Dantes Outlook Market Podcast: Recent Episodes
Damanick Dantes
Interviewing experts in global markets and investing. Our goal is to help both individuals and institutions realize global market opportunities and the factors that drive them.
Conversations will focus on global market events, trading and investing strategies, risk management, and wealth. We'll also dive into decision making and the psychology behind investing.
This podcast is for educational purposes only, and is not investment advice.
Latin America Equities Outlook
- Why Latin American stocks are outperforming global markets
- Structural vs. cyclical drivers of emerging markets performance
- Is a long-term rerating underway?
Macro Trends Driving Latin America Markets
- Interest rate cycles across emerging markets vs. the U.S.
- Impact of U.S. dollar trends on Latin American currencies and equities
- Commodities super-cycle: energy, copper, lithium, and agriculture
- Nearshoring and global supply chain shifts benefiting Mexico
Fundamental Drivers: Valuation & Earnings Growth
- Why Latin America trades at a discount to developed markets
- Earnings growth across financials, commodities, and domestic sectors
- Country-level opportunities: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina
- Domestic demand, credit expansion, and underpenetrated markets
Quantitative Signals & Market Positioning
- Factor rotation: shift away from U.S. mega-cap dominance
- Investor flows and under-ownership of Latin America
- Market breadth, momentum, and earnings revisions
- Role of FX stability in supporting equity multiples
Key Risks to Watch
- Political and fiscal risks in major economies like Brazil
- Commodity price volatility and dependence on global growth
- Geopolitical risks and external shocks
Investment Strategy & Portfolio Positioning
- How to gain exposure to Latin America equities
- Country vs. sector vs factor-based allocation
- Why active management matters in emerging markets
- Identifying alpha opportunities in a high-dispersion region
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
In a rapidly shifting global landscape marked by geopolitical tension and increasing fragmentation, wealth management is no longer just about markets. It’s about optionality.
In this episode, Damanick Dantes, CMT, founder and portfolio manager at Dantes Outlook, sits down with Dalton Skach of Henley & Partners to explore how ultra-high-net-worth individuals and families are thinking beyond traditional portfolios by integrating global mobility, jurisdictional diversification, and long-term planning into their wealth strategy.
The conversation covers recent market and geopolitical developments, insights from global mobility trends, and how aligning where you invest with where you live can enhance resilience across economic cycles.
For global entrepreneurs, family offices, and investors navigating liquidity events, this episode offers a timely perspective on building a truly global wealth framework.
Visit www.dantesoutlook.com for more information on our total portfolio solutions. And our friends at www.henleyglobal.com for information about global citizenship and residency. Our team can connect you.
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Key Topics:
- The original Turtle experiment and lessons from Richard Dennis
- Why and how trend following focuses on small losses and large winners
- Volatility-based position sizing and risk management discipline - Diversification across equity markets, currencies, commodities, bonds, and individual stocks
- Current market dispersion and what it means for systematic strategies
- The psychological challenge of sticking with trend during whipsaws and drawdowns
- The growing role of ETFs in managed futures
- How advisors can size and integrate trend-following sleeves within broader allocations
Key Takeaways:
- Trend following is agnostic — it adapts rather than predicts.
- Diversification across a broad global universe improves opportunity and resilience.
- Proper allocation and manager selection matter more than short-term performance.
- No strategy is perfect — understanding drawdowns and behavioral discipline is critical.
Learn More:
- Jerry Parker & Chesapeake Capital: www.chesapeakecapital.com
- Dantes Outlook's RIA & OCIO Services: www.dantesoutlook.com
- Dantes Outlook Substack for ongoing research and portfolio insights: www.dantes.substack.com
Disclaimer: The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Episode Highlights:* Why 2025 delivered strong returns across most asset classes — except crypto * Bitcoin and Ethereum’s negative YTD performance in context * Key technical breakdowns in Bitcoin using weekly and monthly trend models * The erosion of the “digital gold” narrative and rising equity correlations * Why extreme fear isn’t enough to signal a bottom * Macro regime insights: inflation vs. growth sensitivity in Bitcoin * Gold’s resilience and role as a portfolio stabilizer * How Dantes Outlook’s Bitcoin/Gold rotation strategy navigated the year
Research & Data Sources:
- Market and on-chain data from Glassnode
- Internal quantitative models from Dantes Outlook
- Academic research on asset behavior across macro regimes
Happy holidays from Dantes Outlook!
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Topics Covered:
- November performance recap for the Moderate Global Balanced Portfolio
- Active equity selection and regional tilts
- Fixed income positioning: intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries
- YTD performance vs. benchmark and risk-adjusted results
- Bitcoin–Gold Rotation strategy: why gold dominated signals this year
- How aggressive clients can use the rotation sleeve
- New absolute-return breakout strategy and its early outperformance
- How global diversification and trend-based discipline helped narrow tracking error
- Where to find the full allocation breakdown (Substack)
Key Highlights:
- Portfolio outperformed the global 60/40 benchmark by 30 bps in November
- Equity sleeve remains 63% of the portfolio, with strong regional contributions
- Fixed income tilts added to monthly returns
- Bitcoin–Gold model returned 41% YTD, with reduced crypto drawdowns
- Absolute-return strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 by ~8% since launch
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Key Topics* The cyclicality of trend, value, momentum, and other styles * Why Dantes Outlook blends trend, relative strength, and dispersion * Managing risk during the crucial mid-30s to 40s accumulation years * Sequence-of-returns risk and why it is the “silent killer” of retirement portfolios * How rolling return analysis helps investors avoid misleading conclusions * The case for global diversification beyond U.S.-centric portfolios * Why non-U.S. equities may be entering a long-term leadership cycle * Maintaining a risk mandate you can stick with across market regimes
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Key Topics Covered Why major equity indices sit far above trend * Understanding rotations and style cycles * Lessons from past extremes (2021, dot-com bubble, 2008–2021 growth dominance) * Why valuations matter for decade-long returns * The risks behind overspending, AI optimism, and mega-sized corporate debt deals * Insights from the Association for Corporate Growth conference in NYC * Innovation vs. investor objectivity: avoiding hope-based investing * How the Dantes Outlook's framework is adjusting factor exposure * Why global value is gaining relative strength * Why combining value + quality (“QARP”—Quality at a Reasonable Price) smooths returns * Quality as a low-volatility style that resists market drawdowns * Why shifting entirely to deep value today would be a mistake * Creating a global blend* across different economic cycles
Investor Takeaways Markets move in cycles—don’t chase the latest swing. * High valuations today imply lower long-term expected returns. * A blended factor approach can avoid “value traps” and speculative bubbles. * Quality + value helps build a durable core with opportunistic upside. * Patience and discipline* drive long-term returns—not market gamification.
Best For* Long-term investors * Advisors and CIOs refining factor exposures * Listeners seeking plain-language explanations of market cycles * Anyone rethinking portfolio positioning in a late-cycle environment
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
In this episode:
- Why extreme bearish sentiment often precedes market recoveries
- The role of relative strength in identifying global equity opportunities
- How Dantes Outlook is adapting its allocation framework amid shifting leadership
- The importance of staying systematic and globally diversified through volatility
For full portfolio updates and performance insights:
👉 Access the Alpha Capture Portfolio Report on Dantes Outlook Substack (subscribers only)
Disclaimer:
This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Dantes Outlook LLC is a registered investment advisor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment decisions can change based on market conditions.
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Topics Covered:
- High-beta vs. low-volatility stock performance
- Why narrow market breadth can lead to leadership shifts
- Signs of improving fundamentals after a mild earnings recession
- The impact of new small-business tax cuts on growth and jobs
- The case for quality stocks in a late-cycle environment
- Global opportunities in value and emerging-market equities
Key Takeaway:
Rotation and selectivity — not just momentum — will shape the next leg of this market.
Visit us at dantesoutlook.com
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
In This Episode:
- Why Treasuries are having their strongest October in years.
- The significance of the negative stock–bond correlation and what it signals for portfolios.
- Inflation and labor market trends supporting potential Fed rate cuts.
- How gold, palladium, and other metals fit into a late-cycle allocation.
- Our portfolio adjustments: longer-duration Treasuries, selective pro-cyclical tilts, and risk management strategies.
- Why loose financial conditions continue to support speculation — and how we’re positioning for the next phase of the cycle.
Resources & Links:
Subscribe to our Dantes Outlook Substack for full market intelligence updates and model portfolio insights.
Email our team: damanick@dantesoutlook.com for private client access and portfolio consultation.
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
In this episode:
Key findings from the Q3 2025 Market Intelligence Report
Why asset dispersion is narrowing and what that means for diversification
Where our models see strength—select metals, emerging markets, and duration
The implications of a neutral dollar and extended U.S. equities
How we’re positioning portfolios for selective exposure and flexibility
Referenced in this episode:
Dantes Outlook Market Intelligence Report (Q3 2025)
Substack: https://dantesoutlook.substack.com
Learn more: https://dantesoutlook.com
The information presented is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice nor as a recommendation of any particular strategy, allocation or investment product: before making any investment decision, you should seek expert, professional advice and obtain information regarding the legal, fiscal, regulatory and foreign currency requirements for any investment according to the laws of your home country and place of residence. Investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of principal. Any forward-looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results may vary from any statements or forecasts.
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Topics Covered:
– Introduction: A new perspective from Riyadh and Dubai
– First impressions of the Middle East’s financial centers
– Inside the CMT Global Investment Summit: sentiment, structure, and surprises
– Regional vs. U.S. focus: where investors see opportunity
– The Dantes Outlook framework: mapping the market and business cycles
– Challenging assumptions about the Middle East’s global role
– Key insights investors should be watching
Visit us at DantesOutlook.com
- Abdulelah’s background and pathway to technical analysis
- Mentorship, the CMT Association, and Riyadh chapter goals
- Growth opportunities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
- Cyclicality, sector exposure, and local vs. global dynamics
- Using relative strength and market breadth in regional analysis
- Adjusting time frames and macro considerations
- Vision for growing a regional professional network
- Looking ahead to the CMT conferences in Riyadh and Dubai
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Email damanick@dantesoutlook to request a meeting.
- Why copper/gold and silver/copper ratios may be sending different signals this cycle
- Positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting in rates and FX
- Duration strategy during rate-cutting cycles
- Active vs. passive performance in the bond market
Elena Zeng on Chinese equities:
- Hong Kong momentum rebound vs. mainland lag
- Relative strength of China vs. EM equities
- Domestic liquidity, share buybacks, and foreign inflows
- Why China remains a tactical allocation, not a core holding
Visit us at DantesOutlook.com
Email Damanick@DantesOutlook.com to request a meeting
Topics Covered
- Setting the global context: the $7 trillion daily FX market and its drivers
- The advantages of technical analysis in high-liquidity markets
- Rule-based systems and algos: strategies for 24/5 trading
- Key FX trading approaches: trend, mean reversion, breakouts, session-based, and news-driven
- Dubai’s financial rise: DIFC, regulation, and the time zone advantage
- The role of the CMT Association and Women in Technical Analysis in shaping the future of finance
Upcoming Events
- September 28 – CMT Riyadh Community Meeting: a premier forum for market professionals across Saudi Arabia and beyond.
- Register here
- September 30–October 2 – CMT Global Investment Summit in Dubai: an elite gathering of fund managers, strategists, and investors decoding cross-asset trends and innovations in global markets.
- Register here
- Women in TA dinner
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
U.S. Valuations: Deutsche Bank research shows that historically, high valuations have led to weaker 10-year returns, raising questions about long-term U.S. equity performance
AI and the Mag-7: The current rally is highly concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks, creating a potential disconnect between pricing and fundamentals.
Global Equities & Currencies: State Street reports that the 9% year-to-date decline in the U.S. dollar has boosted international returns, with Europe benefiting most
Sector Leadership in Europe: BlackRock highlights resilience in banks, aerospace & defense, luxury, and semiconductors, while remaining cautious on healthcare
Diversification: AQR stresses the importance of liquid diversifiers, like trend-following strategies, in reducing risk and improving long-term returns
Portfolio Insights:
- Dantes Outlook Alpha Capture ETF Model Portfolio gained 2.33% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 30 bps.
- Key contributors: cyclical sectors, emerging markets, inflation beneficiaries (INFL), and Eurozone/U.S. bond exposure.
- Year-to-date results: Moderate +6.54%, Aggressive +32.67%, Conservative +9.45%
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com to learn more.
Email damanick@dantesoutlook.com to request a meeting.
Rates & Fed Policy: Markets are overly optimistic on rate cuts; inflation remains sticky, keeping the Fed cautious (DeepMacro).
Equity Positioning: Systematic funds are heavily tilted toward equities, with allocations at or near record highs (MenthorQ).
China Equities: Narrowing gap between H-shares and A-shares signals opportunity; liquidity and household cash provide strong support (HSBC).
Market Breadth: Short-term indicators are overbought, but long-term breadth remains healthy (Dantes Outlook).
Fixed Income: Attractive yields unlikely to return to pre-pandemic lows; belly of the curve (5–6 year maturities) offers a balance of income and rate risk (Vanguard).
Municipals & Credit: Municipal bonds and investment-grade credit stand out as high-quality, inexpensive options.
Equities: Active managers struggle against the Magnificent Seven; indexing provides a strong foundation, while Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare offer selective momentum opportunities (Morningstar, Dantes Outlook).
Takeaway: Stay disciplined, revisit bond allocations, and avoid overstretching for yield or risk.
Market Breadth: NYSE advancers outpaced decliners 4-to-1, suggesting resilience beneath the equity rally (SentimenTrader).
Macro Signals: Inflation remains domestically driven; Fed unlikely to cut quickly. U.S. dollar regains strength versus peers (DeepMacro).
Dantes Outlook Positioning: Trimmed active tilts, maintaining preference for U.S. equities while adding emerging markets. Funded by profits in gold and inflation hedges. Launched tactical semiconductor strategy based on momentum signals.
Bond Market Evolution: Portfolio trading volumes in U.S. corporate bonds surged 54% in H1 2025, boosting liquidity and efficiency (Barclays).
Investor Behavior: Morningstar’s “Mind the Gap” shows investors underperform funds by ~1.2% annually due to timing mistakes.
Forward-Looking Markets: Historical data shows equities often rebound after major payroll revisions, underscoring how markets anticipate economic shifts (Fidelity).
Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com
Topics Covered:
Portfolio construction in today’s macro climate — balancing risk, correlations, and tracking error.
Credit market health — Morningstar DBRS and Proskauer data show improving leverage, coverage, and default rates.
Bond market reset — Deutsche Bank’s historical context on the worst 5-year Treasury returns and forward expectations.
Opportunities in core bonds — PIMCO’s view on yields, international duration, and diversification benefits.
DeepMacro model positioning — long USD, contrarian equity overweight, and rates strategy.
Trend-following under pressure — why CTAs are lagging in 2025.
Emerging markets strategy — Victor Zhou on activeness, tracking error, and the under-researched alpha potential in EM small caps.
Key Takeaways:
Dollar correlations are a driver of our U.S. equity overweight.
Credit fundamentals are stronger, with default rates falling.
Bond valuations have reset, creating better entry points, but real returns may remain modest.
Trend-following struggles highlight the need for multi-strategy systematic approaches.
In emerging markets, higher activeness and small-cap allocations improve alpha opportunities.
References:
Morningstar DBRS
Proskauer Private Credit Default Report
Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research
PIMCO Fixed Income Outlook
DeepMacro Model Positioning
State Street Emerging Markets Strategy Research
This week’s episode covers:
- U.S.–EU trade deal impact and the new 15% tariff baseline
- Margin debt surges—5th fastest rise since 1998 (source: Deutsche Bank)
- Fed and ECB hold steady, but tone remains cautious
- Breadth weakening beneath the surface despite equity highs
- Trimming gold, watching silver/platinum and volatility signals
- July portfolio performance + positioning adjustments
- What we’re watching: CTA trends, EMFX momentum, and central bank shifts
Referenced Sources:
Deutsche Bank Macro Strategy Notes
SentimenTrader Momentum/Breadth Indicators
MRB Partners EM Currency Research
Dantes Outlook internal trend models & analytics
Connect with us to access portfolios:
DantesOutlook.com/connect
This week’s topics include:
✅ U.S.–Japan trade deal and what it means for global risk sentiment
📊 Q2 earnings beat expectations—but growth is slowing
📈 Meme stocks signal renewed retail risk appetite
🏦 Central banks pivot toward holding rates—insights from the ECB and Fed
📉 Vanguard cuts U.S. equity return forecasts; bonds catch up
🌍 DeepMacro flags expansion in emerging markets
📌 Internal perspectives from Victor Zhou and Elena Zeng on portfolio positioning
📈 How Dantes Outlook is adjusting exposures across equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies
🔗 Join our exclusive client and advisor platform:
DantesOutlook.com/connect
Today, we explore global energy through the lens of Russia, the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas. And to the west is Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies. According to some estimates, Russia is earning roughly $500 million per day on oil and another $400 million on gas all together.
But gas flows from Russia to Europe were already declining into the Q4 heating season last year. Flows flattened out earlier this year, and are now ticking downward.
To help us understand the Russia/EU gas market, we turn to Nadia Kazakova, an analyst at Renaissance Energy Advisors (REA). Nadia is an expert in this field with prior roles at JP Morgan and Saxo Bank. She also provides in depth analysis on operating stats from Gazprom, Russia’s majority state-owned energy company.
On this show, we discussed:
- Russia’s importance in the global and EU oil and gas markets
- The buildup of gas fields and a vast pipeline network from Siberia and throughout Eastern Europe
- Gazprom's growing influence on EU gas supply, and its efforts to go downstream to capture additional margin
- The significance of Gazprom's November export cut to the EU, stemming from the Nordstream pipeline debacle
- Supply mix from Norway, Algeria and US LNG
- Expectations for further export reductions from Gazprom, below its annual output target
- The new system of ruble payments – its complexity and implications for sanctions and long-term contracts
- New evidence that Gazprom is already cutting back volumes to non-compliant customers
- Future price stabilization or volatility, and what to monitor going forward
Most price signals have extended into overbought territory, although pullbacks could be temporary over the next quarter. Elsewhere, metals have stabilized and oversold signals could present buying opportunities.
Trading performance was positive in Q1, built on the success of Q4. Short palladium and long soybean oil were the best performing trades, while sharp moves in wheat and oil detracted from overall gains. At times, volatility can lead to frequent or contradictory signals.
Evidently, returns across commodities are not equal. At times, there is wide divergence between sectors such as oil/gas, agriculture and metals. That means the risk of a core long position can be offset with tactical long/short positions in specific commodities.
For now, here is our base-case into Q2:
- The copper/gold ratio, a gauge for risk-on/risk-off, is stuck in a resistance range, similar to what occurred in 2017-2018 when market volatility increased.
- WTI Crude Oil broke above a decade-long resistance level at $105/bbl and faces stronger resistance near the 2008 price high at $147/bbl-$150/bbl.
- The recent decline in stocks relative to commodities is starting to stabilize, although failure to hold a decade-long uptrend indicates further downside in the ratio, especially if bond yields continue to rise.
Visit www.danteesoutlook.com for more info.
In the December podcast, we warned that 2022 could resemble 2018 – a year when the Federal Reserve tried to taper, which triggered a mini stock market crash. And now, we start the year with great turbulence. This time, however, a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical risk emanating from Russia and Ukraine have kept investors on edge.
And of course, the threat of rising inflation lingers. Supply chain disruptions and record low inventories contributed to a surge in prices. But fighting inflation by raising rates comes at the expense of slowing economic growth.
To help us unpack these developments, we turn to Lev Borodovsky, the editor of The Daily Shot newsletter. Geopolitics
Topics discussed:
- Update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its impact on markets
- European energy crisis
- ECB response and inflation expectations
- Commodity price outlook
- Fed policy and inflation/growth
- Expected returns: equities and Treasury hedge
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Feel free to reach out to learn more about Dantes Outlook and our investment strategies here.
Tim explains that carry trades (borrowing at low interest rates to finance higher-yield investments, and assuming market stability), are behind recurring booms and busts. Tim and his fellow authors argue that market crashes are not the result of economic recessions – rather, market crashes cause recessions.
Currently, there is risk of another carry crash, which was in development before the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Commodity rally appears overbought, expect some pullbacks
The commodity price rally appears to be slowing, which could point to lower returns this year. Several overbought signals were confirmed over the past few months, especially in natural gas, which declined more than 30% in Q4. As expected, the dispersion in commodity returns narrowed over the past quarter as earlier declines in metals and agriculture stabilized. The US dollar remains a wildcard, which has strengthened along with commodities over the past few months. Meanwhile, commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar have lagged the upside in commodities.
Trading performance was positive in Q4, which made up for some losses in Q3. Short natural gas was the best performing trade, while a short-term buy in soybean oil detracted from gains. Overall performance in 2021 was positive, although most of the strategy’s gains were realized in the fourth quarter of 2020 around the start of the commodity rally. Recent volatility has led to choppy trading conditions, which means the strategy will be more selective with positions.
Read the full report here
FM Capital Group website
Twitter: faithmight
Lydia's LinkedIn
Show notes
- We discussed Lydia's background in computer science and how she pivoted into trading and investing.
- Lydia started blogging and engaged with a community of traders online.
- She eventually started her own investment advisory firm, FM Capital Group, to apply her analysis and make investment decisions on behalf of clients.
- We discussed the importance of investor suitability and how FM Capital Group blends private and public markets to build client portfolios.
- Lydia talked about her hands-on process to align client expectations with portfolio performance over the long-term.
- Opportunities in Africa's expanding middle class and the robust secondary market, which is often misunderstood.
- "Go into private markets with the aim of making more than one investment in companies that can create tremendous value over the next 10 years," Lydia said. Local investors are already active, and global players are entering the ecosystem.
Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. She is the managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a technical research firm. Here is a brief rundown of our conversation.
- Started with a strong affinity for mathematics given the need for concise analysis – a binary takeaway that can be applied to markets.
- Technical analysis provides a visual element to help understand the markets, driven solely by price action.
- Worked as an analyst under mentors who taught her about different indicators and tools, which she combined in order to provide value as a trader and then later as a researcher. Consistency is key.
- Fairlead uses a collection of indicators to provide buy and sell signals. The real upside is in the uptrend, although certain momentum gauges can determine when trends are accelerating or ending.
- Katie is monitoring initial signs of upside exhaustion in the S&P 500 despite positive seasonal influences at the moment. A higher volatility regime could unfold next year, similar to 2018, a rangebound year which benefitted investors with a more intermediate-term timeframe.
João is a graduate of Babson College where he concentrated in finance. He also completed a venture capital program at the UC Berkeley Haas School of Business. João worked in investment banking at Itau BBA and worked in financial planning at Kraft Heinz. And before Z1, he co-founded Vereda, a start-up providing low-cost, high-quality K-12 education for Brazil’s middle class.
We discussed the origins of Z1 and the importance of financial inclusion, especially for young adults. João also talks about his growth plans for Z1 after a series of fundraising.
WEBSITE: https://z1.app
Access the commodity market report here
The broad commodity complex continues to rally after breaking above a decade-long downtrend. However, underlying returns are mixed, with natural gas, oats, coffee, and cotton leading the way higher, while industrial commodities such as platinum and palladium sold off in the third quarter. Indicators suggest the divergence in returns could narrow in the months ahead as leaders appear significantly overbought relative to laggards.
Visit MarketDesk Research to find out more about their service.
Connect with the MDR Team:
Matt Clements
Jon Clements
- Matt discussed his roots in St.Louis, MO and what drew him to accounting.
- We unwrapped MDR's evidenced-based research process and how to filter out market noise.
- Matt walked us through how MDR uses tactical signals to construct model portfolios.
- Lastly, we discussed MDR's favorable outlook on Chinese equities relative to the EM basket and other ideas.
Join the Dantes Outlook LinkedIn page!
For our global audience of traders and investors, I figured we take a step back and learn about the importance of looking at the world beyond your work screen.
Beth is based in Hong Kong and is also a board advisor to the Women in Finance Asia Committee which provides networking and skills based events for men and women in the finance industry.
We discussed the importance of volunteer work, self improvement, and leadership lessons for the next generation of leaders in finance.
Beth's fitness company: https://www.bfit-thewrightway.com
Pathfinders: https://www.pathfinders.org.hk/en/
- A bounce in the U.S. dollar could reduce inflationary pressures into the second-half of the year. However, upside remains limited after breaking a decade long uptrend last year.
- Commodities, including oil and metals are testing initial resistance, while corn and soybeans suffered sharp declines recently. Pullbacks are expected to continue over the short-term, which could provide timely entry points along the broader commodity upcycle.
- The copper/gold ratio, an important gauge of risk-on vs. risk-off, is also testing resistance, but has broken above a decade long downtrend from last year.
- The stock/bond ratio appears stretched, which could trigger some Treasury shorts to unwind positions if volatility rises into Q3.
- For now, the S&P 500 is holding support above the 50-day moving average, led by tech and consumer discretionary stocks. The growth trade should continue as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) drifts towards support at 12.
Full report here: https://www.dantesoutlook.com/reports.html
Cedric and Phil discussed the story behind PTG, current services and types of clients they work with. We also covered technical analysis and how it is used to manage risk across portfolios.
Learn more about our combined trading strategies here: https://www.dantesoutlook.com/trading-team.html
Website: https://www.philthegap.co
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/philthegap/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/philthegaptt/
- The copper/gold ratio is used as a barometer for risk-on versus risk-off. The ratio is now testing long-term resistance, which could signal a pull-back in the reflation trade.
- Equities are still preferred over bonds, especially given a series of relative breakouts in the SPY/TLT ratio. However, it appears that long-duration bonds are deeply oversold, which means Treasury yields could recede over the short-term.
- US growth stocks are oversold versus value stocks, but the broader uptrend is shifting downward. For now, upside appears limited for momentum stocks, particularly concentrated in the tech sector.
- Healthcare and biotech, although lagging in terms of relative strength, have held support on shorter time frames.
- The broad commodities complex has reached our initial upside target (similar to the late 1990s in the Dow Jones Commodities Index). Downside should be limited amid seasonal weakness, and we expect the global economic recovery to keep buyers active at lower support levels.
Learn more about our managed account offerings at www.dantesoutlook.com
And stay tuned for a special guest interview later this month.
GAVIN Group's website: https://gavingroup.ca
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Topics discussed
What happens during the post-athlete transition?
The importance of maintaining a support network on and off the ice
Current challenges facing athletes (salary caps, taxes, pay disparities, deferrals)
Managing financial uncertainty
A glimpse into the hockey industry in Canada - its importance, culture, and what makes an athlete such a unique client?
Matt's current market views (Canadian equities, cannabis industry), and how he balances risk and return
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Visit DantesOutlook.com for updates on multi-asset trading strategies.
Topics discussed:
- History of The Daily Shot newsletter
- Lev's process for finding relevant info and scanning markets.
- Equity valuations and remaining opportunities.
- The reflation trade.
- Pros and cons of rising inflation from both a market and economic perspective. (level vs. speed)
- The Fed's strategy to get ahead of an inflation surprise.
- Implications for the credit market given high corporate bond issuance.
- Inflation outlook for Europe and Japan.
- Economic improvements in LatAm and other emerging markets.
- Benefits from export growth.
- Agriculture markets and other commodities starting the next up-cycle.
- The endgame for QE/MMT/gov debt binge.
- "Forced to continue fiscal expansion in light of massive debt and low yields, but becoming too reliant on this could hammer the economic recovery."
- Speculative environment in cryptocurrencies.
Subscribe to Lev's newsletter at www.thedailyshot.com
Bruce Powers is a trader and fellow chartered market technician (CMT) currently based in Florida. You can interact with him via Twitter or LinkedIn.
He has been involved in the financial markets for over 25 years. Bruce has an active media presence, including a column for Wealth Monitor magazine, where he covered commodities, forex, and global markets, and a separate weekly column for Gulf News, plus many more. And we look forward to his updates on the Dantes Outlook podcast throughout the year.
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Visit DantesOutlook.com for updates on multi-asset trading strategies.
Ideas discussed, heading into 2021:
- TIPS approaching support (inflation protection)
- 10-year Treasury yield in a bottoming process
- Tech shows consistent leadership, but stellar gains are limited
- Energy remains a laggard, but could soon offer value
- S&P 500 consolidating along an uptrend
- Bitcoin is breaking out, similar to 2017
About Cedric
Cedric hails from the Caribbean islands, where he pursued a bachelor of science degree in actuarial science. He then completed the CMT designation while working in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago.
Afterwards, Cedric spent some time in England, where he completed an MBA at the Cass Business School. Back in Trinidad and Tobago, Cedric is currently a level 3 candidate for the chartered financial analyst (CFA) program.
He spent his investment management years working at the largest mutual fund company in the English-speaking Caribbean with about $3bn equivalent in assets under management. There, Cedric performed various duties of investment management including market analysis and portfolio management. He also launched the first tradable passively managed fund in the English-speaking Caribbean.
Cedric is now an investment management strategist at a mutual fund company. And he is also involved in a startup, Phil the Gap, which provides financial and investment advice and education to the people of the Caribbean.
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Visit DantesOutlook.com for updates on multi-asset trading strategies.
Dantes Outlook provides portfolio advisory and trading strategies. On this podcast, we'll interview investment professionals. Our goal is to help both individuals and institutions realize global market opportunities and the factors that drive them.
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