Derick Hall were the starters last year, but if DeMarcus Lawrence and/or Uchenna Nwosu grab starting spots, that would increase the age of the edge group. If Josh Jobe winds up getting more snaps than Nick Emmanwori, that would increase the age of the CB starters for Seattle.
For San Francisco, it may be a big assumption that both of their rookie defensive tackles win starting spots. If one of them falters, that would increase their average age. There is also some guessing about the third cornerback position and the safety to replace injured Malik Mustapha.
The Rams may wind up with different starting linebackers and corners. Arizona could have a different edge opposite Josh Sweat, and their rookie linebacker may win a starting spot. It is also possible Will Johnson does not win a starting spot at corner.
Generally, though, these feel like relatively stable predicted starters across the board.
ObservationsSeattle Seahawks: Young Overall, Second-Youngest Offense: The Seahawks project to have the youngest overall starting roster and the second-youngest starting offense in the NFC West. Their starting defense also skews younger than the Cardinals and Rams.
San Francisco 49ers: Oldest Offense, Youngest Defense: The 49ers project to have the oldest starting offense in the NFC West. However, they also boast the youngest starting defense, highlighting a significant age disparity between their offensive and defensive units. That does not typically bode well for a team that fancies itself a Super Bowl contender.
Los Angeles Rams: Experienced Offense and Oldest Overall: The Rams have the third-oldest starting offense and the oldest overall starting roster. That was surprising given how young the Rams feel on defense and along their offensive line, and running back group. Their defense has a more moderate age profile, slightly older than the Seahawks and 49ers.
Arizona Cardinals: Youngest Offense, Oldest Defense: The Cardinals have the youngest starting offense in the NFC West. However, their starting defense has the highest average age in the division, showcasing a clear contrast in the experience levels of their offensive and defensive units. Their defensive line skews things, but their safeties are “middle-aged” and there is some of that in their edge and linebacker group as well.
This age analysis provides a useful snapshot of where each team stands in their respective transitions as the NFC West’s evolution continues. Whether it’s the Seahawks embracing a youthful offensive core, the 49ers betting on a fresh defensive wave, the Cardinals balancing a young attack with veteran defenders, or the Rams navigating an ongoing shift, clear strategic bets are being made. The coming seasons will reveal how these investments in youth and experience ultimately shape the fiercely competitive landscape of the NFC West. Keep watching, because the next chapter of the division is just beginning to be written.
The bye week is meant to be rejuvenating. Players get away from the game, heal up, and return to work with vigor. That has seemed to be the case for most players on the Seahawks. One player has yet to make it back. Connor Williams was absent for the second straight practice with the reason listed being “NIR – Personal.” Meaning, it is not injury related. The team does not have to release injury reports for the practice they had on Monday, so it is not clear if he was here for that practice. Whatever the reason, his absence leaves a huge gap in the middle of an already struggling Seahawks offensive line.
Being away from the team for personal reasons does not mean Williams will not return tomorrow and be ready to start on Sunday. At a minimum, it is not ideal to have a player who has had numerous snap issues that involved both physical and mental errors for him and his quarterback to be missing practice time.
The offensive line has been under fire all year. That is nothing new for Seahawks fans. The hope had been that the bye week would give the team some time to self-scout and regroup. Mike Macdonald said “everything was on the table” prior to the week off.
He proved how serious he was by waiving his leading tackler and starting linebacker, Tyrel Dodson. Macdonald acknowledged they considered an equally tectonic move on Monday when I asked if they looked into moving Williams to right guard and starting either Olu Oluwatimi or Jalen Sundell at center.
“[We have], but we’re staying put right now,” said Macdonald.
The logic behind the move is straightforward: Williams has struggled with snaps at center, he was an above average guard for Dallas, and Anthony Bradford has been a major problem at right guard. You have the potential of addressing numerous problems, and realistically, how much worse could it really be?
The downsides include getting Geno Smith acclimated to another center, the multiple moving parts leading to new chemistry and communication issues, and the likelihood that the center position could become as big of a weak spot as the right guard position has been.
Oluwatimi entered camp as the expected starter but lost the job, in part, due to lack of power in either pass protection or run blocking. Sundell was an undrafted free agent who was not expected to make the roster, but had an impressive camp. He has been asked to backup at center and at the tackle spots, which is a rare level of versatility.
It is unclear which player would act as next man up this week as there have been weeks where Oluwatimi has been inactive on game day, meaning Sundell was the backup. Seahawks coaches have implied that was largely due to the positional flex that Sundell provides. Oluwatimi is really only an option at center, even if the team has tried cross-training him at guard.
Oluwatimi has far more reps with Smith and has started an NFL game before. The team might want to lean on his experience even if they see more promise in Sundell.
Of course, the best case scenario for the team is that Williams returns. Short of that, the best guess is Oluwatimi would get the start on the road against a physical and talented 49ers defense. It would represent a golden opportunity for him to turn around a career that was starting to point toward career backup, at best.
Sundell would be the higher risk, higher reward choice. His floor could be very low as a small school rookie who has never played an NFL snap, let alone started. His ceiling, though, could exceed Oluwatimi as an athlete. He looked more stout in 1v1 pass rush drills during camp and clearly has the feet and quickness to have coaches comfortable with him as a backup tackle even when they have players like Jason Peters and McClendon Curtis on the practice squad.
It is the latest in a season full of the unexpected, and often unwanted, twists. The team will almost certainly say more tomorrow when they release the final injury report for the game and Macdonald does his Friday press conference.
One of the most fascinating aspects of the NFL season is watching two teams play each other for the second time. Adjustments are made. Location and field changes. And despite the same two logos appearing on the uniforms, the players wearing them usually have changed. All of these will apply when the Seahawks travel to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers five weeks after they Thursday Night matchup in Seattle.
Seattle was in first place in the division entering that game, but had lost two straight. They are now in last place, and are under .500 for the first time after losing 5 of their last 6 games. The 49ers had lost their first two division games and were reeling at 2-3. They won that game convincingly and have won two straight as they try to climb back into the division race.
Both teams will look massively different on the field. San Francisco has lost a star player in Brandon Aiyuk, and welcomed back a star player in Christian McCaffrey. The Seahawks defense will look almost completely different, with at least eight players joining the fray who did not play in the first game.
Seattle was embarrassed on their home field in week six. Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf had games they would like to forget. Smith threw an interception on the first series after the Seahawks had driven down to the 49ers 25-yard line. Jordan Mason had the first of a number of explosive rushing plays on the next series when he broke out for 38 yards to key a 90-yard drive for a field goal. The 49ers would tack on a 76 and 77-yard touchdown drive as they went ahead 16-0.
The Seahawks would eventually fall behind 23-3 before a kickoff return for touchdown by Laviska Shenault Jr. (who had fumbled earlier) and 94-yard touchdown drive pulled Seattle within one score at 23-17. Seattle had two straight possessions with a chance to take the lead, but a poor route by Metcalf led to an interception.
Seattle lost the turnover battle 3-0, had their quarterback and best receiver struggle, surrendered an eye-gouging 228 yards rushing, and still were in this game into the late fourth quarter. Seahawks fans would like to believe that was an aberration, but there have been a number of games where Murphy’s Law seemed to rule the day this season.
The 49ers have not yet found the same dominant gear they hit last year or the year prior. A beat-up Bucs squad nearly stole a game this weekend, even with McCaffrey back in the lineup. The Tale of the Tape will show you that the 49ers are the superior team in nearly every way.
There are some intangibles that make this a more intriguing game than most will believe. Seattle played their most impressive defensive game before the bye week, and seemed to have found some backbone against the run. They are coming off a bye week where the coaching staff had plenty of time to prepare and adjust for this game. Smith knows he has yet to beat this team and is coming off a performance where he apologized to the city for letting them down. The most leaky part of the offensive line, right tackle, could get a big lift if Abe Lucas plays as expected. Metcalf returns after missing two games and his receiving partner, Jaxon Smith-Njigba found a new gear while he was out.
The 49ers are rightly favored by 6.5 points in this one. Nobody gives the Seahawks a chance. Most people are expecting a blowout. I think Seattle surprises everyone and shocks the 49ers at home.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
Changes since last matchupPerformance trendsThere were so many changes since the last game that I decided to capture them in this new section of Tale of the Tape. The first part attempts to get a feel for which players are playing better or worse than they were when these two teams faced off in week six. Week 6-10 performances are included in the second column, and the difference between their early season grades and more recent grades show in the final column.
It was a little surprising to see that most players on the Seahawks offense have seen their grades improve. It is worth noting that Stone Forsythe will not play in this game, and Noah Fant is likely out as well. Improvement is relative. The actual grades for the offensive players are pretty unimpressive. Anthony Bradford has seen an increase in his grade, but he’s still a below average guard. No Seahawk is above an 80.0, which denotes Pro Bowl level play.
Renardo Green has made a major step forward for the 49ers, and is playing a near elite level at corner. That has helped the 49ers pass defense make big strides. Malik Mustapha has fully taken over the starting safety spot and has been playing solid football. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner have dropped off after playing at All-Pro levels.
Brock Purdy has come back to earth a bit. He had a 3 interception game against the Chiefs and has thrown just 3 touchdowns since playing Seattle. He has 6 turnover-worthy throws in the last three games after having just 4 in the first six. He has also fumbled in each of the last two games and been sacked 5 times.
Part of that is due to a big step back from Trent Williams, who went from elite to above average. As goes Williams, usually goes Purdy. Colton McKivitz, the other tackle, has also struggled recently. In fact, every linemen regressed except for rookie Dominick Puni. Brandon Aiyuk has been replaced by Ricky Pearsall, who has roughly the same grade (68).
Riq Woolen has had a disastrous two game stretch that has torpedoed his grade. Julian Love has regressed after an elite start to the year. Derick Hall took a big step back and has not been the pass rushing presence he was when the season started. The only players who have improved are Byron Murphy II and Coby Bryant. These tables do not show the new players, however, so let’s talk about who will be stepping in for both teams.
Lineup changes
All of the talk will be about the changes for the 49ers. That makes sense when you add the reigning offensive player of the year back to the lineup in McCaffrey. Pearsall is a different player than Aiyuk who presents different pros and cons. He did just have his first touchdown against Tampa.
Kevin Givens has missed two straight games with a groin injury. His availability for this week is unknown. George Odum got the majority of starting safety snaps versus the Seahawks, but he got zero snaps against Tampa on defense. Mustapha has taken all of those snaps.
That is a lot of change. The addition of Lucas on the offensive line could be a huge difference. Even if Lucas is rusty and not his former self, he almost certainly has more to offer than either Forsythe in week six or rookie Mike Jerrell. Forsythe gave up 10(!!) pressures in the first matchup. That is a low bar.
This defense is basically getting a fresh start. There is less that is the same than there is that has changed. Johnathan Hankins will still play, but Murphy has jumped him in snaps and was not available in week six. Roy Robertson-Harris was acquired after the 49ers game and represents a big upgrade over Mike Morris physically. Dre’Mont Jones was asked to play a fair amount of defensive tackle in week six, and has now returned to being an edge.
Boye Mafe played limited snaps against the 49ers as he was returning from injury. He should be fully back. The whole starting linebacker corps has changed over. Earnest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight are upgrades against the run, and possibly in coverage. Woolen missed the first game. Josh Jobe had not yet played. Coby Bryant was not getting meaningful snaps and Jerrick Reed II is poised to get his first snaps on defense with K’Von Wallace going on IR.
This is going to feel like watching a season opener when the Seahawks are on defense. There is a lot of unknown, and most of it seems like an improvement.
DVOANew this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
The 49ers have every edge except for special teams, defending WR2, and defending RBs as receivers out of the backfield. Their run defense (20th) is not great, and their run offense has been far less efficient this year than in the past.
Seattle has dropped in defending WR3, but it will be interesting to see if that changes with the increased playing time for Jobe. Tight end pass coverage will be worth monitoring as well with two new linebackers and two new safeties in the mix.
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
49ers key advantages on defenseBosa is a monster who feasted on Forsythe and the Seahawks OL to the tune of 14 pressures. Warner is still the best inside ‘backer in football even if his heroic plays have slowed. Green is becoming a great corner and Mustapha has become a quality safety.
This is a more sound defense than the one that came to Seattle. There are not a lot of easy plays to be made.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseBelieve it or not, Smith has the most passing yards by far against the 49ers this season. His 312 yards far exceeds Sam Darnold’s 268 yards. Patrick Mahomes only threw for 154 yards and had 2 interceptions with 0 touchdowns. Smith did not just pile up numbers in garbage time. He had most of his yards by the end of the third quarter, and did it despite having his most inaccurate game of the season where he missed some easy throws he normally makes.
He should have his full compliment of weapons back. They may be more effective on the ground with Lucas at right tackle. His run blocking was always more impressive than his pass protection.
It sounds like the Seahawks may do more work from under center, so there could be some advantage for Seattle early on if they find success with formations and plays the 49ers have not seen on tape.
Seattle gained the second-most yards and scored the third-most points of any offense against this 49ers defense even with three turnovers.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offensePurdy was under a ton of pressure by the Seahawks in the first game but managed to wriggle out of it time and again. He now has his favorite target back in the fold with McCaffrey, and is getting more comfortable throwing to Pearsall.
Jennings played his first game at the X spot against Tampa and was terrific. Samuel has routinely terrorized the Seahawks, as has George Kittle. San Francisco continues to have an overwhelming number of weapons on offense and a playmaking quarterback.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThe improvements on the defensive line and at linebacker are considerable. That group, minus Knight, had a terrific game against the Rams. The run defense was stellar. If they can win the line of scrimmage in this game, fun things could happen for Seattle.
They generated 26 pressures when these teams played last. Jones led the team with 6. Reed and Williams had 5 apiece. Add Murphy to that mix and get the edge players going again and there is reason for some optimism. They did all of that without defending the run. Any type of early down success could unlock some of Macdonald’s more exotic pressures as we saw against the Rams when Seattle had the most unblocked pressures of any team in the NFL that week.
Woolen, even with his recent struggles, is a huge upgrade of Pritchett. Witherspoon is coming off his most complete performance. Jobe will be tested.
Jones IV is a huge upgrade at middle linebacker. Knight should be an upgrade in run defense.
Special Teams
Seattle has the edge on special teams. Jake Moody missed three field goals before making the game winner last week. The 49ers punter is hurt and may not play. That could impact holding for kicks.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
News broke that the Seahawks had waived leading tackler Tyrel Dodson on Monday. It is not common for teams to waive their leading tackler partway through a season, especially when there were no disciplinary issues. It is even more uncommon to part ways with both starting inside linebackers within a few weeks of each other, as Seattle did when trading Jerome Baker in the deal for Ernest Jones IV. The quick hook for both free agent additions led many to immediately bemoan the Seahawks decision to let former 1st round pick, Jordyn Brooks, leave for the Miami Dolphins. That angst is understandable, but misdirected.
The undeniableJohn Schneider made the decision to prioritize Leonard Williams and the defensive line position over the inside linebacker position. He has stated that publicly. He also made the decision to sign Dodson and Jerome Baker, and neither player worked out.
It is never a good thing to pay players who perform below expectations. The team got almost nothing out of the Baker signing. He was injured all of OTAs and training camp, missed games during the season due to injury, and was a bad fit when he was on the field. Dodson was more of a mixed bag, but he seemed out of his depth in the Mike Macdonald defense that asks a lot of the inside linebacker position.
There are linebackers who were free agents last year who have outperformed both Baker and Dodson. Blake Cashman has been terrific with the Vikings in coverage and as a run defender. Azeez Al-Shaair has been a big addition to the Texans defense. Bobby Wagner has played elite run defense and been a plus pass rusher for the upstart Commanders. And Jordyn Brooks has been a solid addition for the Dolphins.
There have also been linebackers who have not been great for their new teams. Patrick Queen had a great game against the Commanders, but has been largely disappointing in Pittsburgh. Kenneth Murray has not worked out in Tennessee. Devin White flamed out in Philadelphia. Eric Kendricks has been nothing special in Dallas. De’Vondre Campbell has been a disaster in San Francisco. Denzel Perryman has been mediocre with the Chargers.
Judging a free agent decision purely based on player performance is too simplistic. There are a number of factors to consider.
Price and flexibilityIt would be easy to assess a general manager if everything was equal. They are not. Different players command different prices. Your decision as a GM is not just figuring out which player is better. It must include cost of acquisition.
Too many fans focus on single season prices when looking at the Seahawks linebacker decisions this off-season. Dodson and Baker will wind up costing between $10-11M, depending on whether Dodson is claimed off waivers by another team. People compare that to the $8.75M average price per season for Brooks and cry foul.
Comparing the salaries of two players to one actually helps explain part of the logic Schneider likely used in arriving at his decision. The team needed two starting inside linebackers. The 2024 price of the two players who played the position for Seattle last season was $16.25 ($6.5M for Wagner, $8.75M for Brooks).
A $5M-$6M difference is significant. It is a little more complex than that given that Brooks signed a multi-year deal, which reduces his cap number in 2024 significantly. But that cuts both ways. You also had to be willing to commit more money to him over more years than Baker, Dodson, or Wagner. You had to be willing to make him the 12th-highest paid linebacker in football.
That is where flexibility comes into play. Mike Macdonald joined as a first-time head coach who had a defense that is known to put a lot of emphasis on the linebacker position. Was he ready to commit to multiple years for Brooks? He may have preferred to have an opportunity to evaluate the player in his system before making the bigger commitment.
It would be far worse to be stuck with a player you do not want for multiple years than to swing and miss on players who you can walk away from at any time
Schneider and Pete Carroll demonstrated this concept in the extreme during their first season in 2010 when they churned through hundreds of players to see if there were any they wanted to keep. The regrets generally come more from players you cannot walk away from than those you do not sign long-term.
The goal, though, is to accumulate talent. Did Seattle miss out on a game-changing player in order to preserve some cash and flexibility?
Player performanceBrooks is a solid linebacker. He is physical and a plus defender in the run and the pass. He has also never made the Pro Bowl or been an All-Pro. Dodson was as far from a 1st-round pick as you can be. Buffalo signed him as an undrafted free agent and he only played special teams for most of his time there before getting a chance to start the last half of 2023. He has a number of flash plays, and was considered one of the better players on the Bills defense when he was out there.
Let’s take a look at how they have performed so far this season.
Neither player has been a standout this season. Brooks has been a favorite of some film watchers who appreciate the way he handles certain coverage responsibilities. As important as that might be, it has not made Brooks the impact player some perceive him to be.
He has not been the player to force a key turnover, make a game-changing stop or pass breakup or sack. He does not even clearly separate himself from Dodson in a variety of measures related to run defense, pass coverage, or pass rush.
There is almost certainly solid evidence that Brooks is a superior player to Dodson if you broke it down on film. That is not the bar. Is there evidence that he would: (a) be a standout player for the Seahawks (b) be worth the price difference over the course of their contracts (c) be a clear enough core player to make a multi-year commitment?
Brooks was not a Pro Bowl level player when he was on the Seahawks. Seattle still had one of the worst defenses in the NFL while he was here. He is not on track to be a Pro Bowl player for Miami.
It is possible that Brooks would be flourishing in a different way under Macdonald’s coaching, but he is playing for a Macdonald disciple in Miami, so that feels like a stretch.
The Ravens had two All-Pro level linebackers in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. Queen was another free agent possibility. Macdonald did not pound the table for him. He has also not clearly been worth the contract he signed.
Wagner and Cashman are arguably the guys who have most earned the money they were given. Macdonald and Schneider made the decision to start younger, and likely with more coverage range than Wagner can offer. Cashman feels more like the one who got away, but it is hard to know if he was even open to joining Seattle.
Failing forwardIt would have been ideal for Dodson and Baker to work out in Seattle. Even if they did, the likelihood was always that only one would be signed to a long-term deal. The team drafted Tyrice Knight and would probably go back to the draft again rather than sign two veterans to expensive contracts at the linebacker spot.
Instead, they used one of those draft picks (4th round) to acquire Jones from Tennessee. He showed more in two games than either Dodson or Baker had in their time here. He was the second-best linebacker in the NFC West last season, and is only 24-years-old. The team now has the guy they clearly will want to sign to that long-term contract. It took three bites at the apple, but it does appear they have found an impact player in the middle of their defense who can also act as a leader.
Knight is just 23-years-old and has already shown some promise as a seek-and-destroy run defender. He will have the balance of the season to prove whether he should be the default starter next season. Otherwise, the team can go back to the draft again. Should Knight show promise, the Seahawks will a young and athletic linebacking pairing that could be in place for years.
Had they kept Brooks, they almost certainly would not have made the deal for Jones since he will require the multi-year deal they will only want to give one player at that position. Would the Seahawks be better off with Brooks and Knight or Jones and Knight? Hard to say, especially without knowing the Jones contract cost, but it is at least as likely the team is better off with their current duo than the hypothetical. And signing Brooks would not have granted Macdonald the flexibility to test drive the players before committing.
Brooks is a good player. He has not proven to be great. The only players truly worth anguishing over losing are the great ones. Seahawks fans have to hope Jones and/or Knight rise to that level.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating18 Votes3.3Imagine being offered a delicious meal with the one condition being you had to drink spoiled milk with it. Imagine a great massage from one person while another stabs you with tiny needles. Seahawks fans do not need to imagine this fusion of joy and pain. It flows through us like The Force, providing the power to shake the earth or shed enough tears to end a drought. Seattle lost their fourth straight home game and fell to 0-2 in the NFC West. There were so many awful and inexcusable mistakes in this game to provide limitless fuel to anyone wants to see the exit of Geno Smith, John Schneider, Mike Macdonald, Ryan Grubb, etc. Part of the reason those mistakes were so painful was Seattle was the better team in all three phases for much of the game, something the Seahawks have rarely been able to say against a Sean McVay Rams team.
There are two ways to respond to a game like this, in the midst of a season like this. You can decide this is not the right coach, the right quarterback, the right general manager and call for them, or some combination, to be replaced. The evidence in favor of turning against Macdonald is that this team continues to play sloppy football nine weeks into the season, the defense he is known for has largely been bad, and they are losing at an alarming clip. The case against Smith is that he has made back-breaking mistakes at critical moments that cost his team the game yesterday and now has almost as many interceptions (10) as touchdowns (11). He is also 34-years-old, and coming up on the final year of his contract. John Schneider put a target on his back by brazenly saying interior offensive linemen are overpaid and overdrafted only to see the Seahawks offensive line be the one of the worst in football for the bazillionth straight season. He also has exited the draft with an inferior class to the Rams for two straight years and the 49ers this year.
Signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!The criticisms are fair and each man has practically been handing pitchforks to angry fans with some of their decisions and with the performances on the field. Here is where I am on each of those key decisions nine weeks into a 4-5 season.
Mike MacdonaldMacdonald was the coach I wanted before he was hired. I only gained more confidence and respect for him as I got to speak with him and understand his perspective on people and the sport. That game against the Bills, though, broke my spirit. It was the latest in what felt like an endless string of terrible defensive performances that involved non-existent run defense. Even the win over Atlanta included plenty of Falcons rushing success despite the final score.
I was dreading attending this game against McVay and Kyren Williams and a Rams offensive line that has done a good job of run blocking. Macdonald has been consistent in saying the run defense was like a puzzle and it was eventually going to fit together. The puzzle pieces felt so far apart and mangled that we might not see them come together until next year.
Then, this happened.
Seattle stifled the Rams run game. Where I had lowered my expectations to hope the could just hold them under 120 yards rushing as a sign of progress, they held Los Angeles to 68 yards, and 2.8 yards per carry. There were no runs of 10+ yards. Nearly 80% of the Rams rushing attempts when for 5 yards or less. Nearly 50% went for 1 yard or less.
There were no big mistakes or missed tackles. Seattle was not just acceptable against the run. They were dominant.
That combined nicely with some pressure calls Macdonald dialed up in the first half to get free rushers on Matthew Stafford and force incompletions.
The Rams had their full slate of skill players in the first half who helped them beat the Vikings at home in their previous game. Seattle held them scoreless on their first four possessions. One of those possessions started at midfield after an interception. No Pete Carroll defense had ever accomplished that against McVay. I doubt many defense have accomplished that against McVay.
Seattle forced seven three-and-out possessions for the game. Only one defense had managed to do that to McVay during his time with the Rams. In other words, it only happened 1 time in 115 games (0.87%) for the Rams. The last time the Seahawks forced that many three-and-out drives was in 2017, and they only did it twice between 2012 and 2023.
McVay was the one coordinator who seemed to get the better of Macdonald last year, even in a Rams loss to Baltimore. The inverse happened in this game.
The Seattle defense frustrated the Rams offense all day. The Seahawks special teams had a huge play with a blocked punt and some great coverage. The missed extra point was pivotal, but the overall performance was impressive.
The only way a Macdonald tenure will be successful is if he can produce a great defense. Early returns were mixed, but the arrow was pointed down. This game changed that trajectory. It is fair to point out there were not any sacks, but the pressure was there and the results were impressive.
Macdonald made the decision to hire almost all coaches he had not coached with before. Some of that was due to his youth and lack of time to build those relationships. Some of it was due to being hired so late in the off-season, and having less choice. Some of it was because his hiring coincided with Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL and taking a lot of the Michigan staff with him. And some of it was many of his former staff getting hired as defensive coordinators elsewhere in the NFL.
The newness of this staff has to be contributing to the sloppiness. Ryan Grubb is coaching in the NFL for the first time, as is Scott Huff and Jay Harbaugh. There is a lot of adjusting going on. Carroll changed over part of his staff after his first season in Seattle, including his offensive coordinator and offensive line coach. It would not surprise me if Macdonald made some adjustments this offseason. Grubb is someone I continue to believe in, and do not see greener grass elsewhere. We might find that Macdonald and Grubb did not mix as well behind the scenes. That would be the only reason I could see a change being made.
Some fans like to compare Macdonald to Jim Mora Jr. That reflects poorly on the memories of those fans. Mora Jr. never had that team showing promise and never had the locker room. That 2009 squad lost their final four straight by a combined score of 123-37. The players gave up on him. There was nothing schematically interesting or evidence of progress.
If Macdonald oversees 3-4 more of those Buffalo games the rest of the season, than we can revisit this comparison. For now, it is baseless.
We spent seven years wishing Carroll could find some way to slow down McVay. He never did. Macdonald did it in his first game against him in the midst of a season when his defense was in a tailspin. That is a coach I want to see get many more chances, including a full offseason, before reaching for a pink slip.
Support our sponsor and signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Geno SmithSmith is a person I root for and respect. I wear his jersey to games with pride. He showed once again how unshakeable his will to win is by driving the team down the field to tie the game in regulation.
He also made mistakes you simply cannot make in this game. His arm was hit on the interception return for touchdown and A.J. Barner was held on the second red zone interception. He was under pressure a season-high 59.1% of the time, per Next Gen Stats. The run game still was not helpful enough in big moments.
Still, Smith’s internal decision-making process is too skewed toward taking risks. He held the ball longer in this game. He tried to eek out every millisecond to let a play develop despite almost instant pressure snap-after-snap.
He needs to take fewer chances when under pressure. He needs to throw the ball away more. He needs to take a few yards on a check-down or even just take the sack more often. The same unbending confidence that allows him to respond to adversity and make miraculous throws is working against him on these turnovers. There needs to be a higher priority put on protecting the ball, even if it comes at the expense of points.
Many fans are ready to see Sam Howell. That would be a mistake. The locker room knows how much better Smith is than Howell and most NFL quarterbacks. Macdonald needs to let the season play out. If Smith continues to turn the ball over multiple times each game, the decision will make itself.
The Seahawks are unlikely to offer Smith an extension after this season if his play remains this erratic and turnover-prone. He could hold out, but ultimately, Seattle could force him to play the final year of his deal and even consider a franchise-tag the following year if they do not feel there is a successor ready.
He is someone I continue to believe is capable of far superior play if he could ever play behind a line that is not the worst in the game. You will not hear me calling for Howell or being eager to see Smith’s time here come to an end.
John Schneider The state of the offensive line is the one part of this picture that is truly inexcusable. Schneider has struggled to scout and assemble a good offensive line for his entire tenure. If he is stubborn about sticking to his guns about interior offensive line play, the Seahawks need a new general manager.
I think he will change his approach. Macdonald, Grubb, and Huff will have something to do with that. Schneider should also be given credit for going against his tendencies in recent years and improving his picks in the first round. Macdonald may have foreshadowed that changes could be coming sooner than the offseason in his postgame press conference when asked about the play of the offensive line.
“We’re not there yet by any stretch of the imagination,” Macdonald said. “I thought the guys
played hard. We’ve been playing hard up front. But that’s going to be part of what we’re looking
at over the next week.”
That sounds like a coach who has decided they do not have the right players. Saying they are playing hard while calling out how far off they are seems like a capability indictment. There could be another trade made. It does not seem like lineup changes make much sense, but they should not be ruled out. There are generally reasons players are lower on the depth chart, so be careful about calling for guys you have not seen.
Abe Lucas will be need to be activated after the bye week or he will revert to IR for the rest of the season. Even if he is activated, he may not play for a while.
This team will never get close to where they want to go until this unit is addressed. It is holding back the quarterback, the run game, the receivers and the defense. Schneider should have the chance to mesh with these new coaches and prove that he has changed his perspective on addressing the interior offensive line.
Odds and endsYou need look no further than Jaxon Smith-Njigba for evidence that fan ire is often not based in fact. Smith-Njigba was being panned by many who thought he was not showing enough to be worthy of his draft status. He was leading the Seahawks in receptions heading into this game, and is now tied with D.K. Metcalf for the lead in receiving yards after a stellar 180-yard game. He could have had over 250 yards receiving if not for two big plays being called back, the first one on a phantom holding call.
Smith-Njigba is not going to be your #1 receiver. He is not going to wow you with speed or strength. He will get open often, make tough catches, and be creative after the catch. At just 22-years-old, folks need to understand that he is well ahead of the development curve at the position.
Cody White had a terrific game as well in his first shot up from the practice squad. He took almost all of Jake Bobo’s snaps and may have pushed Bobo down the depth chart with how he played.
Devon Witherspoon felt like he played his best game in a while. His run fits were so much better and his coverage was solid. Many are hating on Riq Woolen. I thought he played a very good game until the last drive. Even then, he was exactly where he should be to make the interception and made an understandable, if not good, decision to wait for the ball to come right to him. One of his best plays was on a swing pass where he tracked the receiver all the way across the field and brought him down for a short gain. People who think Woolen is the problem have not seen corner play elsewhere. This team is better for having Woolen on it, and the potential for him and Witherspoon and Julian Love to grow together is still something to be excited about.
Coby Bryant deserves a callout for a really nice game and Kam Chancellor-esque hit to break up a pass at the end of regulation.
What’s nextMacdonald and crew get a bye week to lick their wounds and decide how they want to approach the stretch run. Success will be less about wins and losses, and more about whether he can build on the defensive performance we saw against the Rams. This offensive line feels pretty hopeless. Once Lucas comes back, he should help, but we do not know when that will be.
The maddening part is that this team is capable of winning every game left on their schedule with just mediocre line play. They will get Metcalf back. Ernest Jones and the defense will have more time to get in sync.
There is a path toward an encouraging end to the season. There is also a path where things fall apart beyond repair. I expect it to be the former.
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Hawk Blogger · POSTGAME: Seahawks Blow It Versus Rams
My thirteen-year-old legs could not move fast enough. We were climbing the seemingly endless ramps that encircled the Kingdome to reach our seats. The muted gray concrete was in sharp contrast to the crystal blue waters of the Puget Sound and cloudless blue sky that accompanied the hike. Finally reaching the entrance to our section felt like a movie in slow motion. I could hear the buzz of the crowd before we reached the doorway. It grew louder and clearer as we entered and saw the bright green field with shiny silver helmets of players milling about. Electricity crackled in the air. Everywhere you looked was a bright blue Seahawks jersey or cap or sweatshirt. The noise we generated together once the game began, fused with the product on the field to create a bond between fans and players who had never met and likely never will. I don’t remember if the Seahawks won or lost. I do remember feeling like I belonged, like screaming my head off was welcome and not weird. That was my first Seahawks home game. It would not be my last.
My first purchase when I moved to Seattle after college in 1997 was two season tickets. The venue eventually changed from the Kingdome to what is now Lumen Field, but the experiences remained epic. I was there when the noise caused an NFL record 11 false starts against the Giants. I was there when the noise was unleashed on the Carolina Panthers in the first NFC Championship game in Seattle. I was there when the earth shook from a beastly run. I was there when the mighty 49ers tried the best corner in the game with a sorry receiver and helped send the Seahawks to their first ring. I was there when Aaron Rodgers’ smug face turned sullen after a historic collapse. I was there the last two home games when Bills and 49ers fans were so large in number that Geno Smith said it felt like playing on the road.
What has happened to one of the most storied home field advantages in all of sports? I started my research with that question in mind. What I found led me far beyond the city limits of Seattle.
The obviousAll home fields are impacted by the quality of the home team. Enthusiasm for a bad team is hard to muster. 49ers fans call themselves, “The Faithful,” but have famously left their stadium half-full during lean years. When asked about the increase in opposing fans at recent Seahawks home games, coach Mike Macdonald wisely identified the role the team plays in generating excitement and demand.
“We have to win,” Macdonald said. “We got to win, period. Opposing fans won’t want to show up if we’re consistently kicking butt and doing what we’re supposed to do. Our fans are doing a great job and they’re sticking with us all the way through the end of the game I know we’re fighting and they’re fighting with us and we have to do a better job of putting a product out there that they want to root really hard for.”
It is true the Seahawks have lost three straight at home. They are 15-15 since 2021 at home. They are 14-15 on the road. They are mired in the messy middle of NFL mediocrity, and that does not exactly stoke fan fervor. The franchise has gone through worse times than this, though, and still always managed to be a better team at home.
Seattle went 52-76 from 1991 to 1998 in a stretch that included the worst season in franchise history (2-14 in 1992) and two botched 1st round picks on quarterbacks (Dan McGwire, Rick Mirer). Even then, they were a .500 home team (32-32) and well below .500 on the road (20-44).
Seattle went without a playoff win for 22 years between 1984 and 2006, and Seahawks fans remained loud and vibrant, going 108-68 at home versus 71-104 on the road.
Something beyond wins and losses is eroding the Seahawks home field advantage. It turns out, this is not just a Seattle phenomenon.
Home field advantage decaying across the NFLTeams performing better at home has been close to a sure thing in the NFL. In fact, if you look at every franchise one decade at a time during the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, there are only two examples where a franchise had a lower winning percentage at home than on the road over the course of a decade.
The San Francisco 49ers win rate at home was roughly 13% lower between 1980 and 1990 than on the road. Of course, that was in large part due to a dynasty stretch where they went an astounding 63-20 on the road, a 76% win rate. They were still 55-29 at home. The other example was the New Orleans Saints between 2000-2009, who were below .500 (38-42) at home and above .500 (45-35) on the road.
I looked at 123 discrete home and road comparisons for franchises in every decade starting in 1980 and ending at 2020 (table below). Just 2 of the 123 (1.6%) had a lower winning rate at home than on the road. Things have changed dramatically in our current decade.
Since 2020, nearly one out of every five teams (18.8%) have a home record that is worse than their road record. Another three teams have identical home and road records. That means 28% of NFL teams no longer have a home field advantage.
There is some noise in the data as a few franchises moved to new stadiums along the way or even new cities. Houston, for example, had the Oilers in the ’80s and came back as the Texans down the line. The Raiders were in Los Angeles, Oakland, and now Las Vegas. The results are still eye-opening.
Source: pro-football-reference.comEven with the mediocre play over the last few years, Seattle still has a bigger home field advantage than a number of teams, including the 49ers. They have, however, fallen relative to other franchises. Seattle had always been in the top half of the NFL before this most recent decade. They ranked 11th in the 1980s, 13th in the 1990s, 6th in the 2000s, and 14th in the 2010s. They have fallen to 21st in the 2020s.
The Seahawks home field erosion is just a part of the larger picture. Collectively, home field advantage is disappearing in the NFL.
It peaked during the ’90s when teams won, on average, at a rate that was 49% higher at home. That number has been cut in half.
Oddsmakers have noticed this change as well. It was common knowledge that home field was worth three points when Vegas would set the lines for games. That no longer is the case.
Source: https://www.nfeloapp.com/tools/nfl-home-field-advantage-hfa-tracker/The home team has been getting as little as a one point advantage from oddsmakers in recent years. The Seahawks had been well above the league average, but have fallen in line the last few years.
One of the joys of watching your favorite team in their home stadium is that you could generally count on them being their best and opponents being their worst. As that becomes less and less of the reality, the draw to attending those games lessens. That can create a vicious cycle where fans choose to stay away or be less engaged which further reduces any advantage.
There are a number of underlying factors contributing to this troublesome trend.
Game changesCrowd noise has always been considered a primary reason why it was harder for opponents to conduct their offense on the road. That has meant that home offenses operate more cleanly and score more while opponents struggle and score less. That remains true, but the home and road splits have been narrowing.
Source: pro-football-reference.comDefenses had been allowing an average of 13% fewer points at home than on the road in the 1980s. That has decreased in each decade that followed.
Teams had been scoring 16% more points at home than they were on the road. That dropped the next two decades before flattening out the last 15 years.
One football innovation that has likely contributed to this trend is the silent count. Howard Mudd is credited for inventing the silent count. He came up with it, in part, due to his time with the Seahawks in the 1970s and ’80s.
John Alt, a former offensive tackle for the Kansas City Chiefs in from 1984 through 1996 and father of Chargers rookie tackle Joe Alt, explained the challenges before the silent count.
“When we would go to Seattle, in that dome, it was a tremendous problem,” said John Alt. “It took away a lot of your offense. You couldn’t audible the way you normally would. And for those of us playing tackle, well, you’ve got a defensive end running forward [at a ridiculous speed] while you’re trying to block him a half-second late running backward. The line coach would be yelling, ‘Watch the ball! Watch the ball!’ But you just couldn’t do it.”
Mudd may have invented the silent count, but it was Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday who perfected it at the turn of the century. It took some time for other teams to refine and master it, but the outcome has been a reduction in false starts and increased comfort in running your full offense.
Source: pro-football-reference.com (limited years of data)There is some noise in false start data given that teams have false starts at home and the road, but the general trend from over 3 false starts per game on average in 2005 to below 2 per game in 2020 is clearly down.
Seahawks fans have taken pride in having an impact on the game with noise. Beyond forcing the Giants into a record number of false starts in 2005, they traded Guinness World Records for decibel levels in an open air stadium with the Kansas City Chiefs. It has become harder to feel that impact.
“My wife and I have been going to games regularly since 2012,” said season ticket holder Tyler Lawrence of Ephrata, WA during a town hall meeting I held. “Our fandom was forged in the fires of the young [Legion of Boom] and Russell Wilson era, and being a fan at that time was fun and as exciting, and you felt like you had a tangible effect on the game. Like me being at that game or not being at that game felt like there was a direct impact on the outcome of that game. It doesn’t feel that way anymore.”
Consider that when Seahawks fans set the record for noise in 2013, the decibel level was 137.6. The team has shown the decibels this year during recent games and it barely climbs over 100 at key moments.
Crowd noise has been a source of pride for Seahawks fans, and the silent count has muted the impact to some extent. Road teams also now enjoy the comfort of chartered flights, have learned about the importance of sleep patterns to combat jet lag, and have better ways to stay connected with loved ones when away from home. It is easier than ever to be a road team.
The more concerning trend is home fans choosing not to attend in larger numbers.
Experience “not the same”Lawrence and his wife are part of a large cohort of fans who came in during a peak period of winning with a Seahawks team so talented it may never be matched. It would be easy to dismiss that cohort of fans as spoiled when they say the experience on game day is not as enjoyable as it was when they first got their tickets. The evidence indicates they are not alone.
I surveyed 100 Seahawks season ticket holders. Over half of them have had their tickets for 16 years or more. Nearly half (47%) of those longtime season ticket holders said they do not enjoy attending games as much as they did when they bought their seats. That is much higher than the 32% of fans who bought their seats in the the last 15 years. In other words, the longer you have been a season ticket holder, the more likely you are to feel the experience has degraded.
Team performance and ability to impact the game were raised as important factors for why the experience has declined. In particular, the Seahawks porous defense has made it feel pointless to cheer and depressing to attend.
A number of fans raised frustrations with the lack of continuity in their sections with either opposing fans buying up seats or single-game fans coming to be entertained more than to participate.
“I sit in a section and a lot of the people around tend to sell their seats,” said season ticket holder Jason Anderson of Maple Valley. “They just do it on the [Ticketmaster Exchange] so you can go to any game you want and you typically get an opposing fan in front of you who just gets absolutely inebriated and sometimes they get threatened to get kicked out, sometimes they don’t. But it’s just a constant recycling of things. And at some point it’s gotten to the point now where I won’t even take my kids to any sort of national game just because things can get really out of hand, and a lot of times it is the opposing fan base that just randomly bought a ticket to go to that game for the day.”
Sports betting and fantasy football has led to more people taking an interest in a game for reasons other than team loyalty. The loudest and most obnoxious person in my section at the Bills game was wearing a Packers jersey and screaming about the money he had on the Bills.
The quality dip for the in-person experience is coinciding with better at-home experiences, making the cost-benefit equation of going to a game less appealing than in the past.
A comfy couch and a big screen TV, though, are not really new. This influx of single-game fans is. The reasons behind that change are largely financial.
The almighty dollarPaul Allen bought the Seahawks in 1997, and his first act as owner was to slash the prices of the cheapest seats in the Kingdome to $10. I bought two season tickets for a total of $200. They were the last row of the Kingdome on the 50-yard-line, and I could reach up and touch the roof from my seats.
Allen made the decision to cut the prices as he spoke with fans during the ballot measure campaign to fund a new open-air stadium.
“During the campaign, we learned that making professional football more accessible and affordable to families was important to fans across the state,” Allen said back in ’97. “I hope this enables more fans than ever to attend this year’s games.”
It accomplished exactly what Allen intended. It was raucous and silly and endlessly noisy up there. People sitting in those seats were folks like me, a new college grad with no money in the bank, or blue collar folks who lived for Seahawk Sundays.
NFL franchises have lost touch with the notion of keeping ticket prices affordable enough that any fan can dream of being a season ticket holder. The equivalent seats at Lumen Field have gone up over 1000% since 1997. Median household income levels have only risen 118% in that time, per US Census data. This is not a Seahawks-specific issue.
Source: Financebuzz.comThe Seahawks have, however, been above the NFL average in raising prices. The cheapest seats for a new season ticket holder would be roughly $2000 for two tickets. Lower level tickets on the sidelines would cost anywhere between $4,000-$10,000 for two seats.
That has the compounding effect of: (a) targeting wealthier consumers (b) making it more appealing to try and recoup some money by selling tickets to popular games. The team made that even more tempting by introducing variable pricing in 2014.
The single game price for a top tier ticket to see the 49ers play in Lumen Field was a whopping $917, whereas the same seat against the Cardinals costs just $282. That leads many season ticket holders looking at the math and realizing that selling the most high-priced games, even at face value, could recoup a big chunk of their season ticket prices. That creates a situation where your most important home games are the most likely to be sold by season ticket holders.
Seahawks 2024 variable pricing per game Source: https://static.clubs.nfl.com/image/upload/seahawks/fled4mmoul7bkzorqxjwSecondary market services like StubHub.com and Ticketmaster make selling tickets easier than it used to be even 10 or 20 years ago. They also offer no control over who makes the purchase.
Almost 50% of season ticket holders I surveyed said they would choose an option that allowed them to sell only to Seahawks fans if the option existed, even if it was for less money. Another 39% said they would use it if it allowed them to sell at their asking price.
The rising ticket cost, the variable pricing, and the ease of digital sale platforms is leading to an increased supply of tickets on the secondary market. Demand is coming primarily from opposing fans, and sometimes from people who have a betting interest in the outcome.
The highest willingness to pay for a single game ticket tends to be opposing fans who are either traveling to attend the game or only get to see their favorite team play in Seattle once per year or less. Buffalo, for example, played just their second game in Seattle in the past 20 years. Bills fans who live in Seattle or who were making the rare cross-country trip were far more likely to shell out top dollar than a local who can see the Seahawks any week.
There is another systemic challenge that is driving more fans to sell their seats.
The drawback of primetime Monday Night Football burst onto the scene in 1970 and helped the NFL accelerate momentum across the country. It became a ritual for many families to sit down on a Monday night together and watch the only football game being played.
The NFL started toying with another primetime game slot in 1987 when they aired the first Sunday Night Football game. By 2006, they added Thursday Night Football, albeit limited to those who had the NFL Network. They expanded Thursday Night Football in 2014 and made it available in more households.
This led to a big influx of revenue and more primetime games for fans to watch on TV. It also meant more games during the weekday where commuting to and from the game is far more arduous and often more expensive.
“One of the things I’ve really loved about the Seahawk [Sunday afternoon] experience is just driving into Everett and taking the Sounder [train],” said season ticket holder Andrew Taylor of North Vancouver, British Columbia. “It’s such a drag when you have Sunday night games or a Monday game or a Thursday game and you can’t [ride the train]. It changes the whole nature of the experience that we have to come in on a Thursday and deal with rush hour traffic, and driving through Seattle. It changes the whole feeling of the game. It goes from a low stress to a high stress experience. It’s just a huge, huge difference.”
A number of the season ticket holders I spoke to commute to the games over long distances like Andrew. Tobias Russ comes from Los Angeles. Bennett Smith comes from Boston. Lots of fans come from eastern Washington. Multiple people were driving from Vancouver, WA. Their return trip Sunday was a nightmare not only because of the loss to the Bills but the 45 car pileup in Kent that shut down I-5 South for hours.
Even for people who live in Seattle or Belleuve, getting to a evening game during the work week is challenging.
Add commute headaches for primetime games to variable pricing, inflated ticket prices, and the simplicity of secondary market selling. Getting paid to stay home and watch the game starts to sound pretty appealing.
What may surprise some is that a lot of the seats being sold are not coming from fans. Another entity is involved.
Personal seat licenses backfireSports tickets used to be a pretty simple choice of either purchasing season tickets or purchasing a single-game ticket. Someone decided that was not lucrative enough and invented the Personal Seat License (PSL). This diabolical scheme asked people to purchase a license for the seat at exorbitant prices, which gave the purchaser the right to then…still purchase season tickets. How exorbitant? There are horror stories of fans who had been long-time season ticket holders of the New York Giants being asked to pay $20K per ticket for the PSL and then another $7K for the season tickets.
The PSL fee is a one-time fee, and the premise behind it is that purchasers now own a transferrable license to the seat(s) they buy. They can pass it down to a family member or sell it on a marketplace.
Not all seats requires PSLs. They tend to be reserved for the best seats in the stadium. People spend money on all sorts of silly things, so why should fans care if someone doles out a bunch of money for a PSL?
Well, the nature of a PSL is that the owner can sell their license as they wish. What happened in Seattle was that a large number of PSLs (they are called Charter Seat Licenses at Lumen Field) were bought not by fans, but by ticket brokers.
Ticket brokers never planned to use the seats for themselves. They are constantly going to the highest bidder. The Seahawks have no legal recourse to reclaim the seat the way they could if it was a normal season ticket.
The highest concentration of these seats are on the 100 level visitor sideline where most TV camera shots show the stadium. That highlights the problem and perpetuates the idea that huge numbers of Seahawks fans are selling their seats.
The only way that will change is if the demand among Seahawks fans rises higher than the demand from opposing fans. That demand is directly tied to team performance, both the Seahawks and the visiting team.
There may not be a solution to the ticket broker problem. There do seem to be some ways to reverse the increased sale of seats by season ticket holders.
Ways to reclaim home fieldThere is not one simple solution to bring back the magic of home field advantage. There are some lessons to learn from franchises that are bucking the trend.
Weed out disengaged fansThe Dolphins have seen an increase in their home field advantage over time while the Broncos have managed to maintain their edge better than most. Both the Dolphins and the Broncos have instituted penalties for season ticket holders who either sell their seats too often or sell their seats for a profit. Fans have had their tickets stripped or have not been allowed to renew.
The Seahawks have not gone that far, but have put restrictions on who can buy Tunnel Club seats or special Gameday Experiences. Only fans wearing Seahawks paraphernalia are allowed. I think a lot of fans would be supportive of broadening that requirement to more sections.
Create opportunities to sell to home team fansA number of fans mentioned that they only feel comfortable selling their seats on the Ticketmaster exchange because that is the only method that protects them from being liable if the person who buys the seats misbehaves. A season ticket holder could lose their seat if they sell through another platform and the person who buys the seat violates stadium rules.
The Seahawks have a Blue Pride waiting list for season tickets. Working with Ticketmaster to integrate those accounts with a flag that indicates they are Seahawks fans would open up the door for a ticket exchange feature where users could choose to restrict their sales to home fans or at least limit to home fans until a specified time when the seat will be released to any fan as it gets closer to the game.
Ticketmaster might not want to enable a feature that would allow sellers to take less money from home fans as it could cut into their fee revenue which is tied to sale price. They could, though, allow sellers to opt-in to paying the same fee even while taking a discounted price for home fans. It would reduce seller profits, but many fans would make that trade.
Everybody loves money, but a lot of season ticket holders are passionate about home field advantage and would take less money to help preserve the experience and increase the odds of a Seahawks win.
Incentivize loyaltyThere is already a lower price for fans who have been long-time season ticket holders. There is an opportunity to create more incentives for loyalty. If teams like the Dolphins and Broncos are punishing bad behavior, why not reward fans who attend every game or a certain percentage of games over a certain period of time?
The advent of digital mobile tickets allows teams to know whether fans are attending games and whether they are transferring tickets.
Create an exclusive club with various levels and benefits for fans who hold onto their tickets and attend regularly.
Rewards could include: lower ticket prices, a free parking pass for a game, complimentary gameday experiences, training camp VIP tickets, discounts on food and drink at the stadium. Given all the perverse incentives described that are contributing to fans feeling more reason to sell their seats, it only makes sense that providing more rewards to keeping them is necessary to combat the behavior you are trying to avoid.
Bring back cheap seatsMost of these suggestions are made with the knowledge that businesses are always going to try and maximize revenue and profit. They can be done without hurting the bottom line, and in some cases, could help it. This is not one of those suggestions.
Allen was right that football is best when attendance is accessible to everyone. A requirement of Referendum 48, the bill to fund the construction of Lumen Field, was that the team “sell at least 10 percent of tickets for all team football games at the average of the lowest priced tickets in the National Football League.” My understanding is the Seahawks meet this requirement by selling 5% of season tickets at $77 per seat, and another 5% are sold as single-game tickets ranging from $35.99-$120 depending on the quality of the game.
I think they should go further. It may not be possible to have $10 seats any longer, but how about $50? Allen bought the Seahawks in 1997 for $194M. The franchise is currently valued at about $5.5B.
Valuation is not cash flow, but I would like to think there is a way the team could offer more season tickets at lower prices that were restricted to only Seahawks fans with the same paraphernalia rules as their experience packages without jeopardizing the business. Maybe a multi-year commitment could be required to get these cheaper seats.
There are a lot of hard-working folks who will never be able to afford the prices the Seahawks are currently charging. We need more fans invested in the game and fewer folks invested in checking their crypto balances or Slack messages.
Eliminate variable pricingThe team could make all these other changes and it would be hard to overcome the problems created by variable pricing. It is almost financially irresponsible to keep all your seats when selling two out of ten could cover so much of your total cost.
The most likely people to pay those prices are almost always going to be opposing fans except during times when the home team is truly contending for a Super Bowl. That is not a common occurrence, even for the most successful franchises.
If it is not financially feasible to eliminate variable pricing, at least dramatically reduce the degree of variability between games so it is not as tempting to sell. Short of that, make the prices for division games your lowest price to give your team the best chance to win the most important home games.
A simple decision made complexThe decision I make about whether to attend a Seahawks home game has always been pretty simple. If they are playing, I am there. There are the very rare occasions where something supersedes it like this year when my son was running his first marathon.
As much as I love the Seahawks and watching a game in person, it has been less fun the last few years. Primarily, that is due to the product on the field. The defense, in particular, has been soul-crushing. I have been through down times, though, and still enjoyed attending games.
The community aspect of coming together with people who start as strangers, but become familiar faces or even friends, is no longer a constant I can count on. The feeling that we are going to collectively rise and fall with the team has dissipated as more single-game fans and opposing fans take up space.
The NFL is losing home field advantage. It is not good for the sport, which will ultimately be bad for the business. Some of the tectonic shifts are irreversible. That does not mean the situation is beyond repair. There is a kid going to his or her first NFL game this Sunday. The best chance for that kid to fall in love with seeing the sport in person is for the home team to win, surrounded by cheering fans.
Seattle has been one of the jewels of the NFL for decades. USA Today recently ranked Lumen Field #1 among NFL stadiums. That reputation has been tarnished this season. It is not an aberration. It will not correct itself. Winning will help, but it is not enough. The same way communities rally to preserve landmarks or natural beauty that represents a region, the home field advantage that caused an earthquake is worth saving.
It will take effort from the team, the ownership, and the fans. There is no better time to start than right now.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 338: Fed Up
The Los Angeles Rams make the trip to Seattle this week for what has become an overly hospitable venue for opposing teams. The Seahawks have lost three straight at home and have played some of the worst defensive football the stadium has seen during that time. It is rare for a team to wait until Week 9 to play their second division game, but that is the situation for Seattle. As disappointing as the Seahawks have been so far this season, the opportunity remains for them to change the narrative should they find their footing and win the majority of the five division games they have left to play.
Los Angeles has had their own adversity thus far, largely due to a series of serious injuries to key players. Even after getting their star receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back last game, they still are without two of their starting offensive linemen and their best safety. It may not matter.
The Rams could be any team, with any coach, and any quarterback. If they have a running back who can put one foot in front of the other, there have been acres of room to run the football against this Seahawks defense. Seattle has allowed 838 yards over their last six games, good for 31st in the NFL. They have allowed a 49.7% success rate, also good for 31st. Teams are getting everything they want, whenever they want, and the Seahawks have showed no indication they are even making any progress toward stopping it.
Les Snead took a very different tack than John Schneider. He spent a second round pick on a guard/center last year and then spent significant free agent dollars on two guards this year. One of those guards and the draft pick are on IR. Sean McVay has found a way to run the ball either way. Kyren Williams and the Rams offensive line is 10th in the NFL in rushing DVOA. They are 12th in rush EPA. It is hard to imagine the Seahawks holding up against an above average run game.
That does not even factor in Matthew Stafford at quarterback, their talented receivers, or their offensive genius head coach. Other than wishing on a star that something changes for the Seahawks run defense there is not much logical reason to expect a Seattle win in this game.
Los Angeles has a faulty defense. Seattle should be able to score more than the 10 points they scored last weekend if they can avoid tripping over themselves. Without a running game of their own, it is unlikely they will outscore a quality offensive opponent that gets to face this Seahawks defense.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOANew this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
The Rams are a mediocre team with serious flaws on defense. Kenneth Walker III did not have the game Seattle needed from him against a Bills defense that did not defend running backs well. He gets another shot this week.
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Rams key advantages on defenseJared Verse is having a terrific rookie season and may be the best player on that side of the ball already. Kobie Turner should have a good game against the interior of the Seahawks offensive line. Los Angeles made a change recently to help their secondary by benching veteran free agent Tre’Davious White and inserting Cobie Durant. White has been given permission to seek a trade.
Rooke Braden Fiske is second only to Verse in pressures by rookie defenders this season and should have success against the Seahawks inside. Bobby Brown III is a nice young nose tackle who could help plug the run.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseD.K. Metcalf should be back and the Rams have nobody to cover him. The Seahawks receivers have good matchups all around. The question is whether the Seahawks can protect long enough to get to them.
Walker and the Seahawks tight ends should have advantages against the linebackers and safeties as well.
Ryan Grubb has struggled to find a way to run the ball while also utilizing the tempo shotgun package they have featured. Seattle has very little chance of winning if they cannot find a sustainable run game this week.
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offenseStafford is smart and tough. His receivers make tough catches and Nacua breaks tackles. Seattle has struggled to tackle well all year. McVay will see plenty of weaknesses to attack. The rankings above are misleading given much of the poor performance came before the Rams got their receivers back.
Los Angeles can come in with almost any game plan and feel confident they can score points.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle should be able to get more pressure this week. Stafford will hold the ball and is not someone who breaks outside the pocket. The offensive line struggles to pass protect. Derick Hall and Boye Mafe should have bounce-back games. Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams should be bigger factors as well.
The potential to disrupt the passer will only matter if the team figures out how to defend the run.
Special Teams
Seattle has slowly been improving on special teams all season. Michael Dickson is finally getting back where he belongs near the top of net yards per punt after spending a long time near the bottom.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating18 Votes0.6Love is romanticized in society. One of life’s great quests is finding someone you love who also loves you. Sports love belongs in its own category. You can fall in love with a player or a team without it being reciprocated. You can ignore your love for days, weeks, months or years, and still return to it with a white hot passion. Commitment is demonstrated not by wearing a ring or exchanging vows, but by wearing team colors and spending valuable time and money on your beloved. What those who seek love may be less familiar with is the torment that can come when you allow your soul to be intertwined with another. Seahawks fans are experiencing that this season in a way that feels unique throughout franchise history. Hope and despair are waging a vicious battle that is abusing the hearts of those who love this team. Despair scored a decisive victory on Sunday.
The Seahawks exited last season as a mediocre team that played terrible defense, had an awful offensive line, was easily overpowered, and often embarrassed when facing elite competition. Eight games into this season, nothing appears to have changed.
Signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Three times the Seahawks have faced a Super Bowl caliber opponent. Three times they have been humiliated. It is true that Seattle gave the Lions their best game in a month. It is true the Seahawks had the ball twice in the fourth quarter against the 49ers with a chance to take the lead. It is also true that the performances in those games would result in not just a loss, but a blowout loss, in most cases.
There are various aspects you want to see in a football team:
- Are they tougher, more physical, than their opponent?
- Are they more uniquely talented and capable of things their opponent is not able to match?
- Do they play with energy and passion?
- Are they creative with their strategy and tactics?
- Are opponents having to adjust to them, or are they having to adjust to opponents?
- Is there something they do better than any other team in the league?
- Do they correct mistakes?
- Are they the smarter, more disciplined team?
- Does the sum feel like more than the parts?
- Does their success feel repeatable?
- Do they rise to the occasion in prime time and against elite competition?
The most disheartening aspect of this Seahawks season is there have been multiple opportunities for the team to give fans some reason to answer positively on at least some of those questions, and instead, they have left each of those games with a negative answer to nearly every one.
Let’s start with the most basic problem. The Seahawks cannot stop the run. They have allowed 155+ rushing yards in four straight games, and have been dominated on the ground six of their eight games. Nothing interesting is possible if you cannot stop the run. It is so bad that when an opponent gets fewer than five yards on a carry it feels like someone should pop open a bottle of champagne.
Mike Macdonald was brought to Seattle with the promise of improving the defense. His inability to stop the bleeding against the run is troubling. The Ravens had trouble defending the run the latter half of last season even as they were the most dominant defense in football. Macdonald talked about the “run wall” he wanted to build being the foundation of his defense this off-season. Fans would settle for a “run speed bump” at this point.
There is no way a team with Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Jarran Reed, Roy Robertson-Harris, Derick Hall, and Boye Mafe should be this bad against the run no matter how bad the linebacker play is behind them.
This front should be a problem for opponents every single week. They are more often found on a the back of a milk carton than in an opponent backfield.
Run defense is not glamorous. It will not get people paid well. It is also the most basic necessity for being a competitive football team. The same way having a front door and locking it does not guarantee your safety, run defense does not guarantee you will beat your opponent. Not having it almost certainly guarantees the bad guys will take anything they want.
There are so many things going wrong with the team that it could be overwhelming to decide where to start. Let me help. Stop. The. Run. Stop it.
Support our sponsor and signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!We can make it even simpler. Keep runs on 1st down under four yards. Do whatever it takes for that to be true. Since Week 4 when the Seahawks played the Lions, opponents are rushing for 4+ yards 46% of the time on 1st down. That ranks 31st in the NFL. The top mark in the NFL is 17%. Middle of the road is 36%. Start there.
Of course, there is so much more that ails this team than run defense. The offensive line found new ways to be a disaster on Sunday. The Bills run defense has been suspect, and was missing their best linebacker in this game. The longest run by a Seattle running back came when Kenneth Walker III fumbled a pitch, picked it up, and ran the opposite way the play was designed to go for a whopping five yards. Connor Williams managed to hike the ball over Mount Rainier from inside the 5-yard line, and also trip his quarterback from the 1-yard line.
Believe it or not, the Bills only got pressure on 28% of Smith’s drop backs. That is the lowest mark of the season for this beleaguered group. There just was no running room. Seattle finished the day with a -0.70 EPA/rush, which was the 3rd-lowest single-game mark by any team in the NFL this season.
This gets to the primary aspect of why loving this team is so hard right now. They are bullied on both sides of the ball. It is hard to beat your chest when it is being caved in each week.
John Schneider is someone who I like and respect. His process for assembling this interior offensive line, however, has been frustrating. This team would look very different with even one competent veteran guard. It feels like another season has been irreparably damaged by a faulty offensive line.
Ryan Grubb deserves some blame for the horrible display we witnessed Sunday. His lack of creativity in the run game and stubborn reliance on shotgun formations is a problem. What is difficult to separate is just how much his play calling is limited by what he sees on that offensive line. Calling more complex run schemes when your team cannot block simple ones is probably foolish.
Teams like the Panthers, Rams, Giants, Jets, and Commanders spent big money on free agent offensive linemen this season and are getting varying results. It is true that the only thing worse than having a bad offensive line is being stuck with an expensive and bad offensive line. The one thing Seattle has going for it is some flexibility to change things up.
As of right now, it looks like they missed on their 4th round pick in 2023 (Anthony Bradford) and their 3rd round pick this year (Christian Haynes). Both players are young enough that they may have a magical off season that helps them step forward. The problem is that both are starting from a pretty low level of play. There would have to be a huge improvement to get from where they are to above average starter.
Beyond the inability to win in the trenches on either side of the ball, which is super fun, there is not a single Seahawks player who seems capable of lifting the team out of a tailspin on the field.
Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Williams, Murphy, Mafe, Hall, Walker, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Julian Love are all players who are meant to be foundational pieces. Show me a moment when any of them have stepped forward and lifted the team up with a special play when things were going wrong. Heck, show me a single special play in the entire game yesterday from that group (sans the injured Metcalf).
Mike Holmgren used to always say you need your best players to have their best seasons to do special things. The Seahawks best players are doing their best Homer Simpson backing into the hedges meme impression when they are needed most.
That is a gigantic red flag. It is fair to point fingers at Macdonald and the entire coaching staff right now. Coaches are responsible for the product on the field. It is fair to point fingers at the front office for personnel decisions they have made. Most concerning, though, is that there is nobody on this defense who has shown the will or talent to stop the bleeding. The same can largely be said on offense, but Smith has stepped up multiple times this year in those situations.
Smith once again, however, failed to look like a player who deserves to be compared to other great quarterbacks. He also made reference to the noise from opposing fans in his postgame comments. The team better be careful there. Fans are under no obligation to spend their time and money on a team that has lost three straight at home and is embarrassing themselves. The last thing the team needs is acrimony between the players and the fans.
What everyone could see yesterday was that the terrible self-inflicted wounds by Seattle were not the reason they lost. They were outclassed. The Bills were a far superior team, and they do not have a superior roster. Buffalo has a much better offensive line. They have a much better quarterback. They had a better receiving corps in this game with Metcalf out. That’s really it. Where the Lions and 49ers have either better rosters or far more blue-chip talent, the Bills dominated the Seahawks in every facet without the talent advantage in many areas.
That is an indictment of the coaching staff. They get some grace in their first season working together and with this team, but the only honest assessment is they are struggling. It is also indictment on the players. Do your job. Win your rep. Lift your teammate. Correct your mistake from one week to the other. Work before practice. Work after practice.
Seahawks fans love this team. Many have loved it for decades, or even lifetimes. They do not need it to be the best team in the NFL every game or every season. They can love a flawed team that fights and claws, and ideally punches above their weight class from time-to-time. Just a flicker of what a young player or group could become if given time to develop can sustain fans through tough times. This Seahawks team is unearthing those flashy diamonds one week and then burying them under a ton of rubble the next. Torment is part of what proves love is real. Willingness to stick around when the object of your affection is at their worst is the entrance fee for true joy when they are at their best. Seattle does not need to win a certain amount of games or make the playoffs for this season to be a success. They do need to prove they love each other, this game, and this city enough to improve. Our next date is Sunday against the Rams. Don’t ghost us this time.
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One of the most memorable moments of this off-season for Seahawks fans was the night of February 9th. John Schneider had made the big decision to hire Mike Macdonald as the new head coach just ten days earlier, and the newly minted duo had immediately turned their attention to what would probably be their next most important hire. Rumors had started spreading about Ryan Grubb leaving Alabama to come back to Seattle even after he had been announced to Crimson Tide boosters as their new coordinator. Then, news broke by way of Twitter drive-by photography that Schneider, Macdonald, and Grubb were having a drink at Dino’s Pub. Two days later, Scott Huff joined his friend Grubb as the new offensive line coach. These two men will have a massive influence over the direction of the Seahawks. Some of those changes are already being felt.
Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards. His 1,985 yards passing is the third-highest total in franchise history in the first seven games of a season. The names of other quarterbacks to do that over the last few seasons are guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. D.K. Metcalf has 568 yards receiving, ranking 4th in the NFL. He is on pace for a career-high 1,379 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the team in receptions (37), and is on pace for a career-high 90 catches. He and Metcalf rank 11th and 12th in the NFL in receptions.
All of this is happening during a season when the NFL has seen passing yards per game (209.8 yards/game) drop to the lowest level in decades.
Seattle ranks 8th in scoring, but has scored 23+ points in six of their seven games, which is tied for the league lead. They are also one of only four teams to score at least 20 points in every game this season.
Kenneth Walker III ranks 4th in the NFL in touchdowns. He is on pace for a career-high in receptions (56) and touchdowns (15). That, despite missing two games due to injury and playing one game while ill.
You might expect jubilation amongst Seahawks fans given these sterling numbers, but the general sentiment has been a shoulder shrug or even disappointment. Never mind that Mahomes and Jordan Love are tied for the league lead in interceptions or that Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa are making teams question their massive contracts. Seahawks fans seem unimpressed.
Grubb inherited a mixed bag. Smith and the skill players around him are excellent. The offensive line was far from it. That is where Huff comes in.
There was no guarantee Huff would agree to join Grubb in Seattle. Was it a hard choice?
“No, no,” Huff said during a recent conversation after practice. “I mean, obviously the opportunity to coach at Alabama in terms of college football is awesome. I loved my time at University of Washington, but to get an opportunity to coach for the Seattle Seahawks, yeah, that was a no brainer. It was the opportunity of a lifetime.”
Huff and his wife moved to Seattle eight years ago and learned quickly what the Seahawks mean to the city.
“The first thing you figure out really quick when you have kids is like [Blue] Fridays,” Huff said. “Like you got to get the kids Seahawks gear or they’re outcasts at school.”
One of the big differences between college and the pros is the breadth and depth of the personnel department. Most general managers will work closely with coaches to acquire players who fit what the coach is looking for at their position. This is especially true with the offensive line.
Seahawks fans know well how vastly different offensive line draft choices can be depending on who is the coach. Tom Cable was known for drafting players he could mold into what he wanted as opposed to finished products. He would go as far as taking defensive players like J.R. Sweezy and converting them to offensive linemen.
Schneider has taken the heat for the Seahawks poor track record in drafting offensive linemen, and the process is ultimately his responsibility. That said, collaboration with the line coach and his ability to develop players is crucial to building a good line. Huff is adjusting to that partnership.
“We had a personnel department at UW,” Huff said. “Obviously not nearly the size as we have here, but, you know this organization is first class. I think more than anything, you’re just trying to learn and see how they see things, what we see, from your background or recruiting and stuff, but it’s been awesome.”
It will take some time to see how that pairing develops. Seattle spent three draft picks this year on offensive linemen. Two of them were later round selections in Mike Jerrell of University of Findlay and Sataoa Laumea from University of Utah in the 6th round. That both made the initial 53-man roster is a good sign. That Jerrell has developed enough to get a two starts as a rookie is an even better sign. Huff was pleased with his protege’s first start.
“I was really encouraged,” Huff said. “It’s crazy what confidence does for anybody, right? We always say confidence is cash. You can tell right away that he was starting to figure it out and get some confidence. Was it perfect? No. Is it a great starting point? Absolutely.”
Laumea has been asked to convert from a college tackle to a guard, and the team spent a third-round pick on another guard in Christian Haynes, who has been rotating with second-year player Anthony Bradford. Laumea is a player Huff has known for a while.
“Sataoa was a guy that I had actually recruited a little bit when he was coming out of high school,” Huff said. “We ended up filling up [our scholarship spots], but he was a guy that I really liked. So once he went to University of Utah, we obviously played in the same conference and had a lot of respect for the football program. He was known. He was a really good player.”
With Jerrell, it was the raw potential that caught his eye.
“You could just see like the athleticism jump out on tape,” Huff said. “It was smaller school football, but you’re like, geez, you know, big guys that can move like that, it doesn’t matter where they’re from.”
Fans want to see everything fixed instantly. The state of offensive line talent in the NFL makes that difficult. What you hope to see is the ability to identify talent and develop it. There are some positive and negative early signs.
Charles Cross was the 9th overall pick in 2022 for the Seahawks. He had two middling seasons prior to Huff’s arrival. He has broken out this year, and is playing his best football. Jerrell was someone most teams would not have drafted, but Huff had a hand in his selection and helped him prepare to be the 4th-string starter by week seven after never having played higher than Division II in college.
Neither Haynes or Bradford have seized the starting right guard spot. Each, though, has had moments where they seemed to take a step forward. Both may have had their best games against Atlanta. Macdonald has said the competition seems to be helping them improve so far and that the rotation is still what is best for the team. However, there are some players like Dominick Puni of the 49ers who were taken a few picks after Haynes who have had far more impressive rookie seasons.
Seattle entered the season without any two players on the offensive line having played with the guy next to them. Cross and Laken Tomlinson have at least been healthy enough to work on their chemistry. Connor Williams came in late as a free agent and is just now starting to seem comfortable and confident in his role. Right guards are changing and right tackles are changing.
That won’t stop, but hopefully in a good way. George Fant is close to coming back from injured reserve, and Abe Lucas is tentatively slated to come off PUP after the bye when the team travels to play San Francisco.
The lack of familiarity, the inexperience, and the shifting parts, have made it challenging for the offense to play the way Grubb would like, or establish the identity he seeks.
“I think for this team, with the type of runners we have and things like that, we do want a physical style of play,” Grubb said. “We’ve been emphasizing that quite a bit over the last couple of weeks of what it should look like when we’re finishing football plays. That’s something that me and Mike (Macdonald) are very much linked in a mindset. One of the things that when we were going through this process of getting the offense [to have] more of a physical mentality, a finish mentality that when you put the film on, people are like, ‘Man, that’s going to be a long night.’ We’re just not there yet, honestly, and I know the guys are committed to trying to get through that process and do what’s supposed to be done.”
The return of Lucas could be a big step down that path if he can return to the form he showed as a rookie. Many fans assume he will never be the same player. The less discussed option is that he will be better. That might seem unrealistic, but consider how many players make leaps from their rookie season and how much time he has spent in the weight room preparing for his return. There is no doubt he is a stronger player than he was back then. Whether it translates to the field and he is able to stay out there is another thing.
Grubb has done an admirable job coaching around the challenges on the line. Huff has done well to take on this reclamation project and notch some notable wins while understanding they are far from a finished product. His approach to improving the line happens to match what his vision is for them.
“It’s consistency,” Huff said. “That’s the key to everything. You see there’s some things that are like, ‘Wow, that was really good!’ And there’s things that it’s, ‘Hey, we gotta be way better here.’ It’s just the consistency of the whole thing. And whether that’s the consistency of the lineup or whether that’s just the consistency of how we play, that’s something that we’re striving for.”
Defense is the talk of the NFL this season. Scoring is down for the fifth season in a row. The league has not seen four straight seasons of decline in scoring since 1989-1992, and has never had five straight. A primary contributing factor is the weakening passing offense. Passing yards per game have dropped 15.6% from an average of 240.2 yards per game in 2020 to just 202.8 so far this season. The last time the NFL saw passing yards that low was in 1997, before John Elway had won a Super Bowl or Tom Brady had played a game. In this barren offensive desert, there is still an oasis of lush growth. It resides in the always fertile Pacific Northwest. Geno Smith, Ryan Grubb, and the Seattle Seahawks are on pace for record highs while the rest of the league is trying to avoid record lows.
The last thing most NFL fans heard about Smith was that he was “not writing back” during his Comeback Player of the Year season in 2022 when he set career-highs in nearly every offensive category and led the NFC in passing touchdowns (30). It was a good story, but when his vanity numbers dipped in 2023 and Seattle failed to make the playoffs, many went back to writing him off.
What most of them missed was that Smith made substantial improvements to his game last season. The two biggest were related to his ability to avoid sacks. His movement within the pocket took a clear step forward, and his time to throw dropped dramatically over the final five weeks of the season. Smith had been averaging a hefty 2.97 seconds to throw over the first 13 weeks, which ranked 29th among QBs. He trimmed that to 2.56, starting with his game against Dallas, which ranked 6th-fastest over that span. That improvement has sustained into this year.
Of the 1,410 sacks that happened in the NFL last year, only 16 of them (1.1%) happened in less than 2.56 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
These changes also helped him drop his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.7% in 2022 to 13.9% in 2023. A Seattle offense that had an underperforming and injury-riddled offensive line saw the team sack totals drop from 46 in 2022 to 31 last season due largely to Smith’s improvement.
Still, the Seahawks quarterback registered declines in passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and QBR. It seemed Smith was not immune to the gravitational force dragging passing down around the league. Enter Ryan Grubb.
From Washington to WashingtonGrubb had made a name for himself as a college play caller who maximized his quarterbacks. His second season as an offensive coordinator at Fresno State saw him take Jake Haener from obscurity to a conference-leading quarterback who averaged over 336 yards passing per game. Haener threw for over 4,000 yards the next year, along with 33 touchdowns.
Grubb took his talents to University of Washington when Kalen DeBoer took the head coaching gig in 2022. He once again unlocked the best in a young quarterback when Michael Penix Jr. threw for 357 yards per game and 4,641 yards to lead the Pac-12 after never having thrown for more than 274 yards per game or 1,645 yards in a season. Meanwhile, Haener saw his numbers dip significantly after Grubb departed.
Penix and Grubb made it all the way to the College Football Championship last year before both made the leap to the NFL.
New head coach Mike Macdonald had met Grubb at the NFL Scouting Combine the year prior, and the two had stayed in touch. It was kismet when Macdonald took the Seahawks job the same year DeBoer was leaving Washington for the Alabama job. Grubb had been passed over for the University of Washington head coach position, but preferred to stay in Seattlr and experience the NFL over leaving for Alabama.
Grubb inherited Smith at the quarterback position, and immediately sat down to go through all his film. Not just his NFL games. Grubb watched all of Smith’s college games as well. He came away excited and impressed.
“The ball comes out of his hand so clean,” Grubb told Dave “Softy” Mahler on 93.3 KJR. “I think that for people that haven’t seen Geno throw in person, I think he’s special. And I’ve watched plenty of NFL film on plenty of guys, and Geno’s throwing talent, arm talent, the way it comes out, the accuracy, it’s not [typical]. You get to know him when you start watching him at practice everyday, and you’re like, hey, two years ago, this guy led the league in completion percentage. I’m not surprised at all. I think he’s an elite quarterback.”
The chemistry between the two developed quickly. Smith had the best training camp of his career. Players on both the offense and defense marveled at his command of a new offense, his pre-snap reads, and his trademark accuracy.
Crawl, walk, passThe anticipation was palpable as the season opened against the Denver Broncos at home. Seattle took the opening kick and saw Smith get sacked on their first snap, and then throw an interception on the next. The passing attack never really got untracked in a closer-than-expected 26-20 win over rookie Bo Nix and the Broncos. Smith would finish the game 18/25 for just 171 yards and 1 touchdown to go along with his interception.
His second game would come against a New England Patriots defense that held Joe Burrow to only 164 yards passing and no touchdowns in week one. Smith fared better. He had one of his best games as a pro, going 33/44 for 327 yards, with five of those incompletions coming on official dropped passes, and at least 1-2 more that could have been considered drops as well.
He burned the Patriots deep, short, left, right, and middle. The passing chart was a masterpiece.
His game against Miami the following week was more up-and-down. He was brilliant in the first quarter, helping the team to 17 points and punctuating it with a 71-yard strike to D.K. Metcalf. But the offense stalled, partially due to poor field position and penalties. Smith would still finish 26/34 for 289 yards.
Everyone had the chance to watch Smith play against the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. Smith was brilliant while being constantly under pressure in a hostile environment even when his defense could not get a stop. Smith did not leave with a victory, but did set career highs in completions (38), attempts (56), and yards (395). Grubb and the offense left with the ignominious honor of being the first team to have 38 first downs in a game and lose.
Smith now leads the NFL in passing yards, completions, attempts. He is on pace for over 5,000 yards through the air (5,024), a threshold not reached since Patrick Mahomes did it in 2022.
Grubb and Smith are not doing it alone. Metcalf is on pace for a career-high 102 receptions and 1,556 yards. He became the first receiver in Seahawks history to have three straight 100-yard receiving games after the game in Detroit. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace for 106 receptions—which would almost double his rookie season reception total of 63—along with 961 yards. All this while Tyler Lockett is on pace to catch 77 passes, just two fewer than last season.
Oh, and it’s not just the receivers catching passes. Running back Zach Charbonnet is on pace for 64 receptions and 489 yards receiving.
How is it possible for everyone’s numbers to be up? There are a few key underlying factors.
PaceSeattle was the only team in the NFL last season to run fewer than 1000 plays on offense. Some of this was due to their porous defense never getting off the field, but a lot of it was due to an inefficient offense. Smith points to Grubb’s emphasis on pace and use of no huddle as being key to the uptick.
“I would say just a little bit more of just up-tempo,” Smith said. “The more you up the tempo, the more plays you’re going to get. That’s similar to how it is in college and so we’ve been doing some tempo stuff and been on the ball and been able to sustain drives.”
The Seahawks are on pace to have the 3rd-most offensive plays in the NFL this season (66 per game). A majority of those extra plays are coming through the air (64.4%). At that pace, Seattle would wind up with 127 more plays this season, of which roughly 80 would be passes. Averaging 7.4 yards per pass would mean about 600 more passing yards to distribute.
“I’ve always felt like generating tempo against a defense is, for us, (key),” Grubb said. “We feel like we have more calls than they do. So there are more concepts and schemes that we can run on an uptick versus what a defense is capable of running.”
That is only possible with a quarterback capable of making the proper decisions at the line of scrimmage that the offensive coordinator can trust. Grubb has developed that quickly with Smith.
“That’s numero uno is that you can trust your guy,” Grubb said. “No matter what the circumstances or the play call is, you know that he’s on the same page with you. He’s going to be responsible. At the same time, know the right times to be aggressive. I think that those little gray areas for quarterbacks, that’s where that elite quarterback play comes in is finding the times to be really aggressive, knowing the times not to be, and then managing the team. Geno’s doing all three of those things at a really high level right now.”
Make things simple by adding complexityPace explains some of the increased production, but not all. Smith is completing a career-high 72.3% of his passes so far, second in the NFL. That is up from 64.7% a year ago, leading to more completions and more yards to go around.
Grubb has played an important role there as well. Smith had made a name for himself in film geek circles with his ability to fit the ball into tight spaces. His exceptional accuracy allows him to do things most quarterbacks would not even think to try.
Pro Football Focus has a statistic they call Big Time Throws (BTT) that they define as, “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Smith finished 3rd and 1st in the NFL in BTT rate in 2022 (5.6%) and 2023 (6.0%). One of the challenges has been that Smith sometimes has had too much confidence in his ability to rip the ball into a tight space, which has resulted in what PFF calls Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP). Smith was 3rd in TWP rate in 2022 (4.2%) and 7th in 2023 (3.6%).
While Smith is responsible for some of the positive and negative in those numbers, former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron also shoulder’s some of the blame. He had fewer easy throws for Smith to make, leading his quarterback feeling a greater need to take chances.
Grubb has added more easy throws to the menu, which require less tightrope walking. The result has been a big drop in Smith’s BTT rate (3.3%, 16th), while also cutting his TWP rate (2.5%, 20th). That TWP rate is even a little deceiving as four of his five TWP came in the game against the Lions, and three of those four came toward the end when Seattle was being hyper-aggressive to try and come back. Smith had only one TWP in his first three games combined.
What you now have is all of the elite accuracy that Smith brings to the table with more high percentage throws for him to utilize and less need to put the ball in harms way.
Musical chairs Grubb did not just make things easier for Smith. He made them harder for his receivers. At least, in the beginning. Grubb asked his receivers to learn every wide receiver position. He wanted to make it harder for defenses to plan their coverages against players like Metcalf, who had been exclusively used as an X receiver throughout his career. The transition required a lot of work initially.
“I think the only challenge is that I [had] to learn more plays and more positions,” Metcalf said. “The advantages are that defenses have to stop me on the inside and Jaxon (Smith Njigba), Lock (Tyler Lockett) on the outside, or vice versa. So, I think it just brings in another element that the defense has to stop on our offense.”
Metcalf is on pace for over 150 snaps in the slot, which would be a 50% increase over last season. He’s also lined up in the backfield, which he has never done. Almost 71% of his wide receiver snaps last year came on the left side. He is almost exactly 50/50 on the left and right side so far this season.
Receiver growthMetcalf has also become a more efficient receiver. He focused on becoming better at making contested catches during the offseason after having a career-low 55.5% catch rate last year. He was asked about his stellar catch against the Dolphins cornerback Kendall Fuller in week three.
“I think probably last year I would’ve dropped the ball,” Metcalf said. “But this year I just so happened to catch it. So I think it’s just me taking the next step of making my contested catches whenever Geno (Smith) trusts me to put the ball up there like that.”
He went on to explain some of the work he put in to make it possible.
“Yeah, that definitely was a focus for me this offseason,” Metcalf said. “Contested catches or 50/50 balls going up and attacking the ball instead of trying to let it come down to me and catch it over my shoulder. Geno (Smith) came down and we threw during the offseason and I had my trainer guard me face up and had his arm up and I just had to jump up over him, catch the ball.”
Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba pestered Smith all offseason to throw with him, and has become a favorite target, especially when plays breakdown. Smith-Njigba has rewarded his quarterbacks trust with a 75.8% catch rate thus far.
Sum greater than the partsNot all of these factors will sustain for the season. In fact, some of them the team would like to explicitly change. They don’t, for example, want to be passing 65% of the time or be in a shootout that requires 56 pass attempts from their quarterback.
The combination of Smith’s continued evolution as a quarterback, with Grubb’s sprinkling of simpler passes, increased tempo, and better utilization of his more developed weapons should have staying power.
All of this is happening behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to protect their passer and been inconsistent in creating run lanes. There were some signs of progress there in the last game, and there is some hope things could get better if rookie Christian Haynes continues to earn more snaps and Abe Lucas and George Fant return to take over at right tackle.
If Grubb, Smith, and company are leading the league in passing yards with the line playing at its current level, the Seahawks offense could become lethal should the pass protection and run game improve.
While much of the league continues to wander the desert in search of a drop of offense, Seattle is building a hydroelectric dam to take advantage of the rising river flowing through Lumen Field.
It would be hard for any game to live up to the light show put on by the Seahawks and the Detroit Lions. Daniel Jones and the New York Giants are among the least likely candidates to make for an entertaining matchup. The most notable things about Jones are his inflated contract and constant deer-in-headlights expression. It is hard to imagine any player or fan feels confident when he steps in the huddle.
New York, though, catches the Seahawks at an opportune time. They have had extra rest after playing a Thursday night game, while the Seahawks are not only coming off a short week due to Monday Night Football, but also had a long flight back from Detroit. Seattle is also deeply injured on defense, and we will not know if any of these players will be back this week. Finally, Seattle has to account for another short week game the following Thursday against division rival San Francisco. That will factor into decisions regarding injured players, and may even eat into game planning as coaches will likely work on both games either in unison or at least during the same week.
The Giants will need every edge they can get. This is not a good football team. They have two strengths:
- Malik Nabers, the rookie wide receiver
- Their defensive line pass rush
Nabers is coming off a concussion with some early reports that he is doing well. That is the type of matchup, though, that Riq Woolen could and should win. That leaves the formidable defensive line group of Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Lawrence may be the best defensive tackle in the game. He bullies pretty much every line he faces, and you may have heard the Seahawks have had some challenges on the interior of their offensive line.
Burns and Thibodeaux burn the edges while Lawrence crushes the middle. It is a good formula. It has not been enough to offset a pretty putrid offense that has scored more than 18 points just once when they scored 21 against the Browns. That game included a 30-yard touchdown drive created by the Giants defense forcing a turnover.
The challenge for the Giants is that they are facing one of the best quarterbacks in football, who is playing at an elite level. Geno Smith comes off a great matchup where he shredded a very good Lions defense for almost 400 yards. His best games this season have come against heavy man coverage teams.
New England and Detroit love man coverage. So do the Giants, who rank 9th in utilizing man coverage. New York likes to blitz as well, ranking 4th in the NFL in blitz rate (34.5%). Smith ranks 7th among QBs when blitzed.
Smith excels at finding a good matchup when opponents are in man coverage and just picking them apart with quick throws that negate all but the most immediate pass pressure. Lawrence is the kind of player who can create that immediate interior pressure and just wreck your day. Connor Williams will earn his paycheck in this one.
Ultimately, the Seahawks have the better team, the better quarterback, and home field advantage. Seattle will have to find a way to take care of business and try to have enough left in the tank to battle the 49ers a few days later.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOANew this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
One interesting tidbit here is the Seahawks managed to do at least one good thing on defense against the Lions. They held the Lions formidable running back group to just one catch. That continues a trend where Seattle has defended the pass out of the backfield with the best of them. New York likes to utilize shifty Devin Singletary in space, so that could show up.
Seahawks Offense vs Giants Defense
Giants key advantages on defenseThe defensive line has already been covered, so let’s talk about Andru Phillips. The slot corner has an 83.9 coverage grade so far this year and has been excellent overall. He will represent a tough matchup for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has become Smith’s go-to in quick passing situations. Phillips and Adoree Jackson, another good corner, both missed the game against the Cowboys with calf injuries. If one or both miss this one, it would be a big hit for the Giants.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseKenneth Walker III has only played two games, but they have been magnificent. He leads the NFL in missed tackles forced per game (8.5), and leads the league in 20+ MPH rushes per game (1.0). The Seahawks offense is different when he is on the field, and they started to find some rushing success against a very stingy Lions run defense.
No team had run for more than 83 yards against the Lions. Seattle ran for 133. No running back had rushed for more than 50 yards against them. Walker ran for 80.
We already know Smith can mitigate some of the pass rush with his quick throws. Adding a more threatening run game will further the cause.
New York has a decent run defense, but did give up 133 yards to Brian Robinson Jr. and 215 yards rushing overall to the Commanders, with most of it coming from the running backs. Seattle’s three highest scoring games all included at least 100 yards on the ground.
Seattle should be able to take advantage of Deonte Banks at corner and a rookie safety in Tyler Nubin.
Giants Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Giants key advantages on offenseThe Giants have a much improved offensive line. This is not the same group that gave up 11 sacks to Seattle last year. Andrew Thomas is a very good left tackle. Jermaine Eluemunor is a passable right tackle. Jon Runyan and Greg Van Roten are decent guards. That said, they still have surrendered more pressure than the beleaguered Seahawks line. That is due, in part, to Jones holding onto the ball or making bad pocket decisions.
Singletary enters the game second in the NFL behind Walker in missed tackles forced per game (6.3). Seattle will need to rally to the ball to contain him.
Wandale Robinson is a guy they target heavily and almost completely on underneath throws where he is asked to create yards after the catch. They almost use him as a running alternative.
Nabers is the star of the show. He is a good enough player to make Jones look decent at times. They will use him all over the field if he can play.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThis will be a challenging environment for the Giants to play. They are already a malfunctioning offense with a quarterback they do not trust. Seattle may be banged up and hold some guys out.
Still, the Seahawks corner room should be set for a bounce back game and have reason to hope they can break their three game streak of no takeaways.
Jones, coming off a serious injury last season, has not been the threat as a runner he was prior to the injury. Seattle should be able to get home with him holding the ball an average of 2.85 seconds before he throws.
Derick Hall now has 4.0 sacks and is becoming a force on the outside.
Special Teams
A quiet story of the season is the poor performance of Michael Dickson and the punt unit. Usually in the top five in net yards per punt, Dickson has been struggling to pin teams back.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating7 Votes2.8Mike Macdonald was furious. His defense played a game so bad that records were set. They simply could not get off the field as the opposing play caller was dialing up the perfect play time after time. Questions started being asked about whether Macdonald and his defense were just feasting off inferior competition before this game. The date was September 18th, 2022. Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins had just completed a historic comeback against the Baltimore Ravens. Miami trailed 28-7 at halftime before scoring 35 points in the second half (28 in the 4th quarter) for a 42-38 win. It was Macdonald’s second game as a defensive coordinator. His defense had dominated a bad Jets offense the first week, but face-planted against their first quality offense. A game like that can sink a young coach. It did not sink Macdonald.
The Dolphins faced Macdonald’s defenses in each of the next two seasons. They never scored more than 19 points. He would later talk about the lessons learned in that game and how he worked with his players to start correcting the mistakes. That defense would take a few more licks early in the season before finishing as the 8th-ranked DVOA unit in the NFL.
Signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Detroit represented a terrific early test for the Seahawks. They are true Super Bowl contenders, and were playing at home in a game they needed to win or risk falling two games behind another NFC competitor and losing the tiebreaker. The Lions had lost six straight to the Seahawks, 9 out of 10, and the last two on their home field. This game was circled on the schedule for the Lions and their fans. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson emptied his clip, holding nothing back.
The Seahawks defense was not up to the task. They were humbled. Yes, there were injuries to many of their best defenders, but this Lions offensive performance had the feeling of one that might have been destined to happen no matter who Seattle had on their side of the field. Even if the injuries were a major factor, the more productive conclusion is that the Seahawks defense was nowhere near good enough. You can be sure that was Macdonald’s perspective.
He was seething in his postgame press conference. I have seen him boiling after a bad defensive day during training camp. He has no tolerance for undisciplined and porous defense, and takes little solace in good offense when his defense does not meet his bar.
That intensity is what helped him grind through the early bumps with the Ravens and ultimately erect the best defense in football. It will serve him well hear as well.
To their credit, Seahawks players have responded when Macdonald has left a practice unhappy. Some of their best days during camp came after the offense had their way the day before.
A guy like Devon Witherspoon exit this game as a problem instead of the solution for the first time in his career. He and every other Seahawks defender had the plane flight back to reflect on what went wrong before needing to flush it and move on to their next opponent. Witherspoon seems like a guy who will use this as fuel to improve his play. His team needs him to be more impactful.
Some fans have had a far more negative response to this game than feel warranted. Here are some of the key questions Seattle faced coming into this one:
- Can the Seahawks slow down the Lions run game without two of their three best defensive tackles and two best edge run defenders?
- Can the Seahawks get pressure on Jared Goff without their best pass rushers?
- Can Macdonald confuse Goff and create turnovers?
- Can the offensive line keep Aidan Hutchinson from dominating?
- Can the Seahawks get any amount of run game themselves against a dominant Lions run defense?
- Is Kenneth Walker III really a difference maker in this offense or was week one an illusion?
- Can Ryan Grubb, Geno Smith, and this offense go toe-to-toe with one of the best offenses in football while facing a top defense?
They exit with a mixed scorecard:
X Can the Seahawks slow down the Lions run game without two of their three best defensive tackles and two best edge run defenders?
X Can the Seahawks get pressure on Jared Goff without their best pass rushers?
X Can Macdonald confuse Goff and create turnovers?
Can the offensive line keep Aidan Hutchinson from dominating?
Can the Seahawks get any amount of run game themselves against a dominant Lions run defense?
Is Kenneth Walker III really a difference maker in this offense or was week one an illusion?
Can Ryan Grubb, Geno Smith, and this offense go toe-to-toe with one of the best offenses in football while facing a top defense?
They also exit with answers to questions they did not anticipate, like how would this team respond to getting punched in the mouth and finding themselves down 14-0 in a hostile environment.
The offense was brilliant in this game. Geno Smith played at an MVP level for the second time in four games. Het set career highs in passing yards, completions and attempts. He repeatedly led the team back from the brink, and if not for some questionable penalties (and non-penalties), he very well might have tied this one.
The game turned early when the Seahawks were driving and Metcalf fumbled while fighting for extra yards. This has been an issue for Metcalf throughout his career. You love to see the effort. He needs to be mindful of how he is protecting the ball in those moments, and avoid letting the ball stretch away from his body.
That turnover left the Seahawks playing catch-up all night and might have been the difference in a game where both offenses were nearly flawless.
Support our sponsor and signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Smith and the offense responded with a gutsy 70-yard touchdown drive. The Lions punched right back to take a 21-7 lead that would be the score at halftime. Then the third quarter happened.
Seattle got the ball to start the half and quickly found themselves in a 4th and 1 at their own 34-yard line. Lots of coaches would punt in that situation. They would explain that there was plenty of time left and that they were going to count on their defense to get the ball back. Not Macdonald.
The Seahawks went for it without hesitation, and converted. They would finish the drive with A.J. Barner’s first NFL touchdown, and it seemed like “Game on.” The Lions scored immediately after a series of broken tackles by David Montgomery on a 40-yard pass play.
Again, on the edge of a blowout, Seattle punched back. Walker broke away for 28 yards on the first play of the next drive and Smith would help the team convert a 3rd and 8 and recover from a 6-yard loss by Walker to throw a dart to Tyler Lockett for 29 yards. Walker finished off the drive with a 1-yard touchdown.
Detroit needed only one play to put Seattle back into the corner with a 70-yard busted coverage touchdown.
Every possession in the 3rd quarter resulted in a touchdown. The only one that did not was a Seahawks possession that bridged into the 4th quarter and also resulted in a touchdown.
Seattle impressed not only with responding to scoreboard adversity, but by overcoming long yardage situations multiple times. They had a brilliant play on a 3rd and 16 that saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba streak across the field behind blockers before throwing the ball backwards at least 10 yards to the sideline where Zach Charbonnet was waiting to race past the first down marker. They had the big completion to Lockett mentioned earlier, an 18-yard tunnel screen to Laviska Shenault Jr. on a 2nd and 14, a 13-yard completion to Walker on 2nd and 12.
In all, they had 9 plays where they were behind the sticks (11+ yards to go), and converted a remarkable 44% of them for first downs. That is unheard of. It certainly was not something that happened under Shane Waldron, who managed just a 10.2% conversion rate on those plays over the past two seasons (24th in the NFL).
We also saw Metcalf add more proof that he is now someone who can use his strength to make contested catches and bully opponents on the way to his third straight 100-yard receiving game for the first time in his career. Walker performed a backflip while being tackled to gain a first down. He was electric. Smith-Njigba was great all night making tough catches and getting yards after the catch. Noah Fant and Barner had nice moments.
Maybe most importantly, the offensive line did enough to make it all possible. This was not game film you will want to send to Canton, but there were very few moments of unavoidable pressure or breakdowns. There were also fewer penalties.
Christian Haynes rotated with Anthony Bradford and both players appeared to play decently. Stone Forsythe had a very tough test against the NFL sack leader and held him without a sack for the first time this season. Yes, he had help, but so did other guys who have faced Hutchinson this year.
Seattle had huge chunk plays on the ground and in the air. This is what is possible with just mediocre levels of offensive line performance. Smith is playing so well that all but the most instant breakdowns can be overcome.
We now enter the window where we find out if Abe Lucas will start practicing with the team. Jerrick Reed and Cameron Young are also available to come off the PUP list. Reed seems ready to go and could be a boost on special teams and in the safety room where Coby Bryant appeared to struggle in this one.
The Lions deserve every bit of shine thrown their way for the way their offense played. That should not take anything away from what Smith and Grubb and crew did on the same field. I guarantee you there will be a ton of “second look” studies of just how well Seattle played on offense.
The lazy take will be that the Seahawks defense was a mirage after facing bad competition and wilting against their first real offense. I would argue the Seahawks left this game with a higher ceiling, not a lower one.
This team was always going to be limited by how functional their offense could be due to a suspect offensive line. The way the offense performed against a Super Bowl contender with all the adversity they faced puts them in a new tier. Detroit is thrilled with their win, but you can bet they want no part of Seattle at full strength come playoff time.
The Lions have been building for years. They have an identity. This season is a culmination of many years of work. Seattle is in the early stages of finding out who they are. Their defense was rocked back on their heels. It would be a shock if Macdonald lets them fall. Getting his starting defensive line back would help.
Seattle faces a pivotal stretch of two more games in the next 10 days, with one of them being a Thursday night game against the 49ers. There is no time to stew about how things went against Detroit. You can tell a lot about a fighter by how they respond to tasting their own bloodied lip. The Seahawks offense fought back time and again. Look for the defense to regain their footing and help everyone see what this team looks like when they fight with both hands.
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Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions have not been secretive about the hopes they had on drafting Devon Witherspoon in the first round last year. They had the 6th pick, directly after the Seahawks, and were ready to pounce on the do-everything cornerback to turbo boost their secondary. In this version of the multiverse, the Seahawks called Witherspoon’s name and the Lions were left with players they did not deem worth of the 6th overall pick so they traded back. The deal with the Arizona Cardinals netted a 1st and 2nd round pick that the Lions used on game-breaking running back Jahmyr Gibbs and all-rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Neither satisfied the need in the secondary. That would come when they used their 2nd round pick to take a player some had projected as a first round pick, Brian Branch out of Alabama.
Branch was used in a similar fashion to Witherspoon. He was a slot corner who was physical enough to support against the run and blitz on occasion. He was named to the All-Rookie team, and finished 5th in defensive rookie of the year voting. I asked D.K. Metcalf about Branch earlier this week.
“He’s probably their best defensive back,” Metcalf said. “[Branch] is interchangeable from nickel to safety and he can do it all. He can run, he can hit, he can cover. So it’s going to be a good challenge for us this week.”
There were some analysts who even held Branch in higher regard than Witherspoon. I asked Metcalf in he saw similarities between the two players.
“No. They are two different people in my opinion,” Metcalf said. “(Devon) Witherspoon, I get to go against him every day. He’s one of probably the best defensive backs that I’ve ever seen in person day in and day out.”
Metcalf elaborated on what he thinks sets Witherspoon apart.
“Just hearing him talk,” Metcalf said. “Even when we were at training camp, he was calling out my routes or somebody else’s routes just from stuff he’s seen and I even asked him, ‘Why did you say that?’ He was like, ‘I saw by your alignment that you weren’t going out so you only had to go in.’ That’s just crazy that a second-year defensive back is already thinking lightyears ahead of that.”
Independent of any comparisons with Witherspoon, Branch is undeniably central to what the Lions do on defense. He was versatile enough to switch from nickel corner to safety this season when the Lions found out they would also be without starter Ifeatu Melifonwu.
Detroit will probably be at their best in the secondary when Melifonwu returns and Branch can slide back into nickel. Branch, though, was playing very well as a safety.
He was second on the team in run stops with 11, trailing only Aidan Hutchinson who has 12. He limited opposing receivers in his area to a 55.2 passer rating and already picked off a pass.
His replacement is likely to be undrafted free agent rookie Brandon Joseph, who played at Notre Dame last year. Joseph replaced Branch when he exited the game against Arizona with the concussion.
Joseph is more of a classic safety, without the flexibility to move into slot the way Branch can. Joseph may also not be the run defender Branch has been.
The loss of Branch could have a sneaky impact on what has been stellar run defense from the Lions thus far. Marcus Davenport, their defensive end opposite Hutchinson, has been lauded for his ability to set the edge in the run game. He was lost for the season last week. Now, the team loses another key contributor in that run defense.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn loves to blitz. It will be interesting to see if being down to his third-string safety will impact his willingness to bring pressure, and if he does, whether it will be as effective.
The caveat on all this is that Branch was listed as Doubtful on the injury report with an illness. We do not know if it is related to the concussion or something else, and there remains a chance that he recovers enough to play in the game.
Should he have to sit out, the Lions injuries are now looking comparable to the Seahawks. Frank Ragnow is an All-Pro center who Jared Goff relies on for protection adjustments. He is out. Davenport is out. Derek Barnes, their starting linebacker who has been having a great season is out. The news about Boye Mafe missing the game certainly was not great for Seattle. Branch’s absence, though, could play a much bigger role in the outcome of the game.
The Seahawks just announced that they will be without Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe for this big NFC clash in Detroit. Finding out that much on the defensive line will be missing for this game sent many Seahawks fans into a panic or chalking this game up as a loss. That energy is misplaced, and possibly misguided. There is no doubt the Seahawks could drop this game. They are 3.5 point underdogs (before the injury news was released) going on the road to face an NFC title contender in prime time. Any team could lose that game. There are a few reasons why the Seahawks chances to win are roughly the same after the injury report as they were before.
Mafe only new newsIt was reported earlier this week that Murphy was going to miss some time. Williams has not practiced all week. Nwosu practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday, but not at all after. If anyone was expecting them to play before the report ruled them out today, they were not paying much attention.
The only really “new” news was that Mafe was ruled out. There had been some hope that they were resting him and were going to play him anyway. That turned out to not be the case, so the focus really becomes how much Mafe would have changed the probability of a win.
Straight edge rush not crucial in this gameMafe is a terrific player, who is looking ready to become a star in this league. Losing him is absolutely a blow for Seattle. Nobody would argue the team is better off without him on the field. The conversation is more about just how critical he was to the Seahawks chances to win this particular game.
The Lions feature one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL. Penei Sewell may be the best right tackle in the game. Taylor Decker is a terrific pass protector. Even the best edge rushers are rarely disruptive against them.
Building a defensive game plan that was reliant on your edge rushers beating those two players with any regularity would be foolish. Mike Macdonald is not foolish.
Thirteen different players have at least one pressure for the Seahawks this season. They are #1 in the NFL this season in pressure rate while being 25th in blitz rate, per Pro-Football-Reference. They almost always send four players, but it is rarely the same four players.
Mafe has dropped into coverage more than any other edge player for the Seahawks (18 snaps). Devon Witherspoon, Jerome Baker (who may play), Tyrel Dodson and Rayshawn Jenkins are all threats to be sent from their positions.
If you look at the four interceptions Jared Goff has thrown already this season, a number of them are due to his being fooled by zone pressures that have defensive linemen or others dropping into coverage zones he was not anticipating. Nobody schemes those types of plays up better than Macdonald.
This game was always going to be about whether Macdonald could fool Goff into costly mistakes. It was never going to be about whether Mafe could simply beat Sewell or Decker off the edge. Those creative pressure patterns all remain on the menu even if Derick Hall or Tyus Bowser or even Mike Morris are getting more edge snaps.
Seattle secondary is elite and will finally get a chance to make playsGoff has not faced a secondary anywhere close to the caliber of this Seahawks crew so far this season, and has already been careless with the football. Riq Woolen and Tre Brown both have pick sixes against Goff in Detroit over the past two seasons.
Witherspoon is getting his first shot to play in Ford Field as a veteran after having some understandable first game growing pains the last time they played.
Julian Love and Rashawn Jenkins ranks #1 and #8 among all safeties in football in PFF grades, and have been excellent in all aspects of the the game.
Maybe Goff does have more time in this one. He still has to complete a pass to his receivers. Woolen and Witherspoon are dying to be tested more than they have been to this point.
Woolen has only been targeted 11 times in three games, and all have been short passes. Opposing receivers are averaging 7.8 yards per reception. Witherspoon has been targeted 15 times and is allowing 7.1 yards per reception.
Goff testing those guys very well could be a good thing for Seattle.
Seahawks edge players are still better than other Lions opponentsSeattle will likely elevate Bowser for a second straight week, and he has great familiarity with Macdonald’s system. He is a vet, and provides a decent pass rush himself. He exited his first Seahawks game with a nice 72.0 grade from PFF.
Jones and Hall are both quality edge players, and Trevis Gipson has done a decent job when he has had chances to get on the field. Morris has largely been asked to play inside, but he can play all the way out to the edge and could allow Seattle to go heavy upfront to really try and limit the run game for Detroit.
Compare that group of five players to edge players the Lions have faced so far this season:
Arizona Cardinals
- Zaven Collins
- L.J. Collier
- Dennis Gardeck
- Xavier Thomas
Tampa Bay Bucs
- Yaya Diaby
- Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
- Anthony Nelson
- Chris Braswell
Los Angeles Rams
- Jared Verse
- Byron Young
- Michael Hoecht
The Rams group isn’t awful. Maybe you like Verse. Hall has one less pressure than Verse and a higher pass rush grade (70.6 vs 63.2). Also consider that was the game where the Lions had the most points (26). The Cardinals edge rush group is maybe the worst in football, and they shut out the Lions in the second half.
Each one of these teams are worse on defense overall than the Seahawks and still gave the Detroit offense problems. The Lions have scored more than 20 points just once.
The fundamentals of this game have not changedThis game was always going to come down to three primary things:
- Can the Seahawks keep the Lions run game from being dominant?
- Can the Lions keep the Seahawks pass game from being dominant?
- Can Macdonald frustrate and fool Goff into costly errors?
Mafe was not central to any of those questions. He certainly would have helped, but the difference in Seattle’s ability to get positive answers with Hall, Jones and Bowser getting more snaps may be more negligible than most fans realize.
It would not even surprise me to see Macdonald employ more bear fronts to help limit the run game. Look for an extra nose tackle to be elevated on Monday. Johnathan Hankins is more crucial in this game than Mafe. That will not often be true, but it is for this matchup. Jarran Reed is as well.
The odds that someone like Witherspoon would exit this game with more sacks than Mafe was always high. It is now nearly certain. This game may hinge on Witherspoon’s ability to limit Amon-Ra St. Brown as a receiver while also disrupting Goff as a pass rusher and supporting against the run. He has a chance to have a very special game, which would not be the first time for him to do so on Monday Night Football.
Everyone will tell you this game represents the first real test for the Seahawks. They are correct. Seattle has had the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. Not only that, but a closer look tells you this high-flying defense has faced the easiest offensive opponents (32nd per DVOA), and the offense has faced a mild slate as well (27th-toughest).
What nobody will tell you is the Lions offense has not been tested yet either. The defenses they have faced combine to be the 26th-toughest. Tampa Bay (15th), Arizona (23rd), and the Rams (31st) are not exactly an intimidating group.
One difference between the Seahawks defense and the Lions offense is that Seattle has actually dominated their easy opponents. No team in football has allowed fewer yards per drive (19.7). No other team has allowed fewer yards per play, or fewer passing yards. The most yards any individual receiver has had in a game against this secondary is 45 yards. The official tally is they have surrendered 43 points (14.3 points per game), but four of those came on safeties, and nine came on field goals following turnovers deep in their territory. The true number is closer to 30 points (10.0 points per game).
The Lions offense has scored over 20 points just once. Their franchise quarterback has thrown four interceptions and has a passer rating under 80 (79.2). They do not rank in the Top 10 in points, yards, or yards per play despite the easy slate.
Taking this Detroit offense lightly would be foolish. Underestimating the Seahawks defense would be welcome.
There is no shortage of fascinating subplots to this game. Detroit is one of the favorites to reach, and possibly win, the Super Bowl. Seattle is the team that comes to town undefeated. Seattle and Detroit have played in each of the last three seasons. Seattle is 3-0 in those games, averaging 45.3 points.
Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions, was interviewed for the Seahawks head coaching role prior to Mike Macdonald. John Schneider left Detroit without making an offer and then Johnson pulled his name from consideration for any head coaching gig. Macdonald was named the new head coach a week later.
Geno Smith and Jared Goff have put up huge numbers in this matchup the past two years. Both QBs have thrown for 300+ yards in each game. But Goff will be facing a different Seahawks defense. It is coached by the man who humiliated him and Johnson last year in Baltimore, holding the Lions to a season-low 6 points, and Goff to a paltry 14.8 quarterback rating.
Injuries are going to play a big factor. Seattle is likely to be missing their two best interior defensive linemen in Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy after they were hurt against Miami. Detroit just found out their All-Pro center tore a pectoral muscle and almost certainly will miss this game with a bye the following week. The man expected to replace him, guard Graham Glasgow, hurt his arm this weekend and played through considerable pain.
The Lions also lost multiple starters on defense when edge rusher Marcus Davenport and linebacker Derek Barnes went down.
The Seahawks are hoping to welcome back Kenneth Walker III, Uchenna Nwosu, and possibly Jerome Baker.
What will likely decide this game is pretty simple. The Lions are an excellent running offense, with a great offensive line and two running backs who can attack you with strength or speed. Seattle has had a questionable run defense.
The Seahawks passing offense has thrived against man coverage teams like the Lions (4th-highest man coverage usage in the league), and the Lions have struggled to defend WR2 and WR3 so far this season.
The team most able to diminish the strength of the opposing offense will likely win. That is where coaching comes in. It is hard not to like Macdonald and Grubb over Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Look for the Seahawks to leave Detroit with a win and heightened expectations.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOANew this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
The DVOA storyline slants toward Seattle. Detroit ranks lower on defense, offense, and overall. Running the ball is one advantage for the Lions, but not by as much as you might expect given the Seahawks problems against the Patriots in week two. The other is on special teams, which will be covered in that section below.
One ranking that will truly be tested in the Seahawks ability to defend the running back as a receiver out of the backfield. Jahmyr Gibbs caught 52 passes last season, and already has 11 this year. Gibbs caught 9 passes against Macdonald’s Ravens last year for 58 yards. He also carried it 11 times for 68 yards, including a 21 yard touchdown. Seattle has improved their missed tackles each week, and that will be tested in this one.
Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense
Lions key advantages on defenseGetting this far into a preview of a game involving the Lions without mentioning Aidan Hutchinson is almost disqualifying. Hutchinson is an early candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He has 6.5 sacks and leads the NFL in pressures. Detroit will have the benefit of lining him up against a backup Seahawks tackle for the second straight year. Last year, it was Jake Curhan. This year, it will be third string tackle Stone Forsythe.
Hutchinson was expected to be dominant in that game a year ago after Seattle lost both starting tackles in week one. He wound up being a non-factor. He had no sacks, no hits, and just two tackles. Given the Seahawks problems in pass protection, that seems very unlikely to occur again.
DJ Reader was a big free agent addition in the middle of the Lions line. He has made it hard to run against whichever team he has been on over the years. He will make it hard to create space in the run game.
Brian Branch is in the concussion protocol. Early signs are that he should be available to play, and he is a difference maker either at safety or at nickel corner.
Alim McNeill is day-to-day after an injury against the Cardinals. He is a disruptive presence on the defensive interior should he suit up, and would give the Seahawks guards trouble.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseSeattle has had problems in pass protection in each game this season. Hutchinson is probably the best individual pass rusher they have faced, with Keion White of the Patriots in the conversation. That said, the Broncos and the Dolphins have a better pass rush than Detroit.
The Lions have been largely one dimensional in rushing the passer. Only one other player has even a single sack. Only two players have even a half-sack. Coming up with a blocking scheme to provide extra help for one pass rusher is much more straightforward than a multi-faceted attack.
Pharaoh Brown gives the team a new weapon to deploy in pass protection after he shook the dust off against the Dolphins with a few de-cleating blocks.
Glenn loves to play man defense and blitz. The Lions blitz at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL (31.0%). Smith is the 5th-highest graded QB when blitzed this season and has a 108.2 passer rating in those situations. The only other team Seattle has played who plays a similar amount of man coverage was the Patriots. Smith had one of the most efficient and impressive games of his career in that one.
New England has a better secondary than Detroit, especially at the cornerback spot. The Patriots have Jonathan Jones (72.4 coverage grade), Marcus Jones (71.2), and Christian Gonzalez (53.2). Gonzalez is a good player despite the grade. The Lions have Amik Robertson (63.7), Carlton Davis III (55.8), and rookie Terrion Arnold (45.1).
Arnold ranks 102 out of 106 qualifying corners and has already been flagged 5 times. Put Tyler Lockett against the youngster and he might have twice that many flags before this game is over.
The Lions secondary is better than those grade indicate, but it is far from a shutdown group. Detroit faced an injured an inexperienced Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season. Metcalf shook off a slow week one to have two field-tilting performances. There would be no better place for his Megatron impersonation than in Detroit.
Noah Fant came alive against the Dolphins and was a big part of the win last year in Detroit.
While the Seahawks can rightly claim the Lions are largely the same defense and scheme they played well against last year, the Lions cannot say that about the Seahawks offense. Grubb and crew are more explosive in spite of the porous pass protection.
Walker making a return would be a huge lift and cause even more stress for Glenn’s defense.
Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Lions key advantages on offenseThis has been the best offensive line in football for the last two years. Losing Ragnow, who was the best center in football last year, would be a big loss. They still boast two great tackles and very solid guard play. Losing Murphy and Williams makes the Seahawks defensive line far less dynamic.
Guys like Myles Adams and Mike Morris would probably get more snaps. Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins would have to do their best work in run defense to prevent Detroit from shoving the ball down their throats.
David Montgomery is a terrific battering ram of a back, and gets the bulk of the carries. Gibbs is the speedy change-of-pace who threatens the edges. Seattle has not had to defend both styles in the same game the way they will in this one.
Dan Campbell is hyper aggressive. He will make Seattle defend Detroit for four downs more than almost any coach in football. The Seahawks are the 3rd-best defense against 4th downs in the NFL so far.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a fantastic receiver who shares a lot of qualities with former Seahawk Doug Baldwin. He is an excellent route runner with great hands who is super tough. Jameson Williams is the speedster who will challenge the secondary deep.
Sam LaPorta has been their bell cow at tight end after a huge rookie season, but he hurt his ankle last week and has not had a great year so far. He might be the biggest challenge for this defense after seeing what Hunter Henry did in week two.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle has to feel good about the way the corners and safeties are playing so far. There is not a matchup in the league they should fear. Tre Brown had a sack and a pick six against Detroit last year. Devon Witherspoon was victimized on a trick play in his first NFL game, and has to be looking for payback. Riq Woolen hurt his shoulder in the game. Julian Love played some of his worst football against Detroit.
This group with Rayshawn Jenkins and either K’Von Wallace or Coby Bryant feels completely different than the one that had Quandre Diggs.
Tyrel Dodson and any of the other linebackers feels completely different than the one that had Bobby Wagner.
Boye Mafe was not starting in that game. Darrell Taylor was still the starting edge. Derick Hall was a shadow of what he has now become.
The assumption is that both Williams and Murphy do not play. Neither player is replaceable.
Macdonald will need to do his best work to scheme around their absences.
Lions fans will tell you the offense has been much better than the numbers indicate and that they have really just bogged down in the red zone (26th-ranked performance). Seattle has the 4th-best red zone defense.
Where everyone will give the benefit of the doubt to the Lions offense and say the Seahawks defense has not faced an offense this good, it very much feels like the Lions will be the ones who have to adjust to playing a defense this talented and well coached.
Special Teams
The Lions have outplayed the Seahawks in punting and punt coverage. The return games are similar, but Dee Williams has clearly gained some confidence with big returns in each of the last two games.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Buffalo takes over the top spot after a spanking of the Jaguars on Monday Night Football. The Saints dropped precipitously after two blowout wins to start the season. They fall to third place overall.
Minnesota, perhaps the most dominant team on both sides of the ball in the NFC, climbs to the second spot.
Seattle has the worst strength of schedule in the NFL, but that was not enough to keep them from climbing a couple of spots to 7th overall after their easy win over the Dolphins. Their team strength stayed relatively flat, which implies other teams fell more than they improved.
Some of those fallers included: Tampa (-39.7), Arizona (-35.8), and Houston (-53.5).
The 49ers managed to move up despite the loss as their game against the 31st-ranked Rams defied a lot of statistical probabilities. Detroit, the Seahawks next opponent, climbed to 12th after beating the Cardinals.
Seattle is in a good spot for most of the measures, including the magic +10 points per game differential. Scoring 10 or more points per game than your opponent has generally been an indicator of a Super Bowl contender. Seattle is currently scoring 24.3 and allowing 14.3. They now will be tested to see if that can be sustained as the schedule toughens.
It’s after week three! That is when these rankings have historically been pretty good at predicting playoff teams. You can usually bank on at least 7 of the Top 10 teams making it to the dance.
Rankings VisualizationThis view shows tiers of strength that develop over the course of the season.
RANKINGS EXPLAINEDPower rankings are always debatable. I don’t buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula many years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. The formula to calculate “Team Strength” was as follows:
(Rush EPA (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) – (Rush EPA (defense) + Opponent Passer Rating (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed) x SOS
There are weightings applied to the factors that put a heavier emphasis on passing than running.
The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success (roughly 70% of the teams ranked in the Top 10 by week 3 make the playoffs), but I am always looking for ways to improve it.
This episode is brought to you by Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/)
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Postgame Show: Seahawks are 3-0! 49ers Blew It!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating12 Votes4One of the most obnoxious reactions to a positive statement about the Seahawks is, “Yeah, but…” The Seahawks are 3-0! Yeah, but who did they play? The Seahawks are one of only two undefeated teams in the NFC! Yeah, but look at the quarterbacks they’ve faced. The Seahawks defense is doing things they have not done in a decade. Yeah, but they did good things before and then they fell apart. There are generally two primary reasons the Yeah Buts react the way they do. Either they are guarding their hearts from feeling hope that can lead to disappointment, or they have prior predictions about the team being bad and do not want to admit they were wrong. It is true that little can be proven in three games against the teams the Seahawks have faced. It is true that their first real shot at earning respect will come in Detroit on Monday Night Football. Choosing to wait for proof that your team is good is a tortured way to approach an NFL season. Every single week is a test. Seattle is one of a select few who have passed every test so far. Get off your Yeah Butts and enjoy it.
Miami came to Seattle missing their starter at quarterback. They left without their backup after Skylar Thompson was knocked out of the game. This Dolphins offense had been struggling even with their starter so far this season, and it was wholly ineffective against this physical and fast Seahawks defense. There are reasons to diminish the performance by Seattle. Here are some reasons to enjoy it.
Signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!This is a selection of games the Seahawks played against current or former backups:
- 2023
- Week 3 vs CAR: Andy Dalton, 361 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (27 points)
- Week 10 vs WAS: Sam Howell, 312 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT (26 points)
- Week 17 vs PIT: Mason Rudolph, 274 yards, 112.2 rating (30 points)
- 2022
- Week 17 vs DET: Tim Boyle, 262 yards, 2 TD, (29 points)
- Week 16 vs CHI: Nick Foles, 250 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (24 points)
- Week 14 at HOU: Davis Mills, 331 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (13 points)
- Week 11 vs ARZ: Colt McCoy, 328 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (23 points)
- 2021
- Week 17 at SF: C.J. Beathard, 273 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (23 points)
- Week 15 at WAS: Dwayne Haskins, 295 yards, 1 TD, (15 points)
- 2019
- Week 15 at CAR: Kyle Allen, 277 yards, 1 TD, (24 points)
- Week 8 at ATL: Matt Schaub, 460 yards, 1 TD (20 points)
- 2018
- Week 15 at SF: Nick Mullens, 275 yards, 1 TD (26 points)
- Week 13 vs SF: Nick Mullens, 414 yards, 2 TD (16 points)
- Week 1 at DEN: Case Keenum, 329 yards, 3 TD (27 points)
- 2017
- Week 14 at JAX: Blake Bortles, 268 yards, 2 TD (30 points)
- Week 10 at ARZ: Drew Stanton, 273 yards, 1 TD (16 points)
That is but a small sample of what has been a painful history of making backup quarterbacks look like superstars, including the guy who replaced Thompson for Miami.
Outside of a solid first half from Jacoby Brissett during a 10AM road game, the Seahawks defense is suffocating these paltry passers. There is no shame in making a backup look like a backup.
A week after holding the Patriots wide receivers to less than 20 yards receiving, the Seahawks secondary held Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to 68 yards on 7 receptions for less than 10 yards per catch.
There was at least some reason to be concerned this game was going to be a trap. The Dolphins were being asked all week about team morale and whether their season was over due to the quarterback situation. Head Coach Mike McDaniel had a long week to prep for this game after playing the previous Thursday. He also had brought in a disciple of Mike Macdonald’s to coach the Dolphins defense this season, allowing him to hone his strategy for attacking it. Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon and Tre Brown had never faced Hill or Waddle and their race car speed.
It was not hard to imagine a Seahawks team overlooking a backup quarterback and underestimating the big play speed on the other side. One or two early mistakes could have made this a loss or a far more uncomfortable win.
Remarkably, mistakes did happen, but the defense was not the culprit and instead were the trolls beneath the bridge allowing nobody to pass.
Consider this, the Seahawks defense has faced multiple interceptions on their side of the field, multiple safeties, and a muffed punt. On those six opponent possessions, they have yielded a total of four first downs, and 9 points.
Miami did not get their first 3rd down conversion until roughly the 13 minute mark in the 4th quarter. They finished the game 1-12 on 3rd downs and 0-3 on 4th downs.
No defense in the history of the NFL has held an opponent to 1 conversion or fewer in 15 or greater 3rd and 4th down attempts. Until now.
The only thing missing was turnovers. They pressured the passer from inside and out. They covered well. This was easily their best tackling game of the season.
Doing all that without Uchenna Nwosu, Jerome Baker and losing Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams early, deserves respect no matter the opponent.
It is fine to want to see them against a great offense (if those even exist anymore). My eyes tell me the Seahawks have the best secondary in the NFL and one of the best pass rushes. They tell me that the edge rushers that people were concerned about might actually be a strength. They tell me that the linebackers are going to be just fine. Most importantly, they tell me Macdonald is excellent at his job.
My only hesitation on defense remains in the run game. It still feels vulnerable up the middle. Detroit will be a team that will presents challenges. That feels more fun than scary at this point.
Offensively, the Seahawks came out of the gates with some of the explosion they showed off against the Patriots. D.K. Metcalf made a brilliant catch along the sideline to setup the first of Zach Charbonnet’s touchdowns and followed it up with a 71-yard score right before the first quarter ended.
It got really ugly after that. The offensive line gave up pressure and penalties across the board. Even Charles Cross was victimized for a sack. Connor Williams had penalties and allowed pressures. And, of course, the guards were problematic as has been the case each week.
Anthony Bradford now has six penalties on the season after getting two more in this one. Geno Smith was only sacked three times, but it felt like he was under pressure on nearly every snap. The decision to call two longer developing pass plays when backed up in their own end zone was questionable from Ryan Grubb. The decision to hold the ball and not simply throw it away was questionable from Smith. Both guys need to be better.
Still, Smith ends the game completing 26/34 passes and 289 yards. His command was key even during the lull. There were a number of plays where he looked off defenders to create throwing lanes to Noah Fant.
Support our sponsor and signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Fant had his best game of the season with a team-leading 6 receptions for 60 yards. He showed off some nice run after catch as well. Putting that on film will help keep defenses honest. They are undoubtedly looking to double Metcalf after the game-breaking plays he has made the last two weeks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a solid, if understated, game with just 3 catches but for 39 yards as he flashed yards after catch talent as well.
There are only so many defenders. Smith spoke about it in his postgame press conference. Someone is going to be open on nearly every play. Right now, his line is not protecting him well enough to let him pick apart opponents. He is still completing 75% of his passes through three weeks.
Scott Huff and Grubb know this has to improve if they want to truly contend in the NFC. There is some hope that Abe Lucas will be part of the solution when he returns. Christian Haynes did not see the field in this game, but perhaps he will make progress and shore up one of the guard spots.
As I wrote about this weekend, bad offensive line play is an epidemic across the NFL. Seattle is not unique in what they are experiencing. Nothing is gained from complaining about the issue. In some ways, the Seahawks are fortunate it is one of the few problems to solve on this team.
Think about all the players and position groups that are performing a the high end of expectations. Corners, safeties, linebackers, edge players, and receivers are all playing terrific football.
Kenneth Walker III was electric in the first game and, unlike the 49ers, Seattle has managed to win both their games without their lead back.
Derick Hall was a terror in this game. He finished with two sacks and four quarterback hits. There should be a new category of QB hits just for Hall that indicates whether the opponent’s soul leaves their body on contact.
He brings bad intentions.
Boye Mafe has started another sack streak, with one in each game this year. Teams are going to need to start helping on his side, which only makes Hall that much more dangerous. Nwosu is due back this week and will add to the rotation.
Dre’Mont Jones gets a lot of flak from Seahawks fans because of his contract. This felt like his best game in Seattle. He had a strip sack and multiple QB hits while also contributing in stopping the run.
Seattle may have one of the most productive rotations of edge rushers in the NFL. That is a massive development.
The injuries to Williams and Murphy are a concern. Both players are dynamic elements on the interior. Should they need to miss time, we will likely see Jones play more on the inside and possibly some snaps for Myles Adams.
Walker’s return means a lot to this offense. They are simply less dangerous without him. Charbonnet did better in this game. He finally started to run downhill and break some tackles. His line did not help early, but he has not shown enough elusiveness or power to create his own yards. Feature backs need to have that ability. That final touchdown run was a good example of the type of play he should be capable of making.
The rest of the NFC West collapsed around the Seahawks on Sunday. That left Seattle two games up after just three weeks. It means little with 14 games to go. That should not keep fans from enjoying every minute of it. A Bucs team that entered the week undefeated got blown at home by the same Bo Nix-led Broncos team that the Seahawks beat in week one. Ask their fans if they would prefer to be talking about a bad offensive line performance following a 24-3 win.
Seattle has yet to face a great team. That narrative ends next week in Detroit. Choose whether you want to enter that game apologizing for being the only undefeated squad that walks onto Ford Field or if you want to savor the view and cheer for them to reach the next peak.
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There are few jobs more glamorous than being an NFL player. It is a job few can even apply for, let alone land, and occupy long enough to tell anyone. The glamour, though, is not evenly distributed across all the players or positions in the league. Somewhere toward the bottom of the glamour spectrum is where you will find the big boys on the offensive line. Not only does the job lack flash, but the men who occupy it rarely seek the spotlight. This understated existence may be contributing to a disturbing trend playing out in the shadows of the NFL. Those lovable lugs tasked with clearing paths for your favorite running back or protecting your young quarterback are struggling to do either job well. While receivers, cornerbacks, and defensive linemen are faster, stronger, and better than at any time in NFL history, offensive linemen may be one of the few position groups in decay.
There was a time when offensive linemen took center stage in the NFL. The “Hogs” of the Washington Commanders franchise in the 1980s and 1990s were the foundation on which they built a 3-time Super Bowl winner. Russ Grimm, Jeff Bostic, Joe Jacoby, and Mark May played together for nearly a decade. Grimm would ultimately make the Hall of Fame. They were outliers in notoriety, but others matched or exceeded their level of play and continuity at the time.
Art Shell, Gene Upshaw, and Jim Otto highlighted a star-studded Oakland Raiders line in the 1970s. San Francisco rode the backs of Jesse Sapolu, Guy McIntyre, Randy Cross, Bubba Paris, Keith Fahnhorst and more to a series of championships in the 1980s and into the 1990s. Dallas saw Nate Newton, Mark Stepnoski, Kevin Gogan, Erik Williams, and Larry Allen make multiple Super Bowl titles possible in the 1990s. As recently as 2005, the Seattle Seahawks made their first Super Bowl due primarily to having two Hall of Fame linemen in Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson form the left side of their line.
There have been other great offensive lines, and great offensive linemen along the way, but fewer champions can point to that position group as the reason why they got there. A series of changes to how the game is played and practiced have made it harder to find quality offensive linemen, let alone string enough together to form a great line.
The disappearing upper middle classPart of what made it possible to assemble a quality offensive line was the bountiful supply that could be found across the league. Measuring the play of offensive linemen is challenging due to lack of easily attributable individual statistics, but there are some ways to get a hint of the trend.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) is often controversial in their grading system. Sam Monson, formerly of PFF, believes their offensive line grading is among their best.
“[The] offensive line stuff is extremely strong because [PFF] is able to weed out all the things that can influence it,” Monson said. “Those pass rush reps are one of the most repeatable, static, part of the game that is a little like baseball where the analytics work so well because it’s a single repeatable thing that happens over and over and over again.”
PFF grades have not been around forever. They do go back roughly 20 years, which is far enough to provide some insight into historical trends. One of the benefits of PFF data and grades is they are given to every single player who plays the position. Grades are given on a scale of 0-110, and there are tiers that have some relative significance.
Some interesting trends appear when you look at the grades of offensive linemen over the last 20 years.
There is a clear thinning of the upper middle class of offensive linemen. The players graded from 70-89 are the ones who are playing above average (70+) or even Pro Bowl level (80+). That group made up almost half of the offensive linemen in the league less than 20 years ago. It has shrunk to 20% as of last season.
The group of “average” linemen has stayed relatively stable, making up roughly a third of the league. What has exploded is the number of below average to very poor players.
The most plentiful grouping of players in 2006 was 64 linemen who graded between 62-69, which is solidly above average. By 2014, the biggest group was 63 linemen graded between 58-64, starting to dip down to roughly average. Last year, the largest group was 66 players who graded between 55-61, mostly below average.
The cliff is also far more severe when moving to the right. Whereas in 2006 and 2014 there was a shelf of good linemen to the right, that dwindles rapidly in 2023. In fact, the more plentiful numbers go in the opposite direction with an increasing supply of well below average players.
PFF grades are only one data point, and they are imperfect. Former NFL offensive lineman and top ten pick, Ray Roberts has some healthy skepticism.
“With all these grading mechanisms comes whoever creates the grade or the data point can be subjective,” Roberts said. “Charles Cross may not be giving up a lot of pressures, but there’s a lot of times when he’s right in Geno [Smith’s] lap but he still ain’t touching the quarterback. Some people might see that as a pressure grade. For me, that’s a ‘got got’ grade.”
There are some other ways to assess if line play is in decline.
Pressure rates climb & QBs are getting hit far moreRoberts points out that the definition of a pressure can be subjective. There is some benefit in having the same criteria used to define a pressure over time, which PFF provides.
The average amount of pressures per drop-back has risen steadily over the same time period. The league that is relying more and more and pass plays are also seeing their lines surrender more pressure per pass.
Pressures are still somewhat subjective. Quarterback hits are more tangible.
Quarterbacks are being hit more, both in absolute terms (978 QB hits in 2023 vs 637 in 2006) and in relative terms.
It is worth noting that pressures, hits, and sacks are not purely attributable to offensive line play. Quarterbacks have a huge amount of influence based on how they adjust protections before a snap, how well they read coverages, how quickly they throw the pass, and how well they maneuver within the pocket versus scrambling outside of it. Play callers also factor in, as do tight ends and running backs who are involved in pass protection.
One other possible measure of elite offensive line play is the Hall of Fame.
The Hall of Fame is, by definition, subjective. Voters get to decide who goes in each year. There will always be fewer players from the most recent generation inducted as it takes an average of 10 years after a player ends their career to get the call.
Still, there has been more than enough time for players who started their careers in this century to get inducted. Yet, just two have been deemed worthy. Hutchinson and Joe Thomas are the only players whose career started after the year 2000 who have been called to Canton.
There are guys like Trent Williams, Jason Peters, and Tyron Smith who seem certain to get the call at some point down the road. It does seem that there are fewer greats than there have been in previous eras, and even fewer young players who appear ready to ascend into that stratosphere of play.
Evidence points to eroding line play. Experts have a number of reasons explaining why it is happening.
Developing offensive linemen has never been tougherSeahawks President of Football Operations & General Manager, John Schneider has talked about seeing a trend toward the best big man athletes moving toward the defensive side of the ball so they can rack up sacks and dollars. He also has highlighted some unique challenges for that position group.
“It’s a position where it’s a unit, it’s a group,” Schneider said. “You can see guys that are like Pro Bowl players, difference makers, and they may be the only real talented guy in the group. You have to have a specific skill set, a specific mentality, and it takes time. You have to have continuity, and it’s rare to have that contintuity.”
Roberts agrees with Schneider, and also sees a more systemic set of challenges.
“Going way back to when the NFLPA said, you know, less contact, less full padded practices,” Roberts said. “You can’t finish drills, and all of that is so vital for offensive linemen. To be able to get into a block, drive the block, and then finishing the block is so hard to learn that in a game.”
Roberts acknowledges the good intent around player health and safety while also being clear the offensive line has been uniquely impacted by rule changes at all levels of the sport.
“You think about going all the way back to high school offensive linemen,” Roberts said. “They’re not finishing drills in pads. You get to college, they’re not finishing drills. You get to the NFL, you’re still not. So you’re going to see a decline in those areas.”
Roberts continued, “I understand why the NFL went to less contact and padded practices, but man, the people who have suffered the most from that is offensive linemen.”
He also believes there are freakier athletes on the other side of the ball, which lines up with Schneider’s theory that more kids are choosing to rush the quarterback instead of protecting him. That leads to a compounding issue of better athletes on that side of the ball and less practice time to develop how to stop them.
Monson points to another factor.
“I think college style offenses have definitely made the transition harder,” Monson said. “Some college offenses barely ever have a linemen take a true NFL pass set. Projecting those guys into an NFL system can be tricky. There’s a real lack of a developmental pathway for project linemen to get better.”
Spread offenses in college have put a heavy emphasis on passing the football, which has adversely impacted the development of run blocking for college linemen. Roberts believes run blocking is a key part of how any lineman develops.
“A lot of times when they do run block [in college], they are doing it from a two-point stance,” Roberts said. “That’s typically not where you want to run block from because you’ve given up leverage already, especially with some of these shorter interior linemen who are barely six feet tall when you’re standing at six-foot-six.”
What it means and what to doThe impact to the game is far greater than one position group struggling. Having fewer competent offensive linemen means it is harder to develop quarterbacks.
Some teams, like the New England Patriots, are opting to have their top draft pick, Drake Maye, gain some experience as a backup while veteran Jacoby Brissett endures the second-highest pressure rate (44.8%) in the NFL. Other teams have thrown their top picks like Bryce Young and Caleb Williams behind suspect lines, possibly leaving them susceptible to developing bad habits that will be hard to correct. Some, like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold, have had a winding path with severe peaks and valleys.
Mayfield and Darnold have seen their careers revived, in part, due to playing behind good offensive lines. Smith has raised his play by reducing his reliance on offensive line play. He is 3rd in the NFL in time to throw so far this season (2.49 seconds), and has improved his pocket playmaking, a term coined by Robert Mays of The Athletic.
Tom Brady has been outspoken in his belief that all young quarterbacks should sit and learn first. Sam Howell, who calls Maye a best friend, was asked to start early and suffered through a league-high 65 sacks as a 23-year-old in 2023. He was traded to the Seahawks and now sits behind Smith.
“People come into the league at different stages,” Howell said. “Some guys come into the league ready. Some guys don’t. Coaches have to have a good sense of that. Another thing that matters is who’s around you. It’s easier for a young guy to play when he’s on a good football team. Live reps are the best, but you don’t want to ruin a player’s confidence, so you’ve got to be smart about it. You have to have a plan.”
Young was recently benched just a year after being the top overall pick. How much of that has to do with line play is up for debate. What cannot be debated is that a player like C.J. Stroud, taken in the same draft, landed in a much better situation with a better line and skill players around him. That can only help a young signal caller.
The deterioration of line play also impacts offensive coordinators. Their willingness to call deeper-developing pass plays is reduced when the line cannot protect. Mays talked about the challenges these spotty lines represent for play callers.
“It’s difficult to account for your guys just losing that consistently,” Mays said. “You don’t want to call plays like that where you’re thinking, ‘If my right guard gets beat right here one-on-one, this play is going to get blown up.'”
Coaches can try to scheme up help for their linemen with receivers and running backs chipping or tight ends staying in to block, but there are only so many holes that can be plugged.
“The problem is if you are in a situation where guys are taking turns where they’re the ones allowing pressure, there’s nothing you can really do about that as an offensive coordinator,” Mays said. “If it’s one guy, you can get four hands in there to help, but there is no answer if it is multiple guys, and that’s where offenses can start to feel disjointed.”
That is how you can have some of the best young offensive minds coaching around the game like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, and still have NFL scoring averages dipping three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1992.
What can be done if it is highly unlikely the sport will go back to more padded practices? Monson points to a few possibilities.
“The NFL badly needs a developmental pathway for OL and QBs,” Monson said. “They basically need to have some kind of minor league system for these guys to get reps. They need NFL Europe, but with less expense attached to it.”
Monson sees the United Football League (UFL) as an option if they can survive financially, and wonders if the season can be aligned in a way that would allow a true minor league system similar to baseball that would make it possible to call players up.
He also points to the rise of private coaching networks like OL Masterminds, founded by Duke Manyweather, that are “doing great things” for offensive linemen.
There might be a simpler path to this developmental process, which would be to expand rosters. The NFL did that when they relaxed rules on who could be on practice squads and increased the number of players who could be carried to 16.
Expanding that even further and adding coaches dedicated to practice squads who could hold joint practices during the season could go a long way toward allowing players to get the time and coaching they need to develop in the NFL. It would also help buffer the league against injury attrition that is sure to worsen when they move to 18-game schedules.
Owners won’t like the cost associated with that approach, but they may be facing more dramatic losses if they let this trend continue.
The game will change, possibly moving away from what made it so popular. Offenses will become less physical and more reliant on mobile and improvisational quarterbacks who create offense outside the structure of the play that was called. We are already seeing fewer and fewer classic pocket quarterbacks in the league. They may eventually become extinct if they do not master the art of the rapid processing and time to throw, which will become harder to do if their line leaves them shell-shocked.
This could also lead to a gold rush for veteran offensive linemen who have proven their worth in the league. Simple supply and demand would make this seem like a certainty, but there is also evidence of GMs overpaying for mediocre linemen because quality players are so hard to come by. Those types of mistakes could cripple teams.
The impact of continued deterioration of line play could force coaches to adapt offenses to be less and less reliant on effective blocking. We have already seen an increase in quick game and screen passes. That could affect the types of athletes teams look for in receivers. Players who more resemble running backs in their skill set, like Deebo Samuel, could become more common as coaches try to “run” further away from the offensive line. Defenses may also be able to get away with lighter and lighter athletes in the front seven because they have less fear of the offensive linemen blocking them, which could, ironically, lead to a run game renaissance.
Offensive linemen are not likely to get the attention of the average fan or be the subject of an ESPN feature story. They do, though, have a significant impact on the quality of play for the sport, and there is no doubt NFL front offices and coaching staffs are actively seeking ways to patch what has become a cracked and eroding foundation.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 332: Guest Michael-Shawn Dugar
Hearts dropped across the nation when Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa dove forward into helmet-to-helmet contact in a game against the Bills last Thursday night. Tagovailoa has a history of serious concussions, and this was clearly going to be another. It was a classic example of adding injury to insult as the Dolphins were well on their way to an ugly home loss to their division rival after barely escaping week one with a win over the Jaguars.
The effervescent offense that led the NFL in yards and finished second in scoring a season ago, has managed to score only 15 points per game so far this year. A team that has been the perfect reflection of the city they call home, with flashy speed and flavorful play calling, has felt more like a spring break town that only manages to entertain for brief stints.
A struggling team that loses its quarterback can often be easy prey. Add in a cross-country road trip and the odds grow even longer. The Seahawks would be wise not to overlook this coaching staff and this Dolphins roster.
In some ways, it may be advantageous to play away from the lofty expectations of the home fans. Miami will look at this as a chance to signal to themselves, and every team in the league, that their season is not lost. They host the Titans next week and then travel to New England the week after before their bye. A 4-1 start has to feel within reach if they can just find a way to steal this game on the road.
Mike Macdaniel is a brilliant offensive coach who has almost single-handedly made this franchise relevant and cool. He will look at the job his friend Matt LaFleur did this weekend in Green Bay after losing their quarterback and ask, “Why not us?”
He still has the fastest player in football in Tyreek Hill, and more speed in Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. This is an offense that loves to run the football like the Seahawks last opponent in New England, but they do it completely differently than the Patriots. Where New England pounds the ball down the middle of the field, the Dolphins burn the edges in every possible way. Seven players (not including quarterbacks) have already had a rushing attempt this season.
They use misdirection and the threat of breakaway speed to stress defenses horizontally. Seattle enters the game tied for 3rd-most missed tackles in the league. Missing tackles on the edge in this matchup is asking for house calls. Players will dial it in for this game, but that does not ensure they will be able to reliably bring down some of the best weapons in football.
Passing will be a far bigger problem for Miami. Skylar Thompson will get the start and face one of the more complex, talented, and productive secondaries in the NFL in a raucous environment. The former 7th-round pick has only managed to throw for more than 200 yards in one game during his career, and has only 2 touchdown passes.
Seattle has allowed the fewest explosive passes in football, and has one of the highest pressure rates. Miami has the 30th-ranked pass blocking offensive line in the NFL, per ProFootballFocus, and they may be missing their best lineman if Terron Armstead is unable to play.
The health of Boye Mafe will be an important factor, as will the potential return of Uchenna Nwosu. More likely, Nwosu joins the team in Detroit the following week, but there is an outside chance he tries to practice this week. Jerome Baker is another injury to watch after he was unable to finish the game this week.
Seattle was unable to hold up against the power run game of the Patriots. Pete Carroll and crew had a hard time stopping the bleeding once the defense sprung leaks against the run in recent years. This will Mike Macdonald’s first chance to demonstrate a better ability to make adjustments in that aspect of the team.
Offensively, the Seahawks would love to have Kenneth Walker III back in the fold. They barely walked, let alone ran the ball in week two. Macdonald called out the offensive line needing to get some push. The Dolphins have some players who excel in run defense. Linebackers David Long Jr., former Seahawk Jordyn Brooks, and safety Jevon Holland are all excellent in run support.
Thousand-year-old defensive tackle Calais Campbell (he’s really 38) is arguably the most talented interior defensive linemen, which could give Seattle a much-needed advantage on the interior.
This is a game that will feature a lot of notable matchups. Connor Williams plays his former team who did not sign him after his injury. Brooks comes back to the team who drafted him but did not prioritize him in free agency. Baker can say the same. It is doubtful Dee Eskridge will be activated off the Dolphins practice squad, but he will be with the team.
Maybe the most entertaining with be Jalen Ramsey versus D.K. Metcalf. The two have a long history of acrimony. Each have had victories and defeats at the hands of the other. Ramsey has struggled mightily this year. Metcalf is coming off a huge performance, despite some costly drops. This will be his first real test in terms of keeping his head if Ramsey baits him.
The pressure will be on the Seahawks in this game given nobody will expect the Dolphins to be competitive with Thompson at quarterback. The line has already moved to -5.5 in favor of the Seahawks. Seattle will need to match the energy of the Dolphins who will be itching to make a statement, while also cleaning up the problems in their run defense and tackling.
The Seahawks have not yet shown the ability to separate from their opponent. This game is unlikely to be different. Look for some crucial mistakes by Thompson to provide the points needed for the Seahawks to win their third straight game.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOANew this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HAWKS. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while.
DVOA would tell you this game is a mismatch even if the Dolphins had their starter at QB. Miami being dead last in defending WR1, along with a 54.7 PFF grade for Ramsey, tells you how much their top corner has struggled. Seattle allowed a ton of catches and yards to tight end Hunter Henry last week, and speedy tight end Jonnu Smith could give them more trouble. It is interesting to see how well the Seahawks have done in defending passes to running backs so far. That will be tested in this game and it would be big if they can continue to contain those plays.
Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Dolphins key advantages on defenseRamsey has had a rough start to the season. He has given up a perfect passer rating of 158.3 when targeted, including a touchdown. He was questionable for the first week after battling a hamstring injury, and gave up some big plays against the Bills in week two. His PFF grade is a lowly 54.7, but you have to assume he will be up for playing rival receiver Metcalf in this one. The two have had some epic battles through the years.
The Dolphins defense has not been as bad as one might think. They have yet to surrender even 270 yards of offense in a game, and were put in numerous short-field situations after the three interceptions thrown last week.
Edge rusher Bradley Chubb is on PUP and will not be available in this one. Jaelan Phillips is their other stud edge rusher who made it back after an achilles injury from last season, but he has had a slow start this season.
Draft pick Chop Robinson has elite athleticism and has flashed early with the extra reps given Chubb’s absence. His speed could give Stone Forsythe problems, assuming George Fant is not yet back.
Brooks is an excellent coverage linebacker and Long Jr. is a fantastic run defender. Kendall Fuller is an excellent coverage corner opposite Ramsey.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseDespite the Dolphins respectable numbers in defending the run and some of their speedy personnel, the Seahawks have a chance to move the players on the interior. Zach Sieler and Benito Jones are not dynamic inside, and Campbell has finally started to show signs of wearing down.
Miami has one of the least productive pass rushes in the NFL through two weeks. They rank 28th in pressure rate, below a Patriots squad that had trouble getting to the quarterback against Seattle. Geno Smith is getting rid of the ball in 2.49 seconds, 3rd fastest in the NFL, and down significantly from the 2.75 seconds he averaged last season. That will make it hard for any team to reach him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off his best game as a pro, and that was against a quality nickel corner in Marcus Jones. This week, he gets the lowest-graded player on the Dolphins defense in Kader Kohou, who sports just a 30.6 coverage grade. He has been a slightly above average nickel defender during his time in the league, but this should be a sizable advantage for Seattle.
The Miami safety room was expected to be a strength with Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland. Neither player has done well in coverage so far, which may indicate some growing pains as they acclimate to playing together or the stress being applied to all coverage players with the unproductive pass rush.
One key difference between the Patriots and the Dolphins is the amount of man coverage. New England plays man more than most teams in the NFL and is predominantly a two-deep safety team (they lead the NFL with 34% of snaps in Cover 2). Miami leads the NFL in zone coverage snaps, with 38% coming in Cover 3.
That means Smith will need to be willing to utilize the underneath flat routes to running backs and receivers, as well as attack the seams with tight ends. This could be a good game for a guy like Laviska Shenault Jr. and Brady Russell to make their presence felt. Look for either Walker or Charbonnet to get a lot of targets out of the backfield.
Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Dolphins key advantages on offenseThis offense has underperformed, with or without their starting QB. They have not scored more than 20 points in a game despite being 8th in yards. The yards per play rank of 17 is closer to the reality of who they have been.
It was surprising to see their rushing ranks as they seemed to have some dynamic plays against the Bills, but none for huge gains. They attack the edges with unparalleled speed. Achane and Hill can take any carry to the house.
This will be a game where Seahawks linebackers, corners and safeties will have to be their best in tackling and strike the tough balance of being quick to the ball without being fooled by misdirection. Miami is doing everything they can to create false steps.
Raheem Mostert may not be ready to come back after a chest injury, but if he is, that would be a boost for their backfield. It sounds like Mostert’s replacement, Jeff Wilson, may be injured as well. Achane would simply get more carries if that was the case.
Hill is the most electric player in the sport. His matchup with Riq Woolen will be fascinating. Waddle presents challenges as well. As great as Devon Witherspoon is, he will be tested on his deep speed in this one. You could not have a bigger difference in opponent talent at the receiver position than what Seattle faced last week in New England versus what they will see this week versus Miami.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle gets a break in facing a backup quarterback. The health of left tackle armstead looms large. This defense boasts the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the NFL, and may be getting Nwosu back. Mafe’s practice status is something to watch as well after he had what Macdonald termed a “knee contusion” in the Patriots game.
Armstead is the only good pass blocker on the line. Although, his replacement Kendall Lamm, graded out well against the Bills. This will be the first road game of the season for this Dolphins team and the line is in worse shape than the Seahawks crew. They already have 6 false start penalties and 4 holding calls. A new quarterback, a lack of continuity along the line, and the loudest stadium in the sport could make for some mishaps.
Seattle disguises as well as anyone in the NFL, both in coverage and in pressure. McDaniel knows Macdonald well (and vice versa). Each coach has taken turns making the other look bad. McDaniel will need to do his best work to prepare his backup quarterback and injured offense to be ready for this one.
Special Teams
Jason Myers has had a strong start to the season after an awful preseason. Jason Sanders has been one of the best in the game for years. Dee Williams started to flash his potential with a key 23-yard punt return last week.
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The surprising New Orleans Saints retain their top spot in the rankings after a second dominant victory in week two. The Bills have had a more impressive strength of schedule, especially after the way the Cardinals played against the Rams, and have climbed into the second spot.
Minnesota and Tampa Bay are among the additional surprises, along with the Chargers and the Steelers. Arizona makes the biggest climb this week, all the way into the top ten. They are a bit inflated because the strength of schedule calculation assigned a higher value to the Rams since it has no information about all their injuries.
The Seahawks fall to 10th, which feels appropriate given one of the weakest strengths of schedule so far. The Chargers have an even weaker SOS, but their victories have been more dominant, leading to a greater point differential.
The 49ers are down at 16th, and that’s with a boost from SOS. Part of their problem is a negative passer rating differential (96.3 vs 101.4) and ranking 21st in Opponent Rush EPA. The Lions are also unexpectedly low given their talent. A 70.6 passer rating on offense is leading to a -16.2 passer rating differential. That is something to watch given the Seahawks face them in a week and currently have allowed the 4th-lowest passer rating.
Miami is the Seahawks opponent this week, and while the attention will be on the loss of their quarterback, the team has been pretty disappointing even when he was in the game. They are averaging just 15.0 points per game, with a 77.9 passer rating on offense, while allowing a 102.2 passer rating on defense.
It is still very early. These rankings tend to be worth paying attention after week three.
Rankings VisualizationThis view shows tiers of strength that develop over the course of the season.
RANKINGS EXPLAINEDPower rankings are always debatable. I don’t buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula many years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. The formula to calculate “Team Strength” was as follows:
(Rush EPA (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) – (Rush EPA (defense) + Opponent Passer Rating (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed) x SOS
There are weightings applied to the factors that put a heavier emphasis on passing than running.
The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success (roughly 70% of the teams ranked in the Top 10 by week 3 make the playoffs), but I am always looking for ways to improve it.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating20 Votes3.8Determining who you are would seem to be a personal journey. Every bloviating motivational speaker out there will tell you that you control who you are, and to never let others tell you your worth. The truth is far more complex. You control your actions, your decisions, your values. Others have more influence in determining how you are perceived. Perception plays a significant role in determining how much you are liked and valued. This is especially tangible when it comes to your professional life. You can self-determine that you are the best engineer in the world, for example, but others will actually decided if you are worthy of being paid like it. Some people bristle at this loss of control, especially when it diverges from their self-image. Engineers have the opportunity to prove themselves by striking out on their own and building a product and business independently. Football players do not have this option. They must convince others of their worth, and they must do so while relying on teammates who can either enhance or diminish their perceived performance. No player may have a greater gap between self-image and the perception of others than Geno Smith.
Mike Sando does an annual article for The Athletic where he surveys 50 coaches and general managers around the NFL to sort quarterbacks into tiers. Tiers are defined as such:
``` Tier 1: A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
Tier 2: A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Tier 3: A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
Tier 4: A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games. ``` Sando has sometimes summarized the difference between Tier 1 and Tier 3 as a spectrum of how much a team wins because of the quarterback versus how much they can win with him. Smith has been designated a Tier 3 quarterback in each of his two seasons as the Seahawks starter. Within that tier, Smith was close to the bottom, ranking only ahead of former Seahawk quarterback Russell Wilson, good for 20th overall.
Signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Some might revel at the idea of being considered the 20th-best in the world at anything, let alone a profession as celebrated and well paid as an NFL quarterback. You can be sure Smith takes little pleasure in the ranking. Safety Julian Love revealed as much after the game.
“I’ve never been around a quarterback who has as big of a chip on his shoulder as Geno,” Love said.
Smith hinted at it as well.
“The best quarterbacks always find ways to win,” Smith said. “I want to be regarded in that light, so I just want to continue to be there for my team, do what’s right, make the plays when they come.”
Smith, though, does not write his checks. His current contract matches where the voters in Sando’s article have him ranked, 20th in the NFL at the position. To convince John Schneider and other NFL decision makers to move him up in that list, Smith will need to prove the Seahawks are winning because of him, not just with him.
This game against the Patriots was a rousing opening argument. Smith completed a career-high 33 passes in 44 attempts (75%) for 327 yards and a touchdown. He also led the game-tying and game-winning drive, something no quarterback has done more often over the last year.
More remarkably, Smith’s numbers should have been better. Much better. His receivers were credited with five drops, and that number could have easily been seven depending on your definition of a drop.
As well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf played in this game, each dropped passes that cost the team big chunks of yards. Smith did not flinch in going back to his playmakers, time and again. Metcalf and Smith-Njigba made key catches on the drives that tied and won the game.
He did this all with a running game that was nonexistent. Zach Charbonnet has yet to prove he can carry the load when asked to be a starter. The offensive line did not make his job easy, creating precious few holes or push.
Smith showed elite pocket presence on multiple throws where his line gave up pressure. Here’s an animated illustration of one of those plays from ESPN’s Seth Walder
Geno pic.twitter.com/OitulWZ1S7
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 15, 2024
The Seahawks defense also was not at its best. New England gashed them on the ground for 185 yards rushing. They surrendered 20 points to a limited Patriots offense that they knew going in absolutely had to run the ball.
Smith rose above it all. More than that, he lifted his team above it all. They won because of him, not with him.
Even as those words are written, there is no doubt that some will read them and disagree. Few minds will be changed nationally when you throw for one touchdown and beat a Patriots team that is not expected to win many games. Some, though, are starting to see the light.
Through 2 weeks of season—-best QB basically no one has talked about
Geno Smith
Throwing it about as well as anyone.
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) September 16, 2024
Through two weeks, Smith ranks fourth in ESPN’s Quarterback Rating metric, right behind perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen. He has completed more passes for more yards at a higher rate of completion with fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott.
The discourse around Smith will remain tinged with skepticism until he and his team force their way into relevance. Unlike new players who start out with the benefit of the doubt or at least a neutral perception, Smith must change minds that are already made up about his worth.
In another fascinating schism between self-image and the perception of others, people tend to see themselves as whoever they are at that moment in their life, their most recent self, while others are more likely to see them as the collection of who they have been over time. Smith played like one of ten best quarterbacks in the game against the Patriots. He will need to sustain that performance to be perceived that way.
Support our sponsor and signup for exclusive deals for HB readers!Macdonald stacks second winEight men have coached the Seahawks before Mike Macdonald. Some of those men were responsible for getting Seattle their first win, their first playoff berth, the first Super Bowl appearance, their first Lombardi Trophy. None of those men began their Seahawks careers with victories in each of their first two games. Macdonald became the first when Jason Myers squeezed his kick through the uprights in overtime.
The biggest reason for the glittering record is the opponents Seattle has faced. Nobody will mistake Denver or New England for juggernaut contenders. That said, there are plenty of other teams who have not take care of their business in the first two weeks.
The 49ers lost to Sam Darnold and the Vikings. The Rams got crushed in Arizona and have yet to win a game. Dallas got crushed by the Saints. Detroit lost to the Bucs.
This Patriots team was well coached and played tough. They will give a lot of teams trouble this season. Their defense suffocated Joe Burrow and a Bengals offense that went into Arrowhead and moved the ball pretty well against a great Chiefs defense. The offense is bruising, with two running backs who break tackles nearly every carry and a quarterback who does not turn the ball over.
They are the tortoise. Well armored. Plodding. Tough to crush.
Macdonald could not have been happy that his team knew exactly what New England wanted to do on offense and were still mostly unable to stop them. The run defense took a big step back.
Brissett also made life hard by evading pass rushers and repeatedly finding his tight ends, especially in the first half.
Leonard Williams compared Brissett to Ben Rothlisberger in his post-game press conference and said the defensive linemen got together at halftime and told each other to keep their legs running when they make contact with Brissett as if he was a ball carrier instead of a quarterback.
It worked. They sacked him twice and held him to just 32 yards passing in the second half.
One of those sacks was the first (half) sack of Byron Murphy’s career. With time running out, and the Patriots driving for either a dagger touchdown or a pivotal field goal that would put them up by seven points, Murphy bull rushed his man and combined with Williams to bring down Brissett. The third down play not only forced a fourth down, but made for a longer field goal attempt.
Love mentioned after the game that he knew the kicker for the Patriots and that the longer field goal was going to mean a lower trajectory for the kick. He told Jake Bobo to switch spots with him just before the snap and knifed into the backfield to get a hand on the kick.
That opened the door for Smith to lead the team down for what became the tie.
The game felt uglier than the stats would indicate on defense. Most of that is due to the rushing yards and the pile of missed tackles.
Patriots receivers were a non-factor, finishing with just 19 yards on 3 receptions.
The Seahawks defense has held opponents to 4.0 yards per play, second-best in the NFL. Interestingly, the team on top, Tennessee, has one of Macdonald’s disciples coaching their defense.
Between the sticky coverage and the emerging pass rush, this group has the potential to be one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
There was less energy on that side of the ball, though, to start the game. Love acknowledged the slow start saying the 10AM start may have played a role.
Macdonald and his coaches did just enough to eke out the win. Ryan Grubb, in particular, called a great game through the air.
It is not easy to win any game in the NFL. Winning on the road, in a 10AM start, against a team that does not turn the ball over or miss tackles is especially challenging. Macdonald became the first Seahawks coach since Mike Holmgren in 1999 to win his first 10AM road game as a Seahawks coach.
He did it while missing his starting right tackle, his backup right tackle, his starting running back, his starting outside linebacker, and after losing one of his starting inside linebackers.
Who knows if Uchenna Nwosu would have made a difference defending the run in this game, but there is some historical evidence to suggest he would.
Stone Forsythe did an admirable job filling in at right tackle. Charles Cross seemed to have another strong game, as did Connor Williams, at least in pass protection. Laken Tomlinson had a rough start but seemed to steady. Anthony Bradford had multiple bone-headed penalties that cost his team.
Christian Haynes got his first action, subbing for Bradford on what became a 70-yard touchdown drive. The coaches will watch the tape and decide whether Haynes should be getting a higher percentage of snaps.
Jay Harbaugh and his special teams were as good in this game as they were bad in the first one. Myers made all his kicks, and the team needed every one.
Dee Williams had a 23-yard punt return that setup a field goal drive just before halftime to put Seattle up 17-13. He also had maybe the most underrated play of the game when he held onto the football after Nehemiah Pritchett collided with him on the Patriots punt in overtime. It was a difficult catch under pressure. Had he dropped it, the Patriots would have just needed to recover and kick a field goal to win. Huge bounce back game for the undrafted rookie returner.
Michael Dickson flipped the field multiple times, averaging almost 54 yards per punt with good coverage on most.
When it was all over, the Seahawks found themselves alone in first place atop the NFC West, with a wounded Miami team headed to Seattle next. It is normal for a team with a new coach and a new scheme to take some time to acclimate. The Seahawks have new coaches and new schemes on both sides of the ball, but have managed to stack two wins together even when facing a lot of adversity. Macdonald looked eager to use the film from this game to help correct some errors. There is new standard being set for this Seahawks team. The men inside that locker room feel it, even if perception elsewhere has yet to catch up.
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Tectonic movements can be subtle. The ground beneath our feet might move mere centimeters per year. The change goes unnoticed until those movements cause two plates to grind against each other, sending vibrations through the Earth. Football is a sport that invites that form of conflict each play between offense and defense. Different eras of football had more movement from one side of the ball than the other. The 70s were dominated by defense, with the emblematic Pittsburgh Steelers “Steel Curtain” defense leading the way to multiple Super Bowl wins. Bill Walsh almost single-handedly sent the league into an offensive era with the introduction of his West Coast Offense in the early 80s. Rule changes added wind to the offensive sails as scoring continued to climb after the turn of the century. There may be another tectonic shift underway. Scoring declined in each of the last three seasons for the first time since 1992. Schemes, tactics, and play callers are chipping away at the advantages offenses have enjoyed for decades.
The rise of the quarterback savantsWalsh’s impact on the game has been well chronicled. His introduction of higher percentage pass plays helped make passing a larger part of offenses. Pass attempts jumped roughly 19% from 26.2 in the 70s to 31.7 in the 80s. Completion rates across the league rose from 52% to 55% during the same time.
The increased reliance on passing put more responsibility on the shoulders of the quarterback. Joe Montana become the symbol of what it took to win consistently from the position. He and Walsh managed to not only bring about more reliable passes that replaced some running plays, but also found ways to make them explosive.
It took time, though, for the approach to spread across the league. Walsh’s coaching tree—with Mike Holmgren being arguably the most productive—methodically rose to power at a variety of NFL outposts and helped prove its efficacy by winning Super Bowls of their own in quarterback-centric systems.
Running backs—from Roger Craig to Emmitt Smith—were still highly valued and utilized. Franchises did not hesitate to use their most valuable draft capital on the position. It took a decade for that philosophy of roster building to change. The expanding dominance of passing led to just 32 first round picks in the 90s being used on running backs, down 37% from the 51 selected in the previous decade. That number has halved to just 16 in the most recent full decade (2010-2019).
The shift to passing had another ripple effect. More kids grew up idolizing their favorite quarterback. General football camps were not enough anymore. Specialized quarterback camps became prevalent, with kids learning at early ages how to master the position.
These savants first started entering the league in the late 90s, with Peyton Manning as the poster child. He was soon joined by Tom Brady and Drew Brees. This trio would dominate the new century of football. Each player had special physical gifts as a passer, but it was their cerebral approach to the position that helped them rise above the rest.
Defenses were not stagnant while offenses were evolving. They were devising ways to confuse quarterbacks by disguising pass rushes pre-snap that would cause lesser players to throw the ball exactly where the defense wanted or take a sack from a pass rusher they had not identified. Jim Johnson and his zone blitz scheme was among the most successful at preying on unsuspecting quarterbacks.
Manning, Brady, Brees, and Aaron Rodgers typified the savant quarterback who were able to win the chess match prior to the snap and know exactly where and when to attack the defense. This led to another massive leap in efficiency for players capable of making these reads.
Touchdown passes were increasing. Completion rates were rising. Passing attempts continued to grow. Interception rates dropped. All of the reward. Far less risk.
Increased access to data and analytics only added fuel to the passing fire. The idea of “establishing the run” became a meme. Teams that spent draft capital or early offensive downs (1st and 2nd) running the football were mocked by their fans.
Defenses mainly tried to combat this explosion with a more effective pass rush. Edge rushers were valued second only to quarterbacks. Dominant defensive tackles were right behind edge rushers.
The problem was that finding the next J.J. Watt, Von Miller, Aaron Donald, or Terrell Suggs was not easy, and even the best pass rushers still take a couple of seconds to reach the quarterback.
These savants became adept at getting rid of the ball before anyone could touch them. Brady became the greatest player of all-time in large part due to this ability. He had minimal mobility and made almost all his throws from the pocket. He had a knack for moving around within the pocket to buy an extra millisecond, but he and Manning would routinely get rid of the football in under 2.4 seconds. The average time to pressure in the NFL is 2.9 seconds, leaving Brady and Manning already thinking about the next play by the time most rushers would reach them.
That has left defensive play callers with a conundrum: how can they get these savants to hold onto the ball a half-second longer?
The swarmAny farmer will tell you that insects can be among their greatest enemy. Locusts are possibly their greatest fear. Harsh conditions can cause locusts to congregate in close quarters and morph into a form that accelerates reproduction and leads to swarms that can devastate crops. NFL defenses have found themselves in harsh conditions for decades while offensive crops have thrived. The ability of these defenses to morph, and what they are morphing to, is putting them in better position to eat.
Pete Carroll’s Legion of Boom defense in the early 2010s took the league by storm with a simplistic single high safety look that relied on exceptional player talent at a variety of positions to suffocate offenses of all shapes and sizes. Even the savants struggled.
Manning never beat them, finishing 0-2, including a 43-8 thrashing in the Super Bowl. Brees started 1-3 before beating a weakened version in 2016 to finish 2-3. Rodgers started off 0-3 before winning his last two. Even Brady finished 1-2, with his only win coming when Carroll’s Seahawks made the most controversial decision in Super Bowl history at the 1-yard line. Combined, they were 5-10 against the best defense of that era, and one of the best of all-time.
That led to other franchises clamoring for the Carroll defensive scheme. They would find its success difficult to replicate. The simplicity of the approach made it easy for quarterbacks of all levels to diagnose what coverage they would be running. Multiple Hall of Fame players were required to make it work. Carroll, himself, was ultimately done in by an inability to find an answer once his elite players left the field.
What might have been a defensive-led dynasty in Seattle never materialized and the first two decades of the 21st century largely belonged to the savants, who would account for 10 of the 20 Super Bowl wins over that period.
Defenses continued to be tortured by descendants of Walsh and his offense. Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid brought their own variations to the league with sudden and sustained success. It became customary for their teams to enter games already knowing which linebacker or safety they would torment with schemes that would regularly force those players into a Sophie’s Choice of conflict between different route combinations.
Between their play calling and the evolved breed of quarterback capable of diagnosing defenses before the snap, it felt inevitable that scoring would only climb higher.
So why did the opposite happen?
Ted Nguyen of The Athletic wrote an excellent piece back in 2022 about the influence of Vic Fangio. In it, Nguyen goes into detail about the lengths Fangio would go to in his ornate schemes to confuse quarterbacks before the snap, and even after.
Fangio favored a two-deep safety system that specialized in limiting explosive passes. At the most basic level, a single-high safety defense, like Carroll’s, is going to invite deeper passes and rely on elite safety play to cover more ground. Two-deep looks make it tougher to pass down the field, but invite running plays as there are fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage. Fangio was willing to risk vulnerability against the run in order to minimize big plays through the air.
Nothing about that is revolutionary. Teams have been playing one deep or two deep safety looks for decades. What made Fangio’s approach more innovative was the lengths he went to disguise which coverage they were in prior to the snap, and the nuances of split field coverage principles after the snap.
In more simple terms: Fangio’s defenses were made to look like they were in one coverage before the snap, and then maintain the ambiguity after the snap so that quarterbacks were forced to process more of their decisions during live play.
Pre-snap, the defense is committed to showing the same Cover 4 shell for as long as possible so quarterbacks have to make reads after the snap. Even after the snap, it’s hard to draw a bead on what the coverage is because of how the defensive backs disperse from the top down.
Ted Nguyen, from Vic Fangio, the most influential DC in modern NFL
Quarterbacks are taught to read specific keys from a defense in order to diagnosis what they will be facing. For example, the weak safety is often a coverage indicator. Fangio knows this and puts that player in an ambiguous spot that keeps the quarterbacks guessing until sometime after the snap. It is not necessarily difficult to read a moment after the snap, but imagine doing that with Myles Garrett barreling toward you versus the comfy moments before the ball is snapped.
You can see how that can close the gap between the time to throw and the time to pressure. Every extra tenth of a second of diagnosis post-snap increases the odds of pressure getting home or a hurried decision that ends poorly.
This approach replicated through the league, but there was another step forward in the works from another defensive wizard. Mike Macdonald had studied all these defensive masters, with a heavy emphasis on pressure packages that had been effective in stopping 3rd down plays.
Macdonald drew inspiration from zone blitz legends, Jim Johnson and Rex Ryan, while finding ways to limit the need for extra rushers. His contribution has come in two main ways:
- First, he makes diagnosing where the pressure is coming from difficult while generally only sending four rushers after the quarterback
- Second, he has devised a way to teach his players a wide variety of positions, responsibilities, and pressure patterns that allows him to mix fronts and coverages from game-to-game, and often from play-to-play
Nguyen wrote about Macdonald as well after he was hired as the Seahawks new head coach. In the story, Nguyen explains what makes Macdonald’s pressure packages unique.
When he does blitz, offenses usually have no idea where the pressure is coming from because his defenses can present so many different looks from week to week. The Ravens were so multiple because of the unique way Macdonald teaches and structures his pressure packages.
– Nguyen
Macdonald’s success at University of Michigan and Baltimore not only helped him land a head coaching gig, but has already started the branches of his coaching tree to grow with defensive coordinators from his staff occupying spots in places like Tennessee and Miami.
The combination of Fangio’s coverage disguises with Macdonald’s pressure disguises has done something more than raise the bar for opposing signal callers. It has changed expectations for what can realistically be elicited prior to the snap. If any player can have any coverage or pressure responsibility, and there is not a reliable way to pick out who is going to do what, quarterbacks are increasingly being asked to read defenses after the snap. Not everyone is capable of that feat.
Macdonald pushes things further by regularly rotating his players so that it even becomes hard to pick out a specific player an offense wants to pick on. They either won’t be in the game or in the same position or the quarterback will just have too much other pre-snap homework to finish before identifying the weak link defender.
The effect? Quarterbacks combined to average 188.3 passing yards in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. That was the lowest total for any week in 17 years.
Cody Alexander, of MatchQuarters.com, specializes in researching and dissecting defense.
“The ‘new’ Ravens system crew is probably the most diverse regarding pressure use and coverage,” Alexander said. “That includes the Seahawks, Chargers, Titans, Ravens, and Dolphins. Multiple hybrid schemes and fluidity within those packages are a hallmark of that system. Interchangeable parts allow them to run a volume of calls. This is confusing for the offense but simple to execute for the defense.”
Alexander sees these defenses as having an advantage over even some of the Fangio schemes.
“Fangio-adjacent systems are also well versed in the coverage aspects but tend to struggle against the run because there is a lot of pressure to win matchups up front that the safeties must tackle,” Alexander said.
What comes nextDefenses that play more two high safeties, even if it starts disguised as something else, remain susceptible to offenses who can run the ball well. There are some ways defenses can mitigate that risk, but it remains a vulnerability.
We are seeing some signs that offenses are investing more in their run game. Interior offensive linemen have seen their contract values soar. Running backs are seeing a mini revival in value. Christian McCaffrey won Offensive Player of the Year in 2023. Saquan Barkley signed a big free agent deal with Eagles, with Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor also inking big contracts. The 2023 draft had a top ten pick spent on a running back for the first time since 2018 and two backs selected in the first round overall.
Rush attempts per game rose four straight seasons from 2018 to 2022. That was the first time that has happened since 1978. The increase was modest at just over 11%, but the trend has been steady and coincides with the defensive changes.
Quarterbacks who can marry off-script ingenuity with on-script execution become the unicorn every team seeks. There will be more post-snap surprises that require elite instincts in the moment instead of the more robotic pre-snap diagnose and attack. Players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would thrive in any era, but their ability to improvise takes on even higher value in this new NFL. Allen’s ability to create with his legs adds another dimension.
There are more pre-snap savvy quarterbacks in the NFL than ever. They may not be to the level of the savants, but they grew up learning how to read keys and attack weaknesses in the defense. These coverage and pressure-bending defenses, though, have helped to create a deep middle class at the position who have no advantage over one another.
Offenses are not standing still. Coaches like McVay, Shanahan, and Reid continue to tinker in their labs. McVay was one of those coaches who invested a lot in the interior offensive line and had changed their run schemes to involve more power to take advantage of the lighter defensive personnel and lighter boxes. Shanahan has enough versatility on offense to attack defenses in a variety of ways that helped him lead his team to a Super Bowl appearance.
That game will largely be remembered as Patrick Mahomes growing his legend as the best player in the game, but it was Steve Spagnuolo’s defense holding the 49ers offense to 19 points in regulation and 3-12 on 3rd downs that made the victory possible. His defense finished 2nd in the NFL in points and yards allowed, while Mahomes and the offense struggled through a middling season.
Quarterbacks will continue to get the glory, but defenses are forcing them to evolve once again. The teams best able to hide their intentions in coverage and in pass rush will have an advantage that should be more durable than earlier scheme trends. The ground has shifted. Innovators like Macdonald may be ready to cause a full blown quake.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating0 Votes2.6Preseason games are a bit like relay races. Your first string hands off to your second string, and then to your third and fourth string. The Seahawks and Titans chose to rest their starters, leaving the second string to kick things off. Sam Howell, Tyrice Knight, Derick Hall, and others performed like starters to help build a 12-7 first half lead. But the bottom of the roster players stumbled repeatedly to eventually lose the lead and the game. While there is solace in the fact that none of those players will be in the game day lineup for Seattle, you can bet Mike Macdonald was not happy to tally his first loss.
The outcome of the game does not count toward regular season goals. That said, winning is a habit, and this game certainly should have resulted in a Seahawks victory. There were a few things that contributed to the loss:
- Jason Myers missed another extra point, which literally was the margin of loss
- D.J. James and a few fellow defenders had a number of penalties that extended drives for the Titans, including four first downs on 3rd down plays
- PJ Walker was as bad as Howell was good, missing open players and generally playing in an inaccurate panic
- Seattle played most of the game without true nose tackles as they rested Jarran Reed, Leonard Williams, and Johnathan Hankins, and only player Byron Murphy for a few series. That left defensive ends, Mike Morris and Myles Adams, playing a ton of snaps on the interior, which resulted in some soft run lanes for the Titans
The performances that matteredSam HowellHowell has been the rightful recipient of biting criticism from those, including me, who have covered the Seahawks during training camp. He had been holding onto the ball forever and throwing some cringe-worthy passes that were nowhere near his receivers. The common refrain on the sideline was that Walker was looking better than Howell.
The 23-year-old quietly started showing improvement in the week leading up to the first preseason game. He was more decisive and making more noteworthy throws. Still, he was inconsistent and had at least a few head-slapping throws every practice. His first game against the Chargers showcased a willingness and ability to throw the ball quickly, averaging 2.65 seconds from snap to throw. That would have ranked among the top ten fastest in the NFL last season, after Howell ranked roughly 50th in that number in Washington.
This week, he showed off his big play throwing ability that helped him finish with the 8th-most big time throws in the NFL last year. His touchdown to Easop Winston Jr. was an absolute dime. Winston is known for his great hands, but none were required as Howell practically walked that ball down the field and nestled it in the receiver’s gloves.
He also rifled a pass up the seam to Cody White for 33 yards that was perfectly timed and fit in a tight window. On the same drive, he threw a great pass to Brady Russell who, unfortunately, got too excited about breaking a tackle and did not complete the catch. No matter, he hit Laviska Shenault Jr for 18 yards on the next play.
Maybe most impressively, he drove the team 43 yards in 38 seconds to get a field goal before half time in a well executed two-minute drill.
He finished 11/14 for 153 yards (10.9 YPA), 1 TD / 0 INT for a 136.0 passer rating. One of those three incompletions was the pass that Russell dropped.
Howell has now played in two preseason games without putting the ball in harm’s way. He did not go two straight games last season without throwing an interception. He remains a developmental project, and fans would be wise to not overestimate what he is capable of now based on preseason games against backups. That said, it is nothing but good news for his future potential and what Ryan Grubb can do to develop the quarterback position. Seattle has not had a coach who could truly develop QB talent since Mike Holmgren. Grubb appears ready to take that mantle.
Christian Haynes vs Anthony BradfordThis one is tough to call, but was fascinating to watch. Haynes overtook Bradford for the starting right guard spot during practice this week. The team chose to play both at the same time in this game which setup an interesting way to see them compete. Bradford played right guard and Haynes took over for Tomlinson at left.
There will be those that take that as a sign that Haynes is challenging Tomlinson. I remain convinced that is not the case.
It will take more film review to determine which of the two guards had a better game, but my initial read was that Haynes got more push in the run game.
Edge players: Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, Darrell TaylorThe second year edge player has been one of the breakout players of camp and that story continued in this game where he notched his second sack in as many weeks. Hall has elite power, and is finding ways to be a factor on a number of plays rushing the passer and defending the run.
There were even some packages where they had Hall lined up inside at defensive tackle with Murphy next to him and Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe on the edges. Taylor is looking like a guy ready to make a Mafe-like leap in his second season.
Mafe and Taylor each had some good moments as well. Taylor, in particular, should be credited with a few pressures.
One guy to watch in this room is Jamie Sheriff, who was just signed about 10 days ago and flashed in practice and then against the Chargers and again this week with a sack and a terrific tackle on a run play when he was double teamed. It would be tough for him to make the final roster but he definitely has the attention of the coaching staff with the way he has played so far.
Mike Morris & Myles AdamsMorris and Adams got a ton of snaps in this game. They were asked to play a bit out of position for much of the night without any true nose tackle help in the middle to occupy blockers. Both had good moments rushing the passer and defending the run.
Morris was the better of the two, with a sack, two QB hits, and a batted pass. All signs are pointing to him being a highly productive rotational defensive lineman this season.
Adams is on the razor’s edge of the roster bubble. I do not currently have him making the roster, but he has played well enough to make that a tough call.
Tyrice KnightI did my best to calm everyone down this week when there was mass misinterpretation of Macdonald’s comments about Knight needing “three years” to develop. Macdonald and the team are thrilled with Knight’s development and are simply trying to keep the rookie’s head out of the clouds and his feet on the ground.
That job got even tougher after a fantastic game from the rookie against the Titans. He made plays all over the field defending the run and the pass. He shot gaps, had a tackle for loss, and delivered bone-crunching hits.
Macdonald finally succumbed to the excitement of what he was seeing on the field and was glowing in his postgame comments about Knight.
The subtext to keep in mind here is that Knight was not well-liked by most draft analysts or even necessarily the Seahawks personnel department. John Schneider made it clear Macdonald wanted this guy. The implication is that Macdonald, who came up as a linebacker coach, has an excellent eye for talent at the position. Seattle fans enjoyed Pete Carroll’s eye for cornerbacks and safeties during his tenure. They may be in store for a linebacker factory under Macdonald.
Laviska ShenaultThis guy is quickly becoming one of my favorite Seahawks to watch. He brings aggression and physicality to the receiver position like few have done in Seattle since maybe Golden Tate. He even made blocking on kickoff returns worth cheering for when he launched himself into a would-be tackler on a kickoff in the first half.
Shenault caught another three passes for 27 yards, and carried the ball once for 5 yards. He had to have broke at least five tackles on the day. Grubb is finding ways to leverage these unique strengths, giving the Seahawks their version of Cordarrelle Patterson. This signing could wind up being one of the best deals of the offseason.
Running backsKenny McIntosh easily had his best game as a pro as he showcased his ability to get skinny through the line, break tackles, and get to the edge. He also caught two more passes for 17 yards.
On the surface it would seem he retook the lead for the RB3 spot on the roster as George Holani only had 2 carries for 3 yards. On the other hand, it was notable that in a game where starters mostly sat, Holani barely played.
The coaching staff may believe they already have seen what they need to see from Holani. It will be telling how much he and McIntosh play in the final preseason game next week.
Kobe Lewis had an ugly stat line of 4 carries for -1 yards, but the blocking in front of him was atrocious. Grubb repeatedly tried running over the left side of the third string line which featured Garrett Greenfield or Ilm Manning at left tackle and Sataoa Laumea at left guard. That was bizarre given that Mike Jarrell and Raiqwon O’Neal were sitting there on the right side.
Offensive line depthThere were a few things of note here. First, Stone Forsythe did not have a great game. Second, Jerrell looked very good again. It would have been ideal to see Jerrell get some snaps against the Titans backups instead of their third string.
O’Neal did not get any snaps at center. That could bode well for Olu Oluwatimi’s chances to stick as the backup center. O’Neal has been getting some center chances during practice and his versatility at guard makes him more appealing than Oluwatimi in some ways. He is also bigger and stronger and a better run blocker. That position will be something to watch when Connor Williams hopefully takes the field this week.
Tight endsRussell is looking more and more like a guy who could play an impactful role on this team. Even his dropped pass was on a play where he got open in space and was looking to make it into something bigger. His catch along the sideline later in the game was easily the best play of the game. How he managed to catch that pass with the defender draped all over him while dragging his toes just inside the field of play was Bobo/Lockett-esque. You don’t see that in tight ends very often.
AJ Barner had one catch and did a nice job turning it upfield and breaking a tackle. Better.
Marquise BlairBlair remains a very talented safety who can cover and hit. He flashed his physical nature on a number of big hits. He also failed to cover or tackle in coverage a few times. It seems very unlikely he can overtake either Coby Bryant or Ty Okada in the safety depth chart in the time remaining, but you have to think the team would love to have him as part of the practice squad with a chance to develop a guy who could wind up a starting safety down the line.
One moreSeattle plays the only home game of the preseason next week against the Browns. It will be interesting to see how Macdonald handles that final warm-up. He might want Geno Smith and DK Metcalf and others to get a few live game snaps before the regular season. He might prefer to only play the back-end of the roster players the whole game.
The preseason has been productive to this point with many of the players Seattle needed to flash looking like they are ready to step forward. Macdonald and crew are just three weeks from opening up against the Broncos at Lumen Field. Fall football is just around the corner.
Unpredictability is massive part of what makes sports captivating. We watch because we do not know what will happen on any given play in any game in any season. Players and teams rise and fall. The NFL has been designed pull everyone toward the middle. The best teams are dragged down, and the worst teams are pushed up. The draft, free agency, the salary cap, and the brevity of player careers makes it nearly impossible to sustain excellence. Seattle started a regenerative cycle two years ago when they traded Russell Wilson and became one of the youngest teams in football. Instead of dropping down to the depths of the NFL, they managed to have a winning record in both 2022 and 2023. That might sound like success, but being one game over .500 each season puts a franchise in danger of being mired in the mediocre middle of the league where the gravitational pull will gladly keep you in an endless orbit, just outside of relevance. A variety of outcomes must break toward the high end of their variant scenarios in order to achieve the necessary escape velocity. Early signs are that may be exactly what is happening.
Byron MurphyThe first round pick was a player that was expected to go in the top ten picks of the draft. He should not have been available when Seattle picked at 16. The Titans choosing JC Latham took a player the Seahawks were rumored to be enamored with off the board. The Falcons choosing Michael Penix Jr. removed a likely landing spot for Murphy and made Rome Odunze available for the Bears, who were set to pick Murphy if Odunze was not available. It is possible that the severity of injury to Ryan Ramczyk forced the Saints to address that need instead of being tempted to draft the best defender. The Colts managing to agree on an extension to defensive tackle DeForest Bucker prior to the draft took another suitor off the board. The compounding probabilities of what needed to happen for Murphy to wind up in Seattle is already dizzying. It took remarkable good fortune for this scenario to play out.
None of that factors in the possible scenarios for how good of a player he would prove to be. Murphy started camp slowly, but has become a dominant force once pads came on. He consistently wins against various competition in 1v1 pass rush drills, and did the same this week against the Titans during joint practices according to reports from both Titans and Seahawks reporters.
He was possibly the best player on the field in his first preseason game against the Chargers, showing impact against the run and the pass. Players and scouts have been drooling over what they saw. Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, and Chris Long have already dubbed him a player to watch.
Teammates and coaches have commented on how coachable he is, how disciplined he is in taking care of his training, and how hard he works.
It would be hard for this to be going any better for Seattle to this point.
Riq WoolenWoolen had a mischaracterized 2023 season after gaining national acclaim as a rookie. People oversimplified that he took a step back. The truth is that he was one of the top press man cover corners in the NFL. What he struggled with was tackling and playing off coverage. He also dealt with some injuries.
There were fair questions raised about whether his body and mind were going to be a fit for Mike Macdonald’s defense. He had always been a relatively carefree spirit. It was not clear whether he would put in the work on his body and his game to grow.
He came to camp stronger and committed to changing the narrative about what many had called a “down” year. His work with coaches on improving his off coverage has shown up in camp. His improved strength has helped him battle with D.K. Metcalf in ways that few can. He impressed all that witnessed him at the joint practices with the Titans.
Leslie Frazier, Mike Macdonald, and Aden Durde have all been measured in their praise, not because they fear he is not playing well, but because they want to keep a player who looks like is ready to realize his seemingly limitless potential grounded and grinding.
What appeared to be a player teetering toward “good but not great” status, now appears poised become one of the best cornerbacks in football.
Christian HaynesSeattle was widely known to need better interior line play headed into the draft. Most draft analysts predicted they would pick a player like Troy Fautanu in the first round. The decision to pick Murphy meant the Seahawks would not have another pick until the third round.
Christian Haynes was expected to go in the second round, but somehow lasted all the way to the Seahawks in the third.
He was coming from a lesser football school in UConn, where it was fair to question how well he would do against stiffer competition.
Like Murphy, he started camp slowly but gained steam as the pads came on. After getting some reps with the first string at left guard when Laken Tomlinson took veteran rest days and having a strong first preseason game, he was given the chance to play with the starters at right guard in the Seahawks final joint practice with the Titans.
This represents a sizable step toward the high end of the variance of outcomes, which would be for him to be a starter when the season begins. He was very clearly not on that track for the first two weeks of camp. That the coaches are seeing enough to open the door to a starting job bodes well.
It should be acknowledged that part of this also has happened because second year guard Anthony Bradford has not improved enough as a pass blocker to defend his starting role. Still, that was not a huge surprise. Having a rookie pushing him and possibly surpassing him before week one would represent improvement over last season’s level of play at the position.
Charles CrossCross was the 9th overall pick in the draft, and first choice that came to Seattle as part of the Wilson trade. He has been a slightly above average left tackle in his first two years. Still just 23 years old, Cross spent his offseason improving his strength and flexibility.
His movement skills look fluid and special in pass protection. Nobody has been able to beat him in 1v1 pass rush drills. Although, there was a report that Arden Key of the Titans may have beat him once in the second joint practice.
Ryan Grubb has been glowing in his evaluation of what he can become, and Cross looks ready to take the next step in his development. It is too early to say whether he has improved as a run blocker, but even if he simply becomes a high quality pass protector, that would represent a critical jump in not only offensive line play, but in how the offense can operate.
Derick HallSeattle used one of their two second round picks last year to draft Hall as a pass rusher. They claimed he was one of only 15 players with a 1st round grade on their board. That evaluation appeared dubious when Hall struggled mightily as a rookie.
He was unproductive as a pass rusher and ineffective as a run defender. It was not a season that would make a 5th round rookie feel good, let alone a 2nd rounder.
Hall attacked his offseason with vigor and returned to camp looking both stronger and leaner. He also has shown more bend and more variability in his pass rush repertoire. Hall credited boxing for helping expand his hand fighting and counter moves.
He may be the early leader among the edge rushers in demonstrating chemistry with the interior linemen when it comes to two-man twists and stunts. His top-shelf power is tough to handle when you know it is coming as an offensive lineman. It becomes far harder when you are not anticipating it because Hall comes tearing around the back of Murphy or Leonard Williams and strikes an unsuspecting guard.
Hall led the team in tackles and pressures in his first preseason game, and appears well on track to make his rookie season a distant memory.
D.K. Metcalf A player who already has established himself as one of the top 20 at his position in the NFL might seem like an odd addition to this list. The reality is Metcalf has the physical talent to be the best receiver in football. What has kept him from that has been some combination of who was calling the plays, who was throwing him the football, and his attention to detail, especially around contested catches.
Metcalf has looked like a cheat code during camp. Everyone fell in love with the vision of this massive man with unmatched speed, power, and leaping ability being able to dominate anyone he went up against. There were flashes, like the playoff game against the Eagles, but the consistency was not there.
He looks like a guy who could get 150+ targets in Grubb’s offense and crush all who oppose him. Many were hoping he would become a bigger focal point with the new offense. Few expected him to become a more dominant player as well.
Metcalf is being used all over the field, catching passes at all depths and directions, and is finally looking ready to make contested catches with regularity. He has arguably looked like the best player on the team, and that simply was never the case in his prior seasons.
Kenneth Walker IIIWalker has had a productive first two seasons in Seattle. He has been the unquestioned starter in the backfield and has had a number of explosive plays. Still, his yards per carry dropped last season from 4.6 as a rookie to 4.1, and his big plays receded as well.
This is the time of year when players talk about being in the best shape of their lives. Running backs, in particular, are challenging to assess during practices where contact is limited and when they do not play in the games.
Walker looks primed for his biggest season to-date. He is physically stronger and more explosive than he has ever been. His knees are a cartoonish blur as he runs by defenders. But it is Grubb’s vision of how to use him that puts him at the high end of his variance.
Grubb wants to unleash Walker as a receiver, and he wants him available on 3rd downs. That meant Walker needed to improve as a pass blocker. Seattle managed to hire Kennedy Polamalu as running backs coach, and he is uniquely qualified to tutor Walker on pass protection.
That has unlocked Walker in the role that Grubb wants for him, and will increase his utilization considerably. That will not only make Walker more productive, but make the Seahawks a more dangerous and effective 3rd down offense. It also gives Geno Smith a powerful check-down security blanket that will make him less likely to force the ball downfield and make it more difficult for defenses to cover all the weapons Seattle possesses.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJSN had a fine rookie season, albeit below the lofty expectations the preceded his entry into the league. Shane Waldron oddly decided a terrific slot receiver should be used primarily on screens. Smith-Njigba, to his credit, became a decent threat on those plays, but it never seemed to play to his already considerable strengths over the middle of the field.
Enter Grubb. Smith-Njigba has been the Mayor of the Middle during training camp. He has carved up the secondary, and that continued in Tennessee.
Smith mentioned that Smith-Njigba called him during the offseason and wanted to train together. They threw all offseason, and the connection between the two now seems to go much further than what appeared tentative at times last year.
Grubb has JSN looking like JSN. This was the player who was considered better than Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson when they were teammates in college. Just adding that level of receiver to this offense would have raised the ceiling for what was possible. Adding that to what is looking like a series of offensive players stepping forward in an offensive scheme that is more dangerous and a play caller who is more crafty and daring, has this unit looking extraorbital.
Tyrice KnightThere was a collective groan among most Seahawks fans when Knight’s name was called in the fourth round of this year’s draft. It was known that Seattle had depth issues at inside linebacker and the draft was thin at that position.
John Schneider somewhat distanced himself from the pick by making it clear Macdonald wanted this guy. Macdonald tempered expectations by saying Knight would be asked to learn things he had not done in college. Knight was not highly recruited and was a very rare UTEP draft pick. All signs pointed to a developmental player who would hopefully contribute on special teams as a rookie.
Fast forward to today and Knight has been one of the most pleasant surprises of camp. He has moved ahead of Jon Rhattigan and Patrick O’Connell, who had been starters during OTAs, and has been taking starting reps while Jerome Baker has been sidelined with an injury.
Macdonald is still tempering expectations, but this time it is because Knight is playing well enough that he wants to keep the youngster grounded and focused. Knight received a sparkling 89 grade from Pro Football Focus in his first preseason game, and showed some talent in coverage.
He looks like a player who can contribute this year on defense should the need arise, and could be a multi-year starter in the future.
Connor WilliamsSeattle had no business adding a Pro Bowl quality center to their roster after neglecting the position for years. They went into camp with Olu Oluwatimi penciled in as the starter and Nick Harris as the backup.
One of the few players who has performed closer to the lower end of variance has been Oluwatimi, who did not add the requisite strength to hold up in the middle of the line. But the stars continued to align for Seattle as Williams made a miraculous recovery from a December ACL injury and became available when the Seahawks were one of the few suitors.
He has not yet practiced with the team. Even having him on the roster, though, is toward the high end of variance for possible outcomes at this position. In fact, one could argue his presence resets the range of possible performance for this position. There was very little reason to think Oluwatimi or Harris would be Pro Bowl level players. Williams would just need to perform at prior levels to achieve that status.
The sum may be greater than the partsThere are more names that could be added to this list. The coaching staff, Grubb especially, had a wide range of possible outcomes and all of them appear to be toward the top end of the spectrum. Smith has been excellent in camp. Devon Witherspoon is playing well. The safety room looks strong and flexible.
It takes more than talent and coaching to go from mediocre to great in the NFL. It takes a lot of good fortune and positive variance. Mike Holmgren used to always say that to have your best seasons, you need your best players to play their best. With two weeks left in the preseason, Seattle appears to have a plethora of young talent poised to have career years or burst onto the scene as rookies.
None of this counts yet. It all still matters. This is looking increasingly like the version of the multiverse Seahawks fans will want inhabit for years to come.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 327: Is Dayna Excited Yet?
Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have talked about how they wanted to get more physical as a football team. Today’s episode shines a spotlight on the positions that can help establish that identity that most fans might not think about. There will be sound to listen to and a few highlights to watch.
Episode 141 of HB Mornings goes into each player on the roster who helped or hurt themselves this weekend. Check it out!
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating21 Votes4Failure and success are greeted with the same refrain during this time of year, “It’s just the preseason.” You hear those words time and again to temper expectations after a player or team shines or when the opposite occurs. Clichés reach ubiquity by having a kernel of wisdom buried within. How many times have we collectively fallen in love with a player during the preseason only to find they were not even worthy of the NFL? Judging performance when there is no game-planning and inconsistent usage of starters across teams is perilous. All these things can be true, and it is still okay to be excited about what the Seahawks did last night in their first game under Mike Macdonald.
What stood out the most in a dominant performance was how well coached the offense and defense were throughout the game. The defense was fast, disciplined, and physical. I counted just one play where a defender was left isolated versus an offensive player in the open field. Macdonald, Aden Durde, and crew have been emphasizing team tackling all through camp, with drills designed to help players always play in pairs to bring down ball carriers. It showed time and again in this game.
Macdonald has talked about the “run wall” that is a priority to build in his defense. The Chargers tried to be physical and run the ball up the middle. They found no room.
Macdonald has talked about the importance of third down defense and how important communication is to take away what opponents want to do in those situations. Los Angeles finished the game 2-13 on third downs.
On offense, Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have repeatedly talked about how they want to be a physical team that can run the ball. They finished the game with 39 carries and 156 yards rushing.
Grubb has talked about how important it is to be able to convert third and short, and improve overall third down performance. The Seahawks finished 11-20 on third down conversions.
The pattern here is clear. The areas this coaching staff has emphasized are showing up on the field. There is no better indication of quality coaching than when you can foreshadow how your team will play. It shows that not only is your team listening, but that they are learning in a way that translates to the game.
Every coach and leader can say glossy things that they want. Only the best are able to translate words into reality.
The Seahawks were tough, gritty, dynamic, aggressive, and disciplined. It has been a long time since those words applied to this team, even in the preseason.
Defense plays a complete gameBoth sides of the ball played well. The defense, though, was especially impressive. It felt like almost every player at every level contributed to the performance.
Byron Murphy was a bull in the middle. He had a tackle for a loss, an almost sack, and multiple pressures where he pushed the pocket back into the lap of the quarterback. He has the potential to be a blue chip player for years to come, and took a promising first step.
Mike Morris had a terrific game with multiple pressures and a pass breakup in coverage.
Nearly every edge player made a play. Boye Mafe and Uchenna Nwosu created pressure off the edge multiple times. Derick Hall had 5 tackles and a sack. Newcomer Jamie Sheriff was impressive in the fourth quarter with multiple pressures.
Tyrice Knight had a solid debut. He had four tackles and was good in coverage. He had made huge strides since OTAs. Tyrel Dodson flashed his physical style, meeting a ball carrier in the backfield and standing him up. Jon Rhattigan had 5 tackles and a sack, and generally looked like the player I loved his rookie year who played with speed and instinct. His injuries seemed to have diminished him as a player the past two years, but he looks all the way back.
Riq Woolen had a pass breakup on 3rd down. D.J. James had multiple pass breakups.
K’Von Wallace had a big hit that led to an interception by Coby Bryant. Ty Okada had a number of good hits and pass breakups. Marquise Blair showed off his length to deflect a pass in the end zone.
That is every position on defense represented with positive plays. There were scant few bad plays, let alone bad performances. There was maybe one busted coverage where I think Nehemiah Pritchett missed his deep responsibility, but I can’t be sure it was his error.
This was a crew that tackled well, and rushed the passer well from both the inside and edge and with just four rushers most of the time. Coverage was sticky and coordinated. Passing windows were narrow. The Chargers offense was helpless. If not for a broken play QB scramble and a 58-yard field goal, they would have been shutout in the home opener of their new coach.
Offense showcases ball controlThis was not a flashy game on offense. Sam Howell averaged less than 5.0 yards per attempt passing. The vast majority of the passes were near the line of scrimmage. A fan who has been hearing all the talk of Grubb’s offense being explosive and pushing the ball down the field had to be scratching their head.
Trust me. This offense will have those things in spades.
It was clear that Grubb came into this game wanting to work on and learn a few things. First, he knows the run game is key to what they want to do and has been trailing the execution in the pass game. Run blocking also takes more repetition for the offensive line to build the proper coordination, and it is hard to get true reps in practices where full contact is not allowed.
That made it invaluable to get these 39 chances to run the ball from various downs and distances. Seattle largely did well in moving the Chargers off the line of scrimmage. The focus seemed to be running up the middle, gaining the toughest yards. Kobe Lewis and George Holani stood out for their ability to not just hit the hole, but move the pile.
Kenny McIntosh finished with the most yards (40), but is not strong enough to break many tackles or add yards after contact. It felt like he left some yards on the field.
Holani’s touchdown run was gorgeous and he nearly had another score on a good catch and lunge for the end zone. It would have been great to cap off the drive to start the 3rd quarter with a touchdown, but Seattle was unable to block the Chargers condensed defensive alignment.
Grubb showed he will also utilize the horizontal run game. Laviska Shenault Jr. and Dee Eskridge had productive jet sweeps. Dareke Young can be used in the same fashion.
The best part was seeing the team repeatedly choose to run the ball on 3rd and short, and repeatedly convert by blowing the Chargers off the ball. Christian Haynes, in particular, had some impressive push. Pharaoh Brown also had some notable blocks to create running lanes earlier in the game.
They did all this without Kenneth Walker III, Charles Cross, Connor Williams, or Abe Lucas. There is reason to be optimistic about the run blocking of the Seahawks offensive line and the run game overall. That is not something Seahawks fans could say with a straight face for a while.
Howell did something that will go unnoticed and unappreciated by the average fan, but will be celebrated by his coaches. He played the role of game manager. Almost all of his throws were safe and productive. He only put the ball in harm’s way once. The ball came out fast. He used his legs wisely. Almost everything he did was repeatable and within the framework of the offense.
All that matters because Howell was a player who was sacked 65 times and intercepted 22 times last season, both worst in the NFL. Howell is an improvisational quarterback with a good arm and above average athleticism. He has proven he can make big-time throws in the NFL. He has not proven he can limit his mistakes. This game was a solid step forward in that regard.
His lone touchdown pass came on a throw to tight end Brady Russell who bullied his way into the end zone. Russell is a guy more fans need to familiarize themselves with. His talent on special teams, his infectious personality, and his speedy physical play at tight end could see him be on this roster for many years.
He is solidly ahead of rookie AJ Barner as the third tight end on this team.
Shenault jumped off the screen as a valuable weapon. He caught a couple receiver screens and did his YAC thing, piling up 31 yards after the catch. He also had a 44-yard kickoff return. This guy is a special athlete who can provide something Seattle has not had at the position since maybe Koren Robinson or Golden Tate. Make a simple throw, and let him go to work in space going around or threw people.
Young had a good game as well. As it stands, I still have Young and Shenault as my final two receivers making the roster, which would leave off Cody White, Easop Winston Jr., and Dee Eskridge. That battle will continue over the coming weeks.
What stood out about this performance on offense was how little Grubb needed to risk in order to be productive. Almost everything we saw was repeatable and the degree of difficulty was low.
Robert Mays of The Athletic, described the Seahawks offense under Shane Waldron as a “high-wire act.” The throws Geno Smith was asked to make were difficult and risky. The run game was sporadic and weak up the middle.
Having an offense that can incorporate quick passing, easy throws, and a physical run game has the chance to be far more reliable week-to-week. It also will make the downfield passing attack that much more lethal. Fans are going to lose their minds when they see what D.K. Metcalf and Smith look like in this system.
Special teams needs workJay Harbaugh was the one Seahawks coach who likely left this game feeling a bit uneasy about how his guys performed. Jason Myers did his thing by missing an extra point and also not kicking the ball far enough on a kickoff which gave the Chargers the ball at the 40-yard line. Kick coverage was not great, with multiple missed tackles.
There was Shenault’s return and Michael Dickson was excellent, as were his punt coverage teams.
This group may need more time in practice than they have been receiving. The assumption has been some of the special teams work has been done in private to keep even media eyes from seeing what the team is planning for kickoffs. This game made it look more like the group has just not received as much time as other units.
There was a time where Pete Carroll had to make an adjustment to his practice schedule to create more time and attention for special teams. It may be that Macdonald has to do the same if things do not improve as preseason rolls along.
All smilesFor a guy who claims to rarely smile, Macdonald could not help himself Saturday night. He was beaming as he watched his team put all their teaching into action. It is wise to temper enthusiasm when watching a game like this. The Chargers are not the most talented roster out there and were not playing some of their best starters.
That pragmatism may protect your heart from disappointment or your reputation from looking naive. It also robs you of the joy of hopping on the bandwagon early for the full ride. This coaching staff has now demonstrated that they can call their shots.
These players are showing this roster is more talented and hungry than the vast majority of the NFL knows.
The last time the Seahawks had underrated talent, a scheme advantage on defense, and a great coaching staff that had players bought in, we had a lot of fun. We also watched those teams dominate in the preseason.
This was just a step. But if you lift your eyes and look in the direction Macdonald has this team going, it is hard not to get excited about what lies ahead.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 326: The Vibes Are Immaculate
Each Friday leading into the season I will share my current projected 53-man roster. It has already changed substantially and will continue to do so. Usually, I will cover it on HB Mornings, but I will do my best to get it up on the blog as well.
Roster outlookThis is Mike Macdonald’s first season as a head coach. Therefore, we don’t have a lot of history to look back on for how he sets his final roster. What we do have is the numbers he kept at each defensive position over the last two seasons in Baltimore while he was the defensive coordinator.
The table below shows his keeps for 2023, as well as his average over both seasons. It also shows my current projected keep numbers for each position group. Note, that DL in Macdonald’s world includes nose tackles and defensive ends, but not edge rushers/outside linebackers. I have split outside and inside linebackers into separate buckets.
The final column shows the difference between my projections and what Macdonald kept last season.
Current projections
QuarterbacksStraightforward here. Geno Smith and Sam Howell make the roster. PJ Walker likely to practice squad as emergency third quarterback.
Running backsMuch tougher here. Walker and Charbonnet are locks. Most thought Kenny McIntosh would be as well when coming into camp. Now, he might be behind two players by the time camp breaks. I have George Holani squarely ahead of him, and I am projecting Kobe Lewis to leapfrog him as well after preseason games complete. Most controversially, I have the Seahawks keeping only three backs. Guys like Brady Russell and Pharaoh Brown can play H-Back, and I think they need to keep an extra receiver for the return game. Also, I think they can stash almost any of those guys on the practice squad and have them available to call up if needed.
Wide receivers This is a huge battle at the back of the room. Metcalf, Lockett, Smith-Njigba and Bobo are locks. I have the team keeping two more. Shenault, Winston, and Eskridge all have been getting turns at returner. Dareke Young is excellent on special teams and provides some versatility as a runner. I am currently projecting Young and Shenault make the roster, but Winston is making it tough. Cody White has had a good camp as well, and if he can have a big preseason on special teams, he could fight his way into the conversation. Eskridge has not done enough yet. Hayden Hatten is a good bet for the practice squad.
Tight endsFant and Brown are locks. I have moved Barner from a lock to high confidence. He has not had the best camp, and guys like Russell and Mabry are reliable and quality special teams players. Russell, especially, could hop Barner on the depth chart. I do have the team keeping four at this position. It would be the first place I would look to trim if I decided to go back to four running backs. All these guys outside of maybe Barner could be stowed on a practice squad.
Offensive lineFor the first time, I am projecting Abe Lucas to start the year on PUP. There is no sign of him returning sooner right now, and the team is in good hands with Fant and others at right tackle. I am choosing to buy the hype that Connor Williams will be ready for the season and including him on the roster. We will learn more next week. Oluwatimi and Harris become a battle for the backup role. Raiqwon O’Neal has a decent shot to make it as a backup guard with both Lucas and one of Harris/Oluwatimi not on the 53. I am high on Jerrell and believe the team is as well. I think he makes the roster. They don’t want to lose him.
Defensive lineSuch a deep room. Macondald has kept as few as four in the past. That would be a deep cut. It would not shock me if they keep six, with Myles Adams sneaking on.
Inside linebackersNot as deep of a room. I assume Baker will be healthy in time for the season. I also think both Rhattigan and O’Connell make it for special team purposes. I would be thrilled if this number went down to four, but Macdonald has kept five both years in Baltimore, so I am going with that for now. This is the most likely place for an addition late via trade.
Edge/Outside linebackersPretty straightforward except for the final spot. Darrell Taylor would seem to be the best guess but Nelson Ceasar has impressed and could snag it from Taylor, who would save the team $3M if he was cut.
CornerbacksMacdonald kept seven at this position last year. That seems like too much, especially with the new kickoff rules that are allowing teams to carry more edge and line players. There could be some surprises here if they can find a trade market for Mike Jackson. I think James and Johnson have had better camps than Pritchett. Lance Boykin could work his way back into this conversation as well.
SafetiesThis should be pretty clear cut.
Special teamsPunting god Michael Dickson reprises his role.
Ask any Seahawks fan that follows the team closely what their biggest question mark was coming into this season, they would have rightfully told you it was the offensive line. Chief among those questions would have been what they were going to do at center. Seattle provided an emphatic answer to that question today when it was announced they had signed one of the best centers in football, Connor Williams, to a 1-year deal, worth as much as $6M.
Williams was the 2nd-rated center last season, according to PFF, behind only Frank Ragnow of the Detroit Lions. Ragnow was a 2nd-team All Pro behind the now-retired Jason Kelce. Perhaps more impressively, Williams had the 2nd-ranked run blocking grade of any linemen, regardless of position. His 90.5 run block grade was even higher than Trent Williams of the 49ers, who is a generational run blocker.
Why, you may ask, is a lineman this talented available for the Seahawks to sign so late in the NFL calendar? Williams torn an ACL in December of last year. It was considered an injury serious enough to almost certainly miss the 2024 year, with some rumors it might force him to medically retire.
The Dolphins moved on by signing Aaron Brewer as a free agent. Other teams moved on, assuming Williams would not be an option. Then, 6-8 weeks ago, agent Drew Rosenhaus started spreading work of a miraculous recovery for Williams that could see him ready to play as soon as week one. Many were skeptical, and no teams even had him in for a visit.
That changed with the Seahawks invited him in on July 24th. It was reported that he passed a physical, and that negotiations had begun on a contract. It took almost two weeks for things to finalize, but Seattle was always the likely destination as Williams wants to play center and the other team who he took a visit with, the Ravens, would have wanted him at guard. They also had half the cap space of Seattle.
Make no mistake, Williams is a risk. He may not be available to start the season. He may not be the same player he was even when he is on the field. That does not change the fact that this is an all-upside gamble.
The worst case scenario is the team has less money and the same choices at center that they did before the signing. This could push Nick Harris or even Olu Oluwatimi off the roster, but they could stick around on the practice squad if need be.
The conservative expectation would be that Williams will not be ready to start the season and will be maybe 75-80% of the player he was before the injury. That would still represent a major upgrade. If he is healthy and playing as he did before, Seattle has their most talented center since Max Unger.
I have talked about “The Curse of Max Unger” before. I was one of the very few who immediately came out against the Unger for Jimmy Graham trade as soon as it happened. They prioritized a finesse skill player over a heart and soul of their offensive line. That decision was one of a series of choices that went against Pete Carroll’s stated philosophies and physical identity of that team.
These have been their starters at center since that deal:
- Patrick Lewis
- Drew Nowak
- Justin Britt
- Ethan Pocic
- Austin Blythe
- Evan Brown
Britt and Pocic has some moments, but it’s largely been a disaster. This signing represents the first real opportunity to end that curse, and it aligns perfectly with the identity that Mike Macdonald, Ryan Grubb, and Scott Huff are trying to establish here.
Consider how many years the Seahawks prioritized positions like safety, wide receiver, inside linebacker, and running back. If it felt like the Seahawks were weak in the trenches, it is because they were.
Look at what they did this offseason:
- Sign Leonard Williams to a big deal
- Drafted Byron Murphy in the first round (first ever time spending a 1st round pick on a DT for John Schneider)
- Drafted Christian Haynes with their second pick (3rd round)
- Signed George Fant as insurance for Abe Lucas
- Signed Jonathan Hankins to stuff the middle and allow Jarran Reed to slide to defensive end
- Asked Dre’Mont Jones to switch from an undersized defensive tackle to a strong edge
- Signed Connor Williams to play center
Few teams in the NFL have made a larger potential leap on both sides of the line of scrimmage than Seattle. It is all unproven until the real games begin, but the prioritization of toughness and physicality is absolutely the right process.
Williams would have been the second best offensive linemen of any position in the NFC West last season. Slide him in the middle of the Seahawks line and both guards get better, Kenneth Walker gets better, and Geno Smith gets better.
It is a bit comical to consider the luck involved here, knowing that the Seahawks lack of attention to this center position is part of what made this scenario even possible. Had they spent a 2nd round pick on a center last year or the year before, Williams does not even make a visit.
More on this as the story unfolds.
Quick camp notesThe player of the day today was cornerback Carlton Johnson, the undrafted free agent out of Fresno State. Johnson is tiny. He weighs only 175 pounds. But he ran an electric 4.28 40-yard dash. Johnson has been gaining confidence in recent days, and it all came together for him in this practice.
He had at least five pass breakups in what was one of the most impressive practices for a corner I have seen at camp. Some of this had the feel of stars aligning for the rookie corner that might not be replicated. Still, he had a fantastic day and made sure everyone knew about.
One of his breakups was a tipped ball that fellow undrafted free agent Dee Williams caught with a full stretch dive, and then hopped up and returned it all the way across the field for a touchdown. Devon Witherspoon was so excited that he sprinted behind him from off the sideline with his helmet off cheering him on.
George Holani continued a strong camp, with good blitz pickup and solid running. He is one to watch in the preseason games.
Geno Smith and DK Metcalf had a number of hookups today. The best was a great route by Metcalf looking like he was running a quick out to the sideline that Riq Woolen bit on, only to have Metcalf turn the route up the sideline and blow past a flat-footed Woolen for what became a 65-yard touchdown.
Smith also hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba multiple times, mostly up the middle of the field. He did have one roughly 10-yard out pattern that JSN caught and cut back inside toward the middle of the field for what would have been a 20+ yard gain.
Kenneth Walker is looking stronger and stronger.
K’Von Wallace continued his vocal ways as he got the defense lined up for a 3rd down from his safety position, “It’s 3rd and 10. Get off the fucking field!”
Amen.
To their credit, they covered up the receivers and forced Smith to dump off to Zach Charbonnet where two defenders were perfectly positioned to bring him down well short of the line to gain.
Woolen has talked about how he has worked on improving his off coverage. That showed up today when he read a pass to JSN perfectly and broke on the ball. He should have had an interception. Those kind of read-and-react plays have not been his strong suit, and represent tangible progress for the type of player he is becoming.
Jake Bobo had a gorgeous deep catch from Smith. Bobo is not a speedster, but he can high point and has great hands. Anyone who remembers the type of player Joe Jurevicius was back in 2005 can appreciate what that can mean for a team.
I will leave it there for now. Back at it tomorrow morning!
Overall, the defense won the day even with the return of Geno Smith. Smith appeared to play his normal amount of reps and was moving around just fine. In fact, he scrambled on one play with Tyrel Dodson in pursuit and I was cringing at the potential collision. Coach Mike Macdonald seemed to see the same thing and talked about wanting his guys to do better there.
The latest problem for the offense is handling the pressure coming from the secondary. Devon Witherspoon continues to time up his blitzes perfectly and almost has a 100% success rate on disrupting plays when he blitzes. He was not alone. Artie Burns got what would have been a sack. Julian Love created some pressure. Rayshawn Jenkins did as well. Even Marquise Blair flashed back there and nearly picked off a pass as he leapt as the QB threw it. He settled for a batted ball incomplete.
These pressures are not generally the fault of the offensive line. Secondary players coming after the QB are generally the responsibility of the tight ends and running backs. There were some situations where a blocker was defeated, like when Patrick O’Connell blew by AJ Barner for a sack. Most of the cases seemed like the man coming was unaccounted for. That would indicate an error by the quarterback and center in calling protections pre-snap.
Given this was happening with all three quarterbacks, it seems Ryan Grubb has some work to do with his players to recognize these better. This is a speciality of Macdonald’s defense, so it is not likely to be something they solve overnight.
Note that I am not calling these blitzers because they are often not a fifth rusher. Technically, a player is only blitzing if they are bringing an extra rusher. Macdonald is diabolical in finding unique ways to create pressure with only four rushers. That is proving true over the last week.
Mike Morris continues pushMorris stacked a great day on top of his great scrimmage on Saturday. His ability to play outside and inside with leverage and length is becoming a problem for the offense. He has shown the ability to split double teams, knock down passes when he can’t get home, and be equally effective on the edge or inside.
Running back competition is wide openMacdonald acknowledged after practice that Kenny McIntosh is in a battle with George Holani for the third running back spot. Holani had maybe the play of the practice when he broke through the line around the 15 yard line and then trucked Artie Burns into the ground as he stepped over him for a touchdown.
The sideline went berserk.
McIntosh had one of his more productive practices, catching a number of passes out of the backfield. He just has not shown anything special. In the absence of better elusiveness, speed, or blitz pickup, McIntosh may find himself on the outside looking in when camp concludes. Preseason games will be crucial for the running back room to sort itself out. Do not count out Kobe Lewis.
Better day for OluOlu Oluwatimi came into camp as the presumptive started at center. That grip has loosened considerably as camp has progressed. He has not shown the strength to hold up in pass protection or create push in the run game. Macdonald has made it clear that he and Nick Harris are battling. That whole competition could be moot if the rumored deal for Connor Williams comes to pass.
Oluwatimi did a nice job today. He handled his duties in team drills well, but his standout moment came when lining up across from Byron Murphy in 1v1 pass rush drills.
Murphy has been a handful for everyone across from him. He tends to bring the power bull rush on the first rep, and this was no exception. Oluwatimi anchored, though, and was able to keep Murphy from collapsing the pocket the way he has against almost all other linemen. It was easily the most impressive rep I have seen of Oluwatimi’s given strength is the chief concern with him.
They lined up a second time and Murphy got off balance by leaning too far forward. Oluwatimi pulled the chair like a basketball post defender and then pushed Murphy face first into the ground. This is the third or fourth time that has happened to Murphy, which indicates an area of development. Regardless, Oluwatimi escaped the two reps victorious.
Daily Murphy MayhemIt wouldn’t be a Seahawks practice without Murphy taking someone’s lunch. Today it was McClendon Curtis. Murphy lined up across from the right tackle during team drills and drove Curtis, a massive man, all the way back into the quarterback for a sack. His ability to create quick pressure on bull rushes is wild.
I know people, even in the Seahawks building, compare him to Grady Jarrett. I don’t think that does him justice. I continue to see more Geno Atkins than Jarrett. Murphy is a brute, who is also agile. Every single person I talk to on the team, whether offense or defense, can’t help but bring up Murphy.
This feels a bit like when Frank Clark came in as a rookie and had veterans like Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett talking him up. Murphy is not a normal rookie. Everybody in there sees it.
Best young defensive core?It is silly to even pose this question at this point in the preseason, but what I am seeing from Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Murphy, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, and Morris have me wondering which teams in the NFL will have a better young core on defense than the Seahawks when this season is over.
All of these guys are 25 or younger. Murphy is 21. You could even throw 26-year-old Love in the mix. But it really comes down to the ceilings for Woolen, Witherspoon and Murphy. The only reason this question even bubbles up in my mind is they all are looking like future All-Pro players. The future may be very soon.
Stone Forsythe and Hall is popcorn-worthyHall and Forsythe got into a tussle on Saturday during 1v1 drills at Lumen Field. Hall took exception to something Forsythe did or said and pushed him the back. After everyone was separated, he launched himself into Forsythe on the next rep and drove the massive man back five feet in a second.
Cue the rematch today. Forsythe drove Hall into the ground on the first rep. You could see that did not sit well with Hall. He again unleashed his power rush, driving Forsythe back, but Forsythe was able to knock Hall down. Hall leapt to his feet and started jawing with Forsythe who gave it right back to him.
This is the point in camp where guys are tired of hitting the same players. The first preseason game and then joint practice with the Titans cannot come soon enough.
In a time where advanced statistics are being used in sports coverage more than ever before, EPA (expected points added) has risen as one of the most commonly used metrics to quantify NFL offenses, and in particular, the quarterbacks leading those offenses. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of expected points, this article is a great introduction: https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/
The main idea: EPA per dropback is a better measure of QB contribution to the offense than more traditional metrics like passer rating or yards per pass.
I’ve been wondering how EPA can be best utilized to predict QB performance in the upcoming season. In the analysis discussed below, I synthesized quarterback EPA data from the last 10 years and examined the correlations that exist between their numbers in a given season and those same numbers in the next season. To reduce as much noise as possible, I only included regular season games and eliminated any QB kneels, QB spikes, or plays with penalties. Quarterbacks were included in this analysis if they played consecutive seasons with the same team and took at least 300 snaps in each of those seasons. Why 300 snaps? Well, quite simply, in any given season there are roughly 30 quarterbacks to play at least 300 snaps, which essentially leaves us with a dataset comprised of only the starters in the NFL.
Now that the scene is set, let us consider 4 different ways of looking at a quarterback’s EPA over the course of a season…
Mean EPA (average EPA): efficiency
Success Rate (% of EPA>0): consistency
Median EPA: efficiency and consistency
Total EPA: availability and contribution
For each of these statistics, I calculated an R-squared value for the quarterbacks’ EPA from one season to the next. R-squared is a measure of correlation; a value of 1.0 represents perfect correlation (e.g., if every NFL QB had the same exact EPA in consecutive years), and a value of 0.0 represents no correlation at all (what you would get if you were looking at completely unrelated variables, like QB EPA in 2016 and QB hair follicle count in 2017). My goal was to find which statistics provided the highest R-squared value from year to year, and therefore which statistics are most predictive of QB success in the upcoming season. When dealing with these types of analyses, it is important to remember that a very good R-squared would be something like 0.50, where half of all the variability in the data can be explained by the statistic in question. EPA traditionally hovers around 0.40, and others types of metrics often fall in the 0.20-0.30 range. Here are the results for the four EPA statistics I examined:
It seems that the median EPA (not the mean, as one might expect) is a little bit more predictive than the others. However, I wasn’t satisfied with this result alone. I also wanted to see how filtering out “garbage time” plays might be able to improve the year-over-year correlation for any of these statistics. To do this, I looked at a “Predictive R-squared” for the correlation between the filtered statistic and the original statistic, as well as a “Stable R-squared” for the correlation between the filtered statistic and itself. Remember, we are comparing QB stats in consecutive years and trying to maximize the correlation to be predictive of any given upcoming season. Here are the R-squared values for different definitions of “garbage time” depending on where you place the win probability cutoff:
As you can see in the most green rows, mean EPA and success rate did not benefit from the garbage time filters. However, there seems to be a slight signal in favor of a 10-90% win probability cutoff imposed on median EPA and a 20-80% win probability cutoff imposed on total EPA. To investigate this further, I looked at how each of these two statistics fair depending on the sample size of snaps that they come from. That is, do the benefits of filtering out garbage time hold up when quarterbacks play more and more snaps in a season? Since we are trying to maximize predictive ability, we want to make sure that our chosen statistics have relatively high R-squared values for different potential groupings of quarterbacks, whether we are looking at everyone who started at least a few games or just those who stayed healthy for a full season. Here are the results of that analysis:
What we see is that raw median EPA and raw total EPA work best with lots and lots of quarterbacks, even if they didn’t play many snaps in a season. Once you start narrowing it down to the starters who played 500+ snaps, their correlations become markedly weaker. However, if you impose the aforementioned win probability cutoffs, those same statistics perform just as well in predicting the raw statistic next year, with the added benefit of being considerably more stable across any snap count from year to year.
The conclusion is this: if you’re going to look at any two basic QB statistics to evaluate their performance in a season and how it projects to their production next year, use median EPA over snaps played within 10-90% win probability and total EPA over snaps played within 20-80% win probability. Looking at these more thoughtfully constructed statistics rather than, say, average EPA across every snap, will help us generate more accurate expectations for QB performance in upcoming seasons.
And that’s exactly what I’ve done for 2023 quarterbacks on the plot below:
A few names stand out right off the bat: Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa had excellent seasons operating Shanahan tree offenses, Jared Goff has been born again with the Lions, and Dak Prescott had a career year throwing to CeeDee Lamb.
You don’t have to look much further to find Geno Smith’s name tucked between Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford, two highly regarded quarterbacks that each had over 4000 yards from scrimmage in 2023. Look some more and you’ll see Geno Smith even had better EPA statistics than other hot QB names Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. It’s even more impressive when you consider the fact that Geno actually ranked higher in total EPA, despite missing two games in the regular season.
If you thought Geno Smith was a tier below any of those guys, think again. He firmly belongs in the list of players who not only can win their city a Super Bowl, but can do so as the focal point of the offense. As far as 2024 goes, I think the data suggests it’s fair to expect a top 10 season from Geno, which would certainly outperform current projections which have the Seahawks near the bottom of the NFC with a losing record. For crying out loud, FanDuel currently lists Geno Smith at the same odds for Offensive Player of the Year as Devin Singletary, Evan Engram, and Jerry Jeudy. The Seahawks QB is still being slept on, and I for one can’t wait to see him prove the doubters wrong for a third straight year.
Mike Macdonald searched for the right words when asked about the performance of his backup quarterback, Sam Howell, after the Seahawks Football Fest scrimmage at Lumen Field. This was the first time Macdonald had walked into the stadium with players and fans as the coach of the Seahawks. Stepping to the podium after practice seemed to hold some significance to him as well. Having to find constructive words to answer a question about a player not performing was as good of a test as anything else that had transpired during the day.
Macdonald deftly deflected away from the actual performance on the field and spoke instead about Howell’s competitive nature and that these types of less-than-full-contact environments do not showcase his best traits. There could definitely be some truth to that, as I have guessed about on this blog the last couple of weeks. It is also undeniably true that Howell had precious little be proud about in this mock game.
He missed his first five passes before finally completing a ball to Cody White. I only saw him complete five passes on the day. Four of those were for 6 yards or less. He would have been sacked at least twice and possibly as many as four times. He scrambled a lot, and that is the part you cannot really judge in this light contact environment. Still, it was far from a functional offense with Howell at the helm.
Macdonald could not help but have a Freudian slip where he mentioned looking forward to having Geno Smith back while answering about Howell. Aren’t we all, Coach.
Pass rush comes aliveThe story of the afternoon was the effectiveness of the pass rush, especially on the edges. Interior rushers have had a more notable camp than edge rushers so far due, in part, to the solid play from the Seahawks offensive tackles. That changed in this practice.
Devin Witherspoon blitzed on the first play and batted down Howell’s pass. Mike Morris collapsed the right side of the line against McClendon Curtis and made it impossible for Howell to step into his next throw, almost batting it down. Leonard Williams got after Curtis on the 3rd down snap and batted down the pass. Three different players. Three straight pressures to start team drills.
It was more than just Curtis being challenged.
Boye Mafe beat George Fant for what would have been a sack. Mafe did it again later. There were multiple blitzes from different players that hurried Howell and led to scrambles or holding calls or incompletions.
Morris might have been the highlight player given he was able to impact the game outside and inside, which Macdonald spoke about afterwards. The second year lineman is coming on strong.
Offensive line competition is onMacdonald made a statement that felt like the news of the day when he said they don’t believe they have found their best five linemen yet, and he does not think they are close to declaring starters. That was a little surprising given how little rotation we have seen with the starting five throughout camp.
His comments are open to interpretation, but I do not believe he is referring to Charles Cross or Fant, and I think Laken Tomlinson is unlikely as well. That leaves center and right guard. While I continue to believe center is a weak spot, my read was Macdonald is referring to the right guard spot.
Anthony Bradford has been the starter so far, but Christian Haynes is making a push. Bradford continues to be inconsistent as a pass protector. Haynes is not perfect, but he seems less prone to surrendering quick pressure and is generally more consistent snap-to-snap.
There is another wild possibility that I plan to ask about next week: could the team explore moving Haynes to center?
The rookie took snaps at center during the Senior Bowl. He would be an immediate upgrade there, and then allow the team to choose between Curtis and Bradford at right guard. My best five from what I have witnessed would have Curtis at right guard and Haynes at center.
That could be a lot to ask of the rookie, but it also may be the best chance to field an average or better offensive line.
Tyrice Knight earns praiseRookie linebacker Tyrice Knight made an impression during the scrimmage when the team allowed live contact on the final series with mostly third string guys in there. Rookie George Holani got the handoff and cut to the left side of the line, hoping to find space. Instead, he found Knight there to knock him on his tail with a good lick after having naturally flowed from his middle linebacker spot to meet the ball carrier.
I asked Macdonald about Knight after the practice and he gave what is high praise from any football coach, “When you’re playing real football, he comes alive.” Knight is getting extra reps as Jerome Baker has missed time with a hamstring injury. He is taking advantage.
It would not be surprising if Knight has a standout preseason. He is looking like the third back inside linebacker on this team already.
Geno participates in his own wayThe crowd gave Geno Smith a nice ovation as he entered the stadium, and chanted, “Geno! Geno! Geno!” as he exited. In between, Smith found ways to get mental reps.
He stood about 15-20 yards behind the quarterback for some series with a headset on. There were multiple moments where he gestured to tell a player to motion across the formation. The players could not see or hear him, but most of the time the player would eventually make the move Smith had indicated was the right check.
Macdonald said there was another test planned for Smith after the practice but that he expected him to be back on the practice field this week.
Dee Williams having a sneaky campUndrafted free agent Dee Williams was signed largely due to his return abilities, and was generally regarded as a non-starter as a receiver. The team seemed to come to the same conclusion early and camp and moved him to cornerback.
Williams has done plenty of work with the special teams unit as a returner, indicating the team still likes what he offers there. More of note has been some excellent coverage at corner.
Williams has been in tight coverage during many of the team drills. It took me a few days before I recognized who he was, but he kept catching my eye.
The possibly crazy question to ask is whether he has shown enough as a corner that the team would consider moving on from a veteran like Mike Jackson in order to have his return talents on the roster. Alternatively, he could push rookie D.J. James off the roster, but that seems less likely. The team could keep seven corners, but that would cause them to keep one fewer edge or inside linebacker.
The question is crazy for the time being, but if Williams has a standout preseason, remember where you heard it first.
The Seahawks were back in pads today after a t-shirt and shorts walk through yesterday. At least, most of the team was in pads. Geno Smith was a notable absence, leaving Sam Howell and PJ Walker to take all the snaps at quarterback on a hot and windy day. Coach Mike Macdonald shared afterward that Smith will be undergoing some imaging to assess the injury. Bob Condotta reported this morning that the injury appears to be a hip and knee issue.
There was a fair amount of “sky is falling” reactions online when the news broke. My current perspective is this is not likely to be a serious injury. The team is probably being cautious and sees no reason to push it this early in camp. Of course, it is never a good thing when they even deem it worthy of imaging and you never know what might show up. My sense is Macdonald and the team are not expecting anything serious to come back.
The silver lining here was that Sam Howell had a chance to take all the reps with the starters. There are some who have surmised that his struggles in camp have been due, in part, to him playing with the backups. While I disagree, there is no doubt that throwing to D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a different experience than throwing to Easop Winston and Cody White.
Howell has improved his play the last few days once pads came on. I think it is less about the pads and more about a combination of gaining confidence in the Ryan Grubb offense and Grubb learning that Howell seems to do better when he is on the move out of the pocket.
Howell is a shorter quarterback who has some of the same tendencies as Russell Wilson when in the pocket. He can hold onto the ball for far too long while waiting for longer developing plays that he can see more easily down the field. His accuracy and decisiveness improve when rolling out.
There were some nice throws today. Howell hit JSN a number of times over the middle, which is increasingly becoming his territory. He also connected with Metcalf on a timing out route and Jake Bobo on a beauty of a back shoulder throw that had Devin Witherspoon hopping mad that the ref ruled Bobo inbounds. It was a good call.
Howell’s time to throw has reduced a ton. He was getting the ball out far more quickly today, which appears to be a hallmark of the Grubb system. There were still some of those moments of holding the ball way too long, but they were more the exception than the rule.
He also remained inaccurate at times, and had a truly awful forced throw to a receiver who was blanketed by Tre Brown. Brown easily picked it off and took it back for a touchdown. Howell has to get those throws out of his game. Getting more reps and time with Grubb could wind up being beneficial to his learning curve and development.
Good day for Laviska Shenault Jr The signing of Laviska Shenault Jr was one of the more intriguing moves of the offseason. Shenault is a former 2nd round pick who has flashed as a yards after catch receiver as well as a returner. He has some of the same skills as Cordarrelle Patterson of the Atlanta Falcons.
He has not been a major factor to this point of camp, but saw a lot of action today. He was used on jet sweeps as a runner and a receiver in quick screens. He also was targeted further downfield. Arguably the best throw of the day was Walker rifling it into Shenault 20 yards downfield for what looked like would have been a touchdown with him running after the catch.
Shenault gives the Seahawks a weapon they simply have not had previously. He is physical and shifty. There is a big difference when someone like him is catching a screen versus JSN.
Watch out for Easop Winston JrAnother guy who is climbing up the ranks on the roster is Easop Winston Jr. Winston had time with the team last year, and has earned the reputation of having the best hands on the team. He is also an excellent route runner.
Howell had started to develop chemistry with Winston in the second unit. Walker targeted him quite a bit today. Winston snatched one away from Dee Williams, who has switched to corner, early. He caught a nice touchdown during red zone drills later.
I would have given Winston a near zero chance of making the 53-man roster when camp started. He has a unique fit at punt returner given his plus hands and quality movement skills. It is still an uphill battle given the depth of that position, but the chance is no longer zero.
Spoon unleashes Witherspoon was brought on blitzes multiple times, and would have probably had a sack on each. His timing and disguise remains excellent. He has been playing almost exclusively outside recently with Artie Burns in nickel, which creates some different spacing and rotations when being brought on a blitz.
Tre Brown may have more competition for starting reps than expected if the team starts to prefer Witherspoon playing outside.
Mystery situationThe mystery situation for today was:
- 4th quarter
- 9 seconds to go
- Offense needs a FG to win
- Ball at their own 40-yard line
- Each side has 1 timeout remaining
Howell held the ball a bit long, but did complete to JSN over the middle for an 15-yard gain. There were only 3 seconds left. The offense had to try a 62-yard field goal for the win.
Jason Myers had a rough practice a couple days ago, missing three straight. He stepped into this kick and snuck it over the upright by 2-3 yards. It was impressive in any conditions, but even more notable with the wind.
Quick hitter notes* Kenneth Walker has been asked to work on his blitz pickup so he could play more on 3rd downs. He got a lot of chances today in those situations and acquitted himself well. He was used to catch some swing passes, but more importantly, had an absolutely beautiful blitz pickup that allowed Walker to make a throw to Cody White for the first down. His development as a pass protector could be big for this offense. * Metcalf had another one-handed catch for a touchdown, and then followed it up with a contested catch for a touchdown. There were a couple of other chances for highlight catches that he could not quite hold onto. * Christian Haynes was back on the right side at guard, and had a good exchange with Byron Murphy during 1v1 pass rush drills. Murphy drove him back quickly and dominantly on the first rep. Haynes came back on the second rep and blocked Murphy into the ground. These two are making each other better every day. * Matt Gotel is taking advantage of Cameron Young’s absence has the attention of Macdonald. Gotel had a nice tackle for loss after blowing up a play. * Tyrel Dodson came flying from the middle of the field to pop Shenault on one end around in red zone drills. He did not deliver a full hit, but it was a flash play for his range and ferocity. I think Seahawks fans are going to like this guy. * Jerome Baker is known as an excellent blitzer from the linebacker spot and has been going against Walker often during blitz pickup 1v1 drills. Baker has won his fair share, but Walker has steadily improved at parrying his attacks. * Mike Jerrell had the block of the day as he violently whipped Sunny Anderson to the ground in 1v1 pass rush drills. This guy continues to gain ground and confidence. * Leonard Williams flashed early in practice, swallowing up a few different run plays. * Mike Morris had a nice split of a double team for what would have been a sack * Uchenna Nwosu blew by Anthony Bradford on one play for a sack
The offense and defense were tied (using whatever scoring system the coaches rely on). Macdonald had them line up for a 2-point conversion attempt to determine which side of the ball won for the day. The pass out wide fell incomplete with Brown in coverage. Defense wins.
Odd experience of the dayAs I was walking down the sideline to get a better view of team drills, I heard someone behind me yell, “Hey! How about a high five?!” I turned to the fence where the fans were lined up, “You mean me?” They nodded. Awkwardly, I walked over and gave the guy a high five. Then five other people wanted high fives. That has to be the most disappointing high five of their lives.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Ep 325: Special Guest Alyssa Charlston
There was not a lot of news to be found in the Seahawks 7th day of training camp that was closed to the public. Mike Macdonald chose to give his players a day of t-shirts and shorts as they walked through a number of drills and situations.
The reasons for Macdonald’s decision are purely speculation at this point given the coach did speak after practice. Some possibilities include:
- Giving the player’s bodies a break after two padded practices
- This is possible but seems a little unlikely given players regularly do 3+ padded practices consecutively in past training camps
- Wanting to spend more time on teaching
- This is my best guess. Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson missed all of OTAs and minicamp. There are other guys who were out as well. This could help them catch up. Macdonald has also inferred that the team is not quite where he wants in terms of execution, and this could be the method of choice for helping guys pick up details he feels are missing.
I spoke with Dave Wyman on the sideline and he agreed that walk-throughs can be a helpful tool for having concepts sink in a bit more.
Golfers commonly work on slow-motion swing practice due to the transferability to muscle memory. There were some moments with Aden Durde working with Boye Mafe and Uchenna Nwosu that reminded me of that concept.
They were practicing the exact number of steps to close the gap with the blocker and then initiate a change of direction. It was just the three of them for maybe 15 minutes working on various techniques. It was not all one-sided. Nwosu was explaining to Durde how he approached those situations and Durde listened and nodded.
Small little moment before practice that made me smileDee Williams, the undrafted free agent wide receiver who has been moved to defensive back, was playing catch with Easop Winston Jr. and Dareke Young. Winston, who is known for having one of the best sets of hands on the team wound up throwing with Jarran Reed for a bit. They started what seemed to be a version of H-O-R-S-E where Winston would make a catch in a certain way and then Reed would have to replicate it.
Reed was holding his own until Winston caught one across his body backhanded with just one hand. Reed’s eyes widened, “Alright! Alright!” Winston threw the ball to Reed who attempted the impressive catch only to have it bounce off his hand.
Winston is a name to remember as he is likely in competition for punt returner, and has become Sam Howell’s favorite target in recent days. He has the respect of his teammates, and just might be a surprise on the 53-man-roster.
Media shows PNW rootsI got a kick out of a large contingent of the media in attendance huddled in a patch of grass that could not have measured more than 10 square feet. What drew them to these tight quarters? It was the only place anywhere on the field that had some shade.
Sun’s out? PNW folks look for shade. Made me chuckle.
Macdonald involvedLast thing on practice was that Macdonald was very involved in calling out situations and asking guys to run and re-run plays. He would say things like, “Let’s do it again with tighter splits.” His attention to detail and high bar remains encouraging.
Byron Murphy is a player I have wanted on the Seahawks for a very long time. I lost my mind when they selected him. Every report from OTA and minicamp, as well as my interview with him, only increased my anticipation and excitement about what he could bring to the team. Training camp started and if I’m being honest, Murphy disappointed. He was not awful or even bad. His traits simply were not flashing. He looked like a quality player instead of a special player. The Seahawks desperately need guys to go beyond good, and become beasts that rank at the best or near the best at their positions.
Murphy started to gain some momentum over the next few practices. Still, these were just more good moments. Today, he flashed great. Leonard Williams took a veteran day off which allowed Murphy to get a lot more snaps. His overall day was good, but where he flashed was in 1v1 pass rush drills.
If you remember from yesterday’s report, he had a tough time with Anthony Bradford. The two rematched today and Murphy beat Bradford with an inside move on the first rep. He then beat him again on the second rep badly enough that Bradford had to hold. That was the appetizer. Murphy matched up with backup center Nick Harris a few reps later. I wish you all could have seen Murphy knock Harris back so hard and so fast that he landed squarely on his tail. Onlookers gasped.
It was about as dominant of a display of power as you will see in these types of drills. Murphy was not done. The two reset for the next rep. Harris is a vet, and was ready for Murphy’s power this time. He anchored himself at the snap and braced for the rush. He tried to lunge forward a bit to initiate contact with Murphy. The problem was Murphy was one step ahead of him. He took one step forward to fake the bull rush, and then stepped laterally in a flash, leaving Harris blocking air, and Murphy racing by him for a would-be sack.
In two plays, Murphy showed his elite power and elite quickness. Those were the traits I have been waiting for. Those are the traits that can make him a nightmare for opponents. He is nowhere near showcasing them each play, but I have learned over the years that a player’s ceiling is set by what they show you on the field during camp. Murphy validated his ceiling is sky high today.
Haynes joins the partyChristian Haynes has also had a somewhat disappointing start to camp. He has been the backup right guard behind Bradford. There have not been egregious errors. There simply have not been many flash moments to set that higher ceiling. He has looked like a rookie who is likely to backup for a while.
Laken Tomlinson took a vet day off today. The expectation would be that Raiqwon O’Neal would move from backup to starter and Sataoa Laumea would move up a spot to backup left guard. That did not happen. Instead, Haynes played his first snaps at left guard, and he played them with the starters. O’Neal moved to backup right guard for the day.
This was noteworthy for a few reasons. Haynes played thousands of snaps in college, and had never played a single one as a left guard. Draft analysts talked about him as exclusively a right guard. Chalk up another “L” for draft analysts.
Haynes got a ton of reps and seemed to do pretty well. There were a few matchups with Murphy. The first one saw Murphy drive him backwards a few yards. The very next play, Haynes turned Murphy inside and cleared the way for a nice run.
Haynes had his best day in 1v1s as well. He manhandled Myles Adams twice in a row. Adams is catlike in his quickness and is a tough matchup in that drill.
Haynes did get bullied by Uchenna Nwosu later in the drill. It was not the flashy day that Murphy had, but it was a solid step forward, and arguably his best day so far.
It is also noteworthy that the coaches had seen enough from him to this point that they wanted him out there with the first string. Generally, coaches are trying to figure out who the best five guys are. This felt like them saying they think Haynes is in that conversation, even if not right away.
Right tackle depth appears significantly improvedLast season was a nightmare at right tackle for Seattle. Abe Lucas missing time shined a light on how bad the depth was behind him. Early signs are that is not the case this season. George Fant has been playing with the starters and doing a fine job.
McClendon Curtis has been impressive behind him, and rookie Mike Jerrell was been a standout through two days of padded practice. You are talking about being four deep when Lucas returns. The group looks promising enough that they really do not need to rush Lucas back.
Jason Myers doing his thingThe team worked on field goals today. Myers, who has been on target for most of camp, hit a 55 yard field goal on one series. He then missed three straight. Two were roughly 40-45 yards and one was around 30-35 yards. The $5.5 million dollar man remains inconsistent.
New twists to practiceMacdonald introduced a bunch of new concepts to practice today. They has the “mystery scenario” where Leslie Frazier gives a situation to the PA guy who reads it out over the sound system. Macdonald, Aden Durde, and Ryan Grubb do not know what’s coming. They then get the scenario and need to come up with play calls for the situation.
The situation today was:
- 12 seconds left in the game
- Offense needs a touchdown to win
- Ball at the 15-yard line
The first play saw Artie Burns break up a pass for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The next play saw Riq Woolen blanket D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith had to throw the ball away. On 3rd down, Smith lofted a pass to the corner of the endzone that Tyler Lockett appeared well positioned to catch, but it was batted away by Woolen.
Another new twist was a variation of 1v1s. Macdonald had the entire team watching as different versions of 1v1s unfolded in front of them. The first one had receiver Cody White getting the better of Lance Boykin deep. The second was Haynes facing off against Murphy trying to get to Smith. Haynes won the matchup. Next up was Jerrell, who did so well his offensive teammates erupted. Laumea won his matchup with Devere Levelston. George Holani held up in blitz protection against Tyrice Knight. Finally, Dee Williams got by Mike Jackson as a punt gunner.
It was a smart way to utilize the added pressure of everyone watching to increase focus and competition and better replicate game like intensity.
Sam Howell has settled downSam Howell had a very very very rough start to camp. He appears to have found his footing. There were no awful plays today, and there were a fair share of good ones. One play early in practice during team drills had him perfectly execute a play-action off a bootleg where he hit a wide open Dareke Young in stride.
Grubb was so excited the play worked exactly as he envisioned that he took a step forward and pumped his fist. This guy is competing.
Howell did better with hot reads and getting rid of the ball more quickly. He utilized Laviska Shenault and Cody White and Young a few different times.
Geno and DK back to their old tricksThe defense clearly won yesterday. They were good again today, but the offense traded blows with them in a way they just did not yesterday. Smith and Metcalf were at the center of it.
Metcalf caught another gorgeous back shoulder throw from Smith with Devon Witherspoon all over him.
Tyrel Dodson got immediate pressure on a blitz, and Smith deftly delivered the ball to Metcalf in the blink of an eye for a nice gain.
But the play of the day was a throw Smith lofted to the back corner of the endzone with Witherspoon in tight coverage that saw Metcalf extend his right hand behind him and haul in the pass with one hand for a touchdown.
Players, fans, and media were all buzzing. This was the type of catch we have wanted to see from Metcalf. This is the type of catch he is making so far this camp. He looks like a guy capable of breaking every Seahawks single season receiving record this year.
Keep in mind, the Seahawks coverage guys are having an excellent camp. A lot of these catches have come with tight coverage. What Metcalf does against lesser competition could have folks asking for a mercy rule.
Woolen and Spoon are playing greatIt might be hard to understand how Metcalf can be having such a great camp and Woolen and Witherspoon are doing the same. Woolen won the matchup with Metcalf most of the day in the first padded practice. Today, he probably won 50% of them. If you look at his reps against all receivers today, he was winning far more.
Macdonald took a long pause when asked about Woolen after practice today because he was hesitant to hype him up too much. It is clear they are excited by what they are seeing, and the back-and-forth between Woolen and Metcalf is making both players better.
Spoon is having fewer pass breakups, but his coverage is impeccable. He got more time playing outside corner today and was excellent. They are going to use him everywhere, including both right and left corner. Macdonald confirmed that today, which indicates Woolen will travel with the opponents best receiver on some weeks.
The build up to the NFL season is gradual. Each step brings you closer to the real game. A meaningful moment occurs when the players don their pads for the first time. You get to see practice reps that are a better approximation of what a game will look like. Players who rise on these days can earn the respect of their coaches and teammates. Players who fall can tumble down the depth chart, and sometimes, off the roster. Today with that day at the VMAC. There was plenty to cover. Let’s get to it.
The stars were out, and so was the rainI was about to walk into the lobby of the VMAC when I noticed a couple people coming up behind me. I held the door for them, and recognized a familiar face. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network strolled by me and offered a, “thank you,” for my courtesy. As he checked in at the desk, I walked into the mostly empty media room and saw Albert Breer of The MMQB sitting at the table in front of me. To my right, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.
I introduced myself to Breer and asked if he a second to do a quick interview before practice. He was gracious and agreed to step outside for a chat you can watch here. As we walked back inside, Robert Mays of The Athletic had arrived and sitting to my left. Mays was a terrific guest on HB Mornings prior to the draft, so it was nice to shake his hand in person and congratulate him on the terrific Sean McVay interview he had recently posted.
The national firepower in the room was substantial, and you could feel the Seahawks staff wanting to put their best foot forward.
As a newbie among the press, I was pleasantly surprised by how humble and friendly all the guys were. Each of them were careful to ask if they were sitting in a local reporters seat in the media room. There was no ego or manspreading going on. It is nice to see good people being successful.
The bummer was that they were all here for what might be the only rainy day of the entire camp. Brace for the predictable jokes about Seattle weather when you read or watch their reports.
Mays looked like he was having a good sit-down with Mike Macdonald, while I think Breer was having a long talk with Ryan Grubb (memory might be off on who was talking to Grubb). I overheard Mays mention Sean McVay and saw a wide smile on Macdonald’s face. Whatever comes out of that should be fun.
Ronnie Lott was also in the house, among the family and friends section as his daughter is married to Leonard Williams.
Defense wins the dayIt was a matter of time before Macdonald got the upper hand on Grubb and the offense. The defense felt significantly more enthusiastic about putting pads on than the offense, and that carried into team sessions.
Gone were the quick and accurate passes from Geno Smith. In their place, blanketed coverage forced him to hold onto the ball for extended periods of time and then ultimately improvise or scramble. He fired an early pass over the middle to D.K. Metcalf on a crossing route that Riq Woolen batted down. That would become one of the stories of the day.
Woolen had his best day of camp. He blanketed Metcalf, allowing precious few completions. The frustration for Metcalf eventually boiled over and he grabbed Woolen by the facemask as they jawed back and forth. It is easy to forget with all the talk about Woolen not being physical enough last year that he is one of the few players who can look Metcalf directly in the eye. His added weight this offseason made the light tussle more even than expected.
Woolen did more than cover well. He also showed solid run support, including a pad-popping stuff of a toss sweep. Woolen wasn’t the only suspect run defender who made a noteworthy play in run support. Darrell Taylor slid off his blocker into the hole and stopped the ball carrier for no gain.
Running up the middle was messy. The offense had some luck, but generally did better to the outside. Kobe Lewis has caught my eye with his muscular build and quick burst. He may have the tools to challenge guys like Kenny Macintosh (who has done nothing of note so far) and George Holani for the 3rd running back spot.
There were highlights galore for the defense.
Uchenna Nwosu shoulder-checked Jaxon Smith-Njigba nearly five feet toward the sideline in a play that looked like the classic wake-up call that this practice was going to be different.
Julian Love nabbed his second interception by showcasing the cagey defense the team wanted to secure for another three years. Metcalf was running an intermediate post from left-to-right. He made his break about 15 yards downfield and was running away from his defender into an open window. Smith saw it and threw a ball exactly where Metcalf was going to be. What he did not see was Love hiding out closer to the line of scrimmage and backpedaling right to where Smith was going to deliver the ball.
Love set the trap beautifully. He baited Smith into the throw and was rewarded with a relatively easy interception.
Tyrel Dodson had a great read on an early run play, flowing right into the hole and meeting the ball carrier in the backfield. He let out a scream and pounded his chest.
Devin Witherspoon was in tight coverage all day and was sure to let the offense know every single time something went the defense’s way. He was excitedly recounting a series with his starting teammates after they came off the field, “They can’t run that RPO on us!”
K’Von Wallace was as loud as ever. He had a blitz that would have been a sack of QB contact was allowed. His coverage was good as well.
Derick Hall had a nice bull rush against Charles Cross that pushed him into his quarterback.
It was not a dominant performance by the defense, but they easily won 70% of the reps against the starting offense. Tyler Lockett acknowledge as much in his press conference after practice.
These guys need to gain confidence in each other, themselves, and these new coaches. As fun as it was to see Smith and Metcalf and JSN and Grubb dominate the first few days, this team won’t go anywhere interesting if the defense does not gain the swagger needed to be a positive factor on game days.
1v1sMy favorite part of padded practices are the 1v1 pass rush drills. The big boys are the main event, but the undercard is the linebackers going against the running backs in blitz pickup 1v1s.
Grubb has said that running backs coach Kennedy Polamalu has been putting in extra work with Kenneth Walker on his pass protection so Walker can play more on 3rd downs and be an option as a weapon in those situations. Walker seemed to acquit himself well in the drill, and Polamalu was quick to cheer him on after each rep.
The big fellas did not disappoint. One of the first reps saw Anthony Bradford going against Byron Murphy. Murphy got off the snap and appeared to be trying to spin when Bradford grabbed him by the collar and threw him, back-first, to the ground. Everyone watching let out a, “ewwww.” People who were not watching glanced over to see what had made that loud thud.
Murphy was not hurt. Those of us watching agreed we had never seen anything like that ever happen in a 1v1 drill before. Bradford seemed to be making a point to the rookie. They would square off later and Bradford tried to throw Murphy to the ground again. Murphy held his own that time, but Bradford was the victor on this day.
The offensive line seemed to win the majority of the reps. Cross drew “oohs” when he went up against Nwosu. Cross just moves differently than the other linemen. His feet are so much quicker and his mirroring so much more fluid. He bottled up Nwosu on multiple snaps.
Mike Jerrell, the rookie 6th round pick from Findlay, had a really nice performance. He parried the rush moves of multiple players, finishing with a perfect rep against Boye Mafe. This was the type of flash that will get coaches attention. There were more than a few, “Atta boy, Mike!” shouts.
McClendon Curtis was more mixed but was mostly good. He stoned Taylor on one snap, only to have Taylor execute a beautiful spin back inside on the next snap for what would have been a sack.
Christian Haynes did fine. He was not beaten badly on any reps. He had one snap where he finished Myles Adams with the mean streak he was known for in college, which was nice to see. He did not flash as much as I had hoped with the pads on today. He does not appear to be a true candidate for the starting spot at right guard to this point. It is still, though, very early.
Hall absolutely mauled Stone Forsythe on one bull rush, sending Forsythe tumbling back at almost a sprinter’s speed.
Laken Tomlinson did fine. He had some good reps versus Leonard Williams and some less good reps.
Play of the daySam Howell had a better day today. The second string offense may have outperformed the first string for the first time. The highlight of the day came when he lofted a gorgeous pass down the left sideline to a streaking Jake Bobo who fully extended to dive and grab the ball before landing in the endzone for a touchdown. Easily one of the best catches I have seen in a camp practice over the years.
The wind made an appearance on Lake Washington for the first time, and brought with it a change of fortunes for the Seahawks defense. It was clear that Mike Macdonald did not appreciate the implication yesterday that the offense was outperforming the defense, and he had his defenders ready to even the score on day three of training camp.
Gone was the rhythmic drumbeat of snap, dropback, throw, completion for Geno Smith and the starters. In its place was something more discordant and off-beat like jazz. The defense appeared to bring much more in the way of pressure packages, often crowding the line prior to the snap.
Smith had far less time to get rid of the ball, and coverage was far stickier, leaving him without the pressure relief check-downs he utilized so effectively in the first two days.
This was not a dominant performance by the defense. Smith and the starters still made a number of plays, but the defense won the day.
One perfect example of a training camp mirage was when Smith hit DK for what appeared to be a beautiful 60 yard deep ball over the head of Tre Brown. In reality, there was an all-out blitz that looked like it would have resulted in a sack during a game.
On another play, Smith threw to what he expected to be an open Kenneth Walker along the sideline, only to have Patrick O’Connell catch the ball simultaneously with his running back. Walker would eventually win the tug-of-war for a hard-earned completion. The play was emblematic of the extra effort the offense had to put in to get the returns they had been enjoying previously.
A number of defenders had nice daysMike Morris is 6’6″ tall, with 33 1/2″ arms. His length has been making life difficult on the shorter Sam Howell during camp. He batted down what must have been his third pass so far in this one. He also created some pressure. I continue to see a guy who can make an impact as a rotational defensive linemen this year.
Darrell Taylor had his best day. He probably would have had a couple of sacks in a real game, and paired with Jarran Reed to get to the quarterback at one point.
Uchenna Nwosu stood out. He was in the backfield in both pass and run situations. On one run play, he beat right tackle McClendon Curtis to be in position to make a tackle for loss had tackling been allowed.
It took a few days, but Byron Murphy earns a shout after what was easily his most impactful performance. Murphy would have had at least one, and possibly two, sacks in a normal game. He won with quickness at times. He won with power on other. His play against the run was also notable. He seemed to read some of the run plays and beat his blocker to the hole. He appeared to life Sataoa Laumea off the ground on one bull rush. The efficacy of these flashes will be far greater once the pads come on in the next few practices.
Brown nearly had an interception during red zone drills after blanketing D.K. Metcalf. K’Von Wallace had a great breakup on a pass to Brady Russell during the same drill.
Artie Burns has been solid so far, and had another nice day with some pass breakups. He has opened a sizable gap between him and the rookie corners.
Nobody was able to stop “Toe Tap” Tyler Lockett on one highlight reel catch in the endzone where it was hard to say whether the catch or the footwork were more impressive. Vintage Lockett.
Quick hitter notes* It was a tough day for rookie corner Nehemiah Pritchett who gave up consecutive touchdowns to Metcalf during the red zone drills. Welcome to the NFL, rook. * Noah Fant made what has been his customary few well-times catches with room to run in front of him * Hayden Hatten had a few catches and might be getting more hype if the Seahawks receiver room wasn’t so deep * Despite the mention of more pressure being applied, the offensive line seemed to hold up reasonably well considering the amount and variety of pressures the defense was bringing today. A number of the sacks were due to the ball coming out later. * Outside linebacker Joshua Onujiogu flashed multiple times. He missed last season with an injury, and is not a name anyone will be talking about. I guarantee the coaches liked what he put on tape today.
Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, and Ryan Grubb have come to training camp on a mission. Julian Love acknowledged after practice that Grubb “has them dialed in.” I mentioned yesterday that it was impressive to see a new NFL coordinator come in and not have any sloppiness. Only one false start. Almost zero communication issues. Just the simple operation of snapping the ball and getting the proper play called and run is often a struggle early on. Today, the starters on offense made that seem too low a bar.
Smith is playing as well as any Seahawks quarterback I have watched in training camp. Granted, Mike Macdonald indicated things are “pretty vanilla” so far, but I think that undersells what they are doing. It is not like the offense is winning every time when Sam Howell and PJ Walker are out there. More on that later, but if it was simply a matter of things being easy for the offense, you would think that would carry through every group out there.
Smith and Metcalf are cooking. I cannot remember a single incompletion between that duo through two days. And the degree of difficulty for some of these completions is incredibly high. Early on, Smith his Metcalf along the deep left sideline for a gorgeous back-shoulder throw that Metcalf adjusted for perfectly. It was an impossible pass to cover for Riq Woolen, who was blanketing Metcalf up the sideline.
Metcalf would later make a one-handed grab going low to the ground before stepping out of bounds. He had multiple contested catches on various sides and depths of the field. This is a player who has had trouble being an efficient receiver, with catch rates in the 50-55% range. He looks like an absolute problem in this offense and with his chemistry with Smith. If you have been hoping to see Metcalf reach his seemingly limitless physical potential, early indications are very good.
It has not just been Metcalf. Smith has rarely thrown incompletions. I am not logging stats, but I would be shocked if his completion rate was under 80% through two days. It might be closer to 90%. The ball just is not hitting the ground.
A lot of that credit goes to Smith, who is making the right pre-snap read, delivering the ball on time and with accuracy, and making it impossible for the defense to focus on any one type of play or part of the field.
Grubb deserves a ton of praise, though, as well. He is using the headsets just like real games to call in plays, and he is giving the defense fits. One of the biggest “hallelujah” differences I have noticed so far has been the constant inclusion of quick pass check-downs for the quarterback should the primary read be covered or there is a chance for an easy few yards.
This looks like an offense that will happily take profits underneath, without sacrificing explosiveness downfield. Smith hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba multiple times, often in the middle of the field. Noah Fant made more catches. The running backs are involved. Tyler Lockett made his catches. Jake Bobo made some plays. Even Pharaoh Brown caught a couple deep down the seam.
If I had to sum up this offensive approach from Grubb so far in one word, it would be, “answers.” Too often under Shane Waldron, the Seahawks offense ran into defenses that flummoxed them. If their pre-game plan did not work, they were kind of stuck. Grubb’s offense looks far more equipped to be the one causing the defense to be scratching their heads.
The easy retort would be that this sure sounds like the defense is still terrible. As well as the starting offense has played, it has not felt like the defense was playing poorly. These are not busted coverages. There were tipped passes, and even an interception from Julian Love on a beautiful read. Defenders are often in either tight coverage or right there to make the tackle after the catch.
You have seen “maestro” offenses that are so tough to stop that great defenses struggle to get them off the field. Without saying this offense is at that level, the vibe is similar to those types of teams.
It is two days. It is without pads. There is almost nothing to learn about the running game. There are tons of caveats. That should not diminish the quality two days the starting offense stacked together.
News is not as good about HowellYou never want to overreact to a couple of early practices. That said, Sam Howell has struggled mightily. He was consistently late in delivering throws again, and forced multiple passes to well-covered receivers. It was bad enough that he appeared to be losing some confidence as the day went on. He did redeem himself with a great throw to Laviska Shenault Jr. for a late touchdown, but it has been bad enough that there are already questions about whether he is an upgrade over Drew Lock.
My current gut feeling is that Howell is a backyard baller, who will do better creating off-script plays in games than he does in practice. This guy has started 18 games in the NFL and has put some excellent throws on film. He has talent. His still just 23-years-old.
I found myself wondering just how bad the coaching was in Washington to have him look this unpolished. Instead of a guy who is going to push Smith for the starting spot, I now have him slotted as a developmental project who will hopefully learn under Grubb and Smith.
Derick Hall has my attentionAnyone who has read this blog or watched my shows knows I have not been a big Derick Hall believer. He has caught my eye through the first two practices.
Not only does he have ridiculous legs, but he appeared to be turning the corner in edge-rushing drills more sharply than even Boye Mafe. He has always had power. He appears to have a bit more bend and quickness this year. That has translated into some nice pressures during team drills. He and Leonard Williams combined on a nice would-be sack on a twist on one play. I hope to speak with him and learn more about his journey as he heads into year two. Be sure to check out the YouTube channel for all the interviews and extra content.
Teaching teamworkI spent a fair amount of time watching Aden Durde and the defensive coaches work with the front seven. The process is quite different than what we saw with Pete Carroll where position groups would do position-specific drills.
Macdonald and Durde have stations that teach different concepts and each position group rotates through them. One thing they seemed to focus on today was the concept of team tackling. Whether it was defensive linemen or linebackers or edge defenders, they were asked to work in pairs to bring down a runner or receiver.
The concept reminded me a lot of soccer drills I did growing up where coaches would break down the game into 2v1 situations, that then can build up into multiple pairs of players understanding how to defeat a single opponent in tight spaces.
How often do you remember an opponent completing a pass in the flat with a Seahawk defender on either side of him, only to see the receiver run right between the defenders? Our collective foreheads are sore from all the slapping. These coaches were working to make that a painful memory instead of a painful future. Rallying to the ball is the hallmark of any great defense. That appears to be a big goal for this crew.
Durde feels like an underrated hireThis was my first chance to observe the new defensive coordinator in person. He was loud and encouraging, while being quick to point out an error or way to improve. He was detailed in his drills for the defensive line and edge players. At one point, he got down on one knee and extended his hand to give the edge rushers a target for how low he wanted them to be coming around the corner.
Durde was less heralded than the hire of Macdonald, Grubb, and maybe even Scott Huff. We may find that he becomes a head coaching candidate sooner than most think. He has the presence for it.
Quick hitter notes* Tyrice Knight was getting plenty of reps. He had tight coverage on Bobo to force an incompletion early, but appeared to not get proper depth on a drop that led to a JSN touchdown later. Growing pains for the rookie, but growing seems to be happening. * Mafe appeared to beat Charles Cross on one snap for what would have been a sack * AJ Barner caught the first pass I had seen to him. He is not the fleetest of foot, but is clearly a physical guy who looks to run people over. * Hayden Hatten, the undrafted free agent receiver, had a couple of nice catches on out routes. * Woolen had a nice pass break up that tipped the ball in the air and Devon Witherspoon dove to make the interception. Refs ruled it was pass interference on Woolen. I did not agree with the call. * The team has replay screens around the field and it was fun to see players utilizing them to see what had happened on the previous play they were involved in. Seems like a good learning tool. * Mike Morris had a tipped pass and some pressure, albeit against depth players. * Dareke Young looks strikingly similar to Ricardo Lockette, and not just because he wears the same 83. He had a couple big plays, including one slant where Tre Brown appeared to trip or simply bounce off the muscular Young. Watch out for this guy. He is a specimen. * Dee Eskridge continues to be one of the favorite players for other players to call out unprompted. In my interview with Jerrick Reed II a couple months back, he called him one of the slept-on players. In my interview with K’Von Wallace today, he also name-dropped Eskridge as a guy who had been making them miss. Eskridge had a few catches today, and looks solid. * Cody White had a couple nice plays on throws from Walker * There was a cool moment where Smith jogged all the way across the field a few minutes after having thrown the pick to Love. He wanted to dap up each guy on the defense for what he thought was a great play. That was not something you normally see, speaks to the person and leader Smith is becoming. * The big pass from Howell to Shenault happened when rookie Nehemiah Pritchett lost track of Shenault and let him sneak behind him * Pritchett’s Auburn teammate, D.J. James has a nice pass breakup, but also gave up a completion or two
The Mike Macdonald era is officially underway, and it got off to a running start. NFL practices are never slow, but the pace and execution for day one of training camp stood out. There are not official stats that track plays per practice. What I can say was that I never struggled to keep up with my notes after each play in the previous years, and definitely had that happen a few times today.
Macdonald comes to Seattle with a reputation for being detailed in his preparation. Early returns indicate that will transfer to his approach as a head coach. Of course, it was not only his success. Ryan Grubb was running his first NFL training camp practice on offense, and you would never know it.
It was roughly halfway through the practice before it occurred to me there was no telltale signs of a first time NFL offensive coordinator. Macdonald has been an NFL defensive coordinator for two years. Aden Durde has been in the NFL for years. There was no discernible difference between the defense and the offense in terms of execution.
It is customary for there to be a lot of false starts, confusion on routes or blocking, and just ugly play early in any camp. For Grubb to come in here and have his offense ready to go toe-to-toe with the best defensive coordinator in football on Day 1 speaks volumes about his own attention to detail and readiness to step into this role.
Geno Smith deserves plenty of credit as well. He was slinging the ball around without hesitation. He reached all parts of the field, including the middle, which was sometimes a forgotten part of the field under Shane Waldron. Smith has put in the work to learn this offense, and had his guys ready each and every snap.
The only false start I witnessed all practice happened with PJ Walker and the guys further down the depth chart. In that case, it looked like guys did not quite hear the play in the huddle.
Overall the offense stood out to me because of how many times I’ve witnessed bad offense early in camp. There were deep throws to D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and more. There were quick check-downs to Zach Charbonnet and Noah Fant. All skill players were utilized. All parts of the field. All with decisiveness.
Trying to assess the run game in an unpadded practice is silly. It is clearly an emphasis for Scott Huff and the offensive line. They spent a lot of time working on hand placement and moving defenders down the field.
Curtis to right tackle McClendon Curtis was a bit of a surprise in OTAs and minicamp getting snaps as the first string right guard. He moved to right tackle in this practice, and looked at home. Macdonald mentioned after practice that Curtis has moved around a bit but he has stood out.
I had not seen Curtis in person before today. He’s a massive man. George Fant towers over most of the lineman. He’s huge. Curtis might be bigger. He also caught my attention as one of the more physical blockers among the lineman, showing good drive and a violent punch. Count me as intrigued.
Rookie reportByron Murphy is among the most anticipated rookies in recent Seahawks history. Everyone talks about how big his legs are. My very first impression was, “Damn! He’s short!” That’s not news, but his body is considerably different than the typical NFL defensive lineman. It is hard for linemen to stand out in non-padded practices, but Murphy acquitted himself well when on the field. He got in the backfield a time or two. This was not a dominant display, but nothing to worry about.
Christian Haynes is also a shorty (says the guy who is 5’9″). My first impression was pretty neutral. I did not see anything notable one way or the other with Haynes. I was expecting a little more violence and power. Again, no pads and early, so nothing to worry about.
The rookie corners, Nehemiah Pritchett and D.J. James were activated off the NFI list and practiced. There was nothing notable for their first days.
Tyrice Knight looked good and athletic. He seemed to be in the right place on his coverage rotations and was quick to the ball.
Mike Jerrell looked more athletic than I expected. He moves well and seems to have some power. Sataoa Laumea was stiffer and seemed less powerful. They are playing different positions, but are competing for some of the last few spots on the offensive line.
Garrett Greenfield, the highly recruited undrafted free agent, is quite the athlete. He set the combine record for vertical leap (38″) by an offensive lineman. That athleticism was on display during position drills. He was on the wrong end of a bull rush from Derick Hall, however, that knocked him on his can.
Nelson Ceasar, another undrafted free agent, had a would-be sack during team drills.
George Holani, the running back from Boise State, has an NFL lower body with thick calves and strong thighs. He looked elusive and quick. He also showed up as a good receiver out of the backfield.
Jack Westover is thicker in the lower body than I remember him at University of Washington. He did not have any notable plays.
Other player notesSam Howell is a loooong way behind Smith. He held onto the ball for what felt like ages compared to Smith. Even when he found an open guy, as he did downfield with Dareke Young on once big completion, he was late to see him and deliver the ball. He was also high on a lot of throws.
Howell is short, which can contribute to overthrows in getting the ball over the line. There is absolutely zero quarterback competition at this point.
It was nice to see Grubb and Smith laughing during warm-ups. That bond is critical to the team and seems to be right on track, or even ahead of schedule.
Lance Boykin had a great pass breakup that had the defense hopping with excitement. He had a nice day, and has a lanky build that makes him an interesting corner prospect. He’s a guy I will be watching more closely, and could spell trouble for the rookie CBs who are trying to make the roster.
Mike Morris had some nice pressure. It was great to see him back on the field.
Metcalf looked as sharp as I have seen him. He had a fantastic touchdown catch in the red zone period despite blanket coverage from Tre Brown. He had a number of other big catches on the day, and just looked more like a professional than I remember. There was no emotion. He just made big plays and handed the ball to the ref. It was a small thing, but felt notable given some of his challenges in past years.
Smith-Njigba was a common target at various parts of the field and made the plays thrown his way.
Noah Fant was used a lot, especially in quick game.
Boye Mafe beat George Fant for what would have been a sack.
Hall had that bull rush on Greenfield and his legs will haunt my dreams. The dude looks like a super hero.
Connor Williams and Abe Lucas news loom largeMacdonald acknowledged after practice that the team had Connor Williams in for a visit and it, “went well.” He also offered that he would likely play center “if he were here.” That left me with the impression they plan on getting this done. That would be a massive addition to this line, offense, and team. He is an All-Pro level offensive lineman. If healthy, he would be the best player on that line.
The only reason he is available was a serious knee injury he suffered in December that some thought would cause the 27-year-old to retire. Instead, he passed the Seahawks physical and is reported to be in negotiations with the team about signing.
On the flip side, Macdonald was pretty noncommittal about Abe Lucas and his injury timeframe. He admitted he had hoped there would be more progress by now. He also said he could not put a timeframe on a return.
Lucas was at the practice and looked strong. He was walking with no limp and Macdonald said he was running full speed. People are going to worried about this until he is back on the field. My best guess is this will clear up in the next couple of weeks. The team is well positioned to handle it taking more time with Fant and now Curtis at right tackle.
Should the team get Lucas back and add Williams, the quality of this line dramatically leaps. We shall see.
Closing thoughtYou could feel the freshness of this new regime. It was evident in the staff, the coaches, the players. As much as everyone loved Pete Carroll, there was one thing he could not do, and that was be a breath of fresh air after 14 years in charge. Macdonald and crew have breathed new life into this franchise. Yes, it is one day, but that is evident already.
We are in the final countdown to the 2024 Seahawks training camp. Can you feel it? As someone who has attended a ton of these in the past, I have learned a few tips I wish I had known when I started. One of them was to have a printed roster in my hands to reference all the new faces and numbers buzzing around the field.
It’s especially helpful when going with folks who are not hardcore fans. Print a couple and hand them out. Even bringing some extra is a nice way to meet some friends and do a good deed for the day.
I’ve provided one below to download and print out. It has notes for every single player on the 90-man roster as of the date listed below.
Printable roster Having a roster handout like this will help you know who all these unfamiliar players are. You will want to have this. Trust me! I’ve added my own notes on every player. This is especially useful for people who are bringing a loved one who is not as big of a fan as they are, so they can get an idea who is who.
Updated 7/23/2024 at 5:01PM
TIPS* New rules, including what you can bring in (only clear bags like at the games, for example). Be sure to read the policy here. * Bring sunscreen + They supply sometimes, but don’t be caught without it! * Bring a chair + It’s not super comfortable to sit on the grass due to the angle. Maybe I’m just old. * Remember, this is general seating/standing + You do not have the right to the view in front of you. If someone is choosing to stand, move so you can see. * Wait for the three horns + The practices go longer than you think. It is not over until it’s over. * Use the bathroom on the way in + Otherwise, you have to walk all the way back down and around to get there, and you very well could lose your seat or your view * Be sure you want to bring kids + This is not like a game. It’s pretty boring after the initial interest wears off. I see parents frustrated with their kids every year who end up spending the time entertaining their kids and don’t get to watch much practice. It can be amazing for the right kid who is obsessed with football, but don’t expect the average kid to enjoy it. * DO NOT BRING BIG UMBRELLAS!! + Come on folks. Consider the people around you. It’s one thing to stand so you can see. It’s another to erect a permanent barrier blocking dozens of people behind you.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 320: Special Guest Maura Dooley of 710 ESPN
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 319: Is the Offensive Line Better Or Worse?
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 317: Mike Macdonald Interview & Best Case Seahawks Scenario
Football rules give a team four downs to gain 10 yards and get a new set of downs. On the surface, each down would seem identical to the other. The reality is that every down in football has a distinct personality, with unique strategies and considerations. No down may be more eccentric than 3rd down. Most teams consider it their last opportunity to get a first down on a given series. Defenses bring out their most exotic disguises and play calls. Offenses have plays and players tailored for those moments. Success or failure on this down separates the best offenses from the rest, and the champions from the losers. All eight of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL last season finished with a 3rd down conversion rate of 41% or better. The team with the higher 3rd down conversion rate in the Super Bowl has won 10 of the last 12 Lombardi Trophies. This down, however, has not treated the Seahawks kindly for many years. There is reason to think this new coaching staff can change that, and quickly.
A problem on both sides of the ballOne of the crowing achievements of the Legion of Boom era Seahawks defense was leading the league in scoring defense for four straight seasons. They were also top five finishers in yards against for five straight years. One thing they never did was lead the league in 3rd down defense. They ranked as high as 4th in 2015, but that legendary 2013 crew only ranked 10th.
Third down was often a frustrating down for Seahawks fans where Pete Carroll’s defense seemed more vulnerable. That went from a mild annoyance to a crisis by 2020, when the team slid all the way to 27th in defending 3rd downs, while allowing a frustrating 47% of opponents 3rd downs to result in a new set of downs. They recovered a bit in 2021, but slipped right back to 27th in 2022 and finally to a rock bottom 30th in Carroll’s final season.
The Seahawks offense, built more for explosive plays than sustained drives, only finished among the top 10 in 3rd down offense once during Carroll’s tenure. They were 4th in 2015, but even then they ranked 23rd for the first eight games of the season. It was only after a change made during the bye week midway through the year that the offense rocketed to 1st in the NFL for the final eight games with a sterling 52.5% conversion rate. Basically, the Seahawks offense has been mediocre on 3rd downs for every season under Carroll outside of an 8-game stretch in 2015.
While not as dire as the defense, Seattle’s performance on 3rd down on offense has slipped from the mid-teens to the low 20s, bottoming out at 23rd last season.
The combination of struggle on both sides of the ball on this down has led to dismal -10.1% differential on 3rd downs, allowing opponents to dominate the ball and leaving the Seahawks often with no answers. Great teams are rarely negative in 3rd down differential.
Breaking down the issue on offenseThe picture is not as gloomy as it may appear, especially on offense. The importance of 3rd downs reduce when a team can move the ball on 1st and 2nd downs. Seattle was 4th in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per play on 1st and 2nd downs last season. They were second in the NFL in EPA per dropback on those early downs. And there is no rule that requires a team to only earn a new set of downs on 3rd down. Seattle finished 6th in the NFL in converting 1st or 2nd downs into first downs (26.8%).
The Seahawks were one of the best teams in the NFL on early downsWant more good news? Geno Smith was the best 1st down quarterback in the NFL last season. He was the 3rd best QB by EPA/play on 1st and 2nd downs, behind only Brock Purdy and Josh Allen.
This means Seattle had one of the best early down offenses in football last season, powered by a quarterback who was nowhere close to mediocre in those situations. That begs the question: what changed on 3rd downs?
There is one more detail to add before addressing that question directly. Believe it or not, Seattle was not bad at all 3rd downs. The reality is a bit bizarre.
Seattle was one of the best teams in the league in converting 3rd and long (7-10 yards). They were awful at 3rd and super long (11+ yards), but let’s set that situation aside for a bit given it is a low probability conversion for any team.
Given the Seahawks elite performance on early downs and very good performance on 3rd and long, it almost makes you wonder if the offense was better equipped with intermediate-to-deep plays. What really jumps out, though, is how poorly Seattle did on 3rd and short-to-intermediate.
They actually converted fewer 3rd downs (as a percentage of chances) when they only needed 4-6 yards to go versus when they had to gain 7-10 yards. That really defies logic.
If you combine the top two rows from the table above and look at 3rd downs from 1-6 yards, Seattle ranks 29th in the NFL, converting just 44.2% of their chances. The best teams in football converted roughly 60% of those situations. If you get to 3rd and 1-3 yards, those rates go over 70%, and yet the Seahawks were roughly a coin flip on those moments.
The upside is that the down was not a total loss. There is some success to build on with 3rd and long.
One possible clue to the reason behind the 3rd and short struggles was that Shane Waldron called running plays just 35.8% of the time when his team needed 3 yards or fewer to gain a first down. That ranked 29th in the NFL. Many of the teams who ranked best in the NFL in these situations were the exact opposite of Waldron in this regard.
The Bills and Ravens ran the ball almost 70% of the time. The Eagles ran it 60% of the time. The 49ers were well over 50% of the time.
Another clue to where the Seahawks struggled on 3rd down was due to pass pressure. Smith had a cringe-worthy 16.6 QBR when the pass rush created pressure on 3rd down, per Brady Henderson of ESPN.com. When he was kept clean in the pocket, his QBR soared to 78.7. To put that in context, the highest QBR in all of football last season was 72.8. Protecting Smith is clearly at least part of the remedy here.
Pressure can often be the responsibility of the quarterback. Studies have shown that sacks tend to follow quarterbacks wherever they go, regardless of offensive line or offensive coordinators. We should check to see if Smith is creating his own problems.
Thankfully, Pro Football Focus has a statistic they track called Allowed Pressure where they assign responsibility to every pressure a QB experiences throughout a season. They include the QB in that assessment, as well as positions beyond the offensive line. Russell Wilson led the NFL in percent of pressures attributed to the QB with 24.3% deemed to be his responsibility. Smith was all the way down at 6.5%, which ranked 25th. He did not seem to be the pressure problem. So who was?
Keep in mind that ranking high in this number is not a good thing. The Seahawks right tackles were tops in the NFL in terms of percentage of pressures allowed, and it was not close. The second place team was the Colts, and their right tackles allowed 31.6% of their team’s pressures. That is a huge gap between #1 and #2 on the list.
This should not come as a major surprise given the time Abe Lucas missed and the fact that Jake Curhan and 41-year-old Jason Peters were out there for most of the season. Still, it is a key part of the problem here.
Left tackle is not great either. Charles Cross did miss a few games at the beginning of the season due to injury, but he played most of the season and was the culprit on over 26% of the teams pressures.
It was interesting to see that the interior offensive line, the positions that have received the most scrutiny and attention this offseason performed relatively well by this metric.
Reasons for optimism on offenseThere seem to be some pretty straightforward changes that can dramatically improve the Seahawks performance on 3rd down on offense. First, sign a backup right tackle who is good enough to allow the team to function if Lucas gets injured again. John Schneider checked this off his list by signing George Fant, who has been a starting tackle in the NFL for years, and is plenty capable of stepping in if needed.
Lucas is also not expected to have a chronic knee issue, according to Henderson who heard from a source on the team that Lucas should be fine once he finishes rehabbing. Just adding Lucas back to the lineup would be a huge step forward. Right tackle was responsible for just 19.2% of allowed pressures in 2022, when Lucas was playing. That’s a far cry from 37.3%.
Another simple change is to run the ball more on 3rd and short. It is one of the few situations where running is a decision that both analytics and common football sense agree is a good idea. Whether it is continued development from Anthony Bradford, new blood in Christian Haynes, or the veteran addition of Laken Tomlinson, the Seahawks should have the beef to be effective in running in those moments.
This is also where new coordinator Ryan Grubb comes in. He had one of the most high-powered offenses in college football last season, led by a Heisman candidate at QB. When it came to 3rd and short, though, he ran the ball 65.5% of the time. Grubb is also a guy who has proven to have the guts and creativity to make the big call in the key moment. Anyone who saw his 4th down call against the Cougars late in the 4th quarter knows what Grubb is capable of.
Seattle also has more wide receivers who have the potential to stretch the field horizontally, either through jet sweeps or bubble screens in Laviska Shenault and Dareke Young (and maybe finally Dee Eskridge?). That can help hold defenders long enough to open up the middle for more standard rushing plays.
Better play at RT and more running on 3rd and short are things that feel simple and probable. There are more reasons to believe things could be getting better.
Grubb was not just a highly effective OC at University of Washington, he was highly effective on 3rd downs. Washington finished 1st in the nation in 3rd down conversions during Grubb’s first season, converting nearly 57% of their opportunities. He did not maintain that sizzling rate in 2023, but still ranked 28th with a 44% conversion rate. That ranking actually improved against ranked opponents, where the Huskies were 16th in the nation.
Jalen McMillan was a big part of that offense in the slot, and Grubb should be heartened to know Jaxon Smith-Njigba showed signs, as the season wore on, of becoming the 3rd down weapon he was expected to be when drafted in the first round last year.
JSN has 12 plays that resulted in +2 EPA on 3rd downs biggest last year. All of them happened in second half of the season, including this beauty against the 49ers.
Put it all together, and the recipe looks something like:
- Better RT play (Lucas + Fant)
- Better LT play
- More rushing plays on 3rd and short
- Better play caller on 3rd downs (Grubb)
- Second year growth from JSN
All of these things fall into the “probable” bucket. The amount of improvement for Cross is probably the biggest question mark. Seahawks fans have to hope Scott Huff, the new line coach, can do for him what he did for Troy Fautanu and others at UW. If Cross takes a big leap, this team may rise from 23rd all the way into the top 10.
Improved pass protection would also mean you get more the “Top 5” version of Smith who was elite when operating from a clean pocket last year. Better play from Smith and better 3rd down performance could finally make this offense a problem for opponents instead of Seattle fans.
Breaking down the issues on defenseThe problem is not nearly as tidy on defense. By at least one measure, this was the worst 3rd down defense in football last season. The following image is “Rated R,” not suitable for all audiences.
Not only were the Seahawks the worst EPA team on 3rd downs last season, but look at the gap between Seattle and the next closest team in terms of dropback EPA/play. Seattle made the Commanders 3rd down passing defense look like the Legion of Boom.
They were not a ton better against the run. Seattle ranked 28th in the league in defending the run on 3rd downs. There is no salvation when breaking it down by distance.
You might think Seattle struggled to create pass pressure, as that can be a killer on 3rd downs. The Seahawks actually finished 9th in the NFL in pressure rate for the season, and even if you limit to looking at 3rd and 7-9 or 3rd and 11+, the Seahawks were in the top half of the league in creating pressures and even sacking the QB.
Pressure, at least by itself, is not the full answer.
Maybe coverage was the issue. Seattle ranked 10th in the NFL in coverage grade by PFF for the year. They had three corners (Devin Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, and Mike Jackson) all graded at 75.0 or higher in coverage, and also had a safety in Julian Love who was graded at 80.4.
This might be less about systemic problems and more about individuals being exploited. If you look at who had the most tackles on 3rd down, a flawed proxy for who was being targeted by offenses, Bobby Wagner led the way with 29 tackles, Love was second with 18, Quandre Diggs was third with 17.
Keep in mind that a tackle on 3rd down could be a very positive thing. These are all 3rd down plays, so some of these tackles resulted in stopping a conversion. One way to weed some of those out would be to find plays where the results was a positive EPA play for the opponents.
When you do that, you wind up with this list:
- Bobby Wagner: 19 (tackles on positive EPA 3rd down plays for opponents)
- Julian Love: 14
- Devon Witherspoon 11
- Quandre Diggs: 10
- Tariq Woolen: 8
- Jordyn Brooks: 8
- Mike Jackson: 7
- Tre Brown: 6
- Jamal Adams: 6
- Artie Burns: 5
- Coby Bryant: 5
This is not a smoking gun. Wagner could still have been covering for someone else’s mistake and making the tackle to save a bigger play from happening. Just 6 of those 19 plays were passes. Those seem more likely to be his responsibility or that another team was targeting him.
For Witherspoon, five the 11 plays happened in his first few weeks on the field. Three of the plays were penalties that resulted in first downs. Woolen also had three penalties that turned into first downs.
Adams and Bryant stand out given how few games they played, especially Bryant.
It does feel like there were a few players who were targeted by opposing teams. A number of those players are no longer with Seattle. Whether their replacements are improvements remains to be seen.
A very clear issue for Seattle was penalties. The Seahawks gave up 11 first downs on the year via penalty on 3rd down plays. That ranked 29th in the NFL. Eight of those came from cornerbacks.
Stepping back from 3rd downs, the Seahawks had a penalty problem on defense overall. They gave up 35 first downs on the year from penalties, which ranked 7th-most in the NFL. Woolen and Brown were two of the worst offenders with eight apiece.
Unlike the Seahawks offense, the Seahawks defense was bad on every down. They ranked 23rd in EPA/play against on 1st down and 21st on 2nd down. That porous performance on early downs led to more manageable 3rd downs, and helped to nullify what was a decent pass rush.
This was just a bad defense in almost every way last year. Narrowing it to 3rd down is a little misleading.
Reasons for optimism on defense Despite the gloomy truth Seahawks fans must face about the state of the 2023 defense, there are legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2024.
Foremost among those reasons is the addition of Mike Macdonald as the new Head Coach. Macdonald was tasked with studying 3rd downs and pressure packages when he was early on in his career with John Harbaugh. He took the best of a variety defensive coordinators pressure packages and incorporated them into his scheme.
That helped the Ravens rise from 15th in EPA/play on 3rd downs in 2021 to 4th last year. His scheme is the envy of every team, and beyond his scheme, is his penchant for adaptive game-planning and play calling.
Seattle has been so predictable on defense for so long, opposing QBs and OCs rarely felt uncomfortable or pressured into mistakes. One particularly telling statistic that shows just how much Macdonald created confusion with his scheme and play calling compared to the Seahawks came in terms of turnovers on 3rd downs.
The Ravens created turnovers on 3.8% of 3rd down plays between 2022 and 2023 when Macdonald was the DC, good for 1st in the NFL. The Seahawks defense forced turnovers on just 1.6% of their 3rd downs, dead last in the league. Baltimore was 14th the year before Macdonald was hired, so his presence did change the course of that defense in this way.
Another reason for hope here is that Seattle drafted a potential franchise-changing defensive tackle in Byron Murphy. Pairing him with Leonard Williams has the potential to be the best defensive tackle combination in the division and one of the best in football. Seattle has not been able to make that claim since the 90s when Sam Adams and Cortez Kennedy occupied the middle of their line.
Witherspoon had a terrific rookie year, but his role under Macdonald figures to be even more impactful. The game will not only slow down in his second season, but his mind meld with Macdonald could catapult him into rarified air.
On paper, there is another huge difference between this 2024 Seahawks defense and the 2023 squad. Seattle was one of the worst tackling teams in football last season. They ranked 31st in PFF’s tackling grade, missing a whopping 181 tackles.
The top three offenders: Brooks (21), Diggs (20), and Adams (15) are all gone. In their place, Rayshawn Jenkins and K’Von Wallace come in as two of the best tackling safeties in football. Wallace went two seasons without missing a tackle at one point.
There is a lot more projection required to plot a course to dramatically improved 3rd down play on defense for Seattle, but there are real reasons to think it will happen with Macdonald leading the way. It certainly cannot be worse.
Starting the climbThe combination of Macdonald and Grubb arrive in Seattle with a ton of promise. Their ability to not only improve their side of the ball, but challenge each other to get better has the potential to accelerate Seattle’s overall move out of the messy middle of the NFL.
Grubb would seem to have a more clear path to changing the team’s fortunes on 3rd down. Gains on that side of the ball would lead to more points and more possession, and should have a positive impact on the types of plays the defense can call (if they are ahead), and how rested they are.
The trail to the top is grown over, but these two are equipped with machetes to start clearing the way. Their combined performance on 3rd down will be an early indicator of just how fast this team will ascend.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 317: Defensive Rookie of the Year Canidates
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 316: NFL & Seahawks Schedule Release LIVE Reaction
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 315: Draft Aftermath & Rookie Minicamp
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 314: 2024 NFL Draft Recap
Draft GradesReader Rating1 Vote3.8People who are not sports fans find it hard to relate to the unbridled emotion that emerges from fans regarding a game that has no higher meaning. A ball went in a basket. A foot crossed over a painted line. A bat missed a ball. Trying to explain the outsized reaction to such mundane moments requires something akin to language translation. It is hard, but not impossible. Getting those people to understand the highs and the lows of the NFL Draft is a bridge too far. The idea that people would willingly watch names being called, mostly by teams that you do not root for, for three days is like describing how an alien species lives. Even the football fans start to be subdivided into further pockets of fanaticism at this stage.
There are football fans who will just track the picks on their phone or read about them after the draft is done. There are fans who will watch the first round, but skip the next two days. There are folks who will watch all three days. Then, there are the wackos who obsess over hundreds of players prior to the draft and cover every single pick. But wait, that does not include the folks who study draft prospects year around, or folks who specialize in a specific position group of draft prospects like offensive line. It is objectively a fetish of some sort. We are not having a rendezvous in a hotel room wearing a furry costume, but society likely would judge us similarly if they really knew how we were spending our time.
I am toward one extreme of that spectrum, having spent most of the last few months diving into prospects, interviewing experts, debating with trusted friends and fans about who and how the Seahawks should draft. I had formed pretty strong opinions about players and strategies.
As with anything, the more you put into it the more invested you are in the outcome. It is not only validating when your team picks a player you have studied and advocated for, but it is a thrill to know you will be able to cheer for that player for the foreseeable future. The opposite is also true.
Seeing players you love get passed by or selected by another team can be hard. Seeing the team select a player who was not among the hundreds you studied or maybe one you did but did not think highly of, can be deflating.
Emotion clouds judgment, which is why I like to take a beat before sharing my initial thoughts on any draft in written form. You can see and hear my emotionally-tinged immediate reaction to every Seahawks pick on YouTube.
Draft grading is more complex than you thinkEveryone will tell you that it is silly to grade a draft the day after it happens. You need three years to evaluate a draft class. That is true, but even that is overly simplistic. The draft is a cascading and compounding series of decisions that impacts not only your team, but every other team.
When the Cardinals and Chargers both declined to trade down in the first round, that had cascading implications. When the Chargers picked Joe Alt, that meant they did not take one of the premium wide receivers, and forced the Titans to take the second-best lineman on their board, JC Latham. When the Falcons chose Michael Penix Jr., it meant they did not take Byron Murphy. That series of events left Rome Odunze for the Bears, who are rumored to have been set to take Murphy if Odunze had not fallen to them.
John Schneider and the Seahawks had absolutely no control over what happened in the first 15 picks before they had their first chance to call out a name in the draft. The choices of those other franchises do not make him a better or worse GM. They are the wind. He is the leaf. You cannot celebrate or fault the leaf for where it lands.
This was an example of the draft falling in an advantageous way for the Seahawks. Murphy is a physical force who can help reshape the image of what has been a soft team with a weak spine. Murphy can be the titanium spinal augmentation this roster needs, especially when paired with Leonard Williams.
Before going deeper on the players and their implications to this roster, the point of that micro-recap of the first few picks of the draft is that the same sequence repeats throughout the entire seven rounds. Over the course of 70 picks, there could easily be a dozen or two dozen decisions that are unexpected and either nab guys off the Seahawks board that they loved, or push guys down the board they never thought would be available.
We have judged Schneider in the past for putting too much weight on need and reaching for players. That approach can lead to passing on a more talented player, which is where real regret and error creeps in.
The downside of truly honoring your board and taking the best player available is that you may end up with an overflow at a position, more good players than you have roster spots to keep. This can lead to having to cut good players down the line at a position you already were strong, while still having holes at other areas of need.
The debate here would be: are you better off taking a chance that a lower-rated player works out at a position of need while passing on a better-rated player at a position of strength, or adding a new quality player at a position of strength who incrementally improves a position you already see as a strength while potentially losing a quality player for little-or-no return (one guy in the group means another guy is out)?
This debate comes to mind because this draft was one of the strongest demonstrations of Schneider taking best player available, but also had an example of reaching for need.
The wind brought butterflies and hornetsThe draft largely fell in a positive way for the Seahawks in the first round.
Byron Murphy IIMurphy was my top choice for Seattle in this draft, and had been that way for months. He is physical force with rare quick twitch movement for a 300 pound man. He has a background on the offensive side of the ball and at linebacker. Those coordination and movement skills have stayed with him as he added weight. Having played those other positions make Murphy a player who thinks and expects to move laterally and quickly. The fact that he is also strong enough to play nose tackle is an incredibly rare combination.
People will compare his physical build to Aaron Donald. Then they will run away from it because nobody is Aaron Donald. Murphy is built like Donald. He is a special athlete that you do not see on the defensive line. No, I do not think he is Donald as a player, but the body type is a valid comparison.
The player who I think Murphy can become is Geno Atkins. The former Bengals wrecking ball in the middle of their line, and likely future Hall of Fame inductee, gave teams nightmares with his quickness and strength while being right around 300 pounds.
Lots of folks are comparing Murphy to Grady Jarrett, who is also great, but I think they are different athletes.
His ability to play nose tackle speaks to his unusual strength for his size, and explains his relative modest production (only 5.0 sacks this year). He is an ideal 3-tech defensive tackle who the team can let loose on opposing guards and may see significantly higher production in the NFL. He and Williams have versatility to allow the Seahawks to play different fronts against different opponents based on matchups.
Both players are strong against the run and impacting the pass. Murphy brings a high IQ and work ethic along with his outsized athletic profile. He already had an associates degree when he arrived at University of Texas and graduated college in three years. This is a theme throughout this draft class that bears watching as this new regime takes hold.
Murphy is only the fifth defensive tackle in franchise history be drafted in the top 20, and the first since Sam Adams was drafted 8th overall in 1994. He has a real chance to be the type of blue chip player teams need to build championship rosters around.
Day two was more complex.
Seattle appeared intent on addressing the interior offensive line. A player they were rumored to like a lot, Cooper Beebe, had fallen out of the second round and was getting closer to their pick. Meanwhile, there was a run on linebackers.
Junior Colson went to the Chargers with the 5th pick of the 3rd round (69th overall). Trevin Wallace went to the Schneider’s pal Dan Morgan and the Panthers three picks later. Both players had meetings with the Seahawks and were known to interest the team.
It seems logical the Seahawks probably tried to trade up for Beebe, but found no takers. Schneider acknowledged they were trying to move up but obviously gave no clue for who. Maybe they wanted a LB, but given they picked Christian Haynes a few picks later, Beebe seems the better bet.
Judging Schneider for not being able to trade up and nab Beebe would seem harsh and pointless. One could point to the lack of a second round pick from the Leonard Williams trade, or to the Sam Howell trade that caused Seattle to move down from 78 in the 3rd round. Maybe they would have found a taker if they still had 78 to trade up from instead of 81.
I’ll touch on the trades later, but given what Schneider had to work with on draft day, I do not see fault in not getting Beebe. The draft just did not cooperate in that case.
Christian HaynesBut this was not all out defeat. Haynes was a player who many expected to be gone in the second round, and some thought of as the best guard in this draft. That he fell to Seattle at 81 was a very positive Plan B.
Haynes is older (24), and smart (he has a Masters degree). He’s a solid athlete with a mean streak that you love to see in linemen, especially guards who are asked to block downfield. He finishes his blocks in ways that will get under the skin of opponents in a way we may not have seen around here since Breno Giacomini.
He has exclusively played right guard in college, but both Schneider and Mike Macdonald made the point multiple times that he has positional flexibility into center (and possibly the left side). It seems likely the team will ask him to start in the position he is more comfortable and confident in playing, which would mean either a competition with Anthony Bradford at right guard or Bradford switching to the left side to compete with Laken Tomlinson. Bradford did see some snaps at left tackle for LSU.
The idea of Haynes competing with Olu Oluwatimi at center might be the path to this pick realizing it’s greatest potential. Haynes profile as a smart, physical, finisher is very intriguing at center. While Oluwatimi shows promise as a pass protector, he lacks strength in the run game. We can hope he adds strength, but the most likely ceiling for him is an average starting center. Haynes could be a blue chip center.
It seems less likely Haynes will be a blue chip guard, but his floor seems quite high, and I like his chances of being better than Damien Lewis, who just signed a big deal with Carolina. There was a pick later in Day 3 that further makes the move of Haynes to center appealing. More on that in a bit.
Haynes has a chance to be the best interior offensive lineman on the Seahawks as a rookie. This was a very solid third round pick, with upside to be a great one.
The badlands of Day 3The end of Day 2 put stress on the Seahawks draft board. Linebacker was a clear need heading into this draft, but it was an awfully thin class of draftable linebackers. Seattle was known to have met with Junior Colson and Trevin Wallace. Both were taken on Day 2. Furthering the problem, Dallas took Marist Liufau on Day 2 as well, who was largely regarded as someone who would be taken 100 picks later. Green Bay took Ty’Ron Hopper, who Seattle was not linked to, but further emptied out the linebacker board. Finally, Pittsburgh took Payton Wilson, who has tremendous talent, but also is missing an ACL in a knee and may have been off the Seahawks board altogether.
Seattle was sitting pretty with the second pick of the fourth round to start Day 3, but with so many linebackers off the board, they likely did not have a player they deemed worthy of that pick and Denver came calling with a serious overpay for that pick.
It made a ton of sense for Seattle to move back and add another pick. At the same time, this was deviation from best player available drafting. Denver grabbed a receiver in Troy Franklin who was expected to go in the 30s at pick 102. Cedric Gray was a linebacker who many expected to go in round 3, some as high as round 2, who was picked at 106. Brandon Dorlus, a defensive end who was regarded as a 2nd round pick, went at 109. Dorlus and Franklin were not at positions of need, but could wind up being high quality starters. Gray may not have been deemed worthy of their pick at 102, or at least not worth the additional picks they got in return, but trading back cost the chance to add him to the roster.
People would feel different about this draft in any of those three names had been called by Seattle at 102. Instead, they traded back and added Tyrice Knight at 118.
Tyrice KnightKnight was so surprised to have his name called that he was not even in a place where he had cell reception when John Schneider was trying to call him. By almost all evaluations, Knight is a reach in the fourth round. A reach in the fourth round is hardly a backbreaker like reaching in rounds 1-3, but picking a player far higher than consensus does not usually work out for teams.
Knight was the 192nd player on the consensus big board that Arif Hassan publishes, which has been a very good reference for past drafts. Taking what would appear to be a sixth round linebacker in the fourth round is hard to get excited about.
Macdonald sounded like he knew Knight was a project during the press conference. He talked about him needing to start out a weakside linebacker and that he had a number of things he would need to learn that he had not yet been asked to do. They will always put a positive spin on any draft choice, but the board did not fall to them when it came to linebacker.
The team made the decision to get the best guy they had left on their board to fill a need versus grabbing best player available. Now, we hope that Macdonald can be the linebacker whisperer he was in past stops. A realistic hope is that Knight is a special teams player this year and maybe surprises enough to get some reps later in the season. He may not see the field until next year, and there may be an uphill battle for him to ever be a starter.
AJ BarnerA few picks later, they selected one of my favorite tight ends for the Seahawks in this draft. AJ Barner is a nasty blocker who is far more adept as a receiver than people know given how little the Wolverines passed the ball.
Barner could be a better version of Will Dissly. This was a guy most expected to go in round 6 or 7, but the tight end board thinned out early. Tip Reiman, another of my favorite players in the draft, went way early to the Cardinals in the third round. He was largely seen as a 5th-6th round pick.
Seattle once again had their hand forced by the fall of the board. Cade Stover was picked two picks later by the Texans, and then Jared Wiley at pick 131, and that largely emptied out the tight end class before Seattle would have had another pick.
There were some safeties who were really appealing in Jaden Hicks and Malik Mustapha, but the team decided to prioritize Barner.
That choice was understandable. The Knight selection could really come back to haunt them. Mustapha winds up in San Francisco, and could be a guy who Seahawks fans envy for years. He plays with a ferocity that would have reminded some of Kam Chancellor. Hicks goes to a young and aggressive Chiefs secondary. Only time will tell if Seattle made the right decision.
Rounds 5-6 brought overflowSeattle has the first pick of the fifth round, thanks to the trade back with the Broncos, and took a remarkably fast cornerback.
Nehemiah PritchettCornerback was a sneaky need for Seattle heading into the draft even though they are setup well for 2024. Tre Brown and Michael Jackson are in the last years of their deal. Pritchett ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the combine and said he broke 4.30 in other attempts. He’s fast. He’s got good size at 6’0″ and 190 lbs. He also was a pretty explosive return man, averaging 31.3 yards per kickoff return in 2021.
Pritchett was back to best player available drafting. This was not a pressing need, but an emerging one as you plan out your roster. He was 141 on the consensus big board and Seattle took him at 136. A number of evaluators had him as high as the 3rd round.
He’s purely an outside corner, and creates a bit of a glut at that spot with Jackson, Devon Witherspoon, Brown, and Tariq Woolen. You would generally only keep four on your roster. Cutting a 5th round pick is far from abnormal, but if you want Pritchett to be great and stick, the Seahawks will need to possibly let one of these other guys go, and none of them are players you want to leave without compensation.
Jackson is on a RFA tender that puts him at $3M on the cap and the team will likely cut him and try to sign him at the vet minimum. Jackson may choose to go elsewhere. Jackson may also be asked to take some snaps at safety, a position the Seahawks did not draft and a place where he may excel.
Some say they could trade Woolen. I thought that could happen before or during this draft, but doing so after the draft makes very little sense. I doubt they want to wait a whole year for a draft choice in return for a player who can help them this season, and player-for-player swaps are highly unusual. Woolen probably sticks around at least until the trade deadline.
Sataoa LaumeaSeattle had three picks in the 6th round, including the third pick (179 overall). The choice they made here could be the key to this draft. Sataoa Laumea was an offensive tackle at Utah, but will be converted to guard in the NFL. He was 157 on the consensus big board, with some folks taking him as high as the 3rd round.
He plays with high effort and a ton of grit and nastiness. There are some bad habits he will need to break as a pass protector, but Scott Huff is an excellent line coach who we can hope will help get the best out of him.
Laumea has a real shot to develop into a starting caliber guard. If that happens, it allows Haynes to possibly slide to center and then hope that Anthony Bradford builds on his rookie season. All of a sudden, you could be looking at a young offensive line, growing together from tackle to tackle, each with some upside.
I’m enamored with the idea of Haynes at center as his body type and smarts could become one of the best in the league. Laumea and Bradford could be the type of physical road grading guards that cement the line without really needing to be Pro Bowl caliber players.
If the fallback is Oluwatimi at center and Haynes at guard with Laumea and Bradford battling at the other spot, that is not a bad outcome either.
Laumea is a project, though. He should not be expected to come in and contribute this season.
D.J. JamesJames was another best player available pick. The Seahawks were faced with the decision of prioritizing need at spots they had not addressed like safety or taking a guy who they did not expect to be on the board even though they really did not have a need or spot for him.
James was 113 on the consensus big board. Lots of folks had him in the 2nd or 3rd round. Seattle nabbed him at 192.
He is the teammate of Pritchett, but a much different player who profiles more as a slot corner.
The value here is undeniable. The roster questions it creates are also undeniable.
Witherspoon is an ideal nickel corner who excelled in that role last year. You also have Artie Burns and Coby Bryant. Burns almost certainly loses out here if James lives up to his billing. He probably is a special teams guy as a rookie, but to even make that, Seattle will need to figure out numbers at cornerback overall.
This is a situation where it would have been ideal if another position had fallen to Seattle, but they did not reach, and may wind up with upside as a result.
The challenge with the two corner selections is that it is hard to make the case they will make the team substantially better next season. The best case scenario is they incrementally improve the depth this year, and then sustain the level of play Seattle already gets from that room in following years. Obviously, you want a strong corner room at all times, but the Seahawks need to improve the talent substantially on this team and corner was not a weakness.
I don’t critique Schneider for the choices, but must acknowledge the draft did not fall in the most advantageous way. Schneider said as much in his press conference.
Michael JerrellFor their final pick, Seattle took a shot at a guy who played at a small college (Findlay) as an offensive tackle and has some intriguing athletic traits. He’s a 93rd percentile athlete at tackle who is incredibly smart and also physical.
His quote about Seattle was practically poetry and has me cheering for him already.
Mike Jerrell took a pre-draft visit to Seattle. Here's how he described his experience:
"Very green, very beautiful city…It’s amazing to see the mountains, the trees, the buildings and stuff. It’s like God and man met together and just made a beautiful city.”
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) April 27, 2024
He probably does not make the team, but can hope to make enough of an impression to earn a practice squad spot.
Final thoughtsThere will be people who love or hate this draft class and who admonish or celebrate Schneider and crew. It is just far too complex for me to leave feeling any one person did a good or bad job. The luck of the fall helped early and hurt late.
Seattle seemed to make wise choices along the way, with one big exception in the fourth round. Even there, it is hard to say how things would turn out if they exited this draft without a linebacker or one worse than Knight.
The Sam Howell trade looks brilliant in retrospect. Howell is younger than many of the prospects in this draft, including a year younger than Bo Nix who was selected 12th overall. Schneider read the draft correctly that all the QBs really worth taking would be gone before they could really take one. When I say that, I’m talking about the third round. I do not believe they were ever really considering investing the 16th pick in a QB or trading up. The report that they were trying to trade up for Penix Jr. has been strongly debunked by credible sources.
You may be someone who loved Spencer Rattler, but that’s a preference. Howell is younger than Rattler, has more than a season of NFL starts, and cost roughly the same draft compensation Rattler did. There is no truly objective way to criticize the preference of Howell over Rattler.
The Williams trade is more challenging. His age and new contract make that a tougher evaluation. He and Murphy now form what could be the biggest strength on the team, which could raise the overall level of play a lot. He also is a terrific mentor for Murphy. Would the team be better off over the next 2-4 years if they had used that second round pick on a player like Tyler Nubin or Michael Hall Jr (which would allow the 1st to be spent on OL), or Javon Bullard or Mike Sainristil? I think they probably would be.
Schneider’s expensive trades for veterans have rarely been worthwhile. His less expensive trades for veterans (e.g., a 5th for Quandre Diggs, a 4th and 5th for Marshawn Lynch, etc.) have worked out quite a bit. What we cannot know is how much Pete Carroll was adding pressure to make those win-now moves. We can hope he stops making those big trades and becomes more patient to build through the draft.
Seattle needs incredibly strong draft classes to break out of this mediocrity they are mired in. I do not think this draft will meet that bar, but the best path to doing so would be if Laumea can become a solid starter and Haynes shifts to center. Even if this is not the franchise-changing draft, it is a strong one that added some quality players and may have added the best defensive lineman we have seen in a long time.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 305: Defensive Free Agents & What to Do with Geno?
The only thing that would be more surprising than the nauseating season opening home loss by the Seahawks would be if they repeated the thrilling shootout victory over the Lions in Detroit from last year. Seattle comes into this game as one of the worst teams in the NFL, whether you judge that from statistics, health, or vibes. Detroit enters riding the high of a road win over the Super Bowl champs for their home opener, with a city bursting […]
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Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating10 Votes0.5Last year was supposed to be painful. A journeyman quarterback leading a team of youngsters with no Legion of Boom members was expected to struggle their way into a top ten pick, far from the playoffs. The script they wrote was different. It started with a stirring victory over their former quarterback that left fans delirious with joy, thinking that would be their season highlight. They managed to chart a course well beyond reasonable hope into […]
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The story of the Rams and Seahawks franchises diverged last season. Los Angeles was coming off a relatively uninspiring Super Bowl win in 2021, where they benefitted greatly from neither the Bills nor Chiefs making it out of the AFC, the Rams fell off a cliff into oblivion. Injuries, age, and salary cap finally caught up to them, as Matt Stafford missed much of the season, and played poorly when he was on the field. Aaron Donald missed a number of games. Only one offensive linemen played more than 13 games. The wunderkind coach, Sean McVay, wilted under all the adversity and nearly chose to retire after a 5-12 campaign.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks were supposed to be the whipping boys of the NFC West after trading away their franchise quarterback. Instead, they rode a deep and talented rookie class, along with a resurgent career-backup-turned-Pro-Bowler quarterback, to the playoffs. Their septuagenarian coach somehow exited the year with more energy and maybe a longer future than his teeny bopper counterpart in LA.
The storyline heading into this 2023 home opener for the Seahawks is that the Rams are a pushover, with a team full of no-name youngsters, and Seattle is a team poised to take a step forward after another seemingly strong draft. There is truth in that narrative, but it would be a serious mistake to underestimate any Rams team that has Donald on the field.
Stafford missed both games against the Seahawks last year (as did Donald), and will be piloting an offense that has managed to give Pete Carroll’s various defenses and defensive coordinators fits for years. It sounds like Cooper Kupp will not play, but underestimate McVay’s offense at your peril.
Seattle has not typically started fast on offense in season openers. Vegas is expecting the Seahawks to score 26-27 points in this one. This could easily be a game where the winning score is closer to 20 points. The lower the score, the more the Rams have a shot.
Keep in mind that the Rams barely lost the two games last year with John Wolford and Baker Mayfield at QB. The Seahawks should win this one, but it may be closer than folks are expecting.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
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Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense 
Rams key advantages on defenseAaron Donald. He is a pretty big advantage. He also represents a great early test for the new center for Seattle, Evan Brown. It would be a big confidence boost if the interior line can hold their own against Donald. Cobie Durant is a young corner who looks promising.
This was the best red zone defense in football last year. They were also among the best in limiting explosive plays. The red zone defense feels like a regression waiting to happen.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseJalen Ramsey is not around to continue his entertaining matchups with DK Metcalf. The Rams young secondary should have its hands full with the Seattle passing attack, even if rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unable to make it back for week one.
Bobby Wagner is back on the Seattle sideline, which could have a massive impact on the Rams run defense. Greg Gaines and A’Shawn Robinson are also gone. Seattle got very little push from their offensive line during the preseason. That will need to change here to unlock a big offensive day for Seattle.
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offenseCam Akers is a decent back, who has had some success against the Seahawks. The Seahawks run defense was atrocious last season. LA will emphasize the run even more if Kupp misses the game. Steve Avila is a big new rookie guard for the Rams. We will find out quickly if he is a step forward or backward for that line.
Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant struggled to defend crossing patterns against the 49ers in the playoff game. McVay features many of those in his offense. Tutu Atwell had some big plays against Seattle last year and may get more chances in this one.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle should be able to create some pass pressure against this line. They had 6 sacks in the season finale last year, and their pass rush crew is better and deeper. Dre’Mont Jones will get his first game with the Lumen Field crowd roaring behind him. Boye Mafe has improved and will start.
The Seahawks defense will have to prove themselves this season. Skepticism is warranted based on the last 7-8 seasons. This is an opponent they have some clear advantages over. Wagner and crew will have a shot to set a new standard.
Special Teams
Neither team was particularly good in the return game last year. Both kickers were among the best.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 268: Seahawks 2023 Prediction Show
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating1 Vote2.6An oddly entertaining Seahawks preseason came to an end in a fittingly exciting fashion. An offense that had trouble stringing together two positive plays throughout the game, surged into a late lead and then turned to its third string quarterback to drive them the length of the field in a two-minute drill. Holton Ahlers showed his moxie once again, nearly completing the walk-off victory in Lambeau Field, but his desperation pass into the end zone was […]
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Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating11 Votes4The Seahawks have won the first two games of their preseason for the first time since 2017. Wins and losses are mostly irrelevant when starters are played sparingly by both teams, but try telling that to players and coaches. Seattle played an entertaining and energetic home game for the second straight week while dispatching a deep and physical Cowboys squad. One position, in particular, stood out. Much has been made of the questionable talent on the […]
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GAME RATINGOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating2 Votes2.8Coming to any conclusions during the preseason is foolish. What we can do is identify individuals who helped their cause to make the team or get additional snaps. The Seahawks were not particularly impressive as a team on Thursday night as they came back from a 10-0 deficit to win 24-13. There was the triggering poor run defense, blown coverages, and very little running room created by the offensive line. Amidst the rubble, there were some […]
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 261
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 260: 2023 NFL Draft Review
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Draft Watch Party: Day 3
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Hawk Blogger · A Real Hawk Talk Draft Watch Party: Night Two of the 2023 NFL Draft
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Hawk Blogger · A Real Hawk Talk Draft Watch Party: Night One of the 2023 NFL Draft
Overall Draft RatingUpsideAddressed NeedsPositional ValueReader Rating5 Votes4There are a few different ways to assess the pivotal 2023 draft for the Seahawks. You can look at the quality of the players they added. You can look at the price they paid for the players they selected, giving bonus points for bargains. You can look at whether they addressed needs. Finally, you look at how it fits with the rest of offseason to assess whether key weaknesses have been addressed. How about we do all those things?
Quality: Grade B/B+If you exit a draft with just one All-Pro player (e.g., top 2-3 at their position in the league), it has been a successful draft. Even grabbing a Pro Bowl player (e.g., top 5-12 at their position) is close to making a draft good on its own. Seattle drafted two players in the first round who both could have All-Pro ceilings. Pro Bowls seem almost likely. To put it another way, they will have underperformed my expectations if they both do not make a Pro Bowl.
Anthony Bradford is other player who has the athletic profile to become one of the best at his position in the league. He is far more of a project, with far less probability that he will reach that ceiling, but his potential is tantalizing. His athletic traits at 332 pounds are eye-popping, ranking 28th of 1,382 guards ranked for Relative Athletic Score (RAS) since 1987. He is a mover who is excellent in pulling and targeting guys in space, which is a perfect fit for the Seahawks offense.
I could possibly talk myself into Zach Charbonnet having Pro Bowl potential. I love his style and fit here. This was a guy who some had as the second best featured running back in this draft after Bijan Robinson, and was always expected to go in the second round even if not all of us believe that is a good place to draft running backs. He is big and has just enough shift to his game to avoid and break tackles. He was a guilty pleasure pick in some of my mock drafts leading up to this week. Given how much Seattle runs the ball and how well he compliments Kenneth Walker, I doubt Seattle will ever regret the choice.
I do not see a lot of other top-shelf potential in this class. I do see some guys who could become quality starters.
Derick Hall is a try hard athlete with a lot of power and speed. If absolutely everything comes together for him, maybe he can become something like Frank Clark. His more realistic ceiling is someone like Bruce Irvin. He is a pretty one-dimensional straight line pass rusher, but that one dimension is good enough that he could be someone who collects 5-8 sacks in a season. I have some question of where he will get snaps relative to Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, and Darrell Taylor, which impacts the probability of hitting a high ceiling.
Olu Oluwatimi has the potential to become a starter early in his career. His athletic traits are modest enough that it is hard to project him as a top-shelf starter. He is a technician and is a true center who has played in a pro style offense where he had to make the line calls. There is a pretty clear path to him finding snaps should he either beat out Evan Brown this year or take over next year once Brown’s contract ends.
Cameron Young feels almost identical to Jarran Reed. He is a stout 300-pound defensive tackle, who projects as a good run defender with limited pass rush. He could work his way into starter snaps, but would be a rotational player who would only be on the field for early downs. He could play an important role, even if there will not be many accolades for doing it.
Mike Morris is an interesting one. He has played different positions at different weights. He revealed in his press call yesterday that he was up to 295 from 275 at the combine. Seattle wants him to play on the line instead of as an outside linebacker. There are flashes on his tape that are intriguing, especially as someone going up against a guard. He is not the quickest guy, but plays with good power and motor. I do not see elite traits to indicate he could be a Pro Bowl player, but I do see something there that could develop into a valuable rotational player. Something like Rasheem Green comes to mind.
Jerrick Reed has the nastiness to his game to make him easy to root for, and Kenny McIntosh has everyone rooting for him after that emotional conference call following his 7th round selection. I usually prefer elite athletic traits with lesser college production in the very late rounds (think David Moore or Chris Carson) in the hopes you win the lottery. I do not believe either of these guys fit that category. Reed may have what it takes to become a starting safety or nickel corner. He is probably a special teams guy, if he makes it. McIntosh was one of the slowest running backs at the combine. He is a great receiver out of the backfield, and could be some competition for DeeJay Dallas on special teams and as a third down back.
Most likely, the Seahawks will get two high-end starters out of this draft. That’s a very good thing. Bradford is a key to determining the overall quality. If he becomes a Pro Bowl level player, this draft automatically leaps into elite territory. Hall becoming something like Clark could do the same, even if I see that as pretty unlikely.
Mostly, it feels like the Seahawks added a number of solid role players after round one.
Value: Grade STrying to grade whether a team got a good bargain on their picks based on pre-draft rankings of folks who have a fraction of the access that team’s do is stupid, so I give it a grade S. The only thing I will really say here is that taking a running back in the second round, especially two years in a row, is really questionable strategy. I will add that the difference between Oluwatimi in the 5th and some of the centers that went before him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds is slimmer than most would think which makes it a solid value pick.
The picks with the highest potential to make their draft position look like a steal are:
- Smith-Njigba
- Bradford
- Hall
- Oluwatimi
- Reed
Some would say McIntosh, but I just don’t generally see running backs as a steal when you draft them late. That’s where you should try and get them.
Addressed needs: Grade B-The biggest need on this team was on the interior defensive line, and it was not close. There were limited options at defensive tackle in this draft, and Seattle came out with very limited upside there. Fans and media are clamoring to bring back guys who played on the line last year when it was a disaster. That’s objectively a bad sign.
Young will help. Morris is more of a project. The Seahawks defensive line has a high potential to be one of the worst in the NFL again. That is a bitter pill.
Inside linebacker is another area of concern that got zero attention in the draft. Again, the options were very slim, but the team painted itself into a corner by betting on Devin Bush in free agency over other, better, options knowing this was a bad linebacker class. Bobby Wagner is gone after this season. Jordyn Brooks had ACL surgery this year. It is looking more and more like Jon Rhattigan is going to have a larger role than people expect.
Third receiver was a sneaky big need, especially if it was a guy who had upside to move outside and replace Tyler Lockett in a year or two. Smith-Njigba is the absolute ideal pick to do exactly that. Home run. Hand in glove.
Putting an elite corner opposite Tariq Woolen was a need the way that new Maserati you’ve been eyeing is a need. Very few teams have Pro Bowl players at two corner spots. Seattle may wind up with three. Witherspoon, Woolen, and Tre Bown have tremendous upside. Coby Bryant and Michael Jackson cannot be slept on. If you are going shopping for a pickup and come home with a Maserati, can you really be that upset?
It was hardly a need to add another edge player to a room with Nwosu, Mafe, Taylor, Tyreke Smith, and Alton Robinson. That said, Nwosu and Taylor are entering the last years of their contracts. Mafe was just okay as a rookie. Taylor struggled mightily in everything that was not rushing the passer. Mafe was limited a pass rusher. A guy like Hall could wind up being a better combination of skills that fits a nice role on certain downs or against certain teams.
Young fits a clear need in the middle of the line as a run stuffer.
Bradford is a very good option for guard, even if there were a few guys I would have preferred earlier in the draft with higher floors.
Oluwatimi hits the spot at center, where Seattle has been mediocre or worse for a decade.
Charbonnet and McIntosh help fill out a running back room that was paper thin before this draft.
I think tight end was a bigger need than most realize with Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant entering the final years of their deals. This draft had some great tight end options. That said, you cannot hit every position, and this was a logical omission.
Creating strength / Addressing weaknesses: Grade BFixing the defenseSeattle had one of the worst defenses in football last year, and that’s been the case for a few years. Their run defense, in particular, was a disaster. Their best run defender was Al Woods, and he was released. The defensive line, in general, was completely lacking any dynamic athletes that gave opposing teams headaches. They added Dre’mont Jones, but added nobody else threatening around him, reducing his upside since teams can focus on him.
Taylor was a major issue in run defense on the edge. Hall may be better, but the scouting reports were that he struggled in run defense. Mafe was already getting snaps and was not enough of a factor to address the issues.
Wagner should definitely help against the run on early downs, but also is more of a liability in coverage at this point than some of the guys Seattle ran out there last year. I have very low expectations of Bush, who may wind up being worse than Cody Barton.
If I want to make my most optimistic case for an improved Seattle defense next year, it is that an elite secondary will help them commit more players to the run and possibly blitz more often to create favorable matchups for pass rushers. Julian Love could be a very valuable addition and if Jamal Adams and Jordyn Brooks can somehow actually contribute, there are some pieces to play with.
Seattle almost certainly will hit the free agent market again after they figure out how to clear cap space. Akiem Hicks is a name to watch. Maybe even someone like Jadeveon Clowney would make some sense.
As it stands, this defense has a number of guys who do one thing well and other things quite poorly, which makes scheme and personnel groupings tough. I do not yet see a team that can dictate a lot to offenses. The hard truth is we may be another offseason away from rebuilding this defense. I absolutely hate that thought.
Interior offensive lineAnother weakness later last season was the play of the interior offensive line. This had a major impact on the play of Geno Smith and the run game. There is a better chance this has improved. Gabe Jackson was doing nothing for this team. Austin Blythe was losing steam and retired. I like Evan Brown getting his first real shot as a starting center and Oluwatimi pushing him. I like Phil Haynes coming in as a starter with Bradford pushing him. Damien Lewis quietly had the best PFF grade of any Seahawks offensive lineman.
Elite unitsWhile it is important to patch weaknesses, it is also critical to create true areas of elite strength. A team with no weaknesses and no elite strengths has a very low ceiling in the NFL. You need to be so damn good at some things that other teams have no answer for them. Seattle now has a few that could be reaching that status.
The cornerback room is loaded. There is a chance this group could be among the top 3-5 in the league, and stay that way for years to come at very affordable prices.
The secondary as a whole could become one of the best in the league as Love provides much more certainty that safety will be a position of strength.
Wide receiver is another group that has to be in the top 2-3 rooms in the league. I cannot imagine how teams will cover all three of these guys.
The running back room could be young and elite.
The offensive line has the potential to become one of the best if the tackles take a big step forward and the interior options work out. They are young and affordable as well.
Many Seahawks fans will question this, but the quarterback position already demonstrated it was among the best in the league, and certainly among the top 2-3 in the NFC. Smith has more weapons, better protection, and a full offseason to prep as a starter. There is every reason to think he will be one of the best again.
Consider that last season there were no position groups that could have been reasonably been projected as elite heading into the season outside of maybe safety. There was an elite duo at receiver but nothing after them. You cannot go from bare cupboards to overflowing talent overnight. I would rather see the team create true strength by taking great players than forcing picks to address their biggest needs.
Seattle almost undoubtedly got better in this draft. I have some questions about upside beyond the first round. There is a lot riding on Witherspoon and Smith-Njigba. It will be great to see these guys on the field and against NFL competition. Until then, it is all guesswork.
Round 1 RatingUpsidePositional ValueAddressed NeedReader Rating25 Votes4.4The most consequential draft, possibly in franchise history, started with a first round that did not go as either the Seahawks or draft experts expected. While most fans and analysts wanted or projected either defensive tackle Jalen Carter or quarterback Anthony Richardson at the fifth overall pick, Seattle went with cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Their second choice, the almost unguardable wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, was less of a deviation from predictions. In both cases it appeared Seattle had stuck with the best graded player on their draft board after being unable to track back. There were no reaches, no mad dashes to Google to figure out who this person was. The night ended with Seattle adding the best cornerback in what may be the best cornerback class in decades, and the best receiver who could not be a more ideal fit for what they need.
Why Devon WitherspoonAbout 95% of the talk around the Seahawks fifth pick was either Carter, Richardson, or a trade back. Richardson was not available since he was picked fourth by the Colts, so we will never know if he was the top option on Seattle’s board had he fallen to them. Carter was available.
What that means is Carter is not on Seattle’s draft board. It is highly unlikely they graded him low as a football player or for a need that they clearly have on the defensive line. The only explanation for not taking him at five is that they do not believe in who he is as a person.
Much has been made of the arrest for reckless driving that resulted in two deaths, which were not deemed his fault. That was not where I think Carter lost Pete Carroll and John Schneider. It was at his pro day when he showed up out of shape, overweight, and could not even finish his position drills.
Carroll and Schneider covet young men who absolutely love football. They want guys who bring energy and passion to every part of the game. There is possibly nothing more antithetical to their mindset than someone who does not even push himself to finish what are pretty casual practice drills in what was a job interview that could make or lose him millions of dollars.
If he can’t motivate himself to push through that adversity, brought on by previous decisions he made to not be in shape for the session, what would he be like when he had all that money and things got tough during the grind of an NFL career?
I spoke to Cliff Avril, K.J. Wright and other former Seahawks who wanted nothing to do with Carter based on that performance at the pro day. His visit to the VMAC was clearly not enough to convince Schneider or Carroll to look past it.
Seattle was not alone. Detroit was widely expected to leap to the podium to call Carter’s name if Seattle passed. They did not. Neither did the Raiders or Falcons. Ultimately, the team with most of the Georgia defense already in tow, decided to add another Bulldog when the Eagles picked him at number nine.
Carter may ultimately thrive there next to his former teammate and alpha, Jordan Davis. That Eagles defense is good enough that Carter will not need to be the focal point. That will not change how Schneider or Carroll feel about their process. You simply cannot select a player who you do not believe is a person you want in the locker room.
They went, instead, with their top player on the board. Witherspoon has impeccable makeup. He not only loves the game, he loves hitting people and playing with an infectious edge that Seattle covets. He is excellent in coverage, excellent in run support, and excellent in playmaking.
If you have read, listened to, and watched enough draft coverage in the past few months, you would hear that many saw Witherspoon as one of a very small handful of players in this draft with the potential to be a true blue chip addition. Blue chip, referring to the notion that the player could become one of the best at his position across the league, an All-Pro.
Pro Football Focus had him as the fourth-best player overall. Almost nobody had him being selected later than sixth or seventh. This is a guy who just had one of the best seasons for a cornerback in college football history. He erased whoever he was guarding.
He can play either side of the field and also slide inside if needed. He most likely becomes the starter opposite Tariq Woolen. That could change depending on the performance of Michael Jackson, Coby Bryant, and Tre Brown.
The team loves Jackson as a physical and feisty corner as well. Brown had shown flashes of Pro Bowl potential before being injured as a rookie. Bryant came on strong in the slot. Any of Brown, Bryant or Witherspoon could find their way into the slot role. Any of Jackson, Brown, or Witherspoon could start opposite Woolen.
Seattle now has corner depth that truly rivals the Legion of Boom days when future starters like Byron Maxwell and Jeremy Lane were backups.
As much as Seattle desperately needs help on the defensive line interior, they just helped their run defense and pass rush by creating a secondary that should be capable of playing more man coverage than almost any in the league.
The more you can trust your corners to guard their guys one-on-one, the more men you can commit to the box to stop the run, the more you can blitz, the more time your pass rush has to get home. It is not the linear path of just getting beefier and more talented upfront, but just remember the Super Bowl defense was built from the secondary forward.
Why Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeattle has Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf as one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. Many casual fans may think it makes no sense to spend such a valuable pick on a position Seattle is already strong. Look deeper.
Lockett is 31-years-old. Both he and Metcalf are set to count $24M against the cap in 2024. Even if Lockett continues to produce at the levels he has, his time in Seattle is closer to an end than most realize.
Even if you remove the future of Lockett from the equation, the Seahawks have been absolutely awful in the slot since Doug Baldwin Jr. retired. There have been busts and retreads and frustrating failures. That was a little less of an issue when the aging Russell Wilson was at quarterback as he had increasingly relied on deep passes.
Geno Smith is a smart quarterback who reads defenses pre-snap, and throws with accuracy, timing, and anticipation. The total lack of slot production last season was glaring. A great slot receiver thinks along with his quarterback, reading and reacting to defensive coverages almost in hive mind unison. When those two players connect and have the talent to exploit that connection, it becomes almost unguardable.
Sure enough, Smith-Njigba has been described as exactly that by many people multiple times. How unguardable? Try 15 catches for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns in a bowl game. This guy was the best receiver on a team that produced Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, with Wilson winning Rookie of the Year last year and Olave finishing fourth in the voting.
He is not the guy who takes the top of the defense as a deep threat. He wins with elite agility. His 3.93 second 20-yard shuttle was the fastest by a receiver at the combine in a decade. His 6.57 time in the 3-cone drill was the fastest of any receiver in the draft. He can stop and start on a dime. He can change direction faster than a politician.
So much is made about size and speed in the NFL at the receiver position, but agility and body control are often the better predictor of receiver success. Add in intelligence on how to read a defense and instincts for timing and you have a very dangerous weapon.
Smith-Njigba is not a small guy either. He stands over 6’1″ and weighs more than 200 pounds.
Putting a player like that in this offense to work with a quarterback as smart and prepared as Geno Smith, and you are going to see defenses incredibly stressed about how to guard all the weapons. Plenty of teams have started to double both Lockett and Metcalf over the years, with safeties playing over the top of the corners who are guarding them, daring Seattle to throw the ball elsewhere.
They had some success throwing to their tight ends last year, but none of those guys are close to as dangerous as Smith-Njigba. He will quickly become a primary focus for secondaries, which will mean either Lockett or Metcalf will enjoy more single coverage. Good luck with that.
Smith-Njigba is not solely a slot player either. Should there be an injury or Seattle eventually moves on from Lockett, he can move outside and be a top-tier producer there as well. Numerous coaches and teammates have called him the best route runner they have ever played with. He is going to be an excellent Seahawk.
Premium positionsMany fans may not understand the role positional value can and should play in where draft picks are utilized. The idea of positional value is pretty simple. Some positions cost more than others. Quarterbacks, for example, cost a ton more than any other position. Centers cost less than almost any other position.
What you want to do in the draft, especially early on, is get players at positions that will provide the greatest spread between what you will be paying them and what the market would pay. That is why so many quarterbacks get picked early, even if they seem like reaches. A quarterback that hits in the first round is a bargain only bettered by a quarterback that hits in later rounds (although, first round QBs are secured for an extra year on their rookie deal).
Two of the other most expensive positions in the NFL are cornerback and receiver. Even the relatively hefty salary Witherspoon will get as the fifth pick will rank around 27th in the NFL among corners. Smith-Njigba’s salary as the 20th pick will rank close to 60th among receivers in the league. Should they both turn out the way most expect, they will be among the biggest bargains in the league, allowing Seattle to spend money elsewhere on the roster.
As much as I want a center and a guard and a stout defensive tackle (the nose tackle types), those positions are simply not valued the same way. Case in point, Seattle just signed what could be their starting center for just over $2M. I still expect them to take a center, perhaps as early as the second round, but it is important to understand how much positional value plays a role in how teams set up their draft boards.
The nitsIt is hard to quibble with a first round that nets your team the best cornerback and the best wide receiver. Still, I sensed Schneider was not thrilled with how the night went during his press conference.
I largely attribute to that to being unable to trade back from either pick. Seattle took both picks down to the wire before turning in the card for the guys they took, which indicates they were desperately trying to trade back.
By not trading back, there is significantly more pressure on their next three picks at 37, 52, and 83. The team needs multiple defensive linemen, a center, a linebacker, a guard. There are also some great tight ends. The quality falls off quite a bit after those three picks. Schneider knows that and likely was doing whatever he could to add another pick in the second or third round.
He even mentioned that they’d be active today. They have two fifth round picks. I fully expect them to try and package picks and possibly Noah Fant to try and trade up for another second or third. It is vital that they find a way to do that.
Just adding one more pick would be huge. Short of that, look for them to move up from 83 to higher in the third round.
It takes two to make a deal, and clearly the Seahawks did not get the deal they wanted. Let us hope they find that deal today. I am optimistic.
Strong startThere have been plenty of years where we as Seahawks fans have scratched our heads at Schneider’s draft strategy in the first round. He has picked odd positions and odd players, and the ones picked toward the end of the first round have not often worked out. We have been left to twist ourselves into pretzels attempting to justify and understand the logic, while trying to trust a general manager who had so much success finding talent where draft experts did not early in his tenure.
That changed last year as the Seahawks made logical pick after logical pick. I may not have been a fan of the positional value of Kenneth Walker, but I had no doubt about his talent. There is a strong signal that the team is once again avoiding the trap of allowing team needs to tempt them into taking a player far too high in the draft.
As simple as it may sound, it takes a ton of discipline to take the best player available instead of the one who most fills a need. Neither corner nor receiver was close to the biggest need for the Seahawks coming into this draft. Had Schneider overweighted need, they likely would have exited with inferior players. That is a losing strategy in the long run.
There are fans in Detroit right now who are wondering how they went from expecting to add Carter or Witherspoon to getting a running back and a middle linebacker. Both players may prove to be solid additions, but the positional value is awful and the opportunity cost is astronomical. Those two choices may dramatically reduce the ceiling for a franchise that was building toward something special.
Schneider and the Seahawks made logical choices on players with high upsides and massive positional value that create two of the most talented position groups in the NFL. Even if I was disappointed that Jalen Carter did not prove to be the man Seattle needed him to be, I am thrilled to exit day one of this pivotal draft with a team that is clearly better than it was 24 hours earlier. Day two will be critical to determining how much closer the Seahawks are to true contenders in an NFC that appears to have only one or two great rosters.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 259: “What Do We Want to Happen?” vs “What Do We Expect to Happen?”
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 258
Let’s get this out of the way right from the jump: you should be highly skeptical of every grade and take I have on prospects for this draft. I have not watched hours of tape on each player. I have no access to them as people and cannot truly assess whether they are of good character or passion for the game. I am not Xs & Os geek, who can tell you exactly what these players were being asked to do in each play or whether they did what they were asked to do correctly. There are a decent number of these players I have only done superficial analysis based on the analysis of others.
There is another truth that we should all accept: almost everyone else doing mock drafts and big boards are also in the dark about tons of information, making their assessments flawed as well.
For the first time since I have been writing about the Seahawks (over 16 years), I decided it was worth my time to start grading prospects for the upcoming draft. I did it mostly for my own sanity and obsession. It forced me to think not only about the prospects individually, but relative to one another. And not just within position groups, but across positions, like you would in a true draft.
Most of my grades were given relative to my assessment of the individual, but maybe 20% of each grade took into account how I see the player’s value specifically for the Seahawks. Not every player is of equal value to each team.
The result was a fun tour through a draft with tons of value available for the Seahawks to add to their young core. I will likely revisit certain grades, and add more people to the board before the draft begins. For now, rage or rejoice in my assessments, and consider sharing your own.
Big board broken down in different waysI started my process by simply listing players I was interested in on the “Grades” tab. I then created various views of those players, including by position, by grade, and by predicted draft selection.
The resulting big board should not be considered a pure ranking of who Seattle should draft at every pick. For example, Bijan Robinson is the top player on the board because I think he is most clearly projectable as a repeat Pro Bowl talent. I do not believe Seattle should consider taking him in the first round, but I am not going to deny his talent or projection.
You may also notice that I have designated players a position that might differ from what you see elsewhere. That is because I was grading them based on the position I would expect them to play for Seattle. For example, Peter Skoronski is listed as a tackle most places, but I would expect him to play guard for the Seahawks.
NOTE: There are lots of players missing, including guys that will go in the first round, because I am not interested in them for Seattle or have not spent enough time evaluating.
You can play with the sheet either with the embedded widget below or by opening the sheet via this link.
NotesThe strength of this draft is rounds 2-3There are a handful of players who rise to the top of this draft, but I would argue none of them are as clean of projections to be stars as some other drafts we have seen. Where this draft stands out is that you may be able to get a guy in the late second round or third round who is extremely close in potential to a guy drafted in the back-half of the first round. I see a ton of players who project to be quality starters. Seattle would be wise to stockpile more picks in those rounds, both by trading back in the first round and by bundling picks to trade up from later rounds.
I see different tranches of value:
- Picks 1-7
- 8-15
- 16-40
- 41-85
- Rest of draft
It would be a mistake to leave without a cornerbackThere are a treasure trove of cornerbacks who are potential quality starters, and fit the Seahawks profile for the position, and should be available as late as the 4th or even 5th round. Unlike offensive tackle, which is also a deep position in this draft, Seattle has room and reason to add another corner. As much as I like Tre Brown, he has not played a full season. Michael Jackson has proven himself a passable starter, but not a great one. The impact of adding another great young starter opposite Tariq Woolen should not be underestimated.
Tight end over receiverThe tight ends available early in this draft have more intriguing upside than most of the top receivers in this class. As much as I see Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a clean prospect who is easy to project as a difference maker, he is still primarily a slot receiver. I like Zay Flowers as well, but he’s also a slot guy with a few more question marks than JSN. I see my top three tight ends:
- Michael Mayer
- Darnell Washington
- Luke Musgrave
as having a higher ceiling than any receiver outside of JSN. Dalton Kincaid is lower for me than others because I see him almost exclusively as a receiving tight end, with limited utility for Seattle.
Toughest gradesThere were players I really liked that, when forced to truly project what level they would reach in the NFL, became tougher to move up the board. There were other players, who I don’t value as much, that were hard to argue as top-shelf talent.
Will Anderson Jr. – 3-4 Outside LinebackerThis is one of the more difficult players to judge. In part, because so much is on the line for the Seahawks at the #5 pick. Anderson has been a top prospect for years. He is unquestioned in terms of football character, love of the game, work ethic, and leadership. He also is not an eye-popping athlete, has a limited pass rush repertoire, and would be a rotational player for Seattle. I started with him as the only 9.0 grade in the draft, indicating perennial All-Pro potential. I found myself pulling that grade down, and almost wanting to pull it down more. The floor is very high for Anderson, but the ceiling may not be what most assume it to be.
Jalen Carter – Interior Defensive LinemanI won’t belabor the point with Carter. He has been discussed ad nauseam. I mostly evaluated him as a player on the field. His ceiling seems clearly higher than Anderson. That said, there are enough questions about his character to reduce the likelihood that he will reach that potential.
Devon Witherspoon vs Joey Porter Jr. vs Christian Gonzalez – Outside CornerbacksThese guys all have things to love. Witherspoon is so darn physical. That is what ultimately put him at the top of the CB list for me. That said, he is the smallest of the bunch. Porter Jr. could easily move ahead of him with his 6’2″ frame and similar aggressive style with proven press expertise. Gonzalez is just smooth. His floor seems pretty high, but I have more questions about his ceiling.
Darnell Washington – Tight EndI am a bit obsessed with Washington. He is easily one of the names who would excite me the most if Seattle called. That clouds my judgment a bit. He is also a little unique as a prospect given he is so massive for the position. I wound up giving him a near-Pro Bowl grade, but someone who likely will be drafted between picks 20-40. He may just end up being a great blocking tight end with occasional contributions through the air. That might be a super valuable skill set for the Seahawks. I also may just be way too biased here.
Andrew Vorhees – GuardThis was a player I loved for Seattle in the second round before he hurt his knee at the combine. He is a great fit for how the Seahawks like to play guard, but now there is the injury to factor in. I wound up grading him at the level I believe he can reach, but projecting him as a day three pick.
RisersA few players became more interesting as I spent more time evaluating.
Charlie Jones – Slot WRJones is a guy who could be a big contributor to the offense without requiring the team to spend a day one or day two pick to acquire him. He is limited in size and upside, which should push him down. He also is great at finding soft spots in zones and making tough catches. He would be great in the fifth round.
Cody Mauch – GuardThe big redhead is raw, but powerful and athletic. He might be my favorite guard prospect for Seattle after Skoronski when factoring in the value of the pick it would cost to acquire him.
Nolan Smith – 3-4 outside linebackerSmith wowed everyone at the combine with insane athletic scores. He is also known as an excellent person with tremendous passion for the game and leadership skills. He will fall for some because his pass rushing prowess is limited so far and he is an edge player. He is also very light (under 240 lbs) for an edge player. What I see is a guy who excels at stopping the run, has all the movement skills to drop into coverage, and the raw materials to become an effective pass rusher. He is almost the opposite of Darrell Taylor, which makes him a great rotational companion. He could be a great option at #20.
Adjustments will continueThere are less than two weeks until the most momentous Seahawks draft in at least a decade. I am listening to breakdowns of players everyday, watching more film, and reflecting on what Seattle needs and wants. Who I want them to select is not necessarily a good indicator of who they will select. It is a lot of fun when the two lineup, like taking two tackles in the first three rounds last year.
I can make cases for and against nearly every player on my big board. As I said at the outset, there are all sorts of flaws in the system, but it was a lot of fun to do. If it leads to a new thought or good debate for you and other fans, all the better. Let me know which grades stand out to you.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 257: Important Questions That Remain Unanswered Two Weeks Before the Draft
The proliferation of mock draft simulators has thousands of fans producing a never-ending stream of possible outcomes for the Seahawks in this pivotal 2023 NFL Draft. These simulators factor in things like perceived team needs and generalist prospect grades to determine where players will go and how the draft hauls are assessed. A major missing factor is how the general manager of various teams has approached the draft, and approached positions over the years. These tendencies are often more telling and persistent than fans want to admit. The divide between how a GM approaches the draft and what fans perceive as the best value is the gunpowder that leads to fan blowups as unexpected names or positions are called. This article should act as a reference to help anticipate John Schneider’s strategy given what he has done over the past 13 years.
Come to your own conclusionsI took the time to catalog every one of Schneider’s picks, and break them down by position and round drafted. You can play with the sheet either with the embedded widget below or by opening the sheet via this link.
ObservationsOffensive tackle has been the position most selected in the first roundSchneider has used four first round picks on tackles. This draft has a ton of tackles, but Seattle also just used a 1st and a 3rd on the position last year and appears in good shape there. They have been willing to draft tackles and slide them inside to guard, but that is misleading. They drafted these guys early to play tackle, and when it was clear that was not going to work, they slid them inside. The lone exception would be Germain Ifedi, who started at guard and went on to be a tackle, but I still believe they drafted him to play tackle.
Seattle does not draft guards or centers earlyIt is clear the Seahawks would benefit from more guard and center talent on the roster. There are some players who warrant selections even in the first round, and definitely in the second. That would cut against Schneider’s habits. He has only spent one pick ahead of the third round on an interior offensive lineman, and that was Ethan Pocic (2nd round). Pocic was used as, you guessed it, a tackle early in his career and at guard, before settling into center. He was a center primarily in college, and the team drafted him for his versatility, so I will call him a legitimate interior OL pick. Outside of him, no center was taken before the 6th round, and just three players overall. This, despite having a pretty bad run of center play for the last decade or so.
The top picks spent on guard were Damien Lewis, Rees Odhiambo (who could easily be counted as a tackle), and John Moffitt, who were all taken in the 3rd round.
Tight end hit rate has been decent, but never earlyNick Vannett is the highest pick Schneider has made on a tight end (3rd round). He also is one of the worst. Colby Parkinson, Will Dissly, Luke Willson, and Anthony McCoy were all solid picks in the 4th through 6th rounds. There are great tight ends in this class. Some are even mocking one to go to Seattle in the first round. That would very out of character for Schneider.
Wide receiver is highly valued by SchneiderNo position has been drafted more often by Schneider than wide receiver. He has taken 16, and that doesn’t include undrafted free agents like Doug Baldwin Jr. and Jermaine Kearse. He has spent more 2nd round picks (4) on this position than any other, and almost all of them have had a decent return. D.K. Metcalf, Golden Tate, and Paul Richardson have been decent-to-great. Dee Eskridge is the outlier. Tyler Lockett in the 3rd round was also a smash. Fourth round and later has been almost all bad. David Moore (7th round) is probably their best receiver pick after the 3rd round. This is a thin receiver class, which coupled with another Schneider draft tendency I’ll cover later, could mean another high round pick on this position.
Edge is arguably the most valued position, nose tackle might be the leastSeattle has spent two 1st (L.J. Collier, Bruce Irvin) and three 2nds (Boye Mafe, Darrell Taylor, Frank Clark) on the defensive end spot. The position is changing a bit in the 3-4 defense, but the premium on edge rushing remains. Contrast that with the fact you could argue the Seahawks have never spent a single draft pick on a nose tackle. Maybe you could consider Jimmy Staten (5th round) in that category, but he’s certainly not a 3-4 nose tackle. Schneider has not placed a real value on run defenders on the line. Even his free agent strategy has been to get cheap veterans (Colin Cole, Ahtyba Rubin, Al Woods, etc.) for this skill set. Those of us who may be enamored with the Mazi Smith and Siaki Ika types in the first two rounds are hoping for a dramatic shift in strategy from Schneider. This points more to the Cameron Young types on day three.
The love of edge could push up the values of guys like Will McDonald IV, and other edge players if Will Anderson Jr. does not fall in their laps at the fifth pick.
Corner might be the strength of this front office and coaching staffNo position might have extracted more return on investment for Seattle than cornerback under Schneider and Pete Carroll. The team has found 11 (!!) starters at this position despite spending only one draft pick before the 4th round, and that was a 3rd on Shaquill Griffin. The hit rate has been remarkably high, even if a number of the players were mediocre or below average starters. Ugo Amadi and Tre Flowers are not picks any Seahawk fan would celebrate, but they accomplished more than Chris Harper or Amara Darboh ever did. This draft has more quality corners than any in recent memory. Seattle has picked a whopping 15 corners over the years. Don’t be surprised if they wait until day three to dip into this talented corner pool.
Schneider strategiesThere have also been some patterns to how Schneider has approached pulling players off the board through the years, with varying results.
Overdraft thin positionsMost fans just think about best player available across any position or even best player at a specific position of need for Seattle. Schneider has repeatedly overweighted another factor, which is how many draftable players are there at various position groups of need. For example, part of the reason he took an L.J. Collier in the first round, and Ethan Pocic, Justin Britt, Malik McDowell, and Boye Mafe in the second, is that he knew the team had a need at the position and there was such a big dropoff in talent at that spot that if he did not pick those players there, he would be left likely unable to address that need with any confidence in the draft.
On the surface, that makes sense. I have been more critical of this aspect of Schneider’s strategy than any other, largely because it has forced some really mediocre players too far up the Seattle draft board while letting far more talented players slip past them. Last year was the first time this seemed more muted. We saw Seattle take the most talented player, independent of need, in most spots. Low and behold, it was one of their best drafts.
Based on some interviews, it sounds like Schneider has done some self-scouting and concluded they overweighted “need” in some past drafts. That would show up here. There is a limit. You do not want them drafting five receivers just because they are the highest on the board. Need clearly factors in, but hopefully less than it has at times in the past.
Trade back early, trade up lateFans and media members talk about Schneider as a trade back guy. The truth is that while he has done that in the first round quite a bit, he has traded up quite a bit in rounds two through seven. When Schneider only sees 14-15 guys as round one picks, and Seattle has been picking in the 20s, he likes to accumulate more draft capital by moving back. That said, we have not seen him trade back in the top ten. We have never seen him trade up in the first round. He does like to use the large number of picks they have to move up and get a guy who is falling in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th round like they did for Metcalf, Lockett, and others.
What it all meansFans would be wise to keep these Schneider tendencies in mind when determining what is most likely to happen in this upcoming draft for Seattle instead of simply focusing on what they want their favorite team to do.
For example, Jeff Simmons and I have become enthusiastic about a possible plan to trade back from the 5th pick if Anderson is not there and if the team is not interested in Jalen Carter or a quarterback, and take someone like Pete Skoronski to be a Pro Bowl guard, and then take a great center and create a true strength with a talented and young offensive line. Is it realistic that Schneider would:
- Trade back in the top 10 (never done)
- Pick a guard in the top 10 (never drafted one before the 3rd round)
- Pick a center in the first 37 picks (never done, and only one before the 6th round)
Probably not. That does not make it a bad idea. It just is probably wasted breath.
Would they take a talented tight end like Michael Mayer in the first round? Probably not. But is it likely they would jump on a receiver like Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba if one fell to #20? Seems a fair bet given how they have valued that position.
Use this article as a reference to judge how realistic your mock drafts are. It may help you brace for frustration on draft day instead of getting blindsided.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 256: Twiddling Our Thumbs as We Anxiously Await the Draft
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 255: NFL Draft a Month Away
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 254: Bobby is a Seahawk! Let’s Discuss Impact and More Mock Drafts
Sentiment does not win Super Bowls. Chemistry can be a big ingredient, but even that is overstated. You might be surprised how variable the chemistry of the same group of ambitious young men can be depending on how much winning or losing is happening on the field. It is easy to get swayed by nostalgia. You remember who the player used to be on the field. You remember who the player is as a person. General Managers cannot afford to overweight what once was as they plan for what will be. Every now and then, the good vibes of reviving the past line up well with what your football team needs right now. Signing Bobby Wagner is one of those moments.
The future Hall of Fame linebacker comes back to Seattle after a poorly handled exit and one year hiatus. He signed a deal reported to be $7M for one year. The vast majority of Seahawks fans, media, current and former Seahawks players, celebrated the move. A small minority criticized it. I see where everyone is coming from, but see this as the move Seattle needed to make based on a variety of factors.
Wagner is someone who immediately elevates the confidence of everyone in the building. He is the definition of a “professional” athlete. He is one of the best men you will ever meet. His level of play is still high enough to be clearly better than the other options Seattle had to play inside linebacker at this point in the offseason (more on that in a bit). He still makes plays in the run game and as a blitzer. He still reads offenses as well, or better, than any linebacker in the game. He still can alert players around him to what is coming and help players prepare for the week ahead. He is still a voice that will steady frayed nerves when things are going the wrong way during a game.
The Seahawks are not building their new defense around Wagner. Realistically, he would not have been on the shopping list if Jordyn Brooks had not been hurt. With Brooks out until probably mid-season, and most likely not the same player when he does get back in the first year from an ACL injury, Wagner is a great option to step in.
Should Brooks come back sooner and be ready to contribute, he can slide to weakside linebacker and pair with Wagner for what would be an upgrade over what Seattle ran our there last year, at least against the run.
Wagner also increases the chances that my least favorite off-season move by Seattle so far, the signing of Devin Bush, will work out. I see Bush as a possible downgrade from Cody Barton, and that’s coming from someone who had no interest in bringing Barton back.
People keep pointing to the Bush ACL injury and that maybe he will be healthy now. That happened in 2020. We are well beyond the timeline where we can expect additional recovery. It is usually one season after the player returns that marks when they are truly back. That would have been last year for Bush. Instead, he was benched and pulled from their nickel and dime packages before that.
No Steelers fan was sorry to see him go. The hope is that putting him in a room with a guy like Wagner could change his career. He will likely be asked to do different things in this defense as well, and I would expect Seattle to add to the pile in the draft to give him some competition. I like Jon Rhattigan, who is entering his “year after returning” season from an ACL. He seems like more of a middle linebacker, though, so it’s not clear to me he would play alongside Wagner.
We will find out the details of the contract, but it would not surprise me if the actual number for Wagner is in the $3-5M range, with incentives that could lift it to $7M. I just do not see any other free agent option that would provide the value Wagner provides. Seattle almost had to make this work. It could have been different had they approached this position with more aggression earlier.
To that end, let’s run through each position group real quick to assess and recap what they did.
Linebackers (Grade = C-)Since we have already been on this topic, we can start here. There was a deep, young, and talented free agent class for linebackers. The market was also pretty cheap. John Schneider admitted that the team was counting on the “numbers” at the position to allow them to focus elsewhere first and were caught off guard by how quickly some players took deals and were off the market.
The ideal for me here would have been two younger players with proven track records who could be part of the defense for 2-3 years or more. Guys I liked:
- Germaine Pratt $6.75 APY
- Alex Singleton $6M APY
- David Long $5M APY
- Azeez Al-Shaair $5M APY
- Leighton Vander Esch $4M APY
Some combination of two players from above and a draft pick would have been A+ material. Instead, Seattle got a guy in Bush who must be a very different player than he has been and an older player who has more age-related limitations, who will not be a long-term answer. Now, if it was Bobby and one of the first four guys on that list, I’d be good as well. I really do like Bobby for this specific season.
There is a small contingent of Seahawks fans who are upset Seattle “lost” Barton to Washington. That guy will never be more than a mediocre linebacker. He was not the answer for making this defense better. I would rather risk getting worse than stick with someone who you already know is not the answer.
What we cannot know is whether any of these guys were really an option for Seattle. Fans can point to cost comparisons and say, “Look! We could have had him for less!” The reality is some guys have no interest in coming to Seattle or playing in this system or are committed to where their family wants to live or the coaching staffs they already know. Without that context, I have to grade down Seattle for misjudging the free agent market and missing out some more clear upgrades at a position in dire need of help.
There are some options here in the draft, and I expect Seattle to consider a variety of players among their first five picks, including the potential of shifting a guy like Nolan Smith from DE to LB. Someone like Jack Campbell is interesting, but he profiles more as redundant with Wagner and would then force Brooks to be a full-time WLB once he returns. Drew Sanders is more of a pass rusher than a true linebacker, but is interesting. I am intrigued by Dorian Williams, who would be a nice compliment to Wagner and Bush given that he excels in coverage.
Defensive line (Grade = B+)The signing of Dre’mont Jones was the surprise of the offseason. Seattle paid a hefty price, which is something they have not done since the days of Sidney Rice (2011). Jones is an ascending player, who is disruptive on the interior and has some positional flexibility. He is a good piece for that defense, and likely more valuable than anyone Seattle has played on the defensive line for the last 3-4 seasons.
It is important to not fall for free agency hype. It is rare for guys who get paid that much early in free agency to ever live up to their contracts. Jones has proven he is a great complimentary player. He has not shown he is a blue chip centerpiece who you can build a defense around and who opponents are altering their game plans to account for.
I still like the move because Seattle has screwed this position group up so bad that they had almost no choice but to overpay someone to help turn things around. Jones is young and good and hungry. They paid what the market required. The defense got better as soon as he signed. Do not overthink it.
But, do not think that is anywhere close to enough.
The Jarran Reed signing was a letdown. He is a fine run defending interior lineman. I much preferred someone like Greg Gaines, who is five years younger, cost less, and offers something in the pass rush as well.
We know the Seahawks tried to get Zach Allen in addition to Jones. That would have been really exciting. I think Seattle was right to prioritize Jones over Allen, but we will see.
Moving on from Quinton Jefferson, Poona Ford, and L.J. Collier were all encouraging steps. Shelby Harris would help this team, and still may find his way back depending on salary cap and how the draft goes. Al Woods was great, but did play through an injury last year and fell off quite a bit. He may not be ready to contribute at the same level any more. I do not see Seattle bringing him back given they only saves about $3.5M by releasing him. You do not usually cut players to save a couple million (factoring in what it would cost to sign him again). Harris is the more typical sign-back situation, where he was up near $10M in savings.
The big question for this group is who plays nose tackle and who pairs with Jones as an end? Jalen Carter is a name that will not go away. I do not think his off-field issues would have scared Seattle away, but showing up 9 pounds heavier and out of shape for his pro day really cuts against what Pete Carroll and John Schneider look for in a player. If they have enough information to feel good about adding him, that would be a big deal. I am guessing he is not an option for them at #5.
There are a number of other names to watch here:
- Calijah Kancey: super disruptive athlete who will be off some boards due to very short arms
- Bryan Bresee: crazy athlete who has not demonstrated much in the way of playmaking on the field
- Mazi Smith: True nose tackle with freak athleticism, who could help against the run and possibly as a pass rusher
- Siaki Ika: Classic bowling ball nose tackle who could start day one in the middle of the line
Will Anderson is the consensus ideal name to fall to Seattle, and it could happen if either Arizona surprises by preferring Tyree Wilson or trades out for a team that wants to jump Indy for a QB. Anderson has the highest floor and a high ceiling. The draft almost instantly becomes a success if Seattle adds this guy to the mix.
Wilson is a guy who I struggle to see in this defense, and I’m not personally a huge fan of slower pass rushers who rely on power.
Others:
- Lukas Van Ness: I think he is a questionable fit in this defense as well as he is too light to play 3-4 end, and too heavy to play OLB
- Smith: super freaky athlete, but there is some question about whether he is more a linebacker
- Myles Murphy: Somewhat similar to Bresee in that his athletic prowess did not always show on film
- Will McDonald IV: Watch out for this guy. He might be the best edge addition for Seattle outside of Anderson, and could fall to their second round pick
- Adetomiwa Adebawore: A 3-4 end, Adebawore has eye-popping athletic characteristics, but his play on the field has not matched it, so teams would have to do a lot of projecting here
- Tuli Tuipulotu: Another 3-4 end, Tuipulotu led the FBS in sacks and is someone I get excited about if Kancey is not around for Seattle at #20.
Secondary (Grade: A-)This was a place where Seattle had some younger players step forward in 2022. Tariq Woolen looks like a top-shelf starter. Coby Bryant made plays in the nickel and improved in coverage as the year went on. Ryan Neal showed he can be a quality starter in this league. Even Michael Jackson was solid starter.
Add in veterans in Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, and you might think you don’t need to add anything here.
Seattle surprised just about everyone by not only adding to this group, but paying starter money to do it at a position that already has a ton of money committed. Julian Love was a do-everything player for the Giants. He was a corner in college, and played nickel, deep safety, and box safety for New York.
He was the captain of the defense, respected by players, and solid in coverage and against the run. He’s a quality player. His versatility raises some questions about who will be most impacted by his addition.
It is safe to assume Diggs will remain in his role as deep safety. Neal was a guy who some thought was an All-Pro level player at the other safety spot. Bryant should not feel comfortable at nickel, but it would be surprising if Seattle spent the money they did to bring in a guy to block a second-year guy from playing.
My best guess is the team has either already decided to move on from Jamal Adams, thus saving $8.5M in cap space (which they need, by the way, to even afford Wagner’s new contract) if they designate him a post-June 1st cut, or they are not counting on him playing for them anytime soon.
His quad tendon injury is not like an ACL. Return timetables are far harder to predict and some players never return to their former selves. Maybe he comes back mid-year. If Adams is not playing, then Neal and Love make a great combination to add to Diggs for a three safety look the team played a lot last year.
Perhaps, Love will play some weakside linebacker the way so many are predicting Adams would do if he was healthy. That would make the Bush signing a lot less concerning as he would be on the field far less.
I also think it could become some competition for Bryant, and maybe the team will like different guys for different matchups.
If Adams does come back and can play for an extended period of time, he may also even get some outside linebacker snaps to rush the passer, which he did so well in 2021.
The best approach here is to assume Adams will not contribute meaningfully to the season. If he does, great. If not, Seattle now does not have to hold their breath about the safety position the way they have the last two seasons.
I think Seattle could still draft a free safety later in the draft as a future replacement for Diggs, but they are likely done at that spot. That means some really awesome players like Brian Branch are probably off the board.
I do think cornerback should be a position Seattle targets. Jackson was fine, but the team could create a true position of strength by adding another stud rookie across from Woolen. This draft is overflowing with quality cornerbacks.
A few names that could be good fits based on scheme fit and where they could go:
- Julius Brents: 6’3″ with a 41.5″ vertical and over 11′ broad jump, Brents is a great athlete who the Seahawks have already shown interest in. He could be an option late second or third
- Eli Ricks: 6’2″ and played at Alabama where Seahawks secondary coach, Karl Brooks coached. Ricks is a classic press corner
- Kelee Ringo: 6’2″ and mocked at a massive variance from first round to third. If he slides to late second or third, Seattle would have to think about it
- Garrett Williams: On the shorter side, but Williams could be a guy who slides due to recovering from an ACL injury. He might have been a first round pick or early second as an elite cover corner. Some compare him to Devon Witherspoon, who is the consensus top corner in the draft
Quarterback (Grade: A+)Bringing back Geno Smith was seen as the most predictable move of the Seahawks offseason, but the contract he signed was surprising to most. It would be easy to credit Schneider for getting a great deal, but I credit Smith, who is as genuine as they come and has put his money where his mouth is unlike other quarterbacks who chosen to maximize their earnings over increasing the odds the team maximizes the talent around them.
You don’t add a Love or maybe even a Jones if Smith demands more. Alternatively, you let him walk and are stuck paying the like of Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett to play quarterback and force yourself to draft a QB early.
The signing of Smith to the deal he signed gives the Seahawks maximum flexibility at the position, and I am in the camp that thinks Smith can improve on his record-setting season last year.
Smith was a top seven quarterback. Even if he stays at that level, you are getting a top 10 quarterback for a contract that is outside the top ten for the position.
Smith played as a top four quarterback for much of the season, and I think he can be that again this year. With Aaron Rodgers moving to the AFC and Tom Brady retiring, it is fair to ask if Smith might be the best quarterback in the conference. Yes, I said it.
Jalen Hurts could be the guy. Dak Prescott is in the conversation. Kirk Cousins doesn’t do it for me. Jared Goff is not the guy. Kyler Murray is definitely not the guy. Maybe a healthy Brock Purdy does it. Justin Fields is a runner until proven otherwise. Daniel Jones is not it. The Panthers are about to draft C.J. Stroud in all likelihood, and he may be a fast riser. With Houston, Indy, and possibly the Raiders drafting the other QBs, that could further the imbalance with the conferences.
Smith has what it takes to be the best of the bunch. Give him better line play and another weapon on offense and things get really interesting.
I would much prefer a rookie drafted on day three to be the backup over Drew Lock, but his contract is very short on guarantees, so Seattle gets a good grade from me there since their options are not really diminished and they do not need to force a draft pick.
So why all the selfies?I see this position differently than a large number of Seahawks fans. Smith can be your guy for the next three years at least. You can be adding younger QBs behind him to see if you strike gold, or you can go all-in to get one of the young guys later once you have built up the rest of the roster. That approach maximizes the benefit of a rookie QB contract.
Even with the good deal Smith signed, you basically shave off at least one year of the rookie QB window by paying the QB position that much. If someone you really love falls to you, then you have to consider it. The only player who I think fits that bill is Stroud, and there is no way he falls to Seattle.
Everyone gets excited about Anthony Richardson’s athleticism. There’s a lot to be excited about. There is also the most risk. If Seattle picks a QB to sit behind Geno who flames out, they have doomed themselves to the mediocre middle.
Then why are the Seahawks being so bold about their interest in the young quarterbacks? Why are they saying publicly that they are staying close to these guys and taking selfies posted to the team account?
I have heard people guess it is because they are just having fun with the process or that they are trolling Russell Wilson and his crew for having a chance to draft his replacement with the pick they got for him or that they have legitimate interest. I don’t really buy any of that.
This front office has been incredibly consistent and remarkably vigilant in protecting information about who they want in the draft. They do not publicize this kind of thing, especially for a draft pick as valuable as #5 and at a position as important as quarterback.
The only logical reason for them to put on this media blitz is to convince other teams they want a quarterback so those teams either feel the need to jump them to the 3rd pick to get their guy or trade with Seattle.
I believe Seattle is all-in on Will Anderson, and I think they are doing everything they can to try and manifest his fall to them. Barring that, I would bet they want to trade back and add another second round pick. Either of those reasons check all the logical boxes.
The others all indicate this group has either dramatically changed their approach or have gotten careless. Neither seems plausible.
Skill players (Grade: C+)Seattle has not added a running back, receiver, or tight end. They get a slightly positive grade here because they did not bring back marginal players like Travis Homer and did not overpay for a really bad free agent receiver free agency group.
It would have been nice to have Rashaad Penny back, but there are plenty of veteran running backs they can sign later and lots of young backs to consider in the draft. I think the 4th or 5th round is the sweet spot there. I would love to pair Chris Warren-clone Zach Charbonnet with Kenneth Walker, but he will probably go too early.
Receiver is a spot where many are confused why Seattle is getting players mocked to them as early as the first round. Tyler Lockett is 30. Even if he sticks around a few more seasons, the team needs a more dynamic third receiving target.
It would be ideal to add a true slot receiver who can be a reliable third down connection for Smith. He’s a smart player who could really take advantage of another smart guy in that spot. That could really free up Lockett and Metcalf on the outside.
The tight end room is a bigger secret issue. Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant are in the last years of their deals and Will Dissly is coming back from another injury that they thought might need surgery but decided it did not. None of these guys has shown true #1 tight end upside.
This draft is full of some really talented tight ends. I would absolutely love to see Darnell Washington picked. He’s a massive young man who almost acts as an extra offensive tackle, but also is a skilled athlete with good hands. He instantly makes the offense tougher.
Michael Mayer is someone who will probably go in the first round and is a tenacious blocker and physical player with the ball in his hands. He reminds me a bit of a slower George Kittle.
Dalton Kincaid and Luke Musgrave are more the receiving tight ends who could pile up the numbers. Either might be more valuable than some of the slot receivers the team could draft.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be an ideal addition, but he likely won’t last until #20. Zay Flowers is also interesting, but I’m not convinced his draft position will match where the Seahawks would value him.
Offensive line (Grade: B+)This is a group that is on the cusp of being very good, depending on how the Seahawks approach the draft and who falls to them. Signing Evan Brown was a great hedge as he can play either guard or center, and gives them a fine fallback starter if they don’t get their center in this draft (they will though!).
Austin Blythe was not the answer. Brown is more stout than Blythe and is young. Signing Phil Haynes was smart as well since he was essentially a starter last year and played okay. They did not overcommit to him.
This leaves options open in a draft with some really interesting interior line options.
The guy I salivate the most over is John Michael Schmitz. He is a junkyard dog in the middle of the line. He is smart and tough. He is solid in pass protecting and gritty in run blocking. I think the Seahawks like him as much as I do, and it would not shock me if they felt like they had to take him at #20 to be sure they add him to the roster.
Outside of Will Anderson, there may be no player who could make this team better, faster, and for longer than Schmitz. Getting a great young center to pair with those tackles would be huge.
Even if they lose out on Schmitz, there are guys like Luke Wypler and Olusegun Oluwatimi who could be good options. Wypler is tough and smart and played at a big school against top competition. Joe Tippman may be an option as well.
The home run is if the Seahawks exit with a center and a guard.
Most fans and analysts know the Seahawks weakness is on defense, so the focus is there. What folks might be missing is that Seattle could be close to creating a real strength by investing in the offensive line.
Remember the first half of the Seahawks playoff game against the 49ers. Remember what the Eagles did to the 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. Limiting the 49ers pass rush by running effectively and being a solid pass protection group is a great game plan against that stacked defense. Your best chance to do that is by having an overpowering offensive line.
Put Schmitz in the middle and add a guy like Cody Mauch at guard, or maybe even Steve Avila or O’Cyrus Torrence, or the craziest option, which would involved adding massive 6’8″ 374 lb Dawand Jones to the group. The Jones scenario, which we should at least consider since the Seahawks have shown interest, involves either the crazy idea of him sliding inside to be a massive guard or having Abe Lucas slide inside.
The point is, I would rather have a guard to compete with Haynes and a center to compete with Brown than just one or the other. Do that with two of your first five picks, and there is reason to be really excited.
Overall (Grade: B+)I like what Seattle has done to this point. My biggest issues are with how they have handled linebacker and the question marks on the defensive line. They were opportunistic in adding Love and were bold in getting Jones. They were wise at the QB position. The offensive line is primed to take a big step forward. This team is not clearly better than it was last year, yet. They are well positioned to follow the best talent available on their draft board and have back-to-back terrific drafts. That is almost always the only way to really improve the outlook of your club.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 253: Free Agency Buzz & We’re a Month Away from The Draft
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 252: Free Agency Kickoff & New Live Mock Draft
Let me start with an important caveat: this is not a very good free agent class.
There are very few players with an even a Pro Bowl ceiling that are available, and the best position groups available in this year’s market are two of the least valued in the league from a monetary standpoint (running back & off-ball linebacker). A lot of the best players that were supposed to hit free agency were either franchise tagged or already received extensions over the last year such as the 2019 WR class of non first rounders (AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel).
From a Seahawks perspective, I wouldn’t be expecting the team to find the next Cliff Avril or Michael Bennett or make a splashy addition like Sidney Rice. Those big impact players will come via the draft. It is more of a meat and potatoes class.
The team still has some cap space after doing the Geno Smith contract, but not a ton given how much needs to be allocated to their upcoming draft class. They still have some work to do if they want to make a big move.
There’s stil levers to create significant cap room.
1) cut or extend Shelby Harris
2) extend Nwosu/ would drop his cap number a lot.
3) restructure the adams or diggs deal
4) Mone injury settlement
5) QJeff and woods have easy outs— Jeff Simmons (@realjeffsimmons) March 9, 2023
With the tampering period getting underway on Monday, I decided to poll a lot of the same sources who provided good intel from the Sr. Bowl (Geno’s contract, Carr to New Orleans, Carolina moving up to first pick) to give you a summary of some things I am hearing entering the new league year:
- There is going to be some sticker shock with the price of the top-of-the-market right tackles, especially with the cap at $225 million. A few of league insiders are expecting former Jaguars RT Jawaan Taylor, hardly an All Pro player, to get a contract north of $16 million per year while solid players like Mike McGlinchey, and Kaleb McGary could come close to $15 million per year. It really emphasizes the surplus value the Seahawks have with Abraham Lucas, last year’s third round draft pick, having a cap hit of $1.22 million for this season.
- The Seahawks are not expected to be in the market for Javon Hargrave, a player Real Hawk Talk co-host Evan Hill strongly advocated to sign the last time he was on the market. With Daron Payne being franchise tagged, and this class being especially weak at edge rusher, Hargrave is in line to get one of the biggest contracts on the market. He could come close to $20 million per year APY.
- GM John Schneider will be prioritizing two-gapping defensive linemen who have 3-4 experience. I heard the Seahawks really like Zach Allen from Arizona, who would be a great fit as a 3-4 end for Seattle, but they could be priced out of his market. DreMont Jones is a player I really like in this DT class, but he’s going to be far too expensive. A more realistic option for the Seahawks will be A’Shawn Robinson from the Rams. He is a really big body that is primarily a run stuffer, which will keep his cost down. Another name I have heard in connection with the Seahawks is Greg Gaines, another former Rams DT that has a little more pass-rushing upside than Robinson, but has been a fairly productive in this defensive system.
- Pete Carroll’s team will be involved in the inside linebacker market, the strength and deepest position in available, so there will be good value opportunities. I don’t expect the Seahawks to shop at the top of the market there (Tremaine Edmunds, Bobby Okereke will do better than expected), but it is a buyers’ market with a lot of potential good value signings. This is a priority with Jordyn Brooks ACL injury. The names I have heard connected to Seattle include Drue Tranquill, who played in a similar scheme with Brandon Staley, Eric Kendricks, and I heard there is some buzz about Germaine Pratt. It is telling how long the list is below and Cody Barton isn’t even on there.
The FA LB market is loaded:
Tremaine Edmunds
Bobby Wagner
Lavonte David
David Long
Eric Kendricks
Bobby Okereke
TJ Edwards
Germaine Pratt
Drue Tranquill
Leighton Vander Esch
Azeez Al-Shaair
Rashaan Evans
Kaden Elliss
Kwon Alexander
Devin Bush
Alex Anzalone
Kyzir White
… & more— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) March 12, 2023
- As Schneider admitted earlier this week, there is mutual interest in bringing back franchise legend Bobby Wagner, but for Seattle, it simply comes down to his price point. The Cowboys could express interest if they lose Leighton Vander Esch.
- Another reason Geno Smith took such a unique contract is there didn’t seem to be a huge outside market for him. Tampa Bay, who was one of the teams I heard connected to Geno at the Senior Bowl, is taking a step back kind of season and there is a lot of buzz about Baker Mayfield and Drew Lock being their primary targets. Lock has a lot of support from new OC Dave Canales. I expect him to want to end up somewhere with a clearer path to playing time.
- Multiple executive sources emphasized this is the worst wide receiver crop of free agents they have seen since the league introduced free agency in the mid-90s. Jacobi Meyers and DJ Chark are the top names on the market, which is why the Bears were so adamant on getting back DJ Moore in the trade with Carolina. Meyers could pass $16 million APY because of the lack of supply. It isn’t a particularly good draft class for receivers either, so I wouldn’t expect the Seahawks to find too many intriguing options as free agents. Robert Woods got more money from the Houston Texans than they would have been willing to pay. It makes more sense to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick at that spot.
2023 Upcoming WR Free Agents:
– Nelson Agholor
– Sterling Shepard
– DJ Chark
– Randall Cobb
– Marvin Jones
– Byron Pringle
– Allen Lazard
– Jakobi Meyers
– Juju Smith-Schuster
– Mack Hollins
– Mecole Hardman
– Noah Brown
– Parris Campbell
– Greg Dortch
– Darius Slayton— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 9, 2023
- One of the weaker positions available is another premium position at EDGE. There are two names I have heard connected to the Seahawks as edge rushers, but I remain skeptical they make a move there. The two names were Bud Dupree, who has a lot of history in a 3-4 defense, and Leonard Floyd from the Rams. They are both very good scheme fits, and Dupree has a history with the Seahawks’ new pass rush coach, who is beloved according to league insiders. The Seahawks already have good numbers at the EDGE spot (Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe) and it is a very good EDGE draft class coming up.
- Adding to that, the possibility of Will Anderson, the draft’s top-rated EDGE player falling to Seattle became more realistic with the Bears’ trade down to No. 9. Anderson certainly remains an option or Arizona, but a lot of league sources are expecting the Cardinals to move off the No. 3 overall pick. They have a long way to go in their roster build, and there should be very high appeal in getting in front of Indianapolis. One team I keep hearing is the Las Vegas Raiders, who were in the mix to move up to the No. 1 spot. The Raiders could sign a vet QB like Jimmy Garoppolo and still move up for a QB. If the Raiders make that move, we could have four QBs with the first four picks in the draft.
- It remains unclear what the Seahawks plan to do at the center position following Austin Blythe’s retirement. I have heard the Seahawks do like a few different centers in this draft class, but likely will want another veteran option to not force them to chase the spot. They could explore what Ryan Kelly will cost in a trade from Indianapolis, who is reportedly available. He makes approx. $9 million in 2023 and $11 million in 2024. A draft pick would cost a lot less.
- Rashaad Penny is not expected to land a big contract. The position is loaded with different options (David Montgomery, Jamaal Williams, Devin Singletary, Alex Mattison, Kareem Hunt, Damien Harris, Miles Sanders among many others) and Penny’s durability will keep his price very modest. Penny appeared on the verge of a career breakout before suffering another injury this past season. His market could be a one-year, $3 million deal.
- I do not expect the Seahawks to bring back Shaquill Griffin as option to play across Tariq Woolen. Frank Clark feels like a long shot as well. He is an odd fit in a 3-4 defense and ideal as a 4-3 end.
- The Dolphins restructured a bunch of salaries earlier this week, a sign from other agents that they are looking to make a splashy move on defense to give Vic Fangio some more pieces to work with. As I was writing this, CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson reported they are in deep talks for Jalen Ramsey. That makes a lot of sense. Vic Fangio will have a lot of pieces to work with with Ramsey, Bradley Chubb, Christian Wilkins, and Jevon Phillips. They also have Xavien Howard at cornerback.
- Speaking of cornerbacks, there will a lot of corners getting big-money deals this week. Among the names expected to really cash in include Byron Murphy, Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Rock Ya Sin, and Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano of ESPN reported there will be a good deal for Cameron Sutton as well. This surprised me given the good class of cornerbacks in this draft, but the agents are insisting all these corners have a lot of interest.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 251: EMERGENCY POD! Geno Smith Signs + Live Mock Drafts
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 250: The Off-Season Grind Begins
The Senior Bowl – like it or not – is one of the flagpole events in the offseason calendar.
While John Schneider, and the Seahawks have had some of their biggest draft whiffs come from the Senior Bowl, they had a signifcantly better haul last year, landing Abraham Lucas, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, and Coby Bryant in the first four rounds of the draft.
This year’s crop at the Senior Bowl didn’t feature any of the top quarterback or defensive line prospects, but there were a number of interesting players that could fit as draft options for the Seahawks anywhere from Rounds 2-to-5.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to make it down to Mobile, but that didn’t stop me from doing my research. I was able to poll a handful of team sources, agency sources, and media members to get a sense what was happening during practice week to gather intel as we are approaching one of the biggest off-seasons in Seahawks history
- Every person I spoke with expects Geno Smith to end up back with the Seahawks, but the question remains how much. I ran Brad Spielberger’s projection (four years, $150 million) at Pro Football Focus for Geno Smith’s projected free agent contract by a few agents, and they thought the number was a bit on the high side. Brad does an outstanding job with his these, but multiple league sources (not with the Seahawks) view Geno’s situation was more of an outlier situation, given his lack of track record and age. The consensus I got from asking around was very similar to what Seahawks beat writer Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, who eloquently wrote earlier this week Geno “will be a unique case, and won’t be as simple as using previous quarterback contracts as benchmarks.” One league executive sourced in Dugar’s article mentioned above had the ceiling of his average annual value closer to $30 million, which is very similar to the range I had heard. I would guess closer to the franchise tag number.
Pro Bowl QB Geno Smith told SiriusXM NFL Radio that contract talks with the Seahawks are underway and the prospects of the two sides reaching a deal are “looking very good”, via @BradyHenderson:https://t.co/ZBtldNOcv7
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 4, 2023
- Unlike Geno where I had difficulty finding a non-Seattle match for him, based on sources I spoke with, teams are gearing up to make a run at Derek Carr once he is ultimately released or traded by the Raiders. The Jets have Carr on a shortlist of veteran quarterbacks that includes Aaron Rogers, per sources, and the New Orleans Saints (who have some cap maneuvering to do) have Carr as a target. Tampa Bay could look at Carr as well. New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen was with the Raiders when they drafted Carr.
- A lot of league insiders are expecting the Seahawks to lose assistant head coach Sean Desai to the Denver Broncos. Desai is rumoured to have gotten a good recommendation from Vic Fangio, who was one of Payton’s initial DC targets before he took the job with the Denver Broncos. Fangio going back to Denver as DC would have a bit of a weird given Fangio was recently the head coach there. Desai is competing with Brian Flores for the DC role in Denver (Flores also has a shot at the Cardinals’ head coach job and is a top candidate in Minnesota, where Desai dropped out) barring a surprise candidate emerging. Desai came into the league with Fangio with the Chicago Bears and is a big proponent of his defensive scheme. He is said to be one of the best teachers in the industry.
From NFL Now: The #Broncos requested permission to speak with Brian Flores and Sean Desai for their DC job. pic.twitter.com/8Lt6fMcs0Y
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 3, 2023
- Just about everyone I spoke with – both from the agent and team side – are anticipating the Chicago Bears to move the No. 1 overall pick. It is just a matter of when. The obvious candidate mentioned was the Indianapolis Colts, who are still three weeks into their scattered coaching search, but a few team execs were projecting a move up from the Carolina Panthers, especially after hiring Frank Reich as head coach, who had difficulty finding stability at QB at the end of his tenure in Indianapolis. This could put the Seahawks either in an advantageous draft position – either to auction off the No. 5 pick to a QB-needy team that misses out on the top 2 quarterbacks, or be in position to draft Will Anderson or Jalen Carter at No. 5 if three QBs go in the top four. One other team mentioned to me that could be a sneaky option for a draft day QB move-up is the Tennessee Titans. They have a new general manager and despite the success Mike Vrabel has had there, there is some concern from ownership whether their roster has a big enough ceiling with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.
- One league source wondered if Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker could be a quarterback target for the Seahawks, if Seattle goes defensive line with their first draft pick. Some execs expect Schneider to take a QB in the top five, however. Hooker, who is more likely a Day 2 pick, would pair well with more of a bridge starter such as Geno Smith since he could basically have a redshirt year. Hooker was playing at the level of a first round pick this past season before an ACL injury knocked him for the season in November. Hooker stylistically is quite similar to Geno, but the downside is he is already 25 years old. The injured QB was in Mobile this week meeting with teams since he is not ready to practice, but is said to be making good progress, and his leadership skills, maturity drew good reviews from multiple people I spoke with.
Former Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker, who tore his left ACL on Nov. 19, is off crutches and told me he should be running by end of March and ready for training camp. He’s at the @seniorbowl to speak with teams — and says he’s still the best player in the draft. More on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/lYZpB6jbFV
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 30, 2023
- Schneider was up front watching the 1-on-1 drills between offensive and defensive line, which is a promising sign given the Seahawks’ deficiencies in the trenches this past. With four picks in the top 60, this should be a priority in both free agency and the draft. According to a few media members I polled, the standout performers that could appeal to the Seahawks include Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz (early Day 2 pick), TCU guard Steve Avila, Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton, Georgia Tech defensive end Keion White, who was shockingly listed as the No. 8 overall player on his top 150 prospects list that came out this week.
91st percentile pass rush grade in 2022 via @PFF https://t.co/3gz1hxmKJ6
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) February 2, 2023
- Of all the prospects at the Senior Bowl, Schmitz would one of the ideal targets for the Seahawks. The Seahawks have been looking for a long-term center since Max Unger was traded, and Schmitz would be a Day 1 starter in Andy Dickerson’s scheme. Hard to be the most physical team, as Schneider mentioned, with a center that is constantly losing at the point of attack. He was one of the best performers, if not the best player, in Mobile.
Minnesota IOL John Michael Schmitz has been clamping dudes all week!Unbelievable practice energy. Love how he’s taken ownership in the OL. He helped himself a ton in Mobile. #RatedRookie #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE pic.twitter.com/VuQ52gpek1
— Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) February 2, 2023
- A lot of the agents I connected with believe the Seahawks are well positioned cap wise to take on a Smith multi-year contract, where the year 1 cap hit should fall somewhere around $14-16 million. That numbers could be created in cap space almost entirely by releasing Gabe Jackson, Shelby Harris or Quinton Jefferson, which would still leave the Seahawks room to pursue free agents.
This is part 2 of Braxton Kendall’s offseason review. Check out part 1 here: Seahawks Offseason Roster Review Part 1: Priority Free Agents – Hawk Blogger
Welcome to part 2 of this Seahawks offseason roster review. Last segment I went over the list 34 of pending Seahawks free agents and listed 5 who should be priorities to re-sign. However with a large number of players set to become free agents additional salary cap space will need to be created to give the front office breathing room to make the necessary upgrades to really bulk up this roster. While I don’t believe that the salary cap is fake like some do, it is very malleable. Several moves can be made to make even the most preposterously expensive offseason moves possible, so let’s dive in.
Note: All contract values were pulled from OverTheCap.com and Spotrac.com
Extend OLB Uchena Nwosu
Arguably one of the best free agent signings made by the Seahawks during the 2022 offseason. Only 1 year removed from signing a 2 Year $19 Million dollar deal, he has exceeded the expectations that came with said deal. Coming from a Chargers team where he was mainly a rotational pass rusher, his first year as a featured edge rusher saw him put up the best season of his 5 year career (66 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 4 passes defensed). Currently he is set to have a cap hit around $13 Million in 2023.
A 3 Year $45 Million dollar extension would put him in the salary range of Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, and Eagles pass rusher Haasan Reddick. A slam dunk that could save you several million against the cap in 2023 as well as solidifying a cornerstone of your defense going forward.
Estimated 2023 Cap Savings: $5.3 Million
Cut and re-sign DE Shelby Harris to a new deal
Brought over as part of the blockbuster Russell Wilson trade, Harris has been a bright spot on a much maligned Seahawks defensive line. While his statline for 2022 wasn’t anything to write home about at first glance (44 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 4 passes defensed) he was fighting off double teams pretty consistently and creating openings for other defenders to make plays. However, going into his age 32 season set to carry a cap hit of over $12.1 Million dollars, it’s reasonable to ask whether or not his current contract may be a bit rich.
I could foresee a similar situation occurring as the Carlos Dunlap contract a couple years ago where he was brought in via trade with a fairly large cap hit for the following season. Seattle proceeded to cut him and re-sign him to a more team friendly deal with a reduced cap hit. It’s very possible Seattle pulls off a similar move with Harris. 2 Years $14 Million could get it done. I can see a move like this benefitting both parties with a reduced cap hit for Seattle, and injury protection beyond 2023 for Shelby Harris.
Estimated 2023 Cap Savings: $5.1 Million
Restructure WR Tyler Lockett, FS Quandre Diggs, and SS Jamal Adams’ deals
Lockett, Diggs, and Adams represent, as it stands now, the three largest cap hits on the team next year with $16.75 Million, $18.1 Million, and $18.11 Million respectively per Spotrac. The Quandre Diggs contract specifically has a large jump in year 2 likely accounting for Seattle’s plan to draft a young franchise QB in 2023 to replace Russell Wilson. But with a new deal for Geno Smith appearing to be very much in the cards, Seattle could aim to shove some more money into later years.
Restructuring works by converting part of a player’s base salary into a signing bonus, effectively taking a portion of their cap hit for the upcoming season and spreading it out evenly over the remaining years of the contract. Without getting into the nitty gritty of how those numbers are calculated this could potentially open up a maximum of $5.7 Million for Tyler Lockett’s contract, $6.2 Million for Quandre Diggs’ contract, and $6.6 Million for Jamal Adams’ contract. Of course that’s if Schneider chooses to restructure all of their available base salary.
While this does make things easier to work around in the short term it doesn’t make these costs go away, it just means Seattle will be paying more in future seasons and could potentially make future moves more difficult.
Cut several underperforming/aging players
While not the flashiest way to open up cap space, it is definitely the simplest of all of them. Whether it be due to not meeting expectations, injury concerns, or simply getting up there in age, several players could be moved on from this offseason. Aside from Shelby Harris who was discussed earlier in this article, here are some players that could be getting the axe this offseason.
Cut RG Gabe Jackson
Gabe Jackson was acquired in 2021 via a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders to fill the hole of veteran guard Mike Iupati who announced his retirement earlier that offseason. He was largely seen as a good upgrade and as such was given a 3 year $22.5 Million dollar extension and was expected to solidify the interior of a much maligned offensive line. Unfortunately that hasn’t been the case. In 2 years with Seattle, Jackson has largely been a below average run and pass blocker and is now dealing with some kind of knee injury which has limited his snaps for the majority of the season. Jackson is due $11,262,223 dollars in 2023 and cutting him would save Seattle $6.5 Million dollars against the cap. With several good options available to bolster Seattle’s guard spot in free agency, expect Jackson to be given his walking papers.
Cut DE Quinton Jefferson
A familiar face brought back into the fold last offseason for 2 years $9.5 Million, Jefferson was coming off a career year with the Las Vegas Raiders. Expected to provide depth and interior pass rush ability under new DC Clint Hurtt, who was his Defensive Line coach in his earlier time with Seattle, Jefferson was largely hot and cold this season. He started off slow and was largely a liability in run defense earning a 39.0 run defense grade from PFF. But as the season wore on he showed his ability to rush the passer, finishing the season with 5.5 sacks (A career high) and 13 QB Hits. Cutting Jefferson would save Seattle $4.485 Million dollars against the cap in 2023, and with several intriguing defensive linemen in free agency as well as one of the deepest defensive line draft classes in recent memory, don’t be surprised if Seattle aims to reload with an influx of young talent.
Cut NT Al Woods
Coming off his third season in Seattle after signing a 2 year $9 Million dollar deal last offseason, Al Woods played about as well as could be expected for a 35 year old nose tackle. He was one of the lone bright spots in one of the worst run defenses in the league, and has been a plus player in Clint Hurtt’s defense. However by season’s end, age and injury had begun to creep up on him. He was limited with an Achilles injury towards the end of the season which saw a drop in his snaps and overall effectiveness. Even if he returns for 2023, expect to see his role greatly reduced and young players to take a majority of his snaps. Like I’ve said before free agency and the draft are rich in young talented defensive linemen. Cutting Al Woods would save Seattle $3.67 Million against the cap in 2023 and only carry a $1.75 Million dead cap hit.
Cut NT Bryan Mone
This may seem a bit premature especially with Seattle just signing Mone to a 2 year $11 Million extension this past offseason. He’s also only going to be 28 in his 2023 season. Even so, Mone could barely find the field at all this season with Al Woods taking the majority of snaps early, and was barely making a difference when he was on the field. Aside from a week 6 Cardinals game where he was playing at an All-Pro level, he was largely ineffective and unused most of the season. And now just a few weeks before the end of the season, Mone suffered what has been described as a catastrophic knee injury. Apparently there was a lot more damage done than just to his ACL and his road to recovery will be long and arduous. There’s a very good chance he won’t play a single snap next season, and potentially never again. As painful as it will be, moving on from Mone and investing in a young nose tackle is the best path forward for this organization. Cutting Mone would save $2.675 Million dollars against the cap.
In short, there are several ways for John Schneider and the Seahawks front office to create the necessary cap space to go out and add a couple of studs to this roster, like a Daron Payne or Javon Hargrave. It won’t come without making some tough decisions regarding personnel, but that’s why they get paid the big bucks.
We’re super excited to share this guest post with you from Braxton Kendall. Braxton is one of our Patreon members who is always sharing great info and thoughts on the Seahawks in our Slack. Below is part one of his offseason outlook for the players currently on Seattle’s roster.
Well there you have it, after what has seemed like one of the most improbable seasons for Seattle in a very long time, including a winning record and a playoff appearance, Seattle fell to their rival 49ers in a 41-23 2nd half rout. While most seasons the 12s would be down and out, clamoring for massive organizational change, the pulse of Seahawks fans seems to be mostly positive and for good reason. It’s not often you trade away your greatest QB in franchise history, and cut a future Hall Of Fame Linebacker after going 7-10 and missing the playoffs and actually do better. But alas, despite all odds, Seattle may have pulled off one of the quickest and most efficient rebuilds in NFL history.
Now the attention of the team and fans alike turn towards the offseason. While it won’t provide the chest pumping excitement of watching a clutch Metcalf touchdown, a critical 3rd down sack, or a last second game winner from Money Myers, the NFL offseason provides its own brand of drama and intrigue. This is where the road to the Lombardi truly begins, and oh how sweet it will be to raise it once again in the Emerald City.
Free Agency doesn’t officially open until the start of the league year on March 15th, but there are several decisions to be made regarding Seattle’s own free agents. Expectations are much higher for 2023 than they were a year ago and Seattle has many holes to fill, and positions to reinforce. Seattle has already gotten a head start with signing longtime Seahawks kicker Jason Myers to a new 4 year deal making him the 2nd highest paid Kicker in the league. A good start to be sure, but let’s begin our dive into Seattle’s pending free agents and take a look at a few players who I believe should be priorities to bring back.
While Seattle currently sports the 6th most cap space in the NFL per overthecap.com ($34,280,644), Seattle also has 34 players set to become free agents on March 15th. This potentially leaves many positions dangerously light.
Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA): QB Geno Smith, QB Drew Lock, RB Rashaad Penny, RB Travis Homer, WR Marquise Goodwin, WR Laquon Treadwell, FB/LB Nick Bellore, FB/LB Cullen Gillaspia, G Phil Haynes, C Austin Blythe, C Kyle Fuller, DT Poona Ford, DE LJ Collier, OLB Bruce Irvin, OLB Darryl Johnson Jr, ILB Cody Barton, ILB Ben Burr-Kirven, CB Artie Burns, CB Justin Coleman, CB Xavier Crawford, DB Teez Tabor, SS Josh Jones, SS Johnathan Abram, LS Tyler Ott, LS Carson Tinker
Restricted Free Agents (RFA): WR Penny Hart, ILB Tanner Muse, SS Ryan Neal
Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA): RB Tony Jones Jr, RB Godwin Igwebuike, WR Cody Thompson, DT Myles Adams, ILB Jon Rhattigan, CB Mike Jackson Sr
As you can see we’ll have no Quarterbacks on our roster as of today with Geno Smith and Drew Lock hitting Free Agency. Similarly both of our Centers are free agents in addition to Guard Phil Haynes making the interior of this offensive line a bit worse for wear. Even off-ball linebacker is a position of need with Jordyn Brooks recovering from ACL reconstruction surgery and no linebackers signed to bulk up that position. With that being said, here are 5 players Seattle should be pushing to bring back this offseason.
QB Geno Smith
The decision of whether to sign Geno to a long term deal as your franchise option, or bring in a young rookie QB to be the future will likely be a point of contention among Seahawks fans for the next several months. Either way I fully expect Seattle to bring Geno back into the fold for at least the next two years somewhere in the range of $25-$30 Million APY.
SS Ryan Neal
Ryan Neal filled in for a disappointing Josh Jones after Week 4 and never looked back, being one of the most consistent and dangerous weapons in Seattle’s secondary. He’s set to be a Restricted Free agent meaning Seattle could choose to tender him this offseason or sign him to a long term deal. The Projected RFA Tender amount for Neal would cost $2.629 Million fully guaranteed which would be a bargain considering Neal’s play in 2022 and that he’ll only be 27 at the start of next season.
WR Marquise Goodwin
Marquise Goodwin fit well in Shane Waldron’s offense as the WR3, putting up 27 catches for 387 yards and 4 TDs in 11 games, and had a good rapport with QB Geno Smith. He would be a solid third option going into next season especially when you look at the production of the receivers behind him this season.
- Dee Eskridge: 7 catches, 58 yards
- Laquon Treadwell: 6 catches, 42 yards
- Dareke Young: 2 catches, 24 yards
- Cade Johnson: 2 catches, 21 yards
- Penny Hart: 3 catches, 20 yards
With him being almost 33 next season, he can likely be re-signed for veteran minimum.
LB Tanner Muse
I was a big fan of the move to sign Tanner Muse when he was let go by the Las Vegas Raiders. Originally drafted as a Safety out of Clemson he was used primarily as an off ball linebacker in Seattle’s systems. His snap count increased a bit with the loss of Jordyn Brooks to a knee injury and he flashed potential. With Seattle being stretched very thin in their linebacker room and Jordyn Brooks likely to miss time next season, this is a no brainer to reinforce a position of need.
While there will be many more free agent decisions to be made in the offseason this covers a few that should help bring continuity to several important positions on an evolving Seahawks roster.
In part 2, we will cover which players could be shown the door to save Seattle some cap space.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 249: Free Agency Preview
The Seattle Seahawks laid the foundation of its post-Russell Wilson roster with a great 2022 offseason, but they still need plenty of work to become a legitimate contending team.
We looked at the offense in last week’s roster outlook article, a strength of the team with three of the first four draft picks last year going towards that side of the ball, and now it’s time to address the Seahawks’ biggest weakness, a defense that was a very problematic unit for most of the season.
It wouldn’t take a football savant to see the Seahawks were deficient in run defense as they adjusted to a new defensive scheme and simply lacked playmakers in the front seven. They were routinely getting blown off the ball and did not have enough players that caused havoc for opposing offenses. . Pete Carroll made it very clear in post-season press conferences that they do not have enough difference makers up front, and Carroll and DC Clint Hurtt have plenty of work to do to get the right players and make the necessary scheme adjustments to get the defense to work.
With four draft picks in the top 60, and potentially some cap room, depending on what happens with Geno Smith and some other levers they could pull, we will go position-by-position on defense and look at where and how they need to infuse talent. As a executive of an AFC team told me last week, they are a good defensive draft away from taking a big jump as a roster.
DEFENSIVE LINE (3-4 DE, DT)
- Under Contract: Shelby Harris, Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson, Bryan Mone
- Free Agents: Poona Ford, L.J. Collier, Myles Adams (ERFA)
This was easily the weakest position group on the Seahawks this season. They were built with too many players that did not fit the scheme (Ford, Jefferson for example), and were mostly filled with rotational veterans, rather than core building blocks.
The comments from Carroll plus how their contracts are structured indicates there should be pretty significant turnover in this group, especially when you consider all of the four players listed above under contract have easy outs in their contract that would create considerable cap space.
- Shelby Harris ($12.2 million cap hit): releasing him would open $8.94 million
- Quinton Jefferson ($6.48 cap hit): releasing him would open $4.485 million
- Al Woods ($5.4 million cap hit): releasing him would open $3.67 milion
- Bryan Mone ($3.6 million cap hit) releasing him would open $2.6 million, could have injury settlement
Harris and Woods seem like the most likely of the bunch to stick, but Harris could be brought back at a lower number if he is released, and those two need to be rotational players rather than the best two players the Seahawks have up front. Jefferson, Mone, and Ford all seem unlikely to return.
This will become a priority position via the draft, but it’s hard not to see what the Bengals have done in free agency in recent years, adding starters Trey Hendrickson and DJ Reader that have become key players in consecutive playoff runs, and think the draft alone will be enough. There is a big learning curve with defensive linemen, especially in this scheme, and the team needs quality players that can play right away.
The ideal addition would be Daron Payne, the 25-year-old defensive tackle from the Washington Commanders, but he’ll be the most expensive free agent on the market, and is more likely to be franchise tagged. Other scheme fits that are set to hit free agency would be Dre’Mont Jones (Broncos), Javon Hargrave (Eagles), Greg Gaines (Rams), Zach Allen (Cardinals). None of those will be cheap either. Gaines probably provides the best value, but is closer to one dimensional.
Expect Schneider and Carroll to try and add core young pieces through the draft as well. One name for Seahawk fans to get familiar with will be Tyree Wilson, who is already being linked to the team in several mock drafts with a top 10 pick if Jalen Carter (Georgia) is not available. He is 6-foot-6 with insanely long arms (wingspan is similar to Giannis). He is a freakish talent that will rise a lot if he has a good combine workout. Another name that would fit the Seahawks is Baylor DT Siaka Ika. He is a 350-pound defensive tackle that is known as one of the best run defenders in college football. He would be a logical target with one of the second round picks.
EDGE RUSHER
- Under Contract: Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe, Darrell Taylor
- Free Agents: Bruce Irvin,
I’ve been very critical of how the Seahawks have built this position group since they traded away Frank Clark, but the team is finally starting to put together a more sustainable approach from a roster building standpoint. It is not prudent to have to go into every offseason wondering who your best pass rusher is, as they did from 2019-22.
They have accumulated some good young players, as Uchenna Nwosu proved to be a good free agent addition, as him and Darrell Taylor both had career-high 9.5 sacks last season. Taylor struggled in run defense and was benched before he emerged late in the season as a third down rusher. Boye Mafe showed more flashes as a run defender in his rookie season, but had some better rushes off the edge late in the year.
Nwosu is in the final year of his deal, and the team could extend him to lower his $13 million cap hit, while Taylor will be a RFA after the 2023 season and Maye was in the first year of his rookie contract.
All three players are under 27 years old, which is great starting point to build a position group, but it is clear that the needs more of a difference maker to headline the unit, as Carroll indicated in his post-season press conference, to jump to the next level.
Interesting to see where Seattle falls. There are some parts there. Really need a couple difference makers to turn the pass rush into a weapon. https://t.co/n7wFV5oE8m
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) January 24, 2023
There isn’t a blue chip edge rusher available in free agency, unfortunately, as the best players available will be either older declining players (Robert Quinn, Yanick Ngakoue, Jadeveon Clowney) or more secondary pass rushers such as Charles Omenihu (SF), Samson Ekubam (SF), Marcus Davenport (NO). So this area will likely be addressed via the draft, where edge rusher is a strength of the 2023 draft class.
I’d argue that EDGE is the strongest position group in the draft this year. No matter the scheme, there’s prospects for it.
Outstanding group this year.
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) January 18, 2023
Alabama’s Will Anderson would be the ideal pick in the first round, but he seems to be more of a long shot to fall to pick No. 5. Otherwise, there are a plethora of other options that can be found in the draft, such as Andre Carter (Army), Nolan Smith (Georgia), Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Kansas State), Isiaiah Foskey (Notre Dame), or a bigger rusher like Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) that could all be available at pick 20 or later.
INSIDE LINEBACKER
- Under Contract: Jordyn Brooks, Ben Burr-Kirven, Vi Jones
- Free Agents: Cody Barton, Tanner Muse (RFA), Jon Rhattigan (RFA),
As questionable as the interior defensive line is, this is arguably the bleakest roster spot heading into the offseason. The lone starter under contract, Jordyn Brooks, tore his ACL late in the season and will likely not be ready for the start of the 2023 season. Barton, the other starter from 2022, did not do enough to warrant a starting job for next season (sorry Xs and Os twitter, KJ Wright agrees). With Brooks’ timeline unclear, I have some concern the team might prioritize Barton as a free agent to have some continuity in the group.
The Seahawks should instead look at free agency to upgrade, as ILB is one of the deeper position groups in free agency, which could create some value signings.
From a positional value standpoint, you don’t want to break the bank at an inside linebacker so that should rule out bigger names such as former first round pick Tremaine Edmunds (Bills), who will get big money if he hits the open market, but there are plenty of names I would look at including Germaine Pratt (Bengals), Bobby Okereke (Colts), Alex Singleton (Broncos), Leighton Vander Esch (Cowboys), Drue Tranquill (Chargers), or David Long (Titans), all of which are 30 or under and shouldn’t cost too much in terms of APY or cap hit.
Free agent LBs of interest:
Germaine Pratt
David Long Jr
Bobby Okereke
Alex Singleton
Kaden Eliss
Denzel Perryman
Tremaine Edmunds
Devin Bush
Azeez Al-ShaairLess interested in top dollar guys like Edmunds.
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) January 16, 2023
A lot of teams have also found quality off ball linebackers later in the draft, so this should be a focus for the Seahawks as they get into Round 3 and beyond. San Francisco found both their starting linebackers outside of the first 60 picks, as Fred Warner was drafted in round 3, and Dre Greenlaw went in Round 5, and it is a position historically where you can plug-and-play a lot easier than on the defensive line. This draft class doesn’t have a lot of frontline prospects at off-ball linebacker.
CORNERBACK
- Under Contract: Tariq Woolen, Coby Bryant, Tre Brown. Isaiah Dunn,
- Free Agents: Michael Jackson (ERFA), Artie Burns, Justin Coleman, Xavier Crawford
Similar to the offensive tackle position, this is the healthiest position group the Seahawks have on defense from a team building standpoint. Three of the top four players on the depth chart are all on rookie contracts, and as a ERFA, Jackson will not be expensive to retain. Cornerback has become one of the premiere positions on the market, so allocating such a low amount to a core position, gives the team a huge competitive advantage to address their deficiencies in the trenches for the next 2-to-3 years once they deal with the problem you will see below.
There likely isn’t a outside free agent that would be prioritized here, but cornerback is one of the best position groups in the draft, so do not be surprised if they continue to add here in the draft to even further build a position of strength.
One of the deepest classes in recent memory@PFF_Mike ranks his top ten CBs in the 2023 NFL Drafthttps://t.co/9fvuRve0wn
— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 20, 2023
SAFETY
- Under Contract: Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, Joey Blount
- Free Agents: Ryan Neal (RFA), Jon Abram, Teez Tabor, Josh Jones
As good as cornerback is from a team building standpoint, safety is the exact opposite for the Seahawks. No team is close to committing as many cap dollars at the safety position than Seattle, as Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs both have cap hits of $18.1 million for 2023. That’s an astonishing 36.2 million going to two starting safeties, a number that would make most cap managers sick to their stomach. This number would ideally be shifted into the defensive line, especially if Geno gets an extension.
The total safety allocation will grow even bigger if the Seahawks use a second-round RFA tender on Neal, who was their most consistent safety this year. Giving Diggs that kind of cap hit in the second year of his contract was a telling sign the team initially planned to have a rookie quarterback. They could badly use a rookie salary at this position.
The Seahawks do have options, however, if they deem this as untenable moving forward. The team could release Diggs, which would clear $9.9 million of cap room or they could designate him as a June 1 cut, spreading the cap hit over two years, which would clear $14 million for 2023. However, this will create another roster hole, and based on how Carroll talked about Diggs after the season, referring to him as one of the team’s difference makers on defense, that does not seem in the cards.
Adams would not make sense to be outright released from a cap standpoint, as the team would take on a $21 million dead hit and not save any money, but a post-June 1 cut would clear out $11 million. Given Adams’ injury recovery timeline and durability issues over the last three seasons, GM John Schneider has a pretty good case to ask his camp to redo the deal, but not sure they will go that route.
There are even cleaner outs next season, so this is likely the last season Adams and Diggs will be on the roster together, without a dramatic spike in Adams’ play. The team will need to reshape this group beyond 2023.
The Seahawks face a choice this offseason, to commit to Geno Smith for the next couple seasons, or utilize a coveted top-5 pick on a hopeful franchise quarterback. This decision isn’t cut and dry given the unique circumstances of Geno’s career and sudden rise.
Geno Smith had a season that far outpaced consensus expectations, leading the Seahawks to the playoffs, playing like a top-5 QB at times, and proving that Pete Carroll and John Schneider made the right choice to keep him around. While his performance declined down the stretch, he ended up 14th in EPA per play, 1st in CPOE (completion percentage over expected), and 7th in the combined EPA-CPOE metric (which is the best metric for predicting future EPA performance), per RBSDM.com. This is good enough performance to warrant a sizeable extension.
This piece isn’t intended to say the Seahawks shouldn’t re-sign Geno, but rather to explore the alternative. The most likely scenario at this point is Geno Smith re-signs, as he himself expressed desire to, and the Seahawks front office appears to feel the same way. The looming question is how much will it take to re-sign him?
Middle-Class Quarterback Contracts
| Name | Average Per Year (APY) | | Derek Carr | $40,474,160 | | Dak Prescott | $40,000,000 | | Matt Stafford | $40,000,000 | | Kirk Cousins | $35,000,000 | | Jared Goff | $33,500,000 | | Carson Wentz | $32,000,000 | | Matt Ryan | $30,000,000 | | Ryan Tannehill | $29,500,000 |
Data Source: overthecap.comThe above table shows the NFL’s middle-class of quarterbacks. There’s a wide range of quarterbacks here, at the top of the list is Carr, who was benched and will either be traded or cut. Prescott and Cousins are consistent playoff participants with some doubt, more so for Cousins, whether he can lead a team to a Super Bowl. Stafford struggled mightily before an injury ended his season. Goff played better this season, but he’s unlikely to take another step forward. The lower tier is rounded out by Wentz, Ryan, and Tannehill who were all benched at some point this season. Overall, the Cowboys and Vikings are likely the only teams that aren’t regretting their decision.
Geno Smith falls somewhere in this group of quarterbacks, more towards the Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott side but with only one season of solid performance to back it up. The non-exclusive franchise tag number will be around $31 miillion, which will act as a starting point for negotiations in terms of APY. That number could lower in exchange for more guarantees in a multi-year contract, but that reduces the Seahawks ability to get out of the contract quickly if Geno’s performance falls off in a hurry.
Further complicating the situation is the Seahawks cap situation in the upcoming season. They currently have just $31.2 million, with a significant rookie pool due to the two 1st round picks. While there will be a few cuts to increase cap space, the Seahawks likely need Geno Smith’s cap hit will need to be below the $31 million on the non-exclusive franchise tag if they want to have any significant free agent acquisitions.
The cap situation looks much healthier in future years, so the main hurdle will be affordability in the first year of the contract. While there’s always cap manuevers to help in the near term, committing to Smith past two years (or having large dead money past two years) is a risky proposition. Just ask the Colts, who will have $18 million in dead money should they decide to cut Matt Ryan this offseason. Ultimately, it’s not a huge concern given the large amount of cap space in future years, but it is an inconvenience should Geno fail to repeat his performance.
Extending Smith will be expensive, the Seahawks need to ask themselves, can we contend for a Super Bowl with a more consistent Geno Smith and an improved defense? If they don’t feel they can, the logic of re-signing Geno fades.
Value of Drafting Top-5Looking ahead to the draft, the Seahawks have the 5th overall pick thanks to the Broncos poor season. They haven’t had a pick this high since 2009 when they took Aaron Curry with the 4th pick. It’s been more than a decade since having a top-5 pick and only happened because of a trade. A pick this high is rare, and in a draft where three or four quarterbacks may get taken in the top-10, it would be an oversight to dismiss taking a quarterback. While early (pre-combine) in draft season, there appears to be a lack of star power at skill positions, with even the most coveted prospects having question marks. Quarterback meanwhile looks very solid after a weak 2022 draft class. Four quarterbacks look like they will be first round picks and maybe even all four will go in the top-10.
With their native pick, the Seahawks are slotted at 20th, a spot that in most drafts means the top quarterback prospects are gone. This is one of the downfalls of being in the quarterback middle-class, teams like the Commanders (16th pick) and Titans (11th pick) would need to give up significant resources to move up and secure a top quarterback. Even a team like the Raiders at 7th might see three quarterbacks be drafted ahead of them. The point here is that even if Geno struggles, it’s not a sure thing the Seahawks will have a top-5 pick anytime soon. Securing an elite quarterback prospect on a cheap rookie deal is hard to pass up.
Nevertheless, good quarterbacks can get taken outside the top few picks. Over the last decade Russell Wilson (3rd round), Kirk Cousins (4th round), Dak Prescott (4th round), Lamar Jackson (32nd overall), and Jalen Hurts (2nd round) have been successful. The hit rate falls off though after the top few prospects.
The above graph shows career EPA per dropback and the associated draft position for each quarterback. Of note, there’s a selection bias issue here where quarterbacks who were drafted later but never played aren’t shown, so the true trend is probably a more extreme decline by draft position. Setting that aside, there’s a clear bunch of good performers that get taken early in the draft (top-10 or earlier). There are lots of misses as well, drafting a quarterback early is by no means a sure thing, but waiting until later lowers the chance of finding a franchise quarterback.
Rookie quarterback contracts are the greatest value in football. Top of market quarterbacks will be topping $50 million APY with regularity soon enough. Compare that to the Seahawks 5th pick of just $8.5 million APY. That sort of savings doesn’t happen anywhere else. The debate then turns to a final point, are the Seahawks in position to take advantage of a rookie contract?
Consider the Cincinatti Bengals who took Joe Burrow in 2020. The previous season they were 29th in EPA per rush, had a poor OL, their WR1 is now their WR3 (Tyler Boyd), and were 30th by defensive EPA/play. Now in year three of Burrow, they have one of the best wide receiver rooms in the league and a defense that shut down Josh Allen in the playoffs. The Bengals were not in a position to immedietaly take advantage of the rookie quarterback contract, but it’s turned around quickly. While no one may be Joe Burrow in this draft, there’s no need to wait until the defense is good to take a shot at a franchise quarterback.
The alternative is building the great defense and never having the quarterback, like the Jets this past season. But even there is a red herring, the Jets did take a quarterback, it didn’t proclude them from investing in defense. The Seahawks also have picks 20, 37 and 52, those are premium picks that can build out the defense. Waiting for the perfect moment that may never come is a road to despair.
On the bright side, the Seahawks have building blocks in place for a young quarterback to succeed. Up front, two rookie tackles had encouraging starts to their career and can provide good, if not great, pass protection. The receiver position looks good too, with a true number one in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett who has turned in four straight 1,000 yard seasons. Tie that together with a creative offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, and the situation looks quite rosy for a rookie quarterback.
The Seahawks may be at a fork in the the road this off-season, but it’s a good time to be a fan. If they opt for the Geno Smith route, it’s a great story to root for with the upshot of Geno reproducing his early season performance where he played like a top-5 quarterback. The rookie route may have bumps in the road, but provides an immediate cap value and infuses hope in the long-term success of the franchise.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 248: Off-Season Preview
The Seattle Seahawks were a great story in 2022. Now, it’s time to become a great team.
The Seahawks took a critical step in their roster development, starting with the Russell Wilson trade last March (which now looks like a one-sided heist), and followed that up with an “all-time level” draft class that provided the team with several building block core players.
Seahawks 2022 Rookie Class Recap pic.twitter.com/4ZeJv3wgzZ
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) January 10, 2023
That helped put the franchise back on a positive trajectory — after what looked like one of the bleaker long-term roster outlooks exiting the 2021 season.
As good as the 2022 season was in terms of overachieving expectations , the loss to San Fransisco was another indication they still have a ways to go. The team did not have a single player selected to the AP All Pro team and simply lack blue chip frontline talent that contending teams typically have. The rule of thumb in personnel offices is it usually takes two good drafts to turn a franchise around.
Seattle has that opportunity, sitting on a haul of draft capital stemming from the Wilson trade, mixed in with some free agent money to spend as well.
With that in mind, we thought it was a good time to dive deep into the Seahawks’ roster, position by position, heading into the offseason.
Today, we will start with the offense. We will take a look at what they have already, where they can upgrade, and the decisions GM John Schneider has to make at every spot. It is the strength of Seattle’s roster heading into the offseason.
Nice season for Seattle. They’ve got something on offense with those 2 WRs and Geno, Walker, 2 rookie OTs.
They need to invest in defensive help this offseason. Need a ton of it
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) January 15, 2023
QUARTERBACK
- Under Contract: N/A
- Free Agents: Geno Smith, Drew Lock
All indications are the Seahawks will retain Geno. Ian Rapoport reported before the playoff game Saturday that he is expected back in 2023, but the real question is for how much? He is a tough player to value after a breakout year at age 32 that also came with a second-half dip in performance and an issue with turnovers as we got the full body of work.
The non-exclusive franchise number is expected to be approximately $31.5 million, but that will eat up most of Seattle’s cap room available so a franchise tag would more likely serve as a placeholder before a longer-term deal gets done (remember, the year 1 cap hit would be much lower than $31.5 million).
Complicating matters is that the Seahawks do have a top five pick in a draft class where four QBs are expected to go in the first round. This appeared to be the route they initially planned to go before Geno’s unexpected spike in performance. The contracts designed last year in free agent (Will Dissly, Quandre Diggs) all had big second year numbers, which made it seem like they were projecting to match that with a rookie QB salary in 2023.
HawkBlogger (Brian Nemhauser) has presented a very good case why the team should not invest a first round pick in quarterback at 2023, but it’s hard not to look at the four AFC finalists (Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, and Patrick Mahomes) and see the common pattern. The Seahawks would really have to fall for Will Levis (Kentucky) or Anthony Richardson (Florida) to pull the trigger in the top five. Drafting a QB is not like drafting a defensive tackle. They are the face of your franchise. You have to be all in on the guy, even if you sit behind Geno for a year.
It’ll be fascinating to see how Schneider handles this, including if they retain Drew Lock who is a player the front office has been high on, and at what price. It is critical to their future.
RUNNING BACK
- Under Contract: Ken Walker, Deejay Dallas
- Free Agents: Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer
Walker has established himself as the bonafide RB1 moving forward. He took control of the spot once Penny went down with an Achillies injury. Dallas is more of a depth piece that can contribute as a third down back, but the team could use another quality backup to Walker.
That could come in the draft with a mid round pick, but they will have plenty of options in free agency this year. It is the deepest position group hitting the market, which will provide plenty of cost-controlled options. Supply will largely outweigh demand.
This year’s UFA crop includes Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and Miles Sanders, none of which strike me as realistic targets, as the team presumably focus on free agent backs that play in committees. There is a really deep list of pending free agents.
2023 Upcoming RB Free Agents:
– Saquon Barkley
– Kareem Hunt
– Rashaad Penny
– Jamaal Williams
– Josh Jacobs
– Raheem Mostert
– D'Onta Foreman
– Miles Sanders
– Jeff Wilson
– David Montgomery
– Damien Harris
– Devin Singletary
– Alexander Mattison
– Tony Pollard
– James Robinson— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 9, 2023
Penny might be the logical player to re-sign if he is healthy, given his cost won’t be very high due to supply in free agency and his durability concerns, but wouldn’t someone like Jamaal Williams be a fun pairing with Walker next year? He is sort of a Seahawk fan favorite after the Lions helped get them into the playoffs this year.
WIDE RECEIVER:
- Under Contract: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Dareke Young, Dee Eskridge, Cade Johnson
- Free Agents: Marquise Goodwin, Penny Hart (RFA), Laquon Treadwell
At first glance, receiver might not seem like a big need for 2023. Both Metcalf and Lockett are under contract for under market value in terms of cap hits (both are under $16.5 million for 2023).
However, a deeper dive in the cap shows this being a very-short term solution. Lockett and Metcalf’s cap hits are set to skyrocket in 2024 (both over $20 million), making WR a very immediate need.
The big spikes in 2024 means that the team should not pursue a quality veteran for WR3 (some have suggested Brandin Cooks) unless it is a player on a one-year deal. The more prudent solution is the team needs to draft a rookie WR3. Not only will this help compensate the big cap hits, but it’ll help mitigate the risk of injury. We saw the passing game fall of a cliff in the one game Lockett missed this season.
I would advise the Seahawks against going to the free agent market to fill the WR3 void. See below. It is mostly low-upside veterans that will get overpaid on the market, and the team need cost control at that spot. The second round of draft would be the sweet spot to fill this void.
2023 Upcoming WR Free Agents:
– Nelson Agholor
– Sterling Shepard
– DJ Chark
– Randall Cobb
– Marvin Jones
– Byron Pringle
– Allen Lazard
– Jakobi Meyers
– Juju Smith-Schuster
– Mack Hollins
– Mecole Hardman
– Noah Brown
– Parris Campbell
– Greg Dortch
– Darius Slayton— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 9, 2023
TIGHT END:
- Under Contract: Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson,
- Free Agents: None
The Seahawks picked up Fant’s 5th-year option and Parkinson has one more year remaining on his rookie deal, so the majority of the tight end group will return in 2023. However, Dissly is the only player signed beyond the 2023 season, and even before his late-season injury which makes his status for next season a bit unclear, his contract was more realistically designed as a two-year deal. The third year was mostly funny money.
I don’t see any notable free agent addition as a realistic option, as the team is happy with both Fant and Parkinson, but given the uncertainty beyond 2023, it could make tight end a sneaky option n in the draft. This is expected to be a very good tight end draft class, with quality options ranging from round 1 to round 4.
The 2023 NFL Draft has a REALLY strong TE class.
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Darnell Washington, Georgia
Tucker Kraft, South Dakota StateAll should be top-50 selections.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) December 31, 2022
OFFENSIVE TACKLE
- Under Contact: Charles Cross, Abraham Lucas, Stone Forsythe, Jake Curhan
- Free Agents: N/A
This is far and away the Seahawks’ healthiest position group from a cap standpoint and a big competitive advantage in this window. All four roster players, including both starting tackles, are on rookie contracts and they will not have to make a sizable financial investment into the group for a number of years.
Cross and Lucas both are core franchise players moving forward.
INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE:
- Under Contract: Damien Lewis, Gabe Jackson
- Free Agents: Phil Haynes, Austin Blythe, Kyle Fuller
While the play of the defense got most of the attention, interior offensive line became a really problematic area as the season progressed. They had constant issues with run blocking, and as Blythe’s play declined in the second half, they were constantly under pressure up the middle, which really impacted Geno’s ability to step up in the pocket. This needs to be addressed moving forward.
While both starting guards appear to be under contract, Gabe Jackson is an obvious cap cut for 2023. The team would save $6.5 million if they do release Jackson ($11.26 million cap hit), which will leave only one of the team’s three guards signed for next season. Haynes would only be worth bringing back in a backup role. They need to look either at the draft or free agent for an upgrade at right guard that fits with the rest of the line.
Center remains a major point of contention for this blog. Blythe was okay as a stopgap, but the team has been messing around at this position since Max Unger was traded away in 2015 and they have suffered as a result . The Seahawks need to either heavily invest in a quality free agent C, or spend one of the first four picks at this spot.
There are some veteran options in free agency – Jake Brendel from San Francisco, Bradley Bozeman had a good year in Carolina, but ideally the team makes a high investment in the draft. Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz or Ohio State’s Luke Wyper, both expected to be Day 2 picks, would be ideal priorities to grow with the tackles in this group.
The defensive roster outlook will be posted later this week in a separate article.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating3 Votes2.5Humans love risk. We gather in large crowds to watch daredevils attempts life-threatening stunts. We pay money to see if an escape artist can wriggle out of an elaborate and seemingly impossible trap. We hold our collective breaths as extreme athletes leap from cliffs with only nylon wings to control their fall. The Seahawks attempted such a risky proposition on Saturday. They were outmatched at almost every position against an arch rival that was at peak health and performance while barely making the playoffs themselves and being far from peak health. It was as if they were balancing a glass of acid on their heads while walking a tightrope tied between two tall Douglas fir trees in a wind storm with hungry cougars gathered below. We watched in amazement as they made it halfway across with nary a drop spilled. Then, the wind shifted suddenly, a drop of acid hit their head, they lost their balance, and it was over.
The Seahawks were down by one score with roughly 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and appeared to be facing a 3rd and 2 at the 49ers 7-yard line. A flag flew for ineligible man downfield. Instead of 3rd and 2, it was 2nd and 14. After an incomplete pass, Geno Smith fumbled and the rout was on.
Seahawks players and coaches and many fans are upset about that call. It is understandable. It easily could not have been called. At the same time, Damien Lewis clearly was moving downfield and it was at least borderline. It is hard for me to be up in arms about a borderline call. I thought the non-call on pass interference later in the game on a D.K. Metcalf go route was much more egregious.
In any event, it was a series that was symbolic of just how much of a mismatch this game was. Seattle went a whole half without a single penalty or turnover. They played nearly perfectly in many regards, and they were fortunate to be leading by a single point.
The degree of difficulty in playing a perfect game against a vastly superior opponent in the first playoff game for most of your team while on the road is about as high as it gets in football.
While many will see this game as the Seahawks getting crushed, as expected, I walk away with a much different point of view.
Seattle found themselves down 10-0 quickly in this game. The offense took the ball 78 yard for a touchdown on their next possession, and then took the lead with a 71-yard touchdown drive on a gorgeous 50-yard bomb to Metcalf. They were punched by a heavyweight. They punched right back, and had them in the corner.
I have already seen plenty of criticism of Geno Smith for having two turnovers. What I saw was a guy who played a sparkling first half and had the team once again in position to score a go-ahead touchdown before things unraveled. His interception was after the game was out of hand and he was taking more chances.
He faced this big moment and answered the call. There were a number of sizzling throws, third down conversions, and gutsy runs. He is a leader and a man I can cheer for and that I believe teammates will follow.
Yes, he absolutely needs to work on ball security. Guess what? He knows and acknowledged as much in his postgame comments. I believe he has earned the benefit of the doubt that he will see his flaws and work to improve them this offseason.
He was not alone in stepping up. The offensive line had been a train wreck for most of the second half of the season, and had been dominated by this Niners line twice. They played a mostly above average game in both pass protection and run blocking.
Kenneth Walker III was regularly getting positive yardage on his runs. Twelve of his fifteen carries went for 2 yards or more. Nine of those twelve went for 4 yards or more. The run game was pretty darn effective against the best run defense in football. In fact, they were only the second team to break 100 yards rushing against San Francisco in the last 11 games. Had the game remained within reach, that total almost certainly would have climbed higher.
Metcalf was terrific in this one. He made tough catches, and played with physicality without crossing the line and costing his team. His juggling catch on 3rd and 12 was arguably more impressive than the 50-yard touchdown. He has now come up big in multiple playoff performances, which bodes well for when this group actually has a chance to compete.
What you will not see is encouraging signs from players on the other side of the ball. The defense was pretty awful from the start. Rookies Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant were abused in this one. Woolen gave up a bunch of big plays on crossing routes. Bryant missed a bunch of tackles after having not missed a single tackle in nine games. The silver lining is you hope they learned a lot and can take that bitter taste into the offseason to work and improve.
Cody Barton, on the other hand, was once again terrible and needs to not be in this lineup ever again. A key success measure of this offseason is whether Barton is penciled in as a starter heading into camp. If he is, the improvement of this defense will be suspect.
Tanner Muse outplayed Barton. I would not get overly excited about Muse. This team needs to invest in young, athletic, playmaking linebackers. They need attackers, not defenders there.
The defensive line remains job number one. That group is old, bad, and weak. You could have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and not go anywhere with that defensive line. Seattle needs to not only prioritize that part of their team, but make multiple moves and have those moves work.
There are plenty of interesting edge defenders in this draft, but there are always fewer interesting interior linemen. There are a few free agents, but paying top dollar there will be tough and questionable.
Increasingly, I am looking for the Seahawks to trade back from both of their first round picks to add a first round pick next year from a team like Atlanta or Carolina that could be near the top of the draft next year, and add more 2nd or 3rd round picks this year. I am not convinced there is a big difference in the quality of players from 5 to 12 in this draft, and I’m even less convinced there is a difference between 20 and 30.
Seattle has the 5th and 20th pick as it stands, and could rise to the 19th if Tampa Bay wins their game. They also have the 37th and 52nd picks in the second round, and the 83rd pick in the 3rd round. I think it would be wise to try and get two more in the top 100 to have a total of seven in the first three rounds. The ammo to do that would come from trading back from that second first round pick, and possibly that first second rounder.
Ideally, we are talking about 2 of those picks going to DT, 1 to Edge, 1 to guard, 1 to center, 1 to WR, and 1 to safety or linebacker. There are only so many rookies you can add to your roster, but I see what appears to be a really strong crop of talent between 20 and 100 in this draft at these positions of real need for the Seahawks. Getting as many chances to hit in that portion of the draft is key.
As you can see, I would much rather talk about the draft than this defense. I will be happy to never see this defense again. For folks who throw their hands up and say we have been seeing this for years, I get it, and I will offer this consolation: I do believe this is Pete Carroll’s last chance to address this defense. If this team once again has a defense near the bottom of the NFL next season, the coach needs to be fired. No more chances.
This group reminds me so much of the 2009 Seahawks defense. It was littered with some guys past their prime like Lofa Tatupu and Marcus Trufant, and had almost no young talent. Some of the better young talent was pretty middling like David Hawthorne at middle linebacker and Darryl Tapp at defensive end. The only guy that became part of the great Seahawks defenses to come was Brandon Mebane.
This group has Woolen and Uchenna Nwosu as players you know you want to keep around. Bryant had flashes of promise and I’d bet on him. Tre Brown has real upside with an offseason to train and be at full health. Darrell Taylor started to show his potential, but I do wonder if he becomes the Darryl Tapp of this group that Schneider could trade for a big return.
As much as I love seeing Taylor develop as a pass rusher, he is a pretty big disaster against the run, which limits his value in this defense. It was Tapp who was traded for the unknown Chris Clemons and a 4th round pick. You might be able to get a second round pick for Taylor this year.
Seattle has to take big swings this offseason and turn over the roster significantly. The 49ers are going to be a monster for years to come now that they have a promising rookie quarterback making under $1M for the next four years and their core secured for much of that time.
The Seahawks could barely compete with them this year. They may be even tougher next year. Realistically, it might be two years before Seattle has the maturity and firepower to go toe-to-toe with them, and that is if the Seahawks nail their offseason additions over that time.
Despite the final score, this was a positive step for the development of that future Seahawks team. I am bullish on what we saw from Abe Lucas and Charles Cross and Kenneth Walker and D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith. I see a terrific opportunity to close the gap this offseason with a great draft and wise free agent additions.
It was a wildly unexpected and vacillating season. Most of what came out of it was wonderfully positive. The lows were nauseating. Put a defense on the field that is not embarrassing and shameful, and we can start to aim higher than one half of good playoff football. For now, there may not have been a more fitting way to end this season.
Separately, as I wrap up my 16th season of covering the Seahawks through this blog and the podcast, I just wanted to take a moment to thank all of you for reading, listening, tweeting, and watching over the years. I started this blog as a way to find community to talk about my favorite team, and it has grown into so much more. We have seen different coaches, players, owners, beat writers, bloggers, and so much more over that time, but this community has been a constant. I am grateful for your support and hope you all have a terrific new year.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 247: Seahawks Eliminated on Super Wild Card Weekend
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5!
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 246: Wildcard Playoff Preview vs 49ers
The last time these two teams met, the Seahawks had lost two straight home games to the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers. Worse, the defense had given up over 160 yards rushing four straight games and over 120 yards rushing in five straight. Then Al Woods got injured and was unavailable. The, Bryan Mone got injured and left the game. Here Seattle was, facing the hottest and most physical team in football in a primetime game that had humiliation written all over it.
Yet, like so many other times during this wacky Seahawks season, something unexpected happened. The Seattle defense forced the 49ers to punt on four of their first five possessions. There the Seahawks were, down 7-3, with the ball and less than two minutes remaining in the half. A few quick passes and Seattle was at their own 35 yard line with just over a minute left when Travis Homer caught a pass and fumbled as he was hit by two 49er players.
San Francisco scored a touchdown on a six yard drive. They got the ball to start the second half and added another touchdown. At 21-3, the rout was on. Or was it? Seattle got another field goal, and then held the 49ers scoreless on their next three possessions before scoring their only touchdown of the game to shockingly pull within one score at 21-13. The 49ers would slam the door shut on the last drive, but this game was not the flogging most expected.
In fact, that was the second-closest game the 49ers played in the final eight games of the season, and their lowest point total in their final six games. Every other defense allowed at least 33 points.
San Francisco has been blowing the doors off of nearly every team they have faced. But somehow the lowly Seahawks defense, missing key players, was able to slow them down. Seattle coaches would tell you that two of the touchdowns came on busted coverages. The other, came on a six yard drive.
Since that game, the 49ers have rolled on, with one notable exception. The best defense in the league has sprung a leak in pass coverage. They gave up 270 passing yards and 3 passing TDs to Carson Wentz and Taylor Heincke. They gave up 365 yards and 3 TDs to world-beater, Jarrett Stidham. Even David Blough managed a 77-yard touchdown to the creaky A.J. Green in the final game.
The 49ers ranked 27th in the NFL in explosive passes (16+ yards) allowed in the three games since facing Seattle. Their top three cornerbacks ranked 56th (Charvarius Ward), 84th (Samuel Womack), and 142nd (Deommodore Lenoir) out of 161 corners during that stretch. Two of their safeties, Talanoa Hufanga (85th) and Tashaun Gipson Sr. (112th) ranked near the bottom of 136 safeties during that stretch.
If you are an advanced stats fan, the 49ers were 23rd in the NFL in opponent dropback success rate and 27th in pass defense DVOA over those three weeks.
San Francisco is talented enough elsewhere that they were still able to win these games, and by large margins in two of the three. They also forced some interceptions in between allowing big gains through the air. Whether Seattle has what it takes to exploit this soft spot in an otherwise dominant defense remains to be seen.
The Seahawks pass offense has been mostly mediocre of late, and has turned the ball over too often. Their run game has been much better, but this 49ers run defense is almost impenetrable. Those explosive runs of 12+ yards that Kenneth Walker loves so much? The 49ers defense gave up zero. The longest run they have surrendered in three weeks is 9 yards.
Seattle will need to play a game unlike almost any they have played this year in order to win. They have had just one game without a turnover. They are 0-4 when they do not force a turnover, and the 49ers are 3rd best in the league at protecting the ball. The Seahawks almost certainly have to win the turnover battle, and likely need to not turn the ball over at all.
They will need to recapture the more prolific passing offense that has eluded them for the past five weeks. They will need to tackle well, play screens well, and avoid busted coverages. They will need excellent special teams play. And they will need to do it all in what is expected to be a rainy and windy afternoon in Santa Clara.
The compounding probabilities of all those things going right for Seattle is not high. That is what would make a Seattle win all the more exhilarating.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
This series is sponsored by Sarah and Chris Rood, huge Seahawks fans and Hawk Blogger patrons. Please thank them by contacting them to work with them on your next home purchase or sale in the Seattle area. They will donate an additional $500 to Ben’s Fund for every closed transaction!
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense 
49ers key advantages on defenseNick Bosa is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. Fred Warner has been back to Pro Bowl form and is flanked by athletic flyers in Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair. Hufanga made the Pro Bowl and combined with safeties Jimmie Ward and Tashaun Gipson for 12 interceptions. This is a defense with playmakers at every level, and physical tacklers that do not often miss. Bosa gave Charles Cross nightmares in the last matchup. Truthfully, every Seahawks offensive lineman was overwhelmed in that game.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseWalker had 3 yards or more on eight of his twelve carries in the last matchup. Seattle went away from the run, and that was a mistake. Walker has grown as a runner in the last couple of weeks, taking fewer chances and getting tougher yards. If he can grind out 2-5 yards on the majority of his carries, Seattle needs to lean on him to reduce turnover potential.
If the 49ers bottle up the run game as they have against so many teams this year, Seattle will need Geno Smith to be excellent. In order for Smith to be excellent, the offensive line has to be at least reasonably effective and D.K. Metcalf has to be dominant. Tyler Lockett is playing hurt.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offenseDeebo Samuel was absent in the first game and is one of the biggest badasses in football. Elijah Mitchell was also not in that last game, and he brings his breakaway speed back for this one. Brock Purdy has settled in with George Kittle as his safety net. Wise choice. Nobody has managed to keep Kittle out of the end zone in the last four weeks, and only one team was able to hold him to a single touchdown. How Seattle attempts to defend him will be key.
Trent Williams is the best lineman in football.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseThe Seahawks have held their last three opponents, including the Chiefs in Kansas City, under 300 yards of offense. They have Al Woods back, and may get Ryan Neal back as well. Darrell Taylor has ended the season on a tear, and fished with 9.5 sacks. He has been a top five pass rusher over the last five weeks of the year. Boye Mafe has come on as well.
This team has done this primarily through great coverage and improved pass rush. The run defense has been better, but not great.
The 49ers have been held under 100 yards rushing just once in the last 11 games, and they only managed 13 points in that game. No team has been able to truly put the game on Brock Purdy’s shoulders as the 49ers have regularly rushed for 150+ yards.
One thing to note with Purdy is he has struggled at times when blitzed. Seattle only blitzed him twice in the first game, but one of those times resulted in a throw directly to Quandre Diggs, who dropped the pick. Look for Seattle to bring more pressure this time.
Diggs is worth singling out. He played one of his worst games in that last matchup, not only dropping the easy interception but making a very weak attempt to tackle Kittle on one of his touchdowns. Since then, Diggs has been the best safety in football. He has interceptions in his last two games, and has the top PFF grade in the league. This would be a great game for him to pick on the rookie.
Special Teams
Seattle has a better special teams unit. Seahawks fans have to hope that is a factor.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
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Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating3 Votes2.7This was not supposed to happen. It was not supposed to happen when the Seahawks traded away their franchise quarterback and cut their best defender. It was not supposed to happen when they left their quarterback position to Drew Lock, Geno Smith, and Jacob Eason. It was not supposed to happen when they started a 5th round rookie and a moonwalker at corner or two rookies at offensive tackle. It was not supposed to happen when their biggest playmaker on defense, who was a featured part of the new scheme was lost in the first game of the year or when their explosive starting running back went down a few weeks later. It was not supposed to happen when they started 1-2, including a loss to the lowly Falcons at home, or when their defense surrendered over 100 yards rushing to their first six opponents. It absolutely was not supposed to happen when they lost five of six games, including clunkers against the Bucs, Raiders, and Panthers. And it certainly was not supposed to happen when the NFL decided to give the Green Bay Packers every chance to make the playoffs by scheduling them in the Sunday night game. Guess what? It happened.
The 2022 Seattle Seahawks are going to the playoffs. As a wise man once said, “They wrote us off, but [we] didn’t write back.”
Seattle becomes first team to make the playoffs and have a top five pick in the upcoming draft in decades. This was a storybook season in a Disney sort of way. We saw our parents killed off in the first scene, struggled to survive, but ultimately wound up victorious.
The story saved one of the most shocking twists for the very last game of the NFL season. Our brothers from midwest mothers, the Detroit Lions, marched into Lambeau Field and smacked down arrogant Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
The Lions have been a lovable team since their preseason appearance on Hard Knocks with amazing sound bites from their new coach and their rookie defensive lineman singing Billie Jean. If you have never heard a Jamaal Williams interview, you are missing out.
Sitting on my couch watching them rip hope from the hearts of the Packers and their fans was one of the most enjoyable moments of the season. I am thrilled the Seahawks benefitted, but I’d be lying if I said I was happy to see Detroit’s season end. That is a team and a fanbase that deserves a taste of the playoffs.
In lieu of that, we are trying to thank them with donations to the team charity. Please consider a “12” inspired donation to show them appreciation and the rest of the league who Seahawks fans are.
The only reason that game mattered was because the Seahawks won their final game, and because they had beaten the Lions 48-45 earlier in the year, back when the offense was capable of scoring points.
Seattle had 400+ yards of offense in five of their first nine games. They have done it just twice in their last eight games. Ironically, both those games were against the Rams. Yes, it is true. The Seahawks had over 400 yards of offense yesterday.
Of course, it took overtime to get there, but it happened. More than yards, points have been hard to find. Seattle has scored 13, 10, 23, and 19 in their last four games. While we all screamed into the void about this awful Seahawks defense, the team played a shell game and put the dunce hat on a different group.
The Seahawks defense has held their last three opponents under 300 yards of offense, including the Chiefs on the road. They have held those teams to the third lowest conversion rate on 3rd downs (28.9%) over that stretch, fourth lowest passer rating (65.0), and seventh lowest yards per game (281).
Time and again, the Seahawks tried to lose this game. Time and again, the defense found a way to keep hope alive.
The best part of their performance may have been the pass rush. Seattle finished with 10 quarterback hits and 5 sacks from six different players. Uchenna Nwosu led the way with 4 hits and a half-sack.
Nwosu and Darrell Taylor wound up tied for the team lead with 9.5 sacks on the season. Taylor now has 6.5 in his last 6 games.
Even old timer, Bruce Irvin, chipped in with 1.5 sacks.
Two players that stood out were rookies Boye Mafe and Coby Bryant. Mafe has had a muffled first year, with most of his contributions coming in the run game, and often in setting the edge so other players could make a play.
In this game, he made some plays of his own. He had a big sack, and finishes with a respectable 3.0 sacks in his rookie campaign with limited pass rush snaps. Bryant got a sack of his own, tackled wonderfully, and was in solid coverage most of the day.
Bryant finishes his rookie year with 4 forced fumbles, 4 passes defensed, and 2.0 sacks. No other rookie defensive back has had those numbers in at least the last 23 years.
You can look up and down this rookie class, and the story is pretty darn good. Charles Cross has played a solid left tackle. Mafe has been a starter for a good chunk of the year. Kenneth Walker is the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year. Abe Lucas has been a solid right tackle. Bryant put up some historic numbers while playing a new position in the slot. Tariq Woolen made the Pro Bowl and will finish among the top three in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. We do not know what we have in Tyreke Smith as he was on injured reserve all year. Dareke Young had arguably his best game in the last one as he made plays as a runner, a receiver, and on special teams.
It is hard to do much better.
Walker had his third straight 100-yard rushing game, and finished the season as just the second rookie rusher in team history to top 1,000 rushing yards. He did it despite not starting a game until week six, and he missed a game due to injury in that stretch. This was not about a 17-game season. It was legit production.
He ran hard against a Rams defense that was keyed on slowing him down. He could have had a lot more if guys like Bobby Wagner were not in just the right place to stop him on what otherwise would have been long runs.
The Seahawks chances to pull off an epic upset in the playoffs largely ride on how well Walker can produce. In games when he runs for 97+ yards, the Seahawks are 5-1.
Smith has become much more erratic playing quarterback the last few weeks. He had a really rough go in this one. He should have had three interceptions and generally looked far less confident throwing than we have seen for a lot of the year. He did manage to throw a few dimes, including a beauty of a touchdown to Tyler Lockett.
Many of his best plays were made with his legs. His 25-yard scramble at the end of regulation helped setup what should have been the game-winning field goal until Jason Myers missed it.
Smith took a big and dirty hit from villain Jalen Ramsey on that run and was down on the ground for a while before getting up and playing the rest of the game. He may make some absolute face palming decisions, but he is an easy guy to root for.
Seattle ultimately won the game after Quandre Diggs picked off Baker Mayfield in overtime and Myers finally made the winning field goal. Diggs has had something of a renaissance since his truly abysmal performance against the 49ers that saw him drop interceptions and show little effort to make tackles. He has interceptions in the last two games, and had three of his best PFF grades over that stretch, including a sparkling 91.0 in this game to lead the team.
The Seahawks now face the hated 49ers for a third time this season, and second time on their home turf. San Francisco has a massive talent advantage, and has pretty easily handled Seattle in both of the previous games. They are easily the hottest team entering the playoffs, having won 9 straight. They have scored more than 30 points in six of their last eight games. They have won by more than 10 points in six of their last eight games. They have the best defense in football.
Seattle has no business winning this game. There is no way Geno Smith and a bunch of rookies could go in and beat the most talented team in football on their home field and end their season. That would be like thinking the Seahawks could make the playoffs and have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. It is not supposed to happen…
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 242: Seahawks vs Jets Post Game
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5!
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 241
There will be plenty of focus on the Seahawks slim chance to make the playoffs with a win this weekend and a loss by the Packers Sunday night. There will be talk about the chance for a rare sweep against Sean McVay and the Rams, a team that has tormented Seattle since the Jeff Fisher days. What draws my attention on this last week of the regular season is the return of Bobby Wagner to Seattle.
There is a poetic symmetry to the season closing with a home game against Wagner after it started with one against Russell Wilson. This Seahawks season has been as much about Wilson and the Broncos as it has been about Seattle’s own games. It all began with the titanic trade of Wilson in the offseason, and has turned into a Titanic of a season for the Broncos.
Wilson was booed vociferously in the home opener, and played one of his best games in what became a loss when his now-fired coach opted for a crazy long field goal instead of letting his new franchise quarterback attempt to convert a short fourth down. Who knew that would be one of Wilson’s best games of the year?
Seattle was criticized as a fanbase for booing Wilson. People said Seahawks fans were not classy. They were incredulous about how fans could boo a player who had done so much for their franchise. Something tells me there will not be a single story written or tweet shared by anyone outside of Seattle when another 2012 Seahawks draft choice takes the field in an opposing uniform this Sunday and is feted like a hero.
Wagner will not hear a single boo this weekend. It will not be because Seattle fans were shamed into changing their ways. It will be because of the man Wagner is. He never once made the story more about himself than the team. His entourage, if he has one, is invisible. He does not even have an agent. His excellence is unquestioned. The irony is sweet that the guy who never said a word about wanting to be the MVP is the one person on that famed Seahawks roster to earn an MVP vote.
Wagner did not ask to leave. He was pushed out due to age and size of contract. Not only that, but his exit was badly mishandled, with the front office failing to inform him of the decision before he found out online. This is a man who showed respect to every single person in the Seahawks organization, down to the people preparing sandwiches for him in the cafeteria. He deserved far more respect on the way out.
He played probably his best game of the season the last time these two teams played down in Los Angeles. Seattle managed to win on a late touchdown to D.K. Metcalf with Jalen Ramsey covering. It was a perfect outcome in many ways.
This weekend, Seattle gets a chance to exit the season as it started: winning a football game and treating a former player in a way befitting the way he handled himself as a Seahawk and circumstances of his exit.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
This series is sponsored by Sarah and Chris Rood, huge Seahawks fans and Hawk Blogger patrons. Please thank them by contacting them to work with them on your next home purchase or sale in the Seattle area. They will donate an additional $500 to Ben’s Fund for every closed transaction!
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense 
Rams key advantages on defenseAaron Donald will not return this year. That leaves guys like Ramsey and Wagner to carry the load.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseKenneth Walker exited after three carries in the first game. He has been his most consistently productive self the past two weeks. With a chance to end the season over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs, Walker should be a central part of the game plan.
Geno Smith was the hero in the first matchup, nearly winning the game himself as the run game was unproductive and the pass protection was suspect. He threw for almost 370 yards and 3 TDs, including the game-winner.
Metcalf and Tyler Lockett tortured the Rams with 8 and 9 catches, respectively. Troy Hill did not play in the first game and will be back in the slot. That may have some impact on the passing attack. Lockett is also clearly playing at less than 100%. Metcalf versus Ramsey is always must-see football.
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offenseCam Akers and the Rams run game has been much improved of late. What seemed like just the Seahawks typical bad run defense has turned into a late surge by that part of the Rams offense. They also have Baker Mayfield at quarterback instead of John Wolford.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle has found a little more spine on defense, holding the last two opponents under 300 yards and getting to the quarterback more effectively.
Special Teams
These two special teams are pretty evenly matched.
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Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating2 Votes3.8Finesse and speed naturally draw the eye. A receiver tears past a cornerback. A quarterback zips a ball at high velocity. A safety knifes in front of a pass. Our primal instincts give us no choice but to pay attention when an object moves abnormally fast. Perhaps it was a survival instinct that led John Schneider and Pete Carroll to assemble a roster that is loaded with speed. Carroll talked openly about it during training camp. From D.K. Metcalf to Tariq Woolen to Marquise Goodwin to Kenneth Walker to Uchenna Nwosu and more, this Seahawks team can scoot. This season has been the latest proof that no matter how much the league moves to offense and passing and skill players, strength and toughness in the trenches is where most NFL games are won and lost. This Seahawks team has been the weaker team in almost every matchup this year. That was not the case Sunday, and they had their most complete and convincing win in months.
The New York Jets are an easy team to dismiss. They are a comically bad franchise with awful quarterback play. What they have not been this season is weak, especially on defense. Robert Saleh has started to craft a gritty group that features two great cornerbacks and a dynamic interior defensive line. They like to run the ball on offense. They came into this game knowing they needed to win or their playoff hopes were over.
Seattle knew the same was true for them. Both teams had struggled mightily the last few months. Vegas saw all these variables and had the Jets favored by 1.5 points on the road. It would have surprised almost nobody if the Seahawks got beaten by an inspired Jets team that simply pushed them around and showed more grit.
Instead, the Seahawks opened the game with a haymaker. Kenneth Walker III burst through a huge hole opened up by the Seahawks offensive line and raced 60 yards on the first play. Two plays later, the offensive line gave Geno Smith tons of time and a clean pocket to find Colby Parkinson for a touchdown.
Tight ends showed up again on the next series after a Quandre Diggs interception. Seattle brought in Jake Curhan as an extra eligible tackle, indicating a run play, only to have Geno Smith drop back and hit a wide open Noah Fant for 29 yards. They showed up again on the third series when Smith hit Tyler Mabry for his first career reception and touchdown.
This was a game that was going to be difficult for a Seattle offense that is so reliant on their top two receivers to move the ball and has struggled to run the ball with consistency. Shane Waldron did a wonderful job designing a game plan that allowed the offense to function through the tight ends and the running backs.
Walker, who has shown a penchant for home run plays, had one of his most professional games. Explosive plays are great, but effective offenses need backs who will get the 3-5 yards that are there on many runs instead of constantly hunting for the big play by bouncing outside or reversing course and risking negative plays.
Walker listened to Carroll after the first half in Kansas City last week, and became far more decisive and willing to hit the line and push the pile. I was curious if that would carry over to this week, and it did.
Walker had a number of runs between the tackles that had him and his line pushing ahead for 3-5 yards. He sprinkled in some big plays and 1-2 situations where he bounce it outside. That is the right ratio.
DeeJay Dallas had his best game as a pro as well, with nearly 100 yards from scrimmage and career highs in both rushing and receiving yards. His biggest play was a shovel pass from Smith for a huge gain, but his best plays were his runs up the middle that pushed the pile.
The offensive line had a better day. Even if the stats show 4 sacks of Smith, at least two of those were clearly on him.
Seattle was tougher than the Jets defense. That is not something to dismiss.
It was not just the offense. After a shaky first quarter that saw the Jets looking like they were going to break a long run on every handoff, the Seahawks defense held New York to just 19 yards on 11 carries. Seattle tackled well. They were physical.
They even had a pass rush. Darrell Taylor finished with 2.5 sacks, a career-high, which brought his season total to 8.5 sacks, also a career-high. He also had another strip sack, which brings his total to four on the year. All this after a miserable start to the season that saw him benched and barely getting snaps.
Taylor now has 15.0 sacks in his first two seasons of playing (he was a rookie in 2020 but did not play due to injury). Those 15.0 sacks are the most of any player from his draft class in their first 33 games.
Chase Young was selected second overall in that draft and has 9.0 sacks in 26 games. He missed games last year and this year due to injury. Taylor missed games to start his career. Taylor was selected 48th overall.
As much as Taylor has struggled as a run defender, and has been part of the speed versus strength issue, only the most obstinate fan would criticize the value of getting the most productive sack artist in a draft in the second round.
Only Jacob Green has had more sacks in his first two seasons as a Seahawk with 18.0.
It can only be seen as good news that Taylor is demonstrating his value as the season winds down. This team, especially this defense, needs as much talent as it can find. Even if the team decides he might not be the right scheme fit, his trade value is going up.
Taylor looks like a guy who can be a productive part of a rotational pass rush and who will only get better once the Seahawks have an interior defensive line that has anything to contribute in the pass rush. It is probably no accident that Taylor had his best game as a pro in the same game when Quinton Jefferson was productive as an interior rusher.
With the Broncos thankfully losing to the Chiefs yesterday, the Seahawks are guaranteed a top five pick in the draft, where they will hopefully find another great player to add to the defensive line.
A loss would have seen Seattle climb to 10th in the draft with their second first round pick. The win moved them to 19th. It is pointless to debate whether winning or losing is better for the team. Generally, I always prefer winning even if my heads knows a higher draft pick would be helpful. Winning and losing are habits. I would rather see these young players get used to winning than the opposite.
One thing that happened in this game that almost certainly will have offseason implications was losing linebacker Jordyn Brooks to what Carroll deemed an ACL injury in his comments Monday morning. Seattle was already thin at inside linebacker. This draft is not deep at that position and neither is free agency. Schneider will need to be wise about how he invests in that position as an injury this late in the year likely means Brooks will either be unavailable for most of next season or not likely to perform at his best.
Tanner Muse played well in relief. Cody Barton had one of his best games of his career. He even played a screen properly. Seattle would be very limited if they go into next season with those two as their starters.
All those questions can wait another week as the Seahawks playoff hopes are still flickering. They need to beat the Rams at home and have the Lions beat the Packers on the road. It is a very unlikely scenario that could be even less likely if the NFL schedules the Packers/Lions game for Sunday Night, which is the current rumor. Doing that would mean the Lions would know already if the Seahawks had won, thereby eliminating Detroit and reducing their reasons to play their best. I am holding out hope the NFL will prioritize competition over ratings, but I realize that is incredibly naive.
Seattle will, at worst, finish this season with 8 wins, a terrific rookie class that may feature either the offensive or defensive rookie of the year (or both), a Pro Bowl quarterback who has passed for more touchdowns this season than anyone not named Mahomes, Allen, or Burrow, and a top five pick.
It is not the ridiculous outlandish ending that they were on track for mid-year when they were looking to be in good shape to win the division over the most talented team in football in San Francisco, but it is in the top 1% of all possible outcomes.
If the Seahawks want to continue playing tough football this season, I would be happy to continue watching. They have a chance to sweep the Rams, which is never a bad thing. Let us cheer in unison for the Chargers to beat the Broncos and secure a top three pick, and just see where the other chips fall.
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating1 Vote2The Seahawks can play on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday or any other day, and the result is going to be the same: painful football to watch. I wince when I turn on the games nowadays, and don emotional armor resembling a baseball catcher. The one flaw in my protective gear is my eyes remain unobstructed. I see the horror unfold in front of me and wish it was more a Penny Wise-style nightmare that was not real, but consistently find it to be a Freddy Krueger-style, where the wounds do not disappear.
Seattle managed to hold the Chiefs to under 300 yards off offense, and “just” 24 points. They forced Kansas City to punt 6 times, which tied a season high for that powerhouse offense. It did not feel that way. Some of that was due to Patrick Mahomes having what felt like an unfocused game and receivers dropping some passes. The Chiefs did not really appear up for this game. The other part that dulled the Seahawks performance was the total lack of impact plays.
There were no takeaways. There was barely any pressure on the quarterback, and only one sack that happened in the third quarter. There was only one tackle for a loss. Seattle had fewer disasters and limited yards after catch. They defended the run with more discipline.
If you are a playoff team, that is basically a C grade performance. As putrid as Seattle has been lately, the coaches seemed pleased. Part of me hates coddling mediocrity. Part of me understands they are trying to cling to anything positive while leading these players through an absolute unraveling of the season.
We can say with certainty that the defense was not the worst part of this game. That is due, in part, to the offense being putrid. The offensive line, in particular, was awful. The interior offensive line is terrible. Austin Blythe is a bomb in the middle of every play, often causing crippling damage. Gabe Jackson was right there with him. I have nearly given up on the team caring about center enough to prioritize upgrading the position. Right guard, though, has to be a top priority on the offensive side of things.
Seattle desperately needs a quality interior blocker. They also need another receiver. There is nothing after DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Marquise Goodwin has been a decent additional weapon, but there is nobody who can step in as a starter on this team.
Geno Smith was not great in this game, increasing the volume of fans who think they should draft a young QB or not pay Smith. What I see is highly attributable to a weakening offensive line and total lack of running game. Smith has had one game where he carried the team when everything else was going wrong. That was the win against the Rams.
The line was so bad in this game, and the receiving options were so limited, his poor game is not the damning evidence some are making it out to be.
Smith could throw five picks in each of the last two games, and I would still be convinced drafting a QB with that Broncos draft choice would be a terrible decision. There are too many holes on this team to commit to young QB right now. Three of the top four picks need to be on defense, and the one on offense should be an interior offensive lineman or maybe a receiver, depending on who is available.
There is a decent chance the Seahawks could be losing their top five pick, as the Broncos are likely to beat the Rams, which would drop their choice down to around seven. A Rams surprise win would be the biggest holiday present Seahawks fans could hope for.
Similarly, a Packers win would help the Seahawks own draft pick climb higher. Cheer hard for the Cardinals, the Colts, the Rams, the Packers, the Browns, the Saints, the Raiders, and the Panthers. Oh, and the Falcons.
The most promising outcome of this latest loss was the coaching staff seeing that they had something in the run game, and Kenneth Walker III starting to go more upfield instead of bouncing everything outside. He still has a lot to learn there. He is doing a little bit of a Russell Wilson at times where he causes his blockers to lose leverage by running around them instead of running behind them. Check out his decision on the 3rd and 7 run later in the game where he picked the wrong hole and probably missed a big play.
Still, he went over 100 yards, which was good to see. I think this game was available to the Seahawks last week against the 49ers, but the team stayed away from it for some reason. Either way, they are making progress in that part of the offense, and that could have staying power into next season.
Outside of that, there is not much to analyze. Have a happy holiday season, and buckle up for who knows what in the final two games.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 240: Seahawks at Chiefs Preview
Hey folks! This is a matchup of the best offense in football against one of the worst defenses in football in one of the tougher home fields. The only reason this might be a competitive game is the weather. It is supposed to be frigid. That may reduce the amount of points scored, but it will not change the outcome. Seattle should lose this game.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
This series is sponsored by Sarah and Chris Rood, huge Seahawks fans and Hawk Blogger patrons. Please thank them by contacting them to work with them on your next home purchase or sale in the Seattle area. They will donate an additional $500 to Ben’s Fund for every closed transaction!
Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense 
Chiefs key advantages on defenseChris Jones is one of the best interior linemen in the NFL. Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap are productive on the edge. The Chiefs have decent corner play.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseSeattle showed signs of a running game last week but did not leverage it much. You would love to see more toughness in a cold weather game where you are missing your best receiver in Tyler Lockett, but Kenneth Walker seems unlikely to play as well. Geno Smith is better than the quarterbacks the Chiefs have played the last two weeks, and both of those teams put up points on this defense.
Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Chiefs key advantages on offensePatrick Mahomes is the best in the game. Travis Kelce is as well. That should be plenty.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseMahomes has been uncharacteristically careless with the football lately. He had 3 interceptions against Denver and a fumble against Houston. The Chiefs have turned the ball over a lot. Seattle has stopped finding turnovers lately, even when passes are thrown directly to their safety. They will need at least two for this to be close.
Special Teams
The Seahawks are the proud owners of the best special teams unit in the NFL now.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
Thanks to Sarah and Chris Rood for sponsoring this series!
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5!
This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/)
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 239: Seahawks vs 49ers Post Game
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating2 Votes249ers fans streamed into Lumen Field from every direction. Buoyed by their team’s surge and enabled by a waning passion from wary Seahawks fans who were happy to sell their seats, San Francisco fans made this look like an early Christmas with red jerseys speckling the stadium. They came expecting to see their team blow the doors off the weakening Seahawks. This was an unfair fight. The talent imbalance, even with all the injuries to San Francisco, was immense. Seattle’s offense, their strongest unit, was so overmatched by the 49ers defense that it felt like a victory every time they got through a play without turning it over or getting sacked. That the visiting fanbase never got to revel in the blowout they expected was the closest Seattle was going to get to a win on this night.
I had been dreading going to this game. I can handle watching the Seahawks lose. I can even handle watching them lose to the 49ers. What is really tough to tolerate is getting blown out by our biggest rival while being surrounded by obnoxious 49er fans who pretend to be faithful but rarely show up their team stinks.
The final score of this game was misleading, but appreciated. The Seahawks were never really close to winning this game. Yes, Travis Homer had a massively costly fumble that led to what was essentially the dagger touchdown at the end of the first half. Yes, Quandre Diggs dropped an easy interception. Play in, play out, the 49ers were the better team, and on the cusp of a big play each time.
Homer did not just drop the football. He was crushed by two defenders. He still should not have fumbled, but when you get hit that hard, that often, one of your players is usually going to cough it up as some point. Geno Smith fumbled and Seattle was fortunate to get the ball back.
Seattle does deserve credit for playing with such effort and courage against a superior opponent on short rest with meaningful injuries at key positions.
I expected a far worse outcome. I expected a far more helpless defense. Even without Al Woods and Bryan Mone, the Seahawks front seven played with as much physicality as they could and slowed down a dominant San Francisco rushing attack.
Jordyn Brooks went out late and Tanner Muse came in at linebacker. Tanner Muse. The sight of Muse and Cody Barton at linebacker puts only fear in the hearts of Seahawks fans, not opposing offenses. That said, Muse tackled well in his short stint.
There was nothing we saw in this game that indicates the Seahawks problems are solved. It is not even clear to me they can repeat this performance against other teams the rest of the way. This was a bit of an Alamo moment, where you could feel the players giving their all. To put your body on the line like that and still lose, can make it hard to recapture the motivation to do it all over again.
I feel for those guys, and appreciate what they did Thursday night. It reminds me a bit of moment of pick-up basketball I had with a friend many years back.
A player on our team that didn’t know yelled at my friend for not jumping high enough to catch what this guy thought should have been an easy pass that sailed over his head out of bounds. I defended my friend by saying, “That’s all he’s got.” My friend gives me shit about saying that to this day.
When Myles Adams and Shelby Harris and Poona Ford and L.J. Collier are your defensive line, and Barton is one of your linebackers, there is just a limit to how good you can be. The only cure for this defense is an infusion of young talent. That simply will not happen this season, so I am mostly done whipping them, especially in games where they clearly put in maximum effort.
Now, guys who play below their skill level and show less effort will still catch my eye and likely the eye of coaches. Quandre Diggs fits in that bucket.
Forget dropping the interception. His effort on trying to tackle George Kittle multiple times was lacking to the point of looking like he was either making a “business decision” to not put his body on the line or his body no longer allows him to make the plays the NFL demands. Either way, it is looking increasingly like it is time to move on.
Both he and Jamal Adams can be cut after June 1st with positive cap implications. I am definitely ready for them to step away from Diggs, and it’s probably the right cap decision to move on from Adams. Ryan Neal has played well but I don’t believe he has the ceiling we should be shooting for. Neal is a high effort player with physical limits. I love having him on the team. I just think a great defense has him as a third safety, not a starter.
The price of Geno Smith is dropping each week. This game was not his fault, but he is also not playing like an elite quarterback lately outside of that Rams game. There is still zero doubt that re-signing him and using our top picks on defense and interior offensive line is the best way to approach the rebuild. Give Smith a better defense, a more reliable running game, and better interior pass protection and he is plenty good to win a bunch of games.
This defense needs upgrades at 7-8 positions. That must be the focus.
The running game secretly got back on track last night. It made little sense to me why Shane Waldron used it so sparingly. Seattle finished averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and that was not just an explosive play. They were consistently getting at least 3 yards and often got 4-5. Maybe they were unsure of Kenneth Walker’s durability as he was playing through an injury.
One Pro Bowl level player on the interior would be such a massive lift for this team. Austin Blythe continues to be a liability in the middle. Seattle never prioritizes the center position. I hope that changes this offseason.
The Seahawks have a mini-bye week ahead of going to Kansas City where they will play the best player in football and one of the best offenses. They will not win. They likely will not win against the Jets either.
The rest of this season is not about winning or the playoffs. It is about evaluation. Dareke Young should get more snaps, and sadly will due to the injury to Tyler Lockett. Tre Brown should get more snaps. Bring up practice squad players to see if any flash. Give John Rhattigan a chance at linebacker. See if Jon Abram has anything to offer. Sign people off other team’s practice squads.
Pete Carroll probably will not do these things because he believes the team can still win. They will not. We can just hope the Broncos keep losing and the 49ers do not win the Super Bowl. That’s all we got.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 238: Preview of Seahawks vs 49ers on Thursday Night Football
If you have come here looking for the matchup or statistical thread that can be spun into a story for how Seattle can rise up and beat their most hated rival, this is going to be a sobering read. The San Francisco 49ers are the better team in almost all regards. Their strengths also match up with the Seahawks weaknesses, and they already have handed Seattle their most lopsided loss of the season. The only mystery here is whether Seattle can put up a fight or be blown off their home field. The line only favors the 49ers by 3.5 in this one. I see the 49ers and 10+ points better than Seattle, even on the road.
That is the case even with San Francisco already losing their top two starting quarterbacks for the season, and their rookie 7th round pick also injured and playing his first road game in the NFL. Brock Purdy is currently trying to play through an injured oblique. If he doesn’t go, journeyman Josh Johnson will take the helm. Unless either of them decide to repeatedly throw the ball to Seattle or audible out of run plays, it does not really matter who is behind center.
The 49ers are a dominant run team. They have run for over 100 yards in six of their last seven games (96 in the other), and over 120 yards in four of the last five. Seattle has given up 120+ rushing yards in five straight games, over 160 in their last four, over 170 in their last three, and over 220 in two of their last three. Ugh.
Add to that an injury to Seattle’s best run defender, Al Woods, who is unlikely to play and a rush offense that has not broken the century mark in five weeks while also committing at least two turnovers in three straight, and you start to run out of sensible reasons to think this game will be competitive.
The only game script that could make this game a surprise would be if Seattle makes a massive change to their run defense, either choosing to switch to their over front from years past or a players meeting has a surprising effect, and are able to force the game into the hands of whoever is playing quarterback for San Francisco. Seattle would need a turnover or two, while managing to not surrender any themselves. They would probably need a special teams big play, and would need a virtuoso performance from Geno Smith. You never know, right? Narrator: I think we know.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
This series is sponsored by Sarah and Chris Rood, huge Seahawks fans and Hawk Blogger patrons. Please thank them by contacting them to work with them on your next home purchase or sale in the Seattle area. They will donate an additional $500 to Ben’s Fund for every closed transaction!
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense 
49ers key advantages on defenseThis is the best defense in the NFL and it may not be close. They are dominant at the line of scrimmage, at the second level, and are above average in the secondary. They have playmakers at each level as well. Nick Bosa has 5 hits and 2.0 sacks in the first matchup between these teams. Charvarius Ward and Tashaun Gipson both has interceptions. Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, and Azeez Al-Shaair are an elite linebacking trio. Jimmie Ward can be a big playmaker at nickel or safety. Talanoa Hufanga is a handful at safety. Seattle has little hope to get their run game going against the best run defense in the NFL.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseThe closest thing to an advantage that the Seahawks have is their receivers and Smith against the 49ers corners. Emmanuel Moseley was lost for the season. Samuel Womack has been out and is not expected to play. They had hoped Jason Verrett would make it back, but he was lost for the season during practice. That leaves Ward and Deommodore Lenoir at corner, and really nobody behind them. Expect San Francisco to elevate some practice squad players there.
Tyler Lockett had 9 catches for 107 yards in the first game, and that was against a much healthier and talented secondary. D.K. Metcalf had only 4 catches for 35 yards. Success will need to come from the receivers as the tight ends versus these linebackers is probably a losing proposition.
It is hard to imagine a positive outcome for Seattle that doesn’t involve a big game from Metcalf.
One other note is the 49ers starting run-stuffing defensive tackle, Kevin Givens, is unlikely to play. They are already a little thin there. Hard to see Seattle run-blocking well enough for it to matter.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offenseThe 49ers have a solid offensive line, built around arguably the best lineman in football in Trent Williams. They have lost their two starting quarterbacks. They have lost Elijah Mitchell. They have lost Deebo Samuel. Those injuries may impact San Francisco in the playoffs, but should have little effect on this game.
Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Kyle Juszczyk, George Kittle, and lesser known Jordan Mason are still there. The Panthers and Rams had a lot less than that and ran all over this Seattle defense.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseTariq Woolen is good at intercepting footballs. That, truthfully, may be all Seattle has at this point.
Special Teams
Seattle finally got a spark from the return game. Maybe that can continue.
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Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating8 Votes1.5A game like the one the Seahawks played on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers requires little analysis. Even in the era of high-flying offenses that are built on the pass, it will always be true that running the football without resistance from your opponent will put your team in great position to win. Add in some costly turnovers, no running game from your opponent, and no turnovers yourself, and victory is all but assured. The Panthers came in with the mindset that they were going to overpower the Seahawks. They were going to be more physical, more tough, more willful. They did all that, without much trouble in a wire-to-wire victory on the road in Seattle.
I have to admit something. I laughed a lot more than I screamed in this game. For one, I’ve got whatever sore throat cold thing that’s going around and decided this version of the Seahawks were not worth losing my voice. But mostly, it was an act of mental self-preservation more than physical.
The Panthers took the opening kickoff, and got a delay of game penalty before their first snap. On 1st and 15, they ran the ball with extra tackle eligible. They gained a couple yards. On 2nd and 13, they ran again. They gained 3 yards. On 3rd and 10, they ran again, and got the first down. I laughed.
There would unfortunately be no shortage of similar moments throughout this game. Anger comes from a place of heightened expectations. When your expectations have sunk below ground level, bad football becomes a comedic performance of pratfalls and nut punches.
This Seahawks front seven is so bad that I actually feel for them. This is not about a lack of effort. It is a lack of strength and skill, mixed with some stubborn coaching. That this group gave up a mountain of rushing yards again is not surprising at all. Losing Shelby Harris (illness) and Al Woods (heel injury) meant they were playing without their two best defensive linemen. That is never good. It is a death sentence when you are already awful.
There will be people who try to make the case that Geno Smith’s bad game should cause the Seahawks to consider selecting a QB with their top pick next year. We are watching the same game and coming to completely different conclusions.
The benefit of drafting a rookie quarterback is that you get a rookie contract for the most expensive position for 4-5 years. That only matters if: (a) the QB becomes elite (b) the rest of the roster is good enough win a ring (c) you are not spending significant money elsewhere on a QB.
No matter where you take a quarterback, there is a risk they will not work out. Trevor Lawrence was a sure thing. He’s been mostly bad-to-mediocre in the NFL. Trey Lance looks like a bust. Baker Mayfield has been mediocre-to-bad. There are no guarantees. You can, of course, say that about any position.
This roster, though, is in desperate need of an alpha defensive stud on the line. The talent is so bad there that they are at least two great starters away from being competitive. If you hit on a QB, you will still need probably another draft and offseason to raise the ceiling of this team. The chances that a year one or year two QB is going to play above the level we have seen from Smith this year is incredibly small.
If you hit on even an above average starter on the defensive line, especially on the inside at tackle, and spend other picks improving your front seven, this becomes a very clear playoff team with potential to raise the ceiling further with a good run-blocking interior offensive linemen (or two).
There is no plan where it makes sense to let Smith walk in free agency for nothing. That makes drafting a rookie QB even less appealing as you lose the contract advantage for a chunk of those rookie contract years.
It makes so much more sense to make this draft almost completely about the line of scrimmage, run it back with Smith, and leave the rookie QB moment at least a year or two off. It would be fine to draft a QB this year, but not with any pick in the first two rounds.
There are just far too many downsides with going QB with that top pick.
Was Smith’s game yesterday bad? Yes. Would Seattle still have won if they could stop the run? Absolutely.
What is also beginning to make sense is cutting ties with either Quandre Diggs or Jamal Adams in the offseason. There are ways out of both of their contracts with post-June 1 cuts. Seattle could free up significant cap room, get younger, healthier, cheaper, and better.
Basically, every position but cornerback needs to be elevated on this defense. As much as defensive line is the priority, linebacker remains a problem. Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton spend a depressing percentage of time getting blocked out of plays. I have a hard time remembering Barton shedding a block.
As bad as the defense has been, the run blocking on the offensive line is a real problem as well. There has been no room to run for weeks, even when Kenneth Walker III was healthy. A more physical center and guard would make a big difference.
I just generally prefer a roster building approach where a young quarterback is the final piece to the puzzle than one that starts the clock ticking well before the championship window is ready to open. After all, the whole point is to have so much talent elsewhere that you need to spend the bulk of your cap on other positions. That simply is not the case with these Seahawks. Not yet, at least.
The most painful moment of the season may be in front of us. A team with talent oozing from both sides of the ball comes to town Thursday. They are arguably the most physical team in football, and already handed Seattle their most lopsided loss of the year. They are also our biggest rivals and will have a strong presence in Lumen Field.
They are a good example of what a championship roster with a quarterback-sized hole looks like. Seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy has been competent enough to not get in the way of the league’s best defense and a powerful running attack. I see the Seahawks as closer to the Eagles of last year that had a good quarterback in place and needed some key additions to become Super Bowl contenders.
All signs point to this being an absolute embarrassment Thursday night. It may be so bad that laughing is not even a mental health option. Just know that the Seahawks have largely already got what they needed from this season. They have a great draft class. They have a great quarterback. They are going to get a great pair of picks from the Broncos. They know where they need to improve the roster. If your goal is another championship, there is not much left to glean from this season. Eyes forward.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 236: Seahawks vs Panthers Preview
The Seahawks won a game Sunday against a division rival on the road. That is always a good thing. More accurately, Geno Smith and the Seahawks pass attack won that game with little help from other parts of the team. Seattle was once again shameful in run defense and at running the ball.
They have newfound hope, however, that a division title may not be a total fantasy given the 49ers have lost not one, but two, starting quarterbacks. It is a long shot, but any path there reasonably requires a win against this Panthers team.
The problem is that the Panthers, despite their 4-8 record and having Sam Darnold as a quarterback, actually profile as exactly the type of team to give Seattle trouble. Carolina relies heavily on the run game. They are 4-2 when rushing for more than 100 yards, and their only two losses were by 3 points each. For the math challenged out there, that makes them 0-6 when being held under 100 yards on the ground. A much better run defense than Seattle that is toiling away in Denver gave up 185 yards on the ground to the Panthers in Carolina’s last game.
They also have a stronger pass defense than run defense, holding opposing QBs to the 10th worst passer rating of any team in the league. The also have a solid interior pass rusher, where Seattle is weakest on the offensive line.
None of this means the Panthers should win this game. Seattle’s strengths are more valuable than the Panthers, but this projects to be a challenging matchup for the Seahawks, and one they could lose if they continue to stop absolutely nobody on the ground.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
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Seahawks Offense vs Panthers Defense 
Panthers key advantages on defensePlenty of fans probably know the name Brian Burns. He is an up-and-coming edge rusher who has tallied 53 pressures so far this season. Fewer fans know the names Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis. Both play inside and have generated a fair amount of pressure themselves. Brown has 27 pressures and Ioannidis has 28. By comparison, the top interior rusher for the Seahawks is Shelby Harris, who has 23 pressures.
They also have a decent secondary that has managed to limit explosive plays.
Seahawks key advantages on offenseSmith is coming off one of his best games. He will need to carry this team again. The run game will likely be a problem with Kenneth Walker a question mark and the run blocking struggling. Tight ends could again be important, although the Panthers are 12th best in the NFL at defending that position.
Panthers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Panthers key advantages on offenseD’Onta Foreman is a physical running back, who is not as talented as Josh Jacobs, but has similar qualities. Yikes. Chuba Hubbard is not a bad change of pace and receiver out of the backfield.
D.J. Moore is one of the best receivers in the game, and can create big plays. Look for them to isolate on Michael Jackson if Seattle stubbornly insists on playing him again. Sam Darnold has been known to break the pocket and run.
Seahawks key advantages on defenseSeattle’s biggest advantage might be there is an end zone that stops an opponent from continuing to push them endlessly around the planet. How this defense went from so awful to so good to so awful is mind boggling. The possibility remains that they somehow swing back the other way.
This is a bad Panthers offense. Seattle needs them to make mistakes and be bad.
Special Teams
Two of the top special teams units in the NFL clash in this one.
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Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 235: Seahawks at Rams Post Game Show
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating6 Votes3.2In order to truly appreciate what Geno Smith accomplished on Sunday, we must first not talk about him at all. The Los Angeles Rams ran out the worst collection of offensive “talent” in the NFL on Sunday. They were without either starting receiver, their starting QB, a number of offensive linemen, and were playing a RB who had to take leave from the team earlier this season because he was both bad and a malcontent. Even when this team had their starters, they had scored more than 20 points just twice all year. Despite all that, the Seahawks defense made them look almost prolific on the way to giving up 23 points and 171 yards rushing (by far, the Rams season high). As bad as last week’s performance was in giving up over 300 yards to one player, this week was far worse. At least Josh Jacobs is good at football.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks run offense has been as bad as their run defense, but started off this game with a slashing 30-yard burst by Kenneth Walker III. It looked like the good times might be back. They were not. Walker would manage 6 more yards on two more carries before exiting with an ankle injury. DeeJay Dallas came on and then got injured himself right before halftime. Tony Jones Jr. (yes, he is someone who plays for the this team) came on and got hit so hard his contact flew out of one eye, and he had to remove the other one as he had no spare, and played the rest of the game with vision bad enough that he legally would not have been allowed to drive a car.
The running backs also took turns allowing their quarterback to get hit on blitzes. Then the offensive line thought that seemed fun and did it a few times themselves, including one blindside hit that caused a fumble and nearly knocked Smith from the game. On that fumble, Tyler Lockett had a chance to recover but made a business decision to not dive after the ball as Bobby Wagner was in the vicinity.
You are Geno Smith. Your defense is playing so poorly that people without sight are turning away from the TV screen. Your running game is nonexistent. Your pass protection is as bad as it has been this season. You are getting blasted and are in real pain. You even are given an interception on a play where your running back caught the ball and hit the ground before surrendering it to the defender. What do you do?
You have what may be the best game of your career. You put all the beaten and bleeding teammates on your back and you drag them to victory against a very motivated Rams defense. You throw for a career high 367 yards and toss 3 touchdowns, including the last one with just over 30 seconds remaining in the game against a corner who believes he is the best in football.
To be fair, Smith piled up those numbers in partnership with Lockett (9 catches in 12 targets for 128 yards), DK Metcalf (8 catches in 8 targets for 127 yards), and Noah Fant (4 catches in 5 targets for 42 yards), and also had some great pass protection when he was not getting sacked.
Still, this game is one that all but the best quarterbacks would have lost. Step back, and you see Smith is on pace for 31 TDs, almost 4,500 yards, while completing over 72% of his passes.
No player in NFL history has ever had 30+ TDs, 4,000+ yards and completed over 72% of his passes. Drew Brees is the only player to have ever completed more than 72% of his passes with more than 30 TDs in a season.
Smith is not just having his best season and a career renaissance. He is having one of the best statistical seasons by a quarterback in the history of the sport.
This game tape is what Seattle should submit to any MVP voter. This is what MVPs do.
As brilliant as Smith was, there were a few other standouts worth mentioning. Tariq Woolen collected his NFL best 6th interception, which also set the Seahawks rookie record. Like so many of his picks, it looked easy. The best in the game often do that.
Woolen’s best plays may have been on two pass breakups that did not result in a pick. My favorite was on the last drive for the Rams, where Woolen broke on a pass from behind the receiver and jumped around the player to swat the ball down without making contact. It was teaching tape material.
His other pass breakup was nearly as pretty and was close to being another interception.
Woolen finished with more pass breakups (3) than in any other game this season, and is looking more refined as time passes. He will have some tough competition for defensive rookie of the year, but he deserves that award.
Metcalf had one of his best games. Rarely a high efficiency player, Metcalf caught all eight of his targets. He has never had a more efficient game with at least that volume of targets. He did it all while going after Jalen Ramsey verbally and physically. A number of the catches came against a different defender, but make no mistake, this was a brawl between those two. It was absolutely delectable for the game-winning score to come on a pass to Metcalf with Ramsey trailing and helpless.
There is such animosity between those two that I stuck around as the clock wound down and the teams came onto the field to see if they would get into a fight. They did not.
Lockett was his normal dependable self, and as much as I think it is fair to call him out for not going after the Smith fumble earlier, he deserves praise for putting his body on the line to lunge for a big first down on the final drive when facing a 3rd and 10.
Fant played a nice game and seems to be coming on and gaining more trust from Smith. He is now solidly the Seahawks third-most targeted receiver.
It may just be me, but I think Colby Parkinson merits more targets. He has good hands and shows a lot of burst.
I liked what I saw from Tre Brown in his first real action back. He was called for a pass interference that was a good call, but also illustrated the speed and break on the ball ability of Brown. That play demonstrated the difference in ability of Brown versus Michael Jackson. Jackson is a solid backup and occasional starter. Brown may ultimately prove to be a Pro Bowl level corner. That is the upside I see, and want to see far more of him the rest of the way.
Uchenna Nwosu had two more sacks and now has 9.0 on the season. Jordyn Brooks had his first sack of the year, and first since week four of last season. He was shot out of cannon and made every Seahawks fan wonder why he is not sent more often on blitzes.
Brooks is a bit of enigma. He piles up tackles, but almost none of them are at, or behind, the line of scrimmage. He entered this game with only one tackle for loss in 122 tackles. That is awful. The play of the line in front of him clearly is part of it, but if Brooks really wants to be an elite linebacker, it will be through more impact plays like that sack.
The special teams also deserves a shout given they had been such a menace earlier in the season and have quietly been excellent for weeks now.
The news out of Santa Clara is that they have lost their second quarterback for the season. What seemed absolutely a given that they were going to romp to the division title is now in question. Seattle plays the Panthers at home this Sunday. The 49ers play the Bucs. That will be the first game where a defense can prepare knowing about the QB situation. The Bucs defense is decent and their season is on the line each week. If the Bucs can somehow win that game, and the Seahawks do their job against the Panthers (no sure thing), the Thursday night game four days later where Seattle hosts San Francisco could end up deciding the division title.
That seems crazy to even talk about given how bad the Seahawks defense has been. It is also true. There have been so many unexpected twists and turns in this season. Maybe we are in for one more.
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The way of the NFC West is that the Seahawks dominate the 49ers, the 49ers dominate the Rams, and the Rams dominate the Seahawks. Nobody cares about the Cardinals. Coaches have received much of the credit and blame for this round robin of repeating wins and losses. Some of that is fair. Some of it is just trying to push a narrative. Sean McVay, for example, has been given tons of credit for the Rams domination of the Seahawks during […]
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 233: Seahawks vs Raiders Post Game Show
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 232: Seahawks vs Raiders Game Preview
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 231: Seahawks vs Bucs Post Game Show
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 230: Seahawks vs Buccaneers in Germany Game Preview
Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating16 Votes 1.8 There was a time where everyone thought the Seahawks were going to be a very bad team that would be in the running for one of the top picks in the 2023 draft. Then they went on a four week stretch that was impressive enough to take control of their division and have folks talking about making some noise in the playoffs. The last two weeks have revealed the […]
The honeymoon period of the Seahawks season is over. They began with rock bottom expectations, delighted fans with sustained periods of high quality play on both sides of the ball, and now lost a key game against a mediocre team that has left them out of first place for the first time in a few weeks. While sharing the same record as the 49ers, the Seahawks do not own the tiebreaker and will need to outplay their rivals the rest […]
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating10 Votes2Most fans reacted to this relatively close Seahawks loss, where they made a valiant comeback, with a feeling of, “Oh well, this is a rebuilding year and it’s Tom Brady, and you can’t win them all.” I may have been in the same place a few weeks ago. I may have been in the same place one week ago. This Seahawks team, especially the front seven on defense, has been playing above their talent level for […]
Tom Brady has been the best in the business for a long time. A loooong time. He no longer holds that title, and has finally started to show some signs that age matters, even for him. The Bucs entered the year as one of the Super Bowl favorites, right there with the Buffalo Bills. The season has not unfolded as many expected. They are one Rams first down away from being the mirror reflection of the Seahawks at 3-6. They […]
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Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 228: Seahawks @ Cardinals Game Preview vs Giants Game Preview
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 227: Seahawks vs Giants Post Game Show
Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating31 Votes 4.6 There was a time when the Arizona Cardinals were believed to be a franchise on the rise. They had drafted a dynamic playmaker to play quarterback with the #1 overall pick. They swindled the Houston Texans to trade for arguably the best wide receiver in football. They had one of the top pass rushers in the league, and had made some savvy draft picks at safety, corner, and linebacker. […]
The Arizona Cardinals are an odd team. They have some flashy talent at key positions. They have played the NFC elite as if they were one of them, losing by just three points to the undefeated Eagles and by one score versus the Vikings in Minnesota after leading multiple times. They gave Seattle a physical and tough game a few weeks back, slowing down what had been a high-powered Seahawks offense. The only team to hold Geno Smith and company […]
Sitting at 5-3 near the midpoint of the NFL season, atop the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks are defying expectations in 2022. After trading away the franchise quarterback, cutting the leader of the defense, and opting for youth at key positions, the Seahawks were supposed to be starting a rebuild. The success to this point flies in the face of those expectations. Heading into the season, the Seahawks had the 3rd lowest win total betting line at 5.5, a number […]
Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating24 Votes 4.5 Humans are innately wired to be selfish. We care about ourselves, our survival, our happiness. One thing that captivates all humans that snaps us out of our inward focus is watching something happen for the first time. It can be a human wobbling as he pedals away alone on a bike for the first time. It can be an animal, like a foal, wobbling as it takes its first […]
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Seattle enters this game against the 6-1 New York Giants as small favorites (-1 to -3, depending on book). This is arguably the first time all season they should be favored to win a game. The last time they were favored was back against the Falcons in week three, and that did not work out so well. Vegas and the betting public have been rightly skeptical of the Seahawks, but things got out of hand last week when they opened […]
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Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating21 Votes 4.5 There was a time when disrespect united Seahawks fans. Announcers mispronouncing player names would set off Twitter firestorms. Entire panels of “experts” picking against the Seahawks or harshly grading their drafts sparked missives more bitter than than a NW microbrew. Our diminutive former quarterback was the embodiment of this national dismissiveness. Overlooked. Patronized. Irrepressible. The more people doubted Russell Wilson, the more he proved them wrong, and Seahawks fans […]
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My eyes widened when I saw the spread for this game. The Los Angeles Chargers opened as 7.5 point favorites and were holding at 7.0 as this is written. Vegas and the betting public seeing the Chargers as massive favorites over the Seahawks would not have given me a second of pause heading into the season. Seattle, after all, was entering a low expectation season focused on development of young players and quarterback room that was considered the worst in […]
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Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 220: Seahawks @ Saints Game Preview
We all entered the 2022 Seahawks season knowing this team would be going through a transition. The offense would likely be limited by career backup quarterback and rookies on the offensive line. The defense would be a little ahead of the offense with some quality coaches hired and some young stars like Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor stepping forward. About all that… Seattle enters week five with one of the best offenses in football, led by one of the best […]
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Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating18 Votes 3.1 Imagine being a fan of the Detroit Lions. Decade after decade of misery is only partially interrupted by the brilliance of individual players like Barry Sanders or Calvin Johnson. You finally get your franchise quarterback, only to see him win a ring in his first season with another team. Your team is featured on Hard Knocks and becomes one of the more lovable squads the show has introduced to […]
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 218: Seahawks @ Lions Game Preview
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 217: Seahawks vs Falcons Post Game Show
The Detroit Lions have been a doormat of the NFL for decades. They are poster boys for the folly of believing high draft picks equal a trip back to contending. They rarely even win more games than they lose in a year. It feels like they may be on a positive path, though, with their fiery new coach and some promising young players. Their record is still a very typical 1-2, but the story behind it is different. This Lions […]
Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating9 Votes 1.5 It is one thing to say you want a high draft pick, and that your focus is on the development of young players more than on wins. It is another thing to force yourself to watch your favorite team get pummeled week after week. There is no fast forward button on this season. You cannot simulate the remaining games like it is Madden. Your choices are to pry your […]
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 216: Seahawks vs Falcons Game Preview
Get ready, Seattle. Mykal Walker, Ta’Quan Graham, and Drake London are coming to town, and they’re bringing Hell with them. Now, it might be more Hell in the sense that it will be agonizing to watch than intimidation, but it will be Hell nonetheless. Two of the NFLs least talented rosters clash on Sunday in Lumen Field when the 0-2 Falcons battle the 1-1 Seahawks. There will be plenty of murmurs in the stadium as fans turn to each other […]
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 212: Seahawks 2022 Prediction Show
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 211: Preseason Week 3 with Vountee
Game RatingOffenseDefenseSpecial TeamsCoachingReader Rating21 Votes0.1The best part of what was one of the comprehensively worst performances in franchise history is that there is little reason to analyze most of what happened. There is one irony to spend a little time on and one player who showed some improvement from last week. Otherwise, pretty much everyone played bad football against one of the least talented opponents in the league, who were mostly playing their backups. Every facet of the team was […]
Named Best Podcast in Western Washington by King5! This episode is brought to you by Burgermaster (https://burgermaster.biz/), Altitude Homes (https://altitude-re.com/) and Manifest Fit (https://www.manifestfit.com/) Anyone can become a HB Patron at http://patreon.com/hawkblogger Audio Podcast: Hawk Blogger · Real Hawk Talk Episode 210: Preseason Week 2
Game Rating Offense Defense Special Teams Coaching Reader Rating17 Votes 2.8 There was much meaning to be found in a meaningless preseason loss to the Steelers if you knew where to look. Seattle said goodbye to the final pillars of their championship team this offseason when trading Russell Wilson and releasing Bobby Wagner. The moves made the Seahawks significantly less talented in the near-term, with the belief that the resulting draft picks and cap space were necessary to raise the […]
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Every year we gather to watch our Seahawks pluck fresh talent from the bountiful pool of college football. What began as an annual celebration of the Einsteinian brilliance of John Schneider and Pete Carroll jauntily thumbing their noses at the rest of the league and draft analysts by taking Hall of Fame players with absurdly unconventional physical traits for their projected position, in rounds that were so late the networks often just announced them via a ticker on the bottom […]
This is a critical night for John Schneider and the Seattle Seahawks. After moving on from franchise legends such as Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson this offseason, Schneider has a chance to reshape the state of the roster with the highest overall draft pick (No. 9 overall) he has had since the 2010 season. Schneider started his tenure with the three of the best drafts in modern NFL history, but has fallen into a pattern of troubling mistakes in the […]