Top Traders Unplugged with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen: Recent Episodes
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Top Traders Unplugged is a show that will keep you in the know about how the world's top investors are navigating todays' markets and where they think the economy is heading. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen brings these engaging and often surprising conversations to you each week, so you don't miss out when we explore their latest successes or failures, best ideas as well as other valuable insights—learn like never before by tuning into Top Traders Unplugged each week!
Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆.
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.
You can find some of Moritz’s work here, and over at realvision.com.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes.
You can find more of Rob’s work here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following.
Find out more about Eric and his firm Standpoint here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of losses.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from government subsidies and selling bitcoin.
Thanks to Matt for leaving us a voicemail. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in relation to historic volatility.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.
Follow Rob:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/investingidiocy
Follow Niels:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/toptraderslive
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive
Website: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/
IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why ‘low-cost’ funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
We have a special episode for you today, featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively we should be managing open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.
Check out the episode that sparked today’s debate here!
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive , @RJParkerJr09, & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the Gamestop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.
You can find Mark’s latest writings here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.
Check out our interview with Turtle Trading legends Richard Dennis & Jerry Parker here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower trader might be approaching Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
We’re joined today by Robert Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
In this episode, we conclude our special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. We also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
In today’s special episode, we go into some depth about how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program. We also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today we welcome back Jerry Parker onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @RJParkerJr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.
Check out Mark’s blog here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
In today’s episode, we discuss how to effectively manage your emotional stability regardless of trading performance, the true value of Bitcoin and the various catalysts behind its price movements, the importance of being able to get back into a trade you may have recently been stopped out of, managing leverage and volatility in a portfolio, how to approach extreme anomalies in historical price data, and much more.
Thanks to Gene for submitting your voicemail to the show. If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the relevance of open trade equity compared to closed trade equity, the reported return of value’s reign over growth stocks, combining Trend Following portfolios with other strategies, the important of using significant sample sizes when analysing data, why successful systematic traders tend to have the longest documented returns on record. Questions we answer include: Which type of moving average is generally the most effective in Trend Following? Do you recommend any hedging strategies?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
This week, we discuss the importance of short sellers for well-functioning markets, the benefits of trading index futures versus cash equities, diversification in a robust Trend Following system, Pfizer’s CEO selling a majority of his stock holdings around the vaccine announcement, the differences between top independent discretionary traders & professional money managers, and the increasing use of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Questions we answer this week include: Are shorter timeframes going to be more effective than longer timeframes in the future? What are your thoughts on trading less-liquid markets?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆
Today, we welcome legendary author Jack Schwager onto the show to discuss his new book ‘Unknown Market Wizards’ and a range of topics such as: which timeframe makes the most successful trader, how the best traders seem to have uncorrelated returns to the overall stock market, why elite traders can often have terrible starts to their careers, how embracing risk management can take returns to a much higher level, what investors should look for in a money manger, mean-reversion versus momentum trading, and a lot more.
Find out more about Jack’s work here and here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Jack on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @JackSchwager
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s episode, we discuss the continual need for improvements to a system, the importance of good housekeeping when it comes to managing a portfolio, the varying amounts of leverage among CFD brokers, choosing whether to accept outside investment into your strategy or go it alone, using profit stops versus letting your winners run, and the importance of protecting your intellectual property. Questions we answer this week include: How do experienced CTAs trade through limit-down (or limit-up) situations? Can machine learning be useful in Trend Following for more than just risk parity strategies?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Legendary Trend Following author & podcast host, Michael Covel, joins us today to discuss the far-reaching popularity of his books, the advantages of allocating to a Trend Following manager rather than DIY trading, managing money for clients vs being an unknown successful private trader, why Trend Following funds should worry about AUM growing to be too large, why Trend Following still deserves an important allocation to any investment portfolio after recent mediocre returns, and whether central bank Quantitive Easing programs have changed the landscape for systematic investors.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz, & Michael on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert & @Covel
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we discuss how markets are handling current US presidential election uncertainty, why a healthy allocation to Trend Following strategies may be needed now more than ever, our thoughts on trading systematically in the cryptocurrency markets, and how to invest in Trend Following funds with relatively low capital. We also answer your questions, including: how do I share the details of my successful trading strategy with my employer, who is a money management firm?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Systematic trading and Trend Following legend, Perry Kaufman, joins us on the show today to discuss the importance of being comfortable with risk, the benefits of continuously ranking & evaluating markets, the importance of ‘fat tails’ in Trend Following systems, why you might want to use equal risk with every trade, how to avoid being over-correlated, trading single stocks vs indices, opinions on profit targets, and why he generally prefers long trades vs short trades.
You can find more of Perry’s work on his website here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Robert Carver joins us today to discuss the case for and against the Kelly Criterion, short vs medium vs long-term Trend Following, how closely you should be following different markets, diversification across markets vs across timeframes, how mainstream financial media is driving investors to alternative information sources, the amount of screens you need to trade successfully, and the importance of viewing returns in terms of percentage rather than monetary terms.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In this episode, we discuss the best & worst markets for Trend Following strategies in recent years, the benefits of trading & investing across multiple timeframes, how a combined portfolio of Trend Following & the S&P500 has been historically lucrative, the perils of a market that is stuck in a large trading range, and how 3 months can easily change your year-to-date performance. Questions we answer include: What are your thoughts on inflation & fixed income, as they relate to Trend Following? How do commission & other charges affect systematic trading strategies? What is the optimal allocation to Trend Following? Do you have any advice for trading CFDs?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today, we discuss the Federal Reserve’s current inflation targets, whether it is ok for systematic managers to turn off their systems during periods of high volatility & uncertainty, the looming questions around Ray Dalio & Bridgewater’s underwhelming performance in 2020, volatility control vs risk control, and why liquidity should be an important deciding factor for investors when choosing a money manager. Questions we answer this week include: How do you size your positions once maximum portfolio risk is reached? Do have you have any tips on how to perform volatility-control?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
On today’s show, we discuss Tesla’s threat to the current giants of European car manufacturing, how paper trading can dramatically differ to live trading, the drawbacks of systematic investing through a broker’s platform rather than manually operating the system, the benefits of including commodities & currencies in a Trend Following system, and the case against long/flat-only Trend Following on stocks. Questions we answer this week include: Do you recommend any platforms that you allow you to test your trading system? Do you recommend any ‘off-the-shelf’ Trend Following trading systems?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Check out our Global Macro series here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
We are extremely honoured to welcome Steve Keen, the legendary Australian economist, to our podcast today. Steve is one of the leading critics of mainstream economics, and in our conversation provided a valuable alternative perspective to some of the critical issues facing us today. As you might expect, we did spend time discussing the COVID crisis and the potential policy options for addressing its economic effects, but we also touched on a range of other topics, from climate change to digital currencies, as well as giving Rob the opportunity to ask Steve about Brexit.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Steve on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @ProfSteveKeen
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today, we’re delighted to welcome Roberto Osario, Vice President, Trading Systems at DUNN Capital, onto the show. Niels pitches Roberto some of our most fiercely debated topics so far, such as the optimal amount of markets to trade, diversification in all of its forms, the pros & cons of Volatility Targeting, how to accurately recognise model decay, Black Swan strategies and why they maintain popularity regardless of performance, the best look-back period for Trend Following strategies, and if today’s speed of information flow has led to stock market crashes & fast recoveries being the new normal.
Check out previous episodes with Niels & Roberto (featuring Alex Greyserman & Katy Kaminski) here, and here.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Rob Carver returns to the show this week to discuss Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, the potential Bond market bubble that very few are talking about, the sweet-spot for Trend Following fund AUMs, Dave Portnoy’s influence on Robinhood traders, Tom Basso’s recent interview with Meb Faber, and the continual need to improve your successful trading strategies. Questions we answer this week include: Do you know of any Trend Following funds who use the Black-Litterman model of asset allocation? Is it possible to have too much of an allocation to Trend Following strategies?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
We are very pleased to welcome Lyn Alden to the studio today, the founder of Lyn Alden investment strategy. Lyn is from an engineering background, and hence, as you might expect, brings a logical and rigorous approach to thinking about economics and financial markets. In our fascinating conversation Lyn was able to draw on her considerable knowledge and understanding of history to inform us in thinking about today’s problems. Our discussion spanned high level thinking about multi decade trends, but also very granular recommendations for the portfolio of assets you should hold today.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Lyn on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @LynAldenContact
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we discuss Tesla’s meteoric stock price rise and its likely inclusion into the S&P 500, similarities between today’s parabolic moves in the stock market and the famous tech bubble, why the current outlook for markets necessitates a place for investing in Trend Following strategies, Germany’s move to tax investors on their gold ETF holdings, Volatility-focused trading strategies, and the differences in making adjustments to short term systems vs long term systems. Questions answered this week include: At what point do you decide that your system is no longer working? How do you adjust for ‘conviction’ when placing a trade?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s episode we're joined by Jim Bianco, the president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim’s wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets.
Jim is a true master when it comes to providing objective, data-driven research with a unique perspective and is very generous when it comes to sharing it, which I’m sure you will agree with after listening to today’s conversation.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Michael on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @BiancoResearch
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s episode we are joined by Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Cam served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago.
Although Cam is well-known as being the inventor of the Yield-Curve Indicator, with an eight for eight track record in forecasting recessions in the U.S. he is also involved in crypto and blockchain technology, which made our conversation wide-ranging and super interesting.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Campbell on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy &
@CamHarvey
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In this episode, we discuss the danger of financial products such as the Daily 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN, the potential end of the 2020 bull market in stocks, Howard Mark’s recent quotes on managing risk & market cycles, how a Trend Following mentality can have a positive affect on your world-view, patience for your system vs patience for an individual position, and why needing to ‘agree’ with your trades can be a dangerous idea. Questions we answer this week include: How do you avoid losing large open profits during a parabolic move? Is CAGR a good measure of performance?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In this special anniversary edition of the Systematic Investor podcast, Jerry Parker joins us on the show to discuss why removing as many filters as possible may be beneficial to your trading system, why we could actually be living in the most ‘certain’ times in history, the importance of laser-like focus and unemotional trading during the best & worst periods, Jerry’s incredible story of despair to eventual victory as a Trading Turtle under Richard Dennis, the fallacy of aiming for the ‘perfect’ system, Cliff Asness’s quotes on Corey Hoffstein’s Flirting With Models podcast, the deep history of Trend Following, and a lot more!
Thank you to Seth for submitting your voicemail to the show. If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz, & Jerry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @RJParkerjr09
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s episode we are joined by Michael Green, of Logica Capital advisors. Michael has over 20 years as a portfolio manager, mainly in the global macro space. Recently he has become well known because of his work on the shift to passive investing, and inevitably this was one of the topics we wanted to ask Mike about. Our conversation wasn’t limited to that however, and we also discussed comparisons between the present day and previous historical crisis (going back to the Roman Empire!), as well as many other interesting subjects.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Michael on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @ProfPlum99
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s show, we discuss why a great defence is necessary for great portfolios, Trend Following on ETFs, why liquidity is often an under-appreciated factor when choosing markets, why you need to include shorts, tips for testing system code, why futures are better for short positions than stocks, and why investing in alternative strategies can allow you to be more aggressive when chasing stock market returns. We also answer some of your questions, including: What is your chosen measure of liquidity? Do you place your trades at the open, close, or other times?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Our guest today is Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill intelligence. One of the major themes of our podcast series so far has been the reactions of central banks to the global pandemic, and its likely effects on inflation and asset prices. As a former Fed insider, with nine years of experience as an advisor to the president of the Dallas Fed, Danielle is uniquely positioned to give us her take on the action taken by central banks so far, and what their next move is likely to be. However, our conversation was not just about the Fed, as it covered many other interesting topics including the curious timing of the US-China trade talks in January 2020 (one for conspiracy theorists!).
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Danielle on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @DiMartinoBooth
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today, we’re delighted to welcome Mark Rzepczynski onto the show to discuss his time working with John W. Henry and what J. W. Henry’s ‘secret weapon’ was, the most effective way to gain downside protection, how to overcome behavioural biases in investing, how diversification can reduce profitability during huge trends, how to effectively make the case for Trend Following to potential investors, where returns dispersion among CTAs is stemming from, and one of our favourite topics: how many markets in a portfolio is too many?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Mark on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @MRzepczynski
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today we are very lucky to welcome Larry McDonald as our guest. Larry is the founder of the Bear Traps report, and has extensive experience in consulting and investment banking. His bestselling book “A colossal failure of common sense”, described his time as a Vice President at Lehman brothers where Larry had a ringside view of the last financial crisis. Needless to say this gives him an interesting perspective on the current state of the global markets. Our very enjoyable conversation covered a wide range of topics from high level macro, across Silver and Copper, and down to individual stocks like Tesla.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Larry on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @Convertbond
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today's guest is Erik Townsend, host of the Macro voices podcast. Erik has an unusual background, as he had a very successful career as a technology entrepreneur before turning his hand to commodity trading. His background gives him a different perspective to many in the financial world, as we discovered in our conversation. Our discussion explored the possible consequences of the action taken by central banks in the last and current crisis; including rampant inflation, social unrest, and the overthrow of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency. As Erik said towards the end of our conversation: “Put your seatbelt on, there could be some rough turbulence ahead”!
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Erik on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @ErikSTownsend
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today, Robert Carver joins us to discuss JP Morgan’s comments on markets being fabricated by central bank liquidity, Tesla’s incredible swings in market cap, thoughts on Warren Buffett’s recent ‘value’ purchase, the point at which diversification in a portfolio becomes dilution, and the benefits of diversifying among different Trend Following managers.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Moritz & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, & @InvestingIdiocy
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Our guest for today’s episode is Preston Pysh, founder of BuffetsBooks.com and co-host at The Investors Podcast network. As a graduate of both West Point and John Hopkins, Preston is certainly the only person we have interviewed who has both an MBA but can also fly a helicopter. Mostly in the interview we were talking about economics rather than military strategy, but the topic of aUS/China war did come up briefly. Preston has spent a lot of time thinking about value investing, and some of the most interesting parts of our discussion centred around the effects that money printing and technological change have had for the traditional value investor. But we also had a wide ranging chat about many other topics, including Moritz’s current favourite: Bitcoin.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Preston on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @PrestonPysh
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Our guest in today's episode is Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 partners. Julian has decades experience in investment banking on both sides of the Atlantic, and is a true original thinker. We had a highly enjoyable conversation with Julian, who has a unique knack of explaining his frequently controversial views in a thoroughly entertaining fashion. He has a wide knowledge of topics as varied as silver and shale oil, and his historical references ranged from the 2008 crash all the way back to the Black Death in the middle ages.
Learn more about our Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Follow Niels, Moritz, Rob & Julian on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @MoritzSeibert, @InvestingIdiocy & @JulianMI2
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
On today’s episode, we discuss the clear link between stock market prices & the Federal Reserve balance sheet, the widening gap between the best & worst CTA performances, the influx of retail money into the stock market, how RobinHood makes its profits despite offering free trading, bond prices and what they may be telling us about the future, how CTAs might now be swinging back to the long side, and how lofty expectations are driving many stock prices unexpectedly higher.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert,
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
How investors are easily swayed by misleading titles.
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Are US Treasuries as safe as we really think?
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Meb Faber explains how to combine Trend Following with Buy & Hold.
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Meb Faber on why investors are underinvested in Trend Following.
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How to allocate a portfolio, accounting for market correlations?
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This week, we give our thoughts on the inaccuracies of CTA replicator models, static risk versus dynamic risk, ways to approach variable position sizing, the power of a system being ‘good enough’, Jim Simon's quotes on overriding your systems, and the recent accusation that CTAs are driving the stock market upward. Questions answered this week include: What elements of my trading system should I look to expand, if it’s going well? Can I diversify using stock sectors only? What are your thoughts on Volatility Targeting?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert,
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Combining fundamental macro with price data.
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How to educate financial advisors about Trend Following strategies.
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The differences between changes leading to improvement & changes leading to inconsistency.
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What level of Leverage should you use?
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Jim O’Shaughnessy’s paper from 1987 confirms our thesis.
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In today’s episode, we discuss David Harding’s past interview with the SEC, possible mistakes to avoid in Systematic Investing, if there are any differences between market confidence and the strength of a Trend, thoughts on Excel vs Python, and the importance of preserving capital during bad periods. We also answer your questions, including: Does the rise of Volatility trading have any effect on the effectiveness of Trend Following strategies? How is trend strength calculated?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert,
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Why Trend Following strategies aren’t perfect.
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What would the ‘perfect portfolio’ look like?
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How & Where to trade Interest Rates.
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What defines a Trend Following trader?
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This week, we discuss the possible effects of recent bans on short selling, Howard Mark’s latest memo on the recent rally in asset prices, the Wirecard debacle of losing $1.9billion, Tesla’s ascension to largest market cap of all car manufacturers in the world, the benefits of Trend Following in a diversified portfolio, the power of non-correlated strategies combined, and the secret sauce of Trend Following. Questions we answer include: How do Central Bank policies affect Trend Following strategies? Are some markets more prone to trends than others?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, and @MoritzSeibert,
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Why the term ‘Managed Futures’ may be misleading.
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Should you treat some markets differently?
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How much does luck play a part in short-term results?
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Why aiming for a balance of longs & shorts in your portfolio may be beneficial.
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Do you trade the front month contract?
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At what point does a drawdown become too much, before action has to be taken?
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Robert Carver joins us back on the show to discuss why simulating ‘noisy’ data in your backtest can add to robustness, how similar strategies can still result in widely varying returns, how to choose the right look-back period, trading continuous vs binary systems, and how much automation should be used when running a system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Rob on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert, and @InvestingIdiocy
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Which timeframe holds the most influence in markets?
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The Turtles reduced risk during drawdowns... is this a good idea?
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Dealing with correlations on different asset classes.
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Bill Eckhardt’s comments on adding discretion to systematic trading.
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Do losers really average losers?
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Today we discuss the disconnect between stock market prices & the expected returns based on economic data, why current p&l may not reflect the quality of your positions, and the potential role of central banks in the future. Questions we answer include: How do you reduce futures rollover costs? How often should a Trend Following trader look at their portfolio?
Documentaries mentioned: The Fourth Turning Explained and Prince of the Yen
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, and @MoritzSeibert
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Can you really be hedged from 2-3pm?
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Chris Cole on Volatility... from a statistic to a tradable asset.
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Is Trend Following becoming too crowded?
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Thoughts on AI trading systems, and how they handled the crash of 2020.
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A dive into Volatility Scaling as part of your Risk Management framework.
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Jerry Parker rejoins us today to discuss how single stocks behave differently to indexes, knowing when to ignore your backtests, multi-strategy CTAs vs trend following CTAs, how to make 3000% in a month, why CTAs should be considered the ‘perfect portfolio’ rather than ‘crisis alpha’, and how luck plays a part in past returns. Questions we answer include: What is the shortest timeframe you look at? What positions are you mainly in at the moment?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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How to know when you should modify your system or take discretionary decisions.
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How should you think about market correlations when designing your investment strategy.
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An explanation of why you may trade some markets differently, rather than treat all signals the same.
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A look into strategies that worked during the recent market turmoil.
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We’re joined by special guest, Rufus Rankin of Ampersand Investment Management, to discuss Trend Following ETFs, the definition of a truly diversified portfolio, flat-fees versus performance-based fees, how to choose between different managers, learning from Q1 2020, predicting CTA returns, and the recent public spat between Cliff Asness & Nassim Taleb. Questions we answer include: Are Trend Following CTAs seeing an increase in client interest after this year’s stock market crash? What non-USA or Europe markets are CTAs currently interested in?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Is there an Optimal Number of Markets to Trade?
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Rob Carver describes diversification, portfolio construction, & correlations.
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Trend Following during a Time of Crisis.
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Convexity, Crisis Alpha, Smart Beta, and Implied Volatility…what does it all mean?
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How much AUM is really in Trend Following & who are the players?
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Robert Carver joins us to discuss the huge outperformance year-to-date of systematic funds vs discretionary funds, negative prices & their effects on market participants, systematising volatility strategies, whether there is a Holy Grail for eliminating risk completely, Newfound Research’s article on Options Straddles & Trend Following, and where we currently see the strongest trends in our portfolios.
Article mentioned: Straddles & Trend Following by Newfound Research
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Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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CTAs have found that conveying the facts may not be as enticing as telling a good story.
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The eery accuracy of infamous 1920s book, which still holds true today. Maybe markets really haven’t changed that much?
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Why CTA & S&P500 returns are often wrongly compared.
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The ‘mother of all biases’.
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Why Volatility differs from Risk, and how it may even be considered your friend.
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We’re joined today by special guest Nick Leeson, who is famous for the collapse of Barings Bank, one the oldest banks in the world at the time, to discuss liquidity risk in the markets, dealing with stress in extraordinary situations, the importance of asking yourself the difficult questions, problems when interpreting vast amounts of data, what Nick looks for when investing today, the importance of communicating your feelings, and lots more.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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Why having patience and keeping yourself in the right environment is vital to good investing.
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Having conviction is about having a justified belief in your strategy.
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Four C's of Good Investing: Courageousness
Being a good rules-based Investor can be a lonely road, and takes courage to follow.
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How to get Clarity and remove the noise of the markets.
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How a few simple rules were 97% more accurate than predictions from a variety of experts, in fields like stock picking.
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Today, we discuss comments from Warren Buffett in the recent Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting, AQR Capital’s recent research finding pure Trend Following strategies to be a better hedge in bear markets than Options strategies, the oil market & the USO ETF, how commodities are great diversifiers which often outperform equities, how to think about market inefficiencies, and why it’s never too late to invest into Trend Following.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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Why a winning or losing bet may not mean that it was a good or bad decision.
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How a tried & tested strategy can offset the emotional risk when Investing.
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Daniel Crosby explains how our bodies shut our brains down & how this causes bad Investing behaviour.
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Why we desire a good story & the effect this has on our investments.
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Daniel Crosby on Ego, Overconfidence, Emotion & Attention biases.
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Today, special guest Nick Radge joins us on the show to discuss similarities between the market crashes of 1987 and 2020, the players behind the recent Oil volatility, the importance of avoiding trading paralysis, how to behave like a successful investor, developing different strategies for different market environments, how Nick fell in love with Trend Following from an early age, and more. Questions we answer include: How do you incorporate risk management into your strategies? What trading books do you recommend?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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Why working harder doesn't necessarily mean we’ll achieve better results.
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Why the rules of good Investing are often a 180 degrees opposite to Human nature.
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How simple rules eradicated an incurable disease in Africa, and how this can be related to good Investing behaviour.
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Daniel Crosby describes how knowledge can sometimes do very little to change Human behaviour, and so may not be as important as people think.
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Listener question on how to improve a strategy that seems to be broken. Should you take an overall approach, or discard any particular markets that haven’t trended for a while?
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We’re joined today by Robert Carver, to discuss why classical Trend Following strategies did well in the recent selloff, the varying recent returns of Renaissance Technologies and AHL, the risks in OTC trading, why it’s important to diversify across different managers, and how Robert Carver approaches volatility, scaling & portfolio construction during a crisis. Questions answered this week include: Are 20 markets enough for a diversified portfolio? Is pyramiding a bad strategy? Should I prioritise signals that agree on multiple timeframes?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Howard Mark’s recent thoughts on the importance of ‘buying low’, and what really constitutes ‘buying low’.
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Why clients would benefit from lock-up periods, and the difference between evolving your strategies or sticking with it.
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Are A.I. programmers unknowingly passing their human biases into the algorithms?
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The benefits of sticking with your system through good & bad times, even in the face of client pressure. Also why Investors benefit from not looking at their portfolios too frequently.
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In this episode, we discuss how Trend Following strategies are able to cope with the extra volatility around huge world events, Transtrend’s recent article on responsible investing and why that includes the ability to short a market, the current oil situation, as well as recent interview appearances by Ray Dalio and Danielle DiMartino Booth. Questions answered this week include: Can Trend Following do well in a hyper inflationary environment? Have you discovered anything new from the 2020 Crash?
Interviews mentioned: Danielle DiMartino Booth on Valuetainment and Ray Dalio on TED
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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Bill Dreiss shares his opinion on what it takes to be a successful Trader.
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Bill Dreiss discusses embracing the uncontrollable nature of Volatility, and explains some of the dangers of what he calls ‘warehousing risk.’
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Discussion on some of the reasons why Trend Following works, but why paradoxically, investors are lured toward mean-reversion.
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Bill Dreiss shares some of his thoughts on Risk Management and Leverage.
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Bill Dreiss takes us under the hood of his system, and explains why it’s so unique.
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Special guest, Harold de Boer of Transtrend, joins us on the show today to discuss why the recent returns disparity among CTAs might be good for the industry, the benefits of investing in more than one Trend Following fund, if the term ‘machine learning’ should be considered as a marketing ploy, what makes a strategy robust, why unsupervised ‘black box’ strategies may be riskier than more traditional strategies, how much the markets have changed over time, some thoughts on volatility targeting, and how CTAs can differentiate themselves in the eyes of investors.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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We explain Why Trend Following will continue to perform Over Time.
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How markets drive performance more so than skill, and why you need to trade longer-term.
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Bill Dreiss talks about his interest in Elliot Wave analysis & the Fractal nature of markets, and how he successfully have used this approach since the 1970's.
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We go down memory lane and discuss our worst trades, and what we learned from them.
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We discuss when a Trend Follower would be neither Long nor Short.
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Today, we discuss the benefits of focusing on highly liquid markets, why Trend Following strategies are usually less risky & volatile in any market environment, how simple ideas can often be more robust than complex ideas, whether there’s a place for discretion in trading systems, why a manager’s true aims may not be what you were are expecting, and how emotional intelligence disappears during times of stress. Questions we answer include: Should I have fewer positions, and risk more per trade? How do you deal with a market’s sudden loss of liquidity? How does open equity affect upcoming position sizes?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Is increasing or reducing an existing position during a trade, something you should do?
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What is the perfect allocation percentage to Trend Following, and other assets, in a diversified portfolio?
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JP Morgan blames CTA strategies for causing large market selloffs. We give our view!
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Can you really figure out the markets by using ‘Big Data’ and ‘AI’?
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How you deal with clients during drawdowns and how you manage expectations can make or break your business.
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This week, special guest Eric Crittenden joins us on the show to discuss: the importance of being able to trade short positions, how the best Trend Following strategies have proven their worth in this current environment, why Trend Following can be regarded as a Contrarian Strategy, whether or not ETFs are safe investments, when being 1st place can be as detrimental as coming last, why the most uncomfortable trades can turn out to be the most profitable, why you can’t time entries into a Trend Following fund, how too much AUM can hinder returns, and why there is so much return dispersion among CTAs today.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Rob on Twitter:
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Discussion on whether or not to trade Synthetic Instruments.
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Discussion on a recent Barron’s article which says that the 200-Day Moving Average no longer works - perhaps Barron's have changed their mind after March 2020?
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We discuss The Curious Investor podcast episode on Systematic vs Discretionary Investing.
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“Experts” claim that the character of the markets has changed in recent years. We discuss comments from David Harding, Stanley Druckenmiller & Cliff Asness, relating to Trend Following.
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Today we discuss a listener question, regarding the usual time it takes before being able to follow a Trading System religiously.
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We’re joined on the show today by special guest Robert Carver, to discuss another historically volatile week in the markets, the differences between today’s bear market and 2008, how Robert defines portfolio diversification, how many markets a profitable Trend Following system should trade, the different types of strategies that Robert currently uses, the amount of truly uncorrelated assets available, and volatility scaling as a part of risk management. Questions answered this week include: What causes you to modify your system over time, and how do you go about this? What have you learnt from trading through previous crisis periods? What are your thoughts on AI technology?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
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Today we discuss a question from the audience about what goes on in the life of a CTA.
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The likeliness to curve fit data from backtests, and get excited about numbers which may not materialise.
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When Howard Marks speaks, we should all pay attention. And today's topic about focusing on the Risk rather than the Upside in your portfolio...is just up our street!
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We discuss why we believe that Trend Following could rightly be viewed as the Perfect Portfolio and sometimes the Perfect Hedge.
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Why do equity investors aim to be average? And how to aim for more.
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This week, we discuss the potential benefits of investing in more than one systematic fund, Tom Basso’s recent findings that Trend Following returns actually increase as market volatility increases, the process behind Moritz’s discretionary trade last week, sizing positions according to volatility, the historic rally in government bonds, and the importance of good risk management. Questions we answer include: What software do you use to manage and monitor your portfolios? How much importance do you place on pyramiding into & out of positions? Have you found particular markets trend better than others?
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
IT's TRUE - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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What is the optimal time frame when analysing a track record & why can seemingly correlated strategies have very different returns?
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Want to know what the real benefit of Trend Following is, compared to the traditional Buy & Hold method? Find out in today's episode...there may be more benefits than meets the eye at first glance.
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You may be surprised of the difference between how well Short and Long trades perform...but why it's still important to trade both.
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End of 2019 wrap up, with thoughts on Bonds, Bitcoin, the decade just gone by, and the connection between Netflix & Dominos Pizza.
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After one of the quickest corrections in stock market history last week, we discuss how human emotions & behaviours played their part, the threat of the Corona Virus and its effect on world economies, if a week can be considered long enough to judge if a CTA is providing ‘crisis alpha’, and why short-term systems performed well during the selloff. Questions we cover include: How do you define 'signal strength’? Do you use stop-losses, and if so, how? Can you apply Trend Following systems to micro futures contracts?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here.
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In today’s episode, we discuss whether attempting to trade every market at the same time may hinder any conviction necessary for above-average returns, as well as debate the difference between a portfolio with lots of trades across lots of different markets versus one with less positions among fewer markets. We also cover the Hedge Fund Journal’s recent interview with Harold De Boer of Transtrend, the amount of truly uncorrelated markets available to trade, how much discretion should be used during the design & implementation of a systematic trading strategy, and if the accusation is true that CTAs are the main catalyst behind price shocks.
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here.
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On today’s show, we discuss Morgan Housel’s recent article on history & Historians generally being a bad guide for the future, the popularity of negative predictions, social media as a gauge for current market conditions, the limits of trading indexes versus diversified individual stocks, why following price may be more important than just committing to a bullish or bearish position, and Meb Faber’s recent interview with Tim Hayes, who talked about the dangers of non-price-based indicators.
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here.
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This week, we discuss how Jerry approached his Tesla trade during last week’s parabolic move up, the value of sleeping well at night in comparison to chasing maximum returns, whether Trend Following models can be successfully tilted toward ESG (Sustainable) Investments, thoughts on Negative & Positive Skew, the perceived drawbacks of CTA diversification when stocks are going up, and we also compare Trend Following on stocks, to a fully diversified, Trend Following system. Questions we answer this week include: What do you do next when you have a significant amount of new AUM? Do you have any tips or methods, whether psychologically or built into your models, for handling euphoric gains? How many markets, and how much allocation to each market, do you recommend when constructing a Trading Universe?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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On today’s show, we discuss why having lots of experience may sometimes work against you, why hard and fast rules can be better than making discretionary decisions, the importance of trading in appropriate position sizes, the amount of drawdown that will likely cause you to deviate from your system, the unpopularity of Trend Following strategies, creating an adaptive portfolio that can respond to market conditions, and why Trend Following should play a considerable part in your portfolio. Questions we answer this week include: Should you use Trend Filters to confirm your entry signals? Is the 60/40 portfolio usually less volatile than a typical ‘perfect’ Trend Following portfolio? Do you recommend adding mean-reversion strategies to your Trend Following systems? How do you define short, medium and long-term?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here.
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Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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Today, we discuss how CTAs provide Investors with protection during stock market declines, how the term Crisis Alpha may be linked to reduced allocations to CTAs, the psychology behind managers chasing performance, worthwhile allocation percentages to Trend Following, short-term vs long-term CTA strategies, Trend Following as the perfect portfolio, and Diversification as a way to reduce risk. Questions answered this week include: What are the pros and cons of trading CFDs and do you have any tips for building a portfolio of CFDs? Should instruments that rarely make money be included in backtests, and how do you measure this without curve-fitting data?
Thank you to Andy for submitting your voicemail to the show. If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here.
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Find your free copy of Top Traders Unplugged 100 Best Investment Books of all Time here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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This week, we discuss the reliability of Fundamental Analysis sell rules versus Trend Following sell rules, the so-called ‘Quant winter’ that systematic funds are supposedly in, whether there is a clear definition of Value Investing, the ability of CTAs to offer Investors exposure to less popular markets, the differences between Trend Following and Technical Analysis, and how much of past performance can be considered as an unreliable indicator for the future. Questions we cover include: Do you have to be a coder, or hire one, to be a successful Trend Follower? What do you when you have more signals than available capital? When adding new securities to your Trading Universe, do you resize current positions to accommodate? Is a stock in motion, more likely to stay in motion?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Today, we continue our interview with Andreas Clenow, where we cover topics such as backtesting & system design, whether we see any growth in the CTA industry, long-term vs short-term Investing, and how to go about raising initial AUM. Questions include: How important are drawdowns when analysing performance? Is Crisis Alpha an appropriate label for CTAs today? How do you choose parameters for your Trading Models?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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In the first of a 2-part special with Andreas Clenow, we discuss why combining Models might improve your Risk-Adjusted Returns in the long run, whether all Trend Following signals are more or less the same, reliable ways to measure risk, and some thoughts on Trend Following in the Stock Market. Questions we attempt to answer this week include: How do you trade mean-reverting strategies? Do you use Volatility-Targeting as part of a Trend Following strategy? Why has Andreas mentioned in the past that Trend Following doesn’t work on stocks? Are there less big Trends nowadays? Do you prefer to use the same parameter combinations across all markets?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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In this first episode of 2020, we discuss whether there any investment strategies that work at all times, the recent Barron’s article featuring Richard Thaler on the perils of overconfidence, how Trend Following helps to prevent being too confident, the inherent negativity bias within most investors, the drawbacks of positivity when investing, and why you should consider the costs of being too cautious just as much as the costs of taking on too much risk. Questions covered this week include: Are CTAs becoming too cautious? Is it really worth diversifying away from developed markets? What causes you to make adjustments to your models?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In this week’s episode, we discuss the notion of correlation between volatility and risk, why it can be a bad idea to equate a manager’s performance with their skill-level, when a losing trade should still be considered a good trade, how much opportunity is in Low-Volatility Targeting strategies, and we also give our end-of-year reviews. Questions answered this week include: Is Trend Following another form of price prediction? Do you follow the weekly Commitment of Traders report? Can you can you make money in the markets without the need for predictions?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness, why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns. Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently? Does history always ‘rhyme’? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator? How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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In this week’s episode, find out why investing in a strategy during a drawdown can be profitable in the long-run, why risk-adjusted performance is more important than tracking against an index, why price is a better guide than expert opinions, if there is a time when you shouldn’t attempt to have uncorrelated securities in your portfolio, and the connections between Trading, statistics, & sports.
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we discuss how doing less can ensure bigger & better results over time, average client holding periods versus the recommended amount of time, why short trades can be the essential part of a winning trading system, and why uniqueness is now a key requirement for today’s emerging managers. Questions we cover this week include: How far should your backtest go? Can emerging Hedge Fund managers still succeed in today’s environment? Should you adjust past data for volatility?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we discuss the differences between recognizing risk and ‘warehousing’ risk, why Fundamental Investors could benefit from implementing Trend Following rules, Diversification as the most important component of risk management, what Traders can learn from Weightlifters, and the delicate balancing act between simple, simplicity, & complexity. Questions we answer this week include: Is Systematic Investing a form of betting? How do you define a Trend? Should you scale into positions?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Is the concept of being a great stock picker overrated? Are Trend Following returns mean-reverting over time? Will Sharpe Ratios of Trend Following strategies permanently stay lower from now on? Is it becoming harder to be a successful discretionary macro trader? Should you use the same stop-loss for every position? We also give our thoughts on the process of adding a new market to your Trading Universe, ATR and how to apply it to your strategies, when a visit from the SEC can be taken as a compliment, why pain and suffering can sometimes be a necessary component of profitable Trend Following, Louis Bacon deciding to close down his funds, and much more.
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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In this week’s edition, we discuss the possible benefits of running a multi-strategy portfolio, whether or not you need to have a ‘feel’ for the markets before constructing a model, new all-time highs on the Dow, Trend Following as a viable solution to the end of the 60/40 portfolio, and the longer-term drawbacks of chasing performance from different fund managers. Questions we cover this week include: What really went wrong with LTCM? Should Trend Followers also employ Buy & Hold strategies? Is it ok to ‘leave money on the table’? How would you go about getting into the CTA industry?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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In this week’s episode, we discuss the recently published book on Jim Simons & Renaissance Technologies, why you shouldn’t be too focused on one position, why it can be difficult to avoid overriding your system based on recent fundamentals, what investors can learn from the world’s best Poker players, and why luck should only be the result of following your edge. Plenty of questions answered this week including: Should you add to winning positions? Do you only trade Breakouts or do you also use indicators? Does less volatility mean more robustness? Do you trade ETFs?
Thank you very much to Jim for submitting your voicemail. If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we cover some of the dangers of ‘Home Bias’, and the benefits of diversification mixed with good risk management. We also discuss the differences between common Trend Trading and Systematic Trend Following, why investors tend to hold on to losing positions longer than winning positions, why people being hopeful with losses and afraid with profits may be the reason for why Trend Following works, Dunn’s Capital’s recent milestone of 45 consistent years in the business, why Trend Following strategies are more than just the ‘perfect hedge’, ways that Trend Following can be applied to life, and we touch Abbey Capital’s recent article regarding Trend Following performance over the current decade, compared to previous decades. Questions answered this week include: Should long and short entries be symmetrical? Should you limit position sizing in particular markets? What do you define as a small loss?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
On the show today, we cover some of the dangers of investing in something based on its story alone, how market environments can change while the behaviour of participants stays the same, why Trend Followers sometimes rely on secret fundamental information being baked into price, how Cockroaches behave in ways that should be the basis of any robust Trading System, and Niels explains how to use the Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer. Questions we answer this week include: Do you prefer simple or exponential Moving Averages? Do you use the closing price or the settlement price? Do you measure ATR from the closing price or settlement price? How would you best illustrate Trend strength over a particular periods of time?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Learn more about the free-to-use Top Traders Unplugged Trend Barometer here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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This week, we discuss Bank of America’s recent declaration of the end of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the different attitudes to having ‘insurance’ in the markets, the reasons why too many fund managers are aiming for average returns, and the importance of consistently being present to profit from the biggest price moves. Questions we cover this week include: what can be considered a large enough sample size when performing a backtest? What is best investing advice you have ever received? Should Trend Following funds screen potential clients? How do you deal with positions that show no price movement for a period of time?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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On this week’s episode, we discuss the tendency for investors to confuse volatility & noise with risk and instability, the benefits of great mentorship, why the best investments are those that have survived calamitous periods, why risk from any single market shouldn’t be able to ruin your portfolio, and Larry Hite’s observation that there is very little magic in Trend Following. Questions we answer this week include: can a 10-year track record can be considered as anything more than noise? Is there a way to achieve exceptionally high returns with minimal risk & volatility? What really is a ‘fat tail’? Can Trend Followers make money in rising interest-rate environments? Can you apply Trend Following to the VIX index?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
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This week, we discuss the potential risks of aiming for smooth & steady returns, the pitfalls of having to make predictions, the higher-than-expected appearances of tail events, why it’s dangerous to look at the ‘average performance’ of an industry, and why aiming to trade in a style that suits your personality can actually turn out to be a bad idea. Questions we cover this week include: Have you encountered any CTAs with unusually low-frequency trading strategies? Should the optimization of your strategy come from an ideas-based approach or a data-based approach? How do you feel about the integration of Value Investing into a Trend Following strategy? What does discipline mean to you, and how do you stay disciplined?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here (only 1 space left).
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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In this week's episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, Dunn Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers', and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In this week's episode, we discuss why Sharpe Ratios should be taken with a pinch of salt, the benefits of using a Trading Coach, why consistently aligning with the best odds may be a better strategy than trying to predict future price moves, Dunn Capital’s recent award from HedgeWeek magazine, why ‘the standout hedge fund traders this year have been computer-driven Trend-Followers', and why Risk Management is more important than strategy or philosophy. Questions answered this week include: Why are commodities seen as more risky than equities? Can you use Options in a Trend Following strategy? Should you keep your stop-loss proportionately the same across different time-frames? Are there any markets to be avoided by new managers?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message to play on the show, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 and @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In this episode, we discuss Howard Mark’s comments regarding not losing money being more important than missing opportunities, how solid Trend Following performance can often stay on the edge of randomness, recent opposing comments from the AHL founders on the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, why complexity and complication might actually be different from one another, and we also touch on a white paper which points out an increased inaccuracy with backtests the more complex a system gets. Questions answered this week include: How easy is Trend Following to carry out? Are funds today charging too much in fees? Is there a way to accurately predict future price moves? Daniel Crosby mentioned on a recent Top Traders Unplugged interview, that 'the best investments were the ones that were left alone', what do we think about that statement? How do we keep our cool around friends & family after a very bad week in the markets? Do clients have a wide & varied attitude toward portfolio volatility?
If any listeners would like to leave us a voicemail message, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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“There has never been a better time in the history of the world to be an investor.” - Daniel Crosby
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In today’s episode, we discuss if it’s possible to successfully blur the lines between Discretionary & Systematic Trading, why most of the largest Hedge Funds in the world are Systematic, results of the rolling 10-year returns of Trend Following versus the S&P 500, how diversification can prevent long drawdown periods, why forming an opinion on your stock position can negatively affect how you manage the trade, and we also explain some of the differences between Cash Contracts and Continuous Contracts. Questions answered this week include: Should you beware of high win percentages? Are large drawdowns a normal part of Trend Following? What are the largest up or down moves we’ve ever experienced?
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Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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“If we can follow just a couple of simple rules, we can overcome the behavioral errors which are the plague of so many investors.” - Daniel Crosby
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In our special Anniversary Edition of the Systematic Investor Podcast, we invite Peter Borish onto the show to discuss the differences between Discretionary and Systematic Investing, Peter’s journey from the New York Federal Reserve to his current role at Quad Group, his experience working under Paul Tudor Jones, his opinion on the CTA industry and its current approach to attracting capital, the benefits of having successful partners during the good times, the power of Market Cycles, how perception rather reality can affect a client’s judgement, the effectiveness of Trading Psychology coaches, and we get Peter’s opinions on the current state of the markets. We asked Peter many questions this week, including: Where do you draw the line between normal drawdowns, and feeling compelled to evolve your models? How do you best explain the benefits of a Rules-Based Trading approach to potential clients? What does Quad Group do, and how difficult is it to find new talent? Can the collapse of Index Funds be the main driver behind the next recession?
Thank you to Jim for submitting your voicemail to the show. If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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In this week’s show, we discuss using multiple systems to further enhance Diversification, the differences between a portfolio meeting expectations versus benchmarking it against an Index, Trend Following in-house versus using an experienced Systematic Investment manager, having the temperament to stay the course with your investments, and the effectiveness of trying to predict the next moves of CTAs. Questions answered this week include: Are interest rates lower than usual at the moment? Does the market ever display any meaningful sentiments from the crowds? Do we use any rules for liquidity? What questions would we consider before allocating to a Systematic Trading strategy? What’s the maximum loss of equity we would be willing to accept due to one return driver, such as the Swiss Franc in 2015, and do we ever have to ‘step-in’ and override our systems?
Thanks to Seth for submitting your voicemail to the show. If any listeners would like to leave a message, you can do so here.
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today we discuss the potential dangers of avoiding simplicity, how good Trading is counter-intuitive to human nature, the benefits of doing the same thing over and over, how to earn big profits through aggressive Trend Following strategies, the secrets to building wealth through investing, and how we like to approach correlations in our portfolios. Questions answered this week include: Why are complex strategies more attractive to investors? Is the phrase ‘this time it’s different’ actually true? How important is it to have access to vast amounts of data? How much capital is needed to operate a profitable & diversified Trend Following portfolio? What questions should Investors be asking Fund Managers? Do we use Volume as part of our strategies?
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today, we discuss the potential dangers of taking time away from the markets, the importance of investor behaviour over the ability to analyse data, Morgan Housel’s article on the universal Laws of investing, the differences between buy-and-hold, periodically re-balancing your portfolio, versus a more active Trend Following approach, and the art of profiting from Tail Events. Questions we address this week include: is inter-market analysis a useful tool or a dangerous approach? Should a Trading System be designed to be comfortable to execute? Would a reduced presence of Trend Followers in the market result in slower, more random price movements? What is the overall effect on markets of large participation from Trend Following strategies, and can the space become too overcrowded?
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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This week, we discuss the current state of the Bond market, how the larger, commercial institutions affect overall CTA Trend Following performance, how to deal with the fluctuations in currencies when performing backtests, and we also give our thoughts on various Trading exit strategies. Questions answered this week include: does the majority of CTAs get out of their equity positions when the S&P500 falls below its 200-day moving average? Should you avoid trading markets that perform badly in backtests? Can a system that is working too perfectly be a bad sign? What are the implications for trading every market in the same way? What is the benchmark Sharpe Ratio for Trend Following strategies? Is there a limit to portfolio diversification?
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we discuss the importance of avoiding any emotional attachments to your positions, how correlated markets can affect your portfolio, how to decide which trades to execute when your signals outweigh the amount of equity available to trade, and we also give our thoughts on Margin-to-Equity related to Position Sizing. Questions answered this week include: does uncertainty in the markets have any negative effects on Trend Following strategies? Can the S&P 500 ever be a good comparison for gauging Trend Following performance? Are there any signals that can reliably measure trend strength? When Trend Following strategies aren’t working, should you apply any other strategies? Does Jerry trade Index Futures or single stocks?
Register your interest for our upcoming live event in New York here.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
When it comes to Behavioural Finance, a few people stand out in terms of their contribution to helping us all understand why and how it works. The intersection between Human Behaviour and Quantitative Investing can be difficult to understand for even the most sophisticated investors. Today, I want to share some really important insights from one of my favorite professors, who is also a practitioner of this discipline, namely Andrew Lo of MIT Sloan School of Management and Director of MITs laboratory of Financial Engineering. Many people know Andrew as the father of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, and our conversation was wide ranging, entertaining, and deeply insightful. So enjoy these truly unique take aways from Professor Andrew Lo, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 18 and Episode 19.
This week, we discuss whether commodities are more risky to trade than equities, if a stocks-only Trend Following strategy can be profitable in the long run, if a deep drawdown is worse than a long drawdown, and the importance of over-estimating any possible drawdowns implied by a backtest. Questions answered include: should all Trend Following funds be required to provide Crisis Alpha? Is there ever a good time to override your system and trade outside of the rules? Should you always execute trades from your signals immediately, or sometimes wait for an extra confirmation? Is there an edge to be gained from seeking the perfect entry into a long-term trade? How many positions should you have open at any one time? What can be considered a good amount of leverage?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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It has been said that: 'The biggest room of all, is the room for improvement', and one thing that is clear to see in the amazing careers of today’s guests, is the continued hunger for learning in the quest for an improved investment process. This is something that has led to an unprecedented success for this trio. Today, I share the last key insights from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this clip, we don’t just discuss the importance of learning... but also how you must un-learn certain things in order to move forward. Not least of these, is what the three of them wish the legacy of AHL will be.
So, sit back and relax and enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, and I hope you do, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 13.
In this week’s episode, we discuss Ray Dalio’s recent article on Paradigm Shifts and his comments on the safety of Gold. We also touch on the perils of having too many filters before being able to enter a trade, the importance of having a plan before entering a trade, the benefits of incorporating what you’ve learnt from others about Trading into your own strategies, why you should avoid ‘sure thing’ Trade recommendations from others, and the benefits of buying at the 52-week high as opposed to the 52-week low. Questions this week include: is it better to have multiple exit strategies on a trade or just one single criteria? Should long positions have the same Trading rules as short positions? Is there such a thing as having a ‘healthy fear’ in the markets?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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In 1987, 3 scientists, 1 from Cambridge and 2 from Oxford, were brought together by their shared passion for the markets and for computers. Little did they know, that over the next 3 decades, this passion would lead them to build 3 world-leading multi-billion dollar Systematic Investment businesses. Today, I would like to share another Golden Nugget with you, from my conversation with Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL. In this post, we focus on how markets and the importance of asset allocation have evolved since the beginning; a crucial insight into what has made them so successful. So enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 11.
On this week’s episode, we discuss the resurgence of ‘boutique’ funds, the new Austrian bond which promises a yield of 1.2% over 98 years, why having new markets to Trade can be good thing, and the differences between Volatility Targeting, versus adjusting overall risk exposure according to market conditions. Questions answered this week include, should you really trade a strategy that suits you? What is the ideal sample size when backtesting data, and should you pay attention to valuation when a stock is Trending?
(**Please note that there was a technical issue with Jerry’s audio this week, and therefore his sound quality is not as good as usual. Our apologies for this)
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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One of the great Investment books of all time is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, which is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous Financial Speculator of all time: Jesse Livermore. There is no doubt that even today, 100 years later, we can all learn from of the experiences of successful Investors.
In this Best of Top Traders Unplugged, which I have appropriately titled Reminiscences of 3 Trend Followers, Michael Adam, David Harding and Marty Lueck, also known as the founders of AHL, finally shed light on one of the best kept secrets of modern finance. I sat down with them in Abbey Road Studios in London, on the 30-year anniversary of when they founded AHL. The conversation turned out to be Witty, inspiring and actually, far more entertaining than it had any right to be.
So, enjoy these truly unique takeaways from my conversation with Michael, David and Marty, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Round Table Episode 11.
In this episode, we discuss the recent article from AQR Capital's Cliff Asness on the difficulty of sticking to a strategy through volatile periods, why we may never know if a particular system is broken, the differences between different Trading timeframes, and we give an update on the upcoming live event in New York in October. We also answer some questions such as: Is there a ‘Holy Grail’ of Stop Losses? What is a good way to backtest a Trading system? Is there a point where too much Diversification begins to negatively affect the return profile in a portfolio? What are the possible causes that would move a person to Trade a longer timeframe?
(**Please note that there was a technical issue with Jerry’s audio this week, and therefore he is only on the show for the first 20 minutes)
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
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Today we’re joined on the show by Salem Abraham, a legendary Trend Following Trader, and President of Abraham Trading Company, based in Canadian, Texas. We discuss if Bitcoin has any real value, how Jerry Parker influenced Salem early in his career (and how he later helped Jerry), why we don’t need to understand the reasons for a price going up, why not looking at your returns too often can help your performance, if Stanley Druckenmiller and David Harding are right about the effectiveness of Trend Following in today’s markets, and how being exposed to a variety of markets can reduce risk in a portfolio. Questions answered include: what is Salem’s preferred timeframe to trade in? Why is there such an increase in Return Dispersion among Trend Following funds today compared to a while ago? What are Salem’s thoughts on High-Frequency Trading, Electronic Trading, and Arbitrage? Will Trend Following ever become too over-crowded?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Corey on Twitter:
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And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
On today’s episode, we give our thoughts on the recent Bitcoin rally, the possible benefits of trading single stocks rather than indices, how spending less time looking at the markets can benefit your Trading, and we also offer some other suggestions for better Trading Discipline. Questions answered this week include: what are the main characteristics of a successful Trader? How often should you change your parameter combinations? How short-term did The Turtles trade, and how does that compare to Jerry’s Trading style today? What is the definition of long-term Trading, and should CTAs be more longer-term in their strategies?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Corey on Twitter:
@TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 @MoritzSeibert, & @choffstein
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, as well as being the host of the Flirting With Models podcast. We discuss Corey’s journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than just good or bad returns. Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, why investors should avoid being too short-term, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns. We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In the previous Best of Top Traders Unplugged, we went back in time to re-visit some of the key lessons that many investors learned during the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. It was my way of reminding myself, and you, of something that we as investors must never forget. Today, Robert Carver goes much deeper into the human psychology that makes us ill-equipped to deal with our emotions in a rational way when it comes to making good investment decisions, and also, how you can overcome this behaviour and make your own plan for financial success. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, you can go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 89 and Episode 90.
Can the VIX index be traded as part of a successful Trend Following strategy? Do CTAs have the edge over traditional Hedge Funds by being invested in the less popular markets? Should some parameters be adjusted according to the market being traded, and can you expect returns from Long Positions & Short Positions to be equal? We also give our thoughts on MorningStar’s recent ‘Bubble Index’ experiment, as well as Real Vision’s recent interview on the subject of ‘selling volatility’.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
The financial crisis back in 2008 is slowly fading from the memories of investors. But for those of us who lived and traded through it, many important lessons were learned and usually the hard way. For many investors, it was a period that can be best described as an Emotional Roller-Coaster, where billions of dollars were lost by investment decisions which were primarily driven by emotions. In my hope to make sure that these lessons are not forgotten and wasted, I wanted to share a story that I think many of us can relate to. So I looked through my list of guests to pull a few Golden Nuggets from on this topic, and I thought that Robert Carver, who spent many years at AHL before deciding to share his knowledge about Systematic Trading through his books and blog, would be the ideal candidate.
So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Robert, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, you can go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 89
This week, we discuss the importance of process over outcome, sport analogies and how they can be related to Trading, and whether mistakes are to be avoided completely, or something that you should look forward to learning from. Questions answered this week include: is Ray Dalio’s suggestion of 15 uncorrelated return streams the ultimate way to diversify your portfolio? Are some markets more tradable for Trend Followers than others? Is market ‘noise’ making it harder for Trend Followers, or is the volatility a good thing? How do you deal with strategic retirement decisions as a Trend Follower? Is it in a Hedge Fund’s best interests to stay relatively small and private?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
I get a lot of questions about ideas to help build the best Trading Model, and I understand why many aspiring managers feel that this is critical to their future success. There is though, a lot of truth in the saying: “Most people overvalue ideas and underestimate execution". What I mean by that is, when you want to start and build a business such as a Hedge Fund or CTA, I’m not so sure that the real challenge lies within the design of your investment approach. Nowadays, I think that raising the initial funds from Seed or Early investors have actually become the biggest obstacle for new managers. This is something I have a long experience with, and this is why I wanted to focus on it, in today’s post. So I thought that Kim Bang, who spent many years at a big firm like Bloomberg before starting his own CTA firm, is the perfect person to talk about this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kim, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 77 & Episode 78.
Is ‘Buy & Holding’ the S&P500 index the perfect investment strategy? Should you apply Equal-Weighting across all of your Trading positions? Are Long-term strategies the only way to avoid market noise? Also, we give our thoughts on why you should avoid ‘Fat-Tail Distributions, Volatility versus Risk, how Trend Following strategies tend to ‘melt-up’ rather than crash down, and our upcoming Systematic Investor Series Live Event.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Regardless of the investment strategy you apply to the markets, your strategy or approach needs to evolve over time. The way we did Trend Following back in the 1970s, 1980s, & 1990s is not exactly the way we do it today, and I think this can be said about most, if not all strategies. Now with some strategies, the model decay is so rapid, that if you don’t adapt quickly you can lose your edge. I think short-term strategies are good examples of this. Trend Following, being a longer-term strategy is in my opinion, a lot slower when it comes to Model Decay… so you need to have been around for a really long time in order to have witnessed this evolution.
So when I looked through my list of guests to pull a few golden nuggets from on this theme, I thought that Marty Lueck, the co-founder of AHL and Aspect Capital would be the perfect person for this. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Marty, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 37 & Episode 38.
In today’s episode, we discuss whether or not Trend Following is more effective with Volatility Targeting, how cautious you should be of outlier events, how to use stress-levels as an indicator of how good your Trading strategy is, and we give our thoughts on the concept of ‘risk of ruin’, in relation to the plight of Long-Term Capital management in the late 1990s. Questions this week include: Should you trade in a style that suits your personality? Can 10 years of financial data still be classified as ‘noise’? Should the fundamental causes of market movements affect how you trade? Should you reduce your position in a trade if it goes in your direction far quicker than expected? We also touch on Howard Mark’s comments regarding the skill of catching a ‘falling knife’.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Today, we discuss how to go from managing personal money to third-party money, in this current regulatory environment. We clear up some confusion surrounding the VIX market, touch on stocks vs commodities & how they affect on Trend Following strategies differently, as well as how to avoid a single driver from overly correlating your portfolio. We also answer the questions: how do you define long-term versus short-term? Did Richard Dennis’s Turtles ever added to winning to positions? Are CTAs underrepresented at investing conferences, and are investors losing out by only choosing the most common names?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
I often see the press write that too much money is chasing the same trends, and this being the reason that Trend Following strategies have been performing a little under par in the last few years. So who better to ask if this really is true, than my friend Kathryn Kaminski, who of course co-wrote the bible on Trend Following wit hAlex Greyserman… as well as a book with me, that you can find on my website.
We also discussed how they conducted they research for their book, where they went back a very long time to test if Trend Following models really do work over centuries of data… so I think you will find this part of particular interest.
I hope you enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 & Episode 42.
In today’s episode, we discuss how much Central Banks, or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if Commodities can have bull runs like Equities have had recently, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s episode, we discuss how much Central Banks, or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if Commodities can have bull runs like Equities have had recently, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
In today’s episode, we discuss how much Central Banks, or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if Commodities can have bull runs like Equities have had recently, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
"Over the years, I have allocated to a lot of short term CTAs… but due to the alpha decay factor to short-term models, not really made any money from it." - John Fidler
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt25
We invite special guest Wayne Himelsein onto the show from Logica Capital Advisers, in Los Angeles. Wayne explains his journey into starting a Hedge Fund, some of the lessons he has learned over the years, and some of the rules that keep him from repeating past mistakes. He describes why he loves Trend Following, why embracing ‘uncertainty’ can have a positive effect on Trading, and how he typically constructs a portfolio. We also discuss why Wayne prefers long trades over short trades, how he uses Options, if stop-losses are a good idea, and if volatility has an affect on the size of his positions.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, @MoritzSeibert & @WayneHimelsein
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Are CTAs giving the wrong message by charging low performance fees? Is there a perfect amount of AUM to aim for? Can Systematic Trading keep you happy? How accurately can we predict future returns? We discuss whether Trend Following is easy enough to do at home, or if you should do it through a reputable fund instead. What sort of things can be found in a ‘Research Graveyard’? Should you use Stop Losses, and if so, how and where should you place them? We answer the question of what makes a strategy robust, as well as how to avoid over complicating a Trading System.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
For those of us who have been on the manager side for a while, you'll know that investors love to analyse decades of performance data before deciding which manager they are going to invest with, and that makes a lot of sense. But we also come across investors who subsequently redeem based on just a year or two after they invested, which is usually just down to bad luck and unfortunate timing. This does not seem logical, but it does relate to the short conversation I want to share with you today, where I discuss the role and importance of track-records & back-tests with Scot Billington. We also ended up discussing an interesting twist to their research, which led them to abandon taking any Short Trades in their model. So enjoy these unique insights from Scot, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 25 & Episode 26.
"Not all managed future strategies are created equal." - John Fidler.
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt24
Does Systematic Trading completely eliminate all the emotions from the process? Is it wise to use Stop-Losses? Should CTAs target low-volatility & average returns, or high returns with higher possible volatility? Can a finely-crafted Trading System be considered in the same way as a fine piece of art? Are all Trend Following systems essentially the same? We also discuss if intricate rules are better than ‘broader brush-strokes’, if it really is ‘difficult times’ for Trend Following or simply Recency Bias, as well as touching on the value of managing and owning your emotions throughout a trade. Also, we discuss how to deal with an upcoming Futures contract rollover, and answer the question: just how important is the ‘Execution Desk’ at a Trading Firm?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Kathryn Kaminski is one of my favorite people to discuss Trend Following with, because she has a great way of simplifying and explaining some of the key concepts of the strategy. Today, we talk about the phrase Crisis Alpha, and how it may be better to think about these strategies as Divergent strategies, because in reality we don’t need a crisis in order for Trend Following to do well. Years like 2014 and 2017 are great examples of this. Q1 of 2019 is perhaps a more recent example too. We also touch on Convergent strategies, which, in my mind, are 'short volatility' strategies- even if not all investors realize this. I think 2018 gave us a taste of what is to come when volatility starts to re-emerge in the markets. So enjoy these unique takeaways from my conversation with Kathryn, and if you would like to listen to the conversation in full, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 & Episode 42.
Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade- and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
Often, a Trend following strategy is described as being a 'Black Box', as if something bad was going on. So it was refreshing to hear Scott Foster talk about Trend Following as being in fact, a 'White Box', or a 'Transparent Box', in comparison to other algorithmic strategies, which are often embraced by investors to a much larger degree... so I’m delighted to share this blog post with you, from a conversation I had with Scott Foster, where he also touched on the essential question: Why are there trends, and why ought there be trends in the future?If you would like to listen to the full conversation just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 27 and Episode 28.
In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast.
On today’s show, we give our thoughts on ‘Evidence-Based Investing’, David Harding’s latest comments on Trend Following, how much is too much ‘Open Risk’, as well as answering: what are some of the ‘Trend Commandments’? Also, we discuss whether it’s safe or not to buy after a big upside price break or sell after a big gap down, whether Volatility should be ‘targeted’ in your portfolio, and if a system can be designed handle 'parabolic moves' better.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
Discussion points this week include, Volatility vs Risk, the differences between Trading and Investing, Zero Hedge’s comment about CTAs & Trend Followers being useless, and the NY Times article on high market skepticism while prices continue to go up. Also, should CTAs be used as a tool just for ‘Crisis Alpha’, or something more? Can Trend Following be used as a timing tool? What is the best sample size and look-back period when testing a system?
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
Is it more profitable to be longer-term? When is Trend Following the wrong strategy to use? Should you ‘ease’ into a trade, or go all in, and how should you adjust position size? Other talking points include where to trade Single Stock Futures, how to include Options into a Trend Following strategy, as well as recent quotes from Stanley Druckenmiller about being greedy in the markets, and the quotes from Howard Marks on the psychology of the markets.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
Would you believe somebody if they told you they had been very successful in the investment world, by looking at the just markets once a week? Everything, and everyone, seems to be getting increasingly more short-term in their nature, so it seems counter-intuitive that you can run an actively managed trading strategy by only checking for new signals once a week. Nevertheless, this is exactly what Scot Billington and his partners have done.
When I spoke to Scot a while back, he shared some great stories and real-life experiences, that had led him and his partners to this realization, and ultimately, their unique way of implementing a Trend Following approach. I’m excited to share some of these key takeaways with you today. I hope you enjoy this short post, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 25, and also Episode 26.
Discussion points this week include: Where to start if you want to become a Trend Following Trader, whether or not to trade markets differently, Bloomberg’s article on the supposed Failing of Trend Following, how strategies can cope and adapt during drawdowns, how to know when you are truly diversified or not, and a lot more.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
"This is where the populism intercedes with the market risks. I think people look at these risks as independent risks, so they're not looking at them and how they interrelate with the ecosystem of financial products, as well." - Chris Cole.
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt23
Meb Faber joins the show to discuss his journey into Trend Following, where Trend Following funds have gone wrong in terms of attracting assets & growing AUM, why he started his company Cambria Investments and the difficulties that this involved, the perceived safety of US Treasuries, Mutual Funds vs ETFs, and a lot more.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Follow Meb, Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @MebFaber, @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
"I think the idea is that the math of quantitative easing really matters. It's all about the shift at the margin." - Dan Stone.
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt22
Topics discussed this week include: the 200-day Moving Average, the benefit of tried and tested strategies vs new and trendy strategies, drawdowns as a necessary component of a robust strategy, optimum startup capital, and a lot more.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
The concept of Trend Following has been around for a long time, but it wasn’t until a few years back, that the Bible on Trend Following was written by Kathryn Kaminski and Alex Greyserman. Today, I am delighted to share some of the interesting lessons, insights, and key things that Kathryn Kaminski took away from the long road to publishing this book. I hope you enjoy reading this, and if you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 41 and Episode 42.
You can download a free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list, by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter: @TopTradersLive
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
"There's a lot more data in some ways, but there is also a lot less interesting information that is differentiated." - Jake Barton
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt21
"Being a mid-twenties analyst during the 2008 financial crisis was a very eye opening experience, and it showed me the importance of being methodical and critical, and not quick to make decisions whenever you're faced with adversity in investing." - Steven Wilson
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt20
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Follow Niels, Jerry & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09 & @MoritzSeibert
Feel free to leave an honest review on iTunes.
A while back, I had a very enjoyable time speaking to Scott Foster from Dominion Capital Management, who is not your typical Trader. He draws from a wide range of influences such as Aristotle, Magic, and Austrian Economics. I am delighted to share some of these deep insights with you in this short blog post, and I hope you enjoy these unique views and observations from Scott. If you would like to listen to the full conversation just go to Top Traders Unplugged Episode 27 and Episode 28.
You can download a free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list, by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com
Follow Niels on Twitter: @TopTradersLive
Leave an honest review on iTunes
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
A few years back, I had a great discussion with die-hard Trend Follower, Scot Billington. I would like to share some key moments with you, including how to perceive past track records, and also some of the differences between the long side and the short side. If you would like to listen to the full conversation, just go to Top Traders Episode 25.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
"If someone wants a better return, they have no choice but to take additional risk, no matter how they feel about risk or how risk averse they may be." - Sol Waksman.
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt19
"I was going through one of those inevitable losing streaks [early in my career] and I had a fundamental question. Does anyone make money trading the futures markets, or is it all a casino set up for the benefit of the exchanges?" - Sol Waksman
TopTradersUnplugged.com/rt18
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
A while back I had a very memorable time talking with Anders Lindell, discussing many trading related topics. There was one part in particular that I want to share where Anders shared his understanding on US institutions and how they deal with asset allocation and position sizing.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
At the very beginning of my podcasting career, I had a great conversation with Mike Dever covering many trading related topics, one of which were the different approaches to trading. And there was One segment I really liked in particular, and which I would like to share with you today. It was a segment where Mike shared his own systematic approach to trading and as you listen to it, we need to keep in mind that Mike was not always a systematic trader.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
"To me, [the blockchain] is the most secure electronic security ever created." - Tim McCourt.
https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/rt17
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
"The reason that I'm so bullish on crypto is that it's the first fixed supply asset that has ever existed in human history, with all of the characteristics of money, but without the vice of overcreation, which has happened 100% of the time in human history." - Roy Niederhoffer
https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/rt16
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
During a conversation I had with expert Bill Dreiss, we discussed many topics, all with great value. One part in particular I found really interesting, and which I would like to share with you, was when I asked Bill how he defines risk.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
"What is your edge? Why do you think you have it? Why do you think it will persist?" - Doug Greenig
TopTradersUnplugged.com/109
It’s not often you get to sit down with a Turtle, let alone the father of the Turtle Experiment, and when I do I find it fascinating learning about the different experiences and outcomes that emerged from what really can be boiled down to 2 to 3 weeks of training in how to use trading rules to make money in the markets. What was truly unique about the conversation I want to share a few key takeaways from today, is that Richard Dennis was joined by two of his Turtles, namely Jerry Parker and Brian Proctor, where they shared some of their personal impressions from their time together…things that has not really ever been discussed publically. We even discussed their research in to “counter-trend” models…not something you would think the Turtles would spend time on…and of course just having Richard Dennis share his wisdom was huge.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
In any systematic trading strategy choosing the right combination of parameters for your model or approach is critical. So today, I wanted to share a valuable takeaway from a conversation with Bill Dreiss, where we discuss his thoughts, experience and approach to identifying parameter sets which I think you will find to be rather different to most managers. Bill and I discussed this as well as many other super interesting aspects of trading from his 40+ year career and I think these lessons will benefit you immensely.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
Kathryn Kaminski and I had the opportunity to sit down with Nigol Koulajian, the founder of Quest Partners, in which he shared his deep insights in many areas of trading. During our conversation, there were a few short segments that I particularly enjoyed and I would love to share them with you here. Below you can learn about Nigols take on the problems with Smart Beta, and also his explanation of Filtering being ͞the Holy Grail.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
In today’s post, I would like to share with you some really great moments and unique takeaways from a conversation I had with Marty Bergin, the president and owner of DUNN Capital Management, where Marty shares his views on Return Dispersion and how those experiences, together with extensive research, has enabled them to produce a more robust trend following process for their clients.
It’s a great privilege for me to invite you in behind the scenes of what the conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors is like. Jerry Parker, Moritz Seibert and I get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting.
Today I would like to share some really great and unique takeaways from a conversation I had with the one and only Richard Dennis, the father of the Turtle Project from back in the 1980’s as well as two of his turtles, namely Brian Proctor and Jerry Parker. In our conversation we put the record straight for the first time on a number of myths about the Turtle experiment including How the Turtles got their name, and if the original rules that were applied with great success 30+ years ago would still be relevant today, and also how long it took Jerry and Brian to make sense of them.
Today I would like to share with you some life lessons and learnings from expert Robert Sinnott, where he shares his in depth knowledge of the modern evolution of systematic trading, in the form of Machine learning, and how machine learning has effected and impacted their short term and long term strategies. I’m pretty sure you are going to learn something valuable from what Robert shared with me.
Kathryn Kaminski and I had the opportunity to sit down with Nigol Koulajian, the founder of Quest Partners, in which he shared his wealth of experience including life lessons and even his take on the modern scientific trading systems that are used today. One of topics which I particularly liked, and would like to share with you here, was his view on the VIX and Volatility trading within the managed futures industry and also outside of the industry.