Macro Monkeys: Recent Episodes
Double A
Where macro-economic analysis meets the markets. We discuss timely macroeconomic data and events and the potential impact on financial markets. We are not licensed or qualified advisors. We are monkeys. Not financial advice.
Double A goes solo this week to bring a quick update ahead of the all-important CPI release this coming Tuesday morning. Tuesday's CPI release will be slightly more important than Wednesday's FOMC press conference. Markets touched and are now slightly off key levels, and likely won't move much until Tuesday's release. As equity and bond markets are trying to break down trends, and yields are trying to break lower, the data this week will be the fuel that moves markets to one side of the trend or the other. We are watching, IVX, U.S. Dollar, SPX, and the 10-year yield for a well-choreographed dance later this week.
--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
Despite repeated, and clear articulation from the Fed the consumer has not accepted the idea of higher interest rates for longer. or perhaps, they have been conditioned, by the Fed, to expect all speed bumps in their lives to be smoothed over with fresh and timely intervention? This week our conversation starts with this idea as it related to residential housing expectations, then we dive down a series of related rabbit holes.
--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
This week we discuss the idea that the current bear market rally may be a little long in the tooth, particularly in tech.
We also discuss the yield curve inversion and the financial health of the Euro-Zone
Get your free subscription to Stock Cheat Sheets here: https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/
Learn more about Chaikin Analytics here: https://www.chaikinanalytics.com/
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
By now, we all know October CPI surprised a bit to the downside. The surprise ignited an impressive rally.
However, has the rally gotten ahead of itself? That's the question.
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
This week we talk about positioning ahead of the U.S. mid-terms, and the November CPI print. Thursday's CPI print will likely provide the wind the market rides on in the weeks ahead. Which way will it blow? We then discuss the idea that value stocks could be the new growth stocks, delivering a top-down analysis. Regardless of your opinion of growth vs value, the exercise is worth the price of admission.
If you want to claim your free subscription to Mike's service, visit his Substack: https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
All eyes are on the FOMC this week. In particular the Wednesday Press Conference.
The market has clearly "led off" after the fed leak from last week indicating that perhaps a slowdown and pause in Fed hikes is near. The belief of a less hawkish fed is anything but certain. Will Jerome Powell throw the runner out at the Wednesday press conference? One sentence could do it. However, one sentence could also course the runner to steal one base, and take a shot at another.
Double A and Mike connect briefly to discuss the possible outcomes of the week that lie ahead.
Get your free subscription to Mikes Stock Cheat Sheets here: https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
The Fed "leaked" a story Friday before the open how they ( The Fed) are considering slowing the pace of rate increases. While this prompted a rally in the indices, volatility remained elevated. One might think that such a statement would lead to a significant move lower in volatility. Did the market correctly interpret these comments, or will the Fed need to walk back the "leak" in the days ahead?
Additionally, the yield on the 10-year treasury closed the week above 4% which it hasn't done since 2003. The week ahead brings a wide array of economic data and earnings from some of the biggest names in the market.
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
Following a higher-than-expected headline CPI number, and higher-than-expected core CPI number, equity markets ended the day 2% higher. Not at all what most expected. Or is it? We discuss possible reasons for the unexpected move following the CPI release. We also discuss commodities' relative strength and the ongoing volatility and challenges in the bond market. We wrap up the conversation with a quick explanation of why the spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates is much higher than the historical norm.
Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macromonkeys/message
Equity markets are bouncing along the bottom awaiting a key inflation indicator. Meanwhile, the Fed and its member Fed-Heads are speaking regularly and creating additional headwinds. The Consumer Price Index for the month of September is due Thursday before the open. Meanwhile, energy is back in the conversation after a month or so of consolidation. Bonds have clearly broken down, however, don't dismiss the possibility of an oversold bounce.
Mike's Cheat Sheets can be found here: https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/
We have discussed markets on nearly a daily basis for more nearly 15 years, in all of that time Double A has leaned bearish, and Mike Bullish, we suddenly find ourselves in a curious case of role reversal. This week we combine discussions with our Macroeconomic discussion followed by a look at global ETFs using the Chaikin Analytics platform for our website ChaikinPoweruser.com. What is Chaikin Analytics? Chaikin Analytics is proprietary software that ranks and filters stocks and ETFs based on fundamentals and a proprietary system we like to quant-a-metrics. We have been "Chaikin Power users" for over a decade. Chaikin Analytics is a piece of software Mike and I both use and have demonstrated on our website " ChaikinPowerUser.com for more than a decade. The software has helped both of us develop systems and stay mechanical. Enjoy!
This week we discussed last week's CPI release and the components that led to a higher-than-expected reading. We also look to the week ahead and the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday 9/21. The market appears to have "baked in" a 75bps hike, it's the statements and comments that we will have to listen very closely to for any sign of continued hawkishness or, possibly, dovishness. We do acknowledge that it is ridiculous that the world hangs on every passing word from an unelected official conducting monetary experiments in real time. Still, it's the world we live in. To conclude Mike and give our expectations for the week in both the S&P 500 and the $TNX( 10-year treasury yield).
You can follow Mike's "Cheat-Sheets" and relative strength work here: https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/
In the jungle this week, we talked briefly about the August jobs report. A report that likely does nothing to sway the Feds planned course. We also talk about the increasing relative strength of commodities relative to the market and the weakening consumer. We wrap up the episode by identifying what we find important to watch in the week ahead.
Find Mike's free analysis here: https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/
We talk about the Fed's hawkish message from Jackson Hole, WY ( 8/26/2022), the equity market sell-off, and the curious reaction from the U.S. bond market. We also discuss the strong U.S. dollar and if inflation has been dismissed prematurely.
https://aaronmontell.com/blog.html
https://stockcheatsheets.substack.com/