The Weekly Insight: Recent Episodes
Andrew Dorr
The Weekly Insight Podcast brings you weekly information about what you need to know about what is going on in the market every week.
A client of ours spent $80,000 to teach his family how money works.
He'd built something over 30+ years. What kept him up wasn't whether his kids would inherit it. It was whether they'd know what to do with it when they did.
So, three years ago he opened eight accounts — two kids, their spouses, four nephews — and put $10,000 in each.
The rules were simple. Three years. Whatever you make is yours. I'll pay the taxes. Top three get prizes.
They met regularly. They argued about strategy. They asked us hard questions about the economy and had to defend their answers to each other.
Saturday the clock ran out. The top two finished less than $100 apart.
Every one of them made money. That wasn't the point.
The point was sitting in that final meeting listening to eight people in their late 20s and 30s discuss markets like people who'd been paying attention for three years — because they had.
Here's the thing most families get backwards. They spend enormous energy choosing the right account and almost none on the conversation the account is supposed to start. The vehicle is downstream of the conversation. Always.
That said, the vehicles matter, and one of them is brand new.
We ran the numbers on 530A accounts — the "Trump Accounts" that launched last month. Same $50,000 in contributions. Same 7% return. Started ten years earlier than a typical Roth, because these don't require the child to have earned income.
$903,545 versus $1,777,410.
Nothing changed except when the clock started.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-raising-investors/
Alphabet had a tremendous quarter on Wednesday.
The market took $299 billion from them anyway.
By Thursday's close, the Magnificent Seven had lost $895 billion in a single day. Not the market — those seven companies.
Two weeks ago we wrote that raised expectations made this earnings season dangerous. We were right about the asymmetry. We were wrong about the mechanism, and the mechanism is the story:
→ The market has stopped grading what these companies earn
→ It has started grading when investors get paid back
→ Alphabet says 2027. Amazon says 2027–2028. Tesla says two or three more years. OpenAI isn't expected to turn a profit until 2030
→ Meanwhile the 2-year Treasury is up 78 basis points in nine months
Every one of those bets got more expensive to wait for.
This week decides whether it holds. Wednesday: the Fed at 1:00 CDT, Warsh at 1:30, then Microsoft and Meta after the close. Thursday: Apple and Amazon. These four are 53.6% of the Magnificent Seven by market cap.
And Apple is the interesting one. It’s the only member of the Seven that didn't make the infrastructure bet, and the only one the market has rewarded.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-wearing-thin/
Six politicians. Two parties. Twenty years. The exact same promise: "I will not touch your Social Security."
Every one of them was making a promise the math couldn't keep.
In 2005, the last president who tried to actually fix Social Security got crucified for it. Washington learned the lesson: never touch the third rail. So, for two decades, both parties competed to promise they'd protect it while the problem quietly compounded.
This June's Trustees report: the retirement trust fund is empty by 2032, triggering an automatic 22% benefit cut.
Here's the part no one is talking about: Social Security isn't the disease. It's the first symptom you can put a date on. The same math driving the 2032 cliff is pushing federal debt past its World War II record and turning interest payments into the single largest line item in the entire federal budget by 2047.
"Washington will fix it in time" isn't a plan. It's hope. And hope isn't a strategy for your retirement.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-lie-we-all-agreed-to/
Nearly every quarter, Wall Street lowers the bar right before earnings season.
It's not a conspiracy — it's self-preservation. An analyst who calls 2% growth and sees 3% looks smart. Call 3% and get 2%, and you were wrong. So estimates drift down, companies "beat," and everyone celebrates.
This quarter, the opposite happened. Analysts raised earnings expectations by 3.4%, just the 10th time in the last 34 quarters they've moved the bar up instead of down.
Here's why that matters: when the bar goes up, the good news is already priced in. The reward for clearing it shrinks, and the cost of missing it climbs. Last quarter, companies that missed got punished nearly twice as hard as the five-year norm.
Optimism, it turns out, can be its own kind of risk.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-when-optimism-becomes-a-risk/
The Magnificent 7 are down over 10% since October 29th. The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are up nearly 15%. That's a 25-point gap. And almost no one is talking about it.
This week's Weekly Insight breaks down the eight-month rotation that's reshaping portfolios:
→ Why "Technology" leading the sector charts isn't the Mag 7 comeback it looks like
→ The Q1 earnings number that looked like 52% growth, but wasn't
→ What a 33x vs. 20x P/E comparison tells you about where the value actually is
We called this in February. The data says there's runway left.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-great-rebalancing-part-ii/
The Fed spent the better part of a decade talking too much.
On Wednesday, Kevin Warsh signaled that era is over.
His first press conference as Fed Chairman didn't just announce a rate hold. It announced a philosophy — one that's fundamentally different from anything we've seen in the Powell era:
- Forward guidance: gone
- Warsh's own dot plot projection: withheld entirely
- Five task forces launched to rebuild the Fed from first principles
The market sold off. That's not surprising — markets have been conditioned to feed off Fed language. Warsh just said the feeding stops.
Four years ago we wrote a memo called "The Circular Sentiment Firing Squad." The argument: the Fed was watching the market, the market was watching the Fed, and nobody was actually leading.
Warsh said almost exactly the same thing from the podium Wednesday:
"Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, then we're taking the most important source of information and being blind to it."
That's the whole problem. In one sentence.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-warsh-standard/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-235-billion-has-to-come-from-somewhere/
Three months ago we published a memo called "The Chokepoint" — written the morning the U.S. started bombing Iran. We laid out exactly what a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would do to oil prices, inflation, and global GDP.
This week we went back and checked our work.
The market has hit all-time highs. Brent crude pulled back from $138. The ceasefire has been enough — for now.
But the Strait is still effectively closed. The economic impacts we projected are materializing. And the buffers keeping the worst-case scenario at bay are getting thinner.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-chokepoint-revisited/
Everyone wants SpaceX shares. The phones haven't stopped.
So, we did what we always do: we looked at the data first.
What is SpaceX actually selling? Three businesses. One is wildly profitable. One is losing money. One is a $6.4 billion annual cash furnace that every major AI company is running right now. The $1.75 trillion price tag wraps all three together and asks you to believe in a future that doesn't fully exist (yet).
We also dug into what IPO history actually tells us. Dr. Jay Ritter at the University of Florida has tracked IPO performance for decades. The pattern is remarkably consistent: big pop on Day 1, meaningful underperformance for the next three years. Cerebras went public two weeks ago at $185, opened at $350, and is already trading at $233. The largest IPO in history will not be immune to that dynamic.
And then there's the macro question nobody's fully answering: three IPOs — SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic — targeting nearly $200 billion in combined raises over the next five months. The entire U.S. IPO market raised $45 billion in all of 2025. That money has to come from somewhere.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-spacex-ipo-go-no-go/
Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest reading since 1952. The lowest in history.
At the same time, Redbook same-store sales just spiked to 9.6% — one of the strongest retail readings in years.
Both of those things are true simultaneously. And that gap is exactly where the most important question in the market lives right now.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-space-in-the-middle/
Most families spend years worrying about the estate tax.
Here's the reality: fewer than 2,000 deaths will trigger a federal estate tax payment this year. That’s 0.07% of all estates.
The tax your heirs will actually pay isn't in the estate code. It's sitting inside your IRA. And there's a limited window — retirement to age 73 — to do something about it.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-avoiding-the-hidden-inheritance-tax/
Two politicians. Same day. Completely opposite claims about what gas prices are doing to American households.
Rep. Ro Khanna: $5,000 per household.
Treasury Secretary Bessent: "All cylinders are firing. Gas prices are coming down."
Both are wrong.
So, this week we did the actual math.
The real number is approximately $1,400 per year — or $117 a month — for the average household. That's the direct pump cost plus the hidden pass-through costs most people never connect to gas: freight, packaging, petrochemicals, home energy. Costs that show up weeks later as a 3-cent increase on a box of cereal or a slightly higher utility bill. And — critically — costs that don't reverse as quickly as the pump price when gas eventually falls.
But the more important number is what $1,400 means when you put it next to what wages have actually done.
Nominal wages are up 3.5%. Inflation is running at 3.3%. That leaves the median household with roughly a $245 real raise this year. When the energy burden gets added, real purchasing power turns negative for the first time since 2022 — across every income quartile, just at very different magnitudes.
And that's before we get to what falling real wages have historically meant for the economy. Or why the market's current position near all-time highs is worth thinking about carefully.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-math-problem-what-do-rising-gas-prices-really-mean/
John Maynard Keynes may be the most influential economist who ever lived.
He was right about Versailles. Right about the Depression. He redesigned the global financial system at Bretton Woods.
He also lost his entire fortune in the market.
His lesson: it doesn't matter how right you are. If the market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent, you lose.
LTCM had two Nobel laureates. Lost 90% of investor capital in four months — being right.
Julian Robertson closed his fund on the exact day the Nasdaq peaked — being right.
George Soros — greatest macro trader of the 20th century — bought at the top — after being right for too long.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-being-right-isnt-enough/
Nine trading days.
That's how long it took the S&P 500 to recover every point it lost since the Iran war began.
The COVID crash — which was considered one of the fastest recoveries in market history — took 104 trading days. Twelve times longer.
The market's message is clear: this conflict is a disruption, not a recession. Recession odds in prediction markets never came close to what we saw during last year's trade war or the government shutdown.
We agree — mostly.
Here's what the market isn't pricing: the Strait of Hormuz can reopen Wednesday and 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity still takes five years to repair. Half of Iraq's oil production could restart within days. Kuwait's refineries could take months. Those are very different timelines — and only one of them is in the price.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-market-moved-on-the-strait-didnt/
A significant amount of Qatar's LNG just went offline for 3-5 years.
Canadian LNG just came online.
The market hasn't connected those dots yet — but it will.
That's one of three opportunities we're building toward in this week's memo. The others: Emerging Markets, where a war-driven selloff has created a 6.6 percentage point gap vs. the S&P 500. And small caps — but not the index everyone uses.
The war dominates the headlines. The next big things are hiding just underneath them.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-next-big-things/
Five Trump announcements about the Iran war. Five market rallies. Every single one fully reversed within a week.
By Friday, the market didn't even bother with a rally.
That's the story of the last month. The market’s been trading the rhetoric, not the facts on the ground. But Friday, the market has stopped buying it.
But here's what matters more: we've seen this movie before.
Almost exactly six years ago, we were holding an energy MLP fund that was down more than 70% while the S&P was down 34%. Everyone told us we were wrong. We held. We bought more. Our clients stayed the course.
From that COVID low through today, that position has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 85%.
The Iran war is not COVID. But the behavioral finance lesson is identical. Fear is loudest exactly when patience pays the most.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-weve-been-here-before/
Part of the problem with drafting these memos is the news can change quickly.
When we wrote this on Sunday night, we noted: “If the deadline passes without significant escalation, it may end proving Trump’s Friday missive. It may be the biggest offramp yet.”
Monday morning — somebody blinked.
Trump announced "very good and productive conversations" with Iran and postponed all strikes on Iranian power plants for five days.
Iran denied the negotiations. Then their state TV declared victory.
The market read right through it. Equities: up sharply. Oil: down sharply.
Three weeks ago, Goldman said buy the dip. Last week, Goldman said oil above $100 through 2027. This morning, the market is pricing something different.
We don't know how this ends. But we knew what to watch — and one of those signals fired today.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-nobody-knows-but-somebody-blinked/
The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo removed 7% of the world's oil supply. It gave us gas lines, 11% inflation, and interest rates that eventually hit 20%. It defined a decade.
The Strait of Hormuz closure is removing 20%.
And yet — Wall Street's earnings estimates for 2026 have not moved one inch since the war began. The S&P is down 3.6%.
That gap is about to close. Q1 earnings season starts in three weeks. That's when CFOs stop speculating and start putting real numbers on a world that changed February 28.
Airlines that modeled $88/barrel oil. Trucking companies eating a 36% diesel spike. Retailers watching consumer confidence collapse as gas prices jump 69 cents in two weeks.
The market is betting on a swift resolution. Maybe it's right. But hope isn't a forecast — and earnings season doesn't care about hope.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cant-hide-from-earnings-season/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-old-playbook-doesnt-apply/
The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide.
20% of the world's oil flows through it every day. As of Saturday, it's effectively closed.
We've been warning about this exact scenario since April 2024. Now it's here.
In this week's memo, we break down:
→ Why the U.S. Navy can control the Strait but can't make shippers transit it
→ Why pipeline alternatives only solve 13% of the problem
→ The natural gas crisis no one is talking about (Qatar's LNG has NO alternative route)
→ What $125/bbl oil means for GDP and inflation
→ How we've positioned portfolios for exactly this kind of disruption
The situation is developing fast. What comes next matters more than what happened Saturday.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-chokepoint/
Is AI going to end the world? Destroy every software company? Bankrupt the biggest tech companies on earth?
If you've watched the news lately, you'd think the answer to all three is yes.
Here's the problem: the math doesn't work. You can't be right about all of them at once.
This week we go all the way back to the Luddites — 19th century textile workers who literally smashed machines trying to stop the future — to explain why this moment feels scarier than it is, and what history actually tells us about how technological revolutions end.
Spoiler: it's not the way the headlines suggest.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-from-luddites-to-language-models-why-the-world-isnt-ending/
Markets have been pricing in a weaker dollar for months. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin all jumped in value. And traders were expecting a Fed chair announcement that would continue that theme. Instead, they got Kevin Warsh – a hawk whose resume screams “strong dollar”.
The result? More than $8 trillion in paper wealth vaporized as gold, silver and Bitcoin all retreated. But the issues that caused the price spike haven’t gone away.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-dollar-trilemma-and-why-precious-metals-just-tanked/
Great earnings aren’t enough anymore. The market is telling us something – and it’s been saying it for 90 days.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-great-rebalancing/
We had a wild start to the market last week. Markets fell. Headlines screamed. Fear spiked. But by week’s end, nothing had actually changed. It seems like that same cycle is happening more frequently. And it turns out, there is some ancient wisdom that can help us manage it.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-financial-stoicism/
The market is obsessed with AI. But nobody is asking the right question: why is AI worth trillions of dollars? What problem is it solving? This week, we dive into the biggest structural shift in the global economy that no one is discussing – and the investment opportunities it will create.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-biggest-thing-nobody-is-talking-about/
As we dive into the new year, markets have continued their solid pace. But there is plenty of international intrigue that has reminded investors of the importance – and drama! – in fossil fuels.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-oil-still-matters/
As we wrap up the year, it would be easy to just say, “It was a great year in the markets! See you in 2026!” But as we prepared the year-end Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we thought it would be a good time to focus on the lessons we learned this year. And, more importantly, how they might apply to future years that might not be so wonderful.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-2025-lessons-learned/
Barring a complete collapse in the next nine days, 2025 will mark just the sixth time in history that we’ve seen double digit returns in the S&P 500 for three consecutive years. Four years in a row is even more rare (it’s happened three times). And yet, as we told you last week, market prognosticators are expecting another double digit year in the market in 2026.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-can-2026-continue-the-trend/
It was a frigid weekend in Iowa. Which may be why an article we read about the “Windchill Economy” caught our attention. But the facts of the article – that how people feel about the economy today is much different than how it’s actually working – got us thinking. How predictive is the consumer's feelings about the economy? And how does it differ from what Wall Street is saying?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wind-chill/
We spend a lot of time talking about equities in this business. But not nearly enough time is devoted to the bond market. Interestingly, it’s the larger of the two markets. And it is a great “canary in the coal mine” about where the market thinks the economy is heading.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-eyes-on-the-bond-market/
The holidays are upon us! And with that comes a race to the end of the year. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we’re taking a break from the market commentary and instead looking at some good year-end planning tools that you may find beneficial.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-feeling-charitable/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-age-old-investment-advice/
We spend a lot of time talking about how companies are doing in this economy. And as Q3 earnings reports are wrapping up, the answer is “quite well!”. But there is a whole other side to the economy that matters even more: the consumer.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-two-economies/
Most people in the world are “headline readers”. There’s simply not enough time in a reader’s day to get past the headline and do the research. Which is why the headline we saw on Friday (“Stocks Worst November Since ‘08”) was enough to raise some hackles. Anytime someone draws a direct correlation between the current environment and 2008 it causes a visceral reaction amongst investors (and in our office!). But a little homework goes a long way.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-going-on/
The market news last week was enough to give you whiplash. The Fed cut rates (Yay!). Powell intimated no more cuts in December (Boo!). Tech earnings were solid (Yay!). Some tech companies were punished for their AI spend (Boo!). But what does this all mean for the market in the weeks and months to come?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-signals-tech-turbulence/
It’s Fed Week again. And by every measure, it seems certain we’re going to get another rate cut. But what should we make about the market’s certainty (100%!) that rate cuts will continue in December and into 2026?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-certainty/
Over the last several weeks, there has been a proliferation of articles and commentators questioning the extremely large capital expenditures of AI firms as they ramp up their capacity. It’s a saying as old as time: you have to spend money to make money. But how much patience will investors have as the large AI firms spend hundreds of billions to build out their AI capacity.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-investment-risk-in-ai/
It’s shutdown time in Washington, D.C. again. It’s always a dramatic time in the news. But is it something that should concern us as it relates to portfolios?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-shut-it-down/
The four most dangerous words in the world of finance are, “This time it’s different.” We’ve heard it time and again. And time and again it’s not true. So when we start hearing that higher P/E ratios for the market are the “new normal”, we’re understandably skeptical. But we can’t just ignore the data behind it.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-this-time-its-different/
We know we’re not breaking any news when we tell you Chairman Powell and the Fed cut rates last week. The long-anticipated cut was received very well by markets which closed the week at all-time highs on Friday. It’s the next logical leap the market has taken – that this is the start of a prolonged period of rate cuts – which may be a bit farfetched.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-dont-get-too-excited/
The Fed is meeting this week and expected to cut rates. In the media’s calculus this should be good for markets. But it wasn’t particularly good the last time they cut rates. So what happens if the market pulls back?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-two-types-of-corrections/
The markets brought us a little bit of everything last week, but ended on a positive note. As fast as the news cycle moves, it seems most had forgotten by Tuesday that there was a very big court decision on tariffs the previous Friday. This week, we take a dive into that ruling to see what we can learn about the future of trade policy and how it may impact markets.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-court-battle-over-tariffs/
Jerome Powell’s annual address in Jackson Hole has become must-see TV for market watchers in recent years. In 2022, he used it to sternly put the market back in its place on rate expectations. Since then, it has been looked upon with a mix of optimism and trepidation. His last Jackson Hole speech – last Friday – was no different. But this isn’t 2022. Instead, he presented a cautiously dovish case.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-powells-predicament/
The big news in the markets last week was the CPI data. It was a bit of a mixed report. If you were looking for good news, it was there. The same goes for bad news. But the report we found more interesting last week was that of CPI’s long lost cousin: PPI.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cpis-oft-forgotten-cousin/
As the financial world obsesses about tariffs, we got to thinking about who these tariffs might impact: consumers. As regular readers of our memos know, the U.S. consumer is a powerful economic force. Consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of GDP. So as tariffs begin to be implemented, how well is the U.S. consumer prepared?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-state-of-the-consumer/
The story of 2025 has been tariffs. And yet, despite a significant market correction in April, markets have recovered nicely. But the tariff discussion isn’t over yet. They are happening. And there is no question they will have some level of impact on the economy.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-impact-of-tariffs/
In politics, they frequently refer to the 24-hour news cycle. The flood of information it creates presents opportunities – and hazards – for candidates. The same cycle exists for the market. And right now, we’re in the midst of a nice swell of “good news”. But what could be the catalyst to change that?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-24-hour-market-cycle/
The White House came out firing on tariffs last week. New tariffs were announced for the E.U., Mexico, Canada and a number of other countries. But the response from Wall Street was very different from the last time we did this. Instead of the pullback we saw on Liberation Day, markets were largely flat for the week. So what gives? Why the different response? And what does this mean for your portfolio?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-different-about-tariffs-today/
While the Nation was celebrating our 249th birthday over the weekend, Republicans in Congress were busy passing President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”. It is, as the name implies, BIG! At 897 pages, we haven’t read it all (yet). But we did dive into it over the weekend to better understand the big issues that will impact you.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-one-big-beautiful-podcast/
Well, that wasn’t the week anyone expected, was it? The U.S. bombs Iran and oil prices…go down? It’s a good reminder that there is no crystal ball to predict the market’s future. But there are some things we can bet on that have staying power. And one is the strength of the United States economy. In this edition of the Weekly Insight, we look back at Warren Buffett’s comments from a few years ago about his unwavering conclusion: “Never bet against the America”. That’s not some nationalistic propaganda – there is good economic data to back his approach.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-enduring-strength-of-america/
The weekend was full of geopolitical drama. As you likely know by now, the United States struck Iran in an effort to eliminate their nuclear program. That leaves two important questions: What does this mean for the economy and markets? How are portfolios at Insight positioned for any potential troubles?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-1973-redux/
All you have to do today is turn on a TV, or open a website, or listen to a podcast and you will be flooded with folks absolutely certain about their latest read on the market and the economy. Inflation is coming! The market is crashing! You know what we’re talking about. But the problem is the study of economics never offers those certainties – even if they play well in our hot take society.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-one-handed-economists/
This is a weird time for markets. To some degree, it seems like there is so much going on. The volume is cranked to a 10. One needs only look at last week’s spat between two very powerful men which lead the market to be off by nearly 1% in a day. But do those moments really matter? We’d argue they don’t in the long run. But we’re going to have to be patient for the big items that are going to move the market.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-waiting-game/
As May wrapped up last week, the financial world was touting the month as the best performing May since 1990. That’s great news! But it’s also an artifact of timing. If you stretch the window you’re measuring out to the beginning of the year, things don’t look as good. The market is essentially flat. But we take a longer view on portfolio health than a week, a month, or a year. We’re working to build successful investment strategies for the long haul. Which is why we made some fairly significant changes in two of our strategies last week.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-timing-isnt-everything/
Last week started with the big news that the U.S. and China had agreed to a temporary reduction in tariffs. The market rallied and ended the week up more than 5%. But, as much as the market would love to assume we can move on to the next conversation, there is much yet to be determined regarding trade policy.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-far-from-completed-agreements/
Last week was Fed week which is always must-see TV at Insight (whether we like it or not). Unlike the last few years, this meeting was largely without market drama. But it did leave us with some interesting tidbits to understand the interplay between the Fed – holding dry powder for a potential recession – and the ongoing discussion on tariffs. What did we learn? The Fed still thinks the economy is “solid”, but they’re also seriously worried about “uncertainty” on the policy front. What does that mean for rates and the market going forward?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-feds-dry-powder/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-choose-your-own-economy/
The volume today around the markets and the state of the world is at a “10”. You can go to any news source you want and you’ll find some version of “The sky is falling!” or “The world is ending!” sentiment. But here’s the thing: the world hasn’t ended yet and – as pointed out by famed investor Howard Marks – the planning necessary to avoid the pain when the world ends is 1) impossible; and 2) would be catastrophic to a portfolio if the world doesn’t end.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-most-of-the-time-the-world-doesnt-end/
If you’ve been paying attention to our commentary over the years, you know we believe strongly that there are some “big things” in the world that must be understood to be a successful investor.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-three-big-things-tariffs/
We all survived yet another week of wild swings in the market. Today (so far!), they’re the good kind. Last week, it was a bit of both. And while we could continue to retread the ground covered in-depth on tariff policy, we thought we’d go a different direction. This week we wanted to dive into the psychology of the markets – specifically the psychology of loss – and address why you’re not well suited for it. None of us are.
But with the right information, we can start to understand why our genetic makeup is battling against the best decisions you can make for your portfolio. And hopefully it can help alleviate a bit of the stress of moments like these.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-survival-of-the-fittest/
The topic of these week’s memo and podcast won’t surprise you: tariffs. And it would probably be good business to tell you we have all the answers for what the market is going to do in response over the coming weeks. The truth is this: no one has those answers. But we do know how we need to respond, because history has taught us this lesson before.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fortitude/
The market is awaiting President Trump’s “Liberation Day” decisions on tariffs this week. But to assume this is the end of the discussion – or the end of the volatility – is likely folly.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-liberation-day/
Transitory. Powell uttered that word again. The last time he did so, it didn’t work out too well. But while tariff driven inflation is not yet a thing, we do know one thing that’s transitory: market downturns. Which is why we made some changes in our portfolios last week.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-transitory/
Is a recession coming? Are we already in one? And what does that mean for portfolios? The answers to some of these questions (especially the last one) are likely going to surprise you.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-does-a-recession-mean-for-the-market/
The drama around the market (and pretty much everything else these days…) seems to be ramped up to a 10. We had a good inflation report? Yay! A bad GDP report? The world is ending! Maybe, just maybe, everything doesn’t need to be so…dramatic.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-drama/
Five years ago today, we wrote our first “Weekly Insight Memo” in response to the onset of COVID. It’s funny looking back on it how little we all knew about what was about to happen. But in re-reading that memo, there are some important parallels to what’s happening in the market today. And what might move markets for the rest of the year.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-5-years-later/
The world shouldn’t have been surprised when the Trump Administration announced sweeping tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. But it sure caught the market off-guard. As did the quick reversal of those tariffs. But as much as the market’s reaction matters to your portfolio, we saw some interesting consumer reactions late last week that are worth watching closely.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-trade-war/
Financial markets can be humbling. And they can make you pay for hubris. Tech investors found that out the hard way last week with the release of DeepSeek’s new AI tool. In this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast we take a look at the changing landscape in AI and what a new Chinese competitor means for the stock market.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-hubris/
The market has been focused on the (quite significant) action coming out of the Trump Administration over the last week. And so far, it has liked what it’s seen. Markets had their best first week of a new Administration since January 1985. But this week, we’re going to get a dose of reality. A huge week in earnings, combined with the first Fed meeting of 2025 will force the market to refocus on fundamentals.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-powell-effect-vs-the-trump-effect/
It’s Inauguration Day. A time that is a celebration of our democratic republic. But also a time of uncertainty as we look to the future. Markets – as we’ve frequently said – hate uncertainty.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-first-100-days/
Nearly five years ago, we sent our first “Weekly Insight” to provide clients with information about the early stages of the COVID pandemic. The key lesson from that time was that – while we certainly didn’t get everything right – the patience our clients had during the pandemic was key to portfolio success. While certainly not on the same scale, we’re entering another one of those “patience” moments in the market as investors adjust to changes in expectations around inflation and interest rates.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience/
The holidays are over. The end of the year wrap-ups and 2025 look ahead articles have been written. Now it's time to get on to the work of 2025.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-the-shift-coming-in-2025/
The last Fed meeting of the year was last week. And the results were…interesting. We got exactly what everyone expected and… the market hated it. Why? To paraphrase the poet/philosopher Britney Spears: Oops…Powell did it again!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-oops-he-did-it-again/
As we near the end of the year, this week will see the last “big” economic news: the Fed’s final meeting of 2024 and the subsequent release of their year-end Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This SEP – and Powell’s subsequent comments – are going to go a long way for setting the tone for the economy as we enter 2025.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-powell-bringing-presents/
We’ve heard of some crazy metrics in the market before. There are traders and analysts everywhere who will try to tell you that the market’s success or failure is tied to some obscure metric. The truth is, they can show you example after example of when X happened, Y happened. But there is a big difference between there being a correlation between those two events and X causing Y to happen. And that brings us to today’s topic: the McRib. Did you know its release is a strong indicator of stock market success? 😊 Sort of. It’s also a really interesting story.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-correlation-and-causation-mcrib-style/
As we enter the final stretch of 2024, we begin to hear from the great prognosticators their predictions for how next year is going to play out in the markets. As these reports start to roll in, we thought we’d look at how well the experts predicted 2024 market outcomes. We think you’ll find the results interesting. And we hope they will color your view of the next round crystal ball polishing we’re about to see.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-dont-trust-the-crystal-ball/
Readers of our commentary have known for a long time where we stand on the Federal debt. The rapidly growing problem has long-term consequences which will eventually be borne by all of us. And there has been little effort by either party to enact meaningful solutions. But now an unlikely pair of fiscal hawks – Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy – have been tasked by President-elect Trump with fixing the problem. Is it fixable? And will their proposed solutions work?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-can-they-doge-it/
In the last edition of the Weekly Insight, we suggested that the market might be venturing into an “overbought” position and suggested it may need a bit of a breather before it made another step forward. We got just that last week as the market focus shifted from the election back to the topics that have been moving markets for the last few years: the Fed, interest rates, and inflation.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-shifting-expectations/
Well, the election is behind us. Some Americans are very happy. Some are very unhappy. But, no matter what, the economy keeps moving and we need to keep moving with it.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-post-election-priorities/
Tomorrow is a big day. And for many of us, it seems like the finish line for a long and grueling process. Sadly, when it comes to politics, there is no finish line. There will be more contentious issues to tackle after the election is done. And the same goes for the market and the economy. The FOMC is going to remind us of that later this week when they meet on Thursday to make their next interest rate decision.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-finish-line/
We’re almost there. Just eight days to go until we can put this election behind us. But we also have to remember that elections matter in portfolios. This week, we look at one of the big areas where we might see immediate impacts to the market following the election: tax policy. The shape of this election will impact what happens to the soon-to-expire Tax Cut and Jobs Act from 2017.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-positioning-for-the-post-election-world/
You’d be forgiven for thinking the only thing happening in the world today is the Presidential election coming up in just over two weeks. It seems that’s all any pundit is talking about. But the truth is, there is a lot happening impacting financial markets that has absolutely nothing to do with who gets sworn into office on January 20, 2025.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-theres-more-than-an-election/
As they say, the only thing constant in the world is change. And we’re seeing an interesting change in how the market perceives economic news. You’ll recall many conversations in the pages of the Weekly Insight over the last few years about how “good news” was bad for the market as we battled inflation. That may not be true anymore.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-is-good-news-good-news-again/
The world sure seems full of worry today, doesn’t it? It doesn’t help that we have two Presidential candidates fear mongering for votes. But there are things we should worry about in portfolios and things that really don’t move the needle. One that deserves our attention right now is the situation in the Middle East and the potential for a disruption in oil supplies.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-28-miles-of-angst/
It finally happened! The Fed cut rates last week. And not just a 0.25% cut. We got the full 0.50%, which was larger than many anticipated. That brings up many questions, but the biggest is the simplest: what if they’re wrong? What if the Fed has misjudged this moment? What would it mean for the economy and for portfolios?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-if-theyre-wrong/
As we head into Fed Week (a very important Fed Week!), we thought it might be a good time to step back and look at the economy as a whole. We’re in an interesting moment. Economic growth continues to excel at a time when citizens of our country overwhelmingly say the economy is not succeeding. Where is the disconnect? And what does it mean for the future?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-k-shaped-recovery/
Did you feel that? That was the market’s worst week in 2024. Down 4.22% in a week. Well worse than we saw even at the beginning of August.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-worst-week-ever/
The market’s recovery last week continued and – with the exception of Big Tech – has left us back where we started before the downturn started in July. That move was further spurred by Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on Friday where he basically announced rate cuts are coming in September. That’s all good news, but how does this change our outlook on risk in portfolios?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-one-down-two-to-go/
We’ve all done it before: get so sucked into an idea that we miss the big picture. It happens in the markets time and again. Author and expert in behavioral investing Daniel Crosby has a term for it: Overprecision. He defines it as “excessive certainty in the precision of private beliefs”.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-overprecision/
At the beginning of last week it seemed panic was starting to settle into the market. The momentum created by the “bad” jobs report on August 2nd fed into a historically bad day in the Nikkei which lead into Monday’s open. The rout was on…until it wasn’t.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-panic-that-wasnt/
What a morning it’s been for the markets! Volatility has spiked and the Dow plummeted nearly 1,000 points at the open this morning.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-why-all-the-volatility/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cuts-are-coming-now-what/
Well, where do we start this week? There’s earnings season. Or the rotation from mega cap tech stocks to the rest of the market. Or the sitting President who just dropped out of the race 107 days before Election Day. Or how about the greatest IT failure in the history of…well…computers.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-crowd-struck/
Where do we even start? Love Trump or hate him, there’s no denying we just experienced a dark weekend in American history. There is no place in a democracy for these kinds of disgusting acts. But as crass as it may seem, you come to us to understand how events will impact your portfolio.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-panic-or-certainty/
It isn’t often we get politicians from the left and the right uniting on an important issue. But it’s happening right now. Leading Democrats and Republicans – including both Presidential candidates – are committing to no changes in the Social Security and Medicare system. The only problem is…the math.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-math-doesnt-lie/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-messy-presidential-election/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-the-deal-with-nvidia/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-they-dont-believe-you/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-this-little-kitty-roars/
It’s been a tremendously good start to the year in markets. But with the Fed hitting the delay button and the election season upon us, the potential for volatility is rising. This week we made some significant changes in our portfolio strategies to address these concerns.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-it-could-be-an-interesting-summer/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-taking-some-winnings/
As of this morning, the S&P 500 is just 40 points off its all-time high. It’s been a remarkably good run since the market bottomed in September of 2022. But upside is an easy conversation. Negative returns – and the exponential benefit of avoiding them – is a much harder conversation.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-importance-of-negative-returns/
It’s going to be a busy week in the market. Normally that crops up when we have a Fed meeting – as we do on Wednesday. But this Fed meeting is likely to be…uneventful. Everyone already knows they’re not cutting rates. Instead, the excitement this week comes from 175 companies – fully 35% - of the S&P 500 reporting earnings. And if the trend from previous weeks continues, that should be very good for the market.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-busy-busy-week/
In last week’s edition of the Weekly Insight, we encouraged you to buck the trend and take a “deep breath” as the market experienced a bit of volatility. We’re still strongly in that camp – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking out into the future and assessing the risks over the horizon.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-next-recession/
The start of April hasn’t been fun (which seems like a silly thing to write on Tax Day…is it ever fun?). More stress about inflation. War clouds looming in the Middle East. This is one of those moments when things in the market can start to feel scary. But just how bad has it been? And what kind of impact are these issues starting to have on the market?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-deep-breaths/
The market had one of its worst weeks of the year last week. And the why was familiar – even if it was something we were hoping to have behind us. The economic news we received was just a bit too good for investors liking. PMI data, GDP expectations, and jobs data all combined to raise concerns that the Fed won’t be cutting interest rates.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-sometimes-bubbly-path/
We’ve had a lot of different devils on our back the last four years: COVID, inflation, bear markets, etc., etc. Which is likely why this moment feels a bit…weird. As we enter a fairly unassuming earnings season (3.6% growth in earnings expected), there just isn’t a big problem lurking around the corner…yet. Will that leave us some runway for the next month or two?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-devil-on-your-back/
It was Fed Week last week. And it was almost a non-event. Powell & Co. didn’t change the expected path of rate cuts, and the market responded well with the S&P 500 closing the week above 5,200 for the first time ever. But there was another discussion buried below the headlines: what the Fed is going to do with its balance sheet holdings? This is an important, if not regularly discussed, topic.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-slowing-the-run-off/
For the last two years, every move the Federal Reserve makes has had a direct correlation to the performance of the stock market. This week’s Fed meeting may be no different, but some interesting things happened last week which showed the market is moving away from the Fed as the sole determinate of success or failure.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-moving-on-from-the-fed/
The biggest news last week wasn’t economic, it was political. The starting gun has been fired on what will be one of the…strangest…Presidential campaigns in recent memory. And the shape of this race between two Presidents is going to impact markets, especially as we get into the summer and early fall.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-and-so-it-begins/
Another strong week in the market – and a great start to the year – gives us a little room to look further out into the future. And there is one $34 trillion long-term problem that causes us heartburn: the national debt.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-its-time-for-a-tough-conversation/
We heard from two of the most prominent voices in finance last week: Chairman Powell (via the FOMC Minutes) and Warren Buffett (via his annual shareholder letter). It was a very good reminder of why the debates about things like “when will the Fed cut rates” are important – but not in the big picture. Mr. Buffett’s long history has some valuable insights into how we can be better investors.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-minutes-hours-days-and-years/
We’ve talked for weeks now about the differences between the Fed’s preferred path on rate cuts and the market’s belief of what they will do. As a refresher, the Fed announced in December they believed they would cut rates three times in 2024. The market had a different view. The consensus at the time was the Fed would start rate cuts in March and would cut a total of seven times in 2024.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/politics-and-the-fed/
Fed Week is behind us and it’s clear we’re going to be waiting on rate cuts for a bit. Powell quietly admitted we were right last week: the Fed’s key motivation is fear of being wrong. But somehow the market ended the week up strongly. Why?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-no-cuts-coming/
It’s Fed week again. And while the reason has changed (when to cut rates vs. how high to raise them), what they say will have an impact on markets. And just like investors, their fears can impact their decision making.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear-at-the-fed/
Equity markets hit an all-time high on Friday (and are continuing the positive direction this week). If you’re like us, that leads to the question of where is it going next?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-yul-brynner-record/
Inflation was back in the news last week with the latest CPI data. In this edition of the Weekly Insight Memo and Weekly Insight Podcast, we look at what that report said and what it might mean for the market as we head into the new year. How did it change the “consensus” opinion for what will happen to interest rates? And most importantly, what happens if that consensus is wrong? This may be a topic we talk a lot about this year!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-if-the-consensus-is-wrong/
Last week was a rough start to the year with the S&P 500 down 1.52%. But what does that mean? Is a bad first week a harbinger of bad things to come? Have there been any significant changes in the expectations for the market or the economy in 2024?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-slow-start/
The New Year is an excellent time to take stock of things. How did last year go? What are the concerns and opportunities in the year ahead.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-2024-concerns-and-opportunities/
Christmas came early in the stock market last week. Old Saint Jerome and his merry band of elves decided it was time to start handing out presents. And boy did they. The latest report from the Fed has the markets feeling optimistic as we head into the end of the year.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-old-saint-jerome/
Perspective is an important thing. And even the smartest people in the world can fall victim to losing it. Take, for example, the Doomsday Clock. Set by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, it is supposed to provide scientific assessment of how close the world is to Armageddon. And today it’s set the closest we’ve ever been to midnight. We would argue those scientists have lost a bit of perspective.The same goes for the markets and the economy.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-doom/
The end of the year will be here before we know it. Are you ready? In this edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we address some of the important year-end planning items you should be thinking about in December. And we also take a look at what just may be the last big hurdle to ending the year on a positive note.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-racing-toward-the-finish/
If you have a view about the economy, there is a data set that backs it up. Optimistic? Look at earnings and wage growth! Pessimistic? Inflation and Fed policy! But in the end, there are a few really big things that matter. And the biggest of all is the health of the consumer. There is no better snapshot of the consumer than Black Friday.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-consumers-not-done-yet/
Market sentiment is a fickle thing. And there is no question that we want to be on the right side of that sentiment when things are humming along. But there’s risk in joining the herd, especially when there is perceived certainty about the outcome. This week we take a look at where certainty is popping up in the market (Fed policy) and why that should be a reminder to keep our heads on a swivel.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-absolute-certainty/
As a firm based in central Iowa, our office is full of people who either love or hate the Iowa Hawkeyes. But even if you hate them, you have to admit that this football season has been fascinating. They have one of the worst offenses in history and have already locked in a share of the Big 10 West title. But what does this have to do with your portfolio? It turns out there are some important lessons we can learn from the offensively inept Hawkeyes about what it takes to be successful in the market.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-know-who-you-are/
A few weeks ago, we talked about “immutable truths” in the world. Things that no one can argue about. And why – in financial markets – there really isn’t such a thing. We got a great reminder of that one Wednesday. Jerome Powell stepped to the podium after last week’s FOMC meeting and…wait for it…the market went UP! And it kept going up on Thursday and Friday. What in the world?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insig…t-like-the-other/
Tonight is Beggars' Night in Des Moines. It’s a unique Halloween tradition that was caused by a strange (and ineffective) solution to an age-old problem (misbehaving kids!). It reminds us a bit of the mess happening in Congress right now as we stare down yet another government shutdown in just 17 days. Are we going to get a spooky result?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-beggars-night/
There are a lot of things we take for granted in the world. History, personal experiences, and public perceptions often build rock solid beliefs. But sometimes, when you look back, you can’t exactly nail down where the belief originated. That got us thinking about the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Why is it 2%? How did that level become the presumed correct amount of inflation? Who came up with it?
The answer to this question might surprise you.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-why-2/
Last week we saw a divergence of confidence. On the world stage, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas has caused concern worldwide. On our shores, we started to see earnings for Q3 – notably from the big banks – which fed optimism in equity markets.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-earnings-and-israel/
Imagine for a second we were in the midst of a 45% correction in equities. Panic would rule the airwaves. Fear selling would dominate the markets. We know because it happened 15 years ago.
But what if we told you that the bond market is down more than 45% from its peak? That has significant impacts as well – and may create some significant opportunities.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bond-bust/
It was Fed week again. We’ve tried hard to talk about other things for the last few weeks, but Chairman Powell, inflation, and interest rates are the elephant in the room. The market didn’t like the supposed “hawkish pause” on Wednesday. But we think there might be something a little more dovish in Powell’s comments.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-position-to-proceed-carefully/
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a little drama roiling the markets right now. The UAW strike combined with the possibility of a government shutdown has folks on edge. But is that attitude justified? What does history tell us? And what might the real market consequences be?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-strikes-and-shutdowns-oh-my/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-more-things-change/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-validity-of-the-public-debt/
The debt ceiling debate continues to be the driver for market messaging this week. But there is some uncertainty of just how urgent the deadline is. And once – if – we get a resolution, there are some promising signs on the other side.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-x-date/
It was CPI week last week – and the results were solid. But the media shifted its focus to a different inflation gauge: “Super Core” inflation. What does it mean? And why is it important?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-super-core/
It was Fed week again. And again, the market’s initial response to Chairman Powell’s comments was…less than optimistic. But a funny thing happened after the meeting. Folks started to understand that the likelihood of a “pause” in rate hikes is real. And Powell’s optimism on the economy seeped into the market on Friday.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cleared-for-landing/
Last week was a fairly uneventful week in the market as the world waits for the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday). So in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we take the opportunity to look at the debate over the debt ceiling. This issue, while likely to be resolved, has the potential to be very damaging to our economy if the politicians screw it up.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-debt-ceiling-danger/
We’re at an important inflection point for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The meeting coming up in just 9 days may be the most important of the whole cycle and the market is on edge about what the Fed will do next.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-true-hope-vs-false-hope/
Wrapping up something like one of the quickest rises in interest rate policy in history was never going to be easy. But last week we started to see some of the most visible cracks amongst FOMC members on the correct path moving forward. What does this mean for markets over the coming weeks and months?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-some-vs-several/
It was a relatively quiet holiday week in the markets last week. We probably won’t be that lucky this week with the CPI data coming out on Wednesday. But we thought we’d take the break in the action to look at a much longer-term problem: Social Security. The trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund put out their annual analysis 10 days ago. It wasn’t pretty.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-ringing-the-alarm-on-social-security/
It was a good week in the markets last week as fears of a major bank contagion subsided and continuing positive data on inflation rolled in. This pause in the "drama" gives us a chance to look into future risks and this week we look at the economic impact of the end of payment forebearance on student loans. It has the potential to be a big one.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-stumbling-blocks-student-debt/
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-so-closeand-yet-so-far/
It’s easy to get swept up in the news. Last week was no different. Chairman Powell’s comments to Congress shook expectations for interest rates. But sometimes it is important to look back and see how trends are moving over the long-term, instead of getting wrapped up in the day-to-day.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak-part-2/
We all have had formative experiences in our youth. Maybe it was that first job, or successes in academics or athletics. For the team at Insight, one of most memorable (not always in a good way!) experiences was our time working at McDonald’s. Everyone should have to flip a burger when they’re young. It teaches you a lot. But what we didn’t imagine at the time was that the price of a McDonald’s cheeseburger might be able to tell us something about the economy and the markets.
Click here for the full length memo: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-im-lovin-it/
There was a great deal of fretting in the market last week. Higher than expected PCE numbers, a renewed focus on Ukraine, and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on all indices. There is habit in the market of having a short-term bias – a focus on the latest news of the moment. But sometimes we need to peel back the onion and look deeper. In this week’s episode, we take a deeper look at the health of consumers and businesses – over the long-term – to see how they might be weathering the time we’re in. We hope you’ll listen in.
Three years ago this week was the first time we wrote one of these memos. 156 weeks – and 156 memos – later, we will be the first to admit it is sometimes hard to produce a topic to talk about each week. What is important? What will you – our readers – find interesting? Over the last several years, the entire world has been consumed by creating “content”. The financial media is no different.
It has not exactly been a three-year period full of good news. It's understandable, then, when we have a good start to the year – as we have so far in 2023 – we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop. This week we want to dive into that “other shoe” and why, even if it does drop, we still think portfolios can have a strong recovery year. Let’s dive in.
There have been many “post-Fed” commentaries in these pages over the last year, an indication of just how important interest rate policy has been to the market and the economy. We’ve digested and expounded on countless Powell-isms and tried to read the tea leaves of where the Fed is going. Listen in to hear more on this week's episode.
Read More:
https://insightwealthgroup.com/hearing-what-we-want-to-hear/
This has been a weird start to the year. Sentiment – at least as reported on the news – is decidedly negative. Market performance? Just the opposite. But the markets seem to be on path for a phenomenon which has historically indicated bullish sentiment. We walk through that trigger – and what may be standing in its way – in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insig…the-golden-cross/
There’s a tug of war going on with market sentiment right now. The earnings season has kicked off and – at least last week – it wasn’t pretty. But the broader economic data we’re seeing – including last week’s PMI read – keep looking better and better. The result? A choppy week in the market as neither side is coming out the victor. What is going sway this battle for momentum in the market?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tug-of-war/
It's been a good start to the year in the markets. But a lot of “pundits” are warning of a drop in earnings or an earnings recession. That’s a scary term – but what does it mean for market performance?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-bad-earnings-good-markets/
Anyone thinking we would ease into 2023 was given a wake-up call last week. The long and drawn out battle for the House Speakership was the big news story – and while it didn’t impact markets directly, the concessions made to get Kevin McCarthy the Speaker’s gavel may have lingering effects. And then there was the jobs report – something that has caused drama many times in recent months.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-starting-with-a-bang/
It’s tempting to write the “Crystal Ball” piece this time of year. But we’re not fortune tellers at Insight. We can, however, pick out big trends and begin to understand how they might impact the market in the coming year.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-trends/
Happy Holidays! In our last podcast before the holidays, we take a look at the recent pronouncements from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and what they mean as we look into 2023. The market reacted a bit like Clark from Christmas Vacation getting a subscription to the Jelly of the Month Club. But should we have been surprised? Or did Chairman Powell do exactly what we should have expected by now?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-jelly-of-the-month-club/
It was a slow week in the markets as everyone waits for the “Powell-palooza” we’re going to get at the year-end Fed meeting this week. Economic data was positive throughout the week and showed inflation continuing to come down – if not at the pace some would like. Given the break in the action, we wanted to bring you up to speed on a piece of legislation that may work its way through Congress before year-end. The Secure Act 2.0 would create significant changes in retirement plans – both for employers and employees – and may change how you save for retirement.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-what-changes-is-congress-making-to-retirement-accounts/
Last week saw a number of wild swings in the market from a mixed bag of economic data and the last major comments from Chairman Powell prior to the next Fed meeting.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mixed-bag/
Last week, we discussed the four big “expectation moments” for the market for the rest of this year. With the release of the Fed minutes last Wednesday, we have one of those moments behind us.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-tea-leaves/
Happy Thanksgiving! We hope you’re able to enjoy some quality time with your family this week. Just a quick reminder that the markets are closed on Thursday and close at 12:00PM CST on Friday. Our offices will keep the same hours.
Last week was a bit of a hangover from the (very good) CPI data. A very optimistic market got put back in its place a bit by the Fed, and the errant missile strike in Poland was enough to remind everyone just how serious the war in Ukraine is to world peace.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-terminal-rate/
Well that was a great week! We finally got the election behind us (except for those of you in Georgia…). And we got a tremendous report on inflation on Thursday. The result was a swell in optimism in the market. That is undoubtedly good news, but is it possible the market is getting out ahead of itself (and the Fed)?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-patience-is-key/
Fed Chairman Powell freaked everyone out again with his remarks after the Fed’s interest rate decision last week. But was it really as bad as some were saying? Or was it just more of the same as we continue to wait for better jobs data and lower CPI reads (coming Thursday)?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-dance-continues/
Happy Halloween! We hope you’re celebrating in an appropriately spooky way. But we also hope that things don’t get too spooky in the markets this week – and that all depends on the Fed meeting Wednesday. We know (we think) they’re going to raise rates by 0.75%. But can their forward guidance give the market confidence to continue our current rally?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-goldilocks/
We’ve avoided it for as long as we can, but it’s time…we have to talk about the election. As they say, elections have consequences – and this one likely will for the market as well.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-gridlock-is-good/
Feeling nauseous yet? The month of October has been a rollercoaster ride for the markets. But the end result after all of the drama of the first half of the month? The market is flat.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-rollercoaster/
A client bumped us after the jobs report and subsequent volatility on Friday with this question: “So, a good jobs report is bad, and a bad jobs report is good?”
That’s the upside down world in which we’re living. As we’ve been saying for months, the only thing that matters is the Fed and everything else is viewed through that lens.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-good-jobs-bad-bad-jobs-good/
We’ve spent a lot of time in the Weekly Insight discussing the issues here at home with inflation and the markets. But the U.S. is just 24% of the world economy. In our evermore interconnected world, the other 76% is going to have a lot to say about the path of our economy. Last week, that was made clear when the government of new U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss decided to cut taxes in the midst of an inflation fight. World markets were thrown for a loop.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-not-so-great-britain/
Last week was one of those times when it is simply not fun to be an investor. Stocks, bonds, domestic, international…everything was down. The FOMC meeting left investors convinced rates are going higher – for longer – than expected. And Chairman Powell threatened a “policy induced recession”. So what are investors to do?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-hold/
That was a tough inflation report. And it just kicks up the drama for this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. What will Chairman Powell do? And what does this mean for the future? And when will inflation finally peak?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-peak/
The last few months have seen endless airplane analogies for the economy. “Soft landing”, “headwinds”, “turbulence”. But the truth is, our economy doesn’t have the simple choice of a good landing or a fiery crash. It’s always more complicated than that. This week, we look at what we’re hearing from the pilot (Chairman Powell) and how the market is reacting prior to the inflation data tomorrow.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whats-our-vector-victor
New housing start data last month showed America is going to build 10% less homes this year than last (thank you, inflation & rising interest rates!). But did you know that even last year we didn’t build enough homes to keep up with new household formations? The U.S. has a 3.8 million unit deficit in housing. Does that mean there may still be some investment opportunities in this space despite rising interest rates? Take a look and let us know what you think!
https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-opportunities-in-housing/
We promised you last week the lazy days of summer were ending and a more dramatic period on the market was upon us. Chairman Powell fired the starter pistol with his remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and, well, it’s safe to say the market didn’t love what it heard.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-pain
There’s a lot of speculation about the new army of 87,000 auditors authorized for the I.R.S. in the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act”. But how likely is it these roles will be filled? And how quickly?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-tax-man-cometh/
It finally happened…good inflation data! You’re well aware that we’ve been writing about and talking about this issue extensively over the last several months. Now that we have the data in our hands, it’s a good time to look at what it really means. Is this a flash in the pan before more bad data comes our way? Do we have reason to believe the easing of inflation will continue?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-good-inflation-data
The last few months have been a constantly repeating cycle of inflation, Fed Policy, and fears of a recession. Right or wrong, that drumbeat seems to have slowed as enter the end of the summer. The markets have come up nicely from the bottom, with the S&P up nearly 8% over the last month. That gives us some time to look down the field at the issues that may impact the markets between now and the end of the year.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-silly-season/
9.1% inflation and bank earnings made for an interesting week last week. But the market held in nicely, and we’re now seeing one of the strongest arguments we’ve seen yet on inflation peaking.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-stress-test/
It was another solid week in the markets last week. The mood seems to be good coming off the holiday break. But the next two weeks are going to be vitally important to how the market behaves for the rest of the summer. There is a lot of new data and information coming out between now and next Wednesday which will determine if this market has found a bottom or if more rocky weeks lie ahead.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-big-weeks-ahead/
Happy (belated) Independence Day! We hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend!
A lot has changed in the 246 years since the most important document in history was signed. We thought it might be a good time to take a look back and compare the world today vs. the world 246 years ago. The gains in health, wealth and safety are stunning. And they stand in direct contrast to the “sentiment” people have about the world today.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-life-liberty-the-pursuit-of-happiness
The Fed’s 75-basis point rate hike a week ago – and the justification for it – has made the market happy in the short-term. But the longer-term consequences of tying interest rate policy to sentiment? Probably not a good idea. We’re going to need some good inflation data to get the course reset.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-new-rules-energy/
Last week was a very important – and very painful – week in the markets. We saw some hope on Friday, but we now find ourselves officially in bear market territory following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% last week. That decision – which was not based on the Fed’s longstanding economic analysis – was initially well received. In fact, it was what the market was practically demanding. Until folks woke up Thursday morning and immediately had buyer’s remorse.
We’ve entered a phase of this downturn that is completely decoupled from the economic trends. Instead, sentiment is begetting sentiment.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-circular-sentiment-firing-squad/
You probably remember the old “Choose Your Own Adventure” books from your youth. The book would get to a critical juncture and the reader would get to pick a path for the protagonist. You’d then skip to the relevant section and read on about the impact of your choice. Friday’s inflation report offered the same editorial choices to investors. Were you looking for bad news? It was there. Optimism? There was a bit of that as well.
The market has clearly chosen the “bad news” path for the story since the report came out. But we’re quickly getting to the next critical juncture of the story. The FOMC is meeting and making a decision on the next interest rate hike this week.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-choose-your-own-adventure-inflation/
We find ourselves at an interesting crossroads this week. Typically, the start of summer means a quieter time in the market. Investors, market makers, and pundits all tend to take some time off and focus a bit less on portfolios. But is that going to happen this summer?
Maybe. But the drama and volatility we’ve felt so far this year is going to have to work itself out. And there’s some pretty solid data to back up the fact that we’re not going to find ourselves in a recession in the next few months. That may mean some good things for the next few months.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-we-love-markets-in-turmoil/
Finally! We had a great week in the market last week as all major indices broke their losing streak. It was a nice way to go into the holiday weekend and validated our decision to put some extra money into equities as mentioned in last week’s memo.
As much as we’d love to believe the market is only going up from here, it’s never that simple. So this week we take some time to look down the field at what other risks exist out there.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-looking-down-the-field/
We’ve talked for weeks in the pages of our Weekly Insight Memo and on the Weekly Insight Podcast about the things driving fear in the market. Inflation, the Fed, the fear of a recession. Fear, it seems, can become its own self-fulfilling prophesy. We certainly saw that last week in the markets.
But sometime we have to set aside the emotions and look at the facts. And the facts are this economy is in much better shape than the pundits would have you believe. The risk of a recession is remarkably low. And, we believe, inflation is peaking (or may have already peaked).
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-were-buyers-heres-why/
Last week was inflation week in the market. We finally got the inflation data we’ve been waiting for. But what we didn’t get was a definitive answer. Do you think inflation is waning? There was data to back that up. Do you think inflation is going to get worse? There was data to back that up as well.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-inflation-crossroads/
Last week was the week the market had been waiting for: Fed Week. The result was what we would consider to be positive news from the Fed. The market thought so, too...until it didn't. The end result? You probably got whiplash if you were watching the market closely!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-whiplash/
We’ve harped on “Fear and Greed” over and over again. Why? They are two of the biggest drivers of capital flows into and out of the market each and every year. And more often than not, they are exactly the wrong motivation at the wrong time.
It’s easy to recite the old Warren Buffett quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” and count it as sage wisdom. But it’s a lot harder to do. Why? Because fear, especially, and greed, to some degree, are biologically hardwired into our system.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fear/
The Fed waiting game is upon us again. The market reacted last week to Federal Reserve leaders (notably including Chairman Powell) stating that a 0.50% hike in rates at the May meeting was likely. That shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, but the market is now officially locking that in. The big question – however – is not what the Fed does, but what Chairman Powell says after the meeting on May 4th. Is he optimistic about the future? Does he see inflation peaking? The market is begging for that information. And until then we wait!
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-while-you-wait/
Inflation. Interest rates. COVID. Ukraine. Wash, rinse, repeat. The impact of these issues on the market and economy have been discussed and debated time and again by every pundit known to man. But what if the end of the world isn’t coming? What if there are some reasons to be optimistic in the face of all of this “dire news”?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-are-we-bulls/
A bill passed the U.S. House last week – called the Secure Act 2.0 – which is designed to improve the system for retirement savings. On its face, it has a lot of good things in it: better catch-up contribution rules, delaying required minimum distributions until 75, etc. But the problem is, no one wants to have an honest conversation with American workers about their expectations for retirement.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-memo-the-truth-about-retirement/
Every week it seems there’s something new the “financial gurus” on TV are fretting about. Last week, it was the “inverted yield curve” and the near certainty it means a looming recession? But does it? Is a recession really coming?
Simply put, yes. A recession is coming. But that’s because a recession is ALWAYS coming! Over the last seventy years, we’ve had a recession, on average, every 6.4 years. They are a natural part of the economic cycle. But is the yield curve a good predictor? That depends. There are a LOT of yield curves. And which one you cherry pick can either be tremendously predictive or not at all.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-recession-is-coming-eventually/
Just two years ago last week, the market bottomed during the original “COVID Correction”. It seems like there has been constant drama since then. COVID surges, a contested Presidential election, inflation, interest rate debates, war, etc., etc. Which is why last week seemed so…strange.
Why? There wasn’t much drama! The market was up. The current dramas (inflation, Ukraine, interest rates, COVID) continued, but without any flare ups. It gave us a nice break to look at the future and see what the end of the quarter may bring.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-wheres-the-drama/
The Fed has finally spoken. It announced a 0.25% rate increase last week (expected). But they also released their “dot plot” for the next few years and it showed the potential for seven rate hikes this year. The market seemed to appreciate the Fed’s aggressive approach to inflation and rallied for the week. But what will that mean for the market long-term? We take a deeper dive into the Fed’s decision and it may mean for portfolios in this edition of the Weekly Insight.
Read more here: insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-spoonful-of-sugar
This week is the tale of two titans: Powell vs. Putin. The war in Ukraine – and especially its impact on the energy economy – is being felt around the world. Its impact on inflation is starting to be felt and may make things worse before they get better. How the U.S. – and specifically the Fed – responds this week is going to set the table for how markets do for the rest of the year. We know the FOMC is going to raise rates this week – but how many more rate hikes can we expect? And how much of an impact will shutting off Russian oil have on the economy?
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-powell-v-putin/
Last week was a tale of wild swings in the market. Bad news on Ukraine? Markets down hard. Good news on the economy and interest rates? Markets up strongly. It truly was a tale of two markets. And, while the volatility continues today, there is reason to be optimistic about the economic situation here in the United States. Barring a true “Black Swan” event where NATO and Russia enter into direct conflict – something we still consider unlikely – there continue to be opportunities to succeed in this environment.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-tale-of-two-markets/
Russia’s war against Ukraine is playing out on two stages: the cities of Ukraine and boardrooms of banks and companies across Russia and the West. As the West has decided not to engage Russia in direct military confrontation, the sanctions battlefield is increasingly important. But is it enough? And what else is on the table? And how will it impact the U.S. markets and economy? We take a deep dive this week to better understand the connection between our economy, sanctions, and the conflict in Ukraine.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-sanctions-game/
It was another volatile week in the markets. Why? Uncertainty. We’ve said it time and again that the market just can’t stand not knowing what’s going to happen.
The good news? There is a time limit on this uncertainty. We’re going to know soon what is going to happen in Ukraine. We’re going to know by March 16th what’s going to happen with interest rates. And right now the market is pricing in the worst case scenario on both issues.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-mark-your-calendars/
Happy Valentine’s Day! We hope you’re able to spend a little time with your loved ones today to celebrate (or, if this is your reminder, are able to run to the flower shop!).
Sadly, not everyone is feeling the love today. At the top of the list? Pretty much everyone in Ukraine. And the market took notice last Friday when Biden’s National Security Advisor stepped to the podium at the White House Press Room and essentially said “RUN!”. Between that and some rocky inflation data, last week was an interesting ride in the markets.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-vlads-valentine/
Families gathered around their TVs this weekend to watch the kickoff to the Winter Olympics – a once every two years opportunity to get behind our country in something we can all agree upon. It’s fun to cheer on Team USA! But it also comes at an interesting time in the world. The kickoff weekend saw Vladmir Putin and Chairman Xi stand side-by-side and reiterate their shared commitment to standing up to the west. It was a reminder of Olympics gone by during the Cold War.
It was also an important reminder that not everything that impacts the market is related to interest rates or COVID. World affairs haven’t mattered as much in the last few years, but historically they have had profound effects. As such, we thought it time to dive a little deeper into Putin’s thinking on Ukraine and the impact that may have on the world order.
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-putin-papers/
Last week was likely one of the “busiest” weeks in the market since the start of COVID. There was a lot of drama, most of it tied to the Fed meeting on Wednesday. We saw volatility unlike any we have seen in nearly two years. But the end result? Not much. Markets closed the week up and much of the panic over the Fed’s decisions proved to be unfounded.
Sandwich that inside a month filled with earnings reports (largely positive), rising (and now falling) COVID cases, and the potential for a war in the former Soviet Union, and January was a rollercoaster. In this week’s Weekly Insight we breakdown what that might mean for the market over the coming months.
Link to article referenced: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1s8CqV5wwK0yg7g_V36Sgai_EjhiXRyXS/view?usp=sharing
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fed-psychosis/
There is a great line from the Joker in the movie The Dark Knight (a must watch if you haven’t seen it – but we are about to spoil the ending…). To set the stage, he has two ferries (full of people) filled with explosives. Passengers in each ferry hold the trigger to the other ferry’s explosives. He is trying to prove the point that people will kill indiscriminately to save their own skins.
As the deadline approaches, he looks at Batman and says – rather dramatically – “And. Here. We. Go.”
The only problem? Neither ferry can bring themselves to kill the other. And nothing happens. His plan fails. The message? Despite all our problems, people are inherently good.
Last week was a bit of a “Here we go” week in the markets. We had some exceedingly popular stocks take a big tumble. The NASDAQ officially entered correction territory (down 10% from its high). Famous investor Jeremy Grantham declared the end of the bull market. Shares of growth favorite Peloton collapsed.
But while markets are not inherently good or bad, there are good and bad assets. And while there is a lot of drama happening in the markets, there are fundamentally sound aspects of it that are worth remembering when have periods of volatility like we are seeing today.
Read more here: insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-here-we-go/