Market Trends with Tracy: Recent Episodes
Saval Foodservice
Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline food service distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland and has been a family owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessan products & cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed. In food service, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that effects the food you serve. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.com | Follow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice
BEEF: I’m going to start with the weekly beef harvest. Last week’s total was 512K head; the prior week was 528K head. I don’t recall this small a weekly harvest on a non-holiday week. Packers will continue to try and tighten availability to support pricing. They are having some success as Ribeyes and tenderloins are moving higher heading to Labor Day. Overall, though prices are moving lower, we should see some appreciation as we get closer to Labor Day. Grinds and rounds are moving lower; thin meats are mixed as briskets have new support while flanks and sirloin flap continue to decline. I think we’ve got a week, maybe two, before we see this market move higher again. Stay ahead of your needs; product will be tight, but better values will be available.
POULTRY: Chicken market is back to moving a bit higher. Up with Boneless skinless random breast and wings. Tenders still showing some weakness, moving a few pennies lower. This year’s robust chicken production growth is expected to cool off heading into fall, so this market could turn higher, but I’m not seeing anything yet. On the avian flu report, another week, no new cases, and we will take that win every time.
GRAINS: Grains continue to decline from the surge we saw two weeks ago. Corn closed at $4.51, down from last week’s $4.69; soy at $11.53, down from last week's $11.71, and wheat closed at $6.07, down from last week’s $6.30. We are in the height of the growing season for corn and soy, and we do have some drought in parts of the country to deal with, but that is mostly west of the prime growing areas. Still looks like another big crop year.
PORK: Pork bellies, they moved higher again this week, today’s close $164 up from last week’s $159. I do think we are about at the top of this market, just looking to see when we’ll start moving lower. Right now, I’d buy just what I need. Pork loins are up a nickel, ribs and butts holding steady. Once we get past Labor Day, I do expect some declines.
DAIRY: Thursday’s CME close saw both barrel and block decline 2 while butter recovers from the recent declines up 6. We have plenty of raw material for dairy, so I don’t expect too much from this recent run.
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BEEF Let’s start with some really good news. For the first time since 2018 the US cattle herd increased by 200K head to 94.2 million head, this however is not the start of beef herd building we’ve been looking for. The increases are in dairy cows, the beef herd actually declined 200K head to 28.5 million head. I do see some signs of heifer retention with ranchers reserving additional head for breeding. I’m still taking this as a good sign. Additional good news: Our southern border will open to Mexican livestock with one port opening August 24 in Arizona. This entry will probably only be about 3,000 head per week, but we will take the progress. We’ve gone a week with no new New World screw worm cases, so let's keep the momentum going. Onto the current beef market and we continue to move lower finishing July, and I’d expect the early part of August will continue the decline. There is an exception as ribeyes and tenderloins seem to have done their summer declines; while the rest of the market softens, they have some demand behind them to keep from further declines. Declines from last week continue though they are getting smaller, and I do think we’ll see a bottom to this current market in the next couple weeks. Thin meats, rounds and chucks all moving lower, even grinds, which I almost thought invincible to market declines, are moving lower. I’d still stay ahead of your needs but as this market declines there will be opportunities.
POULTRY Chicken market is down for next week. Boneless skinless randoms, tenders and even wings are all moving lower. This strong production we’ve seen all year seems to finally be catching up the producers lowering prices to keep things moving. I thought we’d see a minor increase but we’re going the other way. Makes chicken a great value this summer. On the avian flu beat – two weeks, no new cases. We’ll take that all day long.
GRAINS Last week had all the grain markets moving higher, even corn. Well, that was last week. This week, except for wheat being affected by international unrest and domestic crop stress, corn and soy are moving back down. This week’s corn closed at $4.69 down from last week $4.84. Soy closed $11.71 down from $12.26 last week. Soy oil should move lower over the next couple weeks.
PORK Pork bellies are up again this week, closing today at $159 over last week’s close of $156. While I do think we have a couple more weeks to go, I think we’ve got a week or two more before declining again heading into fall. Right now, it's all moving higher. Bellies are about the only thing pushing higher and pork, butts, ribs and loins, steady to down slightly.
DAIRY The recent run up on the CME for the block and the barrel seems to have run out of steam. Through Thursday's close block is down 8, barrel is down 5 and butter continues lower down 11. Plenty of raw material available and we’re seeing a slowdown heading into August.
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BEEF The beef market is continuing lower this week though I do see some slowing in the declines. Production continues restrained with 525K harvested last week, down from 529k the week prior. We may see even lower production numbers this week and moving into August to try and bolster some of price drops. Middle meats continue to lead the way lower, mainly the strip loin; tenders and ribeyes both lower but not by much. Grinds moved lower a second week, that I am surprised to see. Chucks and rounds are mostly trading sideways with some lower prices but mostly just treading water. Thin meats have more to go but finally are moving lower which was really needed. Overall, the market is soft even with tight inventories. Buy to stay ahead of your needs but no need to stretch too far out.
POULTRY I’ve been talking all year how chicken production is up, and they don’t seem to be holding back, expecting to replace beef on the consumer's table. While demand for wings is pushing pricing up again next week, boneless skinless randoms and tenders are holding steady again for next week. While I do think the next move should be higher, I don’t think it will be more than a few cents up right now. On the avian flu beat, first time in weeks, no new cases reported.
GRAINS International unrest and spikes in oil prices come right into our food sector pushing all our grains higher, even corn. Corn closed at $4.84/bushel up from last week $4.67, soybeans up closing at $12.26 over last week’s $11.95 and wheat closed at $6.83 up from $6.69. We have the inventory to meet demand; pricing will be pushing higher every day.
PORK Pork bellies closed today at $156 up from last week $147. I don’t think this is done at all. Expect to peak sometime in August. Butts, loins, and ribs all moving slightly lower making pork a very attractive protein buy.
DAIRY At the close of today’s CME, block is up 5, barrel is up 3 and butter heads lower another week, down 5. Not sure how long this run up will continue but I don’t expect too much longer.
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BEEF The beef market continues its summer pull back. Overall market tone is moving lower. I expect we will see this through the end of the month; come August we’ll be starting to look at fall demand. Unbelievable, already talking about fall. Last week’s harvest was 529K head, up from the holiday week of 448K. Middle meats are leading prices lower, especially ribeyes and strips, tenderloins are down but not near the movement lower on ribeyes and strips. Grinds are holding steady for a week, but still this is a product with strong demand and pricing will be moving higher. End cuts, rounds and chucks are moving nominally lower; demand isn’t strong this time of year, but restricted production keeps pricing propped up a bit. I’d stay ahead of my needs, but overall pricing is moving lower.
POULTRY The overall feel of the chicken market is demand is stronger than supply. Wings are getting a strong push up next week. Randoms and tenders holding steady, but I do expect their next move will be higher. On the avian flu front, another 275K egg layers removed from the food supply.
GRAINS Soy oil is holding onto all the gains from last week when the market started moving higher. Corn closed up at $4.67 over last week’s $4.48. Wheat moving higher as well. Most of this is reaction to international disruptions, still not ready to say everything is breaking higher but I’m watching.
PORK The pork belly run higher is on, today’s close $147 up from last week’s $132. I expect this late start to the summer belly increase will run well into August. Butts, ribs, and loins are all staying about where they are, keeping pork a good protein value.
DAIRY The CME continued last week's move higher on cheese. Through Thursday’s close block is up 8, barrel is up 4, and butter is down 2. Summer is not usually the time of year we see cheese markets surge higher; we’ll see if this continues.
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BEEF As expected, beef pricing for middle meats is moving lower. Strips, ribeyes and tenderloins all coming off a bit from pre-holiday highs. I expect we will see this continue right to the end of the month. Grinds on the other hand are keeping prices high and will be moving higher. Ground beef is still the value in the beef complex even with advancing prices. Chucks and rounds will be coming off a bit, but don’t expect too much from these primals as far as discounting. Beef production during the holiday shortened week was 458K head down from the prior week’s 537K head and down compared to last year’s holiday when the harvest was 474, keeping beef tight and expensive. Thin meats are a mixed bag; declines in briskets and sirloin flap while flank still has support pushing higher. With inventories tight, I’d recommend staying ahead of your needs, but you will see better pricing over the next few weeks.
POULTRY We’ll start talking about poultry with avian flu. Our good run has come to an end. Only one case reported, but it is 1.2 million egg layers in Utah removed from the food supply. Talking about current chicken market, wings are on fire moving up strongly for next week. Randoms and tenders are holding steady at least for next week. Production continues strong but demand is pushing this market. I don’t expect chicken to take a big run up we should see a pretty steady market through the summer.
GRAINS China is back to purchasing soybeans after the protracted tariff disruption, booking 132K metric tons with commitment to purchase 25M metric tons through 2028. Shooting started again with Iran; both those events turned a promising decline in soy oil right around with prices inching higher every day. Corn closed up at $4.48/bushel over last week’s $4.31 close. Wheat is up across the board too. Though we have so much corn we’ll not see much effect from this latest move higher, wheat could push flour pricing up. Right now, the action is in soy.
PORK Pork bellies finally showing some direction closing at $132 up from last week's $119. We’ll keep watching to see if this is an event or a trend, I’m betting trend, but I’ve been fooled a couple times this year, so let's see it play out. If this is the expected belly summer climb, now it when to buy bacon. Butts and ribs holding steady and a good value, loins actually moving a few cents lower makes a great value in protein.
DAIRY The CME closed today with the block up 8, the barrel up 4 and butter moving down 2. This is the most active we’ve seen this trade in quite a while.
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BEEF Beef production last week was 537K head, up from 526K the week prior. We are still in that zone of keeping supplies tight to keep pricing up. The animals that are processed have been in the feed lots longer, growing larger; current cattle are running almost 50 pounds heavier than this week last year. This trend will continue. We are at the big summer holiday. I do expect beef prices to settle once we get past Independence Day and a short production week. I do expect grinds to lead the beef complex this summer; demand will be strong and pricing will be supported by that demand. Another week and let's see if the middle meats will behave like they should in summer and move a bit lower. Thin meats, briskets, sirloin flap, skirts will be the wild card as it takes a lot of animals to fill one case; tight supplies just keep pressure on the pricing, but we could see some reset on thin meats if demand does not hold. All in all, stay ahead of your needs, but I wouldn’t go too far out as I do think we’ll see more favorable prices in the next few weeks.
POULTRY Chicken production continues to outpace last year, but I do think we’ll see a bit of a slowdown in production, not a pullback, but we’ve been running about 2% ahead of last year and I’m seeing some pullback to about 1% over last year. Enough to get some push under the market to keep prices supported. Wings are seeing good support and moving higher next week. Boneless skinless randoms up again next week, while tenders are lower again. A few weeks ago, tenders were well over the cost of random breasts; next week that flips as tenders decline and random breasts increase. Still, plenty of chicken and favorable pricing.
GRAINS Corn continues in its narrow trading ban closing at $4.31 up from last week $4.19. We are finally seeing breaks in soy oil pricing; lower prices should be arriving in the next couple weeks to break this recent run up. Wheat is a mixed bag but mostly lower.
PORK The great summer of the pork belly continues, closing today at $119. Up $3 from last week but still great pricing for this time of year. Butts, ribs and loins are all down a bit again as pork is ready to replace beef demand, but consumers have made the choice for chicken. Still pork is there and an excellent protein value.
DAIRY Barrel and block both took the holiday off both moving less than ½ cent for the week, while butter took to moving higher, up 13 for the week. Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3.
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BEEF We hit Independence Day next weekend and the start of the “dog days of summer." Once we get clear of the holiday I do expect we will see a market reset, especially on middle meats. I’m not looking for a crash, but I do expect we will see a steady decline over the month of July possibly right into August. There is some data to suggest ground beef is hitting a bit of a ceiling for customer acceptance. I do think we will push past that resistance, but it will be slowly inching higher; if consumer push back is strong enough, we could see grinds settle out where they are. We’ll keep watching but in my opinion we will see moderate increases continue into August. With production last week only 526K head just up from 524K the week prior, inventories will continue to be tight. Stay ahead of your needs. Looking at New World Screw worm, eight new cases, one sheep, one goat, and six head of cattle. Expect the southern border to remain closed to live animal imports through the rest of this year, and most likely well into 2027.
POULTRY Chicken production continues strong, they are not letting up. Demand for boneless skinless random breasts and party wings are moving prices higher next week. Tenders which were out of line with randoms just a few weeks ago have declined to be comparable in costs. Good to keep pushing out that chicken. On the Avian Flu beat, one new case affecting 3K birds.
GRAINS Overall grains are moving lower especially soy oil. Finally breaking lower from the recent highs. I don’t think we will return to the low markets of early this year, but pricing is coming off. Wheat closed at $4.19 down from last week’s $4.30. Wheat closed at $5.84 down from last week’s $6.11. I do expect to see lower grain costs continue as long as we don’t have a major disruption.
PORK Pricing on pork bellies declined again this week, closing today at $116 down from last week’s $118. This is not an expecting market level for early summer. I’ll keep buying bacon at this level, and you should too. Butts are coming off again next week and loins moved up a few pennies but still offer a great value in protein.
DAIRY And a split decision on dairy markets this week, through Thursday’s close, barrel is up 3, while block is down 4 and butter continues lower down 6 for the week. Dairy markets are at good levels for buying now. We’ll keep watching.
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BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d expect that list to continue to grow. This is a growing issue that will affect our beef industry for the foreseeable future.
Beef production was 533K head last week, up from the holiday shortened prior week of 448K. This keeps inventories tight and product prices pushing higher. Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips are finding support to continue moving higher. Chucks and rounds are holding steady for now though they are not big demand items in the summer. Ground beef is the big demand item and it's moving higher every day. Briskets and sirloin flap are moving lower, but I don’t think we’ll see this for long. It’s a market where I’d make sure I stay ahead of my needs and keep inventory on hand. This market is moving higher.
POULTRY The declining chicken market is done. Pricing will be moving higher next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings. Compared to other proteins, still a great value but the declines of the last month are done. Chicken production continues strong up about 2% over last year. There is plenty of chicken in production. On the avian flu report, only three new cases affecting 20K birds. The summer is looking good for avian flu.
GRAINS Corn continues to be a great value closing at $4.25/bushel today, that’s down from $4.39 last week. Soy has pulled back a bit from the highs we saw last week, but I would not be surprised if they go on another run. High fuel prices put soy in play with biofuels, that is not over. Wheat is moving lower; I do think we’ll see lower flour costs soon.
PORK Pork bellies holding steady for the week, closing today at $120, about the same as last week. This will be moving higher soon, but it is a great price right now. Butts were on a tear higher, but they seem to have leveled off, we may see some better pricing shortly. Ribs are about as high as expected to see them this year. Loins continue to be the value in pork.
DAIRY CME Limited moves on the CME this week, thru Thursday’s close, butter is down 2, block is up 1, and barrel is up 2. Let's look for a quiet market at least the next couple weeks.
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BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the foreseeable future, keeping pressure on the already small domestic beef herd. The New World Screw worm is a flesh-eating parasite that has been eradicated from the US since the 1970s, but it's back! Control measures include releasing sterile male flies to reduce population growth. This is certainly worth keeping informed about. Now, with that bit of cheery news, let's look at current beef markets. Last week was a holiday week so harvest was only 448K head. Demand remains good, not great. I’m expecting to see market moves higher as we head to Independence Day. Grinds continue to increase every day. Middle meats were struggling to move higher the last couple weeks, but they are back on track with steady moves higher, again I think right into Independence Day. Thin meats, brisket, flanks, sirloin flap, are mostly steady to lower. This continues to be a market with tight supply, make sure to stay ahead of your needs.
POULTRY The decline in boneless skinless breast meat continues next week. The heavy production we’ve seen so far this year is finally catching up a bit on the suppliers. They are discounting breast meat to keep it moving. Tenders are holding steady another week while wings finally bottomed out last week and are moving up, just a bit, but they are moving up again. The avian flu reports over the last week, 7 new cases affecting 107K birds, mostly ducks.
GRAINS Soy was up like a rocket all week, until today. There will be increases in soy oil in the short term, hopefully we can see this turn back down. Wheat is giving back all its recent gains and we should see some lower prices on wheat. Corn closed at $4.39 today down from last week’s $4.62. New crop estimates will not be pushing this market higher anytime soon.
PORK Pork bellies closed today at $120 up from last week’s $112. This is still great pricing for this time of year. I do expect bellies will be moving higher into the summer. One analyst estimated we could see $180 bellies which should be about the top end of this run. Butts continue to be in demand and pushing prices up. Ribs getting the same push higher. Loins are holding steady, don’t see anything to push them higher right now.
DAIRY CME Thru Thursday’s close Butter is up 7, taking back all those recent declines. Both barrel and block are down 1. Production is good, I don’t see much to push cheese higher right now.
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BEEF I’ve been saying for weeks to stay ahead of your needs, and I’m going to reiterate, stay ahead of your needs, as demand does seem to be ticking up a bit. Weekly harvest is not moving up to help meet that demand. Last week’s harvest was 528K head, down from the prior week’s 535K head. While middle meats are struggling to move higher, ground beef is on the march higher every day. Retail ground beef is now averaging over $7/# for the first time…ever. I don’t see this backing off any time soon. Increases in chucks and rounds are very modest but they are moving higher again. Thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, are showing some weakness, we could see a correction on this over the next couple of weeks, but it will be pretty minor. Staying with the theme, keep ahead of your needs.
POULTRY Boneless Skinless breasts decline again for next week. Getting to be a pretty big spread between breast meat and tenderloins, tenderloins holding pretty steady. Wings holding steady next week too. Production continues over last year running almost 3% up from over last year. Breast meat is turning into a great value as the price declines. On the Avian flu beat, a really good week, two new cases totaling 11,600 ducks.
GRAINS Corn declined this week, closing today at $4.62 down from last week’s $4.75 close. Wheat was showing signs of a bit of a run, but that is about done, we could see wheat decline over the next couple weeks. Soy was actually showing some weakness, until Tuesday this week, soy is now on the move higher. This could be short lived, but right now, soy oil is moving up.
PORK Pork bellies bottomed out last week at $104. Today’s close $112. Still a great value for this time of year, I’m buying bacon. Summer is typically a high demand time for butts and ribs, and both are moving up steadily. Loins continue to be a great protein value.
DAIRY CME Last week the CME looked like it was going to move overall lower. This week thru Thursdays close, butter is up 3 while block and barrel both declined another 5 cents. We’ll keep watching but I don’t see much to push higher in the short term.
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BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K head harvested last week, 527K the week prior. I really don’t see that improving anytime soon. We are seeing Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins and strips moving up again after a few weeks' breather. Grinds still heading higher. Chucks and rounds holding pretty steady, but they could be moving higher if demand for ground beef gets those cuts added to the grinder. We should see some relief on thin meats, briskets and sirloin flap in particular are moving lower and that should continue at least a few weeks. It's an interesting market, I’d still stay ahead of my needs, but there could be some deals to be had.
POULTRY Chicken production continues to outpace last year by almost 3%. Demand is meeting supply but there is plenty of product available. Randoms and wings are actually down for next week, tenders holding steady. I do think this market will turn higher as we get into the heat of summer, but I don’t expect any big spikes like we’ve seen in years past. Looks like chicken is positioned to be on the grill this summer. On the avian flu front, another six new cases affecting 57K birds. No fun losing any birds but this is looking pretty good as the weather heats up.
GRAINS Took a week to figure out we don’t have a big grain rally after all. Demand for soy continues strong but doubts about deals with China are pushing all the grain markets lower. Corn almost hit $5 last week, today back to $4.75/bushel. Soy has leveled off, I would not be surprised to see some decline, not much, but some over the next couple weeks. Wheat is shaping up to have a less than great domestic crop, flour is up a bit and of the three grains we watch, wheat has me watching.
PORK I absolutely did not have bellies for $104 at Memorial Day in my market expectations. I thought last week at $121 was something. I don’t know how long this low market will last but it is not something we would usually see this time of year. It's time to buy bacon! Contrary to that, butts and ribs continue to show strength and up a few cents next week. Loins continue to be steady and a great protein value.
DAIRY CME I didn’t see the belly market crash, and I don’t know if this week is a trend or an event, we’ll see what next week brings. Through Thursday’s CME close butter is down 6, block is down 6, and barrel also down 6. Let's see where this goes next.
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BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current mood of tight supplies and increasing prices. The move higher has begun with this week’s trading. Middle meats are already pretty inflated, but they will push up over the next few weeks. Grinds will be leading the way with strong demand both in retail and foodservice. Rounds and chucks have leveled off for now but should follow the grind pricing higher. Middle meats that pushed up so hard in April into May are holding onto all those recent gains, but I don’t see them moving much higher in the near term. Beef will continue to move higher over the next few weeks.
POULTRY Chicken on the other hand is in great position, increasing production about 3% over last year, increasing egg sets which tells me we expect to continue to grow market share and I do think keeping prices affordable will be a key to summer chicken success. Next week, we see pennies up, pennies down, this market is well supplied and feels in a good position to move into summer. On the Avian flu front, 6 new cases affecting 79k birds, mostly ducks. Any loss is too many, but this is much better data over the last couple weeks as weather gets warmer as this virus does not like hot weather.
GRAINS While soy has been the story the last month moving up every day, things have leveled off and we could see some giveback over the next couple weeks. Corn is on the move, something not thought in months. Corn closed today at $4.90, the highest close since May 2025. Wheat is now the leader on the move higher, mostly from mediocre crop reports domestically and international demand. We are seeing the highest wheat costs since June of 2024. Expect price increases on flour and bakery goods.
PORK Pork bellies moving lower again, closing at $121 down from last weeks $125. Good time to buying bacon. We typically see a surge in belly prices as the weather warms, but not this year. I’m watching but I don’t see anything to move this market higher just yet. Butts on the other hand are moving higher, about $.10/# for next week, that’s a good move for pork butts, ribs also showing summer increases while loins continue to be the value in protein.
DAIRY CME is a split decision this week, thru Thursday’s close butter is up 2 after a couple weeks decline, block down 2 and barrel down 1. Looks like raw material is in good supply so I’m thinking we will continue on this minor weekly change, at least a bit.
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Thanks for joining me today, let's look at a few markets heading into Mother’s Day weekend. Let's start as usual with beef.
We’ve had a couple weeks of relatively stable pricing, and I think we’ve got another week, maybe two before summer fun and demand start pushing prices up. Beef harvest last week was 534K head, up a few from the 529K the week prior. That keeps inventories very tight. Middle meats, those Ribeyes, strip loins, and tenderloins are finding modest support moving minimally higher. Rounds and chucks are holding fairly steady. I think as we see hamburger move higher, makes sense to move chucks and rounds into the grinder to support ground beef demand. Thin meats were on a rocket heading into May. They aren’t giving back any of those recent gains, but they are holding fairly steady for now. I do think this is a buying opportunity as I do think this market will turn higher over the next few weeks.
Chicken production continues pace ahead of last year by about 2%. Demand is holding up though we do see a small decline in boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings are holding steady for the week. I do think the next move for chicken prices will push higher but as with beef, I think we’ll take a breather for a week or so. On Avian Flu, a very good week, one new case reported affecting 110 birds. We had a tough start to spring but hopefully this is a sign of a calmer end of spring into summer.
Soy continues to demand the attention in grain pushing higher every day. When gas is high as we are currently seeing, soy demand for biofuels gets serious, corn continues to be steady closing at $4.72 up from last week $4.71, so not much going on in corn. Wheat is getting international interest and pushing up a bit.
Pork bellies are down again this week, todays close $125, down from last week $135. I do think we will see a summer run on bellies but looks like we have some buying opportunities before that happens. The rest of the pork complex is seeing increases, butts and ribs moving up for the week, while loins continue to be a great value.
The CME close on Thursday shows a well-balanced market, butter is down 5, barrel has not change and block is down 1. We can always use a bit of good news on the CME.
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Try to say "Avian Flu Front" five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl.
The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week. Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower. Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week. Rounds and Chucks coming off as well. The one area the reduced harvest numbers are really pushing on is thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, and skirt steak all steadily moving higher each week. I expect we will see this continue higher right into Cinco de Mayo. Mother’s Day is right after, so we do have some events coming to move some beef. I’d still stay ahead of my needs, cattle harvest was only 512K last week, down from 533K the week before so while prices may be declining, inventories continue to be tight.
Chicken demand remains strong and production is continuing to outpace last year running about 2% up for the year. Recently boneless skinless randoms and tenders have been on a weekly move higher. It looks like randoms will take a little breather and actually decline a few pennies, tenders and wings will continue higher for next week. Overall I still see this market continuing higher at least the next few weeks. On the Avian flu front, another relatively good week, 3 new cases affecting 251K birds. Heat is not this virus’s friend, so hopefully as the weather warms the virus will be less active.
War can’t move the corn market, this week’s close $4.55/bushel, last week’s close $4.53. New crop is coming and we still have plenty of last year’s crop and I believe still some 2024 crop; there is lots of corn available. Soy: now soy moved higher a few weeks ago, not letting go those recent gains and demand for biofuel is keeping soybeans moving. Wheat is seeing effects of internation unrest, market is up $.13bushel from last week. Nothing to panic but I think we will see modest increases in flour pricing.
I started seeing the pork belly market move lower this week, then it just dropped, today’s close $136 down from last week’s $149. This market reset should move bacon prices down. The rest of the pork complex is moving by pennies, butts, loins, ribs, all a good value with good availability.
A split market this week in dairy, thru Thursday’s close the CME for butter is up 2, while the barrel is down 1 and block down 3. Production numbers say this should be a stable market at least for the next few weeks.
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We are well into spring now and some things are shaking in the beef market. First good news, though the strike is not settled, the JBS workers are returning to work while negotiations continue. Good news, beef harvest increased to 533K still running about 10% behind last year, supplies remain very tight. Good news, market prices seem to be pushing back a bit, maybe this is moving higher too quickly? I still think this bull market will continue to move higher into spring, but I do think we’ve got a little breather for a week or so. Rounds and chucks are both down a bit this week, more good news. Middle meats are steady to slightly higher this week, but thin meats, those flanks, skirt, sirloin flat meat, all still expensive and moving higher. Typically, thin meats will peak around Cinco de Mayo, which is not that far way.
POULTRY: Chicken production continues to outpace last year, up 2% so far this year. Hatch rate is improving 79.3% - chicken is in full production. Demand is right there with it, chicken, still a great value in protein, but pricing is moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms breasts, tenders, party wings, all moving higher. I think we’ll see this market move higher the next few weeks.
On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 3 new cases affecting 111K birds. As spring migration tapers off let's hope the virus does too.
GRAINS : Corn barely moved from $4.54 to $4.53 this week. Wheat about the same, soy is holding onto all their recent gains. With the cost of fuel moving higher, demand for biofuels will increase, soy and canola continue to inch up on daily markets.
PORK: Last week bellies closed at $149, same this week, steady at $149. I’m thinking we will continue in this $150 market for a few more weeks, next move should be higher, but I’m going to push that out a few weeks. The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and priced well. Butts inch up a penny, loins and ribs steady.
DAIRY Dairy markets holding pretty steady for the week, Thru Thursday’s CME close block is down 2, barrel is steady, no change, and butter down 4. Spring production is good and availability is very good.
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Beef production continues to keep inventories tight and prices pushing higher. Beef harvest last week was 520K head, up a bit from the 503K the week prior but still not enough to fill the demand. Middle meats, those strips loins, tenderloins and ribeyes continue to push higher every week. Thin meats, think flank, skirt, sirloin flap, all are in tight supply and pushing higher every week. Grinds held steady for the next week but I do think we will see grinds pushing higher with all the other cuts. This is a buy now, waiting will cost you money market. And I’m adding keep well ahead of your needs, this is going to be an interesting summer for beef.
POULTRY Chicken continues to roll on, production continues about 2% over last year and demand is taking all that production. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders moving up again next week and this seems to be a pattern we could see for a few weeks. Wings holding steady after last week’s move higher. Even with the recent increases chicken remains the choice for protein value.
On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 9 new cases affecting 98K birds.
GRAINS – Even war cant move the cost of corn. Corn closed at $4.59 just up from $4.58 last week. Preliminary estimates for this years crop down 5 million acres from last year, while soy is planning more acreage. The soy rally is pushing up again after a couple weeks stall. Wheat is moving higher mostly on international unrest.
PORK Pork bellies are hanging right around that $150 mark, today’s close $149. We could see this move higher but I think it will be later in spring or early summer. The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and pricing is good.
DAIRY Another quiet week on the CME, which will be closed on Good Friday so this is the week’s close. Butter dropped 3, barrel is up 1, and block had no change.
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Beef demand is not backing down, consumer demand for protein continues to increase even as our beef industry continues to contract. No doubt aided by the JBS strike, beef production was only 508K head last week and I expect we will see similar numbers for this week. The market is tight, there is just not that much beef coming to market. Prices are moving higher pretty much across the board. Middle meats, those strips, ribeyes and tenderloins continue to lead this market higher. Thin meats, skirt, flank, sirloin flap, all tight and moving higher, setting up a very expensive Cinco de Mayo. I will continue to recommend buying as soon as feasible, waiting in this market will cost you money, and with the tight inventory,
I’d keep as far ahead on needs as possible. I think I say this every year but the summer grilling season will be expensive.
POULTRY Chicken demand continues strong as well as production which continues about 2% over last year. Even with strong supply, prices are moving higher. Wings come out of their funk moving up a few pennies while boneless skinless random breasts and clipped tenders are moving up every day. I do expect chicken to continue moving higher over the next few weeks.
On the avian flu front, another 15 new cases affecting 130K birds, this week, mostly ducks.
GRAINS – the recent run up on soy and canola has hit a pause, week two holding onto recent gains, but not advancing further. There is still plenty of inventory to meet demand. Corn and wheat continue to tread in the same narrow trading band, we have plenty of grains to move.
PORK Pork bellies down a dollar from last week to $152, I still expect we could see $200 bellies this summer. Pork production is good, well supplied. Loins are moving higher by a few cents, butts and ribs holding steady.
DAIRY Dairy markets had a fairly quiet week, butter is steady, block is up 3 and barrel is up 2. I do think we have more upside to this market.
OK with that I’m done, thanks for listening, we’ll do agai
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BEEF: I've been saying for a few weeks now it would not be a bad idea to keep well ahead of your needs. I’m doubling down on this as the reduced production we’ve seen this year is impacting product availability and pricing. Inventories will be tighter still with reduced production and increasing demand. Last week’s harvest was 521k head, running a full 10% behind last year’s reduced production. Markets are responding hard to this tight inventory, everything, I mean everything is moving higher. Led by middle meats, ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins, but all cuts are seeing increases. I’ve seen a couple analysts have the opinion this surge will scare off consumers and turn back down. I hope they are right and I’m wrong, but right now all I see in increases and strong demand. I’d buy now, waiting will cost you money.
Chicken will be the alternate protein of choice for consumers moving from higher priced beef. Wings are lower a third week, I don’t see this lasting much longer while boneless skinless randoms and tenders are moving higher. I do expect chicken increases to continue. Proudction is running about 2% ahead of last year and demand is keeping the product moving.
On the Avian Flu front, another difficult week, 20 new cases reported affect 3.5 million birds, mostly egg layers. The northern migration is in full swing now, I do hope we get some relief soon
Soy and canola have another strong week moving higher. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy oil but demand and moving product to biofuels has spurred this market higher. Not so for corn and wheat continuing to trade sideways.
Pork bellies leveled off at $153 same as last week. Bacon prices will be moving up but hopefully we get a few weeks breather. Loins, butts, ribs, all still a good value. Pork continues to be a great protein value.
The dairy market went on a tear last week, giving back almost all the gains this week. As of Thursday’s CME close, butter is down 16, barrel and block are both down 2. We’ll see what next week brings.
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Beef production continues restrained to keep prices up and packer losses as small as possible. 516K head produced last week, same as the previous week. Heading into spring this is keeping the beef supply tight and prices supported. We have the smallest beef herd since 1951 when there were half as many people in the country. That is not turning around anytime soon. Regarding current market prices, everything is going up. Ribeyes and strip loins will be leading prices higher for the next few weeks. Grind demand is strong and prices moving up as well. Chuck had a nice few weeks of declines, that is over, rounds never lost support and continue to move higher. I do think middle meats and thin meats, flanks, skirts, sirloin flap, will all be tight and expensive, already looking at Cinco de Mayo. We are at the start of a steady move higher, I’d advise buy sooner, rather than later, waiting will cost you money. Keep well ahead of your needs, this market is going to be expensive and tight.
Poultry production continues to run about 2% ahead of last year. Demand is good, production is strong, pricing is holding up, though wings declined a second week in a row. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders… holding steady. It’s a good time to menu chicken. On the Avian flu front, its ugly. 23 new cases reported in the last week affecting 4.8Millioin birds, 4 million of those birds were egg layers. I’m not feeling good about spring migration.
Soy markets continue to climb. Its been so long since we’ve seen a bull market in soy. Soy oil and canola oil, both moving higher with good export demand and higher biofuel usage. We may see this plateau in the next couple weeks, but right now, soy is on a tear. Corn and wheat… not so much . Still trading sideways and I don’t see that changing.
Pork bellies continue to march higher, today’s close $153 up from last week $148. I don’t think we are done by any stretch. Bacon will be going up. Contrary to rest of the pork complex, plenty of inventory, prices are good. Yes, menu pork.
Butter took a huge run up this week. Thru Thursday’s close on the CME butter is up 24! That’s a big move. Barrel and block both up 3 but butter is the big mover. We’ll see if the markets hold these recent gains, but for now all signs point to a higher dairy costs.
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Beef is tight. Bellies are climbing. Birds are under watch. The seasonal shift may bring more than warmer weather.
BEEF: Production is down 10% YTD, with last week at just 516K head. The smallest herd in 75 years keeps supply tight as spring demand builds. Strips and ribeyes look ready to lead a March run – and thin meats may feel it first.
POULTRY: Production is up 2%, but hatch rates under 79% raise questions. Wings dip while breasts hold steady. Thirteen new avian flu cases hit 550K birds – just as migration ramps up.
GRAINS: Soy keeps climbing on export deals and biofuel demand. Corn and wheat stay stuck. Three weeks into the rally, and now we see if it has legs.
PORK: Bellies jumped to $146, nearing $150 faster than expected. Bacon will follow, and elevated pricing could stick into summer. The rest of pork remains a value, but for how long?
DAIRY: Barrel up 5. Block up 6. Butter up 7. Dairy is clearly moving higher, and it doesn’t look finished yet.
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Production is steady. Prices dipped. But nearly 5 million birds are gone – and migration season is just getting started.
BEEF: Harvest rose to 541K head, but we’re still running well behind last year. Middle meats are inching higher, especially strips, while chucks soften and grinds slip again (for now). Production isn’t growing. Plan accordingly.
POULTRY: Production is up 2% year over year, but the early-year price run just stalled. Wings, breasts, and tenders dipped slightly. Meanwhile, avian flu hit hard again, and spring migration could make things interesting.
GRAINS: Soy oil is moving higher for a second straight week, surprising given the supply. Corn slipped back, wheat flat. Right now, soy has the spotlight.
PORK: Bellies climbed again to $138 and still look headed higher. The rest of the complex is steady and balanced. Nothing dramatic… yet.
DAIRY: Dairy has direction. Block jumped, butter keeps recovering, barrel ticking up. Momentum is building.
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Valentine’s Day is here, and while roses get the spotlight, the real story is in the markets. Ribeyes and tenderloins are holding steady, strips keep climbing, pork bellies are inching higher, and poultry hasn’t lost its upward momentum. Add in a little lift from soy and a steady dairy tone, and this week feels like a seasonal shift — not a surge, but a quiet build as we move from winter toward spring.
BEEF: Harvest edged higher to 536K head. Middle meats are steady, strips keep climbing, and thin meats are gaining momentum earlier than usual. Grinds paused — but don’t get too comfortable.
POULTRY: Strong production and strong demand keep prices trending higher. Breasts and tenders lead, wings finally steady. Avian flu cases slowed, but the story isn’t over.
GRAINS: Soy is making a move thanks to biofuel demand. Corn is flat, wheat trying to find direction. Feels like the start of something — we’ll see.
PORK: Bellies climbed again to $135 and are building into spring. Loins still a value, butts and ribs inching up. Bacon buyers, take note.
DAIRY: A mixed CME week — small moves in both directions. Nothing dramatic… yet.
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From tightening beef supplies and climbing poultry prices to the first real lift in pork bellies and a dairy market finding its footing, this week feels like a shift. Nothing is running away yet, but momentum is building, and the next few weeks could look very different.
BEEF: Tight production is keeping beef supported, with strips still climbing and Valentine’s Day putting a floor under ribeyes and tenderloins. With a shrinking herd, there may be more upward pressure ahead.
POULTRY: Avian Flu losses jumped again, already lifting egg prices, while chicken continues its steady climb – and there’s still room to run.
GRAINS: Heavy supplies kept corn flat and wheat slightly lower, with soy oil’s push higher stalling – but this story isn’t over yet.
PORK: Bellies finally moved higher and should keep climbing into spring, pulling bacon along with them. This run may just be getting started.
DAIRY: Butter led another week of gains as the dairy market firmed up, and the momentum could continue.
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Markets are slowly building momentum as Valentine’s Day demand begins to take shape. Beef inches higher, chicken keeps climbing, pork waits for its next move, dairy tests a rally, and grains remain quiet. The coming weeks will show whether this momentum sticks — or stalls.
BEEF: Production pulled back last week as middle meats begin their seasonal climb toward Valentine’s Day. With strips already charging higher and end cuts showing mixed signals, this market feels ready for its next move.
POULTRY: Chicken prices keep pushing higher with no real resistance in sight. But a major jump in avian flu losses adds a new wildcard that could shift the story quickly.
GRAINS: Grain markets continue drifting sideways, weighed down by ample supply. Until demand shows up in force, this quiet pattern looks set to continue.
PORK: Bellies hesitated just as a rally seemed ready to start, leaving pork in value territory a bit longer. The question now is how long this pause really lasts.
DAIRY: Dairy keeps rallying, but recent trading raises doubts about how strong this move really is. The next couple of weeks should reveal whether this run has legs.
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Winter’s grip on the markets is starting to loosen. Beef has turned higher sooner than expected, chicken keeps climbing, pork begins its spring setup, dairy shows signs of life, and grains remain frozen in place. This early shift may be subtle — but it could shape the market mood for the weeks ahead.
BEEF: The post-holiday slide is officially over, and beef is turning back up sooner than expected. Middle meats are leading the shift, with the rest of the complex quietly following. Any values left may not stick around long.
POULTRY: Chicken keeps climbing as strong demand meets steady production. With avian flu still present and prices already moving, this market looks set to stay on the offensive for a bit.
GRAINS: Grains remain stuck in neutral, weighed down by plenty of supply and no clear catalyst. Until something changes, this market looks content to wait.
PORK: The window for cheap bellies has closed, and bacon prices are setting up for a steady spring climb. Pork still offers value — but the direction is starting to shift.
DAIRY: Butter finally found its footing, and dairy may be ready to turn the corner. Whether this is the start of a rebound or just a pause is the next story to watch.
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January is doing what it does best – pulling markets in opposite directions. Beef splits between falling middle meats and rising end cuts, chicken prices wake up, pork stays a value, grains soften, and dairy pushes into rare territory. These early-year moves may look quiet, but they’re setting up what comes next.
BEEF: The New Year split continues — middle meats are sliding while end cuts quietly climb. With Valentine’s Day approaching and demand holding steady, this market is setting up for its next turn sooner than it looks.
POULTRY: Chicken prices are officially on the move, led by breasts with wings and tenders following close behind. Add a slipping hatch rate and ongoing avian flu cases, and this value market may not stay cheap for long.
GRAINS: Grain prices took another step lower as supply keeps growing faster than demand. Great news for feeders, but these markets are still searching for a spark.
PORK: Pork remains one of the strongest values on the board, even as prices begin to inch higher. With steady production ahead, this quiet strength could be telling.
DAIRY: Dairy keeps pushing lower into territory we haven’t seen since the pandemic. Whether this creates short-term opportunity or signals something deeper is the question worth watching.
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The calendar flipped, and the markets followed. Beef is splitting seasonally, chicken is finally waking up, pork remains a value with signs of strength, grains won’t budge, and dairy keeps testing new lows. This is the quiet part of the year where small shifts now can mean big moves later.
BEEF: The New Year reset is in full swing — middle meats are sliding fast while roasts and grinds quietly push higher. This seasonal split is right on schedule. The question is which side of the market you want to be on before January wraps up.
POULTRY: After weeks of waiting, chicken prices are finally turning higher, led by breasts and now wings as the playoff season kicks in. With avian flu still very much in play, this market may not give buyers much time to react.
GRAINS: Grain prices remain stuck in neutral, offering continued relief for protein markets. Until something breaks the pattern, this quiet stretch looks firmly in place.
PORK: Pork remains one of the best values on the board, but signs of strength are starting to show. Bellies are holding steady for now — the next move feels closer than it looks.
DAIRY: Butter has hit a five-year low while cheese shows hints of stabilizing. It’s a rare pricing moment that may not stick around long.
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The holiday push is wrapping up, and the markets are starting to show their hand. Beef is splitting in two directions, poultry feels steady but uneasy, pork stays a value, grains won’t budge, and dairy may finally be finding a floor. With January right around the corner, the next two weeks could set the tone for everything that follows.
BEEF: Holiday pricing is making its final stand, and the beef market is starting to split in two directions. Middle meats are finally easing while other cuts quietly set up their next move. Two weeks from now, this market could look very different.
POULTRY: Chicken finishes the year well supplied and steady, but this calm feels temporary. With avian flu still popping up and no real downside left, the next move is likely up – the only question is when.
GRAINS: Soy export news finally surfaced, but the grain markets barely blinked. Corn, soy, and wheat remain stuck in neutral, waiting for something – anything – to break the stalemate.
PORK: Bellies slide again, keeping bacon firmly in value territory heading into the new year. With strong production and solid inventories, pork remains one of the quiet winners on the board.
DAIRY: Dairy prices are sending mixed signals, hinting the recent slide may be running out of steam. Whether this is the bottom or just another pause is the next story to watch.
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Holiday demand reminded the markets who’s in charge — beef hit rare production levels while premium cuts held firm. As poultry and grains wait it out, pork stays a value and dairy keeps sliding into bargain territory. With the calendar about to flip, the real question is what holds… and what finally gives in the new year.
BEEF: Holiday demand pushed production to a rare 600K head, but premium cuts are still commanding top dollar. The big question now – have middle meats finally hit their seasonal ceiling, and what happens next when the calendar flips?
POULTRY: Chicken pricing stays calm and steady as we head toward the new year. But with avian flu cases climbing again, could this quiet market be one headline away from changing fast?
GRAINS: Corn, soy, and wheat continue to tread water, moving just enough to stay interesting. Until something breaks the pattern, this market looks content to wait it out.
PORK: Bellies bounced back this week, but the pork market feels stuck in neutral. With plenty of value still reminding buyers why pork stays on the menu, does this calm stretch continue into January?
DAIRY: Cheese keeps sliding while butter barely blinks, turning dairy into one of the best bargains on the board. The question now – how much lower can it really go before demand steps in?
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Middle meats are the gift that keeps getting pricier, and buyers are wondering whether the peak is finally here. Meanwhile, poultry stays affordable, pork remains a value, and dairy drops to holiday-baking lows — making this week’s markets as mixed as a stocking full of surprises.
BEEF: Holiday pricing is testing its limits, and while middle meats are sky-high, the market may finally be running out of steam. Chucks, rounds, and thin meats are slipping, and production numbers continue to reveal a shrinking cattle supply heading into 2026. Are we finally approaching the turn — or just pausing before another surge?
POULTRY: Chicken remains the protein value hero of the season, with production up and pricing steady across wings, breasts, and tenders. But with avian flu cases continuing to creep in, could this calm be short-lived?
GRAINS: Grain prices are stuck in neutral, with corn holding firm and soy struggling to spark a rally. Something has to give — the question is when, and what will finally move the needle?
PORK: Bacon buyers rejoice — bellies are still a bargain at $118. But a new African Swine Flu outbreak in Spain could scramble global pork demand overnight. Is the export domino about to fall?
DAIRY: Cheese keeps sliding with no clear bottom in sight, while butter flirts with a small bounce at record-low pandemic-era pricing. Is this dip a buy signal — or just the midpoint of a bigger correction?
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As we head into Thanksgiving, the markets are serving up a mixed plate — some items are easing, others are heating up, and a few might burn your budget. Whether it’s a gravy train or a little holiday pain depends on the protein. Let’s dig in and see what’s really simmering this week.
BEEF: Middle meats are heating up fast for the holidays, with ribeyes, strips, and tenderloins pushing higher and showing no signs of slowing. Chucks and rounds are softening a bit, but ground beef is still gaining strength — the question is how high these premiums will run through December.
POULTRY: Chicken remains steady despite massive production levels, with wings, breasts, and tenders barely moving. But after 23 new avian flu cases this week, will this calm hold through the winter migration?
GRAINS: Soy tried to rally and stalled, corn slipped, and wheat held steady — nothing seems able to spark this market. With winter wheat nearly fully planted, the real question is what it will take to break this grain gridlock.
PORK: Bellies finally broke lower, dropping $22 to $118, and this softer market may carry well into December. With strong production and plenty of supply, will pork remain the best value on the protein board?
DAIRY: Dairy keeps sliding, with block, barrel, and butter all moving lower again — and butter now at its cheapest point since 2021. The big question: will low holiday pricing spark demand, or is there still more room to fall?
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Markets are shifting as the holidays approach — beef heats up with middle meats climbing, chicken stays steady, and pork holds its value. Grains stay quiet, and dairy continues to slide with butter finally leveling off. The big question: is this the start of the holiday run-up, or just the calm before real volatility hits?
BEEF: Middle meats are stealing the show as ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips push higher into the holidays. With grinds leading the pack and demand building, this market’s heating up fast — the only question is how high it’ll climb before December cools it down.
POULTRY: Chicken remains steady and well supplied, prices barely moving either way. But with another wave of avian flu reports and migration season still underway, how long can this calm market last?
GRAINS: Corn, soy, and wheat all dipped slightly after last week’s optimism faded. Good news for feeders — not so much for farmers — but could holiday demand finally stir this sleepy grain market?
PORK: Bellies are steady around $140, keeping bacon lovers happy and buyers relaxed. Pork remains one of the best protein values out there — but how long will this balanced market hold?
DAIRY: Butter finally stopped sliding, but cheese keeps melting down with barrels and blocks still dropping. With prices this low, could we be setting up for a holiday dairy rebound?
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As the holidays close in, markets are showing their seasonal split — beef buyers are getting bold while poultry prices cool and dairy keeps sliding. With soy stirring and pork settling, everyone’s stocking up for the end-of-year rush… but which way will prices break when the wrapping paper comes off?
BEEF: Holiday buying is kicking in and prices are heading higher across the board, with ribeyes, tenderloins, and even strips taking off. Demand is rising, supply isn’t budging, and this market looks set to climb straight into December — the only question is how fast.
POULTRY: Chicken remains steady with strong production and flat pricing — barely a penny either way. But with fresh avian flu cases popping up again, will this calm market hold through the holidays?
GRAINS: Soy finally woke up on export news, with wheat following higher, while corn slipped a touch. If global buying picks up, could this be the start of that grain momentum we’ve been waiting for?
PORK: Bellies pulled back to $140 after last week’s spike, making now a great time for bacon buyers. Pork remains one of the best values in protein — but will seasonal demand tighten things up heading into winter?
DAIRY: Last week’s bump vanished fast — cheese and butter dropped again, turning dairy into a surprising value play. The question now is whether holiday demand can stop this slide or if prices keep melting.
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Markets are starting to settle after weeks of decline. Beef finds its bottom, chicken holds steady, pork pops, and dairy and grains edge higher. The big question — is this the foundation for a rebound, or just a pause before the next dip?
BEEF: After weeks of decline, the market has found its floor. Ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips are on the rise again — the question is how fast this rebound will move.
POULTRY: Chicken prices have steadied after big drops, with only minor movement expected. But as avian flu cases climb again, how long can this calm last?
GRAINS: Talk of a new trade deal with China pushed corn, soy, and wheat higher. If exports pick up, could this be the start of a grain rally?
PORK: Bellies spiked $20 to $151, catching the market off guard. Is this a one-week blip or the start of a seasonal climb?
DAIRY: Cheese is moving higher, butter finally holding steady. The big question — can demand keep this rally alive with supply still strong?
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Still no government reports on markets, but we're piecing a few things together to get a good feel of what's happening. Butter is now trading at levels we’ve not seen since the pandemic five years ago. I don’t think there is much more downside to this butter market, but lets see where it goes. I do think cheese has better potential for a minor rally for the next few weeks.
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Chicken prices have hit their lowest level in two years, making it the week’s biggest story. Beef’s slowdown continues, pork holds steady, and dairy drifts lower — but poultry steals the spotlight as the market’s best deal.
BEEF: Prices are still drifting lower, though the declines are slowing. Middle meats are already ticking back up, hinting that the bottom may be near — but just how long before demand heats things up again?
POULTRY: Chicken prices keep sliding, with boneless skinless breasts hitting their lowest point in two years. As demand cools and avian flu flares, the question is: how much longer can this market remain this soft?
GRAINS: Harvests are booming and inventories are stacked, leaving corn, soy, and wheat all stuck in neutral. With talk of a biofuel push on the horizon, could soy finally be what shakes this market awake?
PORK: Pork is steady, bellies holding at $134 while production rises with cooler weather. Processors may soon start stockpiling for spring, but for now, is this the calm before the climb?
DAIRY: Last week’s brief rally fizzled, with cheese and butter slipping again. Butter remains a seasonal bargain, but the question is — can this quiet market stay this smooth through the holidays?
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Markets have slowed to a crawl, with beef, chicken, and pork all easing while buyers wait for a clear direction. Grains stay quiet, and dairy can’t decide which way to move. It’s a week of watching, waiting, and wondering what’s next.
BEEF: The market keeps trending lower as buyers wait for the bottom, with even middle meats taking a brief pause. The question is – are we nearing the end of this slide, or just the calm before the holiday push?
POULTRY: Chicken is nearing the bottom of its market slide, with boneless skinless breasts at their lowest price in 18 months and wings and tenders still drifting lower. The real test will come if avian flu worsens — could another surge flip this calm market on its head?
GRAINS: With no new government reports, the markets stayed quiet — corn slipped slightly to $4.02 while soy and wheat barely budged. It’s a holding pattern for now, but how long can these calm prices last before harvest data shakes things up?
PORK: Bellies keep sliding, closing at $134 from last week’s $151 — good news for anyone buying bacon. The rest of the pork market is holding steady for now, but will this calm stretch last, or is another swing around the corner?
DAIRY: The CME is split this week — cheese is climbing again with block up ½ and barrel up 4, while butter slid another 9 points. The question now is whether this mixed trend signals a market shift, or just more churn before the holidays.
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This week the markets send mixed signals – beef prices slide but middle meats refuse to budge, chicken keeps dropping while avian flu stirs again, and pork bellies dip as loins hold value. Grains stay calm and dairy finally bounces after weeks of decline. Is this the start of real relief, or just the setup for another rally?
BEEF: Prices are slipping across most cuts, with chucks, sirloin flap, rounds, and grinds leading the way lower. Even ribeyes and tenderloins paused their climb, though holiday demand will likely push them higher again soon. The big question – will packers tighten harvests to stop the fall, or do we get a few more weeks of relief?
POULTRY: Chicken prices keep sliding, with boneless skinless breasts hitting 18-month lows and no clear bottom yet. Production still looks strong, though government reporting is on pause during the shutdown. The real watch – does this drop keep running, or are we about to hit the floor?
GRAINS: Harvest is rolling along, and markets aren’t budging much. Corn slipped to $4.06 from $4.15 last week, with soy and wheat stuck in the same tight range. With big crops expected, the question is – what’s it going to take to shake these markets out of neutral?
PORK: Bellies keep sliding, down to $151 from last week’s $169 – and that means bacon pricing should ease too. Butts and ribs are inching higher, while loins continue to shine as the best value in pork. The question now – is this just a seasonal dip, or the start of a bigger shift in pork markets?
DAIRY: After six straight weeks of declines, the CME finally turned higher. Barrel is up 6, block up 10, and even butter ended its slide with a 6-point gain. The big question – is this the start of a real rally, or just a short bounce before more pressure ahead?
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The screw worm is closing in on Texas, threatening the nation’s largest cattle herd and the beef market with it. Avian flu resurfaces, pork stays steady, and butter keeps sliding – but is beef facing its biggest challenge yet?
BEEF: The new screw worm was found less than 70 miles from Texas, potentially impacting the beef industry. Prices are falling for many cuts, but ribeyes and tenderloins stay expensive. The real question – do we have a few more weeks of relief, or are we on the brink of something much bigger?
POULTRY: Avian flu has returned, hitting 2.5 million egg layers in Wisconsin, with more turkey cases piling on. Chicken prices are falling, with wings, breasts, and tenders dropping in price. The question now is – will this market reset hold, or will avian flu spoil the party?
GRAINS: Argentina tried a quick cash grab by suspending export duties on corn and soy, raking in billions in just two days before reinstating them. Here in the U.S., the markets barely blinked – corn ticked up to $4.15, with soy and wheat holding steady. Will global moves finally shake up these calm grain markets, or are we stuck in steady mode for a while longer?
PORK: Bellies nudged up to $169, but don’t be fooled – I still see more downside ahead for this market. Loins are steady, ribs are inching higher, and butts are showing some strength. The big question – are we about to see pork finally heat up, or will it stay the quiet value play against beef’s chaos?
DAIRY: The CME finally showed a flicker of life this week – barrel had its first uptick in a month, block slipped a bit lower, and butter keeps sliding. Is this the true bottom we’ve been waiting for, or will butter keep melting into the holiday baking season?
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After weeks of rising costs, the markets are finally taking a breather. Beef is still tight, chicken is easing, pork bellies are drifting lower, and dairy might be finding its bottom. It’s not a full cooldown, but it feels like the first exhale in a long while.
BEEF: Harvest ticked up to 561K head, but most cuts are easing lower – a welcome shift after months of pressure. Middle meats like ribeyes and tenderloins remain stubbornly high, and with the holidays ahead, record pricing could be in play. The real question: how long before consumer pushback forces this market to blink?
POULTRY: Production is still running hot – over 7 billion chickens processed this year – but now supply is outpacing demand, pushing prices down across wings, breasts, and tenders. The seasonal dip isn’t unusual, but the size of these price drops is worth watching. Meanwhile, avian flu is stirring again with seven new turkey cases, hinting the calm streak may be over.
GRAINS: Harvest is just beginning, with corn already 7% in – but prices are holding steady. Corn slipped slightly to $4.11, while soy and wheat stayed flat, with biofuel quotas on the horizon that could shift demand for soy. For now, it’s steady fields and steady markets – but will harvest season bring surprises?
PORK: Pork remains the best bang for your protein buck as beef prices stay sky-high. Bellies slipped again to $168, with more downside likely in the weeks ahead. Loins are still the standout value, while butts and ribs are just inching up – making this the season to menu pork.
DAIRY: Week five of declines has the CME looking softer, but this slide might be about done. Barrel dropped 4, block held steady, and butter tumbled another 15 – the steepest of the bunch. Are we finally at the bottom, or is there one more dip left?
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Poultry leads the move lower as chicken prices ease, but across the board, the markets are full of mixed signals. Beef stays strong, dairy keeps sliding, and pork and grains add their own twists.
BEEF: Demand is cooling a touch with grinds, briskets, and flanks easing back, but ribeyes and tenderloins are still charging higher. Supplies remain too tight for a true correction, so any relief looks more like a pause than a pullback. Heading into the holidays, the pain point for consumers hasn’t hit yet – and we may not be close.
POULTRY: Avian flu is back in the headlines – six new cases this week, hitting nearly 300K turkeys, stirred up by cooler weather and migration. On the chicken side, it’s all good news: supply is finally ahead of demand, bringing prices down across the board. The question is, how long will the balance last?
GRAINS: Markets are holding steady with corn at $4.17, soy flat, and wheat unchanged. All eyes are on the USDA report out Friday – if crop yield estimates are trimmed, we could finally see a push higher. Until then, it’s calm in the grain bin.
PORK: Bellies finally slipped, closing at $172 – down $10 from last week – and should keep easing over the next few weeks. But with cold storage stocks very low, don’t expect a major falloff. Meanwhile, butts and ribs are ticking higher, loins are steady, and pork still delivers solid value on the plate.
DAIRY: It’s week four of declines at the CME – barrel down 8, block off 7, and butter slipping another 3. The slide keeps rolling, and while it’s unclear how long it will last, for now we’ll take the ride.
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Summer’s still sizzling in the beef market, but other proteins and dairy are slipping. From ribeye highs to butter slides, it’s a week of high steaks and low falls across the board.
BEEF: Signs point to the market finally cooling as we move through September – but it may be short-lived. Ribeyes, tenderloins, chucks, rounds, and grinds are still climbing, though thin meats like skirts and briskets are starting to slip. With herds small and Mexico still closed, high prices aren’t going anywhere soon… moderation may be coming, but not just yet.
POULTRY: Production stays strong – up about 1% – but prices are sliding for the second week straight. Wings, breasts, and tenders are all moving lower, making chicken a solid feature right now. Still, with one new avian flu case reported and cooler weather coming, could we see trouble ahead?
GRAINS: Corn nudged back over $4 for the first time in three weeks as export demand looks solid and crop estimates soften a bit from “best ever” to “some issues.” Soy keeps trying to rally but can’t quite get there, while wheat remains the bargain buy of the bunch.
PORK: Bellies are stuck in the $180–$185 range, closing at $182 – but the next move looks lower, so it’s not the time to load up. Butts and ribs are bouncing back after recent declines, while loins continue to be the standout value cut.
DAIRY: Week three of a sliding CME – barrel down 1, block down 3, and butter off another 11 after last week’s steep drop. It’s not a massive slide, but the steady decline is adding up – will the dip deepen, or start to level out?
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Summer’s wrapping up, but the markets are still making waves. Pork bellies take a dive, beef keeps the heat on, and chicken cools just in time for football season. From butter drops to grain gluts, it’s a late-summer belly flop across the board.
BEEF: Prices keep climbing as production stays tight – 547K head harvested this week and even fewer expected with the holiday ahead. Chucks, grinds, ribeyes, and tenderloins are leading the charge, while strips are still the relative value. The market may cool off soon, but not yet – buy now, waiting will cost you money.
POULTRY: Chicken prices finally cooled off for Labor Day – wings, breasts, and tenders are all down. Production is still running strong, about 1% ahead of last year, so we’ll take the win and enjoy cheaper chicken for now. One small avian flu case popped up, but nothing major.
GRAINS: Another rally fizzled – corn harvest is pegged at a massive 16.7 billion bushels, keeping prices in check. Corn nudged up slightly to $3.94, while soy and wheat stayed flat. With crops this strong, the market’s still waiting for a spark to push things higher.
PORK: Bellies slipped again, closing at $181 with more downside likely ahead. Butts and loins are steady, ribs are edging up, and overall production is running about 2% lower year-to-date. With nothing pushing demand higher, this market looks set to stay quiet for the next few weeks.
DAIRY: CME gave back August’s gains – barrel down 2, block down 3, and butter dropping a sharp 14. After weeks of climbing, this market is sliding fast… will the downturn stick?
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Sorry for the delay, we were on vacation on Friday. Market Updates for last week below!
BEEF: Prices keep climbing across the board – ribeyes, tenderloins, chucks, and rounds are all on fire. With packers still losing money, production dropping, and the Southern border closed to live animal imports, pressure is building. Relief may come after Labor Day – but will it be too little, too late?
POULTRY: Chicken stays strong with production up and demand steady – wings are flat for now while breasts and tenders ease a bit. Football season could give wings a lift, but the real watch is Avian Flu: after six clean weeks, a new case breaks the streak. Will cooler weather bring more trouble?
GRAINS: Harvest is underway and while yields look good, they’re not record-shattering just yet. Corn is holding under $4 for a third straight week, soy is showing some strength on export demand, and wheat is slipping. The market looks steady – but will exports or tariffs be the wild card?
PORK: Bellies look like they’ve peaked, slipping back to $182 from last week’s $194 – and likely heading lower into fall. With butts and loins down and ribs steady, pork remains one of the best buys on the menu. But is this the break buyers have been waiting for, or just a seasonal pause?
DAIRY: After a couple of big weeks higher, the market eased back – barrel down 1½, block steady, and butter slipping just ½. The push has cooled for now, but will those gains start to melt further in the weeks ahead?
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BEEF: The summer beef rally isn’t slowing down – low production and high demand are keeping prices on the move. Middle meats, chucks, rounds, and grinds are all climbing, setting us up for a pricey Labor Day BBQ. Will the market cool after the holiday, or will tight cattle supplies keep the heat on?
POULTRY: Production is running 1% ahead of last year, with demand staying strong as chicken remains the go-to alternative to high beef prices. Wings are steady for now, but will football season send them higher? Six weeks with no new Avian Flu cases – let’s keep it going.
GRAINS: Corn prices remain under $4 with a record U.S. harvest on the horizon – great for feeders, rough for farmers. But with soy inching up on palm oil tariffs and wheat holding steady, could this calm market be setting the stage for a surprise turn?
PORK: Bellies cracked the $200 mark before slipping back – still riding high for now. But with just a few more weeks of seasonal strength left, will the fall bring the big break buyers have been waiting for?
DAIRY: Cheese keeps climbing – barrel up 6, block up 4 – but butter’s the rebel, dropping 11 points. With baking season buying about to kick off, is the clock ticking on those lower butter prices?
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BEEF: Prices are surging in the dead of summer – and it’s not slowing down. With record-high cattle costs and packers losing $300 a head, the market’s acting more like spring than August… so what’s driving this upside?
POULTRY: Chicken stays steady – strong production, strong demand, and no big price moves on the horizon. With five weeks flu-free and beef heating up, is poultry about to hold its ground or ride the market wave?
GRAINS: Grains keep sliding – with corn dipping under $4 a bushel for the first time in a long while. Soy and wheat are following suit, but could strong soy meal exports shake things up?
PORK: Pork bellies bounce back to $189 – and the strength may hold through month’s end. But with loins, butts, and ribs slipping, how long will the split market last?
DAIRY: The CME heats up – barrel jumps 11, block climbs 12, and butter bucks the trend, sliding 4.
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BEEF: The market’s still sliding, but not as fast as you'd think with production this tight. Ribeyes and tenderloins? We may have already hit the year's low – so is an expensive holiday season inevitable? Thin meats are dropping, grinds dipped too, but this market’s playing a long game.
POULTRY: Chicken production is holding strong – wings are steady, breasts are ticking up, and tenders dipped a bit. Demand isn’t going anywhere, but will prices stay calm? Plus, we’re a month Avian flu-free – can we keep the streak alive?
GRAINS: Strong crops, weak exports, and tariff concerns are pushing corn, soy, and wheat lower. Prices are slipping – but is this a true bargain, or just the calm before another shakeup?
PORK: The pork market’s moving lower – and even bellies are along for the ride. Is this a one-week blip or the start of an early slide? We’ll need another week to see where this goes.
DAIRY: After weeks of slipping, butter’s starting to climb again – but is it just a pause or a new trend? This week’s calm might be the quiet before the next churn.
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BEEF: The summer slide continues. Ribeyes and strips are dragging the market down, and briskets and grinds are finally dipping – but don’t let your guard down just yet. With production still sluggish, we’ve likely got a few more weeks of softness before fall starts cooking up something new.
POULTRY: Demand is driving this market – wings, breasts, and tenders are all on the rise. With summer heat slowing growth and no sign of appetite cooling off, prices could keep climbing. Three Avian Flu-free weeks in a row? Let’s hope the streak sticks.
GRAINS: Crops look great and prices are steady – for now. With new tariffs on deck and shifting global demand, especially for soy, the calm could break. Keep your eyes peeled… August might shake things up.
PORK: Bellies keep climbing – $200 is in sight – while everything else takes a breather. Butts and loins are easing down, making loins a standout value. If you’re planning menus, now’s the time to think pork.
DAIRY: Things are calm in cheese country – just a slight move in block and barrel this week. Butter’s taking the stairs down again, and it’s not done dropping yet. Could be more room to melt.
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BEEF: Beef is finally cooling off—but is it enough? Strip loins and ribeyes are leading the decline, but ground beef and roasts are holding firm. With production still lagging behind last year, could this be the start of a slow slide or just a summer stall?
POULTRY: Chicken remains the go-to protein, but how long can it hold? Wings are flying high on demand, breasts and tenders are steady, and production is slightly up. No new Avian Flu reports this week, which is always good news.
GRAINS: Soybeans are about to stir things up. Despite strong supply and a promising crop, new demand for biofuel could send prices climbing fast. Will corn and wheat follow suit? Stay tuned.
PORK: Bellies keep marching higher, and there’s no sign of slowing. While other cuts ease off recent highs, bacon’s sizzling summer run looks far from over – will August bring the peak, or just more heat?
DAIRY: Dairy takes a dip across the board this week – but is it the bottom, or just the beginning? With block, barrel, and butter all sliding, the market may have more room to melt.
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Beef: Beef prices are finally starting to cool after the July 4th holiday – but how fast will they fall, and which cuts will drop first? With low production still keeping things tight, we’re not in freefall territory yet… but if you’re buying ribeyes, strips, or grinds, you’ll want to hear what’s coming next.
Poultry: Chicken remains the go-to protein, with wings in tight supply and prices climbing again. Breasts and tenders are steady for now – but with hot summer temps affecting animal intake and a new avian flu case on the radar, will this balanced market stay steady... or tip?
Grains: Prices are down across corn, soy, and wheat, but with crops thriving in the fields and new tariffs shaking up export dynamics, how long will this calm last?
Pork: Bacon lovers, brace yourselves—bellies are climbing and could hit $200 soon. But beyond bacon? The rest of the pork market is cooling off… for now.
Dairy: A calm week on the dairy front—but is it the quiet before a dip? With butter holding steady and cheese prices barely budging, the market might just be gearing up for a slide.
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Beef is still riding high – tight supply, strong demand, and prices climbing week after week. But is relief finally in sight? You might want to stock up before the July 4th smoke clears… 🍔🔥
Wings are flying high, breasts are still dropping, and tenders are holding their ground – but has chicken found its balance yet? With nearly 5 billion birds processed and no new avian flu cases, something’s gotta give… 🍗🐔
Grains took a tumble this week, so is the rally already over? With strong crop conditions, ample supply, and fierce global competition, prices are falling fast. Could weather or global tensions stir things up again? 🌾
Bacon lovers, brace yourselves – bellies are on a summer sprint. Prices are sizzling higher week after week, and ribs and butts are joining the charge. But is this hot streak about to cool off… or just getting started? 🥓
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🐄 Beef is still sky-high – and it’s not done climbing. With production low and demand strong, one cut in particular is leading the charge this summer… guess which?
🐔 Chicken is having a moment – and tenders just took the crown from breasts. With summer demand heating up, could wings be the next breakout star?
🌾 Grains look steady – for now. But with soy on the move and global tensions flaring, could the calm be short-lived?
🥓 Bellies are sizzling, and bacon’s about to get pricier. But with butts climbing too, how long can this heat last?
🧈 Butter’s rising fast, but cheese is sliding. What does it all mean for the dairy aisle in the weeks ahead?
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BEEF
Beef remains pricey and hard to find – and even with harvest back up, prices are still climbing. Are we finally nearing a cooldown, or will thin meats keep leading this market higher into July?
POULTRY
Chicken is still the go-to protein, but are we seeing the first signs of a shift? Breast prices dip slightly, tenders rise again, and wings climb – plus, a glimmer of good news on the avian flu front.
GRAINS
Grain markets are idling in neutral, with only slight bumps across corn, soy, and wheat. With strong supply and good weather, what would it take to finally shake these markets loose?
PORK
The pork market is sizzling – bellies are on a summer run and bacon’s about to get pricey. Will anything cool it down, or are we just getting started?
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🥩 BEEF
An already tight beef market just got tighter, and pricing is on the move. With thin meats leading the charge and grilling season in full swing, the question now is: how high will it go before the July 4th reset?
🍗 POULTRY
Wings are back on the rise, tenders are heating up, and breasts are finally cooling – but for how long? Just one new avian flu case – but it hit 1.3 million egg layers, pushing our 3-week total to 5 million birds lost.
🌾 GRAINS
Everyone’s bracing for a surge in the grain markets—but will it actually happen? With strong crops here and abroad and plenty of last year’s supply still around, the outlook might surprise you.
🥓 PORK
Pork prices are rising with the temps – bellies surged again, and butts and ribs are following. So what’s driving this climb, and will loins remain the sleeper deal of the summer?
🧈 DAIRY
Butter is back on the rise – hitting the highest prices since January – while barrels dip and blocks hold steady. Is this the start of a summer dairy rally or just a blip?
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🥩 BEEF – The market’s tight and getting tighter. Fewer cattle, expensive steaks, and grinds climbing week after week mean burgers are the summer go-to. With no slowdown in sight, it’s a buy now or pay more later situation.
🐔 POULTRY – Breasts are pausing after a steady climb, while tenders are still on the rise with strong demand. Wings are steady at the bottom, and chicken overall remains the budget-friendly protein pick. Another rough week for avian flu—fewer cases, but big impact.
🌾 GRAINS – Last week’s corn rally fizzled, with corn, soy, and wheat all slipping lower. Good crop conditions here and abroad plus shaky export demand are keeping this market in check.
🥓 PORK – Pork pricing continues its climb with bellies at $150, up from $143. Butts and ribs are on the rise as production slows seasonally, while loins remain the best value on the board.
🧈 DAIRY – The CME rally rolls on: barrel up 2, block up 3, and butter surging 14. Momentum’s still on dairy’s side with more upside likely.
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🐄 BEEF:Border closures, parasite threats, and tight supplies – yeah, it’s getting intense. Grinds and thin meats are climbing, middle meats are taking a breather. Memorial Day will tighten harvest even more. This is a buy now or cry later kind of market.
🐔 POULTRY:Chicken’s still climbing – breasts, tenders, all holding strong. Wings? Still the bargain. But a big bump in avian flu cases could shake things up.
🌾 GRAINS:Corn and wheat are on the rise as the market bets on stronger export demand. Soy lost some steam midweek but is still holding strong. Crop progress? Ahead of schedule and looking great.
🐖 PORK:Butts and ribs are heating up as production tightens and demand stays strong. Bellies dipped slightly to $143 but are likely to hold steady for now before summer moves them higher.
🧀 DAIRY:CME markets are climbing this week – Barrel up 6, Block up 7, Butter up 1. Looks like this upward trend could keep rolling for a few more weeks.
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BEEF 🥩
Record-breaking cattle prices, border closures, and tight supply are all putting heat on the beef market. Grinds are leading the charge, and summer grilling might come with sticker shock.
POULTRY 🐔
Chicken stays hot as demand rises and beef prices push more eyes to poultry. Wings still can’t catch a break, but breasts and tenders are on the move. Avian flu update: a few new cases, mostly turkeys.
GRAINS 🌾
Corn and soy planting are ahead of schedule and looking strong. Soy demand is picking up – could be setting the stage for a long-awaited lift. Wheat’s holding steady.
PORK 🐖
Bellies are creeping up but likely holding steady for a bit. Butts are building some momentum, while loins remain the sleeper deal in the protein world.
DAIRY 🧀
A quiet week with mixed moves on the board – barrel down, block and butter up just a touch. Bigger shift coming in June as barrel pricing gets phased out, but for now, expect a slow and steady climb.
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Beef remains tight — production ticks up slightly, but grilling season and shifting demand are pushing grinds higher. Some middle meats are cooling, others still heating up.
Poultry prices still split — tenders climb, breasts stay high, wings dip again. Production’s up and bird flu cases stayed low this week.
Grains drift down — corn and wheat slide, soy holds firm. Ethanol chatter could shake things up.
Pork cools off — bellies dip, loins still a solid value, and butts barely budge. Summer could bring the heat back.
Dairy bounce back — after two weeks down, prices climb again. Not a rally yet, but some upside remains.
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The beef market is catching its breath, but ground beef continues to climb as shoppers trade down from pricier cuts. Could this pause be the calm before another round of increases?
Chicken takes a breather this week, but there’s chatter about a possible summer sandwich surge. Plus, a surprisingly quiet week on the avian flu front during peak migration season.
Grain markets are stuck in a holding pattern, but talk of drought and rising oil prices could stir things up. Planting’s on track – for now.
Dairy prices continue to slide, with barrels, blocks, and butter all moving lower. A major change is coming in June with the USDA removing the 500# barrel from pricing formulas – something to keep an eye on.
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Beef production remains limited as packers focus on profit over volume, keeping middle meats inflated heading into summer. Chucks and rounds are softening, while ground beef is climbing as consumers trade down. Buy early – prices aren’t cooling off anytime soon.
In poultry, boneless skinless breasts and tenders continue to climb, while wings drop again, making them the value buy. Production is steady at 1% above last year, which will likely continue. No new avian flu reports this week – though USDA updates have stalled, likely due to reduced services, not reduced risk.
Grain markets are steady overall. Corn and wheat saw small declines, while soy is trending up with potential for more gains as palm oil tariffs push oil markets higher. Early planting is off to a strong start.
Pork production is slowing slightly. Bellies climbed to $143 and could keep rising into late spring, so stocking up isn’t a bad idea if you’ve got the freezer space. Butts and ribs are showing mild strength, while loins remain steady.
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We're back with some Spring Market Trends!
Beef production remains tight at 564K head, keeping prices strong, especially for ribeyes, tenderloins, and strip loins. With Cinco de Mayo approaching, thin meats are in high demand, and waiting to buy will likely cost you more.
Strong beef prices are driving up demand and prices for chicken breasts and tenders, while wings continue to drop and are now the best value. Despite peak migration season, avian flu impact was minimal this week, with 9 cases and 326K birds affected.
Pork bellies are holding steady at $135, but warmer weather and reduced production could push prices higher soon. Loins remain a great value, while ribs and butts are starting their seasonal climb.
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Beef: Tight inventories and rising demand continue to push the market higher, with last week’s production dropping to 560K head. Ribeyes are climbing, while rounds and chucks are still trending down. This is a buy-now market—waiting will likely cost you more in the coming weeks.
Poultry: Boneless skinless breasts and tenders are up again, while wing prices may have hit their floor. Production remains strong, running 2% ahead of last year. Avian flu reports were minimal, and shell egg prices continue to decline just in time for Easter.
Pork: Pork bellies dipped slightly to $135, possibly nearing the bottom of this market. With warmer weather, production typically slows, which could push prices higher. Loins remain a great value, butts are steady, and ribs are still looking good.
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Happy Spring!
Beef: Warmer weather has jump-started the beef market, with strip loins and ribeyes seeing a price surge. Production is inching up, but inventories remain tight, and thin meats like flanks, sirloin flaps, and skirts will rise through Cinco de Mayo. Outside of grinds moving lower, waiting to buy could mean paying more later.
Poultry: Chicken wings are dropping in price, while breasts continue to climb, and tenders remain steady. Production is up 3% from last year, but the hatch rate has dipped below the ideal 80%. Despite 11 new avian flu cases affecting 1.8 million birds – mostly egg layers – egg prices are still decreasing.
Grains: Grain markets are steady, with corn up slightly and soy and wheat holding firm. Concerns are rising over U.S. export fees, which could impact shipments to China and disrupt commodity exports.
Pork: Pork bellies dropped again to $137 from last week’s $145, with more potential downside ahead. Loins remain a great value, while butts are holding steady after recent price increases.
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Weekly beef harvests rose to 578K head from 566K last week. As the weather improves and grilling season picks up, harvests could approach 600K head. Middle meats, chucks, rounds, and grinds have likely bottomed out and are expected to climb, making now a good time to buy.
Shell egg prices have dropped – not because of better availability but due to reduced demand from high prices. Avian flu reports were low this week, with only 4,800 birds affected. In chicken, boneless skinless breasts and tenders are rising, wings are declining, and YTD chicken production remains 3% higher than last year.
Pork bellies dropped to $145 from last week’s $153, though further declines are uncertain. Butts are gaining strength, ribs remain a good value, and loins continue to be an affordable protein option – making it a great time to feature pork.
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Beef remains in the same pattern as previous months. Rounds, chucks, and grinds continue declining while middle meats trade sideways. There is some sign of life within thin meats, flank steak, and sirloin flaps.
Poultry production and demand continue strong. Breasts and tenders are up for next week. It was the best week we've had in months on the Avian Flu front. There were 9 new reports affecting 188k birds. Eggs have hit a peak with no increase in pricing for next week.
The grain market will remain unsettled while we wage a trade war.
Pork bellies are down this week and all pork segments continue to be a great protein value.
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Beef processors continue to keep production numbers down. Strip loins are moving higher while the other middle meats move lower. We've most likely seen the bottom on ribeyes and tenderloins. This pattern should hold steady in the next few weeks, waiting for warmer weather to help boost demand.
Chicken production continues running about 3% over last year. Wings are down for next week while breasts and tenders move higher. On the Avian Flu beat, 14 new reports since last week affecting 3.4 million birds. With Spring migration coming soon, the virus could be carried back up North along the East Coast which could make things worse.
In grains, the proposed tariffs could increase Canola oil from Canada's prices. Shifting from Canola to soy will push soy up as well. We'll keep an eye on what happens or doesn't happen.
Pork bellies turned around from last week's big drop, closing at $179. No need to buy unless you just need product. Other than bacon, pork is a good move.
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Beef harvest continues to decline which should slow price declines. The only area continuing to increase is strip loins. Other cuts should stay where they are until the weather breaks or demand picks up.
Avian Flu reports show 3.3 million birds were removed last week, with 3.1 million of those being egg-laying chickens. Egg pricing will continue to be high. Fresh chicken pricing is moving higher this week, but availability is good.
After the climb up, pork bellies have dropped to $136. Bacon is back on the buy side. All other segments are showing great value for the dead of winter.
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Happy Valentine's Day! 💘
Another difficult week for Avian Flu. Eggs will continue to rise until we have enough supply to meet demand, which could be a while.
In fresh chicken, demand is strong and pricing is up on all three segments. There is plenty of chicken available and it's all being sold.
Beef harvest is down to keep pricing from falling during a lower beef demand month. This should continue into March. February should continue to see declines with a possible rally in March.
Pork bellies are outperforming expectations. The rest of the pork market continues to be pretty steady, with butts moving up slightly, loins a great value, and ribs holding in there.
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Avian Flu continues to infect poultry flocks. 32 new cases were reported this week affecting 3.8 million birds. This is not a short term issue.
For fresh chicken, wings and tenders are steady and breasts are up. Chicken production continues strong and a good option in protein.
Beef production will be reduced for the next couple of weeks. This will keep the market tight on inventory and slow declines. Middle meats, tenderloins, and ribeyes have hit their bottom. Buy just what you need.
Pork bellies close up from last week. Buy what you need, its not a favorable market to do a big buy. Loins are still a great value.
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We'll start this week with a quick recap of Avian Flu, followed by the report for the current week, and how the flock can be rebuilt.
In poultry, wings and tenders are steady while breasts are up just a bit. Enjoy these prices on Super Bowl Sunday.
February is a soft month for beef demand and the market is due for some correction. Middle meats have finished their declines after the holidays. Strips and grinds are moving higher and chucks and rounds have peaked for now. Buy what you need and wait to see what the next move is.
Pork bellies moved higher this week. Buy what you need in bacon, the price is not attractive enough to stock up. Butts are down a few pennies, ribs look good, and loins, as always, are a great value.
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Chicken production continues strong up over last year by 2%. For the week we have steady markets on wings, boneless skinless breasts up just a bit and tenders staying steady for the week. The hatch rate is down to 78.9%, hatch rate being the percentage of eggs successfully hatched into baby chicks. Industry goal is 80% which we have not reached in about a year. I do expect we will see steady to higher prices on wings with football playoffs in full swing and March Madness on the horizon. On the Avian Flu front, it just doesn’t let up. 17 new cases reported affected 2.8 million birds, 2 million of those being egg layers. One article I read notes we are about 30 Million birds short to meet demand. This will not improve anytime soon.
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The beef market is remarkably strong starting the year. Ribeyes and tenderloins continue to decline while chucks, rounds, and grinds continue to increase. We should see this pattern for a couple more weeks.
Chicken production is up 3% over last year. Wings, breasts, and tenders are steady. This week, two million birds were removed from the food chain due to Avian Flu.
Pork bellies are down just a bit and won't be moving lower any time soon. Buy if you need, but no need to go crazy. Loins are a great value in protein.
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The beef market is very tight after the holidays and winter weather. We have seen steady increases in rounds, chucks, and grinds. Ribeyes and tenderloins are declining just a bit. If you need middle meats, wait to buy; with all other cuts, waiting will cost you money.
Chicken production has started the year off strong. Pricing on wings, breasts, and tenders is holding steady. Expect to see modest increases over the next few weeks. We had another brutal week for Avian Flu affecting 3.4 million birds, mostly egg-laying chickens.
Pork bellies are up this week and will likely continue to rise right into spring. Ribs and loins continue to be great values in protein.
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Last week's holiday-shortened production of 434K head and this week's reduced schedule has tightened beef inventories to start the year. While ribeyes and tenderloins continue to decline in value, rounds, chucks, and grinds are climbing, with forecasts pointing to higher beef prices and lower per capita consumption in 2025.
Chicken prices are steady, with 2024 production up 2% over 2023 and projections for stable production and slightly lower pricing in 2025. However, the avian flu outbreak remains severe, with over 17.7 million birds affected in the last 30 days and no signs of improvement.
Pork bellies dropped to $112, making it a good time to buy, with prices expected to rise through winter. 2025 forecasts show increased production due to lower feed costs and steady pricing, while boneless loins, ribs, and butts remain solid values.
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Beef availability could be tight for the next couple of weeks due to the holidays. If you need middle meats, wait until you need them to buy. If you need rounds, chucks, or grinds, buy now.
Chicken production is strong and demand is good. Wings are moving higher for next week, while randoms and tenders are up a few pennies. 23 new cases of Avian Flu were reported last week affecting 2.4 million birds.
Pork bellies are up just a little this week and this should continue all the way to Spring. Ribs and loins are a great value and butts are edging up just a bit.
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The Avian Flu is a major issue worldwide. There were 22 new reports this week affecting about 2 million birds in California and the central U.S. The UN released a report citing Avian Flu in 108 countries, affecting over 500 bird species and 70 species of mammals. Worldwide, 76 people have been diagnosed.
The chicken market is holding steady for the holiday week. Expect wings to go up during the height of football season.
The beef market is taking the expected turn, with middle meats, strips, and ribeyes moving lower and ground, chucks, and grinds moving higher. Buy what you need. The market is shifting.
The pork belly decline was pretty short. It's still a good time to buy, but we will probably see steady increases come 2025. Pork is still a great value.
Dairy markets have seen steady increases, which should continue into the new year.
Have a Merry Christmas! 🎄
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This was the worst week of reports for the Avian Flu in years. There were 21 new reports affecting 7.5 million birds.
Chicken wings moved up a few pennies, breasts are down a few, and tenders are steady. Production remains strong.
Beef production is holding strong for the holidays. Buy middle meats now, waiting will cost you money. Rounds, chucks, and grinds continue to be better values right now.
Grains are all a bit up this week, but still in a great position.
Pork bellies are down this week, with expectations that this will move higher come January. Buy bacon now! Butts, loins, and ribs are in good supply with moderate pricing.
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It's the holiday season, and beef continues the same trends of the last few weeks. Middle meats continue to increase and chucks, rounds, and grinds continue to decline. If you need middle meats, buy now. Mexico announced to the USDA that New World Screw Worm has been found in cattle, so exports to the US will temporarily cease while that is being dealt with.
The chicken market is steady and production is strong. It was another grim week for Avian Flu, with 1.2 million birds affected, including 50,000 ducks.
Grains continue to be in great shape.
Pork bellies are finally down where we like them. Buy now, because this market should move back higher by the end of the year. Butts, ribs, and loins continue to be great values. Why not feature pork this winter?
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One week until Thanksgiving! 🦃
Chicken pricing is steady, as it's not the featured protein this time of year. Production remains steady as well. There is grizzly news on the Avian Flu front. Hawaii has reported its first case along with 16 other new reports this week, all on the West Coast.
Beef production is down this week and the price pattern remains the same. Middle meats continue to move higher, while rounds, chucks, and grinds are lower. This should continue through January.
Pork bellies are down $2 this week and we should have more to go. Production is good and product is readily available. Loins are a particularly good value.
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This week in beef markets is a repeat of last week, this market is shaping up to be a classic holiday market. The middle meats, strips, ribeyes and tenderloins all moving up again next week. Don’t expect any relief on middle meat pricing until the end of the year. This continues the advice to buy now, waiting will cost you money. Also same as last week, moving lower chucks and rounds, briskets coming off a bit, and grinds continue lower. With turkey taking center stage the next two weeks we may not see as middle meats moving up as fast, but they won’t be coming down. Productions holding up pretty well, 619K head harvested last week, up from 615 the week prior, still with very large animals, running 38 lbs. heavier than last year.
Episode Sources:
- Swine Reports | Agricultural Marketing Service (usda.gov)
- Barchart.com | Commodity, Stock, and Currency Quotes, Charts, News & Analysis
- Cheese Reporter - Cheese Prices
- Publication | Broiler Hatchery | ID: gm80hv35d | USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (cornell.edu)
- Report-Estimated Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection (SJ_LS712) | MMN (usda.gov)
- Report-National Steer & Heifer Estimated Grading Percent (NW_LS196) | MMN (usda.gov)
- Market News - Dairy - Home (usda.gov)
- 2022–2024 Detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (usda.gov)
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The beef market continues to increase in middle meat pricing. Rounds, chucks, and grinds are finally moving lower. Better pricing is to come.
Chicken production continues strong and pricing has finally settled. This market may have more to give in the next few weeks. Six new cases of Avian Flu were reported, totaling 780k birds.
Pricing on grains is up, but nothing alarming.
Pork bellies closed down from last week and the rest of the pork complex is looking great.
The CME is down overall this week.
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Happy Halloween! 🎃
Beef production and demand are both strong. Middle meats, strips, ribeyes, and tenderloins will continue to have strong pricing, and with the additional production, other cuts should move lower.
Chicken production continues strong and pricing could move lower. Unfortunately, there is a lot of bad Avian Flu news.
All of our grains are looking great.
Pork bellies are volatile. This is not the time to buy bacon. The rest of the pork market is behaving much more normally.
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The beef complex is moving higher, almost every cut is moving higher next week, lead by middle meats, strong moves higher in ribeyes and tenderloins, strips moving higher as well. This is the time of year to buy early, waiting will cost you money. Beef production last week was 608K head up from the 586K the week prior. Chucks and rounds moving higher, grinds too. I think this will be a typical holiday season when comes to pricing, we will see increases right into mid December.
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The CME has mellowed out for much more normal weekly numbers.
Beef harvest is way down, pushing pricing higher overall. Most cuts are up for the week, so buy what you need now. Waiting will cost you money.
Avian Flu is back, affecting 2.7 million egg-laying chickens, and will stick around with the colder weather. Chicken production continues strong, and pricing for the next week is down overall. Look for a few more weeks of declines.
Pork bellies are up this week. Buy what you need now, there will be buying opportunities to come. The rest of the pork complex looks great. Availability is good and pricing is stable.
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The decline in dairy prices continues this week, through Thursday, barrel is down 15, block is down 11 and butter is down 5, since the recent peak in late mid-September barrel has dropped 72 cents, block is down 34 and butter has dropped 38. That is a pretty major reset in just three weeks. We may have another week or so before this market hits bottom but good value has returned to the dairy markets.
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The dairy market broke last week and finally moved lower. Buy what you need as values will be improving.
Beef production was slightly up last week. Middle meats are moving higher for the holiday season. Rounds and grinds are declining.
In poultry, chicken pricing is moving lower on all cuts. It's a great time to feature chicken.
The grain markets are a bit spooked by unrest in the Middle East. Everything is moving higher, but we will continue to monitor.
Pork is well supplied and pricing is steady to lower. As always, pork is a great protein value.
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The dairy market broke this week and all segments are down. This market is still upside down, but will hopefully correct in the next few weeks.
Beef demand is better than expected. Packers need to keep pricing as high as they can. Buy what you need, though other than middle meats, pricing is looking better.
Chicken production continues to climb. Pricing is moving lower on wings, random breasts, and tenders. No new Avian Flu reports this week.
Pork bellies closed up this week, but we should be at the end of the push higher. Pork production is strong, and pricing is good on loins, butts, and ribs. Menu pork!
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Through Thursday barrel pricing up 18 cents totaling 41 cents over the last month, and 34 cents over the block. That’s just crazy. Block traditionally trades about 10 over the barrel so this market is just upside down. Speaking of the block, we are actually down 2 for the week for some welcome relief from this recent run. Hopefully with will all top out soon.
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Labor Day Weekend shortened beef production last week. The market is moving lower overall with a few exceptions. Buy what you need, better prices are ahead.
Chicken production continues strong as chicken is the protein of choice for consumers. Wings are coming down just a bit, breasts have some strength, and tenders are in tight supply and expensive. We are at three weeks with no new Avian Flu reports.
Grains are looking good.
Pork bellies closed down a dollar from last week. Production is ramping up, so we should see good pricing continue.
The dairy market is up again and the current run isn't done.
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The beef market saw some welcome demand going into Labor Day Weekend. Now we should see some moves lower over the next couple of weeks. Buy what you need now, but it will be cheaper if you can wait. Strip loins are the buy in middle meats.
Chicken production continues strong and egg set numbers are up. Wings are moving lower again, while breasts and tenders are holding steady. Fall should shape up to be a good season for fresh chicken. No new cases of Avian Flu were reported.
Export demand in grains is seeing a 38% increase which is driving the price up slightly. We're keeping an eye on a new trade war between Canada and China.
Pork bellies closed slightly down from last week but should continue to move lower. Loins are moving slightly higher and butts are holding steady. As always, it's a good time to menu pork.
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The beef market is showing some strength, with ribeyes and tenderloins on the rise again for next week. Grinds have been leading the market, with chucks and rounds following suit. I’d be in a buy-just-what-you-need mode for next week as I do think things will adjust lower as we move into September.
Chicken production is up 3% over last year. Wings and tenders are holding steady and breasts are moving higher. No new cases of Avian Flu were reported this week.
Grain harvest has begun and everything is still looking great. Experts are wondering just how big this year's corn crop will be.
Pork bellies are down a dollar this week and I think there is more downside to come. Loins, butts, and hams are all great values this week. Production is heading higher coming out of summer, so continue to menu pork.
Dairy was a wild ride this week but settled with a small swing up.
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Restrained beef production is keeping the beef market slow-moving. Grinds, chucks, and rounds continue to demand premium prices. Ribeyes and tenderloins have hit bottom and are moving higher. Strip loins are the buy in middle meats.
Chicken production continues ahead of last year. Wing pricing is steady for next week, a big change after weeks of declining costs. Breasts and tenders are moving higher. Only one new case of Avian Flu was reported, affecting 880 birds.
Pork bellies closed lower after last week's surprise increase. This should continue as production will increase coming out of the summer. Ribs are moving lower and may be in "bargain territory" soon. Butts and loins are the buy in pork.
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The CME has been on a tear with barrel pricing reaching levels we haven't seen in over two years. This market will continue to move higher. Get in front of your demands.
Beef production numbers are down and demand is too. Pricing is softening on middle meats while grinds, chucks, and rounds hold the market up the best they can. We will be dealing with this higher-expense market for a while.
Some good news, there were no new Avian Flu cases for this week. In poultry, wings are down again while breasts are moving higher. Production is up, so inventory is good.
In pork, bellies are up this week after crashing last week. Butts and loins are a great value. Ribs are holding steady. The next move in pork should be lower.
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There is not much pushing the beef market to move higher at the moment. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding steady, while strip loins continue to lose value. Ribeyes and tenderloins have found some support. Buy what you need knowing this market is not heading higher for now.
Chicken wings are down again this week and breasts are moving higher. It's a good time to feature chicken. Only one new report of Avian Flu this week out of Florida.
Grains continue to be a positive for the food industry.
Pork bellies are down this week, after a very short-lived rally. Expect production to ramp up in September, but for now, things are pretty reasonable. Menu pork!
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Beef production continues to be restrained with the summer heat and low demand. Packers need to keep pricing up as much as they can. Strip loins are moving lower. Ribeyes and tenderloins have gone as low as they probably can for now.
Chicken production continues strong and wing prices are lower for next week, finally!
Corn closed below $4 for the first time in 6 months. This summer's crops are looking great.
The pork belly rally continues, closing this week at $153. Buy what you need to get you to September. There is plenty of pork available.
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The beef market continues to correct on middle meats, especially the strip loin. Ribeyes and tenderloins are coming down as well. Grinds continue to be the focus with chucks and rounds holding on pricing.
Poultry production is up 2% over last year, finally meeting the strong demand. If this continues, we may see the market ease up a bit. Four new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 301k birds.
Pork bellies are up again this week, with a few more weeks of increases expected. Butts, loins, and ribs are holding steady and continue to be a good buy.
We'll keep an eye on excessive heat and how that could reduce the milk output.
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This summer, it's all about ground beef. Strips, ribeyes, and tenderloins are seeing price declines, so delaying the buy on these cuts could save money. Rounds, chucks, and thin meats are headed to the grinder to support ground beef demand, so expect these prices to stay supported and availability to be reduced.
The poultry market is steady in wings, randoms, and tenders, making these a good protein value. Six new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 3.1 million birds. Five more humans have contracted the virus, with more being tested and isolated.
Pork bellies have finally moved up, after the long-promised rise. It's a good time to keep bacon in the freezer. Loins, butts, and ribs are all steady to moving lower. Pork remains a great protein buy.
Grains are all looking good and the CME is moving lower.
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Happy Independence Day!
Beef production continues to be restrained keeping supplies tight and buyers chasing product. Some middle meats are coming down, which might continue. Chucks, rounds, and ground beef are all moving higher.
Chicken pricing and demand are strong, especially in wings. Keep as many wings on hand as you can.
Bellies continue to be a good buy in pork. Loins and ribs are settling in at good numbers as well.
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Beef supply remains tight. Demand for middle meats was up, thanks to Father's Day. Pricing on most everything is up and firm, but this market should move lower after July 4th. Buy what you need now, waiting will cost money.
Poultry demand is still strong and demand is keeping things moving. Wing pricing continues to move up. Avian Flu is not done, 92k turkeys and one human dairy farm worker have been reported to have the virus.
The pork market is swinging wildly, but things look good price-wise.
We will be taking some time off and will see you back on July 5th! Happy Summer!
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Beef pricing is being driven higher by short supply. Expect pricing to continue to move higher. Buy what you need now, waiting will cost you money. Hopefully, we'll see the increases stop after the Fourth of July.
Poultry production can't keep up with demand. Pricing is moving higher on pretty much everything, except breasts being down a few pennies. Wings are the highest they've been in two years and demand will continue to push that price higher. Keep ahead of your needs in poultry.
Pork production continues strong and there is product to be purchased at good values. Pricing is steady to a bit higher on most items.
All good news on the grains front.
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Avian Flu just won't go away. This week, 4.2 million egg-laying chickens were lost to the virus. The Netherlands is testing two vaccines, so we'll see how that goes. This won't cause any shortages in chicken but will increase pricing. With demand remaining strong, this market should continue to move higher.
Beef production was up this week, but the market is still short and pricing is increasing. Waiting to buy will cost you money.
Bellies closed down from last week, but pork production is starting to slow as the weather gets warmer. This should move pricing higher for bellies. Other cuts are holding steady but we think the next move will be higher.
The dairy market finally broke with barrel, block, and butter all down.
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Beef production cutbacks were a bit stronger than I expected with 598K head harvested last week, well down from 622K the week prior. Last year saw 640K head harvested so production going into the summer season is being restrained to push prices higher. And they are pretty successful looking at the cutout. We have higher prices right rolling in as tightened supplies have done their job and will continue for at least the next several weeks. This is a time when you need to buy what you need now, waiting will cost you money. The beef complex is moving higher, pretty much across the board. Packers have signaled they plan to continue with reduced harvest to keep the market up. We’ll see how long this continues but right now it is effectively moving prices higher.
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Beef production cutbacks are off to a slow start. The market is steady to lower. Look for some deals if you have the customer demand to move product.
Poultry demand is strong and production can barely keep up. Pricing is up on all parts and there is more upside to come.
Planting is on track for grains and everything seems to be in good shape.
Pork bellies are up this week but still in a good buy position. Pork production is strong and inventories are good.
The CME is higher again for the 7th week in a row and it's not slowing down.
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Beef pricing seems to remain the same despite the recent ramped-up production. The market feels flat with demand and pricing is flat to lower. We're heading into Memorial Day with no momentum in the beef market.
Chicken demand is still strong and production is up from last year. Pricing is up overall. This could be an expensive summer for chicken.
There is plenty of pork product and demand is okay. This is keeping prices pretty steady.
The CME does not seem to be slowing down on price increases.
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Beef production was slightly down this week but still in good production numbers. Hopefully, with nice weather, we will see demand pick up. It's a good time to buy and feature beef now before pricing moves higher this summer.
Chicken pricing is steady and demand is strong. There were three new cases of Avian Flu affecting 28,000 birds.
Pork bellies are down this week, but pricing has been jumping around. Pork continues with strong production and availability is good.
The grain markets continue in good shape. The dairy market continues higher.
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Beef production hit numbers we haven't seen in months. This is helping to soften pricing on almost everything except thin meats and grinds.
Chicken pricing is steady and demand is still strong. Only one new case of Avian Flu was reported affecting 104,000 turkeys.
Corn pricing is up and planting continues with good weather keeping things steady. Soy should stay steady to low; wheat is a great value, moving lower this week.
Bellies closed lower this week, butts are staying steady, and loins are inching up. Production numbers are strong.
The CME is moving higher on all fronts.
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The USDA has updated production numbers in beef harvesting for the year. This will be good news for everyone if the production lines get moving. For now, keep product on hand and continue to buy what you need, there may be a bargain or two out there.
Poultry production and demand continue strong, but this week pricing is pausing. Increases are coming. Avian Flu is not going away. April has been the biggest loss month since last winter and we have one more week to go.
There is not much movement in pork pricing this week, but we could see that change this summer. Pork is still a great protein option.
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Beef production continues to be restrained, but cattle are growing in physical size, thanks to cheap corn. Pricing has taken a pause this week with increases coming soon.
Chicken production and demand continue strong. Pricing is moving higher on all products except breasts, which are steady. No new cases of Avian Flu were reported in birds, but two more states have reported the illness in dairy cows.
Pork pricing continues to be favorable for now. Look for a big move higher in bellies this summer. In the meantime, pork is a great protein value.
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Avian flu has spread to dairy cows in six states. Affected milk is being destroyed, but pasteurized milk remains safe for consumption. Three new cases of Avian Flu in chickens were reported, totaling 3.8 million birds. This shouldn't significantly impact availability or pricing, but chicken prices continue to rise weekly.
Beef production is still down and demand is creeping up, putting pressure on the supply chain. Prices on skirts, sirloin flaps, and flanks will keep climbing, especially with Cinco de Mayo coming up. It might be smart to stock up for a few weeks.
Planting begins this month for corn and soybeans. Corn closed yesterday at $4.24. Soy continues to look good. Wheat continues to be well-supplied and market soft.
Overall pork production is ahead of last year and demand is holding up pretty well. Bellies closed yesterday at $120, so we're still waiting for that spring increase to start.
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Chicken pricing is moving up again for next week, wings, boneless breasts and tenders are all getting more money. Production is increasing weekly, but demand is still strong, and everything is getting sold. Hatch rate is down again for last week to 78.9%. Anything under 80% is a concern but we are seeing lower hatch rates for several weeks now. Hoping this turns around quickly. On the avian flu front, the good news is only one new report affecting 50 birds. The bad news is the mysterious illness affecting Texas cattle has been identified as Avian Flu, now crossed species in Texas.
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Beef harvest last week was down to 583K head, below last week’s 599K and last year, we were at 631K head for the week. This curtailed production is continuing, some major packers are only running four days a week making this market tight. Expect another week below 600K head this week. The pull back is having the desired affect for the beef producers. Product is short and pricing is moving up quickly. There will be a bit of sticker shock next week with pricing on strip loins, top rounds, sirloin flap and skirt steaks, all taking fairly substantial increases for next week.
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Last week's beef harvest dropped to 583K, continuing a trend of reduced production with some major packers operating only four days a week. Expect another week below 600K. Shortages are driving prices up, particularly for strip loins, top rounds, sirloin flap, and skirt steaks, while brisket prices are expected to decrease after St. Patrick's Day.
Chicken production is up from last year, but demand remains high with no signs of decline. Prices for chicken products, including wings, breasts, and tenderloins, are expected to increase next week. Concerns arise over a hatch rate below 80% in the past month, while three new cases of Avian Flu affecting 31,500 birds, mostly turkeys, serve as a reminder of ongoing risks.
Bellies closed slightly higher at $124 but with plentiful supply, a significant market increase seems unlikely. Butts stabilized after export-driven price hikes, while sold-out hams due to an early Easter may lead to a market decrease, leaving loins as the best protein value.
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Beef harvest continues to stay steady, but well below average compared to last year. Top rounds are moving up quickly while middle meats, loins, and ribeyes continue a steady pattern moving up. Buy what you need.
The corn surplus is expected to support new biojet fuel technology, so we are not seeing it get below $4 as expected. Soy is holding steady and wheat continues the same story from the last couple of weeks.
Poultry pricing stayed pretty steady but should be moving up next week on all chicken products. Demand is strong. Only two new reports of Avian Flu were reported affecting 160 birds.
Bellies moved slightly higher, but we may see this market hang around the $120-125 range for a while. Butts are moving up, loins are a great value, and ribs continue to move higher.
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Grain prices are decreasing, which is good news for food processors and animal production.
Beef production is being reduced, which has caused prices to rise for most items except for ground beef, which is getting cheaper.
Chicken production is strong, and prices are unlikely to change in the coming weeks. However, eleven new cases of Avian Flu were reported, which affected 92k birds, mostly turkeys.
Finally, pork production is abundant, and there is plenty of product available. Of course, loins continue to be a great value.
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Beef harvest is down for another week with expectations of going below 600k next week. Packers are lowering the harvest to keep inventories tight and push prices up. Next week should be a good buy opportunity. The next move will be higher prices for pretty much every item.
Chicken pricing continues on the current trend upward. Only two new cases of Avian Flu were reported, affecting 21,000 turkeys.
Corn is headed towards breaking that below $4 barrier. Soy is bouncing up and down. Wheat is moving lower.
Bellies closed just up from last week, but we still have a little more time before the big move higher starts. Butts are gaining more support, loins are still a great value, and ribs could actually get pricy moving into the summer.
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Beef demand is not keeping up with beef production. Packers have more product than they can move without discounting and they have no interest in discounting. Buy what you need, there isn't much risk to the upside.
Wings continue to increase even after the Super Bowl. Breasts and tenderloins move higher as well. Demand is strong for fresh poultry and production is about on par with last year which will keep pushing chicken higher. Three new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 32,500 turkeys.
Corn closed at $4.19, the lowest it's been in four years. Grains are a bright spot in commodities.
Bellies closed at $1 lower than last week. This market shouldn't move much lower, so buy what you need. Loins are a great value, butts are steady, and ribs are showing great strength.
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Beef demand is not strong. Harvest was up this week, but we shouldn't expect that to last. Buy what you need, you may find a bargain or two.
Chicken wings will hit their peak on Sunday, so pricing will move higher next week. Breasts are holding steady and tenders are moving up. Three new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 102,000 birds.
Corn is down again this week, which is great news. Soy is bouncing up and down and wheat is holding steady. Grains are in a favorable condition.
Bellies are down from last week. There should be a buy window soon, but it will only last a week or two before they start their seasonal move upward. Butts are lower, loins are steady, and ribs are showing some support. Pork production is strong. Always a great time to menu pork.
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Starting with grains this week, corn is moving lower again and it's probably not done. This is good for everyone (except corn farmers). Soy and wheat are in the same mode.
Beef harvest is holding up pretty well, but retailers are not interested in beef at the elevated prices pushed by recent storms. Prices are moving lower on most items, except ground beef, which should continue through February. Still a buy-what-you-need strategy.
Only one new Avian Flu case was reported last week. In poultry, wings are moving higher, tenders are moving up, and breasts are holding steady. Production is about the same as last year and demand is good.
Bellies showed no change this week. They should decline into February. Loins are the best value in protein. Pork production is recovering nicely.
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Beef production recovered nicely after the winter storm disruptions. Packers pushed pricing up pretty quickly, but this doesn't seem sustainable into February. The quick rise prices should move lower towards the end of the month, with middle meats being an exception as they have already bottomed out.
Chicken pricing is moving higher as expected. Production is about 1% higher over last year and the demand is on par. Five new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 313,000 birds.
Bellies are on the rise, but we're hoping to see a small buy window in February before prices move even higher this summer. Butts, ribs, and loins are all still a great value. Pork production rebounded nicely last week.
Grains are in good shape and the CME had a quiet week.
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Multiple storms in the Midwest have turned the beef market a little more quickly than expected. The decline in the middle meats should last one more week. We'll most likely see increases in the last week of January. Next week is the time to buy middle meats, everything else is buy it now, it will cost more money later.
Chicken is up again for next week with wings, random breasts, and tenders all moving higher right up to the Super Bowl, but this year will be "reasonable" compared to previous years. On the Avian Flu front, it was a pretty quiet week. Let's hope for more continued good news there.
Bellies are up from last week, so if you were waiting to buy bacon in a declining market, you just missed it. Pricing will most likely continue to increase, but butts and loins are still a great value in pork.
Corn and soy harvests yielded more than we assumed. This has pushed pricing down. This will be an interesting market to watch this year.
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Bad winter weather in the Midwest had big effects on beef production. Two major packers idled plants completely and several were only running one shift. This will tighten availability. If you need middle meats, buy what you need. Other cuts will be better to buy sooner than later.
Chicken production was up slightly. Wings, breasts, and tenders are moving higher but chicken is still a good protein buy. Ten new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 1.6 million birds.
Pork bellies closed over $100 this week. With production slightly up and headcount slightly down, plenty of pork is still available at a good value.
There is plenty of corn for food, feed, and fuel. Soy demand is lacking, driving prices lower.
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Happy New Year!
In the beef market, we are seeing the seasonal market correction for ribeyes and tenderloins begin. Buy what you need weekly knowing that next week will probably be a better value. Chucks, rounds, and grinds are moving in the exact opposite way.
Chicken pricing is moving higher this week with an expectation that this will continue. Only two new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 1,400 birds.
Bellies are moving higher and this will probably continue through winter, but pork is still a great value.
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The beef market is moving like it is the end of the year. Those high flying ribeye's and tenderloins will start to move lower come the first of the year and continue down typically to the end of January, maybe into early February.
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Beef harvest was up from last week. Middle meats, ribeyes, and tenderloins should see their peak prices before moving lower after the New Year. If you need rounds, chucks, and grinds, buy now.
21 new Avian Flu cases have been reported affecting 2.3 million birds. Pricing in chicken is moving up, but is nothing to be concerned about.
Surprising all of us, bellies closed lower than last week at just $80. The pork complex continues to show great value.
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Beef harvest continues strong through the peak holiday season. Middle meats are moving up again for next week which hopefully means there is nowhere to go but down from here. The value in beef is in rounds, chucks, and grinds.
We are still seeing new Avian Flu reports with 11 new cases this week affecting over 3 million birds. In chicken, party wings are moving lower while breasts and tenders are holding steady. Chicken is a good protein value.
Pork bellies closed at $83, down just a bit from last week. We may be at the end of this cheap belly cycle.
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We are in peak holiday season for beef pricing. Harvest was up this week but demand seems to have adjusted to the lower harvest numbers. Hopefully we'll see the market make some big changes after a couple of weeks. There were 13 new Avian Flu reports over the last week affecting 836,000 birds. None of this is good news as chicken flocks and turkeys are taking big hits. Pricing on chicken continues steady and chicken remains a good value in protein despite this unfortunate news. In pork, now is the time to buy bacon. Everything is priced nicely for pork to be a featured value protein. In grains, everything is looking good with good crops coming from the US, Europe, and Australia. In dairy, we can expect pricing to move up as the milk supply tightens.
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In the past two weeks, the Avian Flu removed close to 5 million birds from the food supply. Cases have been confirmed in 26 states so far. We're keeping an eye on the situation. Chicken production and pricing remain similar to past weeks. Middle meats are creeping higher in beef, and rounds, chucks, and grounds are coming down. Briskets have shot up as well. If you need beef, buy now. Pork bellies continue in bargain mode. Corn harvest is done with a record crop and pricing moving lower. Soy is holding steady and wheat has moved a little lower.
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Beef production is down again from last week and last year. Middle meats are moving up a bit, while the others are due for some lower pricing. Bellies closed at $98 and will most likely stay in this area. Avian Flu has new numbers this week, and they aren't good. Not a trend we want to see. Pricing on chicken is mostly holding steady. Grain harvest is still looking good with exports picking up in corn. Dairy is once again flipping on us. Product is available, but pricing should reduce to spur export demand. Have a great Thanksgiving holiday!
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The beef holiday items are all moving higher for next week. We’ve been saying it for months but the lower beef production will continue into next year. If you are in the market for beef, buy now, next week will cost you more money. Pork production continues strong and pricing is attractive. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing continues to move lower. Corn and soy received huge reports from the USDA this week which could continue to drive prices down. Good news on the grain front. Dairy markets are all moving lower with more downside to come, hopefully.
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Beef holiday pricing is in full swing and that's not changing any time soon. This will move up again next week. Buy now, waiting will cost you. There is plenty of pork product available with pricing moving lower on most cuts. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing on party wings, breasts, and tenders is also moving down. The surge in Avian Flu continues with new cases reported from Alaska to Alabama. Corn is down this week, soy is moving higher, and wheat is slightly lower. Cream availability is improving and the CME is responding with lower prices.
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Corn closed at $4.81 a second week below $5, Harvest is 59% complete. Export demand is less than robust, I think we may have finally gotten away from $6 corn, at least for the foreseeable future. This is excellent news for the whole protein industry built around cheap corn. Soy harvest is 76% done and though there is some uncertainty on international demand, pricing is pretty steady at least right now. Wheat is surprisingly moving a bit lower, nothing too extreme but with holiday baking season at hand, I’m a bit surprised.
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Let’s get to the bad news first. Avian Flu is back. Since last week, 10 new cases were reported, totally 189K birds affected. That’s over half a million birds the last two weeks lost from the food supply, most of which were Turkeys.
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Avian Flu is back this week with five new cases reported, totaling a loss of 379,000 birds. Hopefully, this will be isolated and short-lived, but we’ll keep watching. Chicken production is down another 3% making the supply tighter, especially in wings. The dairy markets are finally cooling off. Beef harvest was up this week but is still much lower than last year. Expect prices to start moving higher. If buying, sooner is better than later. With pork production up, we are seeing pricing move lower on almost everything. There is good supply and good demand.
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Butter has set a record high every day since last Wednesday. In beef, we are still seeing tight supplies and restrained production. Ground beef is moving higher but everything is else is moving up in preparation for the holidays. We are seeing lower production in poultry as well. Breasts and tenders are moving lower and wings are holding on to recent gains. On the avian flu front, one new case was reported affecting 70 birds in Idaho. Pork production picks up this time of year and is really putting a damper on any market moves higher. Ribs and loins represent very good values.
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Through Thursday's close butter is up 34 and I expect Friday will have continued increase. The cheese markets are doing the exact opposite, barrel is down 10 and block is down 7. What I see is tightness in cream availability, especially in the Midwest where most butter plants are located. I still don’t see this as a strong enough reason for butter to shoot up like this. When markets do this, it is often wise to sit back and evaluate instead of jumping in. Definitely worth watching.
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A mixed bag in chickens this week as wings continue their assent higher each week. Random breasts did come off as expected and are moving lower and tenders are holding steady for the week. I’m finally seeing lower production numbers around 2% below last year, is 2% that big a deal? In chicken yes, that represents about 5 million birds NOT being produced. I think we will see continued tight supply on wings as prices continue to rise. Ugh… avian flu is back even if only one case, it is there to remind us it has not gone away. One new case reported in New Jersey affecting 600 birds.
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Bellies closed yesterday at $124 down from last week $129. The pricing on bellies has a "buy sign" though I don’t think we will see a run up anytime soon. Butts, loins, and ribs are all moving a little higher, but nothing to be concerned with. Hams will be in demand as packers procure their needs for the holidays.
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Beef production has been restricted for months now and this doesn't seem like it's going to change. The traditional holiday spread seems to be starting early this year. Strip loins are the bargain on middle meats. Poultry pricing continues higher as well, with a potential for more upside on wings. One week of corn below $5 was all we got. Large crop expectations in grains should keep these markets in check. Pork belly pricing is up from last week, but still reasonable. If you need bacon, buy it. Butts, loins, and hams make moves higher as well.
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Year to date, beef harvest is down 4.2% and this will continue into 2024. It's a tough time to buy beef with prices moving up in almost every category. Poultry prices continue higher again for next week as well. We've almost gone a month with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Corn has finally fallen, which is good news for everyone in the food business. Pork bellies closed at $114 this week which is $52 down from last week. It's buying time again. Butts, loins, and ribs are all great options too. Pork is a good buy in protein. The dairy market is back at it with a few moves higher.
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Restricted beef production levels are having the desired effect. Pretty much every category is moving higher. Hopefully, after Labor Day, this market will settle down. Buy what you need now, next week will be more money. Chicken pricing is up on wings, breasts, and tenders. Chicken is still a good protein value, but buy what you need now. This market will continue to go up. For some good news, there are no new Avian Flu cases to report. Grains are moving down this week and things are looking okay there. Pork bellies continue to drop with better pricing on the way. Butts and ribs are still a great value.
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Beef processors continue to keep the market tight with another light production week, 603K head harvested last week down from the previous weeks already low 613K. This continues to keep product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. Ribeyes, chucks and rounds are all moving higher. Loins and ground beef trading sideways but I do think they will see appreciation over the next couple weeks. Once we get passed the Labor Day holiday if we get more cattle on the market we could see a couple weeks buying opportunity before the positioning for the holiday. I think this is a buy what you need to get passed Labor Day, depending on the cut, you might find a deal out there.
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Beef production continued with another light week which keeps product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. We could see a change in this after Labor Day. It's a buy-what-you-need situation, but you may find a deal out there. For chicken, it's another week of pricing moving higher on wings, breasts, and tenders. Even with increased prices, chicken is still a great protein value. No new Avian Flu cases were reported this week. It was a good week for grain markets, as all are moving lower. Pork bellies closed lower this week and it looks like we have a good bit more movement lower. Wait to buy bacon if you can.
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Poultry prices continue to rise on all cuts and categories in the chicken world. Demand for fresh chicken is increasing as well. There is still value here but look for continued increases in chicken. For the third week in a row, one new Avian Flu report from the same county in NY affects 800 birds. Beef production continues lower keeping any price reductions from happening during this season of weak demand. Better weather forecasts and rain have helped corn to close lower this week. Soy has stabilized and wheat is moving down. Pretty much the whole pork complex is moving lower and will probably continue that way for the next few weeks. Buy what you need, but waiting should save you money. Dairy has finally stopped the hard and fast increases from the last few weeks.
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Hot, summer weather is slowing down production on beef and chicken, making prices inch higher in most circumstances. There are not many bargains to be had in beef, but waiting to buy will cost you money. Chicken is still a good value in protein, but we are seeing a steady move higher. Another Avian Flu report was made in the same county in New York with 490 more birds infected. Still the only new cases since May, but something to keep an eye on. Corn is down from last week, and soy is finally seeing an end to the several weeks' climb. Wheat is holding steady. Pork bellies closed just a dollar up from last week at $215. Butts continue to decline, and loins and ribs continue to offer real value. Dairy markets are up again this week, but are hopefully losing a bit of steam.
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Tight supplies and inflated prices in beef will be an ongoing issue. For next week, a few lower middle meats, again not big moves but moving lower. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding up. One more week of buy what you need, but next week should see better pricing. Chicken remains the value in proteins., with strong production numbers and prices just inching up. Sadly, on Tuesday we had the first reported Avian Flu case since May 18th. 660 birds in New York. There is a lot of action in grains with tension in Russia and Ukraine, drought concerns, and prices on everything moving higher. Bellies closed at $214, butts continue lower, and ribs and loins are a great deal. Dairy markets are moving up like a rocket.
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The beef market continues to slowly move lower on middle meats, thin meats, chucks, and rounds. Ground beef holds steady. Buy product if you need it, but waiting a week may save you money. Chicken production continues strong and prices are moving higher in wings and breasts. Tenders are moving a little lower. We have gone over two months with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Grains are seeing a ton of action with prices going up on everything. Pork bellies are up $35 from last week. Butts are moving lower and loins are just a little higher but still a great value. The dairy market continues to rise with more upside to come.
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Pork… here is the hot market. Bellies closed yesterday at $158 up from $141 last week. Bacon producers are raising prices daily. I thought $160-$170 might be a peak come August but I may be undervaluing this market. Getting bacon bought is not a bad idea. On the butt side we seem to have peaked for the current market and moving lower but again, temper any expectations for lower costs. It will be lower but only so much. Loins as always ,that is the value and ribs in the height of the season continue a good value.
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Chicken continues to be the protein value. No changes for next week in wings, boneless skinless random breasts or tenders. Production numbers continue strong so there is product available and at good values. With production numbers continuing this strong, I don’t see much change to this pattern right now. A quick note that we continue with no new Avian Flu reports. All good news on the poultry front.
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Pork is recovering from the crazy few weeks prior to Prop 12 implementation which is now pushed to January 1. I mentioned Massachusetts and their new regulations which go into effect July 12. A quirk or feature of the MA rules is no pork can be in transit through the state that doesn’t meet there new regulations, so product destined north of MA will have to route around the state. Looking at actual pork and not the politics around it, bellies closed at $105, up from last week’s $99 so I do think we will see a steady increase through summer. Butts continue to trade at a premium with some tight supplies. Loins continue to be a great value in pork.
https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/news/what-timeline-massachusetts-question-3
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California Prop 12, the animal welfare bill, was deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court on May 11 of this year. The new law has an effective date of July 1. California processors, retailers, foodservice, and anyone dealing with pork have been buying anything they can get their hands on and getting it shipped prior to the July 1 deadline. This has tossed the whole industry upside down, prices have shot up quickly, product availability is all of the sudden tight, and just to beat the July 1 deadline. However yesterday, the judge in charge of this case delayed implementation until Jan 1, 2024. So what’s all this going to mean?
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Last week the overall beef market took a sharp turn higher and this week is more of the same. Every cut of beef is moving higher again this week. Post holiday harvest was a pretty modest 615K head which is up from the holiday week of 573K head but these restricted harvest numbers continue to pressure the market higher. Middle meats are up strong, rounds, chucks, thin meats especially continue to demand premium dollars. I think we have to get passed the July 4th holiday and this market will come off, but that is a few weeks away. Same advice as last week, if you need it, buy it. Waiting will cost you more money.
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The end of last week beef pricing started heating up and this week it is not stopping. Demand is finally pushing these reduced harvest numbers and in turn pushing pricing higher. On the holiday shortened week the beef harvest was 573K head, down from the prior week’s 625K head. You will see increasing prices across the board on beef products. Especially affected are the thin meats, briskets, flank, sirloin flap, but you will see increases in rounds, chucks, grinds, pretty much everything is pushing higher. Until production numbers increase (not likely) or buyers reduce demand I don’t think we have a quick down turn anytime soon. This is a market where you buy it now because next week, it will be more money.
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Beef harvest declined to 625K head last week, compared to the prior week’s 642K head. Year-to-date production is running about 5% below last year making a pretty tight market for available product. It's a good time to buy what you need but I would not be extending beyond that. Production continues pretty strong keeping chicken well supplied. We should see this pattern continue. As for Avian Flu – I have nothing to say other than great news of another week with no new cases reported. Corn closed at $6.44 up from last week’s $6.37. Soy Oil is moving up just a bit, we had our lowest market in over three years last week, so moving up just a bit. Wheat markets continue in turmoil, up down, and all around. Pork bellies closed at $77, up from last week's $72. Bacon continues to be a great buy. Butts are continuing higher with a strong export demand push. And finally, barrel has no change, block is down 12 – seeing our lowest block price since May of 2020 – and butter is up 2.
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We got one week of corn under $5 last week, that did not last long, corn closed at $6.37 and I don’t know why. There have been canceled export orders from not only China, but now Mexico as well. Mexico has added Brazil to their supplier list. The current crop is 81 % planted and all indications are for a bumper crop. We will begin the silly season where the market will change just on a weather forecast. Until we can move corn lower, we will continue with inflated protein markets. Looking at soy oil and we are about as low as I’ve seen in several years. I’m hearing we may be about as low as we will go for a bit, I’m I’m holding on for a bit more to the downside. Wheat had a wild week up and down but settled about where it started. Flour pricing is starting to look fairly attractive, that has been a while coming.
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Corn closed at $5.89. Down from last week's $6.21, and the first time under $6 since November 2021. China canceled several more loads of corn contributing to the decline. Additionally, china is buying corn for the first time from South Africa. An expected big crop this year, reduced demand for export and we could be seeing much lower corn prices once we get into new crop. The new crop is 65% planted now and moving along. Things are looking good on the corn front. Soy oil is moving lower again, and these commodities could really help reduce overall inflation as they are an essential ingredient in so many products. USR AND UKR agreed to a 60 day extension on safe passage in the black sea. These moved wheat a bit lower too. Overall the grain category is supporting lower costs, that’s all good news.
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Reduced harvest numbers continue for beef, about 5% lower than last year. Beef pricing is elevated and will most likely stay that way. Wings will be the item for Memorial Day as they continue lower. Tenders remain the premium item in chicken. Only one new case reported this week for Avian Flu. Pork bellies are down $10 from last week and production is up. Smoked or grilled pork is also a great option for Memorial Day.
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Chicken is interesting, a little of everything up down and in between. Tenders are still running a bit short and moving up again, boneless skinless random breasts are holding steady though I would not be surprised if the next move in breast meat is higher. Wings on the other hand, still moving lower. This week’s avian flu update and I have nothing to say. NO new cases reported for the last week. Best news in a long while.
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Last week’s harvest of 622K was up from the prior week of 613K but still well below what we would expect this time of year and a good 25 -30K head below last year. There is some consensus we will stay in this reduced production cycle well into summer which may make beef a luxury choice. The continuing “bargain” pricing in chicken and pork will be a drag on these moves higher, but only so much. Looking at next week, with pretty moderate demand, all segments are moving higher, middle meats, chuck, grinds especially, so I’m back to the advice if you need it buy it, waiting will cost you money. Beef is shaping up to an expensive spring and summer buy.
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Chicken Tenders are leading the way higher, but it seems they are doing this all alone. Boneless Skinless random breasts and wings are both moving lower again. Production continues strong about the same pace we’ve seen for weeks now so product is readily available. Chicken continues to be a good value . Now onto avian flu and two good weeks are about all we could stand. This week we’ve seen our first large turkey operations report new cases. One in each North and South Dakota. For the week 8 new cases affecting 136K birds, moving our total birds lost to Avian Flu to 58.8 million head. Hopefully an event, not a trend.
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So we’ve been looking at this beef market expecting a spring increase based on better demand with spring. Retail demand has been pretty tepid, so beef producers are going to force this market higher by restraining supply. We’ve seen this over the past few weeks but they are serious now. Last week was a total of 603K head harvested, down from the previous week’s 651K head. This week is shaping up to be very close to the 603K head number which has got some buyers a bit uneasy and packers are pushing up prices quickly. Last week was the time to buy, this week will be better than buying next week. All segments of the beef complex are moving higher. Thin meats like flank and skirt and leading the way as buyers want to cover their needs for Cinco de Mayo. If you need beef, buy now, don’t wait. Waiting will cost you money.
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If you got the Legally Blonde reference, we appreciate you.
With the markets closed for Good Friday these are the final numbers for the week and it is all down. Barrel is down 14, block is down 16 and butter is down 5. Spring Flush seems to be having an affect with additional milk coming to market. To define spring flush, happy cows produce more milk, and spring flush is when the dairy cow diet is moved from stored grain to grazing pastures. Happy cows.
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Pork Belly closed yesterday at $91 up from last week at $82. Still, anything under $100 is bargain time. Same burdensome inventory is keeping pork a real protein value, whether it is bacon, loins, ribs, the only exception continue to be butts which continue to enjoy strong export demand. As usual I recommend to menu pork.
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Beef harvest is holding pretty steady at 631K head down just a bit from last week at 634K head. Even with these restricted production numbers, pricing is pretty restrained as there is not big demand pushing this product out. I still think the overall tone of this market is moving higher but I think we have a week or two before the weather turns and we get some really nice weather to get people out and about and that will push up demand. Until then, this is pretty steady for at least the next week. The popular items for Cinco de Mayo continue to be leading the market a bit higher, otherwise we are steady to some give back in chucks and rounds. Beef would be a good buy now.
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Beef production is creeping up as we approach Spring. Middle meats are holding steady, but the next move will most likely be higher. Chucks and rounds should move lower, while thin cuts will steadily increase. Beef is not the bargain buy right now, but it should hold steady for a week or so. Chicken wings are on the decline again. Strong production numbers continue. Breasts and tenders continue to slowly rise. Nine new cases of Avian flu were reported last week affecting 19,000 birds, which brings the total to 58.6 million. Corn is up from last week, soy oil inched lower, and flour is steady to lower. Pork is up from last week just a bit, but pricing is still really favorable.
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Beef harvest picks up from last week totally 629K head up from last week to 618K head. These production numbers are keeping the market tight. Though March is not stacking with strong demand as of yet and the recent rally we’ve seen with both bad weather and reduced production seems to have lost a bit of steam. I’ve not seen anything moving lower but the steady increases over the past couple weeks are cooling off. The last couple weeks my advice was buy now, waiting will cost you money. Though I do think the overall trend continues higher I don’t see the urgency this week to buy now. Take measure what you need or want and I think a cool head can make a good buying decision. Once the weather breaks and demand moves higher I would change that philosophy but for night now, I think the market has a bit of a pause.
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Beef harvest dropped again last week to 618K compared to 627K the week prior. Beef processors or determined to keep this market tight and with production numbers like these they are being successful. I expect we will see these reduced harvest numbers right to the end of March. This is not a panic situation but as I said last week, buy beef now, waiting until next week will cost you more money. Every segment of the beef complex is moving higher, thin meats leading the way. Middle meats especially strip loins are on the way up, ribeyes and tenderloins up too though increases a bit more modest. Ground beef is up and I do think we will see that continue steadily over the next few weeks.
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Beef production is dropping with intentions to tighten the supply. The winter storm moving through the Midwest has prices moving up daily. Don't overreact, but buy what you need now. Chicken prices seem to have stalled for a moment and production numbers are still very strong making chicken a great value. Not much is happening in corn, soy oil is moving up a bit, and there isn't much going on with wheat. Pork pricing is moving higher slightly, but pork remains a great value. Feature pork! Dairy is looking good, but spring could bring a new push in pricing.
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This week, 7 new reports affecting 17K birds putting the total birds so far at 58.4 million. There is continued discussion and opinion that avian flu will continue to affect domestic poultry through 2023 and could continue to be around every year. With the virus surviving the heat of summer and freezing winter it looks like this virus is not fading away. Those rosy outlooks for the second half of 2023? Yeah, I’m not buying. Now looking at chicken and the slow increase continues with pricing up on wings and randoms. Again, this market was so low we are just getting back to some normalcy in chicken pricing. Plenty of production and demand is good. Still makes chicken a great value.
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February is the lowest demand month for beef and usually we will see some of the lowest prices of the year. Harvest last week was a robust 659K head, up from the prior week of 646K head. This seems to be a bit strong production for February, I don’t see the demand supporting this. Something to certainly watch the next couple weeks. Ribeyes and Tenderloins are doing their seasonal reductions and I think we might push this another week or two, especially if production numbers keep this high. Chuck, rounds, grinds all seem to be in neutral and at decent trade levels. The next week beef holiday, valentine’s day just a bit over a week away and those ribeyes and tenderloins will be a good value. I don’t say that often.
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Wings and random breasts are inching higher which is really a good thing. It is not healthy for the industry when suppliers are losing money on every bird they produce which has been the case. Production is pulling back just enough to push the market slowly higher. Chicken is still a great value so I would still be featuring chicken. The weekly doom and gloom of Avian flu report… 9 new reports over the last week, 304K birds affected. Total birds lost 58.2 million birds. We will be looking at the northern migration in a few weeks and this virus has never really left from last year. We could be in for two years of avian flu loses, just something to keep watching.
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So this market is turning out like I expected, just about three weeks late. Ribeyes and tenderloins and giving ground, even though they are historically high for January they are heading in the right direction… down. Strip Loin and Short Loins are picking up that market pricing moving higher along with grinds. Chucks and rounds seem to be just churning steady right now. Production last week was back to non-holiday totals with 661K head harvested up from the holiday short week of 563K head the week prior. The next big beef holidays are Valentine’s day and St Patrick’s Day. With this very late movement lower on middle meats the bump for Valentine’s day we usually see should be pretty muted.
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Beef is finally starting to look like I would expect a couple weeks ago. They didn’t move much, but I’ll take a move lower on ribeyes and tenderloins as a start. Finally. I think they have a long way to go in only a few short weeks before Valentine’s Day props up pricing again, but for right now, ribeyes and tenderloins are moving lower. Strips on the other hand are moving higher just as expected. Chucks have given up a bit of recent ground but I think only temporary. Rounds still showing pretty strength. The leaders up right now are strips and ground beef. This pattern with lower middle meats and higher end meats should continue at least a couple more weeks. Last weeks harvest was a third holiday shortened week with only 563K harvested up from the prior week’s 547K head. Keeping inventories tight and trying to get buyers to chase product.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/3209
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
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This time in January we should be seeing substantial discounting on ribeyes and tenderloins. Not seeing any movement lower. The premium holiday items are holding onto all those gains in December. With the discounting on those middle meats we traditionally see increases on chuck, rounds strips and especially ground beef. We are seeing those traditional seasonal increases. With a total harvest of 547K head last week, down from the prior week’s 566K and this week will also be a holiday shortened work week sellers are showing they are confident they can move product at these reduced volumes. I’m still holding onto a move lower for Ribeyes and tenderloins, but lets look for this move toward the end of the month. An interesting start to 2023.
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So arctic temperatures and bad weather across the country took my expectations and just stomped on them. Holiday shortened beef production was 566K head down from the previous full week of 629K head. We have another week of two weeks of shortened work weeks which will be making product tight over the next couple weeks. Already those anticipated drops in Tenderloins and ribeyes are not happening. I’m going to push them out a couple weeks in expectation. I still think we have some down side here, just not as soon as I anticipated. On the other side, loins, rounds, chucks and especially grinds are moving up daily. With lower cattle numbers to process the pressure to make money on every head increases. Product is going to be tight and I think too expensive for January. I’d buy just what I need and wait for opportunities to break.
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Thanks for joining me today, three days before Christmas and nine days to a new year. Let’s start with looking at beef this week.
Beef production last week was down to 629 thousand head harvested compared to the previous week 652 head. Production will be holiday shortened even more the next couple weeks and I do expect January to start out at lower weekly slaughter levels. Next week is it for high prices on ribeyes and tenderloins, squeeze out as much profit as possible before the big down turn come January. Expect steady increase now on strip loins, chucks, rounds and grinds to make up for those lower middle meat prices.
Episode Sources
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
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Looking at pork, and bellies had a roller coaster week up and down but as of yesterday, back down to close at $84.58 up from last week at $80.49. At these levels the only questions is how much to buy, not if to buy. The rest of the pork complex is similarly low and offering great value. I often say pork is a value protein to offer and it is so true right now.
Episode Sources:
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
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Chicken's been a bargain for several weeks and to my surprise, we were not at the bottom of this market. Wings moving lower again. This is not a healthy market. Packers losing money on every bird they sell but I don’t see this turning just yet. There are deals to be had on chicken, breasts, tender, wings. Packers just need to keep the meat moving. Production is lowering but only slightly, not enough to make a real difference just yet. Now to the weekly avian flu update. 19 new reports affecting 323K birds, almost all turkeys. Total birds lost this year, 53 million. And the beat goes on…
Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
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Avian Flu continues to plague the poultry industry. For the last week, 15 new reports affecting 1.9 million birds. Total birds removed from the food supply this year: 52.4 million, and we are not done. As the southern migration continues bird flu is now being reported in Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. The CEO of Hormel, Jim Snee, which owns Jennie O turkey expects bird flu to affect supply into the second half of 2023 – no relief anytime soon.
Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mexico-detects-h5n1-bird-flu-farm-near-us-border-2022-10-31/
https://avinews.com/en/two-avian-influenza-outbreaks-detected-in-colombia/#:~:text=Maria%20Camila%20Alfaro-,Avian%20influenza%20continues%20hitting%20the%20poultry%20industry%20worldwide.,Colombian%20Agricultural%20Institute%20(ICA).
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-animal-health-emergency-after-bird-flu-outbreak-2022-11-30/
https://www.just-food.com/news/hormel-foods-ceo-jim-snee-braces-for-volatile-high-cost-new-year/
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The focus is on turkey for next week. There are turkeys to sell, but the price is pretty stiff. Avian Flu has hit turkey hard this year and unlike to previous outbreak in 2015 this one is not over yet. The avian flu numbers for the week, are relatively modest with 9 new reports affecting 50K birds. Total birds affected so far this year, 50.3 million. While turkeys were hit very hard, chicken down the southern seaboard were relatively virus free and there is way too much chicken on the market right now. For the second week in a row eggs sets are below last year so numbers will ease in the coming weeks. Right now chicken is “cheap” and plentiful and I don’t see that changing at least the next couple weeks.
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This beef market is moving up pretty aggressively and with production holding up pretty strong with 668K head harvested last week, down only 5K from the week before it seems to me a bit early. Next week everyone is talking turkey. Grading is not great, with premium products at premium prices and short on the market. Select grade and commodity choice product are showing much more available. I think we are in a few more weeks of increasing markets so if you need product, buying sooner is better than waiting. The chuck complex and grinds are leading the way up in this market.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/crop-progress-report-11722
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Beef production was 673K head for last week up 13K head over the 660K head from the week prior. Liquidating continues in some breeding stock which will be affecting production over the next couple years as the herd size is reduced. With expensive feed and drought moving animals to harvest instead of continuing to feed them is often the decision. Even with heavy production this market is moving higher. Chuck Rolls are oversold and demanding strong premiums. The rest of the chuck complex is moving higher as well. Rounds seem to be pretty well balanced and with ground beef are holding steady and at reasonable price levels. Tenderloins and ribeyes are already getting into holiday pricing levels though I’m hearing we won’t see too much more upside to these cuts but no bargains to be had either. Strips are still the value in middle meats but they are moving a bit higher as well. This is the time of year where buying sooner is better than waiting, you will pay more money later. We should have this market on a steady increase right into early December.
Episode Sources
http://www.cheesereporter.com/pricesbutter.htm
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.agfax.com/2022/10/24/mississippi-river-barge-traffic-continued-to-struggle-as-active-and-intensive-discussions-occur-on-black-sea-export-deal/
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The Chicken market is what I’d almost call a collapse. Production is continuing strong, demand is not. Egg placements continue to inch up each week. The hatch rate is inching up too putting more chickens on the market. Wings, breast, tenders are all down again for next week. Take advantage of these low prices but this is not a healthy level for the producers. Now the weekly bird flu numbers. 18 new reports since last week. Total birds removed from the food chain 168K, mostly turkeys. total so far for the year, 47.7 million head. Turkey shortages will be with us well into 2023.
Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://www.barchart.com/
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
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Beef production was 664,000 head for last week, same as the week prior. Chucks and rounds have found some support with pricing more up a bit. Roast weather is coming soon and retail feature will be pulling on these items.
Chicken is declining again. I thought we might be close to the bottom but apparently we have a bit farther to go. Wings are down, breast and tenders down as well. We are getting to the unhealthy lows where the packers lose money on every bird that is not an incentive to keep producing. I’ve seen lower markets thank this, but not with $7 corn.
Beef prices continue to move lower, but probably not for too much longer. Other than tenderloins, it's a great time to feature beef. Looking at poultry, chicken wings are still a great value, while breasts and tenders continue to go lower. As with beef, it's a great time to feature chicken. Avian flu continues to spread, totaling 421,000 birds removed since last week. This brings the total number of birds removed from the food supply to 47.1 million. Most new cases are turkeys, making this holiday season pretty tight with supply. For grains, corn is down from last week, soy oil is down, and wheat is holding steady. Pork continues to be a good value, with pricing very similar to last week. Also a great menu feature. For dairy, barrel is up three, block is up two, and butter is up seven, a new record high.
Happy Episode 100!
This year’s avian flu continues to spread. Since last week add 14 new reports affecting 249K birds, most of them turkeys and a total so far of 46.7 million birds removed from the food supply. Southern migration of wild birds from Canada going south continues to spread the virus. We may well see cases continue to expand through the fall. I’ve nothing encouraging to say about turkey other than if you have, value it, and if you can buy it, do. Looking at chicken and it is the same message the last couple weeks. Wings are steady, and still a good value, boneless breasts and tenders continue to move lower. Production continues to creep higher every week and with weekly hatch rates now consistently over 80% more product continues into the market. Expect chicken to continue to be a good value moving into fall.
This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up. With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again. This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million.
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
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Episode Sources
https://www.science.org/content/article/we-re-nervous-deadly-bird-flu-may-be-north-america-stay
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%. That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%. These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle.
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Episode Sources:
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/22218-a-stunning-reversal-in-harvest-expectations
Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend. BUT – it is a trend. This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys. Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year. Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great way to finish the year. Expect an already tight supply to get tighter and prices move higher. So far this year there have been 43.8 million birds removed from the food supply. Looking at chicken, were the availability is strong, no avian flu reports, plenty of product, good pricing.
Episode Sources:
https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/113248-bacon-report-2022-all-sizzle-no-fizzle?oly_enc_id=9442E4975623E5T
https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-turkey-prices-could-make-for-a-fowl-thanksgiving-11662117778
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Grains Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35. Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping. There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand. Something I will be watching. Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alarming. The soy harvest could be similarly affected by weather as corn. Winter wheat harvest is done, summer wheat harvest is in process and running behind. International issues may push prices higher but right now, it looks pretty steady.
Episode Sources
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother!
On Tuesday bellies dropped $48 and with yesterday’s close at $144 has dropped $56 since last week’s close of $200. Elevated cold storage numbers, hows that for a turn around from last year… plus expected increasing production as the weather cools and packers are dealing with the classic issue, sell or smell it. This is definitely a buying time. I don’t know how long we will see this market but I’m betting we’ve got a few weeks to secure good value product. The rest of the pork complex is following the lead of bellies but not to the same dramatic drops. Pork will be a good value for the next few weeks, at least.
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
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Episode Sources:
https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/hog-production/pork-bellies-plummet-drag-cutout-lower?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGGc6JmbpYmadAuAkEf3rK-9Vq1C43IjB0b0ldyqyDt1ER-o9RzCmVhdWz6J8POq7hzWzzXhd9e9i8krghUHbURqs-LBNDT7eFx9vCcpT-0HJvYrHc
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/106082
Continuing to look at Avian Flu, only two farms reporting cases over the last week, with 130 birds affected. I’m about done with Avian Flu so would like it to please just go away. The damage is done, the recovery in process. If we don’t see any flare-ups of new cases in the fall we should be looking good come January.
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. Episode Sources:https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.barchart.com/
Avian Flu adds Nevada to the list of states this week, but only 200 new cases were reported since last week. Chicken production continues to move upward. Chicken prices are moving lower though, including breasts and wings. Cattle production was lower this week. Strip loins and chucks are showing good demand while ribeyes, tenderloins, and grounds are holding steady. Pork bellies and butts move seasonally higher, but loins continue to be a great value. Overall, grains continue lower, but hot and dry weather could slow this down. Winter wheat harvest is 63% complete and spring wheat is in the ground. No big changes in dairy, as milk production slows down.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Pork bellies set a new record high on Tuesday closing at $242. Yesterday’s close came off that high to close at $215 which is up from last week’s $209. This is expensive territory for bacon. If you have to have it, I’d buy just what you need, but I’m not expecting this market to hold for too long.
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932. Episode Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/1/first-grain-ship-leaves-ukraine-what-where-and-why-this-matters
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
Continuing to look at Avian Flu and we added a new state this past week as Florida makes the 38th state with reported cases, including the Florida operation only 450 new cases reported. Looking forward to a week with no new cases. Chicken market is tanking. Like dropping like a rock and back to costs we are used to seeing, dropping several dollars per case next week. Production is still steady but demand has fallen off. I think we’ve got a few more weeks of these lower prices. Time of a wing special. Turkey continues to be expensive with tight supplies. Buy chicken.
Episode Sources:
- https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
- https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
- https://www.urnerbarry.com/
- https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
- http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
I keep hoping Avian Flu is on its last leg and new cases are certainly down, but over the last week 42,000 head were reported infected, mostly turkey operations in Utah. That brings our total number of birds lost to over 40,100,000. Maybe this week’s nationwide heat wave will help end the new cases. We hold at 37 states with reported cases. Looking at chicken and QSR and foodservice demand are lightening up while pricing for wings and boneless breasts continue lower. Tenders seem to be the only chicken part holding value. Expect chicken to continue to return to the value protein we’ve depended on.
Episode Sources:
- https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
- https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
- https://www.urnerbarry.com/
- https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
- http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Episode Sources:
- https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
- https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
- https://www.urnerbarry.com/
- https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
- http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now. Only 306 new cases reported since last week. the last 13 reports have all been small backyard farms, the last major producer report was almost a month ago on June 9. We have a few very tough months to get through as turkey and egg producers look to restock their farms and get production going again. Recovery will take pretty much the rest of 2022. Egg prices are starting to show the strain of losing all those birds. Even with inflated egg prices, eggs continue to be a good value for protein. I do think we will see continued increases on eggs. Chicken production is holding steady and the market is pretty quiet this week. Coming out of the holiday with lower production numbers should pause a lower market for a week or so but I still see the overall chicken market moving lower.
Episode Sources:
- https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
- https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
- https://www.urnerbarry.com/
- https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
- http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now. Only 350 new cases reported since last week so we stand at about 40 million birds lost to the virus.. Turkey products and egg products will continue to be tight to unavailable for several months. Chicken production is holding pretty steady but demand is not. Boneless breasts continue to lower prices again this week, they have more downside to come. Wings are holding steady and tenders are finally starting to follow breasts lower but still seem pretty inflated to me.
Episode Sources:
- https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
- https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
- https://www.urnerbarry.com/
- https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
- http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html
Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com
Find us on Social Media:
- YouTube
Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.
Shop our exclusive line of delicatessen products, Saval Deli- still made in Baltimore, Maryland, since 1932.
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected. For the first time since the initial cases reported in February, we have gone a whole week with no new cases reported. The damage done hold at just over 40 million birds removed from the food chain. We will feel the repercussions from this for months to come, the two industry segments most affected are chicken egg layers and turkeys. Expect very tight supply and increasing pricing for the next few months. The southeast home to most of the chicken producers was minimally affected and after the recent run up in boneless breast prices we continue on the way down with lower prices again this week. I think there is some more downside to this slide, as now chicken is finally back below ground beef pricing. Still, we have more room to slide. Wings are holding steady as demand is being well met by current production
While the news is indicating that there is an upcoming beef shortage, you may want to take that with a grain of salt.
Beef Production was very strong after the holiday shortened week with 674,000 head harvested, compared to 603,000 the week prior.
Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected. New cases for the week only 170 birds so we stay right around 40 million total birds removed from the food chain. The next couple weeks of warmer weather should help limit any more spread of the virus. At least lets hope so. Pricing for this week sees boneless skinless breast continuing lower and I expect we have a few more weeks of this market moving lower. Interesting that tenders are holding their value while breasts continue lower. Wings are hanging steady as production is well meeting demand.
Episode Sources:
https://www.agweek.com/news/north-dakota-makes-a-jump-on-soybean-planting-usda-crop-progress-report-says
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
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Let’s look at some markets and start again with Poultry and the continuation of the Avian Flu outbreak.
Poultry: Avian Flu now has been detected in 36 states same as last week. After last week only reporting 600 birds this week we had a large egg laying operation in Colorado depopulate 1.9 million birds pushing the overall total to just shy of 40 million birds. My hopes for this outbreak to be over look a bit premature right now. Looking at boneless skinless breasts I’m finally seeing chicken breasts have peaked and slowly moving just a bit lower. Tenders are still well sold and holding their value but we seem to be heading lower on breast meat.. finally. Chicken production is up slightly over the last week, demand is still strong from the QSR segment but looks like. Wings are holding steady and continue to be the value in the chicken market.
Beef: The holiday shortened production week had 603 K harvested down from the prior week 644K which is a pretty strong production number for a holiday week.There is product available and the market seems pretty steady. Rounds and chucks are steady, loins and tenderloins have the most current demand and are steady to slightly up. Ribeyes are not demanding the summer attention we’ve seen in previous years. Even though we are well below pricing same time last year beef is not holding retail demand. I don’t see much to change a well supplied market with moderate demand, I’ll call this market just hanging out.
Pork: Bellies crashed yesterday all the way down to $138 almost $35 dollars down from last week’s $173. This is not something typical this time of year. Bellies can bounce around and be unpredictable so let’s take advantage of this current low market, I don’t think this will last. Loins and butts continue pretty steady for a third week, still fairly elevated but for the time of year we seem to be doing Ok. Ribs on the other hand after chilling for a couple weeks are moving higher again. All these pork prices should have a summer peak in late July or early August.
Grains: Corn closed at $7.97 up from last week’s $7.52. Continued war in Ukraine is holding up product for much of the world. New crop planting is nearly done with 94% of the crop in the ground. Export demand continues strong so no relief on corn prices any time soon. Soy beans hit an all time high this week which has not translated to soy oil.. yet. Still holding steady for a second week though Canola is getting tight, and outpricing soy now. Some suppliers are allocating canola oil hoping to stretch to new crop. New soy crop is 78% planted up from 66% last week so a few more weeks planting hand hoping the weather cooperates. Wheat continues to struggle, spring wheat planting is at 82% which is about 15% behind expectations. Winter wheat harvest is proceeding crop quality is not good with only 30% harvested so far rated good to excellent which is about 20% below expectations. Flour is in tight supply and expensive. That is not changing any time soon.
Dairy: Through Thursday, Barrel is down 1, block is up 2 and butter is up 10. Butter has hit a high not seen since September of 2015. Strong export demand and competition from ice cream makers has this market moving up. I’m hearing we aren’t done yet but not sure how much higher we can go.
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We are seeing the wind-down of Avian Flu with only one state, Georgia, added this week making the total number of states 36. Three farms in Iowa have had their quarantine lifted and are starting to repopulate their operations. Chicken breasts and tenders continue higher with no stop in sight. Wings remain the bargain here. Turkey is scarce and expensive. Specialty eggs are in tight supply. Beef production is strong and there is product available, but prices are moving slightly higher. Pork prices are holding steady, but production will decline in the heat of the summer. Corn and soy planting have picked up the pace and are almost meeting the five-year average. With wheat still being difficult this year, stay well ahead of your flour needs.
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Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states same as last week. Just over 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 24K for the week, the smallest total in weeks. Most affected are egg layers which accounts for about 76% of all avian flu cases. Turkeys have been hit hard as well, availability will be impacted on turkeys and turkey products. Looking at current markets and the march higher on boneless chicken breast continues. Wings are now moving higher as well, still the bargain in chicken though.
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Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states adding one more state to the list. Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 100K for the week. One contact in the turkey business told me we just need 7 straight days over 70 degrees and the virus will die. Again, the damage is done but hopefully we are at the end of this outbreak. Not to be a downer but I did see some speculation the virus will return come fall when the weather gets cool again and give us a double whammy. Looking at current markets and chicken breasts are still moving higher and setting new records. With breast meat now costing more than ground beef and pork loins and butts, I’m hard pressed to see this market continue much higher, but with QSR demand holding strong and production only showing small increases I don’t see any relief either. Looks like we were right on wings having hit bottom, they are moving higher again. Still a bargain compared to breast meat but I think we’ve seen the bottom for this run on wing prices.
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Avian Flu now has been detected in 34 states adding two more states to the list. Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up about 1 million for the week. We are seeing slower growth each week and as I understand it this virus is not hardy in warmer weather. Heading into summer we should see things calm down, but the effects of this outbreak should not be minimized. Egg layers and turkey producers have been severely affected. Expect turkey products to be tight and expensive, and I’m not even talking about the holidays. Looking at chicken and this song is the same. Breast meat is higher still and no sign of stopping. Wings maybe are about as low as we are going to see. I’m not expecting wings to move higher just seems we may be at the bottom here. Production numbers are not increasing to keep pace with the strong demand. Things could be getting tight on breast meat in the next few weeks. Hard to buy ahead on fresh product but I would not recommend running this inventory tight.
BEEF Beef production continues strong with 657K head harvested last week, up from 649K the week prior. This strong production is keeping beef available. But weaker than expected Easter demand and early looks at Mother’s Day seem disappointing I don’t see this market roaring into Memorial Day but I do think we will see some deals and a bargain or two to keep the product moving. Other than ground beef which is pretty steady, all the other cuts are moving lower, some faster than others. Middle meats are coming off a bit, rounds and chucks are down as well. While still relatively expensive, beef is not pushing higher right now.
PORK. Let’s look at pork and bellies are finally back in reasonable pricing territory. Yesterday’s bellies closed at $136 down from last week $154. A month ago we were at $189. Time to buy. Butts and ribs are moving higher, export demand is not strong at present but this time of year harvest is reduced and we usually see an increasing market. As I always say.. the pork loin is the value.
Grains Corn closed just over $8 at $8.01 up from last week’s $7.97. Corn planting continues well behind schedule with 22% of the crop planted compared to the 5 year avg of 50% at this time. Not much changed from news out of South America with less than hoped for production. Demand for US corn will continue and pricing isn’t coming down any time soon. Soy is also running behind with 12% planted compared to the 5 year avg of 24% at this point. South American harvest is about complete with again, less product than hoped for. Indonesia has not removed their ban on exports of palm oil continuing to push soy higher. Fortunately we did break the three week streak of ever higher market prices, but there continues to be high demand for soy. Wheat and same story as corn and soy with the spring wheat crop, 27% in the ground vs expectations of 47%. Winter wheat crop is rated at 29% good/excellent and 39% poor/very poor compared to last year at 49% good/excellent and 18% poor/very poor. So a poor winter wheat crop, word India is having a poor crop this year as well, late planting spring crops, and we find ourselves again with wheat pricing moving higher and availability staying tight.
DAIRY – Through Thursday, Barrel is up 4, block is down 5 and butter is unchanged. Milk seems to be adequate to meet current demand both cheese and butter. Typically we see increasing markets in late spring but think any increases will be muted and pretty moderate.
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There is expectation that Indonesia will reopen their palm oil exports, which will be a big help, but I don’t see soy coming back any time soon. A look at wheat and markets are moving higher again on poor plantings and very strong demand. I know I say it every week, but stay well ahead of your flour needs.
Episode Sources: https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.agweb.com/markets/market-outlooks/3-reasons-corn-prices-are-staying-high?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGEL8VL_0u2qVCn7vCWlUbkpdhPY4YwXte7u0ZRsHxBf8cuvAFsxpqipqq3AFgifUuZAekAmiLee-edMiYgk8bilx4sBLjvgi33z6T0X5vFhrK2NMI
https://www.card.iastate.edu/research/biorenewables/tools/hist_eth_gm.aspx
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Avian Flu has now been detected in 29 states , with no additional states for the week.
The big two sectors hit are egg layers and turkeys. Usually those operations affected will be out of commission about six months, so this is not a short term issue.
Corn which closed at $8.18 up from last week’s $8.11. This is a really high market.
Episode Sources: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/?locale=en
Support the show (https://savalfoods.com/employment/)
Avian Flu now has been detected in 29 states, three more added since last week.
31 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply adding another 6 million birds since last week. Shell eggs and turkeys seem to be the most affected so far. We did not see the annual after Easter drop in shell egg prices and I would not expect to see that any time soon. On the current market I’m sounding the same song, boneless skinless breasts and tenders continue higher still while packers are struggling to find homes for wings. Import bans on US poultry are popping up as infections continue so what is being produced will be staying in the country.
Corn closed over $8, up to $8.11 for the first time this year up from last week at $7.79. We are into silly season when weather reports move markets. Snow and rain have delayed planting in the northern states and lower scheduled acres are already making some people a bit skittish.
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Soy oil has moved to it’s highest trade level of the year. Strong export demand and biofuels help keep pushing soy higher. Wheat is tight, and expensive though I’m told come June or July we should see relief in availability of flour. I’m not believing yet, but we will keep watching.
Episode Sources: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/environment/2022/04/13/bird-flu-2022-easter-eggs-prices-up-inflation/7275942001/
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html
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Lets look at a few markets together and I’m starting again this week with Poultry because Avian Flu continues to grow.
Poultry As of yesterday avian flu has been detected in 24 states just one more than last week. So far 23 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 6 million birds for the week. Hardest hit is Iowa and egg laying facilities. Of the 23 million birds affected, 13 million have been in Iowa. While any detection is difficult when egg layers are infected not only do we lose the bird but also all the eggs they won’t be laying. Shell eggs a week before Easter are typically as high as they get, so let’s hope we see some relief over the next couple weeks though we are in a very different situation than usual. During the 2015 Avian flu outbreak the total bird depopulation was about 50 million birds. Warm weather will slow the virus so we probably have several weeks to go. Demand for chicken continues strong and breast meat continues higher. Wings continue to amaze me with lower numbers again. I know it is really early to say this, but turkeys for the holidays are lining up to be very short and very expensive.
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As of yesterday, avian flu has been detected in 23 states, up from last week at 17 states. So far 17 million birds have been removed from the food chain, an additional 4 million birds for the week. . Detection of avian flu in Minnesota is quite concerning as 20% of the US turkey population is raised in Minnesota. As with last week, shell eggs are on a tear moving higher again for next week. We have two weeks to Easter, hopefully we can get by the holiday and see these prices ease. Boneless chicken breasts continue to inch higher on strong retail and QSR demand. Wings may be about at bottom for this market so if you are inclined and have the room, would not be a bad thing to load in a few cases. Breasts running at a premium of over $.70/# over wings is extraordinary.
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If you are in the local market I do hope you will be joining us at the Saval Foodservice 90th anniversary celebration this Monday at Maryland Live Casino & Resort. I’ll be there doing what I do best… talking.
Avian flu has now been detected in 17 states with over 13 million birds removed from the food chain. That doubles last week’s 6 million birds which doubled the prior week’s 3 million birds. This is not an encouraging trend. The first impact you will see is the move up in shell egg pricing. Typically we see increases heading into Easter but nothing like this. Pricing will be up 40-50% next week and we still have a three weeks to the holiday. Looking at chicken and breasts have held steady a couple weeks but pricing will be moving higher again. Tenders will follow the similar course of breasts. Wings lower again. Seems to be plenty of wings available.
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Episode Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/u-s-egg-prices-rise-as-deadly-bird-flu-strikes-ahead-of-easter
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/avian-flu-outbreak-in-the-u-s-what-to-know-right-now
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1eE2FDL6Iwy9szQLuwi-rD0AwSuncNipk&usp=sharing
https://urnerbarry.com/
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/spain-trucker-strike-sparks-supply-chain-tensions-01647530107
https://cataniaoils.com/
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Corn closed yesterday at $7.56 up from last week’s $7.29. Remember when we were worried about $5 corn? Yeah, us too.
Episode Sources:
https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/103718 Avian News | https://www.barchart.com/ | https://urnerbarry.com/ | http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm | https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ | https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports | https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items | https://www.statista.com/topics/6263/poultry-industry-in-the-united-states/
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Ukraine is the #1 supplier of sunflower oil in the world. Sunflower oil is popular making crackers, cookies, and pastry applications. If sunflower isn’t available these manufacturers will move to what’s available.
Now looking at Avian flu, a sixth commercial turkey flock has been identified with Avian flu in Indiana. We now have 9 states with identified cases and three of those states the cases are in commercial flocks, Indiana, Delaware, and Kentucky.
Episode Sources:
https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/103617 - Avian Flu
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://urnerbarry.com/
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/030122-feature-russian-invasion-disrupts-ukrainian-sunflower-oil-industry
https://www.barchart.com/
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Beef processors are keeping the plants humming, last week’s production of 663K head was up from the prior week’s 659K.
Bellies closed at $214 yesterday, up from last week’s $209.
Breasts now cost more that wings. That usually doesn’t last long then breasts out price wings, so either wings will move up again or breasts will come down. My bet is wings will move higher into March. The Avian Flu watch continues with another turkey farm in Indiana having to “depopulate” – what a word, all 14,500 birds due to Avian flu infection. Still not a “crisis” but certainly worth keeping an eye on.
War has a way of making commodity markets jumpy. All of em. Corn closed yesterday at $6.89 up from last week’s $6.53. Weather in South America, war in Ukraine, all make American corn more valuable. Unfortunately it means it costs more to feed the animals we eat. No good news here. Soy is moving up as well, three straight weeks of increases and I’m hearing expect more to come. Wheat is the one taking off due to conflict in Ukraine. I’ve been saying a while stay ahead on flour, lets really keep that advise, Ukraine and Russia account for about 29% of the worlds wheat exports and right now that commerce is in jeopardy.
Finally Dairy. Thru Thursday Butter is actually down $.10 but I think we need to prepare for some higher prices on butter again. Exports for American butter are up and export demand is strong. Look at Block up $.03 and barrel up $.01 through Thursday. This is shaping up to be an expensive dairy market for 2022.
Episode sources:
https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/
https://www.urnerbarry.com/
https://www.barchart.com/
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/2022-hpai
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items
http://www.cheesereporter.com/pricesbutter.htm
Support the show (https://savalfoods.com/employment/)
Thursday, February 17, 2022
Back with the latest Foodservice and Hospitality market update is veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson from Saval Foodservice.
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Take a seat bacon purchasers- it's a "buy what you need time".
We’ve been looking for this market to move lower the last couple weeks and finally seeing it. Last week’s harvest of 639K head was slightly down from the prior week’s 643K but with pretty mild demand the available product to demand is getting a bit out of balance. Chucks, rounds, and thin meats are all moving lower, ribeyes and tenderloins finally showing weakness, loins are holding about steady. Ground beef is the only segment still moving higher but I think that may top out over the next week or so. I think we are in a buy time over the next couple weeks, I don’t think this soft market will last but a few weeks as everyone has an eye on spring and improving demand.
Pork production continues to lag with production down 3% from the prior week and 8.5% behind last year. Bellies closed yesterday at $179 up from last weeks $161. I originally thought we would be at the peak by now but now I’m thinking this inflated belly market may have some legs. For the time being, I’m on the sideline with buying bacon in this market, just buy what you need. Butts and loins both moving higher as well. Spring usually see increase in pork but that may be muted this year since… well, we are already there.
What an interesting chicken market. Breast and tenders continue to be tight and moving higher. Wings are high, no great bargains to be found, but they are available, very different from last year. So plenty of wings for Super Bowl and March Madness coming in a few weeks. Chicken producers seem to be intent to meet current demands. As with so much these days though, labor and transportation present the biggest challenges. Whole chickens are where the value is if you have the labor talent and ability to sell the whole bird.
Start with corn, current market is $6.53 up from last weeks $6.29. Same story, bad news from South America, good export demand, limited carryover from last year. Expect corn to stay expensive, meaning feeding animals stays expensive.
Soy started cranking up last week and it hasn’t stopped this week. we are at the highest market since October last year. I’d stay ahead on soy products as I don’t think there will be any real breaks coming soon. Wheat was holding fairly steady for a couple weeks but this week sees both Hard Red winter wheat and Soft Spring Wheat are moving higher again. If you are a big flour users I’d stay will ahead on my needs.
Finally a look at dairy and butter is done moving lower after three weeks of decline and is up $.08 through Thursday’s close. Block is up $.03 and Barrel up $.05. We are in a pretty high dairy market now above pricing for all of 2021. Traditionally we see dairy move higher into spring so increases may be a bit muted with already inflated market.
Enjoy your wings watching the Super Bowl.
Sources:
http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports
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That groundhog can kiss… oh.. Never mind. Let’s look at markets.
Beef: Production numbers continue to get better with 643K head harvested last week, up from 636K head the week before. I think with this increased production and Valentine’s Day being on a Monday this year, lack of demand is going push this market lower. As I said last week, I don’t think we will see lower prices before Valentine’s day but beef demand is lowest in February for the whole year. Middle meats are still holding strong and loins are moving up, but I think this complex will be moving lower in the next couple weeks. Until them, buy only what you need. Ground beef is still in overdrive followed by rounds and chucks. We should be about ready to break, but not just yet.
Pork: Pork bellies continue higher closing at $161 yesterday, higher than last week’s $154. We are in a much improved position with bellies in cold storage from the end of 2021. The new reality of the higher costs at retail have made a dent in sales. I think we will see a buying opportunity later this month, but right now we are still heading higher. Overall pork production is running behind last year, we may not see much relief in pork pricing though the first half of the year. Expect strong pricing to continue.
Chicken: Boneless skinless breasts continue higher still. This time of year has not seen pricing like this since 2009. While demand for breast meat continues wings are moving up too. February is always a high time for wings, this year will be no exception. On an encouraging note, the hatch rate broke 80% for the first time since April of last year. Finally. This is good news. Labor and transportation continue to challenge chicken production but available raw material is increasing. With QSR driving the breast demand, don’t expect anything to come off anytime soon.
Grains: Lots going on in corn and especially soy. Let’s talk corn first, yesterday closed at $6.29 down from last week’s $6.34. Lowered expectations on the south American crops are keeping demand on US corn strong around the world. Lower than expected exports held things a bit in check so I think unless something drastic happens we are in the $6 corn world for the foreseeable future. Soy ran up this week to its highest price in six months. Biofuel demand, that bad news out of South America and higher palm oil prices all had influence on soy prices. We are in better position than we were last year, but I think we could see another run up on soy. Looking at flour and it is two different stories. Hard red wheat continues to move higher while soft spring wheat seems to have topped out for right now. I’d still stay ahead on flour needs.
Dairy: Finally let’s look at dairy, butter gave back $.30 last week and another $.13 this week so butter is back in “normal” range. Really don’t see much more down side to butter market. Block and barrel however are both up $.11 through Thursday’s close. The domestic dairy herd is down 123K head since last May suggesting we may have strong dairy prices well into the year.
OK, I’m done. Thanks for listening and Lets do it again next week.
Market Trends with Tracy is a production of Saval Foodservice.
Hosted by Tracy Anderson, Veteran Purchaser & Merchandiser.
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The end of January is here and February is a short month.
Beef Production numbers continue to lag due to COVID and labor issues. Last week’s harvest of 636K head is heading in the right direction, the prior week’s final was adjusted down to 618K head. Light production is pushing prices higher pretty much across all beef items. Grinds continue to lead the way higher but chucks and rounds are moving up strongly too. Middle meats are moving higher as well. We have Valentine’s Day coming in a couple weeks. Pricing on middle meats will not be going down before then so it would not be a bad idea to work ahead if you know your needs for the holiday. Once we see better harvest numbers I do think we will see this market move lower but I’m not seeing that just yet.
PORK. Pork bellies continue higher closing at $154 yesterday, higher than last week’s $147. I still think we have a few more weeks of this climb and then we should see some buying opportunities on bacon. The big news this week is a California court has delayed the implementation of Prop 12 the animal welfare proposition passed by California voters in 2018. California ag now has 6 months to develop guidelines then 6 months to implement so push this off at least another year. Pork product is increasing slowly from prior weeks but still well behind last year. Expect strong prices on pork to continue.
CHICKEN – Boneless skinless breast meat continues to be in demand and driving chicken prices higher. Look at QSR for this driving up of breast prices. Wings are in demand and holding their value at least into March Madness. Unlike last year though, there are wings available. I don’t see chicken coming off the current track through winter.
GRAINS –Commodities continue to reflect the overall strength in the economy. Corn closed yesterday at $6.34 up from last week’s $6.20. South America continue to be a concern with too much rain in one area and drought in another. With energy prices on the rise demand for ethanol and bio-diesel fuel also push commodities higher. Soy started up last week and continues higher this week. Flour does seem to have plateaued for the time being so let’s take that as a win.
DAIRY – Finally a look at Dairy, butter did top out last week and as often happens with a market running up that fast, the new pricing cannot be sustained. Butter has giving back $.30 of the $.53 run up since Monday. Similarly block is off $.09 thru Thursday close and Barrel is down a healthy $.15. I don’t think we will see much more downside to this market but much better pricing is coming soon.
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COVID is hitting beef production pretty hard. The last two weeks harvest has been at 620K head which is not sufficient to meet demand. Pricing is mover higher to reflect the scarcity of product. Ground beef usually moves up this time of year but it is in overdrive right now. Chucks, and rounds are showing seasonal strength but we are also moving higher in middle meats, in the dead of winter, the lowest demand time of the year. Until we see production numbers increase I don’t see this changing.
PORK. Pork bellies closed at $1.47 up just a bit from last week’s $145. I think we will see bellies with a steady move higher for the next few weeks then some lower movement once we get into February, but not just yet. Labor challenges are having an impact on production and product availability. Those items that take extra time in the plant, ie boneless butts vs bone in butts or boneless loins vs bone in loins will not be in abundance and will carry a strong premium to their less processed counterparts, hence you’ll see increases in boneless butts and loins while bone in product will be holding pretty steady.
CHICKEN – Chicken production is holding up pretty well. Demand for breast meat continues very strong and pricing is moving higher still. We are into serious wing demand season with football heading toward its season end and college basketball heating up. The only way to look at wings is the market is up. Demand continues to be there for chicken and compared to other proteins the cost advantage continues.
GRAINS –Commodities overall are heating up as inflation concerns filter to commodities. Corn closed at $6.20 yesterday up from last week’s $6.14. South American crop news continues to be pessimistic the corn and soy crops. Soy is moving higher quickly. We may be in for another round of price increases from heavy soy using industries. Concerns for wheat are reflected in the Russia – Ukraine situation and possible disruptions for Black Sea shipments. Commodity grains will be worth watching as inflation, weather and politics all combine to cost us money.
DAIRY – Finally a look at Dairy, I thought we might have topped out with the recent butter run up, but no, there is more to go. So far this week butter is up another $.11. Fewer dairy cows, a light cold storage inventory and all the increased expenses to operate are holding butter prices higher. In conjunction with the butter prices, expect higher prices on heavy cream and cream cheese (if you can find it). I’m still holding hope we’ve hit a current peak on butter. Cheese however has peaked. Thru Thursday, Block is down .14 and barrel is steady. Cheese prices are pretty high now but we should see this is move lower for the next couple weeks.
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If you've been to the grocery store in the past few days, the effects of Omicron/covid related staffing shortages are as clear as the empty produce shelves. On the foodservice front however, those shortages are not as severe, but certainly are there. Listen to the latest episode now!
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It's the first report of the new year, and beef is starting to look "normal". Overall the beef complex is acting as expected, while pork bellies continue to climb. Per usual, pork loins are the value choice in that segment. Listen to the full episode and feel free to leave us a comment on Instagram or Twitter @savalfoods .
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Happy (almost) new year! This week we're taking a look at some meat prices that don't match historic trends. One notable call-out is that Chicken Wings are at their lowest since February 2021. However, they are the highest they have been in December since 2009.
Market Trends with Tracy 12/29
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Well it's been a crazy year, so we're making our predictions for what might happen heading into 2022.
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Clarified Costs | Market Trends with Tracy 12/9
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Holiday Roundup | Market Trends with Tracy 12/3/21
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Ribeye Relents | Market Trends with Tracy 11/27We're back with an episode we recorded on Wednesday 11/24/21 to give you an update on the market!
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**Corn's Chemical Dependence | Market Trends with Tracy 11/18
As we head into the Holiday Season, we're seeing some typical and not-so-typical market moves. Pork Belly dropped last week- as surprising move, while Dairy is keeping to the normal holiday increases. Grain is experiencing a chemical conundrum- the apparent very complex fertilizer market is skyrocketing, forcing farmers to choose between corn, and the less dependent soy.
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How High Can Prices Go, If They Were Already High | Market Trends with Tracy 11/11
Here to break down what holiday pricing might look like, after an already expensive year is Tracy Anderson.
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Welcome To The Holiday Season | Market Trends with Tracy 11/4
First up – Thanksgiving in just three short weeks so let’s talk about turkeys. The one time a year they get the center stage. There has been quite a bit of news coverage about turkeys this year so lets look it with facts. Correct, there are fewer turkeys to be had this year than last year. Production is about 6% below last year. There are turkeys but if you need a small birds, you should already have them in your freezer or buy them as soon as you can. There will be more birds over 20# available and fewer small birds. So no need to panic there won’t be turkeys. Yes, they cost more this year, about $.30/# at wholesale. So plan to spend more money on turkeys these year but there will be birds available for the holiday.
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We All Go A Little Mad Sometimes | Market Trends with Tracy 10/28
"– What a week in bellies. Since last week bellies went up $16 to peak at $173 on Monday, now two days later another move down to yesterday’s close of $143. So down $18 from last week. Just shows the market is volatile. "
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The Real Price of Spring Wheat | Market Trends With Tracy 10/21This week a few highlights include some strangeness in the dairy market, and some relenting on Ribeyes.
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Flour Prices On The Rise | Market Trends With Tracy 10/14
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Production Problems | Market Trends With Tracy 10/7
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Supply Chain Struggles | Market Trends With Tracy 9/30
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Rise Of The Ribeye | Market Trends with Tracy 9/16
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