Spectra Markets: Recent Episodes
Brent Donnelly
Macro commentary and financial market literacy podcasts from Brent Donnelly and other members of the Spectra Markets posse.
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You can buy the full audiobook on Audible here: https://www.audible.com/pd/B0CGG8Z528/?source_code=AUDFPWS0223189MWT-BK-ACX0-364897&ref=acx_bty_BK_ACX0_364897_rh_us.
You can find edge in math, and you can find edge in narratives. The best edge comes from being able to use both.
Market profile is a simple, visual, and technically useful way to look at short-term price action.
Being able to identify, and adapt to, regime change is critical for finding your edge in trading.
This piece is in response to three questions I am very often asked by younger traders: “Is it OK to get back into a position after you have been stopped out? Is it OK to add to a losing position? Is it OK to move your stop loss on a losing position?” My answer to all three is mostly “NO!” But there are times when these three normally-destructive behaviors can be appropriate.
A common sense approach and obvious trades that the market hasn't priced in yet are a great way to find ideas.
Taking a look at the most important traits of good traders, including a recent survey we did.
In order to trade effectively, you don't need to have a certain personality - but you do need to understand your own personality and work with it.
A discussion of how I generate trade ideas for global macro. This example is about USDJPY.
Flat can be good or bad, depending on who you are as a trader. For me now, flat is good.
Buy rumor/sell fact is a common market phenomenon, especially in crypto. Short ETH here into the merge looks like a good trade.
Microstructure helps you identify how, when, and why your market moves. In this episode we talk about one of the most important pieces of microstructure: time of day.
In this episode we talk about pattern recognition, backtesting, and having a good filter for what you see in the markets.
Horizontal lines are sophisticated and useful because they're simple. They often represent something that's actually going on beneath the surface of the market.
In this episode, Brent discusses the ever-difficult question of varying bet size. Topics include conviction vs. accuracy, the Kelly criterion, and historical data.
In this episode, Brent explains why trading bear markets is hard. And he outlines the best tactics for selling into a bear market rally.
In this episode, Brent tees up a guest post by @michigandolf and talks about the implications of the time dimension in risk management, opportunity cost, and mental capital.
In this episode, Brent discusses trends, mean reversion, overbought and oversold signals, and three specific tactical approaches to mean reversion.
In this episode, Brent goes through four different strategies for shorting a stock and explains how to play defense and offense from the short side.
In this episode, Brent discusses a simple way of thinking about thinking where you evaluate not just your totally awesome trade idea, but all the reasons it might not work. Avoid confirmation bias with this CIA-approved style of analysis.
In this episode, Brent explains how simple frameworks can help reduce complexity and filter out noise and make you a better analyst and trader.
In this episode, Brent talks about BTC correlation, MSTR convexity, and his bearish view on ETHBTC.
In this episode, Brent discusses the recent low beta action in crypto, plus some thoughts on "stable"coins and DeFi.
In this episode, Brent talks about relative value trading and why it is so gosh darn hard.
In this episode, Brent discusses the nonlinear relationship between yield and risk, and explains why there isn't much regulators can do when everyone just wants to gamble.
Learn the characteristics of a healthy risk-taking environment and why this environment is absolutely critical.
In this episode, Brent provides a market update (exit tactical bearish crypto view from 04APR) and interviews Gemini VP of trading Clark Read. They discuss crypto, TradFi, and the Battle for the Ring.
n this episode, Brent discusses the well-known euphoria/panic/despair cycle common to most bubbles. Then, he looks at the current state of ARKK and compares that to Janus and CMGI, two 1999 bubble darlings.
In this episode, Brent discusses the difference between sentiment and positioning, and explains how to incorporate both into your trading framework.
In this episode, Brent discusses the difference between sentiment and positioning, and explains how to incorporate both into your trading framework.
In this episode, Brent discusses why it's important to understand the rules of the current game, instead of playing the game according to rules you wish existed. Recognize the moments when the government is intervening in markets, and have a healthy respect for it, even if you find it morally repugnant.
In this episode, Brent discusses why it's important to understand the rules of the current game, instead of playing the game according to rules you wish existed. Recognize the moments when the government is intervening in markets, and have a healthy respect for it, even if you find it morally repugnant.
In this episode, Brent discusses why he thinks crypto is entering a difficult four-week period. The grinding move off the lows encounters major resistance just as tax payments loom and the May 4th Fed meeting nears.
In this episode, Brent talks about the importance of adaptation in trading and why you should not always be a breakout or mean reversion trader. You should adapt to the market.
In this episode, Brent discusses why he thinks crypto is entering a difficult four-week period. The grinding move off the lows encounters major resistance just as tax payments loom and the May 4th Fed meeting nears.
In this episode, Brent talks about the importance of adaptation in trading and why you should not always be a breakout or mean reversion trader. You should adapt to the market.
In this episode, Brent looks at how to use top-down and bottom-up analysis in different asset classes, including global macro. Then, he uses a macro overlay to express his view that stocks are about to roll over as massive overhead resistance in NASDAQ approaches (15100/15250).
A discussion of how to incorporate anecdotal evidence into your process. The Magazine Cover Indicator, The Skyscraper Index, The Stadium Cruse and more. Plus: Short XPO via puts.
In this 15-minute episode, Brent talks about trade structuring. When do you buy options and when are they too expensive? A look at the tradeoffs between cash and options trading.
In this trade, Brent explains the dynamic interplay between narrative and price and why this dynamic makes him bullish bitcoin.
This episode of 50 Trades in 50 Weeks is all about technical analysis and how I integrate it into my process. I use techs as a risk management and tactics tool, not a forecasting tool.
This episode discusses the wide range of options in DeFi, all the way from the ludicrously risky madness of Wonderland to conservative digital income strategies that might be suitable for pension funds.
In this second episode of Fifty Trades in Fifty Weeks, I explain much more about correlation, causaution, third variables, volume spikes and other reasons I think oil is going lower.
Brent Donnelly's latest thoughts on crypto and global macro.
Why BTC has higher expected value than ETH over the next 12 months.
The best time of day to transact large bitcoin.
SAND lockup -- post-mortem.
And a few parting shots.