WatchCharts Podcast: Recent Episodes
WatchCharts
Hamza, Charles, and John take turns hanging out and shooting the breeze on watches, with a data-driven focus on the pre-owned market.
It's the start of the year, and Hamza and Charles answer questions received via Instagram: we cover some personal preferences, practical advice, market analysis and some theoretical considerations. If you'd like your own questions addressed in a future episode or otherwise have feedback to share, please reach out! You can find us on the web, Instagram, YouTube or by email at contact@watchcharts.com.
0:00 Intro
1:29 Personal picks for a one watch collection (@r7maid)
4:42 Sleeper hits (@chrono__1)
9:23 The best “investment” watch with a $10,000 budget (@riccardo_bolognesi)
14:08 Value retention of quartz vs automatic movements (@connor_e_chang)
18:10 The freshness of WatchCharts data (@hanlon84)
19:57 Publishing the average wait time at an AD (@thomashemels)
22:49 The best performing Rolex reference over the past three years (@etramontana90)
25:24 When a secondary market rebound is expected (@shwanie08)
29:17 The potential for Panerai prices to go up in the future (@jorgito_ramos and @be_fred.do)
35:15 Impact of dropping secondary prices on availability at retail (@analoguestills)
37:03 Collection-level indexes on WatchCharts for Patek model collections (@4ur8fmv9)
39:01 The possibility of Rolex dropping below retail on the secondary market (@matteopisoni88)
39:57 Prices for Richard Mille on WatchCharts (@elvinsuleyman)
40:32 Is the Tudor hype over? (@timurengin1)
46:29 How much control brands have over keeping demand high(@famous.davey)
52:15 Learning about the market and finding watches for one’s personal collection at good prices (@muzzamiltayyab)
57:53 How watch prices are determined (@martinc_valdez1)
This episode was recorded on 1/18/23.
This crossover episode between watches and cars features Ben Wilson, former head of product at UK-based online car retailer Cazoo. Ben is an expert on the used car market, and was involved in building one of the most sophisticated used car pricing and valuation services in the UK. In this conversation, we discuss the parallels between the car world and the watch world, and the challenges (both technical and practical) of building large-scale automated systems to understand fragmented and unstructured markets.
Show notes and timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
5:43 Price transparency parallels between used cars and watches
15:48 Valuation vs pricing: how to objectively assess condition, and other considerations
23:35 Sold prices vs listed prices
28:43 The historical necessity of gut feel, and how to supplant it
36:31 Differences in primary and secondary market dynamics for the same brands
38:41 The quartz crisis and electric cars
44:52 Subscriptions for car features
53:43 Certified pre-owned
1:04:31 The tension between being a market observer and participant
1:13:38 What the future holds for used cars and watches
This episode was recorded on 12/12/22.
Ben Wilson | LinkedIn
0:00 The Rolex press release
3:40 Our quick takes: how could Rolex have set up a CPO program, and how did they actually set it up? Is it more expensive? Who are the likely customers?
14:20 Is Rolex CPO worth the premium (for its intended customer)?
20:05 Will this stabilize the secondary market?
24:18 Where will the inventory come from?
26:45 How far back will they go for watches considered eligible for the program?
30:26 Will it be possible to make an online purchase?
31:13 How will this impact pre-owned prices?
34:12 Will Rolex watchmakers be checking pre-owned watches instead of making new ones?
38:03 Will it be more or less difficult to get your desired watch?
42:08 How will the listings be priced?
44:25 The future of Rolex CPO
This episode was recorded on 12/3/22.
0:00 Intro & wrist check
4:18 Reader question from Instagram (@joytijo): "Is there any Tudor that holds or appreciates in value?"
13:50 Your total watch budget
18:56 The opportunity cost of a pink dial Rolex OP 36
22:32 Saving for the (right) goal
26:09 One expensive watch or many cheaper watches?
33:26 Why buy one, and more than one
44:30 Overhead
53:03 Counterfactuals
55:28 Repair stories
This episode was recorded on 11/15/22.
0:00 Intro and watches on our minds: picks from Jaeger-LeCoultre
7:44 Reader question: What is the future for buying Rolex watches from an AD? (@c_mitch80 on Instagram)
15:13 What is hype when it comes to watches?
23:03 Why do hype watches all come from the same handful of brands?
25:31 Distinguishing hype from reality
29:17 Treating hype as an invitation
32:34 What do you do when the watch you love is hyped?
41:40 Lessons learned from deciding to act (or not) based on hype
45:18 Hyping up oneself, or “internal” hype
47:46 Watch purchases that transcend hype
This episode was recorded on 10/28/22.
0:00 Intro (shocker: without a wrist check) and awards selection criteria
4:31 Our picks for best value: Speedmaster Professional vs Aqua Terra Annual Calendar
16:25 Most mechanically interesting: Grand Seiko Omiwatari SBGY007 vs two-tone Frederique Constant Highlife Perpetual Calendar (Honorary mention: Frederique Constant Slimline Monolithic)
25:38 Deep dive on the Spring Drive and Monolithic movements
42:23 Most iconic: Omega Speedmaster “Silver Snoopy Award” vs Tudor Black Bay Ceramic (Honorary mention: Omega Speedmaster “Silver Snoopy Award” from 2015)
59:00 Most unique: Jaeger LeCoultre Reverso Duoface vs Grand Seiko SBGA011
1:15 Most original: Ming 17.01 vs Bulgari Octo Solotempo
This episode was recorded on 10/7/22.
0:00 Intro and wrist check
2:26 Take the survey: theidealwatchsizesurvey.com
3:24 How we ended up with the current financialization of watches
11:36 Watch "investments": Benjamin Graham's take
21:25 Pausing for reflections on market evolution
27:20 The role of WatchCharts
30:44 Optimization functions
40:32 Paying for an education
49:57 Confirmation bias
54:58 The future of the financialization of watches
This episode was recorded on 9/11/22.
0:00 Intro and reader question from Instagram: “What about ongoing [watch maintenance] costs?” (by @vintageseiko)
8:09 Wrist check
11:36 Defining a grail watch
18:14 Are grail watches necessary? Why do they matter?
23:57: Zeno’s paradox: desiring what’s just out of reach
27:22 Schrödinger’s grail: now that you’ve acquired it, is it actually a grail?
36:16 The interplay of cost, availability, quality, and sentimental value
44:01 Emotional connections to physical objects
48:00 Personal grails in the future
This episode was recorded on 8/30/22.
0:00 Intro and wrist check
6:43 Mark’s survey: HSNY Lecture - The Ideal Watch Size: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNRt9LBx5lo
14:00 WatchCharts’ quick repeat survey from our Instagram audience
18:55 Differences in survey audiences
21:02 Personal takes on watch sizes: vintage, Grand Seiko, Kurono Tokyo, Naoya Hida, Moser
26:19 Collector journeys and evolution of case size preferences towards smaller sizes
28:49 Evolution of product design and customers’ response since the 90s to case size
32:57 Haute horologerie case size trends: FP Journe, Greubel Forsey, MB&F, others
34:05 Market data by price point and case size
37:26 Why don’t high-end brands make more thin watches: complications, assembly, repair cost, opportunity cost of repairs
42:05 The challenges of reusing movements for multiple case sizes
43:35: Case thickness and the calendar watch face-off: Patek Philippe Nautilus ref. 5712/1A vs Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Control Calendar Chronograph ref. Q413812J
(The Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Control Calendar Chronograph ref. Q413812J is incorrectly referred to as an annual calendar watch in this episode. It is actually a complete calendar watch. We regret the error.)
48:04 The importance of trying on watches in person
49:04 Watches at The Armoury
50:41 Does the market meet the need for our case size preferences?
54:39 Bigger dials for complication legibility, including at Patek Philippe
56:09 V2 of Mark’s survey: new questions to add
56:58 The importance of collector enthusiasm in assigning value to a watch
1:04:34 The rise of smartwatches
1:06:54 Japanese quartz watches
1:07:50 Apple Watch Sizes (first aborted ending)
1:11:23 Small minute repeaters (second aborted ending)
1:13:23 Buying with a sense of FOMO
This episode was recorded on 8/9/22, and features special guest Mark Cho.
0:00 Intro and wrist check
6:11 Reader comment from Instagram: “You'd think this one would hold its value better. The way pre owned prices work is mind boggling. It's literally all about Rolex. How boring!” (by @words_and_watches)
13:18 Market update: have we found the bottom yet?
20:33 Why does WatchCharts exist? The watch enthusiasts’ answer
36:22 Update on the market index: overall, Vacheron Constantin, A. Lange & Sohne
48:42 Responding to feedback on WatchCharts prices: moving average, sold and asking prices
This episode was recorded on 7/29/22.
0:00 Intro & Wristcheck
5:35 Reader Question from Instagram - Do you see Rolex prices going back to retail on the second hand market? (by @bryan7to)
13:58 Personal collecting experiences with Rolex and Omega
19:12 Assessing retail prices for comparable Rolex, Omega, and Tudor references
30:07 Value retention outlook in the modern era
36:58 The importance of product quality and design continuity
43:43 Collaborations: good or bad idea?
47:05 Speedmasters: from $260 to $70,000 and beyond
55:45 Attempting to assess value for money at retail prices for Rolex, Omega, and Tudor
1:05:16 Can these brands still be cross-shopped?
This episode was recorded on 7/1/22.
0:00 Intro & Wristcheck
3:35 Question from Instagram: Did the release of the moonSwatch have any impact on Omega Speedmasters prices?
9:21 Can a quartz watch be considered a luxury watch?
19:40 Value comparison: Casio F91W vs Invicta diver
22:26 Value comparison: Cartier Tank Must ‘Solarbeat’ vs Tudor Black Bay 58
29:21 Value comparison: FP Journe Elegante vs A Lange & Sohne Saxonia Thin
36:50 Value comparison: Patek Philippe 5212A vs Cartier Maillon de Cartier
41:54 What lies ahead for luxury quartz
This episode was recorded on 6/17/22.
0:00 Intro & wrist check
2:59 Question from Instagram: Is the watch market headed for a correction? If so, which brands and models will be affected?
8:01 Two-tone: what do people think when they think of two-tone watches?
13:45 The market for brand new two-tone watches
19:00 Our data for two-tone watches in the pre-owned market
24:32 Explaining the discrepancies between new and pre-owned markets for two-tone
27:24 The intersection of two-tone and luxury
39:41 Some personal two-tone picks
This episode was recorded on 6/4/22.
0:00 Intro & wrist check
4:59 Windup Watch Fair San Francisco debrief
14:25 Question from Instagram: Hesalite or sapphire Speedmaster Professional
24:08 Variations in pricing: Vacheron Constantin Overseas three-handers
29:30 Blue dial fever in the data: Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A
37:11 Variations in pricing: Overseas and Nautilus complications
49:41 Variations in pricing: Omega Seamaster Diver 300 dial colors
52:43 Audemars Piguet Royal Oak three-handers and complications
This episode was recorded on 4/29/22.
0:00 Intro & wrist check
3:55 Question from Instagram - What will happen to the market for the Air-King? Post here: https://www.instagram.com/p/Cb-VZ8SrBel/
11:53 Is the market down, and if so, by how much and why?
12:21 Overall Market Index
15:01 Brand Indexes
18:13 Gap between real and perceived changes in market prices
23:30 The invasion of Ukraine
25:10 Fog City Vintage - Post here: https://www.instagram.com/p/CbfoXAiJkOW/
28:47 Crossover with crypto
31:38 Current global covid impact
32:55 Watches for which prices have actually dropped
This episode was recorded on 4/14/22.
0:00 Intro & Wristcheck
5:35 Question from Instagram - Which Daytona would you pick for the price?
11:57 Where is the value in the market: the definition of value
22:53 Where is the value in the market: starting out at the bottom of the price range
28:15 Where is the value in the market: watches in the $5,000 - $10,000 price range
35:14 Where is the market today, and is it easy to find value?
50:43 Examples of value: Bulgari Solotempo
56:03 Examples of value: Grand Seiko SBGW231
1:08:09 Examples of value: rapid round (deVille’s, Reverso’s, Khaki King’s, PRX’s)
This episode was recorded on 3/18/22.