F-World: The Fragility Podcast

View Details

Philippe Vogeleer is a chartered director specialized in partnerships between companies, governments, and international organizations. Until March 2024 he was the Global Head of Corporate Business Development for Vodafone. Prior to joining Vodafone, Philippe held senior positions for Ooredoo, Orange, and Deloitte. He has lived in 10 countries and worked in more than 100. He holds a master’s degree in law, a master’s degree in media and communications, and an Executive MBA. Philippe now advises a small number of companies as Non-Executive Director and supports the work of international charities, including Global Citizen. He is also a Visiting Lecturer at INSEAD.

We start our conversation by learning about Philippe’s international background, his early interest in human development, and how he discovered the importance of mobile phones and satellite technology. We then take a stroll through the decades with Philippe highlighting the big business opportunities for the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector in each time period - from radio waves in the 1980s and 90s, to networks and services in the 2000s and 2010s. He also reminds us that most people don’t have a laptop, accessing digital tools only on mobile phones, and that today’s opportunity lies in bringing access to the devices.

We then shift to discussing how we can define the ICT sector and what we mean by digitalization. Also, we ask Philippe to help us understand what fragility looks like on the ground, from an ICT perspective, and how the ICT industry and digitalization can help counter fragility. This leads us to talk about what is needed to build a business case in fragile states or even in conflict areas, how you can engage external partners, and how to convince internal decision makers to take on the risk of investing under more difficult conditions. We also discuss the benefits of digitalization for governments, the main obstacles to closing the digital divide, and the role of AI in digitalization. We wrap up our conversation by considering the finite nature of money, how it can best catalyze digitalization, and the potential future for the ICT industry.

Watch or listen to the episode for so many more insights from Philippe Vogeleer!

Philippe Vogeleer

philippe.vogeleer@globalpartners4digitaldevelopment.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-partners-for-digital-development

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:02:11 Philippe’s background – people, places, ideas that charted his path

00:08:16 ICT’s big business opportunities through the decades

00:14:02 What is digitalization? What is the ICT sector?

00:18:13 What is fragility? What does it look like from an ICT perspective?

00:26:15 How can ICT and digitalization help counter fragility?

00:34:30 The business case for digitalization in fragile states and low-income countries

00:45:31 Digitalization benefits for governments

00:54:30 Obstacles to closing the digital divide

01:00:28 The role of AI in digitalization: risks or benefits

01:08:56 The finite nature of money & how to best catalyze digitalization

01:14:01 Potential future for the ICT industry

01:21:03 Wrap-up

View Details

Stefan Dercon is Professor of Economic Policy at Oxford University, where he also directs the Center for the Study of African Economics. The author of 5 books and many studies, Stefan has had a distinguished career as an academic and policy advisor on economic development. His accomplishments are many. To name just a few: between 2011 and 2017, he was Chief Economist of the Department of International Development (DFID), the government department in charge with the UK’s aid policy and spending; between 2020-2022, he was the Development Policy Advisor to successive Foreign Secretaries at the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Stefan is a virtuoso of development! His approach to our conversation was equal parts exciting and instructive, a style that also comes across in his writing, making his book very hard to put down.

We start by learning about Stefan: his experience growing up in Belgium, being taught by Catholic priests about African socialism, Ujamaa and Julius Nyerere, and Marx and discovering his interest in economics as a means of pursuing development. His early career in Tanzania and Ethiopia highlighted the relationship between risk and poverty and the need to consider uncertainty when engaging in policy advice or research. We then shift to talking about the four propositions that compete as diagnoses of core problems of poverty and development that Stefan outlines in his book: poor initial endowments, market failures that trap the poor in poverty, market failures that are costly for poor countries, weak institutions. He gives us an overview and tells us why the propositions fall short on explaining the successes and failures of development. We also talk about the most important trends in development in recent decades: the dramatic decrease in poverty globally, the Africanization of poverty, and the increasing concentration of poverty in fragile states.

The conversation then turns to the elites, what values drive them, and why would they gamble on a development bargain. We talk about the role of natural resources, political systems, and how external actors can influence the emergence of development bargains. We also discuss the role of Western and Chinese elites in development bargains and what is good policy advice.

Stefan Dercon

Website: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/people/stefan-dercon

X: https://twitter.com/gamblingondev

LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/stefan-dercon-45927b104

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - x.com/alexmmitran, linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran

EPISODE RESOURCES

Stefan Dercon, “Gambling on Development: Why some Countries Win and Others Lose,” Hurst, London, 2022. https://www.gamblingondevelopment.com

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:24 Stefan’s background

00:02:49 Economics of poverty

00:04:16 Connection between risk & poverty

00:08:16 Brief overview of development thinking

00:14:57 Recent trends in development

00:19:55 The Africanization of poverty & What is fragility

00:25:39 The problem of fixed mental models of fragility

00:28:47 Who are the elites

00:41:11 The gambling in development bargains

00:47:24 What values drive the elites

00:54:25 Natural resource & political systems in dev. bargains

00:58:51 The role of Western & Chinese elites in dev. bargains

01:09:14 Are the elite bargains in the West still dev. bargains

01:19:09 Citizens’ role in dev. bargains

01:29:22 External actors & the emergence of dev. bargains

01:41:28 “Peace is ugly” – can international institutions accept it

01:51:20 Development is 50% history & 50% agency

02:00:40 Private sector role in the dev. bargain

02:09:48 What is good policy advice

02:19:56 Wrap-up

View Details

Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis, a researcher center of the Spanish National Research Council. He also directs the master’s program in Data Science for Decision Making at the Barcelona School of Economics. Most recently, his research focus has been on how conflict can be predicted using millions of newspaper articles – a project which drives the conflictforecast.org website. This research project has become a key resource for global work on conflict prevention and has led to collaborations with the Spanish Central Bank, the German Federal Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the UN, World Bank, and many others.

This conversation was a tour de force and covered a lot of topics: from taxes and trust, to fiscal capacity as a dimension of state capacity, to fragility and the macroeconomic implications of violent conflict, to forecasting conflict using machine learning and implications for policy makers.

Hannes gives us a live demonstration of conflictforecast.org and if you’re interested in how AI can help us forecast conflict then this is the conversation for you!

Hannes Mueller

Website: https://www.hannesfelixmueller.com

Conflict forecast: https://conflictforecast.org

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannes-mueller-research/

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES

Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller. 2012. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review.

Timothy Besley, Hannes Mueller, Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility In: Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States. Eds: Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza, and Peter Montiel, Oxford University Press (2021). International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198853091.003.0009

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 20, Issue 6, December 2022

Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, & Alessandro Ruggieri. 2022. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2236.

TIMESTAMPS

(00:00:00) Introduction

(00:01:17) Hannes’s background

(00:03:26) Shock therapy in Poland vs. Russia

(00:05:42) How Hannes’s interest in politics shapes his research

(00:09:09) Institution formation, fragility, & fiscal capacity

(00:16:05) Trust, taxation, & public services

(00:22:06) What is fragility

(00:29:32) Relationship between fragility & violent conflict

(00:33:11) Macroeconomic implications of conflict

(00:37:21) Does conflict always lead to fragility

(00:41:21) Forecasting fragility vs causal understanding

(00:43:42) Human factors & forecasting fragility

(00:50:42) Prevention & forecasting

(00:55:09) Why is conflict prediction a hard problem

(00:58:19) Machine learning for conflict prevention

(01:03:21) What is a good model for conflict prevention?

(01:11:05) Text availability by language for training the model

(01:15:54) Conflictforecast.org demo

(01:25:31) What can you ask the model & what you shouldn’t ask

(01:37:47) How can the model inform policy action & prevention

(01:44:36) How can conflictforecast.org augment human decision making

(01:49:51) The role of stabilizing factors in cross country comparisons

(01:54:22) Hannes’s data wish list

(02:01:26) Do LLMs like ChatGPT impact the model’s performance

(02:04:37) Is there a role for sentiment analysis

(02:08:45) Future research goals

(02:13:08) Institutional myopia

(02:15:27) Should we bring back salons

(02:19:15) Wrap-up

View Details

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” was published on October 17, 2023.

This was an incredibly interesting conversation and full of insights about the fragility present right now in one of the most prosperous countries in the world! We start by talking about how Seth’s experience with fragility around the world helped him spot the fragility present in America’s own neighborhoods and what motivated him to write the book. We then discuss what fragile neighborhoods look like, what makes a neighborhood fragile, and the role of norms and close relationships in the fragility of our communities. Seth makes the point that fragility is about relationships, whether those are found at the local community level, between communities, or at level of national institutions – and the nature of those relationships or their absence is what makes fragility emerge.

We also talk about why we have fragile neighborhoods and what policies and factors have contributed the most to this problem. Our conversation touches upon the role of public service and on the “poverty-industrial-complex” & institutional obstacles to addressing fragility in neighborhoods. Seth also makes the case for the value of prevention in terms of saving social, human, and economic capital and highlights marriage as one of the institutions that can help prevent social decay. We wrap up our conversation by discussing the need for reviving the American Dream and bringing back into our neighborhoods the robust institutions and instincts for civil society that Alexis de Tocqueville observed two centuries ago.

Listen to the episode and read Seth’s book for so many more ideas on how we can help neighborhoods exit fragility!

Dr. Seth D. Kaplan

Website: https://sethkaplan.org

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28

Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13

Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplan

Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/

Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSG

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:32 Seth’s experience

00:04:00 What fragile neighborhoods look like?

00:10:21 Why Seth wrote this book?

00:16:48 The role of norms & closeness in relationships

00:24:30 Migration & social cohesion in neighborhoods

00:30:19 What's not working?

00:37:25 Problems in fragile neighborhoods

00:41:50 Homelessness

00:48:54 Why we have fragile neighborhoods?

00:57:34 The hero’s journey: rethinking meritocracy

01:06:07 Placemaking & the role of jobs

01:12:44 The role of public service & elected politicians

01:17:38 The poverty industrial complex: obstacles to well being

01:26:50 Fragility prevention in neighborhoods

01:34:13 Lessons for international development

01:41:07 The case for reviving the American Dream

01:55:43 Wrap-up

View Details

Laura Frigenti is the Chief Executive Officer of the Global Partnership for Education (GPE). She has had an amazing career in international development working across Latin America, Africa, and Europe over almost four decades. Laura has held leadership positions in national government agencies, the World Bank,NGOs, and the private sector. Throughout her career, she focused on a range of issues, from trade and private sector development, to infrastructure, financial sector reform, and education. Laura was appointed Director General of the Italian Overseas Development Agency, with the responsibility of setting up the newly created agency. Laura also served as chief of staff to the President ofthe World Bank.

We start by talking about Laura’s journey, from growing up in Italy to how studying abroad sparked her interest in development. We move on to Laura’s views on development, the main obstacles that stand in the way of achieving development (political will, resources, and human capital), and how we can foster the political will necessary for development to take place. Laura then also shares with us her perspective on the evolution of thinking around fragility and how, over the last 20 years, it has become clear that fragility is a global problem. She highlights two main dimensions of fragility - individual and institutional - and how widespread institutional fragility acts as an obstacle to overcoming individual fragility.

Our conversation then focuses on education. We discuss the relationship between education and fragility, the key challenges facing the education sector today, and the need for education to create skills that are needed by the private sector. Laura sees education as foundational and going beyond individual learning - it is the cornerstone to creating a strong state, economic growth, political stability, as well as a stronger and more stable society. We also talk about the role of technology in closing existing educational gaps and whether technology can help increase access to education for girls in places like Afghanistan. Laura then explains the need for a new narrative for education in the midst of competing global crises and helps us understand the Global Partnership for Education’s unique approach.

Listen to the episode for so many more insights on development and education from Laura Frigenti!

Laura Frigenti

Website: https://www.globalpartnership.org/who-we-are/ceo

Twitter: https://twitter.com/GPECEO

About the Global Partnership for Education

GPE is a shared commitment to ending the world’s learning crisis. We mobilize partners and funds to support nearly 90 lower-income countries to transform their education systems so that every girl and boy can get the quality education they need to unlock their full potential and contribute to building a better world.  For more than 20 years, GPE has mobilized partners and funds to get 160 million more girls and boys in school and improve learning in partner countries around the world. 

To learn more: https://www.globalpartnership.org

Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpforeducation

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

01:29 Laura’s background

04:11 What is development?

06:37 Top three obstacles in the way of development

08:37 Options to foster political will

13:17 A perspective on fragility today

16:46 The relationship between education & fragility

23:53 The key challenges facing the education sector today

30:15 Is there a smell test for new ideas, new plans, grand strategies to change?

36:15 Education that responds to private sector needs

39:36 The role of technology in closing existing educational gaps

44:59 Can technology help increase access to learning for girls?

48:13 The need for a new narrative for education

52:33 The Global Partnership for Education’s approach

56:37 When will our planet be fully literate and numerate?

58:50 Wrap-up

View Details

Dan Runde is Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he directs the Project on Prosperity and Development. He previously worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development (or USAID), the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation, and in investment banking with experience in Latin America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Dan recently wrote a new book called "The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power." This is the first book in decades to look at U.S. non-military power through the lens of great power competition. He is also the host of "Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy," a podcast series focused on updating the United States’ soft power playbook to meet the hopes and aspirations of developing countries.

This was an incredibly fun conversation and chock-full of insights! We start by talking about Dan’s path, from growing up in a family that taught him the importance of public service, to his experience of working for USAID, the World Bank’s IFC, and currently for CSIS. Dan then talks about his views as a conservative internationalist, and why we need the trade, security, and multilateral system that was designed and built by the US, in partnership with others, after WWII. He goes on to highlight that while the system is necessary, it cannot function in the absence of leadership and asks us to imagine which set of values we would rather have shape the world we live in.

We then shift to how global development is going to be increasingly refracted through the lens of great power competition, where the tools of soft power become even more critical. Dan’s framing of development as applied foreign policy helps make the concept more real and applicable. We also discuss the areas of cooperation between US and Europe, as well as some of the tensions still present between these long-standing partners. Afterwards, we touch upon the thorny topic of mining, minerals, and climate change and the much-needed realization that decarbonization doesn't mean dematerialization. Our conversation then turns to the Global Fragility Act (GFA) and what the US needs to do to succeed in this new initiative. Dan sums up the top priorities for U.S. development efforts over the next five years: help Ukraine, close the digital divide, mining and minerals, nearshoring, and address corruption.

Listen to the episode and pick up Dan’s book for so many more insights!

Dan Runde

Website: https://www.csis.org/people/daniel-f-runde

Twitter: https://twitter.com/danrunde

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielfrunde/

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Project on US Leadership in Development: https://www.csis.org/programs/project-us-leadership-development

Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy with Dan Runde: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/building-future-freedom-prosperity-and-foreign-policy-dan-runde

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:32 Dan’s background

00:10:11 What is a conservative internationalist?

00:19:37 The world needs leadership not entropy

00:23:11 What is development & the role of political engagement in donor countries

00:33:19 What is fair vs. unfair global power competition?

00:45:15 What is soft power? Development is applied foreign policy

00:52:31 US – Europe cooperation vs competition in development

01:06:24 The Global Fragility Act – how to get it right

01:10:59 Priorities for U.S. development efforts in the next five years

View Details

Christopher Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, where he co-leads the Development Economics Center and the Obama Foundation Scholars Program. Chris also has affiliations with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), MIT’s Poverty Action Lab, the National Bureau for Economic Research, and the Center for Global Development. He has served as a consultant and adviser to the World Bank, the United Nations, and governments in Uganda, Liberia, Colombia, and the United States.

This conversation was a lot of fun and we covered a lot of ground: from Sparta to Kiev, from the Peloponnesian War to the Iraq War, from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to the prospects of war between China and Taiwan, and so much more!

We start by talking about Chris’s journey, from growing up in Ottawa to finding his way to international work and then eventually to conflict. We then shift to Chris’s book, “Why We Fight”, and the concept of fragility. Chris highlights how fragility sets the stage upon which the five reasons why we fight push a society away from bargaining to using violence or as he puts it: “when killing an Archduke in some random Balkan city can send the world to war.”

The five reasons for war that Chris identifies in his book are: unchecked interests, intangible incentives, uncertainty, commitment problems, and misperceptions. We discuss whether there is a potential hierarchy among then, how they are connected, which of the five reasons played a role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as how intangible incentives can be seen in the Ukrainians’ resolution to protect their country.

Chris also sums up decades of research and practical insights into 10 general principles that can set the world on the path to peace. We talk about how leaders are tempted by grand visions, but in reality, change happens incrementally – too bad 3% better doesn’t make for a good slogan!

Listen to the episode for so many more insights from Chris Blattman!

Dr. Christopher Blattman
Website: https://chrisblattman.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/cblatts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisblattman

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/
Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Blattman, Christopher (2022). Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. New York: Viking Press

The prospects for war with China: Why I see a serious chance of World War III in the next decade
https://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:00:55 Chris’s background – people, places, ideas that charted his path
00:02:56 How Chris approaches risk and how to think about career moves
00:05:08 How culture enables risk taking and the role of failure in progress
00:07:17 A potential correlation between risk taking and creativity
00:10:50 What is fragility?
00:12:57 Dividing the pie and fragility
00:15:32 Why we don’t write books about wars that didn’t happen OR Why enemies prefer to loathe one another in peace
00:18:29 When do we actually fight
00:22:41 The five reasons for wars
00:26:49 How to think about uncertainty vs. commitment problems
00:30:46 How do intangible incentives that evolve change the nature of commitment problems
00:33:07 What is the interplay between uncertainty and technology
00:38:16 How interdependence failed to stop Russia’s attack on Ukraine
00:44:58 Is there a threshold of violence that we should accept in order to avoid war?
00:47:56 Why the West missed the Ukrainian people’s resolve - Most oppressed people don’t revolt
00:53:12 Bad guys and good guys support propaganda
00:56:52 Can you change people’s and leaders’ misperceptions?
01:01:19 Which leaders take their country to war - Leaders that have military training, but no battle experience, take their country to war
01:05:06 Wicked problems – what are they and how to tell the difference between a simple and a wicked problem
01:07:44 When misperceptions are desirable, aka politics
01:11:29 Chris’s 10 commandments as the anti-bureaucracy commandments

View Details

This episode is a grand tour of Seth’s core ideas about fragile and conflict-affected countries. We start by talking about Seth’s professional journey, which began out of his passion for travel and insatiable curiosity about why some societies work better than others. We then shift to the concept of fragility. Seth argues that social dynamics shape the institutions, understood both as “the rules of the game,” as well as the state apparatus. The pathways in and out of fragility or conflict depend on the interplay between formal institutions and informal social rules which govern collective action. Fragility and conflict can be prevented if social groups can come together and chart a unifying course of action that leads them towards prosperity – in other words, if they can manage political and social transitions.

We then explore how these factors interact with politics, economics, and security. Seth provides a sweeping overview of situations where countries and communities made “good enough” progress to avoid collapse and even prosper, from Nigeria and Somaliland to Guatemala, India, and Indonesia. In most cases, leaders and elites were able to rally around a common storyline that enabled them achieve unity of purpose and navigate through tough transitions. We also talk about the hard cases, from Libya to Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. The conversation delves into many fascinating tangents. We discuss the work of the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and how it deploys its framework in Libya and Colombia. Seth also argues that multilateral organizations like the World Bank must create the conditions for brave leaders who can move their societies forward rather than focus on purely technical policy advice or project financing.

We conclude with the reasons for hope in fragile states, and with a reflection on the skills needed to be an effective operator in the most complex societies (hint – it’s about the human soul).

Dr. Seth D. Kaplan
Website: https://sethkaplan.org
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13
Mercatus Center’s Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplan
Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/
Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES:

United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337

Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSG

Seth D. Kaplan. 2018. Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity. https://amzn.to/3RLAQ7Y

Seth D. Kaplan. 2013. Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States. https://amzn.to/3YwbH2Z

Seth D. Kaplan. 2008. Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development. https://amzn.to/3Yu9BkV

Sunil Khilnani. 1997. The Idea of India. https://bit.ly/3DOyfnF

TIMESTAMPS:
00:01:04 Seth’s story – Wondering youth
00:04:29 Passion for societies in transition (Nigeria)
00:08:04 Differences between people: Western and non-Western cultures
00:10:21 What is fragility?
00:12:49 Social cohesion & strong institutions (Somaliland & Syria)
00:15:20 Social cohesion & impact on politics & economics (Botswana)
00:20:16 Historical exceptions and what makes them special (India & Indonesia)
00:24:37 Unifying leaders building on historical legacy (Nehru & Sukarno)
00:27:21 Transitions unveiling social fractures (Libya vs. Tunisia)
00:31:50 Shifting to a good equilibrium – decentralization (Nigeria), social cohesion (Libya), external anchors (Guatemala)
00:39:29 Tough choices: corruption & violence or total country implosion?
00:44:55 Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) approach
01:00:33 Inclusiveness requires courage (Democrats & Republicans)
01:10:04 How to create a common identity?
01:14:51 Transitions for Ukraine, Afghanistan, & Syria
01:28:38 People in fragile states – reasons for hope
01:34:56 Skills, knowledge, & a new vision to help fragile states
01:41:37 Wrap-up

View Details

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.

This is the second episode in a three-part series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility.

We start by talking about why conflict prevention should constantly be on the minds of political actors, civil society, the private sector, and international organizations. Alexandre paints a vivid picture of how the ebb and flow of crises in the absence of prevention can get a country trapped in a downward spiral of conflict and how countries should aim to surf above the narrow corridor between peace and conflict. We then discuss the how communication about the risk of conflict can interact with expectations about the trajectory of a country and the delicate balance between raising an alarm without degenerating into alarmism; and how in order to learn what works in prevention we need to look at countries that that experience near misses and manage to avoid conflict.

Our conversation then moves on to dealing “wild cards” in prevention – from extremist groups to external actors – and how we can engage in prevention when key actors have an interest in maintaining or starting a conflict. We also talk about the need to capitalize on opportune moments to help a country get on the pathway to peace and to whether there are red lines that international organizations should cross in order to prevent conflict. Further, we discuss the role of the private sector in preventing conflict and the conditions in which it should play a role. Alexandre makes it clear that while the private sector is an important actor, it is no panacea and warns us not to force the private sector into situations where it can only succeed by being a bad actor.

As a preview to our next episode with Alexandre on the geopolitics of fragility, we wrap up this podcast by talking about prevention in an interconnected world: how the global stage has changed since the release of the report in 2018, what should motivate citizens in Western countries to care about prevention, and the shifting roles and interests of China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.

Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre deliver a masterclass in prevention!

Dr. Alexandre Marc
Website: https://www.alexandremarc.org
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1
International Institute for Strategic Studies: https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marc
Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/
Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES:

United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337

World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389

International Crisis Group. 2022. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Crisis Group Africa Report N°309. 21 June 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/309-considering-political-engagement-al-shabaab-somalia

Alexandre Marc, Bruce Jones. 2021. The New Geopolitics of Fragility: Russia, China, and the Mounting Challenge for Peacebuilding. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/FP\_20211015\_new\_geopolitics\_fragility\_marc\_jones\_v2.pdf

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:07 How to build a path to prevention
00:05:35 Prevention needs attention not alarmism
00:13:25 How to learn what successful prevention looks like
00:21:19 “Wild cards” in prevention and conflict: external interference & extreme beliefs
00:29:34 What to do when actors have an interest in undermining prevention?
00:34:31 How to break out of “indefinite conflict”
00:40:40 How to capitalize on opportune moments for prevention
00:47:22 Red lines and tradeoffs in prevention
00:53:44 The private sector - does it have a role in prevention?
01:02:10 Prevention in an interconnected world
01:06:42 Why should we care about prevention?
01:11:14 The competition between models of governance
01:16:46 Wrap-up

View Details

Sarah Cliffe is the director of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC). Prior to that, she held several leadership positions at the World Bank and United Nations. Sarah pioneered the work on fragile and conflict-affected states at the World Bank, serving also as the Special Representative for the 2011 World Development Report on Conflict, Security, and Development. At the UN, she spearheaded efforts to help countries build civilian capacities to strengthen peacebuilding and post-conflict transitions. Sarah’s vast experience ranges from countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Rwanda, South Africa, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste. She began her career in the United Kingdom and has degrees from Cambridge University and Columbia University.

This episode is full of big questions and insightful answers from the very beginning. To start, we speak to Sarah about her formative years, and how her early impressions of fragility and conflict were actually shaped by her upbringing in a mining town in Wales at a time of social upheaval in the United Kingdom. She also shares her perspectives on what communities at risk in the UK, South Africa, and Rwanda had in common – and why some were more resilient. Our conversation then turns more conceptual, as we take a look at how the insights of her work at the World Bank on conflict, security, and development can help us understand today’s global fragility trends.

We then explore in depth the big challenges on the world stage ahead of the UN’s General Assembly meetings in September. How are the growing tensions between the US, Russia, and China affecting global governance, especially the UN? How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine divided the international community and what are the perspectives of developing countries? What factors have influenced responses to refugees from Ukraine and beyond? How is the future of multilateralism intertwined with domestic politics? And are there any silver linings to geopolitical fragmentation and the new Cold War between the US and China?

We conclude on a high note, talking about reasons to be hopeful – listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.

We conclude on a high note, talking about hope and how history can give us reasons to be hopeful. Listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.

Sarah Cliffe

Twitter: https://twitter.com/sarah_cliffe

The Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University: https://cic.nyu.edu/people/sarah-cliffe

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

EPISODE RESOURCES:

World Bank. 2005. Low-Income Countries Under Stress: Update. Washington, DC: World Bank, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/458871468328174684/pdf/34789.pdf

World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389

Sarah Cliffe and Karina Gerlach. Development Competition is Heating Up: China’s Global Development Initiative, the G7 Partnership for Infrastructure, and the Global Alliance on Food Security. New York: Center on International Cooperation, July 22, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/development_competition_is_heating_up_july_2022.pdf

Sarah Cliffe et all. How to Maintain International Unity on Ukraine (Part II). New York: Center on International Cooperation, May 31, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/what_needs_to_be_done_to_maintain_international_unity_on_ukraine_part_ii.pdf

Sarah Cliffe et all. Recent UN Votes on Ukraine: What Needs to be Done to Maintain International Unity (Part I). New York: Center on International Cooperation, April 4, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/what_needs_to_be_done_to_maintain_international_unity_on_ukraine_april_2022.pdf

General Assembly of the United Nations, High-Level Meetings of the 77th Session, https://www.un.org/en/ga/77/meetings/

United Nations, Our Common Agenda: Report of the Secretary-General, New York: United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/content/common-agenda-report/assets/pdf/Common_Agenda_Report_English.pdf

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:12 Growing up in Wales, working in South Africa, Rwanda after the genocide

00:04:31 Fragility & conflict in the UK, then and now

00:07:33 Trade unions as community leaders in the UK & South Africa

00:10:19 Conflict vs. contestation: What stressors exacerbate violence?

00:14:53 Conflict, security, & development (World Development Report 2011)

00:21:22 Fragility drivers: External stressors, group-based inequality, technology & identity

00:27:55 Geopolitical fragmentation, UN General Assembly Meetings

00:33:09 Multilateralism and domestic politics in a changing world order

00:37:05 Reforming the UN in a time of crisis

00:41:18 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, maintaining the credibility of the UN

00:48:12 Ukraine, Iraq & the accountability of great powers

00:55:00 Responses to refugees: Ukraine, Syria, Libya

01:00:19 Refugees, identity, & double standards

01:05:50 Geopolitical fragmentation & conflict risks

01:09:12 US vs. China: Is a new Cold War a bad thing?

01:14:18 Free speech & joy as proxies for good governance

01:17:47 History as a reason for hope

01:19:59 Wrap-up

View Details

Dr. Abdirahman Duale Beileh is a Somali economist, professor, politician, philanthropist, poet, and well acclaimed song writer. In August 2022, Dr. Beileh finished his term as Somalia’s Minister of Finance, having served for the past five years. Previously, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation from 2014 to 2015. Dr. Beileh has been a driving force behind the reestablishment of the Somali state, and the country’s return to the international scene.

We start our conversation with memories from Dr. Beileh’s childhood home outside the city of Hargeisa. An opportunity to study and work abroad in the United Arab Emirates and the United States drove him to question the situation in his native Somalia, eventually leading him to pursue a 30-year career at the African Development Bank (AfDB). We then discuss Somalia’s transition from a failed state to one where elections and a peaceful transition of power recently took place. We explore what went right and the remaining challenges for the future. Dr. Beileh shares his experience of working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other partners on issues such as debt relief and the process of building from scratch an international coalition to support Somalia. He passionately talks about the challenges of instilling a “tax-payer mentality” in a country where most people only experience of taxation as extortion by the violent extremist group Al-Shabaab, as well as the urgent need to finance the security sector. He further shares his experience of collaborating with the finance ministers of Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMS) and outlines his approach to building trust with citizens, federal member state governments, and international partners. And his toolkit is wide-ranging, from transparent communication to music and poetry. Finally, Dr. Beileh sets out a compelling 10-year vision for a Somalia: a country that is self-sufficient in food production, where the link between floods and famine is broken through good governance, and where young people can earn a quality education and pursue their dreams.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Songs by Minister Beileh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=RDNI1Fbh2HnF8&v=NI1Fbh2HnF8&feature=emb_rel_end
https://fb.watch/c-r_vmUL6X/

International Monetary Fund (2022) “IMF Executive Board Completes the Second and Third Reviews of the Extended Credit Facility for Somalia”, IMF, Washington https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/06/20/pr22215-somalia-imf-executive-board-completes-second-and-third-reviews-of-ecf

Raballand, G. and J. Knebelman (2021) “Domestic Resource Mobilisation in Somalia”, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/121391596804622057/pdf/Domestic-Resource-Mobilization-in-Somalia.pdf

Abshir, S. et al. (2020) “Tax and the State in Somalia”, Rift Valley Institute Briefing Paper, Rift Valley Institute 2020. https://riftvalley.net/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Tax%20and%20the%20State%20in%20Somalia%20by%20Sagal%20Abshir%2C%20Khalif%20Abdirahman%20and%20Hannah%20Stogdon%20-%20RVI%20%282020%29.pdf

World Bank. (2017). “Somalia - Security and Justice Sector Public Expenditure Review” World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. : http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/644671486531571103/Somalia-Security-and-justice-sector-public-expenditure-review

Hiraal Institute (2020), “A Losing Game: Countering Al-Shabab’s Financial System”, Hiraal Institute, Mogadishu, Somalia. https://hiraalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/A-Losing-Game.pdf

Keating, M., Abshir, S., (2018), “The Politics of Security in Somalia” NYU Center on International Cooperation, New York. https://cic.nyu.edu/publications/politics-security-somalia

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), (2022) “Somalia Updated IPC and Famine Risk Analysis Technical Release 4th June 2022”, IPC, Nairobi. https://fsnau.org/downloads/Somalia-Updated-IPC-and-Famine-Risk-Analysis-Technical-Release-4-Jun-2022.pdf

Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) https://igad.int

Horn of Africa Initiative https://hoainitiative.org

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:41 Growing up in Somalia and early travels shaping the man

00:09:36 Somalia’s transition – success and challenges

00:15:54 Being Minister of Finance in Somalia – Prioritizing spending and raising revenue

00:22:00 Transparency and managing compounding crises

00:30:26 Financing security sector reform (SSR)

00:35:25 Collaboration between the federal government and the member states of Somalia

00:42:32 The State vs. Al Shabaab – governance in competition with violent extremism

00:48:46 Exiting fragility – can Somalia find a path?

00:51:57 Work-ethic and Dr. Beileh’s approach to fragility

00:58:46 Values & culture – fostering the right approach to economic growth

01:03:41 Regional collaboration in the Horn of Africa

01:09:04 Working with international institutions – from blind-spots to trust

01:12:58 Oil & gas in Somalia - avoiding the resource curse

01:16:44 A vision for Somalia in 10 years

01:23:51 Wrap-up

View Details

This is the first episode in a series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility.

We start by talking about Alexandre’s upbringing and how traveling with his parents – an adventure worthy of an Indiana Jones movie - led him to discover the wonders of different cultures. Experiences such as staying in an archeological mission in Egypt, crossing Afghanistan and Iran by car, and a road trip from Paris to Jordan sparked Alexandre’s interest in how different cultures coexist and led him to try to understand conflict. We then talk about to the relationship between the price of bananas and witchcraft in Cameroon – and we sure had questions about it!

Alexandre then shares with us how caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand the origins and dynamics of conflict, the need to differentiate between conflict and violent conflict, and how the rise in what he calls “conflicts of fragility” led to the Pathways for Peace report. The conversation also explores how actors, institutions, and structural factors can push a country towards peace or conflict, why peace is desirable, the dangers of horizontal inequality, and the importance of dignity.

And there’s so much more! Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre share many more insights into fragility, conflict, and peace.

Alexandre Marc

Website: https://www.alexandremarc.org

Twitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1

International Institute for Strategic Studies : https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marc

Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.

Editing by Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or Linkedin (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)

EPISODE RESOURCES:

United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337

World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389

Great Britain. Foreign Office. Historical Section. Cameroon. London, H. M. Stationery off, 1920. Pdf. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, www.loc.gov/item/a22000968/

Douglass C. North – Facts. NobelPrize.org. Nobel Prize Outreach AB 2022. Tue. 2 Aug 2022. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1993/north/facts/

Stewart, Frances. 2011. Horizontal Inequalities as a Cause of Conflict: A Review of CRISE Findings.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9126

Marc, Alexandre; Willman, Alys; Aslam, Ghazia; Rebosio, Michelle; Balasuriya, Kanishka. 2013. Societal Dynamics and Fragility: Engaging Societies in Responding to Fragile Situations. New frontiers of social policy. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12222

Alexandre Marc, Bruce Jones. 2021. The New Geopolitics of Fragility: Russia, China, and the Mounting Challenge for Peacebuilding. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/FP_20211015_new_geopolitics_fragility_marc_jones_v2.pdf

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Introduction

00:01:21 Indiana Jones-like childhood and the discovery of different cultures

00:04:35 Banana trade and witchcraft

00:06:58 How to see the world in a different way

00:09:08 Caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand conflict

00:12:25 What is conflict?

00:15:42 Does conflict differ across different cultures?

00:18:48 The rise of "conflicts of fragility"

00:23:57 The role of institutions in fragility and conflict

00:29:00 What is fragility? Depends on who is asking.

00:33:53 The interplay of actors, institutions, and structural factors

00:41:19 Leadership must come from inside

00:46:15 Actors have a choice - focus on structural factors that enhance dignity

00:47:55 Development aid shouldn’t be ideological

00:54:20 Why is peace desirable?

01:01:07 What people fight about, a.k.a. the arenas of contestation.

01:09:49 How do the actors, structural factors, and institutions interact in the arenas?

01:15:05 Horizontal inequality – when economic issues connect to identity issues

01:22:46 On the inequality of dignity & future episodes in the Pathways for Peace series

01:24:26 Wrap-up

View Details

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.

RESOURCES:

OECD States of Fragility Platform: http://www3.compareyourcountry.org/states-of-fragility/about/0/

States of Fragility 2020 Report: https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htm

The Crises & Fragility team in the Global Partnerships & Policies Division of the Development Cooperation Directorate (DCD) of the OECD. https://www.oecd.org/dac/conflict-fragility-resilience/

Marley, J. and H. Desai (2020), "Fragility and Agenda 2030: Navigating shocks and pressures in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 82, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/65d5cb9c-en.

Marley, J. (2020), "Peacebuilding in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 83, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d222bc0a-en.

Forsberg, E. and J. Marley (2020), "Diplomacy and peace in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 77, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6a684a4b-en.

OECD (2022) “Adding the human dimension to the OECD fragility framework”, OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.oecd.org/dac/2022-human-dimension-fragility.pdf

OECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/62d0ca31-en.

TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 Introduction

0:45 The 80s in Ireland and the military as a career

2:06 Jonathan’s 1st deployment with NATO in Kosovo and civil-military cooperation

5:45 The daily life of a peacekeeper

8:31 Peacekeeping entrepreneurship

11:25 How to build trust as a soldier and peacekeeper

15:44 What’s the difference: peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and development?

19:39 The missing operational middle: local peacebuilding vs. national development planning

23:51 Planning challenges: military vs. development

28:45 Business case for prevention

34:07 What is fragility?

39:58 Value added: States of Fragility & the OECD

44:54 Comfortable in ambiguity: the continuum of fragility

50:52 Ukraine & the price of a cup of coffee: the value of multidimensional analysis and systems thinking

57:23 How can diplomacy help in Ukraine and the role of diplomacy in development

1:03:47 Diversity of perspectives on fragility and the challenges of communication

1:08:41 The human dimension: a new addition to the States of Fragility framework

1:15:34 Wrap-up

View Details

Katherine Marshall is professor of the practice of development, conflict, and religion in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and one of the world's foremost experts on the nexus between faith, ethics, and development. In her 35 years with the World Bank, Katherine was a pioneer for women in international development and led the Bank's work in some of the world's most fragile and poor nations. She was also one of the first international development experts to work on the critical importance of religion in global development. In the first part of our conversation, we talk about Katherine’s experience as a woman as she joined the World Bank in 1971, what was then seen as new ideas about women as actors in development, the slowly dawning awareness of the importance of girls’ education, and the need to defend both the roles of women within the institution and the roles of women in development. Katherine then shares with us how she became fascinated by the topic of religion at a time development professionals rarely spoke about or thought much about it. She calls it an adventure with a large number of large blind spots. It was fascinating because it took the work and the institution of the World Bank itself into a new area of ethics, reaching into more fundamental questions about what development is and how different economic models affect people's lives. We also talk about how development and religious organizations relate to different established orthodoxies. One of the ironies Katherine mentions is the religious sounding language used to describe many aspects of the work of development institutions - people go on missions and they follow a doctrine that relies on unseen forces and invisible hands. Listen to the episode to hear Katherine discuss many more fascinating connections between religion and development. The episode was recorded on April 9th, 2021.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs: https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/people/katherine-marshall

Women, Religion and Peacebuilding - Illuminating the Unseen (2015) by Katherine Marshall https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/09/women-religion-and-peacebuilding

Global Institutions of Religion: Ancient Movers, Modern Shakers (2013) by Katherine Marshall https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/events/global-institutions-of-religion-ancient-movers-modern-shakers

The World Bank: From Reconstruction to Development to Equity (2008) by Katherine Marshall https://www.routledge.com/The-World-Bank-From-Reconstruction-to-Development-to-Equity/Marshall/p/book/9780415381321

View Details

Steen Sonne Andersen is currently the Ambassador of Denmark to Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Benin. He is based in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. An economist by training, Steen began his career working on local governance in Denmark’s poorer regions. He then worked with international development agencies in India, Nepal, Bhutan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Tanzania focusing primarily on the education sector. In the start of our conversation, Steen talks about the early days of his professional journey, when a series of urban development projects funded by the European Union in Denmark sparked his curiosity in understanding community resilience and state modernization. We then talk about the process of state building in the Sahel: Steen paints a vivid picture of fragility and conflict drivers in the region, from water scarcity and rapid population growth, to enduring poverty and violent extremism. He also outlines Denmark’s aid priorities to prevent further conflict and help stabilize the Sahel through support for effective water management infrastructure and security and justice reform. Throughout the conversation, we talk about social protection and the meaning of solidarity in the Sahel, how values shape community resilience, the social contract in post-colonial states, and the role of education in helping women and girls realize their potential. The episode was recorded on May 23rd, 2021.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

EPISODE RESOURCES

Embassy of Denmark in Burkina Faso: https://burkinafaso.um.dk/fr/ambassade-du-danemark

Danish Development Cooperation (DANIDA): https://um.dk/en/danida

The World Bank’s Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program

Rebekka Grun, Mira Saidi, and Paul M. Bisca. 2020. “Adapting Social Safety Net Operations to Insecurity in the Sahel.” SASSP Operational and Policy Note Series, Note 2. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Francis Fukuyama. 2011. The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Alexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka. 2015.The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank; and Agence Française de Développement.

View Details

Koen Davidse is the World Bank Group’s Executive Director from the Netherlands since 2018. He represents a group of countries that also includes Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Ukraine. Previously, he served as the Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Mali and held senior positions in the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the beginning of our conversation, Koen shares his reasons for choosing a career in diplomacy and development, with stints in India, Sudan, Mali, and also at the World Bank and UN. We then talk about why security sector reform (SSR) that builds effective but also affordable militaries, police, and justice institutions is essential to make progress on economic development in fragile states. Next, we delve deeper into his work in Sudan and Mali. We discuss the challenges of being an honest broker in the implementation of the peace agreement leading to South Sudan’s independence in 2011 and what it’s like to lead a peacekeeping mission aiming to bring stability in Mali. Throughout the episode, Koen shares his insights about why we need peace entrepreneurs to make lasting change, what it takes to achieve better coordination between peace, development, and humanitarian actors, and how to put vulnerable people at the center of global efforts to help fragile states. This episode was recorded on June 18, 2021.

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/

Website: https://f-world.org

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Paul Collier, 2007. “The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It.” New York: Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-bottom-billion-9780195311457?cc=us⟨=en&#
Security and Development in Fragile States: The Netherlands Strategy (2008-2011) https://www.government.nl/binaries/government/documents/reports/2011/12/23/strategy-setting-out-the-principles-governing-dutch-policy-on-fragile-states-for-2008-2011/english-version-fs-strategy-02-03-2009.pdf
United Nations, 2006. Delivering as One: Report of the Secretary-General’s High Level Panel. New York: United Nations https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/Delivering-as-One.pdf
New Deal for Fragile States (2011), https://www.pbsbdialogue.org/en/new-deal/about-new-deal/
World Bank. “World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development.” Washington, DC: World Bank https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389
Bernard Harborne, William Dorotinsky, and Paul M. Bisca (eds). “Securing Development: Public Finance and the Security Sector.” Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25138
Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005) https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/SD_060000_The%20Comprehensive%20Peace%20Agreement.pdf
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission In Mali (MINUSMA), https://minusma.unmissions.org/en
Calin Trenkov-Vermuth and Paul M. Bisca. 2021. “Global Fragility Act: A Chance to Reshape International Security Assistance?” Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/01/global-fragility-act-chance-reshape-international-security-assistance
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2020. “Visualizing the P in the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU45k07s70I

View Details

Dr. Shanta Devarajan is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches development economics. Previously, Shanta worked for nearly three decades at the World Bank, where he was the Senior Director for Development Economics (DEC) and served as acting Chief Economist. This episode starts with Shanta’s account of his early work on indicators to measure state fragility at the World Bank, and how his understanding of fragility has evolved over time. We then explore how country rankings are linked to aid allocations, and why venture capital is a better model to help countries escape the fragility trap than current practices. We also discuss how international financial institutions navigate the relationship with governments. Reflecting on his work prior to the Arab Spring, Shanta argues that development financing institutions should use knowledge and data to build greater trust with citizens – their ultimate clients. We then get more technical and discuss how taxation in oil-rich countries like South Sudan can promote solidarity, how conflict can shape government decisions on infrastructure development, and the role of macroeconomic policy in fragile states. This episode was recorded on April 14, 2021.

Shanta’s Blog ‘Future Development’ at The Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/

EPISODE RESOURCES:

Andrimihaja, Cinyabuguma, and Devarajan (2011) Avoiding the Fragility Trap in Africa - https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/3652/wps5884.pdf?sequence=1
World Bank (2011) World Development Report 2011: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389
World Happiness Report, Gallup: https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2021/
USIP coverage and analysis of South Sudan: https://www.usip.org/programs/independence-south-sudan
Devarajan and Giugale (2013). The Case for Direct Transfers of Resource Revenues in Africa https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/direct-dividend-payments.pdf
Banerjee (2016) Aadhaar: Digital Inclusion and Public Services in India
- https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/655801461250682317-0050022016/original/WDR16BPAadhaarPaperBanerjee.pdf
Buller et al. (2018) A mixed-method review of cash transfers and intimate partner violence in low and middle-income countries
- https://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/938-a-mixed-method-review-of-cash-transfers-and-intimate-partner-violence-in-low-and.html
World Bank CPIA https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/datatopics/cpia

View Details

Sara Noshadi is an expert on the reconstruction of cultural heritage and creative economies in war-torn countries. She has developed and led national programs promoting unity and reconciliation through culture in Iraq after the fall of the Islamic State (2017), as well as in Afghanistan. Originally from Iran, Sara was trained as an anthropologist at the University of Tehran and worked at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris. In this episode, Sara tells the story of how a trip to post-civil war Tajikistan led her to focus on culture as a force for solidarity and peace. We discuss why it is so difficult to work on this agenda in fragile and conflict-affected states, where typical economic development programs fail to take into account the complex role of culture in shaping project outcomes. Sara also shares her views on how using culture as a lens can help make urban planning or mining projects more effective, and why conflict-affected states would benefit from 30 year-long national cultural programs disconnected from donor funding cycles. Lastly, we talk about how cultural programming can help children and youth imagine a different future for themselves and new shared fictions for their countries. Sara is speaking in a personal capacity and her views do not represent the institutions or organizations that she is professionally affiliated with. The episode was recorded on May 19, 2021.

Episode Resources

World Bank - World Development Report 2011: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389
World Bank CPIA https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/datatopics/cpia
Sara Noshadi - Keeping history alive: safeguarding cultural heritage in post-conflict Afghanistan - https://books.google.se/books?id=mGx5DAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=sv&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false
UNESCO Video of the Minaret of Jam - The Minaret and Archaeological Remains of Jam, in Afghanistan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkM5JNZJ4BY
Afghanistan's Citizens' Charter Program: Empowering Communities for Better Services - https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2020/10/20/afghanistans-citizens-charter-program-empowering-communities-for-better-services
Debate on the inclusion of ethnicity on the Afghan Identity Cards (Taskira) https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2018-07-19/afghanistan-distribution-of-controversial-electronic-identity-cards-launched/

View Details

Scott Guggenheim, an anthropologist by training, is one of the originators of community driven development (CDD). He has worked for the World Bank for over 30 years and served as a senior advisor to the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani. In this episode, Scott shares how his interest in anthropology started during a 6-month trip to Mexico as a 12-year old, and how an honest but controversial answer about the Vietnam War got him his first job at the World Bank. We then talk about how CDD started in Indonesia facilitated by the 1998 East Asia financial crisis, and how it was possible to build a national program driven by local community insights. We also discuss the importance of interdisciplinary work for development and the role of crises in driving innovation. In the second half of the conversation, we turn to Afghanistan. Scott shares insights gained during his time inside the presidential palace in Kabul, and his views on the existential challenges the country faces. We also talk about what could shift the path Afghanistan has been on for nearly half a century. The episode was recorded on April 11, 2021.

EPISODE RESOURCES

Community Development

Eric Wolf (1957) Closed Corporate Peasant Communities in Mesoamerica and Central Java. Southwestern Journal fo Anthropology v 13. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/soutjanth.13.1.3629154
Wong and Guggenheim (2018) Community Driven Development Myths and Realitites https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/677351525887961626/pdf/WPS8435.pdf
World Values Survey https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp
Ben Bernanke (2013) Creating Resilient Communities (speech)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130412a.htm
Raghuram Rajan (2019) The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind https://www.amazon.com/Third-Pillar-Markets-Community-Behind/dp/0525558314

Indonesia

Background on Indonesia - Fall of Suharto Government 1998 https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/21/world/fall-suharto-overview-suharto-besieged-steps-down-after-32-year-rule-indonesia.html
Cernea and Guggenheim (1999) The Economics of Involuntary Settlement. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/790851468773055283/pdf/multi-page.pdf
Scott Guggenheim et al. (2004). Indonesia's Kecamatan Development Program: A Large-Scale Use of Community Development to Reduce Poverty https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/252411468753369732/pdf/307790IND0KDP0cty0devt01see0also0307591.pdf
Benjamin Olken (2005) Corruption and the costs of redistribution: Micro evidence from Indonesia https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/gov2126/files/olken_indonesia_0.pdf
Bannerjee and Olken et al (2021) Food vs. Food Stamps: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia https://economics.mit.edu/files/21317

On the Poverty Line

A visualization of the poverty line in India https://onehundredhomes.in
How to measure poverty and define the poverty line: Haughton (2009) A handbook on poverty and inequality. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11985
Feminist Economics http://www.feministeconomics.net/highlights/

On Albert Hirshman

The Economist Obituary: https://www.economist.com/business/2012/12/22/exit-albert-hirschman
David Ellerman (2001). Hirschmanian Themes of Social Learning and Change https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/429621468739155797/pdf/multi0page.pdf

Afghanistan

World Bank (2021). Afghanistan Risk and Resilience Assessment https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/53589198fdb2c367bfa07ee06d9bd7c1-0310012021/original/Afghanistan-Risk-and-Resilient-Assessment.pdf
Guggenheim and Farahi (2020) Pathways for Post-Peace Development in Afghanistan https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/pathways-post-peace-development-afghanistan
Thomas Barfield (2012) Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History https://www.amazon.com/Afghanistan-Cultural-Political-Princeton-Politics/dp/0691154414
Barnett Rubin (2020) Afghanistan: What Everyone Needs to Know https://www.amazon.com/Afghanistan-What-Everyone-Needs-Know®/dp/0190496649
Kate Clark (2020) The Cost of Support to Afghanistan:Considering inequality, poverty and lack of democracy through the ‘rentier state’ lens https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/20200528-Rentier-1.pdf
UNDP (2020). Human Development Indicators for Afghanistan http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/AFG.pdf

F-World: The Fragility Podcast: Recent Episodes

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, Johan Bjurman Bergman