Gary K: Recent Episodes
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SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/another-whipsaw-week-in-review-08-07-2026–73637427
SpaceX – 911.5 million shares get unlocked today which is 140% of the public float. Of course, that can be an issue. But may we state that the news is already known. But we will repeat what we have said on day one whether the stock was going up for those first couple of days or coming down ever since…valuations matter. Sometimes they matter in the long run and sometimes they matter in the short run. You must also understand there was precedent for this action. There is a laundry list of IPO’s going back the past couple of years that were hyped and touted, not as much as SpaceX, but much. Most all opened up hot and most all have crumbled because of…valuation. No edge here. No man’s land. They can bounce it or drop it more. We really believed the bankers would do everything possible to defend the IPO price but to no avail. We do believe growth will be strong going forward. In fact, Elon said that he believes they will have $1 trillion of revenues by 2030, moving that date up from 2031. That is one heady prediction.
We continue to be wary of the semiconductor/artificial intelligence trade for a simple technical reason. Most of them are trading below the all important 50 day moving average if not worse. That’s the technical part of it. Let’s add in how very over-owned and over-leveraged they have become but also we question have numbers peaked? This can change and will keep you informed. A good lesson is to not leverage 400% on higher beta names.
Just wondering if gold and to a lesser extent, silver turned the corner yesterday. Gold did gap up above the 50 day moving average for the first time in a long while. Jury is still out.
Crypto remains crapto. Just backing and filling near the bear market lows. It had better not break the lows of the past 9 weeks. Our constant warnings on Microstrategy prove it is no “Strategy” to leverage one item that has no sales, no earnings, no products or services. It is also stunning to watch the man running the show act so nonchalantly as the stock price craters.
NVIDIA acts like a meme stock both up and down and right now, up. It’s good being friends with Elon. The latest announcement really juiced this name back up.
New highs in a couple of big indices. Not everything but one can’t complain about new highs for a couple of big indices. Just keep in mind that in the Dow, a select high priced few names continue to do the heavy lifting.
Watch yields! Seriously! Watch them yields.
So…do we have a deal? Still don’t know but “everything is great!”
The Mets? Waaaah! But we can always fall back on the Knicks are still the champ. That is your sports part of this report.
Rush at Madison Square Garden…fabulous. Will see them a few more times on tour. That is your music part of this report.
The elections. Yes those primary elections. Sorry to tell you but look no further than the other party on why so many, and we don’t say this lightly, so many communists are winning their primaries. If the other party did their job, it would be a lot tougher. Unfortunately, the other party practices a decent amount of socialism themselves. All one has to do is take out a pen and paper and list with no bias what we are talking about.
Listen Here – https://www.spreaker.com/episode/a-lot-of-earnings-07-30-2026-w-adam-sarhan–73265136
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/massive-rotation-continues-07-28-2026–73222207
Listen Here: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-war-footing-week-in-review-06-13-2025–66552902
At 125 pm, the market turned down because:
At 125 pm, oil prices went vertical.
Hey a China deal. Sorry. Less than meets the eye.
55% tariffs on China? That’s a tax hike on us.
Megacap tech…distribution? Jury still out.
SEMIS keep on keeping on.
TSLA crumbles. TSLA comes back as nice nice again.
OILS coming on.
Are HOMEBUILDERS about to turn?
BIG BANKS close to next move.
Listen Here: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/things-change-fast-11-15-2024-w-adam-sarhan–62760030
Source: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/repercussions-of-the-election-11-14-2024–62743430
We have been saying for weeks that Trump was going to win the election. We cannot begin to tell you how many disagreed. For us, it was just about how much. We are even stunned by the numbers.
We thought close polls said it all. Past elections had Trump down quite the few points.
We thought campaigning on higher taxes a mistake.
We thought the record on immigration and inflation was a big anchor.
Saying you would not change a thing…mistake.
Vance versus Walz. Filet mignon versus spam. Nothing against spam!
She blew off Shapiro because of the Jew thing. Please do not insult our intelligence by telling us otherwise.
We thought calling people Nazis, fascists and racists pissed them off. Comparing the MSG rally to the Nazi rally…are you kidding?
We thought putting up a candidate that could hardly poll 1% in a primary was a mistake.
Flip flopping on all your beliefs while telling everyone your values haven’t changed? Hmmm!
We thought keeping quiet on crime, students threatened on campus and playing both sides on the Middle East…mistake!
We thought and stated on radio each and every day, they forgot it was WE THE PEOPLE. All their talk was about what government will do next.
The big story is not the states Trump was supposed to win but how much he lost in states like Illinois and New Jersey. The bluest of blue moved big time.
The next big story is that this morning, they are blaming racism for the loss. Either heads are in the sand or they don’t get it.
They lost big time to Trump, a man with a lot of baggage who just last week stated he should have never left and he did not lose the last election. Instead of learning from losing to such a candidate, they are doubling down on stupid.
If Elon is serious about the size of government, the effectiveness of government, the efficiency of government, I am in.
We wish Bernie Marcus was alive to see this.
They told us campaign finance reform would take money out of politics. Approximately $16 billion will be spent on this election with unimaginable funds coming from a select few.
They told us the money printing would only last a short while. They printed to $9 trillion.
They told us to not ever worry about the debt ceiling and that things were under control. $36 trillion later.
They told us Obamacare would lower premiums even though they were adding many as well as getting rid of pre-existing. How’s your premiums? Go look up Jonathan Gruber.
In 16, he told us it was a gimmee to lower debt and deficits and then went on to add a massive amount of spending.
In 20-24, we were told inflation was transitory. How’s that going?
In 20-24, we were told the border was secure. How’s that going?
In 20-24, we were told they cut the deficit. How’s that going?
In fact, the championship belt has been passed from one to another starting in the year 2000 leading to the last guy who just bowed out who signed the “Fiscal Responsibility Act in 2023!” Yes, they called it that. Since, over $4 trillion has been added to our debt. They are laughing their a– off at us. Leading into the election, they ran a $487 billion deficit last month to goose the economy. (Again, not a typo!) They have been averaging $300 billion+/month.
We repeat our mantra. WE HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE OPTIMISTIC ON US! Us…the 150 million of us that go to work every day to do better for ourselves and our families…our great companies with their technological advancements and medical breakthroughs…the students studying their butts off in order to move into the work force and do great things.
But the other side of the mantra. WE HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THEM. Them? Running trillions of deficits. Them? Picking and choosing. Them ? Creating a blob in where in the year 2000, federal spending was $1.8 trillion. In 2019, $4.4 trillion and now, fast tracking to $7 trillion with $2-3 trillion deficits.
We are nothing more than their marks and the biggest slush fund in history and it is going to get worse. They just don’t give a — while they all tell us what they are going to do for us.
Have a great election day.
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/pre-election-week-in-review-11-01-2024–62585478
MELI with big downgrade…down $100…very good sell recently…took small draw down. Whew!
COST most important retailer teasing breaking the 50 day.
Both META and SPOT pullback as NASDAQ/NDX weak but two of the strongest. But if things worsen…
UNH up $12 helping DOW as it seems HUM loss is their gain. HUM stock has crashed. The DOW outperforming other big indices right now.
Every time it seems big financials about to gag…they hold up. This morning another case in point. Nothing to do but must recognize important areas holding or breaking. If the financials can get going…
Bouncing the semi equipment makers after trashed again yesterday…nothing to do.
NKE…yikes…and those numbers were terrible.
NVDA touched 50 day early. A clean break and…
OILS strong…OIL PRICES…MIDEAST.
TSLA down $15…giveth and taketh…we have specifically told you it is just a tough stock to play right now.
CRM better in DOW…upgrade…has been shaping up.
TSLA down $11…missed delivery numbers…too wicked, too wide and loose.
For those that are into big oil, XOM continues to separate from the rest on relative strength. OIL PRICES are firmer but is this just fleeting from the middle east events?
Very focused on NVDA at the 50 day. Nothing to do as it failed recent move but that 50 day important to hold near term.
Those NKE numbers were real crap.
3.821%…that is the recent high of the 10 year yield…a move above would be first higher low and will be vital to watch as the fed drops all pretense of caring about inflation. Hmmmm!
Holy s–t. That will be the 1st and only time we use that word here. CHINA stocks again. Up 5% and in some cases, 10%. So the redwoods have the Eiffel Tower on top of them that have the Seattle Space Needle on top of the tower. This is not meme stocks. This is the 2nd largest country in GDP. This tells you just how much the government is injecting. FUTU up 100% in 9 days.
Climactic runs usually come AFTER a long bull market that goes vertical. This move has gone vertical from the get go of the move. The reversal 2 days ago was just a nothing. If this goes climactic near term, there will be a great shorting opportunity but it would be an intraday play because who wants to wake up to the next morning’s move. Today is another opportunity for this. Not predicting. Just outlining.
DOW down 100+. NDX not even 0.2% but them semis ugly yesterday and some big names like AAPL, MSFT and others really came in. We are grateful that META and SPOT performed yesterday in the face of distribution but today is another day.
OIL up another $2 and must wonder about Iran’s oil platforms. We think the market may be considering that outcome. GLD small pullback. S&P pulling back some more this morning. YIELDS up a wee bit.
Fewer and fewer working. More and more in trouble. Worst stuff (our left screen) worsening.
So far, not a biggie. WE ARE FOCUSED ON THE STRENGTH AS THEY PULL BACK. We’ll be watching support/moving average areas. In other cases like the utility/AI stuff like CEG, NRG, VST…may be coming out of flag patterns…an outlier.
NKE coughs one up. Been in bear for a while. HUM crashed yesterday and down a whopping $60 pre market affecting other managed care. Important UNH in the DOW goes the other way up $7 pre-market…guess they benefit from other’s misery. DOW would be worse if not for UNH.
WOW to CHINA!
Source: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/week-in-review-09-13-2024-w-adam-sarhan–61496166
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-crazed-2-weeks-in-review-08-16-2024–61056860
Source: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/week-in-review-08-09-2024-w-adam-sarhan–60973566
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/behind-the-curve-again-week-in-review-08-02-2024–60905002
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/yellen-s-78-trillion-nightmare-07-29-2024–60852268
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-nut-house-week-in-review-07-19-2024–60745645
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-strong-market-week-in-review-07-12-2024–60676382
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-shortened-week-in-review-07-05-2024–60612973
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-debated-week-in-review-06-28-2024–60542807
Source https://www.spreaker.com/episode/3-important-questions-other-important-lessons-06-18-2024-w-adam-sarhan–60428408
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-very-mushy-week-in-review-06-14-2024–60389612
A Closer Look At Inflation:
The weaker-than-expected CPI number was bullish because it gave the Fed some room to cut rates, when appropriate.
If you dive deeper, CPI was 2.5% higher than last year, but significantly higher than where it was before Covid.
Someone on X (twtr) posted the following:
“While CPI inflation is at 3.3%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities:
1. Car Insurance Inflation: 20.3%
2. Transportation Inflation: 10.5%
3. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.2%
4. Car Repair Inflation: 7.2%
5. Electricity Inflation: 5.9%
6. Homeowner Inflation: 5.7%
7. Rent Inflation: 5.3%
8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.0%
Inflation has been above 3% for 38 consecutive months now. Inflation data continues to build on multiple years of already inflated prices. Compounding inflation is destroying consumer confidence as over 50% of US adults believe we are in a recession.”
Here’s a chart:
Source: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/week-in-review-05-24-2024-w-adam-sarhan–60165356
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-almost-40-000-dow-week-in-review-05-17-2024–60076767
Source: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/where-s-the-volume-05-10-2024-w-adam-sarhan–59971581
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/quiet-but-watch-them-yields-05-07-2024–59906794
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/episode/just-a-wild-week-in-review-05-03-2024–59804493
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10863617/ie-08-04-2023-not-the-greatest-week-in-r
And we quote from the main man himself after this nightmare of a deal was done:
“A record $1.7 trillion I already cut in the 1st 2 years in office!”
“We are now on a much more fiscally responsible course than the one I inherited when I took office 4 years ago!” (4 years ago?)
“American people got what they needed!”
“Cutting and bringing deficits down at the same time!”
“Over the next 10 years, the deficit will be cut by $1 trillion!”
On a $ scale, we have never seen such bs spewed and with a straight face…with the numbers we all know staring us in the face. They know they are lying. They know we know they are lying…but they don’t give a crap. We do not need to go further. It is done. Headed to $50 trillion with $1-2 trillion yearly deficits with the first $1 trillion going towards interest. Their hope is we are now going back to our daily routines. They are right. They have perfected their con. They have perfected their craft. Both sides! Most all complicit. The already gargantuan size of government is now supersized.
Federal spending in billions of dollars:
2001- $1,862.8
2005- $2,472
2009- $3,517.7
2014- $3,506.3
2019- $4,447
2020 started the covid spending years. Covid necessitated a major increase but since, spending should be dropping like a stone. Instead:
Joe Biden’s latest proposal? Approximately $6.8 trillion. Our rusty abacus states that this is over a 50% increase in the size of government from 2019 and higher than the 2020 covid spending…a gargantuan move to solidify power in a place called DC.
And oh yea, that $2.3 trillion increase comes with a $2 trillion deficit. This, from a man who continues to stand in front of the camera to tell us how well he has done with debt and deficits and that his new package will lower both. He also states he is actually lowering spending. This is almost as bad as the lie that he cut child poverty in half because of a tax credit.
Peeps, the greatest con in history continues. We could only get here with the help of all in DC. There are no innocents. The great con is that we must raise the debt ceiling because it is money already spent. Yeah…money already spent that they know they don’t have. Yeah…that’s the ticket. The president is trying to tell us cutting a few pennies from this gargantuan number will take food off the table and cut welfare. Again, the greatest of cons. Telling us more debt is what we need. Again, the greatest of cons. Ratings services, economists and the treasury secretary telling us the answer is more debt. The people we are all supposed to depend upon to defend us against this debt nightmare are on the opposite side of economics 101. Feel better now?.
We only wish they were being asked about these hard dollar numbers. Not sure they would last 1 minute with our questions about the hard dollars and the lies being spewed about it. It is a guarantee that we are headed to $50 trillion of debt. It is a guarantee that we are headed over $1 trillion of our tax dollars every year going towards interest. It is a guarantee that this will eventually hit a painful wall. It is a guarantee that they will just all blame each other. It is a guarantee that we will be the victims as one by one, they retire to their cushy lairs after spending us into oblivion.
It’s good to see some on the right finally upset about spending and debt but where were they when they were in power? The last guy who told us it would be easy to cut deficits down to zero came in and raised spending markedly himself. Art of the deal anyone?
We must repeat. This president is trying to increase the size of government by over 50% from the year before covid with a $2 trillion deficit while he pats himself on the back telling us how great he has been with deficits and spending. Yup!
THEM REGIONAL BANKS
THEM REGIONAL BANKS
THEM REGIONAL BANKS
THEM REGIONAL BANKS
THIS AINT OVER
SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10863617/ie-5-02-23
This is nothing to laugh about but we have kinda laughed how the powers that be keep telling us the banking system is sound. The same people that told us there was no inflation…the same people that told us inflation was transitory and some of the same people that far back in 07 told us subprime was contained and the housing market was in great shape…are now telling us the banking system is fine…while 3 banks are bye bye, while they had to backstop all deposits even though they have not nearly enough cake to backstop and had to broker bailouts from the biggies. More printing anyone? Of course, isn’t it good news that JP MORGAN has saved the day again and now has 17% of all deposits?
We have had one mantra when it comes to the banks. We have stated it on our tv hits as well as our daily national radio show. “JUST WATCH THE STOCKS!” The stock price will tell all.
As we write this, regional bank etf (KRE) has now broken down again out of bearish flags into BEAR MARKET LOW GROUND. A bunch of regional bank stocks are again imploding with quite the few stopped trading.
THIS AIN’T OVER! Wish we had better news. JUST WATCH THE STOCKS. The same people that caused all this are still running the show. What stupidity are they going to invent next?
Everything is just fine. The banking system is sound. Janet Yellen, one of the three culprits along with Bernanke and to the biggest extent, Powell, says so. If the banking system is just fine:
How and why did a couple of biggies go under?
Why have just about all financial stocks, for lack of a better word, crashed in recent weeks? Emphasis is on the regionals.
After getting a $30 billion bail out by 11 large banks, why did First Republic Bank drop 33% the next day?
After getting a $54 billion bail out (not a typo), why has there been a rush and we mean rush to have Credit Suisse get bought in some way, shape or form by UBS this weekend before markets open on Monday? Oh yeah…with government guarantees…meaning tax payer guarantees.
Why are we being told that senior White House officials are talking with the great Warren Buffett?
Maybe our rusty abacus is not working but why are we hearing banks tapped the fed (the tax payer) in past days for a serious amount of cake?
Why are we hearing that the MBCA (Mid-size Bank Coalition of America) proposed to the FDIC (the tax payer) to insure all deposits for the next 2 years?
Why are there reports of even after getting a $30 billion bail out, First Republic Bank is trying to, in one form or another, be sold and quickly? This looks to be true for other banks.
Go look up BTFP. Why is there talk of up to $ 2 trillion of back up for the banks?
Sure! Everything is sound says Janet Yellen just like she told us inflation was transitory. On top of that, the president says any moves will not cost a tax payer a dime! Who is he trying to kid? Feel better now?
And now we wait with bated breath for the man who created all the massive distortions that caused this. Yes…playing God with the biggest market in the world will do that. You were warned! We have news for you. Just like he was blind and waaaaay behind inflation as the yield market skyrocketed, he is now waaaaay behind the other way as yields have plunged. He didn’t listen while they were on their way up. Will he listen as they are on their way down and in record fashion? Not sure it even matters if he raises a wee bit, does nothing or even decides to lower rates. Of course, markets will jump in the near term depending on what he does but real yields have already done the job. The 10 year sits at 3.395% while Mr. Powell sits at 4.5-4.75%. And why wait until Wednesday? Shouldn’t have he already showed his hand? A waiting game while people are worried about their deposits in banks? Sure!
We suspect if CS and FRC get sold with government (tax payer) guarantees, markets will be happy near term. If Warren gets involved, suspect that would add to some happiness. But then, who’s next? That’s quite a good question. As we enter this week, seems like desperation by the chieftains is at hand.
As we enter this week, pretty much the only game in town is the continued recent relative strength in bigger cap technology/semiconductors. You can also add a very strong move in gold and gold stocks but gold stocks continue to under-perform the metal badly. Most other areas of the market are now deeply stretched, extended and oversold and could randomly bounce at any time. The vicious drop has not been limited to financials but many other areas including energy, industrials, commodities…ok, just about everything.
No matter what, this will all end up on our backs…for the gargantuan mistakes they made. They used us in 08 to the tune of $800 billion with no return. That number looks to be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes down the pike.
Credit Suisse has a real market cap (the real world) of $5 billion but gets a $54 billion loan from their central bank. A company that should be out of business because of debt just got 10x their market cap IN MORE DEBT! Such a financial system!
Yellen is telling the senate banking committee today that the banking system is sound and deposits are safe at the same time banks are going under and the fed bails out every depositor in this country. Hope she can keep a straight face with this utter bs. And to be clear, when you back stop every deposit at every bank…IT IS A BAIL OUT. They are now in hope and prayer mode the runs stop. Remember, she is one of the 3 central bankers that caused all this. If things are sound, why the bail out and why are we hearing they are about to print $2 trillion more to back stop?
First Republic (FRC)…everything was alright when it popped up to $50 on Tuesday morning. It is down $9 this morning back down to $21 and change. As we have stated…DO NOT GET CUTE WITH THESE MOVES. Other REGIONALS down early.
THERE IS A NARROW LIST OF BIG CAP TECH GETTING THE MONEY FLOWS. We are open to all outcomes but this really reminds us of parking as so many areas have been crushed. META up more this morning with a rhyme and reason. Looks like US is going after the major competitor in Tik Tok. That does matter. When the big money is scared, it flows to the largest for liquidity purposes. We must also add the plunge in rates of help.
CRB INDEX at yearly lows. The economy.
OIL PRICES at yearly lows. The economy.
YIELDS along the curve have tanked. The economy.
It would be another mistake if Powell raised rates next go round. Would just tell us he remains blind. Would love to say it doesn’t matter what he does but right now, it will matter. He is way behind the market again…the real market.This would not be a good time for what he is famous for, another misstep. As we stated, the free market is again way ahead of him. He is again behind the free market…just the other way. If he raises rates with yields tanking, he would again not be listening to the markets. If he lowers rates, he would just again be playing catch-up. He was way behind when rates kept spiking because of the inflation he caused and had to play catch up by raising rates. Now, rates are tanking and they are way behind on the upside. They are at 4.5-4.75% while the 10 year is 3.421% as we write this. Continued gargantuan ineptitude and blindness by the most powerful person on earth. Still trying to figure out how he got there and how he had the ability to distort free markets so much…causing all this.
Remember, we warned you about all of Powell’s distortions way in advance and that those distortions would come back to bite everything. The free markets finally took over, unwinding all of his distortions. The free markets are now giving all his playing God with markets the big middle finger, only we are the victims.
If every asset price, every data point, every economic statistic, every decision by investors, speculators and traders…small, medium and large are used to, addicted to and FORCED TO work off of 0% interest rates, what do you think happens when the unwind comes? FORCED TO were the operative words. We have been warning you about this great unwind for years. We have been warning you about the bubbles. We have been warning you about the screwing of savers. We warned you that Austria was able to float 100 year bonds at less than 1%. We warned you of the bond market losses. We warned you about the biggest problem. All of this was not the real market. All of this was not the free market. We warned you. We whined and complained on a daily basis that we let one man control the biggest market in the world with unimaginable amounts of conjured up money to buy up the whole freaking bond market. Let’s think about this again and simplify things again for you.
One man printed to $9 trillion and took rates to 0%. Talked his counterpart in Europe to do the same. One man was able to print to $9 trillion. Think about that. We let him print to $9 trillion to take over the most important market in the world. The market on yields. Again, every asset price, every data point, every economic statistic, every decision by investors, speculators and traders…small, medium and large were FORCED TO work off of 0% interest rates. They were forced to make decisions that otherwise they wouldn’t have if that one man did not have the ability to take over the biggest market in the world. Short term paper. Nope. Paid nothing. 1 year…nope. 2 year…nope. 10 year? 10 year paper paying as low as 0.398%. What do you think happens to an entity that is forced to go out ten years to make just 0.398% when rates spike higher? They lose a crap load unless they hold to maturity. They are forced to hold to maturity unless they want to take a loss.
What else? We warned you about inflation. We just went back to our economics 101 book. Too much money chasing not only too few goods but chasing nothing. It was that simple. So while Jay Powell was smiling at himself in the mirror because markets were up and bubbles were turning reddit followers into zillionaires, we again warned that this was all because of one man’s whims with the unimaginable ability to print unimaginable amounts of conjured up money and there would be an ultimate outcome and that ultimate outcome would be an unimaginable unwind. Jay Powell had no clue what he wrought.
So economics 101 took over. But human nature says Jay Powell did not want to believe there would be any problems because in real time, everything was just fine. Markets were cooperating. But then the s–t hit the fan. Inflation spiked. He refused to believe what we and eventually quite a few others started to scream about. But the real market started talking. Amazingly, all he had to do was follow what he stopped controlling when the printing spigot ended. Yields spiked. Economic 101 says when inflation picks up, the real world of markets would demand higher rates to account for the inflation but also to unwind the crazy. As yields spiked, he did nothing which led to higher inflation. Add in Biden’s continued asinine spending and you had one heck of a 1-2 punch for inflation. The so-called “Putin price hike” came later. The president then did his job by lying about the cause.
Powell finally realized he had to combat the inflation. Powell had to finally admit with Yellen (another easy money central banker) that inflation was a problem. At first, slow walked but as inflation picked up and yields kept going higher, he had to start moving quickly JUST TO PLAY CATCH UP. Over time, he finally caught up to the real market as he basically was racing against Usain Bolt.
And now, we have hit our ultimate warning to you. Our simple question was, has been and still is what happens when all of the distortions this one man created by playing God with the biggest market in the world really get unwound? You are now seeing it in real time. This is not just Silicon Valley. This is the many that were FORCED TO deal with one man’s rigging and manipulating the biggest market in the world, the yield market. This is the many that are holding long dated paper while yields have spiked. At the extreme, this is about Austria being able to float 100 year bonds at under 1%. Take a guess on how much principle has been lost on these bonds.
So here we are today. The 16th largest bank is taken over even though we have been told everything is just fine. Yellen telling us all is well does not make one feel better as she was part of the contingent back in 08 who told us subprime was contained and housing prices never go down. She was part of the contingent that had oversight over the banks that committed all kinds of fraud using all kinds of alphabet soup leverage causing the disaster. And yes, she was part of the contingent that started the nightmarish experiment of printing money out of thin air. Feel better now.
So what is next? Anyone who tells you they know is just guessing. But we can tell you we have been on top of this and we cannot be sure. We are told how good the stress tests are but these stress tests do not test out the emotions of people and we can guarantee you none of these stress tests involved the nightmarish taking over of the bond market by one man or the fact that in record time, 1 year paper has gone from 0% to 5%. These stress tests do not test out the fact that the many now know 5% government paper is out there. This is just one man’s opinion and some may not like the following statement but the people running the show…who caused all this DON’T KNOW WHAT THE HECK THEY ARE DOING AND HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CLUE WHAT IS OUT THERE. They do not understand this is not about the banks but about the decisions of those same people and businesses who were forced into living in Jay Powell’s world of no yields but now have alternatives. Banks are only banks because of the deposits of people and business.
We do have some forward thoughts.
There will be others. Silicon Valley went out because they were not able to raise money because how far down their stock price dropped. We think it is a must to watch stock prices of especially the smaller.
Two weeks ago, we were sure the fed was going to raise another 1/2 point in the upcoming meeting… but now, we give that no shot. There may just be a chance of no move at the next meeting. You must know that if Powell had his way, he would have been lowering rates right now but because of the inflation he created, unless things really worsen, lowering rates may still be out of the question. BUT THE LOWERING OF RATES WILL BE AN EVENTUALITY. They are boxed in like mixed nuts. Raise rates now? Doubt it. But if they lower rates, what about the inflation they were so wrong about but now have to deal with?
What would we do? We would have never been in this position in the first place as we would have let free markets do their thing. They are quite efficient without these interlopers.
But if we did take over right now, we would do everything in our power to have others take over Silicon Valley and not the federal government. Enough of the government thing. Isn’t $32 trillion of debt and soaring enough?
We would then start paying attention. We would then make sure all financials institutions, big and small were acutely aware that they are only as good as their deposits. In case you did not know, there was a huge flight to safety Friday as the 10 year yield plunged. In fact, the whole yield curve plunged. That is money moving to safer places. We would have every major bank start thinking about worst case scenarios, because we are not dealing with banks, but they’re depositors, and how they feel.
We would then sit down with the administration and tell them to take their $6.8 trillion nightmare of a budget and stick it. Just that number $6.8 trillion mentioned has implications. That’s $6.8 trillion with over $1.5 trillion of debt…a record.
The real market has taken over. The control Jay Powell had with unimaginable amounts of conjured up money has been over for a while but somehow believe he thinks he is still in control. We continue to be worried that the same people that caused these problems and are treated like they have a clue are still running the show. We would love to give you better news but we have always dealt with reality and reality has always been the numbers. We take no joy in any of what we are stating but debt, deficits, distortions brought to us by the people in power are now speaking volumes and where it stops, wish we knew. We just think one must be careful of the talk everything will be fine. WE HOPE EVERYTHING WILL BE FINE! But it is not fine when the 16th largest bank goes under in short order, an institution that has oversight by guess who?
GARY KALTBAUM
Strong advance declines!
Been going on past few days.
Improving internals.
Improving technicals.
More sectors turning up.
Today sucked. When markets open hot and finish badly, that is distribution.
Coming after a very strong day, quite disappointing.
DEFENSE, MANAGE CARE, BIG BIOTECHS worsening tops.
Other HEALTHCARE may be topping.
Juice today was in the worst high beta/tech areas but also came in hard by end of day.
Maybe a better day tomorrow.
Mix in one part crappy economic numbers.
Stir in strong bond market reaction tanking yields.
Add a dash of plunging dollar.
What do you get?
The market held the lows of past three weeks and ramped off of it. The market now gets the chance to get back some of that ugly December.
- Major indices walking towards the ledge of the past 3 weeks. Goal line stand needed
- Themes mentioned past 2 days as breaking down…worsen…especially solars and managed care.
- High beta screen getting negative again. These names in brutal bear markets.
- CHINA names actually mostly green again in spite of indices.
- More names that held up best…cracking.
1) Regardless of indices whipsawing all over the place, advance/declines very strong. It’s one day but it matters.
2) GOLD/GOLD NAMES edging out of range.
3) CHINA ADRs en fuego with many moving above near term range.
4) But areas we just called tops on not good today with some gagging.
5) Managed care, defense, coal, oils, energy not good charts.
1) Dow leads again…NASDAQ lags…not good. Though, a/d not so bad today.
2) Pay no attention to reported 133 new highs on nasdaq. Most spacs that dont move and just 3 names.
3) SOLARS, ENERGY, MANAGED CARE BIG BIOTECH WQRSEN.
4) Market opens hot and sells off. We’ll take it that it rallied towards close but DOW leading…not good.
5) CHINA ADRs better despite high covid but how to trust after FUTU.
6) And a few more names on the verge of breaking.
We have complained about him for years. We knew something was up when he turned tail Christmas of 2018 but his announcement of money printing October of 2019 before covid and while GDP and unemployment was in the 3s had us screaming. Jay Powell then played God with markets in ways unimaginable taking rates to 0% and printing to a whopping $9 trillion. He caused massive distortions of price and yield, enabled massive bubbles that have all popped and popped badly, created the widest wealth inequality in our history, screwed savers, enabled massive debt and deficits, enabled zombie companies, caused the inflation, never saw it coming, when it hit, said it was transitory AND NOW he is playing God the other way. To think that one man still believes he can control a $40 trillion market and a $20 trillion economy would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad. He and his buddies have been wrong 100% of the time and looks like that will continue. In the end, the free market is a ton smarter than these people. They refuse to listen to the free markets. Unfortunately, we now get to see how far they go the other way. We do not think they even know the monster they created. Think about this. Real yields are plunging while they are now still raising. Real yields are telling them a story yet they are still not listening. They did not matter in the past year as real yields took over. They now matter as they are now above real yields and promise to raise even more. The same people who caused the problems are still at the helm and they again are going the wrong way. We’ll say it for the 1000th time. These central bankers only do harm. We have no idea how they became the most powerful people on earth with no accountability or oversight with the ability to print to $9 trillion to do their bidding. They need to be shut down. The free markets and the American people would be much better off without them. Unfortunately, wishful thinking.
Massively oversold markets. Massively overbought yields and dollar. Less massive today as an expected but random bounce starts. Duration unknown. Price unknown. Bank of England goes from talking tough to printing money the next day. Yippee! And the show: source: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10863617/ie-09-28-22
Markets opened hot and wanted higher but could not fight off higher rates which started down and finished up markedly. Still thinking near term we could bounce but yields have to have a respite. Their persistence to the upside quite amazing. Better r/s in tech today but even the NASDAQ was way higher before finishing […]
We have warned you since Christmas of 2018 about Jay Powell. We doubly warned you October of 2019 when amazingly, he started money printing again even though markets were near highs, unemployment was in the 3s and GDP was in shape. We then yelled and screamed about the outcome of an un-elected and unaccountable man […]
OIL PRICES HIGHER…NOT GOOD YIELDS HIGHER…NOT GOOD IF IT CONTINUES…NOT GOOD….NEED NOT SAY MORE! SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10863617/ie-08-23-22
Our top call from Friday gained teeth. Saw too much speculation. (BBBY) New yearly lows picking up. More and more names in trouble. Market too extended. Not thrilled how easily this sold off. Will know a lot more when we gauge the bounces. Hope you heed our warnings on the meme crap.
Pretty much odds favor you have seen a good high…for now. 10 year yields moved back above 50 day and working on higher low again. Yields higher not a good thing. DEFENSIVE areas come to the fore. More new yearly lows than highs…already. Mr. Buffett looks to be all over OXY as it breaks above […]
We warned 100x about the meme stocks. We almost begged to be careful. As we recap right now, BBBY trading at $10.68 after hitting $30 yesterday as the captains jump ship. We have stated over and over all these stocks will EVENTUALLY go back where they came from. SEMIS strong day after blasted yesterday. Yummy! […]