Stocks & Coffee with the StockGeek: Recent Episodes
Travis the StockGeek
A hedge fund pro breaks down daily stock market news, fundamental stock analysis, company earnings reports, and macroeconomic outlooks to help you make better investing decisions
US economic data continues to look resilient despite the risks of more Fed hikes; Airbnb and US travel are doing just fine despite bogus claims of an Airbnb rental collapse
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The housing market and US economy remain surprisingly resilient despite jawboning from the Fed about higher rates; Homebuilder stocks and big tech stocks are still looking quite strong despite a pullback in the Nasdaq this week; Will there be a cage match between Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg?
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Stocks remain resilient despite worries about liquidity, the Fed, and the economy; Next week the CPI report and Fed meeting could usher in more volatility; the SEC goes after crypto exchanges; I take an in depth look at greek food chain CAVA, which is aiming to IPO this summer
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Markets move higher after a debt ceiling resolution that doesn't force austerity on the economy; AI remains a hot theme in the market and the Fed remains a key risk; Energy and retail stocks are lagging but could the OPEC+ meeting change the trajectory?; Uranium is a unique bright spot in the current market this week
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Breaking down the shockingly good numbers and guidance for Nvidia, which is seeing its stock price rise another 25%+ today; The debt ceiling crisis is moving closer to a climax; Retailer earnings are a mixed bag; Stocks are holding up despite a rise in bond yields and a hawkish Fed, but mainly due to bright spots in the tech sector
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Tech stocks in the NASDAQ, especially Nvidia, continue to rip higher despite the prospect of a US government shutdown in June or July due to the debt ceiling; Yields are on the rise as well but stocks are still bullish; Walmart is a bright spot in a muted retail sector; Energy remains weak
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A recap of earnings season, the banking crisis, interest rates & inflation, the Fed, and more. Stocks and the economy have been resilient but will that continue? And what areas might be interesting to go digging for stock picks?
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Worries over the banking system have abated (for now at least). Big banks and regional banks report earnings this week and JPM is a big winner while everyone else is reporting deposit outflows. Inflation is still cooling but the market expects the Fed to keep hiking rates in May despite rising recession fears. Could investors be underestimating the debt ceiling fight as well?
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Recapping what's happened in markets in the first quarter of 2023, including large cap stock strength, bank and real estate stress, worries over CRE and the US dollar, the Fed, interest rates, AI, and more
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Contagion fears are spreading to European banks, with Credit Suisse in particular under heavy scrutiny; Inflation worries are starting to shift into concerns about the overall economy; the energy sector sees a big selloff as crude inventories rise more than expected
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Silicon Valley Bank, a top 20 US bank by total assets, will be taken over by the FDIC. A bank run caused deposits to flow out leaving SIVB with losses on its bond portfolio and ultimately a capital shortfall. I discuss why I think this issue is unique to SIVB among top 20 banks in the US. The Fed will likely be forced to put more aggressive rate hikes on hold, although a key CPI report next Tuesday could alter the picture
Stocks bounced last week as yields quieted down; AI continues to be a hot theme; Steel prices rip higher with Chinese economic improvement; All eyes on Chairman Powell's congressional testimony and the jobs report later this week
Recapping market action over the past couple of weeks as strong economic data pushes up bond yields and pushes down stocks
CPI comes in slightly above expectations, leading to ups and downs in stocks; The lagged shelter component of inflation will remain a problem through the spring but will the market look past it? Palantir rises after its first GAAP profitable quarter despite near term margin headwinds; An activist may be building a position in SHOP but I don't like the current valuation
Stocks start the week with solid gains ahead of the big January CPI report that comes out tomorrow morning; Is Norfolk Southern at risk of a big liability related to its train derailment and chemical spill (the market does not yet think so); The yield curve inversion signals concerns about recession but that could be many months away; MNDY pops after robust revenue growth guidance; FSLY spikes higher on an analyst price target upgrade; FIS sinks after issuing weak 2023 guidance;
LYFT stock crashes after a weaker than expected quarter and pulling its 2024 profit target; Paypal reports solid numbers and guides to strong 2023 earnings per share growth; Expedia reports a mixed quarter but thinks its stock is a good value; Russia cuts crude exports, helping US energy stocks; US stocks experience a tough week overall; A significant CPI inflation report looms large next Tuesday
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Disney's Bob Iger is back to attempt a transformation including cost cuts and a possible dividend reinstatement; Applovin sees advertising stabilizing; Tesla keeps chugging along ahead of March 1st Investor day; Affirm sinks after merchant numbers decline; Weekly jobless claims tick up; Germany inflation remains elevated;
Google falls on concerns that Microsoft's embrace of chatGPT within Bing and the Edge browser will cause Google Search to los market share and profitability; NEWR soars on earnings; CVS officially announces acquisition of OSH; MANU may be acquired by the Qataris; UBER delivers a strong earnings report while LUMN and CPRI deliver ugly earnings reports
BBBY announces a very dilutive capital raise to try to avoid bankruptcy liquidation; Chegg doesn't see an impact from ChatGPT but the stock falls anyway; CVS reportedly nears a deal to acquire Oak Street Health for 10 Billion; Meme stocks take a breather; The market awaits Fed Chairman Powell's speech
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Stocks are taking a step back after strong employment data last Friday; Blue Apron hasn't set a Q4 earnings date yet which could mean something is happening behind the scenes with the company; Some AI stocks remain hot
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The market loves META's Q4 report after the company commits to expense control, better profitability, and buybacks in 2023; Tech stocks moon; The Fed raises 25bps and tries to talk tough but the market calls the bluff; Apple, Amazon, and Google earnings reports are on deck...will the party continue?
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AI related stocks are mooning; Spotify shines while Snapchat dumps; All eyes on the Fed meeting today
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Stocks are making big moves again today especially in the NASDAQ; American Express reports strong earnings while Intel reports a stinker; Next week will be very busy with corporate earnings, a Fed meeting, an ECB meeting, and unemployment data for January
Microsoft earnings were lackluster as weakness in personal computing and devices offset strength in cloud; Microsoft also forecasts a slowdown in cloud growth next quarter; With cloud slowing down the market starts to worry about other enterprise software stocks; CapitalOne earnings come in light as the company provisions for more normalized credit losses and a 5% unemployment rate in 2023; Google is hit with a US antitrust lawsuit and looks vulnerable to several issues ahead of its Q4 earnings report next week
Markets started the morning in wild fashion with halts across stocks on the NYSE due to glitches however things calmed down significantly; Microsoft will kick off Q4 earnings reporting for big tech after the market closes today
Stocks are rallying again here on Monday across all sectors; More layoffs in tech are announced with Spotify's 6% workforce reduction; Microsoft finalizes their investment into OpenAI; Activist investor Elliott takes a stake in Salesforce
Google and Wayfair announce workforce reductions, sending their stocks higher; Silicon Valley Bank and Ally Bank pop after earnings are less bad than feared; We look forward to a heavy earnings calendar next week
Discover Financial assumes unemployment will rise and makes higher credit provisions, dinging the stock this morning; a budget could loom for the US govt which is weighing on alternative energy stocks today; stocks pull back on a slow news day
Markets reverse course after weak economic data and an inverted yield curve stoke deeper recession fears; Microsoft announces layoffs; I also talk about how a booming trend in new weight loss drugs could reshape healthcare & society
It's a relatively quiet day in stocks, bonds, and commodities; GS and MS report banking weakness but balance sheets still look relatively healthy; Silvergate Capital (SI) however looks like it could be on the brink of disaster if deposit outflows continue
JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup report their Q4 2022 earnings results; Income rises despite rising credit provisions...should we be worried?
The December CPI data came in line with expectations, cooling for a sixth straight month to 6.5%. The market moves to pricing in a less aggressive Fed. TSM reports robust earnings but forecasts a slowdown in semi demand for the first half of 2023. Airlines & travel stocks are rising after American raises guidance
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Highly shorted stocks are squeezing today ahead of the CPI report tomorrow but caution may be warranted; Solar stocks & alternative energy stocks continue their recent strength as well
BBBY gains despite horrible holiday sales performance; Microsoft may be investing 10 Billion into OpenAI; Is CVS going to make another expensive acquisition?; I also explain why I think NVDA stock could have downside risk given weakening datacenter spending
Stocks are in the green again today with tech, semis, EV, and real estate stocks leading the pack. I preview the week ahead with CPI data and bank earnings on the horizon
Stocks rally to end the first week of 2023 on a positive note; The jobs data looks strong on the surface but it weak underneath the surface; The services side of the economy may now be contracting
Solid jobs data continues for the month of December but a big unemployment report looms tomorrow morning; Some enterprise software stocks hit new lows; Silvergate Capital falls over 40% and BBBY falls over 20% after a going concern warning
Manufacturing activity in the US continues to slow but stocks are rallying; I cover the highlights of major wall street macro forecasts for 2023
Tesla misses analyst delivery estimates for Q4 and starts 2023 down 10%; Energy starts off weak; Which S&P 500 laggards will recover in 2023?
Stocks stage a huge rally as tax loss selling for 2022 is mostly completed; I discuss Weedmaps (MAPS), a stock in the cannabis industry which is down 85% year to date and down 97% from its peak
Stocks remain in a sour mood as we near the end of 2022; I identify some potential candidates for early 2023 bounces due to the January Effect
All signs point to China re-opening after the winter Covid wave; Tesla makes another new low; End of year tax loss selling exacerbates downtrends in some stocks
Stocks are in a sour mood as we approach the end of the year due to central bank policies and fears of recession; I think travel stocks like ABNB and EXPE are getting cheap; An activist hedge fund prods Grayscale and GBTC
All eyes on the Fed for the last meeting of 2022. What will happen in 2023? Is recession imminent?
Stocks have a post Thanksgiving dip; Is mall traffic continuing its secular decline?; An inverted US govt yield curve has people concerned about recession
We have a shortened holiday week in US stock markets; I discuss the strange situation surrounding the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
Target delivered a lower than expected earnings forecast and had cautious comments about the state of the consumer as the retailer currently sees it; other retail stocks sell off despite strong October retail sales in the US; Check out travisdevitt.com if you're interested in receiving my new daily newsletter
Stocks rally on easing US-China tensions and solid retailer earnings reports; thinking through a listener's question about "where would I deploy fresh capital today"?
Stocks give back some of the big gains from last Friday; Retailer earnings and retail sales reports loom big this week
A lower than expected reading on the Consumer Price Index for October sends stocks soaring and yields plummeting; midterm elections seem to have a neutral impact on markets for now; crypto is still dealing with the fallout from the FTX collapse
Software stocks are down big after some notable earnings reports from TWLO, TEAM, CVNA, BIGC, NET, DDOG, DKNG, OPEN, and others. Optimism and commodities rise on news that China could soon scale back on zero covid policies while the dollar takes a step back
Stocks remain weak after the Fed meeting yesterday; I cover lots of earnings movers today including VMEO, RUN, ETSY, HUBS, UA, HOOD, BKNG, ATUS, FIS, LUMN, FTNT, QCOM, ROKU, and PTON
The Fed hiked 75 basis points as expected but stayed hawkish, especially at the press conference, sending stocks into a late day tailspin
Markets are slightly negative after some mixed macro data out this morning; UBER, SOFI, SONY, and SPG deliver good earnings reports
It's a big week for earnings, macro data, and the Fed. I preview the week and also answer a listener's question about how I prep and analyze quarterly earnings reports
Apple reports solid results while Amazon reports a stinker earnings report; Stock indices continue to rally despite weakness in big tech this week
META stock down over 20% after reporting one of the worst quarters and guidance ever; It's not all bad news though as NOW and SHOP deliver better than expected results; CS is down after restructuring and capital raising announcements; ALGN continues to struggle
Google and Spotify are down after Q3 earnings reports show expense bloat weighing on profits; Microsoft beats but is down slightly on weaker forward guidance; WING, ENPH, and HOG rise after solid earnings; Declining yields and a declining dollar are still supportive of a stock rally in the short term
Stocks rally again as yields fall; strong earnings from GM and MEDP; LOGI rises with maintained guidance despite weaker sales; XRX and CLF fall on earnings results; Big tech earnings are on deck after the market close today
US stocks are in the green despite a huge China stock selloff; I give a preview of what investors are looking for this week with mega cap tech company earnings reports; And we're still watching government bond yields closely for signs of stress
Central banks are intervening in currency markets; US 30 year government bond yields are worrying; SNAP has another disappointing earnings report; Hospital stocks and SIVB also disappoint on earnings while AXP and SAM deliver solid earnings; Next week is a huge earnings week for mega cap tech stocks
Stocks continue to chop around despite mostly decent earnings reports and low unemployment; Prime minister Truss resigns after just 6 weeks; Tesla falls despite a slight earnings beat
Netflix returns to subscriber growth and beats expectations; Ally is starting to see credit trends worsen somewhat; Airlines are doing well; Tesla earnings on deck for later today
Earnings reports from GS, LMT, and JNJ look solid. Activists take aim at Salesforce (CRM) and we await a big earnings report from Netflix (NFLX) after the market close today
Stocks enjoy good gains on Monday as UK yields pull back and bank earnings give some comfort to investors
Stocks had a crazy intraday move up yesterday but are giving some of it back today; JPM and big bank earnings look decent so far but we have a lot more companies earnings reports to look forward to next week
Stocks dump early then stage a big unexpected rally after the CPI inflation release. September inflation came in slightly higher than expected...when will there be relief? Early earnings reports from Dominos and TSM don't look too bad
PEP earnings look good; Markets not shaken by PPI; Cruise stocks get an upgrade; Is META a good value play here?
Stocks attempt to rally after four consecutive down days as we await critical inflation and earnings data later in the week
It looks like another volatile week ahead with the September CPI report on Thursday and bank earnings reports on Friday
The US jobs report for September was strong as expected and the Fed remains very aggressive, causing concern for stocks and bond markets. Will the Fed lead us into crisis? Ultimately this could lead to opportunity and juice dividend yield plays deeper into the cycle
Job cuts and initial unemployment claims ticked up; Yields on short term govt bonds also tick up; Stocks remain choppy ahead of important macro data tomorrow as well as Q3 earnings season later this month
Market mood swings from optimism to pessimism as OPEC+ announces production cuts and jobs data comes in strong (good news is bad news)
Stocks put up big gains for a second straight day as the market becomes more optimistic that Central Banks will need to pivot away from aggressive interest rate hikes; POSH is being acquired well below trading prices from last year
Stocks rally and interest rates tumble despite rumors of a banking crisis at Credit Suisse over the weekend; Energy and metal stocks lead the charge as OPEC mulls supply cuts and silver prices surge; Peloton announces a big partnership; the SEC takes action against large influencers who pumped crypto projects
Stocks bounce today after an ugly session yesterday; Nike bought too much inventory; Semis rally despite ugly earnings & guidance from Micron
Stocks continue a hard selloff with volatility continuing in FX, bonds, and equity markets globally; Will currency headwinds sink stocks going into Q3 earnings season? And why meme stocks don't look as compelling to me now
Bank of England intervenes in bond market to stabilize yields; stocks rise despite weakness in Apple
Stocks finally bounce after a deep selloff over the past several weeks. Central Banks try to look tough on inflation while the economy weakens. Will it lead to more things breaking in the financial system? Is it too early to buy stocks on sale? Do short term bonds begin to look attractive?
Stocks were down huge yesterday after the CPI numbers came in slightly above expectations; Yields also ripped higher; Will the Fed hike 100bps?
Stocks gain globally to start the week; Silver & gold gain as the dollar may have topped; CPI inflation data looms big tomorrow
Stocks and crypto rally hard going into the weekend; CPI data looms next week but are rate hikes already priced in?
Stocks try to rally once again; Commodities continue to weaken; European politicians propose solutions to the energy crisis; Blue Apron's weird financing saga continues; Insider trading by another member of Congress?
Stocks continue to weaken after the Labor Day holiday as recession fears linger; DWAC might not have the votes to extend its deadline; BBBY leads meme stocks lower; All eyes on Europe after Nordstream stops gas flows again and the ECB meets to hike rates on Thursday
The market liked the August unemployment numbers; LULU delivers the goods; metals and stocks bounce on Friday as the European energy crisis looks a little less dire
Stocks are weak again on European manufacturing data, a few weak enterprise software reports, and export controls on Nvidia. Could there be a bright spot at Lionsgate this month?
Recapping the aggressive Fed speech, recent down moves in stocks, and the energy crisis in Europe
Retail earnings pleasantly surprise, Zoom disappoints, and energy remains a key focus in global markets
BBBY takes a breather, existing home sales still weakening, and European electricity prices are worrisome
Retailer earnings don't look so bad, natural gas tops $9 / mmbtu, and short squeezes continue in a few stocks
Weakness in the Chinese economy, squeeze trades continue, hedge fund 13F filing deadlines, and a big week on deck for the retail sector
Consumer sentiment is improving on the back of lower gas prices, more earnings coverage, and some big name SPACs are trying to extend their deadlines
The CPI came in at 8.5% year over year which was below expectations of 8.8% and stocks are loving it so far. What will it mean going forward?
Nvidia and Micron signal weakness in semis, unprofitable tech companies are still rallying on earnings, M&A is in full swing with deals from Devon Energy and Applovin, and squeezes may be cooling off ahead of the critical CPI report tomorrow
Recapping the last week of earnings, macro, and M&A which pushed the market higher. Will we see the trend continue this week? So far today we do see more M&A and short squeezes playing out, but a big inflation data release looms large later in the week
A very surprising job report, lots of company earnings, and a detailed discussion of the bulls versus bears debate on stocks
Stocks continue their rally as more earnings reports roll in from companies such as BKNG, PARA, DDOG, RUN, MELI, YETI, CFLT, SHAK, LCID, FSLY, FTNT, VMEO, and others
Covering the earnings news from Paypal, Starbucks, Airbnb, AMD, and others. Maybe things aren't so bad?
Stocks don't like the rising tensions over Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, Uber and Pinterest rise after earnings, low float stocks are squeezing higher, and we have lots more earnings reports on deck
Back in action after a short hiatus! A recap of big tech earnings, the Fed hike, new spending bills, and the overall macro environment
Recapping last week and looking ahead at a very busy week of company earnings and a critical Federal Reserve meeting
Snapchat & Twitter both report disappointing earnings; Flash PMIs another indicator of possible economic weakening; Looking ahead to a massive earnings and Fed decision week
Tesla reports earnings and announces it has sold most of its bitcoin at a loss, the equity rally takes a pause, commodities weaken due to some weak macro data, and I catch up on some company earnings reports
Netflix rises after a better than expected earnings report and the overall stock market is in rally mode
Apple slows down hiring, Ally reports rising auto loan delinquencies, Lockheed misses earnings, but the market shakes it all off this morning
Recapping market action last week, plus Bank of America and Goldman Sachs report quarterly earnings this morning
Bank stocks start the day strong, solar stocks take a hit, Pinterest has a new activist investor, defending JP Morgan, and a brief discussion of Disney
Markets are risk off today after hot PPI numbers and an earnings miss from JP Morgan; TSM earnings still look solid despite softening in consumer PC demand; Many banking, energy, mining, and tech stocks are now hitting yearly lows
June CPI comes in hot, Twitter sues Elon, Gurley buys some Stitch Fix, and we get more earnings datapoints
Recession fears linger, solid earnings from Pepsico, and awaiting critical inflation numbers
Kicking off a big week of earnings, inflation data, M&A news, and volatile market action
A sincere thank you to those who tuned in for the first week of the podcast. We end the week with strong unemployment data and are looking forward to next week's inflation numbers and kickoff of earnings season with the big banks
Checking in on mid-week stock market action, watching the ISM Services PMI release, and looking for pockets of value within beaten up sectors such as tech and cannabis
The inaugural episode of Stocks & Coffee with the StockGeek! Today we talk about how the market is starting to price in a growing probability of recession, with stocks and energy taking a hit in early trading