Sea of Change: Recent Episodes
Angela Köckritz and Qin Liwen
The Indo-Pacific region will be of tremendous importance for the coming decades.
With the rise of China, the Indo-Pacific region has become the central stage for the competition of the two superpowers USA and China. Many things are happening simultaneously in this incredibly dynamic region. India is gaining influence, Indonesia is rising. And each player in this very complex region is pursuing its own unique strategy.
Home to four of the world s most populous nations the region is a driver of global economic growth and technological innovation, a hub of world trade and logistics. What happens here is crucial for world´s peace and prosperity.
In this biweekly Podcast, we - a Chinese-German journalist team based in Berlin - want to put the jigsaws together: shed light on the hidden stories happening outside the media spotlight while providing macro-level analysis. We want to present key players, and explore the economic, political, social and business trends that matter to the world.
Official Website: www.seaofchange.net
In this episode we take a deep dive into the contradictions of the Chinese economy - and what made it so successful in the first place. Is the Chinese miracle - or rather as our distinguished guest Xu Chenggang likes to call it - the Chinese riddle going to continue or has its meteoric rise already peaked? We examine Xi Jingping´s economic policy, try to distinguish real from fake growth figures and seek to find out why the island of Hainan seeks to attract investors by pledging to "arrest less entrepreneurs".
Not only does Xu Chenggang share his vast knowledge with us - his creative analysis and sense of humor make this episode a real treat.
Xu Chenggang is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economic and Institutions, and a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and a Visiting Professor, Department of Finance, Imperial College London
Sound Editor: José Martins
For many years, the West had great hopes on China. That market economy would eventually lead to democracy or at least a liberalization. But even as these hopes did not materialize, a West in nearly constant crisis was grateful for a Chinese government that other than the Russian one did not exploit its weaknesses, but rather stabilized the system. In the recent past however disillusionment set it. The US and Europe started to realize that not only was Beijing not willing to play by the rules once set by the West– but that it pursues ambitions that threaten the very existence of the system.
In this Episode we talk to British analyst Andrew Small about this process of waking up, about how hopes for a certain kind of globalization were shattered. About Beijing s efforts for alliance building – and Emmanuel Macron.
Andrew Small is a senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund s Indo-Pacific Program which he established in 2006. He recently published The Rupture: China and the Global Race for the Future/No Limits: the Inside Story of China s War with the West, which was named one of the 2022 Financial Times Books of the Year.
Sound Editor for this episode is Aaditya Surve and Parichay Talreja.
In the past years, we hear more and more about the phrase "a New Cold War". Some would say that we are already in it. What are the perspectives of Chinese government and researchers on this? In this episode we discuss with Chinese expert Da Wei about some very contentious issues. Is the worsening of relations between China and the West inevitable? Is the US a declining power? What has Beijing learned from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, especially with regard to its relation with Taiwan?
Da Wei is the director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua, and professor of department of International Relations, school of Social Science, Tsinghua University. His expertise covers China-US relations and US security & foreign policy. He was the assistant president of University of International Relations (2017-2020), director of the Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (2013-2017), an institute under Ministry of State Security. He has written hundreds of policy papers to Chinese government, and published dozens of academic papers on journals in China, the US and other countries.
He was a visiting senior fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States from 2006 to 2007, and a visiting senior associate at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University from 2008 to 2009.
War takes many forms. China has been launching a highly sophisticated and intensive disinformation war on social media, while trying to infiltrate Taiwanese society, government and military. To fight these unconventional wars in an open society like Taiwan is very difficult, but not completely impossible. In the last episode of Sea of Change Podcast’s Taiwan Trilogy, we talked with Professor Puma Shen on his study on these issues. He shared with us his fascinating discoveries and explained to us why the mafia in Taiwan is less of a threat to the island’s security than the social media influencers paid by Beijing.
Puma Shen is an associate professor at National Taipei University，chairperson of Doublethink Lab and founder of Kuma Academy. He is also vice president of the Taiwan Association for Human Rights (TAHR), focusing heavily on disinformation and local trafficking of privacy violations. He was a lawyer, and an expert on white-collar crime, including state crime, disinformation campaigns, and financial crime.
One year of Russia-Ukraine War has not only woken up Europe to face the threat of Russia, but also Taiwan to the threat of China. There are few illusions left among the Taiwanese that a war with China could be avoided. But it is still a great challenge for the political parties to reach an agreement on how to prepare for the war. What could be the most likely war strategy taken by China? How can Taiwan deal with it? Is China's grey zone warfare dividing Taiwanese society? Can Taiwan rely on the US and other allies?
In the second part of our Taiwan Trilogy, Sea of Change podcast invited Professor Lai I-Chung to share his views and analysis on these crucial topics. Professor Lai is the President of Prospect Foundation of Taiwan. He was also a seasoned diplomat working for the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the ruling party of Taiwan. He represented DPP in the United States and worked as the Chief of Staff for Taiwan Representative to Japan (TECRO). Both countries are the major allies of Taiwan. He was also the Director General for Department of China Affairs as well as for Department of International Affairs for DPP.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine a lot of international attention has been shifting to Taiwan – will China eventually attack the island? The Communist Party of China has been vowing to take over Taiwan since 1949. For a long time this promise sounded rather hollow, as the People’s Liberation Army did not have the capacity for such a daunting move, but with the massive upgrading of the Chinese military such a move could be more and more likely.
As the China Taiwan conflict is so crucial to the Indo-Pacific arena and to world peace at large we decided to dedicate a three part series to it. We will talk with Taiwanese experts about how an attack on Taiwan could look like. What Taiwan could do to defend itself and how it differs on this question with US military experts. We will discuss how China uses psychological and information warfare to influence public opinion and the political decision making process in Taiwan. And what Taiwanese Civil Society and Government do in order to make their democracy more resilient.
In our first part we talk to the journalist and military expert Paul Huang, who is currently Research Fellow at Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation.
This is an episode we have been looking for for quite some while. The Overseas Chinese are one of the largest migrant groups in the world – and they are very much thought after by the Chinese Communist Party. Again and again it stresses the notion of an umbilical chord that connects them to their „motherland“ - as it wants to awaken their patriotism. But many Overseas Chinese of the second or third generation are well integrated into their hosting countries and feel not so connected to China anymore. And with the stringent lockdown policies of the Zero Covid Policy many young Chinese just wanted to run away. Runxue or the study of leaving China became a trending topic. With the escalating power struggle between the US and China many Overseas Chinese are caught in between two worlds. They face two very different social media spheres with their opposing messages. And they have to deal with the fact that even in another country they still might be confronted with Chinese agents and spies.
We talk with Shi Ming, a renowned writer and journalist residing in Germany, and Yifei, a young tech investor in Singapore, about the White Paper Revolution, the traumatic experience of Zero Covid, business networks, geopolitics in tech, and why Chinese diplomats are suddenly becoming friendlier to Overseas Chinese they shunned before.
This episode are edited by Thomas and Liwen.
Most of the major economies in the world are struggling with recession, but not Indonesia. This most populous country in Southeast Asia even managed to maintain strong export and import during the pandemic, and witnessed a strong rebound after the Covid 2019 crisis. Its inflation rate is relatively low and has one of the best performing Asian currencies. It has a growing young population, a prospering electronic vehicle industry and tech innovation sector. It is attracting foreign investment from all over the world. The world’s leading consultancy firm PwC even predicted that in 2050 Indonesia will be the 4th biggest economy in the world.
But the country still has many problems to solve: corruptions, uneven development, domestic terrorism, to name just a few. Its capital city, Jakarta, is sinking into the ground due to climate change and over population; and while China is a very important investor and trade partner of Indonesia, China's expanding maritime power in the disputed islands/islets in the South China Sea can also become a ticking bomb in the Indonesia-China relations.
Would Indonesia fulfill its potential? What are the obstacles it has to overcome? We invited Dr. Gracia Paramitha to discuss these topics on our podcast. Gracia is a lecturer at the London School of Public Relations Institute of Communication and Business, Jakarta. She is also a research consultant on climate economy at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia. Her research focuses on the G20, climate governance, sustainable development goals (SDGs), youth, climate change politics, and environmental policy. She has supported the G20 Indonesia 2022 presidency through collaboration among engagement groups.
More about Dr. Gracia Paramitha's work: https://th.boell.org/en/person/gracia-paramitha
This episode was edited by Aaditya Surve and Liwen Qin
On 9 December 2022, another military conflict happened at the disputed border region between India and China, injuring at least two dozen soldiers on both sides. This incident has added to a series of Sino-Indian border conflicts since May 2020. New resentment is brewing between the world's two most populous countries and nuclear powers, fueling further nationalistic sentiments and might lead to more confrontations in turn. Although there should be little concern for an imminent war between the two nations, the conflicts have certainly created uncertainties for business leaders and policy makers.
Today, the two countries account for 35 percent of the global population and 21 percent of the global GDP. India is worried by the stronger and more powerful presence of China not only at its borders, but also in the region. It keeps a suspicious eye on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI has expanded China’s influence in India’s maritime and continental neighborhood. Under the nationalistic Prime Minister Narenda Modi, India has taken a set of strategic and tactical adjustments to deal with the challenges from a more powerful China. It is seeking to reinvent itself. As the soon-to-be most populous country and the 5th biggest GDP in the world, it is assuming more responsibilities and attracting more expectations globally. Where is the Sino-Indian relationship heading for? Is India ready to be a stronger leader in the region? What would this change bring to the rest of the world? And why is it taking an ambiguous stance towards Russia?
Our guest today is Dr. Jabin Jacob, Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies of Shiv Nadar University in New Delhi. Jacob holds a PhD in Chinese Studies from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University and has spent time as a researcher in Taiwan, France and Singapore. His interests include Chinese domestic politics, China-South Asia relations, Sino-Indian border areas, Indian and Chinese worldviews, and center-province relations in China.
For more information about Dr. Jacob and his work, you can visit his website: https://indiandchina.com/
This episode is edited by Yu Ge.
In Oct. 2022, The Biden administration published a CHIPS and Science Act with a sweeping set of export controls to cut China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world with US tools. This marked a significant escalation of the Chip War launched by the US against a rising China. Washington knows that advanced semiconductor technology is crucial to maintaining its military superiority.
Despite the fact that our modern lives depend on semiconductors every day, few of us understand this industry. Even those who work in the industry don't necessarily have an overall picture in their mind. The semiconductor industry is an extremely complicated industry that relies on a high level of cooperation between nations around the world. However, China, driven by an ambition to be the next world leader and a sense of insecurity in its competition with the US, is striving for self-sufficiency in semiconductors. Will China achieve its goal? Who are the main players in the semiconductor industry? Why is the Chip War defining the future of the world?
In this episode, we discussed these topics with Chris Miller, Associate Professor of International History at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. His elegant, riveting and insightful book "Chip War. The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology" portrayed this immensely complicated, vast industry, the Chip War and its economic and geopolitical implications distinctively.
This episode is edited by Yu Ge.
From rather clumsy beginnings the Chinese government has become very skilful in the way it exerts influence on the policy making process of the countries it deals with. It uses not only a wide variety of means but also recruits civilian actors like students, business associations and so on. In this episode we will be looking at a very sophisticated strategy that Beijing uses to influence other countries: the United Front.
The United Front developed by the Chinese Communist Party has had a century’s history. It aims at engaging individuals and make them work for Beijing´s benefit unknowingly. America’s leaders, for a long time, stressed that engagement would lead to a more democratic China. After decades of engagement, American business people and politicians have become too dependent on China to challenge it. And the presence of Chinese government’s influence and will can be felt in many corners of the society and cultural and academic sphere.
In this episode, we talked with Isaac Stone Fish, American author and China expert on this topic. We looked at the lesser known but highly effective strategies China uses to sway other countries, how China understands the vulnerabilities that are an integral part of the openness of democratic systems, and how the latter could protect itself from foreign influence.
This episode is edited by Aaditya Surve.
China's port and shipping industry is expanding rapidly. Beijing now has investments in more than 100 harbors in 63 countries. And it wants to buy even more, extending its global dominance in shipping.
But not every acquisition is easy. In the autumn of 2022, German chancellor Olaf Scholz decided to sell 24,9% of the shares of container terminal Tollerort, one of the four container terminals in Hamburg port to Cosco, a Chinese state-owned company. His decision has caused a heated public debate within Germany. Six German ministries, Germany’s intelligence services and the European Commission all warned against this deal. Allowing this critical infrastructure to fall into China’s hand, the opposition camp argues, is like repeating the mistake of depending on Russia on natural resources.
In this episode we talk with Dr Tim Rühlig from the DGAP, the German Society for External Policy, about the economic incentives of Chinese port investments - as well as its risks and dangers. We discuss China's global maritime strategy and how these ports could be used in times of a military conflict. We reflect on the question of economic dependency - why we know so little about it and how we could become more resilient.
This episode is edited by Yu Ge.
Two Chinese nationals show up in the Marshall Islands to implement a grandiose plan: A special economic zone on an atoll of the poor Pacific island nation. But soon the dream of the free trade zone turns into a political scandal – in its course the two almost succeed in overthrowing the elected president.
Now they are on trial, but the question remains: Who are Cary Yan and Gina Zhou? Business people? Fraudsters who wanted to create a money laundering paradise? Or agents of the Chinese government who were to establish a state within a state on the territory of a close US ally?
For the Pacific island states have recently become the centre of a bitter power struggle between China and the USA.
An episode about the geo-strategic importance of a long-neglected region, the island theory, gray-zone warfare, and a Chinese book on asymmetric warfare that rose to worldwide fame.