The Long Only Podcast: Recent Episodes
Taylor Frigon Capital Management
With a combination of optimism, good humor and old fashioned common sense, Gerry Frigon, CIO of Taylor Frigon Capital Management, shares his perspectives and knowledge of the world of investments and free enterprise with his Director of Operations, Doug Connolly.
Sure, the rapid increase in interest rates had some negative consequences. But, setting the real estate "lock in" effect aside, the rates shouldn't impact the economy that much. We are still at historically modest rates and might just need to buckle up for "higher for longer".
The boys discuss the governments hand in inflation and the fact that the full effect of if have been masked by many household simply having two wage earners.
At least, don't retire completely. People need to work and a lot of our assumptions about retirement might need to be re-thought as longevity and productivity get extended.
Gerry breaks down the IPS market and is the economy actually good? Then Doug talks about why your family shouldn't build your coffin.
Gerry and Doug comment on the red hot crypto markets and then take a shot at the experts.
Nvidia blows it out of the water, but is this just another example of the uneven stock market?
Doug tosses some quick-hitter questions at Gerry about the economy, the stock market and cryptocurrency. He even gets him to actually make predictions (even though that isn't what we do!)
For a long time, the markets have primarily cared about what interest rates are doing. As we take a pause and try to figure out the next move for rates, Gerry discusses the current positive earnings season and a possible return to fundamentals.
Are small caps (still) at an inflection point and should first time homebuyers wait for lower interest rates?
The guys discuss whether politics matter, the pitfalls of overplanning around taxes, and "What are fertile fields of growth?"
Gerry and Doug discuss the pending Chevron Deference court case and 2 essential qualities in a good investment.
In the wake of crypto's rebound, Gerry discusses an actual case for a token and then dispenses advice on budget friendly dinner dates.
-Will lower interest rates buoy the market in 2024?
-Gerry quantifies the Latte Effect.
-Should you pay off your mortgage?
Gerry and Doug look at 4 relationships that are key to succeeding financially and using it wisely. You relationship with God, with yourself, with your spouse, and with your network of friends.
The Fed "kinda sorta" gives the market permission go up, a surprising defense of whole life insurance and a primer on derivatives.
There is no reward with risk, which is basically another word for suffering. Plus, the Latte Effect and what do do with cash.
More confirmation of a market inflection point, compound growth, get an estate plan and this a complex person who had both some good and not good ideas.
Could the market have actually found a bottom? Plus, short selling (and why Gerry hates it), company sponsored retirement plans and our Free Enterprise Saint (or Sinner) of the week.
Have interest rates peaked? Plus, Gerry's favorite savings plan, mutual funds basics and a little bit Domino's founder, Tom Mongahan.
Gerry discussed the role of truth in investing and, at the end, gets back to basics as he breaks down what stock is.
What is a business worth? Gerry is seeing an amount of increasing cases where the whole is less than the sum of its balance sheet.
ETFs started out as a way to facilitate passive investing, but they have gotten more and more specialized over the years. By definition, there has been a bit of a style drift.
If dividends are so great, why doesn't Amazon declare them? Gerry and Doug talk about the (relatively) recent de-emphasis of inflation.
First, Doug and Gerry address the obvious big issue of the day. Then go into the issue of a few big companies, their outsized effect on the indices and the prospects for that to continue into the future.
Doug's recent reading selection leads him to the profound (which is obvious to most people) conclusion that not all books are edifying.
But, Ship of Dreams is one of the good ones.
[Sorry for the poor audio this episode. Our levels where off and we are adjusting to our new studio].
Gerry discusses the features and bugs of investing in private companies versus public companies.
Gerry and Doug talk about an article in The Free Press about men leaving the dating pool and what this could mean for all of us.
Gerry and Doug peruse the headlines...which basically just turns into a discussion about the UAW strike and a mild rant about rich power being obsessed with (allegedly) elite colleges.
Some things never change. Some do. Successful investing requires us to recognize the difference between the two.
Doug complains about his checking account balance needing constant monitoring, which Gerry uses to springboard into a conversation about George Gilder's concept of time as it relates to inflation.
Find George on Amazon here.
Gerry pulls rank and asks the questions this week, getting to the reasons for why we do what we do.
It's episode 65! That means this show is old enough to apply for Medicare.
Gerry and Doug talk about another analyst who shares their belief that the Fed is beating a dead horse when it comes to inflation.
Bad management is sometimes hard to define, but obviously, it can kill a company and ruin an otherwise good product. Gerry opines on some management red flags.
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After talking about country music and college football, Gerry tries to keep his blood pressure down as he breaks down the Madoff series on Netflix.
Gerry minces no words when it comes to his opinion of short selling and discusses the short squeeze on one of our companies. Like in all short squeezes, what goes around comes around.
Gerry and Doug talking about business efficiency, paradigm shifts and bowling with two hands,
What do aging baby boomers have in common with poor investing? Listen and find out as Gerry makes the connection. (Actually, given the average person's investing habits, it's not that much of a leap.)
Gerry talks about the potential market size and the company's place in that market impacts how much he thinks a company is worth.
Gerry talks about Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, unintended consequences of things like decimalization and liquidity.
Gerry proposes a new name for the podcast. Gerry uses the example of Carvana (full disclosure: we own it) as a window into his thinking when it comes to evaluating a company.
(With apologies for Doug's audio)
Doug leads with a TV ratings statistics that points to the atomization of mass culture and Gerry shoehorns in his (justified) disdain for ESG.
Gerry dissects the headlines on a major website as an illustration of why the news is broken and our focus on the immediate hasn't served us well at all.
In a word, "yes". Gerry opines on why stocks are saying "normal" movements in some stocks that would have raised some eyebrows back in the old days.
Mark Zuckerberg's choice of hobby during the pandemic shows us once again that, whatever the rules are, the rich are going to get by.
Gerry and Doug parlay years of watching LA Law and Ally McBeal into a discussion on an upcoming SCOTUS case and bitcoin happenings.
Gerry and Doug talk about the regulatory state, crypto, sitting in cash for decades and bank panics during the Gilded Age.
Is "go woke, go broke" true and how does what is "good" fit into free enterprise? Gerry and Doug talk about Bud Light.
Gerry bemoans short term-ism in the markets and reiterates the need to focus on the business. Doug confesses a modicum of perma-bear sympathies.
As bad as inflation has been, Gerry and Doug are skeptical about claims that it will devolve into the dreaded hyperinflation. Still, they like crypto.
Instead of being mad at the Fed this week, Gerry is mad at traffic. Once's he's done with that, he and Doug talk about the advantages of venture capital, the good old days (and how they weren't always so good) and whatever else comes to mind.
The guys rehash what everyone is hashing: Silicon Valley Bank. Then, Doug hijacks the show and lets loose on Covid policies.
Does the Fed have as much control over inflation as we think? Also, Gerry and Doug finally realize that it is hard to complain about over-focusing on the Fed without over-focusing on the Fed.
Is the recent rise in automation a blatant attempt to crowd out humans...or does the declining birth rate indicate that we aren't holding up our end of the bargain?
Gerry explains what "Long Only" means to the uninitiated and Doug ask Gerry if he ever got the business right but go the stock wrong.
Gerry and Doug discussion predictions, the Phillips Curve, economists, etc. as they both try not to cough.
Gerry and Doug talk about books, lessons learned, changes not made and basically just try to avoid talking about the currently rising market (as of this recording).
After repeatedly being fooled by some previous upswings in the market, Gerry and Doug talk about if the worm has finally turned for good.
If we could stop paying attention for a while, it would be a lot easier on everyone involved.
Doug (the one whose audio is subpar this week) asks Gerry what are some possible things that could initiate a turnaround in the economy/stock market for 2023.
Bad economy, inflation, bad president, belligerent Russia ...Doug thinks it feels like the 70s. Find out if Gerry agrees or if he sets Doug straight.
Gerry lays out more of his thoughts on FTX and how it's more of a "fraud and stupidity issue" than a "crypto issue".
Gerry and Doug lament the market, which is currently taking up residence at the corner of Bad and Mediocre.
Gerry and Doug talk books and then Gerry tells Doug why "free enterprise" isn't the same as "free markets".
Gerry and Doug talk about the events of last week...despite the fact that they will probably be undone by the events of this week.
Gerry and Doug go around the horn on a variety of issues, some of which don't even start with the letter "F".
Gerry and Doug lay this frustrating quarter to rest...and wish Mark Farner a Happy Birthday!
Gerry and Doug revisit the Fed and its propensity to always do what they don't want it to do.
Gerry lays out his case against the detestable, un-American practice of short selling. Ok, maybe that's overstating it, but he just doesn't like it.
Could the worst be over for the economy? Crazier things have happened (literally, many of them since 2020).
Gerry and Doug lay out the arguments for and against ESG and it's unnatural role in investing... actually, they don't lay out any arguments for it, they just talk about why it is ridiculous.
To counterbalances the negativity, Gerry lays out positive and encouraging developments in the investing universe.
The guys riff in this one, as Doug relates the current economy to an Eagles frontman and Gerry resists the urge to mock him mercilessly.
Taylor Frigon's longtime Director of Research, Dave Mathisen, joins the show to discuss the process, his time in the military and his similarities to a well-known Patrick Swayze character.
Gerry has his "this generation has it too easy" moment as he expounds to Doug on the virtues of suffering as it relates to investing.
This week, Gerry lays out the problems over too much market-watching and the downside of liquidity.
Gerry and Doug dig into faith, first principles, worldviews and values to discuss how they effect our business and why they matter to our firm.
Gerry takes the focus off of interest rates and opines on the problems of the regulatory state and makes the case for pro-growth policies.
Doug gives Gerry the third degree over with certain investing trends of the last few years qualify as fads or as legitimate investments.
Gerry and Doug ask the proverbial investor the question "Did You Think it Was Going To Be Easy?" and how it relates to the monetary environment and the discipline of investing in tough times.
Gerry lays out the benefits of approaching investing by looking for good companies, as opposed to merely counting on the overall market to rise.
Whether they like it our not, many Americans are de facto investors in real estate. Gerry breaks down his thoughts on how the real estate market could effect stocks.
Gerry and Doug talk about the how the individual investor should be responding in the current market environment.
Optimism isn't just for Pollyanna. Gerry talks about how seeing the glass as half full makes for better investing performance.
In this first episode, host Gerry Frigon and co-host discuss Doug Connolly, Taylor Frigon's methodology, active management and some of the unseen issues with the trend towards passive management.