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In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, open with a cautionary tale from the AI-focused hedge fund Situation Awareness, whose founder went from up over 400% year-to-date to a 67% collapse in July, a stark reminder that concentration, leverage, and liquidity can undo even the best fundamental research.

At the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Walsh's refusal to offer guidance sent long-term yields soaring instead of calming markets, with the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. Sonu explains why nominal GDP growth running near 6-8% (even as real growth stays soft) points to a genuinely inflationary growth environment, and why the bond market, not stocks, may be the real test of the new Fed chair's credibility.

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Oracle are now projected to spend over a trillion dollars in 2027 alone, close to 3% of GDP, with Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for showing results while Meta and Oracle get punished for spending without proof of ROI. They close with a look at GDP internals showing AI investment now accounts for over 40% of real GDP growth, banks breaking out to new highs as a bullish signal, a weakening dollar, and seasonal risks heading into August and September.

[Key Takeaways]

• Situation Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund, went from up over 400% year-to-date to down 67% in July after a concentrated, leveraged bet unwound, forcing a distressed sale of stock holdings to Citadel.
• Fed Chair Walsh's press conference offered little forward guidance, and long-term yields spiked in response, with the 30-year Treasury hitting its highest level since 2007 and 30-year mortgage rates climbing from 5.9% to 6.7% over the last five Fed meetings despite no rate changes.
• Nominal GDP growth has averaged 5.8% over the last six quarters (7.9% in Q2 alone), well above the 2010-2019 trend of 4%, supporting the view that this is an inflationary growth environment even as real GDP growth lags at 1.9%.
• The five largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) are now projected to spend over $1 trillion in CapEx in 2027 alone, up from earlier 2026 outlook estimates of $600 billion, with markets rewarding companies showing revenue results (Microsoft, Amazon) and punishing those that aren't (Meta, Oracle).
• AI-related hardware and software investment accounted for roughly 42% of real GDP growth over the last six quarters and now represents about 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak proportion seen during the dot-com boom.
• Bank stocks (KBE) are breaking out to new highs after a base dating back to 2007, a signal Ryan argues is historically a positive one for the broader bull market, even as seasonally weak August and September approach in a midterm year.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And Quick Banter

1:25 - Live Boston Show Announcement

3:24 - AI Hedge Fund Blowup Lessons

9:39 - Fed Meeting And Market Whiplash

16:47 - Nominal Growth And Sticky Inflation

28:37 - Hyperscalers March Toward One Trillion

32:34 - Earnings Reactions From Big Tech

43:45 - GDP Under The Hood And AI Share

48:56 - Markets Sideways Seasonality And Banks

53:33 - Dollar Drop International Angle And Wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into Apple reclaiming its title as the world's largest company by market cap after sitting out the AI spending race, while hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft pour ever-larger sums into CapEx. They break down record Q2 blended earnings growth of 38% year-over-year, the outsized role investment gains in private holdings like SpaceX and Anthropic played in Google's headline profit beat, and
why core net income tells a different story.

The conversation shifts to the "chip crash" playing out in South Korea, where the KOSPI has fallen more than 30% from its June 22 peak amid margin calls and central bank rate hikes, and what that says about crowded momentum trades and the explosion of leveraged ETF products tied to tech and semis. Ryan and Sonu also cover the rotation into low volatility, financials, and healthcare, why flows into tech remain historically stretched even after the pullback, and preview this week's Fed decision amid unusually high rate-hike odds. They close with a
personal update on Ryan's eye surgery, a shoutout to guest and TrendLabs Founder JC Parets' record-breaking episode, and details on the live 200th episode show in Boston.

[Key Takeaways]

• Apple overtook NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap (~$4.9 trillion) after largely sitting out heavy AI CapEx spending, while free cash flow for semiconductor companies surpassed hyperscaler free cash flow for the first time this quarter.
• Q2 blended S&P 500 earnings growth hit 38% year-over-year, the best pace since Q3 2021, driven largely by tech (+65%), energy (+128%), and communication services (+112%); excluding Google, growth drops to 26%.
• A large share of Google's reported profit surge came from investment gains in private holdings (SpaceX, Anthropic) rather than core operations, a pattern also inflating net income at Amazon, NVIDIA, and Microsoft.
• South Korea's KOSPI fell roughly 33% from its June 22nd peak (before a further 10% one-day drop) as margin calls and a Bank of Korea rate hike hit heavily levered chip and momentum trades.
• Momentum's one-year excess return over the S&P 500 pulled back from the 96th to the 75th percentile relative to the last 40 years, while low volatility stocks are up 8% and financials up 11% since the market's June 2nd peak.
• Fed rate-hike odds this week sit near their highest pre-meeting level in recent memory, with the committee reportedly divided as inflation, a resilient labor market, and AI/Middle East-driven cost pressures complicate the outlook.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And Quick Setup

0:31 - Apple Reclaims Top Market Cap

5:16 - AI Capex Arms Race Reality Check

8:35 - Record Margins And Earnings Surge

16:44 - South Korea Sparks Chip Crash

23:49 - Ryan’s Eye Patch Surgery Story

29:58 - Why Tech Flows Look Crowded

35:28 - Leveraged Products And Margin Call Risk

42:40 - Rotation Into Low Vol And Defensives

46:57 - Contrarian Thinking Versus Momentum

54:41 - Interstellar Detour And Time Talk

57:19 - Fed Uncertainty And Rate Hike Odds

1:02:16 - Live Boston Show And Final Thanks

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal.

The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene.

[Key Takeaways]

• The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names.
• Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America.
• Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools.
• The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession.
• Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size.
• Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof

2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull

9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds

10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up

12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks

15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears

24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality

30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers

34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs

39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety

42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow

48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers

55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals

58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher.

The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest.

[Key Takeaways]

• Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%.
• AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter.
• Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion.
• S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials.
• The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims.
• Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup

1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target

5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP

9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels

14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal

17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech”

18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher

27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone

31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing

35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation

42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns

49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers

52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up

57:08 - Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble.

The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook.

[Key Takeaways]

• The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago.
• Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP.
• Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft.
• AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials.
• Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average.
• The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones

0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally

3:26 - What Really Drove Returns

8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation

16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats

23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management

28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story

32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era

42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership

47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market.

The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished.

From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs.
• While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record.
• Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early.
• While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings.
• Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion.
• Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace.
• While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years.

Jump to:

0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders

6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation

9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts

16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons

27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing

33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits

35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets.

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions.

Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%.

Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet.

Key Takeaways:

• Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history.
• Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight.
• The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish.
• After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero.
• Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday.

Jump to:

0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day

3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed

8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement

13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock

19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise

24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure

28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed

34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot

37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check

40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation

53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible.

Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%.

The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive.

On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately.

Key Takeaways:

• NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199.
• The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate.
• When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen.
• Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data.
• Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't.
• A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits.

This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026, prior to the SpaceX IPO on 12 June 2026. Comments and opinions expressed at time stamp 18:40 and beyond regarding SpaceX and its anticipated public offering reflect information available at the time of recording.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff

0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco

1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler

2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser’s Curse

9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team

10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much

18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks

24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission

25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving

34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy

38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust

41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect

45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off

45:42 - Important Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago.

The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI.

From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface.

Jump to:

0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions

1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means

6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism

12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI

16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost

21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different

30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers

36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds

41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion

47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing Thanks

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market.

The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows.

From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains.
• Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure.
• SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months.
• At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return.
• A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract.
• Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question
1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally
10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders
14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check
15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates
20:48 — Google funds AI data centers
26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats
29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes
43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

SpaceXIPO #FactsVsFeelings #investing #stockmarket #AI #techinvesting #IPO #smallcaps #SP500 #bullmarket #NVIDIA #Starlink #Anthropic #OpenAI #marketanalysis #portfoliomanagement #indexfunds #WallStreet #fintech #CarsonGroup

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In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect.

It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top.

Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm.
• Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy.
• Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment.
• Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership.
• Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating.
• Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going

Jump to:

3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices

6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate

8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals

13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows

21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches

25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership

33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak

37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks

45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings

48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching

50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details

54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks

1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating.

When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors.

From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening.

Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed.

The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on.

Key Takeaways:

• The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly.
• AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms.
• S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%.
• The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment.
• The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed?

6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair

13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data

21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice

34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash

43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending

49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final Thoughts

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999?

The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then.

From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway.

Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids.

Key Takeaways:

• Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did.
• The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today.
• AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story.
• The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average.
• The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis.
• The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question

2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes

6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment

10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons

15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps

22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals

33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks

41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break

49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn

54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month.

The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June.

From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it.

Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's.

Key Takeaways:

• "Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely.
• Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq).
• The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve.
• Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends.
• Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August.
• The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce.

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch

1:37 — Sell in May Reframed

6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality

10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months

14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness

22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist

35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices

44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift

50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks

53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Jeff:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/

• X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out!

On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.

The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds.

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows.
• Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded.
• Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next.
• Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years.
• WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped.
• Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story.
• Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup

1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock

6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low

11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money

13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha?

16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start

21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate

22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift

26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained

29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check

32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What?

36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett

41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times.

Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance.

They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative.

Key Takeaways:

• Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just Nvidia
• Intel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining traction
• AI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTD
• Earnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big Tech
• Consumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same time
• Services inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above target
• The Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cuts
• GDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominal

Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff

1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer

6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout

10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative

14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally

18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze

22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain

25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment

37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target

52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion

59:30 Where to Follow and What's Next

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Talmon:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/

• X: https://x.com/talmonsmith

Connect with Josh:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/

• X: https://x.com/_JoshSchafer

Questions? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in?

Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market.

The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here.

Key Takeaways:

• The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just relief
• Forward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the index
• Margin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns
• Consumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flat
• Telecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified models
• Bull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historically
• Ryan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year

Jump to:

0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup

0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons

3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule

8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role

9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally

16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy

22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples

29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials

37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence

44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth

47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends

50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story

53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026?

56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.

In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.

The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.

If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.

Jump to:

0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction

2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis

6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics

10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins

20:50 The Double Blockade Explained

27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets

29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction

33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative

36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation

50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent

57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing

Connect with Ryan:

• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Rory Johnston:

• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/

• X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party?

Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot.

The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life.

Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways:
- Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk.
- Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities.
- The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration.
- Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign.
- Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever.
- Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher.

Jump to:
0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines
2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check
8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History
14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk
18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation
23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators
30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos
34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most
42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check
49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead
53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/
• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/
• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:

FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook

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In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio.

They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices.

On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years.

The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State.

Key Takeaways:

• Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional power
• A tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopolitics
• The S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwinds
• Forward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisis
• No bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual pattern
• Mega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrived
• Diversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working

Jump to:

0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist

2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control

5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage

9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals

11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade

16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth

18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags

22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained

35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing

41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us

48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades

56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer.

Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance.

They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally.

Key Takeaways:

• Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in control
• Tech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded history
• Private credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet, and what to watch
• The Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient?
• Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean something
• Diversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lesson

Frank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros

6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly

11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally

22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate

30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line

43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending

52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Sam:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/

• X: https://x.com/SamRo

Connect with Frank:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/

• X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In Episode 180 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss a volatile market environment shaped by inflation concerns, rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. They break down why a rough week in markets may not be as unusual as it feels, how inflation is changing the way investors should think about diversification, and why bonds may not provide the same protection they once did.

The conversation covers risk-on signals inside the market, falling consumer staples, rising yields competing with dividend stocks, and why inflation regimes change which sectors win and lose. They also discuss Federal Reserve policy challenges, why inflation may remain stubborn, and how corporate earnings and margins continue to support the broader bull market despite volatility.

They also explore market history, including how often 5% pullbacks turn into corrections or bear markets, why midterm years tend to be more volatile, and why long-term investors should expect pullbacks as the cost of investing.

From diversification strategies and managed futures to investor sentiment extremes and earnings growth trends, this episode focuses on separating short-term fear from long-term market reality.

Key Takeaways:

• Pullbacks are normal: 5–10% dips rarely become bear markets
• Inflation shifts winners: Sectors and diversification strategies matter more than ever
• Bonds may not hedge: Rising yields challenge traditional allocations
• Sentiment extremes can signal opportunities: Record bearishness can be a contrarian buy
• Earnings remain a tailwind: Margins and profits continue supporting the bull market

Jump to:

0:00 – Welcome!

1:06 – Disney Update & Livestream Announcement

2:02 – Monday Rally Then a Rough Week

4:18 – Iran Talks: Rumors vs Reality

8:50 – Risk-On Signals Inside the Market

12:19 – The Fed’s Inflation Problem Returns

19:51 – Favorite Finance Movies

21:49 – Chuck Norris Tribute & Jokes

25:04 – How 5% Pullbacks Usually End

30:35 – When Bonds and Gold Don’t Hedge

37:03 – Travel Chaos, TSA, Clear & Thanks

40:54 – Midterm Year Volatility & Closing

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

[inflation regime investing, market volatility midterm years, federal reserve inflation problem, diversification in inflation environment, bonds vs stocks inflation, managed futures diversification strategy, investor sentiment indicators, stock market pullbacks history, earnings growth stock market outlook, interest rates and equities, portfolio diversification strategies, macroeconomic investing outlook, inflation and profit margins, market corrections vs bear markets]

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The most dangerous shortages are the ones you don’t see coming. What happens when global oil flow is disrupted and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a bottleneck for the world economy?

In Episode 179 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down what really happens when energy markets get stressed. From the difference between Brent crude and WTI crude to why strategic reserves can’t fix everything overnight, the conversation moves beyond gas prices and into the full inflation chain. They explore how diesel, shipping costs, helium supply, and fertilizer prices all connect—and how those pressures can quietly show up later in food prices and global growth.

From bearish sentiment and ETF outflows to why rallies often start when positioning gets crowded, they look at what investors may be missing. The discussion touches on tech and software as “cash flow now” plays, the resilience of Bitcoin, and how crypto and stablecoins could play a role when global trade gets constrained.

Key Takeaways:
• Hidden shortages matter: Supply shocks ripple far beyond what shows up at the pump
• Inflation chain reaction: Energy impacts shipping, agriculture, and food prices over time
• Market positioning: Extreme sentiment can set the stage for sharp reversals
• Alternative assets: Tech and crypto may behave differently during inflation stress
• Policy impact: Energy disruptions complicate the outlook for rate cuts and inflation expectations

Jump to:

0:00 Welcome and St. Patrick’s Day

1:15 The 11:30 PM Doorbell Mystery

5:50 Oil Prices And The Sweet Spot

8:05 Strait Of Hormuz Supply Shock

12:40 SPR Release And The Shortfall

16:40 Fertilizer Prices And Food Inflation

18:55 Market Bounce After A Rough Stretch

26:00 Sentiment Extremes And Capitulation Signals

33:50 Tech Leadership And Software Resilience

40:30 Bitcoin Strength And A Crypto Theory

46:00 Private Credit Fears And Financials

52:55 The Fed Trapped By Inflation

1:04:15 Closing And Live Stream Details

1:07:25 Standard Investing Disclosures

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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Recorded live from the beach at Future Proof in Miami, this special episode of Facts vs Feelings brings Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to the main stage for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro, and the forces driving today’s volatility.

Against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting news cycle, Ryan and Sonu break down the dramatic swings in oil prices, the implications of geopolitical tensions for global markets, and what it all means for investors navigating an environment of inflationary growth. They also discuss why they remain constructive on equities despite recent volatility, how global market breadth is expanding beyond the U.S., and the portfolio positioning they believe makes sense in the current environment.

From Fed policy and inflation trends to the strength of the labor market and signals from credit markets, the discussion highlights the difference between headline-driven fears and the underlying data shaping the economic outlook. Ryan and Sonu also explore where their outlook could be wrong, including risks tied to gold, small caps, and shifts in monetary policy.

Key Takeaways

• Oil volatility matters: Large swings in energy prices can ripple through inflation, global trade, and market sentiment
• Inflation may remain sticky: Core inflation near 3 percent could limit how aggressively the Federal Reserve cuts rates
• Global markets are broadening: International equities have been contributing meaningfully to returns alongside U.S. stocks
• Labor markets remain resilient: Low layoffs and steady income growth continue supporting the economy
• Portfolio diversification still matters: Exposure across global equities, gold, and selective sector positioning may help navigate uncertainty

Jump to:

0:00 — Opening and Live Show Setup

1:18 — Live from Miami!

3:20 — Oil Market Whiplash and Why It Matters

6:25 — Portfolio Positioning: Stocks, Gold, and Bonds

9:05 — Signs of a Global Bull Market

11:20 — Midterm Year Volatility and Market Corrections

13:55 — The Fed, Inflation, and the Labor Market

17:40 — How Carson Research Supports Advisors

19:40 — Where Our Outlook Could Be Wrong

23:20 — Signals from Tech, Staples, Credit, and Crypto

28:40 — CPI, PCE, and Final Thoughts

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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Artificial intelligence continues to dominate headlines and investment flows, but understanding the technology behind it requires looking beyond the hype and into the structure of the ecosystem itself. In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Steve Hou of Bloomberg and Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore how the AI economy actually works, from the infrastructure powering it to the applications beginning to reshape industries.

The conversation moves through the full AI stack, including semiconductors, computing power, models, and software layers, while also examining how competition, innovation, and investment are shaping the next phase of the technology cycle.

Key Takeaways

• The AI stack matters: Chips, infrastructure, models, and applications each play a distinct role in the ecosystem

• Compute demand keeps expanding: AI adoption continues to drive demand for semiconductors and data infrastructure

• Competition is accelerating: Innovation across companies may push AI models toward commoditization

• Productivity gains will vary: Some sectors may see faster AI-driven improvements than others

• Markets are pricing the shift: Investor expectations around AI continue shaping technology and equity markets

Steve Hou and Kai Wu are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:02 — Opening And Guest Intros

1:46 — Kai And Steve’s Quant Backgrounds

6:56 — Two ChatGPT Moments And AI Agents

10:45 — Compute Demand And Industrial Tailwinds

17:03 — Models Commoditize, Orchestration Rises

23:39 — AI, Inflation, And Energy As Constraint

31:17 — Europe, Korea, And Defense Capacity

38:02 — Software’s Reset And Duration Risk

46:30 — Timelines, Diffusion, And S-Curves

53:05 — Active Selection Across Regions

59:15 — Building Firms With AI Force Multipliers

1:03:49 — Mentors, Simplicity, And Implicit Knowledge

1:05:44 — Closing And Disclaimers

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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Oil spikes. Gas jumps above $3. Inflation expectations shift in a matter of days. Suddenly the market isn’t debating disinflation or AI productivity. It’s asking whether we’re entering a new inflation shock.

In Episode 177 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, walk through what’s happening beneath the headlines. They explain how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is impacting oil flows, why gasoline prices move markets faster than geopolitics, and how rate-cut expectations shifted dramatically in just one week. The conversation moves from energy markets to ISM prices paid, AI-driven infrastructure demand, memory chip shortages, and what this means for inflation volatility in the years ahead.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil shock hits fast: Disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude and gas prices sharply higher, immediately shifting inflation expectations

• Rate cuts repriced: Markets quickly reduced expectations for multiple Fed cuts as inflation data and energy pressures mounted

• Inflation volatility regime: Elevated base inflation combined with external shocks increases the risk of short-term price spikes

• AI demand adds pressure: Infrastructure buildout and memory chip shortages are contributing to near-term pricing strength

• Economic backdrop still stable: Leading indicators suggest the economy entered this period near trend, not in recession territory

• Portfolio construction matters: We believe diversifying beyond traditional bonds remains critical in a more inflation-sensitive world.

Jump to:

0:02 — Setting The Stage: Problems Pile Up

1:08 — Gas Price Surge Hits Home

2:46 — Markets Sell Off And Tech’s Role

3:43 — Oil Jumps And Strait Of Hormuz Risk

6:15 — Energy, Diesel, And Food Cost Pressures

8:38 — Firsthand Gulf Perspective And LNG Shock

12:35 — Portfolios For 3% Inflation World

16:24 — Gold, Bonds, And Risk-Off Mechanics

20:07 — Fewer Fed Cuts And PCE vs CPI

24:55 — Small Caps, Rates, And Risk Appetite

28:40 — Fed Independence And Politics Reality

32:48 — Inflation-Volatility Regime, Not The 1970s

36:48 — Diversify Your Diversifiers Strategy

40:25 — VIX Spike And Geopolitics Playbook

45:10 — Trend vs Recession: Leading Indicators

49:22 — ISM PMI: Expansion But Price Pressure

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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The Social Hour format loosens things up, and this time Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Cullen Roche, founder of Discipline Funds and author of Pragmatic Capitalism and Your Perfect Portfolio.

What makes this conversation different is Cullen’s dual lens. He thinks like a macro investor, but he builds portfolios like a financial planner. That combination leads to a deeper discussion around matching assets to liabilities, duration, inflation realities, and how advisors should think through long-term construction instead of reacting to headlines.

Key Takeaways:

• Narrative vs. numbers: Headlines move quickly, but underlying data often tells a steadier story
• Sentiment remains dynamic: Investor positioning continues to shift alongside economic signals
• Leadership rotation continues: Sector performance reveals subtle changes beneath the surface
• Macro themes persist: Growth, inflation, and policy remain central drivers of direction
• Perspective matters: Long-term discipline still anchors sound decision-making

Cullen Roche is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by this individual may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live Kickoff And Colin’s Books

2:50 - First Principles Over Financial Noise

6:10 - Origins Of Pragmatic Capitalism And QE

11:30 - From Anonymous Blogger To Public Voice

13:40 - We’re Savers, Not Stock Pickers

17:53 - Inflation Jitters And Market Divergences

23:30 - Diversification Vs Diversification

28:20 - Simplicity, Costs, And Portfolio Design

32:40 - Behavioral Bias: You Are The Risk

38:00 - Macro Claims And What Doesn’t Compute

44:00 - AI’s Disruptive Decentralization

50:10 - Labor, Layoffs, And Data You Can Trust

55:20 - Small Caps, International, And Factors

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Connect with Cullen:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cullenroche/

• X: https://x.com/cullenroche

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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A Supreme Court decision wipes out a major tariff mechanism, GDP comes in softer than expected, and AI fears collide with an AI spending boom. On the surface, it feels like three separate stories. In Episode 176 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, connect the dots and ask a bigger question: what actually changed, and what simply made headlines?

They break down the Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs, what it means for policy going into a midterm year, and why markets barely flinched. From there, the conversation shifts to fourth-quarter GDP, where a weak headline number masked far stronger private demand beneath the surface. The episode then moves into the AI debate, examining the surge in hardware and software investment, the role of energy and power demand, and the viral “AI crash” scenario that sparked fears of a white-collar doom loop. Along the way, they explore global market leadership, sector dispersion, and why human behavior still sits at the center of economic outcomes even in a world shaped by algorithms.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariff authority reset: The Supreme Court’s ruling removed a major executive tariff tool, reinforcing checks and balances while reducing policy uncertainty

• GDP weakness needs context: A government shutdown distorted headline growth, while private demand remained solid

• AI spending is real: Hardware and software investment tied to AI contributed meaningfully to 2025 growth

• Scenario vs. reality: Extreme AI displacement models raise important questions, but macro consistency and demand dynamics matter

• Market dispersion is widening: Software weakness, industrial strength, and global outperformance highlight a split beneath the surface

Jump to:

0:00 — Tariff Shock And Supreme Court Ruling

5:30 — Market Reaction, Odds And Policy Limits

9:40 — Tariff Refunds And Who Ultimately Paid

13:50 — China, Trade Winners And Political Timelines

22:00 — GDP Miss Explained And Core Demand Strength

31:00 — AI Capex Surge: Chips, Software And Scale

35:00 — Power Demand, Energy And Inflation Pressures

38:30 — The AI Doom Loop Scenario Debate

47:40 — Market Split: Semis, Software And Global Leaders

55:00 — Portfolio Implications And The Human Edge

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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Markets keep climbing, headlines keep swinging, and yet sentiment still feels stuck somewhere between cautious and confused. In Episode 175 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, zoom out to examine what is actually driving markets right now and where investors may be misreading the signals. From shifting expectations around growth and inflation to the way earnings, liquidity, and policy are interacting beneath the surface, they separate the emotional narrative from the measurable data.

The conversation moves through current market leadership, valuation concerns, recession odds, and the risks that deserve attention without overreacting to every headline. They also explore what history suggests about similar environments, how positioning can amplify volatility, and why staying disciplined often feels hardest right when it matters most.

Key Takeaways:

• Earnings remain the foundation: Corporate profits continue to anchor market strength, even as narratives shift week to week
• Sentiment lags fundamentals: Investor psychology still reflects caution despite improving breadth and resilient data
• Policy and liquidity matter: Rate expectations, fiscal dynamics, and capital flows are shaping the next phase of returns
• Volatility is part of the process: Pullbacks and headline shocks fit within historical patterns of ongoing expansions
• Discipline beats drama: Long-term investors benefit more from structure and perspective than from reacting to every news cycle

Jump to:

0:00 - New Titles And Warm-Up Banter

2:42 - Framing A Tale Of Two Markets

5:10 - Sector Splits And Market Breadth

11:55 - Global Equity Strength And Style Shifts

16:30 - AI Shockwaves Across Industries

22:40 - Tech’s Three Tracks: Software, Semis, Telecom

27:35 - Short Interest, Contrarian Signals In Tech

31:30 - International Rallies And Country Leaders

37:15 - Jobs Revisions And Labor Market Reality

44:20 - Youth Employment, AI Fears, And Data

50:05 - Spurious Correlations And Market Folklore

56:20 - CPI Details, Shelter Math, And Services Heat

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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After a brutal stretch for software, AI-linked stocks, and crypto, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to ask a familiar question: are markets reacting to real deterioration, or replaying last year’s fear cycle with new headlines? As Claude-triggered concerns ripple through software and hyperscalers, they unpack their theories on why prices have fallen far faster than earnings, how valuation compression has reached levels not seen in over a decade, and why sentiment has turned sharply negative even as the S&P 500 flirts with new highs.

From there, the conversation widens. Ryan and Sonu connect record-setting AI capital spending to broader profit growth, explain why global markets like Japan and emerging economies are quietly leading returns, and revisit Bitcoin’s drawdown through the lens of software, risk appetite, and historical market behavior. Along the way, they explore why recessions remain elusive amid massive fiscal and corporate investment, why breadth continues to improve beneath volatile leadership, and why moments that feel uncomfortable often end up shaping the next leg of the cycle.

Key Takeaways:

• AI fear is recycling a familiar playbook: Software and tech selloffs reflect sentiment shocks more than collapsing fundamentals
• Valuations reset without earnings damage: Multiple compression has driven declines even as forward profit expectations rise
• Capex is reshaping the cycle: AI investment has reached historic levels with implications for growth, margins, and inflation
• Global leadership is expanding: Japan and emerging markets are outperforming as breadth improves outside U.S. megacaps
• Volatility feels louder than it is: Flat index returns mask sharp rotations that reward discipline over reaction

Jump to:

0:00 — Kicking Off With Sports And Stocks

1:08 — Deja Vu: Tech Turmoil Returns

3:18 — The Claude Crash And Software Selloff

7:45 — Valuations, Momentum, And Narrative Risk

12:45 — Hyperscalers’ CapEx Arms Race

18:55 — Bitcoin, Correlations, And Sentiment

25:10 — Global Rotation: Japan Surges, Dollar Softens

30:20 — Dow 50K, Compounding, And Milestones

34:30 — Earnings Strength And Multiple Math

39:20 — Upcoming Data, Outlook, And Closing

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, went live for the very first Facts Vs Feelings: Social Hour livestream on Friday, 1/30.

They kicked things off with special guest Brian Belski for a relaxed, wide-ranging conversation that blended big-picture macro, markets, and a bit of fun along the way.

Jump to:

0:00 - Live Stream Kickoff And Banter

3:45 - Belski’s Background And Career Arc

12:30 - Founding Humilus And Investing Philosophy

20:10 - Gold’s Selloff, Fed Debates, And Inflation

31:00 - Secular Bull Market Case And History

40:05 - Travel Detour And Airport Talk

45:10 - Earnings Versus Multiples And Tech Leadership

53:00 - Financials, Mid Caps, And Small Cap Opportunity

1:00:00 Advisors, Building A Firm, And Contrarian Mindset

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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After a quiet data week and a loud political signal, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what a potential Fed leadership shakeup could mean for rates, markets, and investor expectations. With Kevin Warsh emerging as the likely next Fed chair, the discussion cuts past headlines to examine his long history at the Fed, his shifting stance on inflation and rate cuts, and why markets may be less willing to take his guidance at face value.

It’s been one of the most volatile stretches for metals in decades, as gold and silver experience sharp pullbacks after a historic run. Ryan and Sonu break down why positioning and sentiment mattered more than headlines, and along the way, they connect the dots between capital-intensive tech investment, the emerging commodity supercycle, and why earnings strength continues to underpin equities despite leadership rotation and policy noise.

Key Takeaways:

• Fed leadership uncertainty adds friction, not clarity: Kevin Warsh’s record reveals a pattern of convenient pivots that may limit his influence over a skeptical committee
• Rate cuts face structural resistance: Markets are pricing fewer long-term cuts as capital investment and nominal growth keep upward pressure on rates
• Metals volatility was about positioning, not fundamentals: Extreme bullish sentiment set the stage for sharp pullbacks despite intact long-term trends
• Gold and silver require sizing, not timing: Volatility, correlations, and rebalancing matter more than chasing short-term price moves
• Earnings continue to justify the bull market: Strong margins, industrial strength, and resilient consumer spending support risk assets even as leadership rotates

Jump to:

0:00 - Setting The Stage: No Jobs Data

1:06 - Who Is Kevin Warsh

4:30 - Warsh’s Crisis-Era Record

9:10 - Politics, Hawks, And Rate-Cut Reality

14:20 - Balance Sheet Beliefs Challenged

19:45 - Gold And Silver’s Wild Swing

25:40 - How To Own Metals Wisely

31:10 - From Software To Capex Supercycle

36:50 - Productivity, Labor, And Rates

41:30 - Fun Signals: Super Bowl And January

46:05 - Earnings, Margins, And Momentum

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold’s breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets.

They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don’t align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect.

Key Takeaways:

• Gold’s message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection
• The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder’s emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks
• Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2%
• Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers
• Policy noise doesn’t derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves

—

Check the 23 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2026:

https://kitc.es/4pWNyA9

Jump to:

0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes

2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained

8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation

14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold

19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets

23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up

30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today’s Different

38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds

42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth

48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk

53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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After a long stretch of calm markets and steadily improving breadth, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, confront a sudden return of volatility driven by geopolitics, tariffs, and rising bond yields. They walk through why renewed trade threats tied to Greenland are unsettling markets, how bond yields are once again asserting their influence over policy and risk assets, and why metals are responding more decisively than equities.

Along the way, they assess the durability of the bull market by digging into household balance sheets, leverage, labor dynamics, and the expanding leadership beyond mega-cap tech. The discussion ultimately circles back to a familiar theme: markets may react sharply to headlines, but fundamentals, earnings power, and financial resilience continue to shape the bigger picture.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariffs and geopolitics are back in focus: Trade threats tied to Greenland and Europe are reviving volatility, even as markets wait for legal and policy clarity
• Bond yields are driving the response: Rising global yields are limiting diversification benefits and increasing pressure on policy credibility
• Metals are acting as a release valve: Strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects policy uncertainty and global demand
• Household balance sheets remain resilient: Lower leverage and elevated net worth are helping sustain spending and growth
• Market leadership continues to broaden: Small caps, mid caps, and cyclicals are reinforcing the underlying strength of the bull market

Jump to:

0:00 — Cold Open And Safety Scare

3:00 — Setting The Stage: Worst Market Day

5:30 — Greenland Tariffs And Policy Chess

11:30 — Supreme Court Tariff Wildcard

15:30 — Yields Spike And Safe Havens Pop

20:00 — Tech Under Pressure, Small Caps Hold

25:30 — Market Breadth And AI Expectations

31:00 — K-Shaped Economy And Delta’s Split Cabin

36:00 — Household Balance Sheets And Leverage

44:00 — Asset Drivers: Housing And Stocks

50:00 — Bear-Market Risk And Feedback Loops

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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After a strong start to the year and renewed highs across global markets, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step into the growing tension between Washington and the Federal Reserve, and what it could mean for markets, confidence, and policy credibility. They react to Jamie Dimon’s latest comments on economic resilience, unpack the unusual legal pressure facing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and explain why markets appear far more focused on earnings and growth than political noise.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets are prioritizing fundamentals: Earnings growth, productivity gains, and consumer resilience are outweighing the political headlines
• Fed independence is being tested: The legal and political pressure on the Fed raises long-term questions, but the markets remain focused on outcomes, not noise
• Metals are sending a signal: The strength in gold, silver, and industrial metals reflects both global demand and policy uncertainty
• Labor markets are cooling, not breaking: Hiring is slower, but the layoffs remain low and prime-age employment stays historically strong
• Breadth continues to improve: The leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap tech, reinforcing the durability of the current bull market

Jump to:

0:00 — Economic Resilience, Consumers, And Bank Signals

6:00 — Powell, Politics, And Central Bank Independence

12:15 — Gold, Metals, And Washington Crosscurrents

19:00 — Credit Cards, Housing Policy, And Affordability Risks

28:20 — Market Breadth, Diversification, And January Signals

31:10 — Labor Market Cooling, Youth Hiring, And Revisions

41:00 — Productivity, Margins, And Revenue Per Worker

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026.

They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures.

Key Takeaways:

• Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains
• Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise
• Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved
• AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends
• 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recession

Jump to:

0:00 — Setting The Stage For 2025

1:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom

4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth

9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced

14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts

22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations

27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers

32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions

40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare

46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And Policy

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close.

They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold’s role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026.

Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Jump to:

0:00 — Opening and guest introductions

1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts

6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth

12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts

18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals

26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup

34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlook

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Scott:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/

• X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=en

Connect with Chris:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/

• X: https://x.com/KimbleCharting

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026.

Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC.

Key Takeaways:

• Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized

• Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength

• Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew

• Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface

• Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strength

Jump to:

0:00 — Setting the Stage for 2025

5:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears

9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations

13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats

17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context

20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership

34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 Outlook

Connect with Art

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/

• X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIII

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.

Key Takeaways:

• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut

• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026

• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts

• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers

• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward

Jump to:

0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup

2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth

8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds

14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials

20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals

27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets

35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026

41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks

48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse

53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.

• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.

• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.

• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.

• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.

Jump to:

0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup

4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts

9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained

16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation

24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals

32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks

38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income Strength

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market.

Key Takeaways

• Market Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.
• Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.
• Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.
• Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.
• Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.
• AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #Reflation #InvestmentStrategy #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #YearEndRally

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives.

Key Takeaways

• Market Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.
• Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.
• Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).
• Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.
• Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.
• Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Jurrien Timmer:

• LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer

• X: @TimmerFidelity

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Disclosure: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #MarketInsights #InvestingPodcast #MacroOutlook #GlobalMarkets #AssetAllocation #CarsonGroup

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.

Key Takeaways

• Fed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.
• Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.
• Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.
• Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.
• Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Government Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.
• Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.
• Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.
• Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.
• Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.
• Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup

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In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.

Key Takeaways

• Historic Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.
• Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months.
• Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.
• Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.
• Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.
• Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond.

Key Takeaways

Joe Fahmy Segment:

• Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.
• Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.
• Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.
• Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.
• AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.

Warren Pies Segment:

• Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.
• Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.
• Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.
• Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.
• Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.

Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Joe Fahmy:

• X: @jfahmy

Connect with Warren Pies:

• LinkedIn: Warren Pies

• X: @WarrenPies

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

· Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end.

· Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years.

· Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally.

· Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm.

· The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets.

· Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence.

· Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech.

DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement

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Summary:
In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group. They dive into the “cockroaches in a bull market” conversation—what it means for credit markets, how private credit has evolved, and why due diligence and diversification are key in today’s environment. The trio also discusses gold’s surge, strong bank earnings, and why market signals still favor a solid finish to the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Credit Spreads – Markets remain steady with limited signs of broad stress.
• Private Credit Boom – The space has tripled since 2015, creating new risk dynamics.
• Diversification – Broad exposure cushions isolated defaults or fraud risks.
• Gold Momentum – Rising prices reflect sticky inflation and rate-cut expectations.
• Market Sentiment – A cooling VIX and broad participation support a strong Q4 outlook.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Kate Hall:

• LinkedIn: Kate Hall

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags:
#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #KateHall #PrivateCredit #Investing #Markets #BullMarket #Gold #MarketInsights #FinancialAdvisors #EconomicOutlook #Diversification

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Summary:
In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China—what they’re calling “Trade War 3.0.” They break down the latest round of tariffs, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and what this means for markets, global trade, and investors. The conversation also touches on October’s trademark market volatility, the three-year anniversary of the current bull market, and Carson Group’s exciting milestone of surpassing $50 billion in assets under management. To wrap up, Ryan and Sonu discuss how AI investments are shaping economic growth and why diversification remains key as the market rides this wave of innovation.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade War 3.0: The China trade war is back, with new tariffs and export restrictions creating fresh market uncertainty.
• Not a Shock: October remains the most volatile month for markets—current swings are historically typical.
• The Bull’s Birthday: The three-year bull market continues to show resilience and momentum heading into year four.
• Massive Impact: AI-related investment is a key driver of GDP growth, fueling spending, innovation, and market optimism.

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Investing #MarketOutlook #ChinaTradeWar #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #EconomicTrends #RareEarths #AIMarkets #NVIDIA #OpenAI #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights

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In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows.

Key Takeaways

• Gold Shines Bright: Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.
• Shutdown, Not Slowdown: Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.
• Rate Cuts Coming: Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.
• AI Spending Surge: OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.
• Market Momentum Builds: Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.

Connect with Ryan:
• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:
• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #FederalReserve #AI #GovernmentShutdown #Investing #StockMarket #WealthManagement #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights

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In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss gold, crypto, ETFs, and the future of investing. From the history of the first U.S. gold fund to today’s innovations in blockchain, stablecoins, and nuclear energy, Jan shares unique insights into how markets are evolving.

Key Takeaways

• Gold & Bitcoin: Gold remains a global safe haven, while Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold,” according to Jan.
• Stablecoins: Potentially revolutionary for payments, creating new competition between banks and tech companies.
• Macro Trends: The rise of India could reshape global markets, while China’s equity returns remain lackluster.
• Energy & AI: Nuclear energy is regaining bipartisan support as demand for power surges, particularly from AI growth.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Jan van Eck:

• LinkedIn: Jan van Eck

• X: @JanvanEck3

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Disclosure: Jan van Eck is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFs #Stablecoins #Investing #WealthManagement #MarketInsights

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the growing comparisons between today’s market and the 1929 crash. They cut through the noise on gold sentiment, small-cap strength, earnings growth, Fed policy, and consumer resilience—all in under 52 minutes.

Key Takeaways

• 1929 comparisons: Why we believe today’s bull market is not a replay of the Great Depression.
• Gold sentiment: The metal has been a strong diversifier for portfolios so far this year.
• Small caps: They’re breaking out after nearly four years without new highs.
• Earnings reporting: The hosts debate quarterly vs. semiannual disclosures after President Trump floated the idea last week.
• The Fed: What the recent rate cut mean, labor market concerns, and why equities rallied.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #BullMarket #Gold #SmallCaps #Fed #RetailSales #InvestingPodcast #MarketUpdate

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. From jobs data revisions and labor supply challenges to the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions, productivity, AI, and the outlook for portfolios, this episode is packed with insights advisors and investors can use right now.

Key Takeaways

• Jobs revisions: Recent downward adjustments highlight slowing payroll growth.
• Labor market: Supply shortages are keeping unemployment low despite weak hiring.
• Productivity: AI may boost output, but inequality risks remain.
• Fed policy: There’s a debate on whether cuts would stimulate the economy or actually drag it down.
• Tax refunds: 2025 policy changes could deliver a stimulus-like boost.
• Global opportunities: International equities could benefit from a weaker dollar.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dr. David Kelly:

• Website: Dr. David Kelly

• LinkedIn: Dr. David Kelly

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Disclosure: Dr. David Kelly is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #DavidKelly #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #InvestingPodcast #ExcelConference #Economy2025

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Strider Elass of First Trust and Samuel Rines of WisdomTree for a timely discussion on the labor market, inflation trends, tariffs, and what investors should watch heading into late 2025. The conversation covers job growth concentration in a few sectors, revisions in employment data, underlying inflation measures, and how tariffs may reshape growth, manufacturing, and markets.

Key Takeaways

• After the latest jobs report, unemployment sits at 4.3%, with weakness concentrated outside health, education, and government.
• Real-time shelter metrics suggest underlying inflation is lower than official reports.
• Effective tariff rates could rise further, pressuring companies and growth.
• Growth could see a potential reacceleration in late 2025, but risk remains of structural slowdown.
• Health care services have been driving job creation, while manufacturing faces losses.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Strider Elass:

• LinkedIn: Strider Elass

• X: @StriderElass

Connect with Samuel Rines:

• LinkedIn: Samuel Rines

• X: @SamuelRines

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Strider Elass and Samuel Rines are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #JobsReport #Inflation #Tariffs #Economy2025 #InvestingPodcast

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into a seasonally tricky September. They break down Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Fed’s balancing act between jobs and inflation, the steepening yield curve, and why gold and international markets are worth watching. Despite short-term volatility risks, they explain why the long-term bull market remains intact.

Key Takeaways:

• Jackson Hole Reaction: Powell leaned dovish, sparking a strong rally, but September cuts aren’t a lock.
• Fed Outlook: Markets are pricing in six rate cuts by late 2026 — potentially a big tailwind.
• Home Equity = Dry Powder: Falling rates could unleash a wave of consumer spending power.
• Steepening Yield Curves: A global signal pointing to growth and inflation expectations.
• Gold Breakout: With its price rising for eight months in a row, gold can be a long-term hedge against volatile inflation and a diversifier beyond bonds.
• Inflation Risks: Broader services inflation remains sticky, keeping pressure on the Fed.
• Seasonal Weakness: September has historically been the market’s toughest month, but optimism remains.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #Inflation #Gold #ETFs #EconomicUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome back legendary investor Cliff Asness, Co-Founding Partner, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer of AQR Capital Management. From market bubbles and speculative manias to AI-driven strategies and even Superman movies, this milestone 150th episode blends sharp market insight with candid (and fun) conversation.

Key Takeaways:

• Bubble Talk: Cliff explains why today’s markets are expensive but stop short of a true “bubble.”
• Black Swan Events: Why extreme market shocks happen far more often than statistics suggest.
• Rise of Grift: Social media and meme coins are fueling grift-like behavior in markets.
• AQR Evolution: How AQR has shifted toward data-driven models and capital efficiency.
• Portable Alpha: Insights on stacking returns and improving diversification.
• Buffer Products: Why complex downside-protection ETFs may just be expensive ways of holding cash and equities.
• Personal Stories: Cliff shares Marvel fan moments, career “what-ifs,” and parenting wisdom.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Cliff:

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness

• X: @CliffordAsness

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #CliffAsness #AQR #MarketBubbles #InvestingInsights #PortableAlpha #BlackSwan #FinancePodcast #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market moves, the outlook for rate cuts, and what the data is really telling us about inflation and growth. From cooling economic numbers to investor sentiment, this week’s conversation highlights why the market isn’t as fragile as headlines suggest — and what investors should really be watching for the rest of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

• Jobs slowdown: Payrolls are cooling, but we’re still not seeing signs of a recession.
• Inflation easing: Core numbers are moderating, opening the door for rate cuts from the Fed.
• Rate cuts in focus: The Fed is likely to take action soon, with markets pricing a cut in September.
• Markets resilient: Despite investor worries, the markets continue to reach new highs.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #Inflation #RateCuts #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with veteran market technician JC Parets, founder of TrendLabs, for a fast-moving discussion on technical analysis, market sentiment, gold, global equities, crypto, and the discipline of changing your mind when the charts say so. Packed with insights, laughs, and a few baseball stories, this episode cuts through the noise and focuses on what really matters for investors right now.

Key Takeaways

• Flows over fundamentals — Why positioning matters more than headlines.
• Global bull market — Confirmation from Europe, Asia, and Latin America
• Gold breakout — Record highs in every major currency
• Crypto rotation — Ethereum strength vs. Bitcoin and growing institutional access
• U.S. dollar — Rejection at key levels and implications for risk assets
• Risk management mindset — Moving quickly when trades don’t work
• Business lessons — Building teams, staying liquid, and taking it one day at a time

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with J.C.:

• Website: All Star Charts

• LinkedIn: J.C. Parets

• X: @JC_ParetsX

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

J.C. Parets is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Statements and opinions made by our guests are for general information only and may not be a reflection of CWM, LLC.

FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Crypto #MarketSentiment #GlobalMarkets #InvestingPodcast #TrendFollowing #FinancialAdvisors

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the latest surprising jobs data, significant payroll revisions, and President Trump's controversial firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica Groshen. Ryan and Sonu also provide insights into the Fed’s next moves, inflation challenges, and the unexpected factors influencing recent labor market trends.

Key Takeaways:

• Surprising Jobs Report: July's payroll came in at 73,000—lower than expected—with massive downward revisions for previous months.
• Payroll Data Accuracy: These significant revisions to recent month’s data are due to survey response rates, seasonal adjustments, and methodology nuances.
• Immigration and Labor: A drop in immigration has impacted the labor supply, with fewer jobs now needed monthly to match population growth.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Mixed economic signals have complicated rate cut decisions, leaving Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautious and focused on inflation risks.
• AI Spending Surge: AI-related investment has significantly boosted GDP growth, offsetting weaker consumer spending.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #JobsReport #FederalReserve #Inflation #JeromePowell #LaborMarket #PayrollRevisions #AIInvestment #EconomicTrends #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the recent easing of global trade tensions and how markets have responded positively. They dive into three popular market myths currently being debated, analyze corporate earnings, and provide their reasoning on why stocks continue to perform well despite skepticism.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade War Cooling: New trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and other nations signal a potential end to President Trump’s trade war, providing stability and optimism to the markets.

• Market Myths Debunked:

  • Weak Market Breadth: False. Equal-weight indexes and sector-wide gains show the market rally is broad-based.
  • Margin Debt Fears: Exaggerated. While margin debt reached record levels, relative to market cap it remains historically manageable.
  • Foreign Investment Fears: Unfounded. Foreign investment into U.S. stocks and bonds is strong, contrary to earlier warnings.
  • Corporate Earnings Strength: Companies like Johnson & Johnson and 3M show improved earnings forecasts despite tariff impacts, highlighting resilience in U.S. corporate profits.
  • Sentiment Check: Despite market highs, public sentiment remains cautious, which historically aligns with continued market strength.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #TradeWar #MarketMyths #Stocks #Investing #Tariffs #GlobalEconomy #FinancePodcast #StockMarketNews #EarningsSeason #EconomicOutlook

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In Episode 145 of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist unpack recent market reactions, Trump's potential impact on Jerome Powell's Fed tenure, and new inflation data that surprised most economists.

Key Takeaways

• Event Study on Powell's Potential Firing: Markets briefly reacted negatively to rumors of Jerome Powell’s firing, showcasing investor sensitivities.
• Surprising Inflation Data: Recent Producer Price Index (PPI) came in below all 50 Bloomberg economist forecasts.
• Debate Over Tariff Inflation: Discussion on whether tariffs represent one-time pricing adjustments or ongoing inflationary pressures.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InflationData #InterestRates #MarketReactions #EconomicInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist dive into the recent controversy surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, exploring potential political pressures, the Fed's massive headquarters renovation project, and the broader implications for monetary policy and the economy if there were to be a change in Fed leadership.

Key Takeaways

• Jerome Powell Under Pressure: Discussion about the Trump administration’s criticism of the Fed Chair.
• Fed HQ Controversy: Debate around whether the Fed’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation represents fiscal irresponsibility or necessary infrastructure investment.
• Political Tensions: Examination of how ongoing criticisms may impact Powell’s role and future Fed independence.
• Market Implications: Insight into how potential Fed leadership changes or political tensions could influence market behavior and economic policy.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #FedControversy #EconomicPolicy #TrumpAdministration #InterestRates #MarketInsights #FinancialPodcast #EconomicOutlook #MonetaryPolicy #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025. Reflecting on major surprises in the first half of the year, including unexpected tariff announcements and subsequent reversals, they analyze market performance in the first half of the year against historical trends. The discussion highlights market resilience, key economic indicators, historical market trends, and strategic insights into navigating the second half of 2025 effectively.

Key Takeaways

• Unexpected Tariff Volatility

  • The Liberation Day announcement by President Trump of extremely high tariffs surprised markets significantly. Equally surprising was how rapidly these tariffs were paused, causing abrupt swings in market sentiment.

  • Investor Sentiment Shifts

  • Many investors who were initially bearish following the tariff announcements underestimated the market's capacity to rebound strongly, emphasizing the importance of managing emotional biases and market timing.

  • Market Resilience and Momentum

  • Despite early setbacks, the markets showed resilience, demonstrating strong recovery patterns consistent with historical trends.

  • Bull Still Charging

  • The average bull market lasts about five years, but the current one we’re in hasn’t lasted even three yet—something to keep in mind next time the market experiences a setback.

  • Fed Stays on Pause

  • Market volatility kept the Fed on the sidelines in the first half of 2025, but we may see rate cuts by the fall if the markets stay on track.

  • A Big Beautiful Boost

  • Though the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill will likely add to the deficit in the coming years, it could also provide a boon to the markets in the back half of the year.

  • Strategic Insights for Second Half 2025

  • Historical market trends indicate a potentially strong performance for the latter half of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and diversification, and remain cautious of headline-driven market reactions.

Want access to Carson Investment Research Team’s full Midyear Market Outlook? Head to https://www.carsongroup.com/market-outlook to download the full report.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #MidyearOutlook2025 #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #InvestorSentiment #EconomicTrends #MarketForecast #HistoricalPatterns #InvestmentStrategy #StockMarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #MarketRecovery

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In this week’s episode of the Facts Vs Feelings podcast, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Barry Gilbert, VP Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, for an insightful conversation on effective portfolio management strategies. Barry shares valuable perspectives on the importance of teamwork, constructive debate, and making decisive investment decisions based on clear, actionable insights. Ryan and Sonu also discuss the historical strength of the July market, providing investors with context and strategic guidance for navigating the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways

• July Stock Market Trends and Analysis

  • July has historically been strong, with the S&P 500 rising 10 consecutive years in that month, and it’s notably the strongest month during post-election years.

  • Impact of Positive May and June Performance

  • Historically, positive returns in both May and June forecast strong market performance for the rest of the year—typically gaining around 9-10% in the final six months.

  • Effective Portfolio Management Insights

  • Barry Gilbert stresses the importance of constructive debate, critical thinking, and conviction-driven investment decisions in successful asset allocation strategies.

  • Carson Group’s Investment Philosophy

  • Barry highlights Carson’s culture of managing real money through rigorous debate and collaborative decision-making.

  • Investor Guidance and Market Volatility

  • Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective and managing emotional reactions during short-term market fluctuations.

Connect with Barry:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

• X: @gilbert3142

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #PortfolioManagement #InvestmentStrategies #JulyMarketRally #StockMarketTrends #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #MarketVolatility #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Key Takeaways

• Middle East Tensions and Market Response:
  • The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.
• Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context:
  • The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly.
• Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict:
  • Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).
• President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy:
  • President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.
• Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty:
  • The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell’s comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.
• Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing:
  • Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam’s background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI.

Key Takeaways

• What Sam Ro Actually Does All Day
  Sam is the founder and editor of TKer (pronounced ticker), a daily financial newsletter. He previously led markets coverage at Business Insider and was managing editor at Yahoo Finance. His role now is synthesizing market data and macro trends into clear, actionable insights for readers — many of whom are financial advisors.
• The Market Goes Up—Until It Doesn’t
  Sam chose the slogan “The stock market usually goes up” for his newsletter because, well, the market usually goes up. But, as Sam cautions, it’s important for investors to be prepared for downturns, or they can get badly dinged in the short term.
• Parsing the Data
  The group discusses a recent announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about collecting less data than before, and how budget cuts and staffing issues at the bureau could lead to less accurate data collection in economic surveys like CPI and employment reports.
• More Than Just Statistics
  Sam, who majored in religion in college, discusses the notion that data only goes so far in predicting the markets. Models can’t predict everything, and sometimes you just need to embrace uncertainty and have a bit of faith that the markets will sort themselves out over time.
• AI Can’t Replace Human JudgmentWhile AI chatbots now summarize reports faster—and sometimes more eloquently—than humans, Sam stresses that interpreting nuance and making editorial decisions remain human domains.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Sam:

· https://www.tker.co/

· X: @SamRo

· LinkedIn: sammyro

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #SamRo #TickerNewsletter #MarketFlows #StockMarket #InvestorDiscipline #FinancialMedia #Macroeconomics #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

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In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.

But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.

Key Takeaways

• Theater Meets Market Implications
  The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.
• Markets Rally Despite the Drama
  Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.
• Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary
  While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn’t scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.
• Fed Remains Cautious
  While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.
• Watch Market Breadth and Participation
  Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market’s surface.

Key Takeaways

• Markets Continue to Surprise on the Upside
  After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.
• Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that’s bolstered many investors.
• Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas
  Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.
• No Sign of a Recession
  With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.
• Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case
  Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven’t caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.

Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.

Key Takeaways

• Tesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.
• AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.
• China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.
• Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.
• Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.
• Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.
• Palantir’s Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.
• AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.
• Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.
• Bitcoin’s Role in Tech: Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dan:

• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives

• X: @DivesTech

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.

Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.

Key Takeaways:

• PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation:
  CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.
• Macro Noise & Recession Probability:
  Macroeconomic forecasting in today’s environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.
• Economic Resilience Remains Strong:
  Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.
• Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth:
  Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.
• AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable:
  Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.
• Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump
  Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven’t followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Skanda:

• X: @IrvingSwisher

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

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In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors.

After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally be prevailing. From trade negotiations to market breadth thrust indicators, and even a glimpse into the Fed’s next move—the guys cover it all.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariff Ceasefire with China:
  A surprise agreement between the U.S. and China rolls back reciprocal tariffs to 10%, averting the feared trade war escalation—though another 20% tariff still remains. The market reacted with a strong rally, showing signs of confidence.
• Trade Talks Reset, Not a Resolution:
  Though framed as a deal by the U.S., China calls it an “economic and trade consultation mechanism.” The agreement includes a 90-day pause and commitments to future negotiations. Non-tariff measures like export restrictions are also being lifted.
• Market Reaction Shows Strength:
  The Dow surged more than 1,000 points, and market internals and technicals suggest bullish momentum and historical patterns point to strong returns ahead.
• Bull Market Signals Everywhere:
  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have officially entered new bull markets. Patterns like strong monthly returns and recoveries from steep drawdowns historically signal higher markets in the months to come.
• Fed Rate Cuts Delayed by Tariff Uncertainty:
  Despite soft April CPI data and signs that inflation is under control, the Fed remains cautious. Rate cuts that once seemed likely in June or July may now be pushed to September or later.
• U.S. Recession Risk Declining Again:
  After a temporary spike in recession probability post-Liberation Day, analysts are walking those forecasts back as data stabilizes and trade tensions ease.
• Long-Term Strategy Over Headlines:
  Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of staying invested through volatility. Market history shows the best days often come right after the worst—don’t miss them by panic selling.

Connect with Ryan:

· LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

· X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

· LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

· X: Sonu Varghese

FactsVsFeelings #MarketUpdate #TradeWar #Tariffs #ChinaUSRelations #StockMarket #BullMarket #Recession #Inflation #FederalReserve #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentStrategy #Economy #SP500 #MarketInsights #SonuVarghese #RyanDetrick

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed’s next move, and more.

Key Takeaways:

• GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.
• A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett’s remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he’d be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.
• Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.
• Fed Uncertainty: Though it’s still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.
• Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.
• Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market’s strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.

The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold’s recent surge and what it might mean for investors.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets vs. Tariffs
• Policy Sensitivity
• Market Breadth & Technicals
• Near Bear Markets
• Trade Impact Lag
• Fed & Policy Outlook
• Earnings Expectations
• Sentiment Extremes
• Gold Surge

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market’s reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.

Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI’s role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI’s dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started.

Key Takeaways:

• Market headwinds are turning into tailwinds
• Risk of a recession is on the rise
• Tariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulation
• AI will catalyze every sector
• Bitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there’s still uncertainty
• Manufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automation
• The government’s role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progresses

Connect with Cathie:

• X: @cathiedwood

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghe

Relevant Hashtags:

CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the ripple effects of tariffs, high interest rates, and a wavering investment environment on the U.S. and global economies.

With companies freezing investment plans and government spending cooling off, the duo explores how the consumer remains the last line of economic defense—so long as the labor market holds. They also explore why the Fed might be making a mistake by keeping rates elevated, the possibility of a white-flag moment from President Trump, and how diversification remains the smartest play during times of uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs Are Already Reshaping Corporate Behavior
• GDP Growth is Vulnerable
• Labor Market is the Tipping Point
• Fed Policy May Be Too Tight for Too Long
• The Market’s Bull Case? Trump Waves the White Flag

Next Week's Guest: Cathie Wood
Our next episode will feature Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, as we’ll dive into tech and recession perspectives.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Music Credit:

• Ryan the Savior of Stocks – by Jake Guttman (This song was created using A.I.) https://suno.com/song/c11f8ece-b4b8-45f0-b6e6-ae0e761708b7

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

FactsVsFeelings #Markets #Tariffs #FedPolicy #GDP #LaborMarket #Investing #Diversification #InterestRates #TrumpEconomy #CathieWood #EconomicOutlook #ConsumerSpending

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In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the immediate fallout of last week’s tariffs announcement and how it could impact both the U.S. and the global economy. They dive into the plunging markets, how a trade war could trigger a recession, the long-term impact of tariffs, and much more.

Key Takeaways

• Market Impact: The immediate aftermath in the markets after tariffs went into effect wasn’t pretty, with the Dow dropping more than 10% in two days. When could we expect some relief?
• Inflation Returns: Tariffs are likely to raise prices for most goods, and rising inflation could affect when and whether the Fed makes rate cuts this year.
• Recession Odds: With the markets in bear market territory, what’s the likelihood of these tariffs triggering a recession?
• Delayed Impact: Manufacturing and labor market numbers in upcoming months may not fully reflect the impact of tariffs.
• Time to Diversify: Volatility in the stock market just further emphasizes the need for investors to have a diverse portfolio.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Tariffs #LiverationDay #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket #Recession

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In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Jess Menton, Senior Reporter at Bloomberg News, and Kate Hall, VP, Alternative Due Diligence, at Carson Group. The conversation explores career growth, industry challenges, and what the future holds for female leaders in financial services.

Key Takeaways:

• The importance of representation: Women in leadership serve as role models, paving the way for future generations.
• Overcoming industry challenges: Jess and Kate share personal experiences navigating male-dominated spaces in finance.
• The power of mentorship: The guests discuss how building strong networks and mentorship opportunities are key to helping advance women in the industry.
• Market insights: The panel discusses economic trends, investing strategies, and the current state of the markets.
• Advice for the next generation: The group talks about how to encourage young women considering careers in finance and how the industry can better support them.

This is more than just a market discussion—it’s about leadership, resilience, and the future of finance.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Jess Menton:

• LinkedIn: Jessica Menton
• X: @JessicaMenton

Connect with Kate Hall:

• LinkedIn: Kate K. Hall

Hashtags

FactsVsFeelings #MarketTrends #Economy #FedPolicy #StockMarket #Turkey #InterestRates #Inflation #Investing #LaborMarket

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In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist at Clearonomics, and Debbie Taylor, Managing Partner and Chief Tax Strategist at Carson Wealth, for a special Women’s History Month Livestream. Together, they discuss their careers, recent market trends, and how investors can navigate today's economic landscape.

Key Takeaways:

Market Insights & Volatility – Are recent corrections normal? We take a look at the stock market’s history following recent corrections.
The Role of Women in Finance – Lindsey and Debbie share their career journeys, the challenges they faced along the way, and lessons from their time in the financial industry.
Tax Strategies & Planning – Debbie discusses tax efficiency, investment strategies, and financial planning for long-term success.
Economic Trends & Consumer Behavior – What do earnings growth, job markets, and tariffs mean for investors?

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Lindsey:

• LinkedIn: Lindsey Bell
• X: @justLBell

Connect with Debbie:

• LinkedIn: Debbie Taylor

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the recent market correction, what history tells us about recoveries, and whether investors should be concerned. Plus, they discuss sentiment shifts, the strength of international markets, and what they see next for stocks.

Key Takeaways:

• Understanding Market Corrections: The S&P 500 fell 10% in just 16 trading days — historically, corrections like this happen about once a year.
• What Happens Next? History suggests strong rebounds after quick corrections, with the S&P 500 gaining an average of 7.5% in three months and 15% in six months following similar drops.
• It’s Not All Bad: While the S&P 500 dipped, international markets like Germany, Japan, and Europe have remained resilient, showing the importance of diversification.
• Investor Sentiment is Shifting: Bearish sentiment is at its highest level since March 2009, often a contrarian buy signal.
• The Fed and Inflation Concerns: Inflation expectations have risen, but real inflation remains under control. The Fed’s next moves will be crucial.
• Diversification Wins: Bonds, gold, and low-volatility stocks have held up well, reinforcing the need for a balanced portfolio.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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In this week’s episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist are joined by Warren Pies, Co-Founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss market trends, recession risks, Fed policy, and, of course, some fun Pi Day and St. Patrick’s Day talk. They dive into economic growth concerns, interest rates, inflation, and why a growth scare doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is coming.

Key Takeaways:

• Is a Growth Scare Just That? Market sentiment has shifted, but there’s no clear recession signal yet. Key indicators like residential construction payrolls remain strong.
• The Fed’s Search for Neutral: Interest rates are still restrictive, but the Fed may need to cut more than expected this year to support economic growth.
• Government Spending & Deficits: Large fiscal deficits have been a cushion for the economy, but potential cuts could introduce new risks.
• Energy Market Insights: Oil prices are trending lower, which is good for inflation and Fed policy, but may present challenges for energy companies.
• Market Volatility & Rate Cuts: The Fed’s reluctance to ease policy is contributing to a growth scare, but this may just be a temporary market correction.
• Housing & Economic Signals: While mortgage rates remain high, housing market fundamentals aren’t signaling an imminent downturn.
• Pi Day & St. Patrick’s Day Fun: We discuss Chicago’s green river tradition, our favorite pies, and how Warren’s firm got its name.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Join us for a special Women’s History Month edition of Facts vs Feelings, featuring top women leaders in finance discussing markets, investing, and industry insights. Register now: https://www.linkedin.com/events/7303883891440762880

Connect with Warren:

• LinkedIn: Warren Pies
• X: @WarrenPies
• Website: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: @sonusvarghes

StockMarket #Investing #InterestRates #FederalReserve #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #EnergyMarkets #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup #PiDay #StPatricksDay

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In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the latest market volatility, tariff concerns, and whether the economy is truly slowing down or if fears are overblown. Despite uncertainty, they analyze the data behind the "growth scare" and discuss whether the bull market still has room to run.

Key Takeaways:

• Market Volatility & Growth Concerns: Stocks have pulled back due to new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, but history shows that early-year volatility in a post-election cycle is normal.
• Tariffs & Economic Impact: Tariffs are sparking concerns, but the lack of a dollar surge suggests it may not spiral into a full trade war.
• Stock Market Resilience: While tech has struggled, financials, real estate, and consumer staples have shown strong performance, proving the market can broaden out beyond large-cap tech.
• Fed & Interest Rates: Despite inflation fears, rate cuts remain on the table for later this year, potentially providing a tailwind for stocks.
• Seasonal Trends & Historical Context: The first quarter of post-election years tends to be choppy, but historical data suggests a stronger market performance in the coming months.
• Consumer Spending & Economic Data: A sharp drop in GDP expectations is mostly driven by a trade imbalance and tariff front-loading, rather than an actual economic collapse.

What’s your take on the markets? Drop a comment below and let us know! Don't forget to like, subscribe, and share for weekly market insights!

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

StockMarket #Investing #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #BullMarket #FederalReserve #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

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Summary:

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the latest market trends, inflation data, and what’s driving stocks to all-time highs despite ongoing concerns about tariffs, interest rates, and other economic uncertainty.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets at All-Time Highs: Despite concerns about tariffs, inflation, and the Fed, stocks are still hitting record levels, driven by strong earnings and expanding profit margins.
• Rate Cuts Still on the Table: Recent inflation data supports the case for potential Fed rate cuts in 2025, but timing remains uncertain.
• Earnings Strength: S&P 500 earnings are up nearly 17% YoY, with eight of 11 sectors improving profit margins—an encouraging sign for investors.
• Tariffs Delayed: Proposed trade tariffs have been delayed, possibly until August, easing immediate market fears.
• Market Breadth Expanding: More sectors are driving growth beyond just large-cap tech, making the rally more sustainable.
• Inflation Trends: CPI came in hot, but PPI showed signs of easing price pressures, hinting at continued disinflation.
• Momentum Matters: Historically, strong market performance in January and February—like we’ve seen to start 2025—leads to continued gains for the rest of the year.
• Consumer Resilience: While retail sales dipped unexpectedly, seasonal factors and extreme weather likely played a role, rather than fundamental economic weakness.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

StockMarket #Investing #AllTimeHighs #Inflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #InterestRates #Earnings #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #CarsonGroup

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Summary:

In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the rising cost of eggs and other factors contributing to inflation stickiness. They also discuss the stock market flirting with an all-time high, when to expect cuts from the Fed, and much more!

Key Takeaways:

• The S&P 500 is near an all-time high despite economic concerns.
• Inflation remains a hot topic, with rising egg prices making headlines.
• Momentum is driving market performance, with all 11 S&P sectors in positive territory.
• Housing, auto insurance, and used cars are the primary contributors to inflation stickiness.
• The Fed remains in a cutting bias, but rate cuts may not happen until midyear.
• Trade and tariff policies have the potential for long-term market impacts.
• The possibility of a government shutdown is looming, adding another layer of uncertainty.
• Retail sales took a surprising hit, but that may be due to recent extreme weather and seasonality.

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:

StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #Eggflation #FederalReserve #Tariffs #PersonalFinance #CarsonGroup

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Summary:
In this episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the biggest economic and market concerns beyond tariffs. They dive into historical market indicators, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, employment trends, and whether the third year of a bull market signals trouble. The duo also touches on global markets, the effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, and the latest employment data revisions.

Key Takeaways:

· Tariff Uncertainty: New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to retaliatory measures from Europe and other trade partners.

· Market Indicators: The December low indicator flashed a warning, though broader market trends remain resilient.

· Federal Reserve & Interest Rates: The Fed is taking a cautious approach, possibly delaying rate cuts until later in the year or even 2026.

· Employment Trends: Payroll revisions lowered job growth estimates, but productivity gains remain a silver lining.

· Market Breadth & Leadership Shift: Large-cap tech stocks show signs of lagging, while broader market participation remains mixed.

· Historical Trends: Year three of a bull market tends to be weaker, averaging only a 2% gain.

· Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan:

· LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

· X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

· LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

· X: Sonu Varghese

Relevant Hashtags:
#StockMarket #Investing #Economy #Tariffs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Finance #MarketTrends #WealthManagement #Trading #EconomicOutlook

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In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the latest tariff drama, analyzing its potential impact on the economy, markets, and inflation. They explore past trade wars, the Fed’s stance on inflation uncertainty, and how fiscal policy—especially potential tax cuts—could shape 2025. Plus, they discuss the January market rally, historical trends for February, and why volatility is a necessary part of investing.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Tariffs create uncertainty, but history shows markets adapt.
• The Fed’s rate cut timeline may be delayed due to inflation concerns.
• Fiscal policy could offset the impact of tariffs, especially with potential tax cuts.
• Despite uncertainty, broadening market trends and strong corporate earnings remain positive.
• February has historically been weak post-election, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.

Resources:

● Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

● LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

● X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

● LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

● X: Sonu Varghese

Publishing Tags: #FinancialMarkets #Investing #StockMarket #Economy #Tariffs #TradeWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketTrends #InvestmentStrategy #GlobalEconomy #StockMarketAnalysis #EconomicPolicy #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #InvestorEducation #MarketVolatility #Trading #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast

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Artificial Intelligence is reshaping industries and global competition, and understanding its market impact is critical.

How do advancements like DeepSeek's AI change the game? What does it mean for the global economy, technology stocks, and U.S.-China relations?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the transformative impact of AI, the economic trends shaping 2024, and the importance of diversification in portfolios. They also discuss the implications of AI for productivity, technology sector competition, and global markets.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The emergence of DeepSeek, a cost-effective and open-source AI competitor, and its implications for the AI market
• U.S. and Chinese competition in technology innovation and the broader economic significance of AI advancements
• The impact of AI cost reductions on accessibility, productivity, and business adoption across sectors
• Recent market trends, including the role of technology stocks, mid-cap performances, and financial sector growth
• The broader economic outlook, emphasizing the benefits of AI-driven cost efficiencies for the economy and the importance of maintaining diversified investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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The investing world is buzzing as markets rally, inflation softens, and a familiar political figure makes headlines.

How do these factors shape the current economic picture? What are the implications for portfolios and policies in the months ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the surprising strength of markets, the potential impact of tariffs and a stronger dollar, and the outlook for inflation in 2025. They highlight key data and trends that show resilience and opportunities in the economy despite widespread skepticism.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent broad market strength, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, and the implications of improved market breadth
• Why inflation metrics, especially core CPI, show improvement and the role of lagging indicators like shelter costs and motor vehicle insurance
• The influence of tariffs and a strengthening dollar on U.S. manufacturers, earnings, and inflation expectations
• Resilience in the labor market, including trends in part-time workers and construction jobs, suggesting economic stabilization
• Policy uncertainties, including President Trump’s potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico and their possible effects on global trade and markets
• And more!

Resources:

• Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.
• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• ROMA Collectibles

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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How do market strategies evolve amidst economic shifts, policy adjustments, and investor behavior?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2025 outlook. They delve into economic growth, earnings, policy impacts, and the potential paths for stocks and bonds.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Predictions for stocks growing 12-15% and bonds by 4-7%, with a focus on equities
• Observations on U.S. economic resilience driven by consumer balance sheets and productivity
• Potential risks from interest rates, housing market stagnation, and a strong dollar’s effects on exports and earnings
• Anticipated Fed rate cuts and inflation trends tied to real estate and wage growth
• Strategies emphasizing diversified investments, including opportunities in underperforming mid-cap and small-cap sectors
• And more!

Download the full Market Outlook 2025 here.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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How do market strategists assess their predictions and refine their strategies for the future?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on 2024's market outcomes. They explore what they anticipated correctly, where they misjudged, and how these insights shape their 2025 outlook.

They also highlight the key drivers behind market performance, emphasizing transparency and adaptability in strategy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The impact of a Santa Claus rally that failed to materialize and its implications for short-term market sentiment
• The contributions of earnings growth, dividends, and multiple expansion to the S&P 500's 25% total return in 2024
• Their successful forecast of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their influence on economic stability
• The underperformance of small and mid-cap stocks despite positive expectations and the need to adapt to market shifts
• The strong performance of U.S. equities over international stocks, driven by relative economic strength and a resilient dollar
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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How can advisors truly thrive in their personal and professional lives? Dr. Phil Pearlman brings a refreshing perspective, blending psychology, health, and financial strategy to empower advisors to achieve peak performance.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. Phil Pearlman, Founder of the Pearl Institute, to explore actionable strategies for enhancing well-being, overcoming modern challenges, and optimizing decision-making.

Dr. Pearlman shares insights on building healthier habits, combating distractions, and fostering meaningful connections in an ever-demanding profession.

Dr. Pearlman discusses:

• How to tackle phone addiction and reclaim time for personal growth and relationships
• Simple steps advisors can take to improve health and performance, including dietary and physical activity tips
• Strategies for setting and maintaining achievable goals for long-term success
• The importance of focusing on individual progress over external comparisons to combat FOMO and enhance satisfaction
• Insights on leveraging psychological flexibility to quit bad habits and make more effective decisions
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Dr. Phil Pearlman:

• Email: ppearlman@gmail.com
• LinkedIn: Philip Pearlman
• X: @ppearlman
• Website: Dr. Phil Pearlman
• Website: Pearl Institute

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Phil launched Pearl Institute to help people live healthier, perform better, and make wise decisions. Previously, he spent years serving as an executive in both finance and media. Phil lives with his wife and two boys in Montebello, New York.

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The market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty, but key insights from this latest discussion will shed light on what's driving sentiment and expectations.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent Fed meeting, market reactions, and what’s coming for 2025.

They explore the context of inflation fears, shifts in economic projections, and the broader implications of monetary policy, offering perspectives on why a recession might not be imminent despite challenges.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift and its impact on market sentiment, including fears of prolonged rate cuts and inflation risks
• Historical market trends, including the significance of the Santa Claus rally and potential warning signs for the coming year
• How inflation metrics like shelter and financial services charges influence overall inflation perceptions and the Fed’s response
• Strong economic indicators such as income growth outpacing inflation and their role in sustaining consumer spending and economic resilience
• The political and economic uncertainties shaping 2025, including rate cuts, tax policies, and market growth potential
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Inflation concerns are widespread, but are they justified?

Economic trends suggest that the narrative of persistently high inflation may be overblown.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the nuances of current inflation data and its implications for investors and the broader economy.

They discuss why inflation is less of a concern than widely believed, explore consumer strength, and offer insights into the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.

Ryan and Sonu talk about:

• The recent market trends, including stock movements, Santa Claus rallies, and why market sentiment remains resilient despite fluctuations
• The misconceptions surrounding "sticky" inflation, emphasizing the lagging impact of shelter and auto insurance data
• The Federal Reserve's policy decisions, including upcoming rate cuts and their implications for the market
• The resilience of the U.S. consumer, supported by strong balance sheets, rising disposable income, and robust retail sales growth
• China's economic shifts, including its dominance in automobile manufacturing and its global impact on manufacturing trends and oil demand
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism.

What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the shift in sentiment, and the prospects for the coming year. They explore trends in employment, the economy, and the impact of monetary policy changes on investors' strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The market's transition from bearish to bullish sentiment after consecutive strong years of returns, emphasizing shifting sentiment among prominent analysts
• The labor market's mixed signals, including steady job creation, rising unemployment rates, and slowing hiring trends
• Potential implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the broader economic impact, including risks of prolonged pauses in cuts
• The resurgence of small-cap stocks and their potential to outperform amid favorable economic growth expectations
• Global economic risks, including political instability in key regions and their potential impact on the U.S. dollar and broader markets.
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Are today’s markets walking a tightrope?

Balancing optimism with caution, Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, is joined by Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, to tackle three key market concerns in this thought-provoking episode of Facts vs. Feelings.

They examine the complexities of policy risks, tariffs, and valuations, offering insights to help investors navigate today’s market uncertainties.

This conversation delivers actionable strategies to help you manage uncertainty, stay diversified, and make sense of today’s market challenges. Whether navigating fiscal and monetary policy decisions, understanding global trends, or debating valuations, this conversation has something for every investor.

Key Highlights:

• Policy Risks: Federal Reserve rate decisions remain a wildcard, potentially impacting housing, business investments, and broader economic growth
• Trade and Tariffs: Tariff rhetoric and policy shifts could nudge inflation and alter market sentiment—but are they long-term threats or one-time adjustments
• Stock Valuations: U.S. markets continue trading at high valuations (e.g., 22x forward PE), raising questions about sustainability and investor sentiment
• Global Perspectives: Growth stories in India and Japan contrast with U.S. workforce trends, offering a broader view of opportunities and challenges
• Why It Matters: Understanding these risks could help investors stay grounded and focused on long-term goals despite short-term noise
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Reasons to Be Thankful (Ep. 111)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA
• Carson Wealth

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Surprising economic growth, falling inflation, and financial wins—what’s not to be thankful for?

On this gratitude-filled episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on the moments, milestones, and market trends that make this year one to celebrate. Guest Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, joins to spotlight the U.S. economy’s surprising resilience.

This release explores the drivers of today’s strong markets and their year-end outlook, from economic growth and moderating inflation to personal triumphs and professional gratitude. The hosts also share practical strategies for staying diversified and grounded in fundamentals while embracing gratitude as a mindset for success.

Key Highlights:

• Economic Resilience: GDP growth outpaces expectations at 2.8–2.9%, driven by productivity gains and entrepreneurship
• Inflation Trends: Thanksgiving dinner costs drop 5% year-over-year, reflecting gradual inflation moderation
• Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 gains ~20% for the second year, with financials leading sector growth
• Year-End Momentum: December’s historical strength and profit margins show continued market optimism
• Investment Insights: Diversify portfolios and focus on earnings fundamentals to prepare for long-term growth
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA
• Carson Wealth

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With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy and markets.

Ryan and Sonu examine how these trends reshape investment opportunities, from skyrocketing mortgage rates—eroding housing affordability—to sector rotations in the S&P 500. They reveal why inflation might be cooling faster than official data suggests, the surprising resilience of consumer strength, and whether the Fed’s cautious “wait-and-see” approach hints at a future policy shift.

Tune in as the duo also explores market dynamics, uncovers the lessons of the 1995 Greenspan era, and discusses how high productivity could provide a unique opportunity for rate cuts without economic stagnation!

Key Highlights:

• Interest Rate Dynamics: Higher mortgage rates (7–8%) squeeze affordability, but construction jobs remain surprisingly steady
• Sector Performance: Financials, energy, and industrials shine as tech and healthcare face setbacks
• Inflation Trends: Real-time data suggests cooling inflation and calming food and grocery prices
• Fed’s Position: Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” strategy faces criticism for focusing on outdated inflation metrics
• Geopolitical Risks: A strong dollar and global conflicts pressure markets, making diversification essential
• Productivity Gains: High productivity offers hope for wage growth without spiking inflation
• Investment Outlook: Stay diversified and monitor high-growth tech and renewable energy opportunities
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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As the post-election market rally gains momentum, how can investors position themselves for what’s next?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the economic implications of recent election results and a renewed Trump administration.

From anticipated Republican policy shifts—like potential tax cuts, deregulation, and deficit spending—to a bullish outlook for small-cap stocks, Ryan and Sonu examine how these strategies may shape market sentiment in the months ahead. They discuss the impact of a strong dollar on international equities, why gold’s recent dip could offer buying opportunities, and whether bond yields might stabilize following recent increases.

So, tune in as they explore market patterns, highlighting how post-election years often deliver solid performance and explore how non-traditional media, like podcasts, are increasingly shaping election sentiment.

Key Highlights:

• Market Rally: Optimism from GOP policies drives small-cap growth post-election
• Tax and Fiscal Policy: Upcoming tax cuts and spending could spark growth while balancing inflation
• Investment Outlook: Bullish on small caps; bond yields may stabilize
• Gold & Dollar Dynamics: Strong dollar pressures international stocks; gold may be a buying opportunity
• Election Trends: Historically, markets gain momentum after election years
• Shifting Media: Podcasts and new media reshape election sentiment
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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As economic data shows resilience and market expectations shift, how can investors navigate these mixed signals?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, and Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director at Employ America, join hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to assess the economy's current strength and potential headwinds.

From surprising 3% GDP growth and possible consumer spending slowdowns to pressures in the housing market driven by high mortgage rates, they discuss why current market optimism might be short-lived. Neil and Skanda also explore how inflation trends, influenced by wage growth and energy prices, could shape future economic stability.

So, tune in as they further explore geopolitical risks, such as fiscal policy changes, and their implications for investors as the 2024 election approaches—offering strategies to stay informed and balanced in uncertain times!

Key Highlights:

• Economic Growth Outlook: The strong 3% GDP growth might not last, with possible Q4 slowdowns stemming from decreased consumer and equipment spending
• Consumer Spending Concerns: Challenges from stagnant real income growth and high mortgage rates could weigh on spending
• Federal Reserve Strategy: A cautious approach to rate cuts, guided by labor cost data, points to measured future actions
• Inflation and Prices: While lower energy costs help curb inflation, core issues persist amidst moderated wage growth
• Market Enthusiasm: Is optimism justified, or are markets overlooking key risks?
• Labor Market Shifts: Slowing job growth may impact consumer-driven economic momentum
• Political Uncertainty: Upcoming fiscal and policy changes may inject volatility into market forecasts and investment strategies
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Neil Dutta:

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Skanda Amarnath:

• Twitter: Skanda Amarnath
• Employ America

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As election season heats up, how can investors keep their portfolios steady amid political swings?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy, PIMCO, joins hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to unpack the 2024 election's potential market impact. From rising deficits and tax reform to tariffs and a divided Congress, they explore why reacting emotionally to political shifts could undermine investment decisions.

They also examine how new media like podcasts is reshaping voter engagement—and share strategies for staying calm and focused in high-stakes times.

Key Highlights:

• Election Impact on Markets: Why sticking to portfolio fundamentals is critical amid election uncertainty
• Key Election Themes: Likely shifts in deficits, tax reform, and tariffs, regardless of who wins
• Polling and Predictions: A look at tight races and the caution needed with prediction markets
• Media Shift: How new media is reshaping how voters engage in elections
• Congressional Balance: Market risks and opportunities if Congress remains divided
• Personal Reflections: Libby’s insights on stress management during an election year
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Libby Cantrill:

• LinkedIn: Libby Cantrill, CFA
• PIMCO

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What’s the secret to success in both finance and media?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, joins Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, to share his journey from retail stockbroker to RIA founder. He talks about how networking and taking risks helped shape his career and why authenticity is key to staying relevant.

Josh also explores balancing work with personal life and why he left social media (Twitter/X) for more direct connections through newsletters and YouTube. Plus, he gives a behind-the-scenes look at his media experiences on CNBC’s Halftime Report and as an advisor for Billions.

Finally, Josh offers his take on how the pandemic revealed cracks in the financial system, leading to inflation and labor shortages.

Tune in for insights on career growth, content creation, and what’s next for the economy!

Key Highlights:

• Career Evolution: Networking and risk-taking lessons from Josh’s rise from retail stockbroker to top-tier RIA founder
• Work-Life Balance: Practical advice on blending passion for work with family commitments
• Content Creation: How to build a strong, authentic connection with your audience without relying on big-name guests
• Financial Industry Insights: Balancing commentary with professional relationships in finance
• Media Experience: Lessons from Josh’s time on live TV and his contributions to Billions
• Post-Pandemic Economy: Josh’s perspective on how the pandemic reshaped the economy and exposed system vulnerabilities
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you!factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Joshua Brown:

• LinkedIn: Joshua Brown
• Ritholtz Wealth Management

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As the election approaches, investors are bracing for potential surprises—will history repeat itself, or are we in for something new?

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into key forces at play—rising inflation, surging small- and mid-cap stocks, and why investors are staying calm despite higher CPI and PPI numbers. As Q4 unfolds, they consider whether seasonal trends might cool inflation and how hurricanes could influence the Fed's next steps.

They also discuss how the election could sway the markets, why a split Congress might benefit investors, and which trends like defense spending and a strong dollar are likely to stick. Plus, they unpack the spike in the volatility index (VIX) and what it could mean for a post-election market shift.

Join us to gain insights and prepare for the market's next moves!

Key Highlights:

• Inflation Trends: Insights into the recent CPI and PPI data, including signs of easing in shelter costs and projections for Q4
• Market Dynamics: How small- and mid-cap stock strength contributes to broader market gains, supported by strong earnings from major banks
• Election Impact: Tight polling and the prospects of a split Congress could create a favorable market environment, with defense spending and dollar strength likely to continue
• Volatility and VIX: What the elevated volatility index suggests about investor sentiment ahead of the election
• Labor Market Considerations: Potential impacts of hurricanes on employment data and what this could mean for the Fed's policy direction
• Q4 Market Outlook: Expectations for strong equity performance, driven by seasonal trends and market momentum
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Is the bull market’s two-year run a sign of stability or the start of a shake-up?

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into what’s driving market strength and what’s ahead. With GDP growth, profit gains, and 254,000 new jobs added, they break down what these trends mean for investors navigating today’s landscape.

They also explore the economic fallout from recent hurricanes in Florida and share how you can help recovery efforts. Inflation and CPI data are key—hear how these might shape Fed decisions and your market strategy.

Curious about election impacts? This market may keep defying pessimistic predictions, setting up a deeper dive in the next episode.

Key Highlights:

• Bull Market Resilience: Insights into the economic factors driving the two-year bull run and its future outlook
• Employment Data & Economic Strength: A breakdown of recent job growth and wage gains that support market stability
• Inflation & Federal Reserve Policies: Analysis of inflation’s impact on Fed rate cuts and why CPI data matters
• Historical Market Trends: Examination of past market behaviors and their implications for the current bull run
• Hurricane Impact: Discussion of economic fallout and ways to support hurricane-affected communities
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Are your financial decisions shaped by emotions or grounded in logic?

The difference could have a bigger impact on your financial future than you think.

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, host an insightful conversation recorded live at the Excel Conference, featuring leading financial minds:

Ed Clissold, CFA, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research; Brian Portnoy, CFA, Founder of Shaping Wealth; and Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®, CEO & Founder of Asset-Map Holdings.

Together, they examine the behavioral and emotional forces that drive both individual investment decisions and broader market trends. From managing emotional reactions in volatile markets to harnessing the power of storytelling in financial advice, they reveal how financial advisors can elevate their approach.

The discussion also explores the complexities of guiding families through financial planning, the critical importance of financial literacy for future generations, and a cautiously optimistic look at today’s economic indicators.

Key Highlights:

• Behavioral Finance & Emotional Intelligence: Brian Portnoy highlights the central role of emotions in decision-making. He urges advisors to act as behavioral coaches, helping clients manage their emotional responses to market fluctuations and stay focused on long-term goals.
• Market Sentiment & Political Reactions: Ed Clissold explains how market tops and bottoms are often driven by emotional extremes like optimism and pessimism. He also touches on how elections can create short-term volatility, but markets typically react independently of political outcomes. Ed reminds advisors to rely on data-driven insights rather than emotional biases when advising clients.
• Holistic Financial Planning & Storytelling: Adam Holt and Brian Portnoy emphasize the importance of taking a comprehensive approach to financial planning, addressing risks like under-insurance and longevity. Brian adds that storytelling is a powerful tool for advisors, helping clients connect with their financial goals on a deeper level.
• Market Outlook & Economic Indicators: Ed provides a cautiously optimistic market outlook, highlighting strong consumer spending and investment. While sentiment indicators, like the yield curve, suggest some potential slowdowns, Ed believes a soft landing is more likely than a severe recession.
• Financial Literacy & Family Dynamics: The panel underscores the importance of improving financial literacy, particularly for younger generations, to prepare them for long-term financial health. Brian also notes the complexities of advising families, emphasizing that advisors must adapt their communication styles to effectively engage all family members in the planning process.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ed Clissold:

• LinkedIn: Ed Clissold, CFA

Connect with Brian Portnoy:

• LinkedIn: Brian Portnoy, CFA

Connect with Adam Holt:

• LinkedIn: H. Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Is the Fed’s latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve’s significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment.

Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed’s policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today’s financial landscape.

Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon?

The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.

Key Highlights:

• Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed’s first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fears
• Resilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economy
• Consumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stable
• Stock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positive
• Housing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed’s rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growth
• Bond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy’s future growth rather than fears of a potential recession
• Future Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the case
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Staying ahead of market volatility requires more than just luck — it demands sharp technical insights and smart risk management.

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group are joined by Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT, Founder, and President at CappThesis. Together, they explore essential technical patterns and market signals that can help traders and financial advisors navigate volatility and optimize their strategies.

Is the bull market still on track for higher gains, or should traders prepare for turbulence?

Frank explores key topics, from the S&P 500's bullish target to the influence of inflation on investor sentiment. So, tune in as he offers actionable insights on using technical analysis for risk management and effective portfolio management.

Key Highlights:

• Bull Market Forecast: Frank targets 6,100 for the S&P 500 and explains what this milestone means for long-term investors
• Seasonal Trends: Discover why September is typically a volatile month and how to adjust your trading strategies accordingly
• Inflation’s Role: Get a detailed breakdown of recent CPI data, especially the impact of rising shelter costs on inflation, and how these figures affect market sentiment
• Defensive Sectors Outperforming: Learn why utilities and other defensive sectors are outpacing broader market performance — and what it signals for the future
• Gold vs. Oil: Examine the contrasting performance of gold as a safe haven versus oil’s fluctuations, especially in light of China’s economic challenges
• Networking and Community: Frank shares insights from the Excel conference on the value of idea-sharing and staying sharp in the investment community
• And much more!

Takeaway: To navigate today's markets, understanding key technical signals and being adaptable in risk management strategies is more important than ever.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Frank Cappelleri:

• LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT
• Website: CappThesis

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Frank Cappelleri is the founder of CappThesis, with over two decades of experience in the finance industry. He worked for major brokerage firms like Instinet and Smith Barney, gaining extensive expertise as an equity sales trader, desk strategist, and research sales specialist. His deep understanding of short-term market movements was shaped by early exposure to technical analysis and insights from experienced market technicians. Frank regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and other financial networks, and his work has been featured in major publications like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He holds both CFA and CMT designations.

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Tune in for our centennial celebration!

In this special milestone episode, we’re celebrating the 100th episode of Facts vs Feelings with a live audience and special guest Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Together with hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, Tom discusses market outlooks, evolving investment strategies, and key economic trends shaping the future.

What’s next for the S&P 500? How do historical patterns and Fed actions impact today's market? And why should financial advisors pay close attention to demographic trends and Bitcoin? Tom Lee offers his bold predictions, including the path to S&P 15,000 and the evolving role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios.

They discuss:

• Tom’s bold prediction: S&P 500 reaching 15,000 by 2030
• The impact of demographic trends on long-term market cycles
• Navigating short-term volatility, particularly in September and October
• Insights into Bitcoin’s potential and its role in a diversified portfolio
• The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and their influence on market outlook
• Strategies for small-cap stocks in a shifting economy
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Tom Lee:

• X: Tom Lee
• Website: Fundstrat

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998.

Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy and Telecom Services.

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charterholder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

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Understanding today’s economy requires a keen eye on labor markets, Federal Reserve policies, and fiscal strategies.

How do these factors interplay to shape the financial landscape? What practical advice can help investors stay grounded amid market noise?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Together they discuss the dynamic nature of the global economy. You'll learn about the practical applications of charts and data in economic analysis, the impact of monetary policy on recession fears, and the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Dr. Kelly also offers invaluable insights into the recent upward trends in productivity and the critical outlook for fiscal policy as we approach 2025.

They discuss:

• The role of charts and data in economic storytelling
• The evolving state of the labor market and productivity
• Implications of Jay Powell's Jackson Hole comments
• Key fiscal policy changes and their potential impacts
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Dr. David Kelly:

• LinkedIn: David Kelly
• J.P Morgan Asset Management

Interested in hearing more from Dr. David Kelly? Subscribe to his shows wherever you listen to podcasts.

• Notes on the Week Ahead - Published every Monday
• Insights Now and Alternative Realities - Episodes available every Thursday

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Dr. David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. With over 20 years of experience, David provides valuable insight and perspective on the economy and markets to the institutional investor and financial advisor global communities.

David’s research focuses on investment implications of an evolving economic environment. He has written extensively on all aspects of the U.S. economy and his proprietary U.S. economic forecasting model helps shape his views on both the economic landscape and prospective asset class returns. He currently sits on JP Morgan Fund’s operating committee.

Throughout his career, David has developed a unique ability to explain complex economic and market issues in a language that financial professionals can use to communicate to their clients. He is a keynote speaker at many national investment conferences and a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other financial media outlets.

Prior to joining J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David served as Economic Advisor to Putnam Investments. He has also served as a senior strategist/economist at SPP Investment Management, Primark Decision Economics, Lehman Brothers and DRI/McGraw-Hill.

David is a CFA® charterholder. He also has a Ph.D and M.A. in Economics from Michigan State University and a B.A. in Economics from University College Dublin in the Republic of Ireland.

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the financial industry, offering both exciting opportunities and significant challenges.

How is AI being integrated specifically into financial services? What are the potential risks and rewards of this technology?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Davi Fava, Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, for an in-depth conversation on artificial intelligence and its revolutionary impact on finance. Dani takes us through the intricate world of AI, explaining its incredible potential, addressing common fears, and highlighting how Carson Group is integrating this technology to better serve their clients.

Additionally to our conversation with Dani, Ryan and Sonu discuss the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of economic data on market trends, and the outlook for future market movements. They also touch on the role of small businesses and the Federal Reserve’s actions in shaping the economy.

Key topics discussed:

• New ways AI is transforming industries, especially finance
• Addressing fears and ethical considerations surrounding AI
• Practical applications of AI in daily financial operations and beyond
• The recent performance of the S&P 500, including the longest win streak in 20 years
• The impact of economic data, such as unemployment claims, on market trends
• The Federal Reserve’s actions and potential rate cuts
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Davi Fava:

• LinkedIn: Davi Fava

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Dani Fava serves the pivotal role of Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, wielding over two decades of experience in wealth management to drive our strategic direction. Charged with enhancing the client experience through differentiated products and services, Dani’s leadership is instrumental in shaping innovative growth strategies and advancing the industry on financial advice and the use of AI.

Before joining Carson Group, Dani held influential positions at Envestnet and TD Ameritrade, where she spearheaded initiatives such as digital onboarding, strategic partnerships, and AI integration. Dani’s contributions include the development of advisor technologies like iRebal and the Model Market Center, reflecting her commitment to empowering advisors with cutting-edge tools and insights. Her impact and forward-thinking vision earned her a spot on FinTech Magazine’s Top 100 Women in FinTech (2021), InvestmentNews’ Women to Watch (2020), and ThinkAdvisor’s 2020 IA25, underscoring her status as a trailblazer in wealth management innovation.

In addition to her professional achievements, Dani is recognized for her thought leadership in the industry, often speaking at conferences and contributing to discussions on the future of financial technology. Dani also serves on the board of Language & Culture Worldwide (LCW), a culture consulting company. This work is an extension of her commitment to see more inclusion in the wealth management industry.

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The month of August can often bring unexpected market volatility, and in this release we touch on the reasons behind it and how investors can stay prepared.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recurring phenomenon of August market volatility, discussing historical events that have shaken the markets during this seemingly unpredictable month.

Joined by insights from various professionals, they analyze the reasons behind these patterns and offer valuable perspectives on how investors can navigate the choppy waters of late summer trading.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Historical market disruptions in August and their catalysts
• The psychology of market participants during low-volume periods
• The recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hike
• The importance of having a diversified investment strategy to weather unexpected market shifts
• Key economic data, such as the unemployment rate and inflation expectations, and their impact on market outlook
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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How do you know when to stay the course or press the panic button during market volatility?

In this special episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Barry Gilbert, CFA®, Ph.D. Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, and Grant Engelbart CFA®, CAIA®, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group, for a discussion of this period of heightened market turmoil.

The team dives into the recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's actions, the impact of weak job data on the Fed's interest rate decisions, and the ripple effects on both global and domestic markets.

They discuss:

• The Bank of Japan's unexpected moves and their impact on global markets
• Analysis of recent job data and what it means for future Fed rate cuts
• How current earnings reports reflect broader market conditions
• Diversification strategies to manage risk
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart:

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Barry Gilbert:

Barry Gilbert is a Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist. As the VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, Barry Gilbert combines a background in thought leadership with a pragmatic and disciplined approach to portfolio management.

Barry holds a PhD in philosophy from Boston University, an MA from the Pennsylvania State University, and a BA from Haverford College. A former educator, he taught finance and economics in the MSF and MBA programs at Northeastern University’s D’Amore-McKim School of Business. Prior to his career in asset management, Barry taught philosophy, the history of ideas, and writing and rhetoric at Harvard University, Trinity College and Boston University, and has served as a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, an international think tank in politics and economics.

About Grant Engelbart:

Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team.

Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, DACFP Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets, Candriam Certificate in Sustainable and Responsible Investing and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry.

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How do you balance rigorous research with open-mindedness in investing? How do you communicate effectively with clients during volatile times?

This week, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management, for an insightful discussion on market strategies and the nuances of value investing.

Cliff shares his thoughts on the current state of value investing, explores the concept of 'value spread,' and even dips into some fun side topics.

They discuss:

• The current state of value investing and why it has seen challenging periods
• Insights into how AQR navigates market anomalies
• The importance of communication and transparency with clients
• Fun personal insights into Cliff’s interests outside of finance, from hot sauce to superhero movies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Cliff Asness:

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness
• X: Cliff Asness
• Website: AQR Capital Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year’s best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers’ Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals.

Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum.

Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in both. He received an M.B.A. with high honors and a Ph.D. in finance from the University of Chicago, where he was Eugene Fama’s student and teaching assistant for two years.

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Market chaos and travel nightmares might seem unrelated, but they both reveal deeper systemic issues and opportunities.

How do travel disruptions reflect broader economic vulnerabilities? What historical parallels can we draw to understand current market trends?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss their recent travel challenges due to the massive IT outage, inflation data, and bullish market indicators. They also touch on the impact of President Biden stepping down from the elections, as well as consumer and industrial strength.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• How a major IT upgrade by CrowdStrike disrupted the world on Friday
• The implications of President Biden stepping down from the elections and historical parallels with 1968
• Upcoming PCE inflation data and its potential impact on future rate cuts
• Current bull market signals, highlighting significant rallies in the Russell 2000 and S&P 500
• Insights into economic data, inflation trends, and consumer behavior
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Inflation is no longer the primary concern for investors, as market dynamics begin to shift and new opportunities arise.

How do recent inflation trends impact market behavior? What are the implications of the recent rally in small caps, and how do geopolitical events influence market reactions?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into recent market dynamics, focusing on how the rally in small caps and improving inflation data indicate fresh opportunities in the investment landscape.

Listen as they discuss the implications of these movements, including the enhanced breadth in the stock market and the potential for a dovish shift from the Fed.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent incident involving Donald Trump and the market reaction
• The recent CPI data and the surprising improvements in inflation
• The extraordinary performance of small and midcap stocks
• What a rotational bull market means for different sectors
• The ongoing strength of the consumer backed by robust retail sales
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Carson’s midyear outlook “Eyes on The Prize” is out now!

How do you balance immediate market reactions with overarching economic indicators? What strategies can help investors stay focused amidst market noise?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into their midyear outlook, discussing everything from the economy and inflation to the Fed's position and stock market expectations. You'll hear about their insights into the labor market's strength, inflation trends, and the possibility of future Fed rate cuts.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The current state and future outlook of the U.S. economy
• Recent trends in inflation and the Federal Reserve's next moves
• Stock market analysis and predictions for the second half of the year
• Portfolio strategies and the role of alternatives in today's financial landscape
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Midyear Outlook '24: Eyes on The Prize
• Live Webinar Link - Tuesday, July 16 at 1pm CT

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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What drives the relentless ascent of stock prices, and how does a tech giant like Nvidia find itself at the forefront of market value?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into the current bull market and discuss potential future trends.

They analyze Nvidia's astonishing rise, making it the most valuable company in the world for a brief moment, and what that means for other tech giants and the broader market. You'll gain insights into the first half of the year's stock performance and the economic indicators that are shaping investor sentiment. Special attention is given to the resilience of the U.S. economy, sector performances, and expectations for the year's second half.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Analysis of Nvidia's explosive growth and its impact on the stock market
• A review of first-half stock performance and what it implies for the second half of the year
• Key economic indicators, including industrial production and consumer spending
• Insights into the resilience of the U.S. economy and sector performances beyond tech
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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What is the biggest mistake the Fed could potentially make? With inflation cooling off, is the change in the Fed’s behavior the right move?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dissect the Federal Reserve's recent decisions, the outlook for inflation, and why the economy's resilience might lead to unexpected outcomes. They dive into market breadth, the complexities of inflation data, and explore whether the Fed's continued hawkish stance is justified amid signs of softening inflation.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Market breadth and its impact on equity performance
• Inflation trends and underlying improvements in CPI and PPI data
• The Fed's recent hawkish signals and what they mean for future rate cuts
• Clarification on the so-called petrodollar issue and its implications
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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It's always a great time to talk with a key individual in the industry, and today we are excited to welcome back Professor Jeremy Siegel!

In this special episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group sit down with Professor Jeremy Siegel, Professor Emeritus & Chief Economist at Wisdomtree Asset Management, to explore topics ranging from the stock market to AI's impact on GDP and the Federal Reserve's role in shaping the economy. They uncover the timeless principles of investing and the potential of AI to revolutionize productivity and growth.

Together they cover:

• Why stocks still offer attractive returns over bonds despite yields
• A comparison of today's tech stock valuations with the 2000s dot-com bubble
• Emotional vs. rational decision-making in bear markets.
• Potential long-term benefits of AI on GDP growth and investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Professor Jeremy Siegel (Ep. 26)
• Talking About Markets and Life with Jeremy Schwartz (Ep. 87)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He graduated from Columbia University in 1967, received his Ph.D. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1971, and spent one year as a National Science Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellow at Harvard University.

Prof. Siegel taught for four years at the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago before joining the Wharton faculty in 1976. He has written and lectured extensively about the economy and financial markets, has appeared frequently on CNN, CNBC, NPR and others networks. He is a regular columnist for Kiplinger’s and Yahoo! Finance and has contributed articles to The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other national and international news media.

Prof. Siegel served for 15 years as head of economics training at JP Morgan and is currently the academic director of the U.S. Securities Industry Institute. Prof. Siegel is the author of numerous professional articles and three books.

Prof. Siegel is currently the academic director of the U.S. Securities Industry Institute. He also currently serves as Senior Investment Strategy Advisor of WisdomTree Investments, Inc., consulting the firm on its proprietary stock indexes. He is also a member of the company’s board of directors.

Professor Jeremy Siegel is not affiliated with CWM, LLC.

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As whispers of a slowing economy grow louder, investors strive for clarity.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dissect the current economic signals and their implications for investors. They explore the recent stock market reactions to political events and delve into the broader economic indicators that are fueling concerns about a potential slowdown.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Global stock market fluctuations related to elections in India and Mexico
• Understanding the role news plays in market volatility
• The strong performance of the stock market in May and the implications for the market in June
• Analysis of recent data on inflation and economic growth
• Insights into consumer behavior and its influence on market trends
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Markets remain uncertain, but sitting down with top industry insiders can help clear the uncertainties.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree Asset Management. Together they engage in a rich conversation on the current state of global markets, the impact of inflation, tech stocks, the future of interest rates and more!

Jeremy discusses:

• His journey with Professor Siegel and the inception of WisdomTree Asset Management
• The nuances of currency valuation and the implications for international investing
• Insights into the Japanese market, Warren Buffett’s investment strategies, and the potential of India as an investment destination
• The competitive landscape of China’s market and the tactical considerations for investors
• The potential for AI to revolutionize productivity and its long-term implications for the economy
• The importance of real-time data in understanding economic indicators like inflation and housing costs
• The influence of tech companies on market indices and the broader implications for sector-based investing
• The future of interest rates and the debate between market expectations and Federal Reserve projections
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Jeremy Schwartz:

• LinkedIn: Jeremy Schwartz
• X: Jeremy Schwartz

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Jeremy Schwartz has served as our Global Chief Investment Officer since November 2021 and leads WisdomTree’s investment strategy team in the construction of WisdomTree’s equity Indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset Model Portfolios. Jeremy joined WisdomTree in May 2005 as a Senior Analyst, adding Deputy Director of Research to his responsibilities in February 2007. He served as Director of Research from October 2008 to October 2018 and as Global Head of Research from November 2018 to November 2021. Before joining WisdomTree, he was a head research assistant for Professor Jeremy Siegel and, in 2022, became his co-author on the sixth edition of the book Stocks for the Long Run. Jeremy is also co-author of the Financial Analysts Journal paper “What Happened to the Original Stocks in the S&P 500?” He received his B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and hosts the Wharton Business Radio program Behind the Markets on SiriusXM 132. Jeremy is a member of the CFA Society of Philadelphia.

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As investors contemplate the significance of the Dow hitting 40,000, they are wondering about the market’s next moves.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat about the Dow reaching 40,000, the implications for investors, and the broader market sentiment. They also touch on the current state of inflation, analyzing recent reports and their implications for the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The milestone of the Dow reaching 40,000 and its historical significance
• The role of earnings growth and market multiples in driving the recent market rally
• The importance of momentum and breadth in the current market rally
• The outlook for the stock market given the current economic indicators and historical trends
• The latest inflation reports and their impact on the market
• The Fed’s target for core PC inflation and market expectations
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Discover the vision and strategy behind Carson Group’s evolution as Burt White steps into the role of CEO!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Burt White, CEO at Carson Group, to explore the company’s direction under his leadership and the legacy of service excellence they aim to uphold.

Together they discuss:

• Burt’s recent appointment as CEO and the seamless transition of leadership within Carson Group
• The concept of ‘Peak Service’ and how Carson Group is redefining service standards in the wealth management industry
• The importance of client-focused metrics and the impact of small business ethos on financial advice
• The dynamic partnership between Burt and Ron Carson, highlighting their complementary strengths and shared vision for the company
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Burt White:

• LinkedIn: Burt White

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

A prominent voice and advocate for the independent advisor, Burt White is Chief Executive Officer at Carson Group. He helps steer the company’s strategic focus as a member of Carson’s executive board.

Drawing on decades of industry experience, Burt augments and elevates the firm’s opportunities for growth across corporate and investment strategies. He works with Carson’s investment team to build and deliver an investment ecosystem that drives growth for the firm’s 140+ partners, who collectively manage $30 billion in assets.

Burt’s excitement to redefine how our industry talks about wealth shines through in his work. He believes adaptability is a superpower and is highly motivated to innovate, pioneer and deliver forward-thinking industry thought-leadership.

Burt is passionate about making a meaningful impact in the lives of clients and advisors. Given that passion and his unique talent for client storytelling, he is well equipped to help our advisors best serve clients and generate new business.

Carson Group Founder and Chairman Ron Carson calls Burt a visionary in the industry who understands where the profession is and where it needs to go.

Before joining the Carson team, Burt served for 14 years as Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at LPL Financial. There, he fostered the development and evolution of LPL’s capabilities to effectively support advisor efficiency and growth.

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The art of stock picking is a skill that can lead to significant rewards for those who master it.

How does one sift through the noise to identify undervalued gems? What does it take to maintain a long-term perspective in a market driven by short-term sentiments?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Eddy Elfenbein, Portfolio Manager, to explore his journey as a well-known stock picker. They dive into several topics, such as Eddy's approach to selecting stocks, his ETF, thoughts on macroeconomic trends, and the importance of being optimistic about the stock market.

Eddy discusses:

• The thrill and challenges of being a true stock picker in an era dominated by passive investing
• The evolution of his career, from sharing stock picks on his blog to managing an ETF with a unique fulcrum fee structure
• The importance of simplifying complex market concepts and the dangers of Wall Street’s tendency to overcomplicate
• Insights into the macroeconomic picture, exploring employment rates, nominal GDP growth, the strength of the labor market, and interest rates
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Eddy Elfenbein:

• X: Eddy Elfenbein
• Website: Crossing Wall Street

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:Eddy Elfenbein is a passionate and dedicated individual who has devoted his career to helping investors navigate the stock market.

He is the founder of a website, Crossing Wall Street, where he shares his unbiased views on the market.

Eddy believes in the power of the stock market as the most consistently successful way to make money over the long term. He is a firm advocate of the ‘buy and hold’ strategy, emphasizing the importance of investing in outstanding companies.

His goal is to help people avoid common investing mistakes and become successful investors.

In addition to his website, Eddy also manages an Exchange Traded Fund (CWS) based on his Buy List.

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Staying on top of market trends and reviewing investment strategies is crucial for investors looking to optimize their portfolios.

What does May look like historically when we look back on previous years?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, discuss the current state of the market, exploring what to expect in May and the factors influencing its direction. Additionally, they touch on GDP, inflation, and the Fed.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The significance of the “Sell in May and go away” strategy and its relevance to the current market conditions
• The impact of GDP numbers on market perception and the reality behind these statistics
• The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation and anticipated interest rate policies.
• The role of consumer spending and investment in driving economic growth
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Market volatility is a constant companion for investors, but understanding the underlying economic indicators can provide a clearer path forward.

How do we interpret the recent market pullback? What do the surging yields and inflation data tell us about the future economic outlook?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recent market pullback, the surge in yields, and what these indicators mean for the economy. They dive into the reasons behind the market’s behavior, the impact of inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s potential actions.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent market pullback and its implications for investors
• The surge in bond yields and what it signals about economic growth expectations
• The role of inflation data in shaping market sentiment and Federal Reserve policies
• The potential long-term impact of current economic trends on market performance
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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Discover the transformative power of AI as we explore its impact on the tech industry and beyond!

This week on the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Dan Ives, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities.

They dive into the long-term implications of AI, the comparison between the current tech transformation and historical moments, and the potential of AI to drive unprecedented growth in various sectors.

Dan discusses:

• The significance of AI in driving the next wave of technological advancement, likening it to the internet’s inception
• The role of major tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft in leading the AI revolution and the potential for smaller, innovative companies to emerge as key players
• The impact of geopolitical factors on the tech industry, particularly in relation to Chinese tech companies and the U.S. market
• The importance of embracing different perspectives, including bearish views, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the tech market’s trajectory
• Blockchain technology and its potential use cases beyond cryptocurrency prices
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Dan Ives:

• LinkedIn: Dan Ives
• X: Dan Ives

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Daniel Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018. Dan has been a tech analyst on Wall Street for over two decades covering the software and the broader technology sector. He spent the first few years of his career as a financial analyst at HBO and then received his MBA in Finance before becoming a globally known technology equity research analyst and Managing Director with FBR Capital Markets for 16 years, focusing on the enterprise software/hardware sectors including cyber security, cloud computing, big data technology, and the mobile landscape. A major area of his research focus is electric vehicles and disruptive technology over the next decade.

Dan is a highly sought-after tech expert around the world, has been a keynote speaker across the US, Europe, and Asia, and regularly makes television appearances on networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, BBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, and Fox News to provide commentary related to his technology expertise. Dan can be heard regularly doing radio on the tech sector for Bloomberg, ABC News, NPR, BBC, and other radio broadcasts throughout the US, Europe, and Asia. Dan is often cited globally by publications such as The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Investor’s Business Daily, Chicago Tribune, NY Post, Los Angeles Times, The Telegraph, San Francisco Chronicle, Time Magazine, The Washington Post, The Guardian, South China Morning Post, Barron’s, The Times of London, Financial Times, The Sydney Morning Herald, and New York Times, among many others.

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With the bull market we have had for several months now, it is normal for some to have doubts about its continuation.

What can we expect for the markets? How is the economy doing and why should investors consider it?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's performance amidst economic indicators and Federal Reserve policy considerations. They navigate through employment growth, GDP, inflation, and inflation expectations, illuminating how these factors influence market sentiment and investor strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Updates on the stock market and what we can expect based on historical trends
• The resilience and growth of the job market contrary to skeptical viewpoints
• Debunking the myth of part-time employment dominating new job growth
• The performance of GDP and GDI and its implications for investors
• The nuances of inflation and its current trajectory in the economy
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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In a world where technology rapidly reshapes the landscape of industries, disruptive innovation stands at the forefront of this transformation. It challenges the status quo, propels economies forward, and redefines what is possible.

As we dive into the minds of those who navigate these territories, we gain invaluable insights into the future of finance, investment, and the global economy.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, to explore the intricacies of disruptive innovation, the significance of technical analysis in investment strategies, and the potential underestimation of GDP growth due to technological advancements. Cathie Wood shares her bullish perspective on Bitcoin and emphasizes the importance of female leadership and coding in the future of finance.

Cathie discusses:

• Her motivation for starting ARK Invest and the unique approach of the firm
• The significance of Tesla in the context of artificial intelligence and its competitive advantages
• Her perspective on GDP growth expectations and historical technology waves
• Her view on Bitcoin as a monetary revolution
• The possibility of introducing more ETFs
• Her insights on the future of coding
• Her advice for young women in finance, focusing on knowledge, performance measurement, and staying focused on long-term goals
• The rapid growth and future valuation of disruptive innovation in equity markets
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Cathie Wood:

• LinkedIn: Cathie Wood
• X: Cathie Wood
• Website: ARK Invest

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Cathie Wood registered ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2014. With over 40 years of experience identifying and investing in innovation, Cathie founded ARK to focus solely on disruptive innovation while adding new dimensions to research. Through an open approach that cuts across sectors, market capitalizations, and geographies, Cathie believes that ARK can identify large-scale investment opportunities in the public markets resulting from technological innovations centered around DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage, and blockchain technology. As Chief Investment Officer (“CIO”) and Portfolio Manager, Cathie led the development of ARK’s philosophy and investment approach and has ultimate responsibility for investment decisions.

Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as CIO of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed over $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded, which in 2000, managed approximately $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates LLC as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director.

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"Inflation is on a glide path lower." Neil Dutta from RenMac LLC shares his thoughts with us today on Facts vs Feelings, offering a fresh perspective on the current economic landscape. Despite a rocky start in January, there's a sense of optimism in the air.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group discuss economic insights with Neil Dutta, Head of Economics, RenMac LLC. Neil challenges the consensus on slowing economic growth and dismisses long and variable lags in monetary policy. The trio also explores the role of real-world indicators, the impact of commodity shocks, and the Federal Reserve's actions on the economy. They delve into entrepreneurship, productivity, and the potential of AI in investing.

Neil discusses:

• The economy and fiscal responses
• Real-world indicators of economic activity
• Current market conditions and economic indicators
• Concerns about lack of positioning for upside risk scenarios
• Potential impact of AI on productivity and investing
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Live on Leap Day with Facts vs Feelings
• RenMac Podcast

Connect with Neil Dutta:

• Renaissance Macro Research
• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads RenMac’s macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.

Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.

A business economist with 2 decades of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.

In his spare time, Neil tries to entertain his three kids. When he is not at his desk, or with his kids, Neil is traveling somewhere with his wife, Puja. The couple currently resides in New Jersey after spending many years in Brooklyn.

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Over the last 20 weeks, we have seen a huge rally in the stock market, led by tech stocks like Nvidia, which has led some to believe that we are in a bubble.

Is that true?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into whether the market is truly in a bubble, suggesting that diversification is crucial as earnings growth shows resilience. The conversation also covers interest rates, Japan’s economy, inflation, and the impact of defense spending on the economy, hinting at potential future increases in defense investment.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Whether the current market situation is a bubble
• Japan's shift from negative interest rates to 0.1% and its connection to wage growth and inflation
• Prediction and analysis of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
• CPI, core inflation, shelter impact, and food inflation
• The low defense spending and its impact on the economy
• Strong labor market, income, and consumption
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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The market’s changing trends and sentiments play a pivotal role in determining smart investment strategies.

When we look at the massive rally the stock market has seen over the last few months, what is expected for the market in the near future?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent market rally and the lack of a buying frenzy, despite all-time highs. They dive into specific stocks and market sentiment, reflecting on lessons from past financial crises and the importance of a long-term perspective. The conversation also covers job reports, interest rate, productivity, and more!

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The market rally, impact of magazine covers featuring bullish sentiments, and potential market trends
• The shift in market sentiment
• The performance of specific stocks like Nvidia, Super Micro, Tesla, Amazon, Google, and Apple
• An analysis of job productivity and the overall economic roundup
• Explaining the household survey and the unemployment rate
• An explanation of the strong productivity and its connection to the labor market
• Jerome Powell's speech and its impact on the market
• The relationship between gold, real interest rates, and storage costs, and its implications for investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

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As the race to the White House heats up, experts from the financial sector weigh in on the high-stakes implications of the upcoming presidential election.

Today on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the upcoming presidential election's potential effects on financial markets with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. They dissect the political landscape's influence on the markets and discuss Joe Biden's likelihood of remaining the Democratic nominee, comparing the current political climate to historical elections. Their conversation also covers pivotal issues that could sway key battleground states, and how re-election campaigns might influence stock market performance. Additionally, they touch on the role of Congress in fiscal policy and the implications for equity and bond markets.

Libby discusses:

• The impact of the upcoming presidential election on financial markets
• Significance of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
• The government spending deficit and its implications
• The strength of the US economy
• Potential nominees for the presidential election
• Importance of state polling in critical states
• The impact fiscal policy has on stock market performance
• And more!
• The charitable entities and/or fundraising opportunities described herein are not endorsed by, or affiliated with CWM, LLC., or its affiliates. Our philanthropic interests are personal to us and are not reviewed, sponsored, or approved by CWM, LLC.

Resources:

• Donate to St. Judes - Events.stjude.org/leapday
• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Libby Cantrill:

• PIMCO
• LinkedIn: Libby Cantrill

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Ms. Cantrill is head of U.S. public policy and a managing director in PIMCO's portfolio management group. In her role, she analyzes policy and political risk for the firm’s Investment Committee and leads U.S. policymaker engagement and policy strategy for the firm. She also works closely with PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board, led by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. She has served as a rotating member of the firm’s Executive Committee and is a founding member of PIMCO Families and PIMCO Women. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2007, she served as a legislative aide in the House of Representatives and also worked in the investment banking division at Morgan Stanley. She has 19 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and received her undergraduate degree in economics from Brown University. Ms. Cantrill is a CFA charter holder and a regular contributor to Bloomberg and CNBC. She is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and sits on the boards of Covenant House New York and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association ("SIFMA").

Libby Cantrill is not affiliated with CWM, LLC.

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Can NVIDIA sustain its remarkable earnings growth?

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze the stock market's current state, with a special focus on NVIDIA's stellar earnings and the market's overall positioning. They discuss their strategic investment preferences, favoring sectors like industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare, while maintaining a neutral stance on technology and communications. They’re optimistic about the market's broad-based expansion and highlight the importance of managing volatility in their diverse portfolio offerings. Additionally, they share personal anecdotes from industry events and reflect on Warren Buffett's investment strategies, emphasizing the significance of buying at fair prices and the use of leverage.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• NVIDIA's impressive earnings and financial performance
• Analysis of market performance and concerns about the concentration of gains
• Overweight stance on equities and preference for sectors such as industrials, financials, energy, and healthcare
• Emphasis on sector rotation and overweight position in small and mid-cap stocks
• Optimism about broad-based expansion and GDP growth
• Importance of managing volatility in investment portfolios
• Importance of diversification in the bond market and defensive market strategies
• Warren Buffett's investment strategies and leverage utilization
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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We are confronted with a key question as we deal with economic downshifts and market swings.

Does the latest data really reflect an economic slowdown?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze various indicators to assess the pace of economic growth, including market performance, inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and trends in retail sales and industrial production. Additionally, they explore the impact of younger generations on historical progress and provide insights into GDP growth and income trends, offering a comprehensive economic check-up.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• An analysis of the stock market's performance, focusing on small and mid-cap stocks
• Yearly market trends, corrections, and the Valentine's Day indicator
• Larry Summers' predictions and their significance in the market
• Different inflation metrics such as CPI, PPI, and PCE, and their relevance in assessing inflation trends
• Recent inflation trends and the potential impact on Fed rate cuts and market expectations
• An analysis of retail sales and industrial production data
• The current economic slowdown and comparison with previous years
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Join the Live on Leap Day with Facts vs Feelings!

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Bitcoin ETFs are one of the most anticipated and debated developments in the crypto space.

What are the implications for the market, the economy, and crypto's future?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, speak with Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management about the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market, offering a new investment avenue. They explore Bitcoin's role as an asset class or currency within traditional portfolios. Ryan and Sonu also cover the CPI data, its implications for inflation, and market expectations.

Listen to the episode to learn about:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data
• The stock market’s performance, historical seasonality, and the likelihood of a market pullback
• The increase in household net worth and credit card debt, highlighting the overall financial situation of consumers
• The significance of Bitcoin ETF approval and its impact on financial advisors and investors
• Fund flows from GBTC to new Bitcoin ETFs
• Adding Bitcoin to portfolios, its historical returns, volatility, and the potential benefits for investors
• The likelihood of Ethereum ETFs
• Short-term and long-term drivers of Bitcoin’s value
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Matthew Hougan:

• LinkedIn: Matthew Hougan
• X: Matt Hougan
• Bitwise Asset Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Matt Hougan is a well-known expert in the fields of cryptocurrency, ETFs, and financial technology. He currently serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, which is the world's largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds and manages over $1.5 billion in assets.

Before this, he was the CEO of ETF.com and Inside ETFs. During his tenure, he played a key role in developing the world's first ETF data and analytics system, the most popular ETF media platform, and the world's largest ETF conference.

Matt serves as a board member for Equbot and is also a strategic advisor to several startups related to cryptocurrency and financial advising, such as Blockworks, Stratifi, and Exchange. He co-founded Advisor Circle, which is a product and content studio for the financial industry and also created the Futureproof Wealth Festival.

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From the stock market hitting all-time highs to new tax bills, positive economic indicators, and even the Super Bowl, there's a lot to keep track of when it comes to finance and investing this week!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, provide an in-depth analysis of current economic indicators, including jobs, productivity, and consumer confidence. They also touch on the potential for a stock market breather in February amidst election buzz. Additionally, they examine a new tax bill that could inject more money into the economy and give the stock market a boost.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The stock market hitting all-time highs, historical February performance, and potential market consolidation
• A bipartisan tax bill moving through Congress and its potential impact on business and individual finances
• An analysis of the Super Bowl indicator and its historical correlation with stock market performance
• The Fed's approach to potential rate cuts and market expectations
• A comparison of income-driven and credit-driven economic cycles and their impacts on the economy
• An analysis of the strong job market report and consumer confidence data
• The importance of productivity in driving positive economic outcomes
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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The stock market has been on a remarkable run, reaching new highs and defying expectations.

But what are the drivers behind this rally, and what are the risks ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze recent market trends, including the stock market's highs and the implications of the upcoming Fed meeting. They explore the significance of January's market performance, particularly in the financial sector, as an indicator for the year's outlook. Additionally, they cover the recent GDP report, offering insights into the economy's trajectory.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The positive implications of the market making new highs and its historical performance
• Potential factors that could disrupt the bullish market trajectory
• The significance of January performance and its potential impact on the market for the rest of the year
• Forecasting the Fed’s decision and its potential impact on the market
• The strong fourth quarter GDP growth, consumption, and investment spending, and its implications on the economy
• Comparison of nominal GDP growth in the US and China
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Facts Vs. Feelings Ep. 69 - Can You Take Me Higher

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Now that the stock market has reached its all-time high, what can we expect?

Which ways can the latest economic indicators and international markets affect us?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dive into the stock market's recent all-time highs and their implications for investors. They also cover the importance of manufacturing and high-tech industries for the economy. Additionally, they examine global economic factors, including China's influence on markets and the comparative strengths of the US economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Historical data on all-time highs, patterns of all-time highs over the years, and the likelihood of continued all-time highs
• Analysis of the increase in consumer confidence
• An analysis of retail sales
• The importance of manufacturing for the economy, including high-paying jobs and the impact on supply chains
• The positive trends in high-tech production and its impact on the economy
• The impact of Taiwan Semiconductor's growth on the semiconductor market and its implications for investors
• The impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock markets, particularly in Taiwan and China
• The impact of China's economic slowdown on global markets
• A Comparison of the growth rates of the US and China economies
• The potential momentum in small and mid-cap stocks and the significance of GDP growth
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues.

How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the economic outlook and global issues. They also dive into the implications of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility, and risk tolerance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, they touch on inflation and rates, referencing the CPI and PPI, the M2 concerns, and the male labor participation rate.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The geopolitical scene, focusing on the Red Sea issues and the impact on global shipping and oil prices
• The recent election in Taiwan and the potential impact on China
• The drama surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approval
• An analysis of inflation data, including CPI and PPI, and its impact on potential rate cuts by the Fed
• The significance of M2 being negative year over year and its potential impact on the economy
• The male labor participation rate and its comparison to historical levels
• The beginning of earnings season, bank performance, and significant developments in the aviation and technology sectors
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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With signals of growth faced against global uncertainties, what can we expect from the global economy in 2024?

How will these factors affect the performance of various sectors and markets, and what strategies can investors adopt to navigate this year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2024 outlook on the economy and stock market. They analyze the surprises from 2023 and explain why there is still no likelihood of a recession. Additionally, they explore potential Fed rate cuts and provide an outlook for bonds, housing, manufacturing, and fixed income strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Surprises and trends from 2023, including economic growth and employment gains
• The main drivers to avoid a recession
• The current labor market, job creation, unemployment rate, and wage growth
• Productivity's impact on economic growth and the outlook for 2024
• The likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their potential impact on the economy
• The outlook for stocks and bonds in 2024
• The influence of housing demand, supply, and interest rates, as well as the impact of fiscal policy on manufacturing and construction
• The market's historical performance in midterm and pre-election years
• The strength in small and mid-cap stocks
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Market trends and potential outlook for 2024
• Factors contributing to the recent market rally
• Performance of small and mid-cap stocks
• The significance of small-cap industries
• Early versus late economic cycle indicators
• Impact of inflation and rate cuts on market performance
• Forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024
• Likelihood of positive returns in the market
• The importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategies
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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With 2024 just around the corner, there are big uncertainties for the U.S. economy regarding inflation, interest rates, political uncertainty, and a possible recession.

How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment? What are the sectors to look at?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, to explore the 2024 economic outlook of Ned Davis Research.

They discuss the effects of the political uncertainty, what sectors to watch in 2024, the possibility of a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks and the implications of higher short-term interest rates. Additionally, they touch on the labor market, the Fed, and the possibility of a recession.

Together they discuss:

• Ed’s over 20 years at NDR, emphasizing the collaborative and data-driven approach
• Whether the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy and the potential turbulence ahead
• The chance of a recession and the factors contributing to this risk
• The political implications for the Fed's decision-making process
• The importance of considering both soft data and hard data in analyzing the economy and the mixed signals they provide
• The historical market performance during presidential election years
• The potential rotation towards small and mid-cap stocks
• Jerome Powell's performance as the Fed Chair
• The favored sectors and the underweighted sectors for the upcoming year
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ed Clissold:

• Twitter: @edclissold
• LinkedIn: Ed Clissold
• Ned Davis Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector, and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.

Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles.

Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co.

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The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strength, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and ever-evolving global uncertainties.

One of the most encouraging indicators is the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November.

What does this mean for the markets? What is the outlook for 2024?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the current state of the economy and job market, inflation, and market performance. They address the good news of the unemployment drop, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, and the positive outlook for investors in 2024.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The positive trends in the job market, highlighting the recent good news in employment numbers
• The significance of the JOLTS report, highlighting Jerome Powell's concern over openings per unemployed worker
• The recent decrease in used car prices and its potential impact on inflation
• The current state of inflation and the Fed's decision to keep rates high, with speculation on potential rate cuts in the future
• Why small caps and mid-caps have been outperforming
• The positive stock market indicators
• An anticipation for the Fed meeting and the discussion on potential rate cuts for 2024, as well as the upcoming CPI report
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer.

With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators and factors that suggest that the current economic situation is not indicative of a recession, and that the stock market is still optimistic about the future. They also pay tribute to Charlie Munger, one of the most influential and respected investors of our time, and share some of his wisdom and insights on investing and life.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The strong performance of stocks in November and the resilience of the 60/40 portfolio
• An analysis of the S&P 500 performance after gaining 8.9% in a month
• Quotes and insights from Charlie Munger, emphasizing his ability to connect with people through stories and his advice on investing
• The Dow and S&P 500 are at or near all-time highs, indicating that the market is looking forward and suggesting that a recession is not currently expected
• The strong performance and growth in manufacturing and construction sectors
• An Analysis of the robustness of balance sheets in corporate America and households
• The sustained strength of consumer spending, with references to net wealth, stock ownership, and consumption trends
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors.

Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group chat about the year-end rally in the stock market, exploring factors such as seasonal trends, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and positive market sentiment. Additionally, they touch on record-breaking Black Friday sales, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact on the housing market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The year-end rally in the stock market and the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish
• The S&P's four-week win streak and the significance of persistent buying in the market
• The broadening participation of sectors and stocks in the market rally
• Black Friday sales and statistics
• Consumer debt and net worth, highlighting how households are in better financial shape now compared to pre-COVID times
• Why the increase in mortgage rates did not have a significant impact on the consumer and the housing market
• A speculation on the potential for inflation to decrease and rate cuts to occur in 2024
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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The Sahm Rule is an indicator that detects recessions in real-time based on changes in the unemployment rate. This rule was proposed by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and a leading expert on macroeconomic policy.

Today, we learn about the Sahm Rule and more!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Claudia Sahm, Independent Macroeconomist Consultant, about the Sahm Rule, unemployment, and the current economic landscape. They explore the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from Claudia's time at the Federal Reserve.

They discuss:

• The origin of the Sahm Rule and its purpose as an indicator of recession based on the national unemployment rate
• The mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs
• The importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index
• The current situation of low unemployment and strong wage growth
• Insights on the Federal Reserve's hiking and cutting policies
• The potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments
• The biggest macroeconomic surprise for 2024
• The poor sentiment despite the economy performing well
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Claudia Sahm:

• LinkedIn: Claudia Sahm
• Twitter (X): @Claudia_Sahm
• Substack: Claudia Sahm

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Claudia Sahm is an economist, formerly director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, and a Section Chief at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She is best known for the development of the Sahm Rule, a Federal Reserve Economic Data indicator for identifying recessions.

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With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates?

How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the stock market. They explore the recent inflation data and its implications for the Fed. Additionally, they touch on the potential catalysts for a year-end market rally and the current state of credit spreads in the market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The inflation data and how it confirms the belief that the Fed is done with rate hikes
• The positive impact of lower inflation on small cap stocks
• Why small caps and midcaps are performing well due to expectations of lower interest rates
• A potential year-end rally
• How rising interest rates negatively affected stocks
• The potential positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage rates and housing activity
• Optimism about opportunities in the market
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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A number of factors and causing the stock market to continue to experience high volatility, causing uncertainty for investors.

With October’s correction, are there signs of a market bottom? A potential rally?

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Carsons' Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese explain why stocks may have just bottomed, despite the market correction and bearish sentiment. Ryan and Sonu discuss their predictions about the S&P 500's gain after the midterm elections, as well as the key factors affecting the labor market, and the significance and economic impact of rising productivity.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent market rally, including the Fed's influence, positive job numbers, and historical data on stock market corrections
• The historical trend of the S&P 500 being up on average 14.1% one year after midterm elections
• How the Fed's rate hikes in the past affected the economy and how the current pause in rate hikes is different
• An analysis of the recent jobs report, its impact on interest rates and stock market, and the potential impact of strikes on the numbers
• The Sahm Rule and its potential implications for a recession
• An analysis of layoffs and their impact on the overall job market stability
• The significance of productivity and labor force growth in driving real economic growth
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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October 2023 proved to be a challenging month for the stock market.

Various factors, such as geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, earnings disappointments, and the Federal Reserve's policy, caused the market to suffer a decline in sentiment and confidence.

What are the projections for the market's performance for the remainder of the year?

In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese talk about the recent market correction and its potential as a healthy adjustment. They explore how geopolitical risks may have influenced the market and remain optimistic about a year-end rally. Additionally, they speculate on the Federal Reserve's actions.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent stock market correction, its causes, and the potential for a rebound
• Previous bear markets and their impact on market returns
• The resilience of the economy despite challenges like the pandemic
• McDonald's positive earnings despite price increases, indicating consumer demand and potential economic signals
• The US economy's growth post-pandemic with other countries
• The better-than-expected Q3 GDP growth
• The increase in government spending and defense spending
• Three lesser-known positive indicators in the economy
• The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and the likelihood of a rate hike
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Talking Investing Lessons with Cliff Asness (Ep. 55)
• Talking About the Bond Bear Market with Daniel Ivascyn (Ep. 57)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges and uncertainties, which has disrupted supply chains, boosted inflation, and strained fiscal and monetary policies.

How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment, and what are the implications for the bond market?

Today, we chat about this and more with a very special guest!

In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese speak with Daniel Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO. They explore the current state of the economy, rising yields, and the future path of inflation. Dan also shares details about the role of PIMCO's advisory board and the value of bonds as diversifiers for stocks. Additionally, he talks about his experiences in the industry, his mentors, and his early experiences.

They discuss:

• The main drivers behind the increase in yields
• Why the economy has remained strong despite the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve
• The factors influencing nominal bond yields
• The experience of taking over a large company
• The value in fixed income markets for long-term investors
• The role of bonds as a diversifier for stocks
• Concerns about companies with lower credit ratings facing challenges in borrowing and rolling over debt
• His early struggles in trading markets and the mentorship he received
• Why US treasuries are still considered a safe asset and how they can benefit from flight to quality flows during times of crisis
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Daniel Ivascyn is the Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO,and a managing director in the Newport Beach office [which office/company? Are we still talking PIMCO?]. He is lead portfolio manager for the firm’s income, credit hedge fund, and mortgage opportunistic strategies, and is also a portfolio manager for total return strategies. He is a member of PIMCO's Executive Committee and a member of the Investment Committee. Morningstar named him Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year (U.S.) for 2013, and he was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame in 2019. Prior to joining PIMCO in 1998, he worked at Bear Stearns in the asset-backed securities group, as well as T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments. He has 33 years of investment experience and holds an MBA in analytic finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in economics from Occidental College.

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The Middle East is home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, religions, and cultures.

At the same time, it is the scene of some of the most pressing geopolitical issues of our time.

The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about the stability of the region and the prospects for peace, and the situation also presents opportunities and challenges for the global economy, particularly the oil markets.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Matthew Gomoll, MBA, CEPA, CEP®️, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Carson Wealth. Matt shares his insights on the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine, including the potential implications for the region and the world. Ryan and Sonu also cover the impact of geopolitics on the stock market, inflation, and the economy, and the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.

They discuss:

• Matt's background as a wealth advisor and former U.S. Army Special Forces officer
• The geographical and historical context of Israel's position in the Middle East and the ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Hamas
• The impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict on the markets
• Historical examples of how stock markets have performed in the aftermath of major geopolitical events
• How the US has become the largest producer of oil and its shift from being a net importer to a net exporter
• The concept of excess savings and its impact on the economy
• The performance of small caps and financials in the first year of a bull market and the potential outlook for 2024
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up now to the 2023 Excell Represent Conference

Connect with Matthew Gomoll:

• LinkedIn: Matthew Gomoll

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Matthew Gomoll has seen firsthand what a difference financial planning can make – not just for your wealth but for your life.

His passion is to truly help clients work towards their goals. Whether that is feeling comfortable to retire, preparing a business to sell, buying that vacation home you’ve always wanted, finally paying off that debt weighing you down, or caring for a loved one in old age, the measure of his success is when you do the things in life that are important to you.

His background as a Special Forces Officer gave me years of experience listening, identifying root issues, and communicating in terms that can be easily understood. Matthew's service has also instilled the values of integrity, duty, loyalty, and quick thinking under fire – skills and values he draws on every day as an advisor.

As a CERTIFIED EXIT PLANNING ADVISOR and CERTIFIED ESTATE PLANNER™, Matthew enjoys leading efforts on your behalf across a team of CPAs, attorneys, bankers, and other professionals to help you make the best decisions possible for your family or your business. He has specific experience in helping business owners grow the value of their business and position it for an eventual transition. Matthew also specializes in working with estate planning attorneys on all of the financial considerations for a family’s estate.

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Investing is a complex and uncertain activity that requires careful analysis, discipline, and patience.

There are many factors that can influence the performance of different investment strategies, such as market conditions and investor preferences.

Today, we speak with a leading figure in the field.

In this special edition of the Facts Vs. Feelings podcast, recorded live at the Excell conference in Nashville, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management.

Together, they chat about investment management, the importance of understanding uncertainty in the market, and the need to learn from past mistakes. They also touch on topics such as market bubbles, momentum strategies, and the parallels between decision-making in sports and investing.

They discuss:

• The challenge of quantifying investment strategies and determining if they align with clients' expectations
• A critical mistake made during the launch of his firm, AQR
• A definition of a bubble and examples of past bubbles in the market
• Cliff’s journey from considering law school to becoming a quantitative finance researcher, highlighting pivotal moments
• The challenges and misconceptions surrounding momentum investing
• Cliff’s research on the optimal time to pull a hockey goalie and how it relates to investment strategies
• The parallels between sports and investing
• And more!

Connect with Cliff Asness:

• LinkedIn: Cliff Asness
• X: Cliff Asness
• Website: AQR Capital Management

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year’s best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers’ Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals.

Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum.

Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in

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Fourth quarters are often crucial times for the economy and the markets as they capture the trends from previous quarters and set the tone for the next year.

However, this year’s fourth quarter may be more uncertain and volatile than usual...

What can investors do to prepare for the potential challenges and opportunities ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese share their expectations for the fourth quarter, including the potential impact of a government shutdown. They also explore the historical performance of the stock market in Q4 and the strength of the dollar.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The impact of a government shutdown on the economy
• An analysis of the historical performance of the fourth quarter
• The strength of the economy and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more than anticipated
• The risk of an energy shock and how it can impact portfolios
• An analysis of the weakness of regional banks and its impact on small caps
• The recent personal consumption expenditures report, core inflation trends, income growth, and consumption levels
• The surprising increase in net wealth among the bottom 50% of income earners over the last three and a half years
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs. Feelings (Ep. 53) - Talking About the Economy with Alejandra Grindal

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Dive deep into the pulse of the economy with top experts!

In this special live edition episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Alejandra Grindal, Chief Economist at Ned Davis Research. Together, they dissect the influence of macroeconomics on investment choices, unravel the pandemic's effect on inflation, consumer confidence, and retail sales, and shed light on the profound influence of the global landscape, especially China, on the US.

They discuss:

• The correlation between the stock market and the economy
• The impact of the pandemic on inflation and whether it will be a long-term or temporary effect
• Reasons behind the low productivity growth and its potential impact on long-term economic growth
• The importance of business investment for productivity
• How consumer indicators can be influenced by political polarization
• The importance of considering multiple indicators before making economic predictions
• The importance of the US economy and the impact of China
• And more!

Resources:

• Website: Ned David Research
• LinkedIn: Ned Davis Research
• X: Ned Davis Research
• YouTube: Ned Davis Research

Connect with Alejandra Grindal:

• LinkedIn: Alejandra Grindal

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Alejandra Grindal is the Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research Group. She is the primary person in charge of the firm’s global economic outlook and is responsible for identifying global economic trends and themes, particularly as they relate to developments in equity, fixed income, commodity, and currency markets. In recent years Alejandra has been particularly focused on global demographics and labor force trends, China’s economic transition, and Japan’s lost decade. She joined Ned Davis Research Group in 2006.

Alejandra is a member of the National Association for Business Economics, where she is co-chair of the International Roundtable. She is a frequent speaker at professional and investment conferences and her work has been cited in the financial media.

Prior to joining Ned Davis Research Group, Alejandra taught Microeconomics and Macroeconomics at Florida State University during her graduate studies and then worked as a full-time professor at Santa Fe College and Edison College. Alejandra also worked in the British Parliament as a research assistant, where she participated in policy and constituent research and campaign marketing.

Alejandra received her Masters degree in Economics and a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics and International Affairs, with summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa distinction, from Florida State University.

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Live from the Excell Conference in Nashville, this week we bring you incredible stories and valuable guests!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Paul Hickey, Co-Founder: Bespoke Investment Group and Bespoke Market Intel, Sam Ro, CFA, Founder of TKer.co, and Frank Cappelleri, Founder and President at CappThesis.

They cover various topics, including the current state of the economy, technical analysis, market trends, inflation, and the impact of higher energy prices on the economy. They also share their experiences running their own companies and the importance of adapting to market feedback.

Together, they discuss:

• The message of the market from a technical point of view, focusing on bullish patterns and low volatility
• The weak consumer sentiment and its correlation with presidential approval ratings and inflation
• The early days of their businesses, including not having basic supplies, going independent, and the importance of listening to the market
• The performance of small caps and the factors affecting their movement
• Details about their companies and how they help investors and advisors
• Whether the economy is in an early cycle or heading towards a recession
• The need to know your time frame when trading and the benefits of being market agnostic
• And more!

Connect with Paul Hickey:

• LinkedIn: Paul Hickey
• Bespoke Investment Group

Connect with Sam Ro:

• LinkedIn: Sam Ro
• TKer by Sam Ro

Connect with Frank Cappelleri:

• LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri
• CappThesis

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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With global markets impacted by various factors, exploring diverse perspectives and ideas is essential for investors.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Carson’s Group Investment Research Team, Barry Gilbert, VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, and Grant Engelbart, VP, Investment Strategist.

They discuss various topics related to investing, including the impact of US-China relations and the importance of considering other factors in portfolio construction. They also talk about the team dynamics at Carson Partners and the importance of being open to new ideas and perspectives in investing. Additionally, they emphasize the integration of investment and wealth management in financial planning and the advantages of working at Carson Partners.

They discuss:

• The impact of China's restrictions on Apple's revenue and the broader implications for US-China relations
• The growth potential of active ETFs and their impact on the market
• The need to be open to new ideas and perspectives in order to understand and navigate the complexities of the market
• The need to consider how different investment components fit together to achieve diversification
• The essential connection between investment and wealth management
• The impact and accessibility of Carson Partners for advisors
• Their investment philosophy and how it has evolved over their career
• The recent disconnect between the US dollar and commodity prices, and the US's energy independence
• And more!

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart:

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Ready for a special episode of Facts Vs. Feelings?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese celebrate their 50th episode of the podcast! They chat about the recent jobs report, highlighting the increase in jobs created and the slight rise in the unemployment rate. They also touch on economic indicators such as yields, wage growth, and the manufacturing sector.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• An analysis of the monthly jobs report, discussing the number of jobs created, unemployment rate, and the health of the labor market
• The slowdown in nominal GDP growth and the misconception of recession
• The growth in manufacturing jobs and the strength of consumption
• The vacancy ratio, its relation to supply and demand for labor, and the Fed's interest in lowering the ratio
• Their key takeaways for reaching 50 episodes
• An explanation of why September is historically the worst month for the stock market
• The historical performance of the stock market in August and the expectation for September
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Navigating the landscape of debt and finance requires an understanding of the myths and truths that shape our perception.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese debunk seven common myths related to debt and finance. They provide insights and analysis on topics such as credit card debt, student loans, bankruptcies, and excess savings. Additionally, they address the topic of rising interest rates and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discusses:

• The concerns and perspective on the $1 trillion credit card debt and its relation to total assets
• The impact of student loan debt payments restarting and the potential effects on consumer spending
• The concept of excess savings during the pandemic and its potential depletion
• The recent decline in stock prices and sales for major retailers
• The increase in interest rates, specifically mortgage rates and credit card rates, and its implications for borrowers and savers
• The composition of US government debt and the ownership of that debt
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Do you feel like we’re in a recession? Well, the facts show us otherwise.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the current state of the economy, focusing on the importance of hard data in understanding economic trends. They discuss the strong economic data and retail sales, highlighting the significant increase in retail sales over the past three months. Ryan and Sonu also touch on how investment spending benefits productivity, the contrasting views between Leading Economic Indicators and consumer opinions, and the relationship between bonds and the stock market’s performance.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Recent strong economic data in retail sales and auto production and why the economy is stronger than we thought
• The positive impact strong industrial production has had on the economy
• Why auto production has been soaring even more than it was pre-pandemic
• The impact investment spending has on productivity
• The contrasting views between the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and other economic indicators, such as PMIs and consumer sentiment
• The relationship between bond yields and stock market performance
• The importance of teaching children about investing and financial literacy
• And more!

Resources:

• Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)
• Sonu’s Daily Note about auto/industrial production?
• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
• Ned Davis Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Macroeconomics is an all-encompassing, complex field, and it's critical to understand each of these large moving parts in order to analyze markets effectively.

With the constantly changing fiscal policies, market indicators, and economic patterns, expert insights prove to be invaluable in guiding us through turbulent and unpredictable times.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Neil Dutta, Managing Director and Head of Economics at Renaissance Macro Research, to chat about macroeconomics and the current state of the economy. They explore topics such as recession risks, the impact of inventories on GDP, fiscal policy, and the limitations of indicators like PMIs.

Neil discusses:

• An overview of his career, his role at Renaissance Macro Research, and the three core macro verticals they cover
• The current state of the economy and the differing opinions on whether a recession is imminent
• How inventory restocking can contribute to economic growth and the potential positive feedback loop it creates
• The role of fiscal policy in shaping economic outlook
• The use of PMIs and other macro indicators in analyzing the market
• The concerns about the Fed prematurely declaring victory and the potential mispricing of the back end of the market
• And more!

Connect with Neil Dutta:

• LinkedIn: Neil Dutta
• Renaissance Macro Research

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

As Head of Economic Research, Neil Dutta leads the macroeconomic research efforts at Renaissance Macro Research, with an emphasis on analyzing the US economy, Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes.

Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada.

Neil appears frequently in the financial press, representing the firm on Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Associated Press, and has been featured in the New York Times for his out-of-consensus economic views on a host of topics including employment, consumption, inflation, and housing.

A business economist with over 15 years of sell-side experience, Neil graduated Cum Laude from New York University with a bachelor’s degree, double majoring in Economics and Political Science.

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One topic that has garnered attention this week is Fitch's decision to cut the US credit rating.

This move has had implications for investments, interest rates, and overall market sentiment.

Want to learn more?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explore the recent downgrade of US debt by Fitch, its implications, and market reaction. Ryan and Sonu also touch on gridlock in Washington, macro policy performance, and the positive outlook on the economy. Additionally, they analyze the current state of the labor market and its impact on the economy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The Fitch downgrade of US debt and the reasons behind it
• The improvement in the debt to GDP ratio and the concerns about governance quality in Washington
• The Fed's credibility and their response to the highest inflation in 40 years
• The factors contributing to the rise in treasury yields and the impact of Fitch downgrading debt
• Various positive economic indicators
• Prime age employment population ratio: What you need to know about the low layoffs rates and strong hiring which indicate a tight labor market
• And more!

Resources:

• Excell Conference

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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After five consecutive months of gains on the S&P, what are the projections for the stock market?

Find out what the economy has been up to this week!

In this episode, Ryan Dietrich and Sonu Varghese chat about the latest economic updates, including the recent GDP report, positive indicators in the economy, the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes, inflation, and the stock market. They highlight the surprising strength of the economy, positive trends in consumer spending and decreasing inflation, and the potential for the stock market to continue rising.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent GDP report, highlighting the better-than-expected growth of 2.4% in the second quarter
• How inflation has decreased and wage growth has come down
• The impressive GDP growth expected in the third quarter
• Positive earnings reports from companies
• The stock market projection for August
• The recent performance and potential upside of energy and industrial stocks
• The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike
• Predictions of no more rate hikes due to expected decrease in core inflation, vehicle prices, and housing rental inflation
• And more!

Resources:

• Facts Vs Feelings Ep. 44 - Talking About the Bull Market with Tom Lee

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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As the financial markets remain on the rise and unpredictable...

It is critical to seek guidance and insights from experts who have a complete understanding of market dynamics which is crucial for investors and enthusiasts alike.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Tom Lee, Managing Partner & Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC. They chat about Tom's perspective on the bull market and how he stays informed about the markets. They also talk about international perspectives, demographics, and credit in market growth. Additionally, they touch on inflation, the Fed's actions, and the importance of mentors.

Tom discusses:

• What he looks at first thing in the morning regarding the markets
• The reasons behind his bullishness at the start of the year
• How regional biases impact market outlooks in Europe, Asia, and Latin America
• His motivation for leaving JP Morgan and starting his own research company
• How demographics and credit play a role in understanding growth and market trends
• The importance of maintaining a sense of humor in the unpredictable market
• The potential trajectory of inflation and the Fed's possible actions in the future
• The influential mentors in his career and the importance of finding a good mentor
• And more!

Resources:

• Sign up here for a 30-day free trial and 10% off a future Fundstrat subscription

Connect with Tom Lee:

• LinkedIn: Tom Lee
• Fundstrat - Website

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998. Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served most recently as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy, and Telecom Services.

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charter holder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

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Navigating investment options can be overwhelming.

That is why the financial world requires careful decision-making, disciplined processes, and diversification.

Today we speak with someone who knows this perfectly.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Investments. Meb talks about investment portfolios, ETFs, and the challenges of money management, highlighting the importance of focusing on the process rather than the glamor of investing. Additionally, Meb gives a valuable message to young people starting in their careers and investing and the importance of diversifying globally.

Meb discusses:

• The difference between managing money and the business of money management
• The criteria for launching new funds and the importance of offering something different in the market
• The significance of incorporating both dividends and net buybacks in evaluating shareholder yield
• An analysis of the current market conditions with a significant spread between cheap and expensive stocks
• His advice to youngsters who want to start in the investment world and have a successful career
• Some of the top investment books, including "The Millionaire Next Door" and "Thinking, Fast and Slow"
• The importance of diversifying asset allocation globally, rather than being concentrated in the US market
• And more!

Resources:

• The Idea Farm
• Meb Faber - Website

Connect with Meb Faber:

• LinkedIn: Meb Faber
• Twitter: Meb Faber
• Cambria Investments

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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As we approach the midpoint of the year, it's crucial to evaluate the current condition of the stock market and the overall economy.

What can we anticipate in the second half of the year?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak about the mid-year outlook for the stock market and the economy. They highlight positive performance and surprises, leading to a bullish outlook. They delve into the labor market, the Federal Reserve's decisions, and concerns like US-China relations and the semiconductor industry.

Sonu & Ryan discuss:

• The unexpected rise and strong performance of the NASDAQ, particularly in May, with mention of NVIDIA's earnings report
• The outlook for stock gains and the potential for reaching all-time highs
• The performance and potential of developed international markets
• The state of the economy and the Federal Reserve's role in avoiding a recession
• Inflation, interest rates, and the Fed's stance on raising rates
• Potential worries that could disrupt the stock market, including the relationship between China and the United States
• The impact of geopolitical risk on inflation and how disruptions can affect the economy
• The stock market forecast for the year and the importance of grounding investment decisions in historical evidence
• And more!

Resources:

• Putting Theory Into Action with Jessica Golson, CIPM (Ep. 41)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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Despite being traditionally male-dominated, the finance industry is undergoing a significant shift as women make remarkable progress and break down barriers.

Today, we speak with a prominent contributor at Carson Group about her experiences in the financial world!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Jessica Golson, Senior Vice President, Investments and Trading at Carson Group. She shares her experiences as a woman in finance and her role overseeing Carson Investment Research's investment and trading teams. Additionally, they explore the evolution of the advisor role, the importance of tax planning, and Carson Group's core values of community.

Jessica discusses:

• Her role in overseeing the investment team, investment platform, and trading team at Carson Investment Research
• A conversation about being a woman in the finance industry
• The changes in advisor roles over the years and how Carson Group supports its partners
• The various aspects of investment beyond portfolio management, including tax planning and funding retirement or education
• The importance of having support and education for advisors in making investment decisions and providing solutions to clients
• The sense of community and collaboration among advisors at Carson Group
• The importance of asking questions and not waiting for a certain role or position to suggest a change in the workplace
• And more!

Connect with Jessica Golson:

• LinkedIn: Jessica Golson

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

About our guest:

Jessica Golson received a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from the University of Nebraska Omaha, where she majored in Finance, Banking, and Investment Science, and minored in Management. In 2012, she received a Masters of Investment Management and Financial Analysis from Creighton University. She currently holds FINRA Series 7 and 66 security licenses.

She brings over 10 years of industry experience striving to help advisors succeed. Since starting in the industry as an advisor she has since held influential roles in Trading, Performance, and Management. In her previous positions, she sought out opportunities for operational efficiencies and acted as a catalyst of change; improving many of the processes and procedures.

Outside of work, Jessica soaks up every second she can with her husband Terrance, and their three amazing children, Wyatt, Jacob, and Adalynn.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Curious about the current state of the stock and housing market and what's coming up for the second half of the year?

Get up to date with the current market updates!

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese explain the difference between hard and soft economic data and why it's important to look at both to get a better understanding of the economy. Ryan and Sonu also touch on the impact of Harry Markowitz on the investment industry, the potential for a strong July rally, and the current state of the housing market.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The difference between soft data and hard data
• Harry Markowitz and his impact on the industry through formalizing diversification and the return versus risk framework
• The possibility of a continuation of the summer rally in the second half of the year, citing historical data and momentum
• The valuations in the S&P500 — with a focus on the tech sector
• The importance of housing in the economy and how it is showing early cycle signals
• How housing has historically led recessions and how it took away from GDP for eight quarters in a row
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Ready for this week's market updates?In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese talk about the recent Fed decision, its impact on the market, and general markets update. They cover inflation, retail sales, and statistics on the housing market. Additionally, they touch on the importance of diversifying your portfolio and being cautious about chasing shiny objects.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The recent Fed decision, projections for the economy, and the impact on the market
• An explanation of core inflation, the impact of energy, food, and vehicles, and the role of housing in the consumer price index
• An analysis of retail sales data, including auto sales and building materials, and its implications for consumer spending
• An explanation of the difference between headline and core inflation and how consumers experience inflation in their daily lives
• The recent positive housing data, including a 22% increase in housing starts in May and a 5% increase in permits data
• The recent strength of the stock market
• The mid-year outlook and potential gains in the stock market for the second half of the year
• The idea of diversifying investments outside the US, including mid and small-cap stocks, and sectors like energy and industrials
• And more!

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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It's impossible to encounter the question, "What did you do today that brought you joy?" without Larry Sprung immediately coming to mind. In the latest episode, hosts Ryan and Sonu engage in a captivating conversation with Larry, delving into topics such as his partnership with Carson, the exciting release of his new book, and a multitude of other fascinating subjects. Larry's presence and his ability to evoke joy are truly unparalleled. The dynamic exchange with him in today's episode reminds us of the power of authentic connection and the happiness it can bring.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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In today's episode, Ryan and Sonu explore stocks, the economy, and the Fed. During the episode, they touch upon the popular TV series Succession, but fret not if you haven't watched it yet! They kindly provide a heads-up, allowing you to skip ahead and avoid any potential spoilers.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Tune in to this episode, live from Carson Group's Partner Summit as Ryan and Sonu engage in an enlightening conversation with Ron Carson. They delve into Ron's background, exploring his journey and beginnings, and provide insights into the current state of affairs. Don't pass up the opportunity to catch this captivating discussion!

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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In this episode, Ryan and Sonu are joined by a familiar guest, Libby Cantrill from PIMCO, to discuss the current state of the debt ceiling and take a brief look at the 2024 election.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Join Ryan and Sonu on stage at Carson Grouo’s Partner Summit where they share their insights on macro, the Fed, the Carson Investment Research Team, and more. You won’t want to miss this special episode!

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Ryan and Sonu discuss the economy in today's episode and address the two most pressing questions they are currently receiving from Carson Partners.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Ryan and Sonu are joined by CFRA's Sam Stovall for a discussion on the current state of the markets. In between sharing market insights, Sam lightens the mood with some of his typical humor.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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On today's episode, Ryan and Sonu talk about how dull things have been in the past week. They also review earnings and some of the projects Sonu has collaborated on with our partners at Wisdom Tree. Additionally, they will touch on the housing market, the economy, and briefly discuss the stock market.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Ryan and Sonu review the positive indicators currently happening in relation to recession discussions, as well as inflation and market sentiment, in today’s episode.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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In today’s episode, Ryan and Sonu return from Spring Break to talk about recent economic data. The focus of the discussion is the positive monthly Jobs Employment Number, and they also delve into some uncommon indicators that suggest the ongoing stock market rally may sustain.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Today, Ryan and Sonu are joined by a very special guest, Sam Ro. Sam shares his insights and experiences from his career so far, and finally puts an end to Ryan's long-awaited question: how do you pronounce TKer? Together, they discuss the latest trends in the industry and share their perspectives on the future of their field. Sam's visit is a valuable opportunity for the hosts and their listeners, as they gain a rare glimpse into the mind of one of the most successful professionals in their industry.

Hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Ryan and Sonu provide their insights on the current banking crisis updates, the significance of gold, and the role of the Federal Reserve and chairwoman Janet Yellen in today's episode.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

Investment advisory services offered through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Partners, a division of CWM, LLC, is a nationwide partnership of advisors.

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Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, and Director of Investment Platform, Sonu Varghese, welcome special guest Professor Jeremy Siegel. He answers several of their burning questions and even shares some insights on March Madness. 

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

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Ryan and Sonu focus on Silicon Valley Bank, what it all means, and how the Fed's aggressive interest-rate-hiking policy collided with a bank's business strategy. Tune in and stay updated! 

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team.

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In today's episode Ryan and Sonu discuss stocks and bonds. They also discuss recent economic data, an update on Jerome Powell and capitol hill, and then wrap up with equity.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

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In todays episode Ryan and Sonu discuss the hot economy since Groundhog Day. They dive into Core PCE Inflation, high yield interest rates and historical market performance of March and April.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

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After seeing the market soar despite a recession, Ed Clissold, an experienced CFA who employs a disciplined, four-bucket approach to investing to train his clients to identify market opportunities and challenge the prevailing wisdom.

You will learn:
1. How has technology changed the stock market over the last decade.
2. What strategies investors can use to manage their emotions and stay disciplined during volatile markets.
3. What insights can be gained by analyzing sentiment indicators in the stock market.

Ed Clissold is a market strategist at Ned Davis Research with over 20 years of experience studying markets. He is a CFA and has a deep understanding of technical analysis and sentiment indicators.

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In this 21st episode of Carson's Facts versus Feelings, Ryan and Sonu dive into Fed Lasagna, an ironic mix of wild market sentiment and conflicting economic data, as they attempt to cut through the noise and focus on what really matters.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

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In this week's episode of 'Facts vs. Feelings,' Ryan and Sonu discuss how the odds of an economic soft landing have significantly increased. They delve into the data and the Federal Reserve's role, and explain why this is not just a temporary bear market recovery.

Hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese, 'Facts vs. Feelings' is brought to you by the Carson Investment Research team

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Today, Ryan and Sonu discuss the strong finish for stocks and bonds in January and follow it up with their expectations for the economy for the rest of the year.

"So goes January, so goes the year." 

Facts vs. Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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Markets and McMuffins, what could be better? In this episode, Ryan and Sonu take the podcast on the road, to Omaha, Nebraska, to be exact, to channel one of the greats... Or at least eat like him. Buffett, Inflation, and automation are just a few topics on the menu. 

Join us to hear what unfolds.

Facts vs. Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In this episode Ryan and Sonu talk about how nothing has been “normal” since the beginning of 2020, and their outlook on the world for 2023. The economy and life is on the edge of normal.

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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There was a lot of pain in the market for 2022, and now a lot of talk about the "impending recession" of 2023. We aren't so sure it will play out that way. 

Join us to hear why.

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In this episode, hosts Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are joined by the CEO of Pearl Institute, Phil Pearlman, whose goal is to help advisors unlock their freedom through health planning and performance training.

Phil is an expert on the connection between health and wealth planning and has been closely involved with the advisor community for many years. Through his advice, Phil encourages advisors to prioritize their health and mental and spiritual well-being and to become role models for their clients.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today's episode, we sit down and talk commodities with Invesco's Commodity Strategist, Kathy Kriskey. So much valuable information crammed into these 30 minutes. Kathy is amazing! 🤯

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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When good news is bad news. This week Ryan and Sonu talk about the latest economic data released and how the Fed might react, the US dollar and why it matters, and some potential positive signs from the market. Oh, and '80s hair bands, of course! 🤘🎸

Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we give our takes on some well know things happening in the investment world. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we sit down with Author Jamie Hopkins to discuss his new book Find Your Freedom: Financial Planning for a Life on Purpose. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we cover the rise in stocks, crypto, inflation, and what the FED is up to. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we talk about some things that have been surprising in the market this year, what could happen after the midterm elections, and the FED’s recent increase in interest rates. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, Libby Cantrill joins us to talk about the upcoming elections and the impact they could have for the investor. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we touch on the hard and soft data available today from the fed as well earning season so far. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we look at what is scaring the investors in relation to the market, the CPI, and what Jamie Dimon is predicting. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we look at the recent release of the employment number and what that means for the economy and the investor. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we look and the ugly, the bad, and the good of what is happening in the financial world. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research team.

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, we discuss the Fed, the economy, and the situation in the UK. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Research Investment team. 

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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In today’s episode, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri joins to discuss inflation and what that means for the investor. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Derrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Research Investment team. 

You can find other information at CarsonGroup.com.

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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.

You can find more information at CarsonGroup.com.

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